Technology Metatrends

This chapter goes on to describe the technology metatrends and critical uncertainties developed for this study, summarize the four scenario narratives developed with the scenario participants, and outline recommendations emanating from the scenario exercise.

As discussed in chapter 2 of this report, the relationship between human capital and technology is close and complex and runs in both directions. On the one hand, technologies can be used to build and protect human capital and they affect the demand for human capital. On the other hand, human capital is an input in an economy’s use of new technologies and contributes to the creation of new technologies. Within the broad constellation of technologies and drivers characterizing converging technologies, the study team identified four technology metatrends that were expected to affect human capital development in South Asia. Each of these metatrends is discussed briefly in what follows and is explained further in detail in appendix A.

Technologies for building and protecting human capital. This metatrend centers on the deep disruptions caused by COVID-19, which has forced millions of families to cope with extended lockdowns, school closures, health emergencies, and loss of lives and livelihoods. From a technology perspective, the pandemic has focused attention on the need for digital connectivity and readily deployable platforms, devices, and content for delivering health services, education, and social protection services. Beneath the expected flurry of new premium services offered by a growing number of private education and health platforms catering predominantly to urban households with the necessary digital connectivity and ability to pay, the day-to-day reality for most of the population remains one of digital exclusion, rising inequality, and lack of digital skills. Over time, governments will offer emergency assistance in the form of digitally enabled transfer payments and hybrid education over radio, television, and telephone, as well as telemedicine, funded by fiscal expansion, remittances by diaspora communities, and scaled-up assistance by development partners. Systemwide reforms that engage stakeholders to adapt technologies, delivery formats, and capabilities to accelerate human capital outcomes across the region are set to gain momentum over the coming years.

The converging technology revolution, however, goes beyond digital applications, as explained earlier. The potential implications for development bring into sharp relief humanity’s resilience to cope with disasters, the importance of community preparedness and local support mechanisms to respond to disasters, and the rapid adoption of a range of technologies that can be used effectively in local contexts to extend and improve health and education services. The negative effects of the converging technology revolution will be reflected in a deepening of inequities for underprivileged groups without access to new technologies that rely on connectivity and digital skills, a rise in gender-based violence fueled by technology and psycho-emotional stress on families,

massive learning losses for out-of-school children, and an erosion of trust in the ability of core institutions to make timely decisions based on available information.

Data-driven and human-machine production technologies revolve around the growing reliance on data-driven technologies in the manufacturing and service sectors and the impact of automation on the interactions between humans and machines. The implications range from artificial intelligence (AI)–directed automation and decision routines, to the reconfiguration of global supply chains to mitigate the risks of disruptions in the wake of disasters, to the prospect of new job requirements in the information economy. The growing role of data, both as a resource and as a source of power, is presenting challenges to traditional, export-led development pathways and is elevating the importance of connectivity and data integration among companies, employees, markets, and consumer preferences.

What are the positive and negative implications arising from this metatrend? Following patterns observed during previous technological revolutions, this period will usher in a new wave of entrepreneurial activity, accelerate the adoption of digital modes of production, and raise global awareness of the fragility of societies, with possibly longterm effects on values and consumer preferences. Potential downsides include job losses stemming from the widening gaps in technological capabilities and skills across and within societies, the growing job insecurity arising from the accelerating shift to parttime gig work, and a winner-take-all dynamic in many information markets. The latter will be driven by globally operating technology companies and data brokers that dominate data services and analytics, create markets-in-everything, and influence decisionmaking in all areas of daily lives. Looking ahead, the rapid emergence of converging technologies may prompt a fundamental reappraisal of traditional development models that assumed continued economic growth and a gradual shift of production patterns to emerging economies—and the mounting threats to global sustainability, which have been ignored for too long.

Dynamic innovation ecosystems for human development offer an alternative to the traditional prescriptions of centrally funded research and development programs that are out of reach for most developing countries. Instead, innovation ecosystems increasingly tap into entrepreneurial dynamism, mobilize the participation of diverse stakeholder groups, and gain digital access to expertise networks, funding, and global knowledge to create new opportunities in many spheres of human development. A tech-enabled civic culture can develop solutions to local problems through granular innovation processes and citizen-driven access to technologies, data, and bottom-up experimentation. New forms of collaboration among scientific and innovation communities are emerging that pool access to digital technologies, data, and computing power for drug discovery, personalized health and education services, and the microtargeting of social services. Countries in South Asia share a common aspiration to build up domestic capabilities to participate in this global knowledge system, assisted by global business and technology groups keen to gain a foothold in these markets and wellconnected diaspora communities with access to critical know-how and funding.