Florida & Metro Economic Forecast October 2017 Irma Issue (Updated)

OC TO B ER 2017

Florida & Metro

FORECAST

IRMA ISSUE

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FLO R I DA & M E TRO FO R EC A S T 2017 - 2020

Published quarterly by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, College of Business Administration, University of Central Florida Copyright © 2017 Institute for Economic Competitiveness. All rights reserved.

Publications of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness are made possible by the following staff: Dr. Sean Snaith, Director Angela Ayala, Administrative Assistant Diana Merchant, Researcher Leigh Durden, Researcher Maegan Alexis Trinidad, Researcher Coulter Small, Researcher Brandt Dietry, Researcher This forecast was prepared based upon assumptions reflecting the Institute for Economic Competitiveness’ judgments as of the date it bears. Actual results could vary materially from the forecast. Neither the Institute for Economic Competitiveness nor the University of Central Florida shall be held responsible as a consequence of any such variance. Unless approved by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, the publication or distribution of this forecast and the preparation, publication or distribution of any excerpts from this forecast are prohibited.

TA B LE O F CO NTENTS

Florida Highlights and Summary................................................ 5-17 Florida Forecast Tables ................................................................ 18-23 Florida Forecast Charts .............................................................. 24-32 Florida News Summaries................................................................... 33 Deltona–Daytona Beach–Ormond Beach ..........................34-38 Gainesville ..........................................................................................39-43 Jacksonville ...................................................................................... 44-48 Lakeland–Winter Haven ..............................................................49-53 Miami–Fort Lauderdale–West Palm Beach ........................54-58 Naples–Immokalee–Marco Island ........................................... 59-63 Ocala ....................................................................................................64-68 Orlando–Kissimmee–Sanford ................................................... 69-73 Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville ................................................74-78 Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent .................................................... 79-83 Tallahassee.........................................................................................84-88 Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater ........................................89-93 Industry Location Quotient ..............................................................94

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Florida & Metro Forecast / October 2017

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OCTOBER 2017 FLORIDA FORECAST •

Hurricane Irma may have caused electric service to falter in the state, but it won’t take the power out of Florida’s economic recovery.

•

The greatest risk to Florida’s economic growth is not Irma, but the political tempest raging in Washington, D.C. that could wash away the prospect for economic stimulus needed to jumpstart the U.S. economy.

•

The hurricane’s economic impacts will be short-lived. The sectors that will be the most impacted over the next 2-3 months include Leisure & Hospitality (significant short-run job losses which will take several months to recoup) and Construction (strong growth in this sector will be significantly boosted by repair and rebuilding efforts).

•

From 2017-2020 Florida’s economy, as measured by Real Gross State Product, will expand at an average annual rate of 3.8%.

•

Real Gross State Product (RGSP) will expand 3.1% in 2017, 4.8% in 2018 before growth eases to 4.0% in 2019, and then to 3.2% in 2020. Average growth during 2017-2020 is expected to be 0.9 percentage points higher than our forecasted average for U.S. Real GDP growth over this period.

•

Payroll job growth in Florida is robust and continues to outpace national job growth. Year-over-year growth should average 2.4% in 2017, 2.8% in 2018, 2.3% in 2019, and 1.8% in 2020. Average job growth over the 2017-2020 period will be 0.8 percentage points faster than the national economy.

•

Labor force growth in Florida will average 2.2% from 2017-2020. Consistently strong payroll job creation continues to strengthen Florida’s labor market. The strong job market will continue to put more Floridians back on the hunt for employment and attract out-of-state job seekers.

•

This same labor force growth makes the task of lowering the state’s unemployment rate more challenging. Florida’s unemployment rate will level out around 4.0% during the next three years.

•

The sectors expected to have the strongest average job growth during 2017-2020 are Construction (6.5%), Professional & Business Services (5.2%), Financial (2.4%), Leisure & Hospitality (1.7%), Education & Health Services (1.7%), and Trade, Transportation & Utilities (1.5%).

•

Housing starts will accelerate going forward but not fast enough to alleviate the shortage of singlefamily housing in the short run. The hurricane recovery efforts will also further squeeze the market for construction labor. Total starts will be 117,161 in 2017, 147,638 in 2018, 154,633 in 2019, and 165,312 in 2020. House price appreciation will decelerate as supply catches up with demand.

•

Real personal income growth will average 4.4% during 2017-2020, starting with 2.4% growth in 2017, rising to 4.6% growth in 2018, 5.9% growth in 2019, and 4.6% growth in 2020. Florida’s average growth will exceed the national rate by 0.8 percentage points over that four-year span.

•

Retail sales will grow at an average pace of over 6.3% during 2017-2020 after some short-term, hurricane-related volatility boosted by a stronger national economy, continued strength in Florida’s labor market, and rising household wealth.

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FLORIDA SUMMARY

HUR R IC A N E IR MA

Hurricane Irma hit the Florida Keys on September 10th as a Category 4 storm. Its impact on the archipelago was devastating. The storm continued north, making a second landfall near Marco Island, where it continued a northward path along the length of western Florida.

Every part of the state was impacted by the storm, with nearly all counties experiencing at least tropical storm strength winds and power outages that were widespread and, in many areas, lasted for up to a week.

Irma was different than previous hurricanes that have impacted the state, as virtually no county went unscathed by this storm. There have been stronger storms that have hit the state, but they generally traversed across a section of the state, rather than traveling the entire length.

On September 11th, I was picking up shingles that had blown off my roof the night before and scattered across my and my neighbors lawns and trees. They were heavy and dirty, and as I picked up the pieces of my roof, I realized that I would have to go back and reopen the Florida & Metro Forecast this quarter: Irma changed the economic data, if only in the short run. Forecasting is a dirty business, too.

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Florida & Metro Forecast / October 2017

Natural disasters are a regular occurrence, and the economic impact of these events has been frequently analyzed in the academic literature.1 The extent and length of the impact, as you might expect, is in part a function of the magnitude and scope of the disaster.

It also depends on the level of economic development in the impacted area. Developing countries can see economic growth permanently lowered as a result of natural disasters, owing to a heavier dependence on agriculture which can be devastated by natural disasters. Also, the lack of capital required to rebuild infrastructure and other production capacity makes the recovery in such economies a more difficult task.

When natural disasters strike the U.S. economy, the impacts are often difficult to discern in data at the national level, though Irma’s impact on payroll employment was evident and third quarter GDP may also show some effects. These disasters impact just a small portion of the total economy and resources are readily available to help in relief and recovery efforts.

The same cannot be said for the small Caribbean nation

1

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/ S0959378014000351?via%3Dihub

FLORIDA SUMMARY

of Antigua and Barbuda, whose economies may never completely recover from the storm’s wrath.

The literature suggests that, for developed nations, the events can actually raise economic growth over time.

The mechanism by which this operates is a function of the capital that is being replaced is newer and thus more productive than the capital that was destroyed. The new air conditioning unit is more efficient, the computers are faster, the windows more energy efficient, and so on.

WHAT D OE S H U R R IC A N E I R MA ME A N FO R F LO R IDA’ S ECON O MY ?

Irma certainly isn’t the first hurricane to have hit the state. Since 1990, there have been 13 hurricanes with paths that significantly impacted the state. They are as follows: AN D R E W

DATE : 08/24/ 1992

C HA R LE Y DAT E : 0 8/ 1 3/20 0 4

Path: Hit the Keys and Cayo Costa as a Category 4, then passed up through Port Charlotte and moved across the state, hitting Orlando and entering the Atlantic at New Smyrna Beach as a Category 1.

FR A N C E S DAT E : 0 9/5/20 0 4

Path: Hit St. Martin and St. Lucie Counties as a Category 2, crossed the state and entered the Gulf near Tampa.

JEANNE

Path: Hit Hutchinson Island, moved west to Pasco County and then swung north toward Georgia.

D E N N IS

DATE: 08/02/ 1995-08/03/ 1995

Path: Hit East-Central Florida traveling west as a Category 1, which lost strength around Polk County, then restrengthened to a Category 2 in the Gulf before hitting Pensacola.

OPA L

DATE: 10/6/ 1995

Path: Hit Gulf, Florida Panhandle (Pensacola), hit as Category 4.

EARL

DATE : 09/ 1/ 1998

Path: Hit Florida Panhandle as a Category 2.

GE ORG ES DATE: 09/25/ 1998

Path: Hit Key West, then moved eastward over the Panhandle.

I R E NE

DATE : 10/ 15/ 1999

DAT E : 07/ 1 0/20 0 5

Path: Hit the Florida Keys.

WILM A

DAT E : 1 0/24/20 0 5

Path: After intensifying in the Gulf of Mexico, Wilma hit Cape Romano in Florida. Wilma crossed the state and entered the Atlantic near Jupiter.

Path: Hit South Florida traveling west, hit as Category 5 (this was the strongest hurricane to hit the state during this time period).

ERIN

DAT E : 0 9/26/20 0 4

HERMINE

DATE: 09/01/2016

Path: Turned in the Gulf, then passed upwards through the Panhandle. Cut through the Southeast U.S., entering the Atlantic near Virginia.

MATTHEW DATE: 10/7/2 016

Path: Moved up parallel to the coast of Florida, fading from a Category 4 to a Category 2. Eventually dissipated on October 9th off the coast of North Carolina.

IRMA DATE: 09/ 1 0/2017

Path: Initial landfall at Cudjoe Key as a Category 4. Then made second landfall as Category 3 on Marco Island. Eventually moved up, dissipating off the coast of New England.

Path: Hit Key West and then mainland Monroe County as a Category 1, crossed state and entered Atlantic in Palm Beach County.

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FLORIDA SUMMARY

Do any of these storms give us an insight into what Irma may have done to Florida’s economy? In some ways they all do, but as far as being directly comparable to the impact of Irma, there are just a few that bear mentioning.

cumulative impact on the state’s economy was more discernable than any single hurricane prior to Irma.

In quarterly data, it difficult to separate the effects of the hurricanes from other factors impacting the economy, but if we examine monthly payroll employment data, then the consequences of the hurricanes become more evident. Figure 1 below plots the path of overall payroll employment as well as employment in three sectors most impacted by hurricanes.

Andrew was the most powerful hurricane to have hit the state and its path took it across the southernmost portion of the peninsula. While Miami is the largest metro area in the state and because such a small fraction of the state was impacted by Andrew, it is probably not the best comparison for what the impacts of Irma might be.

The employment data in this chart normalizes employment for all four sectors to one for July 2004, the month prior to the first hurricane hitting the state. Thus subsequent months display the level of employment relative to what it was before the impact of the hurricanes.

Probably the closest comparable event to Irma over this time period occurred in 2004. That year, a trio of hurricanes—Charley, Frances, and Jeanne—impacted Florida in a period of about six weeks and the

Figure 1. The Payroll Employment Impact of the 2004 Hurricanes.

Hurricanes Charley/Frances/Jeanne Employment Levels Normalized to 1 in the Month Prior to the Hurricanes 1.06 1.05 1.04 1.03 1.02 1.01 1 0.99 0.98 Jul-04

Aug-04

Total Nonfarm

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Florida & Metro Forecast / October 2017

Sep-04

Oct-04

Real Estate, Rental, and Leasing

Nov-04 Leisure and Hospitality

Dec-04

Jan-05 Construction

FLORIDA SUMMARY

Hurricane Charley hit Florida in August of 2004 followed by Frances and Jeanne in September. In September, employment declined in each of these sectors. The largest overall decline occurred in the Leisure & Hospitality sector, where the declines were significant enough to pull it and overall payroll employment below their July levels. After September, the recovery of jobs ramped up and construction job growth accelerated as the process of repairing and rebuilding got underway. Recovery in tourism was slower than in these other sectors, but by October, employment had surpassed pre-hurricane levels.

Other measures of economic activity in the wake of these three hurricanes showed less distinct impacts.

The unemployment rate fell from 4.6% in July to 4.5% in October and further to 4.2% by January 2005.

The number of people who were unemployed in the state fell from 391,000 in July to 364,000 by January 2005. There were certainly individuals who became unemployed as a direct result of the storms, but the overall effects were not discernable.

The growth rate of Real Gross State Product, or Real State GDP, for Florida slowed from 3.9% in the 2nd quarter of 2004 to 2.7% in the 3rd quarter but subsequently accelerated to 9.0% in the final quarter of that year.

Since Irma impacted so much of the state, it is reasonable to assume that the impacts of the storm on the state’s economy will be larger than the combined effects of 2004’s three hurricanes. The path to recovery will likely look the same, perhaps extended by a month or two as a result of the widespread geographical area touched by the storm.

Add hurricanes to death and (federal) taxes on the list of things you can’t avoid in Florida. As certain as all these things are, so too is the state’s economic recovery from Hurricane Irma. The greatest risk to our economic outlook may be from the tempest that continues to rage in Washington, D.C.

FLORIDA’S HOUSING MARKET Shrinking Inventories Continue to Fuel Price Appreciation The August 2017 single-family home report released

by Florida Realtors portrays a market for existing housing that continues to tighten, fueling price appreciation that is closing in on the highs during the housing bubble. The median sales price for singlefamily homes increased $15,000 in August 2017 year over year, and now stands at $240,000—a yearover-year price appreciation of a strong 6.7%. Price appreciation in the townhome/condominium market continues as well, with an increase in the median sales price by $10,000 year over year, registering at $170,000 in August of this year.

Inventories of single-family homes in August are down from a year ago and are now just 3.8 months, indicating an inventory balance that continues to favor sellers in the single-family market, according to the Florida Realtors report.2 Inventories of condominiums decreased from 5.7 months’ supply back in August of 2016 to 5.4 months’ this August. This indicates that the condo market has moved into a market tilted in the sellers’ favor.

Distressed sales of single-family homes in the form of short sales continue to plummet year over year (-34.8%), as well as foreclosure/REO sales versus August 2016 (-45.4%). Traditional sales are up 5.9% year over year versus August 2016.

Distressed sales of condos in the form of short sales are also still rapidly contracting year over year (-39.4%), and foreclosure/REO sales are down sharply versus August 2016 (-49.1%). Traditional sales were up 7.4% in August 2017 when compared to May 2016.

2

According to the Florida Realtors, the benchmark for a balanced market (favoring neither buyer nor seller) is 5.5 months of inventory. Numbers above that indicate a buyers’ market, numbers below a sellers’ market. Other real estate economists suggest a 6 to 9 month inventory as being a balanced market.

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FLORIDA SUMMARY

The percentage of closed sales of single-family homes 30,000 that were cash transactions stood Realtor Sales 25,000 at 25.8% in August Moving Average 2017. For condos, that figure is much 20,000 higher, as 51.5% of all closings were 15,000 cash transactions.

Both of these 10,000 markets’ shares of cash transactions 5,000 have fallen year over year, which 0 points to a diminishing role Source: Florida Realtors of cash investors in Florida’s housing market amid improvement in mortgage availability year over year.3 Figure 2 depicts the monthly realtor sales of existing single-family homes as well as the 12-month moving average of these sales. This smoother moving average line levels out the seasonality and other statistical noise in monthly housing market data. Sales have been on a strong upward path and the 12-month moving average and monthly sales have now exceeded their peak value during the housing bubble. Sales growth coming out of the bottom has been on a stronger trend than the pre-bubble housing market, but over the past year, the 12-month moving average flattened out before resuming its climb. This may be a reflection of decreasing affordability in the face of the rapid price appreciation over the past two-plus years 3

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The Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI), put out by the Mortgage Bankers Association, increased 0.3 percent to 179.0 in July 2017 from June 2017. A decline in the index indicates that lending standards have eased slightly. The index is benchmarked to 100 in March 2012. Relative to that month, mortgages in July 2017 were 79.0% more available. In 2006, the value of this same index approached 900.

Florida & Metro Forecast / October 2017

Figure 2.

Florida Single-Family, Existing Homes

and a still depleted inventory of houses for sale.

The fundamentals of the housing market in Florida continue to strengthen. Economic and job growth in Florida are forecasted to continue to outperform the U.S. labor market, despite the temporary effects of Hurricane Irma. More Baby Boomers continue to reach the end of their working lives. This bodes well for continued population growth via the inmigration of retirees and job seekers to Florida. The population of Florida is also growing naturally, as birth rates exceed death rates. In addition to these sources of domestic population growth, international immigration will also feed into the state’s population growth, with both the economic and hurricane crises in Puerto Rico feeding into these inflows. We expect this upward trend in sales will resume, as increases in the supply of new housing in the future will help ameliorate rapid price appreciation given the improving economic and demographic foundations of demand for housing.

Figure 3 displays median sales prices for singlefamily existing homes. Median sales prices continue

FLORIDA SUMMARY Figure 3.

of 2.1% with Florida consumers Single-Family, Existing Homes regaining confidence, the $300,000 housing market Median Sales Price recovering, $250,000 Moving Average population growing, and $200,000 healing taking place in the $150,000 labor market; all of which $100,000 was building a foundation $50,000 for even faster economic $0 growth in the state. Growth Source: Florida Realtors accelerated to 2.6% in 2014 to climb since bottoming out in 2011. The doubleand 3.6% in 2015, then eased in 2016 to 3.0%, as the digit pace of price increases of 2015 and 2016 have national economy only grew 1.5% in that year. Florida eased in 2017. Still, over the past year, the 12-month is poised for another two-year acceleration in growth moving average of median sales prices has risen by before growth eases again in 2019 and 2020. $15,000.

Low inventories of existing homes for sale and sputtering housing starts growth contribute to an environment where home prices continue to rise at a rapid pace. The shortage in the single-family market will be rectified as the pace of single-family housing starts ramp up over the next several years. Singlefamily housing starts in 2020 are expected to increase by 94% from 2014 levels.

GROSS STATE PRODUCT Real Gross State Product (RGSP) or real state GDP growth in Florida is expected to grow at an average pace faster than what we are forecasting for U.S. Real GDP growth over the next four years.

In 2013, as the state finally exited the recession, Florida’s economy accelerated with a growth rate

The improvement of the fundamentals of the state’s economy helped accelerate growth in 2015, when RGSP expanded at 3.6%, the fastest growth rate in the recovery to date before decelerating in 2016 along with the national economy. In 2017 through 2018, however, growth will accelerate again if the Trump administration’s economic policy is implemented, which will help boost Florida’s economy. Growth in that two-year stretch is expected to be 3.1% and 4.8%.

During 2017-2020, Florida’s RGSP is expected to grow an average of 3.8% annually. In 2019 and 2020, however, growth will slow as anticipated increases in interest rates work their way through the economy.

This average growth of 3.8% during 2017 through 2020 is a faster pace of the average growth compared to the prior four years (when growth averaged

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FLORIDA SUMMARY

2.8%). This projected average rate of growth for Florida’s economy is significantly faster than the average of our forecasted real GDP growth for the U.S. economy over the same time frame (2.9%).

personal income growth during 2017-2020 will average 4.4% in Florida.

Nominal personal income will exceed $1.19 trillion in 2020, marking an increase in personal income in excess of $500 billion from its nadir in 2009.

Housing prices have made substantial progress In 2017, real disposable from the bottom of the income growth will Drone footage of homes destroyed in the Florida Keys housing crisis. During average 2.5%, down the crisis, median from the previous year’s existing home prices fell to a low of $122,200 but now 3.9% growth rate. Average growth in Florida during stand at $240,000. This ongoing price appreciation 2017-2020 will remain a healthy 4.3%, with U.S. real continues to repair damage done to household disposable income growth expected to average 3.2% balance sheets in Florida, but even with rapid price during the same time frame. If, however, tax reform appreciation, it will still take time to recover all the fails to make it out of Washington, this growth profile wealth lost in the housing market collapse. Housing will be significantly slower. prices plummeted from the median-price high of Financial markets have been in a bull market since $257,800 in June of 2006. the low point of the financial crisis, thanks in large Nominal Gross State Product (NGSP) continues part to the Federal Reserve Bank’s zero interest rate on track toward the $1 trillion mark and will be more policy and three massive rounds of quantitative easing. than $972 billion in 2017. In 2018, Florida will finally The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell to the 6,600 break that $1 trillion mark with an NGSP of $1.042 level in March of 2009 but then surged to an excess of trillion, then continue to climb to $1.108 trillion in 18,000. The stock market spent much of the time after 2019 before hitting $1.170 trillion in 2020. this recovery at or near the 18,000-point mark—until the 2016 presidential election.

PERSONAL INCOME, RETAIL SALES, AND Since Donald Trump was elected president, the stock AUTO SALES market has set multiple record highs, with the Dow In 2015, personal income growth in Florida hit touching 22,884 at its peak to date. Whether this 5.2%, then eased a bit in 2016, as growth came in rally was driven by expectations of a stronger economy at 4.6%. From here, personal income growth will under the Trump administration or other factors could decelerate further to 4.0% in 2017, before accelerating be debated. There is no debating that the stock market again to 5.9% in 2018 and then to 7.7% in 2019, has continued to set and break through multiple record before slipping to 6.9% in 2020. Florida is expected highs since the election. For those households holding to outpace the nation in real personal income growth, stocks and bonds directly or through retirement averaging 0.8 percentage points higher than the accounts, this bull-run has created trillions of dollars national average growth for 2017 through 2020. Real of wealth.

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Florida & Metro Forecast / October 2017

FLORIDA SUMMARY

The Fed embarked on another interest rate hike at their June FOMC meeting and will likely do so again in December. Interest rate hikes, which are likely to come at this more rapid pace going forward as economic growth accelerates, will weigh on future gains in the stock market. However, this faster economic growth will likely outweigh the drag of higher interest rates.

Home equity in Florida has not recovered as rapidly nor as completely as financial asset wealth, but housing prices have been climbing over the past five years. An acceleration in the rate of price appreciation in 2015 to a double-digit pace, which has eased somewhat in 2017, is creating significant gains in home equity wealth for Floridians; however, for many households in Florida, the effects of the lost home equity wealth will continue to weigh on consumer spending through the end of 2017 and into 2018. Financial asset wealth and home equity wealth should continue to grow nationwide, boosting consumer confidence and spending and financing the retirement of even more Baby Boomers to Florida.

With Florida’s strong labor market recovery sustaining its momentum, wage and salary growth that is finally materializing, and more home equity being recovered, retail spending will remain strong through 2020 after being tussled about by Hurricane

Irma, with growth averaging 6.3% during 2017-2020.

Consumers began to purchase light vehicles at a faster pace after the recession ended, releasing several years of pent-up demand, and continued to do so through 2016, though the pace has slowed considerably. However, sustained growth at a lower rate will be enabled by the availability of financing, in some cases interest-free, for the purchase of automobiles and light trucks, faster economic growth, and ongoing improvement to Florida’s labor market.

Vehicle registration growth in Florida reflected the venting of that pent-up demand, growing robustly during 2010-2015, when registrations grew at a yearover-year average rate in excess of 11.4%.

The now-vented pent-up demand will be replaced by new demand fueled by faster economic growth in Florida during 2017-2020. Over this period, vehicle registration growth in Florida is expected to average a more modest 3.3%, with growth being at its peak during this time in 2018 with growth at nearly 6.45%, before dipping in 2019 to 3.48%, and rising to 4.74% in 2020.

In 2020, Florida’s new passenger car and truck registrations will reach more than 1.533 million, rising from the 2019 projection of 1.464 million. Motor vehicle sales have been the strongest component of consumer spending over the past several years. This growth decelerated in 2016 and slipped again in 2017, but the pro-growth policy of the new presidential administration will keep this sector moving forward, extending to the streak of rising registrations in Florida to 11 years, carrying it through to the end of our current forecast horizon.

EMPLOYMENT Hurricane Irma has swirled some turbulence into Florida’s labor market, but it will not derail it from its current trends. The pace of Florida’s labor market recovery continues to exceed the Fort Lauderdale streets flood during Hurricane Irma Institute for Economic Competitiveness

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FLORIDA SUMMARY

recovery of the national job market. Our outlook for Florida remains unchanged by the storm and it is our belief that these trends will continue to be in place through at least 2020, but this gap in job growth will narrow as Florida’s pace of job creation decelerates.

Payroll job growth was robust in 2016 at 3.5%. That momentum began to dissipate in 2017 and will be further eroded by the hurricane. Growth decelerated slightly last year from 3.6%, and it is expected to ease to 2.4% in 2017, rise to 2.8% in 2018, and then fall to 2.3% in 2019 and 1.8% in 2020. Although job growth is expected to decelerate through our shortrun forecast horizon, Florida will continue to outpace national job growth over the entire forecast horizon (2017-2020) by an average of 0.8 percentage points.

The Construction sector is expected to be the fastest sector for job growth among all industrial sectors in Florida’s economy through the end of our 2020 forecast horizon.

growth of 7.6% in 2017, before decelerating to 7.4% in 2018, easing to 6.4% in 2019, and further to 4.7% in 2020.

Average annual job growth during 2017-2020 will be 6.5%. Employment will average 609,013 in 2020—a level that is 73,112 fewer jobs than the 2006 peak employment in the Construction sector. In Florida, the average salary for construction jobs is $48,372.

The Professional & Business Services sector will be the second fastest growing sector in the state on average through 2020. Job growth in this sector is expected to be strong, averaging 5.2% during 20172020. Job growth will ease in 2017 to 3.7% after growing 5.1% in 2016, before accelerating back to 7.4% in 2018. Growth in this sector will ease to 7.0% in 2019 before slowing to 2.8% in 2020.

The Professional & Business Services sector is comprised primarily of white-collar service providing businesses. The sector includes accounting firms, Construction job growth was expected to decelerate financial management companies, advertising agencies, slightly over the upcoming year but will remain strong, computer systems design firms, law firms, architectural as a surge in employment is anticipated in the wake and engineering companies, and temporary of the hurricane. employment agencies.

Over the next four Average salaries for quarters, construction this sector in Florida job growth is are near $59,176.4 expected to average The Professional and 8.4%. Housing Business Services sector starts continue to in Florida recovered grow in a market very quickly from the where inventories “Greater Recession” and remain at low levels was the first to recover resulting in sustained all its payroll jobs lost price appreciation during the recession and for existing singlewill continue to perform family homes. strongly through 2020.

Construction crane fallen after Hurricane Irma Despite episodic slowing in new home construction growth to the most recent Quarterly Census of Employment over the past four years, growth rates in housing starts 4 According and Wages: http://floridajobs.org/labor-market-information/ data-center/statistical-programs/quarterly-census-ofover the forecast horizon will support construction job employment-and-wages

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Florida & Metro Forecast / October 2017

FLORIDA SUMMARY

The Information sector is a mix of hightech sectors such as computer programming and software development, both sources of growth. However, the sector is weighed down by legacy media outlets including newspapers and magazines, which continue to struggle with structural changes in the gathering and dissemination of information and who pays for it. Sources of growth within this sector in Florida, such as software development, data processing and hosting, wireless telecommunications, and content creation, are beginning to offset the ongoing loss of jobs in traditional media and publishing. Even so, the pace of job growth when it returns will remain muted.

A fallen palm tree after Hurricane Irma

Growth finally turned positive in 2013 and stayed in this territory through 2016. Job growth is expected to be -0.3% in 2017, as the sector loses jobs for the first time since 2012. Growth is expected to slip further to -1.6% in 2018 before accelerating to 1.0% in 2019 and to 1.5% in 2020. The projected growth path implies an average growth rate of just 0.2% during 2017-2020.

The Education & Health Services sector in Florida grew consistently throughout this historic business cycle. Demand from the state’s large share of residents 65 years and older who have higher demand for health services has supported this growth. The future replacement of the Affordable Care Act is still being hashed out in Congress. This creates a cloud of uncertainty over the health sector but despite this uncertainty job growth will continue, though at a diminished rate. During 2017-2020, employment in this sector is expected to continue to expand at an average rate of 1.7%. In Florida, average salaries in this sector stand at $48,220.

Manufacturing employment expanded in Florida at an average rate of 3.6% in 2016, which was the best growth rate in more than 16 years; 2017 should see an easing, but still strong growth. The economic

environment for the manufacturing sector is becoming more unfriendly as global economic environments remain tenuous, trade agreements are in flux, and the U.S. dollar, “though weakened in the past six months” continues to be strong.

The weakening of economic growth abroad, including a slowdown in China, Brexit and its aftermath, and the flagging recovery from a historic recession in Brazil, all feed into the current global economic environment. The Trump administration’s efforts to retain and bring back manufacturing jobs via trade policy may or may not have a significant impact on this sector. These efforts could yield a positive outcome in the end, but in the meantime create a higher level of uncertainty regarding the outlook for the sector.

These developments will eventually weigh on the rate of job growth in the manufacturing sector, but in Florida in 2017, job growth will average 3.0%.

We are looking at job growth of 1.1% in manufacturing for 2018, followed by a slight acceleration to 1.2% in 2019 with another small bump in growth in 2020, when manufacturing employment will expand at an average rate of 1.3%. Average job growth during 2017-2020 will thus come in at 1.7%.

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FLORIDA SUMMARY

The State & Local Government sector in Florida are enjoying improved revenue flows as housing prices continue to climb; property tax revenue is rising as well. Despite this improvement, revenues for local governments are still below their peaks in the housing boom, even in the fastest growing housing markets around the state. Government budget shortfalls led to job losses in this sector that persisted for six years, from 2009 through 2014. Despite growing tax revenues, the memory of that prolonged budgetary crisis has kept spending growth modest and employment growth subdued.

Hurricane Irma is already placing a strain on the state budget, one that is likely to grow as recovery continues and sales tax revenue takes a hit from the tourism sector.

Average job growth in the Federal Government sector in Florida will average 0.6%, with growth turning negative in 2018 and remaining in negative territory until the temporary hiring surge during the census year in 2020.

Any long-term solution to our federal deficit and debt problems will involve additional revenue, but ultimately cuts in discretionary federal spending will be needed as entitlement programs continue to swell, consuming an increasing piece of the federal revenue pie. The proposed fiscal policies of the Trump administration—large infrastructure spending coupled with tax cuts—will exacerbate the national debt situation over the next four years—if these policies are enacted.

As the Federal Reserve begins to As Florida’s move more quickly population and with interest rate economy continue hikes, the burden of to grow, the demand servicing a national for state and local debt that is currently government services more than $20.37 Truck flipped over from hurricane Irma winds in Miami will grow as well. To trillion and poised meet this demand, to go higher will growth in state and local government employment will require a larger share of federal tax revenue. The be necessary, but will not rise to the levels seen during pain of running four years of trillion-dollar deficits the housing boom. In the near term, the fiscal impact has been dampened by historically low interest rates of Hurricane Irma will put a chill on hiring. Average on Treasury Bonds. However, that pain is going to job growth in State and Local Government during intensify with Treasury rates that climb along with the 2017-2020 will be 1.2%, with annual growth rising Fed’s increases in the federal funds rate, higher rates of to 1.4% in 2019 and 2020. The 2019-2020 growth inflation, and a Trump administration poised to reflate rates are expected to be the fastest since before the annual budget deficits. recession.

UNEMPLOYMENT On the other hand, the outlook for Federal Government employment growth in Florida will The unemployment rate in Florida has plunged from begin to worsen over the near-term forecast horizon. its recession-driven peak level of 11.2% in January 16

Florida & Metro Forecast / October 2017

FLORIDA SUMMARY

2010 to stand at 4.0% as of August 2017. After five years well above the national rate of unemployment, Florida’s August 2017 unemployment rate is 0.4 percentage points below the national unemployment rate.

reenter Florida’s labor force. This will result in slow declines in the unemployment rate leveling out it the latter half of our forecast horizon.

rate and the continued migration of Baby Boomer retirees to the Sunshine State should weigh on the participation rate. In August 2017, Florida’s population over the age of sixteen grew by 307,000 year over year, while its labor force grew by 250,000.

U-6 unemployment in Florida is well down from its average readings of 12.8% in 2014, 14.3% in 2013, 16% in 2012, 17.6% in 2011, and down 9.0 percentage points from its peak average rate of 19.3% in 2010 (the nation’s U-6 averaged 16.7% in 2010).

Nationally, and in Florida, the level of workers who are working part-time but not by choice, and workers Florida’s labor force participation rate in August marginally attached to the labor force—defined 2017 stood at 59.5%, which is up from 59.1% one year as workers who are neither working nor currently earlier. The national labor force participation rate stood looking for work, but indicate that they want and at 62.9% in August 2017, which is down 0.1 points are available for a job, and have looked for work in from August 2016. This is the lowest level for the the past 12 months—remain elevated. When adding national labor force participation rate since March of these workers and discouraged workers—defined as 1978 and is down 3.1 percentage points from the start workers who are currently not working and did not of the recession. look for a job in the four weeks preceding the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly survey of households—to The labor force participation rate is calculated as the headline unemployment figure, U-3, we get the the percentage of the population aged 16 and older broadest measure of unemployment estimated by the who are counted as participating in the labor force.

BLS, known as U-6.

The number of retirees in that population, who are obviously older than sixteen but are no longer working Looking at U-6, we see a labor market that is still or seeking work, push down the overall labor force deeply scarred, as U-6 in Florida averaged 10.0% participation rate. during the 3rd quarter of 2016 through the 2nd quarter of 2017, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The relatively higher share of the population in Meanwhile, the national rate of U-6 averaged 9.2% Florida who are in retirement explains why the state’s labor force participation rate is lower than the national over that same time period.

We are forecasting solid economic growth in Florida over the next several years as well as continued growth in payroll jobs. This faster economic and job growth will generate a more rapidly growing labor force, making additional progress in reducing the unemployment rate increasingly challenging. After 2016’s growth of 2.1%, we expect the labor force to continue to grow near this level during 2017-2020 at an average rate of 2.2%, despite the downward pressure from retiree migration. Going forward, job seekers will be encouraged by the robust payroll job growth in the state and become motivated to enter or

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

17

F L O R I D A TA B L E S

Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Personal Income (Bil. $)

793.1

798.9

853.3

Personal Income and GSP 900.6 942.4 979.6

Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago)

2.6 5.0

0.7 1.2

6.8 5.3

5.6 5.0

4.6 2.4

4.0 3.4

1037.7

1117.3

1194.5

5.9 5.2

7.7 6.7

6.9 6.2

Personal Income (Bil. 2009$) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago)

755.3 0.7 3.0

750.1 -0.7 -0.2

787.2 4.9 3.7

827.8 5.2 4.7

857.3 3.6 1.2

878.1 2.4 1.8

918.8 4.6 3.7

972.6 5.9 5.0

1017.1 4.6 4.0

Disp. Income (Bil. 2009$) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago)

685.2 0.4 3.1

673.1 -1.8 -1.4

703.6 4.5 3.5

735.6 4.6 3.5

764.1 3.9 2.5

783.2 2.5 2.4

821.7 4.9 3.4

867.9 5.6 3.8

904.7 4.2 3.2

GSP (Bil. $)

764.1

794.6

832.3

(%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. 2009$)

3.1 729.4

4.0 744.6

4.7 763.7

883.9

926.8

972.9

1042.3

1108.0

1170.1

6.2 791.4

4.9 815.1

5.0 840.0

7.1 880.3

6.3 915.4

5.6 944.8

(%Ch Year ago)

0.8

2.1

2.6

3.6

3.0

3.1

4.8

4.0

3.2

Employment

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change Year Ago) 2.4 2.1 2.3 1.6 2.5 3.9 2.0 1.9

1.8

Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%)

0.8 8.4

0.7 7.1

1.3 6.2

0.7 5.3

2.1 4.9

3.3 4.4

1.8 4.1

1.8 4.0

1.8 4.0

U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

8.1

7.4

6.2

5.3

4.9

4.4

4.2

4.1

4.1

NonFarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change Year Ago) Total Nonfarm U.S.

1.7

1.6

1.9

2.1

1.8

1.6

1.5

1.5

1.4

2.0

2.5

3.2

3.6

3.5

2.4

2.8

2.3

1.8

-0.3 2.0

0.5 6.9

0.9 8.6

1.9 8.8

-1.1 9.5

-0.9 7.6

-0.8 7.4

-2.1 6.4

-1.5 4.7

Manufacturing Nondurable Goods

1.6 1.1

1.5 -0.2

3.0 1.2

3.4 1.5

3.6 4.0

3.0 0.5

1.1 -0.1

1.2 0.1

1.3 0.4

Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade

1.8 2.1 1.8

2.5 2.7 1.0

3.8 3.2 2.0

4.3 4.7 2.3

3.4 4.3 1.3

4.2 1.3 3.6

1.7 1.9 2.2

1.7 1.5 1.9

1.6 1.2 2.1

Retail Trade Financial Activities Prof. and Business Services

2.4 2.7 3.7

2.7 2.7 4.0

3.8 1.7 4.2

3.7 2.4 5.0

2.1 2.4 5.1

1.4 1.3 3.7

-0.5 4.2 7.4

0.1 2.4 7.0

0.4 1.8 2.8

Edu & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information

1.7 4.2 -1.5

1.7 4.0 0.4

2.7 4.6 1.5

3.6 4.5 0.3

3.6 3.6 0.3

2.8 1.1 -0.3

1.2 3.5 -1.6

0.9 1.0 1.0

1.9 1.4 1.5

Federal Gov't.

State & Local Gov't.

-0.9 -1.4

-0.6 -0.3

-0.5 -0.1

2.0 0.5

2.6 1.1

1.3 0.7

-1.5 1.2

-1.7 1.4

4.3 1.4

Florida Mining Construction

Population (thous) (%Ch Year ago)

1.3

1.3

1.6

1.8

1.8

1.7

1.6

1.5

1.5

207.2 -0.2

237.9 14.8

299.0 26.3

339.9 14.6

340.7 0.3

327.1 -3.9

315.7 -3.4

306.2 -3.0

300.1 -2.0

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous)

59.3

80.6

79.8

103.2

Housing 112.7

117.2

147.6

154.6

165.3

Housing Starts Single Family (thous) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

42.5 16.8

54.6 26.0

56.0 23.8

68.2 35.0

77.4 35.4

84.2 33.0

99.6 48.0

103.5 51.1

110.0 55.3

1.9

1.6

1.8

2.1

2.8

3.0

2.9

Net Migration (thous) (%Ch Year ago)

(%Ch Year ago)

18

Population and Migration 19373.3 19624.7 19936.4 20291.6 20656.5 21006.6 21349.5 21680.2 22004.1

Florida & Metro Forecast / October 2017

Consumer Prices 0.3 1.7

F L O R I D A TA B L E S

Table 2. Quarterly Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida* 2017Q1

2017Q2

2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q1

Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) Personal Income (Bil. 2009$) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) Disp. Income (Bil. 2009$) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. 2009$) (%Ch Year ago)

966.6 4.6 3.1 868.8 2.7 1.1 775.2 2.8 2.1 955.6 5.4 830.9 3.6

974.3 3.9 2.8 875.4 2.4 1.3 781.0 2.5 2.3 966.9 5.3 837.3 3.6

984.3 3.2 3.2 881.8 1.8 1.8 786.3 1.9 2.4 978.5 4.5 843.2 2.6

993.1 4.1 4.3 886.4 2.8 2.9 790.5 2.8 2.8 990.6 4.6 848.5 2.5

1010.6 4.6 4.3 899.3 3.5 3.1 804.5 3.8 3.1 1014.0 6.1 863.6 3.9

Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

3.1 3.1 4.9 4.7

4.3 3.7 4.3 4.4

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

2020Q1

Personal Income and GSP 1028.2 1046.2 1065.8 5.5 6.3 7.3 5.0 5.5 6.1 911.9 924.8 939.1 4.2 4.9 5.9 3.5 3.9 4.5 816.0 827.4 838.8 4.5 5.2 6.1 3.3 3.5 3.7 1034.1 1051.8 1069.4 7.0 7.5 8.0 875.6 885.8 896.0 4.6 5.1 5.6

1088.0 7.7 6.6 954.5 6.1 5.1 853.1 6.0 3.9 1086.2 7.1 904.9 4.8

1107.4 7.7 6.7 966.7 6.0 5.1 863.0 5.8 3.8 1100.7 6.4 911.9 4.1

1127.5 7.8 6.8 979.1 5.9 5.0 873.1 5.5 3.8 1115.0 6.0 918.7 3.7

1146.4 7.6 6.7 990.1 5.4 4.7 882.3 5.2 3.7 1130.1 5.7 926.0 3.3

1166.8 7.2 6.5 1002.1 5.0 4.4 892.1 4.6 3.4 1146.2 5.5 933.7 3.2

2.0 1.8 4.0 4.1

1.9 1.8 4.0 4.1

1.8 1.8 4.1 4.1

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change Year Ago) 4.3 4.0 3.1 1.9 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 3.5 3.1 2.2 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 NonFarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change Year Ago)

Total Nonfarm U.S. Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities Prof. and Business Services Edu & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't.

State & Local Gov't.

1.6 3.1 -1.1 7.8 3.3 2.1 3.9 1.9 2.1 2.7 2.1

1.6 2.7 -2.3 6.8 3.1 0.1 4.5 1.4 3.3 1.7 1.9

1.5 2.1 -0.1 6.0 3.0 -0.3 4.6 1.1 3.7 0.5 1.4

1.6 1.8 -0.2 9.7 2.7 0.2 3.9 0.9 5.4 0.7 -0.2

1.6 2.2 -0.8 7.6 1.7 -0.2 2.6 1.8 3.4 -0.2 2.3

1.6 2.7 0.2 8.0 1.5 0.7 1.8 2.1 2.1 -0.2 3.8

1.5 3.0 -0.9 8.5 0.7 -0.4 1.2 2.0 1.9 -0.5

1.4 3.3 -1.6 5.6 0.7 -0.7 1.3 1.8 1.6 -0.9

1.5 2.7 -1.9 6.3 0.8 -0.5 1.4 1.6 1.9 -0.4

1.5 2.3 -2.1 6.6 0.9 -0.2 1.4 1.5 2.0 0.0

1.5 2.2 -2.2 6.5 1.4 0.5 1.8 1.4 1.8 0.3

1.4 2.0 -2.1 6.1 1.7 0.8 2.1 1.4 1.7 0.3

1.3 1.8 -1.9 5.4 1.6 0.7 2.1 1.3 1.9 0.2

3.8 3.5 3.1 0.0 2.2 1.0

3.7 3.0 2.9 -0.2 2.2 0.7

3.3 2.7 1.2 -0.1 0.8 0.3

4.2 2.1 -2.9 -0.9 -0.1 0.9

5.6 1.6 1.0 -2.0 0.0 1.1

7.1 1.4 2.3 -2.1 -1.3 1.2

4.7 8.1 1.1 3.5 -1.4 -2.2 1.2

6.0 8.7 0.8 7.1 -0.8 -2.7 1.2

3.6 8.8 0.8 2.2 0.9 -2.7 1.2

2.2 7.6 0.9 0.7 1.2 -2.0 1.4

1.9 6.4 0.9 0.5 0.9 -1.3 1.5

1.9 5.2 1.2 0.7 0.9 -1.0 1.6

1.9 3.3 1.6 0.9 1.4 -1.9 1.6

20,876.7

20,960.9

21,050.5 21,138.3

21,224.0

21,307.7

1.7 80.9 -6.5

1.7 79.1 -8.7

1.7 84.4 -0.4

1.7 82.7 -0.1

1.7 80.6 -0.5

1.7 78.4 -0.8

1.6 78.6 -6.8

1.6 78.1 -5.6

21,557.6 21,639.8

1.6 77.5 -3.8

1.6 76.8 -2.0

21,721.2

21,802.3

21,883.3

1.5 76.0 -3.3

1.5 75.8 -2.9

1.5 75.5 -2.7

126.6 82.6 44.0

104.6 82.8 21.8

111.6 82.4 29.2

125.7 88.8 36.9

141.0 95.9 45.2

148.4 98.8 49.6

Housing 151.5 102.2 49.3

149.6 101.7 47.9

150.2 101.4 48.8

153.4 102.4 51.0

156.3 104.2 52.1

158.6 106.0 52.6

161.7 107.6 54.1

2.8

2.0

1.8

1.9

2.0

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.2

3.1

Population and Migration Population (thous) (%Ch Year ago) Net Migration (thous) (%Ch Year ago)

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous) Housing Starts Single Family (thous) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

21,391.5 21,474.8

Consumer Prices (%Ch Year ago)

2.9

3.2

3.2

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

19

F L O R I D A TA B L E S

Table 3. Employment Quarterly*

2017Q1

2017Q2

2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

2020Q1

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

8,545.8

8,579.5

8,606.1

8,626.1

8,737.6

8,810.9

8,861.5

8,914.0

8,972.9

9,017.4

9,055.6

9,096.4

9,133.4

Manufacturing

363.3

365.1

367.7

368.4

369.6

370.5

370.4

370.9

372.5

373.9

375.5

377.1

378.6

Durable Goods

247.7

250.6

252.5

252.9

254.1

255.2

255.6

256.3

257.6

258.9

260.1

261.5

262.9

Wood Products

13.9

14.0

14.0

13.9

14.2

14.3

14.5

14.8

15.1

15.3

15.6

15.9

16.1

Computer & Electronics

41.8

41.9

42.1

42.2

42.4

42.6

42.7

42.8

42.6

42.3

42.1

41.9

42.0

Transportation Equipment

41.5

42.0

42.2

42.2

42.3

42.2

42.0

41.8

42.0

42.2

42.4

42.7

43.0

115.6

114.4

115.2

115.5

115.5

115.3

114.8

114.7

114.8

115.1

115.3

115.6

115.7

31.8

31.7

31.9

32.0

32.1

32.1

32.1

32.1

32.3

32.4

32.5

32.7

32.8

8,182.5

8,214.4

8,238.3

8,257.7

8,368.0

8,440.5

8,491.1

8,543.0

8,600.4

8,643.5

8,680.1

8,719.3

8,754.7

5.7

5.7

5.7

5.7

5.7

5.7

5.6

5.6

5.6

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.5

Construction

497.7

501.9

507.4

529.7

535.5

542.1

550.3

559.6

569.4

577.8

586.0

593.5

600.1

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

280.3

281.1

282.2

283.8

285.3

287.0

287.9

289.0

290.0

291.1

292.0

293.0

293.7

Wholesale Trade

345.2

351.0

353.4

356.5

356.9

358.2

360.1

362.2

363.8

365.3

366.7

368.3

370.8

1,120.8

1,116.9

1,116.2

1,121.2

1,118.8

1,114.4

1,111.0

1,110.6

1,114.5

1,115.0

1,114.8

1,114.3

1,117.1

136.7

136.5

136.5

136.3

134.0

133.7

134.6

135.2

135.2

135.3

135.7

136.4

137.0

1,311.9

1,325.0

1,338.7

1,356.8

1,385.7

1,418.6

1,447.4

1,475.4

1,507.0

1,526.1

1,539.3

1,551.7

1,557.1

Admin. & Support

672.5

672.6

682.0

694.7

718.7

745.6

767.5

787.8

809.4

818.5

822.1

825.7

823.3

Prof. Sci & Tech

535.7

548.1

552.1

557.1

561.9

567.7

574.3

581.6

591.6

601.3

610.8

619.4

626.9

Mgmt. of Co.

103.7

104.4

104.7

105.0

105.1

105.4

105.7

105.9

106.0

106.2

106.4

106.5

107.0

Financial Activities

553.6

555.7

555.1

551.3

566.2

576.8

581.0

584.3

586.7

589.3

592.1

595.3

597.9

Real Estate & Rent

185.0

186.0

181.6

173.1

183.3

190.2

191.0

191.8

192.4

193.1

194.1

195.2

196.2

Fin. & Insurance

368.5

369.7

373.4

378.2

382.8

386.6

390.0

392.6

394.4

396.2

398.0

400.1

401.7

1,270.0

1,274.0

1,281.9

1,287.7

1,289.8

1,292.4

1,295.6

1,298.0

1,299.6

1,303.6

1,307.6

1,313.4

1,320.1

161.4

160.3

160.4

159.8

159.0

158.5

158.3

158.3

158.1

158.0

158.0

157.9

157.8

Health Services

1,108.7

1,113.7

1,121.5

1,127.9

1,130.8

1,133.9

1,137.3

1,139.7

1,141.5

1,145.6

1,149.6

1,155.5

1,162.4

Leisure & Hospitality

1,200.0

1,203.3

1,193.2

1,155.0

1,211.7

1,231.0

1,234.8

1,237.0

1,238.6

1,239.8

1,241.5

1,245.1

1,249.9

360.2

361.2

363.3

365.6

367.4

368.3

369.2

370.0

370.9

371.4

372.1

372.4

373.6

1,100.3

1,102.2

1,104.9

1,108.2

1,111.1

1,112.3

1,113.6

1,116.2

1,119.2

1,123.2

1,126.9

1,130.4

1,131.9

Federal Gov't.

138.8

139.3

139.2

139.1

138.8

137.5

136.1

135.3

135.0

134.7

134.4

134.1

132.5

State & Local Gov't

961.5

962.9

965.8

969.0

972.3

974.8

977.5

980.9

984.1

988.5

992.5

996.3

999.4

Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

Retail Trade Information Prof. & Bus. Services

Edu. & Health Service Education Services

Other Services Government

*Quarterly at an annual rate

20

Florida & Metro Forecast / October 2017

F L O R I D A TA B L E S

Table 4. Employment Annual

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

8,831.0

9,035.6

9,202.3

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

7,396.7

7,581.6

7,823.4

8,106.0

Manufacturing

317.4

322.3

331.8

343.1

355.4

366.1

370.3

374.8

379.5

Durable Goods

209.9

215.0

223.2

232.8

240.8

250.9

255.3

259.5

263.8

8.8

10.4

11.3

12.6

13.5

14.0

14.4

15.5

16.5

Computer & Electronics

42.5

41.0

40.7

41.1

41.4

42.0

42.6

42.2

42.0

Transportation Equipment

35.4

36.4

37.5

39.4

40.9

42.0

42.1

42.3

43.3

107.5

107.3

108.6

110.2

114.6

115.2

115.1

115.2

115.7

29.2

29.5

29.8

30.3

31.4

31.8

32.1

32.5

32.8

7,079.3

7,259.3

7,491.5

7,763.0

8,032.2

8,223.2

8,460.6

8,660.8

8,822.8

5.6

5.7

5.7

5.8

5.8

5.7

5.7

5.5

5.5

Construction

342.1

365.9

397.3

432.4

473.3

509.2

546.9

581.7

609.0

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

240.5

246.9

254.8

266.7

278.2

281.8

287.3

291.5

295.0

Wholesale Trade

317.9

320.9

327.5

334.8

339.3

351.5

359.3

366.0

373.5

Retail Trade

978.3

1,004.8

1,043.0

1,081.1

1,103.4

1,118.8

1,113.7

1,114.6

1,118.9

Information

133.6

134.2

136.1

136.6

136.9

136.5

134.4

135.7

137.7

1,074.4

1,117.5

1,164.3

1,222.2

1,285.0

1,333.1

1,431.8

1,531.0

1,574.2

Admin. & Support

538.0

558.9

585.0

618.9

654.7

680.4

754.9

818.9

828.7

Prof. Sci & Tech

451.0

467.4

485.1

506.6

529.9

548.2

571.4

605.8

637.8

85.4

91.2

94.2

96.7

100.4

104.4

105.5

106.3

107.7

Financial Activities

499.5

512.8

521.3

534.1

546.8

553.9

577.1

590.9

601.7

Real Estate & Rent

160.1

165.5

171.0

176.8

180.7

181.4

189.1

193.7

197.5

Fin. & Insurance

339.5

347.3

350.3

357.3

366.2

372.5

388.0

397.2

404.2

1,109.2

1,128.1

1,158.8

1,200.1

1,243.4

1,278.4

1,294.0

1,306.0

1,330.4

Education Services

139.5

142.5

147.5

151.8

156.8

160.5

158.5

158.0

157.8

Health Services

969.7

985.6

1,011.3

1,048.3

1,086.7

1,117.9

1,135.4

1,148.0

1,172.6

Leisure & Hospitality

997.5

1,037.4

1,085.2

1,134.1

1,175.3

1,187.9

1,228.6

1,241.3

1,258.2

Other Services

301.6

309.2

323.1

333.7

349.7

362.6

368.7

371.7

374.7

1,079.1

1,075.9

1,074.3

1,081.3

1,095.1

1,103.9

1,113.3

1,124.9

1,144.0

Federal Gov't.

132.7

132.0

131.3

133.9

137.4

139.1

136.9

134.6

140.3

State & Local Gov't

946.4

943.9

943.0

947.4

957.7

964.8

976.4

990.4

1,003.7

Wood Products

Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

Prof. & Bus. Services

Mgmt. of Co.

Edu. & Health Service

Government

8,387.6 8589.36

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

21

F L O R I D A TA B L E S

Table 5. Personal Income-Quarterly*

2017Q1

2017Q2

2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

2020Q1

1127.5

1146.4

1166.8

Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

966.6

974.3

984.3

993.1

1010.6

1028.2

1046.2

1065.8

1088.0

1107.4

Wages & Salaries

438.2

443.7

448.3

452.3

462.3

470.7

478.3

486.1

494.3

501.7

508.9

516.2

523.7

Other Labor Income

94.9

95.7

96.6

97.3

98.3

99.0

99.9

100.8

102.1

103.1

104.2

105.2

106.8

Nonfarm

55.6

55.7

56.5

57.7

59.0

60.1

61.0

62.3

63.5

64.3

65.1

65.9

66.7

1.9

1.0

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

Property Income

Farm

243.2

245.4

248.9

251.3

254.2

259.6

266.8

274.6

282.7

291.1

300.3

308.2

315.8

Transfer Payments

197.8

198.7

200.0

201.5

205.2

207.8

210.4

213.4

218.5

221.2

224.0

226.8

231.6

68.7

69.5

70.6

71.6

72.7

73.6

74.6

75.7

77.4

78.4

79.4

80.5

82.3

Social Insurance

Billions 2009 $ Personal Income

868.8

875.4

881.8

886.4

899.3

911.9

924.8

939.1

954.5

966.7

979.1

990.1

1002.1

Wages & Salaries

393.9

398.6

401.6

403.7

411.3

417.5

422.8

428.3

433.6

438.0

441.9

445.9

449.8

Other Labor Income

85.3

86.0

86.5

86.9

87.4

87.8

88.3

88.8

89.6

90.0

90.4

90.9

91.7

Nonfarm

49.9

50.1

50.6

51.5

52.5

53.3

54.0

54.9

55.7

56.1

56.5

57.0

57.3

1.7

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.6

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

Property Income

218.6

220.5

223.0

224.3

226.2

230.3

235.9

242.0

248.0

254.1

260.8

266.2

271.2

Transfer Payments

177.8

178.5

179.1

179.9

182.6

184.3

186.0

188.0

191.7

193.1

194.5

195.9

198.9

61.7

62.5

63.2

63.9

64.7

65.3

65.9

66.7

67.9

68.4

69.0

69.5

70.6

1272.0

1294.2

1348.5

1409.4

1406.6

1406.1

1420.3

1427.2

1445.0

1458.1

1466.6

1487.7

1516.8

Farm

Social Insurance

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations Retail Sales (Billions $)

341.6

344.4

349.3

356.1

362.6

368.0

374.8

381.5

388.1

394.2

399.9

406.2

413.2

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2009$)

307.1

309.5

312.9

317.8

322.6

326.4

331.3

336.1

340.5

344.1

347.3

350.8

354.9

*Quarterly at an annual rate

22

Florida & Metro Forecast / October 2017

F L O R I D A TA B L E S

Table 6. Personal Income-Annual

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

793.1

798.9

853.3

900.6

942.4

979.6

1037.7

1117.3

1194.5

Wages & Salaries

346.3

358.4

378.7

403.9

428.3

445.6

474.3

505.3

535.5

Other Labor Income

78.2

81.3

82.8

88.5

92.8

96.1

99.5

103.6

108.5

Nonfarm

39.6

38.7

45.4

50.6

53.3

56.4

60.6

64.7

67.9

1.3

1.1

1.2

1.8

1.8

1.1

0.6

0.5

0.5

Property Income

217.2

211.7

230.6

235.3

238.6

247.2

263.8

295.6

325.8

Transfer Payments

156.3

161.3

171.4

180.3

190.5

199.5

209.2

222.6

236.2

48.8

56.8

60.1

63.3

66.6

70.1

74.2

78.9

83.8

Farm

Social Insurance

Billions 2009 $ Personal Income

755.3

750.1

787.2

827.8

857.3

878.1

918.8

972.6

1017.1

Wages & Salaries

329.8

336.5

349.4

371.2

389.7

399.4

420.0

439.9

456.0

Other Labor Income

74.5

76.3

76.4

81.4

84.4

86.2

88.1

90.2

92.4

Nonfarm

37.7

36.3

41.9

46.5

48.5

50.5

53.7

56.3

57.8

1.2

1.1

1.1

1.7

1.6

1.0

0.5

0.4

0.4

Property Income

206.8

198.8

212.7

216.2

217.1

221.6

233.6

257.3

277.4

Transfer Payments

148.8

151.4

158.1

165.7

173.3

178.8

185.2

193.8

201.1

46.5

53.3

55.4

58.2

60.6

62.8

65.7

68.7

71.4

1006.9

1101.0

1224.2

1337.3

1352.7

1331.0

1415.0

1464.3

1533.7

Retail Sales (Billions $)

279.6

294.4

310.7

321.2

331.3

347.9

371.7

397.1

422.8

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2009$)

266.3

276.4

286.6

295.2

301.4

311.8

329.1

345.7

360.0

Farm

Social Insurance

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

23

FLORIDA CHARTS

Florida & U.S. Unemployment Rate (Percent)

14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 FL Unemployment Rate U.S. Unemployment Rate

Florida Construction Employment (Thousands)

700.0 600.0 500.0 400.0 300.0

24

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Florida & Metro Forecast / October 2017

FLORIDA CHARTS

Florida Consumer Price Index (Percent Change Year Ago)

6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4%

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 FL CPI

Florida Education & Health Services Employment 1400.0

(Thousands)

1300.0 1200.0 1100.0 1000.0 900.0 800.0

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

25

FLORIDA CHARTS

Florida Federal Government Employment (Thousands)

160.0 150.0 140.0 130.0 120.0 110.0

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Florida Financial Activities Employment 620.0 600.0 580.0 560.0 540.0 520.0 500.0 480.0 460.0

26

(Thousands)

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Florida & Metro Forecast / October 2017

FLORIDA CHARTS

Florida Information Employment 180.0

(Thousands)

170.0 160.0 150.0 140.0 130.0

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Florida Gross State Product 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6%

(Percent Change Year Ago)

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 FL Gross State Product

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

27

FLORIDA CHARTS

Florida Housing Starts (Thousands)

300.0 250.0

6.0%

200.0 150.0

5.0%

100.0

4.0%

50.0 0.0

7.0%

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Total Private Housing Starts 30 year Mortgage Rates

3.0%

Florida Leisure & Hospitality Employment (Thousands)

1300.0 1200.0 1100.0 1000.0 900.0 800.0

28

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Florida & Metro Forecast / October 2017

FLORIDA CHARTS

Florida Manufacturing Employment 440.0

(Thousands)

420.0 400.0 380.0 360.0 340.0 320.0 300.0

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

New Passenger Car & Light Truck Registrations 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50%

(Percent Change Year Ago)

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

29

FLORIDA CHARTS

Florida Personal Income (Percent Change Year Ago)

12% 9% 6% 3% 0% -3% -6% -9%

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Florida Professional & Business Services Employment (Thousands)

1600.0 1500.0 1400.0 1300.0 1200.0 1100.0 1000.0 900.0

30

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Florida & Metro Forecast / October 2017

FLORIDA CHARTS

Florida Real Gross State Product (Percent Change Year Ago)

10% 5% 0% -5% -10%

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Florida State & Local Government Employment 1020.0

(Thousands)

1000.0 980.0 960.0 940.0 920.0 900.0

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Florida Trade, Transportation & Utilities Employment 1800.0

(Thousands)

1700.0 1600.0 1500.0 1400.0

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

31

FLORIDA CHARTS

Florida Unemployment Rate (Percent)

14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Unemployment Rate

Florida Population (Thousands)

23000.0 22000.0 21000.0 20000.0 19000.0 18000.0 17000.0 16000.0

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Florida Employment (Thousands)

9500.0 9000.0 8500.0 8000.0 7500.0 7000.0

32

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Wage & Salary Employment

Florida & Metro Forecast / October 2017

FLORIDA NEWS SUMMARIES

Florida consumer confidence rebounds after 2 months of decline • According to the University of Florida’s latest consumer survey, consumer confidence is back on the rise after two months of decline.

• Floridians’ perceptions of their personal financial situation now compared to a year ago were the most improved: up 6.4 points. Also notable is consumers’ expectations for their finances a year from now, a metric which rose 3.5 points.

• While Floridians may be skeptical of the short-term health of the U.S. economy (the index for expectations for a year from now dropped 1.8 points), expectations for the economy over the next five years increased 0.8 points.

Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, July 7, 2017 After Irma: Gas supply has been running on fumes • A slew of logistical concerns are causing problems with the delivery of gasoline; however, the largest of these concerns is demand.

• James Miller, communications director for the Florida Petroleum Marketers and Convenience Store Association said, “You just can’t get it to people who are using it so fast. The fuel is coming; you just can’t keep up with demand.”

• “Prices are not rising due to the storm, and Florida government has said it will not tolerate price gouging”, DeHaan said.

Source: Ocala Star Banner, September 13, 2017 Florida manufacturing report shows slight improvements • Florida’s marks all either held steady or improved slightly in the latest annual Manufacturing and Logistics Report Card released by Conexus Indiana.

• Lake Ray, president of the First Coast Manufacturers Association, says the report shows that Florida has work to do to attract new manufacturers to the state.

• Florida scored D’s in the Manufacturing Industry Health and Global Reach categories, but balanced them out with B’s in Worker Benefit Costs, Expected Fiscal Liability Gap, and Sector Diversification.

Source: South Florida Business Journal, July 27, 2017 Florida sets all-time tourism record in first half of 2017 • The first six months of the year brought with them a 4.1 percent increase in Florida tourism since the same period last year, setting another new record for any six months in the state’s history.

• Florida welcomed 60.7 million visitors, including 53.2 million domestic visitors, 2.2 million Canadian visitors, and 5.3 million overseas visitors.

• Florida’s tourism industry carries 1.4 million jobs and saw $108.8 billion in direct tourism spending in 2015.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, August 15, 2017 South Florida home sellers doing well, but West Coast markets still enjoy biggest returns • Although South Florida home sellers have well outpaced the national average, netting an average 37 percent return, Oakland, California has seen the nation’s top returns, with the average seller taking in 78 percent of what they paid.

• Western cities dominated the list of hottest residential real estate markets in the U.S., with Denver, Los Angeles, Sacramento, and Seattle all putting up returns between 50 and 60 percent.

• However, Florida home sellers are still in a good place, as the national average sales gain stands at 24 percent.

Source: Sun-Sentinel, September 15, 2017 Florida regulators, ratings agency begin tallying Irma’s toll • Based on early Florida Office of Insurance Regulation claims data, insured losses are nearing $2 billion as a result of Hurricane Irma. That number is expected to rise as claims continue to pour in.

• In a different report, Fitch Ratings estimates insured losses for the insurance industry from Irma will range from $25 billion to $50 billion.

• Fitch Ratings reports that this figure is less than originally feared and that most Florida property insurers won’t see losses that will exceed the limits of their catastrophic reinsurance programs.

• Polk County has seen the most claims so far with over 10,000.

Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, September 18, 2017 For those in the service sector, Hurricane Irma hits especially hard: Expense and no pay • In addition to the damage Hurricane Irma inflicted on property across Florida, it’s worth noting the toll the hurricane has taken on service-sector workers.

• Florida’s service industry includes some 1.2 million workers, many of whom were out of a paycheck when the hurricane shut down businesses across the state. No Florida laws require that hourly non-exempt workers be paid during disasters like Irma, leaving many workers wondering how they would get by without a week’s pay.

• Many will turn to FEMA’s Disaster Unemployment Assistance, which shells out as much as regular unemployment benefits.

Source: Florida Today, September 14, 2017

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

33

D E LT O N A – D AY T O N A B E A C H – O R M O N D B E A C H

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Deltona–Daytona–Ormond Beach MSA is comprised of Volusia and Flagler Counties. It is located on the east coast of Florida and is notable for special events that occur throughout the year such as Bike Week. It is home to NASCAR headquarters and the Daytona International Speedway which hosts popular races such as the Daytona 500.

The Deltona–Daytona–Ormond Beach Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show low levels of growth in most of the economic indicators measured in this forecast relative to the other MSAs studied.

Personal income is expected to average 5.5 percent growth, while the real per capita income level will average $36,900. The average annual wage will be the second lowest of the studied areas at $45,200. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.3 percent.

Population growth will average 1.6 percent. Gross Metro Product will be at an average level of 16,565.39 million dollars.

The employment growth rate is expected to average 1.8 percent each year. Unemployment will average 4.8 percent.

The Deltona MSA will experience the most growth in the Construction and Mining sector, with an average growth rate of 6.9 percent annually. The Professional and Business Services sector will see the second highest average growth in the Deltona MSA at 4.5 percent annually. The Federal Government and Financial sectors follow with an average annual growth rate of 3.6 percent and 2.1 percent, respectively. The Leisure sector is expected to experience a decline, with a growth rate of -0.1 percent.

QUICK FACTS: •

Volusia County population estimate of 500,800 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

•

Flagler County population estimate of 99,956 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

•

Civilian labor force of 298,284 in August 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

•

An unemployment rate of 4.4% as of August 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 13,135 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database).

TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: •

Volusia County Schools – 7,503

•

Halifax Health – 4,709

•

Florida Hospital Volusia-Flagler Market – 3,256

•

County of Volusia – 3,341

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES

•

Daytona State College – 1,568

ISC casts eye on long-term growth

•

Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University – 1,423

•

Florida Health Care Plans, Inc. – 916

•

Frontier Communications – 800

•

Department of Transportation – 700

•

Bert Fish Medical Center – 700

Source: Volusia County Department of Economic Development and Enterprise Florida

• International Speedway Corp. experienced a decline in revenues and net income during the second quarter of 2017, resulting in $165.3 million in revenues and $13.2 million in net income. The second quarter’s revenue was within one percent of that of the second quarter of 2016.

• Greg Motto, ISC Chief Financial Officer, believes the retirement of noteworthy NASCAR drivers may have influenced admission revenue. This drop coincided with an increase in revenue due to corporate partnerships and broadcast fees.

• ISC is currently working on redeveloping the Volusia Point shopping center, soon to be renamed The Shoppes, neighboring the Daytona Speedway.

Total costs will be about $12 million and should be completed near the end of 2018.

Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, July 3, 2017

34

Florida & Metro Forecast / October 2017

D E LT O N A – D AY T O N A B E A C H – O R M O N D B E A C H

Flagler tourism board OKs $115K in grant requests • The Flagler tourism board approved 35 grant requests for events meant to take place no earlier than October at their meeting on July 19. The grant requests totaled $115,500.

• All 18 requests made in the “regional drive market” category were approved, although approved funding for the category was less than requested funds for all grants. Two of the grants are tentative, and any unused funds from other events will be given to the two underfunded events if they do take place.

• More than half of the grants made were $2,500 or less. Larger approved grants include $18,000 for two events to be hosted by Team Florida Lacrosse, $20,000 for two events hosted by Ethos Sports Management, and $7,000 for two events hosted by Flagler Broadcasting.

Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, July 19, 2017 ‘Love at first sight: New tourism ad agency ready to pitch for Daytona Beach area • The Brandon Agency, headquartered in South Carolina, has a two-year contract starting October 1 to work with Daytona Beach Area Convention & Visitors Bureau on new marketing campaigns.

• The Brandon Agency was chosen due to their emphasis on bringing new visitors to the area as well as their plan to focus on building more of an online presence for the Daytona Beach area through social media.

• Scott Brandon, CEO of The Brandon Agency, stated, “I think Daytona is at a real tipping point forward. Our job is to help drive more visitation and eventually higher average daily room rates and revenue per available room.”

Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, August 5, 2017 Jobless rate drops again in Volusia-Flagler • The Volusia-Flagler labor force has increased in July compared to the same time last year, with 6,000 new jobs created in July 2017.

• Volusia County’s unemployment rate rests in the middle of the rankings among Florida’s counties as the 32nd highest at 4.5%. This is a decrease of 0.8% compared to July of last year.

• Flagler County ranks higher than Volusia County, holding the 21st highest unemployment rate among all Florida counties with 4.8%. This rate is 0.9% lower than the rate in July 2016.

Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, August 18, 2017 Hotel bed-taxes rise in July • Bed taxes have been on the rise in Volusia County, with an increase of 3.24% in July when compared to July of last year.

• A total of $2,629,193 was collected in bed taxes in the month of July. For the fiscal year (starting on October 1 of 2016), bed taxes have totaled $18,716,907 so far. Both of these numbers are an increase compared to last year. Bed taxes in July 2016 equaled $2,546,796, while bed taxes for the same ten-month time period in the last fiscal year totaled $18,385,503.

• These bed taxes are used to fund the Ocean Center convention complex and the tourism ad authorities for three areas: Daytona Beach/ Halifax, Southeast Volusia, and West Volusia.

Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, September 18, 2017 Volusia restaurants feel Hurricane Irma’s bite • Although Hurricane Matthew inflicted much more damage to Volusia restaurants last year in comparison to Hurricane Irma, many are still seeing a drop in customers.

• According to the Volusia County appraiser’s office, area restaurants have seen a total of $4,323,053 in damages due to Hurricane Irma.

• This may be due to a drop in local tourism as well as locals spending their money on repairs instead of going out to restaurants. Some eateries, such as the Starlight Diner, have seen as much as a 30 percent drop in their revenue compared to September of last year.

Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, September 28, 2017 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

35

D E LT O N A – D AY T O N A B E A C H – O R M O N D B E A C H Deltona - Daytona Beach - Ormond Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

(Percent)

35000.0

36

(Millions 2009 $)

25000.0 20000.0 15000.0

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 FL Unemployment Rate Deltona Unemployment Rate

10000.0

(Thousands)

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Gross Metro Product

Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Personal Income

Deltona-Daytona Beach Payroll Employment 280.0 260.0 240.0 220.0 200.0 180.0 160.0 140.0

1.4

30000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

1.2

Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Gross Metro Product

Florida & Deltona-Daytona Beach Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

1.0

10.0%

(Percent Change Year Ago)

5.0% 0.0% -5.0% 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Deltona Payroll Employment

Florida & Metro Forecast / October 2017

-10.0%

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Personal Income

D E LT O N A – D AY T O N A B E A C H – O R M O N D B E A C H

Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL October 2017 Irma 2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

21.0 2.8 6.6 14.4 20.0 1.0 35.2 33.6 37.3 2.9

21.4 1.7 6.7 14.7 20.1 0.3 35.5 33.3 37.6 0.6

22.5 5.4 7.1 15.4 20.8 3.7 36.8 34.0 38.6 2.7

23.8 5.7 7.6 16.3 22.0 5.4 38.1 35.1 39.9 3.3

24.9 4.7 8.1 16.8 22.7 3.6 39.0 35.6 40.9 2.6

25.8 3.4 8.4 17.4 23.1 1.8 39.6 35.6 41.4 1.3

27.0 4.8 8.8 18.2 23.9 3.2 40.9 36.2 42.8 3.4

29.0 7.2 9.4 19.6 25.1 5.2 43.2 37.5 44.7 4.3

30.9 6.7 9.9 21.0 26.3 4.5 45.4 38.5 46.6 4.2

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 175.2 177.9 182.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.0 1.5 2.5 Manufacturing 9.3 9.8 10.5 2.7 5.8 6.3 Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing 165.9 168.0 171.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.9 1.3 2.3 Construction & Mining 8.5 9.3 10.1 3.3 9.8 8.7 Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities 33.8 33.7 34.5 0.9 -0.2 2.4 Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade 4.9 4.6 4.5 Retail Trade 26.8 27.0 27.7 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 2.1 2.2 2.3 Information 2.9 2.8 2.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.7 -5.2 -5.1 Financial Activities 8.4 8.5 8.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.2 1.2 -0.8 Prof & Business Services 18.5 19.4 20.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.8 4.6 4.0 Educ & Health Services 34.9 35.6 36.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.5 1.9 2.1 Leisure & Hospitality 25.9 26.6 27.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.0 2.5 4.9 Other Services 8.3 8.3 8.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.1 -0.1 0.3 Federal Government 1.3 1.3 1.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -8.2 -1.9 2.0 State & Local Government 23.2 22.5 22.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.3 -3.0 -1.8

188.3 3.3 10.9 4.2 177.4 3.2 11.2 10.2 35.9 3.9 4.8 28.7 2.4 2.6 -1.9 8.6 2.3 21.0 4.3 37.0 1.8 29.3 5.1 8.4 1.0 1.3 1.2 22.1 -0.1

197.0 4.6 11.5 5.5 185.5 4.6 12.1 8.2 37.2 3.8 5.1 29.7 2.4 2.5 -1.3 8.7 1.1 23.6 12.2 38.2 3.3 30.8 5.2 8.8 4.9 1.4 3.2 22.1 0.0

200.6 1.8 11.4 -1.2 189.2 2.0 13.2 9.5 38.6 3.5 5.2 30.9 2.5 2.5 -1.2 8.7 -0.2 24.2 2.4 39.4 3.1 29.8 -3.3 9.2 4.1 1.4 6.4 22.3 0.8

205.0 2.2 11.3 -0.3 193.6 2.3 14.1 6.3 38.6 0.2 5.3 30.4 2.5 2.4 -2.1 9.0 3.6 25.5 5.4 40.1 1.8 30.6 2.6 9.4 1.9 1.5 1.5 22.5 0.9

208.7 1.8 11.5 1.3 197.2 1.9 15.0 6.9 38.7 0.2 5.4 30.2 2.5 2.5 1.3 9.3 2.8 27.3 7.3 40.4 0.7 30.5 -0.1 9.4 0.6 1.4 -2.2 22.6 0.6

211.8 1.5 11.7 2.0 200.1 1.4 15.8 4.8 38.7 -0.1 5.5 30.1 2.5 2.5 2.4 9.4 2.0 28.1 2.7 41.1 1.7 30.7 0.5 9.5 0.2 1.6 8.9 22.8 0.7

625.2 2.1 282.0 0.3 5.9 2086.5 1929.6 157.0

639.2 2.2 290.5 3.0 5.2 2717.8 2326.4 391.0

650.7 1.8 296.3 2.0 4.6 2364.5 2030.5 334.0

660.6 1.5 298.0 0.6 4.8 4534.8 3456.8 1078.0

670.9 1.6 302.8 1.6 4.8 5567.6 4110.0 1458.0

681.3 1.5 309.3 2.2 4.9 5917.2 4337.0 1580.0

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

596.7 0.7 279.5 -0.1 9.5 1010.3 993.4 17.0

602.7 1.0 279.6 0.0 8.2 1917.4 1655.4 262.0

612.3 1.6 281.2 0.6 6.9 1933.5 1763.6 170.0

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

37

D E LT O N A – D AY T O N A B E A C H – O R M O N D B E A C H

Quarterly Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL October 2017 Irma 2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

2020Q1

2020Q2

2020Q3

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

25.9 2.6 8.4 17.5 23.2 0.9

26 3.2 8.5 17.6 23.3 1.7

26.4 3.4 8.6 17.8 23.5 2

26.8 4.4 8.8 18 23.7 2.9

27.2 5.2 8.9 18.3 24 3.5

27.7 6.4 9 18.7 24.3 4.6

28.2 6.8 9.2 19 24.7 4.9

28.7 7.2 9.3 19.4 25 5.2

29.2 7.5 9.4 19.8 25.3 5.4

29.7 7.3 9.6 20.1 25.6 5.2

30.2 7.2 9.7 20.5 25.9 4.9

30.7 6.9 9.8 20.9 26.1 4.7

31.2 6.6 10 21.2 26.4 4.3

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

39.7 35.6 41.6 0.1

39.8 35.5 41.7 1.8

40.2 35.8 42.2 2.7

40.6 36 42.6 3

41.1 36.3 43 3.5

41.7 36.6 43.5 4.3

42.3 37 44 4.2

42.9 37.3 44.4 4.3

43.5 37.6 44.9 4.4

44 37.9 45.4 4.3

44.6 38.2 45.9 4.4

45.2 38.4 46.3 4.2

45.7 38.6 46.8 4.2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

200.6 0.8 11.3 -2.7

201.3 1.3 11.3 -2.3

203.2 1.2 11.3 -2.3

204.6 2.4 11.3 0.1

205.5 2.5 11.3 0.5

206.5 2.6 11.3 0.4

207.6 2.2 11.4 0.6

208.4 1.9 11.4 0.8

209 1.7 11.5 1.5

209.8 1.6 11.6 2.4

210.5 1.4 11.7 2.5

211.5 1.5 11.7 2.3

212.2 1.5 11.7 2

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

189.3 1

190.1 1.5

191.9 1.4

193.2 2.6

194.2 2.6

195.2 2.7

196.2 2.2

197 1.9

197.5 1.7

198.2 1.6

198.8 1.3

199.8 1.4

200.5 1.5

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

13.2 7.7 38.5 3

13.8 10.7 38.6 1.6

13.8 7.3 38.6 0.2

13.9 6.9 38.6 0.2

14.1 6.8 38.6 0.4

14.4 4.4 38.7 0.2

14.7 6.4 38.8 0.4

14.9 7.1 38.8 0.4

15.2 7.3 38.7 0.2

15.4 6.9 38.7 -0.1

15.5 5.7 38.7 -0.2

15.7 5.2 38.7 -0.3

15.8 4.5 38.7 0

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

5.2 30.7 2.5

5.2 30.9 2.5

5.2 30.7 2.5

5.2 30.4 2.5

5.3 30.2 2.5

5.3 30.2 2.5

5.3 30.3 2.5

5.4 30.2 2.5

5.4 30.1 2.5

5.4 30 2.5

5.4 30.1 2.5

5.5 30.1 2.5

5.5 30.1 2.5

Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

2.5 -0.6 8.7 -0.8

2.5 0.4 8.6 -1.2

2.4 -2.2 8.8 0.5

2.4 -2.7 9 3.3

2.5 -2.2 9.1 4.9

2.5 -1.2 9.1 5.9

2.5 1.7 9.2 4

2.5 2 9.2 2.6

2.5 0.7 9.3 2.3

2.5 0.9 9.3 2.2

2.5 1.8 9.4 2.1

2.5 2.4 9.4 2

2.5 2.7 9.5 2

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

24.2 0 39.6 2.4 29.8 -4.7

24.2 0.3 39.8 3.6 29.3 -3.7

24.7 2.3 39.9 1.9 30.3 -0.2

25.3 4.4 40 3 30.6 2.9

25.7 6.4 40.2 1.5 30.7 3.1

26.2 8.3 40.2 1 30.7 4.7

26.8 8.9 40.2 0.7 30.6 1.2

27.3 7.9 40.3 0.7 30.5 -0.2

27.5 7 40.4 0.5 30.5 -0.7

27.7 5.7 40.5 0.8 30.5 -0.6

27.8 3.5 40.7 1.2 30.6 -0.2

27.9 2.5 40.9 1.6 30.6 0.3

28.2 2.4 41.2 2 30.7 0.9

9.2 3.5 1.5 5.8

9.3 3.3 1.5 9

9.4 2.1 1.5 7.6

9.4 2.2 1.5 3.4

9.4 2.1 1.4 -1

9.4 1.4 1.4 -3.6

9.4 1 1.4 -7.5

9.4 0.7 1.4 -3.8

9.4 0.5 1.4 0

9.4 0.2 1.5 2.6

9.5 0.2 1.4 4.1

9.5 0.1 1.8 24.2

9.5 0.1 1.6 9.6

22.3 0.4

22.4 1.1

22.5 0.6

22.5 1.4

22.5 0.9

22.5 0.6

22.5 0.4

22.6 0.5

22.6 0.7

22.7 0.8

22.7 0.9

22.8 0.8

22.8 0.7

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

652.1 1.7

654.6 1.6

656.8 1.5

659.3 1.5

661.9 1.5

664.5 1.5

667.1 1.6

669.6 1.6

672.2 1.6

674.8 1.6

677.4 1.5

680 1.5

682.6 1.5

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%)

295.7 1.3 4.4

296.2 0.8 4.4

296.8 0 4.6

297.5 0.3 4.8

298.3 0.9 4.9

299.4 1.1 4.8

300.6 1.3 4.7

301.9 1.5 4.8

303.5 1.7 4.8

305.1 1.9 4.9

306.9 2.1 4.9

308.6 2.2 4.8

310.2 2.2 4.8

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

2040 1913 127

2887 2460 427

3819 3023 796

4402 3328 1074

4854 3670 1184

5065 3807 1258

5296 3942 1354

5575 4117 1458

5662 4164 1499

5737 4218 1520

5830 4258 1572

5882 4315 1567

5974 4381 1593

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

38

Florida & Metro Forecast / October 2017

GAINESVILLE

PROFILES The Gainesville MSA is comprised of Alachua and Gilchrist Counties and is located in the centralnorth portion of the state. This Metro is home to the University of Florida and the Florida Museum of Natural History, Florida’s official natural history museum.

QUICK FACTS: •

Metro population estimate of 270,382 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

•

Alachua County population estimate of 253,451 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

•

Gilchrist County population estimate of 16,931 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

•

Civilian labor force of 141,122 in August 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

•

An unemployment rate of 3.8% as of August 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 5,307 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database).

TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: •

University of Florida – 27,567

•

UF Health Shands System – 12,705

•

Veterans Affairs Medical Center – 6,127

•

Alachua County School Board – 3,904

•

City of Gainesville – 2,072

•

North Florida Regional Medical Center – 2,000

•

Gator Dining Services – 1,200

•

Nationwide Insurance Company – 960

•

Alachua County – 809

•

Publix Supermarkets – 780

Source: Gainsville Area Chamber of Commerce

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES The Gainesville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show low levels of growth in most of the economic indicators relative to the other MSAs studied. Personal income growth will see an average of 5.5 percent growth, the second lowest of the studied MSAs. Real per capita income level is expected to average $39,400. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.3 percent, while the average annual wage level will be at $49,600. Population growth will be the third lowest of the studied areas at 0.9 percent annually. Gross Metro Product will be the second lowest of the studied MSAs at an average level of 11,612.77 million dollars.

Gainesville will see an average employment growth rate of 1.7 percent annually, the third lowest growth of the MSAs. The Gainesville MSA will, however, maintain the second lowest average unemployment rate of the MSAs studied, at 3.7 percent.

The fastest growing sector in the area will be the Construction and Mining sector, with an average growth rate of 5.4 percent annually. This is followed by the Professional and Business Services sector with an average annual growth rate of 5.0 percent. The Federal Government sector will experience a decline, with an annual growth rate of -0.3 percent.

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES McGurns sell Sun Center, other properties for $22M • Ken and Linda McGurn sold eight of their properties including the Sun Center, a downtown parking garage, 32 units in Palm Condominiums, and the DOC building for $22.2 million in a package deal.

• Ken and Linda have been huge developers and very involved in revitalizing downtown Gainesville for almost 40 years. Over the past two years, they have been selling some of their developments to Mordechai Boaziz of Maverick Investments.

• They are ready to pass on their torch to new developers and bring in some “new energy” to downtown Gainesville.

Source: Gainesville Sun, August 2, 2017 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

39

GAINESVILLE

Programs help local businesses increase exports • Endoscopy Replacement Parts Inc. (ERPI) is one of the local growing businesses from increasing its exports. They are taking advantage of programs offered by the Enterprise Florida International Trade Development and Jacksonville-based U.S. Commerce Service’s Export Assistance Center programs, which provide free exporting expertise.

• ERPI has increased its export sales by 50 percent by using these programs. They have added five employees and generated more than $5 million in revenue annually since completing the Gold Key program.

• ERPI is based out of Newberry and “makes products for repairing rigid and flexible endoscopes, which are medical instruments used to examine the interior of a hollow organ or body cavity.”

Source: Gainesville Sun, July 24, 2017 Mixed-use housing development 23 West underway • Land northwest of Gainesville has been cleared for a mixed-use housing development. The development, 23 West, will consist of 174 apartments, 31,000 square feet of office space, and about 10,000 square feet of retail space.

• First Magnitude Brewing Company released a new beer called Migration Märzen to support butterfly conservation with the Florida Museum.

They will celebrate Oktoberfest with Germanstyle beers all day, Stubbies Pop-up Sausages, and live music.

• There will be about 10 food vendors at the food truck rally starting at 5 p.m. and Bento will be holding a 15-day promotion to celebrate its 15th anniversary starting September 15.

Source: Gainesville Sun, September 15, 2017 Ironwood Golf Course to reopen soon • Gainesville’s Ironwood Golf Course will open this month after improvements have been made to the fairway and clubhouse. No taxpayer money was used for the projects.

• The total renovation was $225,000 and the course’s maintenance contractor paid for the projects.

• Although weather caused some setbacks, the project remained on budget and the course is expected to open in mid-September.

Source: Gainesville Sun, September 1, 2017 Alachua, neighboring counties eligible for aid

• The clubhouse at 23 West will include a pool, fitness center, and coffee bar, while each apartment will have its own front porch and garage. The developers are expecting singleparent families or young tenants, so this new style of design should appeal to them.

• FEMA’s Public Assistance Program declared Alachua and several neighboring counties eligible for additional disaster assistance. This aid will supplement state and local recovery efforts for places that sustained damage from Hurricane Irma.

• Gainesville-based Contemporary Management Concepts will manage the property and the project should take about a year to complete.

Source: Gainesville Sun, August 30, 2017

• Assistance may cover emergency protective measures, debris removal, and the repair or rebuilding of public facilities like bridges, public utilities, parks and recreational facilities, roads, and water control facilities.

Get ready for Oktoberfest in Gainesville

• Other eligible counties are Dixie, Gilchrist, Lafayette, Levy, Bradford, and Marion.

• A brewing company, food truck rally, and 15 Days of Bento will all celebrate Oktoberfest in Gainesville on September 23 from noon to 11 p.m.

40

Florida & Metro Forecast / October 2017

Source: The Gainesville Sun, October 6, 2017

GAINESVILLE Gainesville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government

0

0.5

Florida & Gainesville Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(Percent)

1

1.5

20000.0

(Millions 2009 $)

18000.0 16000.0

8.0%

14000.0

6.0%

12000.0

4.0%

10000.0

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 FL Unemployment Rate Gainesville Unemployment Rate

8000.0

(Thousands)

160.0

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Gross Metro Product

Gainesville Real Personal Income

Gainesville Payroll Employment 170.0

2.5

Gainesville Real Gross Metro Product

10.0%

2.0%

2

15.0%

(Percent Change Year Ago)

10.0%

150.0

5.0% 140.0

0.0%

130.0 120.0

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Gainesville Payroll Employment

-5.0%

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Personal Income

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

41

GAINESVILLE

Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL October 2017 Irma 2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

9.7 0.5 5.4 4.3 9.3 -1.3 36.2 34.5 42.1 1.8

9.8 1.1 5.6 4.3 9.2 -0.2 36.4 34.2 43.1 2.2

10.4 6.1 5.8 4.6 9.7 4.5 38.2 35.4 44.3 2.9

11.0 5.2 6.1 4.9 10.1 4.9 39.7 36.6 45.2 2.0

11.5 4.6 6.5 5.0 10.5 3.5 40.9 37.3 46.2 2.3

11.9 3.9 6.8 5.2 10.7 2.3 42.0 37.7 46.9 1.3

12.5 4.9 7.1 5.4 11.1 3.3 43.6 38.6 48.5 3.5

13.4 6.7 7.5 5.9 11.6 4.6 46.2 40.1 50.5 4.1

14.2 6.3 7.9 6.4 12.1 4.1 48.8 41.4 52.5 4.1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 128.0 128.9 131.1 1.1 0.7 1.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.4 4.4 4.3 Manufacturing 0.3 0.2 -3.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 123.6 124.5 126.9 Nonmanufacturing 1.1 0.7 1.9 Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining 4.3 4.4 4.4 10.5 2.6 0.6 Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities 18.1 18.3 18.8 0.6 0.9 2.6 Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade 2.5 2.7 2.8 Retail Trade 13.3 13.2 13.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information 1.5 1.5 1.5 -2.9 1.2 0.5 Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities 6.3 6.2 6.3 3.6 -2.0 0.8 Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services 11.3 11.4 12.3 4.5 1.3 8.2 Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services 22.8 23.1 23.7 2.2 1.1 2.7 Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality 13.4 13.8 13.8 0.7 2.9 0.3 Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services 4.1 4.1 4.2 -1.6 0.4 3.7 Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government 4.4 4.4 4.5 -1.2 0.8 1.6 Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government 37.5 37.4 37.4 -0.8 -0.3 0.0 Pct Chg Year Ago

134.9 2.9 4.5 5.1 130.4 2.8 4.7 7.9 19.4 3.3 2.8 13.8 2.8 1.5 4.5 6.4 2.0 12.9 4.8 24.2 1.8 14.6 5.3 4.5 5.9 4.6 2.4 37.6 0.7

139.3 3.2 4.7 5.6 134.6 3.2 5.1 7.4 20.3 4.5 2.8 14.3 3.2 1.5 -1.6 6.5 1.4 13.8 6.8 24.8 2.4 15.2 4.1 4.6 1.9 4.7 2.0 38.2 1.6

143.6 3.1 4.8 1.3 138.9 3.2 5.5 7.1 21.4 5.3 3.0 15.0 3.4 1.5 0.8 6.7 3.2 14.6 5.5 25.6 3.3 15.5 1.9 4.8 4.4 4.7 0.9 38.7 1.4

146.1 1.7 4.8 0.3 141.3 1.8 5.7 4.7 21.4 0.1 3.0 14.7 3.4 1.5 -2.7 6.9 3.7 15.3 5.4 25.8 1.0 16.1 4.0 4.9 3.5 4.7 -1.3 38.9 0.5

147.7 1.1 4.9 1.4 142.8 1.1 6.0 5.8 21.3 -0.3 3.1 14.5 3.5 1.5 0.7 7.1 2.1 16.4 6.9 25.9 0.1 16.0 -0.7 5.0 0.6 4.5 -2.5 39.1 0.5

148.9 0.9 5.0 2.2 144.0 0.8 6.3 3.9 21.2 -0.6 3.1 14.4 3.4 1.5 1.4 7.2 1.3 16.8 2.3 26.1 1.0 16.0 0.1 5.0 0.2 4.6 1.6 39.3 0.5

277.1 1.4 135.9 -0.2 4.6 1075.7 644.5 431.0

281.1 1.4 139.0 2.3 4.3 1071.7 641.0 431.0

284.5 1.2 143.5 3.3 3.8 942.7 550.7 392.0

287.1 0.9 145.8 1.6 3.8 1304.6 742.9 562.0

289.3 0.7 148.7 2.0 3.6 1391.6 798.4 593.0

291.2 0.7 151.5 1.9 3.6 1464.0 830.4 634.0

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

42

268.6 0.6 136.7 0.6 6.8 576.5 400.2 176.0

Florida & Metro Forecast / October 2017

270.1 0.6 136.1 -0.5 5.8 758.3 548.4 210.0

273.3 1.2 136.1 0.1 5.3 744.6 525.7 219.0

GAINESVILLE

Quarterly Outlook for Gainesville, FL October 2017 Irma 2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

2020Q1

2020Q2

2020Q3

12 3 6.8 5.2

12.1 3.7 6.8 5.2

12.3 3.7 7 5.3

12.4 4.3 7.1 5.4

12.6 5.1 7.2 5.5

12.8 6.4 7.3 5.6

13.1 6.5 7.3 5.7

13.3 6.7 7.4 5.8

13.5 6.9 7.5 6

13.7 6.7 7.6 6.1

13.9 6.5 7.7 6.2

14.1 6.6 7.8 6.3

14.3 6.2 7.9 6.4

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

10.8 1.4

10.8 2.3

10.9 2.3

11 2.8

11.1 3.4

11.3 4.6

11.4 4.5

11.5 4.7

11.7 4.8

11.8 4.6

11.9 4.3

12 4.3

12.1 4

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

42.1 37.7

42.2 37.7

42.8 38.1

43.3 38.4

43.9 38.7

44.5 39.1

45.2 39.5

45.9 39.9

46.6 40.3

47.2 40.6

47.9 41

48.5 41.3

49.1 41.6

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

47 0.1

47.3 2.2

47.7 2.9

48.2 3.1

48.7 3.6

49.2 4.2

49.7 4.1

50.2 4.1

50.7 4.1

51.2 4.1

51.7 4.1

52.2 4

52.8 4.1

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

143.9 2.8

144 2.2

145.3 1.5

146 1.6

146.4 1.7

146.8 2

147.3 1.4

147.6 1.1

147.8 1

148.1 0.9

148.2 0.6

149.1 1

149.2 1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

4.8 -0.4 139.1 3 5.4 5.6

4.8 -0.2 139.2 2.3 5.6 6.3

4.8 -0.3 140.5 1.6 5.6 4.9

4.8 0.4 141.2 1.7 5.7 4.7

4.8 0.6 141.6 1.8 5.7 5.5

4.8 0.5 142 2 5.8 3.7

4.8 0.7 142.5 1.4 5.9 5.4

4.8 0.9 142.7 1.1 6 5.9

4.9 1.6 142.9 0.9 6.1 6.1

4.9 2.4 143.2 0.8 6.1 5.7

4.9 2.6 143.3 0.6 6.2 4.6

5 2.4 144.1 1 6.3 4.1

5 2.1 144.2 0.9 6.3 3.7

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago

21.4 4.8 3 14.9 3.4 1.5 0.2

21.5 4.4 3 15 3.4 1.5 1

21.4 0.8 3 14.9 3.4 1.5 -4.2

21.4 -0.1 3 14.7 3.4 1.5 -3

21.4 -0.1 3 14.6 3.4 1.5 -2.1

21.4 -0.3 3.1 14.6 3.5 1.5 -1.4

21.4 -0.2 3.1 14.6 3.5 1.5 1.1

21.4 -0.2 3.1 14.6 3.5 1.5 1.3

21.3 -0.3 3.1 14.5 3.5 1.5 0.1

21.3 -0.6 3.1 14.4 3.5 1.5 0.2

21.2 -0.7 3.1 14.4 3.4 1.5 0.9

21.2 -0.8 3.1 14.4 3.4 1.5 1.4

21.2 -0.6 3.1 14.4 3.4 1.5 1.7

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

6.7 2.5 14.6 4.4

6.7 1.2 14.6 3.5

6.8 2.6 14.9 3.4

6.9 3.7 15.2 4.1

7 3.9 15.5 6.1

7 4.5 15.8 7.8

7 3.1 16.1 8.3

7.1 2 16.4 7.4

7.1 1.7 16.5 6.5

7.1 1.5 16.6 5.3

7.1 1.4 16.6 3.1

7.2 1.2 16.7 2.1

7.2 1.3 16.8 2

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

25.6 3.2

25.8 3.4

25.8 1.6

25.8 1.3

25.9 0.8

25.9 0.4

25.8 0.2

25.9 0.1

25.9 0

25.9 0.2

26 0.6

26.1 0.9

26.2 1.2

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

15.6 3.2 4.8 5 4.7 0.6 38.7 1.1

15.1 -1.7 4.9 4 4.8 0.8 38.8 1.2

15.9 2.2 4.9 5.5 4.8 1.1 38.9 0.3

16.1 3.1 4.9 4.2 4.7 -0.2 38.9 0.8

16.2 3.8 4.9 2.9 4.6 -2.3 38.9 0.6

16.1 7 4.9 1.7 4.6 -3.7 39 0.5

16.1 1.1 5 1 4.6 -3.5 39 0.3

16 -0.9 5 0.7 4.6 -2.8 39.1 0.5

15.9 -1.6 5 0.5 4.5 -2 39.2 0.6

15.9 -1.4 5 0.3 4.5 -1.9 39.3 0.7

15.9 -0.8 5 0.3 4.4 -5 39.3 0.7

16 -0.1 5 0.2 5 9.2 39.3 0.6

16 0.6 5 0.2 4.7 3.6 39.3 0.4

285 1.2

285.7 1.1

286.3 1

286.9 0.9

287.4 0.9

288 0.8

288.5 0.8

289 0.8

289.5 0.7

290 0.7

290.5 0.7

291 0.7

291.4 0.7

143.5 2.9

144.1 2.6

144.8 1.3

145.5 1.5

146.1 1.9

146.9 1.9

147.6 1.9

148.3 2

149.1 2

149.9 2

150.6 2.1

151.3 2

151.9 1.9

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%)

3.7

3.6

3.7

3.8

3.9

3.8

3.7

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.6

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

717 520 198

890 589 301

1179 688 491

1325 728 596

1366 776 591

1349 779 569

1352 782 570

1384 796 588

1408 803 604

1423 812 611

1439 816 623

1452 826 625

1481 839 642

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

43

JACKSONVILLE

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Jacksonville MSA is comprised of Baker, Clay, Duval, Nassau and St. Johns counties. It is located on the northeast coast of Florida and is home to several major U.S. military bases, such as the Jacksonville Naval Air Station, as well as shipyards, the University of North Florida, and the Jacksonville International Airport.

The Jacksonville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to see moderate growth in most of the economic indicators, relative to the other MSAs studied. Personal income will see an average growth rate of 6.3 percent. The real per capita income level is expected to average $43,700, the third highest of the twelve studied MSAs. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.2 percent, while the average annual wage level is expected to be $56,100, the second highest of the twelve studied MSAs. Population growth will be moderate at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent.

Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 71,164.78 million dollars.

Employment growth is expected to average 2.7 percent annually. Unemployment will average 4.1 percent in the MSA. The fastest growing sector in the Jacksonville MSA will be Professional and Business Services, which will see an average annual growth rate of 6.0 percent.

Following that sector is the Construction and Mining sector, with an average annual growth rate of 5.0 percent, and then the Financial and Other Services sectors, with average growth rates of 3.0 and 2.8 percent, respectively. The Federal Government sector is expected to decline, with average annual growth rate of -0.1 percent.

QUICK FACTS:

•

Metro population estimate of 1,394,624 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

•

Baker County population estimate of 27,013 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

•

Clay County population estimate of 196,399 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

•

Duval County population estimate of 885,855 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

•

Nassau County population estimate of 75,710 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

•

St. Johns County population estimate of 209,647 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

•

Civilian labor force of 762,465 in August 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

•

An unemployment rate of 4.1% as of August 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 31,461 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database).

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES

TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

•

Naval Air Station Jacksonville – 19,618

•

Duval County Public Schools – 14,480

•

Naval Station Mayport – 13,444

•

Baptist Health Systems – 10,500

•

Bank of America Merrill Lynch – 8,000

•

Florida Blue – 6,700

•

Mayo Clinic – 6,000

•

Southeastern Grocers – 5,700

•

Citi – 4,000

•

JP Morgan Chase – 3,900

Source: JAXUSA Partnership

Made in Jax: More than a beach-minded company • The Admiral’s Daughters beach apparel business, an Atlantic Beach-based startup, isn’t just focused on nautical-themed apparel, but women in military families.

• The Admiral’s Daughters brand targets mostly teenage girls to women, while also focusing on 22 military bases in Florida.

• The company donates about $1 of every unit sold to the Navy Safe Harbor Foundation, along with other military charities and environmental causes. The mostly-online company is hoping to continue to grow and have merchandise in stores in the Jacksonville area.

Source: The Florida Times Union, September 16, 2017

44

Florida & Metro Forecast / October 2017

JACKSONVILLE

Jacksonville Yellow Pages office to close, laying off 105 • DexYP, a phone book publishing marketing company, will be closing its Jacksonville office and laying off all 105 employees.

• The number of DexYP clients has been on the decline and the company is going to focus on optimizing its sales force.

• The company has been around since Dex Media, a Dallas-based phone book publisher, acquired YP and YP.com in June for $300 million. It is unknown whether other company offices will also be closing.

Source: The Florida Times Union, August 1, 2017 Jacksonville’s Crowley awarded transportation contract after contested bid with DOD • The U.S. Department of Defense awarded Jacksonville-based Crowley Logistics Inc. a $2.3 billion contract for transportation projects.

• The contract is with Transportation Command, a division of the DOD that provides transportation services “that will move various cargo with material suppliers at 41 major depots around the continental U.S.” • The contract is a two-year service from Crowley with an option for an additional five years.

Source: The Florida Times Union, July 26, 2017 Jacksonville’s One Spark festival has been postponed, again, now set for April • Jacksonville’s One Spark entrepreneurial festival set for October 5-7 has been rescheduled for April 6-7 at EverBank Field.

One Spark organizers teamed with the business promotions wing of the Jacksonville Jaguars and agreed to hold the event at the field.

• The festival showcases “creator” participants who display their wares at booths and is expected to have about 150 applicants.

• The festival started in 2013 and has changed venues and size over the years, with a peak attendance of 300,000 people in April 2015.

Wanting to reduce the size, local businessman, developer, and One Spark chairman Peter Rummell disclosed he would personally fund $3.5 million of the total $6 million in costs to put on the festival.

Source: The Florida Times Union, September 18, 2017 Sunday Notebook: New home communities coming in town, too • A little more than 11 acres in the Southside Quarter development in St. Johns County has been bought by David Weekley Homes for $6,050,000.

There are plans to build 135 attached and detached single-family homes in the space.

• The full Southside Quarter project is being developed by Hines, a Houston company that has developed other projects in the area as well. A 306-unit apartment complex will begin construction shortly, although most of the site will be used for retail and office space.

• Other development is also taking place in the Jacksonville region, including a new subdivision in Arlington and Blaze Pizza, Texas de Brazil, and 2nd & Charles in the Town Center.

Source: The Florida Times Union, July 16, 2017 Work to repair Irma’s damage will take weeks, months, years • Fencing, roofing and trees services, and construction companies’ phones have been ringing off the hook in the aftermath of Hurricane Irma.

Silverman Fence is booking jobs eight weeks out, and that’s just for accepted jobs thus far. That number will continue to grow in the next few months with the jobs that keep coming in.

• C&H Marine Construction had eight months of dock work still from Hurricane Matthew and now owner, Mark Stanley, is looking at over two years’ worth of work after Irma’s damage.

• Jacksonville Screen owner Phillip Hamm has doubled his crew and is still booked two months in advance, along with many other local companies.

Source: Florida Times Union, October 5, 2017

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

45

JACKSONVILLE Jacksonville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

(Percent)

160000.0

10.0%

140000.0

8.0%

120000.0

1.4

1.6

(Millions 2009 $)

100000.0

6.0%

80000.0

4.0% 2.0%

1.2

Jacksonville Real Gross Metro Product

Florida & Jacksonville Unemployment Rate 12.0%

1

60000.0

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 FL Unemployment Rate Jacksonville Unemployment Rate

40000.0

Jacksonville Real Personal Income

Jacksonville Payroll Employment 1000.0

(Thousands)

900.0

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Gross Metro Product

10.0%

(Percent Change Year Ago)

5.0%

800.0 0.0%

700.0 -5.0%

600.0 500.0

46

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Jacksonville Payroll Employment

Florida & Metro Forecast / October 2017

-10.0%

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Personal Income

JACKSONVILLE

Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL October 2017 Irma 2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

57.3 4.1 29.8 27.5 54.6 2.3 41.5 39.5 48.7 3.3

57.9 1.0 30.5 27.4 54.4 -0.3 41.4 38.9 48.9 0.3

60.8 5.0 32.1 28.7 56.2 3.3 42.7 39.5 50.2 2.8

64.1 5.5 33.8 30.3 59.1 5.1 44.1 40.7 51.1 1.7

67.3 5.0 35.7 31.6 61.4 3.9 45.4 41.4 52.4 2.5

70.1 4.2 37.3 32.8 63.0 2.5 46.4 41.7 53.1 1.5

74.3 5.9 39.7 34.6 65.7 4.3 48.3 42.7 54.8 3.2

80.1 7.8 42.4 37.7 69.4 5.7 51.3 44.5 57.0 4.0

85.8 7.1 44.9 40.9 72.8 4.8 54.2 46.0 59.3 4.0

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 594.4 607.9 624.1 1.4 2.3 2.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 27.9 27.8 28.0 Manufacturing 1.6 -0.3 0.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 566.6 580.1 596.1 Nonmanufacturing 1.4 2.4 2.8 Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining 27.8 30.2 32.7 1.1 8.5 8.2 Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities 125.4 127.8 130.7 1.1 1.9 2.3 Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade 24.7 24.7 24.0 Retail Trade 70.2 71.6 73.6 30.5 31.5 33.0 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information 9.2 9.2 9.2 -4.0 -0.6 0.7 Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities 60.0 61.5 60.9 3.5 2.4 -1.0 Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services 90.9 94.0 98.2 3.9 3.3 4.5 Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services 89.2 91.3 93.4 1.6 2.3 2.4 Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality 69.0 71.8 75.5 4.0 4.1 5.1 Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services 20.3 20.6 21.7 -5.9 1.5 5.3 Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government 17.3 17.0 16.8 -0.4 -1.5 -1.0 Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government 57.4 56.8 56.9 -3.0 -0.9 0.2 Pct Chg Year Ago

646.1 3.5 29.0 3.6 617.1 3.5 35.6 9.1 135.2 3.4 25.1 75.8 34.2 9.3 0.8 61.5 1.0 100.7 2.5 97.6 4.4 79.9 5.8 23.1 6.2 17.1 1.6 57.3 0.6

667.9 3.4 29.4 1.4 638.5 3.5 39.0 9.6 137.9 2.0 26.1 77.5 34.4 9.4 1.7 64.0 4.2 101.5 0.8 102.8 5.3 83.0 3.9 25.4 10.0 17.6 2.7 57.8 0.9

687.5 2.9 30.1 2.2 657.5 3.0 39.8 1.9 143.1 3.7 26.8 81.8 34.4 9.5 0.7 65.3 2.0 105.5 3.9 107.4 4.5 84.3 1.6 26.8 5.7 17.9 1.7 57.9 0.1

709.7 3.2 30.3 0.9 679.4 3.3 42.2 6.1 145.3 1.6 27.5 81.8 35.0 9.3 -2.2 68.6 5.0 112.8 6.9 109.6 2.1 87.7 4.0 27.7 3.1 17.6 -1.4 58.5 1.1

728.8 2.7 30.8 1.4 698.0 2.7 45.2 6.9 146.5 0.8 28.2 81.8 35.4 9.4 1.4 70.5 2.8 123.7 9.7 110.5 0.8 87.9 0.2 28.0 1.4 17.3 -2.1 59.1 0.9

742.6 1.9 31.4 2.0 711.2 1.9 47.4 5.0 147.1 0.4 28.7 82.0 35.6 9.6 2.1 71.9 2.1 128.3 3.7 112.6 1.9 88.8 1.0 28.3 0.9 17.5 1.4 59.8 1.2

1451.9 2.0 719.2 0.4 5.3 9623.5 7339.9 2284.0

1481.9 2.1 734.2 2.1 4.7 11272.9 8798.0 2475.0

1510.6 1.9 756.5 3.0 4.1 12518.7 9621.5 2897.0

1536.9 1.7 764.8 1.1 4.1 14310.6 10011.7 4299.0

1560.6 1.5 776.6 1.5 4.0 13639.6 9762.0 3878.0

1582.9 1.4 790.8 1.8 4.0 14060.0 10040.9 4019.0

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

1381.1 1.2 704.1 0.4 8.2 6417.5 4572.0 1845.0

1398.9 1.3 709.0 0.7 7.0 7258.8 6164.8 1094.0

1423.5 1.8 716.3 1.0 6.2 7519.2 6246.9 1272.0

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

47

JACKSONVILLE

Quarterly Outlook for Jacksonville, FL October 2017 Irma 2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

2020Q1

2020Q2

2020Q3

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

70.5 3.1 37.5 33 63.2 1.5

71 4.2 37.8 33.2 63.4 2.7

72.3 4.7 38.6 33.7 64.4 3.3

73.6 5.2 39.4 34.2 65.2 3.7

74.8 6.2 40 34.8 66 4.5

76.3 7.5 40.7 35.6 67 5.7

77.9 7.7 41.5 36.5 68.1 5.7

79.3 7.8 42.1 37.2 69 5.8

80.8 8 42.7 38.1 69.9 5.9

82.2 7.7 43.3 38.9 70.8 5.6

83.7 7.4 43.9 39.8 71.6 5.2

85.1 7.2 44.6 40.5 72.4 5

86.5 7 45.2 41.2 73.2 4.7

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

46.6 41.7 53.3 0.3

46.7 41.7 53.5 1.9

47.4 42.2 54 2.6

48 42.5 54.6 2.8

48.6 42.9 55.1 3.3

49.4 43.4 55.7 4

50.2 43.9 56.2 4

50.9 44.3 56.8 4

51.7 44.7 57.3 4.1

52.4 45.1 57.9 4

53.1 45.5 58.5 4

53.8 45.8 59 3.9

54.5 46.2 59.6 3.9

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

689.7 2.2 30.2 1.7

692 2.7 30.2 1.1

701 2.9 30.2 1.3

707.7 3 30.3 0.9

712.4 3.3 30.4 0.7

717.7 3.7 30.4 0.6

723.2 3.2 30.5 0.9

727.3 2.8 30.6 1

730.5 2.5 30.8 1.5

734 2.3 31 2.2

736.6 1.9 31.2 2.4

741.2 1.9 31.3 2.2

744.8 2 31.4 1.9

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

659.5 2.2

661.8 2.7

670.8 3

677.4 3

682 3.4

687.3 3.9

692.7 3.3

696.6 2.8

699.7 2.6

703 2.3

705.4 1.8

709.9 1.9

713.4 2

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

39.8 -0.4 143.8 3.3

41.3 5.4 144.6 5

41.6 5.6 144.9 3.1

41.9 8 145.2 1.4

42.4 6.6 145.4 1.1

43.1 4.4 145.9 0.8

44.1 6.1 146.2 0.9

44.8 7.1 146.5 0.9

45.5 7.5 146.5 0.7

46.2 7.1 146.6 0.5

46.8 6.1 146.8 0.4

47.2 5.4 146.9 0.3

47.7 4.7 147.1 0.4

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

27 82 34.6

27.3 82.7 34.7

27.3 82.3 34.9

27.4 81.8 35

27.6 81.5 35.1

27.8 81.6 35.2

28 81.9 35.3

28.1 81.9 35.4

28.2 81.7 35.5

28.3 81.6 35.5

28.5 81.8 35.5

28.7 81.9 35.6

28.8 82.1 35.7

9.5 0.2 65.6 1.2

9.5 -0.1 65.6 0.8

9.2 -3 67.3 3.8

9.2 -3.3 68.5 5

9.3 -1.7 69 5.2

9.4 -0.8 69.5 6

9.4 1.7 69.9 3.9

9.4 2 70.3 2.6

9.4 0.8 70.6 2.4

9.5 0.9 71.1 2.2

9.5 1.6 71.4 2.2

9.6 2 71.7 2

9.6 2.3 72.1 2.1

105.8 2.5 107.9 3.8 84.7 1.9

105.8 3.7 108.8 4.4 82.9 -2.1

108.2 3.6 109.2 3.4 86.6 2.3

111.5 5.3 109.5 2.2 87.8 3.4

114.1 7.8 109.8 1.8 88.2 4.1

117.2 10.8 110.1 1.1 88.2 6.4

120.8 11.7 110.1 0.8 88.1 1.7

123.2 10.5 110.3 0.8 87.9 0

124.8 9.3 110.6 0.7 87.7 -0.5

125.9 7.5 111.1 0.9 87.9 -0.4

126.5 4.7 111.6 1.4 88.2 0.1

127.5 3.5 112.3 1.7 88.6 0.8

128.9 3.3 112.9 2.1 89 1.5

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

26.8 4.8 17.9 0.9

27.2 4 18 1

27.5 3.6 17.9 0.8

27.6 2.9 17.7 -1.2

27.7 3.4 17.5 -2

27.8 2.4 17.4 -3.1

27.9 1.8 17.3 -3.3

28 1.5 17.3 -2.4

28.1 1.3 17.2 -1.4

28.1 1 17.2 -1.1

28.2 1 16.7 -3.4

28.3 0.9 18.3 5.9

28.3 0.8 17.9 3.9

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

57.8 -0.7

58.1 0.5

58.4 0.7

58.5 1.3

58.6 1.3

58.7 1

58.8 0.7

59 0.8

59.2 1.1

59.4 1.2

59.5 1.3

59.7 1.2

59.8 1.1

1514.1 1.9

1521.2 1.9

1527.5 1.8

1533.9 1.8

1540.2 1.7

1546.2 1.6

1552.1 1.6

1557.9 1.6

1563.5 1.5

1569 1.5

1574.6 1.4

1580.1 1.4

1585.7 1.4

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%)

757.1 2.7 3.9

759 2.5 3.9

761.3 1 4

763.4 1 4.1

765.8 1.2 4.2

768.8 1.3 4.1

771.7 1.4 4

774.7 1.5 4

778.2 1.6 4

781.7 1.7 4

785.3 1.8 4

789.2 1.9 4

792.7 1.9 4

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

11322 9413 1909

12485 9604 2880

14105 10026 4079

14660 10024 4636

14478 10090 4388

14000 9908 4092

13684 9765 3919

13616 9715 3901

13602 9749 3853

13657 9819 3837

13851 9905 3946

13961 10000 3961

14179 10118 4061

Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

48

Florida & Metro Forecast / October 2017

L A K E L A N D – W I N T E R H AV E N

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Lakeland–Winter Haven MSA is comprised only of Polk County. It is located in the westerncenter of the state and is heavily agriculturally based, especially in citrus. Lakeland is the home to Legoland Florida and is also the location of Publix Supermarket headquarters. Each year the Detroit Tigers host spring training at Joker Marchant Stadium. Lakeland is also home to Florida Polytechnic University, the newest member of the State University System.

The Lakeland–Winter Haven Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show low levels of growth in most of the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow moderately at 5.7 percent annually, while the real per capita income level will average $32,600, the lowest of the twelve MSAs. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.0 percent, and the average annual wage level is expected to be at $47,600. Population growth is expected to average 1.5 percent annually. Gross Metro Product will be at an average level of 19,497.42 million dollars.

Employment growth is expected to average 2.1 percent annually. The unemployment rate for the metro will average 4.9 percent, the second highest of the twelve forecasted MSAs. The Professional and Business Services sector is expected to be the fastest growing sector in the area, averaging 5.6 percent annual growth. This is followed by the Construction and Mining sector averaging 24.3 percent annual growth, and the Federal Government and Financial sectors, averaging 2.8 and 2.1 percent annual growth, respectively. The Information sector will experience a decline, with an average annual growth rate of -1.3 percent.

QUICK FACTS: •

Population estimate of 623,009 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

•

Civilian labor force of 292,704 in August 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

•

An unemployment rate of 4.8% as of August 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 14,190 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database).

TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: •

Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 8,200

•

Lakeland Regional Medical Center – 5,500

•

GEICO – 2,800

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES

•

City of Lakeland – 2,600

Irma destroys Bartow fishing business

•

Watson Clinic – 1,600

•

Sykes – 1,150

•

GC Services – 1,000

•

Amazon – 900

•

Saddle Creek Logistics – 900

Source: Lakeland Economic Development Council

• DB’s Bait and Tackle was heavily damaged by Hurricane Irma, along with the owner Dale Bailey’s personal home.

• Bailey plans on applying for help from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) in order to clean up his business.

However, with the money still owed on the mortgage along with clearing and rebuilding costs, Bailey is not sure if he could reopen his business in Bartow.

• Bailey sold professional fishing equipment and offered assistance and advice for competitive and professional fishermen.

Source: The Ledger, September 22, 2017

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

49

L A K E L A N D – W I N T E R H AV E N

Winter Haven looks to modernize zoning codes • In an attempt to give rise to development growth in office professional, multi-family residential, and single-family residential areas, Winter Haven worked on passing changes to land use regulations.

• In regards to office professional districts, proposed changes included some becoming defined as mixed-use districts, which would allow for already existing homes in office professional districts to fall into compliance with city code. This would spur home sales in the district.

• In multi-family districts, proposed changes included allowing for the development of singlefamily homes and low-intensity office areas (reliant on city approval) in the area. Proposed changes to dimension requirements had also been made for R-3 zones, which include single-family and multifamily homes.

Source: The Ledger, July 7, 2017 Are shopping malls on their way out in Polk?

• According to a report completed in May by Wall Street occupant Credit Suisse, about 20-25 percent brick-and-mortar U.S. malls will be closed in the next five years. Fixed costs, assumed by mall owners who typically pass the cost along to store tenants in lease agreements, are an obstacle to a mall’s survival.

• The biggest opponent to traditional malls is online commerce. Though this drive has been accredited to millennials, who now make up the largest share of the market, older generations are also participating in the online market. Local consumers have cited cheaper prices, larger selection, and greater convenience as causes to choose online shopping over traditional stores.

• Traditional malls rely on anchor stores to bring customer traffic to the building. Both indoor malls in Polk County have seen anchor stores leave, including Macy’s at Lakeland Square and Sears at Eagle Ridge.

Source: The Ledger, July 31, 2017 Lakeland Electric discusses possible elimination of utility surcharge and tax • The current utility surcharge levied on Lakeland Electric’s customers and the city utility tax may be cut from electric bills. Instead, a single rate may be charged in place of the “Inside the City Utility Tax” and the “Florida Public Surcharge.”

50

Florida & Metro Forecast / October 2017

• In terms of benefits, getting rid of these two items would give way to a new method of comparing prices, considering the single rate would be equally charged to both in-city and out-of-city customers.

In addition, Lakeland Electric has received plenty of backlash from customers outside the city lines for the surcharge.

• Lakeland Electric’s new base rate structure will be reviewed by the City Commission and put in place October 1 if approved.

Source: The Ledger, August 8, 2017 Polk home builders continue to prosper with huge spike in July permits • In July of this year, Polk County has seen a 45.1% increase in permits issued when compared to July 2016. This is the highest year-over-year percentage increase so far this year for Polk.

• A total of 2,496 single-family permits were issued in Polk County in July 2017. Local housing authorities believe Polk could issue a total of 4,000 permits for the year, which would be the first time Polk has issued 4,000 or more permits in a year since 2006.

• Mike Hickman, the owner of Hickman Homes Inc., stated, “The biggest factor keeping the building industry from meeting the demand is the shortage of new neighborhoods and building sites, particularly those neighborhoods at a reasonable price point.”

Source: The Ledger, August 25, 2017 Geico to hire hundreds, build $12 million facility • In the first half of 2018, Geico plans to begin construction on a new $12 million facility that will be located in Southwest Lakeland. The facility will bring in anywhere from 300 to 500 new jobs to the area.

• Geico has received a number of incentive packages, including $369,000 in hiring target incentives from the county over the course of five years, an exemption in property taxes worth $60,000 for the years 2019 to 2025, and $120,000 in impact-fee mitigation.

• County Commissioner George Lindsey acknowledges the high incentives but believes they are suitable considering Geico was considering building the facility in another county. Having the facility in Lakeland will increase the county tax base and bring in new jobs.

Source: The Ledger, September 19, 2017

L A K E L A N D – W I N T E R H AV E N Lakeland MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government

0

0.5

Florida & Lakeland Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(Percent)

2.5

35000.0

(Millions 2009 $)

25000.0 20000.0 15000.0

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 FL Unemployment Rate Lakeland Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

10000.0

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Gross Metro Product

Lakeland Real Personal Income 8.0%

(Percent Change Year Ago)

6.0%

260.0

4.0%

240.0

2.0%

220.0

0.0%

200.0

-2.0%

180.0 160.0

2

Lakeland Real Gross Metro Product

Lakeland Payroll Employment 280.0

1.5

30000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

1

-4.0% 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Lakeland Payroll Employment

-6.0%

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Personal Income

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

51

L A K E L A N D – W I N T E R H AV E N

Annual Outlook for Lakeland, FL October 2017 Irma 2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

19.7 0.0 8.0 11.7 18.8 -1.8 32.0 30.5 41.3 1.8

20.0 1.1 8.3 11.6 18.8 -0.2 31.9 30.0 42.0 1.7

20.9 4.9 8.7 12.2 19.4 3.3 32.9 30.4 42.9 2.1

21.9 4.7 9.1 12.8 20.2 4.4 33.6 31.0 43.7 2.1

22.9 4.2 9.7 13.2 20.8 3.1 34.2 31.2 44.7 2.2

23.7 3.7 10.0 13.7 21.3 2.1 34.8 31.3 45.1 0.9

24.9 5.1 10.6 14.3 22.0 3.5 36.1 31.9 46.5 3.1

26.7 7.3 11.2 15.5 23.2 5.3 38.2 33.2 48.4 4.0

28.6 6.8 11.8 16.8 24.2 4.5 40.3 34.2 50.2 3.9

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 192.5 197.1 201.5 1.4 2.4 2.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 14.6 15.9 16.4 Manufacturing 2.9 8.7 3.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 177.9 181.3 185.1 Nonmanufacturing 1.2 1.9 2.1 Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining 10.2 10.9 11.4 -1.3 6.8 4.1 Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities 47.1 48.1 49.4 2.5 2.1 2.8 Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade 9.2 9.4 9.5 Retail Trade 24.6 25.4 26.5 13.2 13.3 13.5 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information 1.6 1.6 1.6 -2.9 -1.5 1.1 Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities 11.4 11.6 11.7 -1.4 1.7 1.0 Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services 25.4 26.0 27.1 4.5 2.3 4.2 Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services 29.4 30.1 30.5 -0.9 2.3 1.3 Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality 18.9 19.6 20.8 6.2 4.0 5.8 Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services 5.3 5.3 5.6 -1.9 0.2 5.3 Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government 1.1 1.1 1.0 -7.6 -3.7 -6.2 Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government 27.5 27.0 26.1 -1.4 -1.7 -3.4 Pct Chg Year Ago

207.8 3.1 16.6 1.2 191.2 3.3 12.1 6.8 51.7 4.6 10.1 27.2 14.4 1.6 1.0 12.2 3.7 27.5 1.5 31.1 2.2 22.1 6.4 5.7 1.8 1.1 6.6 26.1 0.1

214.6 3.3 17.1 3.1 197.5 3.3 12.7 5.1 52.8 2.2 10.2 27.5 15.2 1.7 4.7 12.6 3.9 28.8 4.8 31.7 2.0 23.2 5.0 5.9 3.2 1.1 2.3 26.9 2.8

220.9 2.9 17.1 0.1 203.8 3.2 13.2 4.0 54.5 3.2 10.4 28.3 15.8 1.6 -3.1 12.7 0.9 30.0 4.3 32.9 3.7 23.7 2.2 6.1 3.1 1.1 3.0 27.8 3.5

226.2 2.4 17.3 1.2 208.9 2.5 13.8 4.5 54.9 0.7 10.6 27.8 16.0 1.6 -4.4 13.2 3.7 32.1 7.0 33.3 1.1 24.4 2.8 6.2 2.4 1.1 0.9 28.2 1.4

230.5 1.9 17.6 1.3 212.9 1.9 14.6 5.3 55.1 0.4 10.7 27.5 16.2 1.6 0.7 13.5 2.3 34.8 8.2 33.4 0.4 24.3 -0.3 6.2 0.0 1.1 -3.3 28.3 0.5

233.6 1.4 17.9 1.9 215.7 1.3 15.1 3.6 55.1 0.1 10.9 27.5 16.3 1.6 1.8 13.7 1.5 35.8 3.1 33.9 1.4 24.4 0.5 6.2 -0.3 1.2 10.5 28.6 0.8

651.7 2.3 279.6 0.3 6.3 3055.7 3020.5 35.0

667.9 2.5 284.9 1.9 5.6 4369.5 3509.6 860.0

680.5 1.9 293.3 2.9 5.0 4076.3 3996.1 80.0

690.1 1.4 297.6 1.5 5.0 5004.1 4410.5 594.0

699.1 1.3 303.7 2.1 4.8 5068.5 4195.7 873.0

707.6 1.2 310.4 2.2 4.7 5303.6 4296.3 1007.0

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

52

616.3 1.0 277.2 0.1 9.6 1454.5 1400.2 54.0

Florida & Metro Forecast / October 2017

624.5 1.3 278.5 0.5 8.2 1947.9 1915.0 33.0

636.9 2.0 278.7 0.0 7.2 2507.3 2502.4 5.0

L A K E L A N D – W I N T E R H AV E N

Quarterly Outlook for Lakeland, FL October 2017 Irma 2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

2020Q1

2020Q2

2020Q3

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

23.8 3.1 10.1 13.7 21.3 1.4

24 3.4 10.2 13.8 21.4 2

24.3 3.9 10.3 14 21.7 2.5

24.7 4.5 10.5 14.2 21.9 3

25.1 5.3 10.7 14.4 22.1 3.6

25.5 6.6 10.8 14.7 22.4 4.8

26 7 11 15.1 22.8 5

26.5 7.3 11.1 15.4 23 5.3

27 7.6 11.3 15.7 23.3 5.5

27.4 7.4 11.4 16 23.6 5.3

27.9 7.2 11.6 16.3 23.9 5

28.3 6.9 11.7 16.6 24.1 4.7

28.8 6.6 11.9 16.9 24.4 4.3

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

34.9 31.3 45.3 -0.3

35 31.3 45.4 1.5

35.4 31.5 45.8 2.4

35.8 31.8 46.3 2.6

36.3 32 46.7 3.2

36.8 32.3 47.2 3.9

37.4 32.7 47.6 3.9

38 33 48.1 4

38.5 33.3 48.6 4.1

39.1 33.6 49.1 4

39.6 33.9 49.5 4

40.1 34.1 50 3.9

40.6 34.4 50.5 3.8

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

221.9 2.7 17.2 0.5

222.4 2.1 17.2 0.8

224.3 2.4 17.3 1.9

225.8 2.4 17.3 1.6

226.8 2.2 17.4 0.7

227.9 2.5 17.4 0.6

229.2 2.2 17.4 0.8

230.2 1.9 17.5 0.9

230.8 1.8 17.6 1.4

231.7 1.6 17.7 2.1

232.4 1.4 17.8 2.3

233.2 1.3 17.9 2.2

234 1.4 17.9 1.8

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

204.6 2.9

205.2 2.2

207 2.4

208.4 2.5

209.4 2.3

210.6 2.6

211.8 2.3

212.7 2

213.2 1.8

214 1.6

214.6 1.3

215.4 1.3

216.1 1.3

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

13.2 3.8 54.6 2.4

13.6 6.5 54.8 2.2

13.7 4.9 54.8 0.7

13.8 5.1 54.8 1.2

13.9 4.9 54.9 0.5

14.1 3.2 55 0.3

14.3 4.8 55.1 0.5

14.5 5.5 55.1 0.5

14.7 5.7 55.1 0.4

14.8 5.3 55.1 0.1

15 4.3 55.1 0.1

15.1 3.9 55.1 0

15.2 3.4 55.2 0.1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

10.5 28.2 15.8

10.5 28.4 15.9

10.5 28.1 15.9

10.5 27.8 16

10.6 27.6 16

10.6 27.6 16.1

10.7 27.7 16.1

10.7 27.6 16.2

10.7 27.5 16.2

10.7 27.4 16.2

10.8 27.5 16.3

10.8 27.5 16.3

10.9 27.5 16.3

Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

1.6 -5.8 12.8 1.1

1.6 -6.3 12.8 0

1.6 -7.3 13 2.6

1.5 -5.8 13.2 3.7

1.6 -2.7 13.3 4

1.6 -1.8 13.4 4.7

1.6 1 13.4 3.3

1.6 1.4 13.5 2.2

1.6 0.1 13.5 1.9

1.6 0.3 13.6 1.8

1.6 1.2 13.7 1.6

1.6 1.8 13.7 1.5

1.6 2.1 13.8 1.5

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

30.4 4.2 32.9 4 23.8 1.7

30.4 2.8 33.1 2.3 23.4 -0.9

31 5.8 33.2 1.8 24.2 1.5

31.9 6.3 33.2 0.9 24.4 2.2

32.5 6.8 33.3 1.1 24.5 2.9

33.2 9.1 33.3 0.6 24.5 4.7

34.1 9.9 33.3 0.4 24.4 1

34.7 8.8 33.4 0.4 24.3 -0.4

35 7.8 33.4 0.3 24.3 -0.9

35.3 6.3 33.5 0.5 24.3 -0.7

35.4 3.9 33.6 1 24.4 -0.3

35.7 2.9 33.8 1.3 24.4 0.3

36 2.8 33.9 1.7 24.5 0.8

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

6.1 3.5 1.1 3.1

6.2 3.4 1.2 6

6.2 3.7 1.2 5.2

6.2 3.8 1.1 4.7

6.2 1.5 1.1 -0.9

6.2 0.8 1.1 -5.2

6.2 0.3 1.1 -8.6

6.2 0.1 1.1 -4.8

6.2 -0.1 1.1 -0.8

6.2 -0.3 1.1 1.4

6.2 -0.3 1.2 9.5

6.2 -0.4 1.3 21.8

6.2 -0.4 1.2 10.3

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

28 3.1

28.1 3

28.2 3

28.2 1.6

28.2 0.7

28.2 0.5

28.2 0.3

28.3 0.4

28.4 0.6

28.4 0.8

28.5 0.9

28.5 0.8

28.6 0.7

681.9 1.8

684.3 1.6

686.6 1.5

689 1.4

691.3 1.4

693.6 1.4

695.9 1.4

698 1.3

700.2 1.3

702.4 1.3

704.5 1.2

706.5 1.2

708.6 1.2

293 2.4 4.8

294.3 1.9 4.7

295.6 1 4.8

296.8 1.3 5

298.2 1.7 5.1

299.7 1.8 4.9

301.2 1.9 4.8

302.8 2 4.8

304.5 2.1 4.8

306.3 2.2 4.8

308.1 2.3 4.8

309.8 2.3 4.7

311.2 2.2 4.7

3845 3828 17

4221 4042 179

4792 4379 413

5005 4415 590

5155 4490 665

5064 4358 706

5015 4232 783

5008 4151 858

5091 4182 909

5160 4218 941

5233 4240 992

5288 4281 1006

5352 4333 1019

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

53

M I A M I – F O R T L AU D E R DA L E – W E S T PA L M B E AC H

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–West Palm Beach MSA is comprised of Miami-Dade County, Broward County, and Palm Beach County. Located on the southeast coast of Florida, Miami is home to the Port of Miami: the largest cruise ship port in the world and one of nation’s busiest cargo ports. Miami is also home to many sports teams including the Miami Dolphins, the Miami Heat, the Florida Marlins and the Florida Panthers, as well as many institutions of higher education including the University of Miami and Florida International University.

The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–West Palm Beach Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) area is expected to show mixed levels of growth in the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow an average of 5.8 percent annually. The average real per capita income level of $49,600 is the second highest in the areas studied. Average annual wage growth will be 3.8 percent, the second lowest of the MSAs; however, the average annual wage level is expected to be $61,000, the highest of the studied areas. Miami is expected to average a population growth of 1.2 percent each year. The area has the highest Gross Metro Product of the MSAs studied at an average level of 315,339.14 million dollars.

Employment is expected to grow at an average rate of 2.3 percent each year, while unemployment is expected to be moderate at an average rate of 4.5 percent.

Miami’s fastest growing sector is expected to be the Construction and Mining sector, which will experience 6.4 percent average annual growth, followed by the Professional and Business Services sector, which will grow at an average of 5.3 percent annually. The Information sector will experience a decline, with average annual growth rate of -0.1 percent.

QUICK FACTS: •

Metro area population estimate of 5,828,191 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

•

Miami-Dade County population estimate of 2,617,176 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

•

Broward County population estimate of 1,838,844 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

•

Palm Beach County population estimate of 1,372,171 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

•

Civilian labor force of 3,140,503 in August 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

•

An unemployment rate of 4.5% as of August 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 140,398 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database).

TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: • Miami-Dade County Public Schools – 33,477 • Miami-Dade County – 25,502 • Federal Government – 19,200 • Florida State Government – 17,100 • Baptist Health South Florida – 11,353 • University of Miami – 12,818 • American Airlines – 11,031 • Jackson Health System – 9,797 • Florida International University – 3,534 Source: The Beacon Council

54

Florida & Metro Forecast / October 2017

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Plan for restaurants, apartments in Ag Reserve gets key endorsement • In a 5-4 vote, the Palm Beach County Planning Commission endorsed an $84 million plan to develop a farming region west of Delray Beach.

• The project includes a 130-room hotel, a 115bed assisted-living center, 75,000 square feet of retail space, and a 360-unit apartment building, including 144 price-capped units.

• These plans are supported despite the 21,000acre Agricultural Reserve’s mission to preserve farming in the region because the facilities address needs for more affordable housing and assisted living facilities, and consequently more shopping and restaurants.

Source: Sun Sentinel, July 14, 2017

M I A M I – F O R T L AU D E R DA L E – W E S T PA L M B E AC H

School Board tentatively approves $5.1 billion budget, lower tax rate • The Miami-Dade School Board has given its initial approval for a $5.1 billion budget, the district’s largest since the recession. This includes money to hire more guidance counselors and custodians, in addition to purchasing new textbooks.

• Following the Florida Legislature’s decision to lower the districts’ contribution in order to receive state education funding, the school board has also lowered the tax rate to $6.99 per thousand dollars of taxable property value.

• Superintendent Alberto Carvalho has said that the budget does not include teacher layoffs, but the district will be making cuts to administrative spending.

Source: Miami Herald, July 26, 2017 Brightline train service delayed to year’s end • Although trains from West Palm Beach to Fort Lauderdale were slated to launch in the summer and the Fort Lauderdale to Miami route was planned to be opened in the fall, the services are now set to begin by the end of 2017.

• Development is still underway on the $3 billion high-speed rail service and Miami Central station, which will include a 50,000-square-foot food hall and 130,000 square feet of retail space. There are also buildings for 800 rental apartments and 90,000 square feet of office space in the works.

• David Howard, CEO of Brightline, will not be announcing a launch date “until the last piece of track has been laid down and all of the complex project’s pieces are in place.”

Source: Miami Herald, August 3, 2017 Florida International University plans hotel and conference center • In an effort to attract more researchers, conventions, and out-of-town visitors, Florida International University is planning a $59 million expansion.

• FIU will be adding a seven-story, 150-bed hotel complete with a pool, fitness center, restaurant, and conference center to its campus. There will

also be an $8 million, 14,000-square-foot alumni center that will serve as a mentorship and career center, library, and lounge.

• This project, the first university-affiliated hotel in South Florida, is expected to be completed by July 2019.

Source: Sun Sentinel, August 31, 2017 You’ll have to wait longer for Spanish River ramp, Hiatus Road extension • Following Hurricane Irma, many South Florida road construction projects are facing delays.

• The Spanish River Boulevard Project on Interstate 95 in Boca Raton, the Hiatus Road extension, a new bridge over the Dania Cut-Off Canal, and express lanes on Interstates 75, 95, and Florida’s Turnpike have all been affected.

• Construction on these roadways, several of which were scheduled to be completed fairly soon, will resume once damage assessments and debris cleanup are completed, resources and weather permitting.

Source: Sun Sentinel, September 15, 2017 Hurricane Irma leaves South Florida battered and barrels north • Hurricane Irma’s 185 MPH winds were predicted to put the densely populated coast of southeast Florida at risk, but the storm shifted west and spared the region.

• Still, over 898,000 customers were left without power in Miami-Dade, 709,000 in Broward, and 543,000 in Palm Beach County.

• FPL also lost power for one minute, causing 86,000 gallons of wastewater—which may or may not have been partially treated—to spill into the Intracoastal Waterway.

• Although damages still need to be assessed, there is potential for a lot of water damage claims because there were many reports of flooding into yards and houses, especially in the Intracoastal areas.

Source: Sun Sentinel, September 11, 2017

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

55

M I A M I – F O R T L AU D E R DA L E – W E S T PA L M B E AC H Miami - Fort Lauderdale - Pompano Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government

0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Miami Unemployment Rate (Percent)

12.0%

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

Miami Real Gross Metro Product 600000.0

(Millions 2009 $)

500000.0

10.0% 8.0%

400000.0

6.0% 300000.0

4.0% 2.0%

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 FL Unemployment Rate Miami Unemployment Rate

200000.0

Miami Real Personal Income

Miami Payroll Employment 3600.0 3400.0 3200.0 3000.0 2800.0 2600.0 2400.0 2200.0 2000.0

56

(Thousands)

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Gross Metro Product

10.0%

(Percent Change Year Ago)

5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0%

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Miami Payroll Employment

Florida & Metro Forecast / October 2017

-15.0%

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Personal Income

M I A M I – F O R T L AU D E R DA L E – W E S T PA L M B E AC H

Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL October 2017 Irma 2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

264.6 3.8 115.7 148.9 252.0 2.0 45.7 43.5 50.3 2.0

264.4 -0.1 120.3 144.2 248.5 -1.4 45.1 42.4 50.9 1.2

284.4 7.5 127.8 156.5 263.0 5.8 47.9 44.3 52.3 2.8

299.5 5.3 136.6 162.9 276.2 5.0 49.8 46.0 54.1 3.4

312.2 4.2 144.3 167.9 284.9 3.1 51.4 46.9 55.5 2.6

323.0 3.5 149.6 173.4 290.0 1.8 52.6 47.3 56.2 1.3

340.1 5.3 158.6 181.5 300.7 3.7 54.8 48.4 57.9 3.0

366.0 7.6 168.7 197.3 317.4 5.5 58.2 50.5 60.2 3.9

391.5 7.0 178.2 213.3 332.3 4.7 61.5 52.2 62.5 3.9

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 2286.8 2349.0 2428.4 2.4 2.7 3.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 77.0 77.8 81.4 Manufacturing 0.9 1.0 4.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 2209.8 2271.2 2347.1 Nonmanufacturing 2.4 2.8 3.3 Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining 87.1 93.4 102.5 1.7 7.3 9.7 Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities 537.1 550.4 567.2 3.2 2.5 3.1 Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade 139.1 140.7 142.9 Retail Trade 303.7 313.0 324.8 94.2 96.7 99.6 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information 45.2 46.4 47.8 2.5 2.7 2.9 Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities 161.4 164.5 168.8 3.2 1.9 2.6 Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services 353.0 371.1 389.9 4.0 5.1 5.1 Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services 341.8 346.5 355.9 0.2 1.4 2.7 Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality 275.6 286.5 297.4 5.2 3.9 3.8 Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services 108.5 111.8 117.2 4.5 3.0 4.8 Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government 33.8 33.5 32.7 -1.0 -0.9 -2.3 Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government 266.3 267.1 267.6 -1.7 0.3 0.2 Pct Chg Year Ago

2510.7 3.4 85.2 4.7 2425.4 3.3 113.1 10.3 584.7 3.1 145.0 335.6 104.2 48.1 0.8 174.3 3.3 406.2 4.2 367.7 3.3 308.7 3.8 121.3 3.5 33.2 1.5 268.1 0.2

2587.7 3.1 87.9 3.1 2499.9 3.1 122.9 8.7 593.1 1.4 146.0 337.8 109.4 49.3 2.4 176.0 1.0 424.6 4.5 381.1 3.6 321.8 4.2 125.1 3.2 33.6 1.2 272.4 1.6

2648.1 2.3 87.7 -0.2 2560.4 2.4 129.5 5.4 602.5 1.6 149.5 340.7 112.1 48.9 -0.9 175.0 -0.5 436.5 2.8 398.1 4.5 329.9 2.5 129.4 3.5 33.9 0.8 276.5 1.5

2725.4 2.9 87.3 -0.5 2638.1 3.0 138.6 7.0 607.5 0.8 152.0 337.3 113.9 47.7 -2.4 182.8 4.4 463.9 6.3 406.0 2.0 345.9 4.9 132.7 2.5 33.7 -0.4 279.2 1.0

2790.4 2.4 88.1 0.9 2702.3 2.4 149.3 7.7 611.1 0.6 154.6 336.1 115.5 48.2 1.0 187.7 2.7 504.1 8.7 408.0 0.5 345.6 -0.1 133.8 0.8 33.0 -2.2 281.6 0.9

2838.0 1.7 89.5 1.6 2748.5 1.7 157.8 5.7 613.0 0.3 156.9 336.6 116.5 49.0 1.7 191.5 2.1 520.7 3.3 414.5 1.6 348.6 0.9 134.4 0.4 34.8 5.5 284.2 0.9

6009.4 1.2 2994.7 0.3 5.4 20230.2 7151.7 13079.0

6073.9 1.1 3056.0 2.0 5.0 19019.9 6875.4 12144.0

6135.8 1.0 3141.1 2.8 4.6 16892.6 8213.4 8679.0

6207.4 1.2 3178.2 1.2 4.6 29788.4 14677.9 15111.0

6284.0 1.2 3225.3 1.5 4.4 33401.2 17088.2 16313.0

6362.2 1.2 3280.3 1.7 4.4 35586.1 18141.9 17444.0

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5788.9 1.5 2907.3 1.7 8.2 11297.5 5304.0 5993.0

5865.8 1.3 2935.9 1.0 7.2 17028.7 6269.3 10759.0

5939.0 1.2 2987.1 1.7 6.3 14451.3 5810.2 8641.0

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

57

M I A M I – F O R T L AU D E R DA L E – W E S T PA L M B E AC H

Quarterly Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL October 2017 Irma 2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

2020Q1

2020Q2

2020Q3

324.7 2.8 150.7 174 290.9 1.1

326.3 3.3 151.4 174.9 291.4 1.9

331.8 4 154.6 177.2 295.4 2.6

336.9 4.7 157.5 179.4 298.5 3.1

342.5 5.5 159.9 182.7 302.2 3.9

349.1 7 162.5 186.6 306.6 5.2

356.2 7.3 165.2 191 311.3 5.4

362.6 7.6 167.6 195 315.3 5.6

369.5 7.9 169.9 199.6 319.6 5.8

375.7 7.6 172.2 203.5 323.3 5.4

382.4 7.4 174.5 207.9 327.3 5.1

388.7 7.2 177.1 211.6 330.8 4.9

394.6 6.8 179.4 215.2 334.1 4.5

52.8 47.4 56.4 0.1

53 47.3 56.5 1.8

53.7 47.8 57.1 2.4

54.4 48.2 57.6 2.6

55.1 48.6 58.2 3.2

56 49.2 58.7 3.9

56.9 49.8 59.3 3.9

57.8 50.3 59.9 3.9

58.7 50.8 60.4 3.9

59.5 51.2 61 3.9

60.4 51.7 61.6 3.9

61.2 52.1 62.2 3.8

61.9 52.4 62.8 3.8

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

2659 2.3 87.3 -0.8

2663.9 2 87.2 -1.5

2695.6 2.7 87.2 -1.6

2718.7 2.8 87.4 -0.4

2734.6 2.8 87.4 0.1

2752.7 3.3 87.2 -0.1

2771.7 2.8 87.5 0.3

2785.5 2.5 87.8 0.5

2796.3 2.3 88.3 1.1

2808.1 2 88.8 1.9

2818.2 1.7 89.3 2.1

2834.5 1.8 89.5 1.9

2844.5 1.7 89.6 1.5

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

2571.7 2.4

2576.6 2.1

2608.4 2.8

2631.3 2.9

2647.3 2.9

2665.5 3.4

2684.2 2.9

2697.7 2.5

2708.1 2.3

2719.3 2

2729 1.7

2745 1.8

2754.8 1.7

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

128.9 3.8 603.5 1.3

135.4 8.2 606 1.7

136.2 8.2 606.2 1.1

137.3 7.3 606.8 0.9

139 7.8 607.7 0.7

141.9 4.8 609.3 0.5

145.3 6.7 610.6 0.7

148.1 7.9 611.2 0.7

150.7 8.4 611.3 0.6

153.2 7.9 611.3 0.3

155.3 6.8 612.3 0.3

157 6 612.2 0.2

158.6 5.2 613.2 0.3

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

150.4 339.6 112.4

151.5 342 112.7

151.3 339.7 113.2

151.5 337.5 113.8

152.2 336 114.1

153.2 336.1 114.6

153.9 337 115.1

154.4 336.7 115.5

154.7 335.8 115.7

155.2 335.1 115.9

156 336 116.1

156.6 336.1 116.3

157.2 336.9 116.6

Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

48.9 -0.9 175.5 -0.8

48.8 -1.2 174.9 -0.1

47.5 -3.3 179.3 2.5

47.3 -3.1 182.6 4.4

47.9 -2 183.9 4.8

48.2 -1.1 185.2 5.9

48.1 1.4 186.2 3.8

48.1 1.6 187.1 2.5

48.2 0.5 188.1 2.3

48.5 0.6 189.3 2.2

48.7 1.3 190.2 2.2

48.9 1.7 190.9 2

49.1 2 192 2.1

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

437.7 2.1 401.6 5 335.1 4

437.9 2 404.2 4.5 326.2 -0.2

447 3.4 405.1 3.5 341.9 4.9

459.4 4.9 405.6 2.6 346.7 4.4

469 7.1 406.4 1.2 347.7 3.8

480.1 9.6 407 0.7 347.5 6.5

493.5 10.4 406.8 0.4 346.8 1.4

502.3 9.3 407.3 0.4 345.6 -0.3

508.1 8.3 408 0.4 344.7 -0.9

512.3 6.7 409.7 0.7 345.3 -0.6

514.2 4.2 411.4 1.1 346.5 -0.1

517.8 3.1 413.4 1.5 347.8 0.7

523.1 2.9 415.6 1.9 349.3 1.3

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

129.8 3.5 33.9 0.9

131.1 3.1 34.4 1.2

132.1 3.1 34.4 2.4

132.6 3 33.9 1.3

133 2.4 33.4 -1.6

133.3 1.6 33.2 -3.5

133.6 1.1 33.1 -3.8

133.8 0.9 33.1 -2.6

133.9 0.7 33 -1.3

134 0.5 32.9 -1

134.3 0.5 32.8 -1.1

134.3 0.4 38.8 17.3

134.4 0.4 35.1 6.4

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

276.6 1.1

277.6 0.9

278.6 1

279.1 1

279.3 1

279.8 0.8

280.2 0.6

281.2 0.7

282 1

282.9 1.1

283.4 1.1

283.9 1

284.4 0.8

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

6143.7 1

6161.7 1.1

6179.8 1.1

6197.7 1.2

6216.4 1.2

6235.5 1.2

6254.6 1.2

6274.1 1.2

6293.8 1.2

6313.4 1.2

6333 1.3

6352.5 1.2

6372.1 1.2

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%)

3153.1 3 4.3

3157.5 2.2 4.3

3165.4 1.7 4.5

3172.5 1 4.6

3181.7 0.9 4.7

3193.4 1.1 4.6

3205.6 1.3 4.5

3217.5 1.4 4.4

3231.8 1.6 4.5

3246.1 1.7 4.4

3260.9 1.7 4.4

3274.4 1.8 4.4

3286.9 1.7 4.4

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

13093 7878 5215

19017 10190 8827

26212 12758 13454

30167 14179 15988

31371 15651 15721

31403 16124 15279

32007 16466 15541

33213 16911 16302

33980 17322 16658

34405 17654 16751

34888 17809 17080

35282 18050 17232

36074 18331 17744

Other Economic Indicators

58

Florida & Metro Forecast / October 2017

NAPLES – IMMOKALEE – MARCO ISLAND

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Naples–Immokalee–Marco Island MSA is comprised of Collier County only. Located on the southwest coast of Florida it is notable for numerous recreation and leisure activities. This region is sometimes referred to as the “Crown Jewel of Southwest Florida”.

The Naples–Immokalee–Marco Island Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show mixed levels of growth in the economic indicators relative to the other MSAs studied. The metro area shows the second highest personal income growth among the studied MSAs at an average of 7.4 percent. The real per capita income level is expected to average $76,700, the highest of the MSAs. Average annual wage will be at a level of $54,600. The average annual wage is expected to grow at 3.0 percent annually. Population growth will average 2.6 percent, the highest in the studied areas, and the Gross Metro Product will average 18,692.97 million dollars.

Employment growth is expected to average 3.2 percent each year, the highest of the MSAs. The metro will see an average unemployment rate of 4.6 percent.

The Construction and Mining sector represents Naples’ fastest growing sector, growing at an average rate of 8.4 percent each year. The Professional and Business Services sector will follow with an average growth rate of 5.7 percent. None of the sectors are expected to decline.

QUICK FACTS: •

Population estimate of 339,642 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

•

A civilian labor force of 168,487 in August 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

•

An unemployment rate of 4.7% as of August 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 7,899 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database).

TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: •

Naples Community Hospital – 4,000

•

The Ritz-Carlton, Naples – 1,110

•

Gargiulo, Inc. – 1,110

•

Arthrex, Inc – 1,056

•

Collier County Sheriff’s Office – 1,029

•

Hometown Inspection Svc. – 900

•

Publix – 800

•

Marriott – 700

•

Naples Grande Beach Resort – 700

•

Downing Frye Realty – 550

Source: Collier Business & Economic Development

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Hurricane Irma’s tab continues to climb in Collier County • Hurricane Irma’s tab—the amount set aside by the county government to manage and clean up the disaster—in Collier County is already $64 million and is continuing to grow.

• $38 million was spent on clearing debris from roads and curbsides and $7 million was allocated to the Sheriff’s Office to pay for employee overtime before, during, and after the storm.

• Although all the money spent managing the disaster will qualify to be reimbursed by the federal government, nobody knows how long that will take. The process could take years, creating serious difficulties in cash management.

Source: Naples Daily News, October 8, 2017

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

59

NAPLES – IMMOKALEE – MARCO ISLAND

Hurricane Irma caused ‘extensive damage’ to Collier beaches; damage elsewhere less severe • Hurricane Irma caused widespread damage, including shoreline damage. Collier beaches generate billions of dollars in economic activity and billions of dollars in tourism-related sales tax each year.

• Florida lawmakers appropriated $50 million to beach funding this year; this is the largest amount appropriated in more than a decade.

• Jack Wert, Collier’s tourism director, said that repairing the beaches will be a “top priority.”

Source: Naples Daily News, September 17, 2017 Community Foundation of Collier County awards $5.6 million in grants • The purpose of the grants to charitable organizations is to make the community a better place for the residents.

• Grants in the fourth quarter were in the categories of arts, community impact, economic development, education, environment, health, human services, religion, and international.

• Eileen Connolly-Kessler, who is the foundation’s president and chief executive officer, said, “These unrestricted dollars help to ensure our community has the resources to meet the unimagined needs of generations to come.”

Source: Naples Daily News, September 4, 2017 Southwest Florida real estate briefs • Diamond Oaks Village, which is a new independent senior living community, has recently opened in Bonita Springs. The community has 160 one- and two-bedroom units.

• GATES Construction has finished the first phase of an improvement to Naples Outlet Center. The renovation is to create a more modern look.

60

Florida & Metro Forecast / October 2017

• James D. York P.A. is a local realtor and along with realtors Michael and Morgan York, he is hosting a show called, “Southwest Florida Real Estate Update.” The show covers current issues and trends and will feature a new guest each week.

Source: Naples Daily News, August 26, 2017 Renters finding few options; high prices • Demand is driving up the cost of housing in Southwest Florida.

• According to Cosset Garcia, a realtor who has worked in Southwest Florida for almost a decade, believes that climbing home prices and low inventory have pushed families into the rental market and driven up demand.

• The high cost is forcing families to move farther away from the coast and where most of the jobs and infrastructure are.

Source: Naples Herald, August 11, 2017

NAPLES – IMMOKALEE – MARCO ISLAND Naples - Marco Island MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

Florida & Naples Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(Percent)

2.5

45000.0

(Millions 2009 $)

40000.0 30000.0 25000.0 20000.0 15000.0

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 FL Unemployment Rate Naples Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

10000.0

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Gross Metro Product

Naples Real Personal Income 15.0%

(Percent Change Year Ago)

10.0%

250.0

5.0%

200.0

0.0% -5.0%

150.0

-10.0%

100.0 50.0

2

Naples Real Gross Metro Product

Naples Payroll Employment 300.0

1.5

35000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

1

-15.0% 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Naples Payroll Employment

-20.0%

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Personal Income

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

61

NAPLES – IMMOKALEE – MARCO ISLAND

Annual Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL October 2017 Irma 2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

24.1 9.4 5.6 18.5 23.0 7.6 72.3 68.9 46.6 1.5

24.1 0.0 6.0 18.1 22.6 -1.4 70.8 66.5 48.3 3.5

26.9 11.6 6.4 20.5 24.9 9.9 77.1 71.3 48.9 1.3

28.0 4.2 6.8 21.2 25.9 3.9 78.4 72.3 49.8 1.9

29.3 4.4 7.3 22.0 26.7 3.3 79.9 72.9 51.2 2.7

30.5 4.2 7.5 23.0 27.4 2.5 81.1 72.8 51.8 1.2

32.5 6.5 8.1 24.4 28.7 4.9 84.1 74.4 53.3 3.0

35.7 9.8 8.7 27.0 30.9 7.7 90.1 78.1 55.5 4.1

38.9 9.1 9.4 29.6 33.0 6.8 95.9 81.4 57.7 4.0

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 118.7 123.3 129.9 3.2 3.9 5.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.7 3.0 3.3 Manufacturing 8.0 13.6 8.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 116.0 120.2 126.6 Nonmanufacturing 3.1 3.7 5.3 Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining 9.4 10.5 12.1 4.4 11.7 15.5 Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities 22.8 23.9 25.3 2.5 5.1 5.9 Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade 3.0 3.4 3.7 Retail Trade 18.4 19.1 20.1 1.4 1.4 1.5 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information 1.4 1.5 1.5 -2.3 4.0 -0.6 Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities 6.7 7.0 7.5 4.2 4.2 7.1 Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services 13.3 13.5 14.4 9.7 1.7 6.5 Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services 18.0 18.3 18.8 0.3 1.7 3.0 Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality 23.6 24.4 25.5 4.3 3.7 4.4 Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services 7.4 7.9 8.3 2.5 6.6 5.1 Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government 0.6 0.6 0.6 -7.3 -7.6 0.0 Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government 12.7 12.5 12.4 -0.3 -1.7 -0.5 Pct Chg Year Ago

136.1 4.8 3.4 4.3 132.7 4.8 13.6 12.1 26.3 3.7 3.7 20.8 1.7 1.5 2.3 8.0 6.1 15.3 5.9 19.9 5.5 26.5 3.8 8.5 1.6 0.6 2.8 12.6 1.6

142.4 4.7 3.8 9.3 138.7 4.5 15.0 10.5 27.1 3.2 3.9 21.3 1.9 1.6 5.0 8.0 0.1 16.1 5.5 21.1 5.9 27.2 2.8 9.1 7.2 0.7 12.3 12.9 2.0

144.7 1.6 4.0 7.3 140.7 1.5 16.4 9.7 27.3 0.7 4.1 21.2 1.9 1.6 0.1 8.0 0.0 16.1 -0.3 21.8 3.6 26.5 -2.7 9.4 3.8 0.7 3.4 12.9 0.3

151.5 4.7 4.0 0.5 147.4 4.8 17.8 8.4 27.9 2.4 4.2 21.3 2.0 1.6 -1.0 8.6 7.4 17.4 8.3 22.5 2.9 27.9 5.4 9.9 4.6 0.7 2.5 13.2 2.0

156.8 3.5 4.1 1.6 152.7 3.6 19.4 9.0 28.4 1.8 4.4 21.5 2.1 1.6 2.1 9.0 5.2 19.2 10.3 22.8 1.5 28.0 0.3 10.1 2.2 0.7 -1.3 13.4 1.9

161.4 3.0 4.2 2.1 157.2 3.0 20.7 6.6 28.9 1.5 4.5 21.8 2.1 1.7 2.8 9.4 4.5 20.0 4.3 23.4 2.8 28.3 1.2 10.3 1.8 0.8 14.3 13.7 2.1

357.6 2.5 163.4 2.0 5.2 3818.2 3058.3 760.0

366.4 2.5 167.7 2.6 4.8 3804.0 3062.5 741.0

376.5 2.7 168.4 0.4 4.4 3527.3 2854.4 673.0

386.4 2.6 167.7 -0.4 4.6 4897.3 2898.9 1998.0

396.1 2.5 169.6 1.1 4.7 5173.7 2593.8 2580.0

406.0 2.5 173.8 2.5 4.7 5528.0 2677.2 2851.0

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

62

333.3 1.6 152.7 2.6 8.4 1493.3 1283.2 210.0

Florida & Metro Forecast / October 2017

340.4 2.1 155.5 1.8 7.1 2348.3 1731.8 617.0

349.0 2.5 160.2 3.0 6.0 3267.7 2391.8 876.0

NAPLES – IMMOKALEE – MARCO ISLAND

Quarterly Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL October 2017 Irma 2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

2020Q1

2020Q2

2020Q3

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

30.7 3.7 7.6 23.1 27.5 2

30.9 4.2 7.6 23.3 27.6 2.7

31.5 4.9 7.9 23.7 28.1 3.5

32.1 5.8 8 24.1 28.5 4.3

32.8 6.8 8.2 24.6 28.9 5.2

33.6 8.6 8.3 25.2 29.5 6.8

34.4 9.2 8.5 25.9 30.1 7.2

35.2 9.7 8.7 26.6 30.6 7.6

36.1 10.2 8.8 27.3 31.3 8

36.9 10 9 28 31.8 7.7

37.8 9.8 9.1 28.7 32.3 7.5

38.6 9.4 9.3 29.3 32.8 7.1

39.3 8.8 9.4 29.9 33.3 6.5

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

81.3 72.8 51.9 0

81.3 72.7 52 1.4

82.4 73.3 52.5 2.2

83.4 73.9 53.1 2.7

84.6 74.7 53.6 3.2

86.1 75.6 54.1 4

87.7 76.7 54.6 4

89.2 77.6 55.2 4

91 78.7 55.8 4.1

92.4 79.5 56.3 4.1

93.9 80.4 56.9 4.1

95.3 81.1 57.4 3.9

96.6 81.7 58 3.9

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

145.6 0.9 4 5.4

146.1 2.4 4 4.3

149 4.4 4 -0.4

150.9 4.4 4 0.8

152.3 4.6 4.1 0.9

153.7 5.2 4.1 0.8

155.1 4.1 4.1 1

156.3 3.5 4.1 1.1

157.3 3.3 4.1 1.7

158.4 3.1 4.2 2.4

159.6 2.9 4.2 2.6

160.9 2.9 4.2 2.4

162 3 4.2 2.1

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

141.5 0.8

142.1 2.3

145 4.5

146.9 4.5

148.2 4.7

149.6 5.3

151 4.2

152.2 3.6

153.1 3.3

154.3 3.1

155.4 2.9

156.7 3

157.8 3

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

16.4 8.2 27.4 -0.4

17.3 12.2 27.7 2.9

17.4 10.3 27.7 3.6

17.6 8.6 27.9 2.3

17.9 9 28 2

18.3 5.8 28.1 1.7

18.8 8.2 28.3 1.9

19.2 9.1 28.4 1.9

19.6 9.5 28.5 1.8

20 9 28.6 1.5

20.3 7.7 28.7 1.4

20.6 7 28.8 1.3

20.8 6.3 28.9 1.6

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

4.1 21.3 2

4.2 21.5 2

4.2 21.4 2

4.2 21.3 2

4.2 21.2 2

4.3 21.3 2.1

4.3 21.4 2.1

4.4 21.5 2.1

4.4 21.5 2.1

4.4 21.5 2.1

4.5 21.6 2.1

4.5 21.7 2.1

4.5 21.8 2.1

Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

1.6 -0.4 8 -0.4

1.6 0.7 8 -0.4

1.6 -1.7 8.3 4.2

1.6 -1.9 8.6 6.6

1.6 -0.5 8.7 8.3

1.6 0.2 8.8 10.3

1.6 2.6 8.9 7.1

1.6 2.7 9 4.8

1.6 1.6 9.1 4.5

1.6 1.7 9.2 4.5

1.6 2.3 9.3 4.5

1.7 2.7 9.4 4.6

1.7 3 9.5 4.6

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

16.3 0.8 22 3 26.7 -3.4

16.3 0.9 22.2 3.9 25.7 -3.7

16.7 3.6 22.3 4 27.4 4.1

17.2 10.1 22.4 3.2 28 3

17.6 8.1 22.5 2.6 28.1 5.4

18.1 11.3 22.6 1.9 28.1 9.6

18.7 12.4 22.6 1.5 28.1 2.5

19.1 11.1 22.7 1.5 28 0

19.4 9.9 22.8 1.4 27.9 -0.7

19.6 8 23 1.6 28 -0.5

19.7 5.2 23.2 2.2 28.1 0.1

19.9 4.1 23.4 2.7 28.3 1

20.1 4 23.5 3.1 28.4 1.8

9.5 4 0.7 1.4

9.7 4.5 0.7 6.9

9.8 6.1 0.8 8.6

9.8 5.1 0.7 4.8

9.9 4.1 0.7 0.2

10 3.2 0.7 -3

10 2.5 0.7 -7.1

10.1 2.3 0.7 -3.1

10.1 2.1 0.7 1.2

10.2 1.8 0.8 3.9

10.2 1.8 0.8 15.6

10.2 1.8 0.9 26.1

10.3 1.7 0.8 13.6

12.9 -1

13 0.8

13.1 2

13.1 1.9

13.2 2.2

13.2 1.9

13.3 1.7

13.4 1.8

13.4 2

13.5 2.2

13.6 2.3

13.6 2.1

13.7 2

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

377.8 2.8

380.3 2.8

382.8 2.7

385.2 2.7

387.6 2.6

390 2.6

392.4 2.5

394.9 2.5

397.3 2.5

399.8 2.5

402.2 2.5

404.7 2.5

407.2 2.5

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%)

168.3 0.1 4.2

167.9 0.2 4.2

167.7 -0.1 4.4

167.6 -1.1 4.6

167.7 -0.4 4.8

167.9 0 4.7

168.4 0.4 4.6

169 0.8 4.6

169.9 1.3 4.7

170.9 1.8 4.7

172 2.1 4.8

173.2 2.5 4.7

174.4 2.6 4.7

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

3043 2789 255

3651 2858 794

4512 2983 1529

4967 2935 2032

5071 2902 2169

5039 2776 2262

5042 2651 2392

5126 2547 2579

5228 2575 2653

5299 2602 2697

5393 2623 2770

5463 2661 2802

5597 2703 2894

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

63

OCALA

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

Comprised of Marion County only, the Ocala MSA is located northwest of the Orlando area and is in the center of the state. The second largest national forest in Florida, the Ocala National Forest, and Silver Springs are two main outdoor attractions in the area.

The Ocala Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show mixed levels of growth in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to average 6.9 percent annually. Real per capita income level is the second lowest of the twelve metros at an average of $33,700. Relative to other metro areas, Ocala will have the lowest average annual wage level at $43,500. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.1 percent. The metro has an expected annual average population growth of 1.7 percent. The Gross Metro Product is expected to average 8,087.80 million dollars, which is the lowest of the studied areas.

Employment growth is expected to average a rate of 2.5 percent annually. The unemployment rate is estimated to average 5.2 percent, the highest of the researched areas.

The Construction and Mining sector is expected to be the fastest growing sector in Ocala, with an average annual growth rate of 7.4 percent. This is followed by the Professional and Business Services sector with 5.7 percent average annual growth. The Information sector will experience a decline, with an average annual growth rate of -2.9 percent.

QUICK FACTS: •

Population estimate of 337,362 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

•

Civilian labor force of 135,917 in August 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

•

An unemployment rate of 4.9% as of August 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 6,668 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database).

TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: •

Marion County Public Schools – 6,650

•

Munroe Regional medical Center – 2,648

•

State of Florida (all departments) – 2,600

•

Wal-Mart – 2,370

•

Ocala Regional Health System – 2,166

•

Publix Supermarkets – 1,488

•

Marion County Board of County Commissioners – 1,368

•

Lockheed Martin – 1,018

•

AT&T – 1,000

•

City of Ocala – 989

Source: Ocala/Marion County Chamber & Economic Partnership

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Home sales remained strong in July • The median home sales price was $152,000, which is 7.8% greater than in July 2016.

• Vicky Morrison, who is vice president of the Ocala/Marion County Association of Realtors, believes that the market is healthy and mentions that prices are rising but not as quickly as before the Great Recession.

• At the current sales rate, there is a 4.9-month supply of homes, provided there are no new listings; the benchmark for a balanced market— one favoring neither buyers nor sellers—is 5.5 months.

Source: Ocala Star Banner, August 25, 2017

64

Florida & Metro Forecast / October 2017

OCALA

City of Ocala election set for Tuesday • The city of Ocala general elections is scheduled for Tuesday, September 19.

• Incumbent Kent Guinn and Catherine Zimmer are contending for mayor.

• Incumbent Jim Hilty and Justin Grabell are contending for City Council Seat 5.

Source: Ocala Star Banner, September 17, 2017 CenterState Bank buys Harbor Community, Sunshine banks • Representatives of CenterState Banks announced that it will purchase HCBF Holding Company, which is the parent company of Harbor Community Bank, and Sunshine Bancorp, which is the parent company of Sunshine Bank.

• According to Gilbert Pomar, the executive vice president and a regional president at CenterState, the transition should be smooth for customers.

Aftermath of Hurricane Irma Lingers • As of Monday, September 18, Ocala Electric had 60 customers still without power, down from 40,670 a week prior. Duke Energy Florida reported that 8,343 Marion customers were without power, down from 54,517 a week prior from September 18.

• The USDA allowed for free school lunches for all students in 48 counties that were hit by Irma, including Marion.

• The storm has caused 34 deaths—two of which occurred in Marion County.

• As of Sunday, September 17, 335,347 Irmarelated insurance claims have been filed in Florida. Total insurance losses are estimated at $1,954,947,889.

Source: Ocala Star Banner, September 18, 2017

• Members have to do nothing to prepare, as everything is handled electronically.

Source: Ocala Star Banner, August 14, 2017 News and events in business and industry • Five Marion County companies were selected for the 2017 Florida Companies to watch: Human Potential Healthcare Workforce Solutions, LLC, Marion Precision Tool, Inc., MzeroA.com, Raneys, Inc., and Winco Mfg., LLC. • SECO Energy ranks highest in customer satisfaction among all-electric cooperatives nationally, according to J.D. Power 2017 Electric Utility Residential Customer Satisfaction Study.

Source: Ocala Star Banner, July 24, 2017

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

65

OCALA Ocala MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

Florida & Ocala Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(Percent)

1.6

1.8

2

16000.0

(Millions 2009 $)

10000.0 8000.0 6000.0

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 FL Unemployment Rate Ocala Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

120.0 100.0

66

1.4

12000.0

140.0

80.0

1.2

Ocala Real Gross Metro Product

4000.0

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Ocala Payroll Employment

Florida & Metro Forecast / October 2017

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Gross Metro Product

Ocala Real Personal Income

Ocala Payroll Employment 160.0

1

14000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

0.8

12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0%

(Percent Change Year Ago)

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Personal Income

OCALA

Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL October 2017 Irma 2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

10.6 0.9 3.5 7.2 10.1 -0.8 31.8 30.3 37.7 1.5

10.6 -0.7 3.6 7.0 9.9 -2.0 31.4 29.5 38.3 1.4

11.1 4.9 3.7 7.4 10.2 3.3 32.6 30.2 38.7 1.1

11.6 4.7 3.9 7.7 10.7 4.4 33.7 31.1 39.9 3.0

12.1 4.6 4.1 8.0 11.1 3.5 34.7 31.7 40.8 2.3

12.7 4.3 4.3 8.4 11.4 2.7 35.6 32.0 41.2 1.1

13.4 6.0 4.5 8.9 11.9 4.4 37.1 32.8 42.5 3.2

14.6 8.8 4.8 9.8 12.7 6.8 39.7 34.4 44.3 4.1

15.8 8.3 5.1 10.7 13.4 6.0 42.2 35.8 46.1 4.0

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 91.0 92.8 95.6 1.4 2.0 3.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 6.7 6.9 7.2 Manufacturing 4.5 3.0 4.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 84.2 85.9 88.3 Nonmanufacturing 1.1 1.9 2.9 Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining 5.4 5.8 6.2 -5.9 8.2 7.7 Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities 20.9 21.5 22.1 3.3 2.7 2.8 Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade 3.4 3.4 3.2 Retail Trade 14.9 15.1 15.7 2.7 3.0 3.2 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information 0.9 0.8 0.8 -10.0 -6.4 -5.0 Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities 4.2 4.2 4.1 -0.2 -0.2 -2.1 Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services 8.6 9.1 9.5 8.3 5.6 5.1 Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services 14.3 14.3 16.8 3.0 0.6 17.2 Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality 10.3 10.6 11.1 2.2 2.7 4.6 Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services 2.8 2.9 3.0 -11.6 3.0 5.6 Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government 16.2 15.9 13.9 -1.4 -1.6 -12.8 Pct Chg Year Ago

97.5 2.1 7.6 4.7 89.9 1.8 6.5 3.5 22.6 2.2 3.3 16.1 3.2 0.8 -0.1 4.1 -1.3 9.2 -3.4 17.7 5.2 11.9 6.7 3.0 0.4 0.7 -0.1 13.6 -2.2

100.8 3.4 7.9 4.0 92.9 3.3 7.0 7.9 23.2 2.8 3.4 16.4 3.4 0.8 0.1 3.8 -5.9 9.5 3.3 18.3 3.8 12.6 6.0 3.2 3.6 0.7 0.1 13.9 2.2

103.3 2.4 8.1 2.6 95.2 2.4 7.6 9.7 23.8 2.7 3.3 16.9 3.6 0.7 -9.5 3.8 -0.8 10.1 6.1 18.8 2.6 12.4 -1.4 3.2 2.2 0.7 2.5 13.9 0.6

106.2 2.9 8.2 0.9 98.1 3.0 8.2 7.1 24.1 1.1 3.3 16.8 3.7 0.7 -6.2 4.0 6.2 10.6 5.2 19.2 1.8 13.0 5.1 3.3 3.3 0.7 2.5 14.2 2.0

108.7 2.4 8.3 1.1 100.5 2.5 8.8 7.5 24.4 1.1 3.3 16.9 3.8 0.7 1.5 4.2 4.4 11.5 8.1 19.4 1.1 13.1 0.3 3.4 1.8 0.7 -2.1 14.4 1.3

111.1 2.2 8.4 1.9 102.7 2.2 9.3 5.4 24.5 0.8 3.4 17.0 3.8 0.7 2.8 4.4 3.7 11.9 3.6 19.8 2.4 13.2 1.2 3.4 1.4 0.8 11.6 14.6 1.5

344.3 1.3 130.0 -1.2 6.4 1067.3 1066.7 1.0

349.7 1.6 132.7 2.0 5.8 1410.8 1407.7 3.0

355.7 1.7 136.1 2.6 5.1 1987.3 1805.4 182.0

361.8 1.7 137.6 1.1 5.3 2916.9 2577.2 340.0

368.1 1.7 140.7 2.2 5.3 3140.9 2897.6 243.0

374.5 1.7 144.7 2.8 5.3 3286.6 3034.7 252.0

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

334.5 0.5 130.5 -0.4 10.2 408.0 406.0 2.0

336.3 0.6 130.8 0.2 8.5 597.6 582.0 16.0

339.7 1.0 131.6 0.7 7.3 735.8 696.6 39.0

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

67

OCALA

Quarterly Outlook for Ocala, FL October 2017 Irma 2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

2020Q1

2020Q2

2020Q3

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

12.7 3.6 4.3 8.4 11.4 1.9

12.8 3.8 4.3 8.5 11.4 2.3

13 4.3 4.4 8.6 11.6 2.9

13.3 5.2 4.5 8.8 11.8 3.7

13.5 6.5 4.6 8.9 11.9 4.8

13.8 7.9 4.7 9.2 12.1 6.1

14.1 8.4 4.7 9.4 12.4 6.4

14.4 8.8 4.8 9.6 12.6 6.8

14.8 9.2 4.9 9.9 12.8 7.1

15.1 9 5 10.1 13 6.8

15.4 8.8 5 10.4 13.2 6.6

15.7 8.5 5.1 10.6 13.3 6.2

16 8.1 5.2 10.8 13.5 5.7

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

35.6 31.9 41.3 -0.2

35.8 32 41.5 1.6

36.3 32.3 41.9 2.4

36.8 32.6 42.3 2.8

37.3 32.9 42.7 3.4

38 33.3 43.2 4.1

38.7 33.8 43.6 4.1

39.3 34.2 44 4.1

40 34.6 44.5 4.2

40.7 35 44.9 4.1

41.3 35.4 45.4 4.1

41.9 35.7 45.8 4

42.5 36 46.3 4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

103.3 1.9 8.1 3.2

103.7 1.2 8.1 2.2

105.1 2.1 8.2 1.6

106 2.8 8.2 1.4

106.6 3.2 8.2 0.3

107.2 3.4 8.2 0.1

107.9 2.7 8.2 0.4

108.5 2.3 8.2 0.6

109 2.2 8.3 1.3

109.6 2.2 8.3 2.3

110.2 2.1 8.4 2.4

110.9 2.2 8.4 2.2

111.4 2.2 8.4 1.9

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

95.1 1.8

95.6 1.1

96.9 2.2

97.8 2.9

98.4 3.4

99.1 3.6

99.7 2.9

100.2 2.5

100.7 2.3

101.3 2.2

101.8 2.1

102.5 2.2

103 2.3

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.7 9.2 23.8 2.1

8 10.9 23.9 0.6

8 9.2 24 0.4

8.1 7.2 24 1.5

8.2 7.3 24.1 1.3

8.4 5 24.2 1.1

8.6 6.9 24.3 1.3

8.7 7.7 24.3 1.3

8.9 7.9 24.4 1.1

9 7.5 24.4 0.8

9.1 6.3 24.5 0.7

9.2 5.8 24.5 0.6

9.3 5.1 24.6 0.8

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.2 16.9 3.6

3.2 17.1 3.6

3.2 17 3.7

3.2 16.8 3.7

3.3 16.8 3.7

3.3 16.8 3.7

3.3 16.9 3.7

3.3 16.9 3.8

3.3 16.8 3.8

3.3 16.8 3.8

3.4 16.9 3.8

3.4 17 3.8

3.4 17 3.8

0.7 -12.4 3.8 -0.4

0.7 -12.6 3.8 -0.8

0.7 -15 3.9 2.4

0.7 -4.7 4 5.8

0.7 -2.6 4.1 7.4

0.7 -1.5 4.1 9.3

0.7 1.8 4.1 6.3

0.7 2.3 4.2 4.1

0.7 0.8 4.2 3.8

0.7 1 4.3 3.8

0.7 2.1 4.3 3.8

0.7 2.8 4.3 3.8

0.7 3.2 4.4 3.8

10 2.7 18.8 2.4 12.5 -1.5

10 1.5 19 1.6 12.1 -4.5

10.3 1 19 1.2 12.8 3.2

10.5 3.5 19.1 2 13.1 4

10.7 7.3 19.2 2.3 13.1 4.9

11 9 19.3 1.6 13.1 8.5

11.2 9.5 19.3 1.2 13.1 2.3

11.4 8.6 19.3 1.1 13.1 0.1

11.6 7.7 19.4 1 13 -0.6

11.7 6.5 19.5 1.3 13.1 -0.4

11.7 4.4 19.6 1.8 13.1 0.2

11.8 3.4 19.8 2.3 13.2 1

11.9 3.3 19.9 2.7 13.3 1.7

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

3.2 2.7 0.7 3.3

3.3 2.3 0.8 6.9

3.3 2.6 0.8 8.5

3.3 3.8 0.7 5.9

3.3 3.9 0.7 0.1

3.4 2.9 0.7 -4

3.4 2.1 0.7 -7.5

3.4 1.8 0.7 -3.7

3.4 1.6 0.7 0.3

3.4 1.4 0.7 2.5

3.4 1.4 0.8 10.9

3.4 1.4 0.9 22.7

3.4 1.3 0.8 11.4

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

14 0.4

14.1 1.5

14.2 3.1

14.2 1.8

14.2 1.7

14.3 1.4

14.3 1.1

14.4 1.2

14.4 1.5

14.5 1.6

14.6 1.7

14.6 1.5

14.7 1.4

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

356.5 1.7

358.1 1.8

359.5 1.7

361 1.7

362.6 1.7

364.1 1.7

365.7 1.7

367.3 1.7

368.9 1.7

370.5 1.8

372.1 1.8

373.7 1.7

375.3 1.7

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%)

135.8 2.3 4.9

136.3 1.1 4.9

136.8 0.2 5.1

137.3 1 5.3

137.9 1.5 5.5

138.6 1.7 5.4

139.4 1.9 5.2

140.2 2.1 5.3

141.2 2.4 5.3

142.1 2.6 5.4

143.2 2.7 5.4

144.2 2.9 5.3

145.2 2.8 5.3

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

1916 1717 199

2329 2040 289

2703 2347 355

2880 2506 374

3026 2690 336

3058 2766 293

3078 2820 258

3124 2891 232

3163 2922 240

3200 2957 243

3242 2993 249

3272 3023 249

3313 3058 254

Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

68

Florida & Metro Forecast / October 2017

ORLANDO – KISSIMMEE – SANFORD

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Orlando–Kissimmee–Sanford MSA is comprised of Lake, Orange, Osceola and Seminole Counties. Located in the southern center of the state, this area is home to numerous tourist attractions such as Walt Disney World, Universal Studios and Sea World. It is also home to the Orlando Magic and the Orlando City Soccer Club. Orlando hosts many conventions utilizing some of the biggest hotels in the country and America’s second largest convention center. The University of Central Florida, the nation’s second largest university, and many other places of higher education also reside in the MSA.

The Orlando–Kissimmee–Sanford Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show varying strengths and weaknesses in the economic indicators relative to the other MSAs studied. Personal income growth is expected to average 6.5 percent each year.

Real per capita income levels should average $38,300.

Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.0 percent. Average annual wage levels should be at $52,300. Population growth is expected to be an average of 2.1 percent, and the Gross Metro Product level is expected to average 132,670.49 million dollars.

Employment growth is forecasted to average 3.0 percent each year. The metro will see an average unemployment rate of 3.9 percent.

Construction and Mining is expected to be the fastest growing sector in the area, averaging 7.5 percent growth annually. The Professional and Business Services sector will see the second highest average annual growth rate at 5.7 percent, followed by the Financial and Other Services sectors at 4.0 and 2.7 percent average annual growth, respectively. None of the sectors are expected to experience a decline.

QUICK FACTS: • •

•

•

•

• •

MSA population estimate of 2,267,846 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

Lake County population estimate of 308,034 as of July 1, 2013 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission).

Orange County population estimate of 1,224,267 as of July 1, 2013 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission).

Osceola County population estimate of 298,504 as of July 1, 2013 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission).

Seminole County population estimate of 436,041 as of July 1, 2013 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission).

Civilian labor force of 1,307,053 in August 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

An unemployment rate of 3.8% as of August 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 49,970 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database).

TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: • Walt Disney World Resort – 74,000 • Universal Orlando (Comcast) – 21,000 • Florida Hospital (Adventist Health) – 20,413 • Publix – 19,783 • Orlando International Airport – 18,000 • Orlando Health – 16,828 • University of Central Florida – 11,833 • Lockheed Martin – 7,000 • Darden Restaurants – 6,149 • SeaWorld Parks & Entertainment – 6,032 • Rosen Hotels & Resorts – 4,526 Source: Orlando Economic Partnership

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Lockheed Martin, L3 Technologies land $16M contracts with local work • On July 11, Lockheed Martin won a $7.2 million contract with the U.S. Air Force, to be completed on September 29, 2018.

• Lockheed will be providing logistics support for a Common Organizational Level Tester (COLT) system, creating program management, engineering, depot repair, and modification work in Orlando.

• L3 Technologies landed a $8.7 million U.S. Navy contract to install 96 automatic dependent surveillance broadcast avionics kits with a May 2018 completion date.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, July 12, 2017

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

69

ORLANDO – KISSIMMEE – SANFORD

State OKs new 100-bed UCF Lake Nona teaching hospital; construction to start within 18 months • The University of Central Florida’s College of Medicine campus in Lake Nona is currently home to two facilities for classrooms and research but will be expanding with the addition of a new 100-bed teaching hospital.

• This new hospital will be used to train thirdand fourth- year medical students, provide more medical residency program opportunities, and allow UCF to do more clinical research.

• UCF and HCA Healthcare will begin construction on this project within the next 18 months; the facility is slated to be open for patients by the end of 2020.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, July 27, 2017 $1 billion master plan goes vertical in west Orange County • Construction has begun on the $1 billion, 640acre Hamlin community project.

• This community will include a town center, a marina with a boardwalk, walking and biking trails, and waterfront parks. The project also features over 1.5 million square feet of commercial space and 1,500 homes.

• There is already a nearly completed 55,000-square-foot Publix with a 316-unit apartment complex being built across the way; Starbucks and Wendy’s are also among the future tenants of the complex.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, August 15, 2017 5 new Lake Nona-area lakefront medical office buildings planned • Florida Engineering Group, Inc. is moving forward with its plans to construct the Orlando Medical Office Center in Lake Nona.

• The office center will be comprised of three medical office buildings, totaling 23,894 square feet and spanning across 3 acres.

70

Florida & Metro Forecast / October 2017

• This project is predicted to create around 36 temporary construction jobs, in addition to an unknown number of permanent jobs once the facilities open.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, August 25, 2017 Orlando Health seeks OK to move forward with $90M Horizon West hospital • Orlando Health is looking to expand with a $90 million, 103-bed hospital bed tower in the Town Center of Horizon West.

• The bed tower will be the second phase of the 74-acre Orlando Health Central Porter Road Medical Campus, which includes a $45 million, 70,000-square-foot freestanding emergency department, labs, physician offices for primary care doctors and specialists, and outpatient diagnostics.

• Phase 1 is scheduled to be completed within the fourth quarter of 2018. If approved, Phase 2 will begin development in the first quarter of 2018 and be operational in 2019.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, September 14, 2017 Hurricane Irma: By the numbers • Hurricane Irma devastated the state of Florida, with many hours and dollars being spent on cleanup and recovery efforts—in some areas more than others.

• For Orange County alone, there is an estimated damage assessment of $25 million from businesses and residential properties and this number is expected to increase.

• There were over 500 reports of structural or electrical damage to homes and businesses in Orlando, accompanied by a total of 370 fallen trees, 70 of which involved power lines.

• Orlando International Airport also had to shut down its operations because of the storm, losing a total of $20 million.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, September 13, 2017

ORLANDO – KISSIMMEE – SANFORD Orlando - Kissimmee MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government

0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Orlando Unemployment Rate (Percent)

12.0%

0.6

0.8

1.2

1.4

1.6

Orlando Real Gross Metro Product 300000.0

(Millions 2009 $)

250000.0

10.0%

200000.0

8.0% 6.0%

150000.0

4.0%

100000.0

2.0%

1

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 FL Unemployment Rate Orlando Unemployment Rate

50000.0

Orlando Real Personal Income

Orlando Payroll Employment 2000.0

(Thousands)

1800.0 1600.0 1400.0 1200.0 1000.0 800.0

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Orlando Payroll Employment

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Gross Metro Product

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0%

(Percent Change Year Ago)

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Personal Income

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

71

ORLANDO – KISSIMMEE – SANFORD

Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL October 2017 Irma 2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

78.3 3.6 46.1 32.1 74.5 1.9 35.1 33.4 44.5 2.8

80.6 3.0 48.1 32.5 75.7 1.6 35.4 33.3 44.9 0.9

86.2 7.0 51.4 34.8 79.7 5.3 37.0 34.2 46.2 2.7

92.2 7.0 55.5 36.8 85.0 6.6 38.6 35.6 47.7 3.4

97.7 5.9 59.4 38.3 89.1 4.8 39.9 36.4 49.0 2.7

102.2 4.6 62.1 40.1 91.7 2.9 40.8 36.6 49.7 1.4

108.6 6.3 66.3 42.3 96.0 4.7 42.4 37.5 51.2 3.0

117.3 8.0 70.8 46.5 101.7 5.9 44.9 38.9 53.1 3.8

125.7 7.2 75.0 50.7 106.7 4.9 47.2 40.0 55.1 3.6

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 1031.5 1065.3 1108.8 2.6 3.3 4.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 38.0 38.2 39.6 Manufacturing -0.1 0.5 3.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 993.6 1027.2 1069.2 Nonmanufacturing 2.7 3.4 4.1 Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining 46.2 51.2 55.9 2.2 10.8 9.3 Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities 198.0 204.3 212.8 3.2 3.2 4.1 Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade 39.0 40.1 41.9 Retail Trade 128.1 132.9 138.6 30.9 31.3 32.3 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information 23.6 23.6 23.9 -1.7 -0.2 1.3 Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities 67.2 69.7 70.4 2.1 3.7 0.9 Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services 169.2 175.6 183.5 4.6 3.8 4.5 Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services 128.1 131.4 135.7 3.7 2.6 3.3 Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality 210.1 218.6 231.0 3.3 4.0 5.7 Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services 34.8 36.0 38.0 -4.7 3.3 5.6 Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government 12.3 12.4 12.6 2.7 0.6 1.6 Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government 104.0 104.5 105.5 0.8 0.6 0.9 Pct Chg Year Ago

1157.5 4.4 41.0 3.5 1116.5 4.4 61.0 9.0 220.9 3.8 43.4 142.7 34.8 24.0 0.6 71.1 1.1 194.9 6.2 143.2 5.5 240.2 4.0 41.0 8.0 12.9 2.8 107.3 1.7

1206.3 4.2 42.4 3.6 1163.9 4.2 68.0 11.6 227.2 2.8 44.2 145.5 37.5 23.8 -0.8 74.1 4.1 205.3 5.3 148.4 3.6 249.7 4.0 44.2 7.6 14.0 8.4 109.2 1.8

1244.6 3.2 44.4 4.5 1200.2 3.1 74.0 8.8 234.6 3.3 46.9 149.5 38.0 23.4 -1.8 78.2 5.6 211.2 2.9 150.9 1.7 258.6 3.6 45.8 3.7 14.6 4.5 108.9 -0.3

1289.8 3.6 45.0 1.4 1244.8 3.7 79.4 7.3 237.5 1.2 47.7 148.6 38.5 23.2 -0.8 82.5 5.5 224.7 6.4 154.3 2.3 270.2 4.5 47.6 3.9 14.7 0.2 110.8 1.7

1328.1 3.0 45.6 1.3 1282.5 3.0 85.8 8.1 240.3 1.2 49.1 148.8 39.3 23.6 1.9 84.8 2.8 246.0 9.5 155.9 1.0 271.2 0.4 48.5 1.8 14.5 -1.4 112.0 1.1

1358.0 2.3 46.4 1.9 1311.6 2.3 90.9 6.0 242.2 0.8 50.3 150.0 39.8 24.2 2.3 86.6 2.2 255.9 4.0 159.2 2.1 274.6 1.3 49.1 1.3 15.3 5.5 113.5 1.3

2389.5 2.5 1219.1 1.2 5.1 19275.3 12022.1 7253.0

2448.5 2.5 1254.8 2.9 4.5 21558.1 14590.0 6968.0

2505.5 2.3 1299.5 3.6 3.9 18994.6 14726.3 4268.0

2560.4 2.2 1312.4 1.0 4.0 23053.7 16100.5 6953.0

2612.8 2.0 1332.3 1.5 3.9 24128.5 16417.3 7711.0

2664.4 2.0 1357.3 1.9 3.9 25557.2 17096.8 8460.0

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

72

2231.4 2.2 1162.7 1.4 8.4 10927.1 7240.2 3687.0

Florida & Metro Forecast / October 2017

2276.9 2.0 1179.1 1.4 7.0 14845.3 9064.2 5781.0

2330.8 2.4 1204.1 2.1 6.0 14473.0 9695.0 4778.0

ORLANDO – KISSIMMEE – SANFORD

Quarterly Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL October 2017 Irma 2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

2020Q1

2020Q2

2020Q3

102.7 3.4 62.5 40.2 92 1.7

103.2 4.1 62.7 40.5 92.2 2.6

105.5 4.7 64.4 41.1 94 3.2

107.5 5.5 65.8 41.7 95.3 4

109.5 6.6 66.9 42.6 96.6 5

111.7 8.2 68.1 43.6 98.1 6.4

114.1 8.1 69.3 44.8 99.7 6.1

116.2 8.1 70.3 45.8 101 6

118.4 8.1 71.3 47.1 102.4 6

120.4 7.8 72.3 48.1 103.6 5.6

122.6 7.5 73.4 49.3 104.9 5.3

124.7 7.4 74.5 50.3 106.2 5.1

126.8 7.1 75.6 51.2 107.3 4.8

40.9 36.6 49.9 0.2

40.9 36.5 50 1.9

41.5 37 50.5 2.5

42.1 37.3 51 2.6

42.7 37.6 51.4 3.1

43.3 38 51.9 3.9

44 38.4 52.4 3.8

44.6 38.8 52.9 3.8

45.2 39.1 53.4 3.8

45.8 39.4 53.9 3.7

46.4 39.7 54.3 3.7

46.9 39.9 54.8 3.6

47.5 40.2 55.3 3.6

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

1247.5 2.7 44.8 4.3

1249.3 2.2 44.8 5

1271.2 2.7 44.8 1.9

1285.9 3.4 45 2.5

1295.8 3.9 45 0.6

1306.3 4.6 45 0.5

1317.2 3.6 45.2 0.8

1325 3 45.4 0.9

1331.5 2.8 45.7 1.4

1338.6 2.5 46 2.1

1345.3 2.1 46.2 2.3

1354.9 2.3 46.4 2.1

1362.2 2.3 46.5 1.8

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

1202.7 2.7

1204.5 2.1

1226.4 2.7

1240.9 3.4

1250.8 4

1261.3 4.7

1272 3.7

1279.6 3.1

1285.8 2.8

1292.6 2.5

1299 2.1

1308.6 2.3

1315.7 2.3

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

73.9 7.1 234.3 2.5

77.2 11.1 235.8 2.9

77.8 8.2 236.4 1.2

78.6 8.1 237 1

79.7 7.8 237.8 1.5

81.4 5.4 238.7 1.2

83.4 7.2 239.7 1.4

85.1 8.2 240.2 1.3

86.6 8.7 240.6 1.2

88.1 8.2 240.9 0.9

89.3 7.1 241.5 0.8

90.4 6.3 241.8 0.6

91.4 5.6 242.5 0.8

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

46.8 149 37.8

47.3 150.7 38

47.3 149.7 38.2

47.5 148.7 38.5

47.8 148 38.6

48.3 148.2 38.8

48.7 149 39.1

49 149 39.2

49.2 148.7 39.4

49.4 148.6 39.5

49.8 149.3 39.6

50.1 149.7 39.7

50.5 150.2 39.9

23.5 -1.8 79.1 6.3

23.5 -0.8 79 5.2

23 -1.4 80.9 6.3

23 -1.4 82.4 4.9

23.3 -0.6 83 4.9

23.5 0.1 83.6 5.9

23.5 2.3 84.1 3.9

23.5 2.5 84.5 2.6

23.6 1.4 85 2.4

23.8 1.4 85.5 2.3

24 2 86 2.2

24.1 2.2 86.3 2.1

24.2 2.5 86.8 2.2

210.9 1.5 151.1 1.3 260.2 4.1

211.1 1 152.8 1.7 253.8 -0.2

215.8 1.9 153.5 2.1 266.4 2.9

222.3 5.4 154 3.2 270.7 3.4

227.4 7.8 154.6 2.3 271.8 4.5

233.3 10.5 155.1 1.5 272 7.2

240.3 11.3 155.1 1 271.8 2

245 10.2 155.5 1 271.1 0.2

248.2 9.2 156 0.9 270.6 -0.4

250.6 7.4 156.8 1.1 271.3 -0.3

252 4.9 157.6 1.6 272.4 0.2

254.3 3.8 158.7 2 273.9 1

257.4 3.7 159.8 2.4 275.3 1.7

45.9 3.3 14.7 3.5

46.6 4.9 14.9 3.3

47.1 4.8 14.9 2.9

47.5 3.9 14.7 1.4

47.7 4 14.6 -0.7

48 3 14.5 -2.6

48.2 2.2 14.5 -2.9

48.4 1.9 14.5 -1.8

48.6 1.7 14.5 -0.6

48.7 1.5 14.5 -0.3

48.9 1.4 14.4 -0.8

49 1.4 16.8 16.1

49.2 1.2 15.4 6.6

109.3 -0.7

109.9 0.4

110.4 2.2

110.7 1.9

110.9 1.4

111.2 1.2

111.4 1

111.8 1.1

112.2 1.2

112.6 1.2

112.9 1.3

113.3 1.3

113.7 1.3

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2512.7 2.3

2526.6 2.3

2540.5 2.3

2553.9 2.2

2567 2.2

2580 2.1

2593.3 2.1

2606.4 2.1

2619.4 2

2632.2 2

2645.1 2

2658 2

2670.9 2

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%)

1301.3 3.5 3.7

1303.5 2.8 3.7

1307 1.1 3.8

1310.1 0.8 4

1313.8 1 4.1

1318.7 1.2 4

1323.8 1.3 3.9

1328.9 1.4 3.9

1335.1 1.6 3.9

1341.3 1.7 3.9

1347.8 1.8 3.9

1354.4 1.9 3.9

1360.5 1.9 3.9

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

16039 13972 2067

18467 14698 3770

21800 15748 6052

23309 15973 7336

23685 16388 7297

23421 16293 7128

23510 16226 7284

23977 16303 7674

24360 16475 7885

24667 16666 8001

25067 16826 8241

25349 17017 8331

25908 17244 8665

Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

73

P A L M B AY – M E L B O U R N E – T I T U S V I L L E

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville MSA is comprised of Brevard County only. Typically known as “Florida’s Space Coast”, this area is home to the Kennedy Space Center. Located in the central part of Florida’s east coast, the region is home to Cape Canaveral Air Force Base, Patrick Air Force Base and government contractors such as Harris Corporation.

Like much of Florida, this area is growing fast; Port Canaveral is now a leading cruise ship port.

The Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show varying strengths and weaknesses in the economic indicators relative to the other MSAs studied. Personal income growth is expected to average 6.1 percent each year.

Real per capita income levels should average $40,200.

Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.2 percent. Average annual wage levels should be at $54,100. Population growth is expected to be an average of 1.3 percent, and the Gross Metro Product level is expected to average 20,688.52 million dollars.

Employment growth is forecasted to average 2.4 percent each year. The metro will see an average unemployment rate of 4.5 percent.

Construction and Mining is expected to be the fastest growing sector in the area, averaging 8.3 percent growth annually. The Professional and Business Services sector will see the second highest average annual growth rate at 5.4 percent, followed by the Financial and Manufacturing sectors at 2.8 and 2.2 percent average annual growth, respectively. None of the sectors are expected to experience a decline.

QUICK FACTS: •

Population estimate of 550,823 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

•

Civilian labor force of 271,683 in August 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

•

An unemployment rate of 4.3% as of August 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 11,613 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database).

TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: •

Brevard County School Board – 9,520

•

Health First, Inc. – 7,800

•

Harris Corporation – 5,890

•

Brevard County Government – 2,380

•

Department of Defense – 2,170

•

NASA – 2,067

•

Eastern Florida State College – 1,590

•

Rockwell Collins Inc. – 1,410

•

Florida Institute Of Technology – 1,280

•

Northrop Grumman Corporation – 1,345

•

Brevard County Sheriff Office – 1,175

•

Parrish Medical Center – 1,075

•

Wuesthoff Medical Center – 1,055

Source: Brevard Economic Development Council, 2011

74

Florida & Metro Forecast / October 2017

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Brevard tourism officials seek revamp of tax on hotel rooms • Brevard County’s five percent Tourist Development tax on hotel rooms and other shortterm rentals is being re-evaluated by the Space Coast Office of Tourism.

• Office of Tourism Executive Director Eric Garvey proposes funneling a larger portion of the tax toward promotional efforts for the county, as well as upgrades to tourist attractions such as the Brevard Zoo. • The proposal does not seek to raise or lower the tax, which has stood at 5 percent since 2005.

Source: Florida Today, August 1, 2017

P A L M B AY – M E L B O U R N E – T I T U S V I L L E

Major pro surfing storms back to Brevard, Sebastian Inlet • Following a worldwide resurgence of professional surfing, two pro surfing events are set to hit Florida this winter: Brevard County’s Quiksilver King of the Peak contest and Sebastian Inlet’s World Qualifying Series event.

• Pro surfing appeared to be a thing of the past after the recession hit, as many companies related to the sport either went under or have reported losses. As the nation and the sport make a comeback, many are excited about the prospects for Florida’s Atlantic coast.

• The pro surfing industry as a whole is still struggling to find sponsorship money, but surfers are optimistic that as popularity grows, money will follow.

Source: Florida Today, August 5, 2017 Brevard Commission changes course, supports moratorium on medical marijuana dispensaries • Despite voting 3-1 in July to begin the process of allowing medical marijuana facilities in unincorporated areas of Brevard County with “General Retail Commercial, Business 1” zoning, county commissioners voted 4-1 to begin establishing a moratorium so they can create a new zoning classification.

• Commissioners made the change after realizing how unrestricted the Business 1 zoning classification is. Retail pharmacies operate under this classification, which allows businesses to be established near homes and churches.

Brevard commissioners OK $8.4 million in posthurricane beach restoration • Two stretches of Brevard County beach are set to be restored after sustaining damage from Hurricane Irma’s wind and waves.

• Most of the $8.4 million price tag will be footed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the Florida Department of Emergency Management, with $1.05 million being drawn from Brevard’s 5% Tourist Development Tax on hotels and short-term rentals.

• In some areas, erosion has caused 12-to-14-foot cliffs in sand dunes, which poses a threat to beachside structures.

Source: Florida Today, September 19, 2017 Palm Bay talks restoration, recovery after Irma • After a Hurricane-Irma-induced tornado touched down in Palm Bay, officials urged patience as the city brought services and utilities back online.

• Heavy flooding was also an issue in Palm Bay, as a clog occurred at one of the city’s main canals. The storm also overwhelmed many of the city’s lift stations, although wastewater officials confirmed that this issue would be resolved shortly.

• Six mobile homes were destroyed in the area, and 19 other residences sustained damage as a result of the tornado.

Source: Florida Today, September 11, 2017

• Incorporated cities and towns in Brevard will make their own decisions regarding dispensary implementation.

Source: Florida Today, August 22, 2017

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

75

P A L M B AY – M E L B O U R N E – T I T U S V I L L E Palm Bay - Melbourne - Titusville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government

0

0.5

Florida & Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(Percent)

1

1.5

40000.0

30000.0 25000.0

6.0%

15000.0

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 FL Unemployment Rate Palm Bay Unemployment Rate

10000.0

(Thousands)

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Gross Metro Product

Palm Bay Real Personal Income

Palm Bay Payroll Employment 8.0%

(Percent Change Year Ago)

6.0%

280.0

4.0%

260.0

2.0%

240.0

0.0%

220.0

-2.0%

200.0

-4.0%

76

(Millions 2009 $)

20000.0

4.0%

180.0

3

35000.0

8.0%

300.0

2.5

Palm Bay Real Gross Metro Product

10.0%

2.0%

2

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Palm Bay Payroll Employment

Florida & Metro Forecast / October 2017

-6.0%

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Personal Income

P A L M B AY – M E L B O U R N E – T I T U S V I L L E

Annual Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL October 2017 Irma 2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

20.9 -0.4 9.3 11.5 19.9 -2.1 38.0 36.2 47.5 0.0

21.0 0.5 9.4 11.6 19.7 -0.8 38.0 35.7 48.0 1.0

21.8 4.1 9.5 12.3 20.2 2.5 39.1 36.1 47.8 -0.5

23.0 5.4 10.1 12.9 21.2 5.1 40.4 37.3 49.4 3.4

24.1 4.6 10.7 13.4 22.0 3.5 41.5 37.9 50.5 2.2

25.0 4.0 11.2 13.9 22.5 2.3 42.5 38.2 51.2 1.2

26.4 5.5 11.8 14.6 23.3 3.9 44.3 39.2 52.8 3.3

28.5 7.7 12.6 15.8 24.7 5.7 47.2 40.9 55.1 4.3

30.5 7.2 13.4 17.1 25.9 5.0 50.0 42.5 57.4 4.2

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 193.6 193.0 197.0 0.0 -0.3 2.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 20.9 20.1 20.1 Manufacturing 0.7 -3.8 -0.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 172.7 172.9 176.9 Nonmanufacturing -0.1 0.1 2.3 Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining 8.4 9.1 9.9 3.1 8.8 8.3 Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities 34.9 35.0 35.7 1.7 0.1 2.0 Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade 5.2 5.5 5.5 Retail Trade 25.5 25.6 26.7 4.2 3.9 3.5 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information 2.3 2.1 2.4 -2.5 -5.9 11.0 Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities 7.6 7.5 7.3 1.4 -2.2 -2.6 Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services 28.2 27.4 28.5 -7.7 -2.7 3.7 Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services 32.8 32.8 33.2 0.1 0.1 1.0 Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality 22.7 23.0 24.0 5.4 1.1 4.4 Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services 7.4 7.5 7.9 0.9 1.6 6.3 Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government 6.2 6.2 6.1 -2.1 -0.7 -1.3 Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government 22.2 22.3 22.0 0.8 0.7 -1.2 Pct Chg Year Ago

201.7 2.4 21.0 4.5 180.8 2.2 11.1 12.4 36.1 1.2 5.1 27.6 3.4 2.3 -3.9 7.2 -0.7 28.9 1.7 33.8 2.0 25.5 6.4 7.9 0.0 6.2 1.3 21.6 -1.8

209.2 3.7 22.4 6.6 186.9 3.4 12.4 11.7 36.6 1.5 5.0 28.1 3.4 2.2 -1.8 7.6 5.7 29.8 2.9 35.2 4.1 26.5 4.1 8.5 7.4 6.3 1.4 21.6 -0.2

215.5 3.0 23.4 4.7 192.1 2.8 14.0 12.3 37.3 1.8 5.1 28.6 3.6 2.3 3.0 7.8 1.7 30.8 3.3 36.1 2.6 27.0 1.7 8.8 3.0 6.4 1.2 21.8 0.8

221.5 2.8 23.6 1.0 197.8 3.0 15.2 8.5 37.5 0.5 5.2 28.2 3.6 2.3 -1.7 8.1 4.0 32.9 7.0 36.8 1.8 27.8 3.1 9.0 2.6 6.3 -1.3 22.0 1.1

226.3 2.2 23.9 1.3 202.3 2.3 16.2 7.2 37.6 0.4 5.4 28.0 3.7 2.3 1.1 8.3 3.2 35.6 8.0 37.1 0.7 27.8 0.0 9.1 0.6 6.1 -2.1 22.2 0.9

230.2 1.7 24.4 1.7 205.8 1.7 17.1 5.1 37.7 0.1 5.5 28.0 3.7 2.3 1.5 8.5 2.3 36.7 3.0 37.8 1.9 28.0 0.7 9.1 0.2 6.3 2.7 22.5 1.1

569.4 1.9 256.1 -0.7 5.9 1881.6 1633.4 248.0

580.3 1.9 262.0 2.3 5.2 2297.3 2100.9 196.0

588.6 1.4 270.2 3.2 4.5 2489.8 2224.5 265.0

595.7 1.2 275.1 1.8 4.5 3986.2 3283.2 703.0

602.7 1.2 281.7 2.4 4.5 4673.3 3726.7 947.0

610.1 1.2 289.0 2.6 4.4 4972.7 3925.4 1047.0

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

548.2 0.6 262.7 -0.9 9.4 1120.7 1115.9 5.0

552.2 0.7 258.6 -1.6 8.3 1351.5 1335.9 16.0

558.9 1.2 258.1 -0.2 7.0 1268.6 1230.3 38.0

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

77

P A L M B AY – M E L B O U R N E – T I T U S V I L L E

Quarterly Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL October 2017 Irma 2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

2020Q1

2020Q2

2020Q3

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

25.2 3.1 11.3 13.9 22.6 1.4

25.3 3.7 11.3 14 22.6 2.2

25.8 4.3 11.6 14.2 22.9 2.9

26.2 4.9 11.8 14.4 23.2 3.4

26.6 5.7 11.9 14.7 23.5 4

27.1 7 12.1 15 23.8 5.2

27.7 7.4 12.3 15.3 24.2 5.4

28.2 7.7 12.5 15.7 24.5 5.7

28.7 8 12.7 16 24.9 5.9

29.2 7.8 12.9 16.3 25.2 5.6

29.8 7.6 13.1 16.7 25.5 5.3

30.3 7.5 13.3 17 25.8 5.2

30.8 7.1 13.5 17.3 26 4.8

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

42.7 38.3 51.3 0

42.9 38.3 51.5 1.8

43.4 38.7 52 2.6

44 39 52.6 2.9

44.6 39.3 53.1 3.4

45.3 39.8 53.6 4.1

46.1 40.3 54.2 4.2

46.8 40.7 54.8 4.3

47.6 41.2 55.4 4.3

48.3 41.5 55.9 4.3

49 41.9 56.5 4.3

49.7 42.3 57.1 4.1

50.4 42.6 57.7 4.1

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

216.4 2.3 23.5 4

217.2 2.1 23.5 2.4

219.3 2.8 23.6 1.2

221 2.7 23.6 1.6

222.1 2.7 23.7 0.7

223.4 2.9 23.7 0.7

224.8 2.5 23.8 0.9

225.9 2.2 23.9 0.9

226.7 2.1 24 1.4

227.7 1.9 24.2 2

228.4 1.6 24.2 2

230.1 1.9 24.3 1.9

230.8 1.8 24.4 1.7

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

192.9 2.1

193.7 2.1

195.8 3

197.3 2.8

198.5 2.9

199.7 3.1

201.1 2.7

202 2.4

202.7 2.1

203.5 1.9

204.1 1.5

205.8 1.9

206.4 1.8

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

14.2 11.8 37.3 1

14.8 14.1 37.4 2.1

14.9 13 37.4 0.6

15 9.7 37.4 0.6

15.2 7 37.5 0.5

15.5 4.9 37.5 0.3

15.9 6.7 37.6 0.5

16.1 7.3 37.6 0.5

16.4 7.5 37.6 0.4

16.6 7 37.6 0.1

16.8 6 37.6 0

17 5.4 37.6 -0.1

17.2 4.9 37.7 0.2

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

5.1 28.5 3.6

5.2 28.7 3.6

5.2 28.5 3.6

5.2 28.2 3.6

5.2 28.1 3.6

5.3 28 3.7

5.3 28.1 3.7

5.3 28.1 3.7

5.4 27.9 3.7

5.4 27.9 3.7

5.4 27.9 3.7

5.5 27.9 3.7

5.5 28 3.7

Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

2.3 -0.9 7.8 1

2.3 -0.4 7.8 -0.5

2.2 -3.3 7.9 1.5

2.2 -2.2 8.1 4.1

2.3 -1 8.1 4.8

2.3 -0.5 8.2 5.7

2.3 1.5 8.3 4.3

2.3 1.6 8.3 3

2.3 0.7 8.3 2.8

2.3 0.7 8.4 2.6

2.3 1.2 8.5 2.4

2.3 1.5 8.5 2.3

2.3 1.7 8.5 2.3

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

31 2.5 36.3 1.6 27 1.2

31.1 2.8 36.6 1.8 26.5 -2

31.8 6 36.7 2.4 27.5 1.7

32.6 5.5 36.7 2.2 27.8 2.1

33.3 7.3 36.9 1.6 27.9 3.4

34 9.3 36.9 1.1 27.9 5.3

34.9 9.8 36.9 0.7 27.9 1.3

35.5 8.7 37 0.7 27.8 -0.1

35.8 7.6 37.1 0.6 27.7 -0.7

36.1 6.1 37.2 0.8 27.8 -0.5

36.2 3.9 37.4 1.4 27.9 -0.1

36.5 2.8 37.7 1.8 28 0.5

36.8 2.7 37.9 2.2 28.1 1.1

8.8 3.3 6.4 0.4

8.9 2.8 6.4 0.7

9 3.4 6.4 0.6

9 3.5 6.3 -0.4

9 2.1 6.2 -2.1

9 1.4 6.2 -3.3

9.1 1 6.2 -3.2

9.1 0.7 6.2 -2.4

9.1 0.5 6.1 -1.5

9.1 0.3 6.1 -1.2

9.1 0.3 6 -3.6

9.1 0.2 6.8 10.6

9.1 0.2 6.4 4.6

21.8 0.3

21.9 0.8

22 1.1

22 1.3

22 1.1

22.1 0.9

22.1 0.6

22.2 0.7

22.3 1

22.3 1.1

22.4 1.2

22.4 1.1

22.5 1

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

589.6 1.4

591.3 1.3

593.1 1.2

594.8 1.2

596.5 1.2

598.3 1.2

600 1.2

601.8 1.2

603.6 1.2

605.5 1.2

607.3 1.2

609.2 1.2

611 1.2

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%)

270.2 2.8 4.3

271.6 2.2 4.2

273 1.4 4.4

274.3 1.6 4.6

275.8 2.1 4.7

277.4 2.2 4.5

279.1 2.2 4.4

280.8 2.3 4.4

282.6 2.5 4.5

284.5 2.6 4.5

286.4 2.6 4.5

288.2 2.7 4.4

289.9 2.6 4.4

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

1913 2052 -139

2611 2477 134

3454 2956 498

3922 3189 733

4243 3456 787

4325 3532 794

4465 3606 859

4669 3722 947

4747 3765 982

4812 3814 998

4881 3852 1029

4936 3905 1031

5029 3966 1063

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

78

Florida & Metro Forecast / October 2017

P E N S AC O L A – F E R RY PA S S – B R E N T

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent MSA is comprised of Escambia County and Santa Rosa County. Located in the northwest corner of Florida bordering Alabama, the region is home to the Pensacola Naval Air Station, Blue Angels, and the National Museum of Naval Aviation. This area has been referred to as the “Cradle of Naval Aviation.”

The Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to see low levels of growth in the economic indicators, relative to the twelve other areas studied. Personal income growth is expected to average 5.1 percent each year, the lowest of the twelve studied MSAs. The real per capita income level is expected to average $38,100. The average annual wage growth rate should be 3.0 percent, while the average annual wage level is expected to be $48,500. Population growth will be at an average rate of 0.9 percent, the second lowest of the studied MSAs. The Gross Metro Product is expected to average 15,672.34 million dollars.

Employment growth is expected to average 1.5 percent each year, the lowest of the MSAs. The unemployment rate will average 4.2 percent.

The Construction and Mining sector will be the fastest growing sector in Pensacola, with a 4.8 percent average annual growth rate. The Professional and Business Services sector will follow with an average growth rate of 4.2 percent. The Information and Federal Government sectors are expected to experience negative growth with average annual growth rates of -2.6 and -0.6 percent, respectively.

QUICK FACTS: •

Metro population estimate of 466,913 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

•

Escambia County population estimate of 305,817 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

•

Santa Rosa County population estimate of 161,096 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

•

A civilian labor force of 224,008 in August 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

•

An unemployment rate of 4.0% as of August 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 8,927 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database).

TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: •

Local Government – 13,857

•

Federal Government – 7,162

•

State Government – 5,253

•

Sacred Heart Health System – 5,000

•

Baptist Health Care – 3,163

•

Lakeview – 2,000

•

Ascend Performance Materials – 1,400

•

Gulf Power Company – 1,365

•

West Florida Regional Medical Center – 1,300

•

University of West Florida – 1,231

•

Navy Federal Credit Union – 1,200

Sources: Pensacola Chamber of Commerce, Agency for Workforece Innovation, Company web sites, Reference USA

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES West Florida Hospital unveils new robot technology • On July 27, West Florida Hospital revealed the Da Vinci Xi surgical robotic system as part of the hospital’s Advanced Institute of Minimally Invasive Surgery.

• The benefits of using this new technology include: “shorter hospital stays, less blood loss, fewer complications, less need for narcotic pain medicine, faster recoveries, and smaller incisions.”

• This is not West Florida Hospital AIMIS’ first robotic system for use in surgery. Already in the institute’s possession include the Da Vinci Si system, created by the same company called Intuitive Surgical Inc. that made the newest addition, and the Mazor X system.

Source: Pensacola News Journal, July 28, 2017 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

79

P E N S AC O L A – F E R RY PA S S – B R E N T

Wolfe: Sacred Heart opens new Tiger Point Medical Park • With its third grand opening within a week, Sacred Heart Health System opens the Tiger Park Medical Park. Other grand openings include a pediatric center in Gulf Breeze and the Sacred Heart Medical Park in Perdido Key. • Sacred Heart has especially been expanding in Perdido Key and Cantonment, though they already have over 80 locations throughout Northwest Florida, making it the largest network of primary care in the area.

• The medical park is 28,000 square feet and has a range of services including a walk-in clinic, fullservice laboratories, and specialized physicians for cardiology, endocrinology, orthopedics, and an OB-GYN. Source: Pensacola News Journal, August 13, 2017 Pen Air Federal Credit Union opens latest fullservice branch on Airport Boulevard in Pensacola • On September 7, Pen Air Federal Credit Union opened a new location on Airport Boulevard, making it their 16th full-service branch in operation. The lobby is open Monday-Saturday, though Saturday operates on a different time schedule.

• The branch includes high-tech features such as “interactive video telling machines in the drivethru lanes, free-standing teller pod stations, and member advising offices.”

• President and CEO Stu Ramsey stated, “This flagship location is another way we are providing better banking options for our community, and Pen Air is excited to open our doors today.”

Source: Pensacola News Journal, September 7, 2017 Government Street stormwater project at Corinne Jones Park delayed until September • The Government Street Regional Stormwater Project located at Corinne Jones Park has been delayed multiple times, with the latest projected completion date in September.

• The project’s initial completion date was set for early this year but was later restated to be May 31.

After slight complications with flooding affecting

80

Florida & Metro Forecast / October 2017

the neighborhood sewer system, the date was pushed back to July. In the latter part of August, it was announced construction should be completed in September.

• Continuous construction on the project has affected the surrounding neighborhoods. A local claims tenants who he has leased a nearby house to have moved out due to the noise and traffic created by the construction project.

Source: Pensacola News Journal, August 29, 2017 VT Mobile Aerospace Engineering focused only on first 400 jobs at Pensacola airport • Though the city has expressed an interest in increasing the number of jobs VT Mobile Aerospace Engineering at the Pensacola International Airport brings to the area, VT MAE has confirmed that, for now, it will only focus on the 400 jobs originally agreed upon.

• More jobs could be brought in by VT MAE, but this would require a series of talks between VT MAE and city officials. The confirmed 400 jobs will be used to staff a maintenance, repair, and overhaul hangar.

• VT MAE President Bill Hafner stated, “At this stage, we are focused on the current development and our efforts are concentrated on meeting the existing jobs commitment.”

Source: Pensacola News Journal, September 17, 2017 Gulf Power send 150 people to help restore power in Hurricane Irma’s wake • Gulf Power had sent out a total fleet of 150 workers to help restore power to other areas.

• Gulf Power had first restored power to their own customers. Though it was estimated before Hurricane Irma that about 20,000 Gulf Power customers would lose power, the actual total was 7,300.

• The fleet was sent out towards south Florida and Georgia to help with restoring power to the area.

Jeff Rogers, Gulf Power spokesman, stated, “It’s what we do — we’re there for our neighbors in their time of need and when we need them — they send the troops to us.”

Source: Pensacola News Journal, September 12, 2017

P E N S AC O L A – F E R RY PA S S – B R E N T Pensacola - Ferry Pass - Brent MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation,Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government

0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Pensacola Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(Percent)

0.6

0.8

24000.0

8.0%

18000.0

6.0%

16000.0

4.0%

(Millions 2009 $)

14000.0

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 FL Unemployment Rate Pensacola Unemployment Rate

12000.0

(Thousands)

190.0 180.0 170.0 160.0 150.0 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Pensacola Payroll Employment

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Gross Metro Product

Pensacola Real Personal Income

Pensacola Payroll Employment

140.0

1.4

22000.0 20000.0

200.0

1.2

Pensacola Real Gross Metro Product

10.0%

2.0%

1

8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

(Percent Change Year Ago)

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Personal Income

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

81

P E N S AC O L A – F E R RY PA S S – B R E N T

Annual Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL October 2017 Irma 2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

17.0 2.6 7.3 9.8 16.2 0.9 36.8 35.0 42.1 1.8

17.1 0.1 7.4 9.7 16.0 -1.2 36.4 34.2 42.1 0.0

17.8 4.3 7.6 10.2 16.5 2.7 37.6 34.8 43.3 2.7

18.7 4.9 8.0 10.6 17.2 4.6 39.0 35.9 44.6 3.1

19.4 3.9 8.4 11.0 17.7 2.8 39.9 36.4 45.5 1.9

20.0 3.3 8.7 11.3 18.0 1.6 40.7 36.5 46.0 1.2

20.9 4.5 9.1 11.8 18.5 2.9 42.1 37.3 47.4 3.1

22.3 6.6 9.6 12.7 19.4 4.6 44.6 38.7 49.3 4.0

23.7 6.1 10.1 13.6 20.1 3.9 47.1 39.9 51.2 3.9

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 158.2 159.9 162.9 0.0 1.1 1.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.6 5.9 6.0 Manufacturing 1.2 5.6 2.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 152.6 154.0 156.9 Nonmanufacturing 0.0 0.9 1.8 Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining 9.4 9.2 9.5 -4.0 -2.5 3.6 Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities 30.0 30.4 31.1 0.9 1.2 2.2 Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade 4.9 4.9 5.0 Retail Trade 21.1 21.5 22.0 4.0 4.1 4.1 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information 2.4 2.3 2.3 -12.3 -1.0 -2.5 Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities 9.0 9.9 10.7 3.4 10.0 8.6 Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services 21.3 21.5 21.7 1.3 1.0 0.6 Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services 27.0 26.6 26.8 -1.4 -1.3 0.6 Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality 19.3 20.3 20.9 2.1 5.0 3.2 Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services 5.7 5.7 6.0 -1.6 -0.5 5.2 Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government 6.8 6.6 6.5 -0.8 -2.4 -2.2 Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government 21.6 21.4 21.4 -0.2 -0.8 0.0 Pct Chg Year Ago

167.1 2.6 6.1 1.1 161.0 2.6 10.0 4.5 31.7 2.0 5.1 22.5 4.0 2.2 -3.3 11.7 8.7 22.4 3.4 27.7 3.3 21.6 2.9 5.8 -3.5 6.5 0.5 21.5 0.8

172.5 3.2 6.3 3.6 166.2 3.2 10.7 7.8 32.5 2.5 5.5 23.0 4.1 2.0 -7.2 12.4 6.0 22.4 -0.2 29.0 4.9 22.9 6.2 5.9 2.8 6.6 1.5 21.7 0.7

176.4 2.3 6.2 -1.3 170.2 2.4 11.3 5.4 33.3 2.5 5.7 23.6 4.1 1.9 -7.9 12.8 3.4 23.0 2.8 29.0 -0.1 24.1 5.2 6.0 0.9 6.7 0.8 22.1 2.1

179.3 1.7 6.2 -0.4 173.1 1.7 11.7 3.7 33.2 -0.3 5.7 23.1 4.1 1.8 -3.9 13.3 3.8 24.3 5.7 29.2 0.9 24.6 2.3 6.1 1.8 6.6 -1.5 22.3 0.5

181.7 1.3 6.2 0.6 175.4 1.3 12.5 6.1 33.1 -0.4 5.8 22.9 4.1 1.8 0.4 13.6 2.2 25.8 6.4 29.1 -0.4 24.8 0.6 6.1 0.1 6.4 -2.8 22.3 0.0

183.2 0.9 6.3 1.4 176.9 0.8 13.0 4.1 32.9 -0.7 5.9 22.7 4.1 1.8 1.1 13.8 1.5 26.4 2.2 29.3 0.7 24.9 0.4 6.1 -0.3 6.5 1.1 22.3 0.2

479.2 1.2 211.8 -0.3 5.3 2788.2 2029.2 759.0

486.4 1.5 216.5 2.2 4.8 2931.0 2444.1 487.0

492.3 1.2 221.1 2.1 4.3 2431.4 2435.7 -4.0

496.7 0.9 222.6 0.7 4.3 2490.7 2251.7 239.0

500.2 0.7 225.5 1.3 4.1 2233.3 1915.9 317.0

503.2 0.6 229.0 1.5 4.0 2309.0 1961.4 348.0

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

82

463.2 1.5 212.5 -0.4 8.1 1481.4 1463.1 18.0

Florida & Metro Forecast / October 2017

468.8 1.2 212.0 -0.2 7.0 1984.2 1865.3 119.0

473.4 1.0 212.6 0.3 6.1 1834.7 1663.8 171.0

P E N S AC O L A – F E R RY PA S S – B R E N T

Quarterly Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL October 2017 Irma 2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

2020Q1

2020Q2

2020Q3

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

20.1 2.5 8.7 11.4 18 0.8

20.2 3.2 8.8 11.4 18.1 1.8

20.5 3.3 8.9 11.6 18.2 1.9

20.8 3.9 9.1 11.7 18.4 2.3

21.1 4.8 9.2 11.9 18.6 3.2

21.4 5.9 9.3 12.1 18.8 4.1

21.8 6.4 9.4 12.4 19.1 4.4

22.1 6.6 9.6 12.6 19.3 4.6

22.5 6.8 9.7 12.8 19.5 4.8

22.8 6.6 9.8 13.1 19.6 4.5

23.2 6.4 9.9 13.3 19.8 4.2

23.5 6.3 10 13.5 20 4.1

23.9 6 10.1 13.7 20.2 3.7

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

40.8 36.5 46.2 0.1

40.9 36.5 46.3 1.9

41.4 36.8 46.8 2.5

41.9 37.1 47.2 2.8

42.4 37.4 47.6 3.2

43 37.8 48.1 3.9

43.7 38.2 48.6 3.9

44.3 38.5 49.1 4

45 38.9 49.6 4

45.5 39.2 50 3.9

46.2 39.5 50.5 3.9

46.8 39.8 51 3.8

47.4 40.1 51.5 3.9

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

176.5 1.6 6.2 -1.6

177.1 1.8 6.2 -0.5

178.2 1.6 6.2 -0.6

179.1 1.4 6.2 -0.5

179.7 1.8 6.2 -0.2

180.3 1.8 6.2 -0.3

181.1 1.6 6.2 -0.1

181.6 1.4 6.2 0.1

181.8 1.2 6.2 0.8

182.1 1 6.3 1.6

182.3 0.6 6.3 1.9

183.4 1 6.3 1.7

183.5 1 6.3 1.3

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

170.3 1.7

170.9 1.9

172 1.7

172.9 1.5

173.5 1.9

174.1 1.9

175 1.7

175.4 1.4

175.5 1.2

175.9 1

176 0.6

177.1 1

177.2 0.9

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

11.2 2.8 33.2 1.9

11.6 5.1 33.3 1

11.6 3.1 33.3 -0.2

11.7 2.6 33.2 -0.5

11.8 5.6 33.2 -0.2

12 3.6 33.2 -0.4

12.2 5.5 33.2 -0.2

12.4 6.2 33.1 -0.2

12.5 6.5 33.1 -0.4

12.7 6.1 33 -0.6

12.8 5 32.9 -0.7

12.9 4.4 32.9 -0.9

13 3.9 32.8 -0.6

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

5.7 23.4 4.1

5.7 23.5 4.1

5.7 23.4 4.1

5.7 23.2 4.1

5.7 23 4.1

5.8 23 4.1

5.8 23 4.1

5.8 22.9 4.1

5.8 22.8 4.1

5.8 22.7 4.1

5.8 22.7 4.1

5.9 22.7 4.1

5.9 22.7 4.1

Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

1.9 -6.8 12.8 2.6

1.9 -6.1 12.8 0.8

1.8 -6.1 13.1 2.1

1.8 -5.4 13.3 3.2

1.8 -2.5 13.4 4.5

1.8 -1.7 13.4 5.4

1.8 0.8 13.5 3.5

1.8 1 13.6 2.1

1.8 -0.2 13.6 1.8

1.8 -0.1 13.7 1.7

1.8 0.7 13.7 1.6

1.8 1.1 13.8 1.5

1.8 1.4 13.8 1.5

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

23.2 3.6 29.1 -1.3 24.1 4.3

23.2 4.6 29.2 1.6 23.9 1.2

23.6 4.5 29.2 2.2 24.4 1.3

24.1 5.1 29.2 1 24.6 1.7

24.5 5.8 29.2 0.6 24.7 2.4

24.9 7.2 29.2 0 24.8 3.6

25.4 7.7 29.1 -0.3 24.9 1.8

25.8 6.8 29.1 -0.4 24.8 0.8

26 6 29.1 -0.5 24.7 0

26.1 4.9 29.1 -0.3 24.7 -0.2

26.2 2.9 29.2 0.2 24.8 -0.3

26.3 1.9 29.3 0.6 24.8 0.1

26.5 1.9 29.4 0.9 24.9 0.7

6 1.5 6.7 0.3

6.1 2.6 6.7 1.4

6.1 2.6 6.7 0.9

6.1 2 6.6 -0.2

6.1 1.6 6.5 -2.8

6.1 0.9 6.5 -4

6.1 0.5 6.5 -3.6

6.1 0.2 6.4 -3

6.1 0 6.4 -2.3

6.1 -0.3 6.3 -2.3

6.1 -0.3 6.1 -5.7

6.1 -0.3 7 8.6

6.1 -0.4 6.6 3.1

22.2 1

22.2 1.3

22.3 1.3

22.3 0.3

22.2 0.3

22.2 0.1

22.2 -0.2

22.2 -0.1

22.3 0.1

22.3 0.3

22.3 0.4

22.3 0.2

22.3 0.1

493 1.2

494.1 1.1

495.3 1

496.2 0.9

497.2 0.8

498.1 0.8

499.1 0.8

499.8 0.7

500.6 0.7

501.3 0.6

502.2 0.6

502.9 0.6

503.6 0.6

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%)

220.7 1.8 4.1

221.2 1.1 4

221.7 0.2 4.2

222.2 0.5 4.3

222.8 1 4.4

223.5 1.1 4.3

224.3 1.2 4.1

225.1 1.3 4.1

226 1.4 4.1

226.9 1.5 4.1

227.8 1.6 4

228.7 1.6 4

229.5 1.6 4

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

2149 2272 -124

2293 2289 4

2521 2358 163

2552 2292 260

2518 2245 273

2372 2111 260

2268 1982 285

2193 1874 319

2224 1893 331

2249 1914 335

2281 1933 347

2296 1954 342

2330 1978 352

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

83

TA L L A H A S S E E

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Tallahassee MSA is comprised of Gadsden, Jefferson, Leon, and Wakulla Counties. It is located between Pensacola and Jacksonville. Tallahassee is the capital city of Florida and houses Florida State University and Florida A&M University.

The Tallahassee Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show low growth in the economic indicators relative to other metro areas forecasted in the state. The area should see personal income growth averaging 5.9 percent each year. Real per capita income levels should average $39,100. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 4.9 percent, and the average annual wage level will be $50,700. Population growth will average 0.8 percent, and the Gross Metro Product will average at a level of 14,276.70 million dollars.

Employment growth is expected to average 1.6 percent each year. The unemployment rate will average 3.5 percent.

The Professional and Business Services sector will be the fastest growing sector in Tallahassee, averaging 3.8 percent annually. The Construction and Mining follows with an average growth rate of 3.5 percent.

The Information sector is expected to decline, with an average annual growth rate of -1.5 percent.

QUICK FACTS: •

Metro population estimate of 373,255 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

•

Gadsden County population estimate of 46,194 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

•

Jefferson County population estimate of 14,194 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

•

Leon County population estimate of 281,845 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

•

Wakulla County population estimate of 31,022 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

•

Civilian labor force of 191,716 in August 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

•

An unemployment rate of 4.0% as of August 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 7,632 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database).

TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: • State of Florida – 22,612 • Florida State University – 12,512 • Leon County Schools – 4,550 • Publix Supermarkets – 3,439 • Tallahassee Memorial HealthCare, Inc. – 3,190 • City of Tallahassee – 2,736 • Leon County – 1,919 • Florida A&M University – 1,759 • Tallahassee Community College – 1,631 •

Capital Regional Medical Center – 1,151

Source: Tallahassee Chamber of Commerce

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES FSU/FAMU partners awarded $1 million to diversify research ranks • The Institute of Education Sciences is sponsoring a $1 million grant for Florida State University and Florida A&M University to help increase diversity in research in education.

• The grant will be dispersed over the course of five years to “promising juniors and first-year master’s degree students who are interested in seeking graduate and doctoral degrees and researching social justice issues as they impact learning.”

• Grant recipients will be African-American students, students who are first in their family to attend college, veterans, and students with disabilities.

• After a project director is hired, 6-8 FAMU students and 4-6 FSU students will be recruited during the fall to begin the program in January.

Source: Tallahassee Democrat, July 8, 2017

84

Florida & Metro Forecast / October 2017

TA L L A H A S S E E

Tallahassee to cut 47 jobs to balance budget • In an effort to make up for a $4.5 million funding gap, Tallahassee city commissioners have decided to eliminate about 47 jobs from next year’s budget.

• There have already been 14 positions eliminated through streamlining across departments and another 33 eliminated after work groups in street repair, traffic systems, and cemetery landscaping are consolidated.

• The city budget office has said that consolidation, workforce reductions, outsourcing, and employee benefit cost sharing can close the funding gap and save an additional $3.34 million. Another $2.3 million can be saved with changes in health care and pension cost-sharing.

Source: Tallahassee Democrat, July 19, 2017 Florida State, Amazon partner in work-study jobs program for students • Amazon, a regular participant at FSU career fairs, is providing over 50 FSU work-study students the opportunity to work remotely for Amazon’s customer service department.

• The position offers flexible work hours and the benefit of “[working] with FSU and Amazon to determine how the work experience can be tailored toward the student’s development in preparing for the job market.”

• This partnership allows Amazon to connect with talent that they can hire in the future and, after Amazon picks up the students’ salaries, allows FSU to free up money that can then be used to assist other work-study students.

Source: Tallahassee Democrat, August 8, 2017 FSU alumni to give College of Social Work $500,000 for new center over next 5 years • The Stoops Family Foundation Inc. will contribute $100,000 a year for the next five years to help create the Center for the Study and Promotion of Communities, Families and Children.

• The foundation, created by FSU alumni Aggie

and Jeff Stoops, will also be matching up to $75,000 in charitable contributions made to the center each year.

• The center will oversee operations of many initiatives and centers affiliated with the College of Social Work, including the Institute for Family Violence Studies, the Trinity Institute for Addictions, and other resources.

Source: Tallahassee Democrat, August 30, 2017 Tallahassee area unemployment dips to 4 percent • Leon County’s August unemployment rate came in at 4 percent, which is slightly below its July rate of 4.1 percent and the state’s August rate of 4.2 percent.

• According to the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, the area’s overall labor force increased by 4,642 employed residents, with the labor force totaling 186,226 for the region comprised of Leon, Gadsden, and Wakulla counties.

• Trade, transportation and utilities, professional and business services, and leisure and hospitality are the industries that have grown year-overyear and continue to contribute to increased job availability.

Source: Tallahassee Democrat, September 15, 2017 Weakened Irma still knocked Tallahassee for a loop • Leon County administrators had originally prepared to activate its emergency centers to welcome thousands expected to flee South Florida before Hurricane Irma hit, but those plans had to be revised as the storm changed its trajectory and put Leon County itself at the same risk.

• Tallahassee ended up only experiencing moderate tropical storm winds and light rains, but over 40,000 city utility customers lost power, which is over 30 percent of the city’s customers.

• Additionally, almost 3,000 people were sent to local shelters, 60 traffic signals were knocked out, and dozens of roads were blocked with tree debris.

Source: Tallahassee Democrat, September 11, 2017 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

85

TA L L A H A S S E E Tallahassee MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government

0

0.5

Florida & Tallahassee Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(Percent)

1

1.5

26000.0

8.0%

20000.0

(Millions 2009 $)

18000.0

6.0%

16000.0

4.0%

14000.0

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 FL Unemployment Rate Tallahassee Unemployment Rate

12000.0

(Thousands)

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Gross Metro Product

Tallahassee Real Personal Income

Tallahassee Payroll Employment

86

3

24000.0 22000.0

230.0 220.0 210.0 200.0 190.0 180.0 170.0 160.0 150.0

2.5

Tallahassee Real Gross Metro Product

10.0%

2.0%

2

8.0%

(Percent Change Year Ago)

6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Tallahassee Payroll Employment

Florida & Metro Forecast / October 2017

-6.0%

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Personal Income

TA L L A H A S S E E

Annual Outlook for Tallahassee, FL October 2017 Irma 2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

13.3 -1.5 6.8 6.4 12.6 -3.2 35.4 33.7 40.9 1.8

13.0 -1.7 6.9 6.1 12.2 -3.0 34.9 32.8 41.1 0.5

13.7 5.3 7.2 6.5 12.7 3.7 36.5 33.8 41.9 1.9

14.3 3.9 7.5 6.8 13.1 3.6 37.7 34.8 43.1 3.0

14.9 4.2 7.9 7.0 13.6 3.1 39.1 35.7 44.1 2.4

15.4 3.9 8.2 7.3 13.9 2.2 40.2 36.1 44.6 1.1

16.3 5.5 8.7 7.6 14.4 3.9 41.8 37.0 46.2 3.4

17.5 7.2 9.2 8.3 15.1 5.2 44.3 38.4 48.0 4.1

18.6 6.7 9.6 9.0 15.8 4.5 46.8 39.7 50.0 4.0

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 166.2 167.3 171.5 -1.0 0.7 2.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.1 3.1 2.9 Manufacturing -3.9 -2.3 -4.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 163.1 164.3 168.5 Nonmanufacturing -1.0 0.7 2.6 Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining 5.9 6.2 6.3 -4.0 5.4 1.7 Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities 22.2 22.7 23.7 -0.6 2.5 4.0 Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade 3.2 3.2 3.4 Retail Trade 17.4 17.8 18.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information 3.3 3.4 3.9 3.6 3.8 12.9 Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities 7.2 7.3 7.1 -4.0 1.5 -2.7 Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services 18.2 18.5 19.0 -1.1 1.6 2.7 Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services 19.7 19.7 20.6 -0.6 -0.3 4.8 Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality 16.8 17.2 17.9 3.5 2.7 3.8 Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services 9.2 8.8 9.0 3.1 -3.9 2.2 Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government 1.9 2.0 1.9 -0.5 3.5 -2.5 Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government 58.7 58.4 59.2 -2.5 -0.6 1.3 Pct Chg Year Ago

172.7 0.7 3.1 4.2 169.6 0.6 6.7 7.0 24.2 2.2 3.6 18.7 1.9 3.5 -10.2 7.0 -1.0 19.0 -0.2 21.1 2.1 18.7 4.6 8.8 -2.2 1.9 0.8 58.7 -0.9

177.5 2.8 3.1 2.6 174.4 2.8 7.5 10.6 24.5 1.1 3.7 18.7 2.1 3.2 -8.3 7.5 6.6 20.3 7.3 21.9 3.8 19.6 5.0 9.4 6.8 2.0 4.0 58.5 -0.3

182.4 2.8 3.1 -2.1 179.4 2.9 7.8 4.3 25.4 4.0 3.8 19.5 2.1 2.9 -10.2 7.6 2.2 21.1 3.9 22.3 2.1 20.3 3.4 10.3 8.8 2.1 5.6 59.5 1.7

187.0 2.5 3.1 1.3 183.9 2.5 8.2 5.9 25.8 1.3 3.9 19.5 2.2 2.8 -2.9 8.0 4.4 22.5 6.4 22.7 1.6 21.2 4.2 10.6 3.5 2.1 0.8 60.1 1.0

190.0 1.6 3.2 1.5 186.8 1.6 8.7 5.6 25.8 0.3 3.9 19.4 2.2 2.8 1.3 8.2 2.9 24.1 7.3 22.8 0.5 21.2 0.0 10.8 1.1 2.1 -2.0 60.4 0.5

192.3 1.2 3.2 2.1 189.0 1.2 9.0 3.8 25.9 0.0 4.0 19.4 2.2 2.9 2.4 8.3 1.8 24.8 2.9 23.1 1.5 21.3 0.7 10.8 0.7 2.2 5.2 60.6 0.4

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

378.0 0.6 185.0 -1.9 5.2 976.0 739.2 237.0

380.1 0.6 187.8 1.5 4.7 1244.3 824.9 419.0

384.3 1.1 193.5 3.0 4.1 1304.7 970.9 334.0

389.3 1.3 196.8 1.7 4.0 1919.4 1246.0 673.0

394.0 1.2 200.9 2.1 3.8 2108.4 1249.4 859.0

398.7 1.2 205.0 2.1 3.7 2242.8 1308.5 934.0

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

374.7 0.8 187.9 -1.1 7.4 998.9 495.9 503.0

373.8 -0.2 186.7 -0.6 6.4 1188.1 611.1 577.0

375.9 0.5 188.5 1.0 5.8 1189.6 635.5 554.0

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

87

TA L L A H A S S E E

Quarterly Outlook for Tallahassee, FL October 2017 Irma 2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

2020Q1

2020Q2

2020Q3

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

15.5 3.2 8.3 7.3 13.9 1.6

15.6 3.9 8.3 7.3 14 2.4

15.9 4.9 8.5 7.4 14.2 3.4

16.1 4.9 8.6 7.5 14.3 3.4

16.4 5.6 8.7 7.7 14.5 3.9

16.7 6.8 8.9 7.8 14.7 5

17 7 9 8 14.9 5

17.3 7.2 9.1 8.2 15.1 5.2

17.6 7.5 9.2 8.4 15.2 5.4

17.9 7.2 9.3 8.6 15.4 5.1

18.2 7.1 9.5 8.8 15.6 4.8

18.5 6.9 9.6 8.9 15.8 4.6

18.8 6.6 9.7 9.1 15.9 4.3

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

40.4 36.2 44.8 -0.1

40.5 36.2 45 2.1

41 36.5 45.5 2.9

41.5 36.8 45.9 3.1

42.1 37.1 46.4 3.5

42.7 37.5 46.9 4.1

43.4 37.9 47.3 4.1

44 38.3 47.8 4.1

44.7 38.6 48.3 4.1

45.3 38.9 48.8 4

45.9 39.3 49.2 4

46.5 39.6 49.7 3.9

47 39.8 50.2 4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

183.5 2.8 3.1 -0.5

183.9 2 3.1 -0.8

185.6 3.2 3.1 2

186.7 2.3 3.1 1.7

187.5 2.2 3.1 0.8

188.3 2.4 3.1 0.7

189.1 1.9 3.1 0.9

189.8 1.7 3.2 1

190.3 1.5 3.2 1.6

190.9 1.4 3.2 2.4

191.4 1.2 3.2 2.5

192.1 1.2 3.2 2.4

192.6 1.2 3.2 2.1

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

180.4 2.9

180.8 2

182.5 3.2

183.6 2.3

184.4 2.2

185.2 2.4

186 1.9

186.6 1.7

187.1 1.5

187.7 1.3

188.2 1.2

188.9 1.2

189.3 1.2

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.9 3.7 25.6 4

8.1 6.2 25.7 4.4

8.1 8.6 25.7 3

8.2 5.8 25.7 1.2

8.3 5.3 25.8 0.6

8.4 3.9 25.8 0.3

8.5 5.4 25.9 0.5

8.6 5.7 25.9 0.5

8.7 5.8 25.8 0.3

8.8 5.4 25.8 0

8.9 4.4 25.8 -0.1

9 4 25.8 -0.2

9.1 3.6 25.9 0.1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.8 19.6 2.1

3.8 19.8 2.1

3.8 19.6 2.1

3.8 19.5 2.2

3.9 19.4 2.2

3.9 19.4 2.2

3.9 19.5 2.2

3.9 19.4 2.2

3.9 19.4 2.2

3.9 19.3 2.2

4 19.4 2.2

4 19.4 2.2

4 19.4 2.2

Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

2.9 -9.5 7.7 2.5

2.8 -8.1 7.7 0.8

2.8 -4.8 7.8 3.9

2.7 -3.3 7.9 4.1

2.8 -2.3 8 4.3

2.8 -1.3 8.1 5.2

2.8 1.7 8.1 4.1

2.8 2.1 8.2 2.9

2.8 0.7 8.2 2.5

2.8 0.8 8.2 2.2

2.9 1.8 8.3 1.9

2.9 2.4 8.3 1.8

2.9 2.8 8.4 1.9

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

21.3 3.9 22.4 1.6 20.5 4

21.4 1.8 22.5 1.6 20.1 0.8

21.8 4.8 22.6 2.2 20.9 4.2

22.3 6 22.6 1.7 21.2 3.2

22.7 6.6 22.7 1.4 21.3 3.7

23.2 8.3 22.7 0.9 21.3 5.9

23.7 8.8 22.7 0.6 21.2 1.5

24.1 7.9 22.8 0.6 21.2 -0.2

24.3 7 22.8 0.4 21.1 -0.8

24.5 5.8 22.9 0.6 21.1 -0.6

24.6 3.7 23 1.1 21.2 -0.1

24.7 2.6 23.1 1.4 21.3 0.5

24.9 2.6 23.2 1.8 21.3 1.1

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

10.3 8.3 2.1 5.8

10.5 4.6 2.2 3.9

10.6 4.5 2.2 5

10.6 4.2 2.2 3

10.7 3.1 2.1 -1.3

10.7 2.2 2.1 -3.3

10.7 1.5 2.1 -4.2

10.7 1.2 2.1 -2.6

10.8 1 2.1 -0.9

10.8 0.8 2.1 -0.1

10.8 0.8 2.1 0.4

10.8 0.7 2.4 13.8

10.8 0.7 2.2 6.5

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

59.7 1.7

59.9 1.2

60 2.2

60 0.6

60.1 0.6

60.1 0.4

60.2 0.3

60.3 0.4

60.4 0.6

60.5 0.7

60.6 0.7

60.6 0.5

60.6 0.3

385 1.2

386.2 1.3

387.5 1.3

388.7 1.3

389.9 1.3

391 1.2

392.3 1.2

393.5 1.2

394.6 1.2

395.8 1.2

397 1.2

398.2 1.2

399.3 1.2

193.6 2.8 3.9

194.6 2.3 3.9

195.5 1.7 4

196.3 1.5 4.1

197.3 1.9 4.1

198.3 1.9 3.9

199.3 2 3.8

200.3 2 3.8

201.4 2.1 3.7

202.5 2.1 3.7

203.6 2.2 3.7

204.6 2.2 3.7

205.5 2.1 3.7

961 922 39

1290 1042 247

1690 1177 514

1931 1241 690

2022 1286 736

2035 1281 754

2051 1253 798

2097 1238 859

2126 1242 884

2160 1265 895

2200 1284 916

2223 1302 921

2273 1326 947

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

88

Florida & Metro Forecast / October 2017

TA M PA – S T. P E T E R S B U R G – C L E A R WAT E R

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater MSA is comprised of Hernando, Hillsborough, Pasco, and Pinellas counties. Located centrally on the west coast of Florida, this region includes Tarpon Springs, Sponge Docks, Ybor City, Bush Gardens, the University of South Florida and the University of Tampa. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Tampa Bay Rays call this region home.

The Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show relatively high growth in the economic indicators relative to the other MSAs studied. Personal income growth is expected to be 6.0 percent on average each year, and the real per capita income level will average $42,400.

Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.2 percent. The average annual wage level will be $55,900.

Population growth will average 1.5 percent, and Tampa is forecasted to have the second highest average Gross Metro Product in the studied areas, averaging a level of 135,236.08 million dollars.

Employment growth is expected to average 2.6 percent annually. The unemployment rate is expected to average 4.0 percent.

The fastest growing sector in the Tampa area will be the Construction and Mining sector with an average annual growth rate of 6.8 percent. This is followed by the Professional and Business Services sector with an average annual growth rate of 6.7 percent, and the Financial and Other Services sectors, both at 3.1 percent. None of the sectors are expected to decline.

QUICK FACTS:

• • • • • • •

Metro population estimate of 2,870,569 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

Hernando County population estimate of 174,441 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

Hillsborough County population estimate of 1,291,578 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

Pasco County population estimate of 475,502 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

Pinellas County population estimate of 929,048 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

Civilian labor force of 1,526,007 in August 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

Unemployment rate of 4.0% as of August 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 60,514 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database).

TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• • • • • • • • • •

Hillsborough County School board – 29,603 MacDill Air Force Base – 15,485 Pinellas County School District – 13,905 Hillsborough County Government – 9,328 Pasco County School District – 9,289 Verizon Communications, Inc. – 9,065 University of South Florida – 8,353 Tampa International Airport – 8,060 Tampa General Hospital – 6,900 Publix Food Centers – 5,823

Sources: Pasco County School District, Pinellas County School District, 2011 Comprehensive Annual Financial Report: Tampa Port Authority

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Where the job cuts could come at HSN • HSN Inc., one of Tampa Bay’s largest employers, says that job cuts are on the way as the St. Petersburg multi-channel retailer is acquired by Liberty Interactive Corp.

• In its filings with the SEC, HSN stated that “in the spirit of transparency, we do expect headcount reductions as we address areas of overlap, which will likely affect both companies.”

• Experts say that cuts will likely come at all levels of the company, as duplicate corporate roles will be eliminated as well as call center positions.

• Liberty says it expects $75-110 million in annual cost reductions after the deal is complete in the fourth quarter of 2017.

Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, July 7, 2017

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

89

TA M PA – S T. P E T E R S B U R G – C L E A R WAT E R

Tampa International Airport sees 4th of July travel boost • Tampa International Airport’s passenger traffic increased 5.2 percent over Fourth of July weekend compared to last year, with 378,457 travelers this year.

• The airport is currently working on the billiondollar first phase of its expansion. In coming years, the airport will have a new SkyConnect train system as well as a consolidated rental car center.

• By December of this year, the majority of the 69 planned new concession areas will be open, providing passengers with many more dining and shopping options.

Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, July 8, 2017 USF wants to build a $200 million football stadium • The University of South Florida has announced that it is considering building its own football stadium on campus. While the project is still in the early planning stages, a feasibility study estimated that the endeavor would cost the school about $200 million.

• The Bulls currently play at Raymond James Stadium, which is home to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The proposed new stadium would hold 40,000-50,000 fans.

• Part of the motivation behind the plan is the growing popularity of the USF football team, which saw attendance rise by nearly 11,000 fans per game last year.

Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, August 9, 2017 Living wage ordinance in St. Pete set to pass despite cost to city • The St. Petersburg City Council will vote on— and likely pass—an increase in the minimum wage for workers completing city contracted services.

• The ordinance will set the minimum wage for taxpayer-funded workers at $12 an hour, and increase the wage by $1 an hour for three years until the wage reaches $15 an hour.

• St. Petersburg estimates that the cost to the city in the first year of implementation will be roughly $400,000, citing the expectation that businesses will likely shift the financial burden back onto the city.

Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, August 24, 2017 Water Street Tampa’s 500-room hotel, with 26th story rooftop lounge, set for city review • Strategic Property Partners, which is currently developing Water Street Tampa, has revealed design plans for its new hotel on Old Water Street.

• Among the design’s notable features are 126,000 square feet of meeting and event space, as well as a 30,000-square-foot ballroom, which will be the largest in the region.

• The hotel, attached to an existing Mariott, will greatly improve the city’s chances of attracting bigger conventions and generating more tourism.

Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, September 1, 2017 People wait hours for food assistance in wake of Hurricane Irma • In Hillsborough County’s Plant City, residents of Hillsborough and neighboring counties spent hours in traffic to pick up federal food aid after Hurricane Irma.

• While picking up the government-supplied debit cards at Plant City Stadium was reported to be easy, the sheer volume of people flocking to the Food for Florida disaster relief area made traffic a serious concern.

• The goal of the Food for Florida program is to help low-income people replace food they lost when power was knocked out during Irma.

Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, October 9, 2017

90

Florida & Metro Forecast / October 2017

TA M PA – S T. P E T E R S B U R G – C L E A R WAT E R Tampa - St. Petersburg - Clearwater Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government

0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Tampa Unemployment Rate (Percent)

12.0%

0.6

0.8

1.2

1.4

Tampa Real Gross Metro Product 300000.0

(Millions 2009 $)

250000.0

10.0%

200000.0

8.0% 6.0%

150000.0

4.0%

100000.0

2.0%

1

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 FL Unemployment Rate Tampa Unemployment Rate

50000.0

Tampa Real Personal Income

Tampa Payroll Employment 2000.0

(Thousands)

1800.0

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Gross Metro Product

10.0%

(Percent Change Year Ago)

5.0%

1600.0

0.0%

1400.0 -5.0%

1200.0 1000.0

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Tampa Payroll Employment

-10.0%

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Personal Income

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

91

TA M PA – S T. P E T E R S B U R G – C L E A R WAT E R

Annual Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL October 2017 Irma 2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

113.9 -1.6 55.5 58.4 108.5 -3.3 40.0 38.0 47.8 2.5

114.0 0.1 57.3 56.8 107.2 -1.2 39.6 37.2 48.2 0.7

120.6 5.8 60.2 60.5 111.6 4.1 41.3 38.2 49.3 2.3

128.0 6.1 64.2 63.7 118.0 5.7 43.0 39.6 50.8 3.2

134.3 5.0 68.3 66.1 122.6 3.9 44.2 40.3 52.2 2.6

139.5 3.8 71.0 68.5 125.2 2.2 45.0 40.4 52.9 1.5

147.3 5.6 75.6 71.7 130.3 4.0 46.8 41.4 54.6 3.2

158.7 7.8 80.9 77.8 137.7 5.7 49.8 43.2 56.8 4.0

169.8 6.9 85.8 83.9 144.1 4.7 52.5 44.6 59.1 4.0

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 1148.9 1176.4 1208.4 2.3 2.4 2.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 59.4 60.0 61.2 Manufacturing 1.1 1.0 1.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 1089.5 1116.4 1147.2 Nonmanufacturing 2.3 2.5 2.8 Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining 54.2 56.9 60.8 3.0 5.0 6.9 Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities 219.0 222.9 232.0 2.6 1.8 4.1 Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade 48.5 48.9 50.4 Retail Trade 144.0 146.7 152.8 26.6 27.3 28.7 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information 25.7 26.1 25.6 -0.5 1.4 -2.1 Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities 95.5 99.7 101.7 4.3 4.3 2.1 Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services 190.9 198.2 204.3 4.6 3.8 3.1 Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services 182.3 184.6 188.4 0.8 1.3 2.0 Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality 128.3 133.3 138.4 4.4 3.9 3.8 Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services 41.1 42.4 43.4 -0.5 3.3 2.2 Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government 22.6 22.7 22.9 -1.2 0.4 0.8 Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government 129.7 129.6 129.8 -0.6 -0.1 0.2 Pct Chg Year Ago

1250.7 3.5 62.2 1.7 1188.5 3.6 64.9 6.8 240.0 3.5 51.2 159.2 29.6 25.8 1.0 103.9 2.1 217.8 6.6 194.6 3.3 144.6 4.5 43.4 0.0 23.6 3.1 129.8 0.0

1297.2 3.7 64.6 3.8 1232.6 3.7 70.8 9.0 248.2 3.4 51.9 165.9 30.4 25.5 -1.1 107.2 3.1 231.5 6.3 200.1 2.8 149.0 3.0 45.1 3.9 24.3 3.1 131.2 1.1

1329.8 2.5 64.9 0.5 1264.8 2.6 78.0 10.2 250.8 1.0 52.9 167.0 30.7 26.0 1.9 108.1 0.9 242.2 4.6 204.6 2.3 150.6 1.1 48.1 6.8 24.7 1.8 131.7 0.4

1371.9 3.2 64.9 -0.1 1307.1 3.3 81.9 5.1 252.3 0.6 53.5 165.1 31.4 25.2 -2.9 114.0 5.5 262.2 8.3 207.6 1.4 156.2 3.7 50.1 4.1 24.6 -0.4 132.8 0.8

1412.3 2.9 65.6 1.2 1346.7 3.0 87.5 6.8 253.6 0.5 54.4 164.5 31.7 25.6 1.6 117.8 3.3 288.6 10.0 208.6 0.5 156.2 0.0 50.6 1.1 24.1 -1.9 133.9 0.9

1439.7 1.9 66.9 1.9 1372.8 1.9 92.1 5.2 253.9 0.1 55.2 164.6 31.7 26.3 2.7 120.8 2.5 299.3 3.7 211.6 1.4 157.5 0.8 51.0 0.6 25.1 3.9 135.2 1.0

2979.1 1.9 1439.7 0.4 5.2 14813.0 9753.7 5059.0

3039.5 2.0 1475.7 2.5 4.6 17156.3 11016.8 6140.0

3096.7 1.9 1517.3 2.8 4.1 18122.9 13257.0 4866.0

3146.1 1.6 1532.2 1.0 4.1 21397.5 14809.9 6588.0

3189.9 1.4 1551.4 1.3 4.0 20729.3 14388.5 6341.0

3231.6 1.3 1571.1 1.3 3.9 21696.6 14864.0 6833.0

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

92

2851.0 0.8 1410.7 0.9 8.2 9086.3 5928.3 3158.0

Florida & Metro Forecast / October 2017

2878.7 1.0 1420.9 0.7 6.9 11569.4 7251.6 4318.0

2923.4 1.6 1434.3 0.9 6.0 11721.7 7112.4 4609.0

TA M PA – S T. P E T E R S B U R G – C L E A R WAT E R

Quarterly Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL October 2017 Irma 2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

2020Q1

2020Q2

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

140.2 3.2 71.5 68.7

141 3.5 71.9 69.1

143.6 4.2 73.5 70.1

145.9 5 75 70.9

148.4 5.9 76.3 72.2

151.4 7.3 77.7 73.7

154.5 7.6 79.1 75.4

157.3 7.8 80.4 76.9

160.3 8 81.6 78.7

162.9 7.6 82.8 80.2

165.8 7.3 83.9 81.9

168.5 7.1 85.2 83.3

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

125.7 1.5

126 2.1

127.8 2.8

129.3 3.5

130.9 4.2

132.9 5.5

135 5.6

136.8 5.8

138.6 5.9

140.2 5.5

141.9 5.1

143.4 4.9

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

45.2 40.5

45.2 40.4

45.9 40.8

46.5 41.2

47.1 41.5

47.9 42

48.7 42.5

49.4 42.9

50.2 43.4

50.8 43.7

51.5 44.1

52.2 44.5

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

53.1 0.3

53.3 2

53.8 2.7

54.3 2.8

54.9 3.3

55.4 4

56 4

56.5 4

57.1 4.1

57.7 4

58.3 4.1

58.8 4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

1333.7 2.5

1337.2 1.7

1353.8 2.5

1367.5 3.1

1377.5 3.3

1388.9 3.9

1400.8 3.5

1409.4 3.1

1416.1 2.8

1423 2.5

1428.3 2

1437.6 2

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

64.7 -0.2

64.7 -0.5

64.7 -1

64.9 -0.1

64.9 0.4

64.9 0.2

65.1 0.6

65.4 0.7

65.8 1.3

66.2 2.1

66.6 2.3

66.8 2.1

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

1269 2.6

1272.5 1.8

1289.1 2.6

1302.5 3.2

1312.6 3.4

1324 4

1335.7 3.6

1344 3.2

1350.3 2.9

1356.7 2.5

1361.7 1.9

1370.9 2

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

77.2 9

80.2 8.6

80.7 5.1

81.3 4.4

82.2 6.4

83.7 4.3

85.4 5.9

86.9 6.9

88.2 7.4

89.5 7

90.7 6.1

91.7 5.5

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

250.5 0.4

251.8 0.8

251.9 0.3

252 1

252.4 0.8

253 0.5

253.5 0.6

253.6 0.6

253.6 0.5

253.5 0.2

253.8 0.1

253.6 0

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

52.9 166 31.1

53.3 167.4 31.2

53.2 166.3 31.3

53.3 165.2 31.4

53.6 164.4 31.5

54 164.5 31.5

54.2 164.9 31.6

54.4 164.8 31.7

54.5 164.3 31.7

54.6 164 31.7

54.9 164.4 31.7

55.2 164.4 31.7

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

26.1 1.7

25.9 2.5

25 -3.5

24.9 -4.2

25.4 -2.5

25.6 -1.4

25.5 2

25.5 2.5

25.6 1

25.9 1.1

26.1 2.2

26.2 2.7

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

107.9 0.4

107.7 -0.7

111.3 2.7

113.9 5.1

115 6.6

116 7.7

116.7 4.9

117.4 3.1

118.2 2.8

119 2.6

119.8 2.6

120.4 2.5

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

246.1 5.9

245.7 3.7

251.4 6.8

259.2 7.2

265.5 7.9

272.9 11.1

281.7 12.1

287.4 10.9

291.2 9.7

293.9 7.7

295.2 4.8

297.5 3.5

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

205.1 2.4

206.5 1.6

207 1.5

207.3 2.1

207.8 1.3

208.1 0.8

208.1 0.5

208.4 0.5

208.7 0.4

209.5 0.6

210.2 1

211.1 1.3

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

151.4 1.2

148.4 -1.3

154.5 2.3

156.4 3.2

156.9 3.7

157 5.7

156.7 1.4

156.2 -0.1

155.9 -0.7

156.1 -0.5

156.6 0

157.2 0.6

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

48.7 7.9

49.3 7.4

49.8 6.4

50 4.9

50.2 3

50.4 2.1

50.5 1.4

50.6 1.2

50.7 1

50.7 0.7

50.9 0.7

50.9 0.6

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

24.7 1.3

25 2

25 2

24.7 0.7

24.4 -1.4

24.3 -3

24.2 -3.3

24.2 -2.2

24.1 -1.1

24.1 -0.8

23.8 -1.9

27.2 12.5

131.3 -0.2

131.9 0.1

132.5 0.2

132.8 1.1

132.9 1.2

133.1 0.9

133.3 0.6

133.7 0.7

134.1 1

134.5 1.1

134.8 1.1

135 1

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

3103.8 1.9

3116.6 1.8

3129 1.7

3140.5 1.6

3151.9 1.5

3163.1 1.5

3173.9 1.4

3184.7 1.4

3195.3 1.4

3205.9 1.4

3216.3 1.3

3226.6 1.3

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

1519.1 2.8

1522.3 2

1526.2 1

1529.7 0.9

1533.9 1

1539 1.1

1544.2 1.2

1548.7 1.2

1553.9 1.3

1558.9 1.3

1564 1.3

1569.2 1.3

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

3.9

3.9

4

4.1

4.2

4.1

4

4

4

4

4

3.9

16129 12986 3142

18180 13733 4448

21045 14731 6314

21938 14802 7136

21720 15022 6698

20887 14685 6202

20535 14401 6133

20655 14318 6337

20784 14359 6425

20943 14476 6468

21248 14593 6654

21506 14786 6720

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

93

I N D U S T R Y L O C AT I O N Q U OT I E N T

E X P L A N AT ION AND INTE RP RE TATIO N This technique compares the local economy to a reference economy; in this case, the local economy is the chosen MSA, and the reference economy is the state of Florida. An Industry Location Quotient (LQ) is calculated to determine if the local economy has a greater share of each industry’s employment than the reference economy. The LQ helps to identify specializations that exist in the local economy.

There are only three possible outcomes: 1. An LQ greater than one 2. An LQ equal to one and 3. An LQ less than one. An LQ that is greater than one means that the share of local employment in that particular industry is greater than the reference economy employment share in that same industry. This implies that some of the goods or services produced by that industry are exported for consumption elsewhere. An LQ of one means that local demand is met by the local industry. No goods/services are imported or exported from the local area in that industry. The share of local employment in that industry is equal to the share for that industry in the reference economy. An LQ less than one implies that the industry is not meeting local demand for that good or service, and in order to meet demand, that area must import that good or service. This also means that the share of local employment in that industry is less than the share of employment in that industry for the reference economy.

CALC U LATIO N An industry location quotient is a calculated ratio of two ratios.

LQ = ((Local employment in industry A in year T / Total local employment in year T) / (Reference economy employment in industry A in year T) / (Total reference employment in year T)) For example: Orlando MSA employment for Information is 27,400 Total Orlando MSA nonagricultural employment is 1,104,100 Florida employment for Information is 169,800 Total Florida nonagricultural employment is 8,247,000 LQ = ((27,400 / 1,104,100) / (169,800 / 8,247,000)) = 1.2039

Source: Florida Regional Economic Database, Current Employment Statistics, December 2006

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Florida & Metro Forecast / October 2017

Sean Snaith, Ph.D., is the director of the University of Central Florida’s Institute for Economic Competitiveness and a nationally recognized economist in the field of business and economic forecasting.

Snaith is the recipient of multiple awards for the accuracy of his forecasts, his research and his teaching. He has served as a consultant for local governments and multinational corporations such as Compaq, Dell and IBM. Before joining UCF’s College of Business, he held teaching positions at Pennsylvania State University, American University in Cairo, the University of North Dakota and the University of the Pacific.

Snaith is frequently interviewed in international, national and regional media. He has been quoted in The Wall Street Journal, USA Today, The New York Times, The Economist and The Guardian and has appeared on CNBC, Fox Business Network, The Nightly News with Brian Williams, Al Jazeera, the BBC and CBC, China Central TV, Sky News, Nippon TV and the Business News Network, based in Toronto.

Snaith is a sought-after speaker known for his engaging and humorous presentations. He has built a national reputation for his unique ability to explain complex subject matter in a digestible manner. He earned praise from one business editor for having “an uncanny knack of making economics not only understandable but interesting.”

Snaith is a member of several economic organizations and national economic forecasting panels, including The Wall Street Journal’s Economic Forecasting Survey, the Associated Press’ Economy Survey, CNNMoney.com’s Survey of Leading Economists, USA Today’s Survey of Top Economists, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s Survey of Professional Forecasters, Bloomberg and Reuters.

Snaith holds a B.S. in Economics from Allegheny College and an M.A. and Ph.D. in Economics from Pennsylvania State University.

Sean M. Snaith, PhD Director, Institute for Economic Competitiveness P 407.823.1451 E ssnaith@ucf.edu

UNIVERSIT Y OF CENTR AL FLORIDA INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC COMPETITIVENESS P. O . B OX 1 6 1 4 0 0 ORL ANDO, FLORIDA 32816 P H 4 0 7. 8 2 3 . 1 4 5 3 • F X 4 0 7. 8 2 3 . 1 4 5 4

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