GLOBAL STRATEGIC REVIEW
POLITICAL RISK/RISK ANALYSIS
UKRAINE
RUSSIA
(l–r) Carl Bildt, Minister for Foreign Affairs, Sweden; Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS; and Bård Glad Pedersen, State Secretary, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Norway
concluded that strategic realities have created
Samuel Charap, IISS Senior Fellow for
EU and Ukraine needed to include special pro-
a ‘new sense of exposure and vulnerability’ in
Russia and Eurasia, agreed with Heisbourg on
visions for the exchange of goods, capital and
Europe. On balance, Europe is heading towards
the problematic nature of a sanctions strategy: it
people across the Ukraine–Russia border. More
a more difficult security future.
‘focused largely on punishing Russia rather than
broadly, the West might contain Russian adven-
addressing problems that led to this impasse’.
turism, but it should shed any illusions about
Keynote Session on the International System
There is a need for balance between sanction-
solving Russia’s internal problems.
and the Ukraine Crisis
ing bad behaviour and leaving doors open to
The Ukraine keynote session was chaired by
a solution. IISS Council Member Igor Yurgens,
First Plenary – The Transformation of the
Adam Ward, Director of Studies of the IISS.
who is Chairman of the Moscow-based Institute
Geopolitical and Geo-economic Order in the
Professor François Heisbourg, Chairman of
for Contemporary Development, assessed the
Middle East
the IISS Council, argued in his address that the
pluses and minuses of the crisis from Moscow’s
The rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham
Ukraine crisis is fundamentally different from
perspective. On the positive side, the possibility
(ISIS) has both exposed and exacerbated the
other post-Cold War crises because the formal
of ruling out NATO membership for Ukraine
grave structural weaknesses and political con-
incorporation of territory by a predator state
might be on the table, and Putin has boosted
tradictions of Middle Eastern states. The crisis
was an ‘exceedingly rare act’, signalling that
his popularity and consolidated his leadership.
of legitimacy of governing Arab elites and the
Russia is exiting the post-Cold War system. In
On the negative side, this has come at a huge
weakening of states have created vacuums
Heisbourg’s opinion, this emanated from the
economic price – possibly $200 billion in 2014
increasingly filled by extremist, revisionist
widely held view in Moscow of the ‘Versailles-
alone. There will be a creeping renationalisation
actors.
like punishment of Russia’ following the
of oil and gas industries, further damaging the
Former Iraqi deputy prime minister Dr
collapse of the Soviet Union. In Moscow’s act
economy, as a consequence of sanctions. Russia
Barham Salih noted that the challenge to post-
of rebellion against this punishment, the ‘West’s
meanwhile finds itself in a weak overall posi-
First World War borders in the Middle East did
rulebook no longer applies’. The crisis would
tion: it has 200 million people and 2% of global
not come from communities with old grievances
likely last for a long time because, ‘it is not about
GDP, compared to the ‘consolidated West’s’ 1bn
but from a new, extremist Islamist movement,
[Russian President Vladimir] Putin, not even
people and 40% of global GDP.
namely ISIS. Roula Khalaf, Foreign Editor of
about the regime, it is about Russia’. The West’s
Comments from the floor were balanced
the Financial Times, reflected on the dashed
strategy should be to strengthen Ukraine just
between those who doubted that anything like
hopes of the Arab uprisings and referred to the
as Finland and Yugoslavia were supported by
a no-NATO-membership guarantee would
region as a ‘comprehensive mess’. Failing states
the West in the Cold War. The analogy also sug-
stop Russia’s depredations, and those who
such as Syria and Iraq are cohabiting with the
gests one important concession: the ‘goal should
wondered if such a concession offered much
increasingly autocratic Gulf states and regional
be a strong neutral Ukraine’. Ruling out NATO
earlier could have headed off the conflict. There
dynamics, she explained, and are shaped by
membership just might be part of a solution that
was also a question of whether the eastward
an Iranian–Saudi cold war. This is taking dan-
Moscow could accept. Heisbourg added that
expansion of EU influence is considered, by
gerous and enduring sectarian forms and is
leaving the NATO question ‘in abeyance … can
Russia, to be as threatening as NATO expan-
exacerbated by the nuclear talks. The struggle
only worry the Russians without reassuring the
sion. In response, Yurgens reiterated that any
over the future of political Islam – with Saudi
Ukrainians’.
revived Association Agreement between the
Arabia, the UAE and Egypt vying against the
2
|
OCTOBER 2014
IISS NEWS