OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF THE NETHERLANDS Sustaining the
The Hague, 29 June 2023
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recovery
After a strong rebound from COVID-19, economic growth has now stalled
Note: Euro area refers to EA-17, comprising the EU Member States that adopted the euro as their common currency before 2014.
Source: OECD Economic Outlook: Statistics and Projections (database).
Real GDP 2016Q1=100 80 90 100 110 120 80 90 100 110 120 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Netherlands OECD Euro area
Energy
Note: Headline inflation refers to the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP). Core inflation excludes changes from food and energy.
Source: Statistics Netherlands (CBS).
Inflation
inflation has receded, but core inflation remains high
Y-o-y % change
- 5 0 5 10 15 20 - 5 0 5 10 15 20 Energy contribution Headline Core
Banks should remain vigilant to the impacts of a cooling housing market
Real house prices
Note: A four-quarter moving average is applied to the series of dwellings sold and new constructed dwellings. Euro area refers to EA-17. Source: OECD Economic Outlook: Statistics and
Index 2015 = 100
80 100 120 140 160 180 80 100 120 140 160 180 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Netherlands OECD Euro area
Projections (database); Statistics Netherlands (CBS).
Fiscal policy was supportive during successive economic shocks
Note: * data for 2021 and 2022 are provisional.
Source: Statistics Netherlands (CBS).
Government revenue and expenditure EUR billion 290 310 330 350 370 390 410 430 290 310 330 350 370 390 410 430 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021* 2022* Revenue Expenditure
Growth is expected to pick up after slowing in 2023
Source: OECD Economic Outlook: Statistics and Projections (database).
2022 2023 2024 Real GDP growth, % 4.5 0.9 1.4 Unemployment rate, % 3.5 3.7 4.0 Consumer price index (harmonised), % 11.6 3.2 2.2 Fiscal balance, % of GDP 0.0 -1.0 -0.7
REDUCING DISTORTIONS TO SUPPORT PRODUCTIVITY
Productivity growth has been slow, including by
Source: OECD Productivity Statistics (database).
Average productivity growth, 2010-2021 Annual % change - 2 - 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 - 2 - 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 GRC LUX MEX NLD GBR ITA FIN ESP BEL FRA NOR PRT AUT JPN USA CHE NZL CAN DEU OECD SWE AUS ISL DNK HUN SVN CZE ISR EST CHL SVK POL KOR CRI LTU LVA TUR IRL
international comparison
Boosting private non residential investment could support productivity growth
Capital per worker
Contribution to potential growth (% points)
Note: Capital per worker measures the ratio of productive capital (excluding residential investment) to employment and reflects capital intensity.
Source: OECD Economics Department Long-Term Model.
Reducing distortions in the tax system can steer investment towards more productive uses
Note: A EUR 500 000 investment without debt financing is assumed. The tax rates displayed account for taxes on the return to investment and show the equivalent of an annual tax on the asset value.
Source: Based on OECD Economic Survey of the Netherlands OECD 2021.
Effective tax rate, % of asset value 0 . 0 0 . 2 0 . 4 0 . 6 0 . 8 1 . 0 1 . 2 1 . 4 1 . 6 1 . 8 2 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 2 0 . 4 0 . 6 0 . 8 1 . 0 1 . 2 1 . 4 1 . 6 1 . 8 2 . 0 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Owner occupied housing Investments in shares and bonds
LIFTING LABOUR SUPPLY TO TACKLE TIGHTNESS
Labour market tightness predates the pandemic
Labour market tightness vacancies per 100 unemployed
Note: OECD average based on 23 countries with available data; Euro area (EA-17) average based on 13 countries with available data.
Source: OECD Labour Market Statistics (database); Eurostat.
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 NLD OECD Euro area
The decline in the working-age population will weigh on growth
Contribution of working-age population share to growth in potential GDP per capita
% points
- 0 . 5 - 0 . 4 - 0 . 3 - 0 . 2 - 0 . 1 0 0 . 1 0 . 2 - 0 . 5 - 0 . 4 - 0 . 3 - 0 . 2 - 0 . 1 0 0 . 1 0 . 2 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035
Source: OECD Economics Department Long-Term Model.
Incentives to move from part- to full-time work and more affordable childcare should be increased
Income lost to
higher
taxes/lower benefits when moving from part-time to full-time, 2022 or latest
% of gross earnings
Net childcare cost, 2021 or latest
% of average wage
Note: LHS includes social assistance, temporary in-work benefits and housing benefits; see Fig. 2.10 and 2.12 in the Survey for details.
Source: OECD Benefits, Taxes and Wages (database); OECD Social and Welfare Statistics (database).
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 KOR ISR JPN CZE NZL SWE POL GBR USA ESP NOR AUS CHE FRA GRC CAN AUT OECD PRT DNK FIN DEU ITA IRL NLD BEL 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 ITA DEU AUT SWE KOR NOR POL PRT ESP GRC DNK SVK JPN ISR OECD FRA FIN BEL AUS NLD GBR IRL CZE CAN USA CHE
Better use of migration potential could reduce labour shortages in some occupations
Gap in labour market participation between the foreign- and the native-born, 2021 % points
Source: OECD Migration Statistics (database).
More and higher-quality adult learning is critical
Public spending on training, 2019
% of total active labour market policies spending
Source: OECD Statistics on Labour Market Programmes (database).
Attracting and retaining quality teachers is urgent to prepare for future labour demand
Primary school teachers’ salaries, 2021
% of similarly educated workers’ salaries
Note: The hatched section represents the upward effect of the 2022 pay scale reform. See Fig. 2.17 in the Survey for details.
Source: OECD Education at a Glance (database).
ACCELERATING THE GREEN TRANSITION
More needs to be done to achieve ambitious emission reduction targets
Greenhouse gas emissions reductions in relation to 1990 levels, % 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Realisation Adopted + proposed policy as of May 2022 - upper and lower bound Legislated 2030 emission reduction target of 55 %
Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL).
Source:
Increasing the share of energy from renewables is key to meet climate targets
Share of energy from renewable sources, 2021 %
Source: Eurostat.
More specific R&D support can boost the availability and efficiency of low-carbon technologies
Environmentally related government R&D budget
% total government R&D, 2021 or latest
Source: OECD Green Growth Indicators (database).
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