IISS Newsletter Autumn 2013

IISS news

18

Sept. 2013

Global Strategic Review . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

South Asia / Asia Pacific . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

Russia–Eurasia Programme . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

Non-Proliferation and Disarmament . . . . . . . . 20

Latin America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

Discussion Meeting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21

IISS–US . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

Transnational Threats and Political Risk . . . . . . 22

IISS–Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16

Defence and Military Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23

IISS–Fullerton Lecture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

IISS–Oberoi Lecture / Press Launch . . . . . . . . . 24

The 10th IISS Global Strategic Review

‘Assessing Global Risk’ Stockholm, 20–22 September 2013

Carl Bildt, Minister For Foreign Affairs, Sweden; Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS; and Espen Barth Eide, Minister Of Foreign Affairs, Norway

The 10th IISS Global Strategic Review (GSR) was

Syria, was ‘Who Manages International Security?’

of Eastern Europe, the Arctic Council and the pro-

held on 20–22 September at Stockholm’s Grand

The debate began with a pre-dinner discussion at

spective transatlantic free-trade area.

Hotel and the Waterfront Congress Centre. Sweden

the Grand Hotel on ‘Strategies for Global Risk’,

As seen from the North, there were, therefore,

and Norway were joint ‘Host Nation Supporters’

featuring Swedish Minister for Foreign Affairs

real achievements in international governance. But

of the event, a formula that will be repeated when

Carl Bildt and Norwegian Minister for Foreign

there was also a danger of strategic drift at a time

the GSR moves to Oslo in September 2014. Some

Affairs Espen Barth Eide as chief representatives

when the world community faced prospects of sec-

300 delegates from all major regions attended the

of the two Host Nation Supporters. They provided

tarian war ‘from Beirut to Basra’. Some years ago,

GSR for debate and discussion about the princi-

a view from the North that took in much of the

the Western powers, inspired by laudable ideas

pal drivers of strategic change at the global level,

global system, and ended in the frustrating, famil-

of humanitarian intervention and a ‘responsibil-

through keynote debates and plenary sessions

iar territory of the Middle East. Bildt started with

ity to protect’, succumbed to the hubris that led

dealing with large, overarching themes, and also

the observation that, just as Sweden’s wars had

to disaster in Iraq. The corrective posture of US

a dozen special sessions delving into particular

given way to a determined neutrality, so the era of

President Barack Obama was mainly to the good:

challenges, contingencies and crises. The theme

neutrality ended with Sweden’s 1995 engagement

‘nation building at home’ was indeed required,

was ‘Assessing Global Risk’, and a related strand

in the European Union. This engagement has been

and Obama’s caution meant, for example, that

of enquiry running through the event, given the

transformative, giving Sweden an important role

in Syria ‘we ended up in a better place’ – that is,

backdrop of the dramatic diplomacy surrounding

in such challenges and venues as the reintegration

with a deal for the disposal of chemical-weapons

global strategic re vie w stocks – than military action would have achieved.

Syria, the subject of the first plenary session,‘Global

vided some lessons. Notwithstanding ambitious

Nonetheless, Bildt worried about the ‘rapid shift

Conflicts: Prevention, Mitigation, Intervention,

goals and the application of development theories,

from the hyper-interventionist mood’ to utter dis-

Extraction’, became a central theme running

outcomes remained in doubt. Drawing upon these

engagement. Intervention would have to be ‘more

throughout discussions in Stockholm. At the first

experiences in Afghanistan, Eikenberry concluded

seldom’ but also ‘more determined’. Three issues

plenary Sergei Ivanov, Chief of Staff, Presidential

that ‘the cautionary note for future interventions is

would be key. In Syria, ‘there is no military solu-

Executive Office, Russian Federation; Juan Carlos

to look before you leap’.

tion’; diplomacy would have to be made to work.

Pinzón Bueno, Minister of National Defence,

For Israel–Palestine, US Secretary of State John

Colombia; Karl Eikenberry, Wiliam J. Perry Fellow

Second Plenary Session: Nuclear Risk:

Kerry had achieved a revived diplomatic process

in International Security, Stanford University,

Proliferation, Deterrence, Containment

that exceeded mainly grim expectations, but his

Member of the Council, IISS, each reflected on

In the second plenary session, Robert Einhorn,

failure would mean the end of a two-state solution

the topic using different examples, themes and

former special adviser for non proliferation

– extremely bad news. In Iran, the recent presiden-

geographical references. This highlighted not just

and arms control at the US Department of State,

tial elections had put forward a winner with whom

the breadth and complexity of global conflicts, but

Dr Camille Grand, Director, Fondation pour la

the West could do business; there was no sign of

also the range of factors that have to be considered

Recherche Stratégique, and Major General (Retd)

an Iranian ‘dash’ to nuclear weapons and an agree-

when contemplating interventions.

Amos Yadlin, Executive Director, Institute for

In his well-reported speech, Ivanov said that

National Security Studies, discussed ‘Nuclear

Eide spoke on the Israel–Palestine problem,

conflict continued to drive instability. It was impor-

Risk: Proliferation, Deterrence, Containment’.

where Norway as a state, and Eide personally, have

tant to coordinate responses and ‘stick to the letter

After emphasising the latest positive develop-

been deeply engaged. He reported the ‘strange’

of the law’, which ‘Russia views as a cornerstone of

ments in the field of non-proliferation, such as

recent experience ‘of visiting Ramallah and

international relations’. He stressed the role of the

Myanmar signing the IAEA safeguards Additional

Jerusalem … and leaving more optimistic than

UN Security Council in authorising the use of force;

Protocol and Abdul Qadeer Khan (of the black

I arrived’. In part, both Israelis and Palestinians

other than in self-defence, military force should

market nuclear proliferation network) dissolving

recognised that this ‘is a small piece of land’ that –

only be used after a Security Council resolution.

his political party in Pakistan, Einhorn highlighted

almost uniquely for the region – is not in turmoil,

Elaborating Russia’s position on Syria, Ivanov said

the main problem areas: North Korea, Iran and

and it would be useful to keep it that way. Yet Eide

‘we are not protecting the Syrian government, we

Syria. Yadlin gave a detailed assessment of Israeli

also warned that the Kerry initiative could repre-

are protecting the international law [sic]’. Defence

concerns about the advancing Iranian nuclear pro-

sent a last chance. The alternative of a one-state

minister Pinzón highlighted Colombia’s experi-

gramme. The panel discussed whether the new

solution would be dire, but we should not believe

ence of almost 50 years of conflict. Colombia is

tone in Iranian politics would lead to a resolution

complacently that it could not happen, Eide said.

engaged in implementing an integrated security

of the nuclear crisis and whether the Russian deal

ment should be possible.

Regarding Syria’s civil war, Bildt emphasised

and development strategy, which has reduced

on Syria’s chemical weapons was likely to work. It

one lesson derived from his long experience in

poverty and led to greater economic activity.

was highlighted that, should it be successful, inter-

Balkans diplomacy. Division among outside

The territorial reach of insurgent groups has

national organisations charged with implementing

powers can have ‘in itself material negative effects’.

been reduced dramatically, though diplomacy

proliferation agreements would be boosted. The

also remained critical to Colombia’s strategy.

challenges facing deterrence were also discussed,

First Plenary Session: Global Conflicts:

Ambassador Eikenberry discussed the US calculus

especially in light of the international community’s

Prevention, Mitigation, Intervention, Extraction

for intervention, touching on strategic, domestic,

‘lax’ approach to the use of chemical weapons,

In the shadow of recent debates and tension over

economic, political and legal factors, as well as US

according to Dr Grand.

the conflict – and possibility of intervention – in

scepticism over the use of force. Afghanistan pro-

Sergei Ivanov, Chief of Staff, Presidential Executive Office, Russian Federation

Juan Carlos Pinzón Bueno, Minister of National Defense, Colombia

2

|

SEPTEMBER 2013

Karl Eikenberry, William J. Perry Fellow for International Security, Stanford University; Member of the Council, IISS

IISS News

global strategic re vie w

(l–r): Dr Camille Grand, Director, Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique; Robert Einhorn, Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy Program, Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence, Arms Control Initiative, The Brookings Institution; former Special Advisor for Nonproliferation and Arms Control, US Department of State; Mark Fitzpatrick, Director, Non Proliferation and Disarmament Programme, IISS; Major-General (Retd) Amos Yadlin, Executive Director, Institute for National Security Studies; Member of the Council, IISS

Third Plenary Session: Geo-Economics as a

superpower’, and, as with Europe, it continued to

media in promoting these pressures, and others

Driver of Strategic Change

be strategically hobbled by debt, diffident public

questioned Chinese perceptions of Japan’s shift to

Chaired by Adam Ward, Director of Studies at the

opinion and resistance from newer strategic actors.

the right, suggesting that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s personal handling of the sovereignty

IISS, the third plenary featured Dr Sanjaya Baru, Director for Geo-economics and Strategy, IISS;

The GSR then divided into 12 off-the-record

disputes had in practice been relatively restrained.

Andrés Rozental, Founding President, Mexican

Special Sessions.

Some delegates stressed that there were reasons to be optimistic about inter-state relations in East

Council on Foreign Relations (Comexi) and Philip Stephens, Associate Editor, Financial Times. They

Session 1: Asia’s Conflicts: Tipping from Latent

Asia, in particular with regard to Japan and South

discussed ‘Geo-economics as a Driver of Strategic

to Active?

Korea relations. One delegate noted that conser-

Change’. Demographics, fiscal and financial capa-

Delegates discussed the potential for Asia’s

vative leaders often have more political room to

bility, technology, resources and markets were

latent conflicts to descend into active hostilities.

negotiate on sensitive territorial issues than their

identified by Baru as key elements of geopolitical

Consideration was given to the dangers inherent in

liberal counterparts.

power. Rozental described how economic impulses

current inter-state tensions, the manner by which

Delegates analysed the implications and sus-

have fed integration in Latin America, with new

escalation might occur, and what steps might be

tainability of the US ‘pivot’ to Asia. There was

networks and alliances now emerging in the region.

considered to minimise the chances of escalation.

agreement that the initial ‘packaging’ of the rebal-

While Mercosur and the North American Free

Special attention was paid to the discussion

ance was responsible for its hostile reception on the

Trade Agreement are the most prominent examples,

of territorial disputes in the East China Sea, and

Chinese mainland, where it had the effect of fuelling

the Pacific Alliance, the Trans-Pacific Partnership

the state of Sino-Japanese relations more gener-

mistrust in China–US relations. Several instances of

(TPP) and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment

ally. Presenters were generally agreed on the

Beijing’s alarm at the pivot were cited, such as the

Partnership (TTIP) have found favour. According to

causes behind the rise in tensions, in particular

discussion in its latest defence White Paper.

Stephens, economic adversity had helped to make

the role of popular nationalism in influencing how

Delegates also considered the impact of the

hesitancy the defining characteristic of the West’s

these tensions are handled in Beijing and Tokyo.

unravelling Middle East, as well as America’s

strategic posture. The US had become a ‘selective

One delegate drew attention to the role of social

domestic battles over sequestration, and on the

Adam Ward, Director of Studies, IISS

IISS News

Dr Sanjaya Baru, Director for Geo-economics and Strategy, IISS

Andrés Rozental, Founding President, Mexican Council on Foreign Relations (Comexi)

Philip Stephens, Associate Editor, Financial Times

SEPTEMBER 2013 | 3

global strategic re vie w

Session 1: Asia’s Conflicts: Tipping From Latent To Active? (l–r) Dr Tim Huxley, Executive Director, IISS–Asia; Major General Zhu Chenghu, Professor, National Defense University, China; Alexander Neill, Shangri-La Dialogue Senior Fellow for Asia-Pacific Security, IISS; Professor Yoshihide Soeya, Professor of Political Science and Director, Institute of East Asian Studies, Keio University; Japan Scholar, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars; Dr William Choong, Shangri-La Dialogue Senior Fellow for Asia-Pacific Security, IISS

capability of the United States to deliver on its

region is witnessing the convergence of national

the growing markets of Brazil, Russia, India

stated priorities. US–China military-to-military

sentiments and resource nationalism, giving rise to

and China. The group, now a formal forum also

relations were generally accepted to be at a low

what can be termed ‘resource regionalism’ – remi-

involving South Africa, shares key challenges and

point, although there were, according to some par-

niscent of the Movement for the Emancipation of

ambitions. That the economies of the largest mem-

ticipants, reasons for cautious optimism here too.

the Niger Delta (MEND) in Nigeria, and likely to

bers of the group are slowing down is undeniable.

become a larger force in the future. North African

However, these difficulties may also play a role in

Session 2: Assessing Africa’s Futures

hydrocarbons now face competition from shale gas

strengthening the resolution of member countries

This session examined Africa’s strategic trajectory,

produced in the United States, which diminishes

to pursue a deeper relationship. The BRICS have

through an analysis of security, political and eco-

North African economic power. Also significant is

taken steps to create institutions, such as the $100

nomic developments at the sub-regional level.

the uncertain security environment that character-

billion foreign-exchange reserve announced earlier

A common trend identified by panellists was

ises the region: the In Amenas attack in Algeria in

this month, and a BRICS development bank, which

the proliferation of non-state actors: al-Qaeda affil-

January 2013 has resulted in a daily loss of $5 mil-

is still being planned.

iates are on the rise, and Salafi jihadists pose the

lion for the Algerian government.

Another common challenge is that of push-

greatest threat to North Africa of the past 20 years.

It was noted that Africa is rising in strategic

ing for a more equitable set of global rules. This

In addition, piracy and illicit trafficking in narcot-

importance. It is no longer perceived merely as an

is a result of a common perception among BRICS

ics, weapons and human beings challenges the

aid recipient, but also as a trade partner. Several

countries that the current global governance

stability of several countries, and these phenom-

security challenges remain, but the impact of con-

structure threatens, to some extent, their sover-

ena benefit from weak border-control and security

flict is decreasing.

eignties. This is an ambitious strategy, pursued amid different and sometimes conflicting views

services. Politically, many countries, such as Libya or Mali, are still fragile in the wake of Arab Spring-

Session 3: BRICS: Future and Prospects

on key areas of world affairs – sparking criti-

related upheavals.

This session explored the ambitions and strate-

cism that the BRICS countries are too diverse to

gies of rising powers, amid an economic slowdown

achieve meaningful reforms in the global struc-

in many emerging economies.

ture of power.

In economic terms, the exploitation of natural resources has been crucial to boosting growth across the continent, but this is no panacea, as illustrated

The debate comes nearly 12 years after econo-

This view is countered by the argument that

by the hydrocarbons sector in North Africa. The

mist Jim O’Neill coined the term ‘BRICs’ to describe

the role of the BRICS is not to be a coalition, but a

Session 2: Assessing Africa’s Futures (l–r) Virginia Comolli, Research Associate for Transnational Threats, IISS; Dr Fernando Lima, Chairman of the Board, Mediacoop SA; Dr Geoff Porter, Founder and Director, North Africa Risk Consulting; Alice Friend, Principal Director for African Affairs, Office of the Secretary of Defense, US Department of Defense

4

|

SEPTEMBER 2013

IISS News

global strategic re vie w influence in the region through two key asymmetries: support provided to non-state actors on ideological grounds, and divisions within the Gulf over the level of support provided to the various factions of the Syrian opposition. It was also suggested that the transformation of the Bashar al-Assad regime into fragmented groups was necessary for its own survival.

Session 5: Israel and America in Obama’s Second Term This session, on the US and Israel in Obama’s second term, also considered longer-term dimenSession 3: BRICS: Future and Prospects? (l–r) Braz Baracuhy, Counsellor, Embassy of Brazil in Beijing; Consulting Senior Fellow for Geo-economics, IISS; Minghao Zhao, Adjunct Fellow, Center for International and Strategic Studies, Peking University; Catherine Grant Makokera, Programme Head, Economic Diplomacy, South African Institute of International Affairs

sions of the US–Israel relationship.

It was argued that the problems associated with Israel’s occupation of Palestinian territories, together with the prospect of an Israeli or American

tool. Unlike NATO, it does not have the aim of

foremost strategic interest. Iran continues to drive

attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, would in the long

being a permanent alliance in which disagree-

forward its set of strategic goals, but with a more

term undermine the centrist American consensus

ments are perceived as weaknesses. Instead, the

pragmatic approach. It was agreed that a change

for a close alliance with Israel. Potentially, the far-

BRICS umbrella can be a useful tactical tool for

in rhetoric could lead to a more fruitful outcome.

right and far-left organisations could drown out their more moderate counterparts on the issue.

different interests, while having in common the

Turning to the unfolding situation in Egypt,

broad aim of rebalancing power and influence

it was suggested that the ousting of President

A panellist argued that the politicisation of

in global institutions and rules. South Africa, for

Muhammad Morsi in July 2013 was a combination

the US–Israel relationship within the American

instance, links its membership with the broader

of coup d’état and revolution, in which new pro-

debate threatened the American consensus. In the

strategy of strengthening the African continent’s

gressive forces and large-scale mobilisations were

2012 election, it looked as though Israel’s prime

role in the world.

capitalised on by organised forces represented by

minister and the US Republican Party had formed

the army and the security establishment. The cur-

an almost open alliance. And yet, their effort to

Session 4: Strategic Competition in the

rent alliance between the new forces and the army

portray the Obama administration as willing

Middle East

remains unstable, and the interests of regional

to throw Israel under the bus did not prevent

Discussions focused on various displays of strate-

actors adds to this volatility.

Obama’s re-election or even his domination of

gic competition in the Middle East, such as in Syria

Finally, the discussion turned to the Syrian

the Jewish vote. There were, moreover, long-term

and Egypt, and Iran’s regional and international

crisis, focusing on how the Gulf states formulate

structural changes in US electoral demography

manoeuvring – since Hassan Rouhani’s election as

their Syria policy, and the consequences of Iran’s

that will tend to favour the Democrats in coming

president – to reaffirm its role in regional security.

involvement with the Gulf in a proxy war in Syria.

decades – and perhaps make them less attentive

Discussing Iran’s foreign policy following

Gulf security policy in Syria relies heavily on

to Israeli perspectives.

Rouhani’s election in June 2013, it was noted

Western commitments in the region, in addition

Another panellist argued that it was a mistake

that recent months have witnessed a change in

to its own regional security policy, which allows

to concentrate so exclusively on the Palestinian

tone, rather than in essence, of Iran’s regional

for the diversification of strategic alliances as long

issue, and that, contrary to conventional wisdom,

and international policy, which stems from Iran’s

as interests are aligned. It was proposed that Syria

Israeli public opinion is moving to the centre rather

unchanging perception of the Persian Gulf as its

exemplifies the level of the Gulf’s knowledge and

than to the far right.

Session 4: Strategic Competition in the Middle East (l–r) Dr Toby Dodge, Consulting Senior Fellow for the Middle East, IISS; Reader, Department of International Relations, London School of Economics and Political Science; Dr Ray Takeyh, Senior Fellow, Middle Eastern Studies, Council on Foreign Relations; Adjunct Professor, Center for Peace and Security Studies, Georgetown University; Rabab El Mahdi, Associate Professor of Political Science, American University in Cairo; Emile Hokayem, Senior Fellow for Regional Security, IISS–Middle East

IISS News

SEPTEMBER 2013 | 5

global strategic re vie w

Session 5: Israel and America in Obama’s Second Term (l–r) Dr Dana Allin, Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy and Transatlantic Affairs; Editor of Survival, IISS; Professor Peter Beinart, Editor, Open Zion; Professor, City University of New York; Major General (Retd) Amos Yadlin, Executive Director, Institute for National Security Studies; Member of the Council, IISS; Aluf Benn, Editor-in-Chief, Haaretz; Steven Simon, Executive Director, IISS–US; Corresponding Director, IISS–Middle East

groupings. The theme of integrating regional trad-

Another panellist observed that US–Israeli ties

Ukraine’s aspiration to meet EU standards – with

are characterised more broadly by shared inter-

the objective to making the economy more competi-

ests, shared values and deep trust. Shared interests

tive – was discussed. A comprehensive free-trade

meant, specifically, that Iran should not become a

agreement Ukraine negotiated with the EU would

Session 7: Models of Effective Defence

nuclear power, that Assad must depart from the

be applied, in a preliminary fashion, on ratification

Cooperation – NORDEFCO

Syrian scene, that Egypt should develop into a

in Ukraine and the European Parliament, rather

In Europe, declining defence spending, the

moderate democracy, and that the strategic goal

than awaiting ratification in all 28 member states.

rebalancing of US defence policy towards the

ing groups cropped up throughout the session.

Panellists observed that there was a competi-

Asia-Pacific region, and the need to engage in

tive element to relations between the European

crisis-management operations has reinforced the

Session 6: Competitive Integration in Europe

and Eurasian projects. On the question of forging

long-standing necessity of improving military

and Eurasia

integration between regional blocs, it was agreed

capabilities through international cooperation.

At their November 2013 summit in Vilnius, EU

it would be difficult for Russia and the EU to

Despite efforts within NATO and the EU to do

member states are due to sign or initial Association

create a common economic one thanks to internal

just that, under the banner of Smart Defence and

Agreements with Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia.

lobbying pressure.

‘pooling and sharing’, progress has been patchy so

is a two-state solution to the Palestinian problem.

The depth of these agreements is understood in

Panellists noted that both European and

far. Finland, Norway and Sweden have long coop-

Western capitals and Moscow to prevent signato-

Eurasian projects furthered the cause of peace,

erated on defence matters, but their interaction

ries from joining the Customs Union established

although crucially, the Eurasian one was a purely

accelerated significantly in 2009 when they for-

by Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus. At the start of

economic enterprise, whereas the EU was estab-

malised their collaboration in the Nordic Defence

September, Armenia suddenly announced it would

lished to prevent war between its members.

Cooperation (Nordefco) framework (which also

not sign an Association Agreement but would

Regional free-trade blocs are rising: if a transatlan-

includes Denmark and Iceland). Under the frame-

instead join the Customs Union. This followed

tic trade zone were established, they would account

work, these states have worked together on a broad

the imposition, by Russia, of trade restrictions on

for three-quarters of global trade. Although the

spectrum of military policy, including strategy,

Ukraine and Moldova that seemed designed to deter

Customs Union is designed to boost internal trade,

exercises, education, procurement, capacity-building

those states from moving closer to the EU at Vilnius.

it desires to forge trade agreements with other

and participation in international operations.

Session 6: Competitive Integration in Europe and Eurasia (l–r) Dr Samuel Charap, Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia, IISS; Andriy Olefirov, Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs, Ukraine; Andrius Krivas, Vice Minister, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Lithuania; Andrey Slepnev, Member of the Board, Minister for Trade, Eurasian Economic Commission; Dr Igor Yurgens, Chairman of the Management Board, Institute of Contemporary Development; Member of the Council, IISS

6

|

SEPTEMBER 2013

IISS News

global strategic re vie w

Session 7: Models of Effective Defence Cooperation - NORDEFCO (l–r) Dr Bastian Giegerich, Consulting Senior Fellow for European Security, IISS; Senior Researcher, Bundeswehr Centre for Military History and Social Sciences; Carl von der Esch, State Secretary, Ministry of Defence, Sweden; Torgeir Larsen, State Secretary, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Norway; Brigadier General Esa Pulkkinen, Director-General, Defence Policy Department, Ministry of Defence, Finland

In this session, participants examined Nordefco’s

capability needed for modern operations, unless

consequences. Asia’s growing demand for energy

track record to extract valuable lessons and analyse

the trade-off between national autonomy and

is expected to translate into an increased reliance

what makes it successful, but also to determine

cooperation was redefined.

on global energy markets rather than non-market options. It was also noted that Asia’s rising demand

what could prevent further integration. There was general agreement among delegates that Nordefco’s

Session 8: Building Energy Security: Can Global

will mean that global energy markets will be increas-

focus on capabilities, it bottom-up character driven

Markets Fuel Asian Growth?

ingly influenced by trends in Asia, and less so by

by the armed forces, and its flexibility when it comes

The session drew attention to changes in the global

those in North America and OECD markets.

to implementation were key advantages. Cross-

energy landscape with the emergence of new mar-

Finally, the panellists discussed the threat of

border air-combat training, maritime surveillance

kets, especially in Asia, and the decline in the relative

geopolitical risk to global energy markets. The

in the Baltic Sea (SUCBAS), and the Nordic Battle

importance of traditional markets, on account of

Arab Spring, sanctions against Iran and the situa-

Group were singled out as particularly encouraging

reduced demand, greater efficiency in energy use

tion in Syria have affected global oil supply. Given

examples in this respect. Some participants felt the

and the discovery of new domestic sources of energy.

that the United States and many other transatlantic

small group approach to cooperation that Nordefco

Panellists discussed the potentially far-reaching

economies are no longer as dependent on energy

represents was an important element of successful

consequences of these developments for energy

imports from the Middle East (just 16% of total US

collaboration because the countries involved had

markets. They emphasised the fact that energy

oil imports are from the Middle East), geopolitical

a shared sense of their security environment and a

markets’ supply–demand imbalances are corrected

events in the region would impact Asian econo-

long history of operating together.

either through price shifts or power shifts, that is,

mies more, given their increased dependence on

Other participants, while echoing the view

the deployment of equities. In the long run, it was

Middle Eastern oil and gas. Therefore, any disrup-

that Nordefco did yield real benefits, wondered

felt, markets and new technologies would address

tions in the region, especially in the Persian Gulf,

whether the initiative was ambitious enough to

the challenge of rising and changing demand.

would expose all importers, especially those in

meet the challenge of budget constraints and

Drawing upon Asian experiences in particular,

Asia, to price risks. Questions were raised as to

increasing global security responsibilities. Some

the session noted that the steep rise in fuel consump-

what all this would mean for US commitment to

panellists argued that even countries engaged in

tion since 1980, driven largely by high growth rates

regional and energy security in the Atlantic and

advanced cooperation initiatives such as Nordefco

of income in China and India, has contributed to a

the Middle East. Would Asian powers, especially

are likely to find it challenging to generate the

rise in coal consumption, with attendant ecological

China, step in as security providers?

Session 8: Building Energy Security: Can global markets fuel Asian growth? (l–r) Dr Sanjaya Baru, Director for Geo-economics and Strategy, IISS; Dr Pierre Noël, Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah Senior Fellow for Economic and Energy Security, IISS–Asia; Ben Luckock, Global Head of Crude Oil, Trafigura; Kyoichiro Yokoyama, Vice President Global Research Division, Nomura Securities

IISS News

SEPTEMBER 2013 | 7

global strategic re vie w

Session 9: Achieving Strategic Stability in the Cyber Age (l–r) Nigel Inkster, Director of Transnational Threats and Political Risk, IISS; Martin Howard, Director of Cyber Policy, GCHQ; Christopher Painter, Coordinator for Cyber Issues, US Department of State; Christopher Spirito, International Cyber Lead, The MITRE Corporation; Eneken Tikk-Ringas, Senior Fellow for Cyber Security, IISS

Session 9: Strategic Stability in the Cyber Age

defence innovation, and requires cross-border

trade routes and access to hydrocarbon resources;

This session discussed how strategic stability in

cooperation between virtually all countries.

a zone of geopolitical tension fuelled by a gold rush for resources and overlapping territorial claims; or

cyberspace can be achieved. Cyber attack is one of

Panellists argued that it is critically important

the largest economic and national security threats

for nations to police their own cyberspace and

that countries face, and is also one of very few public

ensure users are not engaging in illegal activities.

Climate change and the changing physical envi-

policy areas to which more funds are being allocated.

National laws on cyber crime, privacy and intellec-

ronment are the drivers of Arctic geo-economics

tual property must be enforced.

and geopolitics. Uncertainty over the surrounding

Capable governments are monitoring the

a zone of sustained peace and cooperation.

Internet on a global scale, and have observed state

It was agreed that there is no one formula for

science in turn causes strategic and commercial

involvement in espionage, intellectual-property

getting cyber security right. Not all governments

uncertainty. The timing and extent of the impact

theft and cyber crime on a very large scale, some

can exercise technological leadership en masse;

of climate change remains unclear, with projec-

of it very sophisticated. Government departments,

aggressive innovation for first use and deployment

tions and estimates of sea-ice extent and volume

defence firms, telecoms companies, banks and the

is a privilege of the few. Yet other niches exist,

– as well as the amount of recoverable natural

‘soft underbelly’ of the defence industry – such as

and can be created. There are things that all coun-

resources – constantly shifting.

law firms and PR companies – are common targets

tries will be able to do – such as reinforce existing

Panellists debated the possibility that climate

and victims.

international norms, or cooperate to avoid mis-

change could speed up the transition to a low-

appropriation and escalation in cases of conflict.

carbon economy, thus decreasing demand for

Strategic national judgement is needed.

hydrocarbons. Mining may become more important

The US has led the objective of international cyber stability, where cooperation and economic

than oil and gas – although climate change could

growth are incentives to avoid and mitigate conflict.

This can be achieved by promoting norms of state

Session 10: Climate Change and the Strategic

also be making this more difficult, as melting per-

behaviour and confidence-building through the

Future of the Arctic

mafrost and ice highways make sites less accessible.

application of existing international law regulat-

The session prompted wide agreement on the need

The prospects for new sea lines of communication

ing cyberspace. Cyber security is a comprehensive

to provide a correction to prevailing media narra-

(SLOCs) were described as overly optimistic by one

effort, requiring a combination of civilian and mili-

tives that cast the Arctic as a zone of vast economic

panellist, particularly with regard to the Northwest

tary, public and private, efforts, from education to

opportunity, thanks to the opening-up of new

Passage in North America, although another per-

Session 10: Climate Change and the Strategic Future of the Arctic (l–r) Christian Le Mière, Senior Fellow for Naval Forces and Maritime Security, IISS; Dr Jeffrey Mazo, Consultant Editor, Survival; Consulting Senior Fellow for Environmental Security and Science Policy, IISS; Professor Whitney Lackenbauer, Associate Professor and Chair, Department of History, St Jerome’s University, University of Waterloo; Niklas Granholm, Deputy Director of Studies, Swedish Defence Research Agency; Dr Bjørn Gunnarsson, Managing Director, Centre for High North Logistics

8

|

SEPTEMBER 2013

IISS News

global strategic re vie w

Session 11: Developing Corporate Foreign Policies (l–r) Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS; Sir John Scarlett, Senior Advisor, Morgan Stanley; Chairman of the Strategic Advisory Committee, Statoil; Rafael Tiago Juk Benke, Global Head, Corporate Affairs, Vale; Karim Raslan, Group Chief Executive Officer, KRA Group; Hubert Loiseleur des Longchamps, Senior Vice-President, Public Affairs, Total S. A.

ceived the future of the Arctic as forming a conduit

policies and practices of foreign governments, the

Taking into account the development of popu-

between Europe, North America and Asia.

relationships within such governments, social cor-

lations affected by such projects, the development

Strategically, the Arctic can no longer be per-

porate responsibility, and a general understanding

of strong corporate social responsibility in addition

ceived in isolation from the rest of the world.

of political risk, disorder, security of operations

to a sophisticated system of understanding politi-

Non-Arctic states are increasingly including the

and espionage. Such skills are readily available in

cal risk has been vital in ensuring effective foreign

Arctic in their strategic – as well as economic – cal-

various government institutions due to the long

policy for companies involved in natural resources.

culus. Analysts in India are now concerned with the

history of cross-border trade and foreign relations,

Finally, it was agreed that links between gov-

‘Bering dilemma’ – that the eventual opening of the

but companies will need to develop and acquire

ernments and corporations are bound to exist and

Northern Sea Route could decrease India’s ability to

those skills through learning and practice.

therefore there is a need to define a sustainable and

contain China, whose dependence on Indian Ocean SLOCs is known as the ‘Malacca dilemma’.

To build a coherent foreign policy, a company

long-term corporate foreign policy. In parallel to

must be able to assess and analyse regional order

this, corporations should develop diplomacy and

The region’s lack of security architecture

– to do this it must be able to build relationships

foreign-policy skills to be credible in the interna-

means it may need some geopolitical assistance.

on a regional level, possess strong senior represen-

tional arena.

However, panellists felt that concern about con-

tatives and, most importantly, maintain effective

flict is overblown. Increased military procurement

relationships with the government in the country

Session 12: Achieving an Effective European

is mainly for the purposes of modernisation, and

of operation to enable local, regional and interna-

Defence Industrial Structure

most known and estimated Arctic hydrocarbons

tional manoeuvring.

The substance of the discussion was one of grow-

are located within undisputed borders, and are therefore unlikely to lead to confrontation.

The complexity of the issue was demonstrated

ing importance. The defence industry faces serious

by analysing the case of mining investments,

challenges as domestic budgets continue to fall

which transcend known geopolitics and geo-eco-

and the export arena grows increasingly fierce.

Session 11: Developing Corporate Foreign Policies

nomics because they involve strategic access to

The failure of the proposed merger between BAE

This session focused on the elements of effective

natural resources – a source of contention because

Systems and the European Aeronautic Defence and

corporate foreign policy. Panellists proposed that

it touches upon issues of sovereignty and resource

Space Company NV (EADS) in 2012 was commented

companies should have an understanding of the

nationalism.

upon several times as a setback for the sector, with some speculation as to whether another deal on this

Session 12: Achieving an Effective European Defence Industrial Structure (l–r) Alexander Nicoll, Director of Editorial; Editor of Strategic Survey; Editor of Strategic Comments, IISS; John Dowdy, Director, McKinsey and Company; Sir Brian Burridge, Vice-President, Strategic Marketing, Finmeccanica UK

scale was likely or achievable in the near to medium term. No consensus emerged on this point, with suggestions that the nature of the European labour market and the difficulty of driving significant costsavings from cutting out job duplication would act increasingly as a disincentive. Domestic German political issues were attributed as the primary cause of the failure of the BAE–EADS deal.

While defence is on the agenda for the European Community Summit to be held in December, the extent to which Brussels has any influence or impact on the sector remains contentious. The EC’s two main military powers, France and the United Kingdom, are wary at least of the European Commission extending its competence in the defence arena. While some argued collaboration

IISS News

SEPTEMBER 2013 | 9

global strategic re vie w

Keynote Event: Who Manages International Security? (l–r) Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS; Professor François Heisbourg, Chairman of the Council, IISS; Dr Maleeha Lodhi, Special Adviser for International Affairs, Jang Group; former Ambassador of Pakistan to the US and High Commissioner to the UK; Member of the Council, IISS; Dr Igor Yurgens, Chairman of the Management Board, Institute of Contemporary Development; Member of the Council, IISS; Ellen Laipson, President and Chief Executive Officer, Henry L Stimson Center; Member of the Council, IISS

needed to be the default approach, there remains

ening West no longer able to support the global

between effective multilateralism and geopolitical

the challenge of crafting multinational programmes

commons as effectively as before, and the challenge

deals among large powers. Under these circum-

that do not suffer the delays and cost escalation

posed to the emerging powers of how to respond

stances, it was possible to manage problems. But

associated with previous European efforts, or

to this ‘semi-vacuum’. Heisbourg ended with an

the resolution of problems was more difficult,

at least not to the same extent. Adopting a ‘best-

admonition, a warning and caveat. Firstly, the West

requiring greater political focus and diplomatic

athlete’ approach, with prime contractors and

would need to get used to operating in a wider

agility than was available.

work-share on programmes based on competence

system more Westphalian than their own, while

and capability – rather than reflecting the funding

emerging powers would have to learn to loosen

Fourth Plenary Session: Iran, Syria and Egypt

levels of participating nations – was viewed as one

their attachment to classical notions of exclusive

The fourth plenary session delved deeply into the

means of improving project performance.

sovereignty if global challenges were to be tackled.

complexities of the regional politics of the Middle

Trying to better shape Europe’s fragmentary

Secondly, power contests between states will persist.

East. The three speakers – General Fares Al

research-and-development spend through the

Lastly, for all its present travails, the West would not

Mazrouei, Assistant Foreign Minister for Security

EC’s European Defence Agency, however, was

disappear as a strategic actor of global consequence.

Affairs, UAE; Major General Simon Mayall, Senior

raised as a means of trying to offset the worst

Maleeha Lodhi argued that multilateral struc-

Adviser for the Middle East, Ministry of Defence,

impact of funding cuts in this area. Europe spends

tures at the global and regional level had over the

UK; and Steven Simon, Executive Director, IISS–

less collectively on research and development

last 50 years not lived up to hopes and expectations.

US and Corresponding Director, IISS–Middle East

than the United States does, and it spends it far

Nevertheless, while recourse to multilateralism

– examined the status of political developments in

less effectively. The importance of developing and

was more difficult and more cumbersome, the

Syria, Egypt and Iran, their interlinked nature and

exploiting the next generation of military-applica-

UN system was the best available mechanism for

their regional impact. Al Mazrouei highlighted

ble technologies was also underscored.

managing security. It had strong sources of legiti-

the necessity of supporting the political process

macy to call on, and scope to practise ‘variable Keynote Event: Who Manages International

political geometry’, as in the case of the Middle

Security?

East, or in respect of diplomatic initiatives towards

The Saturday evening debate addressed the ques-

North Korea and Iran. Lodhi called for a renewal

tion ‘who manages international security?’ There

of commitment to the principles underpinning the

were four panellists drawn from the IISS Council.

UN, with rejection of the use of force outside UN

François Heisbourg, Chairman of the Council,

authorisation being key.

said the answer was ‘everybody, and therefore

Igor Yurgens also stressed that Russia sees the

nobody’. It might have been expected that the

UN as ‘the pillar and cornerstone’ of the security

transition from Cold War bipolarity to the present

system. Yet Russia felt simultaneously both secure

multipolarity would have led to the construction of

and insecure within it. A nuclear deterrent made

a classical ‘concert of powers’. But the complex dif-

Moscow confident that it could deter major aggres-

fusion of power on the one hand, and the elusive,

sion, but Russia had few allies and few friends as

transnational character of problems thrown up by

it rubbed up against China, the US, the EU and

globalisation on the other, had made this difficult.

NATO. Ideally, Russia would be a balancing force.

The good news was that this created circumstances

The diplomacy around Syria gave Russia a chance

less conducive to the emergence of an oppressive

to start to act in this way.

form of hegemony; the bad news is that disrup-

Ellen Laipson agreed that if the Syrian enter-

tion at the local and regional level, and by non-state

prise were a success, confidence in the effective

actors, was much easier to achieve. The dominant

management of international security would grow.

features of the international system were a weak-

The world faced a hybrid system somewhere

10

|

SEPTEMBER 2013

Steven Simon, Executive Director, IISS–US; Corresponding Director, IISS–Middle East

IISS News

global strategic re vie w

(l–r) Major-General Faris Mohammed Ahmed Suhail Al Mazrouei, Assistant Foreign Minister for Security and Military Affairs, United Arab Emirates and Emile Hokayem, Senior Fellow for Regional Security, IISS–Middle East, during the discussion following Saturday’s Fourth Plenary

Lieutenant-General Simon Mayall, Defence Senior Adviser for the Middle East, Ministry of Defence

in Egypt put in place by civilian and military

had in defining a policy that addressed the magni-

do exercise collective bargaining. But the globalisa-

authorities after the ouster of Muhammad Morsi.

tude of the challenge. The nuclear challenge posed

tion of market economics and the communication

He stressed that discontent with the rule of Morsi

by Iran and the opportunities offered by its new

revolution have diluted the notion of a cohesive

resulted from his ‘hegemonic’ approach and said

president Hassan Rouhani occupied much of the

‘South’. Instead, increased cooperation between

that any new political arrangement would need to

discussion, with panellists striking a cautious note

these countries is only one part of their opening to

be inclusive. Al Mazrouei also insisted that a dem-

on recent optimism.

the wider world. As economies develop, they rely on Western investment and technology. Regional

ocratic, inclusive Syria could not emerge while Bashar al-Assad remained in power. Mayall called

Fifth Plenary Session: Measuring ‘South-South’

forums like APEC, ASEM, TTP or the East Asia

on the audience to reflect on the nature and risks

Strategic Networks

Summit remain shaped by the interests of powerful

posed by political change and instability in the

The fifth plenary session, chaired by Dr John

developed countries. India’s own trajectory reflects

Arab world. He warned about Western tendencies

Chipman,

Chief

this complex reality. The unprecedented expansion

to project democratic models onto the Middle East

Executive, discussed ‘Measuring ‘South–South’

of its trade from near-abroad to other continents is

that ignore or discard the centrality of religion and

Strategic Networks’. Kanwal Sibal, former Indian

partly driven by strategic intent, not only economic

other forms of identity. Simon offered a compre-

Foreign Secretary, said cooperation between devel-

momentum. But India’s main economic partners

hensive and sober assessment of the Syrian crisis.

oping economies has become multifaceted after

are established, if not Western powers: the US as

He highlighted its complexity, including its geo-

shedding its anti-Western bias. Regional coopera-

the single largest economic partner and the EU as a

politics and the fragmentation of the rebellion,

tion groups exist. In some trade, environment or

bloc; China for goods; and Russia for defence.

and explained the difficulty Western states have

climate-change negotiations, developing countries

IISS

Director-General

and

(l–r) Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS; and Kanwal Sibal, Former Foreign Secretary, India

IISS News

James Steinberg, Dean, Maxwell School and Professor, Social Science, International Affairs and Law, Syracuse University; former US Deputy Secretary of State

SEPTEMBER 2013 | 11

global strategic re vie w challenges in the form of high rates of unemployment, rising costs of living and a sense of political disenfranchisement. Largely, however, their calls were for a greater role in the political process, and while issues surrounding tribalism and sectarianism existed, it was important not to overstate them. In West Africa, Virginia Comolli, Research Associate for Transnational Threats, IISS, argued that protesters lacked the organisational power of strong trade unions and religious institutions, and the mobilising power of social media. Her presentation also examined the geo-economic effects of protests on inward investment and youth frustration with jobless growth.

Antonio Sampaio, Research Analyst for Latin America, IISS, provided analysis of political activism in Brazil and Chile, where a rapidly expanding middle class was vibrantly (and occasionally Professor François Heisbourg, Chairman of the Council, IISS

Wafa Alsayed, Research Analyst, IISS–Middle East

violently) expressing their desire for change and revision of existing social contracts. Endy Bayuni, Editor of the Jakarta Post, stated that the wind of

Reviewing the global landscape of South–

developed countries interact in the same groups.

political change blows slowly through Southeast

South cooperation, James Steinberg, Dean of

Steinberg cited US and European interactions with

Asia but it had come to Indonesia and was

Maxwell School at Syracuse University and

African states for interventions in crises such as

approaching Myanmar. Bayuni also stressed the

former US Deputy Secretary of State, pointed out

that in Somalia. Global governance debates within

importance of civil society, not in imposing change

that a major driver for recent initiatives has been

the G20 were also cited. These initiatives, he said,

but in providing a stabilising force and maintain-

the opposition to a unipolar system. The most

give emerging powers greater roles and voices in

ing the integrity of the state in the event that the

common target has been the United States, due

world affairs, and provide good frameworks for

regime falls.

to its position as a global power. Groups such as

the future.

The IISS is immensely grateful for the role of the Swedish and Norwegian Ministries of Foreign

the Venezuela-led ALBA (Bolivarian Alliance for the Americas) still define themselves according to

Sixth Plenary Session: Political Activism and its

Affairs in supporting the GSR in 2013 and 2014.

what they are against rather than what they are

Geo-Political Effects

The Institute also acknowledges the kind sup-

for, he said. But after the Cold War, another driver

The final plenary session examined ‘Political

port of BAE Systems, Lockheed Martin, Northrop

of South–South cooperation has been the growing

Activism and its Geopolitical Effects’. Wafa

Grumman, Orascom Construction Industries,

capacity and relevance of developing countries for

Alsayed, Research Analyst, IISS–Middle East, said

Reliance Industries, Saab AB, Statoil and the

debates on global issues. A model for the future is

the emergence of the Gulf youth as political actors

Bahrain Economic Development Board.

that of hybrid systems, in which developing and

should not be a surprise since they faced acute

Virginia Comolli, Research Associate for Transnational Threats, IISS

Antonio Sampaio, Research Analyst for Latin America, IISS

12

|

SEPTEMBER 2013

Endy Bayuni, Senior Editor, Jakarta Post

IISS News

russia–eurasia pr ogramme / LATIN AMERICA

Oil as an Instrument of Russian Foreign and Security Policy Russia’s use of gas supply as a tool of policy has received considerable scrutiny in recent years, but the relationship between oil supply and foreign policy has received much less attention. On 2 July, Dr Nicholas Redman, IISS Senior Fellow for Geopolitical Risk and Economic Security, presented an analysis of the actors, methods and objectives that influence Russian oil policy towards neighbouring states. By building new pipelines and terminals, using supplies to gain control of key infrastructure, keeping other CIS oil producers dependent on Russian pipelines, and opening a new window on Asia, Russia’s state agencies and oil companies have helped to shape the country’s relations with neighbours from west to east.

The meeting was held at Bloomsbury House, London, and was chaired by Adam Ward, IISS Director of Studies.

Adam Ward and Dr Nicholas Redman

Watch the discussion at http://bit.ly/182sRaA.

Egypt’s Transition Fatigue – a Russian Perspective On 29 July, just a few weeks after Egypt’s military ousted President Morsi from office, the renowned Russian Arabist Professor Vitaly Naumkin gave a Russian perspective on Egypt’s reform fatigue. He argued that Russia had been ill-prepared for the downfall of the Mubarak regime in 2011, and had hesitated to build ties to the Muslim Brotherhood. Over the last year, however, Moscow has concluded that the Brotherhood is a force that cannot be ignored, and it has sought to engage it.

Professor Naumkin contended that this analysis holds, despite the overthrow of Morsi and the risk that the army will seek to ban the Brotherhood as a political entity. Egypt is at the start of a lengthy, contested transition that will be difficult. Responding to questions, Professor Naumkin raised the worrying prospect that the Brotherhood’s younger supporters would react to the military coup by rejecting democratic politics and working to regain power by other means.

Professor Vitaly Naumkin

The meeting was chaired by Dr Nicholas Redman, IISS Senior Fellow for Geopolitical Risk and Economic Security.

Watch the discussion at http://bit.ly/1fCL6HL.

South America after Chavez For 14 years, Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez conducted an active and often inflammatory foreign-policy campaign. Upon winning the elections that followed Chavez’s death earlier this year, Nicolas Maduro inherited a divided country that is rapidly losing the economic power to sustain Chavez’s alliances and ambitions.

The passing of the charismatic Chavez and the growing instability in Venezuela point to a decline in support for left-wing allies in Latin America.

The main beneficiary of this realignment could be Brazil, whose influence in South America is increasing.

Antonio Sampaio, Research Analyst for Latin America at the IISS, examined the challenges for Venezuela and the regional shifts after Chavez. He authored an article on this topic in the June–July issue of Survival: Global Politics and Strategy. The meeting was chaired by Dr Dana Allin, Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy and Transatlantic Affairs; Editor of Survival at the IISS. Watch the discussion at http://bit.ly/14utAy8.

IISS News

Dr Dana Allin and Antonio Sampaio

SEPTEMBER 2013 | 13

IISS–us

Security in the Arctic Region On 16 July, the IISS–US hosted a roundtable discussion on security in the Arctic region with Wegger Christian Strommen, Ambassador of Norway to the United States. Ambassador Strommen highlighted the importance of the Arctic Council and discussed Norway’s role as an important Arctic state.

Steven Simon, Executive Director, IISS–US and Corresponding Director, IISS–Middle East, moderated the discussion.

(l–r): Wegger Christian Strommen, Ambassador of Norway to the United States and Steven Simon, Executive Director, IISS-US and Corresponding Director, IISS–Middle East

US–Russia Relations and the Asia Pacific As both the United States and Russia move to participate in the global economic and political shift to Asia, the question remains as to how these two powers can cooperate in the Asia-Pacific region. Despite a long history of animosity and conflict between Russia and the US, some experts believe the region is ripe for cooperation between the two powers.

‘Prospects for U.S.-Russia Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific Region’, the third paper of the Working Group on the Future of US–Russia Relations,

Dr Samuel Charap, Ogel Barabanov, Jeffry Mankoff and Gilbert Rozman

a paradiplomatic effort that IISS Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia Dr Samuel Charap helps lead, was presented at IISS–US on 26 July. The paper’s

was something of a scandal in Moscow. He discussed the impact of inter-

authors, Jeffrey Mankoff and Oleg Barabanov, participated in a panel chaired

national factors, such as the eurozone crisis and hydrocarbon trade, in the

by Charap, with Professor Gilbert Rozman of Princeton University serving as

construction and implementation of the Russian ‘go East’ policy. Agreeing

a discussant.

with Mankoff, Barabanov stated that the ‘China factor’ was perhaps the big-

Dr Mankoff, Deputy Director of the Russia and Eurasia Program at the

gest in the Russian government’s decision to focus on its eastern flank, with

Center for Strategic and International Studies, began the discussion with an

the rapprochement between the two countries leading to improved relations

argument for cooperation. Asia, he said, is less subject to the intense US–

between Russia and other Asian nations, such as Japan and South Korea.

Russia rivalry than other regions of the world; their respective ‘pivots’ are

Barabanov concluded with a remark that the Asia-Pacific region could be a

an opportunity to work together. Russia, however, remains fairly ambivalent

vector for cooperation between the United States and Russia.

about Asia, with a mostly rhetorical pivot of little substance; as such, Russia

Discussant Gilbert Rozman, professor at Princeton University, praised the

does not factor into US policy on the region. This obstacle, in hand with com-

report for its timeliness in a period of tense relations between the US and

plex Sino-Russian and Sino-US relations, could potentially complicate any

Russia. However, Rozman focused on Russia’s relationship with China,

cooperation in the region. However, he argued, both parties, despite their

and the extent to which he believes Russia has become a ‘satellite’ of China.

stark differences and a distinct chill in relations, should work together to

Rozman stated that Russia needs China more than China needs Russia, which

build a more effective multilateral structure in the Asia-Pacific region.

adds to its strategic weakness in the region, along with a lack of multilateral

Dr Barabanov, professor at the Moscow State Institute for International Relations, stressed that, for Russia, its absence in the US ‘rebalancing’ to Asia

integration.

Watch the discussion at http://bit.ly/19zimee.

The Philippines–US Relationship in a Changing Strategic Landscape On 10 September, the IISS–US hosted a roundtable discussion with Jose L. Cuisia, Jr., Ambassador of the Republic of the Philippines to the United States, about recent developments in the Philippines–US relationship as well as the changing strategic landscape and maritime-security issues in Southeast Asia.

Ambassador Cuisia spoke about the importance of the Philippines–US relationship in Southeast Asia from a military, security and economics standpoint and he also explained the Philippines’ stance on maritime territorial disputes in the South China Sea. 14

|

SEPTEMBER 2013

Jose L. Cuisia, Jr., Ambassador of the Republic of the Philippines to the United States

IISS News

IISS–us

IISS–SAIS Merrill Center Young Strategists Programme in Security and Geo-economics

Participants and Faculty in the Young Strategists Programme

From 29 July to 2 August, the IISS, in partnership with the Philip Merrill Center

politics of extractive industries; development and counterterrorism; climate

for Strategic Studies at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced

change; terrorism, governance and economic development; food security;

International Studies (SAIS), hosted the Young Strategists Programme in Security

financial and fiscal crises; the rise of China; and South American defence inte-

& Geo-economics at the Rockefeller Foundation Bellagio Center in Bellagio, Italy.

gration. The participants also convened in plenary sessions for discussions led

The programme brought together 20 young policy leaders from six

by faculty members.

continents to examine the relationships among geopolitics, economics,

In a post-conference questionnaire, one participant responded that ‘the

development and security. Participants were chosen through a competitive

bonds established with other young strategists’ was the best part of the con-

application process to which over 300 people applied. The only requirement

ference. Perhaps even more importantly, these young leaders were taken out

was that participants could not turn 36 during the 2013 calendar year. Faculty

of their usual echo chambers and exposed to new ideas. International security

were chosen from IISS and SAIS staff and networks.

specialists and economic development professionals work on overlapping

The participants were split into two groups: one focused on geo-economics

and intersecting issues, but do not spend enough time working together. One

and economic development, the other on geopolitics and security. Each par-

participant responded, ‘in Washington I talk to the same people every day.

ticipant prepared a 20-page paper which they presented to their respective

Here, I am exposed to an entirely new group of people who think differently

groups. Topics addressed included economic inequality in conflict; the geo-

about the same sorts of questions I care about.’

IISS–US Policy Makers Series Cyber security is the ‘biggest national security threat that America is not quite yet ready to handle’, Congressman Mike Rogers, Chairman of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, stated during a 22 July Policy Makers Series event at the IISS–US. In a presentation centered on the need to protect the United States’ economy from cyber attacks, Congressman Rogers stressed that the security dialogue should address this grave threat to American economic innovation, competitiveness, private security and critical

Congressman Mike Rogers

infrastructure.

The Congressman outlined several ways the United States is vulnerable

Korea and Iran, the security implications for the United States have grown

to cyber attack, such as disruptive hacktivism, private information theft and

as well. Intellectual-property theft cuts short the ability of private business to

fraud, large-scale information theft by organised criminal groups and intellec-

innovate and expand, while allowing American technologies and ideas to be

tual-property theft. Each of these offers the potential for significant financial

used by other states for their own economic benefit. Meanwhile, the United

gain by the aggressor, and represents, ‘the biggest illegal transfer of wealth in

States’ critical infrastructure remains at risk, a cyber attack on the electric grid

history’, to which there are no consequences.

or other vital utilities used daily by the American people could cause domes-

Though cyber crime instigated by small groups is a real financial threat

tic chaos on an unprecedented scale.

to individuals and the economy, the Congressman repeated that the grow-

Congressman Rogers concluded by noting that the cyber domain currently

ing nature of cyber attacks as a tool of nation states is a worrying trend. He

provides enormous benefits to malicious actors with limited consequences for

noted that with the vast human, financial and technical resources available

illicit activity. Complacency will only serve to further put the United States’

to states, private businesses are at a great disadvantage. If a state wishes to

economy and national security at risk, he said, and though the issue is large

infiltrate a private network, it has the resources and capacity to continue to

and difficult to grasp, it must be done. He argued that the US cannot accept

attack until it eventually infiltrates that network. As states have increased

‘that one open window in a very dangerous neighborhood’.

their ability to wage cyber war, particularly states like China, Russia, North IISS News

Watch the discussion at http://bit.ly/170C03N. SEPTEMBER 2013 | 15

IISS–MIDDLE EAST

The Manama Dialogue Sherpa Meeting On 8 September the IISS–Middle East held a preparatory Sherpa meeting for the 9th IISS Regional Security Summit: the Manama Dialogue. This multilateral meeting convened military leaders, senior national-security officials and key IISS experts from across the globe, including representatives from the GCC, the United States, the United Kingdom and France at the IISS–Middle East headquarters in Manama, Bahrain. Sherpa delegates debated key regional security challenges, such as the crisis in Syria, Iran’s new political environment, as well as Gulf security and the enduring commitment from Western states. The Sherpa meeting plays a key role in the Manama Dialogue process as senior diplomats and military officers refine their arguments and positions on the more sensitive issues of regional security in preparation for the participation of their ministerial delegations at the annual summit in December.

Dr Al Zayani and Major-General Faris Al Mazrouei

Sherpa delegates deliberate key regional security challenges

IISS and BDF Cyber War Seminar On 17 September, the IISS and the Bahrain Defence Force (BDF) hosted a sem-

element of modern war. The participants discussed its impact on the collec-

inar in Bahrain to discuss the modern threat of cyber warfare. This seminar

tion and analysis of information, as well as the influence the threat of cyber

was the first meeting of the IISS-BDF Cyber Security Series, a series of brief-

warfare has on energy and industry. Highlighting the vulnerability of every

ings and workshops that will be examining key issues of cyber security and

nation, the seminar further explored the role of social media and the ability to

their implications for the region.

use such networks in cyber warfare.

The ‘Cyber War’ seminar featured an elite group of cyber experts and

Nigel Inkster stated, ‘in an ICT network-enabled world the ability of

military chiefs including: Nigel Inkster, Director of Transnational Threats and

states to exercise power effectively is critical to ensure national security and

Political Risk, IISS; Rafal Rohozinski, Principal, The SecDev Group; Dr John

to pursue national advantage. Through the IISS-BDF Cyber Security Series,

Sheldon, Founder and Principal Consultant, The Torridon Group; and Chris

the IISS aims to make available to the BDF world-class expertise and thought

Spirito, International Cyber Lead, the MITRE Corporation.

leadership to assist Bahrain’s security and defence communities in devel-

In examining the global and regional security implications of cyber warfare, the seminar emphasised the significance of cyber war as an essential 16

|

SEPTEMBER 2013

oping concepts and capabilities that will enable them to address challenges within the Gulf region and beyond.’

IISS News

IISS–MIDDLE EAST

Discussion Meeting: Syria’s Uprising On 29 July, the IISS–Middle East hosted a Ramadan Majlis to discuss Emile Hokayem’s new Adelphi book, Syria’s Uprising and the Fracturing of the Levant, which he described as ‘a sober analysis of the situation in Syria and the product of a lengthy analytical struggle’. Hokayem’s extensive research, involving meetings with senior associates of President Bashar al-Assad, rebel commanders, opposition leaders in exile and foreign government officials, led to some stark conclusions on the impact of the conflict so far.

Hokayem argued firstly that the conflict ‘is marking the Levant in ways that only the creation of the State of Israel in 1948 has’, and secondly, that the

Mark Allworthy and Emile Hokayem

conflict has already gained greater significance than the Iraq War at a humanitarian, regional and strategic level.

metries, largely involving the role of Iran and its associates; currently the

Hokayem explained the dynamics of the current conflict by going back

pro-Assad forces are benefiting from Hizbullah and the Quds Force’s strategic

to the changes in the constituency of the Syrian regime that took place after

experience and patience, which the Gulf states supporting the rebels cannot

Assad assumed power. He also argued that the fault lines of the conflict today

offer. Although Assad has proved resilient and adaptable, Hokayem says that

have their origin in the gradual decay of the Syrian state, which began long

claims the regime is ‘winning’ are overstated; Syria is in a strategic stalemate.

before the first demonstrations of the uprising in March 2011. Hokayem’s predictions for the future path of the conflict were based on some key asym-

The meeting was chaired by Mark Allworthy, Managing Director IISS–Middle East.

A New Iraqi Civil War? The renewed violence in Iraq this year is the biggest threat to the country’s stability and economic development since the post-invasion violence started to decline in 2008, IISS Consulting Senior Fellow for the Middle East Dr Toby Dodge said during a talk at IISS–Middle East on 10 September. Some 3,200 Iraqis were killed in suicide bombings and other attacks in the first six months of 2013, the United Nations has estimated. Another 1,000 died in July.

Most press commentary has explained this rising violence either as an inevitable result of the American military withdrawal from Iraq in 2011 or as a spillover from the civil war in neighbouring Syria.

Dr Dodge thought there was a kernel of truth in both accounts, but neither told the full story.

Instead, he argued that sectarian violence had principally returned because nationalist, secular and Sunni Iraqis were being politically excluded, and al-Qaeda was taking advantage of their disaffection.

For example, al-Qaeda in Iraq used a violent government crackdown on

Dr Toby Dodge and Michael Elleman

opposition protests in April 2013 as a chance to claim that it was protecting Iraqi Sunnis.

Some Iraqis felt that their investment at the ballot box in the last national

recounted how Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki had accrued yet more power to his office.

elections in 2010 ‘was neglected’ and that ‘they were subject to state repres-

National elections next year would be critical, Dr Dodge said. The two

sion’, so they gave their backing to this radical, violent group. This provoked a

main Shia parties could strike a deal to keep Maliki out of power, which they

reaction from Shia militias, which Dr Dodge described as the most worrisome

failed to do in 2010. But it is more likely that Maliki will have amassed enough

turn of events in Iraq for several years.

power to shape the 2014 election in his favour, further plunging Iraq into a

Dr Dodge has written extensively about Iraq’s steady move towards a new authoritarianism, including in his 2013 IISS Adelphi book Iraq: From War to a New Authoritarianism. Speaking at the IISS–Middle East office in Manama, he IISS News

cycle of sectarian-fuelled violence.

The discussion was moderated by Michael Elleman, Senior Fellow for Regional Security Cooperation, IISS–Middle East.

SEPTEMBER 2013 | 17

iiss fuller ton lec ture

Fullerton Lecture: Australian Foreign Minister

Senator Bob Carr

Dr Tim Huxley

In his IISS–Fullerton Lecture on 9 July, Australian Minister for Foreign Affairs

Senator Carr highlighted not only Canberra’s October 2012 White Paper

Senator Bob Carr emphasised that Australia is not just within Asia, it is part of

on ‘Australia in the Asian Century’, but also Lee Kuan Yew’s congratulations

Asia. Stopping in Singapore as part of a tour of Southeast Asia (his next stop

to former Australian Prime Minister Gough Whitlam, almost 40 years ago, on

being Myanmar’s capital, Naypyidaw), the minister praised the role of the

the abandonment of the ‘White Australia’ policy. ‘Australia now’, the minister

Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in regional decision-making,

said, is ‘globally engaged, focused on Asia, enmeshed in the forums of the

and said Australia welcomed Asia’s economic and social transformation.

region, self-consciously multicultural, confident of its place in our neighbour-

However, he warned that the positive momentum could be disturbed by financial pitfalls, social unrest and territorial conflict.

hood, and a free trader.’

On a more cautionary note, he identified three areas challenging the

Senator Carr said that while in earlier times Australia had naturally

‘happy narrative’ in the region: ‘old fashioned’ territorial disputes (such as

looked towards the English-speaking world – and that this legacy remained

those in the South China Sea), ethno-religious tension (such as in Myanmar)

– Australia’s growing Asian credentials were equally, and perhaps in the

and the ‘middle-income trap’ (with national economies being cheated of the

long-term more, significant. ‘Picking up the phone to Jakarta, Singapore and

benefits of market liberalisation and economic reform).

Tokyo has become the norm, embedded in the way we do diplomacy. As it was decades ago, and still is, with London and Washington,’ he said.

Senator Carr’s lecture and subsequent discussion also highlighted the importance for Australia of the Sino-US relationship. Australia is a military ally of the United States, but China is its biggest economic partner. Nevertheless, the minister insisted that Australia, like Singapore, should not have to choose between China and the United States. He added that Canberra ‘takes no position’ on any territorial claims in the South China Sea. The lecture at the Fullerton Hotel, Singapore, was chaired by Dr Tim Huxley, Executive Director, IISS–Asia.

Watch the lecture and read the transcript at http://bit.ly/1h0RJ4A.

Participants during the Q&A at the Fullerton Forum

18

|

SEPTEMBER 2013

IISS News

south asia / ASIA PACIFIC

US and India: ‘Rice and Kerry’ Diplomacy? one of potential strategic partnership’. The high point was the 2008 bilateral civil nuclear deal under which India agreed to separate its civil and military nuclear facilities, and the United States agreed to work towards full civil nuclear cooperation.

Nayar agreed that the India–US relationship has been ‘one of the most transformational of our time’.

He said India and the US are hoping to develop their ties: ‘both sides have been looking at something, not quite on the scale of the nuclear deal, but something that would be a symbol of the relationship, and how it is going to go forward.’

‘My expectation is that permission to export LNG [liquefied natural gas] will be one of the elements that may come out,’ he said.

The other area likely to be discussed is the defence relationship; this may K.P. Nayar and Rahul Roy-Chaudhury

include a ‘unique proposal’ under which US defence equipment would be loaned to India.

What is in store for the US–India relationship, with Indian elections and criti-

He noted that Rice had been a crucial element in the development of the

cal regional security challenges, and new interlocutors on the US side in the

two countries’ ties: ‘in my estimation, the one person who has singularly

form of National Security Advisor Susan Rice, Secretary of State John Kerry

contributed, as an individual, more than anybody else to the transformation

and Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel?

of Indo-US relations is Condoleezza Rice,’ he said, first as national security

To explore this question, Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, IISS Senior Fellow for

adviser to President George W. Bush, then later as his secretary of state.

South Asia, invited K.P. Nayar, chief diplomatic editor and correspondent for

He felt that for the remainder of Obama’s term, the person to take on this

the Americas at India’s Telegraph newspaper, to give a talk on US–India rela-

role would be Susan Rice. Remarking on her time as US permanent repre-

tions on 9 September. Nayar – who remarked that as a journalist he could not

sentative to the United Nations, he observed that: ‘it’s only the resolutions or

resist a snappy headline – titled it ‘Will India’s “Rice and Kerry” Diplomacy

president’s statements that people remember, but the negotiations and the

in Washington take off?’

lobbying talks … it’s amazing how much Susan Rice contributed to India and

As Roy-Chaudhury noted, the India–US relationship has ‘undergone a paradigm shift, from a period of concern over the US role in South Asia, to

the US working together in the Security Council’.

Listen to the discussion at http://bit.ly/19zimee.

China’s Evolving Relationship with North Korea

Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga, Dr Adam Cathcart, Adam Ward and Dr Lora Saalman

Despite the much-publicised optimism for a significant shift in Chinese

sive policy of denuclearisation if such a move would threaten the stability of

policy towards North Korea following the country’s third nuclear test, there

the Kim regime. New president Xi Jinping is busy with much-needed domestic

is little pressure from within the Chinese system for such a change in policy.

reforms and is unlikely to expend political capital to gamble on experimenting

This was a conclusion of a 9 July IISS discussion meeting organised by the

with such a complicated foreign-policy issue. Although the People’s Liberation

Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Programme with Dr Lora Saalman,

army likely has an internally divided view of North Korea’s continued value as

an Associate at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy, Dr Adam

a strategic buffer, the lingering dominance of the army likely delays any overall

Cathcart, Lecturer in Asian History, Queens University Belfast and editor of

shift in policy. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs is the actor most likely to support

SinoNK.com, and IISS Research Assistant Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga.

a change in policy, but it is the weakest actor of this top tier and has been losing

Panellists explained that the most important actors in China's decisionmaking on North Korea policy have little incentive to advocate a more aggresIISS News

influence over North Korea policy since 2009, the panellists said.

Listen to the discussion at http://bit.ly/170rCJz. SEPTEMBER 2013 | 19

non-pr oliferation and disarmament / discussion mee ting

Deciphering Iran’s Elections On 12 July, a month after Hassan Rouhani was elected as president of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the IISS hosted a panel on ‘deciphering the Iranian elections’. The panel included Dr Saeed Barzin, an Iran analyst with the BBC Persian Service and the BBC Monitoring service, IISS Research Associate Dina Esfandiary and Azadeh Moaveni, a former Middle East correspondent for Time magazine. The panel was chaired by Adam Ward, IISS Director of Studies.

Dr Saeed Barzin, Dina Esfandiary, Adam Ward and Azadeh Moaveni

Panellists agreed that the result of the elections was a surprise for everyone.

With this vote, Iranians made clear that they were tired of the country’s state

ent message and likely be more forthcoming in talks with the West. Moaveni

of affairs. Dr Barzin explained that the elections were an ‘act of compromise’

focused on the poor state of the Iranian economy and explained that the new

where Iranians were asking for change without risk. The entire process high-

president would not be able to make significant changes rapidly because his

lighted the maturity of the political establishment in Iran and strengthened

‘hands would be tied’ by the hardliners. Improving Iran’s economic outlook

the Supreme Leader’s position. Esfandiary commented that it was unlikely

will be a lengthy process that requires political will and patience.

that Iran’s foreign policy would change much, but it would carry a differ-

Listen to the discussion at http://bit.ly/16qEmeQ.

IISS Regional Workshop on UN Sanctions on North Korea: Prospects and Problems On 4 September, the IISS convened a workshop on ‘UN Sanctions on North Korea: Prospects and Problems’ in Dubai. The workshop, part of a series of events on regional outreach and engagement on effective UN sanctions implementation, brought together relevant private-sector participants and officials

Dubai workshop

from the Middle East. The workshop, hosted by the IISS in conjunction with the UN Panel of Experts on sanctions on North Korea, was chaired by Mark

Panel of Experts also provided an overview of the measures that must be

Fitzpatrick, Director of the Non-proliferation and Disarmament Programme

taken in order to comply with UN sanctions and the risks associated with

at the IISS. Participants discussed how UN sanctions on North Korea are being

infringing on them. Various approaches were assessed, including transport

implemented, best practices thereof, and the difficulties that governments and

and shipping (interdiction), financial, export and import-related measures, as

commercial entities in the Middle East have experienced in this regard. The

well as regional approaches to enforcement of UN sanctions on North Korea.

Discussion Meeting - The Plutonium Track: Implications for the Completion of Iran’s Heavy Water Reactor at Arak On 11 September, the IISS hosted a discussion meeting with Dr Ephraim Asculai, Senior Research Fellow, Institute for National Security Studies, on the development of Iran’s heavy water reactor at Arak. The meeting was chaired

by Mark Fitzpatrick, Director of the Non-proliferation and Disarmament Programme at the IISS. Although all eyes have been on Iran’s uranium-enrichment programme, Dr Asculai explained that if Iran continues down the current plutonium path, it could probably produce a plutonium nuclear explosive device by the end of 2016. This timeline holds, he said, despite the delayed start-up of the Arak heavy water reactor.

Mark Fitzpatrick and Dr Ephraim Asculai

Concerned about the proliferation potential of a 40MW reactor, which would be able to produce weapons-grade plutonium sufficient for 1.5 weap-

between 1988 and 1992, but does not today have a reprocessing capability.

ons a year, the UN Security Council in 2006 mandated that Iran suspend

Detecting the construction of a reprocessing plant (large buildings with thick

construction at Arak. For weapons use, the plutonium must be separated from

walls) would be relatively straightforward. The IAEA could potentially detect

the rest of the spent fuel through a relatively straightforward chemical separa-

gases emitted by the plant, but only if it had enhanced access.

tion operation called reprocessing. Iran carried out reprocessing experiments 20

|

SEPTEMBER 2013

The video and report of the discussion can be accessed here: http://bit.ly/18ZiqSk. IISS News

discussion mee ting

The Muslim Brotherhood and the Arab Spring

Dr Abdul Mawgoud Dardery, Professor Madawi al-Rasheed, Daniel Benjamin, Steven Simon, Dr Thomas Pierret and Dr Omar Ashour

Since the Arab Spring erupted, the Muslim Brotherhood has emerged as a ‘sig-

Gadhafi, there was a sense that arms would guarantee political rights, not the

nificant presence’ in contemporary Middle Eastern politics. On 10 September,

constitution, posing long-term security challenges.

four panellists discussed the role and impact of the organisation in different

Dr Thomas Pierret, author of Religion and State in Syria, described how 2011 was a ‘long-waited opportunity’ for the Brotherhood to enter the politi-

countries across the region.

Co-chair Daniel Benjamin explained how, from the late 1920s to two

cal system in Syria after decades of exclusion. The organisation quickly

years ago, the Brotherhood was viewed as a mysterious and often conspira-

became influential in the Syrian National Council; the opposition was highly

torial organisation. With branches in different countries, it was thought to

fragmented and the Brotherhood was better organised and enjoyed support

be monolithic. However, he described the Brotherhood’s rise as a ‘highly

from Qatar and Turkey. Since then, however, the Brotherhood in Syria has

diverse phenomenon’, ranging from An-Nahda in Tunisia which had ‘kept

been debased, facing challenges from other powerful groups, mostly Salafist,

the country on an even keel’ to Egypt, where the largest regional branch of

who are increasingly better funded and organised.

the Brotherhood was now essentially in opposition, having been ousted from

Professor Madawi al-Rasheed, an expert on the Muslim Brotherhood in Saudi Arabia, explained why the monarchy views the Brotherhood as a

power unexpectedly.

Dr Abdul Mawgoud Dardery, Foreign Affairs Spokesman for the Freedom

threat, both in terms of regional and internal politics. The organisation is a

and Justice Party in Egypt, described developments there as a journey

‘real social movement’, using the language of modernity, human rights and

towards freedom, human dignity and social justice, after 60 years of military

engagement of democratic process in its rhetoric. She noted that two hours

dictatorship. In his view, state terrorism should have been condemned by

after Muhammad Morsi was removed from power, Saudi Arabia congratu-

the ‘civilised world’ – the West could not turn a blind eye to crimes against

lated the interim president and promised $7 billion in aid to Egypt; the Saudis

humanity committed by the Egyptian government.

were fully supporting the coup.

Dr Omar Ashour, author of The De-Radicalization of Jihadists: Transforming

This meeting, part of a wider conference on the Muslim Brotherhood,

Armed Islamist Movements and From Bad Cop to Good Cop: The Challenge of

was co-chaired by Daniel Benjamin, Director, Dickey Center for International

Security Sector Reform in Egypt, explained how the Brotherhood in Libya shared

Understanding, Dartmouth College and Steven Simon, Executive Director,

a ‘history of oppression’ with other regional branches, with crackdowns and

IISS–US and Corresponding Director, IISS–Middle East. The meeting took

many members in exile. However, the religious rhetoric in Libya did not

place at Arundel House, London.

attract voters like it did in Egypt. He explained how, since the overthrow of

Watch the discussion at http://bit.ly/19CeMQh.

Survival: Global Politics and Strategy Latest issue

IISS News

In the October–November issue of Survival,

relations and Steven Simon discusses America’s limited power in Egypt. Also

Nigel Inkster analyses Sino-American compe-

in the issue: Shashank Joshi and Aaron Stein on emerging drone nations; Nick

tition in space and cyberspace, David P. Calleo

Bisley and Andrew Phillips on US strategic geography in Asia; and Brendan

argues for a new narrative in transatlantic

Taylor on China’s relations with North Korea.

SEPTEMBER 2013 | 21

Transnational Threats and Political Risk

The Gordian Knot of Organised Crime, Violent Conflict and Human Security During a discussion on 30 July, Dr Vanda Felbab-Brown, Senior Fellow at the Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence in the foreign policy programme at the Brookings Institution in Washington DC, addressed the IISS audience on the challenges posed by organised crime and illicit economies.

Usefully, she proposed a number of concrete measures law enforcement prac-

Dr Vanda Felbab-Brown

titioners and policymakers should adopt to contain organised crime and limit its impact on security, society and the economy. Dr Felbab-Brown argued

as engagement would lead to unwanted results unless the balance of power is

that the ultimate goal of law enforcement should be to turn criminals into

first changed. Finally, adding a word of caution, Dr Felbab-Brown reminded

‘good criminals’, i.e. groups and individuals who do not use violence, try to

the audience – and law enforcement practitioners – that when it comes to

corrupt the state or provide services for local communities in order to buy

transactional crime there is a limit to the extent to which it can be reduced,

legitimacy. She also advised against entering into negotiations with criminals

even in Western Europe.

Adelphi Book Launch in Mexico

Adelphi Book Launch in Colombia

Cesar Martinelli, Nigel Inkster, Alejandro Hernández, and Rafael Fernández de Castro

Fabio Sánchez, Nigel Inkster and Daniel Mejia

Nigel Inkster, Director of Transnational Threats and Political Risk, launched the

The Adelphi book Drugs, Insecurity and Failed States: The Problems of Prohibition

Spanish-language version of the Adelphi book Drugs, Insecurity and Failed States:

was also launched in Bogota, Colombia, on 21 August. The Spanish-language

The Problems of Prohibition (Drogas, Inseguridad y Estados Fallidos: Los Problemas de

version of the Adelphi by Nigel Inkster and Virginia Comolli, Research

la Prohibición) in Mexico, on 19 August. The Autonomous Technological Institute

Associate for Transnational Threats, was a partnership between the IISS and the

of Mexico (ITAM) hosted the event, which also featured Rafael Fernández de

Universidad de Los Andes. Nigel Inkster spoke at Los Andes, alongside Daniel

Castro, Chair, Department of International Studies, and Cesar Martinelli, Dean

Mejía, Director of the Centre for Studies on Security and Drugs (CESED).

of Economics, Law and Social Sciences, as commentators.

Inkster argued that current policy choices

The audience and participants discussed the close relationship between

for governments aiming to reduce drug traf-

Mexico, which faces a series of security challenges due to drug trafficking, and

ficking are unlikely to result in a significant

the largest drug-consumption market in the world, the United States. Nigel

decrease in supply for consumer states. He

Inkster emphasised one of the conclusions from the book: the need for greater

mentioned the fight against drugs in Colombia

participation of countries that are major consumer markets for drugs, to pro-

as an example. The country has achieved the

vide more support to states affected by violence. The speakers from ITAM

best results in reducing narcotics-related vio-

echoed this preoccupation, saying that the long-standing position in favour of

lence, to the point where it can be seen as a

prohibition has meant a transfer of costs to countries along trafficking routes,

law-enforcement issue rather than a national-

such as Mexico and its neighbours in Central America. These states have been

security one. As a result, however, drug

overwhelmed by the influx of drug-trafficking organisations, with enough

production and trafficking simply moved to

arms and cash to challenge security forces and governmental authority.

neighbouring countries.

22

|

SEPTEMBER 2013

IISS News

Defence and Military Analysis

The Endgame in Afghanistan British Generals in Blair’s Wars Brigadier (Retd) Ben Barry, IISS Senior Fellow

Sir Hew Strachan, one of the editors of British

for Land Warfare, gave a talk on 11 July on

Generals in Blair’s Wars, was joined by General

the prospects for the conflict in Afghanistan.

(Retd) Sir Nick Parker, Deputy Commanding

Barry’s assessments and insights on the

General of Multi-National Force–Iraq in

factors that would influence the future of

2005–6 and Deputy Commander of the ISAF in

Afghanistan were informed by his recent trip

Afghanistan in 2009–10, and Desmond Bowen,

to Kabul, the centrepiece of which was observ-

former policy director of the UK Ministry of

ing President Hamid Karzai and NATO

Defence, on 17 July to discuss the challenges

Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen

of military command during this decade.

announce ‘Milestone 13’, the beginning of the

Brigadier (Retd) Ben Barry

final stage of the Afghan transition.

Attended by many of the officers who

Sir Hew Strachan

had contributed essays to British Generals in

In his talk, Barry explored the continuing handover of security from

Blair’s Wars, the presentations and points made from the floor illustrated that

NATO to Afghan leadership by 31 December 2014, analysed the progress of

the growing complexity of modern war increased the challenges faced by com-

the Afghan government’s talks with the Taliban, and provided an in-depth

manders. It also showed that the unpopularity of the wars in Afghanistan and

assessment of the military dimensions of the transition, about which he was

Iraq, the UK’s position as junior partner to the US, inadequate understand-

cautiously optimistic. However, he conceded that the great question mark

ing in Whitehall and poor coordination of UK strategy created unexpected

was long-term political stability and legitimacy. The discussion was chaired

demands on UK forces and commanders. The meeting was chaired by

by Douglas Barrie, IISS Senior Fellow for Military Aerospace.

Brigadier (Retd) Ben Barry, IISS Senior Fellow for Land Warfare.

Listen to the discussion at http://bit.ly/1aa51dc.

Watch the discussion at http://bit.ly/18fTzgF.

The Revolution in Battlefield Medicine and Healthcare for the Wounded On 18 July Brigadier Chris Parker, Royal Army Medical Corps, led a discus-

Oak Hospital in the UK, RAF aero-

sion meeting on the reasons for, and implications of, the improved survival

medical evacuation flights in adapted

rates for seriously injured troops. Although recent combat has been just as

C-17 transports and the use of multi-

intense as in previous land conflicts, and with the added threat of improvised

disciplinary teams of experts have also

explosive devices, the number of soldiers surviving serious injury has dra-

greatly improved both survival and

matically increased.

recovery of seriously injured troops.

Brigadier Parker discussed how the unpopularity of the Iraq and Afghan

The discussion was chaired by Brigadier

wars made reducing troop casualties a political imperative; this resulted

(Retd) Ben Barry, IISS Senior Fellow for

in the development of improved first aid, with high-tech dressings and

Land Warfare.

highly-qualified trauma teams flying to the casualties. Video links with Selly

Brigadier Chris Parker

Listen to the discussion at http://bit.ly/17OY1SF.

The Impact of Legal Trends on Future Land Operations As the first event in a longer study programme run by the British Army, the IISS hosted a two-part seminar on 22 July on the changing legal environment of land conflict. Fifty serving British Army officers were joined by legal experts to discuss how changes in international and domestic laws might affect future military operations around the world. Topics addressed in the seminar included the implications of technological advances, potential adversary approaches and the nature of human rights norms and laws.

The event showed how the well-developed Law of Armed Conflict was now being supplemented by the much less mature body of human-rights law.

This was already having consequences for the British military and reinforced the importance of getting basic military skills, such as prisoner handling, right. The seminars were chaired by Adam Ward, IISS Director of Studies, and Nigel Inkster, IISS Director for Transnational Threats and Political Risk.

Listen to the discussion at http://bit.ly/1dvB6hs.

IISS News

Delegates at the seminar on the changing legal environment of land conflict

SEPTEMBER 2013 | 23

IISS–OBER OI LEC TURE / pRESS LAUNCH

IISS–Oberoi Lecture: Recent Trends in the Global Energy, Oil and Gas Economy Dr Hussain Ibrahim Saleh al-Shahristani, Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister for Energy, spoke on ‘Recent Trends in the Global Energy, Oil and Gas Economy’.

‘Iraq will be the main source of growth for global oil supply over the next

Attendees at the lecture included Mukesh Ambani, Chairman and Managing Director, Reliance Industries Ltd; DK Sarraf, Managing Director, ONGC Videsh Ltd; RS Butola, Chairman, IOC Ltd; Dr Urijt Patel, Deputy Governor, Reserve Bank of India; Prakash Shah, former Indian ambassador to Iraq; PMS Prasad, Executive Director, RIL and MV Kotwal, President - Heavy Enginnering, L&T

decade or two’, he said as he elucidated Iraq’s perspective on energy to lead-

Noting that India’s oil demand is expected to rise by 4–5% annually,

ers of India’s business and financial community at the IISS–Oberoi Lecture in

Dr Shahristani said that India could depend on Iraq to meet its increasing

Mumbai on 14 August.

demand for oil. He also underscored the need to build a long-term part-

Dr Shahristani’s lecture highlighted that by 2040 global energy demand

nership between India and Iraq by exploiting the many new investment

would be about 30% higher than at present. Unconventional sources of gas

opportunities in Iraq, especially in the energy sector. He said that while Iraq’s

would account for a greater part of global oil production than is the case now.

current oil production was at 3.3 million barrels per day, it is likely to increase

The revitalisation of Iraq’s energy sector is crucial for the country’s recon-

to 4–5 million b/d by 2015 and 9 million b/d by 2020. Invoking India and Iraq’s

struction and development, said Dr Shahristani, given that oil generates over

historical ties, he urged Indian companies to invest in Iraq’s efforts to rebuild

90% of government revenues and accounts for about half of GDP.

and expand its energy infrastructure.

Strategic Survey 2013 Press Launch

World affairs are currently characterised by short-

Simon and Adam Ward.

term management and a lack of strategy that derives

The Russian proposal to disarm Syria of its chemical weapons received

partly from a failure of leadership, according to Dr

much attention. Panellists warned, however, that implementing the Russian

John Chipman, Chief Executive and Director-General

proposal would be a difficult and lengthy process. Fitzpatrick, Director of the

of the IISS.

Non-proliferation and Disarmament Programme, said: ‘there has never been

Speaking on 12 September at the London press

a situation where the international community has attempted to secure, seize

launch of Strategic Survey 2013: The Annual Review of

and destroy weapons of mass destruction during an ongoing conflict.’ In both

World Affairs, Chipman observed that ‘the abiding

Iraq and Libya, the process had taken years: Libya’s mustard gas had not yet

impression of international affairs in 2013 was of a

been completely destroyed. However, Fitzpatrick said Russia deserved credit

constant flow of events that political leaders, governments, international organisations, opinion-formers and people of all kinds were doing their best simply to manage. It was the year of living tactically.’

for getting Syria to admit to possessing chemical weapons.

Hokayem, Senior Fellow for Regional Security, said the chances of a political solution in Syria had diminished. Following the failure of the international

‘Frustration was regularly expressed about the insolubility of conflicts, the

community to agree on a military response to the 21 August chemical-weapons

iterative management of international tensions and the quick fixes that at best

attack, he said ‘the fighting is going to increase massively and we will prob-

bought time for other unsatisfactory approaches,’ Chipman said. ‘This amounted

ably see even more massacres just because there is a sense right now that there

to a loud lament that strategy, let alone “grand strategy”, was now impossible.’

is no outside help coming.’

This was especially true of the handling of events in Syria, which domi-

According to Fitzpatrick, the Syrian conflict was more complicated for

nated the question and answer session. The IISS panel included Alex Nicoll,

Iran than for the West. He described Syria as Iran’s Vietnam, draining Iran’s

Editor of Strategic Survey, Ben Barry, Mark Fitzpatrick, James Hackett, Emile

economic resources and manpower, and creating divisions in Iranian society.

Hokayem, Nigel Inkster, Nicholas Redman, Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, Steven 24

|

SEPTEMBER 2013

Watch the launch at http://bit.ly/19Fc3ob.

IISS News