IISS Newsletter Autumn 2016

IISS news 

Autumn 2016

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Book Launch . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

Obituary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

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International Forum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

South Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

www.youtube.com/IISSorg

Publications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2, 5

Security and Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

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Geo-economics and Strategy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

IISS–Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

www.iiss.org/iissvoices

Non-Proliferation and Nuclear Policy . . . . . . . 4

IISS–Americas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

US Foreign Policy & Transatlantic Affairs . . . . 5

Middle East and the Gulf . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

Contact us

Strategic Survey 2016: The Annual Review of World Affairs

Envisioning a Political Transition in Syria A Dialogue with the High Negotiations Committee . . . . 9

Bahrain–UK Forum Shared Geo-economic Challenges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

‘The underpinnings of geopolitics have splintered so

have created a situation in which world leaders are in a

much in the past year that the foundations of global

constant state of crisis control. The institutions that had

order appear alarmingly weak,’ said Dr John Chipman,

been created to contain crises are being bypassed or have

IISS Director-General and Chief Executive, at the press

shown themselves incapable, with the result that conflict

launch of Strategic Survey 2016: The Annual Review of

management has been renationalised.’

World Affairs. Covering a year of growing populism

Following Dr Chipman’s comments, a panel of IISS

and persistent conflict, the book analyses the events

experts provided an overview of significant develop-

that shaped relations between global powers, includ-

ments by region. Adam Ward, Director of Studies,

ing Britain’s vote to leave the European Union, Beijing’s

observed that ‘China and the US can’t agree on a strategic

land-reclamation activities in the South China Sea and

concept for interaction. The South China Sea casts them

the intensification of the Syrian war. It examines the

in mirrored indignation: both see themselves as uphold-

ways in which Western-led international institutions

ing inviolable principles and urgent practical interests.’

came under increasing pressure, amid rising dissatisfac-

Assessing the relationship between Western govern-

tion with ruling elites and resistance to globalisation.

Why Your Company Needs a Foreign Policy John Chipman for the Harvard Business Review . . . . . 3

ments and Moscow, Dr Nicholas Redman, Director of

Fighting and Negotiating with Armed Groups

Opening the 27 September launch at Arundel House,

Editorial and Editor of Strategic Survey, concluded that

New Adelphi Book . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Dr Chipman revealed that ‘multiple strategic earthquakes

‘Russia is driven by a mingled sense of insecurity and

EVENTS

frustrated entitlement … the descent into Cold War-like tensions cannot

As well as detailed chapters on each region and an opening

be reversed in the short to medium term.’ Emile Hokayem, Senior Fellow

‘Prospectives’ section, the book includes essays on the difficulties

for Middle East Security, contended that over the course of the year ‘dip-

facing the nuclear non-proliferation movement, the effects of geo-

lomatic efforts have been frustrated, if not defeated, everywhere in the

physical change on international politics, the role of technology in

Middle East by battlefield developments and regional tensions and divi-

shaping the character of conflict, and more. The Strategic Geography

sions.’ Virginia Comolli, Senior Fellow for Security and Development,

section includes maps on China’s Belt and Road Initiative, the develop-

remarked that, in Central America, ‘US engagement on security and

ment of the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, and the impact

development issues has now reached its highest level since the 1980s’,

of sanctions on Russia. These are complemented by the ‘Drivers

and that many countries in Central America were ‘adopting a more

of Strategic Change’ section, which identifies the most important

pragmatic approach, getting closer to the US and often electing centre or

overarching trends in each region, using select data and other

centre–right governments.’ Finally, Dr Chipman and the panel answered

indicators.

journalists’ questions.

Watch the launch highlights or read the press statement.

Bahrain–UK Forum Looks at Shared Geo-economic Challenges On 28 September, the IISS hosted government officials and business leaders from the Kingdom of Bahrain and the United Kingdom for the 2016 Bahrain–UK Forum, where they discussed the ‘Changing Geo-economics of the Gulf Cooperation Council and the UK’.

The Forum, sponsored by the Bahrain Economic Development Board, evaluated the changing dynamics of Gulf–UK economic links, regional demographic and labour market trends, as well as opportunities for British businesses to access fast growth in the Gulf, using Bahrain as an example of successful economic diversification. The event coincided with the bicentenary celebration of UK–Bahrain friendship.

The first panel session, chaired by Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive of the IISS, heard presentations from Zayed Al Zayani, Minister of Commerce, Industry and Tourism, and Dr Liam Fox, Secretary of State for International Trade, on what Brexit means for the Gulf.

in energy markets, the rise of China, economic reform in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and other regional dynamics.

Dr Chipman said, ‘The Gulf is undergoing a great transformation.

The six economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council are diversifying their

Sir John Jenkins, Executive Director of IISS–Middle East, chaired a

economies away from oil and gas and possess rapidly expanding, affluent

panel with insights from Alia Moubayed, Director of Research at Barclays

populations.’ Dr Chipman stated that these developments present ‘signifi-

Middle East and North Africa, and Florence Eid, Founder and Chief

cant opportunities for international investors, particularly those in the UK,

Executive Officer at Arabia Monitor. The panel focused on developments

given the historically close ties’ between the two countries.

PUBLICATIONS

New Adelphi Book

stand the challenges of using a combination of

Adelphi 459

groups. It considers which complexities have

Fighting and Negotiating with Armed Groups

proved most inhibiting, and which have been

Samir Puri

worked around. What are the obvious traps

What constitutes an effective and realistic strategy for dealing with non-

that states fall into? What appear to be the

state armed groups? This question has bedevilled states the world over.

smarter moves?

coercion and diplomacy in dealing with armed

Whether in Colombia, Turkey, Russia, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq, Israel-

Thinking in terms of ‘military’ or ‘political’

Palestine or the Democratic Republic of the Congo, governments have

solutions is unhelpful – a strategic approach

struggled either to fight or negotiate their way to a conclusion. The con-

requires a fusion of coercion and negotiation.

flicts in Northern Ireland and Sri Lanka are the exceptions.

Drawing on ten disparate cases, this Adelphi

Fighting armed groups is an uncertain business, and so is negotiating.

book draws clear lessons for the creation and execution of a coherent

Doing both alternately, concurrently or selectively, is highly demanding.

strategy for states involved in such conflicts, which often run for genera-

This book develops a framework to help analysts and policymakers under-

tions.

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IISS NEWS

GEO-ECONOMICS AND STRATEGY

Why Your Company Needs a Foreign Policy: John Chipman for the Harvard Business Review As the world endures a period of heightened geopolitical tension, the most successful multinational companies will be those that adopt a corporate foreign policy, argues IISS DirectorGeneral and Chief Executive Dr John Chipman in the September 2016 edition of the Harvard Business Review.

Chipman notes that over the past two decades, company executives have become more convinced of the need for their organisations to adopt a stronger foreign-policy attitude.

America’s declining appetite for foreign interventions, the proliferation of sanctions as an instrument of foreign policy (leaving business leaders to distinguish what they can or can’t do in a sanctions environment or tough diplomatic climate), and the thickening flows of commerce among emerging nations without the West as intermediary, have all placed a greater onus on companies to engage politically and diplomati-

firms that support the goals of the alliance may

groups may be supportive of company goals

cally.

do correspondingly well there.’

and which are likely to protest or oppose them,

Corporate foreign policy is, according to

He also points out that even though certain

Chipman, composed of two distinct elements:

regions of a target country may be bedevilled by

geopolitical due diligence and corporate diplo-

insecurity, there may still be large areas that are

Chipman identifies four key principles

macy. He argues that in an age of transnational

conducive to investment. But decisions about

that underpin corporate diplomacy strategy.

as well as local threats, companies must look

doing business in one part of a troubled country

Companies must:

beyond country risk reports when conducting

are not simple or straightforward. Companies

geopolitical due diligence. The deadly attack

need to formulate a coherent foreign policy

• develop their own approach to foreign

by al-Qaeda-affiliated militants at Algeria’s In

approach – neutrality may mean that invest-

governments, rather than manipulate

Amenas gas plant in early 2013 was a case in

ment opportunities are lost. At the same time,

or be manipulated by the policies of

point. It was conceived in Mali and launched

companies must not neglect the fact that the

from southwest Libya. Executives involved

greatest geopolitical and commercial risks often

• foster a transnational character –

in the joint venture between BP, Statoil and

occur close to home. The UK’s referendum on

though not to the extent of becoming so

Sonatrach had failed to take account of trans-

its EU membership had large ramifications for

stateless that they feel no obligation to

national and regional security threats when

the country’s businesses, leading many of them

assessing the risks to their operations, instead

to play an active part in the campaign to remain

relying on country-based analyses. Statoil has

in the Union.

and develop strategies to engage each constituency effectively.’

their home country;

pay taxes anywhere; • engage all actors across the government, the business elite or oligarch

now elevated its analysis of geopolitical trends

Addressing the second element of corporate

to a high management level, and it is carried out

foreign policy, namely diplomacy, Chipman

• achieve a genuine understanding of the

separately from capital expenditure planning

explains that it is both an opportunity ‘to

political and foreign-policy interests of

exercises.

enhance a company’s general ability to operate

the countries in which they invest ‘so

Sensitivity to regional political develop-

internationally and to ensure its success in each

that they can be fleet-footed in respond-

ments is also a key priority for multinationals.

particular country with which it is engaged. The

ing to political change’.

As Chipman explains, ‘International companies

general international reputation of a company

that are seen to be supportive of well-conceived

can be affected by its success or failure in any

‘Geopolitical volatility is no different from

regional initiatives can build a geopolitical sup-

given country, and likewise a company’s ability

other forms of volatility,’ asserts Chipman. ‘As

port base that positions them to capture future

effectively to enter newly attractive markets or

long as a company’s geopolitical assessment

value. For example, as Mexico, Colombia, Peru,

gracefully exit from suddenly unappealing ones

processes are comprehensive and its corporate

and Chile place greater emphasis on the inte-

depends on its broader reputation.’ Wherever

foreign policy shrewd, business leaders should

gration of their countries through the creation of

they wish to operate, companies ‘must identify

be able to navigate these challenging times.’

the Pacific Alliance trading bloc, private sector

the various stakeholders, understand which

IISS NEWS

class, and civil society;

Read the full article here.

AUTUMN 2016 | 3

NON-PROLIFERATION AND NUCLEAR POLICY

Regional Reactions to Nuclear Developments in East Asia On 1 July, the Non-Proliferation and Nuclear Policy programme at the IISS

future of civil nuclear activities in East Asia and different experiences of

held the fifth workshop under a MacArthur Foundation-funded project

reprocessing; nuclear security and non-proliferation; and broader regional

on strengthening cooperation between Chinese and Western policymaking

strategic issues, notably security on the Korean Peninsula and the debate

communities on nuclear issues. Held in Tokyo and jointly organised with

about Chinese strategic posture. The workshop demonstrated that a

the Center for the Promotion of Disarmament and Non-Proliferation at the

number of ongoing issues had the potential to influence regional relations,

Japan Institute of International Affairs, the meeting attracted more than

namely: nuclear fuel cycle policies and the development of sensitive repro-

30 experts from Japan, China, the Republic of Korea, the United Kingdom

cessing technology; strategic postures and relative military capabilities;

and the United States. Discussion covered a range of topics, including the

and responses to North Korea’s heightened provocations.

Promoting Resolution 2270 and the New UN sanctions on North Korea: Support, Clarifications and Good Practice On 16 September, the Non-Proliferation and Nuclear Policy programme

Commonwealth Office and was organised with the assistance of the

at the IISS organised a workshop in Johannesburg aimed at improv-

Institute for Security Studies in Pretoria. The meeting featured presen-

ing implementation of sanctions against North Korea in Africa. Only

tations from the UN Panel of Experts on North Korea, the British High

seven out of 54 African states have filed reports with the UN on how

Commission in South Africa and the Embassy of the Republic of Korea.

they implement these sanctions. The workshop was therefore designed

The event attracted more than 40 senior government officials from 12

to raise awareness and provide support to officials and policymakers

African states and generated constructive discussion about regional

from across Africa. The event was supported by the British Foreign and

approaches to sanctions implementation.

Report: Improving the Security of all Nuclear Materials

Special offer: 3 Adelphi books for the price of 2

All titles in the IISS Adelphi books series – the Institute’s flagship contribution to policy-relevant, original academic research – are currently on offer at three for the price of two. This is a limited opportunity to replenish Secure storage for nuclear materials (Dean Calma/IAEA)

your library with in-depth analysis of the world’s most pressing strategic questions by some of the most distinguished scholars of security studies.

On 20 September, a new report calling for stronger security for all weapons-

To mark the publication of 'Improving the security of all nuclear materi-

usable nuclear materials was launched in Vienna. Commissioned by the

als', a new report by the IISS, the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation

government of Switzerland and worked on by experts from the IISS, the

Studies and the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation,

James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies and the Vienna Center

we recommend the nuclear collection:

for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation, the report argues that the current

The Nuclear Collection

situation – where security efforts focus on the small proportion of nuclear

Deterrence During Disarmament: Deep Nuclear Reductions and

materials that are in the civilian sector, not the vast bulk in the non-civilian

International Security by James M. Acton. The author argues that deep

sector – should be of international concern.

cuts in the size of US and Russian nuclear arsenals would not undermine

Non-civilian nuclear materials – not just in nuclear weapons, but also

international security.

as fuel in naval and military research reactors, at fissile-material pro-

Nuclear Politics and the Non-Aligned Movement by Gaukhar

duction sites, in storage, or declared excess to military uses, but not yet

Mukhatzhanova and Dr William Potter offers a ‘unique and exceptional

eliminated – are often said to be well protected because they are under

source of accurate information and in-depth analysis of NAM's 50-year

military control, but the report outlines troubling security breaches that

struggle for a world free of nuclear weapons’.

demonstrate that this is not always the case. Mark Fitzpatrick, Executive

No Exit: North Korea, Nuclear Weapons and International Security by

Director of IISS–Americas, and Matthew Cottee, Research Associate for

Jonathan D. Pollack looks at North Korea's determination to pursue its

Non-Proliferation and Nuclear Policy, both contributed to the report.

nuclear ambitions, and the events and ideas that have shaped a renegade

Read the full report.

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regime.

IISS NEWS

OBITUARY

Obituary: Walther Stützle 1941–2016

never suffered fools gladly, was never

In 1967 this young political scientist, who had written his doctorate on the

gifts. His most outstanding was his

Cuban Missile Crisis, joined the IISS as one of its first German research

ability to offer and maintain deep,

associates. When he returned home a year later he had completed his

unwavering

apprenticeship in strategic studies, and remained an IISS member and con-

included many in the international stra-

tributor to the Institute’s annual conferences for many years to come.

tegic community who now mourn him

afraid of engaging in debate, never adjusted his sails to please the winds of fashion, and always played straight.

Walther Stützle was a man of many

friendship.

This

has

In Germany’s small strategic community, Walther stood out through-

together with his family and friends.

out his life. He was one of the few ‘inner-outers’, combining an impressive

Walther and I joined the IISS together

career in government with an equally impressive career as the director of

in 1967. I am proud and grateful for the

an international think tank, and a writer and commentator on international

many years since then of closeness and trust with this exceptional man. He

security matters. He never lost his passion for a safer world.

died, after a brief but painful illness, on 8 August 2016 in his home in Berlin.

What enabled him to serve both as a senior civil servant and a respected

Walther Stützle

Christoph Bertram

journalist were his independence of mind, loyalty, discretion and a com-

Director of the IISS, 1974–1982

mitment to his convictions. In both spheres, he never minced his words,

Read the full obituary.

US FOREIGN POLICY & TRANSATLANTIC AFFAIRS

The 2016 Elections: Implications for US Foreign Policy and Transatlantic Relations Dr Jackson Janes, President of the American Institute for Contemporary German Studies at Johns Hopkins University and an IISS member of long -standing, spoke at the IISS on 26 September on the topic of US foreign

A screening of a US election debate (DoS/IIP/US Embassy Phnom Penh)

policy after the 2016 elections. He provided an introductory guide to the complicated mathematics of the Electoral College, pointing out the inbuilt

still be considered the favourite to win in November, Janes argued, but the

advantage that Hillary Clinton held in the current election cycle. He

negative effects of the campaign on US political discourse would persist for

observed that Clinton was to some extent a known quantity, but her oppo-

years to come. The meeting was chaired by Dr Matthew Harries, Managing

nent, Donald Trump, was decidedly not – neither his advisory team, nor

Editor of Survival and Research Fellow at the IISS.

his priorities as president, could be confidently predicted. Clinton should

Listen to the event.

PUBLICATIONS

Survival: Global Politics and Strategy – October–November 2016 In the October–November issue of Survival, Anatol Lieven

nity for a new EU–Iran relationship; Ben Buchanan explores

depicts Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump as inheritors of

political and legal debates over cryptography; Eado Hecht

two traditions of American nationalism; Nigel Inkster inves-

and Eitan Shamir advocate increasing Israel’s ground forces;

tigates suspected Russian hacking of the Democratic National

Bruno Tertrais discusses recent NATO–Russia wargames;

Committee; Kori Schake explores the post-Trump future of

Russell Crandall and Savannah Haeger explore the crimi-

Republican foreign policy; Mark Fitzpatrick revisits the debate

nal violence ravaging Latin America; Ben Barry assesses the

over American nuclear weapons in Turkey; Sophia Besch and

UK’s Iraq War inquiry report; Erik Jones, H.R. McMaster,

James Black explore the early consequences of Brexit; Pierre

Teresita Schaffer and Ray Takeyh contribute book reviews;

Noël details a structural change to global oil markets; Seyed

and Rossella De Falco discusses the Italian state’s response

Hossein Mousavian argues that Brexit creates an opportu-

to organised crime.

IISS NEWS

AUTUMN 2016 | 5

SOUTH ASIA

Operation Zarb-e-Azb: Final Push to Defeating the Taliban Following the June 2014 launch of Operation Zarb-e-Azb in North Waziristan, Pakistan’s Federally Administrated Tribal Areas are now the only place in the world where the battle against terrorism is succeeding, claimed Pakistan’s Army and Air Advisor for the Pakistan High Commission in London. At Arundel House on 18 July, Colonel Zulfiqar Ali Bhatty said that security had improved noticeably across all of Pakistan since the operation – which targets militants, their facilitators and their financiers operating on the Afghanistan–Pakistan border – was

Colonel Zulfiqar Ali Bhatty

launched. More than 3,500 terrorists had been killed and 992 sanctuaries destroyed. Also, during campaigns throughout the previous nine years, a

maintaining the high number of troops deployed. Although the insur-

total of over 30,000 terrorists had been killed or apprehended following

gency had been defeated, eradicating terrorism remained a long-term

nearly 16,000 military and intelligence-led operations. At the same time,

challenge for Pakistan.

the Pakistan Army faced a challenge in sustaining military operations and

Watch the discussion.

India’s Policies Towards Pakistan and Afghanistan: Challenges and Opportunities

Pakistan’s Nuclear Diplomacy and NSG Membership: Opportunities and Challenges

The Taj Mahal Hotel, Mumbai, scene of the November 2008 terror attacks (Nichalp)

Pakistan Institute of Nuclear Science and Technology (Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission)

On 8 July, the IISS South Asia programme in London hosted a rare event

Speaking at Arundel House on 21 July, Group Captain Waseem Qutab,

– a top retired Indian intelligence professional speaking on the record

Visiting Research Fellow for South Asia (Strategic Affairs) and Senior

about his country’s policies towards Pakistan and Afghanistan. Rana

Deputy Director at Pakistan’s Strategic Plans Division, laid out Pakistan’s

Banerji, a former Special Secretary in India’s external intelligence agency,

case for criteria-based entry into the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), a

the Research and Analysis Wing, noted that India–Pakistan bilateral talks

group of countries allowed to trade nuclear technology globally. In a wide-

were beset by a ‘hurting stalemate’ due to visible disputes, identity issues

ranging discussion, Qutab argued that a non-discriminatory approach

and strategic pressure points such as Afghanistan. While Pakistan saw

from the NSG should encompass specific negotiated benchmarks as cri-

the Kashmir dispute as lying at the centre of any bilateral dialogue, India

teria for membership, as it discussed Pakistan (and India’s) membership

believed that there should be progress in terrorism cases, primarily with

applications in the following months. He argued that the steps taken by

the trial of the seven accused in relation to the 2008 Mumbai attacks, before

Pakistan at a national level provided sufficient evidence that it should

bilateral engagement could resume. Banerji highlighted the importance of

become a recognised stakeholder in the responsible trade of nuclear tech-

‘back-channels’ in the dialogue process, even though the current Indian

nology for peaceful purposes. Qutab warned that if the NSG followed

government did not believe in this method. Banerji also noted that India

a preferential approach by admitting only India as a member, it would

sought the security and stability of Afghanistan, but remained concerned

have a destabilising effect on South Asia. Fundamentally, Qutab argued,

over Afghan territory becoming a safe haven for India-focused terror

Pakistan’s nuclear weapons were for the sole purpose of ‘credible mini-

groups linked to the Afghan Taliban.

mum deterrence’ against India.

Listen to the event.

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AUTUMN 2016

Listen to the talk or download a transcript.

IISS NEWS

SOUTH ASIA

Truth Always Prevails: a Life in Business in Today’s Pakistan

growth and reduce corruption, given the fact that 60% of Pakistan’s population was under the age of 25. In conversation with Christina Lamb, Chief Foreign Correspondent of the Sunday Times, Hashwani argued that although Pakistan’s economic situation would likely improve with the

On 14 September, Sadruddin Hashwani, a leading Pakistani business-

prospect of the $46 billion China Pakistan Economic Corridor, it would

man and chairman of the Hashoo Group, was the first regional corporate

benefit China more. As the owner of the Marriott Hotel in Islamabad,

leader to be hosted by the South Asia programme in London. Following

Hashwani alleged that the Pakistani government was involved in the

the recent publication of his autobiography, Truth Always Prevails,

suicide bombing of it in 2008, which killed 54 people.

Hashwani strongly urged Pakistan to invest in education to secure future

Watch the event.

SECURITY AND DEVELOPMENT

Transitioning from Colombia’s Long War After nearly four years of negotiations, the Colombian government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) signed a peace deal aimed at ending over 50 years of war. Shortly before the signing of the agreement, the IISS gathered a panel to discuss this transition phase. The event included His Excellency Néstor Osorio Londoño, Colombia’s ambassador to the UK, Dr Samir Puri, author of IISS Adelphi book Fighting and Negotiating with Armed Groups, Antônio Sampaio, Research Associate for Security and Development at the IISS

Preparations for a recent peace march in Bogota, Colombia (Flickr/young shanahan)

and Gwen Burnyeat, a PhD Student at University College London. The meeting was chaired by Nigel Inkster, IISS Director of Future Conflict and Cyber Security.

Ambassador Osorio emphasised the sophistication of the peace process, considered by the UN as an example to follow for other nations in

The speakers were optimistic at the prospect of FARC’s overall willing-

conflict – especially with regard to the transitional justice system set up to

ness to comply with the cessation of hostilities. The continuation of illegal

provide guerrillas with alternative penalties to prison, while also aiming

economies, however, remained a potential source of revenue for the few

to fulfil a popular call for accountability.

guerrillas that refused to demobilise.

Listen to the event.

IISS–ASIA

IISS–Asia Networking Event On 1 September, the IISS–Asia office hosted a networking event for Singapore-based individual and corporate IISS members and their associates, with the aim of increasing local IISS supporters. Approximately 50 members as well as others drawn from the private sector, universities, government and think tanks participated in the event. Dr Tim Huxley, Executive Director of IISS–Asia, provided a brief introduction to the IISS and IISS–Asia, and presented the office’s current research interests and activities. He also gave an overview of the Asia office’s role in organising the annual IISS Shangri-La Dialogue and Fullerton Forum, as well as the IISS Fullerton Lecture series. Guests had the opportunity to meet not only other members and friends of the IISS, but also IISS–Asia research staff.

Non-members all received an invitation to membership, which Managing Director Clara Lee has subsequently followed up.

IISS NEWS

AUTUMN 2016 | 7

IISS–AMERICAS

Shangri-La Dialogue 2016 Retrospective: Managing South China Sea Tensions

Shangri-La Dialogue 2016 Retrospective: Nuclear Developments in North Korea

North Korea Victory Day (Stefan Krasowski) USS Curtis Wilbur in the South China Sea (US Navy/Ellen Hilkowski)

On 20 July, IISS–Americas hosted Seok-Soo Lee, Director-General of the On 29 June, four distinguished speakers – Amy Celico, Principal at

Research Institute for National Security Affairs at the Korea National

Albright Stonebridge Group; Weimin Liu, Minister Counselor of the

Defense University, and Dr Kongdan (Katy) Oh, Senior Asia Specialist at

Embassy of China in the United States; Christopher Nelson, Editor of The

the Institute for Defense Analyses. Chaired by Mark Fitzpatrick, Executive

Nelson Report and Fellow at Sasakawa Peace Foundation USA; and Josh

Director of IISS–Americas, the event highlighted recent developments in

Rogin, Political Analyst at CNN and Columnist at The Washington Post –

North Korea’s nuclear programme. During the discussion, Lee said that

spoke at this IISS–Americas event focused on territorial claims and rising

North Korea would likely continue to rely on nuclear weapons, as doing

tensions in the South China Sea. Views diverged over US involvement in

so would provide Kim Jong-un with the most cost-effective method of

the conflict; some panellists advocated for increased US involvement and

demonstrating power both domestically and internationally. Oh expressed

others stood by America’s current, more objective role in the conflict. In his

similar views, noting that North Korea’s continued focus on nuclear weap-

remarks, Liu acknowledged concerns regarding China’s recent behaviour

ons was in large part a reflection of Kim Jong-un’s desire for prestige. In

towards territories within the South China Sea and emphasised China’s

light of past policy failures towards North Korea, Dr Oh suggested that the

continued commitment to dialogue both with its neighbours and the US.

best way to counter the DPRK was to infiltrate the country with outside

He spoke about the need for robust cooperation between the US and China

information, to heighten awareness of the outside world among younger

when it comes to addressing broader security concerns such as terrorism.

generations.

Watch the event.

Watch the event.

IISS Shangri-La Dialogue 2016 Retrospective: A Conversation with David B. Shear IISS–Americas hosted a closed roundtable discussion on 28 July to discuss the impasse over competing territorial claims in the South China Sea, which featured Ambassador David B. Shear, currently performing the duties of the Principal Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Policy.

The event was chaired by Mark Fitzpatrick, Executive Director of the IISS– Americas, and focused on issues concerning the Asia-Pacific region. A part of the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue 2016 Retrospective series, the discussion also highlighted the future of US defence policy in the region, as well as the important role that the Dialogue plays in fostering diplomacy in Southeast Asia.

Read the full summary.

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Crescent Group, Paracel Islands, South China Sea (Swaminathan)

IISS NEWS

IISS–AMERICAS

Turbulent US–Thai Relations: A Conversation with Admiral Dennis Blair

China’s Cyber Power – Washington DC Launch

This IISS–Americas book launch featured Nigel Inkster, Director of Future Conflict and Cyber Security at IISS, discussing his new Adelphi US and Thai troops training in Thailand, 2015 (US Navy/Joshua Scott)

book, China’s Cyber Power. It was chaired by Mark Fitzpatrick, Executive Director of IISS–Americas. Inkster framed his discussion of China’s

IISS–Americas hosted this private roundtable discussion on US–Thailand

rising cyber power against the backdrop of the country’s emergence as

bilateral relations with Admiral Dennis Blair, former Director of National

a world power. After humiliation at the hands of colonial powers in the

Intelligence and current Chairman and CEO of Sasakawa USA, on 15 July.

nineteenth century, China had struggled to achieve a modern identity,

The conversation delved into the implications of Washington’s policy

economic development, social stability and the international respect it felt

towards Bangkok, as well as the importance of the alliance with Thailand.

it deserved, he said. Cyber capabilities became crucial to the achievement

A key point from the discussion was that the United States needs to bal-

of these objectives, which led China’s leadership to adopt a top-down

ance criticisms with a recognition of positive developments. In doing so,

approach to their development. Inkster concluded that China was seeking

Washington will be able to preserve ongoing cooperation with Bangkok

to challenge America’s dominant cyber position and act as a rule or norm

while addressing points of contention, such as the curbing of civil liberties

maker by promoting its own vision of ‘cyber sovereignty’, in which states

and proposed constitutional changes.

would have the right to determine what content citizens could access.

Read the full summary.

Read more about the book.

Nuclear Proliferation Success and Failure: Iran and North Korea On 14 July, IISS–Americas Executive Director Mark Fitzpatrick was featured in a webinar, chaired by IISS Director of Studies Adam Ward, which analysed the Iranian and North Korean strategic programmes, and assessed whether (and how) any lessons learned from the Iran deal could be applied to engaging with North Korea. Fitzpatrick began by assessing the current status of the Iran nuclear accord, stating that despite Iran’s continued ballistic missile developments, the deal had largely achieved what it set out to do – block all paths to a nuclear-armed Iran. When it came to North Korea, however, Fitzpatrick found few reasons for optimism. He

P5+1 ministers at United Nations Headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland following negotiations with Iran, November 2013 (US State Department)

noted that what was present in the Iran accord – leaders on both sides ready to compromise and accept both incentives and disincentives – was

efforts to stop its nuclear programme and that deals like the JCPOA were

lacking in the case of North Korea. He concluded by pointing out that while

reminders that future negotiations were not entirely off the table.

the North Korean case seemed hopeless, the US had not yet exhausted all

IISS NEWS

Listen to the webinar.

AUTUMN 2016 | 9

MIDDLE EAST AND THE GULF

Envisioning a Political Transition in Syria: a Dialogue with the High Negotiations Committee

Hind Kabawat, Member, High Negotiations Committee and Women’s Consultative Committee; Dr John Chipman and Dr Riyad Hijab

comprehensive national dialogue conducted in preparation for national

Dr Riyad Hijab

elections under international supervision. Dr Hijab said the plan would On 7 September 2016, the IISS hosted a delegation from the High

ensure a pluralistic, democratic and stable Syria, and stressed the impor-

Negotiations Committee (HNC) of the Syrian opposition led by its General

tance of a Western and Arab state endorsement of the HNC vision.

Coordinator Dr Riyad Hijab, Syria’s former prime minister. The event was

Questions from the audience sought clarification about rebel support

chaired by Dr John Chipman, Director–General and Chief Executive of the

for the HNC plan, issues of transitional justice and reform of the security

IISS.

sector. Dr Hijab insisted that the HNC plan had support from most large

Speaking in front of a large audience of officials, diplomats and journal-

rebel groups, which had endorsed its prior decision to begin talks last year

ists, Dr Hijab outlined the HNC’s vision for a political transition in Syria

under the UN umbrella and abided by the February ceasefire brokered

ahead of a meeting in London with foreign ministers of countries support-

by Russia and the US. He also clarified that military and security person-

ive of the Syrian opposition. The HNC was established as the opposition’s

nel who played no role in the war would form the core of the new Syrian

platform during the UN-mediated process mandated by UN Security

military structure alongside mainstream rebel fighters from the Free Syrian

Council Resolution 2254.

Army. A joint military council would enact reform of military institutions

Dr Hijab detailed a road map that would start with a six-month nego-

and continue the fight against extremists.

tiation period accompanied by a comprehensive ceasefire, release of

Describing the situation inside Syria as catastrophic, Dr Hijab criticised

prisoners, the lifting of all sieges and unhindered humanitarian access.

the Russian intervention and Iranian support for the regime, claiming that

Negotiations would then lead to the establishment of a transitional gov-

the departure of such forces and of Assad would decisively decrease vio-

ernment with full executive powers and the concomitant departure of

lence. Additionally, Dr Hijab highlighted weak US support for the Syrian

Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad and other senior government officials

opposition and voiced criticism of the US–Russian plan to coordinate

implicated in war crimes.

targeting of jihadi groups, and expressed frustration regarding Russian

These steps would be followed by 18 months of transitional administration, during which constitutional amendments would be made and a

strategy in the country and their support of Assad.

Watch the event.

IISS–CIRSD Roundtable: 100 Years After Sykes–Picot On 11 July, the IISS and the Center for International Relations and Sustainable Development hosted a roundtable, bringing together senior officials and analysts for an off-the-record discussion on the challenges facing the Middle East 100 years after the UK and France controversially redrew its borders. In the first session, ‘The Islamic State and Radical Islamism’, the speakers and participants addressed policy towards the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL. They recognised the territorial losses that the group had suffered while acknowledging that territorial losses did not necessarily mean the end of the idea of ISIS. In the second session, ‘Political Stability in an Era of Civil War and Low Oil Prices’, the speakers discussed institutional deficiencies as a fundamental aspect of regional instability, and in the concluding session, ‘Iran and the New Cold War in the Middle East’, speakers and participants discussed the Saudi–Iranian rivalry and role of the United States in the region.

A map of the Sykes–Picot Agreement, 8 May 1916. (Royal Geographical Society)

Read the full report.

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AUTUMN 2016

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