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กก%  • ก       1  3   กก • ก     .. 2551-2555 • %&'()  *% +(  ( •  ก , .. 2551-2555 • ก ก*-./  ,0- 2555

24 ก 2554

1 %+      7.118  ((-  65 :( GDP) (.+/1((ก)

,ก1 ก,  1%

(ก)18%   ก5 7% 7%. +0- 36%

 38% :(1

 22 ?5ก- 2554


5ภภ?-Oภ, 1+%  , :( 3   ภ:(  , Oภ    7  ภภ% 

       + - 12% :( GDP  .. 2540

140%

128%

128%

120% 105%

100%

98% 98%

76%

80%

75%

67%% 65

72% 72%

67%

60%

52% 52%

40%

39%% 39

ภ?-Oภ,

20% 7%

12%

12%

Bank Loan / GDP

Equity Market / GDP

2554 (Q3)

2553

2552

2551

2550

2549

2548

2547

2546

2545

2544

2543

2542

2541

2540

2539

2538

2537

2535

0%

2536

7%

Bond Market / GDP

&'(% - - 1+ภ       '-'-& The 5ภภ , Thai Bond Market has Developed Rapidly and Efficiently   10

8

Oภ    7  ภภ% 



100%

ภ+(0 2554: + ภ-ภ  PD + ภ)&'(V- *1*% + LB 50 , ILB 80% + 7 &'(--+(-C

 2550 @ 2553: ภ     

ภ? @ 2543:  ภ((ภ&'(ภ,Cภ5  1 %+     ':D 3 +  7 ':Dภ+ 50 +



((ภ7 Benchmark (-+ 'O (



%&'(&(ภ +P

 .  5 ภ  ),ŕ¸

 +:(     

   ':D5ภ3%  44

(BoT and PD)

67 65%%

6

)+ภ+(ภ?-Oภ, -      0+ *% +( - 0+ Benchmark bond - /1((ภ+ T+%&(  ภ5 - ภ, + T+--+(-

% of GDP

4

60%

40%

2555F

2554 (Q1)

2553

2552

2551

2550

2549

2548

2547

2546

2545

2544

2543

2542

2541

0% 2540

0 2539

20%

2538

2

1


2550 . , ภ-, ภ((ภ7 7  .ภ  .ภ33. . 2550 .  , ภ-, 7Z7Zภ((ภ ภ    , ภ ภ  Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance - Thailand Oภ

   7  ภภ% 

I.

%[ 'ภ1

II.

'1 +(%

5ภ  Z  1 %  &( &( (&'(ภ+( ภ ภภ5- supply :(7 Benchmark 'O ( ( )

+-: 

8,000

10,000

12,000

15,000

4,000 FYFY07 50

III. ':(7 Benchmark

+-: 

FY 51 FY08

FY 52 FY09

1 0 0, 0 0 0

FY 52 FY10

FY 54 FY11

1 2 0, 0 0 0

40,000 FYFY07 50

FY 51 FY08

FY 52 FY09

FY 52 FY10

FY 54 FY11

2


Keep Our Word to get Investor Confidence for the Plan

Firm Committed Supply of Benchmark Bond Regardless of Budget uncertainty ก   , ก  ก 

Million Baht

200,000

207,270

Actual

+170% 175,999

200,500

203,000

+2%

+33% 43,191

60,000

59%)

677,961 MB (+

+86%

80,000

100,000 65,000

Total Funding needs increased from: 424,691 MB to

Plan

0

CASH BAL = 278,694 MB

Benchmark Bond

200,000

0 Benchmark Bond

CASH BAL = 417,166 MB

154,000

170,000

131,000

100,000

-45%

-8%

-51% 82,233

20%)

Actual

281,000

309,826

310,000

300,000

60,000

635,000 MB (-

Others

Plan

0%

+118% Total Funding needs decreased from: 801,171 MB to

T-Bill (Outstanding)

Million Baht

FY2010 Lower Borrowing needs due to Economic Recovery approx. -160,000 MB

Savings Bond

261,171

400,000

Non Benchmark Bond

80,692

Higher government funding needs due to Stimulus Package I & II approx. +250,000 MB

+40%

238,941

300,000

281,000

FY2009

Non Benchmark Bond

Savings Bond

T-Bill

Others

(Outstanding)

Keep Our Word to get Investor Confidence for the Plan

Firm Committed Supply of Benchmark Bond Regardless of Budget uncertainty ก   , ก  ก 

Million Baht 400,000

FY 2011

Plan

approx. -250,000

300,000

339,900

349,500

Higher than expected revenue collection

Actual

-3%

MB

Total Funding needs decreased from: 709,014 MB to

-38%

36%)

125,691

+344% 9,000

1,072

0

CASH BAL = 510,180 MB

0 Benchmark Bond

Non Benchmark Bond

Saving Bond

T-Bill (Outstanding)

ILB

-85% 29,954

-26% 70,000

95,000

100,000

40,000

452,617 MB (-

205,514

204,000

200,000

Others

3


%  , :(     0 Oภ    7  ภภ% 

/1((ภ   

•   82       ŕ¸

ภ  !" #$ %&'()* "!+  %, $"+ !-*) * .   

%, *   

•   98      #$ ภ- ภ%  %,$"+ !-*) *

! * Investment Grade

/1[&(%(   

•      %&, ภ* $

  %ภ. .ภ #; +% !" )ภ$ภ%

    (.+/1((ภ) Total Outstanding 7.118  

 %+)&'([&(:(    *- BBB

2%

A

(ภ)

19

%

  ภ5 8

%

7. 36%

AA

(&'P

9%

7%

3%

 39%

AAA

 38

4%

  ภ5 8

%

    (.+/1[(& )

Government

%

13%

27 %  ( ภ, --)

(ภ,--+(-)

39% Household and Non-profit

32

%

Depository Corporation

7% )-Z26% 18 %

%

 ' : ThaiBMA (30 ภ-- 2554)

2550-2554

38

Insurance and % Other Corporation

(ภ,+))

7. 34

 ' : ThaiBMA (22 ?5ภ- 2554)

5%

7.

 ' : 7. (30 ภ-- 2554)

ภ:(   

FY 2550-2553

Oภ    7  ภภ% 

7 30 

• )+ ATM f )    

ภ+!ภ6 I D 10 I • * . Portfolio  $$ ภ5.7 D 6.3 I

7 . (- 4  (FRB)

• )+% !" Float ` Fixed ภ5% D 13% • ! +#$ !   BIBOR

((-Z: 0

• & %ภ. ! ; -!" * Q () P ภภ

+ • #  ภ,  %&,  -!"; ภ  .% F,%

FY 2011

l TT)-- (( (ภ -% ')

7 50  7) )-jk( 7 &'(--+(-C

FY 2012

Amortized Bond Bond Switching & Consolidation

, 7 V-)Z. 

 ' PD

â&#x20AC;˘ ; %ภ. ")+ =ภ%  *) " / " ภ . â&#x20AC;˘ P+!  .ภ%, Benchmark Bond â&#x20AC;˘  ,< ภ,)= + * . Portfolio â&#x20AC;˘ D  ) 4   ภ)

ภ% F,% -  50 I (! ภ  %ภK L %) ;  ) â&#x20AC;˘  ,< UV ( â&#x20AC;˘ )+$"+ ภ      ภ %,     P!ภâ&#x20AC;˘ D  ; ภ Emerging Asia Economies )

ภILB â&#x20AC;˘ " % )= ภ '*  1,000 , â&#x20AC;˘ + '* P  % I â&#x20AC;˘ + '* Q! $ *)  ATM â&#x20AC;˘ â&#x20AC;˘ â&#x20AC;˘ â&#x20AC;˘

$ *) +*  ภ

 +. = %,$ ภ Mega Project  ;,, PPP  -= $*   ภ! $ ,ภ= .  *) ! +" %ภ $ %

%&, ;  %ภ. +  %,

<ภ . ; ,  % ภ 

<P !+ F# )+" $$ !

.! + = " .! )   $ ! ))+(   



ภ(, ภ1&'(ภ V%    7  .        (ภ.)

Baht Bond

CGIF (Credit Guarantee and Investment Facility)

4


%&'()  % Ot5:(ภ 7 Benchmark Oภ    7  ภภ% 

Popular Benchmark Bond: % F,% Benchmark .! . 5 I +ภ '*  D % %,) 1  ($ D 25%   ภ '* % + )

 !": % Share of Market Trading Volume

Turnover Ratio: % F,%

.! . 5 I !ภ"!$!f )       ) 0.7 - 1.0

28%

27% 20%

5

20%

3.9 3.1

1.7

2.4

2.2

7% FY 51 FY08

FY 52 FY09

FY 53 FY10

FYFY11 54

Demand Concentration:   80  ภ '* % F,%

%&,   

ภ.ภ%" ! 10 % %,; ŕ¸

FY07 FY 50

FY08 FY 51

FY09 FY 52

FY10 FY 53 FY11 FY 54

Well Developed Benchmark Bond Pays Off: %&,  +. "% F,%

Benchmark P $ภ$ภ%, 

 !": % Share of Market Trading Volume

+3.2 bps +1.4 bps

+1.2 bps

70%

383,269 .

76%

80%

223,363 .

78%

440,826 .

84%

409,900 .

FY 50 FY07

-0.4 bps FY07 FY 50

FY08 FY 51

FY09 FY 52

FY10 FY 53

FY11 FY 54

FYFY51 51

FY 52 FY52

FYFY53 53

FY 54 FY54

&'(0::(7) )-jk( (Inflation Linked Bond: ILB) (14 ภ.%. 2554) Oภ    7  ภภ% 

1.

Capital Indexed Bond (%,%()

ภ, 



,+(-,:(7

10 



40,000 

)O (ภ -

,ภ6  &(

) ((

Headline CPI

Indexation Lag

3  &(

Index Ratio

CPIt /CPI0

( (ภ -.5

1.2 %

7 ภ)O%&

Bullet

ภ+(0 ภ((ภ(-++(&(' 

ภ5  [ภ+

15,000 MB

[ภ

20,000 MB

5,000 MB

--+(-

ภ5(w&( :  1.4 +

+  *% +(:(7) )-jk(  FY 2555 :  ./ภ((ภILB (-++(&'( -7 ภ1 (,ภ0 )  FY 2012 : '-( %%:( ILB ,+(-, ( ภ60,000  '( +  *% +( ภ ILB ./+(0 : ((ภILB ,+(-,(&' (3- 5- 7 )

 ' :( PD

 FY 2012 : ภC  +ภ1 ILB   .ŕ¸

./+(0 : ภC  +ภ)&(:- ILB   ( ./+(0 :  ( firm bid / ask spreads   (

5


13

z  7 &'(--+(-C (Retail Bond @ ATM for Micro Savers) 29 .%. 54 Oภ    7  ภภ% 

 ภ .  ภ ภ 

ภ  !"#! $ ภ #! !%ภ   # &' &( !) %*+ ,#   )-   ภ  #  ' .- ภ '/) -    ภ 01 ,2/  /%  . .(#,3 ,2/4 ,1) 

 ,"56 (1 Retail Bond @ ATM for Micro Savers) 

 1) #',"5!)/ภ/ . ภ,2/ !, M!)# 3  ภภ1 1. 01 '/) - ,  1,000  ! . ภภ/ 10,000  ! 2.   ภ.-    ) -  / ! S . ภภ/ 5  3. ภ,) U ! ภ.-   1)  ATM . ภภ/ .-    ' ' 2  /! .  /.   ,2/4 ,1) 



,"56 ' &(   # .-  #  ภ! !)   ภ #' / & ภภ$. ' 

' ,2/4   !!

 !)&(  ภ .-  ,2/V  / ATM &1 $ !) 1 ' ภ,3 ,2/4 ,1) 

 ,"5'  $ Electronics !)#,2/  .   ภ"(ภ5 ภ.- 

,2/,1) 

 ,"5    / MX/ ( !) 2)   !)! - ภ#5* M ( !) 3) !  ,2/!)# ภ . U  U U   U.   / .  ) ภY '  ภ #    !2+ , --ภภ  ภ--

Fact & Figures &'(0::( â&#x20AC;&#x153;7 &'(--+(-Câ&#x20AC;? (-, : 3 I ( (ภ - :   3.75 ! I )&(:'O : 1,000 , )&(: 1 : 1,000,000 , [ '5O +- :  ATM ; $ <

<  F $ ภ.P ภ5+- (ภ - : !I  2 " 5O +- : 29 $+ â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 30 F% "$+ 2555 6


13

%(ก ,55O .. 2551 - 55 (.+*ก} -) Oก    7  กก% 



800,000

80,000

600,000

233,023

48,162 49,999

260,000

67,740

107,099

400,000

58,940 69,731 73,178 69,440 35,731 10,000 56,582

200,000

441,061

25,000

39,836 52,000 400,000

232,575 165,000

200,666

0

2551

2552

2553

2554

2555F

2551 2552  (-   (- 

2553 2554  (-   (- 

2555F  (- 

. :

,

165,000

62%

441,061

64%

232,575

35%

200,666

47%

400,000

54%

. V%   

56,582

21%

67,740

10%

25,000

4%

52,000

12%

..ก. FIDF 1

10,000

4%

49,999

7%

69,440

11%

39,836

9%

107,099

14%

..ก. FIDF 3

35,731

13%

48,162

7%

69,731

11%

73,178

17%

233,023

31%

80,000

12%

260,000

40%

58,940

14%

By source

..ก.  52 (TKK)  %(ก ,5

267,313

100% 686,962

100%

656,746

100% 424,620

100%

740,122

100%

7


13

 ภ ,  5O .. 2551 - 2555 (.+*%&(' &() Oภ    7  ภภ% 

  800,000

 ภ 100,000 80,000

%(ภ ,5

600,000

30,000

50,000

22,000

65,000 260,000

134,000

400,000

50,693

125,122 47,000 61,171 3

25,950

200,000

58,940

46,000 54,014 1,075

18,000

400,000

370,269 288,572

264,591

82,230

71,309 40,000

223,363

00 ภ.    -  (T-bill &( Bank Loan) &'(150,000  % '-.  %&'(&( +P

By product

124,254

2551

2552 

7 (LB) 7((-Z (SB) l TT) (P/N) l% ((ภ + (T-bill) (+) 7 ( (ภ - (- (FRB) ภ15ภ7% )-Z (Bank Loan) (+) 7((-Z:0 (SB_UP)

223,363 18,000 25,950 0

 %(ภ ,5

267,313

2552 (- 

84% 7% 10% 0%



370,269

54%

50,693 134,000 22,000 30,000 80,000

7% 20% 3% 4% 12%

686,962



288,572 3 61,171 0 47,000 260,000

82,230 124,254

267,313

100%

686,962

2555F 2554 (- 

33% 0% 7% 0% 5% 30%

656,746

7((-Z:0 (SB_UP) 7 (LB) 7) )-jk( (ILB) l TT) ( .% ' (Fixed P/N) Amortized Bond   ภ ,

2554 2553

(- 

100%

40,000

30,000

34,600

2553

2551

60,000

863,230



264,591 1,075 54,014 0 46,000 58,940

2555F (- 

46% 0% 9% 0% 8% 10%

424,620 10% 14%

100%

71,309 40,000 34,600

570,529



(- 

400,000

46%

125,122 65,000 50,000

14% 7% 6%

100,000

11%

740,122 12% 7% 6%

100%

60,000 40,000 30,000

870,122

7% 5% 3%

100%

8


10 ภ ภ    2555 (ภ 1 - 7) !" ภ  ! # !" ภ$%&  #!'()

1

2

3

4

5

-ภ ภภ/1ภ:

:(  .

ภ)&'(V- 

&'(( AEC 2015

}1 ภ} -

, *C

/ * Â&#x192;Z ภ

6

7

( %-ภC -

%.  %,%(/1 ,

2555

5.1 Inflation-Linked Bond ( ./7./TBMA/PD) 7.1 -ภ,%%      

KPI : Launched/Liquidity

2555

5.2 Benchmark Bond 3  ( ./7.)

2.1 CGIF ( ./ภ. ../ ภ/TBMA/PD) KPI : 1 Pilot Project

5.3 Amortized Bond ( .) 2555

2555

- Electronic & Internet ( .)

2555

- Post Office ( .)

2556

Retail Bond

5.5 , ภภÂ&#x192;Z Municipal Bond ( ./(.)

4.2 *C SBT :(Cภ

2555

5.6 ( Retail Bond ( ./ ภ/TBMA/PD)

( ภ/ %./%*./ภ. ../ ./TBMA) 2554 - 2558

9

 :  ภ 566ภ6%76$  ! # ) 89$ !%. ':.  ) TBMA (( 8  5 ภ. . 54)

Scriptless

KPI : Launched/Liquidity

4.1 -ภ*C 0  '% 5ภCapital Gain :(ภ,--+(- ' Resident .  Non-Resident

!%. can do/ cannot lead

( ./ %./7../ ภ. .../ ./TBMA)

2555

5.4 Retail Bond : ATM ( .)

KPI : Execution Rate 25%

!%. can do/ can lead

2554 - 2558

2554

2.2 NR ((ภBaht Bond ( ./7./ภ. ..)

( ภ++)

2555

2556

5.7 Securitization O  Infrastructure mortgage ( ภ/7./ภ. ../TBMA) 2554 - 2558 5.8  %1 Issuer .  Investor ( ภ/7./ภ. ../TBMA)

2554 - 2558


10 ภ ภ    2555 (ภ 8 - 10) !" ภ  ! # !" ภ$%&  #!'()

!%. can do/ can lead 8

9

10

     

ภ ภ%(Z)'

Cภ5 : -. %Z('O

!%. can do/ cannot lead

8.1   .ŕ¸

8.2   *% +(  (

 8.1.1 /1% ภ(Primary Dealers : PD) 8.1.2 Bond Switching 8.1.3 Bond Consolidation

8.2.1 Private repo and Short sell 8.2.2 ' issue size :( SOE V -) Re-open 8.2.3 /+(% -ภÂ&#x192;Z  NR , 0 ภ:D 8.2.4 Bond Futures and Interest rate future 8.2.5 DภC.ภ' *% +(  ( O     (ภ)

2555 - 2556

*%(ภ) 8.1.4 *C &'( %+)5+-((ภ   .ภ+/1((ภ- +)'% 8.1.5 ภ((ภCover Bond, Guarantee Bond 8.1.6 DภC.ภ5  Monoline 8.1.7  %1ภ((ภ,ภ1 2554 - 2558 8.1.8 ,ภภ  , 10

( ./ %./ ภ/ %./7./ ภ. ../  ./TBMA)

8.3 + --+(8.3.1 Bond Mart/ , Website/ )&'( website 7. 8.3.2 (  %1 2554 - 2558 (7./ภ. ../  ./TBMA)

2554 - 2556 ( %. /7. /ภ. ../TBMA)

 :  ภ 566ภ6%76$  ! # ) 89$ !%. ':.  ) TBMA (( 8  5 ภ. . 54)

8.4 V% & 8.4.1  OTC ETP 8.4.2 TFIIC 8.4.3 .Â&#x201E;(7,ภ

,ภ1 8.4.4 ภ,  '.:t.ภ+ ( (, %ภ ,:(ภ(,. ภ, [ . / ภ ภ(,  ' , ,ภ1) 8.4.5 7 ภ)O%.  +(   *% 2554 - 2558 ( ./ %./7./ภ. ../ ./TBMA)


&(() ภ    7  &'(ภ(-+-' -&

 !  ,+)++P :) %ภภpq  % Fภ.

02 265 8050 ! 5100

juk@mof.go.th

Q = "ภ = %ภ ,   F s

= %ภ%t       02 271 7999 ! 5812, 5806, 5802


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