HOW TO THINK LIKE A FUTURIST BY ROBERT TUCKER
When Covid shut down life as we know it a year ago, many a company went into “batten down the hatches” mode. They followed their recession playbooks. When demand took off instead, in such industries as exercise equipment, pet products, and virtual meeting software, many were caught flat-footed. Some are still struggling to catch up. Wisconsin-based Trek Bicycles is out front right now based on its superior ability to forecast the future. While company officials were reluctant to speak on the record about their early warning system, Trek’s competitors are suffering supply shortages, unfilled orders, and missed opportunities. Relying blindly on one’s recession playbook turned out to be a mistake in many industries when customers surprised them by going in different directions. Bicycle sales plummeted at first, but were among the first to begin to experience an unexpected surge. In a perennially flat market, they shot up 81 percent over the next 12 months. Trek’s top-flight forecasting unit saw the countertrend developing and took bold action. “This allowed us to start buying up supplies really early,” noted a company official who did not want to be quoted. “We’re buying product now out into calendar year 2022.” The need to shore up your early warning system both personally and organizationally is a big take-away from the Pandemic, but the skillset is nothing new. Miss a market shift or misread an important development and the bottom-line results can be disastrous. Jump on a demand trend quickly and you benefit from first mover status. The need to make prediction-based decisions has never been greater. As a futurist and innovation coach, I’m convinced every person in leadership and indeed every person in organizational life needs to master the art of thinking like a futurist. We futurists do not have crystal balls, and we do not claim to “predict” trends. If someone claims an inherent ability to predict trends — my suggestion is that person is a charlatan. What we do is to help clients forecast and interpret trends strategically. In fast changing environments, he who hesitates is lost, as the expression has it. If you wait for others to show you the way to go, it may cost you big time. It’s easy to misread the signals of change because there is simply so much “noise” that poses as signal. The good news is this: with a bit of extra attention, you can build up your skills in this little understood arena and your own forecasting skills can become a strength rather than a vulnerability. Not only will this lead to faster response times, but your improved capability at spotting and interpreting trends will empower you to pounce on emerging opportunities. 46 | USSWIMSCHOOLS.ORG
