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What the Puntland People really want? Survey on Puntland Population’s view on parliament elections, Government Ruling Term Extention, and establishment of Upper House for Traditional Elders
Prepared by Horn Africa Center for Research and Political Studies With Help of Sahan Media ŠApril 2018
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Content ACKNOWLEDGEMENT.................................................................6 BACKGROUND............................................................................ 7 STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM.....................................................8 METHODOLOGY..........................................................................9 RESULTS.................................................................................. 10 TERM EXTENSION............................................................... 10 PARLIAMENT ELECTION TYPE:.............................................. 12 ESTABLISHMENT OF UPPER-HOUSE FOR ���������������������������� 14 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION ..................................... 15 RECOMMENDATION.................................................................. 16 REFERENCES............................................................................ 17
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Acknowledgement Horn Africa research center and Sahan Media would like to acknowledge the following Institutions and colleagues for their valuable contributions to this Research, East Africa university both campus of Bosaso and Qardho, Bosaso University, PSU University, Mohamed Khalid, Zakarie Oog, Eng. Abdullahi Yusuf, Faduma Gashan, Jamac Dabarani, Sacdiyo Daahir.
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Background After a long anarchy that lasted a nearly a decade long, elders of northern Eastern Somalia reached a consensus to establish a semi-autonomous region of Puntland that could outplace the unrest in the region. A constitution charter was developed with a term of three years and led by the late Somali President Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed. By the end of the first term, President Yusuf has refused to relinquish the power claiming he was fighting terrorism and wanted tenure extension. After quite unrest, in 2005 the region was stabilized again with the leadership of then elected President Gen. Mohamoud Mussa Hersi and amended the constitution into a four years term. In 2009, Gen Adde was succeeded by President Abdirahman Sheikh Mohamud “Farole” again reviewed the constitution with a term limit of five years and subsequently tried to implement a multi-party democratic system which then failed and caused public distrust of his regime. In this research , we report study findings with respect to participant’s views about forthcoming Puntland elections and challenges governing to it.
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Statement of the Problem In the last decades, successive governments of Puntland failed to implement the task of promoting democracy and faced a deepening set of challenges and contradictions. They all opted an easy-way-out to win elections. Efforts to build a democratic election system, public values, political parties and strong government institutions has come to naught. The current regime of Puntland led by President Abdiwali Mohamed Ali “Gaas” had guarantees a smooth path to consolidated democracy. This study is intended to set out to determine public perception about establishment of democratic government in Puntland. Further the study also wanted to highlight preferences of Puntland citizens about the process of choosing the incoming parliamentarians. The study went further to investigate people’s opinion about establishment of upper-house consist of traditional elders.
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Methodology This survey was designed, coordinated and analyzed by Horn Africa Research and Development Center and Sahan media . The survey was carried out across five districts in Puntland (Bosaso, Gardo, Garowe , Galkio and Badhan). The study aimed to reach as much respondents across the 5 districts mentioned. Factors such as budget constraints, reach of particular respondent categories such as traditional elders, politicians, academicians etc limited the sample size of particular districts. Respondents targeted by the study were categorized into men, women, traditional leaders, politicians, academicians, students, business groups and youth. The study comprised both quantitative with only Yes or No responses and qualitative Focus Group discussion (FGD). Following quantitative interviews, 2 FGDs were complemented to the interviews to further understand the reasons of answering either yes or no to that particular question asked. The quantitative part of the survey consisted of only 3 questions 1. Term extension, 2. Election type of parliamentary members 3. Preference of having upper-house constituents. After cleaning the data, four hundred and ninety-four respondents across the 5 sampled districts were analyzed.
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Results Term Extension As mentioned above, the aim of this survey was to understand the public views about forthcoming elections in Puntland. Participants were first asked about their views on if current government intends to extend its ruling term, majority of the respondents objected negatively to this view. Interestingly, Badhan district was the only district endorsed a term extension for the current government. It was only half of the respondents from Badhan district that recommended term extension. During the FGD discussion held in Badhan districts, participants were further asked the reasons of endorsing term extension for the current government. Majority of the FGD participants said that the current government was only administration reached and implemented development projects in this district. Two notable examples of development implemented around Sanag region and particularly of Badhan is the construction of tarmac highway road constructed between Eldahir-Ergavo and the construction of Makhir University campus. Although the funding of Makhir University Campus were secured by previous Farole Administration, however it was the current government that started the implementation and the completion of the university. Participants in Badhan district also cited several other humanitarian and development projects including support in education and health in which they viewed without the current government, these projects would not have been implemented in the region. Participants from districts such as Gardo, Bosaso, Garowe and Galkio had also rejected any endorsement extension plan for the current government with re-
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spondents from Gardo been extremely against any term extension. See Table 1. Table 1 Is it suitable for the current government to extend its ruling term in office? S/N
Regions
Respondents
1
Bari (Bosaso)
135
20
14.8%
115
85.2%
2
Karkaar (Qardo)
115
9
7.82%
106
92.2%
3
Sanag (Badhan)
54
28
52%
26
48%
4
Nugaal (garoe)
100
21
21%
79
79%
5
Mudug (galkio)
90
22
24.4%
68
75.5
494
100
Total
Yes
No
394
92% 85%
79% 52%
76%
48% 21%
15%
24%
8%
BARI
KARKAAR
SANAAG YES
NUGAAL
MUDUG
NO
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Parliament Election Type: In Puntland, parliament members were chosen by a consensus from clan elders and then nominated by the clan chief. Respondents were asked to choose between three types of election that could fit the Somalia context 1. Clan elders type 2. One man one vote 3. Indirect Parliamentarians Election (The third type of election is based on the current parliament of the Somali Federal Government). Majority of the respondents overall, 44.73% has voted the election of Puntland Parliament members should be based on nomination from clan elders with the exception of Badhan . A democratic and free election system is seen as a fair and transparent system by many respondents. They viewed as shifting from traditional clan based system into a free and fair election based on political party’s representation as stepping stone and progress advancement. During the FGD, respondents said that a democratic election should have started at first year of the current government. Since it may not possible for such type of election, their second choice was to exercise the past election types, i.e election through clan elder’s nomination. Election through a system called Indirect Election was viewed as impossible and that it will create corruption and conflict within clans.
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Table. 2. Preference of Puntland Parliamentary elections? (Numbers and %) No.
Regions
Total Number of Respondents
Nomination through Clan Elders
1
Bari (Bosaso)
135
46
34%
43
31.8%
32
23.7%
14
10.3%
2
Karkaar (Gardo)
115
61
53%
25
21.8%
26
22.6%
3
2.6%
3
Sanaag (Badhan)
54
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20.3%
32
59.2%
10
18.5%
1
1.8%
4
Nugaal (garoe)
100
53
53%
14
14%
31
31%
2
2%
5
Mudug (galkio)
90
50
55.5%
20
22.22
20
22.22%
0
0%
221
44.73%
134
27.1%
119
24%
20
4%
Total
Democratic election (One-man-OneVote
Indirect Eelection.
Other
Preference of Puntland Parliament ELections Nomination Through Clan Elder Indirect Election
Democratic Election (One-man-One-Vote) Other 59% 56% 53%
53%
34%
32%
31% 24%
22%
23% 20%
22% 22% 19% 14%
10% 3%
BARI
KARKAAR
2%
SANAAG
2%
NUGAAL
0%
MUDUG
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Establishment of Upper-House for traditional elders. In general, the senate system is new to the Somali government system, with only Somaliland had a senate system in the past decade. Despite not knowing the pros and cons of this system, however Senate system seems a more of strengthening governance and establishing strong foundation for sustainable system. Puntland government did not have this system earlier, however, the study tried to look public opinion of establishment of Senate system. As seen from table 3, Almost fifty percent of participants interviewed in this study recommended establishment of Upper-house system for future Puntland elections. Discussions emerged during FGDs highlighted the need of this system as strengthening governance and wider representation of communities. Moreover, participants seemed Senate system comprising of Clan elders such as (Isimo) could strengthen the roots and a create a model of viable political representation. See Table 3. S/N
Regions
Respondents
1
Bari (Bosaso)
135
68
50.3%
67
49.7%
2
Karkaar (Qardo)
115
55
47.8%
60
52.2%
3
Sanag (Badhan)
54
28
51.85
26
48.15%
4
Nugaal (garoe)
100
45
45%
55
55%
5
Mudug (galkio)
90
47
52.22
43
47.77%
494
243
49.2
251
50.8%
Total
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Yes
No
60% 50%
50%
50%
40%
52%
55%
52%
48%
48%
52% 48%
45%
30% 20% 10% 0% BARI
KARKAAR
SANAAG YES
NUGAAL
MUDUG
NO
CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION Since the existing government and the previous ones failed to take the puntland state to the election system known as “one man one vote� and that the time remaining from elections (only less than 9 months) reveals the impossibility of holding elections of one man one vote in this limited time, in a such situation of uncertainty and ambiguity the researchers studied and evaluated the public opinion of how they see the type of elections they prefer , and also since there was rumors that the government has the intention of extending its term of rule for another one year or more, this study searched into the extent to which the people accept or reject extending the term of ruling, also the re-
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search intended to cover if the state needs upper house for traditional leaders or not. After conducting this research into those three different aspects and field researchers reached into conclusion that the people are very eager and interested to see themselves participating taking the country to one man one vote, but they see it is now impossible because of limitation of time, and the environment is not well suited to conduct such type of elections and the majority preferred elders appointment of parliament members, in our second field of research, overwhelming majority of the respondents rejected any sort of term extension, the third field of our research was establishment of upper house for traditional elders Participants interviewed in this study recommended establishment of Upper-house system and this will strengthen the government and it’s institutions.
Recommendation ■■ Since the government and previous failed to prepare the conductive environment for “one man one vote” the study recommend that the next election to be continued with old system of election that is elders appointing parliament members ■■ The study recommends the current government not to extend its ruling term under any sort of excuses and justification since the people are very sensitive regarding to term of extension and can cause an unrest in the state.
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■■ This study recommend and emphasize the establishment of Upper-house system since it will strengthen the government and its institutions ■■ the next government which is expected to be elected in the 2019 election, the study advices to start the preparation for “one man one vote” type of election from its first year in office.
References 1. THE LAW OF THE PUNTLAND POLITICAL ASSOCIATIONS & PARTIES 2. CONSTITUTION OF PUNTLAND STATE 3. http://www.heritageinstitute.org/somalia-expert-briefing/ A/rashiid Hashi 4. PDRC, (2015), Puntland political transformation 5. SAFERWORLD and PUNSA, (April 2014), Puntland at the polls.
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