Cornerstone Government Affairs 2024 Election Analysis by Cornerstone Government Affairs

Updated November 15, 2024

DISCLAIMER

Cornerstone Government Affairs has assembled the following report to assist our clients in providing results from the 2024 election and understanding the impact on the nation’s politics and policies of those results. Precisely defining such an impact is challenging in the immediate hours after the election and will likely take many weeks to be understood.

We are aware that some information in this report may quickly be dated, and potential changes in currently unofficial races may negatively influence the validity of some of our forecasts. We offer this report to our clients and friends as our best effort to assist you in evaluating the challenges and opportunities you may face in the months and years ahead. This report will be updated periodically.

ELECTION OVERVIEW

Americans returned Donald Trump to the White House, as the red wave that experts thought would arrive in 2022 materialized two years later. The ﬁrst President to leave the White House and later be elected to a second term since Grover Cleveland, the President-elect built on his 2020 margins everywhere – more than 90% of counties shifted right – and mobilized record turnout en route to a sweep of the battleground states and a decisive victory in the Electoral College. He may also become the ﬁrst Republican to win the popular vote since George W. Bush in 2004.

Trump’s success across the nation boosted Republicans up and down the ticket. The GOP ﬂipped three Senate seats (West Virginia, Ohio, and Montana) and may pick up another in Pennsylvania, which would give them 53-47 majority in the 119th Congress. Republicans also retained their narrow majority in the House.

Much will be written about what contributed to this outcome in the days and weeks ahead, but the uniform shift towards President-elect Trump and away from Vice President Kamala Harris in small cities and rural areas (which saw a 4-point swing toward Rs), the suburbs (5.8), medium metros (5.1), and urban core counties (8.2) shows that Tuesday’s result was a widescale repudiation of the Biden Administration and a desire for change. Polls consistently showed a key data point that defined the race and helped Presidentelect Trump achieve victory: voters felt the country and their economic condition was better off under President-elect Trump than President Biden and Vice President Harris. This was a change election, and the Vice President struggled throughout her three months as a candidate to define what she would do differently than President Biden did the past four years. That key metric combined with other polling showing Americans continuing to feel the economic pinch of inflation and siding more with President-elect Trump on the issues of crime and immigration, likely were the difference makers in the race. Polling that asked the question, “Is the country on the right direction?” found more than 60% of Americans said no –roughly the same level as November 2016 and November 2020. Similarly, at -17.7 points President Biden’s net approval rating is about where one-term presidents George H.W. Bush and Jimmy Carter stood heading into their reelection bids. Vice President Harris never made a clean break with President Biden, and it may have cost her.

Overall, President-elect Trump clearly garnered more enthusiasm and support from his base than Vice President Harris did from hers and it seems to have carried the day. CBS’s exit polling found voters cared most about ﬁnding a candidate who “has the ability to lead” and “can bring needed change.” For voters who made their decision based on leadership, he won 65%-34%. For those who were voting for change, he won 73%-25%. President-elect Trump also fared very well among Americans who thought the economy was “not good” or “poor.” (According to Washington Post exit polling, 67% of voters fell into this category.) Those who deemed inﬂation a “severe hardship” broke for Trump 73%-25%.

And where President-elect Trump held his key constituencies and grew within some demographic groups, Vice President Harris only grew with college-educated women and lost ground with most of her important demographics, most notably Latino men. Where Latino men went for President Biden by 23 points, the group went for Trump by ten. Exit polling by NBC News found Vice President Harris winning Latinos just 55%-45% – a 20-point swing away from President Biden’s numbers. President-elect Trump flipped Florida’s Miami-Dade County, and the Vice President historically underperformed in southern Texas. Starr County, where Hilary Clinton won by 50 points in 2016, flipped to the GOP for the first time since 1896.

Vice President Harris sought to counter President-elect Trump’s rural gains with continued Democratic growth in the suburbs and metro areas, but her margins there either stagnated or failed to meet President Biden’s numbers. President-elect Trump gained ground in the Philadelphia, Detroit, Chicago, New York City, and Washington, DC suburbs, and while margins should tighten as more votes come in, the nation’s largest counties appeared to move toward the Republican party. Cook (Chicago) was 11 points more Republican than 2020. Each of the New York City counties shifted towards Republicans, with Kings, Queens, and the Bronx moving 12, 21, and 22 points away from Democrats.

With the election in the rearview mirror, we now turn our eyes to the 119th Congress. The following document details what we can expect moving forward and provides insight as to how the election will impact policymaking in the next Congress and throughout the second Trump Administration.

U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

O VERVIEW

Republicans narrowly retained control of the House of Representatives for another two years, which will usher in a new era of unified Republican control of the Executive and Legislative branches of government. Republicans exceeded conventional wisdom by holding several competitive seats and flipping multiple Democratic-held “toss up” seats. A House Republican majority, complimented by a Senate Republican majority and President-elect Donald Trump in the White House, will be very focused on utilizing the budget reconciliation process to address tax policy, among others, to start the 119th Congress. This effort will largely focus on extending provisions from and adding new provisions to the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which was arguably the most significant legislative accomplishment of the first Trump Administration. House Republicans will comb through laws enacted during the first two years of the Biden Administration and rules promulgated during the last six months for potential repeals and recissions through legislative and Congressional Review Act actions. Many of these targets will be found in the Inflation Reduction Act, particularly the bill’s energy and environmental legislative and regulatory components.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

 Republicans maintained control of the House, creating uniﬁed Republican control of Congress and the White House. The majority is a slim one, putting pressure on leadership to deliver votes in a tough environment

 Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA), and Whip Tom Emmer (R-MN) remain as the top three in the House GOP for the 119th Congress.

 Utilizing the budget reconciliation to enact President-elect Trump’s tax agenda, among other policies, will be the immediate legislative focus.

The House Republican majority will be slim, much like the 118th Congress, which can make the legislative environment a diﬃcult one and requiring congressional leadership to work closely with every member of the Republican Conference to ensure they are supportive of any major legislation coming to the House Floor.

REPUBLICAN LEADERSHIP (MAJORITY)

House Republicans held their internal leadership elections on Wednesday, Nov. 13. The next day, they approved a rules package for the 119th Congress that raises the threshold for a motion to vacate the speaker’s chair from one vote to nine. After ratifying the package, Republicans will transition to approving a new Steering Committee map and members as well as committee chairs and member assignments over the weeks to come

Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-LA) was adamant throughout the election cycle in his belief that Republicans would retain the majority. Now, after a unanimous vote of the Conference, he will next need to secure the requisite votes of the full House on Jan. 3, 2025.

Rep. Steve Scalise (R-LA) will remain Majority Leader and Rep. Tom Emmer (R-MN) will remain Majority Whip. Rep. Lisa McLain (R-MI) was elected to replace Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) as GOP Conference Chair as a result of Rep. Stefanik’s nomination to be the next U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations.

DEMOCRATIC LEADERSHIP (MINORITY)

With Republicans holding on to the majority, the top tier of the Democratic minority is expected to remain unchanged although there will be changes in several down-the-list leadership positions. House Democrats have scheduled their leadership elections for Nov. 19 and 20. The following members are expected to remain in their current positions:

 Rep. Hakeem Jeﬀries (D-NY) as Democratic Leader

 Rep. Katherine Clark (D-MA) as Democratic Whip

 Rep. Pete Aguilar (D-CA) as Democratic Caucus Chair

 Rep. Ted Lieu (D-CA) as Caucus Vice Chair

 Rep. Joe Neguse (D-CO) as Assistant Democratic Leader

At the time of publication, it is unknown if current Chair of the Democratic Policy and Communication Committee (DPCC), Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-MI), and the three co-chairs – Reps. Veronica Escobar (D-TX), Lauren Underwood (D-IL), and Lori Trahan (D-MA) will run for these positions again. Democrats have two leadership positions designated as Caucus Leadership Representatives, one for a Representative that has served five terms or fewer and the other for a freshman Representative with both being limited to one term. Rep. Sara Jacobs (D-CA) has served less than five terms and will be worth watching as she decides what, if any, position she will seek. Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX) currently serves as the freshman Representative for Caucus Leadership. It is unclear if she will run for another position in the 119th Congress. Another name to watch is Rep. Robert Garcia (D-CA), who may decide to run for the five terms or fewer slot or another leadership role depending on available opportunities

LEGISLATIVE/POLITICAL AGENDA

With Republicans in control of both chambers of Congress and the White House, they will use the budget reconciliation process to codify and extend President-elect Trump’s tax agenda and potentially implement other policies, as well. The day after the election, Majority Leader Scalise sent a Dear Colleague outlining House Republicans’ First 100-Day Agenda. The agenda covered policies aimed at growing the economy, lowering tax rates, and securing the border. Other Republican policy priorities Republicans will focus on the areas of crime, domestic energy production, inflation, and deregulation, all part of a larger effort to draw a contrast with congressional Democrats. There will also be a significant effort from national security-focused

Republicans on both sides of the Capitol to increase topline spending for the Department of Defense. There will be a signiﬁcant eﬀort to move quickly and concurrently on most if not all of these priorities, which will require swift action from the newly populated committees in the 119th Congress.

NOTAB LE RETIREMENTS , DEFEATS , AND WINS – REPUBLICANS

There were 30 Republican retirements, deaths, and early departures during the 118th Congress. Eight of these retirements sought other oﬃces. Among Republican retirements and resignations are:

 Rep. Drew Ferguson (R-GA), former Chief Deputy Whip

 Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-WI), Chair of the Select Committee on Competition with China

 Rep. Kay Granger (R-TX), Chair of the Committee on Appropriations for most of the 118th Congress

 Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), vacated Speaker of the House

 Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-NC), Chair of the Committee on Financial Services and former Chief Deputy Whip

 Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-WA), Chair of the Committee on Energy and Commerce and former GOP Conference Chair

Two Republican members, Reps. Bob Good (R-VA) and Jerry Carl (R-AL), were defeated in their primaries. Rep. Carl was defeated by Rep. Barry Moore (R-AL) after redistricting put the two members in the same district. Reps. Marc Molinaro (R-NY), Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-OR), Mike Garcia (R-CA), and Brandon Williams (R-NY), were defeated by Democratic challengers in their general elections. The incoming freshman members of the Republican Conference who ﬂipped vacant or redistricted seats from Democratic to Republican are Reps.-elect Tom Barrett (R-MI), Addison McDowell (R-NC), Brad Knott (R-NC), and Tim Moore (R-NC). Reps.-elect Rob Bresnahan (R-PA), Ryan Mackenzie (R-PA), and Gabe Evans (R-CO) unseated Reps. Matt Cartwright (D-PA), Susan Wild (D-PA), and Yadira Caraveo (D-CO), respectively.

NOTAB LE RETIREMENTS , DEFEATS , AND WINS – DEMOCRATS

There were 31 Democratic retirements, deaths, and resignations during the 118th Congress. Eleven of these 31 retirements ran for other oﬃces. Among Democratic retirements and resignations are:

 Rep. Earl Blumenauer (D-OR), ranking member of the Committee on Ways and Means Subcommittee on Trade

 Rep. Anna Eshoo (D-CA), ranking member of the Committee on Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Health

 Rep. Dan Kildee (D-MI), Co-Chair of the Democratic Steering Committee

 Rep. Derek Kilmer (D-WA), former Chair of the New Democrat Coalition

 Rep. Annie Kuster (D-NH), outgoing Chair of the New Democrat Coalition

 Rep. Barbara Lee (D-CA), Co-Chair of the Democratic Steering Committee

Two Democrats were defeated in their primary elections: Reps. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) and Cori Bush (DMO). Reps. Matt Cartwright (D-PA), current Ranking Member of the Committee on Appropriations Subcommittee on Commerce, Justice, and Science and Related Agencies; Susan Wild (D-PA), current Ranking member of the Committee on Ethics; and Yadira Caraveo (D-CO) were defeated by Republican challengers in their general elections. The incoming freshman members of the Democratic Caucus who ﬂipped seats from Republican to Democratic are Reps.-elect Shomari Figures (D-AL), Josh Riley (D-NY), Laura Gillen (D-NY), Josh Mannion (D-NY), Janelle Bynum (D-OR), and George Whitesides (D-CA) Another notable win was Rep.-elect Sarah McBride (D-DE), who will be the ﬁrst openly transgender member of Congress.

U.S. S E NATE

OVERVIEW

Republicans have successfully gained control of the Senate by holding all of their seats and flipping Democratic-held seats in West Virginia, Ohio, and Montana. While the race in Pennsylvania has been called for Republican Dave McCormick, Sen. Bob Casey has not yet conceded and a formal recount has begun. Democrats retained key seats in Michigan, Nevada, Arizona, and Wisconsin, despite President-elect Trump carrying each of these states. Sen. Angus King (I-ME) beat out three rivals and will continue to caucus with the Democrats. Predictably, Indiana and Utah’s Senate seats remained in Republican hands, while California, Delaware, New Jersey, and Maryland remained in Democratic hands after the retirement of Senators in those states. Among other closely watched races, the incumbents prevailed in Florida, Minnesota, and Texas.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

 The Senate is currently split 53 to 44 GOP/DEM with Senator Angus King (IND-ME) caucusing with the Democrats.

 Republicans ﬂipped seats in MT, OH, and WV.

 Republicans have elected Sen. John Thune (R-SD) to serve as the next Majority Leader.

With President-elect Donald Trump headed back to the White House, Republican control of the Senate will be critical as they work together to confirm the President’s cabinet and judicial appointments, while also working to enact the President’s legislative agenda. Additionally, with unified Republican control of the executive and legislative branches, budget reconciliation will immediately become the top legislative vehicle for President-elect Trump’s tax and additional priorities. Finally, the Republicans will also usher in new committee ratios reflective of the new majority’s margins, giving the new leadership team the tools it needs to rapidly move the confirmation process and develop key legislative priorities in the first 100 days.

REPUBLICAN LEADERSHIP (MAJORITY)

Senate Republican leadership will see significant changes with Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), the longest serving Senate leader, stepping down after 17 years at the helm. On Wednesday, Nov. 13, the current Senate Republican Whip John Thune (R-SD) beat out former Whip, Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), and Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) to succeed Sen. McConnell as the next Republican leader. Sen. Scott had the backing from many influencers in the President-elect's orbit, but the President-elect remained neutral and Sen. Scott was eliminated after the first round of voting.

Republican control of the Senate also means that Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) will return as President Pro Tempore, a position he previously held from 2019 to 2021. Current Senate Republican Conference Chair John Barrasso (R-WY) ran unopposed to become the next Assistant Majority Leader and Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) defeated Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) to replace Sen. Barrasso as the next Conference Chair. Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV) replaces Sen. Ernst as the Republican Policy Committee Chair while Sen. James Lankford (R-OK) takes Sen. Capito’s former role as Republican Conference Vice Chair. National Republican Senatorial Committee Steve Daines (R-MT) will be succeeded by Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC).

DEMOCRATIC LEADERSHIP (MINORITY)

Senate Democrats have not yet announced when their leadership elections will be, but their 12-person leadership team will remain largely intact in the next Congress. Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) is expected to continue in his role after successfully navigating key legislative accomplishments through a challenging and divided Congress and overseeing a record number of conﬁrmations of President Joe Biden’s judicial and executive nominations. Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL), having served as Democratic Whip for the past two decades, has two years remaining in his current Senate term and is likely to continue in the number two post.

With the retirements of Sens. Stabenow and Joe Manchin (I-WV), there will be two open slots for the Democratic Policy and Communications Committee (DPCC) Chair and Vice Chair posts. While it is possible that the current slate of leadership members moves up the ranks sequentially to ﬁll the vacancies, putting Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) in line to take on the number three position as DPCC Chair, additional shuﬄing might result if other members put their names in the mix. Caucus discussions on this topic and other organizing items for the 119th Congress will take place over the coming month with leadership elections occurring sometime in December.

REPUB LICAN LEGISLATIVE/POLITICAL AGENDA

With Republicans taking the majority in the Senate and President-elect Trump entering the White House, the primary focus will be on confirming President-elect Trump’s Cabinet and judicial nominees. Additionally, expect the Republican Senate and House majorities to spend the first 100 days of the new Congress working on the following priorities:

 Extension, modiﬁcation, and enhancement of the expiring Tax Cut and Jobs Act of 2017, a signature legislative achievement of the ﬁrst Trump Administration

 Strengthened border security and enforcement of current law

 Construction of the border wall

 Increased defense spending and attempt to cut non-defense discretionary spending

 Increased domestic energy production and export of American energy products

 Reauthorization of the Farm Bill

DEMOCRATIC LEGISLATIVE/POLITICAL AGENDA

With President-elect Trump returning to the White House in January, Senate Democrats will leverage the traditional power of the Senate minority to impede key policy goals of the Republican majority and the new Administration, including possible Republican attempts to roll back the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), climate measures, health and labor protections, and certain changes to the tax code. Democrats will seek to use committee and Senate procedure to vet, slow, and block President-elect Trump’s nominees, as well as to create an environment of oversight at federal agencies, particularly with respect to spending and President-elect Trump’s political apparatus. Senate Democrats will seek to leverage with their Republican colleagues the large amounts of funding distributed to red and purple states via President Biden’s hallmark legislation – the IRA and the CHIPS and Science Act – in an attempt to protect ongoing implementation of those laws.

The new Congress brings debate around numerous high profile legislative vehicles, particularly in 2025. With Republicans maintaining control of the House of Representatives, budget reconciliation is likely to consume a substantial portion of the legislative focus next year and Democrats will litigate every detail of the Republican bill through the committee and “Byrd bath” process with the Parliamentarians. However, appropriations measures other legislative priorities that cannot move through reconciliation will make Senate Democratic moderates a key block for any legislative efforts requiring bipartisan support and the requisite 60 votes for passage. Areas for potential bipartisan focus include artificial intelligence, national security priorities, permitting reform, tax policy, and competition with China.

N OTABLE DEFEATS, RETIREMENTS, AND NEW ADDITIONS

Democrats faced an extremely challenging political map this cycle, defending 23 seats to the Republicans’ 11 Republicans have thus flipped three Democratic seats, with one outcome pending in Pennsylvania, bringing their new majority to either 52 or 53 seats.

While media attention was given to the GOP seats held by Sens. Ted Cruz (R-TX), Deb Fischer (R-NE), and Rick Scott (R-FL), every in cycle Republican incumbent was comfortably reelected. The GOP only faced two retirements – Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT) and Sen. Mike Braun (R-IN) – both of whom represented reliably safe states and are being replaced by current House members Rep. John Curtis (R-UT) and Rep. Jim Banks (R-IN), respectively. As predicted following Sen. Manchin's retirement announcement, the West Virginia seat easily flipped to Republican control with Gov. Jim Justice's victory over Democrat Glenn Elliot. Republicans also took wins against long-serving Democratic incumbents in Ohio, where Bernie Moreno beat incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) by four points in the most expensive Senate race of all time and in Montana, where Tim Sheehy ousted current Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) by eight points. The other called gain is in in Pennsylvania where Dave McCormick was declared the winner over Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA); however, Sen. Casey has not conceded and the ﬁnal tally was within 0.5%, the threshold to automatically trigger a recount in the Keystone State.

Democrats succeeded in holding on to open seats in California, Delaware, and Maryland, where Angela Alsobrooks defeated former Gov. Larry Hogan in a high-profile race to replace retiring Sen. Ben Cardin (DMD). Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) and Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) also narrowly held on to their seats in presidential swing states won by President-elect Trump. Sen.-elect Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) won a close race against Kari Lake to replace Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) in another swing state won by the President-elect.

GUBERNATORIAL

OVERVIEW

In a year of high tension and turnout, the 11 gubernatorial races of 2024 proved to be predictable and uneventful as no state changed partisan control of its executive branch. Thus, the current balance of 27 Republican governors to 23 Democratic governors will be maintained until the two races of 2025. A total of 36 gubernatorial races will be held in 2026, of which 18 are potentially defended by incumbents. Even with stability at the top of the state capitals, there are important unanswered questions from election night: How will the results of the federal races impact policy at the state level? Will the electoral processes be subjected to policy changes? How will the resident of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue affect the 16 open governorships?

KEY TAKEAWAYS

 No ﬂips among the 11 states in play.

 Republicans continue their 14year streak of holding the majority of governorships.

 2024 gubernatorial races had predictable outcomes with no impact on the map, but 2026 could prove much diﬀerent.

The 11 gubernatorial races of 2024 had three incumbent governors seeking and winning reelection (Montana, Vermont, and Utah). Eight races were open seat races due to term limits or retirements (Delaware, Indiana, Missouri, New Hampshire, North Carolina, North Dakota, Washington, and West Virginia). In January, Republicans focused their efforts in two states: holding New Hampshire and flipping North Carolina. While they held New Hampshire by a narrow margin, they collapsed and missed a prime pickup opportunity in North Carolina, after the Republican nominee Mark Robinson’s past proved to be too much for North Carolinians. Every other race in 2024 ended as expected.

GUBERNATORIAL RACES

GENERAL SUMMATION

While there will be two open races in 2025 due to term-limited governors vacating office (New Jersey and Virginia), Republican governors will soon turn their attention to 2026, when they will be faced with potentially defending six of their own governors and playing offense against 12 Democratic governors. All this will be done in light of the uncertainty of how President-elect Donald Trump and decisions made by his second Administration will have an impact not only these general elections, but also the primaries preceding them.

North Carolina: Attorney General Josh Stein will follow in the footsteps of the successful two-term governorship of Democratic Governor Roy Cooper, who was term limited as governor but is tipped to remain active in politics. The race for North Carolina began as a tight contest with many resources dedicated to the efforts of both parties. Alas, salacious late race stories from Republican nominee Mark Robinson’s past quickly skewed the polls in favor of Stein, who walked away with a 14.6-point win despite the turmoil caused by Hurricane Helene in the mountainous west of the state. As Attorney General, Gov.-elect Stein worked on several bipartisan projects, including fighting the opioid epidemic, solving the rape kit backlog, and protecting children from assault. His campaign pledged to cut costs for the middle class and invest in an education and opportunity economy.

Washington: Democrats have a strong record of gubernatorial success in Washington, with former member of the U.S. House of Representatives Jay Inslee having held the office since the 2012 cycle. Democratic Attorney General Bob Ferguson ran a campaign predicated on challenging special interests and protecting reproductive rights and worker’s rights at a time when home-state company, Boeing, was suffering from a debilitating business climate on multiple fronts. Gov.-elect Ferguson has pledged to take on the State’s housing shortage, as well as other progressive issues while in office. Gov.-elect Ferguson’s opponent was former Congressman Dave Reichert, who was painted as too conservative in a state where generic Democrats remain marginally favored.

Delaware: In a race that was never a real contest, New Castle County Executive Matt Meyer will succeed the multiterm incumbent, Gov. John Carney (D). Gov.-elect Meyer is a former teacher and small business owner who ran his campaign on pragmatic solutions in the same frame as a county executive would: public education, cost of living, and protection of fundamental rights.

New Hampshire: In July, Gov. Chris Sununu (R) announced he would not seek reelection for a fifth two-year term, a setback for Republicans hopeful to avoid a contested primary, and a boost to Democrats hungry for another pickup on a map with few opportunities. Former U.S. Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) won the primary with 63% of the vote and narrowly won the general election defeating Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig by a vote of 53.4%. Gov.-elect Ayotte will immediately begin the difficult task of separating herself from former President Trump, who lost the state by 3%, without alienating the base and hoping to avoid a primary in two years.

Indiana: With Gov. Eric Holcomb (R) term limited and unable to seek reelection, U.S. Sen. Mike Braun (R) won a heated and contested primary in May with just under 40% of the vote to secure the nomination and cruised to victory on election night to become Indiana’s 52nd Governor. At the beginning of the campaign cycle, Democrats thought they might have a shot to flip the seat after recruiting former state school superintendent and registered Republican Jennifer McCormick as their nominee. Gov.-elect Braun’s fundraising advantage worked against McCormick and when she moved to the left in part an attempt to close that gap it pushed away many of the state’s center right voters.

LAME DUCK

OVERVIEW

The House of Representatives and the Senate reconvened on Tuesday, Nov. 12, and immediately began to address remaining legislative priorities for the year while also organizing themselves in preparation for the next Congress. Leadership elections and committee reshuﬄing took place as newly elected freshmen members are coming to the Hill for orientation meetings and retiring members are casting their ﬁnal votes in Congress. Republicans in both Chambers almost immediately held their leadership elections. House Democrats are scheduled to hold their leadership elections on Nov. 19 and 20. Senate Democrats have not yet announced when their leadership elections will be but are expected to be held in December.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

 Funding the government and the NDAA are the “must pass” items for lame duck.

 Other possible bills for an endof-year package include an emergency disaster supplemental and packages regarding AI, China competition, health care, permitting reforms, and more.

Legislatively, the lame duck session will be consumed by a few key “must pass” items including fiscal year 2025 appropriations, the annual defense authorization bill (NDAA), and an emergency disaster supplemental. Leaders in both chambers are also eyeing additional legislative initiatives related to artificial intelligence (AI), competition with China, health care, permitting reform, and others for possible inclusion in any end-of-year packages. And, as is always the case at the end of a Congress, an array of tertiary and legacy items may be attached to moving vehicles as members seek to move their priority bills on the “last train out of the station.” The size and scope of any final legislative package will be heavily influenced by the political dynamics heading into the next Congress. With the potential for a GOP trifecta looking increasingly possible, Republicans may have little appetite to negotiate on any Democratic priorities. Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) is likely to use the waning days of Senate Democrats majority to confirm as many judicial nominations as possible before control of the chamber and the White House changes hands.

APPROPRIATIONS

A primary focus of the lame duck session will be how and whether to pass the 12 fiscal year 2025 appropriations bills before the current continuing resolution expires on Dec. 20. While both the House and Senate Appropriations Committees made good progress in reporting subcommittee bills out of full Committee, passing them through the respective chambers proved exceedingly difficult. The House passed only five bills before FY25 began on Oct. 1, with minimal Democratic support, and the Senate passed none – forcing Congress to pass a stop-gap funding measure to keep the government open until after the elections. The lame duck session will be the last opportunity to finish this critical work before a new Congress and President assume office. The task and process ahead will not be easy. Though passage of the Fiscal Responsibility Act in 2023 was meant to provide some semblance of certainty over budgetary matters for the next two fiscal years, there are deep disagreements between the House and Senate about whether to adhere to those underlying funding guidelines. As a result, total spending allocations for the House bills are roughly $100 billion less than those of the bipartisan Senate bills. No serious negotiating can begin until the two chambers agree on a top-line amount.

Further complicating the standoﬀ, several conservative House Republicans aligned with the Freedom Caucus are working to convince House Leadership to drop eﬀorts to wrap up the annual bills during the lame duck session, opting instead to punt consideration into the new year where President-elect Trump

and a Republican majority in the Senate will have a stronger hand in spending negotiations. Aversions to an “omnibus” bill (combining all 12 appropriations bills into one package) are also a major concern, and Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-LA) has already indicated his opposition to that approach. While that might be resolved by packaging the individual bills into smaller bundles, the fact remains that a coterie of Republican members will not be easily convinced to address the situation and negotiate with an outgoing President looking to put the last stamp of approval on potential legacy items and initiatives of his Administration. Most appropriators, meanwhile, support completing the bills during the lame duck regardless of who wins the election. Any signals from the Trump transition team in this regard will further drive the discussion.

In addition to the annual appropriations bills, there are several supplemental or emergency spending items related to disaster assistance that must be addressed. The record devastation and loss of life resulting from Hurricanes Helene and Milton are pushing the limits of federal disaster recovery teams and agencies, with both the Small Business Administration and the Federal Emergency Management Agency in dire need of additional funds. Some early estimates indicate as much as $100 billion in damage occurred from the two storms. Regardless of the divisions between the House and Senate on overall spending matters, most signs point to the Congress responding to the situation quickly, with passage of an emergency supplemental spending bill highly likely in the lame duck session.

DEFENSE AUTHORIZATION (NDAA)

The annual defense authorization bill is expected to advance in both chambers during the lame duck session with leaders of the authorizing committees still working to reconcile differences between the House and Senate versions and address key outstanding issues. The House bill passed on a largely party-line vote of 217-199 while the Senate’s version passed the Armed Services Committee (SASC) with an overwhelming bipartisan vote of 22-3, though was not considered by the full Senate on the floor. SASC Chair Jack Reed (DRI) and Ranking Member Roger Wicker (R-MS) filed a substantial managers package in the Senate during the September work period, to further bolster the Senate’s position in conference discussions.

The House and Senate Armed Services Committees plan to complete reconciling differences between before the Thanksgiving recess but could take until the first week of December. HASC and SASC staff directors have resolved many of the differences between the House and Senate bills and continue to work with committees of jurisdiction on language outside the jurisdiction of the Armed Services Committees. One of the remaining unresolved issues includes topline numbers, which have not been decided by the House and Senate Committees on Appropriations. To move forward and pass the NDAA before the end of the calendar year, House and Senate Committees on Armed Services Chairs and Ranking Members will likely include an authorization to increase defense spending to between $21 billion to $25 billion based on current appropriations negotiations. The NDAA is expected to pass by mid-December, or, at the latest, by the end of the calendar year. Given the must-pass nature of the NDAA, the final version of the FY25 NDAA is expected to include additional legislation as decided by House and Senate leadership. The additional legislation is expected to include the Intel Reauthorization Act, the Coast Guard Reauthorization Act, and the Maritime Administration Reauthorization Act as well as legislation on artificial intelligence and competition with China.

CHINA COMPETITION

There is bipartisan, bicameral interest in advancing a China competition package in the lame duck. The staffs for Speaker Johnson and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) have been working behind the scenes on what a potential China-specific package could look like. The BIOSECURE Act and the ROUTERS Act are both bills that have broad bipartisan support and could be easily added to the package; the former focuses on limiting access to sensitive biotech information, while the later focuses on potential vulnerabilities in consumer internet infrastructure. One contentious and complicating factor for the Speaker has been the debate around outbound investment, which refers to the process of domestic companies or entities investing in assets, businesses, or projects outside their home country. While Committee on Financial Services Chair Patrick McHenry (R-NC) would like to see a more targeted, company-specific approach to limiting outbound investment in China, Chair Michael McCaul of the House Foreign Affairs Committee and Republican Members of the China Select Committee prefer a broader, industry wide approach like the one adopted by the Senate in S. 2678, the Outbound Investment Transparency Act. The Senate bill was included in the Senate version of the NDAA. The Speaker has made it clear publicly that resolving the outbound investment debate is a top priority for him in the lame duck.

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

Another top contender for legislative advancement in the lame duck is a package of bills regarding AI. This is a top priority for Majority Leader Schumer, who spent much of this session of Congress pushing for action and instructing committees to address various issues related to AI within their jurisdictions. Last year, he and Sens. Mike Rounds (R-SD), Martin Heinrich (D-NM), and Todd Young (R-IN) led an eﬀort to hold a series of educational sessions, dubbed Insight Forums, with leading experts and industry stakeholders to better inform members of the key issues and considerations related to development of any AI regulatory scheme. The group released their Bipartisan Roadmap for AI Policy in the U.S. in May of this year. The House similarly set up an AI Task Force, led by Reps. Jay Obernolte (R-CA) and Ted Lieu (D-CA), with the goal of exploring potential AI policies that would foster innovation while also protecting consumers and guarding against security threats. The expectation is that any potential package will be relatively modest in size and comprised of bipartisan bills that have either passed out of committee or have strong support in both chambers. Overall, the legislative activity reﬂects a continued and growing recognition from policymakers of the need for ethical oversight, safety measures, and innovative research in the rapidly evolving AI landscape.

HEALTH

The March 2024 “minibus” (Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2024) that funded federal agencies for the remainder of fiscal year 2024 also set the stage for health policy legislative activity following the November elections. The “minibus” established a deadline by which Congress must act to continue the funding authorizations for a slate of expiring health programs and maintain current policy for a series of Medicare and Medicaid initiatives and key COVID-19 policy waivers – all with expirations set for Dec. 31, 2024. The outcome of the presidential and congressional races in November will largely determine the scope of legislative activity following the elections. For health priorities, the key factors that will drive legislative action are the Congressional Budget Office’s estimate of a policy’s fiscal impact on the federal budget and the number of proposals available that will save money, and therefore, offset the cost of additional spending.

During the lame duck period, Congress will seek to extend funding for so-called health “extenders,” such as community health centers, the National Health Service Corps, the Special Diabetes Programs, and Pandemic

and All-Hazards Preparedness Act provisions, among other programs and initiatives. Key Medicare priorities will include mitigating the impending cut to Medicare Physician Fee Schedule payments and extending the Medicare Dependent Hospital program, enhanced low-volume adjustment, and special outreach and assistance programs for low-income Medicare beneﬁciaries.

For Medicaid, the chief action item for lawmakers is to act once again to prevent the scheduled cut to Medicaid disproportionate share hospital funding. Congress is poised to further extend the telehealth policy waivers that were first established during the COVID-19 public health emergency. Each of these policies would involve additional Medicare and Medicaid spending and would need to be paid for. A small number of offsets are available for consideration, including pharmacy benefit manager reforms, expansion of siteneutral payment policy to lower Medicare reimbursements to hospital outpatient departments, and extending the length of the 2% Medicare sequester cut.

House and Senate leaders could consider additional health priorities for inclusion in a final year-end legislative package. Retiring members and other groups of lawmakers are pushing for legislative action on a long list of high-profile policies, including an extension of the enhanced premium tax credits to lower the cost of Affordable Care Act Marketplace plans; expanding access to behavioral health care; addressing health workforce shortages and safety for caregivers; restricting prior authorizations for Medicare Advantage plans; Medicare physician payment reforms; and changes to the 340B Drug Pricing Program.

AGRICULTURE

As neither the House nor the Senate were able to pass a Farm Bill this year, all signs point to Congress approving a one-year extension before the end of the calendar year. Further, there has been growing interest in including temporary economic and weather-related disaster assistance in an end-of-year package. While leaders of the two Agriculture Committees are hopeful these conversations around additional support for producers will not impact Farm Bill discussions, they may lessen the pressure to complete a bill during the lame duck session.

ENERGY AND PERMITTING REFORM

As the 118th Congress comes to a close, energy policy remains top of mind. In addition to the fate of full year funding for the Departments of Energy and Interior, as well as the fate of the Senate permitting reform bill, the next two months will be the final push for the Biden Administration to deploy clean energy and manufacturing funds vis a vis the Inflation Reduction Act is a priority. The fate of the Energy Permitting Reform Act of 2024 (PRA), a committee-passed bipartisan measure led by outgoing Energy & Natural Resources Committee Chair Joe Manchin (I-WV) and current Ranking Member John Barrasso (R-WY), remains in the hands of Senate and House leadership as the post-election dust settles. The final passage of PRA hinges on whether the bill can be attached to a large must-pass vehicle, such as the end-of-year omnibus, without upsetting the larger political balance. Democrats may have increased interest in moving the bill as it guarantees transmission reforms that are less likely to pass in a Republican-controlled Senate and Trump White House. Republicans may seek to punt the debate to 2025 or beyond in an effort to enact pursue additional permitting concessions for oil and gas production, pipeline, liquid natural gas exports, and judicial reforms.

TAX

There continues to be bipartisan interest among Senate members in revisiting some version of the SmithWyden tax package that failed on the floor in July in lame duck, which could open a modest discussion on tax ultimately implicating both Smith-Wyden and potentially other small items. In addition, a handful of policies that expire at the end of December 2024 are garnering a small but increasing volume of attention from members and stakeholders looking to advocate for one-year extensions to bring those policies in line with the broader 2025 tax debate if possible. The path to any tax activity in lame duck is narrow and limited, but if Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID) and Republicans on the Committee on Finance are able to resolve or negotiate over their prior objections, Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR) and his team remain interested and open to moving the package if there is an opportunity.

Tax is likely not a key focus for most House leaders heading into the lame duck, with many in that body holding a view that the House did its job with a 357-vote passage in the Spring. However, given the strong bipartisan support earlier this year, the House would likely remain receptive to a package if it came back over from the Senate in an appropriate form. In that event, it would help set the table for and lead into the upcoming 2025 tax debate.

GENER AL SUMMATION

Congress will reconvene on Nov. 12 to tackle end-of-year legislative priorities and prepare for the next session, with Republicans scheduled to hold leadership elections on Nov. 13. The lame duck session will prioritize essential bills like FY25 appropriations, the NDAA, and emergency disaster funding, while potentially incorporating additional legislation on AI, China competition, and health care. With political dynamics poised to shift, Republicans may be less willing to compromise, especially on Democratic goals, while Democrats aim to confirm judicial nominees before potentially losing the Senate majority. Appropriators face challenging negotiations to reconcile House and Senate spending levels, while also addressing emergency disaster aid for recent hurricanes. Finally, Congress is expected to extend health programs, pass the NDAA, and likely approve a one-year Farm Bill extension due to the failure to pass a new Farm Bill this year.

RECONCILIATION

Following the apparent Republican sweep in the 2024 federal elections, the incoming House and Senate majorities are likely to pursue a reconciliation process focused on tax and other fiscal legislation in short order. The first “100 Days” agenda includes a goal of using reconciliation to carry an extension and modification of the expiring Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA) and certain other policies. The process will likely extend well beyond the stated timeframe given the instructions and broad scope resulting in a substantial number of committees of jurisdiction, much like the “Build Back Better” effort attempted by Democrats in 2022. Additional topics may include items like spending reductions, energy policy (both tax and regulatory), and other general deregulatory policies to the extent they fit into the reconciliation procedural framework.

Budget reconciliation has become a hallmark of unified government in the 21st Century, enabling party-line passage of significant fiscal legislation including the Inflation Reduction Act, the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021, the TCJA in 2017, a portion of the Affordable Care Act, and the Bush Tax Cuts in 2001 and 2004.

The primary feature of the reconciliation process is its fast-track procedure in the Senate, enabling passage of qualifying legislation with a simple majority vote and no option to ﬁlibuster. However, the overall process requires several proactive and largely ceremonial steps from both bodies of Congress. First, each body must pass a budget resolution (which the President does not need to sign) providing a framework for spending for the ﬁscal year ending that September 30 and containing a set of provisions called reconciliation instructions.

With respect to timing, the majority party in the Senate may begin this process as soon as the Senate’s new session begins, even prior to a new president’s inauguration. For example, in 2017 Senate Republicans held a vote on the motion to proceed to S. Con. Res. 3, the budget resolution containing instructions for health care reform, on Jan. 12, nine days after the 115th Congress convened.

Instructions constitute a few lines of legislative text that create the space for committees of jurisdiction to act within reconciliation during that ﬁscal year only. The committees are “reconciling” new ﬁscal policies relative to the framework of that year’s budget.

None of the recent historical instructions contain any limitations on scope of subject matter in the text and differ only insofar as, e.g., the fiscal year 2010 and 2017 instructions call for net deficit reduction, while the FY18 instructions actually call for the committees to increase rather than reduce the deficit. The FY10 instructions contain a reference to “Health Care Reform” but only in the House subsection titles and not the legislative text. Contrary to some misconceptions, reconciliation is not required to reduce deficits within the ten-year budget window, although it has often traditionally been used to do so.

The windows presented by any instructions last only as long as the underlying budget resolution. As a result, each Congress generally gets two bites at the apple – for example, the 119th Congress will have one opportunity for reconciliation in FY25, ending Sept. 20, 2025, and a separate opportunity in FY26, ending Sept. 30, 2026. A third, hypothetical opportunity exists for any given Congress in the brief window between Sept. 30 and Dec. 31 of its ﬁnal year, but no prior Congress has attempted that diﬃcult procedural feat.

Once passage of a budget resolution with instructions has occurred, the next step of the process is for the committees of jurisdiction named in the instructions to lead the way in developing and drafting the

substantive legislation complying with the instructions. Traditionally, the House committees will then hold markups in the unusual form of a Committee Print (rather than the conventional House or Senate Resolution), which is then reported to the House Budget Committee. The House Budget Committee typically then holds a largely theatrical markup to assemble those component Prints, which it cannot amend, and report the full package to the floor. The package can then be tweaked again, if necessary, by the Rules Committee in the House or by amendment in the Senate (and may or may not also be marked up by the Senate committees of jurisdiction). If the package includes revenue modifications as is often the case, either the House must vote first or the Senate must use a House-originated revenue “shell” bill to meet the blueslip procedural and constitutional obligations involved.

One important caveat, especially in the near term, is that formal committee action described above is not always adhered to, especially in the Senate. In several recent cases, notably on health care reconciliation packages, the instructed Senate committees have skipped a formal markup and moved directly to floor consideration. In any case, separate and apart from appropriate committee and House floor action, the Senate will hold a floor vote on the package (perhaps the same or perhaps very different from the House), beginning the critical and central stages of the process. At this point, the limitations on reconciliation legislation put in place by the Budget Act and its amendments finally enter the picture. Procedurally, any senator may raise one of two points of order related to non-compliance, reflecting the two ways a package can violate reconciliation procedures:

 First, that a speciﬁc provision or set of provisions within the package is noncompliant by virtue of the Byrd rule (more on this below);

 Second, that the package as a whole is “fatally” noncompliant, either by violating core tenants of the process described above or as a result of the Byrd rule.

Following such a point of order, the Senate parliamentarian makes a formal ruling which the chair (the Senate’s presiding oﬃcer) either sustains or rejects. A senator may move to override the ruling of the chair on a 50-vote basis – therefore, 50 Senators may under certain circumstances keep a provision the parliamentarian rules noncompliant or strike a provision the parliamentarian rules compliant.

The basis of most of these points of order is the famous “Byrd rule” named for former West Virginia Sen. Robert Byrd, who drafted it to replace the (previously even more nebulous standard) of material deemed “extraneous” to the budget and not appropriate for reconciliation. The Byrd rule is a proxy for what constitutes an extraneous provision, but it is speciﬁcally enshrined in statutory law as an amendment to the Budget Act and can be found within 2 U.S.C. 644(b)(1).

Some of these statutory standards are more tangible than others. For example, per subparagraph (F) and 2 U.S.C. § 641(g), modifying Social Security in any way is a very clear criteria for noncompliance. Subparagraphs (B) and (A) are also fairly straightforward, with (B) knocking out provisions that violate committee jurisdictional rules and (A) knocking out provisions that have no revenue or outlay (spending) eﬀects; purely regulatory policy such as Dodd-Frank modiﬁcations or a minimum wage hike are generally acknowledged to fail under this standard.

Subparagraph (E) is worth mentioning specifically. That rule is intended to knock out provisions that increase the net deficit after the period covered by the budget resolution, today typically a 10-year budget window and generally relying on judgments made by congressional scorekeepers at the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT). This rule is the root cause of the temporary nature of tax reductions of 2001, 2003, and 2017, which can reduce revenue within the 10-year window

but must sunset before that window ends or risk running afoul of subparagraph (E). Similarly, signiﬁcant spending legislation cannot have an eﬀect beyond the 10-year window.

Many modern Byrd objections rest on subparagraph (D) and its “merely incidental” language. Assuming a provision results in revenues or outlays, is that revenue incidental or integral to the provision – in other words, direct or indirect? Unfortunately, there is very little guidance in making this assessment unless a speciﬁc precedent exists regarding a substantially similar provision having been ruled on in the past, and even then, no result is guaranteed. The speciﬁc result in any given case will rest in large part on the arguments made by committee counsels and the Senate parliamentarian’s occasionally unpredictable inclinations. A key item to watch in any 2025 reconciliation debate is whether the precedents around what might qualify as merely incidental could be adjusted, either through new interpretations of the parliamentarian, votes to overrule the parliamentarian, or otherwise.

Prior to the Senate floor vote, counsels from the Committee on the Budget and the committees of jurisdiction for the underlying policy will typically take a near-final package to the Senate parliamentarian to discuss close calls that might be ruled merely incidental – a process that staffers often refer to as the “Byrd bath.” The arguments made in these opaque meetings form the basis of the parliamentarian’s rulings on close calls, although the parliamentarian’s final ruling is the one made on the Senate floor based on the specific wording of the objection and the language under consideration.

Distinct from the noncompliance of a particular provision described above, the package as a whole may be objected to on the basis of “fatal” noncompliance, if it has failed to comply with the elaborate process described above involving instructions, committee markups, and correct sequencing. “Fatal” noncompliance is also believed by staff to occur if enough individual extraneous items appear in the package and “overweigh” that package relative to non-extraneous matters. This belief is pervasive, although it seems in some ways contrary to the text of § 644(e), which calls for specifically offending provisions to be stricken on an individual basis.

Finally, once the package has passed both bodies, if any differences persist a conference may formally occur and produce a conference report that constitutes the final, identical version of the legislation voted on in the Senate. All the rules and points of order for the first round of Senate passage continue to exist, except that if a provision is struck for noncompliance at this stage, there is a limited time window of two hours during which the Senate must, without intervening action or motion, resolve the issue. Once both the House and Senate approve the final conference report, it does require a presidential signature to become law, like any ordinary legislation.

AGRICULTURE

OVERVIEW

From the outset of the 118th Congress, the reauthorization of the expiring Farm Bill has been atop the legislative agenda for both the House Committee on Agriculture and the Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry. Expiration of the Farm Bill in 2023 forced a oneyear extension of the 2018 law through September 2024. A second one-year extension is looking increasingly likely during the lame duck session.

Congressional farm-state Republicans generally will not support a Farm Bill unless it enhances the farm commodity safety net which has been largely stagnant for more than a decade. “More farm in the Farm Bill” is their mantra. Congressional Democrats generally have been unwilling to cede any of the significant gains they have made since 2018 in increasing funding for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) – 84% increase – and Farm Bill conservation programs – 33% increase.

Because congressional budget rules generally require funding increases to be offset with corresponding decreases, Farm Bill advancement has been stymied. With Republicans and Democrats unable to agree on the offsetting cuts needed to fund significant new spending being sought by many in a bill that already will be the most expensive Farm Bill on record, a path forward for a Farm Bill in the 119th Congress seems elusive.

ADMINISTRATION

Key Takeaways

 A full Farm Bill reauthorization is unlikely to move in the lame duck session regardless of election outcomes. A one-year extension is more likely. Expect Farm Bill action to pick back up in 2025.

 The lame duck session will likely include action on an Appropriations Committee disaster package which contains 2023 disaster, 2024 disaster, and economic relief in some form and amounts.

 The Senate Agriculture Committee will have new leadership in the 119th Congress, with Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) expected to replace the retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI).

 House Agriculture Committee is expected to have the same leadership.

Entering a second Trump Administration, many expect it to look very similar to his first Administration on the agriculture front, particularly given rural America’s strong support for President-elect Trump. Presidentelect Trump has announced his intent to nominate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. as the Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS). As HHS Secretary, Kennedy would have direct oversight of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) allowing him to influence food, nutrition and pesticide policies. In addition, Vice President-elect JD Vance has shown interest in competition and consolidation issues which could result in what would be an unorthodox interest area for Republicans. In his first Administration, President-elect Trump relocated several Department of Agriculture (USDA) agencies from Washington, D.C. to Kansas City, Missouri. During the campaign, he has mentioned that similar actions are possible, and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) or some of its offices could be considered for relocation. With Elon Musk expected to take on a roll reviewing all of government for efficiency and efficacy, one can expect changes at USDA.

For the next Secretary of Agriculture, the Republican shortlist includes Ted McKinney, CEO of the National Association of State Departments of Agriculture; former United Nations Food and Agriculture Ambassador

Kip Tom, who has been actively campaigning for Trump at various agriculture sector events; and Missouri Gov. Mike Parson; Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-MS), former Mississippi Commissioner of Agriculture; Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller, a strong Trump loyalist, also drew considerable attention earlier in the election season, but his prospects now appear to have waned.

Trade policy will be among the mostly closely watched issues in the early months of the Trump Administration. If President-elect Trump sticks with his promise to significantly increase tariffs on all imported goods, with a particular emphasis on products from China, expect U.S. agricultural products to be among the first to be targeted for retaliation. In the first Trump Administration, USDA made direct payments of more than $20 billion to farmers impacted by the “trade war” with China. A big question will be if Congress and the Administration have the same appetite and perhaps bigger, if trade tensions with China and the rest of the world impact the global marketability of U.S. agricultural products. President-elect Trump’s former Trade Representative, Robert Lighthizer, has been a key trade advisor during the campaign and is expected to have a significant role in his second term. Others mentioned for key roles include former General Counsel at the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) Stephen Vaughn, former USTR Chief of Staff Jamieson Greer, former Deputy USTR Jeff Gerrish, and former Deputy USTR C.J. Mahoney.

At EPA, President-elect Trump has tapped former New York Representative Lee Zeldin as his nominee for top Administrator role, succeeding Michael Regan. Former Rep. Zeldin previously represented New York’s 1st congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives from 2015 to 2023. He spent four years on active duty with the U.S. Army, serving as Military Intelligence Officer, Prosecutor, and Military Magistrate. In 2022, Former Rep. Zeldin ran for Governor of New York with President-elect Trump’s endorsement but lost the race to current Governor Kathy Hochul by six points. Though Zeldin does not have a history of working on environmental or chemical issue we expect he will focus his attention on fulfilling Trump campaign promises to reduce regulations, particularly in support of U.S. energy production. During his gubernatorial bid, he outlined a plan to reverse New York’s ban on hydraulic fracking. In addition, Zeldin will likely oversee efforts to undo Biden-era rules on climate and air quality and pull back unobligated funds on clean energy initiatives.

SENATE COMMITTEE ON AGRICULTURE, NUTRITION, AND FORESTRY

With Republicans having won a majority of the Senate, current Ranking Member John Boozman (R-AR) is expected to be the next chair of the Senate Agriculture Committee. Current Chair Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) is retiring at the end of this year, paving the way for new leadership on the Democratic side of the Committee. The expected successor as ranking member is Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), who won reelection Tuesday night and is the second most senior Democrat on the Committee next Congress. Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) had been the second-highest ranking member on the Committee during the 118th Congress but lost to Republican challenger Bernie Moreno on election night. Sen. Mike Braun (R-IN) is the only other member of the Committee retiring at the end of this year. On election night, Sen. Braun won his election to serve as the next Governor of Indiana. Four other Committee members were up for reelection this cycle. Sens. Deb Fischer (R-NE), Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) and Klobuchar won their reelection bids while Sen. Brown lost. In addition to replacing Sen. Braun, additional changes could occur as members currently serving on a waiver may be replaced by members who seek a seat on the Committee. Under Republican leadership, expect a focus on traditional production agriculture and improvements to safety net programs and margin protection tools when Farm Bill conversations kick up early next year. With Republicans taking both the Senate and the White House and expected to hold a narrow House majority, there may be increased pressure for fiscal restraint – a challenge that will likely face opposition from Democrats Democratic priorities are expected to remain focused on nutrition and climate, with Sen. Klobuchar continuing her 25

advocacy for dairy and livestock issues as well as precision agriculture. Additionally, the Committee will need to address the reauthorization of the U.S. Grain Standards Act, which expires in 2025.

HOUSE COMMITTEE ON AGRICULTURE

In the House, Rep. Glenn “GT” Thompson (R-PA) will be entering his third and final term in leadership of the House Agriculture Committee as Chair On the Democratic side, two members of the Committee are retiring from the House at the end of the year, Reps. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI), who was elected to replace Sen. Stabenow, and Abigail Spanberger (D-VA), who has launched a gubernatorial bid Many Committee members faced tight reelection bids this cycle; at the time of publication, Reps. Marc Molinaro (R-NY), Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-OR), and Yadira Caraveo (D-CO) lost their races, Reps. Don Bacon (R-NE), Andrea Salinas (D-OR), Don Davis (D-NC), and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-WA) won reelection, and Reps. John Duarte (R-CA) and Jim Costa (D-CA) are still awaiting results.

Rep. Thompson can be expected to build upon the Farm, Food, and National Security Act that was reported by the Committee on a bipartisan vote in May 2024. With a Republican-controlled Senate and White House, expect similar priorities from Republicans next session but with more interest in placing guardrails around executive branch nutrition program spending and reallocating Inflation Reduction Act funding; however, a portion of the House Republican Conference has historically voted against Farm Bills due to concerns over federal spending, potentially necessitating a bipartisan coalition to advance a Farm Bill through the House. With President-elect Trump returning to the White House in January, it is unclear if Republicans will continue to push for restrictions on the Secretary of Agriculture’s use of the Commodity Credit Corporation.

SENATE COMMITTEE ON APPROPRIATIONS SUBCOMMITTEE ON AGRICULTURE, RURAL DEVELOPMENT, F OOD AND D RUG A DMINISTRATION, AND RELATED AGENCIES

As Republicans take control of the Senate, Ranking Member John Hoeven (R-ND) is set to become Chair of the Subcommittee. Current Subcommittee Chair Martin Heinrich (D-NM) is the frontrunner to take the top Democratic spot on the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, which would require him to step down from leading the Subcommittee due to Senate Democratic rules. With all other Democratic members of the Subcommittee either retiring or unlikely to step down from their leadership roles on other committees or subcommittees, there is a good chance that the next Subcommittee ranking member does not currently sit on the Subcommittee.

Under Sen. Hoeven’s leadership, expect interest in supporting research and rural development programs. Further, congressional Republican priorities will likely include decreased federal spending, including cuts and limits to climate-related, conservation, foreign assistance, and nutrition programs. Democrats will continue to push for greater funding for the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) and other discretionary nutrition programs. Other issues of interest for Democrats will be rural development, conservation, and innovation for climate-smart commodities. Subcommittee makeup will look different in the 119th Congress given the retirements of Sens. Joe Manchin (I-WV) and Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ), both of whom caucused with the Democrats. Four members were up for reelection, with Sens. Baldwin, Fischer, and Heinrich winning their races and Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) losing to his challenger.

HOUSE COMMITTEE ON APPROPRIATIONS SUBCOMMITTEE ON AGRICULTURE, RURAL DEVELOPMENT, F OOD AND D RUG A DMINISTRATION AND RELATED AGENCIES

As Republicans are poised to take the House, Reps. Andy Harris (R-MD) and Sanford Bishop (D-GA) remain as Chair and Ranking Member, respectively, of the Subcommittee. As Chair, Rep. Harris has used his appropriations bill as a platform advocating for fiscal discipline, constraining nutrition spending, establishing a new pilot program allowing states to limit foods which can be purchased with SNAP benefits, and Food and Drug Administration policy priorities, several of which were amongst the reasons this bill did not receive floor consideration this year. As he returns to this role, combined with his new role as Chair of the House Freedom Caucus, spending reduction will be a top priority for Rep. Harris and the Republican Conference

On the Democratic side, expect interest in nutrition programs, especially WIC, as well as rural development and research programs – particularly for 1890 land-grant universities and other historically black colleges and universities.

The Subcommittee will only lose two members to retirement at the end of this Congress: Reps. Jerry Carl (R-AL) and Barbara Lee (D-CA). At the time of publication, no members have lost their races; however, Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-OH) is in a tight race that has yet to be called.

FARM BILL

Farm programs are currently operating under the 2018 Farm Bill that expired in 2023, was extended for one year, and has since expired yet again. Barring a surprising alignment of interests during the lame duck session, the 2018 Farm Bill will likely be extended for another year, with Congress revisiting the Farm Bill in 2025 with even more dire funding issues.

The House Agriculture Committee passed a Farm Bill with bipartisan votes out of Committee in May 2024. Senate Agriculture Committee Chair Stabenow and Ranking Member Boozman both published differing detailed versions of their Farm Bill proposals, but no bill text was introduced or acted on by the Committee in the Senate.

Funding remains the biggest challenge as Republicans fight for increases in farm commodity program spending that are largely based on 2012 farm economy conditions and have been stagnant since at least 2014. Democrats continue to oppose as offsets any reduction in the budget increases to SNAP and conservation programs since 2018.

GENERAL SUMMATION

Looking ahead to the upcoming lame duck session and 119th Congress, there are other general agriculture related issues areas including but not limited to:

Disaster assistance for agriculture – Following the elections, expect Congress to move a disaster package containing between $10 billion and $20 billion for producer support. The disaster package will include funding for 2024 disasters, including Hurricanes Helene and Milton. Grower organizations and states impacted by 2023 disasters will work to include their needs in a disaster aid bill and secure funding for economic assistance for growers suffering from low 2024 prices.

Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) – There are talks that a trade package could come together during the lame duck session, which is thought to include GSP. GSP is a beneficial trade preference program across various sectors of the agriculture industry whose authorization lapsed nearly three years ago on Dec. 31, 2020. Unfortunately, with only 20 legislative days left in the year and a laundry list of issues that need to be addressed, the window to move a trade package will quickly close. Prospects of taking up GSP and other trade related issues in a Trump or Harris Administration are uncertain and will be highly dependent on which party has control over the House and Senate.

Taxes – The expiration of many provisions in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in 2025 will provide the opportunity to continue or reinstate a number of tax tools that benefit farmers, agriculture, and agribusiness. These include not only the TCJA’s lower tax rates, but also the estate tax exemption, the section 199A qualified business income deduction, immediate, accelerated, and bonus rates of depreciation, capital gains rates, and section 1031 property exchanges. The agriculture coalition will also be fighting to oppose any proposals to limit the use of stepped-up basis as farmers pass on their property to the next generation.

Regulatory issues – In the lame duck session, EPA will continue its effort to change its pesticide registration and reregistration programs to be compliant with the Endangered Species Act and more defensible in the courts. In recent years there has been a flurry of activity from the Agency, including new strategies for protecting species from insecticides, herbicides, and rodenticides. However, these strategies have included onerous new requirements on growers.

BUDGET & APPROPRIATIONS

OVERVIEW

As lawmakers return to Washington, their focus will turn to the ﬁscal year 2025 appropriations bills – whether to enact them during the lame duck session or punt them to the next Congress. With the U.S. government currently operating under a continuing resolution (CR) ending Dec 20, 2024, House and Senate leadership will need to chart a way forward to prevent a government shutdown.

So far, the House has reported all 12 bills from the Appropriations Committee and passed five on the floor: Defense, Homeland Security, Interior-Environment, Military Construction-Veterans Affairs, and State-Foreign Operations. The Senate Committee on Appropriations reported all but the Homeland Security spending measure out of Committee, though the full Senate has not considered any of these bills.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

 Disposing of FY25 spending bills will be top priority for lame duck session.

 Appropriations will be a key opportunity for the President-elect to seek bipartisan compromise.

 House and Senate Appropriations Committee leadership is expected to remain stable.

It is anticipated that a bipartisan coalition of appropriators will advocate for completing the FY25 bills before the next Congress is sworn in, either in a catch-all omnibus or a series of minibuses. Whether they will prevail is anyone’s guess. Four years ago, Congress passed an omnibus on Dec. 27, 2020; in 2016, it passed a continuing resolution until the next session. Currently, House and Senate appropriators have not yet determined a ﬁnal FY25 topline, which is the necessary ﬁrst step to begin conference negotiations.

During the lame duck session, Congress is also expected to take up supplemental funding legislation to address disaster recovery eﬀorts for Hurricanes Helene and Milton. Although the Biden Administration has yet to formally request additional funding, the request may include up to $100 billion for disaster relief. The Senate Appropriations Committee is also expected to hold a hearing in the coming weeks to consider disaster supplemental appropriations.

The slim majorities in the House and Senate will require Republican and Democratic members of the Appropriations Committees to work across the aisle to pass the annual spending bills

ADMINISTRATION

With the second Trump Administration, expect the President-elect to continue advocating for spending cuts, including defunding certain clean energy initiatives in the Inﬂation Reduction Act and Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, as well as cuts to organizations like the World Health Organization and United Nations Relief and Works Agency.

President-elect Trump has also stated that he is considering challenging the Impoundment Control Act, which limits the executive branch’s power to withhold the spending of funds without congressional approval. In previous campaign statements, the incoming President noted that the executive branch has some discretion over how funds should be spent, and that he would direct agencies to identify aspects of their budgets where impoundment could be used. Although impoundment has typically been used for routine administrative reasons, the Trump Administration could attempt to redirect unspent or unobligated funds to achieve certain policy goals.

As for the appropriations process, presidential elections tend to delay the release of the President’s budget request by a few weeks – or more – to ensure the new administration’s priorities are accounted for. While the budget is required to be transmitted to Congress no later than the ﬁrst Monday in February, the details of the FY26 budget will likely not be transmitted on time. The Oﬃce of Management and Budget is developing a barebones budget to allow the transition teams to move quickly to integrate the new administration’s priorities. It is likely, though, that we will see an early high level budget document that communicates the new Administration’s big priorities, with the details coming in March or later. Should the budget be delayed, it could truncate or adjust timelines for the Appropriations Committees to write FY26 spending measures and release subcommittee member submission deadlines.

SENATE COMMITTEE ON APPROPRIATIONS

With the Senate now under Republican control, current Vice Chair Collins is expected to maintain her position as the Committee’s top Republican and take the gavel as Chair. Aside from the addition of new members, Republican membership of the Committee will likely see few changes in the 119th Congress, given that Sen. Deb Fischer (R-NE) was the only Republican member up for reelection and she won her race. While it was rumored that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) was considering taking the appropriations gavel due to his seniority after stepping down as Republican Leader, this may not be the case. He is expected, however, to come back to the Appropriations Committee.

As discussed in more detail under the topic areas of this report, there are expected to be changes in leadership among several of the Appropriations Subcommittees. Of note, given his seniority and stated interest in using the remainder of his time in the Senate to bolster U.S. national security, Minority Leader McConnell may choose to take the gavel on the Subcommittee on Defense. This could trigger a broader reshuﬄing of Republican subcommittee chairs, as Sen. Collins, who currently chairs the defense panel, would likely shift to lead another subcommittee.

Under Republican-led Senate, there will likely be a renewed focus on increasing defense spending while constricting non-defense discretionary spending. With the current Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 topline discretionary spending caps set to expire, expect a Republican majority to aim to reinstate or tighten caps, particularly on non-defense discretionary spending, and to curtail the use of emergency spending to exceed any agreed upon budget caps. Additionally, while there will likely be much debate within the conference, Senate Republicans are unlikely to limit earmarks (otherwise known as congressionally directed spending (CDS) beyond the current framework adjusting its guidelines for certain accounts, which could impact the LHHS and FSGG bills.

HOUSE COMMITTEE ON APPROPRIATIONS

As Republicans retained control of the House, Chair Cole will retain his title. On both the Republican and Democratic sides, there are a number of members leaving the Committee, opening up Subcommittee chair and ranking member positions and additional slots on the Committee for new members to join.

On the Republican side, Reps. Kay Granger (R-TX) – who stepped down as Committee Chair during the 118th Congress – and Jake LaTurner (R-KS) are retiring, Rep. Jerry Carl (R-AL) lost his primary against Rep. Barry Moore (R-AL), and Rep. Mike Garcia (R-CA) lost his election to Democratic challenger George Whitesides. Notably, Rep. Calvert, current Defense Subcommittee Chair, and Rep. John Carter (R-TX), current Military Construction and Veterans Aﬀairs Subcommittee Chair, will need to seek waivers to stay on as the top

Republicans on their respective subcommittees otherwise they will be term limited out per House Republican rules.

On the Democratic side, Reps. Dutch Ruppersberger (D-MD), Derek Kilmer (D-WA), and Jennifer Wexton (DVA) are retiring, and Rep. Barbara Lee (D-CA), the current Subcommittee on State Foreign Operations ranking member, and Rep. David Trone (D-MD) will leave Congress after unsuccessfully running for the Senate. Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-OH), the current Subcommittee on Energy and Water Ranking Member, is also narrowly winning her reelection bid.

With Republicans maintaining control, expect to see continued pressure from the Party, especially from the House Freedom Caucus, to rein in spending. With the expiration of the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 caps on topline spending, there will likely be a push to reinstate some kind of caps on discretionary spending for FY26. Additionally, House Republicans’ tightening of the eligibility for earmarks, or “community project funding” (CPF), in FY24 will likely carry over into FY26. The House does not allow CPFs for the Labor, Health and Human Services, and Education or Financial Services and General Government Subcommittees, while the Senate does. The House also included a prohibition on nonproﬁt organizations from being CPF recipients under the Housing and Urban Development Economic Development Initiative account, while the Senate has no such prohibition.

GENERAL SUMMATION

Under unified Republican control of government, the Trump Administration’s chances to advance all aspects of his budgetary agenda may still be difficult to achieve, although this may open opportunities for four corner compromise on appropriations matters. One of the main questions going into his second term will be President-elect Trump’s stated intention to use impoundment to advance certain spending priorities and challenge the role of Congress in overseeing federal spending. If he moves ahead with this plan, expect significant legal objections.

CYBERSECURITY

OVERVIEW

Cybersecurity is expected to remain a top priority in the next Congress and the Trump Administration. Given the rise of more aggressive cyberattacks from nation state actors like Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, and others, there will continue to be a bipartisan and bicameral desire to expand cybersecurity and cyber capabilities within the government, military, private industry and critical infrastructure sectors.

In the days leading up to the election, published reports have said that networks tied to Russia, China and Iran have targeted American voters, using fake websites and social media accounts to spread false and misleading claims about the 2024 election at the presidential, congressional, and local levels.

Key Takeaways

 Cybersecurity will remain a top priority for Congress and the Administration

 Protecting U.S. critical infrastructure and America’s digital infrastructure will be important to both Congress and the Trump Administration.

The Biden White House is close to finalizing its second Executive Order (EO) that addresses a whole range of cybersecurity issues, including how government agencies should deploy safe Artificial Intelligence (AI), implement secure software, properly utilize cloud security and more. The EO is making its way through the interagency approval process, but there are mixed opinions on whether the Biden Administration can get it done before a new Administration takes office in January.

Congress immediately needs to decide how it will fund critical cyber initiatives, both civilian and military, for the remainder of ﬁscal year 2025, since the Continuing Resolution (CR) runs out on Dec. 20, 2024. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) is leading the eﬀort to develop an AI package that addresses AI legislation from the 118th Congress. Most of this legislation aims to regulate AI applications, enhance consumer protection, and promote research and development. This package could ride on the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) along with the Intel Reauthorization Act or pass on its own in the lame duck session

In the new year, the new Congress and Trump Administration are expected to prioritize protecting U.S. critical infrastructure and America’s digital infrastructure from cyberattacks from both nation-state actors and criminal elements. The future of the National Cybersecurity Strategy, various cyber workforce initiatives, the Cyber Safety Review Board (CSRB) (as well as other cyber commissions and working groups), legislation creating a framework to “harmonize” cybersecurity regulations across the federal government and funding for important cyber initiatives, including the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), could be addressed.

ADMINISTRATION

Given cybersecurity’s relatively bipartisan foundation, a second Trump Administration will likely be more of the same with a potential twist or two. Many of the cyber executive orders created during the ﬁrst Trump Administration that called for strengthening cyber security for federal networks, critical infrastructure and more are still in place today, more than four years later. In addition, President-elect Trump’s legacy from his ﬁrst Administration of championing cybersecurity principles for space technologies and creating cybersecurity awards to expand workforce training are expected to continue. A second Trump

Administration is also expected to continue moving forward with military cyber initiatives from his first term, including enhancing the U.S. military’s cyber capabilities, such as developing a “defend forward” cyber strategy, undertaking offensive cyber operations against nation-state actors and supporting a unified Cyber Command.

The Trump Administration may prioritize developing cybersecurity best practices for critical infrastructure sectors and reassessing existing cybersecurity regulations, potentially favoring updates that avoid mandatory measures – a lighter approach compared to the Biden Administration’s. The future of CISA also remains uncertain. During Trump’s ﬁrst term, he famously ﬁred CISA Director Chris Krebs after Krebs refuted Trump’s election fraud claims. Although President-elect Trump cannot dissolve CISA, as Congress established it in 2018 through legislation Trump himself signed, he could attempt to shift CISA under the Department of Transportation, install loyalists, cut its budget, or reduce its authority over election oversight. Recent cyberattacks on the Trump campaign may further shape these decisions and policies.

In Congress, a sustained legislative focus on cyber resilience, workforce training, and education is anticipated, along with efforts to strengthen CISA and deepen its collaboration with local, state, federal, and international partners. Significant cyber incidents and ransomware attacks, to include those impacting municipalities, U.S. critical infrastructure, telecommunication companies, and other commercial entities are expected to continue to be priorities for the congressional committees of jurisdiction. Congressional efforts will continue to focus on trying to bolster the safety and security of the nation’s sixteen critical infrastructure sectors, whose assets, systems, and networks, whether physical or virtual, are considered so vital to the United States that their incapacitation or destruction would have a debilitating effect on security, national economic security, national public health or safety, or any combination thereof. There could also be efforts to further cultivate a talent pipeline, given the need for a diverse and robust cyber workforce, support robust election security efforts, and establish a comprehensive framework for harmonizing cybersecurity regulations across the federal government. Oversight of CISA will undoubtedly touch on agency performance, needs, programming, budget, and workforce. Additionally, consistent oversight of cyber threats to the U.S. by foreign nations and nation state actors is expected to take place across multiple committees of jurisdiction, to include a deep examination of the cyber capabilities of other nations.

SENATE COMMITTEE ON HOMELAND SECURITY AND GOVERNMENTAL AFFAIRS

With Republicans winning control of the Senate, leadership of the Homeland Security and Governmental Aﬀairs Committee (HSGAC) will shift. Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY), currently the ranking member, is expected to become the new Chair, while Sen Gary Peters (D-MI) is anticipated to transition from Chair to the ranking member; however, Sen. Peters may instead pursue a role atop a subcommittee on the Appropriations Committee.

Membership on the Committee will also change, as four seats will open with the retirements of Sens. Laphonza Butler (D-CA), Tom Carper (D-DE), Mitt Romney (R-UT), and Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ). Three other members on the Committee were up for reelection: Sens. Josh Hawley (R-MO), Jacky Rosen (D-NV), and Rick Scott (R-FL). Sens. Hawley, Scott, and Rosen all won their races.

HOUSE COMMITTEE ON HOMELAND SECURITY

With the Republicans retaining control of the House, the leadership of the House Homeland Security Committee is expected to stay the same with limited changes down the dais. Rep. Mark Green (R-TN) is expected to continue serving as Chair of the House Homeland Security Committee, and Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-MS) is expected to continue serving as the ranking member. The only apparent change of committee membership will be Rep. Dan Bishop (R-NC) who did not run for reelection, but other changes could be made as the make-up of the new Congress becomes clearer in the coming days.

SENATE COMMITTEE ON APPROPRIATIONS SUBCOMMITTEE ON HOMELAND SECURITY

With Republicans gaining control of the Senate, Sen. Katie Britt (R-AL), currently the ranking member, is expected to become the Chair of the Homeland Security Appropriations Subcommittee. Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT), the current Chair, is anticipated to become the ranking member.

HOUSE COMMITTEE ON APPROPRIATIONS SUBCOMMITTEE ON HOMELAND SECURITY

With Republicans retaining control of the House, current Subcommittee Chair Mark Amodei (R-NV) is expected to retain his role. Rep. Lauren Underwood (D-IL), the current acting Ranking Member of the Subcommittee, is expected to be Ranking Member of the Subcommittee next Congress. Rep. Underwood ascended to the top Democratic spot after Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-TX), the former ranking member of the Subcommittee, was indicted on allegations of bribery.

GENERAL SUMMATION

Given cybersecurity’s bipartisan foundation, both Congress and the incoming Administration are expected to maintain a focus on protecting U.S. critical and digital infrastructure from cyberattacks by nation-state actors and criminal groups. The future of the National Cybersecurity Strategy, cyber workforce initiatives, the Cyber Safety Review Board, and other cyber commissions and working groups will likely be addressed. Additionally, legislation aimed at "harmonizing" cybersecurity regulations across the federal government and securing funding for key initiatives, including the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), may also be prioritized.

DEFENSE

OVERVIEW

The 119th Congress will bring both change and continuity for defense and national security issues. Although the makeup and overall direction of the congressional defense committees will remain relatively stable, the changing global threat environment and increasing government debt will play key roles in congressional policy and budgetary agendas. The wars in the Middle East and Europe, growing instability in the Indo-Paciﬁc, proliferation of non-state actors, and threats to U.S. national security posed by China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran, will drive policy and funding in the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) and defense appropriations bills in the 119th Congress. Due to narrow majorities, passage of ﬁnal policy and funding legislation will require compromise between House and Senate Republican and Democratic leaders.

Additional areas of focus for the defense committees are expected to include supporting emerging technologies, innovation, reforming the Department of Defense’s (DoD) acquisition process, bolstering the defense industrial base, Defense Production Act, and investing in military personnel (quality of life).

ADMINISTRATION

KEY TAKEAWAYS



Leadership on defense committees will remain relatively stable.

 Increased defense spending greater than inﬂation with a focus on modernization and growth of the force.

 Focus on working with Allies to ensure equal participation and support of global national security issues.

 Continued focus on securing the U.S. supply chain and industrial base through increased domestic output, increased import restrictions, and reduced regulations

 Continued bipartisan support of legislation focused on China.

 Continued funding and development of policy for autonomy and artiﬁcial intelligence.

 Continued support for the development of Space Force capabilities.

President-elect Trump’s second Administration is expected to emphasize an increased budget request for defense, anticipated to be above inﬂation rates. Increased funding for procurement and modernization, missile defense, and nuclear triad modernization are expected to be included in the Trump Administration’s budget request. Building on House Armed Services Committee (HASC) Republicans’ personnel focus in the 118th Congress, the Trump Administration is also likely to support additional investments in servicemember pay and other quality-of-life issues. President-elect Trump has also pledged to sign into law legislation that would create the Space National Guard, a National Guard component of the Space Force. While the Space Force and National Guard support this legislation, it is opposed by all 50 state governors as well as members in the House and Senate. Should President-elect Trump’s selection for Secretary of Defense, Peter Hegseth, be conﬁrmed by the new Senate, the DoD may also address diversity, equity, and inclusion programs and the role of women serving in combat.

Expect the Trump Administration’s National Defense Strategy (NDS) to build on its 2018 strategy, which focused on great power competition, strategic deterrence, building a more lethal force, reducing bureaucratic limitations, and enabling a more agile acquisition process. The Trump Administration’s next NDS may also take a more forceful approach to competition with China by calling for additional resources to advance U.S. military superiority in the Indo-Paciﬁc.

Additional areas of focus for the DoD will include strengthening the U.S. defense industrial base and onshoring supply chains, as well as workforce readiness. The DoD is expected to continue to review and revise its Planning, Programming, Budgeting, and Execution (PPBE) system at the recommendation of the PPBE Reform Commission’s March 2024 report, which found current budgeting processes are incapable of quickly adapting and responding to the current threat environment.

While President-elect Trump will continue to support the country’s longstanding alliances across the globe, it is expected his Administration will resume its push for North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) members to increase their defense spending, along with other allies. In 2006, NATO Defense Ministers agreed to commit a minimum of 2% of their annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Currently, only 23 of 32 NATO nations have fulﬁlled this commitment. During the campaign, President-elect Trump said he would push NATO allies to increase their national defense budgets from 2% to 3% of their GDP. The Trump Administration is also expected to provide continued military support for Israel, to include supplemental funding as well as restricted military support for Ukraine that will likely tie supplemental funding to increased support from allies, movement towards a peace deal, and a potential loan framework.

While Republican control of the Senate will help the Trump Administration move their agenda forward, including by conﬁrming DoD nominations, the Republicans’ slim majority in the Senate will likely slow down the conﬁrmation process and force compromise with the Senate Democratic minority, as well as passing bills in the House. Bipartisan support will be required from House and Senate Democrats to pass the NDAA on schedule.

SENATE COMMITTEE ON ARMED SERVICES (SASC)

With the Republicans regaining the majority in the Senate, Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS) will become Chair of the Senate Committee on Armed Services (SASC). It is expected that Republican members of the SASC will call for an increase in defense spending at or above the rate of inﬂation. As Ranking Member, Sen. Wicker advocated for the defense budget to increase to 5% of the GDP, which roughly equates to $1 trillion annually. As Chair, several of Sen. Wicker’s priorities will include force planning and strategic force development, supporting the defense industrial base, innovation, streamlining the acquisition process, and addressing growing cooperation between adversaries. Sen Wicker is also expected to continue to champion the expansion of submarine, destroyer, and amphibious ship production. Additionally, Sen. Wicker has advocated for the need to invest in both hardware and software systems, noting, for example, that the DoD should continue to fund platforms like the F-22 and B-21 while also investing in software-driven platforms like Collaborative Combat Aircraft and other unmanned systems.

Sen. Jack Reed (D-RI) is expected to remain the SASC’s top Democrat. As Ranking Member, Sen. Reed will continue to work closely with Sen. Wicker to pass the NDAA, with SASC Democrats expected to support an increase in defense spending, though not at the rates proposed by Sen. Wicker. SASC Democrats are also expected to support prioritized investments in emerging technologies and modernization initiatives. In the unlikely event Sen. Reed chooses to vacate the post to take up another committee assignment such as ranking member of the Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) would be next in line to serve as Ranking Member. However, Sen. Shaheen is expected to replace Sen. Ben Cardin (DMD) as the lead Democrat on the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations. If this occurs, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) is the next-most senior Democratic member on SASC. Sens. Reed and Shaheen are both expected to support an expansion of the Navy.

Minor changes are expected in SASC membership. Senate Republicans will add at least one additional member to the SASC while Senate Democrats will lose one member. Rep. Jim Banks (R-IN), who won the Senate race in Indiana, could be the next Republican member of the SASC. With the retirement of Sen. Joe Manchin (I-WV), Senate Democrats will not have to make any changes to their SASC membership. While Republican subcommittee leadership is not expected to change, Senate Democrats will have to appoint a new Chair of the Cybersecurity Subcommittee, which will likely be Sen. Rosen, given her reelection, or Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-IL). After setting up membership of the full committee and subcommittees, including chair and ranking members, the priority of the SASC will be to hold hearings on military and civilian nominations. While Sens. Wicker and Reed have a strong relationship and are committed to ﬁnding bipartisan support for issues, they will need to navigate divisions among members to conﬁrm the incoming Trump Administration’s political and military nominees.

HOUSE COMMITTEE ON ARMED SERVICES (HASC)

With Republicans maintaining control of the House, Rep. Mike Rogers (R-AL) will remain the Chair of the House Committee on Armed Services (HASC). In the 119th Congress, Rep. Rogers will continue his focus on quality-of-life issues for DoD. He will continue to advocate for an increased defense budget to counter inﬂation, while simultaneously supporting readiness and modernization initiatives. Rep. Rogers will also focus on threats posed by China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran; reforming the DoD acquisition process to drive shorter acquisition timelines for procurement of emerging technologies; and programs that will bolster U.S. space, naval, and nuclear capabilities. Expect bipartisan cooperation to continue, with Rep. Rogers continuing to advocate for increased defense budgets based on a deteriorating global security environment.

Rep. Adam Smith (D-WA) will return as the Ranking Member of HASC and is expected to continue to push for a smarter defense budget that builds systems to meet national security needs. Rep. Smith said his number one priority is to induce DoD to more rapidly adopt critically needed technologies, especially in the realm of secure communications, information systems, drones and counter-drone technology, missiles, and missile defense. While Rep. Smith supports a smaller DoD budget and closer parity between defense and non-defense spending, he is opposed to drastic reductions. He has also been opposed to building up the military to ﬁght two Cold Wars with China and Russia. Rep. Smith supports strengthening of alliances to counter worldwide threats, emphasizing diplomacy and development, and is expected to seek to reduce expenditures on nuclear weapons while supporting increased funding for innovation, rapid adoption and scaling of critical technologies, alternative energy to combat climate change, and a continued emphasis on personnel issues, including diversity and inclusion.

House Republicans and Democrats will need to appoint new members to the HASC. Expect signiﬁcant reshuﬄing of subcommittee leadership and membership in the 119th Congress. Reps. Jim Banks (R-IN), Chair of the Military Personnel Subcommittee; Andy Kim (D-NJ), Ranking Member of the Military Personnel Subcommittee; Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), Ranking Member of the Intelligence and Special Operations Subcommittee; and Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) all ran for Senate, winning their races. Rep. Doug Lamborn (R-CO), Chair of the Strategic Forces Subcommittee, is retiring. Rep Mike Gaetz (R-FL) accepted the nomination to be the next Attorney General; Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) accepted the nomination to be the next U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations; and Rep. Mike Waltz (R-FL), Chair of the Readiness Subcommittee, will become President-elect Trump’s National Security Advisor.

SENATE APPROPRIATIONS COMMITTEE

As Republicans assume leadership of the Senate, expect a substantial reshuﬄing of Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense (SAC-D) leadership and membership. Due to the shift in majority control, and the possible continuation of a 10/9 majority-minority membership split, look to see new Republican senators joining the subcommittee and a few Democratic senators, including current SAC-D Chair Jon Tester (D-MT), departing the committee. With Sen. Tester’s loss to Republican challenger Tim Sheehy, there will likely be a ripple eﬀect throughout the Democratic leadership to include subcommittee assignments. With Sen. Reed being the most senior member of the subcommittee after Sen. Tester, he has the option to become its next ranking member - though this scenario is unlikely. Since he will almost surely remain the top Democrat on SASC, Sen. Brian Schatz (D-HI) is next in line.

The next Chair of SAC-D is likely to be determined by Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY), who is seeking a leadership role on the Appropriations Committee. While he is unlikely to challenge current Vice Chair Susan Collins (R-ME) for the full committee gavel, he may seek the SAC-D gavel, as indicated by his stated desire to work on national security issues after he steps down as Senate Republican Leader.

The SAC-D will continue to prioritize funding for issues relating to defense modernization and competition with near-peer adversaries, including strategic investments in areas such as space, hypersonics, artificial intelligence, and unmanned systems. Should he take the gavel, Sen. McConnell will support increased defense toplines. Sen. Schatz is also likely to support issues affecting U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, given his representation of Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam, as well as any residual issues caused by the 2021 Red Hill fuel leak.

HOUSE APPROPRIATIONS COMMITTEE

Although the House remains under Republican leadership, the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense (HAC-D) is expected to see movement among members of the majority and minority. Current HACD Chair Ken Calvert (R-CA) won his reelection bid and is expected to stay on as Chair, though he will need to request a waiver from the House Republicans Steering Committee due to term limits imposed by the House Republican Conference. Full Committee Chair Tom Cole (R-OK) is expected to support this waiver request. Rep. Mike Garcia (R-CA) lost his reelection bid, which opens up a vacancy on the majority’s side of the dais.

Ranking Member Betty McCollum (D-MN) will stay on as the subcommittee's top Democrat, though the retirements of Reps. Dutch Ruppersberger (D-MD) and Derek Kilmer (D-WA) will provide an opportunity for two new members to join the HAC-D ranks. With Rep. Marcy Kaptur’s (D-OH) win, she is also expected to remain on the Subcommittee.

Under the leadership of Chair Calvert, HAC-D is also expected to continue supporting investments in defense modernization and emerging technologies, along with a defense topline at or above President's Budget Request and inflation levels.

DEFENSE HEALTH

This legislative outlook for defense health policies and funding in the 119th Congress will see some subtle but important changes. A shift to a Republican Administration coupled with a Republican-majority in the Senate Chamber will likely result in increased topline funding level for the Defense Appropriations Act for 2025.

In the Senate, shifts to a Republican majority with Sens. Susan Collins (R-ME) and Roger Wicker (R-MS) at the helm of the Appropriations and Authorization Committees may result in stable funding for the Congressionally Directed Medical Research Programs (CDMRP). Across the aisle, a few key priorities remain in the Defense Health space moving forward, to include a concrete focus on Warﬁghter Brain Health (traumatic brain injuries (TBI) and blast overpressure), mental health, women’s health, trauma research, and digital health – ensuring platforms and technologies are implemented and standardized across the Military Health System to support the delivery of and access to care.

Senate leaders Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), Thom Tillis (R-NC), and Joni Ernst (R-IA) have led efforts to increase research from the Department of Defense on how to best protect servicemembers from brain injuries associated with repeated weapon-firing and strong blasts in training and operational environments. Following the 2023 Warfighter Brain Health Initiative, we anticipate that Congress will pursue additional policy and appropriations initiatives focused on reducing, monitoring, and detecting brain injuries in the upcoming fiscal year.

The Biden Administration recently announced a $500 million commitment to women’s health research, primarily through CDMRP spending. Despite bipartisan support for women’s health research, such as cancer-speciﬁc research and pre- and post-partum care, tensions related to abortion access remain within the Department of Defense. In 2023, the Republican Senate leaders, including Senate Armed Services Committee Ranking Member Roger Wicker, sent a letter to the Department stating concerns with its abortion policies. With a Republican majority in the Senate and a second Trump Administration, we expect Republicans to push back on this issue, speciﬁcally relating to travel stipends for female servicemembers seeking abortion services. Although unlikely to impact research, this could impact access to and delivery of care.

There will be a shift in leadership within the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Health Affairs. Dr. Lester Martinez-Lopez submitted his resignation on Oct. 18, 2024, with an expected departure date of Nov. 1. Ms. Seileen Mullen will serve as the Acting Assistant Secretary of Defense for Health Affairs in the interim until a nominee is named and confirmed by the next Administration/Congress.

EDUCATION

OVERVIEW

Republicans have reclaimed the Senate and maintained control of the House of Representatives. President-elect Donald Trump has made it clear that he intends to dismantle the Department of Education as one of the ﬁrst actions in his new Administration, which would require an act of Congress. Reps. Tim Walberg (R-MI) or Burgess Owens (R-UT) are expected to jockey to become Chair of the House Committee on Education and the Workforce, with Rep. Virginia Foxx (R-NC) stepping down from her role due to GOP conference rules on term limits for committee leadership. Sen. Cassidy (R-LA) will become Chair of the Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions, moving Sen. Bernie Sanders (D-VT) to serve as Ranking Member.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

 With Republicans taking a majority in both chambers, Congress will stall signiﬁcant education policy action.

 The House Committee on Education and the Workforce will have a new Republican leader, forging a new era in the committee’s history.

In the K-12 space, Democrats will continue to oppose private school vouchers and tuition tax credits, whereas Republicans will continue highlighting the importance of school choice. The Elementary and Secondary Act was last reauthorized in the Every Students Succeeds Act (P.L. 114-95), which appropriates federal aid to beneﬁt K-12 students. While the authorization expired in Fiscal Year 2020, reauthorization will be unlikely for several years given the large divide between Democrats and Republicans on the role of the federal government in K-12 education.

In higher education, social issues on college and university campuses will remain at the forefront for Republicans. Republicans will push forward eﬀorts to remove diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) provisions from college campuses, particularly those intended to align with new state laws. Democrats will continue to advocate for additional assistance to underserved communities. There may be opportunities for both sides to work together on priorities such as the Workforce Innovation and Opportunity Act (WIOA) reauthorization, ﬁxes to the Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) program, student loan counseling and other general aid information for students, and a focus on mental health assistance on school campuses.

ADMINISTRATION

President-elect Trump will place immediate attention on efforts to dismantle the Department of Education, stating the agency is ineffective. Specifically, this effort will shift the authority and control of education programming back to the states. In doing so, this will also provide greater autonomy for parents to take part in the education curriculum for students. President-elect Trump will prioritize emphasizing universal school choice, dismantling diversity, equity, and inclusion laws, and safeguarding parental rights. The Trump Administration will increase efforts to hold institutions of higher education accountable by increasing transparency and taxing those universities with large endowments in an effort to lower student expenses. Additional priorities for higher education reform will include changing the college accreditation system and protecting free speech on college and university campuses.

SENATE COMMITTEE ON HEALTH, EDUCATION, LABOR, AND PENSIONS (HELP)

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) will take the gavel as Chair of the Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee, moving Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) to serve as Ranking Member. As Ranking Member in the 118th Congress, Sen. Cassidy focused much of Republicans’ attention on student loan forgiveness, Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) rollout, and antisemitic behavior on college campuses. Sen. Cassidy has been a vocal critic of the Biden Administration, conducting oversight into actions that Republicans argue promoted identity politics rather than educational priorities.

The Committee will see changes in Republican membership as Republicans take the majority and with the retirements of Sens. Mike Braun (R-IN) and Mitt Romney (R-UT). Five Democratic Committee members were up this cycle, with Sens. Tim Kaine (D-VA), Chris Murphy (D-CT), Tammy Baldwin (D-WI), and Sanders winning their reelection races.

President-elect Trump and Senate Republicans will put Chair Cassidy in a strong position to set out his agenda. Sen. Cassidy is expected to make progress in education reforms that invest in school choice, parental rights, removing federal inﬂuence in education systems, and boosting STEM workforce training programs.

Sen. Cassidy has long supported apprenticeship training, noting that it encourages educational choice and produces long-term financial benefits for prospective students. He condemned the Biden Administration’s actions to forgive student loans, arguing that the debt did not vanish and was instead placed on the shoulders of American workers who chose not to attend college due to financial constraints. The Trump Administration will end student loan forgiveness, which is a win for Sen. Cassidy’s position on the issue.

The issue-ridden rollout of FAFSA continues to confuse students and university faculty. Sen. Cassidy will likely work with the incoming Trump Administration to address ongoing issues that ensure students can access ﬁnancial aid promptly. Otherwise, Republicans will drive home the need to invest in school choice, voucher programs, and eﬀorts that promote educational freedom for students and parents.

HOUSE COMMITTEE ON EDUCATION AND WORKFORCE

With Republicans maintaining control of the House, Reps. Tim Walberg (R-MI) and Burgess Owens (R-UT) will go up against each other to succeed Virginia Foxx (R-NC) as Chair. If Rep. Walberg takes the gavel, he will focus on bolstering school choice, making college more aﬀordable, and boosting apprenticeships and internships. Rep. Owens has been noted as one of the committee’s leading Republicans against DEI in higher education, which he will pursue further if granted the gavel. The next Chair will lead the House Education and Workforce Committee alongside Ranking Member Bobby Scott (D-VA). In the 118th Congress, the House Education and Workforce Committee focused much of its attention on conducting oversight of the Biden Administration and its actions on student loan forgiveness, DEI protections, COVID-19 response, and Title IX regulations. Republican members reported legislation favorably out of committee that supported parental rights and academic freedom.

Membership on the Committee is expected to change for both parties next Congress. Reps. Jim Banks (RIN) successfully ran for Senate while Reps. Gregorio Sablan (R-MP) and Kathy Manning (D-NC) are retiring. Reps. Bob Good (R-VA) and Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) lost their primaries. Reps. Brandon Williams (R-NY), Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-OR), and Susan Wild (D-PA) lost their general elections. Rep. Michelle Steel’s (R-CA)

race has yet to be called. Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY), who led the charge against university and college presidents regarding antisemitic behavior on campuses, has been nominated by President-elect Trump to serve as United Nations Ambassador, leaving another position on the committee open.

President-elect Trump spent much of his time on the campaign trail promoting policies that Republicans pushed forward in the 118th Congress. As part of this agenda, House Education and Workforce Republican members will advance policies that prioritize school choice and voucher programs, curriculum reform, parental rights, and investments in civic education. Institutions of higher education could face pressure amid their handling of transgender athletes in women’s sports, as that continues to be a dividing message amongst Democrats and Republicans. The majority will likely continue investigations into institutions of higher education with perceived ties to the Chinese Communist Party to curb foreign inﬂuence on American colleges and universities.

Over the past year, college campuses have attempted to navigate free speech amid the conﬂict in Gaza, while ensuring the protection of Jewish students. The Committee gained national attention when it successfully called for the resignation of prominent university presidents from Harvard, Columbia, and UPenn. The Committee will continue to hold hearings and introduce legislation that condemns antisemitic behavior while supporting Jewish students and educators. The Committee recently released a report detailing ongoing antisemitism investigations on college campuses. These and similar eﬀorts can be expected to increase in the 119th Congress.

In addition to dismantling the Department of Education, the Trump Administration will place its immediate attention on uprooting diversity, equity, and inclusion policies within education systems. Ending the Biden Administration’s “woke” education policies will be on full display by House Republicans in the early days of the Trump Administration. The Committee will focus on addressing ongoing issues with FAFSA by mitigating the processing challenges that arose in recent years. The Committee is also likely to revisit expansion of the Pell Grant program to cover shorter-term training programs by way of the Bipartisan Workforce Pell Act, legislation that was championed by Reps. Elise Stefanik (R-NY), Scott, Foxx, and Mark DeSaulnier (D-CA).

With a potential WIOA reauthorization opportunity on the horizon, the Committee will look to work across party lines to bolster workforce development and job training programs. The Committee is poised to continue the progress it made in the 118th Congress when it advanced a reauthorization bill to the House floor, passing it by an overwhelming bipartisan vote. The legislation eventually stalled in the Senate. Nonetheless, conversations have continued over the need to fill workforce gaps created by the Inflation Reduction Act, Infrastructure and Investment in Jobs Act, and the CHIPS and Science Act.

SENATE COMMITTEE ON APPROPRIATIONS SUBCOMMITTEE ON LABOR, HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES, AND EDUCATION

The Subcommittee will face a shift in its leadership structure with Republicans retaking the Senate chamber. Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV) will become Chair and Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) will transition to serve as Ranking Member. The Subcommittee oversees funding for education programs and will face a signiﬁcant restructuring of priorities now that Republicans have retaken the Senate. In FY25, the Subcommittee advanced its bill on a bipartisan vote of 25-3 which funded career technical education, rural education, early childhood education, and K-12 formula grants. Republicans and Democrats sought common ground for education initiatives that invested in academic programming targeting student and educator needs.

President-elect Trump will propose drastic spending cuts in his FY26 budget to the Senate Appropriations Committee. Republican members will either restructure the Department of Education budget or zero it out altogether depending on the Administration’s actions. The Department provides 11% of public-school funding nationwide but dissolving it would require an act from Congress. Republican members will bolster the Trump Administration’s eﬀorts to shift power back to the states in overseeing education programming. Chair Moore Capito will navigate working with her Democratic counterparts while promoting the Trump Administration’s agenda.

It is not immediately clear what the Trump Administration will propose for spending cuts, but Republican members will be expected to draft a LHHS-Ed bill that is a fraction of what was supported in FY25. The Trump Administration will put institutions of higher education on notice regarding two key issues: antisemitism on campus and Title IX sex-based discrimination. On the campaign trail, President-elect Trump highlighted these issues as key points in his agenda. LHHS-Ed Subcommittee Republicans will continue to raise these issues in committee hearings and argue with Democrats over their support.

SENATE COMMITTEE ON APPROPRIATIONS SUBCOMMITTEE ON COMMERCE, JUSTICE, AND SCIENCE (CJS)

The CJS Subcommittee will be important to watch as it has jurisdiction over funding for the National Science Foundation, which many universities rely on for research investments. The Subcommittee is expected to be led by Sen. Jerry Moran (R-KS), the current ranking member. Current Chair Jeanne Shaheen is expected to be ranking member of the Committee on Foreign Relations, creating an opening atop the Subcommittee on the Democratic side. While this role will depend on how leadership roles play out across subcommittees and committees, Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI) and Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) may be interested in the job. The CJS Subcommittee had one retirement, Sen. Joe Manchin (I-WV) and two members up for reelection who won their races, Sens. Deb Fischer (R-NE) and Martin Heinrich (D-NM).

Under the CJS Subcommittee’s jurisdiction, there may be a proposal to signiﬁcantly decrease the National Science Foundation given the Biden Administration’s investments made possible through the CHIPS and Science Act.

HOUSE APPROPRIATIONS COMMITTEE SUBCOMMITTEE ON LABOR, HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES, AND EDUCATION

As Republicans are on track to maintain control of the House, Rep. Tom Cole (R-OK) will continue to lead the House Appropriations Committee as Chair, with Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-CT) returning in her role as Ranking Member. Notably, both members have previously led the Subcommittee and have a strong history of working together on issues aﬀecting education. The makeup of the Subcommittee will continue with Chair Robert Aderholt (R-AL) and Ranking Member Rosa DeLauro (D-CT). Expect funding cut battles between Democrats and Republicans that are similar to the previous Congress.

President-elect Trump will pave the way for House Republicans to implement his Administration’s conservative agenda in education policy. Republican Appropriators will ensure funding is prioritized for school choice and voucher programs, while public school funding is reduced.

On the campaign trail, President-elect Trump announced plans to dismantle the Department of Education (ED). Republican Appropriators will attempt to signiﬁcantly change the Department’s practices or introduce legislation to dissolve the agency entirely. Federal funding disagreements between Democrats and Republicans will become exacerbated as initiatives to reduce domestic spending will be on full display.

Institutions of higher education could face increased pressure as they navigate the issues of transgender athletes in women’s sports and antisemitic activity on college campuses.

While not under the LHHS-Ed purview, the Commerce, Justice, and Science Subcommittee will aim to decrease funding for the National Science Foundation (NSF). During the Biden Administration, NSF saw signiﬁcant increases with the passage of the CHIPS and Science Act. Republicans will target programs in an eﬀort to reduce overall federal spending for education and research programs.

GENERAL SUMMATION

President-elect Trump, with the support of Republican majorities in the Senate and House, will signiﬁcantly limit education policy movement in the 119th Congress. However, both authorizing committees will prioritize dismantling the Department of Education, with a focus on resolving FAFSA processing challenges. The Committees will also explore bipartisan initiatives like aiming to expand the Pell Grant program and strengthen workforce development eﬀorts, especially with a potential WIOA reauthorization opportunity on the horizon.

ENERGY & ENVIRONMENT

OVERVIEW

As the Biden Administration ends, federal agencies are pushing to award and distribute as much funding as possible in keeping with the priorities set forth in the Inﬂation Reduction Act (IRA), Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), and the CHIPS and Science Act. The fate of these bills will be central to conversations about energy and environmental policy in 2025 and beyond.

Congressional energy debates will continue to center around the energy transition and related supply chain challenges, energy and mineral production on federal lands, permitting reform, energy specific tax policy, and the national role in addressing climate change. Major changes in relevant committee composition and leadership will significantly affect the pace and direction of energy and natural resources policy in both chambers. Looking ahead, it is important to remember that factors such as congressional margins, the fall of the Chevron doctrine, the permitting reform debate, and global trade dynamics are important in considering how far the new Congress and Administration will be able to go in advancing or retreating from the energy policies and programs established over the last several years.

ADMINISTRATION

KEY TAKEAWAYS

 The Biden Administration is focused on distributing IRA funds for the remainder of the term.

 The incoming Trump Administration might roll back various clean energy policies, focusing on expanding oil and gas production.

 Leadership changes in key congressional committees could aﬀect energy policies, especially around federal land access, permitting reforms, and energy tax policies.

President-elect Donald Trump will look to roll back many of the politically divisive programs and measures included in President Biden’s hallmark spending and energy bills, especially those aligned with Democrats’ “green” agenda. Leading targets include the 30D EV tax credit and the newly ﬁnalized methane fee (which is a likely candidate for a Congressional Review Act resolution and possible budget reconciliation rollback). President-elect Trump will also prioritize executive actions and rulemaking that seek to increase production of oil and gas on federal lands and in U.S. waters; take steps to pause or delay oﬀshore wind leasing and projects; and loosen regulatory requirements for approvals of new LNG export capacity. Ultimately, numerous factors will determine how much the Trump Administration can roll back or reprogram IRA and other funds but stand out: the ultimate balance of power and the number of Republicans whose districts are experiencing economic growth due to clean energy funding and related new manufacturing capacity.

In a second Trump Administration, agencies key to energy, environment and natural resources policy include the Departments of Energy (DOE), Interior, Treasury, Commerce, and the Environmental Protection Agency. Rumored nominees for the Secretary of Energy include Governor Doug Burgum of South Dakota, who is aligned with many of Trump’s energy positions, former Deputy Secretary Mark Menezes, former DOE Under Secretary for Science Paul Dabbar, and Liberty Energy CEO Chris Wright. Gov. Burgum is also a rumored candidate for “energy czar”, a position the President-elect Trump stated he would be establishing within the Executive Oﬃce of the President.

Former New York Representative Lee Zeldin has been nominated by President Trump to serve as Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). While Zeldin is not widely known for his environmental policy work during his time in Congress, he has been an advocate for environmental protection, speciﬁcally on issues related to water quality and the health of Long Island Sound. A staunch supporter of lifting fracking bans and promoting U.S. energy dominance, Zeldin will play a key role in helping President Trump implement his deregulatory agenda at the agency.

On Thursday, Nov. 14, President-elect Trump announced he was nominating South Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum to be Secretary of Interior.

As the effects of trade and tax policy on the clean energy transition continue, the Secretary of Treasury role is of significantly increased importance to energy stakeholders. Rumored Trump nominees are former U.S. Trade Representative Bob Lighthizer, hedge fund manager John Paulson, and former Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin. The head of the Commerce Department could well be filled by Linda McMahon or Sen Marsha Blackburn (R-TN).

SENATE COMMITTEE ON ENERGY AND NATURAL RESOURCE S

Following the retirement of Chair Joe Manchin (I-WV) and the ascension of current Ranking Member John Barrasso (R-WY) into Assistant Majority Leader in the Senate, expect Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT) to be the new Chair of the Committee If Sen. Lee becomes Chair, expect him to focus on policies to increase access to federal lands for non-federal stakeholders and energy production on federal lands. Should Sen. Lee be named to a Cabinet position as some are intimating, Sen. Daines (R-MT) would be the likely Chair. Although Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-WA), a former ranking member, is senior to Sen. Heinrich, her state’s long-time economic partnership with the technology sector is a compelling reason for her to retain her spot as the top Democrat at the Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation.

If the Energy Permitting Reform Act of 2024 is not enacted in the lame duck session, the permitting reform debate will continue, particularly because Sen. Heinrich has long prioritized reforms to the siting and permitting of transmission infrastructure and would seek to advance this with Sen. Lee in exchange for other policy wins. On the Republican side of the Committee, expensive litigation and costly delays for oil and gas infrastructure and development will drive desires for permitting reform into the 119th Congress. Whether Sens. Lee and Heinrich can ﬁnd common ground in such a scenario remains to be seen, but other mutual areas of interest include mining law reform and the development of geothermal energy, a growing priority for the western United States.

With Sen. Tom Carper (D-DE), the current Chair of the Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works, set to retire, Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI), who won his reelection, is the most likely to ascend to ranking member; however, he has not yet publicly confirmed whether he would want to give up his position as the top Democrat on the Committee on the Budget. If Sen. Whitehouse demurs, Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-OR) is next in line, which would require him to step down as Chair of the Committee on Appropriations Subcommittee on Interior, Environment, and Related Agencies. Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV) is set to continue as the top Republican. Sens. Capito and Carper had substantial bipartisan success in the areas of recycling and nuclear policy as well as on the Water Resources Development Act, among other issues. Sen. Capito may seek to continue such efforts should Sen. Whitehouse be her partner at the top of the Committee, understanding Sen. Whitehouse and Sen. Capito are generally further apart on numerous policy matters within the Committee’s jurisdiction.

HOUSE COMMITTEE ON ENERGY AND COMMERCE

Following the retirement of Chair Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-WA), the House Committee on Energy and Commerce will have new leadership in the 119th Congress. Expect a close race between Reps Brett Guthrie (R-KY) and Bob Latta (R-OH). This could be upended if other members, like Rep. Richard Hudson (R-NC), decide to announce their candidacy for Chair. Whoever emerges will likely support efforts to rollback portions of the IRA clean energy incentives while pursing efforts on permitting reform, grid resiliency, and a continued need for an all-of-the-above energy strategy that capitalizes on domestic resources to ensure security and reliability through the energy transition. Rep. Frank Pallone (D-NJ) is expected to maintain his position as the top Democrat on the Committee, a position he has held as either chair or ranking member since 2014. A significant number of current Committee members, including 12 Republicans, will be retiring at the end of the 118th Congress, leaving a substantial number of openings to be filled. Considering this loss of institutional knowledge, expect to see shifts in Committee priorities and pacing as new Committee members are seated and identify their policy goals.

HOUSE COMMITTEE ON NATURAL RESOURCES

Expect current Committee Chair Bruce Westerman (R-AR) to retain this role in a Republican House. Rep. Westerman will likely continue his focus on increasing energy production on federal lands, oversight of permitting agencies, and reforms to the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA). These issues are likely to fall along partisan and ideological lines between Committee Democrats and Republicans. Current Ranking Member Raúl Grijalva (D-AZ) is expected to continue as the top Democrat on the Committee.

HOUSE COMMITTEE ON SPACE, SCIENCE, AND TECHNOLOGY

Committee Chair Frank Lucas (R-OK) has reached leadership term limits and will be moving out of the role; Rep. Brian Babin (R-TX) has expressed interest in replacing him. Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-CA), the Ranking Member, represents Silicon Valley and will continue to advocate for issues related to the tech industry. The Subcommittee on Energy will have new leadership. Current Subcommittee Chair Brandon Williams (R-NY) lost his reelect eﬀort; expect Rep. Randy Weber (R-TX) or Rep. Jim Baird (R-IN) to replace him as the top Republican on the Subcommittee. On the Democratic side, expect Rep. Summer Lee (D-PA) to ascend to Ranking Member, succeeding Jamaal Bowman (D-NY), who lost his primary earlier this year.

The Subcommittee will likely have continued bipartisan interest in how to manage and continue to fund DOE and R&D programs to accelerate the development and deployment of advanced energy technologies.

SENATE COMMITTEE ON APPROPRIATIONS

Ranking Member Sen. John Kennedy will likely take over as Chair of the Subcommittee on Energy and Water Development and Related Agencies, switching roles with Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA). With Sen. Krysten Sinema (I-AZ) retiring, expect another Democratic Senator – possibly Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-WA) – to join the Subcommittee.

Leadership on the Subcommittee for Interior, Environment, and Related Agencies, which funds the EPA, will remain stagnant, with Sen. Jeﬀ Merkley (D-OR) and Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) leading their respective parties.

HOUSE COMMITTEE ON APPROPRIATIONS

Leadership of the House Energy and Water Appropriations Subcommittee is expected to be Reps. Chuck Fleischmann (R-TN) and Marcy Kaptur (D-OH), respectively, should Rep. Kaptur win reelection. Current Chair Mike Simpson (R-ID) and Ranking Member Chellie Pingree (D-ME) are likely to continue in their roles for the Interior Appropriations Subcommittee. Rep. Simpson will prioritize funding for federal and local wildﬁre-ﬁghting operations. Expect division regarding funding levels for the National Forest Service and National Parks Service

GENERAL SUMMATION

As the Biden Administration comes to a close, federal agencies are accelerating funding distribution from the Inflation Reduction Act, especially as potential rollbacks threaten the vitality of such programs. The upcoming 2025 energy agenda will be shaped as President-elect Trump takes the White House: expect a Trump Administration to prioritize American energy production and regulatory rollbacks. Leadership shifts in the aforementioned energy-relevant congressional committees could significantly influence the future of permitting form legislation, federal land use, and energy tax.

HEALTH

OV ERVIEW

Republicans have taken majority control of the Senate, but below the 60-vote threshold for a ﬁlibuster-proof majority. As a result, comprehensive partisan accomplishments in health could be diﬃcult to achieve.

The primary Senate health authorizing committees – Committee on Finance and Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions (HELP) – could examine additional policies to reduce prescription drug prices, reform the Medicare reimbursement system for physicians and other clinicians and address the growth of the 340B Drug Pricing Program among other issues. The Finance Committee will also play a critical role when Congress must act to address the federal debt limit later in 2025. Additionally, the Finance Committee could contend with the increase in Medicare and Medicaid spending and explore possible policy solutions.

A Republican-led Senate will be an obstacle for Democrats to achieve their top health-related tax priority: extending the enhanced advanced premium tax credits (eAPTCs) that were first established as part of the American Rescue Plan Act and later extended by the Inflation Reduction Act. The enhanced premium subsidies will expire on Dec. 31, 2025, coinciding with the expiration of many tax benefits contained in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, also known as the Trump tax reform law.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

 President-elect Trump will work to undo Biden Administration policies. With Republicans on track to control both chambers of Congress, the Trump Administration’s policies will go largely unchecked.

 Committee leadership on authorizing committees will not change signiﬁcantly but seniority factors could shake up Senate HELP Committee Leadership.

 Entitlement and discretionary spending and health care costs will be under the microscope, as Republicans scrutinize health-related subsidies, provider payments, and public health programs.

In the House, a Republican majority will continue its focus on Medicare physician reimbursement reforms, site neutral payment policies, access to care in underserved communities, reform of the National Institutes of Health (NIH) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and reform of the 340B Drug Pricing Program, among other policies. Republicans will prioritize policies in the aforementioned areas that can rein in federal Medicare and Medicaid spending, which could have signiﬁcant implications for provider reimbursements.

Protecting the recent Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization Supreme Court decision, which ruled there was not a constitutional right to abortion, is also a priority item for Republicans, and will continue to be an issue of strong partisan disagreement. House Republicans are also expected to conduct thorough oversight of other social issues, such as gender-aﬃrming care.

ADMINISTRATION

President-elect Trump is likely to revisit policies to rein in health care spending by increasing price transparency, reducing hidden health care costs, and refusing to subsidize low value health care. His Administration will also prioritize health policies that keep health care decision making local, ensuring patients and their doctors are in control of a patient’s treatment plan. As part of that initiative, the

President-elect is likely to oppose any continuation of enhanced subsidization of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) exchange plans, which his allies criticize for being too expensive and ineffective. Finally, Presidentelect Trump will seek to undo the Biden Administration policies on reproductive rights and gender-affirming care for minors.

As of November 14, President-elect Trump has announced Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., a vaccine skeptic who ran unsuccessfully for President, as his nominee for Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS).

SENATE COMMITTEE ON FINANCE

The top leaders of the Finance Committee are expected to remain the same but will swap positions under the Republican-controlled Senate. Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID) will assume the Chair position and lead the Committee for the ﬁrst time, while Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR) will move to the Ranking Member role. With the demotion to the minority, the Democrats could lose at least two seats on the Committee. The retirements of Sens. Ben Cardin (D-MD), Tom Carper (D-DE), and Debbie Stabenow (D-MI), plus the resignation of Bob Menendez (D-NI) mean Democrats could add two new members. Sens. Gary Peters (DMI) and Raphael Warnock (D-GA) are among the potential contenders for the open seats. Republicans did not lose any Committee members and will gain at least two seats in the majority.

Sen. Crapo will oversee the Committee at a pivotal time. He will prioritize conservative-leaning policy proposals to reduce health care costs for consumers and patients. Rather than extending the enhanced premium tax credits, Republicans could focus on tax-advantaged arrangements to expand access to affordable health coverage, for example. As Chair, Sen. Crapo will lead Senate Republicans in scrutinizing the potential downstream impact of Medicare prescription drug price negotiation on Medicare Part D premiums paid by beneficiaries. In addition, the Committee could take a deep dive into federal Medicaid spending, potentially revisiting how states finance their share of Medicaid supplemental payments to providers. Sen. Crapo could consider legislative efforts to address growing concerns around cybersecurity standards for health care providers and other stakeholders critical to the health care delivery and coverage system.

Sens. Crapo and Wyden will preserve the Finance Committee’s track record of bipartisanship on longstanding priorities, such as ensuring access to care in rural communities and supporting rural health care providers. The Committee could build off its bipartisan white paper on physician payment reform by offering legislative proposals that seek to streamline Medicare’s reimbursement system for clinicians and improve the care provided to seniors with chronic health conditions. Sens. Crapo and Wyden would likely continue their partnership to stave off scheduled cuts to Medicaid disproportionate share hospital (DSH) funding. Behavioral health and substance use is another area where the Republican and Democratic sides are broadly aligned.

SENATE COMMITTEE ON HEALTH, EDUCATION, LABOR, AND PENSIONS

Current Ranking Member Bill Cassidy (R-LA) will be the next Chair of the Committee, while Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), the current Chair, will move to the Ranking Member position.

Republicans potentially could pick up three new Committee members by moving to the majority and replacing the retiring Sen. Mike Braun (R-IN). Sens. Josh Hawley (R-MO), Cynthia Lummis (R-KY), and Rick

Scott (R-FL) are some of the senators who could be in line to join the Committee. One slot may open on the Democratic side to replace Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA), pending the results of the recount.

A physician by training, Sen. Cassidy is widely considered a bona ﬁde health policy wonk and the 119th Congress would be his ﬁrst opportunity to lead a congressional committee that oversees a broad array of federal health issues. A Cassidy-led Committee would attempt to tackle many health policy challenges, especially those related to lowering health care costs. A top priority for Sen. Cassidy would be examining the 340B Drug Pricing Program. As Chair, he could work to develop and advance comprehensive 340B legislation to address the program’s growth and how participating entities use the savings generated to further patient care.

Additionally, Sen. Cassidy would likely assert the Committee’s oversight of HHS agencies, including the NIH, FDA, and HRSA. Chair, Cassidy would be able to advance policy proposals contained in the white paper he released earlier this year on how to improve and modernize the NIH. Cassidy could wield the Committee gavel to further examine “culture war” concerns in federal policies, such as diversity, equity, and inclusion practices in the NIH and other health agencies, and gender-affirming care services offered by providers that receive federal funds. The HELP Committee could work in a bipartisan manner to further address the role of pharmacy benefit managers in raising prescription drug prices. Republicans and Democrats would likely continue their joint efforts to address health workforce shortages and ensure adequate funding for community health centers.

HOUSE COMMITTEE ON ENERGY AND COMMERCE

In the House, the health care portfolio is divided between the Committee on Energy and Commerce and the Committee on Ways and Means. With Republicans maintaining the majority in the House, there will be only one major change among the leadership of the two health care committees. Current Chair of the Energy and Commerce Committee Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-WA) is retiring at the end of the 118th Congress, setting up a race for the top spot of the Committee. Rep. Brett Guthrie (R-KY) and Rep. Bob Latta (R-OH) are both vying to replace her. At time of publication, it appears Rep. Guthrie may have the edge. If he succeeds, it will set oﬀ a three-man race to replace him as Chair of the Subcommittee on Health Reps. Morgan Griﬃth (R-VA), Buddy Carter (R-GA), and Gus Bilirakis (R-FL) are all rumored to be interested in the gavel. If Rep. Guthrie is unsuccessful, he will remain Chair of the Health Subcommittee.

As Chair, Rep. Guthrie would likely focus on policies to address critical health care needs, such as the longterm ﬁnancial viability of both Medicare and Medicaid, transparency in health care spending, the sustainability of existing physician payment policies, drug costs, the 340B drug pricing program, and Medicaid disproportionate share hospital (DSH) cuts. Additionally, if it is not addressed in the lame duck, Rep. Guthrie would likely focus some of the Committee’s time on legislation to extend telehealth waivers. In addition to Medicare and Medicaid, the Energy and Commerce Committee also has jurisdiction over the FDA, NIH and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Rep. Guthrie is likely to continue the early work of Chair Rodgers to restructure the NIH, although whether he would follow the NIH framework published earlier in 2024 by the current Chair remains unclear.

Rep. Pallone will continue to lead Democrats as the Ranking Member of the Committee. Rep. Pallone will be charged with leading the Democratic eﬀort to ensure that Medicare and Medicaid payment reforms do not result in losses in patient access to care. Energy and Commerce Democrats will also continue to voice their support for policies that drive health equity, promote maternal health, and protect the reproductive rights of women.

At the Ways and Means Committee, there will be no changes at the top of the dais as both current Chair Jason Smith (R-MO) and Ranking Member Richard Neal (D-MA) will maintain their leadership positions. Chair Smith is a strong advocate for increasing access to care across rural America. As such, Ways and Means Republicans will continue to push for legislation to address physician payment reform, specifically the Medicare Access and CHIP Reauthorization Act (MACRA) and its impact on providers in rural health care settings. The Committee will be largely focused on expiring tax provisions in 2025, and as part of that exercise, will certainly question the need for continuing certain health care tax provisions subsidizing enrollment in the Affordable Care Act (ACA) and will call for oversight of certain ACA programs. The Committee will also continue its work to increase the use of Health Savings Accounts and other taxpreferred health tools. Finally, Committee Republicans will join Energy and Commerce Republicans in legislative efforts to continue telehealth policies. Ways and Means Democrats will push for maintaining the ACA enhanced subsidies and resist any significant payment reforms that could jeopardize patients’ access to care. In one area of possible bipartisanship, Members on both sides of the aisle should be able to work together to tackle physician payment reform, ensuring a strong pipeline of future clinicians to care for an aging population.

SENATE COMMITTEE ON APPROPRIATIONS SUBCOMMITTEE ON LABOR, HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES, EDUCATION, AND RELATED AGENCIES

The current leaders of the Senate Committee on Appropriations Subcommittee on Labor, Health and Human Services, Education, and Related Agencies (Labor-HHS) will swap positions with Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV) becoming the Subcommittee Chair and Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) becoming the Subcommittee Ranking Member. During ﬁscal years 2024 and 2025, the leaders of the Subcommittee worked in a bipartisan manner and hopes are high that this will continue in the 119th Congress. The Subcommittee has found bipartisan cooperation on issues such as substance use, mental health, child care, biomedical research, cancer research, and women’s health, including maternal mortality. Chair Capito will also continue her focus on rural health care access and delivery and Alzheimer’s research. With Republicans in control of the Subcommittee, there will be an opening for at least one new Republican member. There will likely not be signiﬁcant changes on the Democratic side, considering Sen. Joe Machin (I-WV) did not run for reelection.

HOUSE COMMITTEE ON APPROPRIATIONS SUBCOMMITTEE ON LABOR, HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES, EDUCATION, AND RELATED AGENCIES

In the House Labor-HHS Subcommittee, Rep. Robert Aderholt (R-AL) will likely remain Chair, and Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-CT) will remain Ranking Member. House Republicans are expected to continue to seek cuts to the Subcommittee’s allocation and to support policy riders related to DEI, abortion, and transgender health care. They might also continue eﬀorts to restructure the National Institutes of Health as laid out in the House version of the ﬁscal year 2025 Labor-HHS bill. House Democrats will continue to be on the defensive, working to protect public health and education funding. Two members of the House Labor-HHS Subcommittee will not return to the 119th Congress – Reps. Jake LaTurner (R-KS) and Barbara Lee (D-CA) –leaving open seats for new members to join.

GENERAL SUMMATION

With a Republican sweep, Republicans are likely to seek to undo Biden Administration policies especially related to reproductive health and social determinants of health. Republicans will also likely prioritize conservative-leaning policy proposals to address health care costs, reduce spending on Medicaid and Medicare, and oppose enhanced subsidization of the ACA exchange plans. Democrats will push back against Republican health policies, likely limiting the number of bipartisan accomplishments.

HOMELAND SECURITY & IMMIGRATION

OVERVIEW

Few issues have dominated the 2024 election cycle like immigration and border security. Moreover, few issues separate Democrats and Republicans more than the respective policy positions surrounding immigration and border security. Nevertheless, as the 119th Congress gavels in on Jan. 3 – and a new Administration coming in on Jan. 20 –homeland security will remain a top policy issue and a priority across both parties. With the likelihood of a Republican trifecta in the White House and across both chambers of Congress, expect a very vigorous approach towards homeland security, immigration, and border security in 2025.

ADMINISTRATION

KEY TAKEAWAYS

 Border security will continue to be a top priority in the 119th Congress.

 Under a second Trump Administration, expect a very hardline approach to immigration policies, including, but not limited to, mass deportation of undocumented migrants.

President-elect Donald Trump campaigned on a hardline, aggressive approach to immigration, border security, and homeland security. His second Administration is expected to prioritize reinstating the core border policies from his ﬁrst term, including reactivating “Remain in Mexico,” completing the border wall, expanding military presence at the border, ending sanctuary cities, and initiating extensive deportation operations that could be unprecedented in scale. For reference, in late 2018 to early 2019, Trump shut down the government over a dispute with Congress regarding DHS border wall funding, a hardline stance he is likely to maintain in seeking border security policies during a second term. Homeland security has been a cornerstone of Trump’s reelection campaign, and substantial shifts in immigration and border policy are widely anticipated.

At President-elect Trump has nominated South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem to be Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security. Further, President-elect Trump has selected immigration hawk, Stephen Miller to be his Deputy Chief of Staﬀ for Policy and Homeland Security Advisor. President-elect Trump has also selected former Acting Director of the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) Tom Homan to be the Trump Administration’s “border czar.” Both Mr. Miller and Mr. Homan will play a signiﬁcant role in crafting President-elect Trump’s immigration policies, including the execution of mass detention and deportation of undocumented immigrants.

SENATE HOMELAND SECURITY AND GOVERNMENTAL AFFAIRS COMMITTEE (HSGAC)

HSGAC shares jurisdiction of homeland security with the Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation (CS&T) and the Committee on Judiciary. The CS&T Committee’s jurisdiction over homeland security extends to congressional oversight over the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), the U.S. Coast Guard, and the Transportation Security Administration (TSA). With Republicans taking control of the Senate, expect FEMA to be under heavy scrutiny following a historic hurricane season and the political turmoil surrounding FEMA’s funding and recovery eﬀorts. Under Republican control next Congress, current

Ranking Member Rand Paul (R-KY) is expected to serve as the chair of HSGAC and the current Chair, Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI), will likely serve as the Ranking Member, though there is a chance he may pursue a leadership role within the Committee on Appropriations instead. There were a few members who were up for reelection in the 2024 cycle, including Sens. Jacky Rosen (D-NV), Rick Scott (R-FL), and Josh Hawley (RMO), all of whom won reelection. There are also a few departures on the committee with Sens. Laphonza Butler (D-CA) and Mitt Romney (R-UT) retiring at the end of this term.

SENATE COMMITTEE ON COMMERCE, SCIENCE, AND TRANSPORTATION

Current Ranking Member Ted Cruz (R-TX) is expected to be Chair next Congress; however, should Sen. John Thune (R-SD) lose the race for Republican leader, he may challenge Sen. Cruz for the chairmanship. On the Democratic side, expect current Chair Maria Cantwell (D-WA) to move into the Ranking Member role. Within the Subcommittee on Aviation Safety, Operations, and Innovation, which has jurisdiction over TSA, expect Sens. Tammy Duckworth (D-IL) and Jerry Moran (R-KS) to remain in Subcommittee leadership. The Subcommittee will see one retirement at the end of the year, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ), and saw one loss on election night, Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT).

SENATE COMMITTEE ON JUDICIARY

With the new Republican majority in the Senate, Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) is expected to retake the Judiciary Committee gavel, a role he previously held from 2015 to 2019. This change would likely lead current Ranking Member Lindsey Graham (R-SC) to step down from Judiciary Committee leadership to assume the chair of the Senate Banking Committee. Meanwhile, current Committee Chair Dick Durbin (DIL) is anticipated to continue in a leadership role on the Committee, serving as Ranking Member in the 119th Congress. As a result of the Senate Majority Leader’s race going to Sen. John Thune (R-SD), leadership on the Senate Judiciary Subcommittee on Immigration, Citizenship, and Border Safety is like to remain the same with current Ranking Member John Cornyn (R-TX) becoming Chairman of the Subcommittee and current Subcommittee Chair Alex Padilla (D-CA) transitioning to Ranking Member of the Subcommittee.

HOUSE COMMITTEE ON HOMELAND SECURITY

In the House, as in the Senate, jurisdiction over DHS is split between the House Committee on Homeland Security, the House Committee on the Judiciary, and the Transportation and Infrastructure Committee. With the Republicans likely retaining control of the House, current leadership will also presumably remain the same with Rep. Mark Green (R-TN) and Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-MS) serving as Chair and Ranking Member, respectively. Regardless of who controls the House, issues that will likely continue in the Homeland Security Committee will be border security, speciﬁcally border wall construction, continued emphasis on enhancing cybersecurity, and FEMA funding.

HOUSE COMMITTEE ON THE JUDICIARY

In the House, as in the Senate, jurisdiction over DHS is split between the House Committee on Homeland Security and the House Committee on the Judiciary. For an in-depth analysis of FEMA-related issues, refer to the Transportation and Infrastructure (T&I) section, which details the 2024 electoral impact on the House T&I Committee. The House Judiciary Committee, responsible for immigration matters, is expected to maintain its current leadership regardless of the election results. With Republicans likely keeping the majority, Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) is expected to continue as Chair, while Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-NY) will likely

remain as Ranking Member; however, Rep. Jordan may mount a leadership bid to unseat Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-LA) from his role leading the House Republican Conference.

HOUSE COMMITTEE ON THE JUDICIARY

The House Judiciary Subcommittee on Immigration Integrity, Security, and Enforcement is responsible for immigration and border policy. With Republicans expected to retain the majority, current Subcommittee Chair Tom McClintock (R-CA) is likely to continue in his role, along with Ranking Member Pramila Jayapal (D-WA).

SENATE COMMITTEE ON APPROPRIATIONS SUBCOMMITTEE ON HOMELAND SECURITY

With Republicans gaining control of the Senate, current Ranking Member Katie Britt (R-AL) is expected to assume the role of Subcommittee Chair in the 119th Congress, while current Chair Chris Murphy (D-CT) is anticipated to become Ranking Member. Sen. Joe Manchin (I-WV), a member of the Subcommittee, will be retiring at the end of this Congress. Three other Subcommittee members were in cycle this year. Sens. Deb Fischer (R-NE) and Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) won; Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) lost his race. Under the new Republican majority, the leadership on SAC-HS may be current Ranking Member Katie Britt (R-AL) taking over as subcommittee chair; however, appropriations committee and subcommittee assignments are dependent upon the actions of Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and Full Committee Ranking Member Sen. Susan Collins (D-ME). Minority Leader McConnell has indicated that he may entertain taking the full committee chair role or chair of a subcommittee in the 119th Congress which could lead to a realignment of positions across the committee. In addition, the departure of some current members of SAC for positions in the Trump Administration would create a trickledown eﬀect that would impact several SAC chair positions However, if there is no drastic re-alignment within the leadership of the various subcommittees, it is presumed Sen. Britt will become Chair of SAC-HS if Republicans take back the Senate.

HOUSE APPROPRIATIONS SUBCOMMITTEE ON HOMELAND SECURITY

Earlier this year, Rep. Lauren Underwood (D-IL) replaced Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-TX) as the top Democrat on the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Homeland Security due to his legal issues. With Republicans likely to secure a House majority, Rep. Underwood is expected to remain as Ranking Member, while current Chair Mark Amodei (R-NV) may continue as the lead Republican on the Subcommittee, although there may be some movement among the Republican “Cardinals” overseeing appropriations. The Subcommittee will only have one retirement at the end of this year, Rep. David Trone (D-MD), while Rep. Dan Newhouse’s (RWA) race has yet to be called.

The Subcommittee is likely to focus on major and contentious issues in the 119th Congress, including border wall funding and the appropriate number of detention beds for Immigration and Customs Enforcement. For upcoming appropriations related to homeland security, immigration, and border security, keep an eye on the House and Senate Appropriations Subcommittees on Commerce, Justice, Science, and Related Agencies (overseeing the Executive Oﬃce for Immigration Review and the immigration court system), State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs (addressing the Safe Mobility Oﬃce and global migration issues), and Labor, Health and Human Services, and Education (handling matters related to unaccompanied migrant minors).

GENERAL SUMMATION

Expect seismic shifts in U.S. immigration, border security, and homeland security policy as a result of the 2024 elections. The hardline approach of President-elect Trump and his administration, as well as a Republican Congress, will focus sharply on the U.S. southern border, including funding of the border wall.

INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS & TRADE

OVERVIEW

Foreign policy priorities are expected to be contentious during the 119th Congress. The number of geopolitical hotspots is expanding, including China, Taiwan, Ukraine, Haiti, Israel, Iran, Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Sudan, Ethiopia, North Korea, Russia, and the Greater Horn of Africa. As global challenges continue to mount, U.S. foreign policy and engagement will remain multifaceted, encompassing trade, foreign assistance, and efforts to counter non-democratic influences while maintaining global leadership and creating market opportunities for U.S. businesses throughout the world. Policymakers will likely continue bipartisan efforts to manage trade tensions with China, address vulnerabilities in the global supply chain, and protect U.S. workers and industries to foster economic growth and competitiveness. Reforms to meet modern challenges – such as digital trade, intellectual property, and environmental standards – will be a key focus for lawmakers. Both parties may also consider bipartisan legislation to strengthen domestic manufacturing and reduce U.S. reliance on foreign suppliers and imports.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

 FY25 Foreign Assistance Appropriations bill awaits resolution in lame duck session.

 New Secretary of State and National Security Team.

 The global economic forecast is projected to hold steady at 3.2% growth, but outlook remains subdued by historical standards.

 Potential trade insecurity due to rising geopolitical tensions and new Administration policies pose uncertainty to the global economy.

Republican priorities will likely consist of isolating and countering Chinese and Russian malign inﬂuence, supply chain resilience, and support of the Trump Administration’s actions on trade. Republicans will likely also push to hold NATO Member Countries accountable for increasing their defense spending as a percentage of GDP. There will also continue to be disagreement on Ukraine, particularly concerning continued or sustained funding; however, there seems to be a consensus that Ukraine should formulate a decisive strategy to quickly end the war. Democratic priorities will consist of strengthening alliances and partnerships with European and Indo-Paciﬁc partners to counter China and Russia, promoting trade policies that align with climate and equity goals, and oversight of the Trump Administration’s action on trade.

Over the course of the 119th Congress, there are various trade agreements and multilateral alliances that should be addressed: the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) is set to expire at the end of fiscal year 2025 and the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is set for a likely review process in 2026. In the 118th Congress, legislation stalled that would have addressed abuses of the de minimis system – which allows shipments valued at $800 or less to avoid tariffs and undergo expedited inspection. If this discussion continues to stall in the lame duck session at the end of 2024, then the debate will continue into the next Congress. Additionally, we may see an effort to counter China’s growing economic influence in the developing world with bipartisan collaboration to reauthorize the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) and the Miscellaneous Tariff Bill (MTB). GSP and MTB, both of which expired at the end of 2020, provide duty-free treatment to goods from designated beneficiary countries and could be used to address U.S. national security interests and long-term geopolitical implications. This is another package that has remained stalled, and if not addressed in the lame duck session, will be a central part of the trade agenda

next Congress. Eﬀorts to increase digital trade protections for U.S. workers and companies stalled in the 118th Congress; however, it is expected that there will be bipartisan eﬀorts to reposition the U.S. as the global leader in digital trade to combat foreign adversaries that use exploitative trade practices, digital surveillance, and censorship.

ADMINISTRATION

As President-elect Donald Trump prepares to reenter the White House for his second term as President, it is expected that the Trump Administration will continue its “America first” approach to foreign policy and trade. Specifically, the Administration will center their focus on unilateral actions, reductions in the trade deficit, protections for U.S. industries, aggressive negotiation tactics with foreign adversaries through tariffs, and reducing U.S. foreign assistance funding and a reduction of collaboration with international and multilateral organizations such as the United Nations and unilateral withdrawal from international agreements such at the climate accords. As in his first term, President-elect Trump is also likely to push for bilateral agreements and modifications wherever possible, as opposed to the multilateral agreements favored by some trade policy specialists. On the campaign trail, President-elect Trump has suggested measures as broad as a 20% universal tariff on all products imported into the U.S., a 60% tariff on all imports from China, and a 2,000% tariff on automobile imports from Mexico. It is not yet clear which (and to what extent) of these measures may be adopted as described early in the first hundred days of the new Administration, but it is reasonable to anticipate a continued focus on sustained, forward-leaning approach to tariffs both as a matter of policy and potentially as an enhanced source of federal revenues.

The Trump Administration is expected to continue this unilateral approach to address conﬂicts with adversary countries like China, Russia, and Iran. The Administration is likely to continue advocating for the reshoring of manufacturing to reduce U.S. dependency on foreign supply chains, particularly that of China. In a second term, the Trump Administration will continue to pressure NATO allies to increase their defense spending from 2% of GDP to 3% to provide the capabilities needed to implement NATO’s regional defense plans. Regarding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Administration is likely to encourage Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to negotiate a near-term cease ﬁre, or risk losing U.S. aid, and urge Russian President Vladimir Putin to make a deal with Ukraine or face increased aid to Ukraine including advanced weaponry. In the Middle East, the Trump Administration is expected to increase pressure on Iran through economic and diplomatic isolation and increase military hits on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

SENATE COMMITTEE ON FOREIGN RELATIONS

With Republicans set to retake control of the Senate, leadership of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations (SFRC) will also switch control from Democrats to Republicans. Sen. Jim Risch (R-ID) is expected to remain the top Republican on the Committee and will serve as Chair. Due to the retirement of Sen. Ben Cardin (D-MD), Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) will become the top Democrat on the Committee and serve as Ranking Member. The changes in SFRC leadership in the 119th Congress will see more cordial dynamics between the SFRC Chair and Ranking Member. This relationship will be crucial for the President as he seeks to secure conﬁrmation of vital cabinet and diplomatic roles, including the Secretary of State, various deputy and undersecretaries, the Ambassador to the United Nations, Administrator of the U.S. Agency for International Development, CEO of the Millennium Challenge Corporation, CEO of the International Development Finance Corporation, President of the Export-Import Bank of the U.S., as well as other ambassadorial and diplomatic positions.

The composition of the SFRC roster will change, as Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) has been nominated to be Secretary of State Sen. Bill Hagerty (R-N) has also been ﬂoated to lead the Departments of Commerce or Treasury or serve as U.S. Trade Representative. In addition to Sen. Cardin, two other members will be leaving Congress at the end of this session, Sens. George Helmy (D-NJ) and Mitt Romney (R-UT). Four other members were up for election this cycle and won their reelects: Sens. John Barrasso (R-WY), Ted Cruz (RTX), Tim Kaine (D-VA), and Chris Murphy (D-CT).

SENATE COMMITTEE ON FINANCE

Sens. Mike Crapo (R-ID) and Ron Wyden (D-OR) are expected to remain in their respective party’s leadership on the Senate Committee on Finance with Sen. Crapo serving as Chair and Sen. Wyden serving as Ranking Member. On the Subcommittee on International Trade, Customs, and Global Competitiveness, Sens. John Cornyn (R-TX) and Tom Carper (D-DE) will likely stay on as the top Republican and Democrat, respectively.

HOUSE COMMITTEE ON FOREIGN AFFAIRS

Due to House Republican Conference rules, Rep. Michael McCaul (R-TX) is term-limited as the top Republican on the House Committee on Foreign Aﬀairs (HFAC) and has decided not to request a waiver to pursue another term at the helm. Reps. Ann Wagner (R-MO), HFAC Vice Chair, and Joe Wilson (R-SC), Middle East Subcommittee Chair, have both thrown their hats into the race for the top Republican spot on HFAC. Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-NY) is slated to continue serving as the top Democrat on HFAC and will serve as Ranking Member.

HOUSE COMMITTEE ON WAYS AND MEANS

Reps. Jason Smith (R-MO) and Richard Neal (D-MA) are expected to remain in their party’s leadership on the House Committee on Ways and Means with Rep. Smith serving as Chair and Rep. Neal serving as Ranking Member. On the Subcommittee on Trade, it is expected that Rep. Adrian Smith (R-NE) remains the Subcommittee’s top Republican and serves as Chair. There will be a succession in Democratic leadership with the retirement of Rep. Earl Blumenauer (D-OR). It is possible that Rep. Linda Sanchez (D-CA) may choose to serve as Ranking Member for the Subcommittee on Trade in the 119th Congress, though at this time there are many considerations, so it remains to be seen how the Subcommittee selection plays out.

SENATE COMMITTEE ON APPROPRIATIONS SUBCOMMITTEE ON STATE, FOREIGN OPERATIONS, AND RELATED PROGRAMS

The Subcommittee will continue under the leadership of Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and Chris Coons (DDE), who are expected to swap their respective roles as Chair and Ranking Member. The only member on the Subcommittee up for reelection this cycle was Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT), who won his race.

SENATE COMMITTEE ON APPROPRIATIONS SUBCOMMITTEE ON COMMERCE, JUSTICE, AND SCIENCE, AND RELATED PROGRAMS

On the Republican side, Sen. Jerry Moran (R-KS) is expected to be the next chair. On the Democratic side, due to the Murphy rule, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) cannot remain in the top Democratic role as ranking member. It is possible that either Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI) or Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) could move into the top slot; however, this will depend on how leadership changes across other committees and subcommittees play out. The two Subcommittee members up for election this cycle, Sens. Deb Fischer (R-NE) and Martin Heinrich (D-NM), both won their reelects. Sen. Joe Manchin (I-WV) will be retiring at the end of the year.

HOUSE COMMITTEE ON APPROPRIATIONS SUBCOMMITTEE ON STATE, FOREIGN OPERATIONS, AND RELATED PROGRAMS

The Subcommittee will see some changes in makeup next Congress with the retirement of Rep. Barbara Lee (D-CA), Democratic leadership on the Subcommittee will change. It is expected that Rep. Grace Meng (DNY) will take over as Ranking Member, while Rep. Mario Diaz Balart (R-FL) will remain the top Republican on the SFOPS Subcommittee, serving as Chair. Two Republican Subcommittee members will not be returning next Congress, with Rep. Jake LaTurner (R-KS) retiring at the end of the year and Rep. Jerry Carl (R-AL) losing his primary to Rep. Barry Moore (R-AL).

HOUSE COMMITTEE ON APPROPRIATIONS SUBCOMMITTEE ON COMMERCE, JUSTICE, AND SCIENCE, AND RELATED PROGRAMS

On the Subcommittee, Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-PA) lost his reelection. His likely successor as top Democrat on the Subcommittee will potentially be Rep. Joe Morelle (D-NY). Former Committee Chair, Rep. Hal Rogers (R-KY), could remain the top Republican on the Subcommittee. One member of the Subcommittee, Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger (D-MD), is retiring at the end of the year.

GENERAL SUMMATION

Foreign policy will be a prominent topic for the Trump] Administration and the 119th Congress. Due to changes in leadership and dynamics on SFRC, there will be more bipartisanship around the appointment of critical diplomatic positions. Multiple trade alliances, programs, and treaties should be addressed over the next Congress including, AGOA, USMCA, FTAs, GSP, MTB, and the de minimis system. The Trump Administration will have to work through a divided Congress to ensure that the U.S. is equipped to respond to the ever-growing list of geopolitical hotspots.

TAX & DEBT LIMIT

OV ERVIEW

The incoming 119th Congress is likely to be extremely active on tax and related ﬁscal policy, thanks largely to more than $4 trillion in tax policy scheduled to expire at midnight on Dec. 31, 2025. Driven largely by expirations from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA), notable tax expirations include rate reductions for virtually every tax bracket; the Section 199A "pass-through" deduction; TCJA's expanded Child Tax Credit; alternative minimum tax relief; expanded estate tax exemptions; and rates for three international policies: global intangible low-taxed income (GILTI), foreign-derived intangible income (FDII), and the base erosion and anti-abuse tax (BEAT). Also expiring are around $3 trillion in revenue raisers, notably including the deduction cap on state and local taxes (SALT). Expired TCJA business tax policies debated during 2024 – whether addressed in the 2024 lame duck session or not – also ﬁgure to remain under consideration, including R&D amortization, bonus depreciation, and the EBITDA interest expense limitation.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

 More than $4 trillion in expirations from TCJA 2017 are scheduled for December, triggering a major tax debate in the 119th Congress

 2024 lame duck tax activity could help lay groundwork for the 2025 debate

 New Administration appointments will play a key role in the negotiation

 Expect a tense, intra-party negotiation over a reconciliation bill

Congress is likely to approach these expirations with an eye toward both extensions of current policy and broader reforms, with the very real possibility that at least some tax policy may be matched with new revenue-raising offsets. Most of the expiring policies were authored by Republicans, lining up a key opportunity to deliver results in response to their strong performance in the 2024 elections. To the perhaps unlikely extent that any congressional Democrats participate in this process, they will be invested in tax policy affecting a number of key constituencies, including, though not limited to, preserving Affordable Care Act Section 36B advance premium tax credit (APTC) expansions and reinstating an enhanced monthly child tax credit (CTC) expansion if possible.

Unified Republican control of government presents unique challenges and opportunities for the 2025 tax debate, similar to the original enactment of TCJA in 2017. As in that year, Republicans will seek to use reconciliation procedures to avoid the Senate's filibuster rules and enact legislation with a 50-vote majority. Although anchored by tax, this reconciliation effort could include multiple other committees of jurisdiction and become a sprawling effort, similar to the Democratic Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA). Cost constraints will be a major factor here, and the nearly $700 billion in energy tax provisions from the IRA are one of multiple possible sources of offsets for the unified Republican government.

Alongside this mix of expiring tax policies, Congress and the tax-writing committees must navigate enactment of legislation to prevent the debt limit from triggering a default, with the "X date" currently projected to hit sometime between March and August 2025. Debt limit legislation could ride within a tax or reconciliation package, independent of a tax package in spending legislation in early 2025 (or lame duck 2024), or even on its own.

ADMINISTRATION

Personnel will be a key early question for the incoming Administration on tax policy. President-elect Donald Trump will face important choices at the Treasury Department and the National Economic Council (NEC) regarding who to deputize to negotiate the Administration's priorities in the tax debate. In 2017, the first Trump Administration deputized Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, NEC Director Gary Cohn, and their teams to carry the President's priorities before Congress alongside the legislative affairs team. Identification and appointment of similar key deputies for 2025 will be a critical factor in upcoming tax negotiations with Congress.

Enactment and prioritization of campaign tax priorities is another item to monitor for the incoming Administration. New exemptions for tip and overtime taxes were hotly debated during the campaign and could be an item of focus for the Administration. Oﬀsets will also be an opportunity for the President to make a key mark on the package, with President-elect Trump having pushed against the concept of fully oﬀsetting a tax package.

SENATE FINANCE COMMITTEE

Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID) will enter his first term as Chair of the Finance Committee after a four-year stint as Ranking Member and a previous tenure as Chair of the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs. On tax, Sen. Crapo spent much of 2024 arguing against enactment of the bipartisan Smith-Wyden tax package, which would have extended several business-side TCJA expansions through 2025 alongside expansions to the CTC. Having forcefully argued that he will cut a better deal for Republicans as Chair, Sen. Crapo will face the opportunity to prove this thesis in 2025. In sharp contrast, Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR) this year enters his second decade as the lead Democrat on the Senate Committee on Finance, bringing significant personal and staff experience on both bipartisan and partisan tax efforts to bear during the coming tax debate.

Senate Leadership will also play a significant role in the upcoming tax debate during the 119th Congress. Ongoing Senate Minority Leader Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and each of the leading candidates for Majority Leader (Sens. Thune (R-SD) and Cornyn (R-TX)) are former Finance Committee members with a long and active history with the Committee; each will look to navigate the diverse priorities of their membership without a dominant majority. This process could make both leadership and marginal off-Committee members particularly influential during the 2025 tax debate, similar to the influence of former Sens. Manchin (D-WV) and Sinema (I-AZ) in 2022. Look to both moderates like Sens. Collins (R-ME) and Murkowski (R-AK) and more conservative members like Sens. Lee (R-UT), Cruz (R-TX), and Cotton (R-AR) to make their mark on the package.

HOUSE WAYS AND MEANS COMMITTEE

Returning Committee on Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith (R-MO) is one of ﬁve remaining Republican Committee members from the team that developed TCJA 2017. He enters the 2025 tax debate as perhaps the most experienced key actor on the Republican side of the aisle. Rep. Smith and his members are also relatively ahead of the curve on 2025, after spending much of 2024 focused on expiring 2025 tax policies in their "tax team" process. Look for Rep. Smith and the Ways and Means Committee to originate the initial draft of 2025 tax legislation with signiﬁcant input from the Administration, congressional leadership, the Senate, and other stakeholders.

Rep. Richie Neal (D-MA) enters his ninth year as the lead Committee Democrat, having served as Ranking Member in 2017-2019, chairing the Committee from 2019-2023, and serving as Ranking Member since. Like his Republican counterpart, Rep. Neal and his team bring experience and expertise to bear towards the 2025 debate.

GENERAL SUMMATION

Republicans will face a complex intra-party negotiation over tax policy in 2025 that is ultimately likely to yield a reconciliation bill which will be enacted either before the reconciliation vehicle deadline on September 30, 2025 (FY25), or during the early months of FY 2026, or both. While difficult at this stage to forecast specifics, it is likely that the legislation will extend many, though perhaps not all, expiring provisions from TCJA while also incorporating new tax cuts, new reforms, and some revenue-raising offsets.

TECHNOLOGY & ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

OVERVIEW

As technology and its industry become more important, so will the policy conversations around it. In recent years, there have been numerous discussions detailing the importance of innovation and competition as the U.S. aims to remain a thought leader in the tech space. There is also a growing focus on how these technologies impact communities and individuals. This includes advocating for the growing development of semiconductors and artificial intelligence (AI), while weighing the importance of data privacy and ensuring that everyone benefits from these new tools. As policy priorities for the Trump Administration and the 119th Congress come to form, tech issues including AI, Chips, data privacy, and broadband will likely remain at the forefront.

KEY TAKEAWAYS



Strategic competition with China will be top of mind and dictate how AI, data privacy, and semiconductor policy is shaped

New Republican Leadership of the House Energy & Commerce Committee/Senate Commerce Committee will launch a new era for tech policy in Congress.

Artificial intelligence will remain a key and growing policy area as lawmakers continue working towards developing an AI policy framework that maximizes innovation while ensuring the proper guardrails to protect consumers. In the House, the bipartisan AI Task Force is expected to continue its work to educate House Members of Congress on the challenges and opportunities that AI technology presents. There will also be bipartisan interest in the Senate on AI. Senate Democratic Leader Schumer (D-NY) is expected to advance an end-of-year AI package inclusive of legislation that has been reported out of committees in the Senate – and any provisions that are left on the cutting room floor will likely get rolled to the new Congress. Key proposals on the table include establishing an interagency task force to address the implications of AI on consumer privacy and civil rights; mandating disclosure requirements for AI-generated political content; protecting minors from AI features, such as child sexual abuse materials (CSAM); implementing risk management frameworks for federal agencies; and promoting AI literacy among consumers. In addition to domestic regulations, Congress is also expected to address AI with respect to U.S. competition with China.

These efforts will build on existing legislation to incentivize AI research within the U.S. and promoting competition within the industry to further propel the nation’s AI capabilities. There have been positive discussions on these issues in both chambers, which reflects a unified understanding of the need for oversight, safety, and innovation in the growing AI landscape.

Semiconductors and implementation of the 2022 CHIPS and Science Act will continue to be a bipartisan priority in the new Congress. While both sides agree that it is necessary to invest in the domestic manufacturing of semiconductors, Democrats and Republicans have deviated on CHIPS and Science Act implementation decisions. While the CHIPS and Science Act is authorized through fiscal year 2026, conversations around a “CHIPS 2.0” reauthorization package have already begun, focusing on incentives for other stakeholders in the semiconductor ecosystem. Democrats will likely seek to prioritize research and development (R&D) in a potential reauthorization given that those portions of the law were not fully funded in the 118th Congress. Additional Democratic priorities could include strengthening the semiconductor supply chain and filling workforce gaps. Republicans are unlikely to seek an immediate rollback of the CHIPS

and Science Act given that it would be an uphill battle to go after funds authorized as emergency appropriations, and there is widespread support for the importance of the semiconductor supply chain with respect to strategic competition with China. Republicans will instead likely seek to eliminate certain CHIPS and Science Act provisions that could be burdensome for companies such as requirements on childcare, labor, environment, among others. Republicans will also likely seek to increase oversight of CHIPS awards and implementation, and a second Trump Administration could thus have notable impacts on non-finalized CHIPS Act awards.

Other notable priorities for industries across the semiconductor supply chain include an upcoming tax policy overhaul and measures to counter China in technological development. In particular, 48D, the investment tax credit (ITC), and a tax credit for chip design companies are each expected to be considered in any comprehensive tax package that may materialize in 2025. Leader Schumer’s team has indicated an interest in attaching a “China sidecar” package to the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) in the lame duck that is inclusive of bipartisan China bills that have passed in the House and Senate. The NDAA includes increased restrictions on outbound investment, as well as export controls for semiconductors and other strategic and emerging technologies. The potential China sidecar could address electric vehicles, drones, the entity and sanctions lists, export controls, remote access, and biotechnology, among other issues.

Data privacy discussions will likely remain at the forefront of policy discussions on the Hill and in key industry stakeholder circles. Congress will likely renew discussions on a comprehensive privacy standard with the American Privacy Rights Act (APRA) as a starting point. As in the past, it will continue to be challenging for both sides to reach agreement on the federal preemption of state privacy laws, private right of action, and other consumer protections. Additionally, the Kids Online Safety Act (KOSA) and the Children and Teens’ Online Privacy Protection Act (COPPA 2.0) will remain relevant in privacy discussions.

Broadband and telecommunications issues will also be top of mind for lawmakers as attempts will continue to be made to revive the Affordable Connectivity Program (ACP) and potentially save the Universal Service Fund (USF). The ACP lapsed in June 2024 and efforts to fund the ACP have stalled. Policymakers have discussed adding ACP funding to a potential end-of-year spectrum auction reauthorization package or making the funding permanent, but Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), among others, has been opposed to a vehicle moving forward. Congress may also need to step in pursuant to a Supreme Court decision on the constitutionality of the USF, which provides subsidies to various broadband and high-speed internet programs. Sen. Cruz has suggested altering the Federal Communications Commission’s (FCC) authority to collect fees and subjecting the USF to the traditional appropriations process. While this idea may be appealing to conservatives, top Senate Democrats are reticent to subject the USF to the annual appropriations process where it can be relitigated year after year.

ADMINISTRATION

A second Trump Administration will likely seek to reverse a range of Biden Administration regulations and executive actions, starting with reversal of the Biden Administration’s antitrust actions, specifically within the Department of Justice and Federal Trade Commission. The GOP’s official 2024 platform explicitly calls for the repeal of President Biden’s AI Executive Order. Similarly to the Biden Administration, a Trump Administration will likely address tech policy through a national security lens, with a focus on preventing China’s ability to access U.S. data and intel. In addition to security concerns, a second Trump Administration could result in increased tariffs on goods produced in China and potential restrictions on U.S. technology exports to China. President-elect Trump has highlighted tech policies of interest including a “Digital Bill of Rights,” targeting content removal and changes to Section 230, which would limit protections for online

platforms. There is speculation that a second Trump administration would loosen restrictions to allow the U.S. to better compete with China.

Although the Trump Campaign has distanced itself from the Heritage Foundation’s “Project 2025,” some of the recommendations help frame the Conservative movement’s mindset on Big Tech. Notable areas of interest include an Executive Order based on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, a federal policy review of free speech online, and temporary lending of government-allocated spectrum. The Project also called for converting the Patent and Trade Office into a performance-based organization under the Office of Management and Budget or consolidating it with National Institute of Science and Technology, with all non-mission- critical research functions eliminated or moved to other agencies. America First Policy Institute serves as an additional preview into the Trump Administration’s approach towards Big Tech. Its policy agenda encourages tech platforms to include free speech provisions in their terms of services, calls for an age increase from 13 to 16 in COPPA and argues that tech platforms should act as common carriers in order to qualify for Section 230 protections.

Vice President-elect JD Vance adds a complicated layer to a second Trump Administration’s tech agenda due to his relationship with the industry. In his early career, Vice President-elect Vance developed close relationships with key influencers in Silicon Valley such as Peter Thiel, cofounder of PayPal, and David Sacks. Despite his close relationship with the tech industry, he has been known to push policies that aim to limit Big Tech’s influence and has praised Federal Trade Commission Chair Lina Khan for similar beliefs. He has often called for the breaking up of Google and supported the repeal of Section 230 and is likely to serve as an ally to small and medium-sized tech companies and a foe to large tech corporations.

The CHIPS and Science Act of 2022 was developed by the first Trump Administration before being signed into law by President Biden. A second Trump term would likely attempt to onshore critical supply chains, including semiconductors, to ensure national security and economic stability. The first Trump Administration previously implemented tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of Chinese goods, and President Trump has advocated for 60% tariffs on Chinese goods in his next Administration. President Trump’s “America First” policies would likely include efforts to secure strategic independence from China and incentivize domestic production capabilities. He previously expanded the Department of Commerce Entity List with additional Chinese companies, including Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation Incorporated, and imposed restrictions on exporting American technology to prevent foreign companies from obtaining certain high-risk technologies. During his 2022 Senate run, Vice President-elect Vance endorsed the CHIPS Act, which was co-authored by his opponent Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH). He secured $20 billion for Intel in Ohio and has historically advocated for a firm U.S. stance against China, highlighting the potential invasion of Taiwan as catastrophic for the semiconductor supply chain.

No formal announcements have been made, but some expect Robert Lighthizer, Linda McMahon, or Sen. Bill Hagerty (R-TN) to lead the Department of Commerce. Robert Lighthizer served as U.S. Trade Representative during the first Trump Administration and is one of few cabinet officials to remain close with President-elect Trump. He is credited with some of the most high-profile achievements during the first Trump Administration including tariffs on China and the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) renegotiations. McMahon served as Administrator of the Small Business Administration under Presidentelect Trump until 2019 but has remained engaged through her work with America First Action and America First Policy Institute. She currently serves as co-chair of the Trump transition effort. Sen. Hagerty served as ambassador to Japan under the first Trump administration and remains close to the President-elect. He has been credited for his negotiations for an updated trade deal with Tokyo and ability to stabilize President-

elect Trump’s foreign policies. He will likely be in the Cabinet in some capacity, with Secretary of Commerce floated as a potential position.

SENATE COMMITTEE ON COMMERCE, SCIENCE, AND TRANSPORTATION

Current Ranking Member Ted Cruz (R-TX) will likely seek to become Chair of the Committee but may face competition from former Committee on Commerce Chair John Thune (R-SD), should Sen. Thune lose the race for Senate Majority Leader. Sen. Thune is eligible to be Commerce Chair for another two years. Sen. Thune’s previous tenure included efforts to reauthorize and modernize American transportation systems, hold technology companies accountable to their users, and deliver increased access to broadband and 5G technology. Sen. Cruz may be more likely to focus on government agency power and tech censorship and has expressed an interest in AI and children’s online safety.

Sen. Cantwell is likely to hold onto the top Democratic spot on the Commerce Committee. She will continue to focus on passing the American Privacy Rights Act (APRA), which will present a challenge given partisan dynamics across the Hill. She is also expected to continue her focus on AI and social media safety, spectrum, and broadband access. The Committee will likely see changes in membership as a result of retirements and elections. Sens. Cruz and Deb Fischer (R-NE) were both in closely watched races but won. On the Democratic side, Sen. John Tester (D-MT) lost his reelect, and Sens. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) and Jacky Rosen (D-NV) won. In addition, Vice President-elect JD Vance currently sits on the Committee but will be departing the Senate at the end of the year.

HOUSE COMMITTEE ON ENERGY AND COMMERCE

With the retirement of current Committee Chair Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-WA), there remains some uncertainty regarding Republican leadership on the Committee. There is speculation that Rep. Bob Latta (ROH) and Rep. Brett Guthrie (R-KY), both of whom held subcommittee chairmanships in the 118th Congress, will run for full Committee leadership. Rep. Latta has said he is focused on renewing the FCC’s spectrum authority, funding to rip and replace Chinese equipment from American telecommunication networks, addressing deepfakes and robocalls, and ensuring broadband funding is deployed effectively. Rep. Guthrie’s priorities include protecting critical infrastructure and emerging technologies from foreign adversaries, beating China to 6G, streamlining permitting to increase broadband access, and renewing the FCC’s spectrum authority. Should Rep. Latta not win the leadership role, he will likely remain Chair of the Communications and Technology Subcommittee, or he could pivot to the Energy Subcommittee in the likely event that Republicans take the House. Regardless, Republicans will continue collaboration on common ground issues and further emphasize competition with China.

Rep. Frank Pallone (D-NJ) will likely remain as the Committee’s Ranking Member. Under Rep. Pallone, achieving a comprehensive data privacy standard will be top of mind for the Committee Democrats. Issues such as kids’ online safety, AI, broadband deployment, and spectrum will remain at the forefront of Democrats’ priorities. With respect to AI, the Committee will be interested in exploring its various applications across a variety of areas of jurisdiction, such as health, energy, and sustainability.

Due to retirements and members seeking other offices, 12 committee members will not return for the 119th Congress.

HOUSE COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE, SPACE, AND TECHNOLOGY (SST)

Committee Chair Rep. Frank Lucas (R-OK) has reached leadership term limits and will be moving out of the role. Rep. Brian Babin (R-TX) has expressed interest in the leadership position and will likely become committee chair. Rep. Babin is the current chair of the Space and Aeronautics Subcommittee. In this role, he has discussed the importance of AI in data collection and its impacts on efficiency, specifically looking at space exploration; at the same time, he has also discussed the threat of foreign adversaries regarding emerging technologies. Within the tech space, he has most notably expressed concerns with the implementation of the CHIPS and Science Act. He has expressed concerns that the execution is burdening local government and industry members through overregulation.

Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-CA) will likely remain ranking member on the SST Committee. She represents Silicon Valley and has previously advocated for issues related to the tech industry. She has introduced legislation to protect individuals’ data from government surveillance and protect CHIPS funding from being allocated to foreign adversaries. Oversight over CHIPS funding is likely to remain a key focus under her leadership. Additionally, Rep. Lofgren is an advocate for the National Quantum Initiative Act reauthorization and will likely champion this initiative.

SENATE COMMITTEE ON APPROPRIATIONS SUBCOMMITTEE ON COMMERCE, JUSTICE, AND SCIENCE (CJS)

With Republicans taking control of the Senate, Sen. Jerry Moran will likely become chair of the CJS Subcommittee. Current Chair Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) will likely move to the top Democratic position on Senate Foreign Relations Committee and the top Democrat on the Subcommittee is unknown at this time.

HOUSE COMMITTEE ON APPROPRIATIONS SUBCOMMITTEE ON COMMERCE, JUSTICE, AND SCIENCE

Current Chair Hal Rogers (R-KY) will likely remain in the top Republican spot on the Subcommittee on Commerce, Justice, Science, and Related Agencies. Rep. Rogers could potentially shift off the Subcommittee if there is an opening on the Defense Subcommittee, but this is unlikely. With Ranking Member Matt Cartwright (D-PA) losing his reelect bid, Rep. Joe Morelle (D-NY) is likely to be the next top Democrat on the Subcommittee due to retirements and attempts to seek other office. One member, Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger (D-MD), will be retiring at the end of the year.

GENERAL SUMMATION

Lawmakers will continue working towards an AI framework that maximizes innovation while ensuring proper guidelines for consumer protection, including a package to be pursued by Leader Schumer in the lame duck session. While there is bipartisan support for semiconductor manufacturing and investment, Democrats would prioritize R&D, workforce, and supply chain gaps in a “CHIPS 2.0” package, whereas Republicans would support increased oversight of CHIPS and Science Act awards and rolling back workforce and environmental provisions attached to CHIPS awards. Congress will restart discussions on a comprehensive privacy package including APRA, COPPA, and KOSA will remain in discussion. Revival of the ACP and potentially saving USF will be a top priority in the next Congress. A Trump Administration will likely reverse many Biden-era actions and executive orders related to technology policy and focus on policy through a lens of national security and strategic competition with China.

TRANSPORTATION & INFRASTRUCTURE

OVERVIEW

The 118th Congress passed bipartisan legislation to reauthorize Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) programs and began holding oversight and implementation hearings. Transportation and infrastructure policy priorities in the lame duck session are expected to include passing the Coast Guard and Water Resources Development Reauthorization bills and additional disaster response and recovery funding. Final passage of pipeline and railroad safety bills are unlikely in the remaining days of the lame duck session. Meanwhile, the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) and the International Longshoreman’s Association (ILA) have until Jan 15 to land a new contract or risk the resumption of a second port strike.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

 Implementation of the 2024 FAA Reauthorization Act and certiﬁcation reforms will be a focus for Congress.

 Reauthorization of surface transportation programs will drive transportation policy for the next 4-6 years or longer with the expiration of the IIJA in 2026.

 Railroad labor negotiations will continue, as well as the backlog of issues before the Surface Transportation Board (STB).

 Potential DOT Secretary nominees include Rep. Troy Nehls (R-TX), Rep. Garret Graves (R-LA), and Rep. Sam Graves (R-MO).

 The Trump Administration will seek to shift DOT programs to traditional modes and permitting reforms.

The makeup of the 119th Congress has the potential to disrupt the historically bipartisan nature of infrastructure policy with changes to Committee leadership and membership, particularly in the House of Representatives The future of surface transportation programs and the dynamics of advanced appropriations from the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) is expected to be a hotly contested debate with interest groups gearing up to protect historic highs in spending to address infrastructure deficiencies runs in direct contrast to conservative concerns of budget deficits. Anticipate the 119th Congress prioritizing the following transportation related items: FAA Reauthorization implementation; FAA certification; initiation of surface transportation reauthorization activities and oversight; regular legislative progress on Coast Guard and Water Resources Development reauthorizations (WRDA); disaster relief and resiliency; TSA funding sources; supply chain oversight; and continued work on Pipeline Safety and railroad policy.

ADMINISTRATION

The Administration will be faced with quickly developing a new surface transportation reauthorization proposal to deliver to the Hill and setting forth the pillars for Congress to work within. The IIJA set a new precedent for the scope of a surface bill due to expire and the end of 2026. All eyes in the industry are vying to preserve the funding levels established in advanced appropriations with other sectors hoping to expand it for new purposes. Some stakeholders are looking to expand the scope of infrastructure programs to address FAA deferred maintenance and the production of housing.

A Trump Administration is expected to return to its previous themes of eliminating the layers of bureaucratic red tape like environmental reviews and permitting requirements with continued investment into only core transportation infrastructure programs for highways and airports. Republican Administration candidates vying for DOT Secretary include Rep. Troy Nehls (R-TX), Rep. Garret Graves (R-LA), and Rep. Sam Graves (R-MO). With a Republican Administration, expect an outline of principals for a surface transportation proposal seeking major changes in policy and funding levels with a renewed focus on permitting reform, cuts to rail and transit funding, and the likely elimination of advanced appropriations. With labor being a catalyst that helped with his successful reelection, protections for labor policy and priorities will likely be a new addition to his platform.

SENATE COMMITTEE ON COMMERCE, SCIENCE, AND TRANSPORTATION

The oversight of transportation programs in the Senate is managed by four separate authorizing Committees that will be integral to surface transportation reauthorization due to expire in 2026. After winning reelection, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) will transition from Ranking Member to Chair of the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation in the next Congress under a narrowly Republican controlled Senate. Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-WA), the Committee’s current Chair, is likely to remain in the top Democratic spot. However, the panel subcommittees could see some turnover due to members not returning next session. Sen. Sinema (I-AZ) will be retiring while Sen. John Tester (D-MT) lost his reelection. Sens. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) and Jacky Rosen (D-NV) won their races. On the Republican side, Vice President-elect JD Vance will be departing at the end of the year. Republican leadership elections may impact the Subcommittee assignment of Sen. John Thune (R-SD), who is currently Ranking Member on the Broadband Subcommittee. The leadership of the Subcommittee on Aviation Safety, Operations, and Innovation is expected to remain under Sens. Jerry Moran (R-KS) and Tammy Duckworth (D-IL), and the same holds true for leadership stability of the Subcommittee on Surface Transportation, Maritime, Freight, and Ports held by Sens. Todd Young (R-IN) and Gary Peters (D-MI).

The Committee will focus on FAA oversight following its recent reauthorization, with attention to Boeing’s quality control issues and the adoption of uncrewed aerial systems in U.S. airspace. It will also scrutinize TSA and border security, considering funding sources for biometric screening, expanding the Global Entry program, and supporting the “One Stop Security” initiative to improve traveler processing and security. Balancing these advancements with privacy and resource allocation will be a key challenge. Expect Sen. Cruz to take a proactive stance on politically progressive issues within executive agencies if a Democrat holds the presidency.

SENATE COMMITTEE ON ENVIRONMENT AND PUBLIC WORKS

The leadership of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee that has oversight of $62.8 billion in FHWA budgetary resources will be assumed by Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV) as Chair, and Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) as ranking member. This change is likely to set up challenging debates over how climate policy feeds into the DOT programs in the next surface transportation reauthorization bill, the consolidation of FHWA competitive programs, and reforms to TIFIA transit-oriented development authorities.

SENATE COMMITTEE ON BANKING, HOUSING, AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT

The Senate Banking Committee, which directs over $14.5 billion budgetary resources for public transit, will be led by Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC). Current Chair Sherrod Brown (D-OH) lost his race to his Republican challenger Bernie Moreno Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) is a likely candidate to be ranking member next Congress. Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA) is more senior on the Committee than Sen. Warren but is expected to remain in the leadership role on the Committee on Intelligence. There will be additional changes in Committee membership as Sens. Jon Tester (D-MT), Laphonza Butler (D-CA) and George Helmy (D-NJ) as well as Vice President-elect Vance will be departing Congress at the end of the year. The Committee has produced very little legislation in the 118th Congress and struggled to develop a bipartisan product for the last surface reauthorization bill under IIJA.

SENATE COMMITTEE ON FINANCE

The Senate Finance Committee has the responsibility of generating the revenue offsets to pay for any additional expenses by the Highway Trust Fund and the Airport and Airways Trust Fund. Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID) will serve as Chair and Ranking Member will be Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR). Given that tax extenders are first on the Committee’s action items, the Committee will be off to a busy session from the first day of the 119th Congress.

HOUSE COMMITTEE ON TRANSPORTATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE (T & I)

In terms of the House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure (T&I), Rep. Rick Larsen (D-WA) is expected to remain the lead Democratic Member. The Republican Party operates under Conference rules that limits a member to six years as the top Republican on a committee, regardless of whether the term was as Chair or Ranking Member. Rep. Sam Graves (R-MO) has served as the lead Republican on T&I since 2019 (4 years as Ranking Member, 2 years as Chair). On the Republican side, current Chair Sam Graves (RMO) is seeking a waiver from the Republican Steering Committee to serve an additional two-year term as the top Committee Republican. However, Rep. Crawford (R-AR) is pursuing the top Republican Committee spot should a Graves waiver not be approved. Rep. Crawford is currently running unopposed to succeed Rep. Sam Graves. Given that Rep. Crawford serves as Chair of the Highways Subcommittee, a new Republican leader would be needed for the Highways Subcommittee.

Once the T&I Committee selects its lead Republican and Democratic member, subcommittee chair and ranking member seats will be filled. Traditionally, the Democratic Party relies on seniority and does not impose term limits. The current T&I Democratic leadership is as follows: Aviation (Rep. Steve Cohen (DTN)); Coast Guard (Rep. Salud Carbajal (D-CA)); Economic Development (Rep. Dina Titus (D-NV)); Highways (Del. Holmes-Norton (D-DC)); Railroads (Rep. Frederica Wilson (D-FL)); and Water Resources (Rep. Grace Napolitano (D-CA)). Rep. Napolitano is retired, so there is an opening in Democratic leadership on the Water Resources Subcommittee; next in seniority on the Subcommittee is Rep. John Garamendi (D-CA).

SENATE COMMITTEE ON APPROPRIATIONS SUBCOMMITTEE ON TRANSPORTATION, HOUSING , AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT, AND RELATED AGENCIES (THUD)

Potential changes to the leadership of the Subcommittee on Defense will have a trickle-down effect along both sides of the aisle. On the Republican side this could result in Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) returning to her Transportation, Housing, Urban Development, and Related Agencies (THUD) Subcommittee roots with a sustained focus on housing policy and keeping the top line strong for competitive programs essential to Maine. Alternatively, Sen. John Moran (R-KS) is well positioned to take the lead Republican position, strengthening his dominance over aviation policy, a significant industry within his state. Within Democratic leadership, the Senate flip will most likely result in Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) serving as Ranking Member of the THUD Subcommittee. Sen. Van Hollen has exhibited support for intercity passenger rail, transit, ports, community resiliency, and economic development initiatives. His position on leadership will position Maryland well to address Key Bridge funding challenges, and investments into the development of the state’s northeast corridor. Regardless of the changes in leadership, with any of these shifts, the Subcommittee is expected to continue its tradition of having a strong bipartisan culture.

HOUSE COMMITTEE ON APPROPRIATIONS SUBCOMMITTEE ON TRANSPORTATION, HOUSING , AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT, AND RELATED AGENCIES

Republican leadership changes hinge on the yet-to-be called race of Rep. Ken Calvert (R-CA). Either Rep. Calvert, Rep. David Joyce (R-OH) or Rep. David Valadao (R-CA) are expected to make a play for the THUD Subcommittee leadership. Current Committee Chair, Tom Cole (R-OK), who also served as THUD Subcommittee Chair during the 118th Congress, is expected to continue the subcommittee’s recent focus on addressing the needs of American Indians and Alaskan Natives throughout the THUD bill, reversing decades of underinvestment regardless of which party has the majority.

Should Rep. Calvert win his reelection bid, Reps. Steve Womack (R-AR) and Mike Quigley (D-IL) will remain in THUD Subcommittee leadership. Last session, Rep. Womack’s primary focus was on transportation safety, and the needs of the trucking industry with the creation of a new $200 million truck parking program. Rep. Quigley will work to ensure reasonable funding levels for rail and transit programs, as well as the production and preservation of aﬀordable housing. Current Committee Chair Tom Cole (R-OK), who also served as THUD Subcommittee Chair during the 118th Congress, is expected to continue the subcommittee’s recent focus on addressing the needs of American Indians and Alaskan Natives throughout the THUD bill, reversing decades of under investment regardless of which party has the majority.

GENERAL SUMMATION

The 118th Congress reauthorized FAA programs and held oversight hearings, with upcoming priorities in the lame duck session focused on Coast Guard and Water Resources Development Reauthorization bills and disaster response funding. The actions on Pipeline Safety and Railroad Safety legislation are likely to be delayed, while port labor negotiations between USMX and ILA face a Jan 15 deadline to prevent a potential strike. The 119th Congress is expected to prioritize FAA implementation, surface transportation Coast Guard, and WRDA reauthorizations. Under potential future administrations, Republicans are likely to focus on reducing regulatory barriers and funding core infrastructure, while Democrats may prioritize climate initiatives, energy eﬃciency, and categorizing housing as infrastructure.

COLORADO

OVERVIEW

Democrats in Colorado had another successful election night, maintaining control of both the State Senate and House. With Gov. Jared Polis (D) entering his ﬁnal two years in oﬃce, and the governorship not on the ballot, Democrats preserved their trifecta. Ten of the 75 state races were competitive, and there will be at least 19 freshman legislators in the 76th General Assembly. The highly contested race for the 8th Congressional District has yet to be called at the time of publication. Incumbent Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D-CO) lost her seat to Republican State Rep. Gabe Evans (R-48). Colorado voters had 14 statewide ballot measures to consider and ultimately approved 10 of them.

COLORADO SENATE

KEY TAKEAWAYS

 Vice President Kamala Harris won Colorado with 54.6 percent of the votes.

 Democrats are unlikely to retain their supermajority in the Colorado House with two races heading to a recount

 Democrats were not able to secure a supermajority in the State Senate.

 Ballots measures approved by the voters will create ﬁscal constraints for budgeters.

2024 was the first time since the redrawing of district boundaries in 2021 that 18 Senate seats were up for election. Coming into election night with 23 of 35 Senate seats, Colorado Democrats needed to flip just one seat to gain a supermajority. Based on results at the time of publication, Democrats are projected to have 22 total seats at most, falling short of a supermajority. In the Senate, one of the notable topics will be potential modifications to the first-in-the-nation artificial intelligence legislation.

The race that received the most state-level super PAC donations was in Senate District 5, which covers much of the Western Slope. With Sen. Perry Will (R-05) vacating his seat to run for county commissioner, nearly $2 million was spent on this race, with $1.4 million going to current State Rep. Marc Caitlin (R-05), and the remaining $600,000 going to the Democratic challenger and small business owner Cole Buerger. Rep. Catlin managed to best Buerger by over 3,500 votes.

In Senate District 12, which is currently represented by term-limited Sen. Bob Gardner (R-12), current State Rep. Marc Snyder (D-18) ran against El Paso County Commissioner Stan VanderWerf (R). Despite the seat being historically Republican, Rep. Snyder has won and will represent District 12.

In strongly conservative Weld County, where Republican-turned-Democrat Sen. Kevin Priola (D-13) is term limited, Scott Bright (R) won the race against Brighton City Councilman Matt Johnston (D) to represent Senate District 13. Finally, in Senate District 16, incumbent Sen. Chris Kolker (D-16) was challenged by Centennial City Councilwoman Robyn Carnes (R). Carnes, who ran her campaign focused on the high cost of living, was not able to unseat Sen. Kolker, who won 52.4% of votes.

COLO RADO HOUSE

As is the case with each even-year election, all 65 seats in the Colorado House of Representatives were up for election. The Democrats entered Election Day with a supermajority in the House, holding 44 of 65 seats, but they had a tough challenge to maintain these numbers, following many close races in 2022. With two races headed to automatic recounts (but unoﬃcially called in favor of Republican candidates), House

Democrats have won at least 43 of the 65 seats. Whether or not Democrats will maintain their supermajority in the chamber will depend on the outcome of the two recounts.

In House District 16, with 72% of the vote counted, the race remains too close to call. Incumbent Rep. Stephanie Vigil (D-16) was challenged by Rebecca Keltie (R), a Navy veteran and self-described antiestablishment candidate. Rep. Vigil won in 2022 by only 710 votes, despite the district leaning Republican by three points. PAC spending on the Colorado Springs District favored Keltie ($375,000 compared to $175,000). Keltie has been unoﬃcially called as the winner, but she leads by only seven votes, triggering an automatic recount.

Republicans were hopeful to ﬂip House District 19 in Boulder County following Rep. Jennifer Parenti’s (D19)decision to drop out of her Democratic primary in June. Jillaire McMillan stepped in to take on former State Rep. Dan Woog (R-63), who was looking to return to the Capitol. Though the race has not been called oﬃcially and will head to an automatic recount, former Rep. Woog leads by 228 votes

Incumbent Rep. Tammy Story (D-25) bested former police chief George Mumma with 52.2% of the vote to retain her seat in House District 25. Rep. Story won in 2022 by one-point, leading state-level super PACs to invest around $600,000 in this race during the 2024 election cycle.

House District 43 (Douglas County) was the top seat Republicans looked to ﬂip, as incumbent Rep. Bob Marshall (D-43) won by just 405 votes in 2022. The district leans approximately seven points in Republicans’ favor, and Rep. Marshall was the only elected Democrat in Douglas County leading into Election Day. This time around, he held on to his seat, winning against Republican Matt Burcham with 51.7% of the vote.

In House District 50, incumbent Rep. Mary Young (D-50) had a rematch against Republican Ryan Gonzalez, who she beat by just 330 votes in 2022. This was the smallest margin in all legislative races in 2022, causing Republicans to focus time and eﬀorts on this race. Following a very tight race, and an extended wait, Rep. Young conceded to Gonzalez.

BALLOT INITIATIVES

Coloradans decided on 14 statewide legislative and citizen-initiated ballot measures. Topics ranged from constitutionalizing the rights to abortion and same sex marriage, to adopting a ranked choice voting system for statewide oﬃces to mandating jail time for violent oﬀenders, among others. Voters passed 10 of the statewide ballot measures.

Amendment G, which will expand veterans’ property tax exemptions to include those with unemployability status, passed with 72% of the vote, as did Amendment H, which would create an independent adjudicative board made up of citizens, lawyers, and judges to conduct judicial misconduct hearings and impose disciplinary actions.

Amendment I, which would permit a justice to deny bail to a person who is charged with ﬁrst degree murder when the judge determines there is proof the person committed the crime, passed with 69% of the vote.

Amendment J, which would repeal the language in the Colorado Constitution that deﬁnes a valid marriage as a union between one man and one woman, passed with 63% of the vote.

Amendment 79, which would place the right to abortion in the Colorado Constitution and repeal the current ban on state and local funding for abortion services, passed with 61% of the vote.

Proposition JJ, which would allow the state to keep and spend more money for water projects when sports betting tax revenue is collected above the amount previously approved by voters, passed with 75% of the vote.

Proposition KK, which would create a new tax on ﬁrearms, ﬁrearm parts, and ammunition, and uses the revenue for crime victim services, mental health services for veterans and youth, and school safety programs, passed with 54% of the vote.

Proposition 128, which would require a person convicted of certain crimes of violence to serve at least 85% of their sentence in prison before being eligible for discretionary parole or earned time reductions, and makes a person convicted of a third or subsequent crime of violence ineligible for earned time or discretionary parole, passed with 62% of the vote.

Proposition 129, which would establish the new regulated profession of veterinary professional associate as a provider of veterinary care, passed with 52% of the vote.

Proposition 130, which would require the state to provide $350 million to local law enforcement agencies to improve officer recruitment and retention and requires the state to provide a one-time $1 million death benefit to the family of each state and local law enforcement officer killed in the line of duty, passed with 53% of the vote.

Amendments K and 80, and Propositions 127 and 131, all failed. Amendment K would have moved the deadlines earlier in the calendar year for certain election ﬁlings and the publication of ballot measures in newspapers, and Amendment 80 would have created a constitutionally protected right to school choice for K-12 children and their parents. Proposition 127 would have made it illegal to hunt bobcats, lynx, and mountain lions in Colorado, but couldn’t garner enough support to pass. Proposition 131, informally known as ranked choice voting, also failed.

CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS

While neither U.S. Sens. Michael Bennet (D-CO) nor John Hickenlooper (D-CO) were up for reelection, Colorado’s eight congressional districts all had seats up for election. The most closely watched race was in the 8th Congressional District, which was a new District in 2022 and was speciﬁcally drawn to be a competitive, north Denver contest. Super PACs ﬂooded $15 million into the race for District 8. In the end, Rep. Caraveo conceded to State Rep. Evans.

Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-04) controversially left her current district in favor of the more solidly red 4th Congressional District, which was most recently held by former Republican Rep. Ken Buck, who retired earlier this year. She faced Democratic opponent Trisha Calvarese, who raised over $2.5 million ($2 million of which came from small donations). Rep. Boebert proved successful, winning more than 53% of the vote and ensuring her return to Washington. Democratic candidate Adam Frisch and Republican candidate Jeﬀ Hurd faced oﬀ in Rep. Boebert’s former 3rd Congressional District in another closely followed race. Hurd ultimately won the seat with 50% of the vote compared to Frisch’s 46.8%.

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

In 2020, President Joe Biden beat President-elect Donald Trump by 13 points. Although this margin dwindled to a mere 6-point polling lead following the televised debates this election cycle, enthusiasm for the Democratic ticket proved its strength. Vice President Kamala Harris won Colorado with 54% to President-elect Trump’s 43%, picking up all ten of Colorado’s electoral college votes.

GENERAL SUMMATION

Colorado Democrats entered election night hoping to secure supermajorities in both chambers. With two races headed to recounts, Democrats have missed the opportunity for a Senate supermajority but are holding out hope that they can hold on to their supermajority in the House. Democrats still hold signiﬁcant majorities in both chambers, leaving the powerful Joint Budget Committee with a makeup of four Democrats and two Republicans. The Colorado Legislature will gavel in on Jan. 8, 2025, and adjourn on May 7, 2025.

Notably, but expectedly, the ballot measures approved by the voters do not fully align with the priorities of the Democratic majorities. To implement these measures, the majorities in both chambers will need to reach a consensus within their own party on how to move forward, requiring negotiation and compromise.

GEORGIA

OVERVIEW

KEY TAKEAWAYS

 Republicans retained their trifecta.

 Redistricting did not change the party ratio of the Georgia Delegation.

 Redistricting created new seats, which impacted the election.

Georgia Republicans currently hold a strong majority in state government, controlling the Governorship, all statewide Constitutional offices, and both chambers of the Legislature. However, as Georgia shifts towards a more competitive political landscape, Democratic campaigns in 2024 intensified their efforts to flip traditionally Republican-held seats in the State House and Senate that were weakened by recent redistricting. In October 2023, U.S. District Court Judge Steve Jones ruled that Georgia’s redistricting maps, passed in a 2021 special session, violated the Voting Rights Act by diluting the voting power of Black voters. He ordered the maps to be redrawn by December 2023. In response, Gov Brian Kemp (R) called a special legislative session, during which the General Assembly approved new maps that added Black-majority districts, including one in Congress, two in the State Senate, and five in the State House that were approved by Judge Jones The Georgia Legislature will convene for their first year of the two-year biennium on Jan 13, 2025, and will meet for 40 non-consecutive legislative days, likely adjourning in late March or early April.

Georgia’s political climate has grown increasingly divisive, with tensions not only between Republicans and Democrats but also within party lines. Gov. Kemp and President-elect Donald Trump have been at odds since the 2020 election, when Gov. Kemp ignored President-elect Trump’s calls to convene a special session to overturn Georgia’s election results. This ongoing friction has kept Georgia in the national spotlight, along with a wave of lawsuits and election law changes. In September, a court dismissed an attempt by Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis (D) to bring election subversion charges against former President Trump. Meanwhile, controversies around Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R) and new rules proposed by the State Board of Elections have sparked bipartisan opposition from a coalition of former governors, senators, mayors, and other leaders. A central issue was the State Election Board’s proposed rule requiring hand counting of ballots by local officials on Election Day, which faced widespread criticism. On Oct. 15, a Georgia judge blocked this controversial measure, temporarily halting its implementation.

GOVERNOR

Gov. Kemp was first elected in 2018. In 2022, he faced a primary challenge from former U.S. Senator David Perdue, who was endorsed by former President Donald Trump. Gov. Kemp defeated former Sen. Perdue, setting up a rematch with his Democratic opponent from 2018, Stacey Abrams. This time, Kemp widened his margin of victory, winning 53% to Abrams’s 45%. Now, in his term-limited second term, Gov. Kemp will complete his tenure as governor before the next Gubernatorial election in 2026.

Throughout his second term, Gov. Kemp has focused on strengthening Georgia’s economy, addressing workforce needs, strengthening growth in rural areas, tackling tort reform, and continuing to crack down on gang and human trafficking activities. Speculation about Kemp’s political future has circulated widely, though he has not confirmed any plans to seek higher office.

GEORGIA SENATE

Once holding a Republican supermajority, the Georgia State Senate still maintains a strong Republican margin, with 33 seats in the 56-member chamber. All seats were up for election in 2024. The Senate is presided over by Lt. Gov. Burt Jones (R). Following court-ordered redistricting in 2023, only a few seats were considered competitive. Among these, incumbent Sen. Shawn Still’s (R-48) seat was widely seen as the most vulnerable. His rapidly-changing metro Atlanta district has an expanding immigrant population, and his Democratic challenger, Ashwin Ramaswami – a recent college graduate and computer scientist – is the son of immigrants. Sen. Still was able to keep District 48 in Republican control, winning 53% of the vote.

GEORGIA HOUSE

Ahead of the 2024 election, Republicans held a majority in Georgia’s State House with 102 seats to Democrats’ 78. All 180 seats were on the ballot this year. Speaker of the House Jon Burns (R-159) will remain in leadership with no expected challenges, and the current roster of House Republican leaders – including Speaker Pro Tempore Jan Jones (R-47), Majority Leader Chuck Efstration (R-104), Whip James Burchett (R176), and Caucus Chair Bruce Williamson (R-112) – are also likely to retain their positions. Meanwhile, Minority Leader James Beverly (D-143) announced his retirement at the end of his term, creating an opportunity for House Democrats to reshuffle their leadership.

Among the battleground seats for the 2024 election, Republicans were on the defensive in the growing and diversifying voter base in the Atlanta suburbs. Incumbents like Reps. Deborah Silcox (R-53), Matt Reeves (R99), and Scott Hilton (R-48) were seen as the most vulnerable, but all ultimately held onto their seats Additionally, Rep. Mesha Mainor (R-56), who switched parties from Democratic to Republican in 2023, ran as a Republican in the heavily Democratic District 56. As expected, District 56 was won by Democrat Bryce Berry with 83% of the vote. Freshman Rep. Ken Vance (R-132) also faced a tight race due to redistricting, ultimately losing his seat to former mayor and State Sen. Floyd Griffin (D-132). In middle Georgia, Republicans were surprised to see newcomer Noah Harbuck lose the open seat in House District 145, where he faced Democrat Tangie Herring. In the biggest upset of the night, Republican Sandy Donatucci flipped a metro Atlanta house seat previously held by Farooq Mughal (D-105). Finally, incumbent Rep. Mack Jackson (D-128) was projected to be edged out by his Republican opponent Tracy Wheeler (R). However, and perhaps by the closest margin in the Georgia elections, Rep. Jackson won by 43 votes, receiving 50.08% of the vote.

BALLOT INITIATIVES

Georgia voters had the opportunity to vote on two proposed constitutional amendments and a statewide referendum in the general election, all three of which passed (as expected) on Election Day

Ballot Question 1 authorizes the Georgia General Assembly to implement a statewide exemption from ad valorem taxes. It will create statewide uniformity similar to exemptions several counties currently have in DeKalb, Gwinnett, and Forsyth. It will also create an option for local governments and school systems to opt out and provide local governments with a new sales option for property tax relief. Voters passed Question 1 overwhelmingly, with 64.5% of the vote.

Ballot Question 2, which is a constitutional amendment, allows the state to create a separate tax court that will streamline the tax litigation appeals process by no longer requiring tax disputes to go through Fulton County Superior Court. The measure ultimately passed, receiving nearly 52% of the vote.

Ballot Question 3 will increase the personal property tax exemption from $7,500 to $20,000. Personal property, as defined in the ballot measure, includes furniture, fixtures, machinery, and other property used

in a business, as well as aircrafts and boats owned by an individual or corporation. It does not, however, include cars, trailers, or mobile homes. Similar to the other ballot measures in Georgia, Question 3 received broad support, passing with almost 63% of the vote.

CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS

U.S. SENATE

Georgia’s U.S. Senate seats are held by two Democrats, Sens. Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff, neither of whom were on the ballot in 2024. This marks a significant shift in a state that has historically been dominated by Republicans for the past two decades. Speculation is growing around whether term-limited Gov. Kemp might challenge Sen. Ossoff for the Senate in 2026.

GEORGIA CONGRESSIONAL SEATS

Georgia’s congressional delegation currently has a Republican majority, consisting of nine Republicans and five Democrats. This composition was seen as unlikely to change despite some reshuffling of seats. The redistricted maps, finalized in late 2023, resulted in changes to two districts: the 6th Congressional District, represented by Rep. Rich McCormick (R-GA), and the 7th Congressional District, represented by Rep. Lucy McBath (D-GA). The 7th District has been shifted further north, incorporating more Republican territory, while the 6th Congressional District has been redrawn to create a majority-minority voter district. As a result, this year’s election saw Rep. McBath run and win in the 6th Congressional District and Rep. McCormick run and win in the 7th. In the 3rd Congressional District, retiring Rep. Drew Ferguson (R-GA), who held a safe Republican seat, was succeeded by Republican Brian Jack, a former Trump White House staffer, who faced Democrat Maura Keller. Meanwhile, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) was easily reelected to Georgia’s 14th Congressional District with just over 64% of the vote.

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Georgia was a hotly contested election ground for the 2024 presidential race. Despite President-elect Trump’s widely publicized difficulties with Gov. Kemp, he remained popular going into Election Day in the Peach State. President-elect Trump’s advantage over Vice President Kamala Harris was consistent in the Georgia polls leading up to the 2024 race, notwithstanding the former President’s loss to President Joe Biden in 2020. Heading into Tuesday, Trump led among likely voters in Georgia by 52% to 45% in a Quinnipiac poll released Oct. 16. Democrats’ hopes that the diversification in population growth among the Atlanta suburbs would lead to new voters for Vice President Harris were squandered

GENERAL SUMMATION

As expected, Republicans maintained control of the majority of state and federal elected offices in Georgia. They are expected to continue prioritizing a business-friendly environment, focusing on tax cuts and creating new opportunities for struggling rural communities. Tort reform remains a top priority for Gov. Kemp and Republican leaders in the House and Senate, who aim to reverse Georgia’s legal climate that has led to the state being characterized as a “Judicial Hellhole.” While Democrats appear to be making strides in eroding Georgia’s Republican majority, the momentum did not translate into wins for key state offices this time

ILLINOIS

OVERVIEW

Following a successful Democratic National Convention in Chicago this year, Democrats across the State of Illinois maintained their majority at the federal and state levels. Democrats in suburban areas of the state faced the tightest races as they struggled to maintain districts that were ﬂipped in 2022. Reproductive rights, public safety, and the economy remained the top issues impacting voter decisions. Chicago residents were also tasked with electing half of the Chicago School Board, following legislation passed in 2023 to establish a fully elected school board by 2027. The Governor and other constitutional oﬃces were not up for reelection this year but will be on the ballot in 2026.

ILLINOIS SENATE

KEY TAKEAWAYS

 Democrats retained supermajorities in the Illinois House and Senate.

 Illinois incumbents in the U.S. House of Representatives retained their seats.

 Chicago residents cast ballots for the ﬁrst time to elect a portion of the Chicago School Board.

With one third of the State Senate up for reelection this year, Senate Democrats maintained their supermajority of 40-19 with all incumbents winning their districts. Incumbent Sen. Patrick Joyce (D-40) faced what was expected to be the toughest reelection campaign this year, defeating Republican Philip Nagel 56-44 in his district located in the south suburbs of Chicago. Downstate, incumbent Sen. Paul Faraci (D-52), representing Champaign, won his race against his Republican opponent.

ILLINOIS HOUSE

House Democrats are expected to maintain their supermajority with all members up for reelection this year, although the exact margin of leadership remains too close to call. In the northwest suburbs of Chicago, incumbent Rep. Marty McLaughlin (R-52) declared victory over his opponent, Maria Peterson (D), 50.4-49.6. In the western suburbs, incumbent Rep. Amy Grant (R-47) defeated her opponent, Jackie Williamson (D), with 50.4% of the vote. Freshman Rep. Sharon Chung (D-91) maintained her seat representing the Bloomington-Normal area, as did Freshman Rep. Harry Benton (D-97) from Plainﬁeld. Democrats Rick Ryan and Marti Deuter decisively won in the 36th and 45th districts respectively to replace retiring Democratic members. Amy “Murri” Briel (D-76) is also won her race to replace a retiring Democratic member with 50.5% of the vote. Appointed Rep. Brandun Schweizer (R-104) retained his seat in a close race. However, former Rep. LaToya Greenwood (D) was unable to reclaim her seat in the race against incumbent Rep. Kevin Schmidt (R-114) after her narrow 2022 loss in the East St. Louis district.

House Speaker Emanuel “Chris” Welch (D) and Senate President Don Harmon (D) are both expected to maintain their leadership positions in their respective chambers. Leadership under the party heads is expected to remain the same, with the exception of promotions to leadership to replace retiring members and the selection of new committee chairs.

CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS

Incumbents are expected to win reelection in all 17 House districts across the state, maintaining seats for 14 Democrats and three Republicans in the House. The closest race was in the 13th Congressional District, where incumbent Rep. Nikki Budzinski (D) won reelection by a slim margin. The 17th Congressional District also held a tight race with freshman Democratic Rep. Eric Sorensen narrowly defeating his Republican opponent, Joe McGraw. Reps. Bill Foster (D-IL), Lauren Underwood (D-IL), and Sean Casten (D-IL), all of whom faced close elections in previous years, were able to safely secure their seats due to updated district maps after the 2020 census. Illinois Senators were not up for reelection in 2024, but long-serving Illinois Sen. Dick Durbin will be up for reelection in 2026.

BALLOT INITIATIVES

This year, Illinois placed three advisory questions on the ballot. While these questions are not binding, they could impact future policy development in the state. Question 1 asked voters if civil penalties should be established to punish candidates who interfere with official duties of election workers. This measure passed with a vote of 89%. Question 2 asked voters if income tax should be raised by 3% on income over $1 million to provide property tax relief. 60% of voters answered yes to this question. Question 3 asked voters if health insurance plans that provide full coverage for pregnancy benefits should also cover medically assisted reproductive treatments like IVF. This measure received 72% approval.

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Vice President Kamala Harris won Illinois with 54.2% of the vote, receiving all 19 electoral votes. This outcome was not surprising, as Democratic candidates have won the state every year since 1992. However, this was the slimmest margin of victory for Democratic presidential candidates in recent years, as President Biden previously secured 57.54% of the vote 2020, and Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton secured 55.83% of the vote in 2016.

GENERAL SUMMATION

Democrats will maintain control of both the Illinois House and Senate during the upcoming 104th General Assembly. Key leadership in both chambers is expected to remain the same, with small changes anticipated in the naming of new committee chairs and the promotion of select members to leadership positions. During the upcoming Veto Session beginning Nov. 12, the General Assembly is expected to take limited action.

Prior to the inauguration and first day of the new session on Jan. 8, 2025, the Legislature is anticipated to hold a busy Lame Duck session. Although most priorities for this period have yet to be announced, they are expected to take up legislation to codify labor and environmental regulations ahead of President-elect Trump’s inauguration. Looking ahead to the spring 2025 session, the General Assembly is expected to prioritize initiatives for a balanced budget, as several large Chicago-area agencies are facing budget shortfalls after spending the remaining ARPA funding they received from the federal government.

IOWA

OVERVIEW

Republicans in Iowa maintained and expanded their power in the State. Going into Tuesday, Republicans held every congressional seat and controlled the State House. Republicans successfully defended challengers in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th U.S. House districts, and Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-IA) is leading in the 1st Congressional District, though the race has not yet oﬃcially been called. The Iowa Legislature remains ﬁrmly in Republican control. This election continued a trend from the last decade, in which Iowa has moved from a swing state with split-party control to one on which Republicans can largely rely. The Legislature will gavel in on Jan. 13, 2024.

GOVERNOR

KEY TAKEAWAYS

 The Republican trifecta in Iowa continues, with Republicans maintaining control of the State Senate, House, and congressional seats.

 Property tax reform will be top of mind for Republicans during the 2025 legislative session.

Gov. Kim Reynolds (R), who ascended to the role in 2017 following former Gov. Terry Branstad’s (R) appointment to serve as the U.S. Ambassador to China, will be up for reelection in 2026. Though she has not oﬃcially announced her intentions to seek a third term, it is widely believed she will run again.

IOWA SENATE

Twenty-ﬁve of Iowa’s 50 State Senate seats were up for reelection this year. Prior to the election, Senate Republicans held a 34-16 supermajority in the chamber. With this election, Republicans retained – and expanded – their control of the Senate. A handful of races have not yet been called but, tentatively, the new breakdown for the Senate is 35 Republicans and 15 Democrats. Of the 50 Senators, six will be new members in the upcoming General Assembly. Senate President, Sen. Amy Sinclair (R-12), won her race and has been reelected to serve in this role. Senate Majority Leader Jack Whitver (R-23) did not have an election this cycle, and has been reelected to lead the caucus. A handful of seats were ﬂipped on Election Day, unseating three incumbent Senators, including Republican Sen. Brad Zaun (R-22) and Democratic Sens. Nate Boulton (D-20) and Eric Giddens (D-38). Sen. Zaun has served in the Senate since 2005 and is the chamber’s President Pro Tem. Sens. Boulton and Giddens have served since 2017 and 2019, respectively. Note that Sens Boulton’s and Giddens’s races have not yet been called, and both are down by very small margins

IOWA HOUSE

All 100 of Iowa’s House seats were up for reelection this cycle. Republicans have controlled the House with a 64-36 majority for the last two years. As expected, Republicans maintained their control of the House, with a breakdown of 67 Republicans and 33 Democrats, though this breakdown may change as a handful of races are ﬁnalized. Three Democratic incumbents lost to Republican challengers, including Reps. Molly Buck (D-41), Sue Cahill (D-52), and Charles Isenhart (D-72). Of the 100 Representatives, 16 will be freshman members in the upcoming General Assembly, though one previously served as a state Senator and is returning to the Legislature after a two-year break. This class of new members is signiﬁcantly smaller than the last election cycle, when new members comprised one third of the House. Current House leadership includes Rep. Pat Grassley (R-57) as Speaker, Rep. Matt Windschitl (R-15) as Majority Leader, and Rep.

Jennifer Konfrst (D-32) as Minority Leader, all of whom won reelection and have been selected by their respective caucuses to remain in their leadership positions.

BALLOT INITIATIVES

Iowans voted on two constitutional amendments that were on the ballot this year, SJR 009 and SJR 2005. The first initiative, SJR 009, proposed the codification of certain voting practices already in use by the state, including a voting age of 18 rather than 21, and the ability for a 17-year-old to vote in a primary if they will be 18 years old at the time of the General Election. The second initiative, SJR 2005, proposed a clarification to the gubernatorial line of succession. It provided that if the Lieutenant Governor becomes the Governor due to the resignation, death, or permanent disability of the Governor, it creates a vacancy in the office of the Lieutenant Governor. This constitutional amendment originated after former Gov. Branstad was appointed as an ambassador to China in 2017. Then-Lt. Gov. Reynolds became the Governor, but Iowa’s Attorney General ruled that, according to the Iowa Constitution, the position of Lieutenant Governor was not vacant and could not formally be filled. Neither initiative was considered controversial, and Iowans voted to approve both with overwhelming support.

CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS

All four of Iowa’s House seats are currently held by Republicans, and each incumbent ran for reelection. Going into the race, the two closest contests appeared to be the 1st and 3rd Congressional Districts, with both races rated as “tossups.” Both races saw a signiﬁcant amount of fundraising by the Democratic candidates, who outspent their Republican opponents by $1.35 million in the 1st District and $258,000 in the 3rd District.

In a closely watched race, 1st District incumbent Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-IA) appears to have maintained her seat against Democratic challenger Christina Bohannon in a rematch of the 2022 race. Rep. Miller-Meeks beat Bohannon in 2022 with a seven-point margin. At the time of publication, Rep. MillerMeeks is leading by just over 800 votes.

In the 3rd Congressional District, Rep. Zach Nunn (R-IA) won reelection over Democratic opponent Lanon Baccam by nearly 4% and secured a second term. The 3rd Congressional District, which includes the capital city of Des Moines, has seen very close races in the last several elections and has ﬂipped between Republican and Democratic control during this time.

As expected, the incumbents easily won reelection in the 2nd and 4th Districts. Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA) won her race by 16 points, and Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-IA) won his by 34 points. Neither of Iowa’s two Republican senators, Joni Ernst and Chuck Grassley, were up for reelection this cycle.

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

As a former swing state that has turned solid red in the last decade, Iowa selected President-elect Donald Trump by 13 points over Vice President Kamala Harris, giving him six electoral votes toward his electoral win. Despite polling released in the week before the election, which predicted that Vice President Harris would carry the state by three points, President-elect Trump expanded his margin compared to the last two presidential races in Iowa. President-elect Trump carried Iowa by nine points in 2016 and eight points in 2020.

GENERAL SUMMATION

Iowa’s 2024 election results confirm that Iowa continues to be a solidly Republican state. Republicans grew their majority in both chambers of the State Legislature and retained all four U.S. House seats. With the exception of the Auditor of State, every one of Iowa’s statewide offices are held by Republicans. Each of these offices will be up for reelection in the 2026 midterms.

KENTUCKY

OVERVIEW

In Frankfort, the balance of power will not shift this cycle. Prior to the election, Republicans held supermajorities in both the House and Senate. The House Republican Caucus ousted a democrat incumbent but lost a previously held open seat, leaving their total membership the same. The Senate caucuses remained untouched from the election, despite internal leadership changes spurred by the retirement of Floor Leader Damon Thayer (R-17), which will have lasting impacts. Kentucky voters considered two constitutional amendments. Amendment 1, which prohibits noncitizens from voting, passed by a wide margin. Amendment 2, which proposed the public funding of private and charter schools, was broadly defeated and failed to win a single county.

GOVERNOR

KEY TAKEAWAYS

 Republicans maintained a supermajority in both chambers of the Legislature.

 An amendment to prohibit non-citizens from voting passed.

 An amendment to allow public school funding to support private schools failed.

 Financial triggers were met that allow the Legislature to decrease Kentucky’s income tax rate from 4% down to 3.5% in the upcoming session.

Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY) will head into the second year of his second term. The Republican supermajorities in both chambers of the Legislature are anticipated to block Gov. Beshear’s policy priorities. The Legislature has limited the Governor’s authority over the last few sessions by reorganizing departments, as they did with the Governor’s office of Agriculture Policy, and assigning them to other statewide officeholders, a trend that is expected to continue. The Current Commissioner of Agriculture, Jonathan Shell (R), has benefited from this dynamic, as the General Assembly passed several bills moving departments to his purview and proposed more legislation that would move the Department of Fish and Wildlife, among others.

KENTUCKY SENATE

Nineteen Kentucky State Senate seats were up for election this cycle, and the Republicans’ control remains unchanged with a 31-7 majority once the votes were tallied. Despite the lack of changes, the results solidified Republican dominance as a several of the new Republicans replaced the previous caucus’s more radical members. Craig Robinson will replace Hopkinsville Sen. Whitney Westerfield (R-3), and Arron Reed will replace Sen. Adrienne Southworth (R-7). In Senate District 17, Matt Nunn (R) succeeded Floor Leader Thayer. While Senate District 29 was notable with an 11-candidate write-in race to replace the late Sen. Johnnie Turner (R-29), Scott Madon (R) won with the help of an endorsement from U.S. Rep. Hal Rogers (RKY).

Although there were only six contested races in November, and the election results saw minor changes, several key committee chairs decided not to seek reelection, signaling potential changes in the Senate’s internal leadership. Republicans will retain a firm grip on the chamber’s agenda, but the leadership elections slated for December will likely decide the chamber’s priorities.

The legislative session will commence on Jan. 7, 2025, with the swearing-in of new members. The Republican supermajority is expected to shape forthcoming debates on tax and budget concerns, setting the tone for further conservative policy approaches. Leadership dynamics are poised to shift, particularly with Floor Leader Thayer not seeking reelection. This opens the door for new contenders like Caucus Chair

Julie Raque Adams (R-36) and prominent members Sens. Max Wise (R-16) and Robby Mills (R-4) to seek leadership positions.

KENTUCKY HOUSE

Republicans held onto their 80-20 supermajority in the Kentucky House. Democrats lost one member of their leadership team in Lexington but flipped a seat across town where the incumbent lost in the primary to his further-to-the-right opponent. Intra-party conflicts in northern Kentucky did not hamper Republican margins, with many members receiving between 60-70% of the vote share. This was the most static election cycle for the State House in several cycles. Since 2016, there has been an average of a 10-seat change each cycle: this year, the net change was zero.

BALLOT INITIATIVES

Kentucky voters decided on two ballot measures this year, passing one to amend the State’s Constitution. Amendment 1, which passed with more than 62% of the vote, prevents future legislatures from passing laws allowing cities to decide whether non-residents should be allowed to vote in school board races or local elections. Provisions like this have already passed in Maryland, California, and Vermont.

Amendment 2, the most hotly contested issue on the ballot this cycle, failed across all 120 counties. It was the culmination of eight years’ worth of Republican efforts to bring school choice to the state, an issue that House Speaker David Osborne (R-59) cares for deeply. Kentucky’s top court has consistently ruled in favor of public education due to the “common schools” language in the state constitution, thus leaving a constitutional amendment as the only option left to the majority. Public education has been controversial in the Commonwealth for several cycles, with several pro-public education candidates beating their school choice opponents. The Kentucky Educators Association has mobilized its members over the last six legislative sessions to fight against school choice, teachers’ pensions – and everything in between. Given that public school systems are the largest employers in many of Kentucky’s rural counties, it is unsurprising that the amendment faced significant opposition.

CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS

All of Kentucky’s Congressional members were secure this election cycle. Several still ran the full gauntlet in pursuit of higher margins. Rep. James Comer (R-01), Chair of the House Committee on Oversight and Accountability, raised over $3.4 million for his reelection bid, compared to his Democratic opponent Erin Marshall’s $64,000. Rep. Comer ultimately earned 75% of the vote and won a majority of the vote all 35 counties.

Several Republican Representatives focused heavily on their ground game, mobilizing volunteers and plastering their districts with signs. For some, this election was about positioning for the 2026 Senate and 2027 Gubernatorial races. Reps. Andy Barr (R-06) and Brett Guthrie (R-02), both contenders for a committee gavel of their own, had similar races in safe Republican districts. Rep. Thomas Massie (R-04) saw a bit more excitement, boosted by recognition on social media from Elon Musk, but his race followed the same script of Republican dominance.

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Kentucky was one of the first states called for President-elect Donald Trump, who secured all six of the State’s electoral votes once again. While some counties have shifted blue in recent state elections, 118 of Kentucky’s 120 counties chose to return to President-elect Trump, with many delivering between 80-90% of the vote in his favor. This marked the third consecutive election in which Kentucky remained a stronghold for the Republican candidate

GENERAL SUMMATION

This cycle was politics as usual in Kentucky, with Republicans maintaining their supermajority status in both chambers of the State Legislature. Statewide political shifts are yet to be determined, as key chairmanships and leadership posts will be decided in mid-December. There could be significant changes in Senate leadership, which could pull power westward in the state and to the more rural areas. With Senate Floor Leader Thayer not returning, and Sen. Julie Raque Adams (R-36) facing opposition for her leadership position, the Senate’s leadership could find itself with two rural, western Kentucky members, and without representation of the urban “golden triangle ”

LOUISIANA

OVERVIEW

Louisiana’s congressional outcomes were as expected with Republican incumbents winning overwhelmingly and former U.S. Rep. and State Sen. Cleo Fields putting Democrats on the map with a win in the newly drawn 6th Congressional District. The remainder of Louisiana’s political landscape was solidified after the 2023 statewide election, resulting in a Republican trifecta and Republican supermajorities in both the State House and Senate. Additionally, Louisiana elected Republicans to every statewide office in the 2023 election. As such, the GOP continues to dominate the state’s agenda.

Key Takeaways

KEY TAKEAWAYS

 Louisiana maintained their Republican trifecta and will keep Republican supermajorities in the State House and Senate.

 All statewide elected officials are now Republican.

 Five of six congressional incumbents won reelection.

 Five of six Congressional incumbents won reelection.

 Democrat Cleo Fields will become Louisiana’s new U.S. Representative for the 6th Congressional District.

The State’s ballot contained only one constitutional amendment that would dedicate federal revenues the state receives from alternative or renewable offshore energy sources to the Coastal Protection and Restoration Fund, which ultimately received 73% of the vote. In addition, Louisiana’s ballot contained a couple of noteworthy local races, including the race for East Baton Rouge Mayor-President and the race for District 2 Public Service Commissioner. The race for East Baton Rouge Mayor-President will go to a Dec. 7 runoff between incumbent Sharon Weston-Broome (D), who received 31% of the vote, and “Sid” Edwards (R), who received 34% of the vote. In the race for District 2 Public Service Commissioner, State Sen. Jean-Paul Coussan (R-23) claimed victory after receiving 54% of the vote.

The Louisiana Legislature preemptively planned to convene a special legislative session to address tax reform, beginning Nov. 6 and adjourning no later than Nov. 25. The Louisiana 2025 regular legislative session is set to convene on April 14, 2025, and will adjourn no later than June 12, 2025.

GOVERNOR

Gov. Jeff Landry (R) was elected on Oct. 14, 2023, and sworn in on Jan. 8, 2024, as Louisiana’s 57th Governor. Claiming 52% of the vote, Landry’s victory was the first time since the State’s jungle primary system was instituted in 1979 that a first-time candidate for Governor won the primary outright with more than 50% of the vote. The ‘jungle primary’ refers to the open primary system within Louisiana whereby all candidates for an office run together in one election, and the majority vote wins. Gov. Landry served as Louisiana’s 45th Attorney General from 2016 to 2024, and previously served as U.S. Representative to Louisiana’s 3rd Congressional district from 2011 to 2013. Gov. Landry’s victory also marked the first time in 98 years that an Attorney General was elected to Governor.

As his first order of business, and perhaps his most dominant campaign promise, Gov. Landry called the Legislature in for a special session on crime and public safety, where a package of criminal justice proposals flew through the legislative process with overwhelming Republican support. Other items on his legislative agenda, some of which he has already taken steps to fulfill during the 2024 Legislative Session, include creating an Educational Savings Program (ESA) in the state, tax reform, insurance reform, economic development, as well as a number of Republican-led efforts by governors across the country. During his first few weeks in office, Gov. Landry signed an executive order directing all state agencies to identify efficiencies within their budgets in an effort to mitigate the State’s impending fiscal cliff. These conversations have gone,

and will continue to go, hand in hand with the Governor’s goal of tax reform. In October, Gov. Landry announced the “Louisiana Forward” campaign, which includes his entire tax reform plan. With a strong push from the Governor’s Office, the Louisiana Legislature is expected to work through a number of these tax-related proposals in the upcoming special legislative session.

LOUISIANA SENATE

The Louisiana Senate consists of 39 seats and maintained a Republican supermajority of 28 to 11 Sen. Cameron Henry (R-09) was elected as Senate President for the 2024-2028 term. The Senate has proven itself to be a check on power of both the Governor’s Office as well as the State House of Representatives, voting down a number of proposals the upper chamber viewed as having been rushed. Finance Committee Chair Glen Womack (R-32) and Revenue and Fiscal Affairs Committee Chair Franklin Foil (R-16) will play significant roles in the upcoming special and regular legislative sessions as tax reform will be a main priority

Louisiana held its statewide election in 2023, during which time all Senate members were elected. Sen. Coussan, who currently represents the Lafayette area, announced his candidacy for District 2 Public Service Commissioner. Sen. Coussan claimed victory in the race for Commissioner, earning 54% of the vote. A special election will be held in the coming weeks to fill his vacancy in the Senate.

LOUISIANA HOUSE

The Louisiana House of Representatives has a total of 105 seats and maintained its Republican supermajority on Election Day. Rep. Phillip DeVillier (R-41) was elected as House Speaker for the 2024-2028 term.

Louisiana held its statewide election in 2023, during which time all House of Representatives members were elected. Ahead of this election cycle, Rep. C. Denise Marcelle (D-61) announced her candidacy for Baton Rouge City Constable. She ultimately lost her race, claiming only 46% of the vote, so will maintain her seat in the Louisiana House. Additionally, with State Sen. Fields winning his race for Louisiana’s 6th Congressional District, Rep. Larry Selders (D-67) announced his candidacy to fill the seat.

BALLOT INITIATIVES

Louisiana voters passed a constitutional amendment proposal with 73% of the vote that will allow federal revenues received by the state generated from Outer Continental Shelf alternative or renewable energy production to be deposited into the Coastal Protection and Restoration Fund. This was the only amendment on the Nov. 5 ballot.

CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS

Voters in Louisiana elected six candidates to serve in the U.S. House of Representatives, five of whom were Republican incumbents. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) won handily with 67% of the vote compared to his primary opponent Mel Manuel (D), who received 24% of the vote. Incumbent Rep. Troy Carter (D-LA) of Louisiana’s 2nd Congressional District won with 60% of the vote. Incumbent Rep. Clay Higgins (R-LA) of Louisiana’s 3rd Congressional District won with 71% of the vote with his primary opponent receiving only 19% of the vote. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) overwhelmingly won his reelection bid with 86% of the vote over his opponent Joshua Morott (R). Incumbent Rep. Julia Letlow (R-LA) of Louisiana’s newly drawn 5th Congressional District won with 63% of the vote, knocking off Republican challenger “Vinny” Mendoza (11% of the vote) and Democratic challenger Michael Vallien, Jr. (26% of the vote). Lastly,

Democrats gained an additional seat in Louisiana with the victory of U.S. Rep.-elect Cleo Fields, who took home with win with 51% of the vote.

Of note, the U.S. Supreme Court issued a stay order in May blocking a lower court decision preventing the use of a newly drawn Louisiana congressional district map that includes two majority-minority districts instead of the current one majority-minority district. This order ensured that the map was used for the 2024 election. Rep. Garret Graves (R-06), who most recently represented Louisiana’s 6th Congressional District, announced his decision to not seek reelection as a result of the redrawn congressional maps significantly altering the demographics of his district. Rep.-elect Fields announced his candidacy early in this process and was ultimately elected to fill the seat, which connects Baton Rouge with northern areas, including Shreveport, enhancing its majority-minority composition. All races followed Louisiana’s majority-vote system, with one race headed to a runoff on Dec. 7, 2024.

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Louisiana voters turned out in record numbers and overwhelmingly selected President-elect Donald Trump with 60% of the vote, compared to only 38% earned by Vice President Kamala Harris. President-elect Trump received a total of eight electoral votes for winning the state of Louisiana. Only two days into early voting, the Secretary of State’s office reported that more than a quarter of a million people in Louisiana had cast their ballots. The total was comparable to the same point during the 2020 Presidential Election; however, the demographic shift is notable. In the last election, white voters comprised 62% of the electorate after two days while Black voters were only 34%. This year, the proportion was 70% to 26%, respectively. Additionally, in the 2020 Presidential Election, Democrats made up 52% of early voters, compared to only 40% this year. Louisiana’s unofficial voter turnout was 65.9%

GENERAL SUMMATION

Louisiana’s political dynamic and Republican stronghold was solidified with the results of the 2023 primary and general elections. With a Republican trifecta and supermajority of both legislative chambers, the GOP is expected to continue dominating the State’s agenda. The 2025 Legislative Session will convene April 14, 2025, and adjourn no later than June 12, 2025. Occurring during odd-numbered years, the Legislature will conduct a “fiscal session,” meaning that bills are limited to subject matter pertaining to state finances and revenue, although lawmakers do have the ability to introduce up to five non-fiscal related bills.

MAINE

OVERVIEW

The State of Maine attracts considerable attention from national political parties and super PACs because of its reputation as a "purple state," with one of the largest voting blocs in the country (~28%) registered as "unenrolled" (or referred to locally as "Independents") and an ideological split between the 1st and 2nd Congressional Districts. The First District generally supports Democrats in both state and local elections. In contrast, the rural 2nd District leans conservative. The race for Maine's 2nd Congressional District has been widely described as one of the most competitive in the country and, accordingly, has attracted considerable spending from the national parties and led to nearly wall-to-wall advertising on digital and traditional media platforms. Maine voters had ﬁve ballot measures to consider, ultimately approving four of them.

GOVERNOR

KEY TAKEAWAYS

 U.S. Rep. Jared Golden hangs on to his seat with a narrow win against Maine House Republican Austin Theriault. A ranked choice voting runoﬀ is underway and will be followed by a recount.

 Incumbent U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree won reelection.

 Incumbent U.S. Sen. Angus King won reelection.

 Democrats retained control of both State legislative chambers.

Gov. Janet Mills (D) is in the final two years of her second term and cannot seek reelection because of the state's term limits, which restrict her to eight years. A recent report from the Commissioner of the Department of Administrative and Financial Services projected a $1 billion funding gap for the biennium budget. However, in the recent past, structural gaps have ranged from $504 million to $881 million, and an increase in projected revenue or budget adjustments tempered that during the legislative process. Recently, the Governor and Legislature have built in some protection from budget gaps by maxing out the State's so-called "Rainy Day Fund." Speculation has developed about candidates for the 2026 election on both sides of the aisle, but no one has made an official candidacy announcement. For Democrats, that includes former Maine Speaker and current Director of the Governor's Office of Policy, Innovation, and Future, Hannah Pingree (daughter of current Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-ME)), outgoing Sen. President Troy Jackson (D-01), and Secretary of State Shenna Bellows (D). Republican hopefuls may include business leader Jonathan Bush (cousin of former President George W. Bush), former State Sen. Garrett Mason (R-22), and former Assistant Secretary of State Bobby Charles.

MAINE SENATE

Democrats retained their majority in the Senate by winning 20 of a possible 35 seats. Republicans appear poised to capture the remaining 15 seats. Given the narrow outcomes of a few races, two may end in recounts. Leadership positions are determined by a vote of the entire Senate membership, which typically leads to each party proposing their own slate of candidates. Term-limited Senate President Troy Jackson, poised to run for governor, leaves an opening for new leadership. Sen. Mattie Daughtry (D-23) was elected Sen. President. Sen. Theresa Pierce (D-25) was selected as Majority Leader and Sen. Jill Duson (D-27) will be Assistant Majority Leader.

Senate Republicans chose one new member of leadership after outgoing Assistant Senate Republican Leader Lisa Keim was term limited. Sen. Trey Stewart (R-02) will return as the Senate Republican Leader and Sen. Matt Harrington (R-33) will be Assistant Minority Leader.

As noted earlier, the projected state budget shortfall of around $1 billion looms large over the Legislature. In recent years, the shortfall has ranged from around $500 million to just shy of $1 billion and was stunted by revenue projects that provided additional budget ﬂexibility. Another area of focus will be the rising cost of electricity, driven by recent storms and small solar farms. The Democratic majority shared that they expect to move legislation related to climate change, including recommendations from the Maine Climate Council's second iteration of the "Maine Won't Wait" report that will be public in December.

MAINE HOUSE

The 151-member House of Representatives has been under Democratic control for the last six elections. Democrats lost three seats this year, reducing their majority in the chamber, but are expected to remain in the majority thanks, in part, to unenrolled candidates expected to caucus with the Democrats. Notably, many races have razor thin margins and nine are headed to recounts. Former House Speaker Ryan Fecteau (D-11) is returning after missing the 131st Legislature because of term limits and was elected as Speaker. Former House Majority Leader Matt Moonen (D-117) has regained his leadership post and House Assistant Majority Leader will be Rep. Lori Gramlich (D-131). House Republican Leader Billy Bob Faulkingham (R-12) retains his position as Minority Leader. Assistant Leader Amy Arata (R-104) withdrew from the leadership race and Katrina Smith (R-63) was elected. Committee chairs and other assignments will be ﬁnalized in late November and early December.

BALLOT INITIATIVES

Mainers voted on two policy ballot initiatives and three bond questions, passing all of them except a change to the Maine ﬂag.

Question 1, which would set a $5,000 limit for giving to PACs that spend money independently to support or defeat candidates for oﬃce, overwhelmingly passed approximately 74% of the vote; however, it will certainly face legal challenges. This ballot initiative was a result of a citizen-initiated petition, and proponents had a noticeably light outreach campaign with earned media but faced no public opposition. There are split legal opinions about this question's applicability to party fundraising.

Question 2, which authorized a $25 million General Fund bond to support research and development and commercialization for Maine-based public and private institutions in support of technological innovation, narrowly passed and was actively supported by the Maine State Chamber of Commerce. The measure targets sectors of life sciences and biomedical technology, environmental and renewable energy technology, information technology, advanced technologies for forestry and agriculture, aquaculture and marine technology, composites and advanced materials, and precision manufacturing This measure passed with nearly 55% of the vote.

Question 3, which authorized a $10 million General Fund bond to restore historic buildings owned by governmental and nonproﬁt organizations, with funds being issued contingent on a 25% local match requirement from either private or nonproﬁt sources, did not have an active campaign but was narrowly approved with more than 51% of the vote.

Question 4 authorized a $30 million General Fund bond to develop and maintain outdoor recreation trails and must be matched by at least $3 million in public and private donations received broad support. The eﬀort was championed by many environmental and conservation organizations, with leadership from the Natural Resources Council of Maine, and passed with over 55% of the vote.

Question 5 turned out to be the most controversial, proposing to use the Pine Tree Flag from 1909 as the official State flag. While the proposed flag has been popular in Maine apparel and gift shops, it was defeated with approximately 55% of the electorate rejecting the change. The Secretary of State held a design contest in the summer of 2024, almost identical to the description in effect between 1901 and 1909, and had indicated that the winning design would become the new state flag if the proposed law were approved.

CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS

In Maine's 1st Congressional District, Democratic incumbent Rep. Pingree easily defeated Republican challenger Ronald Russell and Independent opponent Ethan Alcorn. Serving in Congress since 2009, she won reelection handily, securing approximately 59% of the vote. Maine's 2nd Congressional District has featured competitive races in recent years. Democratic Rep. Jared Golden (D-ME) earned his third term in 2022, following a second round of ballot counting in Maine's ranked choice voting process. This year, the race remained close, with only a few thousand votes separating the candidates out of more than 374,000 votes cast. This race is now in a ranked choice runoﬀ and is headed to a full recount; Rep. Golden is currently the projected winner.

Independent incumbent Sen. Angus King easily cruised to victory over former Maine Republican Party Chair Demi Kouzounas with more than 52% of the vote. The Democratic nominee, David Costello, surprised some by garnering 10% of the vote. Sen. King has explicitly stated this will be his ﬁnal term in the Senate, which will lead to considerable interest in 2030.

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Maine split electoral votes between the 1st and 2nd Congressional Districts. The more conservative and rural 2nd District supported President-elect Trump four years ago and countered the more liberal 1st District that backed Vice President Kamala Harris. Unlike prior campaigns, both candidates expected this result and spent fewer resources in Maine this election. The remaining two electoral votes, determined by the winner of the statewide vote, were awarded to Vice President Harris.

GENERAL SUMMATION

Democrats and Republicans in Maine will organize swiftly to recruit candidates for governor as Gov. Mills completes her final term. Both parties are expected to recruit candidates early for Maine's House and Senate, with an expected 20% turnover due to term limits. In Maine, the Governor may only serve two consecutive four-year terms but may be elected any number of times. For members of the Maine House and Senate, both serve two-year terms and are limited to four consecutive terms, Republicans made tremendous strides in fundraising this cycle, gaining ground on Democrats, but struggled to attract electable candidates to fill races. With tax revenues flagging in Maine, like many states across the country, there will be heated and pitched battles over how to address the budget shortfall. Many legislators will jockey for media and public attention to highlight their ideas, attack their opponents' ideas, and potentially position themselves for future runs for higher office.

MARYLAND

OV ERVIEW

While the Governor, State Senate, and House of Delegates are not up for election until 2026, the big race to watch in Maryland this year was for the U.S. Senate as it was expected to impact the partisan balance of the U.S. Senate in the 119th Congress. Additionally, there were eight races in Maryland for the U.S. House of Representatives, including three noteworthy open seat races due to retirements of Reps. David Trone (D-MD), John Sarbanes (D-MD), and Dutch Ruppersberger (D-MD).

GOVERNOR

In 2022, now-Gov. Wes Moore easily won in the Gubernatorial election over his Republican challenger, former Del. Dan Cox. Gov. Moore and Lt. Gov. Aruna Miller were sworn into office on Jan. 18, 2023. The next Gubernatorial election will take place in 2026. Gov. Moore is eligible and expected to run for reelection for a second term.

MARYLAND SENATE

KEY TAKEAWAYS

 Angela Alsobrooks (D) defeated Former Gov. Larry Hogan in the race for the open U.S. Senate seat.

 Democrats won six of the eight congressional seats for the state.

 April McClain Delaney won the race for Maryland’s 6th Congressional District.

Elections for the Maryland State Senate will also take place in 2026. All 47 seats in the Maryland Senate were up for election in 2022, with Democrats increasing their majority to 34-13. Senators currently fall under the leadership of Senate President Bill Ferguson (D-46).

Since the 2022 election, former Del Sara Love (D) was appointed to the District 16 Montgomery County Senate seat after her predecessor, Sen. Ariana Kelly (D-16), joined the Moore Administration. Sens. Nick Charles (D-25) and Alonzo Washington (D-22) were appointed from Delegate seats after the departure of Sens. Melony Griffith (D-25) and Paul Pinsky (D-22), who resigned from their respective districts. There will soon be an appointment to the Anne Arundel County District 30 Senate seat due to Democratic Sen. Sarah Elfreth’s success in her election to U.S. Congress.

The 447th session of the Maryland General Assembly will convene on Jan. 8, 2025. Committee leadership is held by the Senate Democrats. The Budget and Tax Committee is chaired by Sen. Guy Guzzone (D-13), the Committee on Education, Energy, and the Environment is chaired by Sen. Brian Feldman (D-15), the Finance Committee is chaired by Sen. Pamela Beidle (D-32), and the Judicial Proceedings Committee is chaired by Sen. William Smith (D-20).

MARYLAND HOUSE

Elections for the Maryland House of Delegates will take place in 2026. Speaker of the House Adrienne Jones presides over 141 State Delegates, with 102 Democrats and 39 Republicans. Del. Rachel Munoz (R-31) in Anne Arundel County announced her intention to resign from the Legislature, effective Jan. 1, 2025.

During the first half of this term, eleven new Delegates were appointed to fill vacancies in the House of Delegates, with more vacancies expected after the 2024 general election:

Del. Teresa Woorman (D-16), Montgomery County, replaced now-Sen. Sara Love; Del. Denise Roberts (D25), Prince George’s County, replaced former Del. Nick Charles; Del. Ryan Spiegel (D-17), Montgomery County, replaced former Del. Kumar Barve; Del. Kent Roberson (D-25), Prince George’s County, replaced former Del. Darryl Barnes; and Del. Ashanti Martinez (D-22), Prince George’s County, replaced former Del. Alonzo Washington.

Several Delegates were appointed to fill the seats of those who transitioned to the Moore Administration, including: Del. Barry Beauchamp (R-38B), Wicomico County, replaced Del. Carl Anderton’s (R) seat; Del. Malcolm Ruff (D-41), Baltimore City, replaced former Del. Tony Bridges; Del. W. Gregory Wims (D-39), Montgomery County, replaced former Del. Kirill Reznik; Del. Sarah Wolek (D-16), Montgomery County, replaced former Del. Ariana Kelly; Del. Bernice Mireku-North (D-14), Montgomery County, replaced former Del. Eric Luedtke; and Del. Karen Toles (D-25), Prince George’s County, replaced former Del. Dereck Davis, who resigned to become State Treasurer.

The 2025 legislative session will be dominated by the State’s fiscal health and looming budget shortfalls, necessitating hard decisions on major priorities in the education and transportation space with fewer dollars to go around. Gov. Moore has been focused on driving economic growth in the state and has said that he is opposed to tax increases, a sentiment shared by Senate President Ferguson, who condemned broad-based tax increases. The Speaker of the House, however, has been more open to advancing revenue proposals.

BALLOT INITIATIVES

Maryland voters weighed in on one highly anticipated ballot measure this year. Question 1 proposed an amendment to the State Constitution to enshrine “reproductive freedom,” defined to include abortion. Maryland voters approved this ballot question by a wide margin. With this vote, Marylanders confirmed the right to terminate or prevent a pregnancy in the State Constitution.

CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS

Current U.S. Sen. Ben Cardin (D-MD) announced earlier this year that he would not run for a fourth term in 2024. Democrats have held the seat since 1987, and Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D) continued the trend, defeating former Gov. Larry Hogan (R). The outcome of this race garnered national attention because of the potential impact in the partisan balance of the U.S. Senate in 2025.

The retirement of Rep. Sarbanes led to an open race for Maryland’s 3rd Congressional District. State Sen. Sarah Elfreth (D-30) defeated attorney Rob Steinberger (R).

Rep. Trone unsuccessfully ran in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate against Angela Alsobrooks. With his open seat for the 6th Congressional District in Montgomery County, April McClain Delaney (D) ran against former Del Neil Parrott (R). The seat was historically represented by Democrats until 1992, when Republican Roscoe Bartlett earned and held the seat for 20 years. The race was eventually called in favor of McClain Delaney, determining that control of the 6th Congressional District will stay with Democrats rather than shift to Republicans The most recent congressional map was redrawn last spring, making the district more competitive.

Rep. Ruppersberger also announced his retirement earlier this year after 11 terms. Current Baltimore County Executive Johnny Olszewski Jr. (D) defeated competitor Kim Klacik (R) in the race for the open seat in the 2nd Congressional District

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Vice President Kamala Harris earned Maryland’s ten electoral votes, beating President-elect Donald Trump by nearly 23%. This was an unsurprising result, as a Republican candidate for President has not won the State’s electoral votes since 1988.

GENERAL SUMMATION

Democrats maintained six of Maryland’s eight seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, all of which were considered safe for the incumbent party. The race for the 6th Congressional District has not been called yet but could lead to a seven-seat balance for Maryland Democrats in Congress.

Departures and retirements created four open seats and unprecedented turnover for Maryland’s congressional delegation. There was also unprecedented interest in these races, with a total of 87 (58 D and 29 R) candidates ﬁling to run for Maryland’s eight congressional districts. The election also created an opportunity for Maryland voters to send three female candidates to Maryland’s currently all-male congressional delegation.

MISSISSIPPI

OVERVIEW

Reliably red Mississippi went as expected with President-elect Donald Trump defeating Vice President Kamala Harris 61-38 Incumbent Sen. Roger Wicker (R) also defeated his challenger 6337, securing his third term as Senator after also serving in the House since 1995. Mississippi’s House incumbents all cruised to victory as well and will continue to have three Republicans and one Democrat in Congress Mississippi elects its statewide leaders in off-year elections, so the only state races on the ballot were for judicial seats. The highest profile judicial race of the cycle was between a crowded field of challengers and incumbent Mississippi Supreme Court Justice Jim Kitchens, which resulted in a Nov. 26 runoff. Justice Kitchens will face off against State Sen. Jenifer Branning (R-18), who was leading with 42% of the vote on election night to Justice Kitchens’s 36%.

GOVERNOR

KEY TAKEAWAYS

 Mississippi continues to have a Republican supermajority in both chambers.

 The Mississippi Senate will feature a partial election year after a recent federal judicial redistricting ruling.

 The Mississippi House of Representatives and the Mississippi Senate are poised to go head-to-head on certain issues such a Medicaid expansion, tax reform, and transportation funding.

Republican Gov. Tate Reeves secured victory in his 2023 reelection race, defeating his Democratic challenger Brandon Presley by around 4%. Gov. Reeves is term limited and is going into the second year of his final term as governor. Some of the Republican leadership of the Legislature, along with the Governor, plan to campaign aggressively for an elimination of the state income tax in 2025. However, he will likely be at odds with that same leadership next year over Medicaid expansion. Gov. Reeves was a staunch opponent of, and threatened to veto, an expansion bill last year in the Legislature. Outside of the Capitol, Gov. Reeves is focused on pursuing economic development wins for the state, having announced billions of dollars in new capital investment and thousands of new jobs since taking office five years ago.

MISSISSIPPI SENATE

The Republicans hold a supermajority in the State Senate and maintained that control in the 2023 election cycle. However, a federal judicial panel ruled that the redistricting plan adopted by the Senate in 2022 failed to create enough majority-minority districts, particularly in two key areas of the state: the Memphis suburbs in DeSoto County and the region surrounding Hattiesburg. Therefore, it is likely that up to a dozen or so Senate districts will be altered in order to comply with the federal order. It will be an interesting dynamic for the 2025 legislative session, with one chamber in an election year but not the other. Despite this, Lt. Governor Delbert Hosemann (R) will still attempt to tackle several major issues, including cutting the grocery tax, Medicaid expansion with a true work requirement, free community college, increasing mental health resources in schools, and addressing school absenteeism.

MISSISSIPPI HOUSE

Speaker Jason White (R-48) will enter his second year as Speaker with several large policy objectives on the agenda for the House Republican supermajority. There will be a major focus on tax reform in the House that could include the elimination of the state income tax, reduction of the grocery tax, and/or an increase in the fuel tax to adequately fund the state transportation system. The House will likely take up Medicaid

expansion again this year, after coming close in final negotiations with the Senate last session. Other reforms under consideration include health care facility Certificate of Need (CON) requirements, school choice, and Pharmacy Benefit Manager regulations. On the political front, Speaker White will avoid the level of disruption that his counterparts in the Senate will face because the judicial panel only required one House seat to be re-drawn.

MISSISSIPPI SUPREME COURT

One Mississippi Supreme Court justice was defeated, and another is in danger of losing in a runoff. Justice Dawn Beam, who has served in one of the Supreme Court districts in southern Mississippi since 2016, has lost the non-partisan judicial race to lawyer David Sullivan from the Coast. Long-serving Justice Kitchens is trailing State Sen. Branning in a crowded race that will be decided by a runoff on Nov. 26. Sen. Branning has been endorsed by Mississippi’s business community as Justice Kitchens is considered one of the more liberal leaning justices on the Court.

CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS

Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS) easily won reelection against attorney Ty Penkins (D). With anti-incumbent sentiment impacting many Republican primaries in recent history, Sen. Wicker worked hard over the past year to position himself for victory in both the primary and general elections. He defeated two far-right candidates in the March primary, winning 61% of the Republican vote. He will now likely serve as the Chair of the Senate Committee on Armed Services in the next Congress. Notably, Sen. Wicker received more votes than President-elect Trump in Mississippi.

Mississippi’s U.S. House delegation sailed to reelection as well, defeating nominal opposition. In the 1st Congressional District, Rep. Trent Kelly (R-01) was reelected with 70% of the vote and will continue his senior roles on the House Committee on Armed Services and the House Committee on Agriculture. Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-02), the Ranking Member of House Committee on Homeland Security, was overwhelmingly reelected in the 2nd Congressional District. Rep. Michael Guest (R-03) will return to represent the 3rd Congressional District and continue to accrue seniority on the House Committee on Appropriations after running unopposed in the general election. The newest member of the delegation, Rep. Mike Ezell (R-04), will come back for his second term representing south Mississippi in the 4th Congressional District.

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

As expected, President-elect Trump won the popular vote in Mississippi and secured the State’s six electors by a margin of 61-37%. In the 2020 election, former President Trump won comfortably in Mississippi, garnering 57.6% of the vote.

GENERAL SUMMATION

There were no major surprises in Mississippi this year, but the state could be facing major upheavals in the political realm if Mississippi elected officials are tapped to join the Trump Administration. Speculation about possible nominations and the resulting domino effect could drive multiple changes to statewide or federal offices in the coming months. This dynamic, coupled with an aggressive legislative agenda and partial redistricting, will make for an eventful 2025 in Mississippi.

NEW HAMPSHIRE

OV ERVIEW

Once again, New Hampshire saw split outcomes between state and federal races, with Democrats successfully holding both congressional seats and winning the state’s four electoral votes while Republicans maintained and strengthened their control of state government.

In the race to succeed outgoing Gov. Chris Sununu (R), Republican and former U.S. Sen. Kelly Ayotte won by a comfortable margin against Democrat and former Manchester mayor Joyce Craig. Republicans also expanded their majority in the New Hampshire House of Representatives and reached a supermajority in the State Senate, while keeping control of the ﬁve-member Executive Council, which approves gubernatorial nominees and government contracts. Republicans will now have full control of the State agenda as the upcoming budget cycle begins. The new Legislature will be sworn in on Dec. 4, 2024, and the next session will begin on Jan. 8, 2025, and run until June 30, 2025.

GOVERNOR

Key Takeaways

 Republican Kelly Ayotte won a close race to succeed Chris Sununu as Governor by nearly 9%.

 Two State Senate seats

ﬂipped to Republican giving them a supermajority of 16-8.

 Republicans expanded their majority in the State House of Representatives with an expected 223 of the 400 total seats.

 A new Senate President and Governor will work with the House Speaker to craft the State’s next 2-year budget in 2025.

 Democrats again swept all Federal races.

In a race dominated by tens of millions of dollars spent by the national parties’ gubernatorial arms, Gov.-elect Kelly Ayotte won by a strong margin of 53.3– 44.6. Gov.-elect Ayotte secured enough ticket-splitters to run more than ﬁve points ahead of President-elect Trump, maintaining her party’s control of the Governor’s oﬃce.

Gov.-elect Ayotte will now take the first pen on the state budget, facing a variety of challenges from plummeting business taxes to lawsuits that could force the state to send more school funding dollars to local districts. This will also be the first budget in eight years not buoyed by a significant surplus or federal dollars. Gov.-elect Ayotte has also indicated that she will make it a priority to tackle New Hampshire’s housing crisis, mental health and substance abuse challenges, and rising energy costs. The new governor will be sworn in on Jan. 9, 2025, and will submit her budget proposal to the Legislature in early February.

NEW HAMPSHIRE SENATE

In a surprisingly strong showing in the State Senate, Republicans achieved a supermajority of 16-8 after ﬂipping two seats, defeating Senate Democratic Leader Donna Soucy in the 18th District and Sen. Shannon Chandley in the 11th District. The next order of business will be replacing retiring Senate President Jeb Bradley (R-01). Current Senate Majority Leader Sharon Carson (R-14) is widely viewed as the favorite to secure the presidency, but the surprising numbers may result in additional names for discussion. Members will be sworn in and vote for the next president on Dec. 4, 2024.

NEW HAMPSHIRE HOUSE

While results are still outstanding in a handful of the Granite State’s 400 house races, it is clear that Republicans have expanded their majority, likely securing 223 seats. Current Speaker Sherman Packard is expected to retain the gavel, but as mentioned in the race for Senate President, more names could emerge. The House will be the ﬁrst body to work on the Governor’s budget proposal with a deadline of mid-March to send it to the Senate.

CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS

Democrats will continue to hold both of New Hampshire’s seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. Current 1st Congressional District Rep. Chris Pappas (D-01) won reelection by nine points, and Democrat Maggie Goodlander, former Biden Justice Department Oﬃcial, was victorious by a six-and-a-half-point margin in her campaign to succeed retiring Rep. Ann McLane Kuster (D-02) in the 2nd Congressional District. Both Members are mainstream Democrats who will largely be reliable votes for leadership in the 119th Congress. There was no election held for either U.S. Senate seat in New Hampshire in 2024.

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Vice President Kamala Harris continued Democrats’ winning streak in New Hampshire’s presidential races, but her margin of victory fell short of President Joe Biden’s results four years prior. Vice President Harris won the Granite State’s four electoral votes by 3%, making 2024 the sixth straight presidential race that Democrats have won going back to 2004.

GENERAL SUMMATION

The 2024 elections generally maintained the status quo in New Hampshire, with Republicans in Concord set to again pursue an agenda of low taxes and limited regulation. While Gov.-elect Ayotte is likely to take a more active role in the legislative process than her predecessor, the strengthened majorities in both chambers will create a diﬀerent governing dynamic than that of her GOP predecessor. As the 2026 cycle begins, popular incumbent U.S. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) is likely to seek reelection for a fourth term. She is expected to see a relatively smooth path to reelection.

OKLAHOMA

OVERVIEW

Oklahoma remains solidly Republican and has maintained its trifecta. With 101 members in the House of Representatives and 48 in the Senate, more than 80% of elected oﬃcials are Republicans. While rural areas of the state remain strongholds for the GOP, metropolitan areas such as Tulsa and Oklahoma City are showing slight signs of becoming more politically mixed. Gov. Kevin Stitt (R-OK) and Lt. Gov. Matt Pinnell (R-OK) will both serve out the remainder of their terms, which extend through the end of 2026.

GOVERNOR

KEY TAKEAWAYS

 Signiﬁcant leadership changes are on the horizon in the Legislature.

 The Republican Party maintained its dominance in Oklahoma, securing all Congressional seats and most Legislature seats.

In his ﬁnal term, Gov. Stitt (R) has achieved numerous wins that align with his conservative agenda. Gov. Stitt lowered the state’s personal income tax, expanded school choice, increased teacher pay, and redirected funds to classrooms across the state. In the health care space, he worked to improve rural health care access and manage Medicaid costs. Gov. Stitt has also focused on attracting business investments, further promoting economic growth in the state. As Gov. Stitt is term limited, Oklahoma will see a shift in leadership, with the upcoming gubernatorial race in 2026 already shaping up to be highly competitive. Potential contenders include Attorney General Gentner Drummond, U.S. Rep. Kevin Hern (R-01), House Speaker Charles McCall (R-22), Lt. Gov. Matt Pinnell, and Superintendent of Public Instruction Ryan Walters.

OKLAHOMA SENATE

The Oklahoma State Senate is composed of 48 members, with 40 seats held by Republicans. Former Senate President Pro Tempore Greg Treat (R-47) will complete his term on Nov. 20, 2024, leaving the leadership position open. Initially, Sen. Greg McCortney (R-13) was elected as Sen. Treat’s successor, but in a surprising upset, Sen. McCortney lost his reelection bid, creating a significant shift in Oklahoma’s political dynamics. His unexpected defeat has led to a reshuffling of Senate leadership. Currently, Sen. Lonnie Paxton (R-23) has been chosen as the President Pro Tempore designate, awaiting confirmation by the Republican Caucus in November and a full Senate vote in January. Several newly elected senators will take office in February, filling seats left vacant by resignations, term limits, or election losses. Despite these leadership changes, the Senate is expected to maintain its focus on key priorities including education reform, budget transparency, mental health initiatives, and balanced tax policy to enhance state services and fiscal responsibility.

OKLAHOMA HOUSE

The Oklahoma House of Representatives consists of 101 members, with 20 held by Democrats. As the 2025 legislative session approaches, set to convene on Feb. 3, 2025, the House will see signiﬁcant leadership changes. Former Speaker Charles McCall (R-22), the longest-serving Speaker in state history, is term-limited, making way for Rep. Kyle Hilbert (R-29) to become the youngest Speaker in Oklahoma’s history. With new leadership in both the House and Senate, expectations are high for the announcement of committee assignments, which will follow the Republican caucus retreat after the election. The departure of several long-serving members due to term limits and election losses has left many key leadership and committee

roles up for grabs. In this new landscape, the House is expected to prioritize economic diversiﬁcation, investments in state infrastructure, and potential tax reforms in the upcoming session.

BALLOT INITIATIVES

This November, Oklahoma voters decided on two constitutional amendments, both proposed by state lawmakers and approved by Gov. Stitt for the ballot. State Question 833 would permit the creation of Public Infrastructure Districts (PIDs), governed by a board of trustees. These districts would fund public works projects within their boundaries through a special tax, aﬀecting only properties within the district. All property owners in the proposed area must agree to form a PID. State Question 833 failed to pass with 61% of Oklahomans voting no. State Question 834 seeks to clarify that only U.S. citizens can vote in Oklahoma. While it would not change existing law, supporters say it adds clarity, while opponents argue it feeds into anti-immigrant sentiment. State Question 834 passed overwhelmingly with 80% of Oklahomans voting yes. State Question 832, which would raise the state minimum wage to $15/hour by 2029, has been delayed until June 2026 by the Governor.

CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS

In Oklahoma’s 2024 congressional elections, the Republican party retained all ﬁve of its U.S House seats. In the 5th Congressional District, Rep. Stephanie Bice (R-05) solidiﬁed her hold on the seat with 60% of the vote, continuing to represent the district with a strong majority, further cementing the GOP’s strength in the state. Urban areas within the state like Oklahoma City and Tulsa have shown gradual demographic shifts in recent elections. The competitive 2020 race between Rep. Stephanie Bice, who narrowly won with 52.1%, and Kendra Horn at 47.9% highlights these emerging dynamics, yet all Republican candidates ultimately retained their positions across the board. Oklahoma did not have a Senate election in 2024, as both Sen. James Lankford (R) and Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R) continue their terms from previous victories.

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

President-elect Donald Trump once again carried the state by a wide margin, securing all seven of the State’s electoral votes and further reinforcing Oklahoma’s position as a Republican stronghold in presidential elections. Notably, President-elect Trump won all 77 counties in Oklahoma for a third time. Oklahoma remains one of the most reliably conservative states in the nation, and its strong Republican base, particularly in rural areas, played a key role in delivering decisive electoral votes.

GENERAL SUMMATION

The 2024 election results continue to reinforce Oklahoma’s reputation as a reliably Republican state, with the GOP maintaining control of all statewide oﬃces and congressional seats. The continued control of Republicans in both urban and rural areas suggests that the state’s conservative policies will remain unchanged. However, 2026 will bring signiﬁcant changes with the election of a new governor, as Gov. Stitt is term limited. Additionally, new legislative leadership could potentially reshape the state’s political landscape and key priorities. Issues within economic growth, infrastructure development, and tax reform will likely remain priorities as Oklahoma moves forward under a Republican trifecta.

SOUTH CAROLINA

OVERVIEW

While 2024 was a midterm for statewide elected oﬃcials in South Carolina, turnout surged as voters cast their votes for president. President-elect Donald Trump secured the State's nine electoral votes, improving on his 2020 percentage by taking 58% of the vote.

All 170 seats of the South Carolina General Assembly were also on the ballot in 2024 as this was the first election under new district lines redrawn by the Legislature and modified slightly by the federal district court. These changes, along with a robust series of primaries fought in June, resulted in a significant number of freshman legislators. The balance of power, though, remained stable. House Republicans retained a supermajority of the chamber, while Republicans picked up enough seats to establish a supermajority in the State Senate.

SOUTH CAROLINA SENATE

KEY TAKEAWAYS

 South Carolina moved more Republican, as rural area voting patterns and population growth favored the GOP.

 Republicans gained a supermajority in the State Senate.

 House Republicans maintained their supermajority, holding on to the seats of several members considered vulnerable.

Due to changing voting patterns in rural areas and the explosive growth in population along the coast, Senate Republicans benefitted from a map that allowed them to play offense this year in districts that had previously been heavily Democratic. They succeeded in keeping their existing seats and knocking off four incumbents who had previously represented majority-minority districts to take their numbers to 34 seats, a supermajority in the 46-member body. Although more than a quarter of the upper chamber will be new, Senate rules favor seniority and will ensure that leadership remains consistent next year.

SOUTH CAROLINA HOUSE

In the 124-member House of Representatives, Republicans entered the election with 87 party members, with one vacancy from a resignation. However, 17 Representatives aligned with the far-right Freedom Caucus were not allowed to join the majority caucus after refusing to abide by a set of rules the caucus required for membership. This intraparty ﬁght dominated the previous legislative session and is expected to continue next year based on the election results. After a bitter primary season in June during which both camps of House Republicans hoped for signiﬁcant gains, they largely battled to a stalemate. Although Republicans dominated up and down the ballot in the General Election, the House GOP made no gains and will retain their numbers of 88 members that they had last session.

CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT

South Carolina voters approved an amendment about voter eligibility to the State's Constitution. The amendment will update language in the Constitution, clarifying that only citizens have the right to vote. Republican legislators proposed the change to preempt a court ruling allowing non-citizens to vote. The measure was adopted overwhelmingly.

CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS

South Carolina will again send six Republicans and a single Democrat to Congress. None of the seven races proved competitive in the general election as six incumbents retained their seats. Rep.-elect Sheri Biggs (R), a nurse practitioner and political newcomer, is the only new face in the delegation. She won a tough primary race to replace 3rd District Rep. Jeﬀ Duncan (R), who did not seek reelection.

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

President-elect Trump soundly defeated Vice President Kamala Harris by a vote of 58% to 41%, increasing his margin of victory over President Joe Biden (D) in 2020 and securing the largest margin of victory in a presidential contest since 1988.

GENERAL SUMMATION

South Carolina remains a solidly red state. While the 2024 election will not materially result in any major shifts for the state, there are a few things to watch. Gov Henry McMaster (R), a traditional Republican and a strong partner of the General Assembly, will end his final term in office in two years. The elected GOP leadership has checked all the conservative policy boxes, but has pushed a pro-business, pro-growth agenda that has put it at odds with some of its party base on the right. With open races for governor and other statewide seats in two years, the upcoming fights within the GOP in the Legislature and in primary elections will have a major impact on the future of South Carolina politics and policy.

TEXAS

OV ERVIEW

Republicans will maintain their majority in both chambers of the Texas Legislature, with only a handful of competitive elections. A signiﬁcant number of Texas House members lost competitive and expensive primary campaigns as fallout from a few pivotal votes surrounding school ﬁnance and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton’s impeachment.

The main issues for Texas voters were jobs and the economy, border security, and inﬂation.

GOVERNOR

KEY TAKEAWAYS

 Republicans maintained the majority in the State House and Senate.

 Voters elected 31 new members to the State House and two new members to the State Senate.

 18,623,931 individuals registered to vote.

 The 89th regular legislative session will convene on Jan. 14, 2025, and run until June 2, 2024.

Gov. Greg Abbott (R) is not up for reelection until November 2026. However, he was heavily involved in this year’s election cycle due to his frustration over the failure to pass school choice legislation. Gov. Abbott endorsed 59 House Republicans who supported school choice and endorsed opponents of 10 Republican incumbents who opposed school choice legislation. Of the 10 incumbents, seven were defeated in their respective primaries. The remainder staved oﬀ their wellfunded insurgent challengers.

Gov. Abbott will announce his priority items for the upcoming legislative session in his State of the State address in the early months of the legislative session. He has signaled a continued emphasis on school choice, funding for public education, border security, property tax relief, and strengthening the State’s power grid. There will also be a focus on protecting the oil and gas sector while ensuring the State’s infrastructure and water resources keep pace with population growth.

TEXAS SENATE

The Texas Senate will remain mostly the same, with only three new members joining the higher chamber. The Senate will consist of 20 Republicans and 11 Democrats, with Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (R) serving as President of the Senate.

The two new members introduced to the Texas Senate will represent District 15 and District 30. Senate District 27, located in south Texas, was a notable race between Sen. Morgan LaMantia (D-27) and her Republican opponent, Adam Hinjosa, who managed to ﬂip the seat with 49.4% of votes. The Senate will focus on water infrastructure, school choice, reducing property taxes, illegal immigration, and protecting the integrity of the State’s elections.

TEXAS HOUSE

The House of Representatives will have 31 new members next session. The makeup of the 150-member body will consist of 88 Republicans and 62 Democrats. While many members faced strong opposition, a total of 54 members did not have an opponent this cycle

The notable races during the general election consisted of incumbent Reps. Caroline Harris-Davila (R-52), Angie Chen-Button (R-112), Janie Lopez (R-37), and John Lujan (R-118). There was also an open seat in San Antonio, previously held by Rep. Steve Allison (R-121). Rep. Harris-Davila, a former legislative staﬀer and a freshman during the 2023 legislative session, defeated her Democratic opponent Jennie Birkholz by a ninepoint lead and Rep. Chen-Button, a longtime member, prevailed in her race with 54% of votes and Rep. Lopez maintained victory with 55% of votes. Rep. Lujan managed to keep his seat with 51.8% of votes.

Five Republican members filed for Speaker of the House, yet four dropped out once Rep. David Cook (R-96) consolidated support from the other four announced candidates. The House of Representatives will elect their Speaker on the first day of the legislative session on Jan. 14. The House priorities will mirror those of the Senate and the Governor, with additional focus on rural health care and housing affordability.

CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS

Incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) faced U.S. Rep. Colin Allred (D-TX) in a heavily contested and highly expensive race. Sen. Cruz prevailed with 53.2% of votes, keeping his seat in Republican hands. The Texas Senate campaign has been one of the most expensive and high-proﬁle Senate contests in this election cycle, with the two candidates’ committees raising a combined $166 million. While it was a contentious race, Sen. Cruz received more support than in his previous 2018 election battle against former Democratic Rep. Beto O’Rourke, when he won by only 2.6%.

Of the 38 U.S. House races in Texas, only a handful were competitive. Former Republican State Rep. Craig Goldman defeated his Democratic opponent Trey Hunt by 27 points to succeed Rep. Kay Granger (R-TX), a retiring Republican from the suburbs of north Dallas. Additionally, Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-TX) survived his runoﬀ in May and won the general election by 24.6 points over his opponent Santos Limon. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-TX) was able to win a tight race against former GOP Congresswoman Mayra Flores in south Texas. In all, Texas Republicans will hold 25 seats and Texas Democrats will hold 13 seats in the next Congress.

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

President-elect Donald Trump won Texas, earning a total of 40 electoral votes. Going into Election Day, polls showed President-elect Trump with a ﬁve-point edge over Vice President Kamala Harris. He won with a decisive 56-42 victory. In 2020, former President Joe Biden won 22 counties in Texas, while Vice President Harris only won 12 counties this cycle.

GENERAL SUMMATION

Texas has seen a continued shift from Democratic to Republican in the south Texas region, with Republican candidate Hinojosa claiming victory over the incumbent Sen. LaMantia (D) and Republican candidate Don McLaughlin claiming the District 80 seat, formerly held by longtime Democratic Rep. Tracy King. In Starr County, which is 96% Latino, President-elect Trump won by 16 points, which is a dramatic shift from 2016 when he lost by 60 points.

With redistricting making most seats incumbent-friendly, a majority of the races in Texas were decided in the primary last spring. Every statewide seat will continue to be held by Republicans. Texas continues to be a wishful and illusory target for national Democrats, as Sen. Cruz increased his margin of victory from six years ago, keeping Texas solidly red.

APPENDIX 1: FEDERAL COMPETITIVE GRANT FORECASTING

With the election of President-elect Donald Trump and Vice President-elect JD Vance and a Republicanmajority Senate and House of Representatives, we expect the continuation of many competitive grant programs and executive initiatives from the Trump-Pence Administration, with fewer new competitive funding opportunities. While these are not definitive predictions, we expect competitive grant priorities to align with the topics and programs outlined.

We expect significant legal and political fights over potential federal grants-related actions under a TrumpVance Administration:

 The pause and potential recission of any remaining funding from the Inﬂation Reduction Act.

o The legality of such an action has yet to be determined, and a lengthy court battle would be expected to follow, particularly whether President Trump needs approval from Congress to rescind unspent funds appropriated by Congress. Additionally, there remains a question of whether or not the Trump-Vance Administration would not spend these funds or divert them to projects in other industries like fossil fuels.

o The White House noted in October 2024 that they have awarded $92.5 billion in grants from the IRA, about 80% of the funding available in the ﬁscal year that ended in September.

o The Trump campaign has not elucidated if promises to terminate spending would also mean an eﬀort to eliminate the tax credits or other non-competitive grant provisions, some of which have received praise from Republicans.

 The Department of the Treasury is responsible for writing the rules and regulations implementing the clean energy tax credits.

 A potential ban on federal funding going to local governments that are “sanctuary cities,” as thenPresident Trump did in 2017.

 A potential ban on grants to local law enforcement agencies that decline to take part in mass deportations of undocumented immigrants.

o Ron Vitiello, who was the Acting Director of Immigrations and Customs Enforcement during the Trump-Pence Administration, stated that a second Trump administration would “oﬀer additional funding to state and local police departments that participate in the mass deportations.”

Despite a favorable Senate makeup, any new competitive grant programs will need to be authorized and appropriated, and the House and Senate Appropriations Committees maintain the final say on funding levels for any programs. While the Trump-Pence Administration’s presidential budget requests are referenced throughout the document, appropriators in Congress continue to maintain control over this spending – and have rejected cuts and additions to competitive grant programs proposed in both the Trump and Biden Administration. For example, the Republican-led 115th and 116th Congresses did not implement President Trump’s requested cuts to Department of Energy and Environmental Protection Agency funding. Additionally, under a Republican-controlled Congress, Chairpersons Tom Cole (R-OK) and

Susan Collins (R-ME) have previously supported domestic spending and have not supported budget cuts akin to what Trump has suggested on the campaign trail.

President-elect Trump’s views on impoundment cast a significant shadow over any predictions, as he and his allies have advocated for broad executive powers to cancel federal spending, particularly targeting unilateral funding cuts for organizations like the World Health Organization and initiatives related to green energy. While presidential impoundment has historically been used for routine administrative reasons, it is rarely used to thwart appropriations bills or laws passed by Congress. Under this appro ach, a Trump-Vance Administration may attempt to redirect unspent or unobligated funds from grant programs – though such a move would be highly unusual and likely face significant legal challenges.

Finally, while President Trump has disavowed the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 document, it remains a reference point throughout the document for forecasting potential actions of the incoming administration, especially in areas where public statements have been sparse.

DEPART MENT OF AGRICULTURE

Agriculture policy under a Trump-Vance Administration would likely emphasize increased support for agricultural producers, mirroring many of the Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) policy priorities during his previous term. In 2018, former President Trump signed the Farm Bill into law, providing substantial support for farmer livelihoods, particularly those affected by international tariffs. Some USDA programs under the Trump-Pence Administration, such as the Specialty Crop Block Grant Program, were specifically aimed at helping farmers whose crops were targeted by retaliatory tariffs. While this program was not awarded through a competitive process, it could signal the potential for future crop-specific funding opportunities, possibly triggered by tariff policies. That said, unless an unlikely lame-duck session passes a new Farm Bill, the Trump-Vance Administration will need to work with Congress to pass key agricultural legislation, including the Farm Bill itself.

During his first term, Trump maintained funding for competitive grant programs aimed at rural development, particularly through the Rural Utilities Service. Programs like the Distance Learning & Telemedicine Grant Program, which supports expanding telecommunication access in rural areas, may indicate a continued focus on rural connectivity in future USDA grants. Additionally, then-President Trump increased funding for the Agriculture and Food Research Initiative, a competitive grant program designed to boost rural economies and increase food production. When viewed alongside Trump’s pledge to rescind any unspent IRA funds, these funding patterns suggest that the incoming administration may prioritize grants aimed at enhancing agricultural capacity in rural communities, potentially at the expense of climateconscious farming initiatives.

DEPART MENT OF COMMERCE

Many of the initiatives of the CHIPS and Science Act are expected to progress under a Trump-Vance Administration, with semiconductor production expected to increase in many key states. Both Presidentelect Trump and Vice President-elect JD Vance (R-OH) support onshoring manufacturing jobs through tariffs and other competitive programs. Senator Vance, alongside Senators Mark Kelly (D-AZ) and Tom Cotton (RAR), introduced the bipartisan ONSHORE Act, aimed at reshoring critical supply chains by providing support for site development in communities of all sizes to attract manufacturing facilities. However, while President-elect Trump has expressed national security concerns related to the semiconductor industry –welcoming Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company’s decision to build a factory in Arizona in 2020

– he is unlikely to support further efforts in the semiconductor space, as he and many Republicans argue that the private sector is better suited to meet market demands than government-led initiatives. During his interview on “The Joe Rogan Experience,” President Trump criticized the CHIPS Act’s incentives to corporations, and argued that the federal government should have instead imposed a series of tariffs on chip manufacturers that would have forced them to ramp up domestic production.

On broadband, Senator Vance has been a strong supporter of the Affordable Connectivity Program (ACP), which provided internet discounts to over 23 million Americans before it expired. In January 2024, he cointroduced the ACP Extension Act emphasizing in a press release the program's success in providing internet discounts to 22.5 million households nationwide. On May 9, 2024, Senator Vance urged the Senate to extend ACP funding. highlighting its importance in closing the digital divide and calling for it to be a budget priority. Given his advocacy and bipartisan support in Congress, we anticipate continued interest in providing funding to the ACP under a Trump-Vance Administration, and a continuation of broadbandrelated funding opportunities.

On artificial intelligence (AI) policy, Trump has voiced opposition to strict regulations, citing concerns that they may stifle U.S. competitiveness. Senator Vance shares these concerns, particularly regarding the potential impact on entrepreneurial growth. The Trump-Pence Administration prioritized AI, quantum information science, and 5G as critical areas of national research, launching initiatives aimed at bolstering U.S. leadership in these technologies. Their investments in AI and quantum research, as well as the expansion of 5G – especially in rural areas through the American Broadband Initiative – offer insight into AI-related priorities, including in the competitive grant space. We also expect that the priorities of the American AI Initiative from the Trump-Pence Administration will continue throughout the incoming Administration.

Project 2025 proposes dismantling the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), with options to eliminate its functions, transfer them to other agencies, privatize certain operations, or shift control to individual states and territories. Similarly, the Trump-Pence Administration called for revoking the 30×30 Executive Order and the America the Beautiful Initiative. They also proposed converting the National Weather Service into a Performance-Based Organization, though these recommendations were never enacted. That being said, we do not expect any significant dismantling of NOAA and their competitive funding opportunities, but a likely realignment from the Biden-Harris Administration’s priorities.

Finally, we anticipate that a Trump-Vance Administration is likely to steer the Economic Development Agency (EDA) toward supporting rural communities, potentially through an initiative akin to Opportunity Zones. During the Trump-Pence Administration, EDA’s Opportunity Zones initiative, created under the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, incentivized investments in distressed areas by offering tax benefits. EDA invested nearly $347 million across 239 projects to support economic development in designated Opportunity Zones under the Trump-Pence Administration. Although not predominantly competitive funding, this offers insight into how some Republicans envision EDA’s role in stimulating local economies.

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY/ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY

A Trump-Vance Administration may seek to divert or impound funds from grant programs supporting renewable energy, clean energy initiatives or highlighting environmental justice. Additionally, they have expressed interest in pausing the distribution of any remaining competitive funding from the IRA, IIJA, and the CHIPS and Science Act; by law, presidents are required to spend money in the way that Congress has appropriated it, but an examination of unobligated money is not out of the ordinary during a transition of administration. Such actions could jeopardize programs like the DOE's Home Energy Rebate Program –currently underutilized by states – and the DOE Hydrogen Hubs, with only two hubs having finalized their agreements to date.

Private investment that was encouraged by the IRA may also slow, especially given the high likelihood of the Trump-Vance Administration not offering some of the law’s tax credits or financial incentives to private companies. A Politico analysis of 75 projects that were funded as a result of the IRA found that 21 sites already reported experiencing delays or “acknowledged monitoring potential delays,” with three projects being canceled entirely. Many of these companies are awaiting guidance on various tax credits or publicprivate partnerships, the vast majority of which are not expected to continue in a Trump-Vance Administration. That being said, given that many of these projects are in early construction phases or have received permits or planning approvals, it may be politically unpopular (especially among House members) to pause or cancel these projects.

Although Donald Trump has expressed opposition to the IRA, many Congressional Republicans and Republican-allied business groups have resisted his calls for a full repeal. Several Congressional Republicans, including Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-LA), have advocated for preserving certain clean energy tax credits from the IRA. In Speaker Johnson's 100-day plan for a Trump presidency, he outlines a repeal of what he calls “wasteful Green New Deal tax credits and anti-energy regulations.” Taken together, this means that competitive grant opportunities with an explicit focus on addressing climate change issues will decrease under a Trump-Vance Administration, but other tax credits may remain or potentially be expanded.

After taking office in 2017, the Trump-Pence Administration proposed a 5.3% reduction in DOE funding compared to the previous year, as well as 65% reduction in the Renewables Office budget request. However, Congress rejected these cuts, instead increasing funding for DOE clean energy initiatives, including a 14% boost for renewable energy projects. This discrepancy between proposed and appropriated DOE budgets under the Trump-Pence Administration highlights how Congress may continue to act as a check on proposed spending cuts in the event of a second Trump presidency. It also underscores that presidential budget requests are often more symbolic, serving as messaging documents rather than definitive policy implementations. However, if President Trump’s desired DOE budgets were to be enacted, it could pose risks to funding opportunities from subagencies like the Office of Science (including the Advance Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E)) and the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, including the Industrial Sustainability, Energy Efficiency, and Decarbonization (ISEED) Collaborative.

We anticipate cuts to competitive EPA programs under the Trump-Vance Administration, especially those focused on climate resiliency and environmental justice. In 2017, the Trump-Pence Administration briefly froze EPA grants and contracts – though the freeze only lasted a month, it highlights the uncertainty surrounding the future of EPA competitive grants in a Trump presidency, as such actions don’t require congressional approval. Throughout the Trump-Pence Administration, the White House proposed drastic cuts to the EPA, and offices and programs related to climate action research received the largest reductions in proposed budgets. For instance, President Trump’s FY17 budget called for a 31% reduction in EPA funding, 113

halving the budget for the EPA Science Office, and slashing the Office of Research and Development’s funding by $250 million, down from the previous years $488 million. Although Congress rejected these cuts and passed a budget that preserved nearly all EPA funding while boosting renewable energy programs, a second Trump presidency could see shifts in funding priorities. Competitive EPA research grants may remain, but their focus will likely change.

Although EPA funding opportunities were more limited under the Trump-Pence Administration compared to the Biden-Harris Administration, certain programs continued to receive annual support. These included Wetland Program Development Grants, the Healthy Communities Grant Program, Brownfields Cleanup projects, and various workforce development grants, indicating potential areas where competitive grants might persist under a Trump-Vance Administration. While it is unclear which specific DOE grant programs or subagencies would see increased funding in a second Trump Administration, we expect that those related to domestic energy production could receive additional funding. Additionally, while the Biden-Harris Administration has standardized Community Benefits Plans in DOE grant applications to highlight community and labor engagement, DEI, investment in quality jobs and the Justice40 initiative, we do not expect such requirements to continue in a Trump-Vance Administration.

DEPART MENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES

During his first term, President Trump proposed significant cuts to both block grant programs and competitive grant programs, including Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF), graduate medical education funding, and the Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP). He did, however, increase funding for Certified Community Behavioral Health Clinics (CCBHCs), and request greater funding to block grant and competitive grant programs related to rural health (through the Office of Rural Health Policy), telehealth, and to combat opioid crisis.

The Trump-Pence Administration’s FY21 budget request for HHS provides significant intel into what programs and topic areas would see support in a Trump-Vance Administration. One of the most significant new grant programs that was proposed was a one-time $1 billion fund for competitive grants to states to “increase child care services for underserved populations and stimulate employer investment in child care was proposed.” This program would be run through the Child Care and Development Fund. The FY21 budget also provides significant funding for grants to combat the opioid crisis: increasing the State Opioid Response program funding to $1.6 billion ($85 million above FY 2020) for grants to States and tribes to “address opioids and methamphetamine, and other stimulants.” In the same vein, the Rural Communities Opioids Response Program, the Telehealth Network Grant Program, and the Telehealth Center of Excellence Program all received funding increases from FY20. These three programs all align with President Trump’s Executive Order on improving rural health and telehealth, emphasizing their elevated profile. We also may see a renewed focus on foster care and child welfare: the FY21 budget proposed to expand the Regional Partnership Grant program by $40 million each year and increase by $30 million each year the Court Improvement Program, which helps courts improve practices and comply with new mandates in the Family First Act.

While President Trump has disavowed the report, Project 2025 has dedicated significant energy in their HHS section to competitive grants, suggesting creating a Healthy Marriage and Relationship Education (HMRE) Program, which would provide state-level grants for high school education on topics like on heathy marriages, sexual risk avoidance, and healthy relationships. In relation to Title X, Project 2025 advocates for reframing family planning programs to emphasize fertility awareness and holistic approaches to family planning. Specifically, it calls for the Office of Population Affairs to eliminate “religious discrimination” in grant selections to protect religious freedom for healthcare workers and participants and urges Congress 114

to prohibit any organization that performs or funds abortion from receiving family planning grants. However, despite these priorities, there is little to no direct intel from the Trump-Vance campaign that would suggest that they aim to fulfill these policy goals. That being said, given HHS’s priorities during President Trump’s first term, we expect a prioritization of rural health and telehealth.

DEPART MENT OF HOUSING AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT

During the Trump-Pence Administration, significant budget cuts were proposed for several Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) programs, many of which were not passed in the appropriations bills. In 2019, HUD faced a proposed $6.8 billion reduction in funding – a 14.2% decrease from 2017 levels. These cuts primarily targeted non-defense discretionary programs, with a substantial portion affecting Section 8 rental assistance and public housing programs. Additionally, the FY20 budget proposed by the Trump-Pence Administration sought to eliminate the Community Development Block Grant (CDBG) and HOME Investment Partnerships programs, which provide funds to local governments for affordable housing and community development projects.

However, HUD under the Trump-Pence Administration also introduced the Opportunity Zones Program, which established through the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Opportunity Zones are economically distressed areas where new investments may qualify for preferential tax treatment, provided they meet certain conditions. Localities become eligible for Opportunity Zone status through state nomination and certification by the Secretary of the Treasury via their delegation authority to the Internal Revenue Service. Additionally, many competitive and block grants, including CDBG, HOME, Emergency Solutions Grant (ESG), and Housing Opportunities for Persons with AIDS (HOPWA), included set-asides or offered preferential treatment for projects located in Opportunity Zones. We expect a similar incentive program to be introduced, perhaps benefitting predominantly rural communities.

DEPART MENT OF LABOR

During the Trump-Pence Administration, many large Department of Labor (DOL) grants, such as YouthBuild, Strengthening Community Colleges Training Grants (which launched in 2020), and Reentry Projects, continued to be competed without significant funding reductions, despite the President's Budget Requests often proposing cuts. However, while the Bureau of International Labor Affairs continued releasing funding opportunities, the Trump-Pence FY18 budget proposed eliminating the Bureau's entire competitive grants program, valued at approximately $60 million. Additionally, the Administration aimed to redirect federal job training funds to states, localities, and employers, which included cutting technical assistance grants and the Senior Community Service Employment Program, which they deemed ineffective.

An examination of the 2016 and 2017 Notices of Funding Opportunity (NOFOs) for YouthBuild, one of DOL’s largest competitive funding opportunities, provides insight to the Trump-Pence Administration’s priorities, which may continue into a Trump-Vance Administration. During this period, YouthBuild applications located in Promise Zone Initiative regions and those emphasizing construction skills training received priority consideration. Applicants for one track were required to submit a Construction Training Plan as part of the project narrative. Under the Biden-Harris Administration, while construction skills are still mentioned in YouthBuild NOFOs, they no longer receive the same priority treatment.

Finally, given the Trump-Pence Administration’s focus on expanding apprenticeship programs through Executive Order 13801, we anticipate grant opportunities in a Trump-Vance Administration to include merit criteria related to the promotion of apprenticeships.

DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE

During the Trump-Pence Administration, competitive grant recipients were required to comply with federal laws regarding mandating the exchange of immigration status information between federal and local authorities. This policy sought to restrict funding to "sanctuary cities" that refused to cooperate with Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). The Department of Justice (DOJ) imposed three conditions on Byrne Justice Assistance Grant (JAG) recipients:

1. Certifying compliance with immigration laws.

2. Allowing ICE access to detention facilities.

3. Notifying ICE of detainee releases.

We expect there to be discussions of a similar initiative, as news reporting has suggested the possibility of a ban on federal grants to local law enforcement agencies that decline to take part in mass deportations of undocumented immigrants. Furthermore, Ron Vitiello, the Acting Director of Immigrations and Customs Enforcement during the Trump-Pence Administration, told NBC News that a second Trump administration would “offer additional funding to state and local police departments that participate in the mass deportations.” This is in line with a key priority of the DOJ section of Project 2025, which recommends an overhaul of the Department of Justice (DOJ) grant application process, advocating for more rigorous vetting, although it does not provide specific details regarding immigration enforcement conditions.

We expect a Trump-Vance Administration would maintain many of the DOJ's annually recurring grants at similar funding levels. These include the Byrne Justice Assistance Grants program and Community Oriented Policing Services (COPS) grants, which saw increased funding for local police hiring during the Trump-Pence Administration. Project Safe Neighborhoods, which also received increased funding under Trump-Pence to support federal prosecutions for gun and gang crimes, is likely to remain a priority. The program was reauthorized for FY24-FY28 at $50 million under the Project Safe Neighborhoods Grant Program Authorization Act of 2023, aligning with current appropriations.

DEPART MENT OF TRANSPORTATION

In the incoming Trump-Vance Administration, the Department of Transportation (DOT) will likely prioritize roadway development projects, with a particular emphasis on directing grant funding to rural areas. During the Trump-Pence Administration, funding from the Better Utilizing Investments to Leverage Development (BUILD) program (now known as the Rebuilding American Infrastructure with Sustainability and Equity (RAISE) program) was primarily allocated to rural road projects, with only about 10% going to transit projects in the first two years. The administration also favored capacity expansion projects, such as new roads and road widenings, over multimodal initiatives aimed at reducing emissions through walking, biking, or other transit modes. In general, Former President Trump was more supportive of these roadway capacity building projects compared to Former President Obama or President Biden. If reelected, we can expect a similar focus on road infrastructure under a Trump-Vance Administration. Additionally, there will likely be a continued emphasis on directing funds to state departments of transportation, a priority that was prevalent during his first term and is commonly supported by Republicans.

While the TIGER, BUILD, and RAISE programs share similar goals of promoting the expansion and repair of American infrastructure, their objectives and grant awards reflect differing transportation policy priorities across administrations. Under the Trump-Pence Administration, the BUILD grant program focused heavily on expanding infrastructure in rural areas. Though eligible applicants included most state, local, and tribal governments, a significant portion of funding was directed away from urban communities and toward

building new roads in rural areas. As a result, DOT programs specifically designed for rural projects, such as the Rural Surface Transportation Grant Program, could be prioritized over programs focused on climate sustainability in a Trump-Vance Administration, albeit with different merit criteria than those under the Biden-Harris Administration.

While sustainability was included in BUILD's merit criteria, it was largely focused on improving water quality and reducing congestion-related emissions, rather than broader climate goals. Additionally, the program emphasized expanding transportation choices to increase individual mobility and improve access to essential services in rural communities. This approach to infrastructure investment is likely to continue under the Trump-Vance Administration, offering insights into how future DOT competitive funding opportunities might be allocated.

The role of Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) will also likely be reshaped under the incoming administration. Project 2025 states that FHWA should not fund non-highway projects – such as ferryboat terminals, hiking trails, bicycle lanes, and local sidewalks – arguing that these responsibilities belong to local and state governments. The report claims that federal involvement in such projects “adds red tape and bureaucratic delays.” Rep. Sam Graves (R-MO) agreed with this assertion for DOT writ large, supporting the Trump-Vance Administration to more narrowly define the federal government’s responsibilities for infrastructure, with a focus on roadway expansion projects, the Interstate Highway System and important navigation channels. Similarly, Project 2025 also calls for the next administration to move away from the Biden-Harris Administration’s focus on equity and carbon dioxide emissions in grant awards, stating that such requirements fall outside of FHWA’s statutory authority – an issue we anticipate Republicans to seize to narrow the scope.

On the campaign trail, both President-elect Trump and Vice President-elect Vance have made pledges to reduce federal regulatory control over the trucking industry. This commitment to deregulation may lead to decreased federal oversight and funding for the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration should there be a Trump-Vance administration.

Another uncertain aspect of a Trump-Vance Administration would be how President Trump might exert authority over grant programs that have been authorized and appropriated but not yet disbursed. While it would be hard to claw back obligated money, the DOT could modify the criteria for the funds in future NOFOs. According to a Politico analysis, 30% of the $1.1 trillion in spending from transportation-related bills passed under the Biden-Harris Administration does not become available until FY25 or later. This could involve the Administration deprioritizing merit criteria related to equity or environmental justice, as well as reducing technical assistance for low-income communities.

Finally, we anticipate fewer competitive grant opportunities related to transportation and infrastructure under a Trump-Vance Administration (as compared to the Biden-Harris Administration), although many current large grant programs are expected to continue, albeit with different priorities or potentially under new names.

APPENDIX 2 : KEY POSTELECTION TIMELINE

APPENDIX 3 : OUTGOING MEMBERS

SENATE REPUBLICANS

Mike Braun, IN (elected Governor)

Mitt Romney, UT (retiring)

JD Vance, OH (elected Vice President)

SENATE DEMOCRATS

Sherrod Brown, OH (lost general)

Laphonza Butler, CA (retiring)

Ben Cardin, MD (retiring)

Tom Carper, DE (retiring)

George Helmy, NJ (retiring)

Debbie Stabenow, MI (retiring)

Jon Tester, MT (lost general)

SENATE INDEPENDENTS

Joe Manchin, WV (retiring)

Kyrsten Sinema, AZ (retiring)

HOUS E REPUBLICANS

Kelly Armstrong, ND-AL (elected Governor)

Jim Banks, IN-3 (elected to Senate)

Michael Burgess, TX-26 (retiring)

Dan Bishop, NC-8 (ran for Attorney General)

Larry Bucshon, IN-8 (retiring)

Jerry Carl, AL-1 (lost primary)

Lori Chavez-DeRemer, OR-5 (lost general)

John Curtis, UT-3 (elected to Senate)

Anthony D’Esposito, NY-4 (lost general)

Jeff Duncan, SC-3 (retiring)

Drew Ferguson, GA-3 (retiring)

Mike Garcia, CA-27 (lost general)

Garret Graves, LA-6 (retiring)

Jennifer González-Colón, PR-AL (elected Governor)

Bob Good, VA-5 (retiring)

Kay Granger, TX-12 (retiring)

Doug Lamborn, CO-5 (retiring)

Jake LaTurner, KS-2 (retiring)

Debbie Lesko, AZ-8 (retiring)

Blaine Luetkemeyer, MO-3 (retiring)

Cathy McMorris Rodgers, WA-5 (retiring)

Patrick McHenry, NC-10 (retiring)

Marc Molinaro, NY-19 (lost general)

Alex Mooney, WV-2 (ran for Senate)

Greg Pence, IN-6 (retiring)

Bill Posey, FL-8 (retiring)

Matt Rosendale, MT-2 (retiring)

Brad Wenstrup, OH-2 (retiring)

Brandon Williams, NY-22 (lost general)

HOUS E DEMOCRATS

Collin Allred, TX-32 (ran for Senate)

Earl Blumenauer, OR-3 (retiring)

Lisa Blunt Rochester, DE-AL (elected to Senate)

Jamaal Bowman, NY-16 (lost primary)

Cori Bush, MO-1 (lost primary)

Yadira Caraveo, CO-8 (lost general)

Tony Cárdenas, CA-29 (retiring)

Matt Cartwright, PA-8 (lost general)

Anna Eshoo, CA-16 (retiring)

Ruben Gallego, AZ-3 (running for Senate)

Jeff Jackson, NC-14 (elected Attorney General)

Dan Kildee, MI-8 (retiring)

Derek Kilmer, WA-6 (retiring)

Andy Kim, NJ-3 (elected to Senate)

Annie Kuster, NH-2 (retiring)

Barbara Lee, CA-12 (ran for Senate)

Kathy Manning, NC-6 (retiring)

Grace Napolitano, CA-31 (retiring)

Wiley Nickel, NC-13 (retiring)

Dean Phillips, MN-3 (ran for President)

Katie Porter, CA-47 (ran for Senate)

Dutch Ruppersberger, MD-2 (retiring)

Gregorio Sablan, MP-AL (retiring)

John Sarbanes, MD-3 (retiring)

Adam Schiff, CA-30 (elected to Senate)

Elissa Slotkin, MI-7 (elected to Senate)

Abigail Spanberger, VA-7 (running for Governor)

David Trone, MD-6 (ran for Senate)

Jennifer Wexton, VA-10 (retiring)

Susan Wild, PA-7 (lost general)

APPENDIX 4 : INCOMING MEMBERS

SENATE REPUBLICANS

Jim Banks, IN

Jim Justice, WV

Bernie Moreno, OH

Tim Sheehy, MT

SENATE DEMOCRATS

Angela Alsobrooks, MD

Lisa Blunt Rochester, DE

Andy Kim, NJ

Adam Schiff, CA

Elissa Slotkin, MI

HOUSE REPUBLICANS

Tom Barrett, MI-7

Michael Baumgartner, WA-5

Robert Bresnahan, PA - 8

Sheri Biggs, SC-3

Jeff Crank, CO-5

Gabe Evans, CO - 8

Troy Downing, MT-2

Julie Fedorchak, ND-AL

Brandon Gill, TX-26

Craig Goldman, TX-12

Abraham Hamadeh, AZ - 8

Mike Haridopolos, FL-8

Pat Harrigan, NC-10

Mark Harris, NC-8

Brian Jack, GA-3

Mike Kennedy, UT-3

Brad Knott, NC-13

Ryan Mackenzie, PA - 7

John McGuire, VA-5

Addison McDowell, NC-6

Mark Messmer, IN-8

Riley Moore, WV-2

Tim Moore, NC-14

Bob Onder, MO-3

Derek Schmidt, KS-2

Jefferson Shreve, IN-6

Marlin Stutzman, IN-3

David Taylor, OH-2

Tony Wied, WI-8

HOUSE DEMOCRATS

Yassamin Ansari, AZ-3

Wesley Bell, MO-1

Janelle Bynum, OR-5

Herb Conaway, NJ-3

Gil Cisneros, CA-31

Maxine Dexter, OR-3

Sarah Elfreth, MD-3

Cleo Fields, LA-6

Shomari Figures, AL-2

Laura Friedman, CA-30

Laura Gillen, NY-4

Maggie Goodlander, NH-2

Julie Johnson, TX-32

George Latimer, NY-16

Sam Liccardo, CA-16

John Mannion, NY-22

Sarah McBride, DE-AL

April McClain Delaney, MD-6

Kristen McDonald Rivet, MI-8

Kelly Morrison, MN-3

John Olszewski, MD-2

Nellie Pou, NJ-9

Emily Randall, WA-6

Josh Riley, NY-19

Luz Rivas, CA-29

Lateefah Simon, CA-12

Suhas Subramanyam, VA-10

Sylvester Turner, TX-18

Eugene Vindman, VA-7

APPENDIX 5 : PUBLIC AFFAIRS & COMMUNICATIONS INSIGHTS

THE ELECT ION IS OVER. NOW WHAT?

Donald Trump has been elected the 47th president of the United States, but there are still results pending across the country. While there is still uncertainty, one thing is constant: the political landscape is changing. However, no matter which party controls the White House, Congress, or State Legislatures, there are best practices that public affairs and communications practitioners should deploy as they prepare for the new political environment we’re about to enter.

These strategies can help position an organization to not only adapt to changes but also capitalize on new opportunities to shape the narrative and dialogue as the political landscape shifts. Whether it’s in the halls of Congress and the White House or to state capitals and city halls across the country, use these strategies to navigate post-election complexities.

Update Stakeholder Engagement Strategies: Build or strengthen relationships with key stakeholders, including policymakers, regulators, NGOs, and industry influencers. Identify new champions in the incoming administration and the new Congress, state legislatures and city halls who may have an interest in your industry. Understand which voices outside of government are influential with those champions. Tailor your engagement strategies to align with policymakers’ priorities and demonstrate how your organization's goals align with their policy objectives.

Adapt Messaging to Align with the New Political Landscape: Refresh your organization's messaging to resonate with the priorities and language of the incoming leadership. Amplify the value your organization provides in addressing the issues that are top of mind for your key stakeholders – and make sure they see and hear those messages.

Develop Crisis and Issue Management Plans: Establish a clear process for crisis communication that involves rapid response and proactive issue management. A new political landscape can result in surprises in the news cycle. A tweet by a high-profile leader or stakeholder can put your issues at the forefront of policy discussions in an instant. Be prepared to address potential issues that impact your business by having key messages ready for the media and stakeholders to maintain control of the narrative if your issues are in the mix for new legislation or executive actions.

Increase Visibility and Thought Leadership: Position your organization and its executives as thought leaders on issues relevant to your key stakeholders. This can be done through publishing white papers, opinion pieces, or participating in panels and discussions that highlight your organization’s expertise. Engaging in public dialogue helps build credibility and demonstrates your organization's proactive approach to adapting to the new political environment.

Deep Dive Policy Analysis: Be smart about where your advantages and weaknesses are on the policy front with the onset of a new political environment. Conducting a comprehensive policy impact analysis will help your team and leadership understand the potential impact of new policies, regulations, and

legislative priorities at the local, state and federal levels. Understanding shifts in key committees, leadership positions, and their policy priorities is critical to mapping out an effective strategy that will benefit and protect your organization.

For more insights on effective public affairs and communications strategies, please subscribe to the Cornerstone Public Affairs newsletter, The Briefing Room. Cornerstone’s Public Affairs team is available to provide guidance to help shape organizations’ strategies, adapt messaging, and engage effectively with key stakeholders.

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