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DECEMBER 2017 2 017-2 02 1

Florida & Metro

FORECAST


We would like to recognize the following organizations for their support of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness:


FLO R I DA & M E TRO FO R EC A S T 2017 - 2021

Published quarterly by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, College of Business Administration, University of Central Florida Copyright © 2017 Institute for Economic Competitiveness. All rights reserved. Publications of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness are made possible by the following staff: Dr. Sean Snaith, Director Angela Ayala, Administrative Assistant Diana Merchant, Researcher Leigh Durden, Researcher Maegan Alexis Trinidad, Researcher Coulter Small, Researcher Brandt Dietry, Researcher This forecast was prepared based upon assumptions reflecting the Institute for Economic Competitiveness’ judgments as of the date it bears. Actual results could vary materially from the forecast. Neither the Institute for Economic Competitiveness nor the University of Central Florida shall be held responsible as a consequence of any such variance. Unless approved by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, the publication or distribution of this forecast and the preparation, publication or distribution of any excerpts from this forecast are prohibited.


TA B LE O F CO NTENTS

Florida Highlights and Summary................................................ 5-13 Florida Forecast Tables ................................................................. 14-19 Florida Forecast Charts ..............................................................20-28 Florida News Summaries................................................................... 29 Deltona–Daytona Beach–Ormond Beach ..........................30-34 Gainesville .......................................................................................... 35-39 Jacksonville ...................................................................................... 40-44 Lakeland–Winter Haven ..............................................................45-49 Miami–Fort Lauderdale–West Palm Beach ........................50-54 Naples–Immokalee–Marco Island ........................................... 55-59 Ocala ................................................................................................... 60-64 Orlando–Kissimmee–Sanford ...................................................65-69 Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville ............................................... 70-74 Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent .....................................................75-79 Tallahassee........................................................................................ 80-84 Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater ........................................ 85-89 Industry Location Quotient ..............................................................90

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Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2017


HIGHLIGHTS OF THE Q4 2017 FLORIDA FORECAST •

‘Twas the Forecast before Christmas and all through the state, Florida’s economy was growing just great…

The greatest risk to Florida’s economic growth is not Hurricane Irma, but the political tempest raging in Washington, D.C. that could erode the prospect for further economic stimulus needed to accelerate the U.S. economy.

Irma’s economic impacts will be short-lived, but these sectors will be the most impacted over the next 2-3 months: Leisure & Hospitality (significant short-run job losses, which will take several months to recoup) and Construction (strong growth in this sector will be significantly boosted by repair and rebuilding efforts).

From 2017-2021 Florida’s economy, as measured by Real Gross State Product, will expand at an average annual rate of 3.4%.

Real Gross State Product (RGSP) will expand 2.8% in 2017, 4.1% in both 2018 and 2019, and then ease to 3.1% in 2020 and 2.8% in 2021. Average growth during 2017-2021 is expected to be 0.6 percentage points higher than our forecasted average for U.S. Real GDP growth over this period.

Payroll job growth in Florida is robust and continues to outpace national job growth. Year-overyear growth should average 2.5% in 2017, 2.4% in 2018, 2.3% in 2019, 1.7% in 2020, and 1.5% in 2021. Average job growth over the 2017-2021 period will be 0.8 percentage points faster than the national economy.

Labor force growth in Florida will average 2.0% from 2017-2021. Consistently strong payroll job creation continues to strengthen Florida’s labor market. The strong job market will continue to put more Floridians back into the labor market and attract out-of-state job seekers.

The sectors expected to have the strongest average job growth during 2017-2021 are Construction (6.4%), Professional & Business Services (4.8%), Financial (2.4%), Manufacturing (1.7%), Education & Health Services (1.4%), and Trade, Transportation & Utilities (1.4%).

Housing starts will accelerate going forward, but not fast enough to alleviate the shortage of single-family housing in the short run. The hurricane recovery efforts will also further squeeze the market for construction labor. Total starts will be 114,543 in 2017, 146,141 in 2018, 163,689 in 2019, 173,499 in 2020, and 179,315 in 2021.

Real personal income growth will average 4.1% during 2017-2021, starting with 2.5% growth in 2017, rising to 4.0% in 2018, 5.6% in 2019, 4.4% in 2020, and 4.0% in 2021. Florida’s average growth will exceed the national rate by 0.6 percentage points over that four-year span.

Retail sales will grow at an average pace of over 5.25% during 2018-2021 after some shortterm, hurricane-related volatility, boosted by a stronger national economy, tax cuts, continued strength in Florida’s labor market, and rising household wealth.

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‘Twas the Forecast before Christmas and all through the state, Florida’s economy was growing just great. Help wanted signs were hung at the work sites with care, In the hopes that skilled tradesmen soon would be there. Baby Boomers were nestled all snug in their beds, While visions of pension plans danced in their heads. In Florida we don’t often see very much snow, But to Florida’s Gulf Coast, frosty-haired migrants f low.

s th e a w ‘t

For e c a s t

be f or e

Christmas

With Irma approaching, while Key West was f leeing, The state saw a dip in its monthly sightseeing. Stocked up on food, in my UCF cap, I’d just settled down for a September nap. Then up on my roof there arose such a clatter, I sprang from my bed to see what was the matter. To the plywood-free window I f lew like a f lash, Tore open the blinds and witnessed my shingles crash. Once the hurricane passed and out came the sun, I surveyed the scene and the damage now done. I gathered my policy and all the patience I could muster, And waited seven weeks for the insurance adjuster. Then a rental car pulled up with a man from Atlanta, He had a camera, a clipboard, and a can of Orange Fanta. He f lew up on my roof which was still all a-tatter, He forsook the sleigh for an extension ladder. Florida’s economy lost jobs as I’d lost my roof, Thanks to Irma in September, 127,400 went poof. Fortunately, October’s job recovery was sharp. As for me, I’m still stuck with those ugly blue tarps. Mother Nature delivered a terrible blow, But not enough to derail our economic tempo. Florida’s growth is returning to trend, Our economic recovery has not reached an end.

HAPPY AN D H E ALTH Y H O LI DAYS FRO M TH E I N STITUTE FO R ECO N O M I C CO M PE TITIVEN ES S!

A tax reform gift is being wrapped in D.C., Policy adrenaline for the economy. It will help Florida’s economy to further ascend, Giving tourists and consumers more money to spend. Rising house prices bring good tidings and cheer, Leaving our state poised for several good years. The state’s GDP rising all of the while, Will soon give Floridians a trillion reasons to smile. Almost ten years have passed since a burst housing bubble, The pace of U.S. economic growth Florida now doubles. A long, hard road back gives all a good reason, To be especially thankful this holiday season.


FLORIDA SUMMARY

FLORIDA’S HOUSING MARKET

versus October 2016 (-42.8%). Traditional sales were up 5.9% in October 2017 compared to October 2016.

Roof Tarps Not an Amenity That Poses a Threat to Granite Countertops

The percentage of closed sales of single-family homes that were cash transactions stood at 26.1% in October 2017. For condos, that figure is much higher, as 51.4% of all closings were cash transactions. Both of these markets’ shares of cash transactions have fallen year over year, which points to a lessening role of cash investors in Florida’s housing market amid improvement in mortgage availability year over year.2

The October 2017 single-family home report released by Florida Realtors reflects a market for existing housing that is bouncing back after Hurricane Irma—one that continues to tighten and to feed solid price appreciation that is approaching the price highs reached during the housing bubble. The median sales price for single-family homes increased $15,558 in October 2017 year over year and now stands at $235,558—a year-over-year price appreciation of a robust 7.1%. Price appreciation in the townhome/condominium market continues as well, with an increase in the median sales price by $8,393 year over year, registering at $170,000 in October of this year. Inventories of single-family homes in October are down from a year ago and are now just 3.8 months, indicating an inventory balance that continues to favor sellers in the single-family market, according to the Florida Realtors report.1 Inventories of condominiums decreased from 5.9 months’ supply back in October of 2016 to 5.6 months’ this October. This indicates that the condo market continues to be a market tilted in the sellers’ favor. Distressed sales of single-family homes in the form of short sales continue to plummet year over year (-36.7%), as well as foreclosure/REO sales versus October 2016 (-42.3%). Traditional sales are up 7.0% year over year versus October 2016. Distressed sales of condos in the form of short sales are also still rapidly contracting year over year (-22.5%), and foreclosure/REO sales are down sharply

Figure 1 depicts the monthly realtor sales of existing single-family homes as well as the 12-month moving average of these sales. This smoother moving average line levels out the seasonality and other statistical noise in monthly housing market data. Sales have been on a strong, upward path and the 12-month moving average and monthly sales have now exceeded their peak value during the housing bubble. Sales growth, coming out of the bottom, has been on a stronger trend than the pre-bubble housing market. But over the past year, the 12-month moving average flattened out before resuming Figure 1.

Florida Single-&ĂŵŝůLJ͕džŝƐƟŶŐ,ŽŵĞƐ 30,000

Realtor Sales 25,000

Moving Average

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

0

Source: Florida Realtors

1 According to the Florida Realtors, the benchmark for a balanced market (favoring neither buyer nor seller) is 5.5 months of inventory. Numbers above that indicate a buyers’ market, numbers below a sellers’ market. Other real estate economists suggest a 6 to 9-month inventory as being a balanced market.

2 The Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI), put out by the Mortgage Bankers Association, increased 0.3 percent to 179.0 in July 2017 from June 2017. A decline in the index indicates that lending standards have eased slightly. The index is benchmarked to 100 in March 2012. Relative to that month, mortgages in July 2017 were 79.0% more available. In 2006, the value of this same index approached 900.

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FLORIDA SUMMARY

its climb. This may be a reflection of decreasing affordability in the face of the rapid price appreciation over the past two-plus years, the short-run impact of Hurricane Irma, and a still-depleted inventory of houses for sale. The fundamental underpinnings of the housing market in Florida continue to strengthen. Economic and job growth in Florida are forecasted to continue to outperform the U.S. labor market, despite the temporary effects of Hurricane Irma. As more Baby Boomers continue to reach the end of their working lives, they will continue to fuel housing demand in the state. The demographic and economic drivers bode well for continued population growth via the in-migration of retirees and job seekers to Florida. Furthermore, the population of Florida is also growing naturally, as birth rates exceed death rates. In addition to these sources of domestic population growth, international immigration will also feed into the state’s population growth, with both the economic and hurricane crisis in Puerto Rico feeding into these population inflows. We expect this upward trend in sales will resume as increases in the supply of new housing in the future will help ameliorate rapid price appreciation, given the improving economic and demographic foundations of demand for housing.

GROSS STATE PRODUCT Real Gross State Product (RGSP), or real state GDP growth, in Florida is expected to grow at an average pace, faster than what we are forecasting for U.S. Real GDP growth over the next four years. In 2013, as the state fully and finally exited its recession, Florida’s economy accelerated with a growth rate of 2.1%. This was due to consumers regaining confidence, the housing market recovering, population growing, and healing taking place in the labor market; all of which was building a foundation for even faster economic growth in the state. Growth accelerated to 2.6% in 2014 and 3.6% in 2015, then eased in 2016 to 3.0%, as the national economy only grew 1.5% in that year. Florida is poised for another two-year acceleration in growth during 2019 and 2020 before growth eases again in late 2020 and 2021. The improvement of the fundamentals of the state’s economy helped accelerate growth in 2015 when RGSP expanded at 3.6%, the fastest growth rate in the recovery to date before decelerating in 2016 along with the national economy. In 2018 and 2019, growth will accelerate again if the Trump administration’s tax reform policy is implemented, which will help boost Florida’s economy along with anticipated faster growth

Figure 2 displays median sales prices for single-family existing homes. Median sales prices continue to climb since bottoming out in 2011. The double-digit pace of price increases of 2015 and 2016 have eased $300,000 in 2017. Still, over the past year, the 12-month moving average of median Median Sales Price $250,000 Moving Average sales prices has risen by $19,298. Low inventories of existing homes for sale and sputtering housing starts growth have contributed to an environment where home prices continue to rise at a rapid pace. The shortage in the single-family market will be rectified as the pace of singlefamily housing starts ramp up over the next several years. Single-family housing starts in 2021 are expected to increase by 111% from 2014 levels. 8

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2017

$200,000

$150,000

$100,000

$50,000

$0

Source: Florida Realtors

Figure 2.

Florida Single-&ĂŵŝůLJ͕džŝƐƟŶŐ,ŽŵĞƐ


FLORIDA SUMMARY

for the national economy. Growth in that two-year stretch is expected to be 4.1% in Florida. During 20172021, Florida’s RGSP is expected to grow an average of 3.4% annually. In 2020 and 2021, however, growth will slow as anticipated increases in interest rates work their way through the economy. This average growth of 3.4% during 2017 through 2021 is a faster pace compared to the prior five years (when growth averaged 2.4%). This projected average rate of growth for Florida’s economy is significantly faster than the average of our forecasted real GDP growth for the U.S. economy over the same time frame (2.8%). Housing prices have made substantial progress from the bottom of the housing crisis. During the crisis, median existing home prices fell to a low of $122,200 but now stand at $235,558. This ongoing price appreciation continues to repair the damage done to consumers’ finances in Florida, but even with rapid price appreciation, it will still be another 18 months before prices recover to the levels hit prior to the housing market’s collapse. Housing prices plummeted from the median-price high of $257,800 in June of 2006. Nominal Gross State Product (NGSP) continues on track toward the $1 trillion mark and will be more than $970 billion in 2017. In 2018, Florida will finally break that $1 trillion mark with a NGSP of $1.031 trillion, then continue to climb to $1.108 trillion in 2019, and will hit $1.170 trillion in 2020 and $1.215 trillion in 2021.

PERSONAL INCOME, RETAIL SALES, AND AUTO SALES In 2016, personal income growth in Florida slipped to 3.0%. From there, personal income growth is expected to accelerate to 4.1% in 2017, before accelerating again to 5.4% in 2018 and then to 7.3% in 2019, before slipping to 6.5% in 2020 and 6.0% in 2021. Florida is expected to outpace the nation in real personal income growth, averaging 0.6 percentage points higher than the national average growth for 2017 through 2021. Real personal income growth during 2017-2021 will average 4.1% in Florida.

Nominal personal income will be nearly $1.26 trillion in 2021, marking an increase in personal income in excess of $567 billion from its nadir in 2009. In 2017, real disposable income growth will average 2.5%, down from the previous year’s 1.9% growth rate. Average growth in Florida during 2017-2021 will remain a healthy 4.0%, with U.S. real disposable income growth expected to average 3.2% during the same time frame. Tax reform passage is essential to meeting this growth profile. Financial markets have been in a bull market after the financial crisis thanks in large part to the Federal Reserve Bank’s zero interest rate policy and three massive rounds of quantitative easing. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell to the 6,600 level in March of 2009 but then surged to an excess of 18,000. The stock market spent much of the time after this recovery at or near the 18,000-point mark—until the 2016 presidential election. Since Donald Trump was elected president, the stock market has set multiple record highs, with the Dow touching 24,328 at its peak to date. Whether this rally was driven by expectations of a stronger economy under the Trump administration could be debated. There is no debating that the stock market has continued to set and break through multiple record highs since the election. For those households holding stocks and bonds directly or indirectly through retirement accounts, this bull-run has created trillions of dollars of wealth. The Fed embarked another interest rate hike at their June FOMC meeting and will do so again in December. Interest rate hikes, which are likely to come at this consistent pace going forward as economic growth accelerates, will weigh on future gains in the stock market. However, this faster economic growth will likely outweigh the drag of higher interest rates. Home equity in Florida has not recovered as completely as financial asset wealth, but housing prices have been climbing rapidly. An acceleration in the rate of price appreciation in 2015 to a double-digit pace, which eased in 2017, is creating significant gains in home equity wealth for Floridians; however, for many households in Florida, the effects of the lost home

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

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FLORIDA SUMMARY

equity wealth will continue to weigh upon consumer spending through the end of 2017. Financial asset wealth and home equity wealth should continue to grow nationwide, boosting consumer confidence and spending and helping to finance the retirement of even more Baby Boomers to Florida. With Florida’s strong labor market recovery maintaining its momentum despite Hurricane Irma, wage and salary growth is materializing, home equity is being recovered, and retail spending will remain strong through 2021, with growth averaging 5.8% during 2017-2021.

EMPLOYMENT Hurricane Irma swirled some turbulence into Florida’s labor market, but it did not derail it from existing trends. The pace of Florida’s labor market recovery continues to exceed the recovery of the national job market. Our long-run outlook for Florida remains unchanged by the storm and it is our belief that these trends will continue to be in place through at least 2021, but this gap in job growth will narrow as Florida’s pace of job creation decelerates.

Consumers began to purchase light vehicles at a faster pace after the recession ended, releasing several years of pent-up demand through 2016, and then the pace slowed considerably. However, sustained growth at a lower rate will be enabled by the availability of financing, in some cases interest-free, for the purchase of automobiles and light trucks, faster economic growth, and ongoing improvement of Florida’s labor market.

Payroll job growth was robust in 2016 at 3.5%. That momentum began to dissipate in 2017 and has been temporarily further eroded by the hurricane. Growth decelerated slightly last year from 3.6% in 2015, and it is expected to ease to 2.5% in 2017, to 2.4% in 2018, fall to 2.3% in 2019, and hit 1.8% in 2020. Although job growth is expected to decelerate through our shortrun forecast horizon, Florida will continue to outpace national job growth over the entire forecast horizon (2017-2021) by an average of 0.8 percentage points.

Vehicle registration growth in Florida reflected the venting of that pent-up demand, growing robustly during 2010-2015, when registrations grew at a yearover-year average rate in excess of 12.1%.

The Construction sector is expected to be the fastest sector for job growth among all industrial sectors in Florida’s economy through the end of our 2021 forecast horizon.

The now-vented pent-up demand will be replaced by new demand fueled by faster economic growth in Florida during 2017-2021. Over this period, vehicle registration growth in Florida is expected to average a more modest 1.6%, with growth being at its peak during this time in 2018 at nearly 3.96% before dipping in 2019 to 2.67%, and rising to 2.75% in 2020 before contracting 3.34% in 2021.

Construction job growth is expected to continue to decelerate slightly over the upcoming year but will remain strong, as a surge in employment is occurring in the wake of the hurricane. Housing starts continue to grow in a market where inventories remain at low levels causing a sustained price appreciation for existing single-family homes. Despite the episodic slowing in new home construction growth over the past four years, growth rates in housing starts over the forecast horizon will support construction job growth of 6.8% in 2017, decelerating to 6.3% in 2018, surging to 8.4% in 2019, and easing further to 6.4% in 2020 and 4.3% in 2021.

In 2021, Florida’s new passenger car and truck registrations will reach more than 1.471 million, rising from the 2019 projection of 1.456 million. Motor vehicle sales have been one of the strongest components of consumer spending over the past several years. This growth decelerated in 2016 and slipped again in 2017, but the pro-growth policy of the Trump administration will keep this sector moving forward, extending the streak of rising registrations in Florida to eleven years, and carrying it through to the end of 2020.

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Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2017

Average annual job growth during 2017-2021 will be 6.4%. Employment will average 646,300 in 2021—a level that is 35,800 fewer jobs than the 2006 peak employment in the Construction sector. In Florida, the average salary for construction jobs is currently $48,368, but is likely to rise significantly over the next few years.


FLORIDA SUMMARY

The Professional & Business Services sector will be the second fastest growing sector in the state on average through 2021. Job growth in this sector is expected to be strong, averaging 4.8% during 2017-2021. Job growth eased in 2017 to 3.3% after growing 5.1% in 2016, but will accelerate to 7.3% in 2018. Growth in this sector will ease to 6.9% in 2019 before slowing to 3.4% in 2020 and 3.3% in 2021. The Professional & Business Services sector is comprised primarily of white-collar service providing businesses. The sector includes accounting firms, financial management companies, advertising agencies, computer systems design firms, law firms, architectural and engineering companies, and temporary employment agencies. Average salaries for this sector in Florida are nearly $59,176.3 The Professional & Business Services sector in Florida recovered very quickly from the recession and was the first to recover all its payroll jobs lost during the recession and will continue this strong performance through 2021. The Information sector is a mix of high-tech sectors such as computer programming and software development, both sources of growth, but the sector is weighed down by legacy media outlets including newspapers and magazines, which continue to struggle with structural changes in the gathering and dissemination of information and how to pay for it. Sources of growth within this sector in Florida, such as software development, data processing and hosting, wireless telecommunications, and content creation, will begin to offset the ongoing loss of jobs in traditional media and publishing. Growth finally turned positive in 2013 and stayed in this territory through 2016. Job growth is expected to be slightly positive in 2017, before the sector loses jobs for the first time since 2012. Growth is expected to slip to -1.4% in 2018 before accelerating to 1.5% in 2019 and to 2.0% in 2021. The projected growth path implies an average growth rate of just 0.8% during 2017-2021. 3 According to the most recent Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages: http://oridajobs.org/labor-market-information/datacenter/statistical-programs/quarterly-census-of-employment-andwages

The Education & Health Services sector in Florida grew consistently throughout this historic business cycle. Demand from the state’s large share of residents 65 years and older, who have higher demand for health services, has supported this growth. The future repeal/ replacement of the Affordable Care Act has yet to be worked out in Congress. This creates a cloud of uncertainty over the health sector, but despite this uncertainty job growth will continue, though at a diminished rate. During 2017-2021, employment in this sector is expected to continue to expand at an average rate of 1.4%. In Florida, average salaries in this sector stand at $48,220. Manufacturing employment expanded in Florida at an average rate of 3.6% in 2016, which was the best growth rate in more than 16 years; 2017 should see an easing, but still strong growth. The economic environment for the manufacturing sector is becoming friendlier, as the global economic environment has strengthened recently and the U.S. dollar has weakened from the start of 2017. The Trump administration’s efforts to retain and bring back manufacturing jobs via trade policy may or may not have a significant impact on this sector. These efforts could yield a positive outcome in the end, but in the meantime creates a higher level of uncertainty regarding the outlook for the sector. These developments will eventually weigh on the rate of job growth in the manufacturing sector, but in Florida in 2017, job growth will have averaged 3.3%. We are looking at job growth of 2.8% in manufacturing for 2018, followed by a deceleration to 1.7% in 2019, 0.7% in 2020, and again slowing in 2021 when manufacturing employment will expand at an average rate of 0.1%. Average job growth during 20172021 will thus come in at 1.7%. The State & Local Government sector in Florida is largely enjoying improved revenue flows as housing prices continue to climb; property tax revenue is rising as well. At the state level, there is a growing concern of budget shortfalls. Despite this ongoing improvement in housing prices, revenues for local governments are still below their peaks in the housing boom, even in

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FLORIDA SUMMARY

the fastest growing housing markets around the state. Government budget deficits led to job losses in this sector that persisted for six years, from 2009 through 2014. Despite growing tax revenues, that prolonged budgetary crisis has kept spending growth modest and employment growth subdued.

to intensify as Treasury rates climb, along with the Fed’s increases in the federal funds rate; expected higher rates of inflation and a Trump administration poised to reflate annual budget deficits.

Hurricane Irma is already placing a strain on the state budget, one that is likely to grow as recovery continues and sales tax revenue takes a hit from the tourism sector.

The unemployment rate in Florida has continued to drop from its recession-driven peak level of 11.2% in January 2010 and stands at 3.6% as of October 2017. After five years well above the national rate of unemployment, Florida’s October 2017 unemployment rate is 0.5 percentage points below the national unemployment rate.

As Florida’s population and economy continue to grow, the demand for state and local government services grows as well. To meet this demand, growth in state and local government employment will be necessary, but will not rise to the levels seen during the housing boom. In the near term, the fiscal impact of Hurricane Irma will put a chill on hiring. Average job growth in state and local government during 2017-2021 will be 1.3%, with annual growth rising to 1.5% in 2018 and 1.7% in 2019. The 2018-2019 growth rates are expected to be the fastest since before the recession. On the other hand, the outlook for Federal Government employment growth in Florida will begin to worsen over the near term forecast horizon. Average job growth in the Federal Government sector in Florida will average 0.9% during 2017-2021, with growth turning negative in 2021, following the temporary hiring surge during the census year in 2020. Any long-term solution to our federal deficit and debt problems will involve additional revenue, but ultimately cuts in discretionary federal spending will be needed and entitlement programs, which continue to consume an increasing piece of the federal revenue pie, will have to be reformed. The proposed fiscal policies of the Trump administration, tax reform, and a possible infrastructure spending bill, will exacerbate the national debt situation over the next four years. As the Federal Reserve begins to move more quickly with interest rate hikes, the burden of servicing a national debt that is currently more than $20.57 trillion and poised to go higher will require a larger share of federal tax revenue. The pain of running four years of trillion-dollar deficits has been dampened by historically low interest rates on Treasury Bonds. That pain is going

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Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2017

UNEMPLOYMENT

Florida’s labor force participation rate in October 2017 stood at 59.4%, which is up from 56.3% one year earlier. The national labor force participation rate stood at 62.7% in October 2017, which is down 0.1 points from October 2016. This is the lowest level for the national labor force participation rate since February of 1978 and is down 3.3 percentage points from the start of the recession. The labor force participation rate is calculated as the percentage of the population aged 16 and older who are counted as participating in the labor force. The number of retirees in that population, who are obviously older than sixteen, but who no longer are working or seeking work, push down the overall labor force participation rate. Some of the decline in the labor force participation rate, but certainly not all of it, can be attributed to the aging of the Baby Boomer generation. The relatively higher share of the population in Florida who are of retirement age explains why the state’s labor force participation rate is lower than the national rate, and the continued migration of Baby Boomer retirees to the Sunshine State should continue to weigh on the participation rate. In October 2017, Florida’s population over the age of sixteen grew by 307,000 year over year, while its labor force grew by 216,000. We are forecasting strong economic growth in Florida over the next several years as well as continued growth in payroll jobs. This faster economic and job growth will generate a more rapidly growing labor force, making additional progress in reducing the unemployment rate


FLORIDA SUMMARY

increasingly challenging. After 2016’s growth of 2.1%, we expect the labor force to continue to grow near this level during 2017-2021 at an average rate of 2.0, despite the downward pressure from retiree migration. Going forward, job seekers will be encouraged by the robust payroll job growth in the state and become motivated to enter or reenter Florida’s labor force. This will result in slower declines in the unemployment rate that will eventually level out in the latter portion of our forecast horizon. Nationally, and in Florida, the level of workers who are working part-time but not by choice, and workers marginally attached to the labor force—defined as workers who are neither working nor currently looking for work, but indicate that they want and are available for a job, and have looked for work in the past 12 months—remain elevated. When adding these workers and discouraged workers—defined as workers who are currently not working and did not look for a job in the four weeks preceding the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly survey of households—to the headline unemployment figure, U-3, we get the broadest measure of unemployment estimated by the BLS, known as U-6. Looking at U-6, we see a labor market that is still scarred, as U-6 in Florida averaged 9.5% during the 4th quarter of 2016 through the 3rd quarter of 2017, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Meanwhile, the national rate of U-6 averaged 8.9% over that same time period. U-6 unemployment in Florida is well down from its average readings of 12.8% in 2014, 14.3% in 2013, 16% in 2012, 17.6% in 2011, and down 9.0 percentage points from its peak average rate of 19.3% in 2010 (the nation’s U-6 averaged 16.7% in 2010).

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F L O R I D A TA B L E S

Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Personal Income (Bil. $)

798.9

856.5

920.0

Personal Income and GSP 947.2 985.9 1039.0

Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago)

0.7 1.2

7.2 5.3

7.4 5.0

3.0 2.4

4.1 3.4

5.4 5.2

1115.1

1187.8

1259.2

7.3 6.7

6.5 6.2

6.0 5.3

Personal Income (Bil. 2009$) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago)

750.1 -0.7 -0.2

790.1 5.3 3.7

845.5 7.0 4.7

860.9 1.8 1.2

882.6 2.5 1.8

917.6 4.0 3.7

968.9 5.6 5.0

1011.4 4.4 4.0

1051.5 4.0 3.1

Disp. Income (Bil. 2009$) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago)

673.1 -1.8 -1.4

706.4 5.0 3.5

751.4 6.4 3.5

765.4 1.9 2.5

784.5 2.5 2.4

813.0 3.6 3.4

857.0 5.4 3.8

894.6 4.4 3.2

930.4 4.0 3.0

GSP (Bil. $)

794.6

832.3

883.9

(%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. 2009$)

4.0 744.6

4.7 763.7

6.2 791.4

926.8

970.3

1031.5

1096.8

1156.5

1215.9

4.9 815.1

4.7 837.9

6.3 872.3

6.3 908.1

5.4 936.3

5.1 962.6

(%Ch Year ago)

2.1

2.6

3.6

3.0

2.8

4.1

4.1

3.1

2.8

Employment

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change Year Ago) 2.1 2.3 1.6 2.5 3.7 2.6 1.9 1.7

1.5

Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%)

0.7 7.1

1.3 6.2

0.7 5.3

2.1 4.9

3.0 4.2

2.0 3.7

1.8 3.7

1.8 3.8

1.5 3.8

U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

7.4

6.2

5.3

4.9

4.4

3.9

3.8

3.9

4.0

NonFarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change Year Ago) Total Nonfarm U.S.

1.6

1.9

2.1

1.8

1.5

1.6

1.6

1.2

0.9

2.5

3.2

3.6

3.5

2.5

2.4

2.3

1.7

1.5

0.4 6.9

0.9 8.6

1.9 8.8

-1.1 9.5

-0.7 6.8

-0.8 6.3

-2.0 8.4

-1.3 6.4

-0.7 4.3

1.5 -0.2

3.0 1.2

3.4 1.5

3.6 4.0

3.3 0.5

2.8 0.4

1.7 0.5

0.7 0.2

0.1 -0.1

Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade

2.5 2.7 1.0

3.8 3.2 2.0

4.3 4.7 2.3

3.4 4.3 1.3

4.7 1.7 3.5

3.9 2.8 2.6

2.2 1.2 1.6

1.0 0.8 1.7

0.2 0.7 1.2

Retail Trade Financial Activities Prof. and Business Services

2.7 2.7 4.0

3.8 1.7 4.2

3.7 2.4 5.0

2.1 2.4 5.1

1.3 2.0 3.3

-0.9 3.8 7.3

-0.4 3.1 6.9

-0.1 1.6 3.4

-0.1 1.5 3.3

Edu & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information

1.7 4.0 0.4

2.7 4.6 1.5

3.6 4.5 0.3

3.6 3.6 0.3

2.5 2.1 0.0

1.1 0.8 -1.4

0.7 0.3 1.5

1.5 0.6 2.0

1.3 1.3 2.0

-0.6 -0.3

-0.5 -0.1

2.0 0.5

2.6 1.1

1.3 1.0

0.4 1.5

0.5 1.7

5.2 1.2

-2.9 1.2

Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods

Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't.

Population (thous) (%Ch Year ago)

1.3

1.6

1.8

1.8

1.7

1.7

1.5

1.5

1.4

237.9 14.8

299.0 26.3

339.9 14.6

340.7 0.3

345.7 1.6

305.3 -11.1

298.2 -2.3

294.5 -1.3

293.8 -0.2

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous)

80.6

79.7

103.2

112.7

Housing 114.5

146.1

163.7

173.5

179.3

Housing Starts Single Family (thous) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

54.6 26.0

56.0 23.7

68.2 35.0

77.4 35.3

83.2 31.3

104.1 42.0

113.7 50.0

116.5 57.0

118.2 61.1

1.6

1.8

0.3

3.0

2.7

2.4

Net Migration (thous) (%Ch Year ago)

(%Ch Year ago)

14

Population and Migration 19624.7 19936.4 20291.6 20656.5 21014.4 21361.8 21683.2 22000.5 22317.2

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2017

Consumer Prices 1.6 2.5

3.0


F L O R I D A TA B L E S

Table 2. Quarterly Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida* 2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

Personal Income and GSP 1087.2 1105.9 1124.5 1142.7

2020Q1

2020Q2

2020Q3

2020Q4

2021Q1

2021Q2

Personal Income (Bil. $)

999.7

1014.5

1029.5

1046.7

1065.3

1161.5

1178.8

1196.7

1214.4

1234.3

1251.3

Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) Personal Income (Bil. 2009$)

4.8 4.3 890.6

4.2 4.3 900.9

4.7 5.0 911.2

6.0 5.5 922.9

6.6 6.1 935.5

7.2 6.6 951.3

7.4 6.7 963.3

7.4 6.8 975.4

7.3 6.7 985.7

6.8 6.5 996.6

6.6 6.3 1006.2

6.4 6.1 1016.4

6.3 5.8 1026.3

6.3 5.6 1038.0

6.2 5.4 1047.5

3.4 2.9

3.1 3.1

3.3 3.5

4.5 3.9

5.0 4.5

5.6 5.1

5.7 5.1

5.7 5.0

5.4 4.7

4.8 4.4

4.5 4.1

4.2 3.8

4.1 3.5

4.2 3.3

4.1 3.2

Disp. Income (Bil. 2009$) Florida (%Ch Year ago)

790.3 3.2

799.1 2.7

807.6 2.9

817.6 4.2

827.8 4.7

841.8 5.3

852.0 5.5

862.5 5.5

871.7 5.3

881.3 4.7

890.1 4.5

898.9 4.2

908.1 4.2

918.3 4.2

927.0 4.1

U.S. (%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch Year ago)

2.8 987.2 4.2

3.1 1004.7 5.1

3.3 1022.2 5.6

3.5 1040.3 7.2

3.7 1058.8 7.2

3.9 1074.6 7.0

3.8 1089.4 6.6

3.8 1104.2 6.1

3.7 1118.9 5.7

3.4 1134.8 5.6

3.2 1148.6 5.4

3.1 1163.4 5.4

3.0 1179.2 5.4

3.0 1194.6 5.3

3.0 1208.7 5.2

GSP (Bil. 2009$) (%Ch Year ago)

846.2 2.2

856.6 3.1

867.0 3.4

877.6 4.9

888.2 5.0

896.7 4.7

904.4 4.3

912.2 3.9

919.2 3.5

926.6 3.3

932.6 3.1

939.2 3.0

946.8 3.0

953.3 2.9

959.6 2.9

Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%)

3.9 2.6 3.7

3.4 2.0 3.6

2.2 1.6 3.8

1.7 1.8 3.8

1.6 1.7 3.8

1.6 1.7 3.8

1.4 1.5 3.8

U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

4.1

3.9

4.0

4.0

3.9

4.0

4.0

4.0

0.7

Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago)

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change Year Ago) 2.6 2.2 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.8 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 4.0

3.9

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.9

3.9

NonFarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change Year Ago) Total Nonfarm U.S.

1.4

1.5

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.7

1.6

1.6

1.4

1.3

1.4

1.2

1.1

1.0

2.3

2.1

2.3

2.8

2.6

2.6

2.4

2.3

2.0

1.8

1.8

1.7

1.7

1.6

1.4

Mining Construction Manufacturing

0.1 7.0 3.7

-0.6 5.3 2.9

0.3 5.9 3.3

-1.3 7.1 2.8

-1.8 7.0 2.2

-1.9 7.8 2.2

-2.0 8.5 1.7

-2.0 8.7 1.4

-1.9 8.6 1.3

-1.6 7.9 0.9

-1.4 6.8 0.7

-1.1 5.8 0.8

-1.0 5.0 0.6

-0.9 4.5 0.4

-0.7 4.2 0.1

Nondurable Goods Durable Goods

0.3 5.3

0.0 4.3

1.0 4.4

0.6 3.8

0.0 3.1

0.3 3.1

0.3 2.3

0.7 1.7

0.7 1.5

0.3 1.1

0.2 0.9

0.2 1.0

0.1 0.8

0.1 0.5

Florida

0.0

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

1.9

3.1

3.4

2.6

2.0

1.5

1.1

1.1

1.0

0.9

0.9

0.7

0.6

0.7

0.1 0.8

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities

5.1 0.2 2.1

3.8 -0.5 2.9

2.3 -0.8 3.8

2.3 -1.3 4.1

2.0 -0.8 4.3

1.7 -0.7 3.9

1.7 -0.3 3.2

1.6 -0.1 2.8

1.4 -0.4 2.3

1.6 -0.5 1.9

1.7 -0.2 1.6

1.7 0.1 1.5

1.7 0.2 1.4

1.4 -0.1 1.4

1.3 -0.1 1.6

3.8 1.6 1.5 -0.3

5.0 1.1 0.7 -0.2

6.3 1.0 0.5 -0.8

8.9 1.2 1.7 -2.6

9.0 1.0 0.2 -2.1

8.8 0.7 0.3 -0.8

7.6 0.6 0.3 1.4

6.3 0.7 0.2 2.9

4.9 0.8 0.3 2.7

3.8 1.2 0.3 2.3

3.2 1.4 0.3 1.6

3.0 1.6 0.7 1.7

3.4 1.6 1.0 2.2

3.5 1.6 1.1 2.1

3.5 1.4 1.4 1.8

0.1 1.4

0.4 1.5

0.2 1.7

0.5 1.4

0.4 1.5

0.6 1.6

0.6 1.7

0.5 1.7

0.5 1.7

1.8 1.6

14.4 1.3

4.3 1.1

0.3 0.9

-0.3 0.9

-11.0 1.2

Prof. and Business Services Edu & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't.

Population and Migration Population (thous) (%Ch Year ago) Net Migration (thous)

21,156.9 21,241.7 21,320.6 21,402.0 21,483.0 21,563.6 21,643.7 21,723.1 21,802.5 21,881.8 21,961.0 22,040.1 22,119.1 22,198.3 22,277.5

1.8 88.4

1.7 79.6

1.7 73.8

1.6 76.2

1.5 75.7

1.5 75.3

1.5 74.8

1.5 74.1

1.5 74.0

1.5 73.8

1.5 73.7

1.5 73.6

1.5 73.4

1.4 73.4

1.4 73.5

6.8

-1.6

-6.7

-21.7

-14.3

-5.4

1.3

-2.7

-2.3

-2.0

-1.5

-0.8

-0.8

-0.5

-0.3

114.3

131.4

144.4

151.2

157.5

158.6

Housing 162.0 165.4

168.7

170.4

172.8

174.8

175.9

177.4

178.9

Housing Starts Single Family (thous)

84.4

95.1

102.7

107.6

111.1

112.2

113.0

114.2

115.3

115.7

116.2

117.1

117.0

117.0

118.0

Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

29.9

36.3

41.8

43.6

46.5

46.3

49.0

51.3

53.4

54.8

56.6

57.7

58.9

60.4

60.9

2.4

2.4

3.2

3.2

3.4

3.0

3.0

3.0

2.8

2.7

2.5

2.4

2.4

(%Ch Year ago)

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous)

Consumer Prices (%Ch Year ago)

3.1

3.0

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

15


F L O R I D A TA B L E S

Table 3. Employment Quarterly*

2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

2020Q1

2020Q2

2020Q3

2020Q4

2021Q1

2021Q2

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

8,674.0 8,728.0 8,779.4 8,835.3 8,896.2 8,951.3 8,994.0 9,036.0 9,074.4 9,111.4 9,159.1 9,188.1 9,225.9 9,257.1 9,290.1

Manufacturing

372.0

374.0

377.3

378.8

380.0

382.3

383.7

384.2

384.9

385.6

386.4

387.1

387.3

387.1

386.7

Durable Goods

256.4

258.3

261.5

263.4

264.5

266.3

267.5

267.9

268.6

269.3

269.9

270.6

270.8

270.6

270.4

Wood Products

14.2

14.4

15.0

15.6

16.3

16.9

17.3

17.4

17.5

17.6

17.8

18.0

18.2

18.3

18.5

Computer & Electronics

42.4

42.5

43.0

43.3

43.5

43.3

43.1

42.8

42.7

42.8

42.8

42.9

42.9

42.8

42.8

Transportation Equipment

43.1

43.7

44.2

44.3

44.2

44.3

44.4

44.4

44.5

44.7

44.8

45.0

45.0

44.8

44.6

115.5

115.7

115.8

115.4

115.5

116.0

116.1

116.3

116.4

116.4

116.4

116.5

116.5

116.4

116.4

32.1

32.2

32.4

32.4

32.5

32.8

32.9

33.1

33.3

33.3

33.4

33.5

33.5

33.6

33.7

Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

8,302.0 8,354.1 8,402.1 8,456.5 8,516.2 8,569.0 8,610.3 8,651.8 8,689.4 8,725.7 8,772.7 8,801.1 8,838.6 8,870.1 8,903.4 5.7

5.7

5.7

5.6

5.6

5.6

5.6

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.4

Construction

516.3

523.9

532.0

542.2

552.5

564.7

577.5

589.5

600.1

609.2

616.9

623.4

629.9

636.7

643.1

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

286.6

289.0

290.6

291.3

292.4

293.2

293.8

294.6

295.5

295.8

296.4

296.8

297.4

297.9

298.7

Wholesale Trade

355.6

358.1

359.2

360.6

362.8

364.1

365.1

366.4

367.8

369.9

371.4

372.8

374.0

375.1

376.1

Retail Trade Information Prof. & Bus. Services

1,115.1 1,115.7 1,107.6 1,105.1 1,105.8 1,107.7 1,104.8 1,103.6 1,101.9 1,102.7 1,102.3 1,104.7 1,103.7 1,101.1 1,100.7 137.1

136.5

135.5

134.1

134.2

135.5

137.4

137.9

137.8

138.6

139.6

140.3

140.8

141.5

142.1

1,351.7 1,377.1 1,408.7 1,440.6 1,472.9 1,498.8 1,515.3 1,531.3 1,544.9 1,555.2 1,563.6 1,577.9 1,598.1 1,610.3 1,618.9

Admin. & Support

687.7

708.9

734.1

758.4

781.6

796.2

801.4

807.0

811.1

813.1

813.7

819.5

831.8

837.0

839.6

Prof. Sci & Tech

558.7

562.8

568.9

576.2

585.1

596.2

607.3

617.6

626.9

635.0

642.1

650.4

657.8

664.6

670.4

Mgmt. of Co.

105.3

105.4

105.7

106.0

106.3

106.4

106.6

106.7

106.8

107.2

107.8

108.1

108.4

108.7

108.9

Financial Activities

563.5

569.6

576.4

582.0

587.7

592.1

595.0

598.2

601.2

603.2

604.7

607.1

609.4

611.5

614.1

Real Estate & Rent

189.7

191.1

192.6

193.8

195.1

196.2

196.9

197.9

198.8

199.6

200.3

201.1

202.0

203.0

203.9

Fin. & Insurance

373.9

378.5

383.8

388.2

392.6

395.9

398.1

400.3

402.4

403.6

404.4

406.0

407.4

408.5

410.2

Edu. & Health Service Education Services

1,281.2 1,283.7 1,287.4 1,289.9 1,293.5 1,292.4 1,295.4 1,299.3 1,303.9 1,308.1 1,313.0 1,320.1 1,325.3 1,329.0 1,331.8 162.2

162.3

161.1

160.4

159.8

159.2

159.1

159.1

158.9

158.7

158.3

158.2

157.8

157.6

157.7

Health Services

1,119.0 1,121.5 1,126.3 1,129.5 1,133.7 1,133.1 1,136.3 1,140.2 1,145.0 1,149.3 1,154.6 1,161.9 1,167.5 1,171.4 1,174.1

Leisure & Hospitality

1,207.3 1,208.9 1,209.1 1,210.4 1,210.2 1,212.1 1,213.3 1,213.3 1,214.0 1,215.3 1,217.4 1,221.7 1,226.6 1,228.9 1,234.5

Other Services Government

369.5

370.7

371.0

371.0

370.9

371.0

371.1

371.4

371.4

372.4

372.6

372.8

373.1

373.7

374.4

1,112.5 1,115.1 1,118.9 1,123.6 1,127.8 1,131.7 1,136.2 1,140.8 1,145.3 1,149.9 1,169.5 1,157.9 1,154.8 1,159.0 1,163.4

Federal Gov't.

139.5

139.4

139.6

139.8

140.0

140.2

140.4

State & Local Gov't

973.0

975.7

979.4

983.8

987.7

991.5

995.8 1,000.2 1,004.6 1,007.2 1,008.8 1,011.3 1,013.7 1,016.7 1,020.5

*Quarterly at an annual rate

16

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2017

140.5

140.7

142.7

160.6

146.6

141.1

142.3

143.0


F L O R I D A TA B L E S

Table 4. Employment Annual

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

7,581.6

7,823.4

8,106.0

8,809.8

9,013.9

9,171.1

9,308.9

Manufacturing

322.3

331.8

343.1

355.4

367.2

377.5

383.8

386.6

386.9

Durable Goods

215.0

223.2

232.8

240.8

252.1

261.9

267.6

270.1

270.6

Wood Products

10.4

11.3

12.6

13.5

13.9

15.3

17.3

17.9

18.6

Computer & Electronics

41.0

40.7

41.1

41.4

42.0

43.1

43.0

42.9

42.7

Transportation Equipment

36.4

37.5

39.4

40.9

42.3

44.1

44.4

44.9

44.5

107.3

108.6

110.2

114.6

115.2

115.6

116.2

116.4

116.3

29.5

29.8

30.3

31.4

31.9

32.4

33.0

33.4

33.7

7,259.3

7,491.5

7,763.0

8,032.2

8,232.1

8,432.2

8,630.1

8,784.5

8,922.0

5.7

5.7

5.8

5.8

5.7

5.7

5.6

5.5

5.4

Construction

365.9

397.3

432.4

473.3

505.7

537.7

583.0

619.8

646.3

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

246.9

254.8

266.7

278.2

282.9

290.8

294.3

296.6

298.6

Wholesale Trade

320.9

327.5

334.8

339.3

351.1

360.2

365.9

372.0

376.4

1,004.8

1,043.0

1,081.1

1,103.4

1,118.2

1,108.6

1,104.5

1,103.4

1,101.9

134.2

136.1

136.6

136.9

137.0

135.1

137.1

139.8

142.5

1,117.5

1,164.3

1,222.2

1,285.0

1,327.9

1,424.8

1,522.6

1,573.7

1,626.0

Admin. & Support

558.9

585.0

618.9

654.7

673.8

745.8

803.9

819.5

844.2

Prof. Sci & Tech

467.4

485.1

506.6

529.9

549.5

573.2

612.0

646.3

672.8

91.2

94.2

96.7

100.4

104.6

105.8

106.6

107.9

109.0

Financial Activities

512.8

521.3

534.1

546.8

557.9

578.9

596.6

606.1

615.1

Real Estate & Rent

165.5

171.0

176.8

180.7

187.1

193.2

197.5

200.7

204.3

Fin. & Insurance

347.3

350.3

357.3

366.2

370.8

385.8

399.2

405.4

410.8

1,128.1

1,158.8

1,200.1

1,243.4

1,275.0

1,288.6

1,297.7

1,316.6

1,333.5

Education Services

142.5

147.5

151.8

156.8

161.3

160.9

159.1

158.3

157.9

Health Services

985.6

1,011.3

1,048.3

1,086.7

1,113.7

1,127.7

1,138.6

1,158.3

1,175.7

1,037.4

1,085.2

1,134.1

1,175.3

1,200.0

1,209.6

1,213.2

1,220.3

1,236.3

309.2

323.1

333.7

349.7

364.6

370.9

371.2

372.7

374.5

1,075.9

1,074.3

1,081.3

1,095.1

1,106.1

1,121.3

1,138.5

1,158.0

1,165.5

Federal Gov't.

132.0

131.3

133.9

137.4

139.2

139.7

140.4

147.8

143.2

State & Local Gov't

943.9

943.0

947.4

957.7

966.9

981.6

998.1

1,010.3

1,022.3

Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

Retail Trade Information Prof. & Bus. Services

Mgmt. of Co.

Edu. & Health Service

Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government

8,387.6 8599.33

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

17


F L O R I D A TA B L E S

Table 5. Personal Income-Quarterly*

2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

2020Q1

2020Q2

2020Q3

2020Q4

2021Q1

2021Q2

Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

999.7 1014.5 1029.5 1046.7 1065.3 1087.2 1105.9 1124.5 1142.7 1161.5 1178.8 1196.7 1214.4 1234.3 1251.3

Wages & Salaries

452.8

460.1

466.9

474.0

481.4

489.9

497.8

504.9

512.0

519.7

526.9

533.9

541.4

549.1

556.4

Other Labor Income

94.3

94.9

95.4

96.0

96.7

97.8

98.7

99.6

100.4

101.7

102.6

103.7

104.8

106.1

106.8

Nonfarm

53.1

54.3

55.2

56.2

57.4

58.4

59.2

60.0

60.8

61.5

62.1

63.0

63.8

64.3

65.1

Farm

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

Property Income

267.4

270.4

275.3

282.1

289.6

297.5

304.9

312.7

320.0

325.6

331.6

337.6

344.0

351.0

357.6

Transfer Payments

199.7

203.0

205.3

208.0

210.7

215.4

218.3

221.3

224.4

229.2

232.6

236.3

239.5

244.2

246.8

71.6

72.3

73.0

73.8

74.8

76.2

77.3

78.3

79.3

80.6

81.4

82.5

83.6

85.0

85.9

Social Insurance

Billions 2009 $ Personal Income

890.6

900.9

911.2

922.9

935.5

951.3

963.3

975.4

985.7

996.6 1006.2 1016.4 1026.3 1038.0 1047.5

Wages & Salaries

403.4

408.6

413.3

418.0

422.8

428.6

433.6

438.0

441.6

445.9

449.7

453.5

457.5

461.8

465.8

Other Labor Income

84.0

84.3

84.5

84.7

84.9

85.6

86.0

86.4

86.6

87.3

87.6

88.1

88.5

89.2

89.4

Nonfarm

47.3

48.2

48.9

49.6

50.4

51.1

51.6

52.0

52.4

52.7

53.0

53.5

53.9

54.1

54.5

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

Property Income

238.2

240.1

243.7

248.7

254.3

260.3

265.6

271.2

276.0

279.4

283.0

286.8

290.8

295.2

299.3

Transfer Payments

177.9

180.2

181.7

183.4

185.1

188.5

190.1

191.9

193.5

196.7

198.6

200.7

202.4

205.4

206.6

63.8

64.2

64.6

65.1

65.7

66.7

67.3

67.9

68.4

69.1

69.5

70.0

70.6

71.5

71.9

Farm

Social Insurance

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

1374.8 1399.6 1407.4 1420.0 1429.0 1446.6 1454.6 1455.8 1466.9 1486.5 1494.1 1504.1 1507.0 1490.8 1474.9

Retail Sales (Billions $)

353.5

359.0

361.5

365.3

369.8

374.2

379.4

383.7

389.9

397.0

403.7

410.2

416.2

420.5

424.7

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2009$)

314.9

318.8

320.0

322.1

324.7

327.4

330.4

332.8

336.4

340.6

344.6

348.4

351.8

353.7

355.5

*Quarterly at an annual rate

18

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2017


F L O R I D A TA B L E S

Table 6. Personal Income-Annual

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

798.9

856.5

920.0

947.2

985.9

1039.0

1115.1

1187.8

1259.2

Wages & Salaries

358.4

378.9

404.4

424.1

444.3

470.6

501.1

530.5

560.1

Other Labor Income

81.3

82.9

87.9

89.6

93.0

95.8

99.1

103.2

107.4

Nonfarm

38.7

44.9

47.4

49.6

52.2

55.8

59.6

62.6

65.6

1.1

1.2

2.1

1.0

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

Property Income

211.7

233.8

257.0

257.8

264.7

279.3

308.8

334.7

359.7

Transfer Payments

161.3

171.4

181.0

187.9

197.8

206.7

219.8

234.4

248.3

56.8

59.9

63.1

66.1

70.2

73.5

77.8

82.0

86.5

Farm

Social Insurance

Billions 2009 $ Personal Income

750.1

790.1

845.5

860.9

882.6

917.6

968.9

1011.4

1051.5

Wages & Salaries

336.5

349.6

371.7

385.4

397.8

415.7

435.5

451.7

467.7

Other Labor Income

76.3

76.4

80.8

81.4

83.2

84.6

86.1

87.9

89.7

Nonfarm

36.3

41.4

43.5

45.1

46.7

49.3

51.8

53.3

54.8

1.1

1.1

1.9

0.9

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

Property Income

198.8

215.6

236.2

234.3

237.0

246.7

268.3

285.0

300.3

Transfer Payments

151.4

158.1

166.3

170.8

177.1

182.6

191.0

199.6

207.3

53.3

55.2

58.0

60.1

62.9

64.9

67.6

69.8

72.3

1101.0

1224.2

1337.3

1352.7

1317.1

1414.0

1456.0

1497.9

1471.1

Retail Sales (Billions $)

294.4

313.1

328.1

337.4

350.1

363.9

381.8

406.8

427.0

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2009$)

276.4

288.9

301.6

306.7

313.4

321.4

331.8

346.3

356.6

Farm

Social Insurance

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

19


FLORIDA CHARTS

Florida & U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 FL Unemployment Rate U.S. Unemployment Rate

Florida Construction Employment (Thousands)

700.0 600.0 500.0 400.0 300.0

20

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2017


FLORIDA CHARTS

Florida Consumer Price Index (% change year ago)

6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4%

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 FL CPI

Florida Education & Health Services Employment 1400.0

(Thousands)

1300.0 1200.0 1100.0 1000.0 900.0 800.0

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

21


FLORIDA CHARTS

Florida Federal Government Employment (Thousands)

170.0 160.0 150.0 140.0 130.0 120.0

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

Florida Financial Activities Employment 620.0 600.0 580.0 560.0 540.0 520.0 500.0 480.0 460.0

22

(Thousands)

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2017


FLORIDA CHARTS

Florida Information Employment 170.0

(Thousands)

160.0 150.0 140.0 130.0

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

Florida Gross State Product 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6%

(% change year ago)

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 FL Gross State Product

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

23


FLORIDA CHARTS

Florida Housing Starts (thousands)

300.0 250.0

6.0%

200.0 150.0

5.0%

100.0

4.0%

50.0 0.0

7.0%

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Total Private Housing Starts 30 year Mortgage Rates

3.0%

Florida Leisure & Hospitality Employment 1250.0 1200.0 1150.0 1100.0 1050.0 1000.0 950.0 900.0 850.0

24

(Thousands)

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2017


FLORIDA CHARTS

Florida Manufacturing Employment 420.0

(Thousands)

400.0 380.0 360.0 340.0 320.0 300.0

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

New Passenger Car & Light Truck Registrations 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50%

(% change year ago)

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

25


FLORIDA CHARTS

Florida Personal Income (% change year ago)

12% 9% 6% 3% 0% -3% -6% -9%

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

Florida Professional & Business Services Employment 1700.0 1600.0 1500.0 1400.0 1300.0 1200.0 1100.0 1000.0 900.0

26

(Thousands)

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2017


FLORIDA CHARTS

Florida Real Gross State Product (% change year ago)

10% 5% 0% -5% -10%

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

Florida State & Local Government Employment 1040.0

(Thousands)

1020.0 1000.0 980.0 960.0 940.0 920.0 900.0

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

Florida Trade, Transportation & Utilities Employment 1800.0

(Thousands)

1700.0 1600.0 1500.0 1400.0

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

27


FLORIDA CHARTS

Florida Unemployment Rate (percent)

14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Unemployment Rate

Florida Population (Thousands)

23000.0 22000.0 21000.0 20000.0 19000.0 18000.0 17000.0 16000.0

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

Florida Employment (Thousands)

9500.0 9000.0 8500.0 8000.0 7500.0 7000.0

28

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Wage & Salary Employment

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2017


FLORIDA NEWS SUMMARIES

Still waiting for FEMA in Texas and Florida after hurricanes • Florida residents have been plagued by long wait times in the wake of devastating Hurricane Irma, as days have turned to weeks without many people receiving assistance. • Because of the one-two punch of Harvey and Irma, wait times have far exceeded those of past disasters. While many praise the initial efforts of FEMA and its field workers, the magnitude of the disasters has left many people without help. • FEMA’s rejection of applications has also left many Florida residents angry, as the agency has denied 432,000 of 1.8 million requests for help.

has largely been attributed to an environment of low interest rates. • The news comes on the heels of Florida Community Bank breaking $10 billion in assets as it looks to expand its Florida presence. Source: South Florida Business Journal, November 28, 2017

New Research from FSAE shows economic impact of associations in Florida

Source: The New York Times, October 22, 2017

• The Florida Society of Association Executives announced recently that the 1,000 largest associations in Florida contributed $3.7 billion to the state’s economy in 2016.

Four Florida cities vie for second Amazon headquarters

• This data indicates that not-for-profit groups are a key driver in the state’s economy, as these organizations employ 15,000 people but also catalyze local business. • Florida has the third largest concentration of notfor-profit associations in the country, trailing only Washington, D.C. and Chicago.

• Despite the competition posed by the 238 cities that have applied to be the home of Amazon’s second headquarters, four Florida cities have thrown their hats in the ring to be the site of the coveted campus.

Source: Florida Trend, December 6, 2017

• Jacksonville, Orlando, Tampa, and Miami have all submitted proposals, and although they are all attractive, many site selection firms view Miami as the most viable of the four.

Small business owners across Florida feel good about economy, study says

• Regardless of what city “wins,” the new headquarters is expected to come with 50,000 jobs with an average wage exceeding $100,000. In addition to real estate options and tax incentives, Amazon is evaluating education systems, cost of living, and several other metrics. Source: 98.5 KTK, October 24, 2017

Florida Community Bank agrees to acquire Daviebased bank for $88 million • The parent company of Florida Community Bank, FCB Holdings Inc., announced recently that it will acquire the similarly-named Floridian Community Bank for $88.1 million.

• Florida small business owners have seen an uptick in small business sentiment, according to Thumbtack. com. Recent data shows that two-thirds of Florida small businesses feel confident about the economy. • Despite these findings, only 44 percent of small businesses with employees reported they were currently hiring, which ranked November among the slowest hiring months in 2017. • By comparison, Washington State showed the highest small business sentiment, as 69 percent of its small businesses indicated confidence in the state of the economy. Source: South Florida Business Journal, December 7, 2017

• Floridian Community had previously been the 17thlargest bank in South Florida, but the move reflects a nationwide trend towards bank consolidation, which Institute for Economic Competitiveness

29


D E LT O N A – D AY T O N A B E A C H – O R M O N D B E A C H

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Deltona–Daytona–Ormond Beach MSA is comprised of Volusia and Flagler Counties. It is located on the east coast of Florida and is notable for special events that occur throughout the year such as Bike Week. It is home to NASCAR headquarters and the Daytona International Speedway which hosts popular races such as the Daytona 500.

The Deltona–Daytona–Ormond Beach Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show mixed levels of growth in the economic indicators measured in this forecast relative to the other MSAs studied. Personal income is expected to average 6.1 percent growth, while the real per capita income level will average $37,900. The average annual wage will be the second lowest of the studied areas at $45,700. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 4.1 percent, the highest of the studied MSAs. Population growth will average 1.5 percent. Gross Metro Product will be at an average level of 17,137.63 million dollars. The employment growth rate is expected to average 1.7 percent each year. Unemployment will average 4.8 percent. The Deltona MSA will experience the most growth in the Construction and Mining sector, with an average growth rate of 5.4 percent annually. The Professional and Business Services sector will see the second highest average growth in the Deltona MSA at 4.6 percent annually. The Financial and Education-Health Services sectors follow with an average annual growth rate of 2.6 percent and 1.5 percent, respectively. The Federal Government sector is expected to experience a decline, with a growth rate of -0.1 percent.

QUICK FACTS: •

Volusia County population estimate of 500,800 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

Flagler County population estimate of 99,956 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

Civilian labor force of 297,551 in October 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

An unemployment rate of 3.7% as of October 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 10,877 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database).

TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: •

Volusia County Schools – 7,503

Halifax Health – 4,709

Florida Hospital Volusia-Flagler Market – 3,256

County of Volusia – 3,341

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES

Daytona State College – 1,568

Volusia-Flagler unemployment drops in September

Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University – 1,423

Florida Health Care Plans, Inc. – 916

Frontier Communications – 800

Department of Transportation – 700

Bert Fish Medical Center – 700

Source: Volusia County Department of Economic Development and Enterprise Florida

• Both Volusia and Flagler Counties have seen a decline in their unemployment rates compared to last year, with the area bringing in a total of 8,700 new jobs in September. • In Volusia County, the unemployment rate fell to 3.6% in September 2017, leaving the county tied for the 27th highest rate among counties in Florida. The unemployment rate was 5.2% in September 2016. • Flagler County has a slightly higher rate for this September compared to Volusia, with a 3.9% unemployment rate. This puts Flagler as having the 18th highest unemployment rate among Florida counties. In September 2016, the unemployment rate was 5.6%. Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, October 20, 2017

30

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2017


D E LT O N A – D AY T O N A B E A C H – O R M O N D B E A C H

Despite weather, 25th anniversary of Biketoberfest deemed successful • Though the weather was cloudy and rainy, and Hurricane Irma had impacted all of Florida in September, many who attended the annual Biketoberfest at Daytona Beach this year had a positive experience. • This marks Biketoberfest’s 25th year, and is also the second year in a row in which a hurricane has impacted the event, though Irma wasn’t as severe in terms of its effect on attendance as Hurricane Matthew was. • Though some vendors saw a decrease in sales, Janet Kersey, executive vice president and COO of the Daytona Regional Chamber of Commerce, said, “It certainly looked better than last year. I believe the crowds were strong, with the main venues doing well.” Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, October 22, 2017 Housing starts ‘roaring’ in Volusia, Flagler • Volusia and Flagler Counties have seen a large jump in the number of building permits issued in October compared to September, which was adversely impacted by Hurricane Irma. • Volusia issued a total of 263 building permits in October, which is the most issued permits Volusia has seen since August 2006. This is an additional 103 permits to September’s total, which was 160 issued permits. Flagler County had 81 permits issued in October, while September only had 49 issued permits. • One factor that accounts for such a large increase in permits in both counties is national builder D.R. Horton. D.R. Horton’s influence lies less in Volusia than it does Flagler, where they are currently working on the Grand Reserve in Bunnell.

Daytona airport still on track for best year since ‘96 • Though Daytona Beach International Airport was greatly affected by Hurricane Irma for the month of September, the airport is poised to have its best passenger traffic numbers for a calendar year since 1996. • For September, the airport saw a total of 67 flight cancellations due to Hurricane Irma and had a total of 47,272 passengers, down 12% compared to September of last year. However, for the fiscal year, the airport saw a 3.1% increase in passenger traffic compared to the 2016 fiscal year. • In the first nine months of this year, the airport saw a total of 549,287 passengers, up 0.7% from last year’s first nine months. Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, November 6, 2017 WyoTech to close Ormond campus, 20 other schools to follow • Zenith Education Group must close 21 of its 24 campuses, including vocational school WyoTech located in Ormond Beach, which will close in June. • WyoTech offers automotive, motorcycle, diesel, and marine technology courses and currently has 89 students and 42 employees. WyoTech is working on completing programs for its current students, and also plans to provide placement support. WyoTech will also keep its national accreditation status. • Zenith responded, stating, “No student was left behind then (when Zenith acquired WyoTech), and we will ensure each has the opportunity for success now.” Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, December 8, 2017

Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, November 4, 2017

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

31


D E LT O N A – D AY T O N A B E A C H – O R M O N D B E A C H

Deltona - Daytona Beach - Ormond Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

(percent)

19000.0

15000.0 14000.0

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 FL Unemployment Rate Deltona Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

200.0 190.0 180.0 170.0

32

(Millions 2000 $)

16000.0

210.0

160.0

1.4

17000.0

13000.0

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Deltona Payroll Employment

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2017

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Real Gross Metro Product

Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Personal Income

Deltona-Daytona Beach Payroll Employment 220.0

1.2

18000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

1.0

Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Gross Metro Product

Florida & Deltona-Daytona Beach Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

0.8

8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0%

(percent change year ago)

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Real Personal Income


D E LT O N A – D AY T O N A B E A C H – O R M O N D B E A C H

Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL December 2017 2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

21.4 1.7 6.7 14.7 20.1 0.3 35.5 33.3 37.6 0.6

22.5 5.4 7.1 15.4 20.8 3.7 36.8 34.0 38.6 2.7

23.8 5.7 7.6 16.3 22.0 5.4 38.1 35.1 39.9 3.3

24.9 4.7 8.1 16.8 22.7 3.6 39.0 35.6 40.9 2.6

25.8 3.4 8.4 17.4 23.1 1.8 39.6 35.6 41.4 1.3

27.0 4.8 8.8 18.2 23.9 3.2 40.9 36.2 42.8 3.4

29.0 7.2 9.4 19.6 25.1 5.2 43.2 37.5 44.7 4.3

30.9 6.7 9.9 21.0 26.3 4.5 45.4 38.5 46.6 4.2

32.7 5.7 10.5 22.2 27.2 3.4 47.3 39.3 48.6 4.4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 177.9 182.3 188.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 2.5 3.3 Manufacturing 9.8 10.5 10.9 5.8 6.3 4.2 Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing 168.0 171.9 177.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.3 2.3 3.2 Construction & Mining 9.3 10.1 11.2 9.8 8.7 10.2 Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities 33.7 34.5 35.9 -0.2 2.4 3.9 Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade 4.6 4.5 4.8 Retail Trade 27.0 27.7 28.7 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 2.2 2.3 2.4 Information 2.8 2.6 2.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.2 -5.1 -1.9 Financial Activities 8.5 8.4 8.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 -0.8 2.3 Prof & Business Services 19.4 20.2 21.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.6 4.0 4.3 Educ & Health Services 35.6 36.3 37.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.9 2.1 1.8 Leisure & Hospitality 26.6 27.9 29.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.5 4.9 5.1 Other Services 8.3 8.4 8.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.1 0.3 1.0 Federal Government 1.3 1.3 1.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.9 2.0 1.2 State & Local Government 22.5 22.1 22.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.0 -1.8 -0.1

197.0 4.6 11.5 5.5 185.5 4.6 12.1 8.2 37.2 3.8 5.1 29.7 2.4 2.5 -1.3 8.7 1.1 23.6 12.2 38.2 3.3 30.8 5.2 8.8 4.9 1.4 3.2 22.1 0.0

200.6 1.8 11.4 -1.2 189.2 2.0 13.2 9.5 38.6 3.5 5.2 30.9 2.5 2.5 -1.2 8.7 -0.2 24.2 2.4 39.4 3.1 29.8 -3.3 9.2 4.1 1.4 6.4 22.3 0.8

205.0 2.2 11.3 -0.3 193.6 2.3 14.1 6.3 38.6 0.2 5.3 30.4 2.5 2.4 -2.1 9.0 3.6 25.5 5.4 40.1 1.8 30.6 2.6 9.4 1.9 1.5 1.5 22.5 0.9

208.7 1.8 11.5 1.3 197.2 1.9 15.0 6.9 38.7 0.2 5.4 30.2 2.5 2.5 1.3 9.3 2.8 27.3 7.3 40.4 0.7 30.5 -0.1 9.4 0.6 1.4 -2.2 22.6 0.6

211.8 1.5 11.7 2.0 200.1 1.4 15.8 4.8 38.7 -0.1 5.5 30.1 2.5 2.5 2.4 9.4 2.0 28.1 2.7 41.1 1.7 30.7 0.5 9.5 0.2 1.6 8.9 22.8 0.7

214.7 1.4 11.8 0.5 202.9 1.4 16.3 3.6 38.8 0.3 5.6 30.3 2.6 2.6 2.7 9.6 2.0 28.9 2.9 41.8 1.8 30.9 0.9 9.5 0.2 1.4 -8.7 23.0 1.0

639.2 2.2 290.5 3.0 5.2 2717.8 2326.4 391.0

650.7 1.8 296.3 2.0 4.6 2364.5 2030.5 334.0

660.6 1.5 298.0 0.6 4.8 4534.8 3456.8 1078.0

670.9 1.6 302.8 1.6 4.8 5567.6 4110.0 1458.0

681.3 1.5 309.3 2.2 4.9 5917.2 4337.0 1580.0

691.4 1.5 315.6 2.0 4.8 6165.7 4535.0 1631.0

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

602.7 1.0 279.6 0.0 8.2 1917.4 1655.4 262.0

612.3 1.6 281.2 0.6 6.9 1933.5 1763.6 170.0

625.2 2.1 282.0 0.3 5.9 2086.5 1929.6 157.0

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

33


D E LT O N A – D AY T O N A B E A C H – O R M O N D B E A C H

Quarterly Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL December 2017 2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

2020Q1

2020Q2

2020Q3

2020Q4

2021Q1

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

26 3.2 8.5 17.6

26.4 3.4 8.6 17.8

26.8 4.4 8.8 18

27.2 5.2 8.9 18.3

27.7 6.4 9 18.7

28.2 6.8 9.2 19

28.7 7.2 9.3 19.4

29.2 7.5 9.4 19.8

29.7 7.3 9.6 20.1

30.2 7.2 9.7 20.5

30.7 6.9 9.8 20.9

31.2 6.6 10 21.2

31.6 6.4 10.1 21.5

32.1 6.1 10.3 21.8

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

23.3 1.7

23.5 2

23.7 2.9

24 3.5

24.3 4.6

24.7 4.9

25 5.2

25.3 5.4

25.6 5.2

25.9 4.9

26.1 4.7

26.4 4.3

26.6 4.1

26.9 3.8

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

39.8 35.5

40.2 35.8

40.6 36

41.1 36.3

41.7 36.6

42.3 37

42.9 37.3

43.5 37.6

44 37.9

44.6 38.2

45.2 38.4

45.7 38.6

46.1 38.8

46.7 39.1

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

41.7 1.8

42.2 2.7

42.6 3

43 3.5

43.5 4.3

44 4.2

44.4 4.3

44.9 4.4

45.4 4.3

45.9 4.4

46.3 4.2

46.8 4.2

47.3 4.2

47.9 4.3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

201.3 1.3

203.2 1.2

204.6 2.4

205.5 2.5

206.5 2.6

207.6 2.2

208.4 1.9

209 1.7

209.8 1.6

210.5 1.4

211.5 1.5

212.2 1.5

212.9 1.4

213.5 1.4

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

11.3 -2.3

11.3 -2.3

11.3 0.1

11.3 0.5

11.3 0.4

11.4 0.6

11.4 0.8

11.5 1.5

11.6 2.4

11.7 2.5

11.7 2.3

11.7 2

11.8 1.4

11.8 0.9

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

190.1 1.5

191.9 1.4

193.2 2.6

194.2 2.6

195.2 2.7

196.2 2.2

197 1.9

197.5 1.7

198.2 1.6

198.8 1.3

199.8 1.4

200.5 1.5

201.1 1.5

201.8 1.5

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

13.8 10.7

13.8 7.3

13.9 6.9

14.1 6.8

14.4 4.4

14.7 6.4

14.9 7.1

15.2 7.3

15.4 6.9

15.5 5.7

15.7 5.2

15.8 4.5

16 3.9

16.1 3.7

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

38.6 1.6

38.6 0.2

38.6 0.2

38.6 0.4

38.7 0.2

38.8 0.4

38.8 0.4

38.7 0.2

38.7 -0.1

38.7 -0.2

38.7 -0.3

38.7 0

38.8 0.2

38.8 0.2

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

5.2 30.9 2.5

5.2 30.7 2.5

5.2 30.4 2.5

5.3 30.2 2.5

5.3 30.2 2.5

5.3 30.3 2.5

5.4 30.2 2.5

5.4 30.1 2.5

5.4 30 2.5

5.4 30.1 2.5

5.5 30.1 2.5

5.5 30.1 2.5

5.5 30.2 2.6

5.5 30.2 2.6

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.5 0.4

2.4 -2.2

2.4 -2.7

2.5 -2.2

2.5 -1.2

2.5 1.7

2.5 2

2.5 0.7

2.5 0.9

2.5 1.8

2.5 2.4

2.5 2.7

2.6 2.6

2.6 2.7

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

8.6 -1.2

8.8 0.5

9 3.3

9.1 4.9

9.1 5.9

9.2 4

9.2 2.6

9.3 2.3

9.3 2.2

9.4 2.1

9.4 2

9.5 2

9.5 1.9

9.6 1.9

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

24.2 0.3

24.7 2.3

25.3 4.4

25.7 6.4

26.2 8.3

26.8 8.9

27.3 7.9

27.5 7

27.7 5.7

27.8 3.5

27.9 2.5

28.2 2.4

28.4 2.5

28.6 2.8

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

39.8 3.6

39.9 1.9

40 3

40.2 1.5

40.2 1

40.2 0.7

40.3 0.7

40.4 0.5

40.5 0.8

40.7 1.2

40.9 1.6

41.2 2

41.4 2

41.6 2

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

29.3 -3.7

30.3 -0.2

30.6 2.9

30.7 3.1

30.7 4.7

30.6 1.2

30.5 -0.2

30.5 -0.7

30.5 -0.6

30.6 -0.2

30.6 0.3

30.7 0.9

30.8 1

30.8 0.8

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

9.3 3.3

9.4 2.1

9.4 2.2

9.4 2.1

9.4 1.4

9.4 1

9.4 0.7

9.4 0.5

9.4 0.2

9.5 0.2

9.5 0.1

9.5 0.1

9.5 0.3

9.5 0.2

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.5 9

1.5 7.6

1.5 3.4

1.4 -1

1.4 -3.6

1.4 -7.5

1.4 -3.8

1.4 0

1.5 2.6

1.4 4.1

1.8 24.2

1.6 9.6

1.5 -1.8

1.4 -1.6

22.4 1.1

22.5 0.6

22.5 1.4

22.5 0.9

22.5 0.6

22.5 0.4

22.6 0.5

22.6 0.7

22.7 0.8

22.7 0.9

22.8 0.8

22.8 0.7

22.8 0.7

22.9 0.7

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

654.6 1.6

656.8 1.5

659.3 1.5

661.9 1.5

664.5 1.5

667.1 1.6

669.6 1.6

672.2 1.6

674.8 1.6

677.4 1.5

680 1.5

682.6 1.5

685.1 1.5

687.6 1.5

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

296.2 0.8

296.8 0

297.5 0.3

298.3 0.9

299.4 1.1

300.6 1.3

301.9 1.5

303.5 1.7

305.1 1.9

306.9 2.1

308.6 2.2

310.2 2.2

311.7 2.2

313.2 2.1

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

34

4.4

4.6

4.8

4.9

4.8

4.7

4.8

4.8

4.9

4.9

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.8

2887 2460 427

3819 3023 796

4402 3328 1074

4854 3670 1184

5065 3807 1258

5296 3942 1354

5575 4117 1458

5662 4164 1499

5737 4218 1520

5830 4258 1572

5882 4315 1567

5974 4381 1593

5983 4394 1589

6081 4461 1620

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2017


GAINESVILLE

PROFILES The Gainesville MSA is comprised of Alachua and Gilchrist Counties and is located in the centralnorth portion of the state. This Metro is home to the University of Florida and the Florida Museum of Natural History, Florida’s official natural history museum. QUICK FACTS: •

Metro population estimate of 270,382 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

Alachua County population estimate of 253,451 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

Gilchrist County population estimate of 16,931 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

Civilian labor force of 145,327 in October 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

An unemployment rate of 3.0% as of October 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 4,419 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database).

TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: •

University of Florida – 27,567

UF Health Shands System – 12,705

Veterans Affairs Medical Center – 6,127

Alachua County School Board – 3,904

City of Gainesville – 2,072

North Florida Regional Medical Center – 2,000

Gator Dining Services – 1,200

Nationwide Insurance Company – 960

Alachua County – 809

Publix Supermarkets – 780

Source: Gainsville Area Chamber of Commerce

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES The Gainesville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show low levels of growth in most of the economic indicators relative to the other MSAs studied. Personal income growth will see an average of 5.9 percent growth, the second lowest of the studied MSAs. Real per capita income level is expected to average $40,700. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 4.0 percent, while the average annual wage level will be at $51,600. Population growth will be the second lowest of the studied areas at 0.7 percent annually. Gross Metro Product will be the second lowest of the studied MSAs at an average level of 11,909.25 million dollars. Gainesville will see an average employment growth rate of 1.1 percent annually, the lowest growth of the MSAs. The Gainesville MSA will, however, maintain the lowest average unemployment rate of the MSAs studied, at 3.7 percent. The fastest growing sectors in the area will be the Construction and Mining sector and the Professional and Business Services sector, both with average growth rates of 4.3 percent annually. This is followed by the Financial sector with an average annual growth rate of 2.1 percent. The Federal Government sector and the Trade, Transportation, and Utilities sector will experience declines, with annual growth rates of -1.5 percent and -0.3 percent, respectively.

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Chamber supports schools’ sales tax • Starting in November 2018, an Alachua County Public Schools initiative will start receiving a 12-year, half-cent sales tax. The Gainesville Area Chamber of Commerce supported the tax, and the money will be used to repair the 41-year-old facilities. • The $20 million year revenue from the school capital surtax will only be spent on schools’ capital projects. • There are 40 traditional public schools that require critical repairs for roofing, HVAC systems, flooring, and painting. There has been an influx of about 1,700 students in the last three years, so

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

35


GAINESVILLE

after the critical repairs, some money may be used to renovate and build new classrooms to keep up with the growing student population. Source: Gainesville Sun, October 3, 2017 FP&L plans ‘solar sanctuary’ 25 miles east of Gainesville • The Gainesville area will be getting the first “solar sanctuary;” the sanctuary is a planned partnership between Audubon Florida and Florida Power & Light. • This is one of eight similar sites currently under construction, and it will have about 330,000 panels, generating enough energy to power about 15,000 homes. • The solar power plant will provide a home for native species, vegetation, and wildlife while providing sustainable energy. The sanctuary will also protect birds and pollinators, enhance the natural hydrology system, and include wetlands retentions. Source: Gainesville Sun, November 28, 2017 UF Health’s two new hospitals may bring more businesses to southwest Gainesville • People from all over the country will be visiting Gainesville’s two brand new hospitals for services. UF Health Heart & Vascular and UF Health Neuromedicine recently opened and should bring an influx of business and redevelopment in southwest Gainesville. • The hospitals and recent housing developments in southwest Gainesville should continue to draw in more service industry companies to the area. A larger population from patients, employees, and their families will make this area more appealing to these service-based companies. • Southwest Gainesville and surrounding areas seem to be a focal point in the local economy and there’s a big growth in economic activity and new jobs with lots of potential in the future. Source: Gainesville Sun, December 10, 2017

Restaurant roundup: Mancini’s, White Buffalo to open • Mancini’s will soon be opening at 3501 SW 2nd Ave. in Gainesville, offering Italian Homestyle food with a Tuscan-inspired menu and steakhouse options. • Mancini’s will have a unique atmosphere with the first floor featuring a small patio and dining area, the second floor holding a family dining area, and the top floor boasting an appetizer and bar area, creating a one-of-a-kind nighttime destination. • White Buffalo will call 111 S. Main St. in Gainesville home soon, and will offer a small menu including buffalo sausage and local liquor and beer options. • Tatu Sushi Bar & Lounge recently reopened after a modern remodel and is under new ownership. The restaurant now has a full bar for customers to drink and nine new televisions to make this spot a new game-day tradition. Source: Gainesville Sun, October 18, 2017 Incentive zone to recruit, retain businesses considered for east Gainesville • Double Envelope Corp., an envelope manufacturer, and SiVance, a chemical manufacturer, have been considering leaving or expanding outside of Gainesville because of the high cost for electricity, while city commissioners are considering offering incentives to bring more jobs to the east side of Gainesville. • City commissioners have considered reestablishing an “enterprise zone” that would cut development fees by 50 percent in eastern districts of Gainesville, hoping to spark economic development. • The problem is that Gainesville’s Regional Utility rate for commercial electricity is about 30 percent higher than the state average and is one of the highest in the state. The city is hoping to offer a special commercial rate structure to businesses within the enterprise to help curb this large expense. Source: Gainesville Sun, November 14, 2017

36

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2017


GAINESVILLE

Gainesville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

Florida & Gainesville Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

1

1.5

Gainesville Real Gross Metro Product 13000.0

6.0%

10000.0

4.0%

9000.0

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 FL Unemployment Rate Gainesville Unemployment Rate

8000.0

(Thousands)

145.0 140.0 135.0 130.0 125.0 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Gainesville Payroll Employment

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Real Gross Metro Product

Gainesville Real Personal Income

Gainesville Payroll Employment

120.0

(Millions 2000 $)

11000.0

8.0%

150.0

2.5

12000.0

10.0%

2.0%

2

12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

(percent change year ago)

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Real Personal Income

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

37


GAINESVILLE

Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL December 2017 2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

9.8 1.1 5.6 4.3 9.2 -0.2 36.4 34.2 43.1 2.2

10.4 6.1 5.8 4.6 9.7 4.5 38.2 35.4 44.3 2.9

11.0 5.2 6.1 4.9 10.1 4.9 39.7 36.6 45.2 2.0

11.5 4.6 6.5 5.0 10.5 3.5 40.9 37.3 46.2 2.3

11.9 3.9 6.8 5.2 10.7 2.3 42.0 37.7 46.9 1.3

12.5 4.9 7.1 5.4 11.1 3.3 43.6 38.6 48.5 3.5

13.4 6.7 7.5 5.9 11.6 4.6 46.2 40.1 50.5 4.1

14.2 6.3 7.9 6.4 12.1 4.1 48.8 41.4 52.5 4.1

15.0 5.6 8.3 6.7 12.5 3.3 51.3 42.6 54.9 4.4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 128.9 131.1 134.9 0.7 1.7 2.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.4 4.3 4.5 Manufacturing 0.2 -3.5 5.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 124.5 126.9 130.4 Nonmanufacturing 0.7 1.9 2.8 Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining 4.4 4.4 4.7 2.6 0.6 7.9 Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities 18.3 18.8 19.4 0.9 2.6 3.3 Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade 2.7 2.8 2.8 Retail Trade 13.2 13.4 13.8 2.5 2.6 2.8 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.2 0.5 4.5 Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities 6.2 6.3 6.4 -2.0 0.8 2.0 Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services 11.4 12.3 12.9 1.3 8.2 4.8 Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services 23.1 23.7 24.2 1.1 2.7 1.8 Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality 13.8 13.8 14.6 2.9 0.3 5.3 Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services 4.1 4.2 4.5 0.4 3.7 5.9 Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government 4.4 4.5 4.6 0.8 1.6 2.4 Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government 37.4 37.4 37.6 -0.3 0.0 0.7 Pct Chg Year Ago

139.3 3.2 4.7 5.6 134.6 3.2 5.1 7.4 20.3 4.5 2.8 14.3 3.2 1.5 -1.6 6.5 1.4 13.8 6.8 24.8 2.4 15.2 4.1 4.6 1.9 4.7 2.0 38.2 1.6

143.6 3.1 4.8 1.3 138.9 3.2 5.5 7.1 21.4 5.3 3.0 15.0 3.4 1.5 0.8 6.7 3.2 14.6 5.5 25.6 3.3 15.5 1.9 4.8 4.4 4.7 0.9 38.7 1.4

146.1 1.7 4.8 0.3 141.3 1.8 5.7 4.7 21.4 0.1 3.0 14.7 3.4 1.5 -2.7 6.9 3.7 15.3 5.4 25.8 1.0 16.1 4.0 4.9 3.5 4.7 -1.3 38.9 0.5

147.7 1.1 4.9 1.4 142.8 1.1 6.0 5.8 21.3 -0.3 3.1 14.5 3.5 1.5 0.7 7.1 2.1 16.4 6.9 25.9 0.1 16.0 -0.7 5.0 0.6 4.5 -2.5 39.1 0.5

148.9 0.9 5.0 2.2 144.0 0.8 6.3 3.9 21.2 -0.6 3.1 14.4 3.4 1.5 1.4 7.2 1.3 16.8 2.3 26.1 1.0 16.0 0.1 5.0 0.2 4.6 1.6 39.3 0.5

150.1 0.8 5.0 0.6 145.1 0.8 6.5 3.0 21.1 -0.3 3.1 14.4 3.4 1.5 1.8 7.3 1.3 17.2 2.6 26.4 1.0 16.1 0.7 5.0 0.0 4.4 -3.7 39.6 0.6

281.1 1.4 139.0 2.3 4.3 1071.7 641.0 431.0

284.5 1.2 143.5 3.3 3.8 942.7 550.7 392.0

287.1 0.9 145.8 1.6 3.8 1304.6 742.9 562.0

289.3 0.7 148.7 2.0 3.6 1391.6 798.4 593.0

291.2 0.7 151.5 1.9 3.6 1464.0 830.4 634.0

292.9 0.6 153.2 1.1 3.6 1545.7 866.1 680.0

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

38

270.1 0.6 136.1 -0.5 5.8 758.3 548.4 210.0

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2017

273.3 1.2 136.1 0.1 5.3 744.6 525.7 219.0

277.1 1.4 135.9 -0.2 4.6 1075.7 644.5 431.0


GAINESVILLE

Quarterly Outlook for Gainesville, FL December 2016 2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

2020Q1

2020Q2

2020Q3

2020Q4

2021Q1

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

12.1 3.7 6.8 5.2

12.3 3.7 7 5.3

12.4 4.3 7.1 5.4

12.6 5.1 7.2 5.5

12.8 6.4 7.3 5.6

13.1 6.5 7.3 5.7

13.3 6.7 7.4 5.8

13.5 6.9 7.5 6

13.7 6.7 7.6 6.1

13.9 6.5 7.7 6.2

14.1 6.6 7.8 6.3

14.3 6.2 7.9 6.4

14.5 6.1 8 6.5

14.7 6 8.1 6.6

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

10.8 2.3

10.9 2.3

11 2.8

11.1 3.4

11.3 4.6

11.4 4.5

11.5 4.7

11.7 4.8

11.8 4.6

11.9 4.3

12 4.3

12.1 4

12.2 3.8

12.3 3.6

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

42.2 37.7

42.8 38.1

43.3 38.4

43.9 38.7

44.5 39.1

45.2 39.5

45.9 39.9

46.6 40.3

47.2 40.6

47.9 41

48.5 41.3

49.1 41.6

49.7 41.9

50.4 42.2

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

47.3 2.2

47.7 2.9

48.2 3.1

48.7 3.6

49.2 4.2

49.7 4.1

50.2 4.1

50.7 4.1

51.2 4.1

51.7 4.1

52.2 4

52.8 4.1

53.4 4.2

54 4.3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

144 2.2

145.3 1.5

146 1.6

146.4 1.7

146.8 2

147.3 1.4

147.6 1.1

147.8 1

148.1 0.9

148.2 0.6

149.1 1

149.2 1

149.3 0.8

149.6 0.9

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

4.8 -0.2

4.8 -0.3

4.8 0.4

4.8 0.6

4.8 0.5

4.8 0.7

4.8 0.9

4.9 1.6

4.9 2.4

4.9 2.6

5 2.4

5 2.1

5 1.5

5 1.1

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

139.2 2.3

140.5 1.6

141.2 1.7

141.6 1.8

142 2

142.5 1.4

142.7 1.1

142.9 0.9

143.2 0.8

143.3 0.6

144.1 1

144.2 0.9

144.3 0.8

144.6 0.9

5.6 6.3

5.6 4.9

5.7 4.7

5.7 5.5

5.8 3.7

5.9 5.4

6 5.9

6.1 6.1

6.1 5.7

6.2 4.6

6.3 4.1

6.3 3.7

6.3 3.2

6.4 3.1

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

21.5 4.4

21.4 0.8

21.4 -0.1

21.4 -0.1

21.4 -0.3

21.4 -0.2

21.4 -0.2

21.3 -0.3

21.3 -0.6

21.2 -0.7

21.2 -0.8

21.2 -0.6

21.2 -0.4

21.2 -0.4

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3 15 3.4

3 14.9 3.4

3 14.7 3.4

3 14.6 3.4

3.1 14.6 3.5

3.1 14.6 3.5

3.1 14.6 3.5

3.1 14.5 3.5

3.1 14.4 3.5

3.1 14.4 3.4

3.1 14.4 3.4

3.1 14.4 3.4

3.1 14.4 3.4

3.1 14.4 3.4

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.5 1

1.5 -4.2

1.5 -3

1.5 -2.1

1.5 -1.4

1.5 1.1

1.5 1.3

1.5 0.1

1.5 0.2

1.5 0.9

1.5 1.4

1.5 1.7

1.5 1.6

1.5 1.8

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

6.7 1.2

6.8 2.6

6.9 3.7

7 3.9

7 4.5

7 3.1

7.1 2

7.1 1.7

7.1 1.5

7.1 1.4

7.2 1.2

7.2 1.3

7.2 1.2

7.2 1.1

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

14.6 3.5

14.9 3.4

15.2 4.1

15.5 6.1

15.8 7.8

16.1 8.3

16.4 7.4

16.5 6.5

16.6 5.3

16.6 3.1

16.7 2.1

16.8 2

16.9 2.1

17 2.5

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

25.8 3.4

25.8 1.6

25.8 1.3

25.9 0.8

25.9 0.4

25.8 0.2

25.9 0.1

25.9 0

25.9 0.2

26 0.6

26.1 0.9

26.2 1.2

26.3 1.3

26.3 1.3

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

15.1 -1.7

15.9 2.2

16.1 3.1

16.2 3.8

16.1 7

16.1 1.1

16 -0.9

15.9 -1.6

15.9 -1.4

15.9 -0.8

16 -0.1

16 0.6

16 0.9

16 0.7

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

4.9 4

4.9 5.5

4.9 4.2

4.9 2.9

4.9 1.7

5 1

5 0.7

5 0.5

5 0.3

5 0.3

5 0.2

5 0.2

5 0.3

5 0.1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

4.8 0.8

4.8 1.1

4.7 -0.2

4.6 -2.3

4.6 -3.7

4.6 -3.5

4.6 -2.8

4.5 -2

4.5 -1.9

4.4 -5

5 9.2

4.7 3.6

4.4 -1.3

4.4 2

38.8 1.2

38.9 0.3

38.9 0.8

38.9 0.6

39 0.5

39 0.3

39.1 0.5

39.2 0.6

39.3 0.7

39.3 0.7

39.3 0.6

39.3 0.4

39.4 0.4

39.5 0.4

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

285.7 1.1

286.3 1

286.9 0.9

287.4 0.9

288 0.8

288.5 0.8

289 0.8

289.5 0.7

290 0.7

290.5 0.7

291 0.7

291.4 0.7

291.8 0.6

292.3 0.6

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

144.1 2.6

144.8 1.3

145.5 1.5

146.1 1.9

146.9 1.9

147.6 1.9

148.3 2

149.1 2

149.9 2

150.6 2.1

151.3 2

151.9 1.9

152.3 1.6

152.7 1.4

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%)

3.6

3.7

3.8

3.9

3.8

3.7

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.6

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

890 589 301

1179 688 491

1325 728 596

1366 776 591

1349 779 569

1352 782 570

1384 796 588

1408 803 604

1423 812 611

1439 816 623

1452 826 625

1481 839 642

1484 840 644

1517 852 664

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

39


JACKSONVILLE

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Jacksonville MSA is comprised of Baker, Clay, Duval, Nassau and St. Johns counties. It is located on the northeast coast of Florida and is home to several major U.S. military bases, such as the Jacksonville Naval Air Station, as well as shipyards, the University of North Florida, and the Jacksonville International Airport.

The Jacksonville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to see moderate growth in most of the economic indicators, relative to the other MSAs studied. Personal income will see an average growth rate of 6.8 percent. The real per capita income level is expected to average $45,100, the third highest of the twelve studied MSAs. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.8 percent, while the average annual wage level is expected to be $58,200, the second highest of the twelve studied MSAs. Population growth will be moderate at an average annual rate of 1.5 percent. Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 73,872.57 million dollars. Employment growth is expected to average 2.4 percent annually. Unemployment will average 4.0 percent in the MSA. The fastest growing sector in the Jacksonville MSA will be Professional and Business Services, which will see an average annual growth rate of 6.0 percent. Following that sector is the Construction and Mining sector, with an average annual growth rate of 5.5 percent, and then the Financial sector, with an average annual growth rate of 3.0 percent. The Federal Government sector is expected to decline, with average annual growth rate of -1.2 percent.

QUICK FACTS:

Metro population estimate of 1,394,624 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

Baker County population estimate of 27,013 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

Clay County population estimate of 196,399 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

Duval County population estimate of 885,855 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

Nassau County population estimate of 75,710 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

St. Johns County population estimate of 209,647 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

Civilian labor force of 753,277 in October 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

An unemployment rate of 3.3% as of October 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 24,846 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database).

TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

Naval Air Station Jacksonville – 19,618

Duval County Public Schools – 14,480

Naval Station Mayport – 13,444

Baptist Health Systems – 10,500

Bank of America Merrill Lynch – 8,000

Florida Blue – 6,700

Mayo Clinic – 6,000

Southeastern Grocers – 5,700

Citi – 4,000

JP Morgan Chase – 3,900

Source: JAXUSA Partnership

40

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2017

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Rayonier Inc. opens new headquarters building in Nassau County • Rayonier Inc., a timber and real estate investment company, opened a new 55,000-square-foot headquarters building in Nassau County. • The building will house 175 employee work stations, a 1,100-square-foot fitness center for the employees, and 20 conference rooms. The building is constructed of mostly wood to reflect the company’s connection to the lumber industry. • Beyond Rayonier’s employees at headquarters, they employ 4,000 workers in Nassau County and own about 125,000 acres of property in the county. Source: Florida Times Union, November 15, 2017


JACKSONVILLE

Baymeadows apartments sell for record $111 million • The Villages of Baymeadows, a 1,048-unit complex spread across 135 buildings, was bought for $111 million by GoldOller Real Estate Investments, which might be a record price. The first buildings in the complex were built in 1969 and are located just east of Interstate 95. • Brian Moulder, who brokered the sale, said this was “the largest single-asset apartment sale in Jacksonville’s history.” Baymeadows is currently 94 percent occupied. Source: Florida Times Union, November 8, 2017 Renovation to begin on Barnett Bank Building this week • Old Barnett Bank in downtown Jacksonville has started the renovation process. The top 11 floors of the 18-story building will be filled with 100 apartments, and people should be able to move in approximately 10 to 12 months from now. • The Barnett building is located at Adams and Laura Streets, and the three buildings across the street, known as the Laura Street Trio, are all included in the project. The full project is contracted by Danis Construction and is estimated to cost $90 million. The city is funding $9.8 million of the project.

• The company wants to facilitate executives’ management in different areas, like defense contracting and other government business development or vessel ownership, operations and management to expand their portfolio of work. • 900 of Crowley’s workers are based in Jacksonville, with 5,500 employees worldwide. Source: Florida Times Union, December 7, 2017 GreenPal seeks to be Uber for lawn care in Jacksonville • GreenPal, a new internet and mobile application that connects customers who need yard work done to lawn care service providers, is being used by one of Jacksonville’s lawn care business owners. • The app has a messaging system, so lawn service providers can communicate with homeowners or businesses and provides an aerial view of a property. • So far in Jacksonville, there are 20 vendors who are a part of the GreenPal network. When a lawn service is needed, the lawn care businesses bid on the job and the customer decides which company they will pick. Source: Florida Times Union, December 6, 2017

• A parking garage will be built for the public and the Barnett residents, and it should be finished at the same time as the building. Source: Florida Times Union, October 16, 2017 Jacksonville’s Crowley Maritime assigns executives to focus on growing government and LNG business • Jacksonville-based Crowley Maritime Corp. restructured their executive’s focuses to help expand defense contracting and Liquefied Natural Gas production and delivery, both areas with potential to grow for the business.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

41


JACKSONVILLE

Jacksonville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Jacksonville Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

0.6

0.8

80000.0

70000.0 65000.0

6.0%

1.8

(Millions 2000 $)

55000.0

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 FL Unemployment Rate Jacksonville Unemployment Rate

50000.0

(Thousands)

700.0 650.0 600.0 550.0 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Jacksonville Payroll Employment

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2017

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Real Gross Metro Product

Jacksonville Real Personal Income

Jacksonville Payroll Employment

42

1.6

60000.0

4.0%

500.0

1.4

75000.0

8.0%

750.0

1.2

Jacksonville Real Gross Metro Product

10.0%

2.0%

1

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

(percent change year ago)

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Real Personal Income


JACKSONVILLE

Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL December 2017 2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

57.9 1.0 30.5 27.4 54.4 -0.3 41.4 38.9 48.9 0.3

60.8 5.0 32.1 28.7 56.2 3.3 42.7 39.5 50.2 2.8

64.1 5.5 33.8 30.3 59.1 5.1 44.1 40.7 51.1 1.7

67.3 5.0 35.7 31.6 61.4 3.9 45.4 41.4 52.4 2.5

70.1 4.2 37.3 32.8 63.0 2.5 46.4 41.7 53.1 1.5

74.3 5.9 39.7 34.6 65.7 4.3 48.3 42.7 54.8 3.2

80.1 7.8 42.4 37.7 69.4 5.7 51.3 44.5 57.0 4.0

85.8 7.1 44.9 40.9 72.8 4.8 54.2 46.0 59.3 4.0

91.2 6.3 47.6 43.5 75.7 4.0 56.8 47.2 61.8 4.2

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 607.9 624.1 646.1 2.3 2.7 3.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 27.8 28.0 29.0 Manufacturing -0.3 0.8 3.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 580.1 596.1 617.1 Nonmanufacturing 2.4 2.8 3.5 Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining 30.2 32.7 35.6 8.5 8.2 9.1 Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities 127.8 130.7 135.2 1.9 2.3 3.4 Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade 24.7 24.0 25.1 Retail Trade 71.6 73.6 75.8 31.5 33.0 34.2 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information 9.2 9.2 9.3 -0.6 0.7 0.8 Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities 61.5 60.9 61.5 2.4 -1.0 1.0 Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services 94.0 98.2 100.7 3.3 4.5 2.5 Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services 91.3 93.4 97.6 2.3 2.4 4.4 Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality 71.8 75.5 79.9 4.1 5.1 5.8 Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services 20.6 21.7 23.1 1.5 5.3 6.2 Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government 17.0 16.8 17.1 -1.5 -1.0 1.6 Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government 56.8 56.9 57.3 -0.9 0.2 0.6 Pct Chg Year Ago

667.9 3.4 29.4 1.4 638.5 3.5 39.0 9.6 137.9 2.0 26.1 77.5 34.4 9.4 1.7 64.0 4.2 101.5 0.8 102.8 5.3 83.0 3.9 25.4 10.0 17.6 2.7 57.8 0.9

687.5 2.9 30.1 2.2 657.5 3.0 39.8 1.9 143.1 3.7 26.8 81.8 34.4 9.5 0.7 65.3 2.0 105.5 3.9 107.4 4.5 84.3 1.6 26.8 5.7 17.9 1.7 57.9 0.1

709.7 3.2 30.3 0.9 679.4 3.3 42.2 6.1 145.3 1.6 27.5 81.8 35.0 9.3 -2.2 68.6 5.0 112.8 6.9 109.6 2.1 87.7 4.0 27.7 3.1 17.6 -1.4 58.5 1.1

728.8 2.7 30.8 1.4 698.0 2.7 45.2 6.9 146.5 0.8 28.2 81.8 35.4 9.4 1.4 70.5 2.8 123.7 9.7 110.5 0.8 87.9 0.2 28.0 1.4 17.3 -2.1 59.1 0.9

742.6 1.9 31.4 2.0 711.2 1.9 47.4 5.0 147.1 0.4 28.7 82.0 35.6 9.6 2.1 71.9 2.1 128.3 3.7 112.6 1.9 88.8 1.0 28.3 0.9 17.5 1.4 59.8 1.2

756.5 1.9 31.5 0.5 725.0 1.9 49.3 4.0 148.1 0.7 29.2 82.8 35.9 9.9 2.5 73.5 2.2 133.0 3.7 114.8 2.0 90.1 1.5 28.5 0.8 17.0 -2.7 60.7 1.5

1481.9 2.1 734.2 2.1 4.7 11272.9 8798.0 2475.0

1510.6 1.9 756.5 3.0 4.1 12518.7 9621.5 2897.0

1536.9 1.7 764.8 1.1 4.1 14310.6 10011.7 4299.0

1560.6 1.5 776.6 1.5 4.0 13639.6 9762.0 3878.0

1582.9 1.4 790.8 1.8 4.0 14060.0 10040.9 4019.0

1605.2 1.4 804.2 1.7 4.0 14691.2 10352.9 4338.0

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

1398.9 1.3 709.0 0.7 7.0 7258.8 6164.8 1094.0

1423.5 1.8 716.3 1.0 6.2 7519.2 6246.9 1272.0

1451.9 2.0 719.2 0.4 5.3 9623.5 7339.9 2284.0

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

43


JACKSONVILLE

Quarterly Outlook for Jacksonville, FL December 2017 2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

2020Q1

2020Q2

2020Q3

2020Q4

2021Q1

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

71 4.2 37.8 33.2

72.3 4.7 38.6 33.7

73.6 5.2 39.4 34.2

74.8 6.2 40 34.8

76.3 7.5 40.7 35.6

77.9 7.7 41.5 36.5

79.3 7.8 42.1 37.2

80.8 8 42.7 38.1

82.2 7.7 43.3 38.9

83.7 7.4 43.9 39.8

85.1 7.2 44.6 40.5

86.5 7 45.2 41.2

87.8 6.8 45.9 41.9

89.2 6.6 46.6 42.6

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

63.4 2.7

64.4 3.3

65.2 3.7

66 4.5

67 5.7

68.1 5.7

69 5.8

69.9 5.9

70.8 5.6

71.6 5.2

72.4 5

73.2 4.7

73.9 4.5

74.7 4.3

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

46.7 41.7

47.4 42.2

48 42.5

48.6 42.9

49.4 43.4

50.2 43.9

50.9 44.3

51.7 44.7

52.4 45.1

53.1 45.5

53.8 45.8

54.5 46.2

55.2 46.4

55.9 46.8

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

53.5 1.9

54 2.6

54.6 2.8

55.1 3.3

55.7 4

56.2 4

56.8 4

57.3 4.1

57.9 4

58.5 4

59 3.9

59.6 3.9

60.2 4

60.9 4.1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

692 2.7

701 2.9

707.7 3

712.4 3.3

717.7 3.7

723.2 3.2

727.3 2.8

730.5 2.5

734 2.3

736.6 1.9

741.2 1.9

744.8 2

747.8 1.9

751 2

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

30.2 1.1

30.2 1.3

30.3 0.9

30.4 0.7

30.4 0.6

30.5 0.9

30.6 1

30.8 1.5

31 2.2

31.2 2.4

31.3 2.2

31.4 1.9

31.5 1.4

31.5 0.8

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

661.8 2.7

670.8 3

677.4 3

682 3.4

687.3 3.9

692.7 3.3

696.6 2.8

699.7 2.6

703 2.3

705.4 1.8

709.9 1.9

713.4 2

716.3 1.9

719.5 2

41.3 5.4

41.6 5.6

41.9 8

42.4 6.6

43.1 4.4

44.1 6.1

44.8 7.1

45.5 7.5

46.2 7.1

46.8 6.1

47.2 5.4

47.7 4.7

48.1 4.1

48.6 3.9

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

144.6 5

144.9 3.1

145.2 1.4

145.4 1.1

145.9 0.8

146.2 0.9

146.5 0.9

146.5 0.7

146.6 0.5

146.8 0.4

146.9 0.3

147.1 0.4

147.4 0.6

147.6 0.5

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

27.3 82.7 34.7

27.3 82.3 34.9

27.4 81.8 35

27.6 81.5 35.1

27.8 81.6 35.2

28 81.9 35.3

28.1 81.9 35.4

28.2 81.7 35.5

28.3 81.6 35.5

28.5 81.8 35.5

28.7 81.9 35.6

28.8 82.1 35.7

28.9 82.3 35.8

29.1 82.4 35.8

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

9.5 -0.1

9.2 -3

9.2 -3.3

9.3 -1.7

9.4 -0.8

9.4 1.7

9.4 2

9.4 0.8

9.5 0.9

9.5 1.6

9.6 2

9.6 2.3

9.7 2.3

9.8 2.3

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

65.6 0.8

67.3 3.8

68.5 5

69 5.2

69.5 6

69.9 3.9

70.3 2.6

70.6 2.4

71.1 2.2

71.4 2.2

71.7 2

72.1 2.1

72.5 2

72.9 2.1

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

105.8 3.7

108.2 3.6

111.5 5.3

114.1 7.8

117.2 10.8

120.8 11.7

123.2 10.5

124.8 9.3

125.9 7.5

126.5 4.7

127.5 3.5

128.9 3.3

130.1 3.3

131.2 3.7

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

108.8 4.4

109.2 3.4

109.5 2.2

109.8 1.8

110.1 1.1

110.1 0.8

110.3 0.8

110.6 0.7

111.1 0.9

111.6 1.4

112.3 1.7

112.9 2.1

113.5 2.2

114.1 2.2

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

82.9 -2.1

86.6 2.3

87.8 3.4

88.2 4.1

88.2 6.4

88.1 1.7

87.9 0

87.7 -0.5

87.9 -0.4

88.2 0.1

88.6 0.8

89 1.5

89.4 1.7

89.5 1.5

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

27.2 4

27.5 3.6

27.6 2.9

27.7 3.4

27.8 2.4

27.9 1.8

28 1.5

28.1 1.3

28.1 1

28.2 1

28.3 0.9

28.3 0.8

28.4 0.9

28.4 0.8

18 1

17.9 0.8

17.7 -1.2

17.5 -2

17.4 -3.1

17.3 -3.3

17.3 -2.4

17.2 -1.4

17.2 -1.1

16.7 -3.4

18.3 5.9

17.9 3.9

17.1 -0.6

17 1.6

58.1 0.5

58.4 0.7

58.5 1.3

58.6 1.3

58.7 1

58.8 0.7

59 0.8

59.2 1.1

59.4 1.2

59.5 1.3

59.7 1.2

59.8 1.1

60 1.1

60.3 1.3

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1521.2 1.9

1527.5 1.8

1533.9 1.8

1540.2 1.7

1546.2 1.6

1552.1 1.6

1557.9 1.6

1563.5 1.5

1569 1.5

1574.6 1.4

1580.1 1.4

1585.7 1.4

1591.3 1.4

1596.8 1.4

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

759 2.5

761.3 1

763.4 1

765.8 1.2

768.8 1.3

771.7 1.4

774.7 1.5

778.2 1.6

781.7 1.7

785.3 1.8

789.2 1.9

792.7 1.9

796 1.8

799.3 1.8

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

44

3.9

4

4.1

4.2

4.1

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

12485 9604 2880

14105 10026 4079

14660 10024 4636

14478 10090 4388

14000 9908 4092

13684 9765 3919

13616 9715 3901

13602 9749 3853

13657 9819 3837

13851 9905 3946

13961 10000 3961

14179 10118 4061

14249 10140 4109

14481 10229 4252

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2017


L A K E L A N D – W I N T E R H AV E N

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Lakeland–Winter Haven MSA is comprised only of Polk County. It is located in the westerncenter of the state and is heavily agriculturally based, especially in citrus. Lakeland is the home to Legoland Florida and is also the location of Publix Supermarket headquarters. Each year the Detroit Tigers host spring training at Joker Marchant Stadium. Lakeland is also home to Florida Polytechnic University, the newest member of the State University System.

The Lakeland–Winter Haven Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show low levels of growth in most of the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow moderately at 6.3 percent annually, while the real per capita income level will average $33,600, the lowest of the twelve MSAs. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.8 percent, and the average annual wage level is expected to be at $49,300. Population growth is expected to average 1.3 percent annually. Gross Metro Product will be at an average level of 20,105.29 million dollars. Employment growth is expected to average 1.7 percent annually. The unemployment rate for the metro will average 4.8 percent, the third highest of the twelve forecasted MSAs. The Professional and Business Services sector is expected to be the fastest growing sector in the area, averaging 5.4 percent annual growth. This is followed by the Construction and Mining sector averaging 4.1 percent annual growth, and the Financial and Manufacturing sectors, averaging 2.3 and 1.2 percent annual growth, respectively. The Federal Government sector will experience a decline, with an average annual growth rate of -0.8 percent.

QUICK FACTS: •

Population estimate of 623,009 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

Civilian labor force of 291,689 in October 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

An unemployment rate of 4.0% as of October 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 11,585 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database).

TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: •

Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 8,200

Lakeland Regional Medical Center – 5,500

GEICO – 2,800

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES

City of Lakeland – 2,600

Watson Clinic – 1,600

Legoland owner approaches SeaWorld about possible deal

Sykes – 1,150

GC Services – 1,000

Amazon – 900

Saddle Creek Logistics – 900

Source: Lakeland Economic Development Council

• Among those interested in making a deal with SeaWorld Entertainment Company is Merlin Entertainment, owner of Legoland. • Merlin Entertainment has been working to attract day-trippers back to London, which has seen a decline is tourism since the terrorist attacks. Rather than an outright sale (which is what SeaWorld is seeking), Merlin wants to buy part of the company. Considering their policy on not keeping cetaceans in captivity, Busch Gardens may be more of Merlin’s interest. • SeaWorld has been on a downward decline since the documentary ‘Blackfish’ was released in 2013. Shares for the company have fallen by 25% this year. Source: The Ledger, October 6, 2017 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

45


L A K E L A N D – W I N T E R H AV E N

Lakeland OKs plan to build 306 downtown apartments and townhomes in new multifamily neighborhood • Framework Group has been approved to build a new multifamily neighborhood, which is set to cost about $58 million. The neighborhood will include 306 apartments and townhomes. • The Lakeland government will be selling the land for $3.7 million; however, the city will give $1.8 million in incentives through “building or inspection fees, relocating utilities, and screening a nearby electric substation.” The neighborhood must be complete in three years if Framework would like to receive property-tax refunds. • This project is receiving mixed responses from the community. Steve Scruggs, president of the Lakeland Economic Development Council, said “the 100-percent residential site plan wasn’t right for downtown’s long-term economic strength.” Source: The Ledger, October 18, 2017 Now it’s an international airport: US Customs clears 1st Lakeland Linder border crossing • Lakeland Linder, which has been a regional airport, has now opened a U.S. Customs and Border Protection office and can now accept international flights containing less than 20 passengers. • Overall, this addition to the airport cost around $1 million, with Florida Department of Transportation paying $500,000, Sheltair paying $400,000, and the Polk County Tourism Development Council paying $150,000. Currently, the office is staffed by on-call customs officers. • Airport Director Gene Conrad sees this as a step towards greater economic growth, with the airport hoping to bring in international freight in the future. Source: The Ledger, November 17, 2017

46

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2017

First Watch opens restaurant in South Lakeland • First Watch has opened their second Lakeland location in November of this year. • Currently, the breakfast and lunch restaurant has 25 employees. The location is 3,400 square feet and can be found at 4620 South Florida Avenue. The other Lakeland location is located by the Lakeland Square Mall. • First Watch President Chris Tomasso said, “It’s clear that there was a gap for a truly fresh, family friendly breakfast, brunch and lunch café in the city, and we’re honored to have the opportunity to fill that void.” Source: The Ledger, November 22, 2017 The Lakeland Country Club is moving in • The Lakeland Yacht Club, which has been in business since 1924, will soon become the Lakeland Country Club. • A cloud of uncertainty over whether a redevelopment project would come to fruition recently decreased club membership, which now stands at 150. In an effort to recoup members, a new 15,000-square-foot building will add new amenities, as well as reintroduce old ones. • Ron Clark, co-chairman of the Lakeland Country Club’s board of directors, stated, “We believed strongly that we must position ourselves for the future and the new members we will be adding to our current 150-strong membership.” Source: The Ledger, December 1, 2017


L A K E L A N D – W I N T E R H AV E N

Lakeland MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

Florida & Lakeland Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

2.5

21000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

19000.0 18000.0 17000.0 16000.0

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 FL Unemployment Rate Lakeland Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

230.0 220.0 210.0 200.0 190.0 180.0 170.0

2

Lakeland Real Gross Metro Product

15000.0

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Lakeland Payroll Employment

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Real Gross Metro Product

Lakeland Real Personal Income

Lakeland Payroll Employment 240.0

1.5

20000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

1

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

(percent change year ago)

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Real Personal Income

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

47


L A K E L A N D – W I N T E R H AV E N

Annual Outlook for Lakeland, FL December 2017 2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

20.0 1.1 8.3 11.6 18.8 -0.2 31.9 30.0 42.0 1.7

20.9 4.9 8.7 12.2 19.4 3.3 32.9 30.4 42.9 2.1

21.9 4.7 9.1 12.8 20.2 4.4 33.6 31.0 43.7 2.1

22.9 4.2 9.7 13.2 20.8 3.1 34.2 31.2 44.7 2.2

23.7 3.7 10.0 13.7 21.3 2.1 34.8 31.3 45.1 0.9

24.9 5.1 10.6 14.3 22.0 3.5 36.1 31.9 46.5 3.1

26.7 7.3 11.2 15.5 23.2 5.3 38.2 33.2 48.4 4.0

28.6 6.8 11.8 16.8 24.2 4.5 40.3 34.2 50.2 3.9

30.2 5.8 12.4 17.8 25.1 3.5 42.2 35.0 52.3 4.1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 197.1 201.5 207.8 2.4 2.2 3.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 15.9 16.4 16.6 Manufacturing 8.7 3.3 1.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 181.3 185.1 191.2 Nonmanufacturing 1.9 2.1 3.3 Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining 10.9 11.4 12.1 6.8 4.1 6.8 Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities 48.1 49.4 51.7 2.1 2.8 4.6 Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade 9.4 9.5 10.1 Retail Trade 25.4 26.5 27.2 13.3 13.5 14.4 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information 1.6 1.6 1.6 -1.5 1.1 1.0 Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities 11.6 11.7 12.2 1.7 1.0 3.7 Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services 26.0 27.1 27.5 2.3 4.2 1.5 Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services 30.1 30.5 31.1 2.3 1.3 2.2 Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality 19.6 20.8 22.1 4.0 5.8 6.4 Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services 5.3 5.6 5.7 0.2 5.3 1.8 Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government 1.1 1.0 1.1 -3.7 -6.2 6.6 Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government 27.0 26.1 26.1 -1.7 -3.4 0.1 Pct Chg Year Ago

214.6 3.3 17.1 3.1 197.5 3.3 12.7 5.1 52.8 2.2 10.2 27.5 15.2 1.7 4.7 12.6 3.9 28.8 4.8 31.7 2.0 23.2 5.0 5.9 3.2 1.1 2.3 26.9 2.8

220.9 2.9 17.1 0.1 203.8 3.2 13.2 4.0 54.5 3.2 10.4 28.3 15.8 1.6 -3.1 12.7 0.9 30.0 4.3 32.9 3.7 23.7 2.2 6.1 3.1 1.1 3.0 27.8 3.5

226.2 2.4 17.3 1.2 208.9 2.5 13.8 4.5 54.9 0.7 10.6 27.8 16.0 1.6 -4.4 13.2 3.7 32.1 7.0 33.3 1.1 24.4 2.8 6.2 2.4 1.1 0.9 28.2 1.4

230.5 1.9 17.6 1.3 212.9 1.9 14.6 5.3 55.1 0.4 10.7 27.5 16.2 1.6 0.7 13.5 2.3 34.8 8.2 33.4 0.4 24.3 -0.3 6.2 0.0 1.1 -3.3 28.3 0.5

233.6 1.4 17.9 1.9 215.7 1.3 15.1 3.6 55.1 0.1 10.9 27.5 16.3 1.6 1.8 13.7 1.5 35.8 3.1 33.9 1.4 24.4 0.5 6.2 -0.3 1.2 10.5 28.6 0.8

236.6 1.3 18.0 0.5 218.6 1.4 15.5 2.9 55.4 0.4 11.0 27.7 16.5 1.6 2.2 13.9 1.6 37.0 3.3 34.3 1.4 24.7 0.8 6.2 -0.3 1.1 -11.2 28.9 1.0

667.9 2.5 284.9 1.9 5.6 4369.5 3509.6 860.0

680.5 1.9 293.3 2.9 5.0 4076.3 3996.1 80.0

690.1 1.4 297.6 1.5 5.0 5004.1 4410.5 594.0

699.1 1.3 303.7 2.1 4.8 5068.5 4195.7 873.0

707.6 1.2 310.4 2.2 4.7 5303.6 4296.3 1007.0

716.7 1.3 315.5 1.6 4.6 5506.8 4429.5 1077.0

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

48

624.5 1.3 278.5 0.5 8.2 1947.9 1915.0 33.0

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2017

636.9 2.0 278.7 0.0 7.2 2507.3 2502.4 5.0

651.7 2.3 279.6 0.3 6.3 3055.7 3020.5 35.0


L A K E L A N D – W I N T E R H AV E N

Quarterly Outlook for Lakeland, FL December 2017 2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

2020Q1

2020Q2

2020Q3

2020Q4

2021Q1

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

24 3.4 10.2 13.8

24.3 3.9 10.3 14

24.7 4.5 10.5 14.2

25.1 5.3 10.7 14.4

25.5 6.6 10.8 14.7

26 7 11 15.1

26.5 7.3 11.1 15.4

27 7.6 11.3 15.7

27.4 7.4 11.4 16

27.9 7.2 11.6 16.3

28.3 6.9 11.7 16.6

28.8 6.6 11.9 16.9

29.2 6.4 12 17.2

29.6 6.1 12.2 17.4

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

21.4 2

21.7 2.5

21.9 3

22.1 3.6

22.4 4.8

22.8 5

23 5.3

23.3 5.5

23.6 5.3

23.9 5

24.1 4.7

24.4 4.3

24.6 4.1

24.8 3.8

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

35 31.3

35.4 31.5

35.8 31.8

36.3 32

36.8 32.3

37.4 32.7

38 33

38.5 33.3

39.1 33.6

39.6 33.9

40.1 34.1

40.6 34.4

41.1 34.6

41.5 34.8

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

45.4 1.5

45.8 2.4

46.3 2.6

46.7 3.2

47.2 3.9

47.6 3.9

48.1 4

48.6 4.1

49.1 4

49.5 4

50 3.9

50.5 3.8

51 3.9

51.5 4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

222.4 2.1

224.3 2.4

225.8 2.4

226.8 2.2

227.9 2.5

229.2 2.2

230.2 1.9

230.8 1.8

231.7 1.6

232.4 1.4

233.2 1.3

234 1.4

234.7 1.3

235.4 1.3

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

17.2 0.8

17.3 1.9

17.3 1.6

17.4 0.7

17.4 0.6

17.4 0.8

17.5 0.9

17.6 1.4

17.7 2.1

17.8 2.3

17.9 2.2

17.9 1.8

18 1.3

18 0.9

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

205.2 2.2

207 2.4

208.4 2.5

209.4 2.3

210.6 2.6

211.8 2.3

212.7 2

213.2 1.8

214 1.6

214.6 1.3

215.4 1.3

216.1 1.3

216.8 1.3

217.4 1.3

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

13.6 6.5

13.7 4.9

13.8 5.1

13.9 4.9

14.1 3.2

14.3 4.8

14.5 5.5

14.7 5.7

14.8 5.3

15 4.3

15.1 3.9

15.2 3.4

15.3 2.9

15.4 2.9

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

54.8 2.2

54.8 0.7

54.8 1.2

54.9 0.5

55 0.3

55.1 0.5

55.1 0.5

55.1 0.4

55.1 0.1

55.1 0.1

55.1 0

55.2 0.1

55.2 0.3

55.3 0.3

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

10.5 28.4 15.9

10.5 28.1 15.9

10.5 27.8 16

10.6 27.6 16

10.6 27.6 16.1

10.7 27.7 16.1

10.7 27.6 16.2

10.7 27.5 16.2

10.7 27.4 16.2

10.8 27.5 16.3

10.8 27.5 16.3

10.9 27.5 16.3

10.9 27.5 16.4

11 27.5 16.4

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.6 -6.3

1.6 -7.3

1.5 -5.8

1.6 -2.7

1.6 -1.8

1.6 1

1.6 1.4

1.6 0.1

1.6 0.3

1.6 1.2

1.6 1.8

1.6 2.1

1.6 2

1.6 2.1

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

12.8 0

13 2.6

13.2 3.7

13.3 4

13.4 4.7

13.4 3.3

13.5 2.2

13.5 1.9

13.6 1.8

13.7 1.6

13.7 1.5

13.8 1.5

13.8 1.4

13.9 1.4

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

30.4 2.8

31 5.8

31.9 6.3

32.5 6.8

33.2 9.1

34.1 9.9

34.7 8.8

35 7.8

35.3 6.3

35.4 3.9

35.7 2.9

36 2.8

36.3 2.8

36.5 3.2

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

33.1 2.3

33.2 1.8

33.2 0.9

33.3 1.1

33.3 0.6

33.3 0.4

33.4 0.4

33.4 0.3

33.5 0.5

33.6 1

33.8 1.3

33.9 1.7

34.1 1.7

34.2 1.7

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

23.4 -0.9

24.2 1.5

24.4 2.2

24.5 2.9

24.5 4.7

24.4 1

24.3 -0.4

24.3 -0.9

24.3 -0.7

24.4 -0.3

24.4 0.3

24.5 0.8

24.5 1

24.6 0.8

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

6.2 3.4

6.2 3.7

6.2 3.8

6.2 1.5

6.2 0.8

6.2 0.3

6.2 0.1

6.2 -0.1

6.2 -0.3

6.2 -0.3

6.2 -0.4

6.2 -0.4

6.2 -0.3

6.2 -0.3

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.2 6

1.2 5.2

1.1 4.7

1.1 -0.9

1.1 -5.2

1.1 -8.6

1.1 -4.8

1.1 -0.8

1.1 1.4

1.2 9.5

1.3 21.8

1.2 10.3

1.1 0.6

1.1 -8.4

28.1 3

28.2 3

28.2 1.6

28.2 0.7

28.2 0.5

28.2 0.3

28.3 0.4

28.4 0.6

28.4 0.8

28.5 0.9

28.5 0.8

28.6 0.7

28.6 0.7

28.7 0.8

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

684.3 1.6

686.6 1.5

689 1.4

691.3 1.4

693.6 1.4

695.9 1.4

698 1.3

700.2 1.3

702.4 1.3

704.5 1.2

706.5 1.2

708.6 1.2

710.9 1.2

713.2 1.2

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

294.3 1.9

295.6 1

296.8 1.3

298.2 1.7

299.7 1.8

301.2 1.9

302.8 2

304.5 2.1

306.3 2.2

308.1 2.3

309.8 2.3

311.2 2.2

312.5 2

313.8 1.8

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

4.7

4.8

5

5.1

4.9

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.7

4221 4042 179

4792 4379 413

5005 4415 590

5155 4490 665

5064 4358 706

5015 4232 783

5008 4151 858

5091 4182 909

5160 4218 941

5233 4240 992

5288 4281 1006

5352 4333 1019

5342 4330 1011

5419 4381 1038

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

49


M I A M I – F O R T L AU D E R DA L E – W E S T PA L M B E AC H

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–West Palm Beach MSA is comprised of Miami-Dade County, Broward County, and Palm Beach County. Located on the southeast coast of Florida, Miami is home to the Port of Miami: the largest cruise ship port in the world and one of nation’s busiest cargo ports. Miami is also home to many sports teams including the Miami Dolphins, the Miami Heat, the Florida Marlins and the Florida Panthers, as well as many institutions of higher education including the University of Miami and Florida International University.

The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–West Palm Beach Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) area is expected to show mixed levels of growth in the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow an average of 6.5 percent annually. The average real per capita income level of $51,200 is the second highest in the areas studied. Average annual wage growth will be 3.7 percent, the second lowest of the MSAs; however, the average annual wage level is expected to be $61,400, the highest of the studied areas. Miami is expected to average a population growth of 1.2 percent each year. The area has the highest Gross Metro Product of the MSAs studied at an average level of 326,567.17 million dollars. Employment is expected to grow at an average rate of 2.2 percent each year, while unemployment is expected to be moderate at an average rate of 4.4 percent. Miami’s fastest growing sector is expected to be the Construction and Mining sector, which will experience 6.2 percent average annual growth, followed by the Professional and Business Services sector, which will grow at an average of 5.4 percent annually. The Federal Government sector will experience a decline, with average annual growth rate of -0.8 percent.

QUICK FACTS: •

Metro area population estimate of 5,828,191 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

Miami-Dade County population estimate of 2,617,176 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

Broward County population estimate of 1,838,844 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

Palm Beach County population estimate of 1,372,171 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

Civilian labor force of 3,142,522 in October 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

An unemployment rate of 3.9% as of October 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 123,139 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database).

TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: • Miami-Dade County Public Schools – 33,477 • Miami-Dade County – 25,502 • Federal Government – 19,200 • Florida State Government – 17,100 • Baptist Health South Florida – 11,353 • University of Miami – 12,818 • American Airlines – 11,031 • Jackson Health System – 9,797 • Florida International University – 3,534 Source: The Beacon Council

50

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2017

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Broward tourism officials add to budget, pledge social media focus to woo visitors in 2018 • The Greater Fort Lauderdale Convention & Visitors Bureau will invest $5 million on mediarelated marketing and advertising to attract more visitors, both domestic and international. • Of that allotment, $1 million is specifically being used to “combat negative marketplace perceptions in key U.S. source markets that may have arisen following Hurricane Irma.” • Broward’s goals still include increasing millennial, LGBTQ , and multicultural visitation, but the bureau also wants to see more group visitors and meetings as the county plans to expand its convention center and add a hotel. Source: Sun Sentinel, October 5, 2017


M I A M I – F O R T L AU D E R DA L E – W E S T PA L M B E AC H

Seminole Hard Rock Hotel & Casino in Hollywood previews 450-foot tall guitar-shaped hotel set to open in 2019 • The Seminole Hard Rock Hotel & Casino in Hollywood will be experiencing a $1.5 billion expansion. • The first addition will be a 450-foot-tall guitarshaped hotel that will add 638 rooms to the Seminole Hard Rock’s accommodations. An additional lower-level building in the new development will offer even more rooms to create a total of more than 1,300 units across all buildings. • This new facility, which is slated for summer 2019 completion, will be situated on a 10-acre complex at its base, offering cabanas with plunge pools, waterfalls, watersports, and beach club dining. • The new Hard Rock Live venue is also projected to open in mid-2019. The expansion is expected to boost the economy by creating over 2,000 construction jobs and 3,000 permanent jobs in total. Source: Sun Sentinel, October 25, 2017 Spirit: New flights to Richmond, Va., begin March 15; Columbus route starts in February • Spirit Airlines plans to add routes to expand its network in an effort to achieve double-digit operational growth in the coming years. • The airline is focusing on expansion from key U.S. markets including Fort Lauderdale. It is currently the second-busiest carrier at Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport. • Beginning February 15, Spirit will be adding nonstop service from Fort Lauderdale and Orlando to Columbus, Ohio. Daily nonstop service between Fort Lauderdale and Virginia’s Richmond International Airport on March 15.

UM Hospital can’t stop bleeding money as costs soar and admissions drop • During the year that ended May 31, the University of Miami lost $94.5 million operating the 560-bed hospital across the street from its medical school. The prior year, UM lost $45 million. • According to Moody’s Investor Service, a credit rating agency, this can be explained by the fact that not-for-profit hospitals like UM’s “are seeing higher operating expenses and lower reimbursement from private insurers and public programs, including Medicare and Medicaid.” • Declining patient admissions could also be to blame, as licensed bed occupancy fell from 81 percent in 2016 to 63 percent this year. Unfortunately, this has led to layoffs at the facility that began in May in order to manage labor costs. Source: The Miami Herald, November 27, 2017 Davie balancing construction boom with a farm park • As eastern Davie begins a construction boom, including the construction of several apartment buildings and an expansion of the downtown area with shops, restaurants, and a hotel, a farm park will be developed on the west side to “showcase the town’s heritage.” • Governor Leroy Collins Farm Park will include a 9,000-square-foot museum and hands-on experiences like petting animals and learning how to grow crops. • Although this project still has to go through a site plan approval process, the park is still slated to open next year after the city’s welcome center. Other parts of the farm park will be built as more funding is gathered. Source: Sun Sentinel, December 7, 2017

Source: Sun Sentinel, November 14, 2017

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

51


M I A M I – F O R T L AU D E R DA L E – W E S T PA L M B E AC H

Miami - Fort Lauderdale - West Palm Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Miami Unemployment Rate (percent)

12.0%

0.6

0.8

360000.0

1.4

1.6

(Millions 2000 $)

340000.0 320000.0

8.0%

300000.0 280000.0

6.0%

260000.0

4.0%

240000.0

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 FL Unemployment Rate Miami Unemployment Rate

220000.0

2900.0 2800.0 2700.0 2600.0 2500.0 2400.0 2300.0 2200.0 2100.0

(Thousands)

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Miami Payroll Employment

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2017

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Real Gross Metro Product

Miami Real Personal Income

Miami Payroll Employment

52

1.2

Miami Real Gross Metro Product

10.0%

2.0%

1

8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0%

(percent change year ago)

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Real Personal Income


M I A M I – F O R T L AU D E R DA L E – W E S T PA L M B E AC H

Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL December 2017 2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

264.4 -0.1 120.3 144.2 248.5 -1.4 45.1 42.4 50.9 1.2

284.4 7.5 127.8 156.5 263.0 5.8 47.9 44.3 52.3 2.8

299.5 5.3 136.6 162.9 276.2 5.0 49.8 46.0 54.1 3.4

312.2 4.2 144.3 167.9 284.9 3.1 51.4 46.9 55.5 2.6

323.0 3.5 149.6 173.4 290.0 1.8 52.6 47.3 56.2 1.3

340.1 5.3 158.6 181.5 300.7 3.7 54.8 48.4 57.9 3.0

366.0 7.6 168.7 197.3 317.4 5.5 58.2 50.5 60.2 3.9

391.5 7.0 178.2 213.3 332.3 4.7 61.5 52.2 62.5 3.9

414.8 5.9 188.4 226.4 344.3 3.6 64.4 53.5 65.0 4.0

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 2349.0 2428.4 2510.7 2.7 3.4 3.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 77.8 81.4 85.2 Manufacturing 1.0 4.6 4.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 2271.2 2347.1 2425.4 Nonmanufacturing 2.8 3.3 3.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 93.4 102.5 113.1 Construction & Mining 7.3 9.7 10.3 Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities 550.4 567.2 584.7 2.5 3.1 3.1 Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade 140.7 142.9 145.0 Retail Trade 313.0 324.8 335.6 96.7 99.6 104.2 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information 46.4 47.8 48.1 2.7 2.9 0.8 Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities 164.5 168.8 174.3 1.9 2.6 3.3 Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services 371.1 389.9 406.2 5.1 5.1 4.2 Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services 346.5 355.9 367.7 1.4 2.7 3.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 286.5 297.4 308.7 Leisure & Hospitality 3.9 3.8 3.8 Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services 111.8 117.2 121.3 3.0 4.8 3.5 Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government 33.5 32.7 33.2 -0.9 -2.3 1.5 Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government 267.1 267.6 268.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 Pct Chg Year Ago

2587.7 3.1 87.9 3.1 2499.9 3.1 122.9 8.7 593.1 1.4 146.0 337.8 109.4 49.3 2.4 176.0 1.0 424.6 4.5 381.1 3.6 321.8 4.2 125.1 3.2 33.6 1.2 272.4 1.6

2648.1 2.3 87.7 -0.2 2560.4 2.4 129.5 5.4 602.5 1.6 149.5 340.7 112.1 48.9 -0.9 175.0 -0.5 436.5 2.8 398.1 4.5 329.9 2.5 129.4 3.5 33.9 0.8 276.5 1.5

2725.4 2.9 87.3 -0.5 2638.1 3.0 138.6 7.0 607.5 0.8 152.0 337.3 113.9 47.7 -2.4 182.8 4.4 463.9 6.3 406.0 2.0 345.9 4.9 132.7 2.5 33.7 -0.4 279.2 1.0

2790.4 2.4 88.1 0.9 2702.3 2.4 149.3 7.7 611.1 0.6 154.6 336.1 115.5 48.2 1.0 187.7 2.7 504.1 8.7 408.0 0.5 345.6 -0.1 133.8 0.8 33.0 -2.2 281.6 0.9

2838.0 1.7 89.5 1.6 2748.5 1.7 157.8 5.7 613.0 0.3 156.9 336.6 116.5 49.0 1.7 191.5 2.1 520.7 3.3 414.5 1.6 348.6 0.9 134.4 0.4 34.8 5.5 284.2 0.9

2884.2 1.6 89.5 0.0 2794.7 1.7 164.7 4.4 616.2 0.5 158.7 338.9 117.6 50.1 2.2 195.7 2.2 538.7 3.5 421.1 1.6 353.3 1.4 134.9 0.3 32.7 -6.2 287.2 1.1

6073.9 1.1 3056.0 2.0 5.0 19019.9 6875.4 12144.0

6135.8 1.0 3141.1 2.8 4.6 16892.6 8213.4 8679.0

6207.4 1.2 3178.2 1.2 4.6 29788.4 14677.9 15111.0

6284.0 1.2 3225.3 1.5 4.4 33401.2 17088.2 16313.0

6362.2 1.2 3280.3 1.7 4.4 35586.1 18141.9 17444.0

6439.4 1.2 3329.3 1.5 4.3 37839.7 18975.0 18865.0

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5865.8 1.3 2935.9 1.0 7.2 17028.7 6269.3 10759.0

5939.0 1.2 2987.1 1.7 6.3 14451.3 5810.2 8641.0

6009.4 1.2 2994.7 0.3 5.4 20230.2 7151.7 13079.0

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

53


M I A M I – F O R T L AU D E R DA L E – W E S T PA L M B E AC H

Quarterly Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL December 2017 2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

2020Q1

2020Q2

2020Q3

2020Q4

2021Q1

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

326.3 3.3 151.4 174.9

331.8 4 154.6 177.2

336.9 4.7 157.5 179.4

342.5 5.5 159.9 182.7

349.1 7 162.5 186.6

356.2 7.3 165.2 191

362.6 7.6 167.6 195

369.5 7.9 169.9 199.6

375.7 7.6 172.2 203.5

382.4 7.4 174.5 207.9

388.7 7.2 177.1 211.6

394.6 6.8 179.4 215.2

400.4 6.6 181.9 218.5

406.5 6.3 184.4 222.1

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

291.4 1.9

295.4 2.6

298.5 3.1

302.2 3.9

306.6 5.2

311.3 5.4

315.3 5.6

319.6 5.8

323.3 5.4

327.3 5.1

330.8 4.9

334.1 4.5

337.1 4.3

340.3 4

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

53 47.3

53.7 47.8

54.4 48.2

55.1 48.6

56 49.2

56.9 49.8

57.8 50.3

58.7 50.8

59.5 51.2

60.4 51.7

61.2 52.1

61.9 52.4

62.6 52.7

63.4 53.1

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

56.5 1.8

57.1 2.4

57.6 2.6

58.2 3.2

58.7 3.9

59.3 3.9

59.9 3.9

60.4 3.9

61 3.9

61.6 3.9

62.2 3.8

62.8 3.8

63.4 3.9

64 3.9

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

2663.9 2

2695.6 2.7

2718.7 2.8

2734.6 2.8

2752.7 3.3

2771.7 2.8

2785.5 2.5

2796.3 2.3

2808.1 2

2818.2 1.7

2834.5 1.8

2844.5 1.7

2854.9 1.7

2865.7 1.7

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

87.2 -1.5

87.2 -1.6

87.4 -0.4

87.4 0.1

87.2 -0.1

87.5 0.3

87.8 0.5

88.3 1.1

88.8 1.9

89.3 2.1

89.5 1.9

89.6 1.5

89.7 1

89.6 0.4

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

2576.6 2.1

2608.4 2.8

2631.3 2.9

2647.3 2.9

2665.5 3.4

2684.2 2.9

2697.7 2.5

2708.1 2.3

2719.3 2

2729 1.7

2745 1.8

2754.8 1.7

2765.3 1.7

2776.1 1.7

135.4 8.2

136.2 8.2

137.3 7.3

139 7.8

141.9 4.8

145.3 6.7

148.1 7.9

150.7 8.4

153.2 7.9

155.3 6.8

157 6

158.6 5.2

160.2 4.6

162 4.4

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

606 1.7

606.2 1.1

606.8 0.9

607.7 0.7

609.3 0.5

610.6 0.7

611.2 0.7

611.3 0.6

611.3 0.3

612.3 0.3

612.2 0.2

613.2 0.3

614.2 0.5

614.7 0.4

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

151.5 342 112.7

151.3 339.7 113.2

151.5 337.5 113.8

152.2 336 114.1

153.2 336.1 114.6

153.9 337 115.1

154.4 336.7 115.5

154.7 335.8 115.7

155.2 335.1 115.9

156 336 116.1

156.6 336.1 116.3

157.2 336.9 116.6

157.8 337.3 117

158.2 337.5 117.2

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

48.8 -1.2

47.5 -3.3

47.3 -3.1

47.9 -2

48.2 -1.1

48.1 1.4

48.1 1.6

48.2 0.5

48.5 0.6

48.7 1.3

48.9 1.7

49.1 2

49.4 1.9

49.7 2

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

174.9 -0.1

179.3 2.5

182.6 4.4

183.9 4.8

185.2 5.9

186.2 3.8

187.1 2.5

188.1 2.3

189.3 2.2

190.2 2.2

190.9 2

192 2.1

193.1 2

194.2 2.1

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

437.9 2

447 3.4

459.4 4.9

469 7.1

480.1 9.6

493.5 10.4

502.3 9.3

508.1 8.3

512.3 6.7

514.2 4.2

517.8 3.1

523.1 2.9

527.7 3

531.7 3.4

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

404.2 4.5

405.1 3.5

405.6 2.6

406.4 1.2

407 0.7

406.8 0.4

407.3 0.4

408 0.4

409.7 0.7

411.4 1.1

413.4 1.5

415.6 1.9

417.4 1.9

419.2 1.9

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

326.2 -0.2

341.9 4.9

346.7 4.4

347.7 3.8

347.5 6.5

346.8 1.4

345.6 -0.3

344.7 -0.9

345.3 -0.6

346.5 -0.1

347.8 0.7

349.3 1.3

350.8 1.6

351.3 1.4

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

131.1 3.1

132.1 3.1

132.6 3

133 2.4

133.3 1.6

133.6 1.1

133.8 0.9

133.9 0.7

134 0.5

134.3 0.5

134.3 0.4

134.4 0.4

134.6 0.5

134.8 0.4

34.4 1.2

34.4 2.4

33.9 1.3

33.4 -1.6

33.2 -3.5

33.1 -3.8

33.1 -2.6

33 -1.3

32.9 -1

32.8 -1.1

38.8 17.3

35.1 6.4

32.7 -0.6

32.6 -0.5

277.6 0.9

278.6 1

279.1 1

279.3 1

279.8 0.8

280.2 0.6

281.2 0.7

282 1

282.9 1.1

283.4 1.1

283.9 1

284.4 0.8

285.1 0.8

285.9 0.9

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

6161.7 1.1

6179.8 1.1

6197.7 1.2

6216.4 1.2

6235.5 1.2

6254.6 1.2

6274.1 1.2

6293.8 1.2

6313.4 1.2

6333 1.3

6352.5 1.2

6372.1 1.2

6391.5 1.2

6410.6 1.2

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

3157.5 2.2

3165.4 1.7

3172.5 1

3181.7 0.9

3193.4 1.1

3205.6 1.3

3217.5 1.4

3231.8 1.6

3246.1 1.7

3260.9 1.7

3274.4 1.8

3286.9 1.7

3299 1.6

3311.6 1.6

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

54

4.3

4.5

4.6

4.7

4.6

4.5

4.4

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

19017 10190 8827

26212 12758 13454

30167 14179 15988

31371 15651 15721

31403 16124 15279

32007 16466 15541

33213 16911 16302

33980 17322 16658

34405 17654 16751

34888 17809 17080

35282 18050 17232

36074 18331 17744

36100 18378 17721

37050 18689 18361

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2017


NAPLES – IMMOKALEE – MARCO ISLAND

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Naples–Immokalee–Marco Island MSA is comprised of Collier County only. Located on the southwest coast of Florida it is notable for numerous recreation and leisure activities. This region is sometimes referred to as the “Crown Jewel of Southwest Florida”.

The Naples–Immokalee–Marco Island Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show mixed levels of growth in the economic indicators relative to the other MSAs studied. The metro area shows the highest personal income growth among the studied MSAs at an average of 8.2 percent. The real per capita income level is expected to average $79,400, the highest of the MSAs. Average annual wage will be at a level of $56,600. The average annual wage is expected to grow at 3.8 percent annually. Population growth will average 2.5 percent, the highest in the studied areas, and the Gross Metro Product will average 19,640.71 million dollars. Employment growth is expected to average 3.5 percent each year, the highest of the MSAs. The metro will see an average unemployment rate of 4.7 percent. The Construction and Mining sector represents Naples’ fastest growing sector, growing at an average rate of 7.2 percent each year. The Professional and Business Services sector will follow with an average growth rate of 6.8 percent. None of the sectors are expected to decline.

QUICK FACTS: •

Population estimate of 339,642 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

A civilian labor force of 170,295 in October 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

An unemployment rate of 3.8% as of October 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 6,398 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database).

TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: •

Naples Community Hospital – 4,000

The Ritz-Carlton, Naples – 1,110

Gargiulo, Inc. – 1,110

Arthrex, Inc – 1,056

Collier County Sheriff’s Office – 1,029

Hometown Inspection Svc. – 900

Publix – 800

Marriott – 700

Naples Grande Beach Resort – 700

Downing Frye Realty – 550

Source: Collier Business & Economic Development

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Naples Bay project to improve water quality on track for 2018 start • A $1 million project to reduce pollution in Naples Bay is planned to start in 2018. The project will include a pump station that dumps an estimated 450 million gallons of rain runoff a year. • The runoff carries nitrogen and phosphorous— both pollutants from fertilizers that can cause algae blooms—and copper, which can harm marine life. • Gregg Strakaluse, the city’s streets and stormwater director, believes that this project will be a “drop in the bucket,” as he believes the discharge into Naples Bay from the canal system is a much larger problem. Source: Naples Daily News, December 8, 2017

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

55


NAPLES – IMMOKALEE – MARCO ISLAND

Two developers vie to build theater, condos on Bayshore Drive in East Naples

Collier hits quarter-pole in debris cleanup: 1 million cubic yards

• Collier County bought the undeveloped lot for $5.35 million back in 2006 and now wants a developer to buy the land to build a theater and a mix of homes and shops.

• Collier County has now cleaned up more than one million yards of debris from Hurricane Irma. County officials estimate that Irma created 3.4 million cubic yards of waste.

• Banroc Forge Development Group, led by Harry Bandinel, has offered $3.2 million to buy the lot. The group proposed the construction of a 900seat performing arts center off-site in Sugden Park, so Banroc can construct more stores and condos on the Bayshore lot.

• The bulk of the waste is expected to be removed by the end of the year.

• Arnoc Inc., led by Arno de Villiers, has offered $3.5 million for the land. The proposal includes the construction of a 1,000-seat theater, the parking structure for the theater, and the development of 32 shops, 151 condominiums and lofts, a restaurant, and a covered market. • Commissioners are considering both proposals. Source; Naples Daily News, November 13, 2017 Brookline Cos. adds to holdings in downtown Naples with $9.35 million buy • Brookline Cos. has purchased 1.68 acres of commercial property in downtown Naples for future development; however, according to Rob Caroll—who helped handle the transaction from both sides—“there are no set plans [for the development of the property] yet.” • The property includes a three-story office building and adjacent parking. • This is Brookline’s fourth purchase in Naples since December of 2016. The total value of the four properties is $31.85 million, and Brookline may plan to buy more. Source: Naples Daily News, November 9, 2017

56

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2017

• The contractor that the county hired to remove the waste, AshBritt, has 235 vehicles working to remove waste. Source: Naples Herald, October 21, 2017 Arthrex will expand in S.C. partly due to apparent limits to growth in Collier • Athrex announced that it has plans to construct a $74 million plant in Anderson County, South Carolina. The plant will construct surgical devices and create 1,000 jobs. • Collier County Commission Chairwoman Penny Taylor says “this is a wake-up call” to Collier County to take action into diversifying the economy away from tourism, construction, and agriculture. • Multiple challenges exist in Collier for a large manufacturing company like Athrex; there is a lack of affordable workforce housing, education and training programs, space to expand into, and more. Source: Naples Daily News, October 19, 2017


NAPLES – IMMOKALEE – MARCO ISLAND

Naples - Marco Island MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Naples Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

0.8

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

22000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

18000.0 16000.0 14000.0

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 FL Unemployment Rate Naples Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

160.0 150.0 140.0 130.0 120.0 110.0 100.0

1.2

Naples Real Gross Metro Product

12000.0

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Naples Payroll Employment

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Real Gross Metro Product

Naples Real Personal Income

Naples Payroll Employment 170.0

1

20000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

0.6

21.0% 18.0% 15.0% 12.0% 9.0% 6.0% 3.0% 0.0% -3.0% -6.0% -9.0% -12.0% -15.0% -18.0%

(percent change year ago)

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Real Personal Income

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

57


NAPLES – IMMOKALEE – MARCO ISLAND

Annual Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL December 2017 2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

24.1 0.0 6.0 18.1 22.6 -1.4 70.8 66.5 48.3 3.5

26.9 11.6 6.4 20.5 24.9 9.9 77.1 71.3 48.9 1.3

28.0 4.2 6.8 21.2 25.9 3.9 78.4 72.3 49.8 1.9

29.3 4.4 7.3 22.0 26.7 3.3 79.9 72.9 51.2 2.7

30.5 4.2 7.5 23.0 27.4 2.5 81.1 72.8 51.8 1.2

32.5 6.5 8.1 24.4 28.7 4.9 84.1 74.4 53.3 3.0

35.7 9.8 8.7 27.0 30.9 7.7 90.1 78.1 55.5 4.1

38.9 9.1 9.4 29.6 33.0 6.8 95.9 81.4 57.7 4.0

41.8 7.5 10.0 31.8 34.7 5.1 100.6 83.5 60.1 4.2

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 123.3 129.9 136.1 3.9 5.4 4.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.0 3.3 3.4 Manufacturing 13.6 8.0 4.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 120.2 126.6 132.7 Nonmanufacturing 3.7 5.3 4.8 Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining 10.5 12.1 13.6 11.7 15.5 12.1 Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities 23.9 25.3 26.3 5.1 5.9 3.7 Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade 3.4 3.7 3.7 Retail Trade 19.1 20.1 20.8 1.4 1.5 1.7 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information 1.5 1.5 1.5 4.0 -0.6 2.3 Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities 7.0 7.5 8.0 4.2 7.1 6.1 Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services 13.5 14.4 15.3 1.7 6.5 5.9 Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services 18.3 18.8 19.9 1.7 3.0 5.5 Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality 24.4 25.5 26.5 3.7 4.4 3.8 Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services 7.9 8.3 8.5 6.6 5.1 1.6 Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government 0.6 0.6 0.6 -7.6 0.0 2.8 Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government 12.5 12.4 12.6 -1.7 -0.5 1.6 Pct Chg Year Ago

142.4 4.7 3.8 9.3 138.7 4.5 15.0 10.5 27.1 3.2 3.9 21.3 1.9 1.6 5.0 8.0 0.1 16.1 5.5 21.1 5.9 27.2 2.8 9.1 7.2 0.7 12.3 12.9 2.0

144.7 1.6 4.0 7.3 140.7 1.5 16.4 9.7 27.3 0.7 4.1 21.2 1.9 1.6 0.1 8.0 0.0 16.1 -0.3 21.8 3.6 26.5 -2.7 9.4 3.8 0.7 3.4 12.9 0.3

151.5 4.7 4.0 0.5 147.4 4.8 17.8 8.4 27.9 2.4 4.2 21.3 2.0 1.6 -1.0 8.6 7.4 17.4 8.3 22.5 2.9 27.9 5.4 9.9 4.6 0.7 2.5 13.2 2.0

156.8 3.5 4.1 1.6 152.7 3.6 19.4 9.0 28.4 1.8 4.4 21.5 2.1 1.6 2.1 9.0 5.2 19.2 10.3 22.8 1.5 28.0 0.3 10.1 2.2 0.7 -1.3 13.4 1.9

161.4 3.0 4.2 2.1 157.2 3.0 20.7 6.6 28.9 1.5 4.5 21.8 2.1 1.7 2.8 9.4 4.5 20.0 4.3 23.4 2.8 28.3 1.2 10.3 1.8 0.8 14.3 13.7 2.1

166.0 2.8 4.2 0.7 161.7 2.9 21.7 5.0 29.4 1.9 4.7 22.2 2.2 1.7 3.1 9.8 4.3 20.9 4.4 24.1 3.0 28.9 1.9 10.4 1.6 0.7 -11.3 14.0 2.3

366.4 2.5 167.7 2.6 4.8 3804.0 3062.5 741.0

376.5 2.7 168.4 0.4 4.4 3527.3 2854.4 673.0

386.4 2.6 167.7 -0.4 4.6 4897.3 2898.9 1998.0

396.1 2.5 169.6 1.1 4.7 5173.7 2593.8 2580.0

406.0 2.5 173.8 2.5 4.7 5528.0 2677.2 2851.0

415.8 2.4 179.1 3.1 4.6 5954.7 2819.5 3135.0

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

58

340.4 2.1 155.5 1.8 7.1 2348.3 1731.8 617.0

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2017

349.0 2.5 160.2 3.0 6.0 3267.7 2391.8 876.0

357.6 2.5 163.4 2.0 5.2 3818.2 3058.3 760.0


NAPLES – IMMOKALEE – MARCO ISLAND

Quarterly Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL December 2017 2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

2020Q1

2020Q2

2020Q3

2020Q4

2021Q1

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

30.9 4.2 7.6 23.3

31.5 4.9 7.9 23.7

32.1 5.8 8 24.1

32.8 6.8 8.2 24.6

33.6 8.6 8.3 25.2

34.4 9.2 8.5 25.9

35.2 9.7 8.7 26.6

36.1 10.2 8.8 27.3

36.9 10 9 28

37.8 9.8 9.1 28.7

38.6 9.4 9.3 29.3

39.3 8.8 9.4 29.9

40.1 8.5 9.6 30.5

40.8 8 9.8 31

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

27.6 2.7

28.1 3.5

28.5 4.3

28.9 5.2

29.5 6.8

30.1 7.2

30.6 7.6

31.3 8

31.8 7.7

32.3 7.5

32.8 7.1

33.3 6.5

33.7 6.1

34.2 5.6

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

81.3 72.7

82.4 73.3

83.4 73.9

84.6 74.7

86.1 75.6

87.7 76.7

89.2 77.6

91 78.7

92.4 79.5

93.9 80.4

95.3 81.1

96.6 81.7

97.8 82.3

99 82.9

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

52 1.4

52.5 2.2

53.1 2.7

53.6 3.2

54.1 4

54.6 4

55.2 4

55.8 4.1

56.3 4.1

56.9 4.1

57.4 3.9

58 3.9

58.6 4

59.2 4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

146.1 2.4

149 4.4

150.9 4.4

152.3 4.6

153.7 5.2

155.1 4.1

156.3 3.5

157.3 3.3

158.4 3.1

159.6 2.9

160.9 2.9

162 3

163.1 3

164.2 2.9

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

4 4.3

4 -0.4

4 0.8

4.1 0.9

4.1 0.8

4.1 1

4.1 1.1

4.1 1.7

4.2 2.4

4.2 2.6

4.2 2.4

4.2 2.1

4.2 1.5

4.2 1.2

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

142.1 2.3

145 4.5

146.9 4.5

148.2 4.7

149.6 5.3

151 4.2

152.2 3.6

153.1 3.3

154.3 3.1

155.4 2.9

156.7 3

157.8 3

158.9 3

160 2.9

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

17.3 12.2

17.4 10.3

17.6 8.6

17.9 9

18.3 5.8

18.8 8.2

19.2 9.1

19.6 9.5

20 9

20.3 7.7

20.6 7

20.8 6.3

21.1 5.6

21.4 5.3

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

27.7 2.9

27.7 3.6

27.9 2.3

28 2

28.1 1.7

28.3 1.9

28.4 1.9

28.5 1.8

28.6 1.5

28.7 1.4

28.8 1.3

28.9 1.6

29.1 1.8

29.2 1.7

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

4.2 21.5 2

4.2 21.4 2

4.2 21.3 2

4.2 21.2 2

4.3 21.3 2.1

4.3 21.4 2.1

4.4 21.5 2.1

4.4 21.5 2.1

4.4 21.5 2.1

4.5 21.6 2.1

4.5 21.7 2.1

4.5 21.8 2.1

4.6 21.9 2.2

4.6 22 2.2

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.6 0.7

1.6 -1.7

1.6 -1.9

1.6 -0.5

1.6 0.2

1.6 2.6

1.6 2.7

1.6 1.6

1.6 1.7

1.6 2.3

1.7 2.7

1.7 3

1.7 2.9

1.7 3.1

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

8 -0.4

8.3 4.2

8.6 6.6

8.7 8.3

8.8 10.3

8.9 7.1

9 4.8

9.1 4.5

9.2 4.5

9.3 4.5

9.4 4.6

9.5 4.6

9.6 4.4

9.7 4.4

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

16.3 0.9

16.7 3.6

17.2 10.1

17.6 8.1

18.1 11.3

18.7 12.4

19.1 11.1

19.4 9.9

19.6 8

19.7 5.2

19.9 4.1

20.1 4

20.4 4

20.6 4.4

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

22.2 3.9

22.3 4

22.4 3.2

22.5 2.6

22.6 1.9

22.6 1.5

22.7 1.5

22.8 1.4

23 1.6

23.2 2.2

23.4 2.7

23.5 3.1

23.7 3.2

23.9 3.3

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

25.7 -3.7

27.4 4.1

28 3

28.1 5.4

28.1 9.6

28.1 2.5

28 0

27.9 -0.7

28 -0.5

28.1 0.1

28.3 1

28.4 1.8

28.5 2

28.6 1.9

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

9.7 4.5

9.8 6.1

9.8 5.1

9.9 4.1

10 3.2

10 2.5

10.1 2.3

10.1 2.1

10.2 1.8

10.2 1.8

10.2 1.8

10.3 1.7

10.3 1.8

10.4 1.7

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

0.7 6.9

0.8 8.6

0.7 4.8

0.7 0.2

0.7 -3

0.7 -7.1

0.7 -3.1

0.7 1.2

0.8 3.9

0.8 15.6

0.9 26.1

0.8 13.6

0.8 2.8

0.7 -9.3

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

13 0.8

13.1 2

13.1 1.9

13.2 2.2

13.2 1.9

13.3 1.7

13.4 1.8

13.4 2

13.5 2.2

13.6 2.3

13.6 2.1

13.7 2

13.8 2

13.9 2

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

380.3 2.8

382.8 2.7

385.2 2.7

387.6 2.6

390 2.6

392.4 2.5

394.9 2.5

397.3 2.5

399.8 2.5

402.2 2.5

404.7 2.5

407.2 2.5

409.7 2.5

412.1 2.5

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

167.9 0.2

167.7 -0.1

167.6 -1.1

167.7 -0.4

167.9 0

168.4 0.4

169 0.8

169.9 1.3

170.9 1.8

172 2.1

173.2 2.5

174.4 2.6

175.6 2.7

176.9 2.8

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

4.2

4.4

4.6

4.8

4.7

4.6

4.6

4.7

4.7

4.8

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.7

3651 2858 794

4512 2983 1529

4967 2935 2032

5071 2902 2169

5039 2776 2262

5042 2651 2392

5126 2547 2579

5228 2575 2653

5299 2602 2697

5393 2623 2770

5463 2661 2802

5597 2703 2894

5659 2722 2937

5813 2763 3050

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

59


OCALA

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

Comprised of Marion County only, the Ocala MSA is located northwest of the Orlando area and is in the center of the state. The second largest national forest in Florida, the Ocala National Forest, and Silver Springs are two main outdoor attractions in the area.

The Ocala Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show mixed levels of growth in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to average 7.5 percent annually, the second highest of the studies areas. Real per capita income level is the second lowest of the twelve metros at an average of $35,000. Relative to the other metro areas, Ocala will have the lowest average annual wage level at $45,200. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.9 percent. The metro has an expected annual average population growth of 1.7 percent. The Gross Metro Product is expected to average 8,393.28 million dollars, which is the lowest of the studied areas. Employment growth is expected to average a rate of 2.4 percent annually. The unemployment rate is estimated to average 5.3 percent, the highest of the researched areas. The Construction and Mining sector is expected to be the fastest growing sector in Ocala, with an average annual growth rate of 6.0 percent. This is followed by the Professional and Business Services sector with 5.2 percent average annual growth. None of the sectors are expected to decline.

QUICK FACTS: •

Population estimate of 337,362 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

Civilian labor force of 135,120 in October 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

An unemployment rate of 4.0% as of October 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 5,436 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database).

TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: •

Marion County Public Schools – 6,650

Munroe Regional medical Center – 2,648

State of Florida (all departments) – 2,600

Wal-Mart – 2,370

Ocala Regional Health System – 2,166

Publix Supermarkets – 1,488

Marion County Board of County Commissioners – 1,368

Lockheed Martin – 1,018

AT&T – 1,000

City of Ocala – 989

Source: Ocala/Marion County Chamber & Economic Partnership

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES TLC will break ground for ‘the dream’ in early 2018 • Transitions Life Center and Community Inc. is a 501(c)(3) corporation that specializes in treating adults with special needs, who have aged out of the public school system. • The corporation plans to begin a four-phase project to construct a new facility; TLC plans to break ground in January or February of 2018. The TLC facility will start construction with a 7,500-square-foot community center. • Marion County approved a $600,000 grant, and the city of Ocala is donating the first nine acres of land for the project. Source: Ocala Star Banner, November 26, 2017

60

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2017


OCALA

Measure Up Marion reflects on successes • Measure Up Marion was a local initiative, funded by a $3 million Center for Disease Control grant, to improve the health of the county, focusing on decreasing rates of diabetes, obesity, and heart disease. • Maclyn Walker is the Heart of Florida’s project director and the overseer of Measure Up Marion. She said the initiative accomplished 85 percent of its goals, including working with farmers markets and fruit stands to accept EBT cards and working with 25 learning childcare sites and nearly 40 after-school programs to implement physical activity and nutrition programs. • However, the initiative is now over, and it is up to the programs created by Measure Up Marion to “continue without administrative help from the partner organizations and federal funding.” Source: Ocala Star Banner, December 3, 2017 MRMC CEO hopes to improve quality and service • CEO of Munroe Regional Medical Center, Jim O’Loughlin, replaced Bob Moore last month, and O’Loughlin has plans for a $27 million Emergency Room expansion. The plan involves completely refurbishing the 36 existing rooms and adding four more. • The ER sees about 70,000 patients annually, and a major aspect of O’Loughlin’s plan is decreasing “wall time,” which is the time that patients and EMS personnel spend waiting to transfer care from EMS to the hospital. • Leapfrog, which is a private company that grades hospitals, previously issued MRMC a rank of “D,” mostly due to poor staff communications when it involved patient care.

Trustees hope to attract new, innovative projects • The district has awarded grants to fund healthcare initiatives for the next three years. In 2017, the district gave $1.8 million to 14 recipients, and gave $6 million to the College of Central Florida’s new nursing and dental health program to create a new facility. • The new process is designed to be simpler than in previous years. • Previous grants focused on helping recipients show that their projects were effective at addressing healthcare issues, not funding the projects directly. This has changed; grants are now focused on funding and expanding innovative healthcare projects. Source: Ocala Star Banner, October 16, 2017 Stronger sales at OBS • Ocala Breeders’ Sales Company sold 115 horses on Tuesday for a total of $4,989,400. The median sales price was $32,000, which is up 28 percent from last year. • Although the sales are stronger, Terry Gabriel, a buyer from New Orleans, felt as though the effects from the 2008 recession are still present. He mentioned that middle-class buyers, who used to pool money together to invest in a horse, were not as frequent. • With fewer middle-class buyers, it may mean trouble for lower-class breeders, who have faced a serious downward shift in demand. Source: Ocala Star Banner, October 11, 2017

Source: Ocala Star Banner, November 5, 2017

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

61


OCALA

Ocala MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Ocala Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

0.8

1.6

1.8

2

9000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

7500.0 7000.0

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 FL Unemployment Rate Ocala Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

105.0 100.0 95.0 90.0

62

1.4

8000.0

110.0

85.0

1.2

Ocala Real Gross Metro Product

6500.0

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Ocala Payroll Employment

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2017

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Real Gross Metro Product

Ocala Real Personal Income

Ocala Payroll Employment 115.0

1

8500.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

0.6

12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

(percent change year ago)

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Real Personal Income


OCALA

Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL December 2017 2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

10.6 -0.7 3.6 7.0 9.9 -2.0 31.4 29.5 38.3 1.4

11.1 4.9 3.7 7.4 10.2 3.3 32.6 30.2 38.7 1.1

11.6 4.7 3.9 7.7 10.7 4.4 33.7 31.1 39.9 3.0

12.1 4.6 4.1 8.0 11.1 3.5 34.7 31.7 40.8 2.3

12.7 4.3 4.3 8.4 11.4 2.7 35.6 32.0 41.2 1.1

13.4 6.0 4.5 8.9 11.9 4.4 37.1 32.8 42.5 3.2

14.6 8.8 4.8 9.8 12.7 6.8 39.7 34.4 44.3 4.1

15.8 8.3 5.1 10.7 13.4 6.0 42.2 35.8 46.1 4.0

16.9 6.9 5.5 11.4 14.0 4.6 44.4 36.9 48.0 4.3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 92.8 95.6 97.5 2.0 3.0 2.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 6.9 7.2 7.6 Manufacturing 3.0 4.5 4.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 85.9 88.3 89.9 Nonmanufacturing 1.9 2.9 1.8 Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining 5.8 6.2 6.5 8.2 7.7 3.5 Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities 21.5 22.1 22.6 2.7 2.8 2.2 Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade 3.4 3.2 3.3 Retail Trade 15.1 15.7 16.1 3.0 3.2 3.2 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information 0.8 0.8 0.8 -6.4 -5.0 -0.1 Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities 4.2 4.1 4.1 -0.2 -2.1 -1.3 Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services 9.1 9.5 9.2 5.6 5.1 -3.4 Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services 14.3 16.8 17.7 0.6 17.2 5.2 Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality 10.6 11.1 11.9 2.7 4.6 6.7 Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 5.6 0.4 Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.1 -0.1 Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government 15.9 13.9 13.6 -1.6 -12.8 -2.2 Pct Chg Year Ago

100.8 3.4 7.9 4.0 92.9 3.3 7.0 7.9 23.2 2.8 3.4 16.4 3.4 0.8 0.1 3.8 -5.9 9.5 3.3 18.3 3.8 12.6 6.0 3.2 3.6 0.7 0.1 13.9 2.2

103.3 2.4 8.1 2.6 95.2 2.4 7.6 9.7 23.8 2.7 3.3 16.9 3.6 0.7 -9.5 3.8 -0.8 10.1 6.1 18.8 2.6 12.4 -1.4 3.2 2.2 0.7 2.5 13.9 0.6

106.2 2.9 8.2 0.9 98.1 3.0 8.2 7.1 24.1 1.1 3.3 16.8 3.7 0.7 -6.2 4.0 6.2 10.6 5.2 19.2 1.8 13.0 5.1 3.3 3.3 0.7 2.5 14.2 2.0

108.7 2.4 8.3 1.1 100.5 2.5 8.8 7.5 24.4 1.1 3.3 16.9 3.8 0.7 1.5 4.2 4.4 11.5 8.1 19.4 1.1 13.1 0.3 3.4 1.8 0.7 -2.1 14.4 1.3

111.1 2.2 8.4 1.9 102.7 2.2 9.3 5.4 24.5 0.8 3.4 17.0 3.8 0.7 2.8 4.4 3.7 11.9 3.6 19.8 2.4 13.2 1.2 3.4 1.4 0.8 11.6 14.6 1.5

113.4 2.0 8.4 0.2 105.0 2.2 9.7 4.1 24.8 1.1 3.4 17.2 3.9 0.7 3.1 4.5 3.5 12.3 3.9 20.4 2.6 13.5 1.7 3.5 1.1 0.7 -10.3 14.9 1.8

349.7 1.6 132.7 2.0 5.8 1410.8 1407.7 3.0

355.7 1.7 136.1 2.6 5.1 1987.3 1805.4 182.0

361.8 1.7 137.6 1.1 5.3 2916.9 2577.2 340.0

368.1 1.7 140.7 2.2 5.3 3140.9 2897.6 243.0

374.5 1.7 144.7 2.8 5.3 3286.6 3034.7 252.0

380.9 1.7 148.4 2.6 5.2 3410.9 3141.7 269.0

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

336.3 0.6 130.8 0.2 8.5 597.6 582.0 16.0

339.7 1.0 131.6 0.7 7.3 735.8 696.6 39.0

344.3 1.3 130.0 -1.2 6.4 1067.3 1066.7 1.0

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

63


OCALA

Quarterly Outlook for Ocala, FL December 2017 2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

2020Q1

2020Q2

2020Q3

2020Q4

2021Q1

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

12.8 3.8 4.3 8.5

13 4.3 4.4 8.6

13.3 5.2 4.5 8.8

13.5 6.5 4.6 8.9

13.8 7.9 4.7 9.2

14.1 8.4 4.7 9.4

14.4 8.8 4.8 9.6

14.8 9.2 4.9 9.9

15.1 9 5 10.1

15.4 8.8 5 10.4

15.7 8.5 5.1 10.6

16 8.1 5.2 10.8

16.2 7.8 5.3 11

16.5 7.4 5.3 11.2

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

11.4 2.3

11.6 2.9

11.8 3.7

11.9 4.8

12.1 6.1

12.4 6.4

12.6 6.8

12.8 7.1

13 6.8

13.2 6.6

13.3 6.2

13.5 5.7

13.7 5.5

13.8 5

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

35.8 32

36.3 32.3

36.8 32.6

37.3 32.9

38 33.3

38.7 33.8

39.3 34.2

40 34.6

40.7 35

41.3 35.4

41.9 35.7

42.5 36

43.1 36.3

43.6 36.5

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

41.5 1.6

41.9 2.4

42.3 2.8

42.7 3.4

43.2 4.1

43.6 4.1

44 4.1

44.5 4.2

44.9 4.1

45.4 4.1

45.8 4

46.3 4

46.8 4.1

47.3 4.1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

103.7 1.2

105.1 2.1

106 2.8

106.6 3.2

107.2 3.4

107.9 2.7

108.5 2.3

109 2.2

109.6 2.2

110.2 2.1

110.9 2.2

111.4 2.2

112 2.2

112.5 2.1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

8.1 2.2

8.2 1.6

8.2 1.4

8.2 0.3

8.2 0.1

8.2 0.4

8.2 0.6

8.3 1.3

8.3 2.3

8.4 2.4

8.4 2.2

8.4 1.9

8.4 1.2

8.4 0.6

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

95.6 1.1

96.9 2.2

97.8 2.9

98.4 3.4

99.1 3.6

99.7 2.9

100.2 2.5

100.7 2.3

101.3 2.2

101.8 2.1

102.5 2.2

103 2.3

103.5 2.3

104.1 2.2

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

8 10.9

8 9.2

8.1 7.2

8.2 7.3

8.4 5

8.6 6.9

8.7 7.7

8.9 7.9

9 7.5

9.1 6.3

9.2 5.8

9.3 5.1

9.4 4.5

9.5 4.3

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

23.9 0.6

24 0.4

24 1.5

24.1 1.3

24.2 1.1

24.3 1.3

24.3 1.3

24.4 1.1

24.4 0.8

24.5 0.7

24.5 0.6

24.6 0.8

24.6 1

24.7 1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.2 17.1 3.6

3.2 17 3.7

3.2 16.8 3.7

3.3 16.8 3.7

3.3 16.8 3.7

3.3 16.9 3.7

3.3 16.9 3.8

3.3 16.8 3.8

3.3 16.8 3.8

3.4 16.9 3.8

3.4 17 3.8

3.4 17 3.8

3.4 17.1 3.9

3.4 17.1 3.9

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

0.7 -12.6

0.7 -15

0.7 -4.7

0.7 -2.6

0.7 -1.5

0.7 1.8

0.7 2.3

0.7 0.8

0.7 1

0.7 2.1

0.7 2.8

0.7 3.2

0.7 3

0.7 3.1

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

3.8 -0.8

3.9 2.4

4 5.8

4.1 7.4

4.1 9.3

4.1 6.3

4.2 4.1

4.2 3.8

4.3 3.8

4.3 3.8

4.3 3.8

4.4 3.8

4.4 3.6

4.5 3.6

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

10 1.5

10.3 1

10.5 3.5

10.7 7.3

11 9

11.2 9.5

11.4 8.6

11.6 7.7

11.7 6.5

11.7 4.4

11.8 3.4

11.9 3.3

12.1 3.4

12.2 3.7

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

19 1.6

19 1.2

19.1 2

19.2 2.3

19.3 1.6

19.3 1.2

19.3 1.1

19.4 1

19.5 1.3

19.6 1.8

19.8 2.3

19.9 2.7

20 2.8

20.2 2.9

12.1 -4.5

12.8 3.2

13.1 4

13.1 4.9

13.1 8.5

13.1 2.3

13.1 0.1

13 -0.6

13.1 -0.4

13.1 0.2

13.2 1

13.3 1.7

13.3 1.9

13.4 1.7

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

3.3 2.3

3.3 2.6

3.3 3.8

3.3 3.9

3.4 2.9

3.4 2.1

3.4 1.8

3.4 1.6

3.4 1.4

3.4 1.4

3.4 1.4

3.4 1.3

3.4 1.4

3.5 1.2

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

0.8 6.9

0.8 8.5

0.7 5.9

0.7 0.1

0.7 -4

0.7 -7.5

0.7 -3.7

0.7 0.3

0.7 2.5

0.8 10.9

0.9 22.7

0.8 11.4

0.8 1.6

0.7 -7.6

14.1 1.5

14.2 3.1

14.2 1.8

14.2 1.7

14.3 1.4

14.3 1.1

14.4 1.2

14.4 1.5

14.5 1.6

14.6 1.7

14.6 1.5

14.7 1.4

14.7 1.4

14.8 1.5

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

358.1 1.8

359.5 1.7

361 1.7

362.6 1.7

364.1 1.7

365.7 1.7

367.3 1.7

368.9 1.7

370.5 1.8

372.1 1.8

373.7 1.7

375.3 1.7

376.9 1.7

378.5 1.7

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

136.3 1.1

136.8 0.2

137.3 1

137.9 1.5

138.6 1.7

139.4 1.9

140.2 2.1

141.2 2.4

142.1 2.6

143.2 2.7

144.2 2.9

145.2 2.8

146.1 2.8

147 2.7

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

64

4.9

5.1

5.3

5.5

5.4

5.2

5.3

5.3

5.4

5.4

5.3

5.3

5.3

5.2

2329 2040 289

2703 2347 355

2880 2506 374

3026 2690 336

3058 2766 293

3078 2820 258

3124 2891 232

3163 2922 240

3200 2957 243

3242 2993 249

3272 3023 249

3313 3058 254

3320 3066 255

3362 3098 265

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2017


ORLANDO – KISSIMMEE – SANFORD

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Orlando–Kissimmee–Sanford MSA is comprised of Lake, Orange, Osceola and Seminole Counties. Located in the southern center of the state, this area is home to numerous tourist attractions such as Walt Disney World, Universal Studios and Sea World. It is also home to the Orlando Magic and the Orlando City Soccer Club. Orlando hosts many conventions utilizing some of the biggest hotels in the country and America’s second largest convention center. The University of Central Florida, the nation’s second largest university, and many other places of higher education also reside in the MSA.

The Orlando–Kissimmee–Sanford Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show varying strengths and weaknesses in the economic indicators relative to the other MSAs studied. Personal income growth is expected to average 7.0 percent each year. Real per capita income levels should average $39,300. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.6 percent. Average annual wage levels should be at $54,100. Population growth is expected to be an average of 2.0 percent, and the Gross Metro Product level is expected to average 138,335.41 million dollars. Employment growth is forecasted to average 2.8 percent each year. The metro will see an average unemployment rate of 3.9 percent, the third lowest of the studied MSAs. Construction and Mining is expected to be the fastest growing sector in the area, averaging 6.5 percent growth annually. The Professional and Business Services sector will see the second highest average annual growth rate at 6.0 percent, followed by the Financial and Other Services sectors at 3.2 and 2.1 percent average annual growth, respectively. The Federal Government sector will experience a decline, contracting at an average rate of -0.2 percent per year.

QUICK FACTS: • •

• •

MSA population estimate of 2,267,846 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). Lake County population estimate of 308,034 as of July 1, 2013 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). Orange County population estimate of 1,224,267 as of July 1, 2013 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). Osceola County population estimate of 298,504 as of July 1, 2013 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). Seminole County population estimate of 436,041 as of July 1, 2013 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). Civilian labor force of 1,298,242 in October 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database). An unemployment rate of 3.2% as of October 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 40,918 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database).

TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: • Walt Disney World Resort – 74,000 • Universal Orlando (Comcast) – 21,000 • Florida Hospital (Adventist Health) – 20,413 • Publix – 19,783 • Orlando International Airport – 18,000 • Orlando Health – 16,828 • University of Central Florida – 11,833 • Lockheed Martin – 7,000 • Darden Restaurants – 6,149 • SeaWorld Parks & Entertainment – 6,032 • Rosen Hotels & Resorts – 4,526 Source: Orlando Economic Partnership

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Northrop Grumman lands $13.4M contract, adding 450+ local jobs • On October 12, the U.S. Army granted Northrop Grumman Corp. a $13.4 million contract with a completion date of February 13, 2019. • Under this major contract, Northrop Grumman will be producing Spider Increment 1A, a military weapons remote control system. • This contract, in addition to several others the company has recently won, has opened up over 450 positions in Central Florida to keep up with demand, including those for mechanical engineers, human factors engineers, software engineers, and more. Source: Orlando Business Journal, October 13, 2017

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

65


ORLANDO – KISSIMMEE – SANFORD

New toll-road ramp to open, connect to Tavistock’s Sunbridge mega community • A new eastbound State Road 528 exit ramp to Innovation Way opened on October 31, taking motorists south on Sunbridge Parkway and connecting them to Aerospace Parkway and International Corporate Park Boulevard. • This ramp is one of the four ramps included in the $62.5 million SR 528/Innovation Way Interchange project. The project also includes two ramp plazas and the extension of Alafaya Trail to Aerospace Parkway. • The interchange will also lead to the future 24,000-acre Sunbridge community, which is predicted to increase business and job opportunities in Orange and Osceola counties. The entire project is expected to be complete in early 2019.

New $25M Lake Nona golf driving range tees up hiring plans • Drive Shack Inc., a new global golf entertainment company, will be opening its first location in Lake Nona’s 300-acre Sports & Performance District. • The sports center will include a threestory, 57,000-square-foot driving range and entertainment facility with a restaurant, lounge, bar, 90 hitting bays, and meeting spaces. • This project, which is estimated to cost between $20 million and $25 million, will be opening in the first quarter of 2018. To prepare for its opening, Drive Shack will be hosting job fairs at the Guidewell Innovation Center from December 4 to December 30 to hire for multiple positions, from food runners to office supervisors. Source: Orlando Business Journal, November 27, 2017

Source: Orlando Business Journal, October 27, 2017 Tampa developer to buy Orlando Fashion Square? Creative Village student-housing project secures $100M in financing • Holliday Fenoglio Fowler LP has secured over $100 million to fund the development of a mixed-use student housing high-rise at Creative Village in downtown Orlando. • The complex will provide 600 beds and 105,000 square feet of space to be leased to UCF and Valencia for educational purposes, 12,000 square feet of commercial space, and a 600-space parking garage. • The project, which is part of the $1 billion Creative Village project, is set to be completed just in time for the August 2019 opening of the UCF Downtown campus. Source: Orlando Business Journal, November 8, 2017

66

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2017

• The 44-year-old Orlando Fashion Square mall has been struggling lately, but Tampa-based DeBartolo Development Co. has reportedly made an offer and signed a letter of intent to purchase the property. • DeBartolo is also the company behind the $100 million Market at Mills Park mixed-use complex north of downtown. • Orlando Fashion Square has been on the market since August 2017. If this sale closes in February, as predicted, it would be the fourth time the mall has been under new ownership since 2004. Source: Orlando Business Journal, December 7, 2017


ORLANDO – KISSIMMEE – SANFORD

Orlando - Kissimmee MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Orlando Unemployment Rate (percent)

12.0%

0.6

0.8

1.2

1.4

1.6

Orlando Real Gross Metro Product 150000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

140000.0

10.0%

130000.0

8.0%

120000.0 110000.0

6.0%

100000.0

4.0% 2.0%

1

90000.0

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 FL Unemployment Rate Orlando Unemployment Rate

80000.0

Orlando Real Personal Income

Orlando Payroll Employment 1400.0

(Thousands)

12.0%

(percent change year ago)

9.0%

1300.0

6.0%

1200.0

3.0%

1100.0

0.0%

1000.0

-3.0%

900.0

-6.0%

800.0

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Real Gross Metro Product

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 OrlandoPayroll Employment

-9.0%

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Real Personal Income

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

67


ORLANDO – KISSIMMEE – SANFORD

Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL December 2017 2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

80.6 3.0 48.1 32.5 75.7 1.6 35.4 33.3 44.9 0.9

86.2 7.0 51.4 34.8 79.7 5.3 37.0 34.2 46.2 2.7

92.2 7.0 55.5 36.8 85.0 6.6 38.6 35.6 47.7 3.4

97.7 5.9 59.4 38.3 89.1 4.8 39.9 36.4 49.0 2.7

102.2 4.6 62.1 40.1 91.7 2.9 40.8 36.6 49.7 1.4

108.6 6.3 66.3 42.3 96.0 4.7 42.4 37.5 51.2 3.0

117.3 8.0 70.8 46.5 101.7 5.9 44.9 38.9 53.1 3.8

125.7 7.2 75.0 50.7 106.7 4.9 47.2 40.0 55.1 3.6

133.9 6.5 79.7 54.2 111.2 4.2 49.3 40.9 57.2 3.8

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 1065.3 1108.8 1157.5 3.3 4.1 4.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 38.2 39.6 41.0 Manufacturing 0.5 3.7 3.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 1027.2 1069.2 1116.5 Nonmanufacturing 3.4 4.1 4.4 Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining 51.2 55.9 61.0 10.8 9.3 9.0 Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities 204.3 212.8 220.9 3.2 4.1 3.8 Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade 40.1 41.9 43.4 Retail Trade 132.9 138.6 142.7 31.3 32.3 34.8 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information 23.6 23.9 24.0 -0.2 1.3 0.6 Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities 69.7 70.4 71.1 3.7 0.9 1.1 Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services 175.6 183.5 194.9 3.8 4.5 6.2 Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services 131.4 135.7 143.2 2.6 3.3 5.5 Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality 218.6 231.0 240.2 4.0 5.7 4.0 Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services 36.0 38.0 41.0 3.3 5.6 8.0 Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government 12.4 12.6 12.9 0.6 1.6 2.8 Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government 104.5 105.5 107.3 0.6 0.9 1.7 Pct Chg Year Ago

1206.3 4.2 42.4 3.6 1163.9 4.2 68.0 11.6 227.2 2.8 44.2 145.5 37.5 23.8 -0.8 74.1 4.1 205.3 5.3 148.4 3.6 249.7 4.0 44.2 7.6 14.0 8.4 109.2 1.8

1244.6 3.2 44.4 4.5 1200.2 3.1 74.0 8.8 234.6 3.3 46.9 149.5 38.0 23.4 -1.8 78.2 5.6 211.2 2.9 150.9 1.7 258.6 3.6 45.8 3.7 14.6 4.5 108.9 -0.3

1289.8 3.6 45.0 1.4 1244.8 3.7 79.4 7.3 237.5 1.2 47.7 148.6 38.5 23.2 -0.8 82.5 5.5 224.7 6.4 154.3 2.3 270.2 4.5 47.6 3.9 14.7 0.2 110.8 1.7

1328.1 3.0 45.6 1.3 1282.5 3.0 85.8 8.1 240.3 1.2 49.1 148.8 39.3 23.6 1.9 84.8 2.8 246.0 9.5 155.9 1.0 271.2 0.4 48.5 1.8 14.5 -1.4 112.0 1.1

1358.0 2.3 46.4 1.9 1311.6 2.3 90.9 6.0 242.2 0.8 50.3 150.0 39.8 24.2 2.3 86.6 2.2 255.9 4.0 159.2 2.1 274.6 1.3 49.1 1.3 15.3 5.5 113.5 1.3

1389.0 2.3 46.7 0.5 1342.3 2.3 95.2 4.7 244.7 1.0 51.3 152.0 40.4 24.8 2.7 88.7 2.4 266.5 4.1 162.9 2.3 279.7 1.9 49.7 1.1 14.5 -5.0 115.6 1.8

2448.5 2.5 1254.8 2.9 4.5 21558.1 14590.0 6968.0

2505.5 2.3 1299.5 3.6 3.9 18994.6 14726.3 4268.0

2560.4 2.2 1312.4 1.0 4.0 23053.7 16100.5 6953.0

2612.8 2.0 1332.3 1.5 3.9 24128.5 16417.3 7711.0

2664.4 2.0 1357.3 1.9 3.9 25557.2 17096.8 8460.0

2715.4 1.9 1381.5 1.8 3.8 26870.6 17763.4 9107.0

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

68

2276.9 2.0 1179.1 1.4 7.0 14845.3 9064.2 5781.0

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2017

2330.8 2.4 1204.1 2.1 6.0 14473.0 9695.0 4778.0

2389.5 2.5 1219.1 1.2 5.1 19275.3 12022.1 7253.0


ORLANDO – KISSIMMEE – SANFORD

Quarterly Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL December 2017 2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

2020Q1

2020Q2

2020Q3

2020Q4

2021Q1

103.2 4.1 62.7 40.5

105.5 4.7 64.4 41.1

107.5 5.5 65.8 41.7

109.5 6.6 66.9 42.6

111.7 8.2 68.1 43.6

114.1 8.1 69.3 44.8

116.2 8.1 70.3 45.8

118.4 8.1 71.3 47.1

120.4 7.8 72.3 48.1

122.6 7.5 73.4 49.3

124.7 7.4 74.5 50.3

126.8 7.1 75.6 51.2

128.8 6.9 76.7 52.1

130.9 6.7 77.8 53

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

92.2 2.6

94 3.2

95.3 4

96.6 5

98.1 6.4

99.7 6.1

101 6

102.4 6

103.6 5.6

104.9 5.3

106.2 5.1

107.3 4.8

108.4 4.6

109.6 4.4

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

40.9 36.5

41.5 37

42.1 37.3

42.7 37.6

43.3 38

44 38.4

44.6 38.8

45.2 39.1

45.8 39.4

46.4 39.7

46.9 39.9

47.5 40.2

48 40.4

48.5 40.6

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

50 1.9

50.5 2.5

51 2.6

51.4 3.1

51.9 3.9

52.4 3.8

52.9 3.8

53.4 3.8

53.9 3.7

54.3 3.7

54.8 3.6

55.3 3.6

55.8 3.6

56.4 3.7

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

1249.3 2.2

1271.2 2.7

1285.9 3.4

1295.8 3.9

1306.3 4.6

1317.2 3.6

1325 3

1331.5 2.8

1338.6 2.5

1345.3 2.1

1354.9 2.3

1362.2 2.3

1369.5 2.3

1376.8 2.3

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

44.8 5

44.8 1.9

45 2.5

45 0.6

45 0.5

45.2 0.8

45.4 0.9

45.7 1.4

46 2.1

46.2 2.3

46.4 2.1

46.5 1.8

46.6 1.3

46.6 0.8

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

1204.5 2.1

1226.4 2.7

1240.9 3.4

1250.8 4

1261.3 4.7

1272 3.7

1279.6 3.1

1285.8 2.8

1292.6 2.5

1299 2.1

1308.6 2.3

1315.7 2.3

1322.9 2.3

1330.2 2.4

77.2 11.1

77.8 8.2

78.6 8.1

79.7 7.8

81.4 5.4

83.4 7.2

85.1 8.2

86.6 8.7

88.1 8.2

89.3 7.1

90.4 6.3

91.4 5.6

92.4 4.9

93.5 4.7

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

235.8 2.9

236.4 1.2

237 1

237.8 1.5

238.7 1.2

239.7 1.4

240.2 1.3

240.6 1.2

240.9 0.9

241.5 0.8

241.8 0.6

242.5 0.8

243.2 1

243.7 0.9

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

47.3 150.7 38

47.3 149.7 38.2

47.5 148.7 38.5

47.8 148 38.6

48.3 148.2 38.8

48.7 149 39.1

49 149 39.2

49.2 148.7 39.4

49.4 148.6 39.5

49.8 149.3 39.6

50.1 149.7 39.7

50.5 150.2 39.9

50.8 150.7 40.1

51 151 40.2

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

23.5 -0.8

23 -1.4

23 -1.4

23.3 -0.6

23.5 0.1

23.5 2.3

23.5 2.5

23.6 1.4

23.8 1.4

24 2

24.1 2.2

24.2 2.5

24.4 2.4

24.6 2.5

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

79 5.2

80.9 6.3

82.4 4.9

83 4.9

83.6 5.9

84.1 3.9

84.5 2.6

85 2.4

85.5 2.3

86 2.2

86.3 2.1

86.8 2.2

87.4 2.2

87.9 2.3

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

211.1 1

215.8 1.9

222.3 5.4

227.4 7.8

233.3 10.5

240.3 11.3

245 10.2

248.2 9.2

250.6 7.4

252 4.9

254.3 3.8

257.4 3.7

260 3.8

262.4 4.1

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

152.8 1.7

153.5 2.1

154 3.2

154.6 2.3

155.1 1.5

155.1 1

155.5 1

156 0.9

156.8 1.1

157.6 1.6

158.7 2

159.8 2.4

160.7 2.5

161.7 2.6

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

253.8 -0.2

266.4 2.9

270.7 3.4

271.8 4.5

272 7.2

271.8 2

271.1 0.2

270.6 -0.4

271.3 -0.3

272.4 0.2

273.9 1

275.3 1.7

276.8 2

277.7 1.9

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

46.6 4.9

47.1 4.8

47.5 3.9

47.7 4

48 3

48.2 2.2

48.4 1.9

48.6 1.7

48.7 1.5

48.9 1.4

49 1.4

49.2 1.2

49.3 1.3

49.5 1.2

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

14.9 3.3

14.9 2.9

14.7 1.4

14.6 -0.7

14.5 -2.6

14.5 -2.9

14.5 -1.8

14.5 -0.6

14.5 -0.3

14.4 -0.8

16.8 16.1

15.4 6.6

14.5 0.1

14.4 0.5

109.9 0.4

110.4 2.2

110.7 1.9

110.9 1.4

111.2 1.2

111.4 1

111.8 1.1

112.2 1.2

112.6 1.2

112.9 1.3

113.3 1.3

113.7 1.3

114.2 1.4

114.7 1.6

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2526.6 2.3

2540.5 2.3

2553.9 2.2

2567 2.2

2580 2.1

2593.3 2.1

2606.4 2.1

2619.4 2

2632.2 2

2645.1 2

2658 2

2670.9 2

2683.7 2

2696.3 1.9

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1303.5 2.8

1307 1.1

1310.1 0.8

1313.8 1

1318.7 1.2

1323.8 1.3

1328.9 1.4

1335.1 1.6

1341.3 1.7

1347.8 1.8

1354.4 1.9

1360.5 1.9

1366.6 1.9

1372.6 1.8

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

3.7

3.8

4

4.1

4

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.9

18467 14698 3770

21800 15748 6052

23309 15973 7336

23685 16388 7297

23421 16293 7128

23510 16226 7284

23977 16303 7674

24360 16475 7885

24667 16666 8001

25067 16826 8241

25349 17017 8331

25908 17244 8665

25905 17301 8604

26407 17507 8900

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

69


P A L M B AY – M E L B O U R N E – T I T U S V I L L E

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville MSA is comprised of Brevard County only. Typically known as “Florida’s Space Coast”, this area is home to the Kennedy Space Center. Located in the central part of Florida’s east coast, the region is home to Cape Canaveral Air Force Base, Patrick Air Force Base and government contractors such as Harris Corporation. Like much of Florida, this area is growing fast; Port Canaveral is now a leading cruise ship port.

The Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show varying strengths and weaknesses in the economic indicators relative to the other MSAs studied. Personal income growth is expected to average 6.7 percent each year. Real per capita income levels should average $41,500. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 4.0 percent. Average annual wage levels should be at $56,300. Population growth is expected to be an average of 1.2 percent, and the Gross Metro Product level is expected to average 21,446.13 million dollars. Employment growth is forecasted to average 2.1 percent each year. The metro will see an average unemployment rate of 4.5 percent. Construction and Mining is expected to be the fastest growing sector in the area, averaging 6.2 percent growth annually. The Professional and Business Services sector will see the second highest average annual growth rate at 5.3 percent, followed by the Financial and Education-Health Services sectors at 2.9 and 1.6 percent average annual growth, respectively. The Federal Government sector will experience a decline, averaging -1.1 percent growth each year.

QUICK FACTS: •

Population estimate of 550,823 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

Civilian labor force of 268,516 in October 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

An unemployment rate of 3.5% as of October 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 9,441 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database).

TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: •

Brevard County School Board – 9,520

Health First, Inc. – 7,800

Harris Corporation – 5,890

Brevard County Government – 2,380

Department of Defense – 2,170

NASA – 2,067

Eastern Florida State College – 1,590

Rockwell Collins Inc. – 1,410

Florida Institute Of Technology – 1,280

Northrop Grumman Corporation – 1,345

Brevard County Sheriff Office – 1,175

Parrish Medical Center – 1,075

Wuesthoff Medical Center – 1,055

Source: Brevard Economic Development Council, 2011

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Hurricane Irma: Brevard racks up $157M worth of structural damage • Newly released figures reflect a total of an estimated $157 million in damanges in Brevard County due to Hurricane Irma, despite the storm’s worst impacts occurring on the other coast of the state. • This figure far outweighs the $35 million in damages caused by Hurricane Matthew in 2016, which brushed along the state’s east coast. The additional damage is due to the impacts of eight tornadoes that Irma spawned in Brevard. • More than 50,000 Brevard residents have registered for FEMA assistance, and even with many applications still pending, the residents have already qualified for $12.4 million in assistance. Source: Florida Today, October 5, 2017

70

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2017


P A L M B AY – M E L B O U R N E – T I T U S V I L L E

Affordable Care Act insurance premiums rising for tens of thousands in Brevard • The new year will bring rate increases for Affordable Care Act premiums for tens of thousands of Brevard County residents. • The insurance companies that offer ACA coverage in Brevard include Florida Blue, Florida HealthCare Plans, and Health First Health Plans. The increases are largely a result of President Donald Trump’s decision to end certain federal subsidy programs. • Health First Health Plans will have the largest number of affected policyholders in Brevard, as roughly 20,000 policyholders will see rate increases averaging 39 percent. Source: Florida Today, October 16, 2017 Blue Origin’s KSC rocket factory coming together ahead of December opening • Jeff Bezos’s rocketry company, Blue Origin, has almost completed construction of its huge new factory at the Kennedy Space Center. • The facility will be 750,000 square feet and will be responsible for producing the company’s New Glenn rockets, which will be reusable. This particular plant will assemble the 270- and 330foot versions. • Blue Origin will not be alone, as a OneWeb Satellites assembly plant is also nearing completion across the street. That factory will produce small satellites to provide broadband internet. Source: Florida Today, November 3, 2017 Brevard commissioners not pushing use of tourist tax for lagoon cleanup projects • Despite the efforts of Brevard County Commissioner John Tobia, the County Commission will not pass a resolution urging Brevard’s six representatives to the Florida Legislature to vote for changes in how tourism tax can be allocated. • Tobia’s goal was to change the language of a state statute that currently limits the use of the Tourist

Development Tax to certain objectives. The change would allow the County Commission to divert those tax dollars toward Indian River Lagoon restoration projects. • Other commissioners would rather explore alternatives, as they argue the tourism tax was not intended for lagoon cleanup. While all have voiced concern for the lagoon, the crux of the issue lies in what the source of the funding will be. Source: Florida Today, November 8, 2017 Global business delegation touring the Space Coast Tuesday for best practices, innovation gains • A group of delegates from around the world will tour the Florida Institute of Technology’s Center for Advanced Manufacturing and Innovative Design, NASA’s Kennedy Space Center, and Port Canaveral to observe the reasons behind the area’s success in innovation. • The group hails from the Americas Competitiveness Exchange, and it will also visit several other Florida locations known for innovation. The organization’s goal is to promote hemispheric ties asl well as economic and social development. • The tour group will consist of high-ranking officials and dignitaries from 24 nations. Source: Florida Today, December 4, 2017 Port Canaveral commissioners abandon cargo rail plan • On Wednesday, Port Canaveral commissioners voted unanimously to withdraw a proposal for a cargo rail route stretching from the port to the mainland. • The decision stems from research that “identifies no current or projected economic data that presents a compelling case for the port to pursue rail.” • The commission also noted that the port has competing priorities that must be addressed first, and that land use and bulkhead space presented concerns for the rail plan. Source: Florida Today, December 6, 2017 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

71


P A L M B AY – M E L B O U R N E – T I T U S V I L L E

Palm Bay - Melbourne - Titusville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

1

1.5

(percent)

24000.0

10.0%

22000.0

8.0%

20000.0

6.0%

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 FL Unemployment Rate Palm Bay Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

14000.0

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Real Personal Income 12.0%

(percent change year ago)

6.0%

220.0

3.0%

210.0

0.0%

200.0

-3.0%

72

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Real Gross Metro Product

9.0%

230.0

190.0

(Millions 2000 $)

16000.0

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Payroll Employment 240.0

3

18000.0

4.0% 2.0%

2.5

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Real Gross Metro Product

Florida & Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Unemployment Rate 12.0%

2

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Palm Bay Payroll Employment

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2017

-6.0%

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Real Personal Income


P A L M B AY – M E L B O U R N E – T I T U S V I L L E

Annual Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL December 2017 2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

21.0 0.5 9.4 11.6 19.7 -0.8 38.0 35.7 48.0 1.0

21.8 4.1 9.5 12.3 20.2 2.5 39.1 36.1 47.8 -0.5

23.0 5.4 10.1 12.9 21.2 5.1 40.4 37.3 49.4 3.4

24.1 4.6 10.7 13.4 22.0 3.5 41.5 37.9 50.5 2.2

25.0 4.0 11.2 13.9 22.5 2.3 42.5 38.2 51.2 1.2

26.4 5.5 11.8 14.6 23.3 3.9 44.3 39.2 52.8 3.3

28.5 7.7 12.6 15.8 24.7 5.7 47.2 40.9 55.1 4.3

30.5 7.2 13.4 17.1 25.9 5.0 50.0 42.5 57.4 4.2

32.4 6.2 14.2 18.2 26.9 3.9 52.5 43.6 59.8 4.3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 193.0 197.0 201.7 -0.3 2.0 2.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 20.1 20.1 21.0 Manufacturing -3.8 -0.3 4.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 172.9 176.9 180.8 Nonmanufacturing 0.1 2.3 2.2 Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining 9.1 9.9 11.1 8.8 8.3 12.4 Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities 35.0 35.7 36.1 0.1 2.0 1.2 Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade 5.5 5.5 5.1 Retail Trade 25.6 26.7 27.6 3.9 3.5 3.4 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information 2.1 2.4 2.3 -5.9 11.0 -3.9 Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities 7.5 7.3 7.2 -2.2 -2.6 -0.7 Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services 27.4 28.5 28.9 -2.7 3.7 1.7 Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services 32.8 33.2 33.8 0.1 1.0 2.0 Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality 23.0 24.0 25.5 1.1 4.4 6.4 Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services 7.5 7.9 7.9 1.6 6.3 0.0 Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government 6.2 6.1 6.2 -0.7 -1.3 1.3 Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government 22.3 22.0 21.6 0.7 -1.2 -1.8 Pct Chg Year Ago

209.2 3.7 22.4 6.6 186.9 3.4 12.4 11.7 36.6 1.5 5.0 28.1 3.4 2.2 -1.8 7.6 5.7 29.8 2.9 35.2 4.1 26.5 4.1 8.5 7.4 6.3 1.4 21.6 -0.2

215.5 3.0 23.4 4.7 192.1 2.8 14.0 12.3 37.3 1.8 5.1 28.6 3.6 2.3 3.0 7.8 1.7 30.8 3.3 36.1 2.6 27.0 1.7 8.8 3.0 6.4 1.2 21.8 0.8

221.5 2.8 23.6 1.0 197.8 3.0 15.2 8.5 37.5 0.5 5.2 28.2 3.6 2.3 -1.7 8.1 4.0 32.9 7.0 36.8 1.8 27.8 3.1 9.0 2.6 6.3 -1.3 22.0 1.1

226.3 2.2 23.9 1.3 202.3 2.3 16.2 7.2 37.6 0.4 5.4 28.0 3.7 2.3 1.1 8.3 3.2 35.6 8.0 37.1 0.7 27.8 0.0 9.1 0.6 6.1 -2.1 22.2 0.9

230.2 1.7 24.4 1.7 205.8 1.7 17.1 5.1 37.7 0.1 5.5 28.0 3.7 2.3 1.5 8.5 2.3 36.7 3.0 37.8 1.9 28.0 0.7 9.1 0.2 6.3 2.7 22.5 1.1

233.9 1.6 24.5 0.5 209.4 1.7 17.7 3.9 37.9 0.6 5.6 28.2 3.8 2.4 2.0 8.7 2.3 37.8 3.2 38.5 2.0 28.4 1.2 9.1 0.3 6.1 -3.8 22.8 1.4

580.3 1.9 262.0 2.3 5.2 2297.3 2100.9 196.0

588.6 1.4 270.2 3.2 4.5 2489.8 2224.5 265.0

595.7 1.2 275.1 1.8 4.5 3986.2 3283.2 703.0

602.7 1.2 281.7 2.4 4.5 4673.3 3726.7 947.0

610.1 1.2 289.0 2.6 4.4 4972.7 3925.4 1047.0

617.4 1.2 294.8 2.0 4.4 5244.6 4112.4 1132.0

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

552.2 0.7 258.6 -1.6 8.3 1351.5 1335.9 16.0

558.9 1.2 258.1 -0.2 7.0 1268.6 1230.3 38.0

569.4 1.9 256.1 -0.7 5.9 1881.6 1633.4 248.0

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

73


P A L M B AY – M E L B O U R N E – T I T U S V I L L E

Quarterly Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL December 2017 2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

2020Q1

2020Q2

2020Q3

2020Q4

2021Q1

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

25.3 3.7 11.3 14

25.8 4.3 11.6 14.2

26.2 4.9 11.8 14.4

26.6 5.7 11.9 14.7

27.1 7 12.1 15

27.7 7.4 12.3 15.3

28.2 7.7 12.5 15.7

28.7 8 12.7 16

29.2 7.8 12.9 16.3

29.8 7.6 13.1 16.7

30.3 7.5 13.3 17

30.8 7.1 13.5 17.3

31.2 6.9 13.7 17.6

31.7 6.6 13.9 17.9

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

22.6 2.2

22.9 2.9

23.2 3.4

23.5 4

23.8 5.2

24.2 5.4

24.5 5.7

24.9 5.9

25.2 5.6

25.5 5.3

25.8 5.2

26 4.8

26.3 4.5

26.6 4.3

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

42.9 38.3

43.4 38.7

44 39

44.6 39.3

45.3 39.8

46.1 40.3

46.8 40.7

47.6 41.2

48.3 41.5

49 41.9

49.7 42.3

50.4 42.6

51 42.9

51.6 43.2

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

51.5 1.8

52 2.6

52.6 2.9

53.1 3.4

53.6 4.1

54.2 4.2

54.8 4.3

55.4 4.3

55.9 4.3

56.5 4.3

57.1 4.1

57.7 4.1

58.3 4.2

58.9 4.2

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

217.2 2.1

219.3 2.8

221 2.7

222.1 2.7

223.4 2.9

224.8 2.5

225.9 2.2

226.7 2.1

227.7 1.9

228.4 1.6

230.1 1.9

230.8 1.8

231.5 1.7

232.3 1.7

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

23.5 2.4

23.6 1.2

23.6 1.6

23.7 0.7

23.7 0.7

23.8 0.9

23.9 0.9

24 1.4

24.2 2

24.2 2

24.3 1.9

24.4 1.7

24.4 1.2

24.4 0.8

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

193.7 2.1

195.8 3

197.3 2.8

198.5 2.9

199.7 3.1

201.1 2.7

202 2.4

202.7 2.1

203.5 1.9

204.1 1.5

205.8 1.9

206.4 1.8

207 1.7

207.9 1.8

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

14.8 14.1

14.9 13

15 9.7

15.2 7

15.5 4.9

15.9 6.7

16.1 7.3

16.4 7.5

16.6 7

16.8 6

17 5.4

17.2 4.9

17.3 4.3

17.5 4.1

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

37.4 2.1

37.4 0.6

37.4 0.6

37.5 0.5

37.5 0.3

37.6 0.5

37.6 0.5

37.6 0.4

37.6 0.1

37.6 0

37.6 -0.1

37.7 0.2

37.7 0.4

37.8 0.4

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

5.2 28.7 3.6

5.2 28.5 3.6

5.2 28.2 3.6

5.2 28.1 3.6

5.3 28 3.7

5.3 28.1 3.7

5.3 28.1 3.7

5.4 27.9 3.7

5.4 27.9 3.7

5.4 27.9 3.7

5.5 27.9 3.7

5.5 28 3.7

5.5 28 3.8

5.6 28 3.8

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.3 -0.4

2.2 -3.3

2.2 -2.2

2.3 -1

2.3 -0.5

2.3 1.5

2.3 1.6

2.3 0.7

2.3 0.7

2.3 1.2

2.3 1.5

2.3 1.7

2.3 1.7

2.3 1.8

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.8 -0.5

7.9 1.5

8.1 4.1

8.1 4.8

8.2 5.7

8.3 4.3

8.3 3

8.3 2.8

8.4 2.6

8.5 2.4

8.5 2.3

8.5 2.3

8.6 2.2

8.6 2.2

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

31.1 2.8

31.8 6

32.6 5.5

33.3 7.3

34 9.3

34.9 9.8

35.5 8.7

35.8 7.6

36.1 6.1

36.2 3.9

36.5 2.8

36.8 2.7

37.1 2.8

37.4 3.1

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

36.6 1.8

36.7 2.4

36.7 2.2

36.9 1.6

36.9 1.1

36.9 0.7

37 0.7

37.1 0.6

37.2 0.8

37.4 1.4

37.7 1.8

37.9 2.2

38.1 2.2

38.3 2.3

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

26.5 -2

27.5 1.7

27.8 2.1

27.9 3.4

27.9 5.3

27.9 1.3

27.8 -0.1

27.7 -0.7

27.8 -0.5

27.9 -0.1

28 0.5

28.1 1.1

28.2 1.4

28.2 1.2

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

8.9 2.8

9 3.4

9 3.5

9 2.1

9 1.4

9.1 1

9.1 0.7

9.1 0.5

9.1 0.3

9.1 0.3

9.1 0.2

9.1 0.2

9.1 0.3

9.1 0.3

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

6.4 0.7

6.4 0.6

6.3 -0.4

6.2 -2.1

6.2 -3.3

6.2 -3.2

6.2 -2.4

6.1 -1.5

6.1 -1.2

6 -3.6

6.8 10.6

6.4 4.6

6.1 -0.8

6.1 1.6

21.9 0.8

22 1.1

22 1.3

22 1.1

22.1 0.9

22.1 0.6

22.2 0.7

22.3 1

22.3 1.1

22.4 1.2

22.4 1.1

22.5 1

22.6 1

22.6 1.1

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

591.3 1.3

593.1 1.2

594.8 1.2

596.5 1.2

598.3 1.2

600 1.2

601.8 1.2

603.6 1.2

605.5 1.2

607.3 1.2

609.2 1.2

611 1.2

612.8 1.2

614.6 1.2

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

271.6 2.2

273 1.4

274.3 1.6

275.8 2.1

277.4 2.2

279.1 2.2

280.8 2.3

282.6 2.5

284.5 2.6

286.4 2.6

288.2 2.7

289.9 2.6

291.3 2.4

292.8 2.2

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

74

4.2

4.4

4.6

4.7

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

2611 2477 134

3454 2956 498

3922 3189 733

4243 3456 787

4325 3532 794

4465 3606 859

4669 3722 947

4747 3765 982

4812 3814 998

4881 3852 1029

4936 3905 1031

5029 3966 1063

5045 3978 1066

5144 4041 1103

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2017


P E N S AC O L A – F E R RY PA S S – B R E N T

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent MSA is comprised of Escambia County and Santa Rosa County. Located in the northwest corner of Florida bordering Alabama, the region is home to the Pensacola Naval Air Station, Blue Angels, and the National Museum of Naval Aviation. This area has been referred to as the “Cradle of Naval Aviation.”

The Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to see low levels of growth in the economic indicators, relative to the twelve other areas studied. Personal income growth is expected to average 5.6 percent each year, the lowest of the twelve studied MSAs. The real per capita income level is expected to average $39,200. The average annual wage growth rate should be 3.8 percent, while the average annual wage level is expected to be $50,300. Population growth will be at an average rate of 0.7 percent, the lowest of the studied MSAs. The Gross Metro Product is expected to average 16,104.58 million dollars. Employment growth is expected to average 1.2 percent each year, the second lowest of the MSAs. The unemployment rate will average 4.1 percent. The Construction and Mining sector will be the fastest growing sector in Pensacola, with a 4.3 percent average annual growth rate. The Professional and Business Services sector will follow with an average growth rate of 4.2 percent. The Federal Government; Trade, Transportation, and Utilities; and Information sectors will all decline, at rates of -1.2 percent, -0.4 percent, and -0.2 percent, respectively.

QUICK FACTS: •

Metro population estimate of 466,913 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

Escambia County population estimate of 305,817 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

Santa Rosa County population estimate of 161,096 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

A civilian labor force of 221,078 in October 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

An unemployment rate of 3.3% as of October 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 7,370 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database).

TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: •

Local Government – 13,857

Federal Government – 7,162

State Government – 5,253

Sacred Heart Health System – 5,000

Baptist Health Care – 3,163

Lakeview – 2,000

Ascend Performance Materials – 1,400

Gulf Power Company – 1,365

West Florida Regional Medical Center – 1,300

University of West Florida – 1,231

Navy Federal Credit Union – 1,200

Sources: Pensacola Chamber of Commerce, Agency for Workforece Innovation, Company web sites, Reference USA

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Frontier Airlines announces start dates for Pensacola flights • Frontier Airlines will be offering two new nonstop flights from the Pensacola International Airport to Denver International Airport and to Chicago O’Hare International Airport. • Flights to Denver will be available Tuesdays, Thursdays, and Sundays starting April 22, and flights to Chicago will be available Wednesdays and Saturdays starting on May 12. Tickets are already available for purchase. • Michael Pewther, senior director of onboard experience for Frontier Airlines, said, “We are excited to show our commitment to the Pensacola community with more low-cost flight options.” Source: Pensacola News Journal, October 17, 2017

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

75


P E N S AC O L A – F E R RY PA S S – B R E N T

Escambia County commissioners plan Triumph project for Tanyards, Warrington and Brownsville • Doug Underhill, chair of the Escambia County Board of County Commissioners, and Commissioner Lumon are creating a plan that veers away from the type of projects that many cities currently seek and focuses on some of the traditionally poor areas in Pensacola: Tanyards, Warrington, and Brownsville. • This project will be one of many applicants hoping to get funding through Triumph Gulf Coast, which includes settlement funds from the BP oil spill in 2010. Each of the eight counties under Triumph will get at least 5% of this year’s disbursement. • As to why counties should focus on the traditionally poor areas, Underhill said, “If you look at the ‘Strong Towns’ idea, you realize you get a lot more bang for your buck by focusing on areas that don’t typically get focused on.” Source: Pensacola News Journal, October 14, 2017 VT Mobile Aerospace Engineering holds career session at Pensacola State College • Bill Hafner, president of VT Mobile Aerospace Engineering, hopes to bring all 12 graduating students of the Aviation Airframe Mechanics program to the company at their new aviation maintenance hangar in Pensacola. • Construction of the hangar began in October, and it is expected to begin operating in May. VT MAE has pledged to hire 400 workers for the hangar. The first group of hired workers will be training in January. • Regarding how the VT MAE facility will impact the local economy, Mayor Ashton Hayward said, “As the mayor and as Ashton Hayward, I strongly feel that this is going to be a really huge win, now and in the future, for those kind of things to happen in Pensacola.” Source: Pensacola News Journal, October 27, 2017

76

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2017

City Council approves $1.6 million sale of Hawkshaw property to Robert Montgomery • The Hawkshaw property located in the downtown area has been approved by City Council to be sold to Robert Montgomery for $1.6 million, with the agreement defining 90 days as the time limit in which Montgomery must close on the property. • Montgomery plans to use the land to develop a $35 million condo and retail space. The first phase will be the construction of a three-story commercial and residential building. The second phase will only be residential space. • This government land has been bid upon previous times, but no bid was ever approved for a variety of reasons. Source: Pensacola News Journal, November 13, 2017 One Palafox Place breezeway in downtown Pensacola opens to public • Bobby Switzer, One Palafox Place LLC managing partner, has announced the opening of a new breezeway, which is located on the ground level of the Brent Building. • The breezeway will include mainly small eatery and restaurant tenants, with some already in operation, such as Bluejay’s Bakery and a showroom for The Armored Frog. • Later in the future, the west side of the breezeway will become a courtyard in which most of the spaces will open out to. Switzer stated, “This whole sort of courtyard will happen over the next two years. The courtyard will be the last piece put in, because it’s going to be the construction area for the apartments and the hotel.” Source: Pensacola News Journal, November 30, 2017


P E N S AC O L A – F E R RY PA S S – B R E N T Pensacola - Ferry Pass - Brent MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation,Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

Florida & Pensacola Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

0.4

0.6

0.8

Pensacola Real Gross Metro Product 17000.0

6.0%

14000.0

4.0%

13000.0

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 FL Unemployment Rate Pensacola Unemployment Rate

12000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

(Thousands)

8.0%

180.0

6.0%

175.0

4.0%

170.0

2.0%

165.0

0.0%

160.0

-2.0%

155.0

-4.0% 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Pensacola Payroll Employment

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Real Gross Metro Product

Pensacola Real Personal Income

Pensacola Payroll Employment

150.0

1.4

15000.0

8.0%

185.0

1.2

16000.0

10.0%

2.0%

1

-6.0%

(percent change year ago)

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Real Personal Income

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

77


P E N S AC O L A – F E R RY PA S S – B R E N T

Annual Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL December 2017 2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

17.1 0.1 7.4 9.7 16.0 -1.2 36.4 34.2 42.1 0.0

17.8 4.3 7.6 10.2 16.5 2.7 37.6 34.8 43.3 2.7

18.7 4.9 8.0 10.6 17.2 4.6 39.0 35.9 44.6 3.1

19.4 3.9 8.4 11.0 17.7 2.8 39.9 36.4 45.5 1.9

20.0 3.3 8.7 11.3 18.0 1.6 40.7 36.5 46.0 1.2

20.9 4.5 9.1 11.8 18.5 2.9 42.1 37.3 47.4 3.1

22.3 6.6 9.6 12.7 19.4 4.6 44.6 38.7 49.3 4.0

23.7 6.1 10.1 13.6 20.1 3.9 47.1 39.9 51.2 3.9

24.9 5.3 10.6 14.4 20.7 3.0 49.3 40.9 53.4 4.1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 159.9 162.9 167.1 1.1 1.8 2.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.9 6.0 6.1 Manufacturing 5.6 2.2 1.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 154.0 156.9 161.0 Nonmanufacturing 0.9 1.8 2.6 Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining 9.2 9.5 10.0 -2.5 3.6 4.5 Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities 30.4 31.1 31.7 1.2 2.2 2.0 Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade 4.9 5.0 5.1 Retail Trade 21.5 22.0 22.5 4.1 4.1 4.0 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information 2.3 2.3 2.2 -1.0 -2.5 -3.3 Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities 9.9 10.7 11.7 10.0 8.6 8.7 Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services 21.5 21.7 22.4 1.0 0.6 3.4 Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services 26.6 26.8 27.7 -1.3 0.6 3.3 Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality 20.3 20.9 21.6 5.0 3.2 2.9 Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services 5.7 6.0 5.8 -0.5 5.2 -3.5 Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government 6.6 6.5 6.5 -2.4 -2.2 0.5 Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government 21.4 21.4 21.5 -0.8 0.0 0.8 Pct Chg Year Ago

172.5 3.2 6.3 3.6 166.2 3.2 10.7 7.8 32.5 2.5 5.5 23.0 4.1 2.0 -7.2 12.4 6.0 22.4 -0.2 29.0 4.9 22.9 6.2 5.9 2.8 6.6 1.5 21.7 0.7

176.4 2.3 6.2 -1.3 170.2 2.4 11.3 5.4 33.3 2.5 5.7 23.6 4.1 1.9 -7.9 12.8 3.4 23.0 2.8 29.0 -0.1 24.1 5.2 6.0 0.9 6.7 0.8 22.1 2.1

179.3 1.7 6.2 -0.4 173.1 1.7 11.7 3.7 33.2 -0.3 5.7 23.1 4.1 1.8 -3.9 13.3 3.8 24.3 5.7 29.2 0.9 24.6 2.3 6.1 1.8 6.6 -1.5 22.3 0.5

181.7 1.3 6.2 0.6 175.4 1.3 12.5 6.1 33.1 -0.4 5.8 22.9 4.1 1.8 0.4 13.6 2.2 25.8 6.4 29.1 -0.4 24.8 0.6 6.1 0.1 6.4 -2.8 22.3 0.0

183.2 0.9 6.3 1.4 176.9 0.8 13.0 4.1 32.9 -0.7 5.9 22.7 4.1 1.8 1.1 13.8 1.5 26.4 2.2 29.3 0.7 24.9 0.4 6.1 -0.3 6.5 1.1 22.3 0.2

184.7 0.8 6.3 -0.2 178.4 0.8 13.4 3.1 32.8 -0.3 5.9 22.6 4.1 1.9 1.5 14.0 1.5 27.0 2.5 29.5 0.8 25.1 1.0 6.1 -0.2 6.2 -3.9 22.4 0.5

486.4 1.5 216.5 2.2 4.8 2931.0 2444.1 487.0

492.3 1.2 221.1 2.1 4.3 2431.4 2435.7 -4.0

496.7 0.9 222.6 0.7 4.3 2490.7 2251.7 239.0

500.2 0.7 225.5 1.3 4.1 2233.3 1915.9 317.0

503.2 0.6 229.0 1.5 4.0 2309.0 1961.4 348.0

505.9 0.5 231.5 1.1 4.0 2392.8 2029.4 363.0

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

78

468.8 1.2 212.0 -0.2 7.0 1984.2 1865.3 119.0

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2017

473.4 1.0 212.6 0.3 6.1 1834.7 1663.8 171.0

479.2 1.2 211.8 -0.3 5.3 2788.2 2029.2 759.0


P E N S AC O L A – F E R RY PA S S – B R E N T

Quarterly Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL December 2017 2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

2020Q1

2020Q2

2020Q3

2020Q4

2021Q1

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

20.2 3.2 8.8 11.4

20.5 3.3 8.9 11.6

20.8 3.9 9.1 11.7

21.1 4.8 9.2 11.9

21.4 5.9 9.3 12.1

21.8 6.4 9.4 12.4

22.1 6.6 9.6 12.6

22.5 6.8 9.7 12.8

22.8 6.6 9.8 13.1

23.2 6.4 9.9 13.3

23.5 6.3 10 13.5

23.9 6 10.1 13.7

24.2 5.8 10.2 13.9

24.5 5.6 10.4 14.1

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

18.1 1.8

18.2 1.9

18.4 2.3

18.6 3.2

18.8 4.1

19.1 4.4

19.3 4.6

19.5 4.8

19.6 4.5

19.8 4.2

20 4.1

20.2 3.7

20.3 3.5

20.5 3.3

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

40.9 36.5

41.4 36.8

41.9 37.1

42.4 37.4

43 37.8

43.7 38.2

44.3 38.5

45 38.9

45.5 39.2

46.2 39.5

46.8 39.8

47.4 40.1

47.9 40.3

48.5 40.6

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

46.3 1.9

46.8 2.5

47.2 2.8

47.6 3.2

48.1 3.9

48.6 3.9

49.1 4

49.6 4

50 3.9

50.5 3.9

51 3.8

51.5 3.9

52 4

52.6 4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

177.1 1.8

178.2 1.6

179.1 1.4

179.7 1.8

180.3 1.8

181.1 1.6

181.6 1.4

181.8 1.2

182.1 1

182.3 0.6

183.4 1

183.5 1

183.6 0.8

184 1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

6.2 -0.5

6.2 -0.6

6.2 -0.5

6.2 -0.2

6.2 -0.3

6.2 -0.1

6.2 0.1

6.2 0.8

6.3 1.6

6.3 1.9

6.3 1.7

6.3 1.3

6.3 0.7

6.3 0.2

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

170.9 1.9

172 1.7

172.9 1.5

173.5 1.9

174.1 1.9

175 1.7

175.4 1.4

175.5 1.2

175.9 1

176 0.6

177.1 1

177.2 0.9

177.3 0.8

177.7 1

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

11.6 5.1

11.6 3.1

11.7 2.6

11.8 5.6

12 3.6

12.2 5.5

12.4 6.2

12.5 6.5

12.7 6.1

12.8 5

12.9 4.4

13 3.9

13.1 3.3

13.2 3.2

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

33.3 1

33.3 -0.2

33.2 -0.5

33.2 -0.2

33.2 -0.4

33.2 -0.2

33.1 -0.2

33.1 -0.4

33 -0.6

32.9 -0.7

32.9 -0.9

32.8 -0.6

32.8 -0.4

32.8 -0.5

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

5.7 23.5 4.1

5.7 23.4 4.1

5.7 23.2 4.1

5.7 23 4.1

5.8 23 4.1

5.8 23 4.1

5.8 22.9 4.1

5.8 22.8 4.1

5.8 22.7 4.1

5.8 22.7 4.1

5.9 22.7 4.1

5.9 22.7 4.1

5.9 22.6 4.1

5.9 22.6 4.1

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.9 -6.1

1.8 -6.1

1.8 -5.4

1.8 -2.5

1.8 -1.7

1.8 0.8

1.8 1

1.8 -0.2

1.8 -0.1

1.8 0.7

1.8 1.1

1.8 1.4

1.8 1.4

1.9 1.5

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

12.8 0.8

13.1 2.1

13.3 3.2

13.4 4.5

13.4 5.4

13.5 3.5

13.6 2.1

13.6 1.8

13.7 1.7

13.7 1.6

13.8 1.5

13.8 1.5

13.9 1.4

13.9 1.4

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

23.2 4.6

23.6 4.5

24.1 5.1

24.5 5.8

24.9 7.2

25.4 7.7

25.8 6.8

26 6

26.1 4.9

26.2 2.9

26.3 1.9

26.5 1.9

26.6 2

26.8 2.3

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

29.2 1.6

29.2 2.2

29.2 1

29.2 0.6

29.2 0

29.1 -0.3

29.1 -0.4

29.1 -0.5

29.1 -0.3

29.2 0.2

29.3 0.6

29.4 0.9

29.4 1

29.5 1

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

23.9 1.2

24.4 1.3

24.6 1.7

24.7 2.4

24.8 3.6

24.9 1.8

24.8 0.8

24.7 0

24.7 -0.2

24.8 -0.3

24.8 0.1

24.9 0.7

25 1

25 0.9

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

6.1 2.6

6.1 2.6

6.1 2

6.1 1.6

6.1 0.9

6.1 0.5

6.1 0.2

6.1 0

6.1 -0.3

6.1 -0.3

6.1 -0.3

6.1 -0.4

6.1 -0.2

6.1 -0.3

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

6.7 1.4

6.7 0.9

6.6 -0.2

6.5 -2.8

6.5 -4

6.5 -3.6

6.4 -3

6.4 -2.3

6.3 -2.3

6.1 -5.7

7 8.6

6.6 3.1

6.2 -1.7

6.2 1.9

22.2 1.3

22.3 1.3

22.3 0.3

22.2 0.3

22.2 0.1

22.2 -0.2

22.2 -0.1

22.3 0.1

22.3 0.3

22.3 0.4

22.3 0.2

22.3 0.1

22.3 0.1

22.3 0.2

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

494.1 1.1

495.3 1

496.2 0.9

497.2 0.8

498.1 0.8

499.1 0.8

499.8 0.7

500.6 0.7

501.3 0.6

502.2 0.6

502.9 0.6

503.6 0.6

504.2 0.6

505 0.6

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

221.2 1.1

221.7 0.2

222.2 0.5

222.8 1

223.5 1.1

224.3 1.2

225.1 1.3

226 1.4

226.9 1.5

227.8 1.6

228.7 1.6

229.5 1.6

230 1.4

230.6 1.2

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

4

4.2

4.3

4.4

4.3

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.1

4

4

4

4

4

2293 2289 4

2521 2358 163

2552 2292 260

2518 2245 273

2372 2111 260

2268 1982 285

2193 1874 319

2224 1893 331

2249 1914 335

2281 1933 347

2296 1954 342

2330 1978 352

2329 1980 348

2357 2000 357

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

79


TA L L A H A S S E E

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Tallahassee MSA is comprised of Gadsden, Jefferson, Leon, and Wakulla Counties. It is located between Pensacola and Jacksonville. Tallahassee is the capital city of Florida and houses Florida State University and Florida A&M University.

The Tallahassee Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show low growth in the economic indicators relative to other metro areas forecasted in the state. The area should see personal income growth averaging 6.4 percent each year. Real per capita income levels should average $39,000. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 4.0 percent, and the average annual wage level will be $49,100. Population growth will average 1.2 percent, and the Gross Metro Product will average a level of 15,325.61 million dollars. Employment growth is expected to average 1.6 percent each year. The unemployment rate will average 3.8 percent. The Professional and Business Services sector will be the fastest growing sector in Tallahassee, averaging 5.1 percent annually. The Construction and Mining sector follows with an average growth rate of 4.9 percent. The Information sector is expected to decline, with an average annual growth rate of -2.4 percent.

QUICK FACTS: •

Metro population estimate of 373,255 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

Gadsden County population estimate of 46,194 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

Jefferson County population estimate of 14,194 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

Leon County population estimate of 281,845 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

Wakulla County population estimate of 31,022 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

Civilian labor force of 193,156 in October 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

An unemployment rate of 3.3% as of October 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 6,303 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database).

TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: • State of Florida – 22,612 • Florida State University – 12,512 • Leon County Schools – 4,550 • Publix Supermarkets – 3,439 • Tallahassee Memorial HealthCare, Inc. – 3,190 • City of Tallahassee – 2,736 • Leon County – 1,919 • Florida A&M University – 1,759 • Tallahassee Community College – 1,631 •

Capital Regional Medical Center – 1,151

Source: Tallahassee Chamber of Commerce

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Florida State receives record funding from NIH; MagLab scores big on new center • Florida State University received $35.8 million from the National Institutes of Health, which is over double the $12.7 million received for the 2013 federal fiscal year. • This grant will greatly help FSU’s efforts in health and biomedical research and its goal to become one of the top 25 public universities in the country. • The National High Magnetic Field Laboratory also announced they received a grant of $5.8 million from NIH. This money was awarded to create a National Institutes of Health Biomedical Technology Resource Center. • The resource center will allow MagLab scientists to “lead in the development of instrumentation for biomedical work in high magnetic fields to combat diseases like Alzheimer’s and tuberculosis.” Source: Tallahassee Democrat, October 4, 2017

80

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2017


TA L L A H A S S E E

Florida Power & Light building $3.9M Tallahassee office

methods of treatment and help states develop guidelines to assist teachers in classrooms.”

• Florida Power & Light Company is planning to build a three-story office building in downtown Tallahassee next to City Hall.

• The center has received an $8 million grant from the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development.

• The building, which could cost about $3.9 million, would include a first floor dedicated primarily to parking and storage. The second and third floors would offer office, conference, and meeting spaces.

• There are partners in the grant, which will be spread over five years. These include investigators at Haskins Laboratories, University of California at Irvine, University of California at San Francisco, University of Washington, Vanderbilt University, Purdue University, University of Oregon, Yale, and Southern Methodist University.

• About 10 Tallahassee-based FPL employees will be relocated from the leased office space downtown and given permanent workspaces, but there will also be five additional work stations for visiting FPL employees. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, October 19, 2017 FSU Sustainability Hub celebrates grand opening • On October 20th, Florida State University’s Sustainability Hub officially opened at the Seminole Organic Garden. • The Sustainability Hub is an outdoor learning facility that will serve to educate students about renewable energy sources and promote sustainable lifestyles. • Over the past 20 years, FSU has been working to be a more energy efficient campus, saving over $20 million to date. • Made possible by FSU Facilities and FSU alumni, the hub has been made self-sustaining with solar panels and provides over 20 garden beds for students, faculty, and staff to grow and harvest their own produce.

Source: Tallahassee Democrat, November 22, 2017 ‘Tiny house’ community welcomes first wave of residents • In an effort to follow the “tiny house” movement and provide more affordable housing in Tallahassee, Rick Kearney, a CEO involved in information technology and real estate, created a tiny house community called the Dwellings. • Each tiny house within the community costs $50,000 to build. Kearney plans to build 130 units spread across 30 acres. • It costs between $650 and $850 per month per house; this pricing includes utilities, water, and high speed internet. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, December 4, 2017

Source: Tallahassee Democrat, November 2, 2017 FSU researchers land $8-million NIH grant to study learning disabilities • Florida State University Professor and Associate Director of the Florida Center for Reading Research at FSU Richard Wagner is leading a team of researchers to “identify breakthroughs in early detection [of learning disabilities], develop

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

81


TA L L A H A S S E E

Tallahassee MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

Florida & Tallahassee Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

1

1.5

16000.0

8.0%

14500.0 14000.0

6.0%

13500.0

4.0%

13000.0

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 FL Unemployment Rate Tallahassee Unemployment Rate

12500.0

(Thousands)

8.0%

190.0

6.0%

185.0

4.0%

180.0

2.0%

175.0

0.0%

170.0

-2.0%

165.0

-4.0%

82

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Tallahassee Payroll Employment

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2017

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Real Gross Metro Product

Tallahassee Real Personal Income

Tallahassee Payroll Employment

160.0

(Millions 2000 $)

15500.0 15000.0

195.0

2.5

Tallahassee Real Gross Metro Product

10.0%

2.0%

2

-6.0%

(percent change year ago)

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Real Personal Income


TA L L A H A S S E E

Annual Outlook for Tallahassee, FL December 2017 2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

13.0 -1.7 6.9 6.1 12.2 -3.0 34.9 32.8 41.1 0.5

13.7 5.3 7.2 6.5 12.7 3.7 36.5 33.8 41.9 1.9

14.3 3.9 7.5 6.8 13.1 3.6 37.7 34.8 43.1 3.0

14.9 4.2 7.9 7.0 13.6 3.1 39.1 35.7 44.1 2.4

15.4 3.9 8.2 7.3 13.9 2.2 40.2 36.1 44.6 1.1

16.3 5.5 8.7 7.6 14.4 3.9 41.8 37.0 46.2 3.4

17.5 7.2 9.2 8.3 15.1 5.2 44.3 38.4 48.0 4.1

18.6 6.7 9.6 9.0 15.8 4.5 46.8 39.7 50.0 4.0

19.8 5.9 10.2 9.6 16.4 3.6 49.0 40.7 52.1 4.3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 167.3 171.5 172.7 0.7 2.5 0.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.1 2.9 3.1 Manufacturing -2.3 -4.4 4.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 164.3 168.5 169.6 Nonmanufacturing 0.7 2.6 0.6 Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining 6.2 6.3 6.7 5.4 1.7 7.0 Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities 22.7 23.7 24.2 2.5 4.0 2.2 Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade 3.2 3.4 3.6 Retail Trade 17.8 18.5 18.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information 3.4 3.9 3.5 3.8 12.9 -10.2 Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities 7.3 7.1 7.0 1.5 -2.7 -1.0 Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services 18.5 19.0 19.0 1.6 2.7 -0.2 Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services 19.7 20.6 21.1 -0.3 4.8 2.1 Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality 17.2 17.9 18.7 2.7 3.8 4.6 Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services 8.8 9.0 8.8 -3.9 2.2 -2.2 Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government 2.0 1.9 1.9 3.5 -2.5 0.8 Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government 58.4 59.2 58.7 -0.6 1.3 -0.9 Pct Chg Year Ago

177.5 2.8 3.1 2.6 174.4 2.8 7.5 10.6 24.5 1.1 3.7 18.7 2.1 3.2 -8.3 7.5 6.6 20.3 7.3 21.9 3.8 19.6 5.0 9.4 6.8 2.0 4.0 58.5 -0.3

182.4 2.8 3.1 -2.1 179.4 2.9 7.8 4.3 25.4 4.0 3.8 19.5 2.1 2.9 -10.2 7.6 2.2 21.1 3.9 22.3 2.1 20.3 3.4 10.3 8.8 2.1 5.6 59.5 1.7

187.0 2.5 3.1 1.3 183.9 2.5 8.2 5.9 25.8 1.3 3.9 19.5 2.2 2.8 -2.9 8.0 4.4 22.5 6.4 22.7 1.6 21.2 4.2 10.6 3.5 2.1 0.8 60.1 1.0

190.0 1.6 3.2 1.5 186.8 1.6 8.7 5.6 25.8 0.3 3.9 19.4 2.2 2.8 1.3 8.2 2.9 24.1 7.3 22.8 0.5 21.2 0.0 10.8 1.1 2.1 -2.0 60.4 0.5

192.3 1.2 3.2 2.1 189.0 1.2 9.0 3.8 25.9 0.0 4.0 19.4 2.2 2.9 2.4 8.3 1.8 24.8 2.9 23.1 1.5 21.3 0.7 10.8 0.7 2.2 5.2 60.6 0.4

194.5 1.1 3.3 0.7 191.2 1.1 9.3 3.1 25.9 0.4 4.0 19.5 2.3 3.0 2.7 8.5 1.9 25.6 3.1 23.5 1.5 21.5 1.0 10.9 0.6 2.1 -5.7 60.9 0.5

380.1 0.6 187.8 1.5 4.7 1244.3 824.9 419.0

384.3 1.1 193.5 3.0 4.1 1304.7 970.9 334.0

389.3 1.3 196.8 1.7 4.0 1919.4 1246.0 673.0

394.0 1.2 200.9 2.1 3.8 2108.4 1249.4 859.0

398.7 1.2 205.0 2.1 3.7 2242.8 1308.5 934.0

403.1 1.1 207.9 1.4 3.7 2371.6 1364.7 1007.0

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

373.8 -0.2 186.7 -0.6 6.4 1188.1 611.1 577.0

375.9 0.5 188.5 1.0 5.8 1189.6 635.5 554.0

378.0 0.6 185.0 -1.9 5.2 976.0 739.2 237.0

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

83


TA L L A H A S S E E

Quarterly Outlook for Tallahassee, FL December 2017 2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

2020Q1

2020Q2

2020Q3

2020Q4

2021Q1

15.6 3.9 8.3 7.3

15.9 4.9 8.5 7.4

16.1 4.9 8.6 7.5

16.4 5.6 8.7 7.7

16.7 6.8 8.9 7.8

17 7 9 8

17.3 7.2 9.1 8.2

17.6 7.5 9.2 8.4

17.9 7.2 9.3 8.6

18.2 7.1 9.5 8.8

18.5 6.9 9.6 8.9

18.8 6.6 9.7 9.1

19.1 6.4 9.8 9.2

19.4 6.2 10 9.4

14 2.4

14.2 3.4

14.3 3.4

14.5 3.9

14.7 5

14.9 5

15.1 5.2

15.2 5.4

15.4 5.1

15.6 4.8

15.8 4.6

15.9 4.3

16.1 4.1

16.2 3.9

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

40.5 36.2

41 36.5

41.5 36.8

42.1 37.1

42.7 37.5

43.4 37.9

44 38.3

44.7 38.6

45.3 38.9

45.9 39.3

46.5 39.6

47 39.8

47.6 40.1

48.2 40.4

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

45 2.1

45.5 2.9

45.9 3.1

46.4 3.5

46.9 4.1

47.3 4.1

47.8 4.1

48.3 4.1

48.8 4

49.2 4

49.7 3.9

50.2 4

50.8 4.1

51.3 4.2

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

183.9 2

185.6 3.2

186.7 2.3

187.5 2.2

188.3 2.4

189.1 1.9

189.8 1.7

190.3 1.5

190.9 1.4

191.4 1.2

192.1 1.2

192.6 1.2

193 1.1

193.6 1.2

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

3.1 -0.8

3.1 2

3.1 1.7

3.1 0.8

3.1 0.7

3.1 0.9

3.2 1

3.2 1.6

3.2 2.4

3.2 2.5

3.2 2.4

3.2 2.1

3.2 1.5

3.2 1.2

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

180.8 2

182.5 3.2

183.6 2.3

184.4 2.2

185.2 2.4

186 1.9

186.6 1.7

187.1 1.5

187.7 1.3

188.2 1.2

188.9 1.2

189.3 1.2

189.8 1.1

190.3 1.2

8.1 6.2

8.1 8.6

8.2 5.8

8.3 5.3

8.4 3.9

8.5 5.4

8.6 5.7

8.7 5.8

8.8 5.4

8.9 4.4

9 4

9.1 3.6

9.1 3.2

9.2 3.2

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

25.7 4.4

25.7 3

25.7 1.2

25.8 0.6

25.8 0.3

25.9 0.5

25.9 0.5

25.8 0.3

25.8 0

25.8 -0.1

25.8 -0.2

25.9 0.1

25.9 0.3

25.9 0.2

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.8 19.8 2.1

3.8 19.6 2.1

3.8 19.5 2.2

3.9 19.4 2.2

3.9 19.4 2.2

3.9 19.5 2.2

3.9 19.4 2.2

3.9 19.4 2.2

3.9 19.3 2.2

4 19.4 2.2

4 19.4 2.2

4 19.4 2.2

4 19.4 2.2

4 19.4 2.3

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.8 -8.1

2.8 -4.8

2.7 -3.3

2.8 -2.3

2.8 -1.3

2.8 1.7

2.8 2.1

2.8 0.7

2.8 0.8

2.9 1.8

2.9 2.4

2.9 2.8

2.9 2.6

2.9 2.7

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.7 0.8

7.8 3.9

7.9 4.1

8 4.3

8.1 5.2

8.1 4.1

8.2 2.9

8.2 2.5

8.2 2.2

8.3 1.9

8.3 1.8

8.4 1.9

8.4 1.8

8.4 1.8

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

21.4 1.8

21.8 4.8

22.3 6

22.7 6.6

23.2 8.3

23.7 8.8

24.1 7.9

24.3 7

24.5 5.8

24.6 3.7

24.7 2.6

24.9 2.6

25.1 2.6

25.3 3

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

22.5 1.6

22.6 2.2

22.6 1.7

22.7 1.4

22.7 0.9

22.7 0.6

22.8 0.6

22.8 0.4

22.9 0.6

23 1.1

23.1 1.4

23.2 1.8

23.3 1.8

23.4 1.8

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

20.1 0.8

20.9 4.2

21.2 3.2

21.3 3.7

21.3 5.9

21.2 1.5

21.2 -0.2

21.1 -0.8

21.1 -0.6

21.2 -0.1

21.3 0.5

21.3 1.1

21.4 1.2

21.4 1.1

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

10.5 4.6

10.6 4.5

10.6 4.2

10.7 3.1

10.7 2.2

10.7 1.5

10.7 1.2

10.8 1

10.8 0.8

10.8 0.8

10.8 0.7

10.8 0.7

10.9 0.8

10.9 0.7

2.2 3.9

2.2 5

2.2 3

2.1 -1.3

2.1 -3.3

2.1 -4.2

2.1 -2.6

2.1 -0.9

2.1 -0.1

2.1 0.4

2.4 13.8

2.2 6.5

2.1 0

2.1 -1

59.9 1.2

60 2.2

60 0.6

60.1 0.6

60.1 0.4

60.2 0.3

60.3 0.4

60.4 0.6

60.5 0.7

60.6 0.7

60.6 0.5

60.6 0.3

60.7 0.3

60.8 0.3

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

386.2 1.3

387.5 1.3

388.7 1.3

389.9 1.3

391 1.2

392.3 1.2

393.5 1.2

394.6 1.2

395.8 1.2

397 1.2

398.2 1.2

399.3 1.2

400.4 1.2

401.5 1.1

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

194.6 2.3

195.5 1.7

196.3 1.5

197.3 1.9

198.3 1.9

199.3 2

200.3 2

201.4 2.1

202.5 2.1

203.6 2.2

204.6 2.2

205.5 2.1

206.2 1.9

206.9 1.6

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

84

3.9

4

4.1

4.1

3.9

3.8

3.8

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.7

1290 1042 247

1690 1177 514

1931 1241 690

2022 1286 736

2035 1281 754

2051 1253 798

2097 1238 859

2126 1242 884

2160 1265 895

2200 1284 916

2223 1302 921

2273 1326 947

2275 1322 953

2333 1349 984

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2017


TA M PA – S T. P E T E R S B U R G – C L E A R WAT E R

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater MSA is comprised of Hernando, Hillsborough, Pasco, and Pinellas counties. Located centrally on the west coast of Florida, this region includes Tarpon Springs, Sponge Docks, Ybor City, Bush Gardens, the University of South Florida and the University of Tampa. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Tampa Bay Rays call this region home.

The Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show relatively high growth in the economic indicators relative to the other MSAs studied. Personal income growth is expected to be 6.6 percent on average each year, and the real per capita income level will average $43,700. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.9 percent. The average annual wage level will be $58,000. Population growth will average 1.4 percent, and Tampa is forecasted to have the second highest average Gross Metro Product in the studied areas, averaging a level of 140,590.48 million dollars. Employment growth is expected to average 2.5 percent annually. The unemployment rate is expected to average 4.0 percent. The fastest growing sector in the Tampa area will be the Professional and Business Services sector with an average annual growth rate of 6.5 percent. This is followed by the Construction and Mining sector with an average annual growth rate of 5.3 percent, and the Financial sector at 3.5 percent. The Federal Government sector will decline at a rate of -0.7 percent.

QUICK FACTS:

• • • • • • •

Metro population estimate of 2,870,569 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). Hernando County population estimate of 174,441 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). Hillsborough County population estimate of 1,291,578 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). Pasco County population estimate of 475,502 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). Pinellas County population estimate of 929,048 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). Civilian labor force of 1,516,130 in October 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database). Unemployment rate of 3.3% as of October 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 49,878 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database).

TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• • • • • • • • • •

Hillsborough County School board – 29,603 MacDill Air Force Base – 15,485 Pinellas County School District – 13,905 Hillsborough County Government – 9,328 Pasco County School District – 9,289 Verizon Communications, Inc. – 9,065 University of South Florida – 8,353 Tampa International Airport – 8,060 Tampa General Hospital – 6,900 Publix Food Centers – 5,823

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES One of the best places for investing in a rental house is in Tampa Bay • Several Tampa ZIP codes have proven to be some of the hottest housing rental markets in the country. • Among the nation’s top ten average rates of return, the Spring Hill area of Hernando County can produce an $11,005 yearly net cash flow on a house bought for $135,000. • Another area, Tampa’s Carrollwood Village, is making national noise, ranking 45th among all markets for average time to sell and web traffic on realtor.com. Source: Tampa Bay Times, October 19, 2017

Sources: Pasco County School District, Pinellas County School District, 2011 Comprehensive Annual Financial Report: Tampa Port Authority

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

85


TA M PA – S T. P E T E R S B U R G – C L E A R WAT E R

Prime site near downtown Tampa is county’s pick for new Rays stadium • Hillsborough County officials have identified a downtown Tampa site as its top pick for the location of a new Tampa Bay Rays stadium. • The site lies between East Fourth Avenue and Adamo Drive, and County Commissioner Ken Hagan is excited about the possibilities. He believes the location will “catalyze significant economic development.” • Another major decision is where the money for the $600 million project will come from. Proposed options include hotel bed taxes and Community Redevelopment Area funds, which are collected through rising property values. Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, October 24, 2017 MetLife plans to add 430 high-wage jobs in Tampa • The Tampa Hillsborough Economic Development Corporation announced that MetLife is expanding its Tampa operations with an addition of 430 jobs at its Tampa campus. • The campus currently employs more than 1,500 people, and the new jobs will pay at least $74,000 per year. This number is 50 percent higher than Hillsborough County’s average wage of $49,707. • As a result, the company will see a $258,000 tax break from the County Commission, as well as a matching tax refund from the city of Tampa. Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, November 3, 2017 Tampa Bay residents have second-lowest amount of disposable income • While Florida as a whole boasts the best numbers for disposable income throughout the Southeastern United States, Tampa residents are among earners with the fewest discretionary spending dollars in the state. • These findings by California’s Trove Technologies are explained by Tampa’s non-housing expenses, which outweigh those of every other Florida city, and an average salary that lags behind that of every other major hub in the state. 86

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2017

• However, this may be more a mark of the rest of Florida’s success than it is a sign of Tampa failing. Of the largest 63 cities in the country, Tampa ranks 29th in disposable income. Source: Tampa Bay Times, November 14, 2017 Vinik announces plans for innovation hub, $20M venture capital fund in downtown Tampa • Strategic Property Partners, Jeff Vinik’s real estate development company, is in the process of designing an innovation hub that will occupy a massive area on the second floor of the Channelside Bay Plaza. • The space could bring hundreds of people together to collaborate on entrepreneurial and venture capital projects. • The project is viewed as an extension of Vinik’s “The Rise of the Rest” campaign, which seeks to support and fund startups outside of common hotspots like Silicon Valley and New York City. Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, December 5, 2017 St. Petersburg chamber of commerce charts ‘Grow Smarter’ economic development strategy • St. Petersburg business leaders are working on a solution to keep business growing while making sure St. Petersburg retains its culture and keeps everyone involved. • The chamber of commerce’s six areas of focus are targeted job creation, awareness building, entrepreneurial growth, coordinated education and training, culture and community, and district and corridor development. • The chamber has voiced an intention to pursue job creation in more “artsy” industries, setting it apart from many cities. Source: Tampa Bay Times, December 8, 2017


TA M PA – S T. P E T E R S B U R G – C L E A R WAT E R

Tampa - St. Petersburg - Clearwater Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

Florida & Tampa Unemployment Rate (percent)

12.0%

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.2

1.4

Tampa Real Gross Metro Product 150000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

140000.0

10.0%

130000.0

8.0%

120000.0

6.0%

110000.0

4.0% 2.0%

1

100000.0

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 FL Unemployment Rate Tampa Unemployment Rate

90000.0

Tampa Real Personal Income

Tampa Payroll Employment 1500.0

(Thousands)

1400.0 1300.0 1200.0 1100.0 1000.0

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Tampa Payroll Employment

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Real Gross Metro Product

8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

(percent change year ago)

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Real Personal Income

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

87


TA M PA – S T. P E T E R S B U R G – C L E A R WAT E R

Annual Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL December 2017 2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

114.0 0.1 57.3 56.8 107.2 -1.2 39.6 37.2 48.2 0.7

120.6 5.8 60.2 60.5 111.6 4.1 41.3 38.2 49.3 2.3

128.0 6.1 64.2 63.7 118.0 5.7 43.0 39.6 50.8 3.2

134.3 5.0 68.3 66.1 122.6 3.9 44.2 40.3 52.2 2.6

139.5 3.8 71.0 68.5 125.2 2.2 45.0 40.4 52.9 1.5

147.3 5.6 75.6 71.7 130.3 4.0 46.8 41.4 54.6 3.2

158.7 7.8 80.9 77.8 137.7 5.7 49.8 43.2 56.8 4.0

169.8 6.9 85.8 83.9 144.1 4.7 52.5 44.6 59.1 4.0

180.0 6.0 91.0 88.9 149.4 3.7 55.0 45.7 61.6 4.2

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 1176.4 1208.4 1250.7 2.4 2.7 3.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 60.0 61.2 62.2 Manufacturing 1.0 1.9 1.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1116.4 1147.2 1188.5 Nonmanufacturing 2.5 2.8 3.6 Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining 56.9 60.8 64.9 5.0 6.9 6.8 Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities 222.9 232.0 240.0 1.8 4.1 3.5 Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade 48.9 50.4 51.2 Retail Trade 146.7 152.8 159.2 27.3 28.7 29.6 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information 26.1 25.6 25.8 1.4 -2.1 1.0 Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities 99.7 101.7 103.9 4.3 2.1 2.1 Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services 198.2 204.3 217.8 3.8 3.1 6.6 Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services 184.6 188.4 194.6 1.3 2.0 3.3 Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality 133.3 138.4 144.6 3.9 3.8 4.5 Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services 42.4 43.4 43.4 3.3 2.2 0.0 Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government 22.7 22.9 23.6 0.4 0.8 3.1 Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government 129.6 129.8 129.8 -0.1 0.2 0.0 Pct Chg Year Ago

1297.2 3.7 64.6 3.8 1232.6 3.7 70.8 9.0 248.2 3.4 51.9 165.9 30.4 25.5 -1.1 107.2 3.1 231.5 6.3 200.1 2.8 149.0 3.0 45.1 3.9 24.3 3.1 131.2 1.1

1329.8 2.5 64.9 0.5 1264.8 2.6 78.0 10.2 250.8 1.0 52.9 167.0 30.7 26.0 1.9 108.1 0.9 242.2 4.6 204.6 2.3 150.6 1.1 48.1 6.8 24.7 1.8 131.7 0.4

1371.9 3.2 64.9 -0.1 1307.1 3.3 81.9 5.1 252.3 0.6 53.5 165.1 31.4 25.2 -2.9 114.0 5.5 262.2 8.3 207.6 1.4 156.2 3.7 50.1 4.1 24.6 -0.4 132.8 0.8

1412.3 2.9 65.6 1.2 1346.7 3.0 87.5 6.8 253.6 0.5 54.4 164.5 31.7 25.6 1.6 117.8 3.3 288.6 10.0 208.6 0.5 156.2 0.0 50.6 1.1 24.1 -1.9 133.9 0.9

1439.7 1.9 66.9 1.9 1372.8 1.9 92.1 5.2 253.9 0.1 55.2 164.6 31.7 26.3 2.7 120.8 2.5 299.3 3.7 211.6 1.4 157.5 0.8 51.0 0.6 25.1 3.9 135.2 1.0

1465.5 1.8 67.1 0.3 1398.4 1.9 95.9 4.2 254.8 0.4 55.8 165.6 31.8 27.1 3.0 123.9 2.6 310.6 3.8 214.7 1.4 159.3 1.2 51.2 0.4 23.9 -4.5 136.8 1.2

3039.5 2.0 1475.7 2.5 4.6 17156.3 11016.8 6140.0

3096.7 1.9 1517.3 2.8 4.1 18122.9 13257.0 4866.0

3146.1 1.6 1532.2 1.0 4.1 21397.5 14809.9 6588.0

3189.9 1.4 1551.4 1.3 4.0 20729.3 14388.5 6341.0

3231.6 1.3 1571.1 1.3 3.9 21696.6 14864.0 6833.0

3271.6 1.2 1585.8 0.9 3.8 23003.2 15523.8 7479.0

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

88

2878.7 1.0 1420.9 0.7 6.9 11569.4 7251.6 4318.0

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2017

2923.4 1.6 1434.3 0.9 6.0 11721.7 7112.4 4609.0

2979.1 1.9 1439.7 0.4 5.2 14813.0 9753.7 5059.0


TA M PA – S T. P E T E R S B U R G – C L E A R WAT E R

Quarterly Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL December 2017 2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

2020Q1

2020Q2

2020Q3

2020Q4

2021Q1

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

141 3.5 71.9 69.1

143.6 4.2 73.5 70.1

145.9 5 75 70.9

148.4 5.9 76.3 72.2

151.4 7.3 77.7 73.7

154.5 7.6 79.1 75.4

157.3 7.8 80.4 76.9

160.3 8 81.6 78.7

162.9 7.6 82.8 80.2

165.8 7.3 83.9 81.9

168.5 7.1 85.2 83.3

171.1 6.8 86.5 84.6

173.6 6.5 87.7 85.9

176.3 6.3 89 87.3

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

126 2.1

127.8 2.8

129.3 3.5

130.9 4.2

132.9 5.5

135 5.6

136.8 5.8

138.6 5.9

140.2 5.5

141.9 5.1

143.4 4.9

144.9 4.5

146.2 4.2

147.6 4

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

45.2 40.4

45.9 40.8

46.5 41.2

47.1 41.5

47.9 42

48.7 42.5

49.4 42.9

50.2 43.4

50.8 43.7

51.5 44.1

52.2 44.5

52.9 44.8

53.5 45

54.1 45.3

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

53.3 2

53.8 2.7

54.3 2.8

54.9 3.3

55.4 4

56 4

56.5 4

57.1 4.1

57.7 4

58.3 4.1

58.8 4

59.4 4

60 4.1

60.7 4.1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

1337.2 1.7

1353.8 2.5

1367.5 3.1

1377.5 3.3

1388.9 3.9

1400.8 3.5

1409.4 3.1

1416.1 2.8

1423 2.5

1428.3 2

1437.6 2

1443.6 1.9

1449.2 1.8

1455.3 1.9

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

64.7 -0.5

64.7 -1

64.9 -0.1

64.9 0.4

64.9 0.2

65.1 0.6

65.4 0.7

65.8 1.3

66.2 2.1

66.6 2.3

66.8 2.1

67 1.8

67.1 1.3

67.1 0.7

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

1272.5 1.8

1289.1 2.6

1302.5 3.2

1312.6 3.4

1324 4

1335.7 3.6

1344 3.2

1350.3 2.9

1356.7 2.5

1361.7 1.9

1370.9 2

1376.6 1.9

1382.1 1.9

1388.2 1.9

80.2 8.6

80.7 5.1

81.3 4.4

82.2 6.4

83.7 4.3

85.4 5.9

86.9 6.9

88.2 7.4

89.5 7

90.7 6.1

91.7 5.5

92.5 4.9

93.4 4.4

94.4 4.2

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

251.8 0.8

251.9 0.3

252 1

252.4 0.8

253 0.5

253.5 0.6

253.6 0.6

253.6 0.5

253.5 0.2

253.8 0.1

253.6 0

254 0.1

254.3 0.3

254.3 0.2

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

53.3 167.4 31.2

53.2 166.3 31.3

53.3 165.2 31.4

53.6 164.4 31.5

54 164.5 31.5

54.2 164.9 31.6

54.4 164.8 31.7

54.5 164.3 31.7

54.6 164 31.7

54.9 164.4 31.7

55.2 164.4 31.7

55.4 164.8 31.7

55.6 164.9 31.8

55.7 165 31.8

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

25.9 2.5

25 -3.5

24.9 -4.2

25.4 -2.5

25.6 -1.4

25.5 2

25.5 2.5

25.6 1

25.9 1.1

26.1 2.2

26.2 2.7

26.4 3

26.6 2.9

26.9 2.9

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

107.7 -0.7

111.3 2.7

113.9 5.1

115 6.6

116 7.7

116.7 4.9

117.4 3.1

118.2 2.8

119 2.6

119.8 2.6

120.4 2.5

121.1 2.5

122 2.5

122.8 2.5

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

245.7 3.7

251.4 6.8

259.2 7.2

265.5 7.9

272.9 11.1

281.7 12.1

287.4 10.9

291.2 9.7

293.9 7.7

295.2 4.8

297.5 3.5

300.9 3.3

303.7 3.3

306.3 3.8

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

206.5 1.6

207 1.5

207.3 2.1

207.8 1.3

208.1 0.8

208.1 0.5

208.4 0.5

208.7 0.4

209.5 0.6

210.2 1

211.1 1.3

212.2 1.7

213 1.7

213.9 1.7

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

148.4 -1.3

154.5 2.3

156.4 3.2

156.9 3.7

157 5.7

156.7 1.4

156.2 -0.1

155.9 -0.7

156.1 -0.5

156.6 0

157.2 0.6

157.8 1.2

158.4 1.4

158.5 1.2

49.3 7.4

49.8 6.4

50 4.9

50.2 3

50.4 2.1

50.5 1.4

50.6 1.2

50.7 1

50.7 0.7

50.9 0.7

50.9 0.6

51 0.5

51 0.6

51.1 0.5

25 2

25 2

24.7 0.7

24.4 -1.4

24.3 -3

24.2 -3.3

24.2 -2.2

24.1 -1.1

24.1 -0.8

23.8 -1.9

27.2 12.5

25.4 5.4

24 -0.4

23.9 0.6

131.9 0.1

132.5 0.2

132.8 1.1

132.9 1.2

133.1 0.9

133.3 0.6

133.7 0.7

134.1 1

134.5 1.1

134.8 1.1

135 1

135.3 0.9

135.7 0.9

136.1 0.9

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

3116.6 1.8

3129 1.7

3140.5 1.6

3151.9 1.5

3163.1 1.5

3173.9 1.4

3184.7 1.4

3195.3 1.4

3205.9 1.4

3216.3 1.3

3226.6 1.3

3236.8 1.3

3246.9 1.3

3256.8 1.3

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1522.3 2

1526.2 1

1529.7 0.9

1533.9 1

1539 1.1

1544.2 1.2

1548.7 1.2

1553.9 1.3

1558.9 1.3

1564 1.3

1569.2 1.3

1573.7 1.3

1577.4 1.2

1580.9 1.1

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

3.9

4

4.1

4.2

4.1

4

4

4

4

4

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.9

18180 13733 4448

21045 14731 6314

21938 14802 7136

21720 15022 6698

20887 14685 6202

20535 14401 6133

20655 14318 6337

20784 14359 6425

20943 14476 6468

21248 14593 6654

21506 14786 6720

21964 15013 6951

22069 15063 7005

22546 15278 7268

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

89


I N D U S T R Y L O C AT I O N Q U OT I E N T

E X P L A N AT ION AND INTE RP RE TATIO N This technique compares the local economy to a reference economy; in this case, the local economy is the chosen MSA, and the reference economy is the state of Florida. An Industry Location Quotient (LQ) is calculated to determine if the local economy has a greater share of each industry’s employment than the reference economy. The LQ helps to identify specializations that exist in the local economy. There are only three possible outcomes: 1. An LQ greater than one 2. An LQ equal to one and 3. An LQ less than one. An LQ that is greater than one means that the share of local employment in that particular industry is greater than the reference economy employment share in that same industry. This implies that some of the goods or services produced by that industry are exported for consumption elsewhere. An LQ of one means that local demand is met by the local industry. No goods/services are imported or exported from the local area in that industry. The share of local employment in that industry is equal to the share for that industry in the reference economy. An LQ less than one implies that the industry is not meeting local demand for that good or service, and in order to meet demand, that area must import that good or service. This also means that the share of local employment in that industry is less than the share of employment in that industry for the reference economy.

CALC U LATIO N An industry location quotient is a calculated ratio of two ratios. LQ = ((Local employment in industry A in year T / Total local employment in year T) / (Reference economy employment in industry A in year T) / (Total reference employment in year T)) For example: Orlando MSA employment for Information is 27,400 Total Orlando MSA nonagricultural employment is 1,104,100 Florida employment for Information is 169,800 Total Florida nonagricultural employment is 8,247,000 LQ = ((27,400 / 1,104,100) / (169,800 / 8,247,000)) = 1.2039

Source: Florida Regional Economic Database, Current Employment Statistics, December 2006

90

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2017


Sean Snaith, Ph.D., is the director of the University of Central Florida’s Institute for Economic Competitiveness and a nationally recognized economist in the field of business and economic forecasting. Snaith is the recipient of multiple awards for the accuracy of his forecasts, his research and his teaching. He has served as a consultant for local governments and multinational corporations such as Compaq, Dell and IBM. Before joining UCF’s College of Business, he held teaching positions at Pennsylvania State University, American University in Cairo, the University of North Dakota and the University of the Pacific. Snaith is frequently interviewed in international, national and regional media. He has been quoted in The Wall Street Journal, USA Today, The New York Times, The Economist and The Guardian and has appeared on CNBC, Fox Business Network, The Nightly News with Brian Williams, Al Jazeera, the BBC and CBC, China Central TV, Sky News, Nippon TV and the Business News Network, based in Toronto. Snaith is a sought-after speaker known for his engaging and humorous presentations. He has built a national reputation for his unique ability to explain complex subject matter in a digestible manner. He earned praise from one business editor for having “an uncanny knack of making economics not only understandable but interesting.” Snaith is a member of several economic organizations and national economic forecasting panels, including The Wall Street Journal’s Economic Forecasting Survey, the Associated Press’ Economy Survey, CNNMoney.com’s Survey of Leading Economists, USA Today’s Survey of Top Economists, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s Survey of Professional Forecasters, Bloomberg and Reuters. Snaith holds a B.S. in Economics from Allegheny College and an M.A. and Ph.D. in Economics from Pennsylvania State University.

Sean M. Snaith, PhD Director, Institute for Economic Competitiveness P 407.823.1451 E ssnaith@ucf.edu


UNIVERSIT Y OF CENTR AL FLORIDA INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC COMPETITIVENESS P. O . B OX 1 6 1 4 0 0 ORL ANDO, FLORIDA 32816 P H 4 0 7. 8 2 3 . 1 4 5 3 • F X 4 0 7. 8 2 3 . 1 4 5 4

W W W. I E C . U C F. E D U

Florida Metro Economic Forecast December 2017  
Florida Metro Economic Forecast December 2017  

Florida Metro Economic Forecast December 2017 from the Institute for Economic Competitiveness at UCF