Critical Uncertainties

What are the implications for development? The upside of these new dynamics is that governments have an opportunity to demonstrate leadership and competence in steering innovation to tackle societal challenges, mobilize resources, and build up trust, working in partnership with private companies and civil society. More granular innovation aided by digital technologies can also lead to faster learning and diffusion. At the same time, the pandemic has cast a harsh spotlight on pervasive gaps in the deployment of readily available innovations that, in turn, may raise questions about an unfinished decentralization agenda and the need to strengthen institutional capabilities for the delivery of health services, education, and social assistance, especially at the local government levels. More fundamentally, the potential for innovative technology solutions triggers questions of how digital access, usage, and skills are distributed across societies. The governance of dual-use technologies is a question of global concern, involving issues of regulation, oversight, and data rights, with potentially far-reaching implications for human rights and dignity. The capacity to use citizens’ personal data for surveillance and behavioral monitoring is expanding and will expose new cybersecurity vulnerabilities. The convergence of AI and biotechnologies, for example, has the potential to change how the genomes of humans and other species are computed, designed, and programmed. Meanwhile, the growing reliance on algorithms in many areas of life is raising concerns about the need for safeguards against biased decision-making, the concentration of data, and the spread of misinformation. At the same time, the opensource software movement is here to stay, relying on decentralized technologies and available datasets to innovate in a “permissionless” sphere beyond the purview of government control. The implications of this metatrend are subject to intense debates at the global and national levels. On the positive side, the urgency of addressing this set of issues holds out the prospect of renewed collaboration among public, private, and civil society actors to agree on a core set of normative principles to ensure equal access and transparent use, backed up by data security and inclusion for all. Greater access to AI applications and converging technologies can empower local communities to innovate with their own data and connect digitally with innovation networks elsewhere. On the negative side, the unchartered governance of dual-use technologies opens the window to encroachment, manipulation, and control, undermining trust and societal cohesion.

The severity of the crisis brought about by COVID-19 signals the first critical uncertainty.3 A source of immediate concern is whether there is adequate global understanding of the transmission dynamics, the viral mutations, and the nature of the pandemic trajectories in South Asia relative to those observed in Europe and America. Would response mechanisms, including testing, therapeutics, and vaccines, be developed, accessible, and affordable in a timely manner? A related issue centers on the magnitude of the primary and secondary effects of the pandemic on lives in South Asia. Would medical facilities be able

to handle the surge in demand? What are the pandemic’s impacts on the existing health burden across the region? Would recurrent lockdowns and other containment measures end up reversing the region’s aspirations for human development for years to come? And last, given the uncertain length and depth of the COVID-19 crisis, questions arise about the likely effects on livelihoods and equity in South Asia. Would frontline social services be able to cope and adapt? Would teachers be willing and able to teach? Would children, especially girls, return to school? Would economies reopen or revert to shutdowns? How would vulnerable groups be able to cope and survive?

This cascading set of uncertainties about the severity of the crisis engendered by the pandemic is posing fundamental questions about the trade-offs between saving lives, protecting livelihoods, and investing in recovery. On the positive end of the spectrum, the rapid production and deployment of effective vaccines would offer the prospect of a return to normalcy and underscore the critical importance of scientific capabilities and discoveries. Rapid vaccine deployment would be instrumental in containing the pandemic, showcasing well-functioning delivery capabilities across government and society at large and limiting the long-term erosion of human capital. On the other end of the spectrum, recurrent waves of infection combined with delays in preparedness and ineffective responses would exact a mounting toll across the region in terms of loss of lives, livelihoods, and prospects for recovery. Fundamentally, although this uncertainty is set against the immediate context of the pandemic, it holds broader significance in light of the region’s high exposure and vulnerability to other types of disaster, especially those related to climate change.

A second critical uncertainty centers on the future of the domestic and international order, which may affect social cohesion at the national and local levels, regional political stability, and the delivery of adequate international support. 1 One source of this uncertainty lies at the national level and revolves around the impact of social distancing and economic shutdowns on vulnerable groups, the role of community leaders in helping citizens cope and maintain trust in public institutions, and the trade-offs being made in balancing the crisis response between collective safety and protection of individual rights. A second source emanates from the interactions between nations in the region and outside and involves the prospect of global tensions spilling over into the region, with impacts escalating into a rise of domestic nationalism, the imposition of trade restrictions (such as on critical medical supplies, including vaccines), or sharp downturns in foreign investments and development assistance. Reflecting the growing role of technologies in global competition and alliance dynamics, there is also lack of clarity as to whether the crisis will trigger a backlash against global technology dependence, how critical advances in science, technology, and innovation to combat the virus will be shared or used in the pursuit of diplomatic goals, and what role local innovation systems may play in developing solutions to local problems and diffusing them across wider communities.

As this set of factors grouped under the second critical uncertainty plays itself out over the course of the pandemic, a positive outcome would demonstrate the political acumen of leaders to instill trust, a deep reservoir of community resilience and compassion, and the global resolve to mobilize the needed financial support and make vaccines widely available.