Property Axis South East by OBrien Real Estate

WHERE DATA MEETS DIRECTION

OBRIEN REAL ESTATE IS A LEADING VICTORIAN AGENCY NETWORK WITH DEEP EXPERTISE ACROSS MELBOURNE. WE COMBINE RIGOROUS DATA ANALYSIS WITH ON‑THE‑GROUND MARKET KNOWLEDGE TO HELP INVESTORS MAKE CONFIDENT DECISIONS.

A GUIDE TO PROPERTY TRENDS, MARKET MOVEMENTS, AND INVESTMENT INSIGHTS ACROSS MELBOURNE’S SOUTH EAST

Melbourne’s south‑east growth corridor is accelerating. Metro Tunnel services (opening late 2025), the imminent opening of Frankston Hospital redevelopment, a fully duplicated Cranbourne line and a suite of new arterial‑road upgrades will compress travel time, while Casey and Cardinia are forecast to add more than 290,000 residents by 2046.

We apply the framework to 37 key suburbs and help investors and home buyers match strategy to suburb characteristics. 4

Despite rapid rises in Brisbane and Perth, south‑east Melbourne still offers family‑sized houses at a 15‑20 % discount to the metropolitan median, with rental yields north of 4 %. The window before Metro Tunnel go‑live is a pivotal moment for buyers to lock in capital growth and resilient cash‑flow.

The redevelopment of the Frankston Hospital will transform its services, delivering a new tower with 12 levels with a helicopter pad, 130 more beds, and new spaces for mental health and oncology services and 15 new operating theatres. Once finished, (due for completion in late 2025, and open to the public in early 2026), the redeveloped hospital will have the capacity to treat approximately 35,000 more patient episodes each year.

Axis applies a five pillar framework to identify the key drivers of growth:

1. Infrastructure Development

2. Population Growth & Demographics

3. Economic/Employment Growth

4. Government Planning/Policy

5. Market Cycle

SUBURB METHODOLOGY SELECTION

AFFORDABILITY

Either low prices suiting buyers on a budget or relative affordability compared to nearby suburbs.

AMENITY

Being the level of lifestyle benefits, from bars and restaurants to boutiques and parklands.

FAMILY APPEAL

Such as dwelling type, perceived safety and proximity to good schools.

LOCATION

Including proximity to the CBD or major hubs, or closeness to natural amentities like beaches.

INVESTMENT PROSPECTS

From rental market conditions to expected imminent upside.

GENTRIFICATION

Being the changing face of a suburb

POPULATION GROWTH

Representing a projected increase in the number of locals.

DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE

Indicating a shift from the current make-up of residents, for example young families replacing downsizing elderly locals.

INFRASTRUCTURE

Looking at major investments in projects that will benefit the suburb or surrounds.

BEACONSFIELD

SCHOOLS

Government school zones: Baxter Primary School, Mount Erin Secondary College (Frankston South)

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

• VicTrack options study (2025) again examines electrification of Stony Point rail spur via Baxter.

GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS

• Proposed electrification & stabling yard shift for the Frankston–Baxter rail extension sparks early townhouse site acquisitions.

• Converted produce store café on Baxter Tooradin Rd draws weekend cyclists.

• Artist run micro brewery lodged for disused service station parcel.

POTENTIAL DRAWBACK

Project still unfunded—values could slip if rail hopes fade.

SCHOOLS

Government school zones: Beaconsfield Primary School, Berwick Secondary College

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

• Brunt Rd level crossing removal (2025) triggers station precinct TOD concept planning.

GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS

• Main street beautification grants funding sidewalk dining and façade upgrades.

• New Monash Berwick Health hub pushes young medical staff to nearby rentals. Median household income up 17 % since 2016 (ABS).

POTENTIAL DRAWBACK

High owner occupier price point (> $1 m) limits rental pool depth.

BEACONSFIELD UPPER

SCHOOLS

Government school zones: Beaconsfield

Upper Primary School, Officer Secondary College

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

• Telstra mobile black spot program completed new 5G tower (2024)

GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS

• Farm gate cellar doors hosting live music afternoons attract inner city day trippers

• Heritage homesteads restored as boutique B&Bs

• NBN FTTP rollout complete, enticing work from home professionals

POTENTIAL DRAWBACK

High bush fire exposure, thus rising insurance

SCHOOLS

Government school zones: Berwick Fields

Primary School (south), Berwick Lodge

Primary School (north), Berwick Secondary College.

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

• Casey Hospital Stage 2 build (completes 2026) adds 160 beds and ~1,200 health jobs.

GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS

• Casey Hospital stage 3 expansion and Federation Uni campus doubling enrolment.

• Rise of speciality coffee strip on Gloucester Ave; night market events sold out.

• Period cottages near Pioneer Park being architect renovated rather than demolished.

POTENTIAL DRAWBACK

Traffic congestion at Clyde Rd interchange— commuters face 15 min delays peak.

Photo by Greg Briggs

SCHOOLS

Government school zones: Bittern Primary School, Western Port Secondary College (Hastings)

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

• Local activity centre rezoning (Bittern Fields) to deliver 4,000 m² retail + 180 dwellings

GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS

• Stony Point rail line frequency boost improves commuting; 1970s cottages flipping after cosmetic make overs.

• Monthly makers’ market at Bittern railway precinct draws Mornington Peninsula tourists.

POTENTIAL DRAWBACK

High bush fire overlay increases build costs and insurance premiums

SCHOOLS

Government school zones: Tooradin Primary School, Cranbourne Secondary College

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

• Foreshore boardwalk upgrade & wetland revegetation (2024) improving amenity

GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS

• Boutique oyster bar and kayak hire on Warneet inlet signalling sea change lifestyle branding

• Niche builder launching Hamptons style infill homes on legacy holiday blocks

POTENTIAL DRAWBACK

Limited mains water pressure can hamper two storey redevelopment approvals.

https://botanicridge.com.au/

CARRUM DOWNS

SCHOOLS

Government school zones: Botanic Ridge Primary School, Cranbourne East Secondary College

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

• $20 m Botanic Ridge Village SC (Coles anchored) opens Q4 2025.

GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS

• Settlers Run Golf Estate resale values accelerating; influx of corporate professionals

• Gourmet grocer and wine bar at Botanic Ridge Village anchors a new convenience precinct

POTENTIAL DRAWBACK

Only one bus route; Metro tunnel benefit indirect, so price growth relies on car mobility.

SCHOOLS

Government school zones: Banyan Fields Primary School, Carrum Downs Secondary College

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

• $31 m Thompsons Rd duplication finished 2024, easing east west congestion

GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS

• Dandenong–Carrum Downs industrial estate expansion lifts white collar admin roles locally

• Pop up food truck nights in Bowerbird Community Park packed out

POTENTIAL DRAWBACK

Ageing 1990s stock needs energy efficiency upgrades to meet 2027 rental standards.

SCHOOLS

Government school zones: Clyde Primary School, Cranbourne Secondary College

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

• Clyde Rd/Thompsons Rd intersection duplication starts 2025

GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS

• Fast tracked Clyde rail extension in business case stage—developers banking sites near proposed station.

• Retail tenancy mix in Clyde Village shifting from takeaway to artisan bakery and yoga studio.

POTENTIAL DRAWBACK

School shortages—residents report enrolment lotteries until two new primaries open 2027

SCHOOLS

Government school zones: Hillside Primary School, Sydenham Hillside Primary, Copperfield College Senior Campus

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

• 2024 25 sees five new schools and last two level crossings removed, underpinning family demand

GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS

• Smiths Lane town centre opens with co working hub and craft beer bar

• 30 % of settlers hold a bachelor degree (vs 17 % in 2016) indicating changing socio economics.

POTENTIAL DRAWBACK

Oversupply of turnkey homes can flatten rents in softer labour markets

CRANBOURNE

SCHOOLS

Government school zones: Manor Lakes College (P 12), Ngarri Primary School (opened 2023)

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

• Cranbourne Line Upgrade complete— 10 min peak services after full duplication

GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS

• Revamped Cranbourne Park SC brings H&M and international eateries

• Line duplication works to Dandenong improve off peak frequencies— commuters upgrading ex commission houses

POTENTIAL DRAWBACK

Near term price growth may pause once construction stimulus subsides

CRANBOURNE EAST

SCHOOLS

Government school zones: Melton Primary School, Melton Secondary College, Cobblebank Secondary (planned).

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

• Casey Fields regional sporting hub Stage 3 adds elite athletics and community pitches

GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS

• Casey Fields sporting complex hosts AFLW / Big Bash overflow games, boosting profile

• Median land prices now equal Clyde North, showing catch up momentum

POTENTIAL DRAWBACK

Large house and land pipeline can mute capital gains if broader demand softens.

CRANBOURNE NORTH

SCHOOLS

Government school zones: Courtenay Gardens Primary School, St Therese Primary School (Catholic), Lyndhurst Secondary College

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

• Glasscocks Rd link to Endeavour Hills funded, opening new arterial route

GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS

• Avenue Village multiplex cinema & dining strip complete; high spec town houses selling off plan above $800 k.

POTENTIAL DRAWBACK

Rental supply dominated by identical four bedroom homes—vacancy risk if family demand cools

CRANBOURNE SOUTH

5 year population growth

SCHOOLS

Government school zones: Cranbourne South Primary School, Cranbourne Secondary College

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

Rural residential zoning changes allow 0.4 ha lots; acreage demand pushing values +4 % year on year

GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS Boutique equine acreage subdivisions targeted at tree change professionals with hybrid work patterns

POTENTIAL DRAWBACK

Lack of sewer reticulation in parts raises developer holding costs

CRANBOURNE WEST

SCHOOLS

Government school zones: Cranbourne West Primary School, Cranbourne West Secondary College (opens 2026, interim Cranbourne Secondary College)

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

Evans Rd level crossing removal (2024) unlocked new mixed use rezoning

GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS

• Brand new Cranbourne West Secondary College lifts school zone appeal

• Local café culture emerging around Duff St neighbourhood centre

POTENTIAL DRAWBACK

Rapid 12 month price surge (+32 %) may not be sustainable post infrastructure hype

DEVON MEADOWS

SCHOOLS

Government school zones: Devon Meadows Primary School, Cranbourne Secondary College

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

Grant Rd industrial estate (30 ha) approved, adding 500 jobs near South Gippsland Hwy

GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS

• Planning scheme amendment C279 unlocks 2 000 lot PSP; design guidelines mandate leafy streets and NBN fibre

POTENTIAL DRAWBACK

Green wedge interface means higher likelihood of future planning objections

GUYS HILL

SCHOOLS

Government school zones: Beaconsfield Primary, Berwick Secondary College

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

• Scenic cycling trail between Guys Hill and Beaconsfield funded ($4 m) 2025

GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS

• Boutique hobby farms marketed as “new Red Hill” to young vintners; micro vineyard permits up 40 % since 2022

POTENTIAL DRAWBACK

No mains sewer—individual treatment plants required for new dwellings

HALLAM

SCHOOLS

Government school zones: Hallam Primary School, Fountain Gate Secondary College

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

Hallam Rd level crossing removal & elevated station delivered 2022, jump starting mixed use rezoning review

GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS

• Elevated rail & station rebuild frees up land for TOD mixed use—first mid rise apartments in council pipeline

• International grocers replacing discount stores along Princes Hwy

POTENTIAL DRAWBACK

Industrial residential interface along Westpool Dve can deter owner occupiers

HAMPTON PARK

SCHOOLS

Government school zones: Hampton Park Primary School, River Gum Primary School, Hampton Park Secondary College

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

River Gum Village retail revamp adds 3,000 m² medical and allied health suites

GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS

• Renewal of Monash Freeway interchange slashes peak travel times; investors snapping up brick veneer homes for cosmetic flips

POTENTIAL DRAWBACK

Ageing rental stock meets 2027 energy efficiency minimums—cap ex looming for investors

HASTINGS

SCHOOLS

Government school zones: Hastings Primary School, Western Port Secondary College

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

Port of Hastings flagged for hydrogen export hub; early civil contracts let 2024

GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS

• Port of Hastings hydrogen export hub feasibility drives engineering contractors to town; coffee roaster and distillery open on High St

POTENTIAL DRAWBACK

Project uncertainty after 2025 safety concerns puts timeline at risk

SCHOOLS

Government school zones: Koo Wee Rup Primary School, Koo Wee Rup Secondary School

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

• Preferred alignment for Koo Wee Rup Bypass released 2024; early works 2026

GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS

• Future Pakenham Bypass connection flagged; early land banking by volume builders

• Historic asparagus sheds repurposed into weekend vintage markets

POTENTIAL DRAWBACK

Large dairy farming buffer limits urban sprawl, slowing resale turnover

SCHOOLS

Government school zones: Langwarrin Primary School, Langwarrin Park Primary School, Elisabeth Murdoch College (Langwarrin)

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

• Major retail expansion at Karingal Hub (5 min north) is drawing new national tenants and services

• Proposed duplication of Cranbourne Frankston Rd will shorten CBD bus times

GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS

• The Gateway shopping strip attracting gourmet deli and Pilates studio

• Hospital staff from Peninsula Health choosing larger Langwarrin lots over Frankston apartments

POTENTIAL DRAWBACK

Limited rail access keeps commuters reliant on congested Peninsula Link during peaks

LANGWARRIN

SOUTH

SCHOOLS

Government school zones: Woodlands Primary School, Elisabeth Murdoch College

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

Small lot rezoning around Robinsons Rd

unlocking boutique acreage subdivisions

GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS

• Lifestyle acreage conversions to architect designed farmhouses featured in design magazines

POTENTIAL DRAWBACK

Planning delays mean construction timelines can slip, tying up capital longer

LYNBROOK

SCHOOLS

Government school zones: Lynbrook Primary School, Lyndhurst Secondary College

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

New Greyson Park primary (opens 2026) relieves enrolment pressure in fast growing catchment

GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS

• Lynbrook Village refresh introduces specialty dessert bar; PlayCentral kids gym draws young families

POTENTIAL DRAWBACK

Limited café/restaurant scene may cap “lifestyle” buyer demand versus neighbouring Cranbourne

LYNDHURST

SCHOOLS

Government school zones: Koo Wee Rup Primary School, Koo Wee Rup Secondary School

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

• Western Port Hwy Thompsons Rd interchange upgrade underway; completion 2026

GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS

• Marriott Waters wetlands boardwalk and café upgrade create weekend destination feel

• 12 ha employment precinct marketed for tech light industrial

POTENTIAL DRAWBACK

Flood overlay pockets along Dandenong Creek require elevated slab designs

NAR NAR GOON

SCHOOLS

Government school zones: Nar Nar Goon Primary School, Pakenham Secondary College

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

• Future Parwan Freight Rail connection flagged in State Freight Plan (long term)

GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS

• New primary school building and V/Line timetable boost attracting first home buyers priced out of Officer

POTENTIAL DRAWBACK

Volatile median prices due to thin monthly sales—careful valuation required

NARRE WARREN

SCHOOLS

Government school zones: Narre Warren Primary School, Fountain Gate Secondary College

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

Webb St level crossing removed 2023; new five storey station opens 2024

GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS

• Fountain Gate SC luxury wing (David Jones) elevates retail status; micro breweries pop up in industrial pocket

POTENTIAL DRAWBACK

Monash Freeway proximity generates noise for streets west of Princes Hwy

NARRE WARREN NORTH

SCHOOLS

Government school zones: Narre Warren North Primary School, Fountain Gate Secondary College

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

Boutique acreage subdivision along Crawley Rd (< 100 lots) breaking ground 2025

GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS

• Acre lots seeing knock down rebuild mansion trend; Mercedes and Tesla registrations climb

POTENTIAL DRAWBACK

$1.6 m median restricts tenant pool; yields sub 3 %

NARRE WARREN SOUTH

SCHOOLS

Government school zones: Strathair Primary School, Narre Warren South Prep 12 College

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

• Ormond Rd sporting precinct (stage 2 lights/clubrooms) boosts local recreation appeal

GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS

• Casey Stadium upgrade + new kinders increase family friendly credentials; private school campuses expanding.

POTENTIAL DRAWBACK

Few remaining vacant blocks—future capital growth reliant on knock down rebuilds

SCHOOLS

Government school zones: Officer Primary School, Bridgewood Primary School, Officer Secondary College

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

• Officer Town Centre rail plaza finished; hip brew pub and farmers’ market activate civic square

• 6 000 student education precinct (Gov & Catholic) under construction.

GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS

• Officer Town Centre rail plaza finished; hip brew pub and farmers’ market activate civic square

• 6 000 student education precinct (Gov & Catholic) under construction.

POTENTIAL

Shire

SCHOOLS

Government school zones: Pakenham Primary School, Pakenham Springs Primary School, Pakenham Secondary College

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

Pakenham & brand new East Pakenham stations opened June 2024, extending metro line 2 km. Pakenham East PSP: 7,000 homes + 5,000 jobs

GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS

• East Pakenham station underway; Cardinia Rd industrial land attracting logistics firms with white collar roles.

• Heritage Main St façades being restored as wine bars and co working lofts

POTENTIAL DRAWBACK

Construction traffic and retail disruptions around Main St until 2026

PEARCEDALE

SCHOOLS

Government school zones: Pearcedale Primary School, Elisabeth Murdoch College

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

Baxter Tooradin Rd safety upgrade (overtaking lanes) funded 2025 26

GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS

Moorooduc Hwy duplication shortens commute; artisanal providore opens next to post office

POTENTIAL DRAWBACK

Specific septic tank properties: extra maintenance cost for landlords

Shire of Cardinia

SANDHURST

SCHOOLS

Government school zones: Sandhurst Primary School (planned; interim Carrum Downs Primary School), Carrum Downs Secondary College

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

• Sandhurst Club golf course sustainability upgrades (recycled water) future proof amenity

GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS

• Members only Sandhurst Club pivoting to wellness tourism (day spa, pilates retreats) → lifting prestige profile

POTENTIAL DRAWBACK

Single estate market—values highly sensitive to golf course levy and body corp fees

SCHOOLS

Government school zones: Skye Primary School, Carrum Downs Secondary College

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

• 2024 Skye/Frankston North PSP earmarks 3,000 extra dwellings plus sporting reserve

GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS

Proposed Bald Hill Rd extension improves access; boutique childcare centres opening signal rising household incomes

POTENTIAL DRAWBACK

Aircraft noise overlay from Moorabbin flight path caps density in western pocket

SOMERVILLE

SCHOOLS

Government school zones: Somerville Primary School, Somerville Secondary College

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

$16 m Somerville Community Hospital upgrade commences late 2025

GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS

• Station St “eat street” revived with craft burger joint and specialty coffee; weekend antique fairs growing foot traffic

POTENTIAL DRAWBACK

Limited public transport—car dependency leaves suburb exposed to fuel price shocks

TOORADIN

SCHOOLS

Government school zones: Tooradin Primary School, Cranbourne Secondary College

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

Proposed Western Port Marina re scoping could add 500 berths & tourism jobs by 2028

GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS

• Coastal boardwalk masterplan and heritage hotel renovation attract day trippers; fishing village chic branding taking off

POTENTIAL DRAWBACK

Coastal inundation overlay drives higher construction standard costs

TYABB

SCHOOLS

Government school zones: Tyabb Primary School, Tyabb Railway Primary School, Somerville Secondary College

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

• Sandhurst Club golf course sustainability upgrades (recycled water) future proof amenity

GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS

• Cool climate vineyard cellar doors trend south from Moorooduc

• Tyabb Packing House antiques precinct hosts art festivals, drawing Melburnians for weekend stays

POTENTIAL DRAWBACK

Mornington Peninsula Airport precinct master plan expands light industry lots

FIG 1: Somerville General Store https://www.theninch.com.au/post/somerville general store

FIG 2: Tooradin foreshore https://www.aussietowns.com.au/town/tooradin vic

FIG 3: Tyabb Packing House & Village https://www.visitmorningtonpeninsula.org/ Things To Do/Markets Shopping/View/_293c822478dbdc080c81ce85/Tyabb Packing House Village

FIG 1

FIG 2

FIG 1

CRANBOURNE CRANBOURNE EAST

CRANBOURNE NORTH

CRANBOURNE SOUTH CRANBOURNE WEST

HOUSES

CRANBOURNE

CRANBOURNE EAST

CRANBOURNE NORTH

CRANBOURNE SOUTH

WEST

INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT

Few parts of Victoria are undergoing a more intense, co ordinated burst of infrastructure investment than Melbourne’s south east growth corridor. A lattice of rail, road, health and port mega‑projects is reshaping how residents move, work and play from Cranbourne to Hastings—laying the tracks, quite literally, for the region’s next phase of population and employment growth.

METRO TUNNEL (OPENS 2025)

By joining the Sunbury and Cranbourne–Pakenham lines beneath the CBD, the tunnel will eliminate the Flinders Street change over and create Melbourne’s first through running spine. Peak trips from Cranbourne, Narre Warren and Pakenham will fall by up to 15 minutes, while corridor capacity lifts about 45 per cent—historically the sort of accessibility shift that triggers double digit price growth in surrounding suburbs.

SUBURBAN RAIL LOOP EAST (CHELTENHAM–BOX HILL)

Twin TBMs arrive in 2026; revenue services target the early 2030s. Cheltenham, Highett and Clayton will transform into super hubs, linking Monash University, Australia’s largest employment precinct outside the CBD, to the south east’s housing base in barely ten minutes. Gippsland line travellers will gain a one change trip to these jobs, and TOD rezoning is already lifting land bids around the future stations.

ROAD & PRECINCT SPINE

The $16 billion North East Link (opens 2028) creates a seamless outer ring: Mornington Peninsula motorists will bypass 15 000 daily trucks now funnelling through suburban streets, cutting airport and northern freight travel by up to 35 minutes. At a local level the Hall Road duplication (delivered 2024) has removed the worst bottleneck between Cranbourne West and Skye, and the $175 million Thompsons Road grade separation kicks off late 2025 to service the 30 000 new dwellings slated for Clyde, Botanic Ridge and Devon Meadows.

HEALTH & HARBOUR HUBS

The $1.1 billion Frankston Hospital redevelopment completes in 2026, delivering 130 extra beds, a medical research institute and 2 300 permanent clinical jobs, underpinning rental demand from Frankston South to Mount Eliza. Further down the coast, the Mornington Safe Harbour marina (2026 28) will activate a year round boating, dining and tourism precinct for Mornington and Mount Martha. Fresh horsepower from the 2025 26 State Budget

The latest Victorian Budget injects $421 million into rail reliability:

• $52 million to lengthen Bendigo weekend trains,

• Extra peak services on Seymour

• 40 minute inter peak frequencies between Traralgon and Melbourne

• $270 million for V/Line maintenance

Most relevant for the south east is $99 million to boost services on the Sandringham, Craigieburn, Upfield, Werribee and Gippsland lines. More Gippsland trains mean higher capacity for the Pakenham corridor and shorter waits for Mentone to Mordialloc commuters who transfer at Caulfield. The Sandringham upgrade directly benefits bayside owners from Elwood to Hampton who rely on frequent off peak services.

Complementing the “big three” is a network of precinct upgrades

• Cranbourne Line Upgrade – full duplication and 11 level crossings removed; five storey Narre Warren multi modal station opens late 2025.

• Pakenham East PSP – new East Pakenham station, 7 000 dwellings and 5 000 jobs; stabling yard future proofs Gippsland capacity.

• Somerville Community Hospital – $16 million upgrade delivers a 24 hour urgent care hub for 30 000 residents by 2027.

• Port of Hastings Hydrogen Hub – up to 2 000 construction jobs; positions Hastings–Tyabb as a maritime logistics growth node.

• Stony Point Line electrification feasibility – keeps upside alive for Bittern, Baxter and Somerville acreage owners eyeing long term connectivity gains.

Taken together, the Metro Tunnel, SRL East, North East Link and the State Budget rail boost are stitching the south east more tightly to Melbourne’s economic core while creating new, localised employment nodes. Transit amenity, health capacity and job density are rising rapidly, yet house prices in many growth area suburbs still trail the metro median—presenting a rare window where affordability and future proofed connectivity converge for investors.

POPULATION DEMOGRAPHICS

The City of Casey is one of Victoria’s largest and fastest growing municipalities covering 407 square kilometres. The population forecast for 2025 is 429,383, and is forecast to grow to 614,075 by 2046, that is a 27% increase. Most of the growth is forecast for Clyde (222%) and Clyde North (+96%)

The City of Cardinia has a population forecast for 2025 of 132,289, and is forecast to grow to 167,989 by 2046. The 43% growth is driven by greenfield estates in Officer and Pakenham.

Somerville and Hastings provide a compelling bridge between metropolitan affordability and coastal lifestyle. Somerville’s revamped town square now anchors a growing café culture, while Hastings’ working port is earmarked for hydrogen export and marine industry expansion. Bittern, Baxter and rural residential Devon Meadows—extend the opportunity set. Acreage lots attract tree changers seeking space within a 60 minute rail trip to the CBD, and the Stony Point line’s planned electrification feasibility study keeps long term upside in play.

OWNERSHIP PERCENTAGE

POPULATION DEMOGRAPHICS

OWNERSHIP PERCENTAGE

POPULATION DEMOGRAPHICS

BACHELOR PERCENTAGE

DEFINITIONS

LABOUR FORCE PERCENTAGE:

The percentage of people working in the labour industry.

BACHELOR PERCENTAGE: The percentage of people with a bachelor’s degree.

ECONOMIC & EMPLOYMENT GROWTH

The Victorian Government’s Activity Centre Program, aims to build 300,000 new homes within the eventual 60 activity centres, of which only 10 have so far been released these being: Preston (High Street), Broadmeadows, Niddrie (Keilor Road), North Essendon, Moorabbin, RIngwood, Frankston, Epping, Camberwell Junction and Chadstone Activity Centre.

The activity centres aims for housing to be well located by allowing the maximise use of existing infrastructure, services, jobs, green space and public transport. The idea for residents in living in these new zones will make day to day life easier, more convenient, and more sustainable. Following strong community feedback on the first 10 activity centres in 2024, Victorians valued strong transport connections. Planning for the next 25 activity centres is underway and will be released in later in 2025.

BAXTER

PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

• Less 1,000 direct jobs, but there will be • pivotal benefits if the Frankston–Baxter rail electrification proceeds. (business case complete) infrastructure.gov.au

BEACONSFIELD

PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

• Brunt Rd level crossing removal (2025) + mixed use station precinct concept. Circa. 400 construction jobs & 600 ongoing retail/ office roles

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

• Rail construction, health services (Frankston), logistics

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

• Retail, civil construction, professional services

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

• Proposed Baxter station & stabling yard; specialist rail contractors

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

• New elevated Beaconsfield station; TOD retail podium

BEACONSFIELD UPPER

PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

• No PSP; relies on Berwick/Officer jobs. Lifestyle/agribusiness micro enterprises to add less than 100 roles over the decade

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

• Niche tourism, horticulture, remote professional work

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

• Boutique cellar doors; home based farms

PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

• Casey Hospital Stage 2 (finishes 2026) adds 1,200 health jobs plus 160 extra beds vhba.vic.gov.au

BITTERN

PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

• Bittern Fields activity centre rezoning creates 4,000 m² retail + 180 dwellings leading to 350 ongoing jobs bigbuild.vic.gov.au

BLIND BIGHT BERWICK

PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

• No industrial land; jobs flow from Cranbourne West & Western Port green energy projects

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

• Health & allied services, education

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

• Local retail, aged care

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

• Casey Hospital expansion; Federation Uni nursing campus

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

• Tourism, home based trades

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

• New supermarket anchor & medical hub

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

• Foreshore boardwalk upgrade fuels small business tourism

BOTANIC RIDGE

PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

• Next Stage of Botanic Ridge Village SC (opens 2025) plus new primary school equals 250 retail + 80 education roles

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

• Convenience retail, education

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

• Coles anchored village centre; Botanic Ridge Primary (2024)

PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

• Planned 30 ha industrial‐estate expansion north of existing precinct 2,600 permanent jobs

CLYDE

PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

• PSP Clyde North South under exhibition: 10,000 dwellings + district centre leading to 3,500 centre jobs

CLYDE NORTH CARRUM DOWNS

PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

• Same PSP catchment; Casey Fields South PSP (consultation 2025) flags 7,370 jobs city wide

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

• Advanced manufacturing, logistics

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

• Retail, education, health

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

• New Carrum Downs industrial estate (Frankston City Council)

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

• Sport/rec, construction, retail

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

• Clyde Major Town Centre; two government schools

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

• Casey Fields high performance sport precinct

DEVELOPMENTS IN THE SOUTH EAST

FIG 4: Ballarto Road duplication

FIG

FIG 6: Cranbourne Community Hospital the Victorian Government is investing more than $800 million to build community hospitals in major growth areas including Cranbourne.

5: New Hallam train station

FIG 4

FIG 5

FIG 6

DEVELOPMENTS IN THE SOUTH EAST

FIG 7: The Port of Hastings Selected by the Victorian Government as the preferred location for the establishment of the Victorian Renewable Energy Terminal

FIG 8: Narre Warren, Webb St level crossing removal + 5 storey station

FIG 9: The North East link saving motorists time when heading to Northern Suburbs and Northern Victoria

FIG 7

FIG 8

FIG 9

CRANBOURNE

PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

• Cranbourne Line duplication done; TOD (Transit Orientation Development) planning around station aims for 1,500 office/retail roles by 2030

PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

• Casey Fields sporting hub Stage 3 adds elite athletics, plus community ovals leading to 150 permanent sport roles

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

• Transport, retail, civic services

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

• New Cranbourne station forecourt & medium rise offices

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

• Sport science, events, hospitality

CRANBOURNE NORTH

PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

• Glasscocks Rd link unlocks industrial infill, leading to circa 800 warehousing jobs 2025 35

CRANBOURNE SOUTH CRANBOURNE EAST

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

• Warehousing, last mile logistics

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

• Expanded Casey Fields precinct

PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

• Rural residential subdivision (0.4 ha lots) adds construction but few local jobs, less than 200.

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

• Boutique agri tourism, construction trades

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

• Glasscocks Rd business park

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

• Lifestyle acreage estates

CRANBOURNE WEST

PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

• Evans Rd Industrial PSP: 150 ha remaining lots = 3,000 jobs (light industrial & showrooms)

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KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

• Logistics, auto trades

DEVON MEADOWS

PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

• Devon Meadows PSP (consultation 2025) flagged 7,370 jobs across Casey Fields South/Devon Meadows combined heraldsun.com.au

GUYS HILL

PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

• No major projects; reliant on Berwick/ Officer. Fewer than 50 new local jobs (construction, equine)

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

• Logistics, construction, agri services

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

• Bunnings Trade Centre; Rangebank Business Park

PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

• Hallam Rd elevated station TOD (Transit Orientation Development) study, up to 700 mixed use jobs by 2030

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

• Equine services, home business

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

• Proposed employment precinct along South Gippsland Hwy

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

• Mixed use office, rail maintenance

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

• Trail head café & cycling hub (Casey tourism)

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

• Hallam Mobility Hub (LXRP land)

DEVELOPMENTS IN THE SOUTH EAST

FIG 10: Cranbourne Line Upgrade paving the way for trains every 10 minutes on the Cranbourne Line

FIG 11: New Mernda Park Train Station

FIG 12: Clayton Suburban Rail Loop Station

FIG 10

FIG 11

FIG 12

DEVELOPMENTS IN THE SOUTH EAST

FIG 13: Metro Tunnel

FIG 14: Airport Train Station

FIG 15: Botanic Ridge Village SC stage 2 will begin shortly

FIG 13

FIG 14

FIG 15

HAMPTON PARK

PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

• River Gum Village medical/retail revamp (2025) adds 200 jobs

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

• Medical suites, food retail

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

• River Gum Village stage 2 health hub

HASTINGS

PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

• Port of Hastings hydrogen export chain could create 2,000+ jobs (construction + port ops)

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

• Green energy, marine logistics

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

• Hydrogen Liquefaction & Loading Facility (HESC)

KOO WEE RUP

PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

• Koo Wee Rup Bypass (preferred alignment 2024) leading to 300 construction jobs; long term freight logistics uplift

LANGWARRIN

PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

• Karingal Hub stage 2 ($100 m) retail re tenanting adds 500 positions

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

• Road freight, agribusiness

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

• New bypass & truck rest hub

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

• Retail, food services

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

• Expanded Karingal Hub centre

LANGWARRIN SOUTH

PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

• Boutique acreage developments (< 150 lots) will support 250 construction roles.

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

• Viticulture, lifestyle tourism

LYNBROOK

PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

• Greyson Park Primary (opens 2026) leading to 60 staff; intersection upgrades create 150 civil jobs.

LYNDHURST

PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

• Western Port Hwy / Thompsons Rd grade sep (2026) leads to 450 new jobs and unlocks industrial land

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

• Education, civil works

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

• Micro wineries / farm gate trail

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

• Transport & logistics

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

• New government primary; Lynbrook Blvd duplication

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

• Freight intermodal zoning (Lyndhurst)

NAR NAR GOON

PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

• Parwan Freight Rail feasibility study; could add 800 rail/industrial jobs if green lit in the 2030s

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

• Rail engineering, grain handling

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

• Proposed intermodal freight hub

DEVELOPMENTS IN THE SOUTH EAST

FIG 16: Koo Wee Rup Bypass alignment coming in 2026

FIG 17: Artist Impression of Ballarto Road School in Clyde coming in Q1 2026

FIG 18: Council has approved the proposed Western Port Marina Expansion

FIG 16

FIG 17

FIG 18

Artist impression of Webb Street, Narre Warren level crossing removal https://engage.vic.gov.au/lxrp webb street

NARRE WARREN

PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

• Webb St level crossing removal + 5 storey station (2024) leading to 1,100 jobs (civils + retail)

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

• Retail, rail ops, professional services

NARRE WARREN NORTH

PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

• Crawley Rd boutique subdivision (2025 27) small job lift, less than 200 jobs

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

• Construction, lifestyle services

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

• New Narre Warren station & plaza

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

• Premium acreage estate

NARRE WARREN SOUTH

PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

• Ormond Rd sports precinct lights & clubrooms add 30 sport + events jobs

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

• Community sport, hospitality

OFFICER

PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

• Officer South Employment PSP – 22,000 jobs across advanced industry vpa.vic.gov.au

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

• Logistics, advanced mfg, tech

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

• Ormond Rd reserve upgrade

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

• Officer South industrial super lots; future Western Port freight link

Pakenham Station

PAKENHAM

PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

• New Pakenham & East Pakenham stations (2024) + rail stabling leading to 750 construction + 200 rail jobs

PEARCEDALE

PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

• Baxter Tooradin Rd safety widening creates 120 civil jobs; little ongoing but aids freight

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

• Rail ops, retail

SANDHURST

PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

• Internal sustainability upgrades (recycled water) support to create less than 100 specialist jobs.

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

• Niche farming, trucking

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

• Two new stations; Main St revitalisation

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

• Environmental services, golf tourism

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

• Upgraded arterial; farm gate cluster

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

• Sandhurst Club water recycling facility

SKYE

PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

• Skye/Frankston North PSP earmarks 3,000 extra dwellings + sports reserve leading to 900 jobs

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

• Construction, government services

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

• Skye Sporting Reserve (new pavilion)

SOMERVILLE

PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

• Somerville Community Hospital upgrade ($16 m, 2025 27) plus town square renewal will lead to 160 health/retail roles

TOORADIN

PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

• Western Port Marina re scope (concept) could add 500 tourism jobs by 2028

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

• Health, retail

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

• Marine tourism, hospitality

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

• Hospital upgrade; Reid Parade square

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

• Proposed 500 berth marina

TYABB

PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

• Tyabb Airfield Precinct Plan enables hangar & avionics expansion leading to 300 trades & aviation jobs

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

• General aviation, light mfg

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

• Tyabb Airfield side hangars & Aero Club upgrade

GOVERNMENT POLICY PLANNING

The Labor government’s housing promises from the recent 2025 federal election, focusing on how they plan to support Australians into housing, assist first home buyers, address deposit challenges, support renters, enhance affordability, and boost home construction.

SUPPORT FOR FIRST HOME BUYERS

Deposit Scheme (Expanded First Home Guarantee)

Labor has expanded the existing First Home Guarantee scheme, allowing all first home buyers to purchase a home with just a 5% deposit without paying Lenders Mortgage Insurance (LMI). Previously, this scheme had income and participant caps, but the expansion removes these limitations, making it accessible to a broader range of buyers. For example, a Sydneysider could buy a $1 million property with a $50,000 deposit, saving up to $20,000 in LMI costs.

Help to Buy Shared Equity Scheme

This initiative enables eligible buyers to co purchase a home with the government, which can contribute up to 40% of the purchase price for new homes (30% for existing homes). This reduces the amount buyers need to borrow, lowering monthly repayments and making homeownership more attainable. Help to Buy is expected to open for applications later this year (following registration of the program directions, passage of state legislation, and implementation by Housing Australia). Purchase price cap increasing to 950k (up from $800k) for Metro Melbourne and 650k for regional (unchanged).

Construction of 100,000 Homes for First Home Buyers

Labor has committed $10 billion to build up to 100,000 homes exclusively for first home buyers. These homes will be constructed in partnership with states, developers, and community housing providers, with construction commencing in 2026 27 and occupancy beginning the following financial year.

Housing Australia Future Fund (HAFF)

The HAFF is a $10 billion investment fund aimed at building 30,000 new social and affordable homes over five years. The fund’s returns are used to finance the construction of these homes, addressing the housing supply shortage and improving affordability.

SUPPORT FOR RENTERS

Commonwealth Rent Assistance (CRA)

Labor plans to increase the CRA payments to provide additional support to low income renters, helping to alleviate rental stress and improve housing affordability.

Build to Rent Incentives

To boost the supply of rental properties, Labor has introduced tax incentives for developers to construct build to rent housing. This initiative aims to deliver approximately 80,000 additional rental units over a decade, increasing rental availability and stabilising prices.

ADDITIONAL MEASURES

Ban on Foreign Purchases of Existing Homes

To prioritise Australian buyers and reduce competition in the housing market, Labor has implemented a two year ban on foreign investors purchasing existing residential properties.

BROADER HOUSING SUPPLY INITIATIVES

National Housing Accord

Labor has set a target to build 1.2 million new homes by mid 2029 through the National Housing Accord. This ambitious plan involves collaboration with state governments and the private sector to accelerate housing construction and address the national housing shortage. One key reason new home construction hasn’t progressed as quickly as the government anticipated is that taxes make up 42% of the total cost of building a new home.

MARKET CYCLE

Melbourne’s South East corridor is entering a rare window of value. Median house prices sit 15-30 per cent below the metropolitan benchmark, yet billions are committed to infrastructure. Population forecasts point to City of Casey and City of Cardinia LGAs growing by 184,692 and 35,700, underpinning rental demand and long-term capital growth. Savvy buyers can still access spacious three- and four-bedroom homes for the price of an inner-city apartment, lock in yields above four per cent and ride the

upswing as major projects complete and constrained supply meets accelerating household formation. This is the west’s pivotal moment.

Nationally across the 6 major capital cities, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide have had a 5-year boom in real estate from 2020 to today, the chart at right shows you the generational opportunity that exists in Melbourne with only a 2.8% increase.

MAY 2020 T0 MAY 2025 (POST COVID)

HOBART

*Note: figures are approximate, based on available data. SYDNEY MELBOURNE BRISBANE ADELAIDE PERTH

MAY 2015 TO MAY 2020 (PRE COVID)

Winding the clock back 5 years prior to Covid the numbers show a different growth pattern particularly for Melbourne, where it has enjoyed the title of the 3rd best performing capital city with 26.2% growth, a stark contrast to the 2.8%, 5 years later. Hobart experienced the highest growth over the five year period, with a significant increase of 55.1% in median dwelling prices.

*Note: May 2015 figures are approximate, based on available data.

MAY 2015 TO MAY 2025

The table below paints the stories of growth over the last 10 years. Adelaide and Hobart was highest growth over the past decade, with increases of 104.9% and 101.2%, respectively. This growth is attributed to factors such as affordability, lifestyle appeal, and increased interstate migration. Brisbane has also seen significant growth of 81.3%, driven by strong population growth and infrastructure development. Perth’s growth of 58.7% reflects a recovery from earlier market downturns, supported by the mining sector and increased demand. Sydney and Melbourne have experienced more moderate growth of 48.6% and 29.7%, respectively, due to higher base prices and affordability constraints.

SYDNEY MELBOURNE

BRISBANE ADELAIDE

PERTH

$810,000 CITY 10 YEAR GROWTH DATA MAY 2015 MAY 2025 10 YR GROWTH $610,000 $506,553 $405,000 $513,000 $335,000

HOBART

*Note: May 2015 figures are approximate, based on available data.

MAY 2023 TO MAY 2025

Judging by the table below, the 2 year trend across the 6 capital cities paints a renewal of growth for all states a part from Melbourne. Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth have experienced the highest growth over the past two years, each with approximately 10% increases in median dwelling values.

Sydney has seen moderate growth of 4.6%, while Hobart’s growth has been more subdued at 2.1%. Melbourne is the only capital city to record a decline in median dwelling values over the two year period, with a decrease of 2.3%.

SUMMARY

Melbourne’s comparatively modest property growth over the past decade and particularly the last 5 and 2 years can be attributed to a range of factors—many of which extend beyond government policy. At the heart of it is what can best be described as a COVID 19 hangover—a unique circumstance that no other capital city faced to the same extent. While government initiatives like the 10 year COVID Land Tax levy and the introduction of stricter regulations for landlords (rental providers) have certainly played a role, they are only part of the story.

Victoria also faces significant state debt, yet it is actively investing in its future through transformative infrastructure programs such as the Big Build. When it comes to tenancy reforms, Victoria has led the nation, and while some may criticise the extent of these changes, other states are expected to follow suit—if not fully, then in part.

Another contributing factor to Melbourne’s slower growth may lie in the lack of new support mechanisms for first home buyers. The stamp duty concessions have remained unchanged since 2017. It still offers a full exemption up to $600,000 and a partial concession up to $750,000—providing no adjustment for inflation or market movement

since 2017.

Taxation on investment properties also remains a point of contention. The recently passed Fire Services Levy—as of May 2025—now places a heavier financial burden on landlords compared to owner occupiers, with the government anticipating an additional $2 billion in revenue.

But within this uncertainty lies opportunity. As Warren Buffett famously said, “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” For astute investors, Melbourne’s market conditions may represent precisely that kind of moment.

To summarise, Melbourne landlords have had 2 varied reactions to the Government policy. The first being “it’s all too hard” and “we’re not playing anymore”. The second being, “we’re in it for the long run”.

A recent study conducted over two decades puts these mindsets into perspective, approximately one in five investment properties are sold within the first year of ownership, while 28 per cent are held for more than 20 years. The motto should always be “buy well and never sell”.

SOURCES & DISCLAIMER

Data sources: realestate.com.au Forecast.id

SQM Research

Victorian Government Big Build project announcements.

Census 2021 Victorian Planning Authority

Chat GPT Visit Melbourne

The information contained in the Axis Guide is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice.

While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the information provided. Readers are encouraged to seek independent professional advice before making any property or financial decisions.

OBrien Real Estate disclaims all liability for any loss or damage arising from reliance on the information contained in this guide.

WORDS & DATA BY JASON MUDFORD

DESIGN & CREATIVE BY OLIVIA WARDEN