SURVEY
@OECD @OECDeconomy www.oecd.org/economy/greece-economic-snapshot/
OECD 2023 ECONOMIC
OF GREECE Navigating the headwinds to sustainable growth Athens, 10 January 2023
Economic activity has recovered swiftly from the COVID-19 crisis
Real GDP, index 2020 Q1 = 100
Source: OECD Economic Outlook (database).
2
2 80 85 90 95 100
2019 2020 2021 2022
105 110
Index 2020 Q1 = 100 Greece OECD
Employment has grown strongly
Employment, index 2017 = 100 Greece OECD EU OECD
Note: OECD EU : 22 OECD countries being also EU Member states.
OECD Economic Outlook (database).
3
Source:
90 95 100 105 110 115 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
3
Fiscal support is being gradually unwound
Government primary balance and underlying primary balance
Note: Primary balance excludes net interest payments. Other definitions, such as that used by the European Commission, excludes only the interest paid. The underlying government primary balance is the actual primary budget balance net of the cyclical component and excluding net government transactions having a transitory budgetary effect that do not lead to a sustained change in the budgetary position.
Source: OECD Economic Outlook 112 (database), updated.
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 %
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Primary balance, % of GDP Underlying primary balance,% of potential GDP
Surging energy prices have lifted inflation until recently
Note: December 2022 observations are flash estimates. Core, headline and energy inflation are based on the harmonised consumer price index. Core inflation excludes energy and food products.
Source: OECD Price Statistics database; and Eurostat Flash Estimates.
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5 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 % %
← Core inflation ← Headline inflation Energy inflation →
Inflation
Business confidence has become more muted
Business confidence
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Source: Eurostat.
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
6
% balance of positive versus negative answers, seasonally adjusted
% balance, s.a. Industry Retail Services
Investment is projected to support GDP growth
Annual % change
Economic Outlook 112 (database), updated.
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Source: OECD
2022 2023 2024 Gross domestic product 5.1 1.1 1.8 Private consumption 8.0 0.5 1.4 Gross fixed capital formation 8.5 2.5 5.0 Exports of goods and services 5.1 -0.5 2.9 Current account balance (% of GDP) -7.1 -8.9 -8.8 Employment 6.2 1.1 0.3 Harmonised consumer price index 9.5 3.7 2.3 Fiscal balance (% of GDP) -4.3 -2.6 -1.7 Primary budget balance (% of GDP) -1.6 0.5 1.5 Government gross debt (Maastricht definition, % of GDP) 175.1 170.7 163.6
SUSTAINABLE PUBLIC FINANCES TO SUPPORT A CONTINUING RECOVERY
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A falling public debt ratio will take sustained structural reforms and fiscal discipline
Public debt (Maastricht definition), % of GDP
RRF fully implemented, primary surplus at 1.5% of GDP, spreads fall to 120bps
RRF fully implemented, primary surplus at 1.0% of GDP, spreads fall to 170bps
Recommended policies continue RRF reforms, primary surplus at 1.5% of GDP, spreads fall to 120bps
Recommended policies continue RRF reforms, primary surplus at 1.0% of GDP, spreads fall to 170bps
Source: OECD calculations.
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30 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 210 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Support spending that fosters skills, investment and heath care
Note:
Source: OECD (2022), OECD Economic Outlook 112 (database), updated; OECD (2022), National Accounts Statistics (database).
The OECD averages are not weighted and do not include Canada, Mexico, New Zealand and Türkiye.
expenditure by broad functions
of GDP,
or latest 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Public investment Education Health Social protection excl. old age Compensation of employees Old age % of GDP OECD Greece 10
Public
%
2020
Expanding the tax base and boosting compliance can support revenues
Note: The VAT Gap is the overall difference between expected VAT total tax liabilities estimated from VAT legislation and ancillary regulations and actual consumption expenditure, and the amount actually collected.
Source: EC (2022), Directorate-General for Taxation and Customs Union, VAT gap in the EU: 2022.
11 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 SWE NLD ESP PRT AUT BEL GRC ITA %
2020 2016
VAT gap estimates
RAISING EMPLOYMENT AND INVESTMENT TO SUSTAIN GROWTH
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Strengthening banks’ health can expand finance for investment
13 0 5 10 15 20 25 ISR GRC AUS ESP TUR PRT AUT ITA OECD SWE % Regulatory tier 1 capital to risk-weighted assets, Q2 2022 or latest
Note: The unweighted OECD average excludes New Zealand. Source: IMF, Financial Soundness Indicators database.
A high share of firms in Greece remain very small
Note: Categories are in number of employed persons.
Source: OECD Structural and Demographic Business Statistics (database).
enterprises
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 DEU NZL FRA AUT BEL POL HUN PRT ITA GRC 1-9 10-19 20-49 50-249 250+ 14
Employment in the business economy across
according to their size, 2020 or latest
More flexible working arrangements can raise employment, especially among women
Employment rates, %
% Women, 15 and over Greece OECD
Source: OECD Labour Force Statistics (database).
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
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PREPARING FOR A CHANGING CLIMATE AND A NET ZERO EMISSION ECONOMY
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0 20 40 60 80 100
Greece is on track for its emissions reduction targets
GHG emissions
2030: -55% 2040: -80%
Note: GHG emissions include land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF). Preliminary data for 2019. The reductions for 2030 and 2040 are relative to the 1990 GHG emission level.
17
120
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Source: OECD (2022), Environment Statistics (database). 17
140
Mt CO2 eq. Total emissions (historic) Projections to meet targets
Total
GHG emissions per unit of GDP, 2020 or latest
18 Note: Greenhouse gas (GHG) excluding LULUCF emissions intensity per unit of GDP, kg/USD, 2015 PPP. Source: OECD (2022), Environment Statistics (database).
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 SWE DNK FRA GBR AUT ESP ITA NLD DEU PRT BEL LTU HUN SVN TUR JPN ISR OECD GRC CZE USA POL KOR CAN AUS CO2
Reaching net zero will require reducing emission intensity 18
Kg/USD
Pricing emissions more consistently would harness more low-cost reductions
Effective carbon rates in Greece
Source: OECD Centre for Tax Policy and Administration.
Average price by sector across instruments, 2021 19
Note: For each sector, the bubble size is proportional to the GHG emissions from the sector.
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0 50 100 150 200 250 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Agriculture and fisheries Off-road transport Buildings Industry Road transport Other sectors Electricity
ECR, EUR/tCO2 Cumulated GHG emissions, MtCO2
The bulk of emissions come from energy, transport and buildings
GHG emissions by source sector in Greece, 2020
Waste, 6% Energy industries, 33%
Agriculture, 10%
Industrial processes and product use, 14%
Energy use, 70%
Energy use, of which:
Transport, 21%
Source OECD (2022), Environment Statistics (database).
Other emissions from energy, 1%
Residential and other sectors, 9% Manufacturing industries and construction, 6%
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20
Greece has great scope to shift traffic off the road to cut transport emissions
Use of railway network for passenger transport, 2019 In million of passenger-km per km of railway line in use
Source: EC (2021), EC Transport Pocketbook 2021.
21
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 GRC NOR
ESP
EU
21
TUR
PRT
AUT ITA CHE
Renovating buildings would improve their energy efficiency and well-being
Source: OECD (2021), Brick by Brick: Building Better Housing Policies, OECD Publishing, and Eurostat.
22
22 0 5 10 15 20 25 ISL EST POL EU ITA ESP GRC PRT
TUR % Share of population unable to adequately warm their home, 2020 or latest available
Note:
Low-income groups would benefit from targeted compensation for emission prices
23
price
income.
Graph show the estimated direct and indirect impact of a EUR 120 carbon tax
floor on household
Estimated increase in household spending of EUR 120 carbon price floor 23 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 up to 750 751-1100 1101-1450 1451-1800 1801-2200 2201-2800 2801 and over Households by disposable income category, EUR Total cost per month, % of base income
Source: Calculation based on data from the Greece Household Budget Survey 2018; IEA (2021), Energy prices (database); and OECD data on carbon embodied in trade from Environment Statistics (database).
Higher insurance coverage can better share the costs of climate change damages
Note: To account for single events with large losses, results are shown as average of two measures: (a) the share of total insured losses in economic losses (b) the average of the share of losses included for each event, giving each event equal weight.
Source: OECD (2021), Enhancing Financial Protection Against Catastrophe: The Role of Catastrophe Risk Insurance Programmes.
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24 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 ISR GRC PRT CHL
ESP
%
SWE
CAN USA AUS
Share of economic losses insured for wildfire, 1990 to 2019
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