II. HOUSE

U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

OVERVIEW

At time of publication of this report, the Republicans are on track to regain control of the House of Representatives for the first time since 2018, ending four years of Democratic control in Washington and ushering in a new era of divided government. Democrats overperformed expectations, holding on to a number of competitive seats and losing the majority by a narrower margin than expected. The new Republican majority will be very focused on executing both their legislative and oversight agendas with an eye towards positioning the party for success in the 2024 elections. Executive Branch officials will quickly face subpoenas and oversight hearings on a wide range of issues in the new Congress.

The midterm elections were largely a referendum on President Biden and the economy. Republicans have been traveling the country asserting that Democrats' policies are to blame for rising inflation, high energy prices, and a slowing economy. Additionally, Congressional Democrats' use of two reconciliation bills to enact trillions of dollars in new spending became a major argument by the Republicans as wasteful government spending and they emphasized a need for Republican control of the House. Democrats primarily amplified a pro-choice and prodemocracy message in an effort to turn out its base, using the recent Supreme Court decision in the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization case and GOP candidate quality in some races to their advantage.

The new Republican majority will attempt to stymie President Biden's agenda, while also conducting significant oversight of the Administration. Expect the Afghanistan withdrawal, COVID-19 response, southern border issues, and flow of federal dollars to all be high on the oversight priority list, with the conservative wing of the party pushing for even more aggressive tactics, like impeaching the Department of Homeland Security Secretary. House Republicans will look to move quickly on their legislative and oversight agendas as the 2024 presidential hopefuls will likely start jockeying for the position very early in the cycle.

The 118th Congress will look different than the previous Congress. The House GOP Conference has continued to recruit diverse candidates and will once again grow the number of female members in its ranks. With a slimmer than anticipated majority, House GOP leadership will have to corral both moderate members and members of the conservative wing. On the Democratic side, the narrow margin in the House will give moderates significant leverage in any bipartisan legislating. While there might be some room for bipartisan dealmaking over the next two years, expect the divided government and looming 2024 elections to significantly hamper the ability of Congress and the Administration to find common ground.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

 Republicans captured the majority and will confront the

Biden Administration.  Democrats faced challenges in overcoming Republican attacks on inflation.  Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) is likely to be the next Speaker of the House.

REPUBLICAN LEADERSHIP (MAJORITY) Republicans will hold their leadership elections on November 15, with the remainder of their organizing conference to select the Steering Committee and committee chairs scheduled to occur over the ensuing weeks. Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), who has been a significant fundraiser for his GOP colleagues as Republicans worked to take back the House, is likely to be the next Speaker of the House. Rep. McCarthy only needs the support of a majority of his Republican colleagues to win the internal GOP leadership election for Speaker, however he will need the support of 218 of his colleagues on the House floor on January 3, 2023 to become Speaker. Given the slimmer than anticipated majority for House Republicans, McCarthy may have to enter deal-making mode with the more conservative wing of his Conference to secure the votes necessary to become Speaker.

Current Republican Whip Rep. Steve Scalise (R-LA) is expected to ascend to Majority Leader, and Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) is expected to remain in her role as GOP Conference Chair. This leaves the race for Majority Whip as the most contested leadership race with three members vying for the number three spot in House Republican Leadership: Rep. Drew Ferguson (R-GA), currently the Chief Deputy Whip; Rep. Jim Banks (R-IN), currently chair of the Republican Study Committee; and Rep. Tom Emmer (R-MN), currently chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC). All three members have a base of support within the Conference, which will likely keep this race close and could make it the first House GOP leadership race to go to a second ballot in quite some time. Ferguson will argue that he has the most experience whipping votes, which is critical with a tight majority. Banks will make the case that he is the most conservative candidate, particularly given his leadership of the RSC and close ties to Trump. Emmer will attempt to carry the momentum of leading the NRCC the last two cycles when Republicans won back seats and ultimately regained the majority into the Whip job. The final leadership race to note is for NRCC Chair, which is between Rep. Richard Hudson (R-NC) and Rep. Darin LaHood (R-IL).

DEMOCRATIC LEADERSHIP (MINORITY)

As the dust settles post-election, all eyes are on Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) to announce whether she will seek another term in leadership as Minority Leader or step down from her leadership post. Both Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD) and Majority Whip Jim Clyburn's (DSC) futures in leadership will be significantly impacted by Rep. Pelosi's decision. It is worth noting that should Reps. Hoyer and Clyburn cycle off leadership, both would have the option to return to the House Committee on Appropriations, where they have retained their seniority.

A new generation of Democrats have already begun laying the groundwork for leadership bids should Rep. Pelosi and her lieutenants announce the end of their leadership tenures. Members eyeing the top leadership spot so far include Democratic Caucus Chair Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) and Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA). Look to see whether Reps. Hoyer and Clyburn also strive to remain in leadership. Assistant Speaker Katherine Clark (D-MA) and Rep. Pramila Jayapal (DWA) have expressed interest in the second-ranking position of Minority Whip, with Democratic

Caucus Vice-Chair Pete Aguilar (D-CA) potentially interested in running for the Assistant Minority Leader position (if the position is resurrected) or Democratic Caucus Chair. Look for Rep. Joe Neguse (D-CO) to potentially express interest in the Democratic Caucus Chair position, while Reps. Joyce Beatty (D-OH), Madeleine Dean (D-PA), Debbie Dingell (D-MI), and Ted Lieu (D-CA) are likely seeking the Vice-Chair slot. Finally, at the time of publication of this report, Reps. Veronica Escobar (D-TX), Adriano Espaillat (D-NY), Chrissy Houlahan (D-PA), Dean Phillips (D-MN), Nikema Williams (D-GA), and Lauren Underwood (D-IL) have or are expected to declare their candidacy for Co-Chair positions of the Democratic Policy and Communication Committee (DPCC). Rep. Lizzie Fletcher (D-TX) is also expected to run for the leadership position designated to an individual who has served five terms or fewer. Democrats have not yet scheduled internal elections at time of publication of this report, but are likely to make an announcement by midNovember with the elections to be held after the Thanksgiving holiday.

LEGISLATIVE/POLITICAL AGENDA - MAJORITY House Republicans will be focused on a combined legislative and oversight agenda that builds on the arguments they made in the lead up to the midterms, namely that Democrats' policies and spending are to blame for the slowing economy and high prices facing Americans. Combatting inflation, lowering energy prices, and increasing the defense budget while cutting non-defense spending will all be legislative priorities for House Republicans. The oversight agenda will focus on issues like the Afghanistan withdrawal, energy policies, the federal government's COVID-19 response, and the situation at the Southern border. Many of these legislative and oversight priorities are captured in the House Republicans' "Commitment to America," which they released in late September. Expect this to be a topline guiding document that Republicans will work to follow as they build out the agenda for the 118th Congress.

The 2024 elections will loom over the party as it waits to see who will announce their intention to run for President and when. Former President Trump, Vice President Pence, Governor DeSantis, and a host of other governors, senators, and former cabinet secretaries will command a great deal of attention in the first quarter of next year. Republicans will look to shore up key gains they made in seats that President Biden carried in 2020 to ensure they can keep the House majority in the 2024 election

LEGISLATIVE/POLITICAL AGENDA - MINORITY

House Democrats will celebrate more positive results than expected and will need to quickly assess the results to determine what motivated voters to hold key competitive seats and which tactics ultimately led to the loss of others. With a slim margin on the horizon, Democrats will work to shore up unity in their caucus to deny the new majority significant legislative advancements and work to position themselves for success in 2024.Watch for a more vocal moderate bloc emboldened by new and returning Blue Dog Coalition and New Democrat Coalition members and expect the caucus to deploy its most talented messengers on social issues such as reproductive rights, gun violence, and immigration reform. Democrats will also go on the offense against Republicans who won seats carried by President Biden and tie them to the more conservative wing of the Republican party with the hope that they can win these seats back.

House Democrats will also continue to work alongside the Administration to promote the implementation of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), the CHIPS and Science Act, and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) with a focus on the localized impact of dollars drawn down from these initiatives.

NOTABLE DEFEATS, RETIREMENTS OR NEW ADDITIONS - MAJORITY At the time of publication of this report, the following Republican incumbents have succumbed to Democratic challengers: Reps. Steve Chabot (R-OH), Mayra Flores (R-TX), and Yvette Herrell (D-NM). Republicans lost some senior members of the House GOP Conference to retirements and bids for higher office, including Reps. Lee Zeldin (R-NY, lost race for Governor), Kevin Brady (R-TX, retired), John Katko (R-NY, retired), Fred Upton (R-MI, retired), David McKinley (R-WV, lost primary), Tom Rice (R-SC, lost primary), and Rodney Davis (R-IL, lost primary). Reps. Ted Budd (R-NC) and Markwayne Mullin (R-OK) were both successful in their races for the U.S. Senate.

With some election results still being tabulated, Republicans have flipped four seats in New York, almost regaining the majority in the House with NY pickups alone. They have also flipped three seats in Florida.

NOTABLE DEFEATS, RETIREMENTS OR NEW ADDITIONS - MINORITY

At time of publication of this report, the following Democratic incumbents had succumbed to Republican challengers: Reps. Cindy Axne (D-IA), Al Lawson (D-FL), Elaine Luria (D-VA), Tom Malinowski (D-NJ), and Tom O’Halleran (D-AZ). Of note, DCCC Chairman Sean Patrick Maloney (D-NY) was also defeated by a Republican challenger. Democrats lost several members of the caucus to retirements and bids for higher office, including but not limited to Reps. Peter DeFazio (D-OR, retired), Val Demings (D-FL, ran for Senate), Ron Kind (D-WI, retired), Conor Lamb (D-PA, ran for Senate), Stephanie Murphy (D-FL, retired), and Tim Ryan (D-OH, ran for Senate). Rep. Peter Welch (D-VT) was successfully elected to the U.S. Senate. The 118th Congress will include the youngest and first Gen-Z Member of Congress ever elected as incoming Rep. Maxwell Frost (D-FL) prepares to be sworn in at age 25.