IISS Shangri La Dialogue 2018

THE INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES

IISS Shangri-La Dialogue 17TH ASIA SECURITY SUMMIT SINGAPORE, 1–3 JUNE 2018

THE INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES 17TH ASIA SECURITY SUMMIT SINGAPORE, 1–3 JUNE 2018

The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

THE INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES 17TH ASIA SECURITY SUMMIT SINGAPORE, 1–3 JUNE 2018

The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

The International Institute for Strategic Studies Arundel House | 6 Temple Place | London | wc2r 2pg | UK www.iiss.org

© September 2018 The International Institute for Strategic Studies Director-General and Chief Executive Dr John Chipman

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or

Editor Dr William Choong

utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now

Contributors Dr Lucie Béraud-Sudreau, Mark Fitzpatrick,

known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in

Dr Bastian Giegerich, James Hackett, Dr Tim Huxley, Antoine

any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing

Levesques, Alexander Neill, Sarah Raine, Rahul Roy-Chaudhury,

from the Institute.

Dr Kori Schake Editorial Sara Hussain, Gaynor Roberts, Sam Stocker Production and Design John Buck, Kelly Verity

Printed and bound in Great Britain by Hobbs the Printers Ltd, Hampshire.

The International Institute for Strategic Studies is an independent centre for research, information and debate on the problems of conflict, however caused, that have, or potentially have, an important military content. The Council and Staff of the Institute are international and its membership is drawn from over 90 countries. The Institute is independent and it alone decides what activities to conduct. It owes no allegiance to any government, any group of governments or any political or other organisation.

The IISS stresses rigorous research with a forward-looking policy orientation and places particular emphasis on bringing new perspectives to the strategic debate.

Contents Foreword . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Chapter 1 Keynote address . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Chapter 2 First plenary session US leadership and the challenges of Indo-Pacific security . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Chapter 3 Second plenary session De-escalating the North Korean crisis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 Chapter 4 Third plenary session Shaping Asia’s evolving security order . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 Chapter 5 Simultaneous special sessions Session 1 New strategic technologies and the future of conflict . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Session 2 Enhancing maritime security: codes of conduct and confidence-building measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Session 3 The security and humanitarian crisis in Myanmar’s Rakhine State . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Session 4 Competition and cooperation in the Indian Ocean Region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Session 5 Strategic implications of military capability development in the Asia-Pacific . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Session 6 Managing competition in regional security cooperation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

40 42 44 46 48 50

Chapter 6 Istana Reception and Dinner . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 Chapter 7 Fourth plenary session New dimensions of terrorism and counter-terrorism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 Chapter 8 Fifth plenary session Raising the bar for regional security cooperation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 Chapter 9 The Southeast Asian Young Leaders’ Programme . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 Appendices I. Selected press coverage of the 2018 IISS Shangri-La Dialogue . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78 II. Selected IISS publications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86

FOREWORD

The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) held

Leaders’ Programme. Each year, SEAYLP provides an

its 17th annual Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore on 1–3

opportunity for a new generation of strategists to discuss

June 2018. We are pleased to present this report, which

security questions and challenge their perspectives. The

summarises the Dialogue’s open proceedings, including all

2018 programme involved 36 Young Leaders, who ben-

plenary and special sessions. The full transcripts of these

efited from events on the Dialogue’s sidelines that included

sessions are available on the IISS website. As was the case

meetings with Singapore’s foreign minister and the new

last year, the report also includes a section on the Southeast

commander of US Indo-Pacific Command.

Asian Young Leaders’ Programme (SEAYLP).

As ever, the major security concerns of the day pro-

The 2018 Shangri-La Dialogue – which opened with

vided the substance for the Dialogue’s discussions. Held

a keynote address from Indian Prime Minister Narendra

shortly before the unprecedented summit in Singapore

Modi – provided defence ministers and officials, high-rank-

between US President Donald Trump and North Korean

ing armed forces staff and other distinguished delegates

leader Kim Jong-un, there was naturally much debate

from Asia-Pacific national security establishments with an

related to developments on the Korean Peninsula. Other

unparalleled opportunity to assess current and emerging

key topics included the emerging Indo-Pacific strategic

regional security issues, and to develop practical coopera-

concept, mechanisms for regional security cooperation and

tion in response to these challenges. This year 565 delegates

challenges to the regional and global rules-based order.

participated, just over half of them from governments and

The IISS is grateful to the government of Singapore for

armed forces. A total of 44 governments sent delegations.

its continuing support for the Shangri-La Dialogue process

Of these, 28 were regular participants in the Dialogue.

under the Memorandum of Understanding agreed by the

Sixteen governments that are not regular participants were

IISS and Singapore’s Ministry of Defence in 2012. As part

also represented officially, in four cases by full ministers.

of this process, the sixth IISS Fullerton Forum: Shangri-La

The European Union and NATO also sent high-level del-

Dialogue Sherpa Meeting was convened successfully in

egations, and once again there was a notably strong United

late January 2018 and provided useful input for the IISS as

States congressional delegation comprising three senators

we devised the agenda for the 2018 Dialogue.

and six members of the House.

We also thank the following commercial lead spon-

As ever, the Dialogue facilitated many private meet-

sors for their additional, vital financial support for the

ings, including trilateral and multilateral gatherings as

Shangri-La Dialogue: Airbus Group, BAE Systems, Boeing,

well as 91 bilateral meetings, between government del-

Lockheed Martin and Raytheon, and to main sponsors the

egations. More publicly, regional and international media

Asahi Shimbun, Booz Allen Hamilton and ST Engineering.

were able to cover the plenary and special sessions, which

The Shangri-La Hotel generously sponsored the Dialogue’s

were attended by non-government as well as official del-

opening dinner. The IISS looks forward to developing

egates. An important initiative at the 2017 Shangri-La

these partnerships, and initiating new ones, in the shared

Dialogue was an informal meeting between the US defence

interest of promoting regional security dialogue and coop-

secretary and the defence ministers of Southeast Asian

eration through the Shangri-La Dialogue process over the

governments. This continued in 2018, with US Secretary of

coming years.

Defense James Mattis and Singapore Minister for Defence Dr Ng Eng Hen co-chairing an informal meeting involv-

Dr John Chipman CMG,

ing their Southeast Asian counterparts. The IISS hosted an

IISS Director-General and Chief Executive

opening ministerial reception for national delegation lead-

Dr Tim Huxley,

ers, and organised the third annual Southeast Asian Young

Executive Director, IISS–Asia

Foreword

5

INTRODUCTION

The first Shangri-La Dialogue was convened by the

ingly viewed the substance and tone of exchanges at

International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS)

the Dialogue as important indicators of the state of the

in 2002 in response to the evident need for a forum

region’s security.

where the principals of the region’s national defence establishments – together with their counterparts with important security interests in the Asia-Pacific –

CHALLENGES TO THE REGIONAL SECURITY ORDER

could engage in dialogue aimed at building mutual

Due to the great geographical extent of the region

confidence and fostering practical cooperation. Since

with which the Shangri-La Dialogue is concerned,

then it has become, as US Secretary of Defense James

the diversity of participant states and the broad spec-

Mattis said at this year’s Dialogue, ‘the best opportu-

trum of security challenges evident in the region, the

nity for senior officials to meet, share perspectives’. In

IISS has always sought to ensure that the Dialogue’s

2018, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi delivered

agenda is wide-ranging. There is no overarching

the keynote address. The address, which focused on

theme for each year’s Dialogue. Rather, the agenda

India’s long history of international engagement as

has consistently reflected what the Institute sees as

well as New Delhi’s enduring role in the Indo-Pacific,

the most important contemporary and emerging

lent weight to the idea of a dynamic region that neces-

security concerns in the region. In 2018, there was

sitated the continued involvement and attention of

considerable thematic continuity from the previous

major powers.

year’s Shangri-La Dialogue; however, two key issues

from the United States and other Western countries

Originally known as the Asia Security Summit, the

emerged prominently in the summit’s discussions –

Shangri-La Dialogue remains the only annual meet-

the ongoing negotiations between the US (and also

ing for Asia-Pacific defence ministers together with

other parties, including South Korea and China) with

permanent heads of defence ministries and military

North Korea over its nuclear-weapons programme,

chiefs. A parallel meeting convenes intelligence chiefs

and the emerging Indo-Pacific concept. Prime Minister

from selected regional and extra-regional states. The

Modi’s address reinforced a sense that the concept of

Shangri-La Dialogue has come to be seen interna-

a broad Indo-Pacific strategic region was gaining cur-

tionally as a vital Asia-Pacific security institution. It

rency, particularly at a time when India is on the rise

provides an opportunity for governments not only

in all dimensions of national power.

to explain their defence and security concerns and to

Since the Dialogue’s inception in 2002, the threat to

publicise their defence policies, but also to develop

the region posed by the Democratic People’s Republic

their bilateral and other contacts with each other. The

of Korea’s (DPRK) nuclear, biological and chemical

Shangri-La Dialogue has helped to cultivate a sense

weapons had repeatedly triggered debate at the

of community among the security establishments of

annual gathering. In 2018, such discussions took on

regional countries and of other powers with significant

greater salience, given the rapprochement between the

stakes in the security of the Asia-Pacific. Governments,

two Koreas (more specifically, the historic meeting at

the expert community and the media have increas-

Panmunjom between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un

Introduction

7

Patrick de Castelbajac, Executive Vice President of Strategy & International at Airbus SE; Harjit Singh Sajjan, Minister of National Defence, Canada; and Teo Chee Hean, Deputy Prime Minister and Coordinating Minister for National Security, Singapore

James Mattis, United States Secretary of Defense; Song Young-moo, Minister of National Defense, Republic of Korea; and Lieutenant-General He Lei, Vice President, Academy of Military Science, People’s Liberation Army, China

and South Korean President Moon Jae-in in April

of democratic freedoms; the freedom of navigation

2018), and the imminent summit between US President

and overflight; the peaceful settlement of disputes;

Donald Trump and Kim, which was scheduled to be

as well as the negotiated evolution of what consti-

held in Singapore 11 days after the commencement of

tutes the regional and global ‘rules-based order’. A

the latest Shangri-La Dialogue. During the course of

pertinent development during discussions about the

the Dialogue, ministers consistently stressed the need

Indo-Pacific concept emerged, when it became evident

for Pyongyang to carry out the CVID of its weapons

that none of the ministers from the four Quadrilateral

programme, though there was no unanimity as to

Security Dialogue (or ‘Quad’) countries (Australia,

what this referred – complete, verifiable, irreversible

India, Japan and the United States) went so far as to

dismantlement/denuclearisation.

use the term ‘Quadrilateral Security Dialogue’ during

US Secretary of Defense James Mattis took care to

their speeches at the Dialogue. Asked directly about

underscore that, progress on US–DPRK disarmament

Washington’s position on the Quad (which is a more

talks notwithstanding, the withdrawal of US troops

defence- and security-related concept, compared to

stationed on the peninsula would not be up for discus-

the associated Indo-Pacific concept), Mattis said it was

sion at the upcoming bilateral summit.

‘one of those additional multilateral mechanisms that

The Indo-Pacific concept emerged as a focus for dis-

we look to’ and stated his support for it.

cussion at the 2018 Dialogue. The concept had its first

At the 2018 Dialogue, delegates again expressed

public airing at the Dialogue in 2014, when Japanese

concerns about America’s continuing commitment to

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe – the keynote speaker

its allies and partners across the region. These commit-

that year – noted the growing strategic confluence of

ments are widely seen as critical to the maintenance of

the Indian and Pacific Oceans, and stressed the ben-

the rules-based order which has provided the frame-

efits of a free and open region based on the accessible

work for the Asia-Pacific’s security and prosperity.

global commons where the rule of law was respected.

Regional anxiety over this matter was clear at the 2017

The same high principles were again emphasised –

Dialogue, and has grown unabated, given the Trump

and further developed – at the 2018 Dialogue. Most

administration’s call for treaty allies to shoulder more

importantly, these included the need for sovereignty

of their defence burdens; its focus on ‘America First’ to

and territorial integrity to be respected; the promise

the detriment of trading relationships between the US

8

The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

and long-standing allies; and Washington’s perceived inability to challenge China over the militarisation of the features that it occupies in the South China Sea. During the 2018 Dialogue, Secretary Mattis continued to assert that the US, as an Asia-Pacific nation, remained committed to building a ‘shared destiny’ for the Indo-Pacific, and to maintaining the region’s security, stability and economic prosperity – a position that he said enjoyed ‘strong bipartisan support’ in Washington. Not all delegates, however, were reassured. One journalist, for example, asked pointedly whether disagreements between the US and its partners and allies amounted to the US ‘doing [China’s] work’ in terms of seeking to ‘separate the United States from its allies and partners’. Singaporean Minister for Defence Dr Ng Eng Hen said that both the US and China were deviating from global norms, even as they

Professor François Heisbourg, Chair of the Council, IISS; Fleur de Villiers, Chair of the Trustees, IISS; and Ursula von der Leyen, Federal Minister of Defence, Germany

sought to protect their core interests – the US through the imposition of unilateral tariffs on steel and alu-

of ‘US leadership and the challenges of Indo-Pacific

minium imports on the grounds of national security,

security’. The second plenary, on ‘De-escalating

and China by deploying missiles and other military

the North Korean crisis’, featured the Republic of

systems in the South China Sea.

Korea’s Minister of National Defense Song Young-

It has become a tradition that the Shangri-La

moo, Japanese Minister of Defence Itsunori Onodera

Dialogue starts with a keynote address at the open-

and Canadian Minister of National Defence Harjit

ing dinner delivered by the leader of a key participant

Singh Sajjan. In the third plenary session, Vietnam’s

state. In 2018, India provided the keynote speaker for

Minister of National Defence General Ngô Xuân

the first time. In his keynote address, Prime Minister

Lich, Indonesia’s Minister of Defense General (Retd)

Modi stressed that Southeast Asia was at the centre

Ryamizard Ryacudu and Australian Minister of

of the Indo-Pacific, and deemed unity among the

Defence Marise Payne spoke on the topic of ‘Shaping

Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) as

Asia’s evolving security order’. On the third and

crucial to regional stability. Global shifts in the power

final day of the Dialogue, Dr Khalid bin Mohammed

balance, a change in the character of the global economy

Al Attiyah, deputy prime minister and defence min-

and disruptions in technology meant that countries

ister of Qatar, the Philippine Secretary of National

have to ‘rise above divisions and competition to work

Defense Major-General (Retd) Delfin Lorenzana and

together’. Modi offered his support to Indo-Pacific prin-

the German Federal Minister of Defence Dr Ursula

ciples such as the freedom of navigation, unimpeded

von der Leyen spoke in the fourth plenary session on

commerce and the peaceful settlement of disputes in

the theme ‘New dimensions of terrorism and coun-

accordance with international law. He noted that ‘Asia

ter-terrorism’. In the final plenary, France’s Minister

and the world will have a better future when India and

of the Armed Forces Florence Parly, the United

China work together in trust and confidence’.

Kingdom’s Secretary of State for Defence Gavin

The IISS was pleased that full ministers occupied

Williamson and Singapore’s Minister for Defence Dr

all the available positions on plenary session panels

Ng addressed the theme ‘Raising the bar for regional

at the 2018 Shangri-La Dialogue. On the Dialogue’s

security cooperation’.

second day, US Secretary of Defense James Mattis’s

The six special sessions chaired by IISS directing

address in the first plenary session was on the topic

and senior staff looked in detail at some more specific

Introduction

9

current security challenges: ‘New strategic technologies and the future of conflict’; ‘Enhancing maritime security: codes of conduct and confidence-building measures’; ‘The security and humanitarian crisis in Myanmar’s Rakhine State’; ‘Competition and cooperation in the Indian Ocean Region’; ‘Strategic implications of military capability development in the Asia-Pacific’; and ‘Managing competition in regional security cooperation’. In these special sessions a total of 25 panellists, including three full ministers, defence chiefs and senior officials from other departments, and senior representatives from NATO and the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) made opening remarks, which were followed by frank and challenging discussions with participating delegates.

Gavin Williamson, Secretary of State for Defence, UK; John Harris, Chief Executive Officer, Raytheon International; Alan Garwood, Group Business Development Director, BAE Systems; and Lieutenant-General (Retd) Sir Tom Beckett, KCB, CBE, Executive Director, IISS–Middle East

HIGH-LEVEL DELEGATIONS Since the IISS established the Shangri-La Dialogue,

in 2002. This increased to 250 in 2006, 330 in 2010, 364

the pressures on the time and attention of defence

in 2013, 451 in 2014, 490 in 2015 and a remarkable 602

ministers, military chiefs and the most senior national

in 2016. These rising delegate numbers resulted from

security officials in the Asia-Pacific region have only

sustained efforts by the IISS to increase participation

increased. One reason is that substantive challenges

by senior officials concerned with security matters in

to national and regional security have become more

foreign ministries and national security secretariats,

complex and demanding. The inauguration of other

and to expand the representation of women, media

high-level regional defence forums has also put addi-

and businesses among the delegates. In 2017, there

tional pressure on their time and attention. These

were 487 delegates at the Dialogue, 48% of them from

forums include the ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting

governments and armed forces. In 2018, there were

(ADMM), its offshoot the ADMM-Plus – involving the

565 delegates, 52% of them in the government and

defence establishments of eight ASEAN dialogue part-

military categories.

ners, as well as those of the ASEAN member states

At the first Shangri-La Dialogue in 2002, the

– and the growing number of security conferences in

defence establishments of many Asia-Pacific coun-

the region that serve essentially national objectives:

tries were already represented at a high level, with

these include the Xiangshan Forum organised by

defence ministers, deputy ministers or close equiva-

China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA), the Seoul

lents participating on behalf of 14 countries. In 2017,

Defense Dialogue and India’s Raisina Dialogue. It is

of the 28 regular participant countries represented at

striking, though, that governments have maintained –

the Dialogue, 17 sent delegations led by full ministers

and in many cases strengthened – their involvement in

or, in several cases, their deputies; six others were led

the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue, which has become insti-

by permanent secretaries or armed forces chiefs. In

tutionalised as a recurrent fixture in the diaries of the

2018, 19 regular participant countries’ delegations

Asia-Pacific’s defence ministers and other principals.

were led by full ministers, four by deputy defence

Such has been the regional and international

ministers or equivalents, and two by permanent sec-

appeal of the Shangri-La Dialogue that total delegate

retaries and armed forces chiefs. Beside the countries

numbers have been on a steady upward trend since

that participate regularly, there were government rep-

its inception in 2002. There were about 160 delegates

resentatives from 16 other countries from Europe, the

10

The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

Middle East, Latin America, the Indian Ocean and the

participation by China. China first sent official repre-

South Pacific. Of the 44 countries represented at the

sentation to the Shangri-La Dialogue in 2007. In 2011,

2018 Dialogue, 23 delegations were led by full minis-

General Liang Guanglie, then-minister of national

ters or equivalents: Australia, Cambodia, Canada, Fiji,

defence, led the PLA delegation and spoke in a ‘solo’

France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia,

plenary session. Regrettably, China has not subse-

Myanmar, New Zealand, the Philippines, Qatar, the

quently been represented at the same level. While

Republic of Korea, Romania, Seychelles, Singapore,

the PLA emphasised its continuing recognition of the

Switzerland, Thailand, the United Kingdom, the

importance of the Dialogue and its wish to continue

United States and Vietnam. Thirteen ministers spoke

benefiting from the opportunity to explain China’s

in plenary sessions. Other high-ranking officials,

defence policy there, from 2014–16 the leadership of

including defence chiefs and military personnel,

the PLA delegation stabilised at the level of deputy

led the delegations from the following regular par-

chief of the General Staff Department. In 2017, Dr

ticipant countries: Bangladesh, China, Sri Lanka and

John Chipman, director-general and chief executive

Timor-Leste. The European Union (EU) and NATO

of the IISS, noted in his remarks at the Dialogue’s

also sent high-level delegations.

opening dinner that the PLA was in the middle of

Certain key participant countries, including

‘the most intense and wide-ranging military reform

Australia, Indonesia, Japan, the Republic of Korea,

process in its long history’. Such a reform process

Malaysia, New Zealand, the UK, the US and, of

meant that they could not send a delegation leader of

course, Singapore, have since the Dialogue’s early

sufficiently high rank and status to speak in plenary

years sent strong delegations usually led by full min-

sessions at the Dialogue. That year, the Chinese dele-

isters or their equivalents. Other governments have

gation – which was led by Lieutenant-General He Lei,

strengthened their contingents over time. In 2018, it

vice-president of the Academy of Military Science –

was notable that Brunei, Cambodia, Canada, France,

expressed China’s positions through speaking roles

Indonesia, the Philippines, Switzerland and Thailand

in special sessions and interventions in plenary

all contributed impressively strong government and

sessions’ question-and-answer segments. This con-

military delegations. The interest of European gov-

tinued in 2018, when China’s delegation was again

ernments in the Dialogue has continued to grow. In

led by Lieutenant-General He Lei. Nevertheless, the

2018, Switzerland – listed as a participating country

IISS will continue to encourage China and other gov-

in its own right for the first time in 2017 – again sent

ernments not represented at full ministerial level in

a strong delegation led by its minister of defence,

2018 to send stronger delegations to the Dialogue in

Guy Parmelin. Secretary of State for Defence Gavin

2019 and beyond.

Willamson led the British delegation to the Dialogue

The

Shangri-La

Dialogue

has

consistently

for the first time and in his plenary address empha-

provided a platform which participant countries’

sised the UK’s continuing commitment to regional

defence ministers and other principals have used

security cooperation and robust support for the rules-

to elaborate and clarify their countries’ positions

based international order. Florence Parly, France’s

on the most important regional security topics of

minister of the armed forces, stressed the importance

the day. This in turn has led to the development of

of maritime waterways for the economic security

a unique IISS Shangri-La Dialogue culture of frank

of states in the region. Other high-level European

and open debate. The Dialogue has also been a

delegates included Romania’s vice prime minister

singular venue for proposing and advancing defence

for strategic-partnership implementation and the

initiatives in spheres as diverse as maritime-security

Swedish defence ministry’s state secretary.

cooperation against piracy in the Malacca Strait;

As is always the case, there was intense interest

the strategic and safety implications of regional

among other participating governments, the expert

states’ growing submarine capabilities; the regional

community and the media regarding the level of

proliferation of small arms and light weapons; and

Introduction

11

the regional security architecture. In 2018, the French and British defence ministers both emphasised their respective countries’ continuing interests in freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, and that their navies would send ships there in the near future. In addition, Singapore’s defence minister Dr Ng Eng Hen unveiled a series of initiatives that the city state planned to pursue during its current chairmanship of the ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting: a maritime exercise involving ASEAN members and China (to be co-directed by Singapore and China); the expansion within

the ADMM-Plus

grouping

of

counter-

terrorism intelligence-sharing; and the adoption

by ADMM-Plus navies of the Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea (CUES).

Defence establishments in the region have increasingly found benefit in using the Shangri-La Dialogue

Teo Chee Hean, Deputy Prime Minister and Coordinating Minister for National Security, Singapore; and Song Young-moo, Minister of National Defense, Republic of Korea

as a venue for private bilateral, trilateral and multilateral meetings. In 2018, the IISS was aware of almost

ENRICHING DISCUSSIONS AT THE DIALOGUE

91 bilateral meetings in the Shangri-La Hotel, but

The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue has remained above all

recognised that there were almost certainly many

a Track One intergovernmental meeting. Nevertheless,

other meetings on the sidelines of the Dialogue of

from the first Dialogue onwards, participation by non-

which it did not have a record. The detailed content

governmental delegates has animated and enriched the

of such meetings is, naturally, usually confidential.

proceedings, particularly through the questions that

Nevertheless, governments have sometimes divulged

such delegates pose to ministerial and other speakers

details of their substance in public statements. For

in plenary and special sessions. In 2018, the IISS again

example, British Secretary of State for Defence

sought to ensure a strong cohort of non-government del-

Williamson and Singapore’s Minister for Defence Dr

egates, placing special emphasis on organising a strong

Ng signed a memorandum of understanding aimed at

Southeast Asian Young Leaders’ Programme (SEAYLP).

strengthening the deep and broad defence and security

A separate section in this report provides comprehen-

relationship between the two countries. As in previous

sive details of the latest, highly successful SEAYLP.

years, Singapore’s minister hosted a roundtable dis-

The IISS also worked hard to make sure that the

cussion for his fellow ministers – a regular feature of

2018 Shangri-La Dialogue was reported by a strong

the Dialogue since its inception in 2002. The ministers

and diverse international contingent of media del-

exchanged views on a wide range of topics, including

egates, including expert bloggers on regional defence

developments on the Korean Peninsula; the persistent

and security as well as widely respected newspaper

spectre of terrorism and potential additional counter-

columnists. There were 39 media delegates, in addition

terrorist measures; and the region’s evolving security

to more than 500 journalists registered as members

architecture. US Secretary of Defense James Mattis and

of the press corps for the Dialogue. There was again

Dr Ng co-chaired an informal meeting with Southeast

also a wide range of private-sector delegates. The IISS

Asian defence ministers. At the meeting, Secretary

is committed to refreshing the ranks of non-govern-

Mattis underscored the United States’ continuing com-

mental delegates, and to increasing their diversity,

mitment to the region, and the role that Washington’s

with the aim of further expanding awareness of the

Indo-Pacific strategy would play in the region’s ‘free

Shangri-La Dialogue in the wider expert, media and

and open’ security architecture.

business communities.

12

The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

Leanne Caret, Executive Vice President, Boeing Company; President and Chief Executive Officer, Boeing Defense, Space & Security; Dr Ng Eng Hen, Minister for Defence, Singapore; and Marise Payne, Minister of Defence, Australia

Marillyn Hewson, Chief Executive Officer, Lockheed Martin

Since the first Shangri-La Dialogue in 2002, at which

memorable month in the history of this region’s secu-

then-senator Chuck Hagel led a strong, bipartisan US

rity development’. The very definition of the region’s

congressional delegation, the IISS has encouraged par-

geopolitics was changing, with the increased adoption

ticipation by legislators with strong defence, security

of the term ‘Indo-Pacific’ and the acknowledgement

and foreign affairs interests and expertise. In 2018,

that the Indian and Pacific Oceans were a ‘single, inte-

there was a particularly strong congressional delega-

grated strategic theatre’. A particularly remarkable

tion comprising three senators and six members of

aspect of the Shangri-La Dialogue was not just the fact

the House of Representatives. Senator Dan Sullivan,

that it was a place for important policy statements to

member of the Committee on Armed Services at the

be made, conversations had or even as a forum where

US Senate, spoke in a special-session panel.

actual agreements were signed; rather, the Dialogue provided a platform where ‘diplomatic activity actually happens and is initiated and policy innovations

LOOKING FORWARD

are made’.

In his opening comments at the 2018 Shangri-La

The 18th IISS Shangri-La Dialogue will be held in

Dialogue, IISS Director-General and Chief Executive

Singapore on 31 May to 2 June 2019. In the interim,

Dr John Chipman remarked that there would be little

on 27–29 January 2019, the IISS will hold the seventh

doubt that that the latest Dialogue was timely. The

IISS Fullerton Forum: The Shangri-La Dialogue Sherpa

2018 Dialogue, he said, was ‘taking place at a crucial

Meeting, which will convene senior defence officials

time and in the right place. A great deal of work can be

and military officers from participant countries in

done here and now in Singapore to make June 2018 a

Singapore in advance of the next Dialogue.

Introduction

13

14

The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

CHAPTER 1

17TH ASIA SECURITY SUMMIT SINGAPORE, 1–3 JUNE 2018

KEYNOTE ADDRESS Friday 1 June 2018, 20:00 SPEAKER Narendra Modi Prime Minister of India

Keynote address In the first-ever keynote address at the IISS Shangri-La

In the Indian Ocean Region, India helped to build

Dialogue by an Indian prime minister, Narendra

economic capabilities and improve maritime secu-

Modi articulated for the first time India’s vision for

rity for its friends and partners. India promoted

the Indo-Pacific region. India now places the Indo-

collective security through the Indian Ocean Naval

Pacific region firmly at the heart of its engagement

Symposium and advanced a ‘comprehensive agenda

with the world.

of regional cooperation through the Indian Ocean

Prime Minister Modi defined the region as essen-

Rim Association’. India also worked with its part-

tially a maritime one, extending from the shores of

ners beyond the Indian Ocean Region to ‘ensure that

Africa to that of the Americas. The importance of

the global transit routes remain peaceful and free for

the oceans to India is well known. Thousands of

all’. Modi explained that India’s vision for the Indian

years ago, the Indus Valley civilisation as well as

Ocean, called SAGAR (meaning ‘ocean’ in Hindi),

the Indian peninsula conducted maritime trade. In

stands for Security and Growth for All in the Region,

ancient Indian scriptures, the geographical defini-

and this vision was being executed towards India’s

tion of India was ‘the land which lies to the north

east with increased vigour through the Act East Policy.

of the seas’. The Indian Ocean has shaped much of

The Malacca Strait and the South China Sea con-

India’s history. Modi said that it now holds the key

nect India to the Pacific and to most of its major

to India’s future, carrying 90% of India’s trade and

partners – the Association of Southeast Asian Nations

its energy sources.

(ASEAN), Japan, the Republic of Korea, China and

Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India

16

The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS

the Americas. India has had historical links with the

Modi said that none of India’s relationships had

ASEAN region for over two thousand years, with

‘as many layers’ as its relations with China. In April,

its ten countries connecting the two great oceans

a two-day informal summit between Prime Minister

in ‘both the geographical and civilisational sense’.

Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping solidified their

The Indo-Pacific is therefore a natural region. Modi

mutual ‘understanding that strong and stable bilateral

stressed that ‘inclusiveness, openness and ASEAN

relations’ were an ‘important factor for global peace

centrality and unity therefore lie at the heart of the

and progress’. Modi announced his belief that ‘Asia

new Indo-Pacific’. Modi said that India does not see

and the world will have a better future when India and

the Indo-Pacific region as ‘a strategy or as a club of

China work together in trust and confidence, sensitive

limited members, nor as a grouping that seeks to

to each other’s interests’.

dominate’. Nor does India consider such a geographical definition as ‘directed against any country’.

The prime minister stated that India’s vision for the Indo-Pacific region had six elements. First, it stood

Modi outlined India’s relations with ASEAN,

for a ‘free, open, inclusive region’ in ‘common pursuit

saying they went from dialogue partners to strategic

of progress and prosperity’. It included all nations in

partners over the course of 25 years. Its partnership

this region and beyond, who have a stake in its future.

with Japan is a ‘cornerstone of India’s Act East Policy’,

Another element was the fact that Southeast Asia is at

while cooperation with the Republic of Korea is

the centre of India’s vision, and ASEAN is central to

marked by ‘strong momentum’. Modi also noted the

the future of the Indo-Pacific region.

‘fresh energy’ in India’s partnerships with Australia

Elaborating on the third element, Modi said that

and New Zealand. It was a measure of India’s strate-

prosperity and security for all required ‘a common

gic autonomy that its strategic partnership with Russia

rules-based order’ established through dialogue. This

had matured to be ‘special and privileged’. At the

must equally apply to all countries individually as well

same time, India’s global strategic partnership with

as to ‘the global commons’. According to Modi, ‘such an

the United States had assumed ‘new significance’. An

order must believe in sovereignty and territorial integ-

important pillar of this partnership is their ‘shared

rity, as well as equality of all nations, irrespective of size

vision of an open, stable, secure and prosperous Indo-

and strength’. He envisages all giving consent to such

Pacific region’.

rules, rather than ‘the power of the few’ being the basis.

Keynote address

17

Another critical element is regional countries’ ‘equal

such democratic ideals as defining India; they also

access, as a right under international law, to the use of

‘shape the way we engage the world’. In Hindi, these

common spaces on the sea and in the air’. This, Modi

ideals were the five ‘S’s: samman (respect); samvad

believes, requires ‘freedom of navigation, unimpeded

(dialogue); sahayog (cooperation); shanti (peace); and

commerce and peaceful settlement of disputes’.

samriddhi (prosperity). Therefore, India would engage

The fifth element is the need for a ‘rules-based, open, balanced and stable trade environment for

with the world ‘in peace, with respect, through dialogue and absolute commitment to international law’.

the Indo-Pacific’ in a time of growing protectionism,

Modi noted that in view of the ‘shifts in global

even though all have benefited from concomitant

power, change in the character of the global economy

globalisation. Modi stressed that this is important,

and daily disruption in technology’, the global status

and even expected, from the Regional Comprehensive

quo appeared ‘shaken’ and the future ‘less certain’.

Economic Partnership (RCEP).

He said that ‘international norms’ were superseded by

The final element – connectivity – is vital. Modi

‘assertion of power’, and warned that Asia must not

said this ‘unites a region’, even more so than it

return to the age of great-power rivalries. This would

provides a boost to prosperity and trade. There are

hold everyone back; only ‘an Asia of cooperation will

many ‘connectivity initiatives’ in the region, which

shape this century’. Consequently each nation must

rely upon the building of infrastructure but also

ask itself whether it is working towards creating a

trust. Furthermore, these initiatives ‘must be based

‘more united world’ or ‘forcing new divisions’. Modi

on respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity,

believes it is possible to rise above divisions and

consultation, good governance, transparency, viability

competition to work together: ‘competition is normal,

and sustainability’. The prime minister insisted

but contests must not turn into conflicts; differences

they must empower nations and promote trade, not

must not be allowed to become disputes’.

place them under an ‘impossible debt burden’, nor encourage strategic competition.

Modi highlighted ASEAN as an example and inspiration in relation to this emphatic belief in the ability

The prime minister emphasised that India’s

to work together. Currently, ‘ASEAN has united ten

engagement in the Indo-Pacific region is inclusive.

countries behind a common purpose’, and such unity

India’s Vedanta philosophy speaks of the ‘essential

is ‘essential for a stable future of this region’. He high-

oneness of all and celebrates unity in diversity’. This

lighted the role of Singapore, which prospered as a

was the foundation of India’s ethos – ‘of pluralism,

sovereign country thanks to open oceans, the preva-

coexistence, openness and dialogue’. Modi understood

lent rule of law and a stable region.

18

The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

Keynote address

19

20

The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

IISS Shangri-La Dialogue 17TH ASIA SECURITY SUMMIT SINGAPORE, 1–3 JUNE 2018

CHAPTER 2 US leadership and the challenges of Indo-Pacific security

FIRST PLENARY SESSION Saturday 2 June 2018, 08:30 SPEAKER General (Retd) James Mattis Secretary of Defense, United States

FIRST PLENARY SESSION

US leadership and the challenges of Indo-Pacific security General (Retd) James Mattis, Secretary of Defense, United States

United States Secretary of Defense James Mattis

former codifies principles as Washington continues to

opened his remarks emphasising the importance of the

‘look west’. This strategy sees the deepening of alli-

Shangri-La Dialogue and thanking the IISS for provid-

ances and partnerships as a priority, emphasises the

ing ‘the best opportunity for senior officials to meet,

centrality of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations

share perspectives and reinforce the significance of a

(ASEAN), and seeks cooperation with China, wherever

free and open Indo-Pacific region’. He stated that the

possible. The US will also continue to deepen its engage-

Trump administration’s strategy ‘espouses the shared

ment with ‘existing regional mechanisms’. The United

principles that underpin a free and open Indo-Pacific’,

States’ Indo-Pacific strategy makes significant security,

and found commonality with Indian Prime Minister

economic and development investments in support

Narendra Modi’s commitment to shared values as

of a ‘safe, secure, prosperous and free Indo-Pacific’

the foundation upon which the countries of the Indo-

based on shared principles with allies and partners.

Pacific would build a shared destiny. Mattis stressed

These nations believe that their future is contained in

that the US aims ‘to build an Indo-Pacific where sov-

principles such as respect for nations’ sovereignty and

ereignty and territorial integrity are safeguarded’. He

independence; freedom of navigation and overflight;

underscored Washington’s commitment to remain in

the peaceful resolution of disputes, without coercion;

the Indo-Pacific, given that its interests and those of

trade and investment, both fair and reciprocal; and the

the region are ‘inextricably intertwined’.

observance of globally held rules and norms.

Mattis said that the United States’ Indo-Pacific strat-

Mattis highlighted four areas of US Indo-Pacific

egy is a ‘subset’ of its ‘broader security strategy’; the

strategy which would bring to light US ‘strengths and

22

The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

General (Retd) James Mattis, Secretary of Defense, United States and Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS

advantages’ and breathe new life into ‘areas of under-

jammers – which are tied directly to ‘military use for

investment’. In the maritime space, Washington seeks

the purposes of intimidation and coercion’. This is in

to preserve the common good by helping partners

‘direct contradiction’ of President Xi Jinping’s assur-

build up capabilities to ‘improve monitoring and pro-

ance in September 2015 that China would not militarise

tection of maritime borders and interests’. To enhance

the artificial features in the area. As a result, the US

inter-operability with allies and partners, the US will

has disinvited the People’s Liberation Army Navy

continue to ensure integration by the financing and

from the 2018 Rim of the Pacific exercise (RIMPAC),

sales of US defence equipment, as well as opening up

given that it is based on transparency and coopera-

US professional military education to militaries from the

tion. Despite this, Mattis said the US will continue to

Indo-Pacific. Washington will continue to strengthen the

pursue a ‘constructive, results-oriented relationship

‘rule of law, civil society and transparent governance’,

with China’.

and to drive private-sector-led economic development,

Mattis stressed that any Indo-Pacific order will

recognising the region’s need for greater investment,

have a role for China. Therefore, the US – as a Pacific

including in infrastructure. As such, the US will reinvig-

nation – remains committed to building a shared des-

orate its development and finance institutions, allowing

tiny for the region. The US, he said, offers ‘strategic

them to be more responsive.

partnerships, not strategic dependence’. This entails

Mattis said that a central element of US strat-

maintaining the region’s security, stability and its

egy was to strengthen alliances and partnerships,

economic prosperity – a view that Mattis assured

through addressing common challenges, enhancing

‘transcends America’s political transitions and will

shared capabilities, increasing defence investment and

continue to enjoy Washington’s strong bipartisan

improving inter-operability. On China, Mattis said that

support’, echoing his remarks at the 16th Shangri-La

Washington was prepared to support China’s ‘choices’

Dialogue in 2017 when he also worked to allay doubts

– if they ‘promote long-term peace and prosperity’

as to the Trump administration’s reliability. Mattis

for the region. However, the defence secretary was

went on to echo remarks made by President Donald

explicit with regards to China’s militarisation of the

Trump in Da Nang in 2017: ‘We will never ask our

South China Sea – including the deployment of anti-

partners to surrender their sovereignty or intellectual

ship missiles, surface-to-air missiles and electronic

property. We don’t dream of domination’.

First plenary session

23

Josh Rogin, Political Analyst, CNN; Columnist, Washington Post

Dr Sylvia Yazid, Head, International Relations, Parahyangan Catholic University, Indonesia

Senior Colonel Zhao Xiaozhuo, Director, Center on China–American Defense Relations, Academy of Military Science, People’s Liberation Army, China

QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS

ous provocation’. Marc Champion from Bloomberg

At the 2017 Shangri-La Dialogue, Secretary Mattis was

asked whether the ‘ship had sailed’, given China’s

questioned intensively about the variance between

establishment of military assets on the island features.

his inclusive vision on allied relations and the sharp

Dr Jeffrey Ordaniel from the Pacific Forum of the

rhetoric of the president he served. This was repeated

Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)

in 2018. Josh Rogin, political analyst at CNN and

– and Southeast Asian Young Leaders’ Programme

Washington Post columnist, asked whether the US was

(SEAYLP) delegate – asked whether Filipino public

doing China’s work, given that Beijing sought to sepa-

vessels and Philippines-occupied features in the South

rate the US from its allies. Mattis said this was not the

China Sea are covered by the 1951 US–Philippines

case, due to the fact that the US and its allies and part-

Mutual Defense Treaty. In response to these questions,

ners share common values and mutual respect. While

Mattis emphasised the United States’ compliance with

the US might have taken some ‘unusual approaches’,

the rulings of international tribunals which supported

shared values will push relationships with allies and

the right of nations to transit international airspace and

partners further. Dr Sylvia Yazid, the head of interna-

waters. The US view is the traditional rule of law, not

tional relations at Parahyangan Catholic University,

a ‘revisionist’ one, consistent with the UN Convention

asked about the US approach to helping countries fill

on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). He added that there

capability gaps. Mattis explained that in the past, the

will be ‘consequences to China ignoring the interna-

US had adopted a detached and dogmatic approach

tional community’ on the South China Sea. As for US

to such issues; the current approach is to work with

commitments to the Philippines, Mattis said that the

partners to address gaps in capabilities and share les-

US had to adhere to confidentiality at times, while set-

sons learnt, particularly where high-end capabilities

ting conditions for the path ahead without ‘locking’

are concerned. This is done with due respect for the

itself into public statements which could be dissected

ally’s sovereignty.

by observers.

There was much interest shown in the dispute over

There was significant discussion of the Democratic

the South China Sea. Senior Colonel Zhao Xiaozhuo

People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), as the Dialogue

from

Defense

was held just prior to the summit in Singapore between

Relations, Academy of Military Science, challenged

the US and the DPRK. Hiroyuki Akita from the Nikkei

Mattis about the US violating China’s territorial waters

Asian Review asked whether the US would reduce or

and its contiguous zone, which Zhao termed an ‘obvi-

withdraw its military from the Korean Peninsula if

24

the

Center

on

China–American

The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

Dr Jeffrey Ordaniel, International Security Research Fellow, Pacific Forum, Center for Strategic and International Studies

Hiroyuki Akita, Commentator, Nikkei Asian Review

Marc Champion, Senior Correspondent, International Affairs, Bloomberg

there was progress in talks between South and North

in discussions with North Korea. He downplayed the

Korea, and whether the US would still retain its policy

military dimensions of the problem, instead emphasis-

of ‘maximum pressure’ on Pyongyang. Mattis said

ing that US policy was diplomatically led, and would

that the issue of troop withdrawal would not come up

continue to be so.

First plenary session

25

26

The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

IISS Shangri-La Dialogue 17TH ASIA SECURITY SUMMIT SINGAPORE, 1–3 JUNE 2018

CHAPTER 3 De-escalating the North Korean crisis

SECOND PLENARY SESSION Saturday 2 June 2018, 09:30 SPEAKERS Song Young-moo Minister of National Defense, Republic of Korea Itsunori Onodera Minister of Defense, Japan Harjit Singh Sajjan Minister of National Defence, Canada

SECOND PLENARY SESSION

De-escalating the North Korean crisis

Song Young-moo, Minister of National Defense, Republic of Korea

Leading off the second plenary session, Republic

worthy of a Nobel Prize for President Trump, with his-

of Korea (ROK) Minister of National Defense Song

toric significance comparable to the 1989 Malta Summit

Young-moo called for the denuclearisation of the

between the Soviet Union and the US that marked the

Korean Peninsula and for peace and prosperity in the

beginning of the end of the Cold War. Moreover, if

Asia-Pacific. The peninsula was at a turning point,

North Korea pursues genuine reforms to open up its

and moving beyond a decades-long military stand-

country, as suggested by its ‘Economy-First Policy’, this

off. ROK President Moon Jae-in’s efforts in bringing

will add to the ‘vibrant energy’ of the Asia-Pacific econ-

North Korea to the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics

omy and lead to a ‘path of shared prosperity’ for all.

had created an atmosphere of peace that led to a his-

In fulfilling the Moon administration’s vision of

toric summit inside the demilitarised zone (DMZ). The

‘peaceful coexistence’ and ‘joint prosperity’ in the

Panmunjom Declaration took the first step towards

Korean Peninsula, Song said the ROK will exert the

denuclearisation and establishment of a permanent

utmost effort to achieve ‘inter-Korean reconciliation

peace regime.

and cooperation’. In recognition of the differences

Anticipating the upcoming United States–North

between the two Koreas, the ROK will maintain its

Korea summit in Singapore, Song praised US President

stance of ‘three noes’: ‘no desire for the North’s col-

Donald Trump’s strong leadership in ‘setting the cur-

lapse, no pursuit of unification by absorption and no

rent atmosphere of dialogue’. He hoped that Trump

pursuit of unification through artificial means’. Song

and Chairman Kim Jong-un would reach an agreement

said he will hold consultations with North Korean

28

The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

Itsunori Onodera, Minister of Defense, Japan

counterparts on ceasing all acts of hostility and trans-

Korea should not be rewarded solely for agreeing to

forming the DMZ into a peace zone. The two sides

a dialogue. It is essential that the international defence

would take ‘gradual, step-by-step approaches to alle-

community maintains ‘maximum pressure’ until

viate the military tension and build trust’.

North Korea completes the process of CVID for all

Japanese Minister of Defense Itsunori Onodera

WMDs and ballistic missiles of all ranges, he said. One

called the North Korean situation the ‘most crucial

avenue to achieve this is continued efforts to prevent

and imminent topic within the current security envi-

North Korea’s illegal ship-to-ship transfer of oil and

ronment’. Among the many ballistic missiles North

other goods, as it attempts to evade United Nations

Korea has launched in the past two years, many have

Security Council sanctions. Onodera explained that

landed in Japan’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ) and

the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force and the Japan

two have flown over Japan. The changes in North

Coast Guard have conducted monitoring and surveil-

Korea’s rhetoric and behaviour since the beginning

lance. Since April, patrol aircraft of Australia, Canada

of this year are the result of concerted international

and the US engaged in multinational surveillance

pressure. He expressed respect for the efforts made

activities operating out of Okinawa, and a British

by President Moon and Minster of National Defense

Royal Navy warship carried out an information-gath-

Song in achieving the Panmunjom Declaration on the

ering mission. Deterrence must also be maintained

complete denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula.

and strengthened, Onodera said. Japan is ‘working

The US–North Korea summit was now an opportunity

to build up defence capabilities, strengthen vigilance

for ‘concrete, substantial progress towards a complete,

and surveillance against ballistic missiles, and with

verifiable and irreversible dismantlement (CVID) of all

the Japan–US alliance at the core, enhance collabora-

North Korea’s weapons of mass destruction (WMDs)

tion with countries such as South Korea and Australia

including biological and chemical weapons and bal-

through joint exercises and other means’.

listic missiles of all flight ranges, in addition to a breakthrough in the Japanese abduction issue’.

In addition to the issue of North Korea, nations in the Indo-Pacific region must address various risks

Over the past 25 years, North Korea has repeatedly

of a geopolitical and geo-economic nature, including

declared it would denuclearise, ‘only to turn around

natural disasters. Japan engages in capacity-building

to void all international efforts toward peace’. In light

assistance with the Association of Southeast Asian

of this past behaviour, Onodera stated that North

Nations (ASEAN) and other countries in the field of

Second plenary session

29

Harjit Singh Sajjan, Minister of National Defence, Canada

humanitarian assistance and disaster relief. He looked

QUESTION AND ANSWERS

to the day when North Korea can be included in the

Most of the questions focused on the meaning and

circle of kizuna (‘comradeship’ in Japanese) for mutual

implications of the ‘denuclearisation’ goal. Fleur de

assistance when tragedies strike, such as the 2016

Villiers, chair of the IISS Trustees, asked if using the

typhoon that claimed ‘precious lives’ there.

term mimicked previously adopted North Korean

Canada’s Minister of National Defence Harjit

semantics; Executive Director at IISS–Americas

Singh Sajjan called for a diplomatic solution to

Mark Fitzpatrick asked if Minister Song believed

instability on the Korean Peninsula. In the face of

North Korea would give up its nuclear weapons;

North Korea’s aggressive actions, the international

Professor Jaeho Hwang of South Korea’s Hankuk

community has responded with a unified voice and

University of Foreign Studies posed a similar ques-

strong support for a maximum-pressure campaign to

tion about North Korean sincerity; Dr Robert Kelly

encourage North Korea to commit to the CVID of its

of Pusan National University asked if an outcome

nuclear- and ballistic-missile programmes. Anything

less than CVID would be acceptable. Richard Lloyd

short of this is unacceptable, he said. Sajjan asserted

Parry of The Times asked if the US had given assur-

that a nuclear North Korea is ‘not only a regional

ances it would not accept North Korea retaining

threat, it poses a real and growing global threat’ and

shorter-range missiles; Colonel Liu Lin of the People

may embolden other nations to attempt to develop

Liberation Army’s Academy of Military Science

nuclear weapons. Another concern is the risk of North

asked how divergent paths toward denuclearisation

Korea disseminating nuclear material and expertise.

would be handled; and Ankit Panda of The Diplomat

Sajjan explained that nations like Canada with

asked if US troops would leave under the envisioned

‘more developed structures must provide assistance

peace regime, as suggested by an adviser to the South

to others in enhancing their infrastructure and regula-

Korean president.

tory frameworks’, and that all should work together

In response, Song insisted a CVID promise needs to

to share information regarding sanction-evasion

be achieved and said North Korea would then have no

activities. Canada has also deployed a ‘long-range

need for even short-range systems. For Pyongyang, he

maritime-patrol aircraft for surveillance as part of the

said denuclearisation means removing nuclear threats

international effort to locate and expose sanction-eva-

that exist around the Korean Peninsula. Raising suspi-

sion activities on the high seas’.

cions about North Korea’s intentions hinders the goal

30

The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

Fleur de Villiers, Chair of the Trustees, IISS

Mark Fitzpatrick, Executive Director, IISS–Americas; Director, Non-Proliferation and Nuclear Policy Programme, IISS

Professor Jaeho Hwang, Dean, International Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies

of denuclearisation and the economic development

journal’, which do not reflect the views of President

and free society to which Kim aspires, he added. Even

Moon or the Ministry of National Defense.

though North Korea has ‘tricked’ South Korea before,

Onodera addressed the role played by China in

this does not mean it would do so in the future. Kim

resolving issues on the Korean Peninsula. He said

wants economic reform, to improve living standards

North Korea’s change in policy was the result of UN

and to become a responsible member of the interna-

Security Council sanctions, which involved China, and

tional community while maintaining his regime. The

had a particular impact as it is North Korea’s ‘larg-

status of US forces in South Korea is a separate issue

est partner’. In response to a question from Professor

from North Korea’s nuclear question, relating to the

Hwang about the proper prioritisation of North

need for ROK–US defence preparedness to guarantee

Korean challenges, Onodera said in addition to the

regional security. Song alluded to the personal com-

nuclear and missile issues, Japan is keen to also resolve

ments in this regard of a ‘certain professor’ in a ‘certain

the abduction issue.

Dr Robert Kelly, Professor, Political Science, Pusan National University

Richard Lloyd Parry, Asia Editor, The Times

Colonel Liu Lin, Associate Research Fellow, College of War Studies, Academy of Military Science, People’s Liberation Army, China

Ankit Panda, Senior Editor, The Diplomat

Second plenary session

31

32

The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

IISS Shangri-La Dialogue 17TH ASIA SECURITY SUMMIT SINGAPORE, 1–3 JUNE 2018

CHAPTER 4 Shaping Asia’s evolving security order

THIRD PLENARY SESSION Saturday 2 June 2018, 11:30 SPEAKERS General Ngô Xuân Lich Minister of National Defence, Vietnam General (Retd) Ryamizard Ryacudu Minister of Defense, Indonesia Marise Payne Minister for Defence, Australia

THIRD PLENARY SESSION

Shaping Asia’s evolving security order

General Ngô Xuân Lich, Minister of National Defence, Vietnam

The Minister of National Defence of Vietnam General

In this regard, General Lich said that the Association

Ngô Xuân Lich noted that traditional and non-tra-

of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) provided a

ditional security challenges are now integral to the

model of regional cooperation and integration, such

geopolitical landscape of the Asia-Pacific. Even as

that it played a ‘positive and central’ role for shoring

the centre of the world’s geopolitical power moves

up stability in the broader Asia-Pacific. As ASEAN

towards the broader Indo-Pacific, General Lich urged

chair in 2020, Vietnam will put forward two documents

all parties involved in the Korean Peninsula to act

– a vision statement of the ASEAN Defence Ministers’

responsibly for the ‘peace, security and denuclearisa-

Meeting Plus (ADMM-Plus) and one focused on pro-

tion’ of the peninsula and resolve all disagreements

moting ASEAN centrality. General Lich said that no

and disputes through dialogue.

country should make excuses for the militarisation of

To promote regional peace and security, General Lich noted that several components were needed.

the South China Sea, since such activities are a serious breach to the sovereignty of other countries.

Regional security architecture must adhere to interna-

The minister said that the troubles in the Asia-

tional laws and the Charter of the United Nations. All

Pacific could only bring countries closer together. He

countries need to build mutual trust through consul-

concluded the presentation with a quote from Ho Chi

tation, information exchange and joint activities. They

Minh: ‘Security and freedom can only be guaranteed

also need to shoulder joint responsibility for regional

by the independence of each country from any major

peace and continue to expand and diversify various

powers and by the voluntary cooperation of each

defence, security and political cooperation mechanisms.

country with all other major powers’.

34

The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

General (Retd) Ryamizard Ryacudu, Minister of Defense, Indonesia

General (Retd) Ryamizard Ryacudu, defence

fight against terrorism. General Ryacudu said the

minister of Indonesia, noted that contemporary

three key areas of ASEAN maritime cooperation – the

threats, such as radical separatism, armed rebellion

Malacca Strait Patrol, maritime cooperation in the Gulf

and piracy, do not respect state boundaries and are

of Thailand and the trilateral cooperation in the Sulu

by nature not predictable. General Ryacudu said that

Sea – should be expanded to include other ASEAN

it was regrettable that Indonesia suffered a terrorist

countries and ASEAN partners, such as the United

attack in Surabaya, just prior to the IISS Shangri-La

States, Australia and Japan.

Dialogue. He stressed that the attacks, which were

General Ryacudu said that it is important to dis-

carried out by an entire family, including a mother

cuss the need for a geostrategic collaboration concept,

and her children, did not represent Islam. He noted

under the rubric of a regional practical security plat-

that the ideology espoused by such terrorists is con-

form. This should involve all like-minded countries

trary to the tenets of Islam.

across the Indo-Pacific. Concrete forms of cooperation

The defence minister noted that the ‘third gen-

would include joint maritime-security exercises, the

eration’ terrorist threat stemmed from its globalising

exchange of information and inter-operability protocol

nature, in particular, the movement of fighters of the

schemes. These forms of cooperation will enhance the

Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, from the

regional architecture based on the ASEAN Regional

Middle East to Africa and East Asia. There was a press-

Forum, East Asia Summit, the ADMM-Plus, the

ing need to track such movements and destroy their

Raisina Dialogue and the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue.

associated networks. At a regional level, Indonesia,

Australian Minister of Defence Marise Payne

Malaysia and the Philippines have taken concrete

reminded delegates about the strategic importance of

measures by establishing a trilateral cooperation plat-

the Indo-Pacific, a region that contributes two-thirds

form in the Sulu Sea, which involves joint air and sea

of global growth and accounts for 44% of global GDP.

patrols and, in the future, joint patrols on land.

The region also saw diverse challenges, including Sino-

To further strengthen the system of early surveillance and detection of ISIS threats, the three countries

American differences over trade, the security situation on the Korean Peninsula and territorial disputes.

have also launched a new collaborative initiative.

Payne said that ‘four overarching considerations’

The ‘Our Eyes’ system of intelligence exchange will

are critical in the fluid Indo-Pacific security landscape.

strengthen regional resilience and cooperation in the

Regional actors need to remember that the regional

Third plenary session

35

Marise Payne, Minister for Defence, Australia

stability enjoyed in the past 50 years did not come

working with other close partners. Canberra’s 2017

about by chance, but through design and negotiation.

Foreign Policy White Paper and 2016 Defence White

In this ASEAN has played a key role, and Australia,

Paper have demonstrated the country’s commitment

as ASEAN’s first dialogue partner, stands committed

to a rules-based security order in the Indo-Pacific.

to the ASEAN principles of mutual respect, freedom

A sustained preservation of the rules-based global

from external interference and the peaceful settlement

order will continue to ensure stability and prosperity

of disputes. She added that strategic competition has

in the future.

to be bound by rules, such as the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). All countries should note that disruptive changes in international relations,

QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS

particularly when imposed on others, creates instabil-

Dr Michael Fullilove, executive director of the Lowy

ity. Any ‘might is right’ approach is contrary to the

Institute, asked what role middle powers could play

interest of all nations.

to support the rules-based global order at a time

When the rights of all sovereign nations are pro-

when support from China and the US is receding. Dr

tected and encouraged, all countries will benefit most

Rommel Banlaoi from the Center for Intelligence and

from a stable regional order. As a nation, Australia

National Security Studies queried whether the three

is committed to addressing contemporary threats,

countries in the Our Eyes initiative were meeting regu-

such as terrorism and North Korea’s illegal ballis-

larly to exchange intelligence information. Alexander

tic and nuclear-weapons programmes. Canberra has

Neill, IISS Shangri-La Dialogue Senior Fellow for Asia-

deployed a P-8 Poseidon maritime-surveillance aircraft

Pacific Security, asked how the Indo-Pacific concept

to support the international community’s enforcement

features in Vietnam and Indonesia’s defence policies.

of UN Security Council sanctions on North Korea. It

Major-General (Retd) Yao Yunzhu from the Academy

has also assisted the government of the Philippines in

of Military Science (China) questioned whether the

its campaign against terrorists in Marawi in the second

ministers crafted their defence policies based on the

half of 2017.

Indo-Pacific as a geographical and natural concept, or

Payne said that Canberra’s Trilateral Strategic

based on the Indo-Pacific as a strategic concept that

Dialogue with the United States and Japan is well

has coherent policies across the vast area from Africa

established, and that Australia is ‘always open’ to

to the shores of the Americas.

36

The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

Dr Michael Fullilove, Executive Director, Lowy Institute for International Policy

Dr Rommel Banlaoi, Director, Center for Intelligence and National Security Studies; Chairman, Philippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Research

General Ryacudu said he had met his Singaporean, Australian, Malaysian and Filipino counterparts about

Alexander Neill, Shangri-La Dialogue Senior Fellow for Asia-Pacific Security, IISS–Asia

Major-General (Retd) Yao Yunzhu, Director Emeritus, Center on China–American Defense Relations, Academy of Military Science, People’s Liberation Army, China

study the Indo-Pacific concept and adapt its defence policies based on it.

the Our Eyes initiative. The US had expressed sup-

Payne said that there was a ‘massive underes-

port for the initiative, and the three Our Eyes countries

timation’ about the capacity of middle powers to

continued to communicate, coordinate and exchange

work together to protect the rules-based global order.

information. Building on this information-sharing net-

Components of the regional architecture include the

work, Indonesia would seek to design and deliberate

ADMM-Plus, the Five Power Defence Arrangements

on its defence strategy as it studies and examines the

and the South Pacific Defence Ministers’ Meeting.

new Indo-Pacific concept.

These groupings have helped countries to develop

General Lich said that ASEAN had played a

habits of cooperation and inter-operability. For

central role in the promotion of peace and stability

its part, Australia has ramped up its international

in the region. The grouping, however, continues to

engagement in the defence area. In 2017, it sent out

face new challenges and new levels of complexity.

a large task group into the region – the biggest in

General Lich said that Hanoi supported the concept

40 years. The task group carried out six major exer-

of the Indo-Pacific. He added that he had met with

cises, more than a dozen port visits and a number of

his US counterpart James Mattis, who had called

smaller engagements. Canberra will also work on the

on countries to include the Indo-Pacific concept in

Australia–Japan–United States trilateral arrangement

their policies. Furthermore, Vietnam will continue to

to maximise cohesion.

Third plenary session

37

38

The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

CHAPTER 5

17TH ASIA SECURITY SUMMIT SINGAPORE, 1–3 JUNE 2018

SIMULTANEOUS SPECIAL SESSIONS Saturday 2 June 2018 Session 1 New strategic technologies and the future of conflict Session 2 Enhancing maritime security: codes of conduct and confidence-building measures Session 3 The security and humanitarian crisis in Myanmar’s Rakhine State Session 4 Competition and cooperation in the Indian Ocean Region Session 5 Strategic implications of military capability development in the Asia-Pacific Session 6 Managing competition in regional security cooperation

SPECIAL SESSION 1

New strategic technologies and the future of conflict

CHAIR The emergence of digital technologies, a blurring of

Sean Kanuck Director of Cyber, Space and Future Conflict, IISS

boundaries between war and peace and the implications of artificial intelligence (AI) were explored in a

OPENING REMARKS

wide-ranging special session. Susan Gordon noted

Susan Gordon

that the ubiquity of advanced technology coupled

Principal Deputy Director of National Intelligence, US David Koh Tee Hian

with digital connectivity offered the potential for ‘both good and mischief’. She identified the potential for

Deputy Secretary (Special Projects); Defence Cyber

AI-based systems to ‘get inside’ the observe, orient,

Chief, Ministry of Defence, Singapore

decide, act (OODA) cycle of an opponent. AI, however,

General Sir Gordon Messenger Vice Chief of the Defence Staff, Ministry of Defence, UK Rose Gottemoeller Deputy Secretary General, NATO

is not a ‘replacement for humans’. She also highlighted that AI ‘algorithmic assurance’ needs more investment. David Koh Tee Hian noted that as the cyber domain grows in importance, institutions will start outsourcing ‘aspects of decision-making’ to AI. For policymakers, the key decision will be determining the level of human control necessary. At the same time, the risks of ‘destabilisation and miscalculation’ from such technologies will need to be reduced.

General Sir Gordon Messenger said threats and technologies are ‘changing at a pace’ that necessitates

40

The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

Susan Gordon, Principal Deputy Director of National Intelligence, US

David Koh Tee Hian, Deputy Secretary (Special Projects); Defence Cyber Chief, Ministry of Defence, Singapore

Rose Gottemoeller, Deputy Secretary General, NATO

Sean Kanuck, Director of Cyber, Space and Future Conflict, IISS

General Sir Gordon Messenger, Vice Chief of the Defence Staff, UK

the rethinking of ‘the use of the military instru-

The discussion that followed focused on whether

ment’. As such, two areas require change. Firstly, the

AI in the future could be used to manipulate human

‘blurred boundary between peace and war’ means

policymakers, given that their ‘inherent conserva-

that the traditional notion of deterrence has to be

tism’ prevents them from escalating a situation to

reconsidered. Nations needed to ‘display more agil-

‘kinetic warfare’. Gordon said that cyber actors are

ity and adaptability’. Secondly, future success in

‘getting more brazen’ and policymakers will need

warfare will be determined by the ability to turn

vision and imagination to respond in such situations.

data and information into ‘faster, smarter decision-

Koh said that in such uncharted territory, policy-

making’, which in turn might become a nation’s

makers will need to deal with such problems at the

strongest deterrent. Rose Gottemoeller said that

cognitive, policy and social levels. Air Commodore

essentially all contemporary conflicts had a substan-

(Retd) Khalid Banuri of Joint Staff Headquarters

tial ‘asymmetric’, or ‘hybrid’, dimension. She said

(Pakistan), asked about the adherence to and devel-

that the rules-based order has brought ‘security and

opment of norms in the cyber domain. Gottemoeller

prosperity for decades’; therefore, ‘the challenge

was dismissive of such an approach, and suggested

posed by misuse of information technology is very

that we ‘forget about cyber arms-control treaties’

real’. Disinformation campaigns are ‘part and parcel’

and instead focus on codes of conduct as a credible

of the new forms of hybrid attacks seen by NATO.

starting point.

Special session 1

41

SPECIAL SESSION 2

Enhancing maritime security: codes of conduct and confidence-building measures

CHAIR

Panellists agreed that the potential for confronta-

Nick Childs

tion and escalation in the Indo-Pacific had increased,

Senior Fellow for Naval Forces and Maritime Security,

commensurate with increased militarisation, coercive

IISS

behaviour and higher levels of maritime crime. Central themes discussed were adherence to international law,

OPENING REMARKS

a rules-based maritime order and the need to preserve

Lieutenant-General Takashi Motomatsu

a stable maritime global commons. For Japan, asserted

Vice Chief of Staff, Joint Staff, Japan Self-Defense

Lieutenant-General Takashi Motomatsu, this meant

Forces

the adoption and promotion of a ‘free and open Indo-

Lieutenant-General Nguyen Duc Hai

Pacific’, adherence to the United Nations Convention

Director, Institute for Defence Strategic Studies,

on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and the development

Ministry of National Defence, Vietnam

of codes of conduct. However, Lieutenant-General

Rear Admiral Donald Gabrielson

Nguyen Duc Hai warned that maritime security

Commander, Logistics Group Western Pacific; Task

had become more complicated, and thus threatened

Force 73; Singapore Area Coordinator, US Navy

regional stability. Rear Admiral Donald Gabrielson

Rear Admiral Lew Chuen Hong

said such confidence-building measures are an apt

Chief of Navy, Singapore

demonstration of a rules-based order. The underlying context for this is the need for stability and mutual trust, particularly given the rapid rise in maritime traffic in recent years. This was echoed by Rear Admiral

42

The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

Lieutenant-General Takashi Motomatsu, Vice Chief of Staff, Joint Staff, Japan Self-Defense Forces

Lieutenant-General Nguyen Duc Hai, Director, Institute for Defence Strategic Studies, Ministry of National Defence, Vietnam

Rear Admiral Lew Chuen Hong, Chief of Navy, Singapore

Nick Childs, Senior Fellow for Naval Forces and Maritime Security, IISS

Rear Admiral Donald Gabrielson, Commander, Logistics Group Western Pacific; Task Force 73; Singapore Area Coordinator, US Navy

Lew Chuen Hong, who said that the need for norms

partnerships encouraging maritime-domain aware-

rested ‘on a deeper concept, the idea of a shared com-

ness. Gabrielson observed that confidence-building

mons’. In order to avoid ‘the tragedy of the commons’,

measures are required to prevent tactical events from

trust-building was fundamental.

having unintended strategic consequences, particu-

All panellists agreed that the establishment of

larly among military newcomers with differing levels

codes of conduct is an important confidence-building

of experience and expectation. Conversely, Colonel

measure. However, such codes alone are insufficient

Liu Lin of the Academy of Military Science, the

to build trust – the framework for the South China

People’s Liberation Army (PLA), asked to what kind

Sea Code of Conduct between the Association of

of rules and norms actors should adhere. Amid the

Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and China in

relative stability of the South China Sea, Liu argued,

2017 demonstrated goodwill but required more

the problem between China and other claimants in

work. The second key message of the discussion was

essence concerned ‘territorial sovereignty and mari-

therefore the need for relationship-building, open-

time delimitation’. Lew said that the inclusion of

ness and transparency. Motomatsu said that Japan

China as an ‘engaged member’ in furthering rules

had embarked upon joint exercises and multilateral

and norms in the region should be welcomed.

Special session 2

43

SPECIAL SESSION 3

The security and humanitarian crisis in Myanmar’s Rakhine State

CHAIR

Introducing the panel, Sarah Raine noted the ‘extraor-

Sarah Raine

dinary complexity and sensitivity’ of the crisis afflicting

Consulting Senior Fellow for Geopolitics and

northern Rakhine. U Thaung Tun said the session was

Strategy, IISS

timely, given the risk of renewed ‘inter-communal violence’ and the monsoon’s impact on displaced people

OPENING REMARKS

from Rakhine in Bangladesh. In his view, much of the

U Thaung Tun

narrative regarding the crisis was ‘incomplete and

Union Minister for the Office of the Union

misleading’, and that the ‘root cause’ was terrorism.

Government and National Security Advisor,

Myanmar had ‘fully abided’ by its November 2017

Myanmar

agreement with Bangladesh on the return of displaced people, he said, but the process had ‘stalled’. He was

Peter Maurer President, International Committee of the Red Cross Jean-Christophe Belliard

hopeful that Myanmar’s agreement to sign a memorandum of understanding two days earlier with the Office

Deputy Secretary General, Political Affairs; Political

of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees

Director, European External Action Service,

(UNHCR) and UN Development Programme (UNDP)

European Union

would help facilitate repatriation.

Peter Maurer said the immediate emergency was compounding structural challenges, risking a ‘protracted conflict’. The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) is focused on mitigating violence

44

The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

U Thaung Tun, Union Minister for the Office of the Union Government and National Security Advisor, Myanmar

Peter Maurer, President, International Committee of the Red Cross

Jean-Christophe Belliard, Deputy Secretary General, Political Affairs; Political Director, European External Action Service, European Union

Sarah Raine, Consulting Senior Fellow for Geopolitics and Strategy, IISS

and protecting affected populations. Sustainable solu-

targeted army personnel who had perpetrated ‘atroci-

tions are needed, he said, but in the meantime, the

ties’. Belliard concluded that there was a danger of

majority of people displaced to Bangladesh are not

terrorist groups exploiting the crisis.

ready to return and needed to live in dignity. Maurer

In the discussion phase, Manopchai Vongphakdi,

added that Myanmar needed support in implement-

Thailand’s ambassador to Singapore, remarked that

ing the recommendations set out by the Advisory

Bangkok had welcomed recent ‘positive developments’,

Commission on Rakhine State, and it was impor-

notably the establishment of the independent commission

tant that security operations abided by international

to investigate human-rights violations and the Myanmar

humanitarian law. Regional states also need to help

government’s agreement with UN agencies. Richard

resolve the crisis and aid refugees. Jean-Christophe

Lloyd Parry from The Times detailed the narrative from

Belliard said that the European Union was providing

the perspective of many governments and international

50% of international assistance to displaced people

organisations, which maintained that Myanmar’s armed

and local communities in Bangladesh, as well as sub-

forces had supported ‘ethnic cleansing’. U Thaung Tun

stantial development assistance to Myanmar. The EU

replied that if the security forces were found to ‘have

supported a ‘political process’ that would enable the

transgressed the rules of engagement’, action would be

return of those who left Rakhine. It has also reinforced

taken. However, he stated that the reason so many had

its arms embargo on Myanmar’s armed forces, and has

fled from Rakhine was fear caused by terrorists.

Special session 3

45

SPECIAL SESSION 4

Competition and cooperation in the Indian Ocean Region

CHAIR

The session focused on the need for cooperation in

Rahul Roy-Chaudhury

the Indian Ocean, amid the increasingly challenging

Senior Fellow for South Asia, IISS

strategic context of the Indo-Pacific. The panellists highlighted the plethora of security threats, which

OPENING REMARKS

the many subregional groupings and security actors

Macsuzy Mondon

ought to and could better address. There was qualified

Designated Minister and Minister for Local

optimism that local expressions of strategic behaviour,

Government and Home Affairs, Seychelles

which have already increasingly shaped global mari-

Kapila Waidyaratne Secretary of Defence, Sri Lanka Vice Admiral (Retd) Shekhar Sinha Director, India Foundation, India

time-security norms, could be managed.

Macsuzy Mondon called for greater maritimedomain awareness and security through information sharing, with the Seychelles already leading by example. There is a role for all countries with a military

Philip Barton Director General, Consular and Security, Foreign and

presence around and within the Indian Ocean rim,

Commonwealth Office, UK

Macsuzy said, including in successful counter-piracy

Senior Colonel Zhao Xiaozhuo

operations such as the Contact Group on Piracy off the

Director, Center on China–American Defense

Coast of Somalia. Kapila Waidyaratne called on ‘exist-

Relations, Academy of Military Science, People’s

ing multilateral mechanisms’ to strengthen regional

Liberation Army, China

governance, and for better cooperation between all maritime powers to avoid widening trust deficits at a

46

The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

Macsuzy Mondon, Designated Minister and Minister for Local Government and Home Affairs, Seychelles

Kapila Waidyaratne, Secretary of Defence, Sri Lanka

Vice Admiral (Retd) Shekhar Sinha, Director, India Foundation, India

Philip Barton, Director General, Consular and Security, Foreign and Commonwealth Office, UK

Senior Colonel Zhao Xiaozhuo, Director, Center on China–American Defense Relations, Academy of Military Science, People’s Liberation Army, China

Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, Senior Fellow for South Asia, IISS

time of regional-power fluctuations. Waidyaratne said

spoke of the need for ‘a unifying set of principles’

that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had rightly

which would in turn delineate the investment needed

called for inclusive cooperation.

for improved infrastructure and therefore connectiv-

Noting the United States military’s regional staying

ity. For Senior Colonel Zhao Xiaozhuo, competition

power, Vice Admiral (Retd) Shekhar Sinha high-

from China was overstated. Energy security, China’s

lighted that under Modi, India’s expansive maritime

Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the future of free-

outlook led to a naval-centric effort to secure India’s

dom of navigation require a peaceful and stable Indian

prosperity in the Indian Ocean Region. Yet above all

Ocean. Powers have differences, but their competition

cooperation, not competition, was key. The Indian

should be rendered benign.

Ocean Naval Symposium and Indian Ocean Rim

There was detailed discussion of the status of

Association need redefined roles to create a regional

the India–Pakistan Incidents at Sea Agreement and

security framework. Philip Barton spoke about the

upholding freedom of navigation. Joining the BRI was

United Kingdom’s global free-trading role, including

an economic opportunity offered by China as matter of

against piracy. Regional organisations needed to iden-

choice, Zhao insisted, replying to questions about the

tify their ‘organising vision’ and avoid overlaps which

BRI’s economic and security implications for second

make them ‘less than the sum of their parts’. Barton

and third parties.

Special session 4

47

SPECIAL SESSION 5

Strategic implications of military capability development in the Asia-Pacific

CHAIR

The fifth special session focused on the develop-

Dr Tim Huxley

ments of military capabilities in the Asia-Pacific, and

Executive Director, IISS–Asia

potential mechanisms to preserve stability in a fastchanging environment. Lieutenant-General He Lei

OPENING REMARKS

reminded delegates that Asia-Pacific states developed

Lieutenant-General He Lei

their military strengths because of the gap between

Deputy President, Academy of Military Sciences,

economic prosperity and unstable security. To address

People’s Liberation Army, China

this, China proposed building an improved regional

Lieutenant-General Angus Campbell

security architecture. He stated that the deployment of

Chief of the Defence Force (Designate), Australia

weapons on islands in the South China Sea is intended to defend China’s sovereignty, considering that these

Jody Thomas Deputy Minister of National Defence, Canada Senator Dan Sullivan Member, Committee on Armed Services, US Senate

are a part of China’s territory, but that the operation of aircraft and vessels in the adjacent air and waters amounted to militarisation.

According to Lieutenant-General Angus Campbell, the ‘modernisation of defence capabilities across the region’ could bring opportunities such as an improved ability to ‘respond collectively’ to common threats like terrorism, maritime-security issues, and humanitarian and natural disasters. Although investments in military

48

The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

Lieutenant-General He Lei, Deputy President, Academy of Military Sciences, People’s Liberation Army, China

Lieutenant-General Angus Campbell, Chief of the Defence Force (Designate), Australia

Senator Dan Sullivan, Member, Committee on Armed Services, US Senate

Dr Tim Huxley, Executive Director, IISS-Asia

Jody Thomas, Deputy Minister of National Defence, Canada

transformation can also manifest as strategic competi-

to militarise the area. He stated that freedom of navi-

tion which could lead to conflict, Campbell argued that

gation is beneficial to all nations, including China.

collective work could meet common challenges and

Sullivan also stressed that the United States was an

build transparency. Jody Thomas also insisted on the

Asia-Pacific state, and had pledged to increase defence

importance of transparency with regard to military

spending to US$716 billion for the next fiscal year.

capabilities – Canada, for example, had consulted its

In the discussion phase, delegates talked at length

citizens and partner countries in writing up its 2017

about China’s activities in the South China Sea

defence-policy paper. The regional security achieved

and Washington’s evolving Asia-Pacific policy. Dr

through transparency helps to sustain the rules-based

Johann Wadephul, deputy chairman of the Christian

international order. On the contrary, a lack of transpar-

Democratic

ency ‘can have an escalatory and destabilising effect on

Parliamentary Group for Foreign Affairs in the German

a region, leading to distrust, misperceptions and mis-

Bundestag, asked Sullivan about the capacity-building

communication, and possibly conflict’.

aspects of the Asia Reassurance Initiative Act. Sullivan

Union

and

Christian

Social

Union

For Senator Dan Sullivan, the construction of

replied that the initiative straddles three pillars – secu-

military infrastructure and the deployment of mis-

rity, economy and the rule of law – and focuses on

siles on South China Sea islands represented a break

issues like the freedom of navigation and the rules-

with Chinese President Xi Jinping’s 2015 promise not

based international order.

Special session 5

49

SPECIAL SESSION 6

Managing competition in regional security cooperation

CHAIR

This special session offered the chance to explore

Dr Kori Schake

the utility and function of the varied collaborative

Deputy Director-General, IISS

security initiatives that have proliferated across the region. Participants discussed the range of forums

OPENING REMARKS

within the region charged with addressing issues

Ron Mark

such as maritime security, and considered the chal-

Minister of Defence, New Zealand

lenge of de-confliction presented by this assorted and

General (Retd) Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan

overlapping security architecture. While proposing

Coordinating Minister for Maritime Affairs, Indonesia Vice Admiral Hervé de Bonnaventure

five principles for managing regional security cooperation, Ron Mark flagged his country’s imminent

Acting Director-General, International Relations and

publication of its updated defence policy and the

Strategy, Ministry of the Armed Forces, France

importance this would continue to attach to regional security cooperation. Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan reaf-

Manisha Singh Assistant Secretary, Bureau of Economic and

firmed his country’s commitment to the Association

Business Affairs, US Department of State

of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the search

Senior Colonel Zhou Bo

for ASEAN unity, arguing that there was no need to

Director, Security Cooperation Centre, Office for

prioritise one forum over the others since all had their

International Military Cooperation, Central Military

different angles and approaches. Vice Admiral Hervé

Commission, China

de Bonnaventure argued that successful multilateralism was based on interdependency, and focused his

50

The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

Ron Mark, Minister of Defence, New Zealand

General (Retd) Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan, Coordinating Minister for Maritime Affairs, Indonesia

Vice Admiral Hervé de Bonnaventure, Acting Director-General, International Relations and Strategy, Ministry of the Armed Forces, France

Manisha Singh, Assistant Secretary, Bureau of Economic and Business Affairs, US Department of State

Senior Colonel Zhou Bo, Director, Security Cooperation Centre, Office for International Military Cooperation, Central Military Commission, China

Dr Kori Schake, Deputy Director-General, IISS

remarks on initiatives in maritime security. He also

ASEAN is ‘only one of the pillars of Asia-Pacific secu-

highlighted the new Indo-Pacific strategy as outlined

rity architecture’ and should not therefore be allowed

by French President Emmanuel Macron during his

to ‘dominate major country relationships’.

recent visit to Australia.

The session concluded with a discussion in

Highlighting the degree to which economic

which most participants variously expressed their

security had become interwoven with national secu-

dissatisfaction with China’s activities in the South

rity under United States President Donald Trump,

China Sea, while also questioning the degree to which

Manisha Singh catalogued the concerns that the US

the concept of a ‘rules-based order’ was still valid in

held, and the actions that it was taking across the

light of what one participant described as US President

region. She referenced, for example, the link between

Trump’s breaking of rules ‘in many areas’. Singh

procedures to scrutinise foreign investments and

replied that the US is ‘fully engaged’ on all multilateral

national security. Senior Colonel Zhou Bo outlined

platforms. However, Singh added, the World Trade

China’s commitment to regional security coopera-

Organization (WTO) is ‘in need of repair’, and the

tion while arguing that the US is an ‘extra-regional’

Doha Development Agenda had been on ‘life support’

actor whose actions are impeding effective coopera-

for many years, so this was an area where there could

tion between the US and China in the Asia-Pacific.

be a ‘conversation about re-engaging and making it

The senior colonel was also notably insistent that

the centre of the global rules-based trading system’.

Special session 6

51

52

The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

IISS Shangri-La Dialogue 17TH ASIA SECURITY SUMMIT SINGAPORE, 1–3 JUNE 2018

CHAPTER 6 Istana Reception and Dinner

54

The Shangri-La Dialogue

55

56

The Shangri-La Dialogue

IISS Shangri-La Dialogue 17TH ASIA SECURITY SUMMIT SINGAPORE, 1–3 JUNE 2018

CHAPTER 7 New dimensions of terrorism and counterterrorism

FOURTH PLENARY SESSION Sunday 3 June 2018, 09:30 SPEAKERS Dr Khalid bin Mohammed Al Attiyah Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of State for Defense Affairs, Qatar Major-General (Retd) Delfin Lorenzana Secretary of National Defense, Philippines Dr Ursula von der Leyen Federal Minister of Defence, Germany

FOURTH PLENARY SESSION

New dimensions of terrorism and counter-terrorism Dr Khalid bin Mohammed Al Attiyah, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of State for Defense Affairs, Qatar

Dr Khalid bin Mohammed Al Attiyah, Qatar’s

Qatar has joined with other countries to establish

deputy prime minister and defence minister, said that

the Global Community Engagement and Resilience

Qatar had been ‘at the forefront’ of the battle against

Fund, which is active in Bangladesh, Myanmar and

terrorism for many years. Terrorists, he said, are ‘con-

elsewhere. Qatar has also supported educational ini-

stantly evolving their tactics’, devising ‘strategies to

tiatives worldwide, including among Palestinian

move across borders undetected, recruit the young

children in the West Bank, Gaza, Lebanon and Syria.

and impressionable, and bypass monetary law’. The

Attiyah went on to say that in the fight against terror-

deputy prime minister stated that terrorism had suc-

ism, Qatar supports the rule of law, human rights and

ceeded in ‘eclipsing economic growth, strangling social

international cooperation. However, Qatar had been

and political progress, and deterring development’ in

subject over the last year to an ‘unjust, unlawful block-

many parts of the world. In countering terrorism, ‘we

ade’. It had nevertheless emerged, he said, ‘stronger

too must evolve’, he said. It was necessary to ‘fortify’

than ever before’, increasing national production of

not just borders, but also ‘our minds and the minds of

commodities such as food and medicine and devel-

our youth’. Qatar has joined ‘friends and allies’ glob-

oping new international partnerships. Qatar thanked

ally to fight terrorism, dedicating financial, technical

those countries which had stood with it, ‘upholding

and logistical resources to ‘preventing violent extrem-

the power of law over enforcing the law of power’.

ism and cutting off terrorist funding’. In Qatar’s view,

The Philippines’ Secretary of National Defense

there is no ‘singular root cause’ of terrorism – rather,

Major-General (Retd) Delfin Lorenzana highlighted

‘numerous components’ have contributed.

the threat to the global community from ‘terrorist

58

The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

Major-General (Retd) Delfin Lorenzana, Secretary of National Defense, Philippines

organisations under false narratives’. The attacks in

battlefield between the forces of order and terror’.

Marawi during 2017, and in the Indonesian city of

These terrorists use multimedia, short-messaging

Surabaya in May, by ‘Daesh-inspired groups’ reflect

systems and social-media platforms to choreograph

‘new dimensions of militancy and religious funda-

operations. They might have been forced to migrate

mentalism in Southeast Asia’. These groups aimed

to the dark web as a result of the authorities’ improv-

to use urban warfare to establish a wilayat (governo-

ing cyber-security operations. ‘Digital currencies and

rate) in East Asia. Isnilon Hapilon, designated emir

mobile-payment transactions’ are aiding terrorist

in Southeast Asia for Islamic State, also known as ISIS

financing. At the same time, advances in equipment

or ISIL, had moved from Basilan Island to Marawi,

and weapons had allowed militants to ‘launch assaults

in the predominantly Muslim province of Lanao del

on a substantial scale’. In Marawi, they used ‘radio-

Sur, intending to rally the population to their cause.

frequency scanners and unmanned aerial vehicles for

In the event, rather than joining an uprising, many

surveillance’, as well as rocket-propelled grenades,

people fled. However, the insurgents – funded by the

sniper rifles with thermal-imaging scopes and ‘a large

Middle East and by the proceeds of narcotics-traffick-

amount’ of improvised explosive devices.

ing – were able to hold built-up areas in Marawi for

While ISIS-affiliated groups failed to establish

no less than five months. The terrorists could mount

a foothold in the southern Philippines, their initial

surprise attacks on government forces, which were

gains in Marawi provided a ‘viable blueprint’ for

hindered from launching all-out offensives because of

other Southeast Asian terrorists. Moreover, remnants

fears of civilian casualties. The ‘cleaning operation’ was

of the Maute group who escaped from Marawi were

consequently ‘slow, costly and tedious,’ according to

‘seeking new recruits’. Lorenzana said that it is nec-

Lorenzana. During the operation, 165 army and police

essary to develop capabilities to counter terrorist

personnel were killed and more than 1,000 wounded.

groups’ increasing lethality and tactical advantages

Lorenzana said that terrorist recruits in Southeast

in urban settings. The Philippines needed to estab-

Asia are now ‘educated, young and from middle-class

lish ‘a rapidly deployable combined military force, a

backgrounds’ and included families. Their willingness

quick-response team’. This force would be trained and

to conduct suicide bombings is new and disturbing.

properly equipped in ‘twenty-first century urban war-

Many are recruited after ‘exposure to digitally com-

fare’. Lorenzana said that international agreements

municated terrorist ideologies’: cyberspace is ‘a new

are needed to regulate cyberspace and to ensure that

Fourth plenary session

59

Dr Ursula von der Leyen, Federal Minister of Defence, Germany

‘the rule of law applies online’. Collaboration with the

At the same time, there is ‘an arc of crisis

private sector is necessary ‘to filter, detect and remove

stretching from West and North Africa to the near

content that incites terrorist acts’. Institutionalised

Middle East’, and the challenges there include brutal

collaboration at regional and subregional levels

terrorism which combines the traditional objectives

is important, as well as a multi-sectoral domes-

of al-Qaeda with ‘state-of-the-art methodologies’.

tic approach. For example, the government of the

The minister shared five thoughts on how to deal

Philippines is institutionalising a national madrassa

with the terrorist threat. Firstly, it is necessary to

system, and the Bureau of Immigration is monitoring

closely coordinate ‘our national instruments of

visiting clerics. Yet counter-terrorism laws need to be

law enforcement, diplomacy, development policy

amended, and a ‘whole nation’ approach ‘is required’

and the military’: reconstruction and stabilisation

in order to prevent radicalisation.

needed to be ‘part of our planning right from

Germany’s Federal Minister of Defence Dr Ursula

the start’. Secondly, in response to the highly

von der Leyen focused on the evolution of Europe’s

professional recruitment strategies of ISIS, a ‘smart’

security perspectives during the three years since she

response emphasising ‘the openness of our societies’

last spoke at the Shangri-La Dialogue, saying that

while countering the ‘false arguments’ of terrorist

despite the United Kingdom’s decision to leave the

organisations is necessary. Thirdly, she said, ‘fragile

European Union, the refugee crisis and ‘the many new

countries and regions’ need to be strengthened, so

voices that favour unilateralism’, the EU has emerged

that they can assume responsibility for their own

stronger in terms of its solidarity and values. It is also,

security. Next, it is necessary to disrupt the channels

through the European Defence Union, becoming ‘a

of terrorism communication and financing. Finally,

truly relevant partner in security and defence’. The

responding to the return of fighters from the Middle

German government’s goal, according to the minister, is

East is one of the most important security challenges.

to create ‘an army of Europeans’: national armed forces

The minister concluded by echoing Deputy Prime

would still exist, but there would be inter-operability

Minister Attiyah’s address, saying that in the

and mutual compatibility. This is necessary, she said,

fight against transnational terrorism – and more

because Russia was ‘increasingly projecting power with

generally – the ‘power of law must prevail over the

military means’, thereby questioning the rules-based

law of power’, a principle that both Germany and

order, which ‘we will by no means abandon’.

Europe support.

60

The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

Dzirhan Bin Mahadzir, Malaysia Correspondent, Shephard Media

Dr Tim Huxley, Executive Director, IISS–Asia

Dr Rommel Banlaoi, Executive Director of the Philippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Research

QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS

Lorenzana replied that the government was looking

Among many wider-ranging questions from delegates,

after the people displaced from Marawi well, though it

Dzirhan bin Mahadzir of Shephard Media asked

would be ‘about three years’ before they could go home.

Lorenzana whether the trilateral air and sea patrols in

Regarding foreign fighters, he said that ‘hopefully’ the

the Sulu Sea were effective, and whether they might

Islamic State plan to establish a Southeast Asian foot-

expand to involve other countries. The Philippine secre-

hold had been ‘nipped in the bud’.

tary replied that the patrols had stopped kidnappings in

Mark Fitzpatrick of IISS–Americas asked Deputy

the region, and that other participants – notably Brunei

Prime Minister Attiyah whether Qatar would allow

and Singapore – would indeed join. Dr Tim Huxley of

the United States to use the Al Udeid Air Base in the

IISS–Asia asked Lorenzana if he could ‘say with con-

event of an air campaign against Iran. Attiyah replied

fidence’ that a repeat of the Marawi event was now

that he thought ‘the United States is wiser than to enter

unlikely. Lorenzana said in response that this was still

into a war with Iran’. Richard Lloyd Parry, Asia Editor

possible, but that the Philippine authorities had made

of The Times, asked the German minister if ‘trade ten-

efforts to ‘strengthen’ other cities in Mindanao, such as

sions’ would affect relations between the US and

Cotabato, Davao and Zamboanga, to prevent any recur-

NATO allies on security matters, and how Brexit might

rence. Dr Rommel Banlaoi from the Philippine Institute

affect European countries’ ability ‘to implement an

for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Research, expressed

effective security policy in the long term’. Dr von der

concern that evacuees from Marawi could provide a

Leyen argued that the continued existence of NATO

pool of jihadist recruits in future, and also over militant

as an alliance including both the United Kingdom and

exchanges on messaging services suggesting that the

EU member states meant that Brexit would have a rel-

Philippines could become a base for foreign terrorists.

atively limited impact in security terms.

Mark Fitzpatrick, Executive Director, IISS–Americas; Director, Non-Proliferation and Nuclear Policy Programme, IISS

Richard Lloyd Parry, Asia Editor, The Times

Fourth plenary session

61

62

The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

IISS Shangri-La Dialogue 17TH ASIA SECURITY SUMMIT SINGAPORE, 1–3 JUNE 2018

CHAPTER 8 Raising the bar for regional security cooperation

FIFTH PLENARY SESSION Sunday 3 June 2018, 11:30 SPEAKERS Florence Parly Minister of the Armed Forces, France Gavin Williamson Secretary of State for Defence, UK Dr Ng Eng Hen Minister for Defence, Singapore

FIFTH PLENARY SESSION

Raising the bar for regional security cooperation Florence Parly, Minister of the Armed Forces, France

French Minister of the Armed Forces Florence Parly,

competing interests among the negotiating parties.

with reference to the session’s title, said that often one

She stressed that until the CVID of North Korea’s

witnessed as much competition as cooperation when

nuclear programme, the implementation of sanctions

countries engage with security challenges. The min-

should continue in a robust way.

ister focused on three such challenges of overarching

A second challenge, Parly suggested, pertained to

importance for the region and ‘promising elements

respect for international maritime law, or lack thereof.

for cooperation’.

She stressed the importance of maritime waterways for

Nuclear proliferation was the first issue; the

the economic security of states in the region and argued

minister argued international pressure had struggled

that even states to whom these waterways are crucial

to keep pace with an accelerating North Korean

did not have the ‘right to bypass international maritime

nuclear programme. She expressed doubts regarding

law’. The settlement of disputes should be pursued by

Pyongyang’s willingness to engage in CVID – without

way of negotiation and by legal means. With respect to

specifying whether she meant complete, verifiable,

international maritime law, Parly identified a tendency

irreversible dismantlement/denuclearisation – and also

to exploit power ‘asymmetries’ to push for unilateral

regarding sanctions which seem to be implemented and

and ‘non-cooperative solutions’. On the South China

enforced to varying degrees. Even the diplomatic effort

Sea disputes, Parly said France would support a legally

currently under way – Parly referenced the potential

binding code of conduct. She expressed her hope that

upcoming United States–North Korea summit and the

more European governments should be mobilised to

‘diplomatic extravaganza of visits’ – demonstrated

engage on South China Sea issues.

64

The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

Gavin Williamson, Secretary of State for Defence, UK

The third challenge the armed forces minister

around common causes and purposes. For the United

focused on was terrorism, which has struck states in

Kingdom, the Five Power Defence Arrangements

the Indo-Pacific region and in Europe. Even in the field

(FPDA) were particularly relevant and provided a

of fighting terrorism, limits to cooperation were vis-

framework for UK participation in regional exercises.

ible as there were different perspectives. For example,

Williamson suggested that the FPDA should be mod-

some saw the Taliban as terrorists; others saw them as

ernised and expanded in scope to include maritime

freedom fighters.

security and counter-terrorism. A precondition for

Above all, Parly emphasised multilateralism

effective multilateralism was close coordination and

‘backed if necessary by robust measures and a sense

communication. Williamson cited examples of UK

of reciprocity to address issues through patient nego-

engagement in the region: the deployment of British

tiation’. The minister recalled the Thucydides Trap:

naval vessels to the region to help enforce UN Security

‘when the balance of power changes, it is not the

Council resolutions against North Korea and the estab-

power we lose, but the balance’.

lishment of the British defence-staff base in Singapore.

Gavin Williamson, the United Kingdom defence

Singaporean Minister for Defence Dr Ng Eng Hen

secretary, started his remarks by pointing to the under-

stressed that the Shangri-La Dialogue is a much-needed

lying connection between prosperity and security, with

forum that plays an important role in promoting

the latter underpinning the former. The threat landscape,

regional security in the face of accelerating change. The

Williamson pointed out, is varied and ranged from vio-

minister suggested the rules-based international order

lent extremism and terror, to nuclear proliferation and

continues to function but is increasingly being chal-

aggressive states trying to coerce and undermine others.

lenged. He pointed to the United States as pursuing

The secretary argued that cooperation was necessary to

policies to address perceived inequalities, but doing

uphold the rules-based international order from which

so from a ‘national stance’ that differed markedly from

all states benefitted. This requires greater efforts in the

the United States’ traditional role as ‘champion of the

fields of maritime security, counter-terrorism, disaster

entrenched order of globalisation’. Claimant states in

relief, peacekeeping operations and cyber security.

the South China Sea had also taken a number of uni-

For regional security cooperation, ‘multilateralism

lateral actions in pursuit of national interests. China in

is key’. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations

particular, said Dr Ng, had intensified the build-up of

(ASEAN) was a good example where the region united

military capabilities in disputed areas.

Fifth plenary session

65

Dr Ng Eng Hen, Minister for Defence, Singapore

The minister characterised such actions as ‘devia-

tion, especially given that such a position came from a

tions from global norms [which] challenge the status

state that was not involved in the negotiations. Richard

quo and accepted rules’ – even though those rules

Lloyd Parry of The Times asked what countries who

had proven to be very beneficial to Asia. He argued

refused to accept the idea of a Chinese fait accompli

that both the US and China were acting to strengthen

were willing to do in practical terms to change the sit-

their advantages. Because of their ‘sheer size’ and

uation in the South China Sea. Dr William Choong of

economic and military potential, these two states had

IISS–Asia continued in a similar vein, asking whether

been the critical players in the evolution of the rules-

France and the United Kingdom would conduct more

based international order. However, relations among

freedom-of-navigation related activities in the region,

regional powers on a wider scale had been important

given that they had both committed naval vessels.

as well. Attempts by China and Japan to engage with

Dr Chong Ja Ian of the National University of

each other constructively around security questions

Singapore expanded the conversation to the wider

such as air and maritime incidents were an encour-

issue of the rules-based international order, asking

aging sign. Dr Ng welcomed India’s commitment to

what kind of responses governments would consider if

the region. He also lauded the ‘renewed vigour’ from

the norms and rules every speaker stressed were being

several European countries which had recognised the

violated. Fleur de Villiers, Chair of the Trustees, IISS,

importance of security in the region for their own eco-

suggested that the many calls for a return to a rules-

nomic and geopolitical ambitions.

based international order overlooked the fact that rules were likely to be set ‘by he who rules’ and that it might be appropriate to acknowledge that the world

QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS

had entered once more into an age of great-power

The three ministerial statements triggered a lively

politics. Mark Fitzpatrick, executive director of IISS–

question-and-answer session. Major-General (Retd)

Americas, asked the speakers to explain whether they

Yao Yunzhu of the People’s Liberation Army’s

would advise US President Donald Trump to accept

Academy of Military Science, referring to Minister

a North Korea deal that amounted to less than CVID.

Parly’s speech, suggested that a South China Sea Code

Senior Colonel Zhao Xiaozhuo of the Academy of

of Conduct that was legally binding and disregarded

Military Science, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA)

the current fait accompli was a demanding proposi-

enquired whether there was a shared conception of the

66

The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

Major-General (Retd) Yao Yunzhu, Director Emeritus, Center on China–American Defense Relations, Academy of Military Science, People’s Liberation Army, China

Richard Lloyd Parry, Asia Editor, The Times

Dr William Choong, Shangri-La Dialogue Senior Fellow for Asia-Pacific Security, IISS–Asia

Indo-Pacific and how the idea of an Indo-Pacific region

work that the vast majority of states accepted as valid.

might affect existing regional-security mechanisms.

With a view to North Korea, the secretary argued that

Parly responded by explaining that France was

any negotiated solution would have to be a solution

committed to the principle of freedom of navigation

‘for all interested parties’ – meaning a solution that

and would exercise it to challenge the notion that de

addresses the needs of all parties in the region. Dr

facto sovereignty over disputed islands exists. She

Ng stressed that while he accepted international rules

argued this was a contribution to the rules-based

were evolving, it was still important to ‘focus on dia-

international order and encouraged other European

logue, confidence-building measures and strategic

powers to join in. Regarding the North Korea negotia-

patience’. Other countries have to hope that they can

tions, Parly suggested that the best way to safeguard

persuade more powerful ones to be ‘equally benign

against an outcome less than CVID was to fully and

and magnanimous’, a phrase Dr Ng attributed to

robustly implement a sanctions regime. Williamson

Lee Kuan Yew, Singapore’s founding prime minister

stressed the UK’s commitment to freedom of naviga-

when speaking of the US. The minister argued that for

tion. He suggested that by working together, solutions

Singapore, despite notions of the Indo-Pacific, ASEAN

could be found with regards to how international

remained the central framework. The grouping would

rules might have to evolve. But to be able to do that,

also not ‘choose sides’, but instead ‘look for rules that

governments would have to work within the frame-

will benefit both small and large states’.

Dr Chong Ja Ian, Assistant Professor, Political Science, Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, National University of Singapore

Fleur de Villiers, Chair of the Trustees, IISS

Mark Fitzpatrick, Executive Director, IISS– Americas; Director, Non-Proliferation and Nuclear Policy Programme, IISS

Fifth plenary session

67

68

The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

IISS Shangri-La Dialogue 17TH ASIA SECURITY SUMMIT SINGAPORE, 1–3 JUNE 2018

CHAPTER 9 The Southeast Asian Young Leaders’ Programme

The Southeast Asian Young Leaders’ Programme Admiral Philip Davidson, Commander of US Indo-Pacific Command, with the Young Leaders

The Southeast Asian Young Leaders’ Programme

Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, the High

(SEAYLP), now in its third year, continued to build

Commission of Canada to Singapore, the Embassy of

momentum as an influential and policy-relevant ini-

Japan in Singapore, the British High Commission in

tiative within the main Shangri-La Dialogue agenda.

Singapore, Norway’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the

The programme convened 36 Young Leaders, more

United States Mission to the Association of Southeast

than half of them women, from ten Southeast Asian

Asian Nations (ASEAN), the European Union and two

countries. This year, there was also an increased extra-

corporate sponsors: Facebook and OUE Limited.

regional presence among the programme’s delegates,

The Young Leaders engaged in lively debate over

which comprised journalists, academics, business-

the course of the summit at key points during the

people and government practitioners. Delegates

Dialogue, enriching the overall discourse. Following

participated in the full Shangri-La Dialogue summit

United States Secretary of Defense James Mattis’s

and an extended SEAYLP agenda, which this year

first plenary address, SEAYLP delegate from the

included seven dedicated activities offering privileged

Philippines Dr Jeffrey Ordaniel, research fellow for

discussions with senior officials from across the Indo-

international security at the Pacific Forum, Center for

Pacific region. These included a breakfast discussion,

Strategic and International Studies, asked Secretary

a luncheon and a seminar the day after the summit, as

Mattis about the US commitment to defence of the

well as visits to two naval bases in Singapore. The 2018

Philippines under the 1951 US–Philippines Mutual

programme was funded with the generous support of

Defense treaty. Dr Ngeow Chow Bing, deputy direc-

Singapore’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Australian

tor, Institute of China Studies, University of Malaya,

70

The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

Heru Yuda (centre) and other Young Leaders having a lively discussion with Admiral Philip Davidson

questioned Mattis over US approaches towards Russia

of New South Wales, followed up with questions

and China in the context of the US National Security

relating to codes of conduct. Likewise, the SEAYLP

and National Defense Strategy documents. Also from

delegates took a very active role in the special ses-

Malaysia, Dr Hoo Chiew Ping, the inaugural 2017

sion focusing on Myanmar’s Rakhine State. Khin

SEAYLP associate fellow, asked Repulic of Korea

Khin Kyaw Kyee, lead researcher from Myanmar’s

(ROK) defence minister Song Young-moo about the

Institute for Strategy and Policy, asked some direct

ROK’s approaches to China and Japan in handling

questions regarding the nature of China’s Belt and

North Korea.

Road Initiative (BRI) during the special session con-

SEAYLP delegate Seng Pan, deputy executive

cerning the Indian Ocean Region.

director of Myanmar’s Joint Ceasefire Monitoring Committee, asked questions regarding counter-terrorism in the third and fourth plenary sessions. She

SOCIAL MEDIA ENGAGEMENT

asked Indonesia’s defence minister about ASEAN’s

SEAYLP 2018 delegates were avid users of social

preparedness for handling terrorist recruitment

media platforms during the Dialogue and were active

across the region during the third plenary session,

participants in online debate, particularly during the

and in the fourth plenary questioned the defence sec-

plenary sessions, engaging with panel speakers as well

retary of the Philippines about lessons learnt from

as one another. The SEAYLP delegates made good

the Marawi insurgency.

use of the #SLDYoungLeaders hashtag on Twitter,

During the special sessions, Aun Chhengpor,

interacting with one another and their followers.

enterprise reporter for the Khmer Service, VOA

Social media engagement was enhanced significantly

Khmer, asked Vietnam’s Lieutenant-General Nguyen

through the sponsorship and promotion of the pro-

Duc Hai about best practices in the Gulf of Thailand.

gramme by Facebook and through participation in the

In the same session, Dr Kei Koga from Japan asked

programme for the second year running by Gullnaz

Rear Admiral Donald Gabrielson about the util-

Baig, Facebook’s head of terrorism policy for the Asia-

ity of confidence-building measures at sea. Michael

Pacific region. A highlight of the programme was a

Williams from Global Affairs Canada and Tuan

Facebook Live event with panel presentations by inde-

Anh Luc, on study leave from Vietnam’s Ministry of

pendent researcher and analyst Angelica Mangahas,

Public Security and a PhD candidate at the University

Facebook’s Global Head of Counterterrorism Policy

The Southeast Asian Young Leaders’ Programme

71

Three of the speakers at the SEAYLP Luncheon flanked

by Young Leaders: (from left to right) Francisco Fontan Pardo, Ambassador, EU Mission to ASEAN; Jane Duke, Ambassador, Australian Mission to ASEAN; and Kansuke Nagaoka, Ambassador, Policy Planning and International Security Policy, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Japan

Brian

Fishman

and Australia’s Acting

Deputy

the Young Leaders participated in an exclusive

Secretary for Strategic Policy and Intelligence Scott

closed-door breakfast discussion with Dr Vivian

Dewar. By the end of June, the Facebook Live session

Balakrishnan, Singapore’s foreign affairs minister,

had generated nearly 30,000 views.

chaired by Shangri-La Dialogue Senior Fellow for AsiaPacific Security Dr William Choong. Dr Balakrishnan observed that the world was currently witnessing pro-

EXCLUSIVE EVENTS

found and accelerated change. This necessitated that

The programme was launched this year by IISS

politicians, electorates and companies make difficult

Director-General Dr John Chipman, accompanied

choices. He warned that the benefits of globalisation

by IISS Deputy Director-General Dr Kori Schake. Dr

were being questioned internationally and a shift in

Chipman remarked that 35 years ago, he had attended

the geostrategic balance of power was under way. He

an IISS ‘new faces’ conference which had nurtured a

asserted that the digital revolution had resulted in tec-

network of world strategic leaders, among whom was

tonic changes in the distribution of information and

Dr Condoleezza Rice, former US national security

power. He also warned of the emergence of non-state

adviser, and Dr Schake herself. Dr Chipman illustrated

actors and transboundary threats including terror-

the significance of participating in Asia’s premier

ism, cyber crime and climate change which required a

security dialogue and encouraged the group to max-

collective exercise of political will from affected coun-

imise the opportunity to engage during the Dialogue.

tries. For this reason, Singapore, serving as ASEAN

Following his introduction, representatives from

chair in 2018, had chosen to focus on two key themes:

sponsoring countries – Philip Barton, director general,

resilience and innovation as well as concentrating on

Consular and Security, Foreign and Commonwealth

the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership

Office of the United Kingdom and Acting Deputy

(RCEP), which if successful would include one third

Head of Mission Andrea Appell, United States

of global GDP. Dr Balakrishnan underlined the signifi-

Mission to ASEAN in Jakarta – gave their observations

cant geopolitical location of the Southeast Asian region

about the significance of the programme from their

and that both India and the US had reaffirmed ASEAN

own national perspectives.

unity and centrality in the new geopolitical construct

The third and final day of the summit was a

of the Indo-Pacific as a route to continued peace and

busy one for the Young Leaders. On Sunday 3 June,

prosperity in the region. Dr Balakrishnan emphasised

72

The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

Singapore Minister for Foreign Affairs Vivian Balakrishnan addresses the Southeast Asian Young Leaders’ Programme at the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue 2018

the need for ASEAN to maintain intra-regional soli-

Later in the morning, the Young Leaders met the

darity and adherence to a rules-based order. During

new commander of the recently renamed United

a subsequent question-and-answer session, much of

States Indo-Pacific Command (USINDOPACOM),

the debate focused on challenges and opportunities

Admiral Philip Davidson. Pledging to match

for ASEAN, the new Indo-Pacific concept, ASEAN’s

words with deeds during his leadership, Admiral

response to non-traditional security threats and climate

Davidson outlined his new role to the Young Leaders

change. Marvin Salazar from the Philippines asked

and emphasised the geostrategic significance of the

a question regarding the progress of ASEAN–China

Indo-Pacific in terms of its growing population. He

negotiations for a South China Sea Code of Conduct

observed that the last 70 years had been relatively

and the role Singapore had played in this process as

stable owing to commitments by countries of the

ASEAN chair in 2018. Heru Yuda from Indonesia and

region to a free and open Indo-Pacific and the contri-

Thanawan Klumklomchit from Thailand asked about

bution made by the USINDOPACOM in securing the

ASEAN’s preparedness in tackling climate change and

region. Taking questions from the group, the com-

terrorism, respectively.

mander discussed the significance of Indian Prime

The Young Leaders with the IISS–Asia staff: Dr William Choong, Shangri-La Dialogue Senior Fellow for Asia-Pacific Security; Dr Tim Huxley, Executive Director, and Alexander Neill, Shangri-La Dialogue Senior Fellow for Asia-Pacific Security

The Southeast Asian Young Leaders’ Programme

73

Minister Narendra Modi’s keynote address, US

The final event of the day was the inaugural

engagement with ASEAN and the impact of the Indo-

IISS Facebook Live event, ‘Reflections on the IISS

Pacific construct for the region.

Shangri-La Dialogue – challenges and opportunities of the evolving security landscape’ with a panel of experts including independent researcher and ana-

SEAYLP LUNCHEON AND SEMINAR

lyst Angelica Mangahas, Facebook’s Global Head

At a SEAYLP luncheon on Sunday, the Young Leaders

of Counterterrorism Policy Brian Fishman and

were invited to discuss ‘ASEAN and the major powers:

Australia’s Acting Deputy Secretary for Strategic

challenges and opportunities’. The panel of speak-

Policy and Intelligence Scott Dewar. Dewar empha-

ers comprised government representatives from a

sised the important focus of the Shangri-La Dialogue

selection of SEAYLP-sponsoring countries including

on ASEAN centrality within the context of the Indo-

Jody Thomas, deputy minister of national defence of

Pacific, acknowledging the accomplishments of the

Canada; Kansuke Nagaoka, Japan’s Ambassador for

government of Singapore as ASEAN chair in 2018.

policy planning and international security policy; Jane

Mangahas observed that she had been impressed by

Duke, Ambassador at Australia’s Mission to ASEAN;

remarks from Indian Prime Minister Modi and US

and Francisco Fontan Pardo, the EU’s Ambassador

Secretary of Defense Mattis but questioned the valid-

to ASEAN. The panelists stressed the significance

ity of the Indo-Pacific concept and its compatibility

of Southeast Asia for their respective countries and

with ASEAN. She talked about the need for progress

organisations and elucidated on the concept of the

on a South China Sea Code of Conduct and the criti-

Indo-Pacific,

and

cal question of China’s approach to the concept of the

ASEAN’s role within them. The discussion ranged

Indo-Pacific. Fishman made the link between secu-

from ASEAN partners’ cooperation in counter-terror-

rity concerns discussed at the Dialogue and threats

ism, the rules-based order and the interaction between

in cyberspace. He outlined Facebook’s approach to

major regional powers and ASEAN.

counter-terrorism, asserting that Facebook and other

regional-security

architectures

From left to right: Brian Fishman, Facebook’s Head of Counterterrorism Policy; Angelica Mangahas, independent researcher and analyst; Alexander Neill, Shangri-La Dialogue Senior Fellow for Asia-Pacific Security, IISS–Asia; and Scott Dewar, Acting Deputy Secretary for Strategic Policy and Intelligence, Australian Department of Defence

74

The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

Alexander Neill, Shangri-La Dialogue Senior Fellow for Asia-Pacific Security, IISS–Asia; Andrea Appell, Acting Head of Mission, US Mission to ASEAN, Jakarta; Philip Barton, Director General, Consular and Security, Foreign and Commonwealth Office, UK; Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS; and Dr Kori Schake, Deputy Director-General, IISS

technological companies shared common interests

On Friday 1 June, the officers and crew of HMS

with state actors in dealing with such threats. He

Sutherland, a UK Royal Navy frigate in transit to an

noted that there is still a major gap between policy

operational deployment to the Asia-Pacific, hosted

and implementation, observing that the debate

the SEAYLP group on-board the vessel. The Young

about a rules-based order tended to focus on the

Leaders, some of whom were visiting a modern war-

maritime domain and less on the unique dynamics

ship for the first time, gained a better understanding

of cyberspace.

of the challenges of operating and fighting on the high

The final day of the programme commenced with

seas and were particularly impressed with a presen-

an address given by outgoing US Navy Rear Admiral

tation delivered by the ship’s commanding officer

Donald Gabrielson, commander of the Logistics

Commander Andrew Canale and his colleagues.

Group Western Pacific and Combined Task Force 73

A tour of the ship provided operational context for

based in Singapore. Entitled ‘Negotiating the Indo-

the group as a prelude to the summit, giving the

Pacific security landscape: a practitioner’s view’,

UK an opportunity to deliver a strong message on

Admiral Gabrielson offered an at times philosophi-

its renewed commitment to the security of the Asia-

cal view on approaches to leadership and the central

Pacific and to upholding a rules-based international

importance of strategic thinking. Drawing upon five

system at sea.

years’ operational experience in the Indo-Pacific, he

On Monday 4 June, the programme concluded with

spoke of the need for empathy, metrics of success and

a visit by the Young Leaders group to the Information

US interests in the region.

Fusion Centre (IFC) at Changi Naval Base, hosted by the government of Singapore. Senior Lieutenant Colonel Raymond Ong, the director of the IFC,

OFFSITE VISITS

briefed the group on the centre’s operations, focused

Visits to two of Singapore’s naval bases at the very begin-

on international coordination in tackling regional

ning and end of the SEAYLP were an important part of

maritime threats and the work of an integrated team of

the programme, offering the opportunity for SEAYLP

international liaison officers in enhancing the region’s

delegates to observe policy translated into practice.

maritime-domain awareness.

The Southeast Asian Young Leaders’ Programme

75

76

The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

APPENDICES

17TH ASIA SECURITY SUMMIT SINGAPORE, 1–3 JUNE 2018

I. Selected press coverage of the 2018 IISS Shangri-La Dialogue II. Selected IISS publications

APPENDIX I

Selected press coverage of the 2018 IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

Hindustan Times 1 June 2018

Narendra Modi seeks closer ties with China, says Indo-Pacific region not an exclusive club In his speech at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore as part of his Southeast Asia tour this week, Prime Minister Narendra Modi stressed India stands for an open and stable international trade regime India wants an ‘open and stable’ international trade regime that gives a level-playing field to all countries, said PM Narendra Modi in Singapore on Friday as he stressed that his country’s ties with China were improving.

‘This is a world of inter-dependent fortunes and failures. No nation can shape and secure on its own. It is a world that summons us to rise above divisions and competition to work together. Is that possible? Yes, it is possible.

I see ASEAN as an example and inspiration,’ said Modi at the Shangri-La Dialogue, an annual security summit.

‘Solutions cannot be found behind walls of protection, but in embracing change. What we seek is a level-playing field for all. India stands for an open and stable international trade regime,’ he said.

Modi’s comments on China come amid heightened concern over the Donald Trump administration’s trade policies. The US has imposed tariffs on Canada, Mexico and the European Union with tariffs on steel and aluminium.

It has has also imposed traiffs on a range of goods from China, provoking retaliatory measures.

Referring to regional maritime issues, Modi said India does not see the Indo-Pacific region as a strategy or as a club of limited members.

‘India stands for a free, open, inclusive Indo-Pacific region, which embraces us all in a common pursuit of progress and prosperity,’ he said.

On Thursday, the US renamed its military’s Pacific Command as the Indo-Pacific Command, in a move seen as a

78

The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

symbolic acknowledgement of growing defence ties with India.

Modi, who met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in April, again reached out to the country for greater cooperation.

‘I firmly believe that Asia and the world will have a better future when India and China work together in trust and confidence. No other relationship of India has as many layers as our relationship with China,’ he said.

‘India-China cooperation is expanding. Trade is growing. And, we have displayed maturity and wisdom in managing issues and ensuring a peaceful border. There is growing intersection in our international presence.’

Singapore was the last stop in Modi’s visit to three countries in Southeast Asia this week as part of an ‘Act East’ policy of strengthening relations in the region amid concern over China’s rising maritime influence, in particular in the disputed South China Sea. ©Hindustan Times Reprinted with permission

Deutsche Welle 1 June 2018

As the US scrambles to reorganize a summit with North Korea, positive outcomes are far from certain. Rather than a calculated strategy, the Trump administration’s disorganized diplomacy is leaving the world in suspense.

For a period of time in early May, the diplomatic breakthroughs on the Korean Peninsula provided the impression that US President Donald Trump’s ‘maximum pressure’ policy was working, and a clear path to negotiation between the US and North Korea seemed possible after a year of ‘fire and fury’ rhetoric and missile tests.

The leaders of North and South Korea held a historic meeting in April and pledged and to officially end the formal state of war between the two countries. After US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo met with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un on May 8, a date was set for an unprecedented summit between Kim and the US president for June 12 in Singapore.

The White House even minted commemorative coins, emblazoned with the word ‘peace talks’ and visages of the two leaders. Trump boasted that ‘everybody thinks’ he should receive a Nobel Peace Prize.

However, only a few weeks later, the meeting between Trump and Kim is no longer a certainty as envoys from all parties scramble to renegotiate after Trump abruptly called off the summit in a letter issued on May 24.

One of Trump’s consistent strategies is to keep his opponents off guard by obfuscating his intentions. However, the sensitive and complicated structure of forging diplomacy between the US and North Korea is impaired by mixed signals coming from Trump administration officials and signs of dysfunctional policymaking from the White House.

Fighting words This was made clear by Pyongyang’s reaction to a televised interview with US Vice President Mike Pence on May 21, during which Pence made remarks about the Kim regime meeting a similar fate to Colonel Gaddafi in Libya, who was overthrown and beaten to death in 2011.

‘As the president made clear, this will only end like the Libyan model ended if Kim Jong-un doesn’t make a deal,’ Pence told Fox News.

Pence’s statements reflect hardliner National Security Advisor John Bolton’s remarks in April about the socalled ‘Libyan model’ of denuclearization, which calls for the complete removal of all nuclear weapons material.

Pyongyang is very aware of the fact that Gaddafi gave up Libya’s pursuit of nuclear weapons in 2003, and was nevertheless overthrown by US-backed forces.

The remarks from the US vice president came across as antagonistic to the North Koreans at a point where both sides were trying to create a sustainable framework for negotiation. In response, North Korean Vice Minister for Foreign Affairs Choe Son-hui issued a statement published

by North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency expressing his ‘surprise’ at ‘such ignorant and stupid remarks gushing from the mouth of the US vice president.’

In the statement, before calling Pence a ‘political dummy,’ Choe said that as vice president, Pence should ‘sense the trends in dialogue and the climate of détente.’

‘We can also make the US taste an appalling tragedy it has neither experienced nor even imagined up to now,’ the statement continued.

Trump’s letter in response cancelling the summit cited the ‘open hostility and anger’ from North Korea, while

boasting about the US’ nuclear capability being ‘massive and powerful.’ Trump’s letter also lamented the ‘lost opportunity’ for the world, but dangled the possibility that talks could continue.

Indeed, after a conciliatory response on May 25 from North Korea’s Vice Foreign Minister Kim Kye-gwan, expressing Pyongyang’s willingness to talk at ‘any time and in any format,’ Trump took an about-face and signaled on Twitter that the summit could very well continue as planned, without making anything official.

‘Trump’s flip-flopping reflects both his diplomatic inexperience and his mercurial nature,’ Mark Fitzpatrick, an executive director at the Washington-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), told DW. ‘He tries to portray it as negotiation gamesmanship, which in some ways is true,’ added Fitzpatrick. ‘His announcement that the summit was off pressured the North Koreans into quickly moving to try to put it back on.

But when Trump then contradicted his own staff and said the meeting could still be held on June 12, he displayed his keenness to make it happen.’

‘By being so enthusiastic about the summit and basking in the false hopes that it will bring him a Nobel Peace prize, Trump cedes leverage to North Korea,’ said Fitzpatrick.

Giving the advantage to Pyongyang?

Sensing an opportunity to save face, on May 26 Kim quickly organized a meeting on the northern side of the truce village of Panmunjom with South Korean President Moon Jae In, who had been blindsided by Trump’s abrupt pullout.

In a show of bonhomie, the two were pictured embracing and Moon returned from the meeting with a message for Washington that Kim was ‘willing to denuclearize,’ if the US would respect North Korea’s sovereignty.

‘Kim has already taken advantage of the situation,’ Dr. Jung Pak, SK-Korea Foundation Chair in Korea Studies at the Brookings Institution’s Center for East Asia Policy Studies in Washington, told DW. ‘He met with President Moon in a quickly organized second summit meeting, creating the perception that North and South Korea were working toward peace, while the US gets the blame for obstructing dialogue.’

‘Moon has been clear that he wants to play the role of mediator between the US and North Korea, in effect ‘coaching’ Trump and Kim on how to handle each other,’ said Pak. ‘There is concern that improvement of inter-Korean relations without Kim’s commitment and actions on denuclearization will defeat the ‘maximum pressure’ campaign (if it hasn’t already), while it buys time for Kim to continue developing his WMDs and normalize his claimed status as a nuclear weapons power,’ said Pak. The show must go on Although there is no official certainty, there are signs that both sides are continuing to lay the groundwork for

Selected press coverage

79

a summit. On Thursday, May 31, US Secretary of State Pompeo hosted Kim Yong-chol, the highest ranking North Korean official to visit the US in 18 years. After the meeting, Pompeo said the two sides had ‘made progress’ and that Kim was expected to deliver a letter to President Trump from the North Korean leader on Friday.

Even if the summit does take place, there is currently no indication that either side has shifted their standpoint. It is also unclear if both sides agree to the meaning of ‘complete denuclearization.’ Although they apparently ‘completely dismantled’ their nuclear test site, North Korea has yet to express any willingness to dismantle their nuclear capabilities or ‘immediately’ denuclearize.

‘Based on the sequence of events that led to Trump’s non-cancellation/cancellation of the summit with Kim, it seems that there are signs of policy dysfunction in this White House with respect to North Korea policy,’ said Pak. While the symbolic value of a US–North Korea summit cannot be denied, outcomes changing the strategic landscape are far from certain.

It seems that for the Trump Administration, the act of holding the summit would be seen as a victory.

‘It would be nothing short of tragic to let this opportunity go to waste,’ said Secretary Pompeo on Thursday.

Looking closer, the best-case outcome of a summit is most likely to be just the beginning of long-term, technical negotiations. But if Trump’s history is any indication, he would be satisfied with the appearance of unprecedented diplomacy.

‘All roads to peace on the Korean Peninsula obviously have to run through Seoul and Pyongyang,’ said Fitzpatrick.

‘North and South Korea can by themselves make many strides toward peace. But North Korea has always demanded that the US be its main interlocutor. And of course, the US role is crucial because of the nuclear umbrella it wields. So ultimately, real progress toward denuclearization must involve the US, even if its influence is diminished

by Trump’s poor judgment and leadership.’ ©Deutsche Welle Reprinted with permission

Financial Times 1 June 2018

SE Asia said to be losing maritime ‘arms race’ South-east Asian nations are locked in a losing ‘arms race’ with Beijing in the South China Sea and must seek compromises or risk a conflict they cannot win, according to Philippines defenceminister Delfin Lorenzana.

‘They can come and go in our West Philippine Sea unimpeded because we don’t have the wherewithal to confront

80

The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

them,’ he told the Financial Times on Friday, using the Philippines term for the South China Sea. ‘China is actually using its military might to intimidate countries.’

Mr Lorenzana said he was concerned about China’s recent deployment of missiles on man-made islands in the South China Sea, parts of which are also claimed by Manila, even though he said Beijing had assured the Philippines that its forces would not be targeted.

‘We are worried because they can shoot down our aircraft when they patrol,’ he said in Singapore, on the first day of the Shangri-La Dialogue, an annual Asian security summit organised by the International Institute for Strategic Studies. ‘If those weapons are already there, the chance of miscalculation is also great.’

Since he was elected in 2016, Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte has come under fire for seeking closer ties with Beijing and diluting the traditionally close partnership with the US, the country’s ally and former colonial power.

Mr Lorenzana said that the US could have stopped China from building a string of military bases on reclaimed reefs in the Paracel and Spratly Islands had it ‘exerted more pressure’.

Now, the Philippines – and other claimants to the South China Sea, including Malaysia and Vietnam – are faced with a fait accompli and a seemingly inexorable military build-up.

Jim Mattis, the US defence secretary, on Tuesday vowed to ‘confront’ China over its militarisation of the South China Sea, several days after the US withdrew an invitation for Beijing to participate in a major naval exercise in protest at its actions.

Mr Mattis, who met Mr Lorenzana and his other southeast Asian counterparts in Singapore on Friday, is expected to elaborate on US concerns about China’s activities when he speaks at the Shangri-La Dialogue on Saturday.

Beijing has described the US claims of Chinese militarisation as ‘ridiculous’, insisting that US forces are far more extensive and active in Asia than the People’s Liberation Army.

While he welcomed increased US engagement in Asia, Mr Lorenzana said that he did not want the Philippines to once more become a ‘battleground for some superpower conflict’.

That was why President Duterte had insisted that the US not deploy weapons to the Philippines as part of a defence co-operation agreement with Washington that Manila ratified in 2016, he said.

The defence minister added that the rapprochement with Beijing had delivered economic benefits for Manila, even though the Philippines had also made more than 100 diplomatic protests against China’s actions in the South China Sea since 2016.

He said that since President Duterte took over, Chinese tourist numbers had increased, Beijing had dropped an embargo on Philippines bananas and Philippine fishermen

and military vessels were facing less harassment in contested waters.

‘We have to make a good situation out of a bad one,’ he said.

On the terrorism front, Mr Lorenzana said he was concerned that a recent spate of suicide bombings in Indonesia by families inspired by Isis could be a ‘game-changer’ for the region, which has been subject to sporadic attacks over the past few years.

‘We are worried that some copycats in the Philippines will do it [too],’ he said.

He said the Philippines was working with neighbouring Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore to share knowledge on ‘de-radicalising youth that have been affected by this Isis ideology’ and implementing ‘legislation to strength the fight against terrorism’. ©Financial Times Reprinted with permission

CNN 1 June 2018

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi speaks out against protectionism Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi declared that India is ready to help lead a free and fair Indo-Pacific in a landmark speech Friday, issuing veiled critiques of the region’s two biggest players: the United States and China.

In a speech that was short on specifics but big on ambition and lofty rhetoric, Modi hailed Asia as the future of the world economy, while stressing unity between the region’s powers amid global economic uncertainty. ‘(We must) recognize that each of us can serve our interests better when we work together as equals in the larger good of all nations,’ said Modi during his keynote address at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, an annual defense summit that draws security officials, academics and defense contractors from across the world.

Modi’s address marks the first time an Indian politician has been invited to open the annual summit and comes just months after he delivered the opening speech at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting at Davos in January.

Like he did at Davos, Modi championed the idea of free trade and economic integration, just days after US President Donald Trump slapped steel tariffs on some of Washington’s biggest economic partners. The move has sparked fears of a trade war.

‘Solutions cannot be found behind walls of protection, but in embracing change,’ said Modi. ‘What we seek is a level playing field for all. India stands for open and stable

international trade regime.’

Underscoring his point, Modi argued that no nation can shape the world on its own. ‘It is a world that summons us to rise above divisions and competition to work together,’ said Modi.

‘We believe that our common prosperity and security require us to evolve, through dialogue, a common rulesbased order for the region. And, it must equally apply to all individually as well as to the global commons,’ he said.

Delicate balancing act Modi is spending three days in the city-state following visits to Malaysia and Indonesia, a trip that analysts say is part of an effort to shore up ties with India’s neighbors as China seeks to expand its influence through its trillion dollar Belt and Road initiative.

‘India shares geostrategic interests with the Southeast Asian countries,’ said Bharat Karnad, a national security expert at the Center for Policy Research, a New Delhibased think tank.

‘He’s firming up India’s security relationships without conspicuously targeting China,’ said Karnard.

China’s Belt and Road project is meant to economically link much of Asia, but some – including many in New Delhi – believe Beijing is using the investments to expand its soft power and influence across the continent.

Despite India’s concerns regarding China’s motives when it comes to Belt and Road, relations between the world’s two most populous countries have strengthened in recent weeks after a tumultuous 2017 in which Beijing and New Delhi locked horns over a border dispute in the Himalayas.

Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in April for an informal two-day relationship-building summit in the Chinese city of Wuhan, an event widely interpreted as a diplomatic reset. Photographs of the two leaders showed them largely at ease, walking through the woods, drinking tea and enjoying a boat ride together.

‘India-China cooperation is expanding. Trade is growing. And, we have displayed maturity and wisdom in managing issues and ensuring a peaceful border,’ Modi said in his speech.

‘I firmly believe that, Asia and the world will have a better future when India and China work together in trust and confidence.’

Despite the praise for its neighbor, India has long viewed China’s moves in the region with caution, especially the militarization of islands in the South China Sea, where trillions of dollars worth of trade pass through each year.

‘India stands for a free, open, inclusive Indo-Pacific region, which embraces us all in a common pursuit of progress and prosperity. It includes all nations in this geography as also others beyond who have a stake in it,’ Modi said.

Selected press coverage

81

‘We should all be equally permitted to benefit from the use of common spaces on sea and in the air without discrimination. When we all agree to live by that code, our sea lanes will be pathways to prosperity and corridors to peace,’ he said.

Foreign speech, domestic audience With faltering poll numbers back home, Modi’s keynote speech in Singapore provided the prime minister with the ideal platform in which to address a domestic audience and bolster his standing among voters.

‘It’s part of his attempt to strengthen his reputation as a regional and international statesman who is listened to the world over,’ said Karnad.

India is gearing up to go the polls, with elections expected before May next year. Modi’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) though still dominant nationally, has failed to meet expectations in recent local elections.

The BJP failed to gain a majority in mid-May’s state-level election in Karnataka, a contest seen as a key barometer in the lead up to the national vote and suffered a loss in a closely watched by-election in the critical state of Uttar Pradesh this week.

Addressing voters in India directly, Modi linked India’s global integration to domestic prosperity, promising to sustain the country’s economic growth rate of ‘7.5% to 8% per year’ and transform India to ‘a New India by 2022.’ ©Cable Broadcasting Network Reprinted with permission

Straits Times 2 June 2018

Busy day of bilateral meetings ahead of Shangri-La Dialogue It was a day of firm handshakes and warm words as political leaders and defence chiefs met ahead of the Shangri-La Dialogue security conference.

Besides Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, United States Defence Secretary James Mattis and newly-minted Malaysian Defence Minister Mohamad Sabu also called on Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong at the Istana on Friday (June 1).

PM Lee congratulated Mr Mohamad on his appointment and talked about the close relations and extensive cooperation between the two countries. Mr Mohamad is on his first official visit here after his Pakatan Harapan coalition swept into power on May 9.

Mr Mattis and PM Lee reaffirmed the excellent and longstanding bilateral relations between Singapore and the US, and discussed regional security developments, including the importance of the US’ continued engagement of the Asia-Pacific.

82

The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

Mr Mattis had earlier met his Singapore counterpart, Dr Ng Eng Hen. Over breakfast, he stressed the continued commitment from the US to engaging countries in the region and the important role that Asean has to play as part of the US’ vision for a ‘free and open Indo-Pacific’.

The two men also talked about the situation in the Korean peninsula and the terrorism threat in South-east Asia, said a Defence Ministry statement.

Mr Mattis will speak at the Shangri-La Dialogue on Saturday (June 2) morning, where he is expected to explain the US’ regional role.

On Friday, Mr Mattis and Dr Ng co-chaired an informal meeting with South-east Asian defence ministers who have gathered in town for the conference.

They discussed the growing terror threat in the region, especially the dangers of returning fighters. They welcomed Singapore’s push as this year’s Asean chair to beef up counter-terrorism cooperation among the militaries, including sharing intelligence.

Dr Ng also met Lieutenant-General He Lei, vice-president of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Academy of Military Science, on Friday.

Both men reaffirmed their strong bilateral defence relationship. Dr Ng accepted Lt-Gen He’s invitation to this year’s Xiangshan Forum, a rival security conference to Shangri-La Dialogue, in September.

Both men welcomed the inaugural Asean-China Maritime Exercise later this year, which would bring Asean member states and Chinese navies closer.

The Singapore Armed Forces and the PLA interact regularly through port calls, bilateral exercises and exchanges of visits.

Dr Ng on Friday also met his counterparts from South Korea, Canada and New Zealand. ©Straits Times Reprinted with permission

Agencia EFE 2 June 2018

North Korea nuclear program, South China Sea key issues at Singapore summit Senior political leaders and delegates from around the world gathered on Saturday in Singapore for the second day of the three-day International Institute for Strategic Studies Shangri-La Dialogue, also known as the Asia Security Summit.

Dozens of leaders and officials were present for Saturday’s sessions, which focused on defense issues in the Asia-Pacific region, and which were held at the Shangri-La hotel in Singapore.

The first plenary session was given by United States Secretary of Defense General James N. Mattis, whose speech was titled ‘US leadership and the challenge of IndoPacific security.’

The secretary outlined US policy in the region by saying ‘The US strategy recognizes that no one nation can or should dominate the Indo-Pacific.’

Mattis went on to explain his country’s approach to North Korea’s nuclear program, of which he said the objective is the complete, verifiable, irreversible denuclearization of the Korean peninsula.

Efforts to achieve that objective have been ongoing for several years and US President Donald Trump has pledged to pursue it by, among other methods meeting with North Korea’s Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un in Singapore on June 12.

The US Defense Secretary added that China’s actions in the South China Sea ‘leads to questions over its goals’ with regards to the militarization of reclaimed islands which are subject to territorial disputes between several countries of the region.

The second plenary session was delivered by South Korea’s Minister of Defense Song Youngmoo, who touched on the crisis with his country’s northern neighbor.

Song praised Trump’s leadership in helping with the recent rapprochement between North and South Korea, who remain technically at war since open hostilities of the Korean War (1950–1953) ended in an armistice and not a peace treaty.

The minister said that dismantling Pyongyang’s nuclear program isn’t only of interest to South Korea and the US but is a security concern for the region and even the world.

Song also mentioned that if North Korea opens itself up to further reforms it will help lead to greater shared prosperity for the region.

Following Song, Japan’s Minister of Defense Itsunori Onodera gave a speech in which he urged North Korea to comply with United Nations resolutions barring missile tests and to dismantle its nuclear weapons program.

Onodera said that Japan can offer North Korea the assistance of Japanese weapons inspectors to ensure North Korean disarmament.

Among other speakers at Saturday’s event were Canada’s Minister of National Defence Harjit Singh Sajjan, Vietnam’s Minister of National Defence General Ngo Xuan Lich, the Minister of Defense of Indonesia Ryamizard Ryacudu, and his Australian counterpart Marise Payne.

The Shangri-La Dialogue has been held annually since 2002 and focuses on security, humanitarian and military concerns of the Asia-Pacific region. ©Agencia EFE Reprinted with permission

Asahi Shimbun (originally Reuters) 3 June 2018

Mattis says relief for N. Korea only after clear, irreversible steps to denuclearization U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said on Sunday North Korea will receive relief only after it takes clear and irreversible steps to end its nuclear program, adding it would be a bumpy road to a summit between U.S. and North Korean leaders.

The comments sought to address concern the United States may be rushing to strike a breakthrough in the unprecedented summit between the two leaders after U.S. President Donald Trump put the meeting back on track for June 12 in Singapore.

‘We can anticipate, at best, a bumpy road to the (negotiations),’ Mattis said at the start of a meeting with his South Korean and Japanese counterparts on the sidelines of Shangri-la dialogue in Singapore.

‘We will continue to implement all U.N Security Council resolutions on North Korea. North Korea will receive relief only when it demonstrates verifiable and irreversible steps to denuclearization,’ Mattis added.

Trump said on Friday he would hold the meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on June 12 in a dramatic turn of course in the high stakes diplomacy aimed at ending Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons program.

Eight days after canceling the summit citing Pyongyang’s ‘hostility,’ Trump announced the decision to go ahead with the meeting after hosting Kim’s envoy in the White House, saying he expected ‘very positive result’ with North Korea.

North Korea’s nuclear weapons program has been a source of major security tensions that persisted despite a series of U.N. and U.S. sanctions and it has also demonstrated advances in ballistic missile technology that experts believe now threatens the U.S. mainland.

Japanese Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera said that while the solution to the North Korean nuclear crisis must be diplomatic, the defense cooperation among the United States and its Asian allies was key to bringing it about.

‘Japan, Korea and the U.S. continue to agree that pressure is needed to be applied on North Korea,’ Onodera told reporters after his meeting with Mattis and South Korean Defense Minister Song Young-moo on the sidelines of the Shangri-la Dialogue.

Despite a long-standing security alliance between the United States and Japan, some people in Japan worry that the United States may cut a deal to protect its cities from nuclear attack by the North, while leaving Japan vulnerable.

North Korea has conducted six nuclear tests starting in 2006 but has declared it would no longer need such tests.

In May, it invited foreign journalists to witness what it said was the demolition of its nuclear test site.

Selected press coverage

83

The Trump administration wants the North to ‘denuclearize,’ meaning to get rid of its nuclear arsenal, in return for relief from economic sanctions.

But North Korea’s leadership is believed to regard nuclear weapons as crucial to its survival and has rejected unilaterally disarming.

Trump said one thing that could come out of the summit is an agreement formally ending the 1950–53 Korean War, which was concluded only with a truce, not a peace treaty. ©Asahi Shimbun / Reuters Reprinted with permission

Al Jazeera 3 June 2018

Defence officials debate N Korea’s commitment as summit looms The planned June 12 Trump-Kim summit took centre stage at the Asian security conference in Singapore.

Defence officials from countries around the world are worrying aloud that the June 12 US-North Korea summit may repeat failed efforts at denuclearising the Korean Peninsula.

Prospects for the historic meeting between President Donald Trump and North Korea leader Kim Jong-un took centre stage at a weekend Asian security conference attended by defence chiefs from over 40 countries, with sentiments ranging from guarded optimism to downright scepticism.

Song Young-moo, South Korea’s defence minister, called the Trump-Kim summit, to be held in politically neutral Singapore, a ‘precious opportunity’ for a new era of peace and economic prosperity in Northeast Asia.

‘I hope President Trump and Chairman Kim come to a historical agreement for complete denuclearisation and complete peace on the Korean Peninsula,’ Song said.

‘On multiple occasions, Chairman Kim has declared a desire for complete denuclearisation and President Trump to end hostilities and achieve economic cooperation.’

But Song acknowledged the failure of past international efforts to achieve denuclearisation. The collapse of nuclear agreements struck in 1994 and 2005 contributed to North Korea’s outcast status among world leaders.

‘There must be CVID (complete, verifiable and irreversible dismantlement), and it must be enforced, and I believe Kim Jong-un will embrace it,’ Song said.

Japanese Defence Minister Itsunori Onodera strongly doubted North Korea’s sincerity, insisting it must altogether end its nuclear and ballistic missile programmes.

‘We have seen history repeat where North Korea would declare to denuclearise, thereby portraying itself as conciliatory and forthcoming, only to turn around to void all international efforts toward peace,’ Onodera said.

84

The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

Onodera added, ‘In light of how North Korea has behaved in the past, I believe that it is important not to reward North Korea solely for agreeing to have a dialogue.’

Canadian Minister of National Defence Harjit Singh Sajjan also urged a verifiable dismantling of North Korea’s nuclear programme. ‘North Korea has failed to deliver on promises in the past, and the world should judge its sincerity by its actions,’ he said.

US Defence Secretary James Mattis acknowledged the high-stakes nature of the Trump-Kim US summit.

‘Obviously, the eyes of the world, the hopes of the world are on these talks,’ he said.

Mattis did not address concerns over Trump’s failure to consult regional partners on decisions such as the cancellation of the summit.

But on Sunday, he said that North Korea will ‘receive relief only after it takes clear and irreversible steps’ to end its nuclear programme.

The US defence secretary said he expected ‘at best, a bumpy road to the [neogitiaitons]’.

At the conference, Mattis also said that the presence of some 28,500 US forces based in South Korea ‘is not on the table … nor should it be,’ at the June 12 summit.

US troops have been stationed in South Korea since a 1953 armistice that left the two Koreas technically still at war. South Korean President Moon Jae-in supports an ongoing US troop presence, while North Korea has long sought a withdrawal.

‘Obviously, if the diplomats can do their work, if we can reduce the threat, if we can restore confidence-building measures with something verifiable, then, of course, these kinds of issues can come up,’ Mattis said.

US–China tensions Also at the conference – formally called the Shangri-La Dialogue, and organised by the International Institute for Strategic Studies – the US and China exchanged harsh words over China’s military build-up in the South China Sea, one of the world’s busiest and most bitterly contested waterways, through which five trillion dollars in shipping trade passes annually.

For the last several years, China has engaged in a rapid construction of artificial islands with military facilities and weapons systems.

‘Despite China’s claims to the contrary, the placement of these weapon systems is tied directly to military use for the purposes of intimidation and coercion,’ Mattis said.

Mattis’ comments met fierce disagreement from a Chinese general at the forum.

‘Any irresponsible comments from other countries cannot be accepted,’ said Lieutenant General He Lei, asserting that China has the right to deploy troops and weapons ‘on its own territory’. ©Al Jazeera Reprinted with permission

The Washington Post 6 June 2018

Trump’s Indo-Pacific strategy: Where’s the beef?

The Trump administration has rolled out its new IndoPacific strategy, meant to reshape America’s regional approach and coalesce efforts to manage a rising China. But allies and adversaries alike are left wondering if the United States really has the will and resources to make it happen.

‘Everybody is asking, where’s the beef?’ a senior Chinese People’s Liberation Army officer said on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue, an annual meeting of defense officials, lawmakers, experts and journalists hosted by the International Institute for Strategic Studies. The event is a rare chance to hear directly from senior Chinese officials.

They don’t like the idea of President Trump’s new IndoPacific strategy, but they aren’t taking it very seriously yet.

In China’s view, its military expansion in the South China Sea and increased presence in the Indian Ocean are benign, so the United States and its allies shouldn’t do anything to respond. On the economic side, the Chinese believe America and its partners have no capacity to compete with Beijing’s multi-trillion-dollar One Belt One Road Initiative, so they aren’t much concerned with U.S. complaints about it.

Of course, neither the United States nor its Asian allies see Chinese military and economic aggression as benign.

But there’s no consensus about what to do about it. And there’s no common understanding about how the Trump administration plans to back up its words with action.

At the conference, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Defense Secretary Jim Mattis laid out their different views of what ‘Indo-Pacific’ means. Both focused on building an open and free system that upholds the rights of countries and the rule of law, and promotes prosperity. But Modi was clear in saying India is not interested in alliances aimed at containing China.

‘India does not see the Indo-Pacific region as a strategy or as a club of limited members. Nor as a grouping that seeks to dominate,’ Modi said. ‘And by no means do we consider it as directed against any country. A geographical definition, as such, cannot be.’

Mattis pointed to the Trump administration’s National Security Strategy and National Defense Strategy, which call out China as a ‘revisionist power’ and a ‘strategic competitor,’ respectively. He protested China’s military aggression in the South China Sea and suggested its economic policy was predatory. He also said China’s rise should be welcomed if Beijing is willing to play by the rules.

Mattis promised to implement Trump’s Indo-Pacific strategy by reinvigorating American investment, working to strengthen the rule of law, increasing attention to the

maritime space and deepening alliances. Many conference attendees from partner countries and the United States told me that Mattis’s speech sounded reassuring, but there is still a huge gap between U.S. pledges and what they are seeing on the ground.

‘While the region welcomes the aspirations of the IndoPacific strategy as a sign of broader strategy and regional engagement, the challenge right now is that it’s just aspirational – a set of goals with no real strategy, policy enumeration or implantation plan, let alone resourcing and budget,’ said one congressional aide who attended the Dialogue.

The Trump team is threatening several regional allies with tariffs or sanctions. Trump’s on-again, off-again, onagain diplomacy with North Korea has allies worried the American president isn’t properly prepared to head into a delicate and hugely consequential negotiation.

Also, there hasn’t been a real shift of U.S. military focus on the region. On his way to Singapore, Mattis stopped in Hawaii and presided over the renaming of Pacific Command, which will now be called U.S. Indo-Pacific Command. The actual responsibilities of the command didn’t change, just the name. Trump frequently talks about withdrawing U.S. troops from the region. Mattis disinvited China from a multilateral naval exercise, but China’s military takeover of large swaths of the South China Sea seems permanent.

After withdrawing from Trans-Pacific Partnership, the Trump administration has done almost nothing to show the region it has a proactive trade policy. The Trump administration criticizes China’s One Belt One Road initiative but hasn’t presented developing countries in the region a viable alternative to Chinese funds. Without a real trade and economic strategy, America’s overall strategic leadership isn’t credible.

The Trump administration risks making the same mistake that the Obama administration made with its ‘rebalance’ or ‘pivot’ to Asia – raising expectations and then under-delivering. Sen. David Perdue (R-Ga.), who attended the conference, told me that the United States needs a regional strategy that spans multiple administrations.

‘When we’re up against ‘China, Inc.’ who thinks in terms of millennia, we cannot limit ourselves to thinking in fiscal quarters, or four- to eight-year administrations,’ he said.

‘We need a plan for the long haul to ensure that our nation maintains its leadership and strategic role in the Indo-Pacific region that covers defense, diplomacy and economics.’

Trump administration officials say the details of its Asia strategy are coming soon. That doesn’t reassure the countries of the region, which are already doubting America’s credibility and reliability. The Chinese certainly aren’t waiting for us to figure it out. ©The Washington Post Reprinted with permission

Selected press coverage

85

APPENDIX II

Selected IISS publications

The Adelphi series is the Institute’s principal contribution to policy-relevant, original academic research. Books published since 2013 include: Potter, William C. and Bidgood, Sarah, Once and Future Partners: The United States, Russia and Nuclear Nonproliferation. Adelphi 464–465. Routledge for the IISS, 2018.

Hamill, James, Africa’s Lost Leader: South Africa’s Continental Role Since Apartheid. Adelphi 463. Routledge for the IISS, 2018.

Doyle, James E., Renewing America’s Nuclear Arsenal: Options for the 21st Century. Adelphi 462. Routledge for the IISS, 2017.

Barry, Ben, Harsh Lessons: Iraq, Afghanistan and the Changing Character of War. Adelphi 461. Routledge for the IISS, 2017.

Charap, Samuel and Colton, Timothy J., Everyone Loses: The Ukraine Crisis and the Ruinous Contest for Post-Soviet Eurasia.

Adelphi 460. Routledge for the IISS, 2017.

Puri, Samir, Fighting and Negotiating with Armed Groups.

Adelphi 459. Routledge for the IISS, 2016.

Ganson, Brian and Wennmann, Achim, Business and Conflict in Fragile States. Adelphi 457–458. Routledge for the IISS, 2016.

86

The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

Inkster, Nigel, China’s Cyber Power. Adelphi 456. Routledge for the IISS, 2016.

Fitzpatrick, Mark, Asia’s Latent Nuclear Powers: Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. Adelphi 455. Routledge for the IISS, 2016.

Parello-Plesner, Jonas and Duchâtel, Mathieu, China’s Strong Arm: Protecting Citizens and Assets Abroad. Adelphi 451.

Routledge for the IISS, 2015.

Lewis, Jeffrey, Paper Tigers: China’s Nuclear Posture. Adelphi 446. Routledge for the IISS, 2014.

Friedberg, Aaron L., Beyond Air-Sea Battle: The Debate over US Military Strategy in Asia. Adelphi 444. Routledge for the IISS, 2014.

Barthwal-Datta, Monika, Food Security in Asia: Challenges, Policies and Implications. Adelphi 441–442. Routledge for the IISS, 2014.

Hokayem, Emile, Syria’s Uprising and the Fracturing of the Levant. Adelphi 438. Routledge for the IISS, 2013.

Le Mière, Christian and Raine, Sarah, Regional Disorder: The South China Sea Disputes. Adelphi 436–437. Routledge for the IISS, 2013.

The IISS Strategic Dossier series harnesses the Institute’s technical expertise to present detailed information on key strategic issues. Recent publications include: Asia-Pacific Regional Security Assessment 2018: Key developments and trends. IISS, 2018.

Asia-Pacific Regional Security Assessment 2017: Key developments and trends. IISS, 2017.

Asia-Pacific Regional Security Assessment 2016: Key developments and trends. IISS, 2016.

Missile-defence Cooperation in the Gulf. IISS, 2016.

Asia-Pacific Regional Security Assessment 2015: Key developments and trends. IISS, 2015.

Evolution of the Cyber Domain: The Implications for National and Global Security. IISS, 2015.

Regional Security Assessment 2014: Key developments and trends in Asia-Pacific security. IISS, 2014.

‘The North Korea crisis’. Strategic Comments, vol. 23, no. 31, September 2017.

‘US–China dialogue and the tenuous bilateral relationship’.

Strategic Comments, vol. 23, no. 21, June 2017.

‘South Korea’s presidential transition and strategic challenges’.

Strategic Comments, vol. 23, no. 19, June 2017.

‘China–North Korea relations and the 19th Party Congress’.

Strategic Comments, vol. 23, no. 12, April 2017.

‘The Islamic State and Southeast Asia’. Strategic Comments, vol.

22, no. 36, November 2016.

‘China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea’. Strategic Comments, vol. 22, no. 34, November 2016.

‘North Korea: US and allied military options’. Strategic Comments, vol. 22, no. 33, November 2016.

‘The Philippines: Duterte’s wilful start’. Strategic Comments, vol. 22, no. 31, October 2016.

North Korean Security Challenges: A net assessment. IISS, 2011.

‘North Korea’s fifth nuclear test’. Strategic Comments, vol. 22, no. 29, October 2016.

The FARC Files: Venezuela, Ecuador and the Secret Archive of ‘Raúl Reyes’. IISS, 2011.

‘Turbulence in the Taiwan Strait’. Strategic Comments, vol. 22, no. 23, August 2016.

Iran’s Nuclear, Chemical and Biological Capabilities: A net assessment. IISS, 2011.

‘Pakistan: a more positive trajectory’. Strategic Comments, vol.

22, no. 20, July 2016.

Iran’s Ballistic Missile Capabilities: A net assessment. IISS, 2010.

‘China’s shaky trade figures and their ramifications’. Strategic Comments, vol. 22, no. 10, May 2016.

Preventing Nuclear Dangers in Southeast Asia and Australasia.

IISS, 2009.

Nuclear Programmes in the Middle East: In the shadow of Iran.

IISS, 2008.

Strategic Comments is the Institute’s online source of analysis of international security and politicomilitary issues. Articles focused on South, Southeast and Northeast Asia published between December 2015 and August 2018 include: ‘North Korea’s military power’. Strategic Comments, vol. 24, no.

24, August 2018.

‘The evolution of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation’.

Strategic Comments, vol. 24, no. 19, June 2018.

‘Thailand’s political direction’. Strategic Comments, vol. 24, no.

12, April 2018.

‘China’s evolving role in African security’. Strategic Comments, vol. 24, no. 3, January 2018.

‘The Rohingya crisis’. Strategic Comments, vol. 23, no. 36, October 2017.

‘US Afghanistan policy: regional aspects’. Strategic Comments, vol. 23, no. 34, October 2017.

‘The Trump administration’s Afghanistan policy’. Strategic Comments, vol. 23, no. 23, September 2017.

‘China’s energy policy: new technology and civil nuclear expansion’. Strategic Comments, vol. 22, no. 3, March 2016.

‘Myanmar: the challenges of power’. Strategic Comments, vol.

21, no. 38, December 2015.

‘India’s new maritime strategy’. Strategic Comments, vol. 21, no. 37, December 2015.

The Military Balance is the Institute’s annual assessment of military capabilities and defence economics worldwide.

Region-by-region analyses cover the major military and economic trends and developments affecting security policy and the trade in weapons and other military equipment. Comprehensive tables portray key data on weapons and defence economics. Defence expenditure trends over a ten-year period are also shown.

The Military Balance 2018. Routledge for the IISS, 2018.

Armed Conflict Survey is the Institute’s annual review of political, military and humanitarian trends in current conflicts.

Armed Conflict Survey 2018. Routledge for the IISS, 2018.

Selected press coverage

87

Survival: Global Politics and Strategy, the Institute’s bi-monthly journal, is a leading forum for analysis and debate of international and strategic affairs.

Recent articles of interest include: Bruce Bennet, James Dobbins, Jeffrey W. Hornung and Andrew Scobell, ‘After the Summit: Prospects for the Korean Peninsula’, Survival, vol. 60, no. 4, August–September 2018, pp. 21–28.

Mark Fitzpatrick, ‘Kim Jong-un’s Singapore Sting’, Survival, vol. 60, no. 4, August–September 2018, pp. 29–36.

Aaron L. Friedberg, ‘Competing with China’, Survival, vol. 60, no. 3, June–July 2018, pp. 7–64.

Nigel Inkster, ‘Chinese Culture and Soft Power’, Survival, vol.

60, no. 3, June–July 2018, pp. 65–70.

Andrew B. Kennedy, ‘China’s Innovation Trajectories’, Survival, vol. 60, no. 3, June–July 2018, pp. 71–86.

Rahul Roy-Chaudhury and Kate Sullivan de Estrada, ‘India, the Indo-Pacific and the Quad’, Survival, vol. 60, no. 3, June–July 2018, pp. 181–194.

Robert Ayson and Manjeet S. Pardesi, ‘Asia’s Diplomacy of Violence: China–US Coercion and Regional Order’, Survival, vol. 59, no. 2, April–May 2017, pp. 85–124.

Samuel Charap, John Drennan and Pierre Noël, ‘Russia and China: A New Model of Great-Power Relations’, Survival, vol. 59, no. 1, February–March 2017, pp. 25–42.

William Choong, ‘Trump and the Asia-Pacific: Managing Contradictions’, Survival, vol. 59, no. 1, February–March 2017, pp. 181–187.

Lora Saalman, ‘Little Grey Men: China and the Ukraine Crisis’, Survival, vol. 58, no. 6, December 2016–January 2017, pp.

135–156.

Shashank Joshi, ‘Raiders in Kashmir: India’s Pakistan Problem’, Survival, vol. 58. No. 6, December 2016–January 2017, pp. 195–208.

David C. Gompert and Bruce H. Stover, ‘Creating a Sino-US Energy Relationship’, Survival, vol. 58, no. 4, August– September 2016, pp. 63–69.

Aaron L. Friedberg, ‘Globalisation and Chinese Grand Strategy’, Survival, vol. 60, no. 1, February–March 2018, pp.

7–40.

Strategic Survey is the Institute’s annual review of strategic developments throughout the world.

Recent sections of interest include:

Gordon Barrass and Nigel Inkster, ‘Xi Jinping: the Strategist Behind the Dream’, Survival, vol. 60, no. 1, February–March 2018, pp. 41–68.

‘China’s preparations for the 19th Party Congress’, Strategic Survey 2017.

Ben Barry, ‘Pakistan’s Tactical Nuclear Weapons: Practical Drawbacks and Opportunity Costs’, Survival, vol. 60, no. 1, February–March 2018, pp. 75–81.

Michael Elleman, ‘The Secret to North Korea’s ICBM Success’, Survival, vol. 59, no. 5, October–November 2017, pp. 25–36.

Christopher D. Kolenda, ‘America’s Generals Are Out of Ideas for Afghanistan’, Survival, vol. 59, no. 5, October– November 2017, pp. 37–46.

Tim Huxley and Benjamin Schreer, ‘Trump’s Missing Asia Strategy’, Survival, vol. 59, no. 3, June–July 2017, pp. 81–89.

88

The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

‘Japan’s expanding security role’, Strategic Survey 2017.

‘Escalating instability on the Korean Peninsula’, Strategic Survey 2017.

‘Relative calm in the South China Sea’, Strategic Survey 2017.

‘India’s expanding security and development role’, Strategic Survey 2017.

‘Challenges to CPEC’, Strategic Survey 2017.

‘Intensifying competition in Afghanistan’, Strategic Survey 2017.

The IISS wishes to thank these sponsors of the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue 2018

LEAD SPONSORS

MAIN SPONSORS

17TH IISS ASIA SECURITY SUMMIT

The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue Since the inception of the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue in 2002, this unique experiment in multilateral defence diplomacy has involved defence ministers, deputy ministers, chiefs of defence staff, national security advisers, permanent undersecretaries, intelligence chiefs and other national security and defence officials from: Argentina, Australia, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Brazil, Brunei, Cambodia, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, the European Union, Fiji, Finland, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Japan, Republic of Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Mexico, Mongolia, Myanmar, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, the Philippines, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Spain, Sri Lanka, Sweden, Switzerland, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Tonga, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, the United States and Vietnam.

The result has been the growth of the Shangri-La Dialogue into the richest gathering of defence professionals in the Asia-Pacific. The goal of the IISS is to ensure that the Shangri-La Dialogue will continue to serve as the best available vehicle in the Asia-Pacific for developing and channelling astute and effective public policy on defence and security.

The IISS, a registered charity with offices in London, Washington, Manama and Singapore, is the world’s leading authority on political–military conflict. It is the primary independent source of accurate, objective information on international strategic issues. Publications include The Military Balance, an annual reference work on each nation’s defence capabilities; Strategic Survey, an annual review of world affairs; Survival: Global Politics and Strategy, a bi‑monthly journal on international affairs; Strategic Comments, offering online analysis of topical issues in international affairs; and the Adelphi book series, the Institute’s principal contribution to policy-relevant, original academic research.

The range of IISS publications, its convening power, and the Institute’s strong international policy perspective make the IISS a key actor in the global strategic and economic debate.

‘I consider [the Shangri-La Dialogue to be] the best opportunity for senior officials to meet, share perspectives and reinforce the significance of a free and open Indo-Pacific region, and in particular to speak to how we will work together to sustain that vision.’

James Mattis, Secretary of Defense, United States ‘It really allows me to be part of that wider security dialogue ... and allows our officials to build those relationships as well, which [is] uniquely provided for looking at the challenges here in the Asia-Pacific.’

Harjit Singh Sajjan, Minister of National Defence, Canada ‘If you are concerned about security matters, particularly within the Indo-Pacific region ... then this is the place where you get to hear the views and understand the respective positions of all of those countries that share those concerns.’

Ron Mark, Minister of Defence, New Zealand

The International Institute for Strategic Studies Arundel House | 6 Temple Place | London | wc2r 2pg | UK t. +44 (0) 20 7379 7676 f. +44 (0) 20 7836 3108 e. iiss@iiss.org w. www.iiss.org

The International Institute for Strategic Studies – Americas 2121 K Street NW | Suite 801 | Washington, DC 20037 | USA t. +1 202 659 1490 f. +1 202 659 1499 e. iiss-americas@iiss.org

The International Institute for Strategic Studies – Asia 9 Raffles Place | #51-01 Republic Plaza | Singapore 048619 t. +65 6499 0055 f. +65 6499 0059 e. iiss-asia@iiss.org

The International Institute for Strategic Studies – Middle East

14th floor, GBCORP Tower | Bahrain Financial Harbour | Manama | Kingdom of Bahrain t. +973 1718 1155 f. +973 1710 0155 e. iiss-middleeast@iiss.org