CO2 emissions from residential buildings: will they go to zero by the middle of the century?

CO2 emissions from residential buildings: will they go to zero by the middle of the century?

Thibaut ABERGEL, Energy Technology Analyst, IEA OECD, Paris, February 24th, 2020 IEA IEA 2019.

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2019.

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The energy sector Energy sector related final energy use and CO2 emissions, 2018

Buildings accounted for 36% of final energy use and 39% of global energy and process related CO 2 emissions in 2017, when power generation and material production are included.

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Residential sector emissions reached an all-time high Residential sector CO2 emissions, 1990-2018

CO2 emissions from the residential sector have been growing steadily, reaching nearly 6 GtCO 2 in 2018.

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Implications on a new Policy Scenario (NPS) Final energy use New trends

© OECD/IEA 2019

Buildings energy demand modelling: model flow Activity Structure

Performance

Starting from socio-economic inputs, the buildings sector model considers structural demand drivers and related useful energy demand, which are then applied across buildings end uses and technology choices.

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Assessing policy impacts on energy and emissions Building energy codes coverage and stringency improvement

Policy coverage and stringency improvement are essential modelling inputs affecting technology choice and performance.

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AC ownership is expected to soar Evolution of global air conditioner ownership

By 2050, around 2/3 of the world’s households could have an air conditioner.

China, India and Indonesia will account for half of all AC units in buildings in 2050.

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Keeping cool is a growing need Mean annual cooling degree days (2007-17)

Air conditioning is being driven by increasing expectations of thermal comfort – as well as the need for cooling in buildings to be healthy and productive.

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Digitalisation: a driver for energy demand growth?

Household electricity consumption of appliances and other small plug loads 6 000

TWh

5 000 4 000 3 000 2 000 1 000 0

2010

2015

2020

2025

Network-enabled

2030

2035

2040

Not connected

The growth in network-enabled devices increases needs for standby power control and potential for rebound effect.

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Final energy use could continue to grow Final energy use for residential buildings under the New Policy Scenario, 1990-2050

In the New Policy Scenario, accounting for existing and planned policies, energy demand from residential buildings grows unsustainably to exceed 110 EJ in 2050.

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A Paris agreement-compatible scenario Technology needs Low-carbon policies

Cost implications

Š OECD/IEA 2019

Improving building envelopes is a priority ď Ź Building envelopes (off track)

billion m2 420000

Global buildings stock to 2050 in a sustainable development scenario Index 2018 = 100

120

350000

100

280000

80

210000

60

140000

40

70000

20

0

0

Other buildings Deep renovations Deep renovations High performance construction Average performance

High-performance new construction needs to become the market norm, and mandatory energy codes need to expand across all countries.

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Act now to avoid energy demand tomorrow Consequences of a ten-year delay in achieving building envelope objectives

Delaying building envelope measures would result in the equivalent of three years of additional energy consumption for heating and cooling in the buildings sector.

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Technology is ready for deployment Heat pump readiness index relative to regional heating demand, 2017

Today heat pumps could supply around 90% of heating needs with a lower CO 2 footprint than gas boilers, particularly in major heating markets such as Canada, China, Europe and the United States.

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Source: IEA (2018), Perspectives for the Clean Energy Transition

The decarbonisation of heat relies on rapid market shifts ď Ź Heating Heating technology sales, 2010 - 2030

The share of fossil fuels in heating equipment sales needs to drop while more efficient and renewable heating sales nearly triple by 2030.

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Energy policies can address price dynamics in decision making Operating cost of heating equipment based on energy prices and equipment performance, 2018 Online options: 1- Select province

Energy policy can help to improve the performance and lower the cost of heat pumping technologies to make those investments more attractive.

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Smart and efficient buildings are key to flexible electricity use 1= 2017 d a ily p ea k

Example weekday electricity load profile for an apartment in Europe in 2050

3

2

1

0 Base electricity load

Electrified heat

Electric

Smart and efficient electric heating

Electricity growth in buildings will place greater pressure on power systems, but efficient and smart equipment can reduce the overall load and distribute demand more evenly.

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Policies and innovation are needed to avoid a cold crunch Air conditioner seasonal energy performance to 2030

Energy performance standards and product innovation are needed to improve AC performance by more than 50% by 2030.

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Towards net-zero operational and embodied carbon Emissions reduction from cement and steel use in buildings using material efficiency strategies, 2017-50

Material efficiency measures could reduce upstream emissions from cement and steel use in buildings by 23% and support decarbonisation of those industries.

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Upfront investments for long-term savings Annual capital expenditure and energy spending in the Faster Transition and New Policies scenarios, 2020-50

While capital investments increase over the coming decade in the Faster Transition Scenario, longterm savings in energy spending globally lead to net positive returns by 2050.

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Policy priorities Upgrade regulatory frameworks, including:

 Existing instruments (building energy codes, certifications, labelling, performance-based standards, energy-efficiency funding schemes…)  LCAs (an integrated approach to account for externalities)  Energy pricing (to accelerate fuel shifting and promote participation to demand side-response) Bridge the gaps of a fragmented sector:

 Alliances need to bring together manufacturers, utilities, consumers and service providers  Standardisation is key to product and service compatibility Tailor actions to end-user needs:

 Policies should target high-potential sectors to build up expertise  Technology packaging is key to bring down costs while offering enhanced energy services  New business models (including ESCOs) are essential to address upfront costs Communication is essential to ensure consumer buy-in

 End-users need a clear idea of why technology is changing IEA 2019. All rights reserved.

In the end… do we hit netzero emissions?

© OECD/IEA 2019

The CO2 released to heat buildings could drop nearly 90% by 2050 Global CO2 emissions from space and water heating in the IEA’s faster transition scenario

?

How to achieve deep buildings decarbonisation?

Efficient and clean energy technology solutions, coupled with low-carbon power generation, cut buildings-related CO2 emissions by nearly 90% by 2050, while global floor area nearly doubles.

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‌ answer in the forthcoming ETP 2020 publication The world’s guidebook on clean energy technologies Main role: better understand future technology needs and opportunities Main audience: decision-makers in governments and industry Multiple angles: When can each sector cost-effectively hit net-zero emissions?

Net-zero emissions When can each sector cost-effectively hit net-zero emissions?

Innovation CCUS and hydrogen

What are the technology RD&D needs?

Where would CCUS be crucial for the decarbonisation of the energy sector?

January Approximate timeline March 2020 2020

September 2019 Analysis

Drafting

Publication Peer-review

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June 2020 Launch

thibaut.abergel@iea.org Thank you!

Perspectives for the clean energy transition: the critical role of buildings

https://webstore.iea.org/perspectives-for-the-clean-energy-transition

Tracking clean energy progress

https://www.iea.org/tcep/buildings/

https://www.iea.org/futureofcooling/

The future of cooling

Material efficiency strategies in the clean energy transitions

https://www.iea.org/publications/reports/MaterialEfficiencyinCleanEnergyTransitions/ IEA IEA 2019.

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2019.

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LEDs promise a brighter future Residential lighting sales by type, 2010 - 30

Sales of LEDs are on track, although effort is still needed to phase out less efficient technologies.

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Buildings energy indicators: forecasting Air conditioner ownership as a function of income

Including temperature and humidity when projecting AC ownership improves the assessment.

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Buildings energy indicators: example Floor area per person as a function of income S-curve equation Â

Floor area per person could also be presented as a S-shaped function of average income per capita.

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Support for innovation can identify appropriate market solutions Heat distribution relative to outside temperature by province, 2018 Online options: 1- Select province

1% of heat demand

8% of heat demand

91% of heat demand

Appropriate technology solutions for extreme weather events would allow heating and cooling equipment to be appropriately sized for the bulk of operations and run at high efficiencies.

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