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Florida & Metro Forecast 2015-2018

Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

Published September 2015


ABOUT UNIVERSITY OF CENTRAL FLORIDA (UCF)

ABOUT THE COLLEGE OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION


Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

F LO R I DA F O R E C A S T 2015 - 2018 September 2015 Report

Published quarterly by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, College of Business Administration, University of Central Florida Copyright Š 2015 Institute for Economic Competitiveness. All rights reserved.

Publications of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness are made possible by the following staff: Dr. Sean Snaith, Director Angela Ayala, Administrative Assistant Trevi Sellers, Researcher Diana Merchant, Researcher Leigh Durden, Researcher Mariah Coughlin, Researcher This forecast was prepared based upon assumptions reflecting the Institute for Economic Competitiveness’ judgments as of the date it bears. Actual results could vary materially from the forecast. Neither the Institute for Economic Competitiveness nor the University of Central Florida shall be held responsible as a consequence of any such variance. Unless approved by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, the publication or distribution of this forecast and the preparation, publication or distribution of any excerpts from this forecast are prohibited.


TABLE OF CONTENTS Florida Highlights and Summary........................ 5-12 Florida Forecast Tables...................................... 13-18

TA B L E O F C O N T E N T S

Florida Forecast Charts...................................... 19-27 Florida News Summaries....................................... 28 Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach.......... 30-34 Gainesville......................................................... 35-39 Jacksonville....................................................... 40-44 Lakeland............................................................ 45-49 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach.......... 50-54 Naples-Marco Island......................................... 55-59 Ocala................................................................. 60-64 Orlando-Kissimmee.......................................... 65-69 Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville......................... 70-74 Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent.............................. 75-79 Tallahassee........................................................ 80-84 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater.................... 85-89 Industry Location Quotient..................................... 90


F lo r i d a H i g hli g hts

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE SEPTEMBER 2015 FLORIDA FOR ECAST 2015 -201 8 • Florida’s economy is performing like the boy band One Direction, but will the hits keep coming?

• The housing market continues to recover. A shrinking pool of foreclosures is bidding up prices in the distressed market. The July 2015 year-over-year median sales price appreciation for foreclosures is 13.6% and traditional median sales prices are up 0.5%. Overall, median prices are up 8.1% in July year over year. • During 2015-2018 it is expected that Florida’s economy, as measured by Real Gross State Product, will expand at an average annual rate of 3.0%, and payroll job creation will average an annual pace of 2.2%. Both growth rates are stronger than our forecasted pace for the national economy.

• Payroll job growth in Florida is robust and outpacing national job growth. Year-overyear growth should average 3.2% in 2015, 2.2% in 2016, 2.0% in 2017, and 1.5% in 2018. Payrolls finally recovered to their prerecession highs this May. • Labor force growth in Florida will average 1.7% from 2015-2018. The faster pace of payroll job creation has reinvigorated Florida’s labor market. The improved prospects of finding a job will put more Floridians back on the hunt for employment.

• The growing labor force will make the arithmetic of lowering the state’s unemployment rate more challenging. The pace of the decline will slow as the labor force grows. As a result of this headwind, the unemployment rate should fall to 5.2% in 2016 and stay there through 2018.

• The sectors expected to have the strongest average job growth during 2015-2018 are Construction (6.7%), Professional and Business Services (3.6%), Trade, Transportation & Utilities (3.6%), Education & Health Services (2.7%) and Leisure & Hospitality (2.5%). • Housing starts flattened out during 2013 and 2014. The pace of starts will increase going forward, but probably not fast enough to meet single family demand in the next several years. Total starts will be over 100,000 in 2015, over 125,000 in 2016, hit 144,000 in 2017, and level off at 151,900 in 2018. • Real Gross State Product (RGSP) will expand 3.3% in 2015; growth will be 3.1% in 2016 and 2.9% in 2017, before easing to 2.8% in 2018. Average growth will be 3.0% during 2015-2018, 0.5 percentage points faster than our forecast for average U.S. GDP growth over the same period.

• Over 2015-2018, real personal income growth will decelerate and average 3.9%, with 5.0% growth in 2015, easing to 3.5% growth in 2018. This growth will exceed the national rate by 0.8 percentage points.

• Retail sales will grow at an average pace of over 4.7% during 2015-2018, bolstered by a strong recovery in labor markets, lower gasoline prices, and rising home values.

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D A D DY P A L O O Z A : U P D A T E In the June 2013 U.S. Forecast publication, I wrote about “Daddypalooza,” the name I gave to the string of concerts and shows that I have taken my daughters to over the past fourteen years. It is a music festival of sorts that has taken place over many years rather than a few days and geographically spread across the country rather than in a single locale. The ideation of taking in all of these shows back-to-back over the course of a few days at a single locale in true music festival format is profoundly disturbing. Writing about Daddypalooza again has dredged up these intrusive thoughts and I am struggling to keep them away while I complete this section of the forecast.

This mental struggle evokes thoughts of Woodstock, perhaps the most famous of all music festivals. During the festival, stage announcements were made by fabled radio DJ Wavy Gravy warning festival-goers about taking a brown acid (LSD) that was circulating among the crowd and causing people to have nightmarish hallucinations and to generally freak-out, an experience referred to as a “bad trip.”

I have never used LSD, but I can’t imagine that a bad trip could be any more nightmarish than the thought of having to watch back-to-back performances by Ernie and Burt, Dora the Explorer, The Wiggles, Barney, Justin Bieber, circus performers, Taylor Swift, Ice Capades, Cody Simpson, Veggie Tales… Hey, man, I think you get my drift, that’s some heavy stuff to contemplate – a real bummer. I am writing this section not because I wanted to take that bad trip, but to update the line-up for Daddypalooza to include the latest act to be added to this nightmarish list: the boy band One Direction.

This didn’t come as a surprise; back in 2013 I wrote of my fear that One Direction was likely the next to be added to this line-up, and in October 2014 this fear was realized. On the third of that month I found myself standing in line, sweating, outside of Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida waiting for the gates (of hell?) to open and let my daughters and me (sporting a One Direction baseball cap) and tens of thousands of others into the venue for the concert. I looked anxiously around as the screams went up from this mob of mostly teen- and tween-aged girls as the gates were opened to let us all into the stadium. My thoughts and heart were racing and my mind flashed back to my twelve-yearold self, recalling how I heard the tragic news about eleven concert-goers who had been trampled to death at The Who 6

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2015

concert in Cincinnati. I wondered what my obituary would read if I were to suffer the same fate as those unfortunate people and whispered a prayer for my safe entry to the concert.

I didn’t pray for the safety of my daughters because I knew they, like the thousands of other young ladies there that evening, were singularly focused on getting into the stadium to see One Direction. Nothing was going to stop that from happening, including the presence of a middle-aged economist lying prone on the ground outside that gate, grunting with every pair of Sketchers that rained down upon his flabby body.

That prayer was answered and I survived the entry to the stadium despite being hip checked out of the way on multiple occasions and with more force than I would have thought a 4’4” 60 pound 7th grade girl could muster. Perhaps it was the additional mass afforded to her by her mouthful of braces?

As we entered the stadium and made our way out to the field, where our third-row seats awaited us, we made several stops, gathering food and souvenirs along the way. I harkened back to 2009 when I watched the Pittsburgh Steelers win their sixth Super Bowl on that very field (from seats that were less expensive and much further from the action than those we would occupy this evening) and I tried to hold onto those memories to help get me through the evening. We passed several ushers as we made our way toward the stage and each and every one of these women made a comment to me or my daughters about what a good dad I was. I didn’t think this was much of a sacrifice on my part, but in hindsight I realized they knew more than I did about what was yet to come.

After settling into our seats, we munched on the hotdogs and chips we had purchased and awaited the start of the concert’s opening act, 5 Seconds of Summer. I hadn’t heard of the band, but admired their selfawareness of choosing a name that would reflect the duration of their popularity. When the opening act began to play, it didn’t take me five seconds to realize I was in for a long night. The band took the stage as the audience jumped to its collective feet. The music boomed out from the wall of speakers just 10 yards away and the shock wave hit my body with almost as much force as the 7th grade girl with braces. The music was blaring and the sound washed over my body as if it were being sprayed from a firehose. I widened my stance and braced for the rest of the evening.


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The performance of 5 Seconds of Summer’s set felt like it lasted five full summers and my ears were still ringing when One Direction took the stage. The stadium venue helped ease the pain of the screams that went up as the band made their entrance. I recalled the stabbing inner ear pain that I felt at the Justin Bieber arena concert and experienced a fleeting moment of gratitude before the headline band began to play. The concert was basically a blur to me; I had some familiarity with a few of the songs that had been repeatedly played in my car in the years leading up to the concert but was unable to join in the sing-along that took place with each song. The relentless assault of that wall of speakers continued unabated for the longest hour and a half since my last root canal, before the band exited the stage prior to its encore.

Once they left, huge banks of lights facing the audience were turned on, illuminating the crowd who had been watching the show from the field level. My ears were still ringing as I turned around to get a glimpse of the crowd. What I witnessed was a strange, slow motion hybrid of every battlefield scene from every war movie I had ever watched and old newsreels from the mid-1960’s musical British Invasion. My eyes moved from face to face of the young women and girls surrounding me, some with tears streaming down their faces, mouths opened in primal screams, jumping up and down shouting: “I love you, Harry!” (or Liam or Niall or Zayn…). Many were holding elaborate signs, some illuminated, declaring their emotional ties or marriage proposals for the various members of the boy band.

Scattered amongst, and rising above, those swooning fans I saw other faces through the slow-to-dissipate veil of pyrotechnic smoke. These faces bore a stark contrast to those in sea around them. Their mouths were not open, instead their lips were tightly pursed, their faces blank and their eyes watery, unfocused, and lifeless.

I was looking into the faces of other fathers who had accompanied their daughters to the concert that night. I was initially moved to pity by the sight, until I realized these faces were but a mirror, and a reflection of my own. Shocked by the awareness of my plight, I felt a wave of panic pass through my body. Would any of us fathers ever be the same? I recalled the words of praise that the ushers (more like oracles) offered to me as we found our seats that evening. Right at that moment, my eyes met those of another father eight rows behind me. No words were spoken and he, almost unperceivably, nodded his head at me. That slight movement of his head said all that needed to be communicated: “The ushers got it right.” It has been nearly a year since that evening in Tampa and I had been largely able to keep the memory of the concert out of my conscious mind. But memory is a funny thing; it

can be triggered by a word, a sound, even a smell. At a recent conference somebody asked me in what direction Florida’s economy was heading and I responded, “It is heading in one direction, up!” It was that innocuous question and my cheeky answer that triggered the onslaught of memories from that evening in October 2014 at the One Direction concert.

I had inadvertently used the name of a boy band to describe the outlook for Florida’s economy. Maybe it was apropos since several of the most famous boy bands can trace their origins to Florida including the Backstreet Boys and N’Sync, but perhaps the parallels go beyond this.

One Direction was formed in 2010 with five members, each of who were failed solo contestants on the British talent show The X Factor. Florida’s economy today rose from the rubble of the housing market and Great Recession, and so, like the boy band, our economy’s current success was born out of a dire beginning. The band’s first four albums debuted at number one in the U.S. Billboard 200, the first band in history to do so, and unleashed a string of platinum-selling singles. These album sales, sellout concert tours, and several successful films have generated millions of dollars for the members of the band.

Florida’s economy has indeed been heading in one direction since 2012: up. The economic recovery has produced billions of dollars of real GDP and personal income for the state. As of late, the monthly jobs reports are like hit songs released each month in Tallahassee. Strong gains in payroll employment across nearly all sectors of Florida’s economy are music to the ears of those interested, though I haven’t heard of any posters containing marriage proposals to Governor Scott appearing at the press conferences when these strong jobs reports are released.

Boy bands do not typically grow into man bands and most share a similar fate; it usually begins with the erroneous calculus that the sum of the individual parts exceeds that of the whole. One Direction does not appear to be an exception to this rule. Member Zayn Malik left the band in March of this year and the remaining members announced a “temporary hiatus” beginning in March of 2016 so the band could pursue solo careers.

Does a similar fate await Florida’s economic boy band? There have been a number of potentially ominous developments in the national and global economic environments that threaten the string of hits our economy has been producing. Canada, the largest source of international tourists for Florida, spent the first half of 2015 in a recession. The Canadian Dollar has depreciated by 20% against the U.S. dollar over the past year, effectively raising the prices of hotel Institute for Economic Competitiveness

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F lo r i d a S umma r y Figure 1.

rooms, restaurant menu items, and souvenirs by 20% for Canadian visitors. Brazil’s economy is in the worst recession in 25 years and their Real GDP has been in a four-year decline, losing more than 60% of its value over the past year alone.

China is an increasing concern to the global economy, as its economic growth appears to have taken a significant downshift and its stock market has plunged in value despite increasingly heavyhanded attempts by Beijing to prop it up. Here at home the lackluster economic recovery plods on, and the stock market has entered into correction territory as markets fret the timing of the Federal Reserve’s move to end nearly seven years of a zero interest rate policy.

Florida

Single-Family, Existing Homes 30,000

25,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

0

Source: Florida Realtors

FLORIDA’S HOUSING MARKET The July 2015 single-family home report released by Florida Realtors continues to depict a housing market that is improving at a faster pace in 2015. The median sales price for single-family homes increased $14,900 in July 2015, year over year, and now stands at $199,900, a year-over-year price appreciation of 8.1%. Price appreciation in the townhome/ condominium market was a little faster at 9.1% as the median sales price increased $12,500 year over year, registering at $150,000 in July of this year. Inventories of single-family homes in July are down from a year ago and are now just 4.5 months, which according to the Florida Realtors report indicates an inventory balance in the single-family market increasingly favoring sellers1.

Inventories of condominiums declined from 5.7 months’ supply back in July of 2014 to 5.3 months’ this July. This indicates that the condo market has gone from being tipped in favor of buyers to a market that is tipped in favor of sellers. Distressed sales of single-family homes in the form of short sales are continuing to contract year over year (-39.3%), as are foreclosure/REO sales versus July 2014 (-9.2%), while

1 According to the Florida Realtors, the benchmark for a balanced market (favoring neither buyer nor seller) is 5.5 months of inventory. Numbers above that indicate a buyers’ market, numbers below a sellers’ market. Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2015

Moving Average

20,000

Maybe One Direction will resume their success after their hiatus, and perhaps Florida’s economy will weather this brewing economic storm and continue the strong recovery that we have enjoyed the past several years. We can hope so, but I still plan on holding onto my One Direction baseball cap from the concert… it may be well on its way to becoming a collector’s item.

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Realtor Sales

traditional sales are up 22.9% year over year versus July 2014.

Distressed sales of condos in the form of short sales are still rapidly contracting year over year (-39.3%), and foreclosure/ REO sales are down as well versus July 2014 (-9.2%), while traditional sales were up 22.9% in July 2015 compared to July 2014.

The percentage of closed sales of single-family homes that were cash transactions stood at 32.8% in July 2015. For condos that figure is much higher as 59.1% of all closings were cash transactions. Both of these markets’ shares of cash transactions have fallen year over year, which points to a somewhat diminishing role of investors in Florida’s housing market. Figure 1 depicts the monthly realtor sales of existing singlefamily homes, as well as the 12-month moving average of these sales—a less volatile curve smoothing out the seasonality and noise in housing market monthly data. Sales continue on an upward path and both the 12-month moving average and monthly data have now exceeded their peak values during the housing bubble. The fundamental underpinnings of the housing market in Florida continue to strengthen. Job growth in Florida continues to outperform the U.S. labor market and with more Baby Boomers reaching the end of their working years, population growth via the in-migration of retirees to Florida should continue to grow. The population of Florida is also growing organically as birth rates have surpassed death rates. Lastly, international immigration will also feed into this population growth. Given the strengthening of the economic foundations of the housing market, we expect that this upward trend in sales will continue. Figure 2 displays median sales prices for single-family existing homes. Median sales prices have continued to climb since bottoming out in 2011. The double-digit pace of price


F lo r i d a S umma r y Figure 2.

Florida

Single-Family, Existing Homes $300,000

$250,000

Median Sales Price Moving Average

$200,000

$150,000

$100,000

$50,000

$0

Source: Florida Realtors

increases gave way to single-digit increases in 2014, but the first half of 2015 brought double-digit price appreciation back for a limited engagement. Over the past year, the 12-month moving average of median sales prices has risen by $13,099, up 7.5% from a year ago. Low inventories of existing homes for sale and housing starts that stalled during 2013 and 2014 will continue to support an environment where home prices could rise at an elevated pace. Some may be tempted to call this a bubble, but it is a temporary shortage that will be rectified as the pace of single-family housing starts ramp up over the next several years with starts expected to increase by more than 78% from 2014 levels by 2018. Many homeowners are still well below the levels of home equity wealth they held at the peak of the housing market (median prices are currently $57,900 below the 2006 peak of $257,800), but rising prices have allowed some homeowners to escape after years of being trapped in mortgages that were underwater.

Despite this progress, there is still a high percentage of Floridians underwater in their mortgages. RealtyTrac’s 2nd quarter 2015 U.S. Home Equity & Underwater Report puts the percentage of Floridians underwater in their mortgages at 23.6%.

OUTLOOK FOR FLORIDA 2015-2018 GROSS STATE P R O D U C T Real Gross State Product (RGSP) growth in Florida is still expected to grow at a faster pace than we are forecasting for the U.S. economy over the next four years. In 2012, Florida finally fully emerged from the recession,

with RGSP expanding at a 1.7% pace. In 2013 the economy accelerated to 2.5% as rising consumer confidence, the housing market recovery, population growth, and progress in the labor market set the stage for even faster economic growth.

These improved fundamentals of the state’s economy will accelerate growth in 2015, when RGSP is expected to expand at 3.3%, the fastest growth rate in the recovery thus far. In 2016 through 2018, however, growth is going to decelerate slowly as a more restrictive monetary policy puts the brakes on the national economy. Growth in that three-year stretch is expected to be 3.1%, 2.9%, and 2.8%, respectively. During 2015-2018, Florida’s RGSP is expected to grow an average of 3.0% annually.

This average growth of 3.0% through 2018 is an improvement on the average growth of the previous four years (when growth averaged just 1.6%). Average growth of 3.0% may seem modest when compared to the 6.7% average growth during 2005, but the forecasted growth through 2018 is underpinned by growth in the fundamental drivers of the state’s economy and a sustainable fiscal situation in state and local government, not rampant speculation in the housing market. It is also a half of a percentage point higher than the average of our forecasted real GDP growth for the U.S. economy over that time frame (2.5%).

Housing prices have made substantial progress from the depths to which they plunged during the housing crisis. During the crisis, median existing home prices fell to a low of $122,200, but now stand at $199,900. This price appreciation is repairing damage done to household balance sheets in Florida, but it will take many more years to recover all the wealth that was lost in the housing market collapse in June of 2006, when housing prices plummeted from the median-price high of $257,800.

Rising house prices in Florida are lifting more mortgage holders in the state above the surface of the water for the first time in several years, providing some financial breathing room. Despite this progress, RealtyTrac estimates that as of Q2 2015, 23.6% of mortgaged homes in Florida have negative equity, where owners owe more in mortgage debt than the market value of the house. Nominal Gross State Product (NGSP) continues to make progress toward the $1 trillion mark, surpassing $964 billion in 2017. In 2018, Florida will finally break that $1 trillion mark with NGSP of $1.011 trillion.

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were more of a catalyst, instead of an increasing drag on the economy, the outlook for Florida’s economy would be even brighter (see the August 2015 U.S. Forecast for a discussion of regulation’s impact on aggregate economic growth). As it stands, Florida’s robust economic growth is happening despite the sputtering and historically weak national economic recovery.

P ERSONA L IN CO M E , R E TA I L SAL ES , AN D AU TO SA L E S Personal income growth in Florida in 2014 recovered from a deceleration to 2.4% in 2013, as a number of factors conspired to lower growth, including special dividend payments made in 2012, ahead of the 2013 increase in dividend tax rates. Momentum is expected to build through the end of 2018.

In 2014, personal income growth in Florida surged to 4.6%. That growth will accelerate in 2015 as personal income growth comes in at 5.2%. From that point it will decelerate to 4.9% in 2016, and then jump to 5.7% in 2017, before easing slightly to 5.6% in 2018. After six years of personal income growth that was slower than the national rate, Florida pulled in front of the nation in 2013 as personal income growth in Florida grew 2.4%, while the national rate of growth was 2.0%. Florida is expected to continue to outpace the nation with personal income growth averaging 0.9 percentage points higher than the national average growth for 2015-2018. Personal income growth during 2015-2018 will average 5.4% in Florida. Personal income will reach in excess of $1.05 trillion in 2018, marking an increase in personal income in excess of $348 billion from its low point in 2009.

In 2015, real disposable income growth will average 4.4%, up from the previous year’s 2.9% growth rate. Average growth during 2015-2018 will remain a robust 3.9%, with growth peaking in 2015, then averaging 3.7% the following three years.

Financial markets have prospered after touching the bottom of the financial crisis, thanks in large part to the Federal Reserve Bank’s zero interest rate policy that was bolstered by three subsequently larger rounds of quantitative easing. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell to 6,600 in March of 2009, but then surged to exceed 18,000 in the first half of 2015. This six-year bull-run appears to have come to an end as the Fed contemplates the commencement of interest rate hikes later in 2015 or, increasingly likely, in 2016. The anticipated hike in interest rates, coupled with global economic uncertainty and financial market volatility at home and abroad, have sent stock prices into reverse. At one point the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell nearly 3,000 points and, as of this writing, is down more than 8% for the year. 10

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2015

As a result of this record run, as of the 2nd quarter of 2015, financial assets held by U.S. households have values that are $27.5 trillion 2 higher than the 2009 nadir of the financial crisis levels, and $19.9 trillion higher than pre-recession peaks. Home equity wealth held by America’s households has also made a strong recovery, but has not fully recovered to peak levels seen during the housing boom. That wealth is only $0.4 trillion lower than those 2005 highs, but home equity wealth has made great progress since the bottom of the housing crisis. U.S. households now hold $7.2 trillion more in home equity wealth than they held at the 2009 1st quarter low-point of the housing market. The 3rd quarter Flow of Funds report should reflect the decline in the stock market, and the value of financial assets held by U.S. households will have declined from the levels cited above.

Home equity in Florida has not recovered as rapidly nor as completely as financial markets have. But housing prices have been rising over the past four and a half years, with acceleration in the pace of price appreciation thus far in 2015; significant gains in home equity have been made. However, for many households in Florida, the effects of the lost home equity wealth will continue to weigh upon consumer spending through the end of 2018. Many of Florida’s mortgage holders are still underwater, leaving the state with the second highest percentage (18.5% as of Q2 2015) of underwater mortgages in the nation. With the labor market in Florida continuing to show robust job creation, this will help lift both consumer confidence and spending. The significant decline in oil and gasoline prices (now below $2.00 in many parts of the state) have further boosted confidence and have served to support retail sales outside of gasoline. With more money staying in consumers’ pockets that previously went into the tank, households will be able to increase spending on other goods and services.

After contracting at an average rate of 6.9% in 2008-2009, retail sales growth soared to average 6.9% in 2010-2011. In 2012, the pace of growth eased to 2.7% before bouncing back in 2013 and 2014 to average 4.3%. After a similar deceleration in 2015, retail sales growth will once again head higher. With Florida’s robust labor market recovery maintaining its momentum and more home equity recouped, retail spending will begin to accelerate in 2016 and 2017 with growth averaging 5.3% during those two years. The average yearover-year growth rate of retail sales will be nearly 4.7% during 2015-2018.

Consumers began to purchase vehicles again after the Great Recession’s end and have continued to do so through 2014, 2 Data taken from the September 2015 Flow of Funds report balance sheet tables: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/Current/z1r-5.pdf


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and thus far in 2015 as well. This sustained growth has been enabled by the availability of easy automobile financing for even sub-prime borrowers. Automobile loans are one type of lending that, does not seem to have been adversely impacted by regulatory changes foisted on the financial sector.

Vehicle registration growth in Florida exhibited that pentup demand grew during 2010-2014, when registrations grew at a year-over-year average rate in excess of 11.8%. This burst of pent-up demand followed three years during which new passenger car and truck registrations contracted at an average rate of 19.6%.

The exhaustion of pent-up demand purchases points toward more modest growth in vehicle registration in Florida during 2015-2018, despite increased incentives and plentiful financing. Over this period, vehicle registration growth in Florida is expected to average 3.3%.

In 2018, Florida’s new passenger car and truck registrations will reach more than 1.39 million, representing an increase of over 685,000 registrations from the 2009 nadir.

EMPLOY ME N T Florida’s labor market recovery continues to outpace the recovery of the national job market as it has over the past four years. In 2012, payroll job growth in Florida came in at 2.0% compared to the national rate of 1.7%. In 2013, year-over-year average annual payroll job growth was 2.5%, a much stronger figure compared to the national rate of job creation of 1.7% for the same year. In 2014, the labor market recovery in Florida accelerated further and the gap between job growth in the Sunshine State at 3.2% and the national rate of just 1.9% grew wider. Payroll job growth remains robust at 3.1% in 2015 but will ease thereafter to 2.2% in 2016, to 2.0% in 2017, and to 1.5% in 2018. Although job growth is expected to lose momentum through 2018, Florida will outpace national job growth over the entire forecast horizon by an average of 0.7 percentage points during 2015-2018. The Construction sector has endured dramatic changes, having gone from the worst-performing sector for job growth in Florida, at one point contracting for four straight years (2007-2010) at an average rate of -15.1%, to the bestperforming sector with the fastest job growth in the state. It will hold this number one position through the end of our 2018 forecast horizon.

This sector was devastated by the bursting of the housing bubble and endured job losses for five straight years (20072011) at an average pace of -12.9%. In 2009 alone, the sector suffered year-over-year job loss at the staggering rate of -23.1%. Total jobs lost in the sector were just under 347,000.

Job growth finally turned positive in 2012 and built momentum from that point with job growth peaking at 8.5% in 2014 and remaining strong through the end of 2018.

Construction job growth is expected to decelerate from 2014 rates, but will remain robust. Job growth is expected to slow to 6.8% in 2015, as housing starts growth took a pause in 2014. The resumption in the growth in housing starts will cause job growth to accelerate to 7.2% in 2016 and 7.6% in 2017, before easing to 5.1% in 2018. Average annual job growth during 2015-2018 will be 6.7%. Employment will average 513,700 in 2018: a level that represents 168,400 fewer jobs than the 2006 peak for payroll employment in the construction sector. The Professional and Business Services sector will be tied for the second-fastest growing sector in the state on average through 2018. Job growth in this sector is expected to be strong, averaging 3.6% during 2015-2018. Job growth in this sector during the past three years averaged 4.0%, but growth will moderate over the next four years. Job growth will be 3.4% in 2015, before rising to 3.6% in 2016. Growth in this sector advances to 4.7% in 2017 before easing to 2.7% in 2018, as overall job growth in the U.S. and Florida decelerates under a tighter stance of monetary policy. This sector includes primarily white-collar businesses, from computer design, to advertising, to scientific research, to law firms and travel agencies, but also includes the very blue-collar waste management industry. The Professional & Business Services sector recovered from the recession very quickly and was the first industrial sector in Florida to recover all the payroll jobs lost during the recession, getting back to prerecession employment levels in 2014. The Information sector in Florida added jobs in 2013 for the first time since 2005 in 2013 when it experienced mild year-over-year job growth of 0.4%, which briefly accelerated to 1.5% in 2014 before it is expected to fall back into reverse in 2015 and 2016. Information is a mix of high-tech sectors, which have stronger growth paths, and legacy media, which continues to be buffeted by structural change. This industrial sector is still bearing the brunt of changes in how information is gathered and disseminated. Sources of growth within this sector, such as software development, data processing and hosting, wireless telecommunications, and content creation will offset the ongoing loss of jobs in traditional media.

Tepid annual job growth of 0.4% returned to the Information sector in 2013, following on the heels of seven straight years of job losses. After 1.5% growth in 2014, growth will then slip to -0.1% in 2015 and slip further to -0.7% in 2016. From that point, growth continues to be erratic through 2018. Average growth of 0.6% is expected during 2015-2018.

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11


F lo r i d a S umma r y

The Education and Health Services sector in Florida, inoculated from the recession by the state’s population structure skewed toward older residents, coupled with the passage Affordable Care Act, has kept demand for health services growing through the recession, and with it, employment in the sector. The Education and Health Services sector added jobs throughout the recession (average job growth from 2007 to 2011 was 2.0%) and continues to do so today. This was the only sector of Florida’s economy to grow in the recession and is expected to continue to grow through the end of 2018 and well beyond. During 2015-2018, employment in this sector is expected to expand at an average rate of 2.7%. The Affordable Care Act’s impact on healthcare in the face of implementation of law’s employer mandates in 2015 and 2016 continues to cast a pall of uncertainty over this sector in Florida. Healthcare providers in Florida can only feel their way along, slowly moving through the uncertainty still surrounding the law five years after its passage.

The projected numbers of previously uninsured people who would acquire health insurance as a result of the law have not been as high as the administration had predicted, but the number of insured has increased as a result. This expansion of coverage, coupled with the aging of our already older-thanaverage population (that is continuing to grow with the influx on a daily basis of new Baby Boomer retirees), ensures that the demand for health services in Florida should remain strong well into the future. This demand will continue to drive job growth in the Health and Education sector through the end of 2018 and well beyond. Manufacturing employment expanded in Florida at an average rate of 2.5% in 2014, accelerating from 1.6% growth in 2013. However, as 2014 wound down, economic growth eased as both the domestic and global economic environments weakened significantly and the U.S. dollar began an ongoing period of strengthening. The weakening of economic expansions abroad, including a slowdown in China, struggles in Europe, and a significant recession in Brazil were coupled by a rapid appreciation of the U.S. dollar. Exports have suffered from the combination of slower income growth abroad and higher prices of American goods and services for foreigners whose currencies depreciated against our own. These developments will weigh heavily on the rate of job growth in the manufacturing sector beyond 2014. After gaining some momentum in 2014, manufacturing employment growth in Florida is expected to relinquish that momentum over the forecast horizon. We are looking at job growth of just 1.3% in manufacturing for 2015, followed by another year of similar job growth in 2016, when manufacturing employment will expand at a rate of 1.4%. Manufacturing job creation is expected to continue to remain 12

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2015

paltry in 2017 and 2018 when growth will be 0.9% and 0.7%, respectively. Average annual job growth during 2015-2018 will be 1.1%.

The State & Local Government sector in Florida is experiencing improved revenue streams as sales tax revenue rises and, as housing prices continue to climb, property tax revenue rises as well. The budgetary crisis in Florida impacted governments at all levels in Florida and governments were forced to make cuts to employment through large-scale layoffs, as transpired in Tallahassee, or through attrition in local governments. Forced austerity led to job losses in this sector that persisted for six years through 2014. In 2015, job losses in the State and Local Government sector will end, but growth this year will be just slightly positive. Growth will remain positive going forward, averaging 0.9% during 2015-2018. As Florida’s population and economy continue to grow, the demand for state and local government services will grow, and employment growth in state and local government will be a necessary part of the solution to meet the demands of Florida’s growing economy. The memory of painful budget shortfalls in the wake of the housing bubble and recession will dampen job growth in the sector.

The outlook for Federal Government employment growth in Florida, on the other hand, continues to be negative, with the exception of a brief uptick in 2015 through the end of our 2018 forecast horizon. Any solution to our federal deficit and debt problems will require more revenue, but ultimately cuts in discretionary federal spending will be needed as entitlement programs swell, consuming a growing share of revenue. As the Federal Reserve embarks on a cycle of interest rate hikes at the end of 2015 or increasing likely in 2016, the burden of servicing a national debt that is in excess of $18.3 trillion will consume a larger share of federal tax revenue. The pain of running four years of trillion-dollar deficits that has for years been dulled by the historically low interest rates will increase along with interest rates by the Fed. This increasing share of federal tax revenue going toward entitlements and debt service will cause the already smaller portion of federal tax revenue that goes toward discretionary spending to get even smaller. It will be 2020 before the decennial census drives the next expansion in Federal Government employment in Florida. Employment in this sector will contract at an average rate of -0.3% during 2015-2018.

UNEM P LOYM ENT The unemployment rate in Florida has fallen significantly from its peak, standing at 5.3% as of August 2015. After spending many years well above the national rate


F lo r i d a S umma r y

of unemployment, Florida’s April unemployment rate remains just 0.2 percentage points higher than the national unemployment rate for August.

Florida’s labor force participation in August 2015 stood at 58.4%, down from 63.9% a year earlier. The national labor force participation rate stood at 62.6% in August 2015, down from 62.9% in August 2014. This is the lowest level for the national labor force participation rate since October 1977, and is down 3.4 percentage points from the start of the recession. The labor force participation rate is the percentage of the population age 16 and older that is included in the labor force. Retirees, who are older than sixteen but who no longer participate in the labor force, push down the labor force participation rate, and with a relatively higher share of the population in Florida who are retired, the state’s participation rate will consequently be lower than the national rate. Over the past year Florida’s population over the age of sixteen grew by 263,000, while its labor force contracted by 87,000. Retirement of Baby Boomers to Florida will continue to put downward pressure on the labor force participation rate in the state.

The 5.3% unemployment rate in Florida, as of August 2015, represents a 6.1 percentage point decline from the peak levels of the unemployment rate in 2010.

We are forecasting stronger economic growth in Florida over the next several years as well as continued strength in the growth of payroll jobs. This faster economic growth, however, will be met by the headwind of a growing labor force, making additional progress in reducing the unemployment rate a more challenging task. We expect the labor force to grow more rapidly during 2015-2018, at an average rate of 1.7%, with 2015 growth of just 0.8%, then averaging 2.0% thereafter, as job seekers encouraged by the robust job growth in the state are motivated to enter or reenter the labor force. This will result in slower declines in unemployment rates and the possibility of an occasional increase in the unemployment rate in Florida on a month-to-month basis.

that they want and are available for a job, and have looked for work sometime in the past 12 months)—remain elevated. When adding these workers and discouraged workers, those workers who are currently not working but did not look for a job in the four weeks preceding the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly survey of households, to the headline unemployment figure, we get the broadest measure of unemployment estimated by the BLS known as U-6. As the employer mandates of the Affordable Care Act are enforced in 2015 (for “large” companies with 100 or more full-time equivalent employees) and 2016 (for “midsize” companies with 50-99 employees), the potential for rising levels of underemployment will grow. Employers’ and workers’ responses to the full/part-time distinction and the disincentives to full-time work in the law will necessitate ongoing scrutiny of U-6 at the national and state level. Specifically, analysis of how U-6 behaves relative to the headline unemployment rate (U-3) will provide important information necessary to fully understand the full impact of the healthcare law on the labor market.

Looking at U-6, we see a labor market still deeply damaged, as U-6 in Florida averaged 12.3% for the four quarters from the 3rd quarter of 2014 through the 2nd quarter of 2015, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, while the national rate of U-6 stands at 11.3% over that same period.

While U-6 in Florida is down from its 2014 average reading of 12.8%, the current rate still reflects the depth of the damage done to the labor market by the historic recession in Florida that is not captured by the current headline unemployment rate of 5.3%.

The labor force in Florida is expected to grow an average of 1.7% during 2015-2018. That compares to an average growth rate of just 1.0% during the prior four years. As a result, the unemployment rate is expected to continue to hover around 5.5% during 2015, before dipping to 5.2% during 2016-2018. The decline in the unemployment rate next year will be met with the growing labor force stalling the downward progress made up to that point.

Nationally and in Florida, the levels of underemployment— those who are working part-time but not by their choice, and workers marginally attached to the labor force (those who are neither working nor currently looking for work, but indicate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

13


F lo r i d a S umma r y T ables Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida.(%Ch Year ago) U.S.(%Ch Year ago)

725.2 4.1 2.8

767.4 5.8 6.2

793.0 3.3 5.2

811.4 2.4 2.0

848.9 4.6 4.2

Personal Income (Bil. 2009$) Florida.(%Ch Year ago)

721.5 3.3

743.6 3.1

757.3 1.8

765.4 1.1

U.S.(%Ch Year ago) Disp. Income (Bil. 2009$) Florida.(%Ch Year ago) U.S.(%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. $)

1.2 666.4 3.3 1.0 730.9

3.7 679.3 2.0 2.5 736.9

3.3 688.2 1.3 3.0 766.3

0.8 688.6 0.1 -0.2 800.7

2015

2016

2017

2018

893.4 5.2 4.1

937.4 4.9 4.4

990.4 5.7 4.9

1,045.7 5.6 4.6

789.9 3.2

829.3 5.0

858.1 3.5

889.8 3.7

920.9 3.5

2.8 708.6 2.9 2.7 839.9

3.0 739.7 4.4 2.5 879.4

3.1 765.3 3.5 3.0 920.7

3.3 794.1 3.8 3.4 964.9

3.0 824.5 3.8 3.2 1,011.0

Personal Income and GSP

(%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. 2009$) (%Ch Year ago)

1.1

0.8

4.0

4.5

4.9

4.7

4.7

4.8

4.8

723.5 0.1

718.9 -0.6

731.3 1.7

749.3 2.5

769.7 2.7

795.2 3.3

819.6 3.1

843.4 2.9

867.1 2.8

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change Year Ago) Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

0.6

2.0

2.3

2.1

2.7

1.5

2.1

2.2

1.9

1.0 10.9

0.7 9.8

0.7 8.3

0.7 7.0

1.6 6.1

0.8 5.5

1.9 5.2

2.2 5.2

2.0 5.2

9.6

8.9

8.1

7.4

6.2

5.4

5.3

5.3

5.4

NonFarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change Year Ago) Total Nonfarm U.S. Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Durable Goods

-0.7 -0.8

1.2 1.1

1.7 2.0

1.7 2.5

1.9 3.2

2.1 3.2

1.4 2.2

1.4 2.0

1.0 1.5

-0.5

4.0

-0.3

0.4

1.3

-3.2

-3.6

-0.1

0.2

-11.4 -4.5 -3.6 -5.0

-4.3 1.1 0.8 1.3

2.1 1.6 1.1 1.8

7.0 1.6 -0.2 2.5

8.5 2.5 0.7 3.4

6.8 1.3 -0.6 2.3

7.2 1.4 1.1 1.5

7.6 0.9 0.2 1.3

5.1 0.7 0.4 0.9

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

-2.0

3.7

2.2

2.7

2.7

4.1

3.8

3.7

2.6

Wholesale Trade

-2.8

-0.4

1.9

1.0

2.2

2.5

1.9

2.5

2.2

Retail Trade Financial Activities Prof. and Business Services Edu & Health Services

0.2 -1.9 1.3 1.9

2.2 1.8 3.0 1.9

2.4 2.7 3.6 1.7

2.7 2.7 4.0 1.7

3.8 2.0 4.3 2.8

3.3 2.5 3.4 4.0

0.5 1.1 3.6 3.1

-0.2 -0.1 4.7 2.0

0.0 -0.7 2.7 1.4

Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't.

0.5 -4.6 7.2 -1.2

2.8 -1.0 -5.4 -1.1

4.2 -1.6 -0.9 -1.4

4.0 0.4 -0.6 -0.2

4.7 1.5 -0.2 -0.1

5.0 -0.1 1.4 0.2

2.2 -0.7 -0.1 0.6

1.0 3.4 -1.2 1.4

1.9 -0.3 -1.3 1.4

Population and Migration Population (thous) (%Ch Year ago) Net Migration (thous) (%Ch Year ago)

37.9 31.6

41.3 31.7

59.3 42.5

80.7 54.6

Housing 80.4 56.7

100.7 66.4

125.7 81.8

144.0 96.6

151.9 101.4

Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

6.4

9.6

16.8

26.1

23.7

34.3

43.8

47.4

50.5

(%Ch Year ago)

1.2

3.1

1.9

0.3

1.8

2.4

2.6

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous) Housing Starts Single Family (thous)

14

18,888.3 19,138.1 19,385.5 19,639.6 19,929.4 20,224.0 20,530.5 20,842.5 21,160.3 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 182.9 210.1 212.3 240.3 265.3 264.0 264.8 263.6 265.0 83.1 19.8 1.2 13.1 11.6 -0.5 0.3 -0.4 0.5

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2015

Consumer Prices 1.5 1.9


F lo r i d a S umma r y T ables Table 2. Quarterly Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida* 2015Q1

2015Q2

2015Q3

2015Q4

2016Q1

Personal Income (Bil. $)

875.5

887.1

902.1

908.9

920.7

Florida.(%Ch Year ago) U.S.(%Ch Year ago) Personal Income (Bil. 2009$) Florida.(%Ch Year ago)

5.1 4.7 816.9 4.9

4.9 4.0 823.8 4.8

5.7 3.9 834.9 5.5

5.1 3.9 841.6 4.8

5.2 4.1 848.7 3.9

U.S.(%Ch Year ago) Disp. Income (Bil. 2009$) Florida.(%Ch Year ago) U.S.(%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch Year ago)

2016Q2

2016Q4

2017Q1

2017Q2

2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q1

Personal Income and GSP 930.5 942.7 955.4

970.6

983.8

996.8

1,010.3

1,026.0

5.4 4.9 878.9 3.6

5.7 5.0 886.2 3.9

5.7 5.0 893.3 3.8

5.7 4.9 900.8 3.6

5.7 4.8 910.3 3.6

4.9 4.3 853.3 3.6

2016Q3

4.5 4.5 860.9 3.1

5.1 4.8 869.6 3.3

3.5

3.1

2.8

2.6

2.7

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.3

3.3

3.3

3.2

3.1

728.7 4.3 3.2 863.8

735.0 4.2 2.5 875.8

744.8 4.9 2.3 884.4

750.5 4.2 2.1 893.6

756.6 3.8 2.4 905.0

760.7 3.5 2.8 915.4

768.2 3.1 3.2 925.8

775.8 3.4 3.5 936.8

784.0 3.6 3.4 948.3

790.5 3.9 3.4 959.2

797.3 3.8 3.4 970.1

804.6 3.7 3.4 981.9

814.2 3.9 3.3 993.6

5.3

4.6

4.5

4.4

4.8

4.5

4.7

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.8

784.2

793.6

798.1

805.1

811.0

816.4

822.4

828.8

834.7

840.7

846.0

852.0

858.1

(%Ch Year ago)

3.7

3.4

3.2

3.0

3.4

2.9

3.0

2.9

2.9

3.0

2.9

2.8

2.8

Employment

2.7

1.3

1.1

0.9

1.1

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.2

2.1

2.0

1.9

Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

1.8 5.7 5.6

0.6 5.6 5.4

0.5 5.3 5.3

0.5 5.3 5.3

0.6 5.3 5.3

2.1 5.2 5.3

2.4 5.2 5.3

2.4 5.2 5.3

2.3 5.2 5.3

2.2 5.2 5.3

2.1 5.2 5.4

2.1 5.3 5.4

2.0 5.3 5.4

GSP (Bil. 2009$)

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change Year Ago)

NonFarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change Year Ago) Total Nonfarm U.S. Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing

2.3 3.5 0.0 8.6

2.1 3.5 -2.3 7.5

2.0 3.2 -4.6 5.7

1.8 2.7 -5.9 5.2

1.5 2.5 -4.8 5.0

1.4 2.2 -4.5 6.4

1.3 2.1 -3.2 8.3

1.4 2.1 -1.8 9.3

1.5 2.2 -0.9 8.6

1.5 2.2 -0.1 8.0

1.3 2.0 0.3 7.5

1.1 1.8 0.4 6.5

1.0 1.6 0.5 5.9

1.1

1.7

1.2

1.4

1.8

1.1

1.3

1.3

1.2

1.1

0.8

0.8

0.7

-1.6 2.4 3.2 2.9

-1.2 3.1 4.0 2.5

-0.9 2.2 4.7 2.3

1.2 1.5 4.5 2.2

1.4 2.1 4.5 2.0

1.3 1.1 3.9 2.0

1.0 1.4 3.3 1.7

0.8 1.5 3.6 2.0

0.5 1.5 3.9 2.3

0.3 1.4 3.9 2.4

0.1 1.1 3.7 2.6

0.1 1.1 3.5 2.6

0.2 1.0 3.1 2.5

Retail Trade

3.5

3.4

3.5

2.8

1.9

0.9

Financial Activities Prof. and Business Services Edu & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality

2.8 4.5 3.9 4.9

2.7 4.0 4.3 5.1

2.6 2.8 4.1 5.3

1.7 2.2 3.7 4.7

1.9 2.7 3.4 4.0

1.5 2.8 3.0 2.5

-0.1 0.7 3.7 3.1 1.4

-0.6 0.3 5.0 3.0 0.6

-0.3 0.0 5.4 2.7 0.4

-0.1 -0.1 5.4 2.3 0.8

-0.1 -0.1 4.6 1.7 1.2

-0.2 -0.4 3.5 1.3 1.7

-0.2 -0.6 2.8 1.4 1.8

-0.8 1.6 0.5

-0.2 1.5 0.2

0.1 1.6 0.2

0.7 1.1 -0.1

0.6 0.6 -0.2

0.0 0.1 0.5

-1.2 -0.4 1.0

-2.1 -0.9 1.1

2.1 -1.1 1.3

3.8 -1.3 1.4

3.9 -1.3 1.5

3.9 -1.3 1.6

0.5 -1.3 1.5

20,110.4

20,185.9

20,261.8

20,338.1

20,414.7

20,491.7

20,568.9

20,646.5

20,724.6

20,803.0

20,881.7

20,960.8

21,040.2

1.5 64.8 -2.7

1.5 66.4 -0.9

1.5 66.4 0.2

1.5 66.4 1.4

1.5 66.3 2.4

1.5 66.3 -0.1

1.5 66.1 -0.4

1.5 66.0 -0.6

1.5 66.0 -0.5

1.5 65.9 -0.6

1.5 65.8 -0.4

1.5 65.9 -0.2

1.5 66.0 0.0

87.6 59.2 28.4

97.0 65.7 31.3

106.7 68.6 38.1

111.4 72.2 39.2

115.8 75.5 40.3

122.2 78.6 43.6

136.6 90.0 46.7

139.6 94.0 45.6

143.9 96.3 47.6

145.4 97.5 47.8

147.2 98.4 48.7

149.6 100.1 49.5

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.3

1.7

2.2

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.6

Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade

Information Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't.

Population and Migration Population (thous) (%Ch Year ago) Net Migration (thous) (%Ch Year ago)

Housing Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous) Housing Starts Single Family (thous) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

128.0 83.2 44.8

Consumer Prices (%Ch Year ago)

1.6

1.7

2.2

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

15


F lo r i d a S umma r y T ables Table 3. Employment Quarterly*

2015Q1

2015Q2

2015Q3

2015Q4

2016Q1

2016Q2

2016Q3

2016Q4

2017Q1

2017Q2

2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q1

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

7,994.6

8,058.9

8,108.7

8,157.3

8,196.2

8,233.4

8,275.6

8,326.6

8,372.7

8,410.6

8,441.4

8,473.2

8,503.3

Manufacturing

331.7

334.9

336.2

336.8

337.9

338.7

340.4

341.2

341.8

342.3

343.1

343.8

344.3

Durable Goods

224.9

227.7

228.5

228.9

229.5

230.1

231.6

232.4

232.9

233.4

234.2

234.8

235.3

Wood Products

11.7

11.9

11.7

11.3

11.2

11.1

11.2

11.2

11.3

11.4

11.5

11.7

11.8

Computer & Electronics

42.0

42.7

42.5

42.4

42.4

42.5

42.8

43.1

43.2

43.3

43.4

43.4

43.4

Transportation Equipment

37.3

37.6

37.6

37.7

37.6

37.5

37.6

37.6

37.7

37.6

37.6

37.6

37.6

106.9

107.2

107.7

107.9

108.3

108.5

108.8

108.8

108.8

108.8

108.9

108.9

109.0

29.6

29.6

29.8

29.9

30.1

30.2

30.4

30.5

30.6

30.6

30.7

30.8

30.9

7,662.9

7,724.0

7,772.5

7,820.6

7,858.4

7,894.7

7,935.2

7,985.5

8,031.0

8,068.3

8,098.3

8,129.4

8,159.0

5.7

5.6

5.5

5.4

5.4

5.3

5.3

5.3

5.3

5.3

5.4

5.4

5.4

Construction

419.1

422.9

423.9

429.3

439.9

449.9

459.0

469.4

477.5

485.7

493.2

499.8

505.5

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

258.9

262.6

266.5

268.7

270.6

272.9

275.4

278.4

281.1

283.5

285.7

288.1

289.9

Wholesale Trade

333.4

334.9

337.2

339.0

340.1

341.6

343.1

345.7

347.9

349.8

351.9

354.6

356.4

1,064.5

1,072.9

1,082.2

1,088.0

1,084.3

1,082.2

1,081.6

1,081.2

1,080.9

1,080.7

1,080.1

1,079.1

1,078.7

134.8

135.7

136.4

137.1

135.7

135.7

134.7

134.2

138.5

140.8

140.0

139.5

139.2

Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

Retail Trade Information Prof. & Bus. Services

1,194.3

1,203.6

1,207.3

1,212.8

1,226.7

1,237.7

1,252.5

1,273.4

1,292.8

1,304.0

1,309.9

1,318.2

1,328.8

Admin. & Support

596.3

598.8

599.1

598.0

606.0

611.6

621.0

634.8

650.8

659.7

664.6

672.4

682.5

Prof. Sci & Tech

501.9

508.7

511.3

517.4

523.1

528.4

533.8

540.8

544.2

546.3

547.1

547.4

547.7

96.1

96.1

97.0

97.4

97.7

97.8

97.7

97.8

97.8

98.0

98.2

98.4

98.5

Financial Activities

531.8

534.1

537.3

540.6

542.1

542.0

541.2

542.2

542.1

541.6

540.8

539.9

538.9

Real Estate & Rent

173.1

176.5

178.4

178.9

179.4

179.6

180.1

181.1

182.2

182.9

183.6

184.3

185.1

Fin. & Insurance

358.7

357.6

358.9

361.7

362.7

362.4

361.1

361.1

360.0

358.7

357.2

355.6

353.8

1,188.2

1,203.5

1,212.7

1,222.0

1,229.0

1,239.8

1,250.0

1,259.2

1,262.5

1,268.2

1,271.7

1,275.4

1,279.8

149.2

149.7

151.3

152.5

152.2

152.1

151.8

151.4

150.5

149.8

149.1

148.1

147.3

Health Services

1,039.0

1,053.8

1,061.4

1,069.5

1,076.8

1,087.7

1,098.2

1,107.8

1,111.9

1,118.4

1,122.5

1,127.3

1,132.5

Leisure & Hospitality

1,118.1

1,133.9

1,148.6

1,158.9

1,163.3

1,162.7

1,164.8

1,166.1

1,168.4

1,171.5

1,179.2

1,185.9

1,189.2

333.9

336.9

339.0

340.8

342.1

342.9

343.3

343.6

343.8

343.8

343.8

343.9

344.3

1,080.1

1,077.4

1,075.8

1,077.9

1,079.2

1,082.0

1,084.2

1,086.7

1,090.1

1,093.4

1,096.7

1,099.8

1,102.8

Federal Gov't.

133.2

133.5

133.8

134.0

133.9

133.7

133.3

132.8

132.4

132.0

131.6

131.1

130.7

State & Local Gov't

946.9

943.8

942.0

944.0

945.3

948.2

950.9

953.9

957.7

961.4

965.1

968.7

972.2

Mgmt. of Co.

Edu. & Health Service Education Services

Other Services Government

*Quarterly at an annual rate

16

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2015


F lo r i d a S umma r y T ables Table 4. Employment Annual

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

8,258.0 8424.48

8,551.4

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

7,172.6

7,251.6

7,396.1

7,582.1

7,826.8

8,079.9

Manufacturing

309.0

312.5

317.4

322.4

330.5

334.9

339.5

342.7

345.3

Durable Goods

203.6

206.2

209.9

215.1

222.4

227.5

230.9

233.9

236.0

8.4

8.6

8.8

10.4

11.3

11.7

11.2

11.5

12.0

Computer & Electronics

43.0

43.0

42.5

41.0

40.7

42.4

42.7

43.4

43.5

Transportation Equipment

33.8

34.2

35.4

36.4

37.2

37.6

37.5

37.6

37.4

105.5

106.3

107.5

107.3

108.1

107.4

108.6

108.9

109.2

27.5

28.7

29.2

29.5

29.8

29.7

30.3

30.7

31.0

6,863.6

6,939.1

7,078.7

7,259.7

7,496.3

7,745.0

7,918.4

8,081.8

8,206.2

5.4

5.7

5.6

5.7

5.7

5.5

5.4

5.3

5.4

Construction

350.6

335.4

342.3

366.2

397.1

423.8

454.5

489.1

513.7

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

227.1

235.4

240.6

247.0

253.8

264.2

274.3

284.6

291.9

Wholesale Trade

313.2

312.1

317.9

320.9

328.0

336.1

342.6

351.1

358.7

Retail Trade

934.4

955.3

978.1

1,004.8

1,042.6

1,076.9

1,082.3

1,080.2

1,080.1

Information

137.1

135.7

133.6

134.1

136.1

136.0

135.1

139.7

139.3

1,005.9

1,035.9

1,073.6

1,116.9

1,165.5

1,204.5

1,247.6

1,306.2

1,341.6

Admin. & Support

494.3

516.8

537.3

558.5

584.3

598.0

618.3

661.9

695.0

Prof. Sci & Tech

432.4

437.7

450.9

467.3

487.1

509.8

531.5

546.2

547.7

79.1

81.4

85.4

91.2

94.1

96.7

97.7

98.1

98.9

Financial Activities

478.0

486.5

499.4

512.6

523.1

536.0

541.9

541.1

537.3

Real Estate & Rent

150.4

153.1

160.0

165.4

171.8

176.7

180.0

183.3

186.0

Fin. & Insurance

327.6

333.4

339.4

347.2

351.3

359.2

361.8

357.9

351.3

1,070.7

1,090.9

1,109.4

1,128.5

1,159.8

1,206.6

1,244.5

1,269.4

1,287.5

Education Services

134.6

136.6

139.5

142.7

147.8

150.7

151.9

149.4

146.6

Health Services

936.1

954.3

969.8

985.8

1,012.0

1,055.9

1,092.6

1,120.0

1,140.9

Leisure & Hospitality

931.4

957.2

997.5

1,037.6

1,086.1

1,139.9

1,164.2

1,176.3

1,198.6

Other Services

297.3

295.6

301.7

309.4

324.2

337.6

343.0

343.8

345.0

1,112.7

1,093.3

1,079.0

1,075.9

1,074.3

1,077.8

1,083.0

1,095.0

1,107.1

Federal Gov't.

142.3

134.0

132.8

132.0

131.8

133.6

133.4

131.8

130.1

State & Local Gov't

970.4

959.3

946.2

943.9

942.6

944.2

949.6

963.2

977.0

Wood Products

Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

Prof. & Bus. Services

Mgmt. of Co.

Edu. & Health Service

Government

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

17


F lo r i d a S umma r y T ables Table 5. Personal Income-Quarterly*

2015Q1

2015Q2

2015Q3

2015Q4

2016Q1

2016Q2

2016Q3

2016Q4

2017Q1

2017Q2

2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q1

Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

875.5

887.1

902.1

908.9

920.7

930.5

942.7

955.4

970.6

983.8

996.8

1,010.3

1,026.0

Wages & Salaries

391.9

395.5

400.8

407.5

413.4

418.9

424.4

430.4

436.3

441.8

447.2

452.7

458.5

Other Labor Income

87.3

88.2

89.2

90.3

91.6

92.6

93.8

95.0

96.3

97.4

98.5

99.6

100.9

Nonfarm

51.5

52.0

53.0

54.1

55.0

56.2

56.7

57.7

58.5

59.2

59.6

60.1

60.7

0.9

1.1

1.1

1.2

1.1

1.0

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Property Income

227.1

231.4

237.3

234.4

236.0

236.8

240.4

244.1

248.4

253.2

258.3

263.6

268.9

Transfer Payments

Farm

176.3

178.7

181.1

182.7

185.8

188.0

190.2

192.0

195.7

197.6

199.4

201.2

205.1

Social Insurance

61.9

62.2

62.8

63.6

64.6

65.4

66.3

67.3

68.2

69.1

69.8

70.6

72.0

Personal Income

816.9

823.8

834.9

841.6

848.7

853.3

860.9

869.6

878.9

886.2

893.3

900.8

910.3

Wages & Salaries

Billions 2009 $

365.7

367.3

370.9

377.3

381.1

384.1

387.5

391.7

395.1

398.0

400.8

403.6

406.8

Other Labor Income

81.5

82.0

82.6

83.6

84.4

84.9

85.7

86.5

87.2

87.7

88.3

88.8

89.6

Nonfarm

48.0

48.3

49.0

50.1

50.7

51.5

51.8

52.5

53.0

53.4

53.4

53.6

53.9

Farm

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.1

1.1

0.9

1.0

1.0

1.0

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

Property Income

211.9

214.9

219.6

217.1

217.6

217.2

219.6

222.1

224.9

228.1

231.5

235.0

238.6

Transfer Payments

164.5

166.0

167.6

169.2

171.2

172.4

173.6

174.7

177.2

178.0

178.7

179.4

182.0

57.7

57.8

58.1

58.9

59.6

59.9

60.6

61.2

61.8

62.2

62.6

63.0

63.9

Social Insurance

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

1270.21 1291.90 1319.42 1323.05 1328.80 1336.55 1345.61 1354.73 1365.14 1374.98 1389.24 1395.84 1392.49

Retail Sales (Billions $)

291.8

297.6

300.8

302.6

307.9

311.8

316.3

319.5

324.4

328.2

332.5

336.7

341.8

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2009$)

272.4

276.4

278.4

280.2

283.8

285.9

288.8

290.8

293.7

295.7

298.0

300.2

303.3

*Quarterly at an annual rate

18

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2015


F lo r i d a S umma r y T ables Table 6. Personal Income-Annual

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

725.2

767.4

793.0

811.4

848.9

893.4

937.4

990.4

1,045.7

Wages & Salaries

322.9

332.4

346.5

358.2

377.6

398.9

421.8

444.5

467.5

Other Labor Income

76.5

75.2

78.0

81.5

84.9

88.8

93.2

97.9

102.3

Nonfarm

38.3

40.4

45.3

48.0

50.5

52.6

56.4

59.4

61.7

0.9

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.2

1.1

1.1

1.0

1.0

Property Income

186.8

210.8

213.3

216.1

222.7

232.6

239.3

255.9

275.6

Transfer Payments

148.6

152.2

155.5

160.6

169.5

179.7

189.0

198.5

207.9

50.7

46.8

48.8

56.5

59.8

62.6

65.9

69.4

73.2

Farm

Social Insurance

Billions 2009 $ Personal Income

721.5

743.6

757.3

765.4

789.9

829.3

858.1

889.8

920.9

Wages & Salaries

321.3

322.1

330.9

337.9

351.4

370.3

386.1

399.4

411.8

Other Labor Income

76.2

72.9

74.5

76.9

79.0

82.4

85.4

88.0

90.1

Nonfarm

38.1

39.2

43.2

45.3

47.0

48.9

51.6

53.3

54.3

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.1

1.0

1.0

0.9

0.9

Property Income

185.8

204.3

203.7

203.9

207.3

215.9

219.1

229.9

242.7

Transfer Payments

147.8

147.5

148.5

151.5

157.7

166.8

173.0

178.3

183.1

50.5

45.3

46.6

53.3

55.7

58.1

60.3

62.4

64.5

Farm

Social Insurance

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

810.51

879.82 1006.89 1101.01 1224.22 1301.14 1341.42 1381.30 1392.03

Retail Sales (Billions $)

242.3

259.1

266.2

277.3

289.6

298.2

313.9

330.5

347.6

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2009$)

241.0

251.1

254.2

261.6

269.6

276.8

287.4

296.9

306.1

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

19


F lo r i d a C ha r ts

Florida & U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 FL Unemployment Rate U.S. Unemployment Rate

Florida Construction Employment (Thousands)

700.0 600.0 500.0 400.0 300.0

20

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2015


F lo r i d a C ha r ts

Florida Consumer Price Index (% change year ago)

6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 FL CPI

Florida Education & Health Services Employment 1250.0 1200.0 1150.0 1100.0 1050.0 1000.0 950.0 900.0 850.0 800.0

(Thousands)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

21


F lo r i d a C ha r ts

Florida Federal Government Employment (Thousands)

160.0 150.0 140.0 130.0 120.0 110.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Florida Financial Activities Employment (Thousands)

560.0 540.0 520.0 500.0 480.0 460.0

22

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2015


F lo r i d a C ha r ts

Florida Gross State Product 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6%

(% change year ago)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 FL Gross State Product

Florida Housing Starts 300.0

(thousands)

9%

250.0

8%

200.0

7%

150.0

6%

100.0

5%

50.0

4%

0.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Total Private Housing Starts 30 year Mortgage Rates

3%

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

23


F lo r i d a C ha r ts

Florida Information Employment (Thousands)

190.0 180.0 170.0 160.0 150.0 140.0 130.0 120.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Florida Leisure & Hospitality Employment (Thousands)

1300.0 1200.0 1100.0 1000.0 900.0 800.0

24

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2015


F lo r i d a C ha r ts

Florida Manufacturing Employment 500.0

(Thousands)

450.0 400.0 350.0 300.0 250.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

New Passenger Car & Light Truck Registrations 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50%

(% change year ago)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

25


F lo r i d a C ha r ts

Florida Employment (Thousands)

9000.0 8500.0 8000.0 7500.0 7000.0 6500.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Wage & Salary Employment

Florida Personal Income (% change year ago)

12% 9% 6% 3% 0% -3% -6% -9%

26

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2015


F lo r i d a C ha r ts

Florida Population (Thousands)

22000.0 21000.0 20000.0 19000.0 18000.0 17000.0 16000.0 15000.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Florida Professional & Business Services Employment 1400.0

(Thousands)

1300.0 1200.0 1100.0 1000.0 900.0 800.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Florida Real Gross State Product 10%

(% change year ago)

5% 0% -5% -10%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

27


F lo r i d a C ha r ts

Florida State & Local Government Employment (Thousands)

1050.0 1000.0 950.0 900.0 850.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Florida Trade, Transportation & Utilities Employment (Thousands)

1750.0 1700.0 1650.0 1600.0 1550.0 1500.0 1450.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Florida Unemployment Rate (percent)

14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%

28

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Unemployment Rate

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2015


F lo r i d a N e w s S umma r ies Scott: State nearly out of money to lure jobs

• Enterprise Florida and Governor Scott say that Florida only has $9 million left in the State’s main account for attracting and incentivizing companies. CEO of Enterprise Florida, Bill Johnson, further stated that this money would more than likely be depleted in the coming weeks.

• The Florida legislature denied Enterprise Florida the $85 million it asked for, setting aside only half that amount for their budget. Republican legislators doubted that Enterprise Florida would need such a robust budget because it had not been spending all the money it’s received in past years.

• In spite of its low spending pattern, Enterprise Florida is now warning local economic development agencies that the state may not be able to assist them for much longer. • “This is what I call a reality check,” says Johnson, also noting that his organization could create 8,000 more jobs if they had been given the full budget.

Source: Lakeland Ledger, August 20, 2015

Domestic tourism will support Florida economy despite international weakness

• Florida is expected to receive over 100 million visitors in 2015. The 104 million tourists – 88 million of which are from other states – is about 30% higher from that of the recession lows.

• Tourists in Florida will spend nearly $90 billion this year, helping the Florida economy recover from its worst recession on record. Such a jump in figures in domestic travel is due to the strengthening U.S. economy, rising wealth of American families, and low gas prices. • More visitors to Florida will benefit tax revenues, drive up vacation home sales and rentals, and increase commercial real estate and transportation investments. With these improvements, Florida’s economy is expected to grow by 3.5% in 2015 and 4% in 2016, well ahead of the national economy.

Source: EconoTimes, August 26, 2015

Florida continues to lead US in foreclosures

• Florida is the nation’s leader in completed foreclosures, accounting for one out of every five this year.

• While the foreclosure rate in Florida has dropped from 5.2% to 2.9% in 2015, it remains over twice the national average of 1.3%. Even with declining figures, 6.5% of all Florida home mortgages are considered seriously delinquent.

• There is hope, however, as these levels have dropped considerably over the past seven years as unemployment has declined and more borrowers can stay on their current mortgage loan.

Source: Herald-Tribune, July 14,2015

Ocean acidification threatens Florida’s economy

• Ocean acidification – a change in ocean chemistry due to carbon pollution – will have a large impact on Florida’s fishing and tourist industries in the years to come.

• The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported in 2012 that saltwater fishing contributed over $8 billion to the Florida economy and supports just under 110,000 jobs. A further $6 billion is added to the economy through local sales and $2.8 billion in local income for spending on recreational diving, fishing, and wildlife viewing. • Florida lawmakers have recognized the importance of healthy fresh and saltwater ecosystems to the economy, and have introduced the bipartisan Coastal Communities Ocean Acidification Act of 2015. The Act seeks to engage with NOAA in order to study ocean acidification in Florida and how it could affect businesses, as well as find strategies to mitigate the effects of ocean acidification.

Source: Tampa Bay Times, August 31, 2015

Florida’s unemployment fund below recommended level

• The Florida unemployment insurance trust fund, as of January 1st, has a balance of just $1.85 billion. The US Labor Department rates such a balance at an adequacy level of .66, falling well into the ‘red zone.’ The Labor Department’s recommended adequacy level is 1.0, or enough funds to pay for one year of benefits payouts.

• Jessica Sims, Spokeswoman for the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, says that the 1.0 adequacy level “is a goal, not a mandate.” She further assured that by June, the trust fund balance was well above $2 billion. • Even with these assurances, Florida is still poorly financed in this area and has some of the strictest guidelines for qualifying for unemployment benefits.

• This year, when most were expecting increases in employer contributions to the trust fund, employers actually got a $30.40 decrease in what they would have to pay per employee. The figure currently stands at $16.80 per employee, down from $47.20 per employee.

Source: Sun Sentinel, August 30, 2015

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

29


Deltona – Da y tona B each – O r mon d B each

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Deltona–Daytona–Ormond Beach MSA is comprised only of Volusia County. It is located on the east coast of Florida and is notable for special events that occur throughout the year such as Bike Week. It is home to NASCAR headquarters and the Daytona International Speedway which hosts popular races such as the Daytona 500.

The Deltona–Daytona–Ormond Beach Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show low levels of growth in most of the economic indicators measured in this forecast relative to the other MSAs studied. Personal income is expected to average 4.9 percent growth, while the real per capita income level will average $35,300. The average annual wage will be the lowest of the studied areas at $41,400. Average annual wage growth is expected to be moderate at 3.4 percent. Population growth will average 1.1 percent. Gross Metro Product will be at an average level of 15,054.77 million dollars.

QUICK FACTS:

• Population estimate of 600,756 as of July 1, 2013 census (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 279,297 in July 2015 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

• An unemployment rate of 6.1% as of July 2015, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 16,911 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Volusia County Schools – 7,503 • Halifax Health – 4,709

• Florida Hospital Volusia-Flagler Market – 3,256 • County of Volusia – 3,341

• Daytona State College – 1,568

• Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University – 1,423 • Florida Health Care Plans, Inc. – 916 • Frontier Communications – 800

• Department of Transportation – 700 • Bert Fish Medical Center – 700

Source: Volusia County Department of Economic Development and Enterprise Florida

The employment growth rate is expected to average 1.6 percent each year. Unemployment will average 6.0 percent.

The Deltona MSA will experience the most growth in the Construction and Mining sector, with an average growth rate of 4.7 percent annually. The Professional and Business Services sector will see the second highest average growth in the Deltona MSA at 3.0 percent annually. The Education and Health Services sector follows with an average annual growth rate of 2.9 percent. The Federal Government sector and Information sector are the only sectors expected to experience a decline, at -0.6 and -0.3 percent.

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Experts: Volusia-Flagler gas prices could dip below $2 by Thanksgiving • Gasoline prices could drop below two dollars as early as Thanksgiving in the Flagler-Volusia area.

• The drop in price could be attributed to the annual substitution of winter-blended fuel in place of a more costly concoction used during warmer periods, as well as dropping consumer demand along with falling crude oil prices.

• At the beginning of August 2014, gas prices in the area were at an average of $3.42. By the end of that year, gas prices had fallen to an average of $2.39. Gregg Laskoski, a senior petroleum analyst working with GasBuddy.com, believes that gas prices could

30

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2015


Deltona – Da y tona B each – O r mon d B each

fall even lower this year because of the lower starting price this fall compared to fall of last year. Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, August 3, 2015 New stores coming: Volusia Mall to be fully leased for first time in years • Volusia Mall, now holding about 120 shops and restaurants, will be fully leased for the first time in years as new fall tenants move in for yearlong contracts.

• Judy Krodel, the owner of the Wicks ‘N’ Sticks shop located in the mall, stated that more business is usually added during the fall; however, they tend to be seasonal contracts. This time around, all tenants inside the mall hold yearlong contracts.

• Cheddar’s Scratch Kitchen opens in early September, employing about 200 workers; H&M will open in November and employ 30 workers; The Winey Wench opens September 14; and many others are sure to follow.

Fields BMW set to move into new digs at Daytona International Auto Mall

• Fields BMW of Daytona has relocated to a newly constructed complex at the Daytona International Auto Mall. This new 38,000-square-foot complex – about double the amount of space available at their old location – cost a total of about $10 million. • In the newer complex, Fields BMW will have more customer-oriented amenities such as fully enclosed service drive-thru lanes, a larger customer waiting area with televisions, and a full kitchen. The newer facility also provides a larger showroom and more parking spaces for outdoor display. • The old facility will house Fields Mini of Daytona.

Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, July 31, 2015

Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, August 24, 2015 July jobs report paints an upbeat picture

• During July, Volusia and Flagler counties saw a decrease in the unemployment rate. The July unemployment rate for Flagler County fell to 6.5%, compared to 7.9% in July 2014.

• Employers in the Volusia-Flagler area added 3,400 workers to their payroll this July. Overall, the education and health services sector, manufacturing sector, and the government sector saw better growth rates compared to the overall state growth. • Seven sectors saw job growth while three sectors saw a general decrease, including mining, logging, and construction as well as information. Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, August 21, 2015

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

31


Deltona – Da y tona B each – O r mon d B each Deltona - Daytona Beach - Ormond Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

(percent)

16000.0

32

1.4

1.6

(Millions 2000 $)

14000.0 13000.0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 FL Unemployment Rate Deltona Unemployment Rate

12000.0

(Thousands)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Deltona Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2015

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Real Gross Metro Product

Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Personal Income

Deltona-Daytona Beach Payroll Employment 195.0 190.0 185.0 180.0 175.0 170.0 165.0 160.0 155.0

1.2

15000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

1.0

Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Gross Metro Product

Florida & Deltona-Daytona Beach Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

0.8

8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0%

(percent change year ago)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Real Personal Income


Deltona – Da y tona B each – O r mon d B each

Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

September 2015

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

19.4 4.1 6.3 13.1 19.3 3.3 32.8 32.6 36.2 2.2

20.0 3.5 6.3 13.7 19.4 0.8 33.8 32.8 36.3 0.2

20.6 2.7 6.6 14.0 19.7 1.2 34.5 33.0 37.4 3.0

21.0 1.9 6.7 14.2 19.8 0.6 34.8 32.8 37.5 0.4

21.8 4.0 7.0 14.8 20.3 2.6 35.7 33.2 38.3 2.0

22.8 4.7 7.4 15.4 21.2 4.4 36.9 34.3 39.3 2.6

23.8 4.3 7.7 16.1 21.8 2.9 38.1 34.9 40.7 3.7

25.1 5.4 8.1 16.9 22.5 3.4 39.7 35.7 42.1 3.4

26.4 5.3 8.5 17.9 23.3 3.2 41.4 36.4 43.7 3.8

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 172.4 173.5 175.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.3 0.6 1.0 Manufacturing 8.4 9.1 9.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.9 7.7 2.7 Nonmanufacturing 164.0 164.4 165.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.2 0.2 0.9 Construction & Mining 8.8 8.2 8.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -11.6 -6.7 3.3 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 33.5 33.5 33.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.7 0.2 0.9 Wholesale Trade 5.1 5.0 4.9 Retail Trade 26.3 26.5 26.8 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 2.1 2.0 2.1 Information 3.2 3.1 2.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -8.1 -4.2 -5.7 Financial Activities 7.9 8.1 8.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.1 2.0 4.3 Prof & Business Services 17.3 17.8 18.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.1 3.0 3.8 Educ & Health Services 34.1 34.8 34.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 2.0 0.5 Leisure & Hospitality 24.1 25.1 25.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.5 4.3 3.0 Other Services 8.8 8.3 8.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.1 -5.7 0.1 Federal Government 1.7 1.4 1.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 6.8 -17.1 -8.2 State & Local Government 24.6 24.0 23.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.1 -2.1 -3.2

177.9 1.5 9.9 5.8 168.0 1.3 9.3 9.8 33.7 -0.2 4.6 27.0 2.2 2.8 -5.2 8.5 1.2 19.4 4.6 35.6 1.9 26.5 2.5 8.3 -0.1 1.3 -1.9 22.6 -3.0

182.1 2.4 10.3 5.1 171.7 2.2 10.1 7.8 34.4 2.0 4.5 27.6 2.3 2.6 -4.5 8.5 -0.4 20.3 5.0 36.1 1.4 27.9 5.2 8.4 0.8 1.3 2.0 22.1 -2.1

186.7 2.5 10.5 1.3 176.2 2.6 10.2 1.1 35.1 2.1 4.6 28.2 2.3 2.5 -3.6 8.7 2.6 21.2 4.4 38.0 5.4 28.2 1.0 8.4 0.1 1.3 0.3 22.5 1.8

189.0 1.2 10.7 1.6 178.4 1.2 10.8 5.9 35.1 -0.2 4.7 28.0 2.4 2.5 -1.2 8.7 -0.1 21.4 1.0 39.2 3.1 28.4 0.7 8.4 0.3 1.3 -0.2 22.5 0.3

191.9 1.6 10.8 1.2 181.2 1.6 11.6 7.4 35.1 0.2 4.8 27.9 2.4 2.6 3.6 8.6 -0.7 22.4 4.4 39.9 1.7 28.5 0.3 8.4 0.1 1.3 -1.3 22.8 1.1

194.2 1.2 10.9 1.0 183.3 1.2 12.0 4.2 35.2 0.3 4.9 27.9 2.5 2.6 -0.2 8.5 -1.1 22.9 2.3 40.4 1.4 28.9 1.3 8.4 0.1 1.3 -1.3 23.0 1.1

602.4 1.0 279.7 0.1 8.1 1886.1 1654.3 232

610.8 1.4 282.3 0.9 6.8 1965.4 1790.8 175

617.5 1.1 283.2 0.3 6.0 1672.9 1472.0 201

624.4 1.1 291.1 2.8 5.9 3416.1 2649.9 766

631.2 1.1 298.5 2.5 6.1 5183.3 3761.8 1422

638.3 1.1 305.1 2.2 6.1 5499.2 4005.6 1494

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

590.9 0.2 279.6 0.7 12.3 1001.3 848.8 152

592.4 0.3 279.6 0.0 11.2 1178.4 659.8 519

596.4 0.7 279.5 0.0 9.5 1010.1 993.0 17

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

33


Deltona – Da y tona B each – O r mon d B each

Quarterly Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

September 2015

2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

23 4.9 7.4 15.6

23.1 4.6 7.5 15.6

23.4 4.2 7.6 15.8

23.6 4.2 7.7 15.9

23.9 4.1 7.8 16.1

24.2 4.7 7.9 16.3

24.6 5.1 8 16.6

24.9 5.4 8.1 16.8

25.2 5.5 8.2 17.1

25.6 5.5 8.3 17.3

25.9 5.5 8.4 17.6

26.3 5.4 8.5 17.8

26.6 5.2 8.6 18

26.8 5 8.7 18.1

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

21.3 4.6

21.4 4.3

21.6 2.9

21.7 2.9

21.8 2.7

22.1 2.9

22.3 3.2

22.4 3.6

22.6 3.5

22.8 3.4

23 3.4

23.2 3.3

23.3 3.1

23.5 3

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

37.2 34.4

37.3 34.6

37.6 34.7

37.9 34.8

38.3 34.9

38.6 35.2

39.1 35.4

39.5 35.6

39.9 35.8

40.3 36

40.8 36.2

41.2 36.4

41.5 36.5

41.9 36.6

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

39.3 2.8

39.7 2.9

40.1 2.9

40.5 3.8

40.9 4.1

41.2 3.8

41.6 3.5

41.9 3.4

42.3 3.4

42.7 3.4

43.1 3.6

43.5 3.7

43.9 3.8

44.4 4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

186.3 1.9

187.2 2

187.9 0.6

188.5 1.1

189.4 1.7

190.3 1.6

191 1.7

191.7 1.7

192.3 1.5

192.7 1.3

193.2 1.1

194 1.2

194.7 1.3

195.1 1.2

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

10.6 1.5

10.6 2.2

10.6 2.3

10.6 1.6

10.7 1.2

10.7 1.2

10.7 1.4

10.8 1.4

10.8 1.1

10.8 1.1

10.9 1.1

10.9 1.1

10.9 0.9

10.9 0.9

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

175.7 1.9

176.7 2

177.3 0.5

177.9 1.1

178.7 1.7

179.6 1.7

180.3 1.7

181 1.7

181.5 1.5

181.9 1.3

182.4 1.1

183.1 1.2

183.8 1.3

184.1 1.2

10 -2.3

10.1 0.2

10.4 0.2

10.6 4.5

10.9 8.9

11.1 10

11.3 9.2

11.5 8.2

11.6 6.8

11.8 5.6

11.9 4.6

12 4.4

12.1 4.3

12.2 3.7

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

35 0.9

35.2 1.3

35.1 -0.6

35 -0.1

35 0.1

35.1 -0.4

35.1 0

35.1 0.2

35.1 0.3

35.1 0.2

35.2 0.2

35.2 0.3

35.3 0.5

35.3 0.4

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

4.6 28.1 2.3

4.6 28.3 2.3

4.6 28.1 2.3

4.6 28.1 2.3

4.7 28 2.4

4.7 28 2.4

4.7 27.9 2.4

4.8 27.9 2.4

4.8 27.9 2.4

4.8 27.8 2.5

4.9 27.8 2.5

4.9 27.8 2.5

4.9 27.9 2.5

4.9 27.8 2.5

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.5 -3.3

2.5 -1

2.5 -2.2

2.5 0.2

2.5 -0.9

2.5 -1.8

2.6 2.3

2.6 4

2.6 4

2.6 4

2.6 0.6

2.6 -1

2.6 -0.2

2.6 -0.1

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

8.6 2.1

8.7 1.8

8.7 -0.7

8.7 0.2

8.6 0.2

8.7 -0.3

8.6 -0.6

8.6 -0.6

8.6 -0.6

8.6 -1

8.5 -1.1

8.5 -1.1

8.5 -1.1

8.5 -1

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

20.8 2.5

20.9 -1.1

21.1 -3.7

21.3 0.1

21.5 3.3

21.9 4.4

22.2 4.9

22.4 5.2

22.5 4.4

22.6 3.3

22.7 2.5

22.9 2.3

23 2.3

23 2

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

38.4 5.7

38.7 7.5

38.8 4.9

39.1 2.7

39.4 2.6

39.6 2.5

39.7 2.2

39.9 2

40 1.4

40.1 1

40.2 1.2

40.3 1.2

40.5 1.5

40.7 1.6

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

28.2 0.8

28.4 0.4

28.5 1.4

28.4 0.9

28.4 0.6

28.4 -0.1

28.4 -0.3

28.4 0

28.5 0.5

28.7 0.9

28.7 1

28.8 1.4

28.9 1.4

29 1.3

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

8.3 -0.5

8.4 -1.3

8.4 -1.3

8.4 0.6

8.4 1.2

8.5 0.8

8.4 0.5

8.4 0.1

8.4 -0.1

8.4 -0.3

8.4 -0.2

8.4 0

8.5 0.2

8.5 0.4

1.3 0

1.3 1.3

1.3 0.7

1.3 0.3

1.3 -0.6

1.3 -1

1.3 -1.2

1.3 -1.3

1.3 -1.3

1.3 -1.3

1.3 -1.3

1.3 -1.3

1.3 -1.2

1.3 -1.1

22.4 1.7

22.4 2

22.5 -0.5

22.5 0.3

22.5 0.7

22.6 0.7

22.7 1

22.7 1

22.8 1.1

22.9 1.2

22.9 1.2

23 1.1

23.1 1.1

23.1 1.1

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

618.2 1

619.9 1

621.6 1.1

623.5 1.1

625.3 1.1

627.1 1.2

628.7 1.1

630.4 1.1

632 1.1

633.7 1

635.2 1

637.2 1.1

639.3 1.1

641.4 1.2

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

283.8 0.6

285.9 1.1

288.1 1.7

290.1 3.7

292.2 3

294 2.8

295.8 2.7

297.6 2.6

299.5 2.5

301.2 2.4

302.7 2.3

304.3 2.3

305.9 2.1

307.4 2.1

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

34

5.9

5.9

5.9

5.9

6

6

6

6

6.1

6.1

6.1

6.1

6.1

6.1

1714 1521 192

2107 1789 318

2551 2092 459

3077 2419 658

3688 2822 866

4348 3266 1082

4897 3596 1301

5206 3767 1439

5281 3821 1460

5349 3864 1486

5423 3951 1472

5478 4025 1453

5537 4032 1505

5558 4015 1544

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2015


Gaines v ille

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Gainesville MSA is comprised of Alachua and Gilchrist Counties and is located in the central-north portion of the state. This Metro is home to the University of Florida and the Florida Museum of Natural History, Florida’s official natural history museum.

The Gainesville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show low levels of growth in most of the economic indicators relative to the other MSAs studied. Personal income growth will see an average of 4.8 percent growth, the third lowest of the studied MSAs. Real per capita income level is expected to average $38,800. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.4 percent, the third highest of the twelve studied MSAs, while the average annual wage level will be at $47,600. Population growth will average the second lowest of the studied areas at 0.8 percent annually. Gross Metro Product will be the second lowest of the studied MSAs at an average level of 10,710.20 million dollars. Gainesville will see an average employment growth rate of 1.3 percent annually, the lowest growth of the MSAs. The Gainesville MSA will, however, maintain the lowest average unemployment rate of the MSAs studied, at 4.3 percent. The fastest growing sector in the area will be the Construction and Mining sector, with an average growth rate of 4.7 percent annually. This is followed by the Professional and Business Services sector with an average annual growth rate of 3.1 percent. The Federal Government and Financial Services sectors will experience declines, with average annual growth rates of -0.9 percent and -0.4 percent, respectively.

QUICK FACTS:

• Metro population estimate of 270,382 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Alachua County population estimate of 253,451 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• Gilchrist County population estimate of 16,931 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 133,884 in July 2015 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

• An unemployment rate of 5.0% as of July 2015, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 6,636 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• University of Florida – 27,870 • UFHealth – 12,000

• Alachua County School Board – 4,200

• Veterans Affairs Medical Center – 3,500 • City of Gainesville – 2,270

• Publix Supermarkets – 2,160

• North Florida Regional Medical Center – 2,100 • Gator Dining Services – 1,200

• Nationwide Insurance Company – 950 • Wal-Mart Stores – 910

Source: Gainsville Area Chamber of Commerce

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Redevelopment proposed for Woodland Park

• The Gainesville Housing Authority (GHA) hosted a meeting to discuss the redevelopment project for Woodland Parks. The Executive Director of the GHA, Pamela Davis, discussed the three phases for the project. • The first and second phases will include the development of 100 multi-family rental units. The third phase will include the construction of over 100 condominiums/townhouses, which can be purchased as homes. These units will be more energy-efficient for family housing.

• The project will include a clubhouse, commercial space, and green areas for walking and biking trails. Source: The Gainesville Sun, August 29, 2015 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

35


Gaines v ille

Innovation Hub to double with federal grant and UF match • The University of Florida received an $8 million grant from the U.S. Economic Development Administration to double the size of the Florida Innovation Hub. The university is going to match the grant by adding another $9 million to the project.

• This will provide more space for more technology companies (about 45) to start and grow. According to the grant, the university has three years to complete the addition.

• The companies that have homes in the Hub have created more than 760 jobs and have brought in more than $50 million in private investment funds. Source: The Gainesville Sun, September 2, 2015 City considers funding options for parks and recreation

• An increase in property tax or sales tax might be the next thing coming to Gainesville residents in order to fund the Parks and Recreation Master Plan.

• Renovations to pools, community centers, and parks are included in the Parks, Recreation and Cultural Affairs Vision 2020 Master Plan adopted by the Gainesville City Commission. • The $79 million cost to implement the plan includes $3.8 million set aside for new facilities, and another $3.8 million for land acquisition. Source: The Gainesville Sun, August 11, 2015 Restaurant updates: new Outback, BakerBaker, food tours, Emiliano’s remodel

• Archer Road recently welcomed Outback Steakhouse, which opened in the previous location of Hops Restaurant Bar and Brewery. This is the 56th Outback in Florida, and fifty percent of the sales from opening day will go to the Boys and Girls Club of Alachua County.

36

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2015

• The restaurant named Emiliano’s is getting a facelift, updating its look and making some cosmetic repairs.

• BakerBaker is a new bakery serving desserts, coffee, and breakfast pastries. It is open from 7 a.m. to 11 a.m. Monday through Thursday. Source: The Gainesville Sun, September 1, 2015 County quietly OKs budget with tax hike, pay raise

• The tentative budget for the upcoming fiscal year includes a raise in taxes to offset the rise in health care costs and retirement benefit costs for county workers.

• A three percent pay raise, more money allocated to road repairs, and new ambulances are all a part of the $180 million spending package.

• Millage rates will go up for the three Municipal Services Taxing Units in the county to cover the increase in health insurance and employee retirement benefits. The plan also includes bringing 20 employees up to the federal living wage of $11.66 an hour. Source: The Gainesville Sun, July 14, 2015


Gaines v ille Gainesville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

Florida & Gainesville Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 FL Unemployment Rate Gainesville Unemployment Rate

1

140.0 135.0 130.0 125.0 120.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Gainesville Payroll Employment

2

2.5

Gainesville Real Gross Metro Product 11500.0 11000.0 10500.0 10000.0 9500.0 9000.0 8500.0 8000.0 7500.0

Gainesville Payroll Employment (Thousands)

1.5

(Millions 2000 $)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Real Gross Metro Product

Gainesville Real Personal Income 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

(percent change year ago)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

37


Gaines v ille

Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL

September 2015

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

9.4 4.3 5.2 4.2 9.4 3.5 35.5 35.4 40.8 1.3

9.9 5.3 5.3 4.7 9.6 2.6 37.2 36.0 41.4 1.5

10.0 1.1 5.4 4.6 9.6 -0.4 37.3 35.6 42.2 1.9

10.3 2.3 5.6 4.7 9.7 1.0 37.9 35.7 43.0 2.1

10.7 4.0 5.8 4.9 9.9 2.6 39.0 36.3 44.0 2.2

11.1 4.6 6.1 5.1 10.4 4.3 40.4 37.5 45.1 2.4

11.6 4.5 6.4 5.3 10.7 3.0 41.9 38.3 46.7 3.6

12.3 5.2 6.7 5.6 11.0 3.3 43.7 39.3 48.4 3.6

12.9 5.1 7.0 5.9 11.3 3.0 45.6 40.2 50.3 3.9

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 126.7 126.7 128.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.6 0.0 1.1 Manufacturing 4.4 4.4 4.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.7 -1.0 0.4 Nonmanufacturing 122.3 122.3 123.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.4 0.0 1.1 Construction & Mining 4.2 3.8 4.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -9.0 -8.7 10.6 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 17.9 18.0 18.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.6 1.0 0.6 Wholesale Trade 2.3 2.4 2.5 Retail Trade 13.2 13.4 13.3 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 2.3 2.3 2.4 Information 1.5 1.5 1.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.7 -0.5 -2.9 Financial Activities 6.0 6.1 6.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.4 1.9 3.6 Prof & Business Services 10.4 10.8 11.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.6 3.6 4.5 Educ & Health Services 22.1 22.4 22.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.8 1.1 2.2 Leisure & Hospitality 13.2 13.3 13.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.0 0.7 0.7 Other Services 4.1 4.1 4.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.8 0.6 -1.6 Federal Government 4.7 4.4 4.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 10.9 -6.2 -1.2 State & Local Government 38.1 37.8 37.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.6 -0.9 -0.7

128.9 0.7 4.4 0.2 124.5 0.7 4.4 2.6 18.3 0.9 2.7 13.2 2.5 1.5 1.1 6.2 -1.9 11.4 1.3 23.1 1.1 13.8 2.9 4.1 0.4 4.4 0.8 37.4 -0.3

131.5 2.0 4.2 -4.7 127.3 2.2 4.4 0.0 18.8 2.9 2.8 13.5 2.6 1.5 2.8 6.2 0.0 12.5 9.6 23.8 3.1 13.9 0.8 4.2 3.1 4.5 1.5 37.4 0.2

134.4 2.2 4.2 -0.2 130.2 2.3 4.5 2.6 19.6 4.0 2.9 14.1 2.6 1.6 5.6 6.3 0.9 12.9 3.5 24.9 4.6 14.2 2.0 4.3 3.1 4.5 0.8 37.3 -0.3

135.9 1.2 4.2 1.0 131.7 1.2 4.7 4.9 19.6 -0.1 2.9 14.0 2.6 1.6 -0.9 6.3 -0.2 13.3 2.7 25.5 2.2 14.4 1.3 4.4 1.2 4.5 -0.4 37.6 0.6

137.4 1.1 4.3 1.4 133.1 1.1 5.1 7.5 19.5 -0.1 3.0 13.9 2.7 1.6 3.1 6.2 -0.9 13.8 4.2 25.7 1.0 14.4 0.1 4.4 -0.4 4.4 -2.0 38.0 1.1

138.5 0.8 4.3 1.1 134.2 0.8 5.3 4.0 19.5 -0.1 3.0 13.8 2.7 1.6 -0.7 6.1 -1.4 14.1 2.0 25.9 0.7 14.6 1.1 4.3 -0.4 4.3 -2.0 38.4 1.1

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

270.7 0.7 136.2 -0.4 5.8 759.1 548.1 211

273.7 1.1 137.6 1.0 5.3 709.3 492.7 217

276.2 0.9 137.4 -0.1 4.7 734.2 451.3 283

278.3 0.7 140.6 2.3 4.2 1074.4 577.2 497

280.2 0.7 143.2 1.9 4.1 1323.4 731.5 592

282.1 0.7 145.2 1.4 4.2 1389.6 775.3 614

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

38

265.0 0.5 135.3 1.3 8.2 510.9 406.6 104

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2015

266.9 0.7 135.8 0.4 7.7 447.4 300.5 147

268.8 0.7 136.8 0.7 6.8 576.8 400.0 177


Gaines v ille

Quarterly Outlook for Gainesville, FL

September 2015

2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

11.2 5 6.1 5.1

11.3 4.4 6.2 5.1

11.5 4.4 6.3 5.2

11.6 4.6 6.3 5.2

11.7 4.2 6.4 5.3

11.9 4.7 6.5 5.4

12 5 6.6 5.5

12.2 5.3 6.6 5.5

12.3 5.3 6.7 5.6

12.5 5.3 6.8 5.7

12.7 5.3 6.9 5.8

12.8 5.2 7 5.9

12.9 5 7 5.9

13.1 4.8 7.1 6

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

10.4 4.7

10.5 4.1

10.6 3

10.6 3.3

10.7 2.8

10.8 2.9

10.9 3.1

11 3.4

11.1 3.4

11.1 3.2

11.2 3.2

11.3 3.1

11.4 2.9

11.4 2.8

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

40.6 37.6

40.9 37.8

41.3 38.1

41.6 38.2

42 38.4

42.5 38.7

43 39

43.5 39.2

44 39.4

44.4 39.6

45 39.9

45.4 40.1

45.9 40.3

46.3 40.5

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

45.2 2.7

45.6 3

46.1 3.1

46.5 3.8

46.9 3.9

47.3 3.7

47.7 3.6

48.2 3.5

48.6 3.6

49.1 3.7

49.5 3.8

50 3.9

50.5 3.9

51 4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

134.5 2

135 1.2

135.3 0.9

135.6 1.4

136.1 1.2

136.6 1.1

137 1.2

137.3 1.3

137.6 1.1

137.8 0.9

138 0.8

138.4 0.8

138.8 0.8

138.9 0.8

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

4.2 -0.5

4.2 -0.7

4.2 0

4.2 1.1

4.2 1.3

4.3 1.4

4.3 1.5

4.3 1.5

4.3 1.2

4.3 1.2

4.3 1.2

4.3 1.2

4.3 1.1

4.4 1.1

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

130.3 2.1

130.8 1.3

131.1 0.9

131.4 1.4

131.8 1.2

132.3 1.1

132.7 1.2

133.1 1.2

133.3 1.1

133.5 0.9

133.7 0.8

134.1 0.8

134.4 0.8

134.5 0.8

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

4.4 -1.5

4.4 -1.5

4.5 -2.6

4.6 3.5

4.8 9

4.9 10.2

5 9.4

5 8.3

5.1 6.8

5.1 5.5

5.2 4.4

5.2 4.2

5.3 4

5.3 3.4

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

19.6 3.1

19.7 1.8

19.6 0.4

19.6 -0.1

19.5 -0.3

19.6 -0.6

19.6 -0.3

19.6 -0.1

19.5 0

19.5 -0.1

19.5 -0.1

19.5 -0.1

19.6 0

19.5 -0.1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

2.9 14.1 2.6

2.9 14.2 2.6

2.9 14.1 2.6

2.9 14 2.6

2.9 14 2.6

2.9 14 2.7

2.9 13.9 2.7

3 13.9 2.7

3 13.9 2.7

3 13.8 2.7

3 13.8 2.7

3 13.8 2.7

3 13.8 2.8

3 13.7 2.8

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.6 6.1

1.6 3.3

1.6 0.5

1.6 -0.3

1.6 -1.4

1.6 -2.3

1.6 1.8

1.6 3.5

1.6 3.5

1.6 3.5

1.6 0.1

1.6 -1.5

1.6 -0.7

1.6 -0.6

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

6.2 1.2

6.3 0.5

6.3 -0.2

6.3 0.1

6.2 0

6.2 -0.5

6.2 -0.8

6.2 -0.8

6.2 -0.8

6.2 -1.2

6.1 -1.4

6.1 -1.4

6.1 -1.4

6.1 -1.3

12.9 1.1

13 0

13.1 1

13.2 2.3

13.3 3.1

13.5 4.2

13.7 4.7

13.8 5

13.9 4.2

13.9 3.1

14 2.2

14.1 2

14.2 2.1

14.2 1.7

25 4.9

25.2 4

25.2 2.3

25.4 2.7

25.5 2

25.7 1.9

25.6 1.6

25.7 1.3

25.7 0.8

25.8 0.4

25.8 0.6

25.9 0.5

25.9 0.8

26 0.9

14.3 5

14.4 0.7

14.4 2.6

14.4 2.5

14.4 0.5

14.4 -0.2

14.4 -0.5

14.4 -0.2

14.4 0.3

14.5 0.8

14.5 0.9

14.5 1.2

14.6 1.2

14.6 1.2

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

4.3 2.9

4.4 2

4.4 0.9

4.4 2.6

4.4 0.8

4.4 0.4

4.4 0.1

4.4 -0.3

4.4 -0.6

4.4 -0.8

4.3 -0.7

4.3 -0.5

4.3 -0.3

4.3 -0.1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

4.5 1

4.5 1.8

4.5 1

4.5 0.6

4.5 -1.3

4.5 -1.7

4.4 -1.9

4.4 -2

4.4 -2

4.4 -2

4.4 -2

4.3 -2

4.3 -1.9

4.3 -1.9

37.3 -0.4

37.4 0.1

37.5 0.3

37.5 0.7

37.6 0.7

37.7 0.8

37.8 1

37.9 1.1

38 1.1

38.1 1.2

38.3 1.2

38.4 1.2

38.5 1.1

38.6 1.1

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

276.5 0.9

277.1 0.9

277.5 0.8

278.1 0.8

278.5 0.7

278.9 0.7

279.4 0.7

279.9 0.7

280.4 0.7

280.9 0.7

281.4 0.7

281.9 0.7

282.4 0.7

282.9 0.7

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

137.6 0.1

138.5 0

139.4 1.1

140.2 3.4

141 2.4

141.7 2.3

142.3 2.1

142.9 1.9

143.6 1.8

144.1 1.7

144.5 1.6

145 1.4

145.5 1.3

145.9 1.2

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%)

4.5

4.4

4.3

4.2

4.2

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.2

4.2

4.2

4.1

4.2

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

756 447 308

869 478 390

974 512 463

1037 546 491

1096 591 505

1190 660 530

1258 701 557

1327 733 594

1347 743 604

1362 749 613

1384 767 616

1383 781 602

1393 780 613

1399 773 626

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

39


J ackson v ille

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Jacksonville MSA is comprised of Baker, Clay, Duval, Nassau and St. Johns counties. It is located on the northeast coast of Florida and is home to several major U.S. military bases, such as the Jacksonville Naval Air Station, as well as shipyards, the University of North Florida, and the Jacksonville International Airport.

The Jacksonville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to see moderate growth in most of the economic indicators, relative to the other MSAs studied. Personal income will see an average growth rate of 5.3 percent. The real per capita income level is expected to average $43,700, the third highest of the twelve studied MSAs. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.0 percent, while the average annual wage level is expected to be $53,400. Population growth will be moderate at an average annual rate of 1.4 percent. Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 65,093.89 million dollars.

QUICK FACTS:

• Metro population estimate of 1,394,624 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Baker County population estimate of 27,013 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• Clay County population estimate of 196,399 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Duval County population estimate of 885,855 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Nassau County population estimate of 75,710 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• St. Johns County population estimate of 209,647 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 721,612 in July 2015 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

• An unemployment rate of 5.6% as of July 2015, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 40,120 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Naval Air Station Jacksonville – 25,240 • Duval County Public Schools – 14,480 • Naval Station Mayport – 9,000 • City of Jacksonville – 8,820

• Baptist Health Systems – 8,270

• Bank of America Merrill Lynch – 8,000 • Florida Blue – 6,500

• Mayo Clinic – 4,970 • Citi – 4,200

• JP Morgan Chase – 4,200 Source: City of Jacksonville Office of Economic Development 40

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2015

Employment growth is expected to average 2.1 percent annually. Unemployment will average 5.2 percent in the MSA.

The fastest growing sector in the Jacksonville MSA will be Construction and Mining, which will see an average annual growth rate of 4.9 percent. Following that sector is the Leisure sector, with an average annual growth rate of 3.5 percent, and then the Educational and Health Services sector with an average growth rate of 3.0 percent. The Federal Government and Information sectors will experience declines, both at an average annual growth rate of -0.4 percent.

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES As Celebrity chefs eye Jacksonville, plans coming together for 220 Riverside

• The winner of season seven of Top Chef, Kevin Sbraga, will be opening a Southern-themed restaurant called Sbraga and Co. at 220 Riverside. Another restaurant called Hobnob will be opening at the same location featuring global food. Both are expected to open this fall.

• Hobnob is a 200-seat restaurant that will serve lunch and dinner and have tableside bar carts, chef ’s tables, and butler-passed appetizers. • The $1.5 million restaurant, Sbraga and Co., will feature crops and grains from the South. It will also have a raw bar and wood-fire grill, along with beer and wine.


J ackson v ille

• There is still one retail section available in 220 Riverside, and developers are looking for the next bar and grill to fill it. Source: The Florida Times Union, August 10, 2015 Anheuser-Busch can plant to add 75 jobs in Jacksonville

• Anheuser-Busch plans to invest about $200 million into the plant of its subsidiary, Metal Container Corp., on the Westside of Jacksonville, creating about 75 new jobs.

• The average salary for positions in the company over the next two years is estimated to be about $75,000 a year. The jobs include skilled technical positions, electricians, and engineers. • After a 200,000 square-foot addition, the manufacturing agreement is projected to add $67.5 million to the local economy.

Source: The Florida Times Union, September 1, 2015 Sunday Notebook: Old St. Joe headquarters sells for $25.1 million

• Consolidated-Tomoka, a timber, turpentine, and citrus operations company, now occupies the building on 245 Riverside. The company was founded in Jacksonville in the beginning of the 20th century. The President and CEO of the company, John Albright, is looking forward to the company’s new building.

• All of the new and upcoming buildings and restaurants around Riverside made the building even more attractive to Albright, as he wants to be in the midst of it all.

• At one time, the company owned about two million acres in Florida, but now they are down to only 10,300 acres in and around Daytona Beach.

Global heavy-hitting bank Macquarie Group plans move to downtown Jacksonville that could create 123 jobs

• By early 2016, Jacksonville will have a new Australian-based bank, Macquarie Group, opening its offices downtown. • The bank will bring in 123 high skilled, wellpaying jobs to downtown Jacksonville. Jacksonville is planning on cultivating the bank’s growth by bringing international bank operations to the area and the creation of new taxpayer incentives.

• The Macquarie Group has become the 13th financial firm from the Global 500 list to have an operation in Jacksonville. The group was founded in 1969 and has had a profit every year since it began. Source: The Florida Times Union, July 30, 2015 Baptist Health proposes $80 million hospital in Clay County with 100 beds

• Fleming Island may have a new medical facility, with construction starting in early 2016. The new hospital would be on 32 acres between Orange Park and Green Cove Springs. • By the time this project is complete it could bring in 400 - 600 new health care jobs, excluding the several hundred jobs needed for construction. Jobs including registration staff, physicians, nursing staff, radiology techs, and lab techs will all be necessary for the hospital.

• Out of the three major hospitals in the area, Clay is behind in the number of hospital beds and physicians. This expansion will help ensure that the Clay County community is well served. Source: The Florida Times Union, August 4, 2015

Source: The Florida Times Union, August 11, 2015

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

41


J ackson v ille Jacksonville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Jacksonville Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

0.6

0.8

1

70000.0

55000.0

4.0%

50000.0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 FL Unemployment Rate Jacksonville Unemployment Rate

45000.0

Jacksonville Payroll Employment (Thousands)

660.0 640.0 620.0 600.0 580.0 560.0

42

1.8

Jacksonville Real Gross Metro Product

6.0%

540.0

1.6

(Millions 2000 $)

60000.0

8.0%

680.0

1.4

65000.0

10.0%

2.0%

1.2

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Jacksonville Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2015

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Real Gross Metro Product

Jacksonville Real Personal Income 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

(percent change year ago)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Real Personal Income


J ackson v ille

Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

September 2015

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

53.3 3.8 27.7 25.5 53.0 3.0 39.4 39.2 46.3 2.4

55.7 4.5 28.5 27.2 53.9 1.7 40.8 39.5 47.2 1.7

59.1 6.1 29.8 29.3 56.4 4.6 42.8 40.9 48.7 3.3

60.2 1.9 30.5 29.7 56.8 0.6 43.0 40.6 49.0 0.5

62.8 4.3 31.9 30.9 58.4 3.0 44.2 41.1 50.0 2.0

65.7 4.7 33.2 32.5 61.0 4.4 45.5 42.3 50.8 1.6

69.1 5.1 35.0 34.0 63.2 3.6 47.2 43.2 52.4 3.3

73.1 5.8 36.9 36.2 65.7 3.8 49.3 44.3 54.2 3.4

77.2 5.6 38.8 38.3 68.0 3.5 51.4 45.2 56.2 3.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 579.9 586.1 594.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.6 1.1 1.4 Manufacturing 27.4 27.4 27.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.1 -0.2 1.7 Nonmanufacturing 552.5 558.7 566.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.3 1.1 1.4 Construction & Mining 29.2 27.5 27.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -12.7 -5.6 1.1 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 124.4 124.1 125.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.0 -0.2 1.1 Wholesale Trade 25.6 24.8 24.7 Retail Trade 68.8 69.0 70.2 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 30.0 30.3 30.5 Information 10.2 9.6 9.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.7 -5.7 -4.0 Financial Activities 55.7 58.0 60.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.1 4.1 3.5 Prof & Business Services 82.3 87.5 90.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.7 6.3 3.9 Educ & Health Services 85.7 87.8 89.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.4 2.4 1.6 Leisure & Hospitality 65.0 66.3 69.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.4 2.0 4.1 Other Services 23.0 21.6 20.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.9 -6.0 -5.9 Federal Government 18.0 17.3 17.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.9 -3.9 -0.4 State & Local Government 59.0 59.1 57.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.4 0.2 -3.0

608.0 2.3 27.8 -0.2 580.2 2.4 30.2 8.5 127.8 1.9 24.7 71.6 31.5 9.2 -0.6 61.5 2.4 94.0 3.4 91.3 2.3 71.8 4.1 20.6 1.5 17.0 -1.5 56.9 -0.9

623.1 2.5 27.9 0.2 595.3 2.6 32.5 7.7 129.6 1.4 24.0 73.1 32.5 9.2 0.8 61.3 -0.3 98.0 4.3 93.5 2.4 75.6 5.3 21.8 5.6 16.9 -0.4 56.8 -0.1

638.8 2.5 28.0 0.5 610.8 2.6 33.4 2.6 134.5 3.7 24.1 77.4 33.0 8.9 -3.3 61.7 0.7 96.8 -1.2 97.5 4.3 81.4 7.6 22.7 4.1 17.3 2.1 56.6 -0.3

653.7 2.3 28.2 0.9 625.5 2.4 35.0 5.1 136.4 1.4 24.6 77.9 33.9 8.8 -1.4 62.7 1.5 99.7 3.0 101.4 3.9 84.3 3.6 23.0 1.6 17.2 -0.7 56.9 0.5

666.4 1.9 28.6 1.2 637.9 2.0 37.5 7.1 138.1 1.2 25.3 77.8 35.1 9.1 3.2 62.5 -0.2 104.4 4.7 103.4 2.1 85.1 0.9 23.1 0.3 16.9 -1.5 57.6 1.3

676.2 1.5 28.9 1.1 647.3 1.5 39.4 5.0 139.6 1.1 25.9 77.9 35.9 9.1 -0.1 62.1 -0.7 107.3 2.8 105.0 1.5 86.6 1.8 23.2 0.5 16.7 -1.6 58.4 1.3

1399.3 1.3 710.8 0.9 7.1 7259.6 6161.3 1098

1421.9 1.6 719.5 1.2 6.2 7578.1 6327.1 1251

1443.1 1.5 712.5 -1.0 5.4 8890.0 6867.5 2023

1463.1 1.4 723.4 1.5 5.1 10346.3 7048.9 3297

1482.9 1.4 737.7 2.0 5.1 11516.1 7639.3 3877

1502.7 1.3 751.0 1.8 5.0 12014.7 7986.2 4029

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

1350.9 1.0 697.2 1.3 10.8 3723.6 3572.2 151

1364.2 1.0 701.5 0.6 9.7 3593.1 3191.4 402

1381.0 1.2 704.7 0.5 8.3 6403.8 4570.2 1834

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

43


J ackson v ille

Quarterly Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

September 2015

2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

66.3 5.2 33.3 33

66.9 4.7 33.9 33

67.8 5.2 34.4 33.4

68.6 5.3 34.8 33.8

69.5 4.7 35.2 34.2

70.4 5.3 35.7 34.7

71.6 5.5 36.2 35.3

72.6 5.8 36.7 35.9

73.6 5.9 37.1 36.4

74.6 5.9 37.6 37

75.7 5.8 38.1 37.7

76.7 5.7 38.6 38.1

77.7 5.5 39.1 38.6

78.6 5.4 39.6 39

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

61.4 4.9

62 4.4

62.5 3.9

62.9 4

63.4 3.3

64.1 3.5

64.8 3.6

65.4 4

65.9 3.9

66.5 3.8

67.2 3.7

67.7 3.6

68.2 3.5

68.7 3.3

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

45.9 42.5

46.1 42.7

46.6 43

46.9 43

47.4 43.3

47.9 43.6

48.5 43.9

49 44.2

49.5 44.4

50.1 44.6

50.7 44.9

51.1 45.1

51.6 45.3

52.1 45.5

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

50.7 1.7

51.3 1.9

51.8 2.3

52.2 3.5

52.7 3.8

53.1 3.5

53.5 3.4

54 3.3

54.4 3.4

54.9 3.4

55.4 3.6

56 3.7

56.5 3.7

57.1 3.9

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

643 2.9

646.5 2.6

649.3 2.9

651.9 2.7

654.8 1.8

658.8 1.9

662.4 2

665.4 2.1

667.8 2

670.2 1.7

672.5 1.5

675.2 1.5

677.8 1.5

679.3 1.4

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

28 0

28 -0.3

28.1 0.7

28.2 0.7

28.3 1.1

28.4 1.3

28.5 1.3

28.5 1.3

28.6 1.1

28.7 1.1

28.8 1.1

28.9 1.2

28.9 1.1

29 1

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

615 3

618.4 2.7

621.2 3

623.7 2.8

626.5 1.9

630.4 1.9

633.9 2.1

636.9 2.1

639.2 2

641.5 1.8

643.7 1.5

646.3 1.5

648.9 1.5

650.3 1.4

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

33.2 1.3

33.4 1.6

34.1 2.7

34.7 3.3

35.3 6.4

36.1 7.8

36.7 7.4

37.3 7.3

37.9 7.3

38.3 6.3

38.8 5.7

39.2 5.1

39.6 4.7

39.9 4.3

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

135.2 4

136 3.8

136 2.4

136.2 1.6

136.5 1

137 0.8

137.5 1.1

137.9 1.3

138.3 1.4

138.7 1.3

139.1 1.2

139.5 1.2

139.9 1.2

139.9 0.9

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

24.1 77.9 33.1

24.3 78.4 33.3

24.4 78.1 33.5

24.5 77.9 33.7

24.6 77.8 34

24.8 77.8 34.3

25 77.8 34.7

25.2 77.8 34.9

25.3 77.8 35.2

25.5 77.7 35.4

25.7 77.7 35.7

25.8 77.8 35.9

26 78 36

26.1 77.9 36

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

8.9 -3.3

9 -1.8

8.9 -0.6

8.8 -1

8.8 -1.6

8.7 -2.5

9 1.7

9.2 3.6

9.1 3.8

9.1 4

9.1 0.6

9.1 -1

9.1 -0.1

9.1 0

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

62.2 1.7

62.5 1.8

62.7 2.7

62.7 2.5

62.6 0.6

62.7 0.3

62.7 0

62.6 0

62.5 -0.1

62.4 -0.6

62.3 -0.7

62.1 -0.8

62.1 -0.7

62 -0.6

97 -2

97.3 -2.4

98.2 1

99 3.6

100.1 3.2

101.7 4.5

103.3 5.1

104.2 5.3

104.7 4.6

105.4 3.7

106.3 2.9

107.1 2.8

107.7 2.9

108.1 2.5

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

98.7 5.3

99.4 5

100 5

101 4.3

101.8 3.2

102.6 3.2

102.8 2.8

103.3 2.3

103.6 1.8

104 1.3

104.3 1.5

104.8 1.4

105.3 1.6

105.6 1.6

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

83.3 9.7

84 9.2

84.3 7.9

84.2 5

84.3 1.3

84.4 0.5

84.5 0.3

84.7 0.6

85.3 1.1

85.8 1.6

86 1.7

86.4 1.9

86.8 1.8

87.2 1.7

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

22.8 4.7

22.9 3.2

23 2.5

23 2.1

23.1 1.2

23.1 0.8

23.1 0.5

23.1 0.3

23.1 0.2

23.1 0.2

23.2 0.2

23.2 0.4

23.2 0.5

23.3 0.7

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

17.3 2.1

17.3 1

17.3 -0.4

17.2 -0.5

17.2 -0.6

17.1 -1.1

17 -1.4

17 -1.5

16.9 -1.6

16.8 -1.6

16.8 -1.6

16.7 -1.6

16.6 -1.5

16.6 -1.5

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

56.6 -0.2

56.7 -0.9

56.7 0.2

56.9 0.3

57 0.7

57.1 0.8

57.3 1.1

57.5 1.2

57.7 1.3

57.9 1.4

58.1 1.4

58.3 1.3

58.5 1.3

58.6 1.2

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1445.7 1.5

1450.7 1.4

1455.7 1.4

1460.6 1.4

1465.5 1.4

1470.6 1.4

1475.6 1.4

1480.4 1.4

1485.4 1.4

1490.3 1.3

1495.2 1.3

1500.2 1.3

1505.2 1.3

1510.2 1.3

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

710.1 -1.3

713.7 -1.1

717.8 0

721.4 1.8

725.3 2.1

729 2.1

732.4 2

735.7 2

739.5 2

742.9 1.9

746.1 1.9

749.2 1.8

752.7 1.8

756 1.8

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

44

5.3

5.2

5.2

5.1

5.1

5.1

5.1

5.1

5.1

5.1

5.1

5

5

4.9

9189 6994 2195

9518 6901 2617

9809 6871 2938

10079 6879 3200

10446 7041 3405

11051 7404 3647

11335 7574 3761

11495 7633 3862

11562 7651 3910

11673 7700 3973

11873 7882 3991

11953 8026 3926

12071 8036 4035

12162 8001 4162

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2015


L akelan d

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Lakeland MSA is comprised only of Polk County. It is located in the western-center of the state and is heavily agriculturally based, especially in citrus. Lakeland is the home to Legoland Florida, and is also the location of Publix Supermarket headquarters. Each year the Detroit Tigers host spring training at Joker Marchant Stadium. Lakeland recently welcomed Florida Polytechnic University, the newest member of the State University System.

The Lakeland Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show low levels of growth in most of the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow moderately at 5.2 percent annually, while the real per capita income level will average $35,200, the lowest of the twelve MSAs. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.3 percent, and the average annual wage level is expected to be at $46,200. Population growth is expected to average 1.1 percent annually. Gross Metro Product will be at an average level of 18,004.63 million dollars.

QUICK FACTS:

• Population estimate of 623,009 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 278,776 in July 2015 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

Employment growth is expected to average 1.8 percent annually. The unemployment rate for the metro will average 5.9 percent, the third highest of the twelve forecasted MSAs.

• Lakeland Regional Medical Center – 4,540

The Construction and Mining sector is expected to be the fastest growing sector in the area, averaging 5.3 percent annual growth. This is followed by the Professional and Business Services sector averaging 2.8 percent annual growth, and the Educational and Health Services sector averaging 2.4 percent. The Federal Government sector, Financial Services sector, and Other Services sector will experience declines with average annual growth rates of -1.4, -0.3 and -0.4 percent, respectively.

• GEICO – 2,300

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES

• GC Services – 1,000

Harry’s, a longtime staple to E. Main St. in Lakeland, closes; it’s future is unclear

• An unemployment rate of 6.6% as of July 2015, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 18,488 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 6,644 • City of Lakeland – 2,600 • Watson Clinic – 1,600 • Rooms To Go – 900

• Saddle Creek Logistics – 625

• Stryker Sustainability Solutions – 600 Source: Lakeland Economic Development Council

• Harry’s Restaurant has been in the area for approximately 30 years, while the building itself has been there since the 1950s. Harry’s has been closed with no news of its future as of now. • This isn’t the first time Harry’s has been closed down; After Doug and Wanda Jowais bought the property, it had been shut down within three years. About two months later, the property was taken over again by Paul Messner and Earl Lehigh and was in business until this July. • Sandy Jordan, a co-manager of the property, believes that this event exemplifies the struggle

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

45


L akelan d

various other tenants have had with their businesses on Main Street east of downtown. Source: Lakeland Ledger, August 17, 2015 Lakeland Regional Health Purchase of Land Complete

• Lakeland Regional Health has acquired 100 acres of land, located about three miles from Bartow Regional Medical Center and about 4 miles from a medical building. • The $7.5 million property acquisition depended upon approval of Silver Capital Florida’s Silver Oaks project. After the project was approved, Lakeland Regional Health could finally go about purchasing the land.

• Lakeland Regional Health has tentative plans to open an emergency department, three medical office buildings, and a branch of their cancer center.

• The center will collaborate with residents in the area to determine demand in order to plan their order of construction. Source: Lakeland Ledger, July 23, 2015 New housing construction grows in Polk County

• The housing construction market in Polk County continues to see gains, with growth reportedly outpacing the national growth rate in July.

• A total of 241 single-family housing permits were issued in July, seeing a 10.5% increase in the market over the course of one year. Polk’s current annual pace is about 2,700 permits, which falls slightly short of keeping up with local population growth. • Jim Farrell, an assistant professor of finance and economics at Florida Southern College business school, stated, “Overall, this continues to be a positive signal that the market has stabilized and the improvements are a result of growth and demand.” Source: Lakeland Ledger, August 18, 2015

46

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2015

Walmart to Be Tenant of New Polk Warehouse Complex

• Wal-Mart plans to be the tenant of a new 188-acre warehouse complex, set to be complete by the end of 2016. The complex will include two 1-millionsquare-foot warehouses. • Wal-Mart plans to use this distribution center for the fulfillment of online orders, competing with the Amazon warehouse that opened in Lakeland within this past year. The new complex’s location was favored due to a close proximity to a Federal Express facility currently under construction, allowing for efficient fulfillment of online orders. • The Polk County Commission is currently considering a 10-year, $12.4 million property tax break due to Wal-Mart’s plan to invest $208.6 million in the property as well as create 625 new jobs for the area.

Source: Lakeland Ledger, July 6, 2015


L akelan d Lakeland MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

Florida & Lakeland Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

2.5

19000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

18000.0

16000.0 15000.0 14000.0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 FL Unemployment Rate Lakeland Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

210.0 200.0 190.0 180.0 170.0

2

Lakeland Real Gross Metro Product

13000.0

Lakeland Payroll Employment 220.0

1.5

17000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

1

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Lakeland Payroll Employment

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Real Gross Metro Product

Lakeland Real Personal Income 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

(percent change year ago)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

47


L akelan d

Annual Outlook for Lakeland, FL

September 2015

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

19.9 5.9 7.7 12.2 19.8 5.1 32.8 32.7 39.8 2.1

21.3 7.2 7.7 13.5 20.6 4.4 34.9 33.8 40.5 1.7

20.7 -2.6 8.0 12.7 19.8 -4.0 33.6 32.1 41.3 1.9

21.4 3.4 8.3 13.1 20.2 2.1 34.3 32.4 41.9 1.5

22.4 4.4 8.7 13.7 20.8 3.0 35.2 32.8 42.8 2.1

23.6 5.3 9.2 14.4 21.9 5.0 36.6 34.0 43.9 2.6

24.7 4.8 9.6 15.0 22.6 3.3 38.0 34.8 45.4 3.6

26.0 5.5 10.1 15.9 23.4 3.6 39.7 35.6 46.9 3.3

27.4 5.4 10.6 16.9 24.2 3.3 41.4 36.4 48.7 3.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 191.1 190.0 192.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.4 -0.6 1.4 Manufacturing 14.2 14.2 14.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.3 -0.1 2.9 Nonmanufacturing 176.9 175.8 178.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.3 -0.6 1.3 Construction & Mining 11.0 10.4 10.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -8.8 -5.9 -1.3 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 44.9 45.9 47.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.0 2.3 2.5 Wholesale Trade 8.7 9.0 9.2 Retail Trade 24.2 24.5 24.6 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 12.0 12.5 13.2 Information 1.8 1.6 1.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -7.0 -6.7 -3.0 Financial Activities 11.8 11.6 11.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.7 -1.5 -1.4 Prof & Business Services 25.7 24.3 25.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.3 -5.4 4.5 Educ & Health Services 29.2 29.6 29.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.5 1.7 -0.9 Leisure & Hospitality 16.8 17.8 18.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.3 6.0 6.2 Other Services 5.8 5.4 5.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.5 -7.0 -2.0 Federal Government 1.6 1.2 1.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 15.8 -24.6 -7.6 State & Local Government 28.4 27.9 27.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.3 -1.7 -1.2

197.4 2.5 15.9 8.8 181.5 2.0 10.9 6.8 48.1 2.2 9.4 25.4 13.3 1.6 -1.5 11.6 1.7 26.0 2.4 30.1 2.3 19.6 4.0 5.3 0.2 1.1 -3.7 27.2 -1.5

201.6 2.1 16.4 3.3 185.2 2.0 11.3 3.7 49.3 2.5 9.4 26.6 13.3 1.6 2.2 11.7 0.9 27.2 4.5 30.5 1.4 20.6 4.9 5.6 5.5 1.0 -6.2 26.3 -3.2

207.5 2.9 16.8 2.1 190.7 3.0 11.7 3.0 51.4 4.2 9.7 28.1 13.6 1.6 1.8 11.8 0.6 28.1 3.3 31.9 4.7 21.3 3.3 5.6 -0.8 1.0 -0.5 26.4 0.3

210.8 1.6 16.9 1.1 193.9 1.7 12.5 7.5 51.9 0.9 9.9 28.1 13.8 1.6 -1.1 11.8 0.3 28.7 2.2 32.8 2.7 21.5 0.7 5.6 0.4 1.0 -1.3 26.5 0.4

214.1 1.6 17.2 1.3 197.0 1.6 13.4 7.1 52.3 0.8 10.1 27.9 14.3 1.7 3.0 11.7 -0.8 29.8 3.9 33.2 1.3 21.5 0.2 5.6 -0.6 1.0 -1.9 26.8 1.0

216.3 1.0 17.3 1.1 199.0 1.0 13.9 3.7 52.6 0.7 10.3 27.7 14.6 1.7 -0.8 11.6 -1.2 30.3 1.7 33.5 1.0 21.7 1.1 5.5 -0.6 0.9 -1.8 27.1 1.0

624.8 1.3 279.2 0.7 8.3 1941.9 1914.2 28

635.7 1.7 281.3 0.8 7.1 2538.4 2533.1 5

643.8 1.3 280.7 -0.2 6.3 2761.0 2681.2 80

649.9 0.9 286.6 2.1 5.9 3769.2 3383.0 386

656.5 1.0 292.6 2.1 5.7 4641.7 3944.9 697

663.3 1.0 297.9 1.8 5.7 4930.9 4117.9 813

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

48

604.4 0.9 278.5 2.1 12.1 1228.7 1172.8 56

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2015

610.5 1.0 276.9 -0.6 11.3 1117.3 1061.9 55

616.8 1.0 277.4 0.2 9.7 1452.6 1399.5 53


L akelan d

Quarterly Outlook for Lakeland, FL

September 2015

2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

23.8 5.7 9.2 14.6

24 5.3 9.3 14.6

24.2 5 9.5 14.8

24.5 4.7 9.6 14.9

24.8 4.4 9.7 15.1

25.2 5 9.8 15.3

25.5 5.3 9.9 15.6

25.9 5.6 10.1 15.8

26.2 5.7 10.2 16

26.6 5.6 10.3 16.3

26.9 5.6 10.4 16.6

27.3 5.4 10.5 16.8

27.6 5.3 10.7 16.9

27.9 5.1 10.8 17.1

22 5.4

22.2 5

22.4 3.7

22.5 3.4

22.7 3

22.9 3.2

23.1 3.4

23.3 3.8

23.5 3.7

23.7 3.5

23.9 3.5

24.1 3.4

24.2 3.2

24.4 3.1

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

36.8 34.1

37.1 34.3

37.4 34.5

37.7 34.6

38.1 34.8

38.6 35.1

39 35.3

39.5 35.6

39.9 35.7

40.3 35.9

40.8 36.2

41.2 36.4

41.6 36.5

41.9 36.7

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

43.9 3

44.4 2.9

44.9 3.1

45.3 3.8

45.6 3.9

46 3.6

46.4 3.4

46.7 3.3

47.1 3.3

47.5 3.3

48 3.5

48.4 3.6

48.9 3.7

49.4 3.9

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

207.9 2.8

208.9 2.7

209.5 1.7

210.2 1.5

211.2 1.6

212.3 1.6

213.2 1.7

213.9 1.8

214.5 1.5

215 1.3

215.4 1.1

216.1 1

216.7 1.1

216.9 0.9

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

16.8 2.2

16.8 2.3

16.8 0.8

16.9 1

17 1.3

17 1.3

17.1 1.4

17.1 1.4

17.2 1.2

17.2 1.1

17.3 1.1

17.3 1.1

17.4 1

17.4 1

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

191.1 2.9

192.1 2.7

192.7 1.8

193.3 1.5

194.2 1.6

195.3 1.7

196.1 1.8

196.8 1.8

197.3 1.6

197.7 1.3

198.1 1

198.8 1

199.4 1.1

199.5 0.9

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

11.7 2

11.8 3.3

12.1 4.7

12.4 7

12.7 8.6

13 9.7

13.2 9

13.3 7.9

13.5 6.5

13.6 5.2

13.7 4.2

13.9 3.9

14 3.7

14.1 3.1

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

51.6 3.9

51.8 4.4

51.8 2

51.8 0.9

51.8 0.6

52 0.3

52.1 0.7

52.2 0.9

52.3 1

52.5 0.9

52.5 0.7

52.6 0.7

52.7 0.7

52.7 0.4

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

9.7 28.3 13.5

9.8 28.4 13.6

9.8 28.3 13.7

9.9 28.2 13.8

9.9 28.1 13.9

10 28 14

10 28 14.1

10.1 27.9 14.2

10.1 27.9 14.3

10.2 27.8 14.5

10.3 27.7 14.5

10.3 27.7 14.6

10.3 27.8 14.7

10.3 27.7 14.7

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.6 2.4

1.6 0.7

1.6 1.3

1.6 -2

1.6 -1.4

1.6 -2.3

1.7 1.7

1.7 3.4

1.7 3.5

1.7 3.4

1.7 0

1.7 -1.6

1.7 -0.8

1.7 -0.7

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

11.8 0.4

11.9 1.2

11.9 1.1

11.8 0.4

11.8 0.1

11.8 -0.3

11.8 -0.6

11.8 -0.7

11.7 -0.7

11.7 -1.1

11.6 -1.3

11.6 -1.3

11.6 -1.2

11.6 -1.2

28 2

28.1 0.9

28.3 0.7

28.5 1.4

28.8 2.8

29.2 3.9

29.6 4.4

29.8 4.7

29.9 3.9

30 2.8

30.2 1.9

30.3 1.7

30.4 1.8

30.5 1.4

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

32.2 5.2

32.4 5.8

32.5 3.5

32.7 2.9

32.9 2.3

33.1 2.2

33.1 1.9

33.2 1.6

33.3 1

33.3 0.7

33.4 0.8

33.5 0.8

33.6 1.1

33.7 1.2

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

21.3 3.4

21.5 1.7

21.5 1.6

21.5 1

21.4 0.6

21.4 -0.2

21.4 -0.4

21.4 -0.1

21.5 0.3

21.6 0.8

21.6 0.9

21.7 1.2

21.8 1.2

21.8 1.2

5.6 0.9

5.6 0

5.6 0.3

5.6 0.6

5.6 0.6

5.6 0.2

5.6 -0.1

5.6 -0.6

5.5 -0.8

5.5 -1

5.5 -0.9

5.5 -0.7

5.5 -0.5

5.5 -0.4

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1 -0.7

1 -1.2

1 -1.5

1 -1.1

1 -1.1

1 -1.6

1 -1.8

1 -1.9

1 -1.9

1 -1.9

1 -1.9

0.9 -1.9

0.9 -1.8

0.9 -1.7

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

26.4 0.9

26.4 0.2

26.5 0.1

26.5 0.4

26.5 0.6

26.6 0.7

26.7 0.9

26.8 1

26.8 1

26.9 1.1

27 1.1

27 1.1

27.1 1

27.1 1

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

644.8 1.2

646.2 1.1

647.6 1

649.1 0.9

650.7 0.9

652.2 0.9

653.9 1

655.7 1

657.4 1

659.2 1.1

660.9 1.1

662.5 1

664.2 1

665.7 1

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

280.4 -0.3

282.2 0

284.1 1.1

285.8 2.4

287.5 2.5

289 2.4

290.4 2.2

291.9 2.1

293.5 2.1

294.8 2

296 1.9

297.3 1.8

298.6 1.7

299.7 1.7

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

6.2

6.1

6

5.9

5.8

5.7

5.7

5.7

5.7

5.7

5.7

5.7

5.7

5.7

2927 2828 99

3129 2964 166

3350 3113 237

3583 3252 331

3878 3445 433

4265 3722 543

4493 3870 623

4615 3931 684

4698 3974 723

4761 4004 757

4850 4081 769

4927 4146 781

4974 4140 834

4973 4105 868

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

49


M iami – F o r t L au d e r d ale – P ompano B each

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–Pompano Beach MSA is comprised of Miami-Dade County, Broward County, and Palm Beach County. Located on the southeast coast of Florida, Miami is home to the Port of Miami, the largest cruise ship port in the world and one of nation’s busiest cargo ports. Miami is also home to many sports teams including the Miami Dolphins, the Miami Heat, the Florida Marlins and the Florida Panthers, as well as many institutions of higher education including the University of Miami and Florida International University.

The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–Pompano Beach area is expected to show mixed levels of growth in the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow an average of 5.2 percent annually. The average real per capita income level of $46,400 is the second highest in the areas studied. Average annual wage growth will be 3.2 percent. The average annual wage level is expected to be $56,100, the highest of the studied areas. Miami is expected to average a population growth of 1.1 percent each year. The area has the highest Gross Metro Product of the MSAs studied at an average level of 295,388.86 million dollars.

QUICK FACTS:

• Metro area population estimate of 5,828,191 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• Miami-Dade County population estimate of 2,617,176 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

Employment is expected to grow at an average rate of 2.0 percent each year, while unemployment is expected to be moderate at an average rate of 5.4 percent.

• Broward County population estimate of 1,838,844 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

Miami’s fastest growing sector is expected to be the Construction and Mining sector at an average of 6.6 percent annually, followed by the Professional and Business Services sector at 3.8 percent each year. The Federal Government sector is expected to experience a decline with an average annual growth rate of -0.7 percent.

• Civilian labor force of 2,975,201 in July 2015 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES

• Palm Beach County population estimate of 1,372,171 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• An unemployment rate of 5.7% as of July 2015, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 169,461 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: • • • • • • • • • • •

Miami-Dade County Public School – 48,571 Miami-Dade County – 29,000 Federal Government – 19,500 Florida State Government – 17,100 University of Miami – 16,000 Baptist Health South Florida – 13,376 Jackson Health System – 12,571 Publix Super Markets – 10,800 American Airlines – 9,000 Florida International University – 8,000 Miami-Dade College – 6,200

Source: The Beacon Council 50

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2015

Business in the new Fort Lauderdale goes beyond beaches and boats

• Fort Lauderdale is no longer defined by beaches, yachting clubs, and retirees alone. Over the past 20 years, the city has evolved to be dynamic and diverse, with plenty of opportunities for burgeoning businesses. • In the past five years alone, over 120 companies have relocated to Fort Lauderdale and the surrounding area with the aid of the Greater Fort Lauderdale Alliance, an organization promoting investment and job creation in Broward County.

• With renewed investments in public transportation and new residential and commercial buildings, downtown Fort Lauderdale has transformed into a friendly, urban environment for businesses. Source: Miami Herald, August 30, 2015


M iami – F o r t L au d e r d ale – P ompano B each

Unemployment rate drops in Miami-Dade, ticks up in Broward

• The Miami-Dade County unemployment rate fell in July 2015 as the economy continues to grow, though some economists believe that unemployment won’t fall much further. • The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate dropped to 6.1% in July for Miami-Dade, down from 6.7% in July 2014. Broward County actually saw an increase from 5.1% in June of this year, to 5.2% in July, but this still remains an improvement from 6.3% seen in July 2014. • This decline in unemployment may have to do with the number of people actively looking for work, as a larger the labor force could push up the unemployment rate. However, the Miami-Dade numbers indicate that the number of people with jobs also fell, and is now down to 1.22 million.

Source: Miami Herald, August 21, 2015 UM biotech park seeking $10 million from the county to expand • The University of Miami Life Science and Technology Park is seeking to expand. The University and its’ partner developer, Wexford Miami LLC, are asking for $10 million in taxpayer money from Miami-Dade to help complete the project.

• Beacon Council released their plan for an online career portal for job seekers and employers. It’s a part of the 2012 One Community One Goal initiative that lays out seven key industries for economic growth in South Florida.

• The fields indicated are “middle-skill” jobs that pay living wages in industries like aviation, banking and finance, creative design, information technology, hospitality and tourism, life sciences and healthcare, and trade and logistics. Source: Miami Herald, July 22, 2015 South Florida renters stuck in aftermath of real estate crisis • Although the South Florida foreclosure rate has decreased by 50 percent from 2014 to 2015, it’s still well above the national average.

• Moody’s Analytics estimates that one in 87 homes in the Miami-Dade area are in foreclosure as of the first quarter of 2015. • And, according to Zillow.com, about 16 percent of all homes in the Miami Metro Statistical Area are underwater. Source: Miami Herald, September 8, 2015

• As a direct result of the new complex, Wexford Miami predicts over 450 new jobs will be created by 2022. • Jobs with biotech firms tend to be well paying and environmentally friendly, but local officials are still wary, as these firms don’t usually hire large amounts of people. Source: Miami Herald, August 27, 2015 Beacon Council outlines plans for local job development

• In its July meeting, Miami-Dade’s economic development agency, Beacon Council, stressed the need to keep diversifying the South Florida economy. Such diversification will guard against Miami falling into another recession. Institute for Economic Competitiveness

51


M iami – F o r t L au d e r d ale – P ompano B each Miami - Fort Lauderdale - Pompano Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Miami Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

10.0%

0.8

1.6

1.8

Miami Real Gross Metro Product 320000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

300000.0

220000.0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 FL Unemployment Rate Miami Unemployment Rate

200000.0

(Thousands)

2600.0 2500.0 2400.0 2300.0 2200.0 2100.0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Miami Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2015

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Real Gross Metro Product

Miami Real Personal Income

Miami Payroll Employment

52

1.4

240000.0

4.0%

2000.0

1.2

260000.0

6.0%

2700.0

1

280000.0

8.0%

2.0%

0.6

8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0%

(percent change year ago)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Real Personal Income


M iami – F o r t L au d e r d ale – P ompano B each

Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL

September 2015

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

231.9 3.6 107.0 124.9 230.8 2.7 41.4 41.2 48.4 1.6

246.9 6.5 110.9 136.0 239.2 3.7 43.2 41.9 49.3 1.9

258.3 4.6 115.8 142.5 246.7 3.1 44.5 42.5 50.3 2.1

264.5 2.4 120.1 144.3 249.5 1.1 45.0 42.5 50.8 1.0

276.8 4.7 127.0 149.9 257.7 3.3 46.6 43.4 52.0 2.3

290.6 5.0 133.8 156.8 269.8 4.7 48.4 44.9 53.3 2.6

304.4 4.7 140.9 163.4 278.6 3.3 50.1 45.9 55.2 3.4

321.4 5.6 148.3 173.1 288.8 3.6 52.3 47.0 56.9 3.2

338.8 5.4 155.8 183.0 298.3 3.3 54.5 48.0 59.0 3.6

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 2194.8 2233.7 2286.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.8 1.8 2.4 Manufacturing 76.0 76.3 77.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.6 0.4 1.0 Nonmanufacturing 2118.8 2157.4 2209.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.6 1.8 2.4 Construction & Mining 89.0 85.6 87.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -13.5 -3.8 1.7 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 505.0 520.3 537.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.2 3.0 3.2 Wholesale Trade 132.7 134.5 139.1 Retail Trade 283.9 294.8 303.7 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 88.4 91.0 94.2 Information 43.6 44.1 45.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.0 1.1 2.5 Financial Activities 153.3 156.3 161.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.9 2.0 3.2 Prof & Business Services 325.7 339.3 353.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 4.2 4.0 Educ & Health Services 335.7 340.9 341.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 1.5 0.2 Leisure & Hospitality 252.2 262.0 275.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6 3.9 5.2 Other Services 101.7 103.8 108.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.3 2.2 4.5 Federal Government 36.7 34.1 33.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 7.6 -7.0 -1.0 State & Local Government 276.0 270.9 266.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.0 -1.8 -1.7

2349.5 2.7 77.8 1.0 2271.7 2.8 93.4 7.3 550.5 2.5 140.7 313.1 96.7 46.4 2.7 164.6 2.0 371.2 5.1 346.6 1.4 286.5 3.9 111.8 3.0 33.5 -0.8 267.1 0.3

2427.8 3.3 80.9 3.9 2346.9 3.3 102.7 9.9 565.8 2.8 143.2 323.0 99.6 47.9 3.2 169.2 2.8 389.2 4.9 356.7 2.9 297.4 3.8 117.4 5.0 33.1 -1.3 267.5 0.1

2494.4 2.7 81.3 0.5 2413.1 2.8 107.7 4.9 579.8 2.5 145.9 331.7 102.2 48.5 1.1 174.4 3.1 404.1 3.8 368.1 3.2 309.7 4.1 121.7 3.6 33.2 0.4 265.9 -0.6

2540.9 1.9 81.2 -0.1 2459.7 1.9 115.4 7.2 585.0 0.9 148.1 330.7 106.2 47.7 -1.5 175.6 0.7 420.4 4.0 377.4 2.5 316.1 2.1 123.1 1.2 33.1 -0.4 266.0 0.0

2591.1 2.0 81.7 0.7 2509.4 2.0 125.4 8.7 591.4 1.1 151.4 329.6 110.4 49.1 2.8 174.8 -0.4 441.0 4.9 384.0 1.7 318.9 0.9 123.1 0.0 32.6 -1.4 269.1 1.2

2627.2 1.4 82.1 0.5 2545.1 1.4 132.4 5.6 597.3 1.0 154.4 329.4 113.5 48.8 -0.5 173.2 -1.0 452.4 2.6 388.5 1.2 324.6 1.8 123.3 0.2 32.2 -1.4 272.3 1.2

5871.2 1.3 2940.8 1.0 7.2 17200.3 6265.3 10935

5938.5 1.1 3002.9 2.1 6.3 14434.7 5879.5 8555

6007.5 1.2 2994.6 -0.3 5.6 21368.6 7775.2 13593

6075.6 1.1 3045.2 1.7 5.4 29765.5 13128.2 16637

6143.8 1.1 3107.9 2.1 5.3 33807.9 17399.3 16409

6214.6 1.2 3166.0 1.9 5.3 35904.7 18616.0 17289

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5602.1 1.5 2808.1 1.5 10.8 5055.7 3278.1 1778

5714.6 2.0 2859.2 1.8 9.6 7314.3 4152.9 3161

5798.0 1.5 2910.5 1.8 8.3 11446.0 5301.8 6144

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

53


M iami – F o r t L au d e r d ale – P ompano B each

Quarterly Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL

September 2015

2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

293.2 5.4 134.2 159

295.4 4.7 136.4 158.9

299.1 4.8 138.3 160.8

302.2 4.7 140 162.2

306 4.4 141.7 164.3

310.1 5 143.7 166.4

315 5.3 145.7 169.3

319.3 5.7 147.5 171.8

323.6 5.7 149.2 174.4

327.9 5.8 151 176.9

332.8 5.6 152.8 179.9

336.8 5.5 154.8 182

340.8 5.3 156.7 184

344.8 5.1 158.7 186.1

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

271.3 5.1

273.5 4.4

275.7 3.5

277.1 3.4

279.5 3

282.3 3.2

285.2 3.4

287.6 3.8

290 3.8

292.4 3.6

295.3 3.5

297.4 3.4

299.4 3.2

301.4 3.1

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

48.7 45.1

49 45.3

49.4 45.6

49.8 45.7

50.3 45.9

50.8 46.3

51.5 46.6

52 46.9

52.6 47.1

53.2 47.4

53.8 47.7

54.3 47.9

54.8 48.1

55.2 48.3

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

53.4 3

54 2.9

54.5 3

55 3.7

55.4 3.7

55.8 3.3

56.2 3.2

56.7 3.1

57.2 3.2

57.6 3.3

58.2 3.4

58.7 3.5

59.2 3.6

59.8 3.8

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

2498 2.5

2512.4 2

2523 1.8

2533.4 1.8

2545.5 1.9

2561.6 2

2575.9 2.1

2587.2 2.1

2595.9 2

2605.4 1.7

2613.7 1.5

2623.5 1.4

2633.3 1.4

2638.3 1.3

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

80.8 -0.4

80.8 -1.1

80.9 -1.1

81 -0.7

81.3 0.6

81.4 0.8

81.5 0.8

81.6 0.7

81.8 0.6

81.9 0.6

82 0.5

82.1 0.6

82.2 0.5

82.3 0.4

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

2417.2 2.6

2431.6 2.1

2442 1.9

2452.4 1.9

2464.1 1.9

2480.2 2

2494.3 2.1

2505.6 2.2

2514.1 2

2523.5 1.7

2531.7 1.5

2541.4 1.4

2551.1 1.5

2556.1 1.3

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

107.1 3.4

108.6 1.8

111.4 3.4

114.1 6.3

116.5 8.7

119.6 10.1

122 9.5

124.4 9

126.5 8.6

128.8 7.7

130.3 6.8

131.8 6

133.3 5.3

134.3 4.3

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

580.1 1.9

583.5 2.1

583.5 1

584.1 1.1

585.1 0.9

587.2 0.6

589 0.9

590.7 1.1

592.2 1.2

593.8 1.1

595.1 1

596.9 1

598.6 1.1

598.6 0.8

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

146.1 331.2 102.8

146.8 332.9 103.8

147.2 331.6 104.7

147.7 330.8 105.6

148.2 330.3 106.6

149.3 330.1 107.8

150.1 329.9 108.9

150.9 329.8 109.9

151.7 329.6 110.8

152.8 329.2 111.8

153.5 329 112.6

154.2 329.3 113.4

154.8 330 113.8

155.2 329.3 114

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

48.5 0.5

48.6 0.8

48.1 -0.3

48 -1

47.5 -1.9

47.3 -2.9

48.7 1.3

49.5 3.2

49.1 3.4

48.9 3.6

48.8 0.2

48.8 -1.3

48.9 -0.4

48.8 -0.3

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

174.5 3

175.4 1.8

175.8 1.5

175.6 0.6

175.3 0.5

175.6 0.1

175.4 -0.2

175.1 -0.3

174.6 -0.4

174.1 -0.8

173.7 -1

173.3 -1

173 -0.9

172.6 -0.9

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

406.4 3.7

408.6 3

413 3.5

416.7 3.6

422.1 3.9

429.7 5.2

436.5 5.7

440.2 5.6

442.3 4.8

445.2 3.6

448.5 2.7

451.6 2.6

454.2 2.7

455.4 2.3

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

368.4 2.9

371.1 1.9

373 1.9

376.1 2.5

378.9 2.9

381.5 2.8

382.1 2.5

383.7 2

384.5 1.5

385.4 1

386.5 1.1

387.8 1.1

389.3 1.2

390.5 1.3

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

312.3 4.6

315.1 4.2

316.1 4.1

315.8 2.6

316.2 1.3

316.4 0.4

316.9 0.2

317.7 0.6

319.7 1.1

321.4 1.6

322.2 1.7

323.8 1.9

325.5 1.8

326.9 1.7

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

122.1 3.5

122.6 2.6

122.9 1.4

123.1 2

123.2 0.9

123.2 0.5

123.2 0.2

123.1 0

123.1 -0.1

123 -0.1

123.1 0

123.2 0.1

123.4 0.2

123.5 0.4

33.2 0.9

33.2 -0.2

33.2 0

33.1 0

33 -0.5

32.9 -1

32.8 -1.3

32.7 -1.4

32.6 -1.4

32.4 -1.4

32.3 -1.4

32.2 -1.5

32.1 -1.4

32 -1.3

264.7 -0.8

264.9 -0.8

265 -0.8

265.7 -0.5

266.2 0.6

266.9 0.7

267.8 1

268.6 1.1

269.5 1.2

270.4 1.3

271.2 1.3

272 1.3

272.7 1.2

273.4 1.1

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

6016.3 1.2

6033.7 1.2

6050.8 1.2

6067.3 1.1

6083.9 1.1

6100.5 1.1

6117.7 1.1

6135 1.1

6152.4 1.1

6170 1.1

6187.6 1.1

6205.5 1.1

6223.6 1.2

6241.7 1.2

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2985.7 -0.8

3002.1 -0.6

3020.5 0.3

3036.8 2

3053.8 2.3

3069.8 2.3

3085.1 2.1

3099.8 2.1

3116.2 2

3130.7 2

3144.6 1.9

3158.2 1.9

3173.5 1.8

3187.7 1.8

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

54

5.5

5.5

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.3

5.3

5.3

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.3

5.3

5.2

23228 8263 14965

25484 9521 15964

27357 10890 16467

28952 12275 16677

30427 13807 16620

32326 15541 16785

33162 16663 16498

33688 17321 16367

33944 17681 16263

34438 17932 16506

35179 18369 16809

35472 18712 16761

36168 18726 17442

36800 18657 18143

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2015


N aples - M a r co I slan d

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Naples–Marco Island MSA is comprised of Collier County only. Located on the southwest coast of Florida it is notable for numerous recreation and leisure activities. This region is sometimes referred to as the “Crown Jewel of Southwest Florida”.

The Naples–Marco Island Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show strong growth in most of the economic indicators relative to the other MSAs studied. The metro area shows the highest personal income growth among the studied MSAs at an average of 6.6 percent. The real per capita income level, which is expected to average $66,000, is also the highest of the MSAs. Average annual wage will be at a level of $53,600. The average annual wage is expected to grow at a rate of 3.4 percent. Population growth will average 2.5 percent, the highest in the studied areas, and the Gross Metro Product will average 17,119.63 million dollars.

QUICK FACTS:

• Population estimate of 339,642 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • A civilian labor force of 157,772 in July 2015 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

• An unemployment rate of 5.9% as of July 2015, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 9,362 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database).

Employment growth is expected to average 3.0 percent each year, the second highest of the MSAs. The metro will see an average unemployment rate of 5.6 percent.

• The Ritz-Carlton, Naples – 1,110

The Construction and Mining sector represents Naples’ fastest growing sector, growing at an average rate of 6.6 percent each year. The Professional and Business Services sector will follow with an average growth rate of 4.4 percent. The Federal Government sector growth will be negative at -0.2 percent.

• Arthrex, Inc – 1,056

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES

TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Naples Community Hospital – 4,000 • Gargiulo, Inc. – 1,110

• Collier County Sheriff’s Office – 1,029 • Hometown Inspection Svc. – 900 • Publix – 800

• Marriott – 700

• Naples Grande Beach Resort – 700 • Downing Frye Realty – 550

Source: Collier Business & Economic Development

Forbes ranks Naples best in the nation for job growth

• Forbes Magazine has ranked Naples as the premier city in the U.S. for forecasted job growth, with expected growth of 4.6% through 2017.

• Such fast-paced growth compared to the rest of the U.S. economy is due to the influx of retirees moving south, creating opportunities in construction, retail, and healthcare. • According to Forbes, retiring baby boomers are one of the fastest growing populations in Southwest Florida, and the coastal Florida metro areas are raking in the benefits. Source: Naples Herald, July 31, 2015 Increase in Collier building permits reflects balanced

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

55


N aples - M a r co I slan d

growth over time

• Construction demand continues to increase in Collier County as permits issued for new homes, apartments, and retail spaces surge from March 2015 to May 2015. Around 90 percent of all permits were issued for new single-family homes, totaling almost 230 per month in 2015.

• Kathy Curatolo, executive director of the Collier Building Industry Association, says, “It’s not a huge increase, but it shows balanced growth…which goes hand in hand with a more stable economy.” • To keep up with increasing construction demand, Collier County has set aside $1.2 million to hire more building planners and inspectors.

Source: Naples Daily News, July 6, 2015 Bouncing stock market has big impact on Southwest Florida real estate

• Southwest Florida investors are shaken up from the turbulence of stock market volatility. Some economists are now wondering whether or not it will affect the fast-track housing market of Lee and Collier counties. • Since the Southwest Florida economy depends on vacation home sales and investment properties, a fluctuating stock market is definitely a bad sign. If an investor can’t be confident about a potential investment, the purchase of these properties becomes unlikely. • In the Naples-Marco Island metro area, almost 50 percent of all home sales are investments or vacation homes.

Source: Naples Daily News, August 31, 2015 Lee, Collier population could reach 1.5 million by 2040, report says

• A report by the Regional Economic Research Institute at Florida Gulf Coast University projects that the population of Lee and Collier Counties could reach 1.5 million people in the next 25 years. • This increase in population coincides with other

56

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2015

studies, indicating the area as a future ‘hotbed’ for economic activity. According to Forbes, both Naples and the Cape Coral-Fort Myers area rank in the top 10 fastest growing metro areas in the country.

• The report also found that the area is experiencing a myriad of other positive economic indicators, including increasing tourist tax revenues, passenger traffic at airports, and rising home prices. Source: Naples Herald, September 4, 2015 Lots of help wanted in Naples

• With Naples projected to be the top destination in the U.S. for job growth through 2017, many businesses are looking for workers.

• Although Forbes has forecasted 4.6% job growth for Naples due to incoming retirees, it is not clear that the Naples area will be able to keep up. Already, labor shortages are holding the economy back from its full potential in key areas, including healthcare and construction. • With 5.3% unemployment, Naples is considered to be near full employment. Over this past year, over 6,000 people have been hired, but there may not be enough workers to continue this trend. Source: Business Observer, August 14, 2015


N aples - M a r co I slan d Naples - Marco Island MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Naples Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

0.8

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

20000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

16000.0 14000.0 12000.0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 FL Unemployment Rate Naples Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

140.0 130.0 120.0 110.0 100.0 90.0

1.2

Naples Real Gross Metro Product

10000.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Naples Payroll Employment

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Real Gross Metro Product

Naples Real Personal Income

Naples Payroll Employment 150.0

1

18000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

0.6

21.0% 18.0% 15.0% 12.0% 9.0% 6.0% 3.0% 0.0% -3.0% -6.0% -9.0% -12.0% -15.0% -18.0%

(percent change year ago)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

57


N aples - M a r co I slan d

Annual Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL

September 2015

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

18.2 4.4 5.1 13.1 18.1 3.5 56.4 56.1 45.8 1.6

19.7 7.9 5.3 14.4 19.1 5.0 59.8 58.0 45.9 0.4

21.6 10.0 5.6 16.1 20.7 8.4 64.8 61.9 46.6 1.5

22.0 1.9 6.0 16.1 20.8 0.6 64.6 60.9 48.2 3.4

23.2 5.2 6.5 16.7 21.6 3.8 66.2 61.7 49.4 2.5

24.6 6.3 6.9 17.7 22.9 6.0 68.8 63.9 50.8 2.7

26.1 5.9 7.3 18.7 23.9 4.5 71.0 65.0 52.6 3.6

28.0 7.2 7.8 20.2 25.1 5.2 74.3 66.7 54.4 3.4

29.9 7.1 8.3 21.7 26.4 5.0 77.6 68.3 56.4 3.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 111.2 114.9 118.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.1 3.3 3.3 Manufacturing 2.5 2.5 2.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.7 1.3 8.1 Nonmanufacturing 108.7 112.4 116.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.1 3.4 3.2 Construction & Mining 9.1 9.0 9.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -12.9 -1.0 4.5 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 21.3 22.2 22.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.9 4.0 2.6 Wholesale Trade 2.8 2.9 3.0 Retail Trade 17.0 17.9 18.4 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 1.5 1.4 1.4 Information 1.5 1.5 1.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.2 -4.8 -2.2 Financial Activities 6.5 6.5 6.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.1 -1.0 4.3 Prof & Business Services 11.1 12.1 13.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.8 9.3 9.8 Educ & Health Services 17.1 17.9 18.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.0 4.7 0.4 Leisure & Hospitality 21.3 22.6 23.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6 5.9 4.4 Other Services 7.3 7.3 7.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.8 -0.2 2.6 Federal Government 0.8 0.7 0.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 14.7 -10.6 -7.2 State & Local Government 12.7 12.7 12.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.6 0.3 -0.2

123.3 3.9 3.1 13.6 120.3 3.6 10.5 11.7 23.9 5.1 3.4 19.1 1.4 1.5 4.0 7.0 4.2 13.6 1.7 18.3 1.7 24.4 3.7 7.9 6.6 0.6 -7.6 12.5 -1.8

130.2 5.6 3.3 9.6 126.8 5.5 12.1 15.4 25.7 7.3 3.7 20.4 1.5 1.5 -0.6 7.4 5.9 14.5 6.8 18.8 2.6 25.5 4.3 8.4 6.0 0.6 0.0 12.3 -1.0

135.2 3.9 3.5 6.0 131.7 3.8 13.0 7.2 26.8 4.2 3.9 21.2 1.7 1.5 0.7 7.7 3.3 15.3 5.7 19.6 4.4 26.1 2.3 8.7 3.3 0.6 -0.7 12.5 1.1

138.8 2.7 3.6 1.1 135.2 2.7 13.8 6.5 27.3 1.8 4.0 21.5 1.8 1.5 -0.4 7.8 1.2 15.8 3.6 20.3 3.5 26.7 2.2 8.9 1.9 0.6 0.4 12.7 1.4

142.8 2.9 3.6 1.5 139.2 2.9 14.9 7.6 27.8 1.9 4.2 21.7 1.9 1.6 4.6 7.8 1.0 16.7 5.3 20.9 2.8 27.0 1.3 9.0 1.5 0.6 -0.2 13.0 2.5

146.3 2.5 3.7 1.4 142.6 2.5 15.6 5.1 28.3 1.9 4.3 22.0 2.0 1.6 0.8 7.9 0.5 17.2 3.1 21.4 2.5 27.6 2.3 9.1 1.5 0.6 -0.2 13.3 2.5

341.3 2.2 155.9 2.0 7.1 2322.4 1730.5 592

349.7 2.5 161.2 3.4 5.9 3303.8 2421.9 882

357.9 2.3 162.8 1.0 5.4 3865.5 2785.7 1080

367.1 2.6 169.2 3.9 5.5 4421.3 2417.0 2004

376.5 2.6 175.8 3.9 5.7 4953.9 2446.5 2507

385.9 2.5 182.3 3.7 5.7 5265.2 2612.0 2653

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

58

323.4 1.3 145.4 1.8 11.6 1201.9 805.3 397

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2015

328.5 1.6 148.8 2.3 10.2 1216.3 927.6 289

333.9 1.6 152.9 2.8 8.5 1484.2 1283.0 201


N aples - M a r co I slan d

Quarterly Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL

September 2015

2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

24.9 6.6 6.9 18

25.1 6.1 7 18.1

25.5 5.9 7.2 18.3

25.8 5.8 7.3 18.6

26.3 5.6 7.4 18.9

26.7 6.4 7.5 19.2

27.2 6.8 7.6 19.6

27.7 7.3 7.7 20

28.2 7.4 7.9 20.4

28.7 7.4 8 20.7

29.2 7.4 8.1 21.1

29.7 7.2 8.2 21.5

30.2 7 8.4 21.8

30.6 6.7 8.5 22.2

23 6.4

23.2 5.7

23.5 4.6

23.7 4.5

24 4.2

24.3 4.6

24.7 5

25 5.4

25.3 5.4

25.6 5.2

25.9 5.2

26.2 5.1

26.5 4.9

26.8 4.7

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

69.3 64.2

69.5 64.3

70.1 64.6

70.6 64.7

71.3 65.1

72.1 65.6

73 66.1

73.9 66.5

74.7 66.9

75.5 67.3

76.5 67.8

77.3 68.2

78 68.5

78.7 68.8

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

50.8 2.9

51.4 2.9

51.9 2.7

52.4 3.8

52.9 4.1

53.3 3.8

53.7 3.5

54.2 3.3

54.6 3.3

55.1 3.3

55.6 3.5

56.1 3.7

56.7 3.7

57.3 4

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

135.1 3.3

136.3 2.6

137.3 2.1

138.2 2.4

139.3 3.1

140.5 3

141.4 3

142.4 3

143.3 2.8

144.1 2.6

144.8 2.4

145.9 2.5

146.9 2.5

147.6 2.4

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

3.5 4.5

3.6 2.5

3.6 1.1

3.6 0.5

3.6 1.3

3.6 1.4

3.6 1.6

3.6 1.6

3.6 1.4

3.7 1.4

3.7 1.5

3.7 1.4

3.7 1.3

3.7 1.2

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

131.6 3.3

132.8 2.6

133.7 2.1

134.7 2.5

135.7 3.1

136.9 3.1

137.8 3.1

138.8 3.1

139.6 2.9

140.4 2.6

141.2 2.4

142.2 2.5

143.2 2.6

143.9 2.5

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

12.7 4.2

13 2.9

13.3 0

13.6 6

14 9.7

14.3 10.4

14.6 9.4

14.8 8.3

15 7

15.1 5.9

15.3 5.2

15.5 5.2

15.7 5.2

15.9 4.7

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

26.8 3.6

27.1 1.7

27.1 2.2

27.2 2.1

27.3 1.7

27.4 1.3

27.6 1.7

27.7 1.9

27.8 2

27.9 1.9

28.1 1.8

28.2 1.9

28.4 2.1

28.5 1.9

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.9 21.2 1.7

3.9 21.4 1.8

3.9 21.4 1.8

4 21.4 1.8

4 21.5 1.8

4.1 21.5 1.8

4.1 21.6 1.9

4.1 21.7 1.9

4.2 21.7 1.9

4.2 21.8 1.9

4.3 21.9 1.9

4.3 22 2

4.3 22.1 2

4.4 22.1 2

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.5 0.4

1.5 0.2

1.5 -0.7

1.5 -0.2

1.5 0.1

1.5 -0.9

1.5 3.2

1.6 5

1.6 5

1.6 5

1.6 1.6

1.6 -0.1

1.6 0.8

1.6 0.8

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.6 2.1

7.7 2.4

7.7 0.3

7.8 1.1

7.8 1.9

7.8 1.4

7.8 1.1

7.8 1.1

7.9 1.1

7.9 0.6

7.9 0.5

7.9 0.5

7.9 0.5

7.9 0.5

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

15.3 5.2

15.4 3.1

15.6 2.2

15.7 3

15.9 4

16.2 5.2

16.5 5.7

16.6 6

16.8 5.3

16.9 4.2

17 3.3

17.2 3.2

17.3 3.2

17.4 2.9

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

19.7 4.2

19.9 4

20 3.1

20.2 3.3

20.4 3.8

20.6 3.7

20.7 3.4

20.8 3.1

20.9 2.6

21 2.2

21.2 2.4

21.3 2.3

21.5 2.6

21.6 2.7

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

26.3 2.3

26.5 3.3

26.6 4.2

26.6 2

26.7 1.7

26.7 1

26.8 0.8

26.9 1

27.1 1.5

27.3 2

27.4 2.1

27.6 2.4

27.7 2.4

27.9 2.3

8.7 2.2

8.7 1.9

8.8 0.6

8.8 1.9

8.9 2.7

8.9 2.3

9 2

9 1.5

9 1.3

9 1.1

9.1 1.2

9.1 1.4

9.1 1.6

9.2 1.7

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

0.6 -1.8

0.6 -1

0.6 0.2

0.6 0.8

0.6 0.6

0.6 0.1

0.6 -0.1

0.6 -0.2

0.6 -0.2

0.6 -0.2

0.6 -0.2

0.6 -0.2

0.6 -0.1

0.6 -0.1

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

12.4 1.9

12.5 1.3

12.5 0.9

12.6 0.4

12.7 2.1

12.8 2.2

12.9 2.4

12.9 2.5

13 2.5

13.1 2.6

13.2 2.6

13.3 2.5

13.3 2.5

13.4 2.4

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

358.9 2.3

361.3 2.4

363.6 2.5

365.9 2.6

368.4 2.6

370.7 2.6

373 2.6

375.3 2.6

377.7 2.5

380.1 2.5

382.4 2.5

384.7 2.5

387.1 2.5

389.4 2.5

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

163.1 0.8

164.8 1.1

166.6 2.7

168.3 4.4

170 4.3

171.7 4.2

173.3 4

174.9 3.9

176.7 3.9

178.3 3.9

179.8 3.8

181.4 3.7

183.1 3.6

184.7 3.6

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.3

5.4

5.4

5.5

5.5

5.6

5.6

5.6

5.7

5.7

5.7

5.8

5.7

5.7

4011 2869 1142

4207 2699 1508

4398 2546 1851

4400 2401 2000

4354 2298 2056

4533 2422 2111

4773 2429 2344

4920 2411 2510

5018 2455 2563

5104 2491 2613

5208 2569 2639

5218 2624 2594

5284 2633 2651

5351 2622 2729

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

59


O cala

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

Comprised of Marion County only, the Ocala MSA is located northwest of the Orlando area and is in the center of the state. The second largest national forest in Florida, the Ocala National Forest, and Silver Springs are two main outdoor attractions in the area.

The Ocala Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show varying strengths and weaknesses in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to average 6.2 percent annually, the third highest of the twelve studied MSAs. Real per capita income level is the third lowest of the twelve metros at an average of $36,100. Relative to other metro areas, Ocala will have the second lowest average annual wage level at $42,400. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.5 percent, the second highest of the MSAs. The metro has an expected annual average population growth of 1.6 percent. The Gross Metro Product is expected to average 7,793.58 million dollars, which is the lowest of the studied areas.

QUICK FACTS:

• Population estimate of 337,362 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 132,235 in July 2015 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

• An unemployment rate of 6.6% as of July 2015, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 8,792 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Marion County School Board – 6,071

• Munroe Regional Medical Center – 2,648 • State of Florida (all departments) – 2,600 • Wal-Mart – 2,370

• Ocala Regional Health System – 2,020 • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 1,488

• Marion County Board of County Commissioners – 1,462 • AT&T – 1,000

• City of Ocala – 994 • Lockheed Martin Employees – 981 Source: Ocala/Marion County Chamber & Economic Partnership

Employment growth is expected to average a rate of 2.5 percent annually. The unemployment rate is estimated to average 6.7 percent, the highest of the researched areas. The Construction and Mining Services sector is expected to be the fastest growing in Ocala, averaging an annual growth rate of 5.6 percent. This is followed by the Professional and Business Services sector with 3.9 percent average annual growth. The Federal Government sector and Information sector are expected to experience declines with an average annual growth rate of -0.2 and -2.5 percent.

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES County decides to explore its courthouse expansion

• Since 1938, sourcing money to fund the courthouse expansion in downtown Ocala has been a persistent problem for Marion County. • In the past few decades there has been a battle between citizens and lawyers on whether the courthouse should be enlarged or not. On one side, the citizens saw the expansion as Ocala getting more power and money from the federal government, while the lawyers wanted more room.

• The proposal of a courthouse expansion is now being reviewed again, and the same fight continues, along with the question of if it should be rebuilt elsewhere or just expanded at its current location. Source: Ocala Star Banner, July 18, 2015 60

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2015


O cala

Much more to Ocala Shrine Rodeo than action in ring • The Ocala Shrine Rodeo has been around for 33 years. This year alone the rodeo is expected to bring in $1.5 million in donations. The rodeo raises money to benefit the Shriners Hospitals for Children.

• The Shrine rodeo is a two-day event and includes bull riding, bronc riding, steer roping and wrestling, and barrel racing. It is sanctioned by the Professional Rodeo Cowboys Association.

• The rodeo is expected to attract thousands of people and all net proceeds go to the hospital. Some current patients at Shriners will be at the event performing mock rodeo events. Source: Ocala Star Banner, September 3, 2015 Despite state budget setback, Marion still eyes VA nursing home

• Marion County will not see a new VA nursing home this year, but the county will continue to push for one and see one opening in the near future. • If county leaders can get the budget passed by the state to fund a VA nursing home in Marion County, the county could have $12 million added to the economy annually and around 200 more employees with a payroll of over $7 million. • About 45,000 veterans reside in Marion County and there are more than 650,000 in a 75-mile radius of the county. The county is hoping to give them a facility nearby where they can go for convenient medical care.

stores are also in the process of development downtown. The garage will help to accommodate parking for the increase of people in downtown Ocala.

• All of these projects and updates to the historic downtown area are in the hopes of pumping more money into the economy, adding jobs, and bringing in more visitors to the area. Source: Ocala Star Banner, August 18, 2015 Robert N. Scanlon Training Center sold for more than $1.7 million

• Home to some of the top racing horses in the world, the Robert N. Scanlon Training Center in under new ownership by Hidden Brook and Randy Bradshaw. • Robert Scanlon started the training center in 1999 and worked with several prestigious horse trainers, including two of the world’s biggest thoroughbred owners. His son David took over when he passed away in 2005. The Scanlons worked with some of the fastest horses including Rags to Riches, Bernardini, and Afleet Alex and Lion. • The 125-acre facility with 165 stalls and a threequarter-mile track will now have a new beginning with new owners, but will remain one of the best training facilities in the world.

Source: Ocala Star Banner, August 25, 2015

Source: Ocala Star Banner, July 4, 2015 Council approves parking garage to open in 2016

• The City Council has finally approved a $5.5 million parking garage facility after five decades of talk about it. The garage will be located in downtown Ocala and will hold a little over 400 vehicles.

• The city is hoping to continue with new renovations and buildings by adding a restaurant, hotel, and new outdoor market. Condominiums and retail Institute for Economic Competitiveness

61


O cala Ocala MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Ocala Unemployment Rate 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

(percent)

0.6

0.8

1.6

1.8

2

8500.0

(Millions 2000 $)

8000.0

7000.0 6500.0 6000.0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 FL Unemployment Rate Ocala Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

100.0 95.0 90.0 85.0

62

1.4

7500.0

105.0

80.0

1.2

Ocala Real Gross Metro Product

5500.0

Ocala Payroll Employment 110.0

1

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Ocala Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2015

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Real Gross Metro Product

Ocala Real Personal Income 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

(percent change year ago)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Real Personal Income


O cala

Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL

September 2015

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

10.7 4.3 3.3 7.4 10.7 3.4 32.3 32.1 36.5 0.9

11.6 8.1 3.4 8.2 11.2 5.3 34.8 33.7 37.2 1.9

11.4 -1.5 3.5 7.9 10.9 -2.9 34.1 32.5 37.8 1.6

11.6 1.9 3.6 8.0 11.0 0.6 34.5 32.6 38.2 1.2

12.1 4.5 3.8 8.4 11.3 3.1 35.8 33.3 39.0 2.1

12.8 5.6 4.0 8.9 11.9 5.3 37.3 34.7 40.0 2.5

13.6 5.7 4.2 9.3 12.4 4.2 38.9 35.6 41.6 3.9

14.5 6.8 4.5 10.0 13.0 4.8 40.8 36.6 43.1 3.6

15.4 6.6 4.8 10.7 13.6 4.5 42.7 37.6 44.8 4.0

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 90.3 89.7 91.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.4 -0.7 1.4 Manufacturing 6.4 6.4 6.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.7 0.4 4.5 Nonmanufacturing 83.9 83.3 84.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.3 -0.7 1.1 Construction & Mining 6.3 5.7 5.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -13.7 -9.8 -5.9 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 19.8 20.2 20.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.0 2.3 3.3 Wholesale Trade 3.4 3.3 3.4 Retail Trade 14.4 14.7 14.9 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 2.1 2.3 2.7 Information 1.0 1.0 0.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -14.9 0.1 -10.0 Financial Activities 4.2 4.2 4.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -18.6 0.8 -0.2 Prof & Business Services 7.9 7.9 8.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.4 0.3 8.3 Educ & Health Services 13.4 13.8 14.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.1 2.9 3.1 Leisure & Hospitality 10.1 10.1 10.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.9 0.4 2.2 Other Services 3.4 3.1 2.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.7 -6.2 -11.6 Federal Government 0.9 0.7 0.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 27.6 -24.3 0.0 State & Local Government 16.9 16.4 16.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.3 -3.0 -1.4

92.8 2.0 6.9 3.0 85.9 2.0 5.8 8.3 21.5 2.8 3.4 15.1 3.0 0.8 -6.4 4.2 -0.1 9.1 5.7 14.4 0.6 10.6 2.8 2.9 3.0 0.7 0.1 15.9 -1.5

95.5 2.9 7.3 4.7 88.3 2.8 6.2 7.2 22.1 2.8 3.2 15.7 3.2 0.8 -4.9 4.1 -2.0 9.6 6.3 16.7 16.6 11.1 4.5 3.0 6.1 0.7 0.0 13.8 -13.3

98.5 3.1 7.6 4.3 90.9 3.0 6.3 0.7 23.1 4.6 3.3 16.4 3.4 0.7 -10.8 4.1 0.0 9.9 2.3 17.9 6.7 11.5 3.7 3.0 -0.9 0.7 -1.0 13.7 -0.6

100.9 2.5 7.7 1.3 93.2 2.6 6.7 7.6 23.5 1.5 3.4 16.5 3.6 0.7 -2.7 4.2 1.0 10.3 4.3 18.4 2.8 11.8 2.2 3.0 -0.1 0.7 1.4 14.0 2.2

103.4 2.5 7.7 1.0 95.7 2.6 7.3 8.8 23.8 1.4 3.4 16.6 3.8 0.7 3.8 4.2 0.4 10.9 5.7 18.8 2.5 11.9 1.3 3.0 0.9 0.7 -0.7 14.3 1.9

105.6 2.1 7.8 0.8 97.7 2.2 7.7 5.1 24.1 1.5 3.5 16.7 3.9 0.7 -0.1 4.2 -0.1 11.3 3.4 19.2 2.2 12.2 2.2 3.1 0.9 0.7 -0.6 14.6 1.9

336.6 0.6 131.2 0.5 8.6 594.1 581.6 13

339.6 0.9 132.8 1.2 7.3 741.4 705.4 36

343.4 1.1 132.4 -0.3 6.7 1151.0 1139.1 12

348.7 1.6 134.0 1.3 6.6 2089.3 1993.1 96

354.9 1.8 136.4 1.7 6.7 2859.4 2644.9 214

361.5 1.8 139.2 2.1 6.7 3117.9 2882.4 236

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

331.7 0.2 132.4 -0.2 13.6 496.2 493.9 2

332.8 0.3 131.0 -1.0 12.3 361.3 358.5 3

334.7 0.6 130.6 -0.3 10.3 407.2 405.8 1

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

63


O cala

Quarterly Outlook for Ocala, FL

September 2015

2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

13 6 4 9

13.1 5.5 4.1 9

13.3 5.7 4.1 9.1

13.4 5.6 4.2 9.3

13.7 5.4 4.3 9.4

13.9 6.1 4.3 9.6

14.1 6.5 4.4 9.7

14.4 6.8 4.4 9.9

14.6 6.9 4.5 10.1

14.8 6.9 4.6 10.3

15.1 6.9 4.6 10.4

15.3 6.7 4.7 10.6

15.6 6.6 4.8 10.8

15.8 6.4 4.9 10.9

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

12 5.7

12.1 5.1

12.2 4.4

12.3 4.3

12.5 4

12.6 4.3

12.8 4.6

12.9 5

13.1 4.9

13.2 4.7

13.4 4.7

13.5 4.6

13.7 4.5

13.8 4.3

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

37.7 34.9

37.9 35.1

38.3 35.3

38.6 35.4

39.1 35.7

39.5 36

40.1 36.3

40.5 36.5

41 36.8

41.5 37

42 37.3

42.5 37.5

42.9 37.7

43.3 37.9

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

40.1 2.9

40.5 3

41 3.2

41.4 4.1

41.8 4.3

42.2 4

42.5 3.7

42.9 3.6

43.3 3.6

43.7 3.6

44.1 3.8

44.6 4

45 4

45.5 4.2

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

98.7 2.6

99.4 2

99.9 2.4

100.5 2.4

101.2 2.6

102 2.6

102.6 2.7

103.2 2.7

103.7 2.5

104.2 2.2

104.7 2.1

105.3 2.1

105.9 2.1

106.3 2

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

7.6 4.6

7.6 2.5

7.6 2.1

7.6 1.2

7.7 0.9

7.7 1

7.7 1.1

7.7 1.1

7.8 0.9

7.8 0.9

7.8 0.9

7.8 0.9

7.8 0.8

7.8 0.7

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

91.1 2.5

91.7 1.9

92.3 2.4

92.8 2.5

93.5 2.7

94.3 2.7

94.9 2.8

95.5 2.8

96 2.6

96.4 2.3

96.9 2.2

97.5 2.1

98.1 2.2

98.5 2.1

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

6.2 -0.1

6.3 0.1

6.5 2.2

6.6 6.6

6.8 10.3

7 11.6

7.2 10.8

7.3 9.7

7.4 8.1

7.5 6.7

7.6 5.6

7.7 5.3

7.8 5.1

7.8 4.5

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

23.2 4.6

23.4 3.8

23.4 2.3

23.4 1.6

23.5 1.2

23.6 0.9

23.7 1.3

23.8 1.5

23.8 1.6

23.9 1.5

24 1.4

24.1 1.5

24.2 1.6

24.2 1.4

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.3 16.4 3.5

3.3 16.5 3.5

3.3 16.5 3.6

3.3 16.5 3.6

3.4 16.5 3.6

3.4 16.5 3.7

3.4 16.5 3.7

3.4 16.6 3.7

3.5 16.6 3.8

3.5 16.6 3.8

3.5 16.6 3.9

3.5 16.7 3.9

3.5 16.8 3.9

3.5 16.8 3.9

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

0.7 -11.6

0.7 -10.6

0.7 -6.5

0.7 -1.7

0.7 -0.8

0.7 -1.7

0.7 2.5

0.7 4.2

0.7 4.2

0.7 4.2

0.7 0.7

0.7 -0.9

0.7 -0.1

0.7 0

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

4.1 -0.1

4.1 1.2

4.2 0.8

4.2 1

4.2 1.2

4.2 0.8

4.2 0.5

4.2 0.5

4.2 0.5

4.2 0

4.2 -0.1

4.2 -0.1

4.2 -0.1

4.2 0

9.9 2.6

10 2.1

10.1 3

10.2 4.2

10.3 4.4

10.5 5.6

10.7 6.2

10.9 6.4

10.9 5.7

11 4.5

11.1 3.6

11.2 3.4

11.3 3.5

11.4 3.1

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

17.8 1.4

18 0.1

18.1 1.3

18.3 3.1

18.5 3.4

18.6 3.4

18.7 3.1

18.8 2.8

18.9 2.2

19 1.8

19 2

19.2 2

19.3 2.3

19.4 2.4

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

11.6 3.5

11.7 2.2

11.8 4.2

11.8 2.4

11.8 1.6

11.8 0.9

11.8 0.7

11.9 1

12 1.5

12 1.9

12.1 2

12.2 2.3

12.2 2.3

12.3 2.2

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

3 -4.6

3 -1

3 -3.1

3 -1

3 2

3 1.7

3 1.4

3 1

3 0.7

3 0.5

3.1 0.6

3.1 0.8

3.1 1

3.1 1.2

0.7 0.3

0.7 0.6

0.7 6

0.7 0.3

0.7 0

0.7 -0.4

0.7 -0.6

0.7 -0.7

0.7 -0.7

0.7 -0.7

0.7 -0.7

0.7 -0.7

0.7 -0.6

0.7 -0.5

13.9 4

13.9 3.5

13.9 4.2

14 1.6

14.1 1.4

14.1 1.6

14.2 1.8

14.3 1.9

14.3 1.9

14.4 2

14.5 2

14.5 1.9

14.6 1.9

14.7 1.8

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

343.9 1.2

345.1 1.3

346.5 1.4

348 1.5

349.4 1.6

351 1.7

352.5 1.7

354.1 1.8

355.8 1.8

357.4 1.8

359 1.8

360.6 1.8

362.3 1.8

364 1.9

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

132.2 -0.7

132.7 -1.2

133.3 0.1

133.8 1.8

134.3 1.6

134.8 1.6

135.4 1.6

136 1.7

136.7 1.8

137.4 1.9

138.1 2

138.8 2.1

139.6 2.1

140.4 2.2

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

64

6.7

6.7

6.6

6.6

6.6

6.6

6.6

6.6

6.7

6.7

6.7

6.7

6.7

6.7

1203 1189 13

1441 1412 29

1692 1642 50

1943 1867 76

2238 2130 108

2484 2333 151

2688 2501 187

2862 2641 221

2917 2694 223

2970 2743 227

3043 2814 230

3112 2883 229

3148 2910 238

3169 2923 246

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2015


O r lan d o – K issimmee

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Orlando–Kissimmee MSA is comprised of Lake, Orange, Osceola and Seminole Counties. Located in the southern center of the state, this area is home to numerous tourist attractions such as Walt Disney World, Universal Studios and Sea World. It is also home to the Orlando Magic and the Orlando City Soccer Club. Orlando hosts many conventions utilizing some of the biggest hotels in the country and America’s second largest convention center. The University of Central Florida, the nation’s second largest university, and many other places of higher education also reside in the MSA.

The Orlando–Kissimmee area is expected to show varying strengths and weaknesses in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to average 6.3 percent annually, the second highest of the twelve Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). The real per capita income level is expected to average $38,100. Average annual wage growth will be 3.3 percent. The average annual wage will be at a level of $49,600. The Orlando MSA will see an average population growth of 2.1 percent, the second highest of the studied MSAs. Gross Metro Product is expected to average at 121,860.93 million dollars, the third highest of the studied MSAs. Employment growth is forecasted to average 3.0 percent annually, the highest of the MSAs. The metro will see an average unemployment rate of 4.9 percent. In the Orlando area, the fastest growing sector is expected to be the Construction and Mining sector with an average annual growth rate of 7.4 percent. This will be followed by the Professional and Business Services sector, with an average annual growth rate of 4.7 percent, and the Educational and Health Services sector at 2.9 percent. None of the sectors are expected to decline.

QUICK FACTS: • • • • • • •

MSA population estimate of 2,267,846 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). Lake County population estimate of 308,034 as of July 1, 2013 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). Orange County population estimate of 1,224,267 as of July 1, 2013 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). Osceola County population estimate of 298,504 as of July 1, 2013 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). Seminole County population estimate of 436,041 as of July 1, 2013 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). Civilian labor force of 1,222,012 in July 2015 (Florida Research and Economic Database). An unemployment rate of 5.2% as of July 2015, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 63,320 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database).

TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: • Walt Disney World Resort – 69,000 • Orange County Public Schools – 22,000 • Florida Hospital (Adventist Health) – 17,600 • Universal Orlando (Comcast) – 17,300 • Orlando Health – 14,310 • University of Central Florida – 11,078 • Seminole County Public Schools – 7,786 • Orange County Government – 7,553 • Darden Restaurants Inc. – 7,600 • Osceola County Public Schools – 6,560 • SeaWorld Parks & Entertainment – 6,032 • Lockheed Martin Corporation – 5,774

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Lake Nona named top selling master-planned community

• RCLCO, a national real estate research firm, named Lake Nona as the ninth best-selling masterplanned community in the U.S. • Sales in the area increased 16 percent from 2014 and over 468 homes have been constructed. Two new neighborhoods, Enclave at VillageWalk and Somerset Park, have opened in the community.

• The Lake Nona Town center will open by the end of this year, which will include restaurants, a fitness center, and other businesses. Source: Orlando Business Journal, July 23, 2015

Source: Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission 2013 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

65


O r lan d o – K issimmee

UCF’s $207M downtown Orlando campus leads top C. Fla. deals of 2014-15

• The University of Central Florida’s future downtown campus is part of the $1 billion Creative Village complex, which will redevelop the Parramore area of Orlando. • The campus itself represents $207 million in investment, and is expected to bring 10,000 students to the downtown area.

• There are several other deals included in the Creative Village project, totaling $3.8 billion. These projects are expected to create thousands of jobs in the Orlando area. Source: Orlando Business Journal, July 24, 2015 Forbes: Orlando among best cities for future job growth

• Based on projections by Moody’s, Forbes named Orlando the fourth fasted growing metro of the 200 largest metro areas. Moody’s projects Orlando’s job growth rate to be 4.2 percent. • Forbes also mentioned that Orlando has a relatively young population and strong tourism due to Universal and Disney, with over 60 million visitors in 2014. • Five other Florida metros were members of the top 10 metros for highest forecasted employment growth, including Naples and Cape Coral.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, July 30, 2015 Universal expanding Cabana Bay Beach Resort by 400 rooms • Universal’s plans to add 400 rooms to its 1,800room Cabana Bay Beach Resort.

• The new rooms would open in 2017 and will be located in new buildings on the southern end of the property, near the location of the company’s future water park, Volcano Bay. • Universal also plans to add a new hotel with about 1,000 rooms to be named Sapphire Falls, set to open in 2016. Universal’s total hotel room capacity will be 5,600 with these additions. Source: Orlando Sentinel, August 31, 2015 66

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2015

Orlando retail grows but rents sink, annual ICSC report says

• A recent report by the International Council of Shopping Centers showed that the amount of empty retail space in Orlando has been shrinking, but that leasing rates have not risen. • The report claimed that with future increases in supply of retail spaces, the rental rate in Orlando should slowly continue to lower.

• The retail industry has been growing in strength, however. Occupancy rates in 2014 hit record highs and despite very few new mall builds, many old malls have received renovations.

• The report also identified additional trends, such as increasing numbers of smaller retail spaces for urban areas, and creation of shopping areas that are diverse and have everything a consumer might want in one place. Source: Orlando Sentinel, August 31, 2015 Osceola Medical Center plans $7M pediatric project

• The Osceola Regional Medical center is planning to spend $7 million to build a large, 14,000-squarefoot pediatric facility and intensive acre unit. This will over triple the size of the hospital’s services.

• The expansion comes as demand for children’s medical services is increasing in the area and the Osceola County population is growing. The county resident base grew by 15.5 percent between April 1, 2010 and July 1, 2014, compared to only 5.8 percent growth for the state.

• Construction is planned to start in mid-2016 and be completed within 18 months. Source: Orlando Sentinel, September 11, 2015


O r lan d o – K issimmee Orlando - Kissimmee MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

Florida & Orlando Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

10.0%

0.6

0.8

1.4

1.6

Orlando Real Gross Metro Product 130000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

120000.0

90000.0

4.0%

80000.0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 FL Unemployment Rate Orlando Unemployment Rate

70000.0

Orlando Payroll Employment (Thousands)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Real Gross Metro Product

Orlando Real Personal Income 12.0%

(percent change year ago)

9.0%

1200.0

6.0%

1100.0

3.0%

1000.0

0.0% -3.0%

900.0 800.0

1.2

100000.0

6.0%

1300.0

1

110000.0

8.0%

2.0%

0.4

-6.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 OrlandoPayroll Employment

-9.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

67


O r lan d o – K issimmee

Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL

September 2015

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

73.7 3.9 42.3 31.4 73.3 3.1 34.4 34.2 42.5 1.3

77.6 5.2 43.7 33.8 75.2 2.5 35.5 34.4 43.3 2.0

81.5 5.1 46.2 35.3 77.8 3.6 36.5 34.9 44.6 2.9

83.9 2.9 48.0 35.9 79.1 1.7 36.8 34.7 44.9 0.7

88.5 5.6 51.2 37.4 82.4 4.2 38.0 35.4 45.9 2.2

94.2 6.4 54.7 39.4 87.4 6.1 39.6 36.7 47.2 2.8

99.9 6.0 58.3 41.6 91.4 4.5 41.1 37.6 48.8 3.5

106.4 6.5 61.9 44.5 95.6 4.6 42.9 38.5 50.4 3.2

113.0 6.2 65.5 47.5 99.5 4.1 44.7 39.3 52.2 3.5

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 992.4 1005.4 1031.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.5 1.3 2.6 Manufacturing 38.0 38.0 38.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.8 0.0 -0.1 Nonmanufacturing 954.4 967.4 993.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.5 1.4 2.7 Construction & Mining 47.7 45.2 46.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -12.5 -5.2 2.2 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 186.0 191.9 198.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.0 3.2 3.2 Wholesale Trade 38.4 38.4 39.0 Retail Trade 117.9 123.3 128.1 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 29.7 30.2 30.9 Information 23.8 24.0 23.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.0 0.9 -1.7 Financial Activities 65.1 65.8 67.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.1 1.1 2.1 Prof & Business Services 161.1 161.8 169.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.8 0.5 4.6 Educ & Health Services 120.9 123.5 128.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.0 2.2 3.7 Leisure & Hospitality 195.6 203.5 210.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.9 4.0 3.3 Other Services 38.5 36.5 34.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.3 -5.1 -4.7 Federal Government 12.8 12.0 12.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.7 -6.1 2.7 State & Local Government 102.9 103.1 104.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.7 0.2 0.9

1065.5 3.3 38.2 0.5 1027.4 3.4 51.2 10.8 204.3 3.2 40.1 132.9 31.3 23.8 0.9 69.5 3.3 175.6 3.8 131.4 2.6 218.6 4.0 36.0 3.3 12.4 0.6 104.6 0.6

1110.4 4.2 39.5 3.5 1070.9 4.2 56.2 9.7 213.0 4.3 42.5 138.3 32.3 24.4 2.6 70.8 1.9 184.2 4.9 135.7 3.2 231.2 5.8 37.7 4.8 12.6 1.8 105.0 0.4

1156.3 4.1 39.9 0.9 1116.4 4.3 59.9 6.7 223.4 4.8 46.5 143.1 33.8 24.6 0.6 74.4 5.1 193.3 4.9 139.8 3.1 243.8 5.4 38.3 1.7 12.9 2.4 105.9 0.9

1190.1 2.9 40.2 0.9 1149.8 3.0 64.8 8.1 228.5 2.3 48.6 144.7 35.2 24.3 -0.9 75.8 1.9 202.3 4.7 144.7 3.5 250.0 2.5 38.9 1.5 13.1 1.2 107.4 1.4

1223.1 2.8 40.7 1.1 1182.4 2.8 70.5 8.8 232.3 1.7 50.2 145.4 36.7 25.3 4.0 76.0 0.2 214.0 5.8 148.7 2.8 253.8 1.5 39.2 0.8 13.0 -0.5 109.6 2.0

1250.9 2.3 41.1 1.0 1209.8 2.3 74.6 5.9 235.9 1.6 51.7 146.4 37.8 25.5 0.6 75.7 -0.4 221.4 3.5 152.0 2.2 260.4 2.6 39.6 1.0 12.9 -0.6 111.7 2.0

2277.7 2.1 1181.9 1.5 7.0 14836.2 9060.3 5776

2327.7 2.2 1212.1 2.6 5.9 14736.3 10000.1 4736

2379.2 2.2 1218.5 0.5 5.1 18116.2 12150.3 5966

2430.1 2.1 1247.1 2.4 4.9 19926.5 13391.9 6535

2480.1 2.1 1276.2 2.3 4.8 21359.0 14630.2 6729

2529.5 2.0 1301.4 2.0 4.8 22291.9 15260.8 7031

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

68

2145.5 1.4 1137.5 1.4 11.1 5011.9 4418.9 593

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2015

2183.2 1.8 1146.7 0.8 10.1 5764.9 4511.6 1253

2231.2 2.2 1163.8 1.5 8.5 10942.5 7237.6 3705


O r lan d o – K issimmee

Quarterly Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL

September 2015

2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

95.2 7 55.2 40

96.3 6.4 56.2 40.1

97.8 6.4 57.1 40.7

99 6 57.9 41.1

100.5 5.6 58.7 41.9

102.1 6.1 59.6 42.5

104 6.3 60.6 43.4

105.6 6.7 61.4 44.1

107.2 6.6 62.3 44.9

108.8 6.6 63.2 45.7

110.6 6.4 64.1 46.6

112.2 6.3 65 47.2

113.8 6.1 66 47.8

115.4 6 66.9 48.4

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

88.1 6.7

89.1 6.1

90.1 5.1

90.8 4.7

91.8 4.2

93 4.3

94.1 4.4

95.1 4.8

96.1 4.6

97 4.4

98.2 4.3

99.1 4.2

100 4

100.8 3.9

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

39.9 36.9

40.1 37.2

40.5 37.4

40.8 37.4

41.3 37.7

41.7 38

42.2 38.2

42.7 38.4

43.1 38.6

43.6 38.8

44.1 39.1

44.5 39.3

44.9 39.4

45.3 39.6

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

47.3 3.4

47.8 3.1

48.2 3.2

48.6 3.7

49 3.7

49.4 3.4

49.8 3.2

50.2 3.2

50.6 3.2

51 3.3

51.5 3.4

51.9 3.5

52.4 3.5

52.9 3.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

1162.3 4.1

1171.4 3.9

1179 3.4

1185.6 2.9

1193.1 2.6

1202.7 2.7

1212 2.8

1219.9 2.9

1226.9 2.8

1233.7 2.6

1240.3 2.3

1247.8 2.3

1255.2 2.3

1260.3 2.2

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

39.9 0.3

40 -0.4

40.1 0.9

40.1 0.7

40.3 1

40.4 1.2

40.5 1.2

40.6 1.2

40.7 1

40.8 1

40.9 1

41 1

41.1 1

41.2 0.9

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

1122.3 4.3

1131.5 4

1138.9 3.5

1145.4 3

1152.7 2.7

1162.2 2.7

1171.5 2.9

1179.3 3

1186.1 2.9

1192.9 2.6

1199.4 2.4

1206.7 2.3

1214.1 2.4

1219.1 2.2

59.8 6.4

60.8 4

62.5 4.7

64 7.7

65.4 9.4

67.2 10.6

68.6 9.9

70 9.3

71.2 8.8

72.2 7.4

73.2 6.7

74.2 6.1

75.2 5.6

75.9 5.1

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

225.3 5.5

227.1 5.2

227.4 4.3

227.9 2.2

228.7 1.5

229.8 1.2

230.9 1.5

231.8 1.7

232.7 1.8

233.7 1.7

234.5 1.6

235.5 1.6

236.6 1.7

236.9 1.4

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

47.4 143.8 34.1

47.8 144.8 34.4

48.1 144.6 34.7

48.4 144.6 35

48.7 144.7 35.4

49.2 144.9 35.8

49.6 145.1 36.2

49.9 145.4 36.5

50.3 145.5 36.9

50.8 145.6 37.2

51.2 145.9 37.5

51.5 146.3 37.8

51.8 146.8 37.9

52.1 146.8 38

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

24.5 0.3

24.6 0.6

24.4 -0.4

24.4 -0.6

24.3 -0.8

24.2 -1.7

25 2.5

25.5 4.4

25.4 4.6

25.4 4.7

25.4 1.3

25.4 -0.3

25.5 0.6

25.5 0.7

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

74.9 5.9

75.4 4.6

75.7 3.4

75.8 2.2

75.8 1.2

76 0.8

76.1 0.5

76.1 0.4

76 0.3

75.9 -0.2

75.8 -0.4

75.7 -0.5

75.7 -0.4

75.6 -0.3

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

194.8 4.5

195.9 4.9

198.4 4.6

200.5 3.9

203.2 4.3

207.3 5.8

211.1 6.4

213.4 6.4

214.9 5.7

216.6 4.5

218.7 3.6

220.8 3.5

222.6 3.6

223.7 3.3

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

140.1 3

141.4 2.6

142.5 2.5

144.1 3.9

145.5 3.8

146.8 3.8

147.5 3.5

148.4 3

149.1 2.5

149.9 2.1

150.7 2.2

151.5 2.1

152.5 2.2

153.3 2.3

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

245.8 5.2

248.3 5.1

249.6 4.3

249.6 3.2

250.2 1.8

250.7 0.9

251.5 0.7

252.6 1.2

254.7 1.8

256.6 2.4

257.7 2.5

259.5 2.7

261.4 2.6

263 2.5

38.2 1.4

38.5 1.4

38.7 0.8

38.9 1.8

38.9 1.9

39 1.3

39.1 1

39.2 0.8

39.2 0.7

39.3 0.7

39.4 0.8

39.5 0.9

39.7 1.1

39.8 1.3

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

13 2.8

13.1 1.9

13.1 2.6

13.1 1.8

13.1 0.4

13 -0.1

13 -0.4

13 -0.5

13 -0.5

13 -0.6

13 -0.6

12.9 -0.6

12.9 -0.6

12.9 -0.5

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

106 0.8

106.4 0.9

106.6 1.3

107.1 0.9

107.6 1.5

108.1 1.7

108.7 1.9

109.3 2

109.9 2.1

110.4 2.1

111 2.1

111.5 2

112 1.9

112.5 1.8

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2385.7 2.2

2398.8 2.2

2411.5 2.2

2423.9 2.2

2436.2 2.1

2448.8 2.1

2461.6 2.1

2474.1 2.1

2486.3 2.1

2498.5 2

2511.1 2

2523.6 2

2535.7 2

2547.7 2

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1217.3 0.2

1225.9 0.4

1234.9 1.3

1243 2.6

1251.3 2.8

1259.3 2.7

1266.3 2.5

1272.8 2.4

1279.9 2.3

1286.1 2.1

1292.3 2.1

1298.2 2

1304.6 1.9

1310.4 1.9

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5

4.9

4.9

4.9

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.7

4.7

18667 12454 6213

19072 12603 6468

19306 12814 6492

19526 13037 6489

19983 13482 6501

20892 14235 6656

21211 14559 6652

21338 14637 6701

21356 14630 6726

21531 14695 6836

21953 15046 6908

22165 15333 6832

22442 15362 7079

22608 15303 7305

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

69


P alm B a y – M elbou r ne – T itus v ille

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville MSA is comprised of Brevard County only. Typically known as “Florida’s Space Coast”, this area is home to the Kennedy Space Center. Located in the central part of Florida’s east coast, the region is home to Cape Canaveral Air Force Base, Patrick Air Force Base and government contractors such as Harris Corporation. Like much of Florida, this area is growing fast; Port Canaveral is now a leading cruise ship port.

The Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to see moderate growth in the economic indicators relative to the other MSAs studied. Personal income growth is expected to average 5.6 percent each year. Real per capita income levels should average $40,600. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.5 percent. Average annual wage levels should be at $52,900. Population growth is expected to be an average of 1.2 percent, and the Gross Metro Product level is expected to average 19,196.15 million dollars.

QUICK FACTS:

• Population estimate of 550,823 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 258,694 in July 2015 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

• An unemployment rate of 6.1% as of July 2015, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 15,674 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

Employment growth is forecasted to average 2.1 percent each year. The metro will see an average unemployment rate of 5.7 percent. Construction and Mining is expected to be the fastest growing sector in the area, averaging 5.4 percent growth annually. The Professional and Business Services sector will see the second highest average annual growth rate at 5.0 percent, followed by the Education and Health services sector at 2.6 percent. The Federal Government and Information sectors will experience negative growth, at averages of -0.4 and -0.5 percent annually.

• Brevard County School Board – 9,520

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES

• Harris Corporation – 5,890

Smaller labor pool in Brevard means lower jobless rate

• Health First, Inc. – 7,800

• Brevard County Government – 2,380 • Department of Defense – 2,170 • NASA – 2,067

• Eastern Florida State College – 1,590 • Rockwell Collins Inc. – 1,410

• Florida Institute Of Technology – 1,280

• Northrop Grumman Corporation – 1,345 • Brevard County Sheriff Office – 1,175 • Parrish Medical Center – 1,075

• Wuesthoff Medical Center – 1,055 Source: Brevard Economic Development Council, 2011

70

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2015

• The unemployment rate in Brevard County dropped 0.2 points to 5.9 percent in June from the prior month. Unfortunately, this is not due to more jobs, but to a shrinking labor force. • The labor pool size was 257,455 in June, versus 258,159 in May, which could indicate less people are looking for jobs. This could artificially decrease the unemployment rate, making the economy look like it is improving faster than it really is.

• Florida as a whole saw a decrease in unemployment from 6.1 percent in June of last year to 5.5 in June of this year. Source: Florida Today, July 17, 2015


P alm B a y – M elbou r ne – T itus v ille

Brevard approves tax break for Melbourne battery maker

• Brevard County approved approximately $9 million in property tax breaks for Oakridge Global Energy Solutions, a Melbourne-based company that produces batteries. • The tax breaks are spread over the next eight years, with the company promising to add 1,000 jobs in Palm Bay and investing $270 million in capital.

• The company currently only has 25 employees, so there are some doubts as to whether or not it can achieve this growth. The added jobs are expected to have average salaries of $50,075. Source: Florida Today, July 22, 2015 New airline coming to Melbourne

• An undisclosed major international air carrier has been approved to join the Melbourne Airport.

• This would be the carrier’s first entry into Florida and is proposing a weekly international service with a 70-seat aircraft. The destination of the weekly services is yet unknown. • Greg Donovan, the executive director of the airport, called this deal a “milestone for the airport,” because this would be the airport’s first international service. Source: Florida Today, August 26, 2015 Port commissioners OK $90M for cruise terminal upgrades

• The Port Canaveral Commissioners approved upgrades to two terminals (terminals 10 and 5) to accommodate larger ships. The expansion will also include a 700-car parking garage at Terminal 5.

• A $90 million budget was approved for the project, with help from bank loans and bonds.

• After the renovations, Terminal 5 will be able to handle 3,500-passenger ships and Terminal 10 will be able to handle 5,000-passenger ships, significant increases the capacity of both terminals. Source: Florida Today, August 26, 2015 Melbourne business adding workers

• Numerous Palm Bay business are expanding, including eviCore healthcare, a Melbourne company that is planning to hire over 150 people for their medical call center. • There are also new businesses coming to the area that are creating jobs, including Erchonia Corp., a company that manufactures laser technology products.

• Erchonia plans to build a manufacturing and sales facility in Melbourne, which is expected to create 35 jobs, representing an investment of $5.3 million. Source: Florida Today, August 31, 2015 Embraer celebrates Titusville groundbreaking

• Embraer is expanding its presence in Brevard County through the construction of a new $3.5 million facility for its subsidiary, Aero Auto Seating Technologies. Construction started on September 8th. • Aero Auto Seating Technologies is a seat manufacturer, owned by the larger jet making company, Embraer, based in Brazil. The company was originally going to construct the new facility in Arizona, but chose Florida instead because of the incentive package offered by the state. • The new facility is expected to create 150 new jobs in Brevard with average salaries of $48,000.

Source: Florida Today, September 9, 2015

• Plans for the expansion of Terminal 5 include $17 million of upgrades to the terminal itself, $12 million for construction of the parking garage, and $4 million for upgrades to the passenger boarding bridges, with the total costs for the project reaching approximately $40 million. Institute for Economic Competitiveness

71


P alm B a y – M elbou r ne – T itus v ille Palm Bay - Melbourne - Titusville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

1

1.5

(percent)

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 FL Unemployment Rate Palm Bay Unemployment Rate

21000.0 20000.0 19000.0 18000.0 17000.0 16000.0 15000.0 14000.0 13000.0

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Payroll Employment 220.0 215.0 210.0 205.0 200.0 195.0 190.0 185.0

72

(Thousands)

2.5

3

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Real Gross Metro Product

Florida & Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Unemployment Rate 12.0%

2

(Millions 2000 $)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Real Gross Metro Product

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Real Personal Income 12.0%

(percent change year ago)

9.0% 6.0% 3.0% 0.0% -3.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Palm Bay Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2015

-6.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Real Personal Income


P alm B a y – M elbou r ne – T itus v ille

Annual Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

September 2015

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

20.4 1.6 9.3 11.1 20.3 0.8 37.4 37.2 46.9 1.9

21.4 5.0 9.3 12.0 20.7 2.2 39.2 38.0 47.4 1.0

21.5 0.4 9.3 12.1 20.5 -1.0 39.1 37.4 47.4 0.1

21.7 1.2 9.4 12.3 20.5 -0.1 39.3 37.1 47.9 0.9

22.5 3.8 9.8 12.8 21.0 2.4 40.4 37.6 48.7 1.8

23.7 5.0 10.3 13.4 22.0 4.7 42.0 39.0 50.0 2.6

24.9 5.3 10.9 14.0 22.8 3.8 43.7 40.0 51.9 3.8

26.5 6.2 11.5 15.0 23.8 4.3 45.9 41.2 53.8 3.7

28.0 5.9 12.2 15.9 24.7 3.8 48.0 42.3 56.0 4.0

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 194.6 194.2 194.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.0 -0.2 -0.1 Manufacturing 20.5 20.8 20.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.0 1.1 0.7 Nonmanufacturing 174.0 173.5 173.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 Construction & Mining 8.7 8.1 8.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -12.5 -5.8 3.1 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 33.0 34.4 34.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.9 4.1 1.7 Wholesale Trade 5.0 5.2 5.2 Retail Trade 24.6 25.1 25.5 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 3.3 4.1 4.2 Information 2.4 2.2 2.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -8.9 -9.4 -8.8 Financial Activities 7.6 7.5 7.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.6 -1.4 1.4 Prof & Business Services 32.4 31.3 29.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.2 -3.3 -7.4 Educ & Health Services 32.3 32.7 32.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.5 1.4 0.1 Leisure & Hospitality 21.2 21.5 22.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.5 1.7 5.4 Other Services 7.1 7.3 7.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.7 2.7 1.0 Federal Government 6.7 6.4 6.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 7.3 -5.3 -2.1 State & Local Government 22.6 22.0 22.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.9 -2.8 0.8

193.5 -0.4 20.1 -3.8 173.3 0.1 9.1 8.8 35.0 0.1 5.5 25.6 3.9 1.7 -14.3 7.5 -2.2 28.3 -2.4 32.8 0.1 22.9 1.1 7.5 1.6 6.2 -0.7 22.3 0.7

197.3 2.0 20.0 -0.5 177.2 2.3 9.8 6.7 35.4 1.3 5.5 26.4 3.4 1.9 9.2 7.3 -2.1 29.0 2.6 33.2 1.0 24.1 5.1 8.0 7.5 6.1 -1.2 22.4 0.6

202.3 2.5 20.3 1.2 182.0 2.7 10.0 2.0 35.9 1.5 5.5 27.0 3.4 1.8 -3.7 7.5 2.1 30.9 6.3 34.5 4.2 25.0 3.8 8.3 2.9 6.2 1.7 21.9 -2.3

206.5 2.1 20.9 3.3 185.6 2.0 10.6 6.7 36.1 0.6 5.6 27.0 3.5 1.8 -1.8 7.5 0.6 32.2 4.4 35.6 3.0 25.2 0.7 8.4 1.5 6.2 0.0 22.0 0.2

211.1 2.2 21.5 2.8 189.6 2.1 11.5 8.0 36.3 0.5 5.8 26.9 3.6 1.8 3.6 7.5 -0.2 34.1 5.9 36.2 1.8 25.3 0.5 8.4 0.1 6.1 -1.6 22.2 1.3

214.2 1.5 21.7 1.0 192.5 1.5 12.0 4.8 36.5 0.6 6.0 26.9 3.7 1.8 -0.2 7.4 -0.7 35.2 3.2 36.8 1.5 25.7 1.4 8.4 0.1 6.0 -1.6 22.5 1.4

552.2 0.7 259.5 -1.5 8.3 1350.7 1335.1 16

557.6 1.0 260.0 0.2 6.9 1285.6 1245.2 40

563.8 1.1 258.3 -0.7 6.0 2032.7 1543.5 489

570.3 1.2 262.8 1.7 5.6 3708.6 2498.2 1210

577.0 1.2 268.1 2.0 5.5 4582.2 3372.4 1210

584.3 1.3 273.2 1.9 5.6 4788.9 3601.8 1187

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

544.1 0.3 265.7 0.8 11.3 1082.6 995.1 88

545.0 0.2 265.9 0.1 10.9 976.1 846.7 129

548.2 0.6 263.5 -0.9 9.4 1119.7 1115.5 4

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

73


P alm B a y – M elbou r ne – T itus v ille

Quarterly Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

September 2015

2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

23.8 5.4 10.3 13.6

24.1 5.3 10.5 13.6

24.4 5.2 10.6 13.8

24.7 5.2 10.8 13.9

25.1 5.1 11 14.1

25.5 5.8 11.1 14.3

25.9 6 11.3 14.6

26.3 6.3 11.4 14.8

26.7 6.3 11.6 15.1

27 6.2 11.7 15.3

27.5 6.2 11.9 15.6

27.9 6 12.1 15.8

28.2 5.9 12.2 16

28.6 5.7 12.4 16.2

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

22.1 5.2

22.3 5

22.5 3.8

22.7 3.8

22.9 3.7

23.2 4

23.4 4.2

23.7 4.5

23.9 4.3

24.1 4.1

24.4 4

24.6 3.9

24.8 3.8

25 3.6

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

42.2 39.1

42.5 39.4

43 39.6

43.4 39.8

43.9 40.1

44.5 40.5

45.1 40.8

45.6 41.1

46.1 41.3

46.7 41.6

47.3 41.9

47.8 42.2

48.2 42.4

48.7 42.6

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

50.1 3

50.6 3

51.2 3.3

51.7 4

52.2 4.2

52.6 3.9

53.1 3.7

53.6 3.6

54.1 3.6

54.6 3.7

55.1 3.9

55.7 4

56.2 4

56.9 4.2

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

202.2 2.2

203.6 2.5

204.7 1.7

205.8 1.8

207.2 2.4

208.6 2.5

209.8 2.5

210.8 2.4

211.6 2.1

212.3 1.8

213 1.5

213.9 1.5

214.8 1.5

215.3 1.4

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

20.2 0.7

20.4 1.6

20.6 1.9

20.8 3

21.1 4.1

21.3 4.1

21.4 4

21.5 3.3

21.5 2.3

21.6 1.6

21.6 1.1

21.7 1.1

21.7 0.9

21.8 0.9

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

182 2.4

183.2 2.6

184.1 1.7

185 1.7

186.1 2.3

187.3 2.3

188.4 2.3

189.3 2.3

190 2.1

190.7 1.8

191.3 1.6

192.2 1.5

193.1 1.6

193.5 1.5

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

9.8 -0.5

9.9 -0.8

10.2 0.3

10.5 5.9

10.8 9.8

11 10.8

11.2 9.9

11.4 8.8

11.6 7.4

11.7 6.1

11.8 5.1

12 4.9

12.1 4.8

12.2 4.2

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

36 1

36.2 3.3

36.1 1.3

36.1 0.7

36.1 0.4

36.2 0

36.3 0.4

36.3 0.5

36.4 0.6

36.4 0.6

36.4 0.5

36.5 0.6

36.6 0.7

36.6 0.6

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

5.5 27.1 3.4

5.5 27.2 3.5

5.5 27.1 3.5

5.6 27 3.5

5.6 27 3.5

5.7 27 3.6

5.7 26.9 3.6

5.8 26.9 3.6

5.8 26.9 3.7

5.9 26.8 3.7

5.9 26.8 3.7

5.9 26.9 3.7

6 26.9 3.7

6 26.9 3.8

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.8 -7.7

1.8 -5

1.8 -2.9

1.8 -1.5

1.8 -0.9

1.7 -1.8

1.8 2.3

1.8 4

1.8 4

1.8 4

1.8 0.6

1.8 -1.1

1.8 -0.2

1.8 -0.1

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.4 0.7

7.5 1.1

7.5 0.5

7.5 1

7.5 0.7

7.5 0.2

7.5 -0.1

7.5 -0.1

7.5 -0.1

7.5 -0.5

7.5 -0.7

7.4 -0.7

7.4 -0.7

7.4 -0.6

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

30.9 6.1

31.2 5.5

31.6 4

31.9 2.6

32.4 4.9

33 6

33.6 6.5

34 6.7

34.3 6

34.6 4.6

34.8 3.6

35.2 3.3

35.4 3.2

35.5 2.8

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

34.8 4.5

35 4.5

35.2 3.2

35.4 3.4

35.8 2.8

36 2.8

36 2.5

36.2 2.2

36.3 1.6

36.4 1.2

36.5 1.4

36.7 1.4

36.9 1.6

37.1 1.7

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

25 3.1

25.2 1.6

25.2 0.9

25.2 0.8

25.2 0.8

25.2 0.1

25.2 -0.1

25.2 0.2

25.4 0.6

25.5 1.1

25.5 1.2

25.6 1.6

25.8 1.5

25.8 1.5

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

8.3 3.8

8.3 2.1

8.4 1.9

8.4 1.9

8.4 1.3

8.4 0.9

8.4 0.6

8.4 0.2

8.4 -0.1

8.4 -0.3

8.4 -0.2

8.4 0

8.4 0.2

8.4 0.4

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

6.3 2.4

6.3 2.8

6.3 2

6.2 0.4

6.2 -0.9

6.2 -1.4

6.2 -1.5

6.1 -1.7

6.1 -1.7

6.1 -1.6

6.1 -1.7

6 -1.7

6 -1.6

6 -1.5

21.8 -2.1

21.8 -1.6

21.9 -0.8

21.9 -0.5

22 1

22 1

22.1 1.2

22.2 1.3

22.3 1.4

22.4 1.4

22.4 1.4

22.5 1.4

22.6 1.4

22.6 1.3

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

564.6 1.1

566.3 1.2

567.9 1.2

569.5 1.2

571.1 1.1

572.7 1.1

574.3 1.1

576.1 1.2

577.8 1.2

579.6 1.2

581.5 1.2

583.3 1.3

585.2 1.3

587.2 1.3

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

257.9 -0.7

259.3 -0.2

260.8 0.5

262.1 2.2

263.5 2.2

264.8 2.1

266.1 2

267.3 2

268.8 2

270.1 2

271.3 2

272.6 1.9

273.9 1.9

275.2 1.9

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

74

5.9

5.8

5.7

5.6

5.6

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.6

5.6

5.6

5.6

5.6

5.6

2062 1519 543

2529 1768 761

2967 2038 929

3477 2318 1159

3982 2654 1328

4408 2983 1426

4544 3200 1344

4533 3385 1148

4598 3433 1165

4654 3472 1182

4725 3551 1174

4770 3619 1151

4820 3626 1193

4841 3610 1231

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2015


P ensacola – F e r r y P ass – B r ent

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent MSA is comprised of Escambia County and Santa Rosa County. Located in the northwest corner of Florida bordering Alabama, the region is home to the Pensacola Naval Air Station, Blue Angels, and the National Museum of Naval Aviation. This area has been referred to as the “Cradle of Naval Aviation.”

The Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to see low levels of growth in the economic indicators, relative to the twelve other areas studied. Personal income growth is expected to average 4.7 percent each year, the lowest of the twelve studied MSAs. The real per capita income level is expected to average $38,800. The average annual wage growth rate should be 3.1 percent, while the average annual wage level is expected to be $45,800. Population growth will be at an average rate of 0.8 percent, the lowest of the studied MSAs. The Gross Metro Product is expected to average 14,874.45 million dollars.

QUICK FACTS:

• Metro population estimate of 466,913 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Escambia County population estimate of 305,817 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Santa Rosa County population estimate of 161,096 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • A civilian labor force of 215,217 in July 2015 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

• An unemployment rate of 5.5% as of July 2015, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 11,737 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Local Government – 13,857

• Federal Government – 7,162 • State Government – 5,253

• Sacred Heart Health System – 5,000 • Baptist Health Care – 3,163 • Lakeview – 2,000

• Ascend Performance Materials – 1,400 • Gulf Power Company – 1,365

• West Florida Regional Medical Center – 1,300 • University of West Florida – 1,231

• Navy Federal Credit Union – 1,200 Sources: Pensacola Chamber of Commerce, Agency for Workforece Innovation, Company web sites, Reference USA

Employment growth is expected to average 1.5 percent each year, and the unemployment rate will average 4.8 percent. Construction and Mining will be the fastest growing sector in Pensacola, with 6.5 percent average annual growth. The Professional and Business Services sector will follow with an average growth rate of 2.8 percent. The Federal Government sector, Information sector, and Other Services sector are expected to experience negative growth with average annual growth rates of -1.5, -1.0, and -0.3 percent, respectively.

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES 60 million Perdido Key condo project breaks ground

• New Vista Del Mar condominiums at Perdido Key have broken ground after 9 years of waiting. The project was originally held off due to the recession in addition to the negative impact of the BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill.

• These luxury condos are located right off the shore, and units range anywhere between $700,000 to $1.7 million, offering between 2,700 to 4,300 square feet. A total of 47 out of 64 condos have already been sold. • The prosperous economy has only helped this project, with bed taxes in Perdido Key being 16 percent higher compared to last year. A digital marketing campaign and incentive program also greatly assisted the project. Source: Pensacola News Journal, July 20, 2015 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

75


P ensacola – F e r r y P ass – B r ent

Hawkshaw development proposals scrapped

• The Pensacola City Council, acting as the Community Redevelopment Agency, has turned down yet another proposal for the Hawkshaw property on 9th avenue, leaving the space barren for the foreseeable future. • This is the CRA’s second attempt to request proposals within the year.

• Councilman Charles Bare, who wanted to reject the recent set of proposals, commented that past offers didn’t match with the property. “I wanted to engage some entity that could identify what might be the best use for that property given the market needs,” he stated. Source: Pensacola News Journal, August 18, 2015 Local entrepreneurs in Fort Walton accelerator

• Various local entrepreneurs in Fort Walton have been participating in a three-month accelerator program, being run by the City of Fort Walton Beach and Miami-hailing accelerator program Venture Hive. The goal of these endeavors is to grow the local technology industry and bring more employment opportunities for military individuals. • Those participating are receiving a non-equity grant of $25,000 over the life of the three-month program, after achieving various target goals. Participants are receiving a variety of help such as a mentor as well as a year’s worth of space for their business after successful completion.

• With this particular endeavor, Dustin Gautney, program manager at Venture Hive, said, “It’s really the details that a lot of programs are missing that we try to focus on.” Source: Pensacola News Journal, August 25, 2015 Retail grows in Tiger Point

• Tiger point and its periphery communities are experiencing growth in the retail industry marked a recent acquisition by Los Angeles-based Westwood Financial Corp.: a 147,000-square-foot shopping center on Gulf Breeze Parkway. A new

76

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2015

40,000-square-foot Publix will also be coming to the Tiger Point Pavilion shopping center.

• The Tiger Point Shopping Center is currently 87 percent leased. For the rest of the space, Joe Dykstra, executive vice president of Westwood Financial Corp., says, “We are going to carve out the space that we believe is the most valuable.”

• In regards to the new Publix, construction should begin next year, with the store planning to open in 2017. Source: Pensacola News Journal, August 15, 2015 Savell: Days Inn remodel nears completion

• The local Days Inn has been undergoing renovations for the last 18 months and is now nearing completion. The total expenditures to date are over $700,000. Renovations were predicted to be completed by the end of July.

• Most renovations are for the exterior of the building including: the railings, scaffolding, the outdoor pool, an outdoor-seating area, and repainting the buildings.

• Some interior renovations include the upgraded WiFi, larger TVs for the guest rooms, the lounge area, bar, restaurant and kitchen, as well as revamping the menu for the pub. Source: Pensacola, July 12, 2015


P ensacola – F e r r y P ass – B r ent Pensacola - Ferry Pass - Brent MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation,Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

Florida & Pensacola Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

0.4

0.6

0.8

15500.0

8.0%

14000.0

6.0%

13500.0

(Millions 2000 $)

13000.0

4.0%

12500.0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 FL Unemployment Rate Pensacola Unemployment Rate

12000.0

(Thousands)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Real Gross Metro Product

Pensacola Real Personal Income

Pensacola Payroll Employment 8.0%

(percent change year ago)

6.0%

170.0

4.0%

165.0

2.0%

160.0

0.0%

155.0

-2.0%

150.0 145.0

1.4

15000.0 14500.0

175.0

1.2

Pensacola Real Gross Metro Product

10.0%

2.0%

1

-4.0% 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Pensacola Payroll Employment

-6.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

77


P ensacola – F e r r y P ass – B r ent

Annual Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

September 2015

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

16.0 3.0 6.9 9.1 15.9 2.1 35.4 35.2 40.3 0.0

16.9 5.4 7.1 9.8 16.3 2.7 36.9 35.8 41.3 2.4

17.5 3.7 7.3 10.2 16.7 2.2 37.7 36.0 42.0 1.8

17.8 1.9 7.4 10.5 16.8 0.7 38.0 35.8 41.9 -0.2

18.5 3.9 7.7 10.9 17.2 2.6 39.0 36.3 42.7 1.8

19.3 4.4 8.0 11.3 18.0 4.2 40.4 37.5 43.6 2.0

20.2 4.4 8.4 11.8 18.5 2.9 41.8 38.3 45.1 3.5

21.2 5.2 8.8 12.5 19.1 3.2 43.7 39.3 46.6 3.3

22.3 4.9 9.1 13.2 19.6 2.9 45.6 40.1 48.2 3.6

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 156.7 158.4 158.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.3 1.1 0.1 Manufacturing 5.4 5.5 5.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.6 2.6 1.2 Nonmanufacturing 151.3 152.9 153.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 1.1 0.1 Construction & Mining 10.5 9.8 9.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.6 -6.7 -4.0 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 29.4 29.8 30.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.4 1.3 0.9 Wholesale Trade 5.1 4.9 4.9 Retail Trade 20.2 20.8 21.1 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 4.1 4.1 4.0 Information 3.1 2.7 2.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.7 -12.5 -12.3 Financial Activities 8.7 8.7 9.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.2 0.0 3.5 Prof & Business Services 19.7 21.1 21.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 6.7 7.1 1.3 Educ & Health Services 26.7 27.4 27.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.8 2.4 -1.4 Leisure & Hospitality 18.1 19.2 19.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.8 6.4 2.6 Other Services 6.1 5.8 5.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.8 -5.4 -1.5 Federal Government 7.2 6.9 6.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 10.2 -4.7 -0.8 State & Local Government 21.8 21.6 21.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.3 -0.8 -0.2

160.5 1.2 5.9 5.6 154.6 1.0 9.2 -2.5 30.4 1.2 4.9 21.5 4.1 2.3 -1.0 9.9 10.0 21.5 1.0 26.6 -1.3 20.8 5.6 5.7 -0.5 6.6 -2.4 21.4 -0.8

164.0 2.2 6.0 2.3 158.0 2.2 9.5 2.8 31.1 2.4 5.0 22.0 4.2 2.3 -3.0 10.7 8.2 21.7 0.7 26.9 0.9 21.9 5.0 6.1 6.8 6.5 -2.0 21.4 0.0

168.3 2.6 6.2 2.2 162.2 2.6 10.0 5.5 32.1 3.1 5.0 23.1 4.0 2.2 -3.8 11.2 4.3 22.2 2.3 27.8 3.7 22.7 3.9 6.0 -1.4 6.5 -0.5 21.5 0.6

170.7 1.4 6.2 0.4 164.5 1.4 10.8 8.6 32.1 0.2 5.0 23.1 4.1 2.1 -2.0 11.2 0.4 22.8 2.8 28.5 2.2 22.8 0.5 6.0 0.8 6.4 -1.0 21.6 0.5

172.8 1.2 6.2 0.6 166.6 1.3 11.7 7.8 32.1 -0.1 5.1 22.8 4.2 2.2 2.8 11.1 -0.9 23.8 4.2 28.7 0.9 23.0 0.5 6.0 -0.3 6.3 -2.3 21.8 0.6

174.0 0.7 6.2 0.3 167.8 0.7 12.2 4.1 32.1 -0.1 5.2 22.7 4.2 2.2 -0.9 10.9 -1.4 24.3 2.0 28.9 0.5 23.3 1.5 6.0 -0.3 6.1 -2.3 21.9 0.6

469.3 1.3 213.1 0.0 7.0 1981.4 1863.9 117

474.5 1.1 215.2 1.0 6.0 1972.9 1679.2 294

478.8 0.9 214.9 -0.1 5.2 2595.1 1869.0 726

482.5 0.8 220.6 2.7 4.7 2175.5 1682.4 493

485.8 0.7 225.8 2.3 4.6 2087.2 1779.2 308

489.0 0.7 229.9 1.8 4.5 2180.5 1865.6 315

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

78

451.4 1.0 211.3 2.9 9.8 1820.4 1372.8 448

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2015

456.4 1.1 213.8 1.2 9.4 1200.9 1200.0 1

463.3 1.5 213.1 -0.3 8.2 1479.1 1462.7 16


P ensacola – F e r r y P ass – B r ent

Quarterly Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

September 2015

2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

19.5 4.9 8 11.5

19.6 4.6 8.1 11.5

19.9 4.7 8.3 11.6

20.1 4.3 8.3 11.7

20.3 4 8.4 11.9

20.5 4.6 8.5 12

20.8 4.9 8.6 12.2

21.1 5.2 8.7 12.4

21.4 5.3 8.8 12.6

21.6 5.2 8.9 12.7

21.9 5.2 9 12.9

22.2 5 9.1 13.1

22.4 4.9 9.2 13.2

22.6 4.7 9.3 13.4

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

18.1 4.6

18.2 4.2

18.3 3.4

18.4 2.9

18.5 2.6

18.7 2.8

18.9 3

19 3.4

19.1 3.3

19.3 3.1

19.4 3.1

19.6 3

19.7 2.8

19.8 2.7

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

40.7 37.7

40.9 37.9

41.3 38.1

41.6 38.2

42 38.4

42.5 38.7

43 38.9

43.5 39.2

43.9 39.4

44.4 39.6

44.9 39.9

45.4 40.1

45.8 40.2

46.2 40.4

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

43.6 2.4

44.1 2.6

44.5 3

44.9 3.6

45.2 3.7

45.6 3.5

46 3.3

46.4 3.3

46.7 3.3

47.1 3.3

47.6 3.5

48 3.5

48.4 3.6

48.9 3.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

168.7 2.5

169.4 2.1

169.9 1.8

170.3 1.1

171 1.3

171.7 1.3

172.3 1.4

172.7 1.4

173 1.2

173.3 0.9

173.5 0.7

173.9 0.7

174.3 0.8

174.4 0.6

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

6.2 1.8

6.2 1.3

6.2 0.5

6.2 0

6.2 0.5

6.2 0.6

6.2 0.7

6.2 0.7

6.2 0.4

6.2 0.4

6.2 0.4

6.2 0.4

6.2 0.2

6.2 0.2

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

162.5 2.5

163.3 2.2

163.7 1.9

164.2 1.2

164.8 1.4

165.5 1.4

166.1 1.4

166.5 1.4

166.8 1.2

167.1 1

167.3 0.7

167.7 0.7

168.1 0.8

168.2 0.7

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

10.1 5.1

10.2 7.1

10.4 6.9

10.7 7.9

11 9.2

11.3 10.4

11.5 9.8

11.6 8.7

11.8 7.2

11.9 5.8

12 4.6

12.1 4.2

12.3 4

12.3 3.4

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

32.2 3.1

32.3 2.7

32.2 1.3

32.1 0.2

32.1 -0.2

32.1 -0.5

32.1 -0.2

32.1 0

32.1 0.1

32.1 0

32.1 -0.1

32.1 -0.1

32.1 0

32.1 -0.2

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

5 23.2 4

5 23.3 4

5 23.2 4

5 23.1 4.1

5 23 4.1

5.1 23 4.1

5.1 22.9 4.1

5.1 22.9 4.2

5.1 22.8 4.2

5.2 22.7 4.2

5.2 22.7 4.2

5.2 22.7 4.2

5.2 22.7 4.3

5.2 22.6 4.2

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.2 -3.9

2.2 -1.1

2.2 -1.8

2.2 -2.2

2.1 -1.5

2.1 -2.5

2.2 1.6

2.2 3.3

2.2 3.3

2.2 3.3

2.2 -0.2

2.2 -1.8

2.2 -0.9

2.2 -0.9

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

11.2 3.3

11.2 2.8

11.2 1.9

11.2 0.2

11.2 0

11.2 -0.5

11.1 -0.8

11.1 -0.8

11.1 -0.8

11 -1.3

11 -1.4

11 -1.4

10.9 -1.4

10.9 -1.4

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

22.2 2.2

22.3 1.2

22.5 2.1

22.6 1.8

22.9 3.1

23.2 4.2

23.6 4.7

23.7 4.9

23.8 4.2

24 3

24.1 2.2

24.2 2

24.3 2.1

24.4 1.7

28 3.8

28.2 3.2

28.2 3

28.4 2.1

28.6 1.9

28.7 1.8

28.6 1.5

28.7 1.2

28.7 0.6

28.7 0.3

28.8 0.4

28.8 0.4

28.9 0.6

28.9 0.7

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

22.6 3.2

22.8 2.4

22.9 0.5

22.8 0.6

22.8 0.9

22.8 0.2

22.9 -0.1

22.9 0.2

23 0.7

23.1 1.1

23.1 1.2

23.2 1.6

23.4 1.6

23.4 1.5

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

6 -1.7

6 -1.6

6 0.5

6 1.1

6 0.9

6 0.5

6 0.2

6 -0.2

6 -0.5

6 -0.7

6 -0.6

6 -0.4

6 -0.2

6 -0.1

6.5 0.3

6.5 -1.4

6.5 1.1

6.4 -1.6

6.4 -1.6

6.4 -2

6.3 -2.2

6.3 -2.3

6.3 -2.3

6.2 -2.3

6.2 -2.4

6.1 -2.4

6.1 -2.3

6.1 -2.2

21.6 0.6

21.6 0.7

21.6 1.3

21.6 0.1

21.6 0.2

21.7 0.3

21.7 0.5

21.7 0.6

21.8 0.6

21.8 0.7

21.9 0.7

21.9 0.6

21.9 0.6

21.9 0.5

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

479.2 0.9

480.2 0.8

481.1 0.8

482 0.8

482.9 0.8

483.7 0.7

484.6 0.7

485.4 0.7

486.2 0.7

487 0.7

487.9 0.7

488.6 0.7

489.4 0.7

490.2 0.6

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

215.1 -0.1

216.8 0.2

218.5 1.7

219.9 3.3

221.4 2.9

222.7 2.8

224 2.5

225.2 2.4

226.5 2.3

227.5 2.2

228.5 2

229.4 1.9

230.4 1.7

231.2 1.6

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.1

5

4.8

4.7

4.7

4.6

4.5

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.5

4.5

2555 1859 697

2488 1793 695

2387 1734 653

2209 1671 538

2060 1637 423

2046 1688 358

2025 1732 293

2085 1776 309

2110 1797 313

2129 1812 317

2157 1844 313

2183 1875 307

2193 1877 316

2190 1867 324

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

79


T allahassee

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Tallahassee MSA is comprised of Gadsden, Jefferson, Leon, and Wakulla Counties. It is located between Pensacola and Jacksonville. Tallahassee is the capital city of Florida and houses Florida State University and Florida A&M University.

The Tallahassee Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show low growth in the economic indicators relative to other metro areas forecasted in the state. The area should see personal income growth averaging 4.8 percent each year. Real per capita income levels should average $36,400. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.4 percent. The average annual wage level will be $45,100. Population growth will average 1.1 percent, and the Gross Metro Product will average at a level of 14,151.43 million dollars.

QUICK FACTS:

• Metro population estimate of 373,255 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Gadsden County population estimate of 46,194 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• Jefferson County population estimate of 14,194 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Leon County population estimate of 281,845 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• Wakulla County population estimate of 31,022 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 185,041 in July 2015 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

• An unemployment rate of 5.5 % as of July 2015, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 10,150 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: • State of Florida – 24,599 • Florida State University – 6,119 • Leon County Schools – 4,550 • Tallahassee Memorial HealthCare, Inc. – 3,190 • City of Tallahassee – 2,736 • Publix Supermarket – 2,102 • Florida A&M University – 1,923 • Leon County – 1,919 • Walmart Stores Inc. – 1,300 • Tallahassee Community College – 1,144

Source: Economic Development Council of Tallahassee, 2012

80

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2015

Employment growth is expected to average 1.5 percent each year, the second lowest of the studied areas. However, the unemployment rate will average 4.5 percent, also the second lowest of the twelve MSAs. Construction and Mining will be the fastest growing sector in Tallahassee, averaging 6.1 percent annually. The Professional and Business Services sector follows with an average growth rate of 3.8 percent. The Federal Government sector and Financial Services sector are expected to decline by -0.5 and -0.2 percent, respectively.

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES State worker cuts ‘made us feel like we didn’t matter’

• The approval of the $79-billion budget for the 2016 fiscal year has some state workers left without jobs; over 1,235 full time jobs were cut.

• Some of the job cuts have been credited to improvements in the states IT department, so there is no longer a need for services to be completed by people, but rather by computers.

• Gov. Scott has been focused on growth in the private sector and trimming down on the amount of state workers. Along with the job cuts in the 2016 budget, Gov. Scott has asked state agencies to cut their payrolls by five percent. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, August 20, 2015


T allahassee

Arena District – ‘The economic impact would be huge’ • Tallahassee is looking at a new Arena District project, which would include the construction of a convention center, hotel, college of business, entrepreneurial space and more. The estimated cost is between $350 million and $500 million.

• The convention center is the focal point of the project, as it will bring in economic development and tourism. The total project would cover 20 acres in its core, near the university’s capital complex and downtown.

• Architects have been hired to create some proposals and conduct early studies of what can be done. This new arena district is highly ambitious and talked about in the Tallahassee community, as it will have a high economic impact on the area. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, August 7, 2015 Florida Angel Nexus invests $500K in big data startup

• A Tampa-based company is now relocating to Tallahassee after the Florida Angel Nexus of Tallahassee invested $500,000 into the company. The company in question, NewSci, is trying to change the way big data is discovered, gathered, and interpreted for the education, nonprofit, and health care sectors. • The company co-founder and CEO, David Lawson, plans on hiring more employees over the next few years.

• Vendor spaces are available on a monthly basis to crafts people and antique dealers. The art park sees about 7,000 visitors on First Fridays.

• The warehouse space located in the shop will become a Museum and Art Gallery in three to five years. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, July 21, 2015 Arianna Airport Center proposal grounded

• The proposal for the Arianna Airport Center, a development project spanning over 14 acres, has been denied by the Tallahassee-Leon County Planning Commission. The area is between north of the airport, Lake Bradford Road, and the Florida State Reservation south. • Some of the land area is environmentally sensitive and is a protection zone for springs. Residents in the Lake Bradford Neighborhood are worried petroleum fuel could impact drinking water in the area with a lack of certain protective provisions.

• The project developer is trying to change the zone from the office residential district to the Arianna Airport Center Planned Unit Development zoning district in hopes that will help get the project approved. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, September 2, 2015

• The number of investors and the amount they are investing into this company gives startups a real hope of being successful. This also attracts new companies into the Tallahassee area and retains the businesses already in the area. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, August 12, 2015 Shibui Antique Gallery new to Railroad Square Art Park

• Railroad Square Art Park at 617 Industrial Drive is getting a new antique shop, selling furniture, ceramics, books, kitchenware, clothing, and handcrafted jewelry. Prices vary from one dollar to a few hundred for special art pieces. Institute for Economic Competitiveness

81


T allahassee Tallahassee MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

Florida & Tallahassee Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

1

1.5

15000.0

8.0%

13500.0

6.0%

13000.0 12000.0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 FL Unemployment Rate Tallahassee Unemployment Rate

11500.0

(Thousands)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Real Gross Metro Product

Tallahassee Real Personal Income

Tallahassee Payroll Employment 8.0%

(percent change year ago)

6.0%

180.0

4.0%

175.0

2.0%

170.0

0.0% -2.0%

165.0

82

(Millions 2000 $)

12500.0

4.0%

160.0

3

14500.0 14000.0

185.0

2.5

Tallahassee Real Gross Metro Product

10.0%

2.0%

2

-4.0% 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Tallahassee Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2015

-6.0%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Real Personal Income


T allahassee

Annual Outlook for Tallahassee, FL

September 2015

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

13.0 5.5 6.8 6.2 12.9 4.7 35.1 34.9 39.8 1.3

13.8 6.5 6.8 7.0 13.4 3.8 37.1 36.0 40.1 0.9

13.3 -3.4 6.8 6.5 12.7 -4.8 35.6 34.0 40.9 1.9

13.5 1.2 6.9 6.6 12.7 0.0 36.1 34.1 41.1 0.4

14.1 4.2 7.2 6.8 13.1 2.8 37.4 34.9 41.9 1.9

14.6 4.0 7.5 7.1 13.6 3.7 38.8 36.0 42.7 2.1

15.3 4.4 7.8 7.4 14.0 3.0 40.1 36.7 44.3 3.6

16.2 5.9 8.2 7.9 14.5 3.9 41.9 37.6 45.9 3.6

17.1 5.6 8.7 8.4 15.1 3.6 43.7 38.5 47.6 3.8

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 169.2 168.0 166.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.1 -0.7 -1.0 Manufacturing 3.7 3.3 3.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.1 -11.2 -3.9 Nonmanufacturing 165.5 164.7 163.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.1 -0.5 -1.0 Construction & Mining 6.4 6.1 5.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -9.1 -4.5 -4.0 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 22.2 22.3 22.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.9 0.7 -0.7 Wholesale Trade 3.3 3.3 3.2 Retail Trade 17.3 17.5 17.4 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 1.6 1.6 1.6 Information 3.1 3.2 3.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -9.1 3.6 3.6 Financial Activities 7.4 7.5 7.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.1 0.9 -4.1 Prof & Business Services 18.1 18.4 18.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.6 1.4 -1.1 Educ & Health Services 19.6 19.9 19.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.4 1.4 -0.6 Leisure & Hospitality 16.2 16.2 16.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.3 0.0 3.5 Other Services 9.5 8.9 9.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.2 -5.7 3.1 Federal Government 2.1 1.9 1.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.0 -9.1 -0.5 State & Local Government 60.9 60.3 58.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.0 -1.1 -2.6

167.4 0.7 3.1 -2.3 164.3 0.8 6.2 5.5 22.8 2.6 3.2 17.8 1.7 3.4 3.8 7.3 1.6 18.5 1.7 19.7 -0.3 17.2 2.8 8.8 -3.8 2.0 3.6 58.4 -0.5

171.8 2.6 2.9 -4.5 168.9 2.8 6.3 1.7 23.6 3.8 3.3 18.6 1.8 3.9 14.7 7.2 -1.0 19.1 3.0 20.5 4.4 18.0 4.4 9.2 3.8 1.9 -2.4 59.1 1.2

174.5 1.6 2.8 -3.4 171.7 1.7 5.9 -6.0 24.9 5.4 3.3 19.8 1.8 3.9 -1.8 7.2 -0.2 19.3 1.1 21.0 2.3 19.4 8.1 9.3 1.6 2.0 3.9 58.8 -0.6

176.3 1.0 2.8 -0.3 173.4 1.0 6.2 5.3 25.0 0.4 3.3 19.9 1.8 3.8 -0.8 7.2 -0.2 19.9 3.1 21.5 2.1 19.7 1.3 9.3 0.2 2.0 -0.8 58.9 0.2

179.1 1.6 2.9 1.4 176.2 1.6 6.7 8.1 25.1 0.3 3.4 19.8 1.9 4.0 3.6 7.1 -0.5 20.8 4.8 21.8 1.6 19.8 0.5 9.4 0.4 2.0 -1.3 59.5 1.1

181.3 1.2 2.9 1.2 178.4 1.2 7.0 4.4 25.2 0.5 3.5 19.8 1.9 4.0 -0.2 7.1 -1.0 21.4 2.6 22.1 1.3 20.1 1.6 9.4 0.4 1.9 -1.2 60.2 1.2

374.1 -0.2 186.9 -0.6 6.4 1186.6 610.7 576

375.9 0.5 189.8 1.6 5.8 1276.8 678.4 598

377.6 0.5 190.2 0.2 5.1 1397.7 744.0 654

381.2 1.0 196.0 3.1 4.4 1884.5 1057.9 827

386.2 1.3 200.8 2.5 4.1 2176.5 1311.7 865

391.1 1.3 204.7 1.9 4.1 2246.2 1353.2 893

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

369.4 1.1 190.7 0.9 8.4 662.6 605.7 57

371.9 0.7 190.0 -0.3 8.3 786.1 567.0 219

374.9 0.8 188.0 -1.1 7.4 993.7 495.7 498

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

83


T allahassee

Quarterly Outlook for Tallahassee, FL

September 2015

2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

14.7 4.3 7.5 7.2

14.8 3.8 7.6 7.2

15 4 7.7 7.3

15.2 4.5 7.8 7.4

15.4 4.2 7.9 7.5

15.6 4.9 8 7.6

15.8 5.5 8.1 7.7

16.1 5.9 8.2 7.9

16.3 6 8.3 8

16.5 6 8.4 8.1

16.8 5.9 8.5 8.3

17 5.7 8.6 8.4

17.2 5.6 8.7 8.5

17.4 5.4 8.8 8.6

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

13.6 4

13.7 3.4

13.8 2.7

13.9 3.2

14 2.8

14.2 3.2

14.3 3.6

14.5 4

14.6 4.1

14.7 3.9

14.9 3.8

15 3.6

15.1 3.5

15.2 3.3

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

39 36.1

39.2 36.3

39.6 36.5

39.9 36.6

40.3 36.8

40.7 37

41.2 37.3

41.7 37.5

42.1 37.7

42.6 38

43.1 38.2

43.5 38.4

43.9 38.6

44.3 38.7

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

42.8 2.5

43.3 2.6

43.7 3.1

44.1 3.8

44.5 3.8

44.8 3.6

45.2 3.6

45.6 3.6

46.1 3.6

46.5 3.7

46.9 3.8

47.4 3.8

47.8 3.8

48.3 3.9

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

174.4 1.2

175 0.5

175.4 0.5

175.9 1.2

176.5 1.2

177.3 1.3

178.2 1.6

178.9 1.7

179.4 1.6

179.9 1.4

180.4 1.2

181 1.2

181.7 1.3

182 1.2

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

2.8 -4.7

2.8 -4.7

2.8 -3.1

2.8 -0.8

2.8 1.3

2.8 1.4

2.9 1.5

2.9 1.5

2.9 1.3

2.9 1.3

2.9 1.3

2.9 1.3

2.9 1.2

2.9 1.1

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

171.7 1.3

172.2 0.6

172.6 0.5

173 1.2

173.7 1.2

174.5 1.3

175.3 1.6

176 1.7

176.5 1.6

177 1.5

177.5 1.2

178.1 1.2

178.8 1.3

179.1 1.2

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

5.8 -9

5.8 -8.2

6 -3

6.2 4.7

6.3 9.4

6.5 10.8

6.6 10.1

6.7 9

6.8 7.5

6.9 6

6.9 4.9

7 4.6

7.1 4.4

7.1 3.8

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

25 5.3

25.1 5.2

25 1.6

25 0.6

25 -0.1

25 -0.4

25 0

25.1 0.3

25.1 0.5

25.1 0.4

25.1 0.4

25.2 0.4

25.2 0.6

25.2 0.4

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.3 20 1.8

3.3 20 1.8

3.3 19.9 1.8

3.3 19.9 1.8

3.3 19.8 1.8

3.3 19.8 1.8

3.4 19.8 1.9

3.4 19.8 1.9

3.4 19.8 1.9

3.4 19.8 1.9

3.4 19.8 1.9

3.5 19.8 1.9

3.5 19.8 1.9

3.5 19.8 1.9

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

3.9 -2.5

3.9 -1.9

3.8 -0.4

3.8 0.4

3.8 -1.2

3.8 -2

3.9 2.2

4 4

4 4.1

4 4.1

4 0.7

4 -1

4 -0.2

4 -0.1

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.1 0

7.2 -0.9

7.2 -0.4

7.2 0

7.2 0

7.2 -0.3

7.1 -0.5

7.1 -0.4

7.1 -0.4

7.1 -0.8

7.1 -1

7.1 -1

7.1 -1

7 -0.9

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

19.3 1.1

19.4 -1

19.6 1.7

19.7 2.8

19.9 3.4

20.3 4.6

20.6 5.2

20.8 5.6

20.9 4.9

21 3.7

21.2 2.8

21.3 2.6

21.5 2.7

21.5 2.3

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

21.1 1.7

21.2 2.1

21.2 1.7

21.4 2.3

21.5 2.2

21.7 2.3

21.7 2.1

21.8 1.9

21.8 1.4

21.9 1

21.9 1.1

22 1.1

22.1 1.3

22.2 1.5

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

19.6 9.3

19.7 6.3

19.7 3

19.7 1.6

19.7 0.5

19.7 0

19.7 -0.1

19.7 0.2

19.8 0.8

19.9 1.2

20 1.3

20.1 1.7

20.2 1.7

20.2 1.6

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

9.2 0.2

9.3 -0.4

9.3 -1.8

9.3 0.2

9.4 1.3

9.4 1

9.4 0.8

9.4 0.5

9.4 0.3

9.4 0.1

9.4 0.1

9.4 0.3

9.4 0.5

9.4 0.7

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

2 4.9

2 2.8

2 -0.8

2 -0.2

2 -0.9

2 -1.2

2 -1.3

2 -1.3

1.9 -1.3

1.9 -1.2

1.9 -1.3

1.9 -1.3

1.9 -1.2

1.9 -1.2

58.7 -1.3

58.7 -1.6

58.8 -0.6

58.8 0.5

58.9 0.4

59.1 0.6

59.3 0.9

59.5 1.1

59.6 1.2

59.8 1.3

60 1.2

60.2 1.2

60.3 1.1

60.4 1.1

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

377.8 0.4

378.6 0.6

379.5 0.8

380.6 0.9

381.8 1

383.1 1.2

384.4 1.3

385.5 1.3

386.8 1.3

388.1 1.3

389.4 1.3

390.5 1.3

391.7 1.3

392.9 1.2

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

190.9 0.5

192.4 1

194 1.9

195.4 4.5

196.8 3

198 2.9

199.1 2.6

200.3 2.5

201.5 2.4

202.5 2.3

203.3 2.1

204.2 2

205.2 1.8

206 1.7

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

84

4.9

4.7

4.6

4.4

4.3

4.2

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.1

1455 760 695

1634 835 799

1789 916 873

1841 998 843

1891 1100 790

2017 1217 800

2101 1279 822

2180 1315 866

2203 1324 878

2222 1329 893

2242 1348 894

2238 1365 873

2251 1358 893

2254 1342 912

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2015


T ampa – S t . P ete r sbu r g – C lea r w ate r

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater MSA is comprised of Hernando, Hillsborough, Pasco, and Pinellas counties. Located centrally on the west coast of Florida, this region includes Tarpon Springs, Sponge Docks, Ybor City, Bush Gardens, the University of South Florida and the University of Tampa. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Tampa Bay Rays call this region home.

The Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show moderate growth in the economic indicators relative to the other MSAs studied. Personal income growth is expected to be 5.5 percent on average each year, and the real per capita income level will average $41,100. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.1 percent. The average annual wage level will be $52,900. Population growth will average 1.4 percent, and Tampa is forecasted to have the second highest average Gross Metro Product in the studied areas, averaging a level of 124, 409.70 million dollars.

QUICK FACTS:

• Metro population estimate of 2,870,569 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Hernando County population estimate of 174,441 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Hillsborough County population estimate of 1,291,578 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Pasco County population estimate of 475,502 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Pinellas County population estimate of 929,048 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 1,433,450 in July 2015 (Florida Research and Economic Database). • Unemployment rate of 5.4% as of July 2015, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 76,951 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database).

TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• • • • • • • • • •

Hillsborough County School board – 29,603 MacDill Air Force Base – 15,485 Pinellas County School District – 13,905 Hillsborough County Government – 9,328 Pasco County School District – 9,289 Verizon Communications, Inc. – 9,065 University of South Florida – 8,353 Tampa International Airport – 8,060 Tampa General Hospital – 6,900 Publix Food Centers – 5,823

Employment growth is expected to average 2.2 percent annually. The unemployment rate is expected to average a moderate 5.1 percent.

The fastest growing sector in the Tampa area will be the Construction and Mining sector with an average annual growth rate of 5.6 percent. This is followed by the Leisure sector and Professional and Business Services sector a with average annual growth rates of 3.9 percent and 3.5 percent, respectively. None of the sectors are expected to decline.

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES 52-story tower proposed on former Trump Tower site in downtown Tampa • Plans for a large, mixed-use tower have been proposed in downtown Tampa.

• The 576,000-square-foot tower would contain bottom floor office space, 203 residential units, and a restaurant. Parking would accommodate 630 vehicles. • There are numerous potential difficulties that the project could encounter, including foundation problems, but if the project is successful, it would represent yet another example of Tampa’s growing development. Source: Tampa Bay Times, July 21, 2015

Sources: Pasco County School District, Pinellas County School District, 2011 Comprehensive Annual Financial Report: Tampa Port Authority Institute for Economic Competitiveness

85


T ampa – S t . P ete r sbu r g – C lea r w ate r

A quarter of Tampa Bay Borrowers are sill underwater on their mortgages • Statistics by RealtyTrac show that 24.8 percent of all Tampa Bay borrowers owe at least 25 percent more than their property’s value. This is considered “seriously” underwater, according to RealtyTrac. • There are only a few other cities in the U.S. that have higher underwater rates, including Lakeland, Cleveland, Las Vegas, Akron, and Orlando.

• Tampa’s percent of underwater homeowners is also almost double the nation’s average of 13.3 percent. Source: Tampa Bay Times, July 30, 2015 Commission votes to increase Pinellas’ tourist tax

• The Pinellas County Commission voted to increase the county tourist tax from 5 to 6 cents per dollar, beginning on January 1, 2015.

• The commission is undecided on the best use of revenues from the additional tourist tax. A spending plan needs to be approved by the end of the year; otherwise, the additional revenues will just be stored in reserves.

• Pinellas County currently collects about $35 million per year, and this additional revenue could bring total tourist tax revenues to $42 million. • Possible uses of the revenues include a new stadium for the Tampa Bay Rays, a renovation of the Al Lang Stadium, or a training facility for the Toronto Blue Jays. Source: Tampa Bay Times, August 4, 2015 Progressive Insurance plans to hire more than 300 for its Tampa office • Progressive Insurance announced that it is hiring sales representatives for its Tampa contact center and plans to hire 333 employees by the end of the year.

• Average pay for these positions will range from $14 to $17 per hour.

86

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2015

• Progressive’s Tampa center currently houses 2,400 employees, and this hiring round will be the company’s biggest since 2012. Source: Tampa Bay Times, July 28, 2015 Tampa Electric to build largest solar array in Tampa Bay • Tampa Electric Co., the subsidiary of TECO Energy, plans to build a solar facility composed of 70,000 solar panels on 125 acres, supporting 25-megawatts of power (enough to power up to 3,500 homes).

• This represents a step forward for Florida’s solar power industry, but the state is still behind, says Scott McIntyre, the CEO of Solar Energy Management, LLC. Florida ranks number 18th in solar power implementation.

• According to McIntryre, the Florida solar power industry could grow at a much faster pace if Florida laws were change to end the ban on the private generation and sale of solar power. Source: Tampa Bay Times, August 4, 2015 Gas prices dip below $2 a gallon at some Tampa Bay gas stations

• On September 10th, gas prices dropped to under $2 per gallon within some parts of the Tampa Bay area. According to GasBuddy.com, some Tampa gas stations were selling gas for prices as low as $1.97. • One of the reasons for the recent drop in gas prices is the switch to lower blends of gasoline by gas refineries. Crude oil prices are low worldwide. According to AAA The Auto Group, the average price for gas in Florida for the same day was $2.20.

• Lower gas prices often have the effect of boosting consumer confidence and consumer spending, as consumers have a little extra change in their pockets for other purchases and travel becomes cheaper. Source: Tampa Bay Times, September 10, 2015


T ampa – S t . P ete r sbu r g – C lea r w ate r Tampa - St. Petersburg - Clearwater Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

Florida & Tampa Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

0.4

0.6

0.8

Tampa Real Gross Metro Product 140000.0

6.0%

110000.0

4.0%

100000.0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 FL Unemployment Rate Tampa Unemployment Rate

90000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

(Thousands)

1300.0 1250.0 1200.0 1150.0 1100.0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Tampa Payroll Employment

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Real Gross Metro Product

Tampa Real Personal Income

Tampa Payroll Employment

1050.0

1.4

120000.0

8.0%

1350.0

1.2

130000.0

10.0%

2.0%

1

8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

(percent change year ago)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

87


T ampa – S t . P ete r sbu r g – C lea r w ate r

Annual Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

September 2015

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

106.7 6.3 51.3 55.4 106.2 5.5 38.2 38.0 45.9 1.4

112.1 5.0 53.0 59.1 108.6 2.3 39.6 38.4 46.7 1.7

113.5 1.3 55.6 57.9 108.4 -0.2 39.8 38.0 47.9 2.6

116.0 2.2 57.3 58.8 109.5 1.0 40.3 38.0 48.1 0.6

121.0 4.2 60.1 60.9 112.6 2.9 41.4 38.6 49.2 2.2

126.8 4.8 63.0 63.8 117.7 4.5 42.8 39.7 50.2 2.1

133.4 5.2 66.7 66.6 122.1 3.7 44.3 40.6 51.9 3.4

141.4 6.1 70.5 70.9 127.1 4.1 46.4 41.7 53.7 3.4

149.6 5.7 74.2 75.3 131.7 3.7 48.3 42.6 55.7 3.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 1105.5 1122.9 1148.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.0 1.6 2.3 Manufacturing 58.1 58.8 59.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.1 1.1 1.2 Nonmanufacturing 1047.4 1064.2 1089.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.8 1.6 2.4 Construction & Mining 52.8 52.7 54.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -12.2 -0.3 2.9 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 209.3 213.3 219.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.6 1.9 2.7 Wholesale Trade 45.9 46.3 48.5 Retail Trade 138.3 141.3 144.0 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 25.1 25.8 26.6 Information 25.7 25.9 25.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.6 0.6 -0.5 Financial Activities 89.3 91.5 95.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.1 2.5 4.4 Prof & Business Services 174.1 182.4 190.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.5 4.8 4.6 Educ & Health Services 177.9 180.9 182.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.0 1.6 0.8 Leisure & Hospitality 121.3 122.9 128.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.6 1.3 4.4 Other Services 41.9 41.3 41.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.7 -1.6 -0.5 Federal Government 24.0 22.9 22.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.5 -4.6 -1.2 State & Local Government 130.9 130.4 129.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.6 -0.4 -0.5

1176.8 2.4 60.0 1.0 1116.7 2.5 57.0 5.1 223.0 1.8 48.9 146.7 27.3 26.1 1.4 99.7 4.3 198.3 3.8 184.7 1.3 133.3 3.9 42.4 3.3 22.7 0.4 129.6 -0.1

1208.5 2.7 61.2 2.0 1147.3 2.7 60.5 6.1 231.5 3.8 50.4 152.5 28.6 25.6 -1.8 102.4 2.7 202.8 2.3 188.8 2.2 139.0 4.3 44.1 3.9 22.9 0.9 129.8 0.2

1241.2 2.7 61.8 0.9 1179.4 2.8 62.0 2.6 237.7 2.7 51.5 156.3 29.9 25.6 -0.2 103.4 1.0 205.2 1.2 196.5 4.1 150.6 8.4 45.5 3.2 23.5 2.5 129.5 -0.3

1272.2 2.5 62.3 0.9 1209.8 2.6 66.4 7.0 240.1 1.0 52.6 156.3 31.1 25.3 -1.2 104.9 1.5 214.5 4.5 202.4 3.0 156.6 3.9 46.5 2.3 23.6 0.6 129.7 0.2

1300.9 2.3 63.0 1.0 1237.9 2.3 71.5 7.6 242.1 0.9 53.9 156.0 32.2 26.2 3.4 105.6 0.7 226.5 5.6 206.2 1.9 158.5 1.2 46.7 0.3 23.4 -1.0 131.4 1.3

1320.9 1.5 63.5 0.8 1257.4 1.6 75.2 5.2 244.0 0.8 55.0 156.1 32.9 26.2 0.1 105.7 0.1 232.7 2.8 208.8 1.3 161.7 2.1 46.9 0.4 23.1 -1.1 133.0 1.3

2880.2 1.0 1424.3 0.8 7.0 11604.8 7250.2 4355

2921.0 1.4 1442.6 1.3 6.1 11717.0 7200.0 4517

2963.8 1.5 1435.0 -0.5 5.4 15932.7 9772.5 6160

3007.2 1.5 1461.5 1.9 5.1 18838.4 11956.9 6881

3050.8 1.4 1490.2 2.0 5.0 19973.4 13654.7 6319

3093.8 1.4 1514.7 1.6 4.9 20735.1 14265.7 6469

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

88

2795.7 1.0 1384.9 0.8 11.1 6362.6 4529.5 1833

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2015

2830.2 1.2 1398.3 1.0 10.0 6965.7 4513.4 2452

2851.7 0.8 1412.4 1.0 8.3 9060.6 5926.1 3134


T ampa – S t . P ete r sbu r g – C lea r w ate r

Quarterly Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

September 2015

2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

128 5.3 63.3 64.7

129 4.9 64.4 64.6

130.9 5.4 65.4 65.5

132.3 5.1 66.2 66.1

134.1 4.8 67.2 67

136.1 5.5 68.2 67.9

138.4 5.8 69.2 69.3

140.4 6.1 70.1 70.4

142.4 6.2 70.9 71.5

144.5 6.1 71.8 72.6

146.8 6 72.8 74

148.6 5.8 73.7 74.9

150.5 5.7 74.7 75.8

152.4 5.5 75.7 76.7

118.5 5

119.5 4.6

120.6 4.1

121.4 3.7

122.5 3.4

123.9 3.7

125.3 3.9

126.5 4.2

127.7 4.2

128.8 4

130.2 3.9

131.2 3.7

132.2 3.6

133.2 3.4

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

43.1 39.9

43.3 40.1

43.8 40.3

44.1 40.4

44.5 40.7

45 41

45.6 41.3

46.1 41.5

46.6 41.8

47.1 42

47.7 42.3

48.1 42.5

48.6 42.7

49 42.8

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

50.3 2.3

50.8 2.5

51.3 2.7

51.7 3.6

52.2 3.8

52.6 3.5

53 3.3

53.5 3.3

53.9 3.4

54.4 3.4

54.9 3.5

55.4 3.7

55.9 3.7

56.5 3.9

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

1247.4 2.7

1255.1 2.7

1261.5 3.1

1267.8 2.3

1275.1 2.2

1284.3 2.3

1292.4 2.5

1298.7 2.4

1303.7 2.2

1308.7 1.9

1313.6 1.6

1318.7 1.5

1324.2 1.6

1327.1 1.4

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

61.9 0.9

62 0.8

62.1 1.1

62.2 0.4

62.5 0.9

62.6 1.1

62.8 1.1

62.9 1.1

63 0.9

63.2 0.9

63.3 0.8

63.4 0.9

63.5 0.8

63.6 0.7

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

1185.4 2.8

1193.1 2.8

1199.4 3.2

1205.6 2.4

1212.7 2.3

1221.7 2.4

1229.6 2.5

1235.9 2.5

1240.7 2.3

1245.5 1.9

1250.3 1.7

1255.3 1.6

1260.6 1.6

1263.5 1.4

62.1 1.2

62.9 4.2

64.4 5

65.8 6.4

67 7.9

68.4 8.8

69.7 8.3

71 7.9

72.1 7.6

73.1 6.8

73.9 6.1

74.8 5.4

75.7 4.9

76.3 4.4

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

238.5 2.4

239.8 2.2

239.6 1.9

239.7 1.1

240.1 0.7

240.8 0.4

241.3 0.7

241.9 0.9

242.4 1

242.9 0.9

243.3 0.8

243.9 0.8

244.5 0.9

244.4 0.6

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

51.8 156.3 30.3

52.1 157.1 30.6

52.3 156.6 30.8

52.5 156.3 31

52.7 156.1 31.2

53.1 156.1 31.6

53.4 156 31.9

53.7 156.1 32.1

54 156.1 32.3

54.4 155.9 32.6

54.6 155.9 32.8

54.9 156 32.9

55.1 156.4 33

55.3 156.1 33

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

25.6 -0.7

25.7 0

25.4 -0.5

25.4 -0.7

25.2 -1.4

25.1 -2.3

25.9 1.9

26.4 3.7

26.2 4

26.1 4.2

26.1 0.9

26.2 -0.7

26.3 0.2

26.2 0.2

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

103.7 0.6

104.3 0.8

104.7 2.6

104.8 1.4

104.8 1.1

105.2 0.8

105.4 0.7

105.6 0.8

105.7 0.8

105.7 0.5

105.8 0.3

105.8 0.1

105.8 0.1

105.6 -0.1

206 0.8

207.3 1.3

210 3.7

212.3 3.5

215.6 4.7

220.3 6.3

224.1 6.7

226 6.4

227.2 5.4

228.7 3.8

230.6 2.9

232.2 2.7

233.7 2.9

234.5 2.5

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

197.1 4

198.6 3.8

199.8 3.3

201.7 2.4

203.3 3.1

204.8 3.1

205.2 2.7

206.1 2.2

206.6 1.6

207.1 1.2

207.7 1.2

208.5 1.1

209.3 1.3

209.9 1.3

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

154.1 10.3

155.6 9.3

156.3 9

156.3 4.7

156.7 1.7

156.9 0.8

157.3 0.6

157.8 0.9

158.9 1.4

159.9 1.9

160.4 2

161.3 2.2

162.2 2.1

163 1.9

46 4.5

46.2 2.8

46.4 4.2

46.5 3.1

46.6 1.2

46.6 0.8

46.6 0.5

46.6 0.3

46.7 0.2

46.7 0.2

46.8 0.3

46.8 0.4

46.9 0.5

47 0.6

23.6 3.1

23.6 1.1

23.7 2.2

23.6 0.8

23.6 -0.1

23.5 -0.6

23.5 -0.9

23.4 -1

23.3 -1.1

23.3 -1.1

23.2 -1.1

23.1 -1.2

23.1 -1.1

23 -1

128.7 -0.8

129 -0.9

129.1 -1.2

129.5 0

129.8 0.8

130.2 0.9

130.7 1.2

131.1 1.3

131.6 1.4

132 1.4

132.5 1.4

132.9 1.3

133.2 1.2

133.6 1.1

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2969.1 1.5

2979.8 1.5

2990.9 1.5

3001.6 1.5

3012.6 1.5

3023.8 1.5

3034.3 1.5

3045.3 1.5

3056.3 1.4

3067.2 1.4

3078.1 1.4

3088.6 1.4

3099.1 1.4

3109.3 1.4

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1433.3 -0.9

1441.3 -0.3

1449.9 0.9

1457.6 2

1465.6 2.3

1473.1 2.2

1480.1 2.1

1486.6 2

1493.9 1.9

1500.2 1.8

1506 1.7

1511.6 1.7

1517.8 1.6

1523.4 1.5

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.2

5.2

5.1

5.1

5.1

5.1

5

5

5.1

5.1

5

5

4.9

4.9

17299 10345 6954

17902 10746 7156

18272 11171 7101

18532 11564 6968

18892 12122 6769

19658 12970 6688

19887 13430 6457

19960 13641 6319

19948 13728 6220

20099 13820 6279

20496 14118 6378

20679 14351 6328

20830 14342 6488

20935 14251 6684

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

89


I n d ust r y L ocation Q uotient

E X P L A N AT I O N A N D I N T E R P R E TAT I O N This technique compares the local economy to a reference economy; in this case, the local economy is the chosen MSA, and the reference economy is the state of Florida. An Industry Location Quotient (LQ) is calculated to determine if the local economy has a greater share of each industry’s employment than the reference economy. The LQ helps to identify specializations that exist in the local economy. There are only three possible outcomes: 1. An LQ greater than one 2. An LQ equal to one and 3. An LQ less than one. An LQ that is greater than one means that the share of local employment in that particular industry is greater than the reference economy employment share in that same industry. This implies that some of the goods or services produced by that industry are exported for consumption elsewhere. An LQ of one means that local demand is met by the local industry. No goods/services are imported or exported from the local area in that industry. The share of local employment in that industry is equal to the share for that industry in the reference economy. An LQ less than one implies that the industry is not meeting local demand for that good or service, and in order to meet demand, that area must import that good or service. This also means that the share of local employment in that industry is less than the share of employment in that industry for the reference economy.

C A L C U L AT I O N An industry location quotient is a calculated ratio of two ratios. LQ = ((Local employment in industry A in year T / Total local employment in year T) / (Reference economy employment in industry A in year T) / (Total reference employment in year T)) For example: Orlando MSA employment for Information is 27,400 Total Orlando MSA nonagricultural employment is 1,104,100 Florida employment for Information is 169,800 Total Florida nonagricultural employment is 8,247,000 LQ = ((27,400 / 1,104,100) / (169,800 / 8,247,000)) = 1.2039 Source: Florida Regional Economic Database, Current Employment Statistics, December 2006

90

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2015


SEAN M. SNAITH, PH.D.

We would like to recognize the following organizations for their support of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness:

Sean Snaith, Ph.D., is the director of the University of Central Florida’s Institute for Economic Competitiveness and a nationally recognized economist in the field of business and economic forecasting. An award-winning forecaster, researcher and professor, Snaith has served as a consultant for governments and multi-national corporations such as Compaq, Dell and IBM. Before joining UCF’s College of Business Administration, he held teaching positions at Pennsylvania State University, American University in Cairo, the University of North Dakota and the University of the Pacific. Snaith is frequently interviewed in national and regional media and is a sought-after speaker. He has been quoted in The Wall Street Journal, USA Today, The New York Times, The Economist and CNNMoney.com and has appeared on CNBC, Fox Business Network and Business News Network, based in Toronto. Known for his engaging presentations, Snaith earned praise from one business editor for having an “uncanny knack for making economics not only understandable but interesting.” Snaith is a member of several national economic forecasting panels, including The Wall Street Journal’s Economic Forecasting Survey, the Associated Press’ Economy Survey, CNNMoney.com’s Survey of Leading Economists, USA Today’s Survey of Top Economists, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s Survey of Professional Forecasters, Bloomberg and Reuters. Snaith was named by Bloomberg News as one of the nation’s most accurate forecasters in 2008. In 2007, he was named California’s most accurate forecaster by the Western Blue Chip Consensus Forecast. Snaith holds a B.S. in Economics from Allegheny College and an M.A. and Ph.D. in Economics from Pennsylvania State University. FOR MORE INFORMATION Sean Snaith, Director Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida P.O. Box 161400 Orlando, FL 32816 PH: 407.823.1451 FAX: 407.823.1454 E-MAIL: sean.snaith@ucf.edu www.iec.ucf.edu


UNIVERSITY OF CENTRAL FLORIDA College of Business Administration Institute for Economic Competitiveness P. O . B o x 1 6 1 4 0 0 , O r l a n d o , F l o r i d a 3 2 8 1 6 P H 4 0 7. 8 2 3 . 1 4 5 3 FA X 4 0 7. 8 2 3 . 1 4 5 4 w w w. i e c . u c f . e d u

Florida & Metro Forecast September 2015  

Florida & Metro Forecast September 2015

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