Technology Metatrends l 121
TABLE A.2 Metatrend 2: Data-Driven and Hybrid Human-Machine Technologies for Productive Activities 1. Global lockdown has interrupted global supply chains, accelerating pressures on wages, reshoring, and automation. 2. New production technologies will reconfigure digital supply chains and the demand for labor-intensive exports from developing countries. With few large-scale export sectors in the South Asia region, industrial activities may increasingly shift to producing for local consumption. 3. Digital technologies and innovations will disrupt production processes in nearly every sector: agriculture (precision farming), transport (self-driving cars), manufacturing (robotics, 3-D printing), retail (e-commerce), finance (e-payments, AI-driven trading), media (social networks), health (AI diagnostics, telemedicine, drug discovery), education (online learning, virtual classrooms), and public administration (e-governance). 4. The role of data will increase, both as a resource and as a source of power. Driven by global competition, the South Asia region will see increasing use of AI, robotics, and additive manufacturing, services, and knowledge work. Data-enabled machines and processes will become more deeply integrated with the knowledge economy and replace tasks once performed by humans. A new blend of human-machine interaction may improve productivity but displace many low-skilled jobs. In a world in which humans and machines compete for cognitive performance and societal relevance, new definitions of agency and self-determination may be needed. 5. Employment prospects in the information and communications technology, outsourcing, and freelance sectors remain strong in parts of South Asia, facilitated by new work styles and ubiquitous digital services.
6. Digital entrepreneurs, including in diaspora networks, are mobilizing funding and technical solutions. 7. The new and different jobs emerging are rooted in human abilities (such as judgment and creativity), interpersonal skills, and compassion. 8. Modern management practices can leverage disruptive technologies to help firms improve performance and enable innovations. Competitive pressures will push firms into adult education, expanding new forms of on-the-job training. 9. Workers in both formal and informal jobs will need to reskill and upskill frequently to keep up with the evolution of technology. 10. AI-enabled digital platforms can match employers and job seekers with high accuracy and quickly bring on board “gig” workers for temporary assignments. 11. Social distancing will have a lasting impact on the physical distribution of work (such as the future design of urban spaces, slum upgrading, and expansion of secondary cities). 12. Digital employment records will be integrated and linked with e-commerce, digital finance, mobility, and health and education services. 13. Second-order effects will emerge. High levels of un(der)employment, particularly among migrant workers in urban areas, are putting pressure on a fragmented social protection system. Demographic pressures, especially a growing youth bulge, may force governments to launch a new generation of employment programs. 14. Uncertainty over employment will intensify pressures for portable minimum insurance benefits.
(Table continues on next page)
