OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF UKRAINE
Securing a strong and resilient economy
Kyiv 6 May 2025
The economic outlook remains uncertain
Source: OECD Economic Outlook database.
Improving public finances to support the reconstruction
Fiscal sustainability will require both lower deficits and growth-enhancing reforms
Public and publicly guaranteed
debt
% of GDP, alternative policy scenarios
Primary budget at balance, baseline structural reforms
Primary budget surplus at 1% of GDP, baseline structural reforms
Primary budget surplus at 1% of GDP, accelerated structural reforms
Note: The stock of public debt includes USD 50 billion (27% of 2024 GDP) of financing provided by the G7's Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration Loans. These loans will not incur interest or repayment costs for Ukraine under broad conditions.
‘Baseline structural reforms’ assumes 2.5 million externally displaced people return, that the employment rate rises from 55.5% to 60.8% in 2050, that the capital-to-output ratio goes to close to the OECD average of 3.42; and that the World Bank rule of law indicator improves from -0.66 in 2021 to 0 in 2050.
‘Accelerated structural reforms’ assumes twice the number of net returnees (5 million); that the employment rate converges to that of OECD and peer countries at 64% by 2050; that higher investment raises the capital-to-output ratio to 3.56; and that the World Bank rule of law indicator improves from -0.66 in 2021 to 1 in
Engaging with Ukrainians abroad and supporting their return would bolster the labour force
Emigrants
Immigrants
Note: The definition of inflows includes asylum seekers and foreign population.
Source: International Organization for Migration; the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees; State Statistics Service of Ukraine.
Improving the business environment
Reducing the scope of state-owned enterprises would make markets more competitive
Accommodation
Source: Ministry of Economy; State Statistics Service of Ukraine.
For more information
Disclaimers:
The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use of such data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the West Bank under the terms of international law. This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.