Bulgarian oilseed farmers have faced significant challenges in recent years, including hot and dry weather affecting yields and reducing sunflower and rapeseed output
Plant & Technology
22 Global round-up of news OFI reports on some of the latest projects, technology and process news and developments around the world
Commodity Trading
24 Palm prices to fall
Global uncertainty, stagnating production and Indonesia’s B40 biodiesel blending mandate are all impacting the vegetable oil market, with a rise in palm oil output expected to reduce prices for the oil this year
27 Indian demand grows India is the world’s largest butter producer, accounting for more than half of global production, although most of this is consumed domestically as ghee or butter
29 Changing narratives
In the past 50 years, nutritional narratives have had an enormous impact on the food industry, as well as on the way fats and oils are produced and consumed
What future for SAF?
4 Trump signals that tariffs on China will come down
10 bp halts work on Spanish SAF project in Castellon
News 12 lulluemon to scale up bio-nylon apparel range
14 USA reconsidering port fees on Chinese vessels
16 Bayer appeals to Supreme Court over Roundup cases
of Events 17 International events listing
32 World statistical data
Photo: Adobe Sstock
Photo: Adobe Stock
Photo: Health Canada
Photo: Adobe Stock, AI generated
IN BRIEF
CHINA: Soyabean demand is projected to rise in 2025/26 due to a slight decline in production and increased imports, according to a 19 March report by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS).
China’s total domestic soyabean consumption in 2025/26 was forecast at 124.4M tonnes, up from 122M tonnes in 2024/25, Soyabean crushing was projected at 101M tonnes in 2025/26, up 2% from the estimated 99M tonnes the previous year as feed demand slowly recovered.
Meanwhile, protein meal use for feed was expected to rise modestly to 101.8M tonnes in 2025/26 from 101.6M tonnes estimated for 2024/25.
“Chinese consumer demand continues to shift from pork to poultry and aquatic products, which has slowed the growth in demand for soyabean meal,” the USDA said.
“At the same time, thanks to biofuel policies and weather conditions, smaller exportable supplies of sunflowerseed, rapeseed and palm oil have pushed up prices of edible oils, leading to more reliance on crushing soyabeans for soyabean oil in the Chinese market.”
China was expected to import 106M tonnes of soyabeans in 2025/26, up 1.9% from an estimated 104M tonnes in 2024/25, the ‘China – Oilseeds and Products Annual’ report said.
The USDA said it expected South American exports, based on record or near record production, would allow China to continue to exceed 100M tonnes of imports.
At 19.8M tonnes in 2025/26, China’s soyabean production was expected to show a small dip from 20.65M tonnes in the previous marketing year.
Trump signals that tariffs on China will come down
After imposing tariffs of up to 125% on China, US President Donald Trump signalled at a White House event on 22 April that tariffs on goods from China "will come down substantially".
“We’re going to be setting the deal, and it will be a fair deal for everybody … It will come down substantially. But it won’t be zero,” Trump was quoted as saying in a report by The Independent on 23 April.
Trump is considering reducing tariffs on Chinese goods to between 50-65%, according to a 23 April Wall Street Journal report.
Meanwhile, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said while Beijing was willing to fight to the end, "the door is wide open" for negotiations, a 23 April China Daily report quoted him as saying.
The Trump administration launched its “reciprocal” tariff plan on about 90 US trade partners on 2 April, including a baseline 10% tariff on trade partners, as well as 25% tariffs on specific imported vehicles and auto parts.
After insisting for days that he would hold firm on his trade strategy, Trump then
announced on 9 April that all countries that had not retaliated against US tariffs would receive a 90-day reprieve until July but would still face a blanket US tariff of 10%, The Guardian wrote the same day.
However, Trump said he would raise US tariffs on Chinese exports to 125% effective immediately. In response, China increased duties on imports of US goods from 84% to 125% and also introduced restrictions on exports of rare earth materials to the USA.
The reciprocal tariffs between the USA and China have impacted global markets disrupted supply chains and prompted fears of recession.
Meanwhile, the American
Soybean Association (ASA) said soyabean farmers were concerned about the impact of the continued escalation of tariffs with China.
China had not placed an order for US corn and soyabeans since 16 January, four days before Trump’s inauguration, World Grain wrote on 21 April.
In 2024, China imported more than 27M tonnes of soyabeans from the USA, worth around US$12.8bn, according to the US Department of Agriculture.
China was the third-ranked US trading partner in 2024 with US$582bn in two-way international commerce, according to a 23 April report by Freight Waves.
Canada files WTO action against China
The Canadian government has filed a dispute against China at the World Trade Organization (WTO) over Beijing’s move to impose additional import duties on its agricultural and fishery products.
On 8 March, China announced it would apply a 100% tariff on rapeseed oil, peas and oil cakes for animal feed, while aquatic products and pork faced a 25% levy, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) wrote on 25 March.
Canada is one of the world’s leading canola producers and China has historically been one of its largest importers, according to the SCMP report.
Canadian industry leaders said they would be hit hard by the new tariffs, which followed a Beijing investigation into levies imposed by Ottawa on Chinese goods last year.
Canada introduced 100% tariffs on Chinese electric cars in August, matching US measures imposed in a bid to halt the import of Chinese state-subsidised cars into North America, the SCMP wrote. At the same time, the Canadian government also announced a surcharge on imports of steel and aluminium products from China.
Beijing’s commerce ministry reportedly said an investigation into these measures found that Canadian policies “disrupted the normal trade order and harmed the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises”.
After complaints are brought before the WTO, consultations are initiated between involved parties. If no agreement is reached, the complainant can request a special panel, made up of three to five experts, to be set up.
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Indonesia arrests judges related to palm oil
Indonesian authorities have arrested three judges who cleared three palm oil companies of alleged corruption in obtaining export permits, Reuters wrote on 14 April.
In March, a court had acquitted the three firms – Wilmar Group, Musim Mas Group and North Sumatra-based Permata Hijau Group – of misconduct charges in obtaining export permits in 2022, the report said.
The three judges who made the ruling were arrested on 13 April, a spokesperson for the Attorney-General’s Office, Harli Siregar, told Reuters. The chief judge of
IN BRIEF
WORLD: Global fish oil output in January 2025 was up 71% year-on-year mainly due to a surge in Peruvian output, according to marine ingredients organisation IFFO.
Other regions also reported increased fish oil production compared to the same period the previous year, with the exception of North European countries, IFFO said on 18 March.
The data was based on statistics shared by IFFO members in Chile, Denmark, Faroe Islands, Iceland, Ivory Coast, Mauritius, Norway, the UK, the USA, Peru, South Africa and Spain, accounting for 40% of global fishmeal production and 50% of fish oil output.
According to the IFFO website, the production of fish meal and fish oil has been relatively stable for the last 10 years, at approximately 5M tonnes of fish meal, and 1M tonnes of fish oil. Both products came from forage fish and by-products (resulting from fish processing that would otherwise be discarded).
Scandinavia accounted for 14% of fish oil production between 2013-2023, followed by Vietnam (13%), Chile and Peru at 11% each, China and USA at 7% each.
Aquafeed accounted for more than 60% of fish oil consumption in 2023.
South Jakarta district court, Muhammad Arif Nuryanta, was also arrrested on 12 April.
Nuryanta was allegedly paid IDR60bn rupiah (US$3.6bn) to arrange for a favourable verdict, Siregar was quoted as saying, adding that US$1.07M was then allegedly paid to the three other judges.
Nuryanta did not hear the case directlyhe was the deputy chief of the court when the verdict was announced, the report said.
A court clerk and two lawyers had also been apprehended along with Nuryanta.
Siregar said the Attorney-General’s Of-
fice had filed an appeal against the court’s March acquittal of the companies.
At the time of the report, Wilmar Group, Musim Mas Group and Permata Hijau Group had not responded to a request for comments and it was not clear if the three companies would face any charges.
In 2022, Indonesia – which accounts for about 60% of global palm oil supply –imposed severe export measures, including a three-week ban on palm oil shipments, in a bid to bring down surging prices of local cooking oil, Reuters wrote.
Indonesian palm oil production set to rise
Indonesian palm oil production is projected to rise by 3% to 47M tonnes in the 2025/26 season due to favourable weather and increased fertiliser use, according to a US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) report.
The 14 April report said the El Niño and Indian Ocean Dipole weather phenomena were not expected to have a significant impact, resulting in normal dry season weather patterns in Indonesia. Additionally, fertiliser applications were expected to rise due to fertiliser costs falling by 14%-59% between 2022 and February 2025, the USDA said. Indonesian palm oil con-
sumption was set to grow slightly, reaching 22.6M tonnes in 2025/26 due to increased demand in local industrial and food sectors. In particular, the country’s B40 biodiesel blending mandate, was forecast to drive industrial palm oil
consumption to 14.9M tonnes in the coming marketing year.
The FSA said Indonesia was considering a B50 mandate but achieving that target would require increasing the country’s biodiesel production capacity, currently at 19.7bn litres.
Nibulon calls for Ukraine port reopenings
Leading Ukrainian agribusiness Nibulon has made an international appeal for the opening of Mykolaiv and Kherson ports to be a key element of any deal to end the war between Russia and Ukraine.
Before Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, the ports of Mykolaiv and Kherson were used to transport a significant portion of Ukrainian agricultural exports, particularly to countries most dependent on Ukrainian grain, the company said on 28 March. The blockade of the ports had paralysed maritime trade in southern Ukraine, blocking over 100 ships, including foreign vessels, and prevented recovery in regional areas.
With a landbank of over 76,000ha, Nibulon is one of Ukraine’s largest grain and oilseed growers, traders and processors and is active in wheat, corn, barley, sunflower, soyabean and rapeseed. It also runs its own fleet, has a total storage capacity of 2.25M tonnes and operates a network of 27 trans-shipment terminals and
grain and oilseeds complexes in the country. Meanwhile, Russian president Vladimir Putin announced a three-day ceasefire on 28 April to mark the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Soviet Union and its allies in World War Two, Reuters reported on the same day.
The ceasefire from 8-9 May was the second unilateral truce announced by Putin following a 30-hour Easter ceasefire in which both sides accused the other of violating many times.
Earlier in March, Russia and Ukraine had also agreed to a ceasefire in the Black Sea in separate deals with the USA after three days of peace talks in Saudi Arabia, the BBC reported on 25 March.
However, shortly after the agreements were announced, Russia said the naval ceasefire would only come into force after sanctions were lifted on Russian banks, producers and exporters involved in international food and fertiliser trades, the BBC wrote.
Photo:Adobe Stock
lululemon scales up bio-nylon apparel range
Canadian sports clothing company lululemon is partnering with US biotechnology developer ZymoChem to scale up production of bio-based nylon for its clothing.
As part of the initial stages of the partnership, the companies had been working together to create a bio-based version of adipic acid, one of the key building blocks of nylon 6,6 traditionally produced from petroleum, lululemon said on 19 March.
IN BRIEF
INDONESIA: A new palm oil-based batik wax has been launched by a consortium of palm oil stakeholders using hydrogenated palm stearin (HPS) as a raw material.
The Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) said on 19 February that it had been working in collaboration with Forum Pengembangan Kampoeng Batik Laweyan (FPKBL) to create a batik formula using sustainable palm oil derivatives since 2022.
The HPS used in the batik was supplied by the Apical group. Other organisations in the project are conservation group WWF-Indonesia; Universitas Trisakti; consulting firm Daemeter; and testing, inspection and certification company Control Union.
KENYA: The International Sustainability and Carbon Certification (ISCC) organisation said on 18 February that it had awarded its first EU low indirect land-use change (ILUC) certificate to Italian energy firm Eni‘s Kenyan castor oil supplier, Janari Farms. Eni uses the castor oil as an agri-feedstock in biofuel production.
The crop was grown on severely degraded land characterised by poor soil fertility, erosion and limited agricultural productivity, making the land marginally suitable or economically unsuitable for food crops, the ISCC said.
Nylon 6,6 is used in many of lululemon’s products including its Align and Wunder Train leggings.
lululemon said the next phase of the partnership would focus on scaling ZymoChem’s technologies to support the commercialisation of the bio-based nylon.
ZymoChem uses microbial fermentation to convert sugar-derived raw materials into chemical building blocks for producing nylon and other bio-based polymers.
“ZymoChem’s technology is capable of producing a bio-based material to create sustainable nylon 6,6 that provides the same look, feel and quality expected from our … products,” Yogendra Dandapure, vice president, Raw Materials Innovation, at lululemon, said.
“By continuing to expand our partnerships …, we’re creating multiple pathways to transition to sustainable materials across our product portfolio.”
BASF publishes 3rd sustainability report
A total of 98.1% of the palm kernel oil (PKO) that Germany chemical giant BASF used in 2024 was certified by the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO), according to the third edition of the firm’s care chemicals division Responsible Sourcing Report (RSR).
Almost 97% of the division’s total palm oil exposure of 390,591 tonnes was traceable to the oil mill level, the report published on 31 March said. “We source 81.7% of our traceable [palm oil] raw material from 10 provinces in Indonesia and Malaysia and have relationships with a total of 44 provinces in the two countries, corresponding to 92% of our traceable raw material supply,” BASF said. In addition, the company said it had again achieved full traceability for certified sustainable palm kernel oil (CSPKO) sourced from 380 RSPO-certified oil mills.
BASF said current forecasts for the CSPKO market indicated the sector would remain tight until 2030. “Sustained demand exceeds supply capacity. In addition, the upcoming European Deforestation Regulation is expected to exacerbate existing supply constraints”, which was likely to result in a shortage of materials suitable for supply to the European market.
The RSR report provides an update on the care chemicals division’s progress in sustainable sourcing and production of renewable based materials in 2024.
BASF said it continued to source Rainforest Alliance (RA) certified coconut oil, sourcing 40% of its coconut oil production from the Philip-
pines and 29% from Indonesia.
In 2024, approximately 100,000 tonnes of certified castor oil seeds had been produced as part of BASF’s Pragati programme, a significant increase over the previous year’s total of 74,500 tonnes. Since the start of the programme, 8,000 farmers had been certified with more than 9,000ha farmed to castor, the RSR report said.
IFF and Kemira form bio-materials joint venture
International Flavors & Fragrances Inc (IFF), USA, announced on 27 March that it had formed a joint venture with Finnish chemical firm Kemira Oyj to produce renewable bio-based materials on a commercial scale.
With an investment of about US$148M, the Alpha Bio joint venture facility would start production in late 2027, converting up to 44,000 tonnes of plant sugars into bioproducts, including high-performance biopolymers for use in various applications, such as home and per-
sonal care and industrial solutions. Alpha Bio’s production would use IFF’s designed enzymatic biomaterial (DEB) platform technology, integrated at the IFF biorefinery in Kotka, Finland.
Kemira CEO Antti Salminen said it had been collaborating with IFF since 2020 using the DEB platform technology, which utilised enzymes to convert plant-based sugars into biopolymers, which would be used exclusively by itself and IFF in key markets, including paper and board packaging, paper coatings, and water treatment.
Photo: BASF
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BIOTECH NEWS
IN BRIEF
USA: Agricultural biotech company BioLumic has launched light-activated commercial seed traits for inbred corn, AgNewsWire reported on 6 March.
The US and New Zealand-based company launched its Trait Activation System at Gro Alliance’s US seed production facility in Cuba City, Wisconsin, the report said.
BioLumic’s light-based Genetic Expression Trait (xTrait) technology uses ultraviolet (UV) light to regulate genetic expression, without genetic modification.
“This is a major step forward for seed companies seeking a new category of traits – traits that enhance natural genetic expression rather than altering the genome,” BioLumic CEO Steve Sibulkin said. “We’re delivering a … new way to programme crop traits and accelerate breeding cycles.”
Following third-party field validation and demonstration of trans-generational trait inheritance to hybrid progeny, BioLumic light-activated traits were now being integrated into a portfolio of partner inbred corn lines.
AgNewsWire wrote thatmultiple seed companies had licensed the technology, with commercial hybrid traits anticipated for the 2026 planting season.
BioLumic also had plans to expand the xTrait Platform to rice, rye grass and soyabeans through funded partnerships, the report said.
Bayer appeals to Supreme Court over Roundup cases
German chemicals giant Bayer has asked the US Supreme Court to intervene in its long-running legal dispute over its weedkiller Roundup, The Guardian wrote on 6 April, citing an Agence France-Presse ( AFP ) report.
It was the third time Bayer had appealed to the USA’s leading court, and the first since Bill Anderson became CEO in 2023, the report said.
The company has faced lawsuits linked to Roundup since it acquired the brand from US agrochemical group Monsanto in 2018. Claimants allege that Roundup causes non-Hodgkin lymphoma cancer but Bayer says scientific studies and regulatory approvals have shown that its glyphosate-based herbicide is safe.
The company’s latest bid came days after the supreme court of Missouri state refused to review a ruling against Bayer, opening the way to an appeal at the federal level, the group was
quoted as saying. In a court filing, Bayer said the federally-approved label for Roundup included no warning of cancer, therefore prohibiting failure-to-warn lawsuits brought under state laws, the Associated Press (AP) wrote on 7 April.
Bayer was quoted as saying that “tens of thousands” of claims were waiting to be heard in US courts and that a ruling in its favour could “largely curtail this litigation”.
To date, Bayer had spent more than US$10bn settling Roundup suits, The Guardian wrote. It has set aside US$16bn to settle further cases, according to AP
x A jury in Georgia state has ordered Bayer to pay US$2.1bn to a plaintiff who claimed Roundup caused his cancer, one of the largest legal settlements related to the product, a 22 March Bangkok Post report said, citing a Reuters article. Bayer said it would be appealing the verdict.
Mexico bans domestic GM corn cultivation
The Mexican government has banned the domestic cultivation of genetically modified (GM) corn, according to a 21 March US Department of Agriculture (USDA) report.
Introduced on 17 March, the decision by Mexico's lower house of Congress defines GM corn as “produced with techniques that overcome the natural barriers of reproduction or recombination, such as transgenics”, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) report said.
The ruling requires “any other use” of such corn to be evaluated “to be free of threats to the biosafety, health and biocultural heritage of Mexico and its population”.
While a de facto ban on
GE corn planting had been in place since 2013 due to a court ruling, and effective prohibitions had existed since 1998, the ruling codified these restrictions by amending Articles 4 and 27 of the constitution, the report said.
However, the broad application of the term “use” within
the amendment did not specify if the restrictions applied beyond cultivation, to include GM corn grain imported for food, feed or processing uses, the USDA said.
The ruling's aim was to preserve native corn varieties, protect biodiversity and ensure food sovereignty.
Kenya's Court of Appeal issues ruling against GE products
Kenya's Court of Appeal has put a hold on the trade and cultivation of genetically engineered (GE) products until an appeal filed by the Kenya Peasants League (KPL) is given a full hearing later this year, a 21 March US Department of Agriculture (USDA) report says.
The 7 March injunction bans the import or commercialisation of GE crops, seeds or food in Kenya and also suspends any asso-
ciated executive orders on GE products.
The appeal by the KPL and 18 other parties challenged the government’s removal of a GE products ban in November 2022, which opened Kenya to imports of GE products.
“GMOs [genetically modified organisms] are not the solution to food insecurity in our country, said KPL represenative David Otieno. "Instead, they deepen dependency
on multinational agribusinesses, threaten biodiversity and compromise farmers’ ability to control their food systems.”
In its ruling, the Court of Appeal said the public interest was best served by maintaining the GE ban while the legal and policy questions surrounding GMOs were fully addressed. The case would proceed to a full hearing at the Court of Appeal between May-August 2025, the USDA said.
Calyxt says seedless hemp offered improved yields and quality
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BULGARIA
to the expansion of crushing facilities for biodiesel, the USDA report said.
According to MinAg data, rapeseed crushing as of the middle of February increased sharply to 250,000 tonnes, 53% more than the same period the previous year and more than the total 2023/24 crushing estimate of 230,000 tonnes.
Most of the rapeseed crushed was sourced from imports. MinAg data showed 2024/25 imports of rapeseed as of midFebruary totalled 215,000 tonnes, 43% more than imports in the corresponding period the previous year.
Industry sources estimate total 2024/25 imports to exceed 300,000 tonnes with most shipments expected from non-EU origins, mainly from Canada.
Sunflower crushing
In the first four months of the marketing year, sunflowerseed crushing rose due to lower sunflowerseed prices and positive margins.
With limited domestic availability of sunflowerseeds, demand for imports was strong, the USDA report said.
Although crushing companies made every effort to source competitively-priced sunflowerseeds both from domestic producers and from imports, trade had been challenging due to the regional Black Sea and EU deficit, the USDA said.
According to MinAg data, sunflowerseed crushing as of the middle of February declined by 15% from the previous year to 723,000 tonnes.
As of mid-February, sunflowerseed imports totalled 400,000 tonnes, 80% higher than imports in the corresponding period the previous year.
“There is only limited potential for further growth in imports due to depleting global stocks. Instead, sunflowerseed crushers will likely switch to rapeseed in the second half of the marketing year,” the USDA said.
If market dynamics stimulate further switching from sunflowerseed to rapeseed
crushing, this could lead to unusually high ending stocks of sunflowerseeds at the farm level, reaching some 400,000 tonnes.
Transport and logistics
Located in Southeast Europe, Bulgaria is bordered by the Black Sea, Romania to the north, Serbia and North Macedonia to the west, and Greece and Turkey to the south.
Although Constanta in neighbouring Romania is the most important port in the Black Sea region of Danube countries, Bulgaria itself has two smaller ports –Varna and Burgas.
Located on the northern coast of the Black Sea approximately 470km from Bulgaria’s capital Sofia, the Port of Varna is the country’s largest port complex and has the capacity to accommodate large vessels, including container ships and bulk carriers. It handles a range of commodities including grain exports.
The country’s second largest port, the Port of Burgas, is located on the southern coast of the Black Sea about 130km from Varna, and handles inbound and outbound bulk commodities and marine products.
Bulgaria exports sunflower oil mainly by sea through ports such as Varna and Burgas, to various countries, including Egypt, Turkey, China and Morocco, Platonova says. “These ports handle a significant part of the country’s agricultural exports. About 64% of agricultural goods are exported through the port of Varna and another 34% through the port of Burgas.
“The remaining 2% goes to other river ports on the Danube – Vidin, Selistra and Ruse,” she adds.
Products are also transported by rail and road to neighbouring countries and to ports for international shipments.
“When exporting to neighbouring Greece or Turkey, both important trading partners for Bulgaria, shipments can be trucked across the borders rather than sent by sea,” Martielli says.
Around 40% of the country’s sunflower oil is exported to the EU with the
Source: Eurostat as of 23 February, 2025
remaining 60% shipped to other global destinations, he explains.
Sunflowerseeds are exported mainly to the EU, with 60% of shipments going to EU-27 countries, he adds.
Infrastructure improvements
In the 2023/24 season, Bulgaria significantly improved its export logistics capabilities by increasing investment in infrastructure, Platonova says.
Northern Bulgaria’s grain and bulk port operations are also set for a €50M (US$54.6M) boost from a European Investment Bank (EIB) loan to help finance a modern grain storage and transportation terminal at the Port of Varna, according to a World Grain report.
The project would support food safety, promote less carbon intensive maritime transport and boost economic growth in the region by providing improved access to the export market for local agricultural producers, the 28 June report said.
EIB signed the agreement with Logistic Centre Varna EAD, part of the Buildcom Group, to co-finance the grain terminal, World Grain wrote.
Buildcom Group – Bulgaria’s largest privately-held sunflower oil producer and leading grain trader – will integrate its logistics business and optimise grain and bulk port operations in the Varna area, according to the report.
Due to become operational in the second quarter of 2026, the new grain terminal would comprise a new quay, silo and other storage facilities alongside a new railway and road access, the report said.
“The new terminal will provide local grain producers with … access to the liquid international markets,” Julian Stefanov, CEO of Logistic Centre Varna EAD, was quoted as saying. “It will be an important gateway for Bulgarian grain exports and will increase the country’s competitiveness in maritime transportation.”
Future outlook
Despite current challenges, there are signs of recovery in the Bulgarian oilseed sector in 2025/26, with a 3% increase in rapeseed planted area. However, recovery depends on favourable weather conditions.
“There is potential for growth in the Bulgarian oilseed sector but climate can be a challenge, as we have seen, and weather factors are having more and more impact on yields as in the last two years with the severe drought,” Martielli says.
Price fluctuations on the world market and competition from other large producers also pose ongoing challenges, according to Platonova. ● Gill Langham is OFI’s assistant editor
Figure 1: Bulgaria total oilseed production, (‘000 tonnes)
COMMODITY TRADING
Palm prices to fall
Global uncertainty, stagnating production and Indonesia’s B40 biodiesel blending mandate are all impacting the palm and vegetable oil markets, with a rise in palm oil output expected to reduce prices for the oil this year Gill Langham
A combination of stagnating production and rising demand has led to palm oil trading at a premium to other vegetable oils but increased output is expected to reduce prices for the commodity this year, according to analysts at Bursa Malaysia’s Palm & Lauric Oils Price Outlook Conference & Exhibition (POC2025).
Other factors impacting the palm oil industry included the introduction of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) this December and the extent to which Indonesia would enforce fulfilment of its mandatory mix of palm oil in biodiesel to 40% (B40), as it looked towards introducing a 50% blend in 2026, leading to higher volumes of palm oil being diverted to local supply rather than exports.
Full implementation of Indonesia’s B40 mandate would need additional feedstock supply of around 1.7M tonnes, Dr Mohamad Fadhil Hasan, head of the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI)’s Foreign Affairs division told delegates at the event, held on 24-26 February in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.
Drop in exports
A combination of Indonesia’s rising biodiesel consumption, expansion of its B40 programme and stagnant global production had led to lower exports, delegates heard.
There had been an “alarming” decline in
palm oil exports since 2019, said Thomas Mielke, executive director of Oil World.
With an export volume of 55.4M tonnes, palm oil accounted for 56% of world vegetable oil exports in Oct/Sept 2019/20. However, exports plummeted to 48.6M tonnes in 2023/24, down almost 7M tonnes from their peak, Mielke said. They continued to decline in October/December 2024 and in early 2025, he added.
Weaker demand from main markets, such as China and India, and competition from other oils – including soyabean oil –had also impacted the export sector.
In addition, China’s growing selfreliance on grain production and adoption of biotechnology to improve domestic output had seen it shift away from being a significant importer, Emily French, founder and CEO of Global Protein, told delegates.
Global uncertainty
Speaking at the conference, Godrej International director Dorab Mistry said: “We meet again under a Trump presidency. Price forecasting is again extremely difficult due to the three ‘T’s’ – Trump, trade wars and tariffs.”
Despite the uncertainty, there was a consensus among speakers that palm oil prices would decline this year due to increased production.
Mistry said he expected palm oil to trade between MYR3,600-4,200 (US$811-947)/ tonne between April-November 2025. According to Glenauk Economics managing director Julian McGill, prices would weaken in the first half of this year to reach MYR4,000-4,200 (US$902-947) by July, after which they would rebound.
Resilient sector
In the face of geopolitical factors and other pressures, Malaysia’s agriculture remained
resilient in 2024, Bursa Malaysia chairman Abdul Wahid Omar said. In the first three quarters of 2024, the sector recorded 4.3% growth, largely driven by the strong performance of the palm oil sector, which grew by 10.4% due to higher fresh fruit bunches (FFB) production and improved crude palm oil (CPO) yields.
The outlook for Malaysia’s palm oil industry remained optimistic with growth supported by biodiesel mandates in many nations, rising edible oil consumption, improved palm oil price projections and better labour conditions, he said. However, the sector still faced significant challenges.
“Key risks include competition from other vegetable oils, weaker demand from main markets such as China and India, and unpredictable weather conditions … which could all impact palm oil trade.”
Malaysia’s Minister of Plantation and Commodities Johari Abdul Ghani agreed that the palm oil sector had shown “resilience” in 2024.
“Palm oil prices consistently traded at a premium against alternatives such as soyabean and sunflower oils, buoyed by global supply constraints, reduced exports from Indonesia, and adverse weather conditions in Malaysia. Robust demand for biodiesel, driven by Indonesian mandates, further strengthened the market.”
On the postponement of the EUDR regulation to 30 December, Abdul Ghani said while large companies were wellpositioned to comply with the regulations, it would provide plantation operators, smallholders and businesses along the supply chain with more time to prepare for due diligence requirements.
Growth slows
Despite the positive outlook for 2025, delegates heard that global palm oil
Photo: Bursa Malaysia
Derivatives
Berhad
Indian demand grows
India is the world’s largest butter producer, accounting for more than half of global production, although most of this is consumed domestically as ghee or butter
Raghavendra Verma
Indian butter manufacturers are adopting innovative technologies and novel processes to overcome raw material deficiencies and meet growing demand generated by rising prosperity in the country of 1.4bn people.
With a GDP projected to rise 6.6% this year, India is easily the world’s largest butter producer. Its 2024 butter production is estimated at 6.95M tonnes, compared with 6.75M tonnes in 2023, accounting for 58.1% of global production, according to the US Department of Agriculture.
However, seasonally fluctuating milk
production and adulteration in widely used clarified butter (ghee) still poses challenges, with the Indian dairy industry investing in technical solutions as a result.
“Major Indian dairies are using continuous butter-making machines with chilling kneaders, near infrared spectroscopy, vacuum treatment and addition of hydrogen and nitrogen gas,” Dr Ghanshiam Singh Rajorhia, former principal scientist at the National Dairy Research Institute, Karnal, Haryana, told OFI.
“This not only enhances the microbial and chemical stability of butter, but also increases its spreadability and shelf life.”
Spreadability is especially important in India, where dairies produce a significant proportion of butter from buffalo milk.
A 2019 livestock census by India’s Department of Animal Husbandry and Dairying noted how Indian farms supported 193.46M cattle and 109.85M buffalos in producing 239.3M tonnes of milk (also the world’s largest output), according to India’s National Dairy Development Board (NDDB) 2023/24 figures.
Source: US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service
The texture of Indian butter is slightly rougher and firmer than the butter produced in most other countries, where the butter is made from cow’s milk, explains Dr Satish Kulkarni, former principal scientist of the National Dairy Research Institute.
“Most of the milk available to Indian dairies is a mix of cow and buffalo,” he told OFI. “Buffalo milk has a higher proportion of saturated fats responsible for the hardness.”
Food Safety and Standards Authority of India (FSSAI) regulations require butter sold in India to be sold under two categories: Table butter and white/cooking butter. Table butter must have a minimum of 80% fat, while the fat content for white/cooking butter is 76%.
Salt content is also regulated – table butter can have up to 3% salt but the actual sodium content in major Indian butter brands ranges from 0.85-1.05%.
“It is being brought down for health reasons,” Kuldeep Sharma, founder of Uttar Pradesh-based dairy consultancy Suruchi Consultants, told OFI.
Table butter
Amul, the brand of India’s largest dairy co-operative Gujarat Cooperative Milk Marketing Federation (GCMMF), accounts for 85% of the country’s table butter sales. In 2024, this segment had total sales of INR90.4bn (US$1.05bn), according to the ‘Table Butter Market in India by Sector and Region 2025-2033’ report by Uttar Pradesh-based market research company IMARC Group.
The report says that India’s table butter sales are expected to grow annually at 16.01% until 2033.
Amul’s hold on the butter market may face tough competition in the future from
Photo: Adobe Stock
Figure 1: World butter production, 2024
BUTTER/GHEE
regional brands such as Mother Dairy, Vita, Verka, Saras, Sudha, Nandani and Britannia, according to Dr Rajorhia. Most of these brands belong to other milk cooperatives.
In India, butter with a low fat content cannot be marketed as ‘butter’. These products are given different brand names such as Amul Lite, which has a 60% fat content and is called ‘milk fat spread’. Marketed to health-conscious customers and with a shelf life of nine months, it is priced at INR48 (US$0.56) for a 100g pack, compared to INR60 (US$0.70) for a similar pack of butter with 80% fat.
“Over a period of time, the fat content may be reduced to satisfy health concerns over higher calories,” says Dr Kulkarni.
Flavoured butter, such as Amul Garlic & Herbs Buttery Spread, is also available, but “it has a very niche and small market,” Dr Rupinder Singh Sodhi, president of the Indian Dairy Association, told OFI.
Ghee
The use of table butter itself is limited largely to urban consumers, says Sharma. “In rural areas, butter is mostly prepared to make ghee and only a small amount is consumed in raw form,” he says.
“Ghee is considered to be healthier than vegetable oil [in India] and general prosperity is increasing demand for it,” says Dr Sodhi.
Heating butter to obtain ghee removes milk solids and water, reducing weight by 25%. According to FSSAI regulations, ghee must comprise 99.5% fat.
Indeed, ghee constitutes 8% of the total dairy product consumption in India, while the share of butter is only 3%, according to a 2019 NDDB report, ‘Study on Demand of Milk and Milk Products in India’.
Demand for ghee rises sharply during festivals for preparing traditional sweets, cooking hot dishes and for topping rotis (Indian flat breads), notes Sharma.
In 2024, annual ghee sales were worth INR3.48tr (US$40.49bn), projected to rise to INR7.17tr (US$83.47bn) by 2033, representing an annual growth rate of 8.4%, according to a February 2025 IMARC report ‘Ghee Market in India Report by Type (Cow Ghee, Desi Ghee), Retail and Institutional Sales, and Region, 2024-2032’.
“Escalating health consciousness, surging demand for natural and organic products, cultural and traditional uses, increasing usage for culinary purposes, growth in the dairy industry, and rising disposable incomes are some of the key factors influencing the market growth,” the report says.
With the availability of milk in every village, the ghee market is huge and highly
fragmented, with numerous local brands, says Sharma. “I wouldn’t be surprised if there are 5,000 brands of ghee available in the country,” he says, adding “there are also shopkeepers selling loose unbranded ghee”.
With such low entry barriers in the ghee market, adulteration is rampant. “There is a huge market for ghee adulterated with palm oil, coconut oil and hydrogenated fat,” says Sharma.
“People in the HoReCa (hotel, restaurant and catering) industry have a general tendency to buy such ghee [as it is cheaper],” he says.
According to Dr Sodhi, adulteration is the biggest challenge for the Indian dairy fat industry overall. “Some ghee manufacturers are able to add certain chemicals to blend with vegetable oils that even the food authorities are not able to detect,” he says.
While gas chromatography testing machines detecting such adulteration are becoming more affordable, they still cost about US$20,000 and require trained labour to operate, says Dr Sodhi.
This adulteration can help big brands, as consumers trust their product quality, encouraging them to overlook prices that are much higher than those of small brands, says Dr Sodhi.
For instance, Nestlé, Amul, Mother Dairy, Patanjali, Aashirvaad, Gowardhan and Madhusudan are major ghee brands in India which are sold in one litre/900g packs for around INR600 (US$7). The purity of these products are emphasised and the packs are also widely sold among Indians overseas.
Trade
India’s Ministry of Commerce and Industry says US$254.2M’s worth of Indian butter and ghee was exported between April and December 2024, while imports totalled just US$1.57M.
A major reason for the low imports is
the 40% import duty on butter and 60% duty on skimmed milk, imposed to protect the livelihood of India’s 80M dairy farming families.
Despite a strong push from the European Union (EU) and Australia during their ongoing free trade negotiations, India has refused to compromise on these duties.
Sodhi says butter prices in India are still about 15–20% lower than imports, even disregarding the duty.
Fat content, sustainability issues
In addition to low labour and production costs, Indian butter manufacturers also benefit from buffalo milk’s fat content exceeding 7%, compared to about 3.5% in cow’s milk, as manufacturers process less milk to extract more butter.
“India is very fortunate to have 50% of its milk coming from buffalos,” says Dr Sodhi, who predicts a further increase in this share.
“India’s butter demand is rising much faster than for skimmed milk, and buffalo milk can help dairies to resolve this issue.”
That said, Indian dairies must still wrestle with seasonal variations in milk supplies as hot summers stress animals, especially buffaloes, causing their milk production to fall by 20%-30%, says Dr Sodhi. To balance the supply, surplus milk in winter is converted into butter and milk powder, which is then used in summer for making various dairy products including recombined milk, he says.
Another challenge is sustainability as reporting requirements become mandatory for major companies, including for supply chains and in regions and countries such as the EU, Brazil and Canada.
India’s dairy industry has an environmental impact, although major producers are trying to clean up.
According to the AmulFed Dairy Sustainability Report, 2023-24, GCMMF reduced water consumption when manufacturing one tonne of butter from 330 litres in 2021 to 270 litres in 2024.
“We seek to source raw material from suppliers engaged in environmentallyfriendly work practices, energy efficient operations and using more renewable energy,” says the company.
These kinds of technological advances are promoting optimism in India’s butter sector.
“With developed supply chains and a growing market, the future for the [Indian] butter and ghee industry remains very bright,” says Dr Rajorhia. ● New Delhi-based Raghavendra Verma writes for International News Service (INS), UK
Amul is India’s largest butter brand
Photo: Adobe Stock
Changing narratives
Over the past 50 years, the focus of nutritional narratives has shifted away from individual nutrients to the extent of food processing, the use of artificial ingredients and agri-food systems. These shifts have significantly impacted the fats and oils industry
Eduardo Dubinsky
The nutritional quality of a food is one of the most important aspects in its development. It is one of the critieria that we use to choose which foods to eat, along with taste and cost.
In the last 50 years, three different nutritional narratives have developed which have had an enormous impact on the food industry, impacting our diets and shaping the guidelines and regulations related to fats in foods. They consider:
• Nutrients as the basis of dietary recommendations.
• The degree of processing and the use of industrial ingredients and inputs as the main criteria for selecting an adequate diet.
• The crisis of the current global agri-food system and the need for urgent changes in the diet for human and planetary health.
The nutrients narrative
The dominant nutrient or ‘nutritionism’ narrative around the mid-20th century was that all fats are responsible for cardiovascular disease (CVD). According to this narrative, the nutritional quality of all fats and oils is determined by their composition of fatty acids (saturated, monounsaturated, polyunsaturated, long-chain omega 3 and trans) and by their animal origin (presence of harmful cholesterol) or vegetable origin (presence of beneficial phytosterols).
Animal fats were classified as the most harmful to health due to their high content of saturated fatty acids and cholesterol, with recommendations to replace them with vegetable oils. Partially hydrogenated oils rich in trans fatty acids (TFAs) were the recommended replacement for saturated fats. This
Time magazine cover from 26 March 1984 (left) and 6 September 1999 (right) illustrating the changing narrative on dietary cholesterol and mass media dissemination of research
Source: E Dubinsky/Time
became the dominant narrative and shaped US dietary guidelines, translating into different figures such as the food pyramids of the late 20th and early 21st centuries. These guidelines exerted a global influence to the point of being included on food packaging in many countries until just a few years ago.
Guidelines, along with recommendations of leading health institutions such as the American Heart Association (AHA), aimed to limit cholesterol intake to 300mg/day and egg consumption to a maximum of three per week.
This narrative has changed significantly since the 1990s due to concerns over TFAs originating mainly from the partial hydrogenation of oils.
Although new research since the end of the 20th century showed that there was no scientific evidence linking cholesterol intake with CVD, it was only with the US 2015-2020 Dietary Guidelines that this cholesterol limit was eliminated.
The cover of two Time magazine editions in 1984 and 1999 (pictured left) illustrate how these two different food narratives appeared and disappeared. The covers led to mass dissemination of the research work on dietary cholesterol in scientific literature during the different time periods.
However, one issue with mass media reporting of scientific findings establishing probable relationships between diet and health is their reproduction without nuance. With the Internet and social networks of today, the multiplier effect is even greater now compared with the past.
u
Photo: Health Canada
STATISTICS
STATISTICAL NEWS
EU imports of soyabeans
The EU is a major market for US soyabeans, second only to China, with EU retaliatory duties of 25% against US agricultural exports expected to negatively impact US soyabean sales, according to Germany’s Union for the Promotion of Oil and Protein Plants (UFOP).
The USA is the world’s second largest supplier of soyabeans after Brazil, with 2024/25 production totalling just under 119M tonnes, some 50M tonnes of which are expected to be exported.
The EU bought 13.1M of soyabeans in 2023/24, UFOP said. EU importers are likely to turn to South American soyabean suppliers to meet their future needs, according to Agrarmarkt Informations-Gesellschaft (mbH). Ukraine is also expected to move further into focus as a supplier.
Canadian and European canola
Diverging fundamentals relating to European rapeseed and Canadian canola have widened the spread between both oilseeds, according to the Lipsa 1 April market flash. EU supplies are diminishing rapidly, supporting prices, with a reduced crop and high crushing activity making demand rationing inevitable in the remainder of the 2024/25 season.
Canada supplies, on the other hand, might turn out larger than predicted. Any tariffs by the country’s two largest trading partners, China and the USA, will strongly affect its canola trade, and rapeseed oil flows.
US imports of rapeseed oil are expected to decline by 10% between April-September 2025 due to lower biodiesel demand and potential trade restrictions.
Waste/used
cooking
oils for
biodiesel, HVO, SAF World collection of used/waste oils slowed down in 2024, Artem Hammerschmidt, head of vegetable oils and biofuels research at CERAS Analytics told the March Price Outlook Conference (POC 2025) in Malaysia.
These oils would increasingly exceed supplies in 2025 and 2026 due to rising production of biodiesel, renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), he said.
G9 (Argentina, Brazil, China, Canada, EU, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and USA) consumption of biodiesel/ renewable diesel/SAF would rise from 60.3M tonnes in 2024, to 64.1M tonnes in 2025 and 68.4M tonnes in 2026, he added.
Soft oils versus palm oil yields per hectare
Yields of soft oils (rapeseed, soyabean and sunflower oils) have steadilty increased over the years while Malaysia’s crude palm oil (CPO) yield has remained stagnant, declining from its peak in 2008, SD Guthrie International CEO Dr Shariman Alwani, told the March Price Outlook Conference (POC 2025) in Malaysia.
Rapeseed oil yield has grown from 0.529 tonne/ha in 1991 to 0.89 tonne/ha in 2024 (+68%). Soyabean oil yield grew from 0.308 tonne/ha to 0.714 tonne/ha in the same time period (+132%); sunflowerseed from 0.664 tonne/ha to 0.894 tonne/ha (+35%) while CPO had stagnated at 3.45 tonne/ha with 0% growth.
Source: S Alwani, SD Gutherie
Soft vs palm oil yields per hectare, 1991-2025 (tonnes/hectare)
Source: A Hammerschmidt, CERAS Analytics
Rising world deficit of used and waste oils (million tonnes)
Source: Lipsa 1/4/2005 market flash
Daily rapeseed and canola futures (US$/tonne)
Source: UFOP (European Commission)
EU soyabean imports by country of origin including USA (million tonnes)
