A.1 Metatrend 1: Technologies for Building and Protecting Human Capital

APPENDIX A

TABLE A.1 Metatrend 1: Technologies for Building and Protecting Human Capital

Impacts of disruptions caused by COVID-19 1. The pandemic is causing deep disruptions in daily routines and the social organization of family life, school, and work. Beyond the immediate health emergency, a strong negative impact is the side effect of lower economic growth, resulting in higher poverty rates and loss of life from malnutrition and other diseases. 2. As countries across the region maintain extended lockdowns, health systems and social assistance programs are strained to save lives and protect livelihoods. 3. With millions of children out of school, there is rising concern about long-term learning losses and permanent school dropouts, especially among girls. 4. COVID-19 lockdowns are resulting in a temporary halt in ongoing nutrition, welfare, and treatment programs, leaving many people without access to health care and causing a long-term increase in mortality. 5. Food security remains a source of concern over the medium term and is testing the resilience of supply chains. 1. Expansion and upgrading of mobile access. 2. In response to school closures, many education systems scaling up distance learning programs, using radios, television, and SMS (short message service) channels for instructions. Choice of education technology varies according to location, connectivity, and affordability. 3. Renewed focus on expansion of digital platforms for delivery of health and education services. The transition will be affected by requirements for system integration, development of new teaching content, questions about learning impact, and review of national testing standards. 4. In parallel, new offerings vying for user adoption, facilitated by digital micropayments for health, education, insurance, and welfare services. 5. Increasing differentiation among providers, with pioneers at the frontier offering personalized and immersive learning at a premium. Travel and visa restrictions causing a sharp reduction in study-abroad programs. 6. Rollout of training programs for teachers and health care professionals to help with the adoption and use of new technologies. Programs will also capture data, track performance, check eligibility, and verify attendance. (Table continues on next page)

Technology trends

TABLE A.1 Metatrend 1: Technologies for Building and Protecting Human Capital (continued)

Impacts of disruptions caused by COVID-19 Technology trends 7. Telemedicine expanding access to primary care, particularly for remote communities, easing the shortage of qualified health professionals.

Medical equipment shortages are prompting local responses, such as 3-D printing of personal protective equipment. Over the medium term, telemedicine offers opportunities for upgraded medical care. Machine learning and artificial intelligence (AI) will improve disease diagnoses, leading to better health outcomes and improvements in human well-being. 8. More granular solutions (such as solar, microhydro, and battery storage) offering reliable, cost-effective energy sources, especially for households. Better access to energy remains a key building block for a desirable quality of life and well-being by enabling improvements in education, health, food production, clean water, sanitation, air quality, resilience to climate change, security, and safety.

Metatrend 1: Potential Implications for Development

Positive

1. The COVID-19 crisis has demonstrated that humans are resilient and adaptable, provided that suitable technologies are available. 2. Rapid exposure to technology applications will increase digital adoption and offer alternatives to overcrowded school and health facilities. 3. New production possibilities for education, knowledge, health care, and social assistance may expand access to opportunities. 4. New entrants promise to expand the affordability and accessibility of primary education and health care. 5. Learning communities can provide mentorship and human-centered approaches to converging technologies (such as 3-D printing, interactive games, and local content development). 6. Growing awareness among young people of the need to develop adaptive skills and interdisciplinary literacy—cyber-infosecurity, bio-preparedness, and resilience. 7. Returning migrants and tech entrepreneurs in the diaspora help accelerate technologybased initiatives. 1. Lack of anticipation of inclusion, democratization, and community involvement may deepen existing inequalities between privileged elites and digitally underprivileged groups, resulting in more fragmentation across society. 2. Lack of data about online learning makes it difficult to assess outcomes and identify new ways to combat shortfalls. 3. Lack of training and technical support may lead teachers to feel overwhelmed and oppose the use of new teaching formats. 4. The additional burden borne by mothers and working parents and the cost of online learning may aggravate psycho-emotional stress on families and lead to a long-term decline in nurturing and learning outcomes for children. 5. Digital tracing applications and data mashups raise complex trade-offs among protection, social control and surveillance, bias, cyber risks, and manipulation. 6. Without investments in human capital infrastructure, such as water and sanitation, energy and environment, mobile connectivity, and sustainable food production, South Asia could face steeper declines in living standards, divergence in opportunities, and greater inequality. Are available no-tech and lowtech solutions being crowded out by digital investments?

Negative