III. SENATE

U.S. SENATE

OVERVIEW

The 2022 mid-term election is on-going for the United States Senate, with three races yet to be called. Votes are still being counted in Arizona, where Sen. Mark Kelly (DAZ) maintains a modest lead, and in Nevada where the race is too close to call. If Democrats successfully hold the Arizona seat, the balance of the Senate will stand at 49-49 with two outstanding contests set to determine majority control. In Nevada, Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto is hoping to fend off GOP challenger Adam Laxalt. And, as with 2020, all eyes are on Georgia where a December 6 runoff could yet determine the control of the chamber in the 118th Congress.

Of the remaining outstanding races, all are held by Democratic incumbents and both parties are vying to win at least two of the three in order to secure a Senate majority. At the time of publication, Republicans have successfully held on to 49 of their 50 seats, and Democrats have picked up one seat with the victory of John Fetterman in Pennsylvania, while holding 47 more.

Predictably, Alabama, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina and Oklahoma's Senate seats all remained in GOP hands, and Vermont in Democratic hands after the retirement of Senators in those states. Among other closely watched races, the incumbents prevailed in Colorado, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin.

With the potential for the continuation of the 50/50 party split in the Senate, Vice President Kamala Harris could be called upon again in her role as President of the Senate to cast a tie breaking vote for party leadership. If Sen. Mark Kelly prevails in Arizona, Democrats would still need to win either Nevada or Georgia in order to maintain majority control of the Senate. If in this scenario however, Laxalt wins in Nevada, a Georgia runoff (required under Georgia law if neither Democratic incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock nor Republican challenger Hershel Walker reach a 50% threshold of the vote) would occur on December 6 and likely delay Senate organizing for the 118th Congress until a determination can be made for party control of the chamber. KEY TAKEAWAYS

 Currently the Senate is split 49 to 48 GOP/Democrat.  Three races are too close to call: AZ, GA, & NV.  Republicans and Democrats must win at least two of the outstanding races to gain control of chamber.  PA is the only Senate seat to flip thus far – moving from

Republican into Democratic hands.

*indicates a retiring Senator

DEMOCRATIC LEADERSHIP

No matter the outcome of the Midterms and whether Democrats retain control of the Senate, Sen. Chuck Schumer's (D-NY) position as Democratic Leader is certainly secure. Having led Senate Democrats through the myriad challenges of the longest-ever tenure of an evenly divided 50/50 Senate in the 117th, and having successfully shepherded significant legislative victories for the Biden Administration, Schumer has solidified his support within the caucus ranks.

Similarly, the broader Senate Democratic leadership team of twelve members is likely to remain largely intact. The top caucus positions under Schumer, currently held by Majority Whip Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL), Assistant Leader Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA), and DPCC Chair Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) are unlikely to be challenged and the other members including Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA), Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), Sen. Bernie Sanders (DVT), Sen. Catherine Cortez-Masto (D-NV)*, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV), Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) and Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) will seek to maintain their positions as well.

To the extent changes in leadership structure are possible, there are two factors to consider. First, should Democrats maintain the majority, the President Pro Tempore (PPT) position currently held by retiring Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-VT) will need to be filled. While this role has traditionally been held by the most senior member of the majority party, Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), who will be first in seniority on the Democratic side in the 118th , has indicated she is not interested in becoming PPT. The next in line would be Sen. Murray, who is also poised to take over the Democrats’ top spot on the powerful Appropriations committee.

Second, similar to caucus discussions that took place following the 2020 elections, it is possible there may be some desire, particularly amongst more junior members, to more evenly distribute power and influence in the Senate Dem ranks. In the current Congress, this ultimately played out with the implementation of the so-called “Murphy rule” in which senior Members holding full committee gavels could not select subcommittee posts (particularly powerful Appropriations subcommittee leadership slots) until every Member of the caucus had an opportunity to select a subcommittee gavel. It remains an open question as to whether members will seek to join and/or advance in leadership, or obtain new committee posts, should the opportunity arise.

*should Sen. Cortez-Masto prevail in her re-election bid

REPUBLICAN LEADERSHIP

Regardless of party control of the chamber, Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY) will remain the unquestioned leader of Senate Republicans. With 38 years serving in Senate and the longest tenure of any GOP Senate leader in history (16 years), McConnell swatted off attempts this fall by former President Donald Trump to call into question his ability to lead the party in the 118th Congress.

While McConnell certainly has a faction of the GOP Conference that are often at odds with him, including Sens. Ted Cruz (R-TX), Ron Johnson (R-WI), Mike Lee (R-UT), John Kennedy (R-LA), fellow Kentuckian Rand Paul and Rick Scott (R-FL), he has maintained broad GOP support for an unprecedented tenure when next year he is set to surpass Democratic Leader Mike Mansfield (D-MT) as the longest serving party leader ever).

The GOP's No. 2 position, Republican Whip, will likely remain in the hands of Senator John Thune (R-SD) -- who will be term limited at the end of the 118th Congress. Senator John Barrasso (R-WY) holds the third ranking leadership position of Republican Conference Chair and is expected to continue in that role. The major leadership changes for the Senate GOP leadership will occur in the more junior positions. Senator Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV) has announced her intention to run for Conference Vice Chair, a job that will be vacated by Senator Joni Ernst (R-IA) who will vie for the No. 4 leadership position, Republican Policy Chair (held in the 117th Congress by retiring Senator Roy Blunt (R-MO)). It is expected that Senators John Cornyn (R-TX), Roger Wicker (R-MS), Chuck Grassley (R-IA) – the longest serving GOP Senator – will maintain their unelected leadership positions as advisors to McConnell (other unelected members of leadership include Senators Capito and Portman). Senator Steve Daines (R-MT) is expected to be the NRSC Chair.

LEGISLATIVE/POLITICAL AGENDA - DEMOCRATS

While control of the Senate is yet to be determined, it is clear that even if Democrats maintain a majority in the Senate, the President’s party will be more encumbered by a probable incoming House Republican Majority. Given this, Senate Democrats are likely to focus heavily on two main areas: 1) amplifying and bolstering the significant legislative accomplishments of the previous two years of President Biden’s first term, including ongoing implementation of the American Rescue Plan, the Bipartisan Infrastructure law, the Chips and Science Act, the Inflation

Reduction Act, the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act, the PACT Act and more; and 2) nominations. Maintaining Democratic control of the Senate would perhaps be most significant in terms of continuing the ability to confirm key Biden Administration officials, many of whom will be integral in the implementation efforts of the aforementioned laws, as well as judicial nominations. To date, the Democratic Senate has confirmed 84 judges nominated by President Biden, including Supreme Court Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson, 25 Court of Appeals judges and 58 District Court judicial nominations.

Additionally, Democrats and the Administration are likely to seek opportunities for bipartisan work on a handful of issues beyond the annual “must-pass bills” of appropriations and Defense Authorization. Discussions on topics ranging from workforce/job training to climate/clean energy, cannabis reform, marriage equality, immigration reform and more will remain top priorities for many members.

LEGISLATIVE/POLITICAL AGENDA - REPUBLICAN Regardless of which party is in control of the Senate, Sen. McConnell will continue his welldisciplined efforts to keep Republican Senators united in their opposition to Biden-Schumer priorities. The self-styled “grim reaper” of the socialist agenda, Sen. McConnell has deftly blocked Democratic policy objectives, organizing his caucus and working across the aisle with moderate Senators Krysten Sinema (D-AZ) and Joe Manchin (D-WV). He will continue to slow down consideration of the President’s nominations – especially judicial – as a key negotiating tool.

Unlike the 117th Congress, where Sen. McConnell's GOP acted as the sole bulwark against the Democrats' agenda, the Senate GOP will be bolstered by an energized House Republican conference set to pass an aggressive series of bills early in the session. Unlike the House GOP which often coordinates a specific platform for its Members to push and campaign on, do not expect Senate GOP leadership to lay-out a formal agenda. Both chambers will have shared priorities to curb inflation, reduce spending, address rising crime and the border crisis, and righting bad economy policies.

Should the GOP win the majority, expect Senator McConnell to closely guard the Senate Floor, deflecting issues that are divisive within the GOP while looking for policies that unite his caucus and put the White House on the defense. Sen. McConnell will continue to contend with the isolationist strain of the party, which has linked up with most ardent of Trump supporters to question America's foreign engagement. Sen. McConnell will need to work closely with the Administration to support the Ukraine - which most of his party sees as a proxy war for human freedom in Europe and around the globe, while pushing back against Trump if he dials up the pressure for the US to negotiate a peace deal between Russian and Ukraine.

SENATE COMMITTEE LEADERSHIP FORECAST

Committee Democratic Republican

Aging Bob Casey (PA)

Mike Braun (IN) Agriculture Debbie Stabenow (MI) John Boozman (AR) Appropriations Patty Murray (WA) Susan Collins (ME) Armed Services Jack Reed (RI) Roger Wicker (MS) Banking Sherrod Brown (OH) Tim Scott (SC) Budget Sheldon Whitehouse (RI) Lindsey Graham (SC) Commerce Maria Cantwell (WA) Ted Cruz (TX) Energy Joe Manchin (WV) John Barrasso (WY) EPW Tom Carper (DE) Shelley Moore Capito (WV) Finance Ron Wyden (OR) Mike Crapo (ID) Foreign Relations Bob Menendez (NJ) Jim Risch (ID) HELP Bernie Sanders (I-VT) Rand Paul (KY) or Bill Cassidy (LA) Homeland Security Gary Peters (MI) Rand Paul (KY) or Ron Johnson (WI) Indian Affairs Brian Schatz (HI) Lisa Murkowski (AK) Judiciary Dick Durbin (IL) Chuck Grassley (IA)

Committee Democratic Republican

Rules Amy Klobuchar (MN) Deb Fischer (NE) Small Business Ben Cardin (MD) Joni Ernst (IA) Veterans Affairs Jon Tester (MT) Jerry Moran (KS)

NOTABLE DEFEATS, RETIREMENTS OR NEW ADDITIONS - DEMOCRATS

With races in Nevada, Arizona and Georgia yet to be called, Democrats have thus far successfully defended all 14 of their incumbents while picking up the Pennsylvania seat left open by retiring Sen. Pat Toomey. With Sen. Mark Kelly seemingly poised to hold his seat in Arizona, control of the chamber will likely be determined by the outcomes in Nevada and/or Georgia. Should either Sen. Catherine Cortez-Masto or Sen. Raphael Warnock prevail, Democrats will maintain the majority in the Senate by at least a 50-50 margin.

Late GOP efforts to expand the Senate map in states such as New Hampshire, Colorado and Washington were ultimately unsuccessful, with incumbent Senators in each winning handily.

NOTABLE DEFEATS, RETIREMENTS OR NEW ADDITIONS - REPUBLICAN

Of the 20 seats the GOP was defending in 2022, they are currently holding 19 seats and have lost one. No pick-ups of Democratic seats have occurred yet – though that may change in final results from Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.

What we do know is that from an ideological perspective, the Senate GOP conference will tick more to the right. The retirements of pragmatic conservative and their replacement by more right-leaning Senator-elects such as Eric Schmitt (R-MO) (who has already pledged not to support Mitch McConnell for GOP Leader) and Ted Budd (R-NC) threaten to take the GOP conference in a more conservative direction. Victories for challenger Blake Masters in Arizona and former Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt – who was a leading advocate for Trump recount efforts in the state in 2020 – would continue this trend. The additions of Katie Britt (RAL), JD Vance (R-OH), and Markwayne Mullin (R-OK) are a closer to a one-for-one ideological replacement for their predecessors. And while not racing to the right like the House GOP conference, Senate Republicans are – as a whole – moving further that direction.

Popular governors helped buoy endangered Republicans in toss-up races, such as Ohio, Georgia, and Florida. The GOP’s victory in Ohio showed the limitations to Democrats' ability to counter Trump in Rust Belt states, even when putting forth an experienced and polished moderate candidate. However, GOP losses in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire showed that same MAGA mantle in the wrong state can weigh candidates down as well.