NARI6 Annual Convention/Exposition
ruary 26-28,1987
Washington, D.C. Convention Center
Washington, D.C.
The National Association of the Remodeling lndustry6 1987 convention/exposition is shaping up as the largest show ever sponsored by NARI6 and you willwant to be a part of this exciting event. You willexperience firsthand .
. new and improved products
. 150,000 square feet of exhibits
o educationalseminars
o family program
o sights and sounds of Washington, D.C.
NARI6'87 is the VOICE OF THE REMODELING INDUSTRY and we invite you to participate. Send for more information today!
Complete this form and send to:
National Association of the Remodeling Industry6
1901 North Moore Street, Suite 808 Arlington, Virginia 22209
Attn: Registration (703) 276-7600
hrblisher David Cutler
EditorJuanita Lovret
Asslstant Editor Dn id lbenig
Contributirg Editors
Du'ight Curran o Gage McKinnq
Art Director Manha Enrry
Stalf ArtisC Carole Shinn
Circulation Dorothea Creegan
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BUILDING PRODUCTS DIGLST is an irulep<ndenth,-aned publicatim for rhe rcmil, dnlesle and distibutiott lavk {the lunfur <uul hone cenkr nndtets itr 13 kxahem sntes-
I N A recent session of informalshop talk we I heard voiced a theory that we've heard many times before. Namely, that there is a surprisingly high percentage of nice people in the wood products business.
This being the hotiday season. good cheer and all that, it seemed an appropriate time to take note of this seeming phenomenon. Not for any collective sense of smugness on the part of an entire industry, but because it's interesting to speculate as to why it might be true.
Those who place the men and women in the lumber industry in the good guy (good person?) category often allude to the high number of transactions done on a handshake, word-of-mouth basis, claiming the untrustworthy are eventually weeded out. The wood business is among the oldest in the U.S. and so has a continuity, with sons and daughters who carry on the business each generation. Ethereal arguments also claim that the natural qualities of the products are somehow respon-
sible and that the business just seems to attract and keep nice people.
Of course, cynics laugh and hoot at the whole thing. To them the quick pay cuslomer is the good guy. The resr are just yokels waiting to be sold something. Cynics feel the so-calted trustworthiness in the lumber business is just a function of its backwardness and they can quickly produce a stack of unpaid bills to bolster their position. Tales of flawed rransactions are legion, they claim.
We can't imagine there is a scientific answer to this question. Nor is anyone likely to prove or disprove the contention with any finality. But one thing we do know for sure. ihe number of friendly, likable people we encounrer in this business far outweighs the other kind. We hope you've also found this to be true and that your year has been brightened by customers and co-workers.
Seasons greetings and best wishes from all of us at Building Products Digest.
Karl W. Lindberg has been appointed to succeed William R. Ganser Jr. as president of the Southern Forest Products Association, New Orleans, La. Ganser retires at the end of this month.
Lindberg has been vice President of marketing at SFPA. Stan E. Elberg, formerly treated markets manager, is his successor.
Carl Jessup, Weyerhaeuser vice president for North Carolina, was elected as the new SFPA chairman at the annual meeting. Harold Maxwell, Temple-Eastex Inc., is the new vice chairman; John Nichols, AT&N Lumber Service, treasurer. Lionel Landry was re-elected secretary.
tUhen Vou uJont the highcst quolitg ovoiloblo in CCR TVpe C Pressure Treoted lumbor, coll
Following the theme of the meeting "Hats Off to Quality," Bart Diliddo, consultant, PhiliP Crosby Associates, noted that "any erosion of quality and productivity also erodes America's competitive position around the world." He said that quality can not be insPected into a product, but must be built in during the manufacturing process. "Quality isn't just an added costit's a real money maker," he concluded.
Gene Parker, vice president of Westvaco Lumber Co. Division, and two of his managers, Gene Hundley and Joe Friday, reviewed their company's commitment to quality. Parker pointed out that the real key to improved quality is turning out a "quality consistent" pro-
duct day in and day out.
An annual demand of ll.9 billion bf of southern pine lumber bY 1996-2000 was predicted bY Bernard Fuller, Resource Information Systems, Inc., His report forecast pressure treated lumber as the largest area of growth, an increased share of the national lumber market for the south and continued growth in the repair and remodeling market.
The meeting was held in Innisbrook, Tarpon SPrings, Fl., Oct. 14.-17.
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Even thoughhousing starts likely will decline somewhat in the coming year, single family residential construction should remain strong as long as lnterest rates are affordable.
Remodeling /repair and additions m.arkets, which are already strong, will become even more important to building products manufacturers and distributors in the future. Continued strength and activity of this market, regardless of economic conditions, are an important hedge against the cyclicality of new coistruction. We also will see more opportunities for new product development to meet the specific needs of this market.
Continued technological improvements also will remain an Lmportant factor in industry growth. Because of increased efliciencies in our plants and mills, we can make plywood more economicallv than we did a decade ago. The adlent of new, highly cost-effective structural panels, such as waferboard and oriented strand board. is evidence of the industry's major offensive to reduce housing costs. This progressive trend will continue as
Single family construction strong... R&R even more important. . continued technological improvements. .. weak pricing short term. .. effects of new tax law.
will our ability to increase yield from our raw materials.
These are the kinds of improvements that have strengthened our industry's position as suppliers in global markets. Worldwide. the United States remains the premier supplier of building products, and in the coming years, we will continue to solidify that position.
There will be many oppor- tunities to expand our markets in the future, yet some formidable challenges will shape the way we will do business.
Foremost among these challenges is the new tax reform Iaw, which will force us to realign our priorities in several areas. The repeal of the investment tax credit is a severe blow to expansion and modernization programs crucial not only to improving production and quality standards, but also to maintaining our competitive edge. New capital investment programs will be even more carefully scrutinized for their ability to generate adequate returns.
An extended period of lower
U.S.-dollar exchange rates will make American-made products even more attractive to foreign buyers. We must. however. continue to press for equitable treatment of U.S. exports in world markets. For a level playing field to develop, international markets must be as open to competitive U.S. goods as our own markets are readily accessible to foreign goods.
Weak pricing also will likely continue challenging our industry in the months ahead because ofovercapacity in lumber and plywood production. The preliminary l5o/o countervailing duty recently imposed on Canadian softwood lumber imports should ease the lumber pncrng squeeze somewhat, but until demand comes into line with capacity, producers will be hard pressed to increase profit margins.
Investments in new facilities will be fewer in our current environment, with future expansion most likely through acquisition and upgrading existing facilities. The volatility of market conditions makes il increasingly difficult to anticipate future capacity needs, so any co-mmitment of capital to large greenfield projects will be eiamined even more closely than in the past.
These challenges, however, do not dampen our optimism, but rather reinforce the necessitv to take advantage of current pbssibilities. There are ample oppor- tunities ahead for growth in sales and profits.
A L. :,'3#'gll;i*,? Lil,?,,'1; the_ building products industry for 1987 and the rest of the decade.
I F we'vg learned one lesson I from 1986, it's that making economic predictions in these unsettled times is like Predicting the
velocity and progress of an elevator: with so many different hands on the controls, all you can say with certainty is that there will be ups and downs!Still. when I
recently, and where it has the potential to go, I'm willing to Predict slow upward movement continuing through next Year' Nat'ionally, of course. we will be adjusting to the new tax bill. Right now it's like a stone that has just been dropped into a Pooli and nobody really knows how far the rionles will spread. But despite the disincentive -for capital spending represented bY the loss of the investment tax credit, I don't think the net effect of the bill will be a big nes,ative. I doubt it will make a maior difference in the overall busineis climate for 1987.
Interest rates will be held down as the Fed continues to maintain the money suPPlY near current levels. The trade deficit may see some reduction due to a weaker dollar, but what Congress will do to meet next year's Gramm-Rudman reduction target is anybody's guess. Mirrors and moonbeams lose their magic once election Year is over. and-rumors of new taxes are already rampant. Some form of consumPtion tax, or "value added" tax' will probably be considered for levy on imported goods. and might Prove ooiitically- appealing because it would give relief to beleaguered domestit industries like textiles and foodstuffs. By taxing sPending, it would also take a bite out of the "underground economY" that has managed to evade income taxes. I will be very surprised if we see any further income tax changes for the remainder of the Reagan administration.
When we look at sPecific industries and areas of the countrY, it's clear that we're not all riding on the same economic elevator' In 1986
both the East and West coasts fared better than the heartland, while the oil patch has, as the song saYs. been "down so long it looks like uP." But I believe the worst is over. When the elevator is at basement level, there's only one direction it can go.
In our own building suPPlY/ home center industrY, two economic factors effectively channeled investment away from home enhancement projects in 1986. One was the popularity of mortgage
Tax bill will make little difference in business climate interest rates will remain down... continuing stable single family housing starts . . warehouse wars over.
refinancing in the first half of the vear. and the other was the irresistible 2.9Vo auto financing offered bY General Motors and countered bY Ford and AMC. Consumers who took advantage of those oPPortunities are heading into the new year with comfortable mortgag.e and auto payments, and theY will again have income to devote to fixit-up proiects.
I should expand at or slightlY above the national rate in 1987. Fading construction, along with a re-
(Please turn to page 37)
By James A. Pihera Vice President The Citizens and Southern CorP.boomed in the region as contracts for nonresidential building rose from lofty 1984 heights in six of seven states. Housing Permits reached levels last seen in the early I 970s.
Housine starts for 1987 will be in the range of t.S to 1.6 million, and I predict continuation of the recent iemarkable stability in starts of single family units. Prior severe fluctuations were caused by the lack of the "two A's:" availability and affordability of mortgages. Now the availability problem has been eased bv mortsase-backed bonds that tap the natidnal market, bypassing local savings and loans. Lower interest bound in manufacturing and agriculture, will encourage a geographic growth flip-flop within the region.
The economy of the Southeast grew a little faster than the WrA' W nnlisnal economy in 1985. This came about as the service-oriented economies of
Florida and Atlanta grew quite a bit more rapidly than the more manufacturing-oriented remainder of the region (Georgia outside Atlanta, Alabama, MississiPPi, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee). Construction
Southeast economy growth slightly above national rate slower growth in Atlanta and Florida construction willwane manufacturing will turn the corner.
ln 1987, economic growth in the Southeast should again be close to the national average, possibly a little better. And an even higher
(Please turn to Page 30)
OTH THE real and the perceived quality of southern pine lumber will continue to improve in 1987, satisfying customers
'&\u and producers alike.
The real quality of southern pine lumber will continue to improve as mem- bers of the Southern Forest Products Association (SFPA) -
.- I step up their quality control efforts, and increasingly make products customers need rather than those easy to make.
The perceived quality of southern pine lumber willcontinue to improve as producersstop trying to force commodity gradej in
specialty markets where appearance and accurate strength values are major factors. When commodity framing grades are used for treatei decks or roof trusses. the customer',s complaint is not really about quality as much as having thb wrong product for the job at hand. These are important-distinctions. And pulling these distinctions in
Southern pine quality will escalate dramatically next year . .5Oo/" grouith in treated wood demand... market fo, cus moves from housing dog-fight between Canadian imports and competitors.
opposite directions are the traditional markets for southern pine lumber and the newer markets.
Housing is the traditional market, of course. The industry has long watched the levet of housine starts as a barometer of lumbei demand. But two things are hap- pening with housing: levels are dbclining due to demographic shifts; and that market is less critical for southern pine lumber as new markets have been cultivated.
Today, the southern pine lumber market is divided into thirds: a third for treated lumber; a third for components or engineered systems; and a third for commodity lumber for framing.
Nationwide, the demand for treated lumber has more than tripled since 1975 to more than five bifiion board feet this year. Abour four billion board feet of that is southern pine, used for decks, patios and fences and permanent wood foundations. It's a booming market, with_^industry forecasters looking for 500/o more growth in tolal treatl ed wood demand through the balance of this centurv.
Engineered wo6d systems are also growing, as architects and builders turn to wood as a compo- nent material more aesthetically pleasing and less costly than metai.
Both the treated and the compo- nent markets draw upon southern plqg's unique advantages of treatability and high strength values. As producers aim more squarely at these two markets, they will turn out lumber suited to those uses and make sure commodity framing grades aren'l forced to play a role they aren't up to.
T
HE ECoNoMl' in 1986 has I been a series ofsurprises to virtually-everyone. Few people expec- ted $10 per barrel oil'or ihe subse-
quent rebirth of OPEC. Few people thought that there would be tax reform of any kind in an election year. A number of economists expected a lower dollar to revive domestic production.
They also thought that lower interest rates would be the needed stimulus to jump-start the economy out of the sluggish period of the past I 8 months. These are just a sample of events that did not proceed quite according to the prevailing wisd'om. However, if we examine the impact of these events on the economy in
1986, it may give us some idea as to what to expect in 1987. Against this backdrop of a conservative business sector and overextended consumer, it is difficult to build a case for the impending eco- nomic rebound which has-been forecasted since the beginning of the year. If the 1986 peiformance (l'leust' tunt to page 30)
Story at a Glance
lmproved trade deficit. .. low inffation ...2o/o real GNp... possible cut in interest rates ... improved economic activity late in year. .limited residential construction improvement.
Result: the real and the per- ceived quality of southern pine lumber will escalate dramatiiallv next year and in the year's thereafter.
It can be anticipated thar southern pine producers will increasingly turn lo the treated and component markets in the future because their lumber is so well positioned for those end uses. Few species accept preservative treatment as well as southern pine; few species possess the high working stress values of southern pine. Hardly any species can niatch southern pine in both treatability and strength.
By shifting rhe focus of its markets away from housing, southern pine manufacturers will find less competition. That will leave a fierce dogfight in the declinins housine market for Canadian lumbei imports and competitors from other producing regions.
The U.S. economy may very well be dependent on how government takes the lead in improv- ing the efficiency and productivity of the nation. The coming year
could be the benchmark Period for soending reform. This could create a'windoi of short term gloom from which the light of a long term Picture of economic strength can emerge.
Early in 1987, I would expect retail sales to be rather flat as the economy will be sluggish and inflation sh6uld not be a factor. Consumers continue to get little good news and consumer confidence should not be greatly imProved'
I see little economic imProvement until we begin to solve our country's largest economic Problem. the continued exPansion of the budget deficit. The new tax reform will not have the desired impact on the nation's confidence wifhout a decrease in government soending. '
We witt not really make significant economic Progress until we bite the bullet and enact the spending cuts necessary to balance our budget. Over the Past 20 Years our eovernment has collected taxes at Ihe approximate average rate of l9olo of the GNP. In 1986, we will spend at a rate approximately 240lo oTttre GNP. ObviouslY, to maintain the current deficit, we must sPend at a rate equal to the income rate (taxes). To reduce current debt, spending must be brought to a rate lower than the collection rate to reduce the deficit.
With this action, I believe we will have a short term negative impact on the economy, but it appears Congress is readY to face facts and act on this issue. As our government faced major reform of the income structure of the country in 1986, they now must focus on establishing more efficient spendine habits.-ln
view of the preceding. onlY those of us who operate efficientlY will prosper through these trying times. Old rules do not aPPIY as demonstrated by companies like Price Club, who trulY established a new method of retailing. If we measure our own efficiencY ratios
against the Price Club, we dis_cover quictly that there are more efficient *ays of operating than the traditional lumber, hardware and home improvement companies utilize. It is a time to maximize efficien-
Flat retail sales. old rules will no long apPlY new concepts, distribution channels, electronic systems to offer more productive oPerations.
cies. Zero base budgeting, which was a well used Phrase over the last ten years, should PerhaPs be .r-e: placed by "zero based thinking." I believe new concepts. new systems. new procedures, different channels of distribution and enhanced electronic systems represent a good nucleus to evaluate as opportunities for a more efficient, more Productive operation.
Ceitainly we as retailers will face an unstable, if not weak, economY in 1987. We can look uPon it as a curse or face the realities of a coming age and find new retailing efficiences to prosPer.
By William T. Hausle Director, Market Planning Gold Bond Building Products
XPENDITURES for residential alterations and rePairs aDpear headed for another new r6iord in 1987. Dollars sPent for this purpose have increased every year for the last 20 years except in 1982. Last year they topped $80 billion and should reach at least $82 billion in l 986.
The outlook for 1987 is a 6% to 7% increasebringing the total market close to $88- bitlion. Some significant changes are taking Place in this market. While spending is up across the board, there has been greater emphasis on maintenance and repairs and somewhat less on additions and alterations.
Several studies have shown that repair and remodeling expenditures are concentrated in the first few vears of residency ln a home. Existing home sales have been edging uP foi the past two years from an annual rate of 2.7 million units to over 3.5 million units. This should provide a solid foundation for increased R&R expenditures as
new owners make their homes more livable.
Last year saw exPenditures on rental pioperties increase by 290/o. This ias- three times the 9Vo increase in spending for owneroccupied homes. All signs Point to this shift continuing for the next few years because of the growing surplus in aPartments'
New apartments are being built faster than the demand for them is srowing. And investors are rushing io complete units before the less favorable tax laws go into effect. Apartment vacancy rates hit an alltime high during 1986. Owners of older units will continue to sPend more money on maintenance, upgrading and imProvements to
lPlease turn to Page 37)
R&R expenditures close to $88 billion...greater emPhasis on maintenance and repairs. gypsum wallboard use expected to increase 10"/"
s DEFINED by webster's A Dictionary, efficiency is the qnafity or degree of being efficient, i.e., efficient operation.
S WE come to the conclusion of 1986, I predict that many of us will look back upon this year as the "golden year." Building prod-
ucts executives seeking to repeat the success of 1986 will find that goal more and more elu- sive as the decade progresSCS.
Although we have all enjoyed one of the best years of the decade, there have been some disturbing events taking place. For example, when you add up the construction statistics, most executives are surprised to learn that the best construction year of the decade was not 1986 but 1985! Real construction spending for 1986 is actually off .340/ol Current overbuilding in certain sectors, a weaker economy, and fundamental changes in the tax code all will combine to accelerate the decline that has begun this year.
Certainly, the non-residential sector contains the greatest exposure to decline for 1987. With total non-residential constuction slipping l0%, the "red flag" is up as to the true nature of next year's non-residential climate. Put plainly and simply, the traditional three year construction expansion was stretched into four years due to favorable tax laws and a growing economy. The market and the economy can no longer absorb excess non-residential capacity and thus, this sector is poised for a decline next year.
The non-residential sector for 1987 will see significant declines over present levels. However, behind the "doom and gloom" lies opportunities for savvy manufacturers who can successfully target their markets. For example, in a year where office starts could decline to half their level of 1985, institutional building, dependent on demographic changes, will remain close to current levels. The continued increase in the applicability of accessibility codes, particularly in the institutional market, lays the groundwork for a growth segment. Construction of retail buildings, because they follow
lousjng srarts, will actually increase 5o/o for 1987 creating yet another market niche.
Because of structural changes in the market, all of us will become more de_pendent on the housing market. With the continued lag ol mortgage rates responding to recent declines in short-term rates, the stage has been set for further decreases in the mortgage rate next year. Thus, single-family housing will continue its three year growth strut.
Adding to rhis synergy is the continued single-family mix change away from starter homes towaid
Success will be elusive de. clining non-residential sec- tor...institutional building steady .5o/o increase in retail buifding .12o/o d-i-y growth.
move-up homes offering construc- tion products manufacturers a market with increased spending per home. Multi-family starts will be most affected by tax law changes and q1g expected to decline by 200/o in 1987.
The rehab market will also see fundamental changes next year. Removal of the Investment Tax Credit will have its primary effect on commercial renovation projects, pushing this sector down 25%. However, with the average age of a commercial building increasing to 23 years (versus 22years in l9B5), the replacement market will continue to accelerate.
One of the prime beneficiaries of the strong housing market is the do-it-yourself sector. With 800/o of d-i-y projecrs underraken wirhin two years of a house purchase and sales of existing homes approaching 3.7 million, the foundation has been laid for a continuation of the l2olo compound annual growlh rate in the d-i-y market.
Cqqpargd to the past "golden yeaf," 1987 will be a year offundamental structural change in the construction cycle. As the economy continues its slowdown, the con- struction industry will be challenged to respond to a different set of events.
I N tlZS, after the lasr Redwood I National Park expansion, several industry obs-ervers were sounding a death knell for the redwood lumber
industry. Contrary to predictions. the redwood industry has shown the same resilience and tenacity as the trees that constitute its resource. Majorredwood producers recently invested millions of dollars in new
sawmills, a certain indication of their confidence. Many mills use the most advanced computer-aided equip- ment. Most important, redwood production has increased steadily. This makes me feel obliged to com-
ment as Mark Twain did when he cabled the Associated Press from London saying: "The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated."
In 1986. the California Redwood Association conducted a survev of all redwood producers to help usinticipate the marketing needs of the industry. I'd like to share the results with you. They are interesting and, rn so.me respects, perhaps a little surpnstng.
In a given year, redwood accounts for only 2o/o to 30/o of U.S. softwood production which lies in the range of 39 billion board feet. The numbers may seem deceptive because redwood is highly visible in the marker place and in applications. Another figure, percentage of sales, provides a different perspective. While redwood accounts for 20lo to 30/o of production, it usually accounts for be-
tween 40lo and 60/o of sales, reflecting redwood's higher value and greater profit margin.
From a modest level of 760 million board feet in 1982, redwood production has increased gradually and is expected to exceed one billion board feet in 1988 where it will remain relatively steady for the remainder of this decade and into the next. The primary reason for this 4l% increasb is the coming of age of many young growth redwood forests. Many lands that have been harvested and reforested now hold timber of a marketable age. This is a trend that will continue into the next century.
Redwood lumber is divided into two major product categories. There are the clear. architectural grades, used for siding, interior paneling and millwork and there are the knottY, garden grades, used for decks and outdoor applications. Naturally, the
grade mix developed from young growth timber is different from old growth timber, but one of our survey's surprises is that while prod-
Redwood industry modernizing, increasing Production amount of marketable timberincreasing . . availabil' ity assured into next century. specialtY status to continue. uction increases, the grade mix will stay proportionate, with about 200/o architectural grades and 800/o garden grades.
These figures bear a few messages for lumber dealers. First of all, redwood will continue to be available in increasing quantity well into the next century. The grade mix for the next five to ten years will remain the same, which means redwood will keep its position as the most highly desired product for the active markets of siding, interior paneling and outdoor decks.
While it will continue to be readily available, redwood will never become a commodity. Redwood production will remain small compared to the total softwood Production of U.S. and Canada. More important, redwood's status as a specialty wood is due to aesthetic and physical properties which are unmatched by other woods. The bottom line is lumber retailers stocking redwood will continue to make a greater profit. from redwood than other competing species.
By Robert C. Vereen Executive Director Home Center Institute
I nSf YEAR, we talked about L the disastrous trend in this industry to engage in a price war, and the need to focus on improving
customer service through better employee training as an offset to an ever-widening and more destructive price war.
The pricing wars have continued, and the casualties have mounted. flechinger declared itself out of the warehouse business as this success- ful, always candid giant found warehouses discouraeed female traffic and did not prod-uce acceptable rates of return unless one ran the only warehouse game in town.
Mr. How has been parceled off, largely to Builders Square. Homecraflters has been bought by Wickes. Zayre bought HomeClub and finds losses Iarger than expected and unacceptable. Pay'n Pak's earnings dropped sharply.
Ilow can one remain a profitable
olaver in a field so dominated bY briiing images? One of the needs is to develop a pricing strategy that identifies the price-sensitive items and allows you to create the right pricing image on those items while finding other products on which tiny margin gains can be achieved.
The whole concePt of Priceshopping by the consumer, initiated by home center efforts, makes large-margin gains on individual items or merchandise classes increasingly difficult to attain.
Home Center Institute has been seeking ways to develop their pricing strategies during this past year. and in 1987 is offering two new services.
Price-shopping comPetition is nothing new. It's been done for
Casualties mount in Price wars. strategy must be developed . . . largemargingains difficult to attain new developments in price checking.
years, but not as regularlY as. it should be. Now an in-store Price auditing system has been developed that will check the everyday shelf price of 1,200 significant items in a variety of storesmass merchandisers, home centers, hardware stores, etc.in keY markets around the country. Subscribers will get these Price checks in an actionable format as they are developed bY market once a year.
- What should be the "right" advertised price? No one can be low on every item everY daY and stay in business. Is there a comfort zone for a line or product? A new service checks print advertising monthly and issues bY-item information showing advertised Price, resular price, brand name. model nfmUer, and description. as well as who advertised the Product, where and when. Capable of sorting more than 10,000 advertised items monthly into 3l merchandise categories, this is Proving to be a useful management tool'
These are two responses to needs in this highlY comPetitive retail marketplace today.
1986 should provide some better results in U.S. exports.
repeat of 1986 business activity. Economists, trade group gurus and
CONOMIC projections for 1987 generally indicate a tea leaf readers are mildly optimlstlc ln a number of economic areas.
They foresee sluggish but continued improvement in the GNP and another "leg" on the Bull
Market in Wall Street. Perhaps there will be slightly higher interesr rates and inflation, but such upward pressures will be minimal. Slight improvement in U.S. international trade should be another plus ingre- dient. Such general optimism is tempered a bit by the likelihood that economic activity will remain regional in nature. By this we mean, good times on the eastern and western coasts and continued trouble in America's heartland.
For the forest products industry, we should also have a repeat of 1986. If we build 1.8 to 1.85 million housing units in 1986, we might expect a decline of about l0o/o in 1987. NAWLA projects a housing start year in 1987 of I .63 to I .65 million units. Tax reform and overbuilding in some areas may affect apartments and multifamily units but the trend towards more single family homes as a percentage of the whole should continue.
Our association sees a substantial increase in remodeling markets during 1987. And this was a great market for wood products this year!
Industrial wood markets have been good and, again, more of the same for 1987. Our wood pallet market is adversely affected by the decision of auto manufacturers and the Federal Government to discontinue the use of wood pallets. These decisions may be reversed, but if not, the remaining industrial market for lumber will be better during 1987.
It looks as if the overseas export of lumber will also improve slightly in 1987. The fall of the dollar in
In summary, d-emand levels for lumber, plywood and other wood products should be almost as great as in 1986.
Mild optimism... 1.63 to 1.65 million housing starts. substantial increase in remodeling markets. industrial wood markets good continued oversupply.
Conversely, it should that our 1987 projection demand. We also expect
be noted deals with a continu-
ation of oversupply. This means that both the domestic and foreign marketplace will be very competitive. There will be continued pressure on sales margins and continued problems in depressed regions of the U.S.
Projecting effecrs of the Tax Reform Act of 1986 and the controversy over Canadian sofnpood lumber imports on our lumber business is extremely diflicult. If history is any guide, these events will neither be as good nor as detrimental for our industry as some people expect.
Therefore, our message is the same as a year ago:
Good management, operating cost containment, and professionalism in marketing and sales will continue to be the answer to profitability and growth.
lQ rnucrURAL panel produc- p tion in the U.S., buoyed by rising demand, should reach at least 25 billion square feet, 3/8-inch
basis, by the end of this year a l0o/o increase over 1985 production and the fourth consecutive annual production record for the panel industry. In spite of an expected slighl
dip in housing starts, APA expects the strong production pace to be maintained in 1987.
The year ahead should be one of even more diversified penetration in nonhousing markets, particularly
over-the-counter sales through home centers nationwide. This bright forecast takes into account the likelihood of a reduction from 1.85 million housing starts this year to 1.75 million in 1987, due in parr to tax changes impacting multifamily construction and to anticipated upward pressure on interest rates in the second halfofnext vear.
In 1987, in excess of 25 billion square feet of structural panel production should be required, as new promotional gains are added to a marketplace which already has strong demand momentum. The current wait-and-see attitude of consumers as they attempt to understand the new tax laws introduces a note of caution. but APA is forecasting thar the public will adjust to the tax changes and
be characterized by many challeng-
ing opportunities. These oppgrtunities require an extraordinary effort to be successful, whether it be at the wholesale, manufacturing or retail level.
Contributing factors include our economywhich has become more complicated than ever before, along with the complexity of today's tough comPetition. Today, we have price wars, better educated consumers and a thriving do-it-yourself market that,
despite some maturity, will continue to expand because of more households participating in d-i-y projects.
This increased participation has led to consumers tackling bigger and more complicated projects. The result is a wiser, more knowledgeable consumer who demands quality products in a significant number of categories, along with competitive pricing.
This evolutionary demand for quality should help U.S. manufacturers whowith a concern for cost controlstend to have better quality products than comparable ones produced offshore. Medium to upper priced/quality products have proved to be most poPular in hardlines retail outlets, indicating that consumers do want a choice.
Hardlines retailers who have made a definite effort to offer a selection of products at various quality and price levels have reported consistent, profi table growth in the sale of hardware items for many years.
Expanding d-i-y market. more consumer demand for quality, competitive Pricing slow growth in number of stores. . . increased volume per store. . stores need bet' ter identity.
overcome reluctance to make new purchasing commitments.
Home additions and remodeling will compensate for the housing decline by adding an estimated 60lo to the over-the-counter distribution markets. Another 5oh increase in nonresidential can also be seen next year as industrY Promotion senerates new business in the comirercial roof deck sector and other areas.
1.75 million housing starts
.. .10o/o increase in PlYwood production remodeling will add 6% to over-the-counter distribution . . timber suPP|Y clouds bright future.
Overseas, too, the outlook is brighter. Markets have Pulled out of a long slump, and recoverY is evident in Europe and elsewhere. Offshore shipments were 800/o ahead of 1985 for the first eight months of 1986.
A maior cloud that could come
in the way of an even brighter future is in the area of timber suPply. In the Pacific Northwest, there appears to be more concern in certaih circles for the welfare of the Spotted Owl than for thousands of wood industry emploYees whose livelihoods are threatened by plans to over-protect the owl. In the south, harvests in some areas are just beginning to overtake net -annual growth. What's needed is renewed commitment to timber management on the 700/o of southern forest lands that are held by small private owners. Our industiy must not give uP the fight for capital gains relief on long-range forestry investments, desPite the setback it has received in the recently approved Tax Bill.
A sobering reminder is needed, though, that our immediate Problem is to do all in our power to assure there will continue to be an adequate raw material baseand at the same time to create markets in the short-term for the 5 billion square feet of unused caPacitY. We've got the ideas, we've got the programs and we've got the energy. A world of fresh opportunity awaits us.
Recent studies indicate the emphasis among consumers is definitely switching away from price alone and toward qualitY and added values. Added values, of course, include what. hardware/ home center stores are known for: a source of knowledgeable, helPful sales people willing to take the time to advise their customers on their intended projects. with the popularity and growth of the d-i-Y movement, this has become more important than ever.
The outlook for our industry for the next few Years indicates a slower growth in the number of stores but an increase in the average volume per store. This means hardware and home improvement dealers will have to increase their penetration into the d-i-y market segment. Their goals should include increasing the shopping frequency among exisit-ng d-iy households, along with efforts to increase the average transaction per sale.
Afocus toward betteruse ofsPace and inventory, rather than on managing new store unit growth, will be the key to successftrl retailing over the next five to l0 Years.
Successful dealers will keep Pace with developments in their marketplace. They will be able to offset competition by offering increased service and value and by forging a real identity for their particular stores in the community they serve.
O"""l.ifr5,"#i*?IH,i;
Wickes Cos. is acquiring Collins & Aikman Corp. (textiles and wallcoverings) for $1.6 billion and has made an offer of $ 1.7 bil. for Lear Siegler,Inc.(aerospace and automotive), but is having trouble lining up financing for the second acquisition due to the Boesky scandal.
Houseworksi home center operation is being sold by W. R. Grace to Bernard R. Kossar and a management investment group for about $10 million; Handy Dan Home Center and Handy City chains are still on the market
Moore's home centers has been divested from Evans Products Co. in a spinoffof their company and Grossman's Inc. .
Hechinger Co. t Greenville, S.C., store has had its grand opening; Fredericksburg, Va., Fayetteville, N.C., and Roanoke, Va., stores are under construction. . . Diamond Lumber has reopened a remodeled and remerchandised store in Lee's Summit, Tx....
Builders Square, Inc. 's right to use that name was upheld by a jury in a suit brought by Builders Choice in San Antonio. Tx. . Payless' Cashways, Iic. has closed its Furrow Building Materlals store in North Houston.
IV'arner Robins Supply Co., Warner Robins, Ga., has added a 10,000 sq. ft. truss plant behind its retail unit and is adding 12,500 sq. ft. to its window and door manufacturing plant; the company is observing its 40th year..
Lowe's has opened retrofitted stores in North Greensboro and North Wilkesboro, N.C., and Orlando, Fl., while closing a store in Moore, Ok.; with two recently opened stores in the Sarasota, Fl., area, the chain is negotiating to purchase a l6 acre site in Stuart, Fl., and has purchased land to expand the Salisbury, N.C., store.
Mountcastle Lumber Co.Newport News, Va., has closed its retail unit and sold the sawmills to third generation family members, Richard and David Mountcastle... The Paty Co., Piney Flats, Tn., is sponsoring the "This Old House" tv program for the fourth season.
Home Depot is considering sites for a third store in Jacksonville, Fl., and will anchor a shopping center in Palm Beach Gardens, FI.... Scotty's Hardware will open in the new Springs Plaza Shopping Center, Inverness,Fl....
84 Lumber, Salem, Va., plans a major remodeling next year Wickes Lumber has expanded and remodeled its Lexington, Ky., store the Murfreesboro. Tn., lMickes Lumberis celebrating its 20th anniversary.
Pelican Cos. is planning a new store in Pawleys Island, S.C., as well as remerchandising l6 stores in the N.C. and S.C. chain.
Morgan Technologies Ltd. has been formed by Morgan Products Ltd. and Dyonix Greentree Technologies, Inc. to offer a computerized estimating system Ibr building material retailers
Building Products Digest
. Wasco Products is building a new 40.000 sq. ft. plant for manufacturing skylights.
Porter Paint has completed a $ I million expansion at its Louisville, Ky., manufacturing facilities .. MM Systems Corp., Tucker, Ga., has acquired Perma-Clad, no price revealed Tilden Industries, an English cabinet manufacturer, has opened a marketing ofTice in Atlanta, Ga..
The Sranley Workswill sell four of its businesses to focus on products and services for d-i-y and professional building markets. . Owens-Corning Fiberglas will sell its Meridian. Ms.. plant. . .
Security Lawn & Garden Products Co., Ft. Valley, Ga., has been acquired by S.C. Johnson & Son, Inc., Racine, Wi.... U. S. Plywood has opened new sales offices in Mobile, Al., Nashville, Tn., Richmond. Va.. Miami, Orlando and Tallahassee. Fl. ..
River City Moulding has been formed in Memphis, Tn., by Jerry Rose, Wally & Robbie Fields; the Fields are still associated with Walter M. Fields Lumber Co., Memphis. .. Custom Wood Products Countertop Div., Roanoke, Va., has acquired Save Supply Inc.
Scotty's will fell or close its Winter Haven, Fl., truss and millwork facility by rhe end of the year Robinson Lumber Co., New Orleans, La., is moving its headquarters to Tchoupi- toulasSt....
Housing srarrs for Oct. (latest figs.) dropped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of I,648,000 unlts . . . singles starts edged up 0.50/o: multis slid l.8o/o permits dropped 2.90/o .. . starts in the south were up l.3o/o economists predict the multi housing decline will continue because of overbuildine and elimination of tax advantaies
Wf I rt' " l:: t'n"rT'l,',f ''ot regarded as a banner year for most retail lumber and building material
dealers. Reliable indicators at this time point to the likelihood that 1987 will be equally as good. However, in the oil producing and agricultural regions of the country, as well as a few of the
heavy industrial areas, the general economy is still down, thus Putting a damper on housing and related economic activities. But all together, 1987 holds promise for a brighter future for many dealers in these slow-growth areas as well.
Although we are oPtimistic about 1987, many complex issues are yet to be reckoned with that could substantially influence the final outcome. For examPle, the full impact of the new tax bill on our industry has not been deter-
mined. If we are to enjoy continued erowth. interest rates must remain it or below today's levels. Inflation will have to remain at a moderate rate. A major undertaking of the 100th Congress will be addressing the potential problems of the huge federal deficits with no adverse impact on economic expansion.
All of these external factors will nlav an important role in our indusiryts perfoimance in 19871 some of the effects could be negative' However, because dealers have recently undergone tough economic times, many have emerged better equipped to oPerate their businesses successfullY. Lumber dealers throughout the countrY have had to become superior managers for inventorY control, employee relations, and investments in equipment and warehouse space; they have learned new skills that help bring about an imProved return on investment.
Building material dealers fortunate enough to have exPerienced a high level of growth in the last two or three vears should not become
complacent with their local market posiiion. There will alwaYs be bxtremely strong forces vying for the consumers' dollars. The major competition may not be the lumber dealer or home center down the street; more than likelY it will be the automobile or larger appliance dealers. These competitors for the consumers' disposable income do an excellent job of marketing their products; they frequentlY are able to convince the home owner, or potential home owner, that a snazzy new automobile or hightech appliance will enhance their life style more than a new home or a newly remodeled kitchen or bathroom. Lumber dealers must learn to deal with these soPhisticated marketing thrusts.
lmpact of tax bill on industrY undetermined . higher levels of efficiency needed to improve margins and Profits... lumber dealers must learn to deal with soPhisticated marketing thrusts.
If we effectivelY coPe with the various forces that shape our industrv. we can compete successfully' If w"e do this, 1987 should be a sound economic year.
By Gary D. Schlaeger Senior Assistant Vice President, Forest Products Burlington Northern Railroad
the forest products industry in the United States and Canada.
A significant oortion of the iailroad's total freight volume comes from the forest products industry. Factors affecting the forest products industry are imPortant to BN.
In 1986, housing starts in the United States will be about 1.8 million units. Housing starts are
expected to decline about 5olo in 1987, to about 1.7 million units. Lumber consumption for total residential usage will probably decline about 2olo from 1986 levels.
While the residential rePair and remodeling segment of the industry
Canadian softwood lumber duty may increase demand from Pacific Northwest mills ... probable transportation price increase. . spot shortages of lumber hauling equiPment.. . prices will hold firm or even increase.
has experienced tremendous growth over the past few Years, it will probably soften by about 1.50/o in 1987.
The overall building industrY will decline slightly next year, also as a result of the non-residential glut. With an average office vacancy rate of about I 6o/n in large downtown areas, and up to 230/o in suburban areas, this particular segment needs a shot in the arm.
Finally, the new tax bill Passed by Congress contains Provisions making investments less attractive. The signs all seem to point to overall volume in the forest Products industry declining in 1987, but we
(Please turn to page 38)
Kitchen/Brth Industry ShowDec. 14-16, sponsored by National Kitchen & Bath Association, Convention Center, Anaheim, Ca.
Building Material Merchants Associetion of Georgie & AlabameDec. 14-16, basic training seminar; Dec. lZ, board of directors meeting. Austell, Ga.
Herdware Wholeselers, Inc.Jen. 9-10, winter building products marker, Wyndham Hotel. Orlando. Fl.
Menufactured Housing InstituteJen. l3-lt, national housing show. Executive West Hotel, Louisville, Ky.
National Associrtion of Home BuildersJen. lGl9, annual convention, Dallas Convention Center. Daltas. Tx.
Expo '87Jrn. 16-20, New Orleans Hilton Riverside Hotel, New Orleans Convention Center, New Orleans, La.
Building Materiel Merchents Associrtion of Georgir & AlebamrJrn. 30-31, buying show. Georgia lniernational Trade Center, College Park, Ga.
Lumbermen's Association of TexasFeb. 5-7. board & committee meetings, Hyatt Regency. Austin, Tx.
Louisiana Building Meterial Dealers AssocietionFeb. 5-t, annual convention, Lafayette, La.
Nrtional Wood Window & Door AssocietionFeb. 7-ll, annual meeting, Inter-Continental Hotel, Maui. Hi.
Internstional Furniture & Woodworking Industry Exhibition - Feb. 7-16, Accra, Ghana.
At AWPIT's labor:rtor-r', :rll tests and evalu:rtions are perfonned bv highl,v quaiified personnel.
Mid-America Lumbermens AssociationFeb. l2-13, convention. Bartle Hall, Kansas Citv. Mo.
Caroline Lumber & Building Mater-iel Derlers AssociationFeb. 12-14, buying show, Civic Center. Charlorte, N.C.
Amarillo Hardware Co.Feb. 14-15, spring market. Amarillo Civic Center. Amarillo. Tx.
Moore-Handley HardwareFeb. 14-15, spring/summer dealer buying show, Birmingham/Jefferson Civic Center Exhibition Hall, Birmingham, Al.
National Lumber and Building Meteriel Deelers AssociationFeb. lE-20, oflicers' meeting, Broadwater Beach Hotel, Biloxi, Ms.
Appalachian Hardwood ManufecturersFeb. 19-20, annual meeting, Mills House Hotel, Charleston. S.C.
Mississippi Buitding Materiel Deelers Associetion_Fet. 19-21, annual convention & trade show. Royal D'lberville Hotet, Biloxi, Ms.
National Association of the Remodeling IndustryFeb. 26-2E, annual convention/exposition, Washington, D.C. Convention Center, Washington, D.C.
International Hardwood Products AssociationMarch 3-7, annual convention & World of Wood, Loews Ventana Canyon Resort, Tucson, Az.
1
The continuation of reasonable (compared to other recent times)
mortgage interest rates, minimal escalations in the cost of building materials, the fairly neutral impact of the federal tax law on single family housing, and a continuation of very little
negative media input into the thought processes of prosPective new home builders and buYers should at least give us an opportunity for another decent year.
Building material distributors in general are beginning to understand
and cope with the changes that have taken place in their marketplace. New entrants offer opportunities as well as threats. Distributors are finding that they are more and more
Building material distributors can expect another decent year. . biggest challenge to remain strong and profitable. education a maior concern and a priority.
included as an integral part of the national marketing of certain product lines and are serving customers
yours
Keep your inventory and profit under control. We ship nationwide bY RAIL, TRUCK or PIG VAN... mixed to your specifications.
that were recently perceived to be threats. As time goes on, theY will even figure out how to make money on lower margins apparently available in this type of business.
Our biggest challenge is not going to be how to remain an imPortant player in the marketing of building materials, but rather how to remain strong and profitable as an important player.
The National Building Materials Distributors Association, in the development of its strategic Plan, emphasized for its membership that education is the key word. The education of suppliers, customers and our own personnel is a major concern and will be a top priority of our association in the years to come. Our members must become more positively aware of their value in the marketing channel and be able to bring their suppliers and customers to this same awareness.
At the same time, we must educate ourselves in the area of productivity of people and assets. This is our key to the financial strength that we must maintain if we are to continue to reliably serve our markets, to invest in new product lines and new customers in the years to come.
We look forward to 1987 as a year of continuing transition and a settling in the marketplace.
Bill Fishman & Affiliates
11650 lberia Place San Olelo, Ca..'gilZg when you grab my arm" uork a lor bener rhan 'You had bener stop grabbing my arm."
This is the conclusion of a no pan discussion of communication skills by' columnist Bill Fishman. See the last issue for the first segment-ed.
o Be sensitive to "MEAPLE"
Because meanings are in people, nu in words. you must carefully encode and decode your message when sending and receiving. Orient yourself to your receiver and talk their language.
o Avoid threats and accusations
Use ''l' ' statements rather than ' 'YOU." Phrases such as "l really am uncomfortable
o Remember that criticism doesn't have to hun.
Shaming the receiver. assigning blame and emphasizing the negati\e are definite paths to disaster. Before criticizine. make sure of what you want to say and how it should be said. Check your tone of voice and target the behavior you want changed. being as specific as possible. Be sure the behavior you want changed can be changed and if it can'r. then stop.
o Avoid information overload
When making presenations or giving insrructions. be careful not to present an overwhelming amount of information in a short period of time. Use handouts. flip chars and overheads and allorv for audience interaction and particioation.
r Be here now
Put yourself into the moment and cast aside thoughts ofthat call you have to make. or the memo )ou have to write later on. Lack of focus. roving eyes or distant look make people feel as ifyou aren't listening and don't care.
. Be an active rather than a passire listener
Don't second guess u hat sorneorc is s4 ing or pre-judge the content of his message. Ask queslions to clari$ uhat is beirE said and H back r,r'hat 1'ou hear to keep the florr going. i.e.. 'Are vou sal ing. ." "lt sounds like. ." "ln other r.rords. ." etc. Remember. uhen in doubt. check it out.
o Obsene
When vou are meeting someone for the first time. take a good look at their environment. Famill photos. painrings. rrophies. auards. diplomas etc. are a clue to personal background and a staning poinl for conversation and rapport building.
r Aroid closed+nded quesions w.hen attempting to prompt dialogue
Questions that can be answercd *'ith a simple )es or no ans$er automaticallv put an end to thc conversation. It is especialll imporrant to
/Continued on next page)
We back our products with factory-trained personnel and a strong product warranty. lf you have a special application or problem, call our chemists on our toll-free number. We'll help however we can.
We work hard to protect our product's reputation so you don't have to worry about yours.
Gray Seal, the Paint Pros Paint. Painting's lust too much work to use anything else.
keep the flow going while problem solving, so be sure to ask questions that will elicit response.
o Adopt an air of confidence
Stand or sit up tall. Be drrect in your commenl"s and when you do not know the answcr, bc honest. In a self-assured tone of voice, simply say that you don't know but you will find out. Then lrnd out and follow-up.
o Be fiicndly and positive
Peoplc respond well to the positive. Negative actions and vocal cues are a sure way to turn your listener off Whenever possible, call people by their first name. This will make them fcel as if you are truly interested in them. This is especially truc for the secretary who screens her bosscs calls. And. don't forget to smile, cven when you're on the phonel smiles can be heard.
. Pay attention to your outward imagc
You nerer have a second chancc to make a first impression. When you wear uncomfbrtable clothes, you come across as being uptight. so wearing a too-tight suit to that big sales meeting could be a big mistake. When you look good and feel good, it comes across to others and you prcsent a positive image.
People attempt interpersonal communication more than any other activity in their daily lives. some more effectively than others. Effective, peniuasive communicators are made (not born), as a result ofdedicated effort and practice. But. the benefit ofsuch effort will be rcadily apparent to the business person who uses his/her sophisticated communication skills to thcir utmost. lt is never too late to lmprove.
I
"l'm aware you don't get what you're worth, Jones-and you've been getting away wilh it for a long time."
storage room the other da,v". As it turned out, one of the more dusty ones happened to be a book we received a few years ago containing all of the articles written by Jessie Gilstrap of Bentonville. Ar.
For over three decades Jessie's "Lumber Lou" articles appeared as a regular monthly feature in MLA's Retail Lumberman magazine.
In skipping through the copy, I ran across the Christmas message she wrote ,30 t'ears ago this month and because what she said is still true todal'. we could think of no better wav to sat' Merr.v" Christmas to all our members and friends than to reprint it for 1ou one more time.
I'm sitting on an old nail keg.
Thanksgiving's come and gone
.\nd soon it '*ill be Christmas as The days speed swiftll on.
\4e have so much for *hich ue should (iive grateful thanks this !ear.
ln spite of communistic threats
To ideals *e hold dear.
\\'e're thankful for this land of ours.
l:or our dear t .S..-\..
lior all the things rre have and are.
\\'e're thankful everl' da1.
Iror all that C hristmas means to usThe spirit of good nill.
And that the Star of Bethlehem Remains to guide us still.
.\lthough the "Times s€em out of joint." .-\nd cries multipll.
\f,'e can keep Christmas in our hearls. .-\nd la*lessness defr.
\la1 *e tet realize our dream
Of "Peace o'er all the earth."
r* hich *as proclaimed bl angel choirs
I pon the Christ Child's birth.
Instead of "\lerrl Christmas." l'-riends. \tl greeting mosl sincere. ls "Peace be unto each o[ y-ou. $'ith blessinrgs and good cheer."
Lumberinglv.
JESSTE GILSTRAPMore than 150 retailers. installers. manufacturers. distributors and others related to the hard*'ood flooring industry, hare joined the neu'I1'organized National Wood Flooring Association.
Charter members u'ill be accepted through April 28. 1987. according to Virgil Hendricks. Locku'ood Flooring. uho is president. An oak plank floorin-g plaque is being presented to each neu member.
preident
E OR SOME reason which I even remember. I found sifting through a pile of books
Ican't myself in our
co.,",i,,g Alabama, Frorida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, the Carolinas, Tennessee and Virginia.
Mississippi Building Material Dealers Association will hold its 6lst annual convention and building products trade show, Feb. l9-21 at the Royal D'lberville Hotel, Biloxi.
Since the National Lumber and Building Material Dealers Association will be holding its 1987 officer's meeting at the Broadwater Beach Hotel in Biloxi at the same time, they are being invited to attend the president's reception and dinner on Feb. l9 and the all industry luncheon on Feb. 20.
Gerald A. Jewett Jr., NLBMDA president, and Harlan Hummel, NLBMDA executive vice president, Washington D.C., will be keynote speakers at the all industry luncheon. Jewett is vice chairman and ceo of Gilcrest-Jewett Lumber Co., Des Moines, la.
A sellout of booths for the building products trade show is expected, according to the MBMDA office in Jackson.
Saturday morning's business session will be a tax investment seminar to answer questions concerning the new tax laws and how they affect business and investments. This seminar will be conducted by Anthony Gregorio, Pete, Warwick & Mitchell & Co., and Bob Welch, A.G. Edwards & Sons, Inc.
Saturday afternoon will be set aside for suite visitation.
The President's Reception and Banquet will be held Saturday night. Sunday morning brunch will precede delegates leaving for home.
Tennessee Building Material Assocation is offering its members two correspondence courses.
One, an architectural drafting course, is designed to teach house plans drawing. lt also doubles as a residential blueprint reading course.
The other is an estimating course for those who want to learn to take off building materials. Both courses have l0 lessons.
Building Material Merchants' Association of Georgia and Alabama will hold its annual buying show Jan. 30-31 at the Georgia International Trade Center in College Park.
More than 300 firms will be exhibiting in the 40,000 sq. ft. exhibition hall, occupying 187 booths.
A membership meeting which will include the election of new officers is scheduled for the morning of Jan. 31. A banquet will be held that night. The Holiday Inn Crown Plaza is the official convention hotel.
Louisiana Building Mrterial Dealers Association has its annual convention planned for Feb. 5-8 at the Hilton Hotel in Lafayette.
Delegates will be welcomed on Thursday night with a cocktail party. Friday will begin business sessions with seminars on the lien law and bankruptcy. This will be a continuation of an earlier seminar held in Baton Rouge. On Friday night a Crawfish Boil & Dance, plus all the trimmings with music provided by Rocky Dopsie and the Cajun Twisters is scheduled.
fi eennflNG dara was collecred V from I 85 dealers and chain outlet managers in a recent Northwestern Lumbermen's Association survey. Hardly enough replies for statistical validity, but certainly indicative of the opinions and thoughts of your functioning kindreds. Here's a bit about them and what they forecast for 1987.
Annual sales volume of I l9 of the dealers was less than a million dollars annually. An additional 4l operators did more than this, but less than three million. The other 25 reported from three to over 50 million.
Financial planning received no comment from eight companies. Seventy four reportedly did financial planning each year, but 104 made no financial plan. For 1987 single yards anticipating increases averaged them at 8.100/0.
Chain or branch store managers expected 50/o increases on an average. Single operators expecting losses averaged them at | 1.680/o and the multi-units al 12.450/o.
Respondents were asked to evaluate growth potential for the next three years from a low of 0 to a high of 7. Store size expansion, yard remodeling and additional locations were heavily weighted toward the lowest potential in terms of contributing to future growth. Increased advertising, additional services, changing market focus, increased market focus and changing market were expected to contribute to growth. Fifty thought new and additional services were important to growth. Changing market focus got a combined 5l votes. There were 47 supporters of increased market focus and 45 believe changing market would contribute to potential growth during the balance of the 1980s.
A second area of the survey asked each respondent to list the first and sec-
ond most important obstacles to development of an acceptable ROI in their company. Competition and economy led the list of obstacles with general generated expense and collection problems next. Lack of capital and unprofitable lines were virtually tied for third place.
A third area asked for the origin of grealesl competition during the next three years. The three options were mass merchandisers, marketing by existing competition and new competitors. Mass merchandisers and marketing by existing competitors were leaders. New competition trailed at the bottom.
This information serves as a look into what others in the business, who may well have problems and opportunities exactly like yours, are thinking- For years the idea has been that the basic difference between the successful retailers and also-rans is in three areas: the ability to control expense. to implement cost effective change and to sustain offering of growth opportunity. Being reminded of these may help as you wrestle with the future.
lf you would like our free Thrival (contraction of thrive and survival) list of the top 20 areas doing the most profit damage during 1986, send us a stamped, self-addressed envelope.
Doug Jones has joined MM SYstems Corp., Tucker, Ga., as sYstems sales mgr.
Ron Didier, Wood Protection Co., Houston, Tx., has returned from a trip to Georgia.
Lawrence B. Trammel, v.P., Southwest region distribution div., Georgia-Pacific Corp., Atlanta, Ga., will retire at the end of the year after 35 years in the industry. J. WaYne Amy, mgr. of the GP distribution center in New Orleans, La., will succeed him.
D. Eugene Fortson has been named pres. and c.e.o. for Sterling 12 Star Paint products, Little Rock, Ar.
J. G. LaCroix has been appointed v.p. and gen. mgr. of Morgan Distribution, Harrisburg, Pa., according to George T. BroPhY, Morgan Products Ltd. pres. and c.e.o'
Sherry Smith and Zane McDonald have joined the sales staffof Conner Distributors, Fort Worth' Tx.
Koss Kinser, Kintec Wood Truss Manufacturing, Pewee ValleY' KY.' has been elected Pres' of Wood Truss Council of America. Gifford Shaw, Shaw Components, Sumter, S.C., is now a director; new board members include John Herring' A-l Roof Trusses. Inc., West Palm Beach, Fl., and GarY Luttrell' Glaize & Brothers, Winchester, Va.
Charles L. Hearn is now a sales rep in Houston. Tx., and So. La. for Rexnord Chemical Products.
David Barrett is now mgr. of 84 Lumber Co., Richmond, Va., BrYan Lee is mgr. in Middlesboro, KY.
Charles Parks is the new mgr. of Scotty's, Fort Walton Beach, Fl. Michael Dickinson is mgr. in Bradenton. Fl., and JimmY McKinneY in Orlando, Fl. Bill Drosdick has been transferred to Dade City' Fl.' as asst. mgr.
Thomas J. Carey has been Promoted to director of sales services at Plumb Shop, Lancaster, Tx., according to Charles M. Wellnitz, v.p. of sales.
R. Jett Anderson has been named director of sales for Rubbermaid Specialty Products Inc., Statesville, N.C., according to Williarn A. Foley, v.p. and gen. mgr. Ed Donaldson, Rubbermaid v.P., is taking early retirement.
Bert Solt is the new sales mgr. and head of purchasing for Paulsel Lumber Co., Fort Worth, Tx. Earl Youker is new to sales.
Charles A. Hamilton is the new v.p. of manufacturing at WaYne-Dalton Corp., overseeing Tx., Ga. and Fl., according to Gary N. Underhill, pres.
Ned Guilbeau, gen. mgr., LafaYette Wood-Works, Inc., Lafayette, La., has been named 1987-1988 Pres. of the National Sash & Door Jobbers Association.
Dick Nelson has been appointed v.p./ operations mgr. of U.S. PlYwood Corp.'s Catawba, S.C., hardboard facility.
William C. Schwidder is now v.p. and gen. mgr. of distribution services for GTE Electrical Products, Danvers, Ma., succeeding Edward H. Churchill, who has retired.
Mark T. Johnson has been named marketing product mgr. for the Magic-Door Div. of The StanleY Works.
R.J. "Bob" Graubman has been appointed consumer products sales mgr. of Pemko, Memphis, Tn. Eddie Chambers, Pres. of Building Material Merchant's Association of Ga. and Al. and Chambers Lumber Co., Gainesville, Ga., and Erv Goodroe, association v.p., are representing BMMA on the National Lumber & Building Material Dealers Association board of directors.
Bob Herndon is the gen. mgr. of Walker Williams Lumber Co.'s new Falkville, Al., facility.
Michael O'Donnell has been named Al. and Ms. sales rep for Dataline.
James Edward Caldwell, Wickes Lumber Co., Lexington, Ky., married Elisabeth Salter Peck on Aug. 29,1986.
Dave Matthews has been promoted to senior v.p./director of purchases and gen. merchandise mgr. at HillBehan Lumber Co., St. Louis, Mo. Gregory Zenas Boling, Lowe's, Salisbury, N.C., married Lisa Michele Chandler on Oct. 11, 1986.
Howard E. Otto is now national sales mgr. of Quality Cabinets, div. of Texaswood Industries, Duncanville (Dallas). Tx.
Chris O'Flynn is the new mgr. of 84 Lumber Co., Baton Rouge, La. Bob Brown will head the Versailles, Ky., store; Jim Weber is co-mgr. in Midland-Odessa, Tx., and Jack Cun' ningham, co-mgr. in Troutville, Va.
Jim Meyer will manage the new Scotty's on So. Tamiami Trail in Sarasota, Fl. Other new Fl. mgrs. include Bill Gutek, Jacksonville Mandarint Jim Morris, Sebring; Randy Smith, West Palm Beach' and Gary Spahr, Apalachee Parkway, Tallahassee. New asst. mgrs. are Srndra Blanton, Lakeland, U.S. 98 North; Scott Blocker, Sebring; Bobby Colvin, Okeechobee; Mike Fuller, U.S. Hwy. 1 South, Vero Beach; Mary Beth Hall, Stuart; Scott Hinson, Gainesville; Jim Holmes. Cocoa; Tim Horan' Tampa Town & CountrY; John Lothridge, Big Pine KeY; Glenn Mimbs, No. Monroe St., Tallahas' seet Leo Morrell, Tamiami Trail, Sarasota; Ron Picarillo, Homestead; Gary Powell, Sanford; Jerry Simmons, U.S. 98 North, Lakeland; Jack Turnbull, Bee Ridge Rd., Sarasota; Loren Van Roekel, St. Petersburg factory outlet warehouse, and Dave Weber, Titusville' Lewis Voorhees is new to hardwood lumber products sales at Stone Container Corp., forest products div.' Orangeburg, S.C., according to Charlie Lucas, sales mgr.
Bob Jones and Louis Michiels are now co-mgrs. of the Leader Lumber oflice in Lake Charles, La.
Danny Carpenter, Lowe's, Tallahassee' Fl., mariied KerrY Armstrong Oct' 25,1986.
Larry Walker has been named sales promotion mgr. of ScottY's, Winter ilaven. Fl.. according to Dan Maffet, v.p. and general sales mgr' Dave Bryant is now overseeing the co.'s commercial sales force; Ron Kirin is assistant gen. sales mgr'; Bob Stanton, v.P. and director of purchasing, hardlines, and- Tim kessler, v.P. and director of Purchasing, building Products.
Richard K. Fellows has been named gen. mgr. of the Summitville Tiles warehouse/showroom in TamPa, Fl' Elizabeth Kendall has retired from Barton's Lumber Co., Paragould' Ar., after 33 years with the firm.
Bryan Dowd is mgr. of the new Lowe's on Two Notch Rd. in Columbia' S'C' Gary Gene Womack, Lowe's North Wilkesboro, N.C., married Jane Kennedy Bowden Oct. 12, l9{6' Tim Burr, Mungus'Fungus Forest Products, Climax, Nv., and his brother Lum have adoPted an orphan, whom they have named Tim "Buck" II, according to company owners Hugh Mungus and Freddy Fungus.
A non-chemical drain unclogger from G.T. Water Products uses regular household water to flush sinks, slirowers and main drains clear of debris.
A big 36 " x 44 " coloring tablecloth is new from Share'N'Care.
leakage. A flexible molecular bond is formed on surfaces including wood. metal, composites, painted surfaies, concrete, plastics, fabrics and electrical connections.
The anti-slip rubber coating prevents and arrests attack I acids, alcohol. caustics, chlorine, brine, sea water. rain water and sunlight.
Liquid containers of 4 oz. with brush in cap, aerosol cans of 6 and 12.5 oz.. and larger quart, gallon and 5 gallon cans are offered. There are seven colors plus special colors.
Drain King works on an automatic. pulsating action that forces water through the surge valve to the blockage. The aition continues until accumulated waste is released and flushed through the drain.
Special wipe off. non-toxic crayons are included along with a long lasting sponge eraser. Designs include a variety of iuvenile themes.
A new family of Tech Shield rubber transparent coatings for protecting objects against deterioration has been introduced in new colors, sizes and a higher viscosity formulation by Brooks Tech.
A monitor that records the temperarure of a uioodburning sto/e from anywhere in the house is new-from Inventex Inc.
Knorving horv hot the flue is can permit raising or lowering the temperature to marntaln an even, economically burning fire to save wood, time and eneigy.
Guaranteed not to harm pipes, the tml made of durable rubber is reusable. Four sizes to fit different size pipes are available.
Also offered are accessories such as a drain adapter for sinks with crossbars. a frucet adapter. a kit that clears swimming pcol lines as well as regular drains. and an adapter kit with hose.
A new acrylic formula has been introduced in Muralo's LumberJacket solid color wood stain.
The stain is said to fearure good hiding characteristics and color retEntion, fas'i drying and easy cleanup. The water-based product is available in a wide range of natural colors.
_ Bright LED's show the approximate flue temperarure and tell whether the fire is gening hotter or cooler. An ear piercing alarm sounds when it is gening t<b hot to avoid a chimney fire or ritten it is gening too cool to keep the fire from going out.
Applied to surfaces as a primer or a finished coat by spray, brush, roller or dipping, the product protects against water damage, rust and corrosion. ozone. ultraviolet radiation and electrical current
The device also has the capacity to drive a digial telephone dialer, 'Jvhich-can contact a central alarm station to send help in the event ofan alarm when no one is home.
For more information on New Producb wite Building hoduct. Dgest, 450O Campus Dr., Suite 2180, Newport Beach, Ca.926f/J.
Please mention issue date and page number so we can process your request faster! Many thanks!
A new palm size mini personal keY chain alarm from Moen's Down East Gifu emis an ear-piercing, high frequency 90 dbs alarm with a pull of a pin.
Reportedly as loud as a police siren when close up, the noise will scare people away as well as attract attention. The alarm comes in a small protective poly bag which is also a convenient holder.
The2t/z oz. device, measuring 2" x3" x 3'l operates on two size N alkaline batteries which can operate the alarm for up to 30 minutes continuously or used for occasional short periods up to 500 times.
A deadbolt lock with a built-in alarm system is new from Simpson Hardware Group.
Requiring no wiring during installation, Loudlock is like any other surfacemounted deadbolt. It is powered by a single 9-volt battery.
The alarm is set by turning the key to lock the deadbolt from the outside or by turning the hand-turn knob when locking the deadbolt inside the home. The alarm is triggered S any jolt which moves the bolt.
Design features to prevent false alarms and an automatic setting and resetting capacity are other key components.
A unique triple action cleansing formula for sheepskin, upholstery and carpeting is new from Meguiar's, Inc. Its deep foaming action blend penetrates the fabric, loosening and lifting out dirt to remove spots and restore beauty. The treatment can be used on all sheepskin, natural and synthetic, but is not recommended for silk or velvet.
A hand cleaner that combines abrasive pumice with soft lanolin for dissolving grease, dirt, tar, gasket cement, paint, varnish, putty, printer's ink, adhesives and many other substances without chapping or cracking the hands is new from Quaker State Oil Refining Corp.
A bar sink with matching shallow drainboard is new from Franke, Inc.
The deep, round bowl is a compact 18-l/8'in diameter. The drainboard is l-3116'deep and is ideal for rinsing and draining glassware.
Models are available in stainless steel or in four enamel colors. Sinks can be custom-fitted with optional drain-tray, teak cutting board, drain basket/plate rack, and a coordinating faucet.
Holders to stabilize materials such as doors, windows or plywood in an upright steady position so they may be planed, trimmed or hinged are new from B.T.S. Enterprises.
Made of /r" brushed aluminum for strength and lightness, they have adjustable end pieces with a polyvinyl coating for protection of the materials. The base is covered with two plastic runners to protect the floor surface.
The holder can also be converted into a work bench or shelving.
Gutter guards which eliminate debris which normally accumulates in building sutters are new from Leslie-Locke.
The cleaner's active solvent replaces offensive odors with a clean. fresh scent. The balanced formulation contains no chlorinated solvents, alkali or ammonia.
A safety device to secure and stabilize portable ladders is new from Ladder Devices, Inc. Ladder Grabber attaches to a ladder and then slides onto nails on a roof.
- With smooth-edged design and aluminum construction, the 5 " and 6 " wide, stainless steel hinged guards provide easy clip-on installation. They are designed to resist ice. snow. rust and corrosion.
They come in 3 ft. lengths and conform to box-style and half-round gutters.
Used with or without water, it is available in a 15 oz. can and a 5 lb. waste-free dispenser container.
A f'ree-flowing. sel t'-level ing underlayrtrent fbr rapid leveling of tloors has been introduced by Laticrete International.
ing systcrn havc been added to the line of sunroonls from Evergreen Systenrs USA.lnc.
With standard operable casement windows with screens, the rooms will also accommodate a door or doors in the front.
The systems range from small kitchen bump-outs to expansive enclosures.
The glazing system is finished in bronze or white.
A high quality asphalt roofing felr is now arailable from The Weverhaeuser Co.
Only one hand is needed to achieve rapid. thorough mixing with the new lightweight. multi-purpose mixer from Bishop-Klein Industries.
Designed for use over clean, sound concrete. plywood. masonry. ceramic tile,terrazzo or steel decking, it is said to be easy to use, economical, water resistant, non-gypsum based, can be featheredged, does not crack or shrink, requires no troweling, and sets in three hours.
Uses include remodeling projects, repairing weather damaged and rough concrete slabs, and leveling concrete floors covered with adhesive residues.
Vertical front rooms featuring western red cedar beams and an aluminum slaz-
The standardized felt, available in three square, four square and two square measurements, carries the company's bright new packaging, featuring an orange and red growth ring pattern.
Utilizing a heavy duty polyethelene drum mounted on a steel fi.ame. ttr mixer weighs 25 lbs. and has a mixing capacity of 160 lbs. It incorporates 16 molded-in paddles for fast mixing of concrete. liquids. chemicals, fertilizen. soils. erc.
The non-toxic drum allows complete pouring of mixed contents. washes clean after use, and deaches from the frame in seconds for easy transport.
The Quick-Jack Telephone Extension Kit from GC Electronics is said to contain everything needed to add up to two extension phones quickly and safely.
The kit includes 30 ft. of self-adhesive telephone wire cord line, two snap-on self-adhesive quick-jacks, two selfadhesive wire guides and a modular "T" adaptor.
Packaged in a four color, clam-shell blister display card, the product is for use with any modular telephone.
A lightweight tape cutter made of durable plastic is new from Tomac, Inc.
Plywood or wood fiber-backed prehung wallpaper panels are now available in 16 different patterns including stripes, stencil designs, scenics, petite florals and textured looks from Georsia-Pacific Corp.
Thumthing
A curved corner door has been introduced by Excel on its Tempo kitchen. The space-saving inside curve ofthe corner wall adds to the look ofEuropean custom styling. and is available with the rest of the line in gray, white or almond. Doors of easy-care melamine laminate, color coordinated vertical wire pulls, hand-fitted components and doweled joints for extra strength, adjustable shelves and carousels are included.
Each 4' x 8' panel covers 32 sq. ft., and can be applied over surfaces that do not accept wallpaper.
A durable Acryglass topcoat can be cleaned with a damp cloth and mild detergent.
Only basic tools are required for installation.
(Continued from page I0)
can be used as a gauge, it tells us that the consumer will falter without additional incentives after four years of healthy gains. With employment growth slowing and debt ratios and personal bankruptcies rising, the consumer may have to rest early in the year. The declining attitudes reported in business surveys combined with tax reform changes suggest that production will not provide much help over the near term as well.
Two potential pluses for next year are a projected improvement in the trade deficit, which would add to real growth, and a continued low (although higher) levelof inflation. One important point to note about the trade deficit is that we need to measure any meaningful reduction in the trade deficit by
improvement in exports and the jobs that they create. Lower imports by themselves will not move the economy out of the doldrums.
So the outlook for 1987 is the same song we heard this yearslow but positive growth with low but slightly higher inflation. Look for real GNP to come in around 2olo on average following an expected 2l/20/o rise in 1986. Inflation should accelerate to 3-40/o on average after rising only 20lo this year. With the economy still growing at a below average level, the Federal Reserve may find the need to reduce interest rates further in the first half of the year. Economic activity is expectedto pick up laterin the year, and interest rates should' move moderately higher at that time. Housing starts will respond to any lowering in mortgage rates, but an improvement in residential construction activity will be limited. Commercial construction. due to
the glut of oflice space and the change in the tax law, should decline.
The wild cards for 1987 are the direction of oil prices and the impact of tax reform. Oil prices are expected to remain in the $15-18 per barrel range, but a break in either direction is equally likely.
Tax reform represents a change in the rules for both businesses and consumers. lt will be difficult to determine the exact effect of such sweeping changes. We can expect consumers to have more money on average and for businesses to have less on average, so consumer spending could receive a modest boost. However, borrowing will be more restrained and selective, so the consumer may not go out and buy a new car with the added income. As for businesses, they will find it easier to cancel existing projects than to begin new ones, so look for capital spending to be lackluster next year.
(Continued from page 30)
degree of balance is likely. Florida, Atlanta, and other areas that have basked in building booms are likely to show somewhat slower growth as construction activity continues to fade. At the same time. economic growth in the remainder of the region should accelerate.
U.S. manufacturing has not rebounded much yet, despite the precipitous decline in the foreign exchange value of the dollar. But in 1987, it is likely that manufacturing will finally turn the corner.
While construction activity will be influenced by the unpredictable course of interest rates, it is apparent that construction will be on the wane in 1987. Quite cyclical in nature, construction has seen the up side of the cycle over the past few years. By 1987, the worm will have turned.
In addition to a cyclical letdown, tax reform will restrain nonresidential and multi-family housing activity. Overall housing activity is likely to decline, but remain at a high level.
A more geographically balanced Southeast economy, growing at or above the national rate, will emerge in 1987. Although construction will be dragging, the long-awaited manufacturing rebound is expected to take up the slack.
"Housing had been one of the keys to growth. It's not going to be an engine of the economy as much anymore."
Maury Harris Chief Economist Paine Webber Inc.
"Housing is still a cyclical business . a gradual tapering off in housing starts in the coming months."
John Tuccillo Chief Economist National Council of Savings Institutions"1987 total starts will drop 160/o nationwide: single family starts down 8% and multifamily down 210l0. All regions should see a declinel. a 120/o drop in the Northeast, l7% drop in the Midwest.730/o in the South and 8o/o in the West."
Michael Sumichrast Senior Economic Advisor National Association of Home Builders"We are either going to make it in these markets (exports) or not at all."
George Weyerhaeuser President and Chief Executive Officer Weyerhaeuser Co."Throughout the business community, you get almost unanimous agreement that the most difficult problems facing us are the deficits of both budget and trade."
Robert Beck Chairman Prudential Insurance Co."When you try to put it all together, the message is that the economy isn't breaking out one way or the other from the slow growth, low-inflation environment that it's been locked into."
Robert Dederick Chief Economist Northern TrustLIIMBER: Robert Glatt, division mgr.r
JimHaas.
MILLWORK: Richard H. Mills (sacra"'ento)
G.W. "Tack" Baker (rl Pa"")
Rosie Lopez
Erclusive sales a$ents for MCG Picture Frames & Millwork Inc.. El Paso, Tx.
We are also pleased to be a West Coast area distributor for CF€*I steel products as u'ell.
BERGER & @MPANY aun la Conagra company) tAgfa" g'il3,1?h:"ISH"
ORGANIZATION WTTH OFFICESI IN: San Francisco, Ca. (headquarters); Chicago' Il.; Colfax, Wa.l Fargo, N.D.; Filer, Id.; Grand Cayman, British West Indiesr Santiago' Chile: London, England; Geneva, Switzerland; Nicosia, Cyprus: Buenos Aires, Argentina; Moose Jaw, Canada; and Taipei, Taiwan.
Co.
"The great question is whether management can and will seek out and exploit the new competitive opportunities here and abroad made possible by better aligned exchange rates."
Paul A. Yolcker Chairman Federal Reserve Board"The economy is likely to grow at an inflationadjusted annual rate of 3.5% to 40/o next year."
Beryl Sprinkel Chairman Council of Economic AdvisersFRAillil0 l|i{0ER GIASS lll exact scale miniatures were a popular item in displays at Eatibois Show. 12l Innovative prefab wall system has unlimited design possibilities. l3l Ball and socket on wood dowels for furniture and industrial applications. lfl "Special Connectors for round wood" the sign says in French. l5l l-beams made of wood and galvanized steel. 16l Computer and extensive software were plentiful. (71 Levis in France is a paint company, n0t a jeans manufacturer. l8l and (91 Names familiar to Americans.
ll0l Fingertointed wood moulding. ll ll Displays were both striking and ll2l exlensive; shown is the Canadian wood products house. ll 3l American-look kitchen cabinets are gaining favor over severe traditional styles. llll MacMillan Bloedel was out in force. llSl Communist Hungary is becoming active in sales of pre-lab homes and building materials; the sign says "Combined wood industries of Western Hungary." ll6l African hardwoods from Ghana. llTl A familiar name in fasteners
HERE'S nothing quite like it I in the United States. Or anywhere else, for that matter. Batibois 86, a large international exposition involving everything to do with wood from the forest to the home, was a remarkable gathering, not only for the wide range of new and established wood products and systems exhibited, but as a place for related meetings, symposia, conferences, industry tours and the like.
Huge exposition of wood products is also a forum for related meetings, seminars and plant tours. . . new and innovative European products and systems displayed... more exhibitors this year for the biennial show.
Backed by the French government, which coordinates the participation of many industry groups in the expo, it drew flocks of business and government VIPs, including Jacques Chaban-Delmas, the president of the National Assembly, who gave the official welcome to Batibois 86.A politician of national stature, he has been widely mentioned as a leading contender to succeed the current French president Francois Mitterand.
Among the new and innovative products displayed were unique metal plate connectors for joining poles and other round wood members to form virtually any size and shape frames. Wood fasteners for traditional framing sizes were also available.
I-beams comprised of a combination of wood and galvanized steel were touted as a quick construction member for walls, roofs and other applications.
One firm showed an ingenious product line of round and square
dowels with balls on one end and sockets on the other. They could be quickly and easily joined to form storage shelves, bookcases, benches, even more elaborate furniture, as well as serving as a skeleton for other uses.
Other firms showed building blocks in various sizes from 2' x 3' and up that were entire wall sec-
tions, complete with horizontally grooved siding on the outside, insulation in between and a smooth surface inside for the interior wall. Sections were sometimes cut diagonally at one end for fitting walls together, while others had
(Continued on next page)
United States: Minnesota, Michigan, Maryland, New York, New Jersey, Ohio, IIlinois, Missouri, Kentucky, Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Arkansas, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Calilornia.
Canada: British Columbia, Alberta, Ontario, Quebec.
(Continued Jiom page 33)
openings included for doors and windows.
As in the U.S., wood preserving is a growing market. Announced at Batibois (pronounced batty-bwah) were the four official classifications for treated wood by the Association Francaise pour la Preservation du Bois or the French wood preservation association.
The AFPB allows four classes: one and two involve brushed or painted on chemical preservatives for non-ground contact applications, while classes three and four are for wood pressure treated with water borne chemicals for use as sill stock and other ground contact applications. The AFPB is a rules writing and control organization only, similar to such groups in this country.
The computer revolution and the French enthusiam for it were much in evidence. Virtually scores of new software applications have been developed for applications ranging from land planning use through construction to product design. Videotext, a computer
method of bringing up information on practically any subject, was featured as well. Videotext has been a big success in France as the government has spent millions to force the development and use of this communication and information retrieval method. Experiments with it in the U.S. have not been commercially successful.
There were 291 exhibitors with 72 ofthem from l9 other countries. truly an international exposition. Like the attendance figures of more than 10,000 professional visitors, these numbers represent a slight increase from the first Batibois. held in 1984. The show willnext be held October 4-9, 1988.
The expo was again in Bordeaux, France. While perhaps better known for its outstanding red wines, Bordeaux is also adjacent to the largest single pine forest in Europe. The city will also be the site for the 1988 version. In addition to a large local wood industry, the Port of Bordeaux is active in shipping wood products. The Star Shipping Co., for example, has regular container line runs to Long Beach and Oakland, Ca.
Despite the talk here of our
A soft-textured wood with straight, close and uniformed grain, Ponderosa Pine is unexcelled for smoothness and fine appearance when surfaced. Suitable for many purposes, it has less tendency to split than denser woods. Excellent workability; extremely paintable; tops in gluing.
increased effort to reduce our trade deficit, there was not a single American exhibitor at this year's show. While several well-known American companies and their products were displayed, the exhibitors were their European representatives. Only a handful of American visitors were to be seen. a lamentable fact as Batibois has much to offer anyone connected to the wood business. Some observers expect increased American participation as the show becomes better known.
Seven nations took official part in Batibois: Cameroon. Canada. Finland. Ghana, Hungary, lvory Coast and Sweden. Their displays showed a high level of professionalism and commitment to vigorously marketing the woods of their respective countries.
The Swedes and Finns had a joint exhibit, part of a Scandinavian tradition of cooperating in such matters. Directly across the aisle was a large Canadian exhibit tied in with the Swedes and Finns.
The Canadians were promoting panels and siding in Western red
(Please turn to page 36)
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(Continued from page 34)
cedar (or Cedre Rouge de L'Ouest in that market) as well as Douglas fir sheathing, plywood and even framing lumber. Interestingly, the French are now growing their own Doug fir, the outgrowth of reforestation efforts in war damaged areas in central France after the end of World War II.
The cedar siding is a high price,
top of the market product and competes with domestic woods and pressure treated wood. Other items on display included shakes, Douglas fir plywood, hemlock paneling and a window and door shutter system made in Germany from Canadian wood.
More d-i-y products than ever before were to be seen. Especially popular were paneling and modular components, i.e., spindles, dowels and panels for tables, tv stands, shelves. furniture and the like.
U000 ll0IES are still a rarity in France. These four architects' homes in the Bordeaux area show a cautious approach to wood use. A shortage of skilled craltsmen exists, yet interest in more wood construction is growing, aided by government and industry efforts. lll Horizontal siding is often seen. l2l Built in 1981 this home shows limiled application of exlerior moulding. l3l Not all design approaches are successful, at least to the American eye. lll 1980 house, built in U-shape leatures flat roofs, vertical mansards and stucco walls. Cedar is a favored interior wood.
For example, Societe lndustrielle Forestiere showed a handsome line of d-i-y paneling in their Decorland line. The pastel colored tongue and groove wood strips are approximately 4" x l', 2' and 3' in length and are painted, then varnished. The firm sells throughout Europe and is currently eying the American market as are a number of other European building product producers.
Various federations and trade associations held meetings in con- junction with the show. The
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* C.B.S. is dealer owned Place To Go To Buy Lsv"'*
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* As you buy more the cost to belong goes down- ication system with participating members -not up
* C.B.S. has an in-house Lumber Department
* C.B.S. has a General Building Materials Dept.
* C.B.S. has a program with the Blue Crass Tool Company
Central Builders Supplies Company
215 Broadus Street Sturgis, Michigan 49091
Phone: (616) 651-1455
* C.B.S. Rebates are paid ro rhe members in cash
* C.B.S. has an in-house Building Speciahies Depr.
* C.B.S. operates as a non-profit companl'
* C.B.S. members share in the cost to operate
Heodquorters -[or the Allied Building Centers
Spanish Timber Confederation met as did several French organizations.
GLULAM (European Group of Manufacturers of Glulam frames) celebrated its 2Oth anniversary with a gathering. Several African countries took part in the Conference of African Ministers of Construction, also held at Batibois.
A wide variety of technical visits to sawmills, industrial plants, cabinet and furniture factories were also included. (see accompanYing photos of a tour of architects' all wood homes.)
One of the other tours was a visit to Villabois. a ll7 home village of all wood houses built as part of the first Batibois in 1984. After two years the homes appear in good condition (Bordeaux has a relatively mild climate) but still show signs of their hasty erection.
Batibois (a shorthand kind of word meaning, roughly, wood in construction) fulfilled its role of being an international gathering point for those interested in wood and wood construction. The displays and related activities left no doubt the show's future is bright indeed.
(Continued from page 9)
rates and the proliferation of twoincome households have made mortgages more affordable. Home equity loans, a hot new vehicle by virtue of their continued tax deductible interest feature, will give our industry an important psychological boost.
Our internecine warehouse wars are over, and most of the warehousing companies lost. From a high count of seven, their numbers have been reduced to two-and-a-
(Continued from Page 11) encourage tenants to stay in this renter's market.
Gypsum wallboard usage in the R&R market is expected to increase nearly 100/o in 1987, mainly due to the healthy existing home sales market. Close to 1.1 billion feet of wallboard is expected to be consumed in the residential repair market next year.
Sales of vinyl siding in the residential residing market should
half: Home Depot and Builder's Square make two, and the "half is the "Zayre Club." ConsequentlY, pressures on gross margins will continue to easewhich is good news for companies feeling a need to show improved earnings, as Lowe's does. The loss of the investment tax credit will hurt Lowe's 1986 earning by several cents per share; but with a progressivelY lower tax rate on the horizon, the outlook for 1987 and'88 earnings is considerabley brighter. So we're putting on our sunglasses and pushing the button marked "Penthouse." Upward into the future!
exceed 6.5 million squares next year. Shipments have been increasing almost l0o/o each year as the usage grows to virtually all regions of the country.
In the last two years, the Northeast's share of remodeling expenditures has increased, while the South's share declined. It is too early to tell if this trend will continue into 1987. Even with these changes, the South remains the number one remodeling market, followed by the Northeast, North Central and West, respectively.
Price Wayne Hendricks, retired owner of Athens Lumber Co., Athens. Al.. died Oct. 4. 1986. in Athens. He was 82.
He had also owned HendricksPatton Co., Rancl Furniture and Appliance and Alabama Hendricks Farms.
Mr. Hendricks is survived by two daughters, a sister, three grandchildren, and a great-grandchild.
Walter M. Fields, Jr., Walter M. Fields Lumber Co., Inc., Memphis, Tn., was elected the 45th president of the National Hardwood Lumber Association at its 89th annual convention, held in Montreal, Canada.
Fields has long been deeply involved in the National Hardwood Lumber Association. He was first elected director in 1974 and served until 1980 when he entered vicepresidential succession. His name was closely connected with the association's inspection school in Memphis. When the decision was made to move the NHLA offices from Chicago to Memphis in 1977, Fields was chdirman of the building committee which supervised the design and construction of the new office and educational facilities.
(Continued from page l7)
think prices will probably hold firm or even increase slightly.
Canadian producers have enjoyed up to a 33% share of the U.S. market. On Oct. 16 of this year, an import duty of l5o/o was imposed on imports of Canadian softwood lumber. The net effect could mean an increase in demand from U.S. mills in rhe Pacific Northwest, if they are prudent in their pricing. At any rate, there is little doubt this action will exert an upward pressure in FOB mill prices in softwood lumber domestically, as well as a probable increase in transportation prices due to spot shortages of lumber-hauling equipment by western rail carriers.
Vice-presidents elected for similar two-year terms, are John G. Thomson, Peter Thomson & Sons Ltd., Alliston, Ontario, Henry C. Fulcher, Jr., Sitco Lumber Co., Wilmer, Tx., and Jim C. Hamer, Jim C. Hamer Co., Kenova, W.V.
Two directors were elected to fill unexpired terms: John O. Schaffhauser, Anderson-Tully Co., Memphis, and John C. Sirianni. Sirianni Hardwoods, Inc., Painted Post, N.Y. Newly elected direcrors are: Wallace A. Buchanan, Buchanan Hardwoods, Inc., Selma, Al.; Joe W. Mathias, Frank Miller Lumber Co., Inc., Union City, In.; James T. Powell, Jr., Canton Hardwood Co., Inc., Canton. N.C.: Gerald Slavney, Thompson-Katz Lumber Co., Inc., Memphis, and Emmett P. Vaughn, Jr., Emmer Vaughn Lumber Co., Knoxville. Tn.
The 1300 registrants attending the opening session heard the Honorable Daniel Johnson, minister of industry and commerce for the Government of Quebec, discuss opportunities for doing business in Canada. Troy Stinson, Noranda Inc., analyzed the Canadian/U.S. situation concerning sofrwood imports to rhe U.S. John D. Abernathy, chairman and c.e.o. of Seidman and Seidman, forecast a furniture industry shipments growth to $14.5 biltion. The convention was held october 20-22. The second general session.
essenlially a business meeting, heard reports from the active committees and acted on matters of concern to the association and the industry. A proposal to alter the definition of a clear-face cutting in the association's hardwood lumber grading rules failed for lack of support.
Meetings of the Hardwood Distributors Association, the American Walnut Manufacturers Association, International Hardwood Products Association. National Lumber Exporters Association and the Hardwood Export Trade Council were held in conjunction wirh the NHLA meeting. Milton Cole, John L Shafer Lumber Co.. Logansport, In., was elected president of the HDA.
The 1987 NHLA convenrion will be held in Washington D.C.
Although the forest products industry's prospects for growth in 1987 appear slim, BN expects modest growth in its forest products business. This growth will come about as.a result of greater carrying capacity in our fleet, due to our new centerbeam flatcars. Growth will also come from traffic originated on BN, but more important, from traffic received from connectins carriers.
In the U.S.. demand is expected to remain relatively strong in the Northeast, with some softening in the Midwest due to continuine problems in the farm economy. ThE forest products market is expected to be good in California but flat in the Pacific Northwest, and strug- gling in the energy-dependenr economy of the South and Southwest.
o
Our annual Southern Pine Specia! IS. We'll be talking about its uses, characteristics, marketing, grading, current market conditions, and how retailers and wholesalers can profitably buy and sell Southern Pine.
ADVERTISERS: act today to be sure your ad' vertisement is included in this important special issue. Cet your message before our 12,750 readers in 13 Southern states. Deadline for the January Southern Pine Special Issue is December 12. For information, write the ad' dress below or call (collect) (714) 852-1990. markets
lf you sell into the West, orany part of it, we can help you get across yourmessage.
The Merchant Magazine covers all 13 Western states. Founded in 1922, it has been the listened to voice of the industry in the West for more than six decades. Our longevity also proves we can get an advertiser's message to the important trade factors better than any other medium. And at the right price.
Our paid circulation is nearly 5,000; a remarkable vote of confidence as these industry influentials also receive at least four or five free magazines monthly. The Merchant's paid circulation tells you
clearly which magazine Westemers red.
The Merchant's unique blend of news, merchandising and marketing information, salted with personal newsand notes and seasoned to the Westemers' taste reaches an audience of home centers, home improvement centers and lumber dealers as well as the wholesalers, distributors and jobbers that back them up. The Merchant, incidentally, is the sister publication of Building Products Digest.
You can count on reaching the market in the West through The Merchant Magazine. Calltoday, you'llbe glad you did.
