IISS Newsletter May 2016

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IISS Fullerton Lectures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 IISS Fullerton Forum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 IISS–Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Security and Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Defence and Military Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 South Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Appointments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Publications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7, 17, 18

May 2016

Armed Conflict . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Economic and Energy Security . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 European Strategy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Future Conflict and Cyber Security . . . . . . . . . . 10 Russia–Eurasia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 IISS–Americas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 IISS–Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Non-Proliferation and Nuclear Policy . . . . . . . . 16

IISS Fullerton Lectures

Erna Solberg, Prime Minister of Norway

The Global Goals: A Roadmap to a Sustainable, Fair and More Peaceful Future Erna Solberg, Prime Minister of Norway, began her Fullerton Lecture on 13

society. She also spoke about the importance of cultivating synergies between

April by identifying aspects of Singapore’s development process that were

the 17 sectoral SDGs to ensure an ‘holistic, sustainable development agenda’;

relevant to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG 16) adopted by world

the need for governments to implement coherent strategies, policies and

leaders at the United Nations in September 2015. Crucially, she noted that

investments; and that the global goals will not only reinforce global norms but

Singapore – like Norway – strongly advocates a ‘predictable international

also raise expectations within countries and across borders. In addition, she

order’, governed by law rather than might. She went on to discuss how the

stressed that gender equality ‘makes strong economic sense’.

SDG 16 has at the heart of its agenda the promotion of just, peaceful and inclu-

The prime minister concluded by saying that the SDGs provide a route

sive societies, and talked about the particular challenges posed by the Syrian

to economic, social and environmental stability, emphasising that the right

refugee crisis.

choices over the next 15 years will make all the difference in achieving these

The focus of Solberg’s Fullerton Lecture, however, was on the challenges of achieving the SDGs. She emphasised the importance of partnership between governments, the private sector, UN agencies, development banks and civil

goals. The lecture was chaired by Dr Tim Huxley, Executive Director of IISS– Asia, and was held at the Fullerton Hotel in Singapore.

Watch the event.

IISS–ASIA

FULLERTON LECTURES

ASIA-PACIFIC

AUSTRALIA

Rational and Irrational Actors in a Troubled World

SHANGRI-LA DIALOGUE

EGYPT

The 4th IISS Fullerton Forum: The Shangri-La Dialogue Sherpa Meeting 2016

General (Retd) Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan, Indonesia’s Coordinating Minister for Political, Legal and Security Affairs Australia’s former prime minister Tony Abbott

The fourth Fullerton Forum, which took place in Singapore 24–26 January, brought together almost 70 delegates, mainly senior officials and mili-

Speaking at the IISS Fullerton Lecture in Singapore on 9 December 2015,

tary officers from more than 20 countries that regularly participate in the

Australia’s former prime minister Tony Abbott said that it was ‘easy to

Shangri-La Dialogue (SLD), as well as IISS research staff with expertise

be downcast about the world’s prospects’. However, he argued that

in Asian security and a small number of other non-governmental experts

the success of the Indo-Pacific region provided a ‘powerful antidote’ to

from SLD countries. The five main sessions of the Forum – which respec-

despondency. In Singapore’s case, he pointed to the synthesis of ‘Chinese

tively assessed the 2015 Shangri-La Dialogue, relations among the major

culture, Western values and British justice’ to produce effective govern-

powers in the Asia–Pacific, the security roles of medium and small powers,

ance and prosperity. Although China was ‘flexing its muscles’ and there

emerging threats, and the prospects for conflict management – were off

were ‘tremors from the Middle East’, Abbott highlighted the role of the

the record.

United States as the ‘key stabiliser’ in the region – a role which would

On 25 January, General (Retd) Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan, Indonesia’s

persist even as China became increasingly powerful. He said crippling ten-

Coordinating Minister for Political, Legal and Security Affairs, delivered

sions were unlikely ‘because even a cold war would be bad for everyone’.

the keynote speech on the record. In his address, General Luhut focused

Abbott argued that prospects for the region were good, becoming more

on the terrorist threat posed by the Islamic State in Southeast Asia. He

prosperous, freer and safer.

underlined the need for a comprehensive strategy to counter the threat,

In the Middle East, by contrast, the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or

involving a combination of ‘soft’ and ‘hard’ approaches, emphasising that

ISIL, ‘death cult’ is thriving on conflict and presents the ‘biggest threat to

a hard approach – relying on the use of force – would not be sufficient. He

the world’s peace and security’, according to Abbott. He argued strongly

also emphasised the importance in an effective counter-terrorist strategy

for ‘the right intervention’, possibly involving the commitment of Western

of using international intelligence exchanges as well as programmes for

troops, to destroy this threat.

counter-radicalisation.

Following his remarks, there was a lively question-and-answer session,

In the second part of his address, General Luhut provided an upbeat

focusing particularly on the challenge of ISIS and how it should be

account of Indonesia’s recent economic progress, highlighting that a grow-

countered. The lecture was chaired by Tim Huxley, Executive Director of

ing economy is key to fighting terrorism and maintaining political and

IISS–Asia.

economic stability.

Watch the event.

Beyond Tahrir: Egypt Five Years After Mubarak

Watch the keynote address.

our Singapore office in a roundtable seminar chaired by Dr Tim Huxley, Executive Director of IISS–Asia. Hellyer, who was in Cairo when Hosni Mubarak fell, when Muhammad Morsi became Egypt’s first democratically elected president, and when Abdel Fattah Al Sisi took office, offered

On 26 February, Dr H A Hellyer, Associate Fellow in International Security

his reflections on and analysis of Egyptian politics over the course of the

Studies at the Royal United Services Institute for Defence Studies, spoke at

last five years.

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IISS NEWS

MYANMAR

IISS–ASIA

Myanmar’s strategic relations under the NLD On 1 March, Dr Nicholas Farrelly of the Coral Bell School of Asia Pacific Affairs, Australian National University, discussed the most important factors that were likely to influence the foreign policy of Myanmar’s new National League for Democracy (NLD) government. These factors included the domestic security calculus (essentially in terms of the rebellions by

Myanmar parliament building (UN Photo/Rick Bajornas)

ethnic armed groups), and the recent history of relations with neighbouring countries such as China, India, Bangladesh and Thailand. He argued that

concluded that while Myanmar’s new foreign policy was likely to be nec-

Myanmar was on the front-line of some difficult and challenging aspects of

essarily pragmatic – for example in terms of relations with China – the

the ‘Asian century’, particularly in terms of strategic rivalry between China

intriguing prospect of Suu Kyi as foreign minister suggested that principled

and India. In opposition, Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD spoke of the need

positions on some foreign policy issues were conceivable. This meeting was

for a ‘democratic foreign policy’ and ‘a foreign policy of principles’. Farrelly

chaired by Dr Tim Huxley, Executive Director IISS–Asia.

ORGANISED CRIME

UNITED NATIONS

BRAZIL

SECURITY AND DEVELOPMENT

The Global Governance Crisis and the Role of the UN Amid widespread international turbulence and a growing and evolving array of challenges, ranging from continued conflict to large-scale human displacement (to mention but two), world governance is undergoing a profound transformation. According to Michael Møller, Director-General of the United Nations Office at Geneva, the UN is not fit to play a role in this

Displaced persons at a water tank in West Darfur (Flickr)

new arena and needs to adjust to avoid becoming irrelevant.

At this discussion meeting on 27 April, chaired by Research Fellow for Security and Development Virginia Comolli, Møller argued in favour of greater preventative work to stop crises from emerging, stronger coopera-

tion and partnerships with, for instance, regional actors, and educating the public through a more constructive approach to news reporting.

Watch the video.

The Age of the Fragile City

1st IISS–FUNAG Dialogue

With vast areas of the developing world facing unprecedented urban

On 26 February, the IISS Security and Development Programme and the

population growth, the IISS gathered a panel of international experts to

Alexandre de Gusmão Foundation (FUNAG) co-hosted a day-long dia-

discuss the emerging concept of ‘fragile cities’. The speakers were Dan

logue on ‘Strategies for International Peacebuilding and Development’ at

Lewis, Chief of the Disaster and Post-Conflict Section of UN-Habitat; Dr

the Itamaraty Palace (Ministry of External Relations) in Brasília.

Robert Muggah, Research Director at the Igarapé Institute; Dr John De

The aim of the dialogue was to encourage frank and insightful discussion

Boer, Senior Policy Advisor at United Nations University and Dr Caroline

of Brazil’s current thinking on international development and peacebuilding

Moser, Emeritus Professor at the University of Manchester. Held on 11

between the Brazilian Ministry of External Relations, other relevant Brazilian

December, the meeting was chaired by Antônio Sampaio, IISS Research

government agencies, and leading external and international experts.

Associate for Security and Development.

Additionally, it was hoped that such discussions would pave the way for

Moser explained that urban fragility was associated with the speed of

future strategies and strengthen Brazil’s voice in global security and devel-

population growth and the fragility of the overall state. Muggah added

opment issues. Specific themes discussed included: emerging powers in

that violence tended to take place in highly concentrated cities: in some

peacebuilding; building resilience and promoting stability in fragile regions;

Latin American cities most homicides took place in 1% of the streets. De

Brazil’s engagement with international security and stability; Brazil’s chang-

Boer acknowledged that the UN was not prepared to face the risks and

ing role as a development actor; managing the impact of climate change; and

opportunities presented by this urbanisation process, whereas Lewis out-

economic diplomacy and soft power in the developing world.

lined some responses the UN was devising to deal with the large migration flows reaching European cities.

IISS NEWS

The dialogue was the first iteration of what IISS and FUNAG hope will become an annual event.

MAY 2016 | 3

DEFENCE AND MILITARY ANALYSIS

DEFENCE POLICY

DEFENCE TECHNOLOGY

NATO

EXPERTS

What Next for Defence Acquisition The Future Operating Environment Reform?

2035

The British Army’s AJAX prototype armoured fighting vehicle (Andrew Linnett/ MoD/Crown copyright) Ministry of Defence main building in Whitehall, London (Crown copyright)

The Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre (DCDC) is an official ‘inhouse’ think tank within the UK Ministry of Defence. It recently released a

There are two simple principles to buying defence equipment: don’t order

report – ‘Future Operating Environment 2035’ – that describes the poten-

what you can’t pay for; and once you’ve decided what you want, stick to it.

tial characteristics of the environment in which the British armed forces

So said Sir Bernard Gray, until recently the UK Chief of Defence Materiel,

and government agencies are likely to operate in two decades’ time.

On 9 March, Director of the DCDC Rear Admiral John Kingwell,

responsible for purchasing and supporting all military kit.

Speaking in a valedictory lecture at Arundel House on 8 December,

launched the report at Arundel House. The report aims to provide a clear

Gray explained how he addressed the flawed process that allowed the

military context for policymakers, in order to inform the debate on future

Ministry of Defence to buy equipment worth tens of billions of pounds

capabilities and concepts. This included the key institutional, techno-

more than it could actually afford. Programmes for new kit that was essen-

logical, cultural and physical characteristics likely to shape the military

tially unaffordable proceeded at a snail’s pace so as to keep down the

operating environment in the future. Of these, increasing urbanisation and

annual spending on them. Gray pointed out that these delays were not

anti-access and area-denial capabilities were assessed as important factors.

cost-free, either in terms of money or operational capability. When offering

The report also placed understanding people and their motivations as a

lessons for the future, he suggested that risk-sharing between the buyer and

core capability for future armed forces. It went on to identify some of the

supplier was the answer, in addition to international cooperation – both

key future capabilities including unmanned systems and ‘big data’ analyt-

easier said than done, he admitted. He concluded by saying ‘To see clearly,

ics.

we must rise above the trees to see the forest.’ The meeting was chaired by Alexander Nicoll, Senior Fellow for Geo-economics and Defence.

Listen to the event.

Although the briefing was off the record, slides are available on the website and the full report can be downloaded. Brigadier (Retd) Ben Barry, Senior Fellow for Land Warfare at IISS, chaired the event.

The Road from Sarajevo: British Army Operations in Bosnia 1995–96 Just over 20 years ago, the savage Bosnian civil war was ended politically by the Dayton Agreement. But the treaty’s military provisions had to be implemented on the ground by NATO forces. On 10 March, IISS Senior Fellow for Land Warfare Brigadier (Retd) Ben Barry launched his new book on the decisive military role of the UK in these challenging operations.

British forces in Bosnia, 2012 (Crown copyright)

In a detailed analysis of their peace enforcement mission, he illustrates the challenges of these operations, often in the words of the officers and

British miscalculations in the Iraq and Afghan wars. The event was chaired

soldiers taking part. The book analyses the factors that influenced the mili-

by Dr Bastian Giegerich, Director of Defence and Military Analysis at IISS,

tary successes of the NATO Implementation Force and its British military

and took place at Arundel House in London.

contingent. It also shows how the success of these operations gave rise to military and political overconfidence, which contributed to subsequent

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Listen to the event and find contemporary news reports of the operations on the website.

IISS NEWS

EXPERTS

DEFENCE

DEFENCE ECONOMICS

ISLAMIC STATE

DEFENCE AND MILITARY ANALYSIS

The Military Balance 2016 The Military Balance 2016 was launched at a series of events in February and March. The main press launch took place at Arundel House in London on 9 February, in front of international print and broadcast media. ‘The proliferation of advanced military capabilities, and of new and innovative technologies, is leading to an increasingly complex balance of military power,’ said Dr John Chipman, IISS Director-General and Chief Executive, in his opening remarks. Across the world, access to militarily-relevant high technologies is growing and ‘for Western military powers, unfettered access is no longer a given, nor is technological superiority. Western military technological superiority, a core assumption of the past two decades, is eroding.’ Slowing this emerging trend or reversing it, Chipman said, ‘will be a key preoccupation of Western strategists in the coming decade.’

IISS experts talk with members of the press following the launch

Russia and China, The Military Balance notes, are increasingly active in the development and deployment of advanced military capabilities.

Foundation – the third year that Korber have hosted a Military Balance

Indeed, the advanced systems now in service with Russia’s armed forces

launch event. Finally, 1 March saw the team launch the book at the IISS–

call ‘into question a key element of NATO’s plan, initiated in Wales, rapidly

Americas office in Washington DC, where the audience included defence

to reinforce allies.’ Meanwhile, 2015 saw the first sign of defence-budget

industrialists, government officials

stabilisation in Europe since 2008. The book contains analysis indicating

and journalists.

that, while reaching NATO’s 2% target will be difficult, some states – par-

The Military Balance 2016 is

ticularly in Europe’s east and north – are now registering real increases in

packed with defence facts and

defence outlays. That said, continuing the recent trend, ‘Asia now spends

objective analysis, as well as charts,

nearly US$100 billion more on defence than NATO’s European member

graphics and maps supporting

states.’

the trends outlined in the book.

The London launch was followed two weeks later by an interactive

Specialist essays focus on deterrence

webinar on the book’s conclusions, hosted by Director of Defence and

in cyberspace, developments in

Military Analysis Dr Bastian Giegerich. Subsequently, and as in previous

armoured fighting vehicle technolo-

years, members of the IISS Defence and Military Analysis Programme con-

gies, and China’s ballistic missiles

ducted launches in other countries. On 25 February, simultaneous events

sector, while this year’s wall chart

took place in Brussels and Berlin. In Brussels, four team members briefed

carries analysis of Gulf region mis-

an audience of around 50, including diplomats and military profession-

sile defence capabilities.

als, at the Egmont Palace. The event was hosted by the Egmont Institute.

Two team members spoke in Berlin at a launch hosted by the Korber

Watch the press launch in London or watch the IISS–Americas launch.

Is the Campaign Against ISIS Succeeding?

Between late 2015 and early 2016, the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, suffered battlefield reverses in the Iraqi towns of Baiji, Sinjar and Ramadi. This suggested that last year’s efforts to accelerate the campaign against ISIS were having a positive effect. Yet, major hurdles to dislodge the group in Iraq and Syria remain.

On 3 February, Linda Robinson, Senior Policy Analyst at the RAND Corporation, presented an assessment of the United States-led campaign to counter ISIS. Based on her research over the previous 18 months, including field trips to Iraq, Jordan and Kuwait, her analysis focused on the

Peshmerga soldiers training near Erbil, Iraq, October 2015 (US Army/Tristan Bolden)

political and military aspects of the strategy, including the alignment of political interests within Iraq and Syria and the military capabilities of the

Barry, Senior Fellow for Land Warfare at IISS, and took place at Arundel

various forces on which the counter-ISIS coalition is reliant for success on

House in London.

the ground. The discussion meeting was chaired by Brigadier (Retd) Ben

IISS NEWS

Watch the event.

MAY 2016 | 5

SOUTH ASIA

PAKISTAN

INDIA

NUCLEAR

IISS South Asia Security Workshop: Building Regional Security and Countering Extremism and Terrorism The second IISS workshop on South Asian security, supported by the Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies (NESA), took place at the IISS– Middle East office in Manama, Bahrain, on 23–24 April.

This off-the-record track 1.5 meeting brought together 30 participants, including serving Indian and Pakistani top intelligence officers, senior government officials and diplomats, members of parliament and other influential opinionmakers from India, Pakistan and Afghanistan. Nearly half the participants were attending the workshop for the first time.

The discussion focused on the region’s security issues. The substantive sessions included ‘Talking to the Taliban in Afghanistan’, ‘Improving India–Pakistan Relations’ and ‘Countering Daesh/ISIS in South Asia’. For

The workshop focused on the region’s security issues

the first time, a highly interactive session on the role of the regional media in facilitating or disrupting peace processes took place.

The workshop was organised by Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, IISS Senior

for South Asia, along with IISS Conference and Events Coordinators Lilli Harkonen and Mohamed Al Shamlan. The third IISS South Asia Security

Fellow for South Asia, and Antoine Levesques, IISS Research Associate

Workshop is expected to take place in Bahrain in April 2017.

Pakistan’s Security Perspective

Deterrence at Sea – India’s Evolving Options

Pakistani forces in the Swat valley (Wikimedia)

In this key address at Arundel House on 26 April, Pakistan’s Federal

The Indian Navy’s major annual TROPEX exercise, 2014 (Indian Navy)

Minister for Interior and Narcotics Control, Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan, urged the West to work alongside Muslims and adopt regional

The first naval officer to be Commander-in-Chief of India’s Strategic

approaches to fight terrorism. He noted that incidences of terrorist-related

Forces Command, Vice Admiral (Retd) Vijay Shankar, spoke in a discus-

violence in Pakistan had decreased in the first four months of 2016, fol-

sion meeting at the IISS on 31 March. Shankar talked primarily about

lowing an increase in coordination and sharing of information among

India’s Arihant class nuclear-powered and nuclear-armed submarine,

Pakistan’s 33 intelligence agencies.

which is expected to be commissioned shortly, and discussed the devel-

In response to a query, Nisar explained that the ambitious China–

opment of India’s nuclear programme. He explained that the INS Arihant

Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project would lead to changes in

was the first of five Arihant class submarines planned to be built in India,

almost every environment of Pakistan. The Pakistan government’s pri-

the second of which was under construction. It was armed with the K-15

mary focus was on promoting, supporting and protecting this project.

missile, which has a range of 800km – the 3,500km K-4 missile would be

Nisar expressed his satisfaction at the positive state of Pakistan–UK rela-

deployed later.

tions, but called for an improvement in bilateral relations with the Afghan

Shankar called for India to develop greater strategic ties with China,

government. Following the implementation of the 20-point National

and stated that India’s deterrent relationship with China should be used as

Action Plan, the minister called for the institutionalisation of policies that

a model globally. In response to a query, he talked about how technology

reduce the targeting of minorities in Pakistan. Alongside this, Pakistan

affected deterrence stability, primarily with regard to the possibility of an

would continue to strengthen its border controls and intelligence-

increase in actors equipped with nuclear weapons in the Indian Ocean.

gathering efforts in order to improve the security situation in the country.

The meeting was chaired by Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, IISS Senior Fellow

The meeting was chaired by Adam Ward, Director of Studies, IISS.

for South Asia.

Watch the video.

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Listen to the event.

IISS NEWS

DEVELOPMENT

EXPERTS

Poverty Management and its Effect on Regional Stability

PAKISTAN

SOUTH ASIA

Pakistan’s Nuclear Diplomacy

18th SAARC Summit on November 26, 2014 in Kathmandu, Nepal (SAARC)

On 14 March, the IISS hosted Minister Marvi Memon, Chair of the Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP) and Minister of State in Pakistan, for a private roundtable meeting on poverty management. Memon explored the role of the BISP, which was Pakistan’s largest social safety net, in empow-

Former Pakistani Ambassador to the IAEA, Ali Sarwar Naqvi, with Antoine Levesques, Research Associate for South Asia at the IISS

ering women and educating children to manage poverty in Pakistan. She outlined the BISP’s new health insurance initiative, as well as plans to

One of Pakistan’s top diplomatic priorities is to negotiate its entry into

encourage the vulnerable to vaccinate their children and introduce family

the ‘mainstream’ of the global nuclear order as a ‘responsible’ nuclear

planning. Memon then detailed how the BISP was encouraging self-

state. But Pakistan’s access to international markets for peaceful uses of

employment through their newly established e-commerce system. She

nuclear energy should not be misconstrued as or preconditioned on ‘nor-

called for an increase in knowledge sharing on poverty-management strat-

malising’ Pakistan as a de facto nuclear weapons state. This was the key

egies in South Asia, through platforms such as the South Asian Association

message of former Pakistani Ambassador to the IAEA, Ali Sarwar Naqvi,

for Regional Cooperation.

on 4 May.

Following the question and answer session High Commissioner for

Speaking at Arundel House on ‘Pakistan’s Nuclear Diplomacy’,

Pakistan to the United Kingdom, Syed Ibne Abbas, provided additional

Ambassador Naqvi delivered a wide-ranging set of remarks and dis-

remarks on poverty management and alleviation in Pakistan and the

cussion points, which provided a comprehensive overview and robust

successes of BISP. The meeting was also attended by Philip Barton, a

defence of Pakistan’s positions on key international nuclear policy debates,

senior FCO official and, until recently, the British High Commissioner to

its stance on its own defence and deterrence posture, and relations with

Pakistan. It was chaired by Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, IISS Senior Fellow for

India. The event was chaired by Antoine Levesques, Research Associate

South Asia.

for South Asia at the IISS.

Listen to the event.

Listen to the event.

PUBLICATIONS

Survival: Global Politics and Strategy In the April–May 2016 issue of Survival, Ariel Ahram and Ellen Lust explore the decline and fall of the Arab state; Michael Boyle warns of a coming illiberal order; Stephen Larrabee explores the Kurdish issue; Daniel Fiott suggests paying for NATO defence infrastructure with EU funds; Stephan Frühling and Guillaume Lasconjarias take on

The IISS welcomes

Carol Reed

the following:

Director of Communications

Ben Carey Director of

NATO’s Kaliningrad problem; Tomasz Paszewski asks if

Operations

Poland is ready to defend itself; Matthias Matthijs con-

Holly Marriott

siders German power; Bastian Giegerich and Maximilian Terhalle discuss the Munich consensus; Jonathan Caverley and Ethan Kapstein analyse Asian arms imports; Russell Crandall and Wade Leach contribute a review essay on history and policy; Gilles Andréani, Ray Takeyh, David Unger and H.R. McMaster review recent books; and Dana Allin investigates Donald Trump’s America.

IISS NEWS

Appointments

Webb Editorial Assistant, Online Sonam Rabadia Junior Accounts Assistant

Leigh Morris Sloane Managing Director, IISS–Americas Sam Nugée Director-General’s Office Coordinator Jonathan Stevenson Senior Fellow for US Defence; Editor of Strategic Comments

MAY 2016 | 7

ARMED CONFLICT

ARMED CONFLICT SURVEY

UKRAINE

CONFLICT RESOLUTION

The IISS Armed Conflict Survey 2016: Media Launch On 5 May, the 2016 edition of the Armed Conflict Survey was launched at Arundel House, with a keynote presentation by Professor Sir Lawrence Freedman, author of the book’s chapter on ‘Pessimism and Planning in Armed Conflict’. Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive of the IISS, then presented the principal findings of the 2016 survey, concerning the distribution of conflict fatalities globally; the recovery of territory from insurgents by states, with foreign assistance; the multi-front battle against ISIS; the surge in the number of refugees and IDPs; and the

IISS experts talk with members of the press following the launch

threat from foreign fighters.

Fatalities in the 37 active conflicts covered by the Armed Conflict Survey

fielded those questions comprised Dr

amounted to 167,000 in 2015, of which 50% occurred in the Middle East

Anastasia Voronkova, Research Fellow for

and 21% in Latin America. Six conflicts – Syria, Iraq, Central America,

Armed Conflict and Editor of Armed Conflict

Mexico, Nigeria (Boko Haram) and Afghanistan – accounted for four-fifths

Survey; Virginia Comolli, Research Fellow

of the total. Despite the rising death toll in Nigeria, fatalities fell markedly

for Security and Development; Hebatalla

in sub-Saharan Africa and some conflicts there registered de-escalation

Taha, Research Analyst at IISS–Middle East;

and progress towards conflict resolution.

and Jens Wardenaer, Research Analyst for

Questions from the assembled press representatives concerned rising

Armed Conflict.

fatalities in Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia’s intervention in Yemen, the use of

Watch the event. Members can buy the

unmanned aerial vehicles, the trajectory of the Darfur conflict and changes

2016 Armed Conflict Survey at a 50% discount

in headline fatality and displacement figures in 2014–15. The panel that

for a limited time.

Conflict Management in Ukraine: A Frontline Perspective On 11 April, the Armed Conflict Programme hosted a discussion meeting with Dr Samir Puri, Lecturer in the Department of War Studies at King’s College London. Puri shared his experience as a member of the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission in eastern Ukraine and highlighted the relative success of measures put into place to influence the scope, direction and dynamics of the conflict. He noted that the presence of Russians in the OSCE Mission could be viewed positively, as it created opportuni-

US and Ukraine training near Yavoriv, Ukraine, as part of Fearless Guardian II (US Army/Adriana M. Diaz-Brown)

ties for dialogue and cooperation, even if only within the framework of the Mission. He further discussed the devastating impact of the conflict on

The meeting was held at Arundel House and was chaired by Dr Anastasia

Ukraine’s economy, as well as the stark contrast between the east’s peri-

Voronkova, Research Fellow for Armed Conflict and the Armed Conflict

ods of escalation and de-escalation compared to the rest of the country.

Database at the IISS.

Understanding the Strategies of Non-state Actors in Armed Conflict: A Comparative Study

within the Armed Conflict Programme. Firstly, she highlighted the usefulness of understanding how armed actors justify violent collective action to their audiences and supporters, and how shifts in perception can explain the success of some non-state armed groups over others, especially in the Middle East. Secondly, she drew on examples to assess possible factors contributing to the spillover of conflict, including the diffusion of informa-

On 18 January, the IISS held a discussion meeting with Dr Anastasia

tion via social media. Thirdly, Voronkova suggested that conflict legacies

Voronkova, Research Fellow for Armed Conflict and the Armed Conflict

were not always entirely negative if the efforts of governments were

Database at the IISS. Voronkova addressed three prevailing themes in con-

directed towards reorganising communal interaction in less violent ways.

flict research, all of which constitute potential avenues for future research

The discussion was chaired by Adam Ward, Director of Studies at IISS.

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IISS NEWS

EXPERTS

ENERGY SECURITY

MIDDLE EAST

GEO-ECONOMICS

ECONOMIC AND ENERGY SECURITY

The Security of Oil Trade: A Regional Geo-economics Perspective On 3 February, the IISS–Middle East office hosted three panellists in Bahrain to discuss the importance of secure trade routes and geo­political factors affecting their viability. Addressing industry risks, Sheikh Al Khalifa, Chief Executive of Nogaholding, said the price of oil no longer reflected the implications of risk, warning that this development was

Oman and Iran, separated by the Strait of Hormuz (nasa.gov/Stuart Rankin)

‘not very wise’. He emphasised that the impact of changing oil prices on oil-dependent Gulf countries had been widely underestimated as

and Energy Studies, noted that changes in the status quo had fundamental

a risk. Dr Jarmo Kotilaine, Chief Economist at the Bahrain Economic

impacts on the security of trade routes.

Development Board, spoke of the technological advances and significant

Chairing the panel was Dr Pierre Noël, Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah Senior

re-configurations in the supply side of the oil market in recent years.

Fellow for Economic and Energy Security at the IISS, who presented risk

He characterised American oil production as a short-lived ‘renaissance’,

analyses of two key trade routes in the Middle East and Southeast Asia on

forecasting that the old powers would reassert their dominance in the

behalf of Asian energy importers. He discussed the value of new pipeline

industry.

systems in alleviating the risks of maritime insecurity in the South China

Meanwhile, Dr Omar Al-Ubaydli, Program Director for International and Geo-Political Studies at the Bahrain Centre for Strategic, International

Sea and highlighted the concentrated reliance on the Middle East.

Watch the event.

Security of Seaborne Oil and Gas Trade: An Economic Approach Dr Pierre Noël, Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah Senior Fellow for Economic and Energy Security at the IISS, presented his key findings on the implications of maritime insecurity in the Middle East and Southeast Asia at Arundel House on 27 January.

Noël discussed changing security dynamics in Asian and Middle

USS Ronald Reagan in the Strait of Malacca (Kevin B. Gray/US Navy)

Eastern areas that were directly tied to Asian energy suppliers, exacerbating existing threats to the global energy market. Emphasising the link

behalf of Asian energy importers. Additionally he discussed the value of

between maritime security and energy-supply security, Noël presented

new pipeline systems that would alleviate the risks of maritime insecurity

figures on the costs of insuring Asian energy imports, as well as risk

in the South China Sea. The meeting was chaired by Dr Dana Allin, IISS

analyses conducted on two key trade routes in the Middle East (Strait of

Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy and Transatlantic Affairs.

Hormuz) and Southeast Asia (Strait of Malacca and South China Sea) on

Watch the event.

EUROPEAN STRATEGY

Peace Without Money, War Without Americans – Can European Strategy Cope?

of shifting its strategic focus to Asia and the Pacific. Noting that the EU was in the process of drawing up a replacement to the 2003 European Security Strategy, Biscop put forward four questions that the result must address.

Firstly, the question of global governance – what should Europe’s position be on reform? Secondly, the question of how to deal with cer-

Professor Dr Sven Biscop, Director of the Europe in the World programme

tain individual powers like Russia and China. Thirdly, the question of the

at Egmont – The Royal Institute for International Relations, discussed some

broader European neighbourhood – through the European Neighbourhood

of the challenges facing the EU with Dr Bastian Giegerich, IISS Director of

Policy the EU attempts to promote its values to the immediate south and

Defence and Military Analysis, on 4 February.

east, but has had mixed success. How should Europe proceed on this

Biscop argued that Europe faced a ‘double challenge’: to resolutely act

front? Fourthly, and finally, Biscop questioned what role Europe should

to protect vital interests in its neighbourhood while most of its member

play when things go wrong, and whether or not it should take on the role

states were in the grip of austerity and while the US was in the process

of a security provider.

IISS NEWS

MAY 2016 | 9

FUTURE CONFLICT AND CYBER SECURITY

CYBER SECURITY

SPACE

EXPERTS

The Strategic Aspects of Space On 19 April, Arundel House welcomed Sir Martin Sweeting OBE, the Executive Chairman of Surrey Satellite Technology Ltd. (SSTL), to speak about the strategic importance of space to the United Kingdom.

Founded in the 1970s by Sir Martin, SSTL pioneered rapid-response, low-cost and highly capable small satellites, using modern consumer electronics to change the economy of space. The advancements in the field of small satellites made by Sir Martin have shaped today’s space domain.

With much lower barriers to entry, there has been a proliferation of small satellites, and almost all states today are dependent upon space to some

A large array of radio telescopes (ESO/Babak Tafreshi)

degree.

Sir Martin spoke about a series of interrelated concerns, including the

risk of non-state actors dominating in space. The meeting was chaired by

benefits to the UK of acquiring a sovereign observation capability, the role

Nigel Inkster, Director of Future Conflict and Cyber Security at the IISS,

that satellites would play in the 5G ecosystem, the big data opportunities

and a copy of Sir Martin’s slideshow is available on the website.

and challenges presented by the continuous monitoring of earth, and the

Listen to the event.

Academic Network Workshop

Track 1.5 Dialogue on Cyber Security

In late February, the Future Conflict and Cyber Security

In March, delegates from Chinese

programme convened a meeting of the Academic Network

government

on behalf of the Foreign and Commonwealth Office to

research institution China Institutes of

discuss the feasibility of the UK government adopting

Contemporary International Relations

elements of a multi-stakeholder approach in international

joined UK government representatives,

cyber security. Participants discussed the applicability of

academics and IISS staff for a track 1.5

the multi-stakeholder model to internet governance as

dialogue on the topic of cyber security.

well as the roles that the private sector, academia and civil society can take in furthering the international cyber security agenda.

agencies

and

the

This meeting, held in London, focused A US cyber transport systems technician (USAF/ George Goslin)

Following the workshop, the programme held a stu-

on cooperation between the UK and China on issues of cyber security, and how this can improve prosperity for

dent essay competition in order to recruit the next generation of academics to this network. Two essays were

each country.

selected by our panel, and their authors met with IISS experts in April.

Survival Seminar: Encryption Policy and the Darknet On 3 February, the IISS hosted security studies Professor Thomas Rid and PhD Candidate Daniel Moore, both from King’s College London, to speak about their recent lead article in the February–March 2016 issue of Survival, ‘Cryptopolitik and the Darknet’. The ground-breaking study – downloaded more than 30,000 times, making it Survival’s most-read article online – examined the material contained on the darknet, the encrypted hidden services provided by the Tor Project.

With their research showing that the primary uses for the darknet

(EFF-Graphics)

are illicit, they argued that the darknet demonstrates the need for each application of encryption to be judged on its merits, in order to prevent

of Survival and Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy and Transatlantic

legitimate uses of encryption being undermined. The meeting was held

Affairs.

at Arundel House in London and was chaired by Dr Dana Allin, Editor

10

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MAY 2016

Watch the event.

IISS NEWS

EXPERTS

RUSSIA

NATO

UNITED STATES

GEO-ECONOMICS

RUSSIA–EURASIA

Survival Seminar: The Nature of the Russian Threat to NATO On 17 December, IISS–Americas hosted a lecture to discuss articles from the December 2015–January

2016

edition

of

Survival.

Chaired by Mark Fitzpatrick, the event featured Dr Samuel Charap, IISS Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia, Jonathan Solomon, Senior Systems and Technology Analyst at Systems Planning and Analysis, Inc., and Elbridge Colby, Senior Fellow at the Center for a New American Security. Co-authors of ‘Facing Russia: Conventional Defence and

Swedish forces in Norway, February 2016, during Exercise Cold Response 16 which involved troops from 13 NATO and partner countries (US Marine Corps/Rebecca Floto)

Deterrence in Europe’, Colby and Solomon claimed that it was unclear if NATO had the strategy or capabilities to counter Russian aggression. In

Russia and NATO was unlikely because Russia’s objectives in Ukraine

order for NATO to achieve credible conventional deterrence, they argued,

were limited and specific. As such, he stated that the conflict in Ukraine

it must be able to ‘delay, disrupt, and deny’ Russia’s potential attacks

should not be seen as a template for a potential conflict between Russia

using ground, air, and naval forces, strategic logistics, and centralised

and NATO. Moreover, he questioned why NATO should doubt the effec-

command and control. A ‘tripwire’ approach – deterrence by punishment

tiveness of deterrence by punishment, given its long successful track

– was inadequate; NATO needed deterrence by denial. Author of ‘The

record during the Cold War and beyond.

Ghost of Hybrid War’, Charap contended that a ‘hybrid’ war between

Report Launch: The US and Russia in the Asia-Pacific

Watch the video.

Prospects for Russia’s Economy

Russian President Vladimir Putin with Chinese Premier Xi Jinping (kremlin.ru)

On 30 March, IISS–Americas launched ‘The US and Russia in the Asia-

Lunskoye-A offshore gas production platform, near Sakhalin Island, Russia (Pixabay)

Pacific’, the product of a two-year collaboration between the IISS and the Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations

On 13 April, Dr Igor Yurgens, Chairman of the Management Board of the

(IMEMO). Dr Samuel Charap, IISS Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia

Institute for Contemporary Development (Russia) and a member of the

and one of the report’s authors, introduced its findings and chaired the

IISS Council, gave a presentation at Arundel House on Russia’s economy.

discussion. Dr Vasily Mikheev, Deputy Director of IMEMO and another

Yurgens presented an insightful analysis of Russia’s recent economic per-

author of the report, presented his views on Russian foreign policy in the

formance in the wake of the fall in oil prices and the imposition of Western

Asia-Pacific. Dr Kurt Campbell, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of

sanctions. In particular he drew attention to the fall in real incomes,

the Asia Group and former Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia and

which marked the current crisis out from previous ones. Yurgens also

the Pacific, discussed key issues facing the US and Russia in the region, as

addressed the political impediments to undertaking structural reform,

well as potential areas for cooperation. Dr. Charap highlighted the short-

and spoke about Russia’s internal politics and the downturn in relations

term policy recommendations from the report for both Russia and the US

with Western states. The meeting was chaired by Dr Nicholas Redman,

regarding their bilateral interactions in the Asia-Pacific region.

Director of Editorial.

Watch the video and download the report.

IISS NEWS

Watch the video.

MAY 2016 | 11

IISS–AMERICAS

TERRORISM AND SECURITY

NORTH AFRICA

Book Launch – Evolution of the Cyber Domain: The Implications for National and Global Security

COUNTER-TERRORISM

EXPERTS

Book Launch – North Africa in Transition: The Struggle for Democracies and Institutions On 20 January, the latest Adelphi book on North Africa was launched at IISS–Americas in Washington DC. The panel included the book’s editor, Ben Fishman, Haim Malka, one of its contributing authors from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Egypt and Maghreb Affairs

An exercise at Nellis Air Force Base, Nev (USAF/ Brett Clashman)

John Desrocher.

On 5 April, IISS–Americas hosted a launch of the new strategic dossier on

addressing the core arguments of the

cyber security with Nigel Inkster, Director of Future Conflict and Cyber

book, namely how different institu-

Security, Dr Eneken Tikk-Ringas, Consulting Senior Fellow for Future

tions produced different outcomes

Conflict and Cyber Security, and Dr Mika Kerttunen, Director of Research

during the Arab Spring, as well as the role of the US and its European

for the Cyber Policy Institute.

allies in investing resources in the Maghreb. He highlighted Libya as a

Fishman opened the discussion by

Inkster explained that there are three leading global cyber powers:

case study for the need to empower local governments and promote intra-

China, Russia and the US. Each of these countries viewed the cyber domain

regional cooperation, rather than allowing the West to take full ownership.

differently; China and Russia believed that each nation should be able to

Malka expanded this analysis to the wider Maghreb region, characteris-

manage its cyber domain the way it saw fit, while the US had taken the

ing Algeria as the ‘lynchpin’ of the entire Middle East and forecasting a

stance that international law should prevail. These opposing views had

‘rough year’ of economic stagnation, growing radicalism and a lack of sus-

raised questions over the role that international norms play in governing

tainable government action. Desrocher emphasised the need for strategic

international law and policy. Tikk-Ringas emphasised that the purpose of

co­operation to counter violent extremism, enhance border security and

launching this strategic dossier was to bring some of these issues to light

remove economic barriers. The panellists agreed on the need for the US to

and to start a dialogue on ICT as a new avenue of national and normative

take a measured, long-term approach to promote cooperation on several

power. The event was held in Washington DC and was chaired by Mark

fronts, while also taking into account indigenous perspectives. The launch

Fitzpatrick, Executive Director of IISS–Americas.

was chaired by Mark Fitzpatrick, Executive Director of IISS–Americas.

Watch the event.

Watch the event.

The Changing Nature of Terrorism and Counterterrorism Speaking on 24 February at a discussion meeting on the evolution of terrorism and counterterrorism, Daniel Byman, a professor in the Security Studies Program at the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, stated that ‘a worldwide counterterrorism machine went into gear’ after 9/11 and had been growing ever since. He went on to explain that, due to the growth in terrorism threats, there had been global cooperation to fight terrorism as ‘the whole world has become the CIA.’ Byman suggested that Western states were increasingly consumed by fear as ISIS’ global expansion contin-

US forces in Afghanistan, 2013 (Justin Young/US Army)

ued, posing new challenges to politics and security.

Meanwhile, Bruce Hoffman, Director of Georgetown University’s

remained as to whether someone would intervene and, if they did, what

Center for Security Studies, spoke of how ISIS was creating a message of

happened next. The meeting was held in Washington DC and was chaired

‘empowerment, hatred with desire for revenge and retaliation’, suggesting

by Donald Daniel, a retired professor from the Center for Security Studies

the West had misread the threat as the Islamic State continued to grow.

at Georgetown University.

Both speakers agreed that, as the world tried to fight terrorism, questions

12

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Watch the event.

IISS NEWS

EXPERTS

IRAN

GULF STATES

GEOPOLITICS

IISS–AMERICAS

Western Defence Reassurances to Gulf Arabs After the Iran Deal: Are We on the Same Page?

On 21 April, Mark Fitzpatrick, Executive Director of IISS–Americas, chaired a 90-minute panel discussion featuring four panelists with extensive knowledge of defence reassurances after the Iran nuclear deal. The panel included Ellen Laipson, IISS Council Member and President Emeritus

Federica Mogherini, High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Mohammad Javad Zarif, Minister for Foreign Affairs, Iran (EEAS)

of the Stimson Center; Michael Eisenstadt, Military and Security Studies Program Director at the Washington Institute; Caroline Hurndall MBE,

that establishing a personal relationship with Gulf countries was essential

Head of the Middle East Team at the British Embassy in Washington; and

to the overall security of the region. There were, however, mixed views as

Bilal Saab, Resident Senior Fellow for Middle East Security at the Atlantic

to whether arms sales from NATO countries were complementary or com-

Council.

petitive. While Eisenstadt said that the current US administration had only

The discussion considered whether post-Iran deal arms sales to Gulf

further complicated relations in the region by increasing arms sales to Gulf

Cooperation Council countries met the goal of reassurance and how the

states, Hurndall was more optimistic, explaining that the relationships that

sales were affecting the geopolitics of the region. There was general con-

were forged were not transactional in nature and would help foster long-

sensus among the panel that the reaction by Gulf states to the Iran deal

term, personal relationships.

had not been the one that the US and its allies had hoped to achieve, and

Survival Seminar: The Coming Illiberal Order

Watch the event.

Iran After the Nuclear Deal On 9 December, IISS–Americas hosted a roundtable with Dr Ali Ansari, Director of the Institute for Iranian Studies at the University of St Andrews.

The discussion touched upon Iran’s internal politics, as well as its role in the region following the recent nuclear negotiations that resulted in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. When considering whether the negotiations would lead to political reforms on top of the lifting of sanctions, Ansari suggested that any reform would require structural changes within the Islamic Republic that had not yet been seen. He emphasised the re-election challenges Iranian President Hassan Rouhani would face in 2017 if the economy continued to stagnate, and stated that, although improved US–Iran relations were far off on the horizon, there might be agreement between the two countries on some issues. Ansari concluded by urging caution in dealing

UN headquarters, New York (UN/Manuel Elias)

with Iran, saying it would seize the opportunity to provoke the West if any signs of weakness were shown. Mark Fitzpatrick, Executive Director of the

Following the recent Survival article ‘The Coming Illiberal Order’, IISS–

IISS–Americas, chaired the event, which took place in Washington DC.

Americas hosted author Dr Michael Boyle, Assistant Professor of Political Science at La Salle University, to speak about his analysis of the new international order.

Boyle argued that the world was experiencing a resurgence in illiberal principles and authoritarian rule, while liberalism was on the decline. These

IISS–US becomes IISS–Americas

illiberal principles were at odds with the system that the US had imple-

The IISS office in Washington DC, which has been known as IISS–US since

mented and, according to Boyle, the refusal to abide by American rules is

its inception in 2001, has been rebranded as IISS–Americas. This name

an attempt to be recognised as equals on the international stage. He pre-

reflects the broader responsibilities of the office to represent the Institute

dicted that – in the absence of an unforeseen catalyst – this change would

and to continue to engage with policymaking communities, multilateral

occur slowly over time, and, although it would not remove the institutions

organisations, non-governmental organisations and multinational corpo-

that currently exist (such as the United Nations), their politics would adjust

rations throughout North and South America. The first formal event at the

to reflect the interests of the illiberal states. He also noted that alliances

Washington office under the new brand will be held on 24 May, featuring

between states were becoming more fluid and adaptable to the demands

former Canadian ambassador to Cuba Mark Entwistle, who will be offer-

of its members, and that in order for the US to preserve its power, it must

ing lessons on the Canadian experience to American businesses and other

become more flexible. The event was chaired by Dr Dana Allin, Editor of

organisations keen to take advantage of America’s re-engagement with

Survival and Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy and Transatlantic Affairs.

Cuba. More from IISS–Americas.

IISS NEWS

MAY 2016 | 13

IISS–MIDDLE EAST

ISLAMIC STATE

EGYPT

EXPERTS

COUNTER-TERRORISM

Islamic State and the Failures of the War on Terror

Adelphi Launch – Egypt After the Spring: Revolt and Reaction On 2 March, Arundel House saw the launch of an Adelphi volume of considerable scholarly analysis of post-Arab Spring Egypt. The panel, chaired by Emile Hokayem, IISS Senior Fellow for Middle East Security, included Michael Hanna, Senior

Fellow

Foundation, US aircraft refuel over northern Iraq (USAF/Matthew Bruch)

at

and

the IISS

Century Research

Analyst Hebatalla Taha. The ninechapter volume includes chapters

At a discussion meeting held on 29 February at Arundel House David

written by Emile Hokayem, Professor

Kilcullen, Former Counterinsurgency Advisor in Iraq and to the NATO

Nathan J. Brown, Professor Ellis

Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan, considered the West’s options

Goldberg, Dr Zeinab Abul-Magd,

for facing the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, in light of its finan-

Yasser El-Shimy, Michael Hanna,

cial and armed capabilities, and recent developments in the Middle East.

Dr H.A. Hellyer, Gamal Hassan,

He discussed the factors that led to the failure of the counter-terrorism

Hebatalla Taha and Mohamed El Dahshan. The book spans the turbulent

strategy of the US and its allies, the rise of ISIS amid the splintering of the

transition from the uprising against Hosni Mubarak in early 2011, through

Iraqi government and the anti-Assad movement in Syria, and the reasons

the election and removal of Muhammad Morsi, until Abdel Fattah Al Sisi’s

behind the influx of foreign fighters to the Islamic State from Europe, Asia

gain and consolidation of presidential powers by late 2015. The panel shed

and Africa. The event was chaired by Nigel Inkster, IISS Director of Future

light on the politics, power players, economy, security challenges and for-

Conflict and Cyber Security.

eign policy of Egypt, and offered insight into where the future might lead.

Watch the video.

Islamic State: Middle East Islamic Radicalism Goes Global

Watch the video.

Global Jihadism: Going Backwards?

Suspects in the 2016 Brussels bombings (Wikimedia) Scene from an ISIS video (Flickr)

On 29 February, Nigel Inkster, IISS Director of Future Conflict and Cyber On 24 February, the IISS hosted a corporate breakfast at Arundel House

Security, hosted a webinar on global jihadism and why radicalisation

with Professor Toby Dodge, IISS Consulting Senior Fellow for the Middle

appears to be on the rise. He discussed the emergence of the Islamic State,

East. He discussed the origins and modern incarnation of the Islamic State,

also known as ISIS or ISIL, in a setting where many thought Islamic radi-

also known as ISIS or ISIL, as well as its organisational structure, capac-

calism had been exhausted by al-Qaeda’s defeat and Osama bin Laden’s

ity and ideological appeal. Dodge examined the ability of ISIS to regroup

death in 2011. The discussion covered the unpredictable nature of ISIS

and remobilise after battlefield losses beyond its conventional operational

fighters and their higher levels of military experience and sophistication,

borders in Iraq and Syria and, with its appeal to sympathisers in other

along with future scenarios and potential policies to confront this threat.

regions, to speed up the recruitment of volunteers for suicide bomb attacks

The webinar was chaired by Adam Ward, IISS Director of Studies.

overseas.

14

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MAY 2016

Listen to the webinar.

IISS NEWS

EXPERTS

TERRORISM AND SECURITY

The Saudi–Iran Competition in the Middle East

IRAN

MIDDLE EAST

SYRIA

IISS–MIDDLE EAST

Syria: Between Escalation and Diplomacy

Syrian Opposition Council Chairman Moaz al-Khatib, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu and US Secretary of State John Kerry in Istanbul, 2013

Russian intervention has fundamentally changed the battlefield dynamics in Syria, argued Emile Hokayem, IISS Senior Fellow for Middle East Security, at an Arundel House discussion meeting on 3 March. Targeted

Air strike in Sana’a, Yemen, 2015 (Ibrahem Qasim)

strikes had quickly weakened the rebels in key areas, leading to significant At a corporate breakfast held at Arundel House on 3 March Emile

gains on the battlefield and a guaranteed role for the Syrian regime in any

Hokayem, Senior Fellow for Middle East Security at the IISS, examined the

negotiated settlement. Hokayem highlighted the growing popularity of

drivers and dynamics of the Saudi Arabia–Iran competition in the Middle

Jabhat al-Nusra among rebel groups in light of increased pressure from

East. Hokayem argued that this rivalry had become the primary fault

regime and Russian forces, and argued that these allegiances could fun-

line in the region, playing out primarily in the weak states and divided

damentally change the outlook of the conflict as rebels began to pursue

societies of the Arab world, exacerbating sectarianism. He noted that the

guerrilla tactics to fight Assad. Hokayem maintained that the Munich

strategies and policy instruments of both regional powers differed signifi-

agreement merely signified a reduction in violence, not a ceasefire, and

cantly, as did their respective expertise, experience and strategic patience.

warned that blocking humanitarian assistance continued to be a weapon

Hokayem concluded that the still unclear outcome of the Syrian crisis

in the hands of the Assad regime. The discussion was chaired by Adam

would matter more for the regional balance of power than the resolution

Ward, Director of Studies at the IISS. Watch the video.

of the Yemen conflict.

The Islamic State’s The Evolution of Jihadism Aspirations and Its Reality IISS Senior Fellow for Political Islamism, Dr Nelly Lahoud, gave a public lecture On 19 April, Dr Nelly Lahoud, IISS Senior Fellow for

at Arundel House on 20 April that pre-

Political Islamism, spoke at a corporate breakfast that

sented key events in the evolution of

explored the extent to which the Islamic State’s, also

jihadism in the context of the broader

known as ISIS or ISIL, state-building aspirations are in

sphere of political Islam. The lecture

sync with the group’s reality. She argued that although

highlighted similarities and differences

the volume of violence the group had generated and

within that sphere, and what these might

its capacity to commit more should not be underes-

mean for the future of jihadism. Lahoud

timated, ISIS was not only failing to hold on to the

covered the evolution of the Islamic

territory it had captured but it was also unable to exer-

State and discussed its differences with

cise a monopoly over the jihadi landscape. The most

al-Qaeda, particularly the irreconcilable

glaring failure of ISIS’ state-building project, Lahoud

ideological differences between the two

contended, was its inability to attract Syrian refugees,

groups. She argued that the outright

who were prepared to risk their lives to get to Europe

rejection of positive law upon which jihadism is premised limits the jihadis’ ability to reach

rather than seek refuge in the ‘caliphate’ next door. The

compromises, leaving them with a paradigm that necessarily favours literalism and rigidity

presentation was attended by members of the govern-

in interpreting religious texts. She concluded that while jihadism was not destined to be suc-

ment and corporate sectors, and was chaired by Dr

cessful, it was likely to feature more extremism and internal splits. The event was chaired by

Dana Allin, IISS Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy

Dr Toby Dodge, Consulting Senior Fellow for the Middle East.

and Transatlantic Affairs and Editor of Survival.

IISS NEWS

Al-Zaatari camp for Syrian refugees in Jordan (Mustafa Bader)

Watch the video.

MAY 2016 | 15

NON-PROLIFERATION AND NUCLEAR POLICY

NON-PROLIFERATION

EAST ASIA

SANCTIONS

EXPERTS

Survival Seminar: Nuclear Weapons Adelphi Launch - Asia’s Latent and the Scottish Independence Nuclear Powers: Japan, South Korea Debate and Taiwan

UK Royal Navy nuclear-powered submarine HMS Ambush (Crown Copyright/ Thomas McDonald)

Wolsong nuclear power plant, South Korea (IAEA)

On 4 December 2015, the first in a series of seminars chaired by Dr

On 18 February, Mark Fitzpatrick held the first European launch of his

Matthew Harries, Managing Editor of Survival, addressed the questions

new Adelphi book, Asia’s Latent Nuclear Powers: Japan, South Korea and

raised in William Walker’s article ‘Trident’s Replacement and the Survival

Taiwan. The book examines under what conditions the democracies in

of the United Kingdom’, published in the October–November 2015 issue

Northeast Asia might seek to join the nuclear-weapons club. They are all

of Survival. Walker, Professor Emeritus of International Relations at the

threshold nuclear powers by virtue of their robust civilian nuclear-energy

University of St Andrews, argued that by ignoring Scottish parliamentary

programmes, all three once pursued nuclear weapons and all face nuclear-

opposition to Trident’s renewal and its base in the Clyde, the UK gov-

armed adversaries. The book analyses these past nuclear pursuits and

ernment risked contributing to pressure for Scottish independence. He

current proliferation drivers. It considers how long it would take each to

suggested that if Scotland were to become independent – a possibility that

build a nuclear weapon if such a fateful decision were made, but does not

should not be discounted – the future of the UK’s nuclear deterrent would

predict such a scenario. It argues that reliance on US defence commitments

be jeopardised.

is a better security alternative, as long as such guarantees remain credible.

Listen to the event. The book was also launched by IISS–Americas in New York and Washington DC. Watch the video.

What the Iran Nuclear Accord Means for Sanctions Today and Tomorrow

Iran Nuclear Deal Implementation: Hiccups and Hurdles

In an ongoing collaboration with the United Nations Panel of Experts on

Speaking at this IISS corporate breakfast at Arundel House on 14 April,

Iran, the IISS Non-Proliferation and Nuclear Policy Programme held a

Mark Fitzpatrick noted that on the surface, implementation of the Iran

workshop in London on 14 January to discuss the Joint Comprehensive

nuclear accord was on track. Iran continued to honour the limits on its

Plan of Action (JCPOA) and its impact on the various sanctions regimes in

uranium enrichment programme and it was receiving frozen revenues

place until Implementation Day. The workshop, chaired by programme

and resuming oil sales. The Iranian public showed its enthusiasm for

director Mark Fitzpatrick, convened 44 industry representatives together

the deal by voting in February for the most moderate candidates who

with government officials and experts from the UN panel and the IISS.

were allowed to run. However, he argued, hardliners retained control

The meeting was primarily devoted to UN sanctions, the timetable for

of most key power centres and they were pursuing policies, including

phasing them out and the transition in some cases to ‘restrictions’ under

an aggressive missile launch schedule, that were sparking a backlash in

the JCPOA. It also included discussion of conventional arms transfers,

Washington. Meanwhile, sanctions relief had produced fewer benefits

Iran’s ballistic missile programme and the ‘Procurement Channel’ meant

than Iran expected, due to the reluctance of Western banks to handle trans-

to supply the legitimate needs of Iran’s nuclear programme. The seminar

actions. Both sides accused the other of violating the spirit of the accord.

concluded with a detailed overview of the JCPOA’s impact on US and EU

As troubling as these claims were, they pointed to the potential for new

sanctions.

diplomatic initiatives to address respective concerns.

16

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MAY 2016

IISS NEWS

EXPERTS

NORTH KOREA

The Iran Nuclear Deal: Challenges of Implementation

IRAN

NON-PROLIFERATION AND NUCLEAR POLICY

Double Take: The Iran Nuclear Deal and North Korea’s Nuclear Test

Military parade, North Korea (Flickr) IAEA Safeguard inspectors (Dean Calma / IAEA)

Dr Gary Samore, Executive Director for Research at the Belfer Center at On 15 December 2015, Dr Dana Allin, Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy

Harvard University, discussed recent nuclear events with Adam Ward,

and Transatlantic Affairs, chaired a discussion meeting with Dr Robert

Director of Studies at the IISS, on 19 January. Samore, former Director of

Litwak, Vice President of the Woodrow Wilson Center. Litwak argued

Studies at the IISS, used his homecoming discussion meeting to explore

that many of the challenges likely to arise during implementation of the

the question of how America’s chosen diplomatic strategy to prevent

Iran deal were anticipated during the negotiations. On the surface, the deal

nuclear proliferation managed to produce one result in Iran and a totally

was a straightforward trade-off between technology and transparency, but

different one in North Korea. Samore, once described by President Barack

underlying that both the Obama administration and the Iranian Supreme

Obama as ‘my nuclear guy’, argued that the difference in results achieved

Leader had made a tacit transformational bet: the Obama administration

by the Obama administration could be explained by three main factors: the

bet that Iran woud be in a different place in 15 years, and the Supreme

status of each country’s nuclear programme, the type of government and

Leader bet that Iran could pocket the economic benefits and ‘prevent the

its motivations for having a nuclear programme, and the amount of lever-

contagion’ at the same time.

age America was able to bring to bear on the problem.

Listen to the event.

Watch the event.

PUBLICATIONS

New Adelphi Books

take each to build a nuclear weapon if such a fateful decision were made

Adelphi 455

down a nuclear path, democracy and a free press now prevail as barriers

Asia’s Latent Nuclear Powers: Japan, South Korea and Taiwan

to building bombs in the basement. Reliance on US defence commitments

Mark Fitzpatrick

is a better security alternative – as long as such guarantees remain credible.

Under what conditions would the democracies in Northeast Asia seek

But extended deterrence is not a barrier to proliferation of sensitive nuclear

to join the nuclear weapons club? Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are

technologies. Nuclear hedging by its Northeast Asian partners will chal-

threshold nuclear powers by virtue of their robust civilian nuclear-energy

lenge Washington’s nuclear diplomacy.

but does not predict such a scenario. Unlike when each previously went

programmes. All three once pursued nuclear weapons and all face nucleararmed adversaries. Fitzpatrick’s latest book analyses these past nuclear

Adelphi 453–454

pursuits and current proliferation drivers. It considers how long it would

Egypt After the Spring: Revolt and Reaction Edited by Emile Hokayem with Hebatalla Taha This Adelphi volume brings together senior scholars as well as rising analysts of Egypt to examine the tumultuous period from the January 2011 uprising against Hosni Mubarak, via the election and ouster of Muhammad Morsi, to the consolidation of presidential power under Abdel Fattah Al‑Sisi by late 2015. The nine authors provide a sober, in-depth look at the country’s contested politics, institutional and political players, struggling economy, constant foreign policy and evolving security challenges.

The nine chapters are written by Professor Nathan J. Brown, Professor Ellis Goldberg, Dr Zeinab Abul-Magd, Yasser El-Shimy, Michael Wahid Hanna, Dr H.A. Hellyer, Gamal Hassan, Hebatalla Taha and Mohamed El Dahshan.

IISS NEWS

MAY 2016 | 17

PUBLICATIONS ASIA SECURITY SUMMIT

IISS Shangri-La Dialogue publications

IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

Forthcoming Adelphi Book

ing to invest in the global commons,

Adelphi 456

try’s growth and modernisation

China’s Cyber Power

will lead inexorably to democratic

Nigel Inkster

political reform. This Adelphi book

China’s emergence as a major global power is reshaping the cyber domain.

examines

The country has the world’s largest internet-user community, a growing eco-

cal and cultural development of

nomic footprint and increasingly capable military and intelligence services.

China’s cyber power, in light of

Harnessing these assets, it is pursuing a patient, assertive foreign policy that

its evolving internet, intelligence

seeks to determine how information and communications technologies are

structures, military capabilities and

governed and deployed. This policy is likely to have significant normative

approach to global governance. As

impact, with potentially adverse implications for a global order that has been

China attempts to gain the economic

shaped by Western liberal democracies. And, even as China goes out into the

benefits that come with global

world, there are signs that new technologies are becoming powerful tools for

connectivity while excluding infor-

domestic social control and the suppression of dissent abroad.

mation seen as a threat to stability,

Western policymakers are struggling to meet this challenge. While there is much potential for good in a self-confident China that is will-

Forthcoming Strategic Dossier: Asia-Pacific Regional Security Assessment 2016: Key developments and trends

there is no guarantee that the coun-

the

political,

histori-

the West will be forced to adjust to a world in which its technological edge is fast eroding and can no longer be taken for granted.

expected at the Dialogue in 2016 and subsequent years: •

The role of the Asian major powers – China, India and Japan – in regional security.

•

Maritime

security

chal-

including

the

Each year since 2002, the International Institute for Strategic Studies has

lenges,

organised the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. At this inter­governmental

militarisation of the South China Sea.

regional security summit, defence ministers, military chiefs and other lead-

Potential

regional

states – and other countries vitally involved in the region – meet to discuss

points:

the

the crucial regional security matters of the day. The Dialogue has become

Peninsula and Taiwan.

ing members of the national-security establishments of the Asia-Pacific

a fixture in the calendars of key defence decision-makers from the 27 coun-

•

•

Korean

Developments in regional states’ naval and defence-

tries that regularly send delegations.

industrial capabilities.

The Asia-Pacific Regional Security Assessment 2016 is the third IISS Strategic Dossier to be published in association with the IISS Shangri-La

flash-

•

Emerging regional security issues in the form of challenges from

Dialogue. It focuses on five centrally important groups of regional

unregulated migration and the Islamic State, and the wider impli-

security concerns relevant to the important discussions that can be

cations of economic-cooperation initiatives.

IISS Shangri-La Dialogue 2016

IISS Manama Dialogue 2016

The 15th Asia Security Summit, the IISS

The 12th Regional Security Summit, the IISS Manama Dialogue,

Shangri-La Dialogue, will take place on 3–5

will take place on 9–11 December 2016. Further details will be

June 2016. Subjects to be debated include how

available in the build-up to the Dialogue.

to meet Asia’s complex security challenges,

The report of the IISS Manama Dialogue 2015 is available

how to manage military competition in Asia

along with video and transcripts for all Plenary Sessions, the

and how to make defence policy in uncertain

Opening Televised Panel and the Opening Remarks and Keynote

times. Further details and the outline agenda

Address.

are available.

18

|

MAY 2016

IISS NEWS