IISS Newsletter December 2014

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December 2014

IISS Manama Dialogue . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

Defence and Military Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

IISS India Global Forum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

Security and Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

8th IISS–NESA Oman 2014 Conference . . . . . . . 12

IISS–Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

South Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

Non-Proliferation and Disarmament . . . . . . . . . 20

Key Address . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

Membership . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

Discussion Meeting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

IISS–US . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21

Transnational Threats and Political Risk . . . . . . 15

Publications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

The 10th IISS Manama Dialogue 2014

Prince Salman Bin Hamad Al Khalifa

The dramatic territorial gains in Iraq and Syria made

eration with the governments of Iran and Syria, and

ming from historic differences, the apportioning of

by the terrorist grouping that calls itself the ‘Islamic

even the grouping Hezbollah, in order to secure the

blame for the region’s current problems, and the

State’ in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) framed the debate

ground forces capable of inflicting a decisive defeat

plague of sectarianism.

at the 10th Manama Dialogue, held in Bahrain on

on ISIS. Others, however, were adamant that the

The Crown Prince of Bahrain, Prince Salman bin

5–7 December 2014. The Regional Security Summit

immediacy of the ISIS threat should not cause a

Hamad Al Khalifa, addressed the Dialogue’s open-

brought together senior government and military

shift in their well-established positions regarding

ing dinner with a call for the region and its friends

officials, national-security practitioners, political

the legitimacy of the Assad regime in Syria, and

to move beyond the ‘war on terror’. Today’s chal-

analysts and journalists from the Middle East, Asia,

the terms on which the Iranian nuclear negotiations

lenge, he argued, was to fight a ‘war on theocrats’.

Europe and North America.

could be brought to a satisfactory conclusion.

Thus began a weekend of high-level discussion trying to make sense of a Middle East facing mul-

Delegates reflected on three crises in particu-

As ever, the need to clarify and strengthen the

lar: the multifaceted threat that ISIS posed to the

regional political order attracted much attention.

region; Syria’s civil war; and the ongoing stand-

The desire for progress –which has motivated the

Solutions to the problems of regional order

off over the Iranian nuclear question. In all three

IISS over the course of the last decade to bring

will remain the topic of meetings to come. But this

cases, the Dialogue grappled with the nature of the

together 54 foreign ministers, 16 defence ministers,

Manama Dialogue was also notable for a landmark

threats at hand, their causes and the appropriate

38 chiefs of defence staff and hundreds of leading

in strengthening international support for regional

response. Much of the debate focused on whether

non-governmental analysts – was expressed by

security: namely, the announcement of an agree-

the rise of ISIS—which many delegates referred to

several regional leaders. These are problems whose

ment to put the UK naval presence in Bahrain

using the pejorative label Daesh—changed the cal-

effects cross borders, and which cannot be solved

– and thus ‘east of Suez’, as The Secretary of State

culus regarding the other two security crises. Some

without the cooperation of all regional states. Yet

for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs, Philip

delegates mooted the possibility of pragmatic coop-

there remains a palpable sense of distrust, stem-

Hammond, noted – on a permanent footing.

tiple crises, many confessional in nature.

MANAMA DIALOGUE

GULF STATES

MIDDLE EAST

FOREIGN POLICY

‘a unified GCC, an integrating Yemen, a stable Iraq and a friendly Iran’. Those four conditions, Chipman said, appeared uncertain then and remain fleeting now. Nevertheless, the Manama Dialogue has in its first ten years given a platform for policy announcements, an occasion for high-level discussion and an opportunity to engage all relevant states simultaneously. It has helped to make the regional security debate more transparent and direct, as well as becoming the venue at which the strategic pulse of the region can most accurately be taken.

Today, there is intense diplomatic activity to determine whether a collective approach can be fashioned to meet the multiplying security problems. Ungoverned spaces have widened, and newly governed spaces are under the control of unimaginably dangerous people, Chipman Prince Salman Bin Hamad Al Khalifa

Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS

stated. Sectarian politics have assumed a geopolitical shape, while regional competition for leadership has intensified.

Predicting that we will be fighting ‘these

The issues raised at the Manama Dialogue,

Speaking at the opening dinner, the Crown

theocrats’ for a very long time, the Crown

Chipman added, demand proper analytical

Prince expressed satisfaction and pride at the

Prince said the question is whether ‘we have

treatment. To help address this, the IISS-Middle

accomplishments of the ten-year period of coop-

the courage and the moral and intellectual

East office will from January 2015 be led by a

eration between Bahrain and the IISS. Noting

integrity to call them out for what they are’.

new Executive Director, Sir John Jenkins, who

that he was not giving a keynote speech as such,

They are people who disregard human life

currently serves as UK Ambassador to Saudi

he wanted to leave one important thought with

and the social order and social contracts upon

Arabia and previously led UK diplomatic mis-

delegates, concerning the naming of the prin-

which human society is established. They are

sions to Libya, Iraq and Syria. Sir John will

cipal threat facing the region. To state we are

people who oppress women and slaughter

deepen IISS relations with regional govern-

engaged in a war on terrorism does not capture

anyone who does not ‘subscribe to their own

ments and the private sector, and under his

the ‘totality of our conflict, or of our strategic

twisted ideology’. While politics may be a

leadership IISS-Middle East will contribute to

direction or threat. Terrorism is merely the tool...

motivation for some of its adherents, it is the

regional policy circles and engage the best and

not an ideology’.

ideology itself that must be combatted. It must

the brightest women and men in the region.

Opening dinner and address

‘We are fighting theocrats’, the Crown Prince

be named, shamed, contained and eventually

said. Such people sully the name and practice

defeated. In closing, he called on delegates to

Opening Televised Panel

of a great tradition and divine philosophy; they

discard the term war on terror and focus on

The panel for the debate, chaired and presented

must be countered holistically, through a combi-

‘the rise of these evil theocracies’.

by Fadila Souissi from Sky News Arabia, fea-

nation of military, social, political and economic

Dr John Chipman, IISS Director-General and

tured Sheikh Khalid bin Ahmed Al Khalifa,

policies. The Crown Prince mentioned some

Chief Executive, thanked the Crown Prince for

Bahrain’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sameh

earlier efforts to accurately label the threat,

his remarks and the invaluable support he has

Shoukry, Egypt’s Minister of Foreign Affairs,

including the invented word of ‘theo-crism’

given to the Manama Dialogue from the outset.

and Hoshyar Zebari, Iraq’s Minister of Finance,

and the moniker ‘fascist theocracy’, but urged

He recalled that, inspired by the early success

together with Seyed Hossein Mousavian, the

delegates to find something more appropriate.

of the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore in pro-

former head of the Foreign Relations Committee

The failure to do so, he suggested, contributes

moting intergovernmental defence diplomacy,

of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council.

to a non-holistic policy response, in which we

the IISS had considered how to contribute to

The debate’s main focus was on the threat

‘hop blindly and haphazardly from one threat

wider national security discussions in the Gulf

posed by ISIS and the necessity of regional

to another’.

region, where the states of the Gulf Cooperation

and international cooperation in response to

The Crown Prince referred to the events

Council lacked a forum to meet with their

this challenge. A related question concerned

of 2011 as Arab Storm and said that history

immediate neighbours and the leaders of extra-

Iran’s role in regional security, and whether

will judge as to whether they were akin to the

regional powers.

this was constructive and necessary, or unwelcome and destabilising.

fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 or the Bolshevik

Turning to the state of the region, Chipman

takeover of Russia in 1917. In either case, they

recalled the vision of a secure Gulf that the

There was broad agreement on the panel

precipitated the collapse of state paradigms

Foreign Minister of the Kingdom of Saudi

that military action by Iraqi forces supported by

and created a vacuum in which an extreme ide-

Arabia, His Royal Highness Prince Saud al

a US-led international coalition of western and

ology emerged.

Faisal, laid out at the first Dialogue, involving

Arab states had inflicted substantial damage on

2

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DECEMBER 2014

IISS NEWS

DEFENCE POLICY

IRAN

ISLAMIC STATE

MANAMA DIALOGUE

Seyed Hossein Mousavian, Research Scholar, Princeton University; former Head, Foreign Relations Committee, Supreme National Security Council, Iran; Hoshyar Zebari, Minister of Finance, Iraq; Sameh Shoukry, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Egypt; Sh Khalid bin Ahmed Al Khalifa, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Bahrain: and Fadila Souissi, Presenter, Sky News Arabia

ISIS. Nevertheless, panellists concurred that it

in order to assure its ‘integrity and unity’. In his

thought that such a regional system could have

continued to pose a serious threat to security not

view, the permanent members of the United

‘excellent relations’ with the outside powers

just in Iraq and Syria, but also across the Arab

Nations Security Council and five regional

with interests in the Middle East: Russia, as well

world and perhaps even more widely.

powers needed to agree ‘principles for resolv-

as the United States and NATO.

Mousavian claimed that Iran, which was

ing the Syrian crisis’.

A question-and-answer session involving

reported to have made air-strikes against ISIS

On the question of Iran, Sheikh Khalid was

the audience provided an opportunity for the

in Iraq, was ‘a very serious partner’ in the anti-

implicitly critical of Teheran’s regional role

panellists to clarify their positions on some

terrorist coalition. However, he also asserted

under its present regime, pointing to the ‘posi-

important points. Egypt’s Shoukry claimed that

that the self-styled Islamic State was just one ele-

tive’ part it had played in Gulf security before

there was no possibility of his country, alone or

ment of a broader challenge posed by ‘the rise of

1979, under the Shah. However, he saw the

as part of an international coalition, interven-

extremism’ in the Middle East. In his view, it was

potential for Iran to play a constructive role in

ing directly in the Libyan crisis; however, he

necessary to address the ‘root causes’ of extrem-

the future, perhaps as part of regional maritime

said that it was important for interested outside

ism and for region-wide cooperation between

security arrangements.

parties to unite their efforts to protect Libyans’

the Gulf Cooperation Council, Iran, Iraq and

Zebari admitted that Iran had substantial

ability to determine their future in the face of

Turkey against extremism ‘for decades to come’.

political influence in Iraq – all Iraqi leaders have

Islamist pressures. Iraq’s Zebari emphasized the

Zebari agreed that it was important ‘to tackle

‘close ties with Iran’, he said - but emphasised

need for ‘more democracy’ and stronger insti-

the motivation behind Daesh’ in order to ‘eradi-

that this did not amount to Iranian ‘control’ of

tutions in regional states, and for the protection

cate’ the movement. This could only be achieved

his country: it was ‘the Iraqi people and elected

of Christians and other religious minorities, as

by comprehensive regional cooperation, with

government’, not Iran, who made decisions. He

well as greater cooperation among Arab states

international support, involving financial and

thought that Iraq could play a useful role as a

against terrorism. Mousavian pointed to the

political, as well as military, dimensions. He saw

‘bridge’ between Iran on one side and the Arab

danger of ‘a failed region’ if regional states did

it as particularly necessary to stop foreign vol-

states and West on the other.

not unite to manage the present challenges.

unteers from Western countries going to fight

Mousavian said ‘Iran is accused of every-

for ISIS and to cut off international financial

thing’, but pointed to the Arab world’s ‘decades

First Plenary Session: Strategic Priorities In

support for the terrorists. Shoukry emphasised

of problems’. Iran had not interfered in Egypt,

The Middle East

the importance of eradicating the ‘culture’ of

Libya and Tunisia, where the previous regimes

Sheikh Khalid bin Ahmed Al Khalifa, Bahrain’s

ISIS, which used ‘the alibi of religion’ to pursue

had all collapsed due to domestic pressures. He

foreign minister, opened the first plenary ses-

political goals. He argued that it was necessary

argued that it was important for Iran to be part

sion by identifying two challenges that he

to challenge the discourse of ISIS.

of a ‘regional cooperation system’ that could

argued should be regional priorities. First, that

Zebari asserted the importance of cooperat-

help find solutions to the crises in Lebanon,

some unaffiliated terrorist groups had achieved

ing with the Syrian government, because the

Syria and Yemen. Dialogue between Iran and

an unprecedented level of scale and serious-

civil war in Syria had ‘directly influenced Iraq’s

Saudi Arabia was ‘undoubtedly important’ in

ness; ISIS in particular now holds vast territory,

internal situation’. Mousavian argued that a

any region-wide initiative, which he admitted

money and military equipment. Second, that

‘power-sharing solution’ was necessary in Syria,

might take ’10 or 20 years’ to come to fruition. He

states were still prominent in sponsoring ter-

IISS NEWS

DECEMBER 2014 | 3

MANAMA DIALOGUE

UNITED KINGDOM

MIDDLE EAST

IRAQ

BAHRAIN

Sh Khalid bin Ahmed Al Khalifa, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Bahrain

Sameh Shoukry, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Egypt

Philip Hammond, Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs, UK

rorism or engaging directly in terrorist acts;

gested that states should modernise and

Peace and National Partnership Agreement.

he pointed to Hezbollah as an example of the

integrate, rejecting hegemony and conducting

It was also important not to give up on efforts

former and the Syrian regime’s use of barrel

dialogue on the basis of mutual respect. It was

to forge an agreement between Israel and the

bombs as an example of the latter. Tackling

necessary, he averred, to adopt comprehen-

Palestinians, which requires bold leadership on

these challenges will be neither easy nor quick,

sive solutions and to view security broadly, as

both sides.

Sheikh Khalid said. A comprehensive approach

well as tackling all terrorist groups rather than

is needed, embracing military efforts, financial

focusing solely on ISIS.

In the debate that followed, Professor Francois Heisbourg, chair of the IISS Council,

Philip Hammond, the UK’s foreign secre-

asked the panel about the tension between Gulf

tary, used his address to restate his country’s

and western objectives regarding the threat of

Sheikh Khalid noted that some regional

commitment to Gulf security. He argued that

ISIS and the Syrian civil war, as most regional

progress on these fronts had already been made,

there was a strong commonality of interest

powers wanted to see the back of the Assad

in particular the recent Manama Declaration

between London and the Gulf capitals on secu-

regime but it was potentially a valuable part-

on Combating the Financing of Terrorism.

rity, prosperity and stability. The just-signed

ner in the fight against ISIS. He also asked the

However, he added that the ambitions of some

agreement to re-establish a permanent naval

speakers to comment on the proposal by Seyed

regional powers to dominate the region stoked

presence in Bahrain was a clear statement of the

Hossein Mousavian, the former head of the

distrust and hindered cooperation. He went on

UK’s commitment to a presence East of Suez,

foreign relations committee of Iran’s National

to criticise Iran for interfering in the affairs of

he said. Mr Hammond stressed the collective

Security Council, of P5+5 talks to resolve the

some regional states.

nature of the GCC-Western effort to halt the

Syrian crisis. Sheikh Khalid rejected the notion,

Egypt’s foreign minister, Sameh Shoukry,

advance of ISIS in Iraq. He identified further

as it involved mixing the separate issues of

echoed the theme of distrust as a factor that

steps that would be needed to achieve victory:

Syria’s civil war with the challenge posed by

hindered cooperation among regional states.

the enhanced use of ground forces; the estab-

terrorism across the region. Mr Hammond

His own review of the region’s main chal-

lishment of stable, legitimate self-sufficient

added that there was little point in adopting

lenges and strategic priorities focused on

governments in Iraq and Syria (specifically

new formats if the participants did not share

domestic challenges caused by economic

excluding Bashar al-Assad); building a culture

a single view of the way forward, and P5+5

slowdown, population growth and contested

to marginalise extremism, including through

would not have consensus on the question of

national identity; the activity of extremists

the empowerment of moderates in the Gulf

Assad’s future. Professor Dewi Fortuna Anwar,

in exploiting socio-economic dislocation and

and abroad; and enhancing broader counter-

deputy secretary for political affairs to the vice-

sectarian difference, sometimes with state

terrorism efforts, including initiatives to stem

president of Indonesia, asked how Egypt would

support; and the destabilising effects of the

terrorist financing.

manage its relations with smaller powers. In

sanctions and a drive to win the theological battle against militancy.

difficulty in arriving at a two-state solution to

Looking beyond the ISIS challenge, Mr

response, Mr Shoukry said that Egypt did not

the Palestinian issue. Mr Shoukry called for the

Hammond stressed the importance of patience

aspire to lead either from the front or from

revival of the Arab peace initiative, with the

in negotiations over Iran’s nuclear programme,

behind, but rather was determined to work in

support of the UN Security Council, to move

to ensure that a deal will fully meet interna-

unision with other Arab states to realise their

towards the creation of a viable Palestinian

tional concerns. He called for pan-regional

shared goals and ambitions. Egypt has no

state. To tackle the other challenges, he sug-

cooperation, involving Iran, to support Yemen’s

expansionist agenda, he added.

4

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DECEMBER 2014

IISS NEWS

INSURGENCY

FRANCE

IRAQ

MANAMA DIALOGUE

Second Plenary Session: Iraq, Syria and Regional Security Dr Ibrahim Al Jaafari, Iraq’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, focused entirely on the challenge of confronting ISIS, which is without question Iraq’s most significant security challenge. ISIS, he argued, is a departure from Iraq’s long history of a moderate Islam and tolerance. The battle to confront it will need to be global and generational, he said, drawing a comparison to the 30 Years War in 17th century Europe. The minister noted that ISIS recruits young people from all over the world, including from Western democracies. It is vital to produce a cultural antithesis or antidote to ISIS. That antidote, he said, should be respect for human rights.

Al Jaafari called for a global mobilization against ISIS, including the creation of an equivalent to the Second World War alliance of the Soviet Union with the US, Britain and France.

Dr Ibrahim Al Jaafari, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Iraq

Jean-Yves Le Drian, Minister of Defence, France

lead such an effort, since it has strong relation-

into a caliphate, threatening the entire region.

without a political process in Syria. He also said

ships throughout the region, including with

Unlike al Qaeda, ISIS combines ideological

that Iran cannot be a partner in this effort when

Iran and the GCC countries.

extremist terrorism and traditional military

Iran and its proxies are interfering and acting as

The Iraqi government has attempted to

tactics. He noted the alarming fact that other

an occupying power in Syria. Sheikh Abdullah

deal with the social basis of ISIS by forming a

extremist groups in other regions have declared

suggested that western states did not match the

government that represents all of the country’s

allegiance to ISIS.

Gulf states in the determination to fight terror-

Adversaries should come together, he argued.

The minister said that Iraq was well placed to

groups. The minister called on the international

The minister stressed the global aspects

ism. He pointed out that European states were

community to do more to support his country

of the current crisis. He said that 1,100 French

much more tolerant of hate speech than their

militarily, since it is the spearhead of the fight

nationals had participated in jihad in Syria,

Gulf counterparts, and added that while west-

against ISIS. Iraq needs weapons, logistics,

and 370 fought for ISIS. France has committed

ern states were mostly concerned with weapons

training, and intelligence. Al Jaafari expressed

15 fighter planes to the air campaign against

and finance, the states of the Gulf region are

Iraq’s gratitude for the sacrifice and support of

ISIS. While noting the success of some opera-

engaged in a fight for their culture, religion and

those countries which have supported the effort

tions thus far, Le Drian argued that air strikes

very existence.

against ISIS. He called for sustained efforts to

alone would not resolve the problem; only the

The rest of the discussion centred on the

find common ground in the region and to focus

determination of the people of Iraq and the

challenges of bringing communities into the

on the ISIS threat.

countries of the region to staunch the flow of

battle against ISIS and counter-radicalisation,

Jean-Yves Le Drian, the Minister of Defence

political and financial support to ISIS will make

specifically concerning the role of social media

of France, focused on ISIS from the perspective

success possible. The anti-ISIS effort must focus

in promoting extremism.

of an outside power that has a long history in

on building sustainable state institutions and

the region. As he put it, ‘We are not from this

inclusive national identity that embraces all citi-

Third Plenary Session: Countering Extremism

region but this region is not foreign to us.’ He

zens. In this context, Le Drian noted, the violent,

in the Middle East

called for a regional coalition against terrorism

sectarian regime of Bashar al Assad bears much

In the third plenary session, Dr Nizar Madani,

that simultaneously shows respect for Islam,

responsibility for the ascent of ISIS.

Saudi Arabia’s Minister of State for Foreign

but added that the crisis had extra-regional

Le Drian characterised the French intervention

Affairs, argued that the GCC had proven

impacts and thus was a matter for the entire

in Mali, and the ongoing 4,000-troop commit-

stronger and more resourceful than many

international community.

ment to the country, as an example of an effort

‘cynics’ had expected. Despite challenges and

Le Drian noted that the crisis is the Middle

that did pay off. He closed with a warning that

scepticism, perseverance has been ‘the rock on

East began over a decade ago with the September

various terrorist and extremist groups from the

which we relied.’ The organisation’s priority has

2001 terror attacks on the US. It is a complex

horn of Africa through the Middle East and into

been security, for without security there is no

regional crisis that feeds on state weakness,

Asia could become interconnected. The interna-

freedom or prosperity, he insisted. And despite

hatreds, extremism and social marginalisation.

tional community must prevent their unification.

numerous challenges, growth and employment

Today, the Jihadi threat is two-headed, with al

The discussion period began with an inter-

rates have soared. The future of the GCC would

Qaeda still maintaining branches throughout

vention by Sheikh Abdullah Bin Zayed Al

rely on three dimensions: local, regional and

the Gulf, while ISIS has 20,000-30,000 fight-

Nahyan, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the

international. For the local dimension, the GCC

ers and aspires to build its territorial holdings

UAE. He stated that ISIS cannot be defeated

members themselves needed to build upon their

IISS NEWS

DECEMBER 2014 | 5

MANAMA DIALOGUE

YEMEN

SAUDI ARABIA

COUNTER TERRORISM

In regard to Yemen, two delegates, from Lebanon and the UAE, spoke to the difficulty of putting into force political agreements meant to end the conflict with Houthis. There seemed to be no will either from the Houthis or Yemen’s president to implement the agreements, according to one of the delegates. Unless respected and implemented the country would fall back into civil strife. And the overriding question, she argued, was how to close off Iran’s influence in Yemeni affairs. Dr Nicholas Redman of the IISS meanwhile focused on what Gulf neighbors might do to ease the country’s economic difficulties. Given that these countries are wealthy and employ foreign labour, and that Yemen is poor and populace, couldn’t there be a use for the latter’s surplus labour, even if it means Yemen will be a remittance economy?

Al Ahmadi focused in his responses on the problem of implementing peace agreements.

Dr Nizar Madani, Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, Saudi Arabia

Major General Ali Al Ahmadi, Chief, National Security Bureau, Yemen

own rich and diversified experience. Regionally,

tral cause’ of Middle East turmoil, because, in

from Sanaa and have gone back to fighting. Iran,

future stability requires building constructive

his words, ‘Israeli tyranny’ has been ‘exploited

he added, has continued to play a malign role,

relations with neighbouring countries, which

by many including al Qaeda.’

supporting the rebels with money and arms.

Implementation has been stymied by discord, he said, and Houthis have refused to withdraw

in turn should avoid meddling in the internal

In discussion, three delegates focused on

affairs of others and backing sectarian militias.

Saudi relations with Iran and the problem of

Fourth Plenary Session: Collective approaches

Madani specified that he was talking about Iran,

Sunni extremism. On the latter, David Roberts

to current security issues

‘an important country’ that ‘has the right to be

of Kings College London argued that Saudi

Given recent divisions among the states of the

a key player in the region’, but only if it serves

Arabia was ‘in denial’ about the sources of

Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), collective

stability rather than strife. In the international

extremism in its own Wahhabi fundamental-

approaches to security are an issue of great cur-

dimension, there was the dire need for collective

ism. Another critical question was posed by

rency. The GCC Secretary General, Dr Abdullatif

efforts to counter terrorism. To do so, however,

Hoshyar Zebari, Iraq’s Minister of Finance,

Al Zayani, highlighted the inherent difficulties

required addressing the link between terrorist

who challenged the Saudi position towards

in having multiple parties work in harmony.

movements and humanitarian crises in Syria,

Iran. Iran is an important neighboring country,

He identified three factors that are necessary for

Palestine, Libya and elsewhere.

Zebari insisted, and it is a ‘primordial principle

this process: participation should be as inclusive

General Ali Al Ahmadi, the chief of Yemen’s

of dialogue’ that it should take place between

and comprehensive as possible; discussions

National Security Bureau, spoke on a day when

countries that disagree rather than those who

should be supported by a consultation process

two hostages held by an al Qaeda affiliated

agree. Zebari asked whether there a possibil-

by relevant parties; and there should be effective

group died during an operation to free them.

ity of a renewed dialogue as in the days of

implementation of any process involving coor-

Against this tragic backdrop, Ahmadi noted that

Presidents Rafsanjani and Khatami? Other

dinated regional and international strategies.

Yemen was among the countries most damaged

delegates questioned whether the Gulf needed

Al Zayani was sceptical that Gulf states had

by terrorism. The government was fighting hard

to deal with Iran, whose policies in Lebanon,

devised necessary implementation mechanisms,

against the terrorists, had launched damaging

Syria and Iraq were portrayed as stoking sec-

as they are often overwhelmed by temporary

operations including air strikes against them,

tarianism and thus boosting recruitment to

challenges. But there were positive signs: Saudi

and had worked with foreign partners includ-

ISIS.

Arabia had suggested an international counterterrorism centre, and pledged $100m in support.

ing the US with joint operations and the sharing

Madani in response said that Saudi Arabia

of intelligence. However, the rapid rise of ISIS

agreed with dialogue as a matter of prin-

Canada’s Minister for Foreign Affairs, John

in Iraq and Syria dictated caution in making

ciple, but believed that success required some

Baird, noted that most challenges in the Gulf

assessments about the future of any terrorist

common denominators. Trust and transpar-

region are driven by sectarianism and that

threat and how close it was to being defeated.

ency were prerequisites before starting any

sectarian divisions were being exploited by

In Yemen, meanwhile, civil strife continued. The

dialogue, he said. Above all, ‘countries should

‘sinister state actors’ and ‘nefarious non-state

general blamed rebellious Houthis for violations

not interfere in other countries’ internal affairs.’

actors’, with Iran’s support for Shia militias an

causing the almost total disintegration of peace

He also rejected the charge of a link between

example. For Baird, the answer to such sectari-

efforts. Whereas most of his prepared remarks

Saudi religious practice and the ideology that

anism is pluralism.

focused on Yemen’s difficulties, he concluded

fuels ISIS: ‘the Islamic religion is innocent of

by identifying the Palestinian issue as the ‘cen-

these acts.’

6

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DECEMBER 2014

According to Baird, globalisation ensures that what happens in the Middle East resonates IISS NEWS

CANADA

UNITED KINGDOM

MANAMA DIALOGUE

Dr Abdullatif Al Zayani, Secretary General, Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf

John Baird, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Canada

Michael Fallon, Secretary of State for Defence, UK

around the globe. Thus, the need for collec-

a concern, as well as Iran’s nuclear programme

the new Iraqi army should have support right

tive action could not be greater. Ultimately,

which Baird concluded was designed to deliver

across Iraqi society.

however, extremism and sectarianism cannot

a nuclear weapons capability.

Chipman concluded the session by question-

be countered with just military power, Baird

Zayani then spoke about the steps needed to

ing whether the oft-heard call for tackling the

argued. Economic stability and dynamism are

make a breakthrough in relations between Iran

root causes was a recipe for delay and inaction:

necessary to empower people and ensure long-

and its Gulf neighbours. Firstly, it should act

‘I wonder sometimes whether we are making

term prosperity.

to resolve its territorial dispute with the UAE

the analytically perfect the enemy of the politi-

Michael Fallon, the UK Secretary of State for

concerning three islands that Iran has occupied.

cally necessary.’ Understanding the proximate

Defence, claimed the world is in an ‘unpreced-

Secondly, it should facilitate the withdrawal of

causes, he explained, and tackling them ‘with

ently dangerous’ situation. In this environment,

Hizbullah from Syria, where it is responsible

vigour, enthusiasm, clarity, fairness and good

the UK retains the political will and the military

for the death of many Syrians. Iran’s good faith

governance’ might be enough ‘to help stabilise

capabilities to intervene--despite a parliamen-

could only be impressed upon the region by

this very complex world in which we live’.

tary vote in 2013 rejecting military strikes in

bold steps, he said.

Fifth Plenary Session: Reflections on Ten

Syria. Fallon identified some relevant histori-

Fallon concluded by answering questions

cal lessons: first, that liberty is underpinned by

from Zaid Belbagi of the Prince Salman Centre

Years of Regional Security Changes

credible armed forces that are ready to deploy

for Innovative Government and Neil Hawkins,

Opening this final session, Mark Fitzpatrick,

rapidly and at scale. Second, partnerships are

Australia’s Ambassador to Bahrain, Oman,

Director

vital. Moreover, although there is plenty of

Saudi Arabia and Yemen. These concerned

Disarmament Programme at the IISS, traced

scope for the use of soft power in the Gulf, there

whether the military operation against ISIS had

the evolution of Iran’s nuclear programme

is no substitute for hard power. A possible final

to be at a similar scale to the 1991 operation to

over ten years. Iran now has a stockpile of low-

lesson is that the more secure the Gulf states are,

liberate Kuwait; whether western states had

enriched uranium that is sufficient to make up

the more secure the West remains.

of

the

Non-Proliferation

and

the appetite for such an undertaking; and the

to six bombs, if further enriched. The interim

In the debate that followed, Seyed Hossein

importance for western public opinion of seeing

deal agreed in 2013 resembled a ceasefire, in

Mousavian, formerly Iran’s chief nuclear nego-

a strong, active Gulf presence within the US-led

which Iran agreed to stop the production of near

tiator, berated Baird for ‘spending your time in

coalition. Fallon said that it would take an effort

highly enriched uranium, and cap the number

palaces and luxury hotels fighting ISIS’ while the

on a par with the 1991 Gulf War, and that with

of centrifuges, in exchange for no new sanctions.

Iranian general, Qasem Soleimani, was risking

50 states involved the enterprise was scaling

Tehran’s late-2014 deal with Russia to provide

his life on the front line. Why, Mousavian asked,

upwards. He confirmed that GCC involvement

enriched uranium for eight new reactors elimi-

was Canada more aggressive towards Iran than

was very helpful for Western governments to

nated the practical need for Iran to have an

even the US? What lay behind this position?

justify their involvement to their electorates.

enrichment programme of its current size. The

Baird responded that Canada wanted Iran to

He confirmed that airpower alone could not

country’s insistence of preserving it was due

play a major regional role, but was disturbed by

defeat ISIS, and pointed to the reconstitution

to pride but also a desire to have the option of

its backing for Shia militias in Iraq and its sup-

of the Iraqi army and the creation of a national

developing nuclear weapons. The key to a deal

port for terrorist groups in nearly every Middle

guard as evidence that the ground component

lay in whether Iran was willing to put this hedg-

Eastern state. Its human-rights record was also

was being build up. It was vital, he said, that

ing strategy ‘on ice’.

IISS NEWS

DECEMBER 2014 | 7

MANAMA DIALOGUE

TERRORISM AND SECURITY

GEOPOLITICS

Mark Fitzpatrick, Director, Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Programme, IISS; Dr Bassma Kodmani, Executive Director, Arab Reform Initiative; Dr John Chipman, DirectorGeneral and Chief Executive, IISS; General The Lord Richards of Herstmonceux, Senior Adviser, IISS; former Chief of the Defence Staff, UK; and Jamal Khashoggi, General Manager, Al Arab News Channel

Dr Bassma Kodmani, the Executive Director of the Arab Reform Initiative, discussed Syria

effective under fire it is vital to have good com-

one of which was the Islamic State, managed to

mand and control.

seize large amounts of territory.’

within the context of broader societal dynam-

Jamal Khashoggi, General Manager of the Al

Dr Ayman Safadi, the former Deputy Prime

ics. The governance of diverse societies was, she

Arab News Channel, noted that the danger from

Minister of Jordan, suggested that the current

said, key to state security and stability; poor gov-

ISIS was real; it was, he said, not an army but an

strategy was a result of Western misunderstand-

ernance of diversity led to fragmented societies.

idea ‘that feeds on our failures.’ He argued that

ing and Arab complacency, and was doomed to

The reassertion of a strong military role in Egypt

most analysts and governments had failed to

fail for these reasons. In particular, he argued,

in 2011 marked a turning point for regional poli-

notice the rise of ISIS because of the post-2011

the focus on Iraq—even if taken to a successful

tics, putting the accent on security solutions to

focus on Iran and Iraq. ISIS was a radical group

conclusion—would allow ISIS to regenerate in

the challenge of extremism. The advance of ISIS

that flourished because of bad governance, poor

Syria. Richards agreed with his analysis, saying

in Iraq, and the focus this received from regional

education and social injustice. When the Arab

that he disapproved of the incremental approach

and foreign powers, meant that the situation in

Spring began in 2011, some states accommo-

towards ISIS, which cedes the strategic intiative.

Syria was becoming more complex. There was

dated demands for more freedom and justice;

Syria was vital, Richards argued, and there had

no strategy for Syria, Kodmani argued, and it

the states that chose instead to rely on old meth-

to be a regional grand strategy.

was not clear which opposition forces would

ods provided a fertile ground for ISIS.

Kodmani tackled another question from

be trained and how would they be vetted. A

In response to a question from Seyed Hossein

Safadi, who had suggested that the moderate

strategy was needed to define reliable groups,

Mousavian about the possibility of improved

opposition in Syria had disappeared. They still

she said.

relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, Jamal

exist, she replied, but had no space to operate

General the Lord Richards of Herstmonceux,

Khashoggi said he was pessimistic for three

at present. The media focus is squarely on ISIS,

formerly the UK’s Chief of Defence Staff, offered

reasons: Iran’s role in Syria; the fact that ISIS is

while they have not received the funding that

a critique of recent military engagements in the

an Arab failure and must be fixed by the Arabs;

foreign states have given to armed groups. Only

region: ‘lots of policy masquerading as strategy,

and because ISIS is a Sunni problem that will

the US has the ability to enforce coherence on the

and certainly lots of tactics, but few joined-up,

become more complex if Iran is involved.

various donors in support of a single strategy.

long-term plans that successfully synthesise

Dr Toby Dodge, IISS Senior Consulting

In closing, Fitzpatrick was pessimistic about

strategic ends, ways and means, the essence of

Fellow for the Middle East, took issue with

the chances for an agreement with Iran. He

a strategy.’ States that want to achieve strategic

Khashoggi’s assertion that the population of

thought western states would act militarily if

success, he argued, have to be fully committed

Mosul embraced ISIS when its fighters seized

Iran got too close to nuclear capability, and for

to the cause. Western experiences in Iraq and

control of the city. He argued that there was

that reason Iran would stop short of acquiring a

Afghanistan had left political leaders reluctant

insufficient data to support such a conclusion.

weapon. He rejected suggestions that Iran was

to risk similar outcomes and led to other solu-

Rather, he suggested, it would be more sus-

justified in refusing to give up its enrichment

tions, particularly operations using local or

tainable to suggest that ‘the generalised revolt

capability in favour of imports. In particular,

proxy forces. The GCC states could create a mil-

that we saw spread across the northwest of Iraq

he criticised the argument that Iran’s sunk costs

itarily efficient joint command to tackle future

from… 2012 through 2013–2014 created the

impelled it to continue down the route of self-

challenges together, he argued, although to be

arena within which five or six insurgent groups,

sufficiency as fundamentally flawed.

8

|

DECEMBER 2014

IISS NEWS

DEFENCE POLICY

DEFENCE ECONOMICS

GULF STATES

MANAMA DIALOGUE

Special Session 1: IRAN AND THE REGION BEYOND THE NUCLEAR NEGOTIATIONS The specific mandate of this rich and conten-

the content. A number of participants regretted

faceted threat to regional security, not only

tious session proved difficult to fulfil. When

the absence of an Arab state in the negotia-

through its support to revolution but through

participants did manage to leave the nuclear

tions (or its lack of transparency towards Arab

its conventional, cyber and ballistic missile

issue behind, they often proved unwilling

states), and were apprehensive of possible out-

capabilities, and its disruptive potential in the

to move beyond the divisions which have

comes of the parallel bilateral US-Iranian track.

Strait of Hormuz. These are matched by a sub-

plagued attempts to establish a new and more

These concerns underpinned a broader

stantial (and supposedly Asian-pivot-proof) US

Gulf unease that the US was, firstly, failing

presence in the Gulf, consisting of advanced

Participants gathered soon after the nego-

to recognise Iranian stalling tactics, and, sec-

hardware and more than 35,000 personnel.

tiations between Iran and the P5+1 powers had

ondly, moving to reach a regional settlement

All agreed that no enduring solution

been extended by seven months. They heard

with Iran over the heads of other parties. Even

to the problems of regional political order

updates on outstanding issues, including

stronger were Gulf participants’ complaints

can be reached without the involvement of

matters of verification and transparency, and

about Iranian interference in others’ domes-

Iran. But just as problematic as the polit-

finding mutually acceptable parameters for

tic politics. Iran’s commitment to exporting

ical-military stand-off in the region is the

Iranian fuel-cycle capacity. In fact, the format

revolution was described by one participant

inheritance of mutual distrust, reinforced by

of the negotiations was of as much interest as

as part of a two-pronged foreign policy which

contemporary developments, that prevents

also supposedly pledges

real Gulf–Iran dialogue from taking place.

non-interference.

stable regional order.

This

Here, the gap between two images of Iran –

was greeted with the

either as a putative hegemon seeking nuclear

counter-accusation that

weapons, exporting sectarianism and desta-

Gulf states are to blame

bilising its neighbours, or as an encircled,

for the jihadist scourge

defensive victim – was palpable. Yet so too

of today’s Middle East.

was the reluctance of all parties to take the nec-

It was argued that Iran

Army Day Parade, Tehran, 2013 (Behrouz Mehri/AFP/Getty)

poses

a

multi-

essary first steps, in political terms, towards a comprehensive regional settlement.

Special Session 2: REGIONAL COUNTERTERRORISM AND COUNTER RADICALISATION POLICIES Participants agreed that defeating terrorism

lapse because it creates a vacuum

involves a sustained, multi-front effort in the

in which terrorists can thrive.

region and beyond, not least because an esti-

There was some disagreement

mated 16,000-18,000 of ISIS’s fighters are foreign.

over whether the Syrian state

Tackling the ISIS threat requires military action,

could be saved, or whether it had

efforts to disrupt its recruitment and revenue

already collapsed.

(especially through organised criminal activ-

Counter-radicalisation efforts

ity) and to challenge its extremist ideology. A

are focused in large part on an

solid legal framework is part of the solution, but

effort by more than 60 states to

it was pointed out that the support of Western

challenge the ideology, religious

states may be difficult to sustain over the next

authority and narrative of extrem-

decade or more, if anti-terrorism laws are used

ist groups. ISIS’ discourse of

in some regional states to curb the activity of

inevitable victory followed by a utopian future

Western governments face a dilemma

opposition forces as well as extremists.

A video grab of an Islamic State militant in Syria, September 2014 (Getty/AFP)

stands at odds with the reality that many vol-

regarding their nationals who have fought in

States have successfully formulated and

unteers will either die or be arrested, and this

Syria and Iraq. A number of them are disil-

implemented counterterrorism plans in the

is something governments could exploit. Video

lusioned and would like to return home, but

past, but often old lessons are forgotten and

of atrocities in Syria and Iraq, committed by

they fear arrest. These young people could be

states tend to overreact in the face of a new

Sunni and Shia militants, have radicalised

useful to establish a counter narrative to the

threat. Success depends on the state quickly

young people in both communities rapidly; it is

ISIS message, but only if they are handled care-

correcting its stance, adopting an all-govern-

not only a Sunni/ISIS phenomenon. Some par-

fully. Although it is important to combat and

ment approach that improves governance, and

ticipants stressed that the brutality of the Syrian

defeat extremism ideologically, that is not the

so steadily reducing the terrorist threat to the

government towards its own population was a

whole solution. As one participant remarked,

point where it becomes a law-and-order prob-

driver of radicalism; others drew attention to

many of the young recruits are malleable and

lem. Looking at regional conflicts, participants

the negative impact of the aggressively sectar-

seek excitement; winning the theological argu-

agreed that it was important to avoid state col-

ian policies of the Maliki government in Iraq.

ment alone will not deliver victory.

IISS NEWS

DECEMBER 2014 | 9

MANAMA DIALOGUE

FOREIGN POLICY

CONFLICT PREVENTION

MILITARY COOPERATION

Special Session 3: PREVENTING STATE FAILURE: HUMANITARIAN AND GEOPOLITICAL APPROACHES Worries about state failure and the possibil-

before an intervention is

ity of regional failure pervaded the Dialogue

undertaken.

The post-2001 trend

and were addressed directly in this session.

The experience of two decades of UN-led

of

interventions in failed or failing states yielded

problems of the Middle

four lessons. Firstly, a series of UN Human

East attracted particular

Development Reports, written by Arab aca-

criticism, because a weak

demics, had identified the weaknesses in Arab

state is deficient in three

states, specifically corruption and repression,

main

that resulted in state failure in Syria, Iraq, Yemen

legitimacy and capacity.

and Libya. Efforts to rebuild and strengthen

Securitisation leads to over concentration on

states should therefore focus on empowering

the first shortcoming, creating a high level of

The debate on Iraq generated several

parliaments, rebuilding competent courts and

dependency between the exogenous supplier

perspectives. Firstly, that the present crisis

defending personal freedoms. This was vital to

of security and the consuming state. The EU

originated in a political process that was started

restore trust between state and society.

has started to learn this lesson; only five of its

under occupation. Secondly, that the 2003 inva-

38 missions are primarily military in focus.

sion was a catalyst for the Arab revolutions of

Secondly, intervening powers should not

‘securitising’

areas:

the

security,

Syrian Kurdish refugees moving into Turkey (EC/ECHO)

likely to be productive.

use excessive coercion or pursue a victor’s jus-

The panel then want on to examine both

2011, by encouraging democracy in the region.

tice. De-Ba’athifcation in Iraq and the Political

Syria and Iraq. The Syrian crisis was multifac-

However, the failure to provide adequate secu-

Isolation Law in Libya have played central

eted and existed at the local, national, regional

rity for six months after the invasion led to a

roles in destabilising the new political settle-

and

simultaneously.

division of society between those fighting the

ments. Thirdly, the international community

There were very high levels of mistrust at all

occupation and those wishing to democratise. It

has to act with speed when faced with the

of these levels. Opposition forces at the local

is necessary, particpants agreed, to enable indig-

prospect of state failure: intervention in the

and national levels are so fractured that they

enous local actors to drive the reconstitution of

Balkans came too late. Finally, there is a need

cannot be dealt with as a single entity. For this

state power and legitimacy, in partnership with

for effective, detailed, long-range planning

reason, the Geneva Two process was never

the international community.

international

levels

Special Session 4: REGIONAL MILITARY COOPERATION The region is faced presently with a binary

while several European nations are taking part

army that can provide the basis of the required

challenge: the pressing need to cooperate to

in the US air operations in Iraq.

ground campaign, this is not the case in Syria.

defeat ISIS and the long-term issue of crafting

The challenge of ISIS, by its very nature

military cooperation to provide an effective

a pan-regional threat, requires that it be

and self-sustaining security architecture.

will also require time.

countered militarily and ideologically on a

Looking beyond the huge challenge posed

The overriding immediate security concern

multi-national basis. Achieving this will prob-

by ISIS, the region remains some way from

for the region, and beyond, is confronting and

ably be the work of a generation. The pacing of

supporting an adequate cooperative security

defeating ISIS, with several regional nations

the military aspects of a counter-strategy, how-

arrangement to provide collective defence.

involved actively in supporting the US-led

ever, may pose potential difficulties for some

Within the Gulf Cooperation Council there is

campaign. Bahrain, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and

local states: have their respective militaries the

still a considerable gap between ambition and

the United Arab Emirates have contributed to

capacity to sustain prolonged operations, and

actual capacity. There are doubts, for example,

the US air campaign to strike at ISIS in Syria,

may wider pressures risk stressing their civil

as to whether the GCC command and control

societies? The emergence of

infrastructure is robust and resilient enough to

ISIS has forced nations in

meet the kinds of threats it may actually face.

the region to re-assess intraregional cooperation.

Kurdish Peshmerga paramililtary (Sadikgulec/Dreamstime)

10

Bolstering moderate opposition forces in Syria

|

DECEMBER 2014

The existence of an external security guarantor , the US, is re-assuring but paradoxically

The military defeat of

it may undercut local efforts to improve genu-

ISIS in Iraq will presage

inely regional capacity. The back-stop of US

a shift in the emphasis of

military might ironically acts as a brake on the

the military campaign to

impetus to develop an independent regional

Syria. This will present fresh

capability. There remains also the long-stand-

problems, for while Iraq

ing issue of Iran and how any regional security

retains at least a notionally

architecture could manage or perhaps even

functioning – if degraded –

accommodate relations with Tehran.

IISS NEWS

EXPERTS

GEO-ECONOMICS

INDIA GLOBAL FORUM

SOUTH ASIA

The India Global Forum 2014 The IISS and the Observer Research Foundation (ORF), India, jointly convened the India Global Forum 2014 in New Delhi on 9–10 November 2014.

The IGF opened with a keynote address by India’s Minister of Finance and Defence Mr Arun Jaitley. Mr Jaitley explained the political significance of the 2014 elections to the Indian parliament, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi forming the first single-party majority government in India since 1989. Mr Jaitley outlined India’s economic and fiscal policies, emphasising the urgency of reviving India’s growth momentum and reviving investor sentiment at home and abroad. He emphasised the importance of India’s new ’Make in India’ campaign aimed at promoting the growth of manufacturing, including in the defence sector. He claimed his most important contribution as defence minister was the decision to permit foreign direct investment (FDI) in defence manufacturing.

The four plenary sessions that followed focused on India’s external

Arun Jaitley, India’s Minister of Finance and Defence, opened the India Global Forum with a keynote address

economic policies and the role of Indian and foreign enterprise in India’s growth process. Speakers said the deceleration in commodity prices

of Industrial Policy and Promotion, India; Lars-Olof Lindgren, Chairman,

afforded India an opportunity to revive growth, that India was commit-

SAAB Technologies India; Phil Shaw, Chief Executive, Lockheed

ted to the successful completion of the Doha Round of multilateral trade

Martin India; Flavio S. Damico, Director, Department of Inter-Regional

negotiations and that India would remain actively engaged in the Asian

Mechanisms, Ministry of External Affairs, Brazil; Tadashi Maeda, Senior

economic community building process. Plenary session speakers included

Managing Director, Japan Bank for International Cooperation; Wenguang

Suresh Prabhu, Prime Minister Modi’s G-20 Sherpa and the newly

Shao, Senior Europe Advisor, Phoenix Satellite Television Holdings and

appointed Minister for Railways; Nirmala Sitharaman, India’s minister of

Consulting Senior Fellow for China and International Relations, IISS;

commerce and industry; Yasutoshi Nishimura, Senior Vice-Minister of the

Saumitra Chaudhuri, Former Member, Planning Commission, India;

Cabinet Office, Japan; Klaus Regling, Chief Executive Officer, European

Nigel Inkster, Director for Transnational Threats and Political Risk, IISS;

Financial Stability Facility and Managing Director, European Stability

Baroness Pauline Neville-Jones, Former Minister of State for Security

Mechanism; Dino Patti Djalal, Deputy Foreign Minister, Indonesia; Felipe

and Counter-Terrorism, UK; Hardeep Singh Puri, Secretary General,

Larraín Bascuñán, Former Minister of Finance, Chile and Senior Adviser,

Independent Commission on Multilateralism; Douglas H. Wise, Deputy

IISS; Sheikh Mohammed Bin Essa Al Khalifa, Advisor for Political

Director, Defense Intelligence Agency, US; Mohamad Maliki Bin Osman,

and Economic Affairs, Court of the Crown Prince of Bahrain; Memduh

Minister of State, Ministry of National Development and Ministry of

Karakullukçu, Vice Chairman and President, Global Relations Forum,

Defence, Singapore; Anil Wadhwa, Secretary (East), Ministry of External

Turkey; Sunil Bharti Mittal, Founder and Chairman, Bharti Enterprises;

Affairs, India; Tarek Shayya, Director of Strategy, Office of the Minister of

and Habil Khorakiwala, Chairman, Wockhardt Group.

State, UAE; C. Rajamohan, Distinguished Fellow, ORF.

The parallel special sessions discussed India’s ‘Make in India’ pro-

The IGF was attended by over 200 invited delegates from India and

gramme and the role of private investment in defence modernisation, the

abroad, including government officials, diplomats, business leaders and

energy security strategies of emerging economies, challenges to regional

policy analysts.

security in the Gulf and the Indo-Pacific, and the governance agenda for

More photos of the India Global Forum are available on the IISS Flickr

cyber security. Speakers included Amitabh Kant, Secretary, Department

site. The IGF sessions are available to watch here.

Sunil Bharti Mittal, Founder and Chairman, Bharti Enterprises; Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS; Sunjoy Joshi, Director, ORF; and Dr Habil Khorakiwala, Chairman, Wockhardt Group

Klaus Regling, Chief Executive Officer, European Financial Stability Facility; Dr Sanjaya Baru, Director, Geo-economics and Strategy, IISS; Nirmala Sitharaman, Minister of Commerce and Industry, India; and Dr Dino Patti Djalal, Deputy Foreign Minister, Indonesia

IISS NEWS

DECEMBER 2014 | 11

SOUTH ASIA

IISS-NESA SECURITY CONFERENCE

EXPERTS

8th IISS–NESA Oman 2014 Conference The 8th IISS conference on South Asia Security, in partnership with the US National Defense University’s Near East South Asia (NESA) Center for Strategic Studies, took place in Muscat, Oman, on 17–19 October 2014.

This ‘one-and-a-half’ track conference, with senior officials participating in their private capacity, focused on ‘Afghanistan and Regional Stability & Security’.

Amidst new governments for the first time in over a decade in both Afghanistan and India, and a relatively new civilian government in Pakistan, security challenges have proliferated. The Afghan Taliban has launched its most intense offensive as NATO/ISAF combat forces prepare

Shaharyar Khan, Pakistan’s Special Envoy to the Prime Minister for India; and Satinder Lambah, Former Indian Special Envoy to the Prime Minister

to withdraw from Afghanistan by the end of December 2014. The longawaited Pakistani military operation ‘Zarb-e-Azb’ has now been launched against militants in North Waziristan. The decade-long ceasefire between India and Pakistan on Kashmir’s Line of Control and Working Boundary continues to be violated by both, raising tensions. Amidst these challenges, the rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) has had an impact on all three countries.

The conference brought together 53 top government officials, high-level diplomats, senior military and intelligence officials, and influential experts from Afghanistan, India and Pakistan, along with a few participants from the US & Europe. These included Maj.-Gen. Ahmad Mahmood Hayat, the Director-General (Strategic Intelligence and Analysis) of Pakistan’s InterServices Intelligence, Brig.-Gen. Ahmed Zia Saraj, the First Deputy for Counter- & Foreign Intelligence of Afghanistan’s National Directorate of State Security, M.J. Akbar, the National Spokesman for India’s ruling Bharatiya

Lieutenant General (Retd) Terry Wolff, Director, NESA Center for Strategic Studies

Janata Party (BJP) and Philip Barton, the British High Commissioner to Pakistan. NESA was led by its new Director Lt-Gen. (retd) Terry Wolff.

The conference was organised by Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, IISS Senior Fellow for South Asia, with support from Rebecca Fishley and Stephanie Love, Asia Dialogues Coordinator.

Major General Ahmad Mahmood Hayat, Director General (Strategic Intelligence and Analysis), Inter Services Intelligence

The IISS is grateful for the continued support provided by His Majesty Sultan Qaboos bin Said of Oman to this annual conference series.

The 9th IISS–NESA South Asia Security Conference will be held in Oman in late 2015.

IISS Nuclear Workshops in South Asia The IISS organised its third annual ‘one-and-a-half’ track defence and nuclear workshops in New Delhi and Islamabad in late 2014. Both of these ‘off-the-record’ workshops took forward previous discussions on regional defence and nuclear deterrence issues.

The Indian workshop was held jointly with the United Service Institution (USI) of India on 11 November and focused on the dynam-

M. K. Narayanan, former National Security Advisor to the Prime Minister and former Chair, Executive Council of India’s Nuclear Command Authority

ics of strategic stability with China and Pakistan, deterrence at sea, and confidence-building measures in Southern Asia. The valedictory address

building measures in South Asia. The keynote address was delivered

was delivered by M.K. Narayanan, former National Security Advisor to

by Lt-Gen. (retd) Khalid Kidwai, Advisor on Nuclear Development to

the Prime Minister and former Chair of the Executive Council of India’s

Pakistan’s National Command Authority. The visiting IISS team also

Nuclear Command Authority.

called on Lt-Gen. Zubair Hayat, the Director-General of the Strategic Plans

The Pakistan workshop was held on 4 December with the Center for International Strategic Studies (CISS). The event focused on the regional security environment, stabilising deterrence, and the future of confidence-

12

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DECEMBER 2014

Division of Pakistan’s National Command Authority.

The fourth round of the IISS’s South Asian defence and nuclear workshops will be held in the region in late 2015.

IISS NEWS

AFGHANISTAN

EXPERTS

SOUTH ASIA

Afghanistan’s New Government: Challenges and Opportunities

Afghanistan and Regional Security

Afghan President Ashraf Ghani with US Secretary of State John Kerry in Kabul, August 2014 (US State Department)

Loading a C-17 Globemaster III aircraft Aug. 11, 2014, at Bagram Airfield, Afghanistan (Brandon Lingle/US Air Force)

In the first of two meetings exploring post-2014 Afghanistan, Senior BBC

On 22 October, Professor Roger Kangas spoke at Arundel House on

Broadcast Journalist Dawood Azami discussed the country’s prospects for

Afghanistan’s future stability in the regional context. Kangas, the

stability after historic elections. Following the signing of a power-sharing

Academic Dean at the Near East South Asia Center (NESA) for Strategic

deal, Ashraf Ghani and his rival Abdullah Abdullah were now the coun-

Studies, said the Central Asian states had broadly welcomed Kabul’s

try’s second post-Taliban president and first-ever Chief Executive Officer,

two new leaders. Yet to overcome Afghanistan’s ‘failure narrative’ and

respectively. Azami argued that eventually, hopefully before the upcom-

pursue true regional economic cooperation in energy and infrastructure,

ing London Conference on Afghanistan (December 2014), ‘big tent politics’

Central Asia would require political support from extra-regional part-

would usher in a new government. Provided its two strongmen used their

ners. New US priorities had led states like Kyrgyzstan to adjust their own

leadership to work together, he believed they could tackle their long to-do

security policies, while some had considered pursuing closer ties to the

list. Azami stressed that new cabinet appointments must be based on

Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. Meanwhile, Iran’s role in maintain-

merit and parity; parliamentary elections must be organised in 2015, and

ing regional stability would largely depend, Kangas explained, on the

a constitutional amendment institutionalising power-sharing, improving

fate of talks regarding its nuclear programme. Rahul Roy-Chaudhury,

governance and decentralising power must be prepared by 2016. However,

Senior Fellow for South Asia, welcomed early signs that Afghanistan–

security remained the biggest challenge. Although agreements with the US

Pakistan relations were improving. Narendra Modi’s government, he

and NATO had boosted security forces, improved logistics and air support

noted, had not yet given significant official pointers on India’s ties with

were still required. Turning to the country’s serious narcotics problem,

Afghanistan. These would likely continue to rely on a pragmatic and

Azami proposed that raising incomes might dent the resurgent opium

balanced approach. Despite an encouraging start by the new Indian and

economy. Regarding foreign relations, Ghani was also keen on better ties

Pakistani governments, bilateral relations remained tense and plagued

with Pakistan and the region. The Taliban had missed the ‘deal of the cen-

by strategic rivalry. In the context of Afghanistan in particular, the rela-

tury’ with president Karzai, but Azami stressed that ‘talks about talks’ were

tionship between the two countries was still fraught with distrust. And

cause for optimism. Azami expected Mullah Omar to resist any attempted

yet, Kangas noted, both India and Pakistan wanted a stable and secure

inroads by the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) in Afghanistan. An

Afghanistan, if perhaps more on their own terms. Listen to audio of the

audio recording of the event can be found here.

event here.

India and Her Neighbours

centre–state relations in India, democracies in all the region’s capitals,

On 29 October, Former High Commissioner of India to Bangladesh

achievement of these goals.

buoyant demographics and high market demand would facilitate the

Veena Sikri addressed an audience at Arundel House on India’s relations

The strength of Modi’s approach to regional foreign relations, Sikri

with her neighbours. She predicted that since Prime Minister Narendra

added, would soon be tested in the context of Bangladesh, which shares

Modi’s topmost priority was India’s economic and social development,

a border with the Indian state of West Bengal. The successful resolution

he would focus first on its immediate neighbours. Moreover, Sikri

of outstanding issues with Bangladesh before upcoming elections in West

explained, Modi’s diplomacy was focused on treating these neighbours

Bengal would be a significant victory for the new Indian government.

equally. His ministers and their departments were mobilised to imple-

Crucially, such resolution would need to include the signing of a compre-

ment agreements fast, and if bilateral agreements proved out of reach,

hensive water-sharing agreement. In this context, Sikri called for a bilateral

Modi would turn to ministerial meetings of the existing South Asian

water survey and better financial facilities to boost cross-border trade.

Association for Regional Cooperation or Bay of Bengal Initiative. Better

Audio of the event is available here.

IISS NEWS

DECEMBER 2014 | 13

SOUTH ASIA

INDIA

EXPERTS

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Foreign Policy The National Spokesperson for India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), M.J. Akbar, argued on 28 November that Narendra Modi’s foreign policy was largely influenced by his domestic priorities. Modi wanted to ‘uplift’ the remaining 30% of India’s least fortunate by ‘eradicating’ poverty, not merely ‘alleviating’ it. His timeframe for this extended beyond his current five-year term. With investment and governance reforms, Akbar, declared, Modi would shun the ‘dead hand of the state’. The prime minister had entrusted the creative minds of India’s private sector with raising employ-

Prime Minister Modi at the launch of the ‘Make in India’ initiative in New Delhi, September 2014 (Asish Maitra)

ment and industrial production, while the ‘Make in India’ policy was already at work in the defence sector.

bility’ along the frontier. By contrast, said Akbar, India’s western outlook

Meanwhile, Akbar noted, economic extroversion had initiated Modi’s

as far as North Africa was beset by instability and conflicts often steeped

‘Act East’ policy. With regard to foreign relations, Modi had paid early

in complex history. A modern and secular India, Akbar argued, had nei-

visits to South East Asia, Japan and the Pacific region. He had also devoted

ther any interests nor any strategic stakes to defend to the west. Therefore,

attention to India’s dealings with Nepal and Bangladesh. More impres-

Pakistan would have to make the first steps if it wanted India to feel com-

sively, India had successfully hosted Xi Jinping despite an unresolved

fortable with increased engagement. Listen to the full discussion on the

border dispute and China’s alleged promotion of a state of ‘stable insta-

IISS website.

KEY ADDRESS

OPPENHEIMER LECTURES

Oppenheimer Lecture: Human Security and Conflict Resolution in West Africa The 2014 Oppenheimer Lecture was delivered by veteran human-rights activist and former prime minister of Senegal Dr Aminata Touré, on 15 October.

Dr Touré discussed the risks posed to human security by the recent Ebola outbreak, which has strained West African healthcare systems and disrupted trade and travel patterns. However, it was ‘extreme poverty’ and the accompanying sense of hopelessness that she identified as the

Young women collect water in Senegal (World Women International)

greatest threat to peace in the region. She also noted the ongoing shift in the nature of conflict, from ‘classic’ wars between states to coups and violent efforts led by armed insurgencies.

Responding to questions about the deteriorating situation in Libya, Touré declared that it was time for Senegal and the African Union to speak out against the foreign financing of jihadis intent on toppling the country’s legitimate government. She added that the rest of the global community must also exhibit ‘international solidarity’ in the fight against conflict, disease and economic decline. As part of this process, she specifically urged politicians, world leaders and international organisations to do more to protect the rights of women affected by conflict.

The event was chaired by by Fleur de Villiers, Chair of the IISS Trustees.

Watch the full lecture on the IISS website.

Dr Aminata Touré, former prime minister of Senegal

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DECEMBER 2014

IISS NEWS

ASIA-PACIFIC

‘Changing Asia – A Japanese Perspective’

EVENTS

Ambassador Ichiro Fujisaki visited IISS–UK on 13 October to discuss Japanese perspectives on the changing balance of power in Asia. The event was chaired by Adam Ward, Director of Studies at the IISS. Previously an IISS Research Associate in London, Fujisaki went on to have an accomplished diplomatic career, including postings as Ambassador of Japan to the UN, the World Trade Organisation and the United States. He is currently President of the America–Japan Society and Distinguished Professor and Chairman of International Strategies at Sophia University, Tokyo. Although Asia was experiencing a period of political and economic flux, Fujisaki counselled against adapting too alarmist a reading of recent security and political developments in the region. While Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was seeking reforms to the country’s security policy, the essence of collective self-defence, Fujisaki argued, remained intact.

Fundamentally, Japan was not a revisionist power, but one which had a vested interest in safeguarding peace. Furthermore, recent leadership transitions in China and Japan had bred opportunities alongside existing challenges. Beijing, as much as Tokyo, Fujisaki noted, recognised the need to reduce the inter-state tensions that had undermined trust in the

Japanese Self Defence Force parade, 2013 (Rikujojieitai Boueisho)

EXPERTS

CYBER SECURITY

region. Watch the discussion here.

CHINA

TRANSNATIONAL THREATS AND POLITICAL RISK

‘China’s Internet’ Discussion Series On 27 October and 24 November, Director for Transnational Threats and Political Risk Nigel Inkster spoke at the first two of five planned events on China's cyber policies and capabilities. The first of these, ‘China's Internet: the Balance Between Openness and Security’, was chaired by IISS Director of Editorial, Senior Fellow for Geopolitical Risk and Economic Security and Editor of the Adelphi Books, Nicolas Redman. Inkster argued that unlike in Western liberal democracies, the development of the Internet in China had been driven by the country’s top political leadership to promote economic development. Progress, he explained, had been remarkable, with China on the way to becoming a top-tier global cyber power. The Chinese leader-

value system. Over the course of 2014, he noted, China had become more

ship had also managed to simultaneously develop extensive mechanisms

energetic and assertive in leveraging its status as a major global cyber

to monitor and censor online content and behaviours to maintain political

power to shape the international environment to its benefit. Audio of this

control. Click here to listen to the presentation.

event can be found here.

The second discussion, chaired by IISS Director of Studies Adam Ward,

The next three events will deal with cyber espionage, military cyber

covered ‘China's International Cyber-Security Policy’. Inkster argued that

capabilities and the global security implications of China's cyber policies

China had always sought to engage in international discussion on global

and capabilities. These presentations will form the basis of an Adelphi book

cyber governance and security as a way to defend and promote its own

to be published in 2015.

Appointments The IISS welcomes the following; Isabel DiVanna MD; Corporate and External Relations Tom Kelman Interim Head of Finance and Administration

IISS NEWS

Matthew Harries Managing Editor, Survival Ian Keddie Research Analyst, Defence and Military Analysis Brian Jack Senior Systems Administrator Tilly Grove Production and Press Assistant

DECEMBER 2014 | 15

DEFENCE AND MILITARY ANALYSIS

UNITED STATES

RUSSIA

SPACE

EXPERTS

US Arms Control Policy and Strategic Posture in the Face of a Resurgent Russia Speaking at IISS–London on 6 October, Elbridge Colby, Robert M. Gates Fellow at the Center for a New American Security, argued that in light of Russia’s behaviour towards Ukraine, Washington's model of post-Soviet deterrence – and its associated approach to nuclear weapons control – needed to be revisited. Russia had shown, he suggested, that it was prepared to use force or the threat of force in the European neighbourhood.

An unarmed US Air Force Minuteman III ICBM launches during a test, December 2013 (Yvonne Morales/US Air Force)

This meant that the US and its allies must be prepared to meet this challenge across a spectrum of military strategies, from the ‘little green men’ who had

of range performance.) The alleged violation, he maintained, was a ‘blow

proved so effective in Crimea, to a full range of conventional and nuclear

to trust’ that would not be repaired quickly. In the immediate post-Cold

capabilities. In the strategic weapons sphere, Colby contended that the

War era, arms control ‘became a mechanism for political rapprochement’

United States’ nuclear-weapons posture was not suited to countering Russia.

and an ‘instrument of warming ties’; this was no longer the case.

With regard to arms control, Colby stated that there was ‘a high degree

Colby emphasised that he was not arguing in favour of ‘unbridled stra-

of confidence’ in Washington that Russia had violated the Intermediate-

tegic competition’; rather, he proposed that Washington should ‘adapt its

Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. (There were both Russian cruise- and

deterrence and defence policy’ to suit the changed circumstances. Listen to

ballistic-missile systems that were candidates for treaty breaches in terms

the event on the IISS website.

Hybrid Warfare ‘Hybrid warfare’ was the topic of a high-level workshop held at Arundel House on 25 November. The term refers to the mix of military and nonmilitary methods employed, for example, by Russia in Ukraine. The tactics have sparked considerable discussion at NATO headquarters and among defence policymakers in member countries of the Alliance.

The workshop was the third in a series held by the IISS Defence and Military Analysis Programme, relating to the NATO summit that was held in Wales in September. The first seminar covered NATO as a maritime power, and the second considered NATO’s approach to capacity-building in fragile countries. The fourth and final workshop, to be held in early 2015,

Donestk People’s Republic fighter near the eastern Ukrainian city of Ilovaisk

will consider how to meet NATO’s future ambitions.

The series of events is supported by NATO Public Diplomacy, the UK Ministry of Defence (MoD) and the Foreign and Commonwealth Office.

Speakers at the November workshop included Professor Sir Lawrence Freedman, Professor of War Studies at King’s College London; Frank

Research Fellow for Security and Development; Emile Simpson, author of War From the Ground Up; Keir Giles, Director of the Conflict Studies Research Centre; and Rafal Rohozinski, CEO of the SecDev Group and IISS Consulting Senior Fellow for Cyber Security.

Hoffman of the US National Defence University, whose work helped

Sessions were chaired by Alexander Nicoll, Senior Fellow for Geo-

to create the concept of hybrid warfare; Andrew Budd, who is closely

economics and Defence, Nigel Inkster, Director for Transnational Threats

involved in developing policies on the subject at NATO headquarters; Peter

and Political Risk, and Bastian Giegerich, IISS Consulting Senior Fellow for

Watkins, Director General, Security Policy, UK MoD; Virginia Comolli, IISS

European Security and Policy Adviser, German Ministry of Defence.

Sustaining the Space Environment

of space debris. Regarding the last of these, efforts were underway to try to

Frank Rose, US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Space and

of debris. Rose pointed out that this issue was a problem for all space-far-

Defense Policy, made a welcome return to the Institute on 21 November.

ing nations, with the potential cause significant damage if not addressed.

Speaking at an event chaired by Douglas Barrie, Senior Fellow for Military

Referring to the 2007 test of an anti-satellite system by China that resulted

Aerospace, Rose explored issues including the further militarisation of

in the creation of a large and still extant debris field, Rose argued that the

space, anti-satellite weapons, missile defence and the continuing problem

risk of creating even more debris through similar tests must be avoided.

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DECEMBER 2014

agree on an international code of conduct that would reduce the creation

IISS NEWS

EXPERTS

Countering ISIS

ISLAMIC STATE

DEFENCE AND MILITARY ANALYSIS

Senior Fellow for Land Warfare Brigadier (Retd) Ben Barry analysed the US-led coalition air campaign against ISIS. He noted that since the start of coalition air strikes, ISIS’s advance had indeed been halted. But the campaign was likely to increase in complexity, with Iraqi politics serving as the critical limiting factor on military plans. Anti-ISIS operations in Syria, on the other hand, would significantly increase political risk. While Iran’s aims were aligned with the coalition in Iraq, Tehran and its ally Hezbollah have invested heavily in supporting the Assad regime – as had Russia. But the stated policy of the US and some of its key allies, including the UK, was that President Assad should step down. Attacking ISIS in Syria would therefore make the resolution of political and military contradictions unavoidable.

Director for Transnational Threats and Political Risk Nigel Inkster then discussed the role of Western ISIS recruits in the fight against extremism. He emphasised the importance of differentiating between ‘misguided’ young

US Air Force F-15s over northern Iraq after conducting airstrikes in Syria, September 2014 (Matthew Bruch/US Air Force)

people who arrive in Iraq and Syria to find themselves ‘out of their depth’ and truly dangerous extremists from whom the public must be protected.

While ISIS ideology was likely to attract those with ‘psychopathic tenden-

On 27 November, four IISS experts convened at Arundel House to discuss

cies’, most Western recruits were confined to menial jobs or used as ‘cannon

the rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) in Iraq and Syria. The

fodder’. Inkster concluded by suggesting that ISIS may eventually find itself

event was chaired by IISS Director of Studies Adam Ward.

‘overstretched’ as it attempts to control an increasingly large region.

Consulting Senior Fellow for the Middle East Toby Dodge discussed

Senior Fellow for Middle East Security Emile Hokayem focused on the

three principal causes behind the failure of the Iraqi political system and

campaign against ISIS in Syria. He noted that conflicting national interests

subsequent rise of ISIS. The first of these was coercive weakness, due to

undermined this effort, as demonstrated by Turkey’s refusal to participate

pervasive corruption undermining the Iraqi state and military. The incen-

without a shift in US policy toward the Assad regime. Hokayem also dis-

tive for Iraqi soldiers to defend such a state was extremely low, leading

cussed the West’s loss of credibility with the Syrian opposition, who sought

them to abandon the country’s cities. Secondly, infrastructural weakness

to prioritise the defeat of Assad over that of ISIS. ISIS, in turn, had taken

prevented necessary inter-ministerial coordination against ISIS. With

advantage of this sentiment to recruit among Syrian rebels, depicting itself

each ministry controlled by a different sect, a strong, joint approach

as the ‘spearhead’ in the fight against Assad. Hokayem also suggested that

was largely impossible. Lastly, Dodge explained how Iraq’s ‘sectarian

the decision to focus on battling ISIS in Kobane had allowed the group

organising impulse’ had ‘persecuted and alienated’ Sunnis, sparking the

to make gains elsewhere while the coalition was distracted by events in a

mobilisation of groups like ISIS who sought revenge for their mistreat-

single town.

ment.

The full discussion is available to watch on the IISS website.

Neither War Nor Peace: Why the Information Revolution Makes ‘Forever Wars’ a New Normal The twenty-first century’s information revolution creates networked, multi-player, and open-ended conflicts that occupy a grey zone between war and peace. This was the concept discussed in a 26 November talk by Emile Simpson at IISS–London. Simpson is a former British Army officer, author of War From the Ground Up: Twenty-First-Century Combat as Politics, and currently an Ernest May Fellow in History and Policy at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government.

Officers from the UK and Italian armed forces plan an exercise (Crown Copyright/ Obi Igbo)

Simpson proposed that this type of dispute is the new normal. His discussion, chaired by IISS Senior Fellow for Land Warfare Brigadier

of its influence on jihadists worldwide. Moreover, he added, the glo-

(Retd) Ben Barry, analysed the challenges that arise from the prolif-

balisation of the world economy meant that properly applied economic

eration and globalisation of information, allowing multiple actors to

sanctions were increasing in effectiveness. Simpson concluded by sug-

achieve degrees of connectivity with potentially revolutionary results.

gesting appropriate strategic responses to this development, including

Some of these effects, he explained, were visible in links between violent

handling conflicts in a way that made the lines between war and peace

extremists in the Maghreb, and in the rise of ISIS and rapid expansion

clearer.

IISS NEWS

DECEMBER 2014 | 17

SECURITY AND DEVELOPMENT

BRAZIL

THAILAND

Brazil’s Political Landscape: New Demands, New Actors

REFUGEES

EXPERTS

COIN in Thailand: Combining Security and Socio-economic Policies

President Dilma Rousseff gives an interview at the Presidential Palace (Brasil.gov.br)

Following the re-election of incumbent Dilma Rousseff to the Brazilian presidency, IISS–UK held a discussion exploring the new demands voiced

Muslim schoolchildren ready to enter school in Saiburi, in Thailand’s southern province of Pattani (Madaree Tohlala/AFP/Getty)

by the country’s middle class and their effects on the political process. The event featured two experienced observers of Brazilian politics: Marcus

On 28 October the Security and Development Programme hosted a dis-

Freitas, Professor of International Law and International Relations at

cussion meeting with Dr Jeff M. Moore, CEO of Muir Analytics and an

the Armando Alvares Penteado Foundation (FAAP), São Paulo, and Dr

established expert on Thai counterinsurgency (COIN).

Anthony Pereira, Director of the Brazil Institute at King’s College London.

The Thai government has a long history of dealing with insurgent

Research Analyst for Security and Development Antônio Sampaio chaired

movements. These have included a communist insurgency from 1965–

the discussion, which took place on 21 October.

1985, a southern separatist movement from 1980–98 and, from 2004

Freitas emphasised the growing role of individual figures, as opposed to political parties, in shaping Brazilian political discourse. This, Freitas added,

onward, the re-emergence of the southern separatist challenge, now featuring an Islamist component.

was linked to the lack of fundamental differences between the key policy

The meeting, chaired by Research Fellow for Security and

proposals of the main parties. Dr Pereira highlighted the economic debate at

Development Virginia Comolli, highlighted how successes had largely

the centre of the electoral campaign, proposing a restructuring of the devel-

rested on the implementation of socio-economic programmes to com-

opmental foundation of the state to allow a return to the high growth rates

plement traditional security approaches. During the communist COIN,

of the 2000s. He added that the so-called ‘Class C’ – the lower middle class –

for example, some intelligence officers lived in local villages, under the

had become the key battleground, with many voters split between the social

guise of doing anthropological research, to identify local needs and

development achievements of Rousseff and the business-friendly proposals

influential community leaders. Audio of the discussion is available

of the opposition. Listen to the discussion here.

here.

Migration from developing and conflict regions into Europe On 24 November, Research Fellow for Security and Development Virginia Comolli chaired a discussion aimed at addressing some of the trends and challenges regarding conflict-related displacement and migration. Andrej Mahecic, Senior External Relations Officer at the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) in London and Minister Vincenzo Celeste, Deputy Head of Mission at the Italian Embassy in London shared their views on the issue.

Mr Mahecic provided a detailed overview of this ‘unprecedented

The Italian navy helps a boatload of people trying to reach Europe from North Africa (UNHCR/Italian Navy/M. Sestini)

crisis’. He noted that 51.2 million people were currently in situations of forced displacement, describing this as ‘the largest humanitarian situation

had the concept of ‘burden sharing’ with regard to migration flows been

in the history of UNHCR’. Minister Celeste explained that EU migration

comprehensively applied among EU member states, both operationally

policy had recently reached a critical juncture. Only this autumn, he stated,

and financially. Listen to the full discussion on the IISS website.

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DECEMBER 2014

IISS NEWS

SECURITY AND DEVELOPMENT

EXPERTS

Modernising Drug Law Enforcement Arundel House hosted a seminar on 5–6 November to discuss new policies for reducing criminal violence, based on lessons learned in Europe and Latin America. The event was held in partnership with the International Drug Policy Consortium (IDPC) and Chatham House, with the support of the European Commission. Participants included high-level policymakers, diplomats, journalists, experts and representatives from international organisations such as Interpol, Ameripol, the United Nations and the Organization of American States (OAS).

Interpol-led Operation Lionfish targeted the maritime trafficking of drugs and firearms across Central America and the Caribbean (Interpol)

The seminar explored Latin America as an example of a region with complex drug-related conflicts. Speakers noted that armed groups

nected to one another would likely facilitate the formulation of better

were diversifying their operations to include other illegal activities

policies.

such as mining and money laundering. This raised issues about who,

Moving on to more global topics, participants discussed the problems

and what, should be targeted by law-enforcement agencies. Attendees

posed by online markets for drugs that relied on the so-called ‘Dark Net’.

suggested that law enforcement should focus on the supply chains for

They concluded by examining new metrics established to assess success in

criminal groups, since a better understanding of how groups were con-

law enforcement.

UK-Brazil Naval Dialogue

The sessions began with introductory remarks by senior IISS analysts, stimulating trilateral discussions between UK and Brazilian officials and

For the second year in a row, Arundel House hosted a discussion between

IISS experts. The first of these examined capacity building aimed at coun-

high-level representatives of the UK Ministry of Defence and the Brazilian

tering piracy in the Gulf of Guinea, along with the operational challenges

Navy. The event took place on 29 October and was chaired by Adam Ward,

that accompany this endeavour. This area is of strategic importance for

Director of Studies. Attendees included UK representatives involved in

Brazil, which maintains strong trade links with West Africa. Other issues

counter-narcotics, policy planning and strategy at the Ministry of Defence,

covered included the build-up of naval forces in South Asia, extrem-

Royal Navy, FCO and UK Trade & Investment. The Brazilian team was

ism and organised crime in West Africa and hybrid armed groups in

headed by the Navy’s Head of Strategy, Rear Admiral Flávio Rocha.

Colombia.

ASIA-PACIFIC

IISS–ASIA

Adelphi Launch: The Ties that Divide On 14 November, IISS–Asia launched the Institute’s latest Adelphi book:

ing Sino-Japanese tensions. He added

The Ties That Divide: History, Honour and Territory in Sino-Japanese Relations,

that longer-term stabilisation strate-

by Shangri-La Dialogue Senior Fellow for Asia-Pacific Security William

gies should include domestic efforts by

Choong. The event drew strong interest from private sector individuals,

both governments to temper aggressive

scholars and the media.

nationalism, as well as a joint reassess-

IISS–Asia Executive Director Tim Huxley chaired the event, opening the discussion with an overview of IISS activities before highlighting

ment of the two countries’ historical relationship.

the book’s pertinence to current debates about Sino-Japanese relations.

Choong argued that economic inter-

Choong then provided an assessment of the key problems plaguing this

dependence between China and Japan

relationship, noting how differences over historiography and disputed

would not necessarily rule out conflict.

claims to the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands had intensified the countries’

The subsequent discussion concluded

security dilemma. Given the high probability of accidental escalation sur-

that the two countries needed to put aside their differences – at best,

rounding the islands, Choong advocated a return to the 1972 ‘Shanghai

this would increase the likelihood of a longer-term rapprochement; at

Communiqué’, an agreement that saw the deferral of the island dispute

worst, it would prevent the further deterioration of their bilateral rela-

and the establishment of confidence-building measures aimed at reduc-

tionship.

IISS NEWS

DECEMBER 2014 | 19

NON-PROLIFERATION AND DISARMAMENT

IRAN

CHINA

NORTH KOREA

EXPERTS

After the Deadline: Assessing the Nuclear Negotiations with Iran On 28 November, four days after the second deadline for the negotiation of a final deal on Iran’s nuclear programme, the IISS hosted a panel to assess the talks. The event was chaired by IISS Non-proliferation and Disarmament Programme Director Mark Fitzpatrick. Panellists discussed the implications of the extension, the state of the Iranian economy and what potential sanctions relief might achieve, and the current domestic political environment. Speakers included Ali Ghezelbash, an independent strategic consultant in politics and the energy industry; Rouzbeh Parsi, a Senior Lecturer at the Department of Human Rights Studies at Lund University, Sweden, and former Senior Analyst at the EU Institute for Security Studies (EUISS); and Ariane Tabatabai, an associate and former Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center. The panel identified Iran’s enrichment programme, the timeframe of a final agreement, and the type and timeline of sanctions relief as the

P5+1 Talks on Iran’s nuclear programme at the UN in Geneva, November 2014 (US Mission Geneva/Eric Bridiers)

remaining sticking points. Overcoming these final hurdles would be difficult, especially as hardliners in Tehran were deliberately trying to box

pline, but this would require a degree of sanctions relief, which could only

in the negotiators so that they could not accept further compromises.

be obtained through a final agreement. Watch the event on the IISS website

Economically, the Rouhani administration was focused on better disci-

here.

Regional Reactions to Chinese Nuclear Posture On 27 October, the IISS held a workshop in Seoul, South Korea, in part-

ties, this meeting considered nuclear security more broadly, including

nership with the Institute for Foreign Affairs and National Security

regional responses to nuclear postures and the continuing challenge

(IFANS) and the Korea Institute of Nuclear Nonproliferation and Control

posed by North Korea. Further sessions were also devoted to discussing

(KINAC). The event was part of a project to strengthen cooperation

the likely contributions to the 2016 Nuclear Security Summit and fuel

between Chinese and Western policymaking communities on nuclear

cycle choices in the region. The workshop attracted more than 30 experts

issues. Expanding on previous discussions exploring nuclear security

from China, the Republic of Korea, Japan, Russia, the United Kingdom

cooperation in the narrow sense of the physical security of nuclear facili-

and the United States.

MEMBERSHIP

Membership Events Throughout October and November, the IISS hosted several events for current and prospective mem-

The Military Balance 2015 The forthcoming Military Balance 2015 will be launched on 12 February 2015.

bers. On 1 October, Dana Allin (Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy and Transatlantic Affairs; Editor of Survival), Mark Fitzpatrick (Director of the Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Programme) and Samuel Charap (Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia) spoke at an open house for graduate students in Washington. The three experts introduced the Institute’s key publications and highlighted upcoming public events scheduled for autumn 2014.

On 9 October, Professor Sir Michael Howard (President Emeritus), Adam Ward (Director of Studies), Hervé Le Mahieu (Research Associate for Political Economy and Security; Coordinator for Research and Fundraising), Dina Esfandiary (Research Associate, Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Programme) and Joseph Dempsey (Research Analyst, Military Balance) addressed current and prospective young professional members on the history and work of the Institute at Arundel House.

Most recently, Mark Fitzpatrick, Nigel Inkster (Director for Transnational Threats and Political Risk) and Virginia Comolli (Research Fellow for Security and Development) spoke to Institute members in London on 19 November. They discussed their roles at the IISS before inviting members to share their suggestions on the directions of IISS research.

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DECEMBER 2014

IISS NEWS

EXPERTS

ASIA-PACIFIC

CYBER SECURITY

NATO

IISS–US

‘Great Rapprochement? Strategic Relations in Asia’ Leading up to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meetings in Beijing, Senior Fellow for Naval Forces and Maritime Security Christian Le Mière visited IISS–US to discuss expectations for the international summit, along with future regional trends. Recalling the increase in diplomatic communication and drawdown of maritime patrols, Le Mière suggested a potential rapprochement in Asian politics may be underway. While still addressing the obstacles of Japanese and Chinese domestic politics and China’s pursuit of a hegemonic status, comments focused on efforts made to lessen tensions between China, the Korean Peninsula and Japan.

Participants also noted that recent progress made across Southeast Asia hinted at the emergence of a less confrontational environment. Chaired

by IISS–US Managing Director Bryce Campbell, this event took place on 6 November and can be viewed on the IISS website.

Chinese President Xi Jinping at the 22nd Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Meeting in Beijing, China (Xinhua/Pang Xinglei)

‘Cyber Warfare and Sino-American Crisis Instability’ On 12 November the Honourable David C. Gompert, Visiting Professor at the United States Naval Academy and Senior Fellow at the RAND Corporation, and Dr Martin Libicki, Senior Management Scientist at the RAND Corporation and a professor at the Pardee RAND Graduate School, spoke at IISS–US. Addressing the crisis instability of cyber warfare between China and the US, they argued that as these militaries continued

A Chinese Long March-4B rocket carrying the CBERS-4 satellite is launched in Taiyuan, Shanxi Province, December 2014 (Xinhua/Tian Zhaoyun)

to develop their cyber capabilities, they were inevitably rendering any type of confrontation more dangerous for both countries. Gompert and

attack. The speakers warned that as each country became increasingly fear-

Libicki contended that following this path would leave each side with

ful of what the other was capable of in a society where cyber norms do not

several motivations to attack pre-emptively rather than later on, and with

exist, any crisis scenario had the potential to provoke a rapid escalation.

tremendous force. Cyber warfare, they also noted, becomes more fragile

This event was chaired by Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia Samuel

when trying to gauge the magnitude, intent and targeting limitations of an

Charap and is available to watch on the IISS website.

‘The New Landscape of European Security’ On 10 September, US Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs Derek Chollet discussed the new phase of security operations NATO would face after its operations wound down in Afghanistan. NATO’s newest security concerns were much closer to home – namely, the crisis in Ukraine and the rise of Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS). The US, Chollet explained, sought to assist its

Members hold a working session on ‘Future NATO’ at the NATO Summit Wales 2014 (Crown copyright/Tom Robinson)

European partners in both of these areas, as the Alliance ‘doesn’t have

Chollet argued that if Russia stopped pursuing destabilising politics

the luxury of choosing’. Regarding the Ukraine crisis, Chollet said that

in its neighbourhood, the West would welcome it as a partner. Despite

the US had been working to develop a bilateral security relationship

disagreements and Russia’s aggressive behaviour, there were still issues

with Ukraine. Yet with the latter still facing many challenges, rang-

that require US–Russia cooperation in order to be addressed. These

ing from corruption to heavily armed separatists, the US and other

include Iran’s nuclear programme and Syria’s chemical weapons pro-

NATO member-states had decided to develop this relationship slowly.

gramme. This discussion, held at IISS–US, was moderated by IISS Senior

Ukraine, for example, still had not received lethal assistance from any

Fellow for Russia and Eurasia Samuel Charap and can be viewed on the

NATO member-state.

IISS website.

IISS NEWS

DECEMBER 2014 | 21

PUBLICATIONS

New Adelphi Books Adelphi 445 The Ties That Divide William Choong The

cool-headed

decision

of

China and Japan in the 1970s to shelve contentious issues such as Japan’s wartime record and the question of sovereignty over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands has been overturned. In its place, leaders and publics are indulging in nationalism and an inclination toward irrational

mediated through politics, bureaucracy and

held by IISS in its Middle East office in Manama.

or risky behaviour. Both nations have invested

ideology. The simplest explanation is that

Featuring essays by nine IISS analysts and a

much more in their claims to the islands than is

Chinese leaders, taken as a whole, have tended

number of outside experts, the book examines

justified by their value or the costs of an open

to place relatively little emphasis on the sort of

the most important geostrategic issues in the

conflict over them. Neither the cultural and

technical details that dominated US discussions

region, including the myriad security challenges

linguistic affinities between the two countries

regarding deterrence. Such profound differ-

it faces. These interlinked papers focus in par-

nor their economic interdependence preclude

ences in thinking about nuclear weapons could

ticular on the regional ramifications of the civil

the possibility that the dispute over the islands

lead to catastrophic misunderstanding in the

war in Syria and the effects of the United States’

could escalate and even lead to war.

event of a military crisis between Beijing and

changing posture in the Middle East.

In this Adelphi William Choong argues that

Washington.

The aim of this Adelphi is to both highlight and develop the ongoing discussions and

there is a pressing need for China and Japan to work out bilateral arrangements to prevent a fur-

Adelphi 447–448

debates about Gulf security that have taken

ther deterioration in relations. To identify such

Middle Eastern Security, the US Pivot and the

place at the Manama Dialogue over the previous

steps, he explores their disputes over historiog-

Rise of ISIS

decade, and that will continue to do so over the

raphy and territory, and how these are affected

Edited by Toby Dodge and Emile Hokayem

next ten years. As such, it capitalises on the IISS’s

by their military postures, the US-Japanese alli-

To mark the tenth anniversary of the IISS

global reputation not only as the world leader in

ance and the regional security architecture.

Manama Dialogue process and to capitalise on

convening para-diplomatic events, but also as a

the new light it has shed on security issues in

provider of the best possible objective informa-

Adelphi 446

the Gulf and the wider Middle East, this Adelphi

tion and analysis on global military and political

Paper Tigers: China’s Nuclear Posture

brings together the results of two workshops

developments.

Jeffrey Lewis China’s nuclear arsenal has long been an enigma.

It is a small force, based almost exclusively on

Survival: Global Politics and Strategy

land-based ballistic missiles, maintained at a low level of alert and married to a no-first-use doctrine – all choices that would seem to invite attack in a crisis. Chinese leaders, when they have spoken about nuclear weapons, have artic-

In the December 2014–January 2015 issue of

ulated ideas that sound odd to the Western ear.

Survival, Lawrence Freedman examines Russia’s

Mao Zedong’s oft-quoted remark that ‘nuclear

strategy in the Ukraine conflict; Emile Hokayem

weapons are a paper tiger’ seems to be bluster

analyses the Syrian civil war in light of competi-

or madness.

tion between Iran and the Gulf states; and Robert

China’s nuclear forces are now too important

Ayson and Desmond Ball explore the dangers

to remain a mystery. Yet Westerners continue

of confrontation between China, Japan and the

to disagree about basic factual information

United States in the Asia-Pacific. Also in the issue:

concerning one of the world’s most impor-

Alexander Nicoll on Britain’s politics of union and

tant nuclear-weapons states. This Adelphi

immigration; Henri J. Barkey on Turkey’s growing

book documents and explains the evolution

isolation; and Alexa van Sickle on governance in

of China’s nuclear forces in terms of histori-

South Africa.

cal, bureaucratic and ideological factors. There is a strategic logic at work, but that logic is 22

|

DECEMBER 2014

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