Scenarios Process Scenarios Process About the Scenarios The project presents a range of plausible development scenarios for the North Slope and adjacent seas for the time horizon of 2040. The scenarios considered in this analysis represent a “wide but plausible” range of High, Medium and Low resource
AboutObjective the Scenarios Project
Project Objective
The NSSI Scenarios Project was developed and realized under the guidance project presents a range TheThe NSSI Scenarios Project was of developed and realized under the guidance of the focal question: What is the future of energy development, resource plausible development forof energy development, resource of the focal question: What scenarios is the future extraction and associated support activities on the North Slope and adjacent extraction and associated support activities on the North Slope and adjacent the North Slope and adjacent seas seas, through 2040? The identification of the plausible resource development seas, through 2040? The identification of the plausible resource development for the time horizon of 2040. The scenarios that address this question will help contribute to the refinement of scenarios that address this question will help contribute to the refinement of specific research and monitoring priorities on the North Slope and adjacent scenarios considered in this analysis specific research and monitoring priorities on the North Slope and adjacent seas. represent a “wide but plausible” range seas. of High, Medium and Low resource
Scenarios Identification
Scenarios Identification
The scenario process applied to this particular project was composed development intensity. The identification The scenario process applied to this particular project was composed development intensity. The identification of five main steps (Figure 6). The first step involved the identification of of the spatially-explicit scenarios of five main steps (Figure 6). The firstwas step involved the identification of of the spatially-explicit scenarios was the driving forces that will influence the set of consistent variables and the conducted driving forces that will influence the set of consistent variables and through a stakeholderassumptions used to construct the scenarios. The second step focused conducted through a stakeholderassumptions used to construct the scenarios. The second step focused driven process that included local on the identification of critical uncertainties that could become challenging driven process that included local on the identification of critical uncertainties that could become challenging variables within the scenarios. The third step involved the identification knowledge holders, topical experts and variables within the scenarios. The third step involved the identification knowledge holders, topical experts and of the components for each of the three scenarios (High, Medium and stakeholders, sets of the componentsand for was eachguided of the by three scenarios (High, Medium and stakeholders, and was guided by sets Low). The fourth step revisited each scenario and identified the triggers, of The consistent assumptions Low). fourth step revisitedorganized each scenario and identified the triggers, of consistent assumptions organized critical implications and consequences for each. The final step used the critical implications consequences for each. The final step used the within four mainand themes, represented About the Scenarios Project Objective prior products to further explore and identify the research and monitoring About the Scenarios Project Objective within four main themes, represented prior products to further explore and identify the research and monitoring as resource development, NSSI Scenarios Project wasneeded developed and realized under the guidance efforts to address the implications under each scenario. Overall, the TheThe NSSI Scenarios Project wasbiophysical, andThe realized under the guidance project presents aefforts range ofdeveloped The project presents a range of as biophysical, resource development, needed to address the implications under each scenario. Overall, the of development, the drivers. focal question: Whatprocess is the future of energy development, resource was participant driven and required a level of transparency that built of the focal question: Whatscenarios ismarket the future ofsociopolitical energy resource and plausible forparticipant was driven and required a level of transparency that built plausible development scenarios for sociopolitical market and drivers.developmentprocess extraction and associated support activities on the and North Slope and trust among participants ensured that adjacent the final product integrates the extraction and associated support activities on the North Slope and adjacent trust among participants and ensured that the final product integrates the the North Slope and adjacent seas the North Slope and adjacent seas seas, through 2040? The combined identification of the plausible resource development knowledge of workshop participants and expert consultants. seas, through 2040? The identification of the plausible resource development combined knowledge of workshop participants and expert consultants. for the time horizon of 2040. The will help contribute scenarios address this for the time horizon of 2040. The scenarios that address this question to that the refinement ofquestion will help contribute to the refinement of research monitoring priorities on the North Slope and adjacent specific research and monitoring priorities on thespecific North Slope andand adjacent scenarios considered in this analysis scenarios considered in this analysis seas. seas. represent a “wide but plausible” range represent a “wide but plausible” range
Scenarios Process Scenarios Process
Proceso de Simulación de Escenarios
1. Factores o Fuerzas de Cambio Step 1
Step 2
Step 1
4. Modelación/Simulación deStepEscenarios Step 3 Step 4 5
2 and Low resource Step 3 Step 4 of High, Step Medium Identification Step 5 Scenarios ConsisteIdentification en la identificaciónScenarios de aquellos Considerando las tendencias variables The scenario process development intensity. The identification The scenario process applied to this particular project was composed applied to this particular project was composed development intensity. The identification factores que pueden influenciar de manera en los factores de cambio, se modelan of five main steps (Figure 6). The first step involved the identification of of five main steps (Figure scenarios 6). The first step involved the identification of of the spatially-explicit was A ? C of the spatially-explicit scenarios was ? que ? reflejen distintas X the forces that will? influence the set of consistent variables and másforces potente la trayectoria dedriving desarrollo escenarios X the driving that will influence the set of consistent variables and ? ? conducted through a stakeholderconducted through a stakeholder? assumptions used to construct the scenarios. The second step focused assumptions usedterritorio. to?construct the scenarios. second step focused de process un Entre The otros factores, tendencias y decisiones. Se pueden ? driven that included local ? X driven process that included local on thebecome identification of critical that could become challenging ? on the identification of critical uncertainties that could ? uncertainties X challenging destacan: crecimiento poblacional, simular escenarios tendenciales o ? variables the scenarios. The third step involved the identification knowledge topical experts and variables withinholders, the scenarios. The third step involved the within identification knowledge holders, topical experts and ? Bthree D (High,que cambios demográficos, cambios de uso reflejen condiciones extremas en of the components for each of the scenarios Medium and ? of the components for each of the three scenarios (High, Medium and X stakeholders, and was guided by sets ? stakeholders, and was guided by sets ? X fourth Low). The step revisited each ? scenario and identified the triggers, suelo, riesgo cambio climático, algunas variables. Cada escenario debe Low). de The fourth step revisited each y scenario and identified the triggers, of consistent assumptions organized of consistent assumptions organized About the Scenarios Project Objective critical implications and consequences for each. The final step used the Future Driving Forces Key Trends Plausible Critical criticalrecursos implications and consequences normativas for each. The finalurbanas step used the disponibles, integrar supuestos que sean posibles, Driving Forces Plausible Critical The NSSI Scenarios Project was developed and realized under the Future guidance within four Trends main themes, represented within four main themes, Therepresented project presents a range of Key R&M efforts and Critical Implications products to further explore andScenarios identify the research and monitoring prior products to further explore and identify the prior research and monitoring R&M efforts and Critical Scenarios Implications of the focal question: What is theamenazas future of energy development, resource (zonificación, límite urbano, etc.), internamente consistentes y lógicos. Uncertainties as biophysical, resource development, needed toOverall, addressthe the implications under each scenario. Overall, the as biophysical, resource development, plausible development scenarios for to address the implications underefforts efforts needed each scenario. Uncertainties extraction and associated support activities on the North Slope and adjacent naturales, etc. process was participant process was driven and required a level of transparency that driven built and required a level of transparency that built market andparticipant sociopolitical drivers. market and sociopolitical drivers. the North Slope and adjacent seas of High, Medium and Low resource
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Scenarios Process
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seas, through 2040? The identification of the plausible resource development Workshop #1 #2 trust among participants and ensured that the final productWorkshop integrates the trust among participants and ensured that the final product integrates the Workshop #1 #2 to the refinement Workshop for the time horizon of 2040. The scenarios that address this question Workshop will help contribute of #3 combined knowledge of workshop participants and expert consultants. combined knowledge of workshop participants and expert consultants. Scenarios Scenarios specific research and monitoring priorities on the North Slope and adjacent scenarios considered in this analysis Scenarios Scenarios Research and Identification Implications seas. Implications Monitoring represent a “wide but plausible” Identification range
2. Tendencias e Incertidumbres
Nov 2014
Workshop #3 Research and Monitoring
Jun 2015 Feb Escenarios 2016 5. Impactos e Implicancias de
Nov 2014 Scenarios Identification Jun 2015 Feb 2016 of High, Medium and Low resource Step Step 24 StepStep 3 5 Step 4 Step 5 Step 2 Step13 Step Figure 6. Scenario process to project the project The scenario process applied to this applied particular was composed development identification Figure 6.intensity. ScenarioThe process applied to the project Considerando las steps variables anteriores, se the identification of Cada escenario se evalúa en torno a los of five main (Figure 6). The first step involved of the spatially-explicit scenarios was 8driving | Prioritizing Science Needs Through Participatory Scenarios for Energy and Resource Development and Adjacent Seas definen lasthe tendencias emergentes athe?futuro indicadores de impacto seleccionados forces that will influence set of consistent variables and on the North Slope ? 8 | Prioritizing Science Needs Through Participatory Scenarios for Energy and Resource Development on the North Slope and Adjacent Seas R&M conducted through a stakeholderR&M assumptions used to constructLo the scenarios. The second step focused en rangos de variabilidad. anterior y se comparan con metas y objetivos. ? ? ? that couldR&Mbecome challenging driven process that?included local R&M on the identification of critical uncertainties conforma la arquitectura de los escenarios Es posible establecer recomendaciones ? variables within the scenarios. The third knowledge holders, topical experts and ? step involved the identification R&M R&M a modelar yof evaluar. y priorizaciones de acciones para cada the components for each of the three scenarios (High, Medium and stakeholders, and was guided by sets ? ? R&M de una forma proactiva y Low). The fourth step revisited each scenario and identified the triggers, uno de ellos R&M of consistent assumptions organized ? critical implications and consequences?for each. The final step used the anticipándose a condiciones futuras. within four main themes, represented further explore and identify the research and monitoring Future Driving Forcesprior products KeytoCritical Trends Plausible Critical Future Driving Forces Key Trends Plausible as biophysical, resource development, efforts needed to address the implications under each scenario. Overall, the R&M efforts and Critical Scenarios Implications R&M efforts and Critical Scenarios Implications process was participant driven and required a level of transparency that built marketUncertainties and sociopolitical drivers. Uncertainties trust among participants and ensured that the final product integrates the combinedWorkshop knowledge of #1workshop participants and expert consultants. Workshop #2 Workshop #3
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Scenarios Scenarios Identification Implications
Scenarios Identification
3. Step Metas y Objetivos Participativos 1 Step 2 Step 3 Nov 2014 Nov 2014
Jun 2015
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Step 4 2016 Feb
Scenarios Implications
6. Estrategias y Recomendaciones Step 5 Jun 2015 Feb 2016
La participación de actores y tomadores de decisiones es calve en esta parte para ? X Development on?the North Slope and Adjacent Seas 8 | and Prioritizing Science Needs Through Participatory Scenarios for Energy and Resource 8 | Prioritizing Science Needs Through Participatory Scenarios for Energy Resource Development on the North Slope and Seas generar yAdjacent traer conocimiento ? ? consenso local en función de las implicancias ? X de las ? decisiones en el entorno territorial, recursos ? disponibles, indicadores de X impacto y ? ? metas para el monitoreo. Figure 6. Scenario process applied to the projectFigure 6. Scenario process applied to the project
Driving Forces
Key Trends and Critical Uncertainties
Plausible Scenarios
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Critical Implications
Future R&M efforts
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Figure 6. Scenario process applied to the project 8 | Prioritizing Science Needs Through Participatory Scenarios for Energy and Resource Development on the North Slope and Adjacent Seas
Research and Monitoring
En base a los impactos de los escenarios modelados, se pueden tomar decisiones informadas para establecer políticas públicas, planes y medidas específicas. La cuantificación anticipada de impactos puede ser utilizado para comparar los resultados de metas a nivel territorial.
Manejando la Incertidumbre frente a los Desafíos Globales | 11