SCENARIO PLANNING: IMAGINING ALTERNATIVE FUTURES FOR HUMAN DEVELOPMENT l 95
What are the implications for development? The upside of these new dynamics is that governments have an opportunity to demonstrate leadership and competence in steering innovation to tackle societal challenges, mobilize resources, and build up trust, working in partnership with private companies and civil society. More granular innovation aided by digital technologies can also lead to faster learning and diffusion. At the same time, the pandemic has cast a harsh spotlight on pervasive gaps in the deployment of readily available innovations that, in turn, may raise questions about an unfinished decentralization agenda and the need to strengthen institutional capabilities for the delivery of health services, education, and social assistance, especially at the local government levels. More fundamentally, the potential for innovative technology solutions triggers questions of how digital access, usage, and skills are distributed across societies. The governance of dual-use technologies is a question of global concern, involving issues of regulation, oversight, and data rights, with potentially far-reaching implications for human rights and dignity. The capacity to use citizens’ personal data for surveillance and behavioral monitoring is expanding and will expose new cybersecurity vulnerabilities. The convergence of AI and biotechnologies, for example, has the potential to change how the genomes of humans and other species are computed, designed, and programmed. Meanwhile, the growing reliance on algorithms in many areas of life is raising concerns about the need for safeguards against biased decision-making, the concentration of data, and the spread of misinformation. At the same time, the opensource software movement is here to stay, relying on decentralized technologies and available datasets to innovate in a “permissionless” sphere beyond the purview of government control. The implications of this metatrend are subject to intense debates at the global and national levels. On the positive side, the urgency of addressing this set of issues holds out the prospect of renewed collaboration among public, private, and civil society actors to agree on a core set of normative principles to ensure equal access and transparent use, backed up by data security and inclusion for all. Greater access to AI applications and converging technologies can empower local communities to innovate with their own data and connect digitally with innovation networks elsewhere. On the negative side, the unchartered governance of dual-use technologies opens the window to encroachment, manipulation, and control, undermining trust and societal cohesion.
Critical Uncertainties The severity of the crisis brought about by COVID-19 signals the first critical uncertainty.3 A source of immediate concern is whether there is adequate global understanding of the transmission dynamics, the viral mutations, and the nature of the pandemic trajectories in South Asia relative to those observed in Europe and America. Would response mechanisms, including testing, therapeutics, and vaccines, be developed, accessible, and affordable in a timely manner? A related issue centers on the magnitude of the primary and secondary effects of the pandemic on lives in South Asia. Would medical facilities be able
