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Financial impact of Middle East tensions Hey Taylor There’s always talk about financial impact with these conflicts in the Middle East. Taylor Any insight as Kovar to what might happen with things being so shaky in Iran? Freddie Hey Freddie - A lot of financial webs cross through Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the rest of the region. Oil is the primary talking point, but the military presence of soldiers from multiple countries has a price tag attached as well. As far as an economic impact from the acts of aggression that happened at the beginning of the year, we’ve already seen it. After the retaliatory strikes from Iran in response to the killing of Qassem Suleimani, the markets got spooked and took a noticeable dive. In the days since however, we’ve returned to all-time highs because it seems like tensions leveled off a little. Unlike the drone strike in Saudi Arabia last year, there’s a less direct impact on the oil industry in the wake of these airstrikes. But, and this is the really important thing, we can’t just look at the short-term data. While we might not actively be at war, Iran is still a major adversary. Anti-American sentiment in the region, while not shared by everyone, is a steady undercurrent in both Iran and Iraq. Geography alone makes Iran an incredibly important player in Middle Eastern politics, and that’s before we even consider the possibility of the country developing nuclear weapons. The scenario many fear is that the U.S. will get involved in another conflict and spend a lot of money doing so, and that action would
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quickly result in a spike in oil prices that would be a drag on our overall economy. The Iranian government is on pretty thin ice already, meaning any sort of escalation could go either way as far as uniting Iranians or amplifying the country’s internal chaos. Either scenario will be pretty messy. Unfortunately, there’s no easy fix and no one can predict how things will play out. We can expect to see the stock market twist and turn as new developments come out of the Middle East and our government employs different tactics, military or otherwise. Global markets being what they are, we also are somewhat at the mercy of what other countries do in terms of sanctioning Iran. As with other conflicts, there’s no reason to let this scare you away from investing. The Dow gets jumpy for lots of reasons, and while tensions with Iran give us plenty of causes for concern, it’s nothing that should have you thinking about cashing out. Taylor Kovar, CEO of Kovar Capital. Read more about Taylor at GoFarWithKovar.com Disclaimer: Information presented is for educational purposes only and is not an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. To submit a question to be answered in this column, please send it via email to Question@GoFarWithKovar.co m, or via USPS to Taylor Kovar, 415 S 1st St, Suite 300, Lufkin, TX 75901.
Living with children Q: I’m new to reading you, but it appears that you don’t have much in common with other psychologists. John You don’t agree Rosemond much with about their approach to children and parenting. Correct? A: Correct. I’ve been licensed to practice psychology since 1979. Since then, I’ve concluded that psychology is an ideology, an unscientific philosophy that’s way off the proverbial mark when it comes to understanding human beings. I fail, for example, to be persuaded of the efficacy of any form of psychological therapy. One can find studies that say cognitive behavior modification, for example, works quite well across the board and one can find studies that say otherwise. Some studies say it works no better than a placebo therapy. In other words, it may be that a certain form of psychological therapy works if the therapist succeeds at persuading the client it’s going to work. That’s one of several reasons why I do not believe children (including teens) should be the objects of psychological therapy. Again, there’s no consistent body of evidence leading to the conclusion that therapy works reliably with people of any age, but conversations with many parents over many years convinces me that psychological therapy with a child or teen can and often does make matters worse. I have heard that tale of woe in many forms from many, many parents over the past forty years. I concede that some of the parents in question may have misrepresented something, but the number of parents who report that the longer therapy with their child went on, the worse the problem with their child became is too large to be dismissed on that basis. In many cases, I get the impression that the therapist encouraged the child’s belief that life with his parents is a soap opera in which they are the villains and he is their misunderstood victim. Then there’s the matter of
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therapists who rip off an insurance provider by playing board games (see, for example, last week’s column) and doing arts and crafts with said child or teen. What problem is being addressed? What research verifies the treatment efficacy of board games? None and none. The further problem is that children cannot be counted on to represent adult behavior accurately. They have not been adults; therefore, they have no appreciation for the nuances of adult behavior. That’s why, when parents ask me if I’m going to talk to their child about a problem, I point out that their child is not in a position to report objectively. As such, talking with him would be an exercise in futility and taking their money. I have made exceptions, mind you, but nearly every exception has proven the rule. When parents ask my help concerning a child, I talk with them. They run the home (or need to learn how to do so effectively). I don’t lead conversations about people’s feelings or childhood memories. As is the case with this column, I’m a problem-solver, pure and simple. Furthermore, I don’t think one needs to go to psychology school to give good advice on childrearing issues. One needs experience with children and common sense. The problem – I experienced it firsthand – is that common sense comes primarily from the heart, not the head, and graduate school in psychology fills only the head. Furthermore, it fills the head with what I believe to be misinformation about human beings and the human condition. Which is why the first question I frequently ask parents who are seeking my advice is “Have either of you asked your parents for advice concerning this problem and, if so, what did they say?” Family psychologist John Rosemond: johnrosemond.com, parentguru.com. John Rosemond has worked with families, children, and parents since 1971 in the field of family psychology. In 1971, John earned his masters in psychology from Western Illinois University and was elected to the Phi Kappa Phi National Honor Society.
