east valley
Volume 3 Issue 4 Mesa, AZ
August 9, 2020
Experts: Area housing market like ‘the wild west’ BY PAUL MARYNIAK Tribune Executive Editor
T
IN THE BIZ
he Chandler Arizonan recently visited virtually with five experts to discuss the residential and commercial real estate market amid the COVID-19 pandemic. The experts included: Attorney Benjamin Gottlieb, of the real estate law firm MacQueen & Gottlieb; Kellie James, of Prime Lending Chandler; Lance Brace, of Bennett Property Management; Mary Nollenberger, a commercial real estate specialist for SVN/Desert Commercial Advisors and Angela Tauscher, a Realtor with West USA Real Estate Chandler. We still seem to be in a very strong seller’s market. How long do you think it will continue? Angela Tauscher: We’re putting consistently under contract every seven days 7,000 and 8,000 homes …and we’re closing between, I’d say, about 2,000 and 4,000. I think the highest I’ve seen honestly is 4,000 and I’ve been tracking it every single week since COVID started. ….As you know, a fulltime Realtor sells maybe 20 residential houses a year. I think our team has sold 30 in the last three months. It has been crazy out there. It’s literally the Wild West. Anything that we’re putting in under the $500,000 price point, we’re having anywhere from 10 to 30 showings in 24 hours. It doesn’t matter if it looks like a dog or if it’s the most beautiful home on the block. …More commonly, I’d say if it’s anything under probably $450,000, we’re getting 10 to 15 offers on every single house. We put in a cash offer for a $750,000 listing last week. We were outbid by a $775,000 Public Notices ............... page 3 © Copyright, 2020 East Valley Tribune
loan that waived the appraisal. “We have a million-dollar home right now that we had multiple offers on and they had tons of activity. So, it is challenging on the buyer’s side. We’re having buyers that are getting discouraged –especially if they need any concessions in any way shape or form, they just aren’t getting them.” Do you see this continuing indefinitely? Tauscher: I think we have a serious issue with our shortage of inventory. A lot of people are scared to put their homes on the market because they don’t want people in their homes. I think what happened is as people got a little more comfortable when things were opening up, they were more willing to maybe put some stuff on the market. But when the numbers spiked, now we’re seeing some people withdraw and get scared again. So, there’s a real challenge there. From what I’m seeing, people are stuck at home. They’re bored. There’s nothing better to do but talk about “what should we do?” “Should we add this gold-plated wall just because interest rates are so low?” “Maybe we should just sell and right now, then we don’t do refi.” We get this incredible interest rate and we get a step up for the exact same payment of what we were already working with. I think there’s a massive urge to move out there right now. We just don’t have the inventory, which is creating the stoppage. However, I think the whole (mortgage) forbearance thing that went out there early on, there was a lot of miscommunication and I think when those catch up – in 18 months or two years – I think we’re going (USPS 004-616) is published weekly
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to start seeing some situations with those people. Maybe Kellie can speak to this whole (mortgage) deferment thing.” Kellie James: I was on a market update call and 435,000 people that were taking advantage of forbearance caught their mortgages up in just the last week. …I did talk to clients that had money that chose a forbearance option even though they didn’t need to. My caution is, you’re going to have to catch up on these payments and so those that cannot, it’s really more giving the client time to sell their house. If you can’t afford the house, it’s not a free pass. It’s giving you time to sell it without damaging your credit if you are not going to get your income back. Then the question becomes where are you going to go. But we don’t think that interest rates are going to go up. For some reason, they’re not really following the normal trend. As the stock market goes up and gets improved, our interest rates should go up a little bit. That’s not happening, maybe because of all this liquidity the government is injecting into the market. Once we get a vaccine or some light at the end of the tunnel, that is when we expect that the rates will go up. But who knows when that will be? Lance, you’re on the property management side of things. How would you assess the current state of the rental apartment and housing market right now in the valley? Lance Brace: The prices are going up pretty quickly even through the last couple of months. A lot of my clients have opted to be more cautious, trying to keep their existing tenants in place. So, we haven’t been Subscriptions are $26 for 2 years, $14 for one year. Periodicals postage paid at Phoenix, AZ 85026.
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