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Wanstead Village Directory
Dashing Snow, through the
wind and rain
Recent weather patterns may be giving Santa cause for concern as he prepares for a potentially wet and windy flight across the UK. Local weather enthusiast Scott Whitehead offers his predictions
W
eather patterns over Europe this autumn have probably left Father Christmas wondering how on earth he is going to deliver all the presents on time. A warm Atlantic, coupled with an erratic jet stream, has left things very damp in Wanstead. Rainfall since the beginning of October has been 144% above average – the wettest for 10 years – while the mean temperature is over half a degree warmer than normal. It is all a far cry from the last few years, which were much colder and dryer. While it is possible that Wanstead may have already seen the first snowflakes of winter fall by early December, the weather patterns up to now have been far too mobile to suggest that any cold weather will last. With the jet stream close by, it is possible that the weather pattern that spawned the St Jude's day storm – which downed large mature lime trees on Christchurch Green at the end of October – will return. And if it does, it could stay locked in
until the end of the month. There will obviously be quieter spells, but patterns observed through the autumn, together with various forecasting models, suggest that mild, wet and windy weather is much more likely this Christmas day. The chaotic behaviour of the atmosphere makes forecasting detail beyond three days extremely difficult – very often forecasts just a few hours old can be wrong. As I write this, the CFS model, which forecasts up to nine months ahead, is suggesting this pattern for Christmas day: a complex triple-point low anchored south of Iceland, driving a very mild and windy south-westerly flow. With Wanstead being close to a high over Europe, there could be a lot of brightness, with any rain being showery and light – expect 10ºC and feeling balmy if the sun comes out. With this strong jet stream very close to the UK this Christmas it is likely that Santa is going to
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