TRADE & COMMODITIES
Rising acreage for corn and soyabeans improves feedstuffs outlook in 2023/24
www.drycargomag.com
Maria Cappuccio The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predict global growth at 3% in both 2023 and 2024, the slowdown being concentrated in advanced economies, where growth will fall this year and 1.4% next year. The euro area, still reeling from last year’s sharp spike in gas prices caused by the war, is set to decelerate sharply. By contrast, growth in emerging markets and developing economies is still expected to pick-up with year-on-year growth to 4.1% this year and next. The average, masks
significant differences between countries, emerging and developing, Asia growing strongly at 5.3% this year, while many commodity producers will suffer from a decline in export revenues. The IMF confirms that while stronger growth, lower inflation and some adverse risks have moderated, the balance remains tilted to the downside. Global crop prices are expected to fall in 2023/24 as global supply improves on rising acreage for coarse grains and
oilseeds with record output for corn and soybeans. Global wheat supply is forecast slightly lower in 2023/24. Increasing uncertainty around Black Sea exports following Russia's withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative, means global grain and oilseed prices are expected to experience further volatility in 2023/24.
DROUGHT CURBS WHEAT YIELDS IN NORTH AMERICA The global wheat and coarse grain harvests
SEPTEMBER 2023
GLOBAL FEEDSTUFFS-PRODUCTION, USE, FEED & STOCKS 2022/23-2023/24 (MT)
DCi 6
Wheat Coarse grains Total grains Oilseeds
Prod 22/23 791 1,446 2,237 630
Prod 23/24 787 1,497 2,284 661
Use 22/23 796 1,456 2,252 *521
Use 23/24 796 1,485 2,281 *541
Feed 22/23 156 892 1,048 **348
Source: IGC/USDA — Prod major feedstuffs-mainly harvested Jul-Dec/Local Marketing years *Oilseed crush; **Oil meals feed use-excludes fishmeal
Feed 23/24 158 913 1,071 **357
Trade 22/23 215 221 436 201
Trade 23/24 210 234 444 196
Stocks 22/23 267 328 595 122
Stocks 23/24 259 340 599 136