OBRIEN REAL ESTATE IS A LEADING VICTORIAN AGENCY NETWORK WITH DEEP EXPERTISE ACROSS MELBOURNE’S WEST. WE COMBINE RIGOROUS DATA ANALYSIS WITH ON‑THE‑GROUND MARKET KNOWLEDGE TO HELP INVESTORS MAKE CONFIDENT DECISIONS.
A GUIDE TO PROPERTY TRENDS, MARKET MOVEMENTS, AND INVESTMENT INSIGHTS ACROSS MELBOURNE’S WEST
Melbourne’s western corridor continues to outperform the broader metropolitan market on both population expansion and infrastructure spend. The western suburbs are experiencing significant growth, driven largely by affordability, making this part of Melbourne an increasingly popular choice for homebuyers and investors alike.
With the West Gate Tunnel nearing completion, Melbourne Airport Rail funded to 2032, and the Victorian Big Build funnelling billions into road, rail and health assets, investors have a once‑in‑a‑generation opportunity to capture long‑term value uplift. Axis applies a five pillar framework to identify the key drivers of growth.
1. Infrastructure Development
2. Population Growth & Demographics
3. Economic/Employment Growth
4. Government Planning/Policy
5. Market Cycle
We apply the framework to 18 key suburbs and help investors and home buyers match strategy to suburb characteristics.
SUBURB METHODOLOGY SELECTION
AFFORDABILITY
Either low prices suiting buyers on a budget or relative affordability compared to nearby suburbs.
AMENITY
Being the level of lifestyle benefits, from bars and restaurants to boutiques and parklands.
FAMILY APPEAL
Such as dwelling type, perceived safety and proximity to good schools.
LOCATION
Including proximity to the CBD or major hubs, or closeness to natural amentities like beaches.
INVESTMENT PROSPECTS
From rental market conditions to expected imminent upside.
GENTRIFICATION
Being the changing face of a suburb
POPULATION GROWTH
Representing a projected increase in the number of locals.
DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE
Indicating a shift from the current make-up of residents, for example young families replacing downsizing elderly locals.
INFRASTRUCTURE
Looking at major investments in projects that will benefit the suburb or surrounds.
AINTREE (WOODLEA)
ALBION
SCHOOLS
Government school zones: Aintree Primary School (opened 2021) Yarrabing Secondary College (opened 2024)
KEY DEVELOPMENTS
• Woodlea Town Centre: $400m retail, dining and civic hub due 2026
• Melbourne Business Park (260 ha logistics estate on Boundary Rd) tipped to create 18 000 jobs—demand driver for rental stock.
GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS
• Woodlea Town Centre brings specialty cafés, pilates studios and a Coles–anchored dining lane.
• New primary and secondary schools attract double income professionals
• 70%+ owner occupation fosters pride of place landscaping and façade upgrades
POTENTIAL DRAWBACK
Large pipeline of greenfield lots; prices may track land release cadence rather than broader market cycle.
SCHOOLS
Government school zones: Albion Primary School, Sunshine College catchment
KEY DEVELOPMENTS
• Adjacency to Sunshine Superhub Station positions Albion for spill‑over gentrification
• Large lot sizes (600 m²+) offer redevelopment upside
GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS
• Heritage cottages near Albion Station undergoing architect led renovations
• Derrimut Street micro roastery and weekend farmers’ market draw Footscray spill over crowd
• Sunshine Superhub planning lifts investor interest in town house infill lots
POTENTIAL DRAWBACK
Perceived lower socio‑economic profile slows buyer pool expansion.
• Coastal lifestyle and school precincts keep vacancy below 2%
GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS
• Waterfront dining at Sanctuary Lakes and emerging craft coffee scene on Sneydes Rd
• High bachelor degree rate (41 %) drives demand for premium childcare and pilates studios
• Strong EV adoption visible in townhouse estates
POTENTIAL DRAWBACK
Aircraft noise corridor and limited rail capacity during peak.
SCHOOLS
Government school zones: Sunshine Primary School, Sunshine College (West & Senior)
KEY DEVELOPMENTS
Melbourne Airport Rail via Sunshine Station Superhub delivers 16‑min airport trip by 2032.
GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS
• Sunshine Station Superhub works spark café strip upgrades along Hampshire Road (specialty coffee, craft beer taproom, co working lofts)
• Victoria University Sunshine campus expansion brings design and health science students, lifting demand for boutique rentals
• Weekend farmers’ and makers markets in Sunvale Community Park attract inner north visitors
Heritage shopfronts on Devonshire Road receiving council façade refresh grants; several weatherboard cottages undergoing architect led renovations
• Street art festival and laneway murals funded through Brimbank Cultural Strategy signal creative industry presence
POTENTIAL DRAWBACK
Short‑term construction disruption and nearby apartment oversupply.
ST ALBANS
https://www.stalbanstowncentre.com.au/about
SCHOOLS
Government school zones: St Albans East Primary School, St Albans Secondary College
KEY DEVELOPMENTS
Level‑crossing removals completed; upgraded station improves rail frequency. Proximity to Sunshine Health, Education & Innovation Precinct underpins job growth.
GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS
• $230m station upgrade sparks Vietnamese fusion eateries and dessert bars on Alfrieda St
• Town house infill replacing post war weatherboards
• Victoria Uni health precinct expansion boosting student rental demand
POTENTIAL DRAWBACK
Ageing housing stock requires higher cap‑ex for compliance/renovation.
SCHOOLS
Government school zones: Tarneit College (P 9), Tarneit Senior College
KEY DEVELOPMENTS
Tarneit North rail station (approved) and Wyndham Stadium precinct will uplift amenities. Australian Bureau of Statistics lists Tarneit among Australia’s top‑five population growth suburbs.
GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS
• Tarneit Central lifestyle precinct hears first Michelin guide chain (Tim Ho Wan) outside CBD
• Railway car park redevelopment slated for mixed use apartments
• 26% of residents under 15 → demand for play space centric café concepts
POTENTIAL DRAWBACK
Greenfield supply pipeline may put a ceiling on price growth in softer markets.
WILLIAMS LANDING
SCHOOLS
Government school zones: Laverton College (P 12), Seabrook Primary School
KEY DEVELOPMENTS
• Master‑planned town centre with major employers (Target HQ)
• Direct freeway and rail access drives above‑average household incomes
GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS
• Overton Rd café corridor now hosts specialty roasters and child friendly brunch venues
• Commercial towers bring white collar lunch time economy
• Premium apartment projects (Parkgreen, Summit) achieving $9k +/ m² off plan
POTENTIAL DRAWBACK
Significant apartment pipeline may suppress capital growth short‑term.
SCHOOLS
Government school zones: Werribee Primary School, Werribee Secondary College (select entry)
KEY DEVELOPMENTS
Werribee East Employment Precinct slated to bring 58,000 jobs. Riverwalk and Princes Freeway upgrade enhance family appeal and CBD access.
GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS
• Wyndham Park riverfront activation (artisan market, open air cinema) draws weekend visitors
• University of Melbourne’s U Vet relocation and Riverwalk Primary attract educated households
• Historic shopfronts along Watton St undergoing terrace style refurbishments
POTENTIAL DRAWBACK
Ongoing house‑and‑land releases could cap short‑term capital growth.
MARKET DASHBOARD
WERRIBEE
MARKET DASHBOARD
TARNEIT
WERRIBEE
With the new Metro Tunnel, Western Distributor and West Gate Tunnel due to open late 2025, and Footscray Hospital due to open February 2026, it is clear that Victoria is “on the move”.
The west leads Victoria for committed transport spend. The West Gate Tunnel will shave up to 20 minutes off peak commutes from Werribee and Point Cook, while the Sunshine Station Superhub anchors both Suburban Rail Loop and Melbourne Airport Rail. Improved accessibility historically inflates land values within a 2km radius of new stations and interchanges.
The federal government has upped its pledge by $2b to now total $7b contribution to Airport Rail Link in order to get the project kick started. Part of the pledge goes towards 6kms of tracks between Footscray and Sunshine which will be upgraded with new signalling and a separation that will allow the Melton train line to become electrified. Works are expected to take 4 years alone which includes a major upgrade to the Sunshine Station (which is being coined the Southern Cross Station of the West).
Part of the Airport Rail link includes a massive rail bridge and Keilor East Train Station. All rail works for the west means better regional train services, which will take up to 2033 to complete and see trains coming out of Tullamarine.
INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT
The electrification of the Melton line is not included in this time line and neither is it in combined State and Federal budgets of $12b. The costs to build will be massive with new tracks to be laid. Future budgets will hopefully approve these works in years to come.
The 2025-26 Victorian State Budget includes increased funding for V/Line services, specifically focusing on boosting regional train services and improving reliability. This includes $52 million to increase carriages on Bendigo weekend services, add extra peak hour services to Seymour, and deliver 40-minute interpeak services between Traralgon and Melbourne. The budget also commits $270 million to maintain V/Line’s network and ensure a reliable and safe passenger experience. Additionally, $99 million is allocated to increase services on the Sandringham, Craigieburn, Upfield, Werribee, and Gippsland lines.
Suburban Rail Loop (SRL) Airport extends from Melbourne Airport to Sunshine. SRL Airport will connect Melbourne Airport to Victoria’s regional and metropolitan train network for the first time, with direct access to Melbourne Airport from more than 30 stations without the need to change trains. A new station in Keilor East will also be built as part of the project. A regional rail connection will also be built from Werribee to Sunshine as part the SRL West project.
A new Tram Maintenance Facility is being built in Maidstone to house, clean and maintain Victoria’s newest trams. These new and improved trams will be rolling out across route 57 and 82.
The Victorian Government has committed more than $900 million to deliver a new Melton Hospital in 2029. The brand-new hospital will support the growing and diverse communities of Caroline Springs, Rockbank, Melton, Bacchus Marsh and Gisborne. It will ensure the people of Melbourne’s west get the care they need, close to home.
The hospital will be Victoria’s first all-electric hospital and with a 24-hour emergency department, 274 beds, an intensive care unit, maternity and neonatal services, mental health services, radiology services and ambulatory care. Once completed, Melton Hospital will have the capacity to treat 130,000 patients each year and see almost 60,000 patients in the emergency department.
Out of all of Western Melbourne, Wyndham has the second largest population forecast, tipped to jump 47 percent by 2046. Melton has the largest forecast with a staggering 89 percent, underpinning sustained housing demand. Tarneit and Fraser Rise alone will require an additional 38,000 dwellings over the next two decades.
OWNERSHIP
OCCUPANCY
ALBANS
POINT COOK
FRASER RISE
MELTON ALTONA
DEER PARK
MEDIAN AGE % UNDER 15
DEFINITIONS
LABOUR FORCE PERCENTAGE:
The percentage of people working in the labour industry.
BACHELOR PERCENTAGE: The percentage of people with a bachelor’s degree.
MANOR LAKES COBBLEBANK
ECONOMIC & EMPLOYMENT GROWTH
The Victorian Government’s Activity Centre Program, aims to build 300,000 new homes within the eventual 60 activity centres, of which only 10 have so far been released these being: Preston (High Street), Broadmeadows, Niddrie (Keilor Road), North Essendon, Moorabbin, RIngwood, Frankston, Epping, Camberwell Junction and Chadstone Activity Centre.
The activity centres aims for housing to be well located by allowing the maximise use of existing infrastructure, services, jobs, green space and public transport. The idea for residents in living in these new zones will make day to day life easier, more convenient, and more sustainable. Following strong community feedback on the first 10 activity centres in 2024, Victorians valued strong transport connections. Planning for the next 25 activity centres is underway and will be released in later in 2025.
AINTREE (WOODLEA)
PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS
• Melbourne Business Park (260 ha): 18,000 local jobs across logistics, manufacturing and wholesale trade when built out $45m Woodlea Town Centre retail/dining hub (opened 2021) adds several hundred retail & hospitality roles
ALBION
PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS
• Shares the Sunshine Superhub employment uplift. Albion Station redevelopment included in the same works package, adding rail & construction
KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES
• Logistics & warehousing, large format retail, construction
FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS
• Stockland / Mt Atkinson & Mirvac JV at Melbourne Business Park; Woodlea Town Centre mixed use precinct; Hopkins Rd Business Precinct
KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES
• Construction, rail operations
FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS
• Albion Station rebuild; commercial TOD opportunities around the new concourse
PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS
• Limited land supply equals modest absolute job growth; focus on renewed foreshore tourism/ hospitality and high tech industry in the Williamstown Rd petro chem cluster
KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES
• Petro chemicals, marine services, tourism
PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS
• Tottenham Precinct urban renewal (former freight yards, $1.2 bn): rezoning approved 2024 for ~3 000 dwellings plus ≈2 500 permanent jobs in neighbourhood retail, health and education once fully built out (2032).
• Central West shopping centre master plan (lodged 2025) earmarks 18 000 m² extra commercial floorspace → 300 construction jobs, 600 ongoing roles in specialty retail & medical suites.
KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES
• Neighbourhood retail & services, small format logistics (“last mile”), education & allied health
FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS
• Altona pier & beachfront revitalisation program; Hobsons Bay Smart Energy precinct.
FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS
• Tottenham Precinct mixed use campus (lead developer: Perri Projects & Salta); Central West upgrade (Tipalea Partners); new micro fulfilment centres for Woolworths/Coles taking advantage of West Gate Tunnel connectivity
CAROLINE SPRINGS (CS)
PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS
• Western Interstate Freight Terminal (Truganina) plus proposed Outer Metro Road will underpin 39,000 freight & logistics jobs across the region; CS sits less than 3km east of the 100km freight corridor
• CS Square plaza upgrade driving new lifestyle appeal & retail employment
ALTONA COBBLEBANK BRAYBROOK
PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS
• Melton Hospital: 2,400 construction jobs and 3,975 ongoing health jobs in year 1 of operations (opens 2029).
• Council forecasts the hospital will catalyse 22,000 additional jobs in the Cobblebank Metropolitan Activity Centre. melton.vic.gov.au westernhealth.org.au
KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES
• Freight & logistics, warehousing, retail
FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS
• Western Intermodal Freight Terminal; CS Square mall expansion; Outer Metropolitan Ring transport corridor.
KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES
• Healthcare, retail & commercial services, construction
FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS
• New Melton Hospital campus; Cobblebank Metropolitan Activity Centre retail & office precinct; rail duplication/ electrification to Sunshine. conversations.melton.vic. gov.au
DEER PARK
PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS
• Costco Ardeer $118m warehouse opened Apr 2025; typical Costco format generates ≈300–350 ongoing retail roles plus seasonal
PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS
• New Footscray Hospital ($1.5bn, 500 beds) completes 2026; Western Health & Compass Group expect 2,000 clinical & 300 support
KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES
• Large format retail, logistics
FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS
• Costco (Ardeer), additional auto & trade supply outlets clustering along Ballarat Rd
KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES
• Health, tertiary education, creative industries
FRASER RISE/PLUMPTON
PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS
• Plumpton Town Centre & sports reserve will anchor a new community hub; Melton Local Government Area (LGA) forecasts +89 % population ~40,000 extra local jobs by 2046 (retail, education, services)
HILLSIDE/SYDENHAM FOOTSCRAY
KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES
• Retail services, education, construction
FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS
• Victoria Uni research hub; Metro Tunnel western portal; NEXTDC M3 data centre nearby
PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS
• Calder Park Dr level crossing removal & road bridge—part of Sunbury Line program—supports hundreds of construction roles through to 2025. bigbuild. vic.gov.aubigbuild.vic.gov.au
• Watergardens Town Centre refresh and tenant expansion continues to add retail jobs (21 vacancies listed Feb 2025).
KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES
• Retail & hospitality, transport, construction
FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS
• Plumpton Major Activity Centre; Kororoit Creek road duplication trade suppliers strip
FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS
• Watergardens Town Centre (QIC); Sunbury Line capacity upgrade; Calder Park Drive road bridge infrastructure.
DEVELOPMENTS IN THE WEST
FIG 1: Metro Tunnel
FIG 2: Sunshine Station Regional Superhub
FIG 3: Artist impression of Airport Station
FIG 1
FIG 2
FIG 3
DEVELOPMENTS IN THE WEST
FIG 4: 14km of new bike and walking trails from Westgate Freeway to CBD
FIG 5: Footscray Hospital
FIG 6: Melton Hospital
FIG 4
FIG 5
FIG 6
MANOR LAKES
PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS
• Manor Lakes Central (Stage 2): $60m expansion creating 300 construction jobs and 400 ongoing retail positions. denniscorp.com.aumanorlakes.com.au
• Wyndham Vale rail corridor upgrade supports short term civil construction employment.
MELTON
PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS
• Western Interstate Freight Terminal (WIFT) proposal in Truganina & Outer Metro Ring Road package could create 39,000 jobs across logistics, warehousing & road/rail worksleadwest.com.au
POINT COOK
PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS
• No single mega project but steady expansion of education & defence adjacent jobs (RAAF Williams), plus retail growth in Sneydes Rd precinct
SUNSHINE
PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS
• 1,200 construction jobs on the Sunshine Station Superhub (2026 30)
• Brimbank projects the resident & jobs population to double by 2050 within the Sunshine Priority Precinct brimbank.vic.gov.au
KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES
• Retail & personal services, transport, education
• National Intermodal freight hub (subject to Commonwealth approval)
KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES
• Transport & logistics, education, health
FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS
• Future secondary college campus; new large format homemaker centre
FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS
• Melbourne Airport Rail operations hub; Victoria University campus expansion; retail cluster anchored by Highpoint West
ST ALBANS
PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS
• Station grade separation complete; healthcare services growth tied to Sunshine Hospital precinct (see above). No discrete LGA forecast, but Brimbank’s +19% population growth implies 8,000 extra local jobs by 2046
TARNEIT
PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS
• Wyndham Stadium Precinct: 835 construction jobs + 125 ongoing roles (stadium ops, allied health, retail)
• Future mixed use “mini Melbourne” entertainment hub tipped to add further hospitality
KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES
• Health, allied services, small scale manufacturing
KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES
• Sport & entertainment, hospitality, retail
FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS
• Sunshine Health, Education & Innovation Precinct spill over tenancies
FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS
• Western United FC 15,000 seat stadium, Ironbark Fields sporting complex
WILLIAMS LANDING
PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS
• Master planned CBD continues to fill: Target HQ & SEEK / MyDeal offices anchor 2,500+ white collar roles once final towers delivered (council EOI data, 2024)
KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES
• ICT, head office admin, retail
FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS
• Cedar Woods stage 4 commercial towers; Wyndham City Civic Centre satellite
WERRIBEE
PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS
• East Werribee Employment Precinct slated for 58,300 permanent jobs across health, education, tech & agribusiness vpa.vic.gov.au vic.gov.au
KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES
• Bio science, advanced manufacturing, higher ed
FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS
• St Vincent’s Private Hospital, CSIRO Agribio hub, university research campuses
DEVELOPMENTS IN THE WEST
FIG 7: West Gate Tunnel
FIG 8: Hudson Hub new commercial project in WIlliams Landing https://www. cedarwoods.com.au/williams landing/commercial/offices for sale/hudson hub/ FIG 9: Costco Ardeer https://mainbrace.com.au/projects/costco ardeer/
FIG 7
FIG 8
FIG 9
GOVERNMENT POLICY PLANNING
The Labor government’s housing promises from the recent 2025 federal election, focusing on how they plan to support Australians into housing, assist first home buyers, address deposit challenges, support renters, enhance affordability, and boost home construction.
SUPPORT FOR FIRST HOME BUYERS
Deposit Scheme (Expanded First Home Guarantee)
Labor has expanded the existing First Home Guarantee scheme, allowing all first home buyers to purchase a home with just a 5% deposit without paying Lenders Mortgage Insurance (LMI). Previously, this scheme had income and participant caps, but the expansion removes these limitations, making it accessible to a broader range of buyers. For example, a Sydneysider could buy a $1 million property with a $50,000 deposit, saving up to $20,000 in LMI costs.
Help to Buy Shared Equity Scheme
This initiative enables eligible buyers to co purchase a home with the government, which can contribute up to 40% of the purchase price for new homes (30% for existing homes). This reduces the amount buyers need to borrow, lowering monthly repayments and making homeownership more attainable. Help to Buy is expected to open for applications later this year (following registration of the program directions, passage of state legislation, and implementation by Housing Australia). Purchase price cap increasing to 950k (up from $800k) for Metro Melbourne and 650k for regional (unchanged).
Construction of 100,000 Homes for First Home Buyers
Labor has committed $10 billion to build up to 100,000 homes exclusively for first home buyers. These homes will be constructed in partnership with states, developers, and community housing providers, with construction commencing in 2026 27 and occupancy beginning the following financial year.
Housing Australia Future Fund (HAFF)
The HAFF is a $10 billion investment fund aimed at building 30,000 new social and affordable homes over five years. The fund’s returns are used to finance the construction of these homes, addressing the housing supply shortage and improving affordability.
SUPPORT FOR RENTERS
Commonwealth Rent Assistance (CRA)
Labor plans to increase the CRA payments to provide additional support to low income renters, helping to alleviate rental stress and improve housing affordability.
Build to Rent Incentives
To boost the supply of rental properties, Labor has introduced tax incentives for developers to construct build to rent housing. This initiative aims to deliver approximately 80,000 additional rental units over a decade, increasing rental availability and stabilising prices.
ADDITIONAL MEASURES
Ban on Foreign Purchases of Existing Homes
To prioritise Australian buyers and reduce competition in the housing market, Labor has implemented a two year ban on foreign investors purchasing existing residential properties.
BROADER HOUSING SUPPLY INITIATIVES
National Housing Accord
Labor has set a target to build 1.2 million new homes by mid 2029 through the National Housing Accord. This ambitious plan involves collaboration with state governments and the private sector to accelerate housing construction and address the national housing shortage. One key reason new home construction hasn’t progressed as quickly as the government anticipated is that taxes make up 42% of the total cost of building a new home.
MARKET CYCLE
Melbourne’s western corridor is entering a rare window of value.
Median house prices sit 15-30 per cent below the metropolitan benchmark, yet billions in committed infrastructure— West Gate Tunnel, Melbourne Airport Rail and the Sunshine Superhub — are already under construction. Population forecasts point to Wyndham and Melton LGAs, growing by 155,557 and 214,859 respectively, underpinning rental demand and long-term capital growth.
Savvy buyers can still access spacious three- and four-bedroom homes for
the price of an inner-city apartment, lock in yields above four per cent and ride the upswing as major projects complete and constrained supply meets accelerating household formation. This is the west’s pivotal moment.
Nationally across the 6 major capital cities, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide have had a 5-year boom in real estate from 2020 to today, the chart at right shows you the generational opportunity that exists in Melbourne with only a 2.8% increase.
MAY 2020 T0 MAY 2025 (POST COVID)
SYDNEY MELBOURNE
*Note: figures are approximate, based on available data. Prices are for combined dwellings for houses & units.
MAY 2015 TO MAY 2020 (PRE COVID)
Winding the clock back 5 years prior to Covid the numbers show a different growth pattern particularly for Melbourne, where it has enjoyed the title of the 3rd best performing capital city with 26.2% growth, a stark contrast to the 2.8% 5 years later. Hobart experienced the highest growth over the five year period, with a significant increase of 55.1% in median dwelling prices.
SYDNEY MELBOURNE BRISBANE
PERTH
HOBART
*Note: May 2015 figures are approximate, based on available data. Prices are for combined dwellings for houses & units.
MAY 2015 TO MAY 2025
The table below paints the stories of growth over the last 10 years. Adelaide and Hobart had the highest growth over the past decade, with increases of 104.9% and 101.2%, respectively. This growth is attributed to factors such as affordability, lifestyle appeal, and increased interstate migration. Brisbane has also seen significant growth of 81.3%, driven by strong population growth and infrastructure development. Perth’s growth of 58.7% reflects a recovery from earlier market downturns, supported by the mining sector and increased demand. Sydney and Melbourne have experienced more moderate growth of 48.6% and 29.7%, respectively, due to higher base prices and affordability constraints.
SYDNEY MELBOURNE
$810,000 CITY 10 YEAR GROWTH DATA MAY 2015 MAY 2025 10 YR GROWTH $610,000 $506,553 $405,000 $513,000 $335,000
PERTH HOBART
*Note: May 2015 figures are approximate, based on available data. Prices are for combined dwellings for houses & units.
MAY 2023 TO MAY 2025
Judging by the table below, the 2 year trend across the 6 capital cities paints a renewal of growth for all states a part from Melbourne. Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth have experienced the highest growth over the past two years, each with approximately 10% increases in median dwelling values.
Sydney has seen moderate growth of 4.6%, while Hobart’s growth has been more subdued at 2.1%. Melbourne is the only capital city to record a decline in median dwelling values over the two year period, with a decrease of 2.3%.
*Note: Somes figures are
IN
SUMMARY
Melbourne’s comparatively modest property growth over the past decade and particularly the last 5 and 2 years can be attributed to a range of factors—many of which extend beyond government policy. At the heart of it is what can best be described as a COVID 19 hangover—a unique circumstance that no other capital city faced to the same extent. While government initiatives like the 10 year COVID Land Tax levy and the introduction of stricter regulations for landlords (rental providers) have certainly played a role, they are only part of the story.
Victoria also faces significant state debt, yet it is actively investing in its future through transformative infrastructure programs such as the Big Build. When it comes to tenancy reforms, Victoria has led the nation, and while some may criticise the extent of these changes, other states are expected to follow suit—if not fully, then in part.
Another contributing factor to Melbourne’s slower growth may lie in the lack of new support mechanisms for first home buyers. The stamp duty concessions have remained unchanged since 2017. It still offers a full exemption up to $600,000 and a partial concession up to $750,000—providing no adjustment for inflation or market movement since 2017.
Taxation on investment properties also remains a point of contention. The recently passed Fire Services Levy—as of May 2025—now places a heavier financial burden on landlords compared to owner occupiers, with the government anticipating an additional $2 billion in revenue.
But within this uncertainty lies opportunity. As Warren Buffett famously said, “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” For astute investors, Melbourne’s market conditions may represent precisely that kind of moment.
To summarise, Melbourne landlords have had 2 varied reactions to the Government policy. The first being “it’s all too hard” and “we’re not playing anymore”. The second being, “we’re in it for the long run”.
A recent study conducted over two decades puts these mindsets into perspective, approximately one in five investment properties are sold within the first year of ownership, while 28 per cent are held for more than 20 years. The motto should always be “buy well and never sell”.
In 2025, realestate.com.au announced their Hot 100 Suburbs of Victoria, 3 of which being suburbs in Melbourne’s west. Werribee, Sunshine West and Braybrook were named in the Hot 100 Suburbs, due to their affordable housing, with houses being up to 20% cheaper than what was typically seen in other parts of Victoria. Shepparton and Karingal were also included in the Hot 100 for their affordability.
WERRIBEE SUNSHINE
WEST
BRAYBROOK
KARINGAL
More information can be found here: https://www.realestate.com.au/insights/hottest affordable suburbs for 2025 in your state/
Source: PropTrack.
TOP 100 SUBURBS
FIG 10: Braybrook Camp Ground Kitchen & Bar https://www.visitmelbourne.com/ regions/melbourne/destinations/melbournes west
FIG 11: Werribee Werribee River https://www.wyndham.vic.gov.au/visitor economy industry hub
FIG 12: Sunshine West Sunshine Social https://www.mammaknowswest.com.au/ mammasyummies content/sunshine social sunshine west
FIG 10
FIG 11
FIG 12
SOURCES & DISCLAIMER
Data sources: realestate.com.au Forecast.id
SQM Research
Victorian Government Big Build project announcements. Census 2021 Victorian Planning Authority https://vpa.vic.gov.au/activitycentres/ Cotality Chat GPT
The information contained in the Axis Guide is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice.
While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the information provided. Readers are encouraged to seek independent professional advice before making any property or financial decisions.
OBrien Real Estate disclaims all liability for any loss or damage arising from reliance on the information contained in this guide.
