Florida & Metro Forecast October 2014 by UCF College of Business

Florida & Metro Forecast 2014-2017

Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

Published October 2014

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Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

F LO R I DA F O R E C A S T 2014 - 2017 O c tobe r 2 014 R e po r t

Published quarterly by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, College of Business Administration, University of Central Florida Copyright ÂŠ 2014 Institute for Economic Competitiveness. All rights reserved.

Publications of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness are made possible by the following staff: Dr. Sean Snaith, Director Angela Ayala, Administrative Assistant Jonathan Fagbohungbe, Researcher Ashley Miller, Researcher Trevi Sellers, Researcher This forecast was prepared based upon assumptions reflecting the Institute for Economic Competitivenessâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; judgments as of the date it bears. Actual results could vary materially from the forecast. Neither the Institute for Economic Competitiveness nor the University of Central Florida shall be held responsible as a consequence of any such variance. Unless approved by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, the publication or distribution of this forecast and the preparation, publication or distribution of any excerpts from this forecast are prohibited.

TABLE OF CONTENTS Florida Highlights and Summary........................ 5-12 Florida Forecast Tables...................................... 13-18

TA B L E O F C O N T E N T S

Florida Forecast Charts...................................... 19-27 Governors Charts.............................................. 28-31 Florida News Summaries....................................... 32 Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach.......... 34-38 Gainesville......................................................... 39-43 Jacksonville....................................................... 44-48 Lakeland............................................................ 49-53 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach.......... 54-58 Naples-Marco Island......................................... 59-63 Ocala................................................................. 64-68 Orlando-Kissimmee.......................................... 69-73 Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville......................... 74-78 Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent.............................. 79-83 Tallahassee........................................................ 84-88 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater.................... 89-93 Industry Location Quotient..................................... 94

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HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OCTOBER 2014 FLORIDA FOR ECAST 2014 -2017 • You’ve come a long way, baby. Florida’s recession was deeper and longer than originally thought, but the recovery is hitting its stride.

• During 2014-2017 it is expected that Florida’s economy, as measured by real state GDP, will expand at an average annual rate of 3.1%, and payroll job creation will average an annual pace of 2.3%. Both measures are well above the pace expected for the national economy. • As of September 2014, 39.3% of single-family home transactions in Florida are cash sales, down slightly from 41.5% a year earlier. The share of cash purchases has declined year-over-year since June 2013. Are investors growing weary of Florida housing?

• Payroll job growth year-over-year should average 2.9% in 2014, 2.3% in 2015, 2.1% in 2016, and 1.9% in 2017. It will be the 4th quarter of 2015 before payrolls recover to their pre-recession highs. • Labor force growth in Florida will average 2.1% from 2014-2017. The faster pace of job creation has breathed new life into Florida’s labor market. The improved prospect of finding a job is putting more Floridians back on the hunt.

• The growing labor force and rising labor force participation rate (60.5% in September 2014) will make lowering the unemployment rate more challenging. The pace of decline will slow dramatically (and could reverse direction in any given month) as labor force growth picks up. As a result of this headwind, the unemployment rate should still hover around 6.0% by the end of 2017. • Underemployment (U-6) in Florida, a broader measure of labor market weakness than headline unemployment (U-3), remains at 13.4% through the 3rd quarter of 2014, down from 19.3% in 2010.

• The sectors expected to have the strongest average job growth during 2014-2017 are Construction (10.4%), Trade, Transportation & Utilities (3.8%), Professional and Business Services (3.6%), Education & Health Services (2.2%), and Leisure & Hospitality (2.0%).

• Housing starts continue to rise, but the pace of increases drops as interest rates rise. Total starts will be almost 84,000 in 2014, just over 124,000 in 2015, hit 152,200 in 2016 and level off in 2017 at nearly 155,000. • Real Gross State Product (RGSP) will expand 3.1% in 2014; growth will be 3.0% in 2015 and 3.0% in 2016 before rising to 3.2% in 2017. Average growth will be 3.1% during 2014-2017, 0.5 percentage points faster than U.S. GDP growth.

• Over 2014-2017, real personal income growth will accelerate steadily and average 4.1%, with 3.1% growth in 2014 rising up to 4.8% growth in 2017. • Retail sales will grow at an average pace of 4.5% during 2014-2017, growing state tax revenues in the process and providing lawmakers with greater options.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

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FLORIDA’S ECONOMY UNDER

GOVERNORS SCOTT AND CRIST An unusual election with Florida’s economy taking center stage In just a few days from the release of this forecast an unusual election will take place in Florida. “Unusual” and “election in Florida” probably sounds redundant to most readers, but this election is unusual even by Florida standards. The incumbent governor, Rick Scott, is being challenged by his immediate predecessor and the previous occupant of the office, Charlie Crist. Incidentally, both men were elected to the office as Republicans. Charlie Crist finished his term as governor as an Independent but is now running for the same office as a Democrat.

Confusing, huh? Almost makes one pine for the halcyon days of the hanging chad…almost. The evolution (or regression depending on your political perspective) of the party affiliation of Charlie Crist may have been a result of political expediency or epiphany in the former governor’s political beliefs, or some combination thereof. I’ll let the political scientists debate that issue. But that change in party has resulted in an election where both candidates have an established track record in the office they are seeking, and that is unusual. It is also interesting because at the center of this election is Florida’s economy and how it performed under each of the governors’ auspices.

Governor Scott ran his first campaign on a sole issue: Florida’s economy. His proposed 7-7-7 plan was touted prominently during his campaign, so it is not surprising that his time as governor is being judged by, and his current campaign is focused on, the performance of Florida’s economy. The inescapable consequence of Governor Crist’s time in office immediately preceding Governor Scott’s is that the state of the economy under both governors is being compared and contrasted. On the surface this comparison is not favorable for former Governor Crist’s campaign. The charts below depict the performance of several economic indicators across the two governor’s sequential first terms in office. Data on the labor market, the housing market and real state GDP show the severity of the impact on Florida’s economy of the recession, housing and financial crises. Elected in 2006 at the peak of Florida’s economic boom, Governor Crist took office in January of 2007. I can’t imagine he had any indication of what was about to befall Florida’s seemingly indefatigable economy.

The recession would begin just a matter of months from Crist being sworn in as the 44th Governor of Florida. The early signs of a flagging economy in 2007 gave no indication just how

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2014

severe the downturn would become. The recession and housing crises would consume the remainder of his term in office though there were some indications in his final years in office that the green shoots of economic recovery were breaking through the detritus left behind by the Great Recession. Payroll employment saw some modest growth at the end of Crist’s term, as did the labor force. Headline unemployment (U-3) began to decline slightly as did the broadest measure of unemployment (U-6). Tax revenue also began to pick up in the final year of Governor Crist’s first term. Real state GDP contracted through the end of his term and median home prices which peaked in June of 2006 at $257,800 had plummeted and hit their bottom as Governor Crist left office in January 2011. The median sales price of a single-family home that month was $122,200, a 47.4% decline from their peak value. Florida’s economy suffered a traumatic recession that devastated the housing market, pummeled the labor market, and resulted in four straight years of contraction in the real GDP of the state.

Governor Scott took office in 2011. The economy continued to contract that year, but on all these other economic indicators things have been consistently improving over his first term in office. The economy is on pace to eclipse the 700,000 jobs in 7 years campaign promise that more than anything else has defined his time in office.

The economy was terrible during Charlie Crist’s term in office and has been steadily improving during Rick Scott’s time as Governor of Florida. That is the apolitical conclusion that one must draw by observation of economic indicators during the two Governor’s terms. Politics comes into the picture when trying to assess blame or give credit for what happened in the economy during each of their time in office.

How Much Does a Governor Influence the State’s Economy?

I have long asserted that politicians frequently get too much credit or too much blame for what happens in the economy during their time in office. Policies pursued at the state level do matter and they help shape the economic outcomes over the course of an administration. These state-level policies are just one ingredient in a complex recipe that includes economic policies pursued at the national level, and national and international economic drivers. All of these ingredients combined determine what happens to the economy in our state.

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Most of the ingredients, including the most important ones, are simply beyond the control of whoever occupies the Governor’s office in Tallahassee.

One example of such an ingredient is the performance of financial markets over the course of this recession and recovery. When financial markets were spiraling down in 2008-2009, trillions of dollars of wealth were being destroyed thereby affecting consumer spending. However, most important for Florida was the interruption this caused in many Baby Boomers’ retirement plans. For Florida this meant that an important engine of economic and population growth was suddenly without thrust. Some estimates indicated that Florida’s population may have even declined for a time. This worsened the economic downturn in the state.

Dramatic policy pursued by the Federal Reserve—cutting interest rates to zero and pursuing three rounds of quantitative easing—helped end the financial crisis and recession and put into place a bull run in financial asset values that soared past pre-crisis highs and created trillions of dollars of new wealth. Many retirees were in much better financial positions to pursue retirement plans, and Florida’s economy has continued to benefit from this turnaround in financial markets. In the past three paragraphs I did not once mention the Governor of Florida, and with good reason. There was nothing the Governor of Florida could have done to change what was happening in financial markets either during their collapse or during the subsequent phoenix-like rise from the ashes.

Policy choices at the state level can and do have an impact, but they are not of a high enough caliber to completely counteract the forces of the business cycle. The Governor cannot be completely culpable for what happens in the state when a historic recession and housing and financial crises have engulfed the national economy. Governor Crist did try to counteract what was transpiring in Florida’s housing market by pushing for passage for Amendment 1 in January of 2008 to allow for portability of Save Our Homes and other property tax reductions. In a letter published in the Sun Sentinel Governor Crist urged voters to pass the amendment, writing that, “The tax-cut package will jump start Florida’s housing market…” Suffice it to say that despite its passage, Amendment 1 did little to change the fate of Florida’s housing market. Both Governors inherited an economy that was drastically different than the economy that was in place as their four-year terms came to a close. In a few days we will know if voters will make them accountable for that fact.

If the results of an August poll of likely voters put out by the Bob Graham Center for Public Service is an accurate indication of how voters may choose if the economy is the key issue determining how they vote, then Charlie Crist will have a larger obstacle to surmount.

In the poll respondents were asked, “Is the condition of Florida’s economy something the governor can do a lot about, or is that beyond any governor’s control?” 71.01% responded “Great deal of control,” while only 21.84% responded it was “Beyond control.”

The responses suggest that there may be little sympathy for the fact that the Great Recession, financial crisis, and housing crisis all hit the governor’s fan during Charlie Crist’s term, or that voters will deduct points due to the fact that Governor Scott’s term commenced after the recession and crises had already ended.

FLORIDA’S HOUSING MARKET Price Appreciation Stuck in the Single-Digits A Consequence of Limited Mortgage Availability The September 2014 single-family home report released by Florida Realtors continues to depict a housing market that is improving at a slower pace. The median sales price for singlefamily homes increased $10,000 in September 2014 year over year and now stands at $180,000. The townhome/condominium market slowed to just less than double-digit gains as the median sales price increased $12,700 year over year and registered $142,700 in September. Inventories of single-family homes in September are up slightly from a year ago and are now 5.4 months, which according to the Florida Realtors report indicates a balance in the single-family market slightly favoring sellers1.

Inventories of condominiums in September rose from their level of 5.3 months supply back in September of 2013 and are now 5.8 months, which according to the Florida Realtors report indicates a balance in the condo market that is tipping in favor of buyers. Distressed sales of single-family homes in the form of short sales are continuing to contract year over year (-48.0%), but foreclosure/REO sales are up versus September 2013 (38.8%), and traditional sales were up 18.6% year over year in September 2014. Distressed sales of condos in the form of short sales are rapidly contracting year over year (-57.9%), but foreclosure/ REO sales are up versus September 2014 (20.2%), while traditional sales were up 5.9% in September 2014 compared to September 2013.

1 According to the Florida Realtors, the benchmark for a balanced market (favoring neither buyer nor seller) is 5.5 months of inventory. Higher numbers indicate a buyers’ market, lower numbers a sellers’ market.

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The percentage of closed sales of single-family homes that were cash transactions stood at 39.3% in September 2014, and for condos that figure was even higher as 65.5% of all closings were cash transactions. Both of these markets’ shares of cash transactions have fallen during the course of 2014, which may suggest a diminishing role of investors in Florida’s housing market. The declining, though still high, levels of investor activity in residential real estate around the state continue to drive these high percentages of cash transactions, with help from international buyers and individuals who are able to liquidate financial assets whose values have soared in recent years, allowing them to make cash purchases.

Will traditional buyers of homes in Florida be able to fill the vacuum when the investors lower their activity in Florida? This transition will ultimately determine the path that the housing market is following in 2014 and beyond. Since traditional buyers are finance dependent, mortgage availability will be a primary determinant of how smoothly this transition from investors to traditional buyers transpires. Mortgage credit availability data raises the concern that this transition may be rocky. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s Credit Availability Index has crept slightly higher since sliding at the start of 2014. It currently stands at 116.1, unchanged from August 2014. The index is benchmarked to 100 in March 2012, and to get a sense of how far housing finance has contracted, the Mortgage Bankers Association recently released historical estimates going back ten years. The availability of mortgage credit has been dramatically curtailed relative to prerecession levels. In 2006 the index was just under 869! New regulations on qualified mortgages, part of the massive Dodd-Frank financial regulation law, are in effect. Higher capital standards for banks and stringent underwriting standards continue to curtail lending.

Current levels of the mortgage credit availability index are only 13.4% of the 2006 peak levels. While the shockingly easy mortgage credit environment of 2006 should have not come to pass, the current tightness in the mortgage market with availability of mortgages at a mere fraction of prerecession levels is not consistent with a healthy and stable housing market.

Figure 1, depicts the monthly realtor sales of existing single-family homes, as well as the 12-month moving average of these sales which is the smoother of the two lines as it averages out the seasonality in the housing market. Sales continue on an upward trajectory after bottoming out in early 2008. The economic and demographic drivers of the housing market in Florida continue to strengthen. Job growth in Florida continues to outperform the labor market nationally, and the aging Baby Boomers bode well for population growth via in-migration of retirees to Florida. 8

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2014

Single-family home sales in September of 2014 were the fastest pace in September in the past 20 years. As the fundamentals of a healthy housing market in Florida continue to solidify, we expect that the upward trend in sales will continue. This continued improvement in the housing market will be increasingly dependent on normalization of mortgage credit availability.

Figure 2, below, displays median sales prices for single-family existing homes. Median sales prices bottomed out until 2011, but since then prices have been on an upward climb. As stated in an earlier Florida & Metro forecast, the double-digit pace of price increases was not sustainable, and in 2014 the pace has slowed. Over the past year, the 12-month moving average of median sales prices has risen by nearly $13,067, up 8.0% from a year ago. This recovery in the housing market is a critical component of Florida’s continued economic recovery, and if price appreciation can be sustained, it will help fuel economic growth over the next several years. Figure 1.

Florida

Single Family, Existing Homes 30,000 25,000

Realtor Sales Moving Average

20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0

Source: Florida Realtors

Figure 2.

Florida

Single Family, Existing Homes $300,000 $250,000

Median Sales Price Moving Average

$200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $0

Source: Florida Realtors

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Homeowners are still well below the levels of home equity wealth they had seen at the peak of the housing market (median prices are currently $77,800 below the 2006 peak of $257,800), but rising prices have allowed some homeowners to resurface after being trapped in mortgages that were underwater for years. However, a high percentage of Floridians still remain underwater in their mortgages. RealtyTrac puts the percentage of mortgage holders in Florida that are severely underwater in their mortgage at nearly 28%.

This average growth of 3.1% through 2017 seems small in comparison to the 6.7% growth rate the state experienced in 2005, but it is based more on improvements in the fundamental drivers of the state’s economy and a sustainable fiscal situation at the state and local government levels as opposed to unsustainable, speculative activity and government coffers overflowing with the bounty of that bad behavior.

If the availability of housing finance does not improve over the next couple years, and if the share of cash transactions declines as we are predicting they will, the demand for housing will be curtailed, and this credit crunch will sap the strength of the housing market’s recovery in Florida. In 2014 we are already seeing the signs of this weakening begin to manifest itself in the form of slower price appreciation, and in absence of an easing of the mortgage credit crunch, we expect to see this pattern continue throughout the forecast horizon

The recent increase in house prices lifted more and more mortgage holders in the state above the surface of the water for the first time in several years, providing much needed financial breathing room, though thousands of Floridians remain deeply underwater in their mortgages. Despite this progress, RealtyTrac estimates that 28% of mortgaged homes in Florida are deeply underwater.

Florida’s housing market continues to recover from a deep depression, but the upward progress is being met with an increased headwind. Florida still has a long road ahead of it before we can talk about the housing sector being fully recovered.

O UT LOO K FO R F LO RI DA 2 01 4- 2017 GROSS STATE P R O D U C T

You’ve Come a Long Way, Baby (a lot longer than we thought you did)

Real Gross State Product (RGSP) growth in Florida is expected to grow at a faster pace than we are forecasting for the U.S. economy over the next four years. Recently revised data for Real GDP growth in Florida revealed that the economy effectively remained in recession until the end of 2011. The national recession came to an end in June of 2009, while Florida’s economy continued to contract for another two and a half years. Given that Florida’s economy likely entered into recession earlier than the U.S. economy, Florida’s payroll employment began to decline in April of 2007. The magnitude of the recession was even greater than previously thought.

In 2012 Florida finally got back up off of the canvas as the economy grew at a modest rate of 2.2%. In 2013 the economy stayed at that pace of growth, as improving consumer confidence, the housing market recovery, and the continuing improvement in the labor market have helped set the stage for faster economic growth in the state. These improvements in the fundamentals of the state’s economy will stoke faster growth in 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017 when Real GSP is expected to grow 3.1%, 3.0%, 3.0%, and 3.2% respectively.

Housing prices have made a strong upward movement from the depths to which they plunged during the housing crisis; in the crisis median home prices fell to a low of $122,200, but are now at a current level of $180,000. This price appreciation is repairing damage to Floridians’ household balance sheets, but it will take many more years to recover the wealth that was lost when the housing market collapsed.

Nominal Gross State Product is expected to rise toward the $1 trillion mark, surpassing $972 billion in 2017 and, increasing from $800 billion in 2013. Improvements in demographic trends, specifically faster rates of domestic in-migration to Florida are being fueled by Baby Boomers’ retirements, plans for which went astray due to the recession, housing and financial crises. Explosive growth in financial asset values held by households and a recovering housing market have led to a resumption of retirement plans for many. Last season’s bitterly cold and snowy winter also helps prod immigration to Florida from the great white north. Additionally, a steady stream of international immigration to the state will help feed the state’s population and thereby economic growth.

After an extreme recession that turned out to be far worse than initially thought, and two consecutive years of slower growth, all of the elements for stronger economic growth in Florida are now in place.

If the national economic policy environment were more of a catalyst and less an inhibitor to growth, the outlook for Florida’s economy would be even brighter. Even the bright sunshine in Florida cannot cut through the fog of policy uncertainty that still enshrouds the U.S. economy as it has done throughout this recovery.

P E RS O NAL INCO ME , RE TA I L SALE S , AND AUTO SALES Personal income growth in Florida lost momentum in 2013 as the sequester spending cuts took hold, the payroll tax cut expired, and dividend payments dropped off as many companies Institute for Economic Competitiveness

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paid dividends at the end of 2012 to avoid rising dividend tax rates in 2013. This led to a deceleration of personal income growth in Florida from 4.1% in 2012 to 2.9% in 2013.

This lost momentum in personal income growth will return in 2014, and from there growth will accelerate through the end of 2017. In 2014 Florida will experience personal income growth of 4.5%, and growth will remain at that level in 2015. From there it will accelerate to 5.8% in 2016, and then to 6.3% in 2017. Personal income growth in Florida trailed U.S. personal income growth from 2007 through 2012. However, in 2013 these positions reversed as personal income growth in Florida grew 2.9% while U.S. growth was just 2.0%. Florida is expected to continue to outpace the nation with personal income growth that is an average of 0.6% higher than the national average growth for 2014 through 2017. Personal income growth during 2014-2017 will average 5.3% in Florida. Personal income will reach in excess of $1 trillion in 2017, with personal income growing nearly $60 billion that final year of our forecast. In 2014 real disposable income growth will average 2.8%, up from the previous year’s 0.8%. Last year’s growth was hit by higher payroll taxes, spending cuts, and a temporary federal government shutdown. Average growth during 2014-2017, however, will be a more robust 3.9%.

Financial markets have prospered since the low point of the financial crisis in large part to the Federal Reserve Bank’s zero interest rate policy coupled with three subsequently larger rounds of quantitative easing. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell to the 6,600 level in March of 2009, but has since surged back to exceed 17,000, though volatility has increased in recent days. The bond market also continues a strong bull run, though that run will be reversing itself as the Fed implements interest rate hikes commencing in late 2015. As a result, financial assets held by U.S. households have values that are $27.4 trillion higher than the 2009 nadir of the financial crisis levels and $15.6 trillion higher than prerecession peaks. Unfortunately, the same cannot be said for home equity wealth held by America’s households, which is still over $2.4 trillion lower than in 2005, but home equity wealth has made sizable progress from the bottom of the housing crisis. U.S. households now hold $4.7 trillion more home equity wealth then they held at the low point of the housing market.

The housing market in Florida has not recovered as rapidly or as completely as financial markets have, but housing prices have been rising at a double-digit pace over the past couple years. The $3.2 trillion dollars in home equity still lost nationwide could take many years to recover, and the housing recovery is facing a stiffening headwind over the next several years. In Florida, this wealth effect will continue to weigh upon consumer spending through the end of 2017. As noted earlier, 28% of Florida’s mortgage holders are still severely underwater in their mortgages.

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2014

Years of high unemployment and even higher underemployment compounded the effects of lost housing wealth on consumer spending in Florida. As the labor market in Florida continues to show an acceleration of job creation, this will be a boost in both consumer confidence and spending. Retail sales in Florida grew at 5.0% in 2012. Part of that growth was due to higher gasoline prices, but it also reflected an ongoing release of pent-up demand by Florida’s consumers as well as spending by domestic and international tourists. As the labor market recovery builds momentum and home equity wealth is recovered, retail spending will begin to recover across a broad array of sectors in the economy. The average year-overyear growth rate of retail sales will be over 4.5% during 20142017. Florida’s continued economic recovery continues to boost sales tax revenues and provide greater budgetary options in Tallahassee. Sales tax revenues have surged by nearly $4.5 billion from the 2008-09 fiscal year low point. Through the first seven months of 2014 sales tax revenues are nearly $900 million higher than a year ago. If this growing revenue is invested back into the state with higher levels of support for public infrastructure and education, it will deliver an ongoing economic return for the state in future years.

When the national economy first stabilized and the recession came to an end, replacement needs and pent-up demand drove light vehicle sales significantly higher. Consumers who had been nursing along older vehicles during the uncertainty of the financial crisis and depths of the economic downturn began to purchase vehicles once again after the recession’s end. This replacement demand has been reflected in national sales data as economic stability and despite the historically weak recovery, has powered consumer’s light vehicle demand. Vehicle registration growth in Florida exhibited that pent-up demand during 2010-2013 when registrations grew at a year-over year average rate of near 12.0%. The venting of pent-up demand being over means more modest growth in vehicle registration in Florida during 2014-2017 despite increased incentives and plentiful financing even to sub-prime borrowers. Over this period, vehicle registration in Florida is expected to average around 4.8%. In 2017, Florida’s new passenger car and truck registrations will reach more than 1.32 million, representing an increase of over 617,000 registrations from the 2009 bottom. However, this much-improved level is still below the 2005 peak level of registrations during the height of the economic boom of 1.45 million.

E MP LOYMENT Florida’s labor market recovery continues to outpace the recovery in the national job market. In 2013 payroll job growth was 2.5%. This is much stronger when compared to the national rate of job creation, which was 1.7% for the same year. In 2014,

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the labor market in Florida will see its expansion accelerate with job growth of 2.9%. Payroll job growth will decelerate to 2.3% in 2015 and 2.1% in 2016, before easing to 1.9% in 2017. Florida will continue to outpace national job growth over the entire forecast horizon by an average of 0.8% over 2014-2017. The Construction sector was once an employment wasteland devastated by the housing market’s collapse as it suffered job losses for five straight years at an average annual rate of -12.9%. Out of these ashes the sector is rising again. Job growth returned in 2012 and will continue to build momentum exceeding 10% in 2014 and averaging double-digit growth through 2017. Construction job growth is expected to surge to 10.1% in 2014, 9.8% in 2015, and 12.4% in 2016, before easing back to 9.4% in 2017. Average annual job growth during 2014-2017 will be 10.4%. Construction will be the fastest growing sector in the state’s economy through 2017. This double-digit pace of average employment growth may overstate the strength of the recovery in this sector since growth is being calculated from a considerably lower base of employment in the sector. Nonetheless, the stronger pace of growth is a welcome change for this beleaguered sector. Remarkably, many developers are now reporting shortages of skilled construction workers. Many of the 359,000 construction workers who lost their jobs as the housing market collapsed moved out of state in search of work (close to 200,000 Floridians migrated to Texas from 2007 to 2012). The shortage of construction workers in Florida will eventually bid up wages and salaries in the state, perhaps luring some of these wayward workers back to Florida.

The Professional and Business Services sector will be the state’s third fastest growing sector on average through 2017. Job growth in this sector is expected to be healthy, averaging 3.6% during 2014-2017. Job growth in this sector during the first four years of Florida’s recovery averaged 3.0%, but over the next four years it will see more robust growth. After three years of slightly more modest growth, job growth will accelerate and reach 4.1% in 2014 before easing to 3.4% in 2015 and 3.3% in 2016. This sector, which includes primarily white collar businesses from law firms, to notaries, to advertising and PR firms, will recover jobs lost during the recession quickly and will get back to pre-recession peak levels of employment near the end of the 3rd quarter of 2014. The Information sector in Florida experienced year-overyear job growth in 2013 for the first time in eight long years. The industry is still undergoing fundamental changes as the gathering and delivery of information continues their rapid evolution. The traditional print and radio industry within the sector will be stagnant, and the news industry continues to evolve under the unending pressure from strictly digital channels of information dissemination. Sources of growth within this sector, such as software development, data processing and hosting, and wireless telecommunications, will help offset the loss of jobs in older media subsectors.

Mild job growth of 0.2% year over year returned to the Information sector in 2013. After 1.9% growth in 2014, job growth will slow to 0.4% in 2015 and than rise to 0.9% in 2016. Average growth of 1.0% is expected during 2014-2017.

The Education and Health Services sector was seemingly immune to the recession that wreaked havoc on many other sectors of Florida’s economy. The Health Services sector actually continued to add jobs throughout the recession and continues to add them to this day. This is the only sector of Florida’s economy that performed this recession-defying feat, and it is expected to continue to grow through the end of 2017. During 2014-2017 employment in this sector is expected to expand at an average rate of 2.2%. Uncertainty regarding the Affordable Care Act’s impact on healthcare in the face of delays in the law’s mandates and growing concern about the fiscal feasibility of the law itself casts a pall over this sector. Healthcare providers are feeling their way forward, slowly navigating the multitude of uncertainties this law engenders. Regardless of the law’s ultimate fate, there will be expanded insurance coverage as a result of the passage of the law, and this expansion coupled with the aging of our already older-thanaverage population ensures that the demand for health services in Florida should remain strong. This demand will continue to drive job growth in the Health and Education sector.

Manufacturing employment expanded in Florida at an average rate of 1.6% in 2012, but in 2013 growth slipped as domestic and global economic environments weakened. The weakening of economic expansions along with a series of, for now, minor crises in emerging economies, growing concern over a slowdown in China, a strengthening U.S. dollar, and ongoing struggles in Europe may have driven down job growth in the manufacturing sector as exports falter and the sector slowed to 1.4% job growth. After stumbling in 2013, we are expecting to see job growth of 2.1% in manufacturing for the full year in 2014, followed by another year of milder job growth in 2015, when manufacturing employment will expand at a rate of 0.9%. Manufacturing is expected to revisit the job losses that have plagued the sector resume. In 2016 job growth is expected to be -0.3%, and the sector shrinks further in 2017 with employment growth at -0.5%. The State & Local Government sector is seeing improved revenue streams but budgets are still below the levels that persisted before being withered by the recession and housing crisis. The budgetary crisis transcended governments in Florida from the state level down to the smallest municipalities. Consequently, job losses in this sector persisted for five years extending through 2013. In 2014 growth will be 0.3% in the State and Local Government sector. From that point, growth will remain positive averaging 0.8% during 20152017. As Florida’s population and economy continue to grow, Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F lo r i d a S u m m a r y

the demand for state and local government services will also grow and employment growth will be a necessary part of the solution to meet demands of a growing economy. State and local government will remain cautious in hiring, however. The l’embarras des richesses that many local governments experienced during the peak of the housing bubble led to an overreach by local government officials. The subsequent budget slashing that was necessitated as revenues plummeted forced local government to do more with less and this hard-learned lesson in austerity will keep the pace of job growth curtailed through the next several years while still meeting growing demand for services.

The outlook for Federal Government employment growth in Florida continues to be negative through the end of our forecast horizon. Any solution to our federal deficit and debt problems will require more revenue, but ultimately cuts in federal spending will be necessitated as well. As the Fed eventually embarks on a cycle of interest rate hikes, the burden of servicing a national debt that is approaching $18 trillion will consume a larger share of federal tax revenue. This increasing share will have to come from somewhere, and the slice of the federal tax pie that goes toward discretionary spending will get smaller. We are not predicting at this point that there will be layoffs, but as federal employees retire in the years ahead many of these positions will remain unfilled. It will likely be 2020 before the decennial census drives the first expansion in Federal Government employment in Florida since 2010. Employment in the sector will contract at an average rate of 0.7% during 2014-2017.

UNEM PLOYM E N T The unemployment rate in Florida continues to fall, and stands at 6.1% as of September 2014. Unemployment has substantially declined from its peak and, after spending many years above the national rate of unemployment, Florida’s unemployment rate is now slightly above that of the nation as a whole. These declines in the unemployment rate in Florida and the nation earlier this recovery were in part driven by a shrinking labor force participation rate. Florida’s labor force participation in September stood at 60.5%, up from 59.9% a year earlier. The national labor force participation rate, however, stood at 62.7% in September 2014, the lowest since February 1978 and down 3.5 percentage points since the beginning of the recession. Understanding these different trends in the labor force participation rate in Florida relative to the nation as a whole is critical to understanding comparative movements in the unemployment rate going forward. If Florida continues to see a rising labor force participation rate while the national rate languishes, it is likely we will see the unemployment rate in Florida remain above that of the nation as a whole. 12

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2014

As counterintuitive as it may seem, this will be evidence that Florida’s labor market is healing faster than the national labor market.

The unemployment rate in Florida stood at 6.1% in September 2014, a 5.3 percentage point decline from the peak unemployment rate in 2010.

We are forecasting stronger economic growth in Florida over the forecast horizon. This faster economic growth, however, will be faced with a headwind of a rising labor force participation rate that will make progress in reducing the unemployment rate a more challenging task. We expect the labor force to grow more rapidly during 2014-2017 as job seekers become encouraged by job growth in the state and reenter the labor force. This will have a net result of seeing modest declines in unemployment rates and the occasional increase in Florida on a month-to-month basis.

The labor force in Florida is expected to grow an average of 2.1% during 2014-2017. That compares to an average growth rate of just 0.9% during the four years prior. As a result, the unemployment rate is expected to continue to hover around the 6.0% level through the end of 2017. This will represent a decline in the average unemployment rate of just 0.2% during 2014-2017. Contrast that fall to the previous four years when it declined by 4.1 percentage points while the labor market did not face the stiff headwinds of a rapidly growing labor force. The levels of underemployment nationally and in Florida— those who are working part-time but not by their choice, and workers marginally attached to the labor force (those who are neither working nor currently looking for work, but indicate that they want and are available for a job, and have looked for work sometime in the past twelve months)—are still elevated. When adding these workers to the headline unemployment figure we get the broadest measure of unemployment known as U-6. Looking at U-6 we see a labor market still deeply damaged, as U-6 in Florida averaged 13.4% for the four quarters ending in Q3 2014 according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, while the national rate of U-6 stands at 11.8%. While U-6 is down from its 2012 reading of 16.0%, the current rate still reflects more depth of the damage to the labor market in Florida than might be reflected in the current headline unemployment rate of 6.1%.

In the next few years as the Affordable Care Act is enforced, the potential for increasing levels of underemployment in response to the full/part-time distinction in the law will require continued scrutiny of U-6 at the national and state level to properly gauge the impact of the healthcare law on the labor market.

F lo r i d a S u m m a r y T ables Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida.(%Ch Year ago) U.S.(%Ch Year ago)

696.5 -5.4 -2.8

725.4 4.2 2.8

761.3 5.0 6.2

792.3 4.1 5.2

815.4 2.9 2.0

Personal Income (Bil. 2005$) Florida.(%Ch Year ago)

696.5 -5.3

713.6 2.5

731.0 2.4

746.9 2.2

U.S.(%Ch Year ago) Disp. Income (Bil. 2005$) Florida.(%Ch Year ago) U.S.(%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. $)

-2.7 643.0 -3.5 -0.4 721.7

1.2 659.1 2.5 1.0 728.6

3.7 667.2 1.2 2.5 736.4

3.3 680.2 2.0 3.0 769.0

2014

2015

2016

2017

852.5 4.5 4.1

891.3 4.5 4.2

759.7 1.7

782.9 3.1

812.2 3.7

943.5 5.8 4.9 850.7 4.7

1003.0 6.3 5.5 891.6 4.8

0.8 685.5 0.8 -0.2 800.5

2.6 704.9 2.8 2.5 838.9

3.0 728.6 3.4 2.5 880.3

3.5 762.9 4.7 3.7 924.2

3.9 799.8 4.8 4.1 972.3

Personal Income and GSP

(%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. 2005$) (%Ch Year ago)

-4.1

1.0

1.1

4.4

4.1

4.8

4.9

5.0

5.2

721.7 -6.1

721.0 -0.1

718.2 -0.4

734.3 2.2

749.7 2.1

772.8 3.1

795.7 3.0

819.9 3.0

845.9 3.2

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change Year Ago) Employment

-5.7

-0.1

2.2

2.9

2.4

3.2

2.8

1.9

Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%)

-1.4 10.4

0.9 11.3

1.1 10.3

1.1 8.8

0.7 7.2

2.1 6.2

2.6 6.1

1.9 6.1

1.8 6.0

9.3

9.6

8.9

8.1

7.4

6.3

6.0

5.9

5.8

U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

NonFarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change Year Ago) Total Nonfarm U.S. Florida

-4.3 -6.3

-0.7 -0.8

1.2 1.1

1.7 2.0

1.7 2.5

1.8 2.9

1.6 2.3

1.4 2.1

1.3 1.9

Mining

-11.4

-0.5

3.9

-0.3

0.3

2.1

0.4

-1.7

-0.4

Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Durable Goods

-23.1 -12.7 -10.0 -14.0

-11.2 -4.5 -3.6 -4.9

-4.4 1.1 0.8 1.3

1.9 1.6 1.1 1.8

7.5 1.4 -0.5 2.4

10.1 2.1 -0.8 3.5

9.8 0.9 -0.5 1.5

12.4 -0.3 -1.1 0.0

9.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.4

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

-6.6

-2.0

3.7

2.2

2.7

3.8

4.0

3.8

3.6

Wholesale Trade

-7.9

-2.8

-0.3

1.8

1.0

2.6

2.3

2.7

2.6

Retail Trade Financial Activities Prof. and Business Services Edu & Health Services

-6.6 -7.3 -8.2 1.2

0.2 -1.9 1.2 1.9

2.3 1.8 3.0 1.9

2.4 2.7 3.7 1.7

2.8 2.7 4.0 1.7

3.1 2.2 4.1 2.2

1.1 0.9 3.4 2.6

-0.2 0.5 3.3 2.3

-0.4 -0.5 3.6 1.8

Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't.

-4.5 -8.5 2.3 -1.5

0.5 -4.6 7.2 -1.2

2.8 -1.0 -5.4 -1.1

4.2 -1.6 -0.8 -1.4

3.9 0.2 -0.5 -0.2

3.7 1.9 -0.5 0.3

2.2 0.4 -0.3 0.5

1.0 0.9 -0.9 0.7

1.2 0.8 -1.1 1.3

Population and Migration Population (thous) (%Ch Year ago) Net Migration (thous) (%Ch Year ago)

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous) Housing Starts Single Family (thous) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

(%Ch Year ago)

18,682.3 18,879.7 19,113.0 19,349.2 19,581.8 19,818.0 20,083.4 20,375.3 20,690.1 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.5 106.8 168.1 198.9 199.6 200.5 210.1 239.0 256.7 269.5 42.5 70.3 22.6 0.4 0.5 4.8 13.9 7.4 5.0

33.7 26.8

38.2 31.8

41.6 32.0

59.6 42.8

Housing 81.0 55.0

83.8 57.1

124.1 79.6

152.2 103.5

154.9 106.5

6.9

6.4

9.6

16.8

26.0

26.7

44.5

48.7

48.5

-0.2

1.2

3.0

2.2

1.5

1.8

Consumer Prices 1.9 1.6

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F lo r i d a S u m m a r y T ables Table 2. Quarterly Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida* 2014Q4

2015Q1

2015Q2

2015Q3

2015Q4

Personal Income (Bil. $)

866.0

877.8

886.0

895.2

906.3

Florida.(%Ch Year ago) U.S.(%Ch Year ago) Personal Income (Bil. 2005$) Florida.(%Ch Year ago)

4.5 4.6 791.4 3.0

5.1 4.7 801.4 3.8

4.3 4.0 808.2 3.5

4.2 4.0 815.1 3.6

4.7 4.3 824.0 4.1

U.S.(%Ch Year ago) Disp. Income (Bil. 2005$) Florida.(%Ch Year ago) U.S.(%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch Year ago)

2016Q1

2016Q2

2016Q3

Personal Income and GSP 922.7 935.7 949.7 5.1 4.4 836.2 4.3

5.6 4.8 845.5 4.6

6.1 5.1 855.1 4.9

2016Q4

2017Q1

2017Q2

2017Q3

2017Q4

965.7

982.5

996.9

1010.0

1022.5

6.5 5.4 865.9 5.1

6.5 5.5 877.8 5.0

6.5 5.6 887.6 5.0

6.4 5.5 896.3 4.8

5.9 5.3 904.7 4.5

2.9

3.1

2.8

3.2

3.4

3.7

3.8

3.9

4.0

3.9

3.7

711.8 2.7 2.6 856.5

719.7 3.6 2.7 866.0

724.9 3.0 2.2 875.2

731.2 3.1 2.3 885.2

738.6 3.8 2.9 895.0

749.3 4.1 3.1 906.4

757.7 4.5 3.5 917.6

767.2 4.9 3.9 929.7

777.4 5.2 4.2 942.9

786.4 4.9 4.1 954.9

795.8 5.0 4.2 966.5

804.4 4.8 4.1 977.9

812.8 4.6 3.9 989.9

4.6

5.8

4.9

4.6

4.5

4.7

4.9

5.0

5.4

5.3

5.2

5.0

783.6

788.0

792.7

798.2

803.9

809.9

816.2

823.0

830.7

836.9

843.0

848.7

855.1

(%Ch Year ago)

2.8

3.6

3.0

2.7

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.1

3.3

3.1

2.9

Employment

3.5

3.1

2.6

2.9

2.6

2.1

1.9

1.8

1.9

1.8

Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

3.2 6.2 6.0

2.9 6.0 5.9

2.4 6.1 6.0

2.6 6.1 6.0

2.5 6.1 6.0

2.2 6.1 6.0

2.0 6.1 6.0

1.8 6.1 5.9

1.8 6.0 5.8

1.8 6.0 5.7

1.7 6.0 5.7

GSP (Bil. 2005$)

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change Year Ago)

NonFarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change Year Ago) Total Nonfarm U.S. Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing

1.9 2.7 3.3 8.3

1.8 2.5 2.3 8.4

1.7 2.3 0.5 9.0

1.5 2.1 -0.3 10.4

1.3 2.0 -1.1 11.4

1.3 2.1 -1.7 12.1

1.3 2.0 -2.0 12.6

1.4 2.0 -1.7 12.3

1.5 2.1 -1.4 12.4

1.4 2.1 -0.9 11.7

1.4 2.0 -0.5 10.4

1.2 1.9 -0.1 8.8

1.1 1.6 0.1 6.7

1.5

0.9

1.4

0.9

0.3

0.0

-0.5

-0.4

-0.5

-0.4

-0.5

-0.6

-1.0 2.7 4.1 3.5

-0.8 1.6 4.3 2.2

0.0 2.0 4.2 2.0

-0.3 1.4 3.8 2.3

-0.8 0.8 3.7 2.5

-1.0 0.4 3.4 2.7

-1.2 -0.2 3.9 2.8

-1.1 0.0 4.0 2.7

-1.0 -0.2 4.0 2.8

-0.9 -0.2 4.0 2.8

-0.8 -0.2 3.7 2.6

-0.6 -0.4 3.4 2.6

-0.5 -0.6 3.2 2.5

Retail Trade

2.1

2.2

1.2

0.7

0.2

0.0

Financial Activities Prof. and Business Services Edu & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality

2.2 4.0 2.6 3.2

1.6 3.4 2.9 3.0

1.1 3.6 2.8 1.9

0.7 3.4 2.5 1.9

0.2 3.1 2.1 1.9

0.3 3.3 2.3 1.6

0.0 0.5 3.1 2.0 1.2

-0.3 0.6 3.3 2.2 0.8

-0.3 0.7 3.8 2.8 0.5

-0.5 0.3 4.1 2.4 0.5

-0.4 -0.2 4.0 2.0 1.0

-0.4 -0.8 3.5 1.7 1.5

-0.3 -1.2 2.8 1.3 1.9

3.1 -0.5 0.4

0.7 0.2 0.5

-0.2 -0.4 0.5

0.5 -0.8 0.4

0.5 -0.4 0.6

2.1 -0.5 0.6

1.6 -0.9 0.6

0.3 -1.0 0.7

-0.5 -1.0 0.8

0.2 -1.1 1.0

1.0 -1.0 1.2

1.1 -1.1 1.3

1.0 -1.3 1.6

Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade

Information Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't.

Population and Migration Population (thous) (%Ch Year ago) Net Migration (thous) (%Ch Year ago)

19,912.1 19,979.2 20,047.6 20,117.6 20,189.1 20,262.1 20,336.5 20,412.5 20,490.2 20,569.5 20,649.6 20,730.1 20,811.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 56.0 58.1 59.1 60.3 61.4 62.6 63.5 64.7 65.9 67.1 67.3 67.5 67.7 11.5 15.8 17.9 12.1 9.7 7.6 7.4 7.3 7.4 7.3 6.0 4.2 2.7 Housing

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous) Housing Starts Single Family (thous) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

93.8 62.3 31.5

106.1 69.1 37.0

120.2 75.2 45.1

131.3 83.8 47.5

138.8 90.3 48.6

2.3

2.2

1.4

1.1

145.4 96.6 48.8

150.2 101.4 48.9

154.8 106.2 48.6

158.5 110.0 48.5

157.8 109.2 48.7

154.2 106.4 47.8

153.9 105.4 48.6

153.7 104.9 48.8

1.8

1.7

1.8

Consumer Prices (%Ch Year ago) *Quarterly at an annual rate

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2014

1.3

1.5

F lo r i d a S u m m a r y T ables Table 3. Employment Quarterly*

2014Q4

2015Q1

2015Q2

2015Q3

2015Q4

2016Q1

2016Q2

2016Q3

2016Q4

2017Q1

2017Q2

2017Q3

2017Q4

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

7,876.7

7,912.8

7,957.3

8,000.2

8,037.9

8,077.4

8,116.7

8,160.2

8,209.8

8,246.4

8,282.0

8,313.7

8,344.2

Manufacturing

330.3

331.2

332.0

331.5

331.3

331.1

330.4

330.2

329.8

329.6

329.2

328.7

327.9

Durable Goods

224.3

225.2

226.1

225.9

226.1

226.2

225.7

225.8

225.7

225.6

225.3

224.9

224.2

Wood Products

11.4

11.5

11.6

11.5

11.4

11.5

11.4

11.3

11.2

Computer & Electronics

39.7

39.4

39.1

38.8

38.6

38.5

38.4

38.3

Transportation Equipment

39.8

40.1

39.9

39.6

39.2

38.7

38.3

38.0

37.9

37.8

37.6

106.0

105.9

105.6

105.2

104.9

104.7

104.4

104.1

104.0

103.9

103.7

103.6

28.1

28.2

28.1

28.0

27.9

28.0

7,546.5

7,581.7

7,625.2

7,668.7

7,706.6

7,746.3

7,786.3

7,829.9

7,880.0

7,916.8

7,952.8

7,985.0

8,016.3

5.8

5.7

Construction

417.0

426.4

436.8

450.5

464.8

478.0

491.8

506.1

522.4

533.7

543.0

550.7

557.2

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

260.8

263.8

265.6

267.8

270.4

272.8

275.9

278.5

281.2

283.8

286.0

288.1

290.2

Wholesale Trade

348.0

349.9

351.1

352.3

353.8

355.0

356.1

357.1

358.2

358.9

359.5

360.8

362.1

1,045.6

1,047.2

1,046.4

1,048.7

1,048.2

1,047.1

1,046.1

1,045.7

1,044.8

1,042.2

1,041.5

1,041.8

1,041.9

138.3

135.4

135.5

137.5

139.0

138.3

137.7

138.0

138.3

138.5

139.1

139.5

139.7

Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

Retail Trade Information Prof. & Bus. Services

1,179.0

1,186.5

1,197.9

1,207.5

1,215.7

1,225.1

1,235.0

1,246.9

1,261.7

1,275.2

1,285.0

1,291.1

1,297.2

Admin. & Support

589.1

592.1

599.5

604.9

608.6

615.5

622.8

632.8

644.9

658.0

666.6

672.4

678.2

Prof. Sci & Tech

496.2

500.2

503.9

507.7

512.0

514.4

516.7

518.4

520.9

521.2

522.1

522.3

522.4

93.8

94.3

94.5

94.9

95.0

95.2

95.5

95.7

95.9

96.1

96.3

96.4

96.6

Financial Activities

527.8

528.8

528.9

529.0

530.3

531.5

532.2

532.6

532.0

530.4

528.2

526.2

Real Estate & Rent

172.8

173.6

174.3

175.1

175.9

177.1

178.3

179.5

180.7

181.5

182.1

182.5

182.9

Fin. & Insurance

355.0

355.2

354.6

353.8

353.1

353.3

352.7

351.9

350.5

348.3

345.8

343.3

1,164.6

1,170.6

1,182.7

1,187.2

1,189.5

1,197.2

1,206.5

1,213.5

1,222.9

1,225.5

1,230.0

1,233.9

1,238.4

150.2

149.9

149.5

149.2

149.0

149.1

149.2

149.3

149.6

149.7

149.6

149.5

149.2

Health Services

1,014.4

1,020.6

1,033.2

1,038.0

1,040.4

1,048.2

1,057.3

1,064.2

1,073.3

1,075.8

1,080.4

1,084.4

1,089.2

Leisure & Hospitality

1,084.4

1,090.8

1,095.4

1,100.6

1,105.4

1,108.7

1,108.1

1,109.9

1,111.0

1,113.9

1,119.2

1,126.0

1,132.5

311.4

312.1

312.7

313.3

313.9

315.0

316.2

317.6

319.1

320.7

322.2

323.6

325.1

1,079.7

1,080.6

1,081.9

1,083.0

1,084.6

1,085.6

1,086.8

1,088.8

1,090.5

1,093.6

1,096.8

1,100.2

1,103.8

Federal Gov't.

131.3

131.2

131.1

130.8

130.6

130.1

129.8

129.5

129.2

128.8

128.3

127.8

State & Local Gov't

948.5

949.3

950.7

951.9

953.9

955.0

956.7

959.0

961.0

964.4

968.0

971.9

976.0

Mgmt. of Co.

Edu. & Health Service Education Services

Other Services Government

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F lo r i d a S u m m a r y T ables Table 4. Employment Annual

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

7,230.6

7,172.3

7,252.3

7,396.7

7,580.1

7,801.6

7,977.1

8,141.0

8,296.6

Manufacturing

324.0

309.1

312.5

317.4

322.0

328.7

331.5

330.4

328.8

Durable Goods

214.5

203.6

206.2

209.9

215.0

222.5

225.8

225.9

225.0

9.1

8.4

8.6

8.8

10.4

11.4

11.5

11.3

Computer & Electronics

44.7

43.0

42.5

40.9

39.8

39.0

38.5

38.3

Transportation Equipment

34.9

33.8

34.2

35.4

36.6

38.8

39.9

38.6

37.8

109.5

105.5

106.3

107.5

107.0

106.2

105.7

104.5

103.8

27.9

27.5

28.7

29.2

28.3

28.1

28.0

6,906.6

6,863.3

6,939.7

7,079.3

7,258.2

7,472.9

7,645.6

7,810.6

7,967.7

5.5

5.4

5.7

5.6

5.7

5.8

5.7

Construction

396.7

351.1

335.4

341.9

367.7

404.8

444.6

499.6

546.2

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

231.8

227.1

235.4

240.6

247.2

256.7

266.9

277.1

287.0

Wholesale Trade

317.9

307.4

312.6

325.6

336.4

345.1

351.8

356.6

360.3

Retail Trade

932.3

934.0

955.3

978.3

1,005.4

1,036.5

1,047.6

1,045.9

1,041.9

Information

143.8

137.1

135.7

133.6

133.9

136.4

136.9

138.1

139.2

Prof. & Bus. Services

993.2

1,005.4

1,035.8

1,074.3

1,117.4

1,162.7

1,201.9

1,242.2

1,287.1

Admin. & Support

481.8

493.8

516.6

537.9

558.4

580.6

601.3

629.0

668.8

Prof. Sci & Tech

431.5

432.5

437.9

451.0

468.1

489.0

506.0

517.6

522.0

80.0

79.1

81.4

85.4

90.9

93.0

94.7

95.6

96.4

Financial Activities

487.4

477.9

486.4

499.4

512.8

524.1

528.9

531.7

529.2

Real Estate & Rent

154.9

150.4

153.0

160.0

165.7

171.4

174.7

178.9

182.2

Fin. & Insurance

332.4

327.5

333.4

339.4

347.1

352.6

354.2

352.8

346.9

1,050.8

1,070.7

1,091.2

1,109.5

1,127.9

1,152.7

1,182.5

1,210.0

1,231.9

Education Services

127.6

134.6

136.8

139.6

142.7

148.0

149.4

149.3

149.5

Health Services

923.2

936.1

954.5

969.9

985.2

1,004.7

1,033.1

1,060.7

1,082.4

Leisure & Hospitality

926.9

931.2

957.2

997.5

1,036.4

1,074.8

1,098.1

1,109.4

1,122.9

Other Services

301.1

297.3

295.7

301.6

306.4

310.9

313.0

317.0

322.9

1,114.8

1,112.8

1,093.5

1,079.1

1,076.4

1,078.3

1,082.5

1,087.9

1,098.6

Federal Gov't.

132.7

142.2

134.0

132.8

132.2

131.5

131.1

130.0

128.5

State & Local Gov't

982.2

970.6

959.6

946.3

944.3

946.8

951.4

957.9

970.1

Wood Products

Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

Mgmt. of Co.

Edu. & Health Service

Government

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2014

F lo r i d a S u m m a r y T ables Table 5. Personal Income-Quarterly*

2014Q4

2015Q1

2015Q2

2015Q3

2015Q4

2016Q1

2016Q2

2016Q3

2016Q4

2017Q1

2017Q2

2017Q3

2017Q4

Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

866.0

877.8

886.0

895.2

906.3

922.7

935.7

949.7

965.7

982.5

996.9

1010.0

1022.5

Wages & Salaries

386.1

390.2

395.0

399.8

405.2

410.7

416.1

421.7

427.8

433.5

439.0

444.4

450.0

Other Labor Income

85.0

86.0

86.7

87.7

88.8

90.4

91.4

92.6

94.0

95.6

96.9

98.2

99.4

Nonfarm

50.0

50.6

51.4

51.9

52.5

53.2

54.0

54.4

54.9

55.4

56.1

56.3

56.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.2

1.3

Property Income

230.9

233.5

235.0

237.0

240.2

245.0

250.3

256.4

263.4

270.1

276.3

281.5

285.5

Transfer Payments

Farm

172.7

177.7

178.9

180.2

181.8

187.4

188.6

190.0

191.8

195.7

197.5

199.2

201.1

Social Insurance

62.1

63.6

64.3

65.0

65.7

67.7

68.4

69.2

70.2

71.8

72.7

73.5

74.4

Personal Income

729.2

737.3

742.7

747.6

755.2

765.6

773.8

782.5

792.6

803.5

812.1

819.7

826.7

Wages & Salaries

Billions 2005 $

325.1

327.8

331.1

333.9

337.6

340.8

344.1

347.5

351.1

354.5

357.6

360.7

363.8

Other Labor Income

71.6

72.2

72.7

73.2

74.0

75.0

75.6

76.3

77.1

78.2

78.9

79.7

80.4

Nonfarm

42.1

42.5

43.1

43.4

43.7

44.2

44.6

44.8

45.1

45.3

45.7

46.0

Farm

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.0

Property Income

194.4

196.1

197.0

197.9

200.2

203.3

207.0

211.3

216.2

220.9

225.1

228.5

230.8

Transfer Payments

145.5

149.3

150.0

150.5

151.4

155.5

155.9

156.6

157.4

160.1

160.9

161.7

162.6

52.3

53.4

53.9

54.2

54.8

56.1

56.5

57.0

57.6

58.7

59.2

59.7

60.1

Social Insurance

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

1220.1

1231.7

1241.9

1248.6

1255.3

1267.1

1276.8

1278.3

1289.7

1305.7

1320.8

1334.0

1336.2

Retail Sales (Billions $)

301.5

304.0

306.0

309.7

312.7

317.9

321.4

325.5

329.9

333.1

337.0

340.4

343.7

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2005$)

253.9

255.3

256.5

258.7

260.5

263.8

265.8

268.2

270.7

272.4

274.5

276.2

277.8

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F lo r i d a S u m m a r y T ables Table 6. Personal Income-Annual

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

696.5

725.4

761.3

792.3

815.4

852.5

891.3

943.5

1003.0

Wages & Salaries

320.8

322.9

332.7

346.6

360.0

378.8

397.6

419.1

441.7

Other Labor Income

73.2

76.4

75.1

77.9

80.7

83.8

87.3

92.1

97.5

Nonfarm

36.8

38.3

40.8

43.6

46.4

49.0

51.6

54.1

56.2

0.7

0.9

1.1

1.6

1.0

1.1

1.3

Property Income

175.1

187.2

204.1

213.6

219.5

228.0

236.4

253.8

278.4

Transfer Payments

138.0

148.6

152.3

156.2

162.8

170.5

179.6

189.4

198.4

50.0

50.7

46.8

48.9

57.6

60.8

64.7

68.9

73.1

Farm

Social Insurance

Billions 2005 $ Personal Income

696.5

713.6

731.0

746.9

759.7

752.2

745.7

778.6

815.5

Wages & Salaries

320.8

317.7

319.4

326.8

335.4

334.2

332.6

345.9

359.2

Other Labor Income

73.2

75.2

72.1

73.5

75.1

73.9

73.0

76.0

79.3

Nonfarm

36.8

37.6

39.2

41.1

43.2

44.7

45.7

0.7

0.9

1.1

1.5

0.9

1.1

1.0

Property Income

175.1

184.1

196.0

201.4

204.5

201.1

197.8

209.4

226.3

Transfer Payments

138.0

146.1

146.2

147.2

151.7

150.4

150.3

156.4

161.3

50.0

49.9

45.0

46.1

53.7

54.1

56.8

59.4

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

707.0

810.5

879.8

1006.9

1101.0

1207.2

1244.4

1278.0

1324.2

Retail Sales (Billions $)

227.2

243.0

258.2

271.2

283.6

296.6

308.1

323.7

338.5

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2005$)

227.2

239.0

247.9

255.7

264.3

261.7

257.8

267.1

275.3

Farm

Social Insurance

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2014

F lo r i d a C ha r ts

Florida & U.S. Unemployment Rate 14.0%

(%)

12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 FL Unemployment Rate U.S. Unemployment Rate

Florida Construction Employment 700.0

(Thousands)

600.0 500.0 400.0 300.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F lo r i d a C ha r ts

Florida Consumer Price Index (% change year ago)

6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 FL CPI

Florida Education & Health Services Employment 1250.0 1200.0 1150.0 1100.0 1050.0 1000.0 950.0 900.0 850.0 800.0

(Thousands)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2014

F lo r i d a C ha r ts

Florida Federal Government Employment 160.0

(Thousands)

150.0 140.0 130.0 120.0 110.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Florida Financial Activities Employment 560.0

(Thousands)

540.0 520.0 500.0 480.0 460.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F lo r i d a C ha r ts

Florida Gross State Product 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6%

(% change year ago)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 FL Gross State Product

Florida Housing Starts (thousands)

300.0 250.0

200.0

150.0

100.0

50.0

0.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Total Private Housing Starts 30 year Mortgage Rates

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2014

F lo r i d a C ha r ts

Florida Information Employment (Thousands)

190.0 180.0 170.0 160.0 150.0 140.0 130.0 120.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Florida Leisure & Hospitality Employment 1150.0

(Thousands)

1100.0 1050.0 1000.0 950.0 900.0 850.0 800.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F lo r i d a C ha r ts

Florida Manufacturing Employment (Thousands)

500.0 450.0 400.0 350.0 300.0 250.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

New Passenger Car & Light Truck Registrations 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50%

(% change year ago)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2014

F lo r i d a C ha r ts

Florida Employment 8400.0 8200.0 8000.0 7800.0 7600.0 7400.0 7200.0 7000.0 6800.0

(Thousands)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Wage & Salary Employment

Florida Personal Income 12%

(% change year ago)

9% 6% 3% 0% -3% -6% -9%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F lo r i d a C ha r ts

Florida Population (Thousands)

21000.0 20000.0 19000.0 18000.0 17000.0 16000.0 15000.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Florida Professional & Business Services Employment (Thousands)

1300.0 1200.0 1100.0 1000.0 900.0 800.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Florida Real Gross State Product (% change year ago)

10% 5% 0% -5% -10%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2014

F lo r i d a C ha r ts

Florida State & Local Government Employment (Thousands)

1050.0 1000.0 950.0 900.0 850.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Florida Trade, Transportation & Utilities Employment 1700.0

(Thousands)

1650.0 1600.0 1550.0 1500.0 1450.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Florida Unemployment Rate 14.0%

(percent)

12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Unemployment Rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Gove r no r s C ha r ts

Florida Real GDP (Millions $)

Crist’s Term in Office

820,000

Scott’s Term in Office

800,000 780,000 760,000 740,000 720,000 700,000 2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Florida Labor Force 9,700,000

Crist’s Term in Office

Scott’s Term in Office

9,600,000 9,500,000 9,400,000 9,300,000 9,200,000 9,100,000 9,000,000 2007

2008

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2014

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Gove r no r s C ha r ts

Median Sales Price Single-Family, Existing Homes

$260,000

Crist’s Term in Office

Scott’s Term in Office

$240,000 $220,000 $200,000 $180,000 $160,000 $140,000 $120,000 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Non-Farm Payroll Employment 8,200,000

Crist’s Term in Office

Scott’s Term in Office

8,000,000 7,800,000 7,600,000 7,400,000 7,200,000 7,000,000 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Gove r no r s C ha r ts

Realtor Sales

Single-Family, Existing Homes Crist’s Term in Office

24,000

Scott’s Term in Office

20,000

16,000

12,000

8,000

4,000

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Tax Revenue Gross Deposits (Millions $)

42,000

Crist’s Term in Office

Scott’s Term in Office

41,000 40,000 39,000 38,000 37,000 36,000 35,000 34,000 2007

2008

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2014

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Gove r no r s C ha r ts

Headline Unemployment Rate (U-3) (%)

Crist’s Term in Office

Scott’s Term in Office

11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

U-6 Unemployment Rate (%)

Crist’s Term in Office

Scott’s Term in Office

18 16 14 12 10 8 6 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F lo r i d a N e w s S u m m a r ies Fla. Gov. Rick Scott calls for review of new education standards, state tests • Gov. Rick Scott’s new education proposal invests more money into school safety, classroom technology and rewards for top teachers. • Scott proposes adding an additional $10 million to school-safety funding, and doubling the investment in digital learning initiatives to $80 million. • However, Scott’s plans may not be enough to sway voters after the $1.3 billion was cut in K-12 education funding. Source: Miami Herald, August 19, 2014 Florida universities need $45 million to offset drop in Bright Futures scholarships • Universities across the state, including Florida International and Florida Atlantic, say they will need an additional $45 million next year for financial aid to help “low-income students impacted by the loss of Bright Futures scholarships.” • A disproportionate share of those students are black or Hispanic, according to a new analysis. At FIU and FAU, more than 60 percent of freshmen who would have qualified in previous years did not meet last year’s eligibility requirements. • Prior to 2011-12, students who scored 970 or higher on their SATs could receive a scholarship. Now, students must earn a score of at least 1170. • Without these funds, retention and graduation rates are likely to fall as students come to grips with the financial implications of continuing their schooling. Source: Miami Herald, September 16, 2014 Uninsured rate remains unchanged in Florida • The rate of Floridians without health insurance stayed the same in 2013 from the previous year, according to figures released by the U.S. Census Bureau. • Twenty percent of Floridians lacked health insurance last year, down slightly from a rate of 20.1 percent in 2012. But the change was within the margin of error, rendering it insignificant. • Experts say Florida’s large number of small businesses and its concentration of tourism-oriented service workers has contributed to the state’s high rate of uninsured residents. The Census survey showed that 3.8 million of Florida’s 19.5 million residents were without health insurance. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, September 16, 2014

Florida Citrus Crop Headed to 50-Year Low • Florida citrus growers face another difficult and potentially unprofitable season if Kissimmee citrus consultant Elizabeth Steger’s prediction of just 89 million boxes of oranges in the 2014-15 season proves accurate. • The crop problem had arisen when a tree is infected by the bacterial disease citrus greening, which weakens the tree and eventually kills it. Greening has infected virtually all the state’s citrus trees since it first surfaced in 2005. • Industry officials fear this could lead to further contraction of the Florida citrus industry during the 2014-15 season, including juice processing plants closing and growers being forced out of business because they can’t make a profit. Source: Lakeland Ledger, August 14, 2014 All Aboard Florida creating political noise

• Gov. Rick Scott maintains that no state funding is headed to a proposed passenger rail line that would run along Florida’s East Coast. • All Aboard Florida has applied for a Federal Railroad Administration loan for the $2.5 billion service. • The concerns are financial, safety, and quality of life. The marine industry expects to be impacted as boaters are delayed due to drawbridges being lowered as many as 32 times a day for the trains, which will also tie up traffic in small downtown commercial centers.

• Meanwhile, opponents say that tourism and property values will drop due to the trains, which would create noise within wealthy gated communities near the tracks. Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, July 16, 2014 Florida’s unemployment rate up slightly in August

• The August jobless rate announced Friday was 6.3 percent, up slightly from 6.2 percent in July. • This is roughly the same rate that Florida has had most of the year, and it’s above the national unemployment rate of 6.1 percent.

• Gov. Rick Scott has made job creation the central theme of his re-election campaign and chose to point out that 23,000 private sector jobs were created in August rather than focusing on the slight uptick in the unemployment rate. Source: Tallahassee.com, September 19, 2014

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2014

O c t o b e r 2 0 14

METROS

FLORIDA FORECAST

Deltona – Da y tona B each – O r m on d B each

PROFILES

O U T L O O K S U MM A R I E S

The Deltona–Daytona–Ormond Beach MSA is comprised only of Volusia County. It is located on the east coast of Florida and is notable for special events that occur throughout the year such as Bike Week. It is home to NASCAR headquarters and the Daytona International Speedway which hosts popular races such as the Daytona 500.

The Deltona–Daytona–Ormond Beach Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show low levels of growth in most of the economic indicators measured in this forecast. Personal income is expected to average 4.8 percent growth, while the real per capita income level will average $31,500. Average annual wage will be the lowest level of the studied areas at $41,200. Average annual wage growth is expected to be moderate at 3.2 percent. Population growth will average 1.1 percent. Gross Metro Product will be at an average level of 13,326.04 million dollars.

QUICK FACTS:

• Population estimate of 494,593 as of the 2010 census (U.S. Census Bureau).

• Civilian labor force of 258,395 in August 2014 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

• An unemployment rate of 6.5% as of August 2014, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 16,850 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Volusia County Schools – 7,503 • Halifax Health – 4,709

• Florida Hospital Volusia-Flagler Market – 3,256 • County of Volusia – 3,341

• Daytona State College – 1,568

• Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University – 1,423 • Florida Health Care Plans, Inc. – 916 • Frontier Communications – 800

• Department of Transportation – 700 • Bert Fish Medical Center – 700

Source: Volusia County Department of Economic Development and Enterprise Florida

The employment growth rate is expected to average 1.9 percent each year. Unemployment will average 6.1 percent.

The Deltona MSA will experience the most growth in the Construction and Mining sector, with an average growth rate of 8.3 percent annually. The Professional and Business Services sector will see the second highest average growth in the Deltona MSA at 5.1 percent annually. The Other Services sector follows with an average annual growth rate of 1.6 percent. The Information sector is the only sector expected to experience a decline at -0.9 percent.

M E T R O N E W S S U MM A R I E S Area employers add nearly 7,500 jobs

• Volusia and Flagler county employers added 7,500 more workers to their payroll than they did in June 2012. The counties also saw 4,600 fewer unemployed workers than this time last year.

• However, unemployed rates in both counties rose, in part because of the start of summer break and the increased number of people seeking jobs. Flagler County’s unemployment increased to 8.8 percent in June, the second highest in the state, and Volusia’s unemployment rose to 6.1 percent. • By industry, professional and business services firms in Volusia County added 2,900 more workers than a year ago, while construction added 400 jobs, leisure & hospitality added 300, and manufacturers added 200. Source: Daytona Beach News-Journal, July 18, 2014

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2014

Deltona – Da y tona B each – O r m on d B each

Ameritech plans larger plant at Ormond airport business park • In December, Mooresville, North Carolinabased Ameritech Die & Mold will begin construction on an 18,000-square-foot manufacturing plant at the Ormond Beach Airport Park.

• The company currently operates a 10,000-square-foot plant in the business park but is ready to move into a bigger building. The new plant should be ready for occupancy in late spring or early summer 2015.

• The company, who currently employees 11 people, will plan to add 4 new workers with the new facility, and will receive about $26,000 in tax incentives from the city over a 5-year period. Source: Daytona Beach News-Journal, August 20, 2014 Flagler tourism revenue rises

• Flagler County collected $229,923 in tourism taxes from hotels, campgrounds, and vacation rental properties, an increase of 11.2 percent from July last year.

• This is the third straight month of doubledigit tourism revenue; May and June saw 31.77 percent and 16.57 percent year-over-year increases respectively. • As of July 31, Flagler County has collected $1,160,664 in 2014 bed-tax revenues, a 13.4 percent increase from the same period a year ago. Bed-tax collection is viewed as a health indicator of the local tourism industry.

• The median sales prices of $136,500 in Volusia also represented an increase—9.2% from a year ago.

• In Flagler County, 214 existing homes closed in August, a 13.8 increase from last year according to the Flagler County Association of Realtors. The median sales price was $157,000, an 8.3 percent increase from $145,000 a year ago.

• Nationally, sales of single-family homes dropped 4.9 percent. Source: Daytona Beach News-Journal, September 22, 2014 Developer begins work on 144-unit student housing complex near Embry-Riddle • Ambling University Development Group LLC has begun clearing land for a new apartment complex at 1479 Shady Place. The company completed the $1.7 million purchase of the 9-acre lot from Lohman Apartments LLC on September 8. • The 4-building, 144-unit complex is expected to have $12.4 million in construction costs according to filings with the county.

• The complex plans to primarily serve students at Embry-Riddle University. Amenities will include a cottage-style clubhouse, game room, fitness center, coffee bar, and resort-style pool. Source: Daytona Beach News-Journal, September 25, 2014

Source: Daytona Beach News-Journal, September 4, 2014 Home Sales, prices rise in August

• According to Florida Realtors, 822 single-family homes closed in Volusia County in August, a 13.2 percent increase from August 2013. This marks the ninth straight month of year-overyear sales increases.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Deltona â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Da y tona B each â&#x20AC;&#x201C; O r m on d B each Deltona - Daytona Beach - Ormond Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

Florida & Deltona-Daytona Beach Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 FL Unemployment Rate Deltona Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Deltona Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2014

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Gross Metro Product 14500.0 14000.0 13500.0 13000.0 12500.0 12000.0 11500.0 11000.0 10500.0

(Millions 2000 $)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Gross Metro Product

Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Personal Income

Deltona-Daytona Beach Payroll Employment 175.0 170.0 165.0 160.0 155.0 150.0 145.0 140.0

0.8

8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0%

(percent change year ago)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Personal Income

Deltona – Da y tona B each – O r m on d B each

Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

October 2014

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

15.6 -5.6 5.6 9.9 14.4 -5.5 31.4 29.0 35.7 -0.7

16.2 3.8 5.7 10.5 14.7 2.1 32.6 29.6 36.6 2.5

16.4 1.8 5.7 10.7 14.6 -0.6 33.2 29.5 36.7 0.4

17.1 4.1 5.9 11.2 14.9 2.2 34.4 29.9 37.7 2.9

17.5 2.3 6.1 11.4 15.1 1.1 34.9 30.0 38.3 1.4

18.2 4.1 6.4 11.9 15.4 2.5 36.0 30.5 39.3 2.7

18.9 3.9 6.6 12.3 15.8 2.5 37.1 31.0 40.3 2.5

19.9 5.4 7.0 12.9 16.5 4.0 38.5 31.8 41.8 3.7

21.1 6.0 7.4 13.8 17.2 4.4 40.3 32.8 43.4 3.9

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 156.3 153.6 154.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.8 -1.7 0.4 Manufacturing 7.8 7.5 8.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -14.0 -3.9 8.5 Nonmanufacturing 148.4 146.0 146.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.3 -1.6 0.0 Construction & Mining 8.9 7.9 7.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -22.0 -11.6 -6.3 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 30.1 30.0 30.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -7.3 -0.5 0.2 Wholesale Trade 4.9 4.7 4.8 Retail Trade 23.2 23.3 23.4 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 2.1 1.9 1.8 Information 2.3 2.0 2.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -11.9 -10.9 -1.6 Financial Activities 7.1 7.2 7.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -7.8 0.7 2.2 Prof & Business Services 16.0 15.4 15.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.2 -3.3 1.6 Educ & Health Services 31.5 31.7 32.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.2 0.6 1.9 Leisure & Hospitality 21.6 21.5 22.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.7 -0.4 2.9 Other Services 8.2 7.9 7.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.6 -3.7 -6.3 Federal Government 1.4 1.5 1.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.3 5.8 -15.9 State & Local Government 21.3 20.9 20.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.9 -1.7 -2.0

155.3 0.7 8.4 3.4 146.9 0.6 7.6 2.6 30.2 0.6 4.7 23.6 1.9 2.0 -1.3 7.6 3.9 16.3 4.0 32.3 0.2 22.7 2.4 7.4 -0.8 1.1 -11.1 19.7 -3.9

157.2 1.3 9.0 6.9 148.2 0.9 8.2 7.6 30.0 -0.5 4.3 23.7 2.0 1.8 -7.6 7.7 1.2 17.2 5.3 32.7 1.3 23.1 1.8 7.4 -0.1 1.1 -3.0 19.1 -3.3

160.6 2.1 9.4 4.3 151.2 2.0 8.6 5.0 30.3 0.9 4.2 24.1 2.0 1.8 -3.2 7.7 0.5 18.6 8.2 32.9 0.5 23.6 2.2 7.5 2.7 1.1 0.8 19.1 0.3

163.9 2.1 9.5 1.1 154.4 2.1 9.3 8.2 30.7 1.4 4.3 24.3 2.1 1.8 2.0 7.8 0.9 19.3 4.0 33.7 2.4 23.8 1.0 7.6 1.1 1.1 0.8 19.2 0.5

166.7 1.7 9.5 -0.1 157.2 1.8 10.3 11.1 31.0 0.9 4.5 24.3 2.2 1.7 -3.5 7.8 0.1 20.2 4.6 34.1 1.2 23.9 0.2 7.7 1.0 1.1 -0.6 19.3 0.5

169.2 1.5 9.5 -0.1 159.8 1.6 11.2 9.1 31.2 0.6 4.6 24.2 2.2 1.8 1.2 7.7 -1.3 20.9 3.5 34.5 1.2 23.9 0.3 7.8 1.6 1.1 -0.9 19.5 1.1

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

497.5 0.5 252.1 0.0 8.9 765.9 748.9 17

501.4 0.8 251.8 -0.1 7.3 1441.0 1220.0 221

505.7 0.8 256.3 1.8 6.1 1419.0 1307.6 111

510.6 1.0 262.0 2.2 6.0 2745.1 2021.4 724

517.5 1.3 266.6 1.7 6.2 4000.3 3008.6 992

524.8 1.4 270.8 1.6 6.2 4075.4 3092.1 983

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

495.1 -0.4 252.4 -0.8 10.6 662.4 602.3 60

495.5 0.1 252.0 -0.2 11.5 719.2 658.9 60

494.9 -0.1 252.1 0.0 10.6 1020.6 504.7 516

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Deltona – Da y tona B each – O r m on d B each

Quarterly Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

October 2014

2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

18.4 4.3 6.4 12

18.5 4 6.5 12

18.7 4.7 6.5 12.2

18.8 3.7 6.6 12.2

19 3.1 6.7 12.3

19.2 4 6.8 12.4

19.5 4.5 6.9 12.7

19.8 5.1 7 12.8

20.1 5.8 7.1 13

20.4 6.3 7.2 13.2

20.7 6.3 7.2 13.5

21 6.3 7.3 13.7

21.3 6 7.4 13.8

21.5 5.4 7.5 14

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

15.6 2.6

15.5 2.2

15.7 3

15.8 2.3

15.8 1.9

16 2.9

16.2 3.2

16.4 3.7

16.5 4.3

16.7 4.7

17 4.7

17.1 4.7

17.3 4.4

17.4 3.8

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

36.4 30.7

36.4 30.6

36.8 30.9

36.9 31

37.1 31

37.4 31.2

37.9 31.5

38.3 31.7

38.7 31.9

39.2 32.2

39.7 32.5

40.2 32.7

40.5 32.8

40.8 33

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

39.6 3.4

39.8 3.4

39.9 3.3

40.1 2.2

40.4 2

40.8 2.5

41.2 3.1

41.6 3.6

42 4

42.4 4

42.8 3.9

43.2 3.9

43.6 3.9

44 3.8

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

161.1 2.2

162.1 2

162.8 2.4

163.7 2.2

164.3 2

164.8 1.7

165.5 1.7

166.2 1.5

167.1 1.7

167.8 1.8

168.4 1.8

169 1.7

169.5 1.5

170 1.3

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

9.4 3.5

9.5 2.8

9.5 1.4

9.5 1.2

9.5 0.4

9.5 0.1

9.5 -0.3

9.5 -0.2

9.5 -0.1

9.5 0.1

9.5 -0.1

9.4 -0.4

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

151.7 2.1

152.6 2

153.3 2.4

154.2 2.3

154.8 2

155.3 1.8

156 1.8

156.8 1.7

157.6 1.8

158.3 1.9

158.9 1.9

159.5 1.8

160 1.6

160.5 1.4

8.6 2.7

8.8 5.7

9 6.5

9.1 7.8

9.4 9.3

9.6 9

9.8 9.8

10.1 10.9

10.5 11.7

10.8 11.9

11 11.9

11.2 10.5

11.3 8.2

11.4 6.1

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

30.4 1.2

30.5 0.4

30.6 1.6

30.8 1.3

30.9 1

31 1

31 0.8

31 0.6

31.1 0.5

31.2 0.6

31.3 0.9

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

4.2 24.2 2

4.2 24.3 2.1

4.2 24.4 2.1

4.3 24.3 2.1

4.4 24.3 2.1

4.4 24.3 2.2

4.5 24.3 2.2

4.6 24.2 2.2

4.6 24.2 2.3

4.7 24.1 2.3

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.8 -1.8

1.8 1.5

1.8 1

1.8 3.7

1.8 3.4

1.8 0

1.8 -1.3

1.7 -4.1

1.7 -4.8

1.7 -3.7

1.8 -0.5

1.8 1.6

1.8 1.9

1.8 1.7

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.7 1.1

7.8 1.1

7.8 1.4

7.8 1.3

7.8 0.6

7.8 0.1

7.8 0.2

7.8 0.1

7.8 0

7.8 -0.4

7.7 -1.1

7.7 -1.6

7.6 -2.2

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

18.8 8.6

18.8 5.8

19 4.1

19.2 3.8

19.5 3.7

19.6 4.2

19.9 4.7

20.1 4.5

20.3 4.5

20.6 4.7

20.8 4.5

20.9 4.1

21 3.2

21.1 2.3

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

33.2 0.4

33.4 2.4

33.6 4.3

33.8 2.9

33.8 1.9

33.6 0.7

33.8 0.7

34 0.6

34.2 1.3

34.4 2.3

34.4 1.9

34.5 1.5

34.6 1.1

34.7 0.6

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

23.6 1.3

23.6 0.4

23.7 0.3

23.8 1.2

23.9 1.4

23.9 1.3

24 1.2

23.9 0.5

23.8 -0.2

23.8 -0.8

23.8 -0.7

23.9 -0.1

24 0.6

24.1 1.4

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

7.6 2.9

7.6 2

7.6 1.5

7.6 1

7.7 1

7.7 0.7

7.7 0.8

7.7 1

7.8 1.4

7.8 1.7

7.8 1.6

7.9 1.5

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.1 1.7

1.1 1

1.1 1.3

1.1 0.6

1.1 0.3

1.1 1

1.1 0.2

1.1 -0.7

1.1 -0.9

1.1 -0.8

1.1 -1

1.1 -1.1

19.2 1.5

19.2 1

19.2 0.5

19.2 0.3

19.3 0.3

19.3 0.4

19.3 0.5

19.4 0.6

19.5 0.8

19.5 1

19.6 1.1

19.6 1.4

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

506.2 0.8

507.2 0.8

508.4 0.8

509.7 0.9

511.3 1

513 1.1

514.7 1.2

516.5 1.3

518.4 1.4

520.3 1.4

522.1 1.4

523.9 1.4

525.7 1.4

527.4 1.4

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

256.7 1.8

258.2 2.5

259.8 2.2

261.2 2

262.9 2.4

264.3 2.4

265.4 2.1

266 1.9

267 1.6

268.1 1.4

269.2 1.4

270.3 1.6

271.3 1.6

272.4 1.6

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.9

5.8

5.9

6.1

6.2

1257 1151 105

1617 1359 258

2096 1637 459

2530 1828 701

2972 2143 829

3382 2477 905

3724 2765 959

3970 2976 994

4100 3094 1005

4208 3200 1008

4149 3154 995

4052 3078 974

4045 3065 980

4056 3071 985

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2014

Gainesville

PROFILES

O U T L O O K S U MM A R I E S

The Gainesville MSA is comprised of Alachua and Gilchrist Counties and is located in the centralnorth portion of the state. This Metro is home to the University of Florida and the Florida Museum of Natural History, Florida’s official natural history museum.

The Gainesville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show varying strengths and weaknesses in the economic indicators. Personal income growth will see an average of 4.4 percent growth, the second lowest of the studied MSAs. Real per capita income level is expected to average $34,900. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.6 percent, the second highest of the twelve studied MSAs, while the average annual wage level will be at $46,400. Population growth will average the lowest of the studied areas at 0.4 percent annually. Gross Metro Product will be the second lowest of the studied MSAs at an average level of 10,467.22 million dollars. Gainesville will see an average employment growth rate of 1.0 percent annually, the lowest growth of the MSAs. The Gainesville MSA will, however, maintain the lowest average unemployment rate of the twelve studied, at 4.5 percent. The fastest growing sector in the area will be the Construction and Mining sector, with an average growth rate of 6.3 percent annually. This is followed by the Professional and Business Services sector with an average annual growth rate of 2.9 percent. The Information, Financial Activities, State & Local and Federal Government sectors will experience declines, with average annual growth rates of -0.7, -0.2, -0.1 and -2.0 percent, respectively.

QUICK FACTS:

• Metro population estimate of 266,369 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Alachua County population estimate of 247,418 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• Gilchrist County population estimate of 17,004 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 140,474 in August 2014 (Florida Research and Economic Database.

• An unemployment rate of 5.5% as of August 2014, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 7,788 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• University of Florida – 27,870 • UFHealth – 12,000

• Alachua County School Board – 4,200

• Veterans Affairs Medical Center – 3,500

M E T R O N E W S S U MM A R I E S

• Publix Supermarkets – 2,160

Gainesville-based SharpSpring being sold, will move into renovated Firestone building

• City of Gainesville – 2,270

• North Florida Regional Medical Center – 2,100 • Gator Dining Services – 1,200

• Nationwide Insurance Company – 950 • Wal-Mart Stores – 910

Source: Gainsville Area Chamber of Commerce

• SharpSpring, an internet marketing company based in Gainesville, announced that it is working on a deal to be acquired by SMTP of Nashua, New Hampshire.

• The company would remain in Gainesville as an independent subsidiary of SMTP. • SharpSpring expects to add 15 to 20 new employees over the next year, which is a substantial increase from the 25 that are currently working for the company. These jobs will be in the areas of marketing,

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Gainesville

technical account management, programming, developing, and more. Source: The Gainesville Sun, August 15, 2014 ‘Catastrophic’ problems force Jones Eastside to close • The breakfast business, Jones Eastside, has closed due to reported “catastrophic infrastructure problems,” as stated by the business website.

• Jones Eastside opened in 2006 and was open for breakfast and lunch. • The Jones B-side is the lunch and dinner complement to the Eastside, and is where all of the staff from Eastside have been moved.

• The owners of the company had announced at the opening of B-side that The Eastside was experiencing problems with the climate control system, kitchen equipment, and building plumbing. Source: The Gainesville Sun, July 14, 2014 Grandy’s to close Gainesville location Aug. 21

• After 29 years of business, Grandy’s closed on August 21st.

• The restaurant closed due to lack of resources to complete the required remodeling needed to maintain the old building.

• Although the restaurant has over 50 locations outside of Florida, the Gainesville location was the last within Florida. • PDQ , a fast and casual chicken chain based in Tampa will be replacing the restaurant. Source: The Gainesville Sun, August 12, 2014 Clothing store opens in mall as downtown cupcake, clothing stores close • A Charlotte Russe clothing store is opening in The Oaks Mall. • The clothing store is aimed towards women in their teens and early 20’s, providing trendy, 40

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2014

affordable clothes and accessories. The company is headquartered in San Francisco and has over 500 stores located throughout the U.S. and Puerto Rico.

• Sarkara Sweets, a cupcake store, and Ingenue Avenue, a clothing store are closing business due to lack of financial resources.

• Business had been dwindling for some time for these retailers, and this combined with higher electricity rates and insurance costs have made business difficult. Source: The Gainesville Sun, September 12, 2014 Piesanos opens third Gainesville location; Krystal on 13th St. closes • Piesanos Stone Fired Pizza opened its third Gainesville location in August. The new restaurant is located in the Holiday Inn building at University Avenue, replacing the former tenant, Beef ‘O’ Brady’s, which closed in January.

• The restaurant underwent a complete remodel that started in April. Joel Mills, co-owner of the restaurant, expressed that business following the opening was strong and exceeded expectations. • Krystal, in contrast, is experiencing trouble in the Gainesville area. The fast-food burger chain closed its location on NW 13th St. in August, leaving only one location left in Gainesville. Source: The Gainesville Sun, August 22, 2014

Gainesville Gainesville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

Florida & Gainesville Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

1.5

11000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

10500.0 10000.0

8.0%

9500.0

6.0%

9000.0 8500.0

4.0%

8000.0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 FL Unemployment Rate Gainesville Unemployment Rate

7500.0

(Thousands)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Gainesville Payroll Employment

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Gross Metro Product

Gainesville Real Personal Income

Gainesville Payroll Employment 136.0 134.0 132.0 130.0 128.0 126.0 124.0 122.0 120.0

2.5

Gainesville Real Gross Metro Product

10.0%

2.0%

12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

(percent change year ago)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Gainesville

Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL

October 2014

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

9.0 -3.6 5.2 3.8 8.3 -3.5 34.1 31.5 40.3 3.0

9.4 4.4 5.2 4.2 8.5 2.7 35.4 32.1 40.8 1.3

9.8 4.6 5.3 4.6 8.7 2.2 36.8 32.6 41.4 1.4

10.2 3.9 5.4 4.8 8.9 2.0 38.0 33.0 42.1 1.8

10.4 1.7 5.5 4.9 8.9 0.6 38.4 33.0 42.6 1.1

10.8 3.8 5.8 5.0 9.1 2.2 39.6 33.6 44.0 3.4

11.2 3.6 6.0 5.1 9.3 2.2 40.9 34.2 45.4 3.2

11.7 4.9 6.3 5.4 9.7 3.5 42.7 35.3 47.1 3.7

12.3 5.4 6.6 5.7 10.0 3.9 44.8 36.4 49.0 4.0

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 127.4 126.7 126.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.4 -0.6 0.0 Manufacturing 4.7 4.4 4.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -16.0 -5.7 -0.9 Nonmanufacturing 122.7 122.2 122.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.9 -0.4 0.1 Construction & Mining 4.6 4.2 3.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -18.3 -9.0 -8.7 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 18.2 17.9 18.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.8 -1.6 1.0 Wholesale Trade 2.4 2.3 2.4 Retail Trade 13.3 13.2 13.4 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 2.4 2.3 2.3 Information 1.6 1.5 1.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -13.8 -6.7 -0.5 Financial Activities 6.0 6.0 6.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.1 -0.4 2.0 Prof & Business Services 10.3 10.4 10.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.9 0.6 3.7 Educ & Health Services 21.9 22.1 22.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.1 0.7 1.1 Leisure & Hospitality 13.6 13.2 13.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -7.1 -3.0 0.8 Other Services 4.2 4.1 4.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.5 -2.8 0.7 Federal Government 4.3 4.7 4.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.4 10.9 -6.1 State & Local Government 37.9 38.1 37.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.5 0.6 -0.8

128.1 1.1 4.4 0.4 123.7 1.1 4.3 10.5 18.2 0.6 2.5 13.3 2.4 1.5 -2.9 6.3 3.6 11.3 4.5 22.9 2.2 13.4 0.7 4.1 -1.6 4.4 -1.2 37.5 -0.7

128.9 0.6 4.5 1.5 124.4 0.6 4.3 1.2 18.3 0.6 2.6 13.1 2.5 1.5 1.7 6.2 -1.7 11.4 1.1 23.2 1.4 13.8 2.6 4.0 -0.4 4.4 0.6 37.4 -0.4

130.3 1.1 4.6 2.2 125.8 1.1 4.1 -4.1 18.6 1.7 2.7 13.3 2.5 1.4 -4.2 6.2 -0.1 11.5 0.6 24.1 4.1 14.4 4.3 4.0 -1.6 4.2 -3.7 37.2 -0.3

131.8 1.1 4.6 1.4 127.1 1.1 4.5 8.2 18.8 1.1 2.8 13.4 2.6 1.4 0.4 6.3 0.6 11.8 3.1 24.5 1.7 14.5 1.1 4.0 0.5 4.2 -1.0 37.1 -0.3

133.1 1.0 4.6 0.0 128.4 1.0 5.0 11.6 18.9 0.5 2.9 13.3 2.7 1.4 -0.7 6.3 0.0 12.3 4.5 24.7 0.9 14.5 0.0 4.0 1.2 4.1 -1.4 37.1 -0.1

134.3 0.9 4.6 0.0 129.7 1.0 5.5 9.4 18.9 0.3 3.0 13.2 2.7 1.4 1.6 6.2 -1.3 12.8 3.3 24.9 0.8 14.6 0.2 4.1 1.0 4.1 -1.7 37.3 0.5

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

268.9 0.7 140.8 0.7 6.6 574.3 397.6 177

270.6 0.7 140.2 -0.4 5.5 721.1 506.3 215

271.9 0.5 142.8 1.9 4.9 713.8 520.9 193

272.8 0.3 146.2 2.4 4.5 1150.4 669.3 481

273.7 0.4 148.6 1.7 4.4 1348.3 827.5 521

275.2 0.5 150.2 1.0 4.4 1337.3 833.4 504

263.7 0.7 137.7 -1.0 7.1 511.3 363.6 148

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2014

265.2 0.6 138.7 0.7 8.0 510.8 406.6 104

266.9 0.7 139.9 0.8 7.7 446.7 299.4 147

Gainesville

Quarterly Outlook for Gainesville, FL

October 2014

2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

10.9 4.4 5.8 5.1

10.9 3.8 5.9 5

11 4.5 5.9 5.1

11.1 3.6 6 5.1

11.2 2.7 6 5.1

11.3 3.5 6.1 5.2

11.5 4 6.2 5.3

11.6 4.7 6.3 5.4

11.8 5.3 6.3 5.4

11.9 5.7 6.4 5.5

12.1 5.7 6.5 5.6

12.3 5.7 6.6 5.7

12.4 5.5 6.6 5.8

12.5 4.9 6.7 5.8

9.2 2.7

9.2 2

9.3 2.8

9.3 2.2

9.3 1.5

9.4 2.4

9.5 2.7

9.6 3.2

9.7 3.9

9.8 4.1

9.9 4.2

10 4.2

10.1 3.9

10.1 3.4

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

40 33.8

40.1 33.8

40.5 34

40.7 34.1

41 34.2

41.4 34.5

42 34.9

42.5 35.1

43 35.4

43.5 35.7

44.2 36.1

44.7 36.4

45.1 36.6

45.4 36.7

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

44.5 4.7

44.8 4.3

45 4.6

45.2 3.2

45.5 2.3

46 2.7

46.4 3.2

46.9 3.7

47.3 4

47.8 4

48.3 4

48.7 4

49.2 4

49.7 3.9

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

130.4 1.1

130.9 0.8

131.2 0.8

131.7 1.4

132 1.2

132.2 1

132.5 1

132.9 0.9

133.3 1

133.6 1.1

133.9 1.1

134.2 1

134.5 0.9

134.7 0.8

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

4.6 2.7

4.6 1.6

4.6 2

4.6 1.6

4.6 1.4

4.6 0.5

4.6 0.2

4.6 -0.2

4.6 -0.1

4.6 0

4.6 0.2

4.6 0

4.6 -0.3

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

125.8 1

126.3 0.7

126.6 0.8

127.1 1.4

127.3 1.2

127.5 1

127.9 1

128.2 0.9

128.6 1

129 1.1

129.3 1.1

129.6 1.1

129.8 0.9

130.1 0.8

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

4.1 -3.2

4.3 4.3

4.3 6.2

4.4 7.7

4.5 9.6

4.6 9.2

4.8 10.2

4.9 11.4

5.1 12.3

5.2 12.5

5.4 12.4

5.4 10.8

5.5 8.5

5.5 6.2

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

18.6 1.4

18.7 0.9

18.7 1.2

18.8 0.9

18.8 0.6

18.9 0.7

18.9 0.5

18.9 0.3

18.9 0.2

18.9 0.3

19 0.5

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

2.7 13.4 2.5

2.8 13.4 2.6

2.8 13.3 2.6

2.9 13.3 2.7

2.9 13.2 2.7

3 13.2 2.8

3 13.1 2.8

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.4 -6.5

1.4 -5.3

1.4 -1.7

1.4 1.1

1.4 1.6

1.4 0.6

1.4 0.8

1.4 -0.6

1.4 -1.5

1.4 -1.4

1.4 0.5

1.4 1.9

1.4 2.1

1.4 1.9

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

6.2 0.2

6.3 0.1

6.3 0.7

6.3 1.2

6.3 0.6

6.3 0.1

6.3 0

6.3 0.1

6.3 0

6.3 -0.1

6.2 -0.4

6.2 -1

6.2 -1.5

6.1 -2

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

11.5 0.5

11.5 -0.2

11.6 0.7

11.8 3.8

11.9 3.7

12 4.3

12.1 4.7

12.3 4.4

12.4 4.4

12.6 4.6

12.7 4.3

12.7 3.9

12.8 3

12.8 2.1

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

24.2 4.6

24.4 2.9

24.5 2.4

24.6 2.4

24.6 1.5

24.5 0.4

24.6 0.4

24.7 0.3

24.8 0.9

24.9 1.9

24.9 1.4

24.9 1

25 0.7

25 0.3

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

14.4 3.9

14.4 3.7

14.4 0.4

14.5 1

14.6 1.4

14.6 1.3

14.6 0.4

14.5 -0.5

14.4 -1.2

14.5 -1.1

14.5 -0.3

14.6 0.6

14.7 1.6

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

4 -2.5

4 -0.6

4 -1

4 0.7

4 1.1

4 1.3

4 1

4 1.1

4 1.2

4.1 1.4

4.1 1.5

4.1 1.2

4.1 0.9

4.1 0.6

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

4.2 -3.5

4.2 -5.1

4.2 -2.2

4.2 -0.6

4.2 -0.9

4.2 -0.4

4.2 -0.8

4.1 -1.5

4.1 -1.6

4.1 -1.7

4.1 -1.6

4.1 -1.7

4 -1.8

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

37.2 -0.6

37.2 -0.7

37.2 -0.3

37.2 -0.2

37.1 -0.3

37.1 -0.2

37.1 0

37.1 0.1

37.2 0.2

37.2 0.4

37.3 0.5

37.4 0.7

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

272.1 0.4

272.3 0.4

272.5 0.3

272.7 0.3

272.8 0.3

273 0.3

273.3 0.3

273.5 0.3

273.9 0.4

274.2 0.4

274.6 0.5

275 0.5

275.4 0.6

275.8 0.6

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

143 2.1

143.9 2.7

144.9 2.3

145.8 2.2

146.7 2.6

147.5 2.5

148 2.1

148.4 1.8

148.8 1.5

149.4 1.3

149.7 1.1

150.1 1.1

150.4 1

150.6 0.9

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%)

4.9

4.7

4.5

4.4

4.3

4.4

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

651 510 141

788 549 239

962 604 358

1128 632 496

1227 692 535

1285 750 535

1317 791 527

1328 811 517

1364 841 523

1385 867 517

1357 852 505

1330 830 500

1330 826 504

1333 826 507

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

J acksonville

PROFILES

O U T L O O K S U MM A R I E S

The Jacksonville MSA is comprised of Baker, Clay, Duval, Nassau and St. Johns counties. It is located on the northeast coast of Florida and is home to several major U.S. military bases, such as the Jacksonville Naval Air Station, as well as shipyards, the University of North Florida, and the Jacksonville International Airport.

The Jacksonville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to see moderate growth in most of the economic indicators, relative to the other MSAs studied. Personal income will see an average growth rate of 5.3 percent. The real per capita income level is expected to average $38,700, the third highest of the twelve studied MSAs. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.8 percent, while the average annual wage level is expected to be $52,500. Population growth will be moderate at an average annual rate of 1.4 percent. Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 65,656.63.18 million dollars.

QUICK FACTS:

• Metro population estimate of 1,360,251 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Baker County population estimate of 27,154 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• Clay County population estimate of 192,370 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Duval County population estimate of 870,709 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Nassau County population estimate of 74,195 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• St. Johns County population estimate of 195,823 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 735,659 in August 2014 (Florida Research and Economic Database). • An unemployment rate of 6.6% as of August 2014, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 48,300 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Naval Air Station Jacksonville – 25,240 • Duval County Public Schools – 14,480 • Naval Station Mayport – 9,000 • City of Jacksonville – 8,820

• Baptist Health Systems – 8,270

• Bank of America Merrill Lynch – 8,000 • Florida Blue – 6,500

• Mayo Clinic – 4,970 • Citi – 4,200

• JP Morgan Chase – 4,200 Source: City of Jacksonville Office of Economic Development 44

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2014

Employment growth is expected to average 2.3 percent annually. Unemployment will average 5.6 percent in the MSA.

The fastest growing sector in the Jacksonville MSA will be Construction and Mining, which will see an average annual growth rate of 7.9 percent. Following that sector is the Professional and Business Services sector, with an average annual growth rate of 3.7 percent, and then the Leisure and Hospitality sector with an average growth rate of 3.2 percent. The Federal Government sector will experience a decline with an average annual growth rate of -1.1 percent

M E T R O N E W S S U MM A R I E S Bank of America Tower sold for $88 Million

• California-based Hertz Investment Group purchased the Bank of America tower for $88 million, a price of $126 per square-foot. • Jacksonville Tower Association purchased the building for $75 million in 1999. In 2011 the building became the first Jacksonville office tower to receive LEED certification.

• Another iconic downtown Jacksonville building, the Wells Fargo Center, was sold in June for about $120 per square-foot. Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, July 11, 2014

J acksonville

New Jax Bridges initiative wants to generate $100 million in small business • Jax Chamber’s Entrepreneurial Growth Division unveiled Jax Bridges, a new partnership initiative that aims to generate economic growth for the Jacksonville small business community.

• The program plans to accept 100-150 early-stage companies to participate in the first cycle, and will offer training and mentoring opportunities with larger, more established companies. • Other key elements include access to capital, a business exchange portal, entrepreneurial education, and a CEO roundtable. Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, July 30, 2014 Developers to build 120 single-family homes starting in the mid-$300s on Baymeadows Road East • Arizona developer AV Homes purchased 80 acres of land with plans to build a community named Old Still on Baymeadows Road East.

billion. Miami led Florida with $41.8 billion (7th nationally), and Tampa followed with $6.7 billion (43rd nationally). Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, September 5, 2014 Flightstar adding new hangars, jobs, and customers come 2015 • Flightstar Aircraft Services LLC, who first began operations in Jacksonville in 2000, will open a third large hangar on January 1.

• The new hangar will increase current capacity 40 percent. The company will possibly add 200 to 300 more people to its current staff of 915 employees based on 2015 demand. • The company, which specializes in heavy maintenance and repair for aircraft, already has FedEx, Delta, and Southwest as customers and hopes this new hangar will give them the opportunity to expand to new customers. Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, September 8, 2014

• David Smith, head of the Florida AV Homes Division, wants the community to be gated and have the “North Florida feel of San Marco and Avondale.” Though Baymeadows has seen much apartment construction in the past few years, he believes that single-family homes will be a wellreceived addition. • Construction on the community should begin by the end of the year, with sales beginning in early 2015. Source: Florida Times-Union, August 11, 2014 Exports from Jacksonville dipped a bit in 2013

• According to data for the U.S. Department of Commerce, Jacksonville exported $2.5 billion in merchandise in 2013, a slight drop from 2012. • As a way to establish exporting as a greater priority, Jacksonville Mayor Alvin Brown’s budget proposal includes funding for a director of international trade. • Houston exported the most last year with $114

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

J acksonville Jacksonville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Jacksonville Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

0.6

0.8

70000.0

55000.0

4.0%

50000.0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 FL Unemployment Rate Jacksonville Unemployment Rate

45000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

(Thousands)

660.0 640.0 620.0 600.0 580.0 560.0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Jacksonville Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2014

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Gross Metro Product

Jacksonville Real Personal Income

Jacksonville Payroll Employment

1.8

Jacksonville Real Gross Metro Product

6.0%

540.0

1.6

60000.0

8.0%

680.0

1.4

65000.0

10.0%

2.0%

1.2

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

(percent change year ago)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Personal Income

J acksonville

Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

October 2014

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

51.3 -4.7 27.3 24.0 47.3 -4.7 38.4 35.4 45.3 0.8

53.3 3.9 27.7 25.6 48.4 2.2 39.5 35.8 46.3 2.4

55.4 3.9 28.5 26.9 49.1 1.5 40.6 36.0 47.2 1.8

57.7 4.2 29.7 28.0 50.2 2.3 41.8 36.4 48.6 3.1

59.5 3.0 30.8 28.7 51.2 1.9 42.6 36.6 49.3 1.4

62.4 4.9 32.3 30.1 52.9 3.3 44.1 37.4 50.3 2.0

65.1 4.3 33.7 31.4 54.4 2.9 45.4 38.0 51.4 2.2

68.8 5.8 35.5 33.3 56.8 4.4 47.3 39.1 53.2 3.4

73.2 6.3 37.6 35.6 59.5 4.7 49.6 40.3 55.2 3.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 583.5 580.0 586.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.7 -0.6 1.1 Manufacturing 29.2 27.5 27.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -9.9 -6.0 -0.1 Nonmanufacturing 554.3 552.6 559.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.4 -0.3 1.2 Construction & Mining 33.4 29.2 27.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -23.4 -12.7 -5.6 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 126.9 124.4 124.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.9 -2.0 -0.2 Wholesale Trade 26.7 25.6 24.8 Retail Trade 69.5 68.8 69.0 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 30.7 30.0 30.3 Information 10.3 10.2 9.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 -1.7 -5.6 Financial Activities 55.7 55.7 58.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.7 0.0 4.1 Prof & Business Services 79.4 82.4 87.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.7 3.7 6.3 Educ & Health Services 83.7 85.7 87.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.5 2.4 2.4 Leisure & Hospitality 65.3 65.0 66.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.8 -0.4 2.0 Other Services 23.2 23.0 21.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -10.1 -0.9 -6.0 Federal Government 17.5 18.0 17.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.3 2.9 -3.8 State & Local Government 58.8 59.1 59.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.1 0.4 0.2

594.6 1.4 27.9 1.6 566.7 1.4 27.8 1.0 125.5 1.1 24.7 70.2 30.6 9.2 -4.0 60.0 3.5 91.0 3.9 89.2 1.6 69.0 4.0 20.3 -5.9 17.3 -0.4 57.4 -3.0

608.5 2.3 28.1 0.7 580.5 2.4 30.2 8.7 128.2 2.2 25.1 71.9 31.2 9.1 -1.2 61.0 1.7 94.5 3.8 90.7 1.7 72.4 4.9 20.4 0.3 17.0 -1.4 56.9 -0.8

625.9 2.9 28.4 1.4 597.5 2.9 31.9 5.5 131.0 2.2 25.2 73.5 32.4 9.3 1.6 61.5 0.7 100.1 5.9 91.6 1.0 78.1 7.8 20.5 0.5 16.8 -1.2 56.9 0.0

639.5 2.2 29.0 1.8 610.6 2.2 34.2 7.2 134.1 2.4 26.0 74.4 33.8 9.3 0.8 62.1 1.1 101.7 1.7 94.2 2.8 80.3 2.9 20.6 0.9 16.7 -0.7 57.2 0.5

652.5 2.0 29.0 0.1 623.5 2.1 37.6 10.0 136.6 1.9 26.9 74.6 35.1 9.2 -1.2 62.4 0.4 105.4 3.6 96.3 2.2 81.1 0.9 20.9 1.3 16.5 -1.0 57.5 0.6

665.3 2.0 29.0 0.0 636.4 2.1 41.0 9.0 138.9 1.7 27.7 74.5 36.2 9.4 1.7 61.9 -0.7 109.4 3.7 98.0 1.8 82.0 1.1 21.2 1.6 16.3 -1.3 58.2 1.2

1380.1 1.2 696.8 0.8 8.4 6353.3 4539.1 1814

1396.9 1.2 702.0 0.7 6.9 7232.7 6126.0 1107

1414.4 1.3 722.3 2.9 6.0 7962.4 6063.2 1899

1433.7 1.4 737.9 2.2 5.7 10613.3 6866.5 3747

1454.5 1.4 749.7 1.6 5.6 12274.8 8330.3 3945

1476.5 1.5 760.4 1.4 5.4 12200.3 8448.8 3751

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

1336.9 1.0 681.1 -0.9 9.8 4936.2 3400.4 1536

1350.4 1.0 686.9 0.9 10.9 3713.8 3562.4 151

1363.7 1.0 691.3 0.6 9.9 3575.7 3173.6 402

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

J acksonville

Quarterly Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

October 2014

2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

63 5.1 32.5 30.5

63.4 4.7 32.9 30.5

64.2 5.2 33.2 31

64.7 4.2 33.5 31.2

65.3 3.6 33.8 31.5

66.1 4.2 34.3 31.8

67.3 4.9 34.8 32.5

68.3 5.5 35.3 33

69.3 6.1 35.8 33.5

70.5 6.6 36.3 34.1

71.7 6.5 36.8 34.9

72.8 6.6 37.3 35.4

73.7 6.3 37.8 35.9

74.6 5.8 38.3 36.3

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

53.3 3.4

53.4 2.9

53.9 3.5

54.2 2.7

54.5 2.4

55.1 3.1

55.8 3.6

56.5 4.1

57.1 4.7

57.8 5

58.6 5

59.3 5

59.8 4.7

60.3 4.2

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

44.5 37.6

44.6 37.6

45 37.8

45.2 37.9

45.5 38

45.9 38.2

46.5 38.6

47 38.9

47.6 39.2

48.2 39.5

48.8 39.9

49.4 40.2

49.8 40.4

50.2 40.6

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

50.5 2.5

50.7 2.3

51 2.5

51.2 1.9

51.5 2

52 2.5

52.5 2.9

52.9 3.4

53.4 3.7

53.9 3.7

54.4 3.7

54.9 3.7

55.4 3.7

55.9 3.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

628.5 2.7

632.2 2.5

635.1 2.6

638.4 2.3

641.1 2

643.6 1.8

647.1 1.9

650.7 1.9

654.3 2

658 2.2

661.3 2.2

664.3 2.1

666.7 1.9

669 1.7

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

28.5 1.4

28.7 1.8

28.8 2

29 2.3

29 1.9

29 1

29 0.6

29 -0.1

29 0

28.9 -0.2

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

600.1 2.8

603.5 2.5

606.2 2.6

609.4 2.3

612.1 2

614.6 1.8

618.1 2

621.8 2

625.3 2.2

629 2.4

632.3 2.3

635.3 2.2

637.7 2

640.1 1.8

31.9 5.6

32.6 3.5

33.1 5.3

33.7 6.8

34.5 8

35.4 8.7

36.2 9.3

37.1 9.9

38 10.1

39.2 10.7

40 10.5

40.8 9.9

41.3 8.9

41.8 6.6

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

131.5 1.8

132.3 2.2

133.3 2.6

133.7 2.6

134.4 2.2

135.1 2.1

135.6 1.8

136.3 2

137 1.9

137.5 1.8

138 1.7

138.5 1.6

139.2 1.6

139.9 1.8

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

25.3 73.8 32.7

25.5 74.1 33.1

25.6 74.4 33.5

25.8 74.3 33.7

26.1 74.5 33.9

26.3 74.4 34.2

26.5 74.5 34.5

26.8 74.6 34.9

27 74.7 35.2

27.2 74.6 35.6

27.4 74.5 35.9

27.6 74.5 36.1

27.8 74.5 36.3

28 74.6 36.5

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

9.3 1.3

9.4 3.3

9.2 0.6

9.3 1.1

9.4 1.4

9.4 0.1

9.3 0.3

9.2 -1.1

9.2 -2

9.2 -1.8

9.3 0.3

9.4 1.9

9.4 2.3

9.5 2.3

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

61.8 0.9

62.1 2.5

62.3 3.2

62.1 0.8

62 0.4

62 -0.1

62.2 -0.1

62.4 0.4

62.4 0.6

62.5 0.7

62.4 0.2

62.1 -0.4

61.8 -1

61.5 -1.6

100.5 4.4

100.9 2.9

100.9 1.4

101.5 2.3

102.1 1.5

102.5 1.6

103.6 2.6

104.8 3.2

106 3.9

107.2 4.6

108.5 4.7

109.3 4.3

109.6 3.4

110 2.6

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

91.9 1.1

92.7 2.7

93.4 3.1

94.4 3.6

94.6 2.9

94.4 1.8

95.1 1.8

96 1.6

96.6 2.1

97.4 3.2

97.6 2.6

97.9 2

98.1 1.6

98.5 1.1

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

78.8 8.3

79.3 5.3

79.6 5.3

80.1 1.9

80.6 2.2

81 2.2

81.3 2.1

81.1 1.3

81 0.6

80.9 -0.2

81.2 -0.1

81.7 0.7

82.3 1.5

82.9 2.4

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

20.4 0

20.5 -0.3

20.6 0.4

20.6 0.9

20.7 1.1

20.7 1.3

20.8 1.1

20.9 1.2

20.9 1.3

21 1.5

21.1 1.7

21.2 1.7

21.3 1.6

21.4 1.5

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

16.8 -0.3

16.7 -1.6

16.7 -1.4

16.7 -0.5

16.7 -0.7

16.7 -0.2

16.6 -0.5

16.6 -1

16.5 -1.2

16.4 -1.3

16.4 -1.2

16.3 -1.3

16.2 -1.5

57 0.5

57.1 0

57.1 0.9

57.2 0.5

57.2 0.3

57.3 0.4

57.4 0.5

57.5 0.5

57.6 0.6

57.7 0.6

57.9 0.9

58.1 1.1

58.3 1.2

58.6 1.5

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1416.5 1.3

1421.3 1.3

1426.2 1.3

1431.1 1.4

1436.1 1.4

1441.3 1.4

1446.4 1.4

1451.7 1.4

1457.1 1.5

1462.6 1.5

1468.2 1.5

1473.7 1.5

1479.3 1.5

1484.9 1.5

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

724.7 3

728.7 3.6

732.4 2.8

735.8 1.7

739.9 2.1

743.5 2

746.1 1.9

748.1 1.7

750.8 1.5

754 1.4

756.6 1.4

759.2 1.5

761.6 1.4

764.1 1.3

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.8

5.6

5.7

5.6

5.5

5.4

7624 5835 1789

8491 6049 2442

9435 6357 3078

10405 6568 3837

11067 7038 4029

11546 7503 4043

11933 7918 4014

12163 8204 3959

12397 8471 3926

12607 8728 3879

12436 8640 3797

12158 8434 3724

12111 8370 3741

12096 8352 3744

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2014

L akelan d

PROFILES

O U T L O O K S U MM A R I E S

The Lakeland MSA is comprised only of Polk County. It is located in the western-center of the state and is heavily agriculturally based, especially in citrus. Lakeland is the home to Legoland Florida, and is also the location of Publix Supermarket headquarters. Each year the Detroit Tigers host spring training at Joker Marchant Stadium. Lakeland recently welcomed Florida Polytechnic University, the newest member of the State University System.

The Lakeland Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show low-to-moderate levels of growth in most of the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow moderately at average of 4.8 percent annually, while the real per capita income level will average $33,000, the third lowest of the twelve MSAs. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.0 percent, and the average annual wage level is expected to be at $45,100. Population growth is expected to average 0.9 percent annually. Gross Metro Product will be at an average level of 17,915.15 million dollars.

QUICK FACTS:

• Population estimate of 609,492 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 278,775 in August 2014 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

• An unemployment rate of 7.9% as of August 2014, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 22,042 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 6,644

• Lakeland Regional Medical Center – 4,540

Employment growth is expected to average 1.9 percent annually. The unemployment rate for the metro will average 6.5 percent, the second highest of the twelve forecasted MSAs. The Construction and Mining sector is expected to be the fastest growing sector in the area, averaging 8.1 percent annual growth. This is followed by the Professional and Business Services sector averaging 2.9 percent annual growth, and the Trade, Transportation, & Utilities sector averaging 2.2 percent. The Federal Government and State and Local Government sectors will experience a decline with an average annual growth rate of -2.0 and -0.3 percent respectively.

• City of Lakeland – 2,600

M E T R O N E W S S U MM A R I E S

• Watson Clinic – 1,600

Winter Haven Kmart to Close in October

• GEICO – 2,300

• GC Services – 1,000 • Rooms To Go – 900

• Saddle Creek Logistics – 625

• Stryker Sustainability Solutions – 600 Source: Lakeland Economic Development Council

• Kmart will close its Winter Haven store location in mid-October, with inventory liquidation starting on August 14.

• The location, which opened in 1993, has 92 employees who are mostly part-time. According to Kmart, eligible employees will receive severance and will have the opportunity to apply at other Sears/Kmart locations. • Kmart had a $402 million loss in the first quarter, and plans to close 80 store this year including the Winter Park location which has already shut its doors. Source: Lakeland Ledger, July 15, 2014

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

L akelan d

550-Unit Apartment Complex Planned Near Florida Poly • CBD Real Estate Investment of Celebration is planning a $44-million apartment complex along State Road 33 near the existing Landings at Long Lake Apartments.

• The complex, which will be named Long Lake, is located two miles away from Florida Poly and will rent units from $575-$1,175 per month. • David Waronker, President of CBD Real Estate, cites future expansion of the university along with demand for housing by students and faculty as the largest draw for the complex.

Source: Lakeland Ledger, July 16, 2014 Winter Haven Call Center to Add 250 Jobs

• The Results Companies is adding more than 250 jobs to its 5300 Recker Highway facility, bringing the total employment to 430.

• Amy Kaufman, VP of Global Human Resources and Talent for The Results Companies, said the Winter Haven facility has demonstrated it has intelligent and dedicated workers, spurring the decision for growth.

• While the facility will not add any square footage, a renovation allowed the space to accommodate more workers. The 250 new jobs are in customer service positions and will have a pay rate of $8-$10 per hour. Source: Lakeland Ledger, August 7, 2014 Opening Dates Announced for Retailers at New Lakeland Park Center

• The Lakeland Park Center, located adjacent to the Target-anchored shopping center of U.S. 98 North, announced opening dates for its first tenants.

• Dick’s Sporting goods was the first location to open, hosting a grand celebration August 2224. PetSmart, Old Navy, ULTA Beauty, Ross Dress for Less, America’s Best Contacts and Eyeglasses, Dress Barn, Floor and Decor, Shoe Carnival, and Lane Bryant will have staggered 50

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2014

openings through October 23.

• A possible second phase involving 50,000 more square feet of space could be announced by the end of the year. Source: Lakeland Ledger, September 8, 2014 Study: Limited English Proficiency Up; Numbers of Such Workers in Polk Nearly Doubled • According to a Brookings Institute Study, the number of Lakeland-Winter Haven metropolitan area workers with limited English proficiency has nearly doubled since 2000.

• The study considered anyone who specified they spoke English less than “very well” on their U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey as having Limited English Proficiency (LEP). The Lakeland-Winter Haven Metro area had 9 percent of workers as LEP and showed a 99.2 percent jump between 2000 and 2012. • The top two occupations for LEP workers in Polk County were construction & extraction and transportation & material moving.

• Across the US, 19.2 million workers (9.3%) are limited English proficient. Source: Lakeland Ledger, September 23, 2014

L akelan d Lakeland MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

Florida & Lakeland Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

2.5

20000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

19000.0 17000.0 16000.0 15000.0 14000.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 FL Unemployment Rate Lakeland Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

210.0 200.0 190.0 180.0 170.0

Lakeland Real Gross Metro Product

13000.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Lakeland Payroll Employment

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Gross Metro Product

Lakeland Real Personal Income

Lakeland Payroll Employment 220.0

1.5

18000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

(percent change year ago)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

L akelan d

Annual Outlook for Lakeland, FL

October 2014

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

18.7 -3.9 7.7 11.0 17.3 -3.8 31.2 28.8 39.0 0.9

19.9 6.0 7.7 12.2 18.0 4.3 32.8 29.8 39.9 2.3

21.1 6.4 7.8 13.3 18.7 3.9 34.6 30.6 40.6 1.7

22.0 4.3 8.0 14.0 19.2 2.4 35.7 31.1 41.4 2.0

22.7 3.0 8.3 14.3 19.5 1.8 36.4 31.3 42.1 1.5

23.6 4.2 8.7 14.9 20.0 2.7 37.5 31.8 43.2 2.7

24.6 4.0 9.1 15.4 20.6 2.6 38.7 32.4 44.2 2.4

25.9 5.3 9.6 16.3 21.4 3.9 40.4 33.4 45.7 3.4

27.4 5.8 10.1 17.3 22.3 4.2 42.4 34.4 47.4 3.6

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 195.8 191.1 190.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.2 -2.4 -0.5 Manufacturing 14.8 14.2 14.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -9.3 -4.3 0.0 Nonmanufacturing 181.0 176.9 175.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.9 -2.3 -0.6 Construction & Mining 12.1 11.0 10.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -15.3 -8.8 -5.9 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 45.3 44.9 46.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.9 -0.9 2.4 Wholesale Trade 9.1 8.7 9.0 Retail Trade 24.2 24.2 24.5 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 12.0 12.0 12.5 Information 1.9 1.8 1.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -9.2 -7.0 -6.6 Financial Activities 12.0 11.8 11.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.4 -1.7 -1.4 Prof & Business Services 27.4 25.7 24.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -7.5 -6.3 -5.4 Educ & Health Services 29.0 29.2 29.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.4 0.5 1.7 Leisure & Hospitality 17.3 16.8 17.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.5 -3.3 6.0 Other Services 6.1 5.8 5.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.6 -4.5 -7.0 Federal Government 1.4 1.6 1.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.3 15.8 -24.6 State & Local Government 28.5 28.4 28.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.6 -0.3 -1.6

192.6 1.3 14.6 2.9 178.0 1.2 10.2 -1.4 47.1 2.4 9.2 24.6 13.2 1.6 -3.0 11.4 -1.4 25.4 4.4 29.4 -0.9 18.9 6.1 5.3 -2.0 1.1 -7.7 27.6 -1.3

197.1 2.3 15.7 7.6 181.4 1.9 10.9 6.4 48.2 2.5 9.5 25.3 13.4 1.6 -1.6 11.6 1.6 26.2 3.3 29.9 1.6 19.6 3.8 5.2 -1.4 1.1 -3.8 27.1 -1.8

201.0 2.0 16.3 3.9 184.7 1.8 11.2 3.3 50.0 3.7 10.0 26.2 13.9 1.6 1.7 11.8 1.4 26.6 1.3 30.5 2.3 20.2 2.9 5.3 0.4 1.0 -6.0 26.6 -2.0

205.4 2.2 16.6 1.6 188.8 2.2 12.2 8.9 51.1 2.2 10.2 26.4 14.5 1.6 1.7 11.9 1.0 27.5 3.7 31.1 2.0 20.4 1.3 5.3 0.3 1.0 0.7 26.6 -0.1

209.0 1.8 16.7 0.4 192.4 1.9 13.6 11.2 51.9 1.5 10.6 26.3 15.1 1.6 -1.4 11.9 0.1 28.6 3.9 31.5 1.0 20.4 0.1 5.3 0.4 1.0 -1.0 26.6 0.1

212.3 1.6 16.7 0.2 195.6 1.7 14.8 9.0 52.6 1.4 10.9 26.0 15.6 1.6 1.4 11.8 -1.1 29.5 3.0 31.8 1.0 20.5 0.2 5.3 0.9 1.0 -1.6 26.8 0.7

617.0 1.0 272.0 0.6 10.0 1444.9 1392.6 52

623.9 1.1 273.5 0.6 8.2 1924.8 1892.2 33

629.9 1.0 276.0 0.9 7.0 2652.8 2588.7 64

634.6 0.7 280.8 1.7 6.5 4098.9 3496.7 602

639.7 0.8 283.9 1.1 6.4 5346.4 4441.0 905

646.3 1.0 286.9 1.0 6.2 5402.6 4463.3 939

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

599.4 0.7 273.0 -0.1 11.1 1203.3 1190.1 13

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2014

604.5 0.9 277.0 1.4 12.2 1224.0 1168.5 56

610.9 1.1 270.5 -2.3 11.6 1114.3 1058.8 55

L akelan d

Quarterly Outlook for Lakeland, FL

October 2014

2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

23.9 4.6 8.8 15

24 4.4 8.9 15.1

24.3 5 9 15.3

24.4 3.8 9.1 15.4

24.6 3.2 9.2 15.5

24.9 3.9 9.3 15.6

25.3 4.4 9.4 15.9

25.7 5 9.5 16.1

26 5.6 9.7 16.4

26.5 6.1 9.8 16.6

26.9 6.1 9.9 16.9

27.3 6.1 10.1 17.2

27.5 5.8 10.2 17.4

27.8 5.2 10.3 17.5

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

20.2 2.9

20.2 2.6

20.4 3.3

20.5 2.4

20.6 2

20.8 2.9

21 3.1

21.2 3.6

21.5 4.2

21.7 4.5

22 4.6

22.2 4.5

22.4 4.2

22.5 3.6

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

37.9 32

38 32

38.4 32.2

38.6 32.3

38.8 32.4

39.2 32.6

39.8 33

40.2 33.2

40.6 33.5

41.2 33.8

41.8 34.2

42.2 34.4

42.6 34.5

42.9 34.7

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

43.5 3.6

43.7 3.2

43.9 3.3

44 2.1

44.3 1.9

44.7 2.3

45.1 2.9

45.5 3.4

45.9 3.7

46.4 3.7

46.8 3.7

47.2 3.6

47.6 3.7

48.1 3.6

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

201.9 2.2

203.2 2.7

204 2.9

205 2.1

205.9 1.9

206.6 1.7

207.5 1.7

208.5 1.7

209.6 1.8

210.6 1.9

211.4 1.9

212.1 1.7

212.7 1.5

213.1 1.2

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

16.4 2.5

16.5 3.2

16.5 2.1

16.6 1.7

16.6 1.6

16.6 1

16.6 0.7

16.6 0.3

16.7 0.3

16.7 0.4

16.7 0.2

16.7 -0.1

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

185.6 2.2

186.7 2.7

187.5 3

188.4 2.2

189.2 2

189.9 1.7

190.8 1.8

191.8 1.8

192.9 1.9

193.9 2.1

194.7 2

195.4 1.9

196 1.6

196.5 1.3

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

11.2 2.1

11.7 6.2

11.9 8.1

12 8.6

12.3 10.3

12.7 8.6

13 9.7

13.4 11

13.8 11.9

14.2 12.2

14.6 12

14.8 10.5

14.9 8.1

15.1 5.9

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

50.3 3.8

50.5 3.8

50.8 3.2

51 2

51.2 1.8

51.4 1.8

51.6 1.5

51.8 1.6

52 1.5

52.1 1.4

52.3 1.4

52.5 1.3

52.7 1.4

52.9 1.5

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

10 26.3 14

10.1 26.4 14.2

10.1 26.5 14.4

10.2 26.4 14.4

10.3 26.4 14.6

10.4 26.3 14.7

10.4 26.3 14.8

10.5 26.3 15

10.6 26.3 15.1

10.7 26.2 15.3

10.8 26.1 15.4

10.9 26 15.5

10.9 26 15.6

11 25.9 15.7

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.6 3.1

1.6 3.4

1.6 3

1.6 1.6

1.6 1.9

1.6 0.4

1.6 0.3

1.6 -1.4

1.6 -2.3

1.6 -2

1.6 0.2

1.6 1.7

1.6 1.9

1.6 1.7

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

11.8 1.4

11.9 1.9

11.9 2.1

11.9 1.2

11.9 0.6

11.9 0.1

11.9 0.2

11.9 0.1

11.9 0

11.9 -0.3

11.8 -0.9

11.7 -1.4

11.7 -1.9

27 3.9

27 4.7

27.1 6.1

27.4 2.9

27.7 2.7

27.9 3.2

28.2 3.8

28.4 3.7

28.8 3.8

29.1 4.2

29.3 4

29.5 3.7

29.5 2.7

29.6 1.7

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

30.7 2.5

30.9 3.3

31 3

31.3 2.6

31.2 1.7

31.1 0.5

31.2 0.6

31.4 0.4

31.5 1.1

31.7 2.1

31.7 1.6

31.8 1.2

31.8 0.9

31.9 0.4

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

20.2 2

20.3 1.1

20.3 1.4

20.4 1.1

20.5 1.3

20.5 1.2

20.5 1.1

20.5 0.4

20.4 -0.3

20.3 -0.9

20.4 -0.9

20.4 -0.2

20.5 0.5

20.6 1.2

5.3 0.9

5.2 1

5.3 0

5.3 0.4

5.3 0.5

5.3 0.2

5.3 0.3

5.3 0.5

5.3 0.8

5.3 1

5.3 0.9

5.4 0.7

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1 -5.2

1 -0.5

1 -0.1

1 0.9

1 0.4

1 1.5

1 0.3

1 -1.2

1 -1.5

1 -1.6

1 -1.7

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

26.6 -1.8

26.6 -1.3

26.6 -0.2

26.6 0.1

26.5 -0.1

26.6 -0.1

26.6 0

26.6 0.2

26.7 0.4

26.7 0.6

26.8 0.7

26.9 1

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

630.5 0.9

631.7 0.8

632.9 0.8

634 0.7

635.1 0.7

636.2 0.7

637.5 0.7

638.9 0.8

640.4 0.8

642 0.9

643.7 1

645.4 1

647.2 1.1

648.9 1.1

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

276.9 1.3

277.9 2.2

279.1 2.4

280.2 1.2

281.4 1.6

282.5 1.6

283.1 1.4

283.5 1.2

284.1 1

284.9 0.9

285.7 0.9

286.5 1.1

287.3 1.1

288 1.1

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

6.7

6.5

6.6

6.5

6.4

6.3

6.2

2628 2563 66

2980 2796 184

3446 3099 347

3868 3293 575

4338 3635 704

4743 3960 784

5080 4218 862

5265 4362 903

5445 4523 922

5596 4661 935

5515 4577 938

5378 4452 926

5361 4417 944

5356 4406 950

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Mia m i – F o r t L au d e r d ale – P o m pano B each

PROFILES

O U T L O O K S U MM A R I E S

The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–Pompano Beach MSA is comprised of Miami-Dade County, Broward County, and Palm Beach County. Located on the southeast coast of Florida, Miami is home to the Port of Miami, the largest cruise ship port in the world and one of nation’s busiest cargo ports. Miami is also home to many sports teams including the Miami Dolphins, the Miami Heat, the Florida Marlins and the Florida Panthers, as well as many institutions of higher education including the University of Miami and Florida International University.

The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–Pompano Beach area is expected to show moderate growth in the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow an average of 5.2 percent annually. The average real per capita income level of $40,800 is the second highest in the areas studied. Average annual wage growth will be 2.9 percent. The average annual wage level is expected to be $54,500, the highest of the studied areas. Miami is expected to average a population growth of 1.2 percent each year. The area has the highest Gross Metro Product of the MSAs studied at an average level of 268,876.62 million dollars.

QUICK FACTS:

• Metro area population estimate of 5,670,125 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• Miami-Dade County population estimate of 2,554,766 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Broward County population estimate of 1,780,172 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• Palm Beach County population estimate of 1,335,187 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 3,045,298 in August 2014 (Florida Research and Economic Database). • An unemployment rate of 6.6% as of August 2014, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 201,404 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: • • • • • • • • • • •

Miami-Dade County Public School – 48,571 Miami-Dade County – 29,000 Federal Government – 19,500 Florida State Government – 17,100 University of Miami – 16,000 Baptist Health South Florida – 13,376 Jackson Health System – 12,571 Publix Super Markets – 10,800 American Airlines – 9,000 Florida International University – 8,000 Miami-Dade College – 6,200

Source: The Beacon Council

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2014

Employment is expected to grow at an average rate of 2.4 percent each year, while unemployment is expected to be moderate at an average rate of 5.9 percent.

Miami’s fastest growing sector is expected to be the Construction and Mining sector at an average of 10.0 percent annually, followed by the Professional and Business Services sector at 4.0 percent each year. The Federal Government sector is expected to experience a decline with an average annual growth rate of -1.0 percent.

M E T R O N E W S S U MM A R I E S Related Development breaks ground on four South Florida rental properties • A South Florida developer is breaking ground on four new rental properties this month, totaling more than 1,100 new units.

• The company planned the new buildings to meet rental demand as single-family homeownership declines and millennial workers enter the job market, Related Development President Steve Patterson said. • The company plans to build more than 4,700 rental units in the next year.

Source: South Florida Business Journals, September 25, 2014

Mia m i – F o r t L au d e r d ale – P o m pano B each

More than a quarter of mortgaged homes in Miami are underwater • Many Miami homeowners are still upside down in their mortgages, according to data from CoreLogic, a California based data firm. • Despite the rebound in home prices, 25.3 percent of Miami-area residences that have a mortgage had negative equity in the second quarter of 2014.

• Across Florida, 24.3 percent of mortgaged homes were underwater in the second quarter — the second highest state level in the nation behind Nevada, where 26.3 percent of mortgaged homes were in negative equity. Source: Miami Herald, September 25, 2014 Miami Commission sets $560 million budget

• The commission voted in favor of the budget, which increases spending by $35 million over 2014. The total amount $560 million will fund dozens of new police officer positions and bolster reserves. • $14 million more will go to the police department, much of it to fund 80 new police officer positions. The budget also finds money for 22 more firefighters, and boosts the city’s reserves to about $90 million.

• The budget is a compromise between commissioners and Regalado and City Manager Daniel Alfonso, who argued for months that commissioners should use an influx of property taxes to boost once-depleted reserves and move forward with badly needed maintenance projects. Source: Miami Herald, September 24, 2014 Florida groups get $8.2 million to fight chronic illnesses

and poor nutrition

• In South Florida, Miami-Dade County is to receive $3.3 million and the Broward Regional Health Planning Council $1.7 million. The state of Florida will receive $930,084. • The Florida awards, targeted toward populations hardest hit by chronic diseases and funded partly by the Affordable Care Act, are part of more than $211 million in grants to organizations around the country. Source: Miami Herald, September 23, 2014 Federal report supports All Aboard plan

• The federal government has delivered a largely positive evaluation of a $2.5 billion private project to build an express passenger train between Miami and Orlando that, according to company estimates, could have a ridership of 3.5 million by 2019. • A required Draft Environmental Impact Statement issued by the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) says that overall the All Aboard Florida project would have minimal impacts on the environment including air quality, water resources, wetlands and protected species.

• Approval of the federal evaluation is important both because it advances All Aboard Florida toward reality and because federal approval is necessary before the company can qualify for the $1.6 billion loan it is seeking for the project. • All Aboard Florida plans to start operating in 2016 by running trains first between Miami and West Palm Beach. The second phase of the project would start operations in 2017 between West Palm Beach and Orlando International Airport. Source: Miami Herald, September 22, 2014

• The Department of Health and Human Services announced $8.2 million in grants to Florida governments and organizations to support programs aimed at preventing chronic diseases, many of them caused by tobacco use Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Mia m i â&#x20AC;&#x201C; F o r t L au d e r d ale â&#x20AC;&#x201C; P o m pano B each Miami - Fort Lauderdale - Pompano Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Miami Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

10.0%

1.4

1.6

Miami Real Gross Metro Product 320000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

300000.0

220000.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 FL Unemployment Rate Miami Unemployment Rate

200000.0

(Thousands)

2500.0 2400.0 2300.0 2200.0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Miami Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2014

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Gross Metro Product

Miami Real Personal Income

Miami Payroll Employment

1.2

240000.0

4.0%

2100.0

260000.0

6.0%

2600.0

0.8

280000.0

8.0%

2.0%

0.6

8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0%

(percent change year ago)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Personal Income

Mia m i – F o r t L au d e r d ale – P o m pano B each

Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL

October 2014

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

224.3 -6.3 106.1 118.2 206.9 -6.3 40.7 37.5 47.7 0.4

232.4 3.6 107.0 125.4 210.9 1.9 41.5 37.7 48.4 1.6

245.2 5.5 110.9 134.2 217.3 3.0 43.0 38.2 49.3 1.9

254.8 3.9 115.8 139.0 221.8 2.0 44.2 38.4 50.3 2.0

262.7 3.1 120.7 142.0 226.0 1.9 45.0 38.7 51.1 1.5

274.7 4.6 127.0 147.7 232.9 3.0 46.5 39.4 52.2 2.2

286.1 4.1 132.9 153.2 239.3 2.8 47.9 40.1 53.4 2.3

302.4 5.7 140.3 162.1 249.6 4.3 50.0 41.3 55.2 3.4

321.1 6.2 148.4 172.8 261.1 4.6 52.4 42.6 57.2 3.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 2212.0 2195.0 2234.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.3 -0.8 1.8 Manufacturing 80.5 76.0 76.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -13.8 -5.6 0.5 Nonmanufacturing 2131.5 2119.0 2158.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.9 -0.6 1.9 Construction & Mining 102.9 89.0 85.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -24.0 -13.5 -3.7 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 505.8 505.0 520.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.6 -0.2 3.1 Wholesale Trade 135.5 132.7 134.5 Retail Trade 281.2 284.0 294.9 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 89.1 88.4 91.0 Information 44.9 43.6 44.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -9.6 -3.0 1.2 Financial Activities 156.3 153.3 156.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -9.1 -1.9 2.0 Prof & Business Services 322.2 325.8 339.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -7.9 1.1 4.2 Educ & Health Services 330.6 335.7 341.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.3 1.5 1.6 Leisure & Hospitality 248.2 252.2 262.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.7 1.6 3.9 Other Services 102.0 101.7 103.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.6 -0.3 2.2 Federal Government 34.1 36.7 34.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.7 7.6 -6.9 State & Local Government 284.5 276.0 271.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.3 -3.0 -1.8

2287.4 2.4 77.1 0.9 2210.3 2.4 87.1 1.7 537.2 3.2 139.2 303.8 94.3 45.2 2.5 161.4 3.2 353.1 4.0 341.8 0.2 275.7 5.2 108.6 4.5 33.8 -1.0 266.4 -1.7

2349.3 2.7 77.6 0.7 2271.7 2.8 93.7 7.6 550.0 2.4 140.4 312.7 96.9 46.1 1.9 165.0 2.2 371.2 5.1 346.5 1.4 286.3 3.8 111.4 2.6 33.5 -0.8 267.9 0.6

2418.8 3.0 79.1 1.9 2339.6 3.0 101.5 8.3 567.7 3.2 143.1 324.7 100.5 47.1 2.2 168.2 1.9 386.3 4.1 355.1 2.5 295.6 3.3 114.7 2.9 32.8 -2.0 270.6 1.0

2475.3 2.3 79.6 0.6 2395.7 2.4 111.4 9.7 580.3 2.2 147.2 329.0 105.1 47.5 0.9 169.8 1.0 399.4 3.4 364.9 2.8 302.6 2.4 115.5 0.7 32.8 -0.2 271.5 0.3

2528.2 2.1 79.0 -0.8 2449.2 2.2 124.4 11.7 590.4 1.7 152.4 329.5 109.7 47.0 -1.1 170.1 0.2 418.1 4.7 372.0 1.9 305.4 0.9 116.5 0.9 32.5 -0.8 272.7 0.4

2578.0 2.0 78.4 -0.8 2499.6 2.1 137.2 10.2 599.3 1.5 157.2 328.5 113.7 47.6 1.4 168.2 -1.1 434.8 4.0 377.6 1.5 308.9 1.1 118.2 1.4 32.1 -1.2 275.6 1.1

5770.7 1.3 2948.5 1.8 8.7 11412.5 5271.5 6141

5836.5 1.1 2969.1 0.7 7.4 17169.3 6257.2 10912

5903.3 1.1 3011.4 1.4 6.2 15255.4 6109.7 9146

5974.8 1.2 3079.1 2.2 5.9 25865.2 11665.1 14200

6049.4 1.2 3138.2 1.9 5.9 33502.1 18207.3 15295

6128.5 1.3 3190.1 1.7 5.8 34787.2 19500.0 15287

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5515.6 1.0 2798.7 -2.5 10.3 3469.8 2217.0 1253

5594.4 1.4 2836.4 1.3 11.2 5043.1 3266.7 1776

5695.4 1.8 2895.4 2.1 10.3 7287.7 4124.4 3163

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Mia m i – F o r t L au d e r d ale – P o m pano B each

Quarterly Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL

October 2014

2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

277.5 4.9 128 149.5

278.8 4.5 129.5 149.4

282.3 4.9 130.7 151.6

284.5 4 132 152.4

287.1 3.5 133.4 153.7

290.5 4.2 135.3 155.2

295.8 4.8 137.3 158.5

300 5.5 139.3 160.7

304.4 6 141.3 163.1

309.4 6.5 143.4 166

314.8 6.4 145.5 169.4

319.4 6.5 147.4 172

323.3 6.2 149.3 174

327 5.7 151.3 175.8

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

234.5 3.2

234.8 2.7

237.1 3.2

238.4 2.6

239.7 2.2

242 3.1

245.4 3.5

248 4

250.8 4.6

254 4.9

257.5 4.9

260.2 4.9

262.4 4.6

264.4 4.1

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

46.9 39.7

47 39.6

47.5 39.9

47.7 40

48 40.1

48.4 40.3

49.1 40.8

49.7 41.1

50.2 41.4

50.9 41.8

51.6 42.2

52.2 42.5

52.7 42.7

53.1 42.9

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

52.4 2.7

52.7 2.5

52.9 2.7

53.1 1.9

53.5 2

54 2.4

54.5 2.9

54.9 3.4

55.4 3.7

56 3.7

56.5 3.7

57 3.7

57.5 3.7

58 3.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

2429 3

2443.6 3

2455.6 2.7

2470.3 2.4

2482.3 2.2

2493.1 2

2506.7 2.1

2521.1 2.1

2535.1 2.1

2550 2.3

2562.4 2.2

2573.6 2.1

2583.1 1.9

2592.9 1.7

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

79 1.2

79.6 1.5

79.7 0.8

79.8 1

79.6 0.7

79.4 -0.2

79.3 -0.5

79 -0.9

78.9 -0.9

78.7 -0.8

78.5 -0.7

78.3 -0.7

78.1 -0.9

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

2350 3

2364.1 3

2376 2.8

2390.5 2.5

2402.7 2.2

2413.7 2.1

2427.5 2.2

2442.1 2.2

2456.3 2.2

2471.2 2.4

2483.7 2.3

2495.1 2.2

2504.8 2

2514.8 1.8

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

102.7 8.1

105 8.4

107.3 9.9

109.6 8.7

112.5 9.6

116 10.5

119.1 11

122.4 11.6

125.9 11.8

130.3 12.4

133.5 12.1

136.2 11.3

138.4 10

140.5 7.8

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

570 3.3

573.1 3.2

576.7 2.6

578.6 2.3

581.6 2

584.4 2

586.6 1.7

589.4 1.9

591.9 1.8

593.7 1.6

595.6 1.5

597.8 1.4

600.5 1.5

603.3 1.6

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

143.3 326.4 101.3

144.4 327.5 102.5

145.5 329.2 103.8

146.5 328.6 104.5

147.9 329.2 105.5

149.1 328.9 106.6

150.3 329.1 107.7

151.8 329.5 109.1

153 329.8 110.3

154.4 329.5 111.5

155.5 328.7 112.5

156.6 328.3 113.3

157.7 328.6 114.1

159 328.5 114.9

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

47.2 1.9

47.9 3.1

47.1 1.4

47.3 1

47.8 1.3

48 0.1

47.2 0.4

46.8 -1

46.9 -1.9

47 -1.9

47.3 0.1

47.5 1.6

47.8 1.9

47.9 1.9

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

168.9 1.8

169.6 2.1

170.1 2.5

169.9 1

169.7 0.5

169.6 0

169.9 -0.1

170.2 0.2

170.3 0.4

170.1 0.3

169.7 -0.1

168.8 -0.8

167.7 -1.5

166.7 -2

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

389.1 3.9

391.7 4.7

393.9 3.4

397.9 3.7

401.4 3.2

404.6 3.3

409.7 4

415.3 4.4

420.9 4.9

426.6 5.4

431.4 5.3

434.5 4.6

435.9 3.6

437.4 2.5

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

356.5 2.8

359.5 2.9

362.1 3.1

365.9 3.6

366.2 2.7

365.5 1.7

368 1.6

371 1.4

373.1 1.9

375.9 2.8

376.4 2.3

377.2 1.7

378 1.3

379 0.8

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

296.8 3.2

298.6 2.9

299.7 2.9

301.7 2

303.6 2.3

305.4 2.3

306.3 2.2

305.7 1.3

305.3 0.5

304.6 -0.3

305.8 -0.1

307.7 0.6

309.9 1.5

312.1 2.5

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

114.8 2.9

114.8 1.5

115.2 0.9

115.4 0.5

115.6 0.7

115.7 0.8

116 0.7

116.3 0.8

116.7 0.9

117.1 1.2

117.6 1.4

118 1.4

118.4 1.4

118.8 1.4

32.9 -1.6

32.6 -2.3

32.7 -0.8

32.8 -0.1

32.8 -0.3

32.7 0.3

32.7 -0.1

32.5 -0.9

32.5 -1

32.4 -1

32.3 -1.1

32.2 -1

32.1 -1.2

32 -1.3

271.2 1.4

271.3 0.6

271.3 0.7

271.4 0.2

271.5 0.1

271.8 0.2

272 0.3

272.4 0.4

273 0.5

273.4 0.6

274.2 0.8

275.1 1

276.1 1.1

277.1 1.4

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

5911.5 1.1

5929 1.2

5947.2 1.2

5965.6 1.2

5984 1.2

6002.4 1.2

6021.1 1.2

6039.7 1.2

6058.8 1.3

6078 1.3

6098 1.3

6118.3 1.3

6138.6 1.3

6159.2 1.3

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

3016.9 1.7

3034.9 2.5

3053 2.3

3069.1 2

3088.1 2.4

3106.2 2.4

3120.3 2.2

3130.3 2

3143.5 1.8

3158.6 1.7

3171.7 1.6

3184.5 1.7

3196.3 1.7

3208 1.6

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.9

5.8

5.7

13612 5891 7721

17055 7296 9759

20957 9098 11858

25073 10421 14652

27651 12492 15159

29780 14650 15131

31611 16447 15163

32975 17757 15218

34206 18814 15392

35216 19811 15405

35081 19856 15225

34494 19391 15103

34625 19325 15300

34949 19429 15520

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2014

N aples - Ma r co I slan d

PROFILES

O U T L O O K S U MM A R I E S

The Naples–Marco Island MSA is comprised of Collier County only. Located on the southwest coast of Florida it is notable for numerous recreation and leisure activities. This region is sometimes referred to as the “Crown Jewel of Southwest Florida”.

The Naples–Marco Island Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show strong growth in most of the economic indicators. The metro area shows the highest personal income growth among the studied MSAs at an average of 6.3 percent. Real per capita income level, which is expected to average $55,000, is also the highest of the MSAs. Average annual wage will be at a level of $51,500. The average annual wage is expected to grow at a rate of 3.6 percent. Population growth will average 2.5 percent, the highest in the studied areas, and the Gross Metro Product level will be an average of 16,345.71 million dollars.

QUICK FACTS:

• Population estimate of 328,134 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • A civilian labor force of 157,732 in August 2014 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

• An unemployment rate of 6.9% as of August 2014, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 10,838 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Naples Community Hospital – 4,000 • The Ritz-Carlton, Naples – 1,110 • Gargiulo, Inc. – 1,110 • Arthrex, Inc – 1,056

• Collier County Sheriff’s Office – 1,029 • Hometown Inspection Svc. – 900 • Publix – 800

• Marriott – 700

• Naples Grande Beach Resort – 700 • Downing Frye Realty – 550

Source: Collier Business & Economic Development

Employment growth is expected to average 3.2 percent each year, the highest of the MSAs. The metro will see an average unemployment rate of 5.9 percent.

The Construction and Mining sector represents Naples’ fastest growing sector, growing at an average rate of 9.4 percent each year. The Professional and Business Services sector and Other Services sector follow with average growth rates of 3.7 and 3.3 percent respectively. None of the sectors are expected to decline.

M E T R O N E W S S U MM A R I E S Bonita Springs-based WCI looks to build new communities in Fort Myers, Jacksonville

• Bonita Springs-based luxury homebuilder WCI Communities Inc. continues to build itself for growth.

• In the second quarter, the company closed on about 1,300 home sites, worth $70 million, and signed contracts for another 1,400 lots, giving it the potential to start building in two new master planned communities in Fort Myers and Jacksonville.

• WCI builds luxury single and multifamily homes in most of coastal Florida’s larger growth markets. With a more than 60-year history, the company is known for developing amenity-rich master planned communities, catering to move-up, active adults and second-home buyers. • Total revenues for all of its segments grew to nearly $93 million in the quarter, an increase of $9.7 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

N aples - Ma r co I slan d

million, or 11.6 percent, from last year. Source: Naples News, August 6, 2014 SWFL Children’s Charities presents $100,000 to FSW’s School of Health Professions

• SWFL Children’s Charities Inc., organizer of the Southwest Florida Wine & Food Fest, presented a gift of $100,000 to the School of Health Professions at Florida South Western State College (FSW).

• The gift, which will directly benefit the college by providing new technology and student scholarships, was presented by SWFL Children’s Charities trustees and event co-chairs Elaine Hawkins and Dorothy Fitzgerald. • The gift came at an opportune moment as FSW invests in new technology to keep nursing education cutting edge while also satisfying recent state legislation that permits an increase in the total clinical training that can be achieved through simulation from 25 to 50 percent.

• The gift from SWFL Children’s Charities will support nursing, respiratory care and dental hygiene clinical education in the areas of pediatric and obstetric care. Source: Naples News, September 2, 2014 Florida South Western trying to raise $20 million for arena at student center

• Florida South Western State College officials are hoping a proposed $20 million student activities center on the school’s Fort Myers campus will serve as a place for high school graduations, concerts and community events. • The school doesn’t plan to use state money or bonds to build the arena; instead it is hoping to raise the cash from private donors.

• The hope is to have the arena open by 2016. While the arena will be the home court for the basketball and volleyball teams, Carl McAloose, Florida South Western’s athletics director said the goal is to offer it up to the community for other uses. 60

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2014

Source: Naples News, September 14, 2014 Deep impact: Artificial reef project underway in Marco waters

• Although the new artificial reefs off the coast of Marco Island, Naples and Collier County will be sunk deep below the surface of the Gulf of Mexico, they promise to have a strong, lasting and beneficial effect on the above-water communities nearby. • Funded by more than $1.3 million in BP Gulf fund grants to Naples, Marco Island and Collier County, project organizers are building six 500-ton reefs the size of football fields, each with six smaller pyramid-shaped modules 8 to 12 feet high. • The more than $3.5 million project is expected to benefit the tourism industry and will attract high-dollar fishing tournaments. It’s also expected to bring in $30 million over the years, boosting ecotourism, hotel stays, dining, shopping, boating, fishing, diving trip, and bait shop revenues.

Source: Naples News, September 28, 2014 AT&T hiring for more than 25 jobs in southwest Florida

• AT&T announced that the company will hire workers for more than 25 jobs in southwest Florida. • The positions, primarily focused on retail and technician jobs in Lee, Collier and Sarasota counties, are a result of AT&T’s continued investment in Florida to support the company’s growing retail business and focus on the customer experience. • All of the positions are newly created jobs. In all, AT&T is hiring for nearly 460 jobs throughout Florida. AT&T hired nearly 2,980 employees in Florida in 2013, and nearly 1,230 more between January and June 2014.

Source: Naples News, August 29, 2014

N aples - Ma r co I slan d Naples - Marco Island MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Naples Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

0.8

1.4

1.6

1.8

18000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

14000.0 12000.0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 FL Unemployment Rate Naples Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

140.0 130.0 120.0 110.0 100.0 90.0

1.2

Naples Real Gross Metro Product

10000.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Naples Payroll Employment

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Gross Metro Product

Naples Real Personal Income

Naples Payroll Employment 150.0

16000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

0.6

21.0% 18.0% 15.0% 12.0% 9.0% 6.0% 3.0% 0.0% -3.0% -6.0% -9.0% -12.0% -15.0% -18.0%

(percent change year ago)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

N aples - Ma r co I slan d

Annual Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL

October 2014

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

17.5 -13.7 5.0 12.5 16.2 -13.7 54.9 50.6 45.0 -1.4

18.3 4.5 5.1 13.2 16.6 2.7 56.6 51.4 45.8 1.6

19.3 5.6 5.3 14.0 17.1 3.2 58.9 52.2 46.0 0.4

20.1 3.9 5.6 14.5 17.5 2.0 60.2 52.4 46.5 1.3

20.7 3.2 5.9 14.9 17.8 2.1 60.9 52.4 47.2 1.5

21.9 5.7 6.3 15.6 18.6 4.1 63.0 53.4 48.9 3.6

23.0 4.9 6.7 16.3 19.2 3.5 64.5 54.0 50.4 2.9

24.6 7.0 7.1 17.5 20.3 5.6 67.2 55.4 52.2 3.8

26.5 7.8 7.6 18.9 21.5 6.2 70.4 57.2 54.3 4.0

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 111.3 111.2 114.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -8.4 -0.1 3.3 Manufacturing 2.6 2.4 2.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -11.2 -6.7 1.4 Nonmanufacturing 108.6 108.8 112.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -8.3 0.1 3.4 Construction & Mining 10.4 9.1 9.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -27.9 -12.9 -1.0 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 21.1 21.3 22.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -7.6 0.9 4.0 Wholesale Trade 2.8 2.8 2.9 Retail Trade 16.9 17.0 17.9 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 1.5 1.5 1.4 Information 1.6 1.5 1.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -8.9 -4.2 -4.8 Financial Activities 6.6 6.5 6.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -9.8 -1.0 -1.0 Prof & Business Services 10.5 11.1 12.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.6 5.8 9.3 Educ & Health Services 16.6 17.1 17.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.3 3.0 4.7 Leisure & Hospitality 21.0 21.3 22.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -8.2 1.6 6.0 Other Services 7.2 7.3 7.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.1 0.8 -0.2 Federal Government 0.7 0.8 0.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 14.7 -10.6 State & Local Government 12.9 12.7 12.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.8 -1.6 0.3

118.7 3.3 2.7 8.1 116.0 3.2 9.4 4.5 22.8 2.6 3.0 18.4 1.4 1.4 -2.2 6.7 4.3 13.3 9.8 18.0 0.4 23.6 4.4 7.5 2.5 0.6 -7.3 12.7 -0.3

123.4 4.0 3.1 14.1 120.4 3.7 10.5 11.6 24.0 5.6 3.4 19.2 1.4 1.5 4.2 7.0 4.0 13.6 2.2 18.3 1.7 24.5 4.2 7.9 6.2 0.6 -7.4 12.4 -2.7

128.1 3.8 3.2 4.7 124.9 3.7 11.6 11.1 24.9 3.6 3.7 19.8 1.5 1.5 1.0 7.2 2.5 14.2 4.5 18.7 2.0 25.3 3.1 8.3 5.1 0.6 -1.8 12.5 1.2

131.6 2.8 3.3 1.5 128.4 2.8 12.4 6.5 25.6 2.7 3.8 20.2 1.6 1.5 1.8 7.3 1.6 14.5 2.1 19.3 3.1 25.9 2.4 8.5 2.6 0.6 1.2 12.7 1.6

135.7 3.1 3.3 0.3 132.4 3.2 13.8 11.0 26.2 2.5 4.1 20.5 1.7 1.6 1.4 7.4 1.4 15.1 4.1 19.7 2.4 26.3 1.6 8.8 2.7 0.6 0.5 12.9 1.9

139.7 3.0 3.3 0.3 136.5 3.0 15.0 8.8 26.8 2.2 4.3 20.7 1.8 1.6 3.3 7.4 -0.3 15.7 4.0 20.2 2.5 26.9 2.0 9.0 3.0 0.6 0.1 13.3 2.5

333.6 1.6 152.8 3.1 8.5 1477.3 1275.7 202

340.5 2.1 155.5 1.8 6.9 2314.0 1671.9 642

347.4 2.0 162.0 4.2 5.8 2556.5 2114.5 442

355.8 2.4 169.2 4.4 5.7 4173.5 2462.3 1711

365.9 2.8 175.7 3.9 6.0 4899.9 2693.4 2207

376.5 2.9 181.8 3.5 6.0 4950.3 2753.7 2197

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

319.1 0.7 143.3 -3.3 11.0 833.0 633.4 200

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2014

323.1 1.2 145.0 1.2 11.6 1200.0 804.0 396

328.3 1.6 148.1 2.2 10.2 1211.2 922.6 289

N aples - Ma r co I slan d

Quarterly Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL

October 2014

2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

22.2 6 6.4 15.8

22.3 5.1 6.5 15.8

22.6 5.6 6.5 16.1

22.8 4.8 6.6 16.2

23.1 3.9 6.7 16.4

23.4 5.2 6.8 16.6

23.9 5.8 6.9 17

24.3 6.7 7.1 17.3

24.8 7.5 7.2 17.6

25.3 8.1 7.3 18

25.8 8.1 7.4 18.4

26.3 8.2 7.6 18.8

26.7 7.8 7.7 19

27.1 7 7.8 19.3

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

18.8 4.3

18.7 3.2

19 3.9

19.1 3.4

19.3 2.7

19.5 4.1

19.8 4.5

20.1 5.3

20.4 6

20.8 6.5

21.1 6.5

21.4 6.6

21.7 6.2

21.9 5.4

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

63.7 53.8

63.5 53.5

64.1 53.8

64.3 53.9

64.6 54

65.1 54.3

66 54.8

66.7 55.2

67.5 55.6

68.4 56.1

69.4 56.7

70.2 57.2

70.7 57.4

71.2 57.5

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

49.5 4.7

49.7 4.9

49.9 4.6

50.1 2.8

50.4 2

51 2.5

51.4 3.1

52 3.7

52.5 4.1

53.1 4.1

53.5 4.1

54.1 4

54.6 4

55.1 3.9

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

128.3 3.6

129.1 1.7

130 1.9

131.2 3

132.2 3

133.1 3.1

134.1 3.2

135.1 3

136.3 3.1

137.3 3.2

138.3 3.2

139.3 3.1

140.2 2.9

141.1 2.7

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

3.2 3.4

3.2 1.9

3.2 1.4

3.3 2

3.3 1.8

3.3 1.1

3.3 0.5

3.3 0.1

3.3 0.3

3.3 0.5

3.3 0.3

3.3 0.1

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

125.1 3.7

125.9 1.7

126.7 1.9

127.9 3

128.9 3.1

129.8 3.1

130.8 3.2

131.9 3.1

133 3.2

134.1 3.3

135.1 3.2

136 3.2

137 3

137.8 2.8

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

11.7 9.8

11.8 6.2

12 4.6

12.2 4.9

12.5 6.9

12.9 9.7

13.2 10.4

13.5 10.9

14 11.5

14.4 11.4

14.7 11.4

14.9 10.1

15.1 8

15.3 6.2

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

24.9 3.2

25.1 1.2

25.3 1.8

25.5 3.2

25.7 2.9

25.8 2.9

26 2.6

26.1 2.6

26.3 2.5

26.4 2.2

26.5 2.2

26.7 2.1

26.9 2.2

27.1 2.4

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.7 19.8 1.5

3.7 19.9 1.5

3.8 20.1 1.6

3.9 20.3 1.6

4 20.4 1.6

4.1 20.5 1.7

4.1 20.6 1.7

4.2 20.6 1.7

4.3 20.7 1.7

4.4 20.8 1.8

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.5 2

1.5 1.6

1.5 0.5

1.5 2

1.6 2.7

1.6 2.2

1.6 2.8

1.6 1.7

1.6 0.7

1.6 0.6

1.6 2.3

1.6 3.6

1.6 3.7

1.6 3.5

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.2 1.5

7.2 1

7.3 1.1

7.3 2.4

7.3 1.7

7.3 1.3

7.4 1.3

7.4 1.6

7.4 1.5

7.4 1.3

7.4 0.7

7.4 0

7.4 -0.6

7.3 -1.3

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

14.3 4.7

14.3 2.1

14.4 1.7

14.5 2.3

14.6 2

14.7 2.5

14.9 3.5

15 3.7

15.2 4.2

15.4 4.9

15.6 4.9

15.7 4.7

15.8 3.8

15.8 2.7

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

18.7 2.5

19 2

19.1 3

19.3 4.4

19.3 3.2

19.3 1.7

19.4 1.7

19.6 1.6

19.8 2.5

20 3.8

20.1 3.2

20.2 2.7

20.3 2.2

20.4 1.7

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

25.2 2.3

25.4 0

25.6 0.6

25.8 2.6

26 3.2

26.2 3.1

26.3 3

26.4 2

26.3 1.1

26.3 0.4

26.5 0.6

26.7 1.4

27 2.4

27.2 3.5

8.3 5.4

8.4 2.4

8.4 2.7

8.5 2.4

8.6 2.6

8.6 2.8

8.7 2.4

8.7 2.6

8.8 2.8

8.9 3.1

8.9 3.3

9 3.1

9.1 2.9

9.1 2.7

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

0.6 -3.3

0.6 -4.1

0.6 -1

0.6 1.8

0.6 1.5

0.6 2.4

0.6 1.5

0.6 0.3

0.6 0.2

0.6 0.1

0.6 0.2

0.6 0.1

0.6 -0.1

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

12.5 3.2

12.6 1.7

12.6 1.2

12.7 1.8

12.7 1.7

12.8 1.7

12.8 1.8

12.9 1.8

13 2.1

13.1 2.2

13.2 2.4

13.3 2.5

13.4 2.8

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

348.3 2

350.3 2.1

352.3 2.2

354.6 2.4

356.9 2.5

359.4 2.6

361.9 2.7

364.6 2.8

367.2 2.9

369.9 2.9

372.5 2.9

375.2 2.9

377.9 2.9

380.6 2.9

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

162.5 4.3

164.4 4.7

166.4 4.2

168.2 4.3

170.1 4.7

172 4.6

173.6 4.3

174.9 4

176.4 3.7

178 3.5

179.5 3.4

181.1 3.6

182.6 3.5

184.1 3.4

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.7

5.6

5.5

5.7

5.8

5.9

2430 2114 315

2889 2215 675

3473 2334 1139

4092 2404 1688

4467 2522 1945

4662 2588 2073

4771 2620 2150

4804 2602 2202

4961 2724 2236

5064 2827 2237

4995 2797 2198

4912 2741 2171

4934 2735 2198

4961 2742 2218

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

O cala

PROFILES

O U T L O O K S U MM A R I E S

Comprised of Marion County only; the Ocala MSA is located northwest of the Orlando area and is in the center of the state. The second largest national forest in Florida, the Ocala National Forest, and Silver Springs are two main outdoor attractions in the area.

The Ocala Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show varying strengths and weaknesses in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to average 5.6 percent annually, the third highest of the twelve metros. Real per capita income level is the second lowest of the twelve metros at an average of $32,700. Relative to other metro areas, Ocala will have the second lowest average annual wage level at $41,500. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.4 percent, the third highest of the MSAs. The metro has an expected annual average population growth of 2.0 percent. The Gross Metro Product is expected to average 7,727.44 million dollars, which is the lowest of the studied areas.

QUICK FACTS:

• Population estimate of 331,298 as of 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 132,795 in August 2014 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

• An unemployment rate of 7.8% as of August 2014, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 10,370 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Marion County School Board – 6,071

• Munroe Regional Medical Center – 2,648 • State of Florida (all departments) – 2,600 • Wal-Mart – 2,370

• Ocala Regional Health System – 2,020 • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 1,488

• Marion County Board of County Commissioners – 1,462 • AT&T – 1,000

• City of Ocala – 994 • Lockheed MartinEmployees – 981 Source: Ocala/Marion County Chamber & Economic Partnership

Employment growth is expected to average a rate of 2.0 percent annually. The unemployment rate is estimated to average 7.1 percent, the highest of the researched areas.

The Construction and Mining Services sector is expected to be the fastest growing in Ocala, averaging an annual growth rate of 8.6 percent. This is followed by the Professional and Business Services sector with 4.0 percent average annual growth. Growth in the Information, Manufacturing, and Financial Activities sectors will be -0.8 percent, -0.1 percent, and -0.2 percent, respectively.

M E T R O N E W S S U MM A R I E S CHS settles with feds: $98M for bad billing

• Community Health Systems, the Tennesseebased for-profit healthcare company now leasing Munroe Regional Medical Center, agreed to pay more than $98 million to the federal government to settle allegations that it improperly billed government healthcare programs.

• The settlement follows a US Justice Department investigation that 119 CHS hospitals overcharged Medicaid, Medicare and Tricare between 2005 and 2010. • Several whistle-blowers alleged CHS hospitals admitted patients through their 64

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2014

O cala

emergency departments and then billed Medicare, Medicaid and Tricare for “medically unnecessary” inpatient stays or procedures when patients should have been treated as outpatient or for observation, according to a Justice Department press release.

• CHS began its 40-year-lease of Munroe in April, and last year put aside $102 million for a potential settlement. The settlement does not end the government’s probe into the billing practices. Source: Ocala Star Banner, August 5, 2014 Percentage of Marion residents in poverty on rise

• In all, 19.5 percent of Marion residents lived in poverty in 2013, an increase from 15.6 percent in 2009 and 18.3 percent in 2012. • In a related statistic, 14.8 percent of Marion County families lived in poverty in 2013. That number was just 11 percent in 2009 and 12.7 percent in 2012.

• For a family of four with two children to be considered living in poverty, the family income would have to be less than $23,624 per year.

• What is being observed in Marion County is not people losing their jobs, but seeing less full-time work coupled with increasing housing rental rates. Source: Ocala Star Banner, September 18, 2014 State: Marion unemployment at 7.8 percent

• Marion County’s jobless rate this past August was 7.8 percent, down from 8.3 percent in August 2013.

• In August, nonfarm employment in the Ocala MSA was 91,500, representing a 1.3 percent loss of 1,200 jobs over the year, but an increase of 1,000 jobs compared to July. • Industries in the Ocala metropolitan statistical area that gained jobs in August were manufacturing and trade and transportation and utilities. Source: Ocala Star Banner, September 19, 2014 SR 200 retail corridor turning a corner

• Activity appears to be picking up again in Marion County’s busiest of retail corridors: a 10-mile stretch of State Road 200 on either side of Interstate 75. • Nick Robinson, director of Front Street Commercial Real Estate Group in Ocala, said retailers’ interest in State Road 200 corridor has to do with two different demographics.

• To the west of I-75,are relatively affluent seniors. Robinson says that, “Their disposable income levels are quite a bit higher than the disposable income levels on the east side of the interstate and frankly, they’re better than the state and national average,”. • Along the corridor east of I-75 is a diverse population. Robinson says “The demographics are pulled everywhere from people who live on horse farms on (county roads) 475A and 475 to some of the multi-family residences like Steeplechase.” Source: Ocala Star Banner, September 26, 2014

• Figures released by the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity show 10,370 people in Marion County were reported as unemployed in August, down 772 from the same time last year. The number of people with jobs increased yearover-year by 73 to 122,425.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

O cala Ocala MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Ocala Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

0.8

1.6

1.8

8500.0

(Millions 2000 $)

8000.0

6500.0 6000.0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 FL Unemployment Rate Ocala Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

100.0 95.0 90.0 85.0

1.4

7000.0

105.0

80.0

1.2

Ocala Real Gross Metro Product

5500.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Ocala Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2014

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Gross Metro Product

Ocala Real Personal Income

Ocala Payroll Employment 110.0

7500.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

0.6

12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

(percent change year ago)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Personal Income

O cala

Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL

October 2014

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

10.2 -3.3 3.4 6.9 9.4 -3.2 30.9 28.5 36.1 0.3

10.7 4.6 3.3 7.4 9.7 2.9 32.2 29.2 36.4 0.9

11.5 7.2 3.4 8.1 10.2 4.7 34.4 30.5 37.1 1.9

11.9 3.9 3.5 8.5 10.4 2.0 35.5 30.9 37.7 1.6

12.2 2.7 3.6 8.7 10.5 1.6 36.3 31.2 38.2 1.4

12.8 4.3 3.7 9.1 10.8 2.7 37.4 31.7 39.4 3.1

13.4 4.7 3.9 9.5 11.2 3.3 38.4 32.2 40.6 2.9

14.2 6.5 4.1 10.1 11.8 5.0 40.0 33.0 42.1 3.8

15.3 7.1 4.4 10.8 12.4 5.5 41.8 34.0 43.8 4.0

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 92.6 90.3 89.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -8.6 -2.4 -0.6 Manufacturing 6.7 6.4 6.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -19.3 -3.8 0.5 Nonmanufacturing 85.9 83.9 83.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -7.7 -2.3 -0.7 Construction & Mining 7.3 6.3 5.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -24.3 -13.7 -9.8 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 20.2 19.8 20.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -9.9 -2.0 2.3 Wholesale Trade 3.5 3.4 3.3 Retail Trade 14.5 14.4 14.7 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 2.1 2.1 2.3 Information 1.2 1.0 1.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -16.1 -14.9 0.1 Financial Activities 5.1 4.2 4.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -13.3 -18.6 0.8 Prof & Business Services 8.3 7.9 7.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.3 -4.4 0.3 Educ & Health Services 12.9 13.4 13.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.3 4.1 3.0 Leisure & Hospitality 10.0 10.1 10.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.8 0.9 0.5 Other Services 3.3 3.4 3.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -8.3 0.7 -6.1 Federal Government 0.7 0.9 0.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 27.6 -24.3 State & Local Government 16.9 16.9 16.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.4 0.3 -3.0

91.0 1.4 6.7 4.6 84.3 1.2 5.4 -5.8 20.9 3.4 3.4 14.9 2.7 0.9 -9.9 4.2 -0.2 8.6 8.3 14.3 3.1 10.4 2.3 2.8 -11.6 0.7 0.0 16.2 -1.3

92.5 1.6 6.9 2.6 85.6 1.6 5.7 7.0 21.5 2.8 3.4 15.1 3.0 0.9 -3.7 4.2 0.0 9.0 4.7 14.3 0.5 10.6 2.5 2.8 0.6 0.7 0.0 15.8 -2.3

92.7 0.2 6.9 0.1 85.8 0.3 5.9 2.2 21.9 1.6 3.4 15.3 3.2 0.8 -4.7 4.1 -1.8 9.0 0.4 14.3 -0.3 10.7 1.1 2.8 1.1 0.7 0.1 15.5 -1.8

95.1 2.5 7.0 0.8 88.1 2.7 6.4 9.4 22.3 2.1 3.5 15.5 3.4 0.8 1.6 4.2 1.0 9.5 4.7 14.7 2.5 11.0 2.4 2.9 1.9 0.7 1.4 15.7 0.8

97.6 2.7 6.9 -0.8 90.7 3.0 7.2 12.3 22.8 2.1 3.7 15.6 3.5 0.8 -1.8 4.2 0.9 10.0 6.0 15.0 2.1 11.1 1.5 3.0 2.4 0.7 0.2 15.9 1.3

100.1 2.5 6.9 -0.6 93.2 2.8 7.9 10.4 23.2 1.9 3.8 15.7 3.7 0.8 1.8 4.2 -0.8 10.5 4.7 15.3 2.2 11.3 1.8 3.0 2.3 0.7 -0.3 16.2 1.9

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

335.4 0.7 133.1 -0.6 10.2 404.3 402.9 1

337.8 0.7 132.3 -0.6 8.3 595.3 577.6 18

341.6 1.1 132.3 0.0 7.1 773.9 740.0 34

347.9 1.8 133.2 0.7 7.0 1966.0 1813.0 153

356.1 2.4 134.4 0.9 7.2 3250.9 3061.2 190

365.2 2.5 136.3 1.4 7.2 3345.4 3161.2 184

331.1 0.3 135.2 -2.2 12.6 408.5 391.0 17

332.1 0.3 134.7 -0.3 13.4 494.1 491.8 2

333.0 0.3 133.9 -0.6 12.1 359.0 356.1 3

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

O cala

Quarterly Outlook for Ocala, FL

October 2014

2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

12.9 4.7 3.7 9.2

13 4.6 3.8 9.2

13.2 5.4 3.8 9.4

13.3 4.8 3.9 9.4

13.4 3.8 3.9 9.5

13.6 4.8 4 9.6

13.9 5.4 4 9.9

14.1 6.2 4.1 10

14.3 6.9 4.2 10.2

14.6 7.4 4.2 10.4

14.9 7.4 4.3 10.6

15.2 7.5 4.4 10.8

15.4 7.2 4.4 10.9

15.6 6.5 4.5 11.1

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

10.9 3

10.9 2.8

11.1 3.7

11.1 3.4

11.2 2.6

11.3 3.7

11.5 4.1

11.7 4.8

11.8 5.5

12 5.8

12.2 5.8

12.4 5.9

12.5 5.5

12.6 4.9

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

37.8 31.9

37.8 31.8

38.2 32.1

38.3 32.1

38.5 32.1

38.8 32.3

39.3 32.6

39.7 32.9

40.2 33.1

40.7 33.4

41.2 33.7

41.7 33.9

42 34.1

42.2 34.1

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

39.8 4.2

40 4.1

40.2 4.2

40.4 2.7

40.6 2.1

41 2.6

41.4 3.2

41.9 3.7

42.3 4.1

42.7 4.1

43.1 4

43.5 4

44 4

44.4 4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

92.8 0

93.6 0.9

94.2 1.9

94.8 2.9

95.4 2.8

95.9 2.4

96.6 2.6

97.3 2.6

98 2.7

98.7 2.9

99.3 2.8

99.9 2.7

100.4 2.5

100.9 2.3

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

6.9 0.8

7 1

7 1.7

7 1

7 0.7

6.9 -0.3

6.9 -0.6

6.9 -1

6.9 -0.8

6.9 -0.7

6.9 -0.5

6.9 -0.4

6.9 -0.6

6.8 -0.8

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

85.9 0

86.7 0.9

87.2 1.9

87.9 3.1

88.4 2.9

89 2.7

89.7 2.8

90.3 2.8

91.1 3

91.8 3.2

92.4 3.1

93 2.9

93.5 2.7

94.1 2.5

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

5.8 -0.2

6.1 4.4

6.2 6.7

6.3 10

6.5 11.5

6.7 9.5

6.8 10.6

7.1 12

7.3 13.1

7.6 13.5

7.8 13.5

7.9 11.9

8 9.5

8.1 7.2

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

21.9 0.9

22 0.4

22.2 1.4

22.2 2.4

22.4 2.2

22.5 2.2

22.6 2.1

22.7 2.3

22.9 2.1

22.9 1.9

23 1.9

23.2 1.8

23.3 1.9

23.4 2.1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.4 15.3 3.2

3.5 15.4 3.3

3.5 15.5 3.3

3.5 15.5 3.4

3.6 15.5 3.4

3.6 15.6 3.4

3.6 15.6 3.5

3.7 15.7 3.5

3.7 15.7 3.6

3.8 15.7 3.6

3.8 15.7 3.7

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

0.8 -7.5

0.8 -3.5

0.8 0.8

0.8 2.6

0.8 2.7

0.8 0.4

0.8 -0.1

0.8 -2.2

0.8 -2.9

0.8 -2.2

0.8 0.4

0.8 2.2

0.8 2.5

0.8 2.2

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

4.1 -0.8

4.2 -0.3

4.2 0.6

4.2 1.8

4.2 1

4.2 0.6

4.2 0.7

4.2 1

4.2 0.9

4.2 0.8

4.2 0.2

4.2 -0.5

4.2 -1.2

4.1 -1.8

9.1 1.6

9.2 2.2

9.3 3.5

9.4 4.8

9.5 4.9

9.7 5.6

9.8 6.1

10 5.9

10.1 5.9

10.3 6

10.4 5.7

10.5 5.3

10.5 4.4

10.6 3.5

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

14.3 -0.4

14.5 0.5

14.6 2.1

14.7 4

14.7 2.8

14.7 1.3

14.8 1.4

14.9 1.3

15 2.2

15.2 3.6

15.2 3

15.3 2.4

15.3 1.9

15.4 1.4

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

10.7 0.3

10.8 1.3

10.9 1.8

10.9 2.3

11 2.7

11.1 2.7

11.2 2.7

11.2 1.9

11.1 1.1

11.1 0.4

11.2 0.5

11.3 1.3

11.4 2.2

11.5 3.1

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

2.8 1.7

2.8 1.4

2.9 1.6

2.9 2

2.9 2.3

2.9 2.1

2.9 2.2

3 2.4

3 2.7

3 2.5

3 2.2

3 1.9

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

0.7 0.7

0.7 -0.7

0.7 0.7

0.7 1.6

0.7 1.2

0.7 2.3

0.7 1.3

0.7 -0.1

0.7 -0.2

0.7 -0.3

0.7 -0.2

0.7 -0.3

0.7 -0.5

15.5 -1.8

15.6 -0.1

15.6 0.5

15.6 1

15.7 0.8

15.7 0.9

15.8 1.1

15.8 1.3

15.9 1.5

16 1.5

16 1.7

16.1 1.9

16.2 2

16.3 2.2

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

342.1 1.2

343.5 1.4

345.1 1.6

346.9 1.8

348.7 1.9

350.8 2.1

352.8 2.2

355 2.3

357.2 2.4

359.4 2.5

361.7 2.5

364 2.5

366.3 2.6

368.6 2.6

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

132.2 0

132.4 0.8

132.7 0.5

132.9 0.3

133.4 0.9

133.8 1

134 1

134.1 0.9

134.4 0.8

134.9 0.8

135.4 1

136 1.4

136.6 1.6

137.2 1.7

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%)

7.1

6.9

6.7

6.9

7.1

7.2

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

736 720 16

1039 989 50

1413 1313 100

1751 1595 157

2148 1973 175

2552 2371 180

2928 2741 187

3237 3047 190

3367 3175 192

3472 3282 190

3421 3237 185

3337 3153 184

3313 3129 184

3310 3125 185

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2014

O r lan d o – K issi m m ee

PROFILES

O U T L O O K S U MM A R I E S

The Orlando–Kissimmee MSA is comprised of Lake, Orange, Osceola and Seminole Counties. Located in the southern center of the state, this area is home to numerous tourist attractions such as Walt Disney World, Universal Studios and Sea World. It is also home to the Orlando Magic and the Orlando City Soccer Club. Orlando hosts many conventions utilizing some of the biggest hotels in the country and America’s second largest convention center. The University of Central Florida, the nation’s second largest university, and many other places of higher education also reside in the MSA.

The Orlando–Kissimmee area is expected to show varying strengths and weaknesses in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to average 6.0 percent annually, the second highest of the twelve Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). The real per capita income level is expected to average $33,500. Average annual wage growth will be 3.0 percent. The average annual wage will be at a level of $48,300. The Orlando MSA will see an average population growth of 2.1 percent, the second highest of the studied MSAs. Gross Metro Product is expected to average at 117,258.12 million dollars, the third highest of the MSAs. Employment growth is forecasted to average 3.0 percent annually, the second highest of the MSAs. The metro will see an average unemployment rate of 5.5 percent. In the Orlando area, the fastest growing sector is expected to be the Construction and Mining sector with an average annual growth rate of 10.2 percent. This will be followed by the Professional and Business sector, with an average annual growth rate of 4.3 percent, and the Trade, Transportation, & Utilities sector at 3.0 percent. None of the sectors are expected to decline.

QUICK FACTS: • • • • • • •

MSA population estimate of 2,171,360 for 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). Lake County population estimate of 296,681 for 2011 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). Orange County population estimate of 1,189,722 for 2012 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). Osceola County population estimate of 275,010 for 2011 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). Seminole County population estimate of 429,169 for 2011 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). Civilian labor force of 1,218,141 in August 2014 (Florida Research and Economic Database). An unemployment rate of 6.3% as of August 2014, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 76,203 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database).

TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: • Walt Disney World Resort – 69,000 • Orange County Public Schools – 22,000 • Florida Hospital (Adventist Health) – 17,600 • Universal Orlando (Comcast) – 17,300 • Orlando Health – 14,310 • University of Central Florida – 11,078 • Seminole County Public Schools – 7,786 • Orange County Government – 7,553 • Darden Restaurants Inc. – 7,600 • Osceola County Public Schools – 6,560 • SeaWorld Parks & Entertainment – 6,032 • Lockheed Martin Corporation – 5,774

M E T R O N E W S S U MM A R I E S Orlando board OKs I-Drive megamall, hotel project • On July 15 the iSquare Mall & Hotel project got recommended approval from the city of Orlando Municipal Planning Board on its master plan for a multilevel shopping center and 26-story hotel. • The project is expected to create an estimated 2000-plus jobs. It will include 749 hotel rooms, 490,213 square feet of retail space, a 500-seat live performance theatre, office space, and an 11-story parking garage.

• The $300-$400 million dollar project will be developed by The Blackmire Group and is expected to take two or three years to complete. Source: Orlando Business Journal, July 15, 2014

Source: Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission 2013 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

O r lan d o – K issi m m ee

Universal theme parks’ 2Q biz jumps nearly 13%

• Universal Parks & Resorts showed a 12.6 percent revenue increase with the quarter ended June 30, posting $615 million in revenue compared to $546 million in Q2 2013.

• Year-to-date revenue for the theme park division of the company is $1.1 billion, up 10 percent from $1 billion at the same point a year ago. • Comcast, the parent company of Universal Parks & Resorts and NBC Universal showed capital expenditures of $298 million for the quarter. Michael Angelakis, Comcast’s Vice Chairman and CFO attributed the high expenditure to new attractions including the Diagon Alley expansion and additions to other Universal theme parks. Source: Orlando Business Journal, July 22, 2014 SeaWorld stock tanks after low earnings

• SeaWorld reported lower-than-expected second quarter earnings, leading to a 33 percent plunge in the company’s stock price. Overall attendance at the company’s 11 parks increased only 0.3 percent, and revenue dropped from $411.3 million to $405.2 million. • The company lowered its financial projects for the year, reporting profit of $37.3 million—an improvement over Q2 2013’s $14.9 million net loss, but far below analysts’ forecasts.

• The company cited several reasons, including publicity surrounding its captive killer whales, the late start of summer break for Northern schools, and competition from Walt Disney World’s Fantasyland expansion. They did not cite the 2013 documentary “Blackfish” directly. Source: Orlando Sentinel, August 13, 2014 Hitt: UCF downtown campus could be a $200M project

• At a press conference following the September 23rd announcement that UCF will pursue a downtown Orlando campus, UCF President 70

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2014

John Hitt said the project could be $150 million to $200 million overall.

• UCF will ask the Florida Legislature for $50 million to $60 million in the 2015 session. The campus will be modeled after Arizona State University’s downtown campus.

• Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer doesn’t expect the city to put in any money for the project. Hitt stated the university is likely to rely on private developers for things like housing. Source: Orlando Business Journal, September 24, 2014 First look at possible $24.2M UCF boutique hotel

• The University of Central Florida is expected to negotiate a contract with KUD International LLC for a $24.2 million boutique hotel and conference center.

• The hotel is expected to be 6-stories, with 100 to 130 rooms. 15,000 square feet of conference space will function for ballrooms, special events, and weddings. A 4,000-square-foot outdoor events pavilion is also planned. • KUD will pay UCF a minimum of $7.5 million over the 50-year land lease, or 1 percent gross revenue, whichever is greater. A protest to the contract has been filed by another bidding firm, University Hotel & Learning Center. Source: Orlando Business Journal, September 25, 2014

O r lan d o â&#x20AC;&#x201C; K issi m m ee Orlando - Kissimmee MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Orlando Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

10.0%

0.8

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Orlando Real Gross Metro Product 130000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

120000.0

100000.0

6.0%

90000.0

4.0%

80000.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 FL Unemployment Rate Orlando Unemployment Rate

70000.0

(Thousands)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Gross Metro Product

Orlando Real Personal Income

Orlando Payroll Employment 1250.0 1200.0 1150.0 1100.0 1050.0 1000.0 950.0 900.0 850.0

110000.0

8.0%

2.0%

0.6

12.0%

(percent change year ago)

9.0% 6.0% 3.0% 0.0% -3.0% -6.0% 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 OrlandoPayroll Employment

-9.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

O r lan d o â&#x20AC;&#x201C; K issi m m ee

Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL

October 2014

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

70.9 -5.1 42.0 28.9 65.4 -5.0 33.5 30.9 41.9 -0.6

73.7 3.9 42.3 31.3 66.8 2.2 34.3 31.2 42.5 1.3

77.1 4.7 43.8 33.4 68.4 2.3 35.4 31.3 43.3 2.0

81.0 5.0 46.2 34.8 70.5 3.1 36.3 31.6 44.6 2.9

84.0 3.8 48.3 35.7 72.3 2.6 37.0 31.8 45.2 1.3

88.7 5.5 51.2 37.5 75.2 4.0 38.3 32.4 46.2 2.3

93.0 4.9 53.9 39.1 77.8 3.5 39.3 32.9 47.2 2.3

99.1 6.5 57.3 41.9 81.8 5.1 41.0 33.9 48.9 3.5

106.1 7.1 61.0 45.2 86.3 5.5 43.0 35.0 50.8 3.9

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 997.5 992.3 1005.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.3 -0.5 1.3 Manufacturing 38.7 38.0 38.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -9.6 -1.8 0.1 Nonmanufacturing 958.8 954.3 967.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.2 -0.5 1.4 Construction & Mining 54.5 47.7 45.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -25.0 -12.5 -5.2 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 186.0 186.0 191.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -7.4 0.0 3.2 Wholesale Trade 40.4 38.4 38.4 Retail Trade 115.5 117.9 123.3 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 30.1 29.7 30.2 Information 24.8 23.8 24.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.5 -4.0 0.9 Financial Activities 65.9 65.1 65.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.3 -1.1 1.1 Prof & Business Services 164.1 161.1 161.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -7.0 -1.8 0.5 Educ & Health Services 118.4 120.8 123.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.7 2.0 2.2 Leisure & Hospitality 190.1 195.6 203.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.7 2.9 4.1 Other Services 39.4 38.5 36.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -9.0 -2.3 -5.1 Federal Government 12.1 12.8 12.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.6 5.7 -6.0 State & Local Government 103.6 102.9 103.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.5 -0.7 0.2

1031.9 2.6 38.0 -0.1 993.9 2.7 46.2 2.2 198.1 3.2 39.0 128.1 30.9 23.6 -1.7 67.2 2.1 169.3 4.6 128.1 3.7 210.2 3.3 34.8 -4.7 12.3 2.7 104.0 0.9

1065.0 3.2 38.1 0.4 1026.9 3.3 51.1 10.7 203.7 2.8 40.0 132.5 31.2 23.7 0.6 69.6 3.6 175.6 3.7 131.2 2.4 219.2 4.3 35.6 2.3 12.4 0.4 104.7 0.7

1105.1 3.8 39.4 3.4 1065.7 3.8 55.7 8.9 212.5 4.4 42.0 138.5 32.4 24.4 2.9 70.5 1.2 184.3 5.0 134.4 2.4 229.8 4.9 36.2 1.5 12.3 -0.5 105.7 0.9

1137.5 2.9 39.9 1.1 1097.6 3.0 60.9 9.3 218.8 2.9 44.0 141.5 33.8 24.8 1.6 71.4 1.3 190.6 3.4 138.9 3.4 236.2 2.8 36.8 1.8 12.4 0.7 106.9 1.2

1167.1 2.6 39.8 -0.1 1127.2 2.7 68.2 12.0 223.4 2.1 46.2 142.6 35.3 24.9 0.3 72.0 0.9 199.3 4.6 142.2 2.4 239.2 1.3 37.6 2.0 12.4 0.0 108.2 1.2

1196.7 2.5 39.8 -0.1 1156.9 2.6 75.4 10.6 227.6 1.8 48.3 142.9 36.5 25.5 2.5 71.6 -0.5 208.0 4.4 145.1 2.1 243.0 1.6 38.3 2.1 12.3 -0.4 110.1 1.8

2228.7 2.2 1142.6 1.2 8.7 10880.9 7196.0 3685

2272.9 2.0 1161.4 1.6 6.9 14748.4 9338.6 5410

2316.8 1.9 1197.5 3.1 5.8 14105.4 9663.6 4442

2364.9 2.1 1235.0 3.1 5.5 19105.1 12292.6 6812

2415.0 2.1 1267.1 2.6 5.4 22339.8 15829.1 6511

2467.4 2.2 1294.3 2.1 5.3 22328.8 16107.3 6222

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

2115.7 1.2 1106.3 -1.1 10.3 4489.2 3763.3 726

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2014

2144.4 1.4 1116.8 0.9 11.2 5003.1 4409.7 593

2181.3 1.7 1128.8 1.1 10.2 5734.9 4480.9 1254

O r lan d o â&#x20AC;&#x201C; K issi m m ee

Quarterly Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL

October 2014

2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

89.7 5.9 51.7 37.9

90.3 5.5 52.4 37.9

91.5 5.8 52.9 38.6

92.4 4.7 53.5 38.9

93.5 4.2 54.2 39.3

94.8 4.9 55 39.8

96.7 5.6 55.9 40.7

98.2 6.2 56.8 41.4

99.9 6.9 57.7 42.2

101.7 7.3 58.6 43.1

103.7 7.3 59.6 44.1

105.4 7.4 60.5 44.9

106.9 7 61.4 45.5

108.4 6.6 62.3 46.1

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

75.8 4.2

76.1 3.7

76.9 4.1

77.5 3.3

78 3

79 3.8

80.2 4.3

81.2 4.8

82.3 5.5

83.5 5.7

84.8 5.7

85.9 5.8

86.8 5.4

87.6 5

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

38.6 32.6

38.7 32.6

39 32.8

39.2 32.8

39.4 32.9

39.8 33.1

40.3 33.5

40.8 33.7

41.3 34

41.8 34.3

42.4 34.7

42.8 34.9

43.2 35.1

43.6 35.2

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

46.4 2.9

46.6 2.5

46.8 2.7

47 1.9

47.3 2

47.7 2.4

48.2 2.9

48.6 3.5

49.1 3.8

49.6 3.9

50.1 3.9

50.5 3.9

51 3.9

51.5 3.8

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

1111.6 3.8

1119.4 3.8

1125.9 3.5

1134.3 3

1141.7 2.7

1148.1 2.6

1156 2.7

1163.4 2.6

1170.6 2.5

1178.3 2.6

1186.2 2.6

1193.6 2.6

1200.3 2.5

1206.6 2.4

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

39.4 2.9

39.7 2.5

39.8 1.6

39.9 1.4

39.9 1.2

39.9 0.4

39.9 0.2

39.8 -0.3

39.8 -0.2

39.8 -0.1

39.8 0

39.8 -0.1

39.7 -0.2

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

1072.2 3.8

1079.7 3.8

1086.1 3.6

1094.4 3

1101.8 2.8

1108.2 2.6

1116.1 2.8

1123.5 2.7

1130.8 2.6

1138.5 2.7

1146.4 2.7

1153.8 2.7

1160.5 2.6

1166.9 2.5

56.5 9.1

57.3 8.1

58.6 9.1

59.9 8.4

61.5 8.9

63.4 10.6

65.2 11.2

67 11.9

69 12.2

71.5 12.7

73.4 12.5

74.9 11.7

76.1 10.4

77.1 7.9

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

214.1 4.1

215.4 4.7

217 4.1

218 2.8

219.4 2.5

220.7 2.5

221.8 2.2

223 2.3

224.1 2.1

224.9 1.9

225.8 1.8

226.9 1.7

228.1 1.8

229.4 2

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

42.4 139.6 32.6

42.8 140.4 33

43.3 141.4 33.4

43.7 141.2 33.6

44.3 141.7 34

44.9 141.7 34.3

45.4 142 34.6

46 142.4 35.1

46.5 142.8 35.5

47.1 142.9 35.8

47.6 142.8 36.1

48 142.8 36.4

48.5 143 36.6

49 143.1 36.8

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

24.5 2.8

24.9 4.1

24.5 1.8

24.6 1.5

25 1.9

25.2 1.2

24.9 1.7

24.8 0.6

24.9 -0.4

25 -0.6

25.2 1.2

25.4 2.7

25.6 3

25.8 3

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

70.5 0.7

71 0.3

71.3 1.4

71.3 1.8

71.4 1.3

71.4 0.7

71.7 0.6

72 0.9

72.1 1

72.1 0.5

71.8 -0.2

71.5 -0.9

71.1 -1.4

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

186.2 5.4

187.3 5.4

188 4.2

189.9 3.6

191.6 2.9

192.8 2.9

195.3 3.9

198 4.2

200.6 4.7

203.3 5.5

206 5.5

207.8 5

208.7 4

209.5 3

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

134.9 3

136.4 3.4

137.6 3.6

139.3 4.5

139.5 3.4

139.1 2

140.3 1.9

141.7 1.7

142.7 2.3

144 3.5

144.4 2.9

144.8 2.2

145.3 1.8

145.9 1.3

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

231 4.8

232.6 3.9

233.7 3.6

235.4 2.4

237.1 2.6

238.7 2.6

239.6 2.6

239.3 1.7

239.1 0.9

238.7 0

239.9 0.1

241.8 1

244 2.1

246.2 3.1

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

36.2 1.2

36.3 1.1

36.5 1.1

36.7 1.9

36.9 2.1

37.1 2.2

37.3 2

37.5 2

37.7 1.9

37.9 2

38.1 2.1

38.3 2.1

38.4 2.1

38.6 2

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

12.4 0.5

12.3 -0.2

12.3 0.6

12.4 0.7

12.4 0.4

12.4 1.1

12.4 0.6

12.4 -0.1

12.4 -0.3

12.4 -0.4

12.4 -0.3

12.3 -0.4

12.3 -0.6

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

106 0.9

106.3 1.4

106.5 1.6

106.7 1.1

107 0.9

107.4 1

107.6 1.1

108 1.1

108.4 1.2

108.7 1.2

109.2 1.5

109.8 1.7

110.3 1.8

110.9 2.1

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2322.4 1.9

2334.2 2

2346.3 2

2358.5 2.1

2371.2 2.1

2383.8 2.1

2396.3 2.1

2408.7 2.1

2421.2 2.1

2433.7 2.1

2447.3 2.1

2460.7 2.2

2474 2.2

2487.4 2.2

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1203.1 3.4

1211.9 4.1

1221 3.7

1229.6 2.6

1239.9 3.1

1249.4 3.1

1257.1 3

1263 2.7

1270.1 2.4

1278.2 2.3

1284.9 2.2

1291.3 2.2

1297.4 2.1

1303.4 2

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.8

5.6

5.4

5.5

5.6

5.5

5.4

5.3

13135 9066 4068

14856 9881 4975

16802 10881 5921

18756 11594 7162

19981 12773 7208

20881 13923 6958

21639 14907 6732

22122 15582 6539

22602 16158 6445

22996 16669 6327

22694 16475 6219

22228 16062 6167

22177 15955 6221

22217 15938 6279

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

P al m B a y – Melbou r ne – T itusville

PROFILES

O U T L O O K S U MM A R I E S

The Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville MSA is comprised of Brevard County only. Typically known as “Florida’s Space Coast”, this area is home to the Kennedy Space Center. Located in the central part of Florida’s east coast, the region is home to Cape Canaveral Air Force Base, Patrick Air Force Base and government contractors such as Harris Corporation. Like much of Florida, this area is growing fast; Port Canaveral is now a leading cruise ship port.

The Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to see moderate growth in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to average 4.8 percent each year. Real per capita income levels should average $35,800. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.9 percent. Average annual wage levels should be at $51,000. Population growth is expected to be an average of 1.2 percent, and the Gross Metro Product level is expected to average 18,821.29 million dollars.

QUICK FACTS:

• Population estimate of 543,573 as of July 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 267,678 in August 2014. (Florida Research and Economic Database).

• An unemployment rate of 7.1% as of August 2014, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 19,024 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Brevard County School Board – 9,520 • Health First, Inc. – 7,800

• Harris Corporation – 5,890

• Brevard County Government – 2,380 • Department of Defense – 2,170 • NASA – 2,067

• Eastern Florida State College – 1,590 • Rockwell Collins Inc. – 1,410

• Florida Institute Of Technology – 1,280

• Northrop Grumman Corporation – 1,345 • Brevard County Sheriff Office – 1,175 • Parrish Medical Center – 1,075

• Wuesthoff Medical Center – 1,055 Source: Brevard Economic Development Council, 2011

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2014

Employment growth is forecasted to average 1.7 percent each year. The metro will see an average unemployment rate of 6.2 percent, the third highest of the studied areas.

Construction and Mining is expected to be the fastest growing sector in the area, averaging 9.5 percent growth annually. The Professional and Business Services sector will see the second highest average annual growth rate at 3.1 percent, followed by the Other Services sector at 1.8 percent. Only the Federal Government sector will experience negative growth, at an average of -1.4 percent annually.

M E T R O N E W S S U MM A R I E S Business rises with the size of the waves

• The summer tropical storms have actually helped business for some retailers and restaurants on the beaches of Brevard County.

• Additional business is coming from travelers who are drawn to the coast because of the large waves and surfing conditions resulting from the storms in the Atlantic. • When the conditions are right, visitors can come from as far away as Alabama or Georgia, but there is also usually a good crowd from the Orlando area. Source: Florida today, July 1, 2014

P al m B a y – Melbou r ne – T itusville

Northrop reiterates commitment to Florida

• Northrop Grumman Corp. is planning a major expansion in Melbourne at Melbourne International Airport.

• This could lead to an additional 1,500 jobs through a variety of military contracts involving engineering and design work.

• Despite media reports about heated competition over a $55-billion contract for a fleet of stealth bombers, which may influence the company’s expansion in Melbourne, Grumman reiterated its commitment to the Melbourne expansion. Source: Florida Today, July 9, 2014 Brevard Achievement Center earns $11.2 million contract

• The Florida Department of Transportation awarded Brevard Achievement Center a sevenyear, $11.2 million contract to provide janitorial and minor maintenance services to restaurants and weigh stations in Hillsborough, Marion, Pasco, and Sumter Counties. • This will lead to 80 new hires, 60 of which will be people with disabilities. • Brevard Achievement Center works through RESPECT of Florida, a nonprofit retailer of various hygiene products that helps to employ more than 1,400 Floridians with disabilities.

Source: Florida Today, July 8, 2014 2015 looks like another big year at Port Canaveral • This year has been very active for Port Canaveral, and Jon Walsh, the Port’s chief executive officer, expects the growth to continue.

• There is potential for an agreement with an auto-shipping concern for a car terminal, meaning new vehicles could start being shipped to Port Canaveral from overseas to car dealers and agencies in the central and South Florida region.

• There is also talk of another new cruise terminal west of Jetty Park and near the dock of the Victory Casino gambling ship. Source: Florida Today, August 11, 2014 Palm Bay partnership means help for small biz • This year, five Palm Bay businesses received $936,000 through U.S. Small Business Administration lending programs, and an agreement has been signed for another year.

• SBA provides counseling, capital, and government contracting opportunities to help small businesses, which in turn, creates jobs.

• Palm Bay Mayor William Capote strongly supports the partnership with SBA due to the resources it provides for the small business community. Source: Florida Today, August 7, 2014 Board backs $3 million welcome center

• The Brevard County tourism board approved an upscale plan for the visitor center instead of downgrading to a less expensive version.

• Now the Brevard County Commission needs to approve the modification in the budget, which has now reached $3 million ($700,000 more than the downgraded version). • The goal in upgrading the welcome center is to avoid making the facility look cheap and unattractive to tourists.

• If the commission approves the $3 million budget, construction could begin by the end of 2014 and the center could open by the end of the following year. Source: Florida Today, August 28, 2014

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

P al m B a y â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Melbou r ne â&#x20AC;&#x201C; T itusville Palm Bay - Melbourne - Titusville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

1.5

(percent)

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 FL Unemployment Rate Palm Bay Unemployment Rate

21000.0 20000.0 19000.0 18000.0 17000.0 16000.0 15000.0 14000.0 13000.0

(Thousands)

(Millions 2000 $)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Gross Metro Product

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Real Personal Income

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Payroll Employment 220.0 215.0 210.0 205.0 200.0 195.0 190.0 185.0

2.5

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Real Gross Metro Product

Florida & Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Unemployment Rate 12.0%

12.0%

(percent change year ago)

9.0% 6.0% 3.0% 0.0% -3.0% 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Palm Bay Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2014

-6.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Personal Income

P al m B a y – Melbou r ne – T itusville

Annual Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

October 2014

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

20.1 -2.9 9.2 10.9 18.5 -2.8 37.0 34.1 46.0 2.2

20.4 1.6 9.3 11.1 18.5 -0.1 37.4 34.0 46.8 1.7

21.2 4.3 9.3 11.9 18.8 1.8 39.0 34.6 47.3 1.0

21.8 2.5 9.4 12.4 18.9 0.6 39.7 34.6 47.4 0.1

22.1 1.4 9.4 12.6 19.0 0.3 40.0 34.4 47.9 1.0

22.7 2.9 9.6 13.1 19.3 1.4 40.8 34.6 48.7 1.7

23.6 3.9 10.1 13.5 19.7 2.5 41.8 35.0 49.8 2.3

25.0 6.0 10.7 14.3 20.6 4.5 43.8 36.1 51.7 3.7

26.6 6.5 11.3 15.3 21.6 4.9 46.1 37.4 53.7 4.0

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 196.4 194.8 194.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.1 -0.8 -0.1 Manufacturing 21.8 20.5 20.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -8.0 -5.9 1.1 Nonmanufacturing 174.6 174.3 173.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.8 -0.2 -0.3 Construction & Mining 9.9 8.7 8.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -23.8 -12.5 -5.9 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 33.3 33.0 34.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.8 -0.8 4.0 Wholesale Trade 5.2 5.0 5.2 Retail Trade 24.9 24.7 25.1 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 3.2 3.3 4.1 Information 2.6 2.4 2.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.6 -8.8 -9.0 Financial Activities 7.9 7.6 7.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.9 -3.5 -1.4 Prof & Business Services 32.3 32.5 31.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.4 0.7 -2.8 Educ & Health Services 31.2 32.3 32.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.8 3.6 1.3 Leisure & Hospitality 21.3 21.2 21.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.0 -0.4 1.6 Other Services 6.9 7.1 7.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.2 2.7 2.7 Federal Government 6.3 6.7 6.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.3 7.4 -5.3 State & Local Government 22.8 22.6 22.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.1 -0.8 -2.8

194.6 0.0 20.9 0.7 173.7 -0.1 8.4 3.0 34.9 1.6 5.2 25.5 4.2 2.1 -5.0 7.6 1.3 29.4 -7.0 32.8 0.1 22.7 5.3 7.4 0.9 6.2 -2.1 22.1 0.7

194.2 -0.2 20.1 -3.8 174.1 0.2 9.2 9.0 35.0 0.2 5.5 25.6 3.9 1.9 -6.4 7.6 -0.4 28.7 -2.4 32.9 0.5 22.9 0.8 7.4 0.7 6.2 -0.8 22.3 0.6

195.0 0.4 19.7 -1.9 175.3 0.7 9.8 7.5 35.0 0.1 5.6 26.1 3.3 1.9 -2.3 7.5 -0.9 28.4 -1.1 33.3 1.3 23.4 2.4 7.6 3.1 6.0 -2.5 22.2 -0.5

199.1 2.1 19.9 1.1 179.1 2.2 10.7 8.8 35.5 1.4 5.8 26.3 3.4 1.9 0.6 7.6 1.1 29.6 4.1 34.1 2.3 23.7 1.2 7.7 1.4 6.0 -0.7 22.3 0.5

203.5 2.2 20.1 0.5 183.4 2.4 12.0 12.0 35.9 1.3 6.1 26.3 3.5 1.9 1.5 7.7 0.7 31.1 5.3 34.7 1.6 23.9 0.6 7.8 1.1 5.9 -1.0 22.5 0.8

207.4 1.9 20.1 0.3 187.3 2.1 13.2 9.7 36.3 1.0 6.4 26.2 3.6 2.0 2.6 7.6 -0.7 32.4 4.1 35.2 1.6 24.0 0.7 7.9 1.5 5.9 -1.3 22.8 1.4

547.7 0.5 268.2 -0.3 9.3 1110.9 1106.7 4

551.5 0.7 264.0 -1.5 7.9 1346.4 1330.8 16

556.9 1.0 264.8 0.3 6.7 1363.3 1292.3 71

563.9 1.3 267.4 1.0 6.2 3134.4 2379.8 755

570.8 1.2 269.7 0.8 6.1 4728.2 3737.1 991

577.9 1.2 272.5 1.1 5.9 4818.9 3851.8 967

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

542.6 0.1 266.7 -0.7 10.3 975.0 868.7 106

544.5 0.3 267.6 0.3 11.1 1082.6 994.8 88

544.8 0.1 268.9 0.5 10.8 971.9 842.9 129

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

P al m B a y – Melbou r ne – T itusville

Quarterly Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

October 2014

2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

22.9 3.3 9.7 13.2

23 3 9.8 13.2

23.3 4 9.9 13.4

23.5 3.7 10 13.5

23.7 3.4 10.1 13.6

24 4.4 10.3 13.7

24.4 5 10.4 14

24.8 5.7 10.6 14.2

25.2 6.3 10.7 14.4

25.6 6.8 10.9 14.7

26.1 6.8 11.1 15

26.5 6.8 11.2 15.3

26.8 6.5 11.4 15.4

27.1 5.8 11.5 15.6

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

19.3 1.7

19.3 1.3

19.5 2.3

19.7 2.3

19.8 2.2

20 3.3

20.3 3.7

20.5 4.2

20.7 4.9

21 5.2

21.3 5.2

21.6 5.2

21.7 4.9

21.9 4.3

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

41 34.7

41.1 34.6

41.5 34.8

41.7 34.9

41.9 35

42.3 35.3

43 35.7

43.5 36

44 36.3

44.7 36.7

45.3 37.1

45.9 37.4

46.3 37.6

46.7 37.8

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

48.8 2.3

49.1 2.2

49.3 2.4

49.6 1.9

49.9 2.2

50.4 2.7

50.9 3.2

51.4 3.7

51.9 4

52.5 4

53 4

53.5 4

54 4

54.5 3.9

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

195.3 0.8

196.3 0.9

197.3 1.5

198.7 2.4

199.7 2.3

200.6 2.2

201.7 2.2

202.8 2.1

204.1 2.2

205.2 2.3

206.2 2.2

207.1 2.1

207.8 1.8

208.5 1.6

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

19.7 -0.7

19.8 0.1

19.9 0.5

19.9 1.4

20 1.4

20 1

20 0.8

20 0.4

20.1 0.5

20.1 0.6

20.1 0.5

20.1 0.3

20.1 0

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

175.6 1

176.5 0.9

177.5 1.6

178.7 2.5

179.7 2.4

180.6 2.3

181.7 2.4

182.8 2.3

184 2.4

185.1 2.5

186.1 2.4

186.9 2.3

187.7 2

188.4 1.7

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

9.9 6.3

10.1 7.6

10.3 7.9

10.5 7.7

10.8 9.4

11.1 10

11.4 10.8

11.8 11.8

12.2 12.5

12.6 12.7

12.9 12.6

13.1 11.1

13.3 8.8

13.4 6.7

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

35 0.2

35.1 -0.2

35.3 0.5

35.4 1.8

35.6 1.6

35.7 1.6

35.8 1.4

35.9 1.4

36 1.3

36.1 1

36.1 0.9

36.2 0.9

36.4 1

36.5 1.2

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

5.6 26.1 3.3

5.6 26.2 3.3

5.7 26.4 3.4

5.7 26.3 3.4

5.8 26.3 3.4

5.9 26.3 3.4

6 26.3 3.5

6.1 26.4 3.5

6.2 26.3 3.6

6.3 26.3 3.6

6.3 26.2 3.6

6.4 26.2 3.7

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.9 -1.6

1.9 -0.3

1.9 -1.2

1.9 0.4

1.9 1.4

1.9 1.6

1.9 2.6

1.9 2

1.9 0.9

2 0.4

2 1.8

2 2.9

2 2.7

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.5 -0.8

7.6 0.2

7.6 0.9

7.6 1.5

7.6 1.1

7.6 0.7

7.7 0.8

7.7 0.7

7.7 0.6

7.6 0.1

7.6 -0.4

7.6 -1

7.5 -1.5

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

28.6 -0.6

28.7 0.9

29 3.1

29.4 4.3

29.8 4.3

30.1 4.9

30.5 5.5

30.9 5.2

31.3 5.2

31.8 5.4

32.1 5.2

32.4 4.8

32.5 3.8

32.7 2.8

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

33.4 2.6

33.7 1.8

33.9 2.6

34.2 3.4

34.2 2.3

34.1 1

34.3 1.1

34.6 0.9

34.8 1.7

35.1 2.9

35.1 2.3

35.2 1.8

35.3 1.4

35.4 0.9

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

23.4 1.7

23.5 1.2

23.5 -0.1

23.7 1.4

23.8 1.8

23.9 1.7

23.9 0.9

23.8 0.2

23.8 -0.4

23.9 0.3

24.1 1

24.2 1.8

7.7 4.2

7.7 1.5

7.7 2.6

7.7 0.9

7.8 1

7.8 1.1

7.8 0.9

7.8 1

7.8 1.1

7.9 1.5

7.9 1.6

7.9 1.5

8 1.4

8 1.2

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

6 -1.8

6 -2.5

6 -1.2

6 -0.6

6 -0.8

6 -0.2

6 -0.5

5.9 -1.1

5.9 -1.3

5.9 -1.2

5.8 -1.4

5.8 -1.5

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

22.2 -0.3

22.2 -0.4

22.2 0.3

22.3 0.6

22.3 0.5

22.3 0.6

22.4 0.7

22.4 0.8

22.5 1

22.5 0.9

22.6 1.1

22.7 1.3

22.8 1.4

22.9 1.6

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

557.7 1

559.4 1.1

561.2 1.2

563.1 1.3

564.8 1.3

566.6 1.3

568.3 1.3

570 1.2

571.7 1.2

573.4 1.2

575.2 1.2

576.9 1.2

578.7 1.2

580.5 1.2

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

264.9 0.5

265.5 1.4

266.3 1.1

266.9 0.6

267.9 1.1

268.6 1.2

269 1

269.2 0.9

269.8 0.7

270.6 0.7

271.3 0.8

272.1 1.1

272.9 1.2

273.8 1.2

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

6.6

6.3

6.1

6.2

6.1

5.9

1262 1212 49

1706 1490 216

2311 1854 457

2872 2119 753

3421 2545 877

3933 3002 932

4370 3401 969

4702 3708 995

4859 3854 1005

4981 3985 996

4900 3928 972

4794 3834 960

4784 3819 966

4797 3826 971

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2014

P ensacola – F e r r y P ass – B r ent

PROFILES

O U T L O O K S U MM A R I E S

The Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent MSA is comprised of Escambia County and Santa Rosa County. Located in the northwest corner of Florida bordering Alabama, the region is home to the Pensacola Naval Air Station, Blue Angels, and the National Museum of Naval Aviation. This area has been referred to as the “Cradle of Naval Aviation.”

The Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to see low levels of growth in the economic indicators, relative to the twelve other areas studied. Personal income growth is expected to average 4.3 percent each year, the lowest of the twelve studied MSAs. The real per capita income level is expected to average $34,200. The average annual wage growth rate should be 3.0 percent, while the average annual wage level is expected to be $45,600. Population growth will be at an average rate of 0.5 percent, the second lowest of the studied MSAs. The Gross Metro Product is expected to average 14,776.03 million dollars.

QUICK FACTS:

• Metro population estimate of 453,218 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Escambia County population estimate of 299,114 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Santa Rosa County population estimate of 151,372 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • A civilian labor force of 218,009 in August 2014 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

• An unemployment rate of 6.5% as of August 2014, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 14,094 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Local Government – 13,857

• Federal Government – 7,162 • State Government – 5,253

• Sacred Heart Health System – 5,000 • Baptist Health Care – 3,163 • Lakeview – 2,000

• Ascend Performance Materials – 1,400 • Gulf Power Company – 1,365

• West Florida Regional Medical Center – 1,300 • University of West Florida – 1,231

• Navy Federal Credit Union – 1,200 Sources: Pensacola Chamber of Commerce, Agency for Workforece Innovation, Company web sites, Reference USA

Employment growth is expected to average 1.3 percent each year, and the unemployment rate will average 5.6 percent.

Construction and Mining will be the fastest growing sector in Pensacola, with 8.1 percent average annual growth. The Professional and Business Services sector follow with an average growth rate of 2.8 percent. The Other Services and the Federal Government sectors are expected to experience negative growth with average annual growth rates of -0.1 and -2.0 percent respectively.

M E T R O N E W S S U MM A R I E S Space Florida pursues large Pensacola development • Space Florida, the state’s aerospace economic development agency, said it’s seeking bids for an architect to design its proposed building in Pensacola Technology Park.

• The Melbourne-based agency filed a “Request for Qualifications” with Florida officials that detailed its building plans for a 58,400 squarefoot facility.

• Although the latest plans are for a building somewhat smaller than the 70,000 square feet estimated previously, Space Florida’s current plans envision five tenants that would rent space in various sizes from 5,000 to 20,000 square feet each. The building would be valued in the

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

P ensacola – F e r r y P ass – B r ent

range of $7 million to $9 million, according to the Greater Pensacola Chamber of Commerce.

• All that would create space for an additional 330 workers, which would put the park well on its way toward the original goal of employing 650. The park was built in 2010 with a $2 million grant from the U.S. Economic Development Commission. Source: Pensacola News Journal, July 17, 2014 Biotech Academy preps students for high-tech workforce

• Education in public schools is becoming increasingly career-oriented, and the Pensacola area is no exception. The Biotech Academy, which is the only one of its kind in Northwest Florida, is just one example of how students are preparing to enter the workforce. • The Escambia County School District offers 60 career academies to its middle and high school students, not including career and vocational training programs offered at George Stone Technical Center. • Students can now explore careers ranging from culinary arts to agriculture to computer programming through the academies, which school officials and educators say help create a talented workforce that will draw business and industry to the area.

Source: Pensacola News Journal, September 2, 2014 Hayward announces 200 new jobs at Port of Pensacola • A new manufacturing facility at the Port of Pensacola is expected to bring as many as 200 new jobs and $52 million in capital investment to the city, as announced by Pensacola Mayor Ashton Hayward.

• The project, a partnership between existing port tenant Offshore Inland and Houstonbased Deepflex, will make use of an existing warehouse and 3.5 acres of undeveloped land. The facilities, expected to be operational by the second half of 2015, would manufacture and 80

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2014

test flexible, deep sea piping for use in the global oil and gas industry.

• Buddy McCormick, vice president of offshore operations for Offshore Inland, said the facilities would require a wide range of workers — from engineers making six figures to laborers making $18 to $20 per hour. The average salary for the positions would be in the $60,000 range, McCormick said. Source: Pensacola News Journal, July 10, 2014 Health insurers raise 2015 Florida exchange rates

• Whether you’ll pay more or less insurance depends on a complex formula, which includes, where you live and how companies are competing in that market.

• Under the formula, many families in Escambia County can expect steep increases. A family of four with an income of $51,000 that received a roughly $500 subsidy each year paid $384 outof-pocket a month last year, but may pay $532 a month this year. • Consumers’ age also played a role in price because insurers struggled to attract a healthier young adult population, which balances out the risk pool. About 28 percent of the nearly 1 million Floridians who signed up for plans on healthcare.gov fell into the crucial 18 to 34-year-old demographic.

• Another key factor driving prices was consumers who were allowed to keep their insurance plans for another year, meaning they didn’t enter the risk pool. Insurance companies had counted on their business the first year. Source: Pensacola News Journal, August 4, 2014

P ensacola â&#x20AC;&#x201C; F e r r y P ass â&#x20AC;&#x201C; B r ent Pensacola - Ferry Pass - Brent MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation,Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

Florida & Pensacola Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

0.6

8.0%

1.2

1.4

Pensacola Real Gross Metro Product 16000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

13000.0

4.0% 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 FL Unemployment Rate Pensacola Unemployment Rate

12000.0

Pensacola Payroll Employment (Thousands)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Gross Metro Product

Pensacola Real Personal Income 8.0%

(percent change year ago)

6.0%

170.0

4.0%

165.0

2.0%

160.0

0.0%

155.0

-2.0%

150.0 145.0

14000.0

6.0%

175.0

0.8

15000.0

10.0%

2.0%

0.4

-4.0% 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Pensacola Payroll Employment

-6.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

P ensacola – F e r r y P ass – B r ent

Annual Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

October 2014

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

15.5 -1.0 6.8 8.7 14.3 -0.9 34.6 32.0 40.3 2.8

15.9 2.9 6.9 9.1 14.5 1.2 35.4 32.1 40.3 -0.1

16.7 5.0 7.1 9.6 14.8 2.5 36.7 32.5 41.3 2.5

17.3 3.5 7.3 10.0 15.1 1.6 37.4 32.6 42.1 1.9

17.7 2.1 7.5 10.2 15.2 1.0 37.8 32.6 42.6 1.2

18.3 3.5 7.7 10.6 15.5 1.9 38.9 33.0 43.7 2.5

19.0 3.6 8.0 10.9 15.9 2.2 40.2 33.6 44.7 2.4

19.9 4.8 8.4 11.5 16.4 3.4 41.9 34.6 46.2 3.4

20.9 5.4 8.8 12.2 17.0 3.8 43.9 35.7 47.9 3.6

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 154.7 156.7 158.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.1 1.3 1.1 Manufacturing 5.4 5.4 5.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -16.7 -0.6 2.7 Nonmanufacturing 149.3 151.3 153.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.6 1.4 1.1 Construction & Mining 10.6 10.6 9.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -16.2 -0.6 -6.7 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 30.1 29.4 29.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.8 -2.4 1.3 Wholesale Trade 5.4 5.1 4.9 Retail Trade 20.1 20.2 20.8 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 4.6 4.1 4.1 Information 3.0 3.1 2.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -7.2 1.7 -12.5 Financial Activities 8.8 8.7 8.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.8 -1.1 0.0 Prof & Business Services 18.4 19.7 21.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.6 6.7 7.1 Educ & Health Services 25.7 26.7 27.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.1 3.9 2.4 Leisure & Hospitality 17.6 18.1 19.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.8 2.8 6.5 Other Services 6.6 6.1 5.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -10.2 -6.8 -5.4 Federal Government 6.5 7.2 6.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.3 10.2 -4.7 State & Local Government 21.9 21.8 21.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.1 -0.3 -0.8

158.6 0.0 5.6 1.2 153.0 0.0 9.4 -4.0 30.0 0.9 4.9 21.1 4.0 2.4 -12.4 9.0 3.4 21.3 1.3 27.0 -1.4 19.7 2.5 5.7 -1.6 6.8 -0.9 21.6 -0.2

160.4 1.2 5.8 4.5 154.6 1.1 9.1 -3.8 30.5 1.4 4.8 21.5 4.1 2.3 -1.8 9.8 8.6 22.0 3.4 26.6 -1.3 20.7 5.0 5.6 -2.0 6.6 -2.5 21.3 -1.0

162.4 1.3 6.0 2.9 156.5 1.2 9.3 1.9 30.8 1.2 4.8 21.9 4.2 2.4 4.7 10.1 3.5 22.1 0.3 26.7 0.3 21.7 4.6 5.5 -2.3 6.5 -2.8 21.4 0.3

165.4 1.8 6.1 2.4 159.2 1.8 10.1 9.2 31.1 1.0 4.9 22.0 4.3 2.5 1.1 10.2 0.6 22.9 3.7 27.1 1.5 22.0 1.6 5.5 0.5 6.4 -1.0 21.4 0.0

167.4 1.3 6.1 -0.9 161.4 1.3 11.3 11.6 31.3 0.4 5.0 21.9 4.4 2.4 -1.2 10.1 -0.4 23.9 4.2 27.2 0.5 22.0 -0.1 5.5 0.4 6.3 -1.9 21.3 -0.5

169.1 1.0 6.0 -0.8 163.1 1.1 12.4 9.7 31.3 0.2 5.2 21.6 4.5 2.5 1.1 10.0 -1.7 24.6 2.9 27.4 0.5 22.0 -0.2 5.6 1.0 6.1 -2.2 21.3 0.1

462.6 1.4 211.7 -1.5 8.4 1473.4 1457.1 16

467.3 1.0 211.3 -0.2 7.0 1970.0 1850.9 119

469.9 0.6 213.6 1.1 6.1 1764.8 1541.6 223

471.5 0.3 217.2 1.7 5.6 2086.6 1752.6 334

473.7 0.5 219.6 1.1 5.4 2278.7 2012.6 266

476.8 0.7 221.3 0.8 5.2 2251.5 2020.1 231

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

447.2 0.4 207.2 -0.5 9.4 1035.7 954.9 81

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2014

450.8 0.8 211.4 2.0 10.0 1814.7 1369.0 446

456.2 1.2 215.0 1.7 9.5 1195.1 1194.1 1

P ensacola – F e r r y P ass – B r ent

Quarterly Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

October 2014

2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

18.5 3.8 7.8 10.7

18.5 3.8 7.9 10.7

18.8 4.5 7.9 10.8

18.9 3.5 8 10.9

19 2.8 8.1 10.9

19.2 3.5 8.1 11

19.5 4 8.2 11.2

19.7 4.6 8.3 11.4

20 5.2 8.4 11.5

20.3 5.6 8.5 11.7

20.6 5.6 8.6 12

20.9 5.7 8.7 12.1

21.1 5.4 8.8 12.2

21.3 4.8 8.9 12.4

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

15.6 2.1

15.6 2

15.8 2.8

15.8 2.1

15.9 1.6

16 2.4

16.2 2.7

16.3 3.2

16.5 3.8

16.6 4.1

16.8 4.1

17 4.1

17.1 3.8

17.2 3.2

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

39.3 33.2

39.4 33.2

39.8 33.5

40 33.6

40.3 33.6

40.7 33.9

41.2 34.2

41.7 34.5

42.1 34.7

42.7 35.1

43.3 35.4

43.8 35.7

44.1 35.8

44.5 36

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

43.9 3.2

44.1 3

44.4 3.1

44.5 2.2

44.8 1.9

45.2 2.3

45.6 2.9

46 3.3

46.4 3.6

46.8 3.6

47.3 3.6

47.7 3.6

48.1 3.6

48.5 3.5

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

163.1 1.3

164.1 2

164.6 2.6

165.2 1.9

165.7 1.6

166 1.2

166.6 1.2

167.1 1.1

167.8 1.3

168.3 1.4

168.7 1.3

169.1 1.2

169.3 0.9

169.5 0.7

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

6.1 4.2

6.1 4.9

6.1 5.6

6.2 3.7

6.1 0.7

6.1 -0.3

6.1 -0.7

6.1 -1.1

6.1 -1

6.1 -0.8

6.1 -0.7

6.1 -0.5

6 -0.8

6 -1.2

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

157 1.2

158 1.9

158.4 2.5

159.1 1.8

159.5 1.6

159.9 1.2

160.5 1.3

161 1.2

161.7 1.3

162.3 1.5

162.7 1.4

163 1.2

163.3 1

163.5 0.7

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

9.1 -0.3

9.7 5.3

9.8 5.8

9.9 10.4

10.2 12

10.5 8.6

10.8 9.8

11.1 11.3

11.5 12.4

11.8 12.8

12.1 12.9

12.3 11.2

12.5 8.7

12.6 6.3

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

30.9 1.7

31 0.8

31.1 1.4

31.1 1.1

31.2 0.8

31.3 0.5

31.3 0.6

31.3 0.4

31.3 0.2

31.3 0.1

31.4 0.2

31.4 0.4

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

4.8 22 4.2

4.8 22.1 4.3

4.9 22 4.3

4.9 21.9 4.3

5 21.9 4.3

5 21.9 4.4

5.1 21.9 4.4

5.1 21.8 4.4

5.1 21.7 4.5

5.2 21.6 4.5

5.2 21.5 4.5

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.4 2.6

2.5 9.4

2.4 2.1

2.4 0.8

2.5 1.3

2.5 0.2

2.4 0.3

2.4 -1.1

2.4 -2

2.4 -1.9

2.4 0.1

2.5 1.5

2.5 1.6

2.5 1.4

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

10.1 2.1

10.2 1.8

10.2 1.7

10.2 0.8

10.2 0.2

10.1 -0.4

10.1 -0.3

10.1 -0.4

10 -0.9

10 -1.4

9.9 -2

9.8 -2.5

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

22.3 0.5

22.4 0.9

22.5 3.6

22.8 3.5

23.1 3.5

23.3 4.1

23.5 4.5

23.8 4.1

24 4.1

24.3 4.2

24.4 3.8

24.6 3.4

24.6 2.6

24.7 1.8

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

26.8 0.9

27 1.6

27.1 2.4

27.2 2.4

27.2 1.2

27 0

27.1 0

27.2 -0.2

27.3 0.6

27.4 1.7

27.4 1.2

27.4 0.8

27.4 0.3

27.4 -0.1

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

21.8 4.4

21.9 5.3

21.9 4.2

22 0.7

22 0.9

22.1 0.8

22 0.3

22 -0.4

21.9 -1

21.9 -0.5

22 0.1

22.1 0.8

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

5.5 -1.9

5.5 -1.5

5.5 0.5

5.5 0.4

5.5 0.1

5.5 0.2

5.5 0.5

5.6 0.8

5.6 1.1

5.6 1

5.6 0.8

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

6.5 -1.8

6.4 -1.7

6.4 -0.1

6.4 -1.3

6.4 -1.5

6.4 -1.1

6.3 -1.4

6.3 -2

6.2 -2.2

6.2 -2.1

6.1 -2.2

6.1 -2.3

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

21.5 0.2

21.5 1.2

21.5 1.5

21.4 -0.3

21.4 -0.6

21.4 -0.7

21.3 -0.6

21.3 -0.4

21.3 -0.2

21.3 0

21.3 0.1

21.4 0.4

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

470.2 0.5

470.5 0.4

470.9 0.3

471.2 0.3

471.6 0.3

472.1 0.3

472.7 0.4

473.4 0.4

474.1 0.5

474.8 0.6

475.7 0.6

476.4 0.6

477.2 0.7

478 0.7

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

214 1.2

214.9 2.2

215.9 2

216.7 1.3

217.7 1.7

218.5 1.7

219 1.4

219.2 1.2

219.7 0.9

220.3 0.8

220.7 0.8

221.1 0.9

221.5 0.8

221.9 0.7

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

6.1

5.8

5.6

5.5

5.4

5.3

5.2

1584 1450 135

1727 1532 195

1913 1637 276

2057 1688 369

2160 1796 364

2216 1890 326

2242 1950 292

2224 1960 264

2299 2037 262

2350 2103 247

2297 2070 227

2246 2015 231

2232 2000 232

2231 1996 235

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

T allahassee

PROFILES

O U T L O O K S U MM A R I E S

The Tallahassee MSA is comprised of Gadsden, Jefferson, Leon, and Wakulla Counties. It is located between Pensacola and Jacksonville. Tallahassee is the capital city of Florida and houses Florida State University and Florida A&M University.

The Tallahassee Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) expected to show low growth in the economic indicators relative to other metro areas forecasted in the state. The area should see personal income growth averaging 4.8 percent each year. Real per capita income levels should average $34,600. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.1 percent. The average annual wage level will be $44,400. Population growth will average 1.1 percent, and the Gross Metro Product will average at a level of 13,927.35 million dollars.

QUICK FACTS:

• Metro population estimate of 367,315 as of the 2010 census (U.S. Census Bureau).

• Gadsden County population estimate of 46,151 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Jefferson County population estimate of 14,658 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Leon County population estimate of 277,971 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• Wakulla County population estimate of 30,978 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 193,559 in August 2014 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

• An unemployment rate of of 6.2 % as of August 2014, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 11,916 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: • • • • • • • • •

State of Florida – 24,599 Florida State University – 6,119 Leon County Schools – 4,550 Tallahassee Memorial HealthCare, Inc. – 3,190 City of Tallahassee – 2,736 Publix Supermarket – 2,102 Florida A&M University – 1,923 Leon County – 1,919 Walmart Stores Inc. – 1,300

• Tallahassee Community College – 1,144

Source: Economic Development Council of Tallahassee, 2012

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2014

Employment growth is expected to average 1.7 percent each year, the fourth lowest of the studied areas. However, the unemployment rate will average 4.9 percent, the second lowest of the twelve MSAs.

Construction and Mining will be the fastest growing sector in Tallahassee, averaging 8.6 percent annually. The Professional and Business Services sector follows with an average growth rate of 3.6 percent. The Federal Government and Manufacturing sectors are expected to decline with average annual growth rates of -1.3 and -0.8 percent, respectively.

M E T R O N E W S S U MM A R I E S Long-awaited institute will benefit area’s nonprofits • The Institute for Nonprofit Innovation and Excellence is a management support organization that provides training and professional development for nonprofits.

• It is expected that the institute will increase the effectiveness and efficiencies of local nonprofits.

• One of its goals is to increase the awareness and understanding of the importance of nonprofits to the communities. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, July 8, 2014 Sale of Tallahassee Mall’s land marks end of an era • The land underlying the Tallahassee Mall has been sold to the entity entitled Tallahassee Retail Venture LLC.

T allahassee

• The land had been family-owned since the 1920’s.

• The new owners are planning a partial demolition followed by the rebuilding of 220,000 square feet of the mall with the hopes of revitalizing the struggling property. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, July 16, 2014 Retailer H&M makes lively debut at Governor’s Square • At the store’s opening in August, there were over 700 people in line waiting to get in.

• The store is leasing 21,000 square feet at Governor’s Square and will include sections for women, men accessories, maternity, sports apparel, and plus-size clothing.

Hancock Bank plans expanded financial center downtown

• Hancock Bank is planning the opening of a financial center in downtown Tallahassee for October.

• They are currently renovating the office so that it can serve as the regional headquarters for the company.

• The market president of the bank, Emory Mayfield Jr., asserts that the look and experience offered by the bank when it opens will be unlike that of traditional banks. The company wants to increase the emphasis on direct service to their clients. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, September 2, 2014

• The store is expected to increase business for the shopping center. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, August 7, 2014 Goodwill plans a move to larger facilities in Quincy • Goodwill Industries-Big Bend Inc. will open a new retail store and training center in the remodeled Quincy shopping center by the end of the year. • The retail store will be 10,000 square feet in size, which is significantly larger than their current location.

• The training center will provide employment services to assist individuals who need help getting a job. The center will also provide a program for ex-offenders seeking employment. • The retail store and the training center will contribute to the economic development of the community. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, August 21, 2014

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

T allahassee Tallahassee MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

Florida & Tallahassee Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

1.5

15000.0

8.0%

13500.0

6.0%

13000.0 12000.0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 FL Unemployment Rate Tallahassee Unemployment Rate

11500.0

Tallahassee Payroll Employment (Thousands)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Gross Metro Product

Tallahassee Real Personal Income 8.0%

(percent change year ago)

6.0%

175.0

4.0% 2.0%

170.0

0.0% -2.0%

165.0

(Millions 2000 $)

12500.0

4.0%

160.0

14500.0 14000.0

180.0

2.5

Tallahassee Real Gross Metro Product

10.0%

2.0%

-4.0% 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Tallahassee Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2014

-6.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Personal Income

T allahassee

Annual Outlook for Tallahassee, FL

October 2014

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

12.2 -2.4 6.8 5.5 11.3 -2.4 33.5 30.9 39.3 0.2

12.9 5.6 6.8 6.2 11.7 3.9 35.1 31.9 39.8 1.3

13.7 5.7 6.8 6.9 12.1 3.3 36.8 32.6 40.2 1.0

14.0 2.6 6.8 7.2 12.2 0.7 37.4 32.6 41.0 2.0

14.3 1.7 7.0 7.3 12.3 0.6 38.3 32.9 41.4 1.0

14.8 3.7 7.2 7.6 12.5 2.1 39.6 33.6 42.3 2.3

15.3 3.6 7.5 7.8 12.8 2.3 40.6 34.0 43.4 2.5

16.2 5.7 7.9 8.3 13.4 4.3 42.3 34.9 45.0 3.7

17.2 6.3 8.4 8.8 14.0 4.8 44.3 36.0 46.7 3.9

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 171.1 169.2 168.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.8 -1.1 -0.7 Manufacturing 3.8 3.7 3.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -9.5 -4.1 -11.2 Nonmanufacturing 167.2 165.5 164.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.6 -1.0 -0.5 Construction & Mining 7.0 6.4 6.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -18.0 -9.1 -4.5 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 22.4 22.2 22.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.7 -0.9 0.7 Wholesale Trade 3.4 3.3 3.3 Retail Trade 17.4 17.3 17.5 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 1.6 1.6 1.6 Information 3.4 3.1 3.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.0 -9.1 3.5 Financial Activities 7.5 7.4 7.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.8 -1.1 0.9 Prof & Business Services 18.4 18.2 18.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.6 -1.6 1.4 Educ & Health Services 19.5 19.6 19.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 0.4 1.4 Leisure & Hospitality 16.4 16.2 16.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.7 -1.3 0.0 Other Services 9.7 9.5 8.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.3 -2.2 -5.7 Federal Government 2.0 2.1 1.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 5.1 -9.1 State & Local Government 60.9 60.9 60.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.4 0.0 -1.1

166.3 -1.0 3.1 -3.9 163.1 -1.0 5.9 -4.0 22.2 -0.6 3.2 17.4 1.6 3.3 3.7 7.2 -4.1 18.2 -1.1 19.7 -0.6 16.8 3.5 9.2 3.1 1.9 -0.4 58.8 -2.5

167.4 0.7 3.1 -2.5 164.3 0.7 6.2 5.2 22.7 2.3 3.3 17.7 1.7 3.4 1.9 7.3 2.3 18.5 1.5 19.6 -0.5 17.3 3.0 8.8 -3.9 2.0 3.2 58.5 -0.4

170.1 1.6 2.9 -4.5 167.1 1.7 6.3 2.2 23.6 3.8 3.5 18.2 1.9 3.5 5.2 7.4 0.5 18.8 1.9 19.8 0.9 18.3 5.9 8.9 1.1 1.9 -3.4 58.6 0.1

172.8 1.6 3.0 1.2 169.9 1.6 6.9 9.6 23.9 1.5 3.6 18.4 2.0 3.6 2.8 7.4 0.8 19.5 3.7 20.2 1.9 18.6 1.8 9.1 1.3 1.9 -0.3 58.7 0.2

175.8 1.7 3.0 0.2 172.8 1.8 7.8 12.4 24.2 1.1 3.7 18.5 2.0 3.6 -1.2 7.4 0.3 20.5 5.0 20.5 1.5 18.7 0.6 9.2 1.8 1.9 -0.6 59.0 0.6

178.8 1.7 3.0 0.1 175.8 1.7 8.6 10.1 24.4 0.8 3.8 18.4 2.1 3.7 1.9 7.4 -1.0 21.3 3.7 20.8 1.5 18.9 0.7 9.4 2.1 1.9 -1.0 59.7 1.1

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

374.7 0.8 191.0 0.3 7.4 992.6 494.4 498

373.1 -0.4 190.1 -0.5 6.2 1221.4 606.6 615

373.6 0.1 194.1 2.1 5.4 1286.7 682.6 604

377.5 1.1 199.2 2.6 4.9 1985.2 1048.4 937

383.3 1.5 203.0 1.9 4.6 2280.7 1494.3 786

389.1 1.5 205.7 1.4 4.5 2237.1 1491.1 746

365.2 1.0 192.0 0.5 7.3 827.6 613.2 214

368.6 0.9 192.4 0.2 8.3 659.8 603.0 57

371.7 0.8 190.5 -1.0 8.3 782.6 563.3 219

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

T allahassee

Quarterly Outlook for Tallahassee, FL

October 2014

2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

14.9 4.1 7.3 7.6

15 3.5 7.4 7.6

15.1 4.3 7.4 7.7

15.2 3.3 7.5 7.8

15.4 3 7.6 7.8

15.6 3.9 7.7 7.9

15.8 4.6 7.8 8.1

16.1 5.5 7.9 8.2

16.3 6.1 8 8.3

16.6 6.6 8.1 8.5

16.9 6.6 8.2 8.7

17.1 6.6 8.3 8.8

17.4 6.4 8.4 8.9

17.6 5.8 8.6 9

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

12.6 2.4

12.6 1.7

12.7 2.6

12.8 1.9

12.8 1.7

13 2.9

13.1 3.4

13.3 4

13.4 4.7

13.6 5

13.8 5.1

14 5.1

14.1 4.8

14.2 4.2

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

39.9 33.8

40 33.7

40.3 33.9

40.5 33.9

40.6 33.9

41 34.2

41.6 34.5

42 34.7

42.5 35

43 35.3

43.6 35.7

44.1 35.9

44.5 36.1

44.9 36.3

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

42.5 3

42.8 2.7

43 2.7

43.2 2.3

43.5 2.3

43.9 2.7

44.3 3.1

44.7 3.6

45.2 3.9

45.6 3.9

46 3.9

46.5 3.9

46.9 3.9

47.4 3.9

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

170.6 1.8

171.3 1.5

171.8 2.1

172.5 1.5

173.2 1.5

173.8 1.4

174.6 1.6

175.4 1.6

176.2 1.8

177.1 1.9

177.8 1.9

178.5 1.8

179.2 1.7

179.8 1.5

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

2.9 -3.6

2.9 -1

3 0.9

3 1.6

3 1.5

3 0.7

3 0.4

3 0

3 0.1

3 0.2

3 0.3

3 0.1

3 -0.1

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

167.7 1.9

168.4 1.5

168.8 2.1

169.5 1.5

170.2 1.5

170.8 1.5

171.6 1.7

172.4 1.7

173.3 1.8

174.1 1.9

174.9 1.9

175.6 1.8

176.2 1.7

176.8 1.6

6.3 1

6.6 5.7

6.7 9

6.8 9.1

7 10.9

7.2 9.5

7.4 10.7

7.6 12.2

7.9 13.1

8.2 13.3

8.4 13.2

8.5 11.5

8.6 9.1

8.7 6.8

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

23.7 3.7

23.7 2.2

23.8 2.3

23.9 1.3

23.9 1.1

24 1.3

24.1 1.1

24.2 1.3

24.2 1.1

24.2 0.9

24.3 0.7

24.4 0.8

24.5 1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.5 18.3 1.9

3.5 18.4 1.9

3.6 18.4 2

3.7 18.5 2

3.7 18.4 2.1

3.8 18.4 2.1

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

3.6 6.6

3.7 7.8

3.6 7.1

3.6 1.8

3.7 2.2

3.7 0.6

3.6 0.4

3.6 -1.4

3.6 -2.2

3.6 -1.8

3.6 0.6

3.7 2.2

3.7 2.4

3.7 2.2

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.4 0.7

7.4 1.1

7.4 1.6

7.4 1

7.4 0.5

7.4 0.2

7.5 0.4

7.5 0.3

7.4 0.2

7.4 -0.2

7.4 -0.8

7.4 -1.3

7.3 -1.9

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

19 2.9

19 2.2

19.2 2.9

19.4 3.6

19.7 3.7

19.9 4.5

20.1 5.1

20.4 4.9

20.6 4.9

20.9 5

21.1 4.7

21.2 4.3

21.3 3.4

21.4 2.5

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

19.9 0.7

20 1.7

20.1 2.4

20.3 2.7

20.2 1.8

20.2 0.8

20.3 0.9

20.4 0.9

20.6 1.6

20.7 2.7

20.7 2.1

20.8 1.7

20.8 1.3

20.9 0.8

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

18.4 6.3

18.4 3.2

18.5 3.1

18.6 1.1

18.7 1.5

18.8 1.6

18.7 0.9

18.7 0.3

18.7 -0.4

18.8 0.3

18.9 1.1

19 1.9

9 1.7

9 1.4

9 1

9.1 1.3

9.1 1.6

9.1 1.4

9.2 1.7

9.2 1.9

9.3 2.3

9.4 2.4

9.4 2.3

9.4 2.1

9.5 1.8

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.9 -4.7

1.9 -4.9

1.9 -1

1.9 -0.2

1.9 -0.4

1.9 0.4

1.9 0

1.9 -0.7

1.9 -0.9

1.9 -1

1.8 -1.2

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

58.7 0.2

58.7 -0.1

58.7 0.7

58.6 -0.1

58.7 0.1

58.9 0.3

58.9 0.5

59.1 0.7

59.2 0.8

59.4 0.9

59.6 1.1

59.7 1.1

60 1.3

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

373.8 0.2

374.6 0.5

375.6 0.8

376.7 1

378.1 1.2

379.6 1.3

381.1 1.5

382.6 1.6

384.1 1.6

385.6 1.6

387.1 1.6

388.4 1.5

389.8 1.5

391.2 1.5

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

194.5 2.5

195.8 3.2

197.3 2.6

198.6 2.4

199.9 2.8

201 2.6

201.9 2.3

202.5 2

203.3 1.7

204.2 1.6

204.8 1.5

205.4 1.4

206 1.3

206.5 1.2

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.5

5.1

4.9

4.8

4.7

4.6

4.5

1125 629 496

1402 732 670

1695 863 832

1954 959 995

2102 1109 993

2189 1262 927

2235 1391 844

2246 1483 764

2303 1531 771

2339 1572 767

2289 1538 751

2230 1490 740

2217 1473 744

2213 1464 749

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2014

T a m pa – S t . P ete r sbu r g – C lea r w ate r

PROFILES

O U T L O O K S U MM A R I E S

The Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater MSA is comprised of Hernando, Hillsborough, Pasco, and Pinellas counties. Located centrally on the west coast of Florida, this region includes Tarpon Springs, Sponge Docks, Ybor City, Bush Gardens, the University of South Florida and the University of Tampa. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Tampa Bay Rays call this region home.

The Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show moderate growth in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to be 4.9 percent on average each year, and the real per capita income level will average $37,500. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.8 percent, the lowest of the studied MSAs. The average annual wage level will be $51,800. Population growth will average 1.2 percent, and Tampa is forecasted to have the second highest average Gross Metro Product in the studied areas, averaging a level of 122,562.57 million dollars.

QUICK FACTS:

• MSA population estimate of 2,824,724 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Hernando County population estimate of 173,094 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Hillsborough County population estimate of 1,267,775 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Pasco County population estimate of 466,475 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Pinellas County population estimate of 917,398 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 1,366,989 in August 2014 (Florida Research and Economic Database). • Unemployment rate of 6.8% as of August 2014, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 92,896 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database).

TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• • • • • • • • • •

Hillsborough County School board – 29,603 MacDill Air Force Base – 15,485 Pinellas County School District – 13,905 Hillsborough County Government – 9,328 Pasco County School District – 9,289 Verizon Communications, Inc. – 9,065 University of South Florida – 8,353 Tampa International Airport – 8,060 Tampa General Hospital – 6,900 Publix Food Centers – 5,823

Sources: Pasco County School District, Pinellas County School District, 2011 Comprehensive Annual Financial Report: Tampa Port Authority

Employment growth is expected to average 2.1 percent annually. The unemployment rate is expected to average a moderate 6.0 percent.

The fastest growing sector in the Tampa area will be the Construction and Mining sector with an average annual growth rate of 7.8 percent. This is followed by the Professional and Business Service sector and the Education and Health Service sector with average annual growth rates of 3.9 percent and 2.2 percent, respectively. Growth in the Federal Government sector and the Information sector will decline at averages of -0.4 and -0.1 percent, respectively.

M E T R O N E W S S U MM A R I E S Plans for Clearwater Beach hotels keep popping up • The plans of two more beach hotels have been approved by the Clearwater City Council.

• These plans include that of a 10-story, 155-room West Indie-styled hotel with a rooftop bar, and a 10-story, 144-room hotel to replace the vacant lot on Coronado Drive.

• There is currently only one hotel under construction in Clearwater Beach, which is the Opal Sands Resort. This is a 15-story, 230-room hotel planned to open in fall of 2015. • Multiple other plans for beach hotels have been approved by the city but haven’t begun construction. Source: Tampa Bay Times, July 9, 2014 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

T a m pa – S t . P ete r sbu r g – C lea r w ate r

Health Insurance Innovations closes on acquisition • Tampa-based Health Insurance Innovations recently acquired HealthPocket, a company that organizes health care data. • HealthPocket allows consumers to review major medical, Medicare, employer-sponsored, and other health plans sorted by characteristics such as price, doctor, or hospital provider.

• Health Insurance Innovations, a seller of shortterm and limited medical insurance plans, hopes to strengthen its online presence through the acquisition of HealthPocket. • Health Insurance Innovations spent $32 million to buy the company. Source: Tampa Bay Times, July 15, 2014 Oldsmar manufacturer Hydro-Dyne Engineering buys larger facility in Pinellas Park • Hydro-Dyne Engineering is a maker of industrial water equipment.

• The company recently purchased a 107,500 square-foot facility in Pinellas Park.

• This new facility is five times larger than its current plant, and the expansion will result in additional hires in engineering, production, and sales. Source: Tampa Bay Times, July 14, 2014 Two apartment towers in the works on Harbour Island • Construction is planned to start by the end of 2014 for two 21-story apartment towers, which are being developed by two different groups. • The Related Group is heading the plans for the west side of the plaza, which would include studio, one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments. • The plans for the East side are headed by the collaboration of Forge Capital Partners, the Intown Group, and the Framework Group. Most of these units will be two-bedroom.

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2014

• Both sides plan to start construction in late 2014 and open in early 2016 Source: Tampa Bay Times, July 25, 2014 Tijuana Flats opening two locations in Tampa

• The first restaurant will be open starting October 2014 and will be located on W Platt St. • The second restaurant will open early 2015 on S Dale Mabry Highway. • Tijuana Flats currently has 19 stores in the Tampa Bay area and is continuing to expand.

Source: Tampa Bay Times, August 20, 2014 One Call Care laying off 99 in Tampa

• One Call Care is a company that specializes in helping contain workers compensation cost. • The firm was bought last October by Apax Partners.

• The company now plans to close its Tampa facility, which will entail lay-offs of 99 employees. Source: Tampa Bay Times, September 2, 2014

T a m pa â&#x20AC;&#x201C; S t . P ete r sbu r g â&#x20AC;&#x201C; C lea r w ate r Tampa - St. Petersburg - Clearwater Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

Florida & Tampa Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

0.6

1.2

1.4

140000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

120000.0 110000.0 100000.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 FL Unemployment Rate Tampa Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

1250.0 1200.0 1150.0 1100.0 1050.0

Tampa Real Gross Metro Product

90000.0

Tampa Payroll Employment 1300.0

0.8

130000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

0.4

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Tampa Payroll Employment

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Gross Metro Product

Tampa Real Personal Income 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

(percent change year ago)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

T a m pa – S t . P ete r sbu r g – C lea r w ate r

Annual Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

October 2014

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

100.3 -3.8 51.1 49.2 92.6 -3.8 36.3 33.4 45.2 1.7

106.7 6.3 51.3 55.4 96.8 4.6 38.2 34.6 45.8 1.3

111.3 4.3 53.0 58.3 98.7 1.9 39.4 34.9 46.6 1.7

116.2 4.3 55.6 60.5 101.1 2.5 40.8 35.5 47.9 2.7

119.5 2.9 57.9 61.7 102.9 1.7 41.6 35.8 48.6 1.6

124.5 4.1 60.6 63.9 105.5 2.6 43.0 36.4 49.8 2.4

129.2 3.8 63.1 66.1 108.1 2.4 44.1 36.9 50.8 2.1

136.3 5.5 66.4 69.8 112.5 4.1 45.9 37.9 52.4 3.2

144.7 6.2 70.1 74.6 117.7 4.6 48.0 39.0 54.3 3.5

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 1117.2 1106.1 1123.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.0 -1.0 1.6 Manufacturing 61.9 58.2 58.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -13.4 -6.0 1.1 Nonmanufacturing 1055.3 1047.9 1065.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.5 -0.7 1.6 Construction & Mining 60.2 52.9 52.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -21.2 -12.1 -0.3 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 210.5 209.4 213.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -7.4 -0.5 1.9 Wholesale Trade 47.7 45.9 46.3 Retail Trade 137.1 138.3 141.4 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 25.7 25.1 25.8 Information 27.5 25.7 25.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -9.0 -6.6 0.6 Financial Activities 93.2 89.4 91.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.5 -4.1 2.5 Prof & Business Services 169.9 174.2 182.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -7.1 2.5 4.8 Educ & Health Services 174.4 178.0 181.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.8 2.1 1.7 Leisure & Hospitality 122.1 121.4 123.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.8 -0.5 1.3 Other Services 43.1 42.0 41.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -8.0 -2.7 -1.6 Federal Government 22.7 24.0 22.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.7 5.6 -4.6 State & Local Government 131.7 131.0 130.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.5 -0.6 -0.4

1148.6 2.2 59.4 1.1 1089.2 2.3 54.2 2.8 218.9 2.6 48.4 143.9 26.6 25.7 -0.6 95.5 4.3 190.9 4.5 182.3 0.7 128.3 4.3 41.1 -0.6 22.6 -1.3 129.7 -0.6

1177.1 2.5 60.0 1.0 1117.1 2.6 57.1 5.4 222.8 1.8 49.1 146.5 27.3 26.2 2.0 99.6 4.3 199.6 4.5 185.1 1.6 132.5 3.2 42.0 2.3 22.7 0.5 129.4 -0.2

1204.2 2.3 62.2 3.7 1141.9 2.2 58.7 2.8 229.6 3.0 49.9 151.9 27.9 26.3 0.1 101.9 2.3 207.5 4.0 189.5 2.4 134.7 1.7 42.0 0.0 22.8 0.2 129.1 -0.2

1228.4 2.0 62.6 0.5 1165.8 2.1 63.4 7.9 233.8 1.9 51.2 153.9 29.3 26.6 1.3 103.0 1.0 211.9 2.1 194.8 2.8 137.9 2.4 42.3 0.8 22.7 -0.2 129.4 0.3

1254.2 2.1 62.3 -0.4 1191.9 2.2 70.4 11.1 236.8 1.3 53.2 153.9 30.4 25.8 -3.2 103.3 0.3 221.9 4.7 198.9 2.1 139.4 1.1 42.8 1.1 22.6 -0.6 130.1 0.5

1279.4 2.0 62.0 -0.4 1217.4 2.1 77.0 9.3 239.3 1.1 55.0 153.5 31.4 26.1 1.2 102.2 -1.1 232.2 4.6 202.1 1.6 141.2 1.3 43.5 1.6 22.4 -0.9 131.5 1.1

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

2848.8 0.7 1321.4 1.0 9.0 9014.9 5893.1 3122

2872.9 0.8 1333.0 0.9 7.3 11583.3 7242.5 4341

2896.8 0.8 1360.1 2.0 6.3 12142.4 7228.1 4914

2930.2 1.2 1394.1 2.5 6.0 17289.6 10626.1 6664

2970.4 1.4 1419.3 1.8 5.9 20355.9 14420.4 5935

3015.1 1.5 1441.2 1.5 5.7 20658.7 15010.6 5648

2767.9 0.7 1295.1 -0.9 10.8 5897.9 3975.8 1922

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2014

2795.5 1.0 1292.9 -0.2 11.8 6344.2 4510.7 1834

2828.5 1.2 1307.9 1.2 10.7 6946.5 4491.6 2455

T a m pa – S t . P ete r sbu r g – C lea r w ate r

Quarterly Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

October 2014

2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

125.7 4.4 61 64.7

126.2 4 61.7 64.6

127.7 4.6 62.2 65.5

128.5 3.8 62.7 65.8

129.6 3.1 63.3 66.3

130.9 3.7 64.1 66.8

133.3 4.4 65 68.3

135.2 5.2 65.9 69.3

137.1 5.8 66.9 70.3

139.5 6.6 67.9 71.6

141.9 6.5 68.8 73.1

144 6.5 69.7 74.3

145.7 6.3 70.5 75.2

147.3 5.6 71.4 76

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

106.2 2.7

106.3 2.2

107.3 2.9

107.8 2.4

108.2 1.9

109.1 2.6

110.6 3.1

111.8 3.7

113 4.4

114.5 5

116.1 5

117.3 4.9

118.3 4.6

119.1 4.1

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

43.3 36.6

43.4 36.6

43.8 36.8

43.9 36.8

44.2 36.9

44.5 37

45.1 37.4

45.6 37.7

46.1 38

46.7 38.3

47.3 38.7

47.8 39

48.2 39.1

48.6 39.3

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

50 2.9

50.2 2.5

50.4 2.5

50.6 1.7

50.9 1.8

51.3 2.2

51.8 2.6

52.2 3.1

52.6 3.5

53.1 3.5

53.6 3.5

54 3.5

54.5 3.5

55 3.5

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

1208.6 2.2

1215.3 2.3

1220 2.3

1226.4 2.2

1231.3 1.9

1235.9 1.7

1242.8 1.9

1250.2 1.9

1257.9 2.2

1266 2.4

1272.3 2.4

1277.7 2.2

1281.8 1.9

1285.8 1.6

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

61.9 3.5

62.4 2

62.5 -0.5

62.7 1.4

62.6 1.1

62.5 0.1

62.5 -0.1

62.3 -0.6

62.2 -0.6

62.2 -0.5

62.2 -0.4

62.1 -0.3

62 -0.3

61.9 -0.5

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

1146.7 2.2

1152.9 2.4

1157.5 2.4

1163.7 2.2

1168.7 1.9

1173.4 1.8

1180.3 2

1187.9 2.1

1195.6 2.3

1203.8 2.6

1210.2 2.5

1215.6 2.3

1219.8 2

1223.9 1.7

58.9 2.8

60.1 1.8

61.2 5.2

62.4 8

64 8.6

65.8 9.6

67.6 10.4

69.4 11.2

71.3 11.4

73.4 11.5

75.1 11.2

76.5 10.3

77.7 9

78.5 7

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

230.6 3.2

231.5 2.8

232.8 2.5

233.3 1.9

234.2 1.6

235.1 1.5

235.7 1.2

236.5 1.4

237.2 1.3

237.7 1.1

238.1 1

238.8 1

239.7 1.1

240.7 1.2

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

49.9 153 28.1

50.2 153.4 28.5

50.6 154.1 28.9

51 153.7 29.2

51.4 153.9 29.4

51.9 153.7 29.7

52.3 153.7 29.9

52.9 153.9 30.3

53.4 154.1 30.6

53.9 154 30.8

54.4 153.5 31.1

54.7 153.4 31.3

55.2 153.5 31.5

55.7 153.5 31.7

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

26.3 -0.1

26.9 3

26.4 1.8

26.6 2.2

26.8 2

26.7 -0.7

26.1 -1.3

25.7 -3.6

25.7 -4.3

25.8 -3.5

25.9 -0.6

26 1.4

26.2 1.9

26.3 1.9

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

102.3 2.2

102.8 2.3

103.2 2.5

103 1.2

102.9 0.5

102.8 0

103.1 -0.1

103.4 0.4

103.4 0.5

103.4 0.6

103.1 0

102.6 -0.8

101.9 -1.5

101.2 -2.1

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

209.4 3.9

209.9 3.8

210.1 3

211.3 2.2

212.4 1.4

213.7 1.8

216.7 3.1

220 4.1

223.5 5.3

227.3 6.4

230.3 6.3

232.1 5.5

232.8 4.1

233.4 2.7

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

190.1 2.5

191.7 2.4

193.2 2.9

195.3 3.6

195.6 2.9

195.3 1.9

196.7 1.8

198.4 1.6

199.5 2

201.1 3

201.4 2.4

201.9 1.8

202.3 1.4

202.9 0.9

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

135.2 0.8

136 3

136.6 3.1

137.4 1.9

138.3 2.3

139.1 2.3

139.6 2.2

139.4 1.4

139.3 0.8

139.2 0

139.7 0.1

140.6 0.8

141.7 1.7

142.7 2.5

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

42 -0.7

42 -0.2

42.2 0.8

42.3 0.5

42.4 0.8

42.4 0.9

42.6 0.8

42.7 0.9

42.9 1.1

43 1.4

43.2 1.5

43.4 1.6

43.5 1.6

43.7 1.5

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

22.8 0.6

22.6 -1

22.7 -0.8

22.8 0

22.7 -0.2

22.7 0.4

22.7 0

22.6 -0.7

22.6 -0.8

22.5 -0.8

22.5 -0.9

22.4 -0.8

22.3 -1

22.3 -1.1

129.1 0

129.2 0

129.2 0.1

129.3 0.4

129.5 0.3

129.6 0.4

129.7 0.4

129.9 0.4

130.2 0.6

130.4 0.6

130.8 0.8

131.2 1

131.7 1.1

132.2 1.4

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2900.1 0.8

2908 0.9

2916.6 1

2925.4 1.1

2934.6 1.2

2944.2 1.2

2954.5 1.3

2964.7 1.3

2975.7 1.4

2986.9 1.5

2997.7 1.5

3009.2 1.5

3020.9 1.5

3032.7 1.5

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1364.1 2.3

1372.9 3.1

1382 2.8

1389.9 2.3

1398.6 2.5

1405.9 2.4

1411.5 2.1

1416 1.9

1421.7 1.7

1428.1 1.6

1433.6 1.6

1438.9 1.6

1443.8 1.6

1448.7 1.4

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

6.3

6.1

5.9

6.1

5.9

5.8

5.7

11773 7080 4693

13360 7974 5386

15155 9107 6048

16964 9879 7084

18082 11127 6955

18958 12391 6566

19681 13444 6236

20142 14169 5973

20593 14758 5835

21008 15311 5698

20827 15212 5614

20513 14916 5597

20574 14915 5660

20720 14999 5721

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

I n d ust r y L ocation Q uotient

E X P L A N AT I O N A N D I N T E R P R E TAT I O N This technique compares the local economy to a reference economy; in this case, the local economy is the chosen MSA, and the reference economy is the state of Florida. An Industry Location Quotient (LQ) is calculated to determine if the local economy has a greater share of each industryâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s employment than the reference economy. The LQ helps to identify specializations that exist in the local economy. There are only three possible outcomes: 1. An LQ greater than one 2. An LQ equal to one and 3. An LQ less than one. An LQ that is greater than one means that the share of local employment in that particular industry is greater than the reference economy employment share in that same industry. This implies that some of the goods or services produced by that industry are exported for consumption elsewhere. An LQ of one means that local demand is met by the local industry. No goods/services are imported or exported from the local area in that industry. The share of local employment in that industry is equal to the share for that industry in the reference economy. An LQ less than one implies that the industry is not meeting local demand for that good or service, and in order to meet demand, that area must import that good or service. This also means that the share of local employment in that industry is less than the share of employment in that industry for the reference economy.

C A L C U L AT I O N An industry location quotient is a calculated ratio of two ratios. LQ = ((Local employment in industry A in year T / Total local employment in year T) / (Reference economy employment in industry A in year T) / (Total reference employment in year T)) For example: Orlando MSA employment for Information is 27,400 Total Orlando MSA nonagricultural employment is 1,104,100 Florida employment for Information is 169,800 Total Florida nonagricultural employment is 8,247,000 LQ = ((27,400 / 1,104,100) / (169,800 / 8,247,000)) = 1.2039 Source: Florida Regional Economic Database, Current Employment Statistics, December 2006

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2014

SEAN M. SNAITH, PH.D.

We would like to recognize the following organizations for their support of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness:

UNIVERSITY OF CENTRAL FLORIDA College of Business Administration Institute for Economic Competitiveness P. O . B o x 1 6 1 4 0 0 , O r l a n d o , F l o r i d a 3 2 8 1 6 P H 4 0 7. 8 2 3 . 1 4 5 3 FA X 4 0 7. 8 2 3 . 1 4 5 4 w w w. i e c . u c f . e d u