Africa Briefing - January - Feburary 2024 by africabriefing

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January-February 2024

Vol.7 No.30

Liberia Boakai’s Rescue Mission

term extensions

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Economy: Navigating East Africa 30

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PUBLISHER’S NOTE

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Charting Liberia's course: President Joseph Boakai's vision for unity, development and international engagement

Publisher Jon Offei-Ansah Editor Desmond Davies

N an enlightening pre-inauguration interview with Africa Briefing, President Joseph Boakai of Liberia shared his insights on a range of critical issues, including his victory, plans for reconciliation, combating corruption, bolstering education, tackling unemployment, and the pivotal role of women in leadership. Boakai's vision reveals a leader guided by core values of integrity, honesty, humility, compassion, and selfless service, providing a roadmap for Liberia's path towards change and development. Boakai's calm and resolute demeanour reflects a deep understanding of Liberia's political landscape. When asked about the outcome of the presidential election and former President Weah's gracious concession, Boakai expressed no surprise, attributing the result to the people's desire for change. His commitment to transparency and dedication to building a stronger, united nation sets a positive tone for his presidency.

PUBLISHER’S NOTEinto the factors that contributed to Boakai's success, The discussion delves

Publisher

highlighting his focus on integrity, the fight against corruption, and his extensive

Jon Offei-Ansah Africa bucks experience. In aglobal nation that has grappled with politically-motivated violence, Editor economic Boakai sees trend the peaceful transition as a significant step towards consolidating

Desmond Davies

a democratic culture. He emphasises the importance of addressing factional n 2018, six of the 10 fastest-growing Deputy Editor economies in the world were differences through a incommitment to the public good, minimising tensions, and Africa, according to the World Bank, Angela Cobbinah promoting healthy ideological debates. with Ghana leading the pack. With

GDP growth for the continent projected to Contributing Editor accelerate to four per cent induring 2019 and the 4.1 victory celebrations, where a car crashed into A tragic incident Stephen Williams per cent in 2020, Africa’s economic growth supporters, killing three brought lightIndex Boakai's compassionate story continues apace. Meanwhile, the people, World Bank’s 2019 Doingto Business Director, Special Projects reveals that five of the 10 most-improved countries are in Africa, and one-third of leadership. He condemned the incident, cancelled celebrations, and ensured his all reforms recorded globally were in sub-Saharan Africa. Michael Orji

supporters remained restrained. Theis that subsequent What makes the story more impressive and heartening the growth arrest and charging of the driver Contributors –with projected to be broad-based – is beinghis achieved in a challengingto global murder underscore commitment justice. environment, bucking the trend. Justice Lee Adoboe Corruption a Dr. pervasive issueChief in Economist Liberia,at and a Iloegbunam In the Cover Story remains of this edition, Hippolyte Fofack, the Boakai outlinesChuks African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank), analyses the factors underpinning this Joseph Kayira comprehensive combat it.inDrawing onanalysis: the need for political will, he intends performance. Two factors,plan in my to opinion, stand out Dr. Hippolyte’s Zachary Ochieng trade between Africa and China andanti-graft the intra-African cross-borderprosecute investment andoffenders transparently, to strengthen existing agencies, and Olu Ojewale infrastructure development. conduct an audit of the previous government. Boakai's emphasis on personal

Oladipo Okubanjo Much has been said and written about China’s ever-deepening economic foray into Africa, especially by Western analystswith and commentators who have been sounding accountability, starting his administration, sends a strong messageCorinne about Soar the alarm bells about re-colonisation of Africa, this time by the Chinese. But empirical Designer importance of ethical evidence paints a different picture.behaviour in public service.

Gloria Ansah Despite the decelerating global growth environment, trade between Africa and The interview touches upon issues such as mining deals, education, youth China increased by 14.5 per cent in the first three quarters of 2018, surpassing Country Representatives the growth rate of world trade (11.6 per cent), reflecting the deepening economic unemployment, and a bloated civil service. Boakai discusses plans to review dependency between the two major trading partners. Southsector, Africa dubious mining deals, improve education quality, create jobs in the private

Empirical evidence shows that China’s domestic investment has become highly Edward Walter Byerley linked economic expansion in Africa. posed A one percentage increase civil service. Top and with address the challenges by anpoint oversized HisDog commitment Media, 5 Ascot Knights in China’s domestic investment growth is associated with an average of 0.6 47to Grand National Boulevard to infrastructure development, especially in rural areas, aims bridge gaps and Royal Ascot, percentage point increase in overall African exports. And, the expected economic Milnerton 7441, South Africa development and trade impact of expanding Chinese investment on resource-rich stimulate economic growth. Tel: +27 (0) 21 555 0096 African countries, especially oil-exporting countries, is even more important.

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The resilience of African extends economies can also be attributed to growing intra-African Boakai's vision beyond national borders, emphasising the importance of Email: ed@topdog-media.net cross-border investment and infrastructure development. A combination of the strengthening tiesthewith African nations the international community. two factors is accelerating processother of structural transformation in a and continent Ghana His where industrial output and services account for a growing share of GDP. African Nanawith Asiama Bekoe commitment to climate change and environmental sustainability aligns global corporations and industrialists which are expanding their industrial footprint across Kingdom Concept Co. Africa and globally are leading Liberia's the diversification from agriculture intoin higher efforts, recognising unique position the fight against climate change. Tel: +233 243 393 943 / +233 303 967 470 value goods in manufacturing and service sectors. These industrial champions kingsconceptsltd@gmail.com are carrying out transcontinental operations, with investment holdings around the The interview concludes with a focus on women's empowerment, drawing attention globe, with a strong presence in Europe and Pacific Asia, together account for more Nigeria than 75 per cent of historical their combinedrole activities Africa. women in leadership. Boakai pledges to to Liberia's in outside promoting

Taiwo Adedoyin

Aincrease survey of 30women's leading emerging African corporations with global footprints and and beyond, MV Noble, Press House, 3rd Floor representation in his administration acknowledging combined revenue of more than $118 billion shows that they are active in several Road, Ogba, Ikeja, Lagos the importance of their contribution to national development. 27 Acme industries, including manufacturing (e.g., Dangote Industries), basic materials, Tel: +234 806 291 7100 telecommunications (e.g., Econet, Safaricom), finance (e.g., Ecobank) and oil and gas. In addition to mitigating risks highly correlatedpresents with African aeconomies, President Joseph Boakai's interview compelling vision taiadedoyin52@gmail.com for Liberia's these emerging African global corporations are accelerating the diversification of Kenya As future—a future builttheon principles oftointegrity, accountability, and inclusivity. sources of growth and reducing exposure of countries adverse commodity Naima Farah terms of trade.

he assumes office, his leadership style, grounded in personal values, Room promises 22, 2nd FloortoWest Wing steer Liberia towards a more prosperous and united future. Royal Square, Ngong Road, Nairobi

This makes me very bullish about Africa!

Tel: +254 729 381 561 naimafarah_m@yahoo.com

Africa Briefing Ltd 2 Redruth Close, London N22 8RN United Kingdom Tel: +44 (0) 208 888 6693 publisher@africabriefing.org

Contributing Editors Stephen Williams Prof. Toyin Falola Tikum Mbah Azonga Contributors Justice Lee Adoboe Chief Chuks Iloegbunam Joseph Kayira Zachary Ochieng Olu Ojewale Oladipo Okubanjo Corinne Soar Kennedy Olilo Gorata Chepete Designer Simon Blemadzie Country Representatives South Africa Edward Walter Byerley Top Dog Media, 5 Ascot Knights 47 Grand National Boulevard Royal Ascot, Milnerton 7441, South Africa Tel: +27 (0) 21 555 0096 Cell: +27 (0) 81 331 4887 Email: ed@topdog-media.net Ghana Nana Asiama Bekoe Kingdom Concept Co. Tel: +233 243 393 943 / +233 303 967 470 kingsconceptsltd@gmail.com Nigeria Nnenna Ogbu #4 Babatunde Oduse crescent Isheri Olowora - Isheri Berger, Lagos Tel: +234 803 670 4879 getnnenna.ogbu@gmail.com Kenya Patrick Mwangi Aquarius Media Ltd, PO Box 10668-11000 Nairobi, Kenya Tel: 0720 391 546/0773 35 41 Email: mwangi@aquariusmedia.co.ke ©Africa Briefing Ltd 2 Redruth Close, London N22 8RN United Kingdom Tel: +44 (0) 208 888 6693 publisher@africabriefing.org

Contents LEADER

Double standards in the exercise of universal jurisdiction

Vol.7 No.30 January-February 2024

COMMENT

Sierra Leone must not be pushed to the brink – again

COVER STORY

Exclusive interview with Liberia's President Joseph Boakai: steering change, reconciliation, and development

IN an insightful pre-inauguration interview with Africa Briefing, President Joseph Boakai discussed his victory, plans for reconciliation, addressing corruption, enhancing education, tackling unemployment, and the crucial role of women in leadership. Boakai shares personal values that shaped his journey from a challenging past, emphasising integrity, honesty, humility, compassion, and selfless service as guiding principles for his presidency. As Liberia anticipates a new era, Boakai pledges to lead with transparency and dedication to building a stronger, united nation

ANALYSIS

Why presidential term extensions continue to fester

The African Union has the institutional frameworks to address the matter of presidents prolonging their stay in power, but the political will to change this is not forthcoming because the pan-African organisation currently harbours several leaders who have already done so, argues Michael Amoah

BUSINESS & ECONOMY

Unravelling Ghana's debt dilemma: navigating a complex landscape

Ghana's Finance Ministry has sought to hoist recent successes in its IMF program review and negotiations with bilateral creditors in front of international audiences, but it has failed to lift domestic spirits amid rising living costs and governance concerns. In this in-depth analysis, Bright Simons explores the intricate economic, political, and geopolitical dynamics shaping Ghana's economic recovery effort. As the nation treads through the IMF programme, key challenges, including the role of the West and China and the efficacy of the Common Framework, come to the forefront, raising questions about the future of debt resolutions in Africa

TECHNOLOGY

Unleashing economic potential through AI-powered trade

Ojo Emmanuel Ademola discusses the impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on trade in Africa, from market analysis to supply chain optimisation and financial services, and how strategic investments, international partnerships, and supportive policies can harness AI's potential for economic growth.

ARTS

From positive to negative

The historic studio of the internationally renowned London-based Ghanaian photographer James Barnor has been all but forgotten, Angela Cobbinah discovers during a recent visit to Ghana

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LEADER

Double standards in the exercise of universal jurisdiction R

ECENTLY, a High Court in Finland threw out the case of war crimes against Gibril Massaquoi, a former member of the rebel Revolutionary United Front in Sierra Leone. Ironically, he had assisted the Special Court of Sierra Leone in bringing to justice those who were guilty of committing war crimes during the country’s civil war from 1991 to 2002. As a result, he was relocated to Finland for his own safety. But in March 2020, he was arrested by Finnish police and charged with crimes including “homicide, sexual violence and the recruitment and use of child soldiers”. This was on the say-so of a Genevabased organisation, Civitas Maxima, which was “founded on the conviction that victims of international crimes must hold the keys to their own quest for justice”. This is all well and good. But Civitas Maxima has not covered itself in glory by using dubious tactics to further its aims. It appears that it has been working with people who have their own personal agenda: to settle scores that do not have anything to do seeking justice for victims. Indeed, victims have been exploited by Civitas Maxima and its dubious allies. In the end, these victims have not had the pleasure of seeing justice served. It has now transpired that so-called witnesses were coached to say what Civitas Maxima and its allies want. This is why Massaquoi’s case was thrown out of court in Finland. What’s Civitas Maxima’s modus operandi? It first makes allegations of war crimes against targeted personalities, and then uses universal jurisdiction to get the target arrested, even without clear-cut evidence. This was what happened to Agnes Taylor in 2017. The former wife of Liberian President Charles Taylor, who is serving a 50-year prison sentence in the UK, having been found guilty of crimes committed in Sierra Leone during its civil war, she was a university lecturer in London when she was arrested by the War Crimes Team of the Metropolitan Police 6

under universal jurisdiction. It would have made sense if there was actual evidence to arrest Taylor. But it was after she was detained that the War Crimes Team began its investigation, searching for evidence to nail Taylor. Police officers from London flew back and forth to Liberia to collect evidence, which was not forthcoming because most of the witnesses turned out to be just parroting what they had been told to say. When the mater eventually got to court, a judge threw out the case for lack of evidence. But that was on December 6, 2019. So, for over two-and-a-half years she was incarcerated in a maximum security prison without charge. Not surprisingly she has instituted legal action against Civitas Maxima’s Director, Alain Werner, and others. What happens recently is rather intriguing. In the wake of the war in Gaza, there have been claims of war crimes being bandied around. The same War Crimes Team then put up posters appealing for witnesses to come forward with evidence of such crimes. Former British Conservative Prime Minister Boris Johnson took umbrage at this. He said that putting up such posters was tantamount to a “worrying politicisation” of the Metropolitan Police. But it was under a Conservative

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organisation, has not taken kindly to this, and there is talk of reining in overexuberant human rights groups that do not play by the book. One US newspaper, commenting on the Massaquoi case, noted: “That the case against Massaquoi got this far – especially after he had dedicated years to help bring justice to Sierra Leone, an effort that ultimately led to the arrest, trial, and imprisonment of former Liberian President Charles Taylor – is a travesty of justice. In the local level, it smacks of revenge. “More broadly, it would not have been possible absent the dishonest behaviour of a self-described human rights organisation. Within the State Department, there should be some serious soul searching.” Michael Rubin, a Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, noted: “Human rights advocacy sounds lofty, but in practice, political agendas and outright greed now threaten an entire industry at a time when objective human rights monitoring has never been more important.” Indeed, African human rights organisations must no longer be used by European rights bodies that have ulterior motives. There is no gainsaying that rights monitoring is paramount in Africa today, and there is a need to strengthen the capacity of these organisations on the

Civitas Maxima has muddied the waters in the search for international justice

government that Agnes Taylor was arrested and detained without charge. Clearly a case of the legal system being used for political purposes. Cleary a case of double standards in the exercise of universal jurisdiction. Civitas Maxima has muddied the waters in the search for international justice. The US, which has been providing millions of dollars in funding for the

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continent, which know the terrain a lot better than outsiders. Responsibility and transparency will bolster the credibility of African human rights organisations. At the same time, there must not be double standards in dealing with universal jurisdiction because this will defeat the whole purpose of international justice, to which African countries are always being forced to adhere to by the West. AB

AFRICA BRIEFING JANUARY - FEBRUARY 2024

COMMENT

Sierra Leone must not be pushed to the brink – again T

HE last five years have been quite disruptive for President Julius Maada Bio who first came to power in Sierra Leone 2018. It has not been plain sailing at all. Each year since 2019, the country has had to deal with violent uprisings that were increasing in intensity year after year, culminating in a full-blown attempt to overthrow the government in November 2023. Dissident soldiers gained access to the armoury at a military barracks in Freetown and proceeded to release inmates of a prison also in the capital, hoping that they would join the uprising. They did not, as most of them disappeared or returned to jail while the coast was clear. When the rumblings began, Bio was in Equatorial Guinea. But he must have got wind of things to come because I was told that he returned to Freetown early and was on hand to galvanise his troops to end the action of the mutinous troops and ex-soldiers.

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United Front in the interior. Momoh fled to Guinea, and the National Provisional Ruling Council (NPRC) grabbed control of the country. In 1996, Bio himself staged a palace coup and ousted Strasser. So, one wonders whether all of this has been lost on Bio and he has become complacent. He must not take his eye off the ball any more. This coup attempt could have been the direct result of the acrimony that erupted after the presidential and parliamentary elections in June. The defeated opposition All People’s Congress did not take kindly to losing to Bio’s Sierra Leone People’s Party. The acrimonious arguments continue today even as attempts are being made to reach some sort of reconciliation so that the country is not pushed to the brink – again. In the May-June 2023 edition of Africa Briefing, I did warn that the elections would be crunch time for the country and that citizens were

Bio must not take his eye off the ball any more

I believe that this was what saved Bio and his government. Had he not been around, I wonder whether those soldiers from the Daru Barracks in the Eastern Province would not have joined the mutineers.

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apprehensive about the outcome of the polls.

Opportunism could have encouraged regular troops to join their ex-colleagues and take over power. Indeed, Bio himself ought t know better. The coup of 1992, in which he and Captain Valentine Strasser overthrew President Joseph Momoh, was opportunistic.

In the mix is former President Ernest Koroma who was charged with treason after the November 26 coup attempt. One wonders why he should be involved in such a nefarious act. After all, he appeared to have been gaining international respectability, observing elections around Africa and hobnobbing with respected think tanks such as the Brenthurst Foundation in South Africa, of which he is a board member.

Strasser, Bio and other young Turks in the army were part of delegation sent to Freetown to appeal to Momoh to provide more weapons for the soldiers who were fighting against the rebel Revolutionary

In a statement after Koroma was summoned to police headquarters for questioning, Greg Mills, Director of the Foundation, condemned the action of the “unelected military assailants”

Desmond Davies and noted: “We know former President Koroma as a defender of democracy. He is notably one of the outstanding leaders who has relinquished power to opponents peacefully in the interests of entrenching democracy. He has led election-observation missions across the African continent with great distinction. We believe him to be a man of integrity and standing and find it hard to believe that he would be involved in or support the undermining of democracy in Sierra Leone.” The matter was made even more confusing when the Economic Community of West African States intervened, and asked the Bio government to allow Koroma to go Abuja for medical treatment. A Southern African international law professor friend of mine in the US told me: “I am not sure I agree with these experts' claim that some human rights treaties allow someone charged with a criminal offence to leave their country and seek asylum elsewhere while the case is being prosecuted. “Surely the default position in all criminal justice systems and jurisdictions is that accused persons should not be tried in absentia unless the accused is a fugitive and it is not possible to secure their physical presence in court through extradition or voluntary return? What country would charge someone with a high crime such as treason and then let them leave the jurisdiction to be tried in absentia? “But perhaps these experts are relying on a legal instrument in Sierra Leone that I am not familiar with. But this is not an allegation about shoplifting. It's treason.” To be honest, the constant political tension is becoming too much for ordinary Sierra Leoneans. Bio has to assure the people that he is really in control of things. Or else 2024 could well be another bloody year for the country, as Sierra Leoneans have experienced in each of the last AB five years.

AFRICA BRIEFING JANUARY - FEBRUARY 2024

COVER STORY

Navigating Liberia's crossroads: President Boakai's ‘Rescue Mission’ for national renewal Jon Offei-Ansah delves into the details of President Joseph Nyuma Boakai's first Annual Message to parliament, dissecting Liberia's economic hurdles, legislative focal points, infrastructure blueprints, and societal endeavours. He examines the president's suggested approaches, assessing the feasibility of the articulated rescue mission aimed at restoring public confidence and guiding the country into a promising era

RESIDENT Joseph Nyuma Boakai's first Annual Message (State of the Nation address) to parliament on January 29, 2023, serves as a pivotal document, outlining Liberia's pressing issues and his administration's vision for renewal. Boakai, who assumed office on January 22, candidly acknowledges Liberia's harsh realities — poverty, a drug epidemic, corruption, poor infrastructure, and an underperforming economy. The economic slowdown between 2022 and 2023, coupled with rising inflation and a substantial budget deficit, forms the backdrop of a nation in distress. The president advocates for a paradigm shift, moving away from primary commodity export reliance to a focus on value addition, with the private sector as the economic engine. The commitment to empowering Liberian entrepreneurship, leveraging ICT for job creation, and a bold initiative to train 10,000 young individuals in digital skills paints a picture of economic revitalisation.

with Liberia facing sanctions due to nonpayment of dues to the African Union and defaulting on a payment that hampers a critical disbursement. “As I am speaking, Liberia is under sanction for lack of payment of dues to the African Union and the African Development Bank. Also, a default in payment of about $650,000 to the European Investment Bank is preventing a disbursement of over $13 million for the Sanniquellie-Loguato road,” Boakai laments. The speech proposes a multifaceted approach, including the reintroduction of fiscal rules, travel ordinances, and rigorous

audits across government branches. These measures aim to rectify financial mismanagement, instil transparency, and pave the way for sustainable economic recovery. Boakai asserts: "Certainly, the rescue mission was a necessity for Liberia’s transformation." This acknowledgment underscores the gravity of the economic situation and the imperative need for transformative measures. The president's legislative agenda is a key aspect of the Rescue Mission. Reviewing and passing the Presidential Transition Act, establishing the Ministry of Local Government, and operationalising

Boakai emphasises: "In our quest to expand the economy, we will leverage Information Communication Technology (ICT) in creating jobs, especially for our youth." This reflects a recognition of the transformative power of technology in propelling economic growth and empowering the younger generation. Boakai exposes the alarming escalation of public debt to $2.21 billion, stressing its astronomical rise since December 2017. The consequences are palpable, 8

President Joseph Boakai delivers his first Annual Message

AFRICA BRIEFING JANUARY - FEBRUARY 2024

COVER STORY the Revenue Sharing Law demonstrate a commitment to efficient governance. The focus on aligning existing laws, passing the National Tourism Bill, and establishing the Office of the Ombudsman highlights a meticulous approach to legal frameworks. Boakai states: "The time for a mindset shift is now. We must be selfless in our service to bring about the change the Liberian people are yearning for." This call for a mindset shift underscores the need for a collective change in approach, emphasising the role of legislators in shaping a new era. The president prioritises road infrastructure development, acknowledging the inadequacy of the current network. Progress on primary roads and ambitious plans for new projects, including a fourlane road and bridge expansions, showcase a commitment to vital economic lifelines. Acknowledging the role of international partners in infrastructure development underscores a collaborative approach. "Honourable Legislators, I would like you to join me in extending sincere gratitude to our development partners..." This recognition highlights the collaborative nature of governance and the reliance on international support for national development. Recognising the disproportionality of the government workforce and its impact on the budget, Boakai advocates for a

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The President acknowledges education decline and pledges revival with infrastructure and resource investment

comprehensive approach to public health. The declaration of a public health emergency regarding substance abuse signals a proactive stance on a national security risk. In education, the president recognises the downward spiral of the educational system and vows to revitalise it through infrastructure investment and resource allocation. This commitment aligns with the broader goal of combating poverty through the provision of quality education.

The people, not the government, must come first

more efficient and effective civil service. This focus aims to alleviate budgetary pressures, ensuring that funds are directed towards public service delivery rather than being disproportionately consumed by the government payroll. Boakai asserts: "To make the government more effective and efficient, we must focus on public service deliveries. The people, not the government, must come first." This statement underscores the commitment to prioritising the needs of the citizens over bureaucratic complexities. Boakai highlights health and sanitation as cornerstones of development. Commitments to regular monitoring, regional diagnostic centres, and regulation of healthcare institutions reflect a

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Boakai states: "Education is not a privilege; it is a fundamental right. We cannot turn a blind eye to the fact that a significant portion of our population is struggling with a lack of access to quality education." This sentiment reinforces the recognition of education as a foundational right and a key driver of socio-economic development. Boakai's commitment to good governance, transparency, and accountability forms a critical part of the Rescue Mission. A call for legislative support to reform the justice system and combat corruption underscores the administration's determination to instil public trust in governance. Boakai stresses: "A government that is

accountable to its citizens is a government that can truly serve the needs of its people." This statement highlights the essential role of accountability in fostering a government that serves the interests of the people. Recognising the importance of Liberians in the Diaspora, Boakai proposes an annual Diaspora Conference on National Development. This initiative aims to harness the potential contributions of the Diaspora, fostering a sense of connection and shared responsibility in shaping Liberia's future. Boakai states: "I have therefore proposed an annual Diaspora Conference on National Development." This proposal reflects an acknowledgment of the Diaspora's significance and an intentional effort to integrate their perspectives into national development strategies. Boakai's Rescue Mission, as outlined in the Annual Message, paints a comprehensive vision for Liberia's renewal. The proposed strategies, ranging from economic reforms and legislative actions to social initiatives, highlight a commitment to rebuilding public trust. The success of this mission, however, hinges on collaborative efforts, effective implementation, and a collective shift towards selfless service for the betterment of Liberia and its people. As the nation navigates its crossroads, the hope is that these proposed measures will indeed pave the way for a brighter future. AB

AFRICA BRIEFING JANUARY - FEBRUARY 2024

COVER STORY

Exclusive interview with Liberia's President Joseph Boakai: steering change, reconciliation, and development IN an insightful pre-inauguration interview with Africa Briefing, President Joseph Boakai discussed his victory, plans for reconciliation, addressing corruption, enhancing education, tackling unemployment, and the crucial role of women in leadership. Boakai shares personal values that shaped his journey from a challenging past, emphasising integrity, honesty, humility, compassion, and selfless service as guiding principles for his presidency. As Liberia anticipates a new era, Boakai pledges to lead with transparency and dedication to building a stronger, united nation

FRICA BRIEFING (AB): Were you surprised by the outcome of the second round of the presidential election, whereby President Weah conceded defeat before the result was announced? Do you think you would have done the same? PRESIDENT BOAKAI (JB): No, I was not surprised by the runoff results, as it was a reaffirmation of what we had known for weeks before the election; that the people were resolved in their desire for change. As for President Weah’s concession, I thought it was gracious but not necessarily surprising because I knew he would do what was best in the country's interest – not to thwart the will of the people. I would do the same. As a matter of fact, until President Weah’s concession, I was the only candidate on record in Liberia, whether of a ruling party or the main opposition to concede to defeat as I did after the second round of voting in 2017.

corruption and experience, when compared to Weah’s record resonated most with voters. AB: What does the outcome of the election mean for the future of democratic politics in Liberia, given the politically-motivated violence that the country has witnessed over the years? JB: This was the fourth election we

have held since the return to democracy in 2006 following 14 years of war. And on January 22 this year, Liberia will make history with a back-to-back peaceful transition from one democratic government to another. This is significant progress because, until the 2018 transition, 1944 was the last time there was a democratic transition. 74 years! At this rate, I believe we are on the way to building

AB: What do you consider to be the most significant factor that contributed to your success? JB: It would be difficult to pinpoint only one significant factor because everything that could have gone wrong for the Weah campaign, including their poor record was evident and in clear view. However, our candidature and message based on integrity, the fight against 10

President Boakai arriving at the inauguration

AFRICA BRIEFING JANUARY - FEBRUARY 2024

COVER STORY

“As a presidential candidate, I made the provision of road connectivity across the country a major campaign promise in the last two elections because of the need to open up the country for development”

and consolidating a democratic culture including legitimate political settlement that will be the envy of the world and shed the recourse to violence for dispute settlement. But more importantly, the people of Liberia are getting spoiled for the associated freedoms that come with this pluralistic culture. I am not sure they will give it up for anything. Democracy is here to stay and I will do my part to consolidate it. AB: Indeed, how do you plan to foster unity and reconciliation among different factions within the country? JB: I believe you are speaking of political factions. It is important to agree that the “business as usual” approach to things in Liberia has not worked for the people. It is about time we subjugate our absolute individual interest to the public good. In this way, we can speak the same language and therefore understand each other on the issues that matter most to the Liberian people. I believe if factional differences were purely based on ideological leanings, we would have minimum tensions and conflict; it would then be the conflict or battle of ideas rather than personal differences enlarged to factional tensions.

I intend to address the question of unity and reconciliation across the conflict continuum in Liberia. You are aware that we fought a bitter war and the scars – both physical and psychological - of the war are present in many ways. There are also regional conflicts, old ethnic tensions, land conflicts, and other looming conflicts we need to address. It is important to let people know that the country comes first. We must also reach out to opponents and get them involved in the governing and decision-making process and be transparent and accountable. In reconciling the country, it is important also to address the conflict past and try to bring closure for victims and even perpetrators.

three people? Did you speak to your supporters to keep calm? What is the official response to this?

We intend to draw from the work of the erstwhile Truth and Reconciliation Commission and the Roadmap for Peace and Reconciliation in our reconciliation effort. More importantly, we will provide the political will for national reconciliation, and ensure that our development goals bring about the needed changes in the material and social conditions of the Liberian people.

AB: How do you plan to tackle corruption and promote transparent governance in Liberia?

AB: Can you comment on the car that was crashed into your jubilant supporters in Monrovia, killing

JB: It was an absolute tragedy. To see three young people full of hope for the future lose their lives when celebrating an election victory they fought hard for in a freak accident was heartbreaking for me as a father. We condemned the incident, which was malicious, and later cancelled all planned victory celebrations in the week out of respect and to honour the victims. Thankfully our supporters were largely restrained from overacting, preventing a potential escalation of the incident. We heard later that the government arrested and charged the driver with murder.

JB: As I mentioned earlier, we ran on a message of integrity and anti-corruption because we believe public corruption is a menace and disease that eats at the very core of national development. It particularly hurts the poor and vulnerable as corrupt practices in the public sector deprive people of social services and other public goods, and a chance to live a decent life.

AFRICA BRIEFING JANUARY - FEBRUARY 2024

COVER STORY

“Women will play an increasing role in leadership in my administration”

In Liberia, it is not a want of integrity laws or regulations that make the fight against corruption seem especially difficult; it is the lack of implementation and the political will by the leadership to engage in the fight. So, for example, several integrity institutions and accountability laws were created during the two presidential terms when I was vice president, and before Weah’s administration. Some of these are the Liberia Anti–Corruption Commission, the General Auditing Commission, the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, the Public Procurement Concession Commission, the Internal Audit Agency, and the Code of Conduct. As we saw, the performance of most of these institutions was subpar because of compromises as they lacked political support. I intend to ensure that these anti-graft agencies work properly and are supported. Officials and other public sector workers serving in my government will be required to not only follow regulations but must be seen as people who genuinely 12

demonstrate ethical behaviour in public service. I am aware that fighting corruption is not a walk in the park; it is a long haul, which may also require education of our young in school to help future generations overcome this problem. But we will begin with ourselves by running a transparent and open government, requiring my officials to declare their assets from day one beginning with me. Ethical and other regulatory breaches will be prosecuted openly and transparently, with the confiscation of property illegally acquired by those found guilty. We will set an example of those who violate the law. As I promised Liberians during my campaign, we will conduct an audit of the previous government to determine the stewardship of public resources, and those found to breach standards will account to the public and face the consequences according to law. Reports are filtering in at the moment about deliberate acts of arson on public buildings to destroy public records. If

these reports are true, investigations will be conducted and those found responsible be brought to justice. Specific executive pronouncements to help with the antigraft fight will be announced early in my administration. I will also work with the legislature on how we may find common ground to improve public accountability. AB: There has been talk recently of suspect mining deals that were struck during the presidency of Ellen Johnson and when you were vice president, although you and the president were said to not be personally involved. Would these deals be revisited? JB: Our country has for years depended on the extractive sector for revenue generation. Despite its contribution to economic growth, the sector, including the revenue generated from it has not been managed well in ways that substantially benefit the country. We need to rethink how concessions must work for our people across the entire value chain with deliberate decisions on value

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COVER STORY back up the free education programme. What plans do you have to enhance the country's education system and ensure quality education for all Liberian children? JB: Education is critical for our development and future. Our university used to be one of the best in Africa but the educational system as a whole is severely challenged because of the impact of our long war and the minimum public investment made so far into it. I do not think policies on education should be ad hoc pronouncements without being properly informed. Yes, there is a need to intervene to bring relief to students and their parents who bear the brunt of the cost of tuition and other fees. It must however be driven not by electoral politics but by real need and the impact on students' welfare and the development of the country as a whole.

addition to extraction. But more than that, natural resource exploitation must not only bring growth, but that growth must equally come with development in ways that allow revenue to be properly ploughed back into the delivery of social services and other public goods. Not only has it become one of the drivers of public resource abuse and corruption, but the poor exploitation of our resources has marginalized host communities and degraded the environment. We will work to correct this. So, yes dubious mining deals, agreements, or contracts will be reviewed to ensure that they not only comply with the controlling laws, and regulations and align with our development agenda but that the government will be a major partner with an equity stake in natural resource exploitation. AB: Free education is available for high school pupils, and also for students at public universities. But standards are said to be falling because the institutions lack funding from the government to

I support free education generally but there is the need to thoroughly think through our policies for them to have the desired impact. Early childhood education is a priority for us as we are aiming to ensure that our children receive uninterrupted education compared to the generation of the conflict period, many of whom did not complete school because of the disruption of the war. This is why we are also going to focus on technical education, which will have a dual impact. First, it will ensure that young Liberians who could not attend formal school or dropped out of school will acquire skills to make them employable. Second, technical training will help develop the manpower we need to implement our agenda for the country. We are also aware of the need for qualified teachers and better facilities to improve the quality of learning. We are committed to advancing the learning experience of our children. AB: Youth unemployment is a major problem in Liberia. How does your government plan to create more jobs in the private, rather than the public sector? JB: Our population is young. With an average age of about 18 years, this youth bulge in a population of 5 million people potentially translates into a population dividend essential for increased economic productivity when put to work. This is why we also emphasize technical and vocational training in our educational programs to help young people get the jobs they need.

Our development plan will expand and strengthen the private sector as a way of creating employment, especially for the youth. AB: This issue is compounded by a bloated civil service that is, frankly, not working. How do you plan to address this challenge? The government is the largest employer in the country. This has been so for many decades now because the private sector is not seriously expanding much to absolve the thousands of school graduates and others seeking jobs to make income. As a result, the government has unfortunately become the main outlet for those seeking employment in the country. In addition, there seems to be a growing informal sector that is attracting many young people but that too needs support and structuring to benefit the thousands who see it as a last resort. All these factors have conspired to put pressure on the civil service to the extent that it is massively bloated and accounts for about half of the national budgetary expenditure. Since November, the wage bill has increased as more and more people are placed on payroll even as a transition is in process. It is a challenge but we are resolved to address it. We must clean payrolls to remove ghost names and ensure employment in the civil service is strictly based on merit. And as you know, there seems to be an inverse relationship between a bloated civil service and servicing the wage bill. AB: Infrastructure development is vital for progress. What are your development plans for this sector, especially in rural areas? JB: I have said that we will not make meaningful economic and social progress in Liberia if we do not take purposeful action to develop and improve our infrastructure, especially roads. The absence of good roads has largely been responsible for the rural neglect we see in our country today. As a presidential candidate, I made the provision of road connectivity across the country a major campaign promise in the last two elections because of the need to open up the country for development. Our plan to improve agriculture production, develop tourism, promote commerce and industry, and grant citizens access to social services will be enhanced by building roads. So, the plan is to construct highways and connect every

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COVER STORY

“As the oldest African republic, we have been in the vanguard of continent-wide cooperation”

county capital with paved roads. The roads in the southeast of the country are a priority for us because citizens in that region have suffered for too long because of nearly impassable roads. As a first step, my first 100-day plan will ensure that no car is stuck in the mud anywhere in the country.

Ex-president Weah at the inauguration

AB: How do you envision strengthening Liberia's ties with other African nations and the international community during your tenure? JB: Restoring our image and taking our rightful place among the comity of nations will be informed by the way we govern at home by showing to the world we intend to lead by example in our relations with other countries. As the oldest African republic, we have been in the vanguard of continent-wide cooperation. We will continue to engage and improve our relations with other African countries for the benefit of our peoples, fostering bilateral, sub-regional and regional cooperation. Our history, culture, the risks and threats we face as well as our potential are not particularly dissimilar, and therefore forging economic and social cooperation will be mutually beneficial to our people. In this regard, working with regional bodies such as the Mano River Union, ECOWAS and the AU will be essential. We will foster South-South cooperation and strategically engage the international

community in pursuing our development agenda in what we dub “development diplomacy” as well on serious global challenges like climate change and international security for the benefit of our world. AB: What strategies will your government come up with to deal with the issues of climate change and environmental sustainability when African countries are the world’s least emitters of carbon at just four percent of global emissions? JB: Climate change is real because we have been experiencing its impact on our environment and our way of life. The potential effect of this crisis on food security, conflict over resources and migration is profound. The world must act fast. Liberia’s unique position as host to one of the equatorial forest reserves puts her on the frontier of the race against climate change. My government will make climate a top priority by working with other countries and non-state actors through continental and global frameworks.

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COVER STORY I believe the youth will be critical in this fight but unemployment can affect the attitude of young people towards the crisis, which is why employment for the youth in sectors such as those with minimal impact on the climate would be an area of interest. In this regard, leveraging training in technology will help drive entrepreneurship among the youth. So, yes, we will work within the global, continental framework, and with the private and public sectors in the country as the crisis is both global and local. AB: Liberia was the first African country to elect a female president whom you actually served under. Has this been translated into greater representation and empowerment of women in leadership positions? JB: Women in Liberia have historically played a prominent role in all aspects of national life. However, the ascendancy of former President Sirleaf catapulted the significance of encouraging women to take up leadership roles in the country. Advocacy for increased women's participation in government, politics, and other professional endeavours was more evident during Sirleaf's administration as

she became the arrowhead for women's rights in the country and the continent. In the last few years, however, we have seen women's participation dwindle, which is a disappointment. We will correct that as women will play an increasing role in leadership in my administration. We will also foster ways by which women's representation in the legislature beyond the 30 percent threshold can be increased. AB: What personal values or principles guide your leadership style, and how do you plan to implement them in taking Liberia forward? JB: Growing up in poverty as a child with a mother with disabilities and an absent father, and having to walk twice from the northernmost region of Liberia to Monrovia in pursuit of greener pastures was anything but normal. I would say plainly that I raised myself under such difficult circumstances without losing sight of my goal to survive and care for my indigent mother and family. I believe God had a purpose for my life to take me through what frankly would be a journey of no return or a cul-de-sac for the faint-hearted. This difficult journey

of survival helped me develop values that have guided my personal, professional and leadership life all my life. I do not think I could have made it without cultivating values such as integrity, honesty, humility, compassion and empathy, respect and selfless service. As a young man growing up in Monrovia, I knew where I came from and did not want to fail or lose the rare opportunity I had to go to school and work. I had to demonstrate integrity and honesty at school and work and in my relationship with others. My poor background not only gave me a good sense of humility but also enabled me to demonstrate selflessness and compassion for others I met on my journey in similar circumstances. I have learned to do the right thing and be truthful about what I say or do. I have also learned not to take what does not belong to me and work hard for what I want. I believe it is important to serve others because there is humanity in each one of us that can change the world. I pray to God to live by these values during my presidency in the way I serve, lead my team, fight public corruption, and rally the country for the public good. AB

Presidents past and present: Weah, Boakai and Sirleaf Johnson

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COVER STORY

Liberia bucks worrying trend in West Africa In a region that is replete with political chaos, the outcome of the recent elections in Liberia came as a surprise to many, writes Alphonso Toweh

FTER a close battle between the incumbent Congress for Democratic Change (CDC) and the main opposition party, Unity Party (UP), the later was declared the winner. To the disbelief of many, President George Weah called to congratulate his opponent, Joseph Boakai. Both live in the same community; less than 500 metres apart. This was unprecedented for a ruling party in Liberia, and West Africa for that matter, to concede defeat, even before the final result was announced by the electoral body. Before Weah conceded defeat, the country was tense and politically charged.

“I thought that there was going to be war,” noted Washington Watson, a local journalist. “We were afraid. But after President Weah congratulated Ambassador Boakai, I breathed a sigh of relief. The cloud changed.”

how the elections would turn out. Senator Prince Johnson, a former rebel leader, was in the thick of the political horse-trading.

Liberians had every right to have been apprehensive about the outcome of the elections, having endured two civil wars in the 1990s and 2000s that left hundreds of thousands of civilians dead and caused massive destruction of infrastructure.

His Movement for Democracy and Reconstruction (MDR) provided Boakai with his running mate, Jeremiah Koung, a self-made businessman, and this made the difference during the election. While Weah was battling with dissent among members of his coalition partner, the National Patriotic Party (NPP), the Boakai-Koung ticket had a clear field.

Calls for a war crimes tribunal has been constantly rejected by the powers that be, and so it was not surprising that ordinary Liberians were worried about

During the presidential campaign, Boakai and the 45-year-old Koung said they were on a mission to rescue Liberia and called on everyone to discourage the

Vice President Jeremiah Koung: the bridge between the leadership and young Liberians

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COVER STORY culture of unfinished business. The 79-yearold Boakai who served as vice president under Ellen Johnson Sirleaf for 12 years, said he was ready to move on, despite what he termed as huge challenges ahead. So, in his inaugural address on January 22, Boakai pointed out some of the issues Liberia was facing today and said it was time to tackle them. “We must discourage the culture of unfinished business; doing things in a haphazard and unserious manner,” he said. “We must restore hope to ourselves, individually, and collectively. “We must also restore dignity and integrity to public service – liveable remuneration and pension schemes to civil servants and foreign service government workers. We must restore respect for the rule of law, and respect for officers of the law across our three branches of government. “We created a culture of unfinished business, engaged in ad hoc undertakings, making this behaviour the ‘new normal’. We were cavalier about the rule of law. We lowered standards in many domains of our

Senator Prince Johnson: he was in the thick of political horse-trading

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Liberians must discourage the culture of unfinished business

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Koung was an inspired selection by Boakai. Given the vice president’s To this end, Koung buttressed Boakai’s relatively young age, many Liberians are happy that there is someone at the helm statement when he addressed the joint secession of parliament. “As we commence who the restive young generation will look up to. After being chosen as Boakai’s our deliberations, we must perform our collective responsibilities with a deep sense running mate, Koung said he accepted “this honour to serve our country”, adding: “This of patriotism, bearing in mind that the is a dream to me, but I am here for one true protectors of the political power we simple reason: I love Liberia. possess are the people. Thus, the welfare “I think Liberia, and I am determined of the Liberian people should constitute the to work with all Liberians to build Liberia. overarching focus of our developmental You are supporting change because you agendas and debates. cannot afford another six years of decay, “Our people are yearning for division, hate and backwardness. accountability and respect for the rule of common life as a people. We seem to have lost our way, lost hope,” Boakai added.

law; they are seeking opportunities for employment and investments; they are demanding the rebirth of the merit-based system, where competence and results are the primary focus of our public sector; they are anticipating that we will enact laws and implement policies which address their socio-economic needs; and they are in a state of high expectation that we will strengthen our nation’s relationship with international partners.”

“You anxiously look forward to a future of hope and promise. You want government to work for you. You want government to be accountable and honest and you want government to protect you and your family,” Koung added. Now that the country has bucked the worrying trend of political chaos in West Africa, Liberians will be hoping for a better future under a Boakai-Koung AB leadership.

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ANALYSIS

Why presidential term extensions continue to fester The African Union has the institutional frameworks to address the matter of presidents prolonging their stay in power, but the political will to change this is not forthcoming because the pan-African organisation currently harbours several leaders who have already done so, argues Michael Amoah

HERE have been 35 presidential extensions across 24 countries in Africa from 1960 to 2022, done through four categories of extension mechanisms. Most extensions occur in Francophone countries, where heads of state govern for up to four decades and beyond, propped up by French foreign policy pacts or bilateral defence agreements, which station French bases that ward of insurrections against perennial presidents. This has gestated political discontent and festered conflicts. In the process, Francophone Africa has attracted US drone bases for supposed counter-terrorism, while Wagner mercenaries have taken up roles in countries where French Legions failed and departed. As a result, African countries have become willing or unwilling actors in the foreign policy agendas of the French, Americans and Russians whose legions they host.

the term limits or age limits, such as Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea, Algeria and Uganda; and (d) those who practiced peculiar internal parliamentary procedures for extending presidential terms, such as Angola (under Eduardo dos Santos) and Egypt (under Hosni Mubarak). There are two mechanisms that can work either separately or in tandem to address the trend of constitutional referendums, which extend presidential term limits. First, the Assembly of Heads of State and Government at the helm of the

AU, and its sub-regional equivalents, could veto extensions to term limits, backed by a legitimate institutional framework in place for this to work. Second, the African Court of Justice and Human Rights (ACJHR) could act as the referral institution or final arbiter on national presidential term limits, so that the constitutional courts of AU member states would comply with ACJHR decisions. The ACJHR could effectively institutionalise the veto against presidential term limits for the Assembly to work

Meanwhile, the African Union has the institutional frameworks to address the phenomenon of presidential extensions, but the political will is not forthcoming because the AU Assembly itself consists of several incorrigible presidents who are governing through extensions and do not want change. A serious thought at the extent to which Africa is prepared to look within itself for the solution to redressing presidential extensions is required. The categories of extensions generated are: (a) heads of state who began with oneparty systems and extended their tenures by subsequently allowing multiparty elections which they duly won, such as Equatorial Guinea and Gabon; (b) those who began with Republican constitutions but suspended them and simply carried on ruling by decree, such as Niger and Sierra Leone; (c) those whose maximum terms expired but amended constitutions to extend 18

Equatorial Guinea’s President Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo falls into Category A

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ANALYSIS

Alassane Ouattara, President of Côte d'Ivoire, is in Category C

must be prepared ‘ Africa to look within itself for the solution to redressing presidential extensions with it. The AU currently does not veto extensions to term limits, nor is the ACJHR currently adjudicating over the numerous controversial constitutional extensions by incumbents, let alone the disputes that arise from controversial referendums to endorse such extensions.

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the presidential elections in Gabon, The Gambia and Ghana in 2016, and Kenya in 2017. The trend has also been corroborated by further research on the presidential elections in the Democratic Republic of Congo in 2018, and Malawi and GuineaBissau in 2019, where, again, political control over the electronic vote aggregation ensured victory in the cases of the DRC and Guinea-Bissau, but defeat in Malawi where the incumbent lost control over the vote aggregation exercise.

Incumbents now pay close political attention to the central collation of electoral votes because of the emerging trend that failure to do so could prove costly. Recent research shows that incumbents tend to win Due largely to political control over a presidential election when in control over the electronic aggregation exercise, and lose vote aggregation, it is only twice in African politics that an incumbent win when not in control. has been overturned. The first instance This has been proved by research on AFRICA BRIEFING JANUARY - FEBRUARY 2024

ANALYSIS

The AU currently does not veto extensions to term limits

was the September 1, 2017 ruling by the Kenyan Supreme Court, which nullified the presidential poll of August 8, 2017, and the second instance was the February 3, 2020 ruling by the Malawian High Court which nullified the presidential poll of May 21, 2019.

respective coups in May, September and October 2021, September 2022, July and August 2023. However, Chad was not suspended in April 2021 when Mahamat Déby undemocratically took the reins of government after the passing of his father, Idriss Déby.

Even so, the Kenyan government quickly used its parliamentary majority to remove the Supreme Court’s responsibility to adjudicate on the repeat election, and rigged the revote, which occurred on October 26, 2017. The Malawian revote on June 23, 2020 unseated the incumbent, President Peter Mutharika. In effect, it is only once in African politics that overturning an incumbent win resulted in unseating the incumbent.

Suspended member states do not fully respect sanctions imposed on them, especially as the AU and subregional bodies do not exercise the capability to troubleshoot presidential extensions and other forms of impunity that generated the coups in the first place. Juntas have come to a view that they can get away with coups if they can ride the initial storm with continental and subregional authorities.

A closer look at the continent’s institutional framework and capabilities points out that the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA) is not fully ready to intervene in all situations that require intervention, partly due to funding issues. Furthermore, the AU’s policy to suspend member states when military juntas overthrow elected governments is not coherently implemented. Mali, Guinea, Sudan, Burkina Faso, Niger and Gabon were suspended for their 20

The Economic Community of West African States’ (ECOWAS) sanctions against Mali in January 2022 were duly lifted in July 2022. Similar sanctions against Guinea and Burkina Faso were lifted after the juntas presented their action plans for return to civilian rule. In large measure, sanctions have been viewed as punitive rather than corrective; for example, Nigeria cutting off electricity supply to neighbouring Niger following the latter’s July 2023 coup, which deposed its French puppet-president. Many have wondered

whether the electricity sanction was meted out at the behest of France, as it generated substantial economic losses to Niger and ECOWAS. A further look at institutional capacities reveals that the AU’s Continental Early Warning System (CEWS) has been inefficient, because continental authorities do not troubleshoot the controversial presidential extensions and their subsequent election victories, which generate political discontent and fester conflicts. The AU’s Peace and Security Council and the Department of Political Affairs have now been merged into one super department (PAPS) with two new directorates – one assigned to conflict management, and the other to governance and conflict prevention to oversee democracy, elections and constitutionalism. However, the new and untested PAPS has not yet vetoed extensions to term limits, and the ACJHR has not commenced adjudicating on extension referendums or related electoral disputes. Hence the potential remains for conflicts to arise in Francophone territory which has already proved to be conflictprone. Despite the growing anti-French sentiment across Africa, there does not yet

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ANALYSIS appear to be a definitive end in sight to French interference, as occurred in Togo in 2005 when Faure Gnassingbé was imposed upon the Togolese at the passing of his father Gnassingbé Eyadéma, or Gabon in 2009 when Ali Bongo was imposed upon the Gabonese at the passing of his father, Omar Bongo, or Chad in 2021 when Mahamat Déby was imposed upon Chadians at the passing of his father, Idriss Déby. Although the restructured PAPS now has a troubleshooting institutional framework, it appears hamstrung by the AU hierarchy with presidents at the helm. From 2003 to 2008, the first substantive Chair of the AU Commission (AUC) was a presidential figure in the person of Alpha Konare, a former President of Mali, but an incident subsequently changed this.

One would have thought that liaising the operations of the two offices could suffice as a solution, but, instead, the AU subsequently never appointed a presidential figure to chair the AUC again, and downgraded the position to foreign minister level or equivalent. In the AU hierarchy, foreign ministers serve under the Assembly of Heads of Government. The current AU Commissioner, Moussa Faki Mahamat, is a former Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Chad, and his two predecessors since Konare have been foreign ministers: Jean Ping from Gabon was the AUC’s head from 2008 to 2012, while South African Nkosazana DlaminiZuma was in charge from 2012 to 2017. Therefore, the AUC, which oversees PAPS, has its own tactical manoeuvrings to circumvent in order to get the Assembly to veto presidential extensions in a continental institution where it has so far been incorrigible for the simple reason that many of the Assembly’s current members are culprits of presidential extensions themselves.

In 2005, Konare procedurally challenged the authority of AU Chair and President of Nigeria, Olusegun Obasanjo, by making an announcement without consulting the latter over an electoral dispute in Togo. Konare had announced Zambian President Kenneth Kaunda Perhaps the Assembly needs to reto negotiate the Togolese crisis while appoint a presidential figure to the role Obasanjo was simultaneously in discussions of AU Commissioner or be amenable to to find a solution to the same crisis. progressive change without a high-profile

AU Commissioner to drive that change. Also, it would be beneficial for the AU to set up the much-needed foreign policy department to handle, among other things, neo-colonial foreign military existence or interferences on the continent, instead of leaving AU member states to the divideand-rule tactics of external powers. The AU appears to be the only continental body that does not have a designated foreign policy department, and is always caught napping when superpowers bite at its member states, as happened to Libya in 2011. The lack of an AU foreign policy department to coordinate policy positions across the African continent gives leeway for Africa’s country representatives at the UN Security Council to vote against African interests when it really matters, such as when Nigeria, South Africa and Gabon voted for UNSC Resolution 197 that led to regime change in Libya. It would take a strong initiative from African intellectuals, civil society, the military and the various councils on foreign relations in Africa to mount enormous pressure on the Assembly to become amenable to effecting the necessary changes at the AU and across the continent. AB

Anti-French sentiment is growing in Africa, but an end to French interference is not yet definitive

Michael Amoah is a Visiting Senior Fellow at the Firoz Lalji Institute for Africa, London School of Economics and Political Science. The above is an abridged version of a longer article published by Sage Journals Open Access. https://doi.org/10.1177/21582440231214036 AFRICA BRIEFING JANUARY - FEBRUARY 2024

ANALYSIS

Africa short-changing itself A continent with nearly half of the world’s gold, one-third of all minerals and its human resource capacity should not be where it is today, says Akinwumi A. Adesina

IGERIA and many other African nations were once at the same level of development as some East Asian nations—notably Malaysia, Indonesia, South Korea. When will we make the shift that South Korea made, from being a country that was once on the low end of the development ladder to the rich, industrialised nation that it is today? There was a period during which some East Asian countries like South Korea struggled to obtain World Bank loans. Today, South Korea is the seventh largest exporter of goods in the world. Not only that, its GDP per capita towers at 266 per cent of the global average. Africa has some 431 million out of the continent’s 1.4 billion people living in extreme poverty, a number that has increased with an additional 84 million people since the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020. South Asia and East Asia and the Pacific had roughly 50 per cent and two-thirds of their population in extreme poverty in 1990, and saw significant declines to nine per cent and one per cent respectively in 2019.

decades. There is no reason why acute poverty cannot be eradicated in Nigeria and across Africa. We have to become a continent that grows inclusive and welldistributed wealth.

fundamentally wrong in our management, or rather mismanagement, of our natural resources. It is also clear that if we continue to mismanage these natural resources, we will remain stuck.

By tackling poverty, I do not mean so-called “poverty alleviation” because this is a term that I reject in its entirety. We cannot be comfortable with poverty. If you are sick from malaria and you visit your doctor who says, “I will alleviate your malaria,” please get out and look for a better doctor.

When we look at pervasive state capture, in several instances, of oil, gas, minerals and metals, it is abundantly clear that there is no transparency in or accountability for how we manage these resources. Consequently, in the midst of plenty, majority of the people remain poor.

I do not believe in “poverty alleviation.” If someone moves from $1.30 or $1.50 per day to $1.60 per day, they are still poor. South Korea moved from a GDP per capita of $350 in the 1960s to approximately $33,000 in 2023. That is the kind of quantum leap that we need, rather than attempt to “alleviate” poverty. Clearly, there is something

I have urged African governments to stop securing loans backed by their natural resources. Natural resource-backed loans are non-transparent. They are expensive, and they make debt resolution difficult. If the trend continues, it will be a disaster for Africa. Some speak about the natural resource curse. They say that countries become poor when they have natural resources. I do not buy this. The so-called resource curse has

Sub-Saharan Africa, which had 50 per cent of its population in extreme poverty in 1990 just like South Asia, saw it decline only to 35 per cent by 2019. It is time for poverty accountability for governments. For too long we have allowed poverty to linger pervasively in the midst of plenty. We often tend to accept poverty as normal. It is abnormal, especially when it has been pervasive for so long. To reverse this trend, we must have public accountability on poverty. Our governments must realise that it is their responsibility to lift all their people out of poverty and into wealth as fast as possible. It is doable. We have seen clear examples of such progress in other regions of the world, especially in Asia, over the last three 22

Akinwumi Adesina: If you are sick from malaria and you visit your doctor who says, “I will alleviate your malaria,” please get out and look for a better doctor

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ANALYSIS

The continent has 65 per cent of all the uncultivated arable land left in the world

not applied to Saudi Arabia. It has not been relevant for Qatar or for Norway. These are all nations that are rich in natural resources that have served them well. Why should it be different for Africa’s resource-rich states? It all comes down to governance, transparency, accountability and the sound management of our natural resources. We have $6.5 trillion in natural resources. So how in the world are we still poor? We simply need to pull up our socks, stamp out corruption and manage our resources in the interest of our countries and our people. Any nation or region that begs for food is free only in words, but dependent on others for life. Feeding 9.5 billion people in the world by 2050 will be a challenge, given climate change and the limited amount of arable land in many countries, including developed countries. Africa will play a critical role in this as the continent has 65 per cent of all the uncultivated arable land left in the world. But despite this, Africa has not been able to feed itself. Africa’s food import bill hit $85 billion in 2021, and is expected to surpass $110 billion by 2025, with 283 million people going to be hungry every year. The African Development Bank is changing the narrative. It has invested over $8 billion in agriculture over the past seven

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Poverty has lingered pervasively in the midst of plenty

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years which has improved food security for 250 million people.

to commodities in 25 zones across 15 countries.

But even as we do this, we must do more than simply producing more food and agricultural commodities. Take, for example, that Africa which accounts for 65 per cent of the production of cocoa, receives only two per cent of the $120 billion global value for chocolates.

Our newly launched $3 billion Alliance for Special Agro-Industrial Processing Zones will support the development of these zones in 11 more countries. Africa must turn the sweat of its farmers into wealth.

While African farmers languish in poverty, chocolate processors smile all the way to the bank. One is condemned to penury and the other creates wealth. The same can be said of cotton, tea, coffee, cashew and other raw commodities that Africa exports at a significant loss in revenues and jobs. The export of value-added products is the highway to wealth. Africa must turn itself into a global powerhouse in food and agriculture. That is why the Bank and its partners have provided $1.6 billion for the development of Special Agro-Industrial Processing Zones to support private sector processing and value addition

What applies to agriculture also applies to Africa’s minerals, oil, gas and metals, such as copper, cobalt, manganese, graphite and lithium. Africa accounts for 70 per cent of the global reserves of platinum, 52 per cent of cobalt and 48 per cent of manganese. The Democratic Republic of Congo alone accounts for 70 per cent of global supplies of cobalt. However, China accounts for a high percentage of refining of the strategic minerals: cobalt (73 per cent), nickel (68 per cent), lithium (59 per cent) and copper (40 per cent). As the world transitions into renewable energy sources, Africa has the largest sources of solar resources potential in the

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ANALYSIS world. The renewable energy revolution will depend on these critical metals for the manufacturing of wind turbines, solar panels, battery energy storage systems and electric vehicles. There will be so much money to make, as the size of electric vehicles market is estimated to rise from $7 trillion currently to $57 trillion by 2050, with projections showing a 500 per cent increase in demand for cobalt, graphite and lithium in the next two years. Africa must strategically position itself in this new industry dynamics. A study by Bloomberg NEF indicates that manufacturing lithium-ion precursor batteries in the Democratic Republic of Congo, will be three times less expensive than in the US, Poland and China. Africa should, therefore, not simply be an exporter of critical minerals. Rather, Africa must develop its value chains in order to process, add value and become well integrated into global supply chains. Today, Africa accounts for just three per cent of global manufacturing. Industrialising is the fastest way to wealth. Malaysia and Vietnam have used aggressive horizontal and vertical diversification of industrial production to move from lowvalue to high-value market products. They are creating massive wealth and jobs for themselves. To get there, we simply must implement the right policies, make the right investments, get our infrastructure in order and improve logistics and financing frameworks. We must make sure that this is driven by a highly skilled, dynamic and youthful workforce. Climate change is devastating many

parts of Africa, which accounts for just three per cent of all historical emissions Nine of the 10 countries most vulnerable to climate change in the world are in Africa. Africa’s wealth is being lost at a frenetic pace to climate change, with $7–15 billion in annual losses. This is estimated to rise to $50 billion a year by 2030. While the developed world grew their economies, created massive wealth, jobs and raised living standards from the Industrial Revolution, they did so at the expense of the global common, the environment, by using 85 per cent of the global carbon budget. Africa’s carbon emissions are dwarfed by the emissions of other continents. To put it in perspective, an average American or Australian emits as much CO2 in a month as an individual in Africa does in one year. However, global finance for climate is short-changing Africa, providing only $29 billion of the $653 billion in climate finance globally. To give zest to Africa’s voice and needs, the African Development Bank launched the $25 billion African Adaptation Acceleration Programme to deliver greater financing for climate adaptation in Africa. Africa has the largest renewable energy potential in the world, including solar, hydro, wind and geothermal. The problem is that while it has 60 per cent of global solar power potential, it uses only one per cent. Yet, it has 600 million people without electricity.

Africa should not simply be an exporter of critical minerals

fuels such as biomass and kerosene, while another 300,000 of their children also die annually because of indoor pollution. According to the International Renewable Energy Agency, Africa “has been overlooked in the global energy transition”. The facts bear this out: Africa received just $60 billion (or two per cent) of the $3 trillion of global investments in renewable energy in the past two decades, and accounts for only three per cent of all jobs created in renewable energy.

That is why in 2016, one year after my election at the African Development Bank, I launched the New Deal on Energy In addition, close to one billion Africans for Africa. A new deal that will accelerate do not have access to clean cooking energy, the access of Africans to electricity. Since and as a result over 300,000 women die then, electricity access rate in Africa has annually from the use of polluting cooking expanded from 32 per cent to 57 per cent. We are implementing a $20 billion programme, Desert to Power, to develop 10,000 MW of solar across 11 countries of the Sahel zone, which will provide electricity for 250 million people. When completed this will become the world’s largest solar zone. Africa must fully unlock the massive potential of the Grand Inga dam in the Democratic Republic of the Congo with its 44,000 MW hydropower potential. Despite huge potential, it remains untapped. With all its potential, Africa cannot justify not having electricity. For now, the erosion of the democratic space in several African countries is disturbing. The Mo Ibrahim Governance

Africa has the largest renewable energy potential in the world

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ANALYSIS Fixing this, however, requires understanding that the Sahel region has continued to suffer for decades from climate change, desertification and extreme poverty, and more recently from terrorism. Terrorists don’t just appear. They thrive where three drivers exist: extreme poverty, high youth unemployment and climate and environmental degradation; what I call a “disaster triangle”. Anywhere this disaster triangle is found, terrorism and insecurity thrive just as they do currently in many parts of Northern Nigeria. Several countries now spend more resources on security, increasingly displacing financing for development in a context where 85 per cent of the continent’s population is either living in or sharing borders with a conflict-affected country.

Index declined in 2022–2023. The return and rise in the number of military coups in parts of Africa, especially in the Sahel, poses a potent and imminent danger to reversing the continent’s stability, growth, and development.

Unleash potential of African youth THE continent has the largest population of youth in the world, with over 477 million between the ages of 15 and 35. By 2050, one out of four people in the world will be African. But this demographic dividend is not given. We still have much work to do to ensure that we reap the benefits of this youth potential. However, our continent is still not able to take care of and create jobs for our young people. We must turn our youth bulge into a powerful and productive youth dividend. The lack of opportunity for our youth is why we see disturbing migration journeys played out on our TV screens. This has produced a migration crisis in Europe. It has led, in many instances to ever stronger anti-immigrant sentiment in Europe and more extreme national movements. We must turn our demographic growth into an asset, not a liability.

We must urgently and comprehensively tackle this challenge to prevent reversals of gains in development. This calls for the strengthening of the overall security architecture, rebuilding of damaged physical and social infrastructure (such as schools, health care facilities, water and sanitation) in conflict-affected areas, and protecting areas where strategic resources

Right now, continued waves of illegal migration ensure that what is an asset is a liability... for us and for others. We must therefore harness our youth asset and create conditions and environments that are conducive for them to find jobs and prosper. Africa’s youth are well skilled, knowledgeable and are deploying their talents across various fields, from creative industry, fintech industry for digital payments, artificial intelligence, food and agribusiness, and music. Today, Nigeria’s Nollywood has become the second largest in the world after Hollywood. From Nigeria to South Africa, Morocco, Egypt, Kenya and Rwanda, young Africans are blazing the trail in the fintech industry, which raised over $5.2 billion last year. Africa has seven unicorns, start-up companies which have grown to be worth $1 billion. However, Africa accounts for only one per cent of the source of their venture capital funds. That means Africa is losing its

exist. Significantly raising the size of the peace and security fund of the African Union, with standby forces that can intervene to restore stability in areas experiencing conflicts, will also garner more respect for Africa. The call for “African solutions to Africa’s problems” is loud, but it will only be respected when “Africa’s problems are financed by Africa’s resources”. Political sovereignty must be backed by economic and financial sovereignty. It is high time for African countries to truly assert their aspiration, to move up from being low income and highly indebted nations, and become donors to other less privileged nations. Global respect comes when nations do not overly depend on others. If such dependence did not exist, single nations would not be in a position to convene summits with Africa, a whole continent. Rather, it would be the opposite: they would be lining up in Africa, for Africa’s Summit with them.

businesses to others outside of Africa, who see and value African talents. Africa must finance the businesses of its young population, at scale. That is why the African Development Bank launched Youth Entrepreneurship Investment Banks. They are new financial institutions that will build and support the enterprises and businesses of young people. Our goal is simple: unleash the creation of youth-based wealth and jobs across Africa. In Nigeria, the African Development Bank, Islamic Development Bank, and the French Development Agency jointly provided $614 million in financing for the I-DICE program (Digital Innovation and Creative Enterprises). The initiative will support hundreds of digital small and medium-sized enterprises and creative enterprises, create six million jobs, and add $6.4 billion to Nigeria’s GDP. There is no doubt that the future is bright for Africa. AB Akinwumi A. Adesina

Dr Akinwumi A. Adesina is President of the African Development Bank Group. The above is an abridged version of his keynote speech at the 40th anniversary of The Guardian Newspapers in Lagos in November 2023. AFRICA BRIEFING JANUARY - FEBRUARY 2024

ANALYSIS

Making the UN relevant for the future The world body has been charged with rebuilding trust in the multilateral system and reigniting global solidarity, which is approaching a danger zone, writes Youssef Mahmoud

HE UN, so far, has changed under the pressure of external events. There is now a growing consensus that if it wants to remain relevant, it must lean into the future and start changing by design rather than by accident. The culminating event of this process of change, the September 2024 Summit of the Future and the Pact it is expecting to deliver, has been hailed as a once-in-a-generation opportunity to help restore such trust and solidarity. The UN Secretary-General’s policy briefs as well as other briefs, reports, studies and essays that were on hand a few months ago during the General Assembly high-level week have offered multiple ideas for renewing or strengthening the multilateral system. Several of these briefs contend that the UN, for all its flaws, remains an indispensable forum for dialogue and action on global political, security and development issues, especially for developing countries often excluded from mini-lateral clubs such as the G20 or the expanding BRICS. Others believe that the time for incremental structural reforms has long passed. Even if agreed and enacted, these reforms are likely to keep in place a deteriorating global governance system with diminishing effectiveness and legitimacy. Hence the call by some for a broad review of the UN Charter.

Japa migrants predominantly utilise platforms like Facebook, Twitter and YouTube as sources of information

Taking a critical systems approach, the points below will focus primarily on what the Pact of the Future could deliver with respect to the reform and possible transformation of the international peace and security architecture, which fall under Chapters 2 and 5 of the Pact. In the New Agenda for Peace, the Secretary-General cites the Security Council as an entity in need of an overhaul. The reasons for its dysfunction are well 26

known and legion as are the competing plans for its reform. In his brief, the Secretary-General emphasises the urgent need for a Council “more representative of the geopolitical realities of today, and of the contributions that different parts of the world make to global peace,” as well as a “genuine democratisation of its working methods”. With respect to structural reform, the New Agenda recommends that “urgent progress” be made in the intergovernmental negotiations on Council reform in the

General Assembly. These negotiations which began in 2008 have yet to make clear transformational progress. Global perspectives on the likelihood of such progress in the near future are not optimistic. One way to help ensure that the Pact of the Future contains transformative language with respect to the Council, is to bring to the open the myth that the Council was designed by the framers of the Charter as a collective security mechanism. It is not. It is a tool for selective security whose primary

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ANALYSIS aim is to maintain peaceful relations between the most powerful states in the international system. To incentivise these states, to both join the UN and remain within the organisation, the Charter granted them permanent membership on the Council and endowed them with the ability to veto any proposed action that they deemed would “threaten or jeopardise their security or interests”. Seen through this angle, the Council’s frequent inability to intervene to prevent crises, resist acts of aggression or enforce international law is, therefore, not a “failure”. Rather, in its many instances of inaction and non-intervention or paralysis, the Security Council is functioning exactly as it was intended to operate, designed for deadlock. It was built to be explicitly unfair and undemocratic and crafted to give the Permanent 5 members control over the narratives of what constitutes threats to international peace and security and how to address them largely through the penholder system. This has added grist to the mill of those who find it untenable that the five member states that won World War II, some of

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The Security Council was built to be explicitly unfair and undemocratic

whom are instigating crises, should wield more power than the rest of the membership in a context of a radically changed world and a Charter that prescribes the muchdebated sovereign equality of all nations large and small. In light of the above, UN member states may need to make an informed judgment whether shifting the power away from the P5 or adding new permanent members would be the appropriate entry point for enhancing multilateral actions for dealing more effectively with pressing international peace and security issues. In the face of the above structural dilemmas and the performance deficits of the Council, the General Assembly did not remain indifferent. The Assembly, as it is commonly known, has had a long-standing ad-hoc working group charged with

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identifying ways to further enhance its role, authority, effectiveness and efficiency. Over the years it has made commendable advances towards the revitalisation of its work. In the area of international peace and security, the Assembly played, including most recently, a critical role under the uniting for peace resolution, which is activated whenever the Security Council fails to exercise its primary responsibility for the maintenance of international peace and security. One of the ways it has exercised its responsibility is the landmark resolution, adopted in April 2022, aimed at holding the five Permanent Security Council members accountable for the use of the veto. Since its adoption, the “veto resolution”— despite its uneven application — has enabled the General Assembly to aspire to a more

View of the General Assembly Building entrance at UN Headquarters

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ANALYSIS

The Security Council is functioning exactly as it was intended to operate, designed for deadlock

robust role in matters of peace and security when the Council fails. Some have argued that the General Assembly needs to go further and pass an existential resolution that would give it precedence over the Council in times of conflict. To further bolster the Assembly’s role, serious thought should be given to the proposal calling for the creation of a World Parliamentary Assembly or a Global Citizens’ Assembly as a subsidiary organ under Article 22 that would ensure that “we the peoples” have say in the decisions taken in their name. The above systemic innovations, many initiated by small states, and similar ones introduced by elected members of the Security Council to improve its working methods, must be valued and cultivated as steadying ballast in these times of systemic turbulence and radical uncertainty. The vigilance and collective leadership of small states is critical lest such improvements be co-opted by a system under severe stress desperately looking for ways to shore up its waning legitimacy and relevance. 28

Building on the above, a critical initiative that could unleash the transformational potential of the Summit in the area of peace and security is the enactment of article 109 of the UN Charter. The article stipulates that a Charter review can be called by “a two-thirds vote of the members of the General Assembly and by a vote of any nine members of the Security Council”. Much has been written about this article and the pros and cons for activating it. Those against it remind us of the least quoted sobering part of article 109 which states: “Any alteration of the present Charter recommended by a two-thirds vote of the conference shall take effect when ratified in accordance with their respective constitutional processes by two-thirds of the Members of the United Nations, including all the permanent members of the Security Council.” This is admittedly a tall order given the historical realities that presided over the creation of the Council, the myth surrounding its work and the ongoing bitter rivalries among its permanent members,

which are in full display in the ongoing wars in Ukraine and Palestine. In light of the above and fearing that an overall review of the Charter might be long overdrawn, the High-Level Advisory on Multilateralism (HLAB) recommended: “The Summit of the Future is an opportunity to reaffirm our common commitment to the UN Charter and announce a Charter Review conference focused on Security Council reform.” While I agree with those who have argued that the focus of the Charter review needs to be broader, no reform of other organs would have more far-reaching consequences for the future relevance of the UN than a reform of the Security Council. If the Summit, under Chapters 2 or 5 of the Pact, concurs with this HLAB’s recommendation, it might breathe a new life into the stultified intergovernmental process looking into the reform of the Council. More importantly, such a Charter review would create a regenerative space for other catalytic change processes to take root and even flourish.

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ANALYSIS Calls to recommit to what is working, reform what is not, and interrogate the anachronistic assumptions informing the current system’s structures need to be heeded. By themselves, however, they will not make headway towards transformation if the Pact of the Future does not at a minimum endorse the recommendation of HLAB on Charter review. Such an endorsement would trigger the difficult but necessary conversation on the curative care the Council should receive pending its transformation or replacement, and make room for the majority of member states to continue exploring the role of parallel inter-governmental fora for the maintenance of international peace and security. These actions, which must be pursued simultaneously, will create an incentive for the UN as a whole to gradually and proactively move from what is to what if. For this to happen, the conscious leadership of the Pact’s co-facilitators, supported by like-minded member states,

vigilance and ‘ The collective leadership of small states is critical ’

is critical. Without such leadership, the Summit of the Future may not measure up to its transformative potential and the goals of addressing the trust, universality and solidarity deficits plaguing the UN will remain elusive. Disheartening as the above prospect may sound, it does not have to be an inevitable outcome, if “we the peoples” are invited to meaningfully contribute to the Pact through a series of generative and future-oriented conversations. Generative in the sense that these conversations should engage key civil society stakeholders in fresh thinking that probes the assumptions, biases and deeply held beliefs that have informed the work of multilateralism and discern the ones that are no longer fit for purpose.

The conversations should also engage in future back thinking as a way of disrupting the present and generating visionary aspirations for a UN that is fit for a radically different world. Such an approach is more likely to produce a compelling People’s Pact for the Future that could enrich whatever negotiated text member states may come up with. Should the Summit meaningfully seize the potentially transformative opportunities, some of which are outlined above, and decide not to sacrifice the historic mission entrusted to it, it will be remembered for co-authoring a thriving, living Pact that is truly fit for AB the future.

Youssef Mahmoud is a former UN Under-Secretary General and currently Senior Advisor at the International Peace Institute. You can read an expanded version of this article at www.metapolis.net

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ANALYSIS

Freeing refugees from radicalisation and violence Africa Briefing looks at a unique programme designed for inhabitants of a refugee camp and host communities in Kenya that is providing training in mediation, peacebuilding and leadership

CCORDING to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR), there are over 108 million people displaced around the world due to conflict and disaster-induced humanitarian catastrophes. With soaring political chaos, unmitigated levels of climate change and economic turmoil, the world is likely to experience unprecedented patterns of involuntary human migration and, subsequently, increased activities of conflicts. These will be the consequences of resource scarcity, cultural and ideological differences and marginalisation.

As a response to refugee settlement camps becoming breeding grounds for conflicts, radicalisation and violence, one such camp in Kenya has undertaken a pilot project that plans to make a difference to the inhabitants. Kakuma Refugee Camp, situated in Turkana County, is a settlement of over 200,000 refugees from Congo, South Sudan, Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia, Rwanda, Burundi and Eritrea. It is managed by the Kenyan government’s Department of Refugee Services, the UNHCR, and other humanitarian groups such as the Red

Cross, Lutheran World Federation, and HIAS (the world’s oldest refugee protection agency) Kenya. The Kakuma camp traces its origin to the 1990s when South Sudanese (former Southern Sudan) youths fled to Kenya for safety from the raging wars between the Southerners and Northerners in the then Sudan. Of late, the camp has been witnessing an alarming rise in conflicts over land demarcation, resource scarcity, climate change and a spill-over of international conflicts from neighbouring countries such as South Sudan, Sudan, Somalia and Ethiopia. Some of the conflicts have caused scores of deaths, destruction of property and insecurity within the camp. Most of the conflicts are ascribed to ethno-political conflicts, resource scarcity, boundary disputes within the camp and cultural cleavages. But now, a programme has been devised to help prevent, manage and resolve conflicts within refugee communities before and after they arise. The intervention is a semester-long mediation, peace-building and leadership course for refugees and host communities at the Kakuma camp. The programme is a convergence of humanitarian intervention, technological innovation and cutting- edge mediation training. When it was first announced, it attracted scores of applicants, but the organisers have decided to start with 12 female and eight male participants from South Sudan, Darfur, Rwanda, Ethiopia, Somalia, Sudan and Kenya. On November 20, 2023, Victor Baba Emmanuel Aligo, himself a conflict-displaced person, began running the Mediation, Peace-building, and Leadership pilot course.

Innovation: network system that does not require internet connection

The programme uses technology (the size of a mug) that generates a network system that requires no internet connection, which is considered a luxury by many refugees. With this device, the participants are able to access modules on mediation, digital peace-building and leadership.

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ANALYSIS Sudan and who is a young member of the community who walks two hours to attend class, remarks: “The initiative is a necessary step for me to become a changemaker and mediator to mediate in disputes in my community, and conflicts in my country of origin.” Selamawit, a female participant from Ethiopia, is enthusiastic about the programme: “As a community leader, this training is essential for me and other community leaders because conflict resolution is a very fundamental skill for effective leadership.” The pilot programme is being supported financially by the Weinstein International Foundation, a non-profit organisation headquartered in San Francisco, California. It funds mediation training and education and empowers judiciaries, communities and individuals through its network of Senior Fellows from across the world. Other pilot project partners include Swiss Peace, Beekee Technology and Urising Africa Initiative. Swiss Peace has supported the project by offering expertise on digital peace-building. Challenges come with the territory. Kakuma Refugee camp is huge, and is divided into four segments. Some of the course participants have to walk for two hours across the camp to attend class.

No longer a luxury: a refugee now enjoys easy online access

They are required to complete 11 modules, and thereafter they are awarded a certificate of completion. The modules include role plays, quizzes, discussions and essays. Additionally, the programme provides conflict-resolution coaching and elective capstone projects for participants who may wish to deepen and develop their competencies. The training includes building conflict resolution and mediation competencies among displaced persons; creating a refugee generation of mediators and peace-makers; developing change-makers; and providing access to education. It also attempts to implement Sustainable Development Goal 16 at a micro level: the promotion of peaceful and inclusive societies as a cardinal requirement for sustainable development. Participants on the course have been

upbeat about their experiences so far. Sabit, a community leader in Kakuma, notes: “The initiative is much needed to

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Nevertheless, Aligo is confident about the future of the programme. “We envision that the pilot programme will lay the foundation stone for other projects,” he says. “First and foremost, we plan to institute a mediation community centre to help communities prevent, manage and resolve conflicts within the Kakuma Refugee Camp.

Refugee camps are becoming breeding grounds for conflicts, radicalisation and violence

empower and build the capacity of the communities in the camp to better prevent, manage and resolve disputes.” Pastor Philip from Sudan, who has lived in the Camp since 1995 and works as a security personnel in during the day, says: “The programme is a breath of fresh air for most of us who have fled conflict, and will go a long way in breaking the vicious circle of conflicts in our homelands.” Gabriel, originally from South

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“Secondly, we are considering the possibility of transitioning the certificate course into a diploma course with universities in the United States, Thirdly, we are committed to establishing a mediation club to help promote the culture of mediation and peace-making within the refugee camp. Fourthly, we are working on implementing the programme in other refugee camps across the world.” AB

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BUSINESS & ECONOMY

Unravelling Ghana's debt dilemma: navigating a complex landscape Ghana's Finance Ministry has sought to hoist recent successes in its IMF program review and negotiations with bilateral creditors in front of international audiences, but it has failed to lift domestic spirits amid rising living costs and governance concerns. In this in-depth analysis, Bright Simons explores the intricate economic, political, and geopolitical dynamics shaping Ghana's economic recovery effort. As the nation treads through the IMF programme, key challenges, including the role of the West and China and the efficacy of the Common Framework, come to the forefront, raising questions about the future of debt resolutions in Africa

HANA’S finance ministry has recently been on an active public relations campaign, consistently releasing positive stories about the country's ongoing debt restructuring efforts and its participation in a threeyear International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme, now in its eighth month. These updates reinforce established perceptions about Ghana's strong international standing and goodwill. However, domestically, popular sentiments paint a different picture. The finance ministry's narrative appears to be falling on deaf ears at home, with civil society unimpressed and citizens expressing mass dissatisfaction and disillusionment. The prevailing sentiment at home is characterised by disinterest in these IMF and debt issues and, in some circles, a growing sense of frustration. For example, whilst the finance minister and the president were busy romancing the Davos crowd at the Word Economic Forum in Switzerland, the trending stories at the time revolved around threats of strikes and demonstrations by assorted unions and ruling party grandees expressing the hope that the finance minister will soon resign. The ruling party's overriding goal of building a feelgood narrative ahead of crucial elections on December 7, 2024, is thus heavily threatened by lack of public enthusiasm. This disparity in sentiments between the international and domestic fronts is not an uncommon phenomenon in Ghana. The government, particularly the current administration, has often been criticised 32

Senior members of the ruling party are expressing optimism for the imminent resignation of finance minister Ken Ofori-Atta

for prioritising its international image over addressing pressing issues at home. This tendency to focus on projecting a positive image for international stakeholders is partly driven by the alignment of interests between the government and these stakeholders. Most international actors, including the IMF, are keen on having success stories to showcase the effectiveness of their programmes, interventions, and/or bets on Ghana. For the IMF, Ghana's success is critical in validating its treatments and interventions, which should burnish its credentials as the world’s preeminent first

responder in existential economic crises. The broader "international system" also seeks success stories to bolster development multilateralism, especially in the context of initiatives like the Common Framework, which Ghana initially rejected but later joined. Western powers, which Ghana has actively courted, view the country as a "West African oasis," contributing to their narrative of positive engagement in the region. Additionally, global investors with exposure to Ghana, such as Eurobond holders, are eager to see the value of their assets recover. Despite these international aspirations

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BUSINESS & ECONOMY

Global stakeholders, including the IMF, eagerly seek success stories in Ghana to highlight the impact and effectiveness of their programmes and interventions

and the alignment of interests, the citizens of Ghana remain largely unimpressed. The disconnect between the finance ministry's feel-good stories and the daily realities faced by the people has widened. The public, including those well-versed in the technicalities of the IMF and debt restructuring processes, demands more than a narrative of a turnaround. While the government highlights terms like "moratoriums" and "IMF Board reviews," the ordinary masses struggle to reconcile these with the escalating cost of living, corruption scandals, and a deteriorating state of basic infrastructure.

translated into improved incomes for the majority of citizens engaged in various trades within the large informal economy.

Adding to the discontent are recent scandals, such as the expansion of an opaque contract with a mushroom firm, SML, set up by a timber merchant in 2019. The contract, initially focused on auditing tax compliance among distributors and marketers of refined fuel products, was expanded in 2023 to cover the upstream petroleum and minerals sector. The company is entitled to fees bizarrely composed of significant percentages of the country's mineral proceeds and oil The disinterest at home is exacerbated exports, potentially amounting to nearly a by economic challenges. As the finance billion dollars over the contract term. The ministry's positive spin reverberates through awarding of this non-competitive contract international forums, the citizens grapple to a company lacking a track record in such with an imminent rise in public transport a sensitive domain as sovereign revenue fares, unpaid arrears of negotiated public assurance raises serious governance sector pay settlements, and picketing concerns. public school caterers, protesting over bills Taking all these factors into account, overdue by 6 months. Simultaneously, the tepid response at home to the Finance the electricity utility in the urban south of Ministry's efforts becomes comprehensible. the country is set to add Value Added Tax However, to understand the growing (VAT) to bills, resulting in tariff hikes of disinterest among those technically abreast up to 22 percent. Inflation, though falling, with the IMF and debt restructuring remains high, with prices rising by more processes, a recap is necessary. than 23 percent per annum. The sluggish rebound in economic growth has not Just two years ago, the Ghanaian

government was staunchly opposed to an IMF programme. The political opposition and some elites advocated for the country's return to the IMF, anticipating that it could address certain longstanding issues contributing to Ghana's economic challenges, even if their optimism was belied by the failure of 17 successive IMF programmes to cure governance lapses. Eventually, the government was forced to make a beeline to Washington and sign up to an IMF programme in the summer of 2022. Eight months into the programme disappointment is palpable. The disillusionment stems from the complexity, opaqueness, and apparent arbitrariness inherent in the IMF crisis resolution process, as well as accompanying macroeconomic reforms and debt management frameworks. At the domestic level, not only are opaque contracts proliferating under the ostensible supervision of the Fund, but spin often appears to overshadow a serious reckoning with the facts of reform, seemingly with the IMF's approval. An illustrative example is the recent announcement of a major deal with bilateral creditors, forming the foundation for an upcoming IMF board meeting. While touted as major progress, the announcement's hazy

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BUSINESS & ECONOMY

The gap widens between the finance ministry's positive narratives and the everyday challenges experienced by the peopleAfrica region

character becomes apparent when compared to a similar announcement by Zambia the previous year. Zambia had an actual "agreement in principle" in place at the time of their announcement with key terms that could be analysed for macroeconomic impact. In contrast, Ghana announced progress on a draft term sheet, and provided no clear information on conclusive commitments from bilateral creditors that could feed into any serious projections. More vitally, as everyone now knows, the crucial issue, when it comes to Common Framework based resolution of bilateral debts, lies in the comparability of treatment analysis, where rich countries and China aim to ensure that private creditors, including Eurobond investors, do not receive preferential treatment. The success in navigating this hurdle becomes the primary determinant for the official creditor committee process in the Common Framework. Ghana’s negotiations are nowhere near this all-important stage. The draft term sheet milestone is thus hardly the determinative step it has been marketed to the public as. 34

Moreover, despite the frantically upbeat narrative, the fiscal relief to be provided by bilateral debt restructuring to Ghana is limited. That is because the bilateral debt as a whole constitutes only 4.2 percent of the country's total external debt stock. The servicing burden to government of this small fraction is negligible, especially after the country's default, which reduced external debt servicing to approximately 5.4 percent of the total debt service burden. In fact, domestic debt service currently dominates, even after a domestic debt restructuring exercise in 2023 that was said to have shaved off nearly $4 billion of that burden. Total domestic debt in September 2023 stood at approximately $20 billion, with an effective annual servicing cost climbing towards 25 percent. The government's shift to the short-end of the domestic debt market, following its exclusion from international capital markets, has contributed to this increase. Despite coupon rate haircuts for holders of restructured bonds, annual domestic debt service, including amortisation, extrapolates to over 130 billion GHS (about $10.5 billion)

presently. Not surprisingly, Ghana's debt under the IMF’s debt sustainability analysis framework is still classified as unsustainable and in distress. What is even more worrying, the relief that would be offered by even a successful Eurobond debt restructuring, when Ghana attains that milestone in coming months, might not make any significant impact. Considering that the Eurobond debt represented 75 percent of the total external debt service burden before the country’s default, that conclusion is sobering. But the explanation is simple: presently, the country pays nothing. Any restructuring result cannot top that. In sum, the significance of any external debt relief within the country's budgetary framework is minimal, considering that most obligations have already been frozen, and any Eurobond deal without a substantial moratorium could actually lead to an increase in external debt service. Thus, the only reason the government might want to persist in tough Eurobond negotiations is the prospect of more IMF disbursements. In such circumstances, loose progress measurements, typified by draft

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BUSINESS & ECONOMY term sheets being considered definitive, raise concerns about the IMF's complicity in delaying the real macroeconomic reckoning that Ghana must face as it dangles short-term incentives before the country's leaders. Illusory progress leads to disbursements made on shaky grounds, with potential repercussions for future governments that may face challenges in adhering to the program's requirements without the allure of significant bailout disbursements. The potential threat to the country's near-future is significant, particularly when examining key quantitative performance criteria in the IMF programme. One critical measure is Net International Reserves, indicating a required increase by specified amounts at various intervals of the government’s stock of forex. However, public data from the Bank of Ghana, being four months old, only leaves room for inferences based on projections. Ghana's Gross International Reserves experienced a drop from $6.25 billion at the end of December 2022 to about $4.7 billion by the end of the following year. The government's response included ramping up gold purchases domestically, artificially inflating reserves excluding pledged petroleum funds. While these acrobatics may have helped the country scale the IMF's hurdles in this regard, concerns persist about Ghana's continuing ability to meet forex-denominated liabilities, as reflected in mounting dollar-priced energy arrears. Another key performance criterion is the non-accumulation of external debt arrears, which the government is expected to halt under the IMF agreement. However, parliamentary approvals for new foreignfinanced commitments raise questions about the government's compliance, as arrears continue to accumulate on restructured obligations. The assessment of newly contracted collateralised loans and guarantees is hampered by the opacity of many arrangements, with the government's reports to the IMF remaining inaccessible to the public and to parliament. Delays, challenges, and potential arrears related to various loan agreements, such as the $3.2 billion facility for revamping the western rail corridor, add further complexity in assessing full compliance. The programme has seen some success in achieving certain targets, such as the

Bright Simons: “while the finance minister and president charmed Davos, back home, unions stirred with threats of strikes and demonstrations”

inflation rate, which recorded 23.2 percent against a target of 29.4 percent by the end of December 2023. The primary fiscal balance, a crucial measure sensitive to debt servicing, also performed better than the target. And provisional figures for December 2023 revealing a 0.5 percent primary balance and a 6% overall budget deficit against the government's projected 5.3 percent are likewise reassuring. The central bank's zero financing of central government pledge, while seemingly holding, is clouded by a curious 3.85 billion GHS ($310 million) payment with a missing footnote in public accounts. The Gold for Oil programme adds further complexity, with transactional losses potentially construed as implicit financing of state-owned fuel trading companies. The non-oil revenue floor, a critical measure, was met by the end of December, though in the latest public reports the Ghana Revenue Authority reported an outturn of 113 billion GHS instead of the earlier projected 122 billion GHS (about $10 billion).

Ministries, such as the Ministry of National Security, have seen significant increases in employee spending. The same Ministry has been exposed for funding offbudget items such as paying for hundreds of supporters to cheer on the national team at the ongoing continental football tournament. The Ministry of Local Government's compensation budget, initially projected to increase by nearly 100 percent in 2023, ended up trending upwards by a reduced but still alarming 44 percent more than the original budget. The government's willingness to spend significant amounts on politically favoured contractors, as seen in deals like SML and in planned expansions of IT contracts of dubious merit, raises questions about its true commitment to fiscal prudence.

Domestic observers marvel at the government's ability to persist such conduct when it is supposed to be under IMF scrutiny. Some blame “favouritism”. The charge of favouritism gains prominence when comparing Ghana's current IMF programme with previous ones and those Credit must certainly be given to the government for skilfully managing the IMF of its peers like Zambia and Mozambique. Previous IMF programmes frontloaded relationship and aligning with influential important reforms in areas like public countries with significant influence on the procurement, tax exemptions, and public IMF Board. auditing enhancements. By focusing early A notable aspect of the government's on structural reforms, the emphasis of strategy has been the adept shifting of pain such programs was placed on tackling from the central government to dispersed deep festering wounds instead of applying private interests, maintaining patronage power and avoiding key austerity measures. shiny band-aid. In contrast, Ghana's current Unlike the previous government, the current program appears to have a narrower emphasis on certain macroeconomic administration has resisted implementing targets, especially those responsive to quick certain hallmarks of austerity. There has fixes like debt restructuring. been no freeze on public sector hiring or Some of these decisions can be a ceiling on wage increments. But such political dexterity has, in some cases, come interpreted as driven by a certain favouritism towards the current Ghanaian at a price to public financial management.

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BUSINESS & ECONOMY government. If real, such a thing would not be unprecedented, and would merely underscore the geopolitical and systemic factors influencing the IMF's decisions. The Fund's deviations from “technocratic impartiality” are well known, as scholars like Princeton’s Pop-Eleches have shown. Its main shareholders, especially those Western powers that Ghana has recently expended enormous effort to woo, exercise greater leeway to use IMF resources for narrower geoeconomic or political objectives. However, caution is advised not to overemphasise the geopolitical dimension, as operational reasons and a desire to keep programmes focused may also contribute to these deviations. In the context of short-term incentives, both the IMF and commercial creditors have a shared interest in building momentum behind the narrative of Ghana's recovery. This narrative directly impacts the recovery rate creditors can anticipate when Ghana eventually exits default. The post-exchange performance of bonds is contingent on the credibility of Ghana's new promises to meet its financial obligations. However, the circular nature of the narrative raises concerns. Defaulting on debt can improve the primary balance, aiding central bank financing, inflation, and currency depreciation in the short term. Yet, the real effects are contingent, with the risk of postponing critical fiscal decisions. The perils of kicking the can down the road are evident in decisions like the Ghana Audit Service's choice not to audit overseas diplomatic missions in 2023, potentially compromising Public Financial Management (PFM) compliance in the future.

Then there are the systemic confusions. For example, the government's push for over a hundred new hospitals, as part of a special presidential initiative, using declining oil revenue, while freezing capex in the main health budget, highlights the challenges associated with balancing short-term measures for electoral gain with long-term fiscal consequences. The full impact of such decisions may only become apparent when operationalising new facilities and finding a place for their equipment resourcing and maintenance bills. It should be apparent by now why domestic audiences have been switching off. The full spectrum of relevant facts regarding Ghana's latest economic recovery programme is hard to follow for even trained analysts. It is also complicated by external forces, particularly the stance of Western powers and China. The potential implications of the Common Framework, designed to facilitate orderly debt restructuring processes, remain uncertain. The framework's success relies on creditor coordination and adherence to certain principles, yet significant hurdles persist. China's posture towards Ghana will only be revealed when the country crosses the upcoming MOU stage and commences the actual bilateral debt relief negotiations with the creditor countries involved. Despite the Common Framework's principles advocating equal treatment of creditors, concerns linger about the extent of China's commitment to these ideals. China's participation in the framework, combined with its status as a major bilateral creditor to many African countries, adds complexity to negotiations. The divergence of interests between China

and other creditors, including Western powers and the IMF, has created structural pitfalls that Zambia has already tripped over. Then there is the fact of China's reluctance to provide comprehensive debt data and its tendency to negotiate side deals outside the main Common Framework discussions. Meanwhile, the Eurobond investor class has splintered into groups, with some appearing to hold hopes of a Zambia-style contingency deal, in which how much they recover will be linked to the trajectory of Ghana's economic performance. Some analysts believe that such a prospect is dim, but the mere fact of divergent expectations promise a fascinating rollercoaster process of negotiations ahead. Ghana's ability to fast-track these processes, not necessarily because of their fiscal importance but in view of their connection to unlocking additional IMF disbursements before the elections, will be tested in coming weeks. All in all, the long drawn-out nature of these esoteric technical discussions will certainly dissipate public interest as news cycles ebb and flow. What will not dissipate are the economic realities on the ground and the pressures building up to a general election in ten months when most polls show the government lagging behind the opposition. Arcane IMF methodologies and creditor exit yield formulae will certainly take a backseat as the rough and tumble political economy of an incumbent government fighting for its political AB life unfolds in coming months.

Ghana’s bilateral debt service burden

Bright Simons is a Ghanaian social innovator, entrepreneur, writer, social and political commentator. He is the vice-president, in charge of research at IMANI Centre for Policy and Education. He is also the founder and president of mPedigree 36

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Navigating Eastern Africa's economic landscape: a comprehensive exploration As we delve deeper into the economic intricacies of Eastern Africa, it becomes evident that the region is poised at a critical juncture. The challenges and opportunities that lie ahead will shape the trajectory of individual nations and, collectively, the entire Eastern African landscape, writes Agnes Gitau

OMALIA’S journey towards stability and economic rejuvenation is a testament to resilience. Emerging from internal conflicts, droughts, and security challenges, Somalia reached a significant milestone in November 2023 by becoming the eighth nation to join the East Africa

Community (EAC). This integration opens doors for enhanced regional trade, fostering improved relations and economic collaboration within the EAC. The decision by the United Nations Security Council to lift Somalia's longstanding arms embargo is a recognition

of the nation's progress towards peace. However, concerns linger, particularly regarding security risks posed by militant group Al Shaabab. The withdrawal of the Africa Union peace mission raises questions about the nation's ability to maintain security independently.

Kenya’s upcoming $2 billion Eurobond repayment in June 2024 poses a critical challenge

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BUSINESS & ECONOMY

Somalian President Sheikh Mohamud of Somalia (left), with his Ugandan counterpart Yoweri Museveni

On a positive note, Somalia received a substantial boost in December with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank announcing debt relief amounting to US$4.5 billion. This relief is a lifeline for Somalia, allowing resources to be redirected towards rebuilding the economy, reducing poverty, and promoting job creation. However, the delicate security situation remains a critical factor in the nation's path to sustained economic growth. Ethiopia, with an external debt of approximately $30 billion, grapples with economic challenges exacerbated by climate impacts, slow Covid-19 recovery, and persistent security issues in regions like Tigray and Oromo. The recent default on Eurobond payments, due in December 2023, highlights the severity of Ethiopia's economic vulnerabilities. In response, Ethiopia is undergoing significant economic reforms, particularly in opening key sectors such as telecommunications and financial services. These reforms, attracting praise from regional and international investors, aim to address long-standing foreign exchange shortages. The success of these initiatives hinges on maintaining political stability, especially in addressing ongoing conflicts and security concerns. The complex interplay between Ethiopia's political stability and its

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BUSINESS & ECONOMY ambitious economic reforms will be critical in shaping the nation's economic outlook for 2024. It sets a precedent for resilience and growth in the face of adversity, showcasing Ethiopia's determination to navigate challenges and emerge stronger.

the management of its sovereign debt, coupled with astute economic and political decisions, will be pivotal in determining its economic path and influence within both the regional and global economic landscape.

Kenya, a key player in the Eastern African region, presents a multifaceted economic and political landscape. The projected modest economic growth of around 6 percent in 2024 is driven by sectors like agriculture and tourism. However, the nation grapples with a high debt level, close to 70 percent of GDP, which casts a shadow on its economic prospects.

Uganda, forecasted to grow at an impressive rate of 6.7 percent in 2024, is propelled by the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) project. This landmark initiative symbolises Uganda's resource wealth and promises to stimulate various sectors while creating employment opportunities. Beyond oil and gas, agriculture remains the bedrock of Uganda's economy, supporting a significant portion of the population and contributing substantially to GDP. The services sector, particularly in information and communication technology, plays a vital role in Uganda's economic engine.

The upcoming $2 billion Eurobond repayment in June 2024 poses a critical challenge for Kenya. Strategic financial decisions are imperative to prevent default and preserve the nation's financial reputation. The debt burden, coupled with fiscal mismanagement and corruption Fiscal issues, however, temper Uganda's allegations, impacts investor confidence and robust growth. The country's debt-to-GDP economic stability. ratio, hovering around the 50 percent mark, indicates substantial investments The political scene in Kenya adds in infrastructure and energy. While another layer of complexity. The essential for long-term growth, astute debt aftermath of the contentious elections in management is required to avoid potential August 2022 continues to cause political fiscal pitfalls. divisions. Reform initiatives aimed at reducing corruption and improving fiscal Inflation, projected at around 6.5 management encounter obstacles from percent, demands prudent monetary systemic challenges and entrenched policies to maintain economic stability interests resisting change. and safeguard the purchasing power of As Kenya progresses through 2024,

Ugandans. The balancing act between

stimulating growth and controlling inflation will be a crucial test for the nation's economic policymakers. President Yoweri Museveni's longstanding tenure provides a degree of continuity and relative calm. However, concerns arise regarding democratic processes and governance reforms, highlighting the delicate balance between stability and the need for political evolution. Tanzania's macroeconomic outlook for 2024 reflects positive growth of 6.3 percent, driven by investments in infrastructure projects and the liquid petroleum gas (LPG) sector. The focus on LPG infrastructure aligns with Tanzania's vast natural gas reserves, estimated at over 57 trillion cubic feet. Investments in LPG infrastructure, including storage facilities and distribution networks, aim to increase the accessibility and affordability of gas for domestic use. This strategic move reduces reliance on imported oil and wood fuels, enhancing energy security and aligning with environmental sustainability goals. The East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP), co-developed with Uganda, is a significant contributor to Tanzania's economic growth. Despite cost escalations, this $5 billion project is crucial for commercialising Lake Albert's oil resources. The pipeline, running from Hoima in Uganda to the Indian Ocean port of Tanga in Tanzania, represents a substantial investment with far-reaching economic impacts for the region. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) anticipates significant economic growth in 2024, with a forecasted real GDP growth of 6.8 percent. The mining industry, particularly the production of cobalt and copper, is the primary driver of this growth, essential for international trade. However, the DRC's economic growth is intertwined with infrastructural and governance challenges. The nation grapples with political instability, especially in its eastern region, marked by ongoing conflicts and recent escalations in North Kivu and Ituri provinces.

Ethiopia is undergoing major economic reforms, including opening key sectors like telecommunications and financial services

The withdrawal of East African Community forces from Kinshasa, following the DRC's refusal to renew their mandate, raises concerns about the impact on the country's stability and its East African Community membership. The just-concluded December general elections hold significant implications for the

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BUSINESS & ECONOMY

Tanzania's 2024 macroeconomic outlook anticipates a positive growth of 6.3%, fueled by infrastructure projects and the liquid petroleum gas (LPG) sector

DRC's future, with early results showing incumbent President Tshisekedi leading. The DRC's integration into the East African Community presents opportunities for increased regional trade and investment. However, managing internal security and political dynamics remains a significant challenge for its leadership. Rwanda's macroeconomic outlook for 2024 is characterized by robust growth, with a projected 8 percent increase in GDP. This growth is driven by the recovery in agricultural production, exports, and conference tourism. Notably, inflation is expected to reduce to 5.6 percent, indicating fiscal consolidation. The current account deficit is also anticipated to narrow, reflecting a stabilizing economy. The Kigali Financial Centre plays a crucial role in promoting investment by facilitating access to financial services and fostering a conducive environment for business. It serves as a strategic hub for attracting regional and international investments, crucial for Rwanda's economic development. Sudan, mired in conflicts in Darfur, South Kordofan, and the Blue Nile, faces significant economic challenges in 2024. Modest economic growth of 3.8 percent is

projected, accompanied by high inflation. The ongoing conflicts have resulted in hundreds of thousands of deaths and displacements, disrupting the economy and exacerbating poverty and unemployment. The destruction of infrastructure, including schools and healthcare facilities, has profoundly impacted Sudan's economy, leading to lost development opportunities and resource diversion to military expenditure. The political and economic instability in Sudan poses risks not only to the nation itself but also to regional peace, stability, and trade. To achieve stability, Sudan needs political reconciliation, comprehensive economic reforms, and international support. The success of these initiatives will determine Sudan's ability to navigate through its challenges and foster sustained economic growth. As we traverse the economic landscapes of Eastern Africa in 2024, the complexities and nuances become increasingly apparent. Each nation grapples with a unique set of challenges while striving for growth and stability. The delicate dance between economic reforms, political dynamics, and global uncertainties shapes the trajectory of these nations.

While challenges such as sovereign debts, security concerns, and political instability persist, the region holds immense potential. Strategic investments in infrastructure and energy sectors emerge as key drivers for future growth and development. The delicate balance between these growth opportunities and existing challenges sets the stage for a dynamic yet challenging year ahead for Eastern Africa. In the face of adversity, the resilience demonstrated by nations like Somalia, Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, DRC, Rwanda, and Sudan is commendable. Each story is a testament to the human spirit's ability to navigate challenges, seek opportunities, and forge ahead towards a better future. The Eastern African region, with its diverse landscapes, cultures, and economies, stands at a critical juncture. The decisions made in 2024 will reverberate through the years, shaping the narrative of progress, resilience, and growth. As we embark on this exploration of Eastern Africa's economic landscape, let us delve into the intricate details of each nation's journey, understanding the challenges they face and the opportunities they seize in their quest for a AB prosperous future.

Agnes Gitau is the Executive Director for the Eastern Africa Association, responsible for the EU & UK market, and a partner at the Africa advisory services firm GBS Africa AFRICA BRIEFING JANUARY - FEBRUARY 2024

TECHNOLOGY

Unleashing economic potential through AI-powered trade Ojo Emmanuel Ademola discusses the impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on trade in Africa, from market analysis to supply chain optimisation and financial services, and how strategic investments, international partnerships, and supportive policies can harness AI's potential for economic growth.

N recent years, the global community has witnessed significant advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) and its potential to revolutionise various industries. As the African continent endeavours to unleash its full economic potential, AI has emerged as a critical tool for empowering trade and fostering growth. By harnessing the power of AI, Africa can significantly enhance its trade capabilities, foster economic development, and propel itself to the forefront of global commerce. AI has the potential to revolutionise trade in Africa in various ways, unlocking its economic potential. Here are some examples and data to support this: Market analysis: Market analysis is a critical component of trade and commerce, and AI-powered tools have rapidly emerged as a game-changer in this domain. These technologies can sift through vast volumes of data to discern market trends, consumer preferences, and demand patterns, providing valuable insights for businesses. Kenya's Twiga Foods serves as a compelling example of the transformative impact of AI in market analysis. By leveraging AI algorithms, Twiga Foods can effectively analyse purchasing patterns and forecast market demand, thereby optimising their supply chain management and minimising food wastage. This not only enhances operational efficiency but also contributes to sustainable business practices. The expected growth of AI investment in the Middle East and Africa further underscores the significance of AI for market and customer analysis. According to the International Data Corporation (IDC), spending on AI systems in the Middle East and Africa region is projected to reach $530 million by 2022. The allocation of substantial investments towards AI initiatives for market and customer analysis signifies the increasing recognition of the potential benefits that AI can bring to businesses operating in these regions. As a result, the integration of AI tools for market 42

analysis is poised to become a widespread practice among enterprises, offering a competitive edge and propelling growth in the trade sector. Supply chain optimisation: Supply chain optimisation is a critical focus area for businesses, and AI has proven to be a powerful tool in achieving this goal. By leveraging AI algorithms, companies can accurately predict demand, mitigate stockouts, and optimise inventory levels, thereby streamlining the entire supply chain process. A concrete example of the transformative impact of AI in supply chain optimisation can be seen in the operations of Peermont Hotels in South Africa. Through the implementation of AI-driven technologies, Peermont Hotels has been able to enhance its procurement processes, leading to significant cost savings and marked improvements in supply chain management efficiency. The potential for AI to revolutionise supply chain operations is underscored by a report from Accenture, which highlights the substantial economic impact that AI could have on the African economy. The report suggests that AI has the potential to contribute up to $215 billion to the region's economy over the next decade, with supply chain and manufacturing standing out as

key sectors that could benefit extensively from AI integration. This forecast reflects the immense potential for AI to drive innovation, enhance productivity, and deliver tangible economic gains across various industries within the African continent. As such, the adoption of AI for supply chain optimisation is poised to play a pivotal role in shaping the future of business logistics and operations in Africa. Financial services: Financial services stand to undergo a significant transformation with the integration of AIpowered solutions, offering a multitude of benefits for both businesses and consumers. One notable area where AI is making a substantial impact is in the realm of credit scoring and risk assessment. By harnessing advanced algorithms and data analytics, AI-powered financial services are revolutionising the traditional credit evaluation process, ensuring more efficient and accurate assessments. Furthermore, AI is enabling the provision of personalised financial advice, facilitating improved access to finance for businesses and individuals alike. A compelling illustration of the transformative potential of AI in the financial sector can be witnessed in Nigeria, where Carbon has successfully leveraged

Twiga Foods in Kenya: a compelling showcase of AI's transformative influence on market analysis

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TECHNOLOGY

Peermont Hotels achieves substantial cost savings and improved supply chain efficiency with AI-driven procurement enhancements

AI to offer instant loans to individuals and small businesses based on their digital footprint. This innovative approach not only streamlines the lending process but also promotes financial inclusion by providing swift and convenient access to credit for previously underserved segments of the population. The profound impact of AI on the African economy is underscored by a report from the Boston Consulting Group, which highlights the substantial contribution that AI could make to the region's economy. According to the report, AI has the potential to contribute up to $1.2 trillion to the African economy by 2035, with the financial services sector positioned to experience a particularly significant impact. This forecast reflects the immense potential for AI to drive innovation, enhance efficiency, and foster growth within the financial services industry, ultimately leading to broader economic benefits for the African continent as a whole. Thus, the integration of AI-powered solutions in the financial sector holds immense promise for revolutionising the landscape of financial services in Africa. Trade facilitation: Trade facilitation, characterised by the seamless movement of goods and services across borders, stands to experience a significant transformation due to the integration of AI technologies. One pivotal aspect where AI can revolutionise trade processes is by automating the often complex and time-consuming documentation, customs procedures, and logistics involved in international trade. Through advanced algorithms and data analysis, AI facilitates the optimisation of these processes, effectively reducing delays and improving efficiency.

A noteworthy example of AI's impact on trade facilitation can be observed in the African Development Bank's implementation of "Boost Africa," an AIpowered platform designed to streamline trade finance for businesses. By leveraging AI, this platform has successfully reduced administrative burdens and enhanced trade efficiency, ultimately facilitating increased access to trade finance for businesses across the African continent. The potential of AI to significantly enhance trade facilitation in Africa is echoed in research conducted by McKinsey, which projects that AI technologies could potentially contribute $300-450 billion to African GDP by 2030. This substantial economic impact underscores the pivotal role of trade facilitation as one of the critical areas for AI-driven transformation and economic growth across the African continent. Consequently, the integration of AI in trade facilitation holds immense promise for fostering greater efficiency, reducing barriers, and driving economic development within the global trade landscape. To fully leverage the transformative potential of AI in trade, Africa should prioritise strategic investments in AI infrastructure, which encompasses the development and deployment of advanced technological frameworks and systems that can effectively support AI-driven trade facilitation. Additionally, there is a critical need to prioritise building AI expertise by investing in digital skills development programmes, training initiatives, and educational curriculums focused on AI technologies. This concerted effort can help cultivate a skilled workforce equipped to harness AI to optimise trade processes,

thereby promoting sustainable economic growth and development. Furthermore, fostering partnerships with international AI companies and organisations can significantly enhance Africa's access to cutting-edge AI solutions and expertise. Collaborative initiatives, joint ventures, and technology transfer partnerships with established global players in the AI industry can facilitate knowledge exchange, technology transfer, and capacity building, ultimately augmenting Africa's AI capabilities and competitiveness in the international trade arena. In addition to infrastructure development and knowledge empowerment, creating supportive policies that effectively align with the dynamic nature of AI technologies is imperative. These inclusive policies should address regulatory frameworks, data privacy, intellectual property rights, and ethical considerations related to AI in trade, fostering an enabling environment that nurtures innovation, protects stakeholders, and encourages responsible AI adoption. By formulating forward-thinking policies, Africa can proactively shape an environment conducive to AI-driven trade advancements while mitigating potential risks and challenges associated with AI deployment. In essence, these combined efforts to invest in AI infrastructure, build expertise, foster international partnerships, and develop supportive policies are essential for Africa to harness AI's potential as a catalyst for economic growth, enhance trade competitiveness, and unlock its full potential as a key player in the global trade landscape. Through a comprehensive approach that addresses infrastructural, human capacity, collaborative, and regulatory dimensions, Africa can position itself to effectively harness AI technologies to drive inclusive and sustainable economic development. The integration of AI in trade has the potential to unlock Africa's economic potential and pave the way for sustainable growth and prosperity. Through leveraging AI-powered technologies, Africa can streamline processes, enhance market access, and foster innovation in various industries. However, successful integration will require concerted efforts from governments, businesses, and other stakeholders to invest in AI infrastructure and skills development, and ensure equitable access. By embracing the transformative power of AI in trade, Africa can position itself as a formidable player in the global economy, driving progress and prosperity across the continent. AB

Professor Ojo Emmanuel Ademola is the first Nigerian Professor of Cyber Security and Information Technology Management, and the first Professor of African descent to be awarded a Chartered Manager Status, and by extension, Chartered Fellow (CMgr FCMI) by the highly Reputable Royal Chartered Management Institute AFRICA BRIEFING JANUARY - FEBRUARY 2024

TECHNOLOGY

Promoting sustainability in the digital age: exploring the Green IT landscape Ojo Emmanuel Ademola digs into the pivotal role of Green IT, emphasising the need for sustainable practices in data centres. From efficient coding to tech recycling, he explores the transformative power of eco-friendly approaches, urging businesses, particularly SMEs, to embrace a net-zero future

HE core focus on sustainability underscores the critical importance of selecting appropriate technology, recycling IT equipment, and implementing efficient coding practices to achieve a net-zero outcome. This is particularly relevant for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) heavily reliant on data centres. The evolving perspective on Green IT, accompanied by related reports on IT's contribution, is propelling a swift response to attain net-zero goals, considering the essential features of sustainability in light of the future of work. Various recommendations put forth at diverse events and prevailing reports on Green IT emphasise the need for stakeholders to responsively heed expert advice, prompting a radical re-evaluation of reducing energy consumption in data centres. This reservoir of knowledge contributions has the potential to trigger exploration into how SMEs can not only become more environmentally friendly but also yield robust outcomes in the global sustainability agenda of achieving net zero. Undoubtedly, the IT sector has emerged as a primary player in addressing the environmental challenges facing our planet. The industry's insights and expertise are indispensable in reaching net-zero targets. While this may seem like a daunting task, confidence in diverse outcomes could provide the necessary tools and information for organisations to start thinking and operating differently to meet sustainability targets. The prevailing view is that companies should adopt innovative approaches, working with differential tendencies to achieve various sustainability objectives. The rapid development of technology and the increasing waste it generates pose significant challenges. This trajectory highlights how technology continues to evolve dramatically, with additional data usage demanding greater storage capacity and bandwidth over time. As the IT industry 44

The fast-paced technological growth and its escalating waste generation present substantial challenges

remains the fastest-growing globally, emissions are on the rise, presenting a serious concern amid the planet's ongoing environmental crisis. The escalating power capacity also introduces uncertainties for the public network regarding future demand, necessitating emerging advances. Contemporary solutions, emerging technologies, and associated technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI) and 3D rendering are substantial energy consumers. However, they hold the potential to contribute to environmental sustainability. The acceleration toward a solutionoriented approach must stem from how we manage technology, eliminating waste and maximising the efficiency of daily data and system usage. This involves addressing the significant issue of e-waste, with developed nations leading in per capita e-waste production. Examining how we use energy services and manage data reveals entrenched negative behaviours. The energy consumption associated with moving data presents a colossal challenge. Studies indicate that over 30 percent of the moved and stored data is often utilised, raising

questions about the necessity for constant availability. The concept of ‘zombie servers,’ which perform no useful work for an extended period, adds to the inefficiency. Unfortunately, awareness of such inefficiencies is lacking in many Global South Countries. Reducing the over-provision and underuse of technology is crucial for maximising IT processing power and capacity efficiently while minimising energy input. Data centre design plays a pivotal role in minimising energy loss through careful considerations of where and how data is stored. Ethical ownership of data centre designs by developers is essential to reduce energy loss and deploy resources efficiently, considering the overall effectiveness of data storage in cost-efficient ways. The scenario highlights the need for effective computations and greener coding to achieve net zero, as outlined in the underlying methodology. Sustainability has become integral to the latest generation of workers and consumers, and businesses must align with Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) objectives. While the global trend toward adhering to the United

AFRICA BRIEFING JANUARY - FEBRUARY 2024

TECHNOLOGY among IT and coding communities. Various interpretations should continue to emerge, addressing many challenges associated with running a sustainable data centre. Solutions include storing data in smaller, metropolitan-based environments instead of large inefficient sites and using renewable energy that can be fed back into the community. There are multiple facets to success in this endeavour. Professional bodies must prioritise ethical approaches to understanding and applying IT to businesses and public sector activities. This emphasis should lead to the rapid delivery of a new collection of Green IT Continuous The IT sector has emerged as a primary player in addressing the environmental challenges facing our planet Professional Development (CPD) approach to innovation, especially in the Nations' sustainable development goals programmes on diverse and accessible Global South Nations, becomes an enabler is apparent, achieving emission reduction platforms. Green IT, although a vast and of greener codes on a large scale throughout sometimes confusing field, should not be commitments remains uncertain for most developed nations. Here, IT capability plays the global business of sustainable overlooked. These modules should aim to technology. The era of codes running for a crucial role, offering an opportunity for demystify Green IT, making it accessible extended periods without considering their Worldwide South Countries, particularly for organisations and their employees, environmental impact is over. It's time for African Nations, to gain a significant whether they are just beginning to consider a radical reassessment that aligns with netadvantage by applying IT resources Green IT or are actively engaged with it. zero objectives across the tech economies sustainably. These courses should help anyone of countries. Efforts should be directed at working in the IT industry better understand While facing what might seem like ensuring that server farms, servers, and the benefits of adopting a greener, more an insurmountable task, there lies an organisations operate as efficiently as sustainable approach. Many such modules opportunity, especially for the Worldwide possible, emphasising the measurement are already integrated into the CPD South Countries. Recognising the need of direct emissions. Precise figures and packages of reputable IT professional for a shift in business models, startups other essential parameters are crucial bodies globally. While the global trend should prioritise practical considerations for identifying areas that need urgent toward sustainability is enticing, especially for greener codes. Instead of adhering to improvement. 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For instance, within European Policies should make carbon footprint regulation, initiatives like the Corporate Collaboration across academia is Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD), data available to developers, adopting a crucial to instigating change at the school systematic approach to keep sustainability the Energy Efficiency Directive (EED), and university levels. Coding centres, concerns at the forefront when creating and the Taxonomy Climate Delegated Act along with various startups, should be new applications. Engaging young software strategically distributed across regions and (TCDA) contribute to shaping data centre practices. Adhering to a set of principles for engineers and developers is crucial in from diverse backgrounds globally. This creating greener code and avoiding the use data centres, along with best practices, can approach ensures that upcoming IT and help information technology administrators of inefficient languages. New frameworks computing graduates enter the industry with enhance efficiency, reduce energy costs, and can be developed to guide IT professionals the right mindset towards sustainability, toward a more sustainable software prepare for regulations. contributing to a greener future through development process. This model, in practical terms, offers their actions. The future of work demands As green code gains traction, its context for promoting greener codes sustainability, and this can be achieved proliferation across platforms like GitHub across the global business of sustainable through the application of sustainable AB will enhance usability and popularity technology. It signifies that such a radical technology. Prof. Ojo Emmanuel Ademola is the first Nigerian Professor of Cyber Security and Information Technology Management, and the first Professor of African descent to be awarded a Chartered Manager Status AFRICA BRIEFING JANUARY - FEBRUARY 2024

ARTS

From positive to negative The historic studio of the internationally renowned London-based Ghanaian photographer James Barnor has been all but forgotten, Angela Cobbinah discovers during a recent visit to Ghana

E’S been exhibited in the world’s top galleries, received his country’s highest honour and most recently was the subject of a feature in the New York Times, but when I took a trip to the place Ghanaian photographer James Barnor began his brilliant career more than 70 years ago, I almost passed it by. The building that once housed the famous Ever Young Studio in Jamestown, Accra, in the 1950s was still there but, now a hairdresser, was undistinguishable from most of the other shops lining the road – ramshackle and in need of a lick of paint. There was nothing to suggest that people once flocked there dressed up in their proverbial Sunday best to have their portraits taken, resulting in a catalogue of work that is unrivalled for its depiction of a nation on the up, or that it served as a springboard for his pioneering photojournalism that charted the momentous events that led up to independence, with Ghana’s founding father, Kwame Nkrumah, frequently in the frame.

The importance of Ever Young is always reflected in Barnor’s exhibitions, several of them using the name as a title, yet it has been all but forgotten in Ghana. “It is disappointing as, of course, there should be some sort of legacy,” the veteran snapper told me with a philosophical shrug when I visited him at his tiny retirement flat overlooking the Grand Union Canal back in London. “I was talking to a young [Jamestown] man the other day and he had never even heard of Ever Young so I would love it to be turned into a museum, where youngsters and tourists could come and learn. The building is big enough for that as there is a house at the back of the studio where I had my dark room and stored my equipment. But as I no longer live in Ghana it is difficult for me to pursue such a thing. As for the local chiefs, they are too busy fighting over all sorts of nonsense to be interested.” Judging by the crumbling state of Jamestown, the historic waterfront district where Barnor was born and bred, the government will not be intervening either.

After all, the legendary 19th century Seaview Hotel next door to Ever Young that provided it with so many customers, was demolished a few years ago, while parts of a 400-year-old slave barracoon that Barnor used as a backdrop for one of his iconic images that I was taken to by Allotey Bruce-Konuah, a filmmaker promoting Barnor’s work in Ghana, looked more ruin than relic. Now an amazing 94, James Nii Aflah Barnor set up his studio in a former beer bar just down the road from the landmark Jamestown Lighthouse in 1953 after undergoing a two-year photography apprenticeship with his cousin. He called it Ever Young because of the way he manually touched up negatives to smooth out lines and blemishes. In 1959, he travelled to the UK, where he tried his hand at fashion photography, providing several covers featuring black models for the progressive South African lifestyle magazine Drum, which had offices in Fleet St. He also worked part time at the colour processing laboratories in Edenbridge in Kent, then took up full time study at the Medway College of Art thanks to a scholarship from the Cocoa Marketing Board. He returned to Ghana 10 years later to set up the country’s first colour processing lab before opening up a new portrait studio in downtown Accra and working for clients like military leader JJ Rawlings. By this time, he had built up a vast body of work encompassing several genres and documenting important markers in political and cultural history, both in Ghana and the UK. But recognition only came decades later when he was settled back in London and drawing his old age pension. His first solo outing, Mr Barnor’s Independence Diaries at the Black Cultural

AFRICA BRIEFING JANUARY - FEBRUARY 2024

ARTS Archives in 2007, marking Ghana’s 50th anniversary, was small but enough to put him in the spotlight and three years later Ever Young, a major exhibition at Rivington Place, was likened by critics to the discovery of buried treasure. A succession of international shows, including in New York, Cape Town, Bamako and Paris, swiftly followed, leading to a sweeping retrospective of his work at the Serpentine Galleries in London in 2021. This was reprised early last year at the Detroit Institute of Arts. In October, Barnor received a rapturous welcome at the opening of the ongoing Studio of Life show at FOMU-Photo Museum in Antwerp, 40 years after studying colour processing there under the auspices of Agfa-Gevaert ahead of representing it in Ghana. “I was first discovered at the age of 79 but while it was late in the day it is nothing to be sorry about as some people never get any recognition at all,” he told me with a grin. “In any case, I did not set out with the idea of exhibiting. That came much later due to other people pointing me in that direction, and when it did, I fell in love with it. The important thing is that I am still around to talk about my work.” What of Ghana itself where Barnor received the Order of the Volta from then president John Mahama in 2016 in recognition of his contribution to his country? Small shows at the Kempinski Hotel, Movenpick Ambassador and Jamestown Café followed, while James Barnor: A Retrospective formed the Nubuke Foundation’s inaugural exhibition

in 2019. “Since then, there has been nothing,” he declared in his characteristic forthright manner. “Ghana as a nation is not interested in photography – how many Ghanaian photographers have you heard of internationally?” Undeterred, Barnor is looking to celebrate his 95th birthday in June in the land of his birth with the mother of all exhibitions. He wants the focus to be on previously unknown work, including images he took in the 1970s for the

US Information Service in Accra. “I worked there for five years on Amannee, a newsletter that was published twice a month to publicise the activities of US Embassy in Ghana,” he explained, jumping up with surprising agility to rummage through a cupboard in the corridor, emerging with a copy of a front cover featuring US ambassador Andrew Young. As usual, he was able to tell me in great detail the story behind the picture, how he had followed Young with his camera “from touchdown to take-off” during a flying visit to Ghana for a meeting with military leader Ignatius Acheampong, who a few years later would meet a shocking end before a post-coup firing squad. Recently unearthed images he took in Niger in the 1950s and those used for the 1950 launch issue of the Daily Graphic, which employed him as its first staff photographer, are also hoped to be featured. “I want it to be my best show by showing the full range of my work – few photographers get the opportunity to have covered such a wide field as I have. I’ve been very lucky to get the chances I have had in life but I have also had to work hard to make the most of them.”

The former Ever Young studio today

He later opened up a new portrait studio and worked for JJ Rawlings' Provisional National Defence Council and the US Information Service at the American Embassy. AFRICA BRIEFING JANUARY - FEBRUARY 2024

AB 47

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