OBRIEN REAL ESTATE IS A LEADING VICTORIAN AGENCY NETWORK WITH DEEP EXPERTISE ACROSS MELBOURNE’S CENTRAL & OUTER EAST. WE COMBINE RIGOROUS DATA ANALYSIS WITH ON‑THE‑GROUND MARKET KNOWLEDGE TO HELP INVESTORS MAKE CONFIDENT DECISIONS.
A GUIDE TO PROPERTY TRENDS, MARKET MOVEMENTS, AND INVESTMENT INSIGHTS ACROSS MELBOURNE’S CENTRAL & OUTER EAST
Melbourne’s central east to outer east arc offers a unique blend of established leafy streets, blue-chip school zones and a wave of new infrastructure that is set to recalibrate travel times, job density and lifestyle amenity.
Westfield Knox’s $355 million reboot, the Metro Tunnel (2025), The Suburban Rail Loop East’s, 6 underground train stations and the North East Link (2028) collectively knit these suburbs more tightly to the CBD and to each other, while town square renewals in Boronia, Croydon and Mooroolbark seed café culture into once sleepy retail strips.
Population growth is now quality led rather than volume led: ABS data show tertiary educated residents and dual income families expanding at twice the metropolitan rate, vacancy averages sit near 1 percent, and school zone premiums in Vermont, Glen Waverley and Mount Waverley continue to command record land prices.
Yet pockets such as Bayswater, Mooroolbark and Ferntree Gully still transact 25 percent below their inner east equivalents, creating an “affordability meets amenity” gap for astute buyers.
Axis applies a five‑pillar framework to identify they drivers of growth.
1. Infrastructure Development
2. Population Growth & Demographics
3. Economic / Employment Growth
4. Government Planning / Policy
5. Market Cycle
Applying these benchmarks to 25 key suburbs, we help investors and home buyers align strategy, whether yield, growth or balanced, to each location’s evolving fundamentals.
SUBURB METHODOLOGY SELECTION
AFFORDABILITY
Either low prices suiting buyers on a budget or relative affordability compared to nearby suburbs.
AMENITY
Being the level of lifestyle benefits, from bars and restaurants to boutiques and parklands.
FAMILY APPEAL
Such as dwelling type, perceived safety and proximity to good schools.
LOCATION
Including proximity to the CBD or major hubs, or closeness to natural amentities like beaches.
INVESTMENT PROSPECTS
From rental market conditions to expected imminent upside.
GENTRIFICATION
Being the changing face of a suburb
POPULATION GROWTH
Representing a projected increase in the number of locals.
DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE
Indicating a shift from the current make-up of residents, for example young families replacing downsizing elderly locals.
INFRASTRUCTURE
Looking at major investments in projects that will benefit the suburb or surrounds.
SCHOOLS
Government school zones: Ashwood Primary School, Ashwood High
KEY DEVELOPMENTS
• Markham Ave public housing renewal (250 dwellings + community hub); Gardiners Creek shared path lighting & boardwalk upgrade
GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS
• Café hub growing on High St; post war fibre cottages replaced by dual occupancies; Alfred Rd micro brewery draws Chadstone spill over
POTENTIAL DRAWBACK
Small blocks (<550 m²) can limit extension upside; busy Warrigal Rd traffic noise
SCHOOLS
Government school zones: Bayswater Primary School, Bayswater Secondary College
KEY DEVELOPMENTS
• Mountain Hwy/Bayswater Rd intersection duplication; Bayswater Station TOD master plan (8 storey mixed use, 6 000 m² retail) lodged 2025
GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS
• Warehouse conversions to Pilates & co working near Station St; $60 m Bayswater Station TOD adds retail
POTENTIAL DRAWBACK
Industrial pockets still generate truck traffic; Knox SC catchment boundary can shift.
BLACKBURN
BLACKBURN SOUTH
SCHOOLS Government school zones: Blackburn Primary School, Laburnum Primary School, Box Hill High School
KEY DEVELOPMENTS
• Blackburn Station precinct streetscape makeover; Eastern Fwy noise wall & bus lane upgrade linked to North East Link early works.
GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS
• “Bellbird” heritage area restorations; Laburnum Village brunch strip; Box Hill HS zone premium creeping west
• Swinburne Wantirna campus trades/ vet tech hub upgrade
GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS
• Knox Private Hospital $140 m expansion
• Knox City mall reboot
• Tram link feasibility (Rowville)
POTENTIAL DRAWBACK
Traffic on Stud Rd; oversupply risk from Knox megasite apartments
SCHOOLS
Government school zones: Wheelers Hill Primary School, Brentwood Secondary College
KEY DEVELOPMENTS
• Monash Gallery of Art precinct redevelopment (café, sculpture park)
• Jells Park lake edge boardwalk renewal 2025
GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS
• Monash Gallery of Art precinct upgrade
• Glen Waverley rail trail to Jells Park
• New luxury duplex builds
POTENTIAL DRAWBACK
• Steep blocks , increases build cost
• Ageing split level houses need renovations
$1,210,006
INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT
Three flagship projects will reshape accessibility, employment and lifestyle from Ashwood to Ringwood—and they all converge on Box Hill, Bulleen and Glen/Mt Waverley.
THE METRO TUNNEL
The Victorian Govt approved the Metro Tunnel in February 2015, is the state’s largest rail undertaking since City Loop. Four tunnel boring machines were turning by mid 2019. Two nine kilometre tunnels will link the Sunbury line with the Cranbourne Pakenham corridor, allowing trains to run straight through the city instead of terminating at Flinders Street.
Five new underground stations—Arden, Parkville, State Library, Town Hall and Anzac—are on track to open in late 2025. When they do, peak hour capacity on the Cranbourne–Pakenham pair will jump about 45 per cent and commuters from Glen Waverley or Mount Waverley will no longer need to change platforms in town. Parallel level crossing projects extend the benefits further east: Croydon’s elevated station and civic square are due mid 2026, Boronia’s raised rail and town plaza break ground in 2026, and Mooroolbark’s “sky rail” station—opened in 2021—has already freed up forecourt land now filling with cafés and weekend markets.
NORTH EAST LINK
Complementing the Metro rail upgrade is the North East link, which received planning approval in 2019. An $11 billion road construction contract was entered into by October 2021. The major earthworks on the 6.5 kilometre twin road tunnels between Watsonia and Bulleen began in 2022. Scheduled to open in 2028, the tunnels will lift 15 000 trucks a day off Rosanna, Heidelberg and Bulleen streets while trimming up to 35 minutes from trips between the Eastern Freeway and the M80 Ring Road.
The project also overhauls 34 kilometres of the Eastern Freeway with dedicated express bus lanes and a new 500 space Bulleen Park and Ride, set to open in 2027. Cyclists and walkers gain 35 kilometres of continuous off road trail linking the Yarra and Mullum Mullum creek corridors, plus ten hectares of new parkland along Banyule Creek. For residents and investors
across Box Hill, Bulleen and Glen Waverley, the combined rail and road program compresses travel times, removes heavy traffic from local high streets and seeds new café strips around upgraded station plazas and bus hubs—powerful ingredients for sustained real estate demand in Melbourne’s middle east.
THE SUBURBAN RAIL LOOP (SRL)
The first stage of the Suburban Rail Loop (SRL) is called SRL East, which started construction in mid 2022 and is expected to be completed by 2035. The loop will run 26 kilometres of twin tunnels underground. Stations located at Cheltenham, Clayton, Monash, Glen Waverley, Burwood, and Box Hill, these six underground stations have planned major activity centres around them for high rise complexes, shopping, amenities and recreation. There will be new interchanges within the existing rail stations at Cheltenham, Clayton, Glen Waverley, and Box Hill.
SRL East will have super hubs at Clayton (Monash) and Glen Waverley. Glen Waverley, already a top five school zone, is rezoning 12 ha around Kingsway for mid rise apartments, build to rent towers and a tech coworking hub. Box Hill’s underground interchange anchors a $2 billion air rights redevelopment—two office towers, a health precinct and the CBD scale Box Hill Central makeover—positioning the suburb as Victoria’s second largest employment node.
In addition to SRL East there will also be a second stage, called SRL North, with stations at Doncaster, Heidelberg, Bundoora, Reservoir, Fawkner, and Broadmeadows. This second stage of the project, currently in early planning, it will eventually connect Box Hill to Melbourne Airport. SRL North is expected to be complete by 2053.
Complementing these ‘big three’ is a network of precinct upgrades.
• Box Hill: An ATO tower tops out (19 storeys), the $120 m Epworth Eastern expansion adds 48 oncology beds, and Box Hill Institute’s Health Innovation Centre opens 2027.
• Knox Private Hospital $140 m expansion (2026) and Maroondah Hospital $250 m rebuild (2028) anchor health sector jobs in Wantirna, Ringwood and Vermont.
• Eastland Stage 6 ($1.2 bn) and Westfield Knox ($355 m) add hotel and dining wings, lifting white collar day time populations.
• Bulleen: a $250 m sporting and cultural precinct replaces former tennis centre land, linking to the Yarra Trail via the North East Link’s new green bridge.
• Knox Innovation, Opportunity & Sustainability Centre (KIOSC) Expansion, Wantirna: An $85 million STEM campus extension backed by Swinburne University and Knox Council. Approved in February 2025 and breaking ground early 2026, the project doubles lab space, adds a clean energy testing hall and is forecast to host 700 additional tertiary and industry trainees each year.
• Mount Waverley: Damper Creek boardwalk renewal and the Mount Waverley Village alfresco dining upgrade enhance walkability, while Monash Freeway smart lane works (completed 2024) shave peak trips to the CBD by ten minutes.
Together these investments compress commute times, expand high skill job nodes and entrench land supply constraints—proven drivers of capital growth and resilient yields across Melbourne’s eastern arc.
POPULATION DEMOGRAPHICS
The Whitehorse and Monash municipalities remain the population engines of eastern ring belt. Whitehorse is forecast to grow from roughly 183 000 residents in 2024 to 216 000 by 2041, a 21 percent uplift driven by high rise projects around Box Hill Central and medium density infill in Blackburn and Nunawading.
Monash adds even more heads, a projected 57 000 extra residents between 2021 and 2041 a 30 percent increase, fuelled by international students clustering at Monash University and dual income families circling the Chadstone employment hubs. Manningham, anchored by Doncaster Hill and Bulleen, grows more modestly—16 percent to 145 600 by 2046—because of stricter height controls and limited greenfield land.
Further out, household formation is steady rather than explosive. The City of Maroondah, which covers predominantly covers Ringwood, Croydon and Mooroolbark isis slated to add 24 800 residents by 2041, a 21 percent increase, with most newcomers housed in elevated rail precincts and Eastland apartment towers.
Knox, stretching from Bayswater to Rowville, records a similar trajectory of 25 000 additional people between 2021 and 2046, a 15 percent increase. The Westfield Knox expansion and hospital upgrades will attract the health sector and retail workers into the area to support rental vacancy below 1.5% and support capital value appreciation
OCCUPANCY SNAPSHOT
DEFINITIONS
LABOUR FORCE PERCENTAGE:
The percentage of people working in the labour industry.
BACHELOR PERCENTAGE: The percentage of people with a bachelor’s degree.
OCCUPANCY SNAPSHOT
OCCUPANCY SNAPSHOT
ECONOMIC & EMPLOYMENT GROWTH
The Victorian Government’s Activity Centre Program, aims to build 300,000 new homes within the eventual 60 train and tram activity centres by 2051, of which 25 have been announced so far.
The activity centres aims for housing to be well located by allowing the maximise use of existing infrastructure, services, jobs, green space and public transport. The idea for residents in living in these new zones will make day to day life easier, more convenient, and more sustainable. Here’s a snapshor of what’s planned in our selected Axis suburbs.
• $140 m Knox Private upgrade + Wantirna Health ageing well precinct: 600 medical & allied health jobs
KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES
• Health & wellness
WANTIRNA SOUTH
PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS
• Westfield Knox $355 m Stage 2 & Swinburne Trades Hub: 2 500 jobs
WHEELERS HILL
PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS
• Monash Gallery of Art precinct renewal & Jells Park boardwalk: 280 jobs
KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES
• Retail, vocational training
FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS
• Knox Private ICU tower; Wantirna Ageing Well Hub
KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES
• Arts tourism, café culture
FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS
• Knox Dining & Entertainment wing; Swinburne Tech Hub
FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS
• MGA Sculpture Garden; Jells Park Lakeside Café
DEVELOPMENTS IN CENTRAL & OUTER EAST MELBOURNE
SRL
FIG 13: Box Hill Station as part of
East
FIG 14: Artist impression of North East Trail over Yarra Link green bridge
FIG 15: Artist impression of inside North East Link tunnel
FIG 13
FIG 14
FIG 15
GOVERNMENT POLICY PLANNING
The Labor government’s housing promises from the recent 2025 federal election, focusing on how they plan to support Australians into housing, assist first-home buyers, address deposit challenges, support renters, enhance affordability, and boost home construction.
SUPPORT FOR FIRST HOME BUYERS
Deposit Scheme (Expanded First Home Guarantee)
Labor has expanded the existing First Home Guarantee scheme, allowing all first home buyers to purchase a home with just a 5% deposit without paying Lenders Mortgage Insurance (LMI). Previously, this scheme had income and participant caps, but the expansion removes these limitations, making it accessible to a broader range of buyers. For example, a Sydneysider could buy a $1 million property with a $50,000 deposit, saving up to $20,000 in LMI costs.
Help to Buy Shared Equity Scheme
This initiative enables eligible buyers to co purchase a home with the government, which can contribute up to 40% of the purchase price for new homes (30% for existing homes). This reduces the amount buyers need to borrow, lowering monthly repayments and making homeownership more attainable. Help to Buy is expected to open for applications later this year (following registration of the program directions, passage of state legislation, and implementation by Housing Australia). Purchase price cap increasing to 950k (up from $800k) for Metro Melbourne and 650k for regional (unchanged).
Construction of 100,000 Homes for FirstHome Buyers
Labor has committed $10 billion to build up to 100,000 homes exclusively for first home buyers. These homes will be constructed in partnership with states, developers, and community housing providers, with construction commencing in 2026 27 and occupancy beginning the following financial year.
Housing Australia Future Fund (HAFF)
The HAFF is a $10 billion investment fund aimed at building 30,000 new social and affordable homes over five years. The fund’s returns are used to finance the construction of these homes, addressing the housing supply shortage and improving affordability.
SUPPORT FOR RENTERS
Commonwealth Rent Assistance (CRA) Labor plans to increase the CRA payments to provide additional support to low income renters, helping to alleviate rental stress and improve housing affordability.
Build-to-Rent Incentives
To boost the supply of rental properties, Labor has introduced tax incentives for developers to construct build to rent housing. This initiative aims to deliver approximately 80,000 additional rental units over a decade, increasing rental availability and stabilising prices.
ADDITIONAL MEASURES
Ban on Foreign Purchases of Existing Homes
To prioritise Australian buyers and reduce competition in the housing market, Labor has implemented a two year ban on foreign investors purchasing existing residential properties.
BROADER HOUSING SUPPLY INITIATIVES
National Housing Accord
Labor has set a target to build 1.2 million new homes by mid 2029 through the National Housing Accord. This ambitious plan involves collaboration with state governments and the private sector to accelerate housing construction and address the national housing shortage. One key reason new home construction hasn’t progressed as quickly as the government anticipated is that taxes make up 42% of the total cost of building a new home.
MARKET CYCLE
Melbourne’s central-east and outereast corridor is entering a new phase: not the rapid green-field surge seen in the south-east, but an in-fill “second wind” powered by major transport and health projects.
Median house prices in the mature cores of Glen Waverley, Box Hill and Mount Waverley already trade at, or above, the metropolitan benchmark, yet suburbs on the next ring — Bayswater, Boronia, Croydon and Mooroolbark—remain 20 to 25 percent cheaper than inner-east equivalents while sharing the same upgraded rail and freeway links.
Population forecasts show Whitehorse, Monash, Maroondah, Manningham and Knox together adding almost 130 000
residents by 2046, but with virtually no greenfield land left. That scarcity, combined with vacancy rates sitting near 1.4 percent, underpins resilient rents and low volatility. Investors who lock in family sized homes near future Suburban Rail Loop, North East Link and hospital hubs can expect steady yields around 3 percent and capital growth driven by a tight supply pipeline and rising white collar job density— hallmarks of the next upswing in Melbourne’s eastern arc.
Nationally across the 6 major capital cities, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide have had a 5-year boom in real estate from 2020 to today, the chart at right shows you the generational opportunity that exists in Melbourne with only a 6.36% increase.
MAY 2020 TO 31 OCT 2025 (POST
SYDNEY MELBOURNE
BRISBANE ADELAIDE
PERTH
HOBART
*Note: figures are approximate, based on available data. Prices are for combined dwellings for houses & units.
MAY 2015 TO MAY 2020 (PRE COVID)
Winding the clock back 5 years prior to Covid the numbers show a different growth pattern particularly for Melbourne, where it has enjoyed the title of the 3rd best performing capital city with 26.2% growth, a stark contrast to the 2.8%, 5 years later. Hobart experienced the highest growth over the five year period, with a significant increase of 55.1% in median dwelling prices.
*Note: May 2015 figures are approximate, based on available data.
MAY 2015 TO 31 OCT 2025
The table below paints the stories of growth over the last 10.5 years. Adelaide and Hobart had the highest growth over the past decade, with increases of 114.24% and 104.85%, respectively. This growth is attributed to factors such as affordability, lifestyle appeal, and increased interstate migration. Brisbane has also seen significant growth of 82.18%, driven by strong population growth and infrastructure development. Perth’s growth of 72.4% reflects a recovery from earlier market downturns, supported by the mining sector and increased demand. Sydney and Melbourne have experienced more moderate growth of 48.6% and 34.25%, respectively, due to higher base prices and affordability constraints.
10.5 YEAR GROWTH DATA
2015
$810,000 CITY
SYDNEY MELBOURNE
BRISBANE ADELAIDE
PERTH
HOBART
2025 10.5 YR GROWTH $610,000 $506,553 $405,000 $513,000 $335,000
*Note: May 2015 figures are approximate, based on available data. Prices are for combined dwellings for houses & units.
MAY 2023 TO OCT 2025
Judging by the table below, the 2 and a half year trend across the 6 capital cities paints a renewal of growth for all states apart from Melbourne. Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth have experienced the highest growth over the past two and a half years, each with at least 10% increases in median dwelling values.
Sydney has seen good moderate growth of 9.23%, while Hobart’s growth has been more subdued at 3.98%. Melbourne is the only capital city to record only 1.08%.
*Note: Somes
IN
SUMMARY
Melbourne’s comparatively modest property growth over the past decade and particularly the last 5 and 2 years can be attributed to a range of factors—many of which extend beyond government policy. At the heart of it is what can best be described as a COVID 19 hangover—a unique circumstance that no other capital city faced to the same extent. While government initiatives like the 10 year COVID Land Tax levy and the introduction of stricter regulations for landlords (rental providers) have certainly played a role, they are only part of the story.
Victoria also faces significant state debt, yet it is actively investing in its future through transformative infrastructure programs such as the Big Build. When it comes to tenancy reforms, Victoria has led the nation, and while some may criticise the extent of these changes, other states are expected to follow suit—if not fully, then in part.
Another contributing factor to Melbourne’s slower growth may lie in the lack of new support mechanisms for first home buyers. The stamp duty concessions have remained unchanged since 2017. It still offers a full exemption up to $600,000 and a partial concession up to $750,000—providing no adjustment for inflation or market movement since 2017.
Taxation on investment properties also remains a point of contention. The recently passed Fire Services Levy—as of May 2025—now places a heavier financial burden on landlords compared to owner occupiers, with the government anticipating an additional $2 billion in revenue.
But within this uncertainty lies opportunity. As Warren Buffett famously said, “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” For astute investors, Melbourne’s market conditions may represent precisely that kind of moment.
To summarise, Melbourne landlords have had 2 varied reactions to the Government policy. The first being “it’s all too hard” and “we’re not playing anymore”. The second being, “we’re in it for the long run”.
A recent study conducted over two decades puts these mindsets into perspective, approximately one in five investment properties are sold within the first year of ownership, while 28 per cent are held for more than 20 years. The motto should always be “buy well and never sell”.
SOURCES & DISCLAIMER
Data sources: realestate.com.au
Forecast.id
SQM Research
Victorian Government Big Build project announcements.
Census 2021 Victorian Planning Authority
Chat GPT
Visit Melbourne
The information contained in the Axis Guide is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice.
While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the information provided. Readers are encouraged to seek independent professional advice before making any property or financial decisions.
OBrien Real Estate disclaims all liability for any loss or damage arising from reliance on the information contained in this guide.
WORDS & DATA BY JASON MUDFORD
DESIGN & CREATIVE BY OLIVIA WARDEN
WHERE DATA MEETS DIRECTION
OBRIEN BLACKBURN
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