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December 2015

The 11th IISS Manama Dialogue 2015

Riyadh Yaseen, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Yemen; Dr Abdullatif Al Zayani, Secretary General, Cooperation Council of the Arab States of the Gulf; Helen Clark, Administrator, UN Development Programme; Dr Taïeb Baccouche, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Tunisia; Fadila Souissi, Presenter, Sky News Arabia

The 2015 IISS Manama Dialogue, in common with

The debate opened with the question of how

For the Foreign Minister of Yemen, Riyadh

the 2013 and 2014 Dialogues, opened with a panel

to tackle extremism more effectively, consider-

Yaseen, the current problems in his country stem

debate moderated and televised by Sky News

ing that much effort has already been expended,

from a former head of state, an internal rebellion,

Arabia. The 2015 theme was ‘Extremism, Stability,

seemingly with little to show for it. The Secretary

and the involvement of an external power, Iran.

and Development: the future of the Middle East’.

General of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC),

He also argued that extremism now has taken on a

It brought together some familiar regional themes

Dr Abdullatif Al Zayani, insisted that what is hap-

different form from previous years, and compared

concerning the causes of the extremism and insta-

pening does not reflect the will of the people of

to the challenges posed by al-Qaeda and Hizbul-

bility prevalent across the Middle East, but also

the region. He introduced what was to become a

lah, with new groups wanting to become major

explored the possibilities and challenges of a new,

broad theme in the discussion, that intervention

players. The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Tunisia,

more holistic, approach to tackling them. The three

from outside – and in particular the 2003 invasion

Dr Taïeb Baccouche, focused on the intervention

Arab participants brought their different perspec-

of Iraq and its aftermath – had created a vacuum

in Libya as the catalyst for the problems in Tuni-

tives from across the region, while the former New

in which extremism had developed. Dr Al Zayani

sia’s neighbourhood, and the collapse of a central

Zealand Prime Minister, Helen Clark, now the

insisted that the persistence of the Israeli–Pales-

authority there. Dr Baccouche argued that new

Administrator of the United Nations Development

tinian problem remained a key driver of extrem-

institutions need to be fostered quickly in Libya

Programme (UNDP), explored both the opportuni-

ism and had to be addressed. He also argued that

and elsewhere, or there will be growing extremist

ties and potential problems arising from a develop-

extremism is not just a problem of Muslim youth

alliances through Africa involving groups such as

mental approach to dealing with the crises across

contained within the region, but is now present

Boko Haram and al-Shabaab, with repercussions

the Middle East.

across all regions.

throughout the region and in Europe.

MANAMA DIALOGUE

GULF STATES

MIDDLE EAST

FOREIGN POLICY

Clark addressed the role that development can play in combating these challenges.

She argued that extremism in the form of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham is a twentyfirst century phenomenon, drawing on technology to groom and recruit jihadists online; those seeking to counter the threat have not yet matched this level of sophistication. She underscored the relevance of a sustainable development agenda, as inextricably linked with a peace agenda, and essential for the region with its burgeoning youth demographic. Clark stressed the importance of education but cautioned that it was equally important to ensure that a good education will lead to good job opportunities, otherwise it would become a source of frustration.

Turning to the Iran nuclear deal, Dr Al Zayani said that he hoped that the unfreezing of Iranian assets would lead to greater prosperity for the

Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi, President of the Arab Republic of Egypt

Iranian people, rather than increased meddling

by Iran in the affairs of other states. Mr Yaseen contrasted Iran’s intervention in Yemen, which

Keynote Speech

the historical moderation of Arab societies, and

he said had had no positive effect, with that of

The President of the Arab Republic of Egypt,

quickly came closer to more extremist organisa-

the GCC, which he welcomed. Clark, taking up

Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi, delivered the Keynote

tions. He also regretted that some outside ‘par-

the theme of stabilising Yemen, said that the

Address of the eleventh IISS Manama Dialogue.

ties’ betted on their success, putting at risk Arab

UNDP is already working on a long-term post-

Focusing on the threats of terrorism and extrem-

national security.

crisis needs assessment which should involve

ism, Al-Sisi warned that Middle Eastern states

The state response to these challenges, Al-

not just rebuilding key physical infrastructure,

and the regional order were both at risk. He

Sisi argued, should range beyond military

but also society.

stressed that Arab nation-states are endangered

confrontation and security arrangements: it is

Baccouche rejected the notion that Tuni-

by ‘foreign militias and organisations’ that chal-

necessary to address the economic and social

sia exports extremism and defended his gov-

lenge the foundations of modern governance

aspirations of citizens. He argued that a poor

ernment’s policy response to the threat of

and authority. He bemoaned the weakening or

socio-economic situation adversely affects a

extremism, including the temporary closure of

collapse of the rule of law in several Arab coun-

population’s notion of the state and blurs the

mosques, which he said had been taken over by

tries and the emergence of ‘sectarian, religious,

difference between state and government.

militias. He acknowledged that this was contro-

local and other conflicts’. As a result, individu-

‘National security in the Arab world is so threat-

versial. Additional measures included religious

als and groups are resorting to narrow identities

ened that it now requires – demands – the pro-

education and monitoring of the internet, as well

instead of seeking the protection of the state. In

tection of what remains of the states and their

as efforts to improve the economy. Addressing

particular, Al-Sisi denounced the manipulation

institutions, and the renewal of Arab citizens’

the problem of extremism across the Maghreb,

of sectarianism by groups with specific political

faith in the ability to live together in a state that

he made an implicit appeal for assistance by

agendas that ran counter to the cohesion of Arab

is cognisant of their rights and has the ability to

noting that technical capabilities were needed

societies and the authority of the state. This, he

protect them,’ Al-Sisi emphasised.

to properly control borders, but argued that the

argued, has had a detrimental impact on the

heart of the problem was in Libya, not Tunisia.

‘role and prestige’ of the state.

Regionally, Al-Sisi reasserted Egypt’s commitment to the establishment of a Palestinian

In response to questions from the audi-

Al-Sisi then condemned the hijacking of

state within the June 1967 borders and with

ence, Dr Al Zayani defended differing GCC

Arab uprisings by ‘certain currents employ-

East Jerusalem as capital. This, he said, would

approaches to counterterrorism, and high-

ing religion for their own political purposes’,

undercut the appeal of extremism. He also reaf-

lighted the initiative of the late King Abdullah

a clear reference to the Muslim Brotherhood.

firmed Egypt’s support for UN efforts to settle

of Saudi Arabia in 2005 to create an international

He lamented that ‘some believed that these

the Libyan crisis through the establishment of a

centre to combat terrorism with US$110 million

currents were politically moderate and able to

national unity government that recognises the

in funding. One intervention from the audience

contain the aspirations of their people and able

results of previous elections.

called on the Gulf Arab leaders to be more open

to contain and channel the forces of extremism

Regarding the Syrian conflict, Al-Sisi reiter-

to accepting constructive criticism and a freer

and terrorism’. Al-Sisi claimed that [Islamist

ated Egypt’s support for UN resolution efforts,

press. But the GCC Secretary General insisted

movements] ‘did not understand the history of

and called for a political settlement that involved

that Gulf Arab leaders are very accessible and

Arab societies nor did [they] strive to achieve

regional and international powers. He stressed

that the media should raise its standards of

the aims of their revolutions’. These movements

the importance of pursuing the fight against ter-

accuracy.

sought to monopolise politics and parted with

rorist groups in Syria. He noted Egypt’s efforts

2

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DECEMBER 2015

IISS NEWS

DEFENCE POLICY

IRAN

ISLAMIC STATE

MANAMA DIALOGUE

to create a unified vision among Syrian opposition forces, notably by hosting conferences and encouraging the adoption of a road map toward a negotiated political solution, without external interference. A Syrian settlement must be inclusive and produce a healthy relationship between the state and its citizens, he said.

The president added that Egypt also supported the efforts of its Gulf allies to aid the government of Yemen against what he described as ‘the forces of terrorism and extremism.’ It is important, he said, to preserve the country’s cohesion and integrity. Al-Sisi concluded by emphasising Egypt’s readiness to contribute to the stability and prosperity of the region. He noted Egypt’s attachment to the principle of non-interference in the domestic affairs of sovereign states and welcomed international and regional cooperation based on this principle.

Sheikh Khalid bin Ahmed Al Khalifa, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Bahrain

Antony Blinken, Deputy Secretary of State, US

Deputy Secretary of State Anthony Blinken

(ISIS) by a coalition that ‘didn’t exist’ 14 months

port for terrorist groups including Hizbullah.

led off the first plenary session, ‘US Policy and

earlier. With the aid of more than 7,700 air-

In Bahrain, he said, Iran had ‘conducted smug-

Regional Security,’ with a defence of US policy

strikes, the coalition had forced ISIS ‘to change

gling operations to bring in explosives and

as the art of the possible. He derided the ‘now

how it conducts military operations, impeded

weapons, including C4 Claymore mines and

fashionable’ argument ‘that the United States

its command and control, confronted its propa-

AK-47 assault rifles’. GCC states were ready

is disengaged from the Middle East’. The chal-

ganda machine, and deprived it of 30% of the

to improve relations with Iran, but it would

lenges in the region ‘defy silver-bullet solu-

territory in Iraq that it once held’.

be difficult ‘when Iranian officials publicly

First Plenary Session: US Policy and Regional Security

tions’, he said, but in a ‘broader definition of

The deputy secretary spoke against the back-

boast about having captured four Arab capi-

engagement’, using ‘all sources of American

drop of Russia’s recent intervention in Syria. He

tals’. Just as Iran’s nuclear program was con-

power’, including military power, the Ameri-

suggested that the ‘law of unintended conse-

tained and ‘hopefully pacified’ by international

can commitment remains strong. To be sure, he

quences’ might recoil against Moscow: the inter-

action, there was a need for international unity

added, the Obama administration still insists

vention had ‘increased Russia’s leverage over

and vigilance against the problems ‘caused by

on heeding the ‘lessons we’ve learned over a

Assad’, but it would also ‘increase the conflict’s

Iran’s actions in the region’. In that regard, he

decade of sacrifice about the effectiveness and

leverage over Russia’. In Blinken’s optimistic

defended the GCC intervention in Yemen to

sustainability of indefinite and undefined mili-

interpretation, this would increase the Russian

prevent ‘an extremist proxy movement with ties

tary interventions that have vast unintended

interest in a political solution, and the US was

to Iran and Hizbullah’ from taking power.

consequences’.

ready to work with Russia on common interests,

Sheikh Khalid concluded by warning that

Blinken defended the Iran nuclear deal,

including preserving Syrian unity and defeating

recent violence in Jerusalem had the potential to

arguing that ‘after two years of negotiations,

ISIS. But the US would still insist on a ‘political

‘anger almost a third of the world’s population,’

every single one of Iran’s pathways to a bomb

transition that leads to [Syrian President Bashar

and called on the Israeli government to live up

is blocked … far into the future.’ But he also

al-Assad’s] departure’.

to the agreement with Jordan on jurisdiction of the Al-Aqsa Mosque.

insisted that the administration harboured ‘no

Bahrain’s Foreign Minister, Sheikh Khalid

illusions’ about the agreement’s wider signifi-

bin Ahmed Al Khalifa, in his address rejected

In the Q&A session that followed, Dr Albadr

cance. The US remained focused on Iran’s sup-

the notion that the fight against ISIS should take

Al Shateri asked Sheikh Khalid whether he

port for terrorism and instigation of regional

precedence over a solution to the Syrian civil war

believed the nuclear deal had ‘emboldened’

instability, and would meet those challenges

‘as outlined in the Geneva I Peace Conference’.

Iran, and he challenged Deputy Secretary

with intensive security cooperation, including

The extremist group, he added, was a symptom

Blinken on whether the US, even if it remained

the linking up of missile-defence systems on the

not a cause of the Syrian crisis. ‘There are those

focused on ‘strategic areas like the Gulf’, was

Arabian Peninsula, special-operations training,

who will say that we must defeat Daesh [ISIS]

in fact disengaging from the quest for a two-

bolstered cyber security and sales of advanced

first, before any of this can take place, but Daesh

state solution to the Israeli–Palestinian conflict.

military equipment to most of the Gulf Arab

can only be defeated by a unified Syrian front

Sheikh Khalid said that, so far, he had not per-

states.

against it.’

ceived any change in Iran’s behaviour in the

Blinken coupled this security coopera-

The foreign minister insisted that ISIS was

region since the deal was announced. Blinken

tion with an optimistic assessment of progress

‘not the only terrorist threat we face in the

responded that cooperation between the US and

against the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham

region’, and pointed to Iran’s continued sup-

Gulf Arab countries did embody ‘a clear vision’

IISS NEWS

DECEMBER 2015 | 3

MANAMA DIALOGUE

UNITED KINGDOM

MIDDLE EAST

IRAQ

BAHRAIN

timing for Assad’s departure. Ideally, this afternoon, Jubeir replied. The Saudis hope that Russian President Vladimir Putin used Assad’s visit to Moscow to persuade him it is time to accept a political transition. Answering another question, Jubeir described the Vienna talks as productive because all issues were put on the table and there were no holds barred.

Frank Gardner, the BBC Security Correspondent, asked El Araby if he regretted the Arab League’s request in 2011 for international military intervention in Libya. ‘No’ was the answer, because of the importance of helping Libya at the time. The mistake was the international community’s subsequent failure to follow up by helping build institutions and collect arms. In response to a question from Faisal Abbas, Editor-in-Chief of the English service of Al Arabiya News, El Araby said the call of the Arab League Adel Al Jubeir, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Saudi Arabia

Nabil El Araby, Secretary General, League of Arab States

last March to establish a joint Arab military force was very important, and that some matters still needed to be discussed before the force could be declared ready.

of joint work to counter Iranian threats. He like-

region’s economic development and invest-

wise insisted the US was fully committed to

ment, youth and technology. On Syria, he

In a second round of the Q&A, Raghida

supporting a settlement of the Israel–Palestine

said the just-concluded nine-hour meeting in

Dergham, Executive Chairman of the Beirut

conflict but noted that ‘we cannot want peace

Vienna, which included Iran for the first time,

Institute and Senior Diplomatic Correspondent

more than the parties themselves’.

reached agreement on a number of issues: the

of Al Hayat, asked about the muted 18–24-

Blinken’s assessment of Russian staying

importance of maintaining Syria’s territorial

month timing of a political-transition period for

power and future conduct was also questioned

integrity and unity, the need for all ethnic and

Syria. Jubeir said the thinking is that an interim

pointedly by Professor François Heisbourg,

religious groups and minorities to enjoy pro-

governing council could be in place in four

Chairman of the IISS, and Bloomberg colum-

tection and rights, and new elections based on

to six months but that holding an election in

nist Josh Rogin. Blinken responded that Assad

the Geneva I principles. The two fundamental

Syria might take 18 months. Meanwhile, Assad

‘cannot win and take back his country’, and so

issues on which the parties remained at odds

should leave at the beginning of this process.

Russia will come to understand that there is no

concerned the timing of the departure of Assad

Responding to questions about the US com-

military solution to keeping him in power. He

and the timing and means of the withdrawal of

mitment to the Gulf region, Jubeir painted

also noted, in response to comments suggesting

foreign – particularly Iranian – forces. Regard-

a positive picture: the number of US troops

that US military action against ISIS had been

ing Yemen, Jubeir spoke positively about forces

deployed there is almost at a record high and

ineffective, that the group’s forward momen-

supporting the legitimate government having

the decisions reached between the US and GCC

tum in Iraq had been halted and that it con-

reclaimed most of the country and freed up

states at Camp David with regard to intelli-

trolled 30% less territory than a year ago.

ports for humanitarian assistance.

gence sharing, cyber security, ballistic-missile

Dr Nabil El Araby, Secretary General of the

defence and maritime patrols are all being

Second Plenary Session: The Region after the

Arab League, regretted that the Iran nuclear

implemented via ongoing working groups. He

Nuclear Negotiations

deal did not cover the whole Middle East and

said America’s commitment to the security of

Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Adel

address Israel’s nuclear programme. Nor did

Gulf countries is at an all-time high and that

Al Jubeir, opened the second session on ‘The

the deal address any aspect of Iran’s interven-

the ‘historic and strategic’ relationship in all

Region after the Nuclear Negotiations’ by wel-

tion in Syria. Expanding on the Palestine issue,

areas has gone from strength to strength. The

coming the accord as a means of preventing Iran

El Araby characterised the issue as a legal

GCC states were regularly briefed about the

from acquiring a nuclear capability. Yet the jury

question of one party – Israel – needing to ful-

nuclear negotiations by senior US officials. And

is out on whether the deal will have a positive

fill its obligations. He urged the international

Saudi Arabia has decided to open an embassy

impact by integrating Iran with the region. It is

community to take responsibility for ending

in Baghad and a consulate in Erbil.

Iran’s choice whether to use for productive or

the conflict. Both in Palestine and in Syria, the

destructive purposes the funds freed up by the

Security Council has abjured its responsibility

Third Plenary Session: The Challenges of

lifting of sanctions, he said.

due to the veto system. El Araby recommended

Extremism

that the entire collective-security system of the

The third plenary session focused on ‘The

UN be reviewed.

Challenges of Extremism’ in the region. Philip

Jubeir noted the remaining challenges associated with Syria, Iraq, Yemen and terrorism.

He outlined each but, ‘as an optimist’, also

Dr Abdulaziz Sager, Chairman of the Gulf

Hammond, the United Kingdom’s Secretary of

described the opportunities presented by the

Research Center, asked about the preferred

State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs,

4

|

DECEMBER 2015

IISS NEWS

INSURGENCY

FRANCE

IRAQ

MANAMA DIALOGUE

Philip Hammond, Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs, UK

Salahuddin Rabbani, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Afghanistan

Dr Khaled Khoja, President, National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces

argued that the struggle against extremist

ist narratives. In Afghanistan, the government

tance of building grassroots support to create a

Islamist terrorism was existential in the Gulf

was open to peace talks with armed oppo-

new future for Syria. Kwon Hee-seog, Director-

region, but affected the UK as well. Islamist

nents, provided they were ready to renounce

General, African and Middle Eastern Affairs

extremism, the Secretary of State suggested,

violence. He emphasised that, in light of the

Bureau, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Republic

had deep roots and a wide reach because it was

regional and global dimensions of Afghani-

of Korea, focused his question on Afghanistan

based on a corrupt interpretation of religion.

stan’s fight against extremism, it was vital

and enquired about the possibility of involving

The extreme doctrine espoused by ISIS sought

that the international community stayed the

elders in counter-extremism policies. Rabbani

to destroy nation states and replace them with

course. Otherwise the hard-earned gains of

responded that jirgas were an important tool for

its so-called caliphate, Hammond said. It was

recent years could be lost.

addressing extremism and that Afghans could

necessary, he argued, to defeat the group both

Dr Khaled Khoja, President of the National

draw on their country’s heritage of tolerance.

militarily and ideologically, if a lasting victory

Coalition

and

Many questions were addressed to Ham-

was to be secured.

Opposition Forces, insisted that the principal

mond, and regarded the UK’s counter-extrem-

Thereafter Hammond dwelt on UK plans

cause of extremism in Syria was the govern-

ism strategy. Walid Abukhaled, Chief Execu-

to tackle extremism at home, through an

ment’s heavy military response to demands

tive for Saudi Arabia, Northrop Grumman

approach based on four strands: countering the

for change. The Syrian regime, Khoja argued,

Corporation, asked whether the UK risked

ideology of extremism, building social cohe-

undertook steps to attract or at least enable

giving the impression that it was fighting

sion, supporting moderate mainstream voices

extremists in Syria to bolster its narrative that

Islam. Hammond said there was a clear dis-

and disrupting the extremists wherever they

the government was fighting terrorism rather

tinction between Islam and extremism – but

seek to operate. He conceded that the UK had

than a legitimate uprising. As a result of the

also that policymakers could not effectively

pursued well-intended policies in the past that

fighting, Syrian national identity had been

tackle the latter if the failed to acknowledge

might inadvertently have nurtured the threat

destroyed, with the country divided along

the link to Islam and the religious authority

that now needed to be confronted.

ethnic and sectarian lines.

that extremists claimed for themselves. He

for

Syrian

Revolutionary

Salahuddin Rabbani, Minister of Foreign

Khoja stated that the failure of the interna-

went on to stress the importance of disrupting

Affairs of Afghanistan, reminded the audience

tional community to protect civilians in Syria

the flow of money and fighters from the UK to

of his country’s long struggle against extrem-

amounted to a regional and global failure. A

Syria and on developing convincing counter-

ism. Now ISIS was trying to expand its base

new national project to unite the country is

narratives that would combat ISIS ideologi-

in the country. A network of terrorist organ-

needed, he argued, and the opposition must

cally. Dr Hisham Hellyer, Non-Resident Fellow

isations that included al-Qaeda, the Islamic

fight extremism, protect civilians, establish

at the Brookings Institute, asked whether the

Movement of Uzbekistan and the East Turke-

basic governance and deliver rudimentary

UK strategy’s provisions for revoking the Brit-

stan Islamic Movement also sought to destabi-

services. In Khoja’s view, Iranian and Russian

ish citizenship of extremists might undermine

lise Afghanistan. The country’s armed forces,

meddling in the crisis made this even more

societal cohesion. Hammond responded that

he noted, still lack critical enablers and remain

difficult to achieve.

the provision applied to dual nationals who

In the ensuing debate, Khoja suggested that

attacked the values which British society was

Rabbani argued it was of critical impor-

Ba’ath party affiliates were actively involved in

based on; it was an important tool for the gov-

tance to strengthen efforts to counter extrem-

ISIS. He reminded the audience of the impor-

ernment, he insisted.

in need of international support.

IISS NEWS

DECEMBER 2015 | 5

MANAMA DIALOGUE

YEMEN

SAUDI ARABIA

COUNTER TERRORISM

the Iraqi government control Iranian-backed popular militias, or is it the other way around?

Al Obeidi answered by distinguishing between the government-controlled Popular Mobilisation Forces, an institution answering to the Iraqi prime minister, with an independent budget, working often in combination with the regular Iraqi armed forces – and other ‘illegal’ armed militias.

The regular Iraqi armed forces are themselves under considerable strain. Al Obeidi noted that they had suffered a significant setback in the summer of 2014 under the advance of ISIS, and were not helped by the financial pressure of a collapse in the price of oil. Iraq’s military needs help, he declared, from regional and international partners. Nor will it be easy, as Al Obeidi conceded in response to a question from IISS Consulting Senior Fellow for the Dr Ursula von der Leyen, Federal Minister of Defence, Germany

Khaled Al Obeidi, Minister of Defence, Iraq

Middle East Toby Dodge, to push forward the development of the Iraqi National Guard.

For Von der Leyen, the Middle East today

Opening the debate, Von der Leyen

demands ‘a new partnership of dedication’:

Coalitions in the Middle East

insisted that for Europe indifference to the

joint political will, an understanding of whom

The fourth plenary, entitled ‘Conflicts and Coa-

Syria conflict was not an option, saying Euro-

to fight and whom to protect, and an effort to

litions in the Middle East’, distilled the 2015

peans ‘are not simply spectators’. Referring

foster development. The difficulties in such an

Dialogue’s prevailing mood, urging collec-

to the wave of refugees entering Europe, she

approach are well known; one, as a number

tive action at the same time as acknowledging

stated emphatically that Germany, as a matter

of participants pointed out, is the challenge of

the difficulties of choosing both partners and

of its constitutional identity, would not ‘slam

addressing the regional deficit of inclusive gov-

targets. The session’s keynote speakers were

the door’. Yet, as South Korean Ambassador

ernance. But the Manama Dialogue was pre-

drawn from a country playing host to some of

for National Security Affairs Lee Chung Min

sented by Al Obeidi with a specific call to action:

the region’s most virulent conflicts, and another

noted, the political task of maintaining a con-

a defence dialogue between the Gulf’s armies

dragged headlong into a common cause with it

sensus for fighting ISIS while accepting the

and national institutions, with the aim of build-

by the side effects of Middle East turmoil. The

costs of accepting refugees is not an easy one.

ing a common strategy. This would range from

latter, Dr Ursula von der Leyen, Federal Minis-

Von der Leyen stressed the need for a col-

information exchange and joint exercises to the

ter of Defence of Germany, put the predicament

lective approach from the European Union,

theatre of operations itself; its outputs could

bluntly: ‘we have too many violent conflicts,

an institution created to solve problems that

include strategies for the administration of bor-

and we have far too few coalitions to stop or

member states could not solve individually.

ders and shared waters, a common approach

control them … The regional order seems to be

‘Solidarity’, said Von der Leyen, ‘means that,

to displaced persons and refugees, and post-

collapsing.’ Yet, as she and others pointed out,

in tough times, we share burdens’. She identi-

conflict reconstruction. ‘An anti-terrorism agree-

there is much to unite both regional states as a

fied a quid pro quo: European states receive

ment among the Gulf’s coastal states’, Al Obeidi

group and extra-regional parties with those in

people fleeing for their lives, and invest in

concluded, ‘would be a fundamental pillar of

the Middle East.

their education and integration; those people

defensive arrangements for the entire Middle

Europe, said Von der Leyen, shares three

contribute to their country of refuge, and one

East’.

core interests with the states of the Middle East:

day, after the return of peace, again contribute

fighting terrorism; reinstating order, economic

to their country of origin.

Fourth Plenary Session: Conflicts and

Fifth Plenary Session: Managing Conflict Spillover

development and stability; and providing the

The complexities of the military response

people of the region with a viable future. Yet

to ISIS preoccupied the keynote speakers and

Nohad Machnouk, Minister of the Interior and

shared interests have not easily led to common

many participants from the floor. Al Obeidi’s

Municipalities of Lebanon — a state that has

action, however, and there are dangers in con-

prescription was clear: military action against

suffered greatly as a result of the Syrian conflict

flating similar but separate problems.

ISIS would have to come first, only then to be

— spoke first in the fifth plenary session, titled

Khaled Al Obeidi, Minister of Defence of

followed by non-military efforts. But ques-

‘Managing Conflict Spillover’. He surveyed

Iraq, warned against defining the problems to

tioners were unwilling to conceive of military

the local, regional and international conflicts

be solved in Iraq and Syria in the same way,

action as inherently apolitical. The IISS’s Ben

that beset Lebanon: the Arab–Israeli struggle;

pointing to the Iraqi constitution, parliamentary

Barry, Senior Fellow for Land Warfare, and

Iranian regional meddling; and the threat of

system and elected national government as dif-

Bloomberg’s Josh Rogin both pressed the min-

‘extremist takfiri’ groups such as ISIS. Previ-

ferentiating political characteristics.

ister on the question of Iranian influence: does

ously, he said, extremist groups operated in

6

|

DECEMBER 2015

IISS NEWS

CANADA

UNITED KINGDOM

MANAMA DIALOGUE

Nohad Machnouk, Minister of the Interior and Municipalities, Lebanon; John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS; Crispin Blunt, Chairman, Foreign Affairs Committee, House of Commons, UK

secret. Today, they produce oil, mint coins and

eration is also integral to more effective man-

and Egypt – to come of age. These states must

control territory.

agement of the region’s political, security and

become a P4, to give regional problems the con-

Machnouk expressed the hope that, as other

economic problems, according to Machnouk. He

sistent attention that the five permanent mem-

powers had abandoned Syria, Russia would be

noted that it was the tribes of Iraq that defeated

bers of the UN Security Council cannot.

able to help craft a political settlement, but he

al-Qaeda, and that ISIS only took control of parts

The rest of Blunt’s remarks focused on the

acknowledged that the chances were slim. Leba-

of the country after sectarian actors had margin-

principal form of conflict spillover: displace-

non’s government, he said, had succeeded in

alised them and divided society.

ment. All refugees should have been accom-

limiting the impact of the Syrian conflict on Leb-

The second theme was regional and interna-

modated in neighbouring countries, assisted

anese territory by achieving national solidarity

tional cooperation. Arab states must not retreat

properly by the whole international commu-

and greater coordination among security agen-

into unilateralism, but should rather create a

nity, he said. The developed world failed to give

cies, and by promoting moderation in political

solid strategic alliance. Operation Decisive Storm

Turkey, Jordan and Lebanon the support they

and religious discourse. The government has

in Yemen is a good example of cooperation, and

were entitled to, and now it has suffered the

extended its authority across national territory,

without it there would have been no progress

consequences of inaction in the form of Europe’s

ending the effects of war in northern Lebanon,

in the conflict. Likewise, extra-regional states

refugee crisis.

Machnouk said. However, efforts to extend this

should focus on solving the Syrian conflict, he

On that point too, Blunt felt serious errors

into territory controlled by Hizbullah have been

added, arguing that this was a better use of their

had been made. The EU failed to show solidar-

frustrated.

resources than squabbling over how many refu-

ity with its front-line, southern member states,

gees each European state might receive.

who struggled without support. Thereafter,

In Lebanon today, there is one refugee for every three citizens, the minister noted, and the

Crispin Blunt, Chairman of the UK House of

Germany’s ‘entirely decent human response’,

country has welcomed and incorporated them

Commons’ Foreign Affairs Committee, began

opening its borders to refugees, encouraged

despite the huge challenges. He noted, however,

by noting that the session title did not do jus-

millions more — not only from Syria, but many

that Hizbullah’s involvement in the Syrian war

tice to the ‘death, destitution and displacement

afflicted countries — to try their luck in Europe.

had provoked a reaction in Lebanon in support

borne by the millions’ in the region. He noted

The correct policy now, he said, was to take the

of the Syrian revolution, and with it the growth

the role of Britain and other external powers

pressure off refugee camps in the region, by

of extremist cells in Lebanon.

in laying the foundation for many contempo-

moving the most deserving people to Europe,

minister’s

rary conflicts in the region, and their imperfect

but doing so in a way that did not encourage

address; the first was moderation. He noted

response to the Arab spring, ‘which has turned

broader population movement. At the outset of

that Lebanon sorely needed a head of state after

to winter without a hint of summer or autumn

the Syrian conflict, the focus should have been

almost two years without one, and called on all

in between’.

on giving people hope that they could return

Two

themes

permeated

the

those present to desist from pressing for a change

Blunt noted that America’s will to inter-

home in a reasonable space of time. If frag-

in the constitutional arrangement that reserves

vene in the region is limited, and that there is

ile and conflict-torn states lose their best and

the presidency for a Christian — in times of

no superpower ready and willing to take up its

brightest people, they will have more difficulty

extremism in the Arab world, this dispensation

burden. Thus the time has come, he argued, for

in building institutions and economies that are

is more necessary than ever, he argued. Mod-

regional powers – Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia

resistant to conflict.

IISS NEWS

DECEMBER 2015 | 7

MANAMA DIALOGUE

TERRORISM AND SECURITY

GEOPOLITICS

Special Session 1: THE FUTURE OF YEMEN The first special session considered ‘The

vision of military support to the insurgents,

Resolution 2216, which the Houthis and other

Future of Yemen’ and the challenges of ending

which has included arms shipments.

opposition leaders indicated they would

the civil war in the country. In keeping with

While the fighting in the Yemen involves

accept. This paved the way for agreeing a

other conflicts in the region, re-establishing

the major regional powers, directly or indi-

further round of peace talks, the agenda, date

stability in Yemen has security and economic

rectly, it should not be viewed primarily as a

and format of which were under discussion

implications beyond its border. This is in part

proxy war, nor indeed as a classic sectarian

as the Manama Dialogue was taking place.

the reason why the Saudi-led coalition inter-

conflict, suggested some long-term observers.

To have any chance of success, some contend,

vened to support the faltering government of

Rather, they argued, it ought to be viewed as a

the primary focus of all involved must shift

Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi, which teetered on

tribal power play.

from the military to the political arena. Full

the brink of collapse in the face of an offensive

The Arab intervention force led by Saudi

inclusivity is also a pre-requisite for the talks’

by Houthi rebels and forces loyal to the former

Arabia is pursuing a multi-faceted approach,

success, while the Houthis need to negotiate

president, Ali Abdullah Saleh. The coalition

it was argued. In parallel to the military cam-

in good faith. Within the Hadi government

states have also been concerned by Iran’s pro-

paign, which has the ultimate aim of liberating

there remains mistrust of the Houthis and

territory under the control of the

Saleh. Given this, there is also a keen inter-

Houthis, there is also the intent to

est in rebuilding the military and the security

relaunch a political process. The

institutions. UNSCR 2216 includes a provi-

hoped-for end of the conflict will also

sion for deploying observers or peace-keeping

require a considerable reconstruction

forces if this is deemed necessary.

effort, with the north and the south of

One option, floated by some as potentially

the country a particular focus. These

addressing the concerns of all involved par-

areas have been central to the insur-

ties, is the creation of a federal Yemen, based

gency.

on six regions. This could provide a level of

A key element of any soluSana’a, Yemen’s capital (Ferdinand Reus)

tion will be UN Security Council

autonomy to those areas now at the heart of the insurgency.

Special Session 2: GCC DEFENCE POSTURE AND EXTERNAL POWERS

8

The second special session, titled ‘GCC Defence

states to take action themselves. These new

Posture and External Powers‘, was convened

activities involved increased military coopera-

at a time when GCC member states were on

tion. Within the GCC, there was a convergence

active military operations in Yemen and over

of interests that afforded an opportunity to

Syria. The session provided an opportunity to

strengthen the ties, including defence relation-

reflect on the current state and future trajec-

ships, between nations.

tory of regional military cooperation, as well

Yemen, one participant said, was a cru-

as the requirements of GCC defence forces and

cible for future cooperation. These operations

The UAE offloads a BMP3 tank from its Elbahia L62 landing craft at a Kuwaiti port (US Navy/Joseph Krypel)

the role of external powers.

would allow the region’s forces to consider

coalitions, and through NATO, both the UK and

The region faces significant security chal-

areas requiring improvement. The new GCC

US could bring this knowledge to bear in help-

lenges from rising extremism, the presence

Joint Military Command, agreed in late 2014,

ing GCC states develop their joint-operational

of armed militias and Iran. Growing insta-

would build on the coordination and coopera-

capability. Meanwhile, assistance, in the form of

bility across the region has multiple causes,

tion seen in the Peninsula Shield Force.

training and other support – or procurements –

including the aftermath of the invasion of

Growing defence cooperation, through

was designed to build capability and empower

Iraq, security crises following the Arab Spring,

organisational changes and military opera-

local forces, and could help boost the inter-

rising sectarian strife, and inattention and

tions, was leading GCC states to reconsider

operability of armed forces. Indeed, growing

incapacity on the part of the international com-

defence and military strategies. There was

inter-operability was already evident: on the

munity. The imperatives for cooperation were

increasing security and intelligence coopera-

first night of coalition air operations against ISIS

greater than they were before, it was argued.

tion, and states were looking to improve the

over Syria, five Middle Eastern air forces took

The history of GCC military cooperation

efficiency of their defence forces by enhancing

part, and four were able to use munitions. The

was outlined, as was that of external powers’

training at all levels, unifying command-and-

significant political and military commitments

military involvement in the region. Indeed,

control, and developing organisational and

in the region by outside powers showed that

it was argued that the confluence of rising

equipment inter-operability.

security in the region was important to them;

security threats, and a relative decline in inter-

External powers could help in this process.

national military attention had led regional

With long-standing experience of working in

|

DECEMBER 2015

indeed, for some, Gulf security was indistinguishable from their own security.

IISS NEWS

DEFENCE POLICY

DEFENCE ECONOMICS

GULF STATES

MANAMA DIALOGUE

Special Session 3: STABILISING WEAK STATES The third session, ‘Stabilising Weak States’,

A large part of the dis-

addressed a topic – state fragility, failure and

cussion focused on relief

weakness – that permeated nearly all discus-

efforts.

sions at the Dialogue. While state weakness

nates the Arab response

and fragility is a global phenomenon, with no

to

region unaffected, it is a particular problem

ian disaster and the EU

in the Middle East. The cases of Yemen, Iraq,

is engaged with relief,

Syria and Libya stand out.

development efforts and

Panellists agreed that there was a close rela-

Bahrain

Syria’s

coordi-

humanitar-

conflict-resolution tives

the incidence of conflict, which can become a

little traction. Numerous

vicious spiral as deprivation and insecurity

proposals

fuel further violence. In Syria, 5.6m young

ing policy responses were

people lack access to education. The Gadhafi

made, including sustained

regime in Libya was toppled without any

development efforts conducted alongside

was the need to recognise and accommodate

plan for replacing it. International support

relief initiatives, to break the cycle of state

centrifugal forces through decentralisation,

was insufficient, and thereafter regional states

weakness, insecurity and conflict; better

federation or de facto partition. In Syria, the

pursued narrow agendas and interfered with

coordination between host governments and

areas controlled by the Kurds, ISIS and the

the state-building process, preventing the

international agencies delivering aid and

regime are to varying extents considered to

authorities from developing the mechanisms

development; and a detailed, bottom-up

be economically and political viable, and

to stabilise a tribal society. Militias filled the

understanding of the drivers of weakness and

militarily defendable, although the positive

void, and the lack of economic opportunity

fragility.

prospects for each would lessen if allied sup-

has facilitated recruitment by armed groups.

Development is the solution.

that

have

initia-

tionship between the failings of the state and

for

gained improvAzaz, northwest of Aleppo, Syria (ICRC)

The session also considered political settlements in Libya and Syria. A common element

port waned or the military threats to them increased.

Special Session 4: THE ROLE OF POLITICAL ISLAMISM The fourth session, ‘The Role of Political

teachings included the Muslim Brotherhood,

overarching Muslim Brotherhood movement,

Islamism’, focused on two sources of tension:

Hamas and an-Nahda. These organisations

rather than regarding itself as part of the fabric

between the concepts of Islam as a faith versus

had adapted their ideologies to the secular

of the Egyptian nation. If political Islamist par-

Islam as political ideology, and between the

political process and contested elections.

ties were to have any success in government in

modern nation state and the absolutist nature

The concept of political Islamism had not

the future, they needed to be more pragmatic

of political Islamism. Participants were divided

been applied successfully to the governance of

in embracing pluralism; non-Islamist actors,

in their definitions of ‘political Islamism’, and

a nation state. It was suggested that this was

meanwhile, needed to develop inclusive sys-

only agreed that there were myriad interpre-

because it allowed little room for pluralism and

tems of government.

tations of it. But examples of parties whose

had failed to win the hearts of the population

The rise of ISIS and its establishment of a

political programme, were founded on Islamic

beyond its traditional support base. One pan-

‘caliphate’ added a further layer of complexity

ellist suggested that, rather

to debates about the relationship between the

than being preoccupied by

state and political Islamism. However, it was

questions of ideology, most

pointed out that jihadists regarded the political

individuals were instead

process as incompatible with their endeav-

focused on more parochial

ours. Any adherent of their extremist ideology

issues, such as money, their

who attempted to form a political party could

health and social services.

not consider themselves a true jihadist.

Fading election posters in Egypt (Adrián Carreras)

IISS NEWS

It was not for the state to

The need to improve social conditions for

restrict each citizen’s right

the region’s young people was a common

to pursue their faith.

theme of the Dialogue, and the subject was

It was argued that one

raised once again in this session. Panellists

of the failings of Egypt’s

agreed that economic and social change would

Muslim Brotherhood was

have a positive effect – the imperative was to

that it had considered the

encourage critical thinking and to counter the

country to be part of an

appeal of absolutist ideology.

DECEMBER 2015 | 9

IISS–MIDDLE EAST

EGYPT

TERRORISM AND SECURITY

INSURGENCY

EXPERTS

Roundtable with Egypt’s President Sisi President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi of Egypt gave informal opening remarks at a roundtable discussion chaired by Dr John Chipman, Director-General and CEO of the IISS, on 5 November. The meeting, which involved top British leaders and opinion formers, was held at the Mandarin Oriental Hotel, in London.

Accompanying President Sisi were Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry, Minister of International Cooperation Dr Sahar Nasr, Minister of Investment Ashraf Salman, Petroleum and Mineral Resources Minister Tarek elMolla, and Egyptian Ambassador to the UK Nasser Kamel.

Read the transcript by President Sisi.

A View from Paris

President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi of Egypt and Dr John Chipman, IISS

Syrian Jihad: the Evolution of an Insurgency

Kurdish YPG fighter (Kurdishstruggle/Flickr) Flowers and messages at Place de la République after the Paris attacks (Shutterstock)

While Western policy in Syria has focused on countering one group of On 30 November, the IISS-Middle East hosted a panel lecture on French

extremists – ISIS – another may have more successfully entrenched itself in

policy in the Middle East entitled ‘A View from Paris’ as part of its Global

Syrian society and its grip might be harder to release. Local al-Qaeda affili-

Perspectives Series. The speakers included Dr Bruno Tertrais, Senior

ate Jabhat al-Nusra had taken a paternalistic approach towards the Syrians

Research Fellow at the Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique, and Dr

in the areas it controlled, Charles Lister, Visiting Fellow at the Brookings

Nelly Lahoud, IISS Senior Fellow for Political Islamism, and the lecture

Doha Center, said at an IISS discussion meeting on 19 November. After

was chaired by Sir John Jenkins, Executive Director of IISS–Middle East.

more than four years of civil war, it was viewed by many Syrians as having

The audience included ambassadors, government officials and representa-

taking the fight to the Assad regime.

tives from leading businesses.

While ISIS meted out harsh punishments to the civilians under its

Dr Tertrais provided a skeptical take on the Iran nuclear deal, noting in

control, Jabhat al-Nusra was more pragmatic in enforcing behavioural

particular its short time frame, but asserted that with its adoption, the best

strictures, said Lister. It was ‘very difficult, if not impossible’ to get locals

approach would be to demand its full implementation. He also explained

to ‘say anything bad about Jabhat al-Nusra’.

that France’s tough negotiating position was welcomed by the Gulf states.

While Lister believed ISIS faced challenges both internally and on the

Tertrais detailed France’s conundrum in Syria, where it sought to support

battlefield, he warned against depending too heavily on Kurdish fighters.

Assad’s ouster but faced serious constraints, notably the presence of jihad-

The Kurdish People’s Protection Units, or YPG, had been at the forefront

ist fighters, a concern greatly aggravated by the recent attacks in Paris. The

of the campaign against ISIS in Iraq and northeastern Syria. However, a

attacks, Tertrais asserted, did not yet alter the substance of French policy

large Kurdish role would not be welcome in Sunni Arab-dominated areas

but forced counter-terrorism to the top of the French regional agenda and

to the south.

would have a lasting impact in the country.

Both he and Emile Hokayem, IISS Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern

Dr Lahoud discussed the ISIS view of the world and explained that the

Security, reminded the audience that in five or six weeks at the start of

choice of Paris as a target and the sophistication of the attacks revealed its

2014, the largely Sunni opposition forced ISIS out of four-and-a-half Syrian

evolving capabilities and desire to manipulate social and other perceived

provinces. Even with close air support from the US-led coalition, Kurdish

fault lines in Western societies. She noted that the ISIS narrative suffered

fighters had pushed ISIS out of about one-third of a province in a year,

from the refugee crisis: while ISIS was busy building its ‘caliphate’, many

Lister estimated.

Arab Muslims chose to seek refuge in Europe. She noted that any strategy

The discussion, which also took in Russian and French escalation, the

to weaken ISIS needed a strong political component and a recognition of

Vienna peace process, ISIS financing and the role of Ahrar al-Sham, was

the suffering of the populations in Syria and Iraq.

chaired by Matthew Harries, the managing editor of IISS journal Survival:

Read more about the Global Perspectives Series.

10

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DECEMBER 2015

Global Politics and Strategy. Watch the event.

IISS NEWS

ALASTAIR BUCHAN LECTURES

KEY ADDRESSES

OPPENHEIMER LECTURES

IISS–Oppenheimer Lecture: Justice, Good Governance and International Security Advocate Thuli Madonsela, Public Protector of South Africa, delivered the IISS Oppenheimer Lecture on 14 October. One of the drafters that country’s post-apartheid constitution, Madonsela began by reflecting on the origins of institutions for administrative accountability, as well as the longterm development and security goals of the African Union and the United Nations.

Speaking of a global challenge in which International Humanitarian

Advocate Thuli Madonsela, Public Protector of South Africa

Law ‘seems unable to step in and help as ordinary civilians, particularly women and children, become collateral damage’, she described

ICC do its work, while an AU equivalent that transcends adversarial

a strong link between justice and peace. Her central arguments were

justice is formulated’.

that ‘perceived injustice within and between national states is a threat

She also touched on the security challenges posed by climate change

to international peace and security’; that mechanisms for restorative

and damage to the environment, describing the former as one of the great-

justice should play a significant role in the reform of international law;

est existential threats to humanity. Drawing together the threads of her

and that the rule of law should be evenly applied to regional and global

argument, Madonsela concluded with a quote from Nelson Mandela: ‘let

governance. Madonsela contended that the International Criminal

there be justice for all. Let there be peace for all. Let there be work, bread,

Court (ICC) was ‘facing a legitimacy crisis’ due to the fact that some of

water and salt for all.’

its members were ‘allowed to have a say in ICC operations while they themselves are not accountable to it’, and she advised that states ‘let the

The event was chaired by Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive of the IISS. Watch the full event here.

Europe at a Crossroads Europe was in a ‘transformational crisis’, Estonian President Toomas Hendrik Ilves warned during the 2015 Alastair Buchan Lecture he delivered at IISS headquarters on 1 December. All of the continent’s achievements were being tested, he believed, by continuing economic woes, the conflict on the continent’s eastern border in Ukraine, the huge numbers of refugees fleeing to Europe from the Middle East, the rise of far-right parties, the terrorist attacks in Paris on 13 November and the upcoming UK referendum on leaving the EU. Europe needed to respond collectively through its democratic institu-

Toomas Hendrik Ilves, President of Estonia

tions. ‘Let’s try to gather our wits, combine our strengths, to leave behind … constant indecision, finger-pointing and ducking of responsibility’, he

from Ukraine in 2014 were the same as those used in a failed coup d’etat

said, reminding the audience of the far greater challenges facing the conti-

in Estonia in 1924. Nevertheless, he believed there needed to be more

nent after 1945, which an earlier generation of Europeans overcame.

structured dialogue between the EU and NATO. At its upcoming summit

Ilves said that the refugee crisis should not be allowed to undermine the momentous eastward expansion of the EU in 2004, nor give oxygen to the intolerant rhetoric of populist politicians; the Paris attacks should not be allowed to close down Europe’s open societies.

However, those attacks had brought the principle of collective defence back into focus. Europe should react by ‘doing more to take seriously our

in Warsaw, he said NATO needed to get back to first principles, putting deterrence before discourse.

Ilves warned that Europe was facing challenges from all quarters – from ISIS, which was trying to intimidate the West into abandoning its fundamental social principles, to Russia, which was calling for an anti-ISIS coalition while having ‘violated every major European security treaty’.

security and defence’, said Ilves. He wanted to see increased defence and

‘If we do not rise up to these challenges, future generations will look

intelligence cooperation within Europe, at the same time as more effective

back at us and say that we have failed, that we squandered our European

control of the EU’s external borders.

inheritance and they will ask why we did so little when so much was at

The president expressed confidence that NATO would come to Estonia’s assistance under Article 5 of the NATO treaty should his country be attacked, even via ‘hybrid’ means. Hybrid war was nothing new, he insisted, noting that many of the tactics used by Russia to annex Crimea

IISS NEWS

stake’, he said.

The lecture was introduced and chaired by IISS Director-General and Chief Executive Dr John Chipman.

Watch the event.

DECEMBER 2015 | 11

SOUTH ASIA

PAKISTAN

INDIA

EXPERTS

GEOPOLITICS

A Conversation with General Raheel Sharif

Key Trends in South and Central Asian Security

Gateway close to the China–Pakistan border

On 15 October, the IISS hosted a discussion of security trends in South Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, IISS; General Raheel Sharif (Pakistan Army Chief); and Nigel Inkster, IISS

and Central Asia, featuring two experts from the US National Defense University’s Near East South Asia (NESA) Center for Strategic Studies and two from the IISS. NESA Academic Dean and Professor of Central Asian

For the second time this year, the IISS hosted Pakistan Army Chief General

Studies Dr Roger Kangas argued that Central Asian republics sought

Raheel Sharif for a private, off-the-record conversation on the sidelines of

closer regional cooperation in light of the evolving cross-border threats

his official meetings in London. On 1 October, General Sharif argued that

emanating from Afghanistan. His colleague, Associate Professor Jack Gill,

Pakistan had come a long way since he launched a comprehensive military

suggested it was hard to overstate the importance of maintaining ties

operation against militants inside the country last year. Through opera-

between Pakistan and Afghanistan, and nurturing the burgeoning rap-

tion Zarb-e-Azb, he explained, the army would continue pursuing militant

prochement between the two countries.

‘sleeper cells’ across Pakistan. He also urged the international community

IISS Senior Fellow for South Asia Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, who also

to play a role in promoting peace in South Asia and combating the funding

chaired the event, noted that the cancellation of the first structured talks

of terrorist organisations. Discussing plans for a new US$46 billion China–

between Indian and Pakistani National Security Advisers had impeded

Pakistan Economic Corridor, which would put Pakistan at the heart of

prospects for the resumption of an official dialogue. This was particularly

China’s ‘One Belt, One Road’ policy, General Sharif declared that ‘we will

regrettable during a period of intensified cross-border military activity

do everything to make it a success.’

and sharpened government rhetoric on both sides. IISS Research Associate

Read the Associated Press of Pakistan report on the event.

for South Asia Antoine Levesques argued that while China’s more visible role in stabilising Afghanistan had been welcomed by the international community, Beijing’s perceived assertiveness on the Indian border and in

IISS–CISS Workshop on ‘Defence, Deterrence and Stability in South Asia’ 2015 The fourth ‘track 1.5’ IISS nuclear workshop with Pakistan, held in partnership with the Centre for International Strategic Studies (CISS), took

the Indian Ocean, as well as its support for the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor, were more divisive. The discussion emphasised that addressing the threat posed by the rise of militant forces loyal to ISIS may provide a sound basis for fostering regional cooperation.

Diplomatic Dimension of India’s Maritime Challenges

place in Islamabad on 29 October. The keynote address was delivered by Pakistani Foreign Secretary Aizaz Ahmad Chaudhry, while discussion

Ambassador Yogendra Kumar, former ambassador of India to the

sessions covered topics including Pakistan–India relations, deterrence

Philippines and Tajikistan, and High Commissioner to Namibia, dis-

and doctrines, and nuclear ‘normalisation’. The IISS was the first foreign

cussed India’s role as a growing maritime power during a talk at the

think tank to call on Lieutenant-General Mazhar Jamil, the relatively new

IISS on 5 November. Specifically, he analysed the challenges the country

Director-General of the National Command Authority’s Strategic Plans

currently faces in this domain, and suggested policy initiatives and capac-

Division (SPD), for discussions on these issues.

ity-building steps for India’s maritime agencies. He believed that these

IISS representatives also visited Pakistan’s new Centre of Excellence

would help India play a lead role in the region, and will facilitate the

for Nuclear Security (PCENS) outside Islamabad, and held discussions at

‘co-option’ of extra-regional powers – including China – into its maritime

the Ministry of Foreign Affairs led by Additional Foreign Secretary (Asia-

order. He suggested that the successful management of this challenge

Pacific) Mr Afrasiab. The group also met with Senator Lieutenant-General

could potentially have a salutary effect on the global maritime order as a

(Ret.) Salahuddin Tirmizi of the ruling Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz)

whole. The event was chaired by IISS Senior Fellow for South Asia Rahul

and Senator Farhatullah Babar of the opposition Pakistan Peoples’ Party,

Roy-Chaudhury.

both members of the Senate Defence Committee.

12

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DECEMBER 2015

Listen to the event.

IISS NEWS

EXPERTS

MYANMAR

IISS-NESA SECURITY CONFERENCE

SOUTH ASIA

IISS-NESA South Asia Security Conference 2015 The ninth annual ‘track 1.5’ IISS–NESA South Asia Security Conference, held in partnership with the Near East & South Asia Centre of the US National Defence University, took place in Muscat, Oman from 9–11 October 2015. It brought together nearly 60 participants from Afghanistan, India and Pakistan as well as attendees from the US, the UK, France, Bangladesh and – for the first time – China. The group included ministers, ambassadors and generals, along with influential experts. Moreover, the event provided a rare opportunity for a meeting between top intelligence officials from India’s Research & Analysis Wing (RAW), Pakistan’s Inter-

Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, IISS; John Jenkins, IISS; Hekmat Karzai, Deputy Foreign Minister for Political Affairs, Afghanistan; Major General Ahmad Mahmood Hayat, Director General (Analysis and Strategic Intelligence), Inter-Services Intelligence, Pakistan

Services Intelligence (ISI), Afghanistan’s National Directorate of Security

nature of the event allowed for candid discussion of Pakistan–Afghanistan

(NDS) and Bangladesh’s Directorate General of Forces Intelligence (DGFI).

relations, India–Pakistan relations, Pakistan’s domestic counter-terrorism

One-quarter of the conference participants were senior government

efforts, Indian Ocean maritime security, regional economic cooperation

officials and half were attending for the first time. The off-the-record

and efforts to counter ISIS.

Myanmar After the Polls: A Foreseeable Result with Less Foreseeable Consequences On 8 November, mainland Southeast Asia’s largest country held its first relatively free and inclusive general elections in a generation. It pitted an incumbent government formed of retired generals against the opposition National League for Democracy (NLD), which is opposed to the military’s political dominance.

A woman votes in a by-election in Myanmar (Htoo Tay Zar)

The webinar delivered on 6 November provided a concise overview of the possible scenarios and state of play in the critical period following

The discussion also focused on the policy priorities for the likely next

the elections in Myanmar. The IISS correctly forecast that the NLD would

NLD government on issues relating to the emerging economy, neighbour-

secure the largest bloc of seats in the national and regional legislatures, and

ing powers, constitutional reform and a troubled national peace process

mapped out the likely consequences of this unprecedented power shift for

with major ethnic armed groups. With the ambitious next phase of the

the country. In particular, the discussion focused on the months of horse-

peace process due to start in January 2016, the incumbent government will

trading over the presidency – a process in which the military remains a key

need to adopt a framework for dialogue before handing over to the NLD,

political arbitrator – that will be required before a viable administration

in the midst of the wider power transition.

assumes office, on 29 March 2016.

IISS–USI Workshop on ‘Defence, Deterrence and Stability in South Asia’ 2015

Watch the webinar.

Chief Marshal (Ret.) Fali Major and former Eastern Naval Commander-inChief Vice Admiral (Ret.) A.K. Singh. The new Director-General of India’s foremost defence think tank, the Institute for Defence Studies & Analyses (IDSA), Ambassador Jayant Prasad, was also a member of the Indian delegation. The presence of former high-level military officers from the UK and retired British High Commissioners to India Sir Michael Arthur – now President of Boeing UK – and Sir Richard Stagg – now Chairman

The fourth IISS–USI workshop on ‘Defence, Deterrence and Stability in

of Rothschild (India) Private Ltd – as well as Rear Admiral (Retd) John

South Asia’, co-hosted by India’s United Service Institution, took place at

Gower, former Assistant Chief of the Defence Staff (Nuclear) at the UK

Arundel House on 4 November 2015. The Indian delegation was led by

Ministry of Defence – provided a unique opportunity for policy-relevant

Lieutenant-General (Ret.) P.K. Singh, director of USI, the country’s leading

discussions on key defence and deterrence issues. These included ‘force

military think tank. It was comprised of top-level retired officers from all

perspectives on threats and challenges’, ‘defence and deterrence in south-

three of India’s armed services, including former Chief of the Air Force Air

ern Asia’ and ‘nuclear diplomacy’.

IISS NEWS

DECEMBER 2015 | 13

SECURITY AND DEVELOPMENT

GOVERNANCE

DRUGS TRADE

The Challenge of Corruption in Fragile States: Implications for Security and Defence Assistance

ISLAMIC STATE

ORGANISED CRIME

EXPERTS

The Shadow Economy: How Illicit Trade Impacts Development and Governance On 10 November, Eric D. U. Gutierrez, Senior Adviser at Christian Aid, Dr David Mansfield, Independent Consultant, Dr Jacobo Grajales, Associate Professor at the University of Lille, and Andy Morgan, freelance author and journalist, discussed the ways and extent to which development and security are undermined by illicit economies in developing regions.

Speaking at Arundel House, the experts focused on Afghanistan, Mali and Colombia. The three countries have seen a proliferation of illicit-trade activities, with narcotics generating the bulk of revenues for non-state armed groups (and at times state actors) and undermining governance, democracy and efforts to eradicate poverty. Offering a nuanced analysis based on extensive field research, the panellists acknowledged that in some instances illicit trafficking had created jobs, funded social mobility

Anti-corruption poster in Zambia (Lars Plougmann/Flickr)

and boosted licit economies. The event was chaired by Virginia Comolli, IISS Research Fellow for Security and Development.

On 21 October Virginia Comolli, IISS Research Fellow for Security and

Watch the full discussion.

Development, hosted an off-the-record discussion at Arundel House with Will Jessett CBE, Director for Strategic Planning at the UK Ministry of Defence, Sir Ian Andrews, former Second Permanent Secretary of the UK Ministry of Defence and former Chairman of the Serious Organised Crime Agency, and Leah Wawro, Manager of the Conflict and Instability Programme at Transparency International.

Combating Violence and Organised Crime in Mega-cities

The discussion exposed some of the challenges faced by Western governments attempting to deliver assistance to fragile regions where the effectiveness and reliability of defence and security agencies are undermined by entrenched corruption. The panellists examined cases in which corrupted security forces no longer protect civilians from violence.

Elsewhere, a large injection of security and development assistance failed to improve the situation on the ground, instead damaging the integrity of local institutions that were used by officials to embezzle funds.

Read more about the event.

Is ISIS Making Inroads in SubSaharan Africa?

Brazilian troops in a Rio de Janeiro favela (Agência Brasil)

The IISS Security and Development Programme recently initiated a new strand of research focusing on the security of cities in the developing world and policies designed to counter urban armed violence. The research

On 26 November, IISS Research Fellow for Security and Development,

examines how armed groups challenge state authority in sprawling slums

Virginia Comolli delivered a webinar assessing the level of penetration

and the peripheries of mega-cities, and the related policy dilemmas faced

enjoyed by the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) in Sub Saharan Africa

by local authorities.

– a region in which the group appears determined to expand its influence.

Antônio Sampaio, Research Associate for Security and Development,

During the course of the discussion, Comolli touched upon the region’s

examined some of these dilemmas during a webinar on 22 October.

key jihadist hotspots: northern Nigeria and the Lake Chad basin region, the

Sampaio analysed trends in the use of security and development tools

Horn of Africa, and Mali and its Sahelian neighbours. All three areas are

with the aim of stabilising cities. With Latin America currently being the

under al-Qaeda influence (either formally or informally), creating tensions

most urbanised developing region in the world, he discussed successful

within local groups between those elements who wish to pledge allegiance

examples of stabilisation using the cases of Medellin and Rio de Janeiro.

to ISIS, and those who are determined to remain under al-Qaeda’s umbrella

Based on these case studies, Sampaio argued that stabilisation operations

or focus on local priorities rather than the international ambitions of ISIS.

form part of a new understanding of the role of force in cities.

Watch the webinar.

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DECEMBER 2015

Listen to the webinar.

IISS NEWS

ASIA-PACIFIC

IISS–ASIA

Responding to China’s Challenges in East and Southeast Asia At a breakfast briefing on 19 November, IISS–Asia Executive Director Dr Tim Huxley spoke at Arundel House on the United States’ long-term strategy towards China’s activities in the South China Sea. He noted that China’s large-scale naval modernisation and attempts to claim contested territory in the area reflected its goal of creating a new, Sino-centric regional order in the Asia-Pacific. As such, some experts regard the creation

Chinese Jiangkai II-class frigate Yiyang at Mayport, Florida (US Navy/Stephanie Turo)

of an acknowledged Chinese sphere of influence in the region as inevitable. Dr Huxley, however, suggested that regional stability will ultimately

potential structure of such a strategy, including the significant role that

depend on the capacity of the US and its allies to execute an effective ‘cost-

US Navy Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) would play in its

imposing’ strategy to curtail China’s coercive behaviour. He explored the

implementation.

IISS-Asia Roundtable Seminars

Western Australia spoke on Russia’s involvement in the Syrian conflict.

During November, IISS-Asia organised three Roundtable Seminars involv-

ite air group in Syria, supported by naval missile strikes and long-range

ing speakers who were visiting Singapore.

bombers, have contributed to the success of the Syrian army’s counter-

Dr Muraviev examined how intensive operations by Russia’s compos-

offensive against insurgent groups, including those backed by the West.

Tensions in China–Japan Relations and East Asian Security

Dr Muraviev also assessed the rationale and strategic objectives behind

On 5 November, Dr Rex Li from Liverpool John Moores University, UK,

Russia’s Syrian commitment.

delivered a paper on the impact of Sino-Japanese relations on East Asian security. Dr Li highlighted the fact that the underlying problems in this

Geostrategic Shift in East Asia: Towards a Pax Sinica and an Emergence

relationship remained unresolved, despite high-level dialogue in recent

of a New Regional Order

months, arguing that the roots of these bilateral tensions lie in the two

Professor Tosh Minohara of Kobe University discussed the evolution of

countries’ changing conceptions of their own and each other’s identities.

strategic relations between the United States, Japan and the rest of Asia

He argued that the prospects for East Asian peace depend to a considerable

at IISS–Asia on 12 November. He also examined the significance of this

extent on whether and to what extent China and Japan can reduce their

‘transformation’ of regional relations for Asia’s future.

‘identity tensions’.

Each seminar was well-attended by members of Singapore’s diplomatic, business and academic communities, and lively discussions followed all

Russia’s Offensive in Syria: Motives, Strategy, Operational Aspects

three speakers’ presentations. Dr Tim Huxley, Executive Director of IISS-

On 11 November, Dr Alexey D. Muraviev from Curtin University, Perth,

Asia, chaired the meetings.

EXPERTS

SECURITY AND DEVELOPMENT

Brazilian Defence in International Perspective The IISS hosted Ambassador Celso Amorim, former Minister of External Relations and former Minister of Defence of Brazil, at Bloomsbury House on 11 November. Having spent almost 13 years in cabinet positions, Ambassador Amorim spoke on Brazil’s views on foreign policy and the international-security system. He revealed how during the presidency of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil developed a ‘grand strategy’ of combining soft and hard power in order to achieve greater participation on the world

Former Brazilian president da Silva with troops who were part of a UN mission in Haiti (Agência Brasil/Ricardo Stuckert)

stage.

Ambassador Amorim also highlighted his country’s record on promot-

principle of non-indifference to human-rights violations. However, he

ing security and stability abroad, primarily through UN peace operations

added that the country prefers to use non-violent means to resolve issues.

– most prominently in Haiti, where Brazil leads a large mission. Although

The event was chaired by Adam Ward, IISS Director of Studies.

Brazil’s stance is against armed intervention abroad, it has adopted the

IISS NEWS

Read more about the event.

DECEMBER 2015 | 15

DEFENCE AND MILITARY ANALYSIS

MILITARY STRATEGY

RUSSIA

EXPERTS

PAKISTAN

Strategy for the Twenty-First Century Harlan Ullman, Chairman of the Killowen Group and Senior Adviser at the Atlantic Council, addressed Arundel House on 12 October on the subject of a strategy for the twenty-first century. He argued that there is a lack of intellectual rigour in responding to global challenges today and made a plea for what he described as ‘a brains-based approach to strategic thinking’.

He suggested strategy be based more on knowledge and understanding as well as an acceptance that the twenty-first century is about interconnectedness (compared to the ‘binary’ nature of the previous century). He added

Preparations for a cyber readiness inspection at Altus Air Force Base, Oklahoma, US (Franklin R. Ramos/US Air Force)

that thought and action should be based on strategic outcomes rather than

government; economic despair, disparity and dislocation; religious violent

tactics. He called for the creation of a twenty-first century equivalent of

extremism in the shape of radical Islam; and environmental catastrophe.

the code-breaking capabilities of Bletchley Park in order to deal with the

The event was chaired by Nick Childs, IISS Senior Fellow for Naval Forces

information explosion of today. In terms of today’s challenges, the four

and Maritime Security.

new ‘horsemen of the apocalypse’ (as he called them) are: failed and failing

Listen to the event.

Russia’s New Naval Challenge On 27 October, Nick Childs, IISS Senior Fellow for Naval Forces and Maritime Security, delivered a corporate breakfast briefing at Arundel House on new naval challenges facing Russia. He argued that recent increases in Russian naval activity represent a significant challenge for NATO, particularly in the case of submarine activity. After a period of dramatically low investment, there has been some recovery, but the Russian Navy remains a shadow of the former Soviet Navy. There are also sig-

Russian aircraft carrier Kuznetsov (US DoD)

nificant challenges, not least in terms of industrial capacity, in turning Russia’s ambitious shipbuilding and modernisation plans into reality.

era. While these moves are sufficient to project an image of power, replace-

The navy’s core mission remains deterrence as well as acquiring signifi-

ment of these capabilities will be vital in order to sustain influence in the

cant capability to challenge NATO’s ability to operate in the Black Sea and

longer term.

Baltic Sea. But its ocean-going fleet ultimately remains rooted in the Soviet

Read more about the event.

Lessons Encountered – Learning from the Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan

The Pakistan Air Force’s Role in Ongoing Military Operations: Success and Challenges

On 1 December, Dr Richard Hooker, Director of the Institute for National

Air Chief Marshal Sohail Aman,

Strategic Studies at the US National Defense University (NDU), briefed

Pakistan’s Chief of the Air Staff,

IISS members on the work conducted by the NDU to assess the costs

provided a valuable insight

and benefits of the campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the stra-

into the challenges of using an

tegic lessons of these wars. He explained how the NDU was tasked by

air force intended, equipped

General Martin Dempsey, outgoing Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of

and trained for state-on-state

Staff, to identify the strategic lessons of these wars for the US military.

conflict in a counter-insurgency

Dr Hooker showed how in both Iraq and Afghanistan, the US and its

role.

allies struggled to achieve their strategic aims. Both wars also incurred

House on 27 October, the Air

considerable human and financial costs. He explained the principal

Chief Marshal highlighted the

conclusions of this work, including the key issues of strategic decision-

fleet-recapitalisation needs of

making, adaptation and the legal aspects of the wars. The event was

the air force in upcoming years as a number of ageing combat aircraft

held at Arundel House and was chaired by Brigadier Ben Barry, IISS

come to the end of their respective service lives. The event was chaired by

Senior Fellow for Land Warfare.

Douglas Barrie, IISS Senior Fellow for Military Aerospace.

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DECEMBER 2015

Speaking

at

Arundel Pakistan air force JF-17 (paf.gov.pk)

IISS NEWS

EXPERTS

IISS–MIDDLE EAST

GEO-ECONOMICS AND STRATEGY

IISS Bahrain Bay Forum 2015 The IISS Bahrain Bay Forum, which took place 28–29 November in Manama, commenced with the keynote address of Zayed Al Zayani, Bahrain’s Minister of Industry, Commerce and Tourism. Al Zayani discussed the inextricable link between regional security and business opportunities. Under stable regional conditions, economies are able to better facilitate business platforms and generate greater prosperity. For this reason, GCC states are realising the importance of industry diversification and are steering away from overreliance on natural resources, opening pathways for entrepreneurship and job creation. Al Zayani concluded by emphasising that, although economic reform can play a key role, it would not alone solve wider instability facing the region.

The first plenary session, ‘Perspectives on the Global Economy’, addressed global trends in the economy and analysed future business

Dr Sanjaya Baru, Director for Geo-economics and Strategy, IISS and Zayed Al Zayani, Bahrain’s Minister of Industry, Commerce and Tourism

opportunities in various regions. Huw Pill, Managing Director of the Global Investment Research Division at Goldman Sachs, mentioned that each region had its unique opportunities and challenges, but that broad commonalities remained in aftermath of the global financial crisis. Bill Emmott, former Editor-in-Chief of the Economist, discussed the global trend of slowing growth, particularly in Europe and Asia. He emphasised the impact technological innovation has had on the labour market. Dr Alia Moubayed, Head of Research for MENA at Barclays Bank, discussed the challenges facing emerging economies seeking to increase their growth levels and present themselves as attractive investment opportunities.

The second plenary session, entitled ‘Emerging Economies and the Middle East’, focused on the impact of economic trends in emerging mar-

Dr Haihong Gao, Director, Research Center for International Finance, China Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing during Plenary Two

kets on the region, bringing together speakers from China, Chile and South Korea. The discussion commenced with comments on the commodity

nomic issues, concluding the forum on an optimistic note. Teresa Carlson,

super-cycle and deceleration in China’s economy, before addressing China’s

Vice President of Amazon, spoke of the vast opportunities cloud computing

shift towards a more consumer-centric economy. The speakers discussed

is bringing to the public and private sectors, accelerating efforts in health-

the parallels between emerging markets and the Middle East, in particular

care and financial services. Abdulrahman Al Hajri, Business Development

dependency on commodity exports and the fiscal effect of this dependency.

Manager at TAQNIA, discussed the growth potential for technology in

The third plenary session, ‘Business Opportunity and Political Risk in

the GCC, especially for entrepreneurs and SMEs. Andre Pienaar, Founder

the Middle East’, assessed the significance of these themes in the context

and Director of C5 Capital, listed the key factors behind establishing a suc-

of the Middle East and the Gulf. Khalid Al Rumaihi, Chief Executive of

cessful technology sector, including collaboration, taking new steps and

the Bahrain Economic Development Board, introduced the session by dis-

fostering learning environments.

cussing the potential for business opportunities in this region. Dr Nelly

The forum also included parallel sessions on the subjects of Oil and

Lahoud, IISS Senior Fellow for Political Islamism, gave a broader assess-

Energy Markets, Strategic Risk and Cyber-Security, The Impact of

ment of regional risks, including those from extremist groups.

Economic Sanctions on Business, The Opportunity and Challenge of GCC

The fourth and final plenary session, ‘The Gulf and the Global Tech Economy’, discussed how the technology sector can drive growth, create

Skills Gap, and Asian Economies and the Gulf.

Watch all sessions and find out more about the IISS Bahrain Bay

highly-skilled-job opportunities and facilitate collaboration on socio-eco-

Forum.

Corporate Breakfast – ‘China’s GeoEconomic Strategy’

ate renminbi internationalisation, the launch of its ‘One-Belt, One-Road’ initiative, the founding of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the establishment of the China International Payments System. The discussion analysed both the domestic economic and geo-strategic considerations that were driving this change in policy, as well as some of the

On 27 November, Giri Rajendran, IISS Research Associate for Defence

risks and implications of this shift for market participants. It concluded

& Economics, held a corporate breakfast at Arundel House on ‘China’s

that, through these economic and financial initiatives, China is attempting

Geo-Economic Strategy’. The briefing assessed the increasingly extrovert

to bolster its bilateral influence, augment its regional leadership role and

approach China has adopted towards its international economic policy

create a Sino-centric, state-capitalist economic order as it continues its rise

under President Xi Jinping, including its moves in recent years to acceler-

as a global power.

IISS NEWS

DECEMBER 2015 | 17

FUTURE CONFLICT AND CYBER SECURITY

CYBER SECURITY

CHINA

EXPERTS

Media Launch: IISS Strategic Dossier on Cyber Security On 1 December the IISS launched the latest Strategic Dossier, Evolution of the Cyber Domain: The Implications for National and Global Security.

The event gave Editor Dr Eneken Tikk-Ringas and Contributor Dr Mika Kerttunen the opportunity to discuss insights gained while writing the dossier, and to map potential future developments in the cyber domain.

Discussions on cyber security have become a battleground for adherents of opposing ideological perspectives – amplifying, intensifying

US National Security Agency headquarters (NSA)

and recycling wider questions of security that long predate the evolution of the cyber domain. The unique role that cyberspace could play in

of sovereign states and the United Nations, rather than the more organic

a potentially dangerous redistribution of global power renders the need

and informal American, multi-stakeholder model. Questions were raised

to establish clear rules of conduct in cyber matters more urgent than ever.

as to how developments in the cyber domain have shaped the nature of

The panel emphasised how the cyber domain is a state-made domain

espionage, what the role of the private sector will be in addressing vulner-

that closely reflects the interests of influential states, often leaving devel-

abilities and whether ‘cyber brigades’ will be a recurring feature of future

oping countries out of the conversation altogether. Russia and China are

armed forces. The event was held at Arundel House and was chaired by

seeking to erode the United States’ global predominance in this sphere,

Nigel Inkster, IISS Director of Future Conflict and Cyber Security.

favouring a top-down approach to cyber governance that privileges the role

World Order and Strategic Stability: Managing the US-China Cyber Relationship

Watch the launch.

On 7 October, IISS Director of Future Conflict and Cyber Security Nigel Inkster chaired a discussion meeting at Arundel House with John Mallery, Research Affiliate at the MIT Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory and an Oxford Martin School Associate. Taking place shortly after the Obama-Xi cyber agreement made in September, the discussion focused on the cyber component of the US–China relationship.

On key matters relating to the internet, Chinese and US interests are fundamentally divergent, frustrating the task of establishing shared norms for online behaviour. These tensions are symptoms of the broader struggle over establishing the ‘rules of the road’ for cyber security.

Mallery used a world-order perspective to model several potential pathways to cyber-induced instability in the Sino-American relationship.

Suggesting a series of high-impact confidence-building measures, Mallery compared these steps to the recent agreement and proposed a compliance

US President Obama and President Xi Jinping of China at the US Ambassador’s residence in The Hague, the Netherlands, in 2014 (White House/Pete Souza)

UK-China Track 1.5 Cyber Security Dialogue

framework for managing the US–China cyber relationship.

Listen to the event.

the cyber domain and the development of norms of conduct, and provided a forum for participants to discuss the practicalities of Sino-UK cooperation on cyber-security matters.

Furthermore, the Dialogue presented an opportunity for the

On 19 November, a delegation from the IISS travelled to Beijing to take part

pre-launch of the new IISS Strategic Dossier, Evolution of the Cyber

in the fifth round of the Sino-UK Track 1.5 Dialogue on Cyber Security. The

Domain: The Implications for National and Global Security, to a selected

Dialogue covered issues relating to the applicability of international law in

audience.

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DECEMBER 2015

IISS NEWS

EXPERTS

NON-PROLIFERATION

IRAN

NON-PROLIFERATION AND DISARMAMENT

The Fourth EU Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Conference The IISS organised the fourth EU Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Conference, which took place in Brussels on 11–12 November. The conference, held in association with the EU NonProliferation Consortium, continues to go from strength to strength, bringing together more than 260 participants from nearly 60 states and international organisations.

This year, the event marked the conclusion of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action between the E3/EU+3 and Iran. Several sessions focused on this landmark nuclear deal, including a video introduction to the conference by Federica Mogherini, High Representative of the

Helga Schmid, Deputy Secretary General for the European External Action Service

European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice-President of the European Commission, followed by a keynote presentation by Helga Schmid, Deputy Secretary General for the European External Action Service. The Iran theme was continued by a dinner keynote from IAEA Director-General Yukiya Amano and a final plenary session assessing the prospects for the deal’s success.

In addition, the event discussed a wide array of other issues under the non-proliferation and disarmament umbrella, including autonomous, biological and chemical weapons, the Arms Trade Treaty, the weaponisation of space, and the security risks posed by other emerging technologies.

Full coverage of the conference, including videos of keynotes and plenaries, as well as transcripts and blog posts from IISS experts can be found on the IISS website.

Yukiya Amano, Director-General, IAEA and Lyse Doucet, Chief International Correspondent, BBC News

Next Generation Workshop

such as missile defence, conventional precision-guided munitions and

On 10 November, preceding the main conference, the Non-Proliferation

growing divide between nuclear deterrence and nuclear disarmament, as

and Nuclear Policy Programme hosted a Next Generation Workshop in

well as offering an opportunity to take stock of the past decade of non-pro-

Brussels geared towards young professionals in the field of nuclear non-

liferation efforts, based primarily on the case studies of Iran, North Korea

proliferation and disarmament, involving 32 participants from 18 countries.

and India. Participants engaged in a lively discussion, offering a wide range

The agenda spanned a wide range of topics, from emerging technologies

of national perspectives on the various issues, which were divergent.

JCPOA Implementation Workshop

UN, the EU and the United States; continued restrictions on certain activi-

On 3 November, the Non-Proliferation and Nuclear Policy Programme

nuclear needs. The latter, participants concluded, may prove to be the most

held a workshop in Istanbul focused on the implementation of the nuclear

challenging aspect of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action because of

agreement reached by the E3/EU+3 and Iran. In support of the United

its complexity and the fact that many states lack appropriate licensing

Nations Panel of Experts on Iran’s mandate to conduct outreach, the semi-

capacity. Sanctions relief, too, may be less extensive in practice than the

nar brought together government officials from Europe, Central Asia and

conceptual framework would suggest. While the legal and administrative

the Middle East, as well as representatives of the private sector. The discus-

arrangements will be in place, companies may still be hesitant to engage

sion focused on the timing and scope of sanctions relief provided by the

with Iran, for fear of remaining US sanctions.

Mark Fitzpatrick’s Valedictory Talk at Arundel House

space warfare to nuclear security. The discussions sought to address the

ties; and the procurement channel designed to supply Iran’s legitimate

has also been mixed; both the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and the Chemical Weapons Convention are close to universal adherence, while others, such as the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, have made less progress. Momentum in further reductions in

On 24 November, his last day in the London office before moving to

nuclear arsenals has also stalled. As Fitzpatrick reflected, the breakdown

Washington DC to become Executive Director of the IISS–US, Mark

in Russia–West relations and its impact on arms control is indeed one of

Fitzpatrick gave a valedictory talk entitled ‘Reflections on a Decade of

the three worst developments in the field in the past decade. The other

Proliferation Punditry’. Speaking to a distinguished audience, he sug-

two being Assad’s use of chemical weapons in Syria and North Korea’s

gested that the non-proliferation record has been mixed during the last

testing of nuclear weapons. On a positive note, however, Iran signed what

ten years, but concluded that containment has largely worked to prevent

Fitzpatrick considered ‘the most significant arms-control agreement of the

proliferation, with the exception of North Korea. In treaty terms, progress

decade’; whether it lasts remains to be seen.

IISS NEWS

DECEMBER 2015 | 19

IISS–US

IRAQ

SYRIA

ISLAMIC STATE

EXPERTS

MILITARY COOPERATION

Understanding ISIS: The Past, Present, and Future of the Islamic State ‘Without Zarqawi, there is no ISIS’, said Washington Post reporter Joby Warrick at the 10 November IISS–US event ‘Understanding ISIS: The Past, Present, and Future of the Islamic State’. Warrick, the author of the recent book Black Flags: The Rise of ISIS, discussed the origins of the group and the role of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, who he called ‘the innovator’ of ISIS ideology and approach.

‘Zarqawi would not have existed as we know him without a series of missteps by a number of outside individuals, including our own government,’ Warrick said.

Dr Nelly Lahoud, Senior Fellow for Political Islamism at the IISS, described ISIS’s distinctive approach to jihad and underscored the importance of drawing a clear distinction between ‘Islamists’ and ‘jihadists’.

‘Islamists are part of the political process, whereas jihadis reject the

Syrians near Kobane cross the border into Turkey, September 2014 (Shutterstock)

legitimacy of the political process altogether.’

Dr Lahoud also discussed the role of religion in ISIS recruitment strategies. ‘Theology does not seem to be something that is critical because we are seeing many young people who are converting to join IS,’ she said.

‘Islam is a ticket to becoming a jihadi, rather than jihad being a ticket to becoming a Muslim.’

Warrick concluded with a discussion of ISIS’s resources, many of which he said came from former US military bases in Iraq.

‘Without a doubt, ISIS is the best-armed, best-equipped terrorist organisation the world has ever seen,’ he said.

Watch the event.

Discussion with General John Kelly On 17 November the IISS-US hosted General John F. Kelly, Commander of the US Southern Command (SOUTHCOM), for a discussion on security challenges in Latin America.

General Kelly highlighted the distinct characteristics of the region and underscored the importance of strong US partnerships with the southern hemisphere in terms of trade, humanitarian efforts and drug interdiction.

He also praised Colombia as a success story in its fight against the FARC rebel group.

‘It started with the Colombian people changing. They changed their tax code, their military changed, they are much more human-rights-friendly.

US and Colombian marines training in Colombia (Samuel R. Beyers/US Marine Corps)

Twenty years ago, 80% of the countryside was either controlled by or influenced by the FARC; today it’s 4–5%, going down.’

The general also touched upon the reach of ISIS in the region.

‘In my part of the world my greatest concern is local radicalised recruits who stay in the region to do dirty work against soft targets. Think of the cruise industry. There are millions of Americans who enjoy cruises out of

Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Tampa, Texas – they have one-day stops in wonderful countries, but they’re a very soft target.’

The conversation was chaired by IISS Council Member Dr Eliot Cohen, Robert E. Osgood Professor of Strategic Studies at SAIS. Watch the event.

Mark Fitzpatrick Named Executive Director of IISS–US Mark Fitzpatrick, Director of the Non-Proliferation and Disarmament

also convened dozens of IISS workshops and

Programme at the IISS, began his appointment as the Executive Director

conferences across five continents for the Non-

of the IISS–US on 1 December 2015. Mark brings a decade of experience

Proliferation and Disarmament Programme.

at the IISS and 26 years of experience at the US Department of State

As the Executive Director, Mark’s mandate

to this new role. He is an expert on non-proliferation and nuclear-

will be to raise the IISS profile in both North

security topics and has authored numerous IISS publications, including

and South America, and to ensure the international engagement of

Adelphi books, Strategic Dossiers, Survival articles and more. He has

Americans in the IISS and the IISS in the Americas.

20

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DECEMBER 2015

Mark Fitzpatrick

IISS NEWS

PUBLICATIONS

New Adelphi Books

Algeria and Morocco; how the revolutionary states have

Adelphi 452

war while the others did not; and whether the sitting

North Africa in Transition: The Struggle for Democracies and

governments in Algeria and Morocco have applied sus-

Institutions

tainable strategies to address the new political climate.

fared since 2011; why Libya descended into a deadly civil

The book includes chapters on each of the four core

Edited by Ben Fishman The 2011 Arab uprisings began in North Africa and top-

Maghreb states, together with regional assessments of

pled the leaders of Tunisia and Libya, but the forces that

the jihadist threat and economic challenges. It analyses

wreaked this profound change also touched their fellow

the tension between security and political reform, and

Maghreb states of Algeria and Morocco. This Adelphi

argues that without persistent and comprehensive devel-

book examines how the politics, security and economies

opment of government institutions focused on creating

– which were largely stable for decades prior to 2011

jobs and providing security, the region risks future pro-

– have changed in the four states. It asks why the popu-

tests, terrorism or even revolution – a lesson that states

lar revolutions in Tunisia and Libya did not spread to

throughout the Middle East should take to heart.

Survival: Global Politics and Strategy In the December 2015–January 2016 issue of Survival, François Heisbourg examines the strategic implications of the Syrian refugee crisis; Elbridge Colby and Jonathan Solomon draw up a plan to deter Russia with conventional military forces; Sam Charap warns against exaggerating the hybrid-warfare threat; Elizabeth Pond explains the risks of Ukrainian corruption; Massimo Franco discusses the Pope’s visit to the United States; Theo Farrell and Michael Semple urge peace talks with the Taliban; Nina Kollars describes challenges of technological adaptation in war; Tim Huxley and Benjamin Schreer urge the US and states in the Asia-Pacific to stand up to China; Nien-chung Chang Liao and Dalton Kuen-da Lin propose a rebalancing of US–Taiwanese relations; John Gans contributes a review essay on David Rothkopf’s National Insecurity; David C. Unger, Chris Alden, Hanns W. Maull and Jonathan Stevenson review books on the United States, Africa, Europe, and counter-terrorism and intelligence; and Bill Emmott argues that the right questions about China concern politics, and not economics.

Strategic Survey 2015: Middle East and North Africa (Arabic) The year to mid-2015 saw significant flux in the Middle

tually sealed in July 2015, regional governments viewed it

East. Nuclear diplomacy between Iran and major powers

with scepticism.

appeared to have defused a very important source of inter-

This important chapter from Strategic Survey 2015: The

national tension, but its effect on regional security remained

Annual Review of World Affairs has been translated into

uncertain, with no sign of detente emerging between Iran

Arabic and is available to buy as a print version or as a pdf.

and other major Middle Eastern countries.

The print copy also contains the English translation and is

As the Iranian nuclear deal approached, and was even-

available from Amazon.

Appointments The IISS welcomes the following:

Anastasia Voronkova Editor for Armed Conflict Survey; Research

Dr Nelly Lahoud

Fellow for Armed Conflict Database

Senior Fellow for Political Islamism, IISS–Middle East

Cleo Dunkley Senior Conference Co-ordinator

Kevin Jewell Head of Knowledge and Information

Louise Tingle

Services

Conference and Events Administrator

IISS NEWS

For details of how to contact the IISS >

The forthcoming Military Balance 2016 will be launched on 9 February 2016.

DECEMBER 2015 | 21