Property Axis Central & Outer Eastern Melbourne

EDITION 1 | 2025 CENTRAL & OUTER EAST MELBOURNE

WHERE DATA MEETS DIRECTION

A GUIDE BY OBRIEN REAL ESTATE

OBRIEN REAL ESTATE IS A LEADING VICTORIAN AGENCY NETWORK WITH DEEP EXPERTISE ACROSS MELBOURNE’S CENTRAL & OUTER EAST. WE COMBINE RIGOROUS DATA ANALYSIS WITH ON‑THE‑GROUND MARKET KNOWLEDGE TO HELP INVESTORS MAKE CONFIDENT DECISIONS.

A GUIDE TO PROPERTY TRENDS, MARKET MOVEMENTS, AND INVESTMENT INSIGHTS ACROSS MELBOURNE’S CENTRAL & OUTER EAST

Melbourne’s central east to outer east arc offers a unique blend of established leafy streets, blue-chip school zones and a wave of new infrastructure that is set to recalibrate travel times, job density and lifestyle amenity.

4

Westfield Knox’s $355 million reboot, the Metro Tunnel (2025), The Suburban Rail Loop East’s, 6 underground train stations and the North East Link (2028) collectively knit these suburbs more tightly to the CBD and to each other, while town-square renewals in Boronia, Croydon and Mooroolbark seed café culture into once sleepy retail strips.

Axis applies a five‑pillar framework to identify they drivers of growth.

Population growth is now quality-led rather than volume-led: ABS data show tertiary-educated residents and dual income families expanding at twice the metropolitan rate, vacancy averages sit near 1 percent, and school zone premiums in Vermont, Glen Waverley and Mount Waverley continue to command record land prices.

Applying these benchmarks to 25 key suburbs, we help investors and home buyers align strategy, whether yield, growth or balanced, to each location’s evolving fundamentals.

OBRIEN REAL ESTATE

AXIS | CENTRAL & OUTER EAST

Yet pockets such as Bayswater, Mooroolbark and Ferntree Gully still transact 25 percent below their inner-east equivalents, creating an “affordability meets amenity” gap for astute buyers.

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

Infrastructure Development Population Growth & Demographics Economic / Employment Growth Government Planning / Policy Market Cycle

CONTENTS

07

SUBURB SNAPSHOTS

20

MARKET DASHBOARD

32

INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT

34

POPULATION DEMOGRAPHICS

42

OCCUPANCY SNAPSHOT

48

ECONOMIC & EMPLOYMENT GROWTH

60

GOVERNMENT POLICY PLANNING

62

MARKET CYCLE

5

SUBURB METHODOLOGY SELECTION AFFORDABILITY

Either low prices suiting buyers on a budget or relative affordability compared to nearby suburbs.

6 AMENITY

Being the level of lifestyle benefits, from bars and restaurants to boutiques and parklands.

FAMILY APPEAL

Such as dwelling type, perceived safety and proximity to good schools.

OBRIEN REAL ESTATE

AXIS | CENTRAL & OUTER EAST

LOCATION

Including proximity to the CBD or major hubs, or closeness to natural amentities like beaches.

INVESTMENT PROSPECTS

From rental market conditions to expected imminent upside.

GENTRIFICATION

Being the changing face of a suburb

POPULATION GROWTH

Representing a projected increase in the number of locals.

DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE

Indicating a shift from the current make-up of residents, for example young families replacing downsizing elderly locals.

INFRASTRUCTURE

Looking at major investments in projects that will benefit the suburb or surrounds.

City of Monash

14km

from the CBD

3.90%

5 year population growth

16 years

avg length of ownership

11 2.6 sq km

parks size

SCHOOLS Government school zones: Ashwood Primary School, Ashwood High

SUBURB SNAPSHOTS

ASHWOOD KEY DEVELOPMENTS • Markham Ave public-housing renewal (250 dwellings + community hub); Gardiners Creek shared-path lighting & boardwalk upgrade GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS • Café hub growing on High St; post-war fibre cottages replaced by dualoccupancies; Alfred Rd micro-brewery draws Chadstone spill-over POTENTIAL DRAWBACK Small blocks (<550 m²) can limit extension upside; busy Warrigal Rd traffic noise

https://www.melbourneplaygrounds.com.au/gardiners-creek-reserve-ashwoodburwood

7

BAYSWATER City of Knox

26km

from the CBD

4.30%

5 year population growth

12 years

avg length of ownership

17 7.9 sq km

parks size

SCHOOLS Government school zones: Bayswater Primary School, Bayswater Secondary College KEY DEVELOPMENTS • Mountain Hwy/Bayswater Rd intersection duplication; Bayswater Station TOD master-plan (8-storey mixed-use, 6 000 m² retail) lodged 2025 GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS • Warehouse conversions to Pilates & co-working near Station St; $60 m Bayswater Station TOD adds retail POTENTIAL DRAWBACK Industrial pockets still generate truck traffic; Knox SC catchment boundary can shift.

DEFINITION https://bigbuild.vic.gov.au/news/level-crossing-removal-project/major-workshttps://www.mammaknowseast.com.au/parks-and-playgrounds/train-parkbayswater

NDA: no data available

BLACKBURN City of Whitehorse

17km

from the CBD

3.90%

5 year population growth

15 years

avg length of ownership

23

parks

5.9 sq km

size

SCHOOLS Government school zones: Blackburn Primary School, Laburnum Primary School, Box Hill High School KEY DEVELOPMENTS • Blackburn Station precinct streetscape makeover; Eastern Fwy noise-wall & bus-lane upgrade linked to North East Link early works.

GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS • “Bellbird” heritage area restorations; Laburnum Village brunch strip; Box Hill HS zone premium creeping west POTENTIAL DRAWBACK Strict vegetation overlay limits knock-downs; V/Line boom-gate noise at peak

https://blackburnlakesanctuary.org/

8

BLACKBURN SOUTH City of Whitehorse

16km

from the CBD

1.40%

5 year population growth

16 years

avg length of ownership

OBRIEN REAL ESTATE

AXIS | CENTRAL & OUTER EAST

17

parks

3.6 sq km

https://www.tripadvisor.com.au/Attractions-g1881396-Activities-Blackburn_ South_Whitehorse_Greater_Melbourne_Victoria.html

size

SCHOOLS Government school zones: Orchard Grove Primary School, Forest Hill Secondary College KEY DEVELOPMENTS • Orchard Grove Reserve pavilion rebuild; Middleborough Rd SmartBus priority lanes GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS • 1960s brick-veneer renos, new townhouses on Middleborough Rd; Orchard Grove café cluster POTENTIAL DRAWBACK No train station—values hinge on bus links; dual school zones confuse buyers

City of Knox

29km

from the CBD

6.40%

5 year population growth

13 years

avg length of ownership

36 11.3 sq km

parks size

SCHOOLS Government school zones: Boronia College (Prep - 12)

SUBURB SNAPSHOTS

BORONIA KEY DEVELOPMENTS • Boronia Renewal Plan: new station plaza, multi-deck car-park & 3 000 m² civic square (Knox C172); Dorset Rd duplication design 2026 GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS • Alpine St plaza facelift; craft-beer bar & monthly maker’s market; Knox Rail Trail upgraded POTENTIAL DRAWBACK Higher apartment pipeline near station may soften rents; perception lag vs Rowville

https://www.suburbandevelopment.vic.gov.au/suburban-revitalisation/boronia

9

BOX HILL City of Whitehorse

14km

from the CBD

26%

5 year population growth

14 years

avg length of ownership

18 3.5 sq km

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Box_Hill,_Victoria

parks size

SCHOOLS Government school zones: Laburnum Primary School, Box Hill High School KEY DEVELOPMENTS • $2 bn Box Hill Central redevelopment + SRL North underground station & bus hub; ATO office tower (19 storeys) tops out 2025 GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS • $2 bn Box Hill Central redevelopment; 40-storey air-rights towers; Whitehorse Road “Asian food mile” POTENTIAL DRAWBACK Potential apartment oversupply; congestion on Station St/Elgar Rd

BURWOOD City of Whitehorse

14km

from the CBD

0.8%

5 year population growth

16 years

avg length of ownership

28 6 sq km

parks size

SCHOOLS Government school zones: Wattle Park Primary School, Ashwood High KEY DEVELOPMENTS • Deakin University Health Innovation precinct (DLearn Stage 2); Burwood Brickworks Stage II 200-apartment eco-village GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS • Deakin Uni campus expansion, tramstop TOD units; Toorak Rd Korean BBQ strip vibrant POTENTIAL DRAWBACK Limited rail; student rentals create turnover; 70 km/h traffic on Burwood Hwy.

https://www.brickworks.com.au/articles/projects/burwood-brickworks-worldsmost-sustainable-shopping-centre/

10

CROYDON City of Maroondah

29km 6.20%

5 year population growth

13 years

avg length of ownership

AXIS | CENTRAL & OUTER EAST

52

OBRIEN REAL ESTATE

from the CBD

14.1 sq km

https://www.croydonmainstreet.com.au/

parks size

SCHOOLS Government school zones: Croydon Primary School, Croydon Secondary College KEY DEVELOPMENTS • Elevated Croydon Station & Town Square (LXRP) opens 2026; Tarralla Creek linear parkland completes 2027 GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS • $50 m Town Square upgrade; boutique cafés on Main St; Maroondah Hwy level-crossing removal funded POTENTIAL DRAWBACK Bushfire overlay in north-east blocks; distance to CBD still 40 min express

City of Manningham

14km

from the CBD

19.40%

5 year population growth

13 years

avg length of ownership

31 8.8 sq km

parks size

SCHOOLS Government school zones: Doncaster Gardens Primary School, Doncaster Secondary College

SUBURB SNAPSHOTS

DONCASTER

KEY DEVELOPMENTS • North East Link’s dedicated Doncaster Busway + Park-&-Ride (1 200 spaces, 2028) • Doncaster Hill mixed-use tower cluster (20–35 storeys) under construction GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS • Westfield Doncaster $500 m expansion inc. hotel; high-rise office hub emerging; BRT (bus rapid) lanes trial POTENTIAL DRAWBACK No rail line yet—SRL North not due until 2035; steep hills complicate builds

11

https://www.manningham.vic.gov.au/about-council/discover-our-area-history-and-demographics

DONVALE City of Manningham

20km

from the CBD

2.40%

5 year population growth

16 years

avg length of ownership

26 11.7 sq km

parks size

SCHOOLS Government school zones: Donvale Primary School, Mullauna Secondary College KEY DEVELOPMENTS • Mullum Mullum Stadium precinct landscaping Stage 2; Warrandyte Rd/ EastLink slip-lane safety upgrade funded 2026 GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS • Acre lots subdividing into luxury infill; new $30 m Donvale Christian up-grade draws families POTENTIAL DRAWBACK Bushfire & vegetation overlays; limited public-transport linkage

https://www.visitmorningtonpeninsula.org/Things-To-Do/Adventure-Attractions/View/56b24fd926614059456936d1/Royal-Botanic-Gardens-Victoria-Cranbourne-Gardens

FERNTREE GULLY City of Knox

29km

12

3.70%

5 year population growth

15 years

avg length of ownership

45

AXIS | CENTRAL & OUTER EAST

14 sq km

parks size

KEY DEVELOPMENTS • Knox Private/Kurrajong Reserve healthhub expansion; Quarry Park lakeside town-house estate (450 dwellings) breaks ground 2025 GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS • Quarry Park development adds lakefront town-houses; rail-trail cafes; Knox Hospital expansion POTENTIAL DRAWBACK Aircraft noise corridor; larger lots attract multi-unit but planning caps heights

FOREST HILL City of Whitehorse

19km

from the CBD

1.40%

5 year population growth

15 years

avg length of ownership

12 4.1 sq km

OBRIEN REAL ESTATE

from the CBD

SCHOOLS Government school zones: Ferntree Gully Primary School, Fairhills Secondary College

parks size

SCHOOLS Government school zones: Parkmore Primary School, Forest Hill Secondary College KEY DEVELOPMENTS • Brentford Square revitalisation (alfresco dining, piazza); Springvale Rd/ Canterbury Rd intersection smart-signal upgrade GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS • Brentford Square revamp; townhouse boom around Springvale Rd; Nunawading SC zone spill-over POTENTIAL DRAWBACK No train; heavier traffic on Canterbury Rd; some vinyl-clad asbestos

City of Monash

19km

from the CBD

5.70%

5 year population growth

15 years

avg length of ownership

53

parks

16.8 sq km

size

SCHOOLS Government school zones: Glen Waverley Primary School, Glen Waverley Secondary College

SUBURB SNAPSHOTS

GLEN WAVERLEY

KEY DEVELOPMENTS • Kingsway dining precinct adds BTR tower; GW SC (ranked top 5) continues to attract high-income migrants GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS • Kingsway dining-precinct streetscape makeover • BTR tower (24 storeys); SRL East tunnelling launch site south of station (2026 onward).

POTENTIAL DRAWBACK Congestion at peak; price ceiling tested ($2 m+ medians); apartment shadowing

LYSTERFIELD City of Knox & Shire of Yarra Ranges

30km

from the CBD

0.30%

5 year population growth

15

avg length of ownership

17

parks

31.3 sq km

size

SCHOOLS Government school zones: Lysterfield Primary School, Rowville Secondary College KEY DEVELOPMENTS • Wellington Rd duplication (north-bound overtaking lanes) design phase • Lysterfield Park MTB trail network upgrade & trailhead café GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS • Acreage subdivisions into lifestyle estates • Mountain-bike park boosts tourism; FTTP NBN rollout.

POTENTIAL DRAWBACK Bushfire overlay & septic tanks; cardependent

https://www.alltrails.com/trail/australia/victoria/lysterfield-lake-loop

13

MITCHAM City of Whitehorse

21km

from the CBD

4%

5 year population growth

15 years

avg length of ownership

23 6.6 sq km

parks size

SCHOOLS Government school zones: Mitcham Primary School, Mullauna Secondary College KEY DEVELOPMENTS • Mitcham Rd sky-rail linear park (1.6 km) completes 2025 • Britannia Mall pedestrian-priority zone with weekend market power GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS • Britannia Mall streetscape • Craft-roaster cafés • Level-crossing removal approved (Mitcham Rd).

POTENTIAL DRAWBACK Rail-noise during works; older stock with stump issues

OBRIEN REAL ESTATE

AXIS | CENTRAL & OUTER EAST

14

https://mindtrip.ai/location/mitcham-victoria/mitcham/lo-9lkZEcHj

SUBURB SNAPSHOTS

https://www.alltrails.com/trail/australia/victoria/mooroolbark-shared-path

MOOROOLBARK Shire of Yarra Ranges

32km

from the CBD

5%

5 year population growth

13

avg length of ownership

44

parks

12.4 sq km

size

SCHOOLS Government school zones: Mooroolbark Primary School, Mooroolbark College KEY DEVELOPMENTS Mooroolbark Station elevated hub + 5 800 m² retail podium (opened 2023) – stage-2 town-house precinct now selling; Maroondah Hwy bike-lane extension GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS • Elevated station complete; $50 m Mooroolbark Hub TOD; café culture emerging POTENTIAL DRAWBACK Apartment oversupply risk; distance to CBD (44 min express)

MOUNT WAVERLEY City of Monash

16km

from the CBD

5.10%

5 year population growth

16

avg length of ownership

41

parks

15.2 sq km

size

SCHOOLS Government school zones: Mount Waverley Primary School, Mount Wavery Secondary College KEY DEVELOPMENTS • Mount Waverley Village streetscape rebirth (alfresco parklets, smart lighting); Damper Creek boardwalk renewal GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS • Pinewood hub adds Asian food precinct; MW SC academic premium; EV chargers at Valley Rd shops POTENTIAL DRAWBACK Heritage overlays near Damper Creek; potential over-capitalisation on split-level sites

15

NUNAWADING Shire of Whitehorse

19km

from the CBD

4.50%

5 year population growth

16 years

avg length of ownership

23 5.1 sq km

parks size

SCHOOLS Government school zones: Mount Pleasant Primary School, Vermont Secondary College KEY DEVELOPMENTS • 3 ha linear park under SkyRail viaduct complete • Nunawading Community Hub stage-2 sports courts (2026) GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS • Brand-new sky-rail station + linear park • Homewares outlets turned microbreweries POTENTIAL DRAWBACK • Industrial land rezoning may flood townhouse supply • EastLink noise east of highway

16

https://www.proludic.com.au/reference/vic-jubilee-street-reserve-nunawading-playground/

RINGWOOD

OBRIEN REAL ESTATE

AXIS | CENTRAL & OUTER EAST

City of Maroondah

24km

from the CBD

9.60%

5 year population growth

13 years

avg length of ownership

35 10.2 sq km

parks size

SCHOOLS Government school zones: Great Ryrie Primary School, Ringwood Secondary College KEY DEVELOPMENTS • Eastland stage-6 lifestyle wing & hotel (opening 2027); Maroondah Hospital $250 m redevelopment adds 90 beds by 2028 GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS • $1.2 bn Eastland stage-6; Costco + office tower; Ringwood Station upgrade finished.

POTENTIAL DRAWBACK Maroondah Hwy congestion; apartment tower glut possible

SUBURB SNAPSHOTS

https://fishingmad.com.au/location/rowville-lakes

ROWVILLE City of Knox

28km

from the CBD

0.30%

5 year population growth

17 years

avg length of ownership

63 21.7 sq km

parks size

SCHOOLS Government school zones: Rowville Primary School, Rowville Secondary College KEY DEVELOPMENTS • Rowville Rail (Monash–Rowville) business case lodged 2025; Stud Park Shopping Centre upgrade + civic library announced GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS • Stud Park mall upgrade; Rowville Rail (sub-corridor) business case; golfcourse townhouse projects POTENTIAL DRAWBACK No rail yet; bus-only induces long CBD commutes; oversupply of 1990s 4-bed homes

VERMONT Shire of Whitehorse

21km

from the CBD

5.30%

5 year population growth

18 years

avg length of ownership

17 4.6 sq km

parks size

SCHOOLS Government school zones: Vermont Primary School, Vermont Secondary College KEY DEVELOPMENTS • EastLink Trail lighting to Bellbird Dell • Vermont Secondary College performing-arts centre (2025-27) GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS • EastLink trail cafés • Vermont SC VCE results keep demand high • Townhouse infill along Canterbury Rd POTENTIAL DRAWBACK • Limited retail nightlife • Strict vegetation overlays

17

VERMONT SOUTH City of Whitehorse

20km

from the CBD

2.40%

5 year population growth

22 years

avg length of ownership

24 6.2 sq km

parks size

SCHOOLS Government school zones: Weeden Heights Primary School, Livingstone Primary School, Vermont Secondary College KEY DEVELOPMENTS • Burwood Hwy tram-terminus TOD concept plan (500 apartments, health suites); Hanover Rd Community Hub refurbishment GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS • Refurbished Vermont South Shopping Centre now hosts craft-coffee roaster and Pilates studio • Burwood Hwy tram-terminus TOD concept (tram-extension business case to Knox) prompting townhouse siteassemblies POTENTIAL DRAWBACK Heavy Burwood Hwy traffic and tram bells for frontage properties; 1970s brick-veneer stock may require asbestos remediation.

18

https://www.parks.vic.gov.au/places-to-see/parks/langwarrin-flora-and-fauna-reserve

WANTIRNA/WANTIRNA SOUTH AXIS | CENTRAL & OUTER EAST

City of Knox

24km 3%

5 year population growth

16 years

avg length of ownership

53 8.3 sq km

OBRIEN REAL ESTATE

from the CBD

parks size

SCHOOLS Government school zones: Wantirna Primary School, Wantirna College KEY DEVELOPMENTS • Knox Private Hospital $140 m expansion (cardiac & oncology wards, 2026) • Wantirna Health ageing-well precinct rezoned.

• Westfield Knox $355 m stage-2 (entertainment & dining) opens 2026 • Swinburne Wantirna campus trades/ vet-tech hub upgrade GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS • Knox Private Hospital $140 m expansion • Knox City mall reboot • Tram-link feasibility (Rowville) POTENTIAL DRAWBACK Traffic on Stud Rd; oversupply risk from Knox megasite apartments

SUBURB SNAPSHOTS

https://www.visitvictoria.com/regions/melbourne/see-and-do/nature-and-wildlife/parks-and-gardens/jells-park

WHEELERS HILL

19

City of Monash

22km

from the CBD

4.60%

5 year population growth

21

avg length of ownership

51

parks

10.4 sq km

size

SCHOOLS Government school zones: Wheelers Hill Primary School, Brentwood Secondary College KEY DEVELOPMENTS • Monash Gallery of Art precinct redevelopment (café, sculpture park) • Jells Park lake-edge boardwalk renewal 2025 GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS • Monash Gallery of Art precinct upgrade • Glen Waverley rail-trail to Jells Park • New luxury duplex builds POTENTIAL DRAWBACK • Steep blocks , increases build cost • Ageing split-level houses need renovations

HOUSES

OBRIEN REAL ESTATE

AXIS | CENTRAL & OUTER EAST

20

SUBURB

MEDIAN HOUSE PRICE

1 YEAR GROWTH (%)

5 YEAR GROWTH (%)

ASHWOOD

$1,470,000

-5.5%

20.99%

BAYSWATER

$880,750

3.6%

16.50%

BLACKBURN

$1,545,000

1.5%

14.44%

BLACKBURN SOUTH

$1,383,000

2.4%

25.73%

BORONIA

$860,500

1.2%

20.35%

BOX HILL

$1,625,000

8.3%

5.18%

BURWOOD

$1,453,500

1.0%

23.97%

CROYDON

$882,500

-1.9%

17.40%

DONCASTER

$1,456,000

-2.8%

12.39%

DONVALE

$1,535,000

-6.6%

15.51%

MARKET DASHBOARD MEDIAN WEEKLY RENT

GROSS RENTAL YIELD

$650

2.6%

$580

3.3%

$650

2.3%

$650

2.6%

$595

3.8%

$650

2.4%

$700

2.4%

$620

3.6%

$780

2.7%

$790

3.1%

21

HOUSES

OBRIEN REAL ESTATE

AXIS | CENTRAL & OUTER EAST

22

SUBURB

MEDIAN HOUSE PRICE

1 YEAR GROWTH (%)

5 YEAR GROWTH (%)

FERNTREE GULLY

$880,000

-3.2%

18.92%

FOREST HILL

$1,200,000

0.0%

22.20%

GLEN WAVERLEY

$1,665,000

-2.5%

25.47%

LYSTERFIELD

$1,361,444

4.3%

39.99%

MITCHAM

$1,180,000

-1.7%

17.12%

MOOROOLBARK

$815,000

-2.1%

18.98%

MOUNT WAVERLEY

$1,619,000

-0.7%

21.73%

NUNAWADING

$1,133,500

-6.3%

17.46%

RINGWOOD

$1,018,000

1.8%

19.17%

ROWVILLE

$1,060,000

-4.5%

27.56%

MARKET DASHBOARD MEDIAN WEEKLY RENT

GROSS RENTAL YIELD

$600

3.6%

$635

2.9%

$750

2.3%

$650

3.4%

$627

2.9%

$565

4.0%

$710

2.3%

$612

2.9%

$620

3.1%

$620

3.2%

23

HOUSES

OBRIEN REAL ESTATE

AXIS | CENTRAL & OUTER EAST

24

SUBURB

MEDIAN HOUSE PRICE

1 YEAR GROWTH (%)

5 YEAR GROWTH (%)

VERMONT

$1,230,000

-4.2%

18.67%

VERMONT SOUTH

$1,477,500

-2.2%

23.13%

WANTIRNA

$1,151,000

2.1%

26.48

WANTIRNA SOUTH

$1,225,500

-5.7%

20.03%

WHEELERS HILL

$1,446,000

-4.2%

30.39%

MARKET DASHBOARD MEDIAN WEEKLY RENT

GROSS RENTAL YIELD

$645

2.8%

$730

2.8%

$650

3.0%

$650

3.0%

$705

2.7%

25

UNITS

OBRIEN REAL ESTATE

AXIS | CENTRAL & OUTER EAST

26

SUBURB

MEDIAN UNIT PRICE

1 YEAR GROWTH (%)

5 YEAR GROWTH (%)

ASHWOOD

$1,042,000

-5.3%

19.84%

BAYSWATER

$680,000

1.6%

13.33%

BLACKBURN

$765,500

1.70%

29.69%

BLACKBURN SOUTH

$779,500

-14.4%

-11.02%

BORONIA

$656,000

-0.8%

11.75%

BOX HILL

$550,000

-6.9%

-8.38%

BURWOOD

$730,000

-14.2%

1.25%

CROYDON

$656,000

-3.5%

13.84%

DONCASTER

$598,000

-5.0%

-1.36%

DONVALE

$817,500

-3.8%

3.38%

MARKET DASHBOARD MEDIAN WEEKLY RENT

GROSS RENTAL YIELD

$655

3.7%

$540

4.2%

$545

3.80%

$600

4.6%

$530

4.1%

$580

5.80%

$550

4.5%

$530

4.3%

$600

5.2%

$615

3.8%

27

UNITS

OBRIEN REAL ESTATE

AXIS | CENTRAL & OUTER EAST

28

SUBURB

MEDIAN UNIT PRICE

1 YEAR GROWTH (%)

5 YEAR GROWTH (%)

FERNTREE GULLY

$665,000

-2.6%

13.52%

FOREST HILL

$661,250

-20.3%

-14.51%

GLEN WAVERLEY

$920,000

4.5%

9.39%

NDA

NDA

NDA

MITCHAM

$790,000

-3.7%

9.72%

MOOROOLBARK

$697,500

3.3%

26.13%

MOUNT WAVERLEY

$1,067,500

-2.3%

6.96%

NUNAWADING

$738,000

0.1%

-1.60%

RINGWOOD

$620,000

0.0%

12.12%

ROWVILLE

$735,000

0.9%

17.04%

LYSTERFIELD

MARKET DASHBOARD MEDIAN WEEKLY RENT

GROSS RENTAL YIELD

$560

4.3%

$530

3.9%

$680

4.1%

NDA

4.1%

$555

3.8%

$500

4.3%

$680

3.6%

$530

3.8%

$520

4.4%

29

DEFINITION

$552

4.2%

NDA: no data available

UNITS

OBRIEN REAL ESTATE

AXIS | CENTRAL & OUTER EAST

30

SUBURB

MEDIAN UNIT PRICE

1 YEAR GROWTH (%)

5 YEAR GROWTH (%)

VERMONT

$909,444

-11.5%

16.60%

VERMONT SOUTH

$865,000

-2.80%

-1.70%

WANTIRNA

$678,000

-8.10%

2.73%

WANTIRNA SOUTH

$645,000

-3.40%

0.47%

WHEELERS HILL

$915,000

-12.90%

2.75%

MARKET DASHBOARD MEDIAN WEEKLY RENT

GROSS RENTAL YIELD

$625

3.7%

$655

3.8%

$580

4.1%

$560

4.1%

$600

4.8%

31

INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT Three flagship projects will reshape accessibility, employment and lifestyle from Ashwood to Ringwood—and they all converge on Box Hill, Bulleen and Glen/Mt Waverley.

THE METRO TUNNEL The Victorian Govt approved the Metro Tunnel in February 2015, is the state’s largest rail undertaking since City Loop. Four tunnel-boring machines were turning by mid-2019. Two ninekilometre tunnels will link the Sunbury line with the Cranbourne-Pakenham corridor, allowing trains to run straight through the city instead of terminating at Flinders Street.

32

Five new underground stations—Arden, Parkville, State Library, Town Hall and Anzac—are on track to open in late 2025. When they do, peak-hour capacity on the Cranbourne–Pakenham pair will jump about 45 per cent and commuters from Glen Waverley or Mount Waverley will no longer need to change platforms in town. Parallel levelcrossing projects extend the benefits further east: Croydon’s elevated station and civic square are due mid-2026, Boronia’s raised rail and town plaza break ground in 2026, and Mooroolbark’s “sky-rail” station—opened in 2021—has already freed up forecourt land now filling with cafés and weekend markets.

OBRIEN REAL ESTATE

AXIS | CENTRAL & OUTER EAST

NORTH EAST LINK Complementing the Metro rail upgrade is the North East link, which received planning approval in 2019. An $11-billion road construction contract was entered into by October 2021.

The major earthworks on the 6.5-kilometre twin road tunnels between Watsonia and Bulleen began in 2022. Scheduled to open in 2028, the tunnels will lift 15 000 trucks a day off Rosanna, Heidelberg and Bulleen streets while trimming up to 35 minutes from trips between the Eastern Freeway and the M80 Ring Road.

The project also overhauls 34 kilometres of the Eastern Freeway with dedicated express-bus lanes and a new 500-space Bulleen Park-andRide, set to open in 2027. Cyclists and walkers gain 35 kilometres of continuous off-road trail linking the Yarra and Mullum Mullum creek corridors, plus ten hectares of new parkland along Banyule Creek. For residents and investors

across Box Hill, Bulleen and Glen Waverley, the combined rail-and-road program compresses travel times, removes heavy traffic from local high streets and seeds new café strips around upgraded station plazas and bus hubs—powerful ingredients for sustained real-estate demand in Melbourne’s middle-east.

THE SUBURBAN RAIL LOOP (SRL) The first stage of the Suburban Rail Loop (SRL) is called SRL East, which started construction in mid-2022 and is expected to be completed by 2035. The loop will run 26 kilometres of twin tunnels underground. Stations located at Cheltenham, Clayton, Monash, Glen Waverley, Burwood, and Box Hill, these six underground stations have planned major activity centres around them for high rise complexes, shopping, amenities and recreation. There will be new interchanges within the existing rail stations at Cheltenham, Clayton, Glen Waverley, and Box Hill.

SRL East will have super-hubs at Clayton (Monash) and Glen Waverley. Glen Waverley, already a top-five school zone, is rezoning 12 ha around Kingsway for mid-rise apartments, buildto-rent towers and a tech coworking hub.

Box Hill’s underground interchange anchors a $2 billion air-rights redevelopment—two office towers, a health precinct and the CBD-scale Box Hill Central makeover—positioning the suburb as Victoria’s second-largest employment node.

In addition to SRL East there will also be a second stage, called SRL North, with stations at Doncaster, Heidelberg, Bundoora, Reservoir, Fawkner, and Broadmeadows. This second stage of the project, currently in early planning, it will eventually connect Box Hill to Melbourne Airport. SRL North is expected to be complete by 2053.

Complementing these ‘big three’ is a network of precinct upgrades.

•

Box Hill: An ATO tower tops out (19 storeys), the $120 m Epworth Eastern expansion adds 48 oncology beds, and Box Hill Institute’s Health-Innovation Centre opens 2027.

•

Knox Private Hospital $140 m expansion (2026) and Maroondah Hospital $250 m rebuild (2028) anchor health-sector jobs in Wantirna, Ringwood and Vermont.

•

Eastland Stage 6 ($1.2 bn) and Westfield Knox ($355 m) add hotel and dining wings, lifting white-collar day-time populations.

•

Bulleen: a $250 m sporting and cultural precinct replaces former tennis-centre land, linking to the Yarra Trail via the North East Link’s new green bridge.

•

Knox Innovation, Opportunity & Sustainability Centre (KIOSC) Expansion, Wantirna: An $85 million STEM campus extension backed by Swinburne University and Knox Council. Approved in February 2025 and breaking ground early-2026, the project doubles lab space, adds a cleanenergy testing hall and is forecast to host 700 additional tertiary and industry trainees each year.

•

Mount Waverley: Damper Creek boardwalk renewal and the Mount Waverley Village alfresco-dining upgrade enhance walkability, while Monash Freeway smartlane works (completed 2024) shave peak trips to the CBD by ten minutes.

Together these investments compress commute times, expand high-skill job nodes and entrench land-supply constraints—proven drivers of capital growth and resilient yields across Melbourne’s eastern arc.

33

34

OBRIEN REAL ESTATE

AXIS | CENTRAL & OUTER EAST

POPULATION DEMOGRAPHICS The Whitehorse and Monash municipalities remain the population engines of eastern ring belt. Whitehorse is forecast to grow from roughly 183 000 residents in 2024 to 216 000 by 2041, a 21 percent uplift driven by high-rise projects around Box Hill Central and medium-density infill in Blackburn and Nunawading.

Further out, household formation is steady rather than explosive. The City of Maroondah, which covers predominantly covers Ringwood, Croydon and Mooroolbark isis slated to add 24 800 residents by 2041, a 21 percent increase, with most newcomers housed in elevated-rail precincts and Eastland apartment towers.

Monash adds even more heads, a projected 57 000 extra residents between 2021 and 2041 a 30 percent increase, fuelled by international students clustering at Monash University and dual-income families circling the Chadstone employment hubs.

Manningham, anchored by Doncaster Hill and Bulleen, grows more modestly—16 percent to 145 600 by 2046—because of stricter height controls and limited greenfield land.

Knox, stretching from Bayswater to Rowville, records a similar trajectory of 25 000 additional people between 2021 and 2046, a 15 percent increase. The Westfield Knox expansion and hospital upgrades will attract the health-sector and retail workers into the area to support rental vacancy below 1.5% and support capital value appreciation

35

POPULATION DEMOGRAPHICS

SUBURB

OBRIEN REAL ESTATE

AXIS | CENTRAL & OUTER EAST

36

MEDIAN WEEKLY INCOME

AVG HOUSEHOLD SIZE

AVG BEDROOMS PER DWELLING

ASHWOOD

$1,909

2.5

3

BAYSWATER

$1,598

2.4

3

BLACKBURN

$2,065

2.5

3

BLACKBURN SOUTH

$1,861

2.6

3.2

BORONIA

$1,619

2.4

3

BOX HILL

$1,267

2.2

2.3

BURWOOD

$1,684

2.5

3

CROYDON

$2,121

2.8

3.1

DONCASTER

$1,592

2.4

3.1

OWNERSHIP PERCENTAGE

RENTING PERCENTAGE

TOTAL DWELLINGS

69.10

56.70

3,050

73.30

59.20

5,381

73.20

61.30

6,208

71.60

54

4,458

74.20

58.90

10,211

60

48.30

7,777

66.70

56.90

6,630

67.50

58

4,063

61.20

53.40

11,731

37

POPULATION DEMOGRAPHICS

SUBURB

OBRIEN REAL ESTATE

AXIS | CENTRAL & OUTER EAST

38

MEDIAN WEEKLY INCOME

AVG HOUSEHOLD SIZE

AVG BEDROOMS PER DWELLING

DONVALE

$2,100

2.7

3.5

FERNTREE GULLY

$1,770

2.6

3.2

FOREST HILL

$1,658

2.5

3.1

GLEN WAVERLEY

$1,918

2.8

3.5

LYSTERFIELD

$2,754

3.2

3.9

MITCHAM

$2,030

2.5

3

MOOROOLBARK

$1,994

2.8

3.4

MOUNT WAVERLEY

$2,066

2.7

3.4

NUNAWADING

$1,938

2.6

3

OWNERSHIP PERCENTAGE

RENTING PERCENTAGE

TOTAL DWELLINGS

69.10

59.30

4,728

76.60

59.30

11,068

70.10

60.10

4,533

61.10

60.20

16,537

75.80

64.10

2,169

77.50

67.70

7,032

77.40

59.20

8,632

64.60

64.50

13,873

73.80

64.70

5,080

39

POPULATION DEMOGRAPHICS

SUBURB

OBRIEN REAL ESTATE

AXIS | CENTRAL & OUTER EAST

40

MEDIAN WEEKLY INCOME

AVG HOUSEHOLD SIZE

AVG BEDROOMS PER DWELLING

RINGWOOD

$1,654

2.4

2.8

ROWVILLE

$2,205

2.9

3.6

VERMONT

$2,042

2.8

3.3

VERMONT SOUTH

$1,944

2.8

3.7

WANTIRNA

$1,886

2.8

3.5

WANTIRNA SOUTH

$1,915

2.7

3.5

WHEELERS HILL

$1,818

2.7

3.6

OWNERSHIP PERCENTAGE

RENTING PERCENTAGE

TOTAL DWELLINGS

74.10

57.80

8,696

73.80

66.70

12,074

71.40

66.30

4,086

66.60

62.50

4,443

69.80

65.30

5,287

68.80

62.40

7,895

64.90

59.80

20,652

41

OCCUPANCY SNAPSHOT

SUBURB

OBRIEN REAL ESTATE

AXIS | CENTRAL & OUTER EAST

42

POPULATION

LABOUR FORCE PERCENTAGE

MEDIAN AGE

ASHWOOD

7,154

62.20

39

BAYSWATER

12,262

63

38

BLACKBURN

14,478

64.80

41

BLACKBURN SOUTH

10,939

60.30

42

BORONIA

23,607

63.40

39

BOX HILL

14,353

58

33

BURWOOD

15,147

60.90

34

CROYDON

10,993

57.60

41

DONCASTER

25,020

57.10

40

BACHELOR PERCENTAGE

RENTAL VACANCY RATE

62.20

1.20

26.50

1.40

47

1.30

38.60

1.30

24.70

1.50

39.90

2.00

42.30

1.40

38.80

1.40

43

DEFINITIONS LABOUR FORCE PERCENTAGE: The percentage of people working in the labour industry.

40.80

1.70

BACHELOR PERCENTAGE: The percentage of people with a bachelor’s degree.

OCCUPANCY SNAPSHOT

SUBURB

OBRIEN REAL ESTATE

AXIS | CENTRAL & OUTER EAST

44

POPULATION

LABOUR FORCE PERCENTAGE

MEDIAN AGE

DONVALE

12,644

59.30

45

FERNTREE GULLY

27,398

64.80

40

FOREST HILL

10,780

57.70

42

GLEN WAVERLEY

42,642

57.60

40

LYSTERFIELD

6,681

72.70

41

MITCHAM

16,795

67.40

39

MOOROOLBARK

23,059

67.40

37

MOUNT WAVERLEY

35,340

61.30

40

NUNAWADING

12,413

63.20

39

BACHELOR PERCENTAGE

RENTAL VACANCY RATE

37.40

1.10

23.60

1.60

37.30

1.20

40

1.50

41

1.60

42

1.20

21.40

1.50

44.30

1.30

39.90

1.20

45

OCCUPANCY SNAPSHOT

SUBURB

OBRIEN REAL ESTATE

AXIS | CENTRAL & OUTER EAST

46

POPULATION

LABOUR FORCE PERCENTAGE

MEDIAN AGE

RINGWOOD

19,144

63.90

38

ROWVILLE

33,571

68

41

VERMONT

10,993

63.10

40

VERMONT SOUTH

11,954

56

46

WANTIRNA

14,237

60.80

41

WANTIRNA SOUTH

20,754

61.60

42

WHEELERS HILL

20,652

53.40

48

BACHELOR PERCENTAGE

RENTAL VACANCY RATE

33.60

1.40

28.60

1.70

39.40

1.10

38.30

1.10

32

1.50

36

1.50

36.20

1.50

47

ECONOMIC & EMPLOYMENT GROWTH The Victorian Government’s Activity Centre Program, aims to build 300,000 new homes within the eventual 60 activity centres, of which only 10 have so far been released these being: Preston (High Street), Broadmeadows, Niddrie (Keilor Road), North Essendon, Moorabbin, RIngwood, Frankston, Epping, Camberwell Junction and Chadstone Activity Centre.

The activity centres aims for housing to be well-located by allowing the maximise use of existing infrastructure, services, jobs, green space and public transport. The idea for residents in living in these new zones will make day-to-day life easier, more convenient, and more sustainable. Following strong community feedback on the first 10 activity centres in 2024, Victorians valued strong transport connections. Planning for the next 25 activity centres is underway and will be released in later in 2025.

48

OBRIEN REAL ESTATE

AXIS | CENTRAL & OUTER EAST

ASHWOOD PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

•

•

•

Markham Ave social-housing renewal: 250 dwellings + 70 ongoing facilities roles

Community services, neighbourhood retail

Markham Community Hub, upgraded Gardiners Creek trail

BAYSWATER PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

•

•

•

Bayswater Station TOD & Mountain Hwy industrial estate facelift: 600 jobs

Light manufacturing, neighbourhood services

Perri Projects mixed-use tower; Hawthorn Brewing Co relocation

PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

•

•

•

Blackburn Sq medical-office wing (180 jobs); Eastern Fwy smart-road ops centre (80 roles)

Health services, ITS

Eastern Fwy Operations Hub; Epworth day-surgery suites

ECONOMIC & EMPLOYMENT GROWTH

BLACKBURN

BLACKBURN SOUTH PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

•

•

•

Orchard Grove retail strip revamp adds 120 jobs

Cafe culture, allied health

Orchard Grove Medical & Wellness Centre

49

BORONIA PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

•

•

•

Boronia Renewal Plan: town square + 10-storey mixed-use resulting in 2,500 construction / 2 000 ongoing roles (2030)

Retail, education, small logistics

Boronia Hub, Swinburne TAFE satellite campus

BOX HILL PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

•

•

•

• •

$2 bn Box Hill Central air-rights project: 3,500 construction 6 000 ongoing office/retail jobs SRL East station precinct another 11,000 longer-term roles

Health & research, professional services, edu-tech

• •

Epworth Eastern expansion ATO tower SRL East construction HQ

BURWOOD PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

•

•

• •

Deakin Uni Health-Innovation precinct Stage 2: 900 academic & biotech roles

Med-tech, tertiary education

Deakin DHeal Hub Burwood Brickworks ecovillage retail

CROYDON

50

PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

•

•

• •

Elevated station & town-square project: 450 construction, 600 retail/office jobs

Hospitality, community health

DONCASTER PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

•

•

•

North East Link Doncaster Busway & mall hotel: 4 000 construction, 2,200 permanent

Retail HQs, transport, hospitality

AXIS | CENTRAL & OUTER EAST

•

Westfield Doncaster hotel & office tower Kinetic Busway depot

DONVALE PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

•

•

•

Mullum Mullum sports precinct add-on: 150 jobs

Sports & rec, aged care

•

OBRIEN REAL ESTATE

Croydon Civic Hub Tarralla Creek linear-park tourism

Donvale Christian College expansion Lifeview aged-care village

ECONOMIC & EMPLOYMENT GROWTH

FIG 1

51

FIG 2

FIG 3 DEVELOPMENTS IN CENTRAL & OUTER EAST MELBOURNE FIG 1: Artist impression of Ringwood Activity Centre car park FIG 2: New Queen Elizabeth II Hospital in Ringwood East/Maroondah FIG 3: Artist Impression of Bulleen Sports Oval Redevelopment

FIG 4

52

AXIS | CENTRAL & OUTER EAST

FIG 5

OBRIEN REAL ESTATE

FIG 6 DEVELOPMENTS IN CENTRAL & OUTER EAST MELBOURNE FIG 4: Bore work for the North East link FIG 5: Mooroolbark Train Station FIG 6: Monash SRL Under Ground Train Station

PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

•

•

• •

Quarry Park lakefront estate + Knox Hospital wing: 1,800 jobs

Health, medium-density construction

Knox Private Day Surgery Quarry Park Town-Centre

ECONOMIC & EMPLOYMENT GROWTH

FERNTREE GULLY

FOREST HILL PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

•

•

•

Brentford Square upgrade & co-working lofts: 300 jobs

Neighbourhood retail, flex-office

Worksmith Co-Lab Forest Hill

53

GLEN WAVERLEY PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

•

•

•

Kingsway BTR tower & SRL launch site: 20,000 construction, 5,500 ongoing roles (by 2035)

Tech offices, build-to-rent, hospitality

•

Kingsway Build-to-Rent (Greystar) SRL East tunnelling HQ

LYSTERFIELD PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

•

•

•

Wellington Rd duplication + MTB park cafe: 320 roles

Outdoor tourism, trades

Lysterfield Park Adventure Hub

MITCHAM PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

•

•

•

Britannia Mall revitalisation & sky-rail retail pods: 450 jobs

Specialty food, boutique retail

Mitcham Linear-Park Pods; Work-in-Nature coworking

MOOROOLBARK PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

•

•

•

Mooroolbark Hub TOD (600 dwellings) 1,600 jobs

Town-centre retail, education

Yarra Ranges Civic Services Hub

54

OBRIEN REAL ESTATE

AXIS | CENTRAL & OUTER EAST

MOUNT WAVERLEY PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

•

•

•

Village alfresco revamp + Monash Freeway ITS centre: 500 jobs

ITS, dining

VicRoads East ITS Control; Mount Waverley Food Lane

NUNAWADING PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

•

•

•

Sky-rail viaduct retail & sports-court project: 650 roles

Recreation, boutique F&B

Nunawading Sports & Wellness Precinct

ECONOMIC & EMPLOYMENT GROWTH

FIG 7

55

FIG 8

FIG 9 DEVELOPMENTS IN CENTRAL & OUTER EAST MELBOURNE FIG 7: Glen Waverley SRL Train Station FIG 8: Overall outline map of all SRL locations FIG 9: Artist impression aerial of North-East Link Tunnel portal and Bulleen Road

FIG 10

56

AXIS | CENTRAL & OUTER EAST

FIG 11

OBRIEN REAL ESTATE

FIG 12 DEVELOPMENTS IN CENTRAL & OUTER EAST MELBOURNE FIG 10: Box Hill Station SRL East FIG 11: Airport Train Station FIG 12: Burwood Station SRL

PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

•

•

•

Eastland Stage 6 lifestyle wing, Costco + 10-storey office: 3 800 jobs

Corporate services, retail, logistics

QIC Eastland Hotel, Costco Ringwood DC

ECONOMIC & EMPLOYMENT GROWTH

RINGWOOD

ROWVILLE PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

•

•

•

Knox Private Hospital cardio & oncology wing: 350 health roles; Rowville Rail business-case offices (120 roles)

Health, engineering consultancies

Knox Private expansion; Rail planning office

57

VERMONT PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

•

•

•

Vermont SC performing-arts centre 120 jobs

Education, arts

Vermont SC PAC; EastLink Trail hospitality kiosks

VERMONT SOUTH PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

•

•

•

Burwood Hwy tram-terminus TOD (500 apts) 1 200 construction, 400 ongoing

Build-to-rent, health suites

Vermont South Tram-Hub Village

WANTIRNA PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

•

•

•

$140 m Knox Private upgrade + Wantirna Health ageing-well precinct: 600 medical & allied-health jobs

Health & wellness

Knox Private ICU tower; Wantirna Ageing-Well Hub

WANTIRNA SOUTH PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

•

•

•

Westfield Knox $355 m Stage 2 & Swinburne Trades Hub: 2 500 jobs

Retail, vocational training

Knox Dining & Entertainment wing; Swinburne Tech Hub

58

OBRIEN REAL ESTATE

AXIS | CENTRAL & OUTER EAST

WHEELERS HILL PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

•

•

•

Monash Gallery of Art precinct renewal & Jells Park boardwalk: 280 jobs

Arts tourism, café culture

MGA Sculpture Garden; Jells Park Lakeside Café

ECONOMIC & EMPLOYMENT GROWTH

FIG 13

59

FIG 14

FIG 15 DEVELOPMENTS IN CENTRAL & OUTER EAST MELBOURNE FIG 13: Box Hill Station as part of SRL East FIG 14: Artist impression of North-East Trail over Yarra Link green bridge FIG 15: Artist impression of inside North-East Link tunnel

GOVERNMENT POLICY PLANNING The Labor government’s housing promises from the recent 2025 federal election, focusing on how they plan to support Australians into housing, assist first-home buyers, address deposit challenges, support renters, enhance affordability, and boost home construction.

OBRIEN REAL ESTATE

AXIS | CENTRAL & OUTER EAST

60

SUPPORT FOR FIRST HOME BUYERS Deposit Scheme (Expanded First Home Guarantee) Labor has expanded the existing First Home Guarantee scheme, allowing all first-home buyers to purchase a home with just a 5% deposit without paying Lenders Mortgage Insurance (LMI). Previously, this scheme had income and participant caps, but the expansion removes these limitations, making it accessible to a broader range of buyers. For example, a Sydneysider could buy a $1 million property with a $50,000 deposit, saving up to $20,000 in LMI costs.

Help to Buy Shared Equity Scheme This initiative enables eligible buyers to copurchase a home with the government, which can contribute up to 40% of the purchase price for new homes (30% for existing homes). This reduces the amount buyers need to borrow, lowering monthly repayments and making homeownership more attainable. Help to Buy is expected to open for applications later this year (following registration of the program directions, passage of state legislation, and implementation

by Housing Australia). Purchase price cap increasing to 950k (up from $800k) for Metro Melbourne and 650k for regional (unchanged).

Construction of 100,000 Homes for FirstHome Buyers Labor has committed $10 billion to build up to 100,000 homes exclusively for first-home buyers. These homes will be constructed in partnership with states, developers, and community housing providers, with construction commencing in 2026-27 and occupancy beginning the following financial year.

Housing Australia Future Fund (HAFF) The HAFF is a $10 billion investment fund aimed at building 30,000 new social and affordable homes over five years. The fund’s returns are used to finance the construction of these homes, addressing the housing supply shortage and improving affordability.

SUPPORT FOR RENTERS

BROADER HOUSING SUPPLY INITIATIVES

Commonwealth Rent Assistance (CRA) Labor plans to increase the CRA payments to provide additional support to low-income renters, helping to alleviate rental stress and improve housing affordability.

National Housing Accord Labor has set a target to build 1.2 million new homes by mid-2029 through the National Housing Accord. This ambitious plan involves collaboration with state governments and the private sector to accelerate housing construction and address the national housing shortage.

One key reason new home construction hasn’t progressed as quickly as the government anticipated is that taxes make up 42% of the total cost of building a new home.

Build-to-Rent Incentives To boost the supply of rental properties, Labor has introduced tax incentives for developers to construct build-to-rent housing. This initiative aims to deliver approximately 80,000 additional rental units over a decade, increasing rental availability and stabilising prices.

ADDITIONAL MEASURES Ban on Foreign Purchases of Existing Homes To prioritise Australian buyers and reduce competition in the housing market, Labor has implemented a two-year ban on foreign investors purchasing existing residential properties.

61

MARKET CYCLE Melbourne’s central-east and outereast corridor is entering a new phase: not the rapid green-field surge seen in the south-east, but an in-fill “second wind” powered by major transport and health projects.

Median house prices in the mature cores of Glen Waverley, Box Hill and Mount Waverley already trade at, or above, the metropolitan benchmark, yet suburbs on the next ring — Bayswater, Boronia, Croydon and Mooroolbark—remain 20 to 25 percent cheaper than inner-east equivalents while sharing the same upgraded rail and freeway links.

OBRIEN REAL ESTATE

AXIS | CENTRAL & OUTER EAST

62

Population forecasts show Whitehorse, Monash, Maroondah, Manningham and Knox together adding almost 130 000

residents by 2046, but with virtually no greenfield land left. That scarcity, combined with vacancy rates sitting near 1.4 percent, underpins resilient rents and low volatility. Investors who lock in family sized homes near future Suburban Rail Loop, North East Link and hospital hubs can expect steady yields around 3 percent and capital growth driven by a tight supply pipeline and rising white collar job density— hallmarks of the next upswing in Melbourne’s eastern arc.

Nationally across the 6 major capital cities, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide have had a 5-year boom in real estate from 2020 to today, the chart at right shows you the generational opportunity that exists in Melbourne with only a 2.8% increase.

MARKET CYCLE

MAY 2020 T0 MAY 2025 (POST COVID) 5 YEAR GROWTH DATA CITY

MAY 2020

MAY 2025

5 YR GROWTH

SYDNEY

$885,159

$1,203,395

+35.9%

MELBOURNE

$770,000

$791,303

+2.8%

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BRISBANE

$506,553

$917,992

+81.3%

ADELAIDE

$475,000

$829,695

+74.6%

PERTH

$465,291

$813,810

+74.9%

HOBART

$519,739

$673,858

+29.7%

*Note: figures are approximate, based on available data.

MAY 2015 TO MAY 2020 (PRE COVID) Winding the clock back 5 years prior to Covid the numbers show a different growth pattern particularly for Melbourne, where it has enjoyed the title of the 3rd best performing capital city with 26.2% growth, a stark contrast to the 2.8%, 5 years later. Hobart experienced the highest growth over the five-year period, with a significant increase of 55.1% in median dwelling prices.

10 YEAR GROWTH DATA CITY

OBRIEN REAL ESTATE

AXIS | CENTRAL & OUTER EAST

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MAY 2015

MAY 2020

5 YR GROWTH

SYDNEY

$690,000

$885,159

+28.3%

MELBOURNE

$610,000

$770,000

+26.2%

BRISBANE

$490,000

$506,553

+3.4%

ADELAIDE

$405,000

$475,000

+17.3%

PERTH

$513,000

$465,291

-9.3%

HOBART

$335,000

$519,739

+55.1%

*Note: May 2015 figures are approximate, based on available data.

MARKET CYCLE

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MARKET CYCLE

MAY 2015 TO MAY 2025 The table below paints the stories of growth over the last 10 years. Adelaide and Hobart was highest growth over the past decade, with increases of 104.9% and 101.2%, respectively. This growth is attributed to factors such as affordability, lifestyle appeal, and increased interstate migration. Brisbane has also seen significant growth of 81.3%, driven by strong population growth and infrastructure development. Perth’s growth of 58.7% reflects a recovery from earlier market downturns, supported by the mining sector and increased demand.

Sydney and Melbourne have experienced more moderate growth of 48.6% and 29.7%, respectively, due to higher base prices and affordability constraints.

10 YEAR GROWTH DATA CITY

MAY 2015

MAY 2025

10 YR GROWTH

SYDNEY

$810,000

$1,203,395

+48.6%

MELBOURNE

$610,000

$791,303

+29.7%

BRISBANE

$506,553

$917,992

+81.3%

ADELAIDE

$405,000

$829,695

+104.9%

PERTH

$513,000

$813,810

+58.7%

HOBART

$335,000

$673,858

+101.2%

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*Note: May 2015 figures are approximate, based on available data.

MAY 2023 TO MAY 2025 Judging by the table below, the 2 year trend across the 6 capital cities paints a renewal of growth for all states a part from Melbourne. Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth have experienced the highest growth over the past two years, each with approximately 10% increases in median dwelling values.

Sydney has seen moderate growth of 4.6%, while Hobart’s growth has been more subdued at 2.1%.

Melbourne is the only capital city to record a decline in median dwelling values over the two-year period, with a decrease of 2.3%.

2 YEAR GROWTH DATA CITY

AXIS | CENTRAL & OUTER EAST

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MAY 2023

MAY 2025

2 YR GROWTH

SYDNEY

$1,150,000

$1,203,395

+4.6%

MELBOURNE

$810,000

$791,303

-2.3%

BRISBANE

$834,000

$917,992

+10.1%

ADELAIDE

$754,000

$829,695

+10.0%

PERTH

$740,000

$813,810

+10.0%

HOBART

$660,000

$673,858

-2.1%

OBRIEN REAL ESTATE

*Note: Somes figures are approximate, based on available data.

MARKET CYCLE

IN

SUMMARY

Melbourne’s comparatively modest property growth over the past decade and particularly the last 5 and 2 years can be attributed to a range of factors—many of which extend beyond government policy. At the heart of it is what can best be described as a COVID-19 hangover—a unique circumstance that no other capital city faced to the same extent.

While government initiatives like the 10-year COVID Land Tax levy and the introduction of stricter regulations for landlords (rental providers) have certainly played a role, they are only part of the story.

Victoria also faces significant state debt, yet it is actively investing in its future through transformative infrastructure programs such as the Big Build. When it comes to tenancy reforms, Victoria has led the nation, and while some may criticise the extent of these changes, other states are expected to follow suit—if not fully, then in part.

Another contributing factor to Melbourne’s slower growth may lie in the lack of new support mechanisms for first-home buyers.

The stamp duty concessions have remained unchanged since 2017. It still offers a full exemption up to $600,000 and a partial concession up to $750,000—providing no adjustment for inflation or market movement since 2017.

Taxation on investment properties also remains a point of contention. The recently passed Fire Services Levy—as of May 2025—now places a heavier financial burden on landlords compared to owneroccupiers, with the government anticipating an additional $2 billion in revenue.

But within this uncertainty lies opportunity.

As Warren Buffett famously said, “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” For astute investors, Melbourne’s market conditions may represent precisely that kind of moment.

To summarise, Melbourne landlords have had 2 varied reactions to the Government policy. The first being “it’s all too hard” and “we’re not playing anymore”. The second being, “we’re in it for the long run”.

A recent study conducted over two decades puts these mindsets into perspective, approximately one in five investment properties are sold within the first year of ownership, while 28 per cent are held for more than 20 years. The motto should always be “buy well and never sell”.

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SOURCES & DISCLAIMER

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Data sources: realestate.com.au Forecast.id SQM Research Victorian Government Big Build project announcements.

Census 2021 Victorian Planning Authority Chat GPT Visit Melbourne The information contained in the Axis Guide is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice.

OBRIEN REAL ESTATE

AXIS | CENTRAL & OUTER EAST

While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the information provided. Readers are encouraged to seek independent professional advice before making any property or financial decisions.

OBrien Real Estate disclaims all liability for any loss or damage arising from reliance on the information contained in this guide.

WORDS & DATA BY JASON MUDFORD DESIGN & CREATIVE BY OLIVIA WARDEN

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OUR PARTNERS IN PROPERTY

Blank Financial Mortgage Broker 1800 1 BLANK

Victorian Statewide Conveyancing Professional conveyancing services 03 8790 5488 info@victorianstatewide.com.au

TDA Tax Depreciation Tax Depreciation Specialists 1300 417 317

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