The Meier Report May 2024

Meier Report

A VERY ODD MARKET

The

NEW TO MARKET— LOFT CONDO IN THE WEST VILLAGE

We have several strong indicators in the market that suggest we are entering a downward cycle.

One of these indicators is interest rates. After a brief moment of seeing interest rates drop slightly in the first quarter of this year, we are now experiencing interest rates reaching a 20 year high.

Simultaneously, the inventory is increasing. We currently have more homes on the market than we did in March, with an overall inventory increase of about 18% since December of last year. While these inventory increases are not alarming or anywhere near historical highs, it is a known fact that when inventory rises, prices tend to fall shortly after.

Apart from the typical indicators, we are also in an election year. In election years, we often witness a significant drop in sales volume. Particularly in years with high drama and extensive press coverage, the sales volume decrease is even more pronounced.

Despite this data, we are currently observing a contradictory trend. For the first time since July 2022, there have been over 1000 signed sales contracts in Manhattan in a single month. Additionally, there has been a notable increase in overall traffic, particularly in terms of property viewings and buyer inquiries. In discussions with mortgage professionals, they have reported an increase in mortgage applications and preapprovals compared to the past 18 months.

It remains unclear why the sales market is rallying when all indicators point towards a softening. We will wait and see in the coming months whether this surge in buyer activity continues or intensifies, with new indicators and reasons being revealed to us. It is possible that this is simply a bullish trend in a bear market, with the signed contract numbers eventually stabilizing somewhere between 600 and 800 per month, as seen throughout 2023.

The straightforward account of today’s market. We highlight current market action as well as trends and risk factors that keep you informed. Whether translated into great investments or gaining insight on economic characteristics before you buy, this is the up-to-date news you need for assessing today’s Real Estate Market.

1 BEDROOMS

384 Units +17.8% 2 BEDROOMS

322 Units +1.6%

3+ BEDROOMS

209 Units -6.3%

Contracts Signed/Accepted Offer Over the Past 12 Months

These numbers are offers that were accepted and contracts that were signed this month. This represents an accurate window into the Manhattan Real Estate Market.

SUPPLY

Current residential co-op, condos, and townhouses currently for sale in Manhattan.

MARKET VOTALITY

Available sales vs. number of units in contract at a given time. If there are 1,000 active listings and 1,000 listings in contract, the Volatility rate is 1. In a balanced market, the number will be 1-1.5.

ABSORPTION RATE

The rate of which available homes are sold in a specific real estate market during a given time period. A balanced market will show a number between 3 and 6.

MONTHLY CLOSINGS

The amount of residential closings in Manhattan each month.

Apple Christie-Wallace

Brian Meier

Krisstopher Valcin

Bruce Goveia

John Guerrero

Corey Mittenthal

Doron Berenholtz

Miosity Aracena

Cindy Sanxhaku

Bradley Rhyins

Jae Gardner

Corinne Newton