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About the GFP
The Global Forum on Productivity (GFP) was created in 2015 from an initiative of several teams in different parts of the OECD (Economics Department and Directorate for Science, Technology and Innovation) and endorsed by their respective OECD committees, namely the Economic Policy Committee (EPC), the Committee on Industry, Innovation and Entrepreneurship (CIIE) and the Economic Development Review Committee (EDRC). The GFP revolves around three axes – research, convening and communication – which draw upon, complement, and enhance the work already designated within the work programme of these Committees.
As a platform for mutual exchange of information and ideas, the GFP is a forum to discuss the latest analyses and best practices in public policy through which governments combine efforts to uncover the structural and policy factors behind the productivity slowdown. Through this concerted mission to foster international collaboration, the GFP gives government institutions the opportunity to discuss their views on institutional setups, share data and knowledge and undertake joint policy analysis.
The present Activities Report summarises the work carried out by the GFP over 2024 and is structured in four sections: (i) About the GFP; (ii) Research; (iii) Events; and (iv) Communication.
Co-chairs of the Steering Group in 2024
The Steering Group of the GFP appoints co-chairs to coordinate the activities of the Forum. In 2024, the GFP co-chairs were Rodrigo Krell (Chile), Stefan Profit (Germany), Ottavio Ricchi (Italy) and Ihssane Slimani Houti (France).
Rodrigo Krell is the executive director of Chile’s National Evaluation and Productivity Commission. He is an economist specialising in Industrial Organisation. He has also served as Head of Regulation and Research at the Ministry of Economy and Chief Economist at InvestChile. Currently, he is also an Adjunct Professor at the Faculty of Economics and Business at the University of Chile.
Stefan Profit holds position of a Deputy Director General in the Economic Policy Department of the German Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Action. His directorate deals with macroeconomic developments, economic analyses and projections. Before assuming this position, he was in charge of a unit focusing on the empirical research in the field of inclusive growth, productivity and investment, as well as assessing growth and distributional effects of structural reforms. During previous assignments in the ministry, he worked in the field of labour market reform and energy policy, foreign economic affairs, policy planning, and served as a personal advisor to the Minister. Previous to his engagement within the federal government he worked for the Bertelsmann Foundation. He has an academic background in labour economics holding a doctoral degree in Economics from Humboldt University Berlin.
Ottavio Ricchi is Head of Unit in the Italian Ministry of Economy and Finance. He is responsible for potential output and structural public finance estimates, debt sustainability projections and productivity analysis, and he was formerly in charge of the macroeconomic forecasts unit and of the liaison unit with the EU-Economic Policy Committee. He is the chair of the EU-Output Gap Working Group. He graduated from the University of Naples and holds an MSc in economics at the University of York (UK) and a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Exeter (UK). His main areas of interest include productivity analysis, economic modelling, public finance, and international economics.
Ihssane Slimani Houti is Deputy Assistant Secretary for Macroeconomic Policies at the French Treasury. Before starting this position in March 2023, she was Head of Export Credit Finance on Aerospace, Defence and Shipping and Head of Tax Policy and Public Spending Unit. She joined the Directorate General of the Treasury in 2010 as Deputy Head of the Tax Policies Unit and worked at the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE) as an economist before becoming Deputy Secretary General of the Paris Club from 2016 to 2018. She holds degrees in economics and business from École Normale Supérieure (Cachan), Sciences Po Paris, and École Nationale de la Statistique et de l’Administration Économique (ENSAE).
unemployment ratios), while mismatches are assessed based on qualification gaps in various sectors (share of employment that holds a qualification different than the modal employed worker in the specific occupation, country and sector). Structural trends are measured using a combination of country trends and sectoral exposure to them (shift-shares), which limits the likelihood of biases in the analysis (endogeneity).
Findings show that labour market tightness increased significantly before the COVID-19 pandemic. Knowledge-intensive sectors, such as finance, healthcare, and ICT, saw the most pronounced increase in tightness, while professional services contributed heavily to the aggregate increase, due to their large share of total employment. Qualification mismatches were also widespread, with nearly half of OECD workers being either overqualified or underqualified. Knowledge-intensive industries reported the highest mismatch levels. Over
2010-19, overqualification increased while underqualification declined.
The econometric analysis shows that decarbonisation and digitalisation worsened labour tightness and temporarily increased overqualification, as the “twin” green and digital transitions require substantial complementary human capital to progress, increasing the demand for scarce green and digital skills. Workforce ageing reduced the supply of highly skilled workers, increasing tightness in the medium run, but also forcing firms to rely on less-qualified employees. Deglobalisation, particularly through reduced import penetration, also contributed to labour tightness. AI overall reduced tightness and overqualification by automating tasks, though when AI complemented human labour, the effects reversed. Magnitudes are relevant: for example, closing half the gap between a country’s decarbonisation efforts and the economies at the frontier in decarbonisation would increase tightness by 0.3 percentage points.
Percentage change (0.1 = 10%) increase in tightness in sectors most exposed to ageing (resp. decarbonisation) after a 1% increase in ageing (decarbonisation), today until four years from now
AGEING
DECARBONISATION
Notes: The graph reports the estimated coefficients of a local projection regression of (log-)tightness on a lagged economic trend term (ageing, decarbonisation), while controlling for all others. All regressions include country/sector and country/time fixed effects, as well as controls for two lags of the outcome, lagged sectoral production, cost of labour and the share of workers with at least a bachelor degree. Confidence intervals at 95%.
Source: Dorville, Filippucci and Marcolin (2025) based on European Labour Force Survey, US Current Population Survey, Canada Labour Force Survey, Australian HILDA, Encuesta Continua de Empleo for Costa Rica and PNAD Continua for Brazil (employment by qualification and unemployment). OECD estimates based on Lightcast, Eurostat, Statcan, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Australian Bureau of Statistics (vacancies).
FIGURE 1: THE DYNAMIC RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MEGATRENDS AND TIGHTNESS
These findings highlight the need for adaptive policies to mitigate the impact of structural economic trends on labour shortages and mismatches. Policymakers can address these issues by investing in education, vocational training, and adult learning to improve skills
supply. Labour force participation could be also boosted through migration policies, childcare support, and tax reforms. Greater telework flexibility and more effective labour mobility policies (licensing reforms, active labour market programmes), can also help improve job matching.
Five facts about labour shortages in firms
Despite growing attention to labour shortages, capturing their full extent and impact remains difficult, especially in a harmonised way across countries. In particular, most existing indicators do not measure the phenomenon at the firm level, where shortages are likely to increase operational, training and recruitment costs. Addressing this gap, the OECD launched a new survey of firms aiming to examine the extent, causes, and consequences of shortages while maintaining a high level of cross-country comparability through standardised data collection. The 2024 GFP Employer Survey on Labour Shortages is the first cross-country employer-based data collection on
the topic at the OECD. It collected responses from 20 000 firms across 34 OECD countries, Brazil, and South Africa.
Five key facts emerge from the collected data and are described in the forthcoming paper “The firm side of labour shortages”.
First, labour shortages are widespread and severe, with 80% of firms reporting recruitment difficulties on average across country, and 30% of them reporting severe shortages. Sectors such as manufacturing, healthcare, ICT, professional services, and construction are particularly affected.
Share of firms reporting recruitment difficulties, 2022-2023, GFP countries
Note: Respondents were asked if their firm encountered any difficulties in recruiting employees in the last 24 months. Severe shortages occur if all or most of the opened vacancies in the firm were hard to fill.
Source: Filippucci, Laengle and Marcolin (2025), based on GFP Employer Survey data. 0.0 0.1
FIGURE 2: FIRMS REPORT SEVERE DIFFICULTIES FINDING PERSONNEL
2024 Annual Conference of the OECD Global Forum on Productivity
Theme: “Boosting Growth and Productivity: The Role of Human Capital”
Date and Location: 15-16 October 2024, Paris
The OECD Global Forum on Productivity (GFP) held its 2024 Annual Conference in Paris, cohosted by the French Ministry of Economy, Finance and Industrial and Digital Sovereignty, France Stratégie, and the OECD. The event convened highlevel policymakers, renowned academics, and civil society representatives to explore the crucial role of human capital in driving productivity growth.
Against the backdrop of challenges such as the green transition, digital transformation, and the rapid advancement of technologies like artificial intelligence (AI), the conference provided a platform for discussing strategies to address skills gaps, improve workforce adaptability, and boost productivity in the post-pandemic era.
The first day of the conference opened with remarks by Marc Ferracci, Minister Delegate for Industry, and Mathias Cormann, OECD Secretary-General. Jonathan Haskel from Imperial College delivered the keynote address, examining the factors driving the global productivity slowdown and highlighting the critical role of human capital in reversing this trend.
Subsequent sessions developed different key themes. In the first session, experts including Stefan Profit (Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Action, Germany), Dorothée Rouzet (Treasury, France), Álvaro Pereira (OECD), and Catherine de Fontenay (Australian Productivity Commission) discussed the causes of the productivity slowdown and proposed actionable recommendations.
The second session focused on the importance of investing in the right skills, with insights from Jonathan Barr (ISED), Luca Marcolin (OECD), and Maria Guadalupe (INSEAD and France’s Conseil d’analyse économique). Chaired by Alain Durré (France Stratégie), the discussion highlighted how education and training policies can better align with the demands of the modern workforce.
The day concluded with a session on the green transition, chaired by Daniel Mawson (Department for Business and Trade, United Kingdom), where Lone Ank (Ministry of Industry, Business and Financial Affairs, Denmark), Géraldine Mahieu (DG ECFIN, European Commission), and Rodrigo Krell (National Productivity Commission, Chile) explored whether the transition presents more
“Productivity is really about creating good jobs and investment in OECD countries”
Jonathan Barr, Senior Director, ISED, Canada
1 From left to right:
Melissa Vega Monge (Costa Rica), Richard Samans (International Labour Organization (ILO)), Serge Allegrezza (STATEC) and Laura Hospido (Spain).
“Governments need to pay attention to the progress in inclusiveness, to ensure that disadvantaged groups such as women and less skilled workers receive sufficient education and are able to integrate in the labour market”
Melissa Vega Monge, Economist, Central Bank of Costa Rica
opportunities or risks for productivity. Amélie de Montchalin (Permanent Representative to the OECD, France) provided a summary of the first day.
The second day began with opening remarks by Bertrand Dumont (Treasury, France) and Alain de Serres (OECD). Natacha Valla from the French National Productivity Board presented an overview of productivity challenges and opportunities followed by a discussion from Juan Francisco Jimeno Serrano (Spanish National Productivity Board and Bank of Spain). Kristina McElheran (University of Toronto and Rotman Business School) delivered a keynote speech on the potential of artificial intelligence to address productivity issues, followed by a discussion with Philippe Aghion (College de France and the London School of Economics), Takayuki Sako (Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan), and Jens Lundsgaard (OECD).
The conference concluded with a session on human capital, productivity, and inclusiveness. This discussion, chaired by Serge Allegrezza (STATEC), featured Richard Samans (ILO), Melissa Vega Monge from Costa Rica (Central Bank, Costa Rica), and Laura Hospido (Ministry of the Economy, Commerce and Business, Spain). The panel
explored how to ensure that productivity growth benefits are shared inclusively across societies.
In their closing remarks, Dorothée Rouzet (French Treasury) and Álvaro Pereira (OECD) summarised the conference’s key insights and outlined the next steps for integrating these findings into national and international policymaking.
Conference website: https://oe.cd/GFP2024
Watch the highlights of the conference: https://youtu.be/zC-cSE_UZjg
4 Alvaro Pereira (OECD) .
Communication
The communication activities of the OECD Global Forum on Productivity (GFP) in 2024 focused on disseminating information about GFP events, productivity-related research, data, and relevant resources from contributing countries. To achieve this, the GFP team relied on a range of tools, including:
l GFP Website: A hub for information on events, findings, and updates.
l OECD Productivity Working Paper Series: Sharing in-depth analyses and research.
l Social Media: Leveraging social media platforms to reach a broader audience.
l Newsletters: Circulating periodic GFP Updates and other announcements to subscribers.
l O.N.E Community Page: A password-protected platform enabling streamlined exchanges among GFP Steering Group contributors.
These tools ensured effective communication and enhanced engagement within the productivity research and policy community.
GFP updates
The GFP biannual newsletter serves as a key communication tool, bringing together the latest updates on GFP activities, previews of upcoming events, and highlights of productivity-related contributions from GFP partners. With a subscriber base of over 400, the newsletter reaches a diverse audience, including policymakers, researchers, business representatives, and OECD colleagues, ensuring broad dissemination of valuable information and insights.
Productivity working papers
May 2024, Occupational reallocation and mismatch in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic
By Gabriele Ciminelli, Antton Haramboure, Lea Samek, Cyrille Schwellnus, Allison Shrivastava and Tara Sinclair
December 2024
Human capital at work
By Chiara Criscuolo, Peter Gal and Lukas B. Freund
The GFP invites voluntary paper submissions from its supporters, which are published as part of the OECD Productivity Working Paper Series.
New GFP website
As part of the launch of the newly redesigned oecd.org, the OECD Global Forum on Productivity (GFP) is excited to introduce its updated website. The new site offers an enhanced user experience, with improved navigation, updated content, and new features designed to provide easier access to information on GFP events, research, and initiatives. We encourage readers to explore the website, discover its new tools and resources, and share it with contacts and network. By doing so, readers will help increase awareness of the GFP’s work.
Social Media and Press
The GFP actively connects with its community through social media platforms, enabling direct communication and the rapid sharing of information about its activities. In 2024, the GFP’s social media presence grew significantly, driven by the creation of original content, including videos, interviews, highlights and targeted communication strategies. This increased engagement played a crucial role in boosting the visibility of the Annual Conference, marking it as a key success indicator. The vibrant interactions on both platforms contributed to heightened awareness and broader participation, reflecting the growing impact of the GFP’s outreach efforts.
