IISS Newsletter April 2015

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IISS Cartagena Dialogue . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 IISS Fullerton Forum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 The Military Balance 2015 Launch . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Defence and Military Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Climate Change and Security . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15 Geo-economics and Strategy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Non-Proliferation and Disarmament . . . . . . . . . 16 South Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

April 2015

Security and Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Membership . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Russia–Eurasia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Publications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20, 23 IISS–US . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Appointments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 Obituary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24

The IISS Cartagena Dialogue 2015

Juan Manuel Santos, President of Colombia

Juan Carlos Varela Rodríguez, President of Panama

President Juan Manuel Santos opened the

social and economic progress. It held out the

supported by integration with the global economy:

Cartagena Dialogue: The Trans-Pacific Summit on

promise of ending the oldest conflict in the west-

Colombia now has preferential access to 1.5 billion

6 March 2015 with a keynote address. He described

ern hemisphere, which had run for 50 years. He

consumers in the Americas, Europe and soon the

the integration of Colombia with the Asia-Pacific as

spoke candidly about the difficulties of striking a

Asia-Pacific. The Pacific Alliance, he said, is such

‘a dream, almost an obsession’ during the past two

balance between peace and justice for victims in

a promising trade initiative because it seeks ‘deep

decades. The Dialogue – which brought together

the talks with FARC being held in Havana, Cuba.

integration’ between the four current member

the four Pacific Alliance states of Colombia, Chile,

Colombia’s goal, he said, is to achieve a level of jus-

countries. The Alliance, he added, is the most

Mexico and Peru, plus observer states from Latin

tice that allows peace. On a positive note, he shared

dynamic platform for economy and trade in Latin

America and Asia – represented a further step

with the audience the experience of victims of the

America, pursuing the free circulation of goods,

in Colombia’s trans-Pacific relationships, Santos

conflict who journeyed to Havana and returned

services, capital and people.

said. The country’s GDP growth has averaged 5%

home more willing to forgive than before.

The president highlighted the deepening inte-

annually in recent years, surpassing neighbouring

Colombia entered the talks from a position of

gration of the Pacific Alliance countries into Asian

countries. It attracts today more foreign investment

strength and increased security that was a result

political and economic fora such as ASEAN and

than ever, thanks to the control of inflation and the

of the strengthening of the armed forces and the

APEC. One of the challenges for Colombia is to

reduction of poverty. Approximately two million

police, President Santos said. The security forces

diversify the range of its exports to Asia-Pacific

people have been lifted out of poverty in the past

were able to achieve significant victories that

countries. Santos said Colombia will exploit its

four years, the president said, adding that the goal

debilitated FARC during the years prior to the

agricultural potential to sell more food prod-

is to eradicate poverty entirely within a decade.

Havana talks. Improved security has also been one

ucts to Asian countries, where populations and

President Santos told delegates that the peace

of the pillars of Colombia’s economic and social

incomes are rising, stoking increased demand for

process with the FARC paved the way for more

progress, he added. These advances have been

food products. The IISS Cartagena Dialogue, the

CARTAGENA DIALOGUE

ASIA-PACIFIC

PACIFIC ALLIANCE

COLOMBIA

Juan Manuel Santos, President of Colombia

Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS

president concluded, reaffirms Colombia’s role

but that the Pacific Alliance nevertheless con-

education, he said, but also help Asia handle

as a point of contact between Asia and Latin

stituted a market of comparable size to Brazil

the transitions associated with urbanisation

America.

or India, and thus was an attractive partner for

– a process that Latin America has largely com-

Shortly before President Santos gave the

Asia. Dr Chung Min Lee, Korea’s Ambassador

pleted. Dr Min Zhu, deputy director general of

keynote address, Caracol Television organised

for National Security Affairs, agreed with that

the IMF, also noted the rapid increase in trade

a debate involving delegates and speakers at

assessment, predicting that the Pacific Alliance

flows and said that Latin America was already

the Dialogue, chaired by News Director Juan

would become a growth driver and core region

integrated in some Asian vertically integrated

Roberto Vargas and broadcast to 27 Latin

within the Americas.

supply chains. The closeness of the economies

Luis Alberto Moreno Mejia, president of

was apparent in the high degree of correlation

He began by asking panellists to assess the

the Inter-American Development Bank, noted

between Asian and Latin American stockmar-

importance of the relationship between Latin

the increased trade flows: Asia’s share in Latin

kets, he added.

America and Asia. Juan Carlos Pinzon Bueno,

American trade rose from 8% in 2000 to almost

Senator Gabriela Cuevas Barron, chair of

Minister of National Defence of Colombia,

25% in 2014, although the distribution varied

the Mexican Senate’s foreign affairs committee,

described Asia as a benchmark for the world

widely with Mexico and Brazil dominating. A

noted that the lack of pan-Pacific institutions to

economy and a centre of technological develop-

south–south dialogue could help Latin America

stimulate contacts between Latin America and

ment; he noted that Latin America was smaller

close the gap with Asia on technology and

Asia, aside from the Trans-Pacific Partnership

American countries.

Juan Carlos Pinzon Bueno, Minister of National Defence, Colombia; Dr Chung Min Lee, Korea’s Ambassador for National Security Affairs; Luis Alberto Moreno Mejia, President, Inter-American Development Bank; Dr Min Zhu, Deputy Managing Director, IMF; Senator Gabriela Cuevas Barron, Chair of the Mexican Senate’s Foreign Affairs Committee

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APRIL 2015

IISS NEWS

GEO-ECONOMICS

María Ángela Holguín Cuéllar, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Colombia

Jose Antonio Meade Kuribrena, Secretary of Foreign Affairs, Mexico

LATIN AMERICA & THE CARIBBEAN

Claudio de la Puente Ribeyro, Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs, Peru

CARTAGENA DIALOGUE

Edgardo Riveros, Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs, Chile

(TPP) trade initiative. The Pacific Alliance, she

opment and integration in Asia. Colombia’s

Secretary Meade said that the next step is

added, has great potential as a market and an

partners share our vision, she said, but they

to promote the Pacific Alliance countries in the

exporter of some important commodities such

have already built links to Asia through trade

Pacific region and to create opportunities for

as silver and copper.

agreements and we have benefited from their

business-to-business contacts. To that end, they

Mr Vargas then turned attention to the

experience and the ability to share diplomatic

hope to hold an APEC-Pacific Alliance meeting

question of insecurity and how that affected

missions. The Pacific Alliance is focused on Asia

on the margins of the Latin American Economic

business decisions. Senator Cuevas observed

because it believes the region is the lynchpin of

Forum in April.

that, according to the UN, seven of the world’s

the global economy in the 21st century, the min-

ten most dangerous countries are located in

ister remarked.

The theme of the Pacific Alliance being a response to previous failed integration efforts

Latin America; and yet this had not proven to

Within Latin America, the agenda for coop-

was taken up by Claudio de la Puente Ribeyro,

be a barrier to investment. Insecurity, even in

eration within the alliance includes migration,

Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs, Peru. Broader

the worst-afflicted states, was not uniform, she

easing travel between the regions. Already

integration projects have been stymied by ideo-

noted. Chung Min Lee suggested that percep-

these nations are reaping the benefits of easier

logical and developmental differences among

tions of Asian investors sometimes failed to

freedom of movement, the minister remarked,

states, he said, prompting Peru’s then-president

keep pace with improving realities in Colombia

and are continuing to work together despite

Alen Garcia to establish a vanguard for integra-

and Mexico, while also noting that Asia suf-

changes of government in member-countries.

tion based on a core group of solid democracies

fered from inter-state tensions that were largely

In Asia, the Pacific Alliance has started a rela-

with similar outlooks on economic and trade

absent in Latin America.

tionship with ASEAN – a grouping that, like the

policy. The Pacific Alliance is the first integra-

alliance, is a good example of open regionalism

tion venture based on common interests rather

and ensuring stability and prosperity.

than geographical proximity, the vice minister

Minister Pinzon added that it was important to boost security in order for investors to feel comfortable – noting that economic develop-

Jose Antonio Meade Kuribrena, Secretary

said. It is open to other states in the region, so

ment was vital to underpin the security gains

of Foreign Affairs, Mexico, reflected on the

long as they share the alliance’s values and stan-

made in Colombia in recent years. Touching

failure of Latin America until recently to make

dards.

on Chung Min Lee’s comparison of security in

a success of regional integration, despite com-

Looking to Asia, the vice minister vowed

Asia and Latin America, he said that the latter

monalities of language, culture, values, history

to help and support Colombia’s desire to join

enjoyed considerable security at the inter-state

and aspirations. The Pacific Alliance, he sug-

APEC. There is considerable Asian interest in

level but low levels of security at the personal

gested, marks a change for the better. It has been

the Pacific Alliance, he added, noting that there

level.

assisted by having two main objectives: to build

are 32 observer states, half of which are Asian.

a single, deeply integrated economic space;

Speaking of Peru’s own ties to Asia, he recalled

Plenary 1: the Pacific Alliance Countries and

and to create a platform to promote the coun-

that diplomatic relations with China and Japan

Asia

tries in the wider world and especially in Asia.

were established in the 1870s and that today

Opening the first plenary session, María Ángela

A great deal of progress has been made on the

the country is home to the largest Chinese com-

Holguín Cuéllar, Minister of Foreign Affairs,

first objective over the last three years, not only

munity in Latin America and the second-largest

Colombia, outlined the importance of the

regarding trade but also visa and stockmarket

Japanese community. Today China is Peru’s

Pacific Alliance in supporting Colombia’s devel-

integration, he said.

leading trade partner and a major investor too.

IISS NEWS

APRIL 2015 | 3

CARTAGENA DIALOGUE

Min Zhu, Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund

FOREIGN POLICY

Cho Taeyul, Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Korea

Cesar Purisima, Secretary of Finance of the Philippines

Toshiro Suzuki, Ambassador at Large for International Economic Issues, Japan

Addressing another aspect of the Pacific

ministers were emphatic in their response.

ised by greater levels of technology transfer and

Alliance, Edgardo Riveros, Vice Minister of

Secretary Meade said the Pacific Alliance’s

increased investment in infrastructure and edu-

Foreign Affairs, Chile, observed that the world

limited bureaucracy and institutionalism has

cation, which would bring substantial benefits

is now comprised of trade groupings, making

been hugely advantageous. Minister Holguín

including reductions in income inequality.

integration a necessity in order to create effi-

warned that the creation of a bureaucracy could

Cho Taeyul, Vice Minister of Foreign

cient development and foreign-trade policies.

deprive the alliance of dynamism and creativ-

Affairs, Republic of Korea, emphasised the

The individual states of the Pacific Alliance have

ity. It is essential to not create a bureaucratic

importance for South Korea of the Pacific

forged many bilateral Free-Trade Agreements

machine, she added.

Alliance. Already Seoul is negotiating bilateral Free-Trade Agreements (FTAs) with the four

(FTAs), he said, but acting individually is no longer sufficient. The Pacific Alliance stands

Plenary 2: Asian Perspectives on the Pacific

Alliance states. Although Korea has a long-

out because of its desire to become a genuine

Alliance

standing relationship of trust with Colombia,

regional platform. He affirmed Chile’s commit-

Dr Min Zhu, Deputy Managing Director of

dating back to the Korean War, Seoul feels

ment to far-reaching trade liberalisation and

the International Monetary Fund, observed

a sense of camaraderie with all four Pacific

opening the trade in services and government

that Latin America’s exports to Asia had risen

Alliance states based on a shared outlook. Latin

procurement within the Alliance.

substantially. Moreover, China and Japan

America has been a laboratory for competing

The Pacific Alliance’s Asian focus can help

were providing significant capital flows to

theories of economic development, he said, but

with important domestic objectives, in particu-

Latin America and equity markets had become

it now appears that the open, free-trade model

lar the cause of reducing inequality within Latin

closely aligned. Asian economies were now

espoused by the Pacific Alliance is carrying the

America, the vice minister said. Asian exper-

moving from export-led policies towards the

day. Latin America as a whole faces a shortfall

tise and experience in science, technology and

development of domestic economies, the expan-

in infrastructure: the cost of remedying it is

innovation can help to narrow disparities of

sion of the middle class and a strong financial

expected to rise to US$120 billion by 2020, the

income and opportunity within the Pacific

sector. China’s current spending on invest-

vice minister stated. South Korean companies

Alliance states.

ment, at 44% of GDP, is unsustainable: a cut

are well placed to work in this sphere, creating

The debate that followed the speeches

to 34% of GDP over several years would have

high-quality jobs and added value.

touched on the question of whether the Pacific

significant adverse impacts on Latin American

Cesar Purisima, Secretary of Finance, the

Alliance’s Asian focus represented an effort to

commodity markets. The challenge is to estab-

Philippines, observed that the trans-Pacific alli-

reduce economic reliance on China, and also

lish a ‘new normal’ in relations between Asia

ance was not a new idea. Some 450 years ago

on the difficulty of balancing close security ties

and Latin America, moving beyond the com-

there had been a galleon trade between Acapulco

with the US and growing trade ties with China

modity cycle towards a more broad-based

and Manila involving bullion on one side and

– a dilemma that is common to some Asian

relationship involving increased consumerism,

Chinese manufactured goods on the other.

and Latin American states. Dr Felipe Larraín

services and agriculture. This should involve

At that time, and for most of recorded history,

Bascuñán, Chile’s former Minister of Finance,

not just the major corporations but also small

China had been the world’s largest economy and

raised the question of the Alliance widening

and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Such

it was now resuming that status. Asia as a whole

or deepening, and whether that necessitated

an evolution would have profound social and

would soon account for two-thirds of the world’s

institutional development. The two foreign

cultural implications. It would be character-

middle class, he stated. Re-establishing the gal-

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APRIL 2015

IISS NEWS

GLOBALISATION

Yorihiko Kojima, Chairman of the Board, Mitsubishi Corporation

Omar Lodhi, Partner and Regional Head of East Asia, The Abraaj Group

Katia Bouazza, Head, Latin America and Capital Financing, HSBC Bank USA

CARTAGENA DIALOGUE

David Bojanini García, Chief Executive Officer, Suramericana Investment Group

speakers

economic integration through Global Value

Pacific Alliance, for instance, should be clear

included an emphasis on the need for the Pacific

Chains (GVC); the expectations of Japanese

about its role within Latin America. If it is to

Alliance project to move from a negotiated elite

business from the Pacific Alliance countries

be a hub for inter-American trade, it requires

project to one that was more organic and com-

and the relations between Japan and the Pacific

increased connectivity and the negotiation of

manded broad popular support. It should move

Alliance countries. He viewed the Trans Pacific

gold-standard FTAs ideally involving the abo-

beyond a focus on FTAs and address security

Partnership (TPP) trade initiative as an attempt

lition of tariffs, since the transportation costs

and climate change. Greater engagement with

to address the needs of multinational companies

of trans-Pacific trade already constitute a sig-

SMEs in the Pacific Alliance was also needed,

with trans-border investments through GVCs.

nificant tariff. Secretary Purisima added that

as currently they view greater engagement with

With an aggregate income of US$2 trillion the

the Pacific Alliance should serve as a channel

Asia as a source of unwelcome competition

Pacific Alliance economies were together as big

for information, to overcome the cultural and

rather than an opportunity. There was also dis-

as Italy’s and, therefore, offered an attractive

linguistic barriers hampering trans-Pacific trade.

cussion of the political implications of greater

market opportunity for Japanese companies.

Ambassador Toshiro Suzuki of Japan said

trans-Pacific trade including the need for states

However, Mr Kojima felt, for trans-Pacific trade

that his country would shortly have FTAs with

to maintain a balance in their relations with the

to flourish it is necessary that there is political

all Pacific Alliance nations once its negotiations

USA and with China.

stability and security in the Asia-Pacific region.

leon trade will require clarity of vision. The

Questions

and

comments

to

Japan seeks a stable, secure and peaceful Pacific

with Colombia were concluded. The keidanren has set up a Pacific Alliance task force, and in

Plenary 3: The Trans-Pacific Opportunity:

region. Mr Kojima commended the Japan-

2014 Prime Minister Shinzo Abe brought 250

Perspectives from the Business Community

Colombia Economic Partnership Agreement

Japanese businessmen on his visits to Colombia,

This session was chaired by Bill Emmott, former

(EPA) and viewed it as a good framework for

Mexico and Chile. To fulfil its potential, he said,

editor, The Economist and an IISS Trustee. In his

increasing trade and investment flows. He

the Pacific Alliance has to overcome several

opening remarks Emmott emphasised the sig-

believed this would encourage Japanese firms

challenges including diversifying its production

nificance of the IISS inviting business leaders to

to invest in the region and also set up joint

base and increasing its manufacturing capacity.

speak at the Cartagena Dialogue. Relationships

ventures with Latin American firms in third

Japan is investing heavily in Latin America and

between nations are mediated not just by gov-

markets, especially Southeast Asia.

its involvement in Mexico’s automotive indus-

ernments but also through people-to-people

The second speaker, Omar Lodhi, Partner

try included the local sourcing of parts. The

and business-to-business interactions, he said.

and Regional Head of East Asia, The Abraaj

Pacific Alliance should also integrate its value

Business plays an important role in the interac-

Group, drew attention to the growing signifi-

chain into the global supply chain, improve

tion between the Pacific Alliance countries and

cance of south-south trade and capital flows

infrastructure and logistics, harmonise regula-

the countries of the Asia-Pacific, with growing

and viewed the Pacific Alliance as an initiative

tions and provide greater support for its SMEs.

trade and investment relations.

that would strengthen such flows. He identified

Finally, the Alliance should raise productivity

Speaking first, Yorihiko Kojima, Chairman

three ‘drivers of change’ in Asia-Latin America

through investments in education, training and

of the Board, Mitsubishi Corporation, focused

relations: demographic change in both regions;

technology. Japan was ready to play a greater

on three issues, namely, the importance of free

urbanisation; and the rise of a new middle class.

role in assisting in all these areas, the ambassa-

trade to economic development in the Asia-

While Asian investment in the Latin American

dor concluded.

Pacific region, in the context of the growing

region was still very low, he saw this rising,

IISS NEWS

APRIL 2015 | 5

CARTAGENA DIALOGUE

Dr Dino Patti Djalal, former vice minister for Foreign Affairs, Indonesia

CONFLICT RESOLUTION

INSURGENCY

Senen Bacani, Member, Government of Philippines Peace Negotiating Panel

Dr Gino Costa, former minister of the Interior, Peru

Gen (Retd) Oscar Adolfo Naranjo Trujillo, Counsel Minister for Post-Conflict Human Rights and Security, Colombia

especially with the new regulatory convergence

sion funds and outlined the potential benefits.

agreement at the peace talks in Havana on con-

in the region owing to regional blocs such as the

Policymakers should promote the benefits of

flict de-escalation measures that will allow for

Pacific Alliance. In fact the Pacific Alliance had

regional integration within the Pacific Alliance

demining work immediately. The Havana talks,

progressed further than ASEAN as far as finan-

to businesses, he insisted, as many business

he said, are not the result of a military stale-

cial integration and regulatory convergence was

leaders were unaware of the opportunities

mate; rather, they are the result of 15 years of

concerned.

offered by Pacific Alliance economic integration.

strengthening the military, police and justice

The third speaker, Katia Bouazza, Head,

He saw the assertion of the rule of law and the

system. The decision to negotiate rather than

Latin America and Capital Financing, HSBC

freedom of markets and democratic governance

seek outright military victory was ethical, the

Bank USA, emphasised the relevance of the

as important attributes of the Pacific Alliance

general said. It is important to show that politics

globalisation and integration of financial mar-

that would reassure investors. He believed

can work for all Colombians, so there is no need

kets for policy makers, especially in emerging

events like the Cartagena Dialogue would play

to take up arms.

markets, in dealing with the challenges posed

an important role in increasing local and global

by cross border flows of capital. She said global

awareness regarding the Pacific Alliance.

Gen Naranjo recalled that the authorities studied 37 negotiation models before embark-

banks like HSBC have opened up investment

In the discussion that followed participants

ing on its peace initiative, to avoid repeating

opportunities in Latin America to international

underscored the fact that the economic integra-

past failures. Planning for the post-conflict

investors and have also been active in taking

tion of the region had been made possible by

phase is already underway, he said, because

Latin American investors to attractive invest-

each of the governments pursuing sensible eco-

this is vital to securing peace. In Havana, funda-

ment destinations. Any investor seeks four

nomic policies. However, they emphasised the

mental agreements have been reached on rural

pre-conditions for taking a cross-border invest-

need for greater regulatory convergence. In his

and agricultural issues. Progress has been made

ment decision. Firstly, trade liberalisation and

intervention, Felippe Larrain Bascunan, former

on political participation and the controversial

the free flow of goods and services. Secondly,

finance minister of Chile, underscored the

topic of narcotics. The government insists that

transparent dispute settlement mechanisms.

importance of economic growth, policy trans-

FARC acknowledges its reliance on the drug

Thirdly, an initial level of protection to facilitate

parency and stability and democracy and the

trade and explicitly renounce it, otherwise nar-

growth of business. Fourthly, policy transpar-

rule of law to the success of the Pacific Alliance

cotics could become a threat to post-conflict

ency and stability. ‘No one likes uncertainty’,

economies.

stabilisation.

Plenary 4: Conflict Resolution and Rebuilding

for Foreign Affairs, Indonesia, recounted the

Chief Executive Officer, Grupo SURA, listed

Societies

steps that ended the three-decade long con-

the strengths of the Pacific Alliance economies

The session dwelt on the respective experi-

flict in Aceh that resulted in tens of thousands

and emphasised the relevance of financial ser-

ences of Asia and Latin America in ending

of deaths. GAM and the Free Aceh Movement

vices integration within the region for domestic

long-running internal conflicts and then under-

were a formidable military force but the 2004

and overseas investors. While the integration

pinning post-conflict stability. Gen (Retd)

tsunami changed the conflict dynamic entirely,

of regional stock markets was an important

Oscar Adolfo Naranjo Trujillo, Counsel

he said, killing 200,000 people and causing so

step forward in this regard, he sought further

Minister for Post-Conflict Human Rights and

much devastation that GAM was prompted

liberalisation of policy with regard to pen-

Security, Colombia, began by announcing an

to negotiate. Peace talks were completed in

Dr Dino Patti Djalal, former vice minister

she emphasised.

The last speaker, David Bojanini GarcĂ­a,

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APRIL 2015

IISS NEWS

GOVERNANCE

CIVIL CONFLICT

CARTAGENA DIALOGUE

six months. The key to this success lay in five attributes: leadership, pragmatism, a forwardlooking mindset, reconciliation and patience.

President Yudhoyono’s leadership and his insistence that a military solution would not provide a sustainable end to the conflict was vital; he changed society’s perception of what constituted victory. Once negotiations began, pragmatism and flexibility were essential to making progress. Thus the Indonesian government agreed to demilitarisation of territory and the deployment of international observers.

Equally important was the agreement of both sides to face the future rather than dwelling on past violations of human rights. All these steps enabled reconciliation, by which enemies became political partners, he concluded.

In contrast with the rapid resolution in Aceh, the conflict involving the Moro Islamic

Juan Carlos Pinzón Bueno, Defence Minister, Colombia

Liberation Front in the Philippines took 17 years of protracted negotiations. Senen Bacani,

text of El Salvador’s troubles, Dr Costa said.

security forces are now skilled in planning and

Member, Government of Philippines Peace

However he cautioned that the drug trade made

coordinating joint operations involving mul-

Negotiating Panel, spoke about a process that is

the FARC conflict more difficult to solve while

tiple agencies.

still potentially vulnerable. A confidence-build-

the Statute of Rome and the existence of the

Building a long-term sense of security,

ing programme has been put into effect and in

International Criminal Court made a political

Pinzón added, will take several years. The

2014 the government and MILF launched the

pact less easy to construct.

signing of a peace treaty would be just the first

Bangsamoro Development Plan to help sustain-

The following debate touched on demobilisa-

step toward peace and the public forces will be

able peace and development. Decomissioning is

tion questions, societal attitudes and the tension

charged with maintaining the security environ-

vital, Mr Bacani said. He identified four essen-

between populism and statecraft when address-

ment in order to achieve social and economic

tial elements for success in resolving conflicts:

ing conflict resolution. Lieutenant General

prosperity. He also highlighted the armed

leadership, trust, historical justice and support-

(Retd) Syed Ata Hasnain, Senior Fellow, Delhi

forces’ involvement in the technical talks with

ive consensus. Whereas the points regarding

Policy Group praised the prudence of the

FARC to pave the way for the end of the conflict,

leadership and trust were largely in line with

Indonesian government in redefining its con-

despite their 50-year-long struggle against the

those offered earlier by Mr Djalal, Mr Bacani

cept of victory. Too often national ego gets in

guerrilla group.

argued that a commitment to look honestly at

the way of peace, he said.

Minister Pinzón expounded on the concept of ‘comprehensive security’ (seguridad

past crimes, to right wrongs and make recompense, was vital for peace. It was also vital, he

Gala Dinner and Special Address: Reflections

integral) – the combination of law enforcement

insisted, to have a national consensus in support

on the Trans-Pacific Challenge

and military tools with other state institutions

of conflict resolution.

Speaking at the Gala Dinner, Colombian

and services. He argued that the armed forces

Defense Minister Juan Carlos Pinzón Bueno

are tasked with providing the basic security

Gino Costa, former minister of the Interior,

highlighted

counter-insurgency

guarantees for the state, but these need to be

Peru, argued that El Salvador’s experience of

success during the past 15 years. The country

followed by strong institutions alongside edu-

ending an internal conflict was more relevant

was able to strengthen the public security forces

cation, health and job opportunities.

for Colombia than Peru’s. In El Salvador there

thanks to a special tax aimed at expanding its

This comprehensive approach is needed, he

was no ready military solution to the conflict,

capabilities and to Plan Colombia, the aid pack-

said, to tackle the shifting security dynamics in

he said. The negotiation centred on how the

age promoted by the US. Thanks to these efforts,

Colombia. Hybrid threats operating through

guerrillas could be brought into the political

he said, approximately 90% of municipalities

diffuse networks will continue to pose chal-

mainstream and what price the state would

are now free of conflict.

lenges and require the attention of the armed

Returning to the Latin American context, Dr

Colombia’s

pay to achieve their demobilisation. Politics

The security forces in Colombia have devel-

forces. Hybrid groups, the minister added, are

has triumphed: two of the six presidents since

oped capacities for complex operations and

driven both by political and economic aims and

the peace was made have been from the ranks

were able to go from defensive to offensive

benefit from technological innovations, global

of former guerrillas. However, the post-conflict

operations that pushed the guerrillas to remote

capital flows and migration. He highlighted ter-

period has been very violent, with high levels of

regions of the country. Minister Pinzón added

rorism, cyber attacks and transnational criminal

crime, perhaps due to the failure to secure eco-

that security strategies such as Sword of Honour

groups linked to natural-resources exploitation,

nomic development.

and Green Heart were built on the capacity of

such as illegal mining and illegal fishing, as

Colombia’s explicit focus on planning for

the forces to adapt according to the shifting

key security challenges ahead. These complex

post-conflict stabilisation was wise in the con-

dynamics of the armed groups. The country’s

threats underscore the important role that the

IISS NEWS

APRIL 2015 | 7

CARTAGENA DIALOGUE

Dr Marty Natalegawa, former minister of Foreign Affairs, Indonesia

FOREIGN POLICY

GEOPOLITICS

Lee Ark Boon, Singapore’s Deputy Secretary (Trade), Ministry of Trade and Industry

Celso Amorim, Brazil’s former minister of Foreign Affairs

Mauricio Cárdenas Santamaría, Minister of Finance and Public Credit, Colombia

armed forces have to play in the future, as guar-

integration for Colombia. The country’s peace

zone of peace and cooperation. Central to this

antors of peace, development and prosperity.

process will enable the state to establish its pres-

success, he said, was the effort to separate the

The Colombian armed forces and police

ence in territory where currently it is weak, he

South Atlantic from the broader ocean in a

have adapted to these transnational and diffuse

said. That in turn will open rich territories for

political sense. The former minister reminded

networks of armed groups through a process

agricultural production, and Asia will be the

delegates that Mercosur was larger than the

of modernisation, said Pinzón. Its public forces

principal market for this output, creating pros-

Pacific Alliance and currently enjoyed higher

are now in a position to share their experiences

perity that will sustain peace.

levels of intra-bloc trade; that organisation Dr

and UNASUR, moreover, are overtly political

of the military or police agencies from 70 coun-

Marty Natalegawa, former minister of Foreign

projects designed to establish a zone of peace

tries have undertaken training with Colombian

Affairs, Indonesia,

noted the expansion of

in which war is inconceivable. By contrast, he

security practitioners. This experience and the

ASEAN’s initiatives to build the security archi-

noted, the Pacific Alliance has no defence aspi-

growing links with the Asia–Pacific, he said,

tecture in the western Pacific in recent years, as

ration. Mr Amorim said Brazil is trying to create

reinforce the role of Colombia as a key regional

well as multilateral initiatives such as the East

a Defence Council of South America that would

and global actor.

Asia Summit and ASEAN Regional Forum. He

stimulate high-technology industry across the

also touched upon APEC, TPP and the Forum

continent and ensure that more of the military

Plenary 5: An Agenda for Trans-Pacific

for East Asia-Latin America Cooperation

equipment procured in Latin America would be

Cooperation

(FEALAC) as institutions that serve as a bridg-

produced there.

Opening the session, Mauricio Cárdenas

ing function to Latin America.

with other countries. A total of 24,000 members

Surveying

trans-Pacific

exchanges,

Returning to the theme of trans-Pacific cooperation,

Lee Ark

Boon,

Singapore’s

Santamaría, Minister of Finance and Public

Dr Natalegawa offered a a two-point agenda

Credit, Colombia, noted that his country’s

for cooperation, focused firstly on physical,

Deputy Secretary (Trade), Ministry of Trade

strong economic performance of recent years

institutional and people-to-people connectivity,

and Industry spoke about the importance of

was based on the achievement of a level of trust

and secondly on promoting a peaceful Pacific

boosting connectivity between governments,

among consumers, business and foreign inves-

Ocean. It is important to not let sensitivities get

business and people. He argued for a strong

tors. The minister noted that the Pacific Alliance

in the way of addressing this important subject

regulatory infrastructure that went beyond

was conceived at a time of high commodity

and confronting reality, he said. In building

FTAs, also embracing investment protection

prices, but now that the supercycle has passed

a new security architecture for the new cen-

and double-taxation agreements.

the true value of alliance has become apparent,

tury, he pointed to three objectives: improving

as it offers increased markets for the non-com-

strategic trust, managing territorial disputes

because of the internal dynamics in the par-

modity sectors.

peacefully and accommodating the rise of new

ticipant states, he said, but insisted that it was

powers.

beneficial to tackle trade and investment barri-

In addition, the Pacific Alliance helps

Trade

negotiations

are

often

difficult

Colombia and its partners internationally, he

Celso Amorim, Brazil’s former minis-

ers, because the benefits are felt broadly. This

said, noting the support that Mexico and Chile

ter of Foreign Affairs and former minister of

refers in particular to SMEs, that otherwise lack

had offered his country in joining the OECD.

Defence, took up the theme of peace and secu-

the resources to do business across the Pacific

The focus on Asia also underscores the connec-

rity by suggesting that the Pacific could draw

Ocean. The deputy secretary concluded with

tions between peace, development and global

lessons from the South Atlantic by establishing a

a bold proposal: to think strategically by con-

8

|

APRIL 2015

IISS NEWS

PANAMA

Juan Carlos Varela Rodríguez, President of Panama

CARTAGENA DIALOGUE

Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS

cluding an FTA between the Pacific Alliance

at the IISS Cartagena Dialogue. His inspiring

to national and regional prosperity. Panama is

and ASEAN, rather than focusing on bilateral

speech focused on three intertwined themes:

expected to see GDP growth of 6-7% annually

FTAs. A region-to-region FTA could have huge

good governance, regional and international

from 2016, fired by government investments,

benefits under rules of origin, he said, and

cooperation, and prosperity.

and is positioning itself as a passenger and

would allow companies in ASEAN and the

The president urged fellow world lead-

cargo hub. Initiatives include the expansion of

Pacific Alliance to access global value chains. It

ers and civil servants not to look at politics

the Panama Canal, the expansion of the interna-

could also be a stepping stone towards an Asia-

as a ‘business’ but as a way of serving soci-

tional airport, and the development of the South

Pacific FTA, he added.

ety and addressing issues affecting citizens.

Caribbean cruise route.

The ensuing discussion touched on the pos-

Strengthening democracy is, he argued, as cru-

Increasingly, the president noted, Asian

sibility that the Pacific Alliance could one day

cial as dealing with the challenge of organised

countries and companies are investing and

become a body embracing all of Latin America,

crime currently affecting many countries in

operating in Panama. China, the second larg-

as the European Union – which started as the

Latin America. State resources must be used to

est user of the Panama Canal, has invested

European Coal and Steel Community in 1951

improve life, he said. Leaders ought to lead by

in construction. Singapore sponsored the

– has done in Europe. There was also discus-

example and prove that the state is capable of

building of a technical school. South Korean

sion around whether there could be functional

caring for its people and the youth in particu-

technology can be found in local hospitals

integration between the Alliance on one hand

lar. In this way, it would be possible to break the

and the country has invested in energy and

and Mercosur and other regional bodies on

foundation of criminal groups.

mining. Japan is to finance and provide tech-

the other. Minister Cardenas stressed that

These considerations should be at the core

the Pacific Alliance is open to all states who

of interactions between the region and Asian

share the alliance’s outlook and values, but

countries, the president insisted. Priority should

These forms of cooperation no doubt foster

it was essential that they adhere to the stan-

be given to human development and continued

prosperity but ought to be accompanied by

dards already agreed and implemented. Celso

efforts to eliminate inequality and unemploy-

information exchanges such as in the context

Amorim argued that Mercosur had much

ment, and to ensure universal access to basic

of migration and border control, and by joint

better prospects of becoming the EU of Latin

services and education. This will consolidate

efforts to ensue that the international financial

America than Mercosur; he also warned that

and unify society, while also bolstering peace

system is not exploited for criminal or terroris-

it was important not to avoid dividing Latin

and making the environment less attractive to

tic purposes, the president said. He concluded

America between a pro-business, free-trading

transnational criminal networks. In this context,

his address by stressing the need to build trust

Pacific and a statist South Atlantic. This would

he lauded the Colombian peace process as a

among nations to foster cooperation against

put peace in jeopardy, he warned.

model worthy of emulation.

transnational challenges such as organised

Turning to the Pacific Alliance, President

crime, natural disasters and pandemics. In this

Concluding Keynote Address: President of

Varela noted that Panama is in the process

respect, the Cartagena Dialogue was a wel-

Panama, Juan Carlos Varela Rodríguez

of accession. He promised cooperation with

come mechanism to promote the creation and

President Juan Carlos Varela Rodríguez of

other regional powers on all fronts and cited

strengthening of bilateral and international ties,

Panama delivered the closing keynote address

the many initiatives undertaken to contribute

he averred.

IISS NEWS

nical support to improvement works in the Panama City bay.

APRIL 2015 | 9

CARTAGENA DIALOGUE

DRUGS TRADE

INSURGENCY

TRADE

Simultaneous Special Session I: Insurgencies, Drugs and Insecurity The overarching theme was that both Asia

world; illegal mining and logging are also evi-

and Latin America are struggling to deal with

dent. Some armed groups in the north of the

the insurgents that rely on the drug trade and

country even operate their own drug-control

other forms of criminality, and have in some

policies. Although ethnic Chinese groups are

cases become full-time criminals. Across Latin

deeply involved in Myanmar’s drug-traffick-

America, organised crime groups are highly

ing, it would be a mistake to blame certain

adaptable and resilient. They have diversified

ethnic groups while ignoring the reality that

their business activities, which include drug

crime-enabled corruption reaches high into

production and smuggling but also extortion,

the state apparatus. Until recently, the gov-

illegal mining, contraband, counterfeiting and

ernment has focused on arresting addicts and low-level traffickers but now it is considering

human- and arms-trafficking. Cartels are now vertically integrated in all these criminal activities which, a few years ago, they controlled

Drug seizures from organised crime (Colombian National Police)

a development-led approach that will involve local communities and address the issue of land rights, which goes to the heart of discon-

only tangentially.

tent, instability and criminality.

There is a relationship between the

flict that predates the end of the Cold War but

organisational level of crime, and security.

continues today. Assuming that the peace

The fragmentation of cartels in Mexico, as a

process reaches a successful conclusion, it will

nexus between insurgency and organised

result of government policies, has produced

have regional implications. One of the nega-

crime, as well as the transnational nature of

a more disorganised criminal structure that

tive likely outcomes is that it will intensify the

the threat. The UK, for instance, is providing

is in flux and features high levels of violence.

level of criminal activity.

strategic assistance to partners to improve the

Some

European

states

recognise

the

Elsewhere, violence is increasingly used for

The slide of insurgency towards criminal-

socio-economic environment, strengthen gov-

coercive reasons and the pattern of attacks has

ity is a global phenomenon. In Myanmar, there

ernance and institutions, build criminal justice

become more selective.

is evidence of close links between insurgents

systems and disrupt crime. Yet there is also a

Colombia’s conflict with the FARC is

and organised crime. The country is believed

responsibility in Western societies to work on

unique, because it is the only ideological con-

to be the second-largest opium producer in the

demand reduction.

Special Session II: Trans-Pacific Connections: Commodities, Trade and Investment Trade has been the foundation of increased

2m tonnes per year shortfall in supply to

ity; inadequate infrastructure; and income

commercial ties between Latin America and

the global market by the end of this decade.

inequality.

Asia in recent years, but the cyclical downturn

Companies from China, Japan and Korea

With the right preconditions in place,

in commodity prices has revealed a structural

are all heavily involved. Chile, Peru and

Latin America will be able to diversify its

problem: Latin America is overdependent on

Mexico together could account for 40% of

export of goods and services to Asia, and in

commodity exports to Asia. The discussion

global copper output. In Peru and Mexico

particular to take advantage of the expected

addressed two principal themes: the impor-

there is a challenge for investors to ensure

growth in Asia’s middle class. This offers

tance of investing in mineral exploration to

that new projects are undertaken in a way

considerable opportunities for services, in

ensure sufficient capacity in the next decade;

that ensures the support of local communi-

particular tourism. For instance, the number

and the challenges of achieving diversifica-

ties. Partnership and development are key to

of Chinese tourists going abroad each year

tion, through a broader range of exports and

success.

is expected to double to 200m by 2020 and

the attraction of more foreign, especially Asian, investment.

10

Diversification of exports from Latin

their appetites will become more sophisti-

America to Asia will depend partly on how

cated. Another growth area is agriculture, as

In Mexico, the government has embarked

ready Latin American states are to receive

improving security in Latin America makes

on an ambitious reform of the oil sector with

investment; currently, not all are. There is

it possible to cultivate undeveloped land; this

the aim of attracting the resources necessary

potentially an investment bonanza at hand:

could help to feed a growing Asia while also

to increase output by 1m-2m barrels per day.

up to half of inward investment to Latin

lifting large numbers of Latin Americans out

This has involved constitutional reform and

America could be of Asian origin within the

of poverty and unemployment. The further

political controversy, in order to establish a

next five years, and some investment could

development of the Pacific Alliance econo-

new environment characterised by sectoral

flow in the other direction too. Here the Pacific

mies will not only boost trade with Asia,

liberalisation, protection for investment

Alliance states seem particularly well-placed,

but also raise trade among members. Today,

and higher levels of transparency. In Peru,

because of their commitment to free markets,

only 10% of the Pacific Alliance’s trade is

meanwhile, the authorities have cut taxes

open competition and a rules-based system.

within the bloc but the alliance’s recogni-

in response to falling copper prices and are

Investment will contribute to easing three

tion that trade is important for development

seeking to attract still-higher levels of foreign

structural impediments on Latin American

should have a positive influence across the

investment in order to address an expected

economies: informality and low productiv-

continent.

|

APRIL 2015

IISS NEWS

PACIFIC ALLIANCE

ORGANISED CRIME

CARTAGENA DIALOGUE

Special Session III: Organised Crime and the Informal Mining Sector The session examined the links between crimi-

then, approximately half of China’s coal output

successful. Some Latin American countries,

nal groups and informal miners, an issue of

was informal. The activity prospered thanks

for instance, have established official institu-

growing concern for the mineral-producing

in part to corrupt local officials, especially in

tions to help small miners to become legal and

countries of the Pacific Alliance. The boom in

regions where coal mining represented a big

increase productivity while complying with

commodity prices during the 2000s boosted

portion of the economy. Criminal gangs have

environmental regulations. The guarantee of a

formal economies but also encouraged non-

also had involvement with the activity. But

minimum price for small miners was cited as

state armed groups, both guerrillas and

thanks to new laws, regulations and a cam-

a particularly successful incentive because it

organised criminals, to deepen their operations

paign by the national government, several

protects producers from variations in interna-

in mineral-rich areas. Participants highlighted

informal mines have been closed. The govern-

tional commodity markets.

how attractive the activity has become for

ment has offered training for small farmers

As Asia-Pacific countries are significant

inhabitants of rural areas, since mining is now

and set a nation-wide inspections programme

consumers of mineral supplies, the session

usually more profitable than agriculture.

on coal safety, enforcing technical standards,

analysed the scope for greater trans-Pacific

safety measures and promoting best practices.

cooperation. It was proposed that countries

In some parts of Colombia and Peru, armed groups are now more likely to engage in infor-

Many international policies regarding

in both sides of the Pacific increase infor-

mal mining than drug trafficking, encouraged

informal mining were discussed. Efforts by

mation exchange to ensure that minerals

by state weakness. In Colombia, over 80% of

West African countries to apply common

sent to Asia are from legal producers. At the

mineral extraction is unlicensed. Illegal actors

regulations and tracking systems could serve

moment the monitoring of the supply chain

are able to conceal their involvement by tapping

as examples for the Pacific Alliance, as long as

is done occasionally by importers (mostly in

into trading companies, which then mix the ille-

these are carefully adapted to local realities.

Asia), on their own initiative. The exchange

gally-extracted minerals with the legal supplies.

On that front, speakers highlighted that there

of information between law enforcement

China is not only the main buyer of minerals

still is little exchange of ideas and best prac-

authorities and the establishment of a trans-

from the Pacific Alliance, but also has its own

tices between member countries of the alliance.

Pacific system to monitor mineral supplies

domestic problems with informality. Efforts to

Some incentives for small miners to seek

could help reduce informality and weaken

tackle the problem started in earnest in 1997. By

entry into the legal mining sector have been

organised crime.

Special Session IV: Financial Services Integration: Asian and Pacific Alliance Experiences Speakers in this session discussed financial

go a long way to provide financing to SMEs,

services integration, considering four main

having been successfully exported as a model

opportunities: the acceleration of growth in the

from Japan to Peru, Cambodia and Vietnam.

four economies of Pacific Alliance states com-

The panel made clear that creating the

pared to other South American players; the

mechanisms to inject capital is only part of the

size of the Pacific Alliance market as a major

solution. The session also addressed the impor-

incentive in attracting capital; the appetite to

tance of harmonising taxation, as well as matters

diversify investment streams; and the aim to

of currency and liquidity. The Chiang Mai Initiative was raised as a particularly successful

harmonise the taxation of capital flows and currency exchanges.

While there was agreement on matters

IX Summit of the Pacific Alliance, Mexico, 2014 (Alianza Pacifico)

model of currency reserve fund. Its success is attributable to the fact that participant countries have a high level of trust and knowledge of each

of incentivising investment by reducing tariffs and taxes on transactions, there was

of whether or not infrastructure should be a

other’s macroeconomic features. Members of

controversy about sources of investment in

large part of portfolios was heatedly debated.

the Pacific Alliance, moving towards financial

the Pacific Alliance countries. This discrepancy

In discussing diversification of income

integration, will need to consider that unlike

was based on what each speaker perceived

streams and business alliances, speakers con-

trade integration, financial integration is about

to be the immediate needs and best ways to

curred that in both regions SMEs are critical, far

sharing risks and promoting transparency in

deliver the economic and social goals of the

more than in Europe and the US. Integration

ways that enhance their relationship as well as

Pacific Alliance. Infrastructure was one topic of

there, they claimed, needs to revolve around

an understanding of the upside and downside

contention, with some in the panel maintain-

ensuring that lending mechanisms become far

of currency collaboration.

ing that it is critical to invest in infrastructure

more robust. The relative absence of suitable

The session also yielded a consensus on

to ensure that the states in the Pacific Alliance

capital markets, especially for new enterprises,

MILA (Mercado Integrado Latinoamericano),

can thrive long-term, while others referred to

and the perceived lack of support from the

namely that efforts are not as yet sufficient to

the need to balance risk in portfolios, infra-

state to small businesses, suggests that cre-

ensure financial integration, and that structural

structure being on the risky side of investment.

ative Asian models can be shared across the

issues will be best addressed in coordinated

Pension funds were brought up as a major ele-

two regions. For example, the panel discussed

micro-reforms which, in turn, will help deliver

ment in the integration agenda, so the matter

how Hometown Investment Trust Funds can

a broader Pacific Alliance framework.

IISS NEWS

APRIL 2015 | 11

IISS–ASIA

FULLERTON LECTURES

The Ukrainian Crisis: A Test for Europe and the World

A Conversation with Sihasak Phuangketkeow

Petro Poroshenko, Ukrainian President

Hours after a ceasefire declaration with rebel forces on 9 December, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko delivered an impassioned IISS Fullerton Lecture demonstrating his determination to achieve the

Sihasak Phuangketkeow, Permanent Secretary, Thai Ministry of Foreign Affairs

‘Ukrainian dream’ of becoming a democratic European state. He described the resilience of the Euromaidan protestors in November 2013, followed

On 16 December, Sihasak Phuangketkeow, Permanent Secretary of the

by what he saw as Russia’s betrayal of Ukraine through its annexation of

Thai Ministry of Foreign Affairs, participated in a conversation with Dr

Crimea.

Tim Huxley, Executive Director of IISS-Asia. The discussion focused on

Poroshenko expressed his intent to concurrently pursue both peace and

recent political developments in Thailand, and particularly on the back-

political reform through the ‘Ukraine 2020’ presidential programme, with

ground to and aftermath of the 22 May 2014 coup. The coup led to the

anti-corruption high on the agenda. He described a Europe that is out of

installation of a military junta led by army commander-in-chief General

balance and under threat, facing a choice between liberal democratic or

Prayuth Chan-ocha, who was subsequently appointed prime minister.

repressive authoritarian values. He warned that the international com-

Dr Huxley also discussed with Khun Sihasak the impact of the coup on

munity must not be deluded by the ‘comfortable lie’ that the civil war in

Thailand’s foreign relations, including the country’s links with the United

Ukraine is solely a domestic crisis, but rather acknowledge the uncomfort-

States and other Western countries. Following the conversation, Khun

able truth that Europe stands at the core of the conflict. Watch the lecture

Sihasak took questions from members of the audience. Watch the event

here.

on the IISS website.

China’s Political System and Its Evolution On 12 February, CEO of Chengwei Capital and IISS Council Member Eric Li delivered a Fullerton Lecture on what he regarded as China’s ability to surpass Western political systems. Li cited the arguments of three political scientists who point towards political decay within Western liberal democracies, and juxtaposed these against the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) ability to deliver reform. Li pointed to the reform programme launched at the November 2013 Third Plenum, as well as Xi Jinping’s re-centralisation of power and anti-corruption drive. As part of this move, he added, Xi had established the Central Reform Commission to drive economic policy and the Central National Security Commission to oversee both domestic and international security policy. Li argued that the CCP may eventually succumb to ossification, but was young and robust enough to continue reform for the next few decades. Watch the event on the IISS website.

12

|

APRIL 2015

Eric Li, CEO of Chengwei Capital and IISS Council Member

IISS NEWS

FULLERTON FORUM

Strengthening Cooperation to Enhance Regional Security in Asia

IISS–ASIA

said that when the threat of ISIS had been curtailed, other rogue groups would emerge to replace it, just as ISIS itself replaced al-Qaeda.

Another

issue

relevant

to

this

year’s

Shangri-La Dialogue concerned relations among Asia’s great powers, said Dr Ng. For example, on the sidelines of the 2014 APEC Summit the United States and China announced bilateral

During his keynote address to the third

deals, and China joined the US-organised Rim of

Fullerton Forum, Singaporean Defence Minister

the Pacific (RIMPAC) Exercise for the first time.

Dr Ng Eng Hen discussed the threat of Islamic

Other important issues challenging regional

extremism in Asia following the emergence of

security included the stability of particular

the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS). He

Asian countries such as Thailand and Myanmar,

suggested that this development should be seen

and transnational threats arising from natural

communication link between ASEAN Defence

as part of the same continuum precipitated by

disasters and cyber vulnerabilities. To manage

Ministerial Meeting (ADMM) members, and

the historic 11 September attacks on the United

these challenges, countries needed to improve

Vietnam had suggested a no first use of force

States in 2001. Speaking to 66 delegates from

multilateralism and focus on practical measures

agreement. After his address, Dr Ng responded

22 countries at this Sherpa Meeting for the next

to help tackle ‘hard security’ problems, said Dr

to questions from Fullerton Forum delegates.

Shangri-La Dialogue (29–31 May 2015), Dr Ng

Ng. Brunei, for example, had proposed a direct

Watch the address on the IISS website.

Dr Ng Eng Hen, Singaporean Defence Minister

EVENTS

EXPERTS

The Military Balance 2015 Launch

mindful of a defence spending trend that, overall, was still downward.

European defence spending was, ‘in 2014 cumulatively 8% lower, in real terms, than in 2010.’ As in previous years, there was a marked contrast with Asia where overall defence spending again increased – since 2010 by more than a quarter in nominal terms, growing to more than US$340bn in 2014. In some cases, this spending is supporting a growth in advancedcapability platform procurements and defence-related research and development. In 2014 spending increases in emerging economies more than offset Western reductions; ‘overall, real global defence expenditure in 2014 rose by 1.7% after three years of reductions.’

Following the London launch, members of the Institute’s Defence

IISS experts talk to the press following the launch

and Military Analysis Programme (DMAP) travelled to Berlin on 23–24 February for meetings hosted by the Koerber Foundation and the German

The IISS launched the 2015 edition of The Military Balance, the annual

Defence Ministry to present insights from The Military Balance 2015. Newly

assessment of global military capabilities and defence economics, before

appointed DMAP Director Dr Bastian Giegerich was accompanied by

an international press audience on 11 February.

Brigadier Ben Barry (retd), Senior Fellow for Land Warfare, and Douglas

The ‘salient strategic reality of the year’, said IISS Director-General and

Barrie, Senior Fellow for Military Aerospace. Two meetings at Koerber,

CEO Dr John Chipman, ‘was the re-emergence of conflict in Europe and

one with young leaders, the other with German government officials and

the ever complicating and widening nature of extreme Islamic terrorist

parliamentarians resulted in wide-ranging discussion of contemporary

groups’ activity in the Middle East and Africa.’

defence and security concerns. A similarly fruitful event was held with

While a revisionist Russia has challenged the European security order,

German Defence Ministry officials. The group, this time joined by James

the threat from extreme Islamic terrorists also strengthened during the

Hackett, Editor of The Military Balance, travelled to Brussels on 24–25

year, and ‘the rise of ISIS and the flow of jihadists in and out of vari-

March to engage officials from NATO and the EU as well as government

ous Middle East theatres of war has become a major pre-occupation for

representatives and academics in a discussion of the 2015 book. Hosted by

European states.’ While coalition air operations might lead to tactical

the Egmont Institute and the Belgian Royal Higher Institute for Defence,

victories against ISIS, these alone cannot strategically defeat it. Complex

the IISS team explained global strategic trends analysed in the book and

security dynamics across the Middle East and North Africa meant that

assessed defence-capability developments in Europe, Russia, and China.

regional defence spending was already high. Growing insecurity and

The Military Balance 2015 is packed with defence facts and objective

conflict have contributed to a further acceleration. ‘In 2011, average real

analysis, as well as charts, graphics and maps supporting the trends

defence spending growth in the Middle East and North Africa region was

outlined in the book. Specialist essays focus on: military space systems,

3.5%. In each year since, we estimate it has increased by an average of 10%.’

directed energy weapons, and hybrid warfare, while this year’s wall chart

Europe’s NATO members, confronted with an increasingly complex

carries analysis of Russia’s military modernisation process and selected

security environment on the continent and in their near-abroad, were

IISS NEWS

force dispositions. Watch the launch here.

APRIL 2015 | 13

EXPERTS

DEFENCE AND MILITARY ANALYSIS

Countering Ebola in Sierra Leone: The British Military Contribution

Meeting NATO’s Future Ambitions: IISS Workshop

Unloading an RAF C17 in Sierra Leone during the UK’s response to combating Ebola (MoD/Crown copyright)

Last year’s outbreak of Ebola in West Africa rapidly became a regional

Flags at half mast outside the NATO headquarters, January 2015 (NATO)

medical emergency. Part of the international response was the deployment of a British inter-agency task force to assist the government of Sierra Leone

At the September 2014 Wales Summit, NATO leaders pledged to reverse

in countering the disease, as was discussed at an IISS event on 11 March.

the downward trend in defence spending and to provide the capabilities

The deployment included volunteer medical staff from the National

that will be needed to meet future challenges. They agreed on measures

Health Service, military medical staff, logisticians, communication special-

to boost military readiness, and on new forms of cooperation such as the

ists and engineers as well as Royal Marines and naval helicopters.

Framework Nations Concept.

Command and control was provided by the headquarters of the

On 17 March, in the last of a series of events sponsored by NATO, the

British Army’s 104 Logistic Support Brigade, commanded by Brigadier

UK Ministry of Defence and the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, rep-

Steve McMahon. At Arundel House he described the establishment of

resentatives from the three sponsors, as well as diplomats, government

a Joint Inter-Agency Task Force conjoining British military personnel,

officials, military officers, academics and IISS staff gathered at Arundel

the Department for International Development and the Foreign and

House for an off-the-record seminar to consider the key factors influenc-

Commonwealth Office, with the participation of NGOs, the World Health

ing NATO’s future level of ambition. Keynote talks were given by Danish

Organization and the government and armed forces of Sierra Leone, as

General Knud Bartels, Chairman of the NATO Military Committee, and

‘opening a new chapter in cross-government integrated operations’.

Lord George Robertson, former UK defence Secretary and NATO secre-

The urgency of the situation and need for a comprehensive approach

tary general.

compelled diverse actors to achieve a ‘tactical trinity of unity of command,

Delegates discussed a wide variety of topics including whether cur-

unity of purpose and unity of effort’. Clear political directives were trans-

rent levels of ambition were appropriate to deal with modern threats and

lated into sound command-and-control arrangements at all layers, thus

the ability of governments to generate the defence policies, capabilities

effectively integrating a wide range of capabilities, from logisticians and

and budgets that will allow them to put these commitments into practice.

engineers to analysts and medical staff. The infection was successfully con-

They also considered the prospects for reversing the decades-long trend

tained by the deployment of combined teams down to village level, the

of declining defence funding and improving cooperation between NATO

construction of six UK-funded treatment units to provide isolation and

states, as well as what new themes might be contained in NATO’s next

care, and the conduct of a large influence campaign to change behaviours.

Political Guidance.

THE

MILITARY BALANCE

The annual assessment of global military capabilities and defence economics

BUY THE MILITARY BALANCE 2015 ONLINE: www.iiss.org/publications/militarybalance

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NEW FEATURES FOR 2015 New country analyses including China, Colombia, France, Israel, Japan, Kenya, Ukraine and the United Arab Emirates, as well as analysis of regional defence and security developments such as ISIS in Syria and Iraq.

New thematic analytical essays on hybrid warfare, directed energy weapons and US space systems.

A new Military Balance Wall Chart, with a focus on Russia’s armed forces.

New technical equipment-focused graphics, including on the development of Russia’s Flanker combat-aircraft variants, the US Navy’s Zumwaltclass destroyer and Israel’s Merkava IV main battle tank.

Updated graphics feature on comparative defence statistics, with a focus on defence economics, defence industry and major land, sea and air capabilities.

Updated national

capability summaries.

A new section

detailing ‘observed equipment’ for selected non-state armed groups, including the Peshmerga in northern Iraq, separatist forces in eastern Ukraine and Boko Haram in Nigeria, among others.

A table of military training exercises, arranged by region.

New maps on France’s realigned military presence in Africa, the conflict in eastern Ukraine, and AMISOM’s Operation Indian Ocean in Somalia.

IISS NEWS

CLIMATE CHANGE AND SECURITY

EXPERTS

The IISS Forum for Arctic Climate Change and Security On 18 March, the IISS Forum for Arctic Climate Change and Security held a workshop at Arundel House on the ‘Benefits and Limitations of Arctic Development: Arctic Peoples’ and Industry Views’.

Climate change, market dynamics and technological advances are currently shaping an economic agenda for the Arctic for the coming decades, which in turn will drive geopolitical and military trends in the region.

An important aspect of economic development in the Arctic that is often overlooked or under-emphasised is the position of the Arctic Peoples, who have histories, identities, lifestyles and languages that are separate from those of the Westphalian states in which they live. There is a diversity of views between and within the Arctic Peoples about development in the region, and the issues – political, social and economic – vary between dif-

The village of Siorapaluk, Greenland (US National Snow and Ice Data Center/Andy Mahoney)

ferent parts of the Arctic. The complexity of these views is not always well represented in discussions of Arctic affairs beyond the region.

industries. Workshop participants included London-based diplomats

The workshop was intended to bring a nuanced understanding of

from most of the Arctic nations, UK diplomats and MPs, several members

Arctic Peoples’ viewpoints on Arctic economic development to a wider

of the House of Lords Select Committee on the Arctic, academics, analysts

policy audience, and offer space for Arctic and industry representatives to

and industry leaders. The workshop centred around four overlapping and

engage on questions important to the socio-economic future of the region.

interconnected themes: economic growth, environmental stewardship,

Among the speakers were Athabaskans, Inuit and Sami from Alaska,

respecting the Arctic way of life and interaction and engagement between

Canada, Norway and Sweden, representing indigenous peoples’ civil-

industry and Arctic Peoples.

society, commercial and political organisations. Other speakers included senior corporate officials from the fishing, engineering and oil and gas

EXPERTS

The workshop was chaired by Dr Jeffrey Mazo, Consulting Senior Fellow for Environmental Security and Science Policy.

IISS–MIDDLE EAST

GEO-ECONOMICS AND STRATEGY

The Geo-economics and Geopolitics of Transnational Organised Crime On 1 February, a Global Perspectives Series discussion panel was organised

by IISS-Middle East following a three-day conference on organised crime.

Diplomats, subject experts and corporate members attended a ninetyminute session chaired by Sir John Jenkins, IISS-Middle East’s Executive Director. Leading on the various topics covered were IISS experts Nigel Inkster, Director of Transnational Threats and Political Risk, Ben Barry, Senior Fellow for Land Warfare, and Virginia Comolli, Research Fellow for Security and Development.

UN and National Police in Timor-Leste targeting human trafficking (UN/Martine Perret)

Discussions covered a wide range of issues concerning the movement and prosperity of transnational organised crime, the technology employed

ised crime on the MENA and the Saharan and East African regions,

in criminal activities and the movement of people and goods. Additional

including the increase in human trafficking there. Highlighted were the

topics included state-weakening factors and severe regional crises, with a

roles of failed states and civil strife in bringing criminal organisations and

focus on opportunities for crime organisations to benefit from the current

jihadist movements closer. The event concluded with a discussion of the

geopolitical status and further develop their income sources and stake-

cyber-crime challenge faced by countries and organisations, and the dif-

holder ties.

ficulties of rounding up perpetrators and legally persecuting them. Watch

The panel also gave details on the implications of transnational organ-

IISS NEWS

the event here.

APRIL 2015 | 15

NON-PROLIFERATION AND DISARMAMENT

NON-PROLIFERATION

Eliminating Chemical Weapons

SANCTIONS

EXPERTS

UN Sanctions Workshops

A chemical weapons destruction facility Ruwagha, Libya (OPCW)

The successful destruction of Syria’s chemical-weapons stockpile last year fanned hopes for universalising the Chemical Weapons Convention,

Iranian heavy-water production facility at Arak, south of Tehran (iStock/EdStock)

to which only six states are currently not party. Two of them are in the Middle East, Egypt and Israel. Both are being asked if there is a compel-

As part of ongoing collaboration with the United Nations Panel of Experts

ling strategic rationale for remaining on the outside. On 15 January the

on Iran, the IISS held a workshop in Amman, Jordan on 11–12 February to

Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Programme organised a meeting to

discuss the challenges of implementing sanctions against Iran and share

discuss this question and the status of efforts to eliminate chemical weap-

best practices for compliance. The workshop convened more than 50 gov-

ons featuring: Peter Sawczak, Head of the Government Relations and

ernment officials and industry representatives from six states in the region

Political Affairs Branch of the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical

along with experts from the UN Panel, North America and the IISS. The

Weapons (OPCW), based in The Hague; Ambassador Shimon Stein, a

meeting was mainly devoted to UN sanctions and export-control meas-

former Israeli diplomat and Senior Research Fellow at the Tel Aviv-based

ures and included sessions on conventional arms transfers and the current

Institute for National Security Studies; and Nomi Bar-Yaacov, an Associate

negotiations, accompanied by an assessment of potential future sanctions

Fellow at Chatham House and a member of the board of the ACRONYM

developments. Participants also discussed unilateral sanctions imposed by

Institute for Disarmament Diplomacy.

the EU, the US and Canada, many of which have a secondary impact.

Upholding the Nuclear NonProliferation Treaty

Kuala Lumpur Workshop

Victory Day parade, Pyongyang, North Korea 2013 (Stefan Krasowski)

On 25 February, the IISS also organised a workshop in Kuala Lumpur, IAEA inspectors making an inventory of fuel assemblies on a training exercise (IAEA)

Malaysia entitled ‘Furthering the Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Agenda: Challenges and Expectations Relating to the UN Sanctions on

On 6 March the US State Department’s Assistant Secretary for International

North Korea’. The event was the latest in a series of meetings in support of

Security and Non-proliferation, Thomas Countryman, spoke at Arundel

the UN Panel of Experts on North Korea. With the assistance of the Institute

House. His remarks provided an optimistic assessment of the state of the

of Strategic and International Studies Malaysia (ISIS Malaysia), the work-

non-proliferation regime. Yet although Countryman ranked the Nuclear

shop brought together representatives from the Panel, Cambodia, China,

Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) as the ‘most successful multilateral treaty

Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam, as

in the history of diplomacy’, he recognised that it faces numerous chal-

well as practitioners from the private sector in several of these countries. It

lenges ahead of an international Review Conference taking place in April

was designed to explain the Panel’s mandate, provide guidance on sanc-

and May. These included the lack of progress towards a WMD-free zone

tions implementation best practices and highlight North Korea’s evasion

in the Middle East and the pace of nuclear disarmament as viewed by

methods. The workshop also provided an opportunity for participants to

nuclear- and non-nuclear-weapon states. Read the transcript here.

discuss the difficulties involved in implementing sanctions.

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IISS NEWS

CHINA

EXPERTS

INDIA

PAKISTAN

SOUTH ASIA

Pakistan’s Fight Against Terrorism On 24 February, Pakistani Minister for the Interior and Narcotics Control Chaudhry Nisar Ali discussed his country’s fight against terrorists, describing them as those ‘who take up arms against the state [and] do not subscribe to any law, religion or norms of civilisation’. He noted that the ongoing Zarb-e-Azb anti-terrorist operation in the tribal areas bordering Afghanistan had been stepped up, and that a new 20-point National Action Plan against terrorism had been instituted with a full political consensus.

Moreover, the Twenty-First Amendment Act, 2015, had been passed to provide the required constitutional validity for the establishment of new

Emergency workers clear rubble following a bomb blast in Peshawar, Pakistan (iStock/EdStock)

military courts where terrorists would be tried. Nisar also explained that as the minister responsible for Pakistan’s counter-terrorism policy, he

that a change of attitude was required within the government to allow for

had been able to ensure coordination and sharing of intelligence among

‘unity of implementation’. Finally, he urged the West to stop drawing a

Pakistan’s 33 intelligence agencies. He added that madrassa reform was

conclusive connection between Islam and terrorism, but to instead partici-

also taking place. Yet the minister also emphasised that Pakistan should be

pate in a unified international anti-terrorism effort. Watch the discussion

given more time to implement its new anti-terrorism policy, and warned

here.

Resumption of India–Pakistan Talks: The Way Forward

India’s Policy Toward China: Land Border Challenges and Opportunities

Indian military trucks delivering supplies in Jammu & Kashmir (iStock/zanskar)

Ambassador Kanwal Sibal, former Foreign Secretary of India, provided a pessimistic perspective on the prospects for the renewal of official talks between India and Pakistan. Speaking at Arundel House on 25 March, he declared that India had initiated talks several times in the past, but

An Indian soldier near the border with China (Shankar S.)

that these discussions had been disrupted by Pakistani or Pakistanbased terrorists. He also suggested that Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz

On 11 December 2014, senior Indian journalist Dr Manoj Joshi spoke at

Sharif might no longer be interested in pursuing talks, given his recent,

Arundel House on the complex nature of Sino-Indian relations. Joshi, also

strongly-worded statements on the Kashmir dispute during a visit to

a Distinguished Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation (ORF) in New

the UN General Assembly. Ambassador Sibal emphasised that Indian

Delhi, discussed Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s policy objectives

Prime Minister Narendra Modi remained keen on conducting outreach to

with regard to China, identifying trade as a prominent concern. He noted

Pakistan in order to increase regional stability and thereby facilitate the

that China had similar goals, as demonstrated by its recent pledge to invest

work of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC).

US$20billion in India by 2019. He then discussed the various obstacles to

He added, however, that if and when talks were resumed their format

Sino-Indian engagement, citing a September 2014 border confrontation as

would need to change before any significant ‘breakthrough’ regarding

a key reminder of ongoing tensions between the neighbouring countries.

relations would be possible.

Watch the event here.

Pakistan’s Security Perspectives

that the Zarb-e-Azb operation against militants in Pakistan was making

In a rare event of its kind, Army Chief of Pakistan General Raheel Sharif

Displaced Persons (TDPs) from the North Waziristan Agency. General

addressed a select private gathering at Arundel House on 16 January

Sharif then referred to Pakistan’s National Action Plan (NAP), describing

during his first official visit to the UK. According to a report issued by

it as a comprehensive long-term strategy to address extremism and terror-

government news agency the Associated Press of Pakistan, the general said

ism in the country.

IISS NEWS

good progress. He also discussed cooperation with the UK on security matters, relations with Afghanistan and the resettlement of Temporarily

APRIL 2015 | 17

SECURITY AND DEVELOPMENT

The Strategic Implications of Organised Criminal Markets

EXPERTS

International Responses to Hybrid Conflict in Fragile States

Unloading seized drugs from USS Carr during counter transnational organised crime operations (US Navy/Corey Barker) Military figures without insignia seen during the conflict in Ukraine (NATO)

A joint initiative by the Security and Development and Geo-economics and Strategy programmes brought to the IISS-Middle East offices an interna-

NATO, like other national and international forces, has been adapting

tional conference aimed at strengthening understanding of transnational

to the challenges accompanying hybrid conflict – as exemplified by the

organised crime (TOC). Moreover, the event sought to explore the impli-

Ukrainian crisis and the rise of ISIS – in which non-state groups use

cations of TOC through the sharing of ideas and best practices among

a wide array of regular and irregular tactics. Dr Jamie Shea, Deputy

law-enforcement practitioners and members of the business and academic

Assistant Secretary General for Emerging Security Challenges at NATO,

communities across countries and sectors.

presented his views at an off-the-record event on 24 February.

Participants in the conference, held from 30 January to 1 February,

The event highlighted the challenges that hybrid armed groups pose

looked at TOC’s implications for the corporate sector as well as for stability,

for the international community. There are calls for international actors

good governance and economic development in emerging and developing

to build rapid-intervention capabilities and at the same time to increase

regions. Through the use of case studies and real-life experience, attendees

the resilience of state armed forces against hybrid tactics. There are also

examined concrete examples and, more importantly, engaged in a pro-

concerns about the increasing involvement of non-state armed groups

ductive discussion on counter-measures to be implemented at the local,

with criminality, since this makes negotiations for a political solution to

national and international levels. The full conference report and agenda

conflicts more difficult.

are available here.

Asian Engagement in Africa: Chinese and Japanese Experiences in South Sudan Asian engagement in the African continent over the past 15 years has increased considerably both at the geo-strategic level, in terms of large investment-driven infrastructure projects, and at lower levels through events such as the opening of supermarket chains and the development of small manufacturing.

China and Japan are playing a key role on the continent and South Sudan provides an interesting case study of Asian involvement. The newest

Japan SDF Personnel in South Sudan (Government of Japan)

country in the world is, in spite of an ongoing conflict, ‘open for business’, and while it will continue to maintain close ties with the United States it

Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), Akok Madut, PhD candi-

welcomes investors from all over the world. China and Japan, albeit by

date at SOAS and diplomat at the South Sudanese Embassy in London,

adopting different approaches, have both proved to be valuable partners.

and Jeremy Taylor, also a PhD candidate and Commonwealth Scholar at

These were the issues explored at a 16 March roundtable with Dr Mitsuaki Furukawa, Chief Representative for the South Sudan Office of the

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APRIL 2015

SOAS with extensive experience working in post-conflict African states.

Watch the event here.

IISS NEWS

SECURITY AND DEVELOPMENT

SOUTHEAST ASIA

UKRAINE

MEMBERSHIP

An Update on the Ukraine Crisis: The New Minsk Agreements and Beyond On 3 March, Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia Samuel Charap spoke at a members’ event at Arundel House. He provided an update on the 12 February ‘Minsk 2’ agreement on the conflict in eastern Ukraine and discussed its implications for Ukraine, Russia and Western policy.

Following renewed violence in early 2015, the leaders of Ukraine,

OSCE monitoring of the withdrawal of heavy weapons, Ukraine, March 2015 (OCSE)

Russia, France and Germany met for over 16 hours in Minsk to finalise a new 13-point agreement to address the conflict in eastern Ukraine. The

detailed in the plan would actually need to function. The Minsk agree-

stipulations included a ceasefire and significant political concessions from

ment transforms Ukraine into a de facto asymmetrical confederation. Not

the central government to the rebel-held areas.

only will that provide Russia a lever of instability in eastern Ukraine that

While acknowledging that this new agreement was an important

it can use to prevent Kiev’s Western integration, but this new arrangement

step forward, Charap called it ‘the end of the beginning, rather than the

will be hard to sustain within Ukraine given the disproportionate powers

beginning of the end’. The document put Ukrainian domestic political

accorded to two parts of the country.

compromise at the centre of the conflict-resolution process. It also laid out a very clear sequence for the most controversial provisions.

Moreover, Charap noted that any Ukraine-only agreement is necessarily a temporary ceasefire in the broader conflict between Russia and the

In the short and medium terms, there were serious risks to the agree-

West; conflict would break out again, in Ukraine or elsewhere, as long as

ment’s implementation, including escalation on the ground. In the long

the core dispute over the regional order in Eastern Europe and Eurasia

term, if the document is fully implemented, the political compromise

remained unresolved.

Singapore’s Strategic Outlook and Challenges On 4 March, IISS–Asia Executive Director Dr Tim Huxley addressed a members’ meeting at Arundel House regarding what he saw as some of the most important and enduring elements of Singapore’s foreign and security policies. He then assessed the potential major challenges to Singapore’s external security over the coming decade. Dr Huxley pointed in particular to the potential for more complicated relations with the citystate’s immediate neighbours, Indonesia and Malaysia. Moreover, he

Singapore Navy frigate RSS Stalwart ahead of two US vessels in the Pacific Ocean (Nicolas C. Lopez/US Navy)

discussed the ongoing need to manage relations with the United States and

for new strategic thinking that might go some way towards matching the

China with dexterity. He also outlined the threat posed by domestic politi-

strategic flair displayed by Lee Kuan Yew, S. Rajaratanam and Goh Keng

cal developments to Singapore’s capacity to manage its external security

Swee in Singapore’s early years. Their leadership, he noted, was crucial to

environment effectively. Dr Huxley concluded by highlighting the need

the country’s survival as a small state in a turbulent region.

Women in Violent Extremist Organisations

motivations and experiences of women in violent organisations such as the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS). She explained the importance of paying attention to the choices these women make and the reasons behind them, and provided insight into the roles these women can play within such organisations. Rachel Briggs OBE, a Senior Fellow at the Institute for

On 24 March, Virginia Comolli, Research Fellow for Security and

Strategic Dialogue, showed the room a video made by extremedialogue.

Development, chaired a discussion event on ‘Women in Violent Extremist

org, a Canadian activist enterprise that seeks to explore the experiences

Organisations’ at Arundel House. Two prominent women in the field

of those affected by extremist propaganda. The discussion that followed

spoke to an engaged audience and a lively Q&A followed; moreover, the

touched on a range of issues relating to the specific involvement of women

attendees had the opportunity to speak to the panel further during a drinks

in groups like ISIS, and highlighted the importance, especially in relation

reception after the event. Joana Cook, a PhD candidate at the War Studies

to counter-terrorism efforts, of listening to their stories. Watch the discus-

department at King’s College London, shared some of her research into the

sion at the IISS website.

IISS NEWS

APRIL 2015 | 19

RUSSIA–EURASIA

EXPERTS

UKRAINE

International Diplomacy and the Ukraine Crisis General for Enlargement, European Commission. They discussed ongoing efforts to address the Ukraine crisis and presented their perspectives on the prospects for a diplomatic solution.

Lukin asserted that the central reasons for shortcomings in earlier attempts were the deterioration of US–Russia relations and the perception of Russia’s subordinate status in the relationship over the past twenty years.

Burt described a diplomatic deficit between the West and Russia, which had worsened since the start of the crisis. He argued that the absence of political will, a lack of responsiveness from the Obama administration and domestic narratives of American and Russian exceptionalism hindered a diplomatic resolution to the crisis.

Leigh identified two misguided narratives of EU involvement in Nikishina, Ukraine, March 2015 (People in Need/EC Echo)

the crisis. Firstly, he explained that the EU Association Agreement with Ukraine was designed as an alternative to EU membership and that the EU

On 15 December, Dr Samuel Charap, Senior Fellow for Russia and

was not open to Ukraine’s accession to the bloc. Secondly, he argued that

Eurasia, chaired a panel at the IISS–US on international diplomatic efforts

the Association Agreement did not force Ukraine to choose between Russia

in response to the Ukraine crisis. The speakers were experienced former

and the West. Leigh emphasised that the EU’s goals were the stabilisation,

diplomats and negotiators from Russia, the US and the EU: Vladimir

democratisation and modernisation of Ukraine, not the isolation of Russia.

Lukin, former Russian Ambassador to the US and Special Envoy of the

According to the panellists, a resolution to the crisis would require the

Russian President for the February 21st Negotiations on Ukraine; Richard

full implementation of the Minsk Accords, the adoption of some form of

Burt, Managing Director, McLarty Associates, former US Ambassador to

decentralisation in Ukraine, and Russian acceptance of Ukrainian sov-

Germany and Chief US Negotiator for the START Agreement; and Michael

ereignty and territorial integrity. This event can be watched on the IISS

Leigh, Senior Advisor, German Marshall Fund (GMF) and former Director-

website here.

PUBLICATIONS

New Publication: Armed Conflict Survey 2015 The Armed Conflict Survey (ACS) is a new annual publication that provides yearly data on fatalities, refugees and internally displaced people for all major armed conflicts, alongside in-depth analysis of their political, military and humanitarian dimensions. The first edition of the book covers the key developments and context of more than 40 conflicts, including those in Afghanistan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Iraq, Myanmar, Syria and Yemen.

The ACS features essays by some of the world’s leading authorities on armed conflict, who write on subjects such as: • the development of jihadism after 9/11; • hybrid warfare; • refugees and internally displaced people; • criminality and conflict; • the evolution of peacekeeping operations

The ACS also includes maps, infographics and multi-year data, as well as the highly regarded IISS Chart of Conflict.

The book is edited by Nigel Inkster, Director of Transnational Threats and Political Risk at the IISS. The Armed Conflict Survey will be launched 20 May 2015. It is available

The authors discuss the principal thematic and crossregional trends that have emerged over the past year, complementing the granular approach to each conflict at the core of the book.

20

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APRIL 2015

for pre-order; copies will be dispatched after the launch. IISS members can claim a 25% discount on the cover price.

See the website for details.

IISS NEWS

EXPERTS

PAKISTAN

GEO-ECONOMICS

IISS–US

Power Shifts and New Blocs in the Global Trading System preferential trade agreements. This topic was further developed by Dr Krishna, who described many of the challenges in progressing beyond the current global trading system and the inherent limitations to a strict PTA approach at the expense of a truly global, WTO-focused agreement.

Dr Tellis, on the other hand, explained that trade imbalance, deficits and other ‘side effects’ of the expansion of free trade present a wide range of challenges for US foreign policy in particular, as the established power adapting to a rising China.

The speakers also discussed the future of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations and the agreement’s potential impact on the global A meeting in Berlin with Germany’s Chancellor, Angela Merkel, and the heads of the WTO, the World Bank, the IMF, the OECD and the ILO (OECD/Axel Schmidt)

political and economic landscape. A particular emphasis was placed on the role of TPP in East Asia, where the US aspires to remain engaged in the ‘vibrant economic communities’ of the region, in light of growing Chinese

On 11 March, the IISS–US hosted a launch event for the Adelphi book Power

trading ties with the same states. During the audience question and answer

Shifts and New Blocs in the Global Trading System. The event featured the vol-

session, the discussion focused on the role of emerging powers, like China

ume’s editor and Director of the Geo-Economics and Strategy Programme

and India, as well as the assessment of policy choices for the United States

at the IISS, Dr Sanjaya Baru, and two of the collection’s authors, Professor

in adjusting to the realities of the new world. The event was chaired by

of International Economics and Business at Johns Hopkins University, Dr

IISS–US Managing Director Bryce Campbell.

Pravin Krishna, and Senior Associate in the South Asia Program at the

Chaired by Dr Nicholas Redman, Director of Editorial; Editor, Adelphi

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Dr Ashley Tellis. Dr Baru

books at the IISS, this Adelphi book was also launched at Arundel House,

described the origin of the edited volume and outlined many of the key

London on 12 March. Speakers included Dr Sanjaya Baru, Director for

themes in the book, including the rise of a multipolar trading system,

Geo-Economics and Strategy, IISS and Philip Stephens, Associate Editor

and the subsequent impact on global trading patterns, including the

and chief political commentator, Financial Times. The discussion can be

specific phenomenon of an increasing number of bilateral and regional

viewed on the IISS website.

Pakistan 2015 and Beyond

both nations could create the necessary political space for restarting rela-

On 24 February, Dr Kiran Hassan discussed the state of democratisation

largely optimistic, her view of internal problems provided a stark contrast.

in Pakistan and potential implications of President Hussain’s rule for the

Well-known challenges, ranging from violent extremism to shortcomings

nation’s future. She explained that due to widespread corruption, a poor

in the country’s human-rights record clearly remain. The military leader-

human rights record and military involvement in politics, the Pakistani

ship continues its crackdowns on non-state actors in a selective manner,

population might soon ‘lose the appetite for democracy’. Unlike its neigh-

targeting only those elements that are hostile to Pakistani authorities

bour to the East, Dr Hassan argued, the Pakistani democratic process has

while turning a blind eye to more regime-friendly extremists. Moreover,

only deteriorated over the years.

minorities and women in the country continue to face oppression and dis-

On the other hand, 2015 presents Islamabad with an opportunity to

tions from ‘a clean slate’.

While Dr Hassan’s assessment of the country’s foreign policy was

crimination on social and institutional levels.

invigorate political ties with India and Afghanistan. Pakistani-Indian

Dr Hassan concluded by describing her optimism for Pakistan on

relations might improve due to mutually beneficial trade and be further

many fronts. She noted, however, that while the nation has real prospects

fuelled by India’s aspirations for a seat on the UN Security Council (which

for advancing its diplomacy in 2015, any gains would be unsustainable

requires easing tensions with its nuclear-armed neighbour). Pakistan’s

without effective counter-terrorism measures and progress on its other

rapport with Afghanistan may also improve because new leadership in

domestic challenges.

The Rise of the Islamic State, the US Military Campaign, and the Future of Iraq

rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) and the prospects for the US military campaign. Far from being an aberration, Dodge asserts that ISIS is a violent symptom of a set of systemic social and political problems and that, as such, a rote military response will not be an effective long-term solution. He discussed the structural failures of the post-2003 Iraqi state that enabled ISIS to gain power, and criticised the use of proxies like the Kurdish Peshmerga and primarily Shiite militias for worsening Sunni mar-

On 26 February, Professor Toby Dodge, Consulting Senior Fellow for the

ginalisation. The event was chaired by IISS–US Managing Director Bryce

Middle East, spoke at the IISS–US about the political climate that led to the

Campbell and can be viewed on the IISS website.

IISS NEWS

APRIL 2015 | 21

IISS–US

TERRORISM AND SECURITY

NON-PROLIFERATION

Responding to the Growing Threat of Homegrown Terrorists in Europe

EXPERTS

rorism is a transfer of conflict from the home countries to their diaspora communities in Europe, using Pakistanis in the United Kingdom and Turks in Germany as contrasting examples. He discussed the challenge of containing radicalisation in European prisons, where converts to Islam are particularly vulnerable to extremist rhetoric, and where authorities face an uphill battle in monitoring developments. Finally, Dr Rabasa identified areas of progress in European counter-radicalisation programmes, along with the challenges those programmes face going forward.

Dr Janes provided the German perspective, specifically pertaining to the sizeable Turkish community in Germany. He compared the experience of diaspora communities in the United States to those in Germany, framing the contrast as ‘immigration versus integration’, and noting that this contrast determines how diaspora communities identify themselves. He pointed out that the communities in Europe typically have stronger ties to their home countries than in the US, and that these ties create a sense of sub-nationalism in the host countries. He argued that

An armed soldier in Brussels, January 2015 (Thierry Roge/AFP/Getty)

the next chapter of Europe’s history lacks a cohesive narrative or the requisite leadership to write that narrative, and that radicalisation plays

On 27 January, IISS–US hosted Dr Angel M. Rabasa, Senior Political

into this problem. Dr Janes concluded by discussing the need for more

Scientist at the RAND Corporation and Dr Jackson Janes, President of the

role models in the Turkish community in Germany to counter radicalism

American Institute for Contemporary German Studies (AICGS) at Johns

among youth.

Hopkins SAIS to address the growing threat of home-grown terrorism in Europe.

Finally, the panellists responded to several questions from the audience, including how to properly define and identify success, how to deal

Dr Rabasa began the conversation with a high-level analysis of the

with an ideology that justifies and embraces murder, and ideas for broader

state of radicalism in Europe. He discussed the relationship between the

cooperation in combating radicalism. Bryce Campbell, IISS-US Managing

integration of Muslim communities in Europe and radicalisation, which

Director, served as the moderator for this discussion, and it can be viewed

share a weak correlation. He posited the argument that home-grown ter-

on the IISS website.

NPT Review Conference Preview In anticipation of the upcoming Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference in New York, the IISS–US held a discussion event featuring Director of the Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Programme at the IISS Mark Fitzpatrick; Professor at Georgetown University and Foreign Affairs Officer at the State Department, Dr Edward Ifft; and Managing Editor of Survival and IISS Research Fellow, Dr Matthew Harries. The meeting took place on 26 March at the IISS–US office in Washington.

Dr Ifft explained that his predictions for the conference were rather pessimistic due to the unsuccessful track record of recent NPT Review Conferences, rising political tensions worldwide and fundamental disagreements between nuclear and non-nuclear states. In particular, the refusal of nuclear powers to eradicate their missile stockpiles is increas-

2010 Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT)

ingly irksome to non-nuclear states in light of a focus on non-proliferation, rather than disarmament. In contrast, Fitzpatrick was more optimistic,

Finally, Dr Harries mentioned the difficulty in managing expectations

particularly in light of an expected deal between the P5+1 and Iran over

ahead of each subsequent Review Conference, based both on the histori-

Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. In his opinion, a nuclear deal with Iran would

cal trajectory of the events and political developments. He then outlined

possibly revamp NPT negotiations on a global scale and possibly over-

potential fissures in and amongst both the nuclear and non-nuclear states

shadow the pallor over the failure to hold a conference in Helsinki to

based on recent events, as well as responses to the Austrian Pledge ema-

promote a Middle East WMD-Free Zone.

nating from the December humanitarian campaign conference in Vienna.

Fitzpatrick also outlined a set of five meaningful objectives should the

As such, Dr Harries warned against lofty promises in an outcome docu-

conference fail to produce a substantial outcome document as a means of

ment that go unimplemented or other outcomes that could undermine the

demonstrating progress towards the ultimate aims of the NPT despite a

purpose of the review conference process and the NPT as a whole. The

lack of universal agreement on a wider platform.

panellists concluded by taking several questions from the audience.

22

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APRIL 2015

IISS NEWS

PUBLICATIONS

New Adelphi Books

Partnership (TTIP) between the US and EU, and a 16-member Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).

In this volume, leading commentators – including two former heads of

Adelphi 450 Power Shifts and New Blocs in the Global Trading System

the WTO – examine the possible consequences of this shifting trade land-

Edited by Sanjaya Baru and Suvi Dogra

scape. Is globalisation in reverse, and have countries been retreating from

As economic powers from the developing world, particularly China, have

liberalisation since the world financial crisis of 2008–09? Are the ‘mega-

emerged in the past few decades, their weight has altered the balance in the

regional’ deals an existential threat to the WTO regime, or can they be used

global trading system. This has presented challenges in the World Trade

as building blocks towards wider multilateral agreement on a broad range

Organisation (WTO), where the Doha Round of multilateral negotiations

of issues, from industrial standards to intellectual property rights? And

has dragged on for more than a dozen years. Frustrated by this stalemate,

what does it all mean for the balance of geopolitical power between the

many countries have sought alternatives. Among these are ‘mega-regional’

developed and developing world?

trade agreements such as the proposed Transatlantic Trade and Investment Adelphi 449 Spoiler Groups and UN Peacekeeping Peter Nadin, Major General (retd) Patrick Cammaert, and Professor Vesselin Popovski UN peacekeepers today do far more than patrol a ceasefire line. In most cases, there is no frontline, no truce, numerous parties and among them some armed groups seeking to undermine a settlement. In short, the UN is attempting to conduct peacekeeping in places where there is no peace to keep. Unfortunately the UN has failed to adequately develop the instruments to identify armed groups, and then deal with the challenge they pose. This book is a policy guide for UN missions. It analyses the nature of non-permissive UN mission environments and argues that the UN should think afresh about its approach to missions in these settings. By embracing and developing three concepts – robust peacekeeping, political processes, and the protection of civilians – the UN can arrive at a stabilisation doctrine.

Survival: Global Politics and Strategy

Appointments The IISS welcomes the

IISS–Middle East

In the April–May 2015

following;

Mahmood Abdulla

Sir John Jenkins

Research Assistant, Geo-

Bastian Giegerich

Executive Director,

Director of Defence and

IISS–Middle East

Military Analysis

The International Institute for

Alice Hine Assistant Editor Krupa Patel HR Administrator

Strategic

delighted the

Studies

to

appointment

of

Sir

John Jenkins as Executive

programme Imran Khan Consultant, Geo-Economics and Strategy Programme

Gilley

and

David

Kinsella explore the potential

for

states

to coerce others into action change; Freilich

on

climate

Charles

D.

explains

Israel’s inability to win conclusive military victories; David A. Shlapak

Director of the IISS–Middle East, based in Manama,

Yusuf Mubarak

calls for a more modest US military strategy;

Bahrain, as of 27 January

Arabic Editor; Media &

Steven Pifer, Egon Bahr, Götz Neuneck, Lukasz

2015. Read the Press Release.

Communications Officer, IISS–Middle East

Katadah Zaman Managing Director, IISS–Middle East

IISS NEWS

is

announce

Nancy Turner Editorial Manager

economics and Strategy

issue of Survival, Bruce

Kulesa, Mikhail Troitskiy, Matthew Kroenig, Samuel Charap, Jeremy Shapiro and Maria Rost Rublee discuss the strategic dimensions of the Ukraine crisis; and Donald Holbrook and Vicken Cheterian delve into the relationship between al-Qaeda and ISIS.

APRIL 2015 | 23

OBITUARY

Sir Robert Wade-Gery KCMG KCVO (1929–2015) It was with great sadness that the Institute learned of the death on 16 February 2015 of Sir Robert Wade-Gery, a scholar, diplomat and banker who served his country in all three roles with great distinction. As important for the IISS, however, was the vital part he played in the development of the Institute, first as a member for more than 50 years, having been introduced to it by his colleague Sir Michael Palliser when they served together in the Foreign Office’s then-nascent planning department, and later as honorary treasurer from 1991–2005. It was in this latter role that I came to know and value him as both a wise colleague and friend.

It was typical of Robert that when, as treasurer, he was required to produce his CV for the Institute’s website, he restricted it to only 14 lines, encompassing a life and career of outstanding achievement and success. This diffidence and modest brevity provided a telling illustration of the character and personality of the man who had lived that

financial stability. But his importance to the Institute

life. A congratulatory double first in Mods and Greats from

extended far beyond his role as honorary treasurer. In

Oxford was followed by a fellowship of All Souls (where,

2002 when I became chairman of the executive commit-

with a few interruptions, he was to remain a fellow for a

tee, changes in UK charity law brought about a necessary

total of 29 years) and a brilliant Foreign Office career.

re-structuring of the Institute, a complex process whose

As a diplomat he was not only a close witness to some

smooth passage owed much to his diplomatic skill. It

of the major events and personalities of the second half of

also imposed new fiduciary responsibilities on the execu-

the twentieth century, from occupied Berlin to Suez, the

tive committee (now the board of trustees.) The fact that,

Tet offensive in Vietnam, the fall of Franco and the assas-

despite these demands and responsibilities, I was able to

sination of Indira Gandhi, but also played a key role in

sleep well at night was due in no small measure to his wise

advising and shaping British policy on issues as diverse

counsel. That this counsel was always offered with charm

as Trident, the Falklands War and the birth-pangs of the

and a disarming diffidence in no way deceived us into

initial Anglo-Irish agreement, serving under eight prime

misjudging its importance.

ministers, from Churchill to Thatcher. Retiring from the

When he eventually retired – to indulge in happy schol-

Foreign Office after five years as high commissioner to

arship at All Souls, or his new passion for the art of dry

India, he then moved seamlessly into banking as vice-

stone walling and his old passion for opera – he main-

chairman of Barclays Capital.

tained his membership of an Institute whose contribution

His knowledge of the financial world (he once served

to international discourse he had held in high regard

an interesting six months in the Bank of England learning

since his days as a very young diplomat. That regard was

about the City) and his skilled diplomacy were to prove

returned with interest by everyone at the IISS privileged to

invaluable to the Institute, steering it as it grew – and out-

know and work with him.

grew its accommodation – through occasionally choppy

During the 57 years of its existence the success and

waters to the comparatively secure haven, both in its bal-

reputation of the IISS has owed a great deal to the con-

ance sheet, and in Arundel House, which it occupies today.

tribution and dedication of a few great men. Sir Robert

At a time in the late 1990s when many UK charitable

24

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Wade-Gery was one of that number.

institutions saw their endowments evaporate on a plung-

Fleur de Villiers CMG

ing stock market, Robert’s advice secured our future and

Chairman of the IISS Trustees

APRIL 2015

For details of how to contact the IISS >

IISS NEWS