IISS Newsletter July 2015

IISS news 

July 2015

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IISS Shangri-La Dialogue . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

Russia–Eurasia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

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Transnational Threats and Political Risk . . . 13

Non-Proliferation and Disarmament . . . . . . 19

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South Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

Security and Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

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Events . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15, 18

IISS–Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

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Geo-economics and Strategy . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

Publications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23

Defence and Military Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

Appointments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23

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14th IISS Shangri-La Dialogue, Singapore, 29–31 May 2015

Lee Hsien Loong, Prime Minister of Singapore

Dr Ashton Carter, Secretary of Defense, United States

The IISS convened the 14th Shangri-La Dialogue:

Republic of Korea, Thailand, the United States and

with various claimant states engaging in large-

Asia Security Summit, its annual meeting for the

Vietnam, the strength of European representation,

scale land reclamation and construction. The

defence ministers and national security estab-

and the fact that many of the ministerial-level del-

last week, he remarked, had seen the release of a

lishments of the Asia-Pacific, in Singapore with

egates present were participating for the first time.

Chinese defence white paper that was ‘sure to be

Director-

viewed as a foundational text for a more extrovert

delegates, and strong representation from 28 par-

General and Chief Executive Dr John Chipman

Chinese defence policy’. Dr Chipman said that the

ticipant countries, the event was characterised by

highlighted ‘strategic unease’ as a defining char-

most important overarching question facing secu-

its serious and constructive exchanges between

acteristic of the contemporary Asia-Pacific region.

rity policymakers in the Asia-Pacific concerned

governmental delegates in the context of a regional

A condition of flux defined relations among states

the type of regional order that would best assure

security environment that has remained tense since

in the region, and tentative security alignments

‘long-term peace and stability’. More than ever, Dr

the previous year’s Dialogue. Other important fea-

and strategic hedging were prevalent, he said.

Chipman said, Asia-Pacific states and their extra-

tures included the strength of delegations from key

Dr Chipman noted that the first half of 2015 had

regional partners needed to think strategically

countries including Australia, China, Japan, the

seen renewed tensions in the South China Sea,

about their long-term interests.

great success at the end of May. With almost 500

In

his

opening

remarks,

IISS

SHANGRI-LA DIALOGUE

FOREIGN POLICY

UNITED STATES

DEFENCE POLICY

Lee Hsien Loong, Prime Minister of Singapore

Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS

In his keynote address, Singapore Prime

ister noted that the Trans-Pacific Partnership

Regarding Japan, Mr Lee said that even sev-

Minister Lee Hsien Loong noted that 2015 is

(TPP) would give substance to the US rebalance

enty years after its end, the Second World War

the fiftieth anniversary of his country’s sepa-

to Asia. While there is ‘clearly a competitive

continued to ‘cast a shadow’ over Japan’s rela-

ration from Malaysia. This was a good time,

dynamic’ between the TPP and China’s Asian

tions with its neighbours China and Korea. In

he said, to ‘step back and…look at what has

Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) initia-

Mr Lee’s view, Japan ‘needs to acknowledge

changed over the past fifty years’, focusing on

tive, Mr Lee noted that Singapore hoped that

past wrongs’, particularly regarding specific

three issues that had been on the agenda of the

‘eventually China will join the TPP, and the US

issues such as comfort women and the Nanjing

Shangri-La Dialogue since it was first convened

and Japan will join the AIIB’.

Massacre. But, for their part, Japan’s neighbours

In a different model of competition, how-

‘need to accept Japan’s acknowledgements and

ever, ‘unhappy outcomes’ might be ‘tougher to

not demand that Japan apologises over and over

Prime Minister Lee noted that, while the

avoid’. The disputes in the East China Sea and

again’. Given the way that historical controversy

Obama administration had reaffirmed the

South China Sea have ‘heated up significantly’.

has contradicted Prime Minister Abe’s desire for

United States’ role as a Pacific power through

In the South China Sea, ‘claimant states are

Japan to play a more active role in Asia, such

its ‘strategic rebalance’, the balance of power

taking unilateral actions in the disputed areas,

reconciliation would help Japan to ‘become a

in Asia was shifting, particularly as a result of

drilling for oil and gas, reclaiming land, setting

normal country’. Mr Lee also expressed hope

China’s growing economic power and influ-

up outposts and reinforcing their military pres-

that India could ‘make a big contribution’

ence, as well as its military build-up. He said

ence’. The US had responded with ‘increased

through a deepening partnership with the rest

that the US-China relationship was ‘the key’

overflights and sailings’ near the disputed terri-

of Asia.

to China’s peaceful rise, arguing that this rela-

tories. Non-claimant Asian countries, including

Turning to the question of regional coop-

tionship was ‘not a zero-sum game’: it includes

Singapore, had a stake in how the region’s

eration and integration, Prime Minister Lee

‘many interdependencies and opportunities’.

maritime disputes are handled, said the prime

remarked that, compared with fifty years earlier

The prime minister emphasised that no Asian

minister. While these disputes were likely to

when there were relatively few links between

country wanted to choose sides between the US

‘outlive the Shangri-La Dialogue’, they needed

Asian countries, the region is now ‘coming closer

and China, and that ‘we are glad that successive

to be contained in order to avoid ‘bad out-

together’. However, the prime minister said

US administrations and…Chinese leaderships

comes’. Mr Lee argued that China and ASEAN

that Southeast Asia’s latest humanitarian crisis,

have engaged’ with each other. While peace-

should conclude their Code of Conduct on the

involving ‘the human trafficking of Rohingyas

ful competition between these two major

South China Sea ‘as soon as possible’ and that

and Bangladeshis’, had put ‘huge stress’ on

powers across the region was to be expected,

adherence to international law, including the

Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia. A ‘response

it was important that they should not divide

UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, would

at the source’, as well as at sea, was necessary in

the region into two spheres of influence, which

be ‘the best outcome’. Contrastingly, an out-

order to find a solution.

would circumscribe other countries’ options

come determined by ‘might is right’ would set

ASEAN was building ‘a framework of

and increase the risk of rivalry and conflict.

‘a bad precedent’, even if a physical clash was

cooperation in the broader region’, using mech-

A more desirable form of competition would

avoided. In the long-term, stable regional order

anisms such as the ASEAN Regional Forum,

involve China ‘deepening its cooperation and

would require ‘consent and legitimacy’ as well

ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting, and the

making friends all over Asia’. The prime min-

as a balance of power.

East Asia Summit (EAS). With its broad mem-

in 2002: ‘the balance of power, regional cooperation, and terrorism’.

2

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JULY 2015

IISS NEWS

ASIA-PACIFIC

JAPAN

MILITARY COOPERATION

SHANGRI-LA DIALOGUE

pect for further militarisation and the potential for these activities to lead to miscalculation or conflict, Carter called for an immediate and lasting end to land reclamation by all claimants.

Washington also opposes military structures on reclaimed land. He encouraged ASEAN and China to conclude their Code of Conduct on the South China Sea ‘this year’.

The United States will continue to protect freedom of navigation and overflight, Carter said, and to ‘fly, sail, and operate wherever international law allows’. Making it clear that America ‘would not be deterred from exercising these rights’, he said ‘turning an underwater rock into an airfield simply does not afford the rights of sovereignty or permit restrictions on international air or maritime transit’. China’s actions in the South China Sea put it out of step with the international rules and norms that underscore the Asia-Pacific security architec-

Dr Ashton Carter, Secretary of Defense, United States

ture, he added.

In the question-and-answer session following Secretary Carter’s address, Senior Colonel

bership, said Mr Lee, the EAS ‘ties together

In the first plenary session during the

the two sides of the Pacific’, reducing the risk

Dialogue’s Saturday morning, on ‘The United

Zhao

of ‘an East Asian bloc…which might split the

States and Challenges to Asia-Pacific Security’,

China-US Defense Relations Research Center,

Pacific down the middle’. But strong national-

US Secretary of Defense Dr Ashton Carter

Academy of Military Science, China, called

ist sentiments and some governments’ domestic

promoted the vision of a shared regional archi-

Carter’s criticism of China’s island and reef

preoccupations implied that ‘we have our work

tecture in the Asia-Pacific region in which ‘all

construction activities ‘groundless and not con-

cut out’ to ensure that regional cooperation con-

nations have the opportunity to rise and pros-

structive’. Freedom of navigation in the South

tinues to develop.

per’. The US rebalance toward Asia-Pacific is

China Sea has never been affected, he said, and

On terrorism, Mr Lee noted that ISIS was ‘the

aimed at helping the region fulfil its promise,

China had never taken any ‘proactive measures’

latest virulent incarnation of the jihadi threat’,

Carter said. The next phase of the rebalance

through construction activities that affect peace

and that it had attracted ‘malcontents and mis-

includes new military platforms as well as eco-

and stability. On the contrary, ‘over the past

fits, misguided souls and naïve youths from all

nomic and diplomatic engagement. He extolled

decades, the region has been peaceful and stable

over the world’. Jihadis returning to their home

the TPP trade agreement, which recently

because of China’s great restraint’. He called

countries posed serious security risks, as did

passed an important milestone in winning

China’s activities in the region ‘legitimate, rea-

the prospect of ‘lone-wolf’ attackers. Southeast

Congressional approval.

sonable and justified’. He asked if America’s

Xiaozhuo,

Deputy

Director-General,

Asia, he said, is ‘a key recruitment centre’ for

Carter announced that the US Department

harsh criticism, military reconnaissance activi-

ISIS, and ISIS has said it intends to establish a

of Defense is launching a new Southeast Asia

ties and military threats help to resolve disputes

wilayat (province) of its intended global caliph-

Maritime Security Initiative to help build capac-

in the South China Sea and maintain peace

ate there. While this was a ‘pie-in-the-sky’ idea,

ity. In enumerating enhanced cooperation with

and stability in the region. In response, Carter

it was ‘not so far-fetched’ that it could establish

several US partners in the region, he said that in

repeated that land reclamation in the South

a physical base somewhere in the region. For its

late 2014 America and China had reached two

China Sea was not limited to China, but that

part, Singapore ‘takes terrorism, and in particu-

‘historic’ confidence-building agreements and

China’s recent large-scale activities are unprec-

lar ISIS, very, very seriously’ and is participating

are working on a measure to prevent dangerous

edented. He said that US air and sea operations

in the international coalition against the organ-

air-to-air encounters.

in this maritime region have taken place for decades and would continue.

isation. The prime minister announced that the

Carter raised an issue of contention with

Singapore air force’s deployment of an in-flight

China concerning its activities in the South

In the second plenary session, on ‘New

refuelling aircraft to the coalition ‘starts today’.

China Sea. He noted that several nations that

Forms of Security Collaboration in Asia’, min-

Concluding his address, Mr Lee asserted his

claim parts of that sea have developed outposts

isters from Japan, Indonesia and India offered

hope that in fifty years’ time ‘a stable regional

over the years. Yet China has gone ‘much fur-

their thoughts on threats to regional security and

balance’ will continue, that ASEAN would be

ther and faster than any other’; in just the past

proposed new mechanisms for collaboration

‘an effective and relevant actor’, that ‘there will

18 months, China has reclaimed over 2000 acres,

on dealing with them. Gen Nakatani, Japan’s

be free trade in the Asia-Pacific instead of the

more than all other claimants combined. This

Minister of Defense, said that although mul-

current alphabet soup of trading arrangements’,

was a source of tension.

tilateral security cooperation in Asia was often

and that it should not be the case that ‘might is right’.

IISS NEWS

Expressing deep concern about the pace

seen as lagging behind Europe’s, the region had

and scope of the land reclamation, the pros-

enjoyed peace since the end of the Cold War in JULY 2015 | 3

SHANGRI-LA DIALOGUE

DEFENCE POLICY

CONFLICT PREVENTION

Rao Inderjit Singh, Minister of State for Defence, India

General (Retd) Ryamizard Ryacudu, Minister of Defense, Indonesia

Gen Nakatani, Minister of Defense, Japan

spite of serious security challenges. This success

to ensure safety and freedom of navigation

stop logistic support to terrorist groups. There

story was the result of a combination of factors,

and overflight. Nakatani gave the example of

was also a need for ASEAN leaders to address

including the solidarity of ASEAN and the vari-

joint exercises using the Code for Unplanned

the humanitarian issue of the Rohingya boat

ous multilateral forums constructed around it,

Encounters at Sea, such as those recently com-

people. Meanwhile, the Nepal earthquake had

as well as the bilateral alliances and military

pleted by Japan and the Philippines. Measures

once again shown the need for quick regional

presence of the United States. ASEAN should

to prevent accidents involving submarines must

responses to disasters.

remain at the centre of regional security.

also be considered. Secondly, the SLDI would

It was necessary to think one step ahead

However, Nakatani described as deeply

enhance safety in sea lanes and air traffic routes.

in order to ward off each threat to regional

regrettable that ‘at this very moment, vast land

Nakatani noted that the Malaysian airliner that

security. ASEAN has developed various mecha-

reclamation and construction of sea ports and

disappeared in 2014 had still not been found.

nisms to deal with security issues, including

airstrips are being conducted at a rapid pace in

A system was needed to monitor and control

its ADMM and ADMM+ meetings, which had

the South China Sea.’ In addition, there were

regional aerospace around the clock.

been acknowledged as models. But according to

attempts to change the status quo in the East

Thirdly, the SLDI would improve disaster

the minister, ‘a vast new form of security collab-

China Sea. He called for agreement on a Code of

response capability, specifically by streamlin-

oration in Asia is inevitable…because a security

Conduct for the South China Sea.

ing procedures for rapid deployment of aircraft

incident that hits a nation will at the same time

Minister Nakatani set out Japan’s ideas for

carrying emergency relief and establishing rules

affect other neighbouring countries as well as

future security collaboration based around

for their admission to stricken areas. Japan,

the international community.’ For example, an

three pillars. The first of these was the Japan-US

Nakatani said, was determined to put the SLDI

incident in the Malacca Strait would affect not

Alliance, which had recently been updated

into practice.

only Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore, but

with revised Guidelines for Japan-US Defense

General (retired) Ryamizard Ryacudu,

also East Asia, Europe, the Middle East and

Cooperation. These would enable seamless

Indonesia’s Minister of Defense, said ASEAN

North America. Another example was ISIS,

cooperation with the US to ensure regional sta-

had evolved into a ‘family organisation that

which had affected both regional and interna-

bility and also in domains such as cyber-security

exerts the spirit of brotherhood among member

tional communities.

and space, and would foster cooperation with

states’. Members were able to solve their dif-

New forms of collaboration would improve

other partners. The second pillar was Japan’s

ferences with each other, but faced common

on existing structures, without adding more

own efforts to pursue regional peace and pros-

challenges such as terrorism, radicalisation,

organisations. What was needed was ‘a new

perity, deriving from its ‘deep remorse’ over

natural disasters, pandemic disease, piracy,

concept, new culture and understanding.’ Talks

the Second World War. Legislation before par-

insurgency, cyber-attacks and drug smuggling.

were needed to find a solution to South China

liament would allow Japan to contribute more

Structures and mechanisms of cooperation were

Sea disputes, and Ryacudu suggested joint

actively.

needed to tackle these threats.

patrols among stakeholders.

The third pillar was closer cooperation with

A regional strategy was needed to tackle

Rao Inderjit Singh, Minister of State for

regional countries. In this context, Nakatani pro-

terrorist threats and radicalism. For its part,

Defence, India, said regional security threats

posed a Shangri-La Dialogue Initiative (SLDI),

Indonesia was using moderate Islamic organ-

were acquiring new forms, and they demanded

under which nations would promote common

isations to spread peaceful religious teaching,

a stronger and more innovative security archi-

rules both at sea and in the air, for example

while keeping alert to threats and seeking to

tecture.

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JULY 2015

IISS NEWS

FOREIGN POLICY

Michael Fallon, Secretary of State for Defence, United Kingdom

Dato’ Seri Hishammuddin Tun Hussein, Minister of Defence, Malaysia

CHINA

SHANGRI-LA DIALOGUE

General Tea Banh, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Defense, Cambodia

The growth of terrorism and religious

Other areas for improved cooperation

ignored. Policymakers risked falling into habits

extremism posed the greatest threat. The rise of

included disaster relief, evacuation of nation-

of mind shaped by existing trends and failing to

ISIS had shown the need for intelligence-sharing

als trapped in conflict, and cyber-threats posed

give attention to longer-term issues. In today’s

and collaboration between different countries’

to, for example, public transport, electricity

complex and uncertain world one set of tools

police and immigration authorities. However,

distribution and banks. Extremists’ use of the

and one strategic mindset was not enough.

new forms of collaboration had also arisen

internet and social media to radicalise recruits

Southeast Asia faced three flashpoints. The

because security was being defined in a more

also required law enforcement agencies to work

first was the Rohingya refugee crisis. Malaysia

comprehensive manner than before to include

together.

had taken a leadership role in providing the

food, energy, water, information and navigation.

In the question-and-answer session, del-

Rohingya with temporary shelter and pro-

Newer forms of cooperation were based on

egates noted a proliferation of new cooperation

tection, but this issue required a just and

regular, structured dialogue between nations

initiatives. Not only was there the SLDI proposed

comprehensive settlement at source and had to

rather than on formal alliances: examples

by Nakatani, but a Southeast Asia Maritime

be resolved in ‘the ASEAN way’.

included ASEAN and the Shanghai Cooperation

Security Initiative from US Defense Secretary

So far the focus had been on defeating ISIS

Organisation. ‘ASEAN is without doubt the best

Ash Carter and, recently, a South China Sea

in Syria and Iraq, but ISIS had established a

example of a forum that promotes an environ-

Peace Initiative proposed by Taiwan’s president.

foothold in other regions including Southeast

ment of shared security in its region through

Opening the third plenary session, on

Asia, where some thirty groups had pledged

a transparent, open and inclusive dialogue,’

‘Preventing Conflict Escalation’, Malaysian

allegiance to it. Two hundred Malaysians had

Singh said. India had expanded its engage-

Minister of Defence Dato’ Seri Hishammuddin

joined ISIS in Syria and a further 100 had been

ment with ASEAN to a full strategic partnership

Tun Hussein said that the topic of discussion

arrested for supporting ISIS. There was a need

under which it would play a more active role in

gave rise to both optimism and pessimism: opti-

for vigilance and cooperation to prevent the

helping to address threats in Southeast Asia and

mism, because it suggested that it lay within our

establishment of an ISIS caliphate and to combat

the Asia-Pacific region.

power to prevent conflict; pessimism, because

ISIS ideology by addressing social and political

Amidst growing threats to freedom of navi-

it suggested conflicts were inevitable. Existing

concerns of vulnerable youth and enhancing

gation, India was creating a robust system of

conflicts in the Middle East, Europe and Africa

their sense of dignity.

coastal surveillance and monitoring, and was

appeared not only to be unresolved but looked

The most serious issue was tension in the

collaborating with partner countries to share

set to get worse. Peace and stability remained

South China Sea, which could escalate into the

experiences, conduct exercises and exchange

crucial for Southeast Asia and the world.

deadliest conflict of the modern age. Malaysia

information.

exercise

Conflicts elsewhere could spread to the region,

supported the implementation of a code of con-

between India, Sri Lanka and Maldives was one

so Southeast Asia had a strong stake in conflict

duct and the avoidance of actions that might

example, as well as the SIMBEX naval exercises

prevention.

raise tensions. There were encouraging prec-

A

joint

coastguard

with Singapore. In 2008, India established the

Shifts in technology had created an unpre-

edents for the bilateral resolution of claims via

Indian Ocean Naval Symposium, which now

dictable threat environment. It had become

the International Court of Justice. States had

brought together 35 navies to enhance under-

conventional wisdom to emphasise non-state

the right to act as they saw fit in their sovereign

standing of maritime challenges and develop

threats. This broadly conveyed the current

areas but also had the responsibility to be aware

collective capacities to address them.

reality but the risk of state threats could not be

of the wider implications of their actions.

IISS NEWS

JULY 2015 | 5

SHANGRI-LA DIALOGUE

CONFLICT PREVENTION

In conclusion, there was a need for states to:

Middle East and Africa, ISIS and Boko Haram

Sun Jianguo, Deputy Chief of General Staff

keep sight of the bigger picture; develop early-

were seeking to establish states. In Asia, North

of China’s People’s Liberation Army, who

warning systems for security issues; develop

Korea continued behaviour justifying its ‘rogue

began by emphasising China’s commitment to

detailed strategies for dealing with social media;

state’ label. And land reclamation projects in

peaceful development and international stabil-

and to promote more military diplomacy, intel-

the South China Sea risked giving rise to mis-

ity. He suggested, following China’s president

ligence exchanges, openness and transparency.

calculation. Regional tensions in the Asia-Pacific

Xi Jingping, ‘a community of shared destiny

region had global consequences.

for all mankind’, which would promote peace

General Tea Banh, Cambodia’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National

The UK had drawn lessons from its security

and economic prosperity. To achieve this, zero-

Defense, said that most wars began gradually

engagements in the Balkans and Afghanistan.

sum thinking in international relations had to be

and this meant there was scope for diplomacy to

First, it was essential to speak out about the

replaced by new models for win-win coopera-

exercise effect. There were three causes of esca-

causes of aggression and to defend one’s values.

tion, the Admiral said. He stressed that China

lation: strategic uncertainty; a lack of attention

The UK government had no position on sov-

was ready to fulfil its obligations in regional

by the international community; and a lack of

ereignty claims in the South China Sea but

and international security. Examples he cited

rules of interaction. Miscalculation of the kind

provocative behaviour there risked escalation.

included China’s growing contribution to UN

engendered by security dilemmas and a lack of

The UK was concerned at the scale and speed of

peacekeeping missions, and its provision of

confidence in each other’s intentions could lead

current land-reclamation and the implications

naval escorts for ships taking chemical weapons

to conflict.

for freedom of navigation, and called on all

from Syria for destruction. Furthermore, China

Another cause of conflict was the lack of

parties to refrain from provocative actions. The

was actively engaged in disaster-response

a sense of community, which could lead to

focus should be on restraint and responsibility,

operations. Bilateral and multilateral defence

the conviction that only force could generate

dialogue and diplomacy and the establishment

cooperation was on the rise with the Chinese

security. This was not inevitable and, over the

of a binding code of conduct.

military now involved in military training activ-

course of history, groups of states had been able

The second lesson was to maintain strong

ities with over 50 countries, according to the

to establish communities and with them norms

armed forces. States needed the means to

Admiral. Security dialogue and exchanges with

of conduct.

enforce peace. The UK was investing in new

the United States, Russia and ASEAN nations

As to the absence of rules governing inter-

military capabilities to the tune of £160 billion

were expanding.

action between states, here too there were some

over the next decade, including new aircraft car-

Referring to territorial disputes in the South

positive examples including the non-use of

riers and the Joint Strike Fighter. The UK was

China Sea, Admiral Sun insisted that China had

chemical weapons during the Second World

also expanding its defence presence in the Asia-

always ‘exercised enormous restraint’ and con-

War, and nuclear restraint during the Cold War.

Pacific region and leveraging defence training.

tributed to a situation that was, overall, stable

Dialogue should always be the first resort

Capacity was however of no use without the

and peaceful: freedom of navigation had never

in dealing with tensions. Existing mechanisms

will to act and the UK had shown a willingness

been at risk. Admiral Sun argued that China’s

within Southeast Asia had already proved their

to engage in the Baltic and against ISIS. The UK

construction activities in the South China Sea

worth including the ASEAN Defence Ministers

was the fifth-largest funder of UN peacekeep-

were essentially functional, primarily aimed

Meeting

Dato’Seri

ing operations and was involved around the

at delivering public goods including maritime

Hishammuddin, which at its Langkawi meet-

world including in the search for MH370, the

search and rescue, disaster prevention and

ing in March 2015 had focused on the threat

Philippines typhoon, Vanuatu and Nepal.

relief, safety of navigation, environmental pro-

(ADMM),

chaired

by

tection, and meteorological observation.

from ISIS and had agreed to enhance coopera-

The third lesson was the need to strengthen

tion in addressing it. Other achievements of the

international relationships. Existing post-Sec-

A third strand in the Admiral’s speech cen-

ADMM included agreement on the avoidance

ond World War institutions remained valid and

tred on ideas designed to enhance defence and

of incidents at sea. Maritime security remained

NATO was more relevant than ever. As part

security cooperation in general terms. Enduring

a pressing regional concern. Disputes had to be

of the European defence architecture, the UK

peace with an international order based on the

resolved peacefully and Cambodia supported

wished to see the evolution of a regional defence

principles of the UN Charter would go hand-

the code of conduct proposal. Without existing

architecture in the Asia-Pacific region but also

in-hand with relations among countries based

regional mechanisms the situation in the South

supported a central US role. The UK also wel-

on trust and inclusiveness. The resolution of

China Sea would have already escalated. In con-

comed China’s contribution to international

differences and disputes was possible through

clusion, General Tea Banh said that managing

public goods, and was developing defence rela-

step-by-step consultation and dialogue. Shared

strategic tension was a vital issue and required

tions with Japan and Korea. Its commitment

responsibilities, said Admiral Sun, required that

states to change their perceptions of each other.

to the Five Power Defence Arrangements was

large countries do not bully smaller ones, but

undiminished.

small countries also would have to refrain from

Michael Fallon, the United Kingdom’s Secretary of State for Defence, said that the

The majority of questions in the third ple-

using regional security issues for individual

UK had strong links with the Asia-Pacific region

nary session focused on two areas: the response

gain. In closing, Admiral Sun returned to the

in trade and security, and shared the values of

to ISIS and the tensions in the South China Sea.

principle of win-win cooperation, which would

most Asia-Pacific states, namely tolerance, jus-

The Sunday morning of the Dialogue

build peace and guarantee security.

opened with a speech in the fourth plenary

New Zealand’s Minister of Defence, Gerry

The world was becoming a more dangerous

session, on ‘Strengthening regional order in

Brownlee, pointed to his country’s dependence

place. In Europe, old threats were re-emerg-

the Asia-Pacific: towards more active conflict

on seaborne trade and freedom of navigation

ing with Russia’s activities in Ukraine. In the

resolution and cooperation’, from Admiral

to underscore the link between stability and

tice and the rule of law.

6

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JULY 2015

IISS NEWS

ASIA-PACIFIC

Admiral Sun Jianguo, Deputy Chief, General Staff Department, People’s Liberation Army, China

Dr Ursula von der Leyen, Federal Minister of Defence, Germany

SHANGRI-LA DIALOGUE

Gerry Brownlee, Minister of Defence, New Zealand

Dialogue,

law. Third, the transparency that comes with

stressed, had benefitted greatly from the eco-

speakers from Europe stressed their economic

constant interaction furthered mutual trust.

nomic growth in all of Asia. Brownlee warned,

interdependence with Asia, which gives them

Fourth, a sustainable security architecture was

however, that ‘economic interdependence on its

a direct stake in stability and security in the

never directed against any country, but focused

own will not prevent a drift towards strategic

region. Dr Ursula von der Leyen, Germany’s

on cooperation for mutual benefit. Fifth, by

competition.’ An open and inclusive regional

Federal Minister of Defence, pointed out that

working together, small and large countries

security order was a necessary addition to pre-

while the regional contexts quite clearly dif-

gained strategic relevance in a global context.

vent miscalculation, escalation and conflict.

fered in Asia and in Europe, many patterns were

Dr von der Leyen closed by expressing her hope

Mr Brownlee highlighted four pillars of

similar in the realm of security challenges: trans-

that dialogue and the sharing of experiences

activity for conflict prevention and resolution:

national terrorism, failing states, military power

across regions and continents would lead to a

multilateral integration; confidence-building

projection and latent territorial conflicts were all

world that was ‘united, more stable and safer.’

measures; military cooperation; and people-to-

seen as pressing concerns in both regions.

During a lively question-and-answer session,

economic integration in Asia. New Zealand, he

Throughout

the

Shangri-La

people links. New Zealand was pursuing the

Dr von der Leyen offered lessons learnt from

several questions touched on China’s defence

first pillar through its current non-permanent

a German perspective, arguing that cooperation

posture and disputes in the South China Sea.

UN Security Council seat and its partner-

among European countries that had been ene-

Responding, Admiral Sun argued that while

ship status with ASEAN. Transparency was

mies in the Second World War, over the course

the South China Sea issue might animate much

at the root of confidence-building, according

of the last seven decades, was ‘living proof’ that

debate in expert circles, it was not actually a core

to Brownlee, who suggested that otherwise

collaboration can produce win-win outcomes

issue in posing a risk to stability in the region.

rapid military modernisation in the region

and prosperity for all nations involved. She

Regarding a possible Air Defence Identification

would be difficult to manage: it might ulti-

stressed that Germany had been able to rise

Zone in the South China Sea, the Admiral sug-

mately endanger the very economic growth that

as an economic power because its companies

gested that China would base its decisions on

enables defence spending increases. Military

could trade all over the world, benefitting from

the risk to safety and security it perceived from

cooperation could bring practical benefits to

the freedom of the sea. The lesson she drew was

activities there.

countries in the region because many security

that ‘stability, security and prosperity are indi-

challenges were shared, Brownlee said. These

visible’.

Opening the fifth and final plenary session, on ‘Global Security Challenges and the Asia-

included counter-piracy activities and counter-

To maintain the conditions for stability

Pacific: Building Cooperation between Regions’,

terrorism, but also humanitarian assistance and

and prosperity it was necessary to invest in

Federica Mogherini, High Representative of

disaster relief. Finally, defence establishments

an overarching security architecture consist-

the European Union for Foreign Affairs and

should undertake efforts to ensure that future

ing of alliances and partnerships, she said.

Security Policy and Vice-President of the

leaders from both military and civilian organ-

Even though partnerships are hard work, their

European Commission, told delegates that

isations have opportunities to work together for

value added was clear and evolved around five

the EU is not an Asian or a Pacific power, but

regional security. Brownlee cited the ASEAN

elements, according to von der Leyen. First,

it has significant economic stakes and political

Defence Ministers Meeting Plus Future Leaders

they provided structures and procedures for

partnerships in the region. Europe and Asia

Programme as an example for the kind of activ-

dialogue in times of crisis. Second, their rules-

face common challenges to which only joint

ity to pursue.

based nature nurtures respect for the rule of

responses can be effective. Ms Mogherini noted

IISS NEWS

JULY 2015 | 7

SHANGRI-LA DIALOGUE

CONFLICT RESOLUTION

Kevin Andrews, Minister for Defence, Australia

Federica Mogherini, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy; Vice-President, European Commission

Dr Ng Eng Hen, Minister for Defence, Singapore

that more goods and services traded between

than ten years. Currently it is running five

minister said, nor prevent the risk of miscalcula-

Europe and Asia than across the Atlantic.

military and 11 civilian missions on three con-

tion or of states engaging in coercive behaviour.

Europe is also the largest foreign-aid donor

tinents, with 7000 personnel deployed. Some of

In fact, it can facilitate coercive behaviour.

to the Asia-Pacific, and EU engagement with

these missions benefit Asian states directly, in

Australia is worried about any development

regional states is extensive.

particular the Atalanta anti-piracy naval mission

that raises tension in the East or South China

off the Horn of Africa, which reduced attacks

Seas. That includes large-scale land reclama-

from 163 in 2009 to two last year.

tion by claimants and in particular the prospect

Asia is both dynamic and fragile: its economic weight is enormous but the region’s latent conflict potential cannot be ignored, Ms Mogherini

Kevin Andrews, Minister for Defence,

of militarisation of artificial structures. Thus

noted. Europe has a direct interest in ensuring

Australia, began by noting that Canberra has

Australia considers essential the swift conclu-

freedom of navigation because of global supply

come to realise that it must consider the mutual

sion of a code of conduct between China and

chains, and hence it hopes to see an ASEAN-

dependencies between its home region of the

ASEAN. In tandem, it calls on all parties to exer-

China Code of Conduct on the South China

Asia-Pacific and the rest of the world. The

cise restraint, halt reclamation activities, refrain

Sea concluded as soon as possible. Europe’s

Asia-Pacific’s rise will depend on its continued

from provocative actions, and take steps to ease

vision, she added, was partnership with a stra-

economic progress, he said, and that in turn

tensions.

tegic purpose, involving concrete commitments

rests on the continuation of freedom of naviga-

and priorities. These include the extension to

tion and trade.

In common with other ministers at the Dialogue, Mr Andrews directly addressed the

ASEAN of the EU’s unmatched experience in

Half of Australia’s trade is routed through

threat to the region posed by fighters return-

breaking down barriers among member-states

the South China Sea and so tension and com-

ing from Iraq and Syria—a phenomenon that

and building unity. The European Commission

peting claims in that area are of great concern

underscores the connection between global

is doubling its aid budget for ASEAN and total

to Canberra. The shared dependence of the

security challenges and the Indo-Pacific. Many

EU aid to the ten-member bloc is approaching

Indo-Pacific powers on such corridors should

in the region are connected with or inspired by

€3 billion. There is also a High-Level Dialogue

create a powerful incentive to manage conflicts

ISIS, he noted, and so regional states must coop-

on disaster relief.

peacefully and ensure freedom of navigation

erate to defeat a threat that is likely to be present

Beyond the Asia-Pacific, Ms Mogherini said

for all, he said. There are grounds for optimism

for several decades.

there was scope for Europe and Asia to be part-

because already the regional states’ shared

Dr Ng Eng Hen, Minister for Defence,

ners in contributing to the stabilisation of fragile

interests have led to enhanced cooperation on

Singapore, began by crediting the interna-

states. Military force alone will not defeat ISIS,

common challenges such as natural disasters,

tional milieu as well as the leadership of Lee

she suggested, and it was necessary for Europe

piracy and terrorism. The anti-piracy operation

Kuan Yew, for Singapore’s extraordinary

to make the most of its huge potential and to use

off the Horn of Africa is a conspicuous success

development over the previous 50 years. The

all its tools and strengths in a coordinated and

and the day-to-day cooperation there builds a

rules-based system constructed by the US and

coherent way.

level of confidence that it would be more diffi-

leading western powers, he said, was gen-

cult to achieve for Asian navies operating closer

erally inclusive and allowed many states to

to home.

progress. The US presence in Asia provided

The

High

Representative

concluded

her remarks by recalling that the EU, while thought of primarily as an economic power,

Greater interdependence might lessen the

vital strategic reassurance and its dominance

has deployed personnel to crisis zones for more

chance of conflict but it does not eliminate it, the

of the global commons enabled all the East

8

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JULY 2015

IISS NEWS

ISLAMIC STATE

TERRORISM AND SECURITY

SHANGRI-LA DIALOGUE

Asian export-based economies to develop. In

manifestations of this change in power dynam-

minister observed, but it was important at the

time, ASEAN, India and China were beneficia-

ics. Air defence identification zones, or similar

same time to ensure that the security architec-

ries too.

regimes for the seas, whilst ostensibly protect-

ture remains inclusive and operates on widely

This system is now in flux, Dr Ng noted.

ing freedom of navigation and overflight by

accepted global norms. The rules-based frame-

China and India are no longer poor countries

others, have resulted in incidents at sea and in

work that underwrote our prosperity and

marginalised by the Cold War or sequestered

the air.

security for decades must remain relevant and strong, he concluded.

behind the Bamboo Curtain. New institutions

Preservation of a rules-based system is nec-

have emerged, reflecting the rise of Asia—

essary but not sufficient to maintain peace and

At the end of the fifth plenary session, Dr

the BRICS Development Bank, the Asian

stability in the Asia-Pacific: states must also

Chipman said he judged the 14th Shangri-La

Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), and

be infused with the correct spirit, the minister

Dialogue to have been ‘an immense success’.

China’s ‘One Belt One Road’ initiative and

observed. Singapore is concerned that there

In all, 38 countries and international organisa-

the US$40 billion Silk Road Fund. Japan too

are uncertainties within international agree-

tions were represented, and there were more

is active, collaborating with ASEAN to offer

ments and that these frameworks have not built

than 100 inter-governmental bilateral meetings,

US$110 billion for building Asian infrastructure

mutual confidence and trust. Instead they have

as well as a number of trilateral and multilateral

in the next five years, and the US is pushing for-

created instability. A deficit of trust now exists

meetings. The IISS was ‘delighted as co-host

ward its Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which

and can grow. Thus the regional states must

that many of the ministers used the platform of

Singapore hopes will be a driving force for the

work together to provide clarity, if not on prin-

the Shangri-La Dialogue to test ideas or to make

region.

ciples and law, then on procedures and practices

specific policy proposals’. He said that some

As powers rise in the Asia-Pacific, Dr Ng

to secure stability and restore confidence. Dr Ng

of the results of the Shangri-La Dialogue ‘will

said, there will be pressures for the rules that

said he hoped the Code of Conduct in the South

emerge over the weeks and months to come’.

have governed the international order to adjust,

China Sea would soon be finalised.

He noted that the dates for the next Shangri-La

to accommodate ‘nationalistic aspirations’.

Change in the international and regional

Events in the East and South China Seas are

system is inevitable as new powers emerge, the

Dialogue next year had already been decided: 3–5 June 2016.

Special Session 1: ARMED FORCES AND NEW TERRORIST THREATS The session heard that states faced three differ-

agency approach. It would inevitably take

forces that were deployable, had full-spectrum

ent military threats: from states, from state-like

time. Multinational intelligence collaboration

capabilities and were adaptable. They would

actors, and from non-state actors. Conflicts

and sharing would be essential.

need to be capable of containing non-state

that mixed two or three of these threats were

NATO states’ experience suggested that

actors whilst protecting the population. The

increasingly characterised as ‘hybrid’. There

intelligence, and a broad and deep under-

use of lethal force would need to be carefully

were insurgents and separatists in the region,

standing of the conflict, were essential, as

calibrated. This put a premium on precision

but ISIS posed the most immediate concern.

were strong political leadership and robust

weapons and the necessary intelligence, sur-

The ‘propaganda of the deed’ arising from the

military command and control. This required

veillance and reconnaissance capabilities to

very existence of the ‘caliphate’, amplified by

intelligence agencies, police and military

provide precision-targeting.

its modern and effective information operation, created two dangers: that of experienced foreign fighters returning home; and that of self-radicalised ‘lone wolves’. These dangers were likely to increase. In the short-term in Iraq, coalition air operations would only ever be a holding action, pending ejection of ISIS by Iraqi forces.

It was not yet clear that the threat was sufficiently contained, either in Iraq and Syria or globally. The international community was not displaying sufficient urgency. There was an urgent requirement for more effective strategic communications to contest the ISIS narrative.

The long-term solution would be to address the root causes of insurgency and terrorism.

This required the ability to integrate diverse types of power in a comprehensive inter-

IISS NEWS

A video capture of ISIS militants

JULY 2015 | 9

SHANGRI-LA DIALOGUE

ENERGY SECURITY

DEFENCE TECHNOLOGY

Special Session 2: ENERGY SECURITY CHALLENGES IN THE INDO-PACIFIC REGION The session addressed the opportunities for and challenges to energy security in the Asia-Pacific. Overall, panellists agreed that regional energy markets have functioned reasonably well, through orthodox price mechanisms. Threats to such energy security would include terrorist threats and political instability in the Middle East, and the effects of supplier countries being subjected to sanctions. Speakers identified the biggest threat to energy security as being at the intersection between energy markets and geopolitics.

There was, however, broad agreement that there were reasons to be sanguine about potential disruptions to energy markets. The

USS Nimitz transits the Strait of Malacca (US Navy/Derek A. Harkins)

United States continued to play an active role in the security of the Strait of Hormuz. In

panellists said, did not preclude the need for

intractable than bringing China into the pro-

the Strait of Malacca, security is provided by

new measures to sustain energy security. It is

vision of the public good of sea-lane security.

littoral states with some financial and techni-

possible that Asian powers and littoral states

Rather, the challenge stems from the geopoliti-

cal assistance from South Korea and Japan.

could take on more of the burden of securing

cal problem of managing the regional balance

Despite territorial disputes in the South China

the Strait of Hormuz.

of power as Asia transitions from a US-led

Sea, seaborne energy trade has not been threat-

However, the session heard that the chal-

ened. Such a relatively optimistic assessment,

lenge to energy security in Asia is more

regional order to one where China plays a substantively bigger role.

Special Session 3: CHALLENGES FOR MARITIME INTELLIGENCE, SURVEILLANCE AND RECONNAISSANCE The fundamental importance and the con-

to ‘bridge the gaps in trust’, according to

‘the security of the sea lines of communica-

siderable demands of maritime intelligence,

Admiral Harry Harris, Commander, US

tion cannot be tackled by just a single country’.

surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) in

Pacific Command.

However, Vice-Admiral Alexander Lopez,

the Asia-Pacific were laid out starkly by all

The issue of trust was a theme woven

Commander, Western Command, Armed

the panellists, who also stressed the impor-

throughout the session. Harris said that ‘part-

Forces of the Philippines, pointed out that:

tance of the maritime domain. Each speaker

ners must be able to share information with the

‘maritime security cooperation is still only in

acknowledged that guaranteed access to sea

assurance of its security.’ This is of particular

its developmental stage in our region, and if

lines of communication was essential to the

importance in the maritime domain given the

history is a guide, previous efforts of counter-

economic well-being of the region. Territorial

inherent multinational nature of the environ-

ing threats and challenges from a joint and

disputes, particularly in the South China

ment. General Tan Sri Zulkifeli Mohd Zin,

multinational level have not been very encour-

Sea, only served to further the need for ISR

Malaysia’s Chief of Defence Forces, noted:

aging.’

Both industry representatives on the panel, Chris Chadwick, President of Boeing Defense and Pat Dewar, Executive Vice President, Lockheed Martin International, suggested that technology could continue to help with the maritime ISR challenges the region faces.

However, Chadwick pointed out: ‘In maritime ISR, as in most things in life, one can sometimes have too much of a good thing.

Our commander has access to more data than ever before; that same data can easily become overwhelming. What is needed is actionable

Chinese Coast Guard vessel

10

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JULY 2015

information.’

IISS NEWS

ENVIRONMENT & CLIMATE CHANGE

MILITARY COOPERATION

SHANGRI-LA DIALOGUE

Special Session 4: EMERGING CHALLENGES TO SMALL-STATE SECURITY IN THE ASIA-PACIFIC All panellists in the session underlined the

trading

pivotal role that small and medium countries

geographically

country

far

play, both in relation to larger powers and in

removed

its

terms of their contribution to regional govern-

most important mar-

ance. The defence ministers of Timor-Leste

kets – New Zealand

and Papua New Guinea highlighted access

is highly dependent

and control of maritime resources as strategic

on the region’s strate-

priorities for small sea-dependent countries.

gic context. Dialogue,

Timor-Leste disputes its maritime bound-

military-to-military

ary with far larger Australia, with uncertain

relationships, disaster

implications for hydrocarbon extraction and

relief and assistance

resource sharing. PNG oversees one of the

with EEZ surveillance

largest Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ) in

are invaluable ways of mitigating security ten-

countries should not provoke big countries’.

the region, but with insufficient resources to

sions and building regional trust.

China’s commitment to founding the Asian

from

–

Residents of the Carteret Islands, Papua New Guinea, have been displaced by rising sea waters threatening their homes and crops

police it properly. Both ministers also stressed

Yardley maintained that security chal-

Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) with

climate-change challenges as urgent emerg-

lenges for small countries are essentially the

many of its smaller neighbours was cited as a

ing security concerns representing threats to

same as those for large countries, in terms

case in point. However, some delegates voiced

political and social stability.

of their potential region-wide consequences.

concern with the way in which the inherent

New Zealand’s Chief of Air Force, Air Vice-

Similarly, Senior Colonel Zhao spoke of

power asymmetry between small countries

Marshal Mike Yardley, and China’s Senior

Beijing’s view of a ‘community of shared

and larger powers could be exploited – par-

Colonel Zhao Xiaozhuo both returned to a

destiny’, regardless of country size. Trust

ticularly with regard to China’s insistence that

more conventional defence focus in framing

should be built on the basis that ‘big countries

disputes between countries be resolved bilat-

challenges to small-state security. As a small

should not bully small countries, and small

erally.

Special Session 5: AVOIDING MILITARY COMPETITION AND ARMS-RACING IN ASIA defence policies and

security arrangements, but could provide ‘an

transparent

in

their

extra layer of security.’ Speakers discussed

long-term

strategic

cooperative security measures in Europe and,

intentions.’

Another

while some questioned the utility of these in

panelist said that the

the Asian context, others agreed they were ‘a

US and China had

vehicle to create trust’.

been engaged in mili-

One speaker pointed to the need for trans-

tary competition for

parency with respect to strategic intentions as

20 years. The question

well as capability development. Others ques-

was ‘whether we can

tioned whether transparency was necessarily

avoid something that

good for stability. Transparency seems desir-

truly deserves to be

able, said one panellist, ‘from the perspective

referred to as an arms

of a stronger status quo power … and much

race.’ However, the

less appealing to a state that perceives itself as

session also heard that

weaker and perhaps has intentions to alter the

this competition might

status quo.’ But even if a state decided to be

With military budgets across Asia continuing

‘lead to to a dynamic stability in which poten-

more transparent, that could still raise ques-

to rise and armed forces still modernising amid

tial opponents are both deterred from using

tions of intent. For instance, Washington had

continuing tensions between states, common

force or threats of force against one another’.

taken the position that Beijing should become

Chinese PLAAF J-11B fighters

themes emerged from the panel’s five presen-

The importance of military-to-military coo-

more transparent. China had recently issued

tations, which principally discussed trust and

peration was evident, as was as the benefit of

its latest White Paper, and while Beijing is

transparency.

joint exercises and the publication of White

‘perhaps being more forthcoming and more

As one speaker said, because of accelerating

Papers, regular dialogue and cooperation

open … that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s

military modernisation ‘it is important for all

with multilateral forums. Cooperative secu-

reassuring to everyone’, according to the same

countries in the region to be open about their

rity developments need not impede bilateral

panelist.

IISS NEWS

JULY 2015 | 11

SHANGRI-LA DIALOGUE

GLOBALISATION

CHINA

Asia-Pacific Regional Security Assessment 2015 Press Launch

Charting the New Silk Road: China’s Strategic Goals and International Impact

Japanese Coast Guard ship (Shutterstock)

More than 30 journalists, regional security analysts and Shangri-La Dialogue delegates attended the press launch of the 2015 Asia-Pacific Regional Security Assessment on 29 May, shortly before the start of the

An oil tanker near Kalamay city in Xinjiang province, China (Shutterstock)

14th IISS Shangri-La Dialogue. The launch included presentations from a panel of contributors to the dossier: William Choong, Euan Graham,

On 29 May, shortly before the start of the 14th IISS Shangri-La Dialogue,

Bonnie Glaser, Rory Medcalf, Alexey Muraviev, Alexander Neill and Tan

IISS-Asia and the Shanghai-based Chunqiu Institute jointly organised a

See Seng. Dr Tim Huxley, Executive Director of IISS-Asia and co-editor of

discussion meeting examining the potential strategic impact of China’s

the dossier, provided an overview of the five parameters of the volume,

One Belt, One Road (OBOR) programme. The discussion sought to

the first of which is a definition of the broader Asia-Pacific region. The

assess China’s blueprint for OBOR in terms of economic and geopoliti-

dossier also focuses on the strategic roles played by China and the United

cal significance, and to identify the key strategic goals and challenges

States in the Asia-Pacific; the contributions made by middle-sized powers

of OBOR for the Chinese leadership. The discussion comprised two

such as Japan, Russia and South Korea to regional security; the roles of

panels, respectively chaired by Chunqiu Institute chairman Eric X. Li

ASEAN-led institutions and new political leaders in the region; and the

and IISS-Asia’s Shangri-La Dialogue Senior Fellow Alexander Neill.

nature of various lower-intensity regional challenges. One particular

Two leading academics from China, professors Wang Yiwei and Shen

question prompted responses from several of the panellists: BBC defence

Dingli, presented divergent views on China’s strategic goals, while

correspondent Jonathan Marcus asked whether, given increasing signs

Singapore-based Professor Huang Jing and Dr Valerie Niquet from the

that strategic competition and economic interdependence co-exist in the

Foundation for Strategic Research in Paris provided insight into some

region, new security paradigms should be established. Watch the launch

of the political and economic challenges for Beijing associated with the

on the IISS website.

OBOR programme.

Adelphi Launch: China’s Strong Arm On 29 May, a new IISS Adelphi book examining China’s changing foreign policy and growing global footprint was launched to great interest at this year’s Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore.

China’s Strong Arm: Protecting Citizens and Assets Abroad charts how Chinese companies’ increasing involvement in mining, construction and other projects overseas is forcing Beijing to act to safeguard Chinese workers and interests.

Despite the Chinese government’s firm commitment to ‘non-interference’ in other states’ affairs, it has sent planes and ships to evacuate thousands of its citizens from war zones in Libya, South Sudan and Yemen. And it has mediated peace talks between competing parties in Afghanistan and South Sudan.

Authors Jonas Parello-Plesner, a Danish diplomat, and Mathieu Duchatel, a senior researcher at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), presented the book’s major findings to a packed room during the high-profile security summit in Singapore. Watch the launch, chaired

by IISS Director of Editorial Dr Nicholas Redman, here. China’s Strong Arm was also launched at Arundel House and IISS-US in June.

12

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JULY 2015

IISS NEWS

EXPERTS

CYBER SECURITY

China: An Assessment of Xi Jinping’s Reforms after Two Years

CHINA

TRANSNATIONAL THREATS AND POLITICAL RISK

The Rise of China: Four Questions

Shanghai financial district (Dreamstime/Hupeng) Shenyang City, Liaoning Province, China (iStock)

Speaking at Arundel House on 18 May, former US Under-Secretary for Trade Frank Lavin discussed President Xi Jinping’s leadership as well as

On 10 April Charles Parton, a member of the Europe External Action

China’s social stability, economic prosperity and foreign policy. Lavin

Service mission in Beijing and long-time China-watcher gave a presen-

emphasised that notwithstanding Xi’s personalised style of leadership,

tation at Arundel House. The talk, chaired by Director of Transnational

the government’s agenda represented a consensus view among China’s

Threats and Political Risk Nigel Inkster, evaluated the implementation of

top officials, focusing especially on removing barriers to further eco-

President Xi Jinping’s reforms during his first two years in office. Parton

nomic development and reducing levels of corruption. He explained that

said that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) showed every prospect of

China’s foreign policy was carefully calibrated to avoid adventurism. This

being able to move forward its ambitious agenda for further economic

event was chaired by Nigel Inkster, Director of Transnational Threats and

development. He also felt it had the capacity, through its mastery of infor-

Political Risk.

mation technology, to manage and pre-empt social instability. However, the one challenge Parton felt the party might not be able to meet was that of environmental degradation, which could give rise to social breakdown.

UK Academic Network on International Cyber Security Workshop

A Revolution in Military Affairs with Chinese Characteristics: China’s Military Cyber and Information Warfare Capabilities

Satellite dishes in Shanghai (Flickr/Hugh) (Crown Copyright/Harland Quarrington)

In the fourth of a series of talks looking at different aspects of China’s cyber At Bloomsbury House, Director of Transnational Threats and Political Risk

policies and strategies, Director of Transnational Threats and Political Risk

Nigel Inkster chaired a 21 May meeting of the Foreign & Commonwealth

Nigel Inkster spoke at Arundel House on 19 May. The presentation focused

Office-sponsored UK academic network on cyber security. This initiative

on China’s use of cyber capabilities for military purposes, with a particular

brings together academics and other experts on cyber-security policy from

focus on Chinese concepts of information warfare. Inkster highlighted a

around the UK to debate issues of policy relevance to the UK government.

dichotomy between an official Chinese narrative of resorting to war only

The main item of discussion was the likelihood and implications of a frag-

for defensive purposes and the reality of a state that has always been pre-

mented internet. Such an arrangement could involve separate versions

pared to use armed force as a policy instrument when circumstances were

of the internet, one in which information flowed freely and one in which

favourable. This, he added, implied that in the event of conflict China’s

information flows were subject to strict government controls, existing side

military could be expected to utilise their cyber and information warfare

by side.

capabilities to the full to subdue an opponent.

IISS NEWS

JULY 2015 | 13

SOUTH ASIA

INDIA

PAKISTAN

EXPERTS

India’s Relations with its Smaller Non-Nuclear Neighbours: Continuity or Change with Prime Minister Modi?

On 27 April, senior Indian journalist and analyst Siddharth Varadarajan discussed India’s relations with neighbouring countries under Prime Minister Narendra Modi. He noted that Modi had invested an unprecedented amount of his time in nurturing links with smaller, non-nuclear neighbours such as Bhutan, Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka. This was

Prime Minister Modi during his visit to Bangladesh with Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina (narendramodi.in)

symbolically epitomised by his decision to invite regional leaders to his inauguration and to visit nearly all of India’s close neighbours (except

Meanwhile, Varadarajan added, the prime minister’s decisions regarding

the Maldives and Pakistan) within his first year in office. Varadarajan

Pakistan were still largely shaped by the need to prioritise India’s domestic

explained that Modi was keen to continue the process of shedding India’s

economic development and solve outstanding contentious issues through

‘big brother’ image in the region by taking advantage of the country’s

dialogue. This event was chaired by Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, Senior Fellow

rapid economic growth to help facilitate development in nearby nations.

for South Asia. Listen to the discussion online.

India’s Neighbourhood Policy in the First Year of the Modi Government stable, secure and peaceful neighbourhood, and provides a unique opportunity for India to help stabilise the region. But, he explained, current tensions with Pakistan are marked by the rise in violence across the Line of Control (LoC) dividing Kashmir, in the absence of an official bilateral dialogue for the last two years. Yet, after over a decade, an Indian prime ministerial visit to Pakistan is scheduled for late next year to attend the SAARC Summit. Roy-Chaudhury went on to say that although the likelihood of a conflict with China is extremely low, the possibility of local transgressions or major intrusions does exist. In March 2015 Modi unveiled a four-pronged vision for the Indian Ocean region, apparently driven by three goals: to counter China’s expanding influence in the Indian Ocean, to Pakistan’s first flight test of the Hatf IX ballistic missile (ISPR)

build and expand India’s security links with island states, and to maintain maritime dominance over the region. Yet, Roy-Chaudhury emphasised,

On 14 April, Senior Fellow for South Asia Rahul Roy-Chaudhury led an

the fulfilment of this vision would require a clear demonstration of

IISS-US discussion meeting outlining Indian Prime Minister Narendra

Indian leadership, amassing of requisite national resources and capacities

Modi’s neighbourhood policy. He said that Modi’s objective is the eco-

or deepened engagement with naval powers such as the US, Japan and

nomic development and political transformation of India, encompassing

Australia. Watch the discussion, chaired by IISS-US Managing Director

high economic growth and boosted foreign investment. This requires a

Bryce Campbell, here.

South Asia’s Emerging Nuclear Postures: Implications for Regional Stability

tion on regional stability, he argued that nuclear weapons had helped restore strategic stability in the region, as shown by the comparative outcomes of several military crises from the pre- and post-nuclearisation periods. He noted, however, that the introduction of short-range ballistic missiles and new ‘war-fighting’ doctrines under a nuclear environment have once again threatened regional stability. These challenges, he explained, were a result of new technological devel-

In a presentation at Arundel House on 20 May, IISS Visiting Fellow

opments combined with shifting political and institutional interests.

for South Asia (Strategic Affairs) Dr Adil Sultan spoke about the

The discussion, chaired by Senior Fellow for South Asia Rahul Roy-

national drivers that had led both India and Pakistan to develop their

Chaudhury, then focused on the future trajectory of India-Pakistan

nuclear-weapons capabilities. Highlighting the impact of nuclearisa-

relations.

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IISS NEWS

EXPERTS

IISS–US

FOREIGN POLICY

SOUTH ASIA

Domestic Pressures Driving India’s Foreign and Security Policy The most important factors in policy formulation are the nature of Indian democracy and the Indian Constitution envisaging a federal polity, argued former Chief of India’s Research & Analysis Wing K.C. Verma in a speech at Arundel House. He stressed that the union and state governments must work in tandem and in harmony. Yet electoral politics and political compulsions also affect security and foreign policies, with the need to retain a majority in the Indian parliament sometimes forcing the ruling party, or

Delhi Government buildings, India (Flickr/Mike Smuts)

the ruling coalition, to make compromises on foreign policy. Verma noted that India’s policy towards Sri Lanka sometimes seems to be determined

across the subcontinent on India’s foreign policy, the formulation of which

by the Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu, rather than the Ministry of External

is naturally shaped by a consideration of the ethnic groups residing in con-

Affairs. Similarly, a number of issues between India and Bangladesh have

tiguous areas of neighbouring countries. This event took place on 10 June

remained unresolved due to the mercurial Chief Minister of the state of

and was chaired by Senior Fellow for South Asia Rahul Roy-Chaudhury.

West Bengal. Verma also highlighted the effect of the spread of populations

Listen to the discussion on the IISS website.

MYANMAR

The Vatican’s New Foreign Policy: From Russia to Cuba

RUSSIA

VATICAN

EVENTS

Sino-Burmese Ties under Fire: Red Herring or a Sign of Myanmar Rebalancing?

Shan State Army soldiers (Flickr/Prachatal)

Hervé Lemahieu, Research Associate for Political Economy and Security, Pope Francis meets President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin (Getty/ Vatican)

addressed the state of Sino-Burmese ties in a discussion meeting held at Arundel House on 21 April. Since February, sustained clashes between ‘pro-Chinese’ rebels and the Myanmar military in northeast Shan State

On 12 May, Monsignor Antonio Mennini, the Apostolic Nuncio to the

have resulted in one of the largest refugee crises on China’s borders since

United Kingdom, and Massimo Franco, author and political columnist

the 1979 Sino-Vietnamese War. To complicate matters, Myanmar mili-

for Corriere della Sera, shared their views on the reach, objectives and

tary airstrikes strayed into Chinese territory, prompting China’s Central

relative success of the Vatican’s foreign policy. Director of Studies Adam

Military Commission to warn of retaliatory measures in March. Lemahieu

Ward chaired the discussion, which was held at Arundel House. As the

argued that border dynamics feed directly into mutual suspicions and a

first pontiff from the Southern Hemisphere, Pope Francis has consciously

sense of strategic vulnerability in Beijing and Naypyidaw. Beijing’s pos-

broken with the tradition of a Eurocentric Vatican. In addition, after years

ture also reflects a deep ambivalence towards the political and security

of Vatican politics dominated by internal ructions and scandal, his pon-

dynamics at work in Myanmar, as well as a fear that China has lost its rela-

tificate has coincided with the Vatican’s re-emergence as a master of soft

tive influence and standing there amid the country’s political transition.

power in the international arena. This has allowed the Holy See to exercise

Yet, against this background, he posited that the border flare-up is neither

significant sway in the normalisation of ties between Cuba and the United

an unprecedented turning point in bilateral ties, nor necessarily a sign of

States. However, it also helps explain the Vatican’s reticence in taking sides

a wider re-calibration in regional geopolitics. This event was chaired by

on the Ukraine crisis, where it has sought to quietly leverage its ties with

Alexander Nicoll, Senior Fellow for Geo-economics and Defence. Watch

Russia to lend support to the Minsk II agreement.

the video of the discussion here.

IISS NEWS

JULY 2015 | 15

GEO-ECONOMICS AND STRATEGY

IISS–MIDDLE EAST

EXPERTS

Bahrain India Forum 2015, New Delhi, 6 April 2015 The Geo-economics and Strategy Programme and the Bahrain Economic Development Board (EDB) jointly hosted the Bahrain India Forum (BIF) in New Delhi on 6 April. The meeting opened with a keynote address

by Dr S. Jaishankar, India’s Foreign Secretary. Dr Jaishankar situated India’s relations with West Asia in the broader context of the country’s geo-economic and geopolitical interests in the wider Indian Ocean region. He emphasised India’s commitment to greater regional coopera-

Dr S. Jaishankar, India’s Foreign Secretary

tion within Southern Asia. He also noted that India had good relations with the Gulf countries and was committed to maintaining regional sta-

economic dimension, with security cooperation increasing in an effort to

bility, combatting terrorism and piracy and responding to local natural

secure regional stability.

disasters.

Participants from the IISS included John Jenkins, Sanjaya Baru,

The forum examined the changing dynamics of Gulf–Asia economic

Emile Hokayem, Hassan Al Rayes, Mahmood Abdulla and Imran Khan.

and diplomatic links, as well as shifts in the demographics, labour-market

Participants from Bahrain included Sheikh Mohammed bin Essa Al Khalifa,

trends and business opportunities associated with each region. Speakers

Political and Economic Advisor to HRH Crown Prince’s Court, Bahrain;

emphasised the importance of strong and continuing economic and dip-

Jarmo Kotilaine, Chief Economist, Bahrain EDB; Ausamah bin Abdullah

lomatic connections between Bahrain and India. They suggested that the

Al Absi, CEO, Labour Market Regulatory Authority, Bahrain. Participants

ongoing transformation of Gulf economies, now focused on diversifying

from India included Didar Singh, Secretary-General, Federation of Indian

away from oil, offered new and significant opportunities for greater eco-

Chambers of Commerce and Industry; Deepak Premnarayen, Co-Chair,

nomic engagement between the two countries.

CII Gulf & MEWANA, Confederation of Indian Industry, India; Dr Mohan

In their luncheon addresses, Khalid Al Rumaihi, CEO of Bahrain EDB, and Anil Wadhwa, Secretary (East), Indian Ministry of External Affairs, highlighted the fact that Gulf–India relations had a key political as well as

Kumar, Indian Ambassador to Bahrain; and Professor P.R. Kumaraswamy, Middle East Institute, Jawaharlal Nehru University.

View transcripts on the IISS website.

EXPERTS

DEFENCE AND MILITARY ANALYSIS

Expert Workshop – Perspectives on Hybrid Warfare On 23 June, the Defence and Military Analysis Programme in collaboration with the German Ministry of Defence held a high-level workshop in Berlin to discuss and analyse questions regarding hybrid warfare and the changing character of conflict. The event brought together more than 80 leading international and German policymakers and experts, including German Defence Minister Ursula von der Leyen, in support of the drafting process for the new White Paper on Security Policy and the Future of the Armed Forces.

Keynote speaker General Knud Bartels, Chairman of the Military Committee, NATO, explored the role of the military in national and multinational responses to hybrid threats. Hybrid warfare was designed to

Ursula von der Leyen, Federal Minister of Defence, Germany, and General Knud Bartels, Chairman of the Military Committee, NATO (Thomas Trutschel)

corrode state power, he explained, with the intent of a hybrid aggressor being to remain under the radar of a response threshold. This, he argued,

Three discussion sessions followed General Bartel’s speech, the first

is a strategy for a weaker adversary. Bartels noted that currently the West

of which analysed the changing character of war in the context of hybrid

was confronted by two different hybrid models: the Russian model, in

threats. The second panel examined the impact of hybrid warfare on

which military capabilities serve as a backdrop; and the ISIS model, which

NATO, the OSCE and Middle Eastern states. The final session looked at

had created instability on the southern border of the Alliance. He stressed,

the role of strategic communication in formulating responses to a range of

however, that other hybrid models were entirely possible. He concluded

hybrid challenges. The advancement of ISIS in Iraq and Syria and Russian

that the military contribution to countering hybrid threats should focus on

aggression in Ukraine were identified as two key contemporary hybrid

strong intelligence, capable command and control and large reserves and

threats.

formations like the NATO Response Force.

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Read the full workshop report on the IISS website.

IISS NEWS

UKRAINE

DEFENCE ECONOMICS

DEFENCE POLICY

MEMBERSHIP

DEFENCE AND MILITARY ANALYSIS

The Military Balance 2015: US Launch Following launch events in London, Berlin and Brussels, members of the Institute’s Defence and Military Analysis Programme travelled to Washington DC on 21 April to present key findings from The Military Balance 2015 to a US audience. Dr Bastian Giegerich, Director of Defence and Military Analysis, James Hackett, Senior Fellow for Defence and Military Analysis and Editor of The Military Balance, Brigadier (Retd) Ben Barry, Senior Fellow for Land Warfare, Douglas Barrie, Senior Fellow for Military Aerospace, and Giri Rajendran, Research Associate for Defence and Economics, spoke at the event organised at the Institute’s US office. Of particular interest to the audience were trends in European defence spending and issues surrounding Russia’s attempts to modernise its armed forces. In addition to the event, the team used to trip to Washington to engage members of the strategic community on current and upcoming research priorities and briefed a variety of strategic part-

US Air Force C-130 Hercules in Germany during a NATO-led exercise (Damon Kasberg/US Air Force)

ners.

The Military Balance 2015 is packed with defence facts and objec-

directed energy weapons, and hybrid warfare, while this year’s wall chart

tive analysis, as well as charts, graphics and maps supporting the trends

carries analysis of Russia’s military modernisation process and selected

outlined in the book. Specialist essays focus on: military space systems,

force dispositions. Watch the launch here.

Members’ Event – Key Security Corporate Breakfast Briefing – and Defence Issues for the New UK Two unforeseen wars: a military Government analysis of the conflict in Ukraine and the campaign against ISIS

UK Royal Navy destroyer HMS Defender and RAF Typhoons during a training exercise (Crown Copyright/Caroline Davies)

On 18 May, shortly after the May 2015 UK general election, a team of IISS

Pro-Russia forces during an exercise near Mariupol (Shutterstock)

experts presented their assessment of the key defence and security challenges for the new UK government. They considered the strategic context

Last year’s Russian occupation of Crimea, the subsequent insurgency in

of the forthcoming Strategic Defence and Security Review, including the

eastern Ukraine and the rapid conquest of much of northern and western

threats from international and domestic terrorism, the UK defence budget

Iraq by ISIS were all strategic shocks. But there is now enough reporting

and the equipment plans of the UK armed forces. The central problem –

on the conflicts to allow a preliminary analysis of their military contours,

that the previous five years had seen the concurrent reduction of the UK

including the similarities and differences between the two wars.

force structure, whilst the threats to the UK and its interests had risen

On 23 June, Brigadier Ben Barry, IISS Senior Fellow for Land Warfare

– was discussed in both the plenary session and in the stimulating discus-

presented the key contours and military dynamics of both the Ukrainian

sion that followed. Watch the video.

conflict and the ISIS insurgency, while examining the emerging military

The IISS also recently published a Strategic Comment on this topic, which is available here.

IISS NEWS

lessons of the conflicts. He also assessed the challenges that both types of hybrid conflicts posed for the US, NATO and their allies.

JULY 2015 | 17

RUSSIA–EURASIA

UKRAINE

EXPERTS

RUSSIA

Russia and the West: A New Cold War? argued. According to him, NATO would have few options: reduce reliance on nuclear weapons and try to fight with conventional military power alone or to retaliate with strategic nuclear weapons.

As a result, NATO needs a new strategic concept that places an overriding emphasis on collective defence, Kroenig asserted. On the low end, this strategy would include a declaratory policy on ‘little green men’ appearing in the Baltics and bolstering eastern European defences. On the high end, the strategy would need to deter Russian nuclear de-escalatory strikes and nuclear brinkmanship.

NATO forces practise amphibious assault near Ustka, Poland as part of BALTOPS 2015 exercise (NATO)

Shapiro argued that the current trajectory toward a ‘New Cold War’ is overwhelmingly negative. Many people remember the original Cold War almost nostalgically, as a time of strategic certainty, he explained. However,

On 15 April, the IISS–US hosted a conversation entitled ‘Russia and the West:

the original Cold War was enormously expensive; gave the US the ‘baleful

A New Cold War?’ with the authors of two recent Survival articles. Chaired

political legacy of McCarthyism’; bequeathed the military-industrial com-

by Dana Allin, IISS Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy and Transatlantic

plex; and, most importantly, was incredibly damaging globally, fomenting

Affairs and Editor of Survival, the panel featured Matthew Kroenig, Senior

proxy civil wars throughout the world.

Fellow, Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security, Atlantic Council

According to him, today’s nuclear balance would likely be less stable:

and author of ‘Facing Reality: Getting NATO Ready for a New Cold War’

the Russian early warning system is mostly ‘fiction’, he contended, and

in the February/March 2015 edition of Survival; and Jeremy Shapiro, Fellow,

the US has been dramatically upgrading strategic nuclear forces, leading

Foreign Policy Program, The Brookings Institution and Samuel Charap,

Russian strategists to believe that the Washington is trying to generate a

IISS Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia, co-authors of ‘Consequences of a

credible first-strike capability.

New Cold War’ in the April/May 2015 edition of Survival.

‘Should the New Cold War dynamic escalate,’ explained Charap,

With the threat to Europe diminished after the Cold War, Kroenig

‘Ukraine stands to suffer the most.’ He said that its economy is in ‘tatters’

explained, NATO had reoriented towards other global priorities while

as it faced a large GDP contraction and high inflation last year. Because

trying to engage with Russia as a strategic partner. Following the events in

the Donbas region accounts for a large proportion of Ukraine’s economic

Ukraine last year, however, NATO was forced to refocus back to Europe,

capacity, the situation is likely to get worse should the conflict drag on.

while ceasing all cooperative initiatives with Moscow. Kroenig said that

Charap said that a New Cold War would also destabilise Europe, high-

Russia has challenged NATO on two levels of conflict: at the low end,

lighting reports that Russia has financed anti-systemic parties in the EU,

through ‘hybrid’ tactics that do not necessarily trigger a conventional mili-

abducted an Estonian security officially, and pushed brinkmanship in the

tary response, and the high end, by deterring intervention through threats

skies to dangerous levels.

A protracted conflict would become a drain on finite US military and

to early escalation to nuclear warfare.

‘What if Russia tried the same strategy it used in Ukraine against a

diplomatic resources, explained Charap. Washington has already spent

NATO member like Estonia or Latvia?’ Kroenig asked. For years, Russian

$1 billion on its ‘European Reassurance Initiative’ – which would likely

strategists have been discussing ‘de-escalatory nuclear strikes’. According

be just a ‘down payment’ for future investments – while diverting atten-

to Kroenig, these strategists understand that Russia cannot defeat NATO

tion from other strategic priorities, like the Asia-Pacific. Moreover, Charap

in conventional conflict, so they would escalate to nuclear use in a limited

said that these tensions will not be contained to one region. He posited

way. Then, hoping that NATO would not ‘have the stomach’ for full-scale

that should the New Cold War continue to intensify, Russia could act as a

nuclear war, Western leaders would sue for peace on terms favorable to

spoiler to US policy around the world. This could take the form of vetoes in

Moscow. As such, if war broke out, there is the real threat that Russia

the UN Security Council or collusion with China on regional security issues.

would use tactical nuclear weapons to temper NATO’s response, Kroenig

EVENTS

FOREIGN POLICY

Watch the video online.

MEMBERSHIP

Religion and Values in US Foreign Policy

been a consistent shaping factor in the conduct of US foreign relations, and that it has received insufficient historiographical emphasis. He focused, by way of illustration, on William McKinley’s famous prayer for guidance on the status of the Philippines in 1898; questions from the floor ranged from the role of religion in the 2003 invasion of Iraq to the role of non-Christian

On 8 June Arundel House hosted Dr Andrew Preston, Reader in American

religious communities in American political life. The meeting was organ-

History at Clare College, Cambridge and author of Sword of the Spirit, Shield

ised by the IISS Corporate and External Relations team and was chaired

of Faith: Religion in American War and Diplomacy, for a discussion on religion

by Dr Matthew Harries, Managing Editor of Survival and IISS Research

and values in US foreign policy. Dr Preston made the case that religion has

Fellow, before an audience of current and prospective IISS members.

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IISS NEWS

EXPERTS

DEFENCE

IISS–US

NON-PROLIFERATION

IRAN

NON-PROLIFERATION AND DISARMAMENT

Workshop: The Conventional Military Balance on the Korean Peninsula On the sidelines of the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue held in Singapore on 29–31 May, the IISS organised a workshop at which participants discussed recent security developments on the Korean Peninsula. These included North Korea’s increasingly belligerent nuclear rhetoric, and the conventional military capabilities of both the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea and the Republic of Korea. The workshop brought together nearly 30 participants from seven different countries, including members of governments, academia and representatives of the media. Findings, influenced by the discussions, will be published in an online report later this year.

South Korean soldiers during a military parade in Seoul, South Korea (DoD/Erin A. Kirk-Cuomo)

Assessing an Iran Nuclear Deal At a 20 May event at Arundel House, Mark Fitzpatrick, Director of the Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Programme, weighed the political and strategic ramifications of the framework Iranian nuclear agreement reached in Lausanne on 2 April. He also discussed the key technical and diplomatic issues involved. Fitzpatrick highlighted the fact that the agreement was significantly more detailed than most observers had expected, and that it met the goals of E3+3 negotiators while allowing Iran to preserve its dignity. The framework was, of course, the starting point for drafting a comprehensive deal and, consequently, several issues remained unresolved. Chief among them was sanctions relief, the so-called possible military dimensions of Iran’s nuclear programme and access to its mili-

US Secretary of State John Kerry and Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif meet in Lausanne, Switzerland (US Mission in Geneva/Eric Bridiers)

tary sites. Both sides were fairly far apart on those issues but Fitzpatrick remained optimistic that these differences could be resolved and a final

Iranian hardliners tried to influence the process with indirect provocations

agreement would be reached this summer. However, he suggested that

or if US or Israeli hardliners attempted to kill the deal, either intentionally

three factors could derail the negotiations: if Iran overplayed its hand, if

or unintentionally through ‘improvements’.

The Strategic Implications of the Iran Nuclear Deal Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Programme Director Mark Fitzpatrick and Founder and President of the National Iranian American Council Dr Trita Parsi engaged in a vibrant discussion of the Iran nuclear issue and its strategic implications at IISS-US on 4 June. Fitzpatrick argued that there is a very good chance that a deal will be reached, but not by the 30 June deadline. In support of his argument, Fitzpatrick highlighted how invested both sides are in the deal, stressing that many important compromises have already been reached by Iran and Western powers. Moreover, he noted that ‘Almost all of America’s allies and friends around the world really want an Iran nuclear deal.’

Parsi emphasised the usefulness of diplomacy, remarking that it would be a ‘game changer’ if both Iran and the US could cease using their

Iranian heavy-water production facility at Arak, south of Tehran (iStock)

resources and political capital against each other. Both Fitzpatrick and Parsi concluded on positive notes, with Fitzpatrick suggesting that greater trust

that the deal would give the US greater ability to deal with other strategic

would be built if Iran implements the deal for 15 years and Parsi positing

issues in the Middle East region. Watch the event here.

IISS NEWS

JULY 2015 | 19

SECURITY AND DEVELOPMENT

VENEZUELA

COLOMBIA

Organised Crime, Militias and the Crisis in Venezuela

WAR CRIMES

EXPERTS

ment. The event was chaired by Antônio Sampaio, Research Associate for Security and Development.

According to Lansberg-Rodriguez, the crisis within ‘chavismo’ (the revolutionary movement built by former leader Hugo Chavez) and the prospect of a defeat in legislative elections in December has had a unifying effect on the ruling elite. Despite the government’s declining popularity, the ruling party (United Socialist Party of Venezuela, PSUV) is united behind President Nicolas Maduro.

Allegations of involvement in organised crime at the highest levels of government have affected powerful figures in Venezuela. National Assembly Speaker Diosdado Cabello was cited by media reports in the US and Spain as being suspected of involvement in cocaine trafficking and money laundering. An opposition victory in December, said LansbergRodriguez, could lead to influential figures such as Cabello losing their immunity to extradition.

Street protest in Caracas, Venezuela (Shutterstock)

The Venezuelan ruling elite’s sense of vulnerability is contributing to a tense environment in the lead-up to elections. After all, government forces

A discussion meeting at Arundel House on 23 June analysed the factors

have fiercely repressed past opposition protests (with the most violent

leading to the destabilisation of Venezuela. Daniel Lansberg-Rodriguez,

wave taking place in February last year). Pro-government militias also

a weekly columnist for Venezuelan daily El Nacional and adjunct profes-

pose a threat, added Lansberg-Rodriguez, given that not even the govern-

sor at Northwestern University, provided an overview of the political and

ment has control over them.

security dynamics undermining the popularity of the current govern-

Listen to the discussion here.

The Road to Peace in Colombia: Illegal Economies and Armed Groups On 26 March, a panel of experts discussed the developmental obstacles

noting that the lines separating guerrilla groups and criminals are some-

facing rural Colombia, as well as the challenges posed by illegal econo-

times blurred. Palma explained that guerrilla fighters are motivated by

mies in such regions. The event featured Dr Oscar Palma, Director of the

money and power, adding that the control they have over communi-

Observatory on Security and Transnational Crime at Universidad del

ties and activities such as illegal mining, extortion and drug trafficking

Rosario; Kristian Herbolzheimer, Director of Colombia and Philippines at

presents a potential demobilisation process at risk. The speakers agreed

Conciliation Resources; and Dr Annette Idler, Director of Studies at the

that the challenges that would follow a peace agreement, especially

Changing Character of War Programme at the University of Oxford.

that of bringing a state presence to rural regions, would demand vast

Idler highlighted the informal agreement between guerrillas, criminal actors and local communities in isolated parts of rural Colombia,

investment in areas that have historically been peripheral to Colombian politics.

The Road to Ending Sexual Violence in Conflict On 14 April, Research Fellow for Security and Development Virginia Comolli hosted Professor Christine Chinkin, Director of the Centre for Women, Peace and Security, at Arundel House. The centre is based at the London School of Economics and aims to improve academic knowledge concerning sexual violence in conflict and contribute to global efforts to address the culture of impunity. Professor Chinkin discussed the international law frameworks pertinent to the UN Women, Peace and Security

Abu Shouk IDP Camp Women’s Centre, in North Darfur, Sudan (UN/Albert Gonzalez Farran)

agenda as well as the aims and mission of the centre and its relationship

experience conflict differently as a result of their gender and that sexual

with the UK government’s Preventing Sexual Violence Initiative (PSVI),

violence can take many forms, displaying no common pattern. She was

launched by William Hague in 2012.

adamant that there was no need for new legislation on the issue, instead

Professor Chinkin emphasised the importance of addressing the issues of gender identity and masculinity in trying to tackle violence against women. She emphasised the need to acknowledge that men and women

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JULY 2015

calling for more robust enforcement and implementation of existing frameworks.

Listen to the discussion here.

IISS NEWS

EXPERTS

TERRORISM AND SECURITY

DRUGS TRADE

SYRIA

SECURITY AND DEVELOPMENT

Four Years into the Syrian Conflict: Humanitarian Challenges and the ICRC Response Robert Mardini, Head of Operations for the Near and Middle East at the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) participated in an offthe-record discussion chaired by Virginia Comolli on 24 April. Drawing on the ICRC’s 40-year presence in the Middle East region as a major humanitarian-aid provider, Mr Mardini presented his analysis of the ongoing conflict in Syria and provided an update on the security and humanitarian situation in Iraq, Yemen and Gaza. He focused particularly on how the ICRC responded to the ever-evolving challenges posed by regional crises as the organisation implements its mandate to protect and assist people in need. He also emphasised the interconnected nature of various ongoing conflicts and the ramifications that the Syrian conflict in particular was having for neighbouring countries such as Iraq and Lebanon.

An ICRC team, accompanied by the Syrian Arab Red Crescent, in Aleppo, Syria (ICRC/ SARC)

Improving Global Drug Policy: Comparative Perspectives and UNGASS 2016 At a discussion co-chaired by Director of Transnational Threats and Political Risk Nigel Inkster and Executive Director of the International Drug Policy Consortium Ann Fordham, a panel of experts presented a number of case studies at the core of a recent report by The Brookings Institution.

The panellists discussed the design and implementation of drug policies worldwide, from the most stringent to the more harm-reduction oriented, in the lead-up to the 2016 Special Session of the UN General Assembly on

US forces secure a drug-smuggling vessel in the Gulf of Aden as part of the Combined Task Force (Matthew Bash/US Navy)

the World Drug Problem (UNGASS 2016). They also examined the varying problems stemming from the drug trade, from widespread violence to high

The panel, convened on 19 June, featured Caroline Chatwin, Senior

incidence of HIV. The report emphasised the need to focus on reducing the

Lecturer in Criminology at the University of Kent; Martin Jelsma, Director

violence that surrounds the drug trade, as well as the overall demand for

of the Drugs and Democracy Programme at the Transnational Institute;

narcotics. It also highlighted the benefits of approaches aimed at address-

Vanda Felbab-Brown, Senior Fellow and Co-Director of Improving Global

ing socio-economic problems as opposed to more law enforcement-driven

Drug Policy: Comparative Perspectives & UNGASS 2016 at The Brookings

strategies. Finally, the report stressed the importance of avoiding the stig-

Institution; and James Windle, Senior Lecturer in Criminology and

matisation and punishment of drug users.

Criminal Justice at the University of East London. Watch the video.

Boko Haram: Nigeria’s Islamist Insurgency On 17 June, Research Fellow for Security and Development Virginia Comolli launched her book Boko Haram: Nigeria’s Islamist Insurgency (London: Hurst Publishers, 2015) at an event chaired by Nigel Inkster, Director of Transnational Threats and Political Risk. The book, based on extensive field and desk research, puts forward three key arguments. Firstly, the emergence of Boko Haram fell within a well-established pattern in northern Nigeria whereby violent religious extremists exploit economic and political marginalisation to attract followers. Comolli argues that the exclusively military approach adopted by various Nigerian administrations has done nothing to address underlying grievances, thereby hindering chances for sustainable peace. Secondly, the group’s tactical trajectory has to be understood in parallel to government responses. Indeed, the brutality of the latter has helped fuel the insurgency and escalate levels of violence. Thirdly, Boko Haram is a highly resilient group, as demonstrated by its ability to switch operational environments, adopt new tactics and widely diversify its funding base.

This trait means that successes by security forces can quickly be reversed unless pressure continues to be exerted on the militants and a more comprehensive strategy is implemented. Watch the video.

IISS NEWS

Boko Haram

JULY 2015 | 21

IISS–MIDDLE EAST

IRAN

SAUDI ARABIA

MIDDLE EAST YEMEN

The Campaign against ISIS: Assessment and Prospects

EXPERTS

Strange Bedfellows: Shifting Alliances in the Middle East

US Navy Hawkeye aircraft takes off from USS George H.W. Bush in the Persian Gulf while supporting operations in Iraq and Syria (Brian Stephens/US Navy)

On 21 April, Senior Fellow for Middle East Security Emile Hokayem pro-

Yemeni separatist fighters in Aden, Yemen (Getty/Saleh Al-Obeidi)

vided an assessment of the campaign against the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) to an audience at Arundel House. Hokayem cautioned

Executive Director of IISS-Middle East Sir John Jenkins and Senior Fellow

that despite setbacks like the capture of Tikrit by Iraqi security forces and

for Middle East Security Emile Hokayem spoke at the IISS-US on 28 April

militiamen backed by US airpower, ISIS remained an agile and resilient

about the current security dynamics in the Middle East. Sir John analysed

organisation. He noted that the group sought to maintain a sense of bat-

the growing regional disorder, emphasising the lack of inherent balance in

tlefield dynamism, shifting its focus to Ramadi soon after losing Tikrit.

the Middle Eastern system. He also examined how states in the region are

He also warned that the international community’s Iraq-first approach

adapting with difficulty to the range of transnational and state challenges,

was allowing ISIS to expand its territorial hold in Syria. The international

stressing how political actors increasingly leverage identity politics and

coalition’s strategy remained inadequate, he added, often clashing with

how this gradually constrains policy options. In turn, Hokayem looked at

the preferences and behaviour of local actors. For example, he explained,

regional politics through the prism of the two coalitions conducting mili-

Kurdish forces in Iraq and Syria appeared more interested in capturing

tary operations in the Middle East. The US-led anti-ISIS campaign, he said,

territory and establishing strong defensive positions than rooting out ISIS

suffers from internal disagreements on strategy and tactics and uncom-

from Sunni-dominated areas. Similarly, Shia militias in Iraq prioritised the

fortably aligns the US with Iran on the Iraqi battlefield. Meanwhile, he

building of a buffer region around Baghdad over the retaking of Mosul.

explained, the coalition assembled by Saudi Arabia to roll back the Houthi

Professor Toby Dodge, IISS Consulting Senior Fellow for the Middle East,

expansion in Yemen is also hampered by strategic as well as operational

moderated the discussion, which is available to watch here.

disagreements. Watch a video of the event on the IISS website.

Shifting Balance of Power in the Middle East?

On 4 May, IISS-Middle East Executive Director Sir John Jenkins and Senior Fellow for Middle East Security Emile Hokayem spoke at the Princeton Club in New York. Discussing Middle Eastern geopolitics, both speakers emphasised the importance of the diplomacy surrounding Iran’s nuclear programme in shaping the preferences, posture and behaviour of the other regional powers – notably Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Israel. They noted that the weakening Arab state system has created space for Iranian influence

The aftermath of explosions in Sana’a, Yemen (AFP/Getty/Mohammed Huwais)

and activity, which regional actors are concerned the nuclear negotiations will not roll back. As a result, they explained, local states increasingly

diate neighbourhood, as Saudi Arabia is attempting to do in Yemen. This

behave independently from US preferences and seek to secure their imme-

discussion was hosted by Rick Grove, CEO of Rutter Associates.

The Expansion of ISIS in a Regional Context

Iraq and Syria. Hokayem noted that the cap-

formance, he added. In Iraq, the fall of Ramadi

ture of Ramadi in Iraq and Palmyra in Syria are

has further weakened the central government

reminders that ISIS remains a potent organisa-

and emboldened Shia militias and Kurdish

tion with enduring appeal and resilience. These

aspirations, while in Syria, ISIS gains threaten

In a corporate webinar presented on 8 June,

events also highlight that the international coali-

the successes of the rebellion against the Assad

Senior Fellow for Middle East Security Emile

tion’s anti-ISIS strategy is riddled with strategic

regime. The webinar was moderated by Dr

Hokayem discussed the expansion of ISIS in

and operational flaws that affect its overall per-

Nicholas Redman, Director of Editorial.

22

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JULY 2015

IISS NEWS

PUBLICATIONS

The Armed Conflict Survey 2015: Press Launch On 20 May the inaugural edition of The Armed Conflict Survey was launched at Arundel House.

This publication analyses armed conflicts around the world based on data drawn from the Armed Conflict Database, and also contains essays addressing the evolution of global jihadism, countering hybrid

US Air Force staff interview a family in front of their burned home in Djibouti (US Navy/Jesse B. Awalt)

warfare, crime and conflict, displacement in armed conflict and

A separate launch of The Armed Conflict Survey took place in Singapore on

peace operations, and the respon-

30 May on the margins of the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue.

sibility to protect. Key findings

The Members’ launch of The Armed Conflict Survey will take place on

included the fact that while the

Wednesday 15 July 2015. Several of the book’s authors and other experts

number of global conflicts was dropping, the levels of casualties and popu-

will discuss its major conclusions. Copies will be available on the day at an

lation displacement generated by existing conflicts were inexorably rising.

introductory discount.

Survival: Global Politics and Strategy

Shangri-La Dialogue Publications Programme The IISS has published a series of books based on themes relevant to the discussions at the Dialogue. For more details see page 12.

Appointments The IISS welcomes the following:

In the June–July 2015 issue of Survival, James Fromson and Steven Simon describe ISIS as an Robert Jackman

army, sect, cult and state, and prescribe a strat-

Outreach Manager, Corporate and External

egy of aggressive containment; Ariel I. Ahram

Relations

discusses ISIS’s use of sexual violence; Erik

Nick Childs

Jones compares scenarios of Greek exit from

Senior Fellow for Naval Forces and

Adam Gibson

the euro and British exit from the EU; Aaron

Maritime Security

Corporate and External Relations

L. Friedberg outlines the American debate

Administrator

over strategy towards China; Michael Krepon argues that nuclear weapons are not stabilis-

Imran Hussain IT Systems Administrator Farshid Siddiqi

Svetlana Fedosova

ing; Pierre Hassner reviews four recent books

Membership Officer, Corporate and

on the crisis of human rights; Paul Cornish

External Relations

explores the dilemmas of state sovereignty in cyberspace; Alexander Lanoszka interro-

Junior Accounts Assistant Paulina Izewicz

Deborah Mitchell

gates the concept of ‘free riding’; and Mark

Business Analyst

Fitzpatrick assesses the Lausanne accord on Iran’s nuclear programme.

Research Analyst

IISS NEWS

For details of how to contact the IISS >

JULY 2015 | 23