Cornerstone Government Affairs 2022 Election Analysis

DISCLAIMER

Cornerstone Government Affairs assembled the following report to help clients interpret the implications of the 2022 midterm elections. As you know, this has been an extremely uncertain and unusual election cycle. At time of publication neither chamber has been called by the Associated Press, and many races remain up for grabs. We are aware that some information in this report may quickly become dated, and we will update this document periodically.

We write with the assumption that Republicans are likely to win a majority in the House of Representatives. Because we may not know who controls the Senate until after the Georgia runoff on Dec. 6, we offer insights into both a Democratic controlled and Republican controlled Senate. We look forward to discussing these results with you in detail as the landscape becomes clearer in the days and weeks ahead.

Nov. 10, 2022 (Version 2, 12:30 p.m. ET)

ELECTION OVERVIEW

In the modern era, midterm elections are a referendum on the party in power. The party that holds the White House has lost congressional seats in every election except in 1934, 1998, and 2002. On Tuesday, Nov. 8, all 435 House seats and 35 of the 100 Senate seats were on the ballot, as were the Governorships in 36 out of the 50 states. Most races across the country were called late Tuesday night, though some in the House and Senate will not be decided for days.

At time of publication of this report, Republicans are on track to regain control of the House of Representatives for the first time since 2018, by very slim margins. The outcome of the House elections will not be known until all votes are counted and several toss up races are called. The Senate is still undecided.

KEY TAKEAWAYS



Republicans regained the majority in the House:

o 209 Republicans

o 191 Democrats o 35 yet to be decided 

The majority in the Senate is still undecided: o 48 Democrats o 49 Republicans o 3 yet to be decided  Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R CA) is likely to be the next Speaker of the House, but a thin majority is a complicating factor. 

It is certain many issues resonated with the electorate and, with an election this close, the importance of any one issue can seem decisive in hindsight. Structural factors such as the first midterm of a new administration, rising inflation and interest rates, the broader direction of the economy, further polarization of the electorate, the weakening of confidence in democratic institutions, and former President Trump’s active involvement the last couple weeks and in candidate selection during the primary campaigns all played a central role this cycle. Key issues like the aftermath of Dobbs, rising crime rates, inflation, and public health concerns all played a significant role as well, particularly in the final months of the campaigns.

A decision by Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D CA) on her own future will determine Democratic leadership in the House.

This election cycle clearly showed the divided nature of modern politics. In the midterm runup, lawmakers and independent or bipartisan commissions across the country redrew maps of congressional districts prompting partisan clashes and litigation with Democrats and Republicans arguing the legality of each side’s actions. One of the biggest subplots in this election cycle has been the number of candidates and voters openly expressing a lack of confidence in the nation’s democratic processes. Ahead of the midterm elections, 42% of Republican voters said they believe the contests will “definitely” or “probably” be free or fair, compared with 85% of Democratic voters who said the same. Officials say they are prepared for contested elections, recounts, and more than usual litigation.

Almost every election produces legal challenges, but most have historically come after Election Day. As a harbinger of a potentially contentious post election period, the runup to the 2022

midterm elections had more than 100 lawsuits and legal challenges filed before voting commenced on Nov. 8. Adding to this mix an estimated surplus of 42 million mail in ballots nationwide roughly a 40% increase over the 2018 midterms presents the ingredients for election challenges and allegations of fraud or stolen elections.

The 118th Congress will be seated on Jan. 3, 2023. The departure of members ranging from freshmen to long tenured members of Congress will result in new congressional leadership, new compositions of House and Senate committees, and correspondingly new legislative priorities and perhaps even some new procedures. Beyond legislation, congressional oversight of the Biden Administration is likely to play a pivotal role among the new Republican membership’s priorities. In the short term, the bigger question will be how the interpretation of Tuesday’s results and the pending change in control of the House and potentially the Senate will be viewed in the halls of Congress and how that will impact the environment surrounding the pending lame duck session.

In the aftermath of the election, officials in the White House, Congress, and the respective party headquarters are scrutinizing results to determine what motivated voters. How they read the results will go a long way toward framing debate in Washington and across the nation. It will also set the stage early between the parties for the 2024 presidential campaign.

The ability of Congress to achieve a productive legislative effort in the 118th Congress, given the results of the elections, is now the principal focus of discussion. Although it might initially appear that the next two years of governing are structurally condemned to gridlock, there are prospects for constructive action. First, Republicans are now charged with passing bills, even if subject to a presidential veto. Second, slow movement in Washington is likely to continue to fuel the trend of increased power and action in the states. While the headlines may illuminate conflict over collaboration, Congress and the Administration will undoubtedly advance multiple agendas through the committees and regulatory bodies.

Finally, there is a prospect that deadlines, expiring provisions, and debates over the implementation of recently enacted policies may drive some constructive developments on issues such as energy, trade, taxes, health, and regular spending. This Congress may also take a fresh look at some immigration related issues and pursue a return to relatively more regular order on appropriations bills. The central question remains, will there be some compromise, or will the upcoming session be dominated by gridlock? Only time will tell, but make no mistake, the 2024 Presidential election season is officially underway.

U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

OVERVIEW

At time of publication of this report, the Republicans are on track to regain control of the House of Representatives for the first time since 2018, ending two years of Democratic control in Washington and ushering in a new era of divided government. Democrats overperformed expectations, holding on to a number of competitive seats and losing the majority by a narrower margin than expected. The new Republican majority will be very focused on executing both their legislative and oversight agendas with an eye towards positioning the party for success in the 2024 elections. Executive Branch officials will quickly face subpoenas and oversight hearings on a wide range of issues in the new Congress.

KEY TAKEAWAYS



Republicans captured the majority and will confront the Biden Administration.

 Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R CA) is likely to be the next Speaker of the House.

The midterm elections were largely a referendum on President Biden and the economy. Republicans have been traveling the country asserting that Democrats' policies are to blame for rising inflation, high energy prices, and a slowing economy. Additionally, Congressional Democrats' use of two reconciliation bills to enact trillions of dollars in new spending became a major argument by the Republicans as wasteful government spending and they emphasized a need for Republican control of the House. Democrats primarily amplified a pro choice and pro democracy message in an effort to turn out its base, using the recent Supreme Court decision in the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization case and Republican candidate quality in some races to their advantage.

The new Republican majority will attempt to stymie President Biden's agenda, while also conducting significant oversight of the Administration. Expect the Afghanistan withdrawal, COVID 19 response, southern border issues, and flow of federal dollars to all be high on the oversight priority list, with the conservative wing of the party pushing for even more aggressive tactics, like impeaching the Department of Homeland Security Secretary. House Republicans will look to move quickly on their legislative and oversight agendas as the 2024 presidential hopefuls will likely start jockeying for the position very early in the cycle.

The 118th Congress will look different than the previous Congress. The House Republican Conference has continued to recruit diverse candidates and will once again grow the number of female members in its ranks. With a slimmer than anticipated majority, House Republican leadership will have to corral both moderate members and members of the conservative wing. On the Democratic side, the narrow margin in the House will give moderates significant leverage in any bipartisan legislating. While there might be some room for bipartisan dealmaking over the next two years, expect the divided government and looming 2024

elections to significantly hamper the ability of Congress and the Administration to find common ground.

REPUBLICAN LEADERSHIP (MAJORITY)

Republicans will hold their leadership elections on November 15, with the remainder of their organizing conference to select the Steering Committee and committee chairs scheduled to occur over the ensuing weeks. Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R CA), who has been a significant fundraiser for his colleagues as Republicans worked to take back the House, is likely to be the next Speaker of the House. Rep. McCarthy only needs the support of a majority of his Republican colleagues to win the internal leadership election for Speaker; however, he will need the support of 218 of his colleagues on the House floor on Jan 3, 2023, to become Speaker. Given the slimmer than anticipated majority for House Republicans, McCarthy may have to enter deal making mode with the more conservative wing of his Conference to secure the votes necessary to become Speaker.

Current Republican Whip Rep. Steve Scalise (R LA) is expected to ascend to Majority Leader, and Rep. Elise Stefanik (R NY) is expected to remain in her role as Republican Conference Chair This leaves the race for Majority Whip as the most contested leadership race with three members vying for the number three spot in House Republican Leadership: Rep. Drew Ferguson (R GA), currently the Chief Deputy Whip; Rep. Jim Banks (R IN), currently chair of the Republican Study Committee; and Rep. Tom Emmer (R MN), currently chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC). All three members have a base of support within the Conference, which will likely keep this race close and could make it the first House GOP leadership race to go to a second ballot in quite some time. Ferguson will argue that he has the most experience whipping votes, which is critical with a tight majority. Banks will make the case that he is the most conservative candidate, particularly given his leadership of the RSC and close ties to former President Trump. Emmer will attempt to carry the momentum of leading the NRCC the last two cycles when Republicans won back seats and ultimately regained the majority into the Whip job. The final leadership race to note is for NRCC Chair, which is between Rep. Richard Hudson (R NC) and Rep. Darin LaHood (R IL).

DEMOCRATIC LEADERSHIP (MINORITY)

As the dust settles post election, all eyes are on Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D CA) to announce whether she will seek another term in leadership as Minority Leader or step down from her leadership post. Both Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D MD) and Majority Whip Jim Clyburn's (D SC) futures in leadership will be significantly impacted by Rep. Pelosi's decision. It is worth noting that should Reps. Hoyer and Clyburn cycle off leadership, both would have the option to return to the House Committee on Appropriations, where they have retained their seniority.

A new generation of Democrats have already begun laying the groundwork for leadership bids should Rep. Pelosi and her lieutenants announce the end of their leadership tenures. Members eyeing the top leadership spot so far include Democratic Caucus Chair Hakeem Jeffries (D NY) and Rep. Adam Schiff (D CA). Look to see whether Reps. Hoyer and Clyburn also strive to

remain in leadership. Assistant Speaker Katherine Clark (D MA) and Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D WA) have expressed interest in the second ranking position of Minority Whip, with Democratic Caucus Vice Chair Pete Aguilar (D CA) potentially interested in running for the Assistant Minority Leader position (if the position is resurrected) or Democratic Caucus Chair. Look for Rep. Joe Neguse (D CO) to potentially express interest in the Democratic Caucus Chair position, while Reps. Joyce Beatty (D OH), Madeleine Dean (D PA), Debbie Dingell (D MI), and Ted Lieu (D CA) are likely seeking the Vice Chair slot. Finally, at the time of publication of this report, Reps. Veronica Escobar (D TX), Adriano Espaillat (D NY), Chrissy Houlahan (D PA), Dean Phillips (D MN), Nikema Williams (D GA), and Lauren Underwood (D IL) have or are expected to declare their candidacy for Co Chair positions of the Democratic Policy and Communication Committee (DPCC). Rep. Lizzie Fletcher (D TX) is also expected to run for the leadership position designated to an individual who has served five terms or fewer. Democrats have not yet scheduled internal elections at time of publication of this report, but are likely to make an announcement by mid November with the elections to be held after the Thanksgiving holiday.

LEGISLATIVE/POLITICAL AGENDA - MAJORITY

House Republicans will be focused on a combined legislative and oversight agenda that builds on the arguments they made in the lead up to the midterms, namely that Democratic policies and spending are to blame for the slowing economy and high prices facing Americans. Combating inflation, lowering energy prices, and increasing the defense budget while cutting non defense spending will all be legislative priorities for House Republicans. The oversight agenda will focus on issues like the Afghanistan withdrawal, energy policies, the federal government's COVID 19 response, and the situation at the Southern border. Many of these legislative and oversight priorities are captured in the House Republicans' "Commitment to America," which they released in late September. Expect this to be a topline guiding document that Republicans will work to follow as they build out the agenda for the 118th Congress.

The 2024 elections will loom over the party as it waits to see who will announce their intention to run for President and when. Former President Trump, Vice President Pence, Governor DeSantis, and a host of other governors, senators, and former cabinet secretaries will command a great deal of attention in the first quarter of next year. Republicans will look to shore up key gains they made in seats that President Biden carried in 2020 to ensure they can keep the House majority in the 2024 election

LEGISLATIVE/POLITICAL AGENDA MINORITY

House Democrats will celebrate more positive results than expected and will need to quickly assess the results to determine what motivated voters to hold key competitive seats and which tactics ultimately led to the loss of others. With a slim margin on the horizon, Democrats will work to shore up unity in their caucus to deny the new majority significant legislative advancements and work to position themselves for success in 2024. Watch for a more vocal moderate bloc emboldened by new and returning Blue Dog Coalition and New Democrat Coalition members and expect the caucus to deploy its most talented messengers on social issues such as reproductive rights, gun violence, and immigration reform. Democrats will also go on the offense against Republicans who won seats carried by President Biden and tie them

to the more conservative wing of the Republican party with the hope that they can win these seats back.

House Democrats will also continue to work alongside the Administration to promote the implementation of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), the CHIPS and Science Act, and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) with a focus on the localized impact of dollars drawn down from these initiatives

NOTABLE DEFEATS, RETIREMENTS , OR NEW ADDITIONS MAJORITY

At the time of publication of this report, the following Republican incumbents have succumbed to Democratic challengers: Reps. Steve Chabot (R OH), Mayra Flores (R TX), and Yvette Herrell (R NM). Republicans lost some senior members of the House GOP Conference to retirements and bids for higher office, including Reps. Lee Zeldin (R NY, lost race for Governor), Kevin Brady (R TX, retired), John Katko (R NY, retired), Fred Upton (R MI, retired), David McKinley (R WV, lost primary), Tom Rice (R SC, lost primary), and Rodney Davis (R IL, lost primary). Reps. Ted Budd (R NC) and Markwayne Mullin (R OK) were both successful in their races for the U.S. Senate.

NOTABLE DEFEATS, RETI REMENTS , OR NEW ADDITIONS MINORITY

At time of publication of this report, the following Democratic incumbents had succumbed to Republican challengers: Reps. Cindy Axne (D IA), Al Lawson (D FL), Elaine Luria (D VA), Tom Malinowski (D NJ), and Tom O’Halleran (D AZ). Of note, DCCC Chairman Sean Patrick Maloney (D NY) was also defeated by a Republican challenger. Democrats lost several members of the caucus to retirements and bids for higher office, including but not limited to Reps. Peter DeFazio (D OR, retired), Val Demings (D FL, ran for Senate), Ron Kind (D WI, retired), Conor Lamb (D PA, ran for Senate), Stephanie Murphy (D FL, retired), and Tim Ryan (D OH, ran for Senate). Rep. Peter Welch (D VT) was successfully elected to the U.S. Senate. The 118th Congress will include the youngest and first Gen Z Member of Congress ever elected as incoming Rep. Maxwell Frost (D FL) prepares to be sworn in at age 25.

U.S. SENATE

OVERVIEW

The 2022 midterm election is ongoing for the U.S. Senate, with three races yet to be called. Votes are still being counted in Arizona, where Sen. Mark Kelly (D AZ) maintains a modest lead, and in Nevada where the race is too close to call. If Democrats successfully hold the Arizona seat, the balance of the Senate will stand at 49 49 with two outstanding contests set to determine majority control. In Nevada, Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto is hoping to fend off GOP challenger Adam Laxalt. And, as with 2020, all eyes are on Georgia where a Dec. 6 runoff could yet determine the control of the chamber in the 118th Congress.

KEY TAKEAWAYS



Currently, the Senate is split 49 to 48

Republicans/Democrats.  Three races are too close to call: AZ, GA, & NV.  Republicans and Democrats must win at least two of the outstanding races to gain control of chamber 

PA is the only Senate seat to flip thus far moving from Republican to Democratic hands.

Of the remaining outstanding races, all are held by Democratic incumbents and both parties are vying to win at least two of the three to secure a Senate majority. At the time of publication, Republicans have successfully held on to 49 of their 50 seats, and Democrats have picked up one seat with the victory of John Fetterman in Pennsylvania, while holding 47 more.

Predictably, Alabama, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, and Oklahoma's Senate seats all remained in Republican hands, and Vermont in Democratic hands, after the retirement of Senators in those states. Among other closely watched races, the incumbents prevailed in Colorado, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin.

With the potential for the continuation of the 50/50 party split in the Senate, Vice President Kamala Harris could be called upon again in her role as President of the Senate to cast a tie breaking vote for party leadership. If Sen. Mark Kelly prevails in Arizona, Democrats would still need to win either Nevada or Georgia to maintain majority control of the Senate. If in this scenario, however, Laxalt wins in Nevada, a Georgia runoff (required under Georgia law if neither Democratic incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock nor Republican challenger Herschel Walker reach a 50% threshold of the vote) would occur on Dec 6 and likely delay Senate organizing for the 118th Congress until a determination can be made for party control of the chamber

*indicates a retiring Senator

DEMOCRATIC LEADERSHIP

No matter the outcome of the midterms and whether Democrats retain control of the Senate, Sen. Chuck Schumer's (D NY) position as Democratic Leader is certainly secure. Having led Senate Democrats through the myriad challenges of the longest ever tenure of an evenly divided 50/50 Senate in the 117th, and having successfully shepherded significant legislative victories for the Biden Administration, Schumer has solidified his support within the caucus ranks.

Similarly, the broader Senate Democratic leadership team of twelve members is likely to remain largely intact. The top caucus positions under Schumer, currently held by Majority Whip Sen. Dick Durbin (D IL), Assistant Leader Sen. Patty Murray (D WA), and DPCC Chair Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D MI) are unlikely to be challenged and the other members including Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D MA), Mark Warner (D VA), Amy Klobuchar (D MN), Bernie Sanders (I VT), Catherine Cortez Masto (D NV)*, Joe Manchin (D WV), Cory Booker (D NJ), and Tammy Baldwin (D WI) will seek to maintain their positions as well.

To the extent changes in leadership structure are possible, there are two factors to consider. First, should Democrats maintain the majority, the President Pro Tempore (PPT) position currently held by retiring Sen. Patrick Leahy (D VT) will need to be filled. While this role has traditionally been held by the most senior member of the majority party, Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D CA), who will be first in seniority on the Democratic side in the 118th, has indicated she is not interested in becoming PPT. The next in line would be Sen. Murray, who is also poised to take over the Democrats’ top spot on the powerful Appropriations committee.

Second, similar to caucus discussions that took place following the 2020 elections, it is possible there may be some desire, particularly amongst more junior members, to more evenly distribute power and influence in the Senate Democratic ranks. In the current Congress, this ultimately played out with the implementation of the so called “Murphy rule,” in which senior Members holding full committee gavels could not select subcommittee posts (particularly powerful Appropriations subcommittee leadership slots) until every Member of the caucus had an opportunity to select a subcommittee gavel. It remains an open question as to whether members will seek to join and/or advance in leadership, or obtain new committee posts, should the opportunity arise.

*should Sen. Cortez Masto prevail in her reelection bid

REPUBLICAN LEADERSHIP

Regardless of party control of the chamber, Sen. Mitch McConnell (R KY) will remain the unquestioned leader of Senate Republicans. With 38 years serving in Senate, and the longest tenure of any Republican Senate leader in history (16 years), Sen. McConnell swatted off attempts this fall by former President Trump to call into question his ability to lead the party in the 118th Congress.

While Sen. McConnell certainly has a faction of the GOP Conference that are often at odds with him, including Sens. Ted Cruz (R TX), Ron Johnson (R WI), Mike Lee (R UT), John Kennedy (R LA), fellow Kentuckian Rand Paul, and Rick Scott (R FL), he has maintained broad Republican support for an unprecedented tenure when, next year, he is set to surpass Democratic Leader Mike Mansfield (D MT) as the longest serving party leader ever.

The Republicans’ number two position, Republican Whip, will likely remain in the hands of Sen. John Thune (R SD) who will be term limited at the end of the 118th Congress. Sen John Barrasso (R WY) holds the third ranking leadership position of Republican Conference Chair and is expected to continue in that role. The major leadership changes for the Senate Republican leadership will occur in the more junior positions. Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R WV) has announced her intention to run for Conference Vice Chair, a job that will be vacated by Sen Joni Ernst (R IA) who will vie for the fourth leadership position, Republican Policy Chair (held in the 117th Congress by retiring Sen Roy Blunt (R MO)). It is expected that Sens. John Cornyn (R TX), Roger Wicker (R MS), and Chuck Grassley (R IA) the longest serving Republican Senator will maintain their unelected leadership positions as advisors to McConnell (other unelected members of leadership include Sens. Capito and Portman). Sen. Steve Daines (R MT) is expected to be the NRSC Chair

LEGISLATIVE/POLITICAL AGENDA DEMOCRATS

While control of the Senate is yet to be determined, it is clear that even if Democrats maintain a majority in the Senate, the President’s party will be more encumbered by a probable incoming House Republican Majority. Given this, Senate Democrats are likely to focus heavily on two main areas: 1) amplifying and bolstering the significant legislative accomplishments of the previous two years of President Biden’s first term, including ongoing implementation of the American Rescue Plan Act, the Bipartisan Infrastructure law, the Chips and Science Act, the

Inflation Reduction Act, the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act, the PACT Act, and more; and 2) nominations. Maintaining Democratic control of the Senate would perhaps be most significant in terms of continuing the ability to confirm key Biden Administration officials, many of whom will be integral in the implementation efforts of the aforementioned laws, as well as judicial nominations. To date, the Democratic Senate has confirmed 84 judges nominated by President Biden, including Supreme Court Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson, 25 Court of Appeals judges, and 58 District Court judicial nominations.

Additionally, Democrats and the Administration are likely to seek opportunities for bipartisan work on a handful of issues beyond the annual “must pass bills” of appropriations and the National Defense Authorization Act. Discussions on topics ranging from workforce and job training to climate and clean energy, cannabis reform, marriage equality, immigration reform, and more will remain top priorities for many members

LEGISLATIVE/POLITICAL AGENDA REPUBLICAN

Regardless of which party is in control of the Senate, Sen. McConnell will continue his well disciplined efforts to keep Republican Senators united in their opposition to Biden Schumer priorities. The self styled “grim reaper” of the socialist agenda, Sen. McConnell has deftly blocked Democratic policy objectives, organizing his caucus and working across the aisle with moderate Sens. Krysten Sinema (D AZ) and Joe Manchin (D WV). He will continue to slow down consideration of the President’s nominations especially judicial as a key negotiating tool.

Unlike the 117th Congress, where Sen. McConnell's Conference acted as the sole bulwark against the Democratic agenda, the Senate Republicans will be bolstered by an energized House Republican conference set to pass an aggressive series of bills early in the session. Unlike the House Republican conference, which often coordinates a specific platform for its members to push and campaign on, do not expect Senate Republican leadership to lay out a formal agenda. Both chambers will have shared priorities to curb inflation, reduce spending, address rising crime, focus on the border crisis, and improve economic policies.

Should Republicans win the majority, expect Sen. McConnell to closely guard the Senate Floor, deflecting issues that are divisive within the Republican party while looking for policies that unite his caucus and put the White House on the defense. Sen. McConnell will continue to contend with the isolationist strain of the party, which has linked up with most ardent supporters of former President Trump to question America's foreign engagement. Sen. McConnell will need to work closely with the Administration to support Ukraine which most of his party sees as a proxy war for human freedom in Europe and around the globe, while pushing back against former President Trump if he dials up the pressure for the U.S. to negotiate a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine.

Committee leaders are likely to include:

SENATE COMMITTEE LEADERSHIP FORECAST

Committee Democratic Republican

Aging

Bob Casey (PA) Mike Braun (IN)

Agriculture Debbie Stabenow (MI) John Boozman (AR)

Appropriations Patty Murray (WA) Susan Collins (ME)

Armed Services Jack Reed (RI) Roger Wicker (MS)

Banking Sherrod Brown (OH) Tim Scott (SC)

Budget Sheldon Whitehouse (RI) Lindsey Graham (SC)

Commerce Maria Cantwell (WA) Ted Cruz (TX)

Energy Joe Manchin (WV) John Barrasso (WY)

EPW Tom Carper (DE) Shelley Moore Capito (WV)

Finance Ron Wyden (OR) Mike Crapo (ID)

Foreign Relations Bob Menendez (NJ) Jim Risch (ID)

HELP Bernie Sanders (I VT) Rand Paul (KY) or Bill Cassidy (LA)

Homeland Security Gary Peters (MI) Rand Paul (KY) or Ron Johnson (WI)

Indian Affairs Brian Schatz (HI) Lisa Murkowski (AK)

Judiciary

Dick Durbin (IL) Chuck Grassley (IA)

Committee Democratic Republican

Rules

Amy Klobuchar (MN) Deb Fischer (NE)

Small Business Ben Cardin (MD) Joni Ernst (IA)

Veterans Affairs Jon Tester (MT) Jerry Moran (KS)

NOTABLE DEFEATS, RETIREMENTS , OR NEW ADDITIONS DEMOCRATS

With races in Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia yet to be called, Democrats have thus far successfully defended all 14 of their incumbents while picking up the Pennsylvania seat left open by retiring Sen. Pat Toomey. With Sen. Mark Kelly seemingly poised to hold his seat in Arizona, control of the chamber will likely be determined by the outcomes in Nevada and/or Georgia. Should either Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto or Sen. Raphael Warnock prevail, Democrats will maintain the majority in the Senate by at least a 50 50 margin.

Late Republican efforts to expand the Senate map in states such as New Hampshire, Colorado, and Washington were ultimately unsuccessful, with incumbent Senators in each winning handily.

NOTABLE DEFEATS, RETIREMENTS , OR NEW ADDITIONS REPUBLICAN

Of the 20 seats Republicans were defending in 2022, they are currently holding 19 seats and have lost one. No pick ups of Democratic seats have occurred yet though that may change in final results from Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada.

What we do know is that from an ideological perspective, the Senate Republican conference will tick more to the right. The retirements of pragmatic conservatives and their replacement by more right leaning Senator elects such as Eric Schmitt (R MO) (who has already pledged not to support Mitch McConnell for Republican Leader) and Ted Budd (R NC) threaten to take the Republican conference in a more conservative direction. Victories for challenger Blake Masters in Arizona and former Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt who was a leading advocate for former President Trump recount efforts in the state in 2020 would continue this trend. The additions of Katie Britt (R AL), J.D. Vance (R OH), and Markwayne Mullin (R OK) are closer to a one for one ideological replacement for their predecessors. And, while not racing to the right like the House Republican conference, Senate Republicans are ,as a whole, moving further that direction.

Popular governors helped buoy endangered Republicans in toss up races, such as Ohio, Georgia, and Florida. The Republican victories in Ohio showed the limitations to Democrats' ability to counter former President Trump in Rust Belt states, even when putting forth an experienced and polished moderate candidate. However, Republican losses in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire showed that same messaging strategy in the wrong state can weigh candidates down, as well.

GOVERNORS

OVERVIEW

Just as the 2018 gubernatorial races were key to determining new congressional districts after the 2020 census, the importance of the 2022 governor elections is heightened due to the role of state executives in validating election results and the recent Supreme Court decision which pushed reproductive decisions back to the states.

This year, gubernatorial elections were held in 36 states and three territories, with 31 incumbent governors eligible to run for reelection and eight governors not eligible or seeking reelection. Republicans held 28 seats while Democrats held 22, with Alaska, Arizona, Nevada, and Oregon too close to call hours after polls closed, Democrats have clearly outperformed modest expectations with two historic flips in Maryland and Massachusetts and hard fought tossups in Kansas, Wisconsin, and Michigan.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

Republicans extended their streak of holding the majority of governorships to 12 years.  Democrats pushed platforms with women’s health at the fore. 

Republicans led with anti crime messaging and ‘law and order ’ 

The Governorships are likely to remain fertile ground for Presidential candidates from both parties looking to run as ‘outsiders.’

Democrats came into the election with two prime pickup opportunities Massachusetts and Maryland which they sealed. However, the narrative in the remaining Democratic states was largely defensive, especially in Kansas and Wisconsin, where Democrats won close electoral counts. “Purple” Nevada has so far proved elusive for Democrats, as incumbent Gov. Sisolak’s race against Joe Lombardo is still too close to call. This could be in part due to national Republican forces pouring money into the state for the Senate race, where Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto was a top conservative pickup opportunity.

The Democratic party apparatus clearly spent its resources wisely and in articulated fashion. The platform that worked in Pennsylvania, where the Democratic candidate Shapiro was running against Republican Mastriano was highly differentiated from the races in Massachusetts or California.

GUBERNATORIAL R ACES

GENERAL SUMMATION

As Washington, D.C. is looking at two years of divided, partisan government, state capitols are becoming increasingly active political hotbeds as the nation gears up for the 2024 presidential election, with several governors featuring prominently in the race for the White House If election numbers hold consistent to current levels, the Democrats will have increased their balance of governorships to 22, while ceding the remaining 24 to Republicans. Once again, four races, Alaska, Arizona, Nevada, and Oregon are still outstanding.

Michigan: Democratic incumbent Gretchen Whitmer won her first race on a pragmatic message of “fix the damn roads.” Beyond securing federal funding to address infrastructure concerns, Gov. Whitmer found new urgency in her campaign by focusing on women’s health. Her opponent, conservative commentator Tudor Dixon, ran an outsider campaign predicated in part on former President Trump’s support and a near total ban on abortion. Gov. Whitmer is often mentioned as a potential presidential candidate.

Wisconsin: Former President Obama’s last minute rally provided just enough enthusiasm to carry incumbent Democrat Tony Evers across the line in Wisconsin, where a Republican

2022 Gubernatorial Races as of 11/10/22. Graphic Sourced from Politico.

dominated legislature remains poised to counter the powers of the executive. Obama clamored that “Democracy is also on the ballot” ten days before the election, which Evers won by less than 3% of the votes cast in a campaign that was shaped by social justice and the events of the last several years.

Maryland: Wes Moore may be new to elective office, but his smooth sail to Annapolis indicates that he may remain on the political scene for some time to come. Gov elect Moore, a Rhodes Scholar, has a military, government, and not for profit background which he parlayed into a win over a crowded democratic primary, which included former DNC Chair, Tom Perez, as well as sitting MD Comptroller Peter Franchot. Moore is a self styled centrist who views himself as socially moderate and fiscally responsible.

New York: In July, Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) led former Rep. Lee Zeldin (R) by an average of 19 points. Political experts were shocked on election night when Rep. Zeldin pulled to within single digits of Gov. Hochul’s lead Rep. Zeldin’s commitment to protect public safety by cracking down on rising crime and illegal immigration resonated with New York voters who have not elected a Republican to lead the state since George Pataki in 1994. However, Zeldin needed a minimum of 30% of the electorate in New York City, and he was unable to secure that tranche in the heavily Democratic City.

Massachusetts: In Massachusetts, state Attorney General Maura Healey (D) maintained consistent polling and fundraising leads throughout the campaign, flipping this formerly Republican (Gov. Baker) state executive seat back to the Democrat’s column. Gov elect Healey cut her political teeth by leading the nation’s first successful challenge to the Defense of Marriage Act, a 1996 law that prohibited federal recognition of same sex marriages. Her opponent, Geoff Diehl, was a former state representative endorsed by former President Trump. The win is historic, as she becomes the Commonwealth’s first female and openly gay governor. The former captain of the Harvard women’s basketball team began her life in public service working for the Massachusetts attorney general’s office.

Arizona: (Subject to change pending election outcomes) If current vote counting trends continue, former news anchor Kari Lake (R) will be defeated by the current Secretary of State Katie Hobbs (D) in a race that focused just as much on election integrity as it did on immigration reform and inflation. In the end, the reserved nature of the Hobbs campaign tipped the scale in her favor as Gov. elect Lake who, one of former President Trump’s strongest supporters, found herself against the current political winds in Arizona.

Florida: Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) defeated Rep. Charlie Crist (D) by approximately 20 points in a race that many political observers predicted as competitive in the beginning. Gov. DeSantis’s prolific fundraising gave him the confidence to campaign in New York for gubernatorial candidate Lee Zeldin (R) just two weeks before the election. Refusing to commit to serving out another full term as Florida’s Governor, DeSantis is seen as a 2024 Republican frontrunner and may be the only candidate that can beat former President Trump in a primary.

Oklahoma: Gov. Kevin Stitt won reelection over Joy Hofmeister (D) in a race that was closer than originally expected in this conservative midwestern state. The political drama started when Hofmeister, who served two terms as a Republican as Oklahoma’s elected state superintendent of public instruction, switched parties to run against Gov. Stitt, and it peaked when former Rep. J.C. Watts (R) cut an ad endorsing Hofmeister one week before election day. However, Stitt was able to overcome the attacks with the help of a slew of endorsements by national conservatives, including Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

Georgia: In a rematch of their 2018 gubernatorial race, incumbent Republican Gov. Brian Kemp (R) once again defeated former State Rep. Stacey Abrams (D), only this time by a lot more. Gov. Kemp campaigned heavily on Georgia’s record low unemployment and economic success during his first term as Governor. Perhaps just as important to his reelection was Gov. Kemp’s promise to continue to crack down on gang violence and support of law enforcement. Gov. Kemp remains in the unique position of having stood up to former President Trump during the 2020 election and been rewarded with reelection, which may set him up for future political opportunities.

Nevada: (Subject to change pending election outcomes) Unlike 2018, when Silver State Republicans were fractured, Republican voters were united and joined many of the state’s Independents to help veteran and Clark County Sherriff Joe Lombardo (R) narrowly defeat first term incumbent Gov. Steve Sisolak (D) by a narrow margin (votes continue to be counted as we go to press.) While nearly three fourths of the state’s population reside in the Democratic leaning Clark County, Gov. elect Lombardo made a concerted effort early in the campaign to devote time and resources targeting independent voters, specifically to the north in bellwether Washoe County. After being sworn in as Governor, Gov. elect Lombardo will immediately begin to welcome 2024 Republican presidential candidates as Nevada will continue to have an early and important role in the nomination process.

AGRICULTURE

OVERVIEW

At time of publication of this report, Republicans are on track to regain control of the House of Representatives for the first time since 2018, by very slim margins. The outcome of the House elections will not be known until all votes are counted and several toss up races are called. The content of this report will offer insight into both a Republican controlled or Democratic controlled Senate in the 118th Congress and reflects a new Republican majority in the House.

KEY TAKEAWAYS



Rep. Glenn Thompson will be Chair of the House Agriculture Committee.



Rep. Andy Harris will be Chair of the House Agriculture Appropriations Subcommittee



The 2023 Farm Bill will be at the forefront of the legislative agenda for the House and Senate Committees on Agriculture during the 118th Congress. Election results trigger new leadership for the House Committee on Agriculture and the House Committee on Appropriations Subcommittee on Agriculture, Rural Development, Food and Drug Administration, and Related Agencies (Ag FDA). As a result, House Republicans will oversee writing the 2023 Farm Bill and the agriculture appropriations bill. Expect pressure to decrease federal spending on social and climate programs and a refocus of support for traditional agriculture.

Senate committee leadership will depend on the final election results.

Debate over the next farm bill will likely focus on inflation, increased input prices, supply chain issues, the war in Ukraine, industry consolidation, climate, nutrition, and conservation. While the funding provided in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) could lay the foundation for new climate and conservation programs, Republicans may push to reprogram funding for more traditional agriculture programs or for overall reductions in the name of spending control. While we do not expect Congress to complete the 2023 Farm Bill before the Sept. 30 expiration date, a temporary extension will likely be passed to fund mandatory programs and to secure program budget baselines.

SENATE AGRICULTURE COMMITTEE

The current Chair, Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D MI), is expected to remain as the lead Democrat on the Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry, and, with his victory in Arkansas, Sen. John Boozman (R AR) will remain as the top Republican. While unlikely, if a Democratic leadership position opened, it could lure Sen. Stabenow from the Committee, creating opportunity for a new Democratic lead. With Sen. Sherrod Brown (D OH) currently leading the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D MN) would be the next most senior Democrat on the Agriculture Committee.

Sen. Stabenow’s leadership of the 2023 Farm Bill in the Senate would mean a likely emphasis on incentives for conservation practices, rural development, and broadband. Maintaining additional climate related funding will also be a priority, along with protecting nutrition programs.

Sen. Boozman’s leadership of the 2023 Farm Bill would mean a likely emphasis on traditional production agriculture and improvements to safety net programs and margin protection tools, which will be a challenge in an environment where Republicans will seek to curb spending. However, Sen. Boozman remains steadfast in ensuring the continuity of rural America and the profitability of family farms.

Expect interest on the Republican side in reallocating funding in the conservation, climate, and nutrition sectors. We also expect Sen. Boozman to push for conservation, innovation, and research to help farmers adapt to more frequent severe weather.

Several current members of the Committee were up for reelection this year. Sens. Michael Bennet (D CO), John Hoeven (R ND), Chuck Grassley (R IA), and John Thune (R SD) all won their reelection bids.

Sen. Patrick Leahy’s (D VT) retirement will create an open seat on the Committee. Neither Sen. Raphael Warnock (D GA) nor Republican challenger Herschel Walker received 50% of the vote on Election Day, sending the race to a runoff on Dec. 6. A loss for Sen. Warnock would open an additional seat on the committee.

HOUSE AGRICULTURE COMMITTEE

In the House, Rep. Glenn ‘GT’ Thompson (R PA) is expected to take over as Chair of the House Agriculture Committee. Rep. David Scott (D GA) is the current House Agriculture Committee Chair and the most senior Democrat on the Committee, but there is a chance the Ranking Member position is passed to another senior member of the Committee. The election and change in party control will slow the legislative process as the House Agriculture Committee makes staff and administrative changes. Once staffing and priorities are determined, the Committee will move expeditiously with farm bill hearings. The Committee hopes to have draft text before the end of 2023.

With a Republican controlled House, expect farm bill discussions to be pro farmer and pro traditional agriculture. With the significant investment in climate change mitigation practices, climate smart commodities, and conservation provided by the IRA, the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), and through the administrative use of Commodity Credit Corporation funds, we could see Republicans look to redirect funding within the conservation title into production agriculture programs such as Title I programs, crop insurance, and even new margin protection programs.

Republican control of the gavel will lead to more oversight of the Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), amongst other federal agencies. Nutrition will also receive scrutiny, given the budget increases received through administrative

action. Although an overall reduction for nutrition programs would be difficult, expect an emphasis on those programs that support employment and training. In addition, expect more interest in efforts to reduce the deficit/debt and support for reducing some of the additional spending.

In addition to the farm bill, the Agriculture Committee will seek to reauthorize the Pesticide Registration Improvement Act (PRIA). While there is hope that the bill will pass during the lame duck session, if it does slip into 2023, a Republican controlled House would expedite its passage. Rep. Thompson has said that he will push to pass the bill in the first quarter to ensure PRIA and farm bill negotiations are not entangled.

At the time of publication, five current members of the Committee were defeated in the election: Reps. Cindy Axne (D IA), Al Lawson (D FL), Sean Patrick Maloney (D NY), Tom O’Halleran (D AZ) and Mayra Flores (R TX).

Retirements will create additional open seats on the Committee. Retirements include Reps. Bobby Rush (D IL), Cheri Bustos (D IL), Vicky Hartzler (R MO), and Chris Jacobs (R NY). In addition, Rep. Rodney Davis (R IL) lost his primary against Rep. Mary Miller (R IL) after redistricting pitted the two Committee members against each other. Even with Republican retirements, open slots on the Committee will be oversubscribed, as they were in the 117th Congress, and there will be few slots reserved for Democrats following the ratio precedent set last Congress.

SENATE APPROPRIATIONS C O MMITTEE

Senate Appropriations Committee Chair Patrick Leahy (D VT) and Ranking Member Richard Shelby (R AL) are both retiring. Sen. Patty Murray (D WA) is expected to give up her position as lead Democrat on the Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions to lead the Democratic side of the Senate Appropriations Committee and Sen. Susan Collins (R ME) will serve as her Republican counterpart Retirements on the full Committee will trigger movement on the Ag FDA Subcommittee, but Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D WI) and Sen. John Hoeven (R ND) will likely remain as their party’s leadership.

Expect similar Democratic appropriations priorities to remain during the 118th Congress. The Ag FDA Subcommittee will continue to increase investment in rural development, conservation, and innovation for climate smart commodities.

It is anticipated that Republican priorities will include a decrease in federal spending, particularly with cuts and limits to climate related, conservation, and nutrition programs.

The rest of the Subcommittee makeup will differ slightly from that of the 117th Congress. Sens. Brain Schatz (D HI) and Jerry Moran (R KS) defeated their opponents and Sens. Jeff Merkley (D OR), Dianne Feinstein (D CA), Jon Tester (D MT), Martin Heinrich (D NM), Mitch McConnell (R KY), Susan Collins (R ME), Cindy Hyde Smith (R MS), and Mike Braun (R IN) did not face reelection. Final Subcommittee makeup for the 118th Congress is difficult to predict, but with Sens. Leahy and Blunt retiring there will be at least two open seats.

HOUSE APPROPRIATIONS C O MMITTEE

As Republicans take control of the House, Ranking Member Kay Granger (R TX) and Chair Rosa DeLauro (D CT) will exchange roles as Chair and Ranking Member. Leadership on the House Ag FDA Subcommittee will also flip, with Rep. Andy Harris (R MD) potentially becoming Chair. However, the Republican selection process does not necessarily ensure his chairmanship, and with several other current ranking members term limited, we could see a wholesale shuffle of gavels. Rep. Sanford Bishop (D GA) will likely serve as Ranking Member of the Ag FDA Subcommittee. His seniority on the Committee opens opportunities to lead another subcommittee; however, the opportunity has presented itself in the past and Rep. Bishop has chosen to stay.

With Republican leadership, expect to see support for rural broadband programs and agriculture research programs, with decreased spending on social programs that saw a significant increase during the COVID 19 pandemic. Limits on mandatory programs that have seen large increases, such as nutrition, conservation, and climate, will likely be considered to increase discretionary funding, although pushback from the House Agriculture Committee will occur.

GENERAL SUMMATION

With new leadership in the House, and possibly the Senate, traditional agriculture will be a priority for the 2023 Farm Bill. However, pressure from Republicans for fiscal constraint and reform of nutrition and climate focused spending sets the stage for confrontation within the Committees and between Congress and the Biden Administration. This may also jeopardize movement of appropriations bills funding USDA and EPA.

In the 117th Congress, Democratic leaders ensured that there was a significant urban membership on both the Senate and House Agriculture Committees and Ag FDA Appropriations Subcommittees, whose priorities focused on nutrition programs. The change in control of the House, and possibly the Senate, could result in changes in Committee ratios and a loss of seats for Democrats. Leaders will likely have difficult choices allocating seats in the 118th Congress among nutrition advocates and supporters of more traditional agriculture.

APPROPRIATIONS

OVERVIEW

At time of publication of this report, Republicans are on track to regain control of the House of Representatives for the first time since 2018, by a very slim margin. The outcome of the House and Senate elections will not be known until all votes are counted and several toss up races are called. The content of this report will offer insight into both a Republican controlled or Democratic controlled Senate in the 118th Congress and reflect a new Republican majority in the House.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

For the first time, women will lead all "four corners" of the Appropriations Committees.  Republicans may attempt to tie limits on FY 2024 and future discretionary spending to a debt limit deal.  Appropriations will be a key opportunity for the President to seek bipartisan compromises with the new Congress.

With Republicans taking the gavel on the Committees on Appropriations in the House, and possibly the Senate, the must pass annual appropriations bills will provide the Biden Administration with an opportunity to forge compromises under a divided government and continue to advance Administration priorities. The need to get 60 votes in the Senate will give the President’s party some leverage in negotiations. However, the new Republican majority in the House will undoubtedly have different ideas on the amount of discretionary spending and the allocation of funding across the government in defense versus non defense activities. The need for Republicans to initiate legislation to raise the debt limit during 2023, unless addressed in the lame duck session, will certainly add pressure to control spending across both discretionary and mandatory programs of the government. This may even result in the return of multi year statutory spending caps on appropriations which ended after Fiscal Year (FY)2021.

Normally, these top line decisions of the budget framework are the domain of the Committees on the Budget to pass House and Senate Budget Resolutions that are, in theory, reconciled in a budget conference before advancing the appropriations bills. In practice, the House and Senate have relied upon deeming resolutions that are passed prior to moving appropriations bills on the House and Senate floors and deeming resolutions have become Leadership decisions. Another pending decision that often involves the Leadership or votes of the majority party is whether Congressionally Directed Spending (Senate term) and Community Project Funding (House term), otherwise known as earmarks, will continue next year. Expect a spirited debate on the subject within the House Republican Conference next week when House Republicans organize for the new session. For the moment, it looks likely the practice will continue. With elections also comes the rebalancing of committee size and ratios of Majority to Minority members. New members will be added, and some returning members may depart for assignments on other committees. Some aspects of this process will not be determined until the new Congress convenes in January.

SENATE APPROPRIATIONS C O MMITTEE

At this time, Senate control has yet to be determined and with the retirements of Chair Patrick Leahy (D VT) and Ranking Member Richard Shelby (R AL), the gavel will pass to either Sen. Patty Murray (D WA) or Sen. Susan Collins (R ME) This will be the first time in history that all “Four Corners” of the Appropriations Committees are positions held by women, as the House counterparts are Reps. Kay Granger (R TX) and Rosa DeLauro (D CT) at the helm. In a Senate that is likely to continue to be evenly divided, or close to it, the challenge of taking appropriations bills through the regular order of committee markups and floor consideration will be something that both parties pledge to support at the outset. The ability to accomplish this feat will remain to be seen.

As discussed in more detail under the topic areas of this report, there will be significant changes in leadership at many of the respective appropriations subcommittees. But, of note, by assuming the top spot on the full Committee, Sen. Murray will likely have to give up the top position on the Senate Appropriations Committee Subcommittee on Labor, Health and Human Services, Education, and Related Agencies (Labor HHS) due to Senate Democratic Caucus rules. Under the different rules for Republicans, Sen. Collins will be able to follow Sen. Shelby and have both the top full Committee job and lead the Senate Appropriations Committee Subcommittee on Defense (SAC D).

HOUSE APPROPRIATIONS C O MMITTEE

With the House of Representatives now under Republican control, current Ranking Member Granger is in line to take the gavel as Chair. Given that Democrats will see seven vacancies on the Committee with retirements, it is likely few, if any, returning Democrats will lose their appropriations assignment now that they are in the minority. On the Republican side, two Committee members lost their primaries, which will add to the number of new members on the Committee for their party. Expect clarity by January on the number of allotted spots on the Committee and the ratio of slots allocated between the two parties.

There is the potential for subcommittee shifts among several of the most senior Republican appropriators, notably with Reps. Tom Cole (R OK), Mario Diaz Balart (R FL), Mike Simpson (R ID), and Hal Rogers (R KY). As current subcommittee Ranking Members, they are in line to Chair the Labor HHS, Transportation, Housing and Urban Development, and Related Agencies (THUD), Energy and Water Development (E&W), and State, Foreign Operations and Related Programs (SFOPS) Subcommittees, respectively, but would need to seek waivers granted by leadership and ratified by the Steering Committee to retain their posts.

Looking ahead to FY 2024, expect rank and file members of the new majority to leverage appropriations bills to increase border wall funding, curtail what some see as the politicization of the FBI and Justice Department, and increase domestic use of fossil fuels.

GENERAL SUMMATION

Republican control of the House may seem to doom President Biden’s chances to advance his Administration’s priorities through the appropriations process. But there is a lot of leverage that can be asserted through the threat of a presidential veto. Additionally, should the Republican’s regain the majority in the Senate, the 60 vote threshold required to move appropriations also means Senate Democrats will wield real power even if they are in the minority. Tying increases for defense spending to similar increases for non defense spending has been a successful strategy implemented in previous negotiations on spending caps. It remains to be seen if it will work again.

APPROPRIATIONS: LAME DUCK SESSION

OVERVIEW

KEY TAKEAWAYS



Negotiations will start after the midterm election results are finalized



Getting to a final agreement that will have the votes to pass both the House and Senate will be difficult.



A primary focus of the lame duck session will be to resolve differences across the 12 appropriations bills and complete an omnibus conference agreement for Fiscal Year (FY) 2023 appropriations before the current Continuing Resolution (CR) expires on Dec. 16. Another short term CR may be needed if the process remains unfinished by that time. The current plan of the House and Senate Committees on Appropriations is to finish the omnibus in 2022. Currently the threat of a government shutdown seems remote but getting to a final agreement that will have the votes to pass both the House and Senate will be difficult and some of the incoming Republican majority are already pushing for a CR that extends into the new Congress to prevent such a lame duck negotiation. Conversations between the top leaders of the Appropriations Committees to determine parameters for funding the government for FY 2023 should commence soon, with negotiations on an omnibus hopefully in full swing in the next couple of weeks.

If the omnibus is delayed until the next Congress, it could take until at least Apr. 2023 to complete FY 2023.

The28 appropriations bill may also be “the last train out of the station,” and the vehicle for any remaining supplemental or emergency spending items related to disaster assistance for Hurricane Ian, aid for Ukraine, or the outstanding COVID 19 and Monkeypox requests submitted by the Biden Administration, as well as for many unrelated authorizing bills and provisions as the 117th Congress draws to a close.

To date, the House has reported all 12 appropriations subcommittee bills out of the full Committee and has passed half of them off the House Floor with only Democratic support. The Senate skipped the committee markup and Floor process and posted 12 subcommittee bills and explanatory statements on the Appropriations Committee website that represents the majority’s position. Reminiscent of last year’s conference, the initial decision is the likely top line reallocation of total spending from the non defense to the defense side of the ledger and then establishing the respective subcommittee spending caps known as 302(b) allocations. Compared to House and Senate bills, non defense subcommittees like the Committee on Appropriations Subcommittee on Labor, Health and Human Services, Education, and Related Agencies (Labor HHS) will see spending totals decline significantly in conference as funding is shifted to raise the allocation for defense programs. The demand for more defense spending is driven in part by the annual must pass National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), which is also headed to conference during the lame duck, and in part by inflation concerns regarding military readiness.

GENERAL SUM MATION

Congress must fund the continued operations of the Federal government or face a government shutdown at midnight on Dec. 16. Several conservative House Republicans have called for another CR to fund FY 2023 government operations through mid March 2023, believing large year end bills typically carry additional spending and policy compromises and finalizing them in March would enable less spending and allow the new Republican majority to direct the process. That said, concurrently writing FY 2023 and FY 2024 bills poses a challenge to the Appropriations Committees both logistically and politically.

CYBERSECURITY

OVERVIEW

At time of publication of this report, Republicans are on track to regain control of the House of Representatives for the first time since 2018, by a very slim margin. While the outcome of the all the House and Senate elections have not yet been determined, the content of this report offers insight into both a Republican controlled or Democratic controlled Senate in the 118th Congress and reflect a new Republican majority in the House.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

Key issues include combating foreign influence, protecting intellectual property, and defending critical infrastructure. 

Congress still needs to pass FY 2023 appropriations bills and NDAA.

Cybersecurity remains a top priority in Congress. The deteriorating relationship with Russia due to the Ukraine invasion and increased tensions between China and Taiwan especially with President Biden’s statement that the U.S. would defend Taiwan if it were attacked by China have contributed to a desire to bolster national security. Policymakers will likely continue bipartisan efforts to increase cybersecurity capabilities across the government, military, private sector, and critical infrastructure.

Other key cybersecurity actors, such as the new Office of the National Cyber Director and the newly appointed Cyber Ambassador, Nate Fick, are also expected to have a significant impact on cybersecurity policy. However, the role of these positions and their interactions with other stakeholders remains to be fully established. Additionally, Congress did not pass final Fiscal Year (FY) 2023 appropriations bills or the FY 2023 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) before the new fiscal year began on Oct. 1, 2022, leaving funding and policy decisions for critical cyber initiatives unsettled. The Departments of Defense and Homeland Security are currently operating under a Continuing Resolution (CR) until Dec. 16, 2022.

SENATE AUTHORIZATION C O MMITTEE S

At this time, Senate control has yet to be determined. As such, Democratic leadership on the Senate Armed Services Committee will be led by Sen Jack Reed (R RI). With the retirement of current SASC Ranking Member James Inhofe (R OK), Sen. Roger Wicker (R MS) is slated to be the top Republican. The SASC Subcommittee on Cybersecurity will likely be led by Sens Joe Manchin (D WV) and Mike Rounds (R SD).

On the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee (HSGAC), Chair Gary Peters (D MI) will likely remain in Democratic leadership, but Ranking Member Rob Portman (R OH) is retiring at the end of this term. Those in consideration to be the top Republican include Sens. Ron Johnson (R WI) or James Lankford (R OK).

HOUSE A UTHORIZATION COMMITTEE S

House Armed Services Committee Chair Adam Smith (D WA) won his reelection and will become Ranking Member as Republicans are set to take control of the House. Current Ranking Member Mike Rogers (R AL) is set to assume leadership as Chair. The retirement of Subcommittee on Cyber, Innovative Technology, and Information Systems Chair James Langevin (D RI) and a flip in House control leaves Rep. Jim Banks (R IN) as the likely incoming Chair. Please refer to the Defense section of this report for further Committee information.

On the House Committee on Homeland Security, Chair Bennie Thompson (D MS) will likely become Ranking Member with the change in party leadership. Additionally, current Ranking Member John Katko (R NY) did not seek reelection leaving that slot open. Contenders for the top Republican position include Reps. Dan Bishop (R NC), Dan Crenshaw (R TX), Michael Guest (R MS), and Clay Higgins (R LA). Rep. Yvette Clarke (D NY), who currently chairs the Subcommittee on Cybersecurity, Infrastructure Protection, and Operations will likely become Ranking Member. Rep. Andrew Garbarino (R NY) is expected to become the Chair.

SENATE APPROPRIATIONS C O MMITTEE

With Sens. Patrick Leahy (D VT) and Richard Shelby (R AL) retiring, Sens. Patty Murray (D WA) and Susan Collins (R ME) are next in line for the top seats on the Senate Committee on Appropriations. On the Subcommittee on Defense, Sen. Jon Tester (D MT) is expected to remain as top Democrat. Sens. Chris Murphy (D CT) and Shelley Moore Capito (R WV) will most likely stay on as Republican leaders on the Subcommittee on Homeland Security.

HOUSE APPROPRIATIONS COMMITTEE

Ranking Member Kay Granger (R TX) is expected to take over as Chair of the House Appropriations Committee, replacing Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D CT), who will become the Ranking Member Current Chair of the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense (HAC D) Betty McCollum (D MN) will be the Ranking Member. On the Homeland Security Subcommittee on Appropriations, Rep. Chuck Fleischmann (R TN) is expected to replace Chair Lucille Roybal Allard (D CA) who is retiring.

GENERAL SUMMATION

• A combination of Republican control of the House of Representatives and the retirement of some Republican committee leaders means that there could be significant changes in leadership for committees relevant to cybersecurity.

• The growing importance of cybersecurity, especially following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, geopolitical tensions between China and Taiwan, and continuity of leadership in the Senate means bipartisan efforts for enhancing capabilities will likely continue.

• Current defense cybersecurity programs will run at FY 2022 budget levels until Congress passes final FY 2023 appropriations bills and the NDAA, hopefully following the midterm elections before the end of the calendar year.

DEFENSE & DEFENSE HEALTH

OVERVIEW

At time of publication of this report, Republicans are on track to regain control of the House of Representatives for the first time since 2018, by a very slim margin. While the outcome of the all the House and Senate elections have not yet been determined, the content of this report offers insight into both a Republican controlled or Democratic controlled Senate in the 118th Congress and reflect a new Republican majority in the House.

KEY TAKEAWAYS



Divided government will result in increased defense spending over the next two years.



New House leadership will bring changes to the continuity and policy of defense committees.

The 118th Congress will bring both change and continuity for defense and national security policy issues and appropriations. The Biden Administration National Security Strategy’s focus on China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran will receive bipartisan congressional support, as will continued assistance to Ukraine, but with enhanced congressional oversight. Congress will work with the Administration to achieve technological superiority in cybersecurity, hypersonics, quantum science, artificial intelligence, and autonomy. The Biden Administration will likely also continue to prioritize increased domestic spending while funding defense at or below inflation levels, leaving Congress to legislate increased force structure, nuclear modernization, and defense topline funding. Democrats and Republicans will need to work together to pass necessary legislation, resulting in increased defense spending over the next two years.



Expect to see continued support for medical research and the development and consolidation of medical activities into the Defense Health Agency.

New leadership of the defense committees in the 118th Congress will change committee dynamics as well as the makeup and leadership of several subcommittees.

SENATE ARMED SERVICES COMMITTEE (SASC)

Sen. Jack Reed (D RI) returns as the lead Democrat of the SASC and will be joined by Sen. Roger Wicker (R MS), who replaces retiring Ranking Member James Inhofe (R OK). Sen. Wicker currently serves as Ranking Member of the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation.

As the lead Democrat, Sen. Reed remains opposed to sweeping budget cuts to the Department of Defense and has supported increased defense spending over President Biden’s Budget Request in Fiscal Years (FY) 2022 and 2023. Sen. Reed’s priorities are aligned with the Biden Administration’s National Security Strategy, with a focus on strengthening military readiness, advancing military capabilities in response to China and Russia, increasing investments in the Asia Pacific region, cybersecurity, nuclear modernization, and research and development to

give our forces major advantages. Sen. Reed supports divestment of legacy systems to facilitate modernization, including building a larger Navy.

Sen. Wicker will become the lead Republican on the SASC. He is expected to continue rebuilding the military’s capacity, capability, and readiness with a focus on preparing for strategic competition against China and Russia. He will also prioritize passing the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) in regular order and has indicated he would support a spending increase of 5% of the gross domestic product, which roughly equates to $1 trillion. Sen. Wicker has been a longtime proponent of the U.S.’s involvement in NATO and supportive of strengthening ties with Europe. He is expected to continue his support for NATO members and U.S. allies, including Ukraine, and supports additional troops in the Baltics. Sen. Wicker is expected to champion the expansion of the Navy’s production of destroyers and amphibious ships, support building an Arctic fleet, continue regional partnerships in Europe and Asia, and invest in emerging capabilities such as artificial intelligence and anti satellite technology. Competition with China and Russia will be a major focus, as Sen. Wicker has likened the current U.S. China relationship to the Cold War and advocated for a “revival of American hard power.” Sen. Wicker has also called on the Biden Administration to publicly commit to defending Taiwan from a Chinese invasion. Sen. Wicker will work to rebuild the U.S. defense industrial base, provide better and faster support for Ukraine, restock U.S. weapon systems, and improve recruiting and retention.

Sens. Reed and Wicker have a very strong relationship and are both committed to implementing policies and resources to combat threats worldwide. While they will collaborate to expedite confirmation of military and civilian nominations, confirmation of civilian defense nominees will likely require additional time to report them out of committee

HOUSE ARMED SERVICES COMMITTEE (HASC)

Expect a major reshuffle in subcommittee leadership when HASC Chair Adam Smith (D WA) hands the gavel to the panel’s top Republican, Rep. Mike Rogers (R AL). Rep. Smith will stay on as the full Committee Ranking Member, but the pending departure of numerous HASC members will cause a significant membership overhaul going into the 118th Congress. Several retiring members hold leadership positions, including Rep. Jim Langevin (D RI), Chair of the Subcommittee on Cyber, Innovative Technologies, and Information Systems; Rep. Jim Cooper (D TN), Chair of the Subcommittee on Strategic Forces; Rep. Jackie Speier (D CA), Chair of the Subcommittee on Military Personnel; and Rep. Vicky Hartzler (R MO), Ranking Member of the Subcommittee on Tactical Air and Land Forces. Other HASC members leaving office include Reps. Mo Brooks (R AL), Liz Cheney (R WY), Anthony Brown (D MD), and Kai Kahele (D HI), as well as Elaine Luria (D VA) who lost her reelection It is also likely some Republican members will depart the Committee for potential leadership assignments and other committees.

Under the leadership of Rep. Rogers, the HASC will advocate for an increased defense budget to counter inflation, while simultaneously supporting readiness and modernization initiatives. The incoming Chair will focus on near term national security threats posed by China, advocating for the maintenance of current capabilities while supporting reform to drive shorter acquisition timelines for procurement of emerging technologies. Rep. Rogers is expected to focus on

programs that will bolster U.S. space, naval, and nuclear capabilities. The HASC will also likely hold additional oversight hearings related to Afghanistan and Ukraine. Expect bipartisan cooperation to continue, with Rep. Smith continuing to advocate for a defense budget based on a targeted threat based assessment of U.S. national security.

SENATE APPROPRIATIONS COMMITTEE

With the retirement of key Senate appropriators, including Committee Chairman Patrick Leahy (D VT) and Vice Committee Chair and SAC D Ranking Member Richard Shelby (R AL), the full Committee and Subcommittee will see new leadership. Sen. Susan Collins (R ME) will serve as the top Republican for both the full Committee and SAC D. Sen. Jon Tester (D MT), the current SAC D Chairman will continue as the top Democrat in the next Congress. In either scenario, it is unlikely the even partisan split on the Subcommittee currently in place due to the 50/50 Senate composition will continue. The majority party in the 118th Congress will almost certainly revert to a 10/9 majority minority SAC D membership split as was done in the 116th Congress.

Sens. Shelley Moore Capito (R WV) and John Kennedy (R LA) will likely fill the two Republican seats on the Subcommittee being vacated by retiring Sens. Shelby and Roy Blunt (R MO). Sen. Cindy Hyde Smith (R MS) would be next in line to join the Subcommittee if Republican SAC D seats are added. Sen. Jeff Merkley (D OR) would have the first option to assume the Democratic vacancy left by Sen. Leahy, followed by Sen. Chris Coons (D DE). If both Senators decline, the Democratic vacancy will be filled by Sen. Joe Manchin (D WV) followed by Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D MD).

The SAC D will continue to prioritize funding that prepares the U.S. military to compete with near peer adversaries through investments in strategic areas such as space, hypersonics, modernization of weapon systems, and artificial intelligence. Sen. Tester will likely continue to support defense allocations above the Biden Administration’s budget submissions over the next two years. Sen. Collins is not expected to significantly shift the priorities and approach of the Subcommittee, given her reputation as a moderate Republican. However, Sen. Collins will be inclined to continue the trend of supporting a defense allocation much higher than the Biden Administration’s budget submissions. With the heavy shipbuilding footprint in Maine, a robust funding increase for shipbuilding and conversion programs will also continue.

HOUSE APPROPRIATIONS COMMITTEE

As Republicans assume leadership of the House, they also gain control of the HAC D. Due to the shift in majority control, it is expected there will be at least four new members on the HAC D, with Reps. Chris Stewart (R UT), Mike Garcia (R CA), and Mike Simpson (R ID) all potential options to fill those slots. While seniority plays a large role in the assignment of new members to the Subcommittee, incoming full Committee Chairwoman Kay Granger (R TX) has discretion to fill the open seats on the Republican side. Depending on the size of both the overall Republican majority and the majority in the full Committee, look for a ratio of 11 Republicans and six or seven Democrats on the Subcommittee.

Current Chairwoman Betty McCollum (D MN) will transition to Ranking Member of the Subcommittee. With the retirements of Reps. Charlie Crist (D FL), Tim Ryan (D OH), Cheri Bustos (D IL), and Ann Kirkpatrick (D AZ), the Democratic makeup of the Subcommittee will look very different in the next Congress. Reps. McCollum, Dutch Ruppersberger (D MD), Derek Kilmer (D WA), Pete Aguilar (D CA), Henry Cuellar (D TX), and Marcy Kaptur (D OH) will be the remaining minority members sure to keep their seats on HAC D.

Assuming he wins reelection, Rep. Ken Calvert (R CA) will become Chairman of HAC D after serving as the Ranking Member. He is likely to increase development in areas of cybersecurity, space, and artificial intelligence, and continue to emphasize the desire for American superiority on land, sea, air, and a new technological dominance. Look for HAC D to increase oversight efforts on the Biden Administration to reduce overhead, improve acquisition processes, and increase efficiency in implementing capabilities. Should Rep. Calvert lose his reelection campaign, several senior Republican members from within the Full Committee will vie for Chair of HAC D.

DEFENSE HEALTH

OVERVIEW

The legislative outlook for defense health policies and funding in the 118th Congress will see some subtle, but important, changes. A shift to Republican control of the chamber will likely increase the topline funding level for at least the House version of the Defense Appropriations Act in FY 2024.

In the Senate, the Republican leadership shifts in SAC D and SASC may result in a different approach to both defense health spending and policy due as Sens. Susan Collins (R ME) and Roger Wicker (R MS), both long time supporters of medical research including the Congressionally Directed Medical Research Programs (CDMRP) take their respective helms. Military medical research and CDMRPs have suffered in years past when they have been targeted for cuts by previous SASC Republican leadership. Such reductions decreased under Sen. Jim Inhofe’s (R OK) leadership and are likely to be banished under Sen. Wicker’s. The SASC may also moderate its position related to the transition of medical research away from the Services and to DHA control. The HASC has expressed some skepticism about the transition as the Army continues to seek delays and pursue legislative relief to retain functions, personnel, and resources aligned to medical readiness.

While medical research policy may see a shift in 2023, expect Congress to continue the scrutiny of medical operations, including cuts to medical billets and the deployment and integration of the Genesis electronic health record. The HASC, SASC, HAC D, and SAC D have all in recent years required studies on this front or withheld funding to rebuke Department of Defense activities in this space.

Inside the Department, the outcome of the midterm elections will not immediately serve to materially shift transformations of the Military Health System related to research,

development, acquisition, logistics, or clinical care. The Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Health Affairs will release the FY 2023 budget priorities in January. Meanwhile, the Senate FY 2023 NDAA, as proposed, would transition medical education and training and logistics to the Defense Health Agency (DHA). However, the transition of the U.S. Army Medical Research and Development Command (USAMRDC) to the DHA has been delayed until Jan 2023, due to the Army’s continued pursual of legislative relief to retain functions, personnel, and resources aligned to medical readiness.

GENERAL SUMMATION

• Shipbuilding and funding will be prioritized with Sens. Wicker and Collins assuming senior Defense Committee positions.

• Several retirements on the House and Senate Appropriations Committees will cause shifts in membership, but do not expect significant policy changes within the defense subcommittees.

• Pending legislation further supports consolidation and transition of medical functions under the DHA, which may enjoy increased prioritization and funding.

EDUCATION

OVERVIEW

At time of publication of this report, Republicans are on track to regain control of the House of Representatives for the first time since 2018, by very slim margins. The outcome of the House elections will not be known until all votes are counted and several toss up races are called. The content of this report will offer insight into both a Republican controlled or Democratic controlled Senate in the 118th Congress and reflects a new Republican majority in the House.

Republican control of the House will bring increased oversight of Secretary Miguel Cardona and the Department of Education writ large, especially from the House Committee on Education and Labor, where Rep. Virginia Foxx (R NC) is expected to become Chair.

KEY TAKEAWAYS



In the House, a Republican majority will likely result in education funding cuts and oversight of Democratic education policy from the last two years.



A split Congress will stall significant education policy action.

In the K 12 space, Republicans will continue to highlight the impact of pandemic school closures on children’s mental and physical health, while Democrats will continue to defend the closures.

In higher education, the Biden Administration’s signature policy is targeted student debt cancelation, which is currently under judicial scrutiny led by Republican criticism that the policy is a federal overreach. Regardless of the outcome of ongoing litigation, a Republican House majority will continue to assert that the program is unfair to student borrowers who have already paid off their debt. However, a Republican controlled House and a Democratic administration will ultimately limit substantial action on this and other education legislation.

SENATE HE LP COMMITTEE

With current Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions (HELP) Chair Patty Murray (D WA) seeking leadership on the Senate Committee on Appropriations, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I VT) is poised to assume a position of leadership on the Committee. Democrats will continue to support the Department’s proposed Title IX rule changes, increasing the Pell Grant, and student debt relief. Sen. Sanders has also been vocal in his support for universal free early childhood and postsecondary education but getting his moderate Democratic colleagues on board will be a challenge.

Republican leadership on the Committee is expected to be Sen. Rand Paul (R KY) following the retirement of Sen. Richard Burr (R NC). This will set up a contentious relationship between Sen. Paul, an advocate for state and local government jurisdiction over education, and Sen. Sanders, a strong proponent of the Department.

HOUSE EDUCATION AND LABOR COMMITTEE

Current Ranking Member Virginia Foxx (R NC) will become Chair of the House Committee on Education and Labor, and as in previous power shifts, the Committee will likely be renamed as the Committee on Education and the Workforce. Rep. Foxx will focus on Republican education priorities, such as investigations on how pandemic school closures impacted K 12 and college students. In addition to more recent issues like critical race theory and parental influence over school curricula, the Committee will continue to focus on traditional Republican education priorities, including school choice, career and technical education (CTE), and teacher shortages. These last two items present an opportunity for bipartisan support, along with congressional oversight of Elementary and Secondary Education Relief (ESSER) funding distribution.

In higher education, Republicans will focus on intellectual property theft and foreign influence by Chinese researchers in American universities. Increasing access to STEM, CTE, and vocational training may be an opportunity for bipartisan action, but Democratic aspirations of increasing the Pell Grant and protecting undocumented students will face obstacles in a Republican controlled House.

SENATE APPROPRIATIONS COMMITTEE

With the current Senate Appropriations Committee Subcommittee on Labor, Health and Human Services, Education, and Related Agencies (Labor HHS) Chair Patty Murray seeking to gain leadership on the full Committee, there are several Democratic prospects to gain authority either as Chair or Ranking Member on the Subcommittee. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D NH) is next in line based on seniority but may choose to keep her position on the Subcommittee on Commerce, Justice, and Science, given Democratic Caucus rules prevent her from assuming leadership on both subcommittees. This would put some of the Subcommittee’s junior members like Sens. Jeff Merkley (D OR), Brian Schatz (D HI), or Tammy Baldwin (D WI) in a position to vie for authority on the Committee.

Both current Subcommittee Ranking Member Roy Blunt (R MO) and Sen. Richard Shelby (R AL), are retiring after this term. This leaves somewhat of a vacuum for Republican leadership on the Labor HHS Subcommittee, but with Sens. Lindsey Graham (R SC) and Jerry Moran (R KS) both planning to stay in their other subcommittee leadership roles, Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R WV) is the most likely candidate to lead the Republicans on Labor HHS.

HOUSE APPROPRIATIONS COMMITTEE

House Republican control will reprioritize federal funding from the Labor HHS bill to fund defense priorities. As a result, education funding could see large cuts to continue increasing National Institutes of Health (NIH) funding. This could set up a clash with their counterparts on the Senate Appropriations Committee depending on who gains control of the Senate, as well as with the Biden Administration, both of which will strongly oppose the redistribution. Republicans will also direct education funding toward school choice, including charter schools; however, there may be room for bipartisan support on special education and rural education

funding. Chair Rosa DeLauro (D CT) has historically worked well with current Ranking Member Tom Cole (R OK)., Rep. Cole will require a waiver from Republican Conference leadership to Chair the Committee given the Conference’s rules on term limits. If he is unable to obtain the waiver, the top contender for chairmanship is Rep. Mike Simpson (R ID).

GENERAL SUMMATION

The potential of a divided government will limit significant education policy in the 118th Congress. Democrats will focus on supporting Biden’s student debt relief plan. A Republican controlled House will likely refocus priorities from education initiatives to defense related issues.

ENERGY & ENVIRONMENT

OVERVIEW

At time of publication of this report, Republicans are on track to regain control of the House of Representatives for the first time since 2018, by very slim margins. The outcome of the House elections will not be known until all votes are counted and several toss up races are called. The content of this report will offer insight into both a Republican controlled or Democratic controlled Senate in the 118th Congress and reflects a new Republican majority in the House.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

A Republican controlled House will hamper the Administration’s legislative and regulatory agenda. 

The Biden Administration will explore options to promote a clean energy agenda through Executive Orders and regulatory authority. 

The Biden Administration’s approach to energy and environmental policy has centered on increased agency and environmental regulation, as well as investment in clean energy and climate equity projects. However, the new Republican House majority will intensify oversight of the Biden Administration and its perceived anti fossil fuel policies which Republican members directly attribute to high domestic energy prices. Increased Republican oversight is expected to include scrutiny of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) and Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) related spending at the Department of Energy (DOE) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), as well as fossil energy production on federal lands. This divided Congress and Administration will produce limited opportunities to advance comprehensive energy and environmental policy, as legislation will need to be narrowly tailored with solid bipartisan support to progress.

Republicans will look to increase domestic energy production to lower costs for consumers and provide energy security at home and abroad amid the ongoing war in Ukraine.

SENATE AUTHORIZATION COMMITTEES

In the 118th Congress, Sen. Tom Carper (D DE) will continue his position as the lead Democrat of the Environment and Public Works (EPW) Committee, while Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R WV) will remain lead Republican. Look for the Committee to consider such key policy issues as the implementation of IIJA and IRA, environmental justice initiatives, and the remediation of pollution in underserved communities across the country. EPW will also hold several hearings to consider moving political appointees through the nomination process for several notable government agencies, including the EPA, the Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ), and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Expect Senate Republicans on the Committee to dedicate efforts toward examining the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) with initial attention to include any changes needed to the policies and procedures EPA uses when assessing small refinery exemption petitions. Sens. Carper and Capito will continue their bipartisan collaboration on recycling policy even as they attempt to manage more contentious issues such

as chemical regulation under the Toxic Substance Control Act (TSCA), the Clean Air Act (CAA), and climate change issues.

The Energy and Natural Resources Committee will continue under the leadership of Sen. Joe Manchin (D WV) as lead Democrat and Sen. John Barrasso (R WY) as lead Republican. The Committee will continue to focus on a range of issues, from mining and critical mineral production to energy generation and permitting reform. Sens. Manchin and Capito will also continue their attempts to bring the Mountain Valley Pipeline to their home state of West Virginia. Additionally. Anticipate a continued tension between Democrats and Republicans over the topic of energy security as it impacts decision making on offshore leasing and sizeable district projects like the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.

The Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee will see Sen. Maria Cantwell (D WA) remain as the lead Democrat for the Committee. Sen. Ted Cruz (R TX) is anticipated to become the lead Republican, in lieu of Sen. Roger Wicker (R MS), who is transitioning to the Armed Services Committee with the retirement of Sen. Jim Inhofe (R OK). This Committee will prioritize issues related to the volatility of oil and natural gas markets, the remediation of PFAS and other hazardous chemicals, and market oversight on a range of commercial issues. Look to this Committee to also expand the already sizable spotlight on China as it works its way through the implementation of the CHIPS and Science Act.

HOUSE AUTHORIZATION COMMITTEES

Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R WA) will become Chair of Energy and Commerce Committee, exchanging roles with Rep. Frank Pallone (D NJ), who will now serve as Ranking Member. As has been the case previously, this Committee will serve as the primary battleground in the House of Representatives for the ongoing debate over climate change, energy prices, and production. Like their counterparts at the EPW Committee, this Committee will encounter discussions on the oversight of the Biden Administration, examining the effects its energy policies have on energy security, affordability, and reliability. Reviving the Republican theme of an “all of the above” energy strategy, the Committee will also push for increasing domestic fossil fuel production to lower gas prices. This strategy attempts to bridge the gap in the U S until renewable and alternative sources of energy, along with technologies that increase energy storage and efficiency, can provide the capacity to meet the nation’s baseload energy needs. Look for Republicans to move swiftly to advance policies that aim to drive down energy prices by immediately boosting domestic energy production. Expect this Committee to take a renewed interest in permitting and regulatory issues, and to promote a strong domestic critical mineral supply chain. Even with a leadership change, the Committee will continue to address its traditional areas of jurisdiction such as the RFS, Safe Drinking Water Act (SDWA), Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA), and Superfund and Brownfield sites

Rep. Bruce Westerman (R AR) will become the Chairman of the Natural Resources Committee with Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D AZ) serving as the Ranking Member. Chairman Westerman has been at the forefront of the Republican Party’s energy and environmental debates and will focus on restoring energy independence and conservation. This Committee will also feature continued

efforts by Democrats to focus the debate on environmental justice and the impacts of fossil fuels, fracking, and pollution on low income, minority communities.

The Select Committee on the Climate Crisis created in 2019 by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D CA) to examine climate change is expected to be scrapped by the Republican majority, but incoming Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R CA) has yet to decide whether to retain it. Rep. Garret Graves (R LA), who is likely to become Chairman of this Committee, has privately urged Rep. McCarthy to keep the panel. If kept, the panel would likely undergo a name change that excludes the word “climate” such as the Select Committee on Energy Security and Independence. The Committee previously existed from 2006 until the beginning of the 112th Congress in Jan 2011, when Republicans regained the majority.

SENATE APPROPRIATIONS CO MMITTEE

The Senate Appropriations Committee Subcommittee on Energy and Water Development will remain under the leadership of Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D CA), with accompanying Sen. John Kennedy (R LA) as lead Republican. Leadership on the Subcommittee on Interior, Environment, and Related Agencies will also remain the same, with Sen. Jeff Merkley (D OR) and Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R AK) leading their respective parties. For the Subcommittee on Commerce, Justice, Science, and Related Agencies (CJS), Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D NH) may choose to continue serving as top Democrat with Sen. Jerry Moran (R KS) as the top Republican. The looming question of who will lead the Labor, Health and Human Services, Education, and Related Agencies (Labor HHS) Subcommittee; many assume that Sen. Shaheen will keep CJS, but Labor HHS has a significant budget and is thus a desirable post.

HOUSE APPROPRIATIONS COMMITTEE

Leadership of the Energy and Water Development Subcommittee in the House has shifted to Rep. Mike Simpson (R ID) as Chair and Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D OH) as Ranking Member. Rep. Simpson needs to obtain a waiver to stay on as Chair. If he is unable, Reps. Hal Rogers (R KY), Tom Cole (R OK), and Mario Diaz Balart (R FL) are viable candidates for the Chair role. The Interior, Environment, and Related Agencies Subcommittee will be led by Rep. David Joyce (R OH) as Chair, with Rep. Chellie Pingree (D ME) as the Ranking Member. The Subcommittee partly oversees the EPA and will be a battleground for discussions on allocating record levels of funding. Although Rep. Joyce supports certain initiatives like the Great Lakes cleanup, he has also expressed interest in notable investigations into the EPA. The Subcommittee’s jurisdiction over funding for the Council on Environmental Quality and the Chemical Safety and Hazard Investigation Board will likely lead to rollbacks of certain environmental protections levied by Democrats over the last two years.

GENERAL SUMMATION

• Senate Democrats will continue to push the Biden Administration’s clean energy and environmental agenda and if they retain the majority, will nominate individuals for governmental office who will move that agenda forward.

• House Republicans are committed to an aggressive agenda intended to curtail energy costs for families, create jobs, lower emissions, and provide energy security at home and abroad through harnessing American energy innovation and resources.

• Common ground may be discovered on issues related to permitting, critical minerals, and conservation, but expect increased partisan dialogue on renewable energy goals and environmental oversight.

HEALTH

OVERVIEW

At time of publication of this report, Republicans are on track to regain control of the House of Representatives for the first time since 2018, by very slim margins. The outcome of the House elections will not be known until all votes are counted and several toss up races are called. The content of this report will offer insight into both a Republican controlled or Democratic controlled Senate in the 118th Congress and reflects a new Republican majority in the House.

With a new majority in the House, Republicans will focus on narrow, yet significant changes to many policies, including Medicare physician reimbursement reforms, improving access to behavioral health and substance use disorder (SUD) care, addressing workforce shortages, and examining the future of the 340B Drug Pricing Program. As they look ahead to 2024 elections, House Republicans outlined these policy priorities and more in their recently published “Commitment to America” plan.

KEY TAKEAWAYS





Committee leadership will change significantly.

Republicans have abandoned fundamental health care reforms and, with both parties looking ahead to the 2024 elections, bipartisan cooperation on issues of mutual interest could increase.



With Republicans in control of at least one chamber, increased oversight of the Biden Administration will be a priority.

This Republican majority will also work to expedite an end to the COVID 19 Public Health Emergency (PHE) which could create conditions for bipartisanship to determine the future of telehealth coverage and other pandemic related policy waivers. Republican lawmakers have already signaled they may seek to leverage the next debt limit increase to rein in federal Medicare and Medicaid spending, which could have implications for provider reimbursements. Protecting the recent Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization Supreme Court decision, which ruled there was not a constitutional right to abortion, is a priority item for Republicans, and will be an issue of strong partisan disagreement.

Democrats will look for opportunities to highlight the Dobbs decision and advance other health care priorities to offer a contrast with Republicans should they remain in control of the Senate. Protecting access to care and lowering out of pocket costs will continue to be central priorities. In this context, Democrats will seek to preserve the Affordable Care Act’s health coverage safeguards for pre existing conditions and preventive services. Democrats will counter Republican attempts to restrain entitlement spending with calls to examine the rapid growth in Medicare Advantage spending and the value to the Medicare program and its beneficiaries.

With Republicans in control of the House, oversight of federal agencies is expected to increase at a time when Democrats must rely on the Biden Administration to advance their health care priorities through rulemaking. The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) will

continue to address and implement patient privacy protections by updating the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA), requiring reductions and adjustments to Medicare provider reimbursements, and implementing provisions from the Inflation Reduction Act to address the high costs of prescription drugs.

SENATE AUTHORIZATION COMMITTEES

In the Senate, work on federal health programs is split between the Senate Committees on Finance and on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions (HELP). Sen. Ron Wyden (D OR) is expected to retain his position as the top Democrat on the Finance Committee. Sen. Mike Crapo (R ID) will then continue as the Republican lead on the Committee. Democratic priorities for the Committee will include legislative efforts to improve access to behavioral health and SUD care, expand access to telehealth, ensure the pipeline for the health care workforce, examine the growth of the Medicare Advantage Program, and further reduce the cost of prescription drugs. At time of publication of this report, Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D NV) is the only Committee member who has a race still outstanding.

Sen. Crapo is an advocate for equitable access to quality health care, including cancer care, as he is a survivor himself. He has long called for federal tax reform for health coverage and supports state innovation of health solutions. Sen. Wyden’s long track record of working across party lines could result in multiple pieces of bipartisan legislation produced by the Finance Committee, particularly in the areas of mental health, telehealth, and stabilizing Medicare provider payment. However, the two parties would diverge on Medicaid issues. Despite abandoning fundamental Medicaid reforms, Republicans will still look to rein in federal spending for the program, specifically on efforts to revisit Medicaid’s federal disproportionate share hospital (DSH) funding allocations to states. Republicans will be reluctant to continue funding territorial health priorities at the current level. The onus to provide a longer-term and more stable solution to address Medicaid funding for territories, most notably Puerto Rico, will rest with the White House, depending on who gains control of the Senate. The Committee is also expected to examine workforce shortage issues within its purview, including whether to expand the Medicare graduate medical education (GME) program. With the departures of Sens. Richard Burr (R NC), Rob Portman (R OH), Ben Sasse (R NE), and Pat Toomey (R PA), the Republican Committee roster will be stocked with new additions. The loss of senior voices on the committee could result in enhanced profiles on key health issues for incumbent members, including Sens. Tim Scott (R SC), James Lankford (R OK), Todd Young (R IN), and John Barrasso (R WY).

The Finance Committee is also expected to move forward with examining COVID related policy waivers, such as Medicare telehealth flexibilities, to determine the policies that could be extended or made permanent. Earlier this year, the House passed a telehealth package that extends current telehealth provisions and flexibilities through 2024. Given the expected ending of the PHE next year, and the 151 day extension of flexibilities granted by the Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2022, the Committee will likely work on a bipartisan basis to address the long term treatment of these policies in the new Congress.

On the HELP Committee, leadership changes are on tap regardless of election outcomes. Current Chair, Sen. Patty Murray (D WA), is expected to forego another leadership term as the top Democrat and assume a leadership position on the Senate Committee on Appropriations. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I VT) is next in line to take over as the Committee’s lead Democrat. With Sen. Burr’s retirement, Sen. Rand Paul (R KY) is the next most senior Republican and could ascend to the top slot. Sen. Paul is also next in Republican seniority on the Senate Committee on Homeland Security & Governmental Affairs and, as such, he could choose to lead that panel instead of the HELP Committee. In the event of this, Sen. Bill Cassidy (R LA) could lead the Republican side of the HELP Committee.

A HELP Committee led by Sens. Paul and Sanders would represent the far ideological ends of each party. Sen. Sanders will push a progressive agenda with an intent to influence the Democratic Party’s health care priorities in advance of the 2024 elections. He would likely center the Committee’s work on lowering health costs for Americans. Committee Democrats would emphasize expanding access to care and pursue additional avenues to lower prescription drug prices. Sens. Bob Casey (D PA), Tammy Baldwin (D WI), and Chris Murphy (D CT) could emerge as key influencers of the Committee’s agenda.

Should Sen. Paul remain at the HELP Committee as the top Republican, the Committee will engage heavily in oversight of the Biden Administration and, as a fiscal hawk, he will seek to limit government spending. Sen. Paul has also been a leader in discussions regarding HIPAA, patient privacy, and health IT broadly, including being an outspoken opponent of patient identifiers. HHS is expected to finalize the HIPPA Notice of Proposed Rule Making next year, and it is likely that, under Sen. Paul’s leadership, the committee may act in response. Republican priorities would also align with holding additional hearings on the origin of the COVID 19 pandemic.

Under Sens. Murray and Burr’s leadership, the HELP Committee announced efforts to address mental health, which Sen. Cassidy is expected to continue. As a physician, Sen. Cassidy has been a vocal protector of patient privacy issues and authored the bipartisan Health Data Use and Privacy Commission Act in an ongoing effort to modernize health privacy laws. As the Committee’s Republican lead, Sen. Cassidy could move the Committee to debate reforms to the 340B Drug Pricing Program, including calls for additional transparency and clarity for contract pharmacy arrangements. The Committee is also expected to examine workforce shortage issues within its purview, including expanding Teaching Health Center Graduate Medical Education (THCGME) and Children’s Hospital Graduate Medical Education (CHGME) programs.

HOUSE AUTHORIZATION COMMITTEES

In the House, the health care portfolio is divided between the Committee on Energy and Commerce and the Committee on Ways and Means. Change in party control means the committees will have new chairs in the 118th Congress. Within the Energy and Commerce Committee, current Ranking Member Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R WA) will take the gavel, while current Chair Frank Pallone (D NJ) will become Ranking Member. Rep. Pallone will lead Democrats in blocking Republican attempts to investigate the Biden Administration’s management of the COVID 19 pandemic, reform the 340B Drug Pricing Program, and curb

federal Medicaid spending. On Medicaid, Democrats will continue to advance adequate Medicaid funding for U.S. territories and seek legislation to stave off the $8 billion cut to Medicaid DSH funding slated for Fiscal Year (FY) 2024. Democrats will also seek to preserve the Administration’s energy and climate health care initiatives and advance patient privacy protections.

As co Chair of the House Rural Health Caucus, Rep. McMorris Rodgers has been an advocate for expanding access to affordable health care in rural communities. She champions the THCGME program as an avenue to address the physician shortage in rural and underserved areas. Under her leadership, it is expected that the Committee will seek solutions to workforce challenges, specifically expanding the graduate medical education program. As a mother to a child with down syndrome, Rep. McMorris Rodgers is a staunch supporter of protecting individuals with disabilities and ensuring access to comprehensive care. Under her current leadership as the Ranking Member, Committee Republicans issued a request for information (RFI) on ways in which to bolster disability policies and protections. It is expected she will also continue the Committee’s efforts to address and bring attention to the mental health and fentanyl crises. Rep. Brett Guthrie (R KY) will quarterback the Republican health care agenda as Chair of the Subcommittee on Health.

The Energy and Commerce Committee has jurisdiction over activities of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), the National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Rep. McMorris Rodgers has been vocal about her intentions as Chair to conduct aggressive oversight of the Biden Administration. Rep. Morgan Griffith (R VA) will helm the Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations and lead efforts to scrutinize the Administration’s management of FDA, NIH, and CDC, among other agencies.

In the Ways and Means Committee, with the retiring of Ranking Member Kevin Brady (R TX), leadership is a toss up between long standing Committee members, Reps. Jason Smith (R MO), Vern Buchanan (R FL), and Adrian Smith (R NE). The perceived front runners are Reps. Buchanan and Jason Smith. Current Chair Richard Neal (D MA) will shift to Ranking Member. Legislative and priority differences between Reps. Buchanan and Smith vary minimally. As the top Republican on the House Committee on the Budget, Rep. Smith is a fiscal hawk and will likely be strict on government spending. In the context of Medicare spending, he will have an eye toward reforms that focus on equity in value of payments across provider groups, particularly in underserved areas. Rep. Buchanan, the current Subcommittee on Health Ranking Member, is also co chair of the Republican Healthy Future Task Force. Rep. Neal will lead a pared down Democratic roster after retirements and the loss of slots that accompany the minority side of the Committee. Democrats will prioritize increasing access to health care, specifically working to restock the pipeline of future clinicians to address health care labor shortages and call for increasing the number of Medicare graduate medical education residency slots. Committee Democrats will play defense against Republican efforts to frustrate the Administration’s initiatives to improve health equity within the Medicare program.

Under the leadership of either Rep. Smith or Rep. Buchanan, the Committee will address physician payment reform, specifically the Medicare Access and CHIP Reauthorization Act (MACRA). The Committee will also work to address rural health care, including access to

telehealth and extending flexibilities, and strengthening Medicare Advantage plans. Notably, Rep. Brady’s retirement could impact the level of bipartisan cooperation among Committee members. Reps. Brady and Neal worked together across party lines on certain issues, and it remains to be seen if the spirit of cooperation will continue with new Republican leadership.

SENATE APPROPRIATIONS COMMITTEE

The Senate will likely have new leaders on both sides of the Senate Committee on Appropriations Subcommittee on Labor, Health and Human Services, Education, and Related Agencies (Labor HHS). Sen. Murray, the current Chair, is expected to yield her role on the Subcommittee when she ascends to the leadership of the full Appropriations Committee. Possible successors to lead the Democratic side of the Committee include Sens. Jeff Merkley (D OR), Brian Schatz (D HI), and Tammy Baldwin (D WI). Sen. Roy Blunt (D MO), the current Ranking Member who is retiring, could be succeeded by Sen. Jerry Moran (R KS) or Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R WV).

HOUSE APPROPRIATIONS COMMITTEE

In the House, Chair Rosa DeLauro (D CT) will shift to Ranking Member. Current Ranking Member Tom Cole (R OK) will need a waiver from conference leadership to assume the chairmanship of the Subcommittee. If he does not receive it, a possible replacement includes Rep. Mike Simpson (R ID).

House Republicans will seek to cut the Subcommittee’s allocation below the FY 2023 level while shifting more funding to defense programs. That effort will set up a dramatic clash with President Biden, whose domestic discretionary spending agenda is concentrated in the Labor HHS appropriations bill. Other flashpoints could include funding for family planning and CDC, while NIH should continue to remain a bipartisan priority.

GENERAL SUMMATION

• Republican control of one or both chambers of Congress will not result in structural health care reforms.

• New leaders will oversee the House and Senate health care committees.

• A Republican takeover will not spell the end of bipartisanship on priority health care issues.

HOMELAND SECURITY & IMMIGRATION

OVERVIEW

At time of publication of this report, Republicans are on track to regain control of the House of Representatives for the first time since 2018, by very slim margins. The outcome of the House elections will not be known until all votes are counted and several toss up races are called. The content of this report will offer insight into both a Republican controlled or Democratic controlled Senate in the 118th Congress and reflects a new Republican majority in the House.

KEY TAKEAWAYS



The next Congress is likely to prioritize border security, cybersecurity, supply chain risks, threats from China, c UAS, and transportation security.



Border security remains one of the most challenging issues facing the 118th Congress and a top priority across both parties. With a Republican controlled House, critics of the Biden Administration’s border policies are expected to take center stage. The record numbers of migrants seeking asylum, in addition to the rise of fentanyl and other illicit substances crossing ports of entry, will continue to dominate border security conversations in both the House and Senate.

A Republican led Congress is expected to focus on foreign terrorist threats, compared to the 117th Congress’s focus on domestic and far right extremism.

Transportation security will remain at the forefront of policy conversation, specifically airport safety and counter unmanned aerial systems (c UAS). The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) will continue its push to increase pay for its screener workforce to bring it more in line with other federal employees. Look for the elimination of the 9/11 Passenger Security Fee to remain an Administration priority, but a Congressional jurisdictional point of contention. Like other federal agencies, Department of Homeland Security (DHS) programs and performance will be scrutinized under the Republican controlled House. Congressional inquiries into Customs & Border Protection’s (CBP) border analyses and assessment of the homeland threat landscape are also expected, with a Republican focused emphasis on foreign terrorism, as well as violence and gang activity from immigrants. Democratic members are expected to continue to prioritize domestic terrorism and far right extremism.

DHS is likely to further a technology driven border security approach, as CBP faces continuous staffing shortages, and the U.S. furthers a national focus toward enhancing cybersecurity supply chains.

SENATE AUTHORIZATION COMMITTEES

The Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs (HSGAC) shares jurisdiction over homeland security with the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation and the Senate Committee on the Judiciary. At this time, Senate control has yet to be determined. As such, HSGAC is expected to retain Sen. Gary Peters (D MI) as top Democrat, and with Sen. Rob Portman (R OH) retiring, Sen. Rand Paul (R KY) and Sen. James Lankford (R OK) are next in line to serve as Republican lead of HSGAC. However, as Sen. Paul is considering a top position on the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions, Sen. Lankford is the likely candidate to fill the role of Republican lead on HSGAC.

Democrats will continue addressing staffing shortages at CBP and encourage additional airport security measures. As the current lead Republican on the HSGAC Subcommittee on Government Operations and Border Management, Sen. Lankford is an outspoken critic of the Biden Administration’s border policies, and will continue to hold committee hearings with DHS, CBP, and Immigrations and Customs Enforcement (ICE) leadership.

On the Senate Judiciary Committee, Sen. Dick Durbin (D IL) is expected to remain as lead Democrat on the Committee On the Senate Commerce Committee Sen. Maria Cantwell (D WA) is predicted to remain as the top Democrat, and there is a possibility current Ranking Member Roger Wicker (R MS) will leave to take over a top Republican role in the Senate Armed Services Committee, opening the lead Republican spot to another member.

HOUSE AUTHORIZATION COMMITTEES

Rep. Bennie Thompson (D MS), Chair of the House Committee on Homeland Security (CHS), was reelected and is likely to remain in a top position within the Committee. With Ranking Member John Katko (R NY) retiring, the possible contenders include Reps. Dan Bishop (R NC), Dan Crenshaw (R TX), Michael Guest (R MS), and Clay Higgins (R LA). Rep. Crenshaw is a former U.S. Navy SEAL and currently represents a district west of Houston. Rep. Higgins is a former police officer with ties to House leadership. As lead Republican, expect a focus on border security, a new state and local cybersecurity grant program, enhancing border staffing, augmenting existing technology at ports of entry and funding ICE.

As in the Senate, authorizing jurisdiction for DHS has always been split among several House committees. The Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure, with jurisdiction over the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the U.S. Coast Guard, will likely be led by Rep. Sam Graves (R MO). On the minority side, Del. Eleanor Holmes Norton (D DC) will likely go up against Rep. Rick Larsen (D WA). If Del. Norton gets the top spot, it will be the first time a delegate leads a committee. The House Committee on the Judiciary, with jurisdiction over immigration issues, will likely be led by Rep. Jim Jordan (R OH) and Rep. Jerry Nadler (D NY).

SENATE APPROPRIATIONS C O MMITTEE

Sen. Chris Murphy (D CT) will likely remain as Democratic lead of the Senate Committee on Appropriations Subcommittee on Homeland Security. It is expected that there will be a reshuffling of Democratic members on the Subcommittee, due to the retirement of full Committee Chair Patrick Leahy (D VT) and Sen. Patty Murray (D WA) likely moving into a more senior role on the full Senate Appropriations Committee. Sen. Shelley Moore Capito’s (R WV) role as current Ranking Member of the Subcommittee is also subject to change following the midterm election, as she is likely to transition to the Subcommittee on Labor, Health and Human Services, Education, and Related Agencies. It is anticipated that Sen. Cindy Hyde Smith (R MS), current member of the Homeland Security Subcommittee, will become the top Republican on the Committee.

Democratic and Republican leadership in the Senate are expected to address similar priorities, including border security, border technology, and cybersecurity threats. However, Republicans are likely to further discussions surrounding the border wall as it relates to FY 2024 funding.

HOUSE APPROPRIATIONS C O MMITTEE

The retirement of House Committee on Appropriations Subcommittee on Homeland Security Chair Lucille Roybal Allard (D CA) opens the top Democratic seat. It is likely that slot will go to Rep. Henry Cuellar (D TX) after winning his reelection bid. His appointment to leadership for the Subcommittee would not be without controversy, as he is sometimes at odds with the Democratic Party on border issues.

Current Ranking Member Chuck Fleischmann (R TN) will likely take the Subcommittee gavel as the Republicans take control of the House next session. There could be a shakeup of leadership across all subcommittees if members seeking waivers to continue serving in their respective roles do not receive them.

Border security will be a focus of the Subcommittee and, as in prior years, building a wall along the Southern border could be a contentious issue. Other issues facing the Subcommittee will be ICE bed capacity, FEMA funding to rebuild after recent disasters, and oversight over large Coast Guard procurement programs.

IMMIGRATION

OVERVIEW

Immigration reform will remain a top priority for both parties. In the case of a Republican Senate and House, there will be an eager Congress to address the Biden Administration’s immigration policies; question DHS, CBP, and ICE leadership; and advocate for increased funding along the Southern border. Republican members on the House Committee on Homeland Security, Subcommittee on Border Security, Facilitation, & Operations are expected

to push for supplemental resources to bolster the Southern border, revisit undocumented individuals who seek to enter or who unlawfully enter the U.S. during the COVID 19 Public Health Emergency and who are subjected to expulsion under the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) public health authority (Title 42), advocate for additional border staff, and further invest into border technology. House Republicans are likely to provide more directives to DHS and CBP, with possible supplemental funding. Democratic members are predicted to remain focused on border technology advancements, staffing shortages, and addressing workforce challenges within DHS and CBP.

The House Judiciary Committee Subcommittee on Immigration and Citizenship and Senate Judiciary Committee Subcommittee on Immigrations, Citizenship, and Border Safety will remain key players in immigration reform laws and policy.

GENERAL SUMMATION

• Border security policy will be a prominent topic for the 118th Congress.

• Technological developments and cybersecurity are expected to have greater utility in homeland security related affairs.

• Policy surrounding immigration reform will vary depending on the outcome of the midterm elections, specifically in the Senate.

• Workforce and pay challenges in TSA, CBP, and DHS, will continue to affect the efficacy of each agency in executing their key priorities.

INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS

OVERVIEW

At time of publication of this report, Republicans are on track to regain control of the House of Representatives for the first time since 2018, by very a slim margin. The outcome of the House and Senate elections will not be known until all votes are counted and several toss up races are called. The content of this report will offer insight into both a Republican controlled or Democratic controlled Senate in the 118th Congress and reflect a new Republican majority in the House.

KEY TAKEAWAYS



FY 2023 SFOPS spending bill awaits resolution in the lame duck session.

 There will be a continued focus on sanctioning Russia and aid to Ukraine.

 China and its global influence will be at the forefront of the policy agenda.

Foreign affairs can be contentious in a period of divided government, and we expect the 118th Congress to be no different. The list of geopolitical hotspots continues to grow: China, Taiwan, Ukraine, North Korea, Russia, and Iran, to name a few. As challenges continue to arise throughout the globe, engagement remains multifaceted; from trade to aid, to countering influence of non democratic ideals and values, while maintaining global leadership and helping to open global market opportunities for U.S. businesses throughout the world. Policymakers will likely continue bipartisan efforts to build food security, strengthen rule of law and civil society, prevent deadly disease outbreaks, support Taiwan, and expand direct U.S. Taiwan relations, prioritize diplomatic and development efforts working to isolate and counter China’s global influence as well as continue to promote freedom, democracy, and security making stronger and more stable communities around the world.

Republican control of the House will heavily focus on oversight of the Biden Administration’s actions in the withdraw from Afghanistan, assistance to Ukraine, global economic downturn, international terrorism, large numbers of immigrants, migrants, and refugees coming to the U.S., violent extremism, and Iran’s nuclear program. Support for foreign assistance writ large and contributions to multilateral organizations and activities will be curtailed.

It is expected that House Republicans will establish a select committee on China to focus attention on this growing rival to the U.S. The panel will be empowered to investigate a range of issues including the origins of the coronavirus pandemic, foreign investment by U.S. companies in China, Chinese state owned companies’ purchase of U.S. farmland, reshoring supply chains, and IP theft.

Republicans could reduce U.S. military aid to Ukraine as they work to reduce government spending across the board. Republican Leader Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R CA) said during the campaign that the U.S. will not write a “blank check” to Ukraine, and more than a quarter of the House Republican Conference voted against the $40 billion Ukraine aid package in May 2022.

SENATE FOREIGN RELATIONS COMMITTEE

With control of the Senate still undecided leadership of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations (SFRC) will remain stable amongst Democrats and Republicans. Sen. Jim Risch (R ID) will continue as the top SFRC Republican, and Sen. Bob Menendez (D NJ) will remain as the top SFRC Democrat.

HOUSE FOREIGN AFFAIRS COMMITTEE

Rep. Michael McCaul (R TX) and Rep. Gregory Meeks (D NY) are slated to continue leading the House Committee on Foreign Affairs (HFAC). With Republicans taking the majority in the House the leadership roles will flip and Rep. McCaul takes the gavel as Chair and Rep. Meeks as Ranking Member.

SENATE APPROPRIATIONS COMMITTEE

On the Senate Committee on Appropriations Subcommittee on State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs, Sen. Chris Coons (D DE) and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R SC) are expected to continue in their respective leadership roles.

HOUSE APPROPRIATIONS COMMITTEE

In the House Committee on Appropriations Subcommittee on State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs, Rep. Barbara Lee (D CA) will stay on as the top Democrat and Rep. Hal Rogers (D KY) will stay as the top Republican, with Rep. Rogers will likely take the gavel as Chair. There is potential for subcommittee shifts among several senior Republican appropriators due to subcommittee term limits. Rep. Rogers will need to secure a waiver from the Republican leadership and ratified by the Steering Committee to retain his position as lead Republican on the Subcommittee. Assuming the waiver is not granted it is expected that Rep. Mario Diaz Balart (R FL), who is also term limited on his Transportation, Housing and Urban Development, and Related Agencies Subcommittee, will take the gavel. Additionally, the number of allotted spots on the subcommittee and the ratio of slots allocated between the two parties will change in the 118th Congress, with Republicans gaining seats and Democrats losing seats. This will likely force the more junior members of the Subcommittee, such as Reps. Jennifer Wexton (D VA) and Adriano Espaillat (D NY), to leave the Subcommittee.

GENERAL SUMMATION

If Republicans win a majority in both chambers, keep an eye out for increasing pressure on China U.S. relations and the potential creation of a China Commission to create more oversight over Chinese market control.

TAX & DEBT LIMIT

OVERVIEW

At time of publication of this report, Republicans are on track to regain control of the House of Representatives for the first time since 2018, by very a slim margin. The outcome of the House and Senate elections will not be known until all votes are counted and several toss up races are called. The content of this report will offer insight into both a Republican controlled or Democratic controlled Senate in the 118th Congress and reflect a new Republican majority in the House.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

Treasury Department implementation of 2022 tax policy will be key, and a focus for Republican oversight.  Expiring policies may drive tax discussions into the lame duck session and perhaps into 2023.  Expirations from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) 2017 are on the horizon in 2025.

Raising the debt limit represents potential driver for tax and fiscal policy discussions in 118th Congress.

As the 118th Congress begins, tax writers will continue to face the aftershocks of several pieces of tax legislation proposed, debated, and enacted during the past Congress. The Department of Treasury is working to juggle implementation and guidance on a competing range of complex tax priorities, from expanded energy tax incentives and the new Corporate AMT (CAMT) enacted within the Fiscal Year (FY) 2022 reconciliation bill to the CHIPS and Science Act’s semiconductor investment tax credit. Close oversight of those and related regulatory developments will be a central focus for the new Republican led House Committee on Ways and Means and possibly the Senate Committee on Finance. Other key oversight priorities may include continued scrutiny on international tax and issues related to the Organisation for Economic Co operation and Development (OECD) tax process, the persistent backlog of refund payments at the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), IRS use of reconciliation funding to expand audit enforcement, a focus on the interaction between recent fiscal policy and inflation, and an ongoing debate over presidential family tax returns, among other issues.

Leading up to the new session, the lame duck carries some limited prospects for tax activity. Several tax policies with expiration dates driven by different pieces of legislation are colliding in a way distinct from the traditional so called “tax extenders” process. These policies range from the R&D amortization rule and full expensing phase down from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) to policies from Coronavirus relief legislation like the meals deduction, to historical tax extenders last advanced in Dec. 2020. Democrats have also prioritized restoring some version of Child Tax Credit (CTC) expansions from the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021, though Republicans argue that those policies raise cost and policy concerns. Should the 117th Congress be unable to reach a bipartisan agreement on some combination of these issues in a lame duck Omnibus, many will remain of interest for the new Congress in the upcoming session.

Distinct from the pileup of expiring policies from 2021 and 2022, a significant portion of the TCJA 2017 is set to expire at the end of 2025, including rate cuts for individual taxpayers, the Section 199A pass through deduction, and many other Member priorities. Tax writers are likely to begin developing legislation that extends or modifies many of these 2025 policies, perhaps even advancing versions of those packages during the 118th Congress.

Beyond that universe of expiring tax policies, anticipation of the need for legislation to prevent default on the debt limit in the summer or fall of 2023 may drive related activity in the tax or fiscal policy space. Several Republicans hope to leverage this debt limit deadline in the first year of the 118th Congress to pursue structural reforms to mandatory spending programs, like the 2011 Budget Control Act debate; most provisions enacted by that legislation expired after FY 2021. In contrast and in recent history, Democrats have approached bipartisan deficit negotiations as an opportunity to pursue revenue increases. This fall, some Democrats have argued in favor of extending the debt limit either in a bipartisan omnibus or with a partisan reconciliation bill (the latter being a technically plausible but politically fraught prospect) in the 2022 lame duck session to forestall any 2023 debt limit debate.

SENATE FINANCE COMMITTEE

Sens. Mike Crapo (R ID) and Ron Wyden (D OR) are expected to remain as their respective party’s leadership on the Committee. Sen. John Thune (R SD) is unlikely to depart as the top Republican on the Subcommittee on Taxation and IRS, although Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse’s (D RI) continued role as top Democrat may depend on what unfolds with his role at the Senate Committee on the Budget.

HOUSE WAYS AND MEANS COMMITTEE

With Rep. Kevin Brady (R TX) retiring at the end of the 117th Congress, there has been a closely contested race to lead the House Committee on Ways and Means. House Republican Steering is scheduled to meet the week of Nov. 28 (after Thanksgiving) to begin deliberating committee chairmanships, including the House Ways and Means Committee. Rep. Vern Buchanan (R FL), the most tenured of the three contenders, was already preparing to run against Rep. Devin Nunes (R CA) before the latter unexpectedly retired, and Rep. Buchanan has actively campaigned all year. Current House Budget Committee Ranking Member and former Republican Conference Secretary Rep. Jason Smith (R MO) formally joined the race in February after foregoing a run to replace retiring Sen. Roy Blunt (R MO) and has built significant momentum over the summer and fall. Second ranking Republican and current Subcommittee on Trade Ranking Member Rep. Adrian Smith (R NE) leaned into the race following Rep. Nunes’ (R CA) retirement; all three candidates have emphasized their work on tax in 2017 and trade in 2015 and beyond. As we emerge from the election, the outcome of the race for Chair remains highly uncertain, but the winner will ultimately drive committee agenda in the 118th Congress. Rep. Richard Neal (D MA) has a clear path to stay on as the top Democrat for the full committee.

The lead Republican on the Subcommittee on Select Revenue Measures may depend on the result of the full Committee race; Rep. Mike Kelly (R PA) may continue to serve in that role, although Rep. David Schweikert (R AZ) may also explore the slot. Across the aisle, Rep. Mike Thompson (D CA) shows no signs of departing his role as lead Subcommittee Democrat.

GENERAL SUMMATION

From regulatory developments and oversight in the short term through policy development looking toward longer term issues like the fiscal cliff in 2025, tax figures to play a continuous and critical role in the legislative and political mechanics in the 118th Congress and beyond.

While the 2021 2022 session and the 2017 2018 session were both dominated by single party reconciliation efforts in this space, the breadth of 2025 will require action even in the event of divided government and may force an evolution in some of the entrenched dynamics on tax policy over the past decade.

TECHNOLOGY & TELECOMMUNICATIONS

OVERVIEW

At time of publication of this report, Republicans are on track to regain control of the House of Representatives for the first time since 2018, by very a slim margin. The outcome of the House and Senate elections will not be known until all votes are counted and several toss up races are called. The content of this report will offer insight into both a Republican controlled or Democratic controlled Senate in the 118th Congress and reflect a new Republican majority in the House.

The new Republican majority in the House, and potentially the Senate, will have a significant impact on the congressional approach to technology and telecommunications policy issues.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

Key issues include content moderation, data privacy, FCC Oversight, and broadband mapping/infrastructure. 



Content censorship by large social media platforms will face significant opposition in a Republican controlled Congress. 

New Republican leadership is expected on Senate Commerce Committees.

The Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation will have new leadership on the Republican side Congressional scrutiny of major technology and social media companies that began this year will only deepen during the 118th Congress, with a special emphasis on content moderation particularly by the Republican controlled House.

Debates over consumer protection and privacy could intensify, bringing with it increased scrutiny of Big Tech companies. The next Congress will examine a host of perennial issues including Federal Communications Commission (FCC) oversight, content moderation, privacy, broadband mapping, the replacement of Chinese manufactured telecom equipment in electric and autonomous vehicle infrastructure development, monopoly power, and rural and tribal broadband access. Given the bipartisan origin of an update to Satellite Communications Regulations, expect legislation to move forward as Satellite constellations are now factoring more heavily in both military and civilian communications. Additionally, the U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) Reconnect Program is expected to continue its buildout of broadband infrastructure throughout rural and tribal areas.

The expected turnover of key personnel in the Biden Administration, along with possible divided control of Congress, will complicate efforts to pass large scale legislation. It is expected that the Biden Administration will try to fill the fifth and final FCC Commissioner post so they can move forward with regulatory action that seeks to improve broadband mapping efforts and move closer to net neutrality.

Regardless of the partisan composition of Congress, the Administration will continue to press its antitrust tech agenda as a means to rein in costs, protect important consumer interests, and curry

favor with Democratic and independent voters, many of whom regard large tech companies with deep suspicion.

SENATE COMMERCE COMMITTEE

Democratic priorities on the Senate Commerce Committee will remain the same: privacy, online safety for minors, gaps in content moderation that allow misinformation to spread, and rural broadband. Children’s privacy will continue to stir significant interest and any significant revelations regarding social media's impacts on children could generate a series of hearings as well as more stringent legislation.

If the Senate is not able to act this year to reauthorize legislation that extends the FCC's authority to auction spectrum, that will become a top priority for 2023. Sen. Maria Cantwell (D WA) is expected to keep the top Democratic seat on the Full Committee. With Sen. Roger Wicker (R MS) transitioning to leadership on the Senate Committee on Armed Services (SASC), Sen. Ted Cruz (R TX) is expected to claim the top Republican seat. One of Sen. Cantwell’s personal broadband priorities will likely be passing her bill, the Grant to Rapidly Invest and Deploy Broadband (GRID) Act, which has bipartisan support from co sponsor Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R WV) and would provide federal cost sharing to incentivize investment in middle mile broadband projects.

Despite significant efforts and attention, the House and Senate both failed to move legislation in the current Congress to rewrite competition rules for big technology companies. However, these issues will remain a top priority for the Democrats on the Senate Committee on the Judiciary Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D MN) will maintain the top Democratic seat on the Judiciary Committee Subcommittee on Competition Policy, Antitrust, and Consumer Rights. From that perch, she will continue to push the American Innovation and Competition Online Act, a bipartisan bill she sponsored with Sen. Chuck Grassley (R IA), that would ban Big Tech companies from favoring their own services in an anticompetitive way. However, despite vocal bipartisan support, Sen. Klobuchar will continue to struggle to secure the 60 votes necessary to overcome a filibuster. Even sympathetic members continue to express genuine concerns behind the scenes, with many Republicans worried about giving regulators too much authority while Democrats fear undermining platforms' abilities to combat disinformation.

As their frustration with Big Tech grows, Judiciary Committee members will likely continue to attack Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act, a provision which provides immunity to social media platforms for content posted on their sites. In the current Congress, lawmakers formally introduced more than 20 bills to amend or repeal Section 230 that trend will likely continue as lawmakers seek to carve out specific protections platforms currently enjoy. The Supreme Court is set to hear arguments in a case regarding Section 230, as well as challenges to laws in Texas and Florida aiming to limit platforms' powers to moderate content, which will focus significant additional attention on these issues.

Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D CT) will remain in the top Democratic seat on the Subcommittee on Consumer Protection, Product Safety, and Data Security. On the Subcommittee on Communications,

Media, and Broadband, Sen. Ben Ray Lujan (D NM) is expected to remain in the top Democratic seat, and Sen. John Thune (R SD) will remain in the top Republican seat.

A seismic shift is anticipated on the Senate Commerce Committee with Sen. Roger Wicker (R MS) expected to hold the top Republican seat on the Senate Armed Services Committee (SASC), likely resulting in Sen. Ted Cruz (R TX) taking over the position as top Republican of the Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation. While the Committee has traditionally been known for its strong bipartisan work, time will tell if that tradition continues. This will put Sen. Cruz in a unique position to influence content moderation focused legislation given his previous position on the Judiciary Committee. As the top Republican of the Senate Judiciary Subcommittee on the Constitution, Sen. Cruz has been very vocal about issues concerning what he perceived as Big Tech's attacks on the freedom of speech. Sen. John Thune (R SD) will assume the top Republican seat of the Subcommittee on Communications, Media, and Broadband, and Sen. Ben Ray Lujan (D NM) is expected to hold the top Democratic seat.

It should also be noted that Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R TN) has recently brought attention to both Apple and Google's duopoly of the App median world. Sen. Blackburn sponsored the Open App Markets Act in opposition to Big Tech's solitary ownership of the business to consumer toll road. Sen. Blackburn sits on both the Senate Commerce Committee as well as the Senate Judiciary Competition Policy, Antitrust, and Consumer Rights Subcommittee and is uniquely positioned to make significant waves in the anti trust and anti Big Tech spaces.

Sen. Cruz has stated Silicon Valley has long gone unchecked, and the Senator has taken issue with tech companies blocking certain content relating to voting and elections.

HOUSE E&C COMMITTEE

Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R WA) will become the first woman to lead the powerful House Committee on Energy and Commerce (E&C). Her Chairmanship is expected to continue a Republican led effort to remove Section 230 protections for Big Tech companies, setting in its place narrower liability protections and policies they believe will hold Big Tech accountable for content. It is expected that Chair McMorris Rodgers will move legislation to limit the government's ability to influence censorship of individuals' free speech on these platforms while putting in place a mechanism of notification and recourse for any alleged content violations.

While some issues will continue to have bipartisan interest and support such as privacy, satellite licensing rules, 5G deployment, and rural broadband, expect to see an increase in oversight hearings of the Biden Administration. E&C Republicans will also look to extend these efforts toward exploring various legislative ways to give parents tools to enhance safety and keep their children protected online. Oversight of broadband mapping and funding will continue to find a seat at the table and the agenda could also look to find time for companion legislation to Sen. Blackburn's efforts to ensure app stores are not unfairly treating developers.

Rep. Frank Pallone (D NJ) is expected to retain the top Democratic seat on E&C assuming the role of Ranking Member. Reps. Mike Doyle (D PA), current Chair of the Communications and Technology Subcommittee, G. K. Butterfield (D NC), Jerry McNerney (D CA), and Kathleen Rice (D NY) are all retiring members of the Committee, creating an opening for rank and file Democrats on the Committee to emerge in the telecom leadership space.

Net neutrality and broadband access will be a prominent issue for House Democrats, especially if the Biden Administration manages to appoint a fifth FCC Commissioner. Look for oversight hearings on the Department of Commerce, Department of Energy, Department of Health and Human Services, the Federal Communications Commission, and the Federal Trade Commission.

GENERAL SUMMATION

House Republicans are expected to focus in on section 230 reform, data privacy, and security. Data Privacy and Content Moderation are going to serve as significant aspects of the 2024 elections. The nation is moving toward national 5G deployment, improved broadband, and an upgraded electric vehicle network, but the question remains: "what will be the future of gas in the U.S economy?"

Democratic Party Priorities

• Spectrum reauthorization

• Privacy/children’s privacy and safety

• Rural broadband

Republican Party Priorities

• Privacy

• Cybersecurity

• Oversight of Biden led initiatives including the Broadband Equity, Access, and Deployment (BEAD) program and the Affordability Connectivity Program (ACP).

• Section 230/free speech/censorship Like House Republicans, there is interest from Senate Republicans to go after “big tech” for what they perceive as censorship, specifically regarding the removal of former President Trump from social media in 2021. They may aim to degrade Section 230 which protects these companies from liability issues associated with content moderation.

TRADE

OVERVIEW

At time of publication of this report, Republicans are on track to regain control of the House of Representatives for the first time since 2018, by very slim margins. The outcome of the House elections will not be known until all votes are counted and several toss up races are called. The content of this report will offer insight into both a Republican controlled or Democratic controlled Senate in the 118th Congress and reflects a new Republican majority in the House.

KEY TAKE AWAYS







Possible revitalization of

policy in lame duck session and into next year.

China and supply chain issues will be front and center.

President Biden will face new Republican leadership of the House Ways and Means and House Appropriations Committees regarding trade matters.



Formal trade agreements are unlikely in the absence of "fast track" authority.

With Republicans taking control of the House and the fate of the Senate still to be determined, the Biden Administration’ s priorities will remain the same. Priorities such as progressing the Indo Pacific Economic Framework and Americas Partnership for Prosperity, bipartisan aid for Ukraine paired with pressure on Russia, and domestic production initiatives will still be top of the ticket, despite operating under a Republican controlled House. Republican priorities going into the new Congress will focus on isolating and countering Chinese malign influence, investigations and protection of supply chains, and oversight of the Biden Administration’ s actions on trade. Such oversight could potentially include action related to Section 232 and 301 tariffs and the Global Arrangement on Sustainable Steel and Aluminum. Democratic priorities will include the Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) program, if it does not pass in the lame duck, as well as a continued focus on China, labor enforcement in the U.S. Mexico Canada Agreement (USMCA), and other agreements.

Both parties may also consider collaboration in support of domestic production initiatives to counteract ongoing supply chain problems, and there is bipartisan support for various priorities within extensions of Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) and Miscellaneous Tariff Bill (MTB) policies. Cross partisan agreement related to GSP and MTB policies, which were considered but ultimately fell out of the CHIPS/USICA/Endless Frontiers discussion, may help drive quiet discussions on trade legislation over the course of the 118th Congress.

Members of Congress will continue exploring the possibility of formalized trade agreements between the U.S. and Taiwan, the U.S. and Kenya, and potentially the U.S. and the U.K. if the U.K. is able to show stability in governance. Note that the current Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) is expired, so President Biden will not have “fast track” authority unless he asks Congress to renew TPA, which traditionally has been divisive among Democrats, but now has problems in both parties. However, trade agreements

trade

are still possible in the absence of TPA with 60 votes in the Senate, so trade deals are not out of the realm of possibility.

SENATE FINA NCE COMMITTEE

Sens. Mike Crapo (R ID) and Ron Wyden (D OR) are expected to remain as their parties’ leadership on the Committee. On the Subcommittee on International Trade, Customs, and Global Competitiveness, Sens. Tom Carper (D DE) and John Cornyn (R TX) will likely stay on as the top Democrat and Republican, respectively.

HOUSE WAYS AND MEANS COMMITTEE

A closely contested race to lead the House Committee on Ways and Means has emerged following Rep. Kevin Brady’s (R TX) retirement at the end of the 117th Congress. The House Republican Steering Committee is scheduled to meet the week of Nov. 28 to begin deliberating committee chairmanships, including the Ways and Means Committee. Rep. Vern Buchanan (R FL), the most tenured of the three contenders, was already preparing to run against Rep. Devin Nunes (R CA) before the latter unexpectedly retired, and Rep. Buchanan has actively maintained that campaign all year. Current House Committee on the Budget Ranking Member Rep. Jason Smith (R MO) formally joined the race for leadership in February after foregoing a campaign to replace retiring Sen. Roy Blunt (R MO) and has built significant momentum over the Summer and Fall. Next in line for the Republicans is current Subcommittee on Trade Ranking Member Adrian Smith (R NE), who leaned into the race following Rep. Nunes’ retirement; all three candidates have emphasized their work on tax in 2017 and trade in 2015 and beyond. As we emerge from the election, the outcome here remains highly uncertain but will ultimately drive Committee work in the 118th Congress. Rep. Richard Neal (D MA) has a clear path to stay on as the top Democrat for the full Committee.

Rep. Earl Blumenauer (D OR) is expected to stay on as the top Democrat for the Subcommittee on Trade. The retirement of Rep. Ron Kind (D WI), the second ranked Democrat on the Trade Subcommittee, will lead to other moderate members picking up the mantle as lead voices among pro trade Democrats. For example, we could see Rep. Dan Kildee (D MI) fill the role as a leader on agriculture that Rep. Kind once filled. For Republicans, leadership of the Trade Subcommittee will depend in large part on the result in the full Committee race.

SENATE APPROPRIATIONS COMMITTEE

With the retirements of both Sens. Patrick Leahy (D VT) and Richard Shelby (R AL), expect full Committee dynamics to shift. Sen. Patty Murray (D WA) is slated to take on a more senior role on the full Senate Appropriations Committee, due to this, she will need to give up her spot on the Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions. Sen. Susan Collins (R ME) is next in seniority and a favored option to succeed Sen. Shelby as the top Republican on the full Committee.

On the Senate Commerce, Justice, Science, and Related Agencies Subcommittee (CJS), Sen. Jerry Moran (R KS) is expected to stay in the top Republican role. On the Democratic side, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D NH) could stay in the top spot, unless she chooses to move to the Subcommittee on Labor, Health and Human Services, Education, and Related Agencies top role, which would then open up CJS for another Democrat.

HOUSE APPROPRIATIONS COMMITTEE

Current Chair Matt Cartwright (D PA) is slated to stay on as the top Democrat on the House CJS Subcommittee in the 118th Congress. Ranking Member Robert Aderholt (R AL) is planning to take the reins as Chair of the House CJS Subcommittee, but that is dependent on waivers being provided.

GENERAL SUMMATION

As we move into the lame duck session, it is possible to see revitalized discussions surrounding the trade package from earlier in the 117th Congress, which could include the Miscellaneous Tariff Bill and the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP). While top Republicans remain hopeful that trade talks can proceed, Democrats have noted that they will not support a trade package that does not include the Trade Adjustment Assistance program, which provides job training assistance to workers displaced from their jobs because of trade.

TRANSPORTATION

OVERVIEW

At time of publication of this report, Republicans are on track to regain control of the House of Representatives for the first time since 2018, by very a slim margin. The outcome of the House and Senate elections will not be known until all votes are counted and several toss up races are called. The content of this paper will offer insight into both a Republican controlled or Democratic controlled Senate in the 118th Congress and reflect a new Republican majority in the House.

KEY TAKEAWAYS



The 2023 FAA Reauthorization will be a key focus for the 118th Congress.

 Democratic priorities will include an electric vehicle charging station network and related tax incentives.

 Republicans will target the IIJA and IRA for increased oversight.



There is bipartisan support for addressing rail labor issues and increased transport costs

The 117th Congress passed significant infrastructure legislation, including the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA). Infrastructure remains an issue with bipartisan support, and the implementation of these bills will remain a priority in the coming Congress. Nevertheless, expect oversight of both laws to be targeted by Republicans in the next year. With Republicans earning a majority in the House in each chamber, it is anticipated that Administration figures like Department of Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Department of Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm, and Department of Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo will face intense questioning from lawmakers about a range of implementation issues related to the IIJA and IRA, including spending oversight, and disagreements over climate and equity priorities. The Biden Administration’s commitment to building out an electric vehicle charging network through grants and tax incentives will also remain a major priority for the 118th Congress.

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Reauthorization Act of 2018 expires next year, putting pressure on the incoming Congress to address airports, airlines, and other relevant transportation industries. Expect a significant focus on developing the 2023 reauthorization soon after a new Congress takes their oaths in January. A new Republican House majority will look to swiftly draft, write, markup, and pass a bill before midsummer.

Freight railroad labor negotiations with the freight railroad industry will continue into the next year, as will backlog issues reported by the Surface Transportation Board (STB).

SENATE COMMERCE COMMITTEE

Maria Cantwell (D WA), of the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, is expected to maintain her position as the top Democrat on the Committee. In the next Congress, Sen. Cantwell will likely focus on freight mobility, workforce, and the modernization of a commercial aviation system. Leadership is expected to remain the same on both the Senate Committee on

Environment and Public Works (EPW) and its Subcommittee on Transportation and Infrastructure for the 118th Congress. However, both current Committee Chair Tom Carper (D DE) and current Subcommittee Chair Ben Cardin (D MD) are up for reelection in 2024 and have yet to announce their plans as we look to consider the 119th Congress.

Current Ranking Member of the Senate Commerce Committee Roger Wicker (R MS) plans to take the top Republican seat of the Senate Committee on Armed Services. Sen. Ted Cruz (R TX) is expected to become the top Republican on the Senate Commerce Committee

Sen. Cruz leaves a top Republican position open on the Senate Commerce Subcommittee on Aviation Safety, Operations, and Innovation. It is likely Sen. Jerry Moran (R KS) will step in to fill his role. The Senate EPW Committee will show a new Republican makeup with Sens. Jim Inhofe (R OK) and Richard Shelby (R AL) retiring. Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R WV) is expected to ascend to the position of top Republican on the Committee She has been vocal about improper IIJA implementation spending. She has also voiced concerns about the Federal Highway Administration imposing strict greenhouse gas emissions performance measures on state transportation departments. It is expected these will be priority issues for her.

HOUSE T&I COMMITTEE

Rep. Rick Larsen (D WA) and Del. Eleanor Holmes Norton (D DC) are vying for Rep. Peter DeFazio’s (D OR) position on the House Committee on Transportation & Infrastructure (T&I). Neither Rep. Larsen nor Del. Norton face serious opposition on Election Day, and both are expected to align with Democratic priorities if their party maintains a majority in the House. If Rep. Larsen or Del. Norton take the top Democratic position on the Committee, there will be an open seat atop either the House T&I Subcommittee on Aviation or the Subcommittee on Highways and Transit, respectively.

On the Republican side, Ranking Member Sam Graves (R MO) will retain the top Republican seat on the Committee, where he will most likely focus on oversight and national supply chain issues. Rep. Garret Graves (R LA) will stay on the Aviation Subcommittee. Currently, no members have publicly claimed any other subcommittee leadership slots, but there are Republican openings on the Subcommittee on Coast Guard and Maritime and the Subcommittee on Highways and Transit.

SENATE APPROPRIATIONS COMMITTEE

Sen. Brian Schatz (D HI) is expected to retain the top Democratic seat on the Senate Committee on Appropriations Subcommittee on Transportation, Housing and Urban Development, and Related Agencies (THUD). Sen. Schatz has dedicated significant time and effort to advocating for billions of dollars in infrastructure projects and upgrades, so expect a continued push for more grants and upgrades to the highway, electric, and autonomous vehicle networks.

With Vice Chair Richard Shelby’s (R AL) retirement, Sen. Susan Collins (R ME) will ascend to the top Republican seat on the Senate Appropriations Committee. Sen. Collins was a key contributor to the IIJA and co wrote the section that resulted in the largest ever investment in broadband internet expansion

in the nation’s history. Look for Sen. Collins to push for legislation that pulls together transportation and broadband dedicated initiatives. Sen. John Boozman (R AR) has stated his interest in becoming the top Republican of the THUD Subcommittee. However, both Sens. John Hoeven (R ND) and Jerry Moran (R KS) would have priority to gain the position before Sen. Boozman. A significant part of this will also depend on whether the conference allows for major committee waivers again, as Sen. Boozman wants to retain the top Republican seat on the Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry. If Sen. Boozman were to get the lead Republican spot on THUD it would leave an opening for the top position of the Subcommittee on Military Construction, Veterans Affairs, and Related Agencies (MilCon VA). The Senate Republican THUD Subcommittee priorities will likely include oversight of the implementation of the IIJA grants for airport projects, funding of infrastructure projects in rural areas, and lifting the Passenger Facility Charge (PFC) cap.

HOUSE APPROPRIATIONS COMMITTEE

Succession following the retirement of THUD Subcommittee Chair David Price (D NC), should be noncontroversial and seniority based. Assuming he relinquishes his role as the top Democratic appropriator on the Subcommittee on Financial Services and General Government, Rep. Mike Quigley (D IL) is widely considered the front runner to take over the THUD Subcommittee. Rep. Quigley’s transportation priorities include increased collaboration between the telecommunication industry and aviation stakeholders surrounding 5G rollout.

With a new Republican majority in the House, Rep. Mario Díaz-Balart (R-FL), is the favorite to lead the THUD Subcommittee, with the added caveat that he will need a waiver to maintain Republican leadership. If Rep. Díaz Balart is denied the waiver, expect another senior Republican member to claim the spot: Reps. Hal Rogers (R KY), Tom Cole (R OK), or Mike Simpson (R ID) are all options. Rep. Díaz Balart’s transportation priorities include implementation of the One Federal Decision policy to expedite major infrastructure projects, IIJA implementation oversight, the IIJA environmental review process, and increasing infrastructure jobs and savings for taxpayers.

GENERAL SUMMATION

With Republicans earning a majority in in the House, watch for legislative attempts to claw back some of the IIJA and IRA money going to programs Republicans oppose, such as electric vehicle charging stations. With the many reauthorizations, network upgrades, and oversight issues, impacts from these elections are expected to spill into the legislative process for the foreseeable future.

COLORADO

OVERVIEW

Due in large part to Colorado’s 2013 decision to mail every registered voter a ballot, and expanded online and automatic voter registration, the state boasts some of the highest voter participation in the country. As expected, incumbent Democratic Gov. Jared Polis earned a second term by defeating his Republican challenger Heidi Ganahl, a businesswoman and University of Colorado Regent.

KEY TAKEAWAYS



With Gov. Polis’s reelection, Democrats maintain leadership statewide.

 Attention now turns to the race for Denver Mayor (Nov. 2023), in which more than 22 candidates have already either entered the race or announced intent to run.

All eyes were on the ultra competitive race for Congressional District 8, which was created during the redistricting process in 2021. The new seat represents the highest proportion of Hispanic and Latino voters in Colorado and is seen as a political balance of liberal Denver suburbs and historically conservative agricultural communities. Ultimately, Democratic candidate Yadira Caraveo was selected to represent the communities northeast of Denver in Congress.

In total, Coloradans voted on 11 ballot measures this year, most of which have not been called at the time of writing. Notably, Colorado became the second state behind Oregon to decriminalize psychedelic mushrooms for individuals over the age of 21. Three ballot measures related to alcohol sales in the state are projected to fail, and an initiative to undermine the impact of the state’s Taxpayer Bill of Rights law (TABOR) by requiring additional information be disclosed to voters when voting on any proposed tax increases passed by a wide margin.

GOVERNOR

Gov. Polis, who boasted a healthy approval rating through his first term, easily won reelection with over 57.5% of the vote. The Governor’s navigation of the COVID 19 pandemic, and his work to pass a Universal Pre K program, were among the reasons voters cited for their support.

Gov. Polis and Lt. Gov. Dianne Primavera are expected to continue to focus on the economy, having voiced repeatedly on the campaign trail their intent to save Coloradans money and generate success. The Polis Administration will continue to place importance on the environment and combating climate change as Colorado continues to struggle with poor air quality and dry conditions, leading to increased fire risks across the state. Additionally, public safety and education will remain top priorities. Gov. Polis has stated his intention to make Colorado one of the top ten safest states in the country over the next five years; currently, Colorado sits at 39th. With passage of the Universal Pre K program, the Governor will also look to ensure a smooth roll out of the program and ensure its long term sustainability. While

the margins were close in other statewide races, Democrats were able to maintain control of the State Attorney General (Phil Weiser), Secretary of State (Jena Griswold), and Treasurer (Dave Young)

COLORADO SENATE

State Sen. Kevin Priola switched party affiliations in the Fall, leaving the Republican Party and all but solidifying Democrats’ efforts to maintain control of the Senate. In keeping with predictions, the State Senate remained in Democratic control on Election Day, though by a much wider margin than originally anticipated. Republicans did not pick up a single seat toward regaining control, and the Senate is now 23 12 in favor of Democrats. The Majority, led by President Stephen Fenberg, will aim to pick up where they left off in May 2022 by focusing on the environment, social justice, and economic support for the middle class. Colorado’s ozone levels have fallen out of attainment with U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) standards, so legislation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and implement renewable energy practices will be a priority.

COLORADO HOUSE

The Colorado State House entered Election Day mourning the sudden passing of Minority Leader Hugh McKean on Oct. 30, 2022. Rep. McKean was chosen to lead his caucus in 2020 and was admired by colleagues on both sides of the aisle for his friendly demeanor and dedication to public service.

The State House, like the Senate, saw Democrats increase their Majority. Democrats will now be working with a 46 19 majority in the House. A new Speaker of the House will be elected on Nov. 10, as previous Speaker Alec Garnett was term limited. Members of the Majority, like their colleagues in the Senate, will aim to introduce legislation to curb greenhouse gas emissions, mitigate the negative economic impacts of COVID 19, and promote equity and opportunity for disadvantaged and underserved communities. Behavioral health remains a bipartisan issue in the state, and the House is expected to build on last year’s efforts when they convene this Spring.

SUMMARY

With a renewed trifecta and unexpectedly larger majority, Democrats in Colorado will be laser focused on continuing their legislative agenda. Term limits and resignations have led to several open seats in both chambers, which means the Legislature will welcome multiple new members when they convene in the 2023. Leadership elections for the State House and Senate will take place on Nov. 10, and the First Regular Session of the Seventy fourth General Assembly will begin Jan. 9, 2023.

GEORGIA

OVERVIEW

In a state with a Republican-dominated Legislature and an incumbent Republican governor, President Biden managed to narrowly win Georgia in 2020, marking the first time the state was won by a Democrat in almost three decades. Though Democrats surely hoped to capitalize on this momentum, Republicans reigned victorious in a majority of races down the ballot.

KEY TAKEAWAYS



Georgia’s gubernatorial election was a replay of the 2018 race



Republicans remain in control of the House and Senate.



Georgians took to the polls in record numbers throughout the early voting period, casting their votes for a multitude of statewide and local races. In the Senate race, the outcome of which could affect party control of the Senate, incumbent Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican challenger Herschel Walker are headed to a runoff on Dec. 6, 2022. In the gubernatorial race, incumbent Republican Brian Kemp fended off Democratic Nominee Stacey Abrams, in a rematch of their high profile 2018 contest. In other statewide contests on the ballot, Republicans swept most races.

GOVERNOR

The U.S. Senate race with national political implications is headed to a runoff on Dec. 6, 2022.

Gov. Kemp beat Stacey Abrams by almost eight percentage points. Gov. Kemp’s campaign touted Georgia’s record low unemployment rate and recent distinction as the number one state for business for the ninth consecutive year. For his final term, Gov. Kemp will focus on addressing inflation and working with the Legislature to continue supporting Georgia’s economic development. With Abrams’ second loss to Kemp, question marks now linger around her political future. Nevertheless, Abrams, whose name was in discussion for Biden’s vice president pick in 2020, will undoubtedly remain a figure in national Democratic politics.

GEORGIA SENATE

State Sen. Burt Jones (R) outlasted Charlie Bailey (D) in the Lieutenant Governor race, to take presiding power of the Senate. The Senate will now nominate a new President Pro Tempore to replace state Sen. Butch Miller (R), who fell to Sen. Jones in the Lieutenant Governor primary race. Recent redistricting in Georgia left only a couple of competitive Senate seats, and Republicans easily managed to maintain their majority, now holding 33 of 56 seats.

GEORGIA HOUSE

Like the Senate, the Georgia House will have all new leadership with last Friday’s announcement that Speaker David Ralston will not seek reelection as Speaker in 2023 due to health concerns. As in the Senate, redistricting narrowed competitive seats down to a select handful. Consequently, the House remains under Republican control, with Republicans now holding 101 of 180 seats.

SUMMARY

Republicans swept a majority of statewide offices and asserted their continued control of the General Assembly. When the Legislature convenes on Jan. 9, 2023, they will focus their agenda on addressing inflation, developing affordable housing, and supporting economic development projects throughout the state.

ILLINOIS

OVERVIEW

KEY TAKEAWAYS

Governor Pritzker won reelection. 

Democrats maintained their supermajority in both chambers. 

The ballot measure known as the Workers' Rights Amendment stands too close to call as of Nov. 10. 

Voter attention now turns to the Chicago Mayoral and City Council election on Feb. 28, 2023.

The Democratic majority retained its leadership this election across the state's Executive and Legislative Branches. Early polling indicated a potential pathway for Republicans to pick up seats in both chambers due to national trends and inflationary concerns. However, later developments in the fight for women's reproductive rights, recent gun violence in the Chicago suburbs, and the loss of funding from top Republican donor Ken Griffin led Democratic members to retain more districts than initially expected. Suburban and downstate districts received the most attention this cycle, with record early voting in both locations. In the United States Senate, incumbent Democratic Sen. Tammy Duckworth defeated Republican Kathy Salvi. All 17 Congressional seats were also heavily contested due to the loss of one congressional seat following the decennial census. Notable races include incumbent Democratic Rep. Sean Casten’s defeat of Republican Keith Pekau in the 6th Congressional District and Democrat Eric Sorensen’s defeat of Republican Esther Joy King in the open 17th Congressional District.

GOVERNOR

Incumbent Democrat J.B. Pritzker defeated Republican challenger Darren Bailey 54% to 43% to retain his seat for a second term as Governor. He will be sworn in on Jan. 9, 2023. In his second term, Governor Pritzker is expected to expand upon his work in state electrification and push for comprehensive immigration reform.

In the race for Illinois Secretary of State, Democrat Alexi Giannoulias, former Illinois Treasurer, defeated Republican challenger Dan Brady to succeed Jesse White's 23 year tenure. The ballot measure known as the Workers' Rights Amendment, a measure which protects workers' rights and workplace safety, remains too close to call. As of November 10, 93% of the votes have been counted, and the measure received 58% of the 60% of votes needed to pass. In the Illinois Supreme Court 2nd District, Democratic Lake County Judge Elizabeth Rochford defeated Republican Lake County Sheriff Mark Curran. In the Illinois Supreme Court 3rd District Race, widely endorsed Democratic Appellate Justice Mary K O'Brien was victorious against incumbent Republican Supreme Court Judge Michael Burke. These wins allowed Democrats to maintain control of the state’s Supreme Court.

ILLINOIS SENATE

In accordance with this year's redistricting, all 59 senators were on the ballot this election. Senate Democrats lost two seats but are expected to hold a 39 to 20 majority once all remaining votes are counted. Notable races include Democratic appointee Doris Turner, who narrowly beat Republican Sandy Hamilton in the 48th district to maintain her seat representing Springfield; Republican Erica Conway Harris, who defeated appointed Democratic Sen Kris Tharp in the 56th district representing Metro East St. Louis; and Democratic incumbent Michael Hastings’ race against Republican challenger Patrick Sheehan in the 19th district, which remains too close to call as each candidate received 50.0% of the vote with 95% of the votes counted. Senators will be sworn into office on Jan. 11, 2023.

ILLINOIS HOUSE

As with the Senate, all 118 House representatives were on the ballot. House Democrats picked up 4 seats and are expected to hold a 77 to 41 majority once all remaining votes are counted. Most major upsets for the Democratic Party occurred during the Primary Election when multiple moderate Democratic leaders were defeated by progressive challengers. However, notable races of the General Election include Democratic incumbent LaToya Greenwood’s unexpected loss to Republican challenger Kevin Schmidt in the 114th district representing Metro East St. Louis; Democrat Nabeela Syed’s defeat of Republican incumbent Chris Bos in the suburban 51st district; Democrat Matt Hanson’s victory over Republican incumbent Keith Wheeler in the 83rd district; and Democrat Sharon Chung’s victory over Republican Scott Preston in the open 91st district. Representatives will be sworn into office on Jan. 11, 2023.

SUMMARY

• Democrats will maintain their control of the Governor's office and both chambers of the General Assembly in the upcoming session

• With progressive members replacing moderate leaders in both the House and Senate, committee and party leadership changes are expected across both chambers. House Minority Leader Jim Durkin has already announced that he will not be running for another term as the caucus leader.

IOWA

OVERVIEW

Republicans in Iowa had a successful night, picking up more seats in the state House and Senate, as well as flipping many statewide races from blue to red. The Hawkeye state had several key incumbent lawmakers up for reelection, including Governor Kim Reynolds (R) and U.S. Sen Chuck Grassley (R). Gov. Reynolds won handily, defeating her opponent by a margin of 19%. Sen. Grassley defeated democratic challenger Michael Franken (D) by 13% and will serve his eighth term in the U.S. Senate. In a highly contested race that received national attention, Democratic incumbent Cindy Axne was defeated by former Iowa State Sen. Zach Nunn. All four of Iowa's U.S. Congressional delegates and the two U.S. Senators are now Republicans. Republicans also hold a significant advantage in both chambers of the Iowa Legislature this January.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

Iowa Republicans maintained control of the State Legislature. 

All of Iowa’s four congressional seats are now help by republicans. 

Kim Reynolds cruised to victory in her second term as a governor winning by 19% of the vote. 

The longest serving Attorney General and State Treasurer in the country lost both of their reelections to their Republican challenger.

Several other statewide races were highly competitive, with both parties spending big. One highly watched race featured Iowa's Attorney General Tom Miller (D). Miller was the longest serving AG in the country and faced a competitive race against Brenna Bird (R). A significant amount of national money was poured into this race. Although the race is not yet called, it is highly likely that Bird maintains her lead and defeats Miller.

GOVERNOR

Current Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) easily defeated her Democratic opponent Deidre DeJear (D), by a margin of 58.1% to 39.6%. Last year, Gov. Reynolds made history by passing the most significant tax reform bill in the state's history, establishing a 3.9% flat income tax rate, eliminating state tax on retirement income, and making reforms to the corporate tax rate. School choice will be the Governor's number one priority moving into next year's legislative session. Gov. Reynolds will be sworn in for her second term on Jan. 13, 2023, and will deliver her State of the State address on Jan. 10, 2023.

IOWA SENATE

Republicans raised over $4 million this cycle, compared to Democrats who raised $2.5 million. There were 27 Iowa Senate races this election cycle; two more than normal due to redistricting. Prior to the election, Senate Republicans held a 32 18 majority. Although a few races may go to a recount, after election night, it is expected Republicans will increase their seats with a 34 16 majority. This year’s

most expensive legislative race in Iowa featured two Iowa Senate incumbents running against one another due to district boundary changes in last year’s redistricting process. Senate President Jake Chapman (R) was defeated by Sen. Sara Trone Garriott (D) 51.44% to 48.46%. Senate Majority Leader Jack Whitver (R) won his reelection and will likely continue to lead the caucus next session. The Senate will likely support Gov. Reynolds' school choice proposal and work together to advance each other's priorities which also includes additional tax reform measures.

IOWA HOUSE

All 100 House seats in Iowa were up for reelection this cycle. Prior to the election, Republicans had a 60 40 majority in the House. As predicted, House Republicans picked up a few seats making their majority 64 36, however we are still waiting for official results and waiting for the recounts in Warren and Des Moines County. House leadership is expected to remain the same, with Speaker Pat Grassley (R) and House Majority Leader Matt Windschitl (R) being reelected. During the primaries, Gov. Reynolds backed nine House candidates who supported her school choice proposal. Eight out of the nine candidates won, with some defeating Republican incumbent House members who did not support her education proposal. A third of the House will be "new" for the 2023 legislative session.

SUMMARY

Iowa continues to hold a Republican trifecta, meaning the Governor and both chambers are under Republican control. There will be 64 new members of the Iowa Legislature next session, which begins on Jan. 9, 2023., Although Iowa is headed for a recount in a couple of counties, Iowa voters seemed to vote based on concerns regarding inflation and the economy. The Governor, who spent significant time campaigning for republican candidates in the months leading up to the election, continues to be very outspoken about her main priority, school choice. Other key priorities for the Governor that align with the Republican majorities in the House and Senate appear to be cutting taxes for Iowans, economic growth initiatives, tort reform, addressing Iowa's workforce crisis, and healthcare reform.

KENTUCKY

OVERVIEW

Republicans surpassed Democrats in voter registration for the first time in Kentucky history this year, and the election results further strengthened Republican supermajorities in the State Legislature. Sen. Rand Paul (R) was reelected, and State Senate Minority Leader Morgan McGarvey (D) will replace Rep. John Yarmuth (D) as the lone Democratic member of Kentucky's Congressional Delegation.

Kentucky voters considered two constitutional amendments on Election Day. Amendment 1 would permit the Kentucky General Assembly to call itself into special session for up to 12 days each year and Amendment 2 would declare that no constitutional right to abortion exists in the Kentucky Constitution. Both amendments failed to pass

GOVERNOR

KEY TAKEAWAYS



Kentucky Republicans increased supermajorities in the State House and State Senate.

 Constitutional amendment declaring no constitutional right to abortion exists in Kentucky failed.



Focus turns to 2023 elections for Governor and statewide constitutional officers.

Gov. Andy Beshear (D) is seeking a second term in 2023 after defeating former Gov. Matt Bevin (R) by 5,086 votes in 2019. Gov. Beshear has proven to be a prolific fundraiser, reporting more than $4.1 million cash on hand, as of Oct 2022. Gov. Beshear continues to center his message on Kentucky's economic development momentum following a record year for investment in Kentucky in 2021 with continued progress in 2022.

The field of Republican candidates vying to challenge Gov. Beshear continues to grow ahead of the January filing deadline. Agriculture Commissioner Ryan Quarles, Attorney General Daniel Cameron, and former U.N. Ambassador Kelly Craft have formally entered the race and are widely considered to be frontrunners in a field that also includes State Auditor Mike Harmon and State Rep. Savannah Maddox, among others. Attorney General Cameron has been endorsed by former President Trump. Republican candidates are expected to tie Gov. Beshear to national issues such as inflation, crime, and the border crisis. There is also much discussion on how Gov. Beshear handled restrictions and school closures during the COVID 19 pandemic.

KENTUCKY SENATE

19 of 38 seats in the State Senate were on the ballot this year. Republicans added to their supermajority with a net gain of one seat, and Republicans now hold 31 of 38 seats. Leadership elections will occur in the coming weeks, with all current members of majority leadership set to return to the State Senate. Two committee chairmanships and one budget review subcommittee

chairmanship stand vacant for the upcoming session due to retirements, and the new chairs will be named after leadership elections.

KENTUCKY HOUSE

Republicans have consistently increased their numbers in the State House since gaining the majority in 2016. Republicans entered the 2022 election with a 75 to 25 supermajority. Following the election, the Republican supermajority has grown to an 80 to 20 margin, with only three Democratic members remaining, whose districts do not include Lexington or Louisville. Leadership elections will occur in November. House Majority Whip Chad McCoy (R) did not seek reelection, and five committee chairmanships and three budget review subcommittee chairmanships stand vacant for the upcoming session due to retirements and primary election defeats. New chairs will be named after leadership elections.

SUMMARY

The Legislature convenes for its 30 day 2023 session on Jan. 3 with veto proof majorities in both chambers. Statewide elections for Governor and five constitutional offices will occur in 2023. Following recent sessions where a significant number of bills passed on issues including tax reform, education, executive authority, and infrastructure investments, among others, and given the fact it is not a budget year, indications are that the Legislature intends to slow the pace of new issues addressed in 2023. Kentucky's surplus of more than $1 billion in the last fiscal year led to speculation that the budget would be opened in 2023 despite it being a short session, but Senate Majority Floor Leader Damon Thayer recently indicated funding decisions will not be addressed again until 2024.

LOUISIANA

OVERVIEW

For Louisiana’s federal delegation, the elections went as expected with federal incumbents seeing no viable challengers. Sen. John Kennedy (R), who showcased over $30 million in his war chest, was successful in his bid despite drawing a dozen opponents. Other measures on Louisiana’s November ballot included eight constitutional amendments, 25 municipal races, two Public Service Commissioner races, and two highly competitive State Senate seats up for grabs. The focus now pivots to state elections in 2023 when Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) serves his final term and other high profile races like Attorney General, Secretary of State, and Insurance Commissioner are up for reelection.

GOVERNOR

KEY TAKEAWAYS

Most Louisiana voters are focused on the 2023 election cycle.  Gov. Edwards is term limited.  The Legislature saw significant turnover  There were many uncontested races and a lack of Democratic opponents.



Gov. Edwards is in his last term, serving as one of only two Democratic governors in the Southeast Region. While Attorney General Jeff Landry is the only candidate to have formally announced his bid for Governor, many others are rumored to jump in. Potential candidates include Sens. Bill Cassidy (R) and John Kennedy (R), Rep. Garret Graves (R), Lt. Gov. Billy Nungesser (R), State Treasurer John Schroder (R), State Sen. Sharon Hewitt (R), and State Rep. Richard Nelson (R). What’s missing from that list? A Democrat. It remains to be seen if a serious Democratic candidate will jump into the race.

LOUISIANA SENATE

In the 39 member chamber, six seats are up for grabs due to term limits, and another three are being vacated, two of which are simply retiring from the Senate. Historically, the Senate has been a more pragmatic and moderate body, even given the Republican supermajority. Unlike the 2019 election, it does not look like any Senate members are moving down to the “lower chamber.”

With the 2023 Legislative Session set to convene Apr. 10 and be mostly limited to fiscal matters, the Senate will again debate tax reform in Louisiana, including the elimination of the State’s individual income tax. However, the elimination of these taxes will result in significant loss of State revenue which will be a challenge to overcome. Aside from fiscal legislation, the Senate will continue to prioritize infrastructure investments and ongoing hurricane and flood relief efforts.

LOUISIANA HOUSE

Term limits were and continue to be a major part of the political discussion in the Pelican State. In 2023, 15 of 105 seats in the House will be vacated due to expiring terms, and at least another 20 seats will become available from House members seeking other offices. A majority of those members seeking other offices are aiming to cross the chamber to the Senate, but some are running for higher office such as Governor, Attorney General, and Treasurer. Republicans hope to increase their numbers in the House and achieve supermajority.

Like the Senate, the Republican leadership in the House will focus on passing meaningful tax reform led by the Ways and Means Committee. In September, the Committee commenced hearings on various proposals including eliminating the State’s individual income tax. Looking beyond fiscal matters, economic development and improving Louisiana’s public education school system will be a top priority as well.

SUMMARY

Under Louisiana’s jungle primary system, all candidates for public office appear on the same ballot, regardless of party affiliation. If no candidate receives a majority of the votes during the primary election on Oct 14, 2023, a runoff election will be held on Nov 18, 2023 between the top two candidates in the primary. In 2019, the Louisiana Legislature saw historical turnover and a major win for Republicans. The Senate moved from a majority to a supermajority and the House ended up with just a few seats shy of a supermajority for Republicans.

MAINE

OVERVIEW

Maine attracts considerable attention from national political parties and super PACs because of its reputation as a "purple state," with one of the largest voting blocs in the country (32%) registered as "Independents." The race for governor and both congressional campaigns have led to nearly wall to wall advertising on digital and traditional media platforms.

Notably, since 2018, ranked choice voting (RCV) or "instant run off voting," has been used for congressional campaigns; however, the Maine Super Judicial Court found that using RCV for gubernatorial or legislative races would violate the Maine Constitution

GOVERNOR

KEY TAKEAWAYS



Gov. Jane Mills won reelection.

 Democrats retain control of both legislative chambers.

 Rep. Jared Golden and former Rep. Bruce Polliquin remain in a close race. Ranked choice will determine the outcome.

 Rep. Chellie Pingree won.

The 2022 election was the most expensive gubernatorial race in the state's history with $5.5 million raised by supporters of incumbent Gov. Janet Mills (D), and $2.5 million from backers of former Gov. Paul LePage (R). Also in the mix was Sam Hunkler, an independent candidate with little impact on this year's outcome, unlike the 2010 and 2014 elections.

Not surprisingly, the top issues in this race were inflation, abortion, education, and lobstering regulations. LePage and his allies tried to use the issue of federal right whale protections and their impact on Maine's lobstering industry as a major wedge issue against Gov. Mills. Meanwhile, Gov. Mills' backers attempted to paint LePage as an angry and out of control governor, and someone who cannot be trusted to protect women's reproductive rights. Gov. Janet Mills outperformed nearly all public polling and coasted to a comfortable victory by 12% points. Notably, with 88% of precincts reported, Gov. Mills increased her winning share of the votes by nearly 25,000 votes from her initial victory four years ago

MAINE SENATE

The Democrats retained their majority in the Senate by winning at least 22, and perhaps 23, of a possible 35 seats. Republicans captured the remaining 12/13 seats. Of note, current Senate President Troy Jackson's race was the most expensive Senate race in the state's history, and Sen. Jackson prevailed and even secured more votes than his opponent (Rep. Sue Bernard) in her hometown. Before the election, some questioned whether Sen. Jackson would remain in leadership but given the results, it's unclear if he will face a challenge. It's expected that Republicans will choose new leadership, Sens. Trey Stewart, Lisa Kiem, and Brad Farrin are a possibility.

MAINE HOUSE

The 151 member House of Representatives has been under Democratic control for the last five elections and 2022 proved no different. The Democrats increased their majority by a few seats. Speaker Ryan Fecteau and House Majority Leader Michelle Dunphy are both prohibited by the state's term limits from running for reelection. In the coming days, House Democrats will meet to vote for their leadership slate. Currently, it is expected that Majority Whip Rachel Talbot Ross may be the next Speaker of the House. Early indications are that Democrats will have 82 seats, and a likelihood of two left leaning Independents also caucusing with them.

Much like the Democrats' leaders from the last legislature, House Republican leaders Rep. Kathleen Dillingham and Assistant Leader Rep. Joel Stetkis are ineligible to run for reelection due to term limits. There are at least two names rumored to be pursuing the role of House Republican Leader, Rep Laurel Libby and Rep Josh Morris. House Republicans are expected to occupy 67 House seats.

It is fair to say legislative Republicans were bullish on their chances to win one or both Chambers of the Legislature. At this point it is too early to say the precise cause of their falling short; however, some finger pointing has already begun regarding the unsuccessful Republican nominee for governor as being a potential drag on Republican races overall

SUMMARY

Despite the intense interest in the outcome of the governor's race, congressional seats, and control of the Maine legislature, there are other future political issues of critical importance. Most notably, a large unknown is whether Sen. Angus King (I) will run for reelection in 2024. Should he choose to run, he will be difficult to beat. However, should he not run, there is likely to be a tidal wave of interest from both parties, and among those expected to explore running are Reps. Golden (D ME) and Pingree (D ME), and State Sen. Rick Bennett (R).

The growing trend of ballot initiatives in Maine extends to policy at the local level. In Portland, citizens voted on 13 ballot measures supported by the Democratic Socialists of America. The ballot included five citizen initiatives; two on short term rentals, rent control, and minimum wage including eliminating the tipped credit and restricting cruise ships. Voters rejected four of the citizen initiatives by a wide margin but passed modifications to their existing rent control. Voters also decided on changes to the city charter with eight ballot questions, and two of those questions received local opposition that was also rejected by voters. Interestingly, Portland's ballot initiatives have prompted statewide discussion on the need for ballot question reform.

In the upcoming Nov. 2023 election, there could be up to three statewide referenda on the ballot. The first question would force Maine's two investor owned utilities (Central Maine Power (CMP) and Versant Power) to be sold to create a consumer owned utility. The second would prohibit foreign government spending in Maine elections the focus of this effort is because both CMP and Versant are foreign owned. The last referendum question is the utilities' response to the first question by requiring a statewide vote to confirm voters' desire to incur a debt of $1 billion or more.

MARYLAND

OVERVIEW

For the first time in a generation, the Old Line State elected a new Governor, Comptroller, and Attorney General in the same election. As expected, Democrats won out across the board with Wes Moore winning the race for Governor, Del Brooke Lierman becoming the next Comptroller, and Rep. Anthony Brown securing his position as Attorney General. In the General Assembly, Democrats retained their supermajorities in the House of Delegates and Senate It is important to note that, while statewide races have been called, there are nearly 300,000 mail in ballots yet to be counted in Maryland, so many of the races for local or state offices will not be determined for several days.

KEY TAKEAWAYS



Democrat Wes Moore was easily elected as the first African American Governor in Maryland's history.

 Democrats retained their supermajorities in the Senate, House, and congressional Delegation.

At the local level, each County elected Councilmen or Commissioners as well as County Executives in the Charter Counties. The most competitive County Executive races were in Anne Arundel, Frederick, Howard, and Wicomico Counties with the following winners: Anne Arundel County: Too close to call between Steuart Pittman and Jessica Haire; Frederick County: Michael Hough; Howard County: Calvin Ball; Wicomico County: Julie Giordano. In Congress, Democrat Glenn Ivey will replace Rep. Anthony Brown, and the Maryland Delegation will remain 7 1 or 6 2 in favor of the Democrats, with the Rep. David Trone versus Del. Neil Parrott race still too close to call. Sen. Chris Van Hollen easily won his reelection as well.

GOVERNOR

Best selling author, combat veteran, and former nonprofit CEO Wes Moore comfortably won his bid for Governor over his Republican challenger, Del Dan Cox, with Moore currently leading Cox by 23%. Democrats will now control the Governor's office for the first time in eight years. Moore's running mate for Lt. Governor, Aruna Miller, is a former Delegate representing Montgomery County. Miller is a civil engineer by training and has 25 years of service at the Montgomery County Department of Transportation.

Gov. elect Moore, like his predecessor Gov. Larry Hogan, has never held elected office and polled very well heading into Election Day. His campaign slogan, "leave no one behind," served as a rallying cry for voters who liked his plans to cultivate a Maryland that provides an equal opportunity to succeed by securing better jobs, higher wages, and building wealth that can be passed on by Maryland citizens to their families. Specifically, Moore campaigned on implementing a $15/hour minimum wage, eliminating barriers to homeownership, improving public safety via accountability policing and investment community based violence intervention programs, and modernizing Maryland's

transportation infrastructure. Moore has proven to be a prolific fundraiser, with a war chest of close to $4 million, almost ten times that of his opponent Dan Cox. He also benefited greatly from Gov. Hogan and other prominent Republicans distancing themselves from Cox after the primary.

Gov. elect Moore and Lt. Gov. elect Aruna Miller will be sworn in on Jan. 18, 2023, making history as Maryland's first Black Governor and first Asian American and immigrant Lieutenant Governor.

MARYLAND SENATE

The 47 member Maryland Senate will be comprised of 13 15 Republicans and 32 34 Democrats under the leadership of Senate President Bill Ferguson, pending the outcome of two races that are currently too close to call. Prior to this election, seven Senators announced their retirement, and one was defeated in a Republican Primary. Republicans have long sought to flip five seats, which would block the Democrats' 29 vote supermajority in the Senate, but their efforts have not been successful. In the General Election, the races for Districts 9, 33, and 34 were classified as fairly competitive. In District 9, Sen. Katie Fry Hester (D) retained her seat by defeating Del. Reid Novotny; in District 33, the race between Del Sid Saab and Dawn Gile is still too close to call; and, in District 34, Christian Miele is currently leading Mary Dulany James, but the race is too close to call. The Democrats will still strongly control the chamber with a supermajority of members. The Senate could still see some turnover if any members leave to join the Moore Administration, which would also likely create several changes in Senate Committee leadership.

MARYLAND HOUSE

Democrats easily retained their supermajority in the House of Delegates with 99 101 Democrats and 40 42 Republicans expected to be elected, pending several races that are too close to call. Seven Delegate districts were considered competitive races, including Districts 8, 9, 12, 29B, 30A, 33A, and 33C. One of the most closely watched races was St. Mary's County (29 B) that featured a rematch of former Del. Deb Rey (R) and the Economic Matters Committee Vice Chair Brian Crosby (D), in which Crosby ultimately retained his seat.

House Leadership remains mostly intact, with two new Chairs already having been announced prior to the election to replace retiring Delegates. Del. Ben Barnes is now Chair of the Appropriations Committee and Del. Joseline Pena Melnyk has taken over as Chair of the Health and Government Operations Committee. The House is expected to reflect a much more progressive tone than in recent years, with an influx of first year members who will all be looking to make their mark during their first term in office.

SUMMARY

Maryland has regained a Democratic trifecta after eight years with a Republican Governor. Gov. elect Wes Moore will certainly have a strong working relationship with Senate President Bill Ferguson and Speaker Adrienne Jones as they work together on budget priorities, decriminalizing marijuana for those over the age of 21, and appointing hundreds of employees to cabinet and sub cabinet positions. While

the General Assembly will have increased budget authority in the upcoming session, there is likely to be extensive collaboration between the Moore Administration and legislative leaders. Several Democrats are expected to start jockeying for position to possibly run for Congress or the U.S. Senate in 2024, especially with recent speculation that Sen. Ben Cardin (D) will not run for a fourth term.

MISSISSIPPI

OVERVIEW

In June, Mississippi held primaries for all four of its congressional seats. In three of the four races, incumbents won. The one outlier was MS 4, which encompasses the southern portion of the state and is the congressional seat currently held by Rep. Steven Palazzo (R MS). The six term incumbent was defeated by Jackson County Sherriff Mike Ezell.

KEY TAKEAWAYS



Statewide and Legislative elections are coming up in 2023.

 More conservative candidates in primaries could cause leadership changes in the Legislature

On Tuesday, there were no surprises in Mississippi. The lone Democrat, 2nd Congressional District Congressman Bennie Thompson, was reelected for a 15th term and Republicans held the other three congressional seats. Rep. Trent Kelly defeated Diane Black, Rep. Michael Guest defeated Shuwaski Young, and Mike Ezell defeated Johnny Dupree.

While there may not be too many changes in Mississippi’s federal delegation, the 2022 elections do foreshadow the wave of statewide and legislative races to be held in 2023.

GOVERNOR & THE LEGISLATURE

In 2023, Mississippi will hold elections for all statewide offices, all legislative seats, and most local officials. At the top of the ticket will be Governor Tate Reeves (R), who will be seeking reelection for his second and final term. The qualifying period for the Governor’s race opens on Jan 1 and closes on March 1, due to this, no one has officially announced that they intend to challenge the Governor. While there have been several names rumored to run, the common belief is that Governor Reeves’ campaign “war chest,” involvement with the Republican Governor’s Association (RGA), and growing national name recognition, will be enough to scare off most opponents.

The Legislative Session before a statewide election year is critical for legislators because this is the last chance to fulfill promises made on the campaign trail. The 2023 Legislative Session is shaping up to be one of the most politically important sessions in recent memory because the two men that lead the House and Senate may have challengers going into 2023. The 2023 Mississippi Legislative Session begins on Jan. 3 and is scheduled to end Apr. 2.

STATE SENATE

In Mississippi, the Lieutenant Governor presides over the day to day dealings of the Senate. This includes assigning chairmanships and setting the legislative agenda through his power to assign bills to committees. In 2019, Lt. Gov. Delbert Hosemann was elected, and Republicans solidified a 36 seat supermajority in the Senate. Since the beginning of this term, Republican leadership has involved

Democrats less and less as the term has progressed. However, there is a growing schism between the Republicans over several votes that Lt. Governor Hosemann has asked his Republican caucus to take. As a result, it is likely that Lt. Gov. Hosemann will face a significant challenger from the more right wing of the Republican Party in 2023.

STATE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIV ES

In Mississippi, the Speaker of the House of Representatives is elected by the body at the beginning of every term. Now in his third term, Speaker Phillip Gunn currently presides over the House and enjoys a 75 member Republican supermajority. However, there is currently a growing contingency of House members that are ready to usher in new leadership. It is widely believed that the current Speaker Pro Tempore, Jason White, will be the next Speaker of the House. Whether Rep White has the votes to end Speaker Gunn’s term early and assume the Speakership in January, remains to be seen. To challenge a sitting speaker requires a two thirds vote of the body and history has proven that a two thirds majority is hard to come by, even in a supermajority.

SUMMARY

Mississippi is not immune to the national political climate and thus it is expected that this election will shape the conversation for the 2023 elections. What this means in Mississippi with Republicans controlling all three branches of government is that moderates are finding it harder to get elected. More “conservative” challengers are expected in legislative races which will dictate the legislative agenda in the upcoming session.

OKLAHOMA

OVERVIEW

Oklahoma continues to be one of the most conservative states in the country. Over 80 percent of both the State House and Senate are held by Republicans along with every statewide office. The supermajority for the Republican Party is the largest in the state’s history. Gov. Kevin Stitt was elected for a second term with 55.45% of the vote. Lt. Gov. Matt Pinnell was also reelected for a second term receiving nearly 64.87% of the vote. The metropolitan areas of Oklahoma City and Tulsa continue to trend purple while most rural areas of the state are dominated by Republican voters.

GOVERNOR

KEY TAKEAWAYS



Republicans remain in complete control of statewide offices, state house, and state senate.



Gov. Kevin Stitt begins his second term focused on tax reform and continued economic growth.

Gov. Kevin Stitt, former CEO of Gateway Mortgage, was elected for a second term, defeating Democratic candidate Joy Hofmeister. Gov. Stitt had some notable accomplishments in his first term, including managing the state to secure its largest budget surplus in history with nearly $3 billion in savings. In addition, Oklahoma has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the country and ranks as the 11th fastest growing population in the nation. Upon being sworn in on Jan. 9, 2023, Gov. Stitt will continue promoting his vision of making Oklahoma a "“Top 10 State” while looking to pursue school choice, stronger health outcomes, reduction in taxes, and continued economic diversification. Oklahoma continues to be a top energy producing state, as well as a leader in aerospace and defense.

OKLAHOMA SENATE

The Oklahoma State Senate is comprised of 48 members. 40 seats are held by Republicans and 8 seats held by Democrats. We anticipate the Senate Leadership to remain the same with Sen. Greg Treat serving as President Pro Tempore, Sen. Greg McCortney as Majority Floor Leader, and Sen. Roger Thompson as Chair of the Committee on Appropriations. The Senate priorities will be focused on school choice, tax reforms, and maintaining a strong state budget. The Democratic minority will continue to advocate for the rights of women and children, increased funding for public education, and affordable healthcare. New Senate members will be sworn in on Nov. 16, 2022.

OKLAHOMA HOUSE

The Oklahoma House is comprised of 101 members of which 81 are Republicans and 20 are Democrats. Speaker Charles McCall is expected to serve his fourth term as Speaker, making him the longest serving Republican Speaker in Oklahoma history. The remainder of House Leadership is also expected to stay intact with Rep. Jon Echols as Majority Floor Leader, and Rep. Kevin Wallace as Chair of the House

Appropriations Committee. New House members will be sworn in on Nov. 16, 2022, and the first day of next session is Feb. 6, 2023. The House priorities will likely focus on continued economic diversification, expanding state infrastructure, and possible tax reforms. Democrats in the State House will push for the rights of women and children, increased spending for public education and affordable healthcare.

SUMMARY

As Gov. Stitt embarks on his second term in office the level of cooperation between the Legislature and executive branch remains a major question. The infighting amongst Republicans over issues like school choice and tribal relations have created a level of political tension and uncertainty. Moving forward there will have to be a stronger working relationship between the Administration and Legislature to achieve major policy initiatives. With most economic indicators in the state remaining strong it may set the stage for the Legislature to consider some major tax reforms in the coming session. In addition, Oklahomans will have an opportunity to legalize recreational use of cannabis for adults over 21 with State Question 820 on March 7, 2023.

TEXAS

OVERVIEW

Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office in 28 years and that trend continued in 2022. Recent polling has shown the economy, inflation, border security, and crime are top of mind for Texas voters and the same polls suggest Republicans enjoy a 2:1 advantage over Democrats as the party trusted to handle those issues. The Texas Attorney General race appeared somewhat competitive in early polling, but incumbent, General Ken Paxton, won a third term by a comfortable 10 point margin.

KEY TAKEAWAYS





Republicans maintain the majority in the House and Senate.

Five incumbent state senators and 25 House incumbents did not run for reelection.



The Rio Grande Valley sees several Republican candidates win in an historically Democratic region of the state.

The race for Texas Governor attracted national attention with both candidates raising and spending over $100 million. Democratic candidate Beto O'Rourke trailed Governor Abbott in public and private polls anywhere from 5 10 points on average despite outraising the Governor since February.

GOVERNOR

Gov. Abbott defeated Democratic candidate Beto O’Rourke 55 43, securing his third term, and sending O’Rourke to his second statewide loss. Republicans have now held the Governor’s office since former President George W. Bush’s first gubernatorial term in 1994.

Gov. Abbott will be sworn into office on Jan. 17, 2023, and will announce his priority items for the upcoming session in his State of the State address in the early months of the legislative session. The expectation is the Governor will focus on the issues of border security, property taxes, K 12 education, and the allocation of federal dollars for education, health care, and infrastructure. Last session, Gov. Abbott recalled the Legislature three times and vetoed the article of the budget that funds the Legislature, which led to a tense standoff with the Legislature.

TEXAS SENATE

Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick defeated Democratic candidate Mike Collier 54 43 in their second consecutive head to head match up. The win signals the upper chamber will remain a staunchly conservative body. There will be six new senators this session when the Legislature gavels in on Jan. 10, 2023. Three of the new senators (Tan Parker, Mayes Middleton, and Phil King) are former Texas House members eager to collaborate with the Lieutenant Governor. Ten of the 31 members secured victory after winning their primaries, as they were unopposed in the general election. Of those ten, seven were Republicans and

three were Democrats. Current returns show a balance of 19 Republicans and 12 Democrats, which is a net gain of one seat for Republicans.

One of the most tightly contested races in the Texas Senate was District 27, an open seat in the Rio Grande Valley that spans from the southern portion of Corpus Christi to the Mexican border. Both parties invested significant time and resources to secure a victory in this historically safe Democratic seat, where Democrat Morgan LaMantia currently leads Republican Adam Hinojosa by a razor thin 500 vote margin, with a recount likely. Both candidates ran on strong law enforcement and border security messages, reflecting the Valley's recent and seismic political shift toward traditional Republican themes.

The Senate will focus on several key issues in the upcoming session including border security, education, property tax cuts, school safety, workforce issues, economic development, mental health, water and wastewater infrastructure, and air quality.

TEXAS HOUSE

The House of Representatives consists of 150 Members, of which there are 86 Republicans and 64 Democrats. Redistricting significantly reduced the number of competitive seats, but there were 25 seats open due to retirements, incumbents running for higher office, or pairing incumbents. Fifty eight of the 150 Texas House members did not have a general election opponent. Of those 58 members, 36 were Republicans and 22 were Democrats. Current returns show a balance of 86 Republicans and 64 Democrats, which is a net gain of three seats for Republicans

SUMMARY

Republicans hold all 28 statewide offices and both chambers of the Legislature, as they have since 2003. However, Democrats continue to dominate city and county races in the state's largest urban areas. Democratic incumbent Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo appears to have hung on to her seat for a second term against Republican Alex Mealer in a race that attracted national attention and millions of dollars in contributions. Democrats control the mayorships and county judge seats in all of Texas’ five largest cities and counties, except for Tarrant County, which reelected a Republican as County Judge.

Texas gained two congressional seats after reapportionment. These seats were split between the parties, leaving the delegation with 25 Republicans and 13 Democrats. The districts performed as expected after redistricting but it is noteworthy that Republican Monica de la Cruz won a Rio Grande Valley seat previously held by Democrat Vicente Gonzalez, who moved to the neighboring 34th District and won convincingly. The Rio Grande Valley, made up of four southern counties of Cameron, Willacy, Hidalgo, and Starr, has long been a Democratic stronghold.

HOUSE OUTCOMES MAP

SENATE OUTCOMES MAP

INCOMING MEMBERS

SENATE DEMOCRATS

John Fetterman, PA

Peter Welch, VT

HOUSE DEMOCRATS

Becca Balint, VT AL

Nikki Budzinski, IL 13

Greg Casar, TX 35

Jasmine Crockett, TX 30

Don Davis, NC 1

Chris Deluzio, PA 17

Valerie Foushee, NC 4

Maxwell Frost, FL 10

Robert Garcia, CA 42

Daniel Goldman, NY 10

Glenn Ivey, MD 4

Jeff Jackson, NC 14

Johnathan Jackson, IL 1

Greg Landsman, OH 1

Summer Lee, PA 12

Seth Magaziner, RI 2

Morgan McGarvey, KY 3

Robert Menendez, Jr., NJ 8

Jared Moskowitz, FL 23

Wily Nickel, NC 13

Brittany Pettersen, CO 7

Delia Ramirez, IL 3

Hillary Schloten, MI 3

Emilia Sykes, OH 13

Shri Thanedar, MI 13

Jill Tokuda, HI 2

Gabriel Vasquez, NM 2

SENATE REPUBLICANS

Katie Britt, AL

Ted Budd, NC

Markwayne Mullin, OK Eric Schmitt, MO J D Vance, OH

HOUSE REPUBLICANS

Mark Alford, MO 4

Aaron Bean, FL 4

Josh Brecheen, OK 2

Eric Burlison, MO 7

Mike Collins, GA 10

Eli Crane, AZ 2

Anthony D’Esposito, NY 4

Monica De La Cruz, TX 15

Chuck Edwards, NC 11

Mike Ezell, MS 4

Russell Fry, SC 7

Harriet Hageman, WY AL

Erin Houchin, IN 9

Wesley Hunt, TX 38

John James, MI 10

Jen Kiggans, VA 2

Laurel Lee, FL 15

Nick Langworthy, NY 23

Nicholas LaLota, NY 1

Michael Lawler, NY 17

Anna Luna, FL 13

Morgan Luttrell, TX 8

Rich McCormick, GA 6

Max Miller, OH 7

Cory Mills, FL 7

Marcus Molinaro, NY 19

Nathaniel Moran, TX 1

Zach Nunn, IA 3

Andy Ogles, TN 5

George Santos, NY 3

Keith Self, TX 3

Dale Strong, AL 5

Derrick Van Orden, WI 3

Rudy Yakym, IN 2

OUTGOING MEMBERS

SENATE DEMOCRATS

Patrick Leahy, VT (retiring)

HOUSE DEMOCRATS

Cindy Axne, IA 3 (lost general)

Karen Bass, CA 37 (ran for Los Angeles Mayor)

Carolyn Bourdeaux, GA 7 (lost primary)

Anthony Brown, MD 4 (elected Attorney General)

Cheri Bustos, IL 17 (retiring)

G.K. Butterfield, NC 1 (retiring)

Jim Cooper, TN 5 (retiring)

Charlie Crist, FL 13 (ran for Governor)

Val Demings, FL 10 (ran for Senate)

Peter DeFazio, OR 4 (retiring)

Ted Deutch, FL 22 (resigned)

Mike Doyle, PA 18 (retiring)

Eddie Bernice Johnson, TX 30 (retiring)

Mondaire Jones, NY 17 (lost primary)

Kai Kahele, HI 2 (ran for Governor)

Ron Kind, WI 3 (retiring)

Ann Kirkpatrick, AZ 2 (retiring)

Jim Langevin, RI 2 (retiring)

Conor Lamb, PA 17 (ran for Senate)

Brenda Lawrence, MI 14 (retiring)

Andy Levin, MI 9 (lost primary)

Alan Lowenthal, CA 47 (retiring)

Elaine Luria, VA 2 (lost general)

Tom Malinowski, NJ 7 (lost general)

Carolyn Maloney, NY 12 (lost primary)

Jerry McNerney, CA 9 (retiring)

Stephanie Murphy, FL 7 (retiring)

Marie Newman, IL 3 (lost primary)

Tom O’Halleran, AZ 2 (lost general)

Ed Perlmutter, CO 7 (retiring)

David Price, NC 4 (retiring)

Lucille Roybal Allard, CA 40 (retiring)

Kathleen Rice, NY 4 (retiring)

Bobby Rush, IL 1 (retiring)

Tim Ryan, OH 13 (ran for Senate)

Michael San Nicolas, GU AL (ran for Governor)

Kurt Schrader, OR 5 (lost primary)

Albio Sires, NJ 8 (retiring)

Jackie Speier, D 14 (retiring)

Peter Welch, VT AL (elected to Senate)

John Yarmuth, KY 3 (retiring)

SENATE REPUBLICANS

Roy Blunt, MO (retiring)

Richard Burr, NC (retiring)

Jim Inhofe, OK (retiring)

Rob Portman, OH (retiring)

Richard Shelby, AL (retiring)

Pat Toomey, PA (retiring)

HOUSE REPUBLICANS

Kevin Brady, TX 8 (retiring)

Mo Brooks, AL 5 (ran for Senate)

Ted Budd, NC 13 (elected to Senate)

Madison Cawthorn, NC 11 (lost primary)

Steve Chabot, OH 1 (lost general)

Liz Cheney, WY AL (lost primary)

Connie Conway, CA 22 (retiring)

Mayra Flores, TX 34 (lost general)

Bob Gibbs, OH 7 (retiring)

Louie Gohmert, TX 1 (ran for Attorney General)

Anthony Gonzalez, OH 16 (retiring)

Yvette Herrell, NM 2 (lost general)

Jaime Herrera Beutler, WA 3 (lost primary)

Jody Hice, GA 10 (ran for Secretary of State)

Vicky Hartzler, MO 4 (ran for Senate)

Trey Hollingsworth, IN 9 (retiring)

Chris Jacobs, NY 27 (retiring)

John Katko, NY 24 (retiring)

Billy Long, MO 7 (ran for Senate)

Adam Kinzinger, IL 16 (retiring)

Fred Keller, PA 12 (retiring)

David McKinley, WV 1 (lost primary)

Peter Meijer, MI 3 (lost primary)

Markwayne Mullin, OK 2 (elected to Senate)

Steven Palazzo, MS 4 (lost primary)

Tom Rice, SC 7 (lost primary)

Joe Sempolinski, NY 23 (retiring)

Van Taylor, TX 3 (retiring)

Fred Upton, MI 6 (retiring)

Jackie Walorski, IN 2 (deceased)

Lee Zeldin, NY 1 (ran for Governor)

INCOMING VETERAN MEMBERS

HO USE DEMOCRATS

Donald Davis, NC-1

Christopher Deluzio, PA 17

Jeff Jackson, NC 14

SEN ATE REPUBLICANS

J.D. Vance, OH

HO USE REPUBLICANS

Eli Crane, AZ-2

Wesley Hunt, TX 38

John James, MI 10

Jennifer Kiggans, VA-2

Nicholas LaLota, NY-1

Anna Luna, FL 13

Morgan Lutrell, TX-8

Rich McCormick, GA-6

Max Miller, OH-7

Cory Mills, FL-7

Zach Nunn, IA-3

Keith Self, TX-3

Derrick Van Orden, WI-3

INCUMBENT VETERAN MEMBERS

SENATE DEMOCRATS

Richard Blumenthal, CT

Tom Carper, DE

Tammy Duckworth, IL

Mark Kelly, AZ, race not yet called

Ed Markey, MA

Gary Peters, MI

Jack Reed, RI

HOUSE DEMOCRATS

Jake Auchincloss, MA-4

Sandford Bishop, GA-2

Salud Carbajal, CA 24

Jason Crow, CO-6

Ruben Gallego, AZ-3

Chrissy Houlahan, PA-6

Ted Lieu, CA 36

Seth Moulton, MA-6

Jimmy Paneta, CA 19

Bill Pascrell, NJ-9

Pat Ryan, NY 18

Bobby Scot, VA-3

Mikie Sherrill, NJ 11

Mike Thompson, CA-4

SENATE REPUBLICANS

Tom Coton, AR

Joni Ernst, IA

Lindsey Graham, SC

Roger Marshall, KS

Mitch McConnell, KY

Rick Scot, FL

Dan Sullivan, AK

Roger Wicker, MS

Todd Young, IN

HOUSE REPUBLICANS

Mark Amodei, NV-2

Brian Babin, TX 36

Jim Baird, IN-4

Don Bacon, NE-2

Jim Banks, IN-3

Jack Bergman, MI-1

Mike Bost, IL 12

Vern Buchanan, FL 16

Larry Bucshon, IN-8

Mike Carey, OH 15

Dan Crenshaw, TX-2

Andrew Clyde, GA-9

Rick Crawford, AR-1

Warren Davidson, OH-8

Neal Dunn, FL-2

Jake Ellzey, TX-6

Pat Fallon, TX-4

Scot Fitzgerald, WI-5

Scot Franklin, FL 18

Mike Gallagher, WI-8

Mike Garcia, CA 27, race not yet called

Mark Green, TN-7

Tony Gonzales, TX 23

Bret Guthrie, KY-2

Joe Wilson, SC-2

Steve Womack, AR-3

Andy Harris, MD-1

Clay Higgins, LA-3

Darrell Issa, CA 48

Trent Kelly, MS-1

Barry Loudermilk, GA 11

Ronny Jackson, TX 13

Bill Johnson, OH-6

Brian Mast, FL 21

Mariannete Miller Meeks, IA-1

Barry Moore, AL-2

Troy Nehls, TX 22

Greg Pence, IN-6

Scot Perry, PA 10

August Pfluger, TX 11

Guy Reschenthaler, PA 14

Hal Rogers, KY-5

Greg Steube, FL 17

Chris Stewart, UT-2

William Timmons, SC-4

Michael Waltz, FL-6

Brad Wenstrup, OH-2

Washington, DC Annapolis, MD Atlanta, GA Augusta, ME Austin, TX Baton Rouge, LA Chicago, IL Denver, C O Des Moines, IA Frankfort, KY Houston, TX Jackson, MS Oklahoma City, OK Springfield, IL