IISS Newsletter October 2014

IISS news

October 2014

IISS Global Strategic Review . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

Security and Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

www.facebook.com/TheIISS

IISS Fullerton Forum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

IISS–US . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

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Events . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

Membership . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

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Non-Proliferation and Disarmament . . . . . . . . . 16

IISS–Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

www.iiss.org/iissvoices

Transnational Threats and Political Risk . . . . . . 17

Defence and Military Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

South Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

Obituary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21

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The 11th IISS Global Strategic Review

Carl Bildt, Minister for Foreign Affairs, Sweden

Bård Glad Pedersen, State Secretary, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Norway

The last time the IISS convened in Oslo, 25 years

Sweden, and Bård Glad Pedersen, State Secretary,

must react assertively to Russia’s intervention in its

ago, coincided with the opening of the Hungary–

Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Norway, presented

Western neighbour: Ukraine was not a pawn in a

Austria border to East Germans pushing West

Nordic perspectives on European security.

game of chess but a sovereign nation with the right to determine its own path.

and the breach of the Berlin Wall. A quarter-cen-

Glad Pedersen pointed to rapid change in

tury later, comparable questions concerning an

Europe’s security environment in both its south-

Bildt argued that persistent instability in

upended European if not global order were once

ern and eastern neighbourhoods. At a time when

Europe’s neighbourhood and beyond is reordering

more the subject of discussion at the 11th Global

fundamental elements of Europe’s security order

the strategic priorities for Europe. Governments

Strategic Review (GSR), convened on 19–21

are under threat because of Russia’s actions in

must realise that Russia has become, and will

September 2014 under the rubric ‘Geopolitical

Ukraine, it is up to NATO and EU member states

remain for the time being, a revisionist power. The

Risks and Geo-economic Opportunities’.

to ‘safeguard the basic pillars of the international

implications are not limited to Europe, Bildt said.

security order’, and not to abandon them. A crucial

Rather, the legitimacy of the global security order

Keynote Session on Nordic Perspectives on

pillar is respect for international law, from which

is at stake and the foreign minister believed that

European Security

both small and large states benefit. According

addressing ‘the return of geopolitics’ and avoiding

Both Sweden and Norway are Host Nation

to the state secretary, the High North, an area of

the ‘spread of global disorder’ is destined to be a

Supporters of the GSR, which in 2013 took place in

strategic interest from a Nordic perspective and

long-term task. With regard to the Russia–Ukraine

Stockholm. This year’s opening keynote session was

one that involves Russia, shows that through coop-

crisis, Bildt insisted that sanctions against Russia

held at the imposing Oslo City Hall and chaired by

eration, trade and confidence-building measures,

had to be matched by strong support for Ukraine

Dr John Chipman, IISS Director-General and Chief

conflict and a ‘race for resources’ can be avoided.

as the country goes about economic and political

Executive. Carl Bildt, Minister for Foreign Affairs of

However, Glad Pedersen stressed that the West

reform and attempts to battle corruption. Bildt

GLOBAL STRATEGIC REVIEW

POLITICAL RISK/RISK ANALYSIS

UKRAINE

RUSSIA

(l–r) Carl Bildt, Minister for Foreign Affairs, Sweden; Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS; and Bård Glad Pedersen, State Secretary, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Norway

concluded that strategic realities have created

Samuel Charap, IISS Senior Fellow for

EU and Ukraine needed to include special pro-

a ‘new sense of exposure and vulnerability’ in

Russia and Eurasia, agreed with Heisbourg on

visions for the exchange of goods, capital and

Europe. On balance, Europe is heading towards

the problematic nature of a sanctions strategy: it

people across the Ukraine–Russia border. More

a more difficult security future.

‘focused largely on punishing Russia rather than

broadly, the West might contain Russian adven-

addressing problems that led to this impasse’.

turism, but it should shed any illusions about

Keynote Session on the International System

There is a need for balance between sanction-

solving Russia’s internal problems.

and the Ukraine Crisis

ing bad behaviour and leaving doors open to

The Ukraine keynote session was chaired by

a solution. IISS Council Member Igor Yurgens,

First Plenary – The Transformation of the

Adam Ward, Director of Studies of the IISS.

who is Chairman of the Moscow-based Institute

Geopolitical and Geo-economic Order in the

Professor François Heisbourg, Chairman of

for Contemporary Development, assessed the

Middle East

the IISS Council, argued in his address that the

pluses and minuses of the crisis from Moscow’s

The rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham

Ukraine crisis is fundamentally different from

perspective. On the positive side, the possibility

(ISIS) has both exposed and exacerbated the

other post-Cold War crises because the formal

of ruling out NATO membership for Ukraine

grave structural weaknesses and political con-

incorporation of territory by a predator state

might be on the table, and Putin has boosted

tradictions of Middle Eastern states. The crisis

was an ‘exceedingly rare act’, signalling that

his popularity and consolidated his leadership.

of legitimacy of governing Arab elites and the

Russia is exiting the post-Cold War system. In

On the negative side, this has come at a huge

weakening of states have created vacuums

Heisbourg’s opinion, this emanated from the

economic price – possibly $200 billion in 2014

increasingly filled by extremist, revisionist

widely held view in Moscow of the ‘Versailles-

alone. There will be a creeping renationalisation

actors.

like punishment of Russia’ following the

of oil and gas industries, further damaging the

Former Iraqi deputy prime minister Dr

collapse of the Soviet Union. In Moscow’s act

economy, as a consequence of sanctions. Russia

Barham Salih noted that the challenge to post-

of rebellion against this punishment, the ‘West’s

meanwhile finds itself in a weak overall posi-

First World War borders in the Middle East did

rulebook no longer applies’. The crisis would

tion: it has 200 million people and 2% of global

not come from communities with old grievances

likely last for a long time because, ‘it is not about

GDP, compared to the ‘consolidated West’s’ 1bn

but from a new, extremist Islamist movement,

[Russian President Vladimir] Putin, not even

people and 40% of global GDP.

namely ISIS. Roula Khalaf, Foreign Editor of

about the regime, it is about Russia’. The West’s

Comments from the floor were balanced

the Financial Times, reflected on the dashed

strategy should be to strengthen Ukraine just

between those who doubted that anything like

hopes of the Arab uprisings and referred to the

as Finland and Yugoslavia were supported by

a no-NATO-membership guarantee would

region as a ‘comprehensive mess’. Failing states

the West in the Cold War. The analogy also sug-

stop Russia’s depredations, and those who

such as Syria and Iraq are cohabiting with the

gests one important concession: the ‘goal should

wondered if such a concession offered much

increasingly autocratic Gulf states and regional

be a strong neutral Ukraine’. Ruling out NATO

earlier could have headed off the conflict. There

dynamics, she explained, and are shaped by

membership just might be part of a solution that

was also a question of whether the eastward

an Iranian–Saudi cold war. This is taking dan-

Moscow could accept. Heisbourg added that

expansion of EU influence is considered, by

gerous and enduring sectarian forms and is

leaving the NATO question ‘in abeyance … can

Russia, to be as threatening as NATO expan-

exacerbated by the nuclear talks. The struggle

only worry the Russians without reassuring the

sion. In response, Yurgens reiterated that any

over the future of political Islam – with Saudi

Ukrainians’.

revived Association Agreement between the

Arabia, the UAE and Egypt vying against the

2

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OCTOBER 2014

IISS NEWS

IRAN

SYRIA

IRAQ

MIDDLE EAST

GLOBAL STRATEGIC REVIEW

(l–r) Professor François Heisbourg, Chairman of the Council, IISS; Dr Igor Yurgens, Chairman, Institute of Contemporary Development; Member of the Council, IISS; Dr Samuel Charap, Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia, IISS–US; and Adam Ward, Director of Studies, IISS

Qatar- and Turkey-backed Muslim Brotherhood

Second Plenary – Iran: Towards an Endgame?

decision to isolate nuclear talks from other

– is also a key factor. Such fault lines complicate

The Second Plenary Session assessed the pros-

geopolitical concerns. Any linkage would be

any sustainable response to ISIS.

pects of converting the interim nuclear deal

anathema to the way in which the nuclear talks

Toby Dodge, Senior IISS Consulting Fellow

between Tehran and the P5+1 powers – com-

have been conducted so far and largely super-

for the Middle East, insisted that the combina-

posed of China, France, Germany, Russia, the

ficial. More fundamentally, competing interests

tion of weak, failing and failed states was the

United Kingdom and the United States – into a

and visions over developments in Syria, Gaza

defining strategic issue in the Middle East. As

final one. The speakers held contrasting views

and Yemen are not favourable to a broader

a case in point, he detailed the failings of the

on how achievable a goal this is. However,

US–Iran strategic reconciliation in the region.

Iraqi state since the US invasion of 2003 and

all agreed that the complexity of events in the

Salamé concluded that a deal was still possible

explained how key Sunni communities, having

region is such that war against Iran over its

but the more likely alternative would be a deci-

lost trust in the central government, turned to

nuclear capacity and ambitions is now less

sion to roll over negotiations or, short of this, a

sectarian and communal players for protection,

likely. For now, no major player, including

return to sanctions policy.

order and services. Rather than hard partition

Israel, has a clear interest in initiating a major

Dr Gary Samore – Former White House

into homogenous states, he predicted that no

state-to-state armed confrontation in the region.

Coordinator for Arms Control and Weapons of

new, homogenous state would emerge from the

Seyed Hossein Mousavian, the former Head

Mass Destruction – lauded the ‘sensible ways’

of Iran’s Foreign Relations Committee, stated

in which negotiators have learned to engage

Salih, Khalaf and Dodge agreed that ISIS

that a return to sanctions policy would result in

with each other over the course of the negotia-

was a symptom of the failure of state-building,

failure. By contrast, the interim deal has deliv-

tions. This includes a shift towards US–Iranian

ailing societies and Western policies in the Arab

ered remarkably positive results which must be

bilateral meetings because the P5+1 format was

world. Corruption, crises of institutions and

safeguarded, including Iran’s moves to convert

too cumbersome. Any deal would therefore

lack of services have shaken the trust of citizens

enriched uranium to oxide fuel, halt the instal-

have to be between Washington and Tehran

in their states and benefitted extremist players.

lation of centrifuges, and commit to no further

and subsequently ratified by the broader P5+1

ISIS’s rise was no surprise.

reprocessing of nuclear fuel rods. Mousavian

grouping. However, the two countries are still

The response to ISIS will be challenging:

went on to explain that a broader dialogue, on

very far apart on agreeing Iran’s status as a

Salih described the coalition against ISIS as

the basis of a common agenda with the West

‘threshold state’ in the non-proliferation regime.

‘the alliance of the unwilling and the hesitant’.

over the security deterioration in Iraq as well

Washington has demanded Iran reduce its exist-

Khalaf described ISIS as a virus and Syria as

as Afghanistan, might help bridge deep-rooted

ing enrichment capacity and cap it for 20 years.

its biggest victim but recognised the complex-

mistrust between the parties. He stressed the

Iran continues to insist on building its civilian

ity of fighting ISIS in Syria. Intervention in Iraq

political nature of the impasse with regard to

nuclear capacity through a much larger indus-

was relatively easy given the request of the

the nuclear negotiations.

trial-scale programme. A compromise is still

current turmoil.

government and the presence of local partners,

Professor Ghassan Salamé, Dean of the Paris

possible, but in Samore’s view neither side is in

two ingredients sorely missing in Syria. Dodge

School of International Affairs at Sciences Po

a position to make fundamental concessions in

advised that the solution in Iraq requires inclu-

and Member of the IISS Council, reminded del-

order to achieve a final deal. The status quo is

sive governance and the decentralisation of

egates that one of the key tenets that had helped

not perfect, but remains tolerable for all sides.

power, not just resorting to force.

negotiators reach an interim agreement was the

We may therefore expect to see a renewal of an

IISS NEWS

OCTOBER 2014 | 3

GLOBAL STRATEGIC REVIEW

UKRAINE

RUSSIA

ENERGY SECURITY

(l–r) Dr Nicholas Redman, Director of Editorial; Senior Fellow for Geopolitical Risk and Economic Security, IISS; Dr Barham Salih, Former Prime Minister, Kurdistan Regional Government, Iraq; Roula Khalaf, Foreign Editor, Financial Times; and Professor Toby Dodge, Consulting Senior Fellow for the Middle East, IISS

interim agreement involving additional actions

theme was the need for fundamental political

Trade Agreement (DCFTA) commit Ukraine to

for Tehran in return for further sanctions relief.

and economic reform. Arguably, the authori-

legally binding change, because they recognised

ties have a unique chance because the Maidan

that external pressure was needed to overcome

Special Session One – The Political, Economic

protests were mainly against the corrupt politi-

resistance to reform. Implementation of the

and Strategic Future of Ukraine

cal model; society has thus far shown tolerance

agreements, which will be delayed and may

Four themes dominated the discussion of

or even appetite for change. However, Ukraine

never be completed, would bring Ukraine into

Ukraine’s strategic future. Firstly, it was argued

seems to lack the capacity and strategy to

line with up to 90% of the single market’s rules.

that reconciliation between the east and west

effect a fundamental overhaul of the oligar-

However, there is concern that the EU is not

of the country is imperative to overcome long-

chic and political model. The best prospect

ready to extend the assistance that Ukraine will

standing divisions in society and to transfer

seems to rest with the EU: Ukrainian negotia-

need to implement the AA in crisis conditions.

the conflict we have witnessed in 2014 from

tors requested that the Association Agreement

The third theme was urgent challenges.

the military to the political realm. The second

(AA) and the Deep and Comprehensive Free-

Ukraine is unprepared for winter. It has stopped

(l–r) Seyed Hossein Mousavian, Former Head, Foreign Relations Committee, Supreme National Security Council, Iran; Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS; Professor Ghassan Salamé, Dean, Paris School of International Affairs, Sciences Po; and Dr Gary Samore, Former White House Coordinator for Arms Control and Weapons of Mass Destruction

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OCTOBER 2014

IISS NEWS

CYBER SECURITY

EGYPT

GLOBAL STRATEGIC REVIEW

tax on high earners, are significant and reflect the regime’s commitment to a new paradigm: enshrining social justice in economic development. In the long term, Egypt’s two main challenges consist of tackling its high levels of poverty and food insecurity.

Special Session Three – International Efforts to Secure the Cyber Domain The cyber domain now stands at a critical juncture in terms of technology and policy, with technological developments outpacing policy.

Speakers agreed that decisions taken now in both arenas and in the intersection between them would have an impact for decades to come. There have never been a greater number of damaging cyber incidents, with more actors Mass protests in Kiev, February 2014 (Palinchak/Dreamstime.com)

and more targets demonstrating sophisticated attack tools and vectors. The cyber domain is becoming militarised with a trend towards

importing gas from Russia and has barely

their total eradication and another demanding

more strategic use of military cyber tools amid

enough in storage or domestic production to

their gradual political integration. It was noted

a climate of mistrust. The current inability of

meet internal demand. One solution would be

that political repression, which initially tar-

states to determine adequately what military

to burn more coal, but 80% of the country’s coal

geted the ousted President Muhammad Morsi

cyber capabilities other states possess creates

comes from the Donbas. Electricity imports will

and Muslim Brotherhood supporters, is now

conditions for an escalatory spiral with implica-

also be needed but Europe cannot provide them.

expanding to other opposition and civil activ-

tions far beyond the purely military dimension.

Thus there is a pressing need to resolve energy-

ists. The overthrow of old operators has also

On a more positive note, there is now more

trade disputes with Russia. Beyond the winter,

led to a fractured security landscape. In par-

top-level policy understanding of cyber issues,

Ukrainian and EU officials have until the end

ticular, there is growing insecurity along the

which are no longer seen as matters purely for

of 2015 to reach agreement with Russia on how

borders with Sudan, Libya and Gaza because

the technical community, and there has been

Ukrainian–Russian trade will be conducted once

of discontent among border communities: this

progress in international negotiations on cyber

Ukraine opens to EU goods under the DCFTA.

is reflected in increased trafficking of humans,

governance and cyber security. There are still

Without this, many Ukrainian enterprises will

arms and illicit goods.

major differences of approach between the US

be cut off from their traditional market in the

Delegates agreed it is too early to predict

and its allies who argue for the status quo and

east. This relates to the final theme: the need

the success of Egypt’s recent economic reforms.

states such as China and Russia advocating a

for reconciliation between Ukraine and the EU

Gains from the energy subsidy reform could be

top-down governance model focused on infor-

and US on one hand, and Russia on the other.

channelled toward health and education. Other

mation security – i.e. control of online content.

Ukraine cannot be stabilised without a construc-

fiscal reforms, such as imposing the 5% income

Progress had been made at the UN where the

tive contribution from Russia – economically, financially and politically. This in turn seems unlikely without some agreement that would

A demonstration in Tahrir Square, Cairo, February 2011

address Russia’s concerns about the possibility of further NATO enlargement.

Special Session Two – Egypt’s Political Trajectory and Economic Prospects: Regional Effects Participants depicted the current political mood in Egypt following the 2011 revolution and subsequent military takeover as one of fatigue and disillusionment with the democratic process. The speakers agreed regime stability is presently considered the most important priority. Although the Sisi regime is still in the process of consolidation, it is not in danger of being overthrown.

Power brokers are divided on the future role of Islamist players, with one camp calling for IISS NEWS

OCTOBER 2014 | 5

GLOBAL STRATEGIC REVIEW

CAMBODIA

MYANMAR

THAILAND

EUROPEAN UNION

NATO

red lines limiting the extent of political participation. Nevertheless, reforms have had a profound impact on the rebalancing of Myanmar’s foreign relations, with Western powers lifting most sanctions. China remains a hugely important neighbour, but both the extent of its influence under military rule and subsequent decline have been overstated.

In Cambodia, the 1990s post-conflict democratic transition stalled, enabling a system where the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) integrated itself deeply into the economy and bureaucracy. Despite a controversial 2013 election, Cambodia is currently stable due to a CPP deal with the opposition. The CPP is unlikely to give up power if defeated at the ballot box at the next election in 2018, given the country’s ‘winner takes all’ political culture.

The US 24th Air Force facilities at Port San Antonio (US DoD)

However, the country has a strong interest in a safe investment environment despite potenGovernmental Group of Experts had been able

level, the re-instatement of military rule may

tial political turmoil in 2017–18. Although the

to agree on the applicability of existing interna-

do little to quell the divisions and political mal-

CPP was installed by Vietnam, Phnom Penh has

tional law to the cyber domain. A key concern

aise afflicting the country. While the coup’s full

more recently sided with China against ASEAN

would be to determine what constitutes accept-

impact on relations with external powers is not

over the South China Sea, where Beijing and

able conduct in peacetime and how behaviour

yet clear, it is unlikely that it will lead to a sub-

Hanoi are adversaries.

could be monitored and policed – such as not

stantial deterioration in its relationship with

targeting another state’s critical national infra-

Washington – such as a cancellation of next

Special Session Five – The Consequences of

structure or Computer Emergency Response

year’s joint military Cobra Gold exercise – as this

Crisis: the Eurozone and European Strategy

Teams.

could open the door for China to build a stron-

Participants heard a familiar listing of the

ger relationship with Thailand.

challenges facing Europe, but were also able

International diplomacy still hankers after treaties but a pragmatic approach aimed at

Myanmar’s transition from a military dic-

to identify some positive indicators for the

building consensus on specifics and the volun-

tatorship to a more democratic state has been

future. On the financial front, the Eurozone

tary adoption of emerging best practice seems a

ongoing since 1993, a fact often forgotten when

crisis has left a divisive legacy and substantial

more realistic aspiration. No state can secure the

assessing the reform trajectory of the present

risks remain: debt levels are high and economic

cyber domain on its own and the cyber domain

government. Expectations that a true democ-

growth has been slow with high levels of youth

now affects all aspects of human life.

racy will emerge soon should be tempered by

unemployment. The crisis has both occupied

the existence of fairly intractable constitutional

leaders’ attention and restricted resources. As

Special Session Four – Southeast Asia’s Arc of Political Conflict and Economic Risk The speakers at this session addressed politi-

Soldiers on the streets of Bangkok, Thailand during the May 2014 coup

cal changes in three countries in mainland Southeast Asia: Cambodia, Myanmar and Thailand. As well as the nature of the changes – embedded, it was argued, in a regional political paradigm of constrained democracy – the discussion centred on their impact on relations with external powers, and implications for investment risk.

Thailand faced its 13th successful coup in May. Local opinions on the coup have not been as condemnatory as in the West: many Thais see the military’s reputation for efficient reform and restoration of order as part-justification for its intervention in public life. However, a second stage of political reform could be at risk if the economy fails to improve next year – economic stimulus is thus likely. On a more fundamental 6

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OCTOBER 2014

IISS NEWS

DEFENCE POLICY

RUSSIA

TERRORISM AND SECURITY

GLOBAL STRATEGIC REVIEW

tion has also increased the exchange of tactics and funding mechanisms between different Islamist groups.

Panellists agreed that hybrid conflict is more likely in countries with weak or divisive economic and state structures, such as Ukraine. It was pointed out that the use of proxy non-state armed groups by state actors is a long-standing issue in international affairs, but one that has acquired new relevance as a form of hybrid warfare that expands options to surprise adversaries and avoid detection.

Panellists emphasised development as a necessary condition for defeating hybrid armed groups. It was noted that political reforms, inclusive civilian partnerships and improved infrastructure have been used successfully in Euro symbol outside the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany (Chris Goldberg/Flickr)

some states affected by hybrid conflict.

Special Session Seven – Russian Military

a result, the EU was accused in the session of

Special Session Six – Hybrid Conflict, New

Modernisation

turning its so-called ‘comprehensive approach

Insecurities and the Developing World

In the context of concerns over Russia’s military

to crisis management’ into an excuse to give

This session explored the ways in which

actions in Ukraine, this session on Russian mili-

up on a greater strategic vision. In defence and

different types of non-state armed groups

tary modernisation generated a wide-ranging,

foreign policy, Europe has persistently failed to

have interacted and increasingly merged in

detailed and energetic discussion. The current

meet its own targets in terms of defence spend-

Africa, Latin America and Eastern Europe.

round of military-reform initiatives began after

ing, capabilities and coordination. A Europe

Globalisation has allowed activities such as

the short 2008 war with Georgia; this exposed

resting on these unsound foundations suddenly

drugs and human trafficking, the spread of mili-

Russia’s forces to combat against troops

had to face the Ukraine crisis and a Russia that

tant radicalisation and cyber crime to take on

equipped with modern equipment and arma-

could no longer be viewed as a strategic partner.

an increasingly transnational dimension which

ments. Improved finances after the mid-2000s

Previously, Europe had proceeded on the basis

threatens regional security and stability.

spurred the current reforms. Russia’s forces

that its neighbours, whether to the east or south,

Islamist groups display increasing hybrid-

are now very dissimilar to those before 2008.

wanted to be ‘like us’. Sanctions on Moscow

ity and have successfully involved a greater

Moving away from ambitions to deploy far out-

have added to Europe’s economic and financial

number of nationalities in their core operations.

of-area, Russia’s armed forces are instead being

woes.

This international dimension has been used to

shaped for regional and local contingencies as

It was felt that NATO’s recent Wales summit

good propaganda effect by groups such as ISIS.

the result of key developments in terms of per-

had made important decisions to improve

The use of the Internet as a means of radicalisa-

sonnel, training and equipment.

military readiness and flexibility, and to bolster both reassurance and deterrence, while

A video grab of ISIS militants in Iraq (Karl-Ludwig Poggemann/Flickr)

also seeking – less convincingly – to reverse the downward trajectory of defence spending.

Earlier, the EU’s December 2013 summit had been significant in reasserting a defence focus.

In a broader sense, participants were reminded that Europe had pulled together – albeit in crisis mode – to save the euro. Moreover, a new team of top officials in Brussels had begun a ‘reboot’ of EU foreign policy. However, the sense of the session was that much more action is needed to improve European cooperation in all areas of policy. There remains a contradiction between the combined clout that could be gained from strengthening Europe-wide institutions and the tendency of governments to cling on to what one participant called ‘the illusion of sovereignty’ – an arresting phrase guaranteed to provoke euro-sceptics across the continent.

IISS NEWS

OCTOBER 2014 | 7

GLOBAL STRATEGIC REVIEW

NON-PROLIFERATION AND DISARMAMENT

CHINA

WEST AFRICA

Special Session Eight – Nuclear Postures in the Asia–Pacific This session addressed the principle nuclearproliferation challenges in Asia. In particular, it examined China’s technological advance and doctrinal inflections; Pakistan’s nuclear programme, which is the fastest growing in the world; and ongoing concerns regarding North Korea’s nuclear trajectory. It was suggested that, paradoxically, US President Barack Obama’s promulgation of a world without nuclear weapons has been met with increased nuclear developments in Asia. The expansion and modernisation of nuclear-weapons programmes is occurring against a backdrop of rising regional tensions, doctrinal dissonance, weak command and control systems and a worrying absence of crisis-stability mechanisms. The speakers high-

President Putin visits anti-submarine ship Vice Admiral Kulakov

lighted several situations in which strategic miscalculation could lead to a troubling escalation.

between

Russia’s strategic rocket forces. With personnel

800,000–850,000 personnel in its armed forces,

being a key objective of the reform process, per-

The first of these potential flashpoints to be

comprising a mixture of conscripts and con-

sonal military equipment has seen substantial

explored was the relationship between China

tract personnel. However, the country is still

change, and there have been notable develop-

and the US. China is undertaking to modernise

grappling with the effects of the demographic

ments in personal load-carrying equipment,

its nuclear arsenal, seeking to develop a lean

slump of the 1990s; this reduced the avail-

body armour, and personal communications,

and effective deterrent force. However, there is

able pool of manpower. The aspiration is to

among others. However, the benefits of these

a lack of communication between the US and

recruit more contract-service personnel, though

reforms for the broader armed forces are not as

China on doctrinal issues. The US discredits

recruitment targets have so far remained simply

readily apparent as they are for Russia’s rapid-

China’s no-first-use policy and criticises what

that. Personnel are now better paid and there is

reaction forces.

it perceives to be excessive secrecy. Questions

Russia

is

thought

to

have

renewed pride in military service; however, the

With rising wages, young people are being

were also asked of US commitment to its secu-

management of conscript personnel remains an

attracted to the defence-industry sector; the gap

rity guarantees in the region. China’s growing

issue.

is in the middle, reflective of problems inherited

conventional assertiveness is combined with a

The armed forces are receiving more capable

from the 1990s. The focus is on increasing the

bellicose North Korea, where capabilities are

and modern equipment, but problems remain

ability to serially produce advanced equipment

also difficult to assess. Since its third nuclear

in the defence industry’s capacity to deliver

and also introduce modern processes, such as

test in 2013, North Korea has been presumed

the numbers planned. Air and naval forces

modular construction in shipbuilding, to better

capable of weaponising its stockpile of nuclear

have seen new capabilities introduced, as have

match building techniques common elsewhere.

material, although any device may have low reliability. Capabilities in India and Pakistan are

Anti-nuclear-power protests in Kouenji, Japan (Matthias Lambrecht/Flickr)

more transparent, but there is an urgent need for risk reduction: nuclear rivalry is driven by declaratory policies and neither side has the other’s measure.

A key theme throughout the session was the clear gaps in bilateral and multilateral dialogues on these issues. Habits of communication and interchange need to be enhanced in Asia, possibly in the form of an Asian nuclear dialogue.

Definitions of deterrence and how the concept is perceived by different parties in the region also need to be addressed.

Special Session Nine – Complex Instability in the Broader Sahel: Geopolitical and Geoeconomic Implications Although Mali returned to civilian rule following the coup in 2012 and a civil war in the north,

8

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OCTOBER 2014

IISS NEWS

SYRIA

PACIFIC ALLIANCE

GLOBAL STRATEGIC REVIEW

globalisation and are among the most open and fastest-growing economies in the region.

It was pointed out that the integration being pursued by the Pacific Alliance is broader than just trade, also encompassing people, services and the increasing competitiveness of the bloc’s small and medium companies – for example through visa wavering and integration into global value chains. To develop competitiveness, the countries of the bloc are also investing in infrastructure projects such as ports, airports and railways.

The participants agreed that the Pacific Alliance is working towards becoming a hub of interaction between Latin America and Asia.

This is attracting growing interest from neighFamilies on the border region between Mauritania and Senegal can face severe food insecurity (EC/ECHO/Anouk Delafortrie)

bours – not only Costa Rica and Panama, who are on their way to becoming members of the new bloc, but also among private-sector com-

the country has yet to see stability. The conflict

expansion of Boko Haram, instability in Libya,

panies in Brazil. The largest economy in the

there has required a regional and international

elections in Burkina Faso and Niger, and the

Asia–Pacific, China, sees the Pacific Alliance

response which, albeit partly successful, has

risk of Ebola spreading northward.

as a business opportunity. Latin America as a whole has already seen substantial Chinese

revealed a number of shortcomings, not least the dichotomy between rhetoric and practice,

Special Session Ten – Inter-Regional Geo-

investments in the agriculture and infrastruc-

the political limitations of cross-departmental

Economics: The Pacific Alliance and the

ture sectors. Chinese firms have committed to

AU–ECOWAS cooperation, and the need for a

Asia–Pacific

investing in transportation infrastructure in a

much-awaited African rapid-response force.

This session analysed the growing links between

bid to reduce shipping costs and diversify trade with the regional bloc.

It was made clear in the session that,

the four countries of the Pacific Alliance trade

although Mali is the epicentre of instability,

bloc – Chile, Peru, Colombia and Mexico – and

the Sahel faces a growing, region-wide prob-

the Asia–Pacific. It was argued that previous

Special Session Eleven – Syria: Conflict and

lem linked to the failure of public institutions,

integration projects in Latin America have failed

Spill-Over

underdevelopment, unresolved ethnic-minority

because of a prioritisation of proximity over

The rise of ISIS is a symptom of a multi-front

grievances, and the cultural and social divides

affinity of political and economic strategies.

war in Syria and a polarised regional landscape.

relating to North and sub-Saharan Africa. The

Crises in the vicinity of the Andean countries

The brutality of the Assad regime, the failure

Sahel is not insulated from events unfolding

were cited as examples of why the principle of

of the mainstream Syrian opposition and the

further afield, such as in Somalia, Egypt and

proximity is not enough to form strong inte-

rapidly shrinking space for grassroots activ-

even Syria. In particular, the crisis in Libya has

gration movements. Pacific Alliance countries,

ism have created a power vacuum increasingly

acted as an accelerant of insecurity across the

on the other hand, have common ideas about

filled by radical forces. Where support for the

broader region – not least because many militants have relocated to its southern region. This trend reflects the broadening of the jihadi threat,

Container port, Hong Kong (LeeYiuTung/iStock)

a concern that is increasingly widespread across North and West African countries. Pre-existing tensions among key regional players, such as between Morocco and Algeria, are undermining prospects for stabilisation.

The EU – the region’s largest donor – faces the challenge of coordinating its own Sahel strategy at a time when insecurity in Ukraine, Iraq and Syria has overshadowed the Sahel crisis. There is a risk that regional leaders will not implement promised reforms in the face of diminishing Western interest.

Going forward, the following were deemed to be key factors in determining the stability of the region: the on-going talks in Algeria, continuing attacks against peacekeepers, the IISS NEWS

OCTOBER 2014 | 9

GLOBAL STRATEGIC REVIEW

INDIA

GEOPOLITICS

and travelled to Washington at the end of September. This ‘foreign-policy blitz’ signals Modi’s efforts to portray India as open for business, especially since trade now accounts for half of its GDP. India will continue to assert its strategic autonomy by leveraging its position in the Indo–Pacific, particularly in the context of renewed Western focus on Asia. The US has lowered its short-term expectations and now looks for convergence rather than a meeting of minds on regional strategy. Conversely, Western diplomats can only support – not promise – the inward investment Modi seeks for India.

Keynote Session on Strategic Risk: The Perspective from Business The Saturday-evening keynote featured three

A Free Syrian flag at a refugee camp in Syria

global

business

leaders:

Marilyn

Hirsch,

Global Head of Strategic Planning at AIG; John Assad regime remains, it is largely attributed

rising middle class. However, it remains to be

Knight, Statoil Executive Vice President for

to the lack of viable alternatives. Similarly,

seen whether bureaucracies and union states

Global Strategy and Business Development;

increased support for the Jabat al-Nusra, ISIS

can work alongside, and not against, the admin-

and Andrés Rozental, Founding President of

and others is largely a result of their superior

istration to bring about this change.

the Mexican Council on Foreign Relations.

Tactical, rather than strategic, shifts will

Each shared his or her perspective on crafting

likely characterise the Modi government’s out-

a robust corporate foreign policy to deal with

The role played by Iran and the Gulf states

reach to South Asian neighbours. India remains

the exigencies and demands posed by changing

in supporting their respective local part-

committed to normalising ties with Pakistan.

patterns in international relations.

ners leaves little prospect for a clean victory.

However, the government has signalled that it

Marilyn Hirsch emphasised AIG’s need for

Nonetheless, panellists agreed that the pri-

will only revive a dormant dialogue on its own

real-time and forward-looking evaluation of

mary drivers of the conflict remain local. For

terms, and at a time and pace of its own choos-

political and economic risk, a lesson underlined

now, ISIS is primarily concerned with local

ing. In practice, Pakistan’s internal turmoil and

during the 2008 global financial crisis, which

consolidation rather than attacks against the

rising ceasefire violations in Kashmir, coupled

necessitated a multi-billion-dollar US govern-

far enemy, but Western strikes may compel

with security uncertainties in Afghanistan, will

ment takeover of the company. Since then, the

the group to refocus. Western involvement

continue to shape India’s most important bilat-

global insurer has returned to profitability but

has often validated the jihadi narrative and

eral relationship.

remains, according to Hirsch, a complex inter-

funding and organisation, rather than ideological commitment.

motivated new recruits to join the fight. Policy options, including containment in Syria and

Further afield, Modi has travelled to Japan and

Australia,

hosted

China’s

president,

national business exposed to both country-level and transnational risks through its operations

creating an off-ramp for the end of a mission in Iraq, were deliberated.

Narendra Modi

Special Session Twelve – Narendra Modi’s India This session took stock of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s first 100 days in power and assessed prospects for change and continuity to 2019. For the first time in three decades, India is ruled by a single, absolute-majority government, under the right-of-centre Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). While the full scope of Modi’s reforms will only take shape in 2015, his first step has been to deflate unreasonable expectations. He has staked his success on incremental results, rather than untenable promises and quick fixes.

The government’s liberalisation programme aims to restore annual GDP growth to over 7% by promoting investment and manufacturing, as well as consumption and the welfare of the 10

|

OCTOBER 2014

IISS NEWS

ENERGY SECURITY

GEO-ECONOMICS

GLOBAL STRATEGIC REVIEW

(l–r) Marilyn Hirsch, Global Head of Strategic Planning, AIG; Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS; Andrés Rozental, Founding President, Mexican Council on Foreign Relations; and John Knight, Executive Vice President, Global Strategy and Business Development, Statoil

in over 90 countries. The company has had to

Andrés Rozental spoke of the top-ten risks of

tions. The first of these was the limited pipeline

develop a corporate strategy for crises and

conducting business globally, and approached

network between Russia and Northeast Asia:

political transitions as varied and geographi-

these thematically. At the global level these

currently, bilateral pipelines only exist between

cally dispersed as those taking place in Egypt,

included, in his view, an emerging power

Russia and China, with territorial disputes and

Thailand, Russia and Ukraine, to name a few.

vacuum marked by the increasing absence of an

the instability of North Korea impeding pipe-

Enhanced due diligence, if managed correctly,

efficient ‘global crisis manager’ in the shape of

line construction with Japan and South Korea,

can also serve to identify geopolitical oppor-

the United States and set in parallel with the rise

respectively. The second was Russia’s limited

tunity. In this regard, Hirsch reflected on the

of China as a great power. At the local level, sub-

domestic technical and production capacity

potential opportunity to insure an aspiring,

stantial risks emanate from the rising number of

in ramping up supply – production levels are

well-educated and growing market of potential

young people in the world. This demographic

declining in Russia, and questions have been

customers in Iran, should the country continue

trend presents both a market opportunity and a

raised over Gazprom’s ability to build process-

to normalise its relations with Western powers

potential source of further global political vola-

ing plants and construct pipelines in a timely

and re-engage with international markets.

tility. Social unrest in authoritarian countries,

manner. Finally, as a late entrant to the Asian

John Knight acknowledged a growing con-

problems related to cyber attacks and espionage,

energy market, Russia has to compete with alter-

sensus among Statoil executives that heightened

religious extremism and the consequences of a

native energy sources in the region, among them

geopolitical and investment risk, volatile energy

slowdown in growth in key emerging markets

the oil and gas pipelines from Central Asia and

costs and prices, and the emergence of new global

could all exacerbate these overarching trends.

Myanmar, cheap and abundant domestic coal in China, and rising liquefied natural gas (LNG)

players with ever-larger energy and geopolitical footprints are profoundly reshaping the indus-

Third Plenary – Global Energy: A Strategic

supplies from the Middle East, Australia and, in

try. The rise of unconventional hydrocarbons

Assessment

future, the United States and Canada.

and the uncertainty generated by the prospect

The panellists explored opportunities and hur-

Tadashi Maeda pointed out that, although

of US energy self-dependence have furthered

dles faced by the two emerging strategic energy

the United States could probably commence

that belief. Statoil has set about restructuring

relationships facing Northeast Asia: that with

unconventional hydrocarbon exports to Japan

its strategy department with an emphasis on

Russia and that with North America. Dr Xavier

around the same time as the new Russo-Chinese

optionality and resilience to better cope with the

Chen analysed the potential role of Russian

pipeline is completed (around 2018), an out-

‘age of the unthinkable’. The energy major now

energy in the region, focusing on the ques-

dated 1938 legal framework for US gas exports,

has teams in place to assess threats to its business

tion of why the energy trading links between

along with the additional costs of delivering

operations and market capitalisation in terms of

Russia and Northeast Asia have traditionally

shale gas using the US’s existing pipeline distri-

country and transnational risk, and deploys a

been weak, despite geographic proximity and

bution network – which would force exports via

third unit to develop a geopolitical strategy tai-

demand–supply complementarity between the

the Gulf of Mexico and the Panama Canal rather

lored to these assessments. Significantly, Statoil

two regions. This complementarity has recently

than via newly constructed pipelines to the West

has also undertaken to externalise its risk anal-

taken on greater significance for Russia, which

Coast – could pose regulatory and cost hurdles.

ysis to challenge and cross-check its views of

faces the prospect of economic sanctions over its

Potential LNG exports from Canada were being

strategic change in the world. This priority was

actions in Ukraine.

hindered by First Nations and tax issues, while

reflected in Statoil’s decision to become a corporate member of the IISS. IISS NEWS

Dr Chen suggested three factors limiting the

Alaskan LNG supply to Asia was unlikely

rapid acceleration in intra-regional energy rela-

to come on-stream before 2023. Nonetheless, OCTOBER 2014 | 11

GLOBAL STRATEGIC REVIEW

POLITICAL RISK/RISK ANALYSIS

CHINA

JAPAN

(l–r) Tadashi Maeda, Senior Managing Director, Japan Bank for International Cooperation; Dr Pierre Noël, Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah Senior Fellow for Economic and Energy Security, IISS–Asia; Xavier Chen, President, Beijing Energy Club; and Dr William Pizer, Professor of Public Policy, Duke University

Maeda noted that the gradual restarting of

proposed three ‘Yamamoto principles’ for the

trust. In such a fluid environment, observers of

Japan’s nuclear power plants following the

fostering of regional collaboration: emphasis-

Asia–Pacific security cannot rely on the axiom

Fukushima nuclear accident would act against

ing the rule of law, the promotion of bilateral

that complex economic interdependence pre-

Russian supply prospects, as would the

relationships with Japan’s neighbours and the

cludes conflict. History has proven that the

Japanese domestic energy-distribution monop-

strengthening of the regional community.

obverse is possible.

oly, which has impeded pipeline construction

Li stressed that the post-Cold War global

in the past. Dr William Pizer added that renew-

architecture was under pressure, given the

Fifth Plenary – The Purposes and Extent of

able energy was set to play an increasing role

decline of the United States and the ‘rise of

Western Strategic and Military Capacity

in the region, with half the capacity additions in

the rest’. But a new Cold War is not emerging,

The concluding plenary of the GSR brought

China over the past year coming from non-fossil

he said. China is engaged on all fronts with

together Ine Eriksen Søreide, Norwegian

sources, along with the potential imposition of

its neighbours, even Japan – a country with

Minister for Defence; Michael Rich, President

a cap on energy production using coal in 2015.

which it has had difficult relations. China, Li

and Chief Executive Officer of RAND; and

said, wants to be a pre-eminent power in Asia,

Professor Sir Hew Strachan, Chichele Professor

Fourth Plenary – A New Cold War in Asia?

a goal which would at times raise tensions in

of the History of War at the University of Oxford.

The question posed in the fourth plenary threw

the region. While Western entreaties that China

Søreide set out the consequences for NATO

up several imponderables in Asia–Pacific secu-

become a ‘responsible stakeholder’ are ‘correct

of the changing European security environ-

rity: the conundrum posed by China’s rise, the

in principle’, China is being asked to participate

ment. The relative predictability of the threat

sustainability of the US rebalance to the region,

in the building of a regional order that does

of high-intensity conflict was contrasted with

and Asian countries’ ability to adjust to major

not take Beijing’s interests into account. In the

a more diverse range of contemporary threats,

shifts in the regional security environment. The

end, the most important bilateral relationship is

including cyber attacks and long-range preci-

three panellists – Eric Li, Chairman of Chengwei

the one between China and the US; both great

sion firepower. Meanwhile, the confluence of

Capital and Member of the Council; Sarah

powers are involved in a ‘long and complex

falling defence budgets and rising costs, she pre-

Raine, IISS Consulting Senior Fellow for Geo-

negotiation’ in the search for a new power con-

dicted, will push more Western states towards

Economics and Security; and Ichita Yamamoto,

figuration.

multinational cooperation to fulfil defence capa-

former Japanese minister in charge of Ocean

Raine’s take on the situation was less san-

bilities. She noted that, while NATO has once

Policy and Territorial Issues – were generally

guine. She observed that China’s strategy is

again begun to focus on territorial defence, it is

agreed that a contemporary parallel in Asia

effectively to seek a de facto hegemony in the

unclear whether societies in member states have

to Cold War-era bipolar competition does not

region – a process that is contested and might

fully grasped the significance of this.

exist. Nonetheless, each warned of systemic

result in the establishment of deterrence poli-

Rich, in turn, focused on identifying what

shifts that might raise tensions and even spark

cies. Chinese attempts at changing facts on the

he believed were the highest-priority areas

outright conflict.

ground in its maritime disputes with various

of interest of American foreign and security

According to Yamamoto, Asia stands at a

Asian countries could have serious escalatory

policy. Chief among these were the preservation

‘fork in the road’: the region must choose either

ramifications. To provide the stability needed

of a liberal international order, the develop-

to cooperate to build a new regional order or to

for a regional order, Japan needs to deal with

ment of a constructive relationship with China

allow some states to undermine that order. He

the country’s historical issues to build strategic

and the containment and eradication of the

12

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OCTOBER 2014

IISS NEWS

DEFENCE POLICY

UNITED STATES

EUROPE

NATO

GLOBAL STRATEGIC REVIEW

(l–r) Ichita Yamamoto, former Minister in charge of Ocean Policy and Territorial Issues, Japan; Sarah Raine, Consulting Senior Fellow for Geo-Economics and Security, IISS; Eric Li, Chairman, Chengwei Capital; Member of the Council, IISS; and Dr Tim Huxley, Executive Director, IISS–Asia

most violent anti-Western extremists in the

ment: that economic interdependence does

military advisers and proxy local forces are

Middle East. Secondary goals fit within these

not guarantee peace; that local conflicts can

not distinct from ‘boots on the ground’, nor a

broader themes, such as tackling the root

aggregate into larger ones; and that rhetoric

reliable policy instrument; and to stop substi-

causes of sectarian disputes in the Middle East,

can often get in the way of crisis manage-

tuting labels for proper analysis.

supporting the liberal-democratic orientation

ment. With these in mind, he suggested that

The IISS is grateful to the Ministries of

of former Soviet states in Eastern Europe, pre-

the West needs to build a vocabulary for war

Foreign Affairs of Sweden and Norway for

venting the spread of nuclear weapons into

that contains, rather than magnifies, conflict.

their generous support of the GSR, Statoil for

unstable regions, and the development and

He also identified particular areas in need

support of the Opening Dinner, and the follow-

adoption of clean energy.

of improvement: urging decision-makers to

ing Corporate Patrons: Statoil, BAE Systems,

Professor Strachan began by articulat-

see strategy as more than simply reacting

Lockheed

ing a number of lessons of the First World

to threats; to avoid undermining deterrence

Orascom Construction Industries and Reliance

War that are relevant to the current environ-

through over-promising; to recognise that

Industries Limited.

Martin,

Northrop

Grumman,

(l–r) Ine Eriksen Søreide, Minister of Defence, Norway; Michael Rich, President and Chief Executive Officer, RAND; Member of the Council, IISS; Professor Sir Hew Strachan, Chichele Professor of the History of War, All Souls College, University of Oxford; Member of the Council, IISS; and Professor François Heisbourg, Chairman of the Council, IISS

IISS NEWS

OCTOBER 2014 | 13

IISS–ASIA

FULLERTON LECTURES

CANADA

AUSTRALIA

A Pacific Bridge: Next Steps for Canada and Asia

A Conversation with Julia Gillard

Julia Gillard, former Prime Minister of Australia

The 22 August IISS Fullerton Lecture by Julia Gillard, former prime minister of Australia from 2010 to 2013, took the form of a conversation with Dr Tim Huxley, Executive Director of IISS–Asia, in the ballroom of John Baird, Canada’s Foreign Minister

Singapore’s Fullerton Hotel in front of 200 invited guests, followed by a question-and-answer session with the audience. The discussion focused

In his IISS Fullerton Lecture in Singapore on 4 August, Canada’s Foreign

particularly on Australia’s relations with Asia, including the significance

Minister, John Baird, who was in the midst of a major tour of the region,

of the ‘Australia in the Asian Century’ White Paper, which Gillard’s gov-

spoke about his country’s foreign policy in a global environment that he

ernment issued in late 2012. Gillard highlighted Australia’s success in

described as ‘systematically unstable’, and its increasing emphasis on

developing close political and economic relations with China, while simul-

developing relations with Asia. In his address, Baird emphasised Canada’s

taneously maintaining an important security connection with the United

important ‘Asian demographics’ (five million Canadian citizens having

States. The former prime minister argued that while a major security crisis

Asian origins) and the country’s important economic stake in Asia. The

in East Asia that might undermine Australian efforts to balance relations

minister highlighted three ‘strategic areas’ of Canada–Asia relations: gov-

with China and the United States remained unlikely, it was nevertheless

ernance and democratic development; energy security (reflecting Canada’s

important to find ways to manage regional strategic tensions in, for exam-

status as an ‘energy superpower’ with the third-largest proven oil reserves

ple, the South China Sea. In response to a question about the challenges of

in the world); and security cooperation. He also spoke of Canada’s impor-

being Australia’s first female prime minister, Gillard pointed to the unrea-

tant bilateral relationship with Singapore, which he described as a ‘key

sonable media comments routinely directed at women in public life. Other

ally on regional security’. Baird’s lecture, and his subsequent answers to

questions from the audience focused on the rationale for the deployment

questions from the audience in the ballroom of the Fullerton Hotel, placed

of US Marines to Darwin, Australia’s relations with India, and immigration

great emphasis on the importance of values as well as interests in Canada’s

policy. Concluding the Fullerton Lecture, Dr Huxley asked Gillard about

foreign policy, and specifically the relationship between democratic devel-

her activities since leaving politics: in reply she emphasised her leading

opment and enhanced security and stability. Read the transcript and watch

role in the Global Partnership for Education, and her forthcoming book on

a video of the event.

her time as prime minister, My Story. Watch a video of the event.

PUBLICATIONS

Survival: Global Politics and Strategy In the October–November 2014 issue of Survival, Toby Dodge discusses the origins and consequences of state weakness in Iraq; Christopher J. Fettweis looks at the shortfalls in US strategy that have persisted since the Cold War; and Samuel Charap analyses the Ukraine crisis in light of deadlocked diplomacy between Russia and the West. Also in the issue: Shiloh Fetzek and Jeffrey Mazo on climate change, resources and conflict; Jonathan Holslag on the security implications of China’s growing ambitions; and Mark Gilbert on corruption and reform in Italy.

14

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OCTOBER 2014

Palliser Essay Prize 2014 For details of the 2014 prize, consisting of £2,500 and publication of the winning essay in Survival, see the Survival website for further details.

IISS NEWS

RUSSIA

ASIA-PACIFIC

AFRICA

MIDDLE EAST

EUROPE

EVENTS

Strategic Survey 2014: The Annual Review of World Affairs The press launch of Strategic Survey 2014: The Annual Review of World Affairs took place on 18 September at Arundel House. The book covers a year that saw revolution in Ukraine, Russia’s

annexation

of

Crimea,

deepening turmoil in Syria and its neighbourhood, and rising tensions over sovereignty disputes in the Asia–

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang is greeted by Dr John Chipman, IISS Director-General and Chief Executive

Pacific region. The return of big power geopolitics was identified as a strong theme of the year’s events.

Dr

John

Chipman,

Director-

General and Chief Executive, said

IISS experts talk to the press after the launch at Arundel House

in his press statement that Strategic Survey was aimed just as much at the international business community as

As well as the usual sections on each region and the opening

at the Institute’s traditional audience among officials and analysts. In keep-

‘Perspectives’ and closing ‘Prospectives’ chapters, the book includes essays

ing with this, the latest book is more explicit about the strategic risks that

on privacy in the post-Snowden cyber domain and on hybrid forms of inse-

result from the year’s developments. For the first time, each regional chap-

curity in the developing world. The ‘Strategic Geography’ section includes

ter includes a graphic that lists ‘drivers of strategic change’ that have been

maps of the world’s liquefied natural gas network and of the undersea

identified from analysis of recent events. An essay in the book explains this

cables that enable Internet communications. There is also a chronology of

approach.

the year’s key events.

Chipman said: ‘We believe that Strategic Survey helps to define the intel-

Journalists’ questions were answered by a panel made up of Alex

lectual framework for what might be styled geopolitical due diligence: the

Nicoll, Editor of Strategic Survey, Nigel Inkster, Tim Huxley, Ben Barry,

effort to understand and prepare for how political change in any given

Virginia Comolli, Emile Hokayem, Dana Allin, Sam Charap and Toby

country or region affects stability and the prospects for successful interna-

Dodge.

tional engagement either by governments or the private sector.’

Watch a video of the press launch and read the press statement.

The Khodorkovsky Saga, Power Politics and Legal Reform in Russia Jeffrey Kahn, professor of law at Southern Methodist University, discussed the ‘Khodorkovsky saga’ at Arundel House on 3 September. Professor Kahn was one of nine experts invited by the Kremlin Human Rights Council to review the second criminal case against Mikhail Khodorkovsky, former owner and CEO of Yukos oil, for fraud and tax evasion. The review encouraged some hope that Dmitry Medvedev’s presidency would result in justice becoming less politicised. Kahn outlined his findings, which were highly critical of the prosecution and supported the council’s recommendation that the verdict should be annulled. He also described the reprisals against his fellow experts once Vladimir Putin had returned to the presidency.

Kahn argued that the saga illuminates the state of Russia’s legal

Moscow City Court (Paha_l/Dreamstime.com)

system after 20 years of only partial reform. While the courts often work well enough, there is a tension between the authorities’ desire

Kremlin sometimes finds value in acting and being seen to act in viola-

for courts that are both effective and easy to control. In cases such as

tion of its own laws. The discussion was chaired by Director of Editorial

Khodorkovsky’s, the authorities violate fundamental legal principles

Nicholas Redman. Listen to the full presentation on the IISS website

but afford themselves a veneer of legality. Kahn concluded that the

here.

IISS NEWS

OCTOBER 2014 | 15

NON-PROLIFERATION AND DISARMAMENT

IRAN

CHEMICAL & BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS

EXPERTS

EU Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Conference The

IISS

organised

the

third

EU

Non-Proliferation

and

Disarmament Conference, which took place in Brussels on 4–5 September 2014. The conference, held in association with the EU Non-Proliferation Consortium, demonstrated to a global audience the strong role that the EU plays within the whole spectrum of issues on the non-proliferation agenda, including conventional arms, export controls, chemical and biological weapons, cyber security and nuclear issues in a range of regions and contexts. The opening keynote address was delivered by Director-General of the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons Ahmet Üzümcü and a dinner presentation and lively discussion were provided by UN High Representative for Disarmament Angela Kane and former BBC World News presenter Nik Gowing. Over 250 participants came from a broad range of locations and subject backgrounds; a total of 57 states were represented. Full coverage of the conference including the speaker agenda, transcripts of the sessions and blog posts from IISS experts can be found on the IISS website.

A sculpture by Swedish artist Carl Fredrik Reuterswaerd called Non Violence, outside UN headquarters in New York

The Chemical Weapons Convention in the Middle East

The Day after the Deadline: Assessing the Nuclear Negotiations with Iran

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon reports on the investigation into Syria’s chemical weapons use, December 2013 (UN)

Catherine Ashton and Mohammad Zarif at the P5+1 Talks on Iran’s Nuclear Program (US Mission Geneva/Eric Bridiers)

On 4 August 2014, in collaboration with the Organisation for the Prohibition

On 22 July 2014, Mark Fitzpatrick, Director of the Non-Proliferation

of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), the IISS hosted a workshop on ‘Bringing

and Disarmament programme at IISS, and Dina Esfandiary, a Research

the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) into effect throughout the

Associate in the same department, assessed the status of nuclear negotia-

Middle East’. The workshop aimed to stimulate discussion in the Middle

tions with Iran two days after the P5+1 and Iran failed to meet the 20 July

East about the benefits of and prospects for regional universalisation of the

deadline for a comprehensive nuclear deal. While significant progress had

CWC. Additionally, it sought to aid understanding of and provide help

been made on some aspects of Iran’s nuclear programme, deep differences

for overcoming the existing obstacles to adherence by the two remaining

over what is considered a permissible size for the programme and how

regional holdouts: Israel and Egypt. It was agreed that events in Syria rein-

long restrictions on it should remain in place proved insurmountable in

forced the global consensus against chemical weapons and spiked interest

the end. Speakers assessed the growing domestic pressure felt by both the

in the universalisation of the treaty. Participants also discussed possible

Iranian and US negotiating teams, and the likely sticking points of the next

accession timelines for remaining holdouts and confidence-building meas-

round of talks. The meeting was chaired by Dana Allin, Senior Fellow for

ures that both states could take. A report of the workshop can be found on

US Foreign Policy and Transatlantic Affairs; an audio recording can be

the IISS website.

found here.

16

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OCTOBER 2014

IISS NEWS

CHINA

CYBER SECURITY

China’s Cyber Power

TRANSNATIONAL THREATS AND POLITICAL RISK

The Sovereignty Conundrum in Cyberspace

The campus of Baidu, one of China’s largest search engines, Beijing (hwanghsuhui)

On 23 July, Director for Transnational Threats and Political Risk Nigel

Data communication cables (iStock)

Inkster discussed China’s cyber capability and security concerns at Arundel House. He noted that China’s capacity for cyber espionage is

On 18 September, Aadya Shukla, Research Scientist at MIT’s Computer

highly developed, and focuses particularly on the US defence sector. Fears

Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, discussed the complexi-

of the Internet being used as a ‘vector for political subversion’ by the West

ties of sustaining national sovereignty in the cyber domain. Chaired by

have also led to the creation of an extremely comprehensive system of

Director for Transnational Threats and Geopolitical Risk Nigel Inkster,

cyber censorship and surveillance, the Golden Shield Project.

the event drew on several established models of sovereignty to examine

However, China’s information structures remain extremely vulnerable

how its definition has evolved with the addition of a cyber dimension.

to cyber attacks due to an overdependence on Western cyber systems and

Shukla advocated a more pluralistic understanding of the term, one that

inadequate and badly implemented cyber legislation. Thus while the flow

extends beyond traditional ideas such as territorial sovereignty to include

of information into the country is well monitored, the theft of information

the concept of data sovereignty. She defined this as the capacity of national

from China by external parties remains a significant risk. To address this

governments to protect those ‘information assets’ which, if released into

problem, the Chinese government has established a Leading Small Group

cyberspace, could undermine a country’s position on the world stage.

on Internet Security and Informatisation.

These included, for example, high-level financial information or data

Inkster concluded by noting that China has taken an active role in

on developments in defence technology. Elaborating on this concept,

discussions of the application of international law to the cyber domain.

Shukla identified the four key layers of cyber over which governments

The vastness and complexity of this field, he added, meant that significant

must maintain control to protect their sovereignty in this domain: physi-

negotiation would be required before a suitable implementation method

cal (infrastructure), logical (network connections), informational (content),

could be agreed upon.

and social (network users). Establishing truly globalised standards to

The event was chaired by James Hackett, Senior Fellow for Defence and

govern the creation of and access to each layer, she concluded, would be

Military Analysis and Editor of The Military Balance. Audio of the discus-

essential to building a practical concept of national sovereignty in cyber-

sion is available here.

space. Listen to the full presentation here.

INDIA

EXPERTS

SOUTH ASIA

Security Challenges and Strategic Imperatives for India M.K. Narayanan, former governor of West Bengal and national security advisor to then-prime minister Dr Manmohan Singh, warned on 23 September that a new version of jihad was attracting a ’small but steady stream’ of Indian youth, numbering between 100 and 150, to fight with ISIS in Syria and Iraq. As almost all of these recruits were professionals, Narayanan noted that it was clearly not social exclusion at home, but rather the particular appeal of ISIS that was the real concern. Yet Narayanan argued that al-Qaeda’s recent decision to expand into India was ‘not a major threat’.

Speaking at Arundel House, Narayanan stated that India did not face any existential threat from any external source, despite its border dispute with China and intense rivalry with Pakistan.

He suggested that neither of these disputes were likely to lead to open conflict, noting in particular the recent substantial reduction in separatist sentiment in Kashmir. He concluded that India’s response to security challenges needed a coordinated approach between the centre and the states.

However, he added, the relationship between these two levels of government was currently ‘frayed at the edges’ and would require some mending before significant progress could be made.

IISS NEWS

ISIS militants (Kamna Arora)

OCTOBER 2014 | 17

SECURITY AND DEVELOPMENT

MEXICO

CHINA

NIGERIA

Forgotten, But Not Gone: the Continuing Threat of Boko Haram

EXPERTS

China and the UK in Central Asia

British soldiers from the Brigade Reconnaissance Force in Afghanistan (Wes Calder/ Crown Copyright) Civilian militias patrol in Maiduguri, in the Nigerian state of Borno (Diego Ibarra/Flickr)

On 9 September the Security and Development Programme, together The kidnapping of over 200 Nigerian schoolgirls in April sparked inter-

with the Saferworld organisation, hosted a half-day roundtable session

national outrage and prompted several countries, including Britain and

to discuss knowledge-exchange and possible cooperation between China

the United States, to offer support for the search for the missing girls

and the UK in preventing conflict in Central Asian countries. During the

held by Boko Haram. Visiting IISS–US on 15 July, Research Fellow for

morning, participants traded lessons learnt from Afghanistan but also

Security and Development Virginia Comolli discussed the implications

from the broader Central Asian region. It was clear by the end of the

of Boko Haram’s insurgency for Nigeria, its repercussions for other West

meeting that greater cooperation was indeed welcome, but a number of

African countries and the role of non-African partners (the US in par-

unanswered questions remained, particularly on division of labour and

ticular) in dealing with the security challenges the group presented. In

the nature of collaboration. Chinese delegates stressed that cooperation

addition, Comolli highlighted how Nigeria, and the African continent

on border security would be more politically feasible than military-to-

more broadly, has acquired greater strategic importance for Washington

military cooperation. Conversely, some British participants argued

in recent years – in part owing to its economic potential and the growing

in favour of the latter. For instance, one military expert suggested that

local consumer market – and how American and Western interests in the

China could share with Britain its experience in peacekeeping operations.

region have become vulnerable to attacks and therefore justified growing

The meeting was part of a broader Saferworld-led project on ‘China–UK

Western apprehension towards Nigeria’s insurgency. A video of the event

Partnership on Conflict Prevention’ that involves Chinese and British

can be found on the IISS website.

conflict experts.

Criminal Threats to Mexico’s Energy Revolution With the energy sector reform recently approved by Mexico’s congress, foreign companies interested in entering this lucrative market will have to face the challenge of organised crime. This threat was analysed at a discussion meeting on 30 September with Gustavo Mohar, former director of Mexico’s national security intelligence agency CISEN, and Juan Carlos Boué, Senior Research Fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.

The event was chaired by Antônio Sampaio, IISS Research Analyst for Security and Development.

Wind turbine in Baja California Sur, Mexico (iStock)

Mohar emphasised the complexity of Mexico’s criminal underworld, where big cartels still operate but smaller groups have emerged in recent

Boué emphasised that Pemex has faced obstacles in increasing the

years. These new groups are contributing to an increase in kidnappings

amount of oil it extracts. Whereas expectations are high regarding the

and extortion. The Mexican state has strived to strengthen law enforcement

energy reform, fiscal income from new oil and gas fields will depend

and state presence in rural areas, but still faces challenges to its authority in

on the decisions taken by the Mexican government regarding the level

some regions, such as Tamaulipas state, which holds huge potential shale

of taxation for hydrocarbon projects. A full video of the event can be

gas reserves.

found here.

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OCTOBER 2014

IISS NEWS

EXPERTS

UKRAINE

ASIA-PACIFIC

CHINA

IISS–US

Energy Security and the Ukraine Crisis On September 24, Pierre Noël, IISS Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah Senior Fellow for Economic and Energy Security, spoke at the IISS–US on energy security and the Ukraine crisis. He explained that ‘there is almost no credible scenario in which Ukraine can avoid a very severe gas shortage this winter’, which represents a considerable threat to the Ukrainian public and economy. Furthermore, the energy dilemma entangling Europe, Ukraine and Russia has the possibility to transcend the coming season and affect the core of relations between the West and Russia. The Ukraine crisis has the

Russian Gazprom workers monitor production at a gas field on the Yamal Peninsula, northern Russia (Gazprom)

potential to draw Europe into mingling its energy interests with geopolitics, jeopardising more than just Ukraine’s uncertain future. The European

United States and Europe. This will come in the form of financial assistance

decision to either allow or block the further development of the South

to make Ukraine’s economy sustainable with market-priced energy. This

Stream pipeline will determine the direction the confrontation between the

might however be ‘much more expensive than people usually acknowl-

West and Russia will take.

edge’.

If Ukraine continues down the path of alignment with the EU, the burden to make Ukraine resilient to Russian influence will fall on the

This discussion was moderated by Samuel Charap, IISS Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia, and can be viewed on the IISS YouTube channel.

Adelphi Launch: Beyond Air-Sea Battle On July 17, Aaron Friedberg, Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University, discussed his IISS Adelphi book, Beyond AirSea Battle: The Debate over US Military Strategy in Asia. He was joined by Elbridge Colby, Robert M. Gates Fellow at the Center for a New American Security, who provided commentary. The book focuses on the implications of China’s military build-up, the belated response by the US to regional changes and its current lack of a developed strategy, and differing options

US and Japanese naval vessels during exercise Keen Sword 2013 in the East China Sea (Jennifer A. Villalovos/US Navy)

for the future of US military strategy in Asia. China’s development of ‘antiaccess/area-denial’ (A2/AD) weapons has increased the risks to American

straints. Elbridge Colby added to Friedberg’s framework by illuminating

military forces and its allies in the Asia–Pacific. The key conclusions of

that the ‘Air-Sea Battle’ doctrine does not solely focus on direct approaches

the book centre around the current debate on the appropriate American

to maintaining military interests in the region but also leaves the option for

strategy to address China’s new military developments. Critical issues

indirect approaches open.

regarding the debate include the implications of not developing a distinct and strong strategy and the influence of financial, social and political con-

This discussion was moderated by Bryce Campell, Managing Director, IISS–US, and can be viewed on the IISS website.

Appointments The IISS welcomes the following; Kaila Coulston

MEMBERSHIP

Exclusive Services for Members

Senior Conference Coordinator

The Library has recently purchased two new excit-

configurable one-stop search facility that searches

Lilli Harkonen

ing products, which offer great benefits to members.

and provides full-text access to items from both the

The first is a new database, the International

ISCTRC database and open-source material on the

Security and Counter-Terrorism Reference Centre

theme of international relations, plus searches IISS

(ISCTRC), which offers full-text access to over 3,000

Library catalogue holdings.

Conference Coordinator Stephanie Love Conference Manager Kat Slowe Media Relations & Communications Officer

IISS NEWS

items relating to international security or terrorism,

Members can access this platform via links in the

such as journal articles, e-books, reports, etc. The

members’ area or the Library area of the IISS web-

second is the EBSCO Discovery Platform, a highly

site.

OCTOBER 2014 | 19

IISS–MIDDLE EAST

GEO-ECONOMICS

IISS Geo-economics and Strategy Conference

EXPERTS

Kamal bin Ahmed, Minister of Transportation and Acting Chief Executive of the Bahrain EDB, delivered the keynote address on the evening of 7 September. During his opening remarks, Ahmed stressed the importance of developing a post-oil economy: ‘The challenge for us should be to ensure that our current prosperity is not something that we look back on in thirty years as a short-lived golden age. After all, oil will not last forever – we need to make sure that we develop economies that are able to thrive in the post-oil era. If we are to maintain and increase our current levels of prosperity for the next generation, and if we are to ensure that the benefits of this growth are shared widely across society, we need to continue to invest in economic diversification.’ Stressing the need to develop the human resource potential, Kito de Boer, Director, Middle East, McKinsey & Company, announced that he is more worried about education and skill-building in the region than running out of oil reserves.

View of Manama’s financial district, Kingdom of Bahrain (iStock)

Ibrahim Dabdoub, Deputy Chairman, International Bank of Qatar, called for a comprehensive economic strategy, which he termed a ‘pan-Arab

From 7–8 September, the IISS Geo-economics and Strategy Programme con-

Marshall development plan’, in order to combat the lack of economic oppor-

vened a conference entitled ‘Business Opportunity and Political Risk in the

tunity fuelling unrest in the region, and to be financed by wealthy countries in

Gulf and Middle East’ at the Sofitel Bahrain. The two-day meeting, in col-

the GCC. Delegates further deliberated the need to utilise the region’s demo-

laboration with the Bahrain Economic Development Board (EDB) brought

graphic dividend (that is its exploding youth population) and for stronger

together business leaders, policymakers and experts to discuss economic

private-sector collaboration in tandem with government policymaking.

prospects in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), and the wider Middle East.

Other speakers included: Dr Sanjaya Baru, Director, Geo-economics

Over one hundred delegates representing some two dozen countries in

and Strategy, IISS; Dr Toby Dodge, Consulting Senior Fellow for the

the Middle East, Europe, North America and Asia came to Bahrain for this

Middle East, IISS; Emile Hokayem, Senior Fellow for Regional Security,

initiative. Delegates participated in sessions focused on the geopolitical

IISS; Danny E. Sebright, President, US–UAE Business Council; Adel Ali,

survey of the Gulf; Gulf models of development and policy; economic policy

Group Chief Executive Officer, Air Arabia; Sheik Mohamed Bin Khalifa

and regional prospects; and energy and economic sustainability in the region.

Al Khalifa, Chief Executive, The Oil and Gas Holding Company, Bahrain;

In light of recent political developments and energy security concerns in the

Atul Punj, Chairman, Punj Lloyd; and Jeffrey Johnson, President, Middle

Middle East, the conference proved to be a timely gathering that emphasised

East, Boeing Company. Coverage and resources from the conference can

the human capital potential in the GCC.

be found on the IISS website.

DEFENCE AND MILITARY ANALYSIS

EXPERTS

INTERVENTION

Delivering the Integrated Approach in Fragile and Conflict-Affected States Mark White, Deputy Head of the UK’s Stabilisation Unit (SU) – an integrated civil–military operational unit designed to operate in high-risk environments – spoke at Arundel House on 10 September. The discussion, chaired by James Hackett, Senior Fellow for Defence and Military Analysis and Editor of The Military Balance, examined UK strategies towards fragile and conflict-affected states.

A key element in the SU’s work is the promotion of an ‘integrated

Stabilisation Unit staff gather information on the humanitarian situation at Salloum on the Libya–Egypt border (Daniel Murphy/Stabilisation Unit)

approach’ to tackling instability through shared understanding of conflict contexts and joint analysis, planning and delivery of objectives by

that even in ‘peace time’, integration becomes standard practice.

all relevant UK government departments. The previous ‘comprehensive

White concluded that integration – requiring adaptation, compromise,

approach’, White explained, had been collective at the strategic level but

and extensive resources – was not easy. Further, stabilisation sometimes

still led to responses focused on individual departmental activities.

necessitated choosing the ‘least bad’ option. However, the political appetite

White suggested that increased funding from a new £1bn Conflict, Stability and Security Fund might create more incentives for departments to proactively collaborate. He also emphasised the importance of ensuring

20

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OCTOBER 2014

for integration is clear, and the UK government hopes that both local and international actors could learn from its efforts in this area.

Listen to the discussion at iiss.org.

IISS NEWS

OBITUARY

A tribute to Patricia Olive Evans 23 June 1927–13 August 2014

given a place. In a voluntary institution, dependent on members’ support, this selection process had to be done very carefully.

Patricia ran the office with skill, excellent judgement, good humour and a keen eye on saving precious money. She was particularly good at select-

Patricia Olive Evans, who served at the IISS for 27 years from the early

ing office and other supporting staff, short-listing the applicants before

1960s to 1990, died on 13 August 2014. She was a great tower of strength

bringing them forward for final interviews and selection.

for the IISS and will be sorely missed by the entire IISS community. Our

She had a great sense of personal commitment to the Institute, working

President–Emeritus, Professor Sir Michael Howard, and four directors of

long hours when needed, especially through a lengthy period when she

the IISS; Christoph Bertram, Robert O’Neill, Francois Heisbourg and Dr

had severe mobility problems due to pain in her hip. She was impressive

John Chipman remember her:

and reassuring in manner. She could be firm with those who did not meet her standards, but she also had a good sense of humour and a warm nature.

‘When the Institute was founded – and for almost a decade after that – it

She was greatly liked and respected by staff and members of the Institute.

was run effectively by four people. There was Alastair Buchan as Director;

In the Tavistock Street building her office was immediately below mine and

there was Arthur Majendie as Secretary and Treasurer; there was Kenneth

from time to time, when I needed some relief from the pressures of dealing

Hunt as Director of Studies: and there was Patricia Evans. Patricia was sec-

with everything coming in, it was wonderful to slip downstairs to Patricia’s

retary to all three, dealt with the correspondence, looked after the members

office, sit in the tub chair in front of her desk and just have a chat. Thank you

and organised the conferences. She knew everyone and did everything:

Patricia – you made a deal of difference to my time at the IISS!’ Bob O’Neill, IISS Director, 1982–87

without her the whole affair would have come to a grinding halt. If historians find maddening gaps in the early records of the IISS, it is because records did not have to be kept: Patricia knew and remembered everything,

‘Affection, respect and fondness, are just some of the words that spring

so there was no need to write it down. She was like a mother to our small

to mind on learning the sad news of her death. Generations of research

family, sorting out our problems, calm and comforting in crises and, when

associates, visiting fellows, not to mention successive directors and staff

we grew up, basking happily in our success. Eventually we had to learn

members of the IISS, know what they owe to her, and how the Institute as

to do without her, but like all mothers, she was irreplaceable. Subsequent

a whole was a better and happier place thanks to her. It is a fortunate insti-

generations can have no idea how much they owe to her.’

tution indeed which benefitted from the loyalty, the devotion, dare I say

Professor Sir Michael Howard, President-Emeritus

the love, of Patricia during its years of early growth and blossoming maturity. The IISS, like any organisation or group of individuals, reflects the

‘Institutions, like humans, blossom if people who work with them love them.

strengths and sometimes the frailties of the human beings which compose

Patricia truly loved the IISS throughout the three decades in which she served

it: but the qualities the Institute has and the culture which distinguishes it

it. As directors and researchers moved on, she watched over the Institute’s

from others are very much Patricia’s legacy.

inner workings and outward appearance and ensured their high standard.

As a Frenchman, I may have been more sensitive than those of British

I first met her in 1967, arriving from Germany as a young RA. In the

extraction to one of Patricia’s most distinctive traits, and that was her ‘scep-

fifteen years we worked together, not least in my time as Director from

tered isle’ quality. For foreigners, who are by definition a majority in a truly

1974–1982, I learned to value her judgement and to profit from it. Her then

international institute, Patricia provided reassurance and grounding, a sense

official title of Office Manager barely conveyed her role: she was an indis-

of place, indeed a sense of home – a happy home. I believe that this form

pensable member of the Institute’s directing staff. It was Patricia who first

of belonging and internal stability within the Institute made it the solid

had the idea of honouring the Institute’s first director, Alastair Buchan,

platform from which it has been able to transform, and sometimes construc-

with the annual lecture bearing his name.

tively destabilise, the terms of the global strategic debate over the decades.

She was sharp, shrewd, principled and formidable. On occasions, she

Thank you Patricia, and may you rest in peace.’

François Heisbourg, Chairman of the IISS

could be immensely charming, her eyes warm and tinkling. On others she had an acerbic wit which she delivered with a little chuckle. The one that stays in my mind is Patricia’s favourite saying when she disliked someone:

‘“You should ask Mrs Evans.” When I first came to the IISS as a young

“you would wish his parents never met.” The IISS and all those who knew

researcher from Oxford this is what I was told by everyone at Tavistock

her and worked with her can be grateful that hers did.’

Street. Mrs Evans would advise on how to deal with any issue of life at

Christoph Bertram, IISS Director, 1974–1982

the Institute. She had the full confidence of every member of staff, and understood the heart and soul of the organisation like no other. She knew

‘Patricia was one of the most effective members of the Institute’s staff for

how to gently rein in the overenthusiastic ideas of a new recruit, while

nearly thirty years. She ran the office, kept a friendly and helpful eye on

encouraging those with good ideas to carry them out. She engaged with

the research associates, administered meetings and conferences, kept the

the council, the membership and the staff as part of an extended family to

minutes of council and executive committee meetings, and was a wonder-

whom she felt a duty of care. I certainly always felt a duty, whenever I saw

ful source of advice to the director on what was happening throughout

her, to know what she thought about something or someone. Before the

the Institute. One of her special strengths was knowledge of our members

phrase ‘emotional intelligence’ entered the business lexicon, she embodied

and what they had to contribute to the Institute’s work. Her guidance on

its core meaning. Her combination of tact and firmness carried a natural

which applicants we should accept for a place at our annual conference

authority to which everyone happily deferred. I often wish I could still ask

was extremely helpful. In the 1980s we usually had to disappoint 150–200

Mrs Evans. When I can imagine her answer, it always helps. Some people

applicants from among our members each year, so the operation was not

remain a guide when they are gone. Bless her.’

without costs in personal feelings on the part of those who could not be IISS NEWS

Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive of IISS

For details of how to contact the IISS >

OCTOBER 2014 | 21