FLORIDA SUMMARY
Do any of these storms give us an insight into what Irma may have done to Florida’s economy? In some ways they all do, but as far as being directly comparable to the impact of Irma, there are just a few that bear mentioning.
cumulative impact on the state’s economy was more discernable than any single hurricane prior to Irma. In quarterly data, it difficult to separate the effects of the hurricanes from other factors impacting the economy, but if we examine monthly payroll employment data, then the consequences of the hurricanes become more evident. Figure 1 below plots the path of overall payroll employment as well as employment in three sectors most impacted by hurricanes.
Andrew was the most powerful hurricane to have hit the state and its path took it across the southernmost portion of the peninsula. While Miami is the largest metro area in the state and because such a small fraction of the state was impacted by Andrew, it is probably not the best comparison for what the impacts of Irma might be.
The employment data in this chart normalizes employment for all four sectors to one for July 2004, the month prior to the first hurricane hitting the state. Thus subsequent months display the level of employment relative to what it was before the impact of the hurricanes.
Probably the closest comparable event to Irma over this time period occurred in 2004. That year, a trio of hurricanes—Charley, Frances, and Jeanne—impacted Florida in a period of about six weeks and the
Figure 1. The Payroll Employment Impact of the 2004 Hurricanes.
Hurricanes Charley/Frances/Jeanne Employment Levels Normalized to 1 in the Month Prior to the Hurricanes 1.06 1.05 1.04 1.03 1.02 1.01 1 0.99 0.98 Jul-04
Aug-04
Total Nonfarm
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Florida & Metro Forecast / October 2017
Sep-04
Oct-04
Real Estate, Rental, and Leasing
Nov-04 Leisure and Hospitality
Dec-04
Jan-05 Construction