IISS Shangri La Dialogue 2024

THE INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES 21ST ASIA SECURITY SUMMIT SINGAPORE, 31 MAY–2 JUNE 2024

IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

THE INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES 21ST ASIA SECURITY SUMMIT SINGAPORE, 31 MAY–2 JUNE 2024

IISS Shangri-La Dialogue The International Institute for Strategic Studies Arundel House | 6 Temple Place | London | wc2r 2pg | UK www.iiss.org

© December 2024 The International Institute for Strategic Studies Executive Chairman: Sir John Chipman KCMG

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Director-General and Chief Executive: Dr Bastian Giegerich

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Contents Foreword . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Chapter 1 Keynote address . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Chapter 2 First plenary session United States’ strategic partnerships in the Indo-Pacific . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Chapter 3 Second plenary session Enhancing crisis management amid rising competition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Chapter 4 Third plenary session Building cooperative security in the Asia-Pacific . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Chapter 5 Special address . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 Chapter 6 Fourth plenary session Cross-regional security order challenges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Chapter 7 Simultaneous special sessions Session 1 Deterrence and reassurance in the Asia-Pacific . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 Session 2 Defence cooperation and small state security . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 Session 3 Myanmar: opportunities for diplomacy amid different visions for peace . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 Session 4 Maritime law enforcement and confidence-building . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 Session 5 AI, cyber defence and future warfare . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 Session 6 Coordinating global humanitarian operations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52 Chapter 8 Reception and dinner hosted by the president . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 Chapter 9 Fifth plenary session China’s approach to global security . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 Chapter 10 Sixth plenary session Connecting Indian Ocean and Pacific security . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 Chapter 11 Seventh plenary session Re-imagining solutions for global peace and regional stability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67 Chapter 12 The Southeast Asian Young Leaders’ Programme . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 Appendices I. Selected digital engagement and media coverage of the 2024 IISS Shangri-La Dialogue . . . . . . . 77 II. Selected IISS publications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90

FOREWORD

The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS)

plenary address on the need for new solutions for global

held its 21st annual Shangri-La Dialogue (SLD) in

security. We welcomed 581 delegates, including 32 gov-

Singapore from 31 May to 2 June 2024. We are pleased

ernment ministers, 25 chiefs of defence and five national

to present this report detailing the Dialogue’s on-the-

security advisers. The Dialogue was attended by 50

record proceedings, including all plenary and special

national delegations and three international organisa-

sessions, as well as the discussions of the Southeast

tions. Hundreds of government meetings took place on

Asian Young Leaders’ Programme (SEAYLP).

the sidelines of the Dialogue, of which the IISS facilitated

For over two decades, the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

over 90. We also welcomed 40 SEAYLP delegates from

has offered a platform for dialogue amongst defence

21 countries in the Asia-Pacific and beyond who actively

ministers and officials, senior military officials and

engaged in the Dialogue’s public sessions and organised

other distinguished delegates from national security

discussions with senior officials.

establishments on the pressing issues in the Asia-

As ever, the IISS is grateful to the Singapore govern-

Pacific. These public engagements are complemented

ment for its support for the SLD process. This includes

by defence diplomacy in action through the wealth of

the annual IISS Shangri-La Dialogue Sherpa Meeting,

private bilateral and multilateral defence meetings that

which will next convene from 19 to 21 January 2025.

take place at the Dialogue and in many cases advance

We would like to thank the following lead com-

and prepare concrete initiatives of these governments.

mercial sponsors for their financial support for the

Intensifying great-power competition, the use of

Dialogue: Airbus, BAE Systems, Boeing, Space &

tactics below the threshold of armed conflict, and the

Security, Lockheed Martin, RTX and Saab. We also

interlinkages of conflict and security across regions

extend thanks to principal sponsors Amazon Web

shaped the strategic environment over the past year.

Services,

In his keynote address, President Ferdinand R. Marcos

Northrop Grumman, Oracle, Palantir and Rolls Royce,

Jr of the Philippines underscored the enduring impor-

as well as prime sponsors Accenture, Anduril and

tance of international law as the cornerstone of equality

EDGE Group and main sponsors Asahi Shimbun, Maxar

amongst nations in this turbulent juncture in history.

Intelligence, Rohde & Schwarz and ST Engineering.

In addition to seven plenary sessions, this year’s

The Shangri-La Hotel generously sponsored the

Dialogue included six live-streamed special sessions,

Babcock

International

Group,

Google,

Dialogue’s opening dinner.

featuring defence ministers and senior military leaders,

The IISS looks forward to further developing these

which spanned an array of focused deliberations on

partnerships, and making new ones, with the shared

topics ranging from artificial intelligence, cyber defence

aspiration of advancing regional security dialogue and

and future warfare to deterrence and reassurance in

cooperation through the Shangri-La Dialogue process.

the Asia-Pacific. Reflecting the region’s contemporary

We look forward to welcoming delegates to Singapore

maritime challenges, the Dialogue included for the

for the 22nd IISS Shangri-La Dialogue from 30 May to

first time a dedicated special session on maritime law

1 June 2025.

enforcement, featuring the heads of coast guards and the maritime security agencies of four nations.

Dr Bastian Giegerich,

The 2024 Dialogue received four heads of state from

IISS Director-General and Chief Executive

within and outside the region. Ukraine’s President

Veerle Nouwens,

Volodymyr Zelenskyy delivered a powerful in-person

IISS–Asia Executive Director



5

INTRODUCTION

The 21st IISS Shangri-La Dialogue convened amidst

from the most important countries in the Asia-Pacific

a continued deterioration of the security situation in

and beyond. Moreover, it is unique in the way that it

Europe and the Middle East and apprehension that geo-

brings experts, industry and media into the room for

political rivalry could spark conflict in the Asia-Pacific

discussions in plenary and special sessions.

as well. An impassioned keynote address opening the

As in years past, the IISS worked to make sure that

summit by the president of the Philippines, Ferdinand

the Dialogue remained an open and inclusive forum

R. Marcos Jr, highlighted the risks. Marcos warned

for regional discussion, providing a useful platform

that the rules-based order in Asia required reaffirma-

for participants regardless of regional or geopolitical

tion by the countries of the region rather than revision

positions. The Dialogue served as a mechanism for

– and outlined the Philippine efforts in that regard. Yet

transparency, inviting governments to outline their

in response to questions from delegates, the president

defence policies and highlight immediate security

warned about the risks of crossing the Philippines’ red

concerns. The SLD also maintained its role as a forum

lines. The death of a Filipino citizen by a ‘wilful act’, he

where defence leaders could develop new channels of

said, could be considered an ‘act of war’.

communication and cooperation through bilateral and

Russia’s illegal war of aggression in Ukraine took

other meetings, including a marked increase in the

centre stage when Ukrainian President Volodymyr

number of minilateral gatherings on the sidelines of

Zelenskyy addressed the seventh plenary session. His

the Dialogue. Notably, American and Chinese defence

arrival at the Shangri-La Hotel, where he was wel-

ministers met in person for the first time in 18 months.

comed by IISS Director-General and Chief Executive

This year’s Dialogue featured a special address

Dr Bastian Giegerich, came two years after he delivered

by Indonesian president-elect and Defence Minister

a special address to the 19th Dialogue by video from

General (Retd) Prabowo Subianto. His speech took

Kyiv. His appearance showed the enduring relevance

place in addition to the traditional keynote address

of the Shangri-La Dialogue as a forum for discussion

and seven themed plenary sessions, which provided

of Asia’s role in the world’s most pressing security

defence ministers the opportunity to speak to fellow

challenges. On his second visit to Asia since Russia’s

security decision-makers as well as select analysts,

full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022,

business leaders and journalists. As in 2023, the IISS

Zelenskyy made the case for Ukraine’s importance

also held a series of six special sessions, where del-

to the Asia-Pacific, and he argued for Asian countries

egates met in a roundtable format to discuss specific

to participate in a peace summit that took place in

issues of pressing concern in greater depth. Finally,

Switzerland later in June.

the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue Southeast Asian Young Leaders’ Programme convened for the seventh time, and the 40 young leaders from around the region

AN EXPANDED AGENDA

played a full part in the Dialogue itself.

The Shangri-La Dialogue remains the only annual meet-

While the IISS conventionally does not set an

ing to bring together defence ministers, chiefs of defence

overarching theme for the summit, several themes

forces and leaders of defence civil-service organisations

emerged from speeches and discussions. Marcos

Introduction

7

(From left) Maj. Gen. Salman Al-Harbi, Undersecretary of the Ministry of Defense for Strategic Affairs, Saudi Arabia; Heidi Grant, former director of the Defense Security Cooperation Agency, US; Dr Charles Woodburn, Group Chief Executive Officer of BAE Systems, UK

(From left) Judith Collins, Minister of Defence, New Zealand; Pio Tikoduadua, Minister for Home Affairs and Immigration, Fiji; Heng Chee How, Senior Minister of State for Defence, Singapore

discussed tensions between the Philippines and

concern over the integrity

China over Second Thomas Shoal in the South China

international order. Some, like Marcos, sought to rally

Sea obliquely in his keynote address, and then more

leaders in attendance to defend it. Others questioned

directly during the question-and-answer session.

its legitimacy given suggested inconsistencies in the

The following morning, United States Secretary of

international response to crises in Gaza, Myanmar

Defense Lloyd J. Austin III was asked whether he

and even New Caledonia. Delegates from countries

also held that a wilful act which resulted in the death

of the Global South asked speakers whether the West

of a Filipino citizen would trigger the United States’

had not engaged in a double standard, upholding the

obligations to the Philippines under their 1951

rules-based order in Ukraine while failing to do so in

Mutual Defense Treaty. Although Austin declined

Gaza amid Israel’s war against Hamas.

of the rules-based

to answer the question, concerns that an incident in

The Dialogue’s special sessions covered a range

the South China Sea could escalate into great-power

of additional subjects, including how to fine-tune

conflict between the US and China pervaded conver-

strategies of deterrence and reassurance; defence

sations throughout the remainder of the Dialogue.

cooperation and small-state security; opportunities

Another flashpoint which received considerable

for diplomacy in the Myanmar conflict; maritime law

attention was the Taiwan Strait. Chinese Minister

enforcement and confidence-building measures; the

of National Defense Admiral Dong Jun focused on

future of warfare amid technological change including

Taiwan in his response to questions from the floor, and

advances in artificial intelligence; and the challenges

like his predecessors used strong language against

of coordinating global humanitarian operations.

those in Taiwan he alleged were seeking independence and those outside Taiwan he said were urging them on. Many of his counterparts urged both sides to act

ENHANCED PARTICIPATION

with restraint and seek a diplomatic solution, with

The 21st SLD featured the highest-level slate of speak-

Singapore Defence Minister Dr Ng Eng Hen warn-

ers in the Dialogue’s history. While there were 571

ing that neither Asia nor the world could withstand ‘a

delegates in 2023, there were 581 this year. As in prior

third geopolitical shock’.

years, more than half were senior officials and officers

Another theme, raised by both speakers from

from 50 participating governments and three inter-

the rostrum and delegates from the floor, revealed

governmental organisations. These included senior

8

The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

officials from many countries around the Asia-Pacific

Institute’s assistance. Some, such as that between

traditionally represented at the Dialogue – but also

Austin and Admiral Dong, will have an appreciable

from a growing number of governments in Europe

effect on the international relations of the region.

and the Middle East, which recognise the weight that

Others, such as that between General Prabowo

Asian positions carry on issues of concern to them.

and Dr Ramos-Horta show the value of diplomacy

Although the Dialogue is traditionally a forum for

between senior leaders. The two, General Prabowo

defence ministers, the inclusion of multiple heads of

told delegates, ‘were walking hand in hand’ the

state or government is a recent evolution of the format.

previous day, an unthinkable outcome when Timor

The appearance at this year’s Dialogue, in addition

was fighting for its independence from Indonesia a

to Marcos and Zelenskyy, of Dr José Ramos-Horta,

quarter-century ago.

President of Timor-Leste, and Prime Minister Ingrida

The Dialogue is primarily a ‘Track One’ meeting,

Šimonytė of Lithuania – not to mention General

where speaking roles are reserved for government offi-

Prabowo and four deputy prime ministers – elevated

cials. But the Dialogue also welcomes many high-level

discussions to the level of national leadership to a

non-government participants each year, including

greater extent than in previous years.

senior business figures, analysts and journalists. The

The Dialogue retained a strong core of participation

SLD played host to more than 300 journalists. The

from defence ministers, with 32 cabinet ministers repre-

gender balance among experts and researchers who

sented, along with 25 chiefs of defence forces, and five

accepted the invitation of the IISS to participate in this

national security advisers. Many were relatively new

year’s Dialogue was approximately 60% male and 40%

in post and attending their first Shangri-La Dialogue,

female, in line with the previous year.

including the following: Admiral Dong; Japanese Defense Minister Kihara Minoru; South Korean Defense Minister Shin Won-sik; Cambodian Deputy Prime

LOOKING AHEAD

Minister and Minister for National Defence General Tea

The IISS looks forward to building upon the success of

Seiha; Thai Defence Minister Sutin Klungsang; New

this year’s Dialogue. We are already moving toward

Zealand Defence Minister Judith Collins; Canadian

organising the 22nd Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore

Minister of National Defence Bill Blair; and Malaysian

from 30 May to 1 June 2025. In preparation, from 19

Defence Minister Dato’ Seri Mohamed Khaled bin

to 21 January 2025, we will hold the 13th Shangri-La

Nordin. This provided a useful opportunity to meet

Dialogue Sherpa Meeting, which will convene in

many counterparts for the first time.

Singapore senior defence officials and military offic-

In total, the IISS facilitated 91 bilateral meetings

ers from participating countries to discuss the region’s

at the Dialogue, but it understands that many more

developing security issues and shape the agenda for

took place on the sidelines of sessions without the

the next Dialogue.

Introduction

9

CHAPTER 1

KEYNOTE ADDRESS Friday 31 May 2024, 20:00 SPEAKER Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr President, Philippines

Keynote address

Philippines President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr began

threatened by weakening international norms; sec-

by setting out the ways that international law under-

ondly, strategic competition between the United States

pins Philippine sovereignty. In particular, the 1982

and China, and its impact on regional states’ secu-

United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea

rity choices and dilemmas; thirdly, the centrality and

(UNCLOS) enshrined the principle of archipelagic

unity of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations

unity that defined the internal waters of states. It

(ASEAN); fourthly, the role of bridge-builders in forg-

also established the extent and limits of states’ mari-

ing multilateral solutions; fifthly, access to the global

time zones. The Philippines, he told the audience, has

commons of sea, space and science for development;

aligned its domestic laws and constitution with its

sixthly, the urgent challenge of climate change; sev-

international legal rights.

enthly, the disruptive and transformative impact of

By contrast, he said, some actors sought to pursue

advanced technologies.

excessive and baseless claims through force, intimida-

To address these challenges, Marcos called for reaf-

tion and deception. Marcos noted the importance of the

firmation rather than revision of the regional order

2016 arbitral award supporting the Philippines’ mari-

based on the agreements that created the UN, ASEAN

time claims in the West Philippine Sea. He underscored

and UNCLOS. These enshrined principles of the

his country’s absolute commitment to protecting its

sovereign equality of states, ASEAN centrality, inter-

sovereignty and upholding the rule of law.

national law and multilateralism, rather than the use

Against the background of growing threats to the

of force, major-power rivalry and spheres of interest.

international rules-based order, Marcos identified

He argued that China’s influence is a permanent secu-

seven issues shaping the Indo-Pacific region: firstly,

rity and economic fact, and that the US is a stabilising

the aspirations of states in the region, which were

presence. Regional stability requires that they manage

Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr, President, Philippines

12

The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

Sir John Chipman KCMG, IISS Executive Chairman

their relationship responsibly, especially in the nuclear

QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS

domain. Nuclear risk-reduction and disarmament, he

Major General Xu Hui, the President of the Inter-

told delegates, are increasingly Asia-Pacific, not just

national College of Defense Studies at the National

Euro-Atlantic, issues.

Defense University of China, asked Marcos to comment

On the most urgent issues affecting economic

on the proposition that recent Philippine actions did

security in the region, Marcos called for maritime dif-

not consider other parties’ comfort levels and jeopard-

ferences in the East China Sea and South China Sea

ised regional peace. Marcos reaffirmed the Philippines’

to be resolved according to international law based

commitment to ASEAN centrality and its principles.

on UNCLOS. Regional stability also requires, in the

He argued these are more relevant than ever, given the

Taiwan Strait, mutual restraint and, on the Korean

complex and interdependent nature of geopolitics. He

peninsula, North Korean fulfilment of its obligations

said there are arguably no purely regional issues now.

under United Nations Security Council resolutions

Demetri Sevastopulo, US–China Correspondent

and to commit to peaceful and constructive dialogue

for the Financial Times, asked whether the killing of a

with South Korea.

Marcos

outlined

the

Philippines’

plans

to

strengthen its alliance with the US, as well as strategic partnerships and multilateral cooperation with a wide range of Indo-Pacific states. The most recent achievement was the adoption, with Japan and the US, of a Joint Vision Statement. Middle powers have a key leadership role to play in transcending geopolitical divisions through multilateral diplomacy.

Marcos drew attention to the Philippines’ activity on a wide range of issues, including climate change, biodiversity, cyberspace, lethal autonomous weapons systems, nuclear non-proliferation and a maritime code of conduct. He said the Philippines would use its role as a trusted partner and bridge-builder during its 2027–28 Security Council term to advance these and other agendas.

Major General Xu Hui, President of the International College of Defense Studies at the National Defense University of China

Keynote address

13

Demetri Sevastopulo, US–China Correspondent, Financial Times

Justin Baquisal, SEAYLP delegate and Resident National Security Analyst, FACTS Asia

Filipino sailor by Chinese coastguard water cannons

Justin Baquisal, a SEAYLP delegate and Resident

would cross a red line. He also asked what actions

National Security Analyst at FACTS Asia, asked what

would cause the Philippines to invoke its Mutual

specific force posture packages were expected in the

Defense Treaty with the US. Marcos replied that the

coming years, and what would follow the modernisa-

death of a Filipino citizen by a wilful act would be

tion programme of the Armed Forces of the Philippines.

‘very, very close’ to an act of war that would ‘almost

Marcos referred to the just-completed Horizon 3 acqui-

certainly’ cross a red line. The Philippines would

sition military programme. The country was now

respond accordingly. Its treaty partners, he said,

finding suppliers for its military requirements. Marcos

hold the same standard when deciding to undertake

emphasised the importance of deterrence through

joint action.

building long-term civil and military capabilities.

14

The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

CHAPTER 2 United States’ strategic partnerships in the Indo-Pacific

FIRST PLENARY SESSION Saturday 1 June 2024, 08:35 SPEAKER Lloyd J. Austin III Secretary of Defense, United States

FIRST PLENARY SESSION

United States’ strategic partnerships in the Indo-Pacific Lloyd J. Austin III, Secretary of Defense, US

US Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III in his

demic disease, nuclear dangers, terrorism and turmoil

opening remarks welcomed the ‘frank discussion’

in the Middle East to Russia’s ‘reckless’ war in Ukraine

that he had at the Dialogue with Admiral Dong Jun,

as well as actions in the Indo-Pacific that erode stabil-

Minister of National Defense for China, in their first

ity. But he countered that a new convergence amongst

face-to-face meeting. Austin reiterated the point he

like-minded states around nearly all aspects of secu-

made at last year’s Shangri-La Dialogue that ‘the right

rity in the Indo-Pacific would produce a ‘stronger,

time for defence leaders to talk is any time and every

more resilient and capable network of partnerships’.

time’. According to Austin, there is no substitute for

This network, Austin told delegates, was unique

direct military-to-military talks between senior leaders

to this region – a set of overlapping and complemen-

and for open lines of communication to avoid misun-

tary initiatives and institutions, rather than a single

derstanding and miscalculations. He said, ‘Dialogue is

alliance, and a move away from the traditional hub-

not a reward. It is a necessity.’ He welcomed future

and-spokes model of American security architecture

talks with the PRC.

in Asia. Austin said the convergence he spoke of is

At the same time, Austin reiterated that American

centred on common principles: respect for sovereignty

engagement with the region is strong and would con-

and international law; the free flow of commerce

tinue because the Indo-Pacific will shape the course

and ideas; freedom of the seas and skies; openness,

of this century. ‘We are all in, and we are not going

transparency and accountability; equal dignity for

anywhere.’ Austin highlighted threats to the global

every person; and the peaceful resolution of disputes

security landscape ranging from climate change, pan-

through dialogue instead of coercion or conflict.

16

The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

Lloyd J. Austin III, Secretary of Defense, US; and Dr Bastian Giegerich, DirectorGeneral and Chief Executive, IISS

Austin pointed out that Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine provides a vision of the world ‘none of

shown by Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam in resolving long-standing maritime-boundary disputes.

us would want’, where the aforementioned principles have been violated. However, he found that the war in Ukraine has provided an impetus to other countries to

QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS

rally together to help the victims of aggression. Austin

Dr Chung Min Lee, IISS Chairman of the Advisory

referenced Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio’s

Council and Trustee, asked about US and South Korean

recent visit to the US, in which he said countries must

relations and the prospect of US support for Korean

resolutely defend and strengthen a free and open

development of nuclear-powered submarines for the

international order based on the rule of law.

ROK Navy. Austin responded that the AUKUS initiative

Austin said that, despite significant destabilising

undertaken with Australia and the UK will assist in pro-

activity in Europe and the Middle East, the Indo-Pacific

viding stability and security in the region. However, this

remains the priority theatre of operations for the US,

is a generational investment and it was ‘highly doubtful’

with significant resources invested in the region over

that the US could take on another initiative of this type

the last three years aimed at ensuring stability. Austin

in the near future. Austin reiterated that South Korea is

raised key examples of defence-industrial integration,

a strong ally for the US, and he highlighted the trilateral

including the development of a Glide Phase Intercep-

partnership emerging with Japan as a positive endeavour.

tor with Japan and progress on the co-production of

Ivan Watson, Senior International Correspond-

fighter-jet engines and armoured vehicles with India.

ent for CNN, asked whether the US would interpret

He also highlighted work with the Philippines to

death at sea as an act of war in the context of ongo-

improve maritime domain awareness in the South

ing tensions between the Philippines and China in

China Sea, as well as cooperation with the Quad

the South China Sea, and whether such a develop-

through the Indo-Pacific Partnership for Maritime

ment would invoke the Mutual Defense Treaty. Austin

Domain Awareness.

said US commitment to the Mutual Defense Treaty is

Austin concluded that strong leadership is needed to sustain progress made so far, commending the

‘ironclad’, and pointed to increasing efforts to develop dialogue to ensure such a scenario does not arise.

trilateral partnership that has emerged between the

Senior Colonel Cao Yanzhong, Research Fellow

US, Japan and South Korea, as well as the leadership

for the Research Department at the Academy of

First plenary session

17

Dr Chung Min Lee, Chairman of the Advisory Council and Trustee, IISS

Ivan Watson, Senior International Correspondent, CNN

Senior Colonel Cao Yanzhong, Research Fellow for the Research Department at the Academy of Military Sciences, China

Professor Dewi Fortuna Anwar, Research Professor at the National Research and Innovation Agency, Indonesia

Military Sciences of China, asked whether the US is

US relationship with China is based on competition but

planning to build a NATO-like alliance system in the

should not become contentious. As such, open dialogue

Asia-Pacific region. Austin responded that rather than

is necessary to address issues. As well as engaging in

creating a NATO-like alliance, the aim is to cooperate

dialogue with China, the US will continue work with

and strengthen relationships with like-minded coun-

other countries in the region, such as the Philippines,

tries with similar values and a common vision of a free

to address their concerns regarding access to their eco-

and open Indo-Pacific.

nomic zones. Austin said conflict with China is neither

Professor Dewi Fortuna Anwar, Research Profes-

imminent nor unavoidable, but that leaders of great-

sor at the National Research and Innovation Agency

power nations need to ensure that everything is done

of Indonesia, asked about the state of US–China rela-

to minimise miscalculation and misunderstandings.

tions, particularly in light of strategic competition

Austin conceded that conversations will at times be dif-

between the two countries. Austin reiterated that the

ficult, but it is crucial to have them.

18

The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

CHAPTER 3 Enhancing crisis management amid rising competition

SECOND PLENARY SESSION Saturday 1 June 2024, 09:30 SPEAKERS Dr José Ramos-Horta, President, Timor-Leste Sébastien Lecornu, Minister of the Armed Forces, France Shin Won-sik, Minister of National Defense, Republic of Korea

SECOND PLENARY SESSION

Enhancing crisis management amid rising competition Dr José Ramos-Horta, President, Timor-Leste

Dr José Ramos-Horta, President of Timor-Leste,

Sébastien Lecornu, French Minister of the Armed

opened the session by noting that, while his own

Forces, noted that France is immediately concerned

country was now at peace, he spoke as a long-time

with crisis management as it prepares to host the

observer of regional and international crises. He noted

Olympic Games, and it is important that nothing be

the importance of the shared crisis of the ‘desecra-

done to hinder existing efforts to manage threats. He

tion of Mother Earth’. In reference to rising tensions

identified three challenges in crisis management. The

in the South China Sea, he said consultations on the

first is the selfishness of narrow nationalisms. The

Code of Conduct should be intensified to help gener-

global security system was designed in a post-con-

ate the trust required to make the sea a ‘zone of peace

flict period when much less was asked of it, given the

and fraternity’. He questioned the consequences of

increase in conflicts and threats. States must not, he

the increased US military presence, drawing compari-

argued, put selfish considerations before preserving,

son with the consequences which he saw of NATO’s

for example, the European political project or inter-

expansion eastwards towards Russia. He noted the

vening in humanitarian disasters such as the recent

tendency of states to overestimate their own capabili-

landslide in Papua New Guinea. This would make the

ties or underestimate those of adversaries. He called

mechanism more sustainable for the future.

for more dialogue and transparency. Where conflicts

Secondly, he argued, selfishness should not

are hot, in particular in Gaza, all parties including

become a strategy. Partnerships should not be aban-

Iran should desist to allow for humanitarian relief and

doned, and France is relying on partnerships in its

reflection on how the conflict can be ended.

counter-terrorism work ahead of the Olympics. It was

20

The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

Sébastien Lecornu, Minister of the Armed Forces, France

criticised for reaching out to Russia after the Crocus

called for universal condemnation of North Korea’s

Hall attack in Moscow, he said, but it decided to share

failure to abide by UN Security Council resolutions.

intelligence with Russia to assist their investigation.

He noted the irresponsibility of the North Korean gov-

Elsewhere, such challenges as illegal fishing and

ernment’s conduct, citing their recent decision to send

organised crime also require partnerships. Technolog-

balloons carrying waste into South Korea in retaliation

ical advances should be shared and states should not

for the balloons carrying food sent by Seoul. The UN,

hinder partnerships developing.

to which South Korea owed its foundation, is critical

Lastly, he told delegates, states should avoid cre-

to security in the region, he said. He added the rules-

ating blocs. France, as a Pacific country, does not see

based international order must be protected from the

blocs as the answer to the region’s problems. Existing

use of force, and he noted his concern that peaceful

multilateral structures should be used to support the

resolution is lately losing out to force.

universal application of international humanitarian law and to avoid double standards. A special responsibility lies with nuclear powers to avoid proliferation,

QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS

and he regretted the lack of effective arms control

Chung Min Lee, IISS Chairman of the Advisory

activity in the region.

Council and Trustee, asked whether the law in South

Shin Won-sik, South Korean Defense Minister,

Korea should be changed to allow it to export weap-

noted the intensification of strategic competition in the

ons to Ukraine, and whether the time had come for

Asia-Pacific. He said North Korea continues to develop

South Korea to consider acquiring its own nuclear

its nuclear capabilities and has conducted 12 missile

capability. Shin said changing the law on exports

launches this year. It poses, he said, an existential threat

would require a national consensus. On the second

to South Korea. Moreover, by prioritising expenditure

question, he said Seoul would not go down that road

on its nuclear programme, the regime is aggravating

because it continues to place its trust in its alliance

the human-rights crisis among its own population.

with the United States and the international nuclear

The minister told delegates that all crises arose from

non-proliferation regime.

dictatorships. Russia is using North Korean weap-

Bonnie Glaser, Managing Director of the Indo-

ons in Ukraine and the funds North Korea receives

Pacific program at the German Marshall Fund, asked

in return will be spent on its nuclear programme. He

what positive measure the panel would like to see

Second plenary session

21

Shin Won-sik, Defense Minister, Republic of Korea

from China to promote denuclearisation. Shin called

panel members for their views on Russia–North Korea

for China to play a more proactive role in denucleari-

nuclear cooperation. Shin noted that 10,000 containers

sation and regretted the absence of any reference to

have been exchanged between the two countries and

denuclearisation in recent ASEAN communiqués. In

North Korea has received food and military technology

reference to a related question, he also noted grave

which could significantly enhance its capabilities. The

concern over tripartite cooperation between China,

US and South Korea are working on countermeasures.

North Korea and Russia and the potential conse-

Darshana Baruah, nonresident scholar with the

quences thereof.

South Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for

Nigel Gould-Davies, IISS Senior Fellow for Russia

International Peace, asked about next steps on New

and Eurasia, asked how North Korea is benefiting

Caledonia given divergent views between France and

from supplying Russia with military equipment and

states in the region. Lecornu said New Caledonia is

ammunition. Maeda Tadashi, Chairman of the Board,

in a post-colonial state. The French government has

Japan Bank for International Cooperation, asked the

honoured its undertakings in the decolonisation plan

Chung Min Lee, Chairman of the Advisory Council and Trustee, IISS

Nigel Gould-Davies, Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia, IISS

22

Bonnie Glaser, Managing Director of the Indo-Pacific program at the German Marshall Fund, US

The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

Maeda Tadashi, Chairman of the Board, Japan Bank for International Cooperation

Darshana Baruah, nonresident scholar with the South Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Lieutenant Colonel Ki Mankhout, SEAYLP delegate, Assistant, Advisor to the Permanent Secretary of State for the Ministry of National Defence, Cambodia

Dr Bich Tran, Postdoctoral Fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy

of the 1990s and held three referenda in which New

of Cambodia, asked whether joining ASEAN would

Caledonia had rejected independence. He said that the

still offer an upside for Timor-Leste. Dr Bich Tran,

violence currently seen in New Caledonia was in part

Postdoctoral Fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of

driven by ‘a young generation that is bored, that has

Public Policy, asked how Timor-Leste would have the

problems with drugs, with alcohol’. They were some-

capacity to attend the many ASEAN meetings con-

times also being manipulated by other countries ‘who

vened each year. Dr Ramos-Horta described ASEAN

are hidden in the world’, he said, and he called for

as one of the most successful multilateral organisa-

these actions to be condemned.

tions in the world. He noted that Timor-Leste has

Lieutenant Colonel Ki Mankhout, a SEAYLP del-

shown the capacity to meet its representative duties in

egate and Assistant and Advisor to the Permanent

other multilateral organisations, and he was confident

Secretary of State for the Ministry of National Defence

that it could do so in ASEAN.

Second plenary session

23

CHAPTER 4 Building cooperative security in the Asia-Pacific

THIRD PLENARY SESSION Saturday 1 June 2024, 11:30 SPEAKERS General Tea Seiha Deputy Prime Minister; Minister of National Defense, Cambodia Richard Marles Deputy Prime Minister; Minister for Defence, Australia Josep Borrell Fontelles High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy; Vice-President of the European Commission, European Union

THIRD PLENARY SESSION

Building cooperative security in the Asia-Pacific General Tea Seiha, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Defence, Cambodia

General Tea Seiha, Deputy Prime Minister and Min-

defence-education collaborations. Additionally, he

ister of National Defence of Cambodia, opened the

highlighted Cambodia’s commitment to UN peace-

session by emphasising the turbulent security land-

keeping, mentioning the deployment of over 9,500

scape in the Asia-Pacific. He highlighted the rise of

peacekeepers since 2006. General Tea Seiha stressed

interdependence, but also unintentional conflicts and

the importance of respecting the sovereignty and inde-

security concerns from traditional geopolitical com-

pendence of smaller states and reaffirmed Cambodia’s

petition to non-traditional threats including climate

commitment to a rules-based international order.

change and human trafficking. He advocated for

Richard Marles, Australia’s Deputy Prime Minis-

cooperative security and multilateralism, particularly

ter and Minister for Defence, discussed the new era

through ASEAN, which Cambodia views as pivotal

of strategic competition reshaping the Indo-Pacific,

in promoting peace, development and prosperity.

stressing the importance of the global rules-based

General Tea Seiha underscored ASEAN’s approach to

order. He highlighted recent conflicts, including

resolving issues, including South China Sea disputes

the Israel–Hamas conflict and Russia’s war against

and the situation in Myanmar, through dialogue and

Ukraine, as significant threats to global stability.

consultation. He recounted Cambodia’s contribu-

Marles called for an immediate humanitarian cease-

tions to ASEAN, including initiatives on pandemic

fire and hostage release in Gaza. He emphasised the

cooperation, support for women peacekeepers, and

need to uphold international law universally and for

26

The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

Richard Marles, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Defence, Australia

collective deterrence to maintain a sustainable bal-

cyber security, maritime security and counter-terrorism.

ance of power in the Indo-Pacific. Australia’s defence

Borrell called for consistency in upholding international

strategy calls for nearly doubling its defence spend-

law and avoiding double standards, particularly in rela-

ing in the coming decade, to reach roughly 2.4% of

tion to Gaza. He emphasised the importance of learning

GDP, and deepening alliances with countries includ-

from Asia’s innovation and working together to build

ing India, Japan and the US. Marles also advocated

a cooperative security framework, thereby enhancing

for strengthening ASEAN’s role and developing new

mutual security and prosperity.

multilateral frameworks to enhance regional security.

He called for clear communication and strategic reassurance to prevent conflicts and ensure a stable and

QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS

prosperous region.

Josep Borrell Fontelles, High Representative for For-

Josh Rogin, opinion columnist at the Washington Post,

eign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice-President of the

asked the panel about China’s support for Russia’s

European Commission of the European Union, under-

armed forces and whether the EU plans to sanction

scored the strategic and economic interdependence

China. Borrell said the EU does not have evidence

between Europe and the Indo-Pacific. He highlighted the

of China supplying arms to Russia and that the bloc

region’s importance to European commerce and security

remains vigilant regarding dual-use goods and eco-

– 40% of trade involving Europe crosses the South China

nomic relationships that might circumvent sanctions.

Sea. He also noted the challenges posed by China’s ‘no

Some Chinese firms have faced restrictions, and the

limits’ partnership with Russia and the military support

EU continues to monitor the situation and urges China

that North Korea is providing to Russia in its war against

to use its influence to push Russia to cease its aggres-

Ukraine. Borrell stressed the EU’s commitment to secu-

sion in Ukraine.

rity based on international law and the UN Charter, and

Jennifer Parker, a SEAYLP delegate and Expert

its role as a credible partner in the region. He outlined

Associate at the National Security College of the Aus-

the EU’s strategic initiatives, including partnerships in

tralian National University, asked about Cambodia’s

Third plenary session

27

Josep Borrell Fontelles, High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice-President of the European Commission, EU

and ASEAN’s stances on China’s ‘nine-dash line’ in

Nick Childs, IISS Senior Fellow for Naval Forces

the South China Sea. General Tea Seiha reiterated that

and Maritime Security, asked Marles about the

Cambodia supports international law and ASEAN’s

future of AUKUS and its openness and inclusivity.

consultative approach to these issues. He emphasised

Marles explained that while AUKUS Pillar 1 focuses

the importance of dialogue in resolving issues and

on Australia’s

highlighted ASEAN’s role in finding balanced solu-

submarines, Pillar 2 involves collaboration on inno-

tions to regional disputes.

vative military technologies. Expansion to other

acquisition

of

nuclear-powered

Dr Jimbo Ken, Professor of the Faculty of Policy

countries such as Japan will depend on the maturity

Management at Keio University in Japan, asked

of existing collaborations among Australia, the UK

about a future Chinese military presence at Ream

and the US.

Naval Base in Cambodia. General Tea Seiha said

Antoine Levesques, IISS Research Fellow for South

Cambodia does not and will not allow any foreign

and Central Asian Defence, Strategy and Diplomacy,

military bases on its territory, emphasising that

asked Borrell about the effect of the European Defence

military exercises and assistance from China are

Industrial Strategy on partnerships in the Indo-Pacific.

only for training and modernisation. He reiterated

Borrell highlighted the need for Europe to enhance

Cambodia’s commitment to transparency and inter-

its defence-industrial base and technological capa-

national cooperation.

bilities, which would strengthen partnerships in the

Fenella McGerty, IISS Senior Fellow for Defence Economics, asked the panel about opportunities

Indo-Pacific by providing better support and fostering stronger relationships.

and challenges in defence-industrial collaboration.

Senior Colonel Ge Hanwen, Associate Profes-

Marles acknowledged the balance between col-

sor at the College of International Studies with

laboration and competition in the defence industry.

China’s National University of Defense Technology,

He stressed the importance of competitive tender-

questioned Australia’s narrative regarding China’s

ing to ensure value for money while fostering joint

actions and commitment to the rule of law and

ventures and partnerships to enhance Australia’s

pointed out that China has not fought a war against

defence capabilities.

neighbouring countries since the end of the Cold

28

The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

Josh Rogin, opinion columnist, Washington Post

Jennifer Parker, a SEAYLP delegate and Expert Associate at the National Security College of the Australian National University, Australia

Dr Jimbo Ken, Professor of the Faculty of Policy Management at Keio University, Japan

Fenella McGerty, Senior Fellow for Defence Economics, IISS

Nick Childs, Senior Fellow for Naval Forces and Maritime Security, IISS

Antoine Levesques, Research Fellow for South and Central Asian Defence, Strategy and Diplomacy, IISS

Senior Colonel Ge Hanwen, Associate Professor at the College of International Studies with the National University of Defense Technology, China

Colin Clark, Indo-Pacific Bureau Chief, Breaking Defense

War. Marles responded by affirming Australia’s com-

Colin Clark, the Indo-Pacific Bureau Chief at

mitment to the rules-based order, underscoring its

Breaking Defense, asked Marles about direct com-

role in regional peace and economic prosperity. He

munication with China regarding unsafe incidents.

acknowledged the importance of professional and

The minister confirmed that Australia has engaged

safe interactions with the Chinese armed forces while

directly with China about unsafe military conduct

emphasising the need for consistent application of

and reiterated the importance of professional and safe

international law by all countries.

interactions based on the rules-based order.

Third plenary session

29

CHAPTER 5

SPECIAL ADDRESS Saturday 1 June 2024, 14:45 SPEAKER General (Retd) Prabowo Subianto Minister of Defense and president-elect, Indonesia

Special address

General

(Retd)

Prabowo

Subianto,

Indonesian

hospital pending the agreement of all sides. He reit-

Minister of Defense and president-elect, began by

erated Indonesia’s support for a two-state solution.

announcing that the pursuit of peace, stability and

General Prabowo told delegates that he remains

prosperity is the cornerstone of Indonesia’s inter-

convinced that his peace plan for Ukraine, announced

national engagement. He underscored Indonesia is

at the 20th IISS Shangri-La Dialogue in 2023, is ‘logical,

committed to deepening inclusive dialogue and con-

relevant and necessary’. Indonesia views the conflict

crete collaboration and upholding international laws,

with deep sadness, and he urged delegates to not

particularly as pertains to respect for the national

lose sight of the dangers of escalation and the risk of

sovereignty and territorial integrity of all states as

nuclear war.

enshrined in the United Nations Charter.

Turning to the Indo-Pacific, General Prabowo

The president-elect spotlighted conflicts in

reprised his message at the 19th Shangri-La Dialogue

Ukraine and Palestine. He called for an investiga-

in 2022, calling for the leaders of the ‘great Chinese

tion into ‘recent tragic events’ in Rafah, and he

civilisation’ and ‘of the United States and its Western

hailed a proposal by the United States for a ceasefire

allies’ to meet their responsibilities as great powers.

in Gaza. The president-elect highlighted Indonesia’s

He expressed confidence that they could coexist, coop-

willingness to contribute ‘significant peacekeeping

erate and collaborate in pursuit of the common good.

forces’ to maintain and monitor such a ceasefire,

The president-elect closed by noting that while

as well as humanitarian assistance when requested

science and technology could improve livelihoods,

by the UN and medical personnel to operate a field

without wisdom, benevolence and goodwill it could

General (Retd) Prabowo Subianto, Minister of Defense and presidentelect, Indonesia

32

The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

Sir John Chipman KCMG, Executive Chairman, IISS

Richard Walker, Chief International Editor, Deutsche Welle

Benedict Weerasena, SEAYLP delegate and Research Director at Bait Al-Amanah

Iriana Freitas de Jesus Ximenez, SEAYLP delegate and PhD Candidate at Flinders University

also bring ‘catastrophe’ to the world. He urged that

comment that some countries do not want to listen to

nationalism be tempered by humanity, and patriotism

the opinions of others, and about Indonesia’s respon-

by wisdom and respect for all.

sibilities as a rising power. Iriana Freitas de Jesus Ximenez, a SEAYLP delegate and PhD Candidate at Flinders University, asked General Prabowo his posi-

QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS

tion on negotiations of land and maritime boundaries

Sir John Chipman KCMG, the Executive Chair-

between Indonesia and Timor-Leste.

man of the IISS, asked General Prabowo if Indonesia

General Prabowo responded that Indonesia must

would send a representative to the Summit on Peace in

maintain a policy of non-alignment. He said he would

Ukraine to be hosted by Switzerland two weeks later.

promote a good-neighbour policy, that ‘real secu-

General Prabowo responded good-naturedly and to

rity comes through very good relations between our

some laughter by reminding the chair that he was not

immediate neighbours’ and this is ‘part of our Asian

yet the president of Indonesia, so the question should

culture’. He noted that in his lifetime Indonesia has

be directed to President Joko Widodo.

had conflicts with neighbours Malaysia and Singa-

Richard Walker, Chief International Editor of

pore, but they had resolved their differences and were

Deutsche Welle, asked about concerns that countries

now ‘like brothers’. He noted that for many years he

in the Indo-Pacific would be ‘forced to pick sides’

had been involved in the East Timor conflict, but that

between the US and China. Benedict Weerasena, a

the previous night he and Dr José Ramos-Horta, Presi-

SEAYLP delegate and Research Director at think tank

dent of Timor-Leste, were hugging each other and

Bait Al-Amanah, asked about the president-elect’s

walking hand in hand.

Special address

33

CHAPTER 6 Cross-regional security order challenges

FOURTH PLENARY SESSION Saturday 1 June 2024, 15:15 SPEAKERS Ingrida Šimonytė Prime Minister, Lithuania Dr Khalid bin Mohammad Al-Attiyah Deputy Prime Minister; Minister of State for Defense Affairs, Qatar Kihara Minoru Minister of Defense, Japan

FOURTH PLENARY SESSION

Cross-regional security order challenges

Ingrida Šimonytė, Prime Minister, Lithuania

Ingrida Šimonytė, Prime Minister of Lithuania,

its recent opening of missions in Australia, Singapore,

opened the session by saying ‘small states matter’

South Korea and Taiwan.

and cooperation is essential. For small states, she said,

Dr Khalid bin Mohammad Al-Attiyah, Deputy

adherence to international law and norms is not a

Prime Minister and Minister of State for Defense

choice but a necessity. Lithuania, as a front-line state

Affairs of Qatar, described Qatar’s approach to cross-

on NATO’s eastern flank, knows this. No nation is an

regional challenges as ‘simple in concept, challenging

‘isolated island’, so a world ‘where imperialistic ambi-

in action and contentious to those who reject change’.

tions of some rule the day’ is one where ‘no one is big

Qatar seeks national development, to uphold the rule

enough’ to avoid aggression, she warned.

of law, and effective communication.

Lithuania spends around 2.0% of its GDP to help

Qatar, Al-Attiyah told delegates, considers states,

Ukraine, which she said needs support ‘without taboos

‘irrespective of size or might’, subject to international

or red lines’. Indo-Pacific countries, too, should help

law. This is why, for Qatar, the International Court of

Ukraine counter Russia’s focus on forming an ‘axis

Justice plays an ‘essential [role] to giving voice to the

of authoritarianism’ with Iran and North Korea. Part-

rights of the Palestinians’. Qatar has a clear position

ners could join Lithuania’s demining coalition or help

on their right to self-determination. For Qatar, he said,

rebuild Ukraine’s infrastructure. Lithuania’s regional

‘any alliance built on the idea of the continued subju-

cyber-defence and countering disinformation initia-

gation of a people is an alliance doomed to failure’.

tives are practical platforms for cooperation. They are

Aside from defence, Qatar concentrates on being an

enabled by Lithuania’s 2023 Indo-Pacific Strategy and

‘ally for peace’ and stable and reliable in its partnerships.

36

The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

Dr Khalid bin Mohammad Al-Attiyah, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of State for Defense Affairs, Qatar

It has a policy of open and consistent communication

in the Middle East Japan sees ‘untapped potential’ for

to ensure that misunderstandings do not arise. Others

greater ties.

could have benefitted from this approach in light of recent events, he said.

Kihara Minoru, Minister of Defense of Japan, con-

QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS

cluded the session by arguing that the world faces a

Naw Moo Moo Paw, a SEAYLP delegate and PhD

choice between cooperation and decay of the global

Candidate at the University of Massachusetts Lowell,

order. The risk of cross-regional simultaneous crises

asked how to counter disinformation. Šimonytė said

and inadvertent conflict has significantly increased,

countries can cooperate to better observe ‘patterns’

be it in Europe where the war in Ukraine shook the

across what may appear to be solely internal debates.

‘very foundation of the international order’; in the

Maeda Tadashi, Chairman of the Board, Japan Bank for

Middle East, where Japan has sought to calm the situ-

International Cooperation, asked Šimonytė about her

ation through diplomacy; or in East Asia, where North

concern on Russia–China rapprochement. Šimonytė

Korea’s missile launches, ‘unilateral changes to the

said Lithuania left China’s 17+1 engagement format in

status quo by force or coercion’ in the South China Sea

Europe and is ‘always pushing for a united strategy

and around Taiwan, as well as Russia’s actions, pose

of the European Union vis-à-vis China’. Lithuania, she

serious challenges.

noted, has signed a strategic partnership with Japan

Countries ought to come together to avoid a

and opened several embassies in the region, as well as

worse situation. Japan released a National Security

a representative office of Lithuania in Taipei.

Strategy, a National Defense Strategy and a Defense

Emile Hokayem, IISS Director of Regional Security and

Buildup Program in 2022. Those policies include

Senior Fellow for Middle East Security, asked about

focuses on counter-strike capabilities and defence-

Qatar’s partnerships. Al-Attiyah answered that Qatar

industrial cooperation with the US and through the

feels obligated to help contribute to regional stability

Global Combat Air Programme with Italy and the

and eschews belonging to any bloc. On Gaza, he said

United Kingdom. Japan seeks to enhance situational

that Qatar is working closely with the United States,

awareness through technology, alongside allied and

Egypt and other countries to reach a resolution that ‘eve-

like-minded countries. In Europe, Japan cooperates on

rybody can live with’. Dr Elisabeth Hauschild, Senior

cyber policy and Women, Peace and Security, while

Vice President of Diehl Stiftung & Co. KG, asked about

Fourth plenary session

37

Kihara Minoru, Minister of Defense, Japan

domestic and regional stability in the context of the

the status quo in both, requiring like-minded part-

war in Gaza. Al-Attiyah said the region seeks stability

nerships. ‘That is why I think we can cooperate

but the Israel–Palestine conflict causes turmoil as ‘every

with NATO’, he said. Bill Emmott, IISS Chairman

couple of years, every five years, we have the whole

of the Board of Trustees and Member of the Advi-

world rushing to our region’. Qatar, he said, supported

sory Council, asked about the Global Combat Air

the Arab peace initiative and a two-state solution.

Programme. The minister explained that Japan is

Robert Ward, IISS Japan Chair and Director of

examining the project in its Diet. More generally,

Geo-economics and Strategy, asked about Japan’s

Japan wanted defence-industrial cooperation with

ties with NATO. Kihara said Japan sees a maritime

other countries beyond the UK and Italy, including

continuity between the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-

on joint development. Japan is engaging with the US

Pacific regions. There had been attempts to change

on those issues too.

Naw Moo Moo Paw, a SEAYLP delegate and PhD Candidate at the University of Massachusetts Lowell

Emile Hokayem, Director of Regional Security and Senior Fellow for Middle East Security, IISS

38

Maeda Tadashi, Chairman of the Board, Japan Bank for International Cooperation

The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

Dr Elisabeth Hauschild, Senior Vice President of Diehl Stiftung & Co. KG

Robert Ward, Japan Chair and Director of Geo-economics and Strategy, IISS

Bill Emmott, Chairman of the Board of Trustees and Member of the Advisory Council, IISS

Fourth plenary session

39

CHAPTER 7

SIMULTANEOUS SPECIAL SESSIONS Friday 31 May 2024 SPECIAL SESSION 1 Deterrence and reassurance in the Asia-Pacific

SPECIAL SESSION 2 Defence cooperation and small state security

SPECIAL SESSION 3 Myanmar: opportunities for diplomacy amid different visions for peace

Saturday 1 June 2024 SPECIAL SESSION 4 Maritime law enforcement and confidence-building

SPECIAL SESSION 5 AI, cyber defence and future warfare

SPECIAL SESSION 6 Coordinating global humanitarian operations

SPECIAL SESSION 1

Deterrence and reassurance in the Asia-Pacific

Kajsa Ollongren, The Netherlands’ Minister of

IISS CHAIR

Defence, opened the discussion by saying that, amid

Veerle Nouwens Executive Director, IISS–Asia

instability and tension, reassurance and deterrence should come from cooperation and partnerships.

The EU and NATO have been the bedrock of Dutch

OPENING REMARKS

security, and maritime security and freedom of move-

Kajsa Ollongren Minister of Defence, The Netherlands

ment drive the Netherlands’ contributions to global

Admiral Samuel Paparo Commander, US Indo-Pacific Command

country to search for partnerships, including in the

Cui Tiankai Former Vice Minister, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, China

areas such as space, cyber and artificial intelligence.

Admiral Pierre Vandier Vice Chief of the Defence Staff, France

that underpin the international order, which Russia

maritime missions and deployments. This leads the Global South, and cooperation in new technology Ollongren said it is important to bolster the principles has torn up through its invasion of Ukraine. The need to stand by these principles underpins Dutch support for Ukraine, and the Netherlands will continue to support Ukrainian deterrence. While some aim to destabilise alliances, the Netherlands has chosen the path of cooperation.

Admiral Samuel Paparo, Commander of US IndoPacific Command, said deterrence and assurance are

42

The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

Kajsa Ollongren, Minister of Defence, The Netherlands

Admiral Samuel Paparo, Commander, US Indo-Pacific Command

Cui Tiankai, former vice minister of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, China

Admiral Pierre Vandier, Vice Chief of the Defence Staff, France

the cornerstones of modern military strategy. When

and effective’, working for the ‘interests of all the

they are integrated, modern deterrence strategies

countries’, taking care of sovereignty and territorial

go beyond military power, encompassing a range of

integrity and taking care of the ‘legitimate security

other areas such as diplomatic and economic activity.

concerns of all countries’.

This integrated deterrence approach, he said, makes

Admiral Pierre Vandier, Vice Chief of the Defence

aggression a riskier proposition. Assurance, mean-

Staff of France, said deterrence is a defensive strat-

while, focuses on building trust and confidence, such

egy, designed to prevent an aggressor from starting

as fostering stability within alliances and partnerships,

a confrontation, while reassurance, such as alliance

and discouraging potential aggressors with coali-

guarantees, contributes to deterrence by compli-

tions and alliances. Deterrence and assurance work

cating an aggressor’s calculus. France’s Cold War

in combination but face new challenges including the

experience illustrates how additional players could

emergence of non-state actors, missile proliferation,

‘contribute to regional stability and de-escalation’.

cyber warfare and AI.

Regional actors should develop ‘robust multilateral

Cui Tiankai, former vice minister of the Ministry

partnerships’ including military and civil dimensions,

of Foreign Affairs of China, said a balance is needed

which can signal capability and resolve, deterring

between deterrence and reassurance and that these

adversaries and contributing to regional stability.

are determined by broader strategy. In this, percep-

For its part, France looks to develop its partners’

tion is important, ‘of ourselves and our relationship’.

strategic options by developing military ties, defence

Perception of real or potential rivalry could lead to

industrial partnerships and a consistent diplomatic

greater reliance on deterrence strategies, and under

posture. Handling flashpoints, meanwhile, means

such conditions ‘assurances could not be very con-

establishing daily codes of conduct and maintain-

vincing’. A good understanding of perceptions and

ing communication channels, which are important to

relationships is needed to balance deterrence and

communicating and understanding military actions

reassurance. This mutual confidence could, he con-

and political intentions. A combination of military

tinued, lead to ‘sufficient reassurance’, which would

preparedness, strategic communication and diplo-

be a good basis on which to work together on global

matic initiatives is needed to deter aggression, and

challenges such as AI and climate change. He said

responsible and credible third parties could help

desired security architectures have to be ‘balanced

deterrence and reassurance.

Special session 1

43

SPECIAL SESSION 2

Defence cooperation and small state security

Hanno Pevkur, Estonia’s Minister of Defence, high-

IISS CHAIR

lighted Estonia’s unique security challenges due to

Viraj Solanki IISS Research Fellow, South and Central Asian Defence, Strategy and Diplomacy

its small size and proximity to Russia, which he characterised as the only actor that poses a threat to his country. For instance, the Ukrainian territory occupied

by Russia is two and a half times the size of Estonia’s

OPENING REMARKS

territory. Estonia, a member of both the EU and NATO,

Hanno Pevkur Minister of Defence, Estonia

views Russia’s military expansion and increased

Mohamed Ghassan Maumoon Minister of Defence, Maldives

Russia’s military reforms and the increase in Russian

Esa Pulkkinen Deputy Minister, Ministry of Defence, Finland

by increasing its defence spending to 3.4% of GDP

defence budget with concern, particularly given forces near the Finnish border. Estonia has responded in 2024, among the highest of any country in NATO. Pevkur emphasised Estonia’s commitment to NATO principles, particularly self-reliance under Article 3, and its integrated defence cooperation with Baltic and Nordic countries and other regional partners. He stressed the importance of international collaboration and historical resilience, recalling Estonia’s victory in its independence war against Russia despite being vastly outnumbered.

44

The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

Hanno Pevkur, Minister of Defence, Estonia

Mohamed

Ghassan

Mohamed Ghassan Maumoon, Minister of Defence, Maldives

Maumoon,

Minister

Esa Pulkkinen, Deputy Minister, Ministry of Defence, Finland

of

Esa Pulkkinen, Finland’s Deputy Minister of

Defence of the Maldives, highlighted the vulner-

Defence, discussed his country’s strategic position

ability of small states like the Maldives, which rely

and historical experiences with threats from Russia.

heavily on international law for their security. He

Finland’s response has been to develop a comprehensive

noted the increasing disregard for international

security model, integrating military and civil-society

norms by some larger states, which poses significant

preparedness. Finland’s recent accession to NATO,

challenges for smaller countries. The Maldives, under

spurred by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, marks the end

President Mohamed Muizzu, is prioritising build-

of its long history of military non-alignment. Pulkkinen

ing its own defence capabilities and fostering strong

emphasised Finland’s strong national-defence capa-

international partnerships, particularly with India

bilities, including a large military reserve supported by

and the United States. Maumoon highlighted the

conscription and advanced spearhead capabilities such

importance of maritime security and the Maldives’

as a modern fleet of F-35 fighter jets. He also highlighted

strategic role in safeguarding Indian Ocean trade

Finland’s deep defence cooperation with Nordic and

routes. He stressed that defence cooperation must

Baltic neighbours and its participation in multilateral

respect the sovereignty of the Maldives, rejecting

frameworks such as the Nordic Defence Cooperation

any foreign military presence on its soil, and called

and the Joint Expeditionary Force. Finland’s approach

for increased regional cooperation to address threats

combines robust national defence with active interna-

such as maritime terrorism, transnational crime and

tional engagement to create interdependencies that

climate change.

enhance its security.

Special session 2

45

SPECIAL SESSION 3

Myanmar: opportunities for diplomacy amid different visions for peace

IISS CHAIR

Anne-Marie Trevelyan, Minister of State for the

Aaron Connelly IISS Senior Fellow for Southeast Asian Politics and Foreign Policy

Indo-Pacific in the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office of the United Kingdom, underlined the severity of the humanitarian crisis in Myanmar while noting the need to keep the country

OPENING REMARKS

on the global agenda. Setting out a vision for peace,

Anne-Marie Trevelyan Minister of State for the Indo-Pacific, Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, UK

Trevelyan asserted that a durable solution must be

Dato’ Raja Nushirwan bin Zainal Abidin Director General, National Security Council, Malaysia

process to take shape. In addition to its role as pen-

Igor Driesmans Special Envoy for Myanmar, European External Action Service, European Union

UK supports both ASEAN and the UN Special Envoy

Ngurah Swajaya Head, Office of the Special Envoy of Indonesia to Myanmar, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Indonesia

de-escalation in violence across the country. She reiter-

Myanmar-owned and led, but that the international community can set the conditions required for such a holder at the UN Security Council, for example, the in their approaches to Myanmar. Trevelyan noted that for progress to take shape, there must first be a ated the need to continue humanitarian assistance for those directly affected by the conflict.

Dato’ Raja Nushirwan bin Zainal Abidin, Director General of the National Security Council in Malaysia, said his country’s view is that the Myanmar military’s 2021 coup d’état ‘is taking up valuable bandwidth’ from

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The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

Anne-Marie Trevelyan, Minister of State for the Indo-Pacific in the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, UK

Dato’ Raja Nushirwan bin Zainal Abidin, Director General of the National Security Council, Malaysia

Ambassador Igor Driesmans, special Envoy for Myanmar, European External Action Service, European Union

Ambassador Ngurah Swajaya, head of the Office of the Special Envoy of Indonesia to Myanmar for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Indonesia

ASEAN’s region-building efforts at a time of great

another. Finally, he said, ‘national stakeholders’ must

challenge. Raja Nushirwan warned of an impending

find a concrete solution to ‘satisfy the aspirations of

‘worst-case scenario’ in which the country breaks into

the people’.

warring factions after the fall of the central authority.

Ambassador Ngurah Swajaya, head of the Office

He asserted that regional stakeholders all have a role

of the Special Envoy of Indonesia to Myanmar for the

to play in influencing the trajectory of the conflict, but

Indonesian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, began with

that different approaches must be better coordinated

a reflection on how ASEAN’s historical approach to

and complementary to one another. Raja Nushirwan

Myanmar, predicated primarily on engagement with

concluded by saying international stakeholders should

the military government, failed to produce a durable

promote principles rather than groups or personalities.

solution. In the wake of the 2021 coup d’état, there-

Ambassador Igor Driesmans, Special Envoy for

fore, Indonesia realised a need to adopt an inclusive

Myanmar for the European External Action Service

approach and engage with all stakeholders. But in

of the European Union, explained that the EU has

the current context, Myanmar stakeholders remain

responded to the 2021 coup with eight rounds of

unwilling to look beyond military matters to prepare

targeted sanctions against the military junta. These

adequately for a political solution. Recognising this

accompany €265 million in development and humani-

challenge, the ambassador said the international com-

tarian aid to the people of Myanmar. Even so, he said,

munity should step up its efforts, including by passing

these efforts alone cannot solve the crisis. Outlining

another UN Security Council resolution. Whilst it will

a way forward, Igor insisted on the need to avoid

ultimately be up to Myanmar stakeholders to begin

partial solutions by engaging all stakeholders. Next,

dialogue, the changing situation on the ground has

confidence-building measures should be undertaken

created conditions conducive to outside parties push-

amongst all relevant parties. Thirdly, stakehold-

ing further on the need for an inclusive approach.

ers should recognise their shared interests and work

ASEAN and the international community should not

more closely to communicate and coordinate with one

give up and should continue to seek a solution.

Special session 3

47

SPECIAL SESSION 4

Maritime law enforcement and confidence-building

IISS CHAIR

Admiral Linda Fagan, Commandant of the United

Nick Childs IISS Senior Fellow for Naval Forces and Maritime Security

States Coast Guard, underscored the United States’ global connections and reliance on the sea. Nations’ ability to carry out basic maritime law enforcement is vital to maintaining stability ashore, she said, to pre-

OPENING REMARKS

vent activities such as trafficking in persons and drugs,

Admiral Linda Fagan Commandant, United States Coast Guard

cyber attacks and illegal, unreported and unregulated

Vice Admiral Dr Irvansyah Chief, Maritime Security Agency, Indonesia

coast guard, navy or fisheries service, are the best solu-

Admiral Ronnie Gil Gavan Commandant, Philippine Coast Guard

is a capability distinct from war fighting. It would be

Major General Le Quang Dao Commander, Vietnam Coast Guard

Unplanned Encounters at Sea, which currently guides

fishing. Constabulary services, whether called the tions to this. She added that maritime law enforcement helpful to have an agreement similar to the Code for the behaviour of navies, to help avoid conflict between coastguard or maritime law enforcement vessels of different nations.

Vice Admiral Dr Irvansyah, Chief of the Maritime Security Agency of Indonesia, pointed out that the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Coast Guard Forum has helped to build confidence and trust among countries in the region and provide

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The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

Admiral Linda Fagan, Commandant, US Coast Guard

Vice Admiral Dr Irvansyah, Chief, Maritime Security Agency, Indonesia

Admiral Ronnie Gil Gavan, Commandant, Philippine Coast Guard

Major General Le Quang Dao, Commander, Vietnam Coast Guard

a platform for preventive maritime diplomacy. As an

administration over its maritime areas, and to pursue

archipelagic state, he said, Indonesia is facing peren-

international cooperation and engagement, most sig-

nial challenges including transnational crime, territory

nificantly with treaty ally the US and with ASEAN. He

violation, piracy, accidents at sea and cyber crime. But

added that its approach to the use of water cannons

he said that illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing

was to save lives and hoped that others would adopt a

still contributes to 70% of maritime issues in Indonesia.

similar approach.

In terms of maritime law enforcement and confidence-

Major General Le Quang Dao, Commander of the

building, various factors such as an excessive reliance

Vietnam Coast Guard, joined his fellow panellists in

on law enforcement rather than preventive measures

emphasising that ‘the sea and oceans play a vital role

was encouraging more assertiveness between rival

in economics, politics, society, defence and security

countries. This reinforces the importance of collabora-

for not only coastal countries but also other nations

tion in the region and beyond, including through such

worldwide’. He pointed out, however, that maritime

forums as the Coast Guard Global Summit.

security, order and safety, as well as environmental

Admiral Ronnie Gil Gavan, Commandant of

issues and economic development, face both traditional

the Philippine Coast Guard, described the regional

and non-traditional challenges. These issues are global,

maritime domain as fluid, uncertain, complex and

he said, and ‘cannot be resolved by any single country,

ambiguous, and he said it was becoming more oper-

region, organisation or force’. He proposed continuing

ationally volatile. He noted the Philippine Coast

to strengthen current cooperation by complying with

Guard has become a more prominent feature of the

the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea,

Philippines’ frontier in the South China Sea. Its pur-

developing new cooperation mechanisms, and com-

pose was to enforce a safe, stable, prosperous and

mitting the Vietnam Coast Guard to taking an active

peaceful rules-based order, to fortify the Philippines’

and responsible role in this with other coast guards.

Special session 4

49

SPECIAL SESSION 5

AI, cyber defence and future warfare

IISS CHAIR

General Timothy Haugh, Commander of United

Julia Voo IISS Senior Fellow for Cyber Power and Future Conflict

States Cyber Command, opened the special session by outlining the US commitment to responsible, ethical and secure artificial intelligence (AI) deployment,

OPENING REMARKS

which he contrasted with nations that seek to use it

General Timothy Haugh Commander, United States Cyber Command

to control societies. He highlighted the success of the

Lieutenant General Ahsan Gulrez Director-General, Joint Staff Headquarters, Pakistan Armed Forces

Artificial Intelligence and Autonomy, which 55 nations

Admiral Rob Bauer Chair, Military Committee, NATO

‘to detect and counter threats, to drive and deepen

Mirjana Spoljaric President, International Committee of the Red Cross

tices’. To further the science of AI, he highlighted the

Political Declaration on Responsible Military Use of have endorsed. On the challenges of AI, General Haugh outlined the US Cyber Command’s approach: partnerships, and to develop and promote best pracUS National Security Agency’s AI Security Center as an example of a collaborative environment. General Haugh emphasised the US willingness to stand with Indo-Pacific partners and allies while separately stressing that nations looking to use emerging technologies should consider the values guiding their adoption.

Lieutenant General Ahsan Gulrez, DirectorGeneral of the Joint Staff Headquarters for the Pakistan

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The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

General Timothy Haugh, Commander, US Cyber Command

Lieutenant General Ahsan Gulrez, Director-General, Joint Staff Headquarters, Pakistan Armed Forces

Admiral Rob Bauer, Chair, Military Committee, NATO

Mirjana Spoljaric, President, International Committee of the Red Cross

Armed Forces, detailed the challenges and risks that

transparency. He drew attention to the effectiveness of

might arise as smaller states, non-state actors and

public-private partnership in preventing cyber opera-

high-tech companies gain access to emerging tech-

tions through openness of parties and flexibility in

nologies. On the topic of future warfare, he described

data storage policies. Admiral Bauer raised concerns

the expansion of conflict into the hybrid grey zone

around the unrestricted use of new technologies on the

through emerging technologies as countries seek to

battlefield, which has been accompanied by a decay in

gain a decisive advantage, be it through AI-enabled

conventional and nuclear arms control. He hoped that

cyber warfare; information operations to psychologi-

the rules-based international order would not be for-

cally intimidate a population; or the development

gotten in pursuit of high-tech weaponry.

of space-based offensive technologies. Lieutenant

Mirjana Spoljaric, President of the International

General Gulrez stressed how doctrine has been forced

Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), concluded the ses-

to adapt to innovation, raising ethical concerns such

sion by highlighting how emerging technologies have

as how lethal autonomous weapons systems are devel-

made humanitarian work more complex and difficult to

oped and the role of humans in their operations. He

manage. She highlighted three trends: the increasingly

urged the international community to cooperate on

widespread use of autonomous weapons systems with-

establishing a rules-based framework promoting such

out human intervention; the influence of AI on targeting

aspects as regulation, transparency and accessibility

that surpasses human cognitive capacity; and the use of

for AI.

cyber operations to target civilian infrastructure includ-

Admiral Rob Bauer, Chair of the NATO Military

ing those of medical services. Spoljaric made two calls

Committee, reminded participants that while some

to all states. Firstly, reaffirm their commitment to the

might imagine that, amid technological innovations,

accepted principles of international humanitarian law

conflict now only consists of drones, AI and quantum

through a new treaty regulating autonomous weapons

technology, the reality of modern warfare continues to

systems by 2026, which can be aided by implementing

involve trenches, artillery and human soldiers. Using

the ICRC’s recommendations for protecting civilians

Ukrainian successes as a reference, he advocated for

against digital threats during armed conflict. Secondly,

collaboration around the development and deploy-

oppose the concept of military victory at all costs, so

ment of new technologies that can increase battlefield

that technology can serve the cause of peace.

Special session 5

51

SPECIAL SESSION 6

Coordinating global humanitarian operations

IISS CHAIR

Dr Pål Jonson, Minister for Defence of Sweden,

Dr Irene Mia IISS Senior Fellow for Latin America, and Conflict, Security and Development; Editor, Armed Conflict Survey

opened the special session with an overview of challenges to humanitarian operations, which include ‘revisionist powers, malign state actors and terrorists’ as well as climate change. He referred to Russia’s fullscale invasion of Ukraine as having forced Sweden

OPENING REMARKS

to rethink its security, which led to its becoming

Dr Pål Jonson Minister for Defence, Sweden

a member of NATO in March 2024. He referred to

Pio Tikoduadua Minister for Home Affairs and Immigration, Fiji

Defence concept, and drew attention to the strategic

General Romeo Brawner Jr Chief of Staff, Armed Forces of the Philippines

In terms of implementation, he referred to the need

General Angus Campbell Chief of the Defence Force, Australia

Jonson observed the rising importance of the Asia-

the importance of resilience, citing Sweden’s Total links between the Euro-Atlantic and the Indo-Pacific. to build strong political and security partnerships.

Pacific for Sweden and said Sweden is drafting a new defence policy strategy for the region.

Pio Tikoduadua, Minister for Home Affairs and Immigration of Fiji, highlighted the increase in demand for military assistance in the face of emergencies in the Pacific Islands and beyond as a result of climate change. He cited the 280 climate-related

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The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

Dr Pål Jonson, Minister for Defence, Sweden

Pio Tikoduadua, Minister for Home Affairs and Immigration, Fiji

General Romeo Brawner Jr, Chief of Staff for the Armed Forces, Philippines

General Angus Campbell, Chief of the Defence Force, Australia

disasters to which militaries worldwide had been

efforts. Brawner cited the importance of cultivating a

deployed since June 2022. He urged clarity on roles

readiness culture throughout relevant organisations

and responsibilities before assistance of armed forces

by training, continuously improving strategy and

is sought or offered, and he emphasised the ‘primacy

deploying advanced technology. He concluded by

of civilian agencies in emergency management and

stressing the importance of strengthening interna-

response’. Tikoduadua also argued for ‘concurrency’

tional cooperation frameworks.

to be embedded into planning and implementation

General Angus Campbell, Chief of the Australian

as emergencies do not occur in isolation. He con-

Defence Force, concluded the special session addresses

cluded by referring to plans for a Pacific Response

by outlining three agents – the individual, the state and

Group that would include military personnel from the

climate change – that can create circumstances in which

Pacific region and act as a standby unit to support civil

a humanitarian response is needed. He also noted that

authorities in natural disasters.

the Australian Defence Force considers humanitarian

General Romeo Brawner Jr, Chief of Staff for the

operations as ranging from disaster relief to peace-

Armed Forces of the Philippines, drew attention to

keeping. He cited three requirements for humanitarian

the vulnerability of the Philippines to natural disas-

operations: legitimacy to act, political support, and the

ters and how this has required the country’s armed

capacity, when needed, to impose or threaten force

forces,

Coordination

to protect life. Campbell added that humanitarian

Center (CMCC), to develop a sophisticated and resil-

operations are ‘whole-of-government problems and

ient disaster-response mechanism. He outlined the

they need whole-of-government responses’. Planning

CMCC’s structure and how coordination bridges

should be for the long term, with civilian authorities

the gaps between military and civilian humanitarian

taking precedence as soon as possible.

through

its

Civil-Military

Special session 6

53

CHAPTER 8 Reception and dinner hosted by the president

CHAPTER 9 China’s approach to global security

FIFTH PLENARY SESSION Sunday 2 June 2024, 08:35 SPEAKERS Admiral Dong Jun Minister of National Defense, China

FIFTH PLENARY SESSION

China’s Approach to Global Security

Admiral Dong Jun, Minister of National Defense, China

Admiral Dong Jun, Minister of National Defense for

Weapon-Free Zone. China remains committed to

China, opened the session with a discussion of the

pursuing common security, he said, highlight-

Asia-Pacific region’s security landscape, which he

ing China’s policy of neutrality and preference for

characterised as naturally bound together as a commu-

dialogue to resolve the ‘Ukraine crisis’ and ‘Palestin-

nity with a shared future. According to the minister,

ian–Israeli conflict’. China is committed to equality,

Asia-Pacific countries hold a strong anti-hegemonic

mutual respect, openness and inclusiveness, and

tendency and that ‘attempts at decoupling, cutting

‘pursues the common good and shared interests

supply chains or building a small yard with high

above anything else’ in China’s defence cooperation

fences will find no support here’.

with other countries.

Admiral Dong outlined President Xi Jinping’s

The minister then turned to China’s commitment

three global initiatives: the Global Development

to safeguarding its ‘core interests’, which he said

Initiative, the Global Security Initiative and the

are sacred and inviolable. ‘The Taiwan question is at

Global Civilization Initiative. He outlined what he

the core of China’s core interests’, he told delegates.

described as China’s peaceful strategic culture and

According to the minister, the ‘One China’ policy

a national-defence policy that is purely defensive in

has ‘long become a universally recognised norm

nature. The minister reiterated that China’s nuclear

governing international relations’ and accused the

policy remains consistently based on no first use, and

Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) authorities in

that China is willing to take the lead in signing the

Taiwan of pursuing separation in an incremental way.

protocol to the treaty of the Southeast Asia Nuclear

These ‘separatists’, he said, would be ‘nailed to the

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The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

Admiral Dong Jun, Minister of National Defense, China, addresses the audience

pillar of shame in history’. The minister also pointed

QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS

to ‘some external forces’ for ‘hollowing out the One China principle with a salami-slicing strategy’ that

Josh Rogin, opinion columnist at the Washington

includes passing Taiwan-relevant legislation, selling

Post, asked about China’s commitment to peaceful

arms to Taiwan and having illegal official contacts

reunification with Taiwan, and whether China’s drills

with it. China’s handling of Taiwan-related issues in

following the presidential inauguration of Lai Ching-

accordance with Chinese laws is the internal affair of

te (William) were intended to convince the Taiwanese

China and ‘anyone who dares to separate Taiwan from

people that China is truly interested in peaceful reuni-

China will only end up in self-destruction’, he said.

fication. Rogin asked whether engaging with Taiwan’s

The admiral concluded the session with Chi-

chosen leaders might not better serve China’s cause

na’s recommendations for building a framework of

of peace and stability. Admiral Dong responded that

regional security cooperation to make the Asia-Pacific

Taiwan is a province of China, and there is a legal

an anchor for global stability and development. This

basis for this under international law. He cited the

would be based on protecting the legitimate security

1943 Cairo Declaration, the 1945 Potsdam Declaration

interests of all countries; building a more just and equi-

and UNGA 2758 Resolution in 1971. The minister said

table international order; giving full play to regional

the status quo is being unilaterally eroded, citing the

security architectures and multilateralism in regional

DPP’s failure to recognise the 1992 Consensus on the

security affairs; advancing open and substantive

‘One China’ policy; attempts to change the Constitu-

defence cooperation; setting an example of maritime

tion; changes to Taiwan’s textbooks to erase Chinese

security cooperation; and strengthening security gov-

identity; prevention of people-to-people ties; and

ernance in emerging areas such as new technologies.

strengthening of its military capabilities. The minister

On maritime security, Admiral Dong said China has

said this is an incremental approach to independence

exercised great restraint but that ‘there is a limit to

and outside forces are sending wrong signals to Tai-

[China’s] restraint’. On emerging technologies, he said

wan’s independence forces, thus making them ‘very

countries should ‘reject the behaviours of overstretch-

aggressive’. While the minister said China would

ing the concept of national security and preventing

pursue peaceful reunification ‘with the biggest sincer-

other countries’ technology development by imposing

ity’, he warned the ‘forces for Taiwan independence’ to

technology blockades’.

‘abandon the illusion and return to the right track of

Fifth plenary session

61

Josh Rogin, opinion columnist, Washington Post

Dr Chung Min Lee, Chairman of the Advisory Council and Trustee, IISS

unification’ and to build more understanding of China’s Anti-Secessionist Law.

Bonnie Glaser, Managing Director of the Indo-Pacific program of the German Marshall Fund

Bonnie Glaser, Managing Director of the IndoPacific program of the German Marshall Fund,

Dr Chung Min Lee, IISS Chairman of the Advisory

asked about China–Philippines–US relations and

Council and Trustee, asked the minister how audience

tensions around Second Thomas Shoal in the South

members could trust China when ‘your words and

China Sea – including the use of water cannons

your actions are totally opposite’, specifically citing

by the China Coast Guard against Philippine ves-

accusations of Chinese cyber activity, increases in

sels – and what China will do to de-escalate what

its nuclear forces, and pursuit of its territorial claims

she described as a dangerous situation. Admiral

in the South China Sea. Admiral Dong responded on

Dong responded that the Philippines and China

maritime security, telling delegates that there has never

had reached an agreement to allow the Philippines

been any incident in which a civilian ship has had

to send supplies to personnel on a ship in Second

its freedom of navigation compromised in the South

Thomas Shoal for humanitarian reasons. How-

China Sea. The minister then questioned why the issue

ever, according to Admiral Dong, the Philippines

of freedom of navigation is always brought up and

had unilaterally reneged on its promise not to also

asked whether big powers continue to increase their

send construction materials, and it was deliberately

military presence in the region to stir up trouble. Admi-

trying to make an issue of the resulting incidents.

ral Dong said many countries in the South China Sea

The minister warned that while Chinese law

had been victims of freedom of navigation operations

enforcement has been very restrained, its tolerance

by some countries who have not signed UNCLOS.

for deliberate provocation is limited.

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The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

CHAPTER 10 Connecting Indian Ocean and Pacific security

SIXTH PLENARY SESSION Sunday 2 June 2024, 09:30 SPEAKERS Sutin Klungsang Minister of Defence, Thailand Judith Collins Minister of Defence, New Zealand Bill Blair Minister of National Defence, Canada

SIXTH PLENARY SESSION

Connecting Indian Ocean and Pacific security Sutin Klungsang, Minister of Defence, Thailand

Sutin Klungsang, Minister of Defence for Thai-

He added that coordination and collaboration

land, opened the session by noting that Thailand

between ASEAN-led mechanisms with regional and

is located on a peninsula in Southeast Asia con-

sub-regional cooperation frameworks in both the

necting the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Thailand

Indian and Pacific Oceans would strengthen relation-

promotes cooperation with all countries through

ships. Thailand also urges enhanced domain awareness

various mechanisms to enhance connectivity and

through the promotion of maritime information-sharing

mutual prosperity in both ocean regions, high-

and collaboration, and it emphasises regional maritime

lighting China’s Belt and Road Initiative and the

cooperation by actively participating in various key

United States’ Indo-Pacific Economic Framework.

cooperative mechanisms.

Increasing connectivity presents opportunities for

Judith Collins, Minister of Defence for New

economic prosperity, societal benefits and collective

Zealand, outlined New Zealand’s connection to its

human-security development. However, it also poses

immediate Pacific region, the Indo-Pacific, and the

challenges to regional security, he said, ranging from

world at large. New Zealand is a long-standing con-

intensified geopolitical competition to emerging

tributor to a number of multinational peacekeeping

transborder security challenges such as transnational

operations, notably in the Middle East and on the

crime, illegal migration, piracy and environmen-

Korean Peninsula. They are complemented by a

tal degradation. Therefore, enhancing cooperation

‘regular programme’ of engagements, exercises and

among countries in the region is a ‘vital mechanism’

operations in Asia, with a particular focus on support-

to foster trust and confidence-building.

ing maritime security.

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The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

Judith Collins, Minister of Defence, New Zealand

The South Pacific continues to be an area of focus

Canada is increasing its naval deployments in the

for New Zealand as a Pacific nation. Its security, the

region, and it is beginning to deploy ships from the

minister said, is ‘directly connected’ to that of its

‘Atlantic Ocean through the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden

Pacific partners and the region as a whole. New Zea-

and the Indian Ocean’. He added that ‘perhaps by

land works with these partners and those from outside

2050 the fastest shipping route between Europe and

the region to ‘protect and promote Pacific security

Asia will be through our Arctic’.

interests’. Pacific Island countries have long identi-

Blair noted that Canada’s defence policy identifies the

fied climate change as the region’s primary security

Indo-Pacific as ‘one of the two priority regions for military

challenge, in addition to issues such as illegal, unregu-

presence for the very first time’. Canada, he said, would

lated and unreported fishing, as well as transnational

invest over $10 billion to sustain its naval fleets to be a

organised crime. Similarly, the Pacific is ‘increasingly

‘reliable and dependable partner’. Blair noted that, during

important as a theatre for strategic competition’. Per-

the Shangri-La Dialogue, he met with China’s Defense

haps most acutely in the South China Sea, there are

Minister, Admiral Dong Jun, in the first meeting between

‘conflicting states’ ambitions resulting in challenges to

Canada’s and China’s defence ministers in over 11 years.

maritime sovereignty’.

New Zealand recognised that building individual relationships with key partners in Southeast Asia

QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS

was ‘more critical than ever’. New Zealand welcomes

Morgan Michaels, IISS Research Fellow for Southeast

AUKUS as an ‘initiative to enhance regional security

Asian Politics and Foreign Policy, asked Sutin about

and stability’, and it is ‘investigating opportunities’ for

increasing flows of people from Myanmar to Thai-

potential involvement in AUKUS Pillar 2.

land. Sutin responded that ‘peace in Myanmar greatly

Bill Blair, Minister of National Defence for Canada,

affects peace and stability in Thailand, especially

highlighted that it is a ‘proud Pacific nation’ whose

between the people along the border’. Therefore, Thai-

future and prosperity is deeply tied to the stability

land closely monitors the situation in Myanmar. He

and security of the entire Indo-Pacific region. Blair

noted that 50,000 people from Myanmar had crossed

said Canada would join the new initiative on the resil-

the border of Thailand.

ience of defence-industrial bases in the Indo-Pacific, announced by US Secretary of Defense Austin.

Nick Childs, IISS Senior Fellow for Naval Forces and Maritime Security, asked Collins and Blair about

Sixth plenary session

65

Bill Blair, Minister of National Defence, Canada

their respective countries’ roles in collaborating with

the Pacific. Collins said the top issue that comes up in

AUKUS. Collins responded that New Zealand’s

defence in the Pacific is ‘illegal, unregulated fishing’.

strengths in technology could allow it to be a contribu-

Pacific nations often require assistance with monitor-

tor to AUKUS Pillar 2. Blair added that neither New

ing and taking action against illegal fishing.

Zealand nor Canada ‘were in the business of looking’

Viraj Solanki, IISS Research Fellow for South and Cen-

for nuclear-powered submarines. Canada is in the pro-

tral Asian Defence, Strategy and Diplomacy, asked about

cess of replacing its submarine fleet, but it is focused

Canada’s and New Zealand’s focus on the Indian Ocean,

on conventional submarines. Canada did, however,

including India. Collins responded that the Indian Ocean

have a great deal to contribute to AUKUS Pillar 2.

is ‘very relevant’. In particular, New Zealand is seeking to

Lieutenant Colonel Ki Manghout, a SEAYLP del-

‘renew and to grow and enhance our relationship’ with

egate and Assistant and Advisor to the Permanent

India. Blair said India is ‘very important’ to Canada. India

Secretary of State for the Ministry of National Defence

has posed some challenges for Canada recently, but ‘we

of Cambodia, asked the New Zealand minister about

believe that the appropriate resolution of that is through

climate change adaptability and other issues facing

dialogue and through proper engagement’.

Morgan Michaels, Research Fellow for Southeast Asian Politics and Foreign Policy, IISS

Lieutenant Colonel Ki Manghout, SEAYLP delegate and Assistant and Advisor to the Permanent Secretary of State for the Ministry of National Defence of Cambodia

66

Nick Childs, Senior Fellow for Naval Forces and Maritime Security, IISS

The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

Viraj Solanki, Research Fellow for South and Central Asian Defence, Strategy and Diplomacy, IISS

CHAPTER 11 Re-imagining solutions for global peace and regional stability

SEVENTH PLENARY SESSION Sunday 2 June 2024, 11:30 SPEAKERS Volodymyr Zelenskyy President, Ukraine Dato’ Seri Mohamed Khaled bin Nordin Minister of Defence, Malaysia Dr Ng Eng Hen Minister for Defence, Singapore

SEVENTH PLENARY SESSION

Re-imagining solutions for global peace and regional stability Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President, Ukraine

Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine,

He highlighted how diplomacy can work ‘when it

opened his address with a description of the de-

truly aims to protect life’ and cited ‘the coalitions from

grading of diplomacy over the last few decades.

military to humanitarian’ that had helped Ukraine to

He referred to Ukraine in the 1990s having ‘suf-

build resilience against Russian aggression. In par-

fered one of the greatest deceptions’ in modern

ticular, he thanked Germany, the Netherlands and the

history when security assurances from nuclear

United States for their support in bolstering Ukraini-

powers, after Ukraine handed over its nucle-

an air defences, while thanking especially Qatar for its

ar warheads to Russia, failed to ‘translate into

help in negotiating the return of Ukrainian children

real security’. He referred to Russia’s violations

kidnapped by Russia. Zelenskyy outlined the ‘new

of Ukraine’s ‘territory and sovereignty’ in the

security architecture’ that Ukraine is creating with

2000s, saying that Russia had ‘brought a war to

its partners, expressing confidence that Ukraine will

our land’ by the middle of the 2010s. Zelenskyy

join the EU. He referred to the Summit on Peace in

noted how Russia’s war against Ukraine now had

Ukraine that would take place later in June in Switzer-

a global impact.

land, and invited Asia’s leaders to attend.

Dato’ Seri Mohamed Khaled bin Nordin, Malay-

zero-sum thinking. Khaled also expressed Malaysia’s

sia’s Minister of Defence, emphasised the need for

hope for peace in Ukraine. He noted the importance

dialogue over what he termed binary views and

of working towards peace in Palestine and welcomed

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The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

Dato’ Seri Mohamed Khaled bin Nordin, Minister of Defence, Malaysia

‘any proposal’ that might help achieve an immediate

the South China Sea and urged more dialogue between

and permanent ceasefire in the Israel–Hamas conflict.

the US and Chinese military. He doubted there would

He stressed the right to national independence and

be a ‘glasnost or perestroika moment for China’ and

sovereignty for the Palestinians.

pointed to the importance of the role of ASEAN.

Khaled addressed regional security, including threats from emerging technology, cyber security, global warming and tensions in the South China Sea and Taiwan

QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS

Strait. He proposed re-imagining ‘the solution for a better

Dr Tim Huxley, former IISS–Asia executive director,

future’ in three pillars, or ‘outlooks’. The first is con-

asked Khaled about the impact on emerging secu-

structive dialogue, and he cited the convening power of

rity challenges in Borneo from Indonesia’s plan to

ASEAN as indispensable to such dialogue. The second

move its capital to Nusantara. Khaled replied that he

is ‘the robust initiation of comprehensive cooperation

is unconcerned about risks from an increased Indone-

across domains’. The third is using numerous layers and

sian presence across Malaysia’s border with Indonesia.

platforms to achieve complementary cooperation.

Tidarat Yingcharoen, a SEAYLP delegate and an adviser

Dr Ng Eng Hen, Singapore’s Minister for Defence,

to the chairman of the Committee on Foreign Affairs of

said, ‘We must avoid a physical conflict in Asia because

the House of Representatives of Thailand, asked about

we can all agree that neither Asia nor the world can

the region’s ability to contribute to ‘global peace and

withstand a third geopolitical shock.’ Dr Ng outlined

stability when at times there is not any’ in the region.

the ‘uncertainty of continuing support and achievable

Professor Rory Medcalf, the head of the National Secu-

outcomes’ for Ukraine and the risk of ‘wider contagion’

rity College at Australian National University, asked

from the Israel–Hamas conflict. He emphasised ‘not here

how ASEAN could convey to China its concerns about

in Asia’ as the ‘salient epiphany’ against this backdrop

the ‘devastating’ consequences of ‘the use of force

and welcomed that the US and China have both ‘disa-

against Taiwan’. Khaled emphasised the importance

vowed physical conflict between their two countries’.

of dialogue as the answer to most of the questions

Dr Ng warned against overly simplistic com-

posed. Dr Ng, meanwhile, referred to ASEAN’s ability

parisons between Russia’s attack on Ukraine and the

to settle many of its internal disputes ‘peacefully’ and

situation between Taiwan and China. He said there

the group’s ‘agency’. He continued that China did not

would be no quick resolution of competing claims in

‘need any advice about Taiwan from ASEAN’.

Seventh plenary session

69

Dr Ng Eng Hen, Minister for Defence, Singapore

Dr Neth Chanthima, a SEAYLP delegate and Advi-

mentioned in his address: nuclear security; food security;

sor to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International

and the release of prisoners of war and Ukrainian chil-

Cooperation of Cambodia, asked Zelenskyy whether

dren abducted by Russia. Veerle Nouwens, IISS–Asia

there should be a ‘collective call’ from Ukraine and its

Executive Director, asked Zelenksyy what he hoped for

allies for ‘the Israeli government to adhere to interna-

at the Summit on Peace in Ukraine from Asia-Pacific

tional humanitarian law’. Zelenskyy spoke of Israel’s

countries. Zelenskyy urged them to support the summit,

right to self-defence, indicated Ukraine’s willingness

including through their attendance, and expressed his

to give humanitarian support to Gaza and noted that

openness to ‘proposals and thoughts’ that could end the

Ukraine ‘recognises two states, Israel and Palestine’.

war and yield a ‘sustainable and just peace for Ukraine’.

Sir John Chipman KCMG, IISS Executive Chairman,

Dr Ng closed the session by noting his personal admi-

asked whether the seizure of Russia’s state assets would

ration for Zelenskyy and thanked him for his in-person

be discussed at the summit. Zelenskyy replied that the

participation after his virtual special address in 2022, as

summit would be centred on the three ‘main issues’ he

well as his leadership.

Sir John Chipman KCMG, Executive Chairman, IISS

Veerle Nouwens, Executive Director, IISS–Asia

70

Tidarat Yingcharoen, a SEAYLP delegate and an adviser to the chairman of the Committee on Foreign Affairs of the House of Representatives, Thailand

The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

Dr Neth Chanthima, a SEAYLP delegate and Advisor to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, Cambodia

Dr Tim Huxley, former executive director, IISS–Asia

Professor Rory Medcalf, the head of the National Security College at Australian National University

Seventh plenary session

71

CHAPTER 12 The Southeast Asian Young Leaders’ Programme

The Southeast Asian Young Leaders’ Programme The first roundtable at the Southeast Asian Young Leaders’ Programme

The seventh Southeast Asian Young Leaders’ Programme

next several hours, the young leaders participated

(SEAYLP) returned with its strongest cohort yet of aca-

in three roundtable discussions on regional security

demics, analysts, politicians, officials and journalists.

issues, held under rules of non-attribution.

Of the entire cohort, 25 delegates hailed from all ten

Dr Evan Laksmana, IISS Senior Fellow for Southeast Asia-Pacific

ASEAN member states. Seven additional delegates from

Asia

Australia, Canada, China, Germany, India, South Korea

Regional Security Assessment moderated the first dis-

and the United States joined the programme as guests.

cussion, on ‘Seeking stability in the South China Sea’.

For the third time, SEAYLP featured representation from

Panellists from Canada, the Philippines and Vietnam

four Pacific Island nations: Fiji, Papua New Guinea,

each spoke about their respective countries’ approaches

Timor-Leste and Tonga. In line with the programme’s

to security challenges in the South China Sea. Of par-

long-standing commitment to gender diversity, 21 of

ticular concern amongst participants around the table

the 40 young leaders were women. SEAYLP 2024 was

were tensions in the Spratly Islands and their implica-

funded by the Australian government, Global Affairs

tions for peace and security in the broader region.

Canada, Google Asia-Pacific and the Singapore Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Military

Modernisation;

Editor,

Dr Irene Mia, IISS Senior Fellow for Latin America, and Conflict, Security and Development; Editor, Armed Conflict Survey, moderated a second panel, on ‘Transnational crime and the Asia-

ROUNDTABLES ON REGIONAL SECURITY

Pacific security order’. Panellists from Cambodia,

The programme began with a welcome to the

Indonesia and Thailand spoke about challenges that

Shangri-La Dialogue given by Dr Bastian Giegerich,

trans-national organised crime poses along the mul-

IISS Director-General and Chief Executive. Over the

tinational shores of the Mekong River; through scam

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The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

A SEAYLP discussion moderated by Dr Irene Mia, IISS Senior Fellow for Latin America, and Conflict, Security and Development; Editor, Armed Conflict Survey

centres in Myanmar and other states; and through

PhD Candidate at Flinders University, asked General

illegal, unregulated and unreported fishing.

(Retd) Prabowo Subianto, Indonesian president-elect

Aaron Connelly, IISS Senior Fellow for Southeast

and Minister for National Defence, about land and

Asian Politics and Foreign Policy, moderated a final

maritime boundaries between Indonesia and Timor-

panel, focused on ‘Economic security amid the green

Leste. Naw Moo Moo Paw, PhD Candidate at the

transition’. Panellists from China, Malaysia and the US

University of Massachusetts Lowell, asked Ingrida

considered how the green transition is leading great

Šimonytė, Lithuanian Prime Minister, about coun-

powers and middle powers alike to pursue industrial

tering disinformation. Dr Neth Chanthima, Advisor

policies to maximise their economic security.

to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation

of

Cambodia,

asked

Volodymyr

Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine, whether there

PARTICIPATION IN PLENARY SESSIONS

should be a ‘collective call’ from Ukraine and its allies

SEAYLP delegates asked some of the most important

for Israel to adhere to humanitarian law.

questions fielded in the SLD plenary sessions. Justin FACTS Asia, asked Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr, President

ENGAGEMENTS WITH SENIOR DEFENCE LEADERS

of the Philippines, following his keynote address,

The delegates also had the opportunity for exclusive

about modernisation plans for the Armed Forces of

engagements with senior leaders during the Dialogue.

the Philippines. Nyein Nyein Thant Aung, Master’s

Dr José Ramos-Horta, President of Timor-Leste, held a

Candidate at Dublin City University, asked Sébastien

roundtable discussion with delegates where he spoke

Lecornu, French Minister of the Armed Forces, about

about Timor-Leste’s experience recovering from con-

the use of AI by non-state actors. Dr Hafiizh Hashim,

flict and pursuing development. Delegates enjoyed

Assistant Lecturer at the Academy of Brunei Studies

discussions with Bill Blair, the Minister for National

with the Universiti Brunei Darussalam, asked Richard

Defence of Canada, Greg Moriarty, Secretary of the

Marles, Australian Deputy Prime Minister and

Australian Department of Defence, and General Angus

Minister for Defence, about ASEAN’s regional role

Campbell, Chief of the Australian Defence Force. Dr

and Australia’s commitment to the ASEAN Outlook

Vivian Balakrishnan, Singapore’s Minister for Foreign

on the Indo-Pacific. Iriana Freitas de Jesus Ximenez,

Affairs, held a roundtable discussion following the

Baquisal, Resident National Security Analyst at

The Southeast Asian Young Leaders’ Programme

75

A roundtable at the Southeast Asian Young Leaders’ Programme

conclusion of the Dialogue. All sessions were held

continued their discussions at the residence of Allaster

under rules of non-attribution.

Cox, Australian High Commissioner to Singapore.

Hugh Jeffrey, Deputy Secretary for Strategy, Policy

SOCIAL ENGAGEMENTS AND NETWORKING OPPORTUNITIES

and Industry at the Australian Department of Defence,

The programme’s activities began on Thursday, 30

final day, the delegates travelled to the residence of

May, with a welcome reception at the residence of Jean-

Eivind Homme, Norwegian Ambassador to Singapore,

Dominique Ieraci, High Commissioner of Canada in

for a closing reception following the conclusion of the

Singapore, where they were greeted by General Wayne

Dialogue. As a result of the Dialogue, the young lead-

Eyre, Canadian Chief of Defence Staff. After a full day

ers will take with them both new friendships and new

of discussions on Friday, 31 May, SEAYLP delegates

ideas for collaboration.

Delegates at a roundtable at the Southeast Asian Young Leaders’ Programme

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The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

congratulated the delegates on their selection. On their

APPENDICES

I. Selected digital engagement and media coverage of the 2024 IISS Shangri-La Dialogue II. Selected IISS publications

APPENDIX I

Selected digital engagement and media coverage of the 2024 IISS Shangri-La Dialogue The SLD playlist section on the IISS YouTube channel

DIGITAL ENGAGEMENT HIGHLIGHTS The Shangri-La Dialogue led the conversation online.

Speeches and coverage from the plenary and special sessions – and all the events which happened behind the scenes in Singapore – generated over 9,300 unique mentions on social media over the weekend. These social conversations reached over 48 million people, with most of the online dialogue happening in the United States, United Kingdom, Asia, Europe and Australia. Plenary speakers and delegates tweeted and retweeted Dialogue-related content. Dialogue highlights and speaker announcements also featured on IISS LinkedIn and Instagram channels, sparking engagement and supporting the event’s visibility globally.

We leveraged our IISS YouTube channel to ensure global audiences could watch the plenary and special sessions live online. In addition, the plenary and special session recordings have so far generated over 194,000 views. Our YouTube playlists also included expert opinions to engage our audiences with prime IISS analysis on the ground in Singapore.

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The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

The five most viewed plenary sessions: • IISS Shangri-La Dialogue 2024: Indonesian presidentelect and Defence Minister General (Retd) Prabowo Subianto Special Address (over 61,000 views)

The SLD and SEAYLP bespoke web pages on the IISS website

The SLD section on the IISS website

•

•

•

•

IISS Shangri-La Dialogue 2024: Fifth plenary session: China’s Approach to Global Security (over 38,000 views) IISS Shangri-La Dialogue 2024: Seventh plenary session: Re-imagining Solutions for Global Peace and Regional Stability (over 28,000 views) IISS Shangri-La Dialogue 2024: Philippines President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr Keynote Address (over 20,000 views) IISS Shangri-La Dialogue 2024: First plenary session: United States’ Strategic Partnerships in the Indo-Pacific (over 8,500 views)

The IISS website was a key communication channel and provided information such as speaker agendas and content related to themes and topics of the Shangri-La Dialogue. It also offered customised landing pages for special sessions and the Southeast Asian Young Leaders’ Programme. Throughout the event, the website was updated with audio recordings, transcripts and additional information on a rolling basis and promoted via our social media channels. The bespoke web pages were viewed over 64,000 times during the week of the Dialogue.

We introduced individual web pages for all sessions to support an engaging user experience on www.iiss.org.

Each page includes speech and Q&A transcripts, embedded recordings and Flickr images.

Selected digital engagement and media coverage

79

IISS Flickr account

IISS Sounds Strategic

The five most viewed web pages: • Shangri-La Dialogue 2024 (event page) (over 58,000 views) • Speaker Agenda (over 6,500 views) • Seventh Plenary (over 2,500 views) • Fifth Plenary (over 1,500 views) • Keynote Address (over 1,400 views) • Southeast Asian Young Leaders’ Programme (over 1,000 views) The IISS website also included a link to the IISS Flickr account with highlights from the event.

Our social media and website activities were complemented by special podcast episodes on Sounds Strategic, generating over 3,300 downloads across podcast platforms: • Pre-event: Sounds Strategic podcast host Meia Nouwens was joined by IISS experts Evan A. Laksmana, Julia Voo, Nick Childs and Viraj Solanki to discuss the upcoming event: IISS Shangri-La Dialogue 2024.

• Post-event: Nouwens was joined by IISS experts Dr Bastian Giegerich, Veerle Nouwens, Dr Ben

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The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

Schreer and Morgan Michaels to discuss the key themes and takeaways from the Dialogue on the Sounds Strategic podcast episode IISS Shangri-La Dialogue 2024: Reflections.

The IISS blogs highlighted themes and topics of the Dialogue and were viewed over 10,000 times globally.

ONLINE ANALYSIS

MEDIA ENGAGEMENT HIGHLIGHTS

Navigating small-state security in the Indo-Pacific (iiss.org)

by Viraj Solanki and Antoine Levesques A special session at the 21st IISS Shangri-La Dialogue will discuss small island and littoral states’ growing defence cooperation with major powers, and their prospects for shaping it to their advantage.

A large number of media personnel were present at this year’s Shangri-La Dialogue, with the IISS proud to accommodate over 40 media outlets from around the world. Nearly 300 journalists and broadcasters attended the Dialogue to record and observe events. Here follows a selection of news articles and opinion pieces written by members of the media who attended the Dialogue.

The IISS celebrated the 21st edition of the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue with its global audiences. Convened by the IISS, the world’s media and key opinion formers on security issues in the Asia-Pacific region and beyond gathered at the Dialogue in Singapore. Together, they led the news and drove key conversations online, communicating to their readers, viewers and followers the complexities, subtleties and advantages that in-person defence diplomacy can provide to an increasingly insecure region.

Coming of age? European defence engagement in the Indo-Pacific (iiss.org) by Ben Schreer European defence engagement with the Indo-Pacific is increasing. 2024 and 2025 will see expanded deployments and greater participation in regional exercises. This growing presence will face challenges, however, including limited resources and US–China competition.

Contested connectivity: cyber threats in the Asia-Pacific (iiss.org) by Julia Voo Facing increasing threats in cyberspace, the region is building resilience through partnerships with allied governments and industry.

Myanmar policy at a crossroads (iiss.org) by Morgan Michaels In light of the junta’s increasingly tenuous hold on Myanmar’s key strategic areas, neighbouring states are having to confront the possibility of regime collapse and rethink their relationships with the country’s various opposition actors.

MILITARY BALANCE BLOG PLA remains focused on the Asia-Pacific and building resilience (iiss.org) by Meia Nouwens China’s growing assertiveness and capability advances may make it more difficult for Beijing to paint itself as a peaceful and stabilising actor in the Asia-Pacific region at this year’s IISS Shangri-La Dialogue that kicks off 31 May. The AUKUS balancing act is not getting easier (iiss.org)

by Nick Childs The AUKUS partners point to real progress in the past year but many of the challenges in delivering nuclearpowered submarines to Australia and co-developing a range of advanced defence technologies look as great as ever.

Asian defence spending grows, China’s grows more (iiss.org)

by Fenella McGerty Security concerns are propelling defence spending in Asia, but despite national increases, China now represents near half of total regional military expenditure.

Guardian 2 June 2024

Zelenskiy accuses China of deterring countries from going to peace summit Volodomyr Zelenskiy has accused China of discouraging other countries from attending a peace summit in Switzerland later this month that is aimed at bringing peace to war-ravaged Ukraine.

Speaking at Asia’s biggest security conference, the Shangri-La Dialogue, in Singapore, the Ukrainian president sought to rally support among Asia-Pacific nations, urging them to attend the Swiss meeting.

‘The world has to be resilient, it needs to be strong, it has to pressure Russia,’ Zelenskiy said. ‘There is no other way to stop Putin – only diplomatic isolation, a strong Ukrainian military and for all the countries of the world to not balance between Ukraine and Russia but to defend international justice and law.’

Zelenskiy said he was ‘disappointed’ some world leaders had not yet confirmed attendance.

Russia was seeking to undermine the summit by warning countries not to attend and threatening a blockade of agricultural goods and food products, he said.

He later told media that China had supported such efforts to deter leaders from participating. ‘Regrettably, Russia, using Chinese influence on the region, using Chinese diplomats also, does everything to disrupt the peace summit. It is unfortunate that such a big, independent, powerful country as China is an instrument in the hands of Putin,’ he said.

Since a phone call between Zelenskiy and the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, one year ago, Ukraine had sought

Selected digital engagement and media coverage

81

meetings with Chinese officials at all levels, he said, but this had not been granted. He had not met Chinese officials despite their presence in Singapore.

Earlier on Sunday, the Chinese defence minister, Dong Jun, told attendees of the Shangri-La Dialogue his country had ‘been promoting peace talks with a responsible attitude’. ‘We have never provided weapons to either party of the conflict. We have put stricter control on the export of dual use items and have never done anything to fan the flames. We stand firmly on the side of peace and dialogue,’ Dong said.

But Zelenskiy said: ‘With China’s support to Russia, the war will last longer and that is bad for the whole world.

You cannot say that we accept sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine and at the same time be on the side of the country that violates the principles of the UN charter and the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine.’

Zelenskiy said on X he had met the US defence secretary, Lloyd Austin, on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue on Sunday morning. ‘We discussed the key issues: the defence needs of our country, bolstering Ukraine’s air defence system, the F-16 coalition, and drafting of a bilateral security agreement,’ he said.

He said he was grateful to Joe Biden for his decision to allow Ukraine to use US-supplied weapons against targets in Russia. However, in comments to media he said that this was not enough as Ukraine still did not have the systems or permissions to target airfields from which Russia was ‘permanently firing’. ©Guardian Reprinted with permission

Washington Post 2 June 2024

U.S. and China lay out competing security visions for Asia-Pacific Defense leaders from the United States and China laid out their competing visions of a modern security order in the Indo-Pacific this weekend, with the American side championing Washington’s expanded network of security partnerships, while Chinese officials promoted their own such alliances and cast the United States as a foreign aggressor meddling in Asian affairs.

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and his Chinese counterpart, Dong Jun, each delivered addresses at the Shangri-La Dialogue, an annual international security conference in Singapore — one of the rare settings that brings senior officials from the rival militaries into proximity with one another through panel discussions, dinners and cocktail hours in a luxury hotel. Austin and

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The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

Dong also met on the summit’s sidelines on Friday, their first meeting in two years.

Competing rhetoric over the course of the weekend’s debates — much of it referencing recent events, such as China’s spate of large-scale military exercises around Taiwan less than two weeks ago — underscored the sense that regional tensions have grown increasingly incendiary.

The dialogue also allowed the two powers to make their arguments before an international audience of their peers, including defense officials from nearby South Korea, Japan, Vietnam, Indonesia, the Philippines, Cambodia and others — themselves the targets of U.S. and Chinese influence campaigns and the often uncomfortable bystanders to a global strategic power struggle.

Both Austin and Dong appealed to shared values and a respect for international law, without mentioning the other’s country by name, at a conference that nonetheless revolved almost entirely around the U.S.-China relationship.

In his address to the conference Saturday, Austin stressed the United States’ vast and expanding network of security partnerships in the Indo-Pacific — a clear warning to Beijing, observers said, that further Chinese military aggression in the region could prompt a U.S. response.

‘We are operating with our allies and partners like never before,’ Austin said, noting that the United States has recently ‘secured a series of historic agreements with our allies and partners to transform our force posture throughout the Indo-Pacific’.

U.S., Japanese and South Korean forces are training together in ‘unprecedented’ ways, he said.

The United States and the Philippines, along with Australia and France, recently completed their largest annual Balikatan joint naval exercise. The United States has also forged new levels of defense cooperation with Australia, Japan, South Korea, Papua New Guinea and the Philippines.

And this was ‘just a starting point,’ Austin added. ‘We are on the verge of even more powerful changes’ in U.S. force posture in the Indo-Pacific, he said.

Dong’s remarks on Sunday largely mirrored Austin’s rhetoric but flipped the claims of respect for international order and allegations of unlawful aggression to blame Washington and its allies and partners. It is China that is committed to peace and that has exercised tremendous ‘restraint’ in the Asia-Pacific region, Dong said, alluding to the United States — without naming it — as a nefarious outsider seeking to influence the affairs of a region where it doesn’t belong.

China, too, has vast strategic partnerships around the world, Dong said, as well as the ability and willingness to arm and train other countries in the region. ‘We have a well-established system of military education, and we are ready to provide greater support to other countries in

personnel training and offer tailored courses to meet different needs,’ he said.

In remarks that hewed closely to Beijing’s usual talking points, Dong described China’s aspirations to live in a ‘multipolar world’ — as opposed to one dominated by the United States — and appealed to the rest of the region’s ‘unique Asian wisdom’ and shared experience of “imperialism” from outside forces.

China’s disputes with Taiwan and in the South China Sea were regional issues best resolved between regional states, not by outsiders, he said — again, without referring to the United States.

‘Anyone who dares to separate Taiwan from China will only end up in self-destruction,’ Dong warned.

The growing frustration felt by many of China’s regional neighbors over Chinese intimidation at sea, as well as the criminal and cyberthreats posed by Chinese state-affiliated companies, was also palpable over the weekend, as academics and representatives of other Asian countries that have drawn closer to the United States in recent months picked apart Dong’s claims and accused China of dishonesty.

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., in his opening remarks Friday night, laid out what many interpreted as a warning to China, referring to the ‘illegal, coercive, aggressive and deceptive actions’ that were undermining regional security in territorial waters claimed by the Philippines — a likely reference to intensifying aggression by the Chinese coast guard and maritime militia that has regularly blocked the passage of Philippine ships near disputed islands in recent months.

Marcos’s remarks illustrated the sharp pivot the Philippine government has taken in the past two years, aligning itself more closely with Washington and breaking with the previous administration’s more deferential approach to China. Any ‘willful’ act that led to deaths of Filipinos during the standoff with China would be considered an ‘act of war,’ triggering a U.S. military response under the countries’ mutual defense treaty, Marcos said.

Others also raised objections.

During a question-and-answer session following Dong’s speech on Sunday, Chung Min Lee, an expert on Korean and Northeast Asian security at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, addressed the minister sharply, laying out the contradictions between Dong’s claims of peace and cooperation from the podium and the state-backed cyberattacks against China’s neighbors, its support for North Korea’s dictatorship and the threatening behaviors of its coast guard in contested waters.

‘How can we trust you when your words and your actions are totally opposite?’ Lee asked, prompting applause from the multinational audience.

Meanwhile, when a Chinese military officer and academic at China’s Institute of War Studies, Sr. Col. Cao Yanzhong, suggested Saturday that NATO expansion in Europe ‘led to the Ukraine crisis’, Austin garnered applause when he said he ‘respectfully’ disagreed with that claim.

‘I thought it was striking that there was spontaneous and widespread applause,’ said Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.), who attended the conference after meeting with officials in Taiwan and the Philippines. The notion that the United States and NATO set off the Ukraine war is ‘a narrative that I hear a lot in the Global South,’ he said.

The United States has been able to expand its strategic alliances in the Indo-Pacific ‘in large measure because of the aggressiveness of China’, Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska), another member of the Senate delegation to Singapore, told reporters.

To the smaller nations of Southeast Asia, China is an inescapable ‘geopolitical fact’, Bilahari Kausikan, former ambassador at large for Singapore’s Foreign Ministry, said in an interview. But there is also a growing, albeit often unspoken, acceptance that the United States, too, is an ‘irreplaceable part of the security balance’, Bilahari said.

‘That is not so much a success for U.S. policy as a failure of Chinese policy.’

Even as some Asian officials brooked stronger public dissent with China than in previous years, many were cautious not to take their criticism too far.

Wang Dong, a scholar at Peking University and member of the Chinese delegation to Singapore, observed that no other country’s officials made statements as strong as Marcos’s, saying: ‘The absence of public support for the Marcos position speaks volumes about what other regional countries consider a pragmatic approach.’

Dewi Fortuna Anwar, an Indonesian academic, worried during a question-and-answer session whether the twists and turns of the U.S.–China relationship would leave the rest of the region ‘trampled’. And Singaporean Defense Minister Ng Eng Hen stressed that the region found Washington’s and Beijing’s stated aversion to conflict ‘reassuring’ but also said that ‘most of us here would agree that the U.S. and China are the dominant factors to decide Asia’s fate of this decade and beyond.’

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who made a late arrival to the conference Sunday, also trod carefully around China, criticizing its alleged arms support for Russia but also appealing to Beijing to participate in Ukraine’s upcoming peace summit in Switzerland.

‘We need the support of Asian countries,’ Zelensky said during a news conference. ‘We respect each voice, each territory. … We want Asia to know what is going on in Ukraine.’ ©Washington Post Reprinted with permission

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Telegraph 2 June 2024

Taiwan separatists will be ‘crushed to pieces’, warns China Taiwan separatists will be ‘crushed to pieces’, China warned at a defence summit on Sunday.

Admiral Dong Jun, used a significant portion of his speech at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore to lash out at the incoming administration of Lai Ching-te, the newly elected Taiwanese president, whom Beijing regards as a ‘dangerous separatist’.

China regards the self-ruling democracy of Taiwan as a breakaway province that must reunify with the mainland.

Adml Dong said that his military was ready to ‘forcefully’ stop attempts by Taiwan from gaining independence.

His comments come a week after China held military ‘punishment’ drills around Taiwan, warning of the risk of conflict after Mr Lai’s inauguration.

The president’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) was pursuing separatism in an incremental way and erasing Taiwan’s Chinese identity, alleged Adml Dong.

‘They [“separatists”] will be nailed to the pillar of shame in history,’ he told a crowded room of Asia-Pacific, European and US defence and intelligence officials.

‘The Chinese People’s Liberation Army has always been an indestructible and powerful force in defence of the unification of the motherland, and it will act resolutely and forcefully at all times to curb the independence of Taiwan and to ensure that it never succeeds in its attempts,’ he said.

‘Whoever dares to split Taiwan from China will be crushed to pieces and suffer his own destruction.’

After being sworn into office, Mr Lai invited China to engage in dialogue with Taiwan and urged Beijing to ‘jointly shoulder the important responsibility of regional stability’.

But the Chinese Communist Party, which claims Taiwan as its own territory despite never ruling there, has snubbed his attempts to talk.

The three-day security forum in Singapore has been dominated by the strategic rivalry between the United States and China and its impact on the Indo-Pacific region.

Adml Dong, who met with Lloyd Austin, the US defence secretary, for the first time face-to-face on Friday, said that more dialogue was necessary because of the differences between the two militaries.

‘We have always been open to exchanges and cooperation, but this requires both sides to meet each other halfway,’ he said.

But he also criticised Washington for its support for the Philippines, which has a number of territorial disputes with Beijing in the South China Sea, and for Taiwan, which receives much of its weaponry from the United States.

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‘We will not allow anyone to bring geopolitical conflicts or any war, whether hot or cold, into our region,’ he said.

‘We will not allow any country or any force to create conflict and chaos in our region.’ ©Telegraph Reprinted with permission

Straits Times 3 June 2024

Shangri-La Dialogue’s success comes from not skirting issues: Ng Eng Hen The yardstick for measuring the success of security forums like the Shangri-La Dialogue should be whether real issues have been brought up and discussed, said Singapore’s Defence Minister Ng Eng Hen. And in his eyes, the dialogue, which ran from May 31 to June 2, has been a success.

The thorny issues of territories contested in the South China Sea and Taiwan’s independence were brought up and discussions were held frankly and robustly, and at a high level, he pointed out.

He cited the examples of China’s Defence Minister Dong Jun making clear his country’s stance on Taiwan in his plenary on June 2, as well as Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr warning of repercussions in the event of Filipino deaths in the South China Sea during his keynote speech on the opening evening.

Dr Ng, who spoke to reporters on the afternoon of the event’s final day, noted that such forums are not the same as bilateral or multilateral negotiations, where more concrete outcomes are sought.

‘That would be a very high bar,’ he said.

Instead, the defence and security professionals who participated in the 2024 Shangri-La Dialogue would have come away with a deeper feel of the thorny issues.

Dr Ng, on the morning of June 2, also spoke at the seventh plenary session of the dialogue, where he expressed appreciation to the participants for attending the event, and for their willingness to engage, listen, and sometimes do verbal combat.

The Shangri-La Dialogue, which is in its 21st edition this year, has come of age, he noted.

‘I think it’s a bit more realistic, less idealistic, but more practical.’

Dr Ng said he was asked by reporters about his experiences with international counterparts at other similar events, such as the Xiangshan Forum in China.

These events tended to reflect the culture of their host countries, said Dr Ng. He noted that difficult questions were posed in public at Western security forums, while they would appear to be impolite at the Xiangshan Forum.

Nevertheless, he noted that 2024’s delegation from China at the Shangri-La Dialogue has learnt from their past participation, observing that they were quick to call for their own press conferences to issue their own rebuttals and to get their point across.

Touching on Admiral Dong’s debut speech at the plenary session, where the Defence Minister spoke about China’s approach to global security, Dr Ng said it was very clear and articulated China’s point of view.

Dr Ng said that the increasing popularity of the Shangri-La Dialogue was a good outcome, with an increasing number of countries seeking opportunities for their leaders and defence officials to speak at the event.

This has resulted in an increase in the number of special sessions at 2024’s event to cater to the increased demand for speaking opportunities.

The complexity of the logistics needed for the event’s dinner has also been increasing, as more heads of states are now coming, which Dr Ng welcomed. ©Straits Times Reprinted with permission

New York Times 2 June 2024

In Singapore, China Warns U.S. While Zelensky Seeks Support The annual Shangri-La Dialogue became a stage for competing demands on U.S. global power, including the war in Ukraine and tensions over Taiwan.

The competing strains on U.S. global power came into sharp focus at a security conference on Sunday, where China accused the United States of stoking tensions around Taiwan and the South China Sea, and President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine was seeking greater support for his embattled country.

These scenes played out at the Shangri-La Dialogue, an annual security forum in Singapore that has long been a barometer of the ups and downs of U.S.-China relations.

This year, the United States Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III and China’s defense minister, Adm. Dong Jun, held talks, something the top defense officials from the two countries have not always done at this gathering. But Admiral Dong made clear that China remained deeply antagonistic to U.S. influence and alliance-building across Asia, especially American support for Taiwan, the island democracy that Beijing claims as its territory.

‘These malign intentions are drawing Taiwan to the dangers of war,’ Admiral Dong told the meeting after making an oblique but unmistakable reference to U.S. military and political support for Taiwan. ’’Anyone who dares split Taiwan from China will be smashed to pieces and court their own destruction.’’

Admiral Dong’s warnings, like other combative comments from Chinese military officers at the meeting, reflected how Beijing and Washington remain sharply divided over some fundamental regional issues, even as they discuss ways to keep military friction at sea and in the air from spiraling into crisis.

Last month, China held two days of menacing military exercises around Taiwan, accusing its new president, Lai Ching-te, of trying to advance independence for the island.

Mr. Lai’s Democratic Progressive Party has asserted that Taiwan has a separate status, though Mr. Lai has indicated that he will not seek outright independence.

Mr. Austin warned in a speech on Saturday against ‘’actions in this region that erode the status quo and threaten peace and stability,’’ an indirect reference to Chinese pressure on Taiwan. Mr. Austin also said ’’we all share an interest in ensuring that the South China Sea remains open and free,’’ despite Chinese territorial claims across the sea.

But Admiral Dong accused an unnamed Southeast Asian country – clearly the Philippines – of stirring up trouble over disputed islands and shoals in the sea, and again suggested that the United States was the real culprit.

‘A certain country, incited by external forces, has abandoned bilateral agreements, broken its promises, and taken premeditated action to stir up incidents,’ he said in his speech to diplomats, military officials and experts, many from Asian countries. ’China has exercised sufficient restraint in responding to these provocations, but this restraint has its limits.’

The Philippines has been at odds with China over their rival claims in the South China Sea, in an area that Manila calls the West Philippine Sea. In 2016, an international tribunal under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea rejected China’s expansive claims in the South China Sea, which included shoals near the Philippines. Beijing ignored that ruling.

At the meeting in Singapore, the president of the Philippines, Ferdinand Marcos Jr., warned on Friday that his government could call on support from the United States under a mutual defense treaty in the event that a Chinese vessel caused the death of a Philippine sailor.

A U.S. official who heard Admiral Dong’s speech took issue with his portrayal of China and its People’s Liberation Army as the innocent victim in regional disputes. The official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss geopolitical tensions, said the admiral’s assertion was at odds with the Chinese military’s ‘coercive activity’ in the region.

Even in Singapore, Mr. Austin and other Western officials were also reminded that Ukraine’s more than two-year war against Russian invasion continues to demand their leaders’ attention and their taxpayers’ resources.

Mr. Zelensky was a last-minute addition to the gathering. He met on Sunday with Mr. Austin, who provided an update on U.S. security assistance, according to a

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Pentagon readout of the meeting, before Mr. Zelensky addressed the conference.

Faced with Russian military advances in his country, Mr. Zelensky has been urging the United States and Europe to step up support for his forces and overcome fears about letting Ukraine fire American missiles and other weapons at military targets inside Russia.

He was greeted with loud applause before delivering a 15-minute speech promoting a peace summit on Ukraine in Switzerland next month that he said officials from 106 countries had agreed to join. He appealed to leaders across the Indo-Pacific to support the gathering with their attendance or ideas.

‘We are ready to hear various proposals and thoughts that lead not to the continuation of the war – and this is very important – but to the end,’ he said. He added that only diplomacy with persistence would end the conflict.

‘The world has to be resilient; it has to be strong; it has to put pressure on Russia,’ he told the gathering. ‘There is no other way to stop Putin.’

Analysts said his appearance showed the increased interconnectedness among security issues worldwide.

‘It’s a reminder to countries in Asia and the Indo-Pacific that the war taking place in Ukraine isn’t just a European problem. It’s a problem for the world,’ said Bonnie S. Glaser, managing director of the Indo-Pacific program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States.

‘Zelensky recognizes that he has to go out and remind the world to continue to support the fight that his country is engaged in,’ said Ms. Glaser, who was at the Singapore conference.

Mr. Zelensky said on social media that he also had met with U.S. Congress members at the gathering in Singapore, including Representative Michael McCaul of Texas, a Republican who is the chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. Mr. Zelensky thanked him for helping win approval in April for additional military assistance for Ukraine, but also suggested more was needed.

‘We talked about the frontline situation and military assistance, particularly additional systems and missiles to strengthen our air defense,’ Mr. Zelensky said. ©New York Times Reprinted with permission

Politico 4 June 2024

Beijing riles Zelenskyy and Marcos

Hello China watchers. This is Stuart Lau in Singapore, covering the Shangri-La Dialogue this past weekend with my colleagues Suzanne Lynch and Zoya Sheftalovich.

Your U.S.–China dossier will come from Phelim Kine on Thursday, as usual.

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Thirty five years ago today: Nothing happened in Tiananmen Square, according to China. (Even though the military crackdown of student protests at Tiananmen Square was well-documented all over the world.)

Ukraine gets tough on China Angry at Putin’s best buddy: Arriving in Singapore via Stockholm and Abu Dhabi, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy didn’t disappoint the hundreds of journalists cramped in the Shangri-La Hotel in Singapore, where Asia’s premier security conference took place last weekend.

He issued a rare rebuke of Beijing, after years of careful attempts to court China and peel it away from its ’no limits’ friendship with Russia.

‘Russia, using Chinese influence on the region, using Chinese diplomats also, does everything to disrupt the peace summit,’ Zelenskyy said Sunday during a press conference, referring to the planned event in Switzerland on June 15-16.

He went on to paint China as Russia’s military backer. ‘We do not expect military support from China. We have never asked them … But we do not expect China to provide defense support to Russia,’ Zelenskyy said.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping ‘promised me China would stand aside, would not support Russia with weapons.

Today, there is intelligence that somehow, some way, some things come to Russia’s markets via China … elements of Russia’s weaponry come from China,’ he added.

Xi ghosts me: ‘Many times we have wanted to meet Chinese representatives,’ including Xi, Zelenskyy said. ’Unfortunately, Ukraine does not have any powerful connections with China because China does not want it.’ Read here for the full story by Zoya, Suzanne and Stuart.

Ukraine plays nice with China no more: Zelenskyy’s unusually harsh stance on Beijing comes shortly after China refused to take part in the Swiss summit. China says it’s impossible for it to go, as Russia’s not invited.

China hit back at Zelenskyy: Beijing, which won’t show up at the Swiss conference, ‘[is] certainly not against the peace summit hosted by Switzerland’, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning told journalists on Monday, in response to Zelenskyy’s criticism.

‘Hegemony and strong-arm politics is not China’s diplomatic style … There is no such thing as exerting pressure on other countries.’ She added that China ‘also values the relationship with Ukraine’.

China in Shangri-La Beijing ain’t here to make friends: while few expected China’s new Defense Minister Adm. Dong Jun to go soft at Shangri-La, many delegates were still surprised at his harsh words on Taiwan and the Philippines, two of the biggest headaches facing China’s policymakers.

Fighting talk: ‘China stays committed to peaceful reunification. However, this prospect is increasingly being eroded by separatists for Taiwan independence and foreign forces,’ Dong said. ‘We will take resolute actions to curb Taiwan independence and make sure such a plot never succeeds.’

U.S. calls for calm: The Chinese military action was worrying enough to prompt U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to urge Dong not to ‘use Taiwan’s political transition — part of a normal, routine democratic process — as a pretext for coercive measures’.

The bilateral meeting also saw Austin make clear ‘that the United States will continue to fly, sail, and operate — safely and responsibly — wherever international law allows.’ He ‘underscored the importance of respect for high seas freedom of navigation guaranteed under international law, especially in the South China Sea’, the Pentagon said in a statement.

Let’s talk: Austin and his Chinese counterpart will launch a bilateral grouping to address potential U.S.-China military crises. The two officials discussed ‘plans to convene a crisis-communications working group by the end of the year’, in their first-ever meeting on Friday. Senior former military officials have warned that the current state of U.S.-China military crisis communications systems are highly unreliable.

EU meets Dong: The new Chinese defense chief met the EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell and French minister of the armed forces Sébastien Lecornu. Borrell told POLITICO he had a ‘robust’ meeting with Dong, saying he raised concerns over Taiwan and circumvention of EU sanctions against Russia.

The French, meanwhile, called on China to do more on nuclear non-proliferation, and discussed with Dong the side-by-side military bases in the East African state of Djibouti, with Paris keen on maintaining communication with Beijing on the activities of the two bases.

Dutch warship: Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren wasn’t pleased with China’s behavior in the South China Sea. Speaking to China Watcher in Singapore, Ollongren said while a Dutch warship passed through the Taiwan Strait uneventfully, a Dutch helicopter was being followed by a Chinese counterpart, despite the airspace being international. ‘That was remarkable,’ she said. ‘We were in international waters, and our helicopter was in the air, but also in the international part.’

Next big problem — Philippines: Apart from Taiwan, China also got furious about the Philippines, whose President Ferdinand ‘Bongbong’ Marcos used an opening speech at Shangri-La to hit out at Beijing’s maritime behavior, warning that the killing of a Filipino citizen in such incidents could be construed as an act of war.

Crossing the Rubicon: ‘We had already suffered injury, but thank God, we have not yet gotten to the point where

any of our participants, civilian or otherwise, have been killed,’ said Marcos. ‘But once we get to that point, certainly we would have crossed the Rubicon. Is that a red line?

Almost certainly it’s going to be a red line.’

Beijing retorts: ‘Those remarks disregard history and facts and are designed to amplify the Philippines’ wrongful position on the issues concerning the South China Sea and deliberately distort and hype up the maritime situation,’ the Chinese Foreign Ministry said in a lengthy response.

The Philippines, it went on, ‘frequently infringed on China’s rights, accusing Manila of provoking the Chinese coast guard.

Looking at you, Washington: ‘Who exactly does the Philippine foreign policy serve now? Whose bidding is the Philippines doing with all these maritime actions?’ the Chinese government statement said. ‘The answer is pretty clear to anyone with sound judgement.’

Commerce chiefs in Europe Trade chiefs back in Europe: Less than two months after a visit to France, China’s Commerce Minister Wang Wentao was back in Europe again, as Beijing makes a lastminute diplomatic charm offensive against the EU’s plan to impose tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. Speaking in Spain on Sunday, Wang threatened to take retaliatory action if the EU were to do so.

‘China takes note of the repeated remarks by the French, German and EU leaders to avoid a trade war,’ Wang said. ‘If the Europeans act differently, and keep suppressing Chinese companies, China will take all necessary measures to firmly safeguard the legitimate interests of Chinese businesses.’

‘The risk of China-EU trade friction is constantly on the rise,’ he added.

What did he see? An EV plant of course! During his Spanish visit, Wang checked out a plant co-run by Spain’s auto company Ebro-EV Motors and China’s Chery Automobile. The plant is one of China’s moves to localize electric vehicle production on European soil. Wang had this message to Chery’s management: Speed up the production line, help contribute to Spain’s economy and employment.

‘Europe should abandon protectionism,’ Wang added.

Deputy in Greece: Vice Commerce Minister Ling Ji meanwhile also spent his weekend in Europe. Inspecting Chinese companies in Greece, Ling had an even tougher message for Europe. ‘Since this year, the EU has disregarded the complementary cooperation between China and EU member states,’ Ling said. ‘China will absolutely not allow the EU to play the old tricks again.’

UK–China MI6 ‘spy’ under arrest: China on Monday accused Britain’s Secret Intelligence Service (MI6) of recruiting a couple who worked for the Beijing government to spy for the U.K., less

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than a month after London arrested three people on suspicion of spying for the Hong Kong government.

The Chinese Ministry of State Security said on its WeChat account that MI6 operatives convinced a man surnamed Wang, who worked in a ‘core confidential role’ in the central state apparatus, to defect along with his wife, surnamed Zhou. AFP has more.

Translating Washington Campbell, Ma meeting readouts evoke yawns: Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell and visiting Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu recited their standard positions on U.S.–China hot button issues in a meeting last week. Campbell raised Biden administration concerns including tensions across the Taiwan Strait, China Coast Guard incursions into Philippine waters of the South China Sea and China’s support for Russia’s war on Ukraine, said a State Department statement published Friday. Ma parried with Beijing’s usual rebuttals to those concerns while criticizing the administration’s China policy of ‘seeking dialogue and cooperation while undermining China’s interests,’ said a Chinese Foreign Ministry readout of the meeting published Friday. Ma spiced up his encounter with Campbell by describing the Biden administration’s ‘small yard and high fence’ strategy behind U.S. restrictions on high technology exports to China as the ‘iron curtain in the big yard.’

New visa restrictions for HK officials: The Biden administration will impose visa restrictions on implicated Hong Kong officials as a reprisal for the guilty verdicts against 14 of the territory’s pro-democracy activists on Thursday. The administration ‘is taking steps to impose new visa restrictions on PRC and Hong Kong officials responsible for implementing the National Security Law’, State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said in a statement Friday. Lawmakers are primed to pile-on. Congress ‘will consider a range of actions to hold the PRC and the Hong Kong government accountable for this grave injustice’, Senate Foreign Relations Committee chair Ben Cardin (D-Md.) said in a statement Friday. Hong Kong authorities aren’t pleased. The visa restrictions ‘smack of despicable political manipulation to intimidate PRC and HKSAR officials who resolutely safeguard national security’, the Hong Kong government said in a statement Saturday.

Rahm roasts China’s Ukraine war narrative: U.S. Ambassador to Japan, Rahm Emanuel, took to social media to rebuke a Chinese military official who blamed Russia’s war on Ukraine on NATO expansion in Europe. ‘China is lipsynching Russia’s excuse for its war with Ukraine by blaming @NATO—the alliance didn’t expand east. Poland, Romania, Lithuania, Latvia, and others expanded West,’ Emanuel said on X on Sunday. That was a response to an assertion by Chinese Snr. Col. Cao Yanzhong at the Shangri-La Dialogue on Saturday that ’The eastern expansion of NATO has led to the Ukraine crisis,’ per the Associated Press.

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©Politico Reprinted with permission

Nikkei Asia 3 June 2024

China vs. U.S., Zelenskyy appears: 5 takeaways from Shangri-La forum High-ranking defense officials and government leaders from around the world made contrasting arguments in working toward regional peace and stability over the weekend in Singapore at the annual Shangri-La Dialogue security summit.

At times, delegates did not see eye-to-eye on a variety of issues, with the event serving as a platform for the U.S. and China to propose differing mechanisms for partnerships and cooperation in the region.

The summit also threw a spotlight on drawn-out tensions and conflicts, from maritime disputes in the South China Sea to Israel’s military campaign in the Gaza Strip, as well as Russia’s ongoing war with Ukraine, amid closed-door meetings involving top military brass as diplomacy was pursued not just on the conference’s stage, but behind the scenes.

Here are five takeaways from the three-day event.

The U.S. and China offer competing visions for regional cooperation The world’s two largest economies presented distinct pathways for regional cooperation at the Shangri-La Dialogue. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Saturday sold America›s vision of a sweeping network of partnerships with countries in the Indo-Pacific.

He described a ‘new convergence’ of stronger and more resilient links in the region not tied to a single alliance or coalition, but ‘overlapping and complementary initiatives and institutions’. Austin emphasized that the U.S. is ‘all-in’ on its commitment to the Indo-Pacific.

His Chinese counterpart, Defense Minister Dong Jun, in contrast, spoke of his country’s ‘five principles of peaceful coexistence’ – mutual respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, mutual non-aggression, non-interference in each other’s internal affairs, equality and mutual benefit, and peaceful coexistence.

‘Our people are against any attempt to turn our countries into vassal states or draw us into bloc confrontations,’ he said. ‘Our people despise those who attempt to bolster themselves by taking orders from hegemonic powers.’

China doubles down on its position on Taiwan Amid ratcheting up of cross-strait tensions in recent weeks as Taiwan welcomed its new President Lai Ching-te from the island›s pro-sovereignty Democratic Progressive Party,

China came out in force to reiterate its stand on the ’One China’ policy – which rules out any separation from the mainland of the territory.

The Communist Party government in Beijing sees Taiwan as its own even though it has not controlled it, with China’s Defense Minister Dong Jun spending half the time of a question-and-answer session he participated in at the Shangri-La Dialogue on Sunday staking his country’s claim on the island.

Dong spoke strongly against Taiwan separatism, talking of ‘resolute actions’ to curb any move toward the island’s independence, while warning of ‘selfdestruction’ for those who dare keep the territory and China apart.

‘We do not know what is “self-destruction”, but usually China does not threaten outside of its zone of influence,’ Cedomir Nestorovic, professor of Geopolitics at ESSEC Business School, told Nikkei Asia. ‘The term is vague, so it is left for interpretation. Still, it is the first time China uses this term.’

U.S. Defense Chief Lloyd Austin expressed concern on Friday over ‘provocative’ activity by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army. The comments came about a week after China conducted large military drills encircling Taiwan and its outlying islands.

Zelenskyy makes surprise visit, accuses China of undermining peace summit In a surprise in-person appearance, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy flew to Singapore to shore up support for a world ‘peace summit’ scheduled for June 15-16 in Switzerland that will focus on nuclear security, food security and humanitarian issues. One hundred six countries and 75 heads of state have confirmed their participation, he said.

‘We need the support of Asian countries,’ Zelenskyy told reporters on Sunday. In particular, Ukraine has been seeking to persuade more of the emerging countries of the so-called Global South to attend, including China, which has said it will not participate without representation from Russia. China is seen as a vital pillar of support for Russian President Vladimir Putin.

But the Ukrainian leader on Sunday accused Beijing of working with Moscow to prevent countries from attending the upcoming forum. Zelenskyy said Russia is using China’s regional influence and its diplomats to disrupt the summit. ‘It is unfortunate that such a big, independent, powerful country as China is an instrument in the hands of Putin,’ he said.

Philippines’ Marcos blasts China, bolsters South China Sea stance Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., who delivered the keynote speech at the forum, blasted China’s ‘illegal, coercive, aggressive, and deceptive actions’ without naming

the country. Responding to a Chinese general’s question, Marcos curtly said that if South China Sea tensions result in the death of a Filipino citizen, it would ‘be close to an act of war.’

His response to the Chinese official’s question raised the stakes, particularly on what incidents could trigger the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty with the U.S. In previous pronouncements, Marcos said the treaty would be invoked if a Filipino serviceman died from a foreign attack.

‘I hope that gives China some pause,’ Julio Amador, CEO of Amador Research Services in Manila, told Nikkei Asia. ‘Because that would mean that what they’re doing will be a trigger to invoking the treaty.’

Filipino officials who attended the forum, including Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro, said in a statement following his Saturday meeting with his U.S. counterpart Lloyd Austin that the U.S. welcomed Marcos’ ‘eloquent’ keynote speech.

Philippine coast guard chief Admiral Ronnie Gavan told reporters he was pleased with Marcos’ speech, noting humanitarian missions to Scarborough Shoal will continue ‘because it is our fundamental duty to defend and protect.’

Indonesia and Malaysia voice concern over Israel-Hamas war Despite being geographically distant from the AsiaPacific, the ongoing Middle East crisis was among the focal points at the Singapore security forum, with defense leaders of the Muslim-majority nations Indonesia and Malaysia voicing concerns over the dire situation in the Gaza Strip.

In a special address on Saturday, Indonesia’s Defense Minister and President-elect Prabowo Subianto said the new proposal from Israel calling for a cease-fire with the Palestinian group Hamas is an ‘important right step’ to end the eight-month war. Indonesia, the world’s most populous Muslim nation, has no formal ties with Israel.

As part of this new proposal, Prabowo vowed Indonesia is ready to contribute ‘significant’ peacekeeping forces to maintain and monitor the prospective cease-fire if needed and requested by the United Nations.

The incoming leader said the Southeast Asian country is also prepared to evacuate and treat up to 1,000 patients from Gaza.

During the final session on Sunday, Malaysian Defense Minister Mohamed Khaled Nordin applauded Prabowo’s remarks, echoing the comments that Kuala Lumpur ‘certainly welcomes and supports any proposal’ that will achieve the immediate and permanent cease-fire.

The Malaysian defense chief concluded his speech by suggesting the annual Singapore defense forum invite a representative from Palestine for future events. ©Nikkei Asia Reprinted with permission

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APPENDIX II

Selected IISS publications

The Strategic Dossier series harnesses the Institute’s technical expertise to present detailed information on key strategic issues. Recent publications include:

Lotje Boswinkel, ‘Forever Bound? Japan’s Road to Self-defence and the US Alliance’, Survival, vol. 66, no. 3, June–July 2024, pp. 105–28.

IISS, Asia-Pacific Regional Security Assessment 2024 (London: IISS, 2024)

Andrew Carr, ‘Australia’s Archipelagic Deterrence’, Survival, vol. 65, no. 4, August–September 2023, pp. 79–100.

IISS, Asia-Pacific Regional Security Assessment 2023 (London: IISS, 2023)

Nick Childs, ‘The AUKUS Anvil: Promise and Peril’, Survival, vol. 65, no. 5, October–November 2023, pp. 7–24.

Survival: Global Politics and Strategy, the Institute’s bimonthly journal, is a leading forum for analysis and debate of international and strategic affairs. Recent articles of interest include:

James Crabtree and Evan A. Laksmana, ‘The Philippines’ Surprising Veer West’, Survival, vol. 65, no. 3, June–July 2023, pp. 81–9.

James Adams, David C. Gompert and Thomas Knudson, ‘From Quad to Quint? Vietnam’s Strategic Potential’, Survival, vol. 66, no. 1, February–March 2024, pp. 57–65.

Toby Dalton and Jina Kim, ‘Rethinking Arms Control with a Nuclear North Korea’, Survival, vol. 65, no. 1, February– March 2023, pp. 21–48.

Jon B. Alterman, ‘The “China Model” in the Middle East’, Survival, vol. 66, no. 2, April–May 2024, pp. 75–98.

Linde Desmaele, ‘US Security Assurances and Nuclear Tripolarity’, Survival, vol. 66, no. 2, April–May 2024, pp. 143–56.

Hans Binnendijk and David C. Gompert, ‘Towards Nuclear Stewardship with China’, Survival, vol. 65, no. 1, February– March 2023, pp. 7–20.

James Dobbins, ‘War With China’, Survival, vol. 65, no. 4, August–September 2023, pp. 221–38. [Originally published in 2012]

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Mathieu Duchâtel, ‘Europe’s China Problem: How Not to Feed Beijing’s Military-Civil Fusion’, Survival, vol. 65, no. 4, August–September 2023, pp. 55–78.

Andrew B. Kennedy, ‘The Resiliency Requirement: Responding to China’s Rise as a Technology Power’, Survival, vol. 65, no. 1, February–March 2023, pp. 115–28.

Lynn Kuok, ‘Asia’s Ukraine Problem’, Survival, vol. 65, no. 2, April–May 2023, pp. 43–51.

Lynn Kuok, ‘China’s Legal Diplomacy’, Survival, vol. 65, no. 6, December 2023–January 2024, pp. 159–78.

Charlie Laderman, ‘Time Is Short: Ukraine, Taiwan and the Echoes of 1941’, Survival, vol. 65, no. 6, December 2023– January 2024, pp. 77–90.

Francis J. Gavin, The Taming of Scarcity and the Problems of Plenty: Rethinking International Relations and American Grand Strategy in a New Era, Adelphi 502–504 (Abingdon: Routledge for the IISS, 2024).

Robert Ward, Yuka Koshino and Matthieu Lebreton (eds), Japan and the IISS: Connecting Western and Japanese Strategic Thought from the Cold War to the War on Ukraine, Adelphi 498– 501 (Abingdon: Routledge for the IISS, 2023).

Iskander Rehman, Planning for Protraction: A Historically Informed Approach to Great-power War and Sino-US Competition, Adelphi 496–497 (Abingdon: Routledge for the IISS, 2023).

Zeno Leoni and Sarah Tzinieris, ‘The Return of Geopolitical Blocs’, Survival, vol. 66, no. 2, April–May 2024, pp. 37–54.

Lawrence Freedman and Heather Williams, Changing the Narrative: Information Campaigns, Strategy and Crisis Escalation in the Digital Age, Adelphi 493–495 (Abingdon: Routledge for the IISS, 2023).

Antoine Levesques, ‘India’s Fraying Restraint’, Survival, vol.

66, no. 2, April–May 2024, pp. 63–71.

Euan Graham, Australia’s Security in China’s Shadow, Adelphi 490–492 (Abingdon: Routledge for the IISS, 2023).

Baocheng Liu and Hilton L. Root, ‘The United States, China and the Dispersal of Power’, Survival, vol. 66, no. 1, February–March 2024, pp. 125–38.

Adam Mount, ‘The US and South Korea: The Trouble with Nuclear Assurance’, Survival, vol. 65, no. 2, April–May 2023, pp. 123–40.

Hanna Notte, ‘Russia, the Global South and the Mechanics of the Nuclear Order’, Survival, vol. 66, no. 3, June–July 2024, pp. 49–57.

Hilton L. Root, ‘Civilisational Conflict’, Survival, vol. 66, no. 3, June–July 2024, pp. 43–8.

Steve Tsang, ‘Getting China Right’, Survival, vol. 65, no. 4, August–September 2023, pp. 43–54.

Robert Ward, ‘A Fragile Convergence: the US–Japan–South Korea Camp David Summit’, Survival, vol. 65, no. 5, October–November 2023, pp. 25–36.

The Military Balance is the Institute’s annual assessment of military capabilities and defence economics worldwide. Region-by-region analyses cover the major military and economic trends and developments affecting security policy and the trade in weapons and other military equipment.

Comprehensive tables portray key data on weapons and defence economics. Defence expenditure trends over a ten-year period are also shown. It builds on the Military Balance+ database that provides updates on data and policy throughout the year.

IISS, The Military Balance 2024 (Abingdon: Routledge for the IISS, 2024) IISS, The Military Balance 2023 (Abingdon: Routledge for the IISS, 2023)

Robert Ward, ‘Another Special Relationship? The United States and Japan’, Survival, vol. 66, no. 3, June–July 2024, pp. 201–12.

The Institute’s research team also publishes free reports and assessments. These extended pieces of analysis are an indispensable resource for those who wish to understand key strategic questions in much greater depth.

James J. Wirtz, ‘The US Navy and the Western Pacific’, Survival, vol. 66, no. 1, February–March 2024, pp. 139–44.

Greg Austin, Quantum Sensing: Comparing the United States and China (London: IISS, 2024).

Lanxin Xiang, ‘Biden’s Misguided China Policy’, Survival, vol.

66, no. 3, June–July 2024, pp. 91–104.

Veerle Nouwens, Timothy Wright, Euan Graham and Blake Herzinger, Long-range Strike Capabilities in the Asia-Pacific: Implications for Regional Stability (London: IISS, 2024).

The Adelphi series is the Institute’s principal contribution to policy-relevant, original academic research. Books published since 2023 include:

Jeffrey Lewis and Kolja Brockmann, Missile Proliferation and Control in the Asia-Pacific Region (London: IISS, 2024).

Aaron Connelly and Shona Loong, New Answers to Old Questions: Myanmar Before and After the 2021 Coup d’État, Adelphi 505–507 (Abingdon: Routledge for the IISS, 2024).

Kai Lin Tay, ASEAN Cyber-security Cooperation: Towards a Regional Emergency-response Framework (London: IISS, 2023).

Simona R. Soare, Pavneet Singh and Meia Nouwens, Softwaredefined Defence: Algorithms at War (London: IISS, 2023).

Selected IISS publications

91

Shiloh Fetzek, Carbon Emissions, Net Zero and Future Forces – Comparative Analysis of Radical Emissions-reductions Plans and Processes for Defence (London: IISS, 2023).

Greg Austin and Natallia Khaniejo, Impact of the Russia–Ukraine War on National Cyber Planning: A Survey of Ten Countries (London: IISS, 2023).

The Armed Conflict Survey is the Institute’s annual review of political, military and humanitarian trends in current conflicts.

‘Shifting threat perceptions on the Korean Peninsula’, Strategic Comments, vol. 29, no. 40, December 2023.

‘India’s defence-industrial partnership with the UK’, Strategic Comments, vol. 29, no. 36, November 2023.

‘The surge of activity in relations between North Korea and Russia’, Strategic Comments, vol. 29, no. 30, October 2023.

‘The first China–Central Asia Summit’, Strategic Comments, vol.

29, no. 29, October 2023.

‘Qin Gang’s disappearance and shifts in party–state relations

IISS, Armed Conflict Survey 2023 (Abingdon: Routledge for the IISS, 2023)

in China’s foreign policymaking’, Strategic Comments, vol.

IISS, Armed Conflict Survey 2024 (Abingdon: Routledge for the IISS, 2024)

‘Emerging security challenges on the island of Borneo’, Strategic

29, no. 27, September 2023.

Comments, vol. 29, no. 25, September 2023.

‘Technology trade controls and US–China competition’, Strategic Comments, vol. 29, no. 23, August 2023.

Strategic Comments is the Institute’s online source of analysis of international security and politicomilitary issues. Articles on the Indo-Pacific region published in 2023–24 include:

‘Cambodia’s political succession and the next govern-

‘US summitry with Japan and the Philippines’, Strategic Comments, vol. 30, no. 13, May 2024.

‘A progressive victory in Thailand’s 2023 general election’,

‘Developments in South Korea’s defence industry’, Strategic Comments, vol. 30, no. 9, April 2024.

‘Australia’s 2023 Defence Strategic Review’, Strategic Comments,

‘The tit-for-tat conflict between Iran and Pakistan’, Strategic Comments, vol. 30, no. 4, March 2024.

‘Vietnam: leadership turnover and foreign-policy implica-

‘The launch of the first agreement under the US Indo-Pacific Economic Framework’, Strategic Comments, vol. 30, no. 3, February 2024.

‘The state of China–Russia cooperation over natural gas’,

‘The challenge to Islamabad from the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan’, Strategic Comments, vol. 30, no. 1, January 2024.

92

The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

ment’s external policies’, Strategic Comments, vol. 29, no.

17, July 2023.

Strategic Comments, vol. 29, no. 12, June 2023. vol. 29, no. 9, May 2023. tions’, Strategic Comments, vol. 29, no. 5, March 2023.

Strategic Comments, vol. 29, no. 4, February 2023.

‘Japan’s new national-security and defence strategies’, Strategic Comments, vol. 29, no. 1, January 2023.