IISS Shangri La Dialogue 2024

THE INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES

21ST ASIA SECURITY SUMMIT

SINGAPORE, 31 MAY–2 JUNE 2024

Shangri-La Dialogue

THE INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES

21ST ASIA SECURITY SUMMIT

SINGAPORE, 31 MAY–2 JUNE 2024

IISS

Shangri-La Dialogue

The International Institute for Strategic Studies

Arundel House | 6 Temple Place | London | wc2r 2pg | UK

www.iiss.org

© December 2024 The International Institute for Strategic Studies

Executive Chairman: Sir John Chipman KCMG

Director-General and Chief Executive: Dr Bastian Giegerich

Editor: Veerle Nouwens

Contributors: Nick Childs, Aaron Connelly, Paul Fraioli, Nigel Gould-Davies, James Hackett, Emile Hokayem, Antoine Levesques, Fenella McGerty, Morgan Michaels, Meia Nouwens, John Raine, Virpratap Vikram Singh, Robert Ward

Editorial: Alice Aveson, Christopher Harder, Gráinne Lucey-Tremblay

Production and Design: Alessandra Beluffi, Ravi Gopar, Charlotte Gurr, James Lemon, Jade Panganiban, James Parker, Kelly Verity, Jill Williams

Printed and bound in Great Britain by Hobbs the Printers Ltd, Hampshire.

The International Institute for Strategic Studies is an independent centre for research, information and debate on the problems of conflict, however caused, that have, or potentially have, an important military content. The Council and Staff of the Institute are international and its membership is drawn from over 90 countries. The Institute is independent and it alone decides what activities to conduct. It owes no allegiance to any government, any group of governments or any political or other organisation. The IISS stresses rigorous research with a forward-looking policy orientation and places particular emphasis on bringing new perspectives to the strategic debate.

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the Institute.

Chapter

The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) held its 21st annual Shangri-La Dialogue (SLD) in Singapore from 31 May to 2 June 2024. We are pleased to present this report detailing the Dialogue’s on-therecord proceedings, including all plenary and special sessions, as well as the discussions of the Southeast Asian Young Leaders’ Programme (SEAYLP).

For over two decades, the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue has offered a platform for dialogue amongst defence ministers and officials, senior military officials and other distinguished delegates from national security establishments on the pressing issues in the AsiaPacific. These public engagements are complemented by defence diplomacy in action through the wealth of private bilateral and multilateral defence meetings that take place at the Dialogue and in many cases advance and prepare concrete initiatives of these governments.

Intensifying great-power competition, the use of tactics below the threshold of armed conflict, and the interlinkages of conflict and security across regions shaped the strategic environment over the past year. In his keynote address, President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr of the Philippines underscored the enduring importance of international law as the cornerstone of equality amongst nations in this turbulent juncture in history.

In addition to seven plenary sessions, this year’s Dialogue included six live-streamed special sessions, featuring defence ministers and senior military leaders, which spanned an array of focused deliberations on topics ranging from artificial intelligence, cyber defence and future warfare to deterrence and reassurance in the Asia-Pacific. Reflecting the region’s contemporary maritime challenges, the Dialogue included for the first time a dedicated special session on maritime law enforcement, featuring the heads of coast guards and the maritime security agencies of four nations.

The 2024 Dialogue received four heads of state from within and outside the region. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy delivered a powerful in-person

plenary address on the need for new solutions for global security. We welcomed 581 delegates, including 32 government ministers, 25 chiefs of defence and five national security advisers. The Dialogue was attended by 50 national delegations and three international organisations. Hundreds of government meetings took place on the sidelines of the Dialogue, of which the IISS facilitated over 90. We also welcomed 40 SEAYLP delegates from 21 countries in the Asia-Pacific and beyond who actively engaged in the Dialogue’s public sessions and organised discussions with senior officials.

As ever, the IISS is grateful to the Singapore government for its support for the SLD process. This includes the annual IISS Shangri-La Dialogue Sherpa Meeting, which will next convene from 19 to 21 January 2025.

We would like to thank the following lead commercial sponsors for their financial support for the Dialogue: Airbus, BAE Systems, Boeing, Space & Security, Lockheed Martin, RTX and Saab. We also extend thanks to principal sponsors Amazon Web Services, Babcock International Group, Google, Northrop Grumman, Oracle, Palantir and Rolls Royce, as well as prime sponsors Accenture, Anduril and EDGE Group and main sponsors Asahi Shimbun, Maxar Intelligence, Rohde & Schwarz and ST Engineering. The Shangri-La Hotel generously sponsored the Dialogue’s opening dinner.

The IISS looks forward to further developing these partnerships, and making new ones, with the shared aspiration of advancing regional security dialogue and cooperation through the Shangri-La Dialogue process. We look forward to welcoming delegates to Singapore for the 22nd IISS Shangri-La Dialogue from 30 May to 1 June 2025.

Dr Bastian Giegerich, IISS Director-General and Chief Executive Veerle Nouwens, IISS–Asia Executive Director

INTRODUCTION

The 21st IISS Shangri-La Dialogue convened amidst a continued deterioration of the security situation in Europe and the Middle East and apprehension that geopolitical rivalry could spark conflict in the Asia-Pacific as well. An impassioned keynote address opening the summit by the president of the Philippines, Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr, highlighted the risks. Marcos warned that the rules-based order in Asia required reaffirmation by the countries of the region rather than revision – and outlined the Philippine efforts in that regard. Yet in response to questions from delegates, the president warned about the risks of crossing the Philippines’ red lines. The death of a Filipino citizen by a ‘wilful act’, he said, could be considered an ‘act of war’.

Russia’s illegal war of aggression in Ukraine took centre stage when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy addressed the seventh plenary session. His arrival at the Shangri-La Hotel, where he was welcomed by IISS Director-General and Chief Executive Dr Bastian Giegerich, came two years after he delivered a special address to the 19th Dialogue by video from Kyiv. His appearance showed the enduring relevance of the Shangri-La Dialogue as a forum for discussion of Asia’s role in the world’s most pressing security challenges. On his second visit to Asia since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022, Zelenskyy made the case for Ukraine’s importance to the Asia-Pacific, and he argued for Asian countries to participate in a peace summit that took place in Switzerland later in June.

AN EXPANDED AGENDA

The Shangri-La Dialogue remains the only annual meeting to bring together defence ministers, chiefs of defence forces and leaders of defence civil-service organisations

from the most important countries in the Asia-Pacific and beyond. Moreover, it is unique in the way that it brings experts, industry and media into the room for discussions in plenary and special sessions.

As in years past, the IISS worked to make sure that the Dialogue remained an open and inclusive forum for regional discussion, providing a useful platform for participants regardless of regional or geopolitical positions. The Dialogue served as a mechanism for transparency, inviting governments to outline their defence policies and highlight immediate security concerns. The SLD also maintained its role as a forum where defence leaders could develop new channels of communication and cooperation through bilateral and other meetings, including a marked increase in the number of minilateral gatherings on the sidelines of the Dialogue. Notably, American and Chinese defence ministers met in person for the first time in 18 months.

This year’s Dialogue featured a special address by Indonesian president-elect and Defence Minister General (Retd) Prabowo Subianto. His speech took place in addition to the traditional keynote address and seven themed plenary sessions, which provided defence ministers the opportunity to speak to fellow security decision-makers as well as select analysts, business leaders and journalists. As in 2023, the IISS also held a series of six special sessions, where delegates met in a roundtable format to discuss specific issues of pressing concern in greater depth. Finally, the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue Southeast Asian Young Leaders’ Programme convened for the seventh time, and the 40 young leaders from around the region played a full part in the Dialogue itself.

While the IISS conventionally does not set an overarching theme for the summit, several themes emerged from speeches and discussions. Marcos

discussed tensions between the Philippines and China over Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea obliquely in his keynote address, and then more directly during the question-and-answer session. The following morning, United States Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III was asked whether he also held that a wilful act which resulted in the death of a Filipino citizen would trigger the United States’ obligations to the Philippines under their 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty. Although Austin declined to answer the question, concerns that an incident in the South China Sea could escalate into great-power conflict between the US and China pervaded conversations throughout the remainder of the Dialogue.

Another flashpoint which received considerable attention was the Taiwan Strait. Chinese Minister of National Defense Admiral Dong Jun focused on Taiwan in his response to questions from the floor, and like his predecessors used strong language against those in Taiwan he alleged were seeking independence and those outside Taiwan he said were urging them on. Many of his counterparts urged both sides to act with restraint and seek a diplomatic solution, with Singapore Defence Minister Dr Ng Eng Hen warning that neither Asia nor the world could withstand ‘a third geopolitical shock’.

Another theme, raised by both speakers from the rostrum and delegates from the floor, revealed

concern over the integrity of the rules-based international order. Some, like Marcos, sought to rally leaders in attendance to defend it. Others questioned its legitimacy given suggested inconsistencies in the international response to crises in Gaza, Myanmar and even New Caledonia. Delegates from countries of the Global South asked speakers whether the West had not engaged in a double standard, upholding the rules-based order in Ukraine while failing to do so in Gaza amid Israel’s war against Hamas.

The Dialogue’s special sessions covered a range of additional subjects, including how to fine-tune strategies of deterrence and reassurance; defence cooperation and small-state security; opportunities for diplomacy in the Myanmar conflict; maritime law enforcement and confidence-building measures; the future of warfare amid technological change including advances in artificial intelligence; and the challenges of coordinating global humanitarian operations.

ENHANCED PARTICIPATION

The 21st SLD featured the highest-level slate of speakers in the Dialogue’s history. While there were 571 delegates in 2023, there were 581 this year. As in prior years, more than half were senior officials and officers from 50 participating governments and three intergovernmental organisations. These included senior

(From left) Judith Collins, Minister of Defence, New Zealand; Pio Tikoduadua, Minister for Home Affairs and Immigration, Fiji; Heng Chee How, Senior Minister of State for Defence, Singapore

(From left) Maj Gen Salman Al-Harbi, Undersecretary of the Ministry of Defense for Strategic Affairs, Saudi Arabia; Heidi Grant, former director of the Defense Security Cooperation Agency, US; Dr Charles Woodburn, Group Chief Executive Officer of BAE Systems, UK

officials from many countries around the Asia-Pacific traditionally represented at the Dialogue – but also from a growing number of governments in Europe and the Middle East, which recognise the weight that Asian positions carry on issues of concern to them.

Although the Dialogue is traditionally a forum for defence ministers, the inclusion of multiple heads of state or government is a recent evolution of the format. The appearance at this year’s Dialogue, in addition to Marcos and Zelenskyy, of Dr José Ramos-Horta, President of Timor-Leste, and Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė of Lithuania – not to mention General Prabowo and four deputy prime ministers – elevated discussions to the level of national leadership to a greater extent than in previous years.

The Dialogue retained a strong core of participation from defence ministers, with 32 cabinet ministers represented, along with 25 chiefs of defence forces, and five national security advisers. Many were relatively new in post and attending their first Shangri-La Dialogue, including the following: Admiral Dong; Japanese Defense Minister Kihara Minoru; South Korean Defense Minister Shin Won-sik; Cambodian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for National Defence General Tea Seiha; Thai Defence Minister Sutin Klungsang; New Zealand Defence Minister Judith Collins; Canadian Minister of National Defence Bill Blair; and Malaysian Defence Minister Dato’ Seri Mohamed Khaled bin Nordin. This provided a useful opportunity to meet many counterparts for the first time.

In total, the IISS facilitated 91 bilateral meetings at the Dialogue, but it understands that many more took place on the sidelines of sessions without the

Institute’s assistance. Some, such as that between Austin and Admiral Dong, will have an appreciable effect on the international relations of the region. Others, such as that between General Prabowo and Dr Ramos-Horta show the value of diplomacy between senior leaders. The two, General Prabowo told delegates, ‘were walking hand in hand’ the previous day, an unthinkable outcome when Timor was fighting for its independence from Indonesia a quarter-century ago.

The Dialogue is primarily a ‘Track One’ meeting, where speaking roles are reserved for government officials. But the Dialogue also welcomes many high-level non-government participants each year, including senior business figures, analysts and journalists. The SLD played host to more than 300 journalists. The gender balance among experts and researchers who accepted the invitation of the IISS to participate in this year’s Dialogue was approximately 60% male and 40% female, in line with the previous year.

LOOKING AHEAD

The IISS looks forward to building upon the success of this year’s Dialogue. We are already moving toward organising the 22nd Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore from 30 May to 1 June 2025. In preparation, from 19 to 21 January 2025, we will hold the 13th Shangri-La Dialogue Sherpa Meeting, which will convene in Singapore senior defence officials and military officers from participating countries to discuss the region’s developing security issues and shape the agenda for the next Dialogue.

CHAPTER 1

KEYNOTE ADDRESS Friday 31 May 2024, 20:00

SPEAKER

Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr President, Philippines

Keynote address

Philippines President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr began by setting out the ways that international law underpins Philippine sovereignty. In particular, the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) enshrined the principle of archipelagic unity that defined the internal waters of states. It also established the extent and limits of states’ maritime zones. The Philippines, he told the audience, has aligned its domestic laws and constitution with its international legal rights.

By contrast, he said, some actors sought to pursue excessive and baseless claims through force, intimidation and deception. Marcos noted the importance of the 2016 arbitral award supporting the Philippines’ maritime claims in the West Philippine Sea. He underscored his country’s absolute commitment to protecting its sovereignty and upholding the rule of law.

Against the background of growing threats to the international rules-based order, Marcos identified seven issues shaping the Indo-Pacific region: firstly, the aspirations of states in the region, which were

threatened by weakening international norms; secondly, strategic competition between the United States and China, and its impact on regional states’ security choices and dilemmas; thirdly, the centrality and unity of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN); fourthly, the role of bridge-builders in forging multilateral solutions; fifthly, access to the global commons of sea, space and science for development; sixthly, the urgent challenge of climate change; seventhly, the disruptive and transformative impact of advanced technologies.

To address these challenges, Marcos called for reaffirmation rather than revision of the regional order based on the agreements that created the UN, ASEAN and UNCLOS. These enshrined principles of the sovereign equality of states, ASEAN centrality, international law and multilateralism, rather than the use of force, major-power rivalry and spheres of interest. He argued that China’s influence is a permanent security and economic fact, and that the US is a stabilising presence. Regional stability requires that they manage

Ferdinand R Marcos Jr, President, Philippines

their relationship responsibly, especially in the nuclear domain. Nuclear risk-reduction and disarmament, he told delegates, are increasingly Asia-Pacific, not just Euro-Atlantic, issues.

On the most urgent issues affecting economic security in the region, Marcos called for maritime differences in the East China Sea and South China Sea to be resolved according to international law based on UNCLOS. Regional stability also requires, in the Taiwan Strait, mutual restraint and, on the Korean peninsula, North Korean fulfilment of its obligations under United Nations Security Council resolutions and to commit to peaceful and constructive dialogue with South Korea.

Marcos outlined the Philippines’ plans to strengthen its alliance with the US, as well as strategic partnerships and multilateral cooperation with a wide range of Indo-Pacific states. The most recent achievement was the adoption, with Japan and the US, of a Joint Vision Statement. Middle powers have a key leadership role to play in transcending geopolitical divisions through multilateral diplomacy. Marcos drew attention to the Philippines’ activity on a wide range of issues, including climate change, biodiversity, cyberspace, lethal autonomous weapons systems, nuclear non-proliferation and a maritime code of conduct. He said the Philippines would use its role as a trusted partner and bridge-builder during its 2027–28 Security Council term to advance these and other agendas.

QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS

Major General Xu Hui, the President of the International College of Defense Studies at the National Defense University of China, asked Marcos to comment on the proposition that recent Philippine actions did not consider other parties’ comfort levels and jeopardised regional peace. Marcos reaffirmed the Philippines’ commitment to ASEAN centrality and its principles. He argued these are more relevant than ever, given the complex and interdependent nature of geopolitics. He said there are arguably no purely regional issues now.

Demetri Sevastopulo , US–China Correspondent for the Financial Times , asked whether the killing of a

Sir John Chipman KCMG, IISS Executive Chairman

Major General Xu Hui, President of the International College of Defense Studies at the National Defense University of China

Filipino sailor by Chinese coastguard water cannons would cross a red line. He also asked what actions would cause the Philippines to invoke its Mutual Defense Treaty with the US. Marcos replied that the death of a Filipino citizen by a wilful act would be ‘very, very close’ to an act of war that would ‘almost certainly’ cross a red line. The Philippines would respond accordingly. Its treaty partners, he said, hold the same standard when deciding to undertake joint action.

Justin Baquisal, a SEAYLP delegate and Resident National Security Analyst at FACTS Asia, asked what specific force posture packages were expected in the coming years, and what would follow the modernisation programme of the Armed Forces of the Philippines. Marcos referred to the just-completed Horizon 3 acquisition military programme. The country was now finding suppliers for its military requirements. Marcos emphasised the importance of deterrence through building long-term civil and military capabilities.

Justin Baquisal, SEAYLP delegate and Resident National Security Analyst, FACTS Asia

Demetri Sevastopulo, US–China Correspondent, Financial Times

CHAPTER 2

United States’ strategic partnerships in the Indo-Pacific

FIRST PLENARY SESSION Saturday 1 June 2024, 08:35

SPEAKER

Lloyd J. Austin III

Secretary of Defense, United States

FIRST PLENARY SESSION

United States’ strategic partnerships in the Indo-Pacific

US Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III in his opening remarks welcomed the ‘frank discussion’ that he had at the Dialogue with Admiral Dong Jun, Minister of National Defense for China, in their first face-to-face meeting. Austin reiterated the point he made at last year’s Shangri-La Dialogue that ‘the right time for defence leaders to talk is any time and every time’. According to Austin, there is no substitute for direct military-to-military talks between senior leaders and for open lines of communication to avoid misunderstanding and miscalculations. He said, ‘Dialogue is not a reward. It is a necessity.’ He welcomed future talks with the PRC.

At the same time, Austin reiterated that American engagement with the region is strong and would continue because the Indo-Pacific will shape the course of this century. ‘We are all in, and we are not going anywhere.’ Austin highlighted threats to the global security landscape ranging from climate change, pan-

demic disease, nuclear dangers, terrorism and turmoil in the Middle East to Russia’s ‘reckless’ war in Ukraine as well as actions in the Indo-Pacific that erode stability. But he countered that a new convergence amongst like-minded states around nearly all aspects of security in the Indo-Pacific would produce a ‘stronger, more resilient and capable network of partnerships’. This network, Austin told delegates, was unique to this region – a set of overlapping and complementary initiatives and institutions, rather than a single alliance, and a move away from the traditional huband-spokes model of American security architecture in Asia. Austin said the convergence he spoke of is centred on common principles: respect for sovereignty and international law; the free flow of commerce and ideas; freedom of the seas and skies; openness, transparency and accountability; equal dignity for every person; and the peaceful resolution of disputes through dialogue instead of coercion or conflict.

Lloyd J Austin III, Secretary of Defense, US

Austin pointed out that Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine provides a vision of the world ‘none of us would want’, where the aforementioned principles have been violated. However, he found that the war in Ukraine has provided an impetus to other countries to rally together to help the victims of aggression. Austin referenced Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio’s recent visit to the US, in which he said countries must resolutely defend and strengthen a free and open international order based on the rule of law.

Austin said that, despite significant destabilising activity in Europe and the Middle East, the Indo-Pacific remains the priority theatre of operations for the US, with significant resources invested in the region over the last three years aimed at ensuring stability. Austin raised key examples of defence-industrial integration, including the development of a Glide Phase Interceptor with Japan and progress on the co-production of fighter-jet engines and armoured vehicles with India. He also highlighted work with the Philippines to improve maritime domain awareness in the South China Sea, as well as cooperation with the Quad through the Indo-Pacific Partnership for Maritime Domain Awareness.

Austin concluded that strong leadership is needed to sustain progress made so far, commending the trilateral partnership that has emerged between the US, Japan and South Korea, as well as the leadership

Lloyd J Austin III, Secretary of Defense, US; and Dr Bastian Giegerich, DirectorGeneral and Chief Executive, IISS

shown by Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam in resolving long-standing maritime-boundary disputes.

QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS

Dr Chung Min Lee, IISS Chairman of the Advisory Council and Trustee, asked about US and South Korean relations and the prospect of US support for Korean development of nuclear-powered submarines for the ROK Navy. Austin responded that the AUKUS initiative undertaken with Australia and the UK will assist in providing stability and security in the region. However, this is a generational investment and it was ‘highly doubtful’ that the US could take on another initiative of this type in the near future. Austin reiterated that South Korea is a strong ally for the US, and he highlighted the trilateral partnership emerging with Japan as a positive endeavour.

Ivan Watson, Senior International Correspondent for CNN, asked whether the US would interpret death at sea as an act of war in the context of ongoing tensions between the Philippines and China in the South China Sea, and whether such a development would invoke the Mutual Defense Treaty. Austin said US commitment to the Mutual Defense Treaty is ‘ironclad’, and pointed to increasing efforts to develop dialogue to ensure such a scenario does not arise.

Senior Colonel Cao Yanzhong, Research Fellow for the Research Department at the Academy of

Military Sciences of China, asked whether the US is planning to build a NATO-like alliance system in the Asia-Pacific region. Austin responded that rather than creating a NATO-like alliance, the aim is to cooperate and strengthen relationships with like-minded countries with similar values and a common vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific.

Professor Dewi Fortuna Anwar, Research Professor at the National Research and Innovation Agency of Indonesia, asked about the state of US–China relations, particularly in light of strategic competition between the two countries. Austin reiterated that the

US relationship with China is based on competition but should not become contentious. As such, open dialogue is necessary to address issues. As well as engaging in dialogue with China, the US will continue work with other countries in the region, such as the Philippines, to address their concerns regarding access to their economic zones. Austin said conflict with China is neither imminent nor unavoidable, but that leaders of greatpower nations need to ensure that everything is done to minimise miscalculation and misunderstandings. Austin conceded that conversations will at times be difficult, but it is crucial to have them.

Dr Chung Min Lee, Chairman of the Advisory Council and Trustee, IISS

Senior Colonel Cao Yanzhong, Research Fellow for the Research Department at the Academy of Military Sciences, China

Ivan Watson, Senior International Correspondent, CNN

Professor Dewi Fortuna Anwar, Research Professor at the National Research and Innovation Agency, Indonesia

CHAPTER 3

Enhancing crisis management amid rising competition

SECOND PLENARY SESSION

Saturday 1 June 2024, 09:30

SPEAKERS

Dr José Ramos-Horta, President, Timor-Leste

Sébastien Lecornu, Minister of the Armed Forces, France

Shin Won-sik, Minister of National Defense, Republic of Korea

SECOND PLENARY SESSION

Enhancing crisis management amid rising competition

Dr José Ramos-Horta, President, Timor-Leste

Dr José Ramos-Horta, President of Timor-Leste, opened the session by noting that, while his own country was now at peace, he spoke as a long-time observer of regional and international crises. He noted the importance of the shared crisis of the ‘desecration of Mother Earth’. In reference to rising tensions in the South China Sea, he said consultations on the Code of Conduct should be intensified to help generate the trust required to make the sea a ‘zone of peace and fraternity’. He questioned the consequences of the increased US military presence, drawing comparison with the consequences which he saw of NATO’s expansion eastwards towards Russia. He noted the tendency of states to overestimate their own capabilities or underestimate those of adversaries. He called for more dialogue and transparency. Where conflicts are hot, in particular in Gaza, all parties including Iran should desist to allow for humanitarian relief and reflection on how the conflict can be ended.

Sébastien Lecornu, French Minister of the Armed Forces, noted that France is immediately concerned with crisis management as it prepares to host the Olympic Games, and it is important that nothing be done to hinder existing efforts to manage threats. He identified three challenges in crisis management. The first is the selfishness of narrow nationalisms. The global security system was designed in a post-conflict period when much less was asked of it, given the increase in conflicts and threats. States must not, he argued, put selfish considerations before preserving, for example, the European political project or intervening in humanitarian disasters such as the recent landslide in Papua New Guinea. This would make the mechanism more sustainable for the future.

Secondly, he argued, selfishness should not become a strategy. Partnerships should not be abandoned, and France is relying on partnerships in its counter-terrorism work ahead of the Olympics. It was

criticised for reaching out to Russia after the Crocus Hall attack in Moscow, he said, but it decided to share intelligence with Russia to assist their investigation. Elsewhere, such challenges as illegal fishing and organised crime also require partnerships. Technological advances should be shared and states should not hinder partnerships developing.

Lastly, he told delegates, states should avoid creating blocs. France, as a Pacific country, does not see blocs as the answer to the region’s problems. Existing multilateral structures should be used to support the universal application of international humanitarian law and to avoid double standards. A special responsibility lies with nuclear powers to avoid proliferation, and he regretted the lack of effective arms control activity in the region.

Shin Won-sik, South Korean Defense Minister, noted the intensification of strategic competition in the Asia-Pacific. He said North Korea continues to develop its nuclear capabilities and has conducted 12 missile launches this year. It poses, he said, an existential threat to South Korea. Moreover, by prioritising expenditure on its nuclear programme, the regime is aggravating the human-rights crisis among its own population. The minister told delegates that all crises arose from dictatorships. Russia is using North Korean weapons in Ukraine and the funds North Korea receives in return will be spent on its nuclear programme. He

called for universal condemnation of North Korea’s failure to abide by UN Security Council resolutions. He noted the irresponsibility of the North Korean government’s conduct, citing their recent decision to send balloons carrying waste into South Korea in retaliation for the balloons carrying food sent by Seoul. The UN, to which South Korea owed its foundation, is critical to security in the region, he said. He added the rulesbased international order must be protected from the use of force, and he noted his concern that peaceful resolution is lately losing out to force.

QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS

Chung Min Lee, IISS Chairman of the Advisory Council and Trustee, asked whether the law in South Korea should be changed to allow it to export weapons to Ukraine, and whether the time had come for South Korea to consider acquiring its own nuclear capability. Shin said changing the law on exports would require a national consensus. On the second question, he said Seoul would not go down that road because it continues to place its trust in its alliance with the United States and the international nuclear non-proliferation regime.

Bonnie Glaser, Managing Director of the IndoPacific program at the German Marshall Fund, asked what positive measure the panel would like to see

Sébastien Lecornu, Minister of the Armed Forces, France

from China to promote denuclearisation. Shin called for China to play a more proactive role in denuclearisation and regretted the absence of any reference to denuclearisation in recent ASEAN communiqués. In reference to a related question, he also noted grave concern over tripartite cooperation between China, North Korea and Russia and the potential consequences thereof.

Nigel Gould-Davies, IISS Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia, asked how North Korea is benefiting from supplying Russia with military equipment and ammunition. Maeda Tadashi, Chairman of the Board, Japan Bank for International Cooperation, asked the

panel members for their views on Russia–North Korea nuclear cooperation. Shin noted that 10,000 containers have been exchanged between the two countries and North Korea has received food and military technology which could significantly enhance its capabilities. The US and South Korea are working on countermeasures. Darshana Baruah, nonresident scholar with the South Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, asked about next steps on New Caledonia given divergent views between France and states in the region. Lecornu said New Caledonia is in a post-colonial state. The French government has honoured its undertakings in the decolonisation plan

Shin Won-sik, Defense Minister, Republic of Korea

Chung Min Lee, Chairman of the Advisory Council and Trustee, IISS

Nigel Gould-Davies, Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia, IISS

Bonnie Glaser, Managing Director of the Indo-Pacific program at the German Marshall Fund, US

Maeda Tadashi, Chairman of the Board, Japan Bank for International Cooperation

of the 1990s and held three referenda in which New Caledonia had rejected independence. He said that the violence currently seen in New Caledonia was in part driven by ‘a young generation that is bored, that has problems with drugs, with alcohol’. They were sometimes also being manipulated by other countries ‘who are hidden in the world’, he said, and he called for these actions to be condemned.

Lieutenant Colonel Ki Mankhout, a SEAYLP delegate and Assistant and Advisor to the Permanent Secretary of State for the Ministry of National Defence

of Cambodia, asked whether joining ASEAN would still offer an upside for Timor-Leste. Dr Bich Tran, Postdoctoral Fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, asked how Timor-Leste would have the capacity to attend the many ASEAN meetings convened each year. Dr Ramos-Horta described ASEAN as one of the most successful multilateral organisations in the world. He noted that Timor-Leste has shown the capacity to meet its representative duties in other multilateral organisations, and he was confident that it could do so in ASEAN.

Lieutenant Colonel Ki Mankhout, SEAYLP delegate, Assistant, Advisor to the Permanent Secretary of State for the Ministry of National Defence, Cambodia

Darshana Baruah, nonresident scholar with the South Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Dr Bich Tran, Postdoctoral Fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy

CHAPTER 4

Building cooperative security in the Asia-Pacific

THIRD PLENARY SESSION

Saturday 1 June 2024, 11:30

SPEAKERS

General Tea Seiha

Deputy Prime Minister; Minister of National Defense, Cambodia

Richard Marles

Deputy Prime Minister; Minister for Defence, Australia

Josep Borrell Fontelles

High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy; Vice-President of the European Commission, European Union

THIRD PLENARY SESSION

Building cooperative security in the Asia-Pacific

General Tea Seiha, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Defence of Cambodia, opened the session by emphasising the turbulent security landscape in the Asia-Pacific. He highlighted the rise of interdependence, but also unintentional conflicts and security concerns from traditional geopolitical competition to non-traditional threats including climate change and human trafficking. He advocated for cooperative security and multilateralism, particularly through ASEAN, which Cambodia views as pivotal in promoting peace, development and prosperity. General Tea Seiha underscored ASEAN’s approach to resolving issues, including South China Sea disputes and the situation in Myanmar, through dialogue and consultation. He recounted Cambodia’s contributions to ASEAN, including initiatives on pandemic cooperation, support for women peacekeepers, and

defence-education collaborations. Additionally, he highlighted Cambodia’s commitment to UN peacekeeping, mentioning the deployment of over 9,500 peacekeepers since 2006. General Tea Seiha stressed the importance of respecting the sovereignty and independence of smaller states and reaffirmed Cambodia’s commitment to a rules-based international order.

Richard Marles, Australia’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Defence, discussed the new era of strategic competition reshaping the Indo-Pacific, stressing the importance of the global rules-based order. He highlighted recent conflicts, including the Israel–Hamas conflict and Russia’s war against Ukraine, as significant threats to global stability. Marles called for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire and hostage release in Gaza. He emphasised the need to uphold international law universally and for

General Tea Seiha, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Defence, Cambodia

collective deterrence to maintain a sustainable balance of power in the Indo-Pacific. Australia’s defence strategy calls for nearly doubling its defence spending in the coming decade, to reach roughly 2.4% of GDP, and deepening alliances with countries including India, Japan and the US. Marles also advocated for strengthening ASEAN’s role and developing new multilateral frameworks to enhance regional security. He called for clear communication and strategic reassurance to prevent conflicts and ensure a stable and prosperous region.

Josep Borrell Fontelles, High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice-President of the European Commission of the European Union, underscored the strategic and economic interdependence between Europe and the Indo-Pacific. He highlighted the region’s importance to European commerce and security – 40% of trade involving Europe crosses the South China Sea. He also noted the challenges posed by China’s ‘no limits’ partnership with Russia and the military support that North Korea is providing to Russia in its war against Ukraine. Borrell stressed the EU’s commitment to security based on international law and the UN Charter, and its role as a credible partner in the region. He outlined the EU’s strategic initiatives, including partnerships in

cyber security, maritime security and counter-terrorism. Borrell called for consistency in upholding international law and avoiding double standards, particularly in relation to Gaza. He emphasised the importance of learning from Asia’s innovation and working together to build a cooperative security framework, thereby enhancing mutual security and prosperity.

QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS

Josh Rogin, opinion columnist at the Washington Post, asked the panel about China’s support for Russia’s armed forces and whether the EU plans to sanction China. Borrell said the EU does not have evidence of China supplying arms to Russia and that the bloc remains vigilant regarding dual-use goods and economic relationships that might circumvent sanctions. Some Chinese firms have faced restrictions, and the EU continues to monitor the situation and urges China to use its influence to push Russia to cease its aggression in Ukraine.

Jennifer Parker, a SEAYLP delegate and Expert Associate at the National Security College of the Australian National University, asked about Cambodia’s

Richard Marles, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Defence, Australia

Josep Borrell Fontelles, High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice-President of the European Commission, EU

and ASEAN’s stances on China’s ‘nine-dash line’ in the South China Sea. General Tea Seiha reiterated that Cambodia supports international law and ASEAN’s consultative approach to these issues. He emphasised the importance of dialogue in resolving issues and highlighted ASEAN’s role in finding balanced solutions to regional disputes.

Dr Jimbo Ken, Professor of the Faculty of Policy Management at Keio University in Japan, asked about a future Chinese military presence at Ream Naval Base in Cambodia. General Tea Seiha said Cambodia does not and will not allow any foreign military bases on its territory, emphasising that military exercises and assistance from China are only for training and modernisation. He reiterated Cambodia’s commitment to transparency and international cooperation.

Fenella McGerty, IISS Senior Fellow for Defence Economics, asked the panel about opportunities and challenges in defence-industrial collaboration. Marles acknowledged the balance between collaboration and competition in the defence industry. He stressed the importance of competitive tendering to ensure value for money while fostering joint ventures and partnerships to enhance Australia’s defence capabilities.

Nick Childs , IISS Senior Fellow for Naval Forces and Maritime Security, asked Marles about the future of AUKUS and its openness and inclusivity. Marles explained that while AUKUS Pillar 1 focuses on Australia’s acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines, Pillar 2 involves collaboration on innovative military technologies. Expansion to other countries such as Japan will depend on the maturity of existing collaborations among Australia, the UK and the US.

Antoine Levesques, IISS Research Fellow for South and Central Asian Defence, Strategy and Diplomacy, asked Borrell about the effect of the European Defence Industrial Strategy on partnerships in the Indo-Pacific. Borrell highlighted the need for Europe to enhance its defence-industrial base and technological capabilities, which would strengthen partnerships in the Indo-Pacific by providing better support and fostering stronger relationships.

Senior Colonel Ge Hanwen, Associate Professor at the College of International Studies with China’s National University of Defense Technology, questioned Australia’s narrative regarding China’s actions and commitment to the rule of law and pointed out that China has not fought a war against neighbouring countries since the end of the Cold

War. Marles responded by affirming Australia’s commitment to the rules-based order, underscoring its role in regional peace and economic prosperity. He acknowledged the importance of professional and safe interactions with the Chinese armed forces while emphasising the need for consistent application of international law by all countries.

Colin Clark, the Indo-Pacific Bureau Chief at Breaking Defense, asked Marles about direct communication with China regarding unsafe incidents. The minister confirmed that Australia has engaged directly with China about unsafe military conduct and reiterated the importance of professional and safe interactions based on the rules-based order.

Nick Childs, Senior Fellow for Naval Forces and Maritime Security, IISS

Antoine Levesques, Research Fellow for South and Central Asian Defence, Strategy and Diplomacy, IISS

Senior Colonel Ge Hanwen, Associate Professor at the College of International Studies with the National University of Defense Technology, China

Colin Clark, Indo-Pacific Bureau Chief, Breaking Defense

Josh Rogin, opinion columnist, Washington Post

Jennifer Parker, a SEAYLP delegate and Expert Associate at the National Security College of the Australian National University, Australia

Fenella McGerty, Senior Fellow for Defence Economics, IISS

Dr Jimbo Ken, Professor of the Faculty of Policy Management at Keio University, Japan

CHAPTER 5

SPECIAL ADDRESS

Saturday 1 June 2024, 14:45

SPEAKER

General (Retd) Prabowo Subianto Minister of Defense and president-elect, Indonesia

Special address

General (Retd) Prabowo Subianto, Indonesian Minister of Defense and president-elect, began by announcing that the pursuit of peace, stability and prosperity is the cornerstone of Indonesia’s international engagement. He underscored Indonesia is committed to deepening inclusive dialogue and concrete collaboration and upholding international laws, particularly as pertains to respect for the national sovereignty and territorial integrity of all states as enshrined in the United Nations Charter.

The president-elect spotlighted conflicts in Ukraine and Palestine. He called for an investigation into ‘recent tragic events’ in Rafah, and he hailed a proposal by the United States for a ceasefire in Gaza. The president-elect highlighted Indonesia’s willingness to contribute ‘significant peacekeeping forces’ to maintain and monitor such a ceasefire, as well as humanitarian assistance when requested by the UN and medical personnel to operate a field

hospital pending the agreement of all sides. He reiterated Indonesia’s support for a two-state solution.

General Prabowo told delegates that he remains convinced that his peace plan for Ukraine, announced at the 20th IISS Shangri-La Dialogue in 2023, is ‘logical, relevant and necessary’. Indonesia views the conflict with deep sadness, and he urged delegates to not lose sight of the dangers of escalation and the risk of nuclear war.

Turning to the Indo-Pacific, General Prabowo reprised his message at the 19th Shangri-La Dialogue in 2022, calling for the leaders of the ‘great Chinese civilisation’ and ‘of the United States and its Western allies’ to meet their responsibilities as great powers. He expressed confidence that they could coexist, cooperate and collaborate in pursuit of the common good.

The president-elect closed by noting that while science and technology could improve livelihoods, without wisdom, benevolence and goodwill it could

General (Retd) Prabowo Subianto, Minister of Defense and presidentelect, Indonesia

also bring ‘catastrophe’ to the world. He urged that nationalism be tempered by humanity, and patriotism by wisdom and respect for all.

QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS

Sir John Chipman KCMG, the Executive Chairman of the IISS, asked General Prabowo if Indonesia would send a representative to the Summit on Peace in Ukraine to be hosted by Switzerland two weeks later. General Prabowo responded good-naturedly and to some laughter by reminding the chair that he was not yet the president of Indonesia, so the question should be directed to President Joko Widodo.

Richard Walker, Chief International Editor of Deutsche Welle, asked about concerns that countries in the Indo-Pacific would be ‘forced to pick sides’ between the US and China. Benedict Weerasena, a SEAYLP delegate and Research Director at think tank Bait Al-Amanah, asked about the president-elect’s

comment that some countries do not want to listen to the opinions of others, and about Indonesia’s responsibilities as a rising power. Iriana Freitas de Jesus Ximenez, a SEAYLP delegate and PhD Candidate at Flinders University, asked General Prabowo his position on negotiations of land and maritime boundaries between Indonesia and Timor-Leste.

General Prabowo responded that Indonesia must maintain a policy of non-alignment. He said he would promote a good-neighbour policy, that ‘real security comes through very good relations between our immediate neighbours’ and this is ‘part of our Asian culture’. He noted that in his lifetime Indonesia has had conflicts with neighbours Malaysia and Singapore, but they had resolved their differences and were now ‘like brothers’. He noted that for many years he had been involved in the East Timor conflict, but that the previous night he and Dr José Ramos-Horta, President of Timor-Leste, were hugging each other and walking hand in hand.

Sir John Chipman KCMG, Executive Chairman, IISS

Benedict Weerasena, SEAYLP delegate and Research Director at Bait Al-Amanah

Richard Walker, Chief International Editor, Deutsche Welle

Iriana Freitas de Jesus Ximenez, SEAYLP delegate and PhD Candidate at Flinders University

CHAPTER 6

Cross-regional security order challenges

FOURTH PLENARY SESSION

Saturday 1 June 2024, 15:15

SPEAKERS

Ingrida Šimonytė

Prime Minister, Lithuania

Dr Khalid bin Mohammad Al-Attiyah

Deputy Prime Minister;

Minister of State for Defense Affairs, Qatar

Kihara Minoru

Minister of Defense, Japan

FOURTH PLENARY SESSION

Cross-regional security order challenges

Ingrida Šimonytė, Prime Minister of Lithuania, opened the session by saying ‘small states matter’ and cooperation is essential. For small states, she said, adherence to international law and norms is not a choice but a necessity. Lithuania, as a front-line state on NATO’s eastern flank, knows this. No nation is an ‘isolated island’, so a world ‘where imperialistic ambitions of some rule the day’ is one where ‘no one is big enough’ to avoid aggression, she warned.

Lithuania spends around 2.0% of its GDP to help Ukraine, which she said needs support ‘without taboos or red lines’. Indo-Pacific countries, too, should help Ukraine counter Russia’s focus on forming an ‘axis of authoritarianism’ with Iran and North Korea. Partners could join Lithuania’s demining coalition or help rebuild Ukraine’s infrastructure. Lithuania’s regional cyber-defence and countering disinformation initiatives are practical platforms for cooperation. They are enabled by Lithuania’s 2023 Indo-Pacific Strategy and

its recent opening of missions in Australia, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan.

Dr Khalid bin Mohammad Al-Attiyah, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of State for Defense Affairs of Qatar, described Qatar’s approach to crossregional challenges as ‘simple in concept, challenging in action and contentious to those who reject change’. Qatar seeks national development, to uphold the rule of law, and effective communication.

Qatar, Al-Attiyah told delegates, considers states, ‘irrespective of size or might’, subject to international law. This is why, for Qatar, the International Court of Justice plays an ‘essential [role] to giving voice to the rights of the Palestinians’. Qatar has a clear position on their right to self-determination. For Qatar, he said, ‘any alliance built on the idea of the continued subjugation of a people is an alliance doomed to failure’.

Aside from defence, Qatar concentrates on being an ‘ally for peace’ and stable and reliable in its partnerships.

Ingrida Šimonytė, Prime Minister, Lithuania

It has a policy of open and consistent communication to ensure that misunderstandings do not arise. Others could have benefitted from this approach in light of recent events, he said.

Kihara Minoru, Minister of Defense of Japan, concluded the session by arguing that the world faces a choice between cooperation and decay of the global order. The risk of cross-regional simultaneous crises and inadvertent conflict has significantly increased, be it in Europe where the war in Ukraine shook the ‘very foundation of the international order’; in the Middle East, where Japan has sought to calm the situation through diplomacy; or in East Asia, where North Korea’s missile launches, ‘unilateral changes to the status quo by force or coercion’ in the South China Sea and around Taiwan, as well as Russia’s actions, pose serious challenges.

Countries ought to come together to avoid a worse situation. Japan released a National Security Strategy, a National Defense Strategy and a Defense Buildup Program in 2022. Those policies include focuses on counter-strike capabilities and defenceindustrial cooperation with the US and through the Global Combat Air Programme with Italy and the United Kingdom. Japan seeks to enhance situational awareness through technology, alongside allied and like-minded countries. In Europe, Japan cooperates on cyber policy and Women, Peace and Security, while

in the Middle East Japan sees ‘untapped potential’ for greater ties.

QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS

Naw Moo Moo Paw, a SEAYLP delegate and PhD Candidate at the University of Massachusetts Lowell, asked how to counter disinformation. Šimonytė said countries can cooperate to better observe ‘patterns’ across what may appear to be solely internal debates. Maeda Tadashi, Chairman of the Board, Japan Bank for International Cooperation, asked Šimonytė about her concern on Russia–China rapprochement. Šimonytė said Lithuania left China’s 17+1 engagement format in Europe and is ‘always pushing for a united strategy of the European Union vis-à-vis China’. Lithuania, she noted, has signed a strategic partnership with Japan and opened several embassies in the region, as well as a representative office of Lithuania in Taipei. Emile Hokayem, IISS Director of Regional Security and Senior Fellow for Middle East Security, asked about Qatar’s partnerships. Al-Attiyah answered that Qatar feels obligated to help contribute to regional stability and eschews belonging to any bloc. On Gaza, he said that Qatar is working closely with the United States, Egypt and other countries to reach a resolution that ‘everybody can live with’. Dr Elisabeth Hauschild, Senior Vice President of Diehl Stiftung & Co. KG, asked about

Dr Khalid bin Mohammad Al-Attiyah, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of State for Defense Affairs, Qatar

domestic and regional stability in the context of the war in Gaza. Al-Attiyah said the region seeks stability but the Israel–Palestine conflict causes turmoil as ‘every couple of years, every five years, we have the whole world rushing to our region’. Qatar, he said, supported the Arab peace initiative and a two-state solution.

Robert Ward , IISS Japan Chair and Director of Geo-economics and Strategy, asked about Japan’s ties with NATO. Kihara said Japan sees a maritime continuity between the Euro-Atlantic and IndoPacific regions. There had been attempts to change

the status quo in both, requiring like-minded partnerships. ‘That is why I think we can cooperate with NATO’, he said. Bill Emmott , IISS Chairman of the Board of Trustees and Member of the Advisory Council, asked about the Global Combat Air Programme. The minister explained that Japan is examining the project in its Diet. More generally, Japan wanted defence-industrial cooperation with other countries beyond the UK and Italy, including on joint development. Japan is engaging with the US on those issues too.

Kihara Minoru, Minister of Defense, Japan

Naw Moo Moo Paw, a SEAYLP delegate and PhD Candidate at the University of Massachusetts Lowell

Maeda Tadashi, Chairman of the Board, Japan Bank for International Cooperation

Emile Hokayem, Director of Regional Security and Senior Fellow for Middle East Security, IISS

Dr Elisabeth Hauschild, Senior Vice President of Diehl Stiftung & Co KG

Robert Ward, Japan Chair and Director of Geo-economics and Strategy, IISS

Bill Emmott, Chairman of the Board of Trustees and Member of the Advisory Council, IISS

CHAPTER 7

SIMULTANEOUS SPECIAL SESSIONS

Friday 31 May 2024

SPECIAL SESSION 1

Deterrence and reassurance in the Asia-Pacific

SPECIAL SESSION 2

Defence cooperation and small state security

SPECIAL SESSION 3

Myanmar: opportunities for diplomacy amid different visions for peace

Saturday 1 June 2024

SPECIAL SESSION 4

Maritime law enforcement and confidence-building

SPECIAL SESSION 5

AI, cyber defence and future warfare

SPECIAL SESSION 6

Coordinating global humanitarian operations

Deterrence and reassurance in the Asia-Pacific

IISS CHAIR

Veerle Nouwens

Executive Director, IISS–Asia

OPENING REMARKS

Kajsa Ollongren

Minister of Defence, The Netherlands

Admiral Samuel Paparo

Commander, US Indo-Pacific Command

Cui Tiankai

Former Vice Minister, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, China

Admiral Pierre Vandier

Vice Chief of the Defence Staff, France

Kajsa Ollongren, The Netherlands’ Minister of Defence, opened the discussion by saying that, amid instability and tension, reassurance and deterrence should come from cooperation and partnerships. The EU and NATO have been the bedrock of Dutch security, and maritime security and freedom of movement drive the Netherlands’ contributions to global maritime missions and deployments. This leads the country to search for partnerships, including in the Global South, and cooperation in new technology areas such as space, cyber and artificial intelligence. Ollongren said it is important to bolster the principles that underpin the international order, which Russia has torn up through its invasion of Ukraine. The need to stand by these principles underpins Dutch support for Ukraine, and the Netherlands will continue to support Ukrainian deterrence. While some aim to destabilise alliances, the Netherlands has chosen the path of cooperation.

Admiral Samuel Paparo, Commander of US IndoPacific Command, said deterrence and assurance are

the cornerstones of modern military strategy. When they are integrated, modern deterrence strategies go beyond military power, encompassing a range of other areas such as diplomatic and economic activity. This integrated deterrence approach, he said, makes aggression a riskier proposition. Assurance, meanwhile, focuses on building trust and confidence, such as fostering stability within alliances and partnerships, and discouraging potential aggressors with coalitions and alliances. Deterrence and assurance work in combination but face new challenges including the emergence of non-state actors, missile proliferation, cyber warfare and AI.

Cui Tiankai, former vice minister of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China, said a balance is needed between deterrence and reassurance and that these are determined by broader strategy. In this, perception is important, ‘of ourselves and our relationship’. Perception of real or potential rivalry could lead to greater reliance on deterrence strategies, and under such conditions ‘assurances could not be very convincing’. A good understanding of perceptions and relationships is needed to balance deterrence and reassurance. This mutual confidence could, he continued, lead to ‘sufficient reassurance’, which would be a good basis on which to work together on global challenges such as AI and climate change. He said desired security architectures have to be ‘balanced

and effective’, working for the ‘interests of all the countries’, taking care of sovereignty and territorial integrity and taking care of the ‘legitimate security concerns of all countries’.

Admiral Pierre Vandier, Vice Chief of the Defence Staff of France, said deterrence is a defensive strategy, designed to prevent an aggressor from starting a confrontation, while reassurance, such as alliance guarantees, contributes to deterrence by complicating an aggressor’s calculus. France’s Cold War experience illustrates how additional players could ‘contribute to regional stability and de-escalation’. Regional actors should develop ‘robust multilateral partnerships’ including military and civil dimensions, which can signal capability and resolve, deterring adversaries and contributing to regional stability. For its part, France looks to develop its partners’ strategic options by developing military ties, defence industrial partnerships and a consistent diplomatic posture. Handling flashpoints, meanwhile, means establishing daily codes of conduct and maintaining communication channels, which are important to communicating and understanding military actions and political intentions. A combination of military preparedness, strategic communication and diplomatic initiatives is needed to deter aggression, and responsible and credible third parties could help deterrence and reassurance.

Kajsa Ollongren, Minister of Defence, The Netherlands

Admiral Samuel Paparo, Commander, US Indo-Pacific Command

Admiral Pierre Vandier, Vice Chief of the Defence Staff, France

Cui Tiankai, former vice minister of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, China

Defence cooperation and small state security

IISS CHAIR

Viraj Solanki

IISS Research Fellow, South and Central Asian Defence, Strategy and Diplomacy

OPENING REMARKS

Hanno Pevkur

Minister of Defence, Estonia

Mohamed Ghassan Maumoon

Minister of Defence, Maldives

Esa Pulkkinen

Deputy Minister, Ministry of Defence, Finland

Hanno Pevkur, Estonia’s Minister of Defence, highlighted Estonia’s unique security challenges due to its small size and proximity to Russia, which he characterised as the only actor that poses a threat to his country. For instance, the Ukrainian territory occupied by Russia is two and a half times the size of Estonia’s territory. Estonia, a member of both the EU and NATO, views Russia’s military expansion and increased defence budget with concern, particularly given Russia’s military reforms and the increase in Russian forces near the Finnish border. Estonia has responded by increasing its defence spending to 3.4% of GDP in 2024, among the highest of any country in NATO. Pevkur emphasised Estonia’s commitment to NATO principles, particularly self-reliance under Article 3, and its integrated defence cooperation with Baltic and Nordic countries and other regional partners. He stressed the importance of international collaboration and historical resilience, recalling Estonia’s victory in its independence war against Russia despite being vastly outnumbered.

Mohamed Ghassan Maumoon, Minister of Defence of the Maldives, highlighted the vulnerability of small states like the Maldives, which rely heavily on international law for their security. He noted the increasing disregard for international norms by some larger states, which poses significant challenges for smaller countries. The Maldives, under President Mohamed Muizzu, is prioritising building its own defence capabilities and fostering strong international partnerships, particularly with India and the United States. Maumoon highlighted the importance of maritime security and the Maldives’ strategic role in safeguarding Indian Ocean trade routes. He stressed that defence cooperation must respect the sovereignty of the Maldives, rejecting any foreign military presence on its soil, and called for increased regional cooperation to address threats such as maritime terrorism, transnational crime and climate change.

Esa Pulkkinen, Finland’s Deputy Minister of Defence, discussed his country’s strategic position and historical experiences with threats from Russia. Finland’s response has been to develop a comprehensive security model, integrating military and civil-society preparedness. Finland’s recent accession to NATO, spurred by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, marks the end of its long history of military non-alignment. Pulkkinen emphasised Finland’s strong national-defence capabilities, including a large military reserve supported by conscription and advanced spearhead capabilities such as a modern fleet of F-35 fighter jets. He also highlighted Finland’s deep defence cooperation with Nordic and Baltic neighbours and its participation in multilateral frameworks such as the Nordic Defence Cooperation and the Joint Expeditionary Force. Finland’s approach combines robust national defence with active international engagement to create interdependencies that enhance its security.

Hanno Pevkur, Minister of Defence, Estonia

Mohamed Ghassan Maumoon, Minister of Defence, Maldives

Esa Pulkkinen, Deputy Minister, Ministry of Defence, Finland

Myanmar: opportunities for diplomacy amid different visions for peace

IISS CHAIR

Aaron Connelly

IISS Senior Fellow for Southeast Asian Politics and Foreign Policy

OPENING REMARKS

Anne-Marie Trevelyan

Minister of State for the Indo-Pacific, Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, UK

Dato’ Raja Nushirwan bin Zainal Abidin

Director General, National Security Council, Malaysia

Igor Driesmans

Special Envoy for Myanmar, European External Action Service, European Union

Ngurah Swajaya

Head, Office of the Special Envoy of Indonesia to Myanmar, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Indonesia

Anne-Marie Trevelyan, Minister of State for the Indo-Pacific in the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office of the United Kingdom, underlined the severity of the humanitarian crisis in Myanmar while noting the need to keep the country on the global agenda. Setting out a vision for peace, Trevelyan asserted that a durable solution must be Myanmar-owned and led, but that the international community can set the conditions required for such a process to take shape. In addition to its role as penholder at the UN Security Council, for example, the UK supports both ASEAN and the UN Special Envoy in their approaches to Myanmar. Trevelyan noted that for progress to take shape, there must first be a de-escalation in violence across the country. She reiterated the need to continue humanitarian assistance for those directly affected by the conflict.

Dato’ Raja Nushirwan bin Zainal Abidin, Director General of the National Security Council in Malaysia, said his country’s view is that the Myanmar military’s 2021 coup d’état ‘is taking up valuable bandwidth’ from

ASEAN’s region-building efforts at a time of great challenge. Raja Nushirwan warned of an impending ‘worst-case scenario’ in which the country breaks into warring factions after the fall of the central authority. He asserted that regional stakeholders all have a role to play in influencing the trajectory of the conflict, but that different approaches must be better coordinated and complementary to one another. Raja Nushirwan concluded by saying international stakeholders should promote principles rather than groups or personalities.

Ambassador Igor Driesmans, Special Envoy for Myanmar for the European External Action Service of the European Union, explained that the EU has responded to the 2021 coup with eight rounds of targeted sanctions against the military junta. These accompany €265 million in development and humanitarian aid to the people of Myanmar. Even so, he said, these efforts alone cannot solve the crisis. Outlining a way forward, Igor insisted on the need to avoid partial solutions by engaging all stakeholders. Next, confidence-building measures should be undertaken amongst all relevant parties. Thirdly, stakeholders should recognise their shared interests and work more closely to communicate and coordinate with one

another. Finally, he said, ‘national stakeholders’ must find a concrete solution to ‘satisfy the aspirations of the people’.

Ambassador Ngurah Swajaya, head of the Office of the Special Envoy of Indonesia to Myanmar for the Indonesian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, began with a reflection on how ASEAN’s historical approach to Myanmar, predicated primarily on engagement with the military government, failed to produce a durable solution. In the wake of the 2021 coup d’état, therefore, Indonesia realised a need to adopt an inclusive approach and engage with all stakeholders. But in the current context, Myanmar stakeholders remain unwilling to look beyond military matters to prepare adequately for a political solution. Recognising this challenge, the ambassador said the international community should step up its efforts, including by passing another UN Security Council resolution. Whilst it will ultimately be up to Myanmar stakeholders to begin dialogue, the changing situation on the ground has created conditions conducive to outside parties pushing further on the need for an inclusive approach. ASEAN and the international community should not give up and should continue to seek a solution.

Anne-Marie Trevelyan, Minister of State for the Indo-Pacific in the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, UK

Dato’ Raja Nushirwan bin Zainal Abidin, Director General of the National Security Council, Malaysia

Ambassador Ngurah Swajaya, head of the Office of the Special Envoy of Indonesia to Myanmar for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Indonesia

Ambassador Igor Driesmans, special Envoy for Myanmar, European External Action Service, European Union

Maritime law enforcement and confidence-building

IISS CHAIR

Nick Childs

IISS Senior Fellow for Naval Forces and Maritime Security

OPENING REMARKS

Admiral Linda Fagan Commandant, United States Coast Guard

Vice Admiral Dr Irvansyah Chief, Maritime Security Agency, Indonesia

Admiral Ronnie Gil Gavan Commandant, Philippine Coast Guard

Major General Le Quang Dao Commander, Vietnam Coast Guard

Admiral Linda Fagan, Commandant of the United States Coast Guard, underscored the United States’ global connections and reliance on the sea. Nations’ ability to carry out basic maritime law enforcement is vital to maintaining stability ashore, she said, to prevent activities such as trafficking in persons and drugs, cyber attacks and illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing. Constabulary services, whether called the coast guard, navy or fisheries service, are the best solutions to this. She added that maritime law enforcement is a capability distinct from war fighting. It would be helpful to have an agreement similar to the Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea, which currently guides the behaviour of navies, to help avoid conflict between coastguard or maritime law enforcement vessels of different nations.

Vice Admiral Dr Irvansyah, Chief of the Maritime Security Agency of Indonesia, pointed out that the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Coast Guard Forum has helped to build confidence and trust among countries in the region and provide

a platform for preventive maritime diplomacy. As an archipelagic state, he said, Indonesia is facing perennial challenges including transnational crime, territory violation, piracy, accidents at sea and cyber crime. But he said that illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing still contributes to 70% of maritime issues in Indonesia. In terms of maritime law enforcement and confidencebuilding, various factors such as an excessive reliance on law enforcement rather than preventive measures was encouraging more assertiveness between rival countries. This reinforces the importance of collaboration in the region and beyond, including through such forums as the Coast Guard Global Summit.

Admiral Ronnie Gil Gavan, Commandant of the Philippine Coast Guard, described the regional maritime domain as fluid, uncertain, complex and ambiguous, and he said it was becoming more operationally volatile. He noted the Philippine Coast Guard has become a more prominent feature of the Philippines’ frontier in the South China Sea. Its purpose was to enforce a safe, stable, prosperous and peaceful rules-based order, to fortify the Philippines’

administration over its maritime areas, and to pursue international cooperation and engagement, most significantly with treaty ally the US and with ASEAN. He added that its approach to the use of water cannons was to save lives and hoped that others would adopt a similar approach.

Major General Le Quang Dao, Commander of the Vietnam Coast Guard, joined his fellow panellists in emphasising that ‘the sea and oceans play a vital role in economics, politics, society, defence and security for not only coastal countries but also other nations worldwide’. He pointed out, however, that maritime security, order and safety, as well as environmental issues and economic development, face both traditional and non-traditional challenges. These issues are global, he said, and ‘cannot be resolved by any single country, region, organisation or force’. He proposed continuing to strengthen current cooperation by complying with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, developing new cooperation mechanisms, and committing the Vietnam Coast Guard to taking an active and responsible role in this with other coast guards.

Admiral Linda Fagan, Commandant, US Coast Guard

Vice Admiral Dr Irvansyah, Chief, Maritime Security Agency, Indonesia

Major General Le Quang Dao, Commander, Vietnam Coast Guard

Admiral Ronnie Gil Gavan, Commandant, Philippine Coast Guard

AI, cyber defence and future warfare

IISS CHAIR

Julia Voo

IISS Senior Fellow for Cyber Power and Future Conflict

OPENING REMARKS

General Timothy Haugh

Commander, United States Cyber Command

Lieutenant General Ahsan Gulrez

Director-General, Joint Staff Headquarters, Pakistan

Armed Forces

Admiral Rob Bauer

Chair, Military Committee, NATO

Mirjana Spoljaric

President, International Committee of the Red Cross

Lieutenant General Ahsan Gulrez, DirectorGeneral of the Joint Staff Headquarters for the Pakistan SPECIAL SESSION 5

General Timothy Haugh, Commander of United States Cyber Command, opened the special session by outlining the US commitment to responsible, ethical and secure artificial intelligence (AI) deployment, which he contrasted with nations that seek to use it to control societies. He highlighted the success of the Political Declaration on Responsible Military Use of Artificial Intelligence and Autonomy, which 55 nations have endorsed. On the challenges of AI, General Haugh outlined the US Cyber Command’s approach: ‘to detect and counter threats, to drive and deepen partnerships, and to develop and promote best practices’. To further the science of AI, he highlighted the US National Security Agency’s AI Security Center as an example of a collaborative environment. General Haugh emphasised the US willingness to stand with Indo-Pacific partners and allies while separately stressing that nations looking to use emerging technologies should consider the values guiding their adoption.

Armed Forces, detailed the challenges and risks that might arise as smaller states, non-state actors and high-tech companies gain access to emerging technologies. On the topic of future warfare, he described the expansion of conflict into the hybrid grey zone through emerging technologies as countries seek to gain a decisive advantage, be it through AI-enabled cyber warfare; information operations to psychologically intimidate a population; or the development of space-based offensive technologies. Lieutenant General Gulrez stressed how doctrine has been forced to adapt to innovation, raising ethical concerns such as how lethal autonomous weapons systems are developed and the role of humans in their operations. He urged the international community to cooperate on establishing a rules-based framework promoting such aspects as regulation, transparency and accessibility for AI.

Admiral Rob Bauer, Chair of the NATO Military Committee, reminded participants that while some might imagine that, amid technological innovations, conflict now only consists of drones, AI and quantum technology, the reality of modern warfare continues to involve trenches, artillery and human soldiers. Using Ukrainian successes as a reference, he advocated for collaboration around the development and deployment of new technologies that can increase battlefield

transparency. He drew attention to the effectiveness of public-private partnership in preventing cyber operations through openness of parties and flexibility in data storage policies. Admiral Bauer raised concerns around the unrestricted use of new technologies on the battlefield, which has been accompanied by a decay in conventional and nuclear arms control. He hoped that the rules-based international order would not be forgotten in pursuit of high-tech weaponry.

Mirjana Spoljaric, President of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), concluded the session by highlighting how emerging technologies have made humanitarian work more complex and difficult to manage. She highlighted three trends: the increasingly widespread use of autonomous weapons systems without human intervention; the influence of AI on targeting that surpasses human cognitive capacity; and the use of cyber operations to target civilian infrastructure including those of medical services. Spoljaric made two calls to all states. Firstly, reaffirm their commitment to the accepted principles of international humanitarian law through a new treaty regulating autonomous weapons systems by 2026, which can be aided by implementing the ICRC’s recommendations for protecting civilians against digital threats during armed conflict. Secondly, oppose the concept of military victory at all costs, so that technology can serve the cause of peace.

General Timothy Haugh, Commander, US Cyber Command

Lieutenant General Ahsan Gulrez, Director-General, Joint Staff Headquarters, Pakistan Armed Forces

Mirjana Spoljaric, President, International Committee of the Red Cross

Admiral Rob Bauer, Chair, Military Committee, NATO

Coordinating global humanitarian operations

IISS CHAIR

Dr Irene Mia

IISS Senior Fellow for Latin America, and Conflict, Security and Development; Editor, Armed Conflict Survey

OPENING REMARKS

Dr Pål Jonson

Minister for Defence, Sweden

Pio Tikoduadua

Minister for Home Affairs and Immigration, Fiji

General Romeo Brawner Jr

Chief of Staff, Armed Forces of the Philippines

General Angus Campbell

Chief of the Defence Force, Australia

Dr Pål Jonson, Minister for Defence of Sweden, opened the special session with an overview of challenges to humanitarian operations, which include ‘revisionist powers, malign state actors and terrorists’ as well as climate change. He referred to Russia’s fullscale invasion of Ukraine as having forced Sweden to rethink its security, which led to its becoming a member of NATO in March 2024. He referred to the importance of resilience, citing Sweden’s Total Defence concept, and drew attention to the strategic links between the Euro-Atlantic and the Indo-Pacific. In terms of implementation, he referred to the need to build strong political and security partnerships. Jonson observed the rising importance of the AsiaPacific for Sweden and said Sweden is drafting a new defence policy strategy for the region.

Pio Tikoduadua, Minister for Home Affairs and Immigration of Fiji, highlighted the increase in demand for military assistance in the face of emergencies in the Pacific Islands and beyond as a result of climate change. He cited the 280 climate-related

disasters to which militaries worldwide had been deployed since June 2022. He urged clarity on roles and responsibilities before assistance of armed forces is sought or offered, and he emphasised the ‘primacy of civilian agencies in emergency management and response’. Tikoduadua also argued for ‘concurrency’ to be embedded into planning and implementation as emergencies do not occur in isolation. He concluded by referring to plans for a Pacific Response Group that would include military personnel from the Pacific region and act as a standby unit to support civil authorities in natural disasters.

General Romeo Brawner Jr, Chief of Staff for the Armed Forces of the Philippines, drew attention to the vulnerability of the Philippines to natural disasters and how this has required the country’s armed forces, through its Civil-Military Coordination Center (CMCC), to develop a sophisticated and resilient disaster-response mechanism. He outlined the CMCC’s structure and how coordination bridges the gaps between military and civilian humanitarian

efforts. Brawner cited the importance of cultivating a readiness culture throughout relevant organisations by training, continuously improving strategy and deploying advanced technology. He concluded by stressing the importance of strengthening international cooperation frameworks.

General Angus Campbell, Chief of the Australian Defence Force, concluded the special session addresses by outlining three agents – the individual, the state and climate change – that can create circumstances in which a humanitarian response is needed. He also noted that the Australian Defence Force considers humanitarian operations as ranging from disaster relief to peacekeeping. He cited three requirements for humanitarian operations: legitimacy to act, political support, and the capacity, when needed, to impose or threaten force to protect life. Campbell added that humanitarian operations are ‘whole-of-government problems and they need whole-of-government responses’. Planning should be for the long term, with civilian authorities taking precedence as soon as possible.

Dr Pål Jonson, Minister for Defence, Sweden

Pio Tikoduadua, Minister for Home Affairs and Immigration, Fiji

General Romeo Brawner Jr, Chief of Staff for the Armed Forces, Philippines

General Angus Campbell, Chief of the Defence Force, Australia

CHAPTER 8

Reception and dinner hosted by the president

CHAPTER 9

China’s approach to global security

FIFTH PLENARY SESSION

Sunday 2 June 2024, 08:35

SPEAKERS

Admiral Dong Jun

Minister of National Defense, China

FIFTH PLENARY

SESSION

China’s Approach to Global Security

Admiral Dong Jun, Minister of National Defense, China

Admiral Dong Jun, Minister of National Defense for China, opened the session with a discussion of the Asia-Pacific region’s security landscape, which he characterised as naturally bound together as a community with a shared future. According to the minister, Asia-Pacific countries hold a strong anti-hegemonic tendency and that ‘attempts at decoupling, cutting supply chains or building a small yard with high fences will find no support here’.

Admiral Dong outlined President Xi Jinping’s three global initiatives: the Global Development Initiative, the Global Security Initiative and the Global Civilization Initiative. He outlined what he described as China’s peaceful strategic culture and a national-defence policy that is purely defensive in nature. The minister reiterated that China’s nuclear policy remains consistently based on no first use, and that China is willing to take the lead in signing the protocol to the treaty of the Southeast Asia Nuclear

Weapon-Free Zone. China remains committed to pursuing common security, he said, highlighting China’s policy of neutrality and preference for dialogue to resolve the ‘Ukraine crisis’ and ‘Palestinian–Israeli conflict’. China is committed to equality, mutual respect, openness and inclusiveness, and ‘pursues the common good and shared interests above anything else’ in China’s defence cooperation with other countries.

The minister then turned to China’s commitment to safeguarding its ‘core interests’, which he said are sacred and inviolable. ‘The Taiwan question is at the core of China’s core interests’, he told delegates. According to the minister, the ‘One China’ policy has ‘long become a universally recognised norm governing international relations’ and accused the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) authorities in Taiwan of pursuing separation in an incremental way. These ‘separatists’, he said, would be ‘nailed to the

pillar of shame in history’. The minister also pointed to ‘some external forces’ for ‘hollowing out the One China principle with a salami-slicing strategy’ that includes passing Taiwan-relevant legislation, selling arms to Taiwan and having illegal official contacts with it. China’s handling of Taiwan-related issues in accordance with Chinese laws is the internal affair of China and ‘anyone who dares to separate Taiwan from China will only end up in self-destruction’, he said.

The admiral concluded the session with China’s recommendations for building a framework of regional security cooperation to make the Asia-Pacific an anchor for global stability and development. This would be based on protecting the legitimate security interests of all countries; building a more just and equitable international order; giving full play to regional security architectures and multilateralism in regional security affairs; advancing open and substantive defence cooperation; setting an example of maritime security cooperation; and strengthening security governance in emerging areas such as new technologies. On maritime security, Admiral Dong said China has exercised great restraint but that ‘there is a limit to [China’s] restraint’. On emerging technologies, he said countries should ‘reject the behaviours of overstretching the concept of national security and preventing other countries’ technology development by imposing technology blockades’.

QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS

Josh Rogin, opinion columnist at the Washington Post, asked about China’s commitment to peaceful reunification with Taiwan, and whether China’s drills following the presidential inauguration of Lai Chingte (William) were intended to convince the Taiwanese people that China is truly interested in peaceful reunification. Rogin asked whether engaging with Taiwan’s chosen leaders might not better serve China’s cause of peace and stability. Admiral Dong responded that Taiwan is a province of China, and there is a legal basis for this under international law. He cited the 1943 Cairo Declaration, the 1945 Potsdam Declaration and UNGA 2758 Resolution in 1971. The minister said the status quo is being unilaterally eroded, citing the DPP’s failure to recognise the 1992 Consensus on the ‘One China’ policy; attempts to change the Constitution; changes to Taiwan’s textbooks to erase Chinese identity; prevention of people-to-people ties; and strengthening of its military capabilities. The minister said this is an incremental approach to independence and outside forces are sending wrong signals to Taiwan’s independence forces, thus making them ‘very aggressive’. While the minister said China would pursue peaceful reunification ‘with the biggest sincerity’, he warned the ‘forces for Taiwan independence’ to ‘abandon the illusion and return to the right track of

Admiral Dong Jun, Minister of National Defense, China, addresses the audience

unification’ and to build more understanding of China’s Anti-Secessionist Law.

Dr Chung Min Lee, IISS Chairman of the Advisory Council and Trustee, asked the minister how audience members could trust China when ‘your words and your actions are totally opposite’, specifically citing accusations of Chinese cyber activity, increases in its nuclear forces, and pursuit of its territorial claims in the South China Sea. Admiral Dong responded on maritime security, telling delegates that there has never been any incident in which a civilian ship has had its freedom of navigation compromised in the South China Sea. The minister then questioned why the issue of freedom of navigation is always brought up and asked whether big powers continue to increase their military presence in the region to stir up trouble. Admiral Dong said many countries in the South China Sea had been victims of freedom of navigation operations by some countries who have not signed UNCLOS.

Bonnie Glaser, Managing Director of the IndoPacific program of the German Marshall Fund, asked about China–Philippines–US relations and tensions around Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea – including the use of water cannons by the China Coast Guard against Philippine vessels – and what China will do to de-escalate what she described as a dangerous situation. Admiral Dong responded that the Philippines and China had reached an agreement to allow the Philippines to send supplies to personnel on a ship in Second Thomas Shoal for humanitarian reasons. However, according to Admiral Dong, the Philippines had unilaterally reneged on its promise not to also send construction materials, and it was deliberately trying to make an issue of the resulting incidents. The minister warned that while Chinese law enforcement has been very restrained, its tolerance for deliberate provocation is limited.

Josh Rogin, opinion columnist, Washington Post

Dr Chung Min Lee, Chairman of the Advisory Council and Trustee, IISS

Bonnie Glaser, Managing Director of the Indo-Pacific program of the German Marshall Fund

CHAPTER 10

Connecting Indian Ocean and

Pacific security

SIXTH PLENARY SESSION

Sunday 2 June 2024, 09:30

SPEAKERS

Sutin Klungsang

Minister of Defence, Thailand

Judith Collins

Minister of Defence, New Zealand

Bill Blair

Minister of National Defence, Canada

SIXTH PLENARY SESSION

Connecting Indian Ocean and Pacific security

Sutin Klungsang, Minister of Defence, Thailand

Sutin Klungsang, Minister of Defence for Thailand, opened the session by noting that Thailand is located on a peninsula in Southeast Asia connecting the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Thailand promotes cooperation with all countries through various mechanisms to enhance connectivity and mutual prosperity in both ocean regions, highlighting China’s Belt and Road Initiative and the United States’ Indo-Pacific Economic Framework. Increasing connectivity presents opportunities for economic prosperity, societal benefits and collective human-security development. However, it also poses challenges to regional security, he said, ranging from intensified geopolitical competition to emerging transborder security challenges such as transnational crime, illegal migration, piracy and environmental degradation. Therefore, enhancing cooperation among countries in the region is a ‘vital mechanism’ to foster trust and confidence-building.

He added that coordination and collaboration between ASEAN-led mechanisms with regional and sub-regional cooperation frameworks in both the Indian and Pacific Oceans would strengthen relationships. Thailand also urges enhanced domain awareness through the promotion of maritime information-sharing and collaboration, and it emphasises regional maritime cooperation by actively participating in various key cooperative mechanisms.

Judith Collins, Minister of Defence for New Zealand, outlined New Zealand’s connection to its immediate Pacific region, the Indo-Pacific, and the world at large. New Zealand is a long-standing contributor to a number of multinational peacekeeping operations, notably in the Middle East and on the Korean Peninsula. They are complemented by a ‘regular programme’ of engagements, exercises and operations in Asia, with a particular focus on supporting maritime security.

The South Pacific continues to be an area of focus for New Zealand as a Pacific nation. Its security, the minister said, is ‘directly connected’ to that of its Pacific partners and the region as a whole. New Zealand works with these partners and those from outside the region to ‘protect and promote Pacific security interests’. Pacific Island countries have long identified climate change as the region’s primary security challenge, in addition to issues such as illegal, unregulated and unreported fishing, as well as transnational organised crime. Similarly, the Pacific is ‘increasingly important as a theatre for strategic competition’. Perhaps most acutely in the South China Sea, there are ‘conflicting states’ ambitions resulting in challenges to maritime sovereignty’.

New Zealand recognised that building individual relationships with key partners in Southeast Asia was ‘more critical than ever’. New Zealand welcomes AUKUS as an ‘initiative to enhance regional security and stability’, and it is ‘investigating opportunities’ for potential involvement in AUKUS Pillar 2.

Bill Blair, Minister of National Defence for Canada, highlighted that it is a ‘proud Pacific nation’ whose future and prosperity is deeply tied to the stability and security of the entire Indo-Pacific region. Blair said Canada would join the new initiative on the resilience of defence-industrial bases in the Indo-Pacific, announced by US Secretary of Defense Austin.

Canada is increasing its naval deployments in the region, and it is beginning to deploy ships from the ‘Atlantic Ocean through the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean’. He added that ‘perhaps by 2050 the fastest shipping route between Europe and Asia will be through our Arctic’.

Blair noted that Canada’s defence policy identifies the Indo-Pacific as ‘one of the two priority regions for military presence for the very first time’. Canada, he said, would invest over $10 billion to sustain its naval fleets to be a ‘reliable and dependable partner’. Blair noted that, during the Shangri-La Dialogue, he met with China’s Defense Minister, Admiral Dong Jun, in the first meeting between Canada’s and China’s defence ministers in over 11 years.

QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS

Morgan Michaels, IISS Research Fellow for Southeast Asian Politics and Foreign Policy, asked Sutin about increasing flows of people from Myanmar to Thailand. Sutin responded that ‘peace in Myanmar greatly affects peace and stability in Thailand, especially between the people along the border’. Therefore, Thailand closely monitors the situation in Myanmar. He noted that 50,000 people from Myanmar had crossed the border of Thailand.

Nick Childs, IISS Senior Fellow for Naval Forces and Maritime Security, asked Collins and Blair about

Judith Collins, Minister of Defence, New Zealand

their respective countries’ roles in collaborating with AUKUS. Collins responded that New Zealand’s strengths in technology could allow it to be a contributor to AUKUS Pillar 2. Blair added that neither New Zealand nor Canada ‘were in the business of looking’ for nuclear-powered submarines. Canada is in the process of replacing its submarine fleet, but it is focused on conventional submarines. Canada did, however, have a great deal to contribute to AUKUS Pillar 2.

Lieutenant Colonel Ki Manghout, a SEAYLP delegate and Assistant and Advisor to the Permanent Secretary of State for the Ministry of National Defence of Cambodia, asked the New Zealand minister about climate change adaptability and other issues facing

the Pacific. Collins said the top issue that comes up in defence in the Pacific is ‘illegal, unregulated fishing’. Pacific nations often require assistance with monitoring and taking action against illegal fishing.

Viraj Solanki, IISS Research Fellow for South and Central Asian Defence, Strategy and Diplomacy, asked about Canada’s and New Zealand’s focus on the Indian Ocean, including India. Collins responded that the Indian Ocean is ‘very relevant’. In particular, New Zealand is seeking to ‘renew and to grow and enhance our relationship’ with India. Blair said India is ‘very important’ to Canada. India has posed some challenges for Canada recently, but ‘we believe that the appropriate resolution of that is through dialogue and through proper engagement’.

Bill Blair, Minister of National Defence, Canada

Morgan Michaels, Research Fellow for Southeast Asian Politics and Foreign Policy, IISS

Nick Childs, Senior Fellow for Naval Forces and Maritime Security, IISS

Lieutenant Colonel Ki Manghout, SEAYLP delegate and Assistant and Advisor to the Permanent Secretary of State for the Ministry of National Defence of Cambodia

Viraj Solanki, Research Fellow for South and Central Asian Defence, Strategy and Diplomacy, IISS

CHAPTER 11

Re-imagining solutions for global peace and regional stability

SEVENTH PLENARY SESSION

Sunday 2 June 2024, 11:30

SPEAKERS

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

President, Ukraine

Dato’ Seri Mohamed Khaled bin Nordin

Minister of Defence, Malaysia

Dr Ng Eng Hen

Minister for Defence, Singapore

SEVENTH PLENARY SESSION

Re-imagining solutions for global peace and regional stability

Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President, Ukraine

Volodymyr Zelenskyy , President of Ukraine, opened his address with a description of the degrading of diplomacy over the last few decades. He referred to Ukraine in the 1990s having ‘suffered one of the greatest deceptions’ in modern history when security assurances from nuclear powers, after Ukraine handed over its nuclear warheads to Russia, failed to ‘translate into real security’. He referred to Russia’s violations of Ukraine’s ‘territory and sovereignty’ in the 2000s, saying that Russia had ‘brought a war to our land’ by the middle of the 2010s. Zelenskyy noted how Russia’s war against Ukraine now had a global impact.

Dato’ Seri Mohamed Khaled bin Nordin, Malaysia’s Minister of Defence, emphasised the need for dialogue over what he termed binary views and

He highlighted how diplomacy can work ‘when it truly aims to protect life’ and cited ‘the coalitions from military to humanitarian’ that had helped Ukraine to build resilience against Russian aggression. In particular, he thanked Germany, the Netherlands and the United States for their support in bolstering Ukrainian air defences, while thanking especially Qatar for its help in negotiating the return of Ukrainian children kidnapped by Russia. Zelenskyy outlined the ‘new security architecture’ that Ukraine is creating with its partners, expressing confidence that Ukraine will join the EU. He referred to the Summit on Peace in Ukraine that would take place later in June in Switzerland, and invited Asia’s leaders to attend.

zero-sum thinking. Khaled also expressed Malaysia’s hope for peace in Ukraine. He noted the importance of working towards peace in Palestine and welcomed

‘any proposal’ that might help achieve an immediate and permanent ceasefire in the Israel–Hamas conflict. He stressed the right to national independence and sovereignty for the Palestinians.

Khaled addressed regional security, including threats from emerging technology, cyber security, global warming and tensions in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait. He proposed re-imagining ‘the solution for a better future’ in three pillars, or ‘outlooks’. The first is constructive dialogue, and he cited the convening power of ASEAN as indispensable to such dialogue. The second is ‘the robust initiation of comprehensive cooperation across domains’. The third is using numerous layers and platforms to achieve complementary cooperation.

Dr Ng Eng Hen, Singapore’s Minister for Defence, said, ‘We must avoid a physical conflict in Asia because we can all agree that neither Asia nor the world can withstand a third geopolitical shock.’ Dr Ng outlined the ‘uncertainty of continuing support and achievable outcomes’ for Ukraine and the risk of ‘wider contagion’ from the Israel–Hamas conflict. He emphasised ‘not here in Asia’ as the ‘salient epiphany’ against this backdrop and welcomed that the US and China have both ‘disavowed physical conflict between their two countries’.

Dr Ng warned against overly simplistic comparisons between Russia’s attack on Ukraine and the situation between Taiwan and China. He said there would be no quick resolution of competing claims in

the South China Sea and urged more dialogue between the US and Chinese military. He doubted there would be a ‘glasnost or perestroika moment for China’ and pointed to the importance of the role of ASEAN.

QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS

Dr Tim Huxley, former IISS–Asia executive director, asked Khaled about the impact on emerging security challenges in Borneo from Indonesia’s plan to move its capital to Nusantara. Khaled replied that he is unconcerned about risks from an increased Indonesian presence across Malaysia’s border with Indonesia. Tidarat Yingcharoen, a SEAYLP delegate and an adviser to the chairman of the Committee on Foreign Affairs of the House of Representatives of Thailand, asked about the region’s ability to contribute to ‘global peace and stability when at times there is not any’ in the region. Professor Rory Medcalf, the head of the National Security College at Australian National University, asked how ASEAN could convey to China its concerns about the ‘devastating’ consequences of ‘the use of force against Taiwan’. Khaled emphasised the importance of dialogue as the answer to most of the questions posed. Dr Ng, meanwhile, referred to ASEAN’s ability to settle many of its internal disputes ‘peacefully’ and the group’s ‘agency’. He continued that China did not ‘need any advice about Taiwan from ASEAN’.

Dato’ Seri Mohamed Khaled bin Nordin, Minister of Defence, Malaysia

Dr Neth Chanthima, a SEAYLP delegate and Advisor to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation of Cambodia, asked Zelenskyy whether there should be a ‘collective call’ from Ukraine and its allies for ‘the Israeli government to adhere to international humanitarian law’. Zelenskyy spoke of Israel’s right to self-defence, indicated Ukraine’s willingness to give humanitarian support to Gaza and noted that Ukraine ‘recognises two states, Israel and Palestine’.

Sir John Chipman KCMG, IISS Executive Chairman, asked whether the seizure of Russia’s state assets would be discussed at the summit. Zelenskyy replied that the summit would be centred on the three ‘main issues’ he

mentioned in his address: nuclear security; food security; and the release of prisoners of war and Ukrainian children abducted by Russia. Veerle Nouwens, IISS–Asia Executive Director, asked Zelenksyy what he hoped for at the Summit on Peace in Ukraine from Asia-Pacific countries. Zelenskyy urged them to support the summit, including through their attendance, and expressed his openness to ‘proposals and thoughts’ that could end the war and yield a ‘sustainable and just peace for Ukraine’.

Dr Ng closed the session by noting his personal admiration for Zelenskyy and thanked him for his in-person participation after his virtual special address in 2022, as well as his leadership.

Dr Ng Eng Hen, Minister for Defence, Singapore

Sir John Chipman KCMG, Executive Chairman, IISS

Tidarat Yingcharoen, a SEAYLP delegate and an adviser to the chairman of the Committee on Foreign Affairs of the House of Representatives, Thailand

Dr Neth Chanthima, a SEAYLP delegate and Advisor to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, Cambodia

Veerle Nouwens, Executive Director, IISS–Asia

Dr Tim Huxley, former executive director, IISS–Asia

Professor Rory Medcalf, the head of the National Security College at Australian National University

CHAPTER 12

The Southeast Asian Young Leaders’ Programme

The Southeast Asian Young Leaders’ Programme

The seventh Southeast Asian Young Leaders’ Programme (SEAYLP) returned with its strongest cohort yet of academics, analysts, politicians, officials and journalists. Of the entire cohort, 25 delegates hailed from all ten ASEAN member states. Seven additional delegates from Australia, Canada, China, Germany, India, South Korea and the United States joined the programme as guests. For the third time, SEAYLP featured representation from four Pacific Island nations: Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Timor-Leste and Tonga. In line with the programme’s long-standing commitment to gender diversity, 21 of the 40 young leaders were women. SEAYLP 2024 was funded by the Australian government, Global Affairs Canada, Google Asia-Pacific and the Singapore Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

ROUNDTABLES ON REGIONAL SECURITY

The programme began with a welcome to the Shangri-La Dialogue given by Dr Bastian Giegerich, IISS Director-General and Chief Executive. Over the

next several hours, the young leaders participated in three roundtable discussions on regional security issues, held under rules of non-attribution.

Dr Evan Laksmana, IISS Senior Fellow for Southeast Asia Military Modernisation; Editor, Asia-Pacific Regional Security Assessment moderated the first discussion, on ‘Seeking stability in the South China Sea’. Panellists from Canada, the Philippines and Vietnam each spoke about their respective countries’ approaches to security challenges in the South China Sea. Of particular concern amongst participants around the table were tensions in the Spratly Islands and their implications for peace and security in the broader region.

Dr Irene Mia , IISS Senior Fellow for Latin America, and Conflict, Security and Development; Editor, Armed Conflict Survey , moderated a second panel, on ‘Transnational crime and the AsiaPacific security order’. Panellists from Cambodia, Indonesia and Thailand spoke about challenges that trans-national organised crime poses along the multinational shores of the Mekong River; through scam

The first roundtable at the Southeast Asian Young Leaders’ Programme

centres in Myanmar and other states; and through illegal, unregulated and unreported fishing.

Aaron Connelly, IISS Senior Fellow for Southeast Asian Politics and Foreign Policy, moderated a final panel, focused on ‘Economic security amid the green transition’. Panellists from China, Malaysia and the US considered how the green transition is leading great powers and middle powers alike to pursue industrial policies to maximise their economic security.

PARTICIPATION IN PLENARY SESSIONS

SEAYLP delegates asked some of the most important questions fielded in the SLD plenary sessions. Justin Baquisal, Resident National Security Analyst at FACTS Asia, asked Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr, President of the Philippines, following his keynote address, about modernisation plans for the Armed Forces of the Philippines. Nyein Nyein Thant Aung, Master’s Candidate at Dublin City University, asked Sébastien Lecornu, French Minister of the Armed Forces, about the use of AI by non-state actors. Dr Hafiizh Hashim, Assistant Lecturer at the Academy of Brunei Studies with the Universiti Brunei Darussalam, asked Richard Marles, Australian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Defence, about ASEAN’s regional role and Australia’s commitment to the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific. Iriana Freitas de Jesus Ximenez,

A SEAYLP discussion moderated by Dr Irene Mia, IISS Senior Fellow for Latin America, and Conflict, Security and Development; Editor, Armed Conflict Survey

PhD Candidate at Flinders University, asked General (Retd) Prabowo Subianto, Indonesian president-elect and Minister for National Defence, about land and maritime boundaries between Indonesia and TimorLeste. Naw Moo Moo Paw, PhD Candidate at the University of Massachusetts Lowell, asked Ingrida Šimonytė, Lithuanian Prime Minister, about countering disinformation. Dr Neth Chanthima, Advisor to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation of Cambodia, asked Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine, whether there should be a ‘collective call’ from Ukraine and its allies for Israel to adhere to humanitarian law.

ENGAGEMENTS WITH SENIOR DEFENCE LEADERS

The delegates also had the opportunity for exclusive engagements with senior leaders during the Dialogue. Dr José Ramos-Horta, President of Timor-Leste, held a roundtable discussion with delegates where he spoke about Timor-Leste’s experience recovering from conflict and pursuing development. Delegates enjoyed discussions with Bill Blair, the Minister for National Defence of Canada, Greg Moriarty, Secretary of the Australian Department of Defence, and General Angus Campbell, Chief of the Australian Defence Force. Dr Vivian Balakrishnan, Singapore’s Minister for Foreign Affairs, held a roundtable discussion following the

conclusion of the Dialogue. All sessions were held under rules of non-attribution.

SOCIAL ENGAGEMENTS AND NETWORKING OPPORTUNITIES

The programme’s activities began on Thursday, 30 May, with a welcome reception at the residence of JeanDominique Ieraci, High Commissioner of Canada in Singapore, where they were greeted by General Wayne Eyre, Canadian Chief of Defence Staff. After a full day of discussions on Friday, 31 May, SEAYLP delegates

continued their discussions at the residence of Allaster Cox, Australian High Commissioner to Singapore. Hugh Jeffrey, Deputy Secretary for Strategy, Policy and Industry at the Australian Department of Defence, congratulated the delegates on their selection. On their final day, the delegates travelled to the residence of Eivind Homme, Norwegian Ambassador to Singapore, for a closing reception following the conclusion of the Dialogue. As a result of the Dialogue, the young leaders will take with them both new friendships and new ideas for collaboration.

Delegates at a roundtable at the Southeast Asian Young Leaders’ Programme

A roundtable at the Southeast Asian Young Leaders’ Programme

APPENDICES

I. Selected digital engagement and media coverage of the 2024 IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

II. Selected IISS publications

Selected digital engagement and media coverage of the 2024 IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

DIGITAL ENGAGEMENT HIGHLIGHTS

The Shangri-La Dialogue led the conversation online. Speeches and coverage from the plenary and special sessions – and all the events which happened behind the scenes in Singapore – generated over 9,300 unique mentions on social media over the weekend. These social conversations reached over 48 million people, with most of the online dialogue happening in the United States, United Kingdom, Asia, Europe and Australia. Plenary speakers and delegates tweeted and retweeted Dialogue-related content. Dialogue highlights and speaker announcements also featured on IISS LinkedIn and Instagram channels, sparking engagement and supporting the event’s visibility globally.

We leveraged our IISS YouTube channel to ensure global audiences could watch the plenary and special sessions live online. In addition, the plenary and special session recordings have so far generated over 194,000 views. Our YouTube playlists also included expert opinions to engage our audiences with prime IISS analysis on the ground in Singapore.

The five most viewed plenary sessions:

• IISS Shangri-La Dialogue 2024: Indonesian presidentelect and Defence Minister General (Retd) Prabowo Subianto Special Address (over 61,000 views)

The SLD playlist section on the IISS YouTube channel

• IISS Shangri-La Dialogue 2024: Fifth plenary session: China’s Approach to Global Security (over 38,000 views)

• IISS Shangri-La Dialogue 2024: Seventh plenary session: Re-imagining Solutions for Global Peace and Regional Stability (over 28,000 views)

• IISS Shangri-La Dialogue 2024: Philippines President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr Keynote Address (over 20,000 views)

• IISS Shangri-La Dialogue 2024: First plenary session: United States’ Strategic Partnerships in the Indo-Pacific (over 8,500 views)

The IISS website was a key communication channel and provided information such as speaker agendas and content related to themes and topics of the Shangri-La Dialogue. It also offered customised landing pages for special sessions and the Southeast Asian Young Leaders’ Programme. Throughout the event, the website was updated with audio recordings, transcripts and additional information on a rolling basis and promoted via our social media channels. The bespoke web pages were viewed over 64,000 times during the week of the Dialogue. We introduced individual web pages for all sessions to support an engaging user experience on www.iiss.org. Each page includes speech and Q&A transcripts, embedded recordings and Flickr images.

The SLD and SEAYLP bespoke web pages on the IISS website

The SLD section on the IISS website

The five most viewed web pages:

• Shangri-La Dialogue 2024 (event page) (over 58,000 views)

• Speaker Agenda (over 6,500 views)

• Seventh Plenary (over 2,500 views)

• Fifth Plenary (over 1,500 views)

• Keynote Address (over 1,400 views)

• Southeast Asian Young Leaders’ Programme (over 1,000 views)

The IISS website also included a link to the IISS Flickr account with highlights from the event.

Our social media and website activities were complemented by special podcast episodes on Sounds Strategic, generating over 3,300 downloads across podcast platforms:

• Pre-event: Sounds Strategic podcast host Meia Nouwens was joined by IISS experts Evan A. Laksmana, Julia Voo, Nick Childs and Viraj Solanki to discuss the upcoming event: IISS Shangri-La Dialogue 2024.

• Post-event: Nouwens was joined by IISS experts Dr Bastian Giegerich, Veerle Nouwens, Dr Ben

Schreer and Morgan Michaels to discuss the key themes and takeaways from the Dialogue on the Sounds Strategic podcast episode IISS Shangri-La Dialogue 2024: Reflections.

The IISS blogs highlighted themes and topics of the Dialogue and were viewed over 10,000 times globally.

IISS Flickr account

IISS Sounds Strategic

ONLINE ANALYSIS

Navigating small-state security in the Indo-Pacific (iiss.org) by Viraj Solanki and Antoine Levesques

A special session at the 21st IISS Shangri-La Dialogue will discuss small island and littoral states’ growing defence cooperation with major powers, and their prospects for shaping it to their advantage.

Coming of age? European defence engagement in the Indo-Pacific (iiss.org) by Ben Schreer

European defence engagement with the Indo-Pacific is increasing. 2024 and 2025 will see expanded deployments and greater participation in regional exercises. This growing presence will face challenges, however, including limited resources and US–China competition.

Contested connectivity: cyber threats in the Asia-Pacific (iiss.org) by Julia Voo

Facing increasing threats in cyberspace, the region is building resilience through partnerships with allied governments and industry.

Myanmar policy at a crossroads (iiss.org) by Morgan Michaels

In light of the junta’s increasingly tenuous hold on Myanmar’s key strategic areas, neighbouring states are having to confront the possibility of regime collapse and rethink their relationships with the country’s various opposition actors.

MILITARY BALANCE BLOG

PLA remains focused on the Asia-Pacific and building resilience (iiss.org) by Meia Nouwens

China’s growing assertiveness and capability advances may make it more difficult for Beijing to paint itself as a peaceful and stabilising actor in the Asia-Pacific region at this year’s IISS Shangri-La Dialogue that kicks off 31 May.

The AUKUS balancing act is not getting easier (iiss.org) by Nick Childs

The AUKUS partners point to real progress in the past year but many of the challenges in delivering nuclearpowered submarines to Australia and co-developing a range of advanced defence technologies look as great as ever.

Asian defence spending grows, China’s grows more (iiss.org) by Fenella McGerty

Security concerns are propelling defence spending in Asia, but despite national increases, China now represents near half of total regional military expenditure.

MEDIA ENGAGEMENT HIGHLIGHTS

A large number of media personnel were present at this year’s Shangri-La Dialogue, with the IISS proud to accommodate over 40 media outlets from around the world. Nearly 300 journalists and broadcasters attended the Dialogue to record and observe events. Here follows a selection of news articles and opinion pieces written by members of the media who attended the Dialogue.

The IISS celebrated the 21st edition of the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue with its global audiences. Convened by the IISS, the world’s media and key opinion formers on security issues in the Asia-Pacific region and beyond gathered at the Dialogue in Singapore. Together, they led the news and drove key conversations online, communicating to their readers, viewers and followers the complexities, subtleties and advantages that in-person defence diplomacy can provide to an increasingly insecure region.

Guardian 2 June 2024

Zelenskiy accuses China of deterring countries from going to peace summit

Volodomyr Zelenskiy has accused China of discouraging other countries from attending a peace summit in Switzerland later this month that is aimed at bringing peace to war-ravaged Ukraine.

Speaking at Asia’s biggest security conference, the Shangri-La Dialogue, in Singapore, the Ukrainian president sought to rally support among Asia-Pacific nations, urging them to attend the Swiss meeting.

‘The world has to be resilient, it needs to be strong, it has to pressure Russia,’ Zelenskiy said. ‘There is no other way to stop Putin – only diplomatic isolation, a strong Ukrainian military and for all the countries of the world to not balance between Ukraine and Russia but to defend international justice and law.’

Zelenskiy said he was ‘disappointed’ some world leaders had not yet confirmed attendance.

Russia was seeking to undermine the summit by warning countries not to attend and threatening a blockade of agricultural goods and food products, he said.

He later told media that China had supported such efforts to deter leaders from participating. ‘Regrettably, Russia, using Chinese influence on the region, using Chinese diplomats also, does everything to disrupt the peace summit. It is unfortunate that such a big, independent, powerful country as China is an instrument in the hands of Putin,’ he said.

Since a phone call between Zelenskiy and the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, one year ago, Ukraine had sought

meetings with Chinese officials at all levels, he said, but this had not been granted. He had not met Chinese officials despite their presence in Singapore.

Earlier on Sunday, the Chinese defence minister, Dong Jun, told attendees of the Shangri-La Dialogue his country had ‘been promoting peace talks with a responsible attitude’. ‘We have never provided weapons to either party of the conflict. We have put stricter control on the export of dual use items and have never done anything to fan the flames. We stand firmly on the side of peace and dialogue,’ Dong said.

But Zelenskiy said: ‘With China’s support to Russia, the war will last longer and that is bad for the whole world. You cannot say that we accept sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine and at the same time be on the side of the country that violates the principles of the UN charter and the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine.’

Zelenskiy said on X he had met the US defence secretary, Lloyd Austin, on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue on Sunday morning. ‘We discussed the key issues: the defence needs of our country, bolstering Ukraine’s air defence system, the F-16 coalition, and drafting of a bilateral security agreement,’ he said.

He said he was grateful to Joe Biden for his decision to allow Ukraine to use US-supplied weapons against targets in Russia. However, in comments to media he said that this was not enough as Ukraine still did not have the systems or permissions to target airfields from which Russia was ‘permanently firing’.

©Guardian Reprinted with permission

Washington Post 2 June 2024

U.S. and China lay out competing security visions for Asia-Pacific

Defense leaders from the United States and China laid out their competing visions of a modern security order in the Indo-Pacific this weekend, with the American side championing Washington’s expanded network of security partnerships, while Chinese officials promoted their own such alliances and cast the United States as a foreign aggressor meddling in Asian affairs.

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and his Chinese counterpart, Dong Jun, each delivered addresses at the Shangri-La Dialogue, an annual international security conference in Singapore — one of the rare settings that brings senior officials from the rival militaries into proximity with one another through panel discussions, dinners and cocktail hours in a luxury hotel. Austin and

Dong also met on the summit’s sidelines on Friday, their first meeting in two years.

Competing rhetoric over the course of the weekend’s debates — much of it referencing recent events, such as China’s spate of large-scale military exercises around Taiwan less than two weeks ago — underscored the sense that regional tensions have grown increasingly incendiary.

The dialogue also allowed the two powers to make their arguments before an international audience of their peers, including defense officials from nearby South Korea, Japan, Vietnam, Indonesia, the Philippines, Cambodia and others — themselves the targets of U.S. and Chinese influence campaigns and the often uncomfortable bystanders to a global strategic power struggle.

Both Austin and Dong appealed to shared values and a respect for international law, without mentioning the other’s country by name, at a conference that nonetheless revolved almost entirely around the U.S.-China relationship.

In his address to the conference Saturday, Austin stressed the United States’ vast and expanding network of security partnerships in the Indo-Pacific — a clear warning to Beijing, observers said, that further Chinese military aggression in the region could prompt a U.S. response.

‘We are operating with our allies and partners like never before,’ Austin said, noting that the United States has recently ‘secured a series of historic agreements with our allies and partners to transform our force posture throughout the Indo-Pacific’.

U.S., Japanese and South Korean forces are training together in ‘unprecedented’ ways, he said. The United States and the Philippines, along with Australia and France, recently completed their largest annual Balikatan joint naval exercise. The United States has also forged new levels of defense cooperation with Australia, Japan, South Korea, Papua New Guinea and the Philippines.

And this was ‘just a starting point,’ Austin added. ‘We are on the verge of even more powerful changes’ in U.S. force posture in the Indo-Pacific, he said.

Dong’s remarks on Sunday largely mirrored Austin’s rhetoric but flipped the claims of respect for international order and allegations of unlawful aggression to blame Washington and its allies and partners. It is China that is committed to peace and that has exercised tremendous ‘restraint’ in the Asia-Pacific region, Dong said, alluding to the United States — without naming it — as a nefarious outsider seeking to influence the affairs of a region where it doesn’t belong. China, too, has vast strategic partnerships around the world, Dong said, as well as the ability and willingness to arm and train other countries in the region. ‘We have a well-established system of military education, and we are ready to provide greater support to other countries in

The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

personnel training and offer tailored courses to meet different needs,’ he said.

In remarks that hewed closely to Beijing’s usual talking points, Dong described China’s aspirations to live in a ‘multipolar world’ — as opposed to one dominated by the United States — and appealed to the rest of the region’s ‘unique Asian wisdom’ and shared experience of “imperialism” from outside forces.

China’s disputes with Taiwan and in the South China Sea were regional issues best resolved between regional states, not by outsiders, he said — again, without referring to the United States.

‘Anyone who dares to separate Taiwan from China will only end up in self-destruction,’ Dong warned.

The growing frustration felt by many of China’s regional neighbors over Chinese intimidation at sea, as well as the criminal and cyberthreats posed by Chinese state-affiliated companies, was also palpable over the weekend, as academics and representatives of other Asian countries that have drawn closer to the United States in recent months picked apart Dong’s claims and accused China of dishonesty.

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., in his opening remarks Friday night, laid out what many interpreted as a warning to China, referring to the ‘illegal, coercive, aggressive and deceptive actions’ that were undermining regional security in territorial waters claimed by the Philippines — a likely reference to intensifying aggression by the Chinese coast guard and maritime militia that has regularly blocked the passage of Philippine ships near disputed islands in recent months.

Marcos’s remarks illustrated the sharp pivot the Philippine government has taken in the past two years, aligning itself more closely with Washington and breaking with the previous administration’s more deferential approach to China. Any ‘willful’ act that led to deaths of Filipinos during the standoff with China would be considered an ‘act of war,’ triggering a U.S. military response under the countries’ mutual defense treaty, Marcos said.

Others also raised objections.

During a question-and-answer session following Dong’s speech on Sunday, Chung Min Lee, an expert on Korean and Northeast Asian security at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, addressed the minister sharply, laying out the contradictions between Dong’s claims of peace and cooperation from the podium and the state-backed cyberattacks against China’s neighbors, its support for North Korea’s dictatorship and the threatening behaviors of its coast guard in contested waters.

‘How can we trust you when your words and your actions are totally opposite?’ Lee asked, prompting applause from the multinational audience.

Meanwhile, when a Chinese military officer and academic at China’s Institute of War Studies, Sr. Col. Cao Yanzhong, suggested Saturday that NATO expansion in Europe ‘led to the Ukraine crisis’, Austin garnered applause when he said he ‘respectfully’ disagreed with that claim.

‘I thought it was striking that there was spontaneous and widespread applause,’ said Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.), who attended the conference after meeting with officials in Taiwan and the Philippines. The notion that the United States and NATO set off the Ukraine war is ‘a narrative that I hear a lot in the Global South,’ he said.

The United States has been able to expand its strategic alliances in the Indo-Pacific ‘in large measure because of the aggressiveness of China’, Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska), another member of the Senate delegation to Singapore, told reporters.

To the smaller nations of Southeast Asia, China is an inescapable ‘geopolitical fact’, Bilahari Kausikan, former ambassador at large for Singapore’s Foreign Ministry, said in an interview. But there is also a growing, albeit often unspoken, acceptance that the United States, too, is an ‘irreplaceable part of the security balance’, Bilahari said. ‘That is not so much a success for U.S. policy as a failure of Chinese policy.’

Even as some Asian officials brooked stronger public dissent with China than in previous years, many were cautious not to take their criticism too far.

Wang Dong, a scholar at Peking University and member of the Chinese delegation to Singapore, observed that no other country’s officials made statements as strong as Marcos’s, saying: ‘The absence of public support for the Marcos position speaks volumes about what other regional countries consider a pragmatic approach.’

Dewi Fortuna Anwar, an Indonesian academic, worried during a question-and-answer session whether the twists and turns of the U.S.–China relationship would leave the rest of the region ‘trampled’. And Singaporean Defense Minister Ng Eng Hen stressed that the region found Washington’s and Beijing’s stated aversion to conflict ‘reassuring’ but also said that ‘most of us here would agree that the U.S. and China are the dominant factors to decide Asia’s fate of this decade and beyond.’

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who made a late arrival to the conference Sunday, also trod carefully around China, criticizing its alleged arms support for Russia but also appealing to Beijing to participate in Ukraine’s upcoming peace summit in Switzerland.

‘We need the support of Asian countries,’ Zelensky said during a news conference. ‘We respect each voice, each territory. … We want Asia to know what is going on in Ukraine.’

©Washington Post Reprinted with permission

Taiwan separatists will be ‘crushed to pieces’, warns China

Taiwan separatists will be ‘crushed to pieces’, China warned at a defence summit on Sunday.

Admiral Dong Jun, used a significant portion of his speech at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore to lash out at the incoming administration of Lai Ching-te, the newly elected Taiwanese president, whom Beijing regards as a ‘dangerous separatist’.

China regards the self-ruling democracy of Taiwan as a breakaway province that must reunify with the mainland.

Adml Dong said that his military was ready to ‘forcefully’ stop attempts by Taiwan from gaining independence.

His comments come a week after China held military ‘punishment’ drills around Taiwan, warning of the risk of conflict after Mr Lai’s inauguration.

The president’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) was pursuing separatism in an incremental way and erasing Taiwan’s Chinese identity, alleged Adml Dong.

‘They [“separatists”] will be nailed to the pillar of shame in history,’ he told a crowded room of Asia-Pacific, European and US defence and intelligence officials.

‘The Chinese People’s Liberation Army has always been an indestructible and powerful force in defence of the unification of the motherland, and it will act resolutely and forcefully at all times to curb the independence of Taiwan and to ensure that it never succeeds in its attempts,’ he said.

‘Whoever dares to split Taiwan from China will be crushed to pieces and suffer his own destruction.’

After being sworn into office, Mr Lai invited China to engage in dialogue with Taiwan and urged Beijing to ‘jointly shoulder the important responsibility of regional stability’.

But the Chinese Communist Party, which claims Taiwan as its own territory despite never ruling there, has snubbed his attempts to talk.

The three-day security forum in Singapore has been dominated by the strategic rivalry between the United States and China and its impact on the Indo-Pacific region.

Adml Dong, who met with Lloyd Austin, the US defence secretary, for the first time face-to-face on Friday, said that more dialogue was necessary because of the differences between the two militaries.

‘We have always been open to exchanges and cooperation, but this requires both sides to meet each other halfway,’ he said.

But he also criticised Washington for its support for the Philippines, which has a number of territorial disputes with Beijing in the South China Sea, and for Taiwan, which receives much of its weaponry from the United States.

‘We will not allow anyone to bring geopolitical conflicts or any war, whether hot or cold, into our region,’ he said.

‘We will not allow any country or any force to create conflict and chaos in our region.’

©Telegraph Reprinted with permission

Straits Times 3 June 2024

Shangri-La Dialogue’s success comes from not skirting issues: Ng Eng Hen

The yardstick for measuring the success of security forums like the Shangri-La Dialogue should be whether real issues have been brought up and discussed, said Singapore’s Defence Minister Ng Eng Hen.

And in his eyes, the dialogue, which ran from May 31 to June 2, has been a success.

The thorny issues of territories contested in the South China Sea and Taiwan’s independence were brought up and discussions were held frankly and robustly, and at a high level, he pointed out.

He cited the examples of China’s Defence Minister Dong Jun making clear his country’s stance on Taiwan in his plenary on June 2, as well as Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr warning of repercussions in the event of Filipino deaths in the South China Sea during his keynote speech on the opening evening.

Dr Ng, who spoke to reporters on the afternoon of the event’s final day, noted that such forums are not the same as bilateral or multilateral negotiations, where more concrete outcomes are sought.

‘That would be a very high bar,’ he said.

Instead, the defence and security professionals who participated in the 2024 Shangri-La Dialogue would have come away with a deeper feel of the thorny issues.

Dr Ng, on the morning of June 2, also spoke at the seventh plenary session of the dialogue, where he expressed appreciation to the participants for attending the event, and for their willingness to engage, listen, and sometimes do verbal combat.

The Shangri-La Dialogue, which is in its 21st edition this year, has come of age, he noted.

‘I think it’s a bit more realistic, less idealistic, but more practical.’

Dr Ng said he was asked by reporters about his experiences with international counterparts at other similar events, such as the Xiangshan Forum in China.

These events tended to reflect the culture of their host countries, said Dr Ng.

He noted that difficult questions were posed in public at Western security forums, while they would appear to be impolite at the Xiangshan Forum.

Nevertheless, he noted that 2024’s delegation from China at the Shangri-La Dialogue has learnt from their past participation, observing that they were quick to call for their own press conferences to issue their own rebuttals and to get their point across.

Touching on Admiral Dong’s debut speech at the plenary session, where the Defence Minister spoke about China’s approach to global security, Dr Ng said it was very clear and articulated China’s point of view.

Dr Ng said that the increasing popularity of the Shangri-La Dialogue was a good outcome, with an increasing number of countries seeking opportunities for their leaders and defence officials to speak at the event.

This has resulted in an increase in the number of special sessions at 2024’s event to cater to the increased demand for speaking opportunities.

The complexity of the logistics needed for the event’s dinner has also been increasing, as more heads of states are now coming, which Dr Ng welcomed.

©Straits Times

Reprinted with permission

New York Times

2 June 2024

In Singapore, China Warns U.S. While Zelensky Seeks Support

The annual Shangri-La Dialogue became a stage for competing demands on U.S. global power, including the war in Ukraine and tensions over Taiwan.

The competing strains on U.S. global power came into sharp focus at a security conference on Sunday, where China accused the United States of stoking tensions around Taiwan and the South China Sea, and President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine was seeking greater support for his embattled country.

These scenes played out at the Shangri-La Dialogue, an annual security forum in Singapore that has long been a barometer of the ups and downs of U.S.-China relations.

This year, the United States Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III and China’s defense minister, Adm. Dong Jun, held talks, something the top defense officials from the two countries have not always done at this gathering. But Admiral Dong made clear that China remained deeply antagonistic to U.S. influence and alliance-building across Asia, especially American support for Taiwan, the island democracy that Beijing claims as its territory.

‘These malign intentions are drawing Taiwan to the dangers of war,’ Admiral Dong told the meeting after making an oblique but unmistakable reference to U.S. military and political support for Taiwan. ’’Anyone who dares split Taiwan from China will be smashed to pieces and court their own destruction.’’

Admiral Dong’s warnings, like other combative comments from Chinese military officers at the meeting, reflected how Beijing and Washington remain sharply divided over some fundamental regional issues, even as they discuss ways to keep military friction at sea and in the air from spiraling into crisis.

Last month, China held two days of menacing military exercises around Taiwan, accusing its new president, Lai Ching-te, of trying to advance independence for the island.

Mr. Lai’s Democratic Progressive Party has asserted that Taiwan has a separate status, though Mr. Lai has indicated that he will not seek outright independence.

Mr. Austin warned in a speech on Saturday against ‘’actions in this region that erode the status quo and threaten peace and stability,’’ an indirect reference to Chinese pressure on Taiwan. Mr. Austin also said ’’we all share an interest in ensuring that the South China Sea remains open and free,’’ despite Chinese territorial claims across the sea.

But Admiral Dong accused an unnamed Southeast Asian country – clearly the Philippines – of stirring up trouble over disputed islands and shoals in the sea, and again suggested that the United States was the real culprit.

‘A certain country, incited by external forces, has abandoned bilateral agreements, broken its promises, and taken premeditated action to stir up incidents,’ he said in his speech to diplomats, military officials and experts, many from Asian countries. ’China has exercised sufficient restraint in responding to these provocations, but this restraint has its limits.’

The Philippines has been at odds with China over their rival claims in the South China Sea, in an area that Manila calls the West Philippine Sea. In 2016, an international tribunal under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea rejected China’s expansive claims in the South China Sea, which included shoals near the Philippines. Beijing ignored that ruling.

At the meeting in Singapore, the president of the Philippines, Ferdinand Marcos Jr., warned on Friday that his government could call on support from the United States under a mutual defense treaty in the event that a Chinese vessel caused the death of a Philippine sailor.

A U.S. official who heard Admiral Dong’s speech took issue with his portrayal of China and its People’s Liberation Army as the innocent victim in regional disputes. The official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss geopolitical tensions, said the admiral’s assertion was at odds with the Chinese military’s ‘coercive activity’ in the region.

Even in Singapore, Mr. Austin and other Western officials were also reminded that Ukraine’s more than two-year war against Russian invasion continues to demand their leaders’ attention and their taxpayers’ resources.

Mr. Zelensky was a last-minute addition to the gathering. He met on Sunday with Mr. Austin, who provided an update on U.S. security assistance, according to a

Pentagon readout of the meeting, before Mr. Zelensky addressed the conference.

Faced with Russian military advances in his country, Mr. Zelensky has been urging the United States and Europe to step up support for his forces and overcome fears about letting Ukraine fire American missiles and other weapons at military targets inside Russia.

He was greeted with loud applause before delivering a 15-minute speech promoting a peace summit on Ukraine in Switzerland next month that he said officials from 106 countries had agreed to join. He appealed to leaders across the Indo-Pacific to support the gathering with their attendance or ideas.

‘We are ready to hear various proposals and thoughts that lead not to the continuation of the war – and this is very important – but to the end,’ he said. He added that only diplomacy with persistence would end the conflict.

‘The world has to be resilient; it has to be strong; it has to put pressure on Russia,’ he told the gathering. ‘There is no other way to stop Putin.’

Analysts said his appearance showed the increased interconnectedness among security issues worldwide.

‘It’s a reminder to countries in Asia and the Indo-Pacific that the war taking place in Ukraine isn’t just a European problem. It’s a problem for the world,’ said Bonnie S. Glaser, managing director of the Indo-Pacific program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States.

‘Zelensky recognizes that he has to go out and remind the world to continue to support the fight that his country is engaged in,’ said Ms. Glaser, who was at the Singapore conference.

Mr. Zelensky said on social media that he also had met with U.S. Congress members at the gathering in Singapore, including Representative Michael McCaul of Texas, a Republican who is the chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. Mr. Zelensky thanked him for helping win approval in April for additional military assistance for Ukraine, but also suggested more was needed.

‘We talked about the frontline situation and military assistance, particularly additional systems and missiles to strengthen our air defense,’ Mr. Zelensky said.

©New York Times

Reprinted with permission

Thirty five years ago today: Nothing happened in Tiananmen Square, according to China. (Even though the military crackdown of student protests at Tiananmen Square was well-documented all over the world.)

Ukraine gets tough on China Angry at Putin’s best buddy: Arriving in Singapore via Stockholm and Abu Dhabi, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy didn’t disappoint the hundreds of journalists cramped in the Shangri-La Hotel in Singapore, where Asia’s premier security conference took place last weekend.

He issued a rare rebuke of Beijing, after years of careful attempts to court China and peel it away from its ’no limits’ friendship with Russia.

‘Russia, using Chinese influence on the region, using Chinese diplomats also, does everything to disrupt the peace summit,’ Zelenskyy said Sunday during a press conference, referring to the planned event in Switzerland on June 15-16.

He went on to paint China as Russia’s military backer. ‘We do not expect military support from China. We have never asked them … But we do not expect China to provide defense support to Russia,’ Zelenskyy said.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping ‘promised me China would stand aside, would not support Russia with weapons. Today, there is intelligence that somehow, some way, some things come to Russia’s markets via China … elements of Russia’s weaponry come from China,’ he added.

Xi ghosts me: ‘Many times we have wanted to meet Chinese representatives,’ including Xi, Zelenskyy said. ’Unfortunately, Ukraine does not have any powerful connections with China because China does not want it.’ Read here for the full story by Zoya, Suzanne and Stuart.

Ukraine plays nice with China no more: Zelenskyy’s unusually harsh stance on Beijing comes shortly after China refused to take part in the Swiss summit. China says it’s impossible for it to go, as Russia’s not invited.

China hit back at Zelenskyy: Beijing, which won’t show up at the Swiss conference, ‘[is] certainly not against the peace summit hosted by Switzerland’, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning told journalists on Monday, in response to Zelenskyy’s criticism.

Politico 4 June 2024

Beijing riles Zelenskyy and Marcos

Hello China watchers. This is Stuart Lau in Singapore, covering the Shangri-La Dialogue this past weekend with my colleagues Suzanne Lynch and Zoya Sheftalovich. Your U.S.–China dossier will come from Phelim Kine on Thursday, as usual.

The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

‘Hegemony and strong-arm politics is not China’s diplomatic style … There is no such thing as exerting pressure on other countries.’ She added that China ‘also values the relationship with Ukraine’.

China in Shangri-La Beijing ain’t here to make friends: while few expected China’s new Defense Minister Adm. Dong Jun to go soft at Shangri-La, many delegates were still surprised at his harsh words on Taiwan and the Philippines, two of the biggest headaches facing China’s policymakers.

Fighting talk: ‘China stays committed to peaceful reunification. However, this prospect is increasingly being eroded by separatists for Taiwan independence and foreign forces,’ Dong said. ‘We will take resolute actions to curb Taiwan independence and make sure such a plot never succeeds.’

U.S. calls for calm: The Chinese military action was worrying enough to prompt U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to urge Dong not to ‘use Taiwan’s political transition — part of a normal, routine democratic process — as a pretext for coercive measures’.

The bilateral meeting also saw Austin make clear ‘that the United States will continue to fly, sail, and operate — safely and responsibly — wherever international law allows.’ He ‘underscored the importance of respect for high seas freedom of navigation guaranteed under international law, especially in the South China Sea’, the Pentagon said in a statement

Let’s talk: Austin and his Chinese counterpart will launch a bilateral grouping to address potential U.S.-China military crises. The two officials discussed ‘plans to convene a crisis-communications working group by the end of the year’, in their first-ever meeting on Friday. Senior former military officials have warned that the current state of U.S.-China military crisis communications systems are highly unreliable.

EU meets Dong: The new Chinese defense chief met the EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell and French minister of the armed forces Sébastien Lecornu. Borrell told POLITICO he had a ‘robust’ meeting with Dong, saying he raised concerns over Taiwan and circumvention of EU sanctions against Russia.

The French, meanwhile, called on China to do more on nuclear non-proliferation, and discussed with Dong the side-by-side military bases in the East African state of Djibouti, with Paris keen on maintaining communication with Beijing on the activities of the two bases.

Dutch warship: Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren wasn’t pleased with China’s behavior in the South China Sea. Speaking to China Watcher in Singapore, Ollongren said while a Dutch warship passed through the Taiwan Strait uneventfully, a Dutch helicopter was being followed by a Chinese counterpart, despite the airspace being international. ‘That was remarkable,’ she said. ‘We were in international waters, and our helicopter was in the air, but also in the international part.’

Next big problem — Philippines: Apart from Taiwan, China also got furious about the Philippines, whose President Ferdinand ‘Bongbong’ Marcos used an opening speech at Shangri-La to hit out at Beijing’s maritime behavior, warning that the killing of a Filipino citizen in such incidents could be construed as an act of war.

Crossing the Rubicon: ‘We had already suffered injury, but thank God, we have not yet gotten to the point where

any of our participants, civilian or otherwise, have been killed,’ said Marcos. ‘But once we get to that point, certainly we would have crossed the Rubicon. Is that a red line? Almost certainly it’s going to be a red line.’

Beijing retorts: ‘Those remarks disregard history and facts and are designed to amplify the Philippines’ wrongful position on the issues concerning the South China Sea and deliberately distort and hype up the maritime situation,’ the Chinese Foreign Ministry said in a lengthy response.

The Philippines, it went on, ‘frequently infringed on China’s rights, accusing Manila of provoking the Chinese coast guard.

Looking at you, Washington: ‘Who exactly does the Philippine foreign policy serve now? Whose bidding is the Philippines doing with all these maritime actions?’ the Chinese government statement said. ‘The answer is pretty clear to anyone with sound judgement.’

Commerce chiefs in Europe

Trade chiefs back in Europe: Less than two months after a visit to France, China’s Commerce Minister Wang Wentao was back in Europe again, as Beijing makes a lastminute diplomatic charm offensive against the EU’s plan to impose tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. Speaking in Spain on Sunday, Wang threatened to take retaliatory action if the EU were to do so.

‘China takes note of the repeated remarks by the French, German and EU leaders to avoid a trade war,’ Wang said. ‘If the Europeans act differently, and keep suppressing Chinese companies, China will take all necessary measures to firmly safeguard the legitimate interests of Chinese businesses.’

‘The risk of China-EU trade friction is constantly on the rise,’ he added.

What did he see? An EV plant of course! During his Spanish visit, Wang checked out a plant co-run by Spain’s auto company Ebro-EV Motors and China’s Chery Automobile. The plant is one of China’s moves to localize electric vehicle production on European soil. Wang had this message to Chery’s management: Speed up the production line, help contribute to Spain’s economy and employment. ‘Europe should abandon protectionism,’ Wang added.

Deputy in Greece: Vice Commerce Minister Ling Ji meanwhile also spent his weekend in Europe. Inspecting Chinese companies in Greece, Ling had an even tougher message for Europe. ‘Since this year, the EU has disregarded the complementary cooperation between China and EU member states,’ Ling said. ‘China will absolutely not allow the EU to play the old tricks again.’

UK–China

MI6 ‘spy’ under arrest: China on Monday accused Britain’s Secret Intelligence Service (MI6) of recruiting a couple who worked for the Beijing government to spy for the U.K., less

than a month after London arrested three people on suspicion of spying for the Hong Kong government.

The Chinese Ministry of State Security said on its WeChat account that MI6 operatives convinced a man surnamed Wang, who worked in a ‘core confidential role’ in the central state apparatus, to defect along with his wife, surnamed Zhou. AFP has more.

Translating Washington

Campbell, Ma meeting readouts evoke yawns: Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell and visiting Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu recited their standard positions on U.S.–China hot button issues in a meeting last week. Campbell raised Biden administration concerns including tensions across the Taiwan Strait, China Coast Guard incursions into Philippine waters of the South China Sea and China’s support for Russia’s war on Ukraine, said a State Department statement published Friday. Ma parried with Beijing’s usual rebuttals to those concerns while criticizing the administration’s China policy of ‘seeking dialogue and cooperation while undermining China’s interests,’ said a Chinese Foreign Ministry readout of the meeting published Friday. Ma spiced up his encounter with Campbell by describing the Biden administration’s ‘small yard and high fence’ strategy behind U.S. restrictions on high technology exports to China as the ‘iron curtain in the big yard.’

New visa restrictions for HK officials: The Biden administration will impose visa restrictions on implicated Hong Kong officials as a reprisal for the guilty verdicts against 14 of the territory’s pro-democracy activists on Thursday. The administration ‘is taking steps to impose new visa restrictions on PRC and Hong Kong officials responsible for implementing the National Security Law’, State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said in a statement Friday. Lawmakers are primed to pile-on. Congress ‘will consider a range of actions to hold the PRC and the Hong Kong government accountable for this grave injustice’, Senate Foreign Relations Committee chair Ben Cardin (D-Md.) said in a statement Friday. Hong Kong authorities aren’t pleased. The visa restrictions ‘smack of despicable political manipulation to intimidate PRC and HKSAR officials who resolutely safeguard national security’, the Hong Kong government said in a statement Saturday

Rahm roasts China’s Ukraine war narrative: U.S. Ambassador to Japan, Rahm Emanuel, took to social media to rebuke a Chinese military official who blamed Russia’s war on Ukraine on NATO expansion in Europe. ‘China is lipsynching Russia’s excuse for its war with Ukraine by blaming @NATO—the alliance didn’t expand east. Poland, Romania, Lithuania, Latvia, and others expanded West,’ Emanuel said on X on Sunday. That was a response to an assertion by Chinese Snr. Col. Cao Yanzhong at the Shangri-La Dialogue on Saturday that ’The eastern expansion of NATO has led to the Ukraine crisis,’ per the Associated Press

Nikkei

Asia 3 June 2024

with permission

China vs. U.S., Zelenskyy appears: 5 takeaways from Shangri-La forum

High-ranking defense officials and government leaders from around the world made contrasting arguments in working toward regional peace and stability over the weekend in Singapore at the annual Shangri-La Dialogue security summit.

At times, delegates did not see eye-to-eye on a variety of issues, with the event serving as a platform for the U.S. and China to propose differing mechanisms for partnerships and cooperation in the region.

The summit also threw a spotlight on drawn-out tensions and conflicts, from maritime disputes in the South China Sea to Israel’s military campaign in the Gaza Strip, as well as Russia’s ongoing war with Ukraine, amid closed-door meetings involving top military brass as diplomacy was pursued not just on the conference’s stage, but behind the scenes.

Here are five takeaways from the three-day event.

The U.S. and China offer competing visions for regional cooperation

The world’s two largest economies presented distinct pathways for regional cooperation at the Shangri-La Dialogue. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Saturday sold America›s vision of a sweeping network of partnerships with countries in the Indo-Pacific.

He described a ‘new convergence’ of stronger and more resilient links in the region not tied to a single alliance or coalition, but ‘overlapping and complementary initiatives and institutions’. Austin emphasized that the U.S. is ‘all-in’ on its commitment to the Indo-Pacific.

His Chinese counterpart, Defense Minister Dong Jun, in contrast, spoke of his country’s ‘five principles of peaceful coexistence’ – mutual respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, mutual non-aggression, non-interference in each other’s internal affairs, equality and mutual benefit, and peaceful coexistence.

‘Our people are against any attempt to turn our countries into vassal states or draw us into bloc confrontations,’ he said. ‘Our people despise those who attempt to bolster themselves by taking orders from hegemonic powers.’

China doubles down on its position on Taiwan Amid ratcheting up of cross-strait tensions in recent weeks as Taiwan welcomed its new President Lai Ching-te from the island›s pro-sovereignty Democratic Progressive Party,

The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

China came out in force to reiterate its stand on the ’One China’ policy – which rules out any separation from the mainland of the territory.

The Communist Party government in Beijing sees Taiwan as its own even though it has not controlled it, with China’s Defense Minister Dong Jun spending half the time of a question-and-answer session he participated in at the Shangri-La Dialogue on Sunday staking his country’s claim on the island.

Dong spoke strongly against Taiwan separatism, talking of ‘resolute actions’ to curb any move toward the island’s independence, while warning of ‘selfdestruction’ for those who dare keep the territory and China apart.

‘We do not know what is “self-destruction”, but usually China does not threaten outside of its zone of influence,’ Cedomir Nestorovic, professor of Geopolitics at ESSEC Business School, told Nikkei Asia. ‘The term is vague, so it is left for interpretation. Still, it is the first time China uses this term.’

U.S. Defense Chief Lloyd Austin expressed concern on Friday over ‘provocative’ activity by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army. The comments came about a week after China conducted large military drills encircling Taiwan and its outlying islands.

Zelenskyy makes surprise visit, accuses China of undermining peace summit

In a surprise in-person appearance, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy flew to Singapore to shore up support for a world ‘peace summit’ scheduled for June 15-16 in Switzerland that will focus on nuclear security, food security and humanitarian issues. One hundred six countries and 75 heads of state have confirmed their participation, he said.

‘We need the support of Asian countries,’ Zelenskyy told reporters on Sunday. In particular, Ukraine has been seeking to persuade more of the emerging countries of the so-called Global South to attend, including China, which has said it will not participate without representation from Russia. China is seen as a vital pillar of support for Russian President Vladimir Putin.

But the Ukrainian leader on Sunday accused Beijing of working with Moscow to prevent countries from attending the upcoming forum. Zelenskyy said Russia is using China’s regional influence and its diplomats to disrupt the summit. ‘It is unfortunate that such a big, independent, powerful country as China is an instrument in the hands of Putin,’ he said.

Philippines’ Marcos blasts China, bolsters South China Sea stance

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., who delivered the keynote speech at the forum, blasted China’s ‘illegal, coercive, aggressive, and deceptive actions’ without naming

the country. Responding to a Chinese general’s question, Marcos curtly said that if South China Sea tensions result in the death of a Filipino citizen, it would ‘be close to an act of war.’

His response to the Chinese official’s question raised the stakes, particularly on what incidents could trigger the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty with the U.S. In previous pronouncements, Marcos said the treaty would be invoked if a Filipino serviceman died from a foreign attack.

‘I hope that gives China some pause,’ Julio Amador, CEO of Amador Research Services in Manila, told Nikkei Asia. ‘Because that would mean that what they’re doing will be a trigger to invoking the treaty.’

Filipino officials who attended the forum, including Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro, said in a statement following his Saturday meeting with his U.S. counterpart Lloyd Austin that the U.S. welcomed Marcos’ ‘eloquent’ keynote speech.

Philippine coast guard chief Admiral Ronnie Gavan told reporters he was pleased with Marcos’ speech, noting humanitarian missions to Scarborough Shoal will continue ‘because it is our fundamental duty to defend and protect.’

Indonesia and Malaysia voice concern over Israel-Hamas war Despite being geographically distant from the AsiaPacific, the ongoing Middle East crisis was among the focal points at the Singapore security forum, with defense leaders of the Muslim-majority nations Indonesia and Malaysia voicing concerns over the dire situation in the Gaza Strip.

In a special address on Saturday, Indonesia’s Defense Minister and President-elect Prabowo Subianto said the new proposal from Israel calling for a cease-fire with the Palestinian group Hamas is an ‘important right step’ to end the eight-month war. Indonesia, the world’s most populous Muslim nation, has no formal ties with Israel.

As part of this new proposal, Prabowo vowed Indonesia is ready to contribute ‘significant’ peacekeeping forces to maintain and monitor the prospective cease-fire if needed and requested by the United Nations. The incoming leader said the Southeast Asian country is also prepared to evacuate and treat up to 1,000 patients from Gaza.

During the final session on Sunday, Malaysian Defense Minister Mohamed Khaled Nordin applauded Prabowo’s remarks, echoing the comments that Kuala Lumpur ‘certainly welcomes and supports any proposal’ that will achieve the immediate and permanent cease-fire.

The Malaysian defense chief concluded his speech by suggesting the annual Singapore defense forum invite a representative from Palestine for future events.

©Nikkei Asia

Reprinted with permission

Selected IISS publications

The Strategic Dossier series harnesses the Institute’s technical expertise to present detailed information on key strategic issues. Recent publications include:

IISS, Asia-Pacific Regional Security Assessment 2024 (London: IISS, 2024)

IISS, Asia-Pacific Regional Security Assessment 2023 (London: IISS, 2023)

Survival: Global Politics and Strategy, the Institute’s bimonthly journal, is a leading forum for analysis and debate of international and strategic affairs. Recent articles of interest include:

James Adams, David C. Gompert and Thomas Knudson, ‘From Quad to Quint? Vietnam’s Strategic Potential’, Survival, vol. 66, no. 1, February–March 2024, pp. 57–65.

Jon B. Alterman, ‘The “China Model” in the Middle East’, Survival, vol. 66, no. 2, April–May 2024, pp. 75–98.

Hans Binnendijk and David C. Gompert, ‘Towards Nuclear Stewardship with China’, Survival, vol. 65, no. 1, February–March 2023, pp. 7–20.

Lotje Boswinkel, ‘Forever Bound? Japan’s Road to Self-defence and the US Alliance’, Survival, vol. 66, no. 3, June–July 2024, pp. 105–28.

Andrew Carr, ‘Australia’s Archipelagic Deterrence’, Survival, vol. 65, no. 4, August–September 2023, pp. 79–100.

Nick Childs, ‘The AUKUS Anvil: Promise and Peril’, Survival, vol. 65, no. 5, October–November 2023, pp. 7–24.

James Crabtree and Evan A. Laksmana, ‘The Philippines’ Surprising Veer West’, Survival, vol. 65, no. 3, June–July 2023, pp. 81–9.

Toby Dalton and Jina Kim, ‘Rethinking Arms Control with a Nuclear North Korea’, Survival, vol. 65, no. 1, February–March 2023, pp. 21–48.

Linde Desmaele, ‘US Security Assurances and Nuclear Tripolarity’, Survival , vol. 66, no. 2, April–May 2024, pp. 143–56.

James Dobbins, ‘War With China’, Survival, vol. 65, no. 4, August–September 2023, pp. 221–38. [Originally published in 2012]

Mathieu Duchâtel, ‘Europe’s China Problem: How Not to Feed Beijing’s Military-Civil Fusion’, Survival, vol. 65, no. 4, August–September 2023, pp. 55–78.

Andrew B. Kennedy, ‘The Resiliency Requirement: Responding to China’s Rise as a Technology Power’, Survival, vol. 65, no. 1, February–March 2023, pp. 115–28.

Lynn Kuok, ‘Asia’s Ukraine Problem’, Survival, vol. 65, no. 2, April–May 2023, pp. 43–51.

Lynn Kuok, ‘China’s Legal Diplomacy’, Survival, vol. 65, no. 6, December 2023–January 2024, pp. 159–78.

Charlie Laderman, ‘Time Is Short: Ukraine, Taiwan and the Echoes of 1941’, Survival, vol. 65, no. 6, December 2023–January 2024, pp. 77–90.

Zeno Leoni and Sarah Tzinieris, ‘The Return of Geopolitical Blocs’, Survival, vol. 66, no. 2, April–May 2024, pp. 37–54.

Antoine Levesques, ‘India’s Fraying Restraint’, Survival, vol. 66, no. 2, April–May 2024, pp. 63–71.

Baocheng Liu and Hilton L. Root, ‘The United States, China and the Dispersal of Power’, Survival, vol. 66, no. 1, February–March 2024, pp. 125–38.

Adam Mount, ‘The US and South Korea: The Trouble with Nuclear Assurance’, Survival, vol. 65, no. 2, April–May 2023, pp. 123–40.

Hanna Notte, ‘Russia, the Global South and the Mechanics of the Nuclear Order’, Survival, vol. 66, no. 3, June–July 2024, pp. 49–57.

Hilton L. Root, ‘Civilisational Conflict’, Survival, vol. 66, no. 3, June–July 2024, pp. 43–8.

Steve Tsang, ‘Getting China Right’, Survival, vol. 65, no. 4, August–September 2023, pp. 43–54.

Robert Ward, ‘A Fragile Convergence: the US–Japan–South Korea Camp David Summit’, Survival, vol. 65, no. 5, October–November 2023, pp. 25–36.

Robert Ward, ‘Another Special Relationship? The United States and Japan’, Survival, vol. 66, no. 3, June–July 2024, pp. 201–12.

James J. Wirtz, ‘The US Navy and the Western Pacific’, Survival, vol. 66, no. 1, February–March 2024, pp. 139–44.

Lanxin Xiang, ‘Biden’s Misguided China Policy’, Survival, vol. 66, no. 3, June–July 2024, pp. 91–104.

The Adelphi series is the Institute’s principal contribution to policy-relevant, original academic research. Books published since 2023 include:

Aaron Connelly and Shona Loong, New Answers to Old Questions: Myanmar Before and After the 2021 Coup d’État, Adelphi 505–507 (Abingdon: Routledge for the IISS, 2024).

Francis J. Gavin, The Taming of Scarcity and the Problems of Plenty: Rethinking International Relations and American Grand Strategy in a New Era, Adelphi 502–504 (Abingdon: Routledge for the IISS, 2024).

Robert Ward, Yuka Koshino and Matthieu Lebreton (eds), Japan and the IISS: Connecting Western and Japanese Strategic Thought from the Cold War to the War on Ukraine, Adelphi 498–501 (Abingdon: Routledge for the IISS, 2023).

Iskander Rehman, Planning for Protraction: A Historically Informed Approach to Great-power War and Sino-US Competition, Adelphi 496–497 (Abingdon: Routledge for the IISS, 2023).

Lawrence Freedman and Heather Williams, Changing the Narrative: Information Campaigns, Strategy and Crisis Escalation in the Digital Age, Adelphi 493–495 (Abingdon: Routledge for the IISS, 2023).

Euan Graham, Australia’s Security in China’s Shadow, Adelphi 490–492 (Abingdon: Routledge for the IISS, 2023).

The Military Balance is the Institute’s annual assessment of military capabilities and defence economics worldwide. Region-by-region analyses cover the major military and economic trends and developments affecting security policy and the trade in weapons and other military equipment. Comprehensive tables portray key data on weapons and defence economics. Defence expenditure trends over a ten-year period are also shown. It builds on the Military Balance+ database that provides updates on data and policy throughout the year.

IISS, The Military Balance 2024 (Abingdon: Routledge for the IISS, 2024)

IISS, The Military Balance 2023 (Abingdon: Routledge for the IISS, 2023)

The Institute’s research team also publishes free reports and assessments. These extended pieces of analysis are an indispensable resource for those who wish to understand key strategic questions in much greater depth.

Greg Austin, Quantum Sensing: Comparing the United States and China (London: IISS, 2024).

Veerle Nouwens, Timothy Wright, Euan Graham and Blake Herzinger, Long-range Strike Capabilities in the Asia-Pacific: Implications for Regional Stability (London: IISS, 2024).

Jeffrey Lewis and Kolja Brockmann, Missile Proliferation and Control in the Asia-Pacific Region (London: IISS, 2024).

Kai Lin Tay, ASEAN Cyber-security Cooperation: Towards a Regional Emergency-response Framework (London: IISS, 2023).

Simona R. Soare, Pavneet Singh and Meia Nouwens, Softwaredefined Defence: Algorithms at War (London: IISS, 2023).

Shiloh Fetzek, Carbon Emissions, Net Zero and Future Forces –Comparative Analysis of Radical Emissions-reductions Plans and Processes for Defence (London: IISS, 2023).

Greg Austin and Natallia Khaniejo, Impact of the Russia–Ukraine War on National Cyber Planning: A Survey of Ten Countries (London: IISS, 2023).

The Armed Conflict Survey is the Institute’s annual review of political, military and humanitarian trends in current conflicts.

IISS, Armed Conflict Survey 2023 (Abingdon: Routledge for the IISS, 2023)

IISS, Armed Conflict Survey 2024 (Abingdon: Routledge for the IISS, 2024)

Strategic Comments is the Institute’s online source of analysis of international security and politicomilitary issues. Articles on the Indo-Pacific region published in 2023–24 include:

‘US summitry with Japan and the Philippines’, Strategic Comments, vol. 30, no. 13, May 2024.

‘Developments in South Korea’s defence industry’, Strategic Comments, vol. 30, no. 9, April 2024.

‘The tit-for-tat conflict between Iran and Pakistan’, Strategic Comments, vol. 30, no. 4, March 2024.

‘The launch of the first agreement under the US Indo-Pacific Economic Framework’, Strategic Comments, vol. 30, no. 3, February 2024.

‘The challenge to Islamabad from the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan’, Strategic Comments, vol. 30, no. 1, January 2024.

‘Shifting threat perceptions on the Korean Peninsula’, Strategic Comments, vol. 29, no. 40, December 2023.

‘India’s defence-industrial partnership with the UK’, Strategic Comments, vol. 29, no. 36, November 2023.

‘The surge of activity in relations between North Korea and Russia’, Strategic Comments, vol. 29, no. 30, October 2023.

‘The first China–Central Asia Summit’, Strategic Comments, vol. 29, no. 29, October 2023.

‘Qin Gang’s disappearance and shifts in party–state relations in China’s foreign policymaking’, Strategic Comments, vol. 29, no. 27, September 2023.

‘Emerging security challenges on the island of Borneo’, Strategic Comments, vol. 29, no. 25, September 2023.

‘Technology trade controls and US–China competition’, Strategic Comments, vol. 29, no. 23, August 2023.

‘Cambodia’s political succession and the next government’s external policies’, Strategic Comments , vol. 29, no. 17, July 2023.

‘A progressive victory in Thailand’s 2023 general election’, Strategic Comments, vol. 29, no. 12, June 2023.

‘Australia’s 2023 Defence Strategic Review’, Strategic Comments, vol. 29, no. 9, May 2023.

‘Vietnam: leadership turnover and foreign-policy implications’, Strategic Comments, vol. 29, no. 5, March 2023.

‘The state of China–Russia cooperation over natural gas’, Strategic Comments, vol. 29, no. 4, February 2023.

‘Japan’s new national-security and defence strategies’, Strategic Comments, vol. 29, no. 1, January 2023.