I. OVERVIEW

ELECTION OVERVIEW

In the modern era, midterm elections are a referendum on the party in power. The party that holds the White House has lost congressional seats in every election except in 1934, 1998, and 2002. On Tuesday, Nov. 8, all 435 House seats and 35 of the 100 Senate seats were on the ballot, as were the Governorships in 36 out of the 50 states. Most races across the country were called late Tuesday night, though some in the House and Senate will not be decided for days. At time of publication of this report, Republicans are on track to regain control of the House of Representatives for the first time since 2018, by very slim margins. The outcome of the House elections will not be known until all votes are counted and several toss-up races are called. The Senate is still undecided.

It is certain many issues resonated with the electorate and, with an election this close, the importance of any one issue can seem decisive in hindsight. Structural factors such as the first midterm of a new administration, rising inflation and interest rates, the broader direction of the economy, further polarization of the electorate, the weakening of confidence in democratic institutions, and former President Trump’s active involvement the last couple weeks and in candidate selection during the primary campaigns all played a central role this cycle. Key issues like the aftermath of Dobbs, rising crime rates, inflation, and public health concerns all played a significant role as well, particularly in the final months of the campaigns.

This election cycle clearly showed the divided nature of modern politics. In the midterm runup, lawmakers and independent or bipartisan commissions across the country redrew maps of congressional districts prompting partisan clashes and litigation with Democrats and Republicans arguing the legality of each side’s actions. One of the biggest subplots in this election cycle has been the number of candidates and voters openly expressing a lack of confidence in the nation’s democratic processes. Ahead of the midterm elections, 42% of Republican voters said they believe the contests will “definitely” or “probably” be free or fair, compared with 85% of Democratic voters who said the same. Officials say they are prepared for contested elections, recounts, and more than usual litigation.

Almost every election produces legal challenges, but most have historically come after Election Day. As a harbinger of a potentially contentious post-election period, the runup to the 2022

KEY TAKEAWAYS

 Republicans regained the majority in the House: o 209 Republicans o 191 Democrats o 35 yet to be decided  The majority in the Senate is still undecided: o 48 Democrats o 49 Republicans o 3 yet to be decided  Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) is likely to be the next Speaker of the House, but a thin majority is a complicating factor.  A decision by Speaker Nancy

Pelosi (D-CA) on her own future will determine upcoming Democratic leadership in the House.

midterm elections had more than 100 lawsuits and legal challenges filed before voting commenced on Nov. 8. Adding to this mix an estimated surplus of 42 million mail-in ballots nationwide – roughly a 40% increase over the 2018 midterms – presents the ingredients for election challenges and allegations of fraud or stolen elections.

The 118th Congress will be seated on Jan. 3, 2023. The departure of members ranging from freshmen to long-tenured members of Congress will result in new congressional leadership, new compositions of House and Senate committees, and correspondingly new legislative priorities – and perhaps even some new procedures. Beyond legislation, congressional oversight of the Biden Administration is likely to play a pivotal role among the new Republican membership’s priorities. In the short-term, the bigger question will be how the interpretation of Tuesday’s results and the pending change in control of the House and potentially the Senate will be viewed in the halls of Congress and how that will impact the environment surrounding the pending lame duck session.

In the aftermath of yesterday’s election, officials in the White House, Congress, and the respective party headquarters are scrutinizing results to determine what motivated voters. How they read the results will go a long way toward framing debate in Washington and across the nation. It will also set the stage early between the parties for the 2024 presidential campaign.

The ability of Congress to achieve a productive legislative effort in the 118th Congress, given the results of the elections, is now the principal focus of discussion. Although it might initially appear that the next two years of governing are structurally condemned to gridlock, there are prospects for constructive action. First, Republicans are now charged with passing bills, even if subject to a presidential veto. Second, slow movement in Washington is likely to continue to fuel the trend of increased power and action in the states. While the headlines may illuminate conflict over collaboration, Congress and the Administration will undoubtedly advance multiple agendas through the committees and regulatory bodies.

Finally, there is a prospect that deadlines, expiring provisions, and debates over the implementation of recently enacted policies may drive some constructive developments on issues such as energy, trade, taxes, health, and regular spending. This Congress may also take a fresh look at some immigration-related issues and pursue a return to relatively more regular order on appropriations bills. The central question remains, will there be some compromise, or will the upcoming session be dominated by gridlock? Only time will tell, but make no mistake, the 2024 Presidential election season is officially underway.