IISS Newsletter July 2016

IISS news

July 2016

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IISS Shangri-La Dialogue . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

Future Conflict and Cyber Security . . . . . . . 17

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Asia-Pacific Security . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

IISS–Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

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Non-Proliferation and Disarmament . . . . . . 19

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European Strategy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

IISS–Americas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

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15th IISS Shangri-La Dialogue: A Defence Summit amid Rising Regional Tension

General (Retd) Prayut Chan-o-cha, Prime Minister, Thailand

The 15th IISS Shangri-La Dialogue was held in

leading up to the Dialogue, he said. These publi-

Chipman noted that this leader and his government

Singapore from 3–5 June 2016 amid rising tension

cations included the latest edition of The Military

had pursued policies aimed at radically reform-

in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly in the South

Balance, the 2016 Asia-Pacific Regional Assessment,

ing their country’s political scene since they came

China Sea. In his introductory comments before

two Adelphi books, and an important report on

to power in 2014. The audience at the Shangri-La

the Dialogue’s Keynote Address on the even-

the European Union’s security policy options in

Hotel was fortunate, said Chipman, to have the

ing of Friday, 3 June, IISS Director-General and

Southeast Asia. These had helped to create ‘the fac-

chance to hear the prime minister, who had not pre-

Chief Executive Dr John Chipman noted that the

tual and analytical context’ for the meeting, which

viously spoken extensively either to international

Dialogue’s ‘enduring goal’ was to inspire ‘astute

brought together defence ministers and defence

audiences or on regional and international themes.

defence diplomacy’ in the Asia-Pacific region. In

professionals from around the Asia-Pacific and

order to provide ‘the best intellectual underpin-

beyond to debate regional security issues.

Prayut began his address by agreeing that the Shangri-La Dialogue had ‘played a significant

ning’ for the Dialogue, the Institute had published

Introducing the Keynote Speaker, Thailand’s

role in the promotion of cooperation in terms of

‘a remarkable range of material’ during the weeks

Prime Minister General (Retd) Prayut Chan-o-cha,

regional security among all our countries’. He also

SHANGRI-LA DIALOGUE

FOREIGN POLICY

CONFLICT PREVENTION

INTERNATIONAL LAW

General (Retd) Prayut Chan-o-cha, Prime Minister, Thailand

Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS

noted Singapore’s ‘significant role’ in promot-

‘regional architecture’, and particularly that

tance aimed at narrowing development gaps

ing regional security, and referred to the first

‘many countries’ were concerned that China’s

between states, strengthening relations with

Prime Minister of Singapore Lee Kuan Yew’s

growing economic and security roles would

neighbouring countries in order to avoid the

observations on this theme when he delivered

‘affect the balance of power and security in the

need to ‘choose sides’, promoting cooperation

his own Keynote Address at the first Shangri-La

Asia-Pacific’. In Prayut’s view, it was necessary

between major powers involved in the region,

Dialogue in 2002. He particularly highlighted

for ASEAN to ‘be united and play a critical role

re-evaluating notions of sovereignty, promot-

Lee’s predictions that ‘more countries would

in creating a new strategic balance in the region’.

ing ‘development in tandem with security’, and

play a role in our region’ and that ‘international

The prime minister spoke about the challenges

recognising the need to cooperate on specific

terrorism would spread’.

of creating such a balance, and specifically about

security issues of regional and international con-

The notion of ‘balance’ was central to

the need to promote trust between regional

cern: the South China Sea and East China Sea;

Prayut’s address. He noted the lack of it in the

states, the importance of partnerships and assis-

the Korean Peninsula; terrorism and extremism; arms proliferation; irregular migration;

One of the IISS publications launched at the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue was an important report on the European Union’s security policy options in Southeast Asia

cyber-security; and environmental threats and natural disasters. Regarding regional maritime tensions, Prayut emphasised the importance of not only ASEAN unity and the implementation of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, but also the need for claimant states to ‘change their perspectives’ and ‘carry out constructive activities … for mutual benefit’ on the basis of international law.

In the final part of his Keynote Address, Prayut focused on Thailand’s domestic challenges, stressing that the country was ‘in a period of transition to a robust and sustainable democracy’ while confronting ‘complex and multidimensional security issues’. He explained that ‘the issue that affects us most is political conflict and a more divided population than has ever been seen before’, resulting in ‘a disorderly society’. If these issues were ignored, Thailand would ‘lose its balance, which may lead to conflict and civil war’. In these circumstances, Prayut believed he had no choice but ‘to use military force to re-stabilise the country’. The

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JULY 2015

IISS NEWS

DEFENCE POLICY

UNITED STATES

SHANGRI-LA DIALOGUE

land and sea’. US President Barack Obama’s ‘historic visit to Hanoi’ the previous week had demonstrated the ‘dramatically strengthened US–Vietnam partnership’, while the US and Singapore were ‘working together to build cooperation, provide security and respond to crises in Southeast Asia’.

Carter explained that through the Maritime Security Initiative that he had announced at the previous year’s Shangri-La Dialogue the US was helping Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam to develop their maritime surveillance, communications and information-processing capabilities, and to ‘develop a networked approach to regional challenges’. He said that throughout the region countries were coming together in three ways: through trilateral mechanisms including the US (for example, the US–Japan–Republic of Korea partnership coordinating responses to North

Dr Ashton Carter, Secretary of Defense, United States

Korean provocations); bilateral and trilateral partnerships among Asian states (such as marichallenge for Thailand was how to resolve these

continues to have the opportunity and freedom

time exercises involving Japan and Vietnam);

issues, while making ‘the global community

to rise, to prosper and to win’.

and through creating ‘a networked multilat-

understand that we do not wish to violate the

Carter used the word ‘principled’ repeatedly

eral regional security architecture’ in the form

rights of the people’. The prime minister argued

during his plenary address, above all in the con-

of the ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting Plus

that reforms had so far been effective, and were

text of the ‘principled security network’ that the

(ADMM-Plus).

being implemented ‘on the basis of the law’.

US is encouraging across the Asia-Pacific. Carter

The defense secretary argued that ‘this

The government was also taking action to

noted that this growing network ‘includes, but is

principled network’ was ‘not aimed at any par-

improve the country’s economic competitive-

more than, some extension of existing alliances’.

ticular country: it is open and excludes no-one’.

ness. He asked Thailand’s allies ‘to stand with

The US would remain ‘for decades’, ‘the pri-

In particular, the US ‘welcomes the emergence

us’ as his government attempted to create ‘a

mary provider of regional security and a leading

of a peaceful, stable and prosperous China

new balance, a new understanding’. Thailand’s

contributor’ to this network. The Department

that plays a responsible role’. He said the US

return to democracy, he said, would ‘help to

of Defense was deploying some of its ‘most

was consistently encouraging China to uphold

maintain balance within ASEAN’, which in turn

advanced capabilities’ to the region, including

rather than undermine ‘the shared principles’

would help create a ‘new balance in the Asia-

F-22 and F-35 combat aircraft, P-8 maritime

that had served the region ‘so well for so long’.

Pacific region’. Concluding, Prayut said that

patrol aircraft and ‘our newest surface-warfare

Crucially, though, he also pointed to ‘growing

‘since wars begin in the minds of men, it is in

ships’. Simultaneously, it was investing in new

anxiety in this region, and in this room, about

the minds of men that the defence of peace must

capabilities ‘critical to the rebalance’, including

China’s activities on the seas, in cyberspace

begin’.

Virginia-class submarines and the B-21 long-

and in the region’s airspace’, noting ‘expansive

range bomber. Carter emphasised that it would

and unprecedented actions that have generated

Meeting Asia’s Complex Security Challenges

‘take decades or more for anyone to build the

concerns about China’s strategic intentions’.

In the Dialogue’s first plenary session, on the

kind of military capability the United States

In Carter’s view, ‘China’s actions in the South

morning of 4 June, United States Secretary of

possesses’. Moreover, America’s ‘military edge

China Sea are isolating it’; if these actions con-

Defense Dr Ashton Carter noted the ‘historic

is strengthened and honed in unrivalled and

tinued, ‘China could end up erecting a Great

change’ underway in the Asia-Pacific, most

hard-earned operational experience’.

Wall of self-isolation’. that

The US, said Carter, would ‘stand with

try is seeking to play a greater role in regional

‘America’s defence relationships with allies

regional partners to uphold core principles, like

affairs, and that is for the good’. However, he

and partners are the foundation of US engage-

freedom of navigation and overflight, and the

also highlighted ‘tensions in the South China

ment in the Asia-Pacific’. The US–Japan alliance

peaceful resolution of disputes through legal

Sea, North Korea’s continued nuclear missile

‘remains the cornerstone of Asia-Pacific secu-

means and in accordance with international

provocations and the dangers of violent extrem-

rity’, according to Carter, while the US–Australia

law’. America would ‘continue to fly, sail and

ism’ as challenges to the region’s ‘stability and

alliance was ‘more and more a global one’. The

operate wherever international law allows’. The

prosperity’, and spoke of the need for ‘for-

alliance with the Philippines was ‘as close as

US viewed the anticipated ruling on the South

ward-thinking statesmen and leaders’ to come

it has been in decades’. At the same time, the

China Sea by the United Nations Permanent

together to ‘ensure a positive and principled

‘strategic handshake’ between the US and India

Court of Arbitration as ‘an opportunity for

future … where everybody and every nation

was allowing them to exercise together ‘by air,

China and the rest of the region to recommit to a

of which was positive: ‘country after coun-

IISS NEWS

The

defense

secretary

stressed

JULY 2015 | 3

SHANGRI-LA DIALOGUE

DEFENCE POLICY

FOREIGN POLICY

MILITARY COOPERATION

Manohar Parrikar, Minister of Defence, India

Dato’ Seri Hishammuddin Tun Hussein, Minister of Defence, Malaysia

Gen Nakatani, Minister of Defense, Japan

principled future’. Concluding, Carter spoke of

trust and confidence, thereby reducing the

states should base their claims on international

the US commitment to ‘working with China to

potential for military competition. He noted

law; that they should not use force or coercion;

ensure a principled future’, including through

that India had contributed to combatting piracy

and that states should seek to settle disputes

expanded

engagement

and to projects on navigation safety. The Indian

peacefully. Revisiting his 2015 announcement

focused not only on ‘risk reduction’ but also

Ocean Naval Symposium was a collective

of a ‘Shangri-La Dialogue Initiative’, Nakatani

practical cooperation. He argued that through

endeavour to strengthen maritime security, and

called for the implementation of its three ele-

a principled security network, the US, China

India had participated in maritime security dia-

ments: the wider promotion of common rules

and others in the region could together meet the

logues with Australia, China, France, Japan and

and laws at sea in the region; discussions on

challenges ‘we are facing together’.

the US and was building economic cooperation

maritime and aerospace security; and the

with maritime neighbours to reap the benefits of

enhancement of regional disaster-response

the ‘blue economy’.

capabilities.

military-to-military

Managing Military Competition in Asia Indian Minister of Defence Manohar Parrikar

Japan’s Minister of Defense, Gen Nakatani,

Malaysia’s Defence Minister Dato’ Seri

observed that Asia-Pacific countries were

spoke of Japan’s determination to work closely

Hishammuddin Tun Hussein called for a tai-

spending more on defence, and noted that some

with ASEAN and explained the development of

lored strategic approach to the ‘globalisation

states were catching up after prolonged neglect

Japan’s Security Legislation. He underlined the

of security challenges’, not least in the fight

of their defence budgets. In other countries,

indispensable role of the US military presence

against the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or

increased defence spending reflected new chal-

in the region and Japan’s support for America’s

ISIL. He emphasised ISIS’s control over terri-

lenges and roles for the armed forces.

rebalance

Nakatani

tory and its force of more than 31,000 fighters,

low-

expressed Japan’s appreciation for Obama’s

arguing that conventional counterterrorism and

security

recent visit to Hiroshima and his appeal for

counter-insurgency would never work against

threats and continuous non-traditional threats

a world free of nuclear weapons. Nakatani

it. Malaysia’s main platform for trust-building,

that ranged in impact from the negligible to the

described the region as being at a crossroads

according to Hishammuddin, was ASEAN,

dramatic. He outlined three main regional secu-

and facing a choice between ‘might makes right’

including the ASEAN Defence Ministers’

rity challenges: traditional territorial disputes;

and the rule of law.

Meeting (ADMM), which he argued had been

Parrikar probability,

distinguished high-risk

between

traditional

to

the

Asia-Pacific.

terrorism; and a spectrum of threats in the

Noting China’s large-scale and rapid land

critical in addressing maritime security, counter-

maritime domain. According to Parrikar, shared

reclamation and military construction in the

terrorism, peacekeeping operations, and disas-

prosperity and rapid growth were at risk from

South China Sea, Nakatani expressed deep

ter relief. Hishammuddin suggested that joint

aggressive behaviour in the South China Sea.

concern over unilateral attempts to alter the

exercises on uncontentious concerns could be

Noting that half of India’s trade passed through

status quo and to challenge the maritime order.

a panacea for military competition. Referring

these waters, he underlined the right to freedom

He was also concerned about China’s dan-

to Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong’s

of navigation and overflight, and the impor-

gerous behaviour in the East China Sea and

rejection in his Keynote Address to the 2015

tance of adherence to the UN Convention on the

the potential for escalation there. Nakatani

Shangri-La Dialogue of the notion that ‘might

Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Parrikar argued that

referred to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s 2014

is right’, Hishammuddin observed that some

collective action (for example, on Humanitarian

Shangri-La Dialogue Keynote Address, which

major states might not necessarily obey the

Assistance and Disaster Relief) would improve

urged adherence to three basic principles: that

rules of the international system. In conclu-

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JULY 2015

IISS NEWS

CONFLICT RESOLUTION

CONFLICT PREVENTION

SHANGRI-LA DIALOGUE

Michael Fallon, Secretary of State for Defence, United Kingdom

Han Minkoo, Minister of National Defense, Republic of Korea

General (Retd) Ryamizard Ryacudu, Minister of Defense, Indonesia

sion, Hishammuddin appealed for leadership

torial integrity, counter transnational threats,

still lacked an effective multilateral framework

and innovation in meeting regional security

and engage in peacekeeping activities. Second,

for security cooperation, the minister argued.

challenges, citing a recent agreement by the

Indonesia was trying to intensify defence coop-

There was no strong tradition of resolving dif-

defence ministers of Malaysia, Indonesia and

eration in the region to build confidence and

ferences through dialogue. While it was true

the Philippines to enhance cooperation on curb-

trust. Third, increased coordination in ASEAN

that negotiations between directly affected par-

ing threats in the Sulu Sea.

should also involve friendly countries from

ties often presented the best and most effective

beyond the grouping. Fourth, Indonesia was

way forward in conflict resolution, sometimes

Making Defence Policy in Uncertain Times

trying to build-up support for defence in the

these parties needed help and collective wisdom

In the third plenary session, Indonesia’s Minister

population as part of its counter-radicalisation

provided by others. For the ROK, multilateral

of Defense, General (Retd) Ryamizard Ryacudu,

measures. Finally, the government was trying

defence cooperation with countries in the region

opened by arguing that with every country

to empower state defence structures to adapt to

was a core objective. From the perspective of the

facing more complex and more dynamic secu-

a changing international environment, employ-

armed forces, activities in the areas of humani-

rity challenges than in the past, a coordinated

ing both soft- and hard-power elements.

tarian assistance and disaster relief, search and

response was necessary. The terrorist threat had

The Republic of Korea’s (ROK) Minister of

rescue, and combined maritime security exer-

taken on a new dimension, he said, with ISIS

National Defense, Han Minkoo, said military

cises should be the foci, he said. The ROK would

turning from a regional militia in Iraq and Syria

tensions on the Korean Peninsula were a grave

continue to stress multilateral security dialogue,

into a transnational threat. The minister warned

and severe threat. North Korea’s recent nuclear

building trust through transparency (including

that ISIS might inspire radicals in Indonesia, the

tests and advances in missile technology in the

in the area of defence budgets), and conflict res-

Philippines and Malaysia. He maintained that

Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK)

olution within the framework of international

ISIS ideology was ultimately more dangerous

represented a clear escalation, which was

law and norms.

than any damage the group might inflict on

further underlined by aggressive and unprece-

The United Kingdom’s Secretary of State for

infrastructure, because the ideology aimed to

dentedly strong rhetoric. International support,

Defence, Michael Fallon, pointed to the UK’s

undermine the national unity of countries such

as expressed in UN Security Council Resolution

2015 Strategic Defence and Security Review

as Indonesia.

2270 on 2 March 2016, condemning the DPRK’s

(SDSR) to underline the fact that unpredict-

The minister singled out maritime security

test and launch activities and imposing pow-

ability was increasing in international security.

as another important area because of its impor-

erful sanctions, showed that the international

There was a resurgence of state-based threats,

tance for global trade, which in turn was vital

community did not tolerate its behaviour. Han

and a simultaneous rise of non-state actors,

to support economic development in the region.

emphasised that while the ROK was interested

and increasing aggression by rogue actors.

Ryamizard expressed concern over disputes in

in sincere dialogue, such dialogue must be pre-

Furthermore, said Fallon, governments were

the South China Sea, but also hope that inten-

ceded by a strategic decision from the DPRK to

confronted with new mechanisms for waging

sive dialogue would lower tensions. Indonesia’s

relinquish its nuclear weapons.

war, such as cyber and hybrid approaches.

defence strategy, he proceeded to explain,

While Asia remained a dynamic region and

In this context, it was not possible to pick and

was built on five core elements. First, defence

an engine of global economic growth, it was

choose adversaries. The only response was

equipment modernisation would improve the

undeniable that tensions were on the rise. While

to stand up firmly and build greater capac-

ability of the armed forces to safeguard terri-

the region had many formats for cooperation, it

ity and capability, which was the aim of the

IISS NEWS

JULY 2015 | 5

SHANGRI-LA DIALOGUE

ASIA-PACIFIC

Dr Ng Eng Hen, Minister for Defence, Singapore; Dr Tony Tan Yeng Kam, President of Singapore; François Heisbourg, Chair of the IISS Council; and Dr John Chipman, DirectorGeneral and Chief Executive, IISS, at the Saturday evening reception at the Istana

SDSR, according to Fallon. He suggested that

to Le Drian, to achieve stability, several basic

and the leading role of ASEAN in the emerging

once the UK’s new aircraft carriers came into

ingredients were necessary. The first was the

regional security architecture. But lately, he said,

service in the 2020s, they would sail in the

rule of law. This was particularly important

there had been new sources of complexity such

region to support regional security. However,

in relation to the challenges of maritime secu-

as terrorism, nuclear proliferation, and mari-

it was clear Fallon argued, that successful

rity, in not just the South China Sea but also

time border disputes. In his view, the worsening

deterrence would not hinge on military might

the Arctic, the Mediterranean, and elsewhere.

security environment was rooted in clashing

alone. Defence needed an integrated approach,

He insisted that France would continue to sail

interests, added to which had been a mismatch

uniting diplomacy and military means. He

ships and fly aircraft wherever international

between actions and words, and what he called

pointed to the UK’s cross government counter-

law allowed and operational needs required.

the practice of double-standards and the pur-

ISIS task force which was working to fight the

In 2016, he said, the French Navy had already

suit of narrow self-interest by some countries. If

group’s ideology, cyber capability, and financial

deployed ships through the region three times.

unaddressed, he said, these phenomena would

base. Fallon pointed to the assertiveness of the

The second indispensable ingredient, he said,

erode peace and stability, fuel confrontation,

DPRK, concerns about terrorism, lingering ter-

was dialogue, and he regretted that there had

and lead to armed conflict. According to Vinh,

ritorial disputes, and non-traditional security

not been substantial progress on the South

underlying this worsening trend was a differ-

challenges in the region, to suggest that there

China Sea Code of Conduct. The third key

ence of perception of what constituted common

might be a new arc of instability emerging in

ingredient was firmness in the face of challenges

interests, against a backdrop of weak institu-

the region. Because of this possibility, it was

to the rules-based order, whether these came

tions and enforcement measures. He called for

important to shore up the rules-based interna-

from terrorism or North Korea. And for France,

a better, more holistic answer. It was vital for

tional order, strengthen alliances and do more

he said, firmness also involved being a reliable

states to cooperate through multilateral insti-

with partners. This way, capabilities and capac-

partner in the region. According to Le Drian,

tutions, with the utmost importance placed on

ity would increase while the costs of security

‘in this globalised world, there are no local or

regional organisations such as ASEAN. Vinh

and defence would come down. Referring to the

regional challenges, only shared challenges of

said the Shangri-La Dialogue was a testament to

Asia-Pacific, Fallon suggested the UK was ‘here

varying intensity’. France intended to contrib-

efforts to rationalise competition, and to foster

to stay and here to help’.

ute to maintaining stability in the Asia-Pacific

cooperation intended to settle differences peace-

region, he said. He also emphasised that France

fully. With regard to the South China Sea, Vinh

The Challenges of Conflict Resolution

was an EU country and that the situation in the

highlighted what he called ‘unilateralism’ and

As first speaker in the fourth plenary session,

South China Sea directly concerned the EU. So

‘coercion’, which risked responses from both

French Minister of Defence Jean-Yves Le Drian

he announced a proposal for European navies to

within and outside the region. If not addressed

said that for him the question of security in the

coordinate their deployments in order to ensure

properly, this would lead to arms races, rivalry,

Asia-Pacific was not a theoretical issue, but a

as regular and as visible a presence as possible

and unpredictable and disastrous consequences,

concrete concern: 85% of France’s EEZ of 11m

in Asian waters.

he said. Vietnam, however, was determined to

square kilometres was in the Indian and Pacific

Vietnam’s Deputy Minister of National

safeguard national sovereignty first and fore-

oceans; more than 1.6m French citizens lived in

Defence, Senior Lieutenant General Nguyen Chi

most by peaceful means, and would try also to

that zone; and France maintained a permanent

Vinh, emphasised the growing weight of the

have constructive dialogue in accordance with

8,000-strong military presence there. According

Asia-Pacific as a driver of economic progress,

international law.

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JULY 2015

IISS NEWS

FOREIGN POLICY

Senior Lieutenant General Nguyen Chi Vinh, Deputy Minister of National Defense, Vietnam

DEFENCE POLICY

Admiral Sun Jianguo, Deputy Chief, Joint Staff Department, Central Military Commission, China

SHANGRI-LA DIALOGUE

Jean-Yves Le Drian, Minister of Defence, France

PLA delegation leader Admiral Sun Jianguo

To underscore its cooperative approach, Sun

of Arbitration. ‘This is not a violation of interna-

said the world was undergoing historic

said, China was committed to building a ‘new

tional law’, Sun argued: ‘On the contrary, it is the

changes, with multi-polarisation and globali-

type’ of military relationship with the US, fea-

proper exercise of the rights entitled by interna-

sation gaining momentum. In the Asia-Pacific

turing mutual trust. Military relationships with

tional law’. He also claimed that ‘some countries’

region, he said, a multi-faceted, multi-layered

Russia were maintained at a high level; China

implemented international law only when con-

and

cooperation

and Pakistan were enhancing their counter­

venient, for example on freedom of navigation,

framework had been formed. He argued that

terrorism cooperation; China–India relations

while supporting countries confronting China.

Asia-Pacific countries faced common security

were entering a new phase; and China–Japan

Pointedly, Sun declared ‘We do not make trou-

challenges and opportunities, that the security

military relations were being restored. In deal-

ble, but we have no fear of trouble’.

environment was stable in general, but also

ing with regional hot-spots, relevant parties

that military alliances and deployments pre-

should – as Sun put it – ‘stay calm and ease ten-

Pursuing Common Security Objectives

sented security risks to the region. Asia-Pacific

sions through confidence-building measures’.

Opening the fifth plenary session, Canadian

countries represented a community of shared

He added that China had always insisted on

Minister of National Defence Harjit Singh

destiny, he said. To promote common devel-

denuclearising the Korean Peninsula and solv-

Sajjan said that relationships based on princi-

opment, China had put forward the ‘One Belt,

ing the issue through dialogue. But he said

ples served not only the interests of Canada

One Road’ development initiative and set up

it opposed US deployment of the Terminal

but those of the entire world. He stressed that

the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank and

High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile-

Canada was very much a Pacific nation, both

the Silk Road fund.

defence system to South Korea, because this

in terms of its geography and the make-up of

undermined regional stability.

its people. This was the rationale for Canada’s

comprehensive

regional

To safeguard security, China advocated a new security outlook featuring inclusive, shared

On the South China Sea, Sun said that China

commitment to increasing its engagement in

and ‘win-win’ security cooperation. Sun said

and ASEAN were capable of preserving peace

the Asia-Pacific region. In the last several years,

that Chinese President Xi Jinping had proposed

and stability through cooperation. The issue,

Canada had contributed to disaster-relief opera-

that the Asia-Pacific should build a security

he said, had become overheated because of

tions in the Asia-Pacific, notably after Typhoon

governance model that suited the region’s char-

provocations by certain countries for their own

Haiyan in 2013 and the earthquakes in Nepal in

acteristics. The Chinese armed forces, Sun said,

‘selfish’ interests. The arbitration case initiated by

2015. Since 1965, more than 2,500 participants

were committed to world peace and regional

the Philippines under the guise of international

from the region had received training under the

stability, pointing out that China was the largest

law, he argued, denied China’s territorial sover-

Canadian Armed Forces’ Military Training and

contributor of UN peacekeepers among perma-

eignty and maritime rights and interests, and was

Cooperation Programme. Sajjan said disputing

nent Security Council members. Since December

designed to cover up the Philippines’ illegal occu-

parties in the region must resolve their conflicts

2008, he said, Chinese naval task forces had

pation of certain reefs. The arbitration was not

peacefully and in accordance with international

protected over 6,100 ships in the Gulf of Aden,

applicable and sovereignty issues were beyond

law.

half of them foreign. The Chinese military, he

the scope of UNCLOS, he said. The Philippines

Canada strongly condemned the recent

added, was currently undergoing ‘holistic and

had breached its bilateral agreement with China

nuclear and ballistic-missile tests conducted by

revolutionary transformation’, including a cut

and he repeated that China would not recognise

North Korea. He urged that country to honour

of 300,000 in personnel strength.

or honour any award by the Permanent Court

its international obligations. The minister noted

IISS NEWS

JULY 2015 | 7

SHANGRI-LA DIALOGUE

CONFLICT RESOLUTION

CONFLICT PREVENTION

Harjit Singh Sajjan, Minister of National Defence, Canada

Anatoly Antonov, Deputy Minister of Defence, Russia

Dr Ng Eng Hen, Minister for Defence, Singapore

that in the fight against global terrorism, con-

threat posed by returning terrorist fighters.

that earlier festering territorial disputes in the

ventional counter-insurgency methods would

Russia would work with Asia-Pacific coun-

Asia-Pacific have provided the stage on which

not work against groups such as ISIS. As part

tries to implement measures to address the

the strategic rivalry between the US and China

of Canada’s fight against the group, the coun-

challenge. Antonov said that Russia’s air and

is being played out. Echoing Lee’s remarks, Ng

try had tripled its trainers and doubled its

sea-based strikes against ISIS, Jabhat al-Nusra

said that the Sino-American contest would set

intelligence capabilities in Iraq. Sajjan said that

‘and other terrorist groups’ in Syria had been

new rules that would govern inter-state and

Canada had embarked on a long-term, multi-bil-

‘accurate, powerful and effective’. Syria’s army,

geopolitics in Asia for decades to come. Ng

lion dollar initiative to renew its navy. Ottawa’s

with Russia’s assistance, had ‘liberated’ over 500

emphasised the existential threat from global

strategy was to build and maintain an ‘effective

towns. He lauded the February 2016 cessation of

terrorism, with ISIS having replaced Al-Qaeda

fleet’ to ensure the maritime security of Canada’s

hostilities agreement.

and Jemaah Islamiyah. Compared to 2002, how-

coasts. He added that Canada was proud of its

Meanwhile, according to Antonov, Russia

ever, recent attacks or fouled attempts in the

involvement in the ASEAN Regional Forum and

had ‘serious concerns’ about developments

region are consequences of deeper and stronger

the Western Pacific Naval Symposium; Ottawa

on the Korean Peninsula and was fully com-

undercurrents. ISIS has already recruited more

stood ready to contribute to emerging groupings

mitted to the denuclearisation of the DPRK.

sympathisers in ASEAN than Al-Qaeda did over

such as the East Asia Summit and the ASEAN

However, Moscow found it ‘absolutely unac-

the last decade. More than 1000 Southeast Asian

Defence Ministers’ Meeting Plus.

ceptable’ that ‘some countries’ were, he said,

fighters are now in Iraq and Syria. In this con-

Anatoly Antonov, Russia’s Deputy Minister

using the ‘pretext’ of the DPRK’s nuclear and

text, Ng lauded regional attempts to counter the

of Defence, noted that the Asia-Pacific had

missile programme to change the regional mili-

terrorist threat. A recent proposal by Malaysia,

become the driving force of global economic

tary–political balance. Specifically, he referred

Indonesia and the Philippines to implement

development. However, the region still faced

to the ‘new segment’ of the American global

patrols in the Sulu Sea would be useful in deal-

long-standing challenges such as the prolifera-

missile-defence system: while South Korea had

ing with maritime terrorism and smuggling.

tion of weapons of mass destruction and their

a right to cooperate with the US on anti-missile

The ADMM-Plus countries have also conducted

means of delivery, territorial disputes, organised

systems, THAAD should not be allowed to

a joint counterterrorism exercise.

crime, piracy, arms-smuggling, drugs-traffick-

undercut strategic stability.

ing and cyber crime. The arms race in Asia was

In his closing remarks following the fifth

Dr Ng Eng Hen, Singapore’s Minister for

and final plenary session, Chipman noted that

Defence, highlighted how the IISS Shangri-La

the 15th IISS Shangri-La Dialogue had involved

Antonov noted that the global fight against

Dialogue had grown in numbers and stature in

a record 602 delegates. He said that the IISS,

terrorism was top of the agenda at the Fifth

its 15 years. Ng noted that the inaugural Keynote

in partnership with Singapore’s Ministry of

Moscow Conference on International Security

Address by Lee Kuan Yew at the first IISS

Defence, would ‘work exhaustively’ to ensure

in April. He stressed that it was high time to

Shangri-La Dialogue still has resonance today.

that the Shangri-La Dialogue remained ‘the

‘stop playing with terrorists.’ The international

In 2002, Lee highlighted two security challenges

premier intergovernmental forum for the dis-

community should unite in the fight against

that would still confront the Asia-Pacific in the

cussion of Asia-Pacific security’.

terrorism. Antonov said that Russia shared

years to come – global terrorism and the evolu-

the concerns of Asia-Pacific countries over the

tion of the Sino-American relationship. Ng said

also a particular concern.

8

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JULY 2015

The 16th IISS Shangri-La Dialogue will be held in Singapore from 2–4 June 2017.

IISS NEWS

NON-PROLIFERATION

DEFENCE TECHNOLOGY

NORTH KOREA

SHANGRI-LA DIALOGUE

Special Session 1: CONTAINING THE NORTH KOREAN THREAT According to Japan’s Deputy Foreign Minister

better, and negotiations – however vexatious

carrot would need to be held in balance when

Shinsuke Sugiyama, North Korea’s increasing

– provided the only viable route to a modi-

addressing Pyongyang. Subsequent discus-

bellicosity and resort to nuclear and missile

cum of stability on the Korean Peninsula.

sion in the session revealed the often fraught

tests had animated a new intensity in practical

Aidan Foster-Carter from Leeds University

dilemmas being arbitrated in various capitals

and policy coordination between the US and

pointed to the divergent assessments of

on the way to proceed within established

its allies, the ROK and Japan. But this had not

China and Russia on the one hand, and those

political and diplomatic tolerances. How, for

yielded notable effects on Pyongyang’s wors-

of Japan, the US and the ROK on the other,

example, could the US fashion a desirable

ening behaviour. China’s role was important

about the balance of risks to be borne and the

strategy to in some way freeze North Korea’s

but ambiguous. Under these circumstances,

threats to be managed. As a matter of diplo-

nuclear capabilities without, in appear-

there was little hope for any transformation of

matic life, therefore, and as a requirement of

ance or actuality, extending recognition of

the situation. Yoon Soon Gu, Director-General

an effective long-term strategy, both stick and

Pyongyang’s nuclear status?

of the International Policy Bureau of South Korea’s Ministry of National Defense, warned against Pyongyang’s episodic but, he felt, insincere calls for talks. They were intended simply to relax pressure on the North Korean regime, whereas the task should be to heighten the pain of sanctions in order to impose a higher price for misbehaviour and provocation.

Colonel Lu Yin of China’s National Defense University expressed a different view: there was little evidence that sanctions would alter North Korea’s calculus for the

Sculpture in Pyongyang, North Korea (Flickr/Stefan Krasowski)

Special Session 2: MILITARY CAPABILITY DEVELOPMENT: NEW TECHNOLOGIES, LIMITED BUDGETS AND HARD CHOICES Given the subject matter, it was to be hoped the special session on trying to square the circle of new defence technologies and constrained funding would prove insightful and lively. The speakers more than rose to the challenge. Philippe Errera from France’s defence ministry summed up the perennial challenge facing all those in the defence community thus: ‘There are things we will never see in our lifetime: a sufficient defence budget and a cure for the common cold’. Singapore’s

Royal Australian Air Force F-35A Lightning II (USAF/Staci Miller)

Chief of Defence Force, Major General Perry Lim, said that irrespective of the benefit that

‘upgrading as much as possible’ was one pal-

could offer flexibility, platform versatility

the nation’s military had gained from ‘steady

liative option.

and interoperability as tools for addressing

and constant investment’, he expected defence

China’s military reform process, initiated in

the demands of capability development and

expenditure would ‘come under pressure’ as

2015, was ‘a direct response to the challenges

funding constraints. With regard to platform

competition from other sectors for govern-

facing the military establishment’, Major

versatility, Hewson used the company’s C-130

ment funds grew in the future. The need to

General (Retd) Gong Xianfu, Vice-Chairman of

Hercules aircraft as an example. Originally

accommodate the cost of equipment moderni-

the China Institute for International Strategic

designed as a tactical airlifter, the aircraft has

sation while funding immediate operational

Studies, told delegates.

now been in service for 60 years in some 70 of

variants for diverse roles. Hewson and Errera

challenge. Lim cautioned there was ‘no silver

upgrades,

Chairman,

also emphasised the value of defence coop-

bullet’ in relieving budgetary pressure or the

President and Chief Executive Officer of

eration at both the industrial and government

demands of re-equipment, but suggested that

Lockheed Martin, suggested that industry

levels.

demands would, in his view, compound the

IISS NEWS

Complementing Marillyn

Lim’s

advocacy

Hewson,

JULY 2015 | 9

SHANGRI-LA DIALOGUE

REFUGEES

HUMAN RIGHTS

ISLAMIC STATE

TERRORISM AND SECURITY

Special Session 3: THE SECURITY CHALLENGES OF IRREGULAR MIGRATION The session provided a clear and collec-

and destination countries; the transnational

– that had since halted the flow of irregular

tive exposition of the short-, medium- and

organised criminal networks that profit from

migrants arriving by sea. Panellists typified

long-term security challenges arising from

people-trafficking; and linkages with the

irregular migration as an industry of organised

irregular mass migration. With an estimated

movement of foreign fighters, which compli-

criminal trafficking networks, and advocated

60 million displaced persons, the world is

cate national responses.

international law-enforcement efforts to break

currently undergoing the largest displace-

Discussions focused on the extent to which

this business model. However, it remained

ment of people since the Second World War.

irregular migration should be framed in

to be seen how sustainable such an approach

Panellists described the broad geopolitical

security or humanitarian terms, and whether

would be against a problem that was largely

ramifications in terms of: the root causes of

policy responses should, in the words of

driven by pressures beyond the reach of bor-

migration flows; the strains migration places

China’s Senior Colonel Xu Qiyu, ‘be reactive or

der-control and law-enforcement agencies.

on political and social cohesion in transit

proactive’. Geography played a major role in

Other panellists stressed that a refugee

shaping policy responses.

policy that worked in the long-term would

Indonesia, due to its prox-

not just make destination countries less acces-

imity to mainland Southeast

sible, but would also address the root causes

Asia, had long served as a

of migrant flows. The EU had to take stock

transit country for irregular

of the fact that human displacement usually

migrants arriving by sea.

resulted from conflict or poor governance.

By contrast, Australia had

China had become more actively engaged

capitalised on its relative

in conflict countries through peacekeeping

geographic isolation with a

engagements. All agreed that a combination of

series of controversial poli-

immediate security responses would need to

cies – including the use of

be reinforced by longer-term steps to manage

offshore processing centres

migration in all its aspects.

Refugee camp in Rakhine State, Myanmar (UK FCO)

Special Session 4: ENHANCING COOPERATION AGAINST JIHADI TERRORISM IN ASIA The fourth special session focused on the

10

Significant

numbers

of

challenges both of building a better shared

Malaysians and Indonesians

understanding of the threat from jihadi ter-

were travelling to fight in

rorism in Asia and strengthening effective

Syria

intra-state cooperation to combat it. There

groups. Governments were

was much discussion of the distinctive

still not as effective as they

characteristics of regional jihadi and other

should be against facilita-

radical extremist movements. Some were of

tion networks. Ideology itself

long standing – Abu Sayyaf in the Philippines

could give a new impetus to

or Jemaah Islamiyah in Indonesia, for example.

groups such as Abu Sayyaf,

It was important to try to distinguish between

whose strength had been

criminality disguised as a sacralised ideol-

degraded recently. Returnees

needed to be done in all these areas. Terrorism

ogy and the sort of revolutionary insurgent

would also have an energising effect. And ISIS

was a threat vector: the underlying challenge

violence associated with groups of Middle

would be looking for new areas into which to

was essentially about governance, the integ-

Eastern origin such as Al-Qaeda or ISIS. This

expand as it lost territory and personnel in its

rity of state institutions and education. In the

in turn could lead to a more effective diagnosis

Middle East and North African heartlands.

Middle East heartland, stabilisation and recon-

with

ISIS-affiliated

Indonesian armoured vehicles following the bombing in Jakarta, January 2016 (Flickr/Tommy Wahyu Utomo)

of the remedies. This was not straightforward.

Delegates heard that regional states had to

struction lagged badly. And the ideological

The sort of communal and sectarian divisions

guard against over-militarising their response.

deformations that led to radicalisation con-

characteristic of Middle East conflicts were

There had been progress on building struc-

tinued to feed on communal grievances. The

generally not present in Southeast Asia. And

tures for greater regional intelligence-sharing

Islamic Alliance against Terrorism launched

ISIS had not yet proclaimed a wilayah (prov-

and counterterrorism cooperation, with the

in Riyadh, in which Malaysia was already

ince) in the region yet. But the ideological

creation of a Southeast Asian counterterrorism

playing a role, was a recognition that this was

connections were becoming more complex,

centre in Kuala Lumpur and progress with

an issue that crossed national and regional

particularly through social media and secure

de-radicalisation programmes, digital mes-

boundaries and would require a more struc-

online communications.

saging and new legal frameworks. But more

tured, long-term global response.

|

JULY 2015

IISS NEWS

INTERNATIONAL LAW

CYBER SECURITY

ASIA-PACIFIC

SOUTH CHINA SEA

SHANGRI-LA DIALOGUE

Special Session 5: MANAGING SOUTH CHINA SEA TENSIONS the

with maritime dispute settlement, while the

considered

speaker from Singapore offered useful insights

the various types of

into the legal complexities of UNLCOS, as well

disputes

provoking

as the logic behind UN freedom of navigation

tensions in the South

operations in the South China Sea. All dele-

China Sea: disputes

gates were clear that governments would need

over sovereignty of the

to manage tensions actively, with one del-

land features them-

egate suggesting that the Code for Unplanned

selves, over the extent

Encounters at Sea, signed in 2014, could help-

of the maritime zones

fully be extended to cover coast guards as well

generated by individ-

as navies.

Speakers session

in

ual land features, and

The significance of the forthcoming ruling

over what activities,

of the Permanent Court of Arbitration on the

With developments in the South China Sea

in particular military activities, were permit-

case brought to it by the Philippines against

already having been raised as part of discus-

ted under UNCLOS within these zones. The

China’s maritime claims was also considered,

sions in all three of the preceding plenary

ongoing development, construction and mili-

along with likely reactions by key protago-

sessions, this session offered delegates a

tarisation of certain land features subject to

nists, including the potential for a renewed

chance to consider in more detail recent events

sovereignty disputes within the South China

round of bilateral negotiations. One delegate

in the South China Sea. It also took up the

Sea was noted with concern by delegates.

noted that if maritime claims could be staked

USS John C. Stennis (US Navy/Kenneth Rodriguez Santiago)

challenge of how to encourage or even insti-

Presentations were made on their respec-

on the basis of historical rights, then India

tutionalise the strategic restraint that would

tive national approaches by speakers from

could claim a ‘50-dash line’ inherited from the

be required in order to prevent tensions

Vietnam and China. A speaker from the EU

British Empire stretching from the Red Sea to

there from further escalating.

outlined its interests and recent experiences

the Strait of Malacca.

Special Session 6: IDENTIFYING COMMON SECURITY INTERESTS IN THE CYBER-DOMAIN high-

intervene, and coerce behaviour, at a level

lighted aspects of their

below the threshold of armed conflict. Kanuck

countries’

responses

considered common interests and cyber weap-

designed both to enable

ons. The dual-use nature of information and

greater, and safer, access

communications technologies, he said, made

to cyberspace and also

it nearly impossible to identify cyber weap-

to tackle growing cyber

ons. It was better instead to consider their

threats

national

effects on civilians. This could then lead to a

and multilateral levels.

common interest in ‘Geneva law’ – protecting

Singapore

work-

civilians and civilian infrastructure rather than

ing on a national cyber

looking to prohibit the proliferation or use of

strategy,

India

these capabilities. Questions followed on cyber

Panellists highlighted national, bilateral and

had established a new post of cyber-security

sovereignty and whether cyberspace was ‘bor-

multilateral policy responses designed to

coordinator. Meanwhile China was keen, said

derless’; proportionality in cyber responses;

improve cyber security. The issue was, as

Qing Yu from its Cyberspace Administration,

and cyber relations between the US and China,

former US National Intelligence Officer for

to secure the rights of its ‘netizens’, and was

and their 2015 bilateral agreement.

Cyber Issues Sean Kanuck observed, part of

willing to fund greater global access to the

Asked about how cooperation could

every security discussion at the IISS Shangri-La

internet. However, cyber sovereignty was

improve, Kanuck said there was a need first to

Dialogue. And with ‘all states’, according to

important. China was drafting an information

find strategic common ground. Rules associ-

panellist David Koh from Singapore’s Cyber

security law.

ated with outer space, he said, grew because

Panellists

Workers testing computer hard drives in a factory in China (Robert Scoble)

on was

while

Security Agency, ‘linked by supra-national

On the basis of his own experience, Kanuck

during the Cold War states with a space-launch

critical information infrastructures’, there was

discussed cyber-threat analysis. Many recent

capability saw a strategic benefit in satellite

an ‘urgent need’, Koh said, to work to develop

attacks were on the private sector. Non-lethal

overflight: ‘start with common strategic inter-

platforms where cyber challenges, and ‘rules

and ‘reversible’ actions were becoming more

est, and you might find common ground for

of the road’, could be discussed.

appealing and some actors now sought to

future laws or norms.’

IISS NEWS

JULY 2015 | 11

SHANGRI-LA DIALOGUE

ASIA-PACIFIC

FOREIGN POLICY

DEFENCE POLICY

IISS Shangri-La Dialogue Southeast Asian Young Leaders’ Programme The 15th anniversary of the IISS Shangri-la Dialogue witnessed the launch of a groundbreaking new IISS initiative, the Southeast Asian Young Leaders’ Programme (SEAYLP). With the generous support of the Singapore Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the US Embassy and British High Commission in Singapore, the Norwegian Embassy in Jakarta and OUE Limited, 42 young leaders from ten Southeast Asian countries were invited to the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue this year. Highlights of the programme’s launch included a SEAYLP lunch attended by distinguished speakers

Launch of the Young Leaders’ Programme

including Singapore’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Dr Vivian Balakrishnan and Commander of US Pacific Command Admiral Harry Harris, as well

backgrounds in a high-level debate on the complex and rapidly evolving

as introductions to US Secretary of Defense Dr Ashton Carter and British

strategic challenges faced by Southeast Asia and the wider Asia-Pacific

Defence Secretary Michael Fallon. The programme has been integrated

region. The young delegates play a full part in the Dialogue’s plenary

into the summit agenda and represents an important new element of the

and special sessions, and join dinners and other social events which pro-

IISS Shangri-La Dialogue.

vide important opportunities for informal exchanges with global decision

The SEAYLP brings younger Southeast Asian thinkers into the main-

makers. The programme is intended to strengthen the contribution of a

stream of the regional strategic debate by inviting them to be delegates

younger generation of Southeast Asian strategists to the formulation of

at the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue. The aim of the programme is to engage

effective security policy in their countries and the Asia-Pacific region.

young people from business, government, law, journalism and academic

Debrief on IISS Shangri-La Dialogue 2016

Read more about the SEAYLP.

much concern in the region and internationally. A second major theme, Huxley explained, was the nature of the regional security order, in terms of the structure of relations among regional states, as well as with the region’s pre-eminent strategic actor, the United States. Huxley also mentioned a sig-

On 8 June, Dr Tim Huxley, Executive Director of IISS–Asia, provided a

nificant subsidiary focus on Korean Peninsula security, and the emphasis

debrief of the 15th IISS Shangri-La Dialogue, an annual meeting of Asia-

placed by some Southeast Asian ministers on the challenges of rising jihadi

Pacific defence ministers and Asia’s premier defence summit. He considered

terrorism, before responding to a range of questions posed by IISS members.

the most prevalent themes of this year’s Dialogue, highlighting the impor-

The webinar was chaired by Adam Ward, Director of Studies at the IISS.

tant focus on China’s behaviour in the South China Sea, which has caused

Asia-Pacific Regional Security Assessment 2016: Key Developments and Trends

Watch the webinar.

ing from ‘Evolving American Views of China’ and ‘India and Asia-Pacific Security’ to ‘The Militarisation of the South China Sea’, ‘North Korea’s Threat to Regional Security’ and ‘The Islamic State and Southeast

On 3 June, shortly before the 15th IISS Shangri-La Dialogue commenced,

Asia’. Huxley

Dr Tim Huxley, Executive Director of IISS–Asia, chaired a press launch of

these themes had all emerged from

the Asia-Pacific Regional Security Assessment 2016 at the Shangri-La Hotel in

recent Shangri-La Dialogues and

Singapore. This Strategic Dossier, now the third in a series that was first

IISS Fullerton Forum meetings. The

published in 2014, forms part of the Institute’s programme of publications

content of the volume, he said, high-

accompanying the Shangri-La Dialogue, which each year also includes two

lighted the fact that there remained

Adelphi books on Asian security themes. Joining Huxley on the panel for the

substantial areas where regional

launch was co-editor and Shangri-La Dialogue Senior Fellow for Asia-Pacific

states could find common ground

Security Dr William Choong, IISS Director of Studies Adam Ward, and con-

for security collaboration. There was

tributing authors Nick Childs, Aidan Foster-Carter and Dr Carlyle Thayer.

a wide range of questions from the audience, which was largely composed

In his introductory comments, Huxley outlined the main findings of the Regional Security Assessment’s 13 chapters, which covered key topics rang-

12

|

JULY 2015

emphasised

that

of press and other delegates participating in the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue.

Watch the launch.

IISS NEWS

EXPERTS

CHINA

GLOBAL POLITICS

EUROPEAN UNION

ASIA-PACIFIC SECURITY

A Road Map to Strategic Relevance: EU Security Policy Options in Southeast Asia In June 2016 the IISS published a report entitled A Road Map to Strategic Relevance: EU Security-Policy Options in Southeast Asia, written by IISS Consulting Senior Fellow for Geopolitics and Strategy Sarah Raine. The report, sponsored by the German foreign office, considers how the EU and its member states might be able to reap more strategic effect from the

ASEAN Regional Forum Disaster Relief Exercise 2013, Cha-Am, Thailand, May 2013 (최광모)

increased attention they have recently been paying to Southeast Asia, in particular with regard to the region’s security affairs. In the report, a strat-

External Action Service (EEAS). Deputy Secretary General of the EEAS,

egy was recommended based around the mantra of ‘target, promote and

Helga Schmid, and German State Secretary Markus Ederer offered com-

sustain’. Whilst some of the limitations surrounding EU engagement in

mentary on the report at this event. An IISS–Asia launch also took place

defence and security policy were briefly discussed, the report also offered

on 3 June, shortly before the opening of the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue, with

new policy proposals designed to develop an EU track record of substan-

comments on this occasion being offered by the Asia-Pacific Director of

tive engagement in Southeast Asian security affairs.

the German foreign office Norbert Riedel and Germany’s Ambassador to

The report was launched by Sarah Raine and IISS Director of Studies Adam Ward at an event in Brussels on 30 May 2016, hosted by the EU

Singapore Michael Witter.

Watch author Sarah Raine discuss the report’s findings.

Perspectives on the South China Sea On 23 May, Liu Xiaoming, Chinese Ambassador to the United Kingdom, spoke at Arundel House about China’s position on the South China Sea. The Permanent Court of Arbitration is expected to release its ruling on the case that the Philippines brought against China on 12 July, and as such the event formed a timely opportunity for Liu to explain China’s perspective on the ongoing dispute.

Liu’s speech recounted the historical basis underpinning China’s island and maritime claims in the South China Sea. According to China, the pres-

Liu Xiaoming, Chinese Ambassador to the United Kingdom

ent dispute started in the 1970s, as countries in the region began pursuing access to natural resources. The ambassador confirmed that China would

regional disputes should be solved by bilateral negotiations. The discus-

not accept any ruling made by the arbitration panel, a position that the

sion was chaired by Nigel Inkster, Director of Future Conflict and Cyber

country has held since the Philippines initiated the process. China posits

Security at the IISS.

that the arbitration process was illegally convened and maintains that

Watch the event.

Post-Election Myanmar: Context, Opportunities and Challenges for Business

days in office, but areas requiring urgent policy attention included road and energy infrastructure, land tenure reform, urban planning, as well as building a reliable banking industry to sustain and grow agricultural output – still the agrarian country’s largest sector.

Suu Kyi would have unprecedented access to overseas development aid and investment for these priority areas. However, balancing the interests of ASEAN, China, Japan and the West would be the challenge. One case in

Vicky Bowman, former UK Ambassador to Myanmar (2003–06) and

point would be the fate of the suspended Mytisone Dam project – a US$3.6

the Director of the Myanmar Centre for Responsible Business, spoke at

billion investment led by the China Power Investment Corporation. Above

Arundel House on the opportunities and challenges for business following

all, clear policy and regulatory frameworks from a still-inexperienced

the first democratic transfer of power in Myanmar since 1960. The country

government would decide how and to what extent business activity could

would be one of the fastest-growing economies globally in 2016 – albeit

be made to work for the long-term interests of the country. The event was

starting from a low base. The government – led by State Counsellor Aung

chaired by Hervé Lemahieu, Research Associate for Political Economy and

San Suu Kyi – had yet to articulate fully its economic agenda after 100

Security.

IISS NEWS

JULY 2015 | 13

SOUTH ASIA

PAKISTAN

NUCLEAR

INDIA

GULF STATES

EXPERTS

Pakistan: A Personal Perspective During an address at Arundel House on 15 June, IISS Consulting Senior Fellow and former British High Commissioner to Pakistan (2014–16), Philip Barton explained that 2015 had been the best year for Pakistan in a long time. Democracy was deepening, the security situation was improving and the economy was growing. This good news was Pakistan’s to tell, said Barton, to change outdated perceptions of its future.

Barton stated that Pakistani democracy had been strengthened by the political crisis of 2014; nonetheless, he conceded there were improvements to be made before the 2018 elections. Goodwill persisted between Pakistan and both Iran and Afghanistan, whilst Pakistan and India both

Philip Barton, IISS Consulting Senior Fellow and Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, IISS Senior Fellow for South Asia

wanted to find a way back into dialogue. Relations with the US were likely to improve and China was committed to Pakistan’s stability through the

the devolution of power to the provincial level. Not doing so would risk

China–Pakistan Economic Corridor. Barton explained that the country

holding Pakistan back in the future. The meeting was chaired by Rahul

had an opportunity to start tackling its four biggest, interlinked long-term

Roy-Chaudhury, IISS Senior Fellow for South Asia.

challenges: demographics; climate change; economic development; and

Listen to the event.

The Nuclear Suppliers Group Membership Issue and Nuclear Diplomacy: A Pakistani Perspective It is in the interests of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), as much as anyone concerned about the strategic stability of South Asia, to adopt an objective and non-discriminatory criteria-based approach while con-

Chashma Nuclear Power Plant (Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission)

sidering applications for membership of the NSG – a group of advanced countries aiming to ensure that trade in nuclear technology for peaceful

at the IISS, Group Captain Qutab suggested that criteria-based admission

purposes does not lead to nuclear-weapons proliferation. This was a key

of India and Pakistan into the NSG would provide a way of universalis-

policy message at a meeting convened by the IISS at Arundel House on

ing the non-proliferation regime to de facto nuclear-weapons states. For

16 June with Group Captain Waseem Qutab, Visiting Research Fellow for

Qutab, the NSG appeared to be undergoing a ‘rethink’. The meeting was

South Asia (Strategic Affairs) and Senior Deputy Director at Pakistan’s

chaired by Antoine Levesques, IISS Research Associate for South Asia.

Strategic Plans Division. In remarks inaugurating his Visiting Fellowship

Read more about the event.

South Asia’s Emerging Economic and Security Relations with Saudi Arabia, the Gulf and Iran Both India and Pakistan are deepening and diversifying their ties in the Gulf region amidst competitive bilateral relations, while balancing their ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran, noted IISS Senior Fellow for South

Pakistan Air Force F-16s (USAF/Daniel Phelps)

Asia, Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, and IISS Consulting Senior Fellow and former British High Commissioner to Pakistan, Philip Barton, at an IISS

Qatar seek to target Pakistan. India’s May 2016 agreement with Iran and

corporate members’ meeting on 28 June.

Afghanistan on the Iranian port of Chabahar seeks to bypass Pakistan’s

With Pakistan seeking a leadership role in the Islamic world, Saudi

denial (to India) of the land route access to Afghanistan and counter

Arabia remains its closest Gulf ally, where more than 1,000 Pakistani

China’s construction of port facilities at Gwadar, lying 70 nautical miles

military personnel are engaged in training. India’s new counterterrorism

eastward.

cooperation pledges with the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and

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Read more about the event.

IISS NEWS

EXPERTS

DEVELOPMENT

BRAZIL

EMERGING NATIONS

SECURITY AND DEVELOPMENT

The Aftermath of Impeachment in Brazil: Changes amid Political Crisis and the Fight against Corruption After more than 20 years of stability, Brazilian politics quickly stumbled into a crisis after congress voted in May to start impeachment procedures against President Dilma Rousseff. On 19 May, during the first week of the interim government, IISS Research Associate for Security and Development Antônio Sampaio presented in a webinar the significant

Protestors in São Paulo, March 2016 (Marcelo Valente)

shifts in policy priorities and Brazil’s progress in fighting corruption – one of the main drivers of the impeachment process.

of Petrobras, the state oil company. He laid out the significant challenges

After outlining how corruption had been a longstanding feature of

facing the interim president, Michel Temer: first among them was to re-

Brazilian politics, Sampaio emphasised that the current anti-corruption

establish popular trust in the national political system while attempting

investigation, nicknamed Operation Car Wash (Lava Jato), was the larg-

to reverse an economic downturn. The webinar was chaired by Virginia

est in the country’s history and had uncovered a widespread bribery

Comolli, Research Fellow for Security and Development at the IISS.

scheme functioning at the highest levels of the national leadership and

Watch the webinar.

The Human and Socio-economic Cost of Conflict On 13 June, Senior Fellow for Security and Development Virginia Comolli hosted a discussion meeting at Arundel House with Seema Biswas, General Surgeon at the Israeli Ziv Medical Centre and Editor-in-Chief at BMJ Case Reports, and Dr Anke Hoeffler, Research Officer at the Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) at the University of Oxford.

The panel aimed to shed light on aspects of conflict that are less commonly discussed, in particular the impact on health and the economy.

Medical staff at a hospital in Aleppo, Syria (YouTube)

Conflict was described as a key determinant of health owing to the loss of human rights, the breaches of medical neutrality and the constant expo-

level registered at the outset of the war. These reflections, coupled with

sure to life-threatening situations that it brought about. Similarly, it was

the recognition that 40% of conflicts never truly end, made for a sombre

equated to ‘economic suicide’: studies indicated that, on average, it took 21

exchange.

years after the end of a conflict for the economy to be restored to the same

Listen to the event.

PUBLICATIONS

New Adelphi Book

corporations are good or bad for peaceful devel-

The analysis and

opment, it leaves business-related conflicts in

conclusions of this

Adelphi 459

fragile states to multiply and fester. Surveying a

Adelphi book will

Business and Conflict in Fragile States

new strategic landscape of business and conflict,

interest

Achim Wennmann and Brian Ganson

Brian Ganson and Achim Wennmann conclude

makers, business

Large-scale investments in fragile states – in

that neither company shareholders nor advo-

leaders and com-

Latin America, Africa, the former Soviet Union

cates for peaceful development need, or should,

munity advocates

and Asia – become magnets for conflict, which

accept the growing cost of business-related

alike – all those

undermines business, development and security.

conflict in fragile states. Drawing on decades of

hoping to mitigate

International policy responds with regulation,

experience from mainstream conflict-prevention

today’s

conflicts

state-building and institutional reform, with

and violence-reduction efforts, as well as prom-

while

helping

poor and often perverse results. Caught up in

ising company practice, they show that even

to reduce fragil-

old ways of thinking about conflict and fragility,

acute conflict is manageable when dealt with

ity and build a firmer foundation for inclusive

and an age-old fight over whether multinational

pragmatically, locally and on its own terms.

development.

IISS NEWS

policy-

JULY 2015 | 15

IISS–AMERICAS

AEROSPACE

ISRAEL & PALESTINE

UNITED STATES

Defence Budgeting and National Security: A Conversation with Secretary of the Air Force Deborah Lee James

CHINA

EXPERTS

Opening up to Cuba: Lessons from Canada

Cuban President Raúl Castro and US President Barack Obama during the Summit of the Americas in Panama, April 2015 (White House/Pete Souza) Design concept of B-21 long-range strike bomber (USAF)

On 24 May, the Washington DC office officially launched its rebranding as IISS–Americas. Since its inception in 2001, the Washington office had

On 13 June, IISS–Americas hosted Secretary of the Air Force Deborah Lee

been known as IISS–US. This event, chaired by Executive Director of IISS–

James as part of its Policy Makers Series. Secretary James has served as the

Americas Mark Fitzpatrick, featured Mark Entwistle, former Ambassador

23rd Secretary of the Air Force since 2013, overseeing the affairs of the

of Canada to Cuba and current Managing Director of Acasta Capital. On

Department of the Air Force and its annual budget. This event, chaired by

17 December, 2014, the United States and Cuba began normalising rela-

IISS–Americas Executive Director Mark Fitzpatrick, examined the major

tions, sparking renewed interest among Americans in engaging with

threats facing the United States, including those from Russia, China, Iran,

Cuba. Ambassador Entwistle described Cuba as a unique society, rich in

North Korea and the Islamic State, as well as the resources needed for the

human capital with great economic potential. He cautioned Americans,

Air Force to confront these challenges. Secretary James pointed out that

however, not to expect a ‘big bang’ change in the Cuban economy or

the US Air Force was at its smallest size since its founding as a separate

politics. Moreover, he said the continued US trade embargo was still sig-

force, and its fleet of planes was on average 28 years old. She discussed

nificantly limiting the development of relations between the two countries.

her commitment to reversing this trend and working to ensure the Air

Entwistle counselled that engagement must be strategic, with a long-term

Force had the resources to modernise and was ready to manage increasing

horizon, as the Cuban leadership was impervious to external pressure

global insecurity. She also spoke passionately about her priority of taking

and would make its assessments and decisions at its own pace. For now,

care of the 660,000 people in the Air Force, including protecting them from

though, Entwistle assessed that the presidents of both the US and Cuba

sexual harassment.

were committed to the continued improvement of relations.

Watch the video.

Watch the event.

The Inaugural IISS Robert F. Ellsworth Lecture IISS–Americas hosted the inaugural Robert F. Ellsworth Lecture on 9 May, featuring Admiral William J. Fallon (Retd). Fallon’s remarks focused on American national security and the related political process. Examining global concerns regarding Russia, China, Iran, North Korea and the Islamic State, he noted that while Russia, China, and Iran had each been ‘a world power at one or more times in its history’, only China had the attributes to

Tianjin, China (Yang Aijun/World Bank)

regain that status. Thus, he said it was important for the US to find agreement with China on areas of mutual interest. In addressing the issue of

cal, economic, security and social policies’. If the US could achieve this,

terrorism, Admiral Fallon expressed concern with ‘domestic behavioural

he opined, it would be more effective in addressing international security

weakness’. He argued that America needed ‘good governing leadership,

challenges.

[and must be] able to craft, articulate and enact broad, long term politi-

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Read Admiral Fallon’s speech.

IISS NEWS

CUBA

EXPERTS

CANADA

IISS–AMERICAS

Our Separate Ways: The Struggle for the Future of the US–Israel Alliance On 14 June and 21 June, IISS–Americas hosted book launches in New York and Washington DC respectively of Our Separate Ways: The Struggle for the Future of the US–Israel Alliance, with authors Dana Allin, Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy and Transatlantic Affairs at the IISS, and Steven Simon, former Senior Director for Middle Eastern and North African Affairs at the National Security Council. Both launches were chaired by Mark Fitzpatrick, Executive

President Obama in Jerusalem, March 2013 (White House/Chuck Kennedy)

Director of IISS–Americas. Allin and Simon discussed how cultural and strategic differences between the US and Israel are

the relationship did indeed falter, the question arose as to whether Israel

driving the countries apart. In order to save the relationship, the authors

would reach out to another country for support and protection, such as

proposed that the two countries formalise their alliance with a treaty, tied

Russia. The speculative answer was that an alliance with the US was much

to Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank. Making this trade-off sufficiently

more appealing than any other possibility.

attractive would require resourceful diplomacy, they said. In the event that

Watch the Washington DC launch.

IISS–Americas The IISS office in Washington DC, which has been known as IISS–US since its inception in 2001, has been rebranded as IISS–Americas. This reflects the broader responsibilities of the office to represent the Institute and to engage with policymaking communities, organisations and corporations throughout North and South America.

EXPERTS

CHINA

CYBER SECURITY

FUTURE CONFLICT AND CYBER SECURITY

Adelphi Launch: China’s Cyber Power Launched at Arundel House on 29 June, China’s Cyber Power, the latest Adelphi book authored by Nigel Inkster, was written during a period in which China’s cyber-espionage activities were under intense international scrutiny, and was published shortly after a new report revealed a drop in China’s cyber intrusions since the latter part of 2015.

Inkster, IISS’s Director of Future Conflict and Cyber Security, explained

Chinese military

that China’s rapid evolution as a major global cyber power had to be seen in the wider context of its long struggle to achieve modernity and

companies but had not – and would not – cease. China’s military were

cultural self-respect. China’s leadership saw cyber capabilities as critical

pursuing digitalisation as part of extensive military reforms designed to

to enabling the next phase of China’s economic and social development,

put China on a par with the US.

military and intelligence capabilities, and foreign policy. At the same time,

China had become increasingly extroverted in promoting its own

they had also invested heavily in capabilities to control online activity, an

vision of global cyber governance and security, which enjoyed growing

approach justified under the rubric of cyber sovereignty.

traction in the developing world. China’s cyber policies, underpinned by

China’s intelligence community had successfully exploited cyber capa-

its own values system, amounted to a massive global experiment in which

bilities inter alia to conduct industrial espionage that had until recently

the Western liberal democracies served as the control group. The launch

been a major focus of Western media attention. This activity had declined

was chaired by Adam Ward, IISS Director of Studies.

since the end of 2015 following US threats of legal action against Chinese

IISS NEWS

Watch the launch.

JULY 2015 | 17

IISS–MIDDLE EAST

CYBER SECURITY

AFGHANISTAN

The Jihadis’ Cyber Capacity and Aspiration

GEO-ECONOMICS AND STRATEGY

EXPERTS

Drugs and Conflict Prevention in Afghanistan

A field in Afghanistan (Dustin D. March/USMC)

On 15 May, Sir John Jenkins, Executive Director of IISS–Middle East, chaired a lecture delivered by Dr Aaron Brantly, a Cyber Fellow at The

On 26 May, IISS–Middle East hosted a high-level workshop entitled ‘Drugs

United States Military Academy, about the cyber capacity and aspira-

and Conflict Prevention in Afghanistan’, organised by the IISS Security

tions of jihadis. Brantly discussed the findings of a study of jihadi forums

and Development Programme. This off-the-record event brought together

concerned with how chat room participants navigate digital operational

officials, representatives of international organisations and experts from

security. He highlighted that tools used by some jihadis were ones that

Afghanistan and other relevant countries to reflect on the UN General

were developed with the original intention to safeguard individuals

Assembly Special Session (UNGASS 2016) deliberations on drugs, and

working under the threat of states, to provide added security for their

their implications for Afghanistan.

operations. These same tools, often funded in part by the US Government,

Participants discussed the full impact of the drugs trade on Afghanistan

NGOs, corporations, and others, were expressly being used for illicit pur-

as it pertains to conflict, socio-economic development, public health, gov-

poses. The discussion that followed Brantly’s presentation of the paper’s

ernance and corruption. Other themes included assessing the effectiveness

findings included questions concerning the motivations underpinning

of counter-narcotics initiatives and why they had produced limited results,

jihadism, the jihadis’ cyber capability compared to other non-state actors,

and how the illicit economy was likely to influence future development

and ways to counter the jihadi threat.

plans.

The Changing Geo-economics of the Gulf and Asia On 25 May, the IISS Geo-economics and Strategy Programme organised the IISS Bahrain–India Forum in New Delhi, which included two days of panel discussions on the subject of ‘The Changing Geo-economics of the Gulf and Asia’.

The forum was attended by government and business leaders from both Bahrain and India, including Zayed Al Zayani, the Bahraini Minister of Industry, Commerce and Tourism. Representing India were Nirmala

Dr Sanjaya Baru, IISS Consulting Senior Fellow for India, addresses the forum

Sitharaman, Minister of State for the Ministry of Commerce & Industry and Minister of State for Finance and Corporate Affairs, and Jayant Sinha,

local priorities and geo-economic strategies, finding business opportuni-

Minister of State for Finance.

ties despite regional challenges, and achieving sustainable local growth

Participants discussed issues of economic diversification, balancing

during global economic slowdowns.

PUBLICATIONS

Survival: Global Politics and Strategy In the June–July 2016 issue of Survival, Lawrence

of North Korea; Sarah Percy and Ryan D. Martinson

Freedman, François Heisbourg, Nigel Inkster, Matthew

discuss crime and provocation at sea; Brian G. Carlson

Harries and Erik Jones debate Brexit; Lanxin Xiang and

assesses the prospects for a China–Russia alliance; Pierre

Christian Dargnat analyse Xi Jinping’s dreams of China’s

Hassner, Russell Crandall and Erik Jones contribute book

future; Aaron Arnold warns of the costs of financial sanc-

reviews; and Faisal Hamid explores Bangladesh’s social

tions; Andrea Berger and Denny Roy address the problem

strife.

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IISS NEWS

EXPERTS

CHINA

NON-PROLIFERATION

Lessons Learned from the Work of the UN Panel of Experts on Iran

IRAN

NON-PROLIFERATION AND NUCLEAR POLICY

Strategic Nuclear Issues in East Asia: Security, Energy and Fuel Cycle Choices

IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano visits the construction site of the Chinese Centre of Excellence for Nuclear Security, October 2014 (Conleth Brady/IAEA) US Secretary of State John Kerry shakes hands with Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Zarif (US Department of State)

On 26 April, the Non-Proliferation and Nuclear Policy Programme held the fourth workshop under a MacArthur Foundation-funded project on

On 22 April, the Non-Proliferation and Nuclear Policy Programme hosted

strengthening cooperation between Chinese and Western policymaking

a workshop in collaboration with the Center on Global Energy Policy at

communities on nuclear issues. Held in Beijing and jointly organised with

Columbia University designed for the former members of the UN Panel of

the China Institute for International Studies, the meeting attracted experts

Experts on Iran to share their experiences. As the UN Secretariat takes on

from China, Japan, the Republic of Korea, the United Kingdom and the

the task of monitoring the implementation of UNSCR 2231, the new reso-

United States. Discussion covered a range of topics, including: non-prolif-

lution endorsing the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action and superseding

eration and nuclear security; cyber threats to civil nuclear facilities; nuclear

all previous sanctions resolutions on Iran, it will face a number of chal-

fuel cycle developments in the UK and China, with a focus on reprocess-

lenges. Some of these challenges will be unique to the Secretariat’s new

ing; and broader regional strategic issues, notably security on the Korean

mandate but in many areas they will mirror issues faced by the Panel.

Peninsula.

Read the workshop report.

Read the workshop report.

EUROPEAN STRATEGY

Brexit – The Strategic Implications On 13 June, the IISS convened a panel of experts to discuss the strategic implications of Britain’s EU referendum. Chaired by Survival editor Dana Allin, the authors of a recent package of articles on the subject took a decidedly negative view of the outlook should UK voters decide – as they subsequently did decide – to leave the European Union. Sir Lawrence Freedman, Emeritus Professor of War Studies at King’s College London, warned against the notion that Britain had experienced ‘a moment of greatness before we handed over sovereignty to the European Union’.

Protests against the result of the UK’s EU referendum (Flickr/Alex)

Subscribers to that notion were ignoring the post-imperial decline and the ‘various humiliations of the 1950s and 1960s’ that encouraged Britain to

was and would remain an intelligence superpower, whatever the referen-

join the-then Common Market, he said. François Heisbourg, Chairman of

dum outcome. However, he noted that the British intelligence community

the IISS and an adviser to the Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique,

greatly valued its EU-enabled access to large data sets that were crucial to

conceded that ‘first-order effects’ on Britain’s security arrangement might

investigating Islamist terrorism, and that his community was concerned

be modest, but ‘second-order effects’ could be grave indeed: the enormous

about the inevitable ‘hiatus’ that Brexit would bring about for arrange-

encouragement to the development of continental European ‘sovereignist’

ments that ‘would have to be renegotiated on a bilateral basis with 27 other

movements of the populist right and left, precipitating – in the worst case –

countries.’ Inkster further warned that a referendum decision to leave the

a collapsing EU with huge strategic implications for the UK. Nigel Inkster,

EU might be part of a ‘wider strategic unravelling of uncertain duration

IISS Director of Future Conflict and Cyber Security, who previously served

with consequences that are hard to predict.’

for 31 years in the British Secret Intelligence Service, stated that the UK

IISS NEWS

Watch the video.

For details of how to contact the IISS >

JULY 2015 | 19