IISS Newsletter Winter 2016

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Winter 2016

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IISS Manama Dialogue . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

Future Conflict And Cyber Security . . . . . . . 14

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South Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

Non-Proliferation and Nuclear Policy . . . . . 15

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Security and Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

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Armed Conflict . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

IISS–Americas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

Defence and Military Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

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Obituary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

Enhancing Middle East security and stability

IISS Manama Dialogue 2016 Full Report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1–9

South Asia Security Conference 10th Track 1.5 Oman Summit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

This year’s IISS Manama Dialogue, the 12th Regional

But the broader conflicts in those countries continue, with

Security Summit, held on 9–11 December 2016, was

a sustained Russian role in the latter and growing concern

attended by delegates from 40 countries, including senior

about the expansion of Iranian influence. The attraction of

ministers, top officials, diplomats, political leaders, and

extremist ideologies remains a powerful if contested factor

military and intelligence chiefs. It took place two days

in debate about the future of the Middle East state system.

after the 37th Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Summit,

The emergence of Saudi Arabia as a more assertive power,

also in Bahrain. This was the first GCC summit addressed

most obviously in Yemen, and the future of Saudi–Iranian

by a British Prime Minister and, in a marked and signifi-

relations have also become hot topics. And all this is set

cant symmetry, British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson

against the broader prospect of an incoming United

gave the Keynote address at the Manama Dialogue’s

States administration, political turbulence in Europe, new

opening dinner. He reviewed the history of Britain’s rela-

urgency about economic reform and continuing pressure

tionship with the Gulf, and Bahrain in particular, and set

on global energy producers. Energy prices have shown

the scene for three days of discussion about the role Gulf,

signs of recovery since the November OPEC meeting in

Arab and other international actors might play in enhanc-

Vienna, but their future direction is still unclear.

ing security and stability in the region.

The Gulf and wider Middle East continue to be the site

The world has moved on significantly since the 2015

of major global challenges with serious policy implica-

IISS Manama Dialogue. The Islamic State, also known as

tions, not just for the states of the region but for the US,

ISIS or ISIL, has been pushed back hard in Iraq and Syria.

the EU, Asia and Russia. There is increasing agreement on

EU Non-Proliferation Conference Event Summary . . . . . . . . . . . 15

Everyone Loses New Adelphi Book . . . . . . . . . . 16

MANAMA DIALOGUE

Sky News Arabia Opening Televised Plenary (l–r): Ellen Laipson, Distinguished Fellow and President Emeritus, Stimson Center, US; Member of the Council, IISS; Ayad Allawi, Vice President, Iraq; General (Retd) David Petraeus, Chairman, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts and Co, US; Prince Turki Al Faisal Al Saud, Chairman, King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies, Saudi Arabia; and Fadila Souissi, Presenter, Sky News Arabia

the need for more effective collective responses.

Keynote Speech

trip to Bahrain followed visits by Prime Minister

As yet the delivery of such responses is patchy.

‘Britain is back East of Suez ... active in and

Theresa May and the Prince of Wales in the year

But the IISS Manama Dialogue remains the most

deeply committed to the region.’ This was the

marking the 200th anniversary of friendship

important regional platform helping decision-

strong message of friendship delivered by British

between the United Kingdom and Bahrain.

makers in the region and beyond reach this goal

Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson in his opening

The Foreign Secretary described as a mistake

– through high-level discussions in plenary and

address at the 2016 IISS Manama Dialogue. He

Britain’s decision to disengage from the region

special sessions, and the facilitation of bilateral

went on to say: ‘This is not just about politics,

in 1968 and made clear that shared interests – in

contacts. We are again profoundly grateful to the

not just about trade, not just about strategic sup-

political, economic and military terms – made

Kingdom of Bahrain and its Foreign Ministry for

port. This is about building on and intensifying

close cooperation more important than ever. In

their gracious and continued support, and to all

old friendships. Britain has been part of [the

particular, the challenges of regional and global

government and non-government participants

Gulf] story for the last 200 years, and we will be

instability required multinational approaches,

for their active contributions.

with you for the centuries to come.’ Johnson’s

including a global effort to defeat ISIS. Other challenges in the region included relations with Iran, the security, political and humanitarian

Boris Johnson, Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs, UK

crisis in Yemen, and setting the basis for a political solution that would ensure lasting peace in Syria once ISIS was defeated.

Importantly, and in spite of the UK’s growing military presence in the region, renewed military ties with local partners and a plan to spend £3 billion in military commitments over the coming decade, the Foreign Secretary was clear that military solutions alone would be insufficient. Instead, he argued for helping local leaders find local answers to the many social and economic challenges faced by the citizens of Gulf countries. He said young people, above all, needed ‘the prospect of an exciting economic future’ and, in this respect, the UK could work closely with regional allies to promote economic opportunities.

Recalling his experiences as Mayor of London, Johnson discussed the impact of the Gulf on the capital, from ever growing invest-

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term, he was more concerned by the threat from politically connected militias in Iraq than by ISIS. Allawi and Petraeus also argued for a constructive US approach to Russia in the region.

Petraeus said the incoming US president should recognise that the objective of preserving a united Syrian state was no longer tenable; the US objective now should be to halt the fighting, and in that regard it might be possible to find common ground with Russia’s interests.

Allawi claimed that Russia was committed to crushing ISIS, despite limited evidence in the region for this assertion, and he called for deeper cooperation with Moscow. Laipson also noted the possibility of Trump reaching an understanding with Russia that would see US support for the Syrian opposition downgraded.

Petraeus added that it was vital, however, to maintain support for opposition forces fight-

Dr Ashton Carter, Secretary of Defense, US

ing Islamic State. Yet while his fellow panellists seemed resigned to the possibility of Western ments by Gulf states and businesses to the large

Dr Ellen Laipson, President Emeritus of

states prioritising the fight against Islamic State

number of Gulf students choosing British univer-

the Stimson Center, predicted Trump would

over the ouster of Syria’s president, Prince Turki

sities. He also highlighted the UK’s own sales to

maintain greater continuity in office than his

said it was vital to defeat Bashar al-Assad as

the region, from cars to retail chains, represent-

campaign rhetoric promised. This included

well as ISIS.

ing an export market worth £20 billion per year.

adhering to the position that the root causes of

This made the region Britain’s greatest non-EU

regional militancy had to be solved internally,

First Plenary Session: US Policy and Middle

export market apart from the United States.

not by external powers. She warned, however,

East Stability

With this in mind, and following Britain’s

of a possible dramatic change in US policy

United States Secretary of Defense Ash Carter

decision to leave the European Union, Johnson

towards Iran and the international agreement

opened Saturday’s proceedings with a confi-

envisaged even stronger commercial relations

concerning its nuclear programme.

dent but sober speech. The confidence came in

with the region in the future, aided by the pos-

Embracing the theme of Iran, Prince Turki

his assertion of steady but marked progress in

sibility of entering new free-trade deals with

said the country had not established its creden-

destroying the strongholds in Iraq and Syria of

Gulf partners.

tials in the region as a peaceful nation set on

Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL. Carter

reconciliation with its neighbours. He claimed

said the seizure of Mosul and Raqqa by coalition

SkyNews Arabia Television Debate

that Iranian interference in the region was

forces of these two cities, ‘the primary objective

Before the formal opening of the 12th IISS

increasing and noted Tehran’s claims to have

of our military campaign’, would ‘put ISIL on

Manama Dialogue, delegates and selected

captured four Arab governments. Allawi stated

an irreversible path to lasting defeat’. He added

speakers took part in a live television debate.

that Iran had been exhausted by its intervention

that the progress was a result of US actions

Fadila Souissi of Sky News Arabia began by

in other Middle Eastern states and was ready to

including consolidating the Iraq and Syria war

asking the panel how Donald Trump’s elec-

negotiate, which created an opening for the new

efforts under a single, unified command, one of

tion victory would affect the region. HRH

US administration.

numerous recommendations made by Carter

Prince Turki Al Faisal, formerly a senior Saudi

Laipson urged delegates not to exaggerate

and approved by President Barack Obama.

diplomat and director-general of the king-

Iran’s capacities to threaten its neighbours, and

Carter said in the previous week the president

dom’s general intelligence directorate, noted

suggested that Arab–Iranian trust could be built

had also authorised the deployment of approxi-

the president-elect’s anti-Muslim statements

by cooperating on issues of common concern

mately 200 new US personnel to Syria. Carter

but argued the region should wait to see how

such as water management. That might in turn

said this would ‘ensure the success of isolating

he acted once in office. Retired United States

create the basis for talks on security matters, she

Raqqa, generate sufficient local forces to seize

General David Petraeus concurred, while argu-

said. Prince Turki rejected that idea, asking how

Raqqa, and deny ISIL sanctuary beyond Raqqa’.

ing that the lessons of the last 15 years pointed

he could cooperate with Iran while it facilitated

But Carter’s tone was sober in acknowledging

to the need for continued, sustained engage-

slaughter in Syria.

some tensions among anti-ISIS coalition forces.

ment. Ayad Allawi, the vice-president of Iraq,

Allawi and Petraeus agreed on the impor-

He said the US was first and foremost pursu-

expressed his hope that the next US adminis-

tance of building a representative, responsible

ing its own interests in the Middle East, which

tration would adopt a policy stance that relied

government for Nineveh Province and Mosul

were not always the same as those of individual

less on the military to beat Islamic State, also

once the battle for the city, now in the hands of

nations in the region. But he added that ‘more

known as ISIS or ISIL.

ISIS, was won. Petraeus said that in the longer

often than not, [interests] overlap or can be

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Sameh Shoukry, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Egypt

Ayad Allawi, Vice President, Iraq

Sh Khalid Bin Ahmed Al Khalifa, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Bahrain

aligned’. Carter said this was important because,

was already robust. He also argued that collec-

judiciaries and action to combat poverty. Iraq

in the campaign against Islamic State and else-

tive ballistic missile defence capabilities among

has rich natural resources but has suffered

where, lasting success would only be achieved

Gulf Cooperation Council countries would

from external interference, he said, and inter-

if local forces secured territory and local govern-

‘really make sense’. He denied the accusation

ventions from actors including Iran forced

ance took hold. Hence the US would focus on

that America was focused on tactics rather

citizens to hide within their tribes. Allawi

enabling local forces.

than strategy, but added there were limits to

also lamented what he labelled the ‘fake Arab

Carter pointed out that the US has grow-

what the US could do. Regarding the red-line

Spring’. He called for a new regional con-

ing commitments in Europe and Asia, and

crisis, he countered that ‘many moments’ had

ference aimed at reconciliation. Iran would

said there were ‘imperfections’ in the response

brought the region to its current situation.

need to be a positive player in this, and

to ISIS from some partners in the Middle East.

Donald Trump’s name went unspoken

states should plan for a true Arab Spring that

While he praised NATO countries and the Iraqi

during Carter’s speech and the subsequent

reflected popular will and ensured stability,

government, including the Kurdish Regional

question and answer session, even though the

security and sustainable development.

Government, he said some regional powers had

billionaire was set to assume the US presidency

Sameh Shoukry, Egyptian Foreign Minister,

not performed to their full potential. Alluding to

the following month. But the outgoing defence

said the Middle East was at a turbulent stage

recent tensions between the Obama administra-

secretary did appear to lay down some mark-

in its history and required clear guiding prin-

tion and Arab governments over such matters

ers on the need for American forces to counter

ciples. These should include orderly change

as the Syrian civil war and the nuclear deal with

potential ‘Russian aggression and coercion,

and addressing the rise of terrorism. He said

Iran, Carter added: ‘I would ask you to imag-

especially in Europe’. Carter also said Moscow

the Arab Spring was well intentioned but

ine what US military and defence leaders think

had neither promoted political transition in

undermined institutions of the nation-state,

when they have to listen to complaints some-

Syria nor fought ISIS, but rather ‘inflamed the

producing a vacuum that was filled by groups

times that we should do more, when it’s plain

civil war and prolonged the suffering of the

that employed terrorism. These groups should

to see that all too often, the ones complaining

Syrian people’ – a very different assessment of

have been more representative and inclusive, he

aren’t doing enough themselves.’

Russian behaviour to Trump’s. And in a mes-

argued. Shoukry said the Israel–Palestine issue

In the discussion that followed, Dr Ebtesam

sage that was probably intended for the new

remained a top priority, and that solidarity

Al Ketbi, President of the Emirates Policy

administration as well as regional partners, he

among the region’s Arab states was vital.

Center, argued that the US lacked a strategy for

insisted that the US ‘has interests here that it

the period after the defeat of ISIS. IISS Council

cannot walk away from’.

Finally Sheikh Khalid Bin Ahmed Al Khalifa, the host nation’s minister of foreign affairs, reported on the 37th Gulf Cooperation Council

Chairman François Heisbourg asked Carter to reflect on lessons from President Obama’s

Second Plenary Session: Regional Powers and

summit held in Bahrain days earlier. The event

‘redline crisis’ over Syria’s use of chemi-

Middle East Stability

set a goal of building a common market in the

cal weapons, suggesting this was the pivotal

In the second plenary session, Iraqi Vice

region within ten years. Security and defence

moment that led to a greater Russian role in

President Ayad Allawi emphasised the nexus

relationships are paramount, Sheikh Khalid

the war. Carter went on to say that Arab coun-

between stability and security, and outlined

said. Bahrain had also hosted the first ever Gulf

tries needed to invest more in ground forces,

the need for united societies, rejecting groups

Cooperation Council–United Kingdom (UK)

suggesting that investment in air capabilities

that seek division, as well as independent

summit, at which UK Prime Minister Theresa

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Dr Ursula von der Leyen, Minister of Defence, Germany

Ng Eng Hen, Minister of Defence, Singapore

Jean-Yves Le Drian, Minister of Defence, France

May expressed a commitment to the Gulf that

The nuclear accord with Iran should have been

Singapore’s Minister for Defence Dr Ng Eng

was more than transactional.

linked to security and stability in the region.

Hen also called for greater engagement with

Sheikh Khalid decried the troubles that had

He said that during the previous decade, the

countries in the Middle East, to counter the

befallen Iraq and Syria, and declared Turkey

United States had not been a proactive player

ideology and propaganda of the Islamic State,

had been held back by problems in Syria. He

in the Middle East, turning a blind eye to Iran’s

also known as ISIS or ISIL. He welcomed the

said Iran, which used to be a bastion of stabil-

activities. America should understand the need

group’s loss of territory in the region, but feared

ity, systematically sought to use every regional

to apply pressure, Allawi said.

its defeat in Iraq and Syria would heighten the

dispute to its advantage. He added that Iran’s

Sheikh Khalid agreed that it would be

threat in Southeast Asia. He explained that more

doctrine of velayat-e-faqih, under which all Shia

unwise for the US to rip up the nuclear accord,

than 1,000 Southeast Asian fighters currently in

are subject to the country’s supreme leader,

which would play into Iran’s hands and legiti-

Iraq and Syria were ‘ready to create a caliph-

must not be allowed to extend beyond its bor-

mise its misdeeds. As for Israel, it would be

ate’ in their region of origin. He proposed that

ders. He said Bahrain was seeking a security

welcome in the region after it accepted Palestine

in addition to existing regional cooperation, the

architecture for the region that included every

as an independent state.

Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) must intensify efforts to share intelligence.

country, but if Iran wanted to be part of the group it would need to abandon interference.

Third Plenary Session: Combating Extremism

France’s Minister of Defence, Jean-Yves Le

in the Middle East and Beyond

Drian, called on the international community

Egypt understood the special nature of its

In the third plenary session, three panellists

to be resolute in its response to terrorism. He

relations with Saudi Arabia, and press reports

proposed constructive steps to combat terror-

reminded the audience that terrorism’s ultimate

suggesting divergence and an Egyptian move

ism in the Middle East and around the world.

objective was to ‘destabilise the state,’ and that

toward Iran were incorrect. Egypt’s relations

Terrorism is ‘global in scope and regional

the growth of terrorist groups largely depended

with Iran remained severed. The rumour that

in character,’ German Federal Minister of

on the weakness of the state. That is why, he

Egypt re-sold its French-built Mistral helicopter

Defence Ursula von der Leyen said. She

added, combating terrorism required concerted

carriers to Russia was also false. Shoukry said

declared that the social and ideological dimen-

efforts but also adherence to international law.

the fight against terrorism in the Sinai was going

sions of terrorism must be addressed alongside

He insisted that ISIS’s religious dogmatism

well and Egyptian forces were capable of han-

the aspects that could be fought by military

must be destroyed, and that this called for spe-

dling it without outside help. Egypt’s policy on

means. Von der Leyen called on leaders of

cific responses focusing on religious education.

the Syria crisis was not to support any side, but

Islamic countries to promote the argument

He praised efforts by the United Arab Emirates

to recognise the will of the Syrian people.

that Islam stands for peace and tolerance.

in this domain, remarking on the counter nar-

Allawi said Iraq welcomed the participation

She said that since terrorists had weaponised

rative campaign led by the Sawab Center. He

of other actors, except terrorists. He saw signs of

social media, ‘we must take up the fight in

said France had a similar initiative called ‘Stop-

Iraqis rejecting sectarianism, and believed that

cyberspace’. Addressing the need to strike a

Djihadisme’, which had yielded promising

the issue was not divisions between Sunni and

balance between security and free speech, she

results on the de-radicalisation front.

Shia but disenfranchisement. Iran’s interven-

urged her audience to tell authentic local sto-

Questions from the audience enriched the

tion in other countries could not be accepted,

ries that would dismantle the extremists’ lies

discussion. Suhail Al Gosaibi of the Bahrain

but neither was it good to isolate the country.

and convince a global audience.

Foundation for Dialogue pointed to the suscep-

Responding to questions, Shoukry said

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MANAMA DIALOGUE

weapons of mass destruction and countering what General Petraeus called ‘Iran’s malign activities’, which he said were increasing.

Petraeus argued that, beyond counter-terrorism, partnering efforts should include maritime security and counter-piracy, counter-trafficking, and gradually knitting together defence and early warning capabilities. He emphasised the need for organisational, command and control, and intelligence architectures, and the need to turn strong bilateral relationships into multilateral ones. This had been happening for decades, he said, but only sporadically.

US leadership through central command was an important facilitator, he argued, and the evolving threats showed the need to knit together partnerships both within the region and beyond, while the region itself remained of critical importance to the wider world.

Kentaro Sonoura, State Minister for Foreign Affairs, Japan

General (Retd) David Petraeus, Chairman, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts and Co, US

tibility of European youth to extreme groups,

raised the risk of security threats spreading.

Petraeus was asked whether in previous remarks he had advocated an organised partition of Syria, and also what the US position on Iran would now be, while British MP Nadhim

connections

Zahawi asked how to pursue a political track

mented that extremism among young people

between the two regions relied on dependable

in the aftermath of the battle for Mosul in Iraq.

was not a result of economic hardship, but

maritime transport – more than 50% of Middle

Sir John Jenkins, the session chair and executive

caused by double standards in Western policies

East exports went to Asia, and nearly 40% of

director of IISS–Middle East, asked what the

towards the region. He pointed to the Israeli–

Middle East imports came from Asia. He said

role of China would be, given its huge economic

Palestinian conflict and the destruction of

there were common security problems, includ-

penetration in the region.

Aleppo as examples. François Heisbourg of IISS

ing nuclear proliferation. But he contrasted

In response, Sonoura re-emphasised Japan’s

said the West’s cooperation with Kurds fighting

Iran’s recent acceptance of a nuclear deal with

non-military role in capacity-building in areas

ISIS might in the future show the weakness of

North Korea’s continued defiance over the issue.

vacated by Islamic State, also known as ISIS or

the Sykes–Picot Agreement.

Sonoura said greater international pressure on

ISIL. Petraeus said it was not too late for a politi-

Von der Leyen noted that while ‘we admire

North Korea, including from beyond the region,

cal solution in Syria, but time was running out.

the courage of the Kurds’, Germany believed

was needed. By the same token, Japan would

He added that rather than pursuing objectives

that a unified Iraq was better for all its people,

continue to offer economic incentives for Iran to

that may not be achievable, the overriding goals

and Le Drian was hopeful that the dialogue

stick to its agreement. It would also encourage

should be defeating ISIS and Al-Qaeda-affiliated

between Iraq and Kurdish authorities would

Iran to play a constructive regional role.

groups, and stopping the bloodshed. On Iran, he

while Dr Ibtesam Al Ketbi from the UAE com-

Sonoura

argued

that

the

prove constructive for the future. He also agreed

The minister raised the issue of maritime

said the long-term goal was preventing Iranian

with Dr Al Ketbi that economic deprivation did

security in the South and East China Seas, and

nuclear weaponisation. He agreed the impor-

not explain terrorism, noting that French foreign

efforts to change the status quo there. He said

tance of getting the political settlement in Mosul

fighters were often educated but might have

Japan would pursue non-military efforts to

right, for the city and Iraq as a whole.

been susceptible to radicalisation. Drawing on

improve security in the Middle East through

Petraeus stressed the continued significance

Singapore’s experience in integrating people of

capacity-building and development aid in

of American leadership, and the overwhelming

different races and religions, Dr Ng said social

Yemen, Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan. But he also

capabilities of the US. But he said increasing

solutions need not always conform to the ideals

emphasised particular Japanese contributions

Chinese interest and activity should come as

of Western democracies, and that Singapore’s

to maritime security efforts, including counter-

no surprise. And after China’s special envoy

harmonious diversity was premised on a policy

piracy operations and other combined missions.

to Syria, Xie Xiaoyan, objected to the fact that

Retired General David Petraeus, formerly

Sonoura had raised the issues of the South and

the director of the CIA and head of United

East China Seas in the session, Petraeus sug-

Fourth Plenary Session: Widening Middle

States Central Command, outlined four main

gested this underscored the need for further

Eastern Security Partnerships

objectives for wider regional partnering. These

strategic dialogue.

The fourth plenary session was opened by the

included maintaining the free flow of energy

State Minister for Foreign Affairs of Japan,

from the region (still a vital US national interest

Fifth Plenary Session: Towards a New

Kentaro Sonoura. He underscored the close

despite the country’s increased energy self-

Regional Security Architecture

relationship between the Middle East and East

sufficiency) and defeating terrorism. The list

The concluding plenary session addressed the

Asia, but suggested increasing globalisation

also included preventing the proliferation of

opportunities and challenges for a new collec-

of enforcing racial and religious quotas.

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tive security system in the Middle East. The Secretary General of the League of Arab States, Ahmed Aboul Gheit, expressed his scepticism about the elaboration of a new regional system, given the unprecedented instability and division of the region.

He said the lack of regional consensus was particularly salient in light of the crises in Syria, Iraq, Yemen or Libya but also on the Iran issue. The priority, he stressed, was not to reshape a security architecture but rather to promote dialogue, discuss the principles of any future collective arrangements and to launch a Marshall Plan for the Middle East.

Aboul Gheit said the ongoing ‘unbalance of power’ was not favourable to regional stability, which was dramatically affected by tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia. He called on Iran to amend its expansionist policy and not attempt to dominate the entire Arab world. He

Dr Ahmed Aboul Gheit, Secretary General, League of Arab States

Sartaj Aziz, Adviser to the Prime Minister on Foreign Affairs, Pakistan

mine the Middle East’s Arab identity, and, more

the ongoing Israeli–Arab conflict, which was

tries enhancing trade, economic migration and

importantly, Shiites should not have the oppor-

still feeding injustice and extremism. He said

defence. He said Pakistan could play the role

tunity to ‘set up their own Arab league’.

the Israeli occupation was comparable to the

of a ‘balancer’ to enhance the Gulf’s security

Aboul Gheit identified three conditions for

Iranian occupation of the Middle East, and

framework. Located at the crossroads of the

regional stability. Firstly, the principle of state

Israeli nuclear deterrence was a sign of double

Gulf–Asia route, the country enjoyed a strategic

sovereignty should be respected. He blamed

standards in the region.

position that might be useful for the Gulf region

also said the presence of non-Arab States (such as Iran, Israel and Turkey) should not under-

Iran for relying on ‘sects’ to destabilise the

Pakistan’s adviser to the Prime Minister

in three ways. Firstly, Pakistan could share its

region. He called for a new Westphalia agree-

on foreign affairs, Sartaj Aziz, stressed that a

experience in countering violent extremism.

ment, without any external interference and

regional security architecture must be a collec-

Secondly, it could be a mediator or a facilita-

respecting the principles of democracy, good

tive design based on a comprehensive approach.

tor between Muslim countries. Thirdly, it could

governance and the protection of minorities.

He called for the containment of xenophobia

contribute to the strengthening of economic

Secondly, he warned against the death of the

and nationalism, and the adaptation of collec-

relationships between Asia and the Gulf.

Sykes–Picot agreement and the attempts to

tive security measures to meet new challenges,

Answering a question on Pakistan’s relation-

change the historical Arab nation-states’ bor-

in particular terrorism. Aziz argued that the suc-

ships with Iran and his country’s refusal to join

ders. Contesting the independence aspirations

cess of the Pakistani counter-terrorist policy was

the Saudi Arabia-led intervention in Yemen,

of some communities (including the Kurds), he

thanks to multidimensional military operations,

Aziz explained that his country ‘has excellent

mentioned decentralised systems as a possible

well-coordinated intelligence and strong sup-

relations with the Gulf, Iran is our neighbour,

solution that would protect communities while

port from political parties.

[and] a large percentage of our population is

preserving the state structure.

Thirdly, he insisted on the need to solve

Aziz praised the close relationships between Pakistan and Gulf Cooperation Council coun-

Shiites, so we are handling this relationship with Iran very delicately’.

Dr Ahmed Aboul Gheit, Secretary General, League of Arab States; Sir John Jenkins, Executive Director, IISS–Middle East; Sartaj Aziz, Adviser to the Prime Minister on Foreign Affairs, Pakistan

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Special Session 1: STABILISING AND REBUILDING YEMEN The first special session assessed a subject

Iran identified by one panel-

raised at various times over the weekend.

list as supplying weapons to

Yemen’s strategic location and the humanitar-

Houthi rebels.

ian suffering in the country currently made

One speaker praised the

its crisis important, said one speaker, while

response to Houthi military

another participant indicated that the complex-

moves against President Hadi

ity of the situation in Yemen made it harder for

in 2014 by Gulf Cooperation

policymakers to find solutions. Discussions

Council states, led by Saudi

focused on the humanitarian effects of the vio-

Arabia, as ‘an urgent and nec-

lence on Yemen’s population and the broader

essary intervention’.

impact on the country’s infrastructure, and

But regional states were

economic and political future, as well as the

also trying to put the political

measures being taken at regional and interna-

process back on track, with

tional levels to alleviate human suffering.

one panellist highlighting the

Recent Yemeni politics formed a backdrop

draft

constitution

(created

Displacement site in Khamer, Yemen (UN/OCHA/Philippe Kropf)

to the session, with speakers tracing various

in Abu Dhabi) that would

national, regional and international political

lead – one participant noted – to a federated

However, rebuilding and assistance were

initiatives designed to end the fighting and

Yemen of six regions. It was also important to

needed immediately – not at the end of the

arrive at a political solution; speakers also pos-

consider ways of rebuilding Yemen’s security

conflict. It was suggested this work could take

ited reasons for the failure of these initiatives

institutions, and to improve the transparency

place in specific areas as soon as they were free

to date. While the high level of international

and accountability of aid. Its delivery would

of violence. This would allow assistance to

support for Yemen and the government of

reduce instability, and could be achieved in

arrive quickly and also demonstrate the bene-

President Hadi was noted, the influence of cer-

a decentralised way, in coordination with the

fits of peace to the broader population; it could

tain outside actors was also highlighted, with

government and private sector.

also improve stability and security.

Special Session 2: DEFENCE COOPERATION IN THE GULF Despite recent progress, Gulf Cooperation

operation between GCC members and their

members to work better together to counter

Council

obstacles

partner nations. The Combined Maritime

and deter Iran’s substantial conventionally

addressing the region’s threats and security

Forces provides three task forces cover-

armed ballistic missile arsenal. While GCC

challenges.

ing counter-terrorism and counter-piracy

nations have invested in missile defence, their

The special session on defence cooperation

roles, and brings together the GCC states

systems are structured at a national level, even

considered the aims of the GCC’s militaries to

and a wider coalition. Some 31 nations work

though a regional sensor and missile intercep-

work more closely together, identifying areas

together under the Combined Maritime

tor architecture would be far more effective.

of success and those where greater progress

Forces banner.

(GCC)

countries

face

The issue of command and control, a core

Ballistic missile defence was suggested as

element of ballistic missile defence and any

The maritime domain was highlighted as

another area ripe for immediate cooperation.

effective military capability, was also the

providing a potential model for closer co-

The United States has long encouraged GCC

subject of discussion. While military leaders

was required.

understand that efficient command and control is critical, concerns were raised that this was not sufficiently understood in the wider political community. This could result in an inability to deliver ‘unity of purpose or effort’.

Joint training and exercises were also suggested as a means of furthering cooperative ambitions, for example by building trust across national borders.

Even in areas such as the maritime domain where closer cooperation was evident, other concerns remained. It was claimed that GCC states continued to under-invest in their mariUnited Arab Emireates Air Force F-16 Desert Falcon during an exercise in the US (USAF/Benjamin Wilson)

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time forces structure.

IISS NEWS

MANAMA DIALOGUE

Special Session 3: CONFLICT AND DIPLOMACY IN SYRIA This session assessed the state of the conflict in

Whether and how regional supporters

abounded, but Russia’s intervention made it

Syria and the prospect of a diplomatic resolu-

of the rebellion would continue their sup-

the central actor in this conflict. Differences

tion to the crisis.

port was of crucial importance. Participants

between Iran and Russia could be exploited

The military and political repercussions of

stressed the major contribution of foreign

in the future, participants thought, but their

Aleppo’s fall to government and allied forces

fighters to the Assad military effort, notably

alignment seemed strong and enduring. The

were central to the discussion. It was agreed

Iranian-backed militias from Lebanon, Iraq

regional consequences of the conflict were also

that a regime victory in Aleppo would not

and elsewhere. Speakers said that while inter-

highlighted, notably the security, political and

signal the end of the armed opposition, but the

national attention was currently focused on

financial costs shouldered by Lebanon, Jordan

opening of a new, more complex chapter in the

Jabhat al-Nusra and Islamic State, also known

and Turkey.

country’s civil war.

as ISIS or ISIL, it should also recognise the role played by the militias.

USAF F-15 over Iraq during Combined Joint Task Force Operation Inherent Resolve

It was recommended that the UN adopt a new approach to solving the conflict, with

Participants agreed on the

the organisation’s incoming secretary-general

urgent need for a ceasefire

leading the mediation himself. It was widely

and United Nations humani-

agreed that US–Russian geostrategic agree-

tarian assistance, and on the

ment was required for any real progress to

importance of isolating and

take place, but the likely substance and param-

fighting

terror-

eters of such an understanding were unclear,

ist groups. However, they

in part because of the unpredictability of the

said the need to differenti-

incoming Trump administration. A political

ate between legitimate rebel

solution remained the only viable way to end

and terrorist groups was

the conflict, although the key parties differed

paramount to any interna-

on what such a solution would contain. But

tional effort. Scepticism over

they agreed only a political deal would allow

Russia’s claims to be fight-

for the return of refugees and a programme of

ing ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra

international reconstruction assistance.

UN-listed

Special Session 4: INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION AGAINST TERRORISM The fourth special session considered the chal-

also known as ISIS or ISIL. Nevertheless, that

improving the capability of its allies and local

lenges to improving intelligence sharing and,

does not mean that the risk of international

forces, who can lead the battle against ter-

more broadly, international interstate coop-

terrorism has disappeared from Afghanistan.

rorism at local and regional levels. Indeed,

eration in the fight against terror. Participants

Participants also discussed the issue of infor-

terrorism is a regional problem and as such

agreed that a common definition of ‘terrorism’

mation sharing between government agencies:

there is only a regional solution. Regarding the

was needed in order to identify the threat and

there was no global list of individuals fighting

ideological dimension of the fight against ter-

its future. Then it would be important to focus

for ISIS in Syria.

rorism, all speakers stressed education as the

on factors explaining the emergence of the threat rather than on specific groups.

The United States position is that the

key element in responding to the brainwashing

training of counter-terrorist forces is key to

of young people by terror groups such as ISIS.

In cooperating, participants thought states should try to reduce ungoverned or poorly governed spaces in countries such as Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Libya and Afghanistan, and build a counter-narrative against the ideology used by terrorist recruiters. Terror groups’ ability to use the internet as a multifunctional tool, inspiring and directing supporters, was identified as a particular challenge.

Therefore, states would need to invest in long-term strategies taking into account the need to be consistent, patient and to provide resources. Five to six years previously the focus had been on Afghanistan, but attention had then shifted to Syria and the Islamic State,

IISS NEWS

Armed police in central Paris (Mstyslav Chernov)

WINTER 2016 | 9

SOUTH ASIA

IISS Convenes Unique Gathering of South Asian Intelligence Chiefs Intelligence chiefs and top-ranking intelligence officials from Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India and Pakistan spoke alongside one another at a recent conference organised by the IISS in Muscat, Oman. It was the first time that these officials had ever appeared together at any conference – a testament to the institute’s convening power.

The officials formed the distinguished panel in a plenary session at the tenth ‘Track 1.5’ South Asia Security Conference, held from 21–23 October in partnership with the United States National Defense University Near East and South Asia Center for Strategic Study. The officials discussed their efforts to counter Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, which is seeking greater influence in South Asia.

Intelligence chiefs and top-ranking officials from Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India and Pakistan spoke alongside one another for the first time to discuss efforts to counter ISIS

The South Asia Security Conference is one of only two meetings, both organised by the IISS, attended by Indian and Pakistani intelligence officials. Their participation as speakers at this year’s conference was all the more notable as it happened at a time of heightened India–Pakistan tensions. The event took place in arguably the most adverse regional context since the 2008 Mumbai terror attacks. That year’s Oman conference took place with one aggrieved party, India. In 2016, there were three: India, Pakistan and Afghanistan.

A deterioration in relations over Kashmir has seen India and Pakistan trade belligerent rhetoric, which has been largely matched by nationalistic media commentary. Tensions have been heightened for ten months and there is little prospect of better relations in the near future. While India and Pakistan have both stated they would like to engage in official talks, each has clear preconditions – India on terrorism and Pakistan on Kashmir.

Dr Foad Izadi, Associate Professor, Faculty of World Studies, University of Tehran; Senior Consultant on Foreign Policy to the Government of Iran; Riaz Hussain Khokhar, Former Foreign Secretary, Pakistan; Dr John Chipman, IISS Director-General and Chief Executive; Umer Daudzai, Former Minister of Interior, Afghanistan; Ambassador Manpreet Vohra, Ambassador of India to Afghanistan

relations, Arabian Gulf security, media and crisis management, and what

In October, 75 countries pledged US$15.2 billion in development aid to

the new US administration’s perspective of South Asia was likely to be. For

Afghanistan. But the reality is that the country is still in the grip of Taliban

the first time in this conference series, there was a session devoted to the

terror attacks. There have been no recent talks between the Afghan gov-

China–Pakistan Economic Corridor.

ernment and the Taliban under the Quadrilateral Coordination Group

Joining senior intelligence officials at the conference were senior Indian

umbrella. This has pushed friction between Afghanistan and Pakistan to

and Pakistani policymakers, as well as senior Afghan, United Kingdom and

an all-time high and seen levels of military cooperation hit a new low.

US officials. This year saw senior Chinese diplomats and Iranian academics

Nevertheless, efforts to promote Afghan-led and Afghan-owned rec-

taking part for the first time. A quarter of the 75 conference participants

onciliation continue. And the last year has seen an encouraging level of

were senior government officials and military officers, half were attending

coordination among major powers as they work to promote stability in

for the first time, and half were from South Asia and the neighbourhood.

South Asia. National debates about how to engage with the major global

The Muscat conference is the largest of the private ‘Track 1.5’ off-the-record

powers have spanned a broad range of opinion, from people ready to trade

meetings that the IISS convenes annually on South Asian regional security

inclusivity for greater or faster dividends and others keen to protect South

issues. It marked the 13th year of cooperation between the IISS and the

Asia’s neighbourhood civility in the longer run.

Sultanate of Oman. The IISS expresses its gratitude to His Majesty Sultan

It was against this backdrop that the conference sought to inform and

Qaboos bin Said al-Said for his continued support for this series of confer-

influence regional policy formulation. As well as the subject of the Islamic

ences. The institute expects to build on this year’s unprecedented level of

State, participants discussed India–Pakistan tensions, Pakistan–Afghanistan

official participation at next year’s conference.

Dr Li Li, China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations

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The conference took place at the Al Bustan Palace, A Ritz-Carlton Hotel, Muscat, Oman

IISS NEWS

SOUTH ASIA

Key security trends in South Asia Heightened tensions and sharper rhetoric between India and Pakistan were predicted at a discussion event on key security trends in South Asia.

Experts said increased friction, triggered by a worsening of relations over Kashmir, might be a daily reality – at least for the ensuing months.

The event at the IISS in London featured Jack Gill, Associate Professor at the NESA Center for Strategic Studies, and three IISS staff – Senior Fellow for South Asia Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, Senior Fellow for Land Warfare Ben Barry, and Research Associate for South Asia Antoine Levesques.

(l-r) IISS Senior Fellow for Land Warfare Ben Barry; Jack Gill, Associate Professor at the NESA Center for Strategic Studies; IISS Senior Fellow for South Asia Rahul RoyChaudhury; and Research Associate for South Asia Antoine Levesques

Following the attack on an Indian army camp in Uri on 18 September,

also known as ISIS or ISIL, in South Asia. Some argue that the group has

India had admitted – for the first time – to carrying out what it called ‘lim-

little opportunity in the region while others are more concerned, citing the

ited counter-terror operations’ against militant camps across the Line of

spread of ISIS propaganda and claims of involvement in recent attacks in

Control (LoC). Significantly, this had reversed a strongly held belief within

Afghanistan, Pakistan and Bangladesh.

the Indian security establishment in the sanctity of the LoC. But Pakistan

Bilateral security cooperation across the Afghanistan–Pakistan border

strongly denied such operations had taken place, suggesting an attempt to

has deteriorated, with political friction between the two countries at an

divert attention away from India’s troubles in Kashmir. The South Asian

all-time high. Consequently, substantive military cooperation between

Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) summit scheduled to be

Afghanistan and Pakistan is at a historic low. The China–Pakistan

held in Islamabad in early November had been cancelled.

Economic Corridor represents an opportunity to enhance regional con-

The event on 31 October heard that the media, especially nationalistic

nectivity in one of the least economically integrated regions in the world,

voices on electronic and social media, presented one of the biggest threats

with the United States notably lending its support. China is also playing a

to the crisis management process in India–Pakistan bilateral dynamics.

growing and more visible role in Afghanistan.

Specialists remain divided on the nature of the danger from Islamic State,

Listen to the discussion.

IISS–ASIA

26th IISS Fullerton Lecture: The Value of the Commonwealth The Commonwealth of Nations is using its unique strengths to tackle climate change and empower young people, the organisation’s SecretaryGeneral has said. The Rt Hon Patricia Scotland QC discussed the Commonwealth’s achievements and challenges as she gave the 26th IISS Fullerton Lecture in Singapore on 4 November.

Sec-Gen Scotland said the strength of the Commonwealth was reflected

Commonwealth Finance Ministers Meeting (Commonwealth)

in the depth and nature of its composition. She described it as a network of networks, bringing together a range of organisations, civil-society

to open up more opportunities and freedom for all. She argued that the

movements, professional groups and individuals, all working towards a

Commonwealth was well placed to achieve these goals through its shared

common goal of peace and stability. She said this spirit could be seen in the

pathways, common institutions and culture. She gave the example of bilat-

organisation’s theme for 2016 – an inclusive Commonwealth.

eral trade between Commonwealth member states. This costed, on average,

Sec-Gen Scotland highlighted the promotion of sustainable devel-

19% less than similar trade activities between other country pairings.

opment as a policy priority. She reflected that the Commonwealth had

An audience of 160 diplomats, officials, scholars and businessmen

extended its influence beyond its member states, with steps to tackle cli-

heard that the common language, law and institutional frameworks of

mate change one recent success. The consensus agreed by member states in

member states could be further leveraged to develop shared approaches

the Commonwealth’s statement on climate action was eventually adopted

and grasp opportunities. Sec-Gen Scotland said the Commonwealth was

at the Paris Climate Conference. The Commonwealth was using a collec-

developing practical solutions to handle corruption, and ensuring equal

tive partnership model and innovative thinking to explore new ways of

rights for women were embedded in legal frameworks and at every politi-

reversing climate change, particularly through the use of technology.

cal and economic level. She concluded by saying the Commonwealth had

The Commonwealth was also promoting the economic empowerment and engagement of young people, Sec-Gen Scotland said, with member states strengthening democratic and socio-economic institutions

IISS NEWS

shown it could make a significant contribution to sustainable development around the world.

Watch the lecture.

WINTER 2016 | 11

SECURITY AND DEVELOPMENT

The Strategic Logic of Organised Crime Past collaboration between the Italian mafia and United States government was explored at an event on the impact of organised crime. Dr James Cockayne, Head of the UN University Office at the UN Headquarters in New York, presented his research into the power struggle between states and criminal entities. Dr Cockayne emphasised criminals’ efforts to influence domestic and international political outcomes. He was

Drugs seizures in Mexico

accompanied by Bianca Jinga, Governance Advisor at the United Kingdom Department for International Development (DFID), who

middle-income nations too, making it difficult to prioritise responses to

highlighted the developmental challenges caused by criminal infiltration.

the problem. The event at the IISS in London on 14 October was hosted by

She stressed that it was not only the poorest or most fragile countries at risk

Virginia Comolli, IISS Senior Fellow for Security and Development.

– organised crime seemed to be a constant presence in stable but stagnant

Watch the discussion.

Jihadism Transformed: Al-Qaeda and Islamic State’s Global Battle of Ideas Global jihadist narratives have evolved dramatically in recent years, changes which were explored in a panel discussion on 17 November. The event featured United Kingdom Government expert Dr Simon Staffell, who had recently examined the extent to which the rise of Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, had taken control of the jihadist narrative from al-Qaeda. Martha Turnbull, Head of the National Security Research Group at the United Kingdom Foreign and Commonwealth Office, discussed the case study of Afghanistan – while IISS Senior Fellow for Security and Development Virginia Comolli examined lessons from the Lake Chad Basin region. The meeting at the IISS in London was opened by Dr Akil N. Awan, Associate Professor in Modern History, Political Violence and Terrorism at Royal Holloway, and chaired

by Professor Toby Dodge, IISS Consulting Senior Fellow for the Middle East.

Listen to the event.

Displaced families in the Lake Chad region of Nigeria (MackenzieKnowles-Coursin/ICRC)

The Dead Sea: Powerful Film Reveals Abuse of Migrants A private screening of a powerful short film The Dead Sea revealed the

IISS Senior Fellow for Security and

appalling conditions and human-rights violations faced by migrants in

Development,

Libyan detention centres. The film was introduced by writer and direc-

Konstantinos Antonopoulos, Policy

tor Stuart Gatt, who explained the motivation behind the project. A

and Advocacy Advisor at Médecins

panel discussion took place after the screening at the IISS in London

Sans Frontières, and Markus Geisser,

on 25 October. It addressed broader issues of human displacement, the

Senior

practical and legal challenges faced by people working on the frontline

Policy Advisor at the International

of the migration crisis, and governments’ often weak commitment to

Committee of the Red Cross.

and

Humanitarian

also

featured

Affairs

and

addressing the crisis. The discussion was chaired by Virginia Comolli,

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IISS NEWS

ARMED CONFLICT

African Youth: Addressing the Root Causes of Insecurity and Migration Africa’s counterterrorism and migration policies are driving young people to join radical groups or move abroad, according to post-conflict expert Marije Balt. On 3 October, Balt, director of the research consultancy SpringFactor and a former Dutch government diplomat, spoke at the IISS in London on the challenges of addressing insecurity and migration among the continent’s radicalised young people. She said extensive interviews revealed one of the main issues forcing young people to migrate or join radical groups was the denial of access to jobs, land, and social and

Interpol conduct an operation against child trafficking (Interpol)

political positions. This left them having to cope in the informal sector.

Balt discussed how migrant smuggling had overtaken all other forms

corrupt state structures. Balt argued for a locally led, politically smart

of smuggling, becoming one of the biggest sources of revenue for armed

approach working directly with young people, rather than through state

groups. In 2015, it generated an estimated revenue of US$255 million–

elites. The discussion was chaired by Anastasia Voronkova, IISS Research

US$323 million in Libya alone. She said the problems facing young

Fellow for Armed Conflict.

people would be difficult to address if work continued through weak and

Watch the full discussion.

It’s a Deal: the Business of Peacebuilding A meeting on 1 November addressed the ways politicians, armed groups, military personnel and international agencies bargain over economic and political resources during and after peace negotiations. Anastasia Voronkova, IISS Research Fellow for Armed Conflict, hosted the discussion at the IISS in London with Dr Elke Grawert, Senior Researcher at the Bonn International Center for Conversion. Dr Grawert emphasised that the ability of domestic and international elites to stay in power increasingly depended on their ability to buy the loyalty of rivals and followers. In these circumstances it was almost impossible to achieve sustainable piece, she concluded, as elite groups would strategically exploit the conflict and any peace deals to increase their share of resources and expand their network of alliances.

US Army Lt Gen. Ken Keen, Joint Task Force-Haiti, greets a UN peacekeeper in Portau-Prince, 2010 (US Navy/Spike Call)

Radicalisation in Nigeria: Former Members Shed Light on Boko Haram New analysis of al-Shabaab in Somalia and Boko Haram in Nigeria has

Mahdi Abdile, Senior Researcher at the European Institute of Peace, pre-

highlighted contrasts between the two groups. At a talk on 2 December,

sented research based on interviews with former members of both groups, as well as a survey of civil-society representatives in the two countries. Abdile underscored the differences between the profiles of group members in terms of age, education, role within the organisation and reasons for joining, including financial incentives. He stressed the much more prominent role of women in Boko Haram, and discussed avenues of recruitment. He said disillusionment with Boko Haram was very strong among its former members, who recognised the need for a military solution to the current conflict. While former members of al-Shabaab overwhelmingly saw the state as their main enemy, former Boko Haram members largely expressed trust in their president and the institutions of the state. Challenges to the reintegration of former militants were also highlighted in the talk at the IISS in London.

Nigerian soldiers prepare for the campaign against Boko Haram (VOA/Nicolas Pinault)

IISS NEWS

Listen to the discussion.

WINTER 2016 | 13

DEFENCE AND MILITARY ANALYSIS

Beyond the Iraq Inquiry: Fresh Perspectives on Britain’s Difficult War Britain’s war in Iraq remains controversial, particularly the difficult postconflict stabilisation of Basra and southern Iraq. In 2010 the British Army produced its own internal analysis of these operations and their lessons.

The document was the result of a year’s unconstrained investigation, and its findings included some challenging and uncomfortable assessments.

The report was not made publicly available at the time. However, after the release of Sir John Chilcot’s independent Iraq inquiry in July, the army report was declassified. At the IISS in London on 10 October, its author Ben Barry – IISS Senior Fellow for Land Warfare – explained how the analysis was conducted and outlined the report’s main conclusions. He identified the extent to which the hard lessons of Basra were applied by British forces in Afghanistan, and their influence on the subsequent evolution of the British Army. From this perspective he critically analysed the Chilcot inquiry findings and outlined the implications of both reports for UK defence.

Listen to a recording of the event

A UK RAF helicopter delivers supplies to a patrol in Maysan Province, Iraq in 2007 (Crown Copyright/Ian Forsyth)

Military Innovation and Adaptation: Keeping the Cutting Edge Sharp Armed forces cannot succeed on operations without innovating in peace-

The strategy also calls on US forces to aggressively invest in high-end

time and adapting in wartime. On 23 November, Ben Barry, IISS Senior

innovative technologies, in pursuit of enhanced asymmetric and hybrid

Fellow for Land Warfare, shared the early findings of his work analysing

capabilities. The United Kingdom’s defence innovation initiative seeks to

the linked challenges of military innovation and adaptation, and identified

achieve similar effects.

pointers to success. He also assessed key implications for defence minis-

Barry said the efforts of the US and UK had encountered as much fail-

tries, armed forces and defence industries, as well as wider implications

ure as success – innovation and adaptation had often been very difficult.

for the public and private sectors, during the event at the IISS in London.

During recent wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, US-led forces struggled to

Military innovation has recently become a topic of considerable inter-

adapt to operations against irregular opponents in complex and dynamic

est, partly as a result of the United States’ third offset strategy. This

environments, as well as the unforeseen character of post-conflict stabilisa-

strategy has seen US forces pursue innovative practices and organisational

tion. Adaptations were made, but at a heavy cost in time, money, avoidable

structures to meet their needs faster, more efficiently and more effectively.

casualties, and political and military credibility.

FUTURE CONFLICT AND CYBER SECURITY

The New Jihadists Support from foreign fighters for jihadist groups like al-Qaeda and Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, leaves the West increasingly vulnerable to terrorism, security expert Professor Peter Neumann told an audience on 17 October. Neumann, Professor of Security Studies at King’s College London and Director of the International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation, spoke at the IISS in London about what he called the new jihadists, and the threat they pose to the West. He said the high number of foreign fighters joining the conflict in Syria and the rise of

A memorial to Bataclan attacks in Paris (Flickr/Takver)

‘stay home supporters’ were two key trends unique to the context. The presence of these groups ensured Islamic State would leave a legacy of

conflict suggested Western governments should expect to deal with the

radicalised people posing a danger to the West, long after the organisa-

threat posed by these new jihadists for at least the following decade.

tion itself was no longer a threat. Trends observed after the Afghanistan

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Listen to the event.

IISS NEWS

NON-PROLIFERATION AND NUCLEAR POLICY

Lively discussion at largest-ever EU Non-Proliferation conference The fifth EU Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Conference took place in Brussels on 3–4 November 2016. More than 285 specialists from 61 countries and seven international organisations took part in this year’s event, making it the largest iteration to date. Lively discussion and debate filled the two days, both in Brussels and on social media; the hashtag #EUNonProlif trended on Twitter in Belgium and during the conference the IISS Twitter account was seen or interacted with 126,000 times.

After positive developments in 2015, notably the nuclear accord with Iran, 2016 saw a number of non-proliferation setbacks. These included chemical attacks in Syria, nuclear tests in North Korea and a move away from nuclear disarmament towards more overt deterrence. Opening the conference, High

Lassina Zerbo, Executive Secretary, CTBTO and Sanam Shantyaei, International Affairs Editor, France 24

Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Federica Mogherini said these developments highlighted the importance of the non-

The second keynote speech featured a predictably engaging presenta-

proliferation and disarmament community in finding new solutions, new

tion from Lassina Zerbo, Executive Secretary of the Comprehensive Test

initiatives, and new pathways towards a more peaceful global order.

Ban Treaty Organisation (CTBTO), who emphasised the importance of

This message was echoed in a keynote address from Kim Won-soo, UN

the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty as a central pillar for all disarmament,

Under Secretary-General and High Representative for Disarmament Affairs,

non-proliferation and arms-control efforts. His remarks drew connections

who urged attendees to channel their cumulative experience in building

with additional plenary sessions entitled ‘Disarmament and Deterrence –

bridges between disparate communities, in order to combat a tapestry of

Bridging the Divide’ and ‘The Iran Accord One Year On’.

entrenched and emerging threats. The new vulnerabilities of our increas-

A dozen special sessions addressed numerous other issues including

ingly networked world were discussed at length in a plenary session titled

conventional arms control, space security, sanctions policy, missile defence,

‘The Impact of Technological Change on Security and Non-Proliferation’.

biological and chemical disarmament, and regional security concerns.

OBITUARY

DESMOND BALL – IN MEMORIAM With the death of Des Ball, the global community of security specialists has

issues were hotly dis-

lost a leading thinker, one who made a major contribution to the work and

puted inside and outside

reputation of the IISS. His outstanding doctoral thesis was the basis for his

of government.

acclaimed 1980 book, Politics and Force Levels: the Strategic Missile Program

Des was a first rate indi-

of the Kennedy Administration. The book made Des’s name internationally,

vidual scholar, but also a

and from then on he was regarded as one of the major contributors to the

great team player. He was

international debate on nuclear weapons policy.

a man of the left but also a

In 1974, I recruited Des to a research fellowship in the Strategic and

Des Ball

realist regarding the role of

Defence Studies Centre at the Australian National University. There he

force in international affairs. He felt a duty to bring forth into public debate

worked on titles including The Defence of Australia: Fundamental New Aspects

key facts and opinions on which the security of millions of people might

and The Future of Tactical Airpower in the Defence of Australia.

depend. Doing so was risky work that required careful judgement and a

In 1979–80, Christoph Bertram invited Des to come to the IISS as a

remarkable capacity to impress and engage with highly placed individuals.

Research Associate. Des’s notable Adelphi paper, Can Nuclear War Be

Des took on the headship of the Australian National University’s

Controlled?, was published in 1981. The author’s answer to the question

Strategy and Defence Studies Centre from 1984 to 1991, and served on the

posed in his title was clear, unequivocal and convincing: nuclear war was

IISS Council for six years in the 1980s.

not likely to prove controllable, despite all the technology available to the United States and Soviet Union.

He continued to work as a member of the centre after 1991, contributing powerfully, despite a long illness, until his death on 12 October 2016.

Des’s argument torpedoed some important hopes in the US and else-

He led a wonderfully fruitful life, and achieved international fame and

where, and fuelled dissent on nuclear-weapons policy within NATO

influence. Yet he never lost his gentle, considerate and tolerant nature. He

discussion circles. He followed his first Adelphi with another in 1983,

will be sadly missed by all who worked with him across the world.

Targeting for Strategic Deterrence, which moved the debate on counter-

By Professor Robert O’Neill, IISS Director, 1982–87.

force and counter-value targeting policies forward at a time when these

Read the full obituary.

IISS NEWS

WINTER 2016 | 15

IISS–AMERICAS

The Islamic State: Between Aspirations and Reality An IISS–Americas event examined the global prospects of Islamic State, also

gains and successive losses, Dr Lahoud discussed the impact of intra-jihadi

known as ISIS or ISIL, as its current state-building project fails. Dr Nelly

conflict, namely the conflict between al-Qaeda and ISIS, as well as how

Lahoud, IISS Senior Fellow for Political Islamism, analysed how the same

the organisation’s official publications define the role of women in its

ideological tools that once propelled the momentum of the start-up state are

militant worldview. The event on 17 November, chaired by IISS–Americas

now generating ideological uncertainties among the group’s followers.

Executive Director Mark Fitzpatrick, was the first instalment of the IISS

As well as examining the factors that contributed to the group’s quick

Manama Dialogue Discourse Series.

PUBLICATIONS

IISS Strategic Survey 2016: US Launch Chairing the Untied States launch of the 50th IISS Strategic Survey, editor

that in light of the complex and uncertain stra-

Dr Nicholas Redman explained the book’s argument that the geopolitical

tegic realities in the region, any US pullback

and security infrastructure built after the Second World War had not kept

from the Middle East would be constrained.

pace with changes in the balance of power, prompting rising powers to

Virginia Comolli, IISS Senior Fellow

explore alternative avenues to satisfy their desire for greater international

for Security and Development, presented

status. In tandem, the norms and rules of international behaviour had

a counter-narrative to the idea of a rising

been challenged.

Africa. She said new studies pointed to highly

During the discussion on 20 October at IISS–Americas in Washington

centralised

middle

classes,

considerably

DC, panellist Adam Ward, IISS Director of Studies, argued the outgoing US

smaller than previous analysis suggested.

administration had pursued a grand strategy of discrimination, acting as a

Falling commodity prices and China’s economic slowdown had forced

‘selective superpower’ to secure the country’s status, preserving resources

major African economies to cut budgets and limit spending, Comolli said.

and avoiding imperial overstretch. This policy created strategic space for

She also highlighted a trend of increasing democratic illegitimacy. Finally,

other actors, most notably for Russia to act in Syria. Ward argued the next

Comolli pointed out that Africa was undergoing a militarisation of sorts,

president would need resolve to confront the current strategic situation in

by countries looking to set up bases on the continent.

Europe and prevent it from worsening, while also confronting an increasingly assertive and decisive China.

Mark Fitzpatrick, Executive Director IISS–Americas, addressed the pronounced drift away from nuclear disarmament. He listed three of President

Samuel Charap, IISS Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia, looked at

Barack Obama’s achievements in the field: concluding the New START

the situation in Russia and Eurasia, pointing to three drivers of strategic

Treaty, curtailing Iran’s nuclear weapons options for a decade or more,

change: Moscow’s Syria intervention, the conflict in Ukraine, and the new

and strengthening the security of civilian nuclear materials. However,

Cold War-like atmosphere in Russia–West relations. IISS Senior Fellow for

Fitzpatrick said, there had been many disappointments, including Russia’s

US Defence Jonathan Stevenson discussed US foreign policy in the Middle

boycott of the 2016 Nuclear Security Summit and the absence of further

East, noting rising tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran. He concluded

US–Russia arms control talks.

New Adelphi Book

of Western and Russian policies in

Forthcoming January 2017

providing a balanced assessment of

Adelphi 460

both Russia and the West’s actions

Everyone Loses: The Ukraine Crisis and the Ruinous Contest for Post-Soviet Eurasia

post-2014. They argue that all gov-

By Samuel Charap and Timothy J. Colton

ernments involved must recognise

Disorder erupted in Ukraine in 2014, involving the overthrow of a sitting

the failure of current policies and

government, the Russian annexation of the Crimean peninsula, and a

commit to finding mutually accept-

violent insurrection, supported by Moscow, in the east of the country. This

able alternatives. With talk in world

crisis has yielded a ruinous outcome, in which all the parties are worse off

capitals of a new cold war, Everyone

and international security has deteriorated. The upshot has been systematic

Loses provides a timely and read-

losses for Russia, the West and the countries caught in between.

able analysis of how we arrived at

In this new Adelphi book, Samuel Charap and Timothy J. Colton examine the roots of the Ukraine crisis, offering a coherent narrative

16

|

WINTER 2016

post-Soviet Eurasia since 1991, and

this dangerous juncture and how we might get out of it.

IISS NEWS

PUBLICATIONS

Survival: Global Politics and Strategy: December 2016–January 2017 In the December 2016–January 2017 issue of Survival,

airpower in modern war; Emile Hokayem and David

Gordon Barrass revisits the story of Able Archer 83; Ash

Roberts analyse the war in Yemen; Matthew Harries dis-

Carter explains the United States’ developing policy towards

cusses Britain’s post-referendum politics; Massimo Franco

Russia; Jennifer Harris urges a geopolitical approach to

outlines the Vatican’s relationship to the US presidential

TTIP; Hal Brands and Peter Feaver question the current

candidates; Mark Gilbert and Shashank Joshi contribute

assumptions governing US grand strategy; Lora Saalman

review essays; Jeffrey Mazo, David Unger, Hanns Maull

identifies the lessons China has drawn from the Ukraine

and Jonathan Stevenson review new books; and Dana

crisis; Richard Hooker explores the role of American

Allin confronts the prospect of a Trump presidency.

Strategic Dossier: Missile-Defence Cooperation in the Gulf

in Manama, London and Washington DC. Other contributors included Douglas Barrie, Senior Fellow for Military Aerospace, and Andrew Kelly, Research Analyst for the Middle East.

IISS–Middle East hosted around 50 diplomats, military personnel,

This quarter saw the release of Missile-Defence Cooperation in the Gulf, the

government officials and media representatives on 25 October for the

latest IISS Strategic Dossier, which analyses the optimal political and tech-

initial Manama launch of Missile-Defence Cooperation in the Gulf. Dodge

nical approach for all six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states to counter

and Elleman presented their findings and took questions while Sir John

Iran’s growing stockpile of ballistic missiles. It fuses IISS technical knowl-

Jenkins, Executive Director of IISS–Middle East, chaired the discussion.

edge with regional security expertise to

The Dossier was also the subject of a well-attended Special Event at the

explore a central question: why, given

IISS Manama Dialogue, on 10 December, and was endorsed by General

the definite conventional threat posed

(Retd) David Petraeus, who described it as a ‘superb’ and ‘timely’ study.

by Iranian missiles, haven’t GCC states

The Washington DC launch took place on 22 November, and was

taken bigger steps to cooperate to defend

chaired by IISS–Americas Executive Director Mark Fitzpatrick. Dodge

themselves?

and Elleman fielded diverse questions on topics such as the impact of the

The Dossier was launched by two of its contributing editors – Professor Toby

Military Balance 2017

conflict in Yemen on their research, the political position of Oman and the danger posed by a potential failing of the Iran nuclear deal.

Dodge, Consulting Senior Fellow on

On 1 December, Elleman and Dodge presented Missile-Defence Cooperation

the Middle East, and Michael Elleman,

in the Gulf at Arundel House in London. After the experts’ summaries there

Consulting Senior Fellow on Missile

was a lively Q&A session that focused on the technical side of the Dossier,

Defence – at the IISS regional offices

featuring discussion of different missile-defence systems.

New ‘Military Balance+’ database coming soon The IISS is pleased to announce the launch in February 2017 of Military Balance+, a new online database that will allow users to customise, view, compare and download IISS data instantly. Continually monitored and updated by our team of defence and military analysts, our data will enable users across government, the armed forces, the private sector, as well academia and the media, to make faster and betterinformed decisions.

This innovative new platform was previewed for the first time at the IISS Manama Dialogue, held in Bahrain on 9–11 December, where Joseph Dempsey, Research

The forthcoming Military

Associate, Military Balance Online, was on hand to give

Balance 2017 will be launched

delegates demonstrations.

on 14 February 2017.

IISS NEWS

Watch the Military Balance + animation to find out more.

How to contact the IISS >

WINTER 2016 | 17