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¿Cómo abordar la incertidumbre ante los desafíos globales?

Planificación por Escenarios Desarrollado por GeoAdaptive


Índice ¿Cuándo se necesita planificación por escenarios?

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¿Cómo los escenarios pueden ayudar a una mejor toma de decisiones?

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Aproximación por escenarios en diversas áreas de práctica

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Lugares donde hemos aplicado planificación por escenarios

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Experiencia seleccionada 1.

Escenarios Participativos para el Desarrollo de Recursos Naturales y Energéticos en Alaska

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2.

Análisis de Riesgo y Vulnerabilidad Muti-Amenaza para una Ciudad Caribeña

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3.

Escenarios Climáticos y Análisis de Vulnerabilidad de Especies Amenazadas: Cooperativa para la Conservación de Paisajes de la Península de Florida

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4.

Iniciativa para Paisajes Acuáticos y Terrestres Resilientes: Simulación de Cambios en Hábitat y Vulnerabilidad Costera en el Suroeste de Florida

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5.

KeysMAP2: Implementación de un Marco de Planificación por Escenarios Ecosistemas Marinos y Costeros

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6.

Conservación de Paisajes y Escenarios de Cambio Climático para el Estado de Florida: Un Sistema de Apoyo a la Toma de Decisión para la Conservación

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7.

Escenarios de Crecimiento Urbano: Análisis Prospectivo para un Área Metropolitana

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8.

Iniciativa de Osa y Golfito: Exploración de Escenarios para un Futuro Sustentable

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9.

Cabo del Este: Evaluación de los Impactos Socioambientales Indirectos por el Desarrollo Turístico de Gran Escala

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GeoAdaptive Consultores Ltda www.geoadaptive.com Santa Beatriz 170 Of. 1102 7500515 Providencia Santiago, Chile ©2018 GeoAdaptive LLC. All rights reserved. This document cannot be used without the permission of the authors and it is for limited distribution.


GeoAdaptive es una consultora global que provee servicios de inteligencia a sus clientes, integrando investigación, analítica avanzada, estrategia, planificación y diseño. Nuestro equipo está impulsado por la creatividad y el rigor científico con el objetivo de generar impactos positivos en territorios, organizaciones y empresas. Integramos en un solo flujo de trabajo, la investigación con el uso de tecnologías geoespaciales y de información geográfica, métodos avanzados de modelación y análisis de datos y desarrollo de soluciones en forma de planes, proyectos, plataformas tecnológicas, estrategias y políticas. Esto facilita la incorporación de inteligencia en la gestión de territorios desde el entendimiento del problema hasta la implementación de planes y políticas. En GeoAdaptive, casi el 90% de nuestro trabajo actual es con clientes recurrentes, lo que demuestra la increíble confianza y sentido colaborativo de nuestro trabajo. El equipo de GeoAdaptive tiene experiencia en más de 23 países, 18 ciudades intermedias y cientos de municipios colectivamente en regiones de América Latina y el Caribe, así como experiencia en África, Europa, Asia y EE. UU

Clientes Representativos


CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO

CRECIMIENTO DEMOGRÁFICO DISRUPCIÓN TECNOLÓGICA


INESTABILIDAD POLÍTICA ESCASEZ DE RECURSOS

MERCADOS FLUCTUANTES


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¿CUÁNDO SE NECESITA UNA PLANIFICACIÓN POR ESCENARIOS? La planificación por escenarios es un instrumento estratégico que permite la exploración de condiciones futuras, ayudando a autoridades y organizaciones a tomar decisiones informadas ante la incertidumbre. Los escenarios permiten la consideración simultánea de futuros posibles y la exploración de las consecuencias en cada uno de ellos. Son una herramienta crítica para la planificación de mediano y largo plazo, particularmente cuando se enfrentan incertidumbres que limitan la utilidad de las técnicas convencionales de pronóstico estadístico. Los escenarios se diseñan como un proceso que apoya a los actores involucrados en el desarrollo de un territorio. A través de estos, los actores tienen la posibilidad de contemplar los rangos de incertidumbre al examinar los efectos potenciales de diferentes condiciones territoriales futuras. Así, los tomadores de decisiones pueden elegir qué futuro quieren propiciar y cómo pueden responder a estos, considerando los impactos de largo plazo de decisiones que son tomadas en presente. Los escenarios pueden ser utilizados para varios objetivos: • • • • •

Entender las incertidumbres acerca del futuro económico, demográfico y político. Entender las trayectorias de crecimiento de un territorio o región e identificar estrategias de desarrollo alternativas. Entender los posibles cambios y efectos en territorio de ciertas decisiones. Proveer herramientas estratégicas para la toma de decisiones en el corto, mediano y largo plazo. Permitir que los actores involucrados compartan sus visiones respecto del futuro de un territorio, estableciendo acciones consensuadas para un desarrollo sustentable.

Los escenarios representan futuros alternativos, reflejando los impactos sociales, económicos, ambientales, culturales y políticos. Así, el reconocimiento de resultados o efectos alternativos permite una mejor toma de decisión acerca del futuro de un territorio o región.

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Manejo de la Incertidumbre La incertidumbre refleja la existencia de altos grados de variabilidad o conocimiento parcial sobre un determinado problema. Las causas de la incertidumbre provienen de información y datos inadecuados, así como de la incapacidad de determinar con precisión la trayectoria de alguna variable territorial. Los escenarios ayudan a entender los grados de variabilidad investigando los impactos posibles. Esto permite establecer un portafolio de planificación adaptable que responde a múltiples posibilidades.

Capacidad de Responder a Cambios Inesperados Uno de los componentes importantes de la planificación por escenarios es la capacidad de pronóstico. El pronóstico es un método científico para evaluar impactos futuros. Sin embargo, los pronósticos raramente permiten un 100% de precisión. De esta forma, los escenarios incorporan los pronósticos y también sus grados de incertidumbre, lo que permite el diseño de herramientas para enfrentar un abanico de contingencias.

Generación de Consensos y Aprendizaje Colectivo Es importante que el proceso de diseño de los escenarios incorpore a la mayor cantidad de actores involucrados en la gestión y modificación del territorio. De esta forma es posible construir consenso de los impactos negativos y positivos de las decisiones de cada uno. Así mismo, es posible acordar las limitaciones de cada actor, así como las acciones que lleven a un resultado que beneficio a los diferentes sectores.

Evaluación de Políticas e Impactos La planificación por escenarios otorga insumos de conocimiento avanzados en cuanto a la evaluación de los impactos sociales, económicos, ambientales, etc., de decisiones en el territorio. Es un instrumento de apoyo a la toma de decisión que, en vez de dar un pronóstico único de las trayectorias de desarrollo de distintas variables, explora múltiples posibilidades dando las herramientas para el diseño de políticas y planes flexibles que propicien un determinado resultado y respondan a imprevistos.

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¿CÓMO LOS ESCENARIOS PUEDEN AYUDAR A UNA MEJOR TOMA DE DECISIONES? Los escenarios se desarrollan por medio de un proceso exploratorio e interactivo que ayuda a los tomadores de decisiones a visualizar y entender los cambios posibles que se pueden gatillar en un territorio si ciertas condiciones o decisiones se vuelven realidad. La evaluación por escenarios permite explorar los cambios potenciales en territorios y cómo estos interactuarán con los sistemas urbanos y naturales y las metas de desarrollo para un determinado lugar. Estos describen futuros posibles desde las condiciones existentes, políticas y supuestos que regulan los sistemas territoriales, definiendo así, trayectorias de cambio posible en una región. Los escenarios son instrumentos estratégicos anticipatorios con un alto poder predictivo, los cuales permiten adelantarse a cambios negativos en territorios y transparentar, a tiempo, los efectos y costos de decisiones por parte de los actores involucrados. Al transparentar los efectos de las decisiones, los actores pueden tomar conciencia del problema y establecer metas y acciones consensuadas. El desarrollo de escenarios se divide en seis etapas:

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1.

Identificación y diagnóstico de las fuerzas o factores de cambio

2.

Identificación de tendencias e incertidumbres

3.

Establecimiento participativo de metas, objetivos e indicadores de impacto

4.

Modelación de escenarios futuros

5.

Impactos e implicancias de los escenarios

6.

Desarrollo de estrategias, instrumentos y recomendaciones


Scenarios Process Scenarios Process About the Scenarios The project presents a range of plausible development scenarios for the North Slope and adjacent seas for the time horizon of 2040. The scenarios considered in this analysis represent a “wide but plausible” range of High, Medium and Low resource

AboutObjective the Scenarios Project

Project Objective

The NSSI Scenarios Project was developed and realized under the guidance project presents a range TheThe NSSI Scenarios Project was of developed and realized under the guidance of the focal question: What is the future of energy development, resource plausible development forof energy development, resource of the focal question: What scenarios is the future extraction and associated support activities on the North Slope and adjacent extraction and associated support activities on the North Slope and adjacent the North Slope and adjacent seas seas, through 2040? The identification of the plausible resource development seas, through 2040? The identification of the plausible resource development for the time horizon of 2040. The scenarios that address this question will help contribute to the refinement of scenarios that address this question will help contribute to the refinement of specific research and monitoring priorities on the North Slope and adjacent scenarios considered in this analysis specific research and monitoring priorities on the North Slope and adjacent seas. represent a “wide but plausible” range seas. of High, Medium and Low resource

Scenarios Identification

Scenarios Identification

The scenario process applied to this particular project was composed development intensity. The identification The scenario process applied to this particular project was composed development intensity. The identification of five main steps (Figure 6). The first step involved the identification of of the spatially-explicit scenarios of five main steps (Figure 6). The firstwas step involved the identification of of the spatially-explicit scenarios was the driving forces that will influence the set of consistent variables and the conducted driving forces that will influence the set of consistent variables and through a stakeholderassumptions used to construct the scenarios. The second step focused conducted through a stakeholderassumptions used to construct the scenarios. The second step focused driven process that included local on the identification of critical uncertainties that could become challenging driven process that included local on the identification of critical uncertainties that could become challenging variables within the scenarios. The third step involved the identification knowledge holders, topical experts and variables within the scenarios. The third step involved the identification knowledge holders, topical experts and of the components for each of the three scenarios (High, Medium and stakeholders, sets of the componentsand for was eachguided of the by three scenarios (High, Medium and stakeholders, and was guided by sets Low). The fourth step revisited each scenario and identified the triggers, of The consistent assumptions Low). fourth step revisitedorganized each scenario and identified the triggers, of consistent assumptions organized critical implications and consequences for each. The final step used the critical implications consequences for each. The final step used the within four mainand themes, represented About the Scenarios Project Objective prior products to further explore and identify the research and monitoring About the Scenarios Project Objective within four main themes, represented prior products to further explore and identify the research and monitoring as resource development, NSSI Scenarios Project wasneeded developed and realized under the guidance efforts to address the implications under each scenario. Overall, the TheThe NSSI Scenarios Project wasbiophysical, andThe realized under the guidance project presents aefforts range ofdeveloped The project presents a range of as biophysical, resource development, needed to address the implications under each scenario. Overall, the of development, the drivers. focal question: Whatprocess is the future of energy development, resource was participant driven and required a level of transparency that built of the focal question: Whatscenarios ismarket the future ofsociopolitical energy resource and plausible forparticipant was driven and required a level of transparency that built plausible development scenarios for sociopolitical market and drivers.developmentprocess extraction and associated support activities on the and North Slope and trust among participants ensured that adjacent the final product integrates the extraction and associated support activities on the North Slope and adjacent trust among participants and ensured that the final product integrates the the North Slope and adjacent seas the North Slope and adjacent seas seas, through 2040? The combined identification of the plausible resource development knowledge of workshop participants and expert consultants. seas, through 2040? The identification of the plausible resource development combined knowledge of workshop participants and expert consultants. for the time horizon of 2040. The will help contribute scenarios address this for the time horizon of 2040. The scenarios that address this question to that the refinement ofquestion will help contribute to the refinement of research monitoring priorities on the North Slope and adjacent specific research and monitoring priorities on thespecific North Slope andand adjacent scenarios considered in this analysis scenarios considered in this analysis seas. seas. represent a “wide but plausible” range represent a “wide but plausible” range

Scenarios Process Scenarios Process

Proceso de Simulación de Escenarios

1. Factores o Fuerzas de Cambio Step 1

Step 2

Step 1

4. Modelación/Simulación deStepEscenarios Step 3 Step 4 5

2 and Low resource Step 3 Step 4 of High, Step Medium Identification Step 5 Scenarios ConsisteIdentification en la identificaciónScenarios de aquellos Considerando las tendencias variables The scenario process development intensity. The identification The scenario process applied to this particular project was composed applied to this particular project was composed development intensity. The identification factores que pueden influenciar de manera en los factores de cambio, se modelan of five main steps (Figure 6). The first step involved the identification of of five main steps (Figure scenarios 6). The first step involved the identification of of the spatially-explicit was A ? C of the spatially-explicit scenarios was ? que ? reflejen distintas X the forces that will? influence the set of consistent variables and másforces potente la trayectoria dedriving desarrollo escenarios X the driving that will influence the set of consistent variables and ? ? conducted through a stakeholderconducted through a stakeholder? assumptions used to construct the scenarios. The second step focused assumptions usedterritorio. to?construct the scenarios. second step focused de process un Entre The otros factores, tendencias y decisiones. Se pueden ? driven that included local ? X driven process that included local on thebecome identification of critical that could become challenging ? on the identification of critical uncertainties that could ? uncertainties X challenging destacan: crecimiento poblacional, simular escenarios tendenciales o ? variables the scenarios. The third step involved the identification knowledge topical experts and variables withinholders, the scenarios. The third step involved the within identification knowledge holders, topical experts and ? Bthree D (High,que cambios demográficos, cambios de uso reflejen condiciones extremas en of the components for each of the scenarios Medium and ? of the components for each of the three scenarios (High, Medium and X stakeholders, and was guided by sets ? stakeholders, and was guided by sets ? X fourth Low). The step revisited each ? scenario and identified the triggers, suelo, riesgo cambio climático, algunas variables. Cada escenario debe Low). de The fourth step revisited each y scenario and identified the triggers, of consistent assumptions organized of consistent assumptions organized About the Scenarios Project Objective critical implications and consequences for each. The final step used the Future Driving Forces Key Trends Plausible Critical criticalrecursos implications and consequences normativas for each. The finalurbanas step used the disponibles, integrar supuestos que sean posibles, Driving Forces Plausible Critical The NSSI Scenarios Project was developed and realized under the Future guidance within four Trends main themes, represented within four main themes, Therepresented project presents a range of Key R&M efforts and Critical Implications products to further explore andScenarios identify the research and monitoring prior products to further explore and identify the prior research and monitoring R&M efforts and Critical Scenarios Implications of the focal question: What is theamenazas future of energy development, resource (zonificación, límite urbano, etc.), internamente consistentes y lógicos. Uncertainties as biophysical, resource development, needed toOverall, addressthe the implications under each scenario. Overall, the as biophysical, resource development, plausible development scenarios for to address the implications underefforts efforts needed each scenario. Uncertainties extraction and associated support activities on the North Slope and adjacent naturales, etc. process was participant process was driven and required a level of transparency that driven built and required a level of transparency that built market andparticipant sociopolitical drivers. market and sociopolitical drivers. the North Slope and adjacent seas of High, Medium and Low resource

R&M

R&M

Scenarios Process

R&M

R&M

R&M

R&M

R&M

R&M

seas, through 2040? The identification of the plausible resource development Workshop #1 #2 trust among participants and ensured that the final productWorkshop integrates the trust among participants and ensured that the final product integrates the Workshop #1 #2 to the refinement Workshop for the time horizon of 2040. The scenarios that address this question Workshop will help contribute of #3 combined knowledge of workshop participants and expert consultants. combined knowledge of workshop participants and expert consultants. Scenarios Scenarios specific research and monitoring priorities on the North Slope and adjacent scenarios considered in this analysis Scenarios Scenarios Research and Identification Implications seas. Implications Monitoring represent a “wide but plausible” Identification range

2. Tendencias e Incertidumbres

Nov 2014

Workshop #3 Research and Monitoring

Jun 2015 Feb Escenarios 2016 5. Impactos e Implicancias de

Nov 2014 Scenarios Identification Jun 2015 Feb 2016 of High, Medium and Low resource Step Step 24 StepStep 3 5 Step 4 Step 5 Step 2 Step13 Step Figure 6. Scenario process to project the project The scenario process applied to this applied particular was composed development identification Figure 6.intensity. ScenarioThe process applied to the project Considerando las steps variables anteriores, se the identification of Cada escenario se evalúa en torno a los of five main (Figure 6). The first step involved of the spatially-explicit scenarios was 8driving | Prioritizing Science Needs Through Participatory Scenarios for Energy and Resource Development and Adjacent Seas definen lasthe tendencias emergentes athe?futuro indicadores de impacto seleccionados forces that will influence set of consistent variables and on the North Slope ? 8 | Prioritizing Science Needs Through Participatory Scenarios for Energy and Resource Development on the North Slope and Adjacent Seas R&M conducted through a stakeholderR&M assumptions used to constructLo the scenarios. The second step focused en rangos de variabilidad. anterior y se comparan con metas y objetivos. ? ? ? that couldR&Mbecome challenging driven process that?included local R&M on the identification of critical uncertainties conforma la arquitectura de los escenarios Es posible establecer recomendaciones ? variables within the scenarios. The third knowledge holders, topical experts and ? step involved the identification R&M R&M a modelar yof evaluar. y priorizaciones de acciones para cada the components for each of the three scenarios (High, Medium and stakeholders, and was guided by sets ? ? R&M de una forma proactiva y Low). The fourth step revisited each scenario and identified the triggers, uno de ellos R&M of consistent assumptions organized ? critical implications and consequences?for each. The final step used the anticipándose a condiciones futuras. within four main themes, represented further explore and identify the research and monitoring Future Driving Forcesprior products KeytoCritical Trends Plausible Critical Future Driving Forces Key Trends Plausible as biophysical, resource development, efforts needed to address the implications under each scenario. Overall, the R&M efforts and Critical Scenarios Implications R&M efforts and Critical Scenarios Implications process was participant driven and required a level of transparency that built marketUncertainties and sociopolitical drivers. Uncertainties trust among participants and ensured that the final product integrates the combinedWorkshop knowledge of #1workshop participants and expert consultants. Workshop #2 Workshop #3

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?

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?

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?

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?

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?

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?

Workshop #2

Scenarios Scenarios Identification Implications

Scenarios Identification

3. Step Metas y Objetivos Participativos 1 Step 2 Step 3 Nov 2014 Nov 2014

Jun 2015

Workshop #3 Research and Monitoring

Step 4 2016 Feb

Scenarios Implications

6. Estrategias y Recomendaciones Step 5 Jun 2015 Feb 2016

La participación de actores y tomadores de decisiones es calve en esta parte para ? X Development on?the North Slope and Adjacent Seas 8 | and Prioritizing Science Needs Through Participatory Scenarios for Energy and Resource 8 | Prioritizing Science Needs Through Participatory Scenarios for Energy Resource Development on the North Slope and Seas generar yAdjacent traer conocimiento ? ? consenso local en función de las implicancias ? X de las ? decisiones en el entorno territorial, recursos ? disponibles, indicadores de X impacto y ? ? metas para el monitoreo. Figure 6. Scenario process applied to the projectFigure 6. Scenario process applied to the project

Driving Forces

Key Trends and Critical Uncertainties

Plausible Scenarios

R&M R&M

R&M

R&M

Critical Implications

Future R&M efforts

Workshop #1

Workshop #2

Workshop #3

Scenarios Identification

Scenarios Implications

Research and Monitoring

Nov 2014

Jun 2015

Feb 2016

Figure 6. Scenario process applied to the project 8 | Prioritizing Science Needs Through Participatory Scenarios for Energy and Resource Development on the North Slope and Adjacent Seas

Research and Monitoring

En base a los impactos de los escenarios modelados, se pueden tomar decisiones informadas para establecer políticas públicas, planes y medidas específicas. La cuantificación anticipada de impactos puede ser utilizado para comparar los resultados de metas a nivel territorial.

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APROXIMACIÓN POR ESCENARIOS EN DIVERSAS ÁREAS DE PRÁCTICA Área 1: Planificación y Conservación Ambiental Las variaciones climáticas han generado cambios en los ecosistemas terrestres y marinos lo que, sumado a presiones antropogénicas, supone un desafío para la conservación de ecosistemas y los servicio que proveen. Analizamos sistemas marinos y terrestres, para proveer herramientas de gestión y planificación ambiental, maximizando la funcionalidad ecológica de los paisajes. Modelamos escenarios de desarrollo para evaluar impactos ecológicos de diversos procesos humanos y naturales, como desarrollo urbano y cambio climático.

Área 2: Cambio Climático, Riesgo y Resiliencia Hoy en día, millones de personas se exponen a las amenazas naturales, las cuales se han visto acentuadas por el cambio climático. A la vez que contribuyen al cambio climático, las ciudades se vuelven espacios de vulnerabilidad ante los efectos de este. Responder al riesgo futuro es una tarea compleja, dada la gran incertidumbre de los modelos predictivos. GeoAdaptive desarrolla escenarios multi-amenaza, considerando factores socioambientales, financieros y económicos, para identificar áreas vulnerables en el futuro. La integración del cambio climático en la modelación de amenazas ayuda a cuantificar los riesgos humanos y económicos potenciales, así como el riesgo fiscal y capacidad de reposición de los elementos expuestos.

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Área 3: Análisis e Inteligencia Territorial GeoAdaptive utiliza herramientas de análisis y modelación de sistemas espaciales, junto con procesos de simulación de escenarios para explorar alternativas de desarrollo territorial inclusivo y sustentable. Nuestro equipo aplica métodos avanzados en percepción remota, modelación geoespacial y simulación económica y ecológica para dilucidar patrones de conflicto, impacto y sinergias. Lo anterior permite explorar distintas acciones en el territorio, evaluando los resultados para una variedad de usos y sectores, tales como desarrollo urbano, infraestructuras, turismo, agricultura, silvicultura, minería y sistemas naturales.

Área 4: Desarrollo y Planificación Económica Debido al gran crecimiento poblacional en los últimos cincuenta años, así como los desafíos en la distribución de recursos y riqueza, hoy en día existen alrededor de 836 millones de personas (United Nations, 2015) que luchan por satisfacer sus necesidades básicas (nutrición adecuada, agua potable y saneamiento). Con años de experiencia en países menos desarrollados y en vías de desarrollo, GeoAdaptive ha abordado complejos desafíos de inequidad, pobreza, inclusión y desarrollo socioeconómico. Colaboramos con gobiernos y organizaciones multilaterales y de la sociedad civil para desarrollar estrategias que aporten al desarrollo de comunidades y ayuden a las personas a alcanzar su potencial.

Área 5: Sustentabilidad Urbana Los asentamientos urbanos enfrentan cuatro desafíos críticos a nivel mundial: (1) procesos de urbanización rápida, (2) cambios demográficos, (3) nuevas sinergias entre áreas rurales y centros urbanos y (4) incertidumbres en función de riesgos traídos por el cambio climático. La síntesis de información analítica con modelos de gobernanza proactiva y soluciones concretas en forma de proyectos, planes y políticas son esenciales para empoderar a los tomadores de decisiones y responder apropiadamente a estos desafíos. Para esto, GeoAdaptive desarrolla escenarios de crecimiento urbano para planificar el desarrollo en relación a necesidades de suelo, vivienda, infraestructura, áreas verdes y servicios.

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LUGARES DONDE HEMOS APLICADO PLANIFICACIÓN POR ESCENARIOS

Proyectos de Planificación por Escenarios • • • • • • • • • • • •

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North Slope, Alaska Montego Bay, Jamaica Península de Florida Estado de Florida Península de Osa y Golfito San José, Costa Rica Cabo del Este Salta, Argentina Mar del Plata, Argentina Barranquilla, Colombia Montería, Colombia Goiânia, Brasil


Manejando la Incertidumbre frente a los DesafĂ­os Globales | 15


Scenarios Process

Cambio Climático y Recursos Naturales

Resumen

About the Scenarios Project Objective El futuro del ártico Estadounidense es difícil de predecir, The NSSI Scenarios Project w The project presents a range of particularmente con el incremento de los requerimientos of the focal question: What is t plausible development scenarios for extraction and associated supp energéticos, como petróleo, y el cambio climático. the North Slope and adjacent seas seas, through 2040? The ident Estos tendrán for impactos e implicancias en los About cambios the Scenarios Project Objective the time horizon of 2040. The scenarios that address this que The NSSI Scenarios Project was developed and The project presents de a range of cuales las comunidades dependen. realized under the guidance ecosistemas los specific research and monitorin scenarios considered this analysis of the focal question:inWhat is the future of energy development, resource plausible development scenarios for De esta forma, se requieren establecer programas de seas. extraction and associated support activities on the North Slope and adjacent represent a “wide but plausible” range the North Slope and adjacent seas seas, through 2040? The identification of thede plausible resource development monitoreo para evaluar ofmúltiples escenarios futuros High, Medium and Low resource Scenarios Identifica for the time horizon of 2040. The scenarios that address this question will help contribute to the refinement of cambio, considerando la línea baseintensity. ecológica y depriorities recursos TheNorth scenario applied t identification specific research andThe monitoring on the Slope process and adjacent scenarios considered in this analysis development seas. of five main steps (Figure 6). T naturales. represent a “wide but plausible” range of the spatially-explicit scenarios was

Scenarios Process Escenarios Participativos para el Desarrollo Scenarios Process de Recursos Naturales y Scenarios Process Energéticos en Scenarios Process Alaska of High, Medium and Low resource

the driving forces that will influe assumptions used to construct

Scenarios conducted through Identification a stakeholder-

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8 | Prioritizing Science Needs Through Participatory Scenarios for Energy and Resource Development on the North Slope and Adjacent Seas

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Cambio Climático, Risgo y Resiliencia Driving Forces 16 | Fuente: hqworld.net/gallery

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8 | Prioritizing Science Needs Through Participatory Scenarios for Energy and Resource Development on the North Slope and Adjacent Seas

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Scenarios and Implications The following pages summarize the final three scenarios, representing each level of resource development (High, Medium and Low) as chosen by participants. Each presents the final digitized map and the storyline narrative generated for the particular scenario (Workshop #1).

High Development Scenario

En este proyecto fue importante trabajar con representantes de los grandes actores locales, tales como las comunidades, asentamientos y compañías extractivas. Este trabajo permitió incorporar una variedad de visiones y campos disciplinares, incrementando el nivel de conocimiento de la región y de los posibles impactos de las actividades Keyfuturas. Driver Selection

Figura 2. Desarrollo extractivo alto

Medium Development Scenario Digitized work Workshop #1 - Group A

Storyline developed by participants: Figura 1. Taller participativo

Driver Relationships

Desarrollo de Escenarios y Evaluación Se desarrollaron tres escenarios, representando tres niveles de extracción de recursos (alto, medio y bajo). Estos se representaron en mapas y gráficos y a través de una narrativa, detallando los supuestos, incertidumbres, impactos en los sistemas socioSpatial Extent of ambientales y los actores clave en este proceso. Development Features Los actores pudieron de esta forma, internalizar la evaluación de sus propias acciones en el territorio y definir acciones concretas.

nd Resource Development on the North Slope and Adjacent Seas

Valor Agregado para el Cliente Este proyecto permitió al NSSI, sus afiliados y actores involucrados priorizar la implementación de actividades de investigación y monitoreo de forma colectiva en base a múltiples futuros extractivos al año 2040. Así, las herramientas de monitoreo permitirán evaluar los impactos más importantes en los sistemas socio-ecológicos de forma temprana y proactiva. Además, los actores se beneficiaron de la oportunidad de discutir, con expertos e instituciones, los posibles cambios que experimentará la región.

Scenarios and Implication

• • • •

Global political instability encourages greater US energy development, including in Alaska. Policies for climate change and emissions do not limit all fossil fuel use, but focus primarily on limiting coal use. There are no major environmental disasters in Alaska or the Russian Arctic. Oil and gas development on the North Slope is highly profitable and is coupled with a permissive regulatory environment, decreased fracking in the lower 48 states, and decreased production overseas. • Large investments in new R&D technology (exploration & development) as well as spill prevention and response and some investment for renewable energy. following pages summarize final three scenarios, • The Significant new infrastructure developmentthe occurs both onshore and offshore and is not significantly affected by climate changeeach or sea level ice conditions. representing of resource development (High, • There is an increase in jobs and revenue to North Slope communities. Industry activities strain community Medium and Low) as chosen by participants. Each presents infrastructure & have social impacts, but new infrastructure put in place as mitigation measures helps to reduce the thecost final digitized map and the storyline narrative generated for of energy / utilities to communities. • the There are directscenario impacts on subsistence species particular (Workshop #1).and food security despite mitigation measures to reduce subsistence impacts.

High De

Low Development Scenario

14 | Prioritizing Science Needs Through Participatory Scenarios for Energy and Resource Development on the North Slope and Adjacent Seas

Figura 3. Desarrollo extractivo medio

Digitized work Workshop #1 - Group A

Storyline developed by participants: •

Moderate profitability of oil & gas development on the North Slope is linked to the regulatory environment that may counter the effects of high oil prices. Business-as-usual climate policies do not negatively affect oil and gas development. No major environmental disaster occurs in the Arctic. There is a stable or somewhat lower demand for energy. No significant new extensive infrastructure projects occur but incremental infrastructure development takes place in NPR-A and the Beaufort Sea. There are moderate investments in new technology but no investments to support heavy oil extraction in Alaska. Modest revenue sharing has some benefits to the state & borough, and provides some support for local economy and jobs. There is a medium level of impact on subsistence activities. Some mitigation measures put in place reduce impacts from industry activities.

• • • • • •

North Slope Science Initiative | 15

Digitized work Workshop #1 - Group D

Storyline developed by participants: •

W

For reasons related to climate change & public perception, coupled with environmental disaster, federal government

Figura 4. Desarrollo extractivo bajo has shut down offshore activity.

Storyline developed bycause participants: Lack of access to resource & sufficient price companies to shut down exploration and production, which results

•• • • • •• •• • • ••

in closure of pipeline. Engineering and technology solutionsencourages aren’t cost-effective enoughUS to avoid this outcome. Global political instability greater energy development, including in Alaska. Onshore export related infrastructure is dismantled, TAPS is transferred to State of Alaska. Policies for climate change and emissions do not limit all fossil fuel use, but focus primarily on li Local resources are developed for community use, though restrictive federal policy results in declining economics. There are no major environmental in Alaska orthe the Russian Arctic. Lack of economic opportunity causes an exodus ofdisasters people and resources from North Slope and the state. Corresponding factors include no smaller in toisreplace majors, balance and of economics. Oil and gas development on companies the Northcoming Slope highly profitable is coupled with a permissiv State introduces a number of initiatives – income tax, fiscal policy, co-investment – which fail. environment, decreased fracking in the lower 48 states, and decreased production overseas. Social and academic systems fail. Large investments in new R&D technology & development) as well as spill preventi If North Slope shuts down, Cook Inlet becomes center of oil & (exploration gas activity.

some investment for renewable energy. Manejando la Incertidumbre frente a los Desafíos Globales 17not significa Significant new infrastructure development occurs both onshore and offshore and| is climate change or sea ice conditions. 16 | Prioritizing Science Needs Through Participatory Scenarios for Energy and Resource Development on the North Slope and Adjacent Seas • There is an increase in jobs and revenue to North Slope communities. Industry activities strain c infrastructure & have social impacts, but new infrastructure put in place as mitigation measures •


Riesgo, Vulnerabilidad y Desarrollo Urbano

Resumen

Análisis de Riesgo y Vulnerabilidad Muti-Amenaza para una Ciudad Caribeña

Ubicada en la parte noroeste de Jamaica, Montego Bay es un destino turístico popular que se encuentra expuesto a riesgos naturales. Junto con el gobierno local y agencias nacionales, GeoAdaptive desarrolló una evaluación multi-amenaza considerando seis amenazas naturales: inundación costera, vientos, aumento del nivel del mar, inundación fluvial y remoción en masa. Se utilizaron modelos hidrológicos y climáticos en SIG para analizar las distintas amenazas. Cada amenaza se evaluó en diferentes niveles de intensidad y frecuencias de retorno. Se calcularon los riesgos económicos y humanos para escenarios tendenciales de crecimiento urbano y para escenarios futuros. La comparación de los niveles de impacto para las distintas amenazas en cada escenario fue utilizada por los actores y autoridades para definir inversiones y políticas para la ciudad, de manera de prepararla y robustecerla frente a las amenazas presentes y potenciales.

Aproximación

Cliente: Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo Fecha: 2014 Ubicación: Montego Bay, Jamaica

Los modelos de riesgo y amenazas fueron complementados con estudios previos de desastres naturales para desarrollar una evaluación de riesgo multiamenaza. Los impactos de estos se evaluaron para varios escenarios de desarrollo urbano. •

Datos meteorológicos históricos fueron utilizados para calcular los riesgos hidrometeorológicos en la cuenca de drenaje para períodos de retorno de 25, 50, 100 y 500 años. Además, se consideraron proyecciones de cambio climático para amenazas relativas al nivel del mar y tormentas.

Se analizó el valor de los elementos expuestos a las amenazas, tanto físicos como humanos. Esto permitió estimar el riesgo privado y fiscal asociado a cada amenaza.

Observaciones de campo y validación con actores y expertos locales fue necesaria para calibrar los modelos de amenazas y riesgos.

Palabras claves Inundación costera, análisis de riesgo, amenazas naturales

Áreas de Práctica

Sustentabilidad Urbana

18 | Fuente: Florida Park Service

Cambio Climático, Riesgo y Resiliencia


Figura 5. Inundación fluvial, período de retorno de 100 años

Desarrollo de Escenarios y Evaluación Utilizando los resultados de los modelos predictivos de crecimiento urbano, se estimó la fragmentación de ecosistemas claves para la adaptación al cambio climático y mitigación de amenazas naturales. Estas áreas fueron validadas por The Nature Conservancy. Además, se utilizaron las proyecciones del nivel del mar realizadas por la Universidad de la Florida (GeoPlan Center) y las amenazas de tormentas por huracanes para evaluar la reducción en los servicios de mitigación de amenazas de ecosistemas claves, tales como manglares, pantanos y pastos acuáticos.

Valor Agregado para el Cliente Figura 6. Impactos de amenzas naturales en diferentes escenarios de crecimiento urbano y cambio climático

Los análisis se sintetizaron en una herramienta de difusión para ser utilizada por las autoridades urbanas, de recursos naturales y la sociedad civil. El proyecto se benefició de la colaboración de socios estratégicos en diversos sectores.

Manejando la Incertidumbre frente a los Desafíos Globales | 19


Conservación, CC y Desarrollo Urbano

Escenarios Climáticos y Análisis de Vulnerabilidad de Especies Amenazadas Cooperativa para la Conservación de Paisajes de la Península de Florida

Resumen La Península de Florida es una de las regiones más vulnerables al cambio climático y presiones antropogénicas en los EE. UU. Su baja elevación la hace susceptible al nivel del mar y los ecosistemas costeros presentes allí son muy sensibles al balance entre agua salada y dulce y variaciones de precipitaciones y temperaturas. Además, es de esperar que la población aumente al doble en los próximos 50 años, lo que requerirá alrededor de 1.7 millones de acres adicionales para vivienda, considerando los patrones de desarrollo urbano actuales. Estas presiones generarán impactos sin precedentes en el paisaje, el cual a su vez protege a las comunidades costeras de tormentas y huracanes. En este caso, la conservación del paisaje requiere lidiar con dos grandes incertidumbres. La primera se refiere a la respuesta que 67 especies amenazadas tendrán a la disminución de hábitat producto del cambio climático y desarrollo urbano. La segunda se refiere a patrones de comportamiento humano y políticos, relacionados a preferencias de desarrollo residencial y disponibilidad de fondos para la conservación. Considerando lo anterior, el proyecto utiliza escenarios que simulan los impactos en ecosistemas de distintos esquemas de desarrollo.

Cliente: Peninsular Florida Landscape Conservation Cooperative (PFLCC) Fecha: 2012 Ubicación: Florida, EE. UU.

Aproximación

Palabras Claves Incertidumbre climática, estrategias de conservación, patrones de desarrollo urbano

Áreas de Práctica

Planificación y Conservación Ambiental 20 | Fuente: Nasa Observatory

Análisis e Inteligencia Territorial

Los escenarios confeccionados son multidimensionales, incorporando factores biofísicos y socioeconómicos. Estos incluyen cuatro fuerzas de cambio: cambio climático, regulación urbana, crecimiento poblacional y disponibilidad de recursos financieros para la conservación. La simulación considera acciones de conservación en el tiempo tanto públicas como privadas, además de las restricciones presupuestarias y tendencias de crecimiento asociadas a preferencias sociales. El resultado de impacto en los sistemas naturales de cada escenario, permitió a la Cooperativa para la Conservación identificar aquellos mecanismos de conservación y políticas públicas más adecuadas para enfrentar los escenarios futuros.


Example Development and Conservation Scenarios (MIT 2010)

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Scenario B Land Use Composition 2060

Scenario C Land Use Composition 2060

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Develop a decision support framework 1.and Develop fora the decision PFLCC support and other framework for the PFLCC and other Inboth do to key species habitats. Resilient areas are those which cels, and FNAI land represent cover habitat cels, andrepresent FNAI land cover and habitat maps. to key species and habitats. Resilient areas are and those which 4.maps. Test various potential conservation strategies, 4.conservación Test various potential conservation strategi FWS programs to determine resilient FWS areas programs for conservation to determinerelated resilient areas for conservation related se establecieron áreas de prioritarias que sonincluding “no regrets” conservation decisions because they are robust across aare “no regrets” conservation decisions because they robust across a 4.29 4.48 4.78 4.50 5.20 6.00 Urban Urban This project is supported by and in This par p to key species andElhabitats. Resilient to key areas species are those and habitats. which represent Resilient areas are those which represent For more information contact: For more information contact: The project is developed by: The project is developed by: fee-simple purchase and voluntary conservation methods. Vo ners escenario de la izquierda muestra una red4. Test extensiva fee-simple purchase and voluntary conservat vitales4. para la resiliencia en la public eventualidad cualquier various de potential conservation Teststrategies, various potential including conservation both strategies, de including both public range of scenarios. range of scenarios. “no regrets” conservation decisions “no because regrets” they conservation are robust decisions across adesarrollo because are robust across aJuanfee-simple Dr. Michael Flaxman or Dr. Juan Carlos Dr.they Michael Vargas Flaxman or voluntary Dr. Carlos Vargas with the following federal agencies: with techniques span atechniques range of approaches including purely educatio conservación de ecosistemas críticos y un urbano fee-simple purchase and conservation purchase methods. and voluntary Voluntary conservation methods. Voluntary escenario. of approaches includin tat cht 0.33 LLC 0.38 0.44span aLLC 0.63 andspan 1.34a range 1.64 Sea Level Rise Seaincluding Level Rise range of scenarios. range of scenarios. GeoAdaptive GeoAdaptive techniques span purely a range educational of approaches including purelysuch educational voluntary, to incentive-based techniques as taxand adjustme Al contrario, el range of approaches   caracterizado por un patrón más compacto. techniques voluntary, to incentive-based techniques such 288 Norfolk St. Cambridge MA, 02139 288 boundary Norfolk St. Cambridge 02139 such 2. Extend thela prior2.MIT scenarios to fit the PFLCC (add 14MA, gure 14: Sce enario paramete ers and compari ison of land use e changes   voluntary, to fit incentive-based techniques voluntary, to incentive-based as14 tax adjustments techniques and such as tax adjustments and tant f Extend theun prior MIT scenarios to the PFLCC boundary (add escenario de muestra futuro con una subida del payments for ecosystem services. payments for ecosystem services. 2. Extend the prior MIT scenarios 2. toderecha Extend fit the PFLCC the prior boundary MIT scenarios (add 14 to fit the PFLCC boundary (add 14 Other Other 2.24 2.00 1.87 2.26 2.05 1.92 info@geoadaptive.com info@geoadaptive.com payments for ecosystem services. payments for ecosystem services. counties to the current MIT geography), using participatory counties toscenario the current MIT scenario geography), counties to the current MITmar scenario counties geography), to the current using participatory MIT scenario geography), participatoryusing participatory nivel del extrema, bajos presupuestos para la conservación +1 (617) 714-4157 +1 (617)using 714-4157 processes to consider the new issues important within the extended processes tothe consider the newwww.geoadaptive.com issues important within the extended processes to consider the new issues processes important towww.geoadaptive.com consider within the new issues important extended y desarrollo urbano-residencial deextended baja densidad, elwithin Evaluate if how and how major choices for simulatc 5. Evaluate ifcual andthe how major methodological 5.5.Evaluate ifchoices and for major simulation methodological andmethodological for simulation and 5. Evaluate if and choices how major methodological area. area. area. area. grandes age impact assessmentspecies-habitat affect the conclusions impact assessment drawn.assessment affect the conclusions drawn. ocupa extensiones 20 de| P tierra dondespecies-habitat actualmente species-habitat impact affect the conclusions drawn. species-habitat impact assessment affect c © 2012 GeoAdaptive Inc. © 2012 GeoAdaptive Inc. Projectthe Summ 2 2 hay manglares y pantanos que protegen a las comunidades 3. isUpgrade supporting datM costeras e interiores de amenazas naturales. project isby: supported by and in partnership This project supported by and in partnership For more information contact: For more information contact: The project is developed by: The project This is developed Conservation

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Project Objectives

This project supported by and is insuppo partn information The projectwith is developed by: This project Forcontact: more information contact: The project developed Dr. Michael FlaxmanFor or Dr.more Juan Carlos Dr. Vargas Michael Flaxman or Dr. Juan Carlos Vargas the following federalis agencies: withby: the following federalisagencies: GeoAdaptive LLC Dr. Michael Flaxman GeoAdaptive LLC Manejando la Incertidumbrewith frentethe a los Desafíos Globales | 21 or Dr. Juan Flaxman Carlos Vargas Dr. Michael or Dr. Juan Carlos Vargas following federal agencies: with the following f 288 Norfolk St. Cambridge MA, 02139LLC 288 Norfolk St. Cambridge MA, 02139 GeoAdaptive GeoAdaptive LLC info@geoadaptive.com info@geoadaptive.com Cambridge MA, 02139 Norfolk St. Cambridge MA, 02139 +1 (617) 714-4157 288 Norfolk St.+1 (617)288 714-4157 info@geoadaptive.com info@geoadaptive.com www.geoadaptive.com www.geoadaptive.com

1. Develop a decision support framework for the PFLCC and other FWS programs to determine resilient areas for conservation related to key species and habitats. Resilient areas are those which represent

mation, including LIDAR-ba cels, and FNAI land cover a


Conservación y Cambio Climático

Resumen

Iniciativa para Paisajes Acuáticos y Terrestres Resilientes

Presentada por la Casa Blanca en el Día de la Tierra el 2015, esta iniciativa es un esfuerzo de la administración Obama para apoyar estrategias de conservación de paisajes críticos. Se enfocan en generar vínculos entre agencias federales y actores locales en los diversos estados para conservar y restaurar paisajes terrestres y acuáticos, de manera de aumentar la resiliencia y adaptación al cambio climático. La región de estudio abarca siete distritos en el suroeste del estado de Florida, en donde la combinación de crecimiento poblacional, aumento del nivel del mar, y aumento de las temperaturas marinas amenazan los ecosistemas terrestres y marinos.

Simulación de Cambios en Hábitats y Vulnerabilidad Costera en el Suroeste de Florida

Cliente: Peninsular Florida Landscape Conservation Cooperative; USFWS Fecha: 2016 Ubicación: Suroeste de Florida, EE. UU.

Aproximación •

Se desarrolló una plataforma web interactiva enfocada en la entrega de información de manera didáctica y visual. En esta se pueden explorar los impactos de diversos escenarios de cambio climático sobre los servicios ecosistémicos.

Se evaluaron las fuerzas de cambio, presiones y servicios ecosistémicos críticos, así como también la resiliencia de dos escenarios de desarrollo.

Se analizó la vulnerabilidad costera y la exposición de la población a las amenazas climáticas. Para esto se utilizó el modelo InVEST del proyecto de investigación “Natural Capital”, junto a modelaciones de riesgo en SIG.

Palabras Clave Vulnerabilidad costera, servicios ecosistémicos, cambio en hábitats

Áreas de Práctica

Planificación y Conservación Ambiental 22 | Fuente: Florida Park Service

Cambio Climático, Riesgo y Resiliencia


Figura 8. Web interactiva con visualización de escenarios

Desarrollo de Escenarios y Evaluación Este estudio proyectó escenarios de conservación mirando al año 2060 para evaluar la resiliencia de los sistemas naturales, los impactos en servicios ecosistémicos importantes, las implicancias en recursos naturales y las amenazas naturales a las que poblaciones costeras podrían ser expuestas.

Valor Agregado para el Cliente Los resultados fueron sintetizados en una plataforma interactiva que permitió a los actores involucrados generar tracción y conciencia respecto del rol de los hábitats en reducir los efectos adversos del cambio climático. web: http://geoadaptive.com/rlwi_southwest_florida/

Figura 9. Visualización de los servicios ecosistémicos en paisajes clave Manejando la Incertidumbre frente a los Desafíos Globales | 23


Conservación y Cambio Climático

KeysMAP2 Implementación de un Marco de Planificación por Escenarios para Ecosistemas Marinos y Costeros

Cliente: Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission; Fish and Wildlife Research Institute Fecha: 2017 Ubicación: Sur de Florida, EE. UU.

Resumen Este proyecto informó el Plan de Acción para la Vida Silvestre de Florida en un área que abarca desde la bahía de Tampa hasta Port Charlotte en la costa oeste del estado. El objetivo del proyecto fue evaluar el potencial que tienen las acciones de manejo y conservación de prevenir impactos negativos en especies marinas en función de escenarios de cambio climático y desarrollo urbano. Se modelaron escenarios para evaluar el impacto de diferentes decisiones y diseñar estrategias de conservación adecuadas enfocadas en “especies indicadores” (especies que reflejan el estado general de salud de un ecosistema). Por medio de un proceso participativo con expertos e investigación, la primera etapa del proyecto identificó las especies marinas prioritarias y los factores ambientales críticos para su supervivencia. La segunda etapa consistió en la identificación de umbrales gatillantes asociados al cambio climático, de manera de detectar las variables de importancia para cada especie. Entre estos destacan: temperatura de la superficie del mar, salinidad y cambios morfológicos en la costa. A su vez, estos fueron divididos en subcategorías; por ejemplo, el cambio morfológico costero se dividió en tasa de erosión, persistencia de manglares y nivel de salinidad de humedales. Los valores para cada umbral se definieron en base a la investigación existente e información de campo para especies locales. La etapa final sugirió una serie de programas de monitoreo para determinar cuando cada umbral es alcanzado. Con esto, los tomadores de decisiones pueden activar estrategias de adaptación específicas. Cada estrategia es adaptable de acuerdo al escenario que se pueda dar.

Palabras Clave Vulnerabilidad costera, servicios ecosistémicos, cambio en hábitats

Áreas de Práctica

Planificación y Conservación Ambiental 24 | Fuente: hqworld.net/gallery

Aproximación El proceso de modelación involucró la representación de cambios en patrones climáticos, sus impactos y patrones de desarrollo urbano. Se confeccionaron tres escenarios para representar trayectorias alternativas de cambio en los usos de suelo y sus efectos en ecosistemas marinos y costeros: una línea de base histórica y dos escenarios construidos participativamente con expertos locales y proyecciones de las variables de interés.


Desarrollo de Escenarios y Evaluación Los escenarios consideraron varias variables biofísicas, tales como temperatura marina, salinidad del agua, aumento del nivel del mar en sistemas marinos y estuarios, cambios en la vegetación costera y urbanización en zonas litorales. Una vez evaluados los impactos en cada escenario, se desarrollaron una serie de estrategias de adaptación específicas para la región y especies indicadores. Se seleccionaron estrategias junto con expertos en biología marina, tomando en consideración factores como manejo y fuerzas de cambio.

Figura 10. Distribución de especies costeras sensibles al cambio climático. Se basa en la expansión futura de humedales costeros salinos y manglares. La figura corresponde al Escenario 1, el cual representa una proyección tendencial al 2020

Valor Agregado para el Cliente Figura 11. Ranking de estrategias de adaptación

El proyecto evaluó la efectividad de las estrategias de manejo desencadenadas por los cambios ambientales inducidos por el clima, de manera de minimizar o prevenir los impactos negativos a las especies marinas costeras en un rango de condiciones de urbanización y escenarios de cambio climático. Estas consideraciones trasladan la discusión desde una dimensión científica hacia una dimensión de toma de decisiones que involucra puntos de vista políticos y sociales. En función de los recursos disponibles, se priorizaron las estrategias más efectivas para cada especie, se definió cómo, cuándo y dónde aplicarlas y se diseñó un sistema de monitoreo.

Figura 12. Esquema que representa la subdivisión en categorías de distintas estrategias

Manejando la Incertidumbre frente a los Desafíos Globales | 25


Conservación, CC y Desarrollo Urbano

Resumen

Conservación de Paisajes y Escenarios de Cambio Climático para el Estado de Florida Un Sistema de Apoyo a la Toma de Decisión para la Conservación

El estado de Florida enfrenta complejos desafíos asociados a los servicios ecosistémicos que ofrecen sus sistemas naturales. La rápida urbanización y crecimiento poblacional generan presión en estos sistemas, causando fragmentación, degradación y destrucción de hábitats. Adicionalmente, el cambio climático introduce una serie de incertidumbres, como cambios en precipitaciones, temperaturas y nivel del mar. A través de una exploración sistemática del territorio a la escala del paisaje, los escenarios pueden ser utilizados para identificar oportunidades de conservación y áreas de conflicto entre desarrollo y ecosistemas. Con el objetivo de explorar la conectividad de hábitats importantes y el impacto de la urbanización sobre estos, GeoAdaptive y Geodesign Technologies modelaron escenarios para todo el estado de Florida, basándose en iniciativas existentes y proyectos anteriores desarrollados por GeoAdaptive.

Aproximación Key Processes Key Processes

Evaluación Participativa Distintos grupos fueron incorporados al Participatory proceso deStakeholder diseño deAssessment los escenarios. Stakeholders, who are responsible for decision and policy making, are involved in the Destacan: Steering Committee, South development of the scenarios and can provide overall validation of the assumptions used in the process. Active, participatory forums allow for creative discussions of the complex Florida Climate Compact, entre otros. social and ecological systems of the region and uncertainties that are part of conservation

planning. Groups of local experts such as the Regional Planning Councils, PFLCC Steering Participatory Stakeholder Assessment Committee, South Florida Climate Compact, and other local and federal organizations are

Cliente: Peninsular Florida Landscape Conservation Cooperative Fecha: 2014 Ubicación: Florida, EE. UU.

Key Processes

Key Processes

Palabras Clave

consulted in these processes. Stakeholders, who are responsible for decision and policy making, are involved in the development of the scenarios and can provide overall validation of the assumptions used in the process. Active, participatory forums allow for creative discussions of the complex social and ecological systems of the region and uncertainties that are part of conservation Participatory Stakeholder Assessment planning. expertsinto such as the Regional Planning Councils,assumptions PFLCC Steering Drivers of Groups change of arelocal organized “dimensions” or a group of bundled and Committee, South Climate Compact, andpolicy other local and organizations are Stakeholders, who areFlorida responsible decision and making, arefederal in thevariables variables. Each dimension has aforseries of ranges or thresholds ofinvolved quantitative consulted inofthese processes. development the scenarios and can provide overall fit validation of The the assumptions used project that represent a group of policies that logically together. Statewide PFLCC inconsidered the process.the Active, participatory forums allow forofcreative following as the primary drivers change:discussions of the complex social and ecological systems of the region and uncertainties that are part of conservation • Change in population planning. Groups of local experts suchfor asconservation the Regional Planning Councils, PFLCC Steering • Financial resources Committee, South Florida Climate Compact, and other local and federal organizations are • Climate change (sea level rise) consulted in these processes. Drivers of change are organized into “dimensions” or a group of bundled assumptions and • Planning assumptions and regulations variables. Each dimension has a series of ranges or thresholds of quantitative variables Participatory Stakeholder Assessment • Conservations strategies that represent a group of policies that logically fit together. The Statewide PFLCC project Selection offollowing Drivers of Change Stakeholders, responsible forprimary decisiondrivers and policy making, are involved in the consideredwho the are as the of change: development •of theChange scenarios can provide overall validation of the assumptions used in and population Drivers of change are organized into “dimensions” or a group of bundled assumptions and in the process. participatory forums allow for creative discussions of the complex • Active, Financial resources forofconservation variables. Each dimension has a series ranges or thresholds of quantitative variables social and ecological systems of the region and uncertainties that are part of conservation • Climate change (sea level rise)fit together. The Statewide PFLCC project that represent group policies that planning. Groupsa of local of experts such as logically the Regional Planning Councils, PFLCC Steering • following Planning and regulations considered the asassumptions the primary ofscenarios change: Multiple South variables are Climate packaged into drivers distinct to test different approaches Committee, Florida Compact, and other local and federal organizations are and model • “alternative infutures”. population • Change Conservations strategies possible The scenarios are guided by a set of demands and suitability consulted in these processes. • Financial resources for conservation factors that are used in the modeling process, along with a set of realistic restrictions in the Climate change (sea level rise) form of•policies, laws or regulations. As part of the process the following factors were used Selection of Drivers of Change • Planning assumptions and regulations as inputs for the model: • Conservations strategies • are Population projections Drivers of change organizedgrowth into “dimensions” or a group of bundled assumptions and • dimension Residential calculations (low, middle and high income) variables. Each has density a series of ranges or thresholds of quantitative variables Multiple variables are packaged into distinct scenarios to test different approaches and model that represent• a group of policies thatfor logically fit together. The Statewide PFLCC project Suitability factors each land use type possible “alternative futures”. The scenarios are guided by a set of demands and suitability considered the as the primary projections drivers ofModeling change: Scenario-based Simulation • following Land use demand factors• thatChange are used in the modeling process, along with a set of realistic restrictions in the in population form of policies, laws or regulations. Asscenarios part of the process theapproaches followingand factors were used •variables Financial resources for Multiple are packaged intoconservation distinct to test different model as inputs for the model: •“alternative Climate change rise) are guided by a set of demands and suitability possible futures”.(sea Thelevel scenarios • are assumptions andprocess, regulations •Planning Population growth projections factors that used in the modeling along with a set of realistic restrictions in the • •Conservations strategies form of policies, laws or regulations. part of the process the following factors were used Residential densityAscalculations (low, middle and high income) asThe inputs for•the model: Suitability factors for each land use type evaluation of different conservation strategies in scale and with realistic parameters projections • Population Land usegrowth demand projections (such as• financial constraints/budgets) can serve as a means to evaluate the “resiliency” of • Residential density calculations (low, middle and high income) Scenario-based Modeling the resulting patternsSimulation (plans which work across a range of conditions).

Selection of Drivers of Change Selección de Fuerzas de Cambio

• •

Cambios poblacionales Recursos financieros para la Selection of Drivers of Change conservación • Cambio climático (nivel del mar) • Regulaciones urbanas • Scenario-based Estrategias Simulation de conservación y Modeling manejo Simulación de Escenarios Scenario-based Simulation Modeling

Estrategias de conservación, escenarios de cambio climático

Strategy A

Strategy B

Variables: • Proyecciones de población • Densidades de desarrollo residencial Evaluation of Conservation Strategies (bajo, medio, alto) • Factores de idoneidad para cada uso • Suitability factors for each land use type de suelo • Land use demand Multiple variables are packaged intoprojections distinct scenarios to test different approaches and model Evaluation of Conservation “alternative futures”. The scenarios guidedStrategies by a set of demands and suitability • possible Proyecciones dearedemanda de suelo

factors that are used in the modeling process, along with a set of realistic restrictions in the form of evaluation policies, lawsof or different regulations. As part of thestrategies process thein following factors were used parameters The conservation scale and with realistic as inputs model:constraints/budgets) can serve as a means to evaluate the “resiliency” of (such for as the financial • Population growth projections theevaluation resulting patterns (plans which work across in a range of conditions). The of different conservation scalehigh and with realistic parameters • Residential density calculationsstrategies (low, middle and income) (such as•financial constraints/budgets) canuse serve Suitability factors for each land typeas a means to evaluate the “resiliency” of the resulting patterns (plans which work across a range of conditions). • Land use demand projections

Evaluation of Conservation Strategies

Áreas de Práctica

Evaluación de Estrategias de Conservación Strategy AConservation Strategy B Peninsular Florida Landscape Scenarios Strategy A

Strategy B

Peninsular Florida Landscape Conservation Scenarios Peninsular Florida Landscape Conservation Scenarios Strategy A Strategy B

Planificación y Conservación Ambiental 26 | Fuente: Lanting / Getty Images

Desarrollo Socioeconómico

Peninsular Florida Landscape Conservation Scenarios

Se realizó una evaluación a nivel regional Evaluation of Conservation Strategies con parámetros tales como restricciones The evaluation of different conservation strategies in scale and with realistic parameters (such as financial constraints/budgets) can serve as a de means toadquisición evaluate the “resiliency” of financieras, estrategias the resulting patterns (plans which work across a range of conditions). de tierras (compra o servidumbres de conservación). Los patrones resultantes en cada escenario fueron evaluados en términos de su resiliencia y capacidad de adaptación a los cambios futuros. 9

9

9 9


Results

Alternative Futures for Florida 2060 Desarrollo de Escenarios y Evaluación

1

Los escenarios permitieron simular futuros alternativos. El escenario 1 representa supuestos radicalmente distintos en cuanto a desarrollo urbano y conservación, mientras que los escenarios 2 y 3 representan cambios incrementales en torno a los mismos factores de cambio. Financial Resources for Conservation

En términos de conservación, el cambio a una estrategia de “servidumbres de conservación” incrementa los beneficios en comparación con un sistema de compra, dado un presupuesto fijo y escalado en función de inversiones recientes. Esto permite 1/3 más de área de conservación de ecosistemas críticos. Además, desde el punto de vista espacial, permite generar un sistema de corredores ecológicos conectados, con beneficios potenciales respecto de adaptación al cambio climático y especies sensibles a restricciones de tamaño de hábitat.

57,500 ac/year

Sea Level Rise

STATEWIDE LAND USE CHANGE 2060 (IN ACRES)

31 million residents 30,000 ac/year

Urban Development

268,902

Suburban Development

1,912,308

Rural Development

478,809

Total Development

50% Fee-simple / 50% Easement & FF Targets

2,660,019

Business As Usual (BAU)

Conservation Easements 1,131,090 Fee-Simple Conservation 792,102 Total Conservation

Population

45,000 ac/year

1 meter by 2100

10% Fee-simple / 90% Easement & CLIP 3.0 Priorities

Proactive

Urbanization

1,923,192

10% Fee-simple / 90% Easement & FF Targets and EG Network

Conservation

(Planning Assumptions and Regulations)

(Strategies & Mechanisms)

Figura 13. Escenario 1

2

Legend

Overall, our “alternative futures” simulations showed major variation between Scenario 1 and Scenarios 2 & 3. The differences between Scenarios 2 and 3 were considerably more nuanced. This is not unexpected, since Scenario 1 represents significantly different assumptions about future development and conservation strategies, whereas Scenarios 2 and 3 represent incremental refinements of current conservation strategies.

2

Interstate Highway Major Rivers Major Lakes

1m Sea Level Rise

In conservation terms, the switch to an easement-based strategy clearly yields some significant benefits given a fixed budget scaled to recent spending. In non-spatial terms, this supports a gain of approximately 1/3 more conservation acreage. In spatial terms, it supports the development of a much more connected network of areas, with potentially important benefits in terms of climate change adaptation and area-sensitive wildlife.

Conservation Urban Areas

In development terms, the major difference is in the character of future urban areas. Under Scenarios 2 and 3, there is substantial redevelopment across the state. This is most notable and most successfulFinancial in the Resources Southeast, where limited land supply, high demand, and overzoning of commercial development provide significant opportunities for commerciallyforstrip Conservation viable infill and mixed57,500 use projects.

Current Land Cover DevelopedLAND Areas USE CHANGE STATEWIDE 2060 (IN ACRES) Public Land

Urban Development

332,279

ac/year

Suburban Development 921,544 STATEWIDE LAND USE CHANGE

16

2060 (IN ACRES) 522,242

Rural Development

Sea Level Rise

Urban Development Total Development 1,776,066332,279 921,544

Rural Development Fee-Simple Conservation 280,396

522,242

Total Development Total Conservation 2,219,268

Urbanization

Total Conservation

Population 31 million residents

30,000 10% Fee-simple ac/year / 90% Easement & FF Targets and EG Network

Business As Usual (BAU)

10% Fee-simple / 90% Easement & CLIP 3.0 Priorities 50% Fee-simple / 50% Easement & FF Targets

Proactive

Conservation

2,219,268

(Planning Assumptions and Regulations)

Figura 14. Escenario 2

3

45,000 ac/year 50% Fee-simple / 50% Easement & FF Targets

1 meter by 2100

1,776,066

1,938,871

La simulación de una serie de escenarios de conservación, con distintas variables territoriales, permitió al cliente planificar la inversión en conservación a nivel estatal en el largo plazo y elegir aquellos mecanismos más exitosos para generar conectividad en los ecosistemas, mantener los servicios ecosistémicos y propiciar capacidad adaptativa ante el cambio climático.

57,500 ac/year

30,000 ac/year

Sea Level Rise

Fee-Simple Conservation 280,396

Valor Agregado para el Cliente

31 million residents

1 meter by 2100

Suburban Development Conservation Easements 1,938,871

Conservation Easements

Population Financial Resources Peninsular Florida Landscape Conservation Scenarios for Conservation

45,000 ac/year

En términos de desarrollo, las mayores diferencias están en los patrones de dispersión de la urbanización. Los escenarios 2 y 3 suponen regeneración y densificación en todo el estado. Esto es más esperable y exitoso en la zona sureste donde las limitaciones de tierra, alta demanda y zonificaciones que potencian vivienda y comercio en conjunto, dan la posibilidad de desarrollos compactos y mixtos.

(Strategies & Mechanisms) Business As Usual 10% Fee-simple / 90% Easement (BAU) & FF Targets and EG Network 10% Fee-simple / 90% Easement & CLIP 3.0 Priorities

Proactive

Urbanization

Conservation

(Planning Assumptions and Regulations)

(Strategies & Mechanisms)

3

STATEWIDE LAND USE CHANGE 2060 (IN ACRES) Urban Development

275,167

STATEWIDE LAND USE CHANGE Suburban Development 861,369 2060 (IN ACRES) Rural Development 503,423 Urban Development 275,167 Total Development 1,639,959 Suburban Development 861,369 Conservation Easements 2,800,544 Rural Development 503,423 Fee-Simple Conservation 160,709 Total Development 1,639,959Financial Resources for Conservation Total Conservation 2,961,253 Conservation Easements 2,800,544 57,500 ac/year

Fee-Simple Conservation 160,709 Sea Level Rise Total Conservation

2,961,253

45,000 ac/year

1 meterby 2100

Sea Level Rise

30,000 ac/year

Financial Resources Population for Conservation 31 million residents 57,500 ac/year 45,000 ac/year

1 meterby 2100

50% Fee-simple / 50% Easement & FF Targets 30,000 ac/year Business As Usual 10% Fee-simple / 90% Easement (BAU) & FF Targets and EG Network

Urbanization

10% Fee-simple / 90% Easement 50% Fee-simple / 50% Easement & CLIP 3.0 Priorities & FF Targets

Proactive

Business As Conservation Usual 10% Fee-simple / 90% Easement (Strategies & Mechanisms) (BAU) & FF Targets and EG Network

(Planning Assumptions and Regulations)

Peninsular Florida Landscape Conservation Scenarios

Urbanization

Proactive

(Planning Assumptions and Regulations)

Peninsular Florida Landscape Conservation Scenarios

Figura 15. Escenario 3

Population 31 million residents

10% Fee-simple / 90% Easement & CLIP 3.0 Priorities

Conservation

17

(Strategies & Mechanisms)

17

Manejando la Incertidumbre frente a los Desafíos Globales | 27


Sustentabilidad y Crecimiento Urbano

Escenarios de Crecimiento Urbano Análisis Prospectivo para un Área Metropolitana

Resumen En conjunto con las autoridades municipales de la Gran Área Metropolitana de San José (GAM), se analizaron y evaluaron los potenciales patrones futuros de crecimiento urbano. La evaluación incluyó la identificación de las tendencias históricas de crecimiento del GAM y la proyección al 2030 y 2050 de la demanda residencial en tres escenarios para cada año: escenario tendencial, plan actual y crecimiento inteligente. La innovación en los modelos analíticos integró distintos niveles de densidad urbana, ingresos y demanda de usos de suelo. Para una comunicación efectiva de estrategias de crecimiento inteligente –el cual se posicionó como el escenario predilecto por parte de los actores– se desarrolló un plan maestro conceptual. El proyecto otorgó herramientas para evaluar los patrones de desarrollo futuro y entender los impactos de seguir expandiendo la ciudad sin estrategias de crecimiento inteligente.

Aproximación Se proyectó el crecimiento urbano en tres escenarios para dos horizontes temporales. La simulación se apoyó con los registros históricos de crecimiento, de manera de proyectar las tendencias.

Cliente: Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo Fecha: 2015 Ubicación: San José, Costa Rica

Se evaluó el cambio en los usos de suelo desde 1980 al presente por medio de análisis de percepción remota. Además, se identificó la distribución de distintas densidades de desarrollo urbano.

Se integraron restricciones físicas y normativas, tales como áreas de amenazas, zonas de recarga de acuíferos, áreas naturales protegidas y límites urbanos.

Se trabajó con autoridades locales para establecer mecanismos estratégicos de crecimiento inteligente y guiar el crecimiento regional.

Palabras Clave Crecimiento urbano, desarrollo residencial, crecimiento inteligente

Áreas de Práctica

Sustentabilidad Urbana 28 | Fuente: Google Maps

Cambio Climático, Riesgo y Resiliencia


Figura 16. Comparación de escenarios de crecimiento urbano al 2050. Se indica el área proyectada segun tipología de vivienda

Desarrollo de Escenarios y Evaluación

Valor Agregado para el Cliente

Las proyecciones de desarrollo para la GAM de San José consideraron una variedad de tipologías edificatorias y densidades; desde viviendas unifamiliares y unidades de lujo, hasta vivienda multi-familiares en altura y asentamientos informales. El análisis permitió, en los distintos escenarios, entender dónde y de qué forma la ciudad podría crecer. El escenario de crecimiento inteligente permitió establecer directrices basadas en mayores densidades edificatorias, desarrollo orientado al tránsito (TOD), protección de zonas de valor ambiental y prohibición de desarrollo en zonas de riesgo de amenazas, como deslizamientos de tierra e inundaciones.

Este trabajo es parte de un proyecto mayor de GeoAdaptive que involucró la evaluación vulnerabilidades y riesgo ante diferentes amenazas como inundación, deslizamientos y sequía. Con los escenarios de crecimiento urbano se evaluó el riesgo humano y económico en distintas áreas de desarrollo futuro. El riesgo se comparó a través de los tres escenarios, transformándose en una herramienta poderosa para la toma de decisión y la construcción de políticas de desarrollo sustentable.

Manejando la Incertidumbre frente a los Desafíos Globales | 29


Desarrollo y Planificación Económica

Resumen

Iniciativa Península de Osa y Golfito Exploración de Escenarios para un Futuro Sustentable

La región de Osa y Golfito en Costa Rica es considerada uno de los ecosistemas más ricos y diversos del mundo. Sin embargo, los asentamientos urbanos y comunidades siguen patrones de desarrollo que ponen en peligro estos valores naturales. No obstante, la presión en el entorno natural está dada por frágiles condiciones de desarrollo socioeconómico, las cuales deben ser abordadas en forma integral. Desacatan: el desarrollo sin coordinación, economías locales estancadas, poca diversificación económica, frágil estructura social e infraestructura y servicios públicos limitados. El proyecto involucró a las comunidades locales, ONGs y el sector privado para crear una visión de largo plazo que aborde los desafíos a nivel socioeconómico, a la vez que se protege el medio ambiente, el cual es un motor económico para la región.

Aproximación Se llevó a cabo un proceso participativo en la configuración de escenarios. Estos se basaron en cuatro componentes principales.

Cliente: Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment Fecha: 2014 Ubicación: Osa y Golfito, Costa Rica

Se analizaron los vacíos de datos e información y se generó una línea base de análisis para sistemas territoriales.

Palabras Clave

Se evaluaron casos de estudio similares para establecer rangos de comparación y mejores prácticas en torno a estrategias de planificación que integren conservación y desarrollo.

Se desarrollaron escenarios en forma participativa. Este espacio permitió visualizar conjuntamente las metas de largo plazo y objetivos consensuados, así como los actores e instituciones clave para la implementación de estrategias.

Se diseñaron acciones y estrategias de desarrollo sustentable para la región.

Comunidades locales, ONG, sector públicoprivado, sustentabilidad

Áreas de Práctica

Desarrollo y Planificación Económica 30 | Fuente: Lanting / Getty Images


Osa and Golfito | Proactive Scenario (2030)

Osa and Golfito | Rapid Growth Scenario (2030)

km

km 0

Inter-American Highway

Bathymetry

Figura 17. Escenario de crecimiento acelerado Secondary Roads Tertiary Roads Panama Osa and Golfito | Trend Scenario (2030)

50 m line bathymetry

100 m line bathymetry High: 0

Major towns Secondary Towns

Low: -2439.74

2

4

8

Inter-American Highway

Projected Changes

Secondary Roads Tertiary Roads

African Palm Urban development

Panama

Vacation homes

Major Towns

Secondary Towns

Indigenous Territory Protected Areas

Wetland

Protected Areas

100 m line bathymetry

2

4

8

Conservation/PES African Palm Urban development

High: 0

Desarrollo de Escenarios y Evaluación

Hotel development

0

Projected Changes

50 m line bathymetry Figura 18. Escenario proactivo

Conservation/PES

Agriculture

Indigenous Territory

Bathymetry

Low: -2439.74

Vacation homes Hotel development Agriculture Wetland

Region of Study

Region of Study Figure 20. Rapid Growth (2030) future growth distribution results

Osa & Golfito Initiative | December 2015

27

Se desarrollaron tres escenarios. La evaluación de estos Figure 21. Proactive (2030) future growth distribution results incorporó diversos factores, tales como la salud de ecosistemas, servicios e infraestructura December pública, uso 28 2015 | Osa & Golfito y Initiative cobertura de suelos. • • •

El escenario tendencial muestra el resultado de cómo sería la región siguiendo el patrón de desarrollo actual. El escenario de crecimiento acelerado incorpora un aumento poblacional mayor, junto con mayores demandas en infraestructura y servicios. El escenario proactivo considera la tendencia de crecimiento poblacional actual y se enfoca en estrategias de desarrollo urbano inteligente, provisión de infraestructura y servicios críticos y mecanismos de conservación.

km 0

Inter-American Highway Secondary Roads Tertiary Roads Panama

Bathymetry 50 m line bathymetry 100 m line bathymetry

4

8

Conservation/PES African Palm Urban development

High: 0

Major towns Secondary Towns

2

Projected Changes

Low: -2439.74

Indigenous Territory

Vacation homes Hotel development Wetland

Protected Areas Region of Study

Valor Agregado para el Cliente Se desarrolló una estrategia de desarrollo sustentable e inclusivo con los actores locales, delineando las necesidades de servicios, infraestructura y habitabilidad. El estudio se complementó con una evaluación de preferencias visuales, la cual permitió entender aquellas morfologías urbanoterritoriales preferidas por las comunidades de Osa y Golfito.

Figure 19. Trend future growth distribution results Figura 19.(2030)Escenario tendencial

26

December 2015 | Osa & Golfito Initiative

Manejando la Incertidumbre frente a los Desafíos Globales | 31


Desarrollo y Planificación Económica

Cabo del Este Evaluación de los Impactos Socioambientales Indirectos por el Desarrollo Turístico de Gran Escala

Informational Summary

Cliente: International Community Foundation (ICF) Fecha: 2015 Ubicación: Cabo del Este, BCS, México

East Cape

Palabras Clave

Desarrollo turístico, migración

Rapid evaluation of the indirect impacts caused by large-scale tourism developments

Resumen La región de Cabo del Este se ubica al sureste de la península de Baja California, bordeando el Mar de Cortez y la Sierra de la Laguna. Este paisaje primariamente rural alberga 9.805 habitantes, distribuidos en 217 asentamientos (INGEI, 2010). Este estudio se enfocó en la zona de Los Cabos y La Paz. Aquí, los ecosistemas terrestres y marinos poseen más de 100 especies endémicas; la zona es parte del Parque Nacional Cabo Pulmo, en donde existe el único arrecife de coral del océano Pacífico este. El parque y su área marina protegida han ayudado a mantener las pesquerías locales, las cuales son clave para la economía local relacionada al turismo y pesca. Los proyectos turísticos de gran escala pueden tener impactos en la economía, ambiente y el tejido social. La mayoría de los estudios tradicionales de planificación ambiental se enfocan en los impactos directos, dejando de lado los impactos indirectos en las estructuras sociales, dinámicas poblacionales, motores económicos y el paisaje regional. El objetivo principal de este estudio fue evaluar los impactos indirectos de desarrollos turísticos de gran escala en la región de Cabo del Este. La evaluación se enfoca en las tendencias de crecimiento regional y las presiones traídas por nuevos desarrollos turísticos. Se utilizó un horizonte temporal al año 2040 para alinear los resultados con los esfuerzos de planificación de largo plazo llevados a cabo por la municipalidad de Los Cabos

Aproximación La evaluación considera dos factores de cambio importantes: turismo de gran escala y migración; esta última se debe a la especulación en el mercado laboral traída por los potenciales desarrollos turísticos. Ambos factores tienen efectos en el crecimiento poblacional a nivel regional. La proyección de población fue extrapolada usando un incremento de 10.000 nuevas habitaciones de hotel al año 2030. Este estimado se apoyó en los proyectos de desarrollo turístico que fueron propuestos en los últimos 15 años. El crecimiento poblacional entre el 2030 y 2040 se basó en un crecimiento anual de 8.5%, la cual corresponde a la municipalidad de los Cabos. En base al crecimiento proyectado, se evaluó la demanda y costos para: servicios educativos y salud, suelo urbanizable e infraestructura de agua potable y recolección y tratamiento de residuos sólidos. Photo: Ralph Hopkins.

Áreas de Práctica Population Increase

Project Objective

Large-scale tourism projects can have an effect upon the economy, the environment and the social composition of a region. The required traditional environmental and planning assessments tend to focus on the direct impacts of projects, without considering the indirect impacts on the social structure, population dynamics, Desarrollo y Planificación economic drivers or regional landscape. The primary objective Económica of this rapid assessment is to evaluate the indirect impacts of large-scale tourism developments in the East Cape region. The assessment focuses on regional development growth trends and 32 | the associated regional growth pressures. A time horizon of 2040 was used for the evaluation in order to best align the results with Fuente: Google Maps the strategic visioning and planning efforts currently underway by

10,000 hotel rooms

2015

Annual growth rate (8.5%)

2030

2040

Figura 20. Tendencia de crecimiento poblacional al 2040effect upon the employment speculation), both which have a direct

regional population growth. A set of assumptions, based on current trends previously observed in the region, were used as a starting point for this analysis. The population projection was extrapolated


and tourism development in other similar sized Mexican cities employment of large tourism projects. The final multipliers applied (SECTUR, 2007; Arroyo y Gutiérrez, 2007). Through this analysis to this evaluation (hotel rooms: population increase) are 1:15 Changes in migration patterns was evaluated through a series of of direct, indirect and informal jobs, in addition to the family two population multipliers were identified, which represent the and 1:12, 1:16 was also considered as it represents the current case studies that explored the relationship between employment members who often accompany workers attracted by speculative number of workers needed to support a hotel operation (based on population multiplier for Los Cabos (IMPLAN-Los Cabos, 2015). and tourism development in other similar sized Mexican cities employment of large tourism projects. The final multipliers applied the number of hotel rooms). These figures represent the number Changes migration was evaluated throughthis a series of of indirect and informal in addition to the (SECTUR, in2007; Arroyopatterns y Gutiérrez, 2007). Through analysis to direct, this evaluation (hotel rooms: jobs, population increase) arefamily 1:15 case studies thatmultipliers explored the relationship employment two population were identified,between which represent the

members accompany workers by the speculative and 1:12, who 1:16 often was also considered as itattracted represents current employment of large tourism projects. The final multipliers applied population multiplier for Los Cabos (IMPLAN-Los Cabos, 2015). (SECTUR, 2007; Arroyo y Gutiérrez, 2007). represent Through this analysis to this evaluation (hotel rooms: population increase) are 1:15 the number of hotel rooms). These figures the number Demand forconsidered Potable Water two population multipliers were identified, which represent and 1:12, 1:16 was also as it represents the current Solid Waste Generated Estimated Population Demandthe for Urbanizable (Additional) (Additional) Land on (Additional) number of workers needed(2040) to support a hotel operation (based population multiplier (Additional) for Los Cabos (IMPLAN-Los Cabos, 2015). Population (Million cubic meters per year) the number of hotel rooms). These figures represent the number Multiplier Demand for Potable Water Solid Waste Generated Estimated Population Demand for Urbanizable (Additional) (Additional) (2040) (Additional) Land (Additional) Population (Million cubic meters per year) (EastMultiplier Cape-Current) (9,805 pop) (1,155 ha) (13.4 Mm3Water /year) ton/day) Demand for Potable Solid Waste (11 Generated Estimated Population Demand for Urbanizable of direct, indirect and informal jobs, in addition to the family 3 (Additional) (Additional) (2040) (Additional) Land (Additional) /year 398 ton/day 1:16 351,878 pop 19,940 ha 19.27 Mm Population members who often accompany workers attracted by speculative (Million cubic meters per year) 3 Mm3/year Multiplier 1:15 329,886 pop 18,694 ha 18.06 373 (East Cape-Current) pop) (13.4 Mm /year) (11 ton/day)ton/day employment of large tourism(9,805 projects. The final multipliers (1,155 appliedha) 3 3 to this 1:16 evaluation (hotel rooms: population increase) are 1:15 1:12 263,909 pop 14,955 Mm /year 298 ton/day 351,878 pop 19,940 ha ha 19.2714.45 Mm /year 398 ton/day and 1:12, 1:16 was also considered as it represents the 18,694 currentha 3 1:15 329,886 pop 18.06 Mm 373 ton/day 3 /year Figura 21. Impactos indirectos de desarrollos futuros (East Cape-Current) pop) (1,155 ha) (13.4 Mm /year) (11 ton/day) population multiplier for Los (9,805 Cabos (IMPLAN-Los Cabos, 2015). 1:12 Cost per Resident: 263,909 pop pop 14,955 ha ha 14.45 Mm Mm33/year 298 Estimated 1:16 351,878 19,940 19.27 /year 398 ton/day ton/day

Indirect Impacts and tourism development in support other similar Mexican cities number of workers needed to a hotelsized operation (based on Indirect Impacts Indirect Impacts

hrough a series of ween employment ed Mexican cities ough this analysis ich represent the eration (based on esent the number

1:15

329,886 pop

18,694 ha

Estimated Cost perEduction: Resident: 1:12 263,909 pop Demand for Potable Water Demand for Urbanizable Eduction: (Additional) Land (Additional) Estimated Cost per Resident:

Medical (Million cubic meters per year)

MXN $9,500 14,955 ha

Solid Waste MXNGenerated $9,500 (Additional)

Attention: MXN $2,100

Eduction: Medical Attention: MXN MXN $9,500 $2,100 (1,155 ha)

(13.4 Mm3/year)

19,940 ha 18,694 ha

3 Medical Attention: MXN $2,100 19.27 Mm /year water, ton/day (Potable electricity,398 road network, sewer) 3 Infrastructure: MXN $84,700 18.06 Mm /year 373 ton/day

14,955 ha

14.45 Mm3/year

Infrastructure:

MXN $84,700

network, sewer)

urce: SEDESOL, 2012)

Cabo Pulmo

on Increase (2040)

se Annual Recharge

oncessions

ions

Discharge

laboration with:

Infrastructure:

MXN $84,700

(Source: SEDESOL, 2012) (Potable water, electricity, road network, sewer)

aquifers

Use Annual Average Recharge Population growth will increase theHotel pressure placed upon water resources, for demand will exceed within Population Increase (2040)the Averagesupply Annual Recharge Hotel Concessions next 15-21 years (Santiago Aquifer). Additional pressure will Concessions Hotel Use also be experienced in the “service” sector, as they hold the Concessions greatest number of existing concessions. Concessions Average Annual Recharge

Rapid2015 development

Natural Discharge

Natural Discharge Hotel Concessions

concentrated in easily developable areas, 2015of established town centers and outside along mainREPDA, roadways Concessions (Source: 2015) Projected Use REPDA, 2015) Projected Use will create an unmanageable demand for (Source: public services. Natural Discharge

3 or without 3 regional planning efforts can cause impacts consideration 14.45 Mmof /year 298 ton/day Los cambios en los on patrones migratorios fueron evaluados on the population, the surrounding systems and • Tourism development realized outside natural or without considerando una serie de estudios que exploraban la effect the quality of life of current residents, in turn generating of regional planning efforts can cause impacts Keyconsideration Findings relación entre on empleo yfor turismo en ciudades mexicanas great economic expenses government agencies. on the population, the surrounding natural systems and dethe tamaño similar. Este análisis permitió identificar dos • Tourism development realized outside or generating without effect quality of life of current residents, in turn •consideration Population growth will increase the pressure placed upon multiplicadores de for población, los cuales el regional planning efforts can causerepresentan impacts great economicofexpenses government agencies. water resources, will natural exceed supply within the on the population, on for the demand surrounding systems número de trabajadores necesarios para una and operación • Population growth will(Santiago increase the pressure placed upon next years Aquifer). Additional pressure will effect the 15-21 quality of life ofen current residents, in turn generating turística (basado el número de habitaciones). Estas water resources, for demand will“service” exceedagencies. supply also be experienced in government the sector, within as theythehold the great economic expenses for laAquifer). cantidad de trabajos e nextcifras 15-21 representan years (Santiago Additional pressure directos will greatest number of existing concessions. trabajos informales y el número deupon miembros • Population growth will increase thesector, pressure placed alsoindirectos, be experienced in the “service” as they hold the familiares que acompañan los trabajadores atraídos por resources, demand will aexceed supplydevelopable within the areas, greatest number offorexisting concessions. •water Rapid development concentrated in easily especulación en elAquifer). mercado turístico. El multiplicador nextla 15-21 years (Santiago Additional pressure will outside of established town centers and along main roadways bedevelopment experienced in thede “service” sector, as theypoblacional) the final (# habitaciones hotel :easily incremento son • also Rapid concentrated indemand developable areas, will create an unmanageable for publichold services. greatest number of existing outside town concessions. centers and along mainadicional roadwaysde 1:16, 1:15of y established 1:12. Se consideró un multiplicador will create anrepresentaba unmanageablelademand foractual public de services. relación ciudad de Los • ya Theque total estimated cost to expand healthla and education • Rapid development concentrated in easily developable areas, Cabos. services, in addition to basic infrastructure will have to be

outside of established towntocenters andhealth along main roadways The total estimated cost expand and education financed by municipal (roads, lighting, and will create unmanageable forstreet public services. services, inanaddition to basicdemand infrastructure will have towater be sewer), (health,(roads, education, financed bystate municipal streetelectricity, lighting, sewer) water and and federal agencies (health). • The total estimated cost to expand health andand education sewer), (health, education, electricity, sewer) • state Se otorgaron herramientas para medir elfederal impacto del services, (health). in addition to basic infrastructure will have to be agencies desarrollo turístico sin planificación. Permitió entender financed by municipal (roads, street lighting, water and los impactos en laPopulation población, sistemas naturales, Population Estimated - los Total Estimated Cost la sewer), state (health, education, electricity, sewer) and federal calidad de vida de los habitantes y los costos futuros (health/education) (MXN) Multiplier Additional (2040) Population Estimated Population Total Estimated Cost agencies (health). Multiplier Additional (2040)popde (health/education) contingentes) las entidades públicas. 1:16(pasivos 351,878 $1.8(MXN) billions •

Valor Agregado para el Cliente

1:16 351,878 pop $1.8 billions • 1:15La Estimated proyección de crecimiento poblacional permitió 329,886 pop $1.7 Cost billions Population Population Total Estimated 1:15 329,886 pop $1.7 billions dilucidar la demanda futura de agua y(MXN) la presión en Multiplier Additional (2040)pop (health/education) 1:12 263,909 $1.3 billions los acuíferos locales, cuya capacidad de suministro 1:12 263,909 $1.3 billions billions 1:16 351,878 pop pop $1.8

podría verse superada en los próximos 15-21 años,

In collaboration with: by: billions Work developed by: 1:15 329,886 pop Sponsored$1.7 2015 • Work Thedeveloped total estimated cost to expand health and education en caso de no tomar medidas In collaboration with: Sponsored by: en torno al crecimiento. by: (Source: REPDA, 2015) 1:12 263,909 pop $1.3 billions(que incluye Projectedto Usebasic infrastructure will have to be services, in addition Particularmente, el sector “servicios” financed by municipal (roads, street lighting, water and turismo) es el que se verá mayormente afectado, dado Figura 23. Demanda de agua potable sewer), state by: (health, education, electricity, sewer) andwith: federal In collaboration Sponsored by: Work developed que poseen la mayor cantidad de concesiones en el agencies (health). International Comunity Foundation GeoAdaptive, LLC IMPLAN - Los Cabos acuífero. International Comunity Foundation GeoAdaptive, LLC IMPLAN - Los Cabos st http://www.icfdn.org/ Floor 250Summer SummerStreet, Street,1st1Floor Paseo Cabos las Velas http://www.icfdn.org/ 250 Paseo Los Los Cabos s/n, s/n, PlazaPlaza las Velas • Los escenarios permitieron visualizar la demanda Boston, MA, USA Local 1 San José del Cabo B.C.S. Cp. 23406. México Boston, MA, USA Local 1 San José del Cabo B.C.S. Cp. 23406. México Population +1 617 Estimated Population Total Estimated 2278885 8885 52Cost 624 13004 77 04 de tierra urbanizable y los costos potenciales en +1 617 227 +IMPLAN 52+ 624 International Comunity Foundation LLC (2040) -130 Los 77 Cabos Multiplier GeoAdaptive, Additional (health/education) (MXN) www.geoadaptive.com www.implanloscabos.mx www.geoadaptive.com www.implanloscabos.mx st servicios en estas nuevas zonas de 250 Summer Street, 1 Floor Paseo Los Cabos s/n, Plaza las Velas la provisión de http://www.icfdn.org/ 1:16 Boston, MA, 351,878 $1.8 Local billions desarrollo. USA pop 1 San José del Cabo B.C.S. Cp. 23406. México De esta forma, las autoridades pudieron

1:15

urce: REPDA, 2015)

298(Source: ton/day SEDESOL, 2012)

Demand forestimados Potable de Water: Santiago Figura 22. Costos servicios socialesand e Cabo Pulmo • Tourism development realizedaquifers outside or without infraestructuras por cada nuevo residente Demand for Potable Water: Santiago and Cabo Pulmo (Source: SEDESOL, 2012) consideration of regional planning efforts can cause impacts aquifers natural systems and on the population, on the surrounding Population Increase (2040) effect the quality of life of current residents, in turn generating Population Increase (2040) Demand for Potable Water: Santiago and Cabo great economic expenses for governmentHotel agencies. Use Pulmo Millions of Millions cubic meters of cubic meters yearmeters per year Millions ofper cubic per year

MXN $2,100

MXN $84,700

(Potable water, electricity, road network, sewer)

Key Findings

MXN $9,500

(11 ton/day)

KeyDesarrollo Findings de Escenarios y Evaluación 18.06 development Mm /year ton/day Tourism realized373outside Key• Findings

1:12

+1 617 227329,886 8885 pop www.geoadaptive.com

263,909 pop

52 624 130 77 04 $1.7 +billions

Figura 24. Costo estimado total para salud y educación, Sponsored considerando la población al año 2040 by:

IMPLAN - Los Cabos Paseo Los Cabos s/n, Plaza las Velas Local 1 San José del Cabo B.C.S. Cp. 23406. México + 52 624 130 77 04 www.implanloscabos.mx

establecer patrones de desarrollo compacto y asociado a la infraestructura existente y planificada.

www.implanloscabos.mx

$1.3 billions

International Comunity Foundation http://www.icfdn.org/

Uno de los productos de mayor utilidad fue el dimensionamiento de los costos fiscales para servicios educacionales, de salud e infraestructura básica (caminos, iluminación, agua y alcantarillado). De esta forma, se tomaron medidas para programar un crecimiento inteligente y a la par con mecanismos financieros para las inversiones necesarias. Manejando la Incertidumbre frente a los Desafíos Globales | 33


Para más información contactar a:

JUAN CARLOS VARGAS M. Gerente para EE. UU, México y Centro América jcvargas@geoadaptive.com; +1 617 227 8885 Linkedin: Juan Carlos Vargas - Twitter: @Geo_jcvargas

FLAVIO SCIARAFFIA MÁRQUEZ Gerente para Chile y América del Sur fsciaraffia@geoadaptive.com; +56 9 92334237 Linkedin: Flavio Sciaraffia - Twitter: @flaviossm

100 Franklin St. Suite 201 Boston, MA 02210. USA phone +1 617 227 8885

Santa Beatriz 170, Of. 1102 7500515 Providencia, RM, Chile phone +56 992334237

www.geoadaptive.com

info@geoadaptive.com

GeoAdaptive LLC @GeoAdaptive

Este documento fue producido como una muestra del trabajo de GeoAdaptive y no debe reproducirse. Se prohíbe el uso de imágenes o información contenida en el mismo, excepto con el permiso explícito y por escrito de GeoAdaptive. Algunos de los trabajos pueden estar en curso y la información respecto de estos no debe considerarse como resultados finales u oficiales. Cualquier pregunta o inquietud acerca del contenido de este documento, debe dirigirse a GeoAdaptive.

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Innovación para abordar las incertidumbres de los grandes desafíos globales

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